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Speaker 1: The Action Network podcast podcasts.

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Speaker 2: If you are even remotely a savage, you'll run these

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Speaker 2: people over a second.

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Speaker 3: Welcome to the Action Network podcast UFC Betting Preview. I'm

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Speaker 3: your host for this week only, Billy Ward. Today, I'm

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Speaker 3: joined by our very special guest, John land franc I

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Speaker 3: have taken over for Sean Sorillo, who is out for

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Speaker 3: the week. We're gonna look at all the week at

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Speaker 3: all the best bets for this weekend's UFC cards, with props, underdogs,

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Speaker 3: and more. If you'd like to tell some of the

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Speaker 3: bets we discussed today, make sure to find the quick

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Speaker 3: sit slip links in the podcast and video description, or

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Speaker 3: go to actionnetwork dot com slash bet.

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Speaker 4: Now.

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Speaker 3: First off, we have the main event. It is Cory

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Speaker 3: Sandhagen versus Davis and Figuredo. Figuredo coming in two and

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Speaker 3: one in his new division heavy heavy underdog to Cory Sandhagen. John,

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Speaker 3: you have a bet on the sand Haagan side. Tell

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Speaker 3: me about this fight and what you're thinking.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, well, thanks for having me. As always, you know this,

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Speaker 1: when this main event was made, it just it didn't

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Speaker 1: really excite me that much because I kind of feel

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Speaker 1: like the trajectory of these two guys careers are going

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Speaker 1: in opposite directions, and I feel like Cory Sanhagan, you know,

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Speaker 1: he wants to push a faster pace, and I think

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Speaker 1: he basically has Figuredo covered everywhere. I don't think Figuraedo's power,

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Speaker 1: you know, has translated to one thirty five. As we've

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Speaker 1: you know, kind of thought of him as a dangerous

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Speaker 1: striker with finishing upside at flyweight, just not really seeing

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Speaker 1: that at bantam wait. And I don't think anyone thinks

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Speaker 1: he's going to go out there and Ko Sandhagan. The

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Speaker 1: best angle for me is, you know, Sanhagen wants to push,

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Speaker 1: to push that pace, but Figuredo lately has kind of

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Speaker 1: been this like plotting, more methodical type fighter. And you know,

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Speaker 1: in his fight versus even Cody Garbrandt, a fight that

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Speaker 1: I had Figuredo part moneyline parlaid pretty substantially. You know,

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Speaker 1: he had to go to his grappling after round one,

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Speaker 1: right off the bat, and I just I just can't.

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Speaker 1: I couldn't get that out of my head, that thinking

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Speaker 1: that this guy couldn't you know, confidently strike with garb

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Speaker 1: Bray and the guy that probably he could have, you know,

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Speaker 1: you would think would be able to put away standing up.

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Speaker 1: So the way I'm gonna attack this fight is I'm

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Speaker 1: gonna lay a little bit of the chalk and say,

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Speaker 1: you know, say Higga's gonna grind him down. I don't

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Speaker 1: think he's gonna go out there and ko figuredo. I

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Speaker 1: don't even think really he's going to want to stand up,

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Speaker 1: you know, for long durations of the fight, even though

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Speaker 1: I think he could piece him up Saint Higgen, that is,

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Speaker 1: if he wanted to. So I'm taking san Haagens minus

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Speaker 1: one ninety five that he wins in rounds four or

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Speaker 1: five or by decision. That's on FanDuel and I just

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Speaker 1: think that's the best way to attack this because the

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Speaker 1: over is pretty juiced at four and a half rounds,

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Speaker 1: So the douthmakers are saying that's probably where we're going

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Speaker 1: headed towards the decision. I thinkfa Hey and could find

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Speaker 1: different ways to fight the finish slate in the fight.

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Speaker 1: So again four five or decision Offandel minus one ay five.

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Speaker 1: That's that's my best bet for the name event.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I like that prop. I'm kind of seeing it

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Speaker 3: pretty similarly where I'm gonna be looking to back Corey

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Speaker 3: Sanhagan live the one thing I would push back on

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Speaker 3: is Figaredo's power not translating to one thirty five. He

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Speaker 3: knocked down Marlon Vera, Cheeto Vera. He's the only person

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Speaker 3: in twenty four UFC fights to drop Vera who's taken

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Speaker 3: a ton of damage. And it's not like Vera's old.

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Speaker 3: He's still thirty two, so we can't chalk that up

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Speaker 3: to age. I do think Figuredo is dangerous early. He's

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Speaker 3: got a little bit of grappling upside should he choose

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Speaker 3: to use it. Sanahagen's take down defense in the UFC

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Speaker 3: is sixty three percent, which isn't great. He's not a

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Speaker 3: bad grappler, and that stat is a little bit misleading

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Speaker 3: because he just fought Umar, which is gonna gonna throw

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Speaker 3: that off a little bit. But Figaredo usually has that

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Speaker 3: grappling in his back pocket. Hard to use that in

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Speaker 3: an extended fight as the fight extends, because it does

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Speaker 3: make you more tired than to stand in trade with someone,

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Speaker 3: especially a taller fighter who can stay at range get

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Speaker 3: some recovery rest a little bit. So what I'm doing

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Speaker 3: is a quarter unit. I'm FIGI at plus four point

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Speaker 3: thirty heading into the fight and then looking for sand

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Speaker 3: Haagan live. I think that's pretty much how you're seeing

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Speaker 3: it too. I sometimes go back and forth on even

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Speaker 3: giving out live bets because it's hard to track and

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Speaker 3: people won't be watching it live. But this feels like

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Speaker 3: a big enough event that I think a live bet

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Speaker 3: is fair in this spot. Do you have any live interest, John,

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Speaker 3: or you're just sticking with the pre fight option.

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Speaker 4: You know?

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Speaker 1: I mean I try to dive into live markets. It's

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Speaker 1: just you know, even watching on a little bit of

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Speaker 1: a thirty second delay can be difficult at times. But

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Speaker 1: I you know, I've had a lot of success live betting.

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Speaker 1: The thing about this fight, like you said, it's going

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Speaker 1: to really come down to you know, when you start

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Speaker 1: to when it starts to feel like figurators wearing down,

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Speaker 1: are getting tired, where he's not going to be as dangerous,

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Speaker 1: that's what the time to jump in. Yeah, you're going

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Speaker 1: to get a better You're probably going to get a

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Speaker 1: better online than you would, you know know, pre fight

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Speaker 1: on best. I mean that's yeah, and that's good enough.

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Speaker 1: I mean that's good enough reason to at talk that way.

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Speaker 3: One other thing you said about this main event that

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Speaker 3: I wholeheartly agree with is that you weren't that excited

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Speaker 3: about it, and I agree with you on that one

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Speaker 3: hundred percent. But one fight I am extremely excited about,

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Speaker 3: possibly for the wrong reasons, is our fight of the night,

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Speaker 3: the co main event, bo Nickel taking on Rainier der Ritter.

