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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 2: That action all right, here we go throwing spect we're sitting.

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Speaker 2: It's a cash touchdowns.

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Speaker 3: We see most gamble is when they go to gamble,

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Speaker 3: they go to win.

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Speaker 2: That's incredible.

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Speaker 3: Being bank small banks, I like to make money.

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Speaker 2: All right, this is the ultimate combine you want to

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Speaker 2: and we are underway.

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Speaker 3: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast. I am your host,

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Speaker 3: Evan Abrams, and I'm joined as always by Brandon Anderson

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Speaker 3: for some best bets for NFL Week three, but we

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Speaker 3: will get to those bets shortly. I have a few

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Speaker 3: fun trends, some talking points. Will get Brandon's thoughts on these.

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Speaker 3: I'll try to get through these quickly. So number one

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Speaker 3: and ask to me be the early storyline of the

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Speaker 3: NFL season is favorites. Favorites of four points are more

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Speaker 3: twelve and oh straight up and during Thursday night football,

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Speaker 3: but more interesting to me, all twelve teams also twelve

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Speaker 3: to zero in a six point teaser, so doing their

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Speaker 3: job dominating at least early season. And we have eight

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Speaker 3: games with that big of a spread right now for

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Speaker 3: Week three. So that's number one. Number two the title

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Speaker 3: of Week three, and I know Brandon's going to talk

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Speaker 3: a lot about this should be probably called we don't

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Speaker 3: know anything, because since twenty seventeen, oh and two teams

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Speaker 3: are thirty seven nineteen to one against the spread sixty

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Speaker 3: six percent when facing non oh and two teams. There

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Speaker 3: are also eight this week quickly, Miami Jets, Houston, Chicago,

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Speaker 3: New Orleans, Cleveland, Carolina, Tennessee. And I'll leave you with

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Speaker 3: this before we bring in Brandon, because I just think

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Speaker 3: this note'es fun. The O and two Chiefs are currently

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Speaker 3: hovering around a six and a half point road favorite

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Speaker 3: in the TO and two Giants on Sunday Night Football.

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Speaker 3: Since nineteen ninety, we've actually never had a team with

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Speaker 3: no wins and two or more loss closed as a

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Speaker 3: road favorite of seven points or more. The biggest two

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Speaker 3: favorites at six and a half. We're twenty twenty two

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Speaker 3: Joe Burrow and the Bengals they won in the Jets

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Speaker 3: twenty seven to twelve, and nineteen eighty three Cowboys and

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Speaker 3: Troy Aikman won seventeen to ten. We've only had four

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Speaker 3: teams close six or higher all for one, so voting

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Speaker 3: decent for the Chiefs, Brandon anything on any of those.

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Speaker 1: I mean off the top of my head. Those two

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Speaker 1: quarterbacks you mentioned ninety three Cowboys.

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Speaker 2: I believe that's.

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Speaker 1: The year Emmett Smith was a holdout the first two games,

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Speaker 1: and I think they go to the super Bowl that year.

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Speaker 3: Yeah.

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Speaker 1: And the twenty twenty two Bengals I think also went

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Speaker 1: to the Super Bowl and started zero to two and

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Speaker 1: they're the you know, one of the few teams to

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Speaker 1: make that run, did not finish the job there if

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Speaker 1: I got the year right. So yeah, you mentioned the

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Speaker 1: eight teams that we don't know anything. I'm gonna jump

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Speaker 1: in with my own trends here and what I call

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Speaker 1: kitchen sink week, and I'll let you do the ad

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Speaker 1: read after that, but let's just hit all the trends

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Speaker 1: right at the top. So it's kitchen sink week for

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Speaker 1: me too, Evan. I went one in a billion last week,

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Speaker 1: so I'm right there with all the teams you listen off.

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Speaker 1: Here's what kitchen sink week is about. A similar stat

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Speaker 1: to you since twenty ten for mine own two teams

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Speaker 1: week three against not own two teams fifty nine, thirty

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Speaker 1: five and two, So sixty three percent ats if you

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Speaker 1: o season by season in that stretch, if you just

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Speaker 1: bet every one of those kitchen sink teams, so you're

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Speaker 1: throwing everything by the kitchen sync out. At my house,

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Speaker 1: the water heater too, got another busted water heater going on,

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Speaker 1: so you're getting everything you've got. Every season except one

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Speaker 1: has had at least five hundred or within the one

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Speaker 1: game of five hundred. So the trend basically never bus that.

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Speaker 1: Basically what's happening here is we're getting over confident.

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Speaker 2: Right.

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Speaker 1: We have two weeks of data and we think that

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Speaker 1: we know what we know, and then Week three usually

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Speaker 1: tells us we don't and the data backs it up.

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Speaker 1: From cleft on Twitter, Week three is the second biggest

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Speaker 1: upset week of the NFL season, or the last about

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Speaker 1: fifteen years, we have ten straight seasons that favorites have

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Speaker 1: won less games than their pregame win expectancy. We have

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Speaker 1: eight straight years with at least one favorite upset of

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Speaker 1: five points or more. So you mentioned that at the top.

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Speaker 1: We haven't had that big upset yet. The last two

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Speaker 1: years we've had four favorites of a touchdown or more

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Speaker 1: get upset in Week three. So that's those eight teams.

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Speaker 1: By the time folks listen to this, one of them

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Speaker 1: the Dolphins will have already played on Thursday night, we'll

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Speaker 1: get back to Kitchen sinc. I am heavily leaning into

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Speaker 1: the Kitchen Sink trends this week, and I have a

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Speaker 1: lot of signals within, things like it's better if it's

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Speaker 1: a division game, it's better if it's a public side,

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Speaker 1: or if the total is low. Things like that I

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Speaker 1: went through. I ranked all eight of those teams by

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Speaker 1: Kitchen Sink status on a scale of one to ten.

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Speaker 1: And then we'll jump into my picks after the ad.

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Speaker 3: Read yeah, the teaser here. We got a lot of

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Speaker 3: underdogs coming up. All right, The NFL season is underway,

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Speaker 3: and to get the most out of the award winning

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Speaker 3: Action app, you'll want to be an Action Pro subscriber.

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Speaker 3: Because only Pro subscribers get real time pick alerts from

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Speaker 3: experts like Brandon Anderson, Chris Raybun, myself, and our entire

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Speaker 3: Action Network team. Plus you can access our pro projections

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Speaker 3: powered by Sean Kerner and our predictive analytics team. To

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Speaker 3: off a year of Action Pro. All right, time for

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Speaker 3: some bets Week three style. If you want to tail

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Speaker 3: some of these bets, look for the quick slip link

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Speaker 3: in the podcast and video descriptions, or go to actionnetwork

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Speaker 3: dot com slash bet now b e t n ow

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Speaker 3: bet now super easy. They're all sitting there and just

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Speaker 3: click on one by one. All right, Brandon, Kitchen Sink

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Speaker 3: week So you talked about that, you talked about the trends.

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Speaker 3: Now go through the teams you this is your best.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, So I'll just tell you're at the top. We're

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Speaker 1: going heavy on kitchen sink and it is gonna feel

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Speaker 1: ugly because that's really what you need to do in

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Speaker 1: week three. Week three is about betting against your own overconfidence.

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Speaker 1: So I'm going to tell you in a couple of

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Speaker 1: these teams why I think it seems like a dumb pick,

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Speaker 1: but then why we need to do it anyway. So

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Speaker 1: let's start with Onner off the top, give me the

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Speaker 1: Panthers plus six against the Falcons at bet MGM. So

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Speaker 1: this line on Sunday morning was Atlanta minus two and

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Speaker 1: a half. So we moved past the key number all

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Speaker 1: the way to six at some books. I think we

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Speaker 1: even hit a six point five couple times. Probably not

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Speaker 1: going to get there again. By my numbers, I think

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Speaker 1: the initial line was about right now. Of course, my

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Speaker 1: numbers thought Atlanta was going to lose the Vikings on

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Speaker 1: Sunday night, so I had to go back and say, okay,

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Speaker 1: I'm off there, way off, and so I upgraded Atlanta

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Speaker 1: big numbers across the board. I still think that this

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Speaker 1: should be around a field goal, and we're getting a

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Speaker 1: big move to six now. I think the line move

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Speaker 1: is because Carolina's offensive line has a lot of injuries,

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Speaker 1: and that's a problem. Austin Corbett is out, Robert Hunt

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Speaker 1: is out, at Kwan who's banged up.

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Speaker 2: It's not great.

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Speaker 1: I don't love that the Panthers offense has already been

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Speaker 1: not great and Atlanta's defense suddenly looks amazing. Their pressure

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Speaker 1: rate Sunday night was awesome. They did that against a

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Speaker 1: banged up line. But that's what Carolina has in this

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Speaker 1: game also, And by the way, on the other side

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Speaker 1: of things, we saw Sunday night Atlanta run all over Minnesota. Well,

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Speaker 1: Carolina's run defense, particularly their whole defense, but especially against

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Speaker 1: the run, has not been good. So all that sounds

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Speaker 1: like Atlanta. That's the case for Atlanta. But it's only

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Speaker 1: two games so far, and this is about kitchen sink

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Speaker 1: and not being over confident the results. Zoom out a

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Speaker 1: little bit. It's a division rivalry. These teams have split

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Speaker 1: the season series five straight years, and it's knowing the

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Speaker 1: Panthers have been good at any point during that stretch. Really,

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Speaker 1: seven of the last ten one score games, one scorer

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Speaker 1: will do it. I'm not taking the money line here.

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Speaker 1: Just keep it close, Bryce Young, you want to go

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Speaker 1: through the back door again like last week, that's fine

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Speaker 1: by me. Falcons are the number two defense by DVOA.

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Speaker 2: Is that real or is that a little too much?

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Speaker 2: Just yet?

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Speaker 1: They got a third and a fourth round rookie in

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Speaker 1: the secondary starting playing well. We'll see if it holds up.

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Speaker 1: No ag towel for Atlanta. I think that's a big loss.

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Speaker 1: Ted McMillan, rookie for the Panthers, looks like a star ready.

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Speaker 1: Hundred yards last week for them, And really this pick

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Speaker 1: is about the kitchen sink stuff. So for me this

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Speaker 1: I told you I rated them all scale of one

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Speaker 1: to ten. This is an eight point five for me.

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Speaker 1: This is my highest kitchen sink spot of the week.

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Speaker 1: That's why we're starting with it. Some within the kitchen

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Speaker 1: sink trends. Some further numbers. If it's a division game,

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Speaker 1: seventy five percent ATS. If it's a total under forty four,

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Speaker 1: seventy five percent ATS as well, if the opponent scored

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Speaker 1: under twenty seven points both games, seventy one percent hit rate. Again,

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Speaker 1: we just need to keep it close. The Falcons aren't

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Speaker 1: putting up huge point totals here.

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Speaker 2: They run away.

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Speaker 1: That moves the clock and keeps it closer. The Panthers

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Speaker 1: also are a public team. They're getting about two thirds

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Speaker 1: of the bet. That bodes well within these kitchen sink trends.

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Speaker 1: And the Falcons as a one to one team also

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Speaker 1: makes seventy percent ATS. So I don't like it either.

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Speaker 1: It's gross. It's not gonna feel good. That exactly is

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Speaker 1: why we have to play it. So Panthers plus six

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Speaker 1: to start at our kitchen sink week.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I think the story here is the Carolina online injuries,

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Speaker 3: the Terrell injury. On Atlanta's side, I mean, and I

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Speaker 3: think the stories Atlanta's defense held up pretty well top

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Speaker 3: eightliterate seven sacks. They've looked very formidable, which they haven't

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Speaker 3: in previous years. I think the only thing that you

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Speaker 3: might like and I like Carolina too, kind of waiting

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Speaker 3: for the six. I'm gonna track some picks tonight and

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Speaker 3: I think that probably will be one of them. But

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Speaker 3: opponents the opposing teams four of nine in the red

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Speaker 3: zone versus Carolina. Atlanta's been struggling there as well, so

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Speaker 3: maybe they settle for some field goals. That's how they

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Speaker 3: keep it tight. So I like Carolina. All right, what's

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Speaker 3: up next?

