Speaker 1: Hey, guys, ready or not, twenty twenty four is here
Speaker 1: and we here at breaking points, are already thinking of
Speaker 1: ways we can up our game for this critical election.
Speaker 2: We rely on our premium subs to expand coverage, upgrade
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Speaker 3: Coverage that is possible.
Speaker 2: If you like what we're all about, it just means
Speaker 2: the absolute world to have your support.
Speaker 3: But enough with that, let's get to the show.
Speaker 2: Good morning, everybody, Happy Monday. We have an amazing show
Speaker 2: for everybody today. What do we have, Crystal?
Speaker 4: Indeed, we do nice to have you back, sir.
Speaker 3: You have slightly recuperated and doing my best over here.
Speaker 4: Now this is a little rough, but we're glad to
Speaker 4: have you get there.
Speaker 3: We'll get through it.
Speaker 4: Lots to get to you this morning.
Speaker 1: We have some new just devastating numbers for Joe Biden
Speaker 1: that we can go through, some interesting comments from voters
Speaker 1: as well as we head into the general election. We
Speaker 1: also have some big legal developments in a giant admission
Speaker 1: from Fanny Willis down there in Georgia's will break all
Speaker 1: of that down for you and what it means. And
Speaker 1: also Trump apparently sort of assuming that he is going
Speaker 1: to be convicted in one of these and is planning
Speaker 1: for how he's going to get through that and win
Speaker 1: the White House back anyway, So we'll tell you about.
Speaker 4: All of that.
Speaker 1: We also have the US swearing that the Middle Eastern
Speaker 1: War has not widened, even as we bomb three different
Speaker 1: countries over the weekend. So incredible that they are still
Speaker 1: trying to even make that claim, and quite humiliating and
Speaker 1: embarrassing for them. Speaking of humiliating and embarrassing the media,
Speaker 1: many things to report on there, including a new report
Speaker 1: that CNN's staffers themselves employees of CNN, are accusing that
Speaker 1: network of journalistic malpractice. I'm taking a look at a
Speaker 1: new IDF admission that they were in fact behind this
Speaker 1: telegram channel that was publishing on a daily basis basically
Speaker 1: like violent snuff style content.
Speaker 4: Unbelievable.
Speaker 1: And we have a guest on to break down a
Speaker 1: new report about who exactly are the millionaire and billionaire
Speaker 1: moguls behind the gigantic funding push by a pack in
Speaker 1: the Israel lobby.
Speaker 4: So a lot to get into this morning, that's right.
Speaker 2: I'm really excited for that, in particular to talk to them,
Speaker 2: and we've got good news for everybody. The RFK Junior
Speaker 2: focus group in Michigan is actually today our producer and
Speaker 2: our team is on the ground there in the States.
Speaker 2: We have a discount going on for the election season
Speaker 2: where you can help us out breakingpoints dot Com to
Speaker 2: support work like that that we continue and we'll continue
Speaker 2: to expand all throughout so we can give you the
Speaker 2: very best coverage. Really excited actually to hear what they
Speaker 2: have to say about the libertarian push. There's been some
Speaker 2: talk of that lately and ballot initiatives, but more importantly.
Speaker 3: Who are you? You know, what do you want?
Speaker 2: Why are you supporting RFK Junior, and what are some
Speaker 2: of the things that are animating his support? You know
Speaker 2: that very much could turn the tide, which we will
Speaker 2: talk about very shortly.
Speaker 4: Yeah, the primaries not that interesting. Unfortunately.
Speaker 1: I wish there was like some real democracy and choice
Speaker 1: going on. There wasn't really there. I would say RK
Speaker 1: Junior is the big wild card for the fall, and
Speaker 1: so we're watching this with great interest because I genuinely
Speaker 1: am curious to know what these individuals say. I feel
Speaker 1: like of a great sense of like who your typical
Speaker 1: Republican is, what the different archetypes are, who your typical
Speaker 1: democrat is, what the different archetypes are. I want to
Speaker 1: know who the RFK junior supporter is, what is bringing
Speaker 1: them to the table in terms of a possible third
Speaker 1: party effort, and what they're looking towards for the fall.
Speaker 4: So that's going to be really interested.
Speaker 3: Really exciting to see the results.
Speaker 2: As always, the prem subscribers actually get early access to
Speaker 2: the full focus group and all that as a thank you,
Speaker 2: and we will continue to provide all of that. So
Speaker 2: again Breakingpoints dot Com if you can take advantage. But
Speaker 2: we've got some stunning new polling out speaking of the
Speaker 2: general election that we can go ahead and start with
Speaker 2: and put this up there.
Speaker 3: On the screen.
Speaker 2: I mean, this is one of those where one of
Speaker 2: the worst signs for Joe Biden yet. In the latest
Speaker 2: NBC News poll, Donald Trump is leading Joe Biden at
Speaker 2: forty seven to forty two percent, and the top line
Speaker 2: number there for Trump has actually gone up since November.
Speaker 2: Joe Biden's number has gone down by two. Let's go
Speaker 2: to the next part, Pleer, please, because this is equally important,
Speaker 2: where you can see the approval rating in an NBC
Speaker 2: News poll at the start of reelection for everyone for
Speaker 2: the last twenty years.
Speaker 3: George W.
Speaker 2: Bush started off in two thousand and four at fifty
Speaker 2: four percent. He was riding off the high of his
Speaker 2: host nine to eleven approval. Barack Obama in twenty twelve
Speaker 2: had a forty nine percent approval rating. Donald Trump had
Speaker 2: a forty six percent approval rating. Joe Biden coming in
Speaker 2: at thirty seven percent. He's putting up Jimmy Carter level
Speaker 2: numbers in his year out ahead of the overall election
Speaker 2: in twenty twenty four. And Harry Enton, who works over
Speaker 2: at CNN and he's actually a pretty good polling analyst,
Speaker 2: flags something which I think is probably the most important
Speaker 2: data point of this. This is the first time that
Speaker 2: a Republican for president has held a consistent lead in
Speaker 2: national polling since two thousand and four, which is absolutely stunning.
Speaker 3: Crystal.
Speaker 2: I mean, there's a couple of things that we should
Speaker 2: go through here, and we're going to cover some of
Speaker 2: the pluses and the minuses. I guess today will be
Speaker 2: the minus side for Joe Biden approval rating. Dismal approval rating,
Speaker 2: though is not necessarily equal to the overall votes. As
Speaker 2: we saw, Trump could have a forty six, you could
Speaker 2: still lose the overall electoral college. One of the problems, though,
Speaker 2: is that for Democrats, the ability to win the popular
Speaker 2: vote has been a foregone conclusion since too that thousand
Speaker 2: and four. Trump is now currently in a position polling wise,
Speaker 2: we don't know yet know whether that's accurate, where he
Speaker 2: does appear as if he may be able to edge
Speaker 2: out in the popular vote, given that Republicans actually have
Speaker 2: a minus two popular vote advantage in the overall electoral college.
Speaker 2: That's the worst possible position I think you could say
Speaker 2: fairly for Joe Biden, especially when we think about it
Speaker 2: on a state by state level. The only counter case
Speaker 2: I could give to you this is that, look, every
Speaker 2: election is unique, and I know that sounds trite, but
Speaker 2: George W.
Speaker 3: Bush HW Bush, I'm sorry.
Speaker 2: In nineteen ninety one had a ninety some approval rating
Speaker 2: after the Gulf War, and he still went on to
Speaker 2: lose the nineteen ninety two campaign. So it's not always
Speaker 2: one to one, but historically that's more of an aberration
Speaker 2: than it is the norm. The norm is is that
Speaker 2: when people disapprove of your handling on the economy, your
Speaker 2: overall job performance and you're losing in almost every single
Speaker 2: national poll, then you're not doing so well at the
Speaker 2: same time special elections. Every time people go to the ballot,
Speaker 2: they don't seem to be a going Republican. So I
Speaker 2: don't know, I just want to present the fair picture.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think the other counter you would say is
Speaker 1: what's unusual about this election is you basically have two
Speaker 1: incumbents going up against each other, and Donald Trump also
Speaker 1: has a very low approval rating, So what do you
Speaker 1: make of that? I mean, I do think it is
Speaker 1: this bizarre situation where most of the country would say,
Speaker 1: there's nothing I would like less than this rematch to occur,
Speaker 1: and yet we're staring down the exact rematch that is
Speaker 1: like the nightmare.