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Speaker 3: Super weird fight in a lot of ways, because we

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Speaker 3: just saw Bo Nickel take on a dangerous SBMISSION grappler

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Speaker 3: in Paul Craig and it turned into the world's worst

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Speaker 3: kickboxing match, and this is kind of the same fight,

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Speaker 3: except RDR is a little bit better at those things

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Speaker 3: than Paul Craig. I think the real determining factor with

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Speaker 3: this one will be whether Nichol decides to wrestle. I

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Speaker 3: think he probably heard the complaints or the noise from

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Speaker 3: the MMA sphere about not doing that against Paul Craig.

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Speaker 3: But I would say the RDR at this stage in

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Speaker 3: their career, is a little bit more dangerous on the ground.

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Speaker 3: But if Nichol doesn't get to the ground, this is

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Speaker 3: going to be potentially another very bad striking man. Nichol

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Speaker 3: is awkward on the feet, you know, he really likes

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Speaker 3: to load up a big left hand, but he leaves

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Speaker 3: himself open for stuff and lunges forward. Doesn't throw a

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Speaker 3: lot of great combinations. RDR is clearly not very comfortable

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Speaker 3: on his feet either, but he can land a little

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Speaker 3: bit of power. You know, we saw him knocked down

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Speaker 3: Gerald miershard, which isn't the greatest accomplishment, but he landed

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Speaker 3: a knockdown in the UFC. I think he's the better

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Speaker 3: technical striker, although clearly a worse athlete than bon Nickel.

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Speaker 3: So what I'm looking to do here is come in.

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Speaker 3: I'm taking the money line on RDR. The best I'm

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Speaker 3: seeing right now is plus two seventy five. You have

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Speaker 3: to assume that this fight is going to get a

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Speaker 3: wider line as the casual fans come in and just

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Speaker 3: pour in on bon Nickel. You know, all the money

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Speaker 3: line parlays are gonna have Nickel sprinkled on top, all

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Speaker 3: the people that don't really watch a ton. So what

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Speaker 3: I'm suggesting, if you're hearing my voice and it is

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Speaker 3: not Saturday afternoon when you're listening, hold that money a

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Speaker 3: little bit. Let's wait to make that bet. I think

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Speaker 3: we get a better line close to fight time. And

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Speaker 3: then the one kind of weird just for fun, when

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Speaker 3: I'm thrown in there. RDR to land a single takedown

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Speaker 3: at DraftKings is plus four to fifty. He has a

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Speaker 3: judo background, which kind of works well against rustling, just

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Speaker 3: because they're a different style of takedowns, and we're also

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Speaker 3: relying on the UFC scorekeeping to judge what could be

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Speaker 3: called a reversal. Is the takedown there it's plus four

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Speaker 3: to fifty. I wouldn't be shocked if Nicol tries to

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Speaker 3: do some wall install and RDR hits a little trip

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Speaker 3: or a little Zuma gishi or something against the fence.

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Speaker 3: Probably won't hold him down from top for very long.

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Speaker 3: But that's a fun one. Don't bet a ton on

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Speaker 3: it would be our prop squad if we were still

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Speaker 3: doing Prop Squad on non pay per view weeks. John,

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Speaker 3: you have what appears to be pretty identical. You're on

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Speaker 3: the same money line side, and you also have a

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Speaker 3: fun prop. Tell me what I missed?

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Speaker 4: No, I think you hit the nail of the head there.

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Speaker 1: And this is one of those fights where you go

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Speaker 1: back and like watch these guys last couple of fights,

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Speaker 1: you just feel worse and worse about whichever side you're on,

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Speaker 1: Like I watched that g rid of fight versus mearshout again,

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Speaker 1: and I've immediately went to look at I was like,

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Speaker 1: what is a boon Nichols knockout prop? Because I mean,

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Speaker 1: this guy, you know, leads with his head. He's gonna

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Speaker 1: get I think the ritter will actually go for a takedown,

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Speaker 1: not like strategically, just like instinctually he's going to be

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Speaker 1: pushing forward and like think that. I mean that's what

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Speaker 1: he normally does. That's he did it against Kevin Hahn

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Speaker 1: within the first ten seconds of the fight. And so

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Speaker 1: I wish I'm actually maybe more to tackle it with

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Speaker 1: like the same game parlay and put a bow Nickel

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Speaker 1: knockdown in there, because his actual knock out prop is

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Speaker 1: too short.

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Speaker 4: It's not even two to one.

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Speaker 3: But what I think.

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Speaker 4: Different, Yeah, of course, that's all I'm saying.

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Speaker 1: If I get the same game port, maybe if I

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Speaker 1: can find one where I can include one knockdown in

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Speaker 1: that Nickel side, it could you know, increase the payout.

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Speaker 1: But so you know, I think they will end up

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Speaker 1: in some kind of grappling exchanges. I just feel like

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Speaker 1: Nicol kind of here's that buzz. He's going to go

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Speaker 1: for a takedown. Maybe he wants to prove his chops

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Speaker 1: on the mat, and I think de Ritter, you know,

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Speaker 1: might just here jiu jitsu have a higher level right now,

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Speaker 1: and I'm going to be sprinkling probably a quarter unit

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Speaker 1: was where I normally play on my props. The Ritter

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Speaker 1: sub at plus seven fifty. All the main books are

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Speaker 1: sitting about plus seven to fifty right now. I don't

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Speaker 1: know exactly how that's going to materialize. I mean, I

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Speaker 1: you know, Bo Nicol's very confident in hes wrestling, and

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Speaker 1: we've seen him do well in grappling matches, but he's

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Speaker 1: never faced someone this high level. You know, this is

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Speaker 1: the toughest fight of his career, and you know, you

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Speaker 1: just don't feel confident watching him right now that he's

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Speaker 1: going to be able to move up the ranks. He

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Speaker 1: already dropped out of the rankings actually just kind of

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Speaker 1: admitting that he's not totally ready. So that's why I'm

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Speaker 1: just like, this feels more toss up fight to me

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Speaker 1: than it is one guy being at three to one hunderdog.

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Speaker 1: So I'm totally happy taking a plus two to seventy

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Speaker 1: five on to Ritter, and I'm gonna sprinkle his cell

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Speaker 1: at plus seven fifty as well.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, you have to expand on what you said. You said,

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Speaker 3: do you think he's a jiu jitsu practitioner at this

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Speaker 3: point career. Rdyr is a black belt in both judo

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Speaker 3: and Brazilian jiu jitsu. I think Bo Nickel might have

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Speaker 3: just gotten this purple belt in jiu jitsu, but he's

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Speaker 3: listed as a blue belt officially, so like clearly a

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Speaker 3: better level. It was a while ago and before Bo

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Speaker 3: really started submission grappling, but he got submitted by Gordon

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Speaker 3: Ryan pretty easily. RDR is no Gordon Ryan right like

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Speaker 3: Gordon Ryan as the Michael Jordan of submission grappling right now.

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Speaker 3: But still, and the biggest thing for me is Bo

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Speaker 3: Nicchol has looked progressively less impressive in every fight we've

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Speaker 3: seen him in, to the point that he was scared

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Speaker 3: to take down Paul Craig, which was probably strategically correct

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Speaker 3: because Paul Craig's only way to beat you was submitting you.

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Speaker 3: But I think Rdyr is a better striker than Paul Craig,

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Speaker 3: so it makes an interesting dynamic. The ritter is definitely

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Speaker 3: going to try some takedowns. What that looks like, we'll see.

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Speaker 3: He's been publicly campaigning for Bo to mix and some grappling.

