1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:06,760 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. 2 00:00:11,960 --> 00:00:15,560 Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene along 3 00:00:15,600 --> 00:00:18,960 Speaker 2: with Paul Sweeney. Join us each day for insight from 4 00:00:18,960 --> 00:00:23,160 Speaker 2: the best in economics, finance, investment, and international relations. You 5 00:00:23,160 --> 00:00:26,520 Speaker 2: can also watch the show live on YouTube. Visit the 6 00:00:26,520 --> 00:00:31,280 Speaker 2: Bloomberg Podcast channel on YouTube to see the show weekday 7 00:00:31,280 --> 00:00:34,320 Speaker 2: mornings from seven to ten am Eastern from our global 8 00:00:34,360 --> 00:00:39,000 Speaker 2: headquarters in New York City. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, 9 00:00:39,360 --> 00:00:42,920 Speaker 2: or anywhere else you listen and always I'm Bloomberg Radio, 10 00:00:43,080 --> 00:00:47,720 Speaker 2: the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business App. I've underplayed this, folks, 11 00:00:47,720 --> 00:00:50,519 Speaker 2: I'm guilty of this. Paul's been better than me with 12 00:00:50,680 --> 00:00:53,920 Speaker 2: her bonds. Yeah, who you going to talk to? Kathy 13 00:00:54,000 --> 00:00:55,920 Speaker 2: Jones leaves the way with her bonds. I don't know 14 00:00:55,960 --> 00:00:56,880 Speaker 2: what to do with bonds. 15 00:00:57,200 --> 00:01:01,400 Speaker 3: Kathy Jones, chief fixed income strategist at Charles Schwaz. Kathy, again, 16 00:01:01,440 --> 00:01:03,720 Speaker 3: we're seeing a yields tick up here. We've got the 17 00:01:03,760 --> 00:01:06,600 Speaker 3: ten year treasury at four point three five percent. 18 00:01:06,680 --> 00:01:08,199 Speaker 2: It seems like the market's. 19 00:01:08,440 --> 00:01:12,520 Speaker 3: Backing off on a on a dubbish federal reserve. What 20 00:01:12,600 --> 00:01:14,720 Speaker 3: do you make as you take a look at cross 21 00:01:14,760 --> 00:01:16,760 Speaker 3: the fixed income landscape. 22 00:01:17,040 --> 00:01:20,160 Speaker 1: Yeah, well we're in this We're in this soft landing, 23 00:01:20,720 --> 00:01:23,720 Speaker 1: which is unfamiliar turf right or used to being either 24 00:01:23,800 --> 00:01:26,679 Speaker 1: in you know, big expansion or a big contraction. A 25 00:01:26,680 --> 00:01:29,399 Speaker 1: lot of volatility in the economy. And we actually are 26 00:01:29,440 --> 00:01:33,200 Speaker 1: in a pretty good spot here with economic growth, you know, 27 00:01:33,800 --> 00:01:37,440 Speaker 1: being pretty strong. We came in about three percent last year, 28 00:01:37,480 --> 00:01:40,959 Speaker 1: which real GDP growth, which is a surprise to the upside, 29 00:01:41,520 --> 00:01:45,000 Speaker 1: and continue to see some positive indicators. On the other hand, 30 00:01:45,040 --> 00:01:48,240 Speaker 1: inflation is coming down. I know we're worried about oil 31 00:01:48,280 --> 00:01:51,520 Speaker 1: prices today and a number of other things, but in general, 32 00:01:52,120 --> 00:01:55,080 Speaker 1: the trend and inflation is still lower. So we're in 33 00:01:55,160 --> 00:01:58,720 Speaker 1: a good spot. And I think that's the market is struggling. 34 00:01:58,880 --> 00:02:01,280 Speaker 1: What does it that do now we're in a good spot, right, Okay? 35 00:02:01,280 --> 00:02:03,480 Speaker 1: Now does it need to ease? Does it need to tighten? 36 00:02:04,480 --> 00:02:06,760 Speaker 2: What do not fancy people do. I don't want to 37 00:02:06,800 --> 00:02:09,640 Speaker 2: talk about spreads and all the other pro stuff you 38 00:02:09,720 --> 00:02:13,440 Speaker 2: talk about all day, Kathy, But mom and pop out there, 39 00:02:13,600 --> 00:02:16,720 Speaker 2: they're not going to own the video in Vidia. I 40 00:02:16,760 --> 00:02:19,480 Speaker 2: can't even pronounce it. They're not going to own Nvidia. 41 00:02:19,520 --> 00:02:22,680 Speaker 2: They're going to own the Kathy Jones world. Where's the 42 00:02:22,720 --> 00:02:29,880 Speaker 2: most constructive coupon right now? Kathy Jones for mere mortals. 43 00:02:29,240 --> 00:02:31,880 Speaker 1: Well, I think if you're in the taxable market, investment 44 00:02:31,919 --> 00:02:35,520 Speaker 1: grade corporate bonds look good. You're getting yields in the 45 00:02:35,680 --> 00:02:38,400 Speaker 1: five percent plus area, five to five and a half 46 00:02:38,440 --> 00:02:43,560 Speaker 1: percent on investment grade rated companies. And what that means is, 47 00:02:43,560 --> 00:02:47,360 Speaker 1: if you're sitting in cash, a CD, money market funder 48 00:02:47,400 --> 00:02:50,920 Speaker 1: whatever at five percent plus, you don't really want to 49 00:02:51,000 --> 00:02:54,600 Speaker 1: extend duration and buy a treasury at four thirty or 50 00:02:54,760 --> 00:02:59,960 Speaker 1: for fifty. You could extenduration and use investment grade corporate 51 00:03:00,080 --> 00:03:03,880 Speaker 1: bonds and keep your five percent plus coupon. If you're 52 00:03:03,919 --> 00:03:06,600 Speaker 1: in a high tax bracket, then you can look at muni's. 53 00:03:06,600 --> 00:03:10,640 Speaker 1: The evaluations there are pretty stretched right now. This often 54 00:03:10,639 --> 00:03:13,720 Speaker 1: happens around tax time. People write those checks and they go, oh, 55 00:03:13,760 --> 00:03:15,840 Speaker 1: I need to buy some tax exempt bonds. 56 00:03:15,960 --> 00:03:16,240 Speaker 4: Yep. 57 00:03:16,800 --> 00:03:19,720 Speaker 1: But I think when the muni market kind of goes 58 00:03:19,760 --> 00:03:23,000 Speaker 1: back to a more normal or reverts to a more 59 00:03:23,040 --> 00:03:27,480 Speaker 1: normal spread, municipal bonds always makes sense for people in 60 00:03:27,560 --> 00:03:30,360 Speaker 1: high tax brackets. It's one of the few places you 61 00:03:30,400 --> 00:03:31,880 Speaker 1: get that tax exempt income. 