Speaker 4: Scenario for the majority of Americans.
Speaker 1: I think you have a situation where if it was
Speaker 1: almost any other just sort of normal, run of the
Speaker 1: mill Democrat, they would beat Trump. I think if you
Speaker 1: had any normal likes run of the mill Republican, they
Speaker 1: would beat Joe Biden. And so it really is a
Speaker 1: test of like who does the country hate more, who
Speaker 1: are they more dissatisfied with, who are they more uncomfortable
Speaker 1: with leading the country going forward? Chaos under Trump, or
Speaker 1: you know, someone who is incredibly aged and showing that
Speaker 1: age and declining on a daily basis to the point
Speaker 1: that he won't even sit for you know, basic interviews
Speaker 1: and is effectively hidden by his team from the American people.
Speaker 1: And this is very, very very apparent to people. They've
Speaker 1: been telling polsters routinely every single time they're asked, yes,
Speaker 1: I think Joe Biden is too old, and not just
Speaker 1: Republicans and not just independence Democrats felt that way and
Speaker 1: feel that way as well. And yet here we are,
Speaker 1: you know, with an incumbent president deciding to run for
Speaker 1: reelection in spite of the fact that the American people
Speaker 1: overwhelmingly feel like he is not really up to another
Speaker 1: four years. So that's kind of the bottom line of
Speaker 1: this choice here. And you know, I feel like there's
Speaker 1: a just a level of denial and insanity on the
Speaker 1: on the Democratic side. We might cover this clip tomorrow
Speaker 1: in the show. Dean Phillips finally got asked to go
Speaker 1: on MSNBG after you know, he's he.
Speaker 4: Announced four months ago.
Speaker 1: They never once had him on until after Joe Biden
Speaker 1: has basically like totally locked up the Democratic nomination, just
Speaker 1: completely romped in South Carolina. Then they decide to have
Speaker 1: Dean phillips on and they're like, why aren't you doing better?
Speaker 1: You know, if Democrats want another choice, why aren't you?
Speaker 1: Why aren't you doing better in the polls. He's like,
Speaker 1: you literally didn't even tell people at isais I have
Speaker 1: five percent name approval because they did so much to
Speaker 1: shut down any concept among the Democratic base that there
Speaker 1: was any option available other than Joe Biden. And at
Speaker 1: the same time they're saying that it is mission critical
Speaker 1: and absolutely existential that Donald Trump be defeated. Yet they're
Speaker 1: putting up this guy who is like the weakest, lamest,
Speaker 1: worst candidate you could possibly have in there to try
Speaker 1: to be Donald Trump. So it is a real level
Speaker 1: of insanity that has taken hold in the Democratic Party
Speaker 1: where they have just anointed this man who is so
Speaker 1: incredibly weak, and where people feel so nervous about the
Speaker 1: idea of whether he can even make it through another
Speaker 1: four years.
Speaker 2: Absolutely, and just to underscore this, one of the key
Speaker 2: themes of some of the things we'll talk about right
Speaker 2: now are somehow Biden his lack of strength doesn't just
Speaker 2: come from independent voters or from Republican overperformance or enthusiasm.
Speaker 2: He's losing key parts of his own coalition. MSNBC shockingly
Speaker 2: aired some comments from black voters that they at least
Speaker 2: probably taken by surprise, where they aired some of the
Speaker 2: criticism of Biden and not only that, about why trumps support,
Speaker 2: at least marginally amongst black men is beginning to increase.
Speaker 3: Here's what they had to say.
Speaker 5: Some appeal there for some black men with Trump.
Speaker 3: What is it money running?
Speaker 1: Yeah?
Speaker 6: I mean, you know, Donald Trump has a reputation of
Speaker 6: being the money man.
Speaker 5: So I just think that Donald Trump, in spite of
Speaker 5: all the craziness he may have in his head, reading
Speaker 5: some of the things that he talks about with business,
Speaker 5: I can kind of agree with business wise because I'm
Speaker 5: trying to grow my business.
Speaker 6: A lot of people admire.
Speaker 3: The persona.
Speaker 6: And they want to be him, you know, they want
Speaker 6: to enjoy the perks that he has. He seems to
Speaker 6: always be able to circumvent the rules.
Speaker 3: In that to it.
Speaker 5: There are some people in your orbit who are either
Speaker 5: voting for down Trump or considering it.
Speaker 3: For sure.
Speaker 7: A lot of my friends are obviously mye so we're
Speaker 7: a little bit younger. We've only voted once, you know,
Speaker 7: for actually for a president, and Trump is kind of
Speaker 7: all we know, and they're kind of Trump and Biden.
Speaker 7: They're like, well, we were broke with Biden. We weren't
Speaker 7: with Trump. And that's kind of the only thing that
Speaker 7: I'm hearing over and over again, over and over again
Speaker 7: is that, well, Trump, we had money. Well, okay, I
Speaker 7: hear you, guys, but personally, I morally, I.
Speaker 3: Couldn't see myself.
Speaker 2: Hey, very honest, I think in terms of portray with Trump,
Speaker 2: we had money. With Biden, we're broke. I mean, listen,
Speaker 2: people are pocket vote voters, are all people like that?
Speaker 3: No, not necessarily.
Speaker 2: As we saw in the twenty twenty two midterms, people
Speaker 2: did not vote with the economy is number one on
Speaker 2: their mind. They voted with abortion and would stop the
Speaker 2: steal very much though in order to have democratic overperformance.
Speaker 2: So again, I can sid here that I can make
Speaker 2: the case every single which way, but I do think
Speaker 2: that there is a major peril there for Biden, both
Speaker 2: within his coalition. Second to that is a lot of
Speaker 2: what's happening right now with Israel with younger voters. Let's
Speaker 2: put this up there on the screen. Politico's Jonathan Martin,
Speaker 2: who's a very astute political columnist, wrote this yes yesterday
Speaker 2: quote forget no labels. Biden's third party peril is on
Speaker 2: the left, young Democrats, how are finding us? Support for
Speaker 2: the Netanyahu war effort is untenable, potentially costing the present
Speaker 2: millions of liberal votes.
Speaker 3: And the major headline actually out of that is that quote.
Speaker 2: The latter is to include a multi pronged offensive that
Speaker 2: will currently launch soon against Kennedy, Jill Stein, and Cornell West.
Speaker 2: Some of it will come from the campaign, some from
Speaker 2: outside entities. We will set this up directly. It is
Speaker 2: us versus them. Us is voting for us, them voting
Speaker 2: for a third party or Trump, as one Biden official
Speaker 2: has put it to me. So in other words, I
Speaker 2: believe that is called vote blue, no matter who vo voter,
Speaker 2: definitely worked against Jill Stein voters and others. And and look,
Speaker 2: I mean at a certain point, I think people who
Speaker 2: are young in particular, and that's one thing that that
Speaker 2: young black gentleman in the clip did resonate with me,
Speaker 2: is he's like, listen, you know me a young guy.
Speaker 3: Trump is kind of oh, we know, and you know,
Speaker 3: we've been covering politics.
Speaker 2: And I think about it for so long, even though
Speaker 2: I'm only thirty thirty one, yeah, almost thirty two. Is
Speaker 2: that it's still been It's been seven years. That's a
Speaker 2: long time, you know, and before that it was Obama.
Speaker 2: It doesn't feel like Trump in many way has been
Speaker 2: around since twenty eleven with the Birther conspiracy and has
Speaker 2: been kind of the center of a lot of our
Speaker 2: politics for so long that people no longer want to
Speaker 2: believe some of the myths and other things that are
Speaker 2: out there now.