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Speaker 3: He's like, the fans aren't here to see a bad

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Speaker 3: striking match between us, they want to see us on

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Speaker 3: the ground. So just the fact that he's saying that,

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Speaker 3: I think tells you a lot about the grappling levels.

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Speaker 3: And yeah, the submission prop makes a ton of sense.

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Speaker 3: I will note I refreshed the odds since I've been talking,

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Speaker 3: starting to see some plus three hundred downe alreadyr which

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Speaker 3: will probably also push up your submission prop as well.

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Speaker 3: So whether you're tailing John or I or both, I

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Speaker 3: think the longer you wait on these, the better it

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Speaker 3: will be. On the juicy underdog. Speaking of underdogs, we'll

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Speaker 3: go on to our favorite underdog section. We both have

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Speaker 3: two on completely different fights, So you start us out

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Speaker 3: and then I'll give you mine after that.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm attacking two dollars this week. I'm not insanely

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Speaker 1: confident about either one, but King Lee is my first

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Speaker 1: one to plus one twenty. I feel like Gus Blanos

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Speaker 1: is being a little bit overrated, especially in the grappling realm,

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Speaker 1: and I think Lee's being underrated and is grappling, and

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Speaker 1: Blanos has been forty three percent takedown defense so far

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Speaker 1: his UFC career, and he's been controlled for fourteen minutes,

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Speaker 1: giving up eight total takedowns, and that's just in three fights.

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Speaker 1: And we saw Egutavius Romus get on his back and

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Speaker 1: go for an arm bar and end up falling off

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Speaker 1: for the first round, and I believe he got his

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Speaker 1: back again in the second round.

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Speaker 4: So that was a good win for Blonos, no doubt

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Speaker 4: about it.

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Speaker 1: But then Wilso, we've seen Romeus in his last fight

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Speaker 1: and not looked as great, so maybe it wasn't such

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Speaker 1: a great win.

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Speaker 4: No, I'm not knocking him for the Marcus McGee laws.

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Speaker 4: I think anyone would have lost in that spot.

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Speaker 1: I just think Lee may be able to you know,

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Speaker 1: push the grappling, you know, fairly neutral in the striking department.

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Speaker 1: Blonos got stung by a couple of strikes that he

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Speaker 1: didn't like and seemed like he kind of got discombobulated

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Speaker 1: as far as allowed to take down easier after he

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Speaker 1: got stung. I think that Lee can do that at

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Speaker 1: least maybe bank some control time en route to you know,

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Speaker 1: a close decision, or at least making this just take

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Speaker 1: the plus money guy who's the better grappler, you know,

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Speaker 1: in a in a true toss up scenario where he

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Speaker 1: can bang two rounds with you know, with takedowns. So

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Speaker 1: that's my first dog that I like and my second dog,

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Speaker 1: which I absolutely hate going.

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Speaker 4: Back to the world.

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Speaker 1: But I'm I'm in betting on tel May's plus two

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Speaker 1: thirty five. I mean this guy, and no one wants

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Speaker 1: to bet him at all. Like, get why he's becoming

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Speaker 1: a bigger underdog after he lost in a minute in

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Speaker 1: seventeen seconds. Last time I wrote him up in the

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Speaker 1: fight that I thought again he at two to one,

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Speaker 1: he was a value side. Well, we've seen Thomas Peterson

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Speaker 1: one get KOed and two we've seen him, you know,

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Speaker 1: lose behind a job against Jamal Pogues. I don't think,

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Speaker 1: you know, I think Dantel Mays is some high fight

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Speaker 1: AQ guy, but he has a massive reach advantage in

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Speaker 1: this fight. I mean Peterson might go out there, take

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Speaker 1: him down and submit him at downtell May's I mean

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Speaker 1: he could, you know, if he can move around. He

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Speaker 1: does have a little bit athletic ability. He fight behind

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Speaker 1: his jab. You'll land a couple of big shots. Maybe

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Speaker 1: he's the one low output, but landing the cleaner, more

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Speaker 1: powerful strikes. And you know Peterson we've already seen is

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Speaker 1: vulnerable to some of you know, some of those bigger

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Speaker 1: head strikes. So you know I'm gonna I'm gonna take

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Speaker 1: May's at plus two thirty five. I was willing to

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Speaker 1: take it at plus two hundred. So I haven't even

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Speaker 1: actually bet pulled the trigger on that one yet because

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Speaker 1: I figured again I maybe even getting a better line

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Speaker 1: because nobody wants to bet Dontell Maye right now, but

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Speaker 1: I am going to fire one more time on him.

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Speaker 3: I so much don't want to bet that fight in general,

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Speaker 3: because then it would force me to watch the fight

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Speaker 3: because I'd be interested, and I don't want to do

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Speaker 3: that either. So no pushback there, that's great. I'm pretending

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Speaker 3: that fight doesn't exist. I'm going to hit on the

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Speaker 3: Quong Lee fight in a little bit. I actually agree

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Speaker 3: with your money line side, but I have a different

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Speaker 3: way of seeing it. The two I have kind of

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Speaker 3: structured like you, one narrow underdog, one wider one. The

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Speaker 3: narrow underdog Cam smotherman, he's plus one fourteen s take

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Speaker 3: it on Surrey Sidi. I think he has a pretty

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Speaker 3: clear boxing and speed advantage, where Sidi is a longer,

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Speaker 3: taller fighter who likes to kick and keep range, and traditionally,

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Speaker 3: if you're a boxer who pressures and closes the distance

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Speaker 3: and get inside on fighters like that, that's where you

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Speaker 3: have the advantage. I thought Smotherman looked a lot better

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Speaker 3: against Shake Hadley than he did on his unsuccessful Contender

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Speaker 3: series run. Neither of these guys have shown us any grappling.

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Speaker 3: I don't think either of them are very good at grappling. Hopefully,

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Speaker 3: for the sake of my bet, they just choose to

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Speaker 3: make it a boxing versus kicking matchup. Smotherman at slight

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Speaker 3: plus money I think is pretty clear slide here. Then

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Speaker 3: the other one, my long kind of gross, bigger guy

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Speaker 3: fight is Ryan Loader, recent Ultimate Fighter winners taking on

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Speaker 3: as a Matt Bekaev. All we know about Bekaev that

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Speaker 3: we've seen him do at a high level is grapple.

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Speaker 3: He went to a split decision against Dylan Budka on

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Speaker 3: the regional circuit, which is not a great sign with

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Speaker 3: how Budka has been in the UFC, and Loader is

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Speaker 3: a three or four time D one All American wrestler

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Speaker 3: who kinda also can't strike. But if all Bekoev can

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Speaker 3: do his grapple and he can't get a takedown, here

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Speaker 3: could be another ugly striking match. Loader is plus three

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Speaker 3: to twenty. I don't think he's going to win, but

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Speaker 3: I think he wins this one more than one out

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Speaker 3: of four times, which is all we need. At those odds.

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Speaker 3: Could also see like a very boring takedown install plan

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Speaker 3: from Loader, which is probably the optimal plan. I don't

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Speaker 3: know that he does it, but again, super long odds.

