1
00:00:03,200 --> 00:00:06,480
Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Daybreak Asia for this Monday, February twenty

2
00:00:06,519 --> 00:00:10,680
Speaker 1: seventh in Hong Kong, Sunday February twenty sixth in New York,

3
00:00:10,720 --> 00:00:13,760
Speaker 1: and coming up today. Asian stocks may suffer after that

4
00:00:13,880 --> 00:00:17,119
Speaker 1: hotter than forecast inflation data. Here in the US, the

5
00:00:17,120 --> 00:00:21,160
Speaker 1: biggest chipmaking countries meet to ensure a steady supply chain,

6
00:00:21,360 --> 00:00:25,200
Speaker 1: and China's Renaissance says it's missing chairman has been assisting

7
00:00:25,320 --> 00:00:29,560
Speaker 1: Chinese investigators. Our report, the US Energy Department has moderate

8
00:00:29,600 --> 00:00:32,880
Speaker 1: confidence that COVID started at a lab misshapp in China,

9
00:00:33,200 --> 00:00:37,320
Speaker 1: Macao eas's mask restrictions. US continues to put pressure on

10
00:00:37,360 --> 00:00:40,879
Speaker 1: shijimping not to provide weapons to Russia. Imed Baxter with

11
00:00:40,960 --> 00:00:46,920
Speaker 1: Global News. That's all straight ahead on Bloomberg Daybreak Asia,

12
00:00:47,080 --> 00:00:49,720
Speaker 1: the business news you need to start your day in

13
00:00:49,760 --> 00:00:53,920
Speaker 1: just one fifteen minute podcast available on Apples, Spotify, the

14
00:00:54,000 --> 00:01:00,600
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Business app and everywhere you get your podcasts. Good morning,

15
00:01:00,680 --> 00:01:03,480
Speaker 1: I'm Brian Curtis and I'm Dog Prisoner. Here are the

16
00:01:03,520 --> 00:01:08,080
Speaker 1: stories we're following today. After a hotter than expected PC

17
00:01:08,440 --> 00:01:11,160
Speaker 1: report in the United States, FED officials came out and

18
00:01:11,200 --> 00:01:15,000
Speaker 1: flagged the risk of sticky inflation. Cleveland FED chief Lorettamesters

19
00:01:15,000 --> 00:01:18,360
Speaker 1: said policymakers need to do a little more to ensure

20
00:01:18,480 --> 00:01:22,520
Speaker 1: inflation is moving back down. Her Boston counterparts Susan Collins

21
00:01:22,560 --> 00:01:24,959
Speaker 1: said that the FED has to keep raising rates to

22
00:01:25,040 --> 00:01:28,600
Speaker 1: get them to a sufficiently restrictive level, and Saint Louis

23
00:01:28,600 --> 00:01:31,640
Speaker 1: FED President Jim Bullard also urged the Fed to move

24
00:01:31,720 --> 00:01:37,360
Speaker 1: quickly on interest rates re establish credibility. Now sometimes I

25
00:01:37,480 --> 00:01:41,760
Speaker 1: use the phrase more game theory, less econometrics. Is what

26
00:01:41,920 --> 00:01:44,920
Speaker 1: you really want is the establishment of the credibility of

27
00:01:44,920 --> 00:01:48,040
Speaker 1: the two percent inflation target. There's a certain amount of

28
00:01:49,160 --> 00:01:53,680
Speaker 1: demonstration to markets if you move quickly. In a new study,

29
00:01:53,680 --> 00:01:56,920
Speaker 1: Wall Street economists and academics argue that the Fed will

30
00:01:56,920 --> 00:02:01,000
Speaker 1: need to inflict some economic pain to get pass under control.

31
00:02:01,280 --> 00:02:04,720
Speaker 1: The study included a series of simulations to predict likely

32
00:02:04,760 --> 00:02:08,519
Speaker 1: paths for the benchmark policy rates. Now, a few moments ago,

33
00:02:08,639 --> 00:02:12,280
Speaker 1: Doug mentioned five point four percent that was being predicted

34
00:02:12,320 --> 00:02:15,680
Speaker 1: as the terminal rate. Computer models is suggesting from this study.

