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Speaker 1: The Big Bets on Campus Podcast podcast podcast. All right,

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Speaker 1: here we go, spreading the court ten seconds of matings.

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Speaker 2: Can just go throwing under the basket, under the basket, it's.

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Speaker 3: The truit for the wind. God pick up a miracle.

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Speaker 3: I sup the water hit that one from the parking lot.

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Speaker 3: What's up the general nation?

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Speaker 4: Welcome to the Big Bets on Campus Podcast presented by

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Speaker 4: Bett MGM. This is the College Basketball Sweet sixteen betting preview.

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Speaker 4: I'm stuck in joining me today. I'm my co host

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Speaker 4: Mike Calburys and BJ Cunningham. Sixteen left. Gentlemen, Mike, you're

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Speaker 4: rocking the horns gear. That's not very supportive of our

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Speaker 4: two remaining futures for the podcast.

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Speaker 3: But how's it going, brother?

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Speaker 1: It's going good. I also so I have a ut future.

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Speaker 1: I think it's probably the most realistic to come in

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Speaker 1: with Creighton kind of sitting there as well. It's good.

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Speaker 1: I'm feeling a lot better. You know, the weekends. As

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Speaker 1: I mentioned on our Monday recap, I guts slapped around

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Speaker 1: a little bit. I basically could not pull a winner

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Speaker 1: from anything over the weekend. Now I'm filled with optimism.

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Speaker 1: I'm looking at these you know, these eight games Thursday

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Speaker 1: and Friday. There's a lot to like. I think there's

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Speaker 1: some contrarian plays out there. There's some overreaction. You mentioned

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Speaker 1: it with some of the recency bias, where you can

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Speaker 1: get wrapped into like one good win all of a sudden,

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Speaker 1: that's who the team truly is, and their resume for

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Speaker 1: three and a half months was fraudulent. So I think

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Speaker 1: there's some interesting angles here. There's some great storylines. The

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Speaker 1: k State Michigan State game, it's like a New York

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Speaker 1: City homecoming for both guards. I think that's really cool.

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Speaker 1: Just in general, I'm excited for these games, and honestly,

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Speaker 1: we talk about this a decent amount just from an

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Speaker 1: overall narrative arc where it's like the first weekend is

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Speaker 1: for the Cinderellas and the second let's like push towards

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Speaker 1: finding who's the actual top team in college basketball from

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Speaker 1: a year where we've basically been lamenting the fact that

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Speaker 1: there has not been a reliable top team. So someone's

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Speaker 1: going to emerge, Someone's going to be playing their best

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Speaker 1: basketball headed into the final four weekends. I'm excited to

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Speaker 1: find out who that is.

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Speaker 4: Yes, sir, well said bj Iowa, not in the second

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Speaker 4: week of yre.

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Speaker 3: You know that how's it going? How's it going?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, obviously is that it's never happened in my lifetime.

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Speaker 3: Thanks for reminding me. Yeah, I'm feeling good.

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Speaker 2: You know, I'm like Mike, I'm filled with optimism here.

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Speaker 2: I think what's kind of interesting and funny is the

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Speaker 2: whole season we said, hey, there's no good team in

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Speaker 2: college basketball. You can't trust anybody, and that's kind of

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Speaker 2: how it played out in the first two rounds. So

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Speaker 2: now we get into the second round, where I don't

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Speaker 2: know if I trust Houston. Like you know, obviously, Alabama's

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Speaker 2: breezed by their two opponents, but they've got a couple

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Speaker 2: really difficult tests coming up. Could Princeton be the second

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Speaker 2: straight team and two years in a row, fifteen seed

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Speaker 2: to make the Elite Eight?

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Speaker 3: Who knows. I'm very excited to see how this all

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Speaker 3: shakes out. All right, Well, let's get it there.

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Speaker 4: We're going to go through all eight games, four on Thursday,

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Speaker 4: four on Friday. Make sure you check out Big Bets

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Speaker 4: on Campus Live also ten thirty one Eastern every day

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Speaker 4: of the weekend, or at least Thursday, Friday, Saturday. But

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Speaker 4: let's start things off on. We'll go chronologically, obviously, we'll

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Speaker 4: start Thursday night with that New York Guard matchup six

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Speaker 4: thirty Eastern on TBS. By the way, I love the

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Speaker 4: fact that we are now starting the first game at

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Speaker 4: six thirty. We're staggering them more, not seven ten, seven

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Speaker 4: to twenty nine like before. We're starting at six thirty

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Speaker 4: with the second one at seven to fifteen, so you

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Speaker 4: got a little less overlap. I completely agree with this

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Speaker 4: decision to do that, so well done to the to

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Speaker 4: the CBS executive team murders making that decision.

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Speaker 3: Anyway, Michigan State two.

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Speaker 4: Point favorite here they did open as an underdog over

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Speaker 4: under one thirty seven and a half. This game will

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Speaker 4: be played in the world's most famous arena, Madison Square Garden. Mike,

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Speaker 4: you mentioned this matchup already, Curious to get your thoughts here.

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Speaker 4: First battle of the New York Guards. Really a good

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Speaker 4: coaching matchup, one we'll coach with much more experience, with

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Speaker 4: two coaches to highly respect here. Good Guards in the

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Speaker 4: garden feels right? What do you see here?

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Speaker 1: So obviously I think this is a hat tip to Izzo.

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Speaker 1: He's got fifty four tournament wins. I think He'll go

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Speaker 1: down as arguably the greatest tournament coach to ever live.

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Speaker 1: He certainly gets the best out of his teams, and

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Speaker 1: that's true of this run as well. Holding USC to

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Speaker 1: sixty two points that's ten points below their season average,

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Speaker 1: holding Marquette to sixty which was nineteen points below their

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Speaker 1: season average. My thought though, is is it a little

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Speaker 1: bit overblown because of the basketball elements, you know, the

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Speaker 1: actual Wilson ball that they were playing with. How much

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Speaker 1: can be attributed to that? Also, you brought up on

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Speaker 1: Monday Kulik was hurt for Marquette, So I think the

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Speaker 1: market's a little bit overextended in terms of how highly

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Speaker 1: they think of Michigan State. At this point, I have

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Speaker 1: this more as a coin flip. I think where it opens,

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Speaker 1: I think is more accurate. So I'm going to play

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Speaker 1: the little bit of value that I believe is baked

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Speaker 1: into this line case State on the money line. I

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Speaker 1: love the way that Noel's playing, you know, at the point,

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Speaker 1: and Kante Johnson as well as someone who can go

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Speaker 1: off potentially for twenty points. And one thing I want

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Speaker 1: to bring up about their big is that he played

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Speaker 1: some of his best basketball in their biggest games against

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Speaker 1: their toughest opponents. When you look at how he played

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Speaker 1: against Kansas, how he played against Texas, he had some

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Speaker 1: really big scoring outbursts. That's what's going to be required here.

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Speaker 1: They can't just be on the k State backcourt.

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Speaker 3: So I'm going to go.

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Speaker 1: Ahead and lean to the wildcat money line here.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm I'm not a believer in this Kansas State team.

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Speaker 4: I faded him the first two rounds without success, unfortunately,

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Speaker 4: especially with Kentucky. But I grated their first game as

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Speaker 4: an eight point win. I mean, Montata State excel free

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Speaker 4: throw shooting team, couldn't make a free throw and obviously

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Speaker 4: couldn't make an open through, but they're not a good

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Speaker 4: three point shooting team.

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Speaker 3: And then you played Kentucky.

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Speaker 4: You know, Antonio Reeves starts out zero of twelve from

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Speaker 4: the field, pretty tough. But I graded that as a

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Speaker 4: one point win for Kentucky.

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Speaker 3: So wasn't too upset with either play.

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Speaker 4: But I agree, like I make Michigan State here a

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Speaker 4: small favorite. Like I still have of State as the

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Speaker 4: twenty seventh best team in the country, and they're outside

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Speaker 4: of the top twenty five. They're three hundred and forty

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Speaker 4: fifth nationally still and has e the metrics away from

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Speaker 4: home metric. I still don't trust them away from Manhattan.

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Speaker 4: You know, Michigan State's playing its best basketball the year

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Speaker 4: cuts ever since that Iowa moutdown. Really, they seem to

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Speaker 4: have rallied and they're peaking at the right time. But

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Speaker 4: I just make them a tiny, small favorite. So like,

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Speaker 4: I can't play them minus two here, I do think

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Speaker 4: that there'll be a lot of runs in this game.

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Speaker 4: Two excellent backcourts. You're gonna see like Noel get hot

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Speaker 4: for a stretch. You'll see Walker get hot for a stretch.

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Speaker 4: So I wouldn't be surprised if there's a couple, you know,

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Speaker 4: eight to ten o spurts either way. So I'll be

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Speaker 4: looking to see if I can get Michigan State live

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Speaker 4: as a nice small to medium sized underdog. I just

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Speaker 4: trust them to make more shots. They're a better shooting team.

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Speaker 4: But and look, they want to slow the game down.

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Speaker 4: But they'll attack and transition when warranted, and if they

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Speaker 4: do so, which I think they will, they'll have success.

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Speaker 4: Kannis states traansition defense is a bit vulnerable, but ultimately,

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Speaker 4: you know, Michigan State wants to slow the game down.

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Speaker 4: Kansas State wants to get up and up and down

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Speaker 4: and run. I tend to trust those teams that want

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Speaker 4: to slow it down more, especially in the tournament in general,

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Speaker 4: but especially as we get later in the rounds. And

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Speaker 4: you know, but but then again, like Kansas State, there

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Speaker 4: are three you know, biggest weaknesses is, you know, on

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Speaker 4: the defensive glass, they can be turned over and they

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Speaker 4: will foul off of Michigan State, partly by design, doesn't

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Speaker 4: really get after the offensive class because they want to

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Speaker 4: get back prevent you from running. They don't really get

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Speaker 4: to the line, and they don't turn you over. So

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Speaker 4: can Michigan State exploit the three primary weaknesses of this

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Speaker 4: Kansas State team?

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Speaker 3: I'm not sure, But yeah.

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Speaker 4: I think Michigan State's gonna win this game. But I

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Speaker 4: don't see any value to how many booking live BJ

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Speaker 4: the soul.

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Speaker 3: Yeah.

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Speaker 4: Another thing is where everyone's hyping this Michigan State team

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Speaker 4: and it's like, well, look what the rest of the

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Speaker 4: Big Ten did. So that's that's the other side of

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Speaker 4: the coin. The Big Ten is obviously not looked strong

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Speaker 4: with Michigan State being the lone team left, so BJ

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Speaker 4: any faith in the one final member of your conference.

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Speaker 2: Uh, yes, and no, like I tend to agree with you,

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Speaker 2: I do. I think the line has settled right around

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Speaker 2: where it should be.

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Speaker 3: The thing about.

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Speaker 2: Kansas State is they're shooting the ball insanely well from

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Speaker 2: inside the arc. Through their first two games against Kentucky

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Speaker 2: and Montana State, who are very good two point defenses,

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Speaker 2: they shot forty nine of seventy three inside the arc.

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Speaker 1: That's sixty seven percent.

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Speaker 3: That's insane.

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Speaker 2: They cannot I believe they cannot keep that up over

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Speaker 2: the course of this tournament. Michigan State does an unbelievable

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Speaker 2: job preventing you get to get to the rim. Only

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Speaker 2: thirty percent of the opponent's shots against Michigan State this

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Speaker 2: season have been at the rim. And against USC they

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Speaker 2: only allowed eighteen points at the rim, and then against

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Speaker 2: Marquette they allowed fourteen points at the rim. So you're

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Speaker 2: taking away essentially one of Kansas State's biggest advantages. And

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Speaker 2: Michigan State they're very mid range and post up reliant,

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Speaker 2: which you know, Kansas State has done a very good

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Speaker 2: job defending mid range jumpers, they're not very good defending

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Speaker 2: in the post.

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Speaker 3: And then the flip side.

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Speaker 2: You know you mentioned the three weaknesses for Kansas State

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Speaker 2: and Michigan State not really being able to exploit them.

