1 00:00:00,160 --> 00:00:05,200 Speaker 1: It's time to place your bets. Let's talk to the pros. 2 00:00:21,840 --> 00:00:24,240 Speaker 1: Welcome in everybody to betting pros. It's time to place 3 00:00:24,280 --> 00:00:27,240 Speaker 1: your bets. It's me, Joey Pa Joe Piezopia. It is 4 00:00:27,400 --> 00:00:30,320 Speaker 1: almost week three in the NFL. We've still got two 5 00:00:30,360 --> 00:00:32,879 Speaker 1: games left in Week two, but that won't stop us 6 00:00:32,880 --> 00:00:35,599 Speaker 1: from looking ahead. No, no, no, because the process never 7 00:00:35,640 --> 00:00:38,159 Speaker 1: stops here at betting Pros. To help me today is 8 00:00:38,200 --> 00:00:41,280 Speaker 1: Matthew Friedman and Pat Fitzmorris to break it all down, 9 00:00:41,800 --> 00:00:44,559 Speaker 1: take some of what we saw in a wacky and 10 00:00:44,600 --> 00:00:47,680 Speaker 1: weird and wild week two and try to apply it 11 00:00:47,720 --> 00:00:49,720 Speaker 1: to what we see ahead in week three when it 12 00:00:49,720 --> 00:00:52,199 Speaker 1: comes to the betting odds. Before we get on with 13 00:00:52,280 --> 00:00:55,000 Speaker 1: those things, I want to remind everybody, of course as well, 14 00:00:55,360 --> 00:00:57,920 Speaker 1: that look, now is the time make sure you go 15 00:00:58,000 --> 00:01:00,720 Speaker 1: over to Sleeper. 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So go check out the over 34 00:01:42,880 --> 00:01:44,640 Speaker 1: under game over on Sleeper and have fun with your 35 00:01:44,680 --> 00:01:47,240 Speaker 1: friends and make some money at the same time over on. 36 00:01:47,160 --> 00:01:48,000 Speaker 2: Your mobile device. 37 00:01:48,160 --> 00:01:51,440 Speaker 1: Just join the listener group on Sleeper at Sleeper and 38 00:01:51,800 --> 00:01:54,480 Speaker 1: download the app today and automatically match your first deposit 39 00:01:54,560 --> 00:01:56,400 Speaker 1: up to one hundred dollars when you use that promo 40 00:01:56,440 --> 00:01:59,520 Speaker 1: code betting Pros against one word betting Pros at Sleeper 41 00:01:59,560 --> 00:02:02,000 Speaker 1: dot slash Betting Pros. You could check it out and 42 00:02:02,040 --> 00:02:05,320 Speaker 1: get that one hundred dollars deposit match. Gentlemen, certainly a 43 00:02:05,440 --> 00:02:08,480 Speaker 1: strange Week two. We saw a lot of comebacks, a 44 00:02:08,520 --> 00:02:13,119 Speaker 1: lot of improbable victories. So Friedman, after we've got week two, 45 00:02:13,400 --> 00:02:16,560 Speaker 1: just about in the books, what's your biggest takeaway from 46 00:02:16,560 --> 00:02:17,359 Speaker 1: what you've seen so far? 47 00:02:18,720 --> 00:02:20,440 Speaker 3: Well, two takeaways. 48 00:02:20,560 --> 00:02:24,760 Speaker 4: One, you know, we are on fire with the spreads 49 00:02:25,320 --> 00:02:29,200 Speaker 4: at betting pro, so that's nice. We are not on 50 00:02:29,280 --> 00:02:31,200 Speaker 4: fire when it comes to the totals. And I think 51 00:02:31,200 --> 00:02:34,080 Speaker 4: a lot of assumptions entering the season were that we 52 00:02:34,080 --> 00:02:38,120 Speaker 4: would see shootout games, you know, the idea that you know, 53 00:02:38,240 --> 00:02:43,200 Speaker 4: defensive defensive penalties would help teams extend drives. We haven't 54 00:02:43,240 --> 00:02:45,200 Speaker 4: really seen that play out. So we've seen a lot 55 00:02:45,240 --> 00:02:49,640 Speaker 4: of unders hit and we've seen the books aggressively move 56 00:02:50,160 --> 00:02:52,800 Speaker 4: their totals down over the past couple of weeks. And 57 00:02:52,840 --> 00:02:55,040 Speaker 4: so that is something that we need to catch up 58 00:02:55,080 --> 00:02:58,760 Speaker 4: to and we'll see if unders continue to be the 59 00:02:59,120 --> 00:03:03,120 Speaker 4: sharp side. But so far, some really intriguing games. A 60 00:03:03,120 --> 00:03:05,960 Speaker 4: lot of chaos, however, a lot of chaos. 61 00:03:06,000 --> 00:03:08,519 Speaker 1: Well, you know the one thing, you know, Pat, you 62 00:03:08,520 --> 00:03:10,720 Speaker 1: could speak about this too. Let's go to you on this. 63 00:03:10,960 --> 00:03:13,040 Speaker 1: It's a lot of quarterbacks who have changed teams, a 64 00:03:13,040 --> 00:03:15,079 Speaker 1: lot of new head coaches, a lot of new systems. 65 00:03:15,480 --> 00:03:17,760 Speaker 1: It takes some time, and we Russell Wilson's on new spot, 66 00:03:17,800 --> 00:03:19,359 Speaker 1: Matt Ryan's on a new spot, like you've got a 67 00:03:19,360 --> 00:03:21,400 Speaker 1: lot of these guys, Carson Wentz is on new spot. 68 00:03:21,760 --> 00:03:24,080 Speaker 1: I think that there wasn't enough of a learning curve 69 00:03:24,120 --> 00:03:26,520 Speaker 1: potentially built into some of these offenses. Now some have 70 00:03:26,760 --> 00:03:29,959 Speaker 1: hit the ground running, others not so much. But do 71 00:03:30,000 --> 00:03:31,160 Speaker 1: you think that has a lot to do with that 72 00:03:31,200 --> 00:03:34,920 Speaker 1: combination of new coaches, new systems, new qbs, and new personnel. 73 00:03:34,960 --> 00:03:36,520 Speaker 1: Even for a lot of these teams as well, we've 74 00:03:36,520 --> 00:03:39,240 Speaker 1: seen a lot of changeover on the offensive side year 75 00:03:39,280 --> 00:03:39,760 Speaker 1: over year. 76 00:03:40,200 --> 00:03:41,040 Speaker 5: Yeah, it might show. 77 00:03:41,080 --> 00:03:43,960 Speaker 6: Know of the quarterbacks you mentioned, Russell Wilson, Matt Ryan, 78 00:03:44,000 --> 00:03:46,520 Speaker 6: and Carson Wentz. Who'd have thought that Carson Wentz would 79 00:03:46,520 --> 00:03:48,760 Speaker 6: look the best coming out of the gates in week two? 80 00:03:48,840 --> 00:03:51,160 Speaker 5: I mean, yes, he has the Lions. 81 00:03:51,240 --> 00:03:52,280 Speaker 2: Help the Lions, the. 82 00:03:53,000 --> 00:03:55,680 Speaker 6: Lions, they do help and and he has thrown three 83 00:03:55,680 --> 00:04:00,480 Speaker 6: interceptions in two weeks, but he's also thrown six touchdown passes. Meanwhile, 84 00:04:00,560 --> 00:04:04,200 Speaker 6: like you know, Matt Ryan, Yes he was missing Michael Pittman, 85 00:04:04,560 --> 00:04:08,000 Speaker 6: but that just doesn't excuse the sort of performance he 86 00:04:08,040 --> 00:04:11,960 Speaker 6: had yesterday, Russell Wilson, I mean getting booed now twice 87 00:04:12,040 --> 00:04:15,200 Speaker 6: by the Seattle crowd and his own home crowd in 88 00:04:15,240 --> 00:04:15,920 Speaker 6: two games. 89 00:04:15,960 --> 00:04:18,599 Speaker 5: So really interesting so far. Yeah, some of. 90 00:04:18,600 --> 00:04:22,600 Speaker 6: These teams just do not look I mean Indian Arizona 91 00:04:22,680 --> 00:04:26,040 Speaker 6: like I thought these were playoff contending teams and both 92 00:04:26,080 --> 00:04:27,919 Speaker 6: have just looked like absolute trash. 93 00:04:28,160 --> 00:04:29,960 Speaker 5: Although the Cardinals got to win, yes. 94 00:04:29,920 --> 00:04:31,680 Speaker 1: Because the Cardinals did find a way to win that 95 00:04:31,760 --> 00:04:34,520 Speaker 1: game though, But yeah, you're not wrong. I think there's 96 00:04:34,560 --> 00:04:36,839 Speaker 1: a lot of tightening up to do. We're gonna tighten 97 00:04:36,880 --> 00:04:39,080 Speaker 1: things up here in week three, so let's get after it. 98 00:04:39,160 --> 00:04:40,560 Speaker 1: Let's talk about the picks, and by the way, at 99 00:04:40,560 --> 00:04:42,600 Speaker 1: the end of the show, we'll get the favorite early 100 00:04:42,640 --> 00:04:45,000 Speaker 1: bets from Matt and Pat here as well. Let's start 101 00:04:45,040 --> 00:04:48,279 Speaker 1: with the first game, which is the Pittsburgh Steelers going 102 00:04:48,360 --> 00:04:50,599 Speaker 1: to Cleveland in this one, so we'll see if Brown 103 00:04:50,600 --> 00:04:52,920 Speaker 1: and the Elf makes a second appearance after that terrible 104 00:04:52,960 --> 00:04:55,240 Speaker 1: first loss in the home game with browning the Elf 105 00:04:55,240 --> 00:04:58,240 Speaker 1: on the field. The Steelers are three and a half 106 00:04:58,320 --> 00:05:01,560 Speaker 1: point underdogs going into even The number for this game 107 00:05:01,640 --> 00:05:03,840 Speaker 1: is just forty. That seems about right to me. Pat, 108 00:05:03,960 --> 00:05:05,920 Speaker 1: what's your first take on this contest. 109 00:05:06,080 --> 00:05:08,680 Speaker 6: Oh that it seems like a circle the Wagon game 110 00:05:08,760 --> 00:05:11,680 Speaker 6: for the Steelers. Joe, but the wagon at this point 111 00:05:11,839 --> 00:05:14,760 Speaker 6: is made of rotted wood. The wheels are rickety and 112 00:05:14,880 --> 00:05:17,960 Speaker 6: close to falling off. I mean, the Steelers offense was 113 00:05:18,000 --> 00:05:21,159 Speaker 6: so bad yesterday five point one yards per attempt for 114 00:05:21,839 --> 00:05:25,440 Speaker 6: Mitch Trubisky. Let's see on the ground for Naji fifteen 115 00:05:25,520 --> 00:05:28,640 Speaker 6: for forty nine. Their longest play was twenty three yards. 116 00:05:28,800 --> 00:05:31,280 Speaker 6: I mean, this offense just has nothing there and they 117 00:05:31,279 --> 00:05:34,800 Speaker 6: don't have TJ. Watt on defense. So and you know, 118 00:05:35,520 --> 00:05:40,000 Speaker 6: three and a half point underdogs for the mighty perennially 119 00:05:40,360 --> 00:05:45,000 Speaker 6: respected Pittsburgh Steelers going into Cleveland with Jacoby Burssett as 120 00:05:45,040 --> 00:05:48,240 Speaker 6: their quarterback, and they're more than a field goal underdog, 121 00:05:48,640 --> 00:05:51,400 Speaker 6: and like it doesn't seem real far out of like 122 00:05:51,480 --> 00:05:52,560 Speaker 6: to me, right, you know? 123 00:05:52,760 --> 00:05:54,919 Speaker 1: So when you look at this line, I mean, do 124 00:05:55,000 --> 00:05:57,480 Speaker 1: you see that same thing? I mean he mentioned a 125 00:05:57,480 --> 00:05:59,719 Speaker 1: circle of the wagons game for the Steelers. How about 126 00:06:00,040 --> 00:06:02,040 Speaker 1: you just lost to the Jets and the home opener. 127 00:06:02,520 --> 00:06:04,720 Speaker 1: Isn't that kind of where the wagons made? They might 128 00:06:04,760 --> 00:06:06,360 Speaker 1: have been set on fire by Joe Flack on the 129 00:06:06,400 --> 00:06:07,159 Speaker 1: way out of that building. 130 00:06:07,520 --> 00:06:10,640 Speaker 4: Yeah, it's it's a weird situation where the Steelers game 131 00:06:10,720 --> 00:06:13,000 Speaker 4: yesterday was one of the rare games where I thought like, 132 00:06:13,800 --> 00:06:17,120 Speaker 4: coming out of it, both the Steelers and their opponents 133 00:06:17,360 --> 00:06:19,960 Speaker 4: were like the worst for having played in that game 134 00:06:20,040 --> 00:06:21,080 Speaker 4: in terms of, like how I. 135 00:06:21,320 --> 00:06:24,200 Speaker 1: The end of Billy Madison after he takes that test, right, 136 00:06:24,880 --> 00:06:27,719 Speaker 1: everyone's dummer for having watched this and been here. 137 00:06:27,880 --> 00:06:31,000 Speaker 4: Yeah, but it's not like Cleveland played all that well either, 138 00:06:31,080 --> 00:06:33,040 Speaker 4: So I don't know. I mean, Pat, we were, we 139 00:06:33,040 --> 00:06:36,039 Speaker 4: were on the Steelers last week, and like the whole week, 140 00:06:36,040 --> 00:06:38,320 Speaker 4: we're like, you know, why is the market too low 141 00:06:38,440 --> 00:06:39,240 Speaker 4: on the Steelers? 142 00:06:39,640 --> 00:06:39,760 Speaker 1: Uh? 143 00:06:39,880 --> 00:06:42,599 Speaker 3: Maybe we're just too high on them, and we're I think. 144 00:06:42,440 --> 00:06:44,880 Speaker 4: We're in a similar situation again this week where this 145 00:06:45,000 --> 00:06:47,479 Speaker 4: line is three and a half. You know, in the 146 00:06:47,520 --> 00:06:49,920 Speaker 4: look ahead market it was three. I thought there would 147 00:06:49,920 --> 00:06:53,240 Speaker 4: be some value there, and my projections I have this 148 00:06:53,400 --> 00:06:57,800 Speaker 4: as Cleveland favored by point seventy five points. So I 149 00:06:57,839 --> 00:07:01,280 Speaker 4: see value on Pittsburgh in this spot. And I hate 150 00:07:01,320 --> 00:07:03,320 Speaker 4: to say that because I do think that this team 151 00:07:03,400 --> 00:07:06,400 Speaker 4: looks disgusting, but so to the Browns. You know, Mike 152 00:07:06,440 --> 00:07:09,120 Speaker 4: Tomlin as an underdog forty six twenty three and three 153 00:07:09,120 --> 00:07:13,480 Speaker 4: against the spread. Absolute Baller record in Division fifty one 154 00:07:13,600 --> 00:07:17,080 Speaker 4: thirty seven and three against the spread and against Brown's 155 00:07:17,120 --> 00:07:20,720 Speaker 4: head coach Kevin Stefanski four to zero against the spread, 156 00:07:20,760 --> 00:07:22,320 Speaker 4: three and one on the money line. 157 00:07:22,360 --> 00:07:25,320 Speaker 3: So I have to go. I have to go with 158 00:07:25,360 --> 00:07:26,440 Speaker 3: the Steelers in this spot. 159 00:07:26,600 --> 00:07:29,480 Speaker 4: But it is another one of those kind of disgusting 160 00:07:29,560 --> 00:07:32,000 Speaker 4: games like we've had for the past couple of weeks, 161 00:07:32,000 --> 00:07:34,440 Speaker 4: where it's like I'm betting it, but I don't really 162 00:07:34,680 --> 00:07:36,160 Speaker 4: like it fair enough. 