35
00:02:15,680 --> 00:02:17,959
Speaker 1: We just mentioned that rates would peak ay the five

36
00:02:18,000 --> 00:02:21,239
Speaker 1: point six percent, six percent, or even six and a

37
00:02:21,280 --> 00:02:24,480
Speaker 1: half percent in the second half of this year. Meantime,

38
00:02:24,520 --> 00:02:27,760
Speaker 1: we also heard from a Bloomberg opinion columnist to Mohammad

39
00:02:27,800 --> 00:02:31,160
Speaker 1: el Aryan, who is saying financial markets are starting to

40
00:02:31,280 --> 00:02:34,120
Speaker 1: doubt whether the FED can bring inflation down to that

41
00:02:34,160 --> 00:02:38,040
Speaker 1: two percent target. He says, inflation indicators are heading very

42
00:02:38,080 --> 00:02:40,840
Speaker 1: simply in the wrong direction. There's a lot of things

43
00:02:40,840 --> 00:02:43,679
Speaker 1: going on the supply side that would argue for a

44
00:02:43,720 --> 00:02:46,359
Speaker 1: slightly high inflation target. Now, of course, the FED cannot

45
00:02:46,400 --> 00:02:49,519
Speaker 1: change its inflation target after missing it for so long,

46
00:02:49,840 --> 00:02:52,560
Speaker 1: so they have a real problem there. I think the

47
00:02:52,600 --> 00:02:56,040
Speaker 1: best we can hope for, honestly, is stable inflation through

48
00:02:56,080 --> 00:02:58,280
Speaker 1: the four Now. El Aryan went on to say that

49
00:02:58,320 --> 00:03:01,720
Speaker 1: if the FED continues to pursue it's two percent inflation target,

50
00:03:01,840 --> 00:03:05,519
Speaker 1: fremendous pain will be inflicted on the American economy. Ran

51
00:03:06,200 --> 00:03:08,240
Speaker 1: In some other matters, we're getting word that the so

52
00:03:08,400 --> 00:03:11,960
Speaker 1: called Fab four Chip Group has held its first senior

53
00:03:12,000 --> 00:03:16,840
Speaker 1: officials meeting to talk about semiconductor global supply. Bloomberg's Denise

54
00:03:16,840 --> 00:03:20,600
Speaker 1: Pellegrini's tracking developments. The February sixteenth video meeting of the

55
00:03:20,639 --> 00:03:23,720
Speaker 1: Alliance of the US, Taiwan, Japan, and South Korea focused

56
00:03:23,720 --> 00:03:26,720
Speaker 1: on supply chain resilience, and sources say the group, also

57
00:03:26,760 --> 00:03:29,600
Speaker 1: called the Chip Four, talked about an early warning system

58
00:03:29,680 --> 00:03:33,360
Speaker 1: to ensure study supply, but did not talk about export controls.

59
00:03:33,560 --> 00:03:36,560
Speaker 1: Taiwan and South Korea agreed to focus on manufacturing, Japan

60
00:03:36,600 --> 00:03:39,320
Speaker 1: on materials, the US on its role as a major market,

61
00:03:39,400 --> 00:03:41,880
Speaker 1: and the Biden administration has been trying to get global

62
00:03:41,920 --> 00:03:45,000
Speaker 1: partners to agree to curb sales on advanced chip equipment

63
00:03:45,000 --> 00:03:49,200
Speaker 1: to China so China can't challenge US dominance globally so easily.

64
00:03:49,360 --> 00:03:51,920
Speaker 1: And Taiwan is home to the world's largest contract chipmaker,

65
00:03:52,080 --> 00:03:54,600
Speaker 1: and President Seinwen has pledged in the past to make

66
00:03:54,640 --> 00:03:57,160
Speaker 1: sure partners have ample supply of what she is called

67
00:03:57,360 --> 00:04:01,240
Speaker 1: democracy chips. Denise Pellegrin Bloomberg day Break in India, the

68
00:04:01,320 --> 00:04:04,760
Speaker 1: G twenty meetings have wrapped up with no consensus agreement.