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Speaker 3: And speaking of long, you went real long on your

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Speaker 3: top props this time. Interested in both of them. Tell

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Speaker 3: me about your two and what you're thinking, and then

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Speaker 3: I'll get back to guests on Blano's quang Li.

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Speaker 1: Oh yeah, so both of these I can make pretty quick.

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Speaker 1: I mean, the first fight of the night Juliana Miller.

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Speaker 1: She's been off about two years, so hopefully you're going

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Speaker 1: to see some improvements. But really her wing condition to

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Speaker 1: me is submission, and I think Petrovitch greatly overrates her grappling,

347
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Speaker 1: and like I mentioned, some people just like instinctively want

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Speaker 1: to grapple. I think she could be winning the striking

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Speaker 1: exchanges and go for a takedown and just you'd be

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Speaker 1: like why, like, why are you doing this? And find

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Speaker 1: herself in some bad positions because that's what we've seen

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Speaker 1: her do before. And I think Juliana Miller, I mean,

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Speaker 1: if you're even slightly interested in the money line, you

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Speaker 1: absolutely should were taking a shot at plus seven hundred

355
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Speaker 1: on her submissions, maybe grabbing an armbar that's probably most

356
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Speaker 1: likely of them, but just basically petriv is finding herself

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Speaker 1: in a bad position, absolutely worth the seven to one shot.

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Speaker 4: And then my other pop is.

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Speaker 1: The one I like the most, and that is Marina

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Speaker 1: Rodrigue and Jillian Robinson Fight to End by Kotko. I

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Speaker 1: am going to sprinkle Rodriguez ten to one also on KO,

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Speaker 1: maybe a small springgut fifteen to one in rounds one

363
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Speaker 1: or two. But this fight to end by KO is

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Speaker 1: plus five point fifty. And I think Jillian Robinson has

365
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Speaker 1: gotten better at at least trying to you know, get

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Speaker 1: her ground on pound going, you know, causing some damage

367
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Speaker 1: on the ground. I think that part of her game

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Speaker 1: has been as sending otherwise. I mean, I think she's

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Speaker 1: putt stylistically the same type of fighter and Marina Rodriguez,

370
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Speaker 1: this is a girl. I mean, yes, Mackenzie Dern. I

371
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Speaker 1: don't think is as good as wrestlers as far as

372
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Speaker 1: getting the fight to the bat as Robertson. But you know,

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Speaker 1: if she pieced her up for one hundred and forty

374
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Speaker 1: four snif can strikes, I just looked today. I mean,

375
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Speaker 1: Rina Rodriguez has has not opened as an underdog since

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Speaker 1: that durn fight and Amana Hebas fight both you know

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Speaker 1: she won. She end up kingo Hebas in round two,

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Speaker 1: and she's fought Lamos Lissendo Giando Robo. She was a favorite,

379
00:17:58,200 --> 00:18:02,000
Speaker 1: closed a favorite against so I think she's being under

380
00:18:02,600 --> 00:18:05,399
Speaker 1: kind of underlooked in the spot. I think the line

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Speaker 1: is too wide, but I think if Jillian can't get

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Speaker 1: her grappling going, it's pretty clear. Even ninety seconds, two minutes,

383
00:18:12,200 --> 00:18:14,840
Speaker 1: two and a half minutes striking with Rina Rodriguez, you

384
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Speaker 1: know she could lay something in the fight. So whether

385
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Speaker 1: it's granded pound from Jillian or on the feet with Rodriguez,

386
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Speaker 1: I think five to one, I think this fight ends

387
00:18:22,480 --> 00:18:25,440
Speaker 1: by ko tiko. Like you said, more than twenty percent

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Speaker 1: of the time, that's all we need.

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Speaker 4: In the spot.

390
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Speaker 3: Yeah, I really liked that one. I would never in

391
00:18:29,560 --> 00:18:31,960
Speaker 3: a million years have arrived at that on my own,

392
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Speaker 3: but as soon as I saw you put it in

393
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Speaker 3: the sheet, it made a lot of sense. Rina Rodriguez

394
00:18:36,040 --> 00:18:39,359
Speaker 3: very high level striker, so if it stays standing, you'd

395
00:18:39,440 --> 00:18:41,000
Speaker 3: like to think she could get a finish there, and

396
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Speaker 3: Robertson if she gets take downs and looks for ground

397
00:18:44,080 --> 00:18:46,200
Speaker 3: and pound on the top, that one makes a lot

398
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Speaker 3: of sense. I'm not going to spend a lot of

399
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Speaker 3: time talking about Juju Miller. I said somewhere else this

400
00:18:52,480 --> 00:18:55,400
Speaker 3: week that the thesis here is that we haven't seen

401
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Speaker 3: her in a really long time, and like in a

402
00:18:57,560 --> 00:19:00,359
Speaker 3: perfect world, she's been training and getting better, in which

403
00:19:00,359 --> 00:19:04,679
Speaker 3: case she should probably beat Petrovitch. But this is pretty

404
00:19:04,760 --> 00:19:07,399
Speaker 3: low level fight. They're both one and two in the UFC,

405
00:19:07,760 --> 00:19:11,320
Speaker 3: neither has been particularly impressive. I think the only thing

406
00:19:11,320 --> 00:19:13,280
Speaker 3: I'd worry about with the submission prop is that she

407
00:19:13,359 --> 00:19:16,400
Speaker 3: uses ground and pound rather than submission. Like, if she wins,

408
00:19:16,440 --> 00:19:18,159
Speaker 3: I'm pretty sure it'll be on the ground. I'm just

409
00:19:18,240 --> 00:19:21,160
Speaker 3: not sure if it will end in submission or ground

410
00:19:21,200 --> 00:19:22,919
Speaker 3: and pound. So you go the inside the distance and

411
00:19:23,000 --> 00:19:25,520
Speaker 3: drew Ju Miller and still get a big, juicy price.

412
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Speaker 3: And I think hit that same thesis definitely not our

413
00:19:28,880 --> 00:19:33,040
Speaker 3: best bets, though those are pretty long shot odds. You

414
00:19:33,119 --> 00:19:36,240
Speaker 3: have one really interesting angle that I think is super

415
00:19:36,280 --> 00:19:39,400
Speaker 3: sharp on the Jeremy Stevens Mason Jones fight, So start

416
00:19:39,400 --> 00:19:41,719
Speaker 3: with that one. Then we have another one in common.

417
00:19:42,320 --> 00:19:44,840
Speaker 1: Yeah, So these two best bets are definitely the two

418
00:19:44,880 --> 00:19:47,760
Speaker 1: spots that I feel best about on this card. So,

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Speaker 1: Mason Jones, it's actually minus one one on the endle,

420
00:19:52,480 --> 00:19:54,800
Speaker 1: but it's only minus one ten on draftings, and that's

421
00:19:54,840 --> 00:19:59,520
Speaker 1: to win by decision or by submission against Jeremy Stevens

422
00:20:00,080 --> 00:20:02,840
Speaker 1: minus one ten on DraftKings. I mean he's a minus

423
00:20:03,480 --> 00:20:07,120
Speaker 1: up to five to fifty favorite right now, Jeremy Stevens. Yeah,

424
00:20:07,320 --> 00:20:09,080
Speaker 1: as far as any of my favorite, So you're getting

425
00:20:09,080 --> 00:20:11,160
Speaker 1: a pretty big discount. I don't think he's going out

426
00:20:11,160 --> 00:20:14,000
Speaker 1: there to ko Jeremy Stevens, and I don't think he

427
00:20:14,119 --> 00:20:17,280
Speaker 1: should even try to. I mean, he'd be silly not

428
00:20:17,440 --> 00:20:20,240
Speaker 1: to try to implement his grappling. I mean, Jeremy Stevens

429
00:20:20,359 --> 00:20:23,600
Speaker 1: has their boxing and baron knuckle fighting. He just took

430
00:20:23,640 --> 00:20:26,399
Speaker 1: this fight. He called up Dana White and got this fight.