163 00:07:36,840 --> 00:07:38,920 Speaker 1: This next one, I actually kind of liked the early 164 00:07:38,960 --> 00:07:40,840 Speaker 1: line on this one for the team that doesn't have 165 00:07:40,840 --> 00:07:43,400 Speaker 1: a win. They're at home, the Carolina Panthers are giving 166 00:07:43,440 --> 00:07:44,920 Speaker 1: up three points to the New Orleans Saints. 167 00:07:45,280 --> 00:07:46,960 Speaker 2: I think New Orleans is a hot Mets right now. 168 00:07:47,000 --> 00:07:50,680 Speaker 1: And I think, you know, after that game yesterday, anyone's 169 00:07:50,680 --> 00:07:52,920 Speaker 1: faith in jameis Winston, if you had any, had to 170 00:07:52,960 --> 00:07:55,040 Speaker 1: have been shaken. Forty and a half is the number 171 00:07:55,280 --> 00:07:58,080 Speaker 1: for the over under look. Maybe you see this differently 172 00:07:58,080 --> 00:07:59,720 Speaker 1: than me, Friedman, but this one kind of jumped out 173 00:07:59,720 --> 00:08:01,880 Speaker 1: to me is a huge trap game where people are 174 00:08:01,880 --> 00:08:03,600 Speaker 1: going to buy into the Saints even though their favorites 175 00:08:03,640 --> 00:08:05,760 Speaker 1: of this game. But I kind of like the Carolina 176 00:08:05,800 --> 00:08:06,320 Speaker 1: side of this one. 177 00:08:06,320 --> 00:08:07,080 Speaker 2: What are your thoughts. 178 00:08:07,320 --> 00:08:12,400 Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm seeing a three in the market right now, 179 00:08:12,640 --> 00:08:15,000 Speaker 4: and I have this at two point twenty five. So 180 00:08:15,240 --> 00:08:18,560 Speaker 4: in theory, there's you know, some value here to the Panthers. 181 00:08:18,680 --> 00:08:22,080 Speaker 4: But man, I'm I'm not betting it. It's it's a 182 00:08:22,120 --> 00:08:25,040 Speaker 4: pretty nasty game. I think it's a it's a path 183 00:08:25,160 --> 00:08:25,640 Speaker 4: either way. 184 00:08:25,680 --> 00:08:26,280 Speaker 3: And I would like. 185 00:08:26,320 --> 00:08:30,480 Speaker 4: To see more more medical information coming out on Jameis Winston, 186 00:08:30,680 --> 00:08:33,760 Speaker 4: you know, see exactly when he's practicing this one, or 187 00:08:33,800 --> 00:08:34,079 Speaker 4: do you. 188 00:08:34,080 --> 00:08:35,160 Speaker 2: Want to do it now? 189 00:08:35,480 --> 00:08:38,280 Speaker 1: And and if that news continues to get worse, maybe 190 00:08:38,320 --> 00:08:39,920 Speaker 1: that number goes from three to two and a half. 191 00:08:40,080 --> 00:08:42,199 Speaker 4: Just putting it out there, maybe the real answer is 192 00:08:42,200 --> 00:08:43,199 Speaker 4: I don't want to do it at all. 193 00:08:43,400 --> 00:08:44,480 Speaker 2: That's fine, that's fine. 194 00:08:44,520 --> 00:08:45,559 Speaker 3: I like this. 195 00:08:45,679 --> 00:08:47,679 Speaker 1: Why don't you know I watched Carolina and they had 196 00:08:47,679 --> 00:08:49,280 Speaker 1: some fight in that Giant game. It was kind of 197 00:08:49,320 --> 00:08:51,600 Speaker 1: a it was an ugly game at times, but they 198 00:08:51,640 --> 00:08:55,440 Speaker 1: were fighting and competing and defense at times played pretty well, 199 00:08:55,480 --> 00:08:58,079 Speaker 1: especially for the first three quarters of that game. Now 200 00:08:58,240 --> 00:09:00,920 Speaker 1: on the Saint side, I mean, like I said, the injuries, 201 00:09:00,960 --> 00:09:03,480 Speaker 1: Alba Kamara, everything that's going on here with them, They 202 00:09:03,480 --> 00:09:05,679 Speaker 1: seem a little chaotic here. They're going on the road, 203 00:09:05,840 --> 00:09:07,080 Speaker 1: and look, all the money is going to the New 204 00:09:07,120 --> 00:09:09,480 Speaker 1: Orleans side early here on this one, Pat, But what 205 00:09:09,520 --> 00:09:10,840 Speaker 1: are your thoughts? How do you see this New Orleans 206 00:09:10,920 --> 00:09:11,720 Speaker 1: Carolina matchup? 207 00:09:12,040 --> 00:09:15,000 Speaker 5: Yeah, I still have immense respect for the Saints defense. 208 00:09:15,280 --> 00:09:17,280 Speaker 6: I think that's a really tough unit, and that's why 209 00:09:17,320 --> 00:09:20,440 Speaker 6: I'm disinclined to take the points I think here, Joe. 210 00:09:20,440 --> 00:09:22,360 Speaker 5: But let me ask you guys a hypothetical question. 211 00:09:22,440 --> 00:09:26,720 Speaker 6: Let's say Jamis Winston's back wasn't okay, and how do 212 00:09:26,760 --> 00:09:29,520 Speaker 6: you think the line would move if we knew we 213 00:09:29,520 --> 00:09:31,600 Speaker 6: were getting Taysom Hill in this game? 214 00:09:31,640 --> 00:09:33,360 Speaker 5: Would it? Would it really move that much at all? 215 00:09:33,520 --> 00:09:34,360 Speaker 3: It would be Dalton. 216 00:09:35,520 --> 00:09:37,440 Speaker 5: Oh, that's right, it would be Dalton when. 217 00:09:37,400 --> 00:09:39,480 Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, don't still move. 218 00:09:39,720 --> 00:09:43,160 Speaker 6: I think we probably get a healthy dose of Taysom Hill, 219 00:09:43,160 --> 00:09:44,959 Speaker 6: though I would expect there would be a lot of 220 00:09:45,000 --> 00:09:48,400 Speaker 6: Taysom Hill pack at this Yeah, I mean. 221 00:09:48,840 --> 00:09:51,520 Speaker 4: I don't know if the line would move, and if anything, 222 00:09:51,760 --> 00:09:54,000 Speaker 4: it actually might move towards New Orleans. 223 00:09:54,679 --> 00:09:56,880 Speaker 1: All right, really see this one differently. 224 00:09:56,920 --> 00:09:59,839 Speaker 2: This is fun. I love this. This is a great discussion. 225 00:10:00,480 --> 00:10:02,640 Speaker 1: Let's go to the next game on this list, the 226 00:10:02,679 --> 00:10:06,560 Speaker 1: Houston Texans one and one head to Chicago, who is 227 00:10:06,600 --> 00:10:09,679 Speaker 1: now one in one? Chicago is actually favorites. You're not 228 00:10:09,679 --> 00:10:11,400 Speaker 1: going to hear me say that very often on the show. 229 00:10:11,520 --> 00:10:14,800 Speaker 1: Chicago's favorites at home two and a half points they're 230 00:10:14,800 --> 00:10:16,400 Speaker 1: getting right now in this game. And then you have 231 00:10:16,440 --> 00:10:19,000 Speaker 1: the thirty nine as the over under. So clearly Big 232 00:10:19,120 --> 00:10:22,200 Speaker 1: is not looking for a high scoring affair here. But 233 00:10:22,960 --> 00:10:25,280 Speaker 1: is that potentially the wrong number? I mean, whenever you 234 00:10:25,280 --> 00:10:27,640 Speaker 1: see those numbers under forty pat those are ones that 235 00:10:28,160 --> 00:10:30,240 Speaker 1: you know, typically you look long and hard at and 236 00:10:30,240 --> 00:10:32,840 Speaker 1: you ask yourself that question, like, is that just too low? 237 00:10:33,000 --> 00:10:35,760 Speaker 1: Despite the fact that there's been some challenges to these 238 00:10:35,800 --> 00:10:37,120 Speaker 1: offenses in the early going. 239 00:10:37,120 --> 00:10:38,679 Speaker 2: What are your thoughts on Houston Chicago? 240 00:10:39,160 --> 00:10:41,040 Speaker 6: Well, apparently not too low joke because I was just 241 00:10:41,080 --> 00:10:43,720 Speaker 6: on DraftKings before the show. No was thirty eight there, 242 00:10:43,840 --> 00:10:45,040 Speaker 6: it was even a point lower. 243 00:10:45,520 --> 00:10:47,360 Speaker 5: Yeah, I don't know. 244 00:10:47,400 --> 00:10:50,800 Speaker 6: I mean, Luke Getzi, the Bears play caller, seems to 245 00:10:50,840 --> 00:10:54,280 Speaker 6: hate the forward pass, so you know that is an 246 00:10:54,320 --> 00:10:56,920 Speaker 6: obstacle to scoring points in the modern NFL. 247 00:10:57,200 --> 00:10:59,400 Speaker 5: A guy who does not want to call passing plays. 248 00:10:59,440 --> 00:11:03,679 Speaker 6: I mean, the Bears last night basically trailing by double 249 00:11:03,720 --> 00:11:04,760 Speaker 6: digits for most. 250 00:11:04,559 --> 00:11:05,120 Speaker 5: Of that game. 251 00:11:05,520 --> 00:11:08,000 Speaker 6: And how many passes did did Justin fields at tenth? 252 00:11:08,040 --> 00:11:09,920 Speaker 6: Was it like eleven? I don't have any in front 253 00:11:09,960 --> 00:11:14,600 Speaker 6: of me. Unbelievable. So, you know, with a guy who 254 00:11:14,720 --> 00:11:17,880 Speaker 6: just has the manacles on Justin fields. As far as 255 00:11:17,920 --> 00:11:20,400 Speaker 6: play calling, like, I don't know if it should be 256 00:11:20,440 --> 00:11:23,160 Speaker 6: any higher. And Houston's offense certainly did not look good 257 00:11:23,160 --> 00:11:24,160 Speaker 6: in Denvery yesterday. 258 00:11:24,360 --> 00:11:24,960 Speaker 5: I mean, they. 259 00:11:24,880 --> 00:11:26,959 Speaker 6: Easily could have won that game with just a little 260 00:11:27,000 --> 00:11:29,800 Speaker 6: bit of offense. Just a couple of big plays didn't 261 00:11:29,800 --> 00:11:32,920 Speaker 6: get them. So, man, thirty eight sounds about right to me. 262 00:11:33,480 --> 00:11:35,760 Speaker 1: All right, Well, look I've been saying, I know everyone 263 00:11:35,840 --> 00:11:38,680 Speaker 1: in the fancy Comney has been very enamored of Davis Mills. 264 00:11:38,679 --> 00:11:41,679 Speaker 1: I keep saying, you know, if you set the bar subterranean, 265 00:11:41,720 --> 00:11:43,199 Speaker 1: you don't have to be that good in order to 266 00:11:43,240 --> 00:11:45,679 Speaker 1: get everybody's expectations up. I think the expectation is a 267 00:11:45,679 --> 00:11:49,240 Speaker 1: little high. And maybe maybe Matt, just maybe you go 268 00:11:49,320 --> 00:11:50,959 Speaker 1: back and you look at this game against Green Bay 269 00:11:50,960 --> 00:11:52,600 Speaker 1: and go, you know what, we didn't throw the ball enough. 270 00:11:52,679 --> 00:11:54,320 Speaker 1: Maybe we have to correct that a little bit. So 271 00:11:54,600 --> 00:11:56,440 Speaker 1: is there anything appealing in this game? Early on for 272 00:11:56,520 --> 00:11:58,079 Speaker 1: you maybe. 273 00:11:58,160 --> 00:12:01,280 Speaker 4: So I'm thinking of last week where there were some 274 00:12:01,400 --> 00:12:06,000 Speaker 4: spots that I liked and uh, well my number like them, 275 00:12:06,160 --> 00:12:08,720 Speaker 4: but I didn't bet them, and maybe I should have. 276 00:12:08,760 --> 00:12:11,480 Speaker 1: So I'm thinking of that with the numbers, right, yeah 277 00:12:11,480 --> 00:12:13,760 Speaker 1: for the number, Yeah, yeah, I'm thinking of the jack. 278 00:12:13,800 --> 00:12:17,640 Speaker 4: Sure like I had. I had that, you know, at three, 279 00:12:17,760 --> 00:12:19,400 Speaker 4: and the number was four and a half. Actually, I 280 00:12:19,400 --> 00:12:20,599 Speaker 4: think I had it two and a half and the 281 00:12:20,679 --> 00:12:22,040 Speaker 4: number was four and a half and I was like, 282 00:12:22,600 --> 00:12:24,719 Speaker 4: it's an ugly line. I'm just gonna stay away. And 283 00:12:24,760 --> 00:12:27,079 Speaker 4: so this makes me think of that a little bit. 284 00:12:27,640 --> 00:12:30,360 Speaker 4: It's going to be a nasty game between two teams 285 00:12:30,400 --> 00:12:33,680 Speaker 4: that you know, haven't shown much the numbers two and 286 00:12:33,679 --> 00:12:35,520 Speaker 4: a half. I have it at three and a half, 287 00:12:35,600 --> 00:12:38,760 Speaker 4: and so going across the three there is significant value. 