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Speaker 2: Michigan State has one of the highest three point percentages

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Speaker 2: in the country, but they have a very very low

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Speaker 2: three point rate, and Kansas State is obviously a very

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Speaker 2: good three point defense. So yeah, I think this line

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Speaker 2: is probably settled right around where it should be. But yeah,

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Speaker 2: I think I'll probably be looking to get in live,

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Speaker 2: potentially on Michigan State, because I don't think Kansas State

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Speaker 2: can keep up shooting this hot from inside the arc.

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Speaker 4: Fair enough, all right, let's go onto the second game,

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Speaker 4: starting at seven to fifteen Eastern on CBS, between Arkansas

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Speaker 4: and Connecticut. Connecticut is a three and a half point

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Speaker 4: favorite over under one forty. I'll let you know that

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Speaker 4: the first bet I made was Connecticut money line against Arkansas.

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Speaker 4: I look, this Arkansas team, maybe up stupid for doubting

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Speaker 4: Muscleman before the.

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Speaker 3: E Lit eight.

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Speaker 4: He's been to the leit eight back to back years.

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Speaker 4: If he wins this game, it'll be three consecutive years.

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Speaker 4: But I think that they got two favorable I bet

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Speaker 4: back to Arkansas last week. Both times, I think they

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Speaker 4: got pretty favorable matchups. But I don't see it this

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Speaker 4: time around against a Connecticut team that, if you go

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Speaker 4: back to February first, gets you a good barometer of

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Speaker 4: how a team is playing overall in the you know,

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Speaker 4: the meat part of the season. Connecticut, perb Tordick, number

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Speaker 4: one in overall adjusted efficiency since February first, been the

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Speaker 4: best team in the country adjusted for opponent, So they're

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Speaker 4: peaking at the right time. And by the way, on

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Speaker 4: that same scale, Arkansas number twenty one for the season.

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Speaker 4: I think they're eighteen and Connecticut is five. So I

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Speaker 4: think this Connecticut team is peaking at the right time.

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Speaker 3: So I like the Huskies. Mike, you agree.

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Speaker 1: I agree at this point. I think Yukon is the

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Speaker 1: advanced metrics starling of this tournament. Evan Maya, shot call

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Speaker 1: Ken Palm. All of them rated as the fourth best

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Speaker 1: team in the country. I think it's well deserved given

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Speaker 1: how elite they are on the glass. And I'm glad

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Speaker 1: you brought up their turnovers. They said they turn it

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Speaker 1: over fifteen times. And Arkansas gets their running game going,

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Speaker 1: gets easy transition buckets at the rim, they'll be able

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Speaker 1: to smooth out some of those roles that they're going

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Speaker 1: to go on offensively. But when you look at Yukon

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Speaker 1: in the last four games, they only have one performance

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Speaker 1: where they had over nine turnovers. So if they don't

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Speaker 1: beat themselves, and they also can turn to Jordan Hawkins,

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Speaker 1: who's finally out of his shooting stop. He shooting fifty

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Speaker 1: percent from three. He's canned seven threes and two games

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Speaker 1: for the Huskies. I think it's the reason why they won,

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Speaker 1: going away from a really tough Saint Mary's team, a

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Speaker 1: tough team to beat by as many points as they did.

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Speaker 1: I think that's a good indication of where they're headed.

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Speaker 1: As you mentioned, playing their best basketball at the right time.

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Speaker 1: I think this is the end of the road for Arkansas,

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Speaker 1: and both you and I were on them to upset

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Speaker 1: Kansas and that's how we had it in our bracket,

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Speaker 1: and this is where I have them getting off the train.

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Speaker 1: So I think this is the right time to back Yukon.

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Speaker 3: All lay the.

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Speaker 4: Points, keep your shirt on, Muss, sorry, Kong PJ.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, let's make it.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I'll mega three for three.

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Speaker 2: You know, if you look at Arkansas, they do three

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Speaker 2: three things elite. Offensively, they are top forty in the

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Speaker 2: country in points for possession at the rim, they get

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Speaker 2: to the free throw line an incredibly high rate, and

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Speaker 2: they're very very good in transition. Like you guys already mentioned, you.

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Speaker 3: Know, Yukon.

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Speaker 2: The one worry here is they allow teams to get the.

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Speaker 3: Free throw line at a pretty high rate.

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Speaker 2: But they are incredibly good in defending in both transition

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Speaker 2: and at the rim. So if you force Arkansas to

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Speaker 2: take a bunch of jump shots, something they're not comfortable.

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Speaker 3: Doing, it's going to be very, very difficult for them.

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Speaker 2: And Arkansas defensively, they've been really good at defending the

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Speaker 2: three point line. But I still have question marks about

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Speaker 2: you know, obviously them playing in the SEC for the

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Speaker 2: whole season and then also switching the ball right before

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Speaker 2: the tournament started. So are they an elite three point

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Speaker 2: defense or did they just be in a bad conference

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Speaker 2: and the ball switched before the NCAA tournament. I don't

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Speaker 2: I don't know if we know the answer to that

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Speaker 2: question yet. But I mean, Kansas only attempted thirteen to

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Speaker 2: three pointers against them, But the game against ill in

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Speaker 2: the first round, Illinois had eight open three pointers and

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Speaker 2: just could not hit any of them.

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Speaker 3: Yukon is a high volume three.

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Speaker 2: Point shooting team, it's kind of what's you know, shot

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Speaker 2: them out of games at times this season. They are

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Speaker 2: hitting over thirty six percent on the season, and they

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Speaker 2: got hot against Sint Mary's, which ultimately led them to

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Speaker 2: the victory.

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Speaker 3: But a lot of.

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Speaker 2: Three pointers means a lot of long rebounds. And that's

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Speaker 2: why you know Yukon is they have a ton of size.

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Speaker 2: But they're second in the country in offensive rebounding percentage.

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Speaker 2: Arkansas only allowed ten total offensive rebounds through the first

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Speaker 2: two games they're coming into the tournament, they were outside

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Speaker 2: the top one hundred in defensive rebounding percentage. So I

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Speaker 2: think some variants maybe went their way, some balls bounced

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Speaker 2: their way a little bit to get that low of

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Speaker 2: an offensive rebounding allowed numbers. So with you guys, I

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Speaker 2: like Yukon in this matchup, and I think they can

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Speaker 2: defend Arkansas in the three areas that there are, the

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Speaker 2: two areas that they're elite at.

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Speaker 4: Offensively, I hopefully we'll all have to see shirtless musts

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Speaker 4: all right at the mute Cohen on Twitter if they

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Speaker 4: go to the Elite eight again. All right, moving on

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Speaker 4: to the later the late night late on Thursday, We'll

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Speaker 4: start with another sec team Tennessee minus five and a

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Speaker 4: half against Florida Atlantic over under one thirty and a half.

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Speaker 4: I could tell you I played Floridalantic plus five and

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Speaker 4: a half here you could you still see some recency bias.

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Speaker 3: I think late in the year.

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Speaker 4: Last week, everyone defade Tennessee, calling him fraudulent, which I

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Speaker 4: have for a while. And then they won that game

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Speaker 4: against who kind of just bullied them, and then everyone

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Speaker 4: said Tennessee's legit. There they are a true national title

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Speaker 4: contenter because of one game. And I think because of that,

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Speaker 4: this line is a touch high. And I think if

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Speaker 4: they played, if they didn't play that Duke game, this

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Speaker 4: line and these two teams just played last week, this

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Speaker 4: line would be like three and a half. So I

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Speaker 4: glad they took the five and a half here. And

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Speaker 4: I think that this Florida Atlantic seam, look they're great.

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Speaker 4: Look what they what how Floridalantic places. They do have

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Speaker 4: a seven footer in the middle, but around him they'll

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Speaker 4: usually play four out and they have all four guys

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Speaker 4: on the.

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Speaker 3: Team could shoot.

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Speaker 4: And this is a team that shoots the three at

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Speaker 4: a top fifty eight and makes the three at a

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Speaker 4: top fifty percentage. Nationally, and that's what you need to

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Speaker 4: do against Tennessee, who is You've got to move the

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Speaker 4: ball well, which Floridllana could do they're very deep to

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Speaker 4: and you have to hit threes. There's a reason why

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Speaker 4: Tennessee this year. You know, they were number one in

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Speaker 4: the country in three point defense twenty six point four percent,

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Speaker 4: but they allowed a three point a tenth rate that

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Speaker 4: was three hundred and twelve nationally. So you're going to

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Speaker 4: get threes up up against them, and you got to

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Speaker 4: make them. So this goes back to your point BJ

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Speaker 4: with the Tennessee playing in the SEC and then they

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Speaker 4: played Duke. Duke's not a good a good three point

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Speaker 4: shooting team. I think a great comparison for who Florida

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Speaker 4: Atlantic is for who what's on Tennessee's schedule is Missouri.

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Speaker 4: Missori also shoots and makes a high volume threes. They

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Speaker 4: swept Tennessee this year. They scored eighty six and seventy

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Speaker 4: nine in both games. And miss Sory is a much

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Speaker 4: worse defense and a horrendous rebounding team in Firelanks, really

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Speaker 4: good on the boards on both ends. They'll compete here,

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Speaker 4: which is important. I was like, Okay, let's break. Let's

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Speaker 4: break this Tennessee Conference schedule down against the only four

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Speaker 4: teams in the SEC. And remember the SEC is a

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Speaker 4: conference shot thirty two percent from three that was enduring

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Speaker 4: league play, that was last in the entire country. Only

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Speaker 4: four teams shot above thirty three percent during league play,

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Speaker 4: which is horrendous, but that was Missouri, Alabama, Kentucky, and Vanderbilt.

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Speaker 4: Tennessee went two to five against those teams, and those

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Speaker 4: teams shot fifty two of one to fifty two from

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Speaker 4: three thirty four point two percent against all the others.

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Speaker 4: So the just the teams who cannot shoot a lick.

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Speaker 4: Tennessee went ten and three and held those opponents just

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Speaker 4: seventy two of two to eighty one from three twenty

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Speaker 4: five and a half percent. So it's the teams like Arkansas,

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Speaker 4: Mississippi State, Oh miss all the teams that couldn't shoot.

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Speaker 4: That's where this percentage just came from. Well, Florida Atlanta

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Speaker 4: can shoot. I think team people are sleeping on this

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Speaker 4: ALS team a little too high on Tennessee in the

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Speaker 4: flavor of the week after that Duke win, and I'm

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Speaker 4: just comfortable fading this Tennessee team, which still is limited

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Speaker 4: on offense, especially without Ziggler. They're laying playing a medium

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Speaker 4: sized number in the tournament against a good team happily

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Speaker 4: took the dog here. I know, even planning the Tennessee

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Speaker 4: funeral for the last two games. You're wearing orange today,

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Speaker 4: but it's not the Tennessee orange. Are you planning it?

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Speaker 4: Once again, we'll.

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Speaker 1: Go to the third page in the hymnal here for

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Speaker 1: my eulogy on Tennessee. Listen. They finish the season five

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Speaker 1: and four straight up coming into you know, with including

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Speaker 1: those two wins over Louisiana and Duke, so it's not

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Speaker 1: like they were red hot, So I do think. I

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Speaker 1: agree there's recency bias four and six against the spread

378
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Speaker 1: in their last ten games as a favorite for four

379
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Speaker 1: points or more, and I agree. I think the general

380
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Speaker 1: narrative on mid majors at this point in the tournament

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Speaker 1: is you know that they're probably out of their depth.

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Speaker 1: But when you look at FAU, they're top thirty five

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Speaker 1: and Ken palm Oh and y, I don't see them

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Speaker 1: getting bullied inside in the same way that Duke was.

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Speaker 1: Duke looked like they were leaving the boxing ring, like

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Speaker 1: as soon as Philipowski got bloodied. I think it was

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Speaker 1: just a situation where a young Duke team was not

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Speaker 1: prepared for that level of physicality Fau will be. And

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Speaker 1: then finally the kill shot metric, which I love Evan Maya,

390
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Speaker 1: you know, putting it out there. They have the most

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Speaker 1: ten oh runs of any team left in the field.