Speaker 3: It might be true that the suburban.
Speaker 2: You know, moms and white men, a college educated and
Speaker 2: others may definitely be swayed by the Trump is an
Speaker 2: existential threat and others. But I think key part of
Speaker 2: the Democratic coalition don't want to be shamed anymore. Younger
Speaker 2: people who voted for Bernie Sanders, younger people and others
Speaker 2: who I've met, you know, who voted for Jill Stein.
Speaker 2: I'm not sure they're ready to jump on this. They're like,
Speaker 2: I've just heard I've seen this movie so many many times.
Speaker 2: Why should I believe you? Yeah, I think that's a
Speaker 2: potent you know, that's a potent thing.
Speaker 1: You know, I thought the same thing listening to that
Speaker 1: young man speak, which is like this is normal for him.
Speaker 4: Yeah, this is just politics.
Speaker 1: Like the Trump era is all that he knows, all
Speaker 1: that he has seen of politics. So the idea that
Speaker 1: you're going to terrify him, like the world's going to
Speaker 1: end if Donald Trump gets back in the White House,
Speaker 1: like it just doesn't have the same resonance because he's
Speaker 1: seen it and.
Speaker 4: He was like yeah, and you know, it was chaotic.
Speaker 1: I personally says, I personally morally could never support him.
Speaker 4: But he doesn't.
Speaker 1: Feel like the world is going to absolutely fall apart
Speaker 1: because again, that level of chaos and like political insanity
Speaker 1: is just politics to him. That's just normal politics to him.
Speaker 1: You know, in terms of the crumbling of the coalition
Speaker 1: that put Joe Biden in office last time around, you know,
Speaker 1: it is a massive, massive problem for them, and I
Speaker 1: think jmart cisis in his peace. This poll just came
Speaker 1: out that showed fifty percent a majority of Democratic voters
Speaker 1: believe that Israel is perpetrating a genocide and Joe Biden
Speaker 1: obviously has given them unconditional support, done everything that they
Speaker 1: have wanted him to do.
Speaker 4: He has done so.
Speaker 1: Yeah, for voters who have any sense of morality. Aiding
Speaker 1: and a betting a genocide is going to be a
Speaker 1: very difficult pill to swallow. And it's different than oh,
Speaker 1: you may not love his position on this or that issue,
Speaker 1: or you may not be inspired by him, but suck
Speaker 1: it up because Donald Trump is on the other side.
Speaker 1: For a lot of people, that is just a bridge
Speaker 1: way too far. And there's a lot of indicators that
Speaker 1: the Biden team has finally woken up to the fact
Speaker 1: that people are not just going to get over this,
Speaker 1: They're not just going to move on. There was another
Speaker 1: piece that quoted Biden campaign officials who said they are
Speaker 1: now looking for other paths to win in Michigan that
Speaker 1: do not involve Arab American support because they basically see
Speaker 1: like this has gone on too long and there's basically
Speaker 1: nothing we can do with this point to win these
Speaker 1: folks back. But it's not just Arab Americans, it's not
Speaker 1: even just young voters. There's a big piece of The
Speaker 1: New York Times about how many black faith leaders are
Speaker 1: disgusted with the Biden foreign policy visa the Israel. Actually,
Speaker 1: MSNBC had another analyst on who said, listen, when I
Speaker 1: talk to black voters, they say what are we doing
Speaker 1: sending all this money overseas and entangling ourselves in all
Speaker 1: these wars when we've got problems right here at home.
Speaker 1: So there is also mass dissatisfaction across all kinds of
Speaker 1: key demographics in the base with regard to, you know,
Speaker 1: his unconditional support for Israel. And I do feel like,
Speaker 1: even if there's the ceasefire negotiations going on right now,
Speaker 1: even if the war ends now, that is not something
Speaker 1: that people are just going to get over and completely
Speaker 1: put in the rear view mirror. And I think they
Speaker 1: have actually sort of realized that, but don't.
Speaker 4: Know, you know, but obviously like.
Speaker 1: Actually putting the screws Israel or trying to change course
Speaker 1: isn't on the table. Instead, the plan is, we're just
Speaker 1: gonna demonize anyone who would consider supporting Jill s Done,
Speaker 1: consider supporting Cornell West, consider supporting RFK Junior. We're just
Speaker 1: going to say, but Trump, but Trump, but Trump, and
Speaker 1: hope and pray that that old playbook works one more time.
Speaker 2: It's a really foolish strategy because you know, if you
Speaker 2: look at the vote totals, I have Michigan here in
Speaker 2: front of me from twenty twenty you know, Biden won
Speaker 2: two point eight million votes. Trump won two point sixty
Speaker 2: five Only you know, Biden only won by a margin
Speaker 2: of one hundred and fifty four thousand votes. That's not
Speaker 2: a lot. I mean, Trump got forty seven point eight percent.
Speaker 2: So we're only talking about a couple of margins in
Speaker 2: a different direction, and Trump wins the state. Don't forget
Speaker 2: he won by ten thousand votes in twenty sixteen in
Speaker 2: the state of Michigan, which stunned a lot of people
Speaker 2: for the because of the election polling previously, But people
Speaker 2: like was it Debbie Dingel and other voters I believe
Speaker 2: Michael Moore as well had been like, I think Trump
Speaker 2: is going to win in Michigan.
Speaker 3: Same thing.
Speaker 2: I mean, let's say he has an enthusiastic coalition of
Speaker 2: people were willing to come out, and you've got just
Speaker 2: enough people who either don't come out to vote, or
Speaker 2: they vote for Cornell West, or they vote for Jill Stein,
Speaker 2: or they vote for RFK Junior.
Speaker 3: That's enough.
Speaker 2: You know, it really doesn't take a critical mass. It
Speaker 2: only takes a couple of million people in the right states,
Speaker 2: or maybe not even a couple of million. Let's say
Speaker 2: one million people in the right states, which is not
Speaker 2: that much. You know, if we think about the overall
Speaker 2: what one hundred and seventy million people who voted in
Speaker 2: the twenty twenty election, and things can go completely in
Speaker 2: a different direction. Everything is a game of margins here,
Speaker 2: and I don't think that the Biden team is really
Speaker 2: considering and thinking about that. I also agree with you
Speaker 2: on the Israel point, because it was kind of like
Speaker 2: if we were on the two days pun ultimate to
Speaker 2: the withdrawal of Afghanistan and Biden was like, Okay, guys,
Speaker 2: I'm gonna change course and we're going to stay.
Speaker 3: It's like, well, the chaos is baked in, man. You know,
Speaker 3: we already watched the whole thing.
Speaker 2: It's like at this point now you just look vacillating
Speaker 2: and weak, and even you know, with the political system
Speaker 2: as is currently designed, they're not going to even if
Speaker 2: they was a ceasefire or whatever with Israel, like you
Speaker 2: think it's things are just gonna end. You're still gonna
Speaker 2: have a refugee crisis. You have all this diplomatic negotiation.
Speaker 2: Now we're thinking about two state solution. Are we're gonna
Speaker 2: recognize the Palestinians or not what about post governance. It's
Speaker 2: not like peoplere gonna stop starving, you know, overnight or anything.
Speaker 3: This is present. The story's gonna be here for years.
Speaker 2: I mean, that's the one thing is when the when
Speaker 2: the war initially started, we looked at this and we're like,
Speaker 2: it's gonna it's this is a years long thing.
Speaker 3: Now, this year's long, no matter.
Speaker 2: What, even if you wrap things up a ceasefire after
Speaker 2: one week, rafa or you know, sorry, uh, Gaza city
Speaker 2: is gone. So now what you know, it's like these
Speaker 2: this is a story that's going to be at the
Speaker 2: front of the headline in the same way Ukraine is.
