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Speaker 1: A historic transition is in the works that shifting from

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Speaker 1: the century of the combustion engine to the time of

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Speaker 1: electric vehicles. This transformation is affecting consumers and businesses alike.

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Speaker 1: US consumers bought nearly three hundred thousand new battery electric

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Speaker 1: vehicles in the second quarter of twenty twenty three. In

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Speaker 1: the race to dominate the EV global market, China is

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Speaker 1: the standout. It makes over eighty percent of the world's

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Speaker 1: lithium iron batteries that power such vehicles, but the US

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Speaker 1: is keen to be competitive too. President Joe Biden's Inflation

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Speaker 1: Reduction Act aims to bring more EV manufacturing back to

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Speaker 1: the US and its trading partners.

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Speaker 2: That massive new spending bill also set to boost sales

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Speaker 2: of electric vehicles. It includes hundreds of billions of dollars

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Speaker 2: to address climate change one program new tax breaks for

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Speaker 2: electric vehicles.

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg's Colin Mckerrika and Malcolm Scott report that this is

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Speaker 1: the dawn of the EV era, and the stakes are

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Speaker 1: incredibly high.

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Speaker 3: When we look at the EV sales figures in the

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Speaker 3: most recent month, about a third of all vehicles sold

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Speaker 3: in China, in the largest vehicle market in the world,

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Speaker 3: are plugins, and about twenty five percent of those are

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Speaker 3: purely electric. This is happening really fast now in the

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Speaker 3: largest auto market in the world.

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Speaker 4: It's all about tensions not just between US and China,

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Speaker 4: but tensions between labor groups, tensions between parts of society

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Speaker 4: that this transition is causing.

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Speaker 1: I'm your host today, Roslin Matheson today on the big take.

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Speaker 1: The electric vehicle revolution is here and it's shaking up.

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Speaker 5: The global economy.

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Speaker 1: Malcolm, I'll start with you because you write in this

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Speaker 1: important story that the world is going through what you

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Speaker 1: call a historic transition from internal combustion engines to electric

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Speaker 1: powered vehicles. Can you just begin by giving us an

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Speaker 1: overview of what's happening.

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Speaker 4: So, the world economy has been set up for about

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Speaker 4: one hundred years based on internal combustion engine supply chains.

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Speaker 4: That is all changing very rapidly right before our very eyes.

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Speaker 4: At the moment. Of course, those legacy automakers are still around,

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Speaker 4: They're still churning out the gas guzzling cars. But the

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Speaker 4: Chinese have really made the world stand up and notice

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Speaker 4: that this transition to EV sales and EV adoption is

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Speaker 4: happening quickly, and it's happening right now, so right across

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Speaker 4: the world economy, we're starting to see these changes in

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Speaker 4: supply chains already play out. And it's just the start

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Speaker 4: of what's going to be a decades long process that

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Speaker 4: will revolutionize parts of the global economy.

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Speaker 1: And it is happening really really fast. But what's behind

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Speaker 1: it happening so quickly? Is it demand to people just

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Speaker 1: want to drive electric vehicles because of the environment, because

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Speaker 1: of cost. What are the main things that are pushing

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Speaker 1: this rapid shift.

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Speaker 4: I guess there's the demand side. People have realized that

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Speaker 4: these cars are actually pretty cool. Tesla's helped us learn that.

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Speaker 4: But then on the technology side, the battery side's become

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Speaker 4: so much better. And that's call in space where he

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Speaker 4: can maybe talk about some of those changes on the

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Speaker 4: battery technology front.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, this is something we've been tracking for

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Speaker 3: over a decade at Bloomberg New Energy Finance Bloomberg and

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Speaker 3: EF and one of the things that you can really

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Speaker 3: see is that battery prices have plummeted. They've gone from

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Speaker 3: over one thousand dollars a kill a one hour to

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Speaker 3: about one hundred and forty dollars one hundred and fifty

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Speaker 3: dollars a kilo one hour over the last decade. There

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Speaker 3: is a consumer adoption consumer interest angle, but there's a

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Speaker 3: really big technology story here, and it's one of the

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Speaker 3: most remarkable technology stories of our time, and that is

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Speaker 3: that it has gotten much cheaper to store power in

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Speaker 3: a battery over the last decade. And not only has

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Speaker 3: it gotten cheaper, the batteries themselves have gotten much better,

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Speaker 3: better energy density, better cycle life, better safety. All of

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Speaker 3: these things are a big part of what's enabling this

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Speaker 3: EV story to take off.