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Speaker 1: So to be able to cover a number like this

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Speaker 1: in any way, shape or form where you feel comfortable

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Speaker 1: down the stretch, Tennessee's got to be winning by ten

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Speaker 1: twelve points. I don't see that with what they have Offensively,

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Speaker 1: I think this is going to be a very physical game.

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Speaker 1: I think it's going to be low scoring. And the

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Speaker 1: fact that you have a team that can go on

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Speaker 1: a run in orchestra to comeback, I think that leaves

400
00:18:52,960 --> 00:18:54,840
Speaker 1: the back door open the whole way. So I'll go

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Speaker 1: with the als plus the points as well.

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Speaker 4: Pij quickly, you're very big contests here.

403
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Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, I agree. You know all the points. You know,

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Speaker 3: I basically had my notes.

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Speaker 2: One thing I'll say about, you know, the recency bias

406
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Speaker 2: point is that, yes, it was a very impressive performance

407
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Speaker 2: against Duke, but if you just go back to the

408
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Speaker 2: game before they against Louisiana. Tennessee put up point eighty

409
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Speaker 2: seven points for possession and turn the ball over eighteen

410
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Speaker 2: times against the Louisiana team that was ninth in the

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Speaker 2: Sun Belt and adjusted defensive efficiency. Essentially, what happened agains

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Speaker 2: Duke is they got hot from three. They went nine

413
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Speaker 2: of twenty one the game before that. They didn't shoot

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Speaker 2: the ball very well from three point range in Tennessee

415
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Speaker 2: actually is kind of a high volume three point shooting team,

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Speaker 2: Like they're a little over forty percent three point right

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Speaker 2: on the season, but they're obviously not hitting a very

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Speaker 2: high percentage.

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Speaker 3: So I agree with you, guys.

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Speaker 2: I think this is a great matchup here for Florida

421
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Speaker 2: Atlantic and Tennessee.

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Speaker 1: You know, their incredible ball movement.

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Speaker 3: Team as well.

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Speaker 2: They're second in the country and assist a field as

425
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Speaker 2: system made field goal percentage. Florida Lantic is second defensively

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Speaker 2: in that category. So I agree with you guys. I

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Speaker 2: like the als here. I think this is maybe a

428
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Speaker 2: touch too high here for Tennessee. So like then plus

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Speaker 2: five and a half.

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Speaker 4: All right, let's move on to the final game on

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Speaker 4: Thursday night, can Zag UCLA nine forty five Eastern on CBS.

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Speaker 4: This game will take place at the Team Mobil Arena

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Speaker 4: in Las Vegas, Nevada. UCLA two point favorite over under

434
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Speaker 4: one forty five and a half. I cannot believe it's

435
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Speaker 4: been seven It'll be seventeen years to the day when

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00:20:18,000 --> 00:20:21,480
Speaker 4: these two teams tip off of the Adam Morrison crying game.

437
00:20:22,160 --> 00:20:25,920
Speaker 4: And of course everyone remembers a couple of years ago

438
00:20:26,000 --> 00:20:30,080
Speaker 4: the shot in the Final Four when Godzaga got their

439
00:20:30,119 --> 00:20:34,000
Speaker 4: revenge in overtime. So these two teams have had some classics.

440
00:20:34,040 --> 00:20:38,159
Speaker 4: Spread is close to a pick here. My initial thoughts

441
00:20:38,160 --> 00:20:40,760
Speaker 4: on this game. I'm not as high on the market

442
00:20:40,920 --> 00:20:43,840
Speaker 4: as Gonzaga. I do think, you know, look, I think

443
00:20:43,880 --> 00:20:46,120
Speaker 4: that the they still have a fatal flaw. It's gonna

444
00:20:46,119 --> 00:20:48,679
Speaker 4: catch up to them. That's their defense. They played a

445
00:20:49,480 --> 00:20:52,439
Speaker 4: TCU team that wants to run, and I think that

446
00:20:52,480 --> 00:20:55,240
Speaker 4: worked in favor of both those teams. That you saw

447
00:20:55,359 --> 00:20:57,160
Speaker 4: games played under the eighties, it was just a bunch

448
00:20:57,160 --> 00:21:00,560
Speaker 4: of runs back and forth. Unfortunately it's didn't have to

449
00:21:00,560 --> 00:21:03,520
Speaker 4: deal with Eddie Lampkin. But they're not going to run

450
00:21:03,560 --> 00:21:05,520
Speaker 4: here and they're going to play in the half court.

451
00:21:05,880 --> 00:21:09,600
Speaker 4: USA doesn't let you run, doesn't let anybody run. And

452
00:21:09,720 --> 00:21:12,640
Speaker 4: again I'll keep coming back to this, but more times

453
00:21:12,640 --> 00:21:14,560
Speaker 4: than not outside with the team that's more comfortable in

454
00:21:14,600 --> 00:21:16,600
Speaker 4: the half court and likes to grind the game down

455
00:21:16,600 --> 00:21:18,480
Speaker 4: to a halt more so than the team that needs

456
00:21:18,480 --> 00:21:21,160
Speaker 4: to get out and run. And this Gonzaga team, unlike

457
00:21:21,160 --> 00:21:24,720
Speaker 4: a couple of years ago, their defensive metrics are very concerning.

458
00:21:25,359 --> 00:21:29,119
Speaker 4: They obviously missed ched Holmgrom significantly from last year. Their

459
00:21:29,200 --> 00:21:32,600
Speaker 4: rim defense is very suspect, their post defense is very suspect.

460
00:21:32,640 --> 00:21:34,159
Speaker 3: You can move to.

461
00:21:34,359 --> 00:21:36,520
Speaker 4: Timmy around on the pick and roll and get him

462
00:21:36,520 --> 00:21:38,760
Speaker 4: out of position, which I'm sure Tiger Campbell will do.

463
00:21:39,960 --> 00:21:40,600
Speaker 3: So I'm going to.

464
00:21:40,600 --> 00:21:43,840
Speaker 4: Trust these these UCLA seniors to just make more shots

465
00:21:43,880 --> 00:21:49,240
Speaker 4: down the stretch and exploit the Gonzaga defense more so

466
00:21:49,280 --> 00:21:51,800
Speaker 4: than Gonzaga, who does have shot makers and Timmy's amazing

467
00:21:51,800 --> 00:21:55,840
Speaker 4: on offense. But I think that I think that the

468
00:21:55,880 --> 00:21:58,000
Speaker 4: weak unit again in this game is going to be

469
00:21:58,000 --> 00:22:01,920
Speaker 4: the difference and that's just going to result in UCLA

470
00:22:02,359 --> 00:22:05,040
Speaker 4: his ability to get buckets when they need too late

471
00:22:05,040 --> 00:22:08,440
Speaker 4: and which should be a highly competitive game. There are

472
00:22:08,520 --> 00:22:13,200
Speaker 4: injury concerns for UCLA. They already lost their best defender

473
00:22:13,680 --> 00:22:17,919
Speaker 4: and Clark for the year. Bona reaggravated his shoulder, Singleton

474
00:22:18,000 --> 00:22:21,239
Speaker 4: hurt his ankle. But I think Singleton and Boner are

475
00:22:21,240 --> 00:22:24,080
Speaker 4: going to be fine. I mean, based on what I've

476
00:22:24,119 --> 00:22:26,760
Speaker 4: seen on them walking to the bus and warrumps and read,

477
00:22:26,840 --> 00:22:28,679
Speaker 4: I think they're going to be okay. That's really important.

478
00:22:28,680 --> 00:22:34,320
Speaker 4: Bona's clearly their best interior defender. He could give Timmy

479
00:22:34,359 --> 00:22:37,840
Speaker 4: some trouble. Singleton, if he's a little limited, it would

480
00:22:37,920 --> 00:22:40,920
Speaker 4: hurt on the defensive end, but he would be fine

481
00:22:40,960 --> 00:22:43,760
Speaker 4: as a spot up shooter, which is his main role

482
00:22:43,800 --> 00:22:45,879
Speaker 4: in the offensive end. But from what I've read and

483
00:22:45,920 --> 00:22:47,399
Speaker 4: what I've seen, I think they're both going to be

484
00:22:47,400 --> 00:22:50,800
Speaker 4: fine here. So I haven't played Ucla let yet, but

485
00:22:50,840 --> 00:22:55,120
Speaker 4: I'm leaning that way. Michael, let me get your thoughts here.

486
00:22:55,720 --> 00:22:58,760
Speaker 1: I don't talk myself into and out of a play

487
00:22:58,800 --> 00:23:00,719
Speaker 1: on Gonzaga to the point where I'm going to keep

488
00:23:00,720 --> 00:23:03,800
Speaker 1: my money on the sideline. UCLA has won fourteen to

489
00:23:03,880 --> 00:23:06,840
Speaker 1: fifteen straight up. Hakkez is shooting as well as he

490
00:23:06,880 --> 00:23:09,359
Speaker 1: has in his entire career, and I think that's the

491
00:23:09,480 --> 00:23:12,160
Speaker 1: final element of it for me, where it's like picturing

492
00:23:12,240 --> 00:23:15,480
Speaker 1: him taking over and making sixty percent of his shots.

493
00:23:15,560 --> 00:23:18,200
Speaker 1: I can see it. And as you mentioned, Gonzaga has

494
00:23:18,240 --> 00:23:20,720
Speaker 1: so many liabilities on the defensive end that they're not

495
00:23:20,760 --> 00:23:22,879
Speaker 1: going to put them in difficult positions. The pick and

496
00:23:22,960 --> 00:23:25,399
Speaker 1: roll game, I think they're absolutely going to eat. So

497
00:23:25,560 --> 00:23:29,600
Speaker 1: I'm actually leaning more towards the overt. I understand that Singleton,

498
00:23:29,720 --> 00:23:33,080
Speaker 1: they're saying that he's fine, but just my brain watching

499
00:23:33,119 --> 00:23:36,600
Speaker 1: that injury in real time, I don't see it. And

500
00:23:37,040 --> 00:23:39,920
Speaker 1: I understand that it's a defensive system. Mick Cronin has

501
00:23:39,920 --> 00:23:42,600
Speaker 1: carried this defense with him his entire career. You know.

502
00:23:42,640 --> 00:23:45,080
Speaker 1: It basically was his launching pad to get to a

503
00:23:45,080 --> 00:23:47,760
Speaker 1: premier job like UCLA. So it's not as though they're

504
00:23:47,760 --> 00:23:51,159
Speaker 1: going to, you know, morph into a defense that's in

505
00:23:51,160 --> 00:23:53,960
Speaker 1: the two hundreds and metrics. But I do think in

506
00:23:54,040 --> 00:23:56,760
Speaker 1: terms of being able to absolutely throw the shackles on

507
00:23:56,920 --> 00:24:00,879
Speaker 1: the running game for Gonzaga, if Singleton isn't even seventy

508
00:24:00,920 --> 00:24:03,760
Speaker 1: five percent, which is that's my guess, I think he's

509
00:24:03,800 --> 00:24:06,080
Speaker 1: going to gut it out and try his best to play.

510
00:24:06,160 --> 00:24:08,040
Speaker 1: I think there's still going to be runs to be

511
00:24:08,119 --> 00:24:10,080
Speaker 1: had for the Zags here, so I'm going to go

512
00:24:10,200 --> 00:24:12,480
Speaker 1: over in this spot. I think one forty five and

513
00:24:12,520 --> 00:24:15,840
Speaker 1: a half is just just about right. But honestly, I

514
00:24:15,840 --> 00:24:18,120
Speaker 1: think if Gonzaga can up the tempo even a little

515
00:24:18,119 --> 00:24:20,880
Speaker 1: bit and move UCLA out of their comfort zone, there's

516
00:24:20,880 --> 00:24:23,760
Speaker 1: an opportunity to fly past this number. And then, finally,

517
00:24:23,800 --> 00:24:26,280
Speaker 1: the reason why I was like a little bit leaning

518
00:24:26,320 --> 00:24:30,680
Speaker 1: towards Gonzaga here is that you know, they played Tommy

519
00:24:30,760 --> 00:24:34,639
Speaker 1: Lloyd three times with Arizona the same exact system and

520
00:24:34,680 --> 00:24:36,560
Speaker 1: they went one and two straight up. So from an

521
00:24:36,600 --> 00:24:39,720
Speaker 1: apple's apple's perspective, even when they were lower scoring games,

522
00:24:40,119 --> 00:24:44,119
Speaker 1: UCLA ended up losing those. So the tiniest lean towards

523
00:24:44,160 --> 00:24:46,440
Speaker 1: the Zags and over one forty five and a halfs

524
00:24:46,480 --> 00:24:46,840
Speaker 1: might play.