288 00:12:39,320 --> 00:12:41,720 Speaker 4: I haven't bet it because honestly, I feel like maybe 289 00:12:41,720 --> 00:12:44,600 Speaker 4: I'm a little too high on Chicago and I want 290 00:12:44,640 --> 00:12:47,120 Speaker 4: to evaluate a little bit more what we saw in 291 00:12:47,120 --> 00:12:49,679 Speaker 4: that game last night. So I'm going to go back 292 00:12:49,720 --> 00:12:52,360 Speaker 4: and do that. But if I don't adjust the power 293 00:12:52,480 --> 00:12:55,320 Speaker 4: ratings anymore for Chicago, I might go bet this game. 294 00:12:55,880 --> 00:12:59,839 Speaker 1: All right. Kansas City Chiefs are heading to Indianapolis indianapoliss 295 00:13:00,200 --> 00:13:03,520 Speaker 1: and a half point underdogs at home, and I can 296 00:13:03,640 --> 00:13:05,360 Speaker 1: understand why a lot of the buddy seams be coming 297 00:13:05,360 --> 00:13:07,200 Speaker 1: in on the KC side early two on the six 298 00:13:07,240 --> 00:13:08,839 Speaker 1: and a half number. The number is forty nine and 299 00:13:08,880 --> 00:13:11,319 Speaker 1: a half. We don't have clarity about Michael Pittman yet 300 00:13:11,360 --> 00:13:13,520 Speaker 1: for this week or some other injuries. 301 00:13:13,600 --> 00:13:16,200 Speaker 2: Obviously this was a poor showing. 302 00:13:16,280 --> 00:13:19,079 Speaker 1: Let's just put it modly for the Indianapolis Colts. So, 303 00:13:19,200 --> 00:13:22,440 Speaker 1: Matthew Friedman, the six and a half seems very reasonable. 304 00:13:22,480 --> 00:13:23,960 Speaker 1: Do you think this one is going to grow as 305 00:13:24,000 --> 00:13:24,800 Speaker 1: the week moves on? 306 00:13:25,440 --> 00:13:25,680 Speaker 3: Yeah? 307 00:13:25,720 --> 00:13:28,040 Speaker 4: I think so, And I'll say I grab this on 308 00:13:28,080 --> 00:13:31,120 Speaker 4: the look ahead at three shout out me. 309 00:13:31,640 --> 00:13:34,839 Speaker 3: But now you love you? Some of you don't you? 310 00:13:35,440 --> 00:13:38,600 Speaker 2: But you think I'm bad, let me tell you this guy. 311 00:13:40,800 --> 00:13:44,520 Speaker 4: But now I'm showing value just in my spreadsheet on 312 00:13:44,760 --> 00:13:46,920 Speaker 4: the Colts, and that makes me want to go in 313 00:13:47,040 --> 00:13:49,840 Speaker 4: and just auto adjust whatever the power rating is on 314 00:13:49,880 --> 00:13:53,000 Speaker 4: the Colts, because there is no way I want anyone 315 00:13:53,120 --> 00:13:55,920 Speaker 4: looking at our projections to think that they should bet 316 00:13:55,960 --> 00:13:58,600 Speaker 4: on the Colts in this game unless this number gets 317 00:13:58,760 --> 00:14:01,600 Speaker 4: past seven. You know so, I and I think it 318 00:14:01,600 --> 00:14:03,800 Speaker 4: could get there. And even then I'm just like, that 319 00:14:03,920 --> 00:14:06,240 Speaker 4: kind of hurts my stomach to think of someone betting 320 00:14:06,280 --> 00:14:09,000 Speaker 4: on the Colts. So like, I show slight value on 321 00:14:09,040 --> 00:14:10,800 Speaker 4: the Colts at this number, but there is no way 322 00:14:10,880 --> 00:14:11,560 Speaker 4: I would bet it. 323 00:14:12,040 --> 00:14:14,160 Speaker 1: I think, you know, Shack Leonard's health certainly has been 324 00:14:14,200 --> 00:14:16,040 Speaker 1: a huge issue for this defense early going. 325 00:14:16,080 --> 00:14:17,520 Speaker 2: I don't think that's been talked about enough. 326 00:14:17,720 --> 00:14:20,600 Speaker 1: But maybe just maybe we've seen this sometimes fits where 327 00:14:20,920 --> 00:14:23,280 Speaker 1: you know, some teams for whatever reason, just to have 328 00:14:23,400 --> 00:14:26,560 Speaker 1: better team's numbers, and maybe the Jags just own the 329 00:14:26,560 --> 00:14:28,840 Speaker 1: Colts for some kind of weird headspace. I don't know. 330 00:14:28,880 --> 00:14:30,560 Speaker 1: I don't know what else to say about this one, 331 00:14:30,600 --> 00:14:33,560 Speaker 1: but this number felt low to me in the early going. 332 00:14:33,920 --> 00:14:35,720 Speaker 1: I feel like if we get Pittmann out, it's only 333 00:14:35,720 --> 00:14:38,800 Speaker 1: going to grow a little bit more. Perhaps that's a trap, 334 00:14:38,840 --> 00:14:40,600 Speaker 1: but to me, I mean, how do you not go 335 00:14:40,640 --> 00:14:41,800 Speaker 1: to the k C side of this game? 336 00:14:42,640 --> 00:14:46,880 Speaker 6: Yeah, and Joe, Normally, this is the kind of that 337 00:14:47,040 --> 00:14:49,040 Speaker 6: that I like to make, like on the Colts, where 338 00:14:49,120 --> 00:14:51,960 Speaker 6: it's a team coming off a bad, punch in the 339 00:14:52,000 --> 00:14:55,080 Speaker 6: mouth type of loss going up against a fat, happy 340 00:14:55,120 --> 00:14:57,520 Speaker 6: team coming off a big win, even if they were 341 00:14:57,600 --> 00:15:01,080 Speaker 6: out play it on Thursday night by the charge. But 342 00:15:01,240 --> 00:15:03,200 Speaker 6: I like, I just can't bet the Colts in this 343 00:15:03,280 --> 00:15:06,160 Speaker 6: I don't think, I mean, no matter what I agree 344 00:15:06,160 --> 00:15:08,760 Speaker 6: with Friedman, like I had projected this to be a 345 00:15:08,960 --> 00:15:12,320 Speaker 6: smaller spread than it was on Saturday when I was 346 00:15:12,360 --> 00:15:14,760 Speaker 6: first looking at these games. Of course, we got, you know, 347 00:15:15,080 --> 00:15:17,600 Speaker 6: a new set of data for the Colts, and it. 348 00:15:17,560 --> 00:15:20,400 Speaker 5: Wasn't a very good set of data. Nope, nope. 349 00:15:20,400 --> 00:15:25,400 Speaker 6: We had no no Pittman and no Shack Leonard. But 350 00:15:25,440 --> 00:15:28,680 Speaker 6: they did have DeForest Buckner and Kenny Moore, who they 351 00:15:28,680 --> 00:15:30,920 Speaker 6: weren't sure they were gonna have. I mean, DeForest Buckner 352 00:15:31,000 --> 00:15:32,280 Speaker 6: was a ghost in that game. 353 00:15:32,640 --> 00:15:33,240 Speaker 3: Well, and like. 354 00:15:33,360 --> 00:15:35,400 Speaker 1: Kenny Moore was not one hundred percent either. I think 355 00:15:35,400 --> 00:15:36,280 Speaker 1: we can all agree on that. 356 00:15:36,720 --> 00:15:39,280 Speaker 6: Yeah, And so like, I mean, are they just like 357 00:15:39,440 --> 00:15:41,760 Speaker 6: laying down for Frank Reich? Are they not playing for 358 00:15:41,800 --> 00:15:44,840 Speaker 6: this guy? Which interesting, It seems like they're almost quitting 359 00:15:44,880 --> 00:15:48,640 Speaker 6: on this guy already after last year's disappointment. But man, 360 00:15:49,360 --> 00:15:53,680 Speaker 6: starting oh one and one against the Texans and the 361 00:15:53,800 --> 00:15:57,440 Speaker 6: Jaguars after the Jaguars bumped you out of the playoffs 362 00:15:57,520 --> 00:16:00,280 Speaker 6: last year, What a disastrous start for the Colts. I mean, 363 00:16:00,280 --> 00:16:03,800 Speaker 6: you just can't say enough about how my gosh I 364 00:16:03,840 --> 00:16:04,960 Speaker 6: feel for Colts fans. 365 00:16:05,000 --> 00:16:07,400 Speaker 5: Man, they cannot be holding their heads very high this morning. 366 00:16:07,680 --> 00:16:10,400 Speaker 4: Yeah, I've adjusted while we were talking, I adjusted them 367 00:16:10,440 --> 00:16:11,920 Speaker 4: down a point. 368 00:16:12,880 --> 00:16:15,360 Speaker 2: It was just like, no, I was just gnawing at you. 369 00:16:15,440 --> 00:16:17,320 Speaker 2: He just couldn't get us order. 370 00:16:17,920 --> 00:16:21,280 Speaker 4: Yeah, Hey, I'm measured in all of my movements. 371 00:16:21,560 --> 00:16:24,600 Speaker 1: He is, he is all right, Buffalo is going to 372 00:16:24,640 --> 00:16:27,120 Speaker 1: travel to Miami. He was undefeated. We'll see what the 373 00:16:27,160 --> 00:16:29,600 Speaker 1: Bills do tonight on Monday Night. But of course the 374 00:16:29,600 --> 00:16:32,200 Speaker 1: Buffalo Bills will be favored in this game regardless. Four 375 00:16:32,200 --> 00:16:35,280 Speaker 1: and a half points right now, many would say the 376 00:16:35,280 --> 00:16:37,720 Speaker 1: coming out party, I thought it was fascinating. Pat at 377 00:16:37,720 --> 00:16:40,080 Speaker 1: the end of that game, you heard Mike McDaniel and 378 00:16:40,120 --> 00:16:42,560 Speaker 1: the press conference talked about you know, this was a 379 00:16:42,560 --> 00:16:45,200 Speaker 1: big step for TWOA because Tua didn't quit on Tua. 380 00:16:45,360 --> 00:16:47,200 Speaker 1: You know, he's a guy that maybe's too hard on himself, 381 00:16:47,320 --> 00:16:49,960 Speaker 1: makes mistakes, he lives in the mistake instead of moving on. Well, 382 00:16:50,000 --> 00:16:51,040 Speaker 1: he moved on in a big way. 383 00:16:51,200 --> 00:16:52,440 Speaker 2: This was a huge victory. 384 00:16:52,680 --> 00:16:55,600 Speaker 1: So in two weeks they've beaten Bill Belichick and John Harbaugh. 385 00:16:55,920 --> 00:16:56,560 Speaker 2: That's a lot. 386 00:16:56,760 --> 00:16:59,240 Speaker 1: And I think this line is still being respectful of 387 00:16:59,280 --> 00:17:01,560 Speaker 1: that fifty one and a half is the total. What 388 00:17:01,600 --> 00:17:03,840 Speaker 1: are your thoughts on this one here, because it definitely 389 00:17:03,880 --> 00:17:06,360 Speaker 1: feels like a game where there might be some rumblings 390 00:17:06,400 --> 00:17:09,080 Speaker 1: of saying maybe Miami just feels like they're this little 391 00:17:09,119 --> 00:17:11,200 Speaker 1: engine that could and they could beat anybody right now, 392 00:17:11,240 --> 00:17:13,280 Speaker 1: and they are going to be at home. I mean 393 00:17:13,280 --> 00:17:14,720 Speaker 1: a lot of energy in that building. But do you 394 00:17:14,720 --> 00:17:17,679 Speaker 1: think it's enough to overcome Buffalo in this point total? 395 00:17:18,119 --> 00:17:19,000 Speaker 5: Yeah, you said it, Joe. 396 00:17:19,080 --> 00:17:21,320 Speaker 6: I think there is a new found respect for Miami 397 00:17:21,359 --> 00:17:23,560 Speaker 6: and it's reflected in this line, which is why I 398 00:17:23,600 --> 00:17:25,879 Speaker 6: see a little bit of early value in Buffalo. I mean, 399 00:17:26,080 --> 00:17:30,280 Speaker 6: I do still think Buffalo is the superior team. The 400 00:17:30,320 --> 00:17:33,280 Speaker 6: Miami defense gave up some really big plays. Sure To 401 00:17:33,280 --> 00:17:37,159 Speaker 6: today you know and like to will look great, but 402 00:17:37,320 --> 00:17:41,000 Speaker 6: he didn't always make pinpoint throws. He just had Tyreek 403 00:17:41,080 --> 00:17:43,320 Speaker 6: Hill and Jalen Waddell making plays for him all day. 404 00:17:43,359 --> 00:17:47,399 Speaker 6: He also threw a couple of interceptions. You obviously have 405 00:17:47,440 --> 00:17:50,199 Speaker 6: to like the potential firepower of this Miami offense, but 406 00:17:51,440 --> 00:17:53,400 Speaker 6: I do feel like this line is a little bit 407 00:17:53,440 --> 00:17:56,280 Speaker 6: of an overreaction to what we saw in a game 408 00:17:56,280 --> 00:17:59,119 Speaker 6: that just grabbed everyone's attention yesterday in Baltimore. 409 00:17:59,560 --> 00:18:01,439 Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm back kids yesterday, Freeman. 410 00:18:01,520 --> 00:18:03,840 Speaker 1: But does that matter at all when you're playing possibly 411 00:18:03,880 --> 00:18:05,600 Speaker 1: the most complete team in the NFL in Buffalo. 412 00:18:06,200 --> 00:18:09,160 Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean I bumped Miami up a little bit 413 00:18:09,320 --> 00:18:12,960 Speaker 4: after that game, just because we do see the ceiling 414 00:18:13,080 --> 00:18:16,160 Speaker 4: that they have. But I have this exactly at four 415 00:18:16,200 --> 00:18:18,600 Speaker 4: and a half, so I don't see value on either side. 416 00:18:18,680 --> 00:18:21,040 Speaker 3: I have, however, bet the over fifty one while we 417 00:18:21,040 --> 00:18:22,320 Speaker 3: were I was going to ask you. 418 00:18:22,400 --> 00:18:24,199 Speaker 1: I was just gonna ask you to see value in 419 00:18:24,240 --> 00:18:26,000 Speaker 1: the number of fifty one and a half though, because 420 00:18:26,000 --> 00:18:27,920 Speaker 1: that could climb in the next couple of days. 421 00:18:28,080 --> 00:18:30,359 Speaker 4: Yeah, so fifty one and a half across the market, 422 00:18:30,359 --> 00:18:32,679 Speaker 4: there is a fifty one at Caesars. 423 00:18:32,720 --> 00:18:35,000 Speaker 3: That's where I bet it. I think this line's gonna move. 424 00:18:35,520 --> 00:18:38,479 Speaker 4: I think at home Buffalo is going to put up 425 00:18:38,520 --> 00:18:40,920 Speaker 4: a ton of points. We just saw Miami put up points. 