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Speaker 1: It's interesting you're talking about those confluence of factors all

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Speaker 1: coming together at once in a way to create the

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Speaker 1: environment for this. But mal you mentioned one country in particular,

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Speaker 1: China already the standout lead in the EV race. How

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Speaker 1: did it get in front so quickly? What gave them

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Speaker 1: this advantage?

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Speaker 4: Short answer is it's a mix of government subsidies, tax breaks,

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Speaker 4: and you know, China doing what China does, deciding we

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Speaker 4: want to dominate this space, and then going all in.

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Speaker 4: You know, it started in the early two thousands, really

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Speaker 4: before many of the Western countries saw the potential I

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Speaker 4: guess of what we're seeing today. Into the twenty tens,

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Speaker 4: I think there was a real acceleration in China, maybe

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Speaker 4: some recognition that it was going to be tough to

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Speaker 4: take on the Japanese legacy automakers, the Americans, the Europeans

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Speaker 4: in their own game, so maybe EV's was an area

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Speaker 4: where they could perhaps leapfrog to some extent. Into the

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Speaker 4: mid twenty tens, you had the China twenty twenty five

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Speaker 4: Industrial Policies outlined where they decided, hey, we want to

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Speaker 4: move our economy away from this low end manufacturing gig

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Speaker 4: that's fueled their rise to that date and beca i'm

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Speaker 4: an economy moving up the value chain where more of

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Speaker 4: the value added of what they're selling is made and

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Speaker 4: recognized and into the pockets of the Chinese companies doing it.

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Speaker 4: And evs were part of that broad technology focus that

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Speaker 4: was part of that broad industrial plan. They've also at

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Speaker 4: the same time made sure that they had some strength

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Speaker 4: in the processing of the minerals that are needed for evs.

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Speaker 4: They've dominated on the production side, but also in the

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Speaker 4: processing of those minerals.

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Speaker 3: I think a lot of people don't realize this, but

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Speaker 3: China is by far the largest auto market in the world.

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Speaker 3: It is significantly larger than the US or the EU,

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Speaker 3: and not only that, but when we look at the

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Speaker 3: ev sales figures in the most recent month, about a

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Speaker 3: third of all vehicles sold in China, in the largest

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Speaker 3: vehicle market in the world, are plugins, and about twenty

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Speaker 3: five percent of those are purely electric. So, just to

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Speaker 3: underline Belkom's point, this is happening really fast now in

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Speaker 3: the largest auto market in the world.

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Speaker 1: It's really interesting the way that we talk about it

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Speaker 1: both being very fast in a way very slow, because

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Speaker 1: it feels like the accelerated in the past year or

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Speaker 1: so where everybody's talking about electric vehicles. But now your

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Speaker 1: point was that China saw this twenty years ago. By

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Speaker 1: comparison the US and Europe, they seem to be catching

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Speaker 1: up or trying to catch up. Colin, can you talk

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Speaker 1: a little bit about where the US and Europe are

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Speaker 1: now and the question is can they catch up?

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Speaker 3: About seventeen percent of global vehicle sales this year are

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Speaker 3: going to have a plug of some sort, so that's

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Speaker 3: plug in hybrids or battery electrics, and only about three

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Speaker 3: percent of all the vehicles on the road in the

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Speaker 3: world at the end of this year will be electric.

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Speaker 3: There's still lots to play for, but China does have

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Speaker 3: this really formidable lead. So China accounts for about eighty

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Speaker 3: percent of the battery manufacturing capacity in the world today,

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Speaker 3: the lithemion battery manufacturing capacity, and in some parts of

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Speaker 3: the supply chain upstream from there, it's even more than that.

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Speaker 3: So what's happened in the last really the last two

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Speaker 3: or three years, is that Europe and North America have decided, actually,

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Speaker 3: you know, we don't want to significantly lose this much

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Speaker 3: of the auto supply chain and of the cutting edge

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Speaker 3: technology that is going to be a big part of

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Speaker 3: the next hundred years of the automotive industry and other industries.

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Speaker 3: And they've said, look, we want to re onshore more

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Speaker 3: of the manufacturing supply chain.