525
00:24:48,520 --> 00:24:51,600
Speaker 4: Yeah, for what it's worth, also, got Zaga ranks in

526
00:24:51,680 --> 00:24:57,480
Speaker 4: the sixteenth percentile per Synergy in transition defense, So if

527
00:24:57,560 --> 00:25:00,280
Speaker 4: UCLA gets a chance to get out and on, you

528
00:25:00,280 --> 00:25:02,320
Speaker 4: could see some success there, which would definitely help the

529
00:25:02,359 --> 00:25:05,960
Speaker 4: over It should be real high competitive Galea. I'm not like, yeah,

530
00:25:05,960 --> 00:25:08,000
Speaker 4: I could see I could see arguments for both sides

531
00:25:08,040 --> 00:25:11,440
Speaker 4: for sure. So let's were we get on too Friday.

532
00:25:11,480 --> 00:25:13,160
Speaker 4: Let's go with our best bets for Thursday.

533
00:25:13,280 --> 00:25:13,480
Speaker 3: BJ.

534
00:25:13,600 --> 00:25:17,400
Speaker 4: I'll start with you best bet for Thursday, Sweet sixteen.

535
00:25:18,040 --> 00:25:21,280
Speaker 2: I will go with Yukon minus three. I think they'll

536
00:25:21,280 --> 00:25:22,760
Speaker 2: be able to take away a lot of the advantage

537
00:25:22,760 --> 00:25:24,560
Speaker 2: that Arkansas has had in the first two rounds.

538
00:25:25,000 --> 00:25:27,240
Speaker 4: I'll go Florida Atlantic plus five. And I think this

539
00:25:27,359 --> 00:25:29,520
Speaker 4: line is a touch high after what Tennessee did to

540
00:25:29,600 --> 00:25:31,160
Speaker 4: Duke last week.

541
00:25:31,800 --> 00:25:33,280
Speaker 3: Remember this is still an offense.

542
00:25:33,280 --> 00:25:35,440
Speaker 4: It's very limited now laying five and a half against

543
00:25:35,480 --> 00:25:39,000
Speaker 4: a Florida Atlantic offense that can shoot. And they got

544
00:25:39,119 --> 00:25:41,320
Speaker 4: multiple shooters, which is what you need against Tennessee and

545
00:25:41,359 --> 00:25:44,600
Speaker 4: something that Tennessee has rarely seen this year. Playing in

546
00:25:44,640 --> 00:25:50,280
Speaker 4: the SEC. FAU can hit threes. They also will compete

547
00:25:50,320 --> 00:25:54,680
Speaker 4: on the glass profile very similar to Missouri who swept Tennessee,

548
00:25:55,359 --> 00:25:57,720
Speaker 4: and FAU has a much better defense. It is a

549
00:25:57,800 --> 00:26:01,480
Speaker 4: much better defensive rebind team. So give me the owls

550
00:26:02,840 --> 00:26:06,680
Speaker 4: and I also agree with your Yukon take Mike favorite

551
00:26:06,720 --> 00:26:07,400
Speaker 4: bet on Thursday.

552
00:26:07,600 --> 00:26:10,200
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'll piggyback on the owls. Let's go FAU take

553
00:26:10,240 --> 00:26:12,679
Speaker 1: the points. I'm gonna sprinkle on the money line as well,

554
00:26:13,119 --> 00:26:17,600
Speaker 1: and you know, keep this funeral march alive for Tennessee.

555
00:26:17,760 --> 00:26:19,520
Speaker 1: This is the team that just refuses to die. But

556
00:26:19,720 --> 00:26:21,600
Speaker 1: at some point they're gonna they're gonna fall with this

557
00:26:21,680 --> 00:26:24,600
Speaker 1: offense because they're gonna fall behind by five or six points,

558
00:26:24,800 --> 00:26:28,120
Speaker 1: and it's gonna rear its ugly head that they are

559
00:26:28,160 --> 00:26:31,000
Speaker 1: not playing a beautiful form of basketball on the offensive end.

560
00:26:31,080 --> 00:26:32,439
Speaker 1: So I'll go with FAU.

561
00:26:33,960 --> 00:26:39,800
Speaker 4: All right, get the hurst ready, let's go owls okay

562
00:26:39,840 --> 00:26:40,240
Speaker 4: before we.

563
00:26:40,200 --> 00:26:40,720
Speaker 3: Go any further.

564
00:26:40,800 --> 00:26:43,600
Speaker 4: As a reminder, Big Bets on Campus is presented by

565
00:26:43,760 --> 00:26:46,679
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566
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569
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571
00:27:05,080 --> 00:27:08,919
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572
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573
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578
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579
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581
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583
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584
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589
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590
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597
00:28:15,920 --> 00:28:18,360
Speaker 4: All right, let's move on a Friday night, Sweet sixteen.

598
00:28:18,560 --> 00:28:21,719
Speaker 4: Four more games starting at six thirty Eastern on TBS.

599
00:28:21,920 --> 00:28:27,120
Speaker 4: Astecs Alabama Alabama seven seven and a half point favorite

600
00:28:27,200 --> 00:28:30,360
Speaker 4: over under one thirty seven. I took the astets here.

601
00:28:30,480 --> 00:28:34,000
Speaker 4: I think this is a great matchup flock. Alabama is

602
00:28:34,240 --> 00:28:36,840
Speaker 4: arguably the most talented team in the country. I assume

603
00:28:36,880 --> 00:28:40,440
Speaker 4: that Brandon Miller and then also Marcus Sasser, although they're groings,

604
00:28:40,480 --> 00:28:41,440
Speaker 4: you never know they're growing.

605
00:28:41,600 --> 00:28:42,920
Speaker 3: But they're playing on Friday.

606
00:28:43,520 --> 00:28:45,640
Speaker 4: They also played on Saturday, so like you get the

607
00:28:45,640 --> 00:28:47,680
Speaker 4: extra day of prep and then played one day before

608
00:28:47,720 --> 00:28:49,760
Speaker 4: the benefit of being the one seed here you got

609
00:28:49,800 --> 00:28:53,440
Speaker 4: five days in between games. I'm assuming Sasser and nn

610
00:28:53,440 --> 00:28:55,320
Speaker 4: Miller will be close to one hundred percent for what

611
00:28:55,360 --> 00:28:57,360
Speaker 4: it's worth. If you guys disagree, you can jump in

612
00:28:57,440 --> 00:28:59,680
Speaker 4: during the analysis and let me know. But it is

613
00:29:00,000 --> 00:29:01,800
Speaker 4: it is worth mentioning that they could you know, goring

614
00:29:01,840 --> 00:29:03,760
Speaker 4: could flare up and they might not be at one

615
00:29:03,840 --> 00:29:06,640
Speaker 4: hundred percent by Alabama, arguing the most talented team in

616
00:29:06,640 --> 00:29:09,640
Speaker 4: the country. They are, you know, NATO's has embraced the

617
00:29:09,640 --> 00:29:12,800
Speaker 4: analytical revolution. They're three, they shoot threes, and they want

618
00:29:12,840 --> 00:29:14,800
Speaker 4: to get to the rim. And on the other end,

619
00:29:14,880 --> 00:29:17,680
Speaker 4: they force you to shoot mid range jumpers, right they are.

620
00:29:18,120 --> 00:29:22,040
Speaker 4: They rank in the bottom three in the country in

621
00:29:22,120 --> 00:29:28,240
Speaker 4: mid range jumper percentage and the top three enforcing opponents

622
00:29:28,240 --> 00:29:32,080
Speaker 4: to shoot mid range jumpers. On the defensive end, well,

623
00:29:32,240 --> 00:29:36,000
Speaker 4: if there's one opponent who could match up with that

624
00:29:36,080 --> 00:29:40,240
Speaker 4: profile in San Diego State, they are very good at

625
00:29:40,280 --> 00:29:42,960
Speaker 4: defending at the rim and they are an elite three

626
00:29:42,960 --> 00:29:44,800
Speaker 4: point defense. They give a bunch of threes, but they

627
00:29:44,840 --> 00:29:49,440
Speaker 4: could test everything and they're just long, and it's just

628
00:29:49,640 --> 00:29:51,719
Speaker 4: always been the case with San Diego for basicalayers, it's

629
00:29:51,720 --> 00:29:54,960
Speaker 4: similar to Houston. You can really trust their perimeter defense.

630
00:29:55,000 --> 00:29:57,720
Speaker 4: And the other end, they have guards in Tremel and

631
00:29:58,560 --> 00:30:00,640
Speaker 4: Matt Bradley specifically that can live in the mid range,

632
00:30:01,160 --> 00:30:04,560
Speaker 4: which is where Alabama funnels you two and they can

633
00:30:04,600 --> 00:30:07,920
Speaker 4: just get red hot. And then also again, this is

634
00:30:07,960 --> 00:30:10,400
Speaker 4: a team that wants to slow the game down versus

635
00:30:10,440 --> 00:30:12,160
Speaker 4: the team that wants to speed it up. And I

636
00:30:12,320 --> 00:30:14,360
Speaker 4: will trust a team that can slow down. Sanego State

637
00:30:14,400 --> 00:30:16,840
Speaker 4: pretty much goes down against anyone that makes it tough

638
00:30:16,880 --> 00:30:20,800
Speaker 4: to cover a number like seven and a half. So yeah,

639
00:30:20,800 --> 00:30:22,360
Speaker 4: I think the Sanego State I'll be able to control

640
00:30:22,400 --> 00:30:26,160
Speaker 4: the tempo here. I think their physicality and athleticism can

641
00:30:26,200 --> 00:30:28,920
Speaker 4: match Alabama to a degree, and then just how they

642
00:30:29,000 --> 00:30:34,080
Speaker 4: profile against that you know, rim and three mentality of Alabama.

643
00:30:34,480 --> 00:30:35,640
Speaker 3: I think it's a decent matchup.

644
00:30:35,680 --> 00:30:37,360
Speaker 4: I don't know if they have enough met they don't

645
00:30:37,360 --> 00:30:40,280
Speaker 4: have enough offense to win this game outright, but I

646
00:30:40,320 --> 00:30:42,600
Speaker 4: do think that they can stay within this number. I

647
00:30:42,680 --> 00:30:47,680
Speaker 4: also have a lot of respect for Natoates and what

648
00:30:47,760 --> 00:30:51,560
Speaker 4: he's done at Alabama. Obviously fully embrace the analytical revolution,

649
00:30:51,720 --> 00:30:56,000
Speaker 4: but I trust Dutcher more as a game planner and

650
00:30:56,080 --> 00:30:58,240
Speaker 4: game schemer to come up with some things here that

651
00:30:58,320 --> 00:31:01,520
Speaker 4: might make a difference for what it's worth. With four

652
00:31:01,560 --> 00:31:05,280
Speaker 4: plus days of prep in between games, He's sixty percent

653
00:31:06,880 --> 00:31:09,640
Speaker 4: over the course of his career, I think fifty seven

654
00:31:09,680 --> 00:31:11,360
Speaker 4: and thirty eight against the spread.

655
00:31:11,920 --> 00:31:13,080
Speaker 3: So yeah, I think this is just.

656
00:31:13,000 --> 00:31:17,080
Speaker 4: A tad too many points with the Aztecs Baja, I

657
00:31:17,160 --> 00:31:18,720
Speaker 4: know you played this, so you agree here.

658
00:31:19,040 --> 00:31:21,520
Speaker 3: Yeah, I love the ASTX plus seven and a half.