431
00:20:26,440 --> 00:20:28,920
Speaker 1: How much you know how much grappling has Stevens even

432
00:20:28,920 --> 00:20:30,960
Speaker 1: been training. The last time we saw him on the YFC,

433
00:20:31,440 --> 00:20:34,600
Speaker 1: he was submitted by Mitatos Gamrott, who's not some submission artist.

434
00:20:34,760 --> 00:20:36,840
Speaker 1: The last time we saw him in the PFL, Stevens

435
00:20:37,040 --> 00:20:40,840
Speaker 1: was submitted, almost submitted in the first round byrom Triangle

436
00:20:40,840 --> 00:20:44,520
Speaker 1: and then was submitted in the second round. So, you know,

437
00:20:44,560 --> 00:20:46,520
Speaker 1: Mason Jones, if he wants to take the path of

438
00:20:46,680 --> 00:20:49,760
Speaker 1: least resistance, show his improvements, show that he's ready come

439
00:20:49,760 --> 00:20:51,760
Speaker 1: back to UFC. I think he goes out there tries

440
00:20:51,800 --> 00:20:54,199
Speaker 1: to take down Jeremy Stephens if he wants to, you know,

441
00:20:54,240 --> 00:20:57,360
Speaker 1: play with fire and get into this striking match with Stevens.

442
00:20:57,359 --> 00:21:00,560
Speaker 1: I mean, that would be the worst fight. And I

443
00:21:00,560 --> 00:21:02,399
Speaker 1: don't see how his coaches to let him go out

444
00:21:02,400 --> 00:21:04,560
Speaker 1: there and do that, you know, with that type of

445
00:21:04,560 --> 00:21:07,600
Speaker 1: game plan. So you're that angle that he you know,

446
00:21:07,640 --> 00:21:09,960
Speaker 1: grinds Steven's decision or just takes it down and smits him.

447
00:21:10,320 --> 00:21:12,480
Speaker 1: I love that at minus one ten Do you want

448
00:21:12,520 --> 00:21:12,840
Speaker 1: me to.

449
00:21:14,600 --> 00:21:16,960
Speaker 3: I'll jump in on that one real quick. I absolutely

450
00:21:16,960 --> 00:21:18,639
Speaker 3: love that one. I've been trying to figure out a

451
00:21:18,680 --> 00:21:22,439
Speaker 3: ways to bet that Jeremy Stevens last win in a

452
00:21:22,480 --> 00:21:25,720
Speaker 3: combat sport that allowed grappling was more than seven years

453
00:21:25,720 --> 00:21:29,720
Speaker 3: ago where he knocked out Josh Emmitt his last two wins.

454
00:21:29,720 --> 00:21:33,399
Speaker 3: For both knockouts, you know, hasn't landed a takedown in

455
00:21:33,720 --> 00:21:37,560
Speaker 3: competitive MMA in like I don't know a million years

456
00:21:37,760 --> 00:21:41,600
Speaker 3: and Mason Jones left the UFC, but I believe the

457
00:21:41,640 --> 00:21:44,840
Speaker 3: story was he left the UFC like at his own request.

458
00:21:44,920 --> 00:21:47,439
Speaker 3: He was one two and one losses to Mike Davis

459
00:21:47,440 --> 00:21:50,680
Speaker 3: and Ludevit Klein. Nothing wrong with that, and he averages

460
00:21:50,720 --> 00:21:53,760
Speaker 3: over three takedowns for fifteen minutes in his UFC stint.

461
00:21:53,920 --> 00:21:56,119
Speaker 3: So that is a great way to cut some of

462
00:21:56,119 --> 00:21:58,359
Speaker 3: the juice out on Jones, because you don't want to

463
00:21:58,440 --> 00:22:01,200
Speaker 3: pay minus five to seventy five on anything in MMA.

464
00:22:01,720 --> 00:22:04,080
Speaker 3: Sometimes I feel like the odds of a guy, you know,

465
00:22:04,119 --> 00:22:06,879
Speaker 3: tripping over the camera wire on their way into the

466
00:22:06,880 --> 00:22:10,160
Speaker 3: cage and tearing ACL is better than that. So absolutely

467
00:22:10,160 --> 00:22:13,760
Speaker 3: love that angle. It's a fun fight because Jeremy Steevens

468
00:22:13,800 --> 00:22:16,000
Speaker 3: from Iowa, he came back on a one fight deal,

469
00:22:16,200 --> 00:22:18,399
Speaker 3: like literally just to do this one, and then he's

470
00:22:18,440 --> 00:22:20,960
Speaker 3: going to go back to sports where crucially they don't

471
00:22:21,000 --> 00:22:23,200
Speaker 3: allow you to grapple, Like those are the sports he's

472
00:22:23,200 --> 00:22:25,720
Speaker 3: been competing in so I love your point. Probably hasn't

473
00:22:25,760 --> 00:22:28,160
Speaker 3: been training a much. Who knows if he's what he's

474
00:22:28,200 --> 00:22:30,679
Speaker 3: been doing in the off off time, But at almost

475
00:22:30,680 --> 00:22:34,679
Speaker 3: thirty nine years old, don't really see a projection that

476
00:22:34,680 --> 00:22:37,320
Speaker 3: his grappling is going to get better. And then we

477
00:22:37,440 --> 00:22:40,159
Speaker 3: have another fight in common. We're taking a different angle.

478
00:22:40,280 --> 00:22:42,080
Speaker 3: You start with yours, and then I'll jump in where

479
00:22:42,080 --> 00:22:42,480
Speaker 3: I'm going.