62 00:03:32,600 --> 00:03:35,240 Speaker 3: So Kathy I was kind of surprised in twenty twenty 63 00:03:35,240 --> 00:03:37,320 Speaker 3: three to see in the fixed income space the best 64 00:03:37,360 --> 00:03:40,840 Speaker 3: performers was in the high yield market and decidedly so. 65 00:03:41,200 --> 00:03:43,760 Speaker 3: And we're actually even seeing some positive return here in 66 00:03:43,800 --> 00:03:46,600 Speaker 3: twenty twenty four in the US high yield market, and 67 00:03:46,600 --> 00:03:49,600 Speaker 3: with all the talk about potential recession here, I'm surprised 68 00:03:49,640 --> 00:03:51,360 Speaker 3: to see that kind of performance. How do you guys 69 00:03:51,400 --> 00:03:53,320 Speaker 3: think about the high yield space. 70 00:03:54,880 --> 00:03:59,040 Speaker 1: Yeah, high yield has performed very well, more actually stronger 71 00:03:59,080 --> 00:04:02,480 Speaker 1: than we thought it would. We were more concerned about, 72 00:04:02,640 --> 00:04:06,680 Speaker 1: you know, caution in the market, but highield issuers were 73 00:04:06,760 --> 00:04:10,320 Speaker 1: able to turn out their dat extend that timeline for 74 00:04:10,400 --> 00:04:14,280 Speaker 1: their dad to not have to refinance yet as much. 75 00:04:14,760 --> 00:04:16,880 Speaker 1: So we'll see how they do when you know, we 76 00:04:17,000 --> 00:04:21,000 Speaker 1: hit more maturities coming up next year at higher rates, 77 00:04:21,040 --> 00:04:22,840 Speaker 1: but they were able to do that. The economy is 78 00:04:22,920 --> 00:04:25,960 Speaker 1: more resilient, and there was a lot of funding in 79 00:04:26,040 --> 00:04:28,960 Speaker 1: the in the credit markets from the private credit people. 80 00:04:29,680 --> 00:04:32,920 Speaker 2: I guess that's that helped a lot. Market's really moving 81 00:04:33,000 --> 00:04:36,840 Speaker 2: right now. The VICS over fourteen future is negative fifteen. Kathy. 82 00:04:36,880 --> 00:04:38,880 Speaker 2: In the yield space, I'm sorry, I got some real 83 00:04:38,920 --> 00:04:40,520 Speaker 2: movement here. I got a ten yere yield with a 84 00:04:40,520 --> 00:04:43,599 Speaker 2: six basis point popping on a four point three seven 85 00:04:44,120 --> 00:04:47,039 Speaker 2: percent and the ten year really yield just plunged moved 86 00:04:47,040 --> 00:04:50,200 Speaker 2: over two percent two point zero one. Connect to Kathy 87 00:04:50,279 --> 00:04:53,400 Speaker 2: Jones world, to the liz Anne Saunders world. What does 88 00:04:53,400 --> 00:04:58,120 Speaker 2: a two percent real yield inflation adjusted yield mean for 89 00:04:58,200 --> 00:04:59,479 Speaker 2: our listeners and viewers. 90 00:05:00,760 --> 00:05:05,360 Speaker 1: Well, it should be a competition for risk your asset classes. 91 00:05:05,520 --> 00:05:09,160 Speaker 1: So when you can lock in a two percent real rate, 92 00:05:09,800 --> 00:05:11,839 Speaker 1: you don't have to stretch as far and take in 93 00:05:11,880 --> 00:05:14,960 Speaker 1: terms of taking risk. You know their asset classes. Now 94 00:05:14,960 --> 00:05:17,680 Speaker 1: that hasn't been the case because we have this kind 95 00:05:17,680 --> 00:05:21,400 Speaker 1: of ideal world soft landing right now where equities are 96 00:05:21,400 --> 00:05:27,039 Speaker 1: doing well and risk appetite is still strong. But a 97 00:05:27,080 --> 00:05:30,240 Speaker 1: two percent real rate should be attractive for the long run. 98 00:05:30,440 --> 00:05:34,080 Speaker 2: Kathy struggling there, She needs some tame zero. That's what 99 00:05:34,120 --> 00:05:36,680 Speaker 2: I would recommend. Kathy Jones. Thank you so much for 100 00:05:36,839 --> 00:05:51,000 Speaker 2: Charles Trump. Jason Furman has the coolest job at Economics 101 00:05:51,000 --> 00:05:53,320 Speaker 2: teaching X ten with all the heritage of Auto ck 102 00:05:53,360 --> 00:05:58,400 Speaker 2: Stein and Martin Feldstein. I mean Jason greg MANQ a 103 00:05:58,440 --> 00:06:02,440 Speaker 2: long time ago had a BMW with a Massachusetts license 104 00:06:02,480 --> 00:06:06,680 Speaker 2: plate X ten EC Space one zero. Do you have 105 00:06:06,720 --> 00:06:09,320 Speaker 2: an X ten license plate going right now? Jason? 106 00:06:10,160 --> 00:06:12,880 Speaker 5: You know I can't get one, Tom because Greg still 107 00:06:12,920 --> 00:06:16,240 Speaker 5: has that licenseate. In fact, I drove with him in 108 00:06:16,279 --> 00:06:17,520 Speaker 5: that car just last night. 109 00:06:17,880 --> 00:06:20,240 Speaker 2: That's great, that's great to know our agreetings. 110 00:06:19,839 --> 00:06:21,320 Speaker 5: About what the Fed was gonna do this. 111 00:06:21,279 --> 00:06:23,520 Speaker 2: Year, to our greetings to Greg man Cue. He's done 112 00:06:23,560 --> 00:06:26,599 Speaker 2: some in fabulous stuff, folks, and I really he's gonna 113 00:06:26,800 --> 00:06:28,840 Speaker 2: I'm gonna dig it up, Jason. I'm gonna dig up 114 00:06:28,880 --> 00:06:32,880 Speaker 2: man Q's great job of how we're taxed across our 115 00:06:32,960 --> 00:06:36,920 Speaker 2: lifetimes on income and investment. Jason, there's so much. There's 116 00:06:36,960 --> 00:06:40,120 Speaker 2: so little time here to touch upon your path leading 117 00:06:40,200 --> 00:06:44,720 Speaker 2: work on the trend of inflation is disinflation in place 118 00:06:44,920 --> 00:06:45,440 Speaker 2: right now. 119 00:06:46,680 --> 00:06:50,640 Speaker 5: We've certainly disinflated an awful lot. The problem is is 120 00:06:50,640 --> 00:06:53,360 Speaker 5: a big difference between whether inflation's gonna settle down at 121 00:06:53,400 --> 00:06:56,680 Speaker 5: three point one percent and two point four percent, and 122 00:06:56,880 --> 00:06:59,039 Speaker 5: none of our models are very good at telling us 123 00:06:59,120 --> 00:07:02,520 Speaker 5: the difference between those two possibilities. Right now, I am 124 00:07:02,560 --> 00:07:06,760 Speaker 5: cautiously optimistic that January and February were blips that we're 125 00:07:06,800 --> 00:07:08,680 Speaker 5: gonna be and arranged that the Fed is gonna be 126 00:07:08,720 --> 00:07:12,320 Speaker 5: okay with. But you know, I'm nervous. 127 00:07:12,280 --> 00:07:16,320 Speaker 2: To go to your public service on fiscal affairs in 128 00:07:16,400 --> 00:07:19,200 Speaker 2: the way you fold in policy like Betsy Stevenson and 129 00:07:19,280 --> 00:07:24,800 Speaker 2: some others. Do you sit in Act ten lecturing on 130 00:07:24,920 --> 00:07:28,440 Speaker 2: the interest build up? We now see the government paying 131 00:07:28,920 --> 00:07:32,400 Speaker 2: the interest paid by America's one point ex trillion? Whatever? 