WEBVTT - Going Behind the Headlines to Examine Immigration

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<v Speaker 1>You're listening to Bloomberg BusinessWeek with Karl Messer and Tim

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<v Speaker 1>Steneveek on Bloomberg Radio.

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<v Speaker 2>On Monday, Texas Governor Greg Abbott signed a new measure

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<v Speaker 2>that allows state law enforcement to arrest migrants who entered

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<v Speaker 2>the US without authorization. Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador

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<v Speaker 2>m Low has accused the governor of using such measures

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<v Speaker 2>for political gain ahead of the twenty twenty four US

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<v Speaker 2>presidential election, and he says that his country will challenge

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<v Speaker 2>the measure. No question that immigration ats front and center

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<v Speaker 2>as we enter the twenty twenty four presidential election. In fact,

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<v Speaker 2>swing state voters see US Mexico border security is a

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<v Speaker 2>greater priority than the foreign policy crises that have increasingly

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<v Speaker 2>dominated President Joe Biden's attention over the last few months.

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<v Speaker 2>We're talking Israel, Hamas, and then of course what's going

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<v Speaker 2>on in Ukraine. This, according to an October Bloomberg News

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<v Speaker 2>Morning Consul poll, what we've got with us a great

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<v Speaker 2>voice to help us understand migration and also to help

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<v Speaker 2>dispel what he argues are common myths and misconceptions around migration.

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<v Speaker 2>Heindehas is professor of sociology at the University of Amsterdam.

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<v Speaker 2>He's also the director of International Migration Institute and the

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<v Speaker 2>author of the new book How Migration Really Works, The

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<v Speaker 2>Facts about the most divisive issue in politics. Professor to

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<v Speaker 2>has good to have you with us this afternoon. How

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<v Speaker 2>are you.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm fine, Thank you well.

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<v Speaker 2>Thanks for staying up late in Amsterdam and joining us.

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<v Speaker 2>We really do appreciate it. Hey, if you go back

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<v Speaker 2>in history, for pretty much as long as we'venn had

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<v Speaker 2>historical record, migration has been politically divisive. I mean, this

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<v Speaker 2>is the type of thing that sparked wars in the

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<v Speaker 2>past for borders. Why has it been so politically divisive?

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<v Speaker 1>I think migration is this perfect issue to detract the

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<v Speaker 1>attention away, distract your attention away from other issues where

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<v Speaker 1>people aren'thappy about. And I think migration is the perfect

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<v Speaker 1>scapegoat as well. But it also provides an opportunity for

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<v Speaker 1>politicians to position themselves as strong leaders against the common enemy.

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<v Speaker 1>So it is very attractive for politicians to draw the

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<v Speaker 1>migration card. And we see that all across the West.

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<v Speaker 1>But like you said, it's not something new. I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>if you go as century back in the US, there

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<v Speaker 1>was a lot of hostility towards Southern European migrants, Catholic migrants,

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<v Speaker 1>Jewish migrants, German migrants, and you see it for all countries.

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<v Speaker 1>So this phenomenon as such is not new. I think

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<v Speaker 1>what's worrying is the divisive of an inflammatory language we're

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<v Speaker 1>hearing from politicians. Of course, migration comes with its problems,

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<v Speaker 1>but it's now being sort of magnified to this essential

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<v Speaker 1>threat to societies, and I think that is really problematic

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<v Speaker 1>because the debate is more and more disconnected from what's

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<v Speaker 1>happening on the ground.

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<v Speaker 3>Can you walk us through maybe some of the most

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<v Speaker 3>common misconceptions that you hear about migration and what your

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<v Speaker 3>responses would be to those.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah. Now, I think the most common sort of idea

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<v Speaker 1>that many people share across the political board, from left

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<v Speaker 1>to right, is this idea that the swelling miles of

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<v Speaker 1>people from poor countries are moving to rich countries and

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<v Speaker 1>that our borders are increasingly overwhelmed. And it's linked to

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<v Speaker 1>this idea that poverty, inequality, warfare pushes more and more

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<v Speaker 1>people to live their homelands. Now, of course there are

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<v Speaker 1>issues on the border, and certainly in the US case,

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<v Speaker 1>that's not something we can ignore, but if you zoom

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<v Speaker 1>a little bit out and you look at the overall

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<v Speaker 1>volume of migration in the world, we talk about three

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<v Speaker 1>percent of the will population, and that percentage remained remarkably

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<v Speaker 1>stable over the last century. Basically, there has been clear

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<v Speaker 1>shifts in terms of directions of migration, but we don't

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<v Speaker 1>really have evidence of migration as such as spinning out

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<v Speaker 1>of control, although you'd get that impression of course if

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<v Speaker 1>you look at particular border areas and the issues the

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<v Speaker 1>US is currently dealing with. But I think if you

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<v Speaker 1>zoom out, migration is essentially not driven by poverty and misery.