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Speaker 6: And so they're making a big push.

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Speaker 3: There's a big push going on right now in Europe,

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Speaker 3: in North America, and I would say it's being broadly successful.

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Speaker 3: There is a significant amount of battery and ev manufacturing

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Speaker 3: capacity being built in North America and Europe. It's not

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Speaker 3: the scale that China is. So when we look at

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Speaker 3: twenty twenty five, look out a few years in twenty

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Speaker 3: twenty five, we're still anticipating China to be about seventy

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Speaker 3: to seventy two percent. Again, that's down about eighty percent

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Speaker 3: today of global battery manufacturing capacity. So the lead is formidable,

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Speaker 3: but it is still very early days in this and

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Speaker 3: this is a story that's going to play out over

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Speaker 3: several decades because there are about one point three billion

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Speaker 3: vehicles on the road today and only about forty million

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Speaker 3: of those are electric.

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Speaker 1: At this point, let's talk about some of the specific

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Speaker 1: forecasts from bluebeg NEF. We're not saying billions, we're talking

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Speaker 1: trillions here, potentially up for grabs. What are the forecasts

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Speaker 1: telling you that you're looking at.

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Speaker 3: One thing to note is that global auto sales are

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Speaker 3: worth about two point five trillion dollars a year, very

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Speaker 3: significant portion of GDP for some countries and a significant

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Speaker 3: portion of exports for other countries. And if we just

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Speaker 3: take a sort of a step back on where we

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Speaker 3: are on this ev question, evs were about one percent

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Speaker 3: of sales in twenty seventeen, five percent in twenty twenty.

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Speaker 3: This is when everyone starts to notice it a little bit,

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Speaker 3: and this year, as they said, around seventeen or eighteen percent.

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Speaker 3: When we look a bit further out, we think they

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Speaker 3: get to around thirty percent or but a third by

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Speaker 3: twenty twenty six, and then just under fifty percent by

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Speaker 3: twenty thirty. If you think about that two point five

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Speaker 3: trillion dollars a year in annual vehicle sales, a growing

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Speaker 3: share of that is going to be electric.

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Speaker 5: Colin.

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Speaker 1: Let's talk about the US Inflation Reduction Act. Whether the

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Speaker 1: US is spending essentially billions to lure produces to or

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Speaker 1: back to America. Some critics have called it a subsidy

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Speaker 1: in effect for US industry. How might the IRA is

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Speaker 1: they call it or IRA play a role when it

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Speaker 1: comes to the EV sector in the US.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, there's a bunch of different moving pieces around IRATH.

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Speaker 3: One of them is around a tax credit for producing batteries.

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Speaker 3: So there's a forty five dollars per kilowot hour tax

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Speaker 3: credit if you make a battery in the US, and

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Speaker 3: that is enough to more than close the gap currently

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Speaker 3: with what we see in the difference between batteries produced

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Speaker 3: in the US versus in China. So that's meant to

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Speaker 3: say this can be a very competitive place to build

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Speaker 3: batteries and therefore evs.

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Speaker 6: Then there are other things around end consumer subsidies.

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Speaker 3: So an income tax credit of seventy five hundred dollars

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Speaker 3: for electric vehicles. And then there are a number of

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Speaker 3: other provisions that are meant to encourage automakers to retool

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Speaker 3: manufacturing plants, and a bunch of other things that are

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Speaker 3: designed to look at this whole supply chain altogether. So

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Speaker 3: it's a lot of money that the US is mobilizing,

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Speaker 3: and in some cases its allies or close friends are

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Speaker 3: sort of saying, actually, you're pulling a lot of the

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Speaker 3: jobs from other places as well. And that doesn't just

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Speaker 3: apply to EV's and batteries. It applies across other areas

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Speaker 3: like hydrogen or carbon capture and storage, and a number

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Speaker 3: of other parts of what we call the broader energy transition.

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Speaker 3: What the move to EV means is that there is

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Speaker 3: a large number of very small part suppliers. Those jobs

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Speaker 3: are really at risk because a lot of those parts

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Speaker 3: and components that go into larger components that eventually go

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Speaker 3: into an engine or go into a vehicle, those are

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Speaker 3: really at risk in the switch to electric because you

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Speaker 3: just won't need as many parts. So I think in

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Speaker 3: the supply chain you are probably going to see reduction

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Speaker 3: as you move from internal combustion engine to electric vehicle,

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Speaker 3: But the big question is where do the battery manufacturing

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Speaker 3: jobs go, And that's why there's this big sort of

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Speaker 3: fight and this big industrial policy push over the batteries.