69
00:04:04,880 --> 00:04:07,440
Speaker 1: We have more from Bloomberg's Van Men. The world's top

70
00:04:07,480 --> 00:04:10,920
Speaker 1: finance chis failed to agree on a final statement. That's

71
00:04:10,960 --> 00:04:14,200
Speaker 1: because Russia and China disagree with two paragraphs on the

72
00:04:14,280 --> 00:04:18,279
Speaker 1: Ukraine War that happened clear by all other members. German

73
00:04:18,400 --> 00:04:21,720
Speaker 1: Finance Minister Christian Leonards said a shift in attitude by

74
00:04:21,800 --> 00:04:25,440
Speaker 1: China was very regrettable. There was also some disagreement on

75
00:04:25,520 --> 00:04:29,760
Speaker 1: debt restructuring and obligations by various kinds of creditors, but

76
00:04:29,880 --> 00:04:34,120
Speaker 1: on most other topics participants seem to be aligned. Leaders

77
00:04:34,160 --> 00:04:37,560
Speaker 1: called fighting inflation a top priority. In Hong Kong. I'm

78
00:04:37,560 --> 00:04:42,280
Speaker 1: Ivan Man Bloomberg Daybreak Asia, China Renaissance says it's missing

79
00:04:42,360 --> 00:04:47,000
Speaker 1: chairman Bao Fan, has been assisting in an unspecified Chinese investigation.

80
00:04:47,320 --> 00:04:51,080
Speaker 1: We get more from Bloomberg's David Englaze. China Renaissance says

81
00:04:51,200 --> 00:04:54,600
Speaker 1: it has learned that Bao is cooperating in the probe,

82
00:04:54,839 --> 00:04:57,840
Speaker 1: but in a statement, the firm suggests that it has

83
00:04:57,920 --> 00:05:00,159
Speaker 1: not been in touch with Bao and does not know

84
00:05:00,360 --> 00:05:04,040
Speaker 1: where he actually is. The well known executive disappeared earlier

85
00:05:04,080 --> 00:05:08,039
Speaker 1: this month, unnerving China's business elite. Bao has been the

86
00:05:08,120 --> 00:05:11,680
Speaker 1: go to financier for some of the country's biggest companies,

87
00:05:11,720 --> 00:05:15,919
Speaker 1: and his disappearances race speculation of increased scrutiny for the

88
00:05:16,000 --> 00:05:20,479
Speaker 1: nation's finance industry. Several big lenders have requested more information.

89
00:05:20,640 --> 00:05:24,599
Speaker 1: They include BOCOM, China, Citic Bank, and China Merchants Bank.

90
00:05:24,800 --> 00:05:28,160
Speaker 1: In Hong Kong, I'm David Ingless bloom Brick, Day Break Asia,

91
00:05:28,240 --> 00:05:31,200
Speaker 1: and again I'm Brian Curtis along with Doug Krisner. Doug,

92
00:05:31,440 --> 00:05:35,599
Speaker 1: when the data changes, investors can be expected to change,

93
00:05:35,600 --> 00:05:38,560
Speaker 1: and we've seen that happening with the tough commentary from

94
00:05:38,600 --> 00:05:42,280
Speaker 1: the Fed in the inflation data. I would say, the data.

95
00:05:42,640 --> 00:05:46,640
Speaker 1: You can say that maybe the data is more important

96
00:05:46,640 --> 00:05:49,240
Speaker 1: than the Fed, which you have to admit all along

97
00:05:49,279 --> 00:05:52,840
Speaker 1: has been vigilant. Well, the Fed has been vigilant, I

98
00:05:52,880 --> 00:05:55,240
Speaker 1: would say, but there was a gap between what the

99
00:05:55,279 --> 00:05:57,760
Speaker 1: market was in pricing in in terms of a view

100
00:05:57,760 --> 00:06:00,800
Speaker 1: on inflation and what the FED thought. There was a

101
00:06:00,800 --> 00:06:03,400
Speaker 1: sharp pivot, and Jim Bullard, who was the head of

102
00:06:03,400 --> 00:06:06,960
Speaker 1: the Saint Louis FED Bank, was saying that yes, maybe

103
00:06:07,000 --> 00:06:09,960
Speaker 1: the Fed had some room to dial back. So the

104
00:06:10,080 --> 00:06:13,400
Speaker 1: kind of the inflection point wasn't the issue insomuch as

105
00:06:14,000 --> 00:06:17,640
Speaker 1: inflation has really remained stubbornly high. There was a decline,