132 00:07:32,800 --> 00:07:40,440 Speaker 2: Is Jason Furman concerned about fiscal overwhelming our other economics? Yeah? 133 00:07:40,600 --> 00:07:44,080 Speaker 5: I taught debt sustainability last week. And here's the tricky thing. 134 00:07:44,640 --> 00:07:47,080 Speaker 5: There is no doubt that the United States is on 135 00:07:47,120 --> 00:07:50,080 Speaker 5: an unsustainable course. I think Bloomberg just did an analysis 136 00:07:50,120 --> 00:07:51,680 Speaker 5: and I think it's something like eighty eight percent of 137 00:07:51,720 --> 00:07:55,640 Speaker 5: the scenarios the debt is unsustainable. That seems very plausible 138 00:07:55,680 --> 00:07:59,080 Speaker 5: to me. Here's the tricky thing. We don't know how 139 00:07:59,320 --> 00:08:01,520 Speaker 5: urgent this problem is. We don't know how big this 140 00:08:01,600 --> 00:08:04,440 Speaker 5: problem is. We don't know how much time we have now. 141 00:08:04,520 --> 00:08:07,600 Speaker 5: All that uncertainty is an argument for taking out some insurance. 142 00:08:07,640 --> 00:08:09,760 Speaker 5: We'd rather not find out what a crisis is like. 143 00:08:10,600 --> 00:08:14,280 Speaker 5: But you know, I tend to be on the if 144 00:08:14,320 --> 00:08:16,000 Speaker 5: we deal with this a couple of years from now, 145 00:08:16,040 --> 00:08:19,000 Speaker 5: we'll probably be fine. But maybe we need to do 146 00:08:19,040 --> 00:08:22,320 Speaker 5: better for the United States economy than probably So. 147 00:08:22,200 --> 00:08:23,960 Speaker 3: What does this Fed or Reserve do just in the 148 00:08:24,080 --> 00:08:27,000 Speaker 3: near term here, Jason, I mean, we started the year 149 00:08:27,400 --> 00:08:30,400 Speaker 3: thinking that the FED would cut perhaps six times this year. 150 00:08:30,440 --> 00:08:34,120 Speaker 3: Now the market's kind of discounting maybe less than three times. 151 00:08:34,160 --> 00:08:35,880 Speaker 3: What do you think the Fed should do and what 152 00:08:35,920 --> 00:08:36,560 Speaker 3: do you think they will do? 153 00:08:37,600 --> 00:08:39,840 Speaker 5: One thing is, by the way I was worried that 154 00:08:39,880 --> 00:08:43,120 Speaker 5: the market was out over its skis overly enthusiastic, and 155 00:08:43,160 --> 00:08:46,120 Speaker 5: it's adjusted to a very different outlook without a whole 156 00:08:46,160 --> 00:08:49,400 Speaker 5: lot of turbulence, and that's been I think a good 157 00:08:49,480 --> 00:08:52,720 Speaker 5: reassuring sign in terms of what the Fed should do. 158 00:08:52,800 --> 00:08:55,480 Speaker 5: I mean, it's sort of a standard phrase, but they 159 00:08:55,520 --> 00:08:59,120 Speaker 5: need to be data dependent. If we get two prints 160 00:08:59,160 --> 00:09:02,480 Speaker 5: that make us real that January and February really work works, 161 00:09:02,920 --> 00:09:05,240 Speaker 5: I think they could go ahead and cut in June. 162 00:09:05,760 --> 00:09:07,640 Speaker 5: The other thing, though, I'd like to see them do, 163 00:09:07,960 --> 00:09:11,560 Speaker 5: is make the cut a less momentous event rather than 164 00:09:11,679 --> 00:09:13,680 Speaker 5: you know, this is a huge ship and it's now 165 00:09:13,720 --> 00:09:15,560 Speaker 5: going in a different direction. It's going to stay in 166 00:09:15,559 --> 00:09:18,400 Speaker 5: that different direction. Say here's what we're doing today, but 167 00:09:18,400 --> 00:09:20,839 Speaker 5: we're going to continue to collect, you know, data This 168 00:09:20,880 --> 00:09:22,920 Speaker 5: is not a promise of that. We're on a path 169 00:09:22,960 --> 00:09:25,360 Speaker 5: of cut at the next meeting, at every meeting, even 170 00:09:25,400 --> 00:09:28,760 Speaker 5: at every other meeting, they have to make that first move. 171 00:09:29,320 --> 00:09:33,440 Speaker 5: Just be less important than you know, everyone's trying to 172 00:09:33,600 --> 00:09:34,920 Speaker 5: import meaning into it right now. 173 00:09:35,240 --> 00:09:38,640 Speaker 3: Hey, Jason, you look at the US economy, by all measures, doing. 174 00:09:38,880 --> 00:09:40,200 Speaker 2: Pretty darn well. 175 00:09:40,640 --> 00:09:42,840 Speaker 3: But then you look at Europe, you look at Asia, 176 00:09:42,840 --> 00:09:45,880 Speaker 3: particularly China, not so well, I mean, and a lot 177 00:09:45,920 --> 00:09:49,400 Speaker 3: of folks talk about the exceptionalism of the US economy. 178 00:09:49,640 --> 00:09:51,640 Speaker 3: How do you think about that on a global scale. 179 00:09:52,440 --> 00:09:54,719 Speaker 5: Look, I'd rather be sitting in our economy right now 180 00:09:54,760 --> 00:09:58,040 Speaker 5: than any other economy in the world. Absolutely. I think 181 00:09:58,080 --> 00:10:02,000 Speaker 5: fiscal support has later role in that. It is, in 182 00:10:02,040 --> 00:10:06,559 Speaker 5: some sense fought monetary policy to a draw. The American 183 00:10:06,640 --> 00:10:12,200 Speaker 5: consumer just never ceases to amaze and surprise me. That's 184 00:10:12,240 --> 00:10:14,120 Speaker 5: been a big key here. That's something that, by the way, 185 00:10:14,280 --> 00:10:17,720 Speaker 5: China would be well advised to learn from. Chinese consumers 186 00:10:17,720 --> 00:10:20,520 Speaker 5: were just a little bit more American in the way 187 00:10:20,559 --> 00:10:25,400 Speaker 5: they approached things, China would have fewer problems right now. 188 00:10:25,800 --> 00:10:28,000 Speaker 5: But you know the other thing is these things bounce around, 189 00:10:28,360 --> 00:10:31,200 Speaker 5: and now you don't want to get too cocky because 190 00:10:31,640 --> 00:10:35,160 Speaker 5: things could reverse a year from now. You just never know. 191 00:10:36,200 --> 00:10:38,720 Speaker 2: I'm beyond honor Jason to bring this up with you 192 00:10:38,840 --> 00:10:41,440 Speaker 2: for the first time, the death at ninety years old. 193 00:10:41,520 --> 00:10:45,360 Speaker 2: If Daniel Kahman