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Speaker 3: If those can replace what's going on on the job

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Speaker 3: losses on the internal combustion engine parts supply side, then

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Speaker 3: it's a net neutral or maybe even positive from a

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Speaker 3: job's point of view.

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Speaker 1: After the break, what are the US and Europe doing

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Speaker 1: to keep up with the push for evs? We talked

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Speaker 1: earlier about the US and China, but it's also interesting

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Speaker 1: to talk some of the key examples around the world

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Speaker 1: where this is playing out. So, Malcolm, one of the

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Speaker 1: countries that you and your colleagues write about in this

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Speaker 1: story is Mexico, which is intriguing because why is Mexico

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Speaker 1: so prominent when it comes to electric vehicles.

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Speaker 4: Well, Mexico stands to be one of the big winners

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Speaker 4: from IRA with those juicy tax credits because they apply

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Speaker 4: to cars made there as well, so manufactured right across

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Speaker 4: North America, not just the United States of America. So

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Speaker 4: you've got General Motors, BMW, Ford, Stilantis, Kia. They're all

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Speaker 4: announcing plans to boost and expand their EV production there

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Speaker 4: because they want to get in on that game. Tesla

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Speaker 4: of course, is building a megafactory in northern state there,

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Speaker 4: so you know they want to get in on the game.

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Speaker 4: Problem is, China is already there. China is ramping up

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Speaker 4: as sales to Mexicans just as Mexico starts to get

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Speaker 4: ready to ramp up those sales to North America, to

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Speaker 4: the United States. China's already in there. They're selling electric buses,

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Speaker 4: they're selling electric taxis, and they're selling a lot of

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Speaker 4: cheap internal combustion engines still to Mexico. So so far,

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Speaker 4: they're pretty confident that they can keep doing that without

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Speaker 4: necessarily causing political tensions. We spoke with BYD America's chief

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Speaker 4: Stellar Lee. She said she's not worried about what she

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Speaker 4: calls disturbing noise in the media regarding these tensions. She

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Speaker 4: thinks that there's going to be so many jobs up

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Speaker 4: for grabs. It's going to be new technology brought to Mexico.

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Speaker 4: She's betting and maybe China's betting that there's enough to

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Speaker 4: go around for both in this case.

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Speaker 1: And meanwhile, looking at North America, it's interesting because Canada

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Speaker 1: is trying also to push to build a domestic supply

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Speaker 1: chain of electric vehicles. We'll see a lot of countries

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Speaker 1: try and get this domestic supply chain going.

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Speaker 5: Colin how is that going?

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Speaker 6: The Canadian government doesn't want to be left out of this.

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Speaker 3: Auto manufacturing is a significant portion of jobs in southern

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Speaker 3: Ontario and also Quebec, so the Canadian government is also

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Speaker 3: making a big push to ensure that batteries are built there.

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Speaker 3: So there's been some big announcements there both in Quebec

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Speaker 3: and Ontario, and also evs are built there.

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Speaker 6: We do this.

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Speaker 3: Lithiumion battery supply chain ranking every year at Bloomberg and

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Speaker 3: EF and Canada actually comes out quite positively in the

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Speaker 3: top few countries, partially because of all the access to

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Speaker 3: raw materials it has that can help fuel this battery boom.

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Speaker 3: So I think Canada is quite well positioned, and the

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Speaker 3: government is providing significant support both at the federal and

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Speaker 3: the state level to ensure that jobs aren't lost there

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Speaker 3: and that Canada stays at the cutting edge of battery

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Speaker 3: and EV manufacturing.

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Speaker 6: But there hasn't been.

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Speaker 3: That much actually built todate, I should say, so most

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Speaker 3: of it is forward looking, at least on the manufacturing side.

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Speaker 3: But I do think the Canadian government is very conscious

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Speaker 3: that it doesn't want to see all of this new

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Speaker 3: capacity end up purely in the US because of the

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Speaker 3: Inflation Reduction Act, So it is trying to ensure that

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Speaker 3: it's at the table and providing significant support to match

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Speaker 3: some of those programs.