480
00:22:42,840 --> 00:22:44,920
Speaker 1: Yeah, this is the one where right off the bat,

481
00:22:45,880 --> 00:22:48,720
Speaker 1: this has jumped out to me. The under the under

482
00:22:48,720 --> 00:22:51,760
Speaker 1: two and a half rounds of Dino Rodriguez Santio Pontinibbio

483
00:22:51,920 --> 00:22:53,760
Speaker 1: is plus twenty. I'm just going to take plus one

484
00:22:53,920 --> 00:22:56,960
Speaker 1: forty that the fight does not go to decision two

485
00:22:57,080 --> 00:23:00,520
Speaker 1: older fighters. I mean, let's be honest. Pontinibbios to me

486
00:23:00,600 --> 00:23:03,680
Speaker 1: is basically gone. In his last fight versus Harris, a

487
00:23:04,080 --> 00:23:08,560
Speaker 1: Carlton Harris basically was finished. Amazing comeback. And the thing

488
00:23:08,720 --> 00:23:10,880
Speaker 1: I love about this is that even when he's hurt,

489
00:23:11,280 --> 00:23:13,840
Speaker 1: even when he's rocked, I mean, he's still coming forward

490
00:23:13,840 --> 00:23:16,320
Speaker 1: and throwing punches, and you know he pulled off the comeback,

491
00:23:16,520 --> 00:23:18,600
Speaker 1: but he's just as easily could be ko. I feel

492
00:23:18,600 --> 00:23:23,560
Speaker 1: like his durability has waned and decreased significantly, and you

493
00:23:23,680 --> 00:23:26,960
Speaker 1: might and I actually feel like Daniel Rodriguez is getting

494
00:23:26,960 --> 00:23:29,480
Speaker 1: to that point while he didn't he got finished by

495
00:23:29,640 --> 00:23:33,480
Speaker 1: Chidle Gary. You know, no disrespect there. But okay, Gastolin,

496
00:23:34,040 --> 00:23:37,000
Speaker 1: he thought didn't get finished. That might seem impressive. Gaslin

497
00:23:37,040 --> 00:23:41,160
Speaker 1: hasn't won by knockout since twenty seventeen against Michael Bisbee,

498
00:23:41,440 --> 00:23:43,520
Speaker 1: so it's not like Gasolin has been finishing guys. So

499
00:23:43,560 --> 00:23:46,720
Speaker 1: he didn't finish d rod and Alex Morono another guy

500
00:23:47,119 --> 00:23:50,639
Speaker 1: that you know doesn't have big power, but Morono was

501
00:23:50,720 --> 00:23:54,800
Speaker 1: lighting him up with overhands. Right, Daniel Rodriguez gets in

502
00:23:54,840 --> 00:23:57,719
Speaker 1: the pocket, you know, takes one to give. One throws

503
00:23:57,720 --> 00:23:59,800
Speaker 1: his you know, throws his strikes and he doesn't. It's

504
00:23:59,840 --> 00:24:01,600
Speaker 1: not he's moving out of the way. I mean, I

505
00:24:01,640 --> 00:24:04,520
Speaker 1: would be shocked if these guys aren't in some wild

506
00:24:04,560 --> 00:24:07,119
Speaker 1: exchanges maybe early on, or feel each other out. But

507
00:24:07,200 --> 00:24:11,120
Speaker 1: I mean Ponsinibbio has for somebody that has his chin

508
00:24:11,240 --> 00:24:14,080
Speaker 1: seems like it's it's going. The guy is still very aggressive.

509
00:24:14,320 --> 00:24:16,320
Speaker 1: I mean even when he's hurt, and I feel like

510
00:24:16,800 --> 00:24:18,879
Speaker 1: someone is landing something in this fight to put the

511
00:24:18,920 --> 00:24:21,359
Speaker 1: other guy away. It's a high variance fight. I don't

512
00:24:21,400 --> 00:24:23,640
Speaker 1: know who's gonna win. I mean know, if I if

513
00:24:23,640 --> 00:24:26,480
Speaker 1: I had to pick, I think Rodriguez has looked a

514
00:24:26,480 --> 00:24:30,320
Speaker 1: little slower, but I think the durability has gone further

515
00:24:30,640 --> 00:24:33,040
Speaker 1: for Ponzinibio. So I'm gonna stay away from that. To

516
00:24:33,040 --> 00:24:35,359
Speaker 1: say one guy is getting the KO, I don't know

517
00:24:35,400 --> 00:24:37,400
Speaker 1: who it's gonna be, but plus one forty, I'm I'm

518
00:24:37,440 --> 00:24:37,920
Speaker 1: all over this.

519
00:24:38,600 --> 00:24:41,240
Speaker 3: Yeah, that makes it some of sense too. I think

520
00:24:41,280 --> 00:24:44,600
Speaker 3: the gist of it is all the power belongs to Ponzinebio.

521
00:24:44,880 --> 00:24:48,000
Speaker 3: I don't know when the last time Rodriguez dropped somebody,

522
00:24:48,040 --> 00:24:52,120
Speaker 3: but it's been a long time. His last knockdown was one, two, three,

523
00:24:52,320 --> 00:24:55,480
Speaker 3: like ten fights ago for Daniel Rodriguez. So but yeah,

524
00:24:55,520 --> 00:24:59,320
Speaker 3: Ponzinebio tends to lend themselves fights like that, both of it.

525
00:24:59,400 --> 00:25:01,320
Speaker 3: He's two and two over his last four. Both of

526
00:25:01,359 --> 00:25:04,439
Speaker 3: his last two wins for knockouts. Both of those fights

527
00:25:04,440 --> 00:25:07,080
Speaker 3: he got dropped first and then came back and finished

528
00:25:07,119 --> 00:25:09,520
Speaker 3: the other guy. So it's it's almost the plan at

529
00:25:09,560 --> 00:25:11,920
Speaker 3: this point, like we're almost doing the Homer Simpsons strategy

530
00:25:12,359 --> 00:25:15,040
Speaker 3: from that episode million years ago. The Simpsons where he

531
00:25:15,080 --> 00:25:19,080
Speaker 3: fought as a boxer. But I am on the Ponzinibio side.

532
00:25:19,280 --> 00:25:21,360
Speaker 3: There's a couple of reasons here. The first is kind

533
00:25:21,359 --> 00:25:23,719
Speaker 3: of just a clear system play. They're both two and

534
00:25:23,720 --> 00:25:26,960
Speaker 3: three in their last five. Ponzi has two knockout wins

535
00:25:27,000 --> 00:25:29,720
Speaker 3: and two split decision losses in that time span, so

536
00:25:29,880 --> 00:25:33,080
Speaker 3: like arguably could be four and one over his last five.

537
00:25:33,520 --> 00:25:36,520
Speaker 3: Daniel Rodriguez also two and five in his last they're

538
00:25:36,520 --> 00:25:39,560
Speaker 3: two and three in his last five, has been finished twice,

539
00:25:39,640 --> 00:25:42,000
Speaker 3: and both of his wins for split decisions. So if

540
00:25:42,000 --> 00:25:44,359
Speaker 3: we're just banking on some variants or some you know,

541
00:25:44,800 --> 00:25:48,920
Speaker 3: judging correction, Ponzinibbio is the side here, and especially when

542
00:25:48,920 --> 00:25:51,560
Speaker 3: he throws so much harder than Dee Rod, because that's

543
00:25:51,560 --> 00:25:53,760
Speaker 3: gonna play up to the judges if we get there,

544
00:25:53,800 --> 00:25:57,000
Speaker 3: which I agree with you isn't the likeliest, And I

545
00:25:57,200 --> 00:26:01,160
Speaker 3: think if either of them are going to grapple's probably Ponzenebio.

546
00:26:01,880 --> 00:26:04,080
Speaker 3: Their career stats are about the same, but we've seen

547
00:26:04,080 --> 00:26:07,080
Speaker 3: more of it from Panzinibbio in recent fight. He also

548
00:26:07,080 --> 00:26:10,280
Speaker 3: trains an American top team. I trust them in terms

549
00:26:10,320 --> 00:26:12,919
Speaker 3: of game planning more than the Tenth Planet gym that

550
00:26:13,000 --> 00:26:15,720
Speaker 3: Daniel Rodriguez trains at. I have no idea why we're

551
00:26:15,720 --> 00:26:18,600
Speaker 3: training at Tenth Planet gyms here in twenty twenty five.