426 00:18:40,920 --> 00:18:42,560 Speaker 4: So I don't know if I'm on the right side. 427 00:18:42,600 --> 00:18:44,840 Speaker 4: I just think I'm gonna get some closing line value here, 428 00:18:44,880 --> 00:18:46,000 Speaker 4: and that's what I'm looking at. 429 00:18:46,160 --> 00:18:50,760 Speaker 6: And those those Dolphins receivers against the bill secondary without 430 00:18:50,800 --> 00:18:53,840 Speaker 6: Tredavius White, like I know that secondary held up really 431 00:18:53,840 --> 00:18:57,240 Speaker 6: well in Week one, although Cooper Cup did get his 432 00:18:57,480 --> 00:19:01,560 Speaker 6: for certain, But like that is that could make this 433 00:19:02,160 --> 00:19:04,920 Speaker 6: that could psh this way over fifty exactly. 434 00:19:05,000 --> 00:19:08,000 Speaker 4: And entering Monday Night football, it looks like Dane Jackson 435 00:19:08,080 --> 00:19:10,720 Speaker 4: is having some injury issues, so he's the other corner 436 00:19:11,000 --> 00:19:13,280 Speaker 4: who would be starting opposite for Davis White. So like 437 00:19:13,440 --> 00:19:16,960 Speaker 4: they could be without like both of their real starting corners, 438 00:19:17,080 --> 00:19:19,840 Speaker 4: which would be a catastrophic So we just have to see. 439 00:19:20,359 --> 00:19:22,080 Speaker 1: Yeah, we'll check that out, keep an eye on it, 440 00:19:22,119 --> 00:19:24,159 Speaker 1: for sure. And in the words of Nathan Lane from 441 00:19:24,160 --> 00:19:27,199 Speaker 1: the bird Cage, how about those Dolphins. Let's go to 442 00:19:27,280 --> 00:19:30,960 Speaker 1: the next one here, the Detroit Lions, who certainly has 443 00:19:31,160 --> 00:19:34,080 Speaker 1: battled with two before, certainly giving up some big plays 444 00:19:34,080 --> 00:19:36,200 Speaker 1: on their own. They're gonna take on the Minnesota Vikings 445 00:19:36,200 --> 00:19:38,479 Speaker 1: and potentially the most dangerous wide receiver in the NFL. 446 00:19:39,280 --> 00:19:41,280 Speaker 1: You've got the Minnesota Vikings seven and a half point 447 00:19:41,320 --> 00:19:44,199 Speaker 1: favorites here against Detroit. Now, Detroit has shown you that 448 00:19:44,280 --> 00:19:47,200 Speaker 1: they can answer, they can score. They've that big play 449 00:19:47,200 --> 00:19:47,800 Speaker 1: after big play. 450 00:19:47,840 --> 00:19:48,320 Speaker 3: I'm on Ross. 451 00:19:48,320 --> 00:19:50,080 Speaker 1: Saint Brown has been on fire. The number in this 452 00:19:50,119 --> 00:19:51,919 Speaker 1: game is fifty one. This feels like a number that 453 00:19:51,920 --> 00:19:54,080 Speaker 1: could climb as well. Friedman, do you see that the 454 00:19:54,119 --> 00:19:56,679 Speaker 1: same way Detroit has showed you they can compete? But 455 00:19:56,840 --> 00:20:00,159 Speaker 1: can they hang here and hit this over a fifty one? 456 00:20:00,680 --> 00:20:00,880 Speaker 5: Yeah? 457 00:20:01,000 --> 00:20:03,080 Speaker 4: I think this number could climb. The one thing that 458 00:20:03,240 --> 00:20:05,840 Speaker 4: gives me pause, and this also touches on the spread, 459 00:20:06,000 --> 00:20:09,640 Speaker 4: is that if on Monday Night Football tonight, we see 460 00:20:09,640 --> 00:20:14,200 Speaker 4: the Eagles, I would say they're gonna shut down the Vikings. 461 00:20:14,200 --> 00:20:17,600 Speaker 4: But if we see them present significant resistance to the 462 00:20:18,080 --> 00:20:21,960 Speaker 4: Vikings offense, I think that could keep this total from 463 00:20:21,960 --> 00:20:24,720 Speaker 4: climbing next, you know, as we move into Week three, 464 00:20:24,840 --> 00:20:28,160 Speaker 4: and I think it would also drive the spread down. 465 00:20:28,320 --> 00:20:31,320 Speaker 4: So if you like the Lions in this game, and 466 00:20:31,480 --> 00:20:33,480 Speaker 4: I do, it's seven and a half. I have it 467 00:20:33,520 --> 00:20:36,440 Speaker 4: at four point seventy five. I would bet the Lions 468 00:20:36,720 --> 00:20:39,919 Speaker 4: now while we're on the positive side of seven. 469 00:20:40,480 --> 00:20:42,560 Speaker 1: Okay, how do you feel about this one here? 470 00:20:42,600 --> 00:20:42,919 Speaker 2: Pat? 471 00:20:43,640 --> 00:20:44,000 Speaker 5: Yeah? 472 00:20:44,040 --> 00:20:46,000 Speaker 6: Friedman, can you promise me this line is going to 473 00:20:46,040 --> 00:20:47,920 Speaker 6: come down the total because I would love to bet 474 00:20:47,920 --> 00:20:49,840 Speaker 6: the over right now at fifty one and a half. 475 00:20:49,960 --> 00:20:50,720 Speaker 5: I think the Lions. 476 00:20:51,119 --> 00:20:53,520 Speaker 3: I can't promise you that. That's just speculat but. 477 00:20:53,960 --> 00:20:55,680 Speaker 6: It might so all right, I guess I have to 478 00:20:56,200 --> 00:20:59,520 Speaker 6: root for the Eagles to shut. 479 00:20:58,680 --> 00:21:00,399 Speaker 1: Well, let's ask the question, Pat, what do we know 480 00:21:00,440 --> 00:21:01,920 Speaker 1: about what we see about the Eagles in that first 481 00:21:01,960 --> 00:21:03,720 Speaker 1: week against Detroit? Right? They got thrown on. 482 00:21:03,760 --> 00:21:04,480 Speaker 2: A ton in that game? 483 00:21:05,040 --> 00:21:06,240 Speaker 5: Right, they did? They did? 484 00:21:06,920 --> 00:21:08,600 Speaker 1: Would you really think that there's a good chance that 485 00:21:08,600 --> 00:21:11,440 Speaker 1: they're going to have any resistance here to Justin Jefferson 486 00:21:11,560 --> 00:21:13,680 Speaker 1: and then this passing attack of Kevin O'Connell. 487 00:21:14,040 --> 00:21:14,920 Speaker 5: Yeah, good question. 488 00:21:14,960 --> 00:21:16,760 Speaker 6: I would have thought the Packers had a better pass 489 00:21:16,800 --> 00:21:18,720 Speaker 6: defense than that the Eagles do. 490 00:21:18,920 --> 00:21:21,320 Speaker 5: But we'll see. I mean, like everything just seemed to. 491 00:21:21,280 --> 00:21:23,160 Speaker 6: Click for the Vikings in week one and we'll see 492 00:21:23,160 --> 00:21:25,479 Speaker 6: if that's the case when they take their their you know, 493 00:21:25,880 --> 00:21:28,800 Speaker 6: show on the road to Philadelphia. But we do know 494 00:21:29,040 --> 00:21:32,120 Speaker 6: Detroit is a shootout machine. Like their offense is really 495 00:21:32,160 --> 00:21:35,840 Speaker 6: good and they cannot stop anyone. And now Steve Hutchinson 496 00:21:35,840 --> 00:21:38,679 Speaker 6: has banged up. He picked up a leg injury yesterday. 497 00:21:39,440 --> 00:21:43,800 Speaker 6: There cornerbacks not very good to begin with. Area has 498 00:21:43,840 --> 00:21:46,480 Speaker 6: a back issue. Jeffrey Acuda. I don't know if he 499 00:21:46,640 --> 00:21:48,720 Speaker 6: showed up on the injury report. I know he at 500 00:21:48,760 --> 00:21:52,879 Speaker 6: one point was dealing with something yesterday. So two not 501 00:21:53,080 --> 00:21:57,040 Speaker 6: very good cornerbacks, starting cornerbacks and they're both banged up, 502 00:21:57,760 --> 00:22:01,000 Speaker 6: you know, going against Justin Jefferson, that would be suboptimal. 503 00:22:01,880 --> 00:22:03,439 Speaker 1: Let's take a quick break in the action to tell 504 00:22:03,440 --> 00:22:06,359 Speaker 1: you about bet MGM, the king of sportsbooks. Sign up 505 00:22:06,359 --> 00:22:08,920 Speaker 1: today with betmgm and use that promo code betting Pros 506 00:22:08,960 --> 00:22:11,720 Speaker 1: when you do, and your first wager is risk free 507 00:22:11,840 --> 00:22:14,840 Speaker 1: up to one thousand dollars. Visit betmgm dot com for 508 00:22:14,920 --> 00:22:17,280 Speaker 1: terms and conditions, and don't forget to use that promo 509 00:22:17,320 --> 00:22:20,119 Speaker 1: code betting Pros. That's one word, betting pros when you 510 00:22:20,160 --> 00:22:27,680 Speaker 1: sign up today. 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Gambling problem called 518 00:22:51,560 --> 00:22:53,760 Speaker 1: one eight hundred next step in Arizona one one hundred 519 00:22:53,840 --> 00:22:58,520 Speaker 1: five to two four seven zero zero in Colorado, DC, Kansas, Louisiana, Nevada, 520 00:22:58,640 --> 00:23:01,560 Speaker 1: Wyoming or Virginia one eight hundred two seven zero seven 521 00:23:01,640 --> 00:23:04,200 Speaker 1: one one seven for confidential help in Michigan, one hundred 522 00:23:04,200 --> 00:23:07,080 Speaker 1: gambler in Indiana, Maryland, New Jersey, or West Virginia one 523 00:23:07,119 --> 00:23:09,639 Speaker 1: eight hundred bets off in Iowa one hundred nine to 524 00:23:09,640 --> 00:23:11,880 Speaker 1: eighty one zero zero two three. In Puerto Rico, call 525 00:23:11,960 --> 00:23:15,720 Speaker 1: eight seven seven eight hop E n Y or texts 526 00:23:15,880 --> 00:23:18,440 Speaker 1: hop E n Y. In New York, call or text 527 00:23:18,480 --> 00:23:21,080 Speaker 1: the Tennessee Redline at one eight hundred eight eight nine 528 00:23:21,160 --> 00:23:23,400 Speaker 1: nine seven eight nine in Tennessee, or call one eight 529 00:23:23,440 --> 00:23:26,399 Speaker 1: eight eight seven seven seven nine six nine six in Mississippi. 530 00:23:26,400 --> 00:23:28,520 Speaker 1: In Ontario, if you have questions or concerns about your 531 00:23:28,520 --> 00:23:31,440 Speaker 1: gambling or someone close to you, please contact Connects Ontario 532 00:23:31,480 --> 00:23:34,280 Speaker 1: at eight six six five three one two six zero 533 00:23:34,400 --> 00:23:36,560 Speaker 1: zero to speak to an advisor free of charge. Sports 534 00:23:36,560 --> 00:23:39,679 Speaker 1: betting is void in Georgia, Hawaii, Ohio, and Utah and 535 00:23:39,720 --> 00:23:42,479 Speaker 1: other states where prohibitive promotional offer is not available in 536 00:23:42,480 --> 00:23:44,879 Speaker 1: Nevada and New York. And now back to the action. 537 00:23:45,560 --> 00:23:47,920 Speaker 1: All right, let's move on to the next contest. Here 538 00:23:48,000 --> 00:23:51,439 Speaker 1: on the schedule, we've got the Baltimore Ravens going to 539 00:23:51,520 --> 00:23:54,840 Speaker 1: New England. New England is you don't see this very often. 540 00:23:55,000 --> 00:23:57,920 Speaker 1: Three point underdogs in their own building. That is certainly 541 00:23:57,960 --> 00:24:01,320 Speaker 1: not historical, Bill Belichick, New England Patriot team. But you 542 00:24:01,320 --> 00:24:03,359 Speaker 1: can understand why. I mean, Baltimore just put up so 543 00:24:03,520 --> 00:24:06,399 Speaker 1: many points. Now they've had some answers sometimes for Lamar 544 00:24:06,840 --> 00:24:09,400 Speaker 1: this defensively, this is not the same Patriots defense though, 545 00:24:09,720 --> 00:24:12,040 Speaker 1: so pat When you're looking at this one early on 546 00:24:12,119 --> 00:24:14,439 Speaker 1: the numbers forty three and a half, the Baltimore Ravens 547 00:24:14,480 --> 00:24:17,119 Speaker 1: are favored by three. This seems very vanilla to me. 548 00:24:17,200 --> 00:24:18,760 Speaker 1: I don't know if there's any value early on. 549 00:24:18,800 --> 00:24:21,760 Speaker 6: Do you see any No, that's it, you know, looking 550 00:24:21,800 --> 00:24:24,359 Speaker 6: at this game, I just like my head was completely empty. 551 00:24:24,400 --> 00:24:24,560 Speaker 5: Joe. 552 00:24:24,760 --> 00:24:26,800 Speaker 6: All I could think of as the same thing you 553 00:24:26,880 --> 00:24:29,240 Speaker 6: just said, Wow, it's really strange to see the Patriots 554 00:24:29,280 --> 00:24:33,119 Speaker 6: just point home favorites. But really, how can you argue 555 00:24:33,119 --> 00:24:37,280 Speaker 6: with that? With their offense having looked as toothless and 556 00:24:37,400 --> 00:24:40,320 Speaker 6: Vanilla as it has so far through two weeks. So 557 00:24:41,400 --> 00:24:44,280 Speaker 6: you know, plus Baltimore just that was a tough loss 558 00:24:44,280 --> 00:24:46,440 Speaker 6: to Miami. I mean, they had to feel like they 559 00:24:46,440 --> 00:24:48,200 Speaker 6: had that game in hand and let it get away. 560 00:24:49,400 --> 00:24:54,520 Speaker 6: So this one feels right to me at three points 561 00:24:54,680 --> 00:24:56,600 Speaker 6: for the Ravens. I mean, it just it seems like 562 00:24:56,640 --> 00:24:57,439 Speaker 6: it's kind of spot on. 563 00:24:57,880 --> 00:24:58,199 Speaker 3: All right. 