I was so honored to attend a 194 00:10:45,480 --> 00:10:49,400 Speaker 2: Princeton effort off of Thinking Fast and Slow. Can't say 195 00:10:49,480 --> 00:10:53,440 Speaker 2: enough about that accessible book. How do you teach Jason 196 00:10:54,120 --> 00:10:56,480 Speaker 2: Conman and Traversky? In Act ten? 197 00:10:58,000 --> 00:11:01,559 Speaker 5: We teach it checked Tim with somebody in David Labsen, 198 00:11:01,600 --> 00:11:05,120 Speaker 5: who is a behavioral economist, and part of what he's 199 00:11:05,160 --> 00:11:08,400 Speaker 5: done is take ideas of people like Danny Konnoman and 200 00:11:08,480 --> 00:11:12,079 Speaker 5: turn it into more rigorous mathematics as well as more 201 00:11:12,120 --> 00:11:16,599 Speaker 5: systematically tested empirically. And so we do behavior economics. I 202 00:11:16,600 --> 00:11:20,480 Speaker 5: think in maybe Class three it's first introduced and then 203 00:11:20,520 --> 00:11:23,240 Speaker 5: it's woven in throughout the course. 204 00:11:24,000 --> 00:11:27,200 Speaker 2: And it has to do with this phrase that the 205 00:11:27,280 --> 00:11:29,679 Speaker 2: media throws around. Paul and Iyer is guilty of, as 206 00:11:29,720 --> 00:11:33,880 Speaker 2: is anyone fighting the last war like a FED fighting 207 00:11:33,920 --> 00:11:37,239 Speaker 2: the last war, in that we're looking at our reflective 208 00:11:37,320 --> 00:11:41,320 Speaker 2: memories of recent years or even a recent decade. Is 209 00:11:41,360 --> 00:11:47,200 Speaker 2: this fed Jason Furman fighting the last war? I don't 210 00:11:47,240 --> 00:11:47,640 Speaker 2: think so. 211 00:11:48,280 --> 00:11:50,800 Speaker 5: I think it was when it got behind the curve 212 00:11:50,880 --> 00:11:54,120 Speaker 5: at the beginning of this, before the tightening cycle began, 213 00:11:55,200 --> 00:11:57,920 Speaker 5: but it improvised into a whole new place of really 214 00:11:58,040 --> 00:12:01,360 Speaker 5: dramatically fast rate cuts doing something that maybe it was 215 00:12:01,400 --> 00:12:03,720 Speaker 5: a couple of wars ago, but not the last war. 216 00:12:04,480 --> 00:12:08,800 Speaker 5: And now it's as a decently uncharted place as it 217 00:12:08,840 --> 00:12:12,760 Speaker 5: is preparing for what might be among the first really 218 00:12:12,800 --> 00:12:16,400 Speaker 5: clear soft landings we've had in the US economy. So 219 00:12:16,440 --> 00:12:19,840 Speaker 5: this is this is uncharted ground and uncharted ground, hopefully 220 00:12:20,160 --> 00:12:20,840 Speaker 5: in a good way. 221 00:12:21,200 --> 00:12:24,400 Speaker 3: Hey, Jason, what do you make of the US labor market? 222 00:12:24,400 --> 00:12:24,559 Speaker 1: Here? 223 00:12:24,600 --> 00:12:27,480 Speaker 3: We get print after print after print of a pretty 224 00:12:27,520 --> 00:12:31,200 Speaker 3: solid labor market, even though we've got headline and unemployment 225 00:12:31,200 --> 00:12:33,040 Speaker 3: now up to three point nine percent. But boy, it's 226 00:12:33,080 --> 00:12:35,880 Speaker 3: been really strong over this cycle. Here, what do you 227 00:12:35,880 --> 00:12:36,280 Speaker 3: make of it? 228 00:12:37,480 --> 00:12:41,120 Speaker 5: One word, immigrants. We are getting a lot more immigrants 229 00:12:41,160 --> 00:12:43,320 Speaker 5: than we thought we were going to get. That has 230 00:12:43,520 --> 00:12:47,480 Speaker 5: raised this pace of steady state job growth and that's 231 00:12:47,520 --> 00:12:50,680 Speaker 5: why we've had, you know, more than two hundred thousand 232 00:12:50,760 --> 00:12:54,880 Speaker 5: jobs a month while also having an unemployment rate that's stable, 233 00:12:54,920 --> 00:12:57,520 Speaker 5: if not trending up a little bit. 234 00:12:57,880 --> 00:13:01,120 Speaker 2: Jason, thank you so much for joining Todayferre Economics at 235 00:13:01,200 --> 00:13:05,280 Speaker 2: Harvard University. Jason Firman again with his work on fiscal 236 00:13:05,320 --> 00:13:08,880 Speaker 2: economics and dovetailing it into our broader lies. Paul, you 237 00:13:09,040 --> 00:13:11,960 Speaker 2: nailed it there on the job economy, and just percolating 238 00:13:11,960 --> 00:13:13,880 Speaker 2: in the last couple of days is what Jason Furman 239 00:13:14,040 --> 00:13:17,520 Speaker 2: was talking about, which is the immigrant overlay is a 240 00:13:17,559 --> 00:13:19,559 Speaker 2: mystery and we know but we don't. 241 00:13:19,720 --> 00:13:23,240 Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean again, I just my local data point 242 00:13:23,280 --> 00:13:25,840 Speaker 3: is a buddy mine owns a restaurant locally in New Jersey, 243 00:13:25,880 --> 00:13:29,280 Speaker 3: and it's really just in the last six to nine months, 244 00:13:29,360 --> 00:13:31,679 Speaker 3: he's been fully staffed. It's the first time since the 245 00:13:32,320 --> 00:13:35,000 Speaker 3: pandemic now he's been fully staffed. Now he's back to 246 00:13:35,200 --> 00:13:38,800 Speaker 3: like full hours because for a while there he couldn't 247 00:13:39,040 --> 00:13:41,280 Speaker 3: staff with the bus boys and the waiters and the 248 00:13:41,400 --> 00:13:43,679 Speaker 3: dishwashers and things like that. Now he's fully staffed and 249 00:13:44,360 --> 00:13:46,960 Speaker 3: he's doing more hours, more people, employees, paying more money 250 00:13:47,000 --> 00:13:49,840 Speaker 3: and income. So it's it's interesting to see at the 251 00:13:49,840 --> 00:13:52,040 Speaker 3: grassroot levels, and you know, some of the economists now 252 00:13:52,080 --> 00:13:54,880 Speaker 3: starting to talk about it. But interesting sidebar there. 253 00:13:54,880 --> 00:13:57,600 Speaker 2: It's going to be a theme through twenty and twenty four. 254 00:13:57,720 --> 00:14:04,520 Speaker 2: Jason Firman there of picking up the torch for Vack 255 00:14:04,920 --> 00:14:09,400 Speaker 2: is Exel Mirk with the MRK Gold Fund, and we 256 00:14:09,440 --> 00:14:12,679 Speaker 2: are thrilled. Exel Mark told join us today. He's out 257 00:14:12,720 --> 00:14:17,280 Speaker 2: of Brown University. He's been someone looking at dollar dynamics 258 00:14:17,440 --> 00:14:20,160 Speaker 2: and gold dynamics and of course huge interest now in 259 00:14:20,240 --> 00:14:24,400 Speaker 2: the moonshot that is gold. Ex Sol. Wonderful to have 260 00:14:24,440 --> 00:14:27,360 Speaker 2: you with us. Just it's a simple start. Who's got 261 00:14:27,360 --> 00:14:30,040 Speaker 2: the bid on gold? Why is gold moving onger? 