106
00:06:17,960 --> 00:06:20,160
Speaker 1: but we remain at elevated levels. And I point that

107
00:06:20,200 --> 00:06:22,640
Speaker 1: out because when we were talking about the dollar right now,

108
00:06:22,640 --> 00:06:24,720
Speaker 1: the big question is whether or not the dollar can

109
00:06:24,760 --> 00:06:28,200
Speaker 1: manage further gains. It may be difficult because what the

110
00:06:28,279 --> 00:06:30,480
Speaker 1: market is thinking and what the Fed seemed to be

111
00:06:30,520 --> 00:06:33,880
Speaker 1: thinking are more in alignment right now. Yeah, I think

112
00:06:33,880 --> 00:06:36,160
Speaker 1: that's a fair point. I think we do need to

113
00:06:36,200 --> 00:06:39,039
Speaker 1: say though, it is one month's data that marked a

114
00:06:39,080 --> 00:06:41,960
Speaker 1: big change January, so we'll see whether that continues when

115
00:06:42,000 --> 00:06:44,960
Speaker 1: we look at what happens with the data in February

116
00:06:45,040 --> 00:06:48,640
Speaker 1: and then even after that in March. And also in

117
00:06:48,680 --> 00:06:50,880
Speaker 1: addition to the inflation data, we've had a lot of

118
00:06:50,920 --> 00:06:55,440
Speaker 1: other factors that have played into selldown in risk assets,

119
00:06:55,800 --> 00:06:59,159
Speaker 1: the anniversary of the Ukraine War, the uneven nature of

120
00:06:59,240 --> 00:07:02,240
Speaker 1: China's room. We've also seen a big sell off in

121
00:07:02,320 --> 00:07:06,280
Speaker 1: tech here of late, and then also US China relations,

122
00:07:06,279 --> 00:07:08,640
Speaker 1: so there's a lot going on here. Well. Speaking of China,

123
00:07:08,720 --> 00:07:11,200
Speaker 1: the NPC meeting will kick off on Friday, and I

124
00:07:11,200 --> 00:07:13,160
Speaker 1: think it's fair to say that markets right now are

125
00:07:13,160 --> 00:07:16,520
Speaker 1: expecting on shore stocks to continue to do better than

126
00:07:16,760 --> 00:07:19,800
Speaker 1: Hong Kong listed chairs because it is likely that the

127
00:07:19,840 --> 00:07:22,760
Speaker 1: government's going to roll out some new stimulus. Yeah, we

128
00:07:22,800 --> 00:07:26,000
Speaker 1: are in full correction mode with the Hanksang Index, which

129
00:07:26,080 --> 00:07:28,800
Speaker 1: is interesting around ten percenters. So it's been a rough

130
00:07:28,840 --> 00:07:31,560
Speaker 1: period here in February. All right, it's time now for

131
00:07:31,680 --> 00:07:36,680
Speaker 1: global news. The US Energy Department is saying that the

132
00:07:36,800 --> 00:07:41,880
Speaker 1: COVID pandemics origin was most likely a laboratory league misshapp

133
00:07:42,120 --> 00:07:44,000
Speaker 1: in China. Let's get to Head Baxter in the nine

134
00:07:44,160 --> 00:07:47,160
Speaker 1: sixty news room for details. Head. Yeah, that's right, Brian.

135
00:07:47,200 --> 00:07:49,480
Speaker 1: This is a classified document of the Wall Street Journal

136
00:07:49,520 --> 00:07:52,640
Speaker 1: reports one of several, but Energy believes that it was

137
00:07:52,720 --> 00:07:55,400
Speaker 1: due to a mishap at a biological lab. As you say.

138
00:07:55,520 --> 00:07:59,160
Speaker 1: National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan on CNN says this is

139
00:07:59,200 --> 00:08:02,320
Speaker 1: part of an ongoing investigation. The reference to the Department

140
00:08:02,360 --> 00:08:06,760
Speaker 1: of Energy. President Biden specifically requested that the National Labs,

141
00:08:06,840 --> 00:08:09,440
Speaker 1: which are part of the Department of Energy be brought

142
00:08:09,480 --> 00:08:13,440
Speaker 1: into this assessment because he wants to put every tool

143
00:08:14,000 --> 00:08:17,600
Speaker 1: at use to be able to figure out what happened here. Yes,