564 00:24:58,200 --> 00:25:00,159 Speaker 1: If it feels like it's spot on for even is 565 00:25:00,160 --> 00:25:02,520 Speaker 1: this a game to really not invest in right now 566 00:25:02,720 --> 00:25:03,120 Speaker 1: or at all? 567 00:25:03,640 --> 00:25:05,919 Speaker 4: Yeah, I think Fitz and I are going to have 568 00:25:06,520 --> 00:25:10,280 Speaker 4: a little bit of a disagreement on this one. I 569 00:25:10,400 --> 00:25:12,920 Speaker 4: have New England and I want to kind of go 570 00:25:12,960 --> 00:25:14,879 Speaker 4: and look at this more. But I have New England 571 00:25:15,840 --> 00:25:19,600 Speaker 4: as a small favorite in this game, and some of 572 00:25:19,640 --> 00:25:21,960 Speaker 4: it has to do with the home field advantage. Some 573 00:25:22,000 --> 00:25:25,239 Speaker 4: of it has to do with the fact that I 574 00:25:25,320 --> 00:25:29,240 Speaker 4: still don't think we are seeing Baltimore play that optimally 575 00:25:29,400 --> 00:25:31,560 Speaker 4: on offense. I don't think they're passing the ball as 576 00:25:31,640 --> 00:25:34,480 Speaker 4: much as they should, and they're still really banged up 577 00:25:34,560 --> 00:25:36,240 Speaker 4: in the secondary on defense. 578 00:25:37,560 --> 00:25:40,200 Speaker 3: And you know, I know that the Patriots have. 579 00:25:40,240 --> 00:25:43,560 Speaker 4: Not looked good on offense to open the season, but 580 00:25:43,680 --> 00:25:45,879 Speaker 4: you figure that at some point they have to start 581 00:25:45,880 --> 00:25:48,960 Speaker 4: getting better, and I think these two teams are just 582 00:25:49,160 --> 00:25:51,240 Speaker 4: a little closer. 583 00:25:52,280 --> 00:25:54,119 Speaker 3: Than the market anticipates. 584 00:25:54,240 --> 00:25:57,560 Speaker 4: So I might be wrong on this, and I could see, 585 00:25:57,600 --> 00:26:00,480 Speaker 4: like New England as a team that I just need 586 00:26:00,480 --> 00:26:03,280 Speaker 4: to adjust more aggressively because I was higher on them 587 00:26:03,280 --> 00:26:05,919 Speaker 4: than the market entering the season, and maybe I'm just 588 00:26:05,960 --> 00:26:08,080 Speaker 4: not adjusting fast enough. 589 00:26:08,160 --> 00:26:10,320 Speaker 3: But I think that there's value on them. 590 00:26:10,560 --> 00:26:12,199 Speaker 1: All right, Let's see if there's any value with the 591 00:26:12,320 --> 00:26:15,879 Speaker 1: Jets at home against the Cincinnati Bengals. The Bengals are 592 00:26:15,920 --> 00:26:17,679 Speaker 1: five and a half point favorites here. They are a 593 00:26:17,720 --> 00:26:19,960 Speaker 1: winless though, so I always say this every year. The 594 00:26:20,000 --> 00:26:21,800 Speaker 1: Super Bowl hangover is a real thing when you lose 595 00:26:21,840 --> 00:26:24,720 Speaker 1: a Super Bowl, especially in a kind of crushing way 596 00:26:24,760 --> 00:26:26,040 Speaker 1: at the very end where you might have had a 597 00:26:26,040 --> 00:26:28,720 Speaker 1: shot there at that very last moment, the air does 598 00:26:28,760 --> 00:26:30,320 Speaker 1: go out of the balloon. We've seen it time and 599 00:26:30,400 --> 00:26:32,760 Speaker 1: time again with team after team they get off to 600 00:26:32,800 --> 00:26:35,199 Speaker 1: these slow starts. So are the Jets the remedy for 601 00:26:35,240 --> 00:26:37,360 Speaker 1: that slow start? Freeman and this number at forty three, 602 00:26:37,480 --> 00:26:40,160 Speaker 1: or do you think this is just another weird potential 603 00:26:40,160 --> 00:26:41,879 Speaker 1: trap game for the Bengals where people are going to 604 00:26:41,920 --> 00:26:43,320 Speaker 1: fall into a false sense of security. 605 00:26:43,640 --> 00:26:45,800 Speaker 3: Yeah, I have nothing to say about this game. 606 00:26:46,480 --> 00:26:50,040 Speaker 4: I haven't projected at five point seventy five, so, you know, 607 00:26:50,280 --> 00:26:53,280 Speaker 4: very close to the line there, and it's hard to 608 00:26:53,320 --> 00:26:54,280 Speaker 4: know what to do. 609 00:26:54,440 --> 00:26:55,800 Speaker 3: With the total here. 610 00:26:56,040 --> 00:26:57,840 Speaker 4: If I had to say anything on the total, I 611 00:26:57,840 --> 00:27:01,359 Speaker 4: would probably say under that's just you know, because I'm 612 00:27:01,400 --> 00:27:05,040 Speaker 4: a wet blanket and that's my general inclination to root 613 00:27:05,080 --> 00:27:06,600 Speaker 4: against points. 614 00:27:07,720 --> 00:27:09,119 Speaker 2: Wow, how do you follow that? Fits? 615 00:27:09,160 --> 00:27:11,119 Speaker 1: I don't know, what do you think you is? 616 00:27:11,200 --> 00:27:11,560 Speaker 3: This is? 617 00:27:11,680 --> 00:27:13,040 Speaker 1: Do you want to ring out the wet blanket and 618 00:27:13,040 --> 00:27:14,439 Speaker 1: see if you got any Jews in this game? 619 00:27:14,800 --> 00:27:15,000 Speaker 5: Yeah? 620 00:27:15,040 --> 00:27:18,920 Speaker 6: Well, on Saturday when I was doing early lines projections, 621 00:27:19,000 --> 00:27:22,239 Speaker 6: like I had this at six points, Bengals favored by 622 00:27:22,280 --> 00:27:26,399 Speaker 6: six and after their flat performance in Dallas, after the Jets, 623 00:27:26,840 --> 00:27:29,680 Speaker 6: you know, inspired come from behind win that they got 624 00:27:29,720 --> 00:27:32,720 Speaker 6: because nick JOBB didn't know to go down and uh, 625 00:27:33,000 --> 00:27:34,040 Speaker 6: you know, run. 626 00:27:33,880 --> 00:27:34,480 Speaker 5: Out the clock. 627 00:27:36,040 --> 00:27:38,239 Speaker 6: It's moved a little off what I thought it should be, 628 00:27:38,480 --> 00:27:41,840 Speaker 6: and maybe it shouldn't because the Bengals know that if 629 00:27:41,880 --> 00:27:44,800 Speaker 6: they start zero to three in this AFC, as tough 630 00:27:44,840 --> 00:27:47,320 Speaker 6: as this conference is, there is no way they are 631 00:27:47,320 --> 00:27:50,000 Speaker 6: getting off the mat, making the playoffs not a chance. 632 00:27:50,480 --> 00:27:53,960 Speaker 6: So they absolutely have to win this game, you know, 633 00:27:54,359 --> 00:27:57,720 Speaker 6: like I think they're going to. They show their toughness 634 00:27:57,800 --> 00:28:01,280 Speaker 6: last last year, you know, making it all the way 635 00:28:01,320 --> 00:28:04,399 Speaker 6: to the Super Bowl with a lot of adversity, a 636 00:28:04,400 --> 00:28:07,280 Speaker 6: bad offensive line. Apparently they still have a bad offensive line. 637 00:28:07,320 --> 00:28:10,360 Speaker 6: But I think they do. I think they do pull 638 00:28:10,400 --> 00:28:13,680 Speaker 6: it together and you know, finally have a good offensive game. 639 00:28:13,680 --> 00:28:15,840 Speaker 6: They've just got too much on offense to be this 640 00:28:16,359 --> 00:28:17,000 Speaker 6: lack luster. 641 00:28:17,440 --> 00:28:19,119 Speaker 1: Well, the one thing about offensive line play too, it 642 00:28:19,119 --> 00:28:21,120 Speaker 1: takes those guys a while to jail. I mean, people 643 00:28:21,160 --> 00:28:23,560 Speaker 1: forget that you can have good pieces. But again, they've 644 00:28:23,560 --> 00:28:25,720 Speaker 1: all got to play together, and that's some things. Maybe 645 00:28:25,720 --> 00:28:28,240 Speaker 1: they improve the personnel. We looked at that too much, 646 00:28:28,280 --> 00:28:31,240 Speaker 1: but not enough time for this unit to really get 647 00:28:31,280 --> 00:28:33,040 Speaker 1: it all together. On the same page, let's go to 648 00:28:33,160 --> 00:28:35,400 Speaker 1: Las Vegas, who is winless. They are zero in two 649 00:28:36,240 --> 00:28:38,560 Speaker 1: against the Tennessee Titans. The over runner of this game 650 00:28:38,640 --> 00:28:41,680 Speaker 1: is forty six and a half. I don't know what 651 00:28:41,760 --> 00:28:44,160 Speaker 1: the line is currently, Freeman, if it's changed at all. 652 00:28:44,160 --> 00:28:46,240 Speaker 1: I know we're still waiting on the Tennessee Titans for tonight. 653 00:28:46,280 --> 00:28:49,200 Speaker 1: But your thoughts on this one, what you have it 654 00:28:49,280 --> 00:28:51,320 Speaker 1: in your magical spreadsheet to be. 655 00:28:52,560 --> 00:28:55,280 Speaker 4: Yeah, I think in the market right now, it's hovering 656 00:28:55,480 --> 00:28:57,520 Speaker 4: around to pick them, so, you know, like kind of 657 00:28:57,560 --> 00:28:59,800 Speaker 4: one on either side. And that's pretty much where I 658 00:28:59,840 --> 00:29:02,520 Speaker 4: have it. I have Tennessee favored by half a point. 659 00:29:03,360 --> 00:29:06,800 Speaker 4: I'm really not looking at this game for the side 660 00:29:07,040 --> 00:29:07,719 Speaker 4: or the total. 661 00:29:07,960 --> 00:29:10,840 Speaker 3: This is just kind of a nasty stay away affair 662 00:29:10,960 --> 00:29:11,200 Speaker 3: for me. 663 00:29:11,680 --> 00:29:13,760 Speaker 1: Okay, do you see this as a nasty stay away 664 00:29:13,840 --> 00:29:14,720 Speaker 1: coin flip as well? 665 00:29:15,840 --> 00:29:18,000 Speaker 5: No? I actually like the Titans in this game. 666 00:29:18,240 --> 00:29:21,120 Speaker 6: Like, I mean, all right, it was kind of a fluky, 667 00:29:21,200 --> 00:29:23,320 Speaker 6: but they were the number one seed in the AFC 668 00:29:23,520 --> 00:29:27,800 Speaker 6: playoffs last year and they're at home against a team 669 00:29:28,000 --> 00:29:29,920 Speaker 6: traveling coast to coast. 670 00:29:31,440 --> 00:29:33,240 Speaker 5: Coming off a really bad loss. 671 00:29:33,280 --> 00:29:35,440 Speaker 6: So, I mean, we don't know what sort of you know, 672 00:29:35,600 --> 00:29:38,280 Speaker 6: mental frame the Raiders are going to be in after this, 673 00:29:38,400 --> 00:29:42,760 Speaker 6: after just totally frittering away that game against the Cardinals. 674 00:29:43,240 --> 00:29:45,640 Speaker 5: Like and I don't know, I think Frabel is a 675 00:29:45,680 --> 00:29:46,200 Speaker 5: good coach. 676 00:29:47,440 --> 00:29:52,400 Speaker 6: I know the Titans have taken some personnel hits, you know. 677 00:29:52,440 --> 00:29:54,240 Speaker 6: I know they were kind of a fluky number one 678 00:29:54,240 --> 00:29:57,240 Speaker 6: seed last year. They weren't really that strong, but like, 679 00:29:57,800 --> 00:30:00,120 Speaker 6: this just seems kind of disrespectful to the type and 680 00:30:00,360 --> 00:30:02,520 Speaker 6: maybe giving a little bit too much credit to an 681 00:30:02,560 --> 00:30:04,720 Speaker 6: zero to two Raiders team. So I don't understand this 682 00:30:04,800 --> 00:30:06,360 Speaker 6: line at all, and I'm going to hit the Titans 683 00:30:06,400 --> 00:30:06,920 Speaker 6: pretty hard. 684 00:30:07,720 --> 00:30:08,520 Speaker 2: I can understand that. 685 00:30:08,920 --> 00:30:11,040 Speaker 1: Yeah, maybe the Raiders hype was a little too much 686 00:30:11,080 --> 00:30:14,080 Speaker 1: too soon. We shall see Philadelphia Eagles, though they have 687 00:30:14,120 --> 00:30:15,960 Speaker 1: a lot of hype as well, and they've played pretty 688 00:30:16,000 --> 00:30:17,840 Speaker 1: well here at least to start. We'll see what tonight 689 00:30:17,880 --> 00:30:20,960 Speaker 1: brings against a challenging offense in the Vikings. But in 690 00:30:21,000 --> 00:30:23,280 Speaker 1: the early going on the road in Division, this matchup 691 00:30:23,280 --> 00:30:26,200 Speaker 1: against Washington, they are four point favorites. The number is 692 00:30:26,320 --> 00:30:30,120 Speaker 1: fifty on the button here fits. Do you see any 693 00:30:30,120 --> 00:30:33,200 Speaker 1: early value in this Eagles Washington Commanders game. 694 00:30:33,600 --> 00:30:35,400 Speaker 6: No, not on the line, not on the total. It 695 00:30:35,440 --> 00:30:39,240 Speaker 6: pretty much squared with what my projections were. And boy, 696 00:30:40,200 --> 00:30:43,560 Speaker 6: Washington better figure out how to stop slot receivers because 697 00:30:43,640 --> 00:30:47,600 Speaker 6: Christian Kirk and aman Ross Saint Brown have just gutted them. 698 00:30:47,840 --> 00:30:50,000 Speaker 6: Maybe that means, you know, Kwais Watkins is going to 699 00:30:50,000 --> 00:30:51,040 Speaker 6: have one hundred and fifty yards. 700 00:30:52,400 --> 00:30:53,600 Speaker 1: I don't know if I want to put money in 701 00:30:53,640 --> 00:30:55,680 Speaker 1: that one, but you know, those two wide receivers are 702 00:30:55,680 --> 00:30:58,320 Speaker 1: also pretty talented in all respect to them as well. 703 00:30:58,760 --> 00:30:59,960 Speaker 1: And did you see this when you were. 704 00:31:00,520 --> 00:31:01,240 Speaker 2: This game yesterday? 