262 00:14:31,120 --> 00:14:34,360 Speaker 4: That's a great question, and maybe we should ask Richard Russell. 263 00:14:34,680 --> 00:14:38,080 Speaker 4: Richard Russell, who you quoted earlier, to come on unfortually 264 00:14:38,160 --> 00:14:40,720 Speaker 4: can't make it anymore. He might have them with them 265 00:14:40,760 --> 00:14:45,240 Speaker 4: to share. I'm just the humble market participant observing. Clearly 266 00:14:45,880 --> 00:14:49,440 Speaker 4: the central banks have been accredited of being a big buyer. 267 00:14:49,600 --> 00:14:53,440 Speaker 4: They have been incentivized, so to speak, because their money 268 00:14:53,480 --> 00:14:55,360 Speaker 4: is at risk in the US, not that they pile 269 00:14:55,400 --> 00:14:57,760 Speaker 4: al their money into gold. But other than that, I 270 00:14:57,800 --> 00:15:02,360 Speaker 4: think part of the reason is geopolitics. I always used 271 00:15:02,360 --> 00:15:06,520 Speaker 4: to hate citing geopolitics as a reason because geopolitics always 272 00:15:06,560 --> 00:15:09,720 Speaker 4: abates again and it's temporary. But I think we're really 273 00:15:09,960 --> 00:15:12,520 Speaker 4: out of the peaceful period we has been throve W 274 00:15:12,680 --> 00:15:16,040 Speaker 4: two and the new era, and then there's some other drivers. 275 00:15:16,040 --> 00:15:16,920 Speaker 4: But you want to get a word of it. 276 00:15:17,120 --> 00:15:19,840 Speaker 2: Okay, but the standard deviation move acts, I mean, Paul 277 00:15:19,880 --> 00:15:22,840 Speaker 2: Sweeney's got any questions. But the eighth standard deviation move 278 00:15:23,640 --> 00:15:27,320 Speaker 2: is the interest payment. Now that governments are paying on 279 00:15:27,400 --> 00:15:31,400 Speaker 2: their debt in their annual deficit. I mean, come on, 280 00:15:31,600 --> 00:15:36,640 Speaker 2: gold is up because finally the interest rate shell game's unraveling. Right. 281 00:15:37,880 --> 00:15:40,560 Speaker 4: Well, it's the trajectory, and it's both on the physical 282 00:15:40,760 --> 00:15:43,560 Speaker 4: and the monetary side. Right on the on the physical side, 283 00:15:43,600 --> 00:15:46,640 Speaker 4: I think most people way are the deficits unsustainable. We know, 284 00:15:46,920 --> 00:15:50,840 Speaker 4: both political bodies they always say the other guys spend 285 00:15:50,840 --> 00:15:52,600 Speaker 4: it on the wrong stuff, but they're not any better. 286 00:15:53,360 --> 00:15:56,760 Speaker 4: But the monetary side, everybody's glued on the next raight count. 287 00:15:56,840 --> 00:15:59,600 Speaker 4: But when we don't have we don't have what economist 288 00:15:59,600 --> 00:16:01,920 Speaker 4: called the action function. What we have is the mood 289 00:16:02,000 --> 00:16:05,480 Speaker 4: of power. And they are okay, he has an easy 290 00:16:05,640 --> 00:16:08,560 Speaker 4: bias and not knowing what's going to happen. I think 291 00:16:08,600 --> 00:16:12,680 Speaker 4: he's also not helpfully adds latility markets and ultimately does 292 00:16:12,760 --> 00:16:15,680 Speaker 4: help gold as well. And so we have this so 293 00:16:16,360 --> 00:16:21,440 Speaker 4: somewhat perfect storm here and of course one buyer that's 294 00:16:21,480 --> 00:16:24,240 Speaker 4: been missing in the gold space is the speculator there. 295 00:16:24,320 --> 00:16:27,080 Speaker 4: The meme starts there, and the digital assets, and maybe 296 00:16:27,120 --> 00:16:29,160 Speaker 4: if we see a good move here, they'll come back 297 00:16:29,200 --> 00:16:31,360 Speaker 4: to gold. And that could have course created its own 298 00:16:31,360 --> 00:16:32,120 Speaker 4: set of dynamics. 299 00:16:32,640 --> 00:16:36,240 Speaker 3: So I've heard the argument that maybe countries that are 300 00:16:36,280 --> 00:16:40,200 Speaker 3: not friends to the US, maybe they're diversifying out of 301 00:16:40,280 --> 00:16:42,440 Speaker 3: the dollar. And if they're diversifying out of the dollar, 302 00:16:42,560 --> 00:16:44,960 Speaker 3: where do they go, and maybe where they go as gold? 303 00:16:45,000 --> 00:16:46,000 Speaker 3: Does that make sense to you? 304 00:16:47,520 --> 00:16:49,800 Speaker 4: Well, yes, except I think we should be aware that 305 00:16:50,640 --> 00:16:53,120 Speaker 4: they don't have good alternatives. I think as everybody agrees, 306 00:16:53,240 --> 00:16:56,600 Speaker 4: and gold is but one beneficiary, so it's on the margin. 307 00:16:56,920 --> 00:17:00,440 Speaker 4: Gold is beneficiary. But yes, I mean if Usia being 308 00:17:00,480 --> 00:17:04,520 Speaker 4: the most obvious example, but if you hold the US assets, 309 00:17:04,520 --> 00:17:06,200 Speaker 4: that might could seize. But if you are not a 310 00:17:06,320 --> 00:17:10,680 Speaker 4: country that might have plans not consistent with the US policy, 311 00:17:11,080 --> 00:17:14,640 Speaker 4: you also got to think twice about it. Increasingly countries 312 00:17:14,680 --> 00:17:18,080 Speaker 4: are more willing to use financial sanctions and and yes, 313 00:17:18,160 --> 00:17:21,320 Speaker 4: gold is one of the beneficiaries in that it doesn't 314 00:17:21,359 --> 00:17:23,520 Speaker 4: mean people can turn the back on the dollar, but 315 00:17:23,680 --> 00:17:26,520 Speaker 4: it does mean that these countries are looking for ways 316 00:17:26,520 --> 00:17:27,200 Speaker 4: to diversify. 