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<v Speaker 1>The main driver of migration also to the US has

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<v Speaker 1>always been the economy and particular labor demand, and what

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<v Speaker 1>you see right now both in terms of legal any

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<v Speaker 1>legal migration in the US cannot be disconnected to the

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<v Speaker 1>fact that use in employment as the fifty year low

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<v Speaker 1>right now, labor shortages are huge. We have an unprecedented

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<v Speaker 1>peak of vacancies topic topping I think ten million right now,

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<v Speaker 1>which is really historical records. And these things are connected.

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<v Speaker 1>So this is not so much about a sort of

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<v Speaker 1>poverty push what people think. It is really primarily about.

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<v Speaker 1>There's opportunities and that's always been the case. It's always

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<v Speaker 1>been the case with immigration.

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<v Speaker 2>It sounds like you and you're making the point, Professor,

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<v Speaker 2>that the US can absorb the immigration that we're seeing.

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<v Speaker 1>Well, I think the problem is that quite a lot

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<v Speaker 1>of migration is undocumented. It's about the legal migration, and

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<v Speaker 1>that reveals I think a huge issue all across the West.

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<v Speaker 1>There is simply not enough political support for creating more

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<v Speaker 1>legal pannels for lower skilled migrants. And we need we

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<v Speaker 1>sorted to with the COVID pandemic. That these people do

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<v Speaker 1>all sorts of essential jobs in the economy, but this

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<v Speaker 1>is not the kind of migrants for which we give

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<v Speaker 1>in our visas, which means that people find other ways

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<v Speaker 1>to enter countries, and I think that is one of

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<v Speaker 1>the biggest causes of the search and border crossings which

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<v Speaker 1>you see. Besides of quarter, there's also people fleeing conflict.

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<v Speaker 1>So to put it simply, the best way to really

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<v Speaker 1>really curb migration is to wreck your economy, and we

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<v Speaker 1>see indeed in times with high unemployment economic recessions, migration

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<v Speaker 1>goes down. When the economy does well, a lot of

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<v Speaker 1>people come. And it's partly what you see and most

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<v Speaker 1>of the migration also to the US is about legal migration,

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<v Speaker 1>legal temporary migrant admissions to the US reaching all time

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<v Speaker 1>high under the Trump presidency up to six million, and

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<v Speaker 1>after a sort of COVID slack, it's back to five

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<v Speaker 1>million of last year, And it reflects the actually very

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<v Speaker 1>good state of the US economy. So to put it differently,

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<v Speaker 1>if you want, if you don't like immigration, that is

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<v Speaker 1>the price you pay for being a wealthy, open market

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<v Speaker 1>economy as the US. But the same goes for the

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<v Speaker 1>UK and many other European countries.

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<v Speaker 3>So under the framework that you're working with that you

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<v Speaker 3>know the only way to solve micration yould Well, one

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<v Speaker 3>way would be to wreck your economy. Obviously we wouldn't

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<v Speaker 3>want to do that in the US. But underneath your framework,

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<v Speaker 3>did you come up with ideas or solutions about I mean,

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<v Speaker 3>we do have a lot of people trying to cross

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<v Speaker 3>the border illegally. How do you solve that? How do

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<v Speaker 3>you even begin to start finding solutions for that?

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<v Speaker 1>Well, you cannot do anything if you don't do anything

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<v Speaker 1>about the demound factor. And I think what really shows

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<v Speaker 1>that another thing sort of myth is that you know,

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<v Speaker 1>politicians get tougher and tougher in immigration. Yet it's true

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<v Speaker 1>on the level of rhetoric, but if you look at practices,

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<v Speaker 1>we haven't found in a huge research project any difference

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<v Speaker 1>between left leaning and right leaning politicians in terms of

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<v Speaker 1>the policies they implement. For instance, a lot of particularly

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<v Speaker 1>Republican side you hear a lot of tough talk on immigration.

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<v Speaker 1>At the same time, labor enforcement is symbolically low in

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<v Speaker 1>the whole of the US. Just one statistic, the number

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<v Speaker 1>of employers that get prosecuted for employing undocumented migrants is

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<v Speaker 1>somewhere between ten and fifteen a year without any zero's added.

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<v Speaker 1>It is roughly the same chance of being hit by lightning.