705 00:31:01,360 --> 00:31:03,600 Speaker 1: Fits too because we talked about Wenz, you know, slinging 706 00:31:03,600 --> 00:31:05,200 Speaker 1: the ball over place, but there was a lot of 707 00:31:05,240 --> 00:31:07,680 Speaker 1: inaccuracies there too. I mean there were balls where his 708 00:31:07,720 --> 00:31:10,120 Speaker 1: receivers are diving, where the ball's on the right spot. 709 00:31:10,280 --> 00:31:12,800 Speaker 1: I feel like, I feel like there's almost a weird 710 00:31:12,920 --> 00:31:15,800 Speaker 1: illusion right now with Carson Wentz that you see the totals, 711 00:31:16,000 --> 00:31:18,480 Speaker 1: but if you're watching how he gets there, it's not 712 00:31:18,520 --> 00:31:21,200 Speaker 1: necessarily all that pretty and he's just waiting for a 713 00:31:21,240 --> 00:31:23,040 Speaker 1: mistake with a better defense. 714 00:31:23,200 --> 00:31:27,080 Speaker 6: It seemed like it, and the whole Washington offense, I thought, 715 00:31:27,120 --> 00:31:30,360 Speaker 6: in that first half against Detroit look just so vanilla, 716 00:31:30,520 --> 00:31:33,320 Speaker 6: and like Scott Turner was not calling a good game 717 00:31:33,440 --> 00:31:35,000 Speaker 6: early on in that when it seemed like they made 718 00:31:35,000 --> 00:31:38,800 Speaker 6: some adjustments and got some things cranked up after halftime, 719 00:31:38,840 --> 00:31:42,320 Speaker 6: but like the they did come out with a strangely 720 00:31:42,640 --> 00:31:45,840 Speaker 6: vanilla game plan and the offense did not look good. 721 00:31:46,960 --> 00:31:49,720 Speaker 6: But to Carson Wentz's credit, he picked up the pace 722 00:31:49,760 --> 00:31:52,640 Speaker 6: a little bit when he needed to, got him back 723 00:31:52,640 --> 00:31:56,080 Speaker 6: in that game. But yeah, I still think they're kind 724 00:31:56,080 --> 00:31:58,840 Speaker 6: of out gunned here against the Eagles, who you know, 725 00:31:59,040 --> 00:32:00,440 Speaker 6: certainly have a lot of ways as they can be 726 00:32:00,520 --> 00:32:01,680 Speaker 6: here on offense. 727 00:32:01,680 --> 00:32:02,600 Speaker 2: They might be Outgune. 728 00:32:02,640 --> 00:32:04,720 Speaker 1: But Freeman, do you see any value in this line 729 00:32:04,720 --> 00:32:05,840 Speaker 1: at four or the fifty? 730 00:32:06,560 --> 00:32:09,000 Speaker 3: Yeah, a little, and I don't like it. 731 00:32:09,080 --> 00:32:11,480 Speaker 4: I have this at two point two five, and so 732 00:32:11,760 --> 00:32:14,280 Speaker 4: you know, going through the three to the four, I mean, 733 00:32:14,280 --> 00:32:18,200 Speaker 4: that's not insignificant value, but I don't want to bet it, 734 00:32:18,240 --> 00:32:21,080 Speaker 4: and so I'm gonna look a little bit more, you know, 735 00:32:21,200 --> 00:32:23,800 Speaker 4: depending on what we see tonight with Monday Night football. 736 00:32:24,560 --> 00:32:27,480 Speaker 4: I think Philly wins that game, and you know, if 737 00:32:27,520 --> 00:32:30,000 Speaker 4: they crush, I think this number moves up to five 738 00:32:30,080 --> 00:32:32,600 Speaker 4: or six, and I think it's likelier to go to 739 00:32:32,680 --> 00:32:35,800 Speaker 4: five or six than to go to three if the 740 00:32:35,840 --> 00:32:38,760 Speaker 4: Eagles lose. So I even just kind of thinking about 741 00:32:38,800 --> 00:32:41,680 Speaker 4: where the market might be going. Even though I'm showing 742 00:32:41,760 --> 00:32:45,240 Speaker 4: value on Washington, I actually might take the Eagles because 743 00:32:45,240 --> 00:32:47,720 Speaker 4: I think the line's gonna move fair enough. 744 00:32:47,800 --> 00:32:50,280 Speaker 1: Let's move on to the next contest here, still waiting 745 00:32:50,280 --> 00:32:52,360 Speaker 1: for a little bit more clarification when comes to Justin Herbert, 746 00:32:52,360 --> 00:32:55,240 Speaker 1: who has that rib injury. Regardless, they are seven point favorites, 747 00:32:55,320 --> 00:32:58,440 Speaker 1: right now against the Jacksonville Jaguars, who have you know, 748 00:32:58,680 --> 00:33:01,480 Speaker 1: pretty respectable outing on Sunday, that's for sure. 749 00:33:01,480 --> 00:33:02,560 Speaker 2: The number is forty eight. 750 00:33:03,360 --> 00:33:06,600 Speaker 1: Friedman, do you think the Jacksonville travels at all? Is 751 00:33:06,600 --> 00:33:09,080 Speaker 1: this a trap game at all for LA? After you 752 00:33:09,120 --> 00:33:11,640 Speaker 1: know a little bit of that injury to Herbert, you 753 00:33:11,680 --> 00:33:15,000 Speaker 1: have Keenan Allen on the shelf, you have a huge 754 00:33:15,000 --> 00:33:16,800 Speaker 1: matchup where they came up a little short. Do you 755 00:33:16,840 --> 00:33:19,200 Speaker 1: think maybe they're not paying enough attention to Jacksonville and 756 00:33:19,200 --> 00:33:21,719 Speaker 1: this can actually be something where that's seven is more 757 00:33:21,760 --> 00:33:22,880 Speaker 1: appealing than we realized. 758 00:33:24,080 --> 00:33:26,440 Speaker 4: I think, Man, I want, I want to be on 759 00:33:26,600 --> 00:33:28,800 Speaker 4: LA in this game. I mean, I've already bet it. 760 00:33:28,880 --> 00:33:31,760 Speaker 4: I was the donkey who bet the look aheadline and 761 00:33:31,840 --> 00:33:34,520 Speaker 4: it didn't work out for me in that instance, in 762 00:33:34,520 --> 00:33:37,360 Speaker 4: part because of the Justin Herbert injury and because Jacksonville 763 00:33:37,360 --> 00:33:40,120 Speaker 4: looked really good and we two. But I have this 764 00:33:40,240 --> 00:33:42,920 Speaker 4: number at nine point seventy five, and so I see 765 00:33:42,920 --> 00:33:46,880 Speaker 4: pretty significant value on it at seven. And talking with 766 00:33:47,240 --> 00:33:51,560 Speaker 4: Deepak Chona, who you know, does medical analysis, he talked 767 00:33:51,560 --> 00:33:53,800 Speaker 4: about Justin Herbert and the rib injury and how there's 768 00:33:53,840 --> 00:33:56,080 Speaker 4: a decent chance, a pret decent chance. He plays in 769 00:33:56,080 --> 00:33:58,280 Speaker 4: Week three, so I think this number could move. 770 00:33:59,040 --> 00:34:01,680 Speaker 1: Okay, what are your thoughts on this number as well? 771 00:34:01,720 --> 00:34:05,440 Speaker 1: Because Jacksonville certainly showed you that, you know, defensively, they're improved. 772 00:34:05,480 --> 00:34:06,680 Speaker 1: I think year over year, I think we can all 773 00:34:06,720 --> 00:34:08,879 Speaker 1: agree on that with some of the picks that they've made. 774 00:34:09,719 --> 00:34:11,600 Speaker 1: What are your thoughts on this seven here? Is this 775 00:34:11,640 --> 00:34:13,080 Speaker 1: too big of a number or is it just right? 776 00:34:13,719 --> 00:34:13,959 Speaker 5: No? 777 00:34:14,080 --> 00:34:16,000 Speaker 6: I mean I see value in the Chargers too. I'm 778 00:34:16,000 --> 00:34:17,880 Speaker 6: surprised it's not higher after. 779 00:34:17,719 --> 00:34:18,239 Speaker 5: What they did. 780 00:34:18,400 --> 00:34:21,799 Speaker 6: I mean, they almost scored a monumental victory in Kansas City. 781 00:34:21,840 --> 00:34:23,520 Speaker 6: They outplayed the Chiefs in that game. 782 00:34:23,560 --> 00:34:27,520 Speaker 2: And last year in Kansas City, remember, I mean they did. 783 00:34:27,760 --> 00:34:29,640 Speaker 1: They did took old news for them, right, and. 784 00:34:29,880 --> 00:34:32,520 Speaker 6: If Gerald Everett had just a little bit more stamina, 785 00:34:32,640 --> 00:34:34,360 Speaker 6: they would have won this game. I mean that the 786 00:34:34,360 --> 00:34:38,920 Speaker 6: one hundred yard pick six starting. Yeah, And like, are 787 00:34:38,960 --> 00:34:42,279 Speaker 6: there any doubts that Herbert is going to play in 788 00:34:42,280 --> 00:34:45,440 Speaker 6: this game? After the just warrior effort he made, like 789 00:34:45,520 --> 00:34:48,040 Speaker 6: the guy could barely stand upright, and then he comes 790 00:34:48,080 --> 00:34:50,319 Speaker 6: back and leads a touchdown drive at the end of 791 00:34:50,320 --> 00:34:53,680 Speaker 6: the game, like to just fight and try to keep 792 00:34:53,680 --> 00:34:57,680 Speaker 6: the Chargers in that as good as the Jaguars looked 793 00:34:58,120 --> 00:35:00,360 Speaker 6: against the Colts, we know the Colts were kind of 794 00:35:00,360 --> 00:35:04,319 Speaker 6: broken this week, so like, I don't know if this 795 00:35:04,480 --> 00:35:07,760 Speaker 6: is the Chargers not getting enough respect the Jaguars getting 796 00:35:07,760 --> 00:35:10,759 Speaker 6: too much respect, But like I mean, on Saturday, I 797 00:35:10,880 --> 00:35:14,000 Speaker 6: projected this as like a double digit game, like maybe 798 00:35:14,000 --> 00:35:17,560 Speaker 6: it was nine and a half, but yeah, I'm hammering 799 00:35:17,600 --> 00:35:18,840 Speaker 6: the Chargers in this one. 800 00:35:19,160 --> 00:35:21,600 Speaker 1: Los Angeles Rams got back on track yesterday with the 801 00:35:21,640 --> 00:35:23,520 Speaker 1: first win of the season, So the champs are going 802 00:35:23,520 --> 00:35:25,040 Speaker 1: to be four and a half point favorites as they 803 00:35:25,040 --> 00:35:28,080 Speaker 1: head to Arizona, Arizona with a comeback victory of their own. 804 00:35:28,120 --> 00:35:29,960 Speaker 2: This number is fifty one, pat. 805 00:35:30,000 --> 00:35:32,680 Speaker 1: Is there any appeal in the over under right now 806 00:35:32,680 --> 00:35:34,640 Speaker 1: at the fifty as it's set right now? 807 00:35:36,000 --> 00:35:38,200 Speaker 6: Yeah, So I saw it on DraftKings at fifty one 808 00:35:38,280 --> 00:35:39,680 Speaker 6: and a half, and if I can get it there 809 00:35:39,680 --> 00:35:44,759 Speaker 6: that high, I am hitting the underhard because the Cardinals, 810 00:35:44,920 --> 00:35:48,560 Speaker 6: I mean, their comeback yesterday was like Kyler Murray drawing 811 00:35:48,640 --> 00:35:50,760 Speaker 6: up plays of the dirt. Okay, I'm gonna run around 812 00:35:51,360 --> 00:35:56,640 Speaker 6: like crazy for yeah, yeah exactly. So that was not 813 00:35:56,840 --> 00:35:59,839 Speaker 6: like a well orchestrated offense for the Cardinals, who looked 814 00:35:59,880 --> 00:36:02,719 Speaker 6: like garbage for most of that game. The Rams can't 815 00:36:02,760 --> 00:36:05,239 Speaker 6: run the ball, like they have no running game. Their 816 00:36:05,280 --> 00:36:08,400 Speaker 6: offensive line just can't get any sort of push to 817 00:36:08,440 --> 00:36:11,160 Speaker 6: get these backs going, So, like, I don't know how 818 00:36:11,160 --> 00:36:12,560 Speaker 6: this one gets over the total. 819 00:36:13,280 --> 00:36:15,640 Speaker 1: All right, Freeman, do you see this the same way 820 00:36:15,640 --> 00:36:17,279 Speaker 1: as that fifty one is actually an under? 821 00:36:18,520 --> 00:36:18,880 Speaker 3: Yeah? 822 00:36:19,000 --> 00:36:22,160 Speaker 4: Let me look here at the at the projection really quick. 823 00:36:22,239 --> 00:36:26,000 Speaker 4: I have it at fifty point four, So if I 824 00:36:26,040 --> 00:36:29,000 Speaker 4: were leaning in one direction, it would be the under. 825 00:36:29,040 --> 00:36:31,000 Speaker 4: And I you know, actually I'm thinking about I do 826 00:36:31,120 --> 00:36:34,080 Speaker 4: like pats analysis on that I probably will bet the 827 00:36:34,160 --> 00:36:38,160 Speaker 4: under in this spot, because, yeah, I think there are 828 00:36:38,280 --> 00:36:41,800 Speaker 4: significant hindrances to both offenses. And I think, you know, 829 00:36:41,880 --> 00:36:44,239 Speaker 4: obviously the defense for the Rams not as good as 830 00:36:44,239 --> 00:36:46,080 Speaker 4: it used to be, but still pretty good. And with 831 00:36:47,120 --> 00:36:51,680 Speaker 4: JJ Watt returning, you know, the defense for the Cardinals 832 00:36:51,719 --> 00:36:54,000 Speaker 4: getting a little bit healthier. I think they should also 833 00:36:54,040 --> 00:36:56,040 Speaker 4: be better than they were the past couple of weeks. 834 00:36:56,520 --> 00:36:59,160 Speaker 1: Okay, let's move on to the next one here. I 835 00:36:59,200 --> 00:37:00,759 Speaker 1: know this is the most seting game of the week 836 00:37:00,800 --> 00:37:03,000 Speaker 1: for you too. It's the Atlanta Falcons oh and two 837 00:37:03,040 --> 00:37:06,160 Speaker 1: traveling to the Seattle Seahawks, oil Boy, Does it get 838 00:37:06,160 --> 00:37:08,160 Speaker 1: any better than this? Canna get any worse than this? 839 00:37:08,200 --> 00:37:08,600 Speaker 2: I don't know. 840 00:37:08,880 --> 00:37:11,160 Speaker 1: Minus three and a half the Seattle Seahawks are favorites. 841 00:37:11,200 --> 00:37:13,400 Speaker 1: Forty two and a half is the over under freedmand 842 00:37:13,440 --> 00:37:13,920 Speaker 1: your thoughts? 