317 00:17:28,359 --> 00:17:31,800 Speaker 3: From your perspective and from your work, what's what's the 318 00:17:31,880 --> 00:17:33,920 Speaker 3: highest correlation for gold? If we're trying to get a 319 00:17:33,960 --> 00:17:37,480 Speaker 3: sense of where gold is going, where do we look at. 320 00:17:38,480 --> 00:17:41,760 Speaker 4: It's an excellent question. It's not correlated really to anything 321 00:17:41,800 --> 00:17:44,120 Speaker 4: in the long run. It does zoom in and out. 322 00:17:44,480 --> 00:17:47,960 Speaker 4: The one correlation we see most of is the longer 323 00:17:48,040 --> 00:17:51,359 Speaker 4: term real yields. But as you pointed out earlier in 324 00:17:51,400 --> 00:17:54,120 Speaker 4: the program, right really have been moving higher. So even 325 00:17:54,200 --> 00:17:57,320 Speaker 4: that is not consistent. So gold is the saying that 326 00:17:57,520 --> 00:18:01,879 Speaker 4: where where these correlations they are morphing? They're not. Whenever 327 00:18:01,960 --> 00:18:04,639 Speaker 4: you think that you figured out something, then you're going 328 00:18:04,680 --> 00:18:06,920 Speaker 4: to be disappointed that those sort of correlations are breaking 329 00:18:07,000 --> 00:18:09,040 Speaker 4: down again. It's one reason why it makes it a 330 00:18:09,119 --> 00:18:10,080 Speaker 4: good diversified by the. 331 00:18:10,040 --> 00:18:13,240 Speaker 2: Way, Excel. One more question here, and this goes back 332 00:18:13,280 --> 00:18:15,479 Speaker 2: to your worries about the US dollar. I mean, they 333 00:18:15,480 --> 00:18:18,280 Speaker 2: don't seem correlated. They got a resilient dollar right now. 334 00:18:19,000 --> 00:18:21,840 Speaker 2: Do you still advocate that at some point the dollar 335 00:18:21,920 --> 00:18:25,440 Speaker 2: will finally give way? What hasn't happened for a decade. 336 00:18:25,600 --> 00:18:29,560 Speaker 4: Well, the dollar. We used to talk about the dollar extensively. 337 00:18:29,680 --> 00:18:32,720 Speaker 4: This wasn't the world where you had some sanity in 338 00:18:32,760 --> 00:18:34,920 Speaker 4: the rest of the world. But then the Eurozone dead 339 00:18:35,000 --> 00:18:38,240 Speaker 4: crisis came along and everybody played the same game. And 340 00:18:38,760 --> 00:18:41,399 Speaker 4: so it's fun of the reasons why gold benefits. And 341 00:18:41,680 --> 00:18:43,920 Speaker 4: and we start right. We used that currency fund, but 342 00:18:44,400 --> 00:18:46,800 Speaker 4: people turned that back on them. They weren't popular any one. 343 00:18:46,840 --> 00:18:48,639 Speaker 4: The only thing people wanted to hear about is gold 344 00:18:49,119 --> 00:18:53,720 Speaker 4: because it cannot be manipulated. I mean, whatever it takes 345 00:18:53,800 --> 00:18:57,440 Speaker 4: charge scenario is the baseline. And then of course we've 346 00:18:57,480 --> 00:19:00,760 Speaker 4: got plenty of what what's happening in the US, And yes, 347 00:19:00,840 --> 00:19:03,720 Speaker 4: of course there's there's a reason for dynamics currencies. But 348 00:19:03,880 --> 00:19:06,720 Speaker 4: the gold investor has turned hit or her back to 349 00:19:07,280 --> 00:19:07,720 Speaker 4: the currents. 350 00:19:07,800 --> 00:19:10,400 Speaker 2: I'll be I'll be rude onke Paul. Paul's a gentleman. 351 00:19:10,680 --> 00:19:12,640 Speaker 2: What's your call on gold? Can you give me three 352 00:19:12,760 --> 00:19:14,160 Speaker 2: thousand parounds on gold? 353 00:19:16,040 --> 00:19:18,240 Speaker 4: I can give it to you if the speculators jump 354 00:19:18,320 --> 00:19:21,159 Speaker 4: back in it, and then they have been missing. I 355 00:19:21,640 --> 00:19:24,080 Speaker 4: don't like it when the speculators come in because that 356 00:19:24,359 --> 00:19:30,119 Speaker 4: increases molatility substantially and correct and so I prefer to 357 00:19:30,200 --> 00:19:32,200 Speaker 4: be the long term investor, and so I don't like 358 00:19:32,280 --> 00:19:34,680 Speaker 4: it when moved, gold moves that fast. But at the 359 00:19:34,720 --> 00:19:37,879 Speaker 4: same time, I think one key reason why goldes is 360 00:19:37,920 --> 00:19:41,160 Speaker 4: moving higher is because of the bias of the better reserve, 361 00:19:41,200 --> 00:19:43,560 Speaker 4: and the longer this goes with the soft economy, the 362 00:19:43,640 --> 00:19:47,240 Speaker 4: longer there there's a push higher because the anticipation of 363 00:19:47,320 --> 00:19:49,480 Speaker 4: a cut is what matters, not the actual cut. 364 00:19:49,720 --> 00:19:52,359 Speaker 2: Excel Mark, thank you so much. Mark investments in the 365 00:19:52,440 --> 00:20:06,480 Speaker 2: Then Gold Fund the day to look at the front 366 00:20:06,520 --> 00:20:07,600 Speaker 2: pages around the world. 367 00:20:07,800 --> 00:20:10,159 Speaker 6: What do you start with, Lisa, Let's start off with 368 00:20:10,320 --> 00:20:13,840 Speaker 6: the story that I actually mentioned in our business news. 369 00:20:14,000 --> 00:20:16,760 Speaker 6: It's Google, so it's deleting millions of records of user 370 00:20:16,840 --> 00:20:18,520 Speaker 6: browsing activity. So I wanted to get into this. 371 00:20:20,320 --> 00:20:21,080 Speaker 2: Incognito. 372 00:20:21,280 --> 00:20:24,600 Speaker 6: Yes, okay, it's this class action lawsuit says if people 373 00:20:24,640 --> 00:20:27,800 Speaker 6: were tracked without knowing it on the Chrome browser incognito. 374 00:20:28,000 --> 00:20:30,640 Speaker 6: The thing with incognito is that it lets users turn 375 00:20:30,880 --> 00:20:34,040 Speaker 6: off data collection. But the problem is that other Google 376 00:20:34,119 --> 00:20:37,679 Speaker 6: tools used by websites, by advertising technology, they scooped up 377 00:20:37,720 --> 00:20:40,359 Speaker 6: that data anyway, so now they're having to delete all 378 00:20:40,480 --> 00:20:44,480 Speaker 6: this browsing activity. So now they're back in the spotlight. 379 00:20:44,520 --> 00:20:47,640 Speaker 2: And my basic take is, if I go to search 380 00:20:47,720 --> 00:20:55,359 Speaker 2: for tigers, merch for Michael Barr a day later of 381 00:20:56,240 --> 00:20:58,280 Speaker 2: baseball merch. That's going to go away. 382 00:20:59,040 --> 00:21:01,440 Speaker 6: Well, this is the class action lawsuit. The plane is 383 00:21:01,480 --> 00:21:04,720 Speaker 6: are asking for five billion dollars in damages, but there's 384 00:21:04,800 --> 00:21:06,800 Speaker 6: no payment for Google. But here's what's going to happen. 385 00:21:06,840 --> 00:21:09,919 Speaker 6: The individuals who look for those damages, Well, they're going 386 00:21:10,000 --> 00:21:11,880 Speaker 6: to file their own complaints against Google. 