144
00:08:17,680 --> 00:08:20,560
Speaker 1: Sullivan says, key members of Congress will be involved in

145
00:08:20,560 --> 00:08:23,080
Speaker 1: the loop. Now. Macau says, by the way, it is

146
00:08:23,080 --> 00:08:26,320
Speaker 1: easing its masking policy, citing what it calls a stable

147
00:08:26,360 --> 00:08:30,360
Speaker 1: COVID nineteen situation of the territory. Starting today, people will

148
00:08:30,400 --> 00:08:34,280
Speaker 1: not be required to wear masks while outdoors. As China's

149
00:08:34,280 --> 00:08:37,439
Speaker 1: president Chiesi and paying ready to travel to Moscow, Uscia

150
00:08:37,520 --> 00:08:41,079
Speaker 1: Director William Burns on CBS has heard here on Bloomberg

151
00:08:41,120 --> 00:08:45,120
Speaker 1: says there's still the open question about supplying weapons to Russia. Well,

152
00:08:45,160 --> 00:08:49,600
Speaker 1: we're confident that the Chinese leadership is considering the provision

153
00:08:49,640 --> 00:08:52,880
Speaker 1: of lethal equipment. We also don't see that a final

154
00:08:52,920 --> 00:08:56,040
Speaker 1: decision has been made yet, and we don't see evidence

155
00:08:56,080 --> 00:08:59,760
Speaker 1: of actual shipments of lethal equipment, and Burns says that

156
00:08:59,880 --> 00:09:02,360
Speaker 1: is why it is very important that President and Secretary

157
00:09:02,360 --> 00:09:06,040
Speaker 1: of State blank and keep emphasizing what the consequences would

158
00:09:06,040 --> 00:09:09,240
Speaker 1: be if arms did flow that way. Meanwhile, Burne says

159
00:09:09,240 --> 00:09:13,160
Speaker 1: intelligence is showing Russian President Putin isolating himself with just

160
00:09:13,240 --> 00:09:16,520
Speaker 1: a handful of advisers, a sense of cockiness in Eubrius,

161
00:09:17,840 --> 00:09:21,080
Speaker 1: a sense, I think reflecting Putin's own view, his own

162
00:09:21,120 --> 00:09:23,800
Speaker 1: belief today that he can make time work for him,

163
00:09:24,240 --> 00:09:27,280
Speaker 1: that he believes he can grind down the Ukrainians, that

164
00:09:27,360 --> 00:09:31,240
Speaker 1: he can wear down our European allies, that political fatigue

165
00:09:31,240 --> 00:09:33,800
Speaker 1: will eventually sit in and we'll just keep sending his

166
00:09:33,880 --> 00:09:38,120
Speaker 1: military and weaponry to fight. New York City remembering today

167
00:09:38,120 --> 00:09:41,000
Speaker 1: of the nineteen ninety three terrorist attack on the World

168
00:09:41,000 --> 00:09:44,040
Speaker 1: Trade Center. More than one thousand people were injured when

169
00:09:44,080 --> 00:09:46,760
Speaker 1: a van loaded with twelve hundred pounds of explosives was

170
00:09:47,200 --> 00:09:51,040
Speaker 1: detonated under the North Tower. A tower remained until it

171
00:09:51,160 --> 00:09:53,320
Speaker 1: was taken down a nine to eleven eight years later.

172
00:09:53,600 --> 00:09:56,920
Speaker 1: Governor Kathy hokel at the memorial today, words that I

173
00:09:57,000 --> 00:10:01,839
Speaker 1: can give will never he'll the scars, the pain, but

174
00:10:02,040 --> 00:10:04,800
Speaker 1: just know that the memory of your loved one will

175
00:10:04,840 --> 00:10:08,200
Speaker 1: never ever dissipate. It is something we in New York

176
00:10:08,559 --> 00:10:12,640
Speaker 1: will always ensure that the memory is never lost. Six

177
00:10:12,679 --> 00:10:16,839
Speaker 1: people did lose their lives on that day thirty years ago.