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<v Speaker 1>And it shows to whatever you call it, that's call

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<v Speaker 1>it the hypocrisy of politicians that you know, I have

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<v Speaker 1>a lot of tough talk to say about immigration, but

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<v Speaker 1>a lot of these.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, and a lot of these A lot of the

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<v Speaker 2>big examples of this are in actually states where that

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<v Speaker 2>are most aggressively rhetorically anti this migration. Who are migrants

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<v Speaker 2>Because in order to actually leave where you were born,

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<v Speaker 2>leave where you're from, leave your family behind, that takes

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<v Speaker 2>a person who's willing to make a lot of sacrifice

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<v Speaker 2>and do these things and work, in my opinion, work

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<v Speaker 2>very hard. What have you found in your research.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, yeah, that's exactly what we find. That was true

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<v Speaker 1>in the past of Europeans going to the United States.

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<v Speaker 1>It's still true for migrants. Migrants are what we call

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<v Speaker 1>a positive selection of people in home countries, which means

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<v Speaker 1>these are the exceptional people, the entrepreneurial people. Three percent

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<v Speaker 1>of the well population migrates, that means ninety seven percent

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<v Speaker 1>stays home. So migrants are almost by definition those who

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<v Speaker 1>want to take risks or entrepreneurial who want to improve

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<v Speaker 1>their lives, and that is still the case by and large.

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<v Speaker 1>So migrants are a positive sub selection. And that is

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<v Speaker 1>actually why research is found that immigration decreases crime, very

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<v Speaker 1>contrary to what politicians say, because migrants are often very

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<v Speaker 1>community oriented, business oriented. They don't come to countries to

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<v Speaker 1>become criminals. And that's why we find in research the

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<v Speaker 1>exact opposite of what politicians tend to claim.

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<v Speaker 2>But I want to get back to a conversation with

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<v Speaker 2>Heinde Hash, professor of sociology at the University of Amsterdam.

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<v Speaker 2>He's also the director of the International Migration Institute and

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<v Speaker 2>the author of the new book, How Migration Really Works.

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<v Speaker 2>The fact is about the most divisive issue in politics.

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<v Speaker 2>Professor Dehas joins us from Amsterdam this afternoon. So, Professor,

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<v Speaker 2>one thing that I wanted to discuss was public opinion

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<v Speaker 2>and what you've found in different parts of the world

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<v Speaker 2>where you've studied this, and how democrats, how Republicans in

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<v Speaker 2>the US think about immigration as a political issue, because

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<v Speaker 2>your findings, I think would surprise a lot of people.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, what is interesting, it is indeed true, is most

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<v Speaker 1>people would expect that more Republicans think negatively about migration

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<v Speaker 1>compared to Democrats leaning voters who tend to be slightly

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<v Speaker 1>more positive. But if you look at trends through time,

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<v Speaker 1>it really becomes interesting. In the US, clearly the share

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<v Speaker 1>of people who do positively up migration on both sides

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<v Speaker 1>of the political divide between Democrats and Republicans growing, So

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<v Speaker 1>there is no sort of public backlash against immigration, which

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<v Speaker 1>what you would think if you listen to politicians. And

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<v Speaker 1>we find the same in Europe, and we can explain

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<v Speaker 1>that because it's people get used to the presence of migrants'

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<v Speaker 1>fheares often diminish and people start to think more positively

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<v Speaker 1>about immigration. So there is no big public backlash against immigration.

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<v Speaker 1>What you see is that the rhetorics have grown increasingly

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<v Speaker 1>tough by politicians. It is more on the level of

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<v Speaker 1>political rhetorus that you see this huge polarization between a

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<v Speaker 1>sort of pro and anti migration.

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<v Speaker 2>But is that rhetoric working. Does it lead to people

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<v Speaker 2>changing their minds, does it lead to public opinion shifting,

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<v Speaker 2>and does it lead to candidates being elected?

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<v Speaker 1>Well, in the broad sense not. But there is of

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<v Speaker 1>course a share of voters that is worried about immigration,

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<v Speaker 1>that sees immigration is a big threat, and that vote

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<v Speaker 1>is being mobilized, and that is still a significant share.

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<v Speaker 1>But the interesting thing is that the share of people

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<v Speaker 1>thinking more positive will doop migration is actually increasing. It may,

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<v Speaker 1>of course be that people on the fringes may be

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<v Speaker 1>emboldened by divisive, inflammatory language, and that is of course

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<v Speaker 1>a problem. It could spark violence and discrimination and racism.

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<v Speaker 1>But overall, there is no clear trend towards growing senophobia,

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<v Speaker 1>growing racism. The trend is rather in the other direction.