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Speaker 2: Up next?

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Speaker 1: Another gross one? I'll tell you right now. One of

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Speaker 1: these two is going to go sideways and make us

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Speaker 1: feel like absolute idiots for betting it. But we're betting them.

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Speaker 1: Give me the Jets Jets plus seven at the Bucks

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Speaker 1: at DraftKings this time. The offensive line injuries help us.

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Speaker 1: So on Tampa Bay, we still don't know about Tristan Wurfs.

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Speaker 1: I would really love him not to play for this pick.

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Speaker 1: But the whole right side of the line is out.

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Speaker 1: Luke Getticky is out indefinitely. My guy NDSU Cody Mouk

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Speaker 1: is out. We got to learn how to pronounce his

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Speaker 1: name everyone, Cody Mouk He's a star, but he's out

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Speaker 1: for the season now. Those two guys with Wurfs out. Also,

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Speaker 1: that's a full point downgrade on the spread, not just

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Speaker 1: from Warfs. That's additional to worst because you get an

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Speaker 1: offensive line in cornerback in particular, cluster injuries can really

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Speaker 1: bring your team down. And that's three starters from what

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Speaker 1: was supposed to be a top five offensive line that

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Speaker 1: look like they're missing. That's a lot of pressure on

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Speaker 1: Baker Mayfield. Also Klaijahkansi on the other side of the line,

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Speaker 1: he's out for the season for Tampa Bay. So a

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Speaker 1: lot of stuff the trenches this week. Those big boys

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Speaker 1: up front. We know how much I like to give

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Speaker 1: stock there. So with the Jets, they've got an offensive

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Speaker 1: injury as well. Justin Fields, Okay, is Tyron Taylor a

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Speaker 1: downgrade from justin Fields? Is Tyron Taylor an upgrade from

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Speaker 1: Justin Fields? I think of this matchup for us, he

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Speaker 1: might be I think you limit the long term ceiling

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Speaker 1: with him, but you're gonna cut the mistakes down you

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Speaker 1: get a better passer. Justin Fields was not passing well

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Speaker 1: at all last week, so it's not much of a

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Speaker 1: high bar, but I didn't love the matchup here. The

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Speaker 1: Jets are the run heaviest team and the box run

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Speaker 1: defense vitavea great Okay, Well, Tyra diversifies.

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Speaker 2: A little bit. Maybe maybe we get a little bit

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Speaker 2: more passing that way.

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Speaker 1: This does look like a weather game potentially as well,

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Speaker 1: some wind and rain, and I think for Tampa it's

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Speaker 1: an obvious letdown spot. You got a short week off

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Speaker 1: Monday night, huge back to back comeback wins down the stretch,

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Speaker 1: and now it's just the Jets. So seven points is

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Speaker 1: just a lot for me. DVA you can't use too

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Speaker 1: much yet this early in the year, but these teams

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Speaker 1: are nineteenth and twenty first by dvway, so not really

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Speaker 1: that far apart. And that's about where my numbers make

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Speaker 1: it too. Jets special teams, big advantage. I make this

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Speaker 1: around bucks minus two, so it's not gonna feel good

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Speaker 1: at all. But another kitchen sink spot is my fourth

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Speaker 1: rated kitchen sink spot and one extra trend to point

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Speaker 1: out here, and this is actually for a handful of

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Speaker 1: the teams this year. The single best indicator within the

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Speaker 1: Kitchen Sinc trends is a team that is coming off

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Speaker 1: a loss of twenty points or more. The teams we

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Speaker 1: feel the absolute worst about. That's when you have to

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Speaker 1: buy in those teams. Since twenty ten, fifteen and two

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Speaker 1: ats eighty eight percent hit rate. So there's a great

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Speaker 1: spot to back the Jets. This is the top Luck

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Speaker 1: Rankings play of the week. Nick Giffen says weeks three

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Speaker 1: and four are the best times to play luck ranking

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Speaker 1: side seventy five percent hit rate there. So this is

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Speaker 1: about the spot. This is about the number. This is

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Speaker 1: a bet against overconfidence. Jets plus seven and a little

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Speaker 1: nibble on the money line. Since twenty eighteen, oho and

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Speaker 1: two road dogs eleven and fifteen straight up. That's pretty

268
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Speaker 1: good for oh and two road underdogs forty six percent ROI.

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Speaker 1: If you look at dogs of five or more points

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Speaker 1: in that span seven and nine, almost five hundred eighty

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Speaker 1: percent ROI. I remember four upsets of a touchdown and

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Speaker 1: more the last two years. Could this be another one?

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Speaker 1: Jets plus two eighty on the money line as part

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Speaker 1: of your bet as well. It's gross we're doing it.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, we just bet with torture here. I'm on the

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Speaker 3: Jets too. I like the seven. I'm probably gonna play

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Speaker 3: it as well. I'll give you two points. Number one

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Speaker 3: Tampa Bay does play Philly next week, which I definitely

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Speaker 3: think is a look ahead spot for them in a

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Speaker 3: game they're looking forward to. You know how much it matters.

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Speaker 3: It's over opinion. I think the second thing here is

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Speaker 3: what I like in my underdogs is people who don't

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Speaker 3: turn over the ball. That's how you stay in games.

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Speaker 3: Tyro Taylor last plays a starter in twenty twenty three

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Speaker 3: a one point one percent turnover worthy throat rate that year,

286
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Speaker 3: lowess in the NFL before that in twenty twenty one

287
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Speaker 3: two point seven percent, third lowest. I mean, he just

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Speaker 3: doesn't turn it over. He might turn it over three times,

289
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Speaker 3: but I'm going with the data here that tells me

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Speaker 3: that he's going to keep me in the game. So

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Speaker 3: I like the jokes as well. All right, this next

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Speaker 3: one to me, this is when you talk kitchen sync.

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Speaker 3: To me, this is the number one need a win

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Speaker 3: for an zero to two team. So what do you

295
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Speaker 3: like here with Jaggs? Texans.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm gonna take the Texans.

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Speaker 2: Gave me.

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Speaker 1: The Texans plus two did not work out for US

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Speaker 1: Monday night, but it looked like it was going to

300
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Speaker 1: right up until it didn't. That's kind of how the

301
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Speaker 1: Texans do things, right. They look good right up until

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Speaker 1: they don't in the second half. I still think the

303
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Speaker 1: wrong team is favored here. I still have this Texans

304
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Speaker 1: by two, not Texans underdog by two, and I think

305
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Speaker 1: this is again overreaction. The Jaguars do look pretty good

306
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Speaker 1: so far. I like what I see from Liam Cohen Campanelli,

307
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Speaker 1: the new defensive cour I feel good about where they're going.

308
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Speaker 1: But let's remember that's against Bryce Young and mostly Jake

309
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Speaker 1: Browning so far. So Jacksonville's defense looks pretty good top

310
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Speaker 1: twelve run and pass so far, but that's against Browning

311
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Speaker 1: and Bryce Young. Offensive line for Jacksonville, they've got three

312
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Speaker 1: guys righted top five of their position by PFF. That's

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Speaker 1: great because you've been playing Carolina and Cincinnati. But how

314
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Speaker 1: about Will Anderson, how about Daniel Hunter? How about these

315
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Speaker 1: Houston guys? Can you hold up against those guys too?

316
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Speaker 1: We'll see the Texans have dominated this division rivalry They've

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Speaker 1: won twelve out of the last fourteen, including seven straight

318
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Speaker 1: wins in Jacksonville, where this game is gonna be so

319
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Speaker 1: to me, this is a team I was high on

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Speaker 1: end of the year, the Texans. They've disappointed. The offense

321
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Speaker 1: I don't love yet. I do not love the offense.

322
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Speaker 1: If we did, they'd be favored. It's in this game.

323
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Speaker 1: So I still like the defense, still like the special teams.

324
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Speaker 1: Just can't move off the priors that quick to make

325
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Speaker 1: Jacksonville the favorite here and again kitchen sinks.

326
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Speaker 2: Like you said, we know the Chiefs have to.

327
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Speaker 1: Win, but we know the Chiefs will win against the Giants,

328
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Speaker 1: and they're playing two oh to two teams. But among

329
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Speaker 1: the eight kitchen sink teams, which the Chiefs and Giants

330
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Speaker 1: don't count since they're facing each other, You're right. I

331
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Speaker 1: think this is the team that's like, Man, we thought

332
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Speaker 1: we were a super Bowl team. We can't go oh

333
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Speaker 1: and three. We can't lose to Jacksonville.

334
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Speaker 3: Here.

335
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Speaker 1: This is my number three kitchen spot kitchen sink spot

336
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Speaker 1: for the week again, Division great spot for kitchen sink,

337
00:16:27,600 --> 00:16:31,840
Speaker 1: seventy five percent Division Jaguars one and one not scoring

338
00:16:31,880 --> 00:16:34,800
Speaker 1: a ton Houston was favor last week. That's good for

339
00:16:34,880 --> 00:16:37,760
Speaker 1: the trend. Jacksonville was an underdog last week, that's good

340
00:16:37,760 --> 00:16:41,760
Speaker 1: for the trend. Houston also is owned to ATS, So

341
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Speaker 1: week three rode underdogs that are owned two against the

342
00:16:45,240 --> 00:16:47,920
Speaker 1: spread sixty one percent in week three and if they're

343
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Speaker 1: coming off for lost by seven or more sixty four percent,

344
00:16:51,400 --> 00:16:55,040
Speaker 1: this is a trends bonanza for me. Houston twelve to one.

345
00:16:55,160 --> 00:16:58,880
Speaker 1: On trends. We fade Trevor Lawrence outdoors. We'd faded Lawrence

346
00:16:58,920 --> 00:17:02,480
Speaker 1: as a favorite. We also fade in week three home

347
00:17:02,520 --> 00:17:05,840
Speaker 1: favorites coming off a loss thirty four percent. ATS another

348
00:17:05,960 --> 00:17:08,919
Speaker 1: Jaguars spot phase. So it's not just kitchen sync. There

349
00:17:08,920 --> 00:17:12,440
Speaker 1: are other things here as well. Texans plus two, I

350
00:17:12,440 --> 00:17:14,520
Speaker 1: don't mind if you just prefer to play the money line.

351
00:17:14,520 --> 00:17:17,600
Speaker 1: I think that's around the same. I think the escalator

352
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Speaker 1: here is still giving Texans a chance in the Division

353
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Speaker 1: plus three hundred at fan duel, I still like.

354
00:17:24,400 --> 00:17:25,320
Speaker 2: Them in the Division.

355
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Speaker 1: One kitchen sink spot we're not playing is the other

356
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Speaker 1: two teams in the division. But Tennessee home against Indy.

357
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Speaker 1: If they get that one and the Texans get this one,

358
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Speaker 1: we're kind of right back at in near reset Houston

359
00:17:37,920 --> 00:17:40,600
Speaker 1: going forward. So I like the division odds at plus

360
00:17:40,680 --> 00:17:41,680
Speaker 1: three hundred as well.