843 00:37:14,840 --> 00:37:17,960 Speaker 4: Yeah, I have this at two point seventy five, and 844 00:37:18,120 --> 00:37:21,040 Speaker 4: so if it's you know, three and a half, in theory, 845 00:37:21,239 --> 00:37:22,960 Speaker 4: there's some value in this game. 846 00:37:23,239 --> 00:37:24,759 Speaker 3: But I'm you know. 847 00:37:24,800 --> 00:37:27,360 Speaker 4: Not really looking to take any position on it. I 848 00:37:27,360 --> 00:37:30,880 Speaker 4: think it's it's a pretty disgusting game here. But you 849 00:37:30,880 --> 00:37:34,840 Speaker 4: know what, Actually, we'll say what people will say, we 850 00:37:34,920 --> 00:37:39,080 Speaker 4: should try to pay attention to what is happening with 851 00:37:39,239 --> 00:37:43,480 Speaker 4: Atlanta's travel situation because they were just on the west coast. 852 00:37:43,800 --> 00:37:49,160 Speaker 4: Are they staying out west and practicing there and so 853 00:37:49,560 --> 00:37:52,440 Speaker 4: they avoid the travel back east and then back west? 854 00:37:53,080 --> 00:37:55,759 Speaker 4: I think that is what they might be doing, but 855 00:37:55,840 --> 00:37:57,800 Speaker 4: I don't have verification on that. So I'm gonna do 856 00:37:57,840 --> 00:37:59,759 Speaker 4: a little bit of research on that, and if we 857 00:37:59,800 --> 00:38:02,960 Speaker 4: find that they're not at the massive travel disadvantage that 858 00:38:03,040 --> 00:38:06,360 Speaker 4: I think they normally would be, then maybe I am 859 00:38:06,400 --> 00:38:07,799 Speaker 4: betting on Atlanta in this book. 860 00:38:07,800 --> 00:38:11,040 Speaker 2: Okay, that's a nice little tidbit. How about you there? 861 00:38:11,080 --> 00:38:14,560 Speaker 1: You check your Travelocity account there. Pat Waal Friedan was talking, 862 00:38:14,560 --> 00:38:15,880 Speaker 1: you know where everyone's going to be. What do you 863 00:38:15,880 --> 00:38:16,840 Speaker 1: think about this one? 864 00:38:17,160 --> 00:38:19,319 Speaker 6: Yeah, thanks Friedman for giving me one more thing to 865 00:38:19,400 --> 00:38:22,160 Speaker 6: track this week. But yeah, I am going to keep 866 00:38:22,160 --> 00:38:24,640 Speaker 6: an eye on that, like if I don't want to 867 00:38:24,640 --> 00:38:27,759 Speaker 6: touch Atlanta if they are going back home and then 868 00:38:27,840 --> 00:38:32,040 Speaker 6: flying back coast to coast again. So yeah, like there's 869 00:38:32,120 --> 00:38:33,840 Speaker 6: just not a lot of appeal at forty two and 870 00:38:33,920 --> 00:38:37,160 Speaker 6: a half. I might be tempted to lean under here, 871 00:38:37,320 --> 00:38:41,080 Speaker 6: like two offenses that just man. Seattle's offense is not 872 00:38:41,200 --> 00:38:46,680 Speaker 6: pretty right now, So yeah, I don't know, maybe just 873 00:38:46,719 --> 00:38:50,799 Speaker 6: a smidge of value in the Seahawks half a point 874 00:38:50,880 --> 00:38:54,280 Speaker 6: or so, but like, I'm I'm disinclined to do anything 875 00:38:54,320 --> 00:38:56,799 Speaker 6: with this game as of now. Kind of nice that 876 00:38:56,800 --> 00:39:00,200 Speaker 6: they're grouping the some of the gross teams together this week, 877 00:39:00,239 --> 00:39:03,440 Speaker 6: so you know, Houston and Chicago can play a competia 878 00:39:03,800 --> 00:39:04,480 Speaker 6: focus on. 879 00:39:04,480 --> 00:39:06,960 Speaker 1: The better games, which same way in Tampa Bay, the 880 00:39:06,960 --> 00:39:09,680 Speaker 1: Battle of Bays, you would think in theory would be 881 00:39:10,080 --> 00:39:12,040 Speaker 1: the Bucks are three and a half point favorites. Forty 882 00:39:12,040 --> 00:39:16,000 Speaker 1: eight is the number now obviously the Green Bay Packer defense. 883 00:39:16,160 --> 00:39:17,719 Speaker 2: You know, came back to life last night. 884 00:39:17,880 --> 00:39:20,600 Speaker 1: The Tampa Bay defense was ferocious obviously in that game 885 00:39:20,600 --> 00:39:21,920 Speaker 1: where they really had to step up with all the 886 00:39:21,920 --> 00:39:24,840 Speaker 1: injuries they had on offense. So pat, I mean, this 887 00:39:24,960 --> 00:39:26,920 Speaker 1: number is at forty eight. I think everybody's looking at 888 00:39:26,960 --> 00:39:29,800 Speaker 1: these two teams and saying, Okay, maybe a defensive struggle, 889 00:39:29,800 --> 00:39:32,240 Speaker 1: which means, I guess in twenty twenty two, this game's 890 00:39:32,280 --> 00:39:33,600 Speaker 1: gonna go well over sixty points. 891 00:39:33,640 --> 00:39:33,800 Speaker 3: Is that? 892 00:39:34,160 --> 00:39:34,320 Speaker 2: You know? 893 00:39:36,680 --> 00:39:39,400 Speaker 6: Yeah, kind of a low total for these two teams, 894 00:39:39,480 --> 00:39:41,440 Speaker 6: you would think, But I like, I don't know if 895 00:39:41,520 --> 00:39:45,120 Speaker 6: I can argue with that too much. Like the Tampa 896 00:39:45,200 --> 00:39:47,640 Speaker 6: offense hasn't looked that good. They're having problems with the 897 00:39:47,719 --> 00:39:50,560 Speaker 6: running game. We know they've taken some hits on the 898 00:39:50,640 --> 00:39:53,919 Speaker 6: offensive line. The passing game hasn't looked that crisp either, 899 00:39:53,960 --> 00:39:55,719 Speaker 6: and they've got a lot of injury problems. They're not 900 00:39:55,800 --> 00:39:58,439 Speaker 6: going to Chris Godwin for that game. Who knows whether 901 00:39:58,520 --> 00:40:02,120 Speaker 6: the of Julio Jones, Russell Gage isn't one hundred percent healthy, 902 00:40:02,280 --> 00:40:07,040 Speaker 6: Mike Evans isn't one hundred percent healthy. So yeah, like 903 00:40:07,120 --> 00:40:11,200 Speaker 6: I'm disinclined to take the Packers even with those issues. 904 00:40:11,280 --> 00:40:14,040 Speaker 6: The Buccaneers are having Obviously the Packers have some issues 905 00:40:14,080 --> 00:40:17,400 Speaker 6: of their own. No David Bacciari their outstanding left tackle, 906 00:40:18,160 --> 00:40:20,840 Speaker 6: and you know, just kind of a muddled mass. 907 00:40:20,680 --> 00:40:21,440 Speaker 5: At wide receiver. 908 00:40:21,920 --> 00:40:25,520 Speaker 6: Interesting how Aaron Rodgers just spread the ball around so much, 909 00:40:25,560 --> 00:40:28,160 Speaker 6: didn't need to throw very much last night. But I 910 00:40:28,200 --> 00:40:29,880 Speaker 6: don't know if anyone got more than like four or 911 00:40:29,920 --> 00:40:32,200 Speaker 6: five targets in that game last night. 912 00:40:32,280 --> 00:40:36,920 Speaker 1: So no, so so because of that, right, because of 913 00:40:36,960 --> 00:40:39,520 Speaker 1: what we saw last night, does that same game plan 914 00:40:39,719 --> 00:40:42,880 Speaker 1: track pad for this contest necessarily, Like maybe he didn't 915 00:40:42,920 --> 00:40:44,560 Speaker 1: have to do that much to beat the Bears, And 916 00:40:45,000 --> 00:40:47,200 Speaker 1: I guess that's the question. I feel like this is 917 00:40:47,239 --> 00:40:49,480 Speaker 1: the biggest trap game where we go, oh, yeah, these 918 00:40:49,480 --> 00:40:52,160 Speaker 1: two good defenses and oh yeah, you know it's gonna 919 00:40:52,160 --> 00:40:53,920 Speaker 1: be a grinding kind of game, and then we look 920 00:40:54,000 --> 00:40:56,600 Speaker 1: up and we go, oh, look, there's a ridiculous total 921 00:40:56,600 --> 00:40:58,239 Speaker 1: that we never saw coming. I feel like this is 922 00:40:58,280 --> 00:41:00,840 Speaker 1: that game where we completely get a fall sense of security. 923 00:41:01,480 --> 00:41:03,160 Speaker 1: Do you feel any of that concern? 924 00:41:03,680 --> 00:41:06,040 Speaker 6: Not really, because these are two good pass defenses and 925 00:41:06,120 --> 00:41:09,120 Speaker 6: I don't think either offense is really capable of lighting 926 00:41:09,200 --> 00:41:11,480 Speaker 6: up the other defense. So like, I think this total 927 00:41:11,600 --> 00:41:14,279 Speaker 6: is about right. I think this line is probably about right. 928 00:41:14,320 --> 00:41:15,719 Speaker 6: I don't really see any value. 929 00:41:15,520 --> 00:41:18,120 Speaker 1: Here, Freeman, any value on the battle of the base. 930 00:41:18,719 --> 00:41:21,160 Speaker 4: Yeah, as we were talking, I bet the under here 931 00:41:22,200 --> 00:41:26,359 Speaker 4: and it's under forty six is the highest that I'm seeing. 932 00:41:26,400 --> 00:41:29,240 Speaker 4: It's forty six at DraftKings, forty six at bet MGM 933 00:41:29,400 --> 00:41:33,200 Speaker 4: right now. And I think this number will probably move 934 00:41:33,320 --> 00:41:35,840 Speaker 4: down for a couple of reasons. One, you know, injury 935 00:41:35,920 --> 00:41:39,800 Speaker 4: issues with Tampa Bay. Two, we've just seen market movement 936 00:41:39,920 --> 00:41:43,040 Speaker 4: to the under kind of widespread for the past couple 937 00:41:43,080 --> 00:41:45,399 Speaker 4: of weeks. And then three, you know, we have two 938 00:41:45,640 --> 00:41:48,800 Speaker 4: good defenses. I think Tampa Bay's defense is, if not 939 00:41:48,960 --> 00:41:51,800 Speaker 4: the best in the league, top two, top three. And 940 00:41:51,920 --> 00:41:55,239 Speaker 4: then two offenses that over the past couple of weeks 941 00:41:55,280 --> 00:41:58,680 Speaker 4: have shown that they are very comfortable running the ball, 942 00:41:58,920 --> 00:42:01,440 Speaker 4: even though they have two Hall of Fame quarterbacks. And 943 00:42:01,520 --> 00:42:04,000 Speaker 4: so I think the number here, the total is going 944 00:42:04,040 --> 00:42:06,319 Speaker 4: to be a little bit inflated. And then I also 945 00:42:06,440 --> 00:42:08,680 Speaker 4: see some value on Green Bay. Like I don't think 946 00:42:08,760 --> 00:42:12,239 Speaker 4: we've seen anything to this point that would make us 947 00:42:12,320 --> 00:42:16,480 Speaker 4: believe that when these two teams are constituted with the 948 00:42:16,480 --> 00:42:19,200 Speaker 4: players they're probably going to have in Week three that 949 00:42:19,360 --> 00:42:22,160 Speaker 4: Tampa Bay is significantly better than Green Bay. I think 950 00:42:22,200 --> 00:42:24,640 Speaker 4: they are about even, and so I will take Green 951 00:42:24,719 --> 00:42:25,760 Speaker 4: Bay here in this spot. 952 00:42:26,480 --> 00:42:28,120 Speaker 1: Next one on the board here, we're gonna go to 953 00:42:28,239 --> 00:42:31,719 Speaker 1: Sunday Night Football the Denver Broncos San Francisco forty nine Ers. 954 00:42:31,760 --> 00:42:34,080 Speaker 1: Jamy Garoppolo will be the quarterback under center for the 955 00:42:34,200 --> 00:42:37,520 Speaker 1: foreseeable future for San Francisco rest of season, at least 956 00:42:37,560 --> 00:42:40,279 Speaker 1: for sure. Two and a half point underdog Zio going 957 00:42:40,320 --> 00:42:43,719 Speaker 1: to Denver forty three is the number. I'm gonna ask you, 958 00:42:43,800 --> 00:42:47,440 Speaker 1: this is the line wrong here, Friedman? Should the San 959 00:42:47,440 --> 00:42:49,759 Speaker 1: Francisco forty nine ers actually be favored? I know you're 960 00:42:50,040 --> 00:42:52,800 Speaker 1: you chuckle, but I honestly feel like the line is 961 00:42:52,840 --> 00:42:53,239 Speaker 1: wrong here. 962 00:42:53,640 --> 00:42:56,520 Speaker 4: Yeah, I have this as a pick them, and if 963 00:42:56,600 --> 00:42:58,560 Speaker 4: I had to favor one of them, it would be 964 00:42:58,640 --> 00:43:01,879 Speaker 4: the forty nine ers because I adjusted the forty nine 965 00:43:01,960 --> 00:43:05,480 Speaker 4: ers up half a point now that they have Garoppolo 966 00:43:05,640 --> 00:43:08,239 Speaker 4: instead of Trey Lance. And to be honest, I'm I 967 00:43:08,400 --> 00:43:12,560 Speaker 4: maybe haven't adjusted them upwards enough, like it should maybe 968 00:43:12,640 --> 00:43:15,279 Speaker 4: be er point seventy five points or one point that 969 00:43:15,360 --> 00:43:18,440 Speaker 4: I'm adjusting them, and based on what we've seen the 970 00:43:18,520 --> 00:43:23,000 Speaker 4: past couple of weeks. I have adjusted Denver down and 971 00:43:23,760 --> 00:43:28,279 Speaker 4: they have significant injury issues heading into this game, you know, 972 00:43:28,480 --> 00:43:31,040 Speaker 4: So let me see if I can pull this up 973 00:43:31,320 --> 00:43:34,800 Speaker 4: really quick. Yeah, the guys, the guys that they have 974 00:43:35,080 --> 00:43:38,879 Speaker 4: out or at risk of being out this upcoming week, 975 00:43:39,360 --> 00:43:42,040 Speaker 4: Jerry Judy, you know, their number two, number one wide 976 00:43:42,080 --> 00:43:45,960 Speaker 4: receiver kJ Hamler was out last week. Patrick certain their 977 00:43:46,040 --> 00:43:50,200 Speaker 4: number one cornerback, right tackle Billy Turner has yet to 978 00:43:50,239 --> 00:43:53,120 Speaker 4: play this year. Like, not all of those guys are 979 00:43:53,200 --> 00:43:56,719 Speaker 4: going to return this next week, and that means, you know, 980 00:43:57,160 --> 00:43:59,319 Speaker 4: I'm going to bump them down even a little bit 981 00:43:59,400 --> 00:44:03,080 Speaker 4: more as the week it's going. So, Yeah, I think 982 00:44:03,440 --> 00:44:06,239 Speaker 4: that the forty nine ers should be slight favorites in 983 00:44:06,320 --> 00:44:08,400 Speaker 4: this game. At best. I think it should be a 984 00:44:08,440 --> 00:44:10,960 Speaker 4: pick them. So I will very much take the two 985 00:44:11,000 --> 00:44:12,600 Speaker 4: and a half points that we have in the market. 