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<v Speaker 1>That is actually very surprising, and what it shows that

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<v Speaker 1>there is I think there is a fair share of

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<v Speaker 1>voters who wants to hear a different story because this

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<v Speaker 1>pro anti division is simply not working anymore. Migration is

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<v Speaker 1>of all times, migration comes with the share of problems.

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<v Speaker 1>It comes also with a lot of benefits. But it's

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<v Speaker 1>not something that can just think away. And I always

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<v Speaker 1>say to ask you know me, for instance, are you

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<v Speaker 1>in favor against migration, to be like asking an economist,

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<v Speaker 1>are you in favor against the economy. That's not a

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<v Speaker 1>serious way of talking about immigration. And that is partly

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<v Speaker 1>why the debate is so incredibly stuck, because both camps

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<v Speaker 1>sort of dig in, cave in, and cherry pick evidence,

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<v Speaker 1>and there are not many politicians who dare to tell

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<v Speaker 1>the true story about immigration, which bio necessity is a

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<v Speaker 1>much more nuanced one than the one we usually hear

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<v Speaker 1>when we listen to politicians.

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<v Speaker 3>So what did your findings find with the nuance of

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<v Speaker 3>who actually benefits from migration in the countries that are

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<v Speaker 3>bringing people in, that are seeing more migrants, who benefits there?

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<v Speaker 1>Well, migrants make the whole economy bigger basically, so the

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<v Speaker 1>whole economic pie is simply growing. And if you look

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<v Speaker 1>at average effects on wages, for instance, we find very

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<v Speaker 1>very small effects. And there you can discuss about methods

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<v Speaker 1>and data, but the fact the effect is so small

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<v Speaker 1>that it is pretty insignificant. When you look at higher

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<v Speaker 1>and lower incomes, you see a clear difference. It is

0:12:54.480 --> 0:12:58.800
<v Speaker 1>particularly already affluent to benefit most economically from immigration, because

0:12:58.840 --> 0:13:02.400
<v Speaker 1>these are, of course the people using services migants provide,

0:13:03.040 --> 0:13:06.559
<v Speaker 1>often owning businesses that help them to boost their profits.

0:13:07.080 --> 0:13:11.199
<v Speaker 1>But the lowest income earners, amongst whom also many former migrants,

0:13:11.200 --> 0:13:14.640
<v Speaker 1>of people living on minimum wage, for instance, don't benefit

0:13:14.720 --> 0:13:17.080
<v Speaker 1>much from immigration, and in some cases they may lose

0:13:17.080 --> 0:13:20.200
<v Speaker 1>out a little bit. It doesn't mean that immigration is

0:13:20.240 --> 0:13:23.600
<v Speaker 1>the cause for the long wage technoation we have seen

0:13:23.640 --> 0:13:27.240
<v Speaker 1>for lower incomes in the United States. But it is

0:13:27.320 --> 0:13:29.920
<v Speaker 1>in a way logical that people who earn really low

0:13:29.960 --> 0:13:32.520
<v Speaker 1>wages have the feeling what's in it for me? Because

0:13:32.520 --> 0:13:34.679
<v Speaker 1>these are also the people who see, of course the

0:13:34.800 --> 0:13:38.480
<v Speaker 1>day to day consequences of immigration in their daily lives.

0:13:38.559 --> 0:13:41.880
<v Speaker 1>So in that sense, the idea that they don't benefit

0:13:41.920 --> 0:13:44.920
<v Speaker 1>as much from immigration as already effluent people is correct.

0:13:45.040 --> 0:13:47.560
<v Speaker 1>But it doesn't mean that migans take away jobs or

0:13:47.600 --> 0:13:51.400
<v Speaker 1>are responsible for the long term wage technolu that we

0:13:51.480 --> 0:13:54.760
<v Speaker 1>have seen in many Western countries amongst lower income owners.

0:13:55.040 --> 0:14:01.680
<v Speaker 2>Professor de Haas. Let's say that by some imaginary force,

0:14:02.800 --> 0:14:06.199
<v Speaker 2>you became in charge of immigration policy here in the US.

0:14:06.640 --> 0:14:11.280
<v Speaker 2>No question, we face a crisis at the US Mexico border.

0:14:12.160 --> 0:14:13.120
<v Speaker 2>How would you solve it?