Speaker 2: You know, Ukraine fighting there has been very down you know,
Speaker 2: it's just this hasn't been as bad in terms of
Speaker 2: the front line. Everything is cold, exter, but it's still
Speaker 2: existential for the people in Ukraine. The situation for the
Speaker 2: going forward a they're gonna be in NATO? Are they
Speaker 2: not gonna be in NATO? We're gonnahip weapons to them?
Speaker 2: What about the Brits and all that? These things take
Speaker 2: a long time. You look at Iraq, We've been there
Speaker 2: for over twenty years and we're still having met We
Speaker 2: bottomed Iraq yesterday. You cannot put these things back in
Speaker 2: the bottle, which is why the initial days of policy
Speaker 2: matter so so much, especially to a lot of Americans
Speaker 2: and voters. Yeah, as we saw with the dearborn Michigan mayor,
Speaker 2: he's like, listen, if you don't want to do anything,
Speaker 2: that's fine, but maybe I'm just not going to vote
Speaker 2: for you.
Speaker 4: Yeah, that's right.
Speaker 1: And this is a died in the old Democrat, you
Speaker 1: know who is a Democratic mayor And he won't even
Speaker 1: meet with the Biden campaign manager because he understandably finds
Speaker 1: it insulting that what you want to talk to me
Speaker 1: right now about is electoral politics when I personally know
Speaker 1: constituents whose family members have been killed in this conflict,
Speaker 1: and you want to talk to me about electoral politics, like,
Speaker 1: get out of here. And he was on CNN and
Speaker 1: he did an excellent job because he had asked the
Speaker 1: question the like, well, you know what about Trump? It
Speaker 1: was like how basically I'm paraphrasing, this is not how
Speaker 1: you put it, but like how dare you? Where's your
Speaker 1: question of Biden of like why are you risking democracy
Speaker 1: in order to back this insane right wing net Yahoo government?
Speaker 1: Why are you doing that? That's the real question to
Speaker 1: ask here. So, I mean, there is there's a lot
Speaker 1: going on here. But you know, one of the things
Speaker 1: that I was thinking about is since Trump burst on
Speaker 1: the scene, he has become the central dividing line in
Speaker 1: American politics. And it's one of the things that I've
Speaker 1: hated about the Trump era because it basically squeezes out
Speaker 1: any of the real like vision, policy direction questions that
Speaker 1: you know, that I would like our politics to.
Speaker 4: Actually center on.
Speaker 1: It just becomes about how do you feel about the
Speaker 1: personality of Donald Trump? And the Biden team's assumption is
Speaker 1: basically that is going to continue to hold and he's
Speaker 1: going to continue to serve as this incredible force of
Speaker 1: negative polarization where Biden can basically do anything so long
Speaker 1: as he is not Trump. That anti Trump coalition is
Speaker 1: going to hold together just like it did in twenty twenty,
Speaker 1: and they are going to suck it up and they're
Speaker 1: going to come out again enthusiastically in high numbers to
Speaker 1: vote against Donald Trump. And I'm just not sure that
Speaker 1: that cake still bakes the way that it used to.
Speaker 1: I think it's worn a little thin. I think people
Speaker 1: have justifiably have other concerns that they're worried about, and
Speaker 1: they're not willing to just vote out of fear anymore,
Speaker 1: and the terror of potentially, well, what if Donald Trump
Speaker 1: gets elected, because the reality is they've already been to
Speaker 1: that movie. They know they may not have enjoyed when
Speaker 1: Donald Trump was in office, but they survived, they got
Speaker 1: to the other side of it. And then there's this
Speaker 1: other aspect of you know, Trump is an incredible showman,
Speaker 1: and when so much of our politics has collapsed to
Speaker 1: like vibes in the theater, you got one guy who's
Speaker 1: like charismatic and has swagger and another guy who they
Speaker 1: won't even let do interviews. So there's that piece as well, which,
Speaker 1: again I wish that didn't matter that much. You know,
Speaker 1: I wish it wasn't all a show. I wish it
Speaker 1: wasn't all just the political theater and the vibes of it.
Speaker 1: But that's the reality of how American politics operates at
Speaker 1: this point.
Speaker 3: Absolutely, that's really well said.
Speaker 2: And yeah, I mean, we would be stupid as analysts
Speaker 2: not to note that that is very obviously the case.
Speaker 2: Let's move on to the next part here, because it
Speaker 2: highlights again some of the problems for Biden in that
Speaker 2: showmanship piece. For the second year in a row, Biden
Speaker 2: has decided not to take part in a pre super
Speaker 2: Bowl interview.
Speaker 3: This is crazy for a variety of reasons.
Speaker 2: The super Bowl is the most watched event in all
Speaker 2: of America.
Speaker 3: I actually went back and checked Crystal.
Speaker 2: Out of the one hundred top broadcasts of twenty twenty three.
Speaker 3: For ninety four were football related.
Speaker 2: The only thing this country still watches, the only thing
Speaker 2: that we're all tied together is football.
Speaker 3: I don't even watch it.
Speaker 4: Would be ninety four football. I guess. Yeah.
Speaker 2: Every week different markets, games, et cetera.
Speaker 5: People in the.
Speaker 2: Comments can tell me all about their wars with their
Speaker 2: regional broadcasters. I've even I failed to understand how exact
Speaker 2: you're supposed watch fotball in this country across five channel
Speaker 2: streaming services extra. The point is is that everybody watches
Speaker 2: the super Bowl pretty much. The vast majority of Americans
Speaker 2: will engage with the Super Bowl in some way or
Speaker 2: the other, either online or actually watching the event live.
Speaker 2: The pre Super Bowl interview is a hallmark tradition of
Speaker 2: the American presidency. They don't do it, you know, for kicks.
Speaker 2: They do it because it's the easiest way to reach
Speaker 2: the vast majority of people when they're getting ready for
Speaker 2: the game. The second year in a row now deciding
Speaker 2: not to take part in the interview, and it's look,
Speaker 2: I mean, this is not going to be a very
Speaker 2: tough interview. It's like with a friendly news organization too.
Speaker 2: And yet the explanation that they give is totally ridiculous
Speaker 2: when they're blind the fact that he's afraid that he's old,
Speaker 2: and that it's going to come across. The more that
Speaker 2: people see him, the less they're going to vote for him.
Speaker 2: Here was their excuse the Biden campaign to CNN when
Speaker 2: asked about this.
Speaker 8: Just gotten this news from CBS that the White House
Speaker 8: has turned down a request for the President to participate
Speaker 8: in that traditional interview.
Speaker 3: Before the Super Bowl.
Speaker 8: So I don't have to tell you. This is the
Speaker 8: night where I think more Americans tune in than any
Speaker 8: other night of the year. It is the most popular
Speaker 8: programming of the year. So why was that decision made?
Speaker 3: Well, yeah, I'll.
Speaker 9: Certainly be tuning into the game, but I don't know
Speaker 9: about you. During pregame, I'm usually still making my chillier,
Speaker 9: putting my beer in the cooler. So I don't know
Speaker 9: how many eyeballs we're going to lose during pregame coverage.
Speaker 9: This campaign is definitely going to do everything it needs
Speaker 9: to do to reach the voters who are going to
Speaker 9: decide this election. That's why we're running an ad during
Speaker 9: the Grammys tomorrow night, for example.
Speaker 8: Yeah, but running an ad during the Grammys, I mean
Speaker 8: that costs you something. This is free advertising if you
Speaker 8: will that. This is millions and millions, tens of millions
Speaker 8: of eyeballs. So why would the president not want to
Speaker 8: do that? It seems like an easy decision.
Speaker 9: Again, the President's going to continue to campaign and continue
Speaker 9: to hold interviews across the country from now through November.
Speaker 9: I'm not too concerned about pregame coverage right now.
Speaker 2: Okay, So their reasoning is, well, we buy ads during
Speaker 2: the Grammys. So in twenty twenty two, sorry, twenty twenty three,
Speaker 2: twelve point five million people watch the Grammys.
Speaker 3: I want to meet these people and be like, what's
Speaker 3: wrong with you? But that's a second story.