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Speaker 1: And Malcoln we write in the story about what's called

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Speaker 1: the ring of fire, and that's not what we think

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Speaker 1: of as kind of the earthquakes and volcanoes that can

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Speaker 1: go off around the world, but something else. And why

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Speaker 1: is it so important for the manufacturing prospects for Canada

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Speaker 1: when it comes to electric vehicles, Well, the.

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Speaker 4: Ring of Fire gives them a real shot at mining

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Speaker 4: many of these minerals that're so crucial to the batteries. Domestically,

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Speaker 4: there's some sixty seven billion dollars worth of these minerals

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Speaker 4: that mining companies are estimated to be sitting on. It's

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Speaker 4: all about tensions, not just between US and China, but

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Speaker 4: tensions between labor groups, tensions between parts of society that

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Speaker 4: this transition is causing. Here, it's a tension between two

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Speaker 4: green goals. We think that digging up these minerals is

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Speaker 4: going to be good in the long run because it's

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Speaker 4: going to get rid of these gas guzzling engines and

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Speaker 4: help produce nice, clean evs. But on the other side

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Speaker 4: of this, there are people pro testing and saying hold on,

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Speaker 4: These vast deposits of minerals are also in what's one

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Speaker 4: of the world's most effective carbon sinks, and we don't

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Speaker 4: want to mess with that. There's also indigenous interests and

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Speaker 4: communities that are saying hold on, hold on, let's not

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Speaker 4: mess up this pristine green environment. So you know, you've

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Speaker 4: got these green goals colliding, and that means there's been

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Speaker 4: real delays in the approval of what could be a

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Speaker 4: real lifeline to Canada's economy. Bloomberg economist Stuart Paul says

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Speaker 4: this could be worth somewhere between two point seventy five

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Speaker 4: to four point two five percent of Canada's GDP, So

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Speaker 4: this is significant, you know, economy altering stuff that's up

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Speaker 4: for grabs here.

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Speaker 5: Over in Europe.

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Speaker 1: Also, there's another country that stands out also pushing into

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Speaker 1: the manufacturing race on electric vehicles, and that's Hungry.

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Speaker 4: Our reporter there, Bureau chief Salton Simon in Budapest, has

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Speaker 4: done plenty of reporting on the big new battery plant

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Speaker 4: that's being built by the Chinese investment there. BMW is

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Speaker 4: building a new EV factory in Hungary. So it's interesting

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Speaker 4: what's happening in the second largest city in Hungary to Brexen,

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Speaker 4: which is traditionally played second fiddle to Budapest, but at

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Speaker 4: the moment is something of a boomtown. It's transforming the

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Speaker 4: city of around two hundred thousand residents. Home prices are

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Speaker 4: surging as workers file in. This is putting Hungry potentially

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Speaker 4: on the map to become one of the world's most

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Speaker 4: significant battery producers.

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Speaker 1: And Colin, what are we drawing from the Bloomberg NIF

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Speaker 1: data about that industrial park in Debretzen.

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Speaker 3: That Hungary is emerging as one of the clusters and

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Speaker 3: that specific region as one of the clusters of the

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Speaker 3: new automotive supply chain. And if you look across Europe,

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Speaker 3: there's a few of these forming. There's one in sort

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Speaker 3: of Hungary and eastern Europe. There's another one in the

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Speaker 3: Nordics where a lot of the battery makers are looking

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Speaker 3: to try and capitalize on the fact that the grid

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Speaker 3: is already supplied by clean electricity, mostly from hydro and

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Speaker 3: trying to make a green battery as a result. But

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Speaker 3: so these are kind of the new hubs I guess

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Speaker 3: if you will, of where it looks like this industry

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Speaker 3: is emerging. So Hungary is definitely one of them.

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Speaker 1: And Malcolm, is that feeding into any tensions in the region.

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Speaker 1: Are we seeing that start to show up when it

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Speaker 1: comes to electric vehicles and the competition there for market share?

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Speaker 4: There is the threat that nearby neighbors that are still

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Speaker 4: very reliant on the internal combustion engine, like the Czech

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Speaker 4: republican Slovakia, they get left behind somewhat. The Czech government

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Speaker 4: was left scrambling for alternatives. Volkswagen they said that there's

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Speaker 4: no business rationale to build a battery factor in the

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Speaker 4: country now, or at least for now. So you know,

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Speaker 4: there is a risk that as Hungry rises, other nearby

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Speaker 4: neighbors that are still maybe stuck with their legacy IC

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Speaker 4: engines and supply chains reliant on those start to fade.