552
00:26:18,760 --> 00:26:21,399
Speaker 3: As MMA fighters like, they're great if you're gonna go grapple,

553
00:26:21,480 --> 00:26:24,080
Speaker 3: but I don't know what we're doing with that. They're

554
00:26:24,080 --> 00:26:26,400
Speaker 3: both about the same age. As you pointed out, both

555
00:26:26,400 --> 00:26:29,439
Speaker 3: have durability concerned. I just trust Ponzenibio to find the

556
00:26:29,440 --> 00:26:33,280
Speaker 3: button more, if not even first. I was gonna say first,

557
00:26:33,280 --> 00:26:35,399
Speaker 3: but first is not accurate because he might get dropped

558
00:26:35,400 --> 00:26:38,560
Speaker 3: first and then figure it out after we hit on

559
00:26:38,720 --> 00:26:40,960
Speaker 3: most of the fights on the card. Is there anything

560
00:26:41,000 --> 00:26:43,399
Speaker 3: else that you're betting wanted to bring up? I know

561
00:26:43,440 --> 00:26:46,080
Speaker 3: we didn't get to Montel Jackson, Daniel Marcos.

562
00:26:46,400 --> 00:26:46,600
Speaker 4: Oh.

563
00:26:46,640 --> 00:26:48,119
Speaker 3: I have one other one I was going to get to.

564
00:26:48,160 --> 00:26:51,800
Speaker 3: That was my mistake. Gast'n Bilanos by knockout at plus

565
00:26:51,800 --> 00:26:55,640
Speaker 3: three hundred. He's the one fighting Kwang Li. You kind

566
00:26:55,640 --> 00:26:57,840
Speaker 3: of undersld it a little bit, but gast On Bilanos

567
00:26:57,880 --> 00:27:01,520
Speaker 3: was a Muay Thai world champion. Can't grap Kwang Lee

568
00:27:01,680 --> 00:27:05,719
Speaker 3: is a very good grappler, can't strike if Blonos is

569
00:27:05,760 --> 00:27:08,880
Speaker 3: gonna win that's how so at plus three hundred, I'd

570
00:27:08,920 --> 00:27:11,399
Speaker 3: be fine even playing that with Lee's money line and

571
00:27:11,400 --> 00:27:16,280
Speaker 3: have plus money on both sides. I'm not very impressed

572
00:27:16,320 --> 00:27:19,160
Speaker 3: by Quang Lee striking at all. That's been pretty bad

573
00:27:19,200 --> 00:27:22,199
Speaker 3: so far in his UFC career. And yeah, so I

574
00:27:22,240 --> 00:27:24,960
Speaker 3: agree with you basically on the money line side. But

575
00:27:25,000 --> 00:27:27,800
Speaker 3: he got knocked down and beat up pretty bad in

576
00:27:27,880 --> 00:27:31,359
Speaker 3: his first like their second UFC fight against Jiaolong, the

577
00:27:31,440 --> 00:27:34,240
Speaker 3: road to the UFC prospect, I don't think very highly

578
00:27:34,280 --> 00:27:36,920
Speaker 3: of those road to the UFC guys. I'm very worried

579
00:27:36,920 --> 00:27:39,920
Speaker 3: about the grappling defense for Bolanos because he doesn't have

580
00:27:40,000 --> 00:27:43,879
Speaker 3: any but very binary fight that's his main win condition.

581
00:27:44,400 --> 00:27:46,560
Speaker 3: So with that, I believe we've covered all but two

582
00:27:46,560 --> 00:27:49,520
Speaker 3: of the fights. You got anything on Tate Santos or

583
00:27:50,160 --> 00:27:50,959
Speaker 3: Jackson Marcos.

584
00:27:51,040 --> 00:27:53,040
Speaker 1: Yeah, last thing I want to say is one more

585
00:27:53,040 --> 00:27:55,760
Speaker 1: thing to that Positivia Rodriguez fight. This kind of gives

586
00:27:55,800 --> 00:27:58,080
Speaker 1: me the vibes. You know, a cou week show, Naki

587
00:27:58,200 --> 00:28:01,080
Speaker 1: kail Don mcrayes. I wrote up the fight went in

588
00:28:01,160 --> 00:28:03,920
Speaker 1: by Kyo Tiko also plus one forty. I mean Krylof

589
00:28:03,960 --> 00:28:07,719
Speaker 1: hadn't been KOed. I mean, it's been a decade ish.

590
00:28:08,000 --> 00:28:09,440
Speaker 1: I mean, and he got hit once on the button,

591
00:28:09,520 --> 00:28:11,960
Speaker 1: it was over. And then even last week Nickole Delby,

592
00:28:12,240 --> 00:28:14,480
Speaker 1: they said it a million times. He hasn't been finished

593
00:28:14,480 --> 00:28:17,440
Speaker 1: in twenty nine thirty professional fights. I was on Rainy

594
00:28:17,480 --> 00:28:19,920
Speaker 1: round ko, he was KAO. So I'm just you know,

595
00:28:20,280 --> 00:28:22,960
Speaker 1: just because these guys have been super durable throughout their career,

596
00:28:23,560 --> 00:28:26,119
Speaker 1: specifically Rodriguez, doesn't mean he's going to be able to

597
00:28:26,320 --> 00:28:29,000
Speaker 1: take the firepower from Pozito. So I just want to

598
00:28:29,000 --> 00:28:32,520
Speaker 1: add that it's Misha Tate. I'm gonna bet the line's

599
00:28:32,520 --> 00:28:34,359
Speaker 1: getting a little too little wide. But if I can

600
00:28:34,440 --> 00:28:37,159
Speaker 1: get it minus one forty minus one thirty eight ish,

601
00:28:37,240 --> 00:28:38,920
Speaker 1: I'm good with that. I don't think she wants to

602
00:28:38,960 --> 00:28:41,040
Speaker 1: take damage at this stage in a career. She looks

603
00:28:41,080 --> 00:28:43,200
Speaker 1: like she's in good shape. We saw her last time out.

604
00:28:43,320 --> 00:28:45,880
Speaker 1: I guess Julia Villa. I mean, she was shooting takedowns

605
00:28:46,200 --> 00:28:48,840
Speaker 1: literally within the first ten seconds of each round. There's

606
00:28:48,920 --> 00:28:52,640
Speaker 1: no reason she shouldn't do that here Versusos Santos forty

607
00:28:52,800 --> 00:28:56,280
Speaker 1: ish forty three percenter. So takedown defense hasn't really been

608
00:28:56,320 --> 00:28:59,000
Speaker 1: able to you know, stop takedowns got taken out by

609
00:28:59,040 --> 00:29:02,520
Speaker 1: Holly Holm. Times lost the decision there. I think Misa

610
00:29:02,560 --> 00:29:05,240
Speaker 1: Tate's path is super clear to win here, and she's

611
00:29:05,280 --> 00:29:07,240
Speaker 1: not going to mess around. We know that, so I'll

612
00:29:07,240 --> 00:29:08,520
Speaker 1: back her up a minus one forty.