Speaker 2: One hundred and fifteen million people watch the super Bowl
Speaker 2: in twenty twenty three. Yeah, so ten times the number
Speaker 2: of people watch the super Bowl as opposed to watch
Speaker 2: the Grammys, and yet they're like, well, we bought ads
Speaker 2: at the Gramm What.
Speaker 3: Are these people doing?
Speaker 2: Unless the less that we see in Biden, the more
Speaker 2: that we see of something else that may have caused
Speaker 2: you to vote against Trump, is their best strategy. Now,
Speaker 2: I do want to be honest, I think this is
Speaker 2: probably their best strategy. The more the people see of Biden,
Speaker 2: it's I mean, people are like, Wow, this man is
Speaker 2: so old.
Speaker 3: I literally cannot believe he's the president. He also is
Speaker 3: very reluctant.
Speaker 2: He has given less interviews than any prior president in
Speaker 2: modern American history, press conferences as well.
Speaker 3: Why because he talks out of turn and.
Speaker 2: He's probably going to get asked an uncomfortable question or two,
Speaker 2: even in a friendly interview Crystal about Israel, and what's
Speaker 2: he going to say.
Speaker 3: I don't know, he doesn't know.
Speaker 2: He barely even knows what he's going to say about Israel,
Speaker 2: about the border, about all these issues where he's dramatically
Speaker 2: you know, underwater with the American people. Not to mention,
Speaker 2: he could have you know, some flubb in terms of
Speaker 2: his age. So this is a real problem for him.
Speaker 2: I mean, I just think it's an immense sign of
Speaker 2: weakness to not take part in this interview, and A
Speaker 2: it's undemocratic, you know, in terms of not wanting to
Speaker 2: show yourself.
Speaker 3: But B it does show you how that is the
Speaker 3: this is their only chance that.
Speaker 2: People come out to vote against Trump. It may work too,
Speaker 2: that's the crazy part.
Speaker 1: I think you're right that if I was his campaign eight,
Speaker 1: if I was dedicating my life to getting Joe Biden
Speaker 1: re elected, as is probably a choice that would make
Speaker 1: as well, because of two reasons. Number one, it's painful
Speaker 1: to listen to him. Every sentence is like torturous, and
Speaker 1: it's like uncomfortable because you are wondering at all times
Speaker 1: if he's going to be able to stick the landing
Speaker 1: or if his brain is just going to like melt
Speaker 1: in front of your eyes. So there's that, And then
Speaker 1: there's also the fact every time he does open his
Speaker 1: mouth he's like a little bit too honest, you know,
Speaker 1: like when he got asked about the our strikes on
Speaker 1: the hoofies, like, hey, is this working, He's like is
Speaker 1: it working? No?
Speaker 4: Is it going to continue?
Speaker 3: Yes?
Speaker 1: So I think there's also a fear of him, of
Speaker 1: the old man being a little bit too accidentally, honest
Speaker 1: in the insanity that is our foreign policy and many
Speaker 1: other policies besides at this point, and that's not the
Speaker 1: only time when he, as you put it, Zaga, spoken
Speaker 1: on a turn and gotten himself into hot water. I mean,
Speaker 1: how many times have there been comments about China and
Speaker 1: Taiwan that we're all over the map?
Speaker 4: That caused all kinds of diplomatic issues as well.
Speaker 1: So they're like, you know what, the best thing we
Speaker 1: can do is keep this man under wraps, record some
Speaker 1: ads where we have one hundred percent control over what
Speaker 1: the messaging is and how wears and what we're doing here.
Speaker 1: And then you know, just like hope and pray that
Speaker 1: Trump is enough to keep people in line once again
Speaker 1: one war time.
Speaker 4: Lynn, Let's hope that those midterm results.
Speaker 1: Let's hope that those special election results carry over for
Speaker 1: Joe Biden as well.
Speaker 2: Yeah, well, I mean, like you said, it's not a
Speaker 2: bad strategy. At the same time, in terms of bleeding
Speaker 2: young voters.
Speaker 3: Let's put this up there. This is a hilarious little
Speaker 3: tidbit that we can show you, he says.
Speaker 2: The White House, in a reflection of their public confidence
Speaker 2: regarding the politics of Biden on Israel has arranged a
Speaker 2: call with the Senator John Fetterman. Fetterman has delighted in
Speaker 2: trolling left wing critics by resolutely standing with Israel since
Speaker 2: October seventh, telling me young voters to consider the implications
Speaker 2: of enabling a candidate who had likely given Nettau even
Speaker 2: more of a free hand. So I guess what is
Speaker 2: it the Fetterman justification as well? But Trump, which I
Speaker 2: mean maybe is right, but we don't have necessarily counterfactual
Speaker 2: because Trump is not currently the president in terms of
Speaker 2: how he's handling this, and actually has been very quiet
Speaker 2: of what he actually thinks about Israel and Gaza, which
Speaker 2: again I always sense from that man he has timing,
Speaker 2: He knows exactly what's popular, what's not, what to speak
Speaker 2: out on of a than when it concerns actually himself
Speaker 2: and his legal problems. But he seems to think that
Speaker 2: Fetterman can bail him out or give him some advice
Speaker 2: with young voters, which is especially ironic, Crystal, because if
Speaker 2: we go and we pull the Crosstab polling not just
Speaker 2: on Israel, but with Fetterman himself. Fetterman has had an
Speaker 2: increase in popularity in Pennsylvania. You want to guess with whom.
Speaker 3: Boomers all right, boomer loving Yeah, boomers and wine mobs,
Speaker 3: they're loving John Fetterman. They like his his stick.
Speaker 2: Actually, young people know they're not very pro John Fetterman
Speaker 2: at all. You know, he's no longer pothead Fetterman and
Speaker 2: talking about dress code and all that, the Israel stuff,
Speaker 2: and you know, basically basically being a hardcore Biden stand
Speaker 2: has definitely won him, you know, points with the MSNBC Faithful,
Speaker 2: but that's not young people well, and.
Speaker 1: Even the MSNBC Faithful the favor of a seas fire
Speaker 1: and they're overwhelmingly opposed to find his.
Speaker 4: Policy on Israel as well.
Speaker 1: So if you're I don't know what you're going to
Speaker 1: John Fetterman for, I mean, I guess it's maybe you
Speaker 1: can commiserate about both of you having trouble completing a
Speaker 1: sentence or formulating a thought as evidence by put this
Speaker 1: up on the screen. The reporter at the INTERCEP prem talker.
Speaker 1: He interviewed John Fetterman about his support for suspending aid
Speaker 1: to UNRA at a time when you know, cousins are
Speaker 1: literally starving to death, while allegations against point zero four
Speaker 1: percent of its staff are investigated versus his opposition and
Speaker 1: doing the same for Israeli forces through the ICJ and
Speaker 1: a US court both say are plausibly committing a genocide.
Speaker 4: Here's what he said, quote, well again it well, it's not.
Speaker 1: We need a full investigation and find out just how
Speaker 1: much a part of it was about that and how
Speaker 1: much you know, the old question, how much they knew
Speaker 1: and when they knew that the intercept. So you're saying
Speaker 1: that for Israel as well, Fetterman, Yeah, okay, so good,
Speaker 1: all right, well good, what that's the man that you're
Speaker 1: going to for advice on Israel and appeal and I
Speaker 1: don't know what it means.
Speaker 4: I don't know what it means, but there you go.
Speaker 1: That's the man that they're seeking advice from him. And
Speaker 1: Morning Joe apparently sager.
Speaker 3: Yes, that's right, Morgan, Joe.
Speaker 2: We can't forget actually our own James Lee, who does
Speaker 2: partner content for us.
Speaker 3: He's done some fantastic segments.
Speaker 2: He was on the ground in Nevada and he decided
Speaker 2: to go and interview some people who decided that they
Speaker 2: weren't going to vote for Joe Biden.
Speaker 3: So let's hear from them. In their own words.
Speaker 10: Do you think Joe Biden has done a good job
Speaker 10: in the last three or four years?