178
00:10:17,640 --> 00:10:20,520
Speaker 1: Global News powered by more than twenty seven hundred journalists

179
00:10:20,520 --> 00:10:22,960
Speaker 1: and analysts in over one hundred and twenty countries. In

180
00:10:23,080 --> 00:10:27,599
Speaker 1: San Francisco, I'm at Baxter and this is Bloomberg. This

181
00:10:27,720 --> 00:10:31,120
Speaker 1: is Bloomberg Gaberkasia and Brian Curtis along with Rishad Salamat.

182
00:10:31,120 --> 00:10:33,840
Speaker 1: Our guest is David Chow, global market strategists for the

183
00:10:33,880 --> 00:10:37,559
Speaker 1: Asia Pacific at Investco. David, we talked about a lot

184
00:10:37,600 --> 00:10:40,720
Speaker 1: of these uncertain factors all of a sudden, really hitting

185
00:10:40,800 --> 00:10:44,480
Speaker 1: risk assets. Are you reducing exposure here and if so,

186
00:10:44,600 --> 00:10:49,440
Speaker 1: how much? I think that it makes sense that investors

187
00:10:49,440 --> 00:10:53,880
Speaker 1: are a bit cautious given the higher than an expected

188
00:10:53,920 --> 00:10:57,240
Speaker 1: inflation print that we've seen and some of the unevenness

189
00:10:57,240 --> 00:11:00,880
Speaker 1: in China's reopening. And I think this is healthy given

190
00:11:01,760 --> 00:11:04,400
Speaker 1: you know how well risk as it have perform from

191
00:11:04,400 --> 00:11:06,320
Speaker 1: the start of the gate this year. And I think

192
00:11:06,360 --> 00:11:09,960
Speaker 1: that we're having a moment where investors sess out some

193
00:11:10,000 --> 00:11:13,160
Speaker 1: of the risks and headwinds that the market faces. And

194
00:11:13,240 --> 00:11:15,640
Speaker 1: I think that this is this is to be expected.

195
00:11:16,520 --> 00:11:18,440
Speaker 1: I mean quite in sympitive. It was just a case

196
00:11:18,480 --> 00:11:20,720
Speaker 1: of getting out of the gates too far, too fast.

197
00:11:22,160 --> 00:11:25,439
Speaker 1: I think so. I think especially on some of the

198
00:11:25,840 --> 00:11:30,760
Speaker 1: Chinese reopening play, and I think that play is essentially

199
00:11:30,800 --> 00:11:33,880
Speaker 1: over now. I think that investors will start to focus

200
00:11:34,040 --> 00:11:38,680
Speaker 1: more on fundamentals and what rich sectors and industry will

201
00:11:38,679 --> 00:11:40,480
Speaker 1: will continue to rebound in China for the rest of

202
00:11:40,480 --> 00:11:44,360
Speaker 1: the year. Well, we mentioned that it was one month's

203
00:11:44,440 --> 00:11:47,240
Speaker 1: data really that caused a change in thinking. Once you

204
00:11:47,320 --> 00:11:50,000
Speaker 1: had that Job's report, and then followed up by the

205
00:11:50,880 --> 00:11:54,200
Speaker 1: CPI and the PPI data and now the PCE, you've

206
00:11:54,200 --> 00:11:59,000
Speaker 1: seen a real change in investor behavior. Is it important

207
00:11:59,000 --> 00:12:03,200
Speaker 1: to move cautiously because that may not follow through in

208
00:12:03,200 --> 00:12:05,959
Speaker 1: February and March or do you think that that's been

209
00:12:05,960 --> 00:12:10,800
Speaker 1: the story all along. Well, that's right. One month data

210
00:12:10,880 --> 00:12:13,360
Speaker 1: does not make a trend. But how many times have

211
00:12:13,559 --> 00:12:17,000
Speaker 1: we've heard or we've expected the FED to pivot because

212
00:12:17,160 --> 00:12:20,720
Speaker 1: of inflation coming down, you know, around the corner, and

213
00:12:20,880 --> 00:12:23,840
Speaker 1: that certainly hasn't happened, and so I think that investors

214
00:12:24,480 --> 00:12:27,880
Speaker 1: could be disappointed, especially those that expect that have been

215
00:12:27,920 --> 00:12:32,280
Speaker 1: expecting a pause or a cut later on this year.