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Speaker 4: We are still going to see internal combustion engines around

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Speaker 4: for a while yet, So this isn't necessarily overnight. It's

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Speaker 4: about tapping into the rapid growth of evs. While the

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Speaker 4: legacy ICE related manufacturers maybe are all battling for a

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Speaker 4: smaller and shrinking pie.

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Speaker 1: Coming up a closer look at China's investment in the

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Speaker 1: EV market beyond.

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Speaker 5: Its own borders.

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Speaker 1: We were talking earlier on about Mexico, which is a

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Speaker 1: key player in all of this in terms of the

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Speaker 1: push for electric vehicles and mal you did talk about

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Speaker 1: China's role in that, but Colin, can you just remind listeners,

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Speaker 1: how is the approach of China in Mexico different from

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Speaker 1: the US approach.

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Speaker 3: The Chinese vehicle manufacturers of all types have significant over capacity,

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Speaker 3: and that's not just evs, that's also internal combustion engines.

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Speaker 3: Vehicle sales in the country have risen dramatically but have

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Speaker 3: not continued the same trajectory they were on before the pandemic.

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Speaker 3: And what that sort of means is that a lot

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Speaker 3: of those manufacturers are then looking to other parts of

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Speaker 3: the world and looking to where they can export vehicles to.

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Speaker 3: So you're seeing a significant amount of Chinese made vehicles

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Speaker 3: starting to show up in places like Mexico and other

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Speaker 3: parts of Latin America. There's places like Mexico, but other

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Speaker 3: markets like Brazil interestingly, forward closed its vehicle manufacturing facility

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Speaker 3: in Brazil, and the buyer of it was BID, a

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Speaker 3: Chinese electric vehicle manufacturer, and that will start producing evs

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Speaker 3: for the Brazilian market starting next year and probably other

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Speaker 3: parts of the Latin American market.

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Speaker 6: So China is sort.

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Speaker 3: Of stepping in in some ways as the US is

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Speaker 3: stepping back. The Chinese vehicle players are targeting the bottom

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Speaker 3: of the market and are really going aggressively after these

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Speaker 3: international regions because of this overcapacity they have domestically.

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Speaker 5: Well quite some way away, Malcolm.

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Speaker 1: Of course, China is also targeting Thailand for electric vehicles.

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Speaker 1: Can you talk a bit about what you're saying there.

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Speaker 4: We had reporting there that tapped into the tension that's

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Speaker 4: flaring this time, not necessarily US China tension, which were

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Speaker 4: also used to talking about this time, it's Japanese Chinese tension.

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Speaker 4: Japan has long been the leader in Thailand's car making space,

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Speaker 4: but quickly it's being challenged by China, which is ramping

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Speaker 4: up its foreign direct investment into the area. Thai authorities

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Speaker 4: are welcoming it with open arms. We spoke with the

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Speaker 4: manager of a vast industrialist state who said that she's

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Speaker 4: seeing huge investments from companies such as byd and others,

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Speaker 4: and her Japanese clients are teasing her saying, hold on you,

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Speaker 4: you like these Chinese guys better now She of course said, no, no, no,

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Speaker 4: we like all our clients. But you know, the numbers

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Speaker 4: do tell the story from just a few years ago,

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Speaker 4: where the Japanese were outpacing Chinese investment into that automotive

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Speaker 4: space by you know, four or five to one. Now

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Speaker 4: those ratios are flipped and this year so far we've

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Speaker 4: seen Japanese investment lagged Chinese investment by about a ratio

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Speaker 4: of two to one. So the Chinese are pouring the

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Speaker 4: money in to what is a vastly important industry for Thailand.

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Speaker 1: And Colin of course, we know that the Thai government

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Speaker 1: is very much encouraging investment but also pushing people in

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Speaker 1: Thailand to drive more electric vehicles.

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Speaker 5: What's their target for twenty thirty, So.

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Speaker 3: The Thai government has a target of thirty percent of

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Speaker 3: all automobile production in Thailand to be electric by twenty thirty.