986 00:44:13,239 --> 00:44:15,080 Speaker 2: Yeah, to me, this one just looks completely wrong. 987 00:44:15,120 --> 00:44:15,319 Speaker 3: Path. 988 00:44:15,360 --> 00:44:16,160 Speaker 2: Do you see the way we do? 989 00:44:17,320 --> 00:44:19,400 Speaker 6: You know, I think Friedman has talked me into this. 990 00:44:19,520 --> 00:44:21,239 Speaker 6: I saw maybe a little bit of value on the 991 00:44:21,280 --> 00:44:22,920 Speaker 6: forty nine ers. Now I think I might have to 992 00:44:23,000 --> 00:44:25,920 Speaker 6: hit this one immediately, especially if you could promise me 993 00:44:26,120 --> 00:44:29,919 Speaker 6: that Nathaniel Hackett caused at least one third and short 994 00:44:30,000 --> 00:44:31,200 Speaker 6: reverse to Andrew back. 995 00:44:32,200 --> 00:44:33,279 Speaker 3: I'll tell you what he has. 996 00:44:33,200 --> 00:44:35,680 Speaker 1: Struggled so far in early going as a head coach. 997 00:44:35,840 --> 00:44:37,600 Speaker 1: I think we can agree on that, and you can 998 00:44:37,640 --> 00:44:39,920 Speaker 1: see some issues there. I think across the board, some 999 00:44:39,960 --> 00:44:41,800 Speaker 1: of the game planning, from the play calling and just 1000 00:44:41,960 --> 00:44:43,360 Speaker 1: overall preparedness. 1001 00:44:43,400 --> 00:44:44,760 Speaker 2: I would say the Broncos. 1002 00:44:44,440 --> 00:44:47,319 Speaker 6: Feels like, yeah, and you know this is another one, 1003 00:44:47,440 --> 00:44:49,680 Speaker 6: Joe like where there's gonna be some pressure on Denver 1004 00:44:49,760 --> 00:44:52,120 Speaker 6: because if they don't come out, well, they know they're 1005 00:44:52,120 --> 00:44:54,839 Speaker 6: going to get booed right away. Like those fans were 1006 00:44:54,880 --> 00:44:56,680 Speaker 6: in kind of a booing mood for most of that 1007 00:44:56,800 --> 00:45:01,279 Speaker 6: game against the Texans on Sunday, So like I could 1008 00:45:01,320 --> 00:45:04,359 Speaker 6: see there not being really any home field advantage at 1009 00:45:04,400 --> 00:45:05,320 Speaker 6: all for the Broncos. 1010 00:45:05,360 --> 00:45:09,600 Speaker 1: Here, let's move on to the final game. We've got 1011 00:45:09,680 --> 00:45:13,800 Speaker 1: Monday Night Football, the Cowboys and Giants. Of course, nobody 1012 00:45:13,880 --> 00:45:15,120 Speaker 1: knows what to do with this one, so of course 1013 00:45:15,160 --> 00:45:17,800 Speaker 1: they just slapped a three point favorite on the Giants 1014 00:45:18,080 --> 00:45:19,960 Speaker 1: and then thirty nine and a half is the number. 1015 00:45:20,520 --> 00:45:21,960 Speaker 1: Pat I got no love for this game. 1016 00:45:21,960 --> 00:45:23,440 Speaker 2: I got nothing to do with this, how about you? 1017 00:45:25,120 --> 00:45:28,040 Speaker 5: You know, I kind of like Dallas a little bit here. 1018 00:45:29,239 --> 00:45:33,000 Speaker 6: Daniel Jones still a little bit loose with the ball still, 1019 00:45:33,480 --> 00:45:35,719 Speaker 6: you know, not the playmaker, you know, and who's he 1020 00:45:35,760 --> 00:45:38,520 Speaker 6: gonna make plays with? Like Kenny Galladay apparently packed up 1021 00:45:38,560 --> 00:45:42,200 Speaker 6: his locker after the game after getting two snaps Kidarius 1022 00:45:42,280 --> 00:45:43,920 Speaker 6: Tony likes. 1023 00:45:43,960 --> 00:45:46,359 Speaker 5: I think he did he did well. 1024 00:45:46,920 --> 00:45:49,879 Speaker 6: There's just not much firepower on the Giants side other 1025 00:45:49,960 --> 00:45:54,040 Speaker 6: than Saquon Barkley. The Cowboys defense still very good, and 1026 00:45:54,120 --> 00:45:56,719 Speaker 6: I think I over underrated this defense coming into this 1027 00:45:56,800 --> 00:45:58,839 Speaker 6: season because of some of the pass rush they lost. 1028 00:45:58,920 --> 00:46:02,600 Speaker 6: But you know, this Cowboys defense pretty tough, and we 1029 00:46:02,680 --> 00:46:05,239 Speaker 6: saw it against the Bengals yesterday, So I think there's 1030 00:46:05,280 --> 00:46:07,040 Speaker 6: a little bit of value here with the Cowboys. 1031 00:46:07,400 --> 00:46:07,600 Speaker 3: Yeah. 1032 00:46:07,600 --> 00:46:10,240 Speaker 1: One of my favorite bets was Michael Parsons for Defensive 1033 00:46:10,239 --> 00:46:12,040 Speaker 1: Player of the Year. And I'll tell you what man 1034 00:46:12,840 --> 00:46:15,960 Speaker 1: went down that looked real good that wager. Is that 1035 00:46:16,120 --> 00:46:19,120 Speaker 1: number shrunk on Michael Parsons? Your thoughts for even on 1036 00:46:19,200 --> 00:46:21,200 Speaker 1: this giant Cowboys contec. 1037 00:46:21,880 --> 00:46:24,080 Speaker 3: Yeah, I think there's actually a lot of value here 1038 00:46:24,360 --> 00:46:25,080 Speaker 3: on the Cowboys. 1039 00:46:25,160 --> 00:46:27,279 Speaker 4: And I'm saying that as a Cowboys fan who is 1040 00:46:27,400 --> 00:46:30,120 Speaker 4: inclined to hate the Cowboys and bet against them. 1041 00:46:30,239 --> 00:46:31,839 Speaker 3: Whenever he has the opportunity. 1042 00:46:32,360 --> 00:46:37,160 Speaker 4: But at three, I still think there is significant value 1043 00:46:37,200 --> 00:46:41,600 Speaker 4: here because, as as Pat said, you know with Micah Parsons, 1044 00:46:42,040 --> 00:46:44,200 Speaker 4: that defense is still pretty good, and they are increasingly 1045 00:46:44,400 --> 00:46:47,880 Speaker 4: using Micah Parsons as just a pure pass rusher instead 1046 00:46:47,880 --> 00:46:50,200 Speaker 4: of an off ball linebacker, which that makes sense. That's 1047 00:46:50,239 --> 00:46:53,440 Speaker 4: where he has the most benefit to the game. Mike 1048 00:46:53,560 --> 00:46:58,719 Speaker 4: McCarthy as man and competent feels like the wrong word, 1049 00:46:58,800 --> 00:47:01,799 Speaker 4: but it is the right words incompetent. As Mike McCarthy's 1050 00:47:01,920 --> 00:47:05,440 Speaker 4: team can sometimes seem. He is six and two against 1051 00:47:05,480 --> 00:47:09,600 Speaker 4: the spread as an underdog with the Cowboys without Dak 1052 00:47:09,719 --> 00:47:13,480 Speaker 4: Prescott and Daniel Jones, like at home as a favorite, 1053 00:47:13,760 --> 00:47:17,920 Speaker 4: is just a smash guy to bet against. And I 1054 00:47:18,000 --> 00:47:21,320 Speaker 4: know the Cowboys have injury issues, but the Giants really 1055 00:47:21,680 --> 00:47:25,399 Speaker 4: have injury issues. Both of their starting edge rushers were 1056 00:47:25,480 --> 00:47:29,719 Speaker 4: out last week, and defensive tackle Leonard Williams suffered an 1057 00:47:29,800 --> 00:47:31,839 Speaker 4: injury in the game. We have to see what's going 1058 00:47:31,920 --> 00:47:35,719 Speaker 4: on with him. Cornerback Aaron Robinson is out, backup cornerback 1059 00:47:35,840 --> 00:47:39,760 Speaker 4: Nick McCloud is out, and slot wide receiver Wandel Robinson 1060 00:47:40,040 --> 00:47:42,160 Speaker 4: was out. Not all of these guys are coming back 1061 00:47:42,239 --> 00:47:45,839 Speaker 4: this week, and I gotta say, like I think last week, 1062 00:47:46,480 --> 00:47:48,680 Speaker 4: even though I had value on the Cowboys and I 1063 00:47:48,760 --> 00:47:52,000 Speaker 4: bet on them, I probably downgraded them a little bit 1064 00:47:52,080 --> 00:47:55,040 Speaker 4: too much in the drop from Dak Prescott to Cooper Rush, 1065 00:47:55,320 --> 00:47:57,120 Speaker 4: and so I bumped them up a little bit in 1066 00:47:57,239 --> 00:47:59,640 Speaker 4: our power ratings. And so I mean, I'm not saying 1067 00:47:59,640 --> 00:48:01,759 Speaker 4: that this is it pick them. I do think that 1068 00:48:01,920 --> 00:48:05,200 Speaker 4: we should have we should have the Giants favorite, but 1069 00:48:05,480 --> 00:48:08,440 Speaker 4: as slight favorites, you know, like half a point favorites, 1070 00:48:08,840 --> 00:48:10,120 Speaker 4: not three point favorites. 1071 00:48:10,760 --> 00:48:11,719 Speaker 2: I wouldn't worry too much. 1072 00:48:11,760 --> 00:48:13,200 Speaker 1: You'll have Sean Payton as the head coach of the 1073 00:48:13,239 --> 00:48:15,680 Speaker 1: Cowboys next year, so don't worry about It'll be fine. 1074 00:48:15,719 --> 00:48:19,200 Speaker 1: Let's run through Matt and Pat's favorite bets for the 1075 00:48:19,280 --> 00:48:21,640 Speaker 1: Early look Ahead show. Matt, kick us off with your 1076 00:48:21,680 --> 00:48:23,520 Speaker 1: favorites that you see early on that people should be on. 1077 00:48:23,680 --> 00:48:23,719 Speaker 2: Go. 1078 00:48:24,160 --> 00:48:24,359 Speaker 3: Yeah. 1079 00:48:24,400 --> 00:48:25,960 Speaker 4: I mean I've touched on a lot of them here, 1080 00:48:26,040 --> 00:48:28,920 Speaker 4: so I don't want to like give all of them away. 1081 00:48:29,000 --> 00:48:31,640 Speaker 4: I will just say, you know, maybe my favorite still 1082 00:48:31,800 --> 00:48:34,960 Speaker 4: is looking at that Chargers number seems a seven and 1083 00:48:35,040 --> 00:48:36,719 Speaker 4: thinking that it should be closer. 1084 00:48:36,400 --> 00:48:36,879 Speaker 3: To a ten. 1085 00:48:37,840 --> 00:48:40,920 Speaker 1: Okay, Pat, how about for you anything that really stuck 1086 00:48:40,920 --> 00:48:42,600 Speaker 1: out for you. Your favorite the early bet? 1087 00:48:43,440 --> 00:48:45,840 Speaker 6: Yeah, I mean I like the Bills minus four and 1088 00:48:45,880 --> 00:48:48,320 Speaker 6: a half at the Dolphins. As good as the Dolphins 1089 00:48:48,400 --> 00:48:51,600 Speaker 6: looked on Sunday, or at least their offense looked. I 1090 00:48:51,719 --> 00:48:54,480 Speaker 6: think that's too low a number. Love the Titans at 1091 00:48:54,520 --> 00:48:57,000 Speaker 6: home against the Raiders. Don't understand that line at all. 1092 00:48:57,600 --> 00:49:01,080 Speaker 6: Love the Chargers on the road against the Jaguars giving 1093 00:49:01,160 --> 00:49:02,120 Speaker 6: up only a touchdown. 1094 00:49:02,600 --> 00:49:05,240 Speaker 5: And that Cowboys game we just talked about. 1095 00:49:05,280 --> 00:49:07,200 Speaker 6: And I'm probably gonna be on the Bengals too, like 1096 00:49:07,520 --> 00:49:09,759 Speaker 6: thinking the Bengals are too good to follow the zero 1097 00:49:09,800 --> 00:49:10,920 Speaker 6: and three against the Jets. 1098 00:49:11,440 --> 00:49:13,200 Speaker 1: There you have it. Make sure you use that promo 1099 00:49:13,239 --> 00:49:16,120 Speaker 1: code betting Pros too, and go play the new game 1100 00:49:16,239 --> 00:49:19,320 Speaker 1: over on Sleeper, the over undergame. Download the Sleeper app today. 1101 00:49:19,600 --> 00:49:21,200 Speaker 1: You can invite your friends to play. All you have 1102 00:49:21,280 --> 00:49:23,800 Speaker 1: to do is go ahead and pick some over unders. 1103 00:49:23,840 --> 00:49:25,960 Speaker 1: You can play against your buddies and next thing you know, 1104 00:49:26,040 --> 00:49:27,879 Speaker 1: you can win some cash. Again, use that promo code 1105 00:49:27,920 --> 00:49:30,759 Speaker 1: betting Pros at the Sleeper app and when you do, 1106 00:49:30,920 --> 00:49:33,359 Speaker 1: you get one hundred dollars deposit match up to one 1107 00:49:33,480 --> 00:49:36,319 Speaker 1: hundred dollars in your first deposit. That'll do it for us, 1108 00:49:36,360 --> 00:49:38,120 Speaker 1: But the story of the game goes on for Matthew 1109 00:49:38,160 --> 00:49:39,640 Speaker 1: Friedman and path Fitz Morris. 1110 00:49:39,680 --> 00:49:40,239 Speaker 3: I'm Joey P. 1111 00:49:40,800 --> 00:49:41,680 Speaker 2: We'll see you next time. 1112 00:49:41,760 --> 00:49:42,040 Speaker 3: Kids,