Speaker 7: Terrible in my opinion. I'm sorry, but he done a
Speaker 7: terrible job. I have a daughter thats just retired from
Speaker 7: the military.
Speaker 3: You know what I'm saying, Biden versus Trump. Do you
Speaker 3: have any thoughts there?
Speaker 10: Neither one? Neither one, because I know Nevada is a
Speaker 10: swing state kind of It's definitely not a shoe in
Speaker 10: like California. So even with those conditions, you would still say,
Speaker 10: maybe if it comes down to it Trump versus Biden,
Speaker 10: you would still sit it out.
Speaker 3: I will have to sit out with Trump rusts Biden.
Speaker 2: I thought that was interesting in terms of not only
Speaker 2: in terms of him saying it would sit it out,
Speaker 2: but he wouldn't be said. I also know did what
Speaker 2: he said there, chrys OWI said, my daughter just retired
Speaker 2: from the military.
Speaker 3: You know, these are people who are watching. We have
Speaker 3: three American service members who were just killed, and.
Speaker 2: You know, it's one of those where if you have
Speaker 2: a family member or any others who was in service,
Speaker 2: especially if they're deployed to the Middle East, you're rightfully
Speaker 2: asking very legit questions. They're also, you know, just to
Speaker 2: highlight Biden's strategy here. This is something I've been thinking
Speaker 2: about a lot, where how cursed we are as Americans
Speaker 2: to have two successive presidents.
Speaker 3: Obsessed with cable news.
Speaker 2: And it's funny too, because Biden was somebody who would
Speaker 2: make fun of Trump for his obsession with Fox News
Speaker 2: and Fox and Friends and all that. But it turns
Speaker 2: out he's just the liberal side of the coin. Let's
Speaker 2: put this up there on the screen. Biden is quote
Speaker 2: obsessed with Mourning Joe. They say that the White House
Speaker 2: aids appear on MSNBC's Morning Joe. They're often booked between
Speaker 2: seven and seven forty because they want to reach who
Speaker 2: President Biden.
Speaker 3: I remember when people would make fun of Trump aids
Speaker 3: for doing this. They say.
Speaker 2: Biden's year's long love an MSNBC's staple morning show affects
Speaker 2: how the White House runs and who Biden listens to.
Speaker 2: The President often calls Joe Scarborough, who is now a
Speaker 2: harsh critic of Donald Trump, to get Scarborough's take on issues,
Speaker 2: and sometimes vent about media coverage.
Speaker 3: During the day.
Speaker 2: He has often asked his staff whether they saw a story,
Speaker 2: a poll, or a segment that has been on the show.
Speaker 2: He includes show regulars in regular off the record conversations
Speaker 2: with experts, and Biden pays particular attention to morning listeners
Speaker 2: morningtime regulars such as Mike Barnacle, Foreign Balls, the expert
Speaker 2: Richard Hawes, and historian John Meacham, who has assisted on
Speaker 2: several Biden speeches.
Speaker 3: I mean, this is beyond parody.
Speaker 2: It is literally the inverse to the Fox and Friends
Speaker 2: madness that happened. And yet, you know, I mean, by
Speaker 2: the way, courage Alex Thompson at acxious actually writing this
Speaker 2: story because it does show you really who Biden is.
Speaker 2: Biden has a died in the wole Normy MSNBC lib
Speaker 2: and he's it's like to understand that is, to understand
Speaker 2: so many of his proclivities, is understanding of American politics
Speaker 2: and so much more. And it also just shows us
Speaker 2: that the rotting husk of cable still has so much
Speaker 2: power in this country because the right people watch it.
Speaker 2: They're obsessed with what these dwindling idiots say on cable television.
Speaker 3: It's just stunning to me.
Speaker 1: Well, and if you were going to pick one show
Speaker 1: on MSNBC, which would be like the worst show possible
Speaker 1: to get advice from. Because there are different flavors of liberalism,
Speaker 1: of you know, Democratic party obsession, liberalism within the MSNBC
Speaker 1: banner Morning Joe is the one that's like decorum above all,
Speaker 1: resistance to Trump above any other like particular policy decision.
Speaker 4: It's the most.
Speaker 1: Conventional wisdom of conventional wisdom, and so the fact that
Speaker 1: Joe Biden is relying for his reelection on the advice
Speaker 1: primarily of Joe Scarborough and John Fetterman, it actually makes
Speaker 1: all the sense in the world totally when you look
Speaker 1: at the decision making and what is unfolding before us,
Speaker 1: and how they are in a horrific position in terms
Speaker 1: of actually winning re election. But you're so right, I mean,
Speaker 1: even down to it has so many echoes of Trump,
Speaker 1: even down to you know, the aids trying to get
Speaker 1: booked in the right time slot to get a message
Speaker 1: to Biden that he apparently won't receive face to face.
Speaker 1: He'll only pay attention to it when it's being broadcast
Speaker 1: on Mourning Joe. I mean, that's identical with Trump. Trump,
Speaker 1: how his aids and his advisors and people wanted to
Speaker 1: influence him, they would do the exact same thing. They
Speaker 1: would try to communicate with him via Fox News and
Speaker 1: Fox and Friends versus in person, because he would take
Speaker 1: that more seriously. It is a sad, pathetic, degraded, decaying
Speaker 1: political system that we have here that they are paying
Speaker 1: attention at all to what any of these blathering idiots
Speaker 1: have to say.
Speaker 2: I just don't get it, and especially because you know,
Speaker 2: can you read the news, like, can you look at numbers?
Speaker 3: I just read a New Times article three days ago.
Speaker 3: I just pulled it up here.
Speaker 2: Quote more people are watching the Hallmark Channel than CNN.
Speaker 2: The world needs love, and Hallmark is cashing in. Hallmark,
Speaker 2: by the way, is having a resurgence because they're find
Speaker 2: themselves in the top ten of overall cable news channels.
Speaker 3: That's the type of stuff that people are watching on
Speaker 3: caple Like you're losing to the Hallmark channel.
Speaker 2: We're talking about CNN, and yet the amount of power
Speaker 2: they still, you know, remain and they have in this country,
Speaker 2: it's just stunning. Look, we can talk about it all
Speaker 2: day long, we can hope for a future, but when
Speaker 2: you've got a bunch of boomers, and I mean Biden's
Speaker 2: not even a boomer, He's like silent generation.
Speaker 3: Yeah, who have grown up with this and the power
Speaker 3: that they have.
Speaker 2: I like to think that even if I grew up
Speaker 2: in the podcast era or whatever, let's say, and I
Speaker 2: was running for office, let's say, TikTok, which I'm not on,
Speaker 2: you know, is as popular, even more popular in the future.
Speaker 2: Obviously you pay attention to TikTok, I'd be like, Okay,
Speaker 2: what are people watching. I'm old, you know, this is
Speaker 2: the medium I prefer. But these guys are so locked
Speaker 2: in to their medium. I just look, it's a different
Speaker 2: reac that they're living in. And that's very key to understand,
Speaker 2: very very key.
Speaker 1: It is truly a different reality and a complete bubble
Speaker 1: that they have sealed themselves into.
Speaker 3: Absolutely.
Speaker 2: Let's move to the next part here about the Trump prosecutor,
Speaker 2: Fannie Willis. We've brought you guys some of the updates,
Speaker 2: but this one in particular, it's pretty big.
Speaker 3: Let's put this up there on the screen.