387 00:21:11,960 --> 00:21:13,399 Speaker 3: So this is going to keep right. People are going 388 00:21:13,440 --> 00:21:15,280 Speaker 3: to keep file despite the fact that you go in 389 00:21:15,320 --> 00:21:17,159 Speaker 3: here and you delete all your search history. I just 390 00:21:17,240 --> 00:21:19,800 Speaker 3: assume it's there. It's there, it's there, and then that's 391 00:21:19,880 --> 00:21:22,960 Speaker 3: the and that's the that's the bargain we made twenty 392 00:21:23,040 --> 00:21:25,560 Speaker 3: years ago when we started putting all our data online. 393 00:21:25,920 --> 00:21:28,320 Speaker 2: Just you give up all that interesting. Yeah. 394 00:21:28,440 --> 00:21:32,600 Speaker 6: Next, Yes, more gn Z workers are going into skilled 395 00:21:32,720 --> 00:21:34,960 Speaker 6: trades so they can like plumbings and things like this. 396 00:21:35,119 --> 00:21:35,280 Speaker 3: Yeah. 397 00:21:35,320 --> 00:21:37,560 Speaker 6: So younger workers are saying they can get higher pay, 398 00:21:37,920 --> 00:21:40,480 Speaker 6: they can avoid the rising cost of college because college 399 00:21:40,560 --> 00:21:43,080 Speaker 6: is just too much for them. Now they're saying that 400 00:21:43,760 --> 00:21:46,560 Speaker 6: generative AI with the rise of that, blue collar jobs 401 00:21:46,640 --> 00:21:49,119 Speaker 6: have more job security. That's another thing they're looking at. 402 00:21:49,440 --> 00:21:52,399 Speaker 6: They're drawn to the trades because they're entrepreneur potentially like 403 00:21:52,440 --> 00:21:53,959 Speaker 6: they want to start their own business. So that's why 404 00:21:53,960 --> 00:21:55,080 Speaker 6: they're saying if they get into this. 405 00:21:55,200 --> 00:21:57,040 Speaker 3: They can do that as well. Yeah, I think with 406 00:21:57,200 --> 00:22:00,560 Speaker 3: the rising cost of higher education, I think for a 407 00:22:00,680 --> 00:22:03,600 Speaker 3: lot of people, it's just not worth it anymore, for 408 00:22:03,640 --> 00:22:04,080 Speaker 3: a lot. 409 00:22:04,000 --> 00:22:05,840 Speaker 2: More people than it used to be. Can you remember 410 00:22:05,880 --> 00:22:09,200 Speaker 2: the day Marlborough's cigarettes got too expensive? They just Philip 411 00:22:09,240 --> 00:22:12,120 Speaker 2: Morris just hit a wall. His college hit a wall. 412 00:22:12,480 --> 00:22:14,600 Speaker 3: I think I think they have. I think they have. 413 00:22:14,720 --> 00:22:16,920 Speaker 3: I think that business model. I'm going down to Duke 414 00:22:17,000 --> 00:22:19,440 Speaker 3: next week for a board meeting, and I'll say it again, 415 00:22:19,800 --> 00:22:23,720 Speaker 3: the business model is simply broken. I think the value 416 00:22:23,760 --> 00:22:27,520 Speaker 3: proposition for higher education it's just not there like it 417 00:22:27,640 --> 00:22:30,280 Speaker 3: was for my generation, certainly for older generation. 418 00:22:30,400 --> 00:22:33,119 Speaker 2: Good morning, Chuck Grassley, welder from out in Iowa. I 419 00:22:33,160 --> 00:22:35,080 Speaker 2: did a welding thing out in Iowa once. I mean 420 00:22:35,119 --> 00:22:37,360 Speaker 2: that's what you're talking about. Yes, kids are saying, pick 421 00:22:37,440 --> 00:22:38,240 Speaker 2: up a welding tour. 422 00:22:38,280 --> 00:22:41,359 Speaker 6: It's you're plumbing right, correct, correct, directly, very cool because 423 00:22:41,400 --> 00:22:44,639 Speaker 6: you know electricians, plumbers, welders, they're starting to retire to 424 00:22:44,880 --> 00:22:47,320 Speaker 6: the older electrician. So now there's there's more room for 425 00:22:47,440 --> 00:22:49,600 Speaker 6: these so and that's driving up the cost of labor, 426 00:22:49,600 --> 00:22:50,280 Speaker 6: so they getting paid. 427 00:22:50,440 --> 00:22:55,000 Speaker 2: Can you see me talk about a threat to society? Oh? 428 00:22:55,080 --> 00:22:58,440 Speaker 2: Let me do that please? What do you got next? 429 00:22:58,920 --> 00:23:00,760 Speaker 6: Okay, this is where I need your help with the 430 00:23:00,800 --> 00:23:06,280 Speaker 6: pronouncer of Paris is thank you, Riversen. Is it safe 431 00:23:06,359 --> 00:23:08,560 Speaker 6: to swim for the athletes. 432 00:23:08,080 --> 00:23:10,960 Speaker 2: In the two average to swim in the river? 433 00:23:11,160 --> 00:23:13,080 Speaker 6: Yes? The river is going to host at least the 434 00:23:13,200 --> 00:23:16,159 Speaker 6: plan is the plan a long distance swimming and the 435 00:23:16,240 --> 00:23:20,240 Speaker 6: triathlon swim lake. Okay, but the officials the Wall Street 436 00:23:20,280 --> 00:23:23,040 Speaker 6: Journal says they're racing to keep the sewage from the waters. 437 00:23:23,119 --> 00:23:27,359 Speaker 6: Is happening July twenty sixth, and the swimming, it's been 438 00:23:27,400 --> 00:23:30,119 Speaker 6: banned for like more than a century because of travel. 439 00:23:30,160 --> 00:23:33,080 Speaker 2: I will put out the definitive book on this good morning. 440 00:23:33,240 --> 00:23:36,399 Speaker 2: Elaine Siero in Paris. She's with the New York Times. 441 00:23:37,080 --> 00:23:39,840 Speaker 2: She owns the high ground on this. She traveled the 442 00:23:39,920 --> 00:23:43,159 Speaker 2: River sen from in the middle of nowhere in middle France. 