659
00:31:21,640 --> 00:31:24,720
Speaker 2: So the pace clash, like you mentioned, I think is

660
00:31:24,840 --> 00:31:30,440
Speaker 2: very very interesting in this matchup because Alabama is sixth

661
00:31:30,560 --> 00:31:33,440
Speaker 2: fastest in the country in terms of average possession length

662
00:31:33,480 --> 00:31:37,440
Speaker 2: fifteen point three seconds. San Diego State, on defense, is

663
00:31:37,480 --> 00:31:40,760
Speaker 2: averaging eighteen point five seconds. That's three hundred and forty

664
00:31:40,760 --> 00:31:42,680
Speaker 2: six in the country. And if you look at the

665
00:31:42,680 --> 00:31:45,920
Speaker 2: game against Charleston, who is a very fast paced team,

666
00:31:46,040 --> 00:31:48,560
Speaker 2: San Diego State held that game to about a sixty

667
00:31:48,640 --> 00:31:51,800
Speaker 2: nine possession pace, and throughout Mountain West play only one

668
00:31:51,840 --> 00:31:55,080
Speaker 2: team pushed them above the seventy possession pace and it

669
00:31:55,160 --> 00:31:58,640
Speaker 2: was New Mexico. Alabama, you know, obviously plays very very fast,

670
00:31:58,720 --> 00:32:01,840
Speaker 2: but you know, the game again thin Maryland was a blowout,

671
00:32:01,880 --> 00:32:04,120
Speaker 2: so the possession of the pace was pretty slow at

672
00:32:04,160 --> 00:32:06,920
Speaker 2: seventy sixty seven possessions. But if you look at the

673
00:32:07,000 --> 00:32:10,320
Speaker 2: SEC tournament, all three of their games were under seventy

674
00:32:10,320 --> 00:32:13,080
Speaker 2: possession pace. So they have shown that they can be

675
00:32:13,280 --> 00:32:16,040
Speaker 2: held under that slow type pace, a game which obviously

676
00:32:16,040 --> 00:32:18,640
Speaker 2: favors San Diego State. And you mentioned, you know, the

677
00:32:19,040 --> 00:32:22,200
Speaker 2: analytical Revolution. San Diego State is eighth in the country

678
00:32:22,200 --> 00:32:24,120
Speaker 2: in Open three point rates. So, like you mentioned, they

679
00:32:24,200 --> 00:32:26,760
Speaker 2: can test every single three point shot, so you know

680
00:32:26,840 --> 00:32:28,960
Speaker 2: the fact they're only allowing twenty eight point seven percent,

681
00:32:29,160 --> 00:32:30,920
Speaker 2: it is legit because they don't allow a lot of

682
00:32:30,960 --> 00:32:34,160
Speaker 2: open three pointers. You know, the Aztecs offensively, like you mentioned,

683
00:32:34,200 --> 00:32:35,800
Speaker 2: you know a ton of mid range jumpers. They also

684
00:32:35,880 --> 00:32:38,240
Speaker 2: do a ton of post upsets and they get to

685
00:32:38,240 --> 00:32:40,120
Speaker 2: the free throwing at the top one hundred rate, which

686
00:32:40,160 --> 00:32:43,680
Speaker 2: is a big, big disadvantage for Alabama defensively because they

687
00:32:43,720 --> 00:32:45,240
Speaker 2: are two hundred and twenty second in the country and

688
00:32:45,280 --> 00:32:47,800
Speaker 2: free throw rate allowed. And digging even a little deeper

689
00:32:47,840 --> 00:32:51,160
Speaker 2: into Alabama's defense against mid range jumpers for the season,

690
00:32:51,200 --> 00:32:53,640
Speaker 2: they're allowing thirty two percent, but per shot quality, they're

691
00:32:53,640 --> 00:32:56,280
Speaker 2: actually due for negative aggression from the mid range. There

692
00:32:56,320 --> 00:32:57,960
Speaker 2: should be allowing around thirty eight percent.

693
00:32:58,000 --> 00:32:58,680
Speaker 3: So I agree with you.

694
00:32:59,080 --> 00:33:01,160
Speaker 2: I think the Assets can heat this game to a

695
00:33:02,080 --> 00:33:05,280
Speaker 2: below a seventy possession pace and played in the half court,

696
00:33:05,360 --> 00:33:08,040
Speaker 2: and really, I mean there are very very physical teams.

697
00:33:08,120 --> 00:33:10,280
Speaker 2: This is gonna be a big time challenge for Alabama,

698
00:33:10,320 --> 00:33:12,440
Speaker 2: who has kind of breezed through these first two games,

699
00:33:12,440 --> 00:33:14,120
Speaker 2: and it's gonna be a big time wake up call.

700
00:33:14,240 --> 00:33:16,280
Speaker 2: So I like San Diego State to muck this game up,

701
00:33:16,320 --> 00:33:17,520
Speaker 2: and I agree if you I like them seven and

702
00:33:17,560 --> 00:33:17,920
Speaker 2: a half.

703
00:33:18,680 --> 00:33:20,280
Speaker 3: My thoughts, I'm.

704
00:33:20,120 --> 00:33:22,520
Speaker 1: Gonna go San Diego State money line for all the

705
00:33:22,560 --> 00:33:25,120
Speaker 1: reasons you guys are laying it out there. Brian Dutcher

706
00:33:25,160 --> 00:33:28,960
Speaker 1: since twenty eighteen has won as an underdog outright forty

707
00:33:28,960 --> 00:33:30,480
Speaker 1: percent of the time, which is the best in the

708
00:33:30,480 --> 00:33:34,000
Speaker 1: Mountain West twenty seventh nationally. He's a great game planner.

709
00:33:34,040 --> 00:33:35,880
Speaker 1: I think he'll have a great game plan to slow

710
00:33:35,960 --> 00:33:38,880
Speaker 1: down this Alabama offense. And let's let's look at what

711
00:33:39,000 --> 00:33:41,720
Speaker 1: happened when the Crimson Tide ran into a top fifteen

712
00:33:41,800 --> 00:33:44,560
Speaker 1: Ken Palm defense. They beat Houston by six in a

713
00:33:44,600 --> 00:33:47,760
Speaker 1: lower scoring game. They lost to Yukon by fifteen. They

714
00:33:47,800 --> 00:33:50,400
Speaker 1: lost to Tennessee. You know my thoughts on Tennessee by nine.

715
00:33:50,800 --> 00:33:53,640
Speaker 1: They were lucky to win against Arkansas, beating them by

716
00:33:53,680 --> 00:33:56,720
Speaker 1: three at home. And you have Brandon Miller coming into

717
00:33:56,720 --> 00:34:00,480
Speaker 1: this game in this tournament five for twenty two from

718
00:34:00,560 --> 00:34:04,280
Speaker 1: the field. So for all of the good vibes with

719
00:34:04,320 --> 00:34:06,320
Speaker 1: that number one on the seed line next to their

720
00:34:06,400 --> 00:34:10,560
Speaker 1: name on the chiron, like I think that they are vulnerable.

721
00:34:10,560 --> 00:34:12,560
Speaker 1: I thought they were coming in. They got a nice

722
00:34:12,640 --> 00:34:16,200
Speaker 1: draw in the first weekends and it was well deserved.

723
00:34:16,239 --> 00:34:18,160
Speaker 1: But at this point, I think they're running into a

724
00:34:18,200 --> 00:34:22,040
Speaker 1: team that is one big Matt Bradley performance away from

725
00:34:22,080 --> 00:34:24,799
Speaker 1: winning this game. Out right. Has he done it this year?

726
00:34:24,840 --> 00:34:27,600
Speaker 1: He gave Arkansas twenty three in the Mali Classic, a

727
00:34:27,640 --> 00:34:29,560
Speaker 1: game they went to overtime when Arkansas was ninth in

728
00:34:29,560 --> 00:34:32,000
Speaker 1: the country, so he's capable of it. It's going to

729
00:34:32,080 --> 00:34:35,080
Speaker 1: require that. But I think the value on the money

730
00:34:35,160 --> 00:34:37,040
Speaker 1: line here is just too good to pass up. So

731
00:34:37,080 --> 00:34:38,919
Speaker 1: I'm going to go with the Aztecs to knock out

732
00:34:39,000 --> 00:34:41,200
Speaker 1: the third number one seed from this tournament.

733
00:34:42,120 --> 00:34:44,800
Speaker 3: Yeah, I would agree on the money line plague.

734
00:34:44,840 --> 00:34:48,600
Speaker 4: If you're looking for a moneyline dog in the Sweet sixteen,

735
00:34:48,800 --> 00:34:50,959
Speaker 4: I think SI I Diego State is the obvious choice

736
00:34:50,960 --> 00:34:54,440
Speaker 4: because the game does have a lot of variants, which

737
00:34:54,600 --> 00:34:58,280
Speaker 4: is good for a money one underdog and wider distribution

738
00:34:58,400 --> 00:35:01,040
Speaker 4: results because of Matt Bradley shoot right, if he's hot,

739
00:35:01,719 --> 00:35:03,600
Speaker 4: he could pull this game off, or he could shoot

740
00:35:03,640 --> 00:35:06,080
Speaker 4: them out of a game. And then you have Alabama

741
00:35:06,360 --> 00:35:09,000
Speaker 4: who's going up against an elite perimeter day, but they're

742
00:35:09,000 --> 00:35:12,000
Speaker 4: still going to get up their threes. So if Alabama

743
00:35:12,120 --> 00:35:14,680
Speaker 4: is on one of their you know, one of their

744
00:35:14,760 --> 00:35:17,040
Speaker 4: nights where they're hitting fifty eight percent from three, and

745
00:35:17,080 --> 00:35:20,080
Speaker 4: you know they go fourteen of twenty seven or something,

746
00:35:20,200 --> 00:35:22,560
Speaker 4: well guess what they're going to win this game. So

747
00:35:22,680 --> 00:35:25,279
Speaker 4: there's a lot of variants with the shooting on both sides,

748
00:35:25,320 --> 00:35:27,359
Speaker 4: Like if Alabama is hitting their threes and Bradley's off,

749
00:35:27,400 --> 00:35:31,120
Speaker 4: good night Aztecs. If Bradley's red hot and Alabama's off

750
00:35:31,800 --> 00:35:32,560
Speaker 4: easily go down.

751
00:35:32,640 --> 00:35:34,879
Speaker 3: So I love that call real quick.

752
00:35:35,560 --> 00:35:38,839
Speaker 2: Yeah, if Lord Atlantic San Diego State moneyline parlay pays

753
00:35:38,880 --> 00:35:40,440
Speaker 2: a little over ten to one, I might have to

754
00:35:40,440 --> 00:35:41,480
Speaker 2: sprinkle that a little bit.

755
00:35:41,560 --> 00:35:45,200
Speaker 4: Oh that does sound fairly appetizing. Let's move on to

756
00:35:45,239 --> 00:35:48,160
Speaker 4: the second game on Friday night, Miami Houston seven to

757
00:35:48,160 --> 00:35:51,680
Speaker 4: fifteen Eastern on CBS Houston, the other one seed still alive,

758
00:35:51,760 --> 00:35:56,440
Speaker 4: seven point favorite here over under one thirty eight.

759
00:35:57,640 --> 00:35:59,000
Speaker 3: Mike. Let me throw it to you quickly.

760
00:35:59,160 --> 00:36:02,919
Speaker 4: First thought on this game, it's I mean, I guess

761
00:36:02,960 --> 00:36:07,560
Speaker 4: there are injury concerns, but what we saw from Sasser

762
00:36:07,680 --> 00:36:09,799
Speaker 4: then five days in between, and then what we saw

763
00:36:09,800 --> 00:36:13,680
Speaker 4: from Omir dominated Indiana on the glass. I think these

764
00:36:13,719 --> 00:36:16,360
Speaker 4: teams are going to be at full strength. What do

765
00:36:16,360 --> 00:36:17,920
Speaker 4: you have quick thoughts here on this matchup?