361
00:17:42,359 --> 00:17:45,280
Speaker 3: Yeah Houston, I mean, just be kind of funny. Houston

362
00:17:45,359 --> 00:17:48,040
Speaker 3: owned three at home against Tennessee next week. I know

363
00:17:48,119 --> 00:17:49,840
Speaker 3: that goes against your back, but that is who they

364
00:17:49,840 --> 00:17:53,080
Speaker 3: play next week. I think there's a lot of negative

365
00:17:53,760 --> 00:17:56,280
Speaker 3: data and trends around both of these teams. When it

366
00:17:56,320 --> 00:17:58,280
Speaker 3: comes to Lawrence as a favorite and Stroud on the

367
00:17:58,320 --> 00:18:01,480
Speaker 3: road and toss up games, thing is really positive. I

368
00:18:01,560 --> 00:18:03,399
Speaker 3: think when you look, the only thing I'll say is

369
00:18:03,800 --> 00:18:06,639
Speaker 3: maybe we'll turn around after this game is played and

370
00:18:06,680 --> 00:18:09,520
Speaker 3: say maybe Houston first half, like maybe they come out

371
00:18:09,520 --> 00:18:11,440
Speaker 3: strong and then do their thing. Might be the play

372
00:18:11,480 --> 00:18:14,680
Speaker 3: here as an underdog, I do like this strad score

373
00:18:14,720 --> 00:18:17,960
Speaker 3: twenty one plus and all four starts against Jacksonville. So

374
00:18:18,000 --> 00:18:19,920
Speaker 3: as long as their defense shows up, I think they're

375
00:18:19,960 --> 00:18:21,879
Speaker 3: going to be in it no matter what. Here's the

376
00:18:21,920 --> 00:18:25,040
Speaker 3: fun one last year underdogs in AFC South games, we're

377
00:18:25,080 --> 00:18:28,679
Speaker 3: eleven and one against a spread. Pretty stupid. Is in

378
00:18:28,680 --> 00:18:31,560
Speaker 3: twenty nineteen and sixty three percent best of any division

379
00:18:31,760 --> 00:18:34,080
Speaker 3: is because the good teams in this division aren't good.

380
00:18:34,680 --> 00:18:36,440
Speaker 3: And I think it's just that's what you find week

381
00:18:36,440 --> 00:18:41,480
Speaker 3: to week? All right, next game here Bears and Cowboys. Honestly,

382
00:18:42,440 --> 00:18:44,679
Speaker 3: this is the definition of a tape gear pick, Like

383
00:18:44,720 --> 00:18:46,600
Speaker 3: I feel like you can find an angle kind of

384
00:18:46,600 --> 00:18:49,320
Speaker 3: on both sides. But my question to you, before you

385
00:18:49,359 --> 00:18:51,919
Speaker 3: even give your answers, how do you even think Chicago's

386
00:18:51,920 --> 00:18:54,760
Speaker 3: gonna stop Dak based off what you've seen? So kind

387
00:18:54,760 --> 00:18:55,280
Speaker 3: of go into.

388
00:18:55,200 --> 00:18:56,560
Speaker 2: It and how do I you know?

389
00:18:56,640 --> 00:18:59,119
Speaker 1: I'm so I'm taking the Bears Bears plus one a

390
00:18:59,200 --> 00:19:01,960
Speaker 1: half against the Boys at DraftKings. How do I bet

391
00:19:02,000 --> 00:19:04,040
Speaker 1: the Bears again after what they have done to me

392
00:19:04,160 --> 00:19:07,560
Speaker 1: the last two weeks? This to me, I'll bet the

393
00:19:07,600 --> 00:19:10,560
Speaker 1: Panthers and the Jets anytime this week. The Bears are

394
00:19:10,560 --> 00:19:13,680
Speaker 1: the one that make me personally the sickest after all

395
00:19:13,800 --> 00:19:17,800
Speaker 1: my Ben Johnson stock. Look, this is not Bears Island.

396
00:19:18,200 --> 00:19:20,280
Speaker 1: I have in my article this week on the zero

397
00:19:20,280 --> 00:19:22,080
Speaker 1: to two teams. I looked at all these teams and

398
00:19:22,160 --> 00:19:23,120
Speaker 1: playoff futures.

399
00:19:23,560 --> 00:19:24,000
Speaker 2: I'm out.

400
00:19:24,080 --> 00:19:26,919
Speaker 1: I have abandoned Bears Island. I don't believe in this

401
00:19:27,000 --> 00:19:30,399
Speaker 1: team long term this season, but that doesn't mean we

402
00:19:30,440 --> 00:19:32,680
Speaker 1: can't bet week to week or bet the spot. So

403
00:19:32,760 --> 00:19:36,439
Speaker 1: that is what this is. I downgraded Chicago across the

404
00:19:36,480 --> 00:19:39,440
Speaker 1: board to downgrade them. At running back, they cannot run

405
00:19:39,480 --> 00:19:41,200
Speaker 1: the ball to save their lives right now.

406
00:19:41,520 --> 00:19:41,959
Speaker 2: A little bit.

407
00:19:42,000 --> 00:19:45,680
Speaker 1: At offensive line. I download downgraded at linebacker and corner.

408
00:19:46,080 --> 00:19:49,840
Speaker 1: Jalen Johnson is out indefinitely. Kyler Gordon the slot corner

409
00:19:49,960 --> 00:19:51,000
Speaker 1: also questionable.

410
00:19:51,080 --> 00:19:51,600
Speaker 2: Still TJ.

411
00:19:51,720 --> 00:19:55,680
Speaker 1: Edwards a linebacker questionable. We've seen the last couple of weeks.

412
00:19:56,040 --> 00:19:58,800
Speaker 1: The Bears have kind of hung around or looked good

413
00:19:58,840 --> 00:20:01,320
Speaker 1: for a while, and then the injuries start and then

414
00:20:01,359 --> 00:20:04,920
Speaker 1: the defense falls apart. I factored all those things in

415
00:20:05,359 --> 00:20:08,520
Speaker 1: downgrading the Bear as a whole heap. I still make

416
00:20:08,560 --> 00:20:11,800
Speaker 1: this in Chicago minus four, I still have the Bear

417
00:20:11,920 --> 00:20:13,800
Speaker 1: is the clear favorite on the other side of the

418
00:20:13,840 --> 00:20:18,720
Speaker 1: key number Like it feels terrible Chicago, but three quarters

419
00:20:18,760 --> 00:20:23,399
Speaker 1: down against Minnesota, seventeen to six, Chicago leads. Then it

420
00:20:23,520 --> 00:20:27,920
Speaker 1: went very bad last week against the Lions, seven point

421
00:20:27,960 --> 00:20:31,639
Speaker 1: game until almost halftime. Then Tesla has the crazy catch.

422
00:20:31,880 --> 00:20:33,760
Speaker 1: They decide to rule them in bounds. They decide to

423
00:20:33,840 --> 00:20:36,960
Speaker 1: keep the cl like weird stuff happens. Lions score two

424
00:20:37,040 --> 00:20:40,320
Speaker 1: seconds so the half and then it just they you know,

425
00:20:40,359 --> 00:20:44,119
Speaker 1: the Lions put their foot to the pedal and the

426
00:20:44,160 --> 00:20:46,080
Speaker 1: Bears let go of the rope, and I think both

427
00:20:46,119 --> 00:20:48,720
Speaker 1: games we've seen them kind of let go the string

428
00:20:48,840 --> 00:20:52,560
Speaker 1: late as guys got hurt in particular, And I don't

429
00:20:52,600 --> 00:20:56,159
Speaker 1: love the Bear's defense. Dennis Allen, my man, you're supposed

430
00:20:56,160 --> 00:20:58,800
Speaker 1: to be part of the package deal. It's been terrible.

431
00:20:59,280 --> 00:21:03,400
Speaker 1: I still think Dallas defense might even be worse than

432
00:21:03,480 --> 00:21:06,119
Speaker 1: what Chicago's look like. We'll come back to that with

433
00:21:06,160 --> 00:21:10,280
Speaker 1: a prop later. And of course, for all Ben Johnson's

434
00:21:10,400 --> 00:21:14,360
Speaker 1: failure so far, it's still Ben Johnson versus Brian Schottenheimer.

435
00:21:14,400 --> 00:21:16,640
Speaker 1: And based on as high as I was on one

436
00:21:16,640 --> 00:21:18,640
Speaker 1: coaching staff as low as I was on the other,

437
00:21:18,800 --> 00:21:22,040
Speaker 1: literally my lowest ranked coaching staff for Dallas, that still

438
00:21:22,119 --> 00:21:24,920
Speaker 1: is a pretty big spot for me. And in the end,

439
00:21:25,000 --> 00:21:28,359
Speaker 1: this is a begrudging Bears pick because the Bears are

440
00:21:28,359 --> 00:21:31,199
Speaker 1: my number two rated kitchen sink spot. Nothing to do

441
00:21:31,320 --> 00:21:33,840
Speaker 1: with the teams. When I'm ranking these are fully how

442
00:21:33,840 --> 00:21:37,840
Speaker 1: do the trends look sixty three percent ats kinjin sink

443
00:21:37,880 --> 00:21:41,480
Speaker 1: since twenty ten, Bears are public sixty eight percent for that,

444
00:21:42,040 --> 00:21:44,879
Speaker 1: the Cowboys are one and one seventy percent ATS for that,

445
00:21:45,320 --> 00:21:49,320
Speaker 1: and then the Bears hit my two best kitchen sink trends,

446
00:21:49,680 --> 00:21:53,080
Speaker 1: which is they have scored at least seventeen points both games.

447
00:21:53,280 --> 00:21:53,720
Speaker 2: That's good.

448
00:21:53,760 --> 00:21:56,080
Speaker 1: We're gonna score some points, especially in this game. There

449
00:21:56,119 --> 00:21:59,640
Speaker 1: are gonna be points here, seventy seven percent ats there,

450
00:22:00,080 --> 00:22:02,879
Speaker 1: and like the Jets, they're coming off a twenty plus

451
00:22:02,880 --> 00:22:06,840
Speaker 1: point loss. So this is again the ultimate Bilo spot

452
00:22:07,119 --> 00:22:09,679
Speaker 1: fifteen and two of their eighty eight percent ats. I

453
00:22:09,680 --> 00:22:12,960
Speaker 1: don't know how they stop Dak. I'm hoping that Ben

454
00:22:13,040 --> 00:22:15,879
Speaker 1: Johnson and Caleb Williams, so I think, honestly is playing

455
00:22:16,400 --> 00:22:18,720
Speaker 1: relatively well, better than people are giving credit for. I

456
00:22:18,760 --> 00:22:21,000
Speaker 1: think it's the run game, some of the other stuff.

457
00:22:21,000 --> 00:22:23,880
Speaker 1: The defense beling so bad. That has been the problem.

458
00:22:23,920 --> 00:22:27,520
Speaker 1: But I'm just hoping that Bears do enough to match.

459
00:22:27,960 --> 00:22:30,720
Speaker 1: And this is what Week three is about. It's disgusting

460
00:22:30,760 --> 00:22:33,159
Speaker 1: bets that make you feel sick to your stomach. Is

461
00:22:33,160 --> 00:22:37,040
Speaker 1: the ultimate Bilo spots. Not it doubled down on the Bears.

462
00:22:37,080 --> 00:22:40,720
Speaker 1: No escalators, no playoffs or division bets. Is just a

463
00:22:40,760 --> 00:22:43,440
Speaker 1: home underdog against an opponent that's really not that great.

464
00:22:43,720 --> 00:22:44,600
Speaker 2: Bears plus two.