216
00:12:32,320 --> 00:12:34,120
Speaker 1: I think it's very clear that we're not going to

217
00:12:34,160 --> 00:12:36,040
Speaker 1: get that cut at the end of the year. It

218
00:12:36,080 --> 00:12:38,160
Speaker 1: could be as you know, more like you know, the

219
00:12:38,200 --> 00:12:42,600
Speaker 1: middle of next year, and so it's just expectations I'm

220
00:12:42,679 --> 00:12:46,280
Speaker 1: not being met. So, you know, with that thesis as

221
00:12:46,320 --> 00:12:48,439
Speaker 1: to what you think may will be happening with the

222
00:12:48,520 --> 00:12:54,640
Speaker 1: FED reserve, how do you position yourself to gain from that? Well,

223
00:12:54,679 --> 00:12:58,559
Speaker 1: I think that it makes sense for fixed income investors

224
00:12:58,559 --> 00:13:01,520
Speaker 1: to be positioned on the shore duration short end of

225
00:13:01,559 --> 00:13:04,320
Speaker 1: the curve. The market is paying investors to wait a

226
00:13:04,360 --> 00:13:09,000
Speaker 1: short term, though I think taking on additional duration could

227
00:13:09,040 --> 00:13:13,559
Speaker 1: provide limited benefits, though it could act as a recessionary head.

228
00:13:15,160 --> 00:13:18,200
Speaker 1: We talked about all these other factors besides inflation and

229
00:13:18,240 --> 00:13:20,959
Speaker 1: the FED. It happened that it was the anniversary of

230
00:13:20,960 --> 00:13:23,600
Speaker 1: the Ukraine War, so that's very much in focus. The

231
00:13:23,640 --> 00:13:26,360
Speaker 1: reopening in China has been called into question a little,

232
00:13:26,400 --> 00:13:29,640
Speaker 1: and you have US China tensions, a sell down in tech.

233
00:13:30,840 --> 00:13:35,040
Speaker 1: I'm curious about the bow Fund story, and you're thinking

234
00:13:35,200 --> 00:13:40,120
Speaker 1: on that now that he's said to be cooperating according

235
00:13:40,200 --> 00:13:44,040
Speaker 1: to the company itself, does that challenge the adage of

236
00:13:44,160 --> 00:13:48,280
Speaker 1: kill the chicken to scare the monkey. Well, I am

237
00:13:48,320 --> 00:13:53,000
Speaker 1: a bit surprised that this has been telegraphed so broadly.

238
00:13:53,679 --> 00:13:56,040
Speaker 1: I was in the mindset that the government is pretty

239
00:13:56,120 --> 00:14:00,959
Speaker 1: much in the green when it comes to kind of

240
00:14:01,440 --> 00:14:05,240
Speaker 1: oversight issues, given that the focus has really been prioritized

241
00:14:05,320 --> 00:14:08,920
Speaker 1: on economic growth this year. So I think we'll really

242
00:14:08,920 --> 00:14:12,000
Speaker 1: have to see how this one plays out. But in general,

243
00:14:12,040 --> 00:14:14,400
Speaker 1: I think that the government has taken a much more

244
00:14:15,760 --> 00:14:19,600
Speaker 1: market trendly approach towards ensuring that we have growth and

245
00:14:19,720 --> 00:14:21,720
Speaker 1: that and that I think that we're pretty much out

246
00:14:21,720 --> 00:14:25,160
Speaker 1: of the regulatory woods for at least for this year. Yeah,

247
00:14:25,200 --> 00:14:27,240
Speaker 1: we're always a good against some hiccups like this, I

248
00:14:27,280 --> 00:14:31,640
Speaker 1: suppose ultimately, and that always then remains that there's going

249
00:14:31,720 --> 00:14:35,000
Speaker 1: to become some sort of a discount for Chinese equities

250
00:14:35,040 --> 00:14:38,880
Speaker 1: and If so, what do you think it is. Well,

251
00:14:38,920 --> 00:14:43,760
Speaker 1: we've seen a historical discount between Chinese equities and the

252
00:14:43,880 --> 00:14:49,080
Speaker 1: US equities and developed markets, and I think that I

253
00:14:49,120 --> 00:14:53,080
Speaker 1: think that as China's economy continues to mature and become

254
00:14:53,120 --> 00:14:54,760
Speaker 1: you know, it's the second largest econoty of the world,

255
00:14:55,560 --> 00:14:58,160
Speaker 1: and the capital markets also start to mature as well,

256
00:14:58,200 --> 00:15:01,120
Speaker 1: I think that that historical discount to start too narrow.