766
00:36:18,160 --> 00:36:20,760
Speaker 1: Yeah, I just want I jotted down my prediction for

767
00:36:20,920 --> 00:36:23,480
Speaker 1: the spread and the total. I was dead on for

768
00:36:23,520 --> 00:36:25,480
Speaker 1: the spread and a point off on the total, So

769
00:36:25,520 --> 00:36:28,480
Speaker 1: I think this is very well calibrated. I respect Miami

770
00:36:28,520 --> 00:36:30,839
Speaker 1: too much at this point in the season in terms

771
00:36:30,880 --> 00:36:33,439
Speaker 1: of what they bring from their guards and the fact

772
00:36:33,440 --> 00:36:36,760
Speaker 1: that Emir is healthy. I think he had what twenty

773
00:36:36,760 --> 00:36:39,239
Speaker 1: four rebounds and two games something like that, so he's

774
00:36:39,239 --> 00:36:41,960
Speaker 1: giving them exactly what he needs from that. Like Dennis Robin,

775
00:36:42,080 --> 00:36:46,120
Speaker 1: high energy, you know, rebounding forward perspective. So for me,

776
00:36:46,200 --> 00:36:48,719
Speaker 1: it's just a pass. I have some strong takes on

777
00:36:48,760 --> 00:36:50,439
Speaker 1: a lot of these games. This is not one of them.

778
00:36:50,719 --> 00:36:54,600
Speaker 1: I could see Houston flexing again because Miami, what they

779
00:36:54,640 --> 00:36:57,960
Speaker 1: did against Indiana, it's a very nice win, and I

780
00:36:57,960 --> 00:37:00,279
Speaker 1: think it puts a nice cap on their season has

781
00:37:00,320 --> 00:37:02,600
Speaker 1: no bearing whatsoever in this game because I think Houston's

782
00:37:02,600 --> 00:37:04,719
Speaker 1: a completely different animal and the way that they just

783
00:37:05,160 --> 00:37:07,640
Speaker 1: go on these runs and shut teams down. I think

784
00:37:07,680 --> 00:37:09,600
Speaker 1: it's going to be too difficult for Miami to get

785
00:37:09,640 --> 00:37:12,359
Speaker 1: over the hump from a moneyline perspective and Like I said,

786
00:37:12,400 --> 00:37:14,480
Speaker 1: I think the spread here is just about dead on.

787
00:37:14,920 --> 00:37:17,000
Speaker 4: Yeah, I make the spread of Tad higher, So I

788
00:37:17,000 --> 00:37:20,560
Speaker 4: would lane Houston not enough to play. Maybe I'll throw

789
00:37:20,600 --> 00:37:23,719
Speaker 4: them in a money line somehow because I do agree. Look,

790
00:37:23,760 --> 00:37:26,120
Speaker 4: Miami has one of those glaring weakness units, a defense

791
00:37:26,200 --> 00:37:28,799
Speaker 4: with an adjusted efficiency outside the top one hundred, and

792
00:37:28,880 --> 00:37:32,280
Speaker 4: their guards who are great, and that plays in March

793
00:37:32,840 --> 00:37:34,880
Speaker 4: and Larnek is a great coach and we've seen that

794
00:37:34,960 --> 00:37:36,759
Speaker 4: the last two tournaments with them. They made a run

795
00:37:36,840 --> 00:37:38,320
Speaker 4: last year to the lead eight. Now they're in the

796
00:37:38,320 --> 00:37:41,719
Speaker 4: sweet sixteen with a great backcourt. But there's only so

797
00:37:41,760 --> 00:37:44,600
Speaker 4: many defensive rebounds Zoomir can get in this game, and

798
00:37:44,760 --> 00:37:47,080
Speaker 4: he is really the only true rebounder on the team.

799
00:37:47,200 --> 00:37:50,640
Speaker 4: Houston should dominate the offensive glass, which is going to

800
00:37:50,680 --> 00:37:53,359
Speaker 4: be a problem for Miami with that defense, right, They're

801
00:37:53,400 --> 00:37:57,520
Speaker 4: not going to get many stops already, and if Houston's missing,

802
00:37:57,600 --> 00:37:59,920
Speaker 4: they're going to get such a high volume of offense

803
00:38:00,120 --> 00:38:03,759
Speaker 4: rebounds as they usually do and easy put backs. And

804
00:38:03,800 --> 00:38:05,640
Speaker 4: we'll see if Omer can stay out of foul trouble

805
00:38:05,640 --> 00:38:09,840
Speaker 4: as well. But those Miami guards, they really exploited Indiana's

806
00:38:10,239 --> 00:38:13,440
Speaker 4: two primary weaknesses. You can bother them with pressure and

807
00:38:13,480 --> 00:38:16,480
Speaker 4: then they struggle on the perimeter defensively, and they really

808
00:38:16,480 --> 00:38:21,000
Speaker 4: don't see elite quick guards in the Big Ten like

809
00:38:21,040 --> 00:38:21,840
Speaker 4: Miami has.

810
00:38:22,239 --> 00:38:23,239
Speaker 3: But that's not the case with.

811
00:38:23,200 --> 00:38:27,680
Speaker 4: Houston assuming full health. So Houston isn't bothered by pressure,

812
00:38:28,280 --> 00:38:32,120
Speaker 4: and so they're not going to turn it over and

813
00:38:32,800 --> 00:38:36,560
Speaker 4: you're not going to just blow by that defense with

814
00:38:36,880 --> 00:38:39,759
Speaker 4: those guards. So yeah, again, I think that the one

815
00:38:39,800 --> 00:38:41,920
Speaker 4: week unit here is the Miami defense, which will ultimately

816
00:38:42,000 --> 00:38:44,840
Speaker 4: be the difference. Maybe sass is not at one hundred percent,

817
00:38:45,320 --> 00:38:46,880
Speaker 4: so I could get this line being a bit a

818
00:38:46,960 --> 00:38:49,560
Speaker 4: tiny bit discount to where I have it, but I

819
00:38:49,560 --> 00:38:54,360
Speaker 4: think Houston prevails spread in total, I would agree are

820
00:38:54,440 --> 00:38:57,280
Speaker 4: fairly fair. The Jenny thoughts here, Yeah.

821
00:38:57,120 --> 00:39:00,720
Speaker 2: I think this is maybe a chance to get Houston

822
00:39:00,760 --> 00:39:04,279
Speaker 2: live if they go down again. Like you know, coming

823
00:39:04,320 --> 00:39:07,080
Speaker 2: into this, like what Houston team is gonna show up?

824
00:39:07,160 --> 00:39:09,880
Speaker 2: Is it the team that struggled against Northern Kentucky and

825
00:39:09,960 --> 00:39:11,360
Speaker 2: for the first half of Auburn or the team that

826
00:39:11,440 --> 00:39:14,640
Speaker 2: just went berserk in that second half against Auburn, Like

827
00:39:14,640 --> 00:39:16,040
Speaker 2: like you mentioned, like on paper, this is a great

828
00:39:16,080 --> 00:39:18,640
Speaker 2: matchup for them. They're a great offensive, rebounding team. They run

829
00:39:18,680 --> 00:39:21,600
Speaker 2: a high frequency pick and roll, which Miamy really struggles defending.

830
00:39:22,120 --> 00:39:25,480
Speaker 2: And what was interesting about Miami's win over Indiana is

831
00:39:25,600 --> 00:39:27,800
Speaker 2: they got to the rim with relative ease. They scored

832
00:39:27,880 --> 00:39:30,840
Speaker 2: forty points at the rim, but against Drake they scored

833
00:39:31,000 --> 00:39:34,120
Speaker 2: four points at the rim, So that's a huge variance

834
00:39:34,160 --> 00:39:36,239
Speaker 2: between those two. And Houston is a top thirty team

835
00:39:36,239 --> 00:39:38,480
Speaker 2: in the country in terms of points for possession allowed

836
00:39:38,480 --> 00:39:40,879
Speaker 2: at the rim, and they also defend the three point

837
00:39:41,320 --> 00:39:42,880
Speaker 2: at a top five rate as well, So it's a

838
00:39:43,000 --> 00:39:45,920
Speaker 2: very interesting match up to see how Miami is gonna,

839
00:39:45,920 --> 00:39:48,799
Speaker 2: you know, score effectively and Houston overall, they did not

840
00:39:48,800 --> 00:39:50,840
Speaker 2: shoot the ball well. Against Auburn, they just got to

841
00:39:50,880 --> 00:39:53,319
Speaker 2: the free throw line twenty nine times and hit twenty

842
00:39:53,320 --> 00:39:55,080
Speaker 2: four of them, but they just went seven of twenty.

843
00:39:54,840 --> 00:39:55,680
Speaker 3: Two from beyond the arc.

844
00:39:56,080 --> 00:39:59,080
Speaker 2: Miami against Indiana, who is not a high volume three

845
00:39:59,080 --> 00:40:02,080
Speaker 2: point shooting team. Iami allowed eleven open three pointers per

846
00:40:02,120 --> 00:40:04,960
Speaker 2: shot quality and Indiana just went eight of twenty five

847
00:40:04,960 --> 00:40:07,680
Speaker 2: from beyond the yard. So Houston is, you know, they're

848
00:40:07,680 --> 00:40:09,680
Speaker 2: only hitting around thirty four percent for the season from

849
00:40:09,680 --> 00:40:10,120
Speaker 2: beyond the arc.

850
00:40:10,160 --> 00:40:12,480
Speaker 1: They're not an awesome three point shooting team.

851
00:40:12,560 --> 00:40:14,960
Speaker 2: So I'm gonna wait and see if I can potentially

852
00:40:14,960 --> 00:40:18,239
Speaker 2: get Houston at a better number live. But you know

853
00:40:18,280 --> 00:40:20,160
Speaker 2: it obviously wouldn't shock me if Houston came out and

854
00:40:20,160 --> 00:40:23,200
Speaker 2: blew them out, given like you guys mentioned how bad

855
00:40:23,239 --> 00:40:24,680
Speaker 2: Miami's defense has been this season.

856
00:40:25,640 --> 00:40:28,000
Speaker 4: Yeah, and again another plate pace class where Houston's going

857
00:40:28,040 --> 00:40:31,480
Speaker 4: to strangle the game down. Miami prefers to get up

858
00:40:31,520 --> 00:40:33,120
Speaker 4: and down and transition and run. You can't do that

859
00:40:33,160 --> 00:40:36,759
Speaker 4: against Houston. So that's I think gonna make it even

860
00:40:36,800 --> 00:40:40,120
Speaker 4: tougher here. That's kind of the calmness I need right

861
00:40:40,120 --> 00:40:40,560
Speaker 4: at the end.

862
00:40:40,719 --> 00:40:44,080
Speaker 3: See how you did that? That was good? All right.

863
00:40:44,160 --> 00:40:48,239
Speaker 4: Let's move on to the third game on Friday night,

864
00:40:48,480 --> 00:40:53,080
Speaker 4: and that's between Princeton and Creighton. Creighton ten point favorite

865
00:40:53,120 --> 00:40:56,399
Speaker 4: here over under one forty. I know you guys don't

866
00:40:56,440 --> 00:40:58,799
Speaker 4: really have strong opinions on this game. You think the

867
00:40:58,840 --> 00:41:01,840
Speaker 4: line spreads about I would tend to agree. If I

868
00:41:01,840 --> 00:41:04,200
Speaker 4: had to play aside, I would play Creighton might throw

869
00:41:04,200 --> 00:41:06,120
Speaker 4: them in a moneyline parlay. I think this is the

870
00:41:06,200 --> 00:41:09,120
Speaker 4: end of Princeton's run. Look over the first two games,

871
00:41:09,480 --> 00:41:12,800
Speaker 4: they really slowed down. Teams that want to run aren't

872
00:41:12,800 --> 00:41:14,439
Speaker 4: comfortable in the half court, and they did a great

873
00:41:14,520 --> 00:41:17,920
Speaker 4: job in doing so. They also dominated the glass, especially

874
00:41:17,920 --> 00:41:20,480
Speaker 4: against Missouri, who's one of the worst rebounding teams in

875
00:41:20,480 --> 00:41:22,320
Speaker 4: the country. You're not gonna do that against Creyton, especially

876
00:41:22,360 --> 00:41:26,399
Speaker 4: on the offensive end. Creighton's an elite defensive rebounding team.