613
00:29:08,920 --> 00:29:11,080
Speaker 3: Yeah, I said earlier in the week, I was looking

614
00:29:11,120 --> 00:29:14,240
Speaker 3: to bet Jana Santo's assuming that the line would blow

615
00:29:14,280 --> 00:29:16,880
Speaker 3: out just because it's Mesha Tate, former champion blah blah blah.

616
00:29:17,080 --> 00:29:19,520
Speaker 3: That hasn't really happened. Like I would be on the

617
00:29:19,640 --> 00:29:22,040
Speaker 3: Santos side if it gets to plus one forty plus

618
00:29:22,120 --> 00:29:24,920
Speaker 3: one fifty, And that's because the only people Misia Tate

619
00:29:25,040 --> 00:29:27,360
Speaker 3: has beaten in the last eight years were pretty much

620
00:29:27,440 --> 00:29:30,960
Speaker 3: already retired before they fought Misha Tate, like one foot

621
00:29:31,000 --> 00:29:33,000
Speaker 3: out the door, didn't really want to be there. We

622
00:29:33,080 --> 00:29:36,280
Speaker 3: haven't seen her against anyone even remotely active win. With

623
00:29:36,480 --> 00:29:39,360
Speaker 3: that said, Gianna Santos is not good and has never

624
00:29:39,440 --> 00:29:42,200
Speaker 3: had good takedown defense, so it's a tough stylistic matchup.

625
00:29:42,800 --> 00:29:44,520
Speaker 3: Keep an eye on that, Like you could even take

626
00:29:44,640 --> 00:29:47,440
Speaker 3: the Tate side now and see if that name recognition

627
00:29:47,520 --> 00:29:50,720
Speaker 3: pushes the line. That hasn't happened though, And then the

628
00:29:50,760 --> 00:29:53,600
Speaker 3: only other fight we didn't touch on was I believe

629
00:29:54,240 --> 00:29:58,200
Speaker 3: Montel Jackson versus Daniel Marcos weird fight Marcos or I'm

630
00:29:58,240 --> 00:30:01,480
Speaker 3: sorry Jackson has basically fought once per year and then

631
00:30:01,600 --> 00:30:05,640
Speaker 3: just absolutely obliterated low level competition when he does. Now

632
00:30:05,720 --> 00:30:08,200
Speaker 3: he's getting a step up in competition against Daniel Marcos.

633
00:30:08,960 --> 00:30:10,240
Speaker 3: I think this is a good spot where if you

634
00:30:10,280 --> 00:30:14,120
Speaker 3: wanted to bet Jackson by knockout, that's a plus three

635
00:30:14,120 --> 00:30:16,560
Speaker 3: p fifty or as high as plus four hundred at FanDuel.

636
00:30:17,120 --> 00:30:20,000
Speaker 3: That should be closer to his money line odds, I think,

637
00:30:20,760 --> 00:30:23,400
Speaker 3: And then from a money line side, I would take

638
00:30:23,480 --> 00:30:26,360
Speaker 3: Daniel Marcos. But no strong thoughts on that might bet

639
00:30:26,440 --> 00:30:28,200
Speaker 3: that be sure to follow me in the app to

640
00:30:28,280 --> 00:30:30,560
Speaker 3: see any thoughts on that before we get out of here.

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00:30:30,640 --> 00:30:33,000
Speaker 1: John No, I mean I think you kind of you

642
00:30:33,080 --> 00:30:35,160
Speaker 1: kind of covered it. I think Marcos, if I had

643
00:30:35,200 --> 00:30:37,200
Speaker 1: to bet money line, I would take him. You know,

644
00:30:37,320 --> 00:30:39,120
Speaker 1: if Jackson can't knock him out, it's probably going to

645
00:30:39,160 --> 00:30:43,000
Speaker 1: be really closely contestified as Marcos fights have been. So

646
00:30:43,280 --> 00:30:46,000
Speaker 1: you know, I probably didn't think he won, but you know,

647
00:30:46,240 --> 00:30:48,960
Speaker 1: just if it goes three rounds, you know, I would

648
00:30:49,040 --> 00:30:50,520
Speaker 1: like to have the plus money in my back pocket.

649
00:30:50,560 --> 00:30:53,240
Speaker 1: That's that's, you know, the gist of the breakdown.

650
00:30:53,600 --> 00:30:56,280
Speaker 3: The other weird thing for me on Jackson is he

651
00:30:56,440 --> 00:30:59,280
Speaker 3: is I think they flashed the stat in his last

652
00:30:59,320 --> 00:31:01,480
Speaker 3: fight there was the tallest band weight in the division.

653
00:31:01,480 --> 00:31:03,200
Speaker 3: I don't know if they've signed someone taller, but he's

654
00:31:03,560 --> 00:31:05,720
Speaker 3: very tall for the division at five to ten. He's

655
00:31:05,800 --> 00:31:08,440
Speaker 3: now thirty three, and you got to think that weightcut

656
00:31:08,520 --> 00:31:11,040
Speaker 3: continues to take more and more out of you, especially

657
00:31:11,080 --> 00:31:14,440
Speaker 3: in terms of like endurance and durability. So I'm worried

658
00:31:14,520 --> 00:31:18,160
Speaker 3: for him as he's getting to his mid thirties for division,

659
00:31:18,200 --> 00:31:20,560
Speaker 3: he's already too big for I believe he made weight,

660
00:31:20,840 --> 00:31:23,160
Speaker 3: but even so, that's gonna take more and more out

661
00:31:23,160 --> 00:31:25,040
Speaker 3: of you. So if you don't get that quick knockout

662
00:31:25,520 --> 00:31:28,080
Speaker 3: makes it a little bit more concerning, but that's gonna

663
00:31:28,080 --> 00:31:30,240
Speaker 3: do it. For our UFC betting preview, you can find

664
00:31:30,280 --> 00:31:34,040
Speaker 3: more UFC betting content, including my full preview for rdrbo

665
00:31:34,160 --> 00:31:37,160
Speaker 3: Nickel at Actionnetwork dot com, as well as John and

666
00:31:37,240 --> 00:31:39,440
Speaker 3: I both in the Best Bets. If you'd like to

667
00:31:39,520 --> 00:31:42,240
Speaker 3: instantly tail some of the bets we discussed on today's show,

668
00:31:42,560 --> 00:31:44,920
Speaker 3: look for the quick slip links in the podcast in

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00:31:45,040 --> 00:31:48,479
Speaker 3: video description, or visit actionnetwork dot com slash bet now,

670
00:31:48,720 --> 00:31:51,640
Speaker 3: don't forget to download the free, award winning Action Network

671
00:31:51,720 --> 00:31:54,240
Speaker 3: app and sign up for Action Pro for immediate access

672
00:31:54,360 --> 00:31:57,760
Speaker 3: to expert picks and analysis from John and I Seanzillo

673
00:31:57,800 --> 00:31:59,640
Speaker 3: wherever he is right now and all of our Action

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00:31:59,680 --> 00:32:02,360
Speaker 3: Exit best of luck, with all your best this weekend,

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00:32:02,600 --> 00:32:04,120
Speaker 3: enjoy the violence, and thanks for listening.

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00:32:13,120 --> 00:32:17,600
Speaker 1: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

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00:32:17,680 --> 00:32:20,440
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