465
00:22:45,119 --> 00:22:47,040
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's a pick them game. You can get a

466
00:22:47,040 --> 00:22:49,159
Speaker 3: point here either way. I think the biggest issue for

467
00:22:49,240 --> 00:22:53,600
Speaker 3: Chicago seven touchdowns passing touchdowns allowed five in the second half,

468
00:22:54,040 --> 00:22:56,359
Speaker 3: so seems to me like they're getting a little tired

469
00:22:56,400 --> 00:22:59,480
Speaker 3: team to take an advantage potentially nine point nine yards

470
00:22:59,480 --> 00:23:02,040
Speaker 3: per attempt. Just feel stupid, except for the fact that

471
00:23:02,080 --> 00:23:05,800
Speaker 3: New England's allowing ten point three. So after that you

472
00:23:05,880 --> 00:23:08,520
Speaker 3: understand the concept here. And so, I mean, the only

473
00:23:08,720 --> 00:23:10,840
Speaker 3: thing I could say is Dallas look ahead potentially like

474
00:23:10,880 --> 00:23:13,200
Speaker 3: they got Green Bay on Sunday night football at home

475
00:23:13,280 --> 00:23:13,720
Speaker 3: next week.

476
00:23:13,960 --> 00:23:16,120
Speaker 1: Pretty big games game, yeah.

477
00:23:15,920 --> 00:23:18,080
Speaker 3: The Michael Parsons game, Like there's a lot riding on

478
00:23:18,119 --> 00:23:20,000
Speaker 3: that game, and that is next week. You know, I

479
00:23:20,040 --> 00:23:22,840
Speaker 3: talked look ahead before with Tampa Bay, but this one's

480
00:23:22,880 --> 00:23:25,520
Speaker 3: just as big, so that might be something to day.

481
00:23:25,520 --> 00:23:27,280
Speaker 1: I missed book. I said, Bears plus two. I think

482
00:23:27,320 --> 00:23:28,840
Speaker 1: the best number out there is a plus one and

483
00:23:28,840 --> 00:23:31,400
Speaker 1: a half. But again, yeah, you know it's around that number.

484
00:23:31,480 --> 00:23:33,919
Speaker 1: Just shop round, use the action app and get the

485
00:23:33,920 --> 00:23:35,200
Speaker 1: best number you can find.

486
00:23:36,000 --> 00:23:38,639
Speaker 3: All right, last best bet before we get into our

487
00:23:38,680 --> 00:23:41,640
Speaker 3: lightning round. So I think this game is actually kind

488
00:23:41,640 --> 00:23:44,040
Speaker 3: of fascinating because we see it in gambling every year.

489
00:23:44,080 --> 00:23:46,520
Speaker 3: But you've got green Bay laying like eight and a

490
00:23:46,520 --> 00:23:51,040
Speaker 3: half nine in Cleveland this week, and you kind of

491
00:23:51,119 --> 00:23:54,399
Speaker 3: understand the circumstances around both teams, but you seem to

492
00:23:54,520 --> 00:23:55,960
Speaker 3: like the total. So what did you do there?

493
00:23:56,520 --> 00:23:58,840
Speaker 1: Yeah, so the Browns are the kitchen sing side here.

494
00:23:58,840 --> 00:24:01,199
Speaker 1: This would be my number five. I have kitchen sink spots,

495
00:24:01,200 --> 00:24:03,320
Speaker 1: so we bet my top four and that's where I'm

496
00:24:03,400 --> 00:24:05,879
Speaker 1: cutting us off here. Instead, I'm gonna go with the under,

497
00:24:05,960 --> 00:24:08,680
Speaker 1: so under forty one and a half. And I think

498
00:24:08,760 --> 00:24:11,800
Speaker 1: really that is sort of leaning into the kitchen sink

499
00:24:11,880 --> 00:24:13,920
Speaker 1: idea here, because I think going under is the only

500
00:24:13,960 --> 00:24:16,280
Speaker 1: way the Browns hang around in this game. We know

501
00:24:16,280 --> 00:24:19,000
Speaker 1: about the Packers defense. We just talked about Micah Parsons.

502
00:24:19,400 --> 00:24:20,280
Speaker 1: Flaco's in trouble.

503
00:24:20,359 --> 00:24:20,560
Speaker 3: Man.

504
00:24:20,640 --> 00:24:23,000
Speaker 2: I don't feel great for Flaco with the.

505
00:24:22,880 --> 00:24:25,320
Speaker 1: Line that they've got protecting against as good as the

506
00:24:25,359 --> 00:24:28,760
Speaker 1: Packers defense has been, But the Browns defense been pretty

507
00:24:28,800 --> 00:24:31,639
Speaker 1: good too. I did not expect them to be this good.

508
00:24:32,040 --> 00:24:36,480
Speaker 1: But the rookies have been great upfront. Graham and Carson

509
00:24:36,480 --> 00:24:39,080
Speaker 1: Schwessinger have been great right out of the gates. They're

510
00:24:39,160 --> 00:24:42,320
Speaker 1: top ten by Dvoway. Not much data there, but pretty good.

511
00:24:42,440 --> 00:24:45,560
Speaker 1: Number one run defense so far, number three success rate.

512
00:24:45,920 --> 00:24:49,080
Speaker 1: They've allowed the seventh fewest explosives. I think that's very

513
00:24:49,119 --> 00:24:52,520
Speaker 1: important in this particular matchup. The Packers can kind of

514
00:24:52,600 --> 00:24:55,000
Speaker 1: run hot and cold what we've seen so far. Jordan

515
00:24:55,040 --> 00:24:57,080
Speaker 1: loves bombing down the field and I love it. It's

516
00:24:57,080 --> 00:24:59,320
Speaker 1: a lot of fun to watch just as a neutral

517
00:24:59,760 --> 00:25:03,440
Speaker 1: by But the Packers they're fourth and explosives. That means

518
00:25:03,440 --> 00:25:05,720
Speaker 1: when those hit are great. But if the Browns can

519
00:25:06,080 --> 00:25:09,359
Speaker 1: hopefully limit explosives, you can kind of go three and

520
00:25:09,400 --> 00:25:11,840
Speaker 1: out real quick on some of those drives. And if

521
00:25:11,920 --> 00:25:14,879
Speaker 1: the run game's not there, you're not moving the ball suddenly,

522
00:25:15,080 --> 00:25:17,520
Speaker 1: you know, just kind of run sure an offense for

523
00:25:17,520 --> 00:25:20,480
Speaker 1: a while. So the main thing the kitchen sink trends

524
00:25:20,640 --> 00:25:24,080
Speaker 1: like about Cleveland is just the general lower scoring nature

525
00:25:24,160 --> 00:25:27,000
Speaker 1: of the game here. It's a windy looking game, looks

526
00:25:27,040 --> 00:25:29,320
Speaker 1: like ten nine hour wins. Windy under is the last

527
00:25:29,359 --> 00:25:32,360
Speaker 1: four seasons, sixty two percent to the under. It's our

528
00:25:32,359 --> 00:25:35,119
Speaker 1: lowest total on the board, about the same as the

529
00:25:35,160 --> 00:25:38,600
Speaker 1: Saint Seahawks. That's another kitchen sink one. Packers, as good

530
00:25:38,600 --> 00:25:40,720
Speaker 1: as they've been, I've only scored twenty seven both games,

531
00:25:40,720 --> 00:25:43,600
Speaker 1: so that's not a huge number. And then another trend

532
00:25:43,640 --> 00:25:47,560
Speaker 1: for you, totals that are between thirty nine and forty

533
00:25:47,560 --> 00:25:50,920
Speaker 1: four that drop at least a point, Usually that tells

534
00:25:51,000 --> 00:25:53,600
Speaker 1: us that that is being bet in the right direction.

535
00:25:54,080 --> 00:25:56,840
Speaker 1: Fifty six percent to the under in that spot. So

536
00:25:56,920 --> 00:26:00,720
Speaker 1: I like Packers Browns under forty one half. That one

537
00:26:00,800 --> 00:26:02,560
Speaker 1: is dropping a bit, so I'd go ahead and grab

538
00:26:02,600 --> 00:26:04,760
Speaker 1: it now. And I'll say this too. One other thing

539
00:26:04,800 --> 00:26:07,800
Speaker 1: about the Kitchen Saying spot. I looked at a Packers

540
00:26:07,840 --> 00:26:10,959
Speaker 1: Seahawks teaser. I mentioned both of those games. You basically

541
00:26:11,000 --> 00:26:13,199
Speaker 1: get those both below the key number. Just just finish

542
00:26:13,200 --> 00:26:15,760
Speaker 1: and win the you know, win the game. I'm gonna

543
00:26:15,760 --> 00:26:19,320
Speaker 1: stay away. Kitchen Sync says, these big upsets can strike

544
00:26:19,320 --> 00:26:21,760
Speaker 1: where you least expect them to. I don't know if

545
00:26:21,760 --> 00:26:24,720
Speaker 1: that's the Browns or the Saints, but I'm gonna stay away.

546
00:26:24,760 --> 00:26:26,920
Speaker 1: What I really want to keep an eye on the

547
00:26:26,920 --> 00:26:29,600
Speaker 1: app for this because we don't have lines popped yet.

548
00:26:29,840 --> 00:26:32,800
Speaker 1: But I want Brown's running back receptions. That's what I

549
00:26:32,880 --> 00:26:37,080
Speaker 1: want here, Probably some escalators on Jerome Ford and Quinshawn Judkins.

550
00:26:37,160 --> 00:26:40,600
Speaker 1: The rookie Packers play heavy zone. They've given up huge

551
00:26:40,680 --> 00:26:43,960
Speaker 1: running back receptions this year and last year. Brown's top

552
00:26:43,960 --> 00:26:46,600
Speaker 1: five running back target rate. That would have been my

553
00:26:46,680 --> 00:26:50,440
Speaker 1: top prop on the podcast today, But no lines yet,

554
00:26:50,440 --> 00:26:52,200
Speaker 1: I think as we're kind of waiting to see who

555
00:26:52,240 --> 00:26:55,040
Speaker 1: maybe is announced as the running back starter, so keep

556
00:26:55,080 --> 00:26:57,640
Speaker 1: an eye. Those will probably hit the app or maybe

557
00:26:57,640 --> 00:26:59,800
Speaker 1: the written version of this article before.

558
00:27:00,240 --> 00:27:03,359
Speaker 3: Yeah, so this is down a full point since open

559
00:27:03,400 --> 00:27:05,320
Speaker 3: a forty two and a half look ahead was forty

560
00:27:05,320 --> 00:27:08,440
Speaker 3: three and a half. But I think and I looked

561
00:27:08,440 --> 00:27:11,520
Speaker 3: this up because I was looking at games since twenty

562
00:27:11,560 --> 00:27:14,880
Speaker 3: twenty three to land on forty forty one and forty two.

563
00:27:15,040 --> 00:27:18,680
Speaker 3: So forty has been sixteen, forty one has been twenty six,

564
00:27:19,080 --> 00:27:22,320
Speaker 3: forty two has been fourteen, So I think the forty

565
00:27:22,359 --> 00:27:24,800
Speaker 3: one and a half on the under is very vital

566
00:27:24,960 --> 00:27:27,000
Speaker 3: and making sure that you get that number just to

567
00:27:27,040 --> 00:27:29,639
Speaker 3: be clear on how many times it does fall in

568
00:27:29,680 --> 00:27:32,720
Speaker 3: that range, especially recently. And also i'll give you one

569
00:27:32,760 --> 00:27:35,879
Speaker 3: more Cleveland home games twenty two twelve and one to

570
00:27:35,960 --> 00:27:39,280
Speaker 3: the under since twenty twenty one, so what you see

571
00:27:39,280 --> 00:27:42,720
Speaker 3: on the field has translated into the results, all right,

572
00:27:43,200 --> 00:27:45,480
Speaker 3: Lightning round time fund.

573
00:27:46,040 --> 00:27:49,520
Speaker 1: The thunder, lightning round, lightning and the thunder.