877
00:41:26,480 --> 00:41:28,759
Speaker 4: They also don't foul. They also run you off to

878
00:41:28,800 --> 00:41:32,040
Speaker 4: three point line. It's hard for me to find the

879
00:41:32,160 --> 00:41:36,520
Speaker 4: formula for Princeton here to give them that edge to

880
00:41:36,560 --> 00:41:39,040
Speaker 4: pull off another upset because Creighton just has so much

881
00:41:39,080 --> 00:41:43,440
Speaker 4: more talent and athleticism, and Creighton's comfortable playing in the

882
00:41:43,480 --> 00:41:50,239
Speaker 4: half court. So I just don't see Princeton continuing the run. Look,

883
00:41:50,280 --> 00:41:54,160
Speaker 4: fifteen seeds have gone. Two years ago, we saw the

884
00:41:54,239 --> 00:41:56,920
Speaker 4: second fifteen seed ever go to the Sweet sixteen. Last

885
00:41:57,000 --> 00:41:59,600
Speaker 4: year we saw the third and then go to the

886
00:41:59,640 --> 00:42:01,759
Speaker 4: Elite eight. Maybe that means we have a fifteen seed

887
00:42:01,760 --> 00:42:03,400
Speaker 4: going to the Final four. I don't see it, but

888
00:42:03,719 --> 00:42:06,279
Speaker 4: line seems about fair. Wouldn't be surprised if it just

889
00:42:06,320 --> 00:42:09,040
Speaker 4: comes down the Shenanigans in the final minute to decide

890
00:42:09,080 --> 00:42:09,439
Speaker 4: the cover.

891
00:42:10,280 --> 00:42:11,640
Speaker 3: And you guys agree.

892
00:42:11,719 --> 00:42:14,560
Speaker 4: So let's move on to the final game on Friday

893
00:42:14,640 --> 00:42:19,320
Speaker 4: night between Xavier and Texas. This gives nine to forty

894
00:42:19,360 --> 00:42:24,040
Speaker 4: five Eastern on CBS, Texas four point favorite here over

895
00:42:24,120 --> 00:42:26,560
Speaker 4: under one forty eight and a half play. I played

896
00:42:26,600 --> 00:42:28,919
Speaker 4: the over here. I think that this line talk about

897
00:42:28,920 --> 00:42:30,800
Speaker 4: some recency bias. We had the new they had the

898
00:42:31,320 --> 00:42:34,319
Speaker 4: change of ball last week. We had tight rims everywhere.

899
00:42:34,719 --> 00:42:36,719
Speaker 4: We saw that in that Xavier total came down like

900
00:42:36,760 --> 00:42:39,080
Speaker 4: six points. I had to play the over Sunday. I

901
00:42:39,080 --> 00:42:42,200
Speaker 4: was very nervous to do so. Fortunately against Pittack it

902
00:42:42,640 --> 00:42:46,000
Speaker 4: snuck over the total. I think that this total is

903
00:42:46,040 --> 00:42:48,520
Speaker 4: and I think a couple of these totals are reduced

904
00:42:48,520 --> 00:42:50,400
Speaker 4: a bit, and this one is the one I'm most

905
00:42:50,440 --> 00:42:52,560
Speaker 4: interested in because we have a lot of teams that

906
00:42:52,600 --> 00:42:54,880
Speaker 4: want to run, but they're playing teams that want to

907
00:42:54,880 --> 00:42:56,560
Speaker 4: slow it down. And like I said, I tend to

908
00:42:56,640 --> 00:42:58,120
Speaker 4: favor the teams that want to slow it down, and

909
00:42:58,160 --> 00:42:59,800
Speaker 4: I think that they have an easier time of making

910
00:42:59,840 --> 00:43:01,240
Speaker 4: it kind of game that they want.

911
00:43:01,080 --> 00:43:01,360
Speaker 3: It to be.

912
00:43:01,880 --> 00:43:04,920
Speaker 4: But in this case, Texas is more than comfortable running

913
00:43:05,480 --> 00:43:08,120
Speaker 4: up and down the court. It's kind of like in

914
00:43:08,160 --> 00:43:09,880
Speaker 4: their DNA, and they have the guards to do it.

915
00:43:09,920 --> 00:43:14,120
Speaker 4: I mean, there are a hundredth one hundredth in adjusted tempo. Xavier,

916
00:43:14,120 --> 00:43:16,759
Speaker 4: we know, wants to run I think thirty third in

917
00:43:16,800 --> 00:43:18,279
Speaker 4: the country. They'd go up and down the court. They

918
00:43:18,280 --> 00:43:21,520
Speaker 4: could score pretty much against anybody, but they have major

919
00:43:21,760 --> 00:43:27,279
Speaker 4: issues on the defensive end, especially on the perimeter with

920
00:43:27,320 --> 00:43:32,120
Speaker 4: their guards. And I think that Texas will be able

921
00:43:32,120 --> 00:43:35,080
Speaker 4: to exploit it. Xavier will score and this game will

922
00:43:35,120 --> 00:43:37,719
Speaker 4: just be up and down. Both teams are more than

923
00:43:37,760 --> 00:43:40,239
Speaker 4: comfortable in doing so. This game will be played a

924
00:43:40,280 --> 00:43:43,680
Speaker 4: two T mobile. We talked about rim unfamiliarity. Texas just

925
00:43:43,719 --> 00:43:46,320
Speaker 4: won three games here to win the Big Twelve Tournament,

926
00:43:46,360 --> 00:43:49,920
Speaker 4: same exact arena, for whatever that's worth. But if you

927
00:43:50,000 --> 00:43:54,680
Speaker 4: go back to Texas, there are let's see, there are

928
00:43:54,920 --> 00:43:57,839
Speaker 4: four teams, but they're remaining sixteen teams left in the field.

929
00:43:57,840 --> 00:43:59,920
Speaker 4: There are four the rank in the top fifteen adjusted Temple,

930
00:44:00,000 --> 00:44:03,680
Speaker 4: Alabama and Zaga Xavier. In Kansas State, Texas played two

931
00:44:03,680 --> 00:44:06,160
Speaker 4: of those three teams that combined three times. Two of

932
00:44:06,160 --> 00:44:09,720
Speaker 4: those games flew over the total. They beat Gonzaga ninety

933
00:44:09,760 --> 00:44:12,319
Speaker 4: three to seventy four, and they lost the Cantus State

934
00:44:12,360 --> 00:44:14,000
Speaker 4: one hundred and sixteen to one hundred and three. They

935
00:44:14,000 --> 00:44:16,239
Speaker 4: just had a coaching change that might explain some of

936
00:44:16,239 --> 00:44:18,680
Speaker 4: the defensive issues. But I think this will be up

937
00:44:18,719 --> 00:44:23,120
Speaker 4: and down. Both teams are going to be happy to run,

938
00:44:23,400 --> 00:44:27,279
Speaker 4: and I see major advantages for each offense. So I

939
00:44:27,320 --> 00:44:31,359
Speaker 4: think this game, I cannot see it not getting into

940
00:44:31,400 --> 00:44:34,160
Speaker 4: the seventies, with a pretty good chance of being played

941
00:44:34,160 --> 00:44:37,040
Speaker 4: into the eighties and then if needed, hopefully we get

942
00:44:37,080 --> 00:44:38,440
Speaker 4: some fouls late. But I think the overyear I think

943
00:44:38,520 --> 00:44:42,400
Speaker 4: lines pretty fair. Pjf Throt first, any thoughts.

944
00:44:42,120 --> 00:44:44,200
Speaker 2: Here, I'm starting to lean and agree with you in

945
00:44:44,200 --> 00:44:46,440
Speaker 2: the over So I was in the building for Texas Colgate,

946
00:44:46,640 --> 00:44:49,600
Speaker 2: and what I noticed is that Colgate had a relatively

947
00:44:49,680 --> 00:44:53,600
Speaker 2: easy time getting to the rim despite being undersized against Texas,

948
00:44:53,640 --> 00:44:56,040
Speaker 2: and they ended up scoring thirty of their sixty one

949
00:44:56,040 --> 00:44:57,440
Speaker 2: points in the rim. They just could not hit a

950
00:44:57,480 --> 00:44:59,520
Speaker 2: shot to save their life outside the ark, and then

951
00:44:59,680 --> 00:45:02,839
Speaker 2: s Bari Rice just got insanely hot from three point range.

952
00:45:02,880 --> 00:45:06,840
Speaker 2: Well then against Penn State, Texas goes one of thirteen

953
00:45:06,920 --> 00:45:08,439
Speaker 2: from beyond the arc, and.

954
00:45:08,680 --> 00:45:09,600
Speaker 3: Penn State it's a snail.

955
00:45:09,640 --> 00:45:12,360
Speaker 4: Penn State wants a slowly game down incredibly exactly go

956
00:45:12,440 --> 00:45:14,200
Speaker 4: if there are any offensive rebounds. They don't want you to

957
00:45:14,239 --> 00:45:15,840
Speaker 4: in transition exactly.

958
00:45:15,920 --> 00:45:17,400
Speaker 2: There were not a lot of open three pointers in

959
00:45:17,440 --> 00:45:19,560
Speaker 2: that game. Like you mentioned the issues with Xavier, I mean,

960
00:45:19,560 --> 00:45:21,600
Speaker 2: they're allowing close to thirty six percent from beyond the

961
00:45:21,640 --> 00:45:25,440
Speaker 2: arc this season, and how Texas ended up beating Penn

962
00:45:25,440 --> 00:45:27,960
Speaker 2: State was they scored thirty two points from the mid range.

963
00:45:27,960 --> 00:45:30,400
Speaker 2: They're obviously a very high frequency mid range team in

964
00:45:30,400 --> 00:45:32,520
Speaker 2: the country. Well, Xavier is three hundred and seventeen in

965
00:45:32,520 --> 00:45:34,840
Speaker 2: the country defending from the mid range, lying around forty

966
00:45:34,840 --> 00:45:37,719
Speaker 2: percent for the season. And the flip side of that is,

967
00:45:37,719 --> 00:45:40,160
Speaker 2: like you mentioned, yeah, Zavier likes to run. They don't

968
00:45:40,200 --> 00:45:42,000
Speaker 2: attempt a lot of three pointers, but when they do,

969
00:45:42,040 --> 00:45:44,400
Speaker 2: they're hitting him at a top five percentage in the country.

970
00:45:44,480 --> 00:45:45,880
Speaker 2: A lot of their offense is designed to get the

971
00:45:45,920 --> 00:45:48,640
Speaker 2: ball down low, run through post upsets, and they are

972
00:45:48,680 --> 00:45:51,360
Speaker 2: also our top one hundred team in terms of utilizing

973
00:45:51,360 --> 00:45:52,960
Speaker 2: the pick and roll, and they're actually top forty in

974
00:45:52,960 --> 00:45:55,080
Speaker 2: the country in points possession off of that pick and roll.

975
00:45:55,440 --> 00:45:58,160
Speaker 2: Texas is a very average team at defending the pick

976
00:45:58,200 --> 00:46:00,759
Speaker 2: and roll, like already mentioned, like they're they haven't been

977
00:46:00,880 --> 00:46:02,839
Speaker 2: very good in this tournament at defending at the rim.

978
00:46:02,960 --> 00:46:05,919
Speaker 2: So I think both offenses will have success. Like you mentioned,

979
00:46:05,920 --> 00:46:07,640
Speaker 2: it's going to be a very up and down type game,

980
00:46:07,760 --> 00:46:09,960
Speaker 2: so I tend to agree with you, so I'll probably

981
00:46:10,040 --> 00:46:12,760
Speaker 2: end up probably end up taking the over as well.

982
00:46:12,960 --> 00:46:16,080
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, the perimeter defense of like Kunkole and

983
00:46:16,120 --> 00:46:19,759
Speaker 4: Boom can really be exploited. Texas might be able to

984
00:46:19,760 --> 00:46:21,879
Speaker 4: back them down to and post up, but they can't

985
00:46:21,880 --> 00:46:24,160
Speaker 4: stop anyone for getting into the paint. And Texas is

986
00:46:24,200 --> 00:46:27,040
Speaker 4: just a team full of tough shot makers and they

987
00:46:27,160 --> 00:46:29,280
Speaker 4: just can thrive in the mid range and make tough shots,

988
00:46:29,280 --> 00:46:31,560
Speaker 4: make contestant shots, but especially if you're going to let

989
00:46:31,560 --> 00:46:33,680
Speaker 4: them blow by you and pull up, and that's what

990
00:46:33,719 --> 00:46:35,920
Speaker 4: I think they'll be able to do all game. Mike

991
00:46:36,080 --> 00:46:39,080
Speaker 4: wearing the burn orange today, are you backing the Horns here?