Speaker 2: So Fannie Willis, who is the prosecutor in the state
Speaker 2: of Georgia who has brought that case against Trump, which
Speaker 2: honestly was one of the strongest cases against Trump. Because
Speaker 2: election law is totally governed by the individual states where
Speaker 2: they prosecute they're prosecuting him for interfering in the election. Well,
Speaker 2: it turns out that the special prosecutor who she hired,
Speaker 2: Nathan Wade in November of twenty twenty one. She has
Speaker 2: now admitted, after divorce filings in his personal case have
Speaker 2: come to light that she did have a quote personal
Speaker 2: relationship with that prosecutor that she hired in the Trump
Speaker 2: Georgia case. Now, the critical part of this crystal is
Speaker 2: not the affair and personal relationship that she had with
Speaker 2: mister Wade. It's the fact that the State of Georgia
Speaker 2: has paid him nearly six hundred and fifty thousand dollars
Speaker 2: for his work as is prosecutor in this case. Previously,
Speaker 2: eyebrows had been raised because mister Wade did not have
Speaker 2: significant experience. There are a lot of questions in the state, like, hey,
Speaker 2: why is she picking this guy? And secondary to that
Speaker 2: is that and Ryan and I spoke about this. Georgia
Speaker 2: law is actually pretty clear whenever it comes to corruption
Speaker 2: and in kind donations. So if you were funneling money
Speaker 2: to your lover in this particular case, and you guys
Speaker 2: are staying in hotel rooms that he pays for and
Speaker 2: you're not reimbursing for that. You don't make that immediately
Speaker 2: known to the state, you are in technical violation here.
Speaker 2: This is frankly grounds to fall apart for the entire case.
Speaker 2: I mean Trump, who all of this was surfaced by,
Speaker 2: it seems some opposition researchers and others, And it just
Speaker 2: brings the question of like, who do these people think
Speaker 2: they are? You and I were talking about the yesterday,
Speaker 2: if you believe the democracy at stake, and Trump interfered, like,
Speaker 2: maybe hire a different guy, you know, maybe you know,
Speaker 2: maybe hire the most experienced person if you are having
Speaker 2: an affair with this guy, and.
Speaker 3: Be like, hey, Nathan, let's call it off.
Speaker 2: You know, while this is all going down, Because even
Speaker 2: the appearance of this is if it ever got out,
Speaker 2: it would look really bad. And lo and behold, it
Speaker 2: looks really bad. It could even be grounds for a challenge.
Speaker 2: I mean, it very easily could. And then in the
Speaker 2: court of public opinion, this is all Trump needs. He'd
Speaker 2: be like, you are just you know, you're accusing me
Speaker 2: a corruption. You're coming after me, but breaking the law.
Speaker 2: Look at you, and this is all anybody needs.
Speaker 3: To discredit the entire case.
Speaker 2: It's like these people I really believe that they have
Speaker 2: such arrogance and they think they're think they're defending the
Speaker 2: law by being above the law, that they think they're
Speaker 2: like imperial princes who just shouldn't be subject to the
Speaker 2: same problems as the rest of us, And in that way,
Speaker 2: they're just as bad as Trump. They're just as bad
Speaker 2: in the mindset that they occupy to conduct themselves in
Speaker 2: this manner as supposed public servants.
Speaker 1: It is genuinely hard for me to wrap my head
Speaker 1: around because, like you said, I mean, yeah, sure, the
Speaker 1: people who are coming after you for this are bad
Speaker 1: faith and they will be looking for anything to tear
Speaker 1: this case apart and tear you apart, etc.
Speaker 4: You should absolutely know that going.
Speaker 1: In like be as squeaky clean as you possibly can,
Speaker 1: and yeah, they're still going to come after you and
Speaker 1: try to tear your character apart, but don't hand them
Speaker 1: the hammer that they can use to destroy you. I
Speaker 1: just I really can't fathom the level of arrogance that
Speaker 1: it takes to think that this is all going to
Speaker 1: just be fine and no one's gonna notice and no
Speaker 1: one's gonna say anything.
Speaker 4: When you know, I mean, the stakes are genuinely really
Speaker 4: really high.
Speaker 1: This is one of the more serious cases against Trump,
Speaker 1: as we've discussed before, because of the fact that it's
Speaker 1: state law, because of the fact you have this powerful
Speaker 1: rico law in Georgia, because of the fact that you
Speaker 1: have you know, this wide ranging all these defendants that
Speaker 1: you know, would be very difficult for Trump to sort
Speaker 1: of wiggle's way out of it.
Speaker 4: You've got their rolling up, some of these defendants are
Speaker 4: flipping on Drumman. There's a lot here to this case.
Speaker 1: And even if and I think it's likely that it
Speaker 1: doesn't actually entirely kill the case, and like the whole
Speaker 1: thing doesn't fall apart because of her you know, corruption
Speaker 1: and affair in the whole situation, I think it's likely
Speaker 1: that the case continues a pace.
Speaker 4: As it has been.
Speaker 1: But Trump's whole strategy here has been much more about
Speaker 1: the political than about the legal. In the legal he's
Speaker 1: been actually getting kind of crushed in terms of his
Speaker 1: civil suits haven't been going well for him.
Speaker 4: We're about to talk about some reporting where.
Speaker 1: He basically sort of assumes that he is going to
Speaker 1: be convicted on at least some of these charges. So
Speaker 1: he is whole strategy for being able to overcome both
Speaker 1: the legal challenges and get himself back into the White House.
Speaker 1: Is all political and you have just handed him the
Speaker 1: greatest gift of all time, Like, what are you doing?
Speaker 5: It is?
Speaker 4: It is insane to me that she thought.
Speaker 1: This would all be fine, that she could just bring
Speaker 1: in her boyfriend, and again I don't care about the affair,
Speaker 1: but bring in your boy paying seven hundred thousand dollars,
Speaker 1: go on vacations with him, and think that this was
Speaker 1: all just going to pass without a word and no
Speaker 1: one was gonna notice, especially when you have the scored
Speaker 1: ex wife out there desperate to Because that's how it
Speaker 1: came out, is she included her listed of Fanny.
Speaker 4: Willis's name in a dwars filing.
Speaker 1: That's how the rumors started swirling and how she ended
Speaker 1: up being forced to come clean with this quote unquote
Speaker 1: personal relationship.
Speaker 3: Yeah, well that yeah, what is it? The whole hell?
Speaker 3: Hath no fury like a woman's scorn.
Speaker 2: I mean, it's just absolutely insane, the whole way that
Speaker 2: she would conduct herself this way. Let's put the next
Speaker 2: one please up here, because it really highlights what you're
Speaker 2: talking about, Crystal, about Trump's conviction scenario. We actually have
Speaker 2: a pull quote that we can put the next one please,
Speaker 2: that shows us that Trump thinks he could still win
Speaker 2: in November, partly by making daily theatrical appearances whenever the
Speaker 2: courts are hearing his four cases totaling ninety one felony charges.
Speaker 2: His advisors worry independence will be turned off by a
Speaker 2: conviction in huretrial.
Speaker 3: I genuinely do not know how to feel about this.
Speaker 2: I think that when criminal charges enter the realm, entirely
Speaker 2: of public opinion. I'm generally of the opinion that it's
Speaker 2: a wash in that people will be like, well, you know,
Speaker 2: it seems like the case is political as long as
Speaker 2: you can discredit it, if it doesn't seem on its
Speaker 2: space the way that you would think of a normal
Speaker 2: criminal trial like corruption or murder or something like that,
Speaker 2: where it's it's just obvious that you know you committed
Speaker 2: a crime or not. If you're able to prosecute the
Speaker 2: case in the court of public opinion, it could be
Speaker 2: a wash. At the same time, his advisors are not wrong.
Speaker 2: I've seen reams of enough polling to say that there
Speaker 2: are a lot of independent voters out there who say
Speaker 2: that if Trump is convicted, they will not vote for
Speaker 2: him in twenty twenty four.
Speaker 3: Yea, they could say it now, things could change. I
Speaker 3: don't know.
Speaker 2: It's one of those where I'm genuinely of two minds.
Speaker 2: Some people still have a lot of faith in this
Speaker 2: legal system. And let's be honest, a lot of people
Speaker 2: don't pay attention, you know, to the ins and outs.
Speaker 2: They're like, oh, Trump was convicted, that's crazy, that's it.
Speaker 2: We're gonna go on there when's so and so's t
Speaker 2: ball practice, like that's how most people live their lives.