0:14:15.280 --> 0:14:18.439
<v Speaker 1>I think I would organize a national debate about immigration,

0:14:18.520 --> 0:14:21.120
<v Speaker 1>and that is a serious debate, and that should the

0:14:21.480 --> 0:14:24.320
<v Speaker 1>definition be a debate about the kind of society and

0:14:24.480 --> 0:14:27.000
<v Speaker 1>economy you want to live in, particularly when we look

0:14:27.000 --> 0:14:29.680
<v Speaker 1>at lower skilled jobs. Because there's broad support also in

0:14:29.720 --> 0:14:32.800
<v Speaker 1>the US to allow people to come in who do

0:14:32.920 --> 0:14:36.440
<v Speaker 1>higher skilled jobs. But it is a fact of life

0:14:36.680 --> 0:14:39.680
<v Speaker 1>and certainly in the future that we need also lower

0:14:39.680 --> 0:14:42.760
<v Speaker 1>skilled immigrants. So you can only solve this in two ways.

0:14:43.640 --> 0:14:46.760
<v Speaker 1>Either you create more legal channels for lower skilled workers

0:14:47.120 --> 0:14:50.480
<v Speaker 1>that will avoid a lot of misery at the border.

0:14:50.760 --> 0:14:53.280
<v Speaker 1>And these policies that we've been trying to implement a

0:14:53.280 --> 0:14:56.160
<v Speaker 1>border enforcement that go back more than thirty years, and

0:14:56.240 --> 0:14:58.440
<v Speaker 1>we've been trying to do the same again and again

0:14:58.480 --> 0:15:01.360
<v Speaker 1>and again, and it doesn't work because people are still

0:15:01.400 --> 0:15:07.640
<v Speaker 1>attracted by jobs, or you make those jobs not available anymore.

0:15:07.680 --> 0:15:10.960
<v Speaker 1>I do enforce labor law, you know you're really going

0:15:11.000 --> 0:15:14.640
<v Speaker 1>to prosecute employers massively. I don't think that is very likely.

0:15:14.880 --> 0:15:17.600
<v Speaker 1>I'd rather have a different debate about the kinds of

0:15:17.680 --> 0:15:21.040
<v Speaker 1>jobs we create that are jobs that are not attractive

0:15:21.080 --> 0:15:24.640
<v Speaker 1>for native workers, that attract migrant workers. We really need

0:15:24.680 --> 0:15:27.280
<v Speaker 1>to think about how we organize our economy. For instance,

0:15:27.280 --> 0:15:30.320
<v Speaker 1>if you think about care, who's going to take care

0:15:30.320 --> 0:15:33.800
<v Speaker 1>in the future of our children, our elderly. We need

0:15:33.800 --> 0:15:36.760
<v Speaker 1>a serious debate about immigration where we no longer deny

0:15:36.840 --> 0:15:40.200
<v Speaker 1>these economic realities, and on that base we can make decisions.

0:15:40.680 --> 0:15:45.000
<v Speaker 1>But we really cannot divorce the whole debate on immigration

0:15:45.160 --> 0:15:48.000
<v Speaker 1>from a broader debate how to organize our economy. Well,

0:15:48.040 --> 0:15:50.680
<v Speaker 1>that's a long story, it's a complex story, and that

0:15:50.800 --> 0:15:53.800
<v Speaker 1>is the whole point. I think we've seen too much

0:15:53.840 --> 0:15:56.800
<v Speaker 1>politics of denial over the last thirty years, and that

0:15:57.040 --> 0:15:59.880
<v Speaker 1>also explains the mess we're in, not just in the US,

0:16:00.040 --> 0:16:03.960
<v Speaker 1>but also in European Union, where this real demand follow

0:16:04.080 --> 0:16:06.960
<v Speaker 1>is killed labor, which is going to stay because of aging,

0:16:07.080 --> 0:16:10.840
<v Speaker 1>because of increasing education of the native workforce. All indicators

0:16:10.880 --> 0:16:13.600
<v Speaker 1>show that we really need a debate about this, but

0:16:13.680 --> 0:16:16.120
<v Speaker 1>also a debate about work and jobs and for instance,

0:16:16.160 --> 0:16:20.240
<v Speaker 1>minimum wage. These are all connected with immigration, and I

0:16:20.280 --> 0:16:23.120
<v Speaker 1>cannot explain it fully right, Don't I think this is

0:16:23.120 --> 0:16:24.040
<v Speaker 1>a serious debate.

0:16:25.200 --> 0:16:25.480
<v Speaker 3>Yeah.

0:16:25.560 --> 0:16:27.760
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, it's been really helpful and you got to come

0:16:27.800 --> 0:16:30.280
<v Speaker 2>back and join us once again. Heinde Haas is Professor

0:16:30.320 --> 0:16:32.400
<v Speaker 2>of sociology at the Diversity of Amsterdam. Check out his

0:16:32.640 --> 0:16:35.000
<v Speaker 2>new book, How Migration Really Works The Facts about the

0:16:35.000 --> 0:16:36.920
<v Speaker 2>most divisive issue in politics.