574
00:27:50,280 --> 00:27:55,520
Speaker 3: So you're starting as off with man Vikings Bengals you.

575
00:27:55,520 --> 00:27:57,639
Speaker 3: You know you're forever. Everyone who doesn't know you're a

576
00:27:57,720 --> 00:28:00,480
Speaker 3: Vikings fan you're seeing and you're seem to be a

577
00:28:00,480 --> 00:28:02,800
Speaker 3: Carson Wentz lover. So you do love Carson Wentz. This

578
00:28:02,800 --> 00:28:05,120
Speaker 3: feels like a great marriage. So what are you doing

579
00:28:05,119 --> 00:28:05,560
Speaker 3: in this game?

580
00:28:06,200 --> 00:28:06,400
Speaker 2: Yeah?

581
00:28:06,560 --> 00:28:09,480
Speaker 1: Man, I'll be honest, I've been waiting for Carson Wentz

582
00:28:09,480 --> 00:28:11,560
Speaker 1: to start a Vikings game for about a decade.

583
00:28:11,600 --> 00:28:11,760
Speaker 3: Now.

584
00:28:11,760 --> 00:28:13,000
Speaker 2: I follow this guy since.

585
00:28:12,880 --> 00:28:16,200
Speaker 1: High school in Bismarck, North Dakota, back at NBSU leading

586
00:28:16,240 --> 00:28:19,639
Speaker 1: the Bison to some championships. There's no way I'm not

587
00:28:19,720 --> 00:28:22,840
Speaker 1: betting on Carson Wentz finally playing a game for the Vikings.

588
00:28:23,200 --> 00:28:26,760
Speaker 1: And this actually not a kitchen sink spot. This is

589
00:28:26,840 --> 00:28:29,480
Speaker 1: my biggest spread difference of the week, So give me

590
00:28:29,520 --> 00:28:31,600
Speaker 1: the Vikings. There is a minus two and a half

591
00:28:31,680 --> 00:28:34,400
Speaker 1: out there at ESPN bet. I'll grab that if you can. Otherwise,

592
00:28:34,480 --> 00:28:38,360
Speaker 1: minus three even odds at some books. Carson Wentz Jake

593
00:28:38,440 --> 00:28:40,560
Speaker 1: Browning just the game we all hope for here right

594
00:28:41,440 --> 00:28:44,200
Speaker 1: This to me is all about how you evaluate those

595
00:28:44,200 --> 00:28:46,120
Speaker 1: two quarterbacks and what it does to your power rating

596
00:28:46,120 --> 00:28:48,520
Speaker 1: on the team. I don't want to hear about how

597
00:28:48,560 --> 00:28:50,880
Speaker 1: good Jake Browning is or how he's maybe not even

598
00:28:50,920 --> 00:28:53,600
Speaker 1: a much of a downgrade from Joe Burrow. This is ridiculous.

599
00:28:53,680 --> 00:28:56,560
Speaker 1: Joe Burrow is a top four quarterback in the NFL.

600
00:28:56,960 --> 00:28:59,840
Speaker 1: In a group with Lamar and Mahomes and Josh Allen,

601
00:29:00,040 --> 00:29:02,520
Speaker 1: one of those guys went out, we would just declare

602
00:29:02,560 --> 00:29:04,640
Speaker 1: the season over for those teams. So why are we

603
00:29:04,680 --> 00:29:07,240
Speaker 1: saying this is like, eh, maybe still a five hundred

604
00:29:07,240 --> 00:29:11,120
Speaker 1: Bengals team. They'll just hang around. Okay, because seven games

605
00:29:11,160 --> 00:29:13,720
Speaker 1: we got from Browning before? How much credit are we

606
00:29:13,760 --> 00:29:16,760
Speaker 1: gonna get for those seven games? Undrafted guy Jake Browning

607
00:29:17,080 --> 00:29:20,479
Speaker 1: has seven starts with training wheels. Basically he gets two

608
00:29:20,560 --> 00:29:23,480
Speaker 1: great receivers, which admittedly he gets them again here, but

609
00:29:23,560 --> 00:29:27,560
Speaker 1: in those seven starts, seven interceptions, twenty one sacks. It's

610
00:29:27,600 --> 00:29:29,880
Speaker 1: not great and we saw both of those mistakes come

611
00:29:29,920 --> 00:29:30,640
Speaker 1: out last week.

612
00:29:30,840 --> 00:29:32,200
Speaker 2: He goes four and three.

613
00:29:32,240 --> 00:29:36,760
Speaker 1: Congratulations Here the quarterbacks he beat CJ Bethard Gardner, Minshew,

614
00:29:37,040 --> 00:29:42,320
Speaker 1: Nick Mullins, and Jeff Driscoll. So backup quarterbacks facing backup quarterbacks. Now, look,

615
00:29:42,760 --> 00:29:45,479
Speaker 1: I hear you right now, listener at home, add Carson

616
00:29:45,480 --> 00:29:46,920
Speaker 1: Wentz to the list. He's not even better than the

617
00:29:46,960 --> 00:29:47,720
Speaker 1: rest of those guys.

618
00:29:47,720 --> 00:29:48,840
Speaker 2: I get it. I understand.

619
00:29:49,400 --> 00:29:53,480
Speaker 1: I think Wentz legit is an upgrade on JJ McCarthy.

620
00:29:53,520 --> 00:29:57,280
Speaker 1: The way McCarthy has been playing so far. I'll be honest.

621
00:29:57,800 --> 00:30:01,520
Speaker 1: Monday and Morning report. McCarthy ankle maybe out for a

622
00:30:01,520 --> 00:30:04,040
Speaker 1: few weeks. The Vikings have this game and then two

623
00:30:04,120 --> 00:30:08,960
Speaker 1: games overseas in a bye week. That screams convenient injury

624
00:30:09,000 --> 00:30:11,280
Speaker 1: to me. Give our guy a little chance to catch

625
00:30:11,320 --> 00:30:14,000
Speaker 1: his breath. Our line has not been great. We don't

626
00:30:14,000 --> 00:30:16,040
Speaker 1: want to just like totally lose you. We don't want

627
00:30:16,040 --> 00:30:18,240
Speaker 1: to lose the locker room justin. Jefferson would like a

628
00:30:18,280 --> 00:30:20,920
Speaker 1: real quarterback to throw them some balls. Hey, Carson, why

629
00:30:20,920 --> 00:30:24,560
Speaker 1: don't you play a few games for McCarthy. Carson can

630
00:30:24,600 --> 00:30:26,880
Speaker 1: make some plays with his legs. He's gonna give the

631
00:30:26,920 --> 00:30:30,840
Speaker 1: receivers a chance. I like a backup quarterback that will

632
00:30:30,880 --> 00:30:33,160
Speaker 1: will chuck it up a little bit sometimes more of

633
00:30:33,160 --> 00:30:36,640
Speaker 1: a case Keenum. Well, honestly, both quarterbacks here kind of

634
00:30:36,640 --> 00:30:39,320
Speaker 1: give their guys a chance. Jefferson's gonna get a few

635
00:30:39,320 --> 00:30:42,920
Speaker 1: more chances here. I have the Vikings up half a

636
00:30:42,960 --> 00:30:46,600
Speaker 1: point with Carson Wentz from McCarthy, have the Bengals down

637
00:30:46,880 --> 00:30:49,320
Speaker 1: four or five points at least from Burrow. I think

638
00:30:49,360 --> 00:30:52,360
Speaker 1: it's a huge swing and not been adjusted enough in

639
00:30:52,400 --> 00:30:56,280
Speaker 1: the books. Misso's defense has been bad, mostly the run deep.

640
00:30:56,640 --> 00:30:59,280
Speaker 1: Cincinnati is not gonna hurt you that way. The offensive

641
00:30:59,320 --> 00:31:02,560
Speaker 1: line has been terrible. Rough first start for Browning on

642
00:31:02,600 --> 00:31:06,080
Speaker 1: the road in Minnesota. In that sense, Minnesota's line has

643
00:31:06,120 --> 00:31:09,160
Speaker 1: not been good, maybe as bad as Cincinnatis. I'd love

644
00:31:09,200 --> 00:31:11,200
Speaker 1: to see Christian Daris out there. I'd love to see

645
00:31:11,200 --> 00:31:14,200
Speaker 1: that he is practicing a little bit this week the

646
00:31:14,280 --> 00:31:17,440
Speaker 1: left tackle. But the Bengals defensive line has not been

647
00:31:17,480 --> 00:31:19,960
Speaker 1: that great. If you can block Trey Hendrickson, you can

648
00:31:20,000 --> 00:31:24,440
Speaker 1: probably get home there. I still make this Vikings over

649
00:31:24,640 --> 00:31:27,520
Speaker 1: seven points. So if you get this at the three

650
00:31:27,600 --> 00:31:30,000
Speaker 1: or even below the three, I still think it's a

651
00:31:30,000 --> 00:31:33,200
Speaker 1: good spot. Don't forget koc has won thirty four games

652
00:31:33,200 --> 00:31:36,240
Speaker 1: the last three seasons. Over half of those games were

653
00:31:36,240 --> 00:31:38,840
Speaker 1: started by the backup quarterback. This is what the team

654
00:31:38,920 --> 00:31:41,920
Speaker 1: knows how to do. This to me, is still a

655
00:31:41,920 --> 00:31:45,920
Speaker 1: playoff contending Vikings team against what is a bottom ten

656
00:31:45,960 --> 00:31:48,360
Speaker 1: Bengals team now that they have Browning in the lineup

657
00:31:48,400 --> 00:31:52,120
Speaker 1: with the bad defense, bad coaches, bad line. So give

658
00:31:52,160 --> 00:31:54,280
Speaker 1: me the Vikings minus two and a half if you can,

659
00:31:54,320 --> 00:31:56,160
Speaker 1: minus three if you need it. And I got the

660
00:31:56,200 --> 00:31:59,320
Speaker 1: Carson Wentz jersey on today, No Aj Brown, this is

661
00:31:59,360 --> 00:32:02,080
Speaker 1: the real Carson Wentz. I didn't get the Vikings yet,

662
00:32:02,080 --> 00:32:04,600
Speaker 1: but we'll see. I know you'll love the stat Evan.

663
00:32:04,640 --> 00:32:07,560
Speaker 1: I'm sure you've seen it as well. Carson will make

664
00:32:07,600 --> 00:32:11,160
Speaker 1: his sixth start in six seasons for six different teams.

665
00:32:11,520 --> 00:32:15,959
Speaker 1: First guy in history to do that. Eagles, Colts, Commanders, Rams, Chiefs,

666
00:32:15,960 --> 00:32:18,960
Speaker 1: and now the Vikings, his boyhood team. Miss me with

667
00:32:19,040 --> 00:32:21,480
Speaker 1: the Carson Wentz bad numbers. In these recent games, he's

668
00:32:21,480 --> 00:32:24,640
Speaker 1: playing like Week eighteen with backups. Here's his top receiver

669
00:32:24,840 --> 00:32:29,600
Speaker 1: his last three games, Nico Remigio for the Chiefs, Davis

670
00:32:29,680 --> 00:32:33,080
Speaker 1: Allen for the Rams, and Logan Thomas for Washington. All right,

671
00:32:33,200 --> 00:32:36,160
Speaker 1: may introduce you to Justin Jefferson. This is a different

672
00:32:36,200 --> 00:32:38,760
Speaker 1: animal entirely, and a little Wentz prop.

673
00:32:39,200 --> 00:32:40,680
Speaker 2: I don't blame you if you don't want to tail.

674
00:32:40,760 --> 00:32:43,280
Speaker 2: I'm the Wentz guy. There's no way I'm not playing this.

675
00:32:43,920 --> 00:32:47,040
Speaker 1: Carson loves to call his own number at the goal line.