Speaker 2: But if you're enough, if you're engaged, if you're paying attention,
Speaker 2: if you do get the enough of a sense of
Speaker 2: politicization in the courts and especially with all of these
Speaker 2: and it seems like some grand thing as opposed to
Speaker 2: looking at the cases in an individual basis, I could
Speaker 2: see it being more of a washed in him being
Speaker 2: able to win and turn into a showman aspect.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I have a lot of humility about predicting how
Speaker 1: this is all gonna shake out, because I think if
Speaker 1: it was literally any other politician, Republican or Democrat, if
Speaker 1: they were convicted of any you know, significant criminal charge,
Speaker 1: it would basically be.
Speaker 4: It for them.
Speaker 1: I mean, look at Bob Menendez, like he's done in
Speaker 1: New Jersey and he hasn't even convicted yet, just the
Speaker 1: allegations enough in the New Jersey primary, now he's at
Speaker 1: like seven percent or something like that. It's destroyed him.
Speaker 1: It's destroyed his career instantaneously. Trump is different though. He
Speaker 1: gets away with things that no other politicians can get
Speaker 1: away with. I mean, the Access Hollywood tape would have
Speaker 1: destroyed any other politician. And yet he turns it around
Speaker 1: and brings in Bill Clinton's accuser and makes a show
Speaker 1: of it, and you know, keeps everybody in line and
Speaker 1: in some ways strengthens their support, strengthens his base support,
Speaker 1: makes them more enthusiastic, and wins. So you know, yeah,
Speaker 1: the polls pretty consistently show that if he is actually convicted, it's.
Speaker 4: Going to be a big problem for him.
Speaker 1: But people are also notoriously bad at predicting how they're
Speaker 1: going to respond to theoretical scenarios. One thing that might
Speaker 1: help Trump is the fact that this up on the screen.
Speaker 1: In terms of the timing of the cases, the first
Speaker 1: one that is likely to come to some sort of
Speaker 1: conclusion is what legal analysts to the Washington Post called
Speaker 1: the runt of the Trump cases.
Speaker 4: It's now likely to be his first criminal trial.
Speaker 1: This is the Alvin Bragg hush money Stormy Daniels twenty
Speaker 1: sixteen election interference situation that you know, basically they kind
Speaker 1: of had to stretch the law and do some legal
Speaker 1: maneuvering to really make this, you know, a serious criminal
Speaker 1: charge in order to take this to trial. And so
Speaker 1: you know the fact that it's kind of the weakest,
Speaker 1: not even kind of like very clearly the weakest case
Speaker 1: is and the one that people are the least focused on.
Speaker 1: You know what, most people who hate Donald Trump, like
Speaker 1: the thing that they hate is January sixth, and even
Speaker 1: the documents thing is about his just total impunity and
Speaker 1: flouting the rules and doing whatever the hell he wants
Speaker 1: whenever the hell he wants it. It goes more to
Speaker 1: the core of what people really hate about Donald Trump.
Speaker 1: This one is kind of a side issue hasn't got
Speaker 1: a lot of attention. So perhaps the fact that this
Speaker 1: could be the first thing to come down, and I
Speaker 1: think it's fairly decent shot that he does get he
Speaker 1: convicted on these charges because it is New York and
Speaker 1: you know, I think they've got probably enough to keep
Speaker 1: this taste together. Although I don't really know, but I
Speaker 1: do think the fact that this one goes first, maybe
Speaker 1: that's also another advantage for him, where he's able to
Speaker 1: spend it as just political. He's able to make that case,
Speaker 1: and then he's able to just sort of transfer that
Speaker 1: to the other more serious charges. The flip side of
Speaker 1: that is, I argued at the time, is like you
Speaker 1: were saying, Sager, people aren't really paying that much attention
Speaker 1: to the ins and outs. If you think Donald Trump
Speaker 1: is a criminal, you think he's a criminal. You don't
Speaker 1: care if it's like al Capone getting caught on tax evasion.
Speaker 1: You think he deserves to be hit with charges and
Speaker 1: be convicted in front of a jury of his peers.
Speaker 1: And so you know, whether the details are as core
Speaker 1: to your concerns about him or not, you probably just
Speaker 1: feel like, Yeah, the guy's a criminal, he got caught.
Speaker 1: He's finally facing someone accountability, and that's a good thing.
Speaker 2: Yeah.
Speaker 3: I look, I could see it the both way.
Speaker 2: I'm inclined on the New York case, just to say that,
Speaker 2: because they literally had to stretch the Listen, we covered
Speaker 2: a lot at the time.
Speaker 3: People want to go and to look.
Speaker 2: I think we had Brad moss on to talk about that,
Speaker 2: about the you know, the statute and the way it
Speaker 2: had all been stretched. I think we both agreed that
Speaker 2: this was clearly the weakest criminal case against Trump and
Speaker 2: that it is clearly the most like capital p political
Speaker 2: and so yeah, for him, I actually think it's a
Speaker 2: huge victory to have this one go first, because, like
Speaker 2: you said, he can easily cast him.
Speaker 3: Now listen, we could see it the other way too.
Speaker 2: He's a convicted criminal and at the very least one
Speaker 2: thing we have to do sometimes is take this outside
Speaker 2: the realm of the political and be like, this is
Speaker 2: a problem, Like being in.
Speaker 3: Jail is a problem.
Speaker 2: What if you're on probation, Like don't they have sometimes
Speaker 2: they have laws that they're like you can't leave the
Speaker 2: state without admission or whatever.
Speaker 3: Yeah, exactly, Like there could be real issues.
Speaker 2: Now, I mean, that wouldn't necessarily be a bad thing,
Speaker 2: because he could campaign on that. He could probably raise
Speaker 2: a lot of money in that and draw attention. But
Speaker 2: I do think there is a Norman instinct, you know,
Speaker 2: left in the country for a lot of people who
Speaker 2: are like, I don't know, somebody's been convicted that just
Speaker 2: seems bad.
Speaker 3: Like you said, that would be a very much a
Speaker 3: return to the pre Trump era.
Speaker 2: And one thing that has become very clear to me
Speaker 2: from the actual votes cast in twenty twenty two and
Speaker 2: special elections throughout twenty twenty three is that there is
Speaker 2: still quite a bit of instinct on stop the Steal
Speaker 2: in particular, and on Trump like odiousness, people are very
Speaker 2: much willing to vote against now that he is out
Speaker 2: of office.
Speaker 3: So I will not discount that asupport.
Speaker 1: Yeah, force them honestly could have imagined, and I think
Speaker 1: it continues to be and I think that continues to
Speaker 1: show in the election results.
Speaker 4: So I don't know, it's crazy.
Speaker 1: I have no idea how all of this is going
Speaker 1: to I could, like you said, Zager, depending on the day.
Speaker 1: Sometimes I'm like, ah, there's no way Biden wins, and
Speaker 1: other times I'm like yeah, but you know, you got
Speaker 1: these trials, like people are just.
Speaker 4: Kind of ignoring that this is all going to come down.
Speaker 1: By the way, on the other trials, few of them
Speaker 1: have had some delays. You know, it was looking like
Speaker 1: the document's case may continue quickly and may even come
Speaker 1: to some sort of conclusion before the GP nomination wrapped
Speaker 1: up that no longer looks like the case. So those
Speaker 1: jack Smith cases are getting pushed a little bit like
Speaker 1: further and further into the future, which makes it even
Speaker 1: more politically perilous the closer you get to election day. So,
Speaker 1: you know, it's kind of frustrating not knowing what the
Speaker 1: timing of all of these are going to be because
Speaker 1: so much of the analysis hinges on well when is
Speaker 1: this all going to actually come down? But with our
Speaker 1: legal system, there's just you know, it's just guesswork.
Speaker 4: You really don't know.
Speaker 1: How long these appeals process are going to take and
Speaker 1: what the individual judge is going to decide, etcetera, etcetera.
Speaker 3: We'll see what happens is Trump is all we can say.
Speaker 6: H