992
00:46:39,640 --> 00:46:41,120
Speaker 1: I am. I think I'm going to go with the

993
00:46:41,120 --> 00:46:43,400
Speaker 1: parlay them on the money line and over. You condence

994
00:46:43,520 --> 00:46:45,759
Speaker 1: me on the total. You know, there's six to zero

995
00:46:45,800 --> 00:46:47,880
Speaker 1: to one against the spread in their last seven games.

996
00:46:47,920 --> 00:46:50,320
Speaker 1: The only push there was against Penn State, which is

997
00:46:50,400 --> 00:46:52,200
Speaker 1: arguably the hottest team in the country. So that was

998
00:46:52,239 --> 00:46:55,240
Speaker 1: a very impressive round of thirty two win in my opinion.

999
00:46:55,680 --> 00:46:59,239
Speaker 1: And yeah, it took a four point play late exactly.

1000
00:46:59,360 --> 00:47:02,080
Speaker 1: So when you look at what they have from a

1001
00:47:02,160 --> 00:47:04,799
Speaker 1: roster perspective, the fact that Dylan de Sue has all

1002
00:47:04,840 --> 00:47:06,920
Speaker 1: of a sudden blown up. He's coming off back to

1003
00:47:07,000 --> 00:47:10,640
Speaker 1: back double doubles, score twenty eight against Penn State. I

1004
00:47:10,680 --> 00:47:14,160
Speaker 1: think it makes their offense at operate at such a

1005
00:47:14,200 --> 00:47:15,839
Speaker 1: high level. I think you can argue that they're a

1006
00:47:15,840 --> 00:47:17,840
Speaker 1: top ten offense right now the way that they're playing.

1007
00:47:18,200 --> 00:47:20,160
Speaker 1: Because of that, and you look at the Xavier defense

1008
00:47:20,160 --> 00:47:23,240
Speaker 1: as one hundred and fiftieth an effective field goal percentage allowed.

1009
00:47:23,680 --> 00:47:26,400
Speaker 1: I think Texas is going to be able to eventually

1010
00:47:26,480 --> 00:47:28,560
Speaker 1: pull away in this game, but I don't want to

1011
00:47:28,560 --> 00:47:31,240
Speaker 1: necessarily mess around with a back door or a situation

1012
00:47:31,320 --> 00:47:34,400
Speaker 1: where there's been some weird backdoors already in this tournament.

1013
00:47:34,480 --> 00:47:37,000
Speaker 1: The tc U Gonzagowan, I think we'll live on forever.

1014
00:47:37,880 --> 00:47:39,279
Speaker 1: I'm just gonna go ahead with the money line in

1015
00:47:39,280 --> 00:47:39,960
Speaker 1: parlay with over.

1016
00:47:40,840 --> 00:47:43,600
Speaker 4: Yeah, I think the in certain steps, we're still sleeping

1017
00:47:43,640 --> 00:47:44,680
Speaker 4: on Texas in a way.

1018
00:47:44,800 --> 00:47:45,800
Speaker 3: To Sue has turned.

1019
00:47:45,600 --> 00:47:48,560
Speaker 4: Into an absolute monster, And you're right, it could be

1020
00:47:48,560 --> 00:47:51,239
Speaker 4: one of those games where what's the glaring weakness, what's

1021
00:47:51,280 --> 00:47:54,520
Speaker 4: the glaring week unit in this game? It's the xavior defense,

1022
00:47:54,800 --> 00:47:57,520
Speaker 4: which ultimately could be the difference. All right, before we

1023
00:47:57,520 --> 00:47:59,959
Speaker 4: get out of here, let's go with our favorite back

1024
00:48:00,440 --> 00:48:04,640
Speaker 4: on Friday night, I will start things. I'm gonna go

1025
00:48:04,680 --> 00:48:06,800
Speaker 4: to San Diego State. I think it's too many points

1026
00:48:06,800 --> 00:48:10,239
Speaker 4: against Alabama. They can defend at the rim with their

1027
00:48:10,239 --> 00:48:14,319
Speaker 4: elite length. They've been great contesting threes all year, and

1028
00:48:14,360 --> 00:48:16,120
Speaker 4: their offense can thrive in the mid range. That's what

1029
00:48:16,160 --> 00:48:20,760
Speaker 4: you have to do against the analytical monsters of Alabama,

1030
00:48:21,280 --> 00:48:23,319
Speaker 4: who are just rim and three, rim and three, riom

1031
00:48:23,400 --> 00:48:25,840
Speaker 4: and three and make you live in the mid range.

1032
00:48:25,880 --> 00:48:28,120
Speaker 4: San Diego State, I think can also control tempo here.

1033
00:48:28,840 --> 00:48:30,800
Speaker 4: I love the extra prep time for Dutcher, one of

1034
00:48:30,840 --> 00:48:33,560
Speaker 4: the best game planners in the country. I think this

1035
00:48:33,600 --> 00:48:36,120
Speaker 4: game will be played more at San Diego State's pace

1036
00:48:36,840 --> 00:48:39,320
Speaker 4: than Alabama's. Who wants to get out in transition. I

1037
00:48:39,360 --> 00:48:42,840
Speaker 4: think over eighteen percent of their possessions they do, so.

1038
00:48:42,920 --> 00:48:44,759
Speaker 4: San Diego State only allows teams to get on in

1039
00:48:44,800 --> 00:48:47,600
Speaker 4: transition around twelve percent of the time, So I think

1040
00:48:47,640 --> 00:48:50,120
Speaker 4: it's too many points. I'm gonna ride with a dog

1041
00:48:50,160 --> 00:48:52,560
Speaker 4: here against the one seed BJA favor bet on Friday.

1042
00:48:53,040 --> 00:48:55,040
Speaker 2: I'm also gonna go San Diego State at plus seven

1043
00:48:55,080 --> 00:48:56,319
Speaker 2: and a half. I think they'll be able to slow

1044
00:48:56,360 --> 00:48:58,960
Speaker 2: the pace down. Alabama's shown throughout the SEC Tournament that

1045
00:48:59,000 --> 00:49:01,600
Speaker 2: they can be slowed down, and like you mentioned, san

1046
00:49:01,640 --> 00:49:06,040
Speaker 2: Diego State offensively profiles so well analytically for what Alabama's

1047
00:49:06,080 --> 00:49:07,840
Speaker 2: weaknesses are. So I'm riding with you and I like

1048
00:49:07,840 --> 00:49:09,280
Speaker 2: San Diego State plus seven and a half.

1049
00:49:10,680 --> 00:49:13,960
Speaker 1: Mike, just to add a little bit of creativity to

1050
00:49:14,040 --> 00:49:16,080
Speaker 1: the San Diego State play, I'm going to take them

1051
00:49:16,120 --> 00:49:19,080
Speaker 1: plus seven and a half and parlay it with creating moneyline.

1052
00:49:19,080 --> 00:49:20,600
Speaker 1: It's going to move it from minus one to ten

1053
00:49:20,719 --> 00:49:24,000
Speaker 1: to about plus one thirty five. So in terms of

1054
00:49:24,000 --> 00:49:26,080
Speaker 1: the plays I really like. I believe San Diego State

1055
00:49:26,280 --> 00:49:29,000
Speaker 1: has a great chance to upset Alabama, So seven and

1056
00:49:29,000 --> 00:49:31,920
Speaker 1: a half makes me feel great. And then Creten in general,

1057
00:49:32,040 --> 00:49:33,480
Speaker 1: I think they're going to be able to just run

1058
00:49:33,520 --> 00:49:36,160
Speaker 1: past Princeton because of what they're able to do in

1059
00:49:36,200 --> 00:49:38,400
Speaker 1: the defensive glass. There's not going to be extra opportunities

1060
00:49:38,400 --> 00:49:40,720
Speaker 1: for the Tigers that I think at this point. It's

1061
00:49:40,880 --> 00:49:43,080
Speaker 1: they're finally in deep water and they're going to run

1062
00:49:43,120 --> 00:49:45,320
Speaker 1: up against one of the hottest teams in the country,

1063
00:49:45,400 --> 00:49:47,279
Speaker 1: so I'll go ahead and put those two together for

1064
00:49:47,320 --> 00:49:48,840
Speaker 1: a plus one thirty five payout.

1065
00:49:49,680 --> 00:49:50,040
Speaker 3: Love it.

1066
00:49:50,440 --> 00:49:53,719
Speaker 4: Thanks to all of you for tuning in. By the way,

1067
00:49:54,239 --> 00:49:56,440
Speaker 4: I have form of appreciation. We do some giveaways for

1068
00:49:56,480 --> 00:50:01,319
Speaker 4: some reviews. Recently tell us star one that made me laugh.

1069
00:50:01,520 --> 00:50:04,880
Speaker 4: Good stuff there, Tmullin, tjmull and ten. The only thing

1070
00:50:04,920 --> 00:50:07,200
Speaker 4: better than this podcast visiting Lexon and finding every bar

1071
00:50:07,320 --> 00:50:10,200
Speaker 4: is seven dollars old fashions. Reach out, by the way,

1072
00:50:10,200 --> 00:50:14,439
Speaker 4: reach out to our producer or myself, Matt Mitchell, old

1073
00:50:14,480 --> 00:50:19,240
Speaker 4: boy Uncle Mitchell, myself for gear. Let's go DK thirty

1074
00:50:19,239 --> 00:50:21,160
Speaker 4: two E maul I got to show a love of

1075
00:50:21,200 --> 00:50:23,840
Speaker 4: Mike candastate Wildcats fans after I trashed them on Twitter

1076
00:50:23,920 --> 00:50:28,080
Speaker 4: last week. T O Money four and Mother Trucker ten.

1077
00:50:28,840 --> 00:50:31,480
Speaker 4: Shout out to all the truckers out there, especially Mother

1078
00:50:31,520 --> 00:50:35,320
Speaker 4: Trucker ten listening on the road. Good stuff but thanks Mike,

1079
00:50:35,400 --> 00:50:37,239
Speaker 4: Thanks BJ, thanks for writing of any teas on the

1080
00:50:37,280 --> 00:50:38,960
Speaker 4: back end. Thanks again to all of you. Thanks for

1081
00:50:38,960 --> 00:50:41,680
Speaker 4: our sponsor at MGM. Make sure you subscribe on subscribe,

1082
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Speaker 4: subscribe to a friend telling end to me leave a

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Speaker 4: review again. We do we do giveaways. Five star review

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Speaker 4: I don't care what you say, just leave when it

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00:50:49,719 --> 00:50:52,000
Speaker 4: really helps us out. But it's time for us to

1086
00:50:52,040 --> 00:50:54,760
Speaker 4: go find some last minute winters. Enjoy the Sweet sixteen.

1087
00:50:54,760 --> 00:50:56,520
Speaker 4: I hope to see some of you at the watch

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00:50:56,640 --> 00:50:57,879
Speaker 4: party in Hoboken on.

1089
00:50:57,800 --> 00:50:59,879
Speaker 3: Saturday night for the eight. We won't have a pot

1090
00:51:00,120 --> 00:51:00,840
Speaker 3: cast for this weekend.

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00:51:00,840 --> 00:51:04,160
Speaker 4: We'll be back next weekend with the final four, and

1092
00:51:04,239 --> 00:51:06,200
Speaker 4: of course we'll have Big Bets on Campus Live ten

1093
00:51:06,239 --> 00:51:09,560
Speaker 4: thirty eight Eastern Thursday, Friday and Saturday with myself and

1094
00:51:09,560 --> 00:51:12,160
Speaker 4: the guys from Three Men we breathing the slate. Good

1095
00:51:12,239 --> 00:51:15,280
Speaker 4: luck on all of your wagers. We'll see you next week.

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00:51:16,040 --> 00:51:20,040
Speaker 3: Cheers.

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00:51:28,000 --> 00:51:32,560
Speaker 1: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

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