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Speaker 3: And that's really because right now auto manufacturing is about

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Speaker 3: ten percent of Thai GDP. It's sometimes referred to as

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Speaker 3: the Detroit of Southeast Asia or Detroit of the East

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Speaker 3: It is a very significant part of the overall economy,

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Speaker 3: and Thailand exports vehicles to a lot of the other

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Speaker 3: Southeast Asia economies, so they're again ensuring they don't want

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Speaker 3: to be left behind in that. So they've got this

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Speaker 3: thirty percent target by twenty thirty, which is six years away.

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Speaker 3: Now that they're aiming for that, early signs are quite promising,

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Speaker 3: as Mel has said. Byd Changana see Great Wall Motor.

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Speaker 3: These might not be household names to Western listeners, but

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Speaker 3: these are big Chinese auto manufacturers who are setting up

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Speaker 3: shop building plants making investments in Thailand as a way

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Speaker 3: to get into the broader Southeast Asia region, which is

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Speaker 3: one of the faster growing car markets in the world.

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Speaker 1: And obviously we're talking about a lot going on globally here,

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Speaker 1: a lot of money, a lot of accelerated plans for

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Speaker 1: investment companies taking advantage and pushing heavily into this sector.

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Speaker 1: And as you were saying, call, some of these targets

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Speaker 1: aren't that far off, but also a lot can happen

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Speaker 1: between now and then. If you're talking to our listeners,

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Speaker 1: you're saying, what are the things they really need to

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Speaker 1: be looking for in the coming months and years.

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Speaker 6: Yeah.

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Speaker 3: So the first one is this point between government push

439
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Speaker 3: and organic consumer demand take off. So a lot of

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Speaker 3: the last decade has been government trying to get the

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Speaker 3: EV market going, hoping that organic consumer demand will take

442
00:22:52,240 --> 00:22:54,160
Speaker 3: off and then they won't be rolling such a big

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Speaker 3: ball up such as steep Hill.

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Speaker 6: And that's already happened in China.

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Speaker 3: What we're watching for is which other countries does that

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Speaker 3: happen to as well. In Europe, you're already over twenty

447
00:23:03,280 --> 00:23:05,359
Speaker 3: percent of sales being electric too, so you could argue

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00:23:05,359 --> 00:23:07,359
Speaker 3: that's kind of the case there too, though there are

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00:23:07,400 --> 00:23:09,520
Speaker 3: a bunch of policy leaders still pushing that forward.

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Speaker 6: The big question is the US.

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Speaker 3: For US, so since the Inflation Reduction Act was passed,

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00:23:14,680 --> 00:23:17,720
Speaker 3: over one hundred billion dollars of new investment we've tracked

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00:23:17,880 --> 00:23:21,040
Speaker 3: that is going into EV and battery manufacturing in North America.

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00:23:21,640 --> 00:23:25,520
Speaker 3: That's a really, really significant amount of money that should

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Speaker 3: really set the US and North America up to start

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Speaker 3: to catch up with the rest of the world.

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Speaker 6: When it comes to EV adoption.

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Speaker 3: But you move from this challenge of kind of getting

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Speaker 3: in the game to executing, and now we're in kind

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00:23:35,400 --> 00:23:37,920
Speaker 3: of this execution phase. We're watching to see how well

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00:23:38,000 --> 00:23:40,200
Speaker 3: the US can execute on this scaling up all these

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00:23:40,200 --> 00:23:43,600
Speaker 3: things of the supply chain to enable this supply to

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00:23:43,640 --> 00:23:46,560
Speaker 3: match demand and continue to rise and get that takeoff

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00:23:46,560 --> 00:23:49,560
Speaker 3: that we've seen in other places. The other thing is

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00:23:49,600 --> 00:23:53,080
Speaker 3: this tension between different parts of this transition. So there's

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00:23:53,119 --> 00:23:56,760
Speaker 3: this tension between global environmental goals or large scale CEO

467
00:23:56,760 --> 00:24:00,400
Speaker 3: two goals and local environmental concerns around extraction. There's also

468
00:24:00,440 --> 00:24:03,800
Speaker 3: this tension between localization and cost reduction. So a lot

469
00:24:03,840 --> 00:24:06,199
Speaker 3: of the push over the last decade has been to

470
00:24:06,240 --> 00:24:10,520
Speaker 3: get costs down. Now you also have this additional variable

471
00:24:10,520 --> 00:24:12,359
Speaker 3: in there, which is we don't only want them to

472
00:24:12,359 --> 00:24:15,000
Speaker 3: be affordable, we want them to be made locally. That

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00:24:15,080 --> 00:24:17,720
Speaker 3: may actually cause a slowdown in some of the adoption

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Speaker 3: that we're seeing.