257
00:15:01,360 --> 00:15:06,640
Speaker 1: But certainly there there are there are significant differences in

258
00:15:06,640 --> 00:15:10,640
Speaker 1: the political economy between China uh and the developed markets,

259
00:15:10,680 --> 00:15:13,040
Speaker 1: and I think that that will continue to be an

260
00:15:13,040 --> 00:15:15,880
Speaker 1: issue that that investors will have to see through or

261
00:15:15,960 --> 00:15:20,120
Speaker 1: better understand. We had some key earnings last week in

262
00:15:20,160 --> 00:15:23,320
Speaker 1: this part of the world from Baidu and Ali Baba.

263
00:15:23,600 --> 00:15:28,440
Speaker 1: Did you learn anything in there that you didn't know before? Well,

264
00:15:28,480 --> 00:15:31,440
Speaker 1: I would say that what I cleaned is that the

265
00:15:31,720 --> 00:15:36,400
Speaker 1: consumption recovery, especially to to e commerce, continues to be

266
00:15:36,480 --> 00:15:39,800
Speaker 1: very strong. The data, the consumption data coming out of

267
00:15:40,040 --> 00:15:44,840
Speaker 1: Chinese New Year was very strong um and especially in

268
00:15:45,040 --> 00:15:48,560
Speaker 1: mobility and also on the purchases. But I would say

269
00:15:48,600 --> 00:15:50,840
Speaker 1: that the consumption recovery for the rest of the year

270
00:15:50,920 --> 00:15:53,280
Speaker 1: will will continue, but it will it could be a

271
00:15:53,280 --> 00:15:55,080
Speaker 1: bit lumpy um, and so we're not going to see

272
00:15:55,080 --> 00:15:57,840
Speaker 1: a very strong V shape recovery. We know that Chinese

273
00:15:57,880 --> 00:16:00,760
Speaker 1: household are sitting on a pile of xss CAT, but

274
00:16:00,880 --> 00:16:03,880
Speaker 1: we don't expect them to spend that as quickly. I say,

275
00:16:04,120 --> 00:16:09,760
Speaker 1: how American households did blackhum thousand and twenty one. This

276
00:16:10,000 --> 00:16:12,800
Speaker 1: is Bloomberg Daybreak Asia, your morning brief on the stories

277
00:16:12,880 --> 00:16:16,040
Speaker 1: making news from Hong Kong to Singapore and Wall Street.

278
00:16:16,120 --> 00:16:20,040
Speaker 1: Look for us on your podcast feed every day, on Apple, Spotify,

279
00:16:20,320 --> 00:16:22,840
Speaker 1: and anywhere else you get your podcasts. You can also

280
00:16:22,880 --> 00:16:25,480
Speaker 1: listen live each day on Bloomberg eleven three zero in

281
00:16:25,560 --> 00:16:29,200
Speaker 1: New York, Bloomberg ninety nine one in Washington, Bloomberg one

282
00:16:29,200 --> 00:16:32,480
Speaker 1: oh sixty one in Boston, and Bloomberg nine sixty in

283
00:16:32,560 --> 00:16:35,840
Speaker 1: San Francisco. Our flagship New York station is also available

284
00:16:35,920 --> 00:16:40,360
Speaker 1: on your Amazon Alexa devices. Just say Alexa play Bloomberg

285
00:16:40,360 --> 00:16:43,680
Speaker 1: eleven thirty plus. Listen coast to coast on the Bloomberg

286
00:16:43,720 --> 00:16:48,400
Speaker 1: Business app, Sirius XM Channel one nineteen, the iHeartRadio app,

287
00:16:48,480 --> 00:16:52,240
Speaker 1: and on Bloomberg dot Com. I'm Brian Curtis and I'm

288
00:16:52,280 --> 00:16:54,760
Speaker 1: Doug Prisoner. Join us again. Tomorrow for all the news

289
00:16:54,800 --> 00:16:58,000
Speaker 1: unique to start your day right here on Bloomberg Daybreak,

290
00:16:58,040 --> 00:17:00,880
Speaker 1: Asia Hey