443 00:23:43,840 --> 00:23:46,440 Speaker 2: I don't know here, somewhere near lyone who knows. And 444 00:23:46,680 --> 00:23:49,280 Speaker 2: she traveled the river all the way down to Lahore, 445 00:23:49,560 --> 00:23:52,800 Speaker 2: which is on the English Channel. And I'm with you, Lisa, 446 00:23:52,920 --> 00:23:54,920 Speaker 2: I just don't I was there, and I just don't 447 00:23:54,960 --> 00:23:57,000 Speaker 2: get it. They're going to swim in the rivers that 448 00:23:57,480 --> 00:23:59,000 Speaker 2: latest that's the plan. 449 00:24:00,080 --> 00:24:01,920 Speaker 3: I mean, would you have people swim in the Hudson 450 00:24:02,040 --> 00:24:03,680 Speaker 3: River here if we had the Olympics, I don't know. 451 00:24:03,960 --> 00:24:07,359 Speaker 2: I would say the Hudson better than I'm going to 452 00:24:07,440 --> 00:24:10,560 Speaker 2: trust all the Newburgh a lot more than they're going 453 00:24:10,640 --> 00:24:12,800 Speaker 2: to trust I mean with Paris, I mean, I got 454 00:24:12,880 --> 00:24:16,560 Speaker 2: this nineteenth century thing of like leather tanneries, and I'm 455 00:24:16,600 --> 00:24:20,080 Speaker 2: sure I'm wrong on that, but they're still on for 456 00:24:20,200 --> 00:24:21,800 Speaker 2: swimming in the river leads well. 457 00:24:22,119 --> 00:24:24,560 Speaker 6: Last summer, it says organizers, actually they had to cancel 458 00:24:24,760 --> 00:24:26,800 Speaker 6: swimming events that were there. Is kind of this trial 459 00:24:26,920 --> 00:24:29,920 Speaker 6: run for the Olympics because the water quality tests showed 460 00:24:29,960 --> 00:24:32,280 Speaker 6: that there was just a high concentration back to that 461 00:24:32,359 --> 00:24:32,960 Speaker 6: was last summer. 462 00:24:33,560 --> 00:24:37,480 Speaker 3: All right, so the river thing aside, This Olympics should 463 00:24:37,480 --> 00:24:40,000 Speaker 3: be epic in Paris. I would think, Tom, you know, 464 00:24:40,119 --> 00:24:40,720 Speaker 3: you were just there. 465 00:24:40,760 --> 00:24:45,359 Speaker 2: But surveillance reporter casting Greifeld's she's all a question and 466 00:24:45,440 --> 00:24:48,159 Speaker 2: she's going out to Versailles or somewhere out there. I 467 00:24:48,240 --> 00:24:50,680 Speaker 2: don't know if she's watching her, if she's on the horse, Okay, 468 00:24:50,680 --> 00:24:52,680 Speaker 2: we'll figure we'll figure out what else do you have? 469 00:24:52,960 --> 00:24:57,040 Speaker 6: And lastly, it could happen economy. Airline tickets are more expensive, 470 00:24:57,119 --> 00:25:01,200 Speaker 6: but business class seats are getting cheaper. This is from Sirium. 471 00:25:01,480 --> 00:25:03,600 Speaker 6: They said the average domestic airfare in the US nearly 472 00:25:03,640 --> 00:25:06,640 Speaker 6: one hundred and eighty dollars and twenty twenty three, that's 473 00:25:06,720 --> 00:25:09,960 Speaker 6: up nine percent, but premium tickets have actually gone down 474 00:25:10,160 --> 00:25:13,080 Speaker 6: in relative terms. Twenty twenty three, business class ticket three 475 00:25:13,160 --> 00:25:14,119 Speaker 6: percent cheaper. 476 00:25:14,520 --> 00:25:16,359 Speaker 2: What do you think? Cool? There? It was? I don't know. 477 00:25:16,480 --> 00:25:18,760 Speaker 3: I mean, all I know is you book the flight 478 00:25:18,920 --> 00:25:21,280 Speaker 3: and then if you want like a little bit of legroom, boom, 479 00:25:21,359 --> 00:25:23,840 Speaker 3: another hundred bucks. You know, if you want like to 480 00:25:23,920 --> 00:25:26,560 Speaker 3: get like a soda, another one hundred bucks, and so 481 00:25:26,640 --> 00:25:29,080 Speaker 3: before you know it, your ticket's doubled. And that's how 482 00:25:29,119 --> 00:25:31,280 Speaker 3: they get here today. All a cart pricing, I think. 483 00:25:31,200 --> 00:25:33,679 Speaker 2: All a cart. I agree with the bags. 484 00:25:34,040 --> 00:25:36,240 Speaker 3: Yeah, so they're pricing. I mean it's tiered pricing. You 485 00:25:36,400 --> 00:25:39,199 Speaker 3: get it for Live Nation for tickets, and you get 486 00:25:39,240 --> 00:25:41,560 Speaker 3: it for airlines. Everybody's figuring out how to I'm. 487 00:25:41,480 --> 00:25:44,639 Speaker 2: Fast Colnebacker a count Colin has been really good and 488 00:25:44,720 --> 00:25:46,879 Speaker 2: this is the points guy. Good morning, goes reading the 489 00:25:46,960 --> 00:25:51,639 Speaker 2: Points Guy yesterday, and I'm beginning to see empty seats 490 00:25:51,680 --> 00:25:54,000 Speaker 2: in business class. That's well, that's what they're saying, right I. 491 00:25:55,320 --> 00:25:57,640 Speaker 2: It was sold out, and it's not sold out anymore. 492 00:25:57,680 --> 00:25:59,399 Speaker 2: There's no question right about that. 493 00:25:59,600 --> 00:26:03,160 Speaker 6: They want to bring that business, those business people travelers 494 00:26:03,200 --> 00:26:03,560 Speaker 6: back too. 495 00:26:04,520 --> 00:26:06,480 Speaker 2: I'll see the problem is I can't get the golf 496 00:26:06,520 --> 00:26:11,119 Speaker 2: stream anymore. Girls show now, girls back. He's got I 497 00:26:11,200 --> 00:26:13,360 Speaker 2: gotta have it. I got. He's going to some bluegrass 498 00:26:13,520 --> 00:26:16,040 Speaker 2: festival down south, and I don't know what he's doing. 499 00:26:16,119 --> 00:26:18,159 Speaker 1: Do you fly economy? Uh? 500 00:26:18,760 --> 00:26:21,040 Speaker 3: Yeah, except when Bob, you know, pays up from when 501 00:26:21,080 --> 00:26:22,880 Speaker 3: I go down to Nashville to do some off site, 502 00:26:22,920 --> 00:26:26,159 Speaker 3: I'm going first class, baby, and you know got crazy 503 00:26:26,240 --> 00:26:27,600 Speaker 3: with the Tito's rocks twist. 504 00:26:28,760 --> 00:26:30,359 Speaker 2: My father died and I had to take you know, 505 00:26:30,440 --> 00:26:33,960 Speaker 2: the usual father died of emergency flight and I could 506 00:26:34,040 --> 00:26:36,760 Speaker 2: not fit in the chair. I mean it was like 507 00:26:36,920 --> 00:26:40,280 Speaker 2: Fenway Park, you know, it was a park, just the 508 00:26:40,320 --> 00:26:43,560 Speaker 2: grand seat. I literally couldn't. I set up the whole 509 00:26:43,600 --> 00:26:46,360 Speaker 2: way to Portland, Oregon, the whole way. 510 00:26:46,920 --> 00:26:48,800 Speaker 4: We got two seats. 511 00:26:49,280 --> 00:26:53,000 Speaker 2: Yeah, and even to be honest, most business classes aren't 512 00:26:53,040 --> 00:26:56,080 Speaker 2: that good morning air of France, which does it all right? 513 00:26:56,200 --> 00:26:58,600 Speaker 2: That was great, Lisa Buttato, thank you so much. This 514 00:26:58,760 --> 00:27:03,920 Speaker 2: is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast, bringing you the best in economics, finance, investment, 515 00:27:04,119 --> 00:27:07,720 Speaker 2: and international relations. You can also watch the show live 516 00:27:07,960 --> 00:27:12,240 Speaker 2: on YouTube. 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