676
00:32:47,240 --> 00:32:50,080
Speaker 1: That has been the staple time and again at NDSU.

677
00:32:50,120 --> 00:32:52,600
Speaker 1: We've seen it in the NFL. He loves the QB

678
00:32:52,720 --> 00:32:57,560
Speaker 1: draw five to one anytime touchdown at DraftKings. And because

679
00:32:57,600 --> 00:33:00,719
Speaker 1: I'm a sucker for the Cinderella story, a little nibble

680
00:33:01,280 --> 00:33:05,760
Speaker 1: Carson Wentz last touchdown with the Vikings win the walk

681
00:33:05,880 --> 00:33:08,840
Speaker 1: off thirty seven to one. This is like a you know,

682
00:33:09,000 --> 00:33:12,080
Speaker 1: a point one unit. But Carson, come on, man, we've

683
00:33:12,120 --> 00:33:14,840
Speaker 1: been waiting for a rapper. This is his team. Let's

684
00:33:14,840 --> 00:33:15,920
Speaker 1: see him have some fun.

685
00:33:16,320 --> 00:33:16,520
Speaker 2: Yeah.

686
00:33:16,560 --> 00:33:18,760
Speaker 3: My first thought here when I looked at this matchup,

687
00:33:18,880 --> 00:33:21,560
Speaker 3: especially when I saw the total dropping, was maybe the over.

688
00:33:21,960 --> 00:33:23,800
Speaker 3: But it hasn't got It's gotten to forty two and

689
00:33:23,840 --> 00:33:25,200
Speaker 3: a half. And I kind of wanted to see a

690
00:33:25,240 --> 00:33:27,360
Speaker 3: dip a tiny bit more because I just see this

691
00:33:27,440 --> 00:33:30,800
Speaker 3: game being kind of chaotic when you've got Jake Browning

692
00:33:30,840 --> 00:33:33,840
Speaker 3: with the three interceptions last week, nine point four percent

693
00:33:33,880 --> 00:33:38,040
Speaker 3: turnover worthy thrower, which almost seems impossible. And then I

694
00:33:38,040 --> 00:33:41,000
Speaker 3: think the biggest question for Wentz is pressure. So the

695
00:33:41,120 --> 00:33:43,200
Speaker 3: last time we saw him get more than one start,

696
00:33:43,200 --> 00:33:46,600
Speaker 3: it was twenty twenty two. In that year, his completion

697
00:33:46,720 --> 00:33:49,840
Speaker 3: percentage seventy one percent went not blitz sixty seven percent

698
00:33:49,840 --> 00:33:52,400
Speaker 3: in a clean pocket went down to fifty nine percent

699
00:33:52,440 --> 00:33:55,120
Speaker 3: on a blitz and forty nine percent under pressure. So

700
00:33:55,240 --> 00:33:58,360
Speaker 3: I think that is real question here for Cincinnati's defense,

701
00:33:58,640 --> 00:34:00,480
Speaker 3: and I don't necessarily think they can do it. So

702
00:34:00,680 --> 00:34:02,960
Speaker 3: that's why I think your BET's fine. I just have

703
00:34:03,080 --> 00:34:05,320
Speaker 3: no idea what's going to happen in this game, and

704
00:34:05,440 --> 00:34:07,400
Speaker 3: I want to de over because I see chaos. But

705
00:34:07,880 --> 00:34:10,360
Speaker 3: I completely see your angle. All right, let's go to

706
00:34:10,400 --> 00:34:15,120
Speaker 3: props now, and so this we're already on the jets

707
00:34:15,160 --> 00:34:17,600
Speaker 3: in this game. But I think this prop has some

708
00:34:17,640 --> 00:34:19,760
Speaker 3: good correlations. So what are you doing with Baker?

709
00:34:20,120 --> 00:34:22,640
Speaker 1: Yeah, speaking of turnover worthy he plays, Let's go to

710
00:34:22,680 --> 00:34:25,400
Speaker 1: Baker Mayfield. I want to play Baker to get an interception.

711
00:34:25,560 --> 00:34:28,800
Speaker 1: So Baker is so far two late game comebacks, no interception.

712
00:34:28,960 --> 00:34:31,520
Speaker 1: Seems great except for the fact that he has six

713
00:34:31,600 --> 00:34:34,480
Speaker 1: turnover worthy plays, which is tied with bow Nickx for

714
00:34:34,560 --> 00:34:36,920
Speaker 1: most in the NFL. Bonix has looked awful if you've

715
00:34:36,920 --> 00:34:39,560
Speaker 1: been watching him so far, there's only six guys in

716
00:34:39,560 --> 00:34:42,320
Speaker 1: the NFL with even half that many turnover worthy he plays.

717
00:34:42,520 --> 00:34:45,040
Speaker 2: So it's Baker, bo Tua.

718
00:34:44,920 --> 00:34:47,640
Speaker 1: Gino who looked terrible on Monday Night, Bryce Young, and

719
00:34:47,719 --> 00:34:51,000
Speaker 1: JJ McCarthy. Well, that is not a list of quarterbacks

720
00:34:51,000 --> 00:34:54,120
Speaker 1: you want to be on. And I would say two

721
00:34:54,200 --> 00:34:55,879
Speaker 1: or three of those guys won't even start all season

722
00:34:55,920 --> 00:35:00,279
Speaker 1: and probably so give me the Baker interception because Jill

723
00:35:00,320 --> 00:35:03,640
Speaker 1: would love this. We're getting plus odds on Baker Mayfield

724
00:35:03,640 --> 00:35:05,960
Speaker 1: to throw a pick, plus one oh five. Thank you

725
00:35:06,080 --> 00:35:08,520
Speaker 1: very much. I'll take that. Every time. He led the

726
00:35:08,600 --> 00:35:11,799
Speaker 1: league interceptions last year with sixteen. He's at at least

727
00:35:11,840 --> 00:35:15,000
Speaker 1: one interception in nineteen of thirty four starts for the

728
00:35:15,040 --> 00:35:18,319
Speaker 1: Bucks the last two seasons, so fifty six percent more

729
00:35:18,360 --> 00:35:20,399
Speaker 1: than half the games both years. I know he hasn't

730
00:35:20,440 --> 00:35:22,560
Speaker 1: had it yet, but he's chucking it up there given

731
00:35:22,880 --> 00:35:25,120
Speaker 1: given the defense a chance, as he loves to do.

732
00:35:25,680 --> 00:35:28,240
Speaker 1: He's thrown ninety picks and one hundred and five career

733
00:35:28,280 --> 00:35:31,440
Speaker 1: starts at least one fifty seven percent of a start,

734
00:35:31,480 --> 00:35:33,759
Speaker 1: so basically the same number as the last couple of

735
00:35:33,840 --> 00:35:37,200
Speaker 1: years in Tampa. This should be a minus number, never

736
00:35:37,239 --> 00:35:40,239
Speaker 1: a plus number for Baker. And again, like you said,

737
00:35:40,239 --> 00:35:42,480
Speaker 1: it kind of fits the kitchen singh spot. We know

738
00:35:42,640 --> 00:35:44,680
Speaker 1: Sas Gardner and some of those other d backs how

739
00:35:44,719 --> 00:35:46,799
Speaker 1: good they can be and make a play. And then

740
00:35:46,840 --> 00:35:49,600
Speaker 1: of course a little nibbless some escalators here at bet

741
00:35:49,600 --> 00:35:52,480
Speaker 1: three sixty five. You can play multiple interceptions two or

742
00:35:52,480 --> 00:35:55,560
Speaker 1: more at plus five twenty five. He did that five

743
00:35:55,600 --> 00:35:58,320
Speaker 1: games last year, and he's done that twenty one percent

744
00:35:58,360 --> 00:36:01,480
Speaker 1: of his career starts. That would mean under plus four hundred.

745
00:36:01,480 --> 00:36:03,920
Speaker 1: We're getting a little juice on the odds there. And

746
00:36:04,000 --> 00:36:06,480
Speaker 1: if you like that, and if you like the Jets

747
00:36:06,480 --> 00:36:10,799
Speaker 1: angle it all closed together in those games with multiple interceptions,

748
00:36:10,840 --> 00:36:14,120
Speaker 1: the Bucks are sorry. Baker is six and sixteen straight up.

749
00:36:14,440 --> 00:36:17,960
Speaker 1: So two interceptions in a Jets loss plus twenty two

750
00:36:18,000 --> 00:36:21,279
Speaker 1: to seventy five at bet three six five and then

751
00:36:21,320 --> 00:36:24,200
Speaker 1: one last one season leader bet. How about Baker for

752
00:36:24,280 --> 00:36:26,879
Speaker 1: season leader interceptions as well. It's a weird market. As

753
00:36:26,920 --> 00:36:29,640
Speaker 1: we know, you got to play long enough to not

754
00:36:29,719 --> 00:36:33,240
Speaker 1: get benched. Baker's not getting bench the weird the leader

755
00:36:33,280 --> 00:36:36,120
Speaker 1: in the market we just talked about him, Jake Browning

756
00:36:36,200 --> 00:36:38,279
Speaker 1: is your odds leader. I don't even know I Jake

757
00:36:38,320 --> 00:36:40,960
Speaker 1: brown gonna finish the season like how. We don't even

758
00:36:41,000 --> 00:36:43,080
Speaker 1: know how much he's gonna get to play or if

759
00:36:43,080 --> 00:36:44,000
Speaker 1: he's that bad does he.

760
00:36:44,000 --> 00:36:44,800
Speaker 2: Get to keep playing?

761
00:36:45,239 --> 00:36:48,520
Speaker 1: Remember, Baker won this market one quote unquote with sixteen.

762
00:36:48,640 --> 00:36:50,400
Speaker 1: Last year he had a season with fourteen. He had

763
00:36:50,440 --> 00:36:53,720
Speaker 1: one with twenty one. It's twenty five to one Baker

764
00:36:53,719 --> 00:36:57,160
Speaker 1: interceptions leader. I'll buy the dip and what more What

765
00:36:57,200 --> 00:37:00,239
Speaker 1: fun can you have other than in interceptions? Escal later

766
00:37:00,280 --> 00:37:02,760
Speaker 1: on Baker and Mayfield just playing a little five hundred

767
00:37:02,760 --> 00:37:04,080
Speaker 1: ball to get the defensive chance.

768
00:37:04,520 --> 00:37:06,560
Speaker 3: Yeah, you mentioned it was all the stats. I'll say this,

769
00:37:06,719 --> 00:37:09,279
Speaker 3: thirteen throws of twenty plus yards time for most in

770
00:37:09,320 --> 00:37:13,080
Speaker 3: the NFL that without interceptions. It's leading towards that coming.

771
00:37:13,239 --> 00:37:16,120
Speaker 3: So I completely see where you're coming from the other bet.

772
00:37:16,160 --> 00:37:18,160
Speaker 3: I'll add to this, I think I have to play

773
00:37:18,200 --> 00:37:22,520
Speaker 3: two interceptions, Jets money line and Jets defense last touchdown. Like,

774
00:37:22,640 --> 00:37:25,200
Speaker 3: just to have that opportunity where you're just sitting there

775
00:37:25,200 --> 00:37:28,120
Speaker 3: waiting and he's already has one, would just be fun

776
00:37:28,160 --> 00:37:31,520
Speaker 3: to have. All Right, you're on another prop here and

777
00:37:31,560 --> 00:37:34,919
Speaker 3: we're going back to Chicago and Dallas. This just makes sense.