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Speaker 4: We're already seeing some of this protectionist sentiment come through.

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00:24:25,119 --> 00:24:30,400
Speaker 4: The European Union last month launching an investigation into Beijing's

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Speaker 4: financial support for the ev industry.

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Speaker 7: The EU is worried about the threat to its carmakers

479
00:24:36,680 --> 00:24:40,640
Speaker 7: from cheaper imports from China. It says it's Chinese rivals

480
00:24:40,680 --> 00:24:45,800
Speaker 7: have an unfair advantage from state subsidies. European officials say

481
00:24:45,840 --> 00:24:49,320
Speaker 7: this distorts the market. They've launched a major inquiry.

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00:24:50,240 --> 00:24:53,520
Speaker 4: You know, there's millions of jobs that at risk across

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00:24:53,560 --> 00:24:57,560
Speaker 4: Europe as these cheap Chinese cars flood in. If they

484
00:24:57,600 --> 00:25:01,080
Speaker 4: start to put up barriers, If these barriers start to

485
00:25:01,320 --> 00:25:04,639
Speaker 4: impede on the relationships even further than that, of course,

486
00:25:04,720 --> 00:25:07,359
Speaker 4: is going to ripple through the global economy, in fact,

487
00:25:07,440 --> 00:25:09,439
Speaker 4: is already rippling through. And the other thing that's come

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00:25:09,520 --> 00:25:11,960
Speaker 4: up already in this conversation is the simple fact that

489
00:25:12,280 --> 00:25:15,720
Speaker 4: evs don't need as many bits as the cars that

490
00:25:15,760 --> 00:25:19,960
Speaker 4: we're used to. So we're seeing some economies, some smaller

491
00:25:19,960 --> 00:25:22,399
Speaker 4: economies that really are going to lose out no matter what.

492
00:25:22,920 --> 00:25:26,120
Speaker 4: One of the cases we've got in our stories. South Africa,

493
00:25:26,520 --> 00:25:29,560
Speaker 4: platinum palladium is a big part of their mining industries.

494
00:25:29,800 --> 00:25:34,720
Speaker 4: As those metals go into catalytic converters, which are parts

495
00:25:34,760 --> 00:25:36,879
Speaker 4: of the exhaust system that turn some of the nasty

496
00:25:36,920 --> 00:25:39,920
Speaker 4: gases into less nasty gases. You just don't need those

497
00:25:39,960 --> 00:25:43,840
Speaker 4: in evs anymore. So we've got those metal prices falling dramatically,

498
00:25:43,920 --> 00:25:46,880
Speaker 4: about forty percent down at the moment over the past year.

499
00:25:47,359 --> 00:25:50,520
Speaker 4: Jobs are being lost already there in an economy where

500
00:25:50,760 --> 00:25:54,720
Speaker 4: unemployment's already around thirty three percent, potential loss of mining jobs.

501
00:25:54,920 --> 00:25:57,919
Speaker 4: The challenge to keep up is going to be really challenging.

502
00:25:58,080 --> 00:26:00,359
Speaker 4: And that's just one economy. There's going to be plenty

503
00:26:00,400 --> 00:26:03,560
Speaker 4: more losers e merge for every winner, So you know

504
00:26:03,600 --> 00:26:07,240
Speaker 4: that's going to be very challenging right across labor markets

505
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Speaker 4: across the globe.

506
00:26:08,600 --> 00:26:10,919
Speaker 1: And of course you throw politics in the political cycle

507
00:26:10,960 --> 00:26:13,000
Speaker 1: and elections coming into all of that, and you've got

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00:26:13,000 --> 00:26:16,600
Speaker 1: a complex soup. Colin Malcolm, thank you very much for

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Speaker 1: joining me today.

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Speaker 6: Thanks for us, Thank you, thanks for.

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Speaker 1: Listening to us here at The Big Take. It's a

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Speaker 6: Pat Pat Pat don bore