778
00:37:35,400 --> 00:37:37,880
Speaker 3: I mean if you look inside the stats of Chicago,

779
00:37:38,000 --> 00:37:40,279
Speaker 3: I mean, this guy is getting all the looks. I'll

780
00:37:40,280 --> 00:37:42,040
Speaker 3: have some of the numbers after. But what are you

781
00:37:42,080 --> 00:37:42,680
Speaker 3: doing with Rome?

782
00:37:43,120 --> 00:37:45,160
Speaker 1: Yeah, we're going to Rome. We're going for Rome with

783
00:37:45,280 --> 00:37:48,600
Speaker 1: Dunes taking their receptions escalator. So we talked about this

784
00:37:48,680 --> 00:37:52,200
Speaker 1: game already. Both defenses have been awful. They are number

785
00:37:52,200 --> 00:37:54,040
Speaker 1: one and number two and in the fantasy points allowed

786
00:37:54,040 --> 00:37:57,279
Speaker 1: two receivers so far the season. Now, let's remember who's

787
00:37:57,320 --> 00:38:00,440
Speaker 1: Dallas played this season. Week one, they played the who

788
00:38:00,440 --> 00:38:03,640
Speaker 1: are allergic to passing, and the Cowboys are still top

789
00:38:03,719 --> 00:38:06,239
Speaker 1: two in most fantasy points allowed the receiveras and though

790
00:38:06,239 --> 00:38:09,120
Speaker 1: Philly didn't pass so much because Lak Neighbors and Wandel

791
00:38:09,200 --> 00:38:12,919
Speaker 1: Robinson combined for seventeen catches three hundred and nine yards

792
00:38:13,040 --> 00:38:15,919
Speaker 1: last week, they both had double digit targets. They both

793
00:38:15,960 --> 00:38:19,680
Speaker 1: had at least eight receptions. Dallas's top corner, dron Bland,

794
00:38:19,760 --> 00:38:22,120
Speaker 1: is out. Also, Oh Dunsley is a guy that I've

795
00:38:22,120 --> 00:38:24,200
Speaker 1: been high on coming of this season. You watch the

796
00:38:24,239 --> 00:38:26,840
Speaker 1: preseason games, he was the guy for Caleb Williams. He

797
00:38:26,840 --> 00:38:29,680
Speaker 1: has showed great chemistry there and has been playing out.

798
00:38:30,080 --> 00:38:33,680
Speaker 1: Week one nine targets, six catches, Week two to eleven

799
00:38:33,719 --> 00:38:38,360
Speaker 1: targets and seven catches. Last season, his rookie year, he

800
00:38:38,440 --> 00:38:41,480
Speaker 1: only had three games all season over seven targets. His

801
00:38:41,520 --> 00:38:45,040
Speaker 1: best game was six receptions. That's his worst game now

802
00:38:45,080 --> 00:38:48,080
Speaker 1: this season, So I think that he is to me

803
00:38:48,239 --> 00:38:51,239
Speaker 1: the clear wide receiver one now, not djmore That was

804
00:38:51,280 --> 00:38:53,919
Speaker 1: a guy that I liked in fantasy, and it's playing

805
00:38:53,960 --> 00:38:55,680
Speaker 1: out so far. I think books have caught up. He

806
00:38:55,680 --> 00:38:58,200
Speaker 1: looks like maybe even a top ten Fantasy guy going forward.

807
00:38:58,560 --> 00:39:01,960
Speaker 1: DJ Moore a targets total in two weeks, barely one

808
00:39:02,000 --> 00:39:05,080
Speaker 1: hundred yards for him. But both guys are right at

809
00:39:05,120 --> 00:39:07,080
Speaker 1: the four and a half receptions line, and I just

810
00:39:07,120 --> 00:39:10,040
Speaker 1: think that that line hasn't cut up to what's happening here.

811
00:39:10,080 --> 00:39:12,640
Speaker 1: And we know how valuable it is to be wide

812
00:39:12,640 --> 00:39:15,560
Speaker 1: receiver one andy Ben Johnson offense, You're gonna get peppered

813
00:39:15,840 --> 00:39:18,840
Speaker 1: with a lot of looks. I know o'donsay is not

814
00:39:18,880 --> 00:39:21,480
Speaker 1: Amenai and Brena'm not saying he is. But in the

815
00:39:21,520 --> 00:39:24,000
Speaker 1: last three years, Amen Raz the go to guy and

816
00:39:24,040 --> 00:39:27,399
Speaker 1: a Ben Johnson offense, averaging almost seven catches a game.

817
00:39:27,800 --> 00:39:30,120
Speaker 1: He's gone over four and a half catches all but

818
00:39:30,320 --> 00:39:34,719
Speaker 1: nine games the last three seasons, so six catches are

819
00:39:34,719 --> 00:39:37,560
Speaker 1: more free force to the time. Eight catches are more

820
00:39:37,600 --> 00:39:40,520
Speaker 1: over a third of the time. We're playing Roma Dunsa

821
00:39:40,719 --> 00:39:43,239
Speaker 1: over four and a half receptions, it's minus one twenty

822
00:39:43,280 --> 00:39:45,680
Speaker 1: two at fan duel so we're gonna grab that one,

823
00:39:45,760 --> 00:39:47,719
Speaker 1: and then we're to take the escalator. Remember last year

824
00:39:48,080 --> 00:39:50,200
Speaker 1: we took the DJ Moore escalator. We hit that a

825
00:39:50,239 --> 00:39:52,600
Speaker 1: couple of times. We had some fun with that. This

826
00:39:52,680 --> 00:39:55,800
Speaker 1: is the good you know, No more gimmick bubbles, screens

827
00:39:55,840 --> 00:39:58,040
Speaker 1: and all that crap. This is a real receiver one.

828
00:39:58,400 --> 00:40:01,560
Speaker 1: We're seeing why he was a top ten NFL draft pick.

829
00:40:01,680 --> 00:40:06,760
Speaker 1: So escalater at six, seven and eight catches. Six catches

830
00:40:06,840 --> 00:40:10,160
Speaker 1: is plus one sixty five, seven is plus three twenty

831
00:40:10,200 --> 00:40:13,640
Speaker 1: and eight is plus six hundred. Remember both Giants receivers

832
00:40:13,719 --> 00:40:17,280
Speaker 1: hit that last week, and aman Ra hit those numbers

833
00:40:17,560 --> 00:40:19,640
Speaker 1: three fourths the time at six, a third of the

834
00:40:19,680 --> 00:40:21,920
Speaker 1: time at eight. So we're gonna take that all the

835
00:40:21,960 --> 00:40:23,840
Speaker 1: way to the top with Roma, Dunzay and hope for

836
00:40:23,920 --> 00:40:25,719
Speaker 1: another big game and what should be more of a

837
00:40:25,719 --> 00:40:26,600
Speaker 1: shootout this week.

838
00:40:27,080 --> 00:40:29,319
Speaker 3: Yeah, we're all off to Rome this weekend. I like

839
00:40:29,400 --> 00:40:31,759
Speaker 3: this as well. I think you know. Rome has the

840
00:40:31,800 --> 00:40:34,680
Speaker 3: most route's, highest average depth of target on the team,

841
00:40:34,800 --> 00:40:38,319
Speaker 3: eight more targets than Olamide and DJ and to me,

842
00:40:38,640 --> 00:40:42,319
Speaker 3: the icing on the cake is fourteen first read and

843
00:40:42,400 --> 00:40:45,960
Speaker 3: designated targets. They are actually looking in the playbook to

844
00:40:46,000 --> 00:40:48,239
Speaker 3: get him the ball. That is what that tells me,

845
00:40:48,320 --> 00:40:50,799
Speaker 3: So I like it as well. All right, you've got

846
00:40:50,840 --> 00:40:53,120
Speaker 3: one more prop here? What do you? And we haven't

847
00:40:53,160 --> 00:40:54,960
Speaker 3: touched this game yet, so I'm interested on what you

848
00:40:55,080 --> 00:40:57,239
Speaker 3: like here? Rams Eagles? You like a prop?

849
00:40:58,000 --> 00:40:58,280
Speaker 2: Yeah?

850
00:40:58,520 --> 00:41:01,120
Speaker 1: I like Eagles Eagles Ram was a pretty interesting game

851
00:41:01,160 --> 00:41:03,640
Speaker 1: this week. We saw that game twice last year once

852
00:41:03,680 --> 00:41:04,520
Speaker 1: in the playoffs.

853
00:41:05,200 --> 00:41:06,480
Speaker 2: We've talked about how.

854
00:41:06,280 --> 00:41:09,160
Speaker 1: Skeptically am of the Eagles right now Covin Patilla's offense.

855
00:41:09,320 --> 00:41:11,680
Speaker 1: I'm not loving how run heavy they are, but I

856
00:41:11,719 --> 00:41:15,120
Speaker 1: can bet it. So let's take the Saquon Barkley rushing escalator.

857
00:41:15,719 --> 00:41:17,719
Speaker 1: I lean Rams on the number in this game if

858
00:41:17,719 --> 00:41:20,239
Speaker 1: I had to pick a side, but I don't like

859
00:41:20,280 --> 00:41:21,160
Speaker 1: the matchup for them.

860
00:41:21,200 --> 00:41:22,040
Speaker 2: Specifically.

861
00:41:22,640 --> 00:41:25,239
Speaker 1: The Rams defensive line that is so good in some

862
00:41:25,440 --> 00:41:29,880
Speaker 1: games is built on speed. They are small, speedy guys.

863
00:41:30,440 --> 00:41:34,360
Speaker 1: The Eagles are built on ginormous power rushing on the

864
00:41:34,360 --> 00:41:38,440
Speaker 1: offensive line, and both games we saw last year, this

865
00:41:38,520 --> 00:41:43,080
Speaker 1: offensive line manhandled the small Rams defensive line they played twice.

866
00:41:43,400 --> 00:41:47,000
Speaker 1: Saquon Barkley ran for four hundred and sixty yards in

867
00:41:47,040 --> 00:41:50,800
Speaker 1: those two games. Last year regular season twenty six carries,

868
00:41:50,960 --> 00:41:54,040
Speaker 1: two hundred and fifty five yards and two scores. Then

869
00:41:54,080 --> 00:41:57,920
Speaker 1: the playoffs he matched it basically twenty six carries again

870
00:41:58,160 --> 00:42:01,759
Speaker 1: two hundred five yards and two score. First game he

871
00:42:01,800 --> 00:42:03,960
Speaker 1: has a run of seventy and a run of seventy

872
00:42:03,960 --> 00:42:06,720
Speaker 1: two yards. Second game he has a run of sixty

873
00:42:06,719 --> 00:42:09,239
Speaker 1: two and seventy eight yards. In the playoffs. That's four

874
00:42:09,360 --> 00:42:13,120
Speaker 1: runs of sixty more yards against one team. Last season,

875
00:42:14,040 --> 00:42:18,279
Speaker 1: Rams defense has been elite against the pass, but pretty

876
00:42:18,320 --> 00:42:21,880
Speaker 1: average against the run, and that's against the Titans and Texans.

877
00:42:21,400 --> 00:42:22,720
Speaker 2: Who are not good run teams.

878
00:42:23,480 --> 00:42:26,200
Speaker 1: I'm not really in on the Eagles right now, but

879
00:42:26,280 --> 00:42:28,640
Speaker 1: if they're good in this game, it's gotta just be

880
00:42:28,719 --> 00:42:31,160
Speaker 1: Saquan again. So here's how I'm betting it. A few

881
00:42:31,160 --> 00:42:34,400
Speaker 1: different ways here, and I'm gonna kind of take the escalator.

882
00:42:35,040 --> 00:42:38,239
Speaker 1: I trust volume for Saquon more than anything else. The

883
00:42:38,280 --> 00:42:40,960
Speaker 1: Eagles are so run heavy right now, and this matchup

884
00:42:41,040 --> 00:42:44,319
Speaker 1: begs them to stay run heavy. So give me the

885
00:42:44,560 --> 00:42:48,040
Speaker 1: twenty plus rushing attempts at plus one, twenty five at

886
00:42:48,040 --> 00:42:51,160
Speaker 1: bat three, six five, and then twenty five rushing attempts

887
00:42:51,160 --> 00:42:53,239
Speaker 1: is plus five point fifty, So that's the first step

888
00:42:53,280 --> 00:42:57,000
Speaker 1: of the escalator. He had twenty six attempts both games

889
00:42:57,080 --> 00:43:00,759
Speaker 1: last year, and now if he gets that many attempts, now,

890
00:43:00,800 --> 00:43:04,040
Speaker 1: I'm banking on him cracking a long runner too. So

891
00:43:04,120 --> 00:43:05,719
Speaker 1: here's where we go on the escalator from their one

892
00:43:05,800 --> 00:43:08,920
Speaker 1: hundred and fifty yards plus eight fifty. I don't want

893
00:43:08,960 --> 00:43:11,000
Speaker 1: the median outcomes. If they bottle them up, I'm wrong,

894
00:43:11,000 --> 00:43:14,480
Speaker 1: I'll lose my bets. And that's that longest rush. Give

895
00:43:14,480 --> 00:43:17,359
Speaker 1: me the highest one out there, fifty yard rusher more

896
00:43:17,760 --> 00:43:21,120
Speaker 1: fourteen to one at bet three six five and then

897
00:43:21,160 --> 00:43:25,440
Speaker 1: over at DraftKings two hundred yards. Totally irresponsible bet except

898
00:43:25,440 --> 00:43:27,399
Speaker 1: for the fact he did it both games last year.

899
00:43:27,719 --> 00:43:30,280
Speaker 1: It's forty four to one. So just a little nibble

900
00:43:30,320 --> 00:43:33,480
Speaker 1: at the top. We're gonna need Sakue have another seventy

901
00:43:33,600 --> 00:43:37,120
Speaker 1: yard run or two to get that one. But I

902
00:43:37,120 --> 00:43:39,640
Speaker 1: think they're gonna feed him, and to me, it's the

903
00:43:39,680 --> 00:43:41,120
Speaker 1: only thing that he wills know how to do is

904
00:43:41,160 --> 00:43:44,240
Speaker 1: feed Saquon and do a tush push, and this game

905
00:43:44,800 --> 00:43:46,560
Speaker 1: is kind of the perfect spot for them to keep

906
00:43:46,600 --> 00:43:47,200
Speaker 1: on doing it.

907
00:43:47,960 --> 00:43:50,440
Speaker 3: Yeah, it feels like this is probably one of the

908
00:43:50,480 --> 00:43:52,480
Speaker 3: more fun bets you can root for this weekend because

909
00:43:52,480 --> 00:43:54,840
Speaker 3: he's got to get the ball a ton in this matchup,

910
00:43:54,840 --> 00:43:57,120
Speaker 3: based on all the factors you said. I'll also say this,

911
00:43:57,200 --> 00:43:59,439
Speaker 3: in the two games he faced the Rams last year,

912
00:43:59,640 --> 00:44:03,440
Speaker 3: it's thirteen first downs. That almost feels impossible. But he

913
00:44:03,520 --> 00:44:06,840
Speaker 3: did so much work in those games. So god to assume, Sirian,

914
00:44:06,920 --> 00:44:09,480
Speaker 3: he's going back to the Bowl. All right, you have

915
00:44:09,600 --> 00:44:12,640
Speaker 3: now a look ahead to week four. Can't believe week

916
00:44:12,640 --> 00:44:15,640
Speaker 3: four already? All right? We gotta cherish each of these weeks.

917
00:44:15,840 --> 00:44:17,719
Speaker 3: So what is your what is your look ahead to

918
00:44:17,760 --> 00:44:18,200
Speaker 3: week four?

919
00:44:19,960 --> 00:44:20,760
Speaker 2: Let's look ahead?

920
00:44:21,000 --> 00:44:23,040
Speaker 3: Just give it a shot. How about next week?

921
00:44:23,480 --> 00:44:25,200
Speaker 2: I got my mind, sat.

922
00:44:26,640 --> 00:44:29,880
Speaker 3: Lookup. My mind said, but.

923
00:44:29,960 --> 00:44:32,160
Speaker 1: You know, I all cherish the forty nine ers, the

924
00:44:32,200 --> 00:44:34,600
Speaker 1: one team that got me a win last week, because

925
00:44:34,600 --> 00:44:36,520
Speaker 1: I'm gonna bet the forty nine ers a week four

926
00:44:37,239 --> 00:44:41,000
Speaker 1: forty nine Ers minus three home against the Jaguars, it's

927
00:44:41,040 --> 00:44:44,279
Speaker 1: a minus one tenant fan duel. Now, normally I look ahead.

928
00:44:44,280 --> 00:44:46,120
Speaker 1: We're trying to get head of what's gonna happen with

929
00:44:46,160 --> 00:44:49,040
Speaker 1: this weekend's games. I just think that does sets up here.

930
00:44:49,040 --> 00:44:51,719
Speaker 1: We talked about Jaguars earlier. Maybe they dropped a one

931
00:44:51,760 --> 00:44:54,520
Speaker 1: and two at the Texans. Maybe we see some more cracks.

932
00:44:54,560 --> 00:44:59,040
Speaker 1: We've seen Liam Cohen, Trevor Lawrence, Brian Thomas some kind

933
00:44:59,040 --> 00:45:02,279
Speaker 1: of weird quite on the same page there, Laurenceid I

934
00:45:02,280 --> 00:45:04,799
Speaker 1: think is not really playing though well or hitting his guys.

935
00:45:05,800 --> 00:45:08,759
Speaker 1: I think the defensive pressure upfront will be looking very

936
00:45:08,760 --> 00:45:10,640
Speaker 1: different this week and could be matched by both. So

937
00:45:10,719 --> 00:45:13,040
Speaker 1: the Niners the Niners could be three and zero. All

938
00:45:13,080 --> 00:45:16,520
Speaker 1: that's fine. My look at reason is Brock Purty more

939
00:45:16,560 --> 00:45:18,560
Speaker 1: and more. I think it looks like Perty's gonna play

940
00:45:18,600 --> 00:45:21,400
Speaker 1: next week, is already practicing. This always looked like an

941
00:45:21,400 --> 00:45:23,440
Speaker 1: injury that was more the two week variety than the

942
00:45:23,440 --> 00:45:26,000
Speaker 1: five week variety when we got that coming out. So

943
00:45:26,040 --> 00:45:29,719
Speaker 1: I make this without Purty minus five with Perty that

944
00:45:29,760 --> 00:45:32,280
Speaker 1: goes past the touchdown, and we're getting at the minus

945
00:45:32,280 --> 00:45:35,000
Speaker 1: three key number. Don't tell me Mac Jones as good

946
00:45:35,040 --> 00:45:38,439
Speaker 1: as Brock Perty. Give Brockburry some credit here. Mac won

947
00:45:38,480 --> 00:45:41,319
Speaker 1: the game last week, but right now he's twentieth or

948
00:45:41,320 --> 00:45:45,640
Speaker 1: worst in completion overexpected averaged up the target pressure to

949
00:45:45,719 --> 00:45:48,080
Speaker 1: sack rate. He's thirty first in that metric, near the

950
00:45:48,120 --> 00:45:51,800
Speaker 1: bottom of the league. Purty does a better job eliminating sacks.

951
00:45:51,840 --> 00:45:54,040
Speaker 1: He can create a little bit more and the Niners

952
00:45:54,120 --> 00:45:56,879
Speaker 1: just a much better team. So at minus three, I'm

953
00:45:56,880 --> 00:45:58,759
Speaker 1: just gonna get ahead of it and grab a line

954
00:45:58,800 --> 00:46:01,160
Speaker 1: that I'm gonna like even with, but I'm gonna love

955
00:46:01,200 --> 00:46:03,600
Speaker 1: if I get pretty. I work for us on the

956
00:46:03,680 --> 00:46:08,000
Speaker 1: Geno Grab with Jayden Daniels this week, so we'll see

957
00:46:08,000 --> 00:46:10,560
Speaker 1: if we can get ahead on another quarterback injury situation

958
00:46:10,640 --> 00:46:13,319
Speaker 1: and get the line in our favor Niners minus three.

959
00:46:13,440 --> 00:46:15,200
Speaker 1: Be sure to find the key number if you can.

960
00:46:15,719 --> 00:46:17,719
Speaker 3: Yeah, the whole goal here is the number. The look

961
00:46:17,719 --> 00:46:19,600
Speaker 3: ahead in that game was five and a half, So

962
00:46:19,920 --> 00:46:23,000
Speaker 3: find the three lock to three. All right, That'll do it.

963
00:46:23,000 --> 00:46:25,680
Speaker 3: Here on the Action Network podcast for our NFL Week

964
00:46:25,719 --> 00:46:28,759
Speaker 3: three Best Bets episode, Do not forget to download the

965
00:46:28,760 --> 00:46:31,040
Speaker 3: three award winning Action Network app to see more from

966
00:46:31,120 --> 00:46:34,720
Speaker 3: all of our Action Network contributors. Do you want instant

967
00:46:34,719 --> 00:46:38,799
Speaker 3: notifications when Action experts track their bets, go to actionework

968
00:46:38,840 --> 00:46:42,680
Speaker 3: dot com, slash Pro use the promo code pod twenty

969
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Speaker 3: Pod twenty for twenty dollars off a year of Action Pro.

970
00:46:46,200 --> 00:46:48,440
Speaker 3: And if you were on Twitter or x or whatever

971
00:46:48,480 --> 00:46:51,200
Speaker 3: we're calling it these days, we have a great new feature.

972
00:46:51,320 --> 00:46:54,480
Speaker 3: If you see a bet from any of your favorite

973
00:46:54,520 --> 00:46:57,759
Speaker 3: Action Experts or anyone on gambling Twitter. You can now

974
00:46:57,840 --> 00:47:00,719
Speaker 3: tag at Playbook and tell your bus to build you

975
00:47:00,760 --> 00:47:03,359
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976
00:47:03,400 --> 00:47:05,640
Speaker 3: build it out for you with a quick slip link

977
00:47:05,880 --> 00:47:08,440
Speaker 3: that opens right up to your sportsbook. So check it

978
00:47:08,480 --> 00:47:11,600
Speaker 3: out Playbook on Twitter, and again, if you want to

979
00:47:11,600 --> 00:47:13,759
Speaker 3: tail some of the bets we gave out today, make

980
00:47:13,760 --> 00:47:15,640
Speaker 3: sure to look for the quick slip link in the

981
00:47:15,760 --> 00:47:19,080
Speaker 3: podcast and video descriptions, or go to actionour dot com

982
00:47:19,200 --> 00:47:22,480
Speaker 3: slash bet Now. We will be back Sunday night for

983
00:47:22,520 --> 00:47:26,479
Speaker 3: our NFL recap show that'll be live on Action Howork

984
00:47:26,480 --> 00:47:29,840
Speaker 3: to YouTube page shortly after Sunday night football. Thank you

985
00:47:29,880 --> 00:47:32,839
Speaker 3: for listening, enjoy the slave, good luck with all your

986
00:47:32,880 --> 00:47:51,360
Speaker 3: beds this weekend, and let's go cash some tickets. Action

987
00:47:51,520 --> 00:47:55,920
Speaker 3: Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or someone

988
00:47:56,000 --> 00:47:58,920
Speaker 3: you care about has a gambling problem, help is available

989
00:47:59,000 --> 00:48:01,520
Speaker 3: twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler