1 00:00:01,040 --> 00:00:06,240 Speaker 1: This is the Action Network Podcast. That's when you have 2 00:00:06,440 --> 00:00:09,920 Speaker 1: fun when you're kicking somebody's ass and they're sucking for 3 00:00:10,080 --> 00:00:18,520 Speaker 1: when I was good. Ready, go in bolder on the baseline, Bob, Yeah, 4 00:00:21,560 --> 00:00:36,360 Speaker 1: way outside there it is we whoa, whoa. Welcome to 5 00:00:36,400 --> 00:00:39,760 Speaker 1: the Action Network podcast presented by FanDuel. This is the 6 00:00:39,800 --> 00:00:43,479 Speaker 1: Giffing Guide to March Madness. I'm Nick Giffen, predictive analyst 7 00:00:43,560 --> 00:00:45,440 Speaker 1: here at Action Network, and I'm here to talk you 8 00:00:45,479 --> 00:00:49,560 Speaker 1: through a fun way to bet March Madness. I've used 9 00:00:49,560 --> 00:00:53,400 Speaker 1: this system for several years to have just a fun sweat, 10 00:00:53,400 --> 00:00:56,720 Speaker 1: and this system is designed to have plenty of upside 11 00:00:57,120 --> 00:01:00,560 Speaker 1: in your betting results while limiting your law to a 12 00:01:00,600 --> 00:01:04,120 Speaker 1: manageable two units, all while getting to sweat plenty of 13 00:01:04,240 --> 00:01:07,280 Speaker 1: underdogs during the tournament. I mean, who doesn't love a 14 00:01:07,319 --> 00:01:11,920 Speaker 1: good underdog story? Right, So let's get into the overview 15 00:01:12,040 --> 00:01:14,640 Speaker 1: of this system and then I will give you my 16 00:01:14,800 --> 00:01:19,160 Speaker 1: eight picks for this year's give a Guide to March Madness. 17 00:01:19,600 --> 00:01:22,959 Speaker 1: All right, so let's start with a little explainer. And 18 00:01:23,400 --> 00:01:26,240 Speaker 1: the way I'm gonna do this is, let's imagine we're 19 00:01:26,240 --> 00:01:28,800 Speaker 1: flipping a coin. Right. A coin has a fifty to 20 00:01:28,800 --> 00:01:31,280 Speaker 1: fifty outcome. A fair coin has a fifty to fifty outcome. 21 00:01:31,640 --> 00:01:35,800 Speaker 1: So let's put twenty five dollars on each coin flip. 22 00:01:36,480 --> 00:01:38,720 Speaker 1: If you treat the ncaa tournament kind of like a 23 00:01:38,760 --> 00:01:42,560 Speaker 1: series of coin flips, then if you bet a twenty 24 00:01:42,640 --> 00:01:46,520 Speaker 1: five dollars bet on an even money team versus another team, 25 00:01:47,000 --> 00:01:49,560 Speaker 1: if they win, you double that money. Right, you'd win 26 00:01:49,560 --> 00:01:52,919 Speaker 1: your twenty five dollars back plus the twenty five dollars 27 00:01:52,920 --> 00:01:55,600 Speaker 1: you want for winning that. Then you'd have fifty bucks. 28 00:01:56,400 --> 00:01:59,200 Speaker 1: And then let's flip another coin. Right, So let's say 29 00:01:59,200 --> 00:02:02,480 Speaker 1: we got heads, and we flip another coin and we 30 00:02:02,520 --> 00:02:05,640 Speaker 1: get heads again. Then that fifty dollars we bet now 31 00:02:05,680 --> 00:02:08,720 Speaker 1: turns into one hundred dollars. Well, if you do this 32 00:02:08,960 --> 00:02:12,200 Speaker 1: every single time, it's called rolling it up or rolling 33 00:02:12,240 --> 00:02:16,280 Speaker 1: over your winnings. If you rolled up your winnings every 34 00:02:16,320 --> 00:02:19,560 Speaker 1: single time, plus your original bet on even money bets 35 00:02:19,600 --> 00:02:22,399 Speaker 1: all the way through the tournament, your initial twenty five 36 00:02:22,440 --> 00:02:26,080 Speaker 1: dollars investment would turn into sixteen hundred dollars if your 37 00:02:26,120 --> 00:02:29,040 Speaker 1: team won at all, or you know, if you were 38 00:02:29,080 --> 00:02:33,760 Speaker 1: to get several straight coin flips of heads in a row. 39 00:02:34,200 --> 00:02:38,239 Speaker 1: So that's the idea here is. You know, if you 40 00:02:38,320 --> 00:02:41,480 Speaker 1: do that, that twenty five dollars turns into sixteen hundred bucks. 41 00:02:41,880 --> 00:02:46,120 Speaker 1: That's sixty four to one odds. So that number seems 42 00:02:46,160 --> 00:02:50,120 Speaker 1: pretty nice. But suddenly, let's say we pick an underdog team, 43 00:02:50,560 --> 00:02:53,640 Speaker 1: then we're no longer getting even money, right, We're no 44 00:02:53,720 --> 00:02:56,880 Speaker 1: longer flipping a fair coin. We're flipping a weighted coin. 45 00:02:57,120 --> 00:03:00,760 Speaker 1: So if you get an underdog team through pretty far 46 00:03:00,880 --> 00:03:03,480 Speaker 1: in the tournament, especially if they were to win it all, 47 00:03:03,720 --> 00:03:05,840 Speaker 1: then all of a sudden, you get much longer than 48 00:03:05,919 --> 00:03:08,440 Speaker 1: sixty four to one odds, And if you just bet 49 00:03:08,480 --> 00:03:11,280 Speaker 1: that team's future to win the tournament, you would not 50 00:03:11,320 --> 00:03:13,799 Speaker 1: get as good result just betting on their future as 51 00:03:13,880 --> 00:03:16,760 Speaker 1: rolling them up money line every game. Let's use an 52 00:03:16,760 --> 00:03:20,440 Speaker 1: example from this year's tournament. So Iowa is an eight 53 00:03:20,560 --> 00:03:24,760 Speaker 1: seed in the Midwest, and currently they are even money 54 00:03:24,880 --> 00:03:28,919 Speaker 1: versus the nine seed Auburn to win that game. So 55 00:03:29,280 --> 00:03:31,480 Speaker 1: if you bet twenty five dollars on Iowa and they win, 56 00:03:31,639 --> 00:03:34,160 Speaker 1: you get your twenty five dollars dollars back, plus the 57 00:03:34,200 --> 00:03:40,240 Speaker 1: twenty five dollars for winning even money against Auburn. Then 58 00:03:40,440 --> 00:03:43,440 Speaker 1: they would likely be an underdog because their next game 59 00:03:43,480 --> 00:03:47,760 Speaker 1: would probably almost surely be against number one seed Houston 60 00:03:48,240 --> 00:03:51,440 Speaker 1: barring a one to sixteen upset there, so they'd likely 61 00:03:51,480 --> 00:03:54,480 Speaker 1: be a significant underdog in there in their game against Houston. 62 00:03:54,840 --> 00:03:57,800 Speaker 1: If they somehow won that, they're probably gonna be an 63 00:03:57,840 --> 00:04:01,400 Speaker 1: underdog in their Sweet sixteen game, and so and so on. 64 00:04:01,560 --> 00:04:05,160 Speaker 1: So if you get Iowa to win the National Championship 65 00:04:05,240 --> 00:04:09,600 Speaker 1: using this method, you're gonna get much better than eighty 66 00:04:09,640 --> 00:04:12,040 Speaker 1: to one to win it all because of the significant 67 00:04:12,120 --> 00:04:14,680 Speaker 1: underdog will be first of all versus Houston, and then 68 00:04:14,720 --> 00:04:17,080 Speaker 1: the underdog money you'll get as they get further and 69 00:04:17,120 --> 00:04:19,080 Speaker 1: further in the tournament as they face better and better 70 00:04:19,120 --> 00:04:23,600 Speaker 1: teams as well. But just by betting their future right now, 71 00:04:23,640 --> 00:04:26,240 Speaker 1: it is eighty to one, So you know you're not 72 00:04:26,360 --> 00:04:29,000 Speaker 1: getting as good of an investment on Iowa by betting 73 00:04:29,080 --> 00:04:32,320 Speaker 1: them to win the National Championship as you would be 74 00:04:32,400 --> 00:04:34,320 Speaker 1: to just bet the money line and roll it up 75 00:04:34,520 --> 00:04:36,599 Speaker 1: every game. Now. I use Iowa as an example here 76 00:04:36,640 --> 00:04:38,520 Speaker 1: because they're not a team i'm picking. I do not 77 00:04:38,640 --> 00:04:43,120 Speaker 1: recommend betting them in this system or as a future 78 00:04:43,320 --> 00:04:45,440 Speaker 1: to win the National Championship, but I wanted to give 79 00:04:45,440 --> 00:04:48,599 Speaker 1: you an idea because it explains the system very well. 80 00:04:48,600 --> 00:04:50,440 Speaker 1: They're a team that you're gonna get at least even 81 00:04:50,480 --> 00:04:53,480 Speaker 1: money on probably in every single game in this tournament. 82 00:04:53,800 --> 00:04:56,360 Speaker 1: So by using this system, you get them much longer 83 00:04:56,400 --> 00:04:59,520 Speaker 1: than eighty to one to win the tournament instead of 84 00:04:59,560 --> 00:05:02,800 Speaker 1: betting their future at eighty to one. So that's kind 85 00:05:02,800 --> 00:05:05,560 Speaker 1: of the idea of this system, and I have used 86 00:05:05,680 --> 00:05:08,960 Speaker 1: this system in four years in the past. In twenty seventeen, 87 00:05:09,240 --> 00:05:11,960 Speaker 1: I was able to identify eleven seed Xavier and they 88 00:05:11,960 --> 00:05:14,400 Speaker 1: made it all the way to the Elite Eight. In 89 00:05:14,480 --> 00:05:17,719 Speaker 1: twenty eighteen, I got another eleven seed Loyola to the 90 00:05:17,760 --> 00:05:20,600 Speaker 1: Elite Eight, and that Loyola team actually ended up making 91 00:05:20,600 --> 00:05:22,760 Speaker 1: it to the Final Four as well. I cashed out 92 00:05:22,760 --> 00:05:24,240 Speaker 1: on them in the Elite eight, but they did make 93 00:05:24,279 --> 00:05:26,960 Speaker 1: it to the Final four. And then in twenty nineteen, 94 00:05:27,200 --> 00:05:31,000 Speaker 1: I took the five seed Auburn and they also made 95 00:05:31,000 --> 00:05:34,320 Speaker 1: it to the Final four. Twenty twenty was the COVID year. 96 00:05:34,520 --> 00:05:37,359 Speaker 1: Twenty twenty one. I didn't really want to bet on 97 00:05:37,560 --> 00:05:42,000 Speaker 1: because of all the craziness from COVID still going on, 98 00:05:42,080 --> 00:05:44,800 Speaker 1: with players missing in team, you know, throughout the season. 99 00:05:45,000 --> 00:05:47,000 Speaker 1: I felt like it didn't make my power ratings quite 100 00:05:47,040 --> 00:05:49,440 Speaker 1: as accurate, So I sat out twenty twenty one as 101 00:05:49,440 --> 00:05:53,920 Speaker 1: well last year for twenty twenty two. Unfortunately, obviously this 102 00:05:54,000 --> 00:05:57,320 Speaker 1: system doesn't work every time we won one out of 103 00:05:57,360 --> 00:05:59,440 Speaker 1: the nine games, right, we bet on eight teams and 104 00:05:59,480 --> 00:06:02,800 Speaker 1: we did hit the play in game with Indiana, but 105 00:06:02,839 --> 00:06:06,240 Speaker 1: then they lost in the first round. So very bad 106 00:06:06,320 --> 00:06:09,080 Speaker 1: year last year, but hey, that happens. At least we 107 00:06:09,160 --> 00:06:13,080 Speaker 1: limit our losses to two units doing this system. So 108 00:06:14,040 --> 00:06:16,560 Speaker 1: let's get into an overview in the system. How does 109 00:06:16,600 --> 00:06:20,960 Speaker 1: it work? What exactly are we doing for this system. 110 00:06:21,000 --> 00:06:24,760 Speaker 1: We're gonna pick eight teams in this tournament. Ideally, these 111 00:06:24,839 --> 00:06:27,479 Speaker 1: eight teams that we pick are gonna be five seed 112 00:06:27,760 --> 00:06:31,080 Speaker 1: or higher. And it's even better, you know, if they're 113 00:06:31,520 --> 00:06:34,800 Speaker 1: beyond like an eight seed or a nine seed, because 114 00:06:34,839 --> 00:06:37,760 Speaker 1: then we're going to typically get them at significant plus 115 00:06:37,800 --> 00:06:42,920 Speaker 1: money odds on the money line in these games. So ideally, 116 00:06:43,279 --> 00:06:46,120 Speaker 1: in a perfect world with a sixty four team bracket, 117 00:06:46,560 --> 00:06:50,120 Speaker 1: there are eight eighths of the bracket. The top half 118 00:06:50,120 --> 00:06:53,200 Speaker 1: in the bottom half of each region would give us 119 00:06:53,480 --> 00:06:58,280 Speaker 1: eight quadrants, not quadrants, eight eighths of the bracket. So 120 00:06:58,800 --> 00:07:01,920 Speaker 1: that way, if we get all eight teams, you know 121 00:07:02,440 --> 00:07:04,760 Speaker 1: to the Elite eight, they would finally face each other 122 00:07:04,760 --> 00:07:09,239 Speaker 1: in the Elite eight instead of beforehand, but that typically 123 00:07:09,320 --> 00:07:12,480 Speaker 1: doesn't work out because there are certain brackets, certain eighths 124 00:07:12,520 --> 00:07:15,800 Speaker 1: of the region that are much stronger than others where 125 00:07:16,000 --> 00:07:19,559 Speaker 1: underdog value I don't find. So if we do pick 126 00:07:19,640 --> 00:07:22,320 Speaker 1: two teams from the same eighth of the bracket where 127 00:07:22,360 --> 00:07:24,840 Speaker 1: they would face each other before the Elite eight, we 128 00:07:24,920 --> 00:07:27,920 Speaker 1: try to target them facing each other in the Sweet sixteen, 129 00:07:28,360 --> 00:07:30,240 Speaker 1: And if we do get them to face each other 130 00:07:30,280 --> 00:07:32,480 Speaker 1: in the Sweet sixteen, well then that's great because we 131 00:07:32,520 --> 00:07:34,720 Speaker 1: won in the first round. We won in the second 132 00:07:34,800 --> 00:07:37,320 Speaker 1: round with both of those teams, So when they face 133 00:07:37,360 --> 00:07:39,320 Speaker 1: each other, we can just cash out the profits there 134 00:07:39,360 --> 00:07:43,640 Speaker 1: and essentially lock ourselves in to having at least a 135 00:07:43,760 --> 00:07:47,560 Speaker 1: neutral betting system for this year, you know, at least 136 00:07:47,560 --> 00:07:52,720 Speaker 1: breaking even So if that happens, that's totally fine. It's 137 00:07:52,800 --> 00:07:55,200 Speaker 1: also likely that you know, one of those teams loses, 138 00:07:55,280 --> 00:07:57,760 Speaker 1: and we can still just roll one of these teams 139 00:07:57,840 --> 00:08:01,160 Speaker 1: to the Elite eight anyway if they get there. So 140 00:08:01,240 --> 00:08:04,240 Speaker 1: the overall goal of this system is to guarantee a 141 00:08:04,280 --> 00:08:07,680 Speaker 1: profit by getting one of our eight teams into the 142 00:08:07,680 --> 00:08:11,160 Speaker 1: Elite eight. Or you know to It is a backup 143 00:08:11,200 --> 00:08:13,480 Speaker 1: circumstance to have two of our teams face each other 144 00:08:13,520 --> 00:08:16,000 Speaker 1: and cash out those profits there. But the overall goal 145 00:08:16,280 --> 00:08:18,600 Speaker 1: is did you get just one? Just All we need 146 00:08:18,680 --> 00:08:22,760 Speaker 1: is one Cinderella story, one team to make the Elite 147 00:08:22,760 --> 00:08:25,360 Speaker 1: eight out of our eight picks, and that'll get us 148 00:08:25,400 --> 00:08:30,400 Speaker 1: a profit and sometimes potentially a very significant profit depending 149 00:08:30,560 --> 00:08:33,560 Speaker 1: on how much of an underdog that team is that 150 00:08:33,640 --> 00:08:37,360 Speaker 1: gets to the Elite eight. So how do we do this? 151 00:08:37,400 --> 00:08:41,160 Speaker 1: How do we go about identifying the eight teams? Well, 152 00:08:42,000 --> 00:08:46,320 Speaker 1: I use a bunch of metrics and because of course 153 00:08:46,360 --> 00:08:48,160 Speaker 1: at Action Network come a predictve analyst, and I do 154 00:08:48,200 --> 00:08:50,880 Speaker 1: a lot of different sports. I'm not gonna do all 155 00:08:50,960 --> 00:08:54,480 Speaker 1: the work myself. I'm gonna let other people do the 156 00:08:54,520 --> 00:08:56,760 Speaker 1: work for me. And by what I mean by that 157 00:08:56,960 --> 00:09:01,400 Speaker 1: is there are tons of computer or rating systems out 158 00:09:01,440 --> 00:09:04,920 Speaker 1: there right. A lot of the common ones are ken Palm, 159 00:09:04,960 --> 00:09:09,040 Speaker 1: for example. People will always reference ken Palm. Well, what 160 00:09:09,120 --> 00:09:11,120 Speaker 1: I do is, and I do include ken Palm, is 161 00:09:11,120 --> 00:09:14,520 Speaker 1: I build my own power rating system by ensembling the 162 00:09:14,559 --> 00:09:18,920 Speaker 1: most predictive ranking systems together. So I'm not looking at 163 00:09:18,960 --> 00:09:22,080 Speaker 1: ones that explain past wins. Well, just because a team is, 164 00:09:22,320 --> 00:09:25,120 Speaker 1: you know, twenty eight and two, doesn't mean they should 165 00:09:25,200 --> 00:09:27,200 Speaker 1: be a twenty eight and two team. Maybe they've gotten 166 00:09:27,320 --> 00:09:29,760 Speaker 1: very lucky with some of their wins, they've won a 167 00:09:29,760 --> 00:09:32,439 Speaker 1: bunch of close ones, and then their losses were blowouts, 168 00:09:32,679 --> 00:09:35,040 Speaker 1: or maybe it just depends on the strength of the schedule. 169 00:09:35,240 --> 00:09:37,480 Speaker 1: So the idea is I'm taking the ones that are 170 00:09:37,520 --> 00:09:42,280 Speaker 1: the most predictive, forward looking and ensembling to them to 171 00:09:42,360 --> 00:09:45,240 Speaker 1: get them together, and then I'm adjusting those four injuries right, 172 00:09:45,320 --> 00:09:49,120 Speaker 1: because certain teams may look really strong. Tennessee is an 173 00:09:49,120 --> 00:09:51,800 Speaker 1: example from this year. They're a very strong team by 174 00:09:52,120 --> 00:09:55,800 Speaker 1: ensembling ranking systems together, but they do have one of 175 00:09:55,800 --> 00:09:59,439 Speaker 1: their best players out with injury, so I need to 176 00:09:59,480 --> 00:10:01,719 Speaker 1: adjust them downward for injuries. So I have a way 177 00:10:01,760 --> 00:10:05,000 Speaker 1: of doing that as well. And by ensembling all of 178 00:10:05,040 --> 00:10:08,640 Speaker 1: these predictive ranking systems together, what we do is we 179 00:10:08,679 --> 00:10:12,080 Speaker 1: smooth out the rough edges in any one ranking system. 180 00:10:12,280 --> 00:10:15,960 Speaker 1: So each ranking system will have its own blind spots, 181 00:10:16,200 --> 00:10:18,600 Speaker 1: teams that they're too low on, teams that they're too 182 00:10:18,679 --> 00:10:22,840 Speaker 1: high on. But by ensembling them together the most predictive ones, 183 00:10:23,040 --> 00:10:28,200 Speaker 1: we can get a nice, really accurate measurement of team strength. 184 00:10:29,120 --> 00:10:31,920 Speaker 1: Then you know that's not just the only thing I use. 185 00:10:31,920 --> 00:10:34,760 Speaker 1: I still want to dive into the particular matchups themselves. 186 00:10:34,960 --> 00:10:37,080 Speaker 1: And one thing I love to do when I'm taking 187 00:10:37,240 --> 00:10:41,080 Speaker 1: underdogs is I love to look at pace of play. 188 00:10:41,520 --> 00:10:44,600 Speaker 1: Every team plays at their own pace. Right, Alabama they 189 00:10:44,640 --> 00:10:48,880 Speaker 1: play at a breakneck speed. Virginia they play at a 190 00:10:48,920 --> 00:10:53,360 Speaker 1: slow plotting pace. Well, what that means is when teams 191 00:10:53,440 --> 00:10:57,800 Speaker 1: play at a slower pace, there are fewer overall possessions. 192 00:10:57,880 --> 00:11:00,920 Speaker 1: And when that happens, all of a sudden, those teams 193 00:11:00,920 --> 00:11:04,920 Speaker 1: that are favored have fewer possessions to assert their dominance, 194 00:11:05,000 --> 00:11:08,920 Speaker 1: to assert their efficiency advantage. Right, If just imagine a 195 00:11:08,960 --> 00:11:11,080 Speaker 1: one possession game, you have to tip off in the 196 00:11:11,080 --> 00:11:14,480 Speaker 1: first team to score wins. That would be almost a 197 00:11:14,520 --> 00:11:19,440 Speaker 1: coin flip in nearly every game. So that goes to 198 00:11:19,520 --> 00:11:23,959 Speaker 1: show why more possessions is better for a favored team 199 00:11:24,400 --> 00:11:28,240 Speaker 1: because they have more opportunities to assert their efficiency. But 200 00:11:28,679 --> 00:11:33,600 Speaker 1: fewer possessions helps an underdog story. So that's definitely one 201 00:11:33,600 --> 00:11:36,439 Speaker 1: of the things I will look at as well. Aside 202 00:11:36,480 --> 00:11:39,760 Speaker 1: from just power ratings, another thing I like to look 203 00:11:39,760 --> 00:11:44,120 Speaker 1: at is something that increases variance for an underdog or 204 00:11:44,160 --> 00:11:47,079 Speaker 1: for a favorite, reduces variants. And some of those things 205 00:11:47,120 --> 00:11:50,760 Speaker 1: could be three point shooting. If an underdog team is 206 00:11:50,760 --> 00:11:54,280 Speaker 1: a particularly strong three point shooting team, or they're facing 207 00:11:54,320 --> 00:11:59,520 Speaker 1: a particularly weak three point shooting defense, that may help us. 208 00:12:00,320 --> 00:12:03,199 Speaker 1: Thing that could be the situation would be foul trouble potential. 209 00:12:03,559 --> 00:12:06,840 Speaker 1: Does the favored team have the potential to get into 210 00:12:07,000 --> 00:12:10,640 Speaker 1: foul trouble and remove some of their best players? Or 211 00:12:11,240 --> 00:12:13,960 Speaker 1: on the flip side, is the favorite team a poor 212 00:12:14,160 --> 00:12:17,160 Speaker 1: foul shooting team. If they're ahead by a little bit 213 00:12:17,600 --> 00:12:19,920 Speaker 1: late in the game, you know, they start missing some 214 00:12:19,960 --> 00:12:23,160 Speaker 1: of those free throws. That definitely gives a little bit 215 00:12:23,200 --> 00:12:26,880 Speaker 1: of extra variance toward the underdog here. So these are 216 00:12:26,920 --> 00:12:30,280 Speaker 1: just some of the metrics that I'm using when I'm 217 00:12:30,280 --> 00:12:34,840 Speaker 1: trying to pick my eight teams. The other thing is 218 00:12:35,440 --> 00:12:38,800 Speaker 1: just looking at particularly this year, we have to look 219 00:12:39,040 --> 00:12:41,680 Speaker 1: at the team. So using those metrics that I've looked at, 220 00:12:42,000 --> 00:12:45,080 Speaker 1: we have some pretty tough sections of the bracket, And 221 00:12:45,200 --> 00:12:48,439 Speaker 1: for me, the most challenging one eighth of the bracket 222 00:12:48,840 --> 00:12:53,679 Speaker 1: is the UCLA Gonzaga eighth of the bracket. UCLA should 223 00:12:53,720 --> 00:12:56,840 Speaker 1: be a one seed and Gonzaga should be a two 224 00:12:56,880 --> 00:13:00,280 Speaker 1: seed by my power rating, So we have the strongest 225 00:13:00,280 --> 00:13:02,959 Speaker 1: two seed and the strongest three seed in the same 226 00:13:03,160 --> 00:13:06,840 Speaker 1: eighth of the bracket, and we don't have any particularly 227 00:13:06,920 --> 00:13:09,400 Speaker 1: strong underdog teams in that eighth of the bracket. So 228 00:13:09,440 --> 00:13:12,320 Speaker 1: I am avoiding that eighth of the bracket. That means 229 00:13:12,360 --> 00:13:16,280 Speaker 1: we need to double up somewhere else. So there's another 230 00:13:16,360 --> 00:13:18,240 Speaker 1: eighth of the bracket that I'm avoiding, and that is 231 00:13:18,280 --> 00:13:22,080 Speaker 1: the Alabama eighth of the bracket as well. I mentioned 232 00:13:22,240 --> 00:13:26,440 Speaker 1: their breakneck tempo and they're number two overall in my 233 00:13:26,559 --> 00:13:29,080 Speaker 1: power ratings, so it's a good section of the bracket 234 00:13:29,080 --> 00:13:31,480 Speaker 1: to avoid, which means I need to double up again 235 00:13:31,520 --> 00:13:34,080 Speaker 1: in another eighth of the bracket. But even with one 236 00:13:34,120 --> 00:13:36,160 Speaker 1: of those double ups, you'll see it actually works out 237 00:13:36,240 --> 00:13:40,559 Speaker 1: kind of nicely because we will still avoid potential Sweet 238 00:13:40,600 --> 00:13:43,520 Speaker 1: sixteen matchup because I will be picking one of those 239 00:13:43,520 --> 00:13:46,280 Speaker 1: teams in a play in game. We don't necessarily have 240 00:13:46,320 --> 00:13:48,160 Speaker 1: to get them the Elite eight. We can get them 241 00:13:48,360 --> 00:13:51,760 Speaker 1: to the Sweet sixteen. So before we get into my picks, 242 00:13:51,880 --> 00:13:54,600 Speaker 1: I just want to remind you all this is my system. 243 00:13:54,640 --> 00:13:58,800 Speaker 1: These are my picks. You can tweak this any way 244 00:13:58,880 --> 00:14:01,720 Speaker 1: you want. You can pick fewer teams. You can pick 245 00:14:02,120 --> 00:14:05,360 Speaker 1: more teams, although I wouldn't necessarily recommend more than eight 246 00:14:05,440 --> 00:14:08,120 Speaker 1: getting to the early eight. But you don't have to 247 00:14:08,120 --> 00:14:10,920 Speaker 1: tail my picks. You don't have to tail my exact teams. 248 00:14:11,400 --> 00:14:14,920 Speaker 1: If you like certain teams for certain reasons, I'm totally 249 00:14:14,920 --> 00:14:16,880 Speaker 1: for that. I've had a tough time picking a couple 250 00:14:16,960 --> 00:14:20,040 Speaker 1: of these, and I'll talk about those situations that I 251 00:14:20,080 --> 00:14:22,640 Speaker 1: think we're pretty tough and I would be very, very 252 00:14:22,920 --> 00:14:25,840 Speaker 1: totally okay with you flipping and taking the other team 253 00:14:26,040 --> 00:14:28,960 Speaker 1: in these spots. So these are just my eight picks 254 00:14:29,240 --> 00:14:33,120 Speaker 1: for the gift and guide to March Madness. So let's 255 00:14:33,280 --> 00:14:38,480 Speaker 1: dive right in. We're gonna start in the South region here, 256 00:14:39,200 --> 00:14:42,720 Speaker 1: and as I mentioned, we were going to avoid Alabama's 257 00:14:42,840 --> 00:14:46,240 Speaker 1: eighth of the bracket. So what that means is we're 258 00:14:46,240 --> 00:14:50,320 Speaker 1: gonna be doubling up on Arizona, the two seeds eighth 259 00:14:50,400 --> 00:14:53,400 Speaker 1: of the bracket here, and we're gonna start with Creighton, 260 00:14:53,840 --> 00:14:59,000 Speaker 1: the sixth seed in the South. My power ratings love Creighton. 261 00:14:59,080 --> 00:15:01,880 Speaker 1: They say Creyton be a borderline at three to four seed. 262 00:15:01,920 --> 00:15:04,000 Speaker 1: If you just line up all the sixty eight teams 263 00:15:04,000 --> 00:15:07,080 Speaker 1: in this tournament, right, they're around the twelfth or the 264 00:15:07,160 --> 00:15:10,920 Speaker 1: thirteenth best team in my power ratings in this tournament, 265 00:15:10,920 --> 00:15:13,240 Speaker 1: so that would put them ordinarily if you just see 266 00:15:13,280 --> 00:15:15,560 Speaker 1: that the teams off my power ratings as a borderline 267 00:15:15,600 --> 00:15:18,160 Speaker 1: three or four seed here for Creighton. So at a 268 00:15:18,240 --> 00:15:21,400 Speaker 1: six seed, people often look at that number. Betting markets 269 00:15:21,560 --> 00:15:24,760 Speaker 1: even often look at that number, and we'll adjust to 270 00:15:24,800 --> 00:15:27,160 Speaker 1: that because that's where the public money tends to come 271 00:15:27,160 --> 00:15:29,160 Speaker 1: in on. So the fact that they should be a 272 00:15:29,200 --> 00:15:31,120 Speaker 1: three or four seed, but they're a six seed, we 273 00:15:31,200 --> 00:15:33,400 Speaker 1: probably can get them at some good underdog money in 274 00:15:33,560 --> 00:15:36,360 Speaker 1: the later rounds. But in that first round they do 275 00:15:36,440 --> 00:15:39,920 Speaker 1: face NC State, my wolf Pack. I went to grad 276 00:15:39,960 --> 00:15:42,720 Speaker 1: school at NC State, So just a little note there, 277 00:15:42,880 --> 00:15:45,040 Speaker 1: I have no bias in these picks because I am 278 00:15:45,080 --> 00:15:47,680 Speaker 1: picking against my wolf Pack and the very first pick 279 00:15:47,680 --> 00:15:50,200 Speaker 1: with the gift and guide to March Madness. Now, NC 280 00:15:50,360 --> 00:15:54,320 Speaker 1: State is a great eleven seed matchup for Creighton. NC 281 00:15:54,480 --> 00:15:57,040 Speaker 1: State has not had many good wins this year. Their 282 00:15:57,080 --> 00:15:59,880 Speaker 1: best win is against Duke, but it was at home, 283 00:16:00,760 --> 00:16:03,480 Speaker 1: on the road, or in neutral site. They do not 284 00:16:03,800 --> 00:16:08,680 Speaker 1: have any top one hundred wins, so not looking particularly 285 00:16:08,720 --> 00:16:12,600 Speaker 1: elite here for NC State. The other thing is NC 286 00:16:12,720 --> 00:16:15,760 Speaker 1: State is a bit up tempo, which is good for 287 00:16:15,840 --> 00:16:18,920 Speaker 1: the favored team, which is Creighton of course, creating the 288 00:16:18,960 --> 00:16:20,840 Speaker 1: sixth seed versus the eleven seed, and Creton one of 289 00:16:20,840 --> 00:16:25,160 Speaker 1: my strongest teams for a six seed, the strongest six seed, 290 00:16:25,800 --> 00:16:28,600 Speaker 1: the more possessions they have, the better it is for 291 00:16:28,680 --> 00:16:31,800 Speaker 1: their efficiency advantage to set in. So I love the 292 00:16:31,840 --> 00:16:35,680 Speaker 1: matchup here versus NC State. I love the up tempo pace, 293 00:16:36,080 --> 00:16:38,880 Speaker 1: so I think they definitely get it done versus NC 294 00:16:39,160 --> 00:16:43,120 Speaker 1: State in the second round. Baylor is the three seed 295 00:16:43,360 --> 00:16:45,880 Speaker 1: in their eighth of the bracket and they would end 296 00:16:45,960 --> 00:16:50,160 Speaker 1: up facing Baylor if Baylor wins. But I have Creighton 297 00:16:50,160 --> 00:16:53,280 Speaker 1: and Baylor literally back to back in my power rankings, 298 00:16:53,400 --> 00:16:56,200 Speaker 1: so I mentioned right that that Creighton should be a 299 00:16:56,360 --> 00:16:59,960 Speaker 1: borderline three four seed. Well, Baylor is also a borderline 300 00:17:00,360 --> 00:17:04,800 Speaker 1: three four seed for me. So Baylor, just because of 301 00:17:04,800 --> 00:17:08,080 Speaker 1: the number and just because of the public perception, Bail 302 00:17:08,480 --> 00:17:11,960 Speaker 1: will probably be favored by odds makers. But I have 303 00:17:12,080 --> 00:17:14,600 Speaker 1: this game as a true coin flip, so we can 304 00:17:14,640 --> 00:17:18,360 Speaker 1: get Creighton here at plus money, which will help us 305 00:17:18,600 --> 00:17:22,240 Speaker 1: for that rolling it up kind of method here this system, 306 00:17:22,720 --> 00:17:25,320 Speaker 1: so if they make it past Baylor or whoever they 307 00:17:25,359 --> 00:17:29,240 Speaker 1: face there, then Creighton is in the sweet sixteen, and 308 00:17:29,880 --> 00:17:32,960 Speaker 1: if things all go according to plan, they would face 309 00:17:33,119 --> 00:17:36,360 Speaker 1: Arizona as the two seed. But per my power rankings, 310 00:17:36,440 --> 00:17:39,840 Speaker 1: Arizona is more like a mid three seed team. So 311 00:17:39,920 --> 00:17:45,840 Speaker 1: my power rankings literally have Arizona, Saint Mary's, Baylor, and Creighton. 312 00:17:46,000 --> 00:17:49,159 Speaker 1: So Arizona, Baylor, and Creighton are all really close together 313 00:17:49,359 --> 00:17:51,960 Speaker 1: to each other in my power rankings in this eighth 314 00:17:52,040 --> 00:17:54,720 Speaker 1: of the brackets. So again, this is pretty close to 315 00:17:54,840 --> 00:17:58,600 Speaker 1: a coin flip here, and that would be if they 316 00:17:58,640 --> 00:18:02,480 Speaker 1: face Arizona now Zona, there certainly is opportunity for them 317 00:18:02,560 --> 00:18:05,679 Speaker 1: to lose, and we'll talk about that in just a second. 318 00:18:06,000 --> 00:18:08,960 Speaker 1: But if they do play Arizona, they get kind of 319 00:18:09,000 --> 00:18:12,280 Speaker 1: a week or two seed here. So i'd have, you know, 320 00:18:12,400 --> 00:18:17,240 Speaker 1: Creighton pretty much even money here versus Arizona as well, 321 00:18:17,280 --> 00:18:20,280 Speaker 1: but we'll definitely get plus money on this one. So 322 00:18:20,320 --> 00:18:23,840 Speaker 1: how are we playing Creighton in the first round against 323 00:18:23,920 --> 00:18:26,560 Speaker 1: NC State. I'm going to take Creighton on the spread 324 00:18:27,119 --> 00:18:30,000 Speaker 1: minus five against NC State. That way, we're not laying 325 00:18:30,080 --> 00:18:34,280 Speaker 1: significant minus money. We want them to cover the spread 326 00:18:34,280 --> 00:18:36,199 Speaker 1: of minus five in the first round. So if they 327 00:18:36,240 --> 00:18:38,840 Speaker 1: don't we count them as out. Even if they win 328 00:18:38,920 --> 00:18:41,040 Speaker 1: by one or two or three, we count them as 329 00:18:41,080 --> 00:18:44,240 Speaker 1: out per this system, because we lost our twenty five 330 00:18:44,280 --> 00:18:47,520 Speaker 1: dollars investment or whatever dollar amount you want to make it. 331 00:18:48,040 --> 00:18:49,520 Speaker 1: You know, if you want to just do ten bucks 332 00:18:49,520 --> 00:18:52,159 Speaker 1: on each team and have eighty dollars invested, that's it. 333 00:18:52,240 --> 00:18:55,359 Speaker 1: And that's the nice thing about this system. You just 334 00:18:55,440 --> 00:18:58,160 Speaker 1: lose eighty bucks, but it has the potential to turn 335 00:18:58,160 --> 00:19:01,719 Speaker 1: into you know, a couple hundred dollars. For example. So 336 00:19:02,240 --> 00:19:04,760 Speaker 1: we're playing Creighton to cover the spread in the first 337 00:19:04,840 --> 00:19:07,560 Speaker 1: round against enci State, and then we're playing a money 338 00:19:07,560 --> 00:19:10,280 Speaker 1: line in the second round and money line in the 339 00:19:10,320 --> 00:19:14,440 Speaker 1: sweet sixteen to make the Elite eight. All right, that's 340 00:19:14,480 --> 00:19:17,280 Speaker 1: our first team, our second team, and this is a 341 00:19:17,400 --> 00:19:20,800 Speaker 1: double up spot. We are going to take Utah State 342 00:19:21,200 --> 00:19:25,320 Speaker 1: in that bottom half half of the South bracket as well. 343 00:19:25,800 --> 00:19:29,000 Speaker 1: Utah State is the ten seed here and they are 344 00:19:29,000 --> 00:19:31,640 Speaker 1: one of the most under seeded teams in the whole tournament. 345 00:19:32,040 --> 00:19:35,000 Speaker 1: They should be a seven seed per My Power rankings, 346 00:19:35,359 --> 00:19:38,840 Speaker 1: and in their first round matchup they face Missouri, who 347 00:19:39,040 --> 00:19:41,680 Speaker 1: is one of the most over seeded teams. Missouri should 348 00:19:41,680 --> 00:19:44,520 Speaker 1: be an eleven seed. Per My Power ratings, which if 349 00:19:44,560 --> 00:19:46,960 Speaker 1: you heard that, you know Utah State should be a seven, 350 00:19:46,960 --> 00:19:50,280 Speaker 1: Missouri should ben eleven. I have Utah State favored in 351 00:19:50,359 --> 00:19:54,679 Speaker 1: this matchup, and you know, odds makers do have Utah 352 00:19:54,720 --> 00:19:56,560 Speaker 1: State favored, but they have them at about a one 353 00:19:56,640 --> 00:19:59,280 Speaker 1: to a one and a half point favorite. I have 354 00:19:59,520 --> 00:20:02,720 Speaker 1: Utahs date as a three point favorite here. So we're 355 00:20:02,760 --> 00:20:06,439 Speaker 1: getting significant value here a point and a half or 356 00:20:06,440 --> 00:20:09,080 Speaker 1: even up to two points depending you know where you 357 00:20:09,160 --> 00:20:11,919 Speaker 1: get your odds. So this is a very good spot 358 00:20:11,960 --> 00:20:14,480 Speaker 1: for Utah State. We can still play them on the 359 00:20:14,480 --> 00:20:16,840 Speaker 1: money line because it is close enough to a coin flip. 360 00:20:16,880 --> 00:20:18,320 Speaker 1: It might you know, I might be like minus one 361 00:20:18,400 --> 00:20:20,919 Speaker 1: twenty minus one twenty five or something like that. But 362 00:20:21,000 --> 00:20:23,480 Speaker 1: that's enough because there'll be an underdog most likely in 363 00:20:23,520 --> 00:20:26,359 Speaker 1: their later games that I'm totally cool with, you know, 364 00:20:26,960 --> 00:20:29,360 Speaker 1: playing a money line in the first round game. If 365 00:20:29,359 --> 00:20:31,800 Speaker 1: they do get past Missouri in the first round, they 366 00:20:31,880 --> 00:20:35,320 Speaker 1: are likely to face Arizona. As we talked about, Arizona's 367 00:20:35,320 --> 00:20:38,160 Speaker 1: a two seed that grades out more like a three seed. Also, 368 00:20:38,160 --> 00:20:41,120 Speaker 1: there's no regional advantage for Arizona by playing in Sacramento. 369 00:20:41,359 --> 00:20:44,399 Speaker 1: You know, Utah State is close enough to Sacramento. Arizona 370 00:20:44,440 --> 00:20:47,200 Speaker 1: close enough to Sacramento that we're not really talking about 371 00:20:47,480 --> 00:20:50,280 Speaker 1: traveling across the country or anything like that. Arizona is 372 00:20:50,320 --> 00:20:53,680 Speaker 1: also not a good free throw shooting team, so if 373 00:20:53,720 --> 00:20:57,280 Speaker 1: they are ahead, there is potential for them to miss 374 00:20:57,320 --> 00:21:00,520 Speaker 1: some breethrows and give Utah State a couple of opportunities 375 00:21:00,560 --> 00:21:04,800 Speaker 1: there in a late close game. Arizona also not great 376 00:21:04,800 --> 00:21:07,960 Speaker 1: at defending the three, which is Utah States strength, so 377 00:21:08,000 --> 00:21:10,680 Speaker 1: this increases the variance, which is exactly what we want 378 00:21:10,720 --> 00:21:13,320 Speaker 1: from an underdog in this spot. Utah State is the 379 00:21:13,320 --> 00:21:16,600 Speaker 1: eleventh best three point percentage shooting team in the nation, 380 00:21:17,119 --> 00:21:19,800 Speaker 1: and they attempt forty two percent of their field goals 381 00:21:19,800 --> 00:21:22,879 Speaker 1: from three compared to a national average of thirty seven 382 00:21:22,960 --> 00:21:26,440 Speaker 1: point three percent, So they're not only good at making threes, 383 00:21:26,440 --> 00:21:29,880 Speaker 1: but they're launching them left and right. Meanwhile, Arizona allows 384 00:21:29,960 --> 00:21:32,240 Speaker 1: just over a third of the point scored against them 385 00:21:32,440 --> 00:21:34,800 Speaker 1: by way of the three ball, compared to a thirty 386 00:21:34,840 --> 00:21:38,159 Speaker 1: point eight percent national average. That's like three percent above 387 00:21:38,160 --> 00:21:41,960 Speaker 1: the national average, So definitely an increase variant spot here 388 00:21:42,119 --> 00:21:45,520 Speaker 1: for Utah State going into the Sweet sixteen. If they 389 00:21:45,560 --> 00:21:49,359 Speaker 1: advance past the round the second round, here they would 390 00:21:49,400 --> 00:21:53,280 Speaker 1: get that potential Baylor Creighton, uh you know, eighth the 391 00:21:53,520 --> 00:21:55,960 Speaker 1: quarter of the bracket there, I should say. And while 392 00:21:56,000 --> 00:21:58,399 Speaker 1: those aren't ideal matchups, you know, Baylor and Creyton are 393 00:21:58,440 --> 00:22:01,800 Speaker 1: both pretty strong. We do have the fact that if 394 00:22:01,840 --> 00:22:04,040 Speaker 1: they do face Creighton, we get to cash out. So 395 00:22:04,080 --> 00:22:07,919 Speaker 1: that's great. Now if they face Baylor in particular, Baylor 396 00:22:07,920 --> 00:22:10,560 Speaker 1: has been very lucky. At the Action Network, I do 397 00:22:10,600 --> 00:22:15,000 Speaker 1: something called our luck rankings for the NFL. Well Kenpomroy 398 00:22:15,040 --> 00:22:19,639 Speaker 1: at Kenpalm dot com has luck rankings for NCAA basketball, 399 00:22:19,640 --> 00:22:22,400 Speaker 1: and Baylor has been incredibly lucky with their win law 400 00:22:22,520 --> 00:22:27,679 Speaker 1: percentage despite having double digit losses. So you know, there 401 00:22:27,760 --> 00:22:30,199 Speaker 1: is a very real opportunity that they could beat Baylor 402 00:22:30,240 --> 00:22:33,800 Speaker 1: here if they do face Baylor. Baylor's especially has had 403 00:22:33,840 --> 00:22:37,840 Speaker 1: some inconsistent play from Adam Flagler. I notice when Adam 404 00:22:37,840 --> 00:22:40,800 Speaker 1: Flagler has had some down games, Baylor has tended to lose. 405 00:22:40,880 --> 00:22:42,760 Speaker 1: And you know why, I know that because I've bet 406 00:22:42,760 --> 00:22:45,520 Speaker 1: on Adam Flagler's overs and some player props a few 407 00:22:45,600 --> 00:22:47,760 Speaker 1: times and he's let me down every single time. So 408 00:22:48,080 --> 00:22:52,600 Speaker 1: I'm very personally attuned to that situation there. So overall, 409 00:22:52,600 --> 00:22:55,080 Speaker 1: how are we playing Utah State, We're just gonna play 410 00:22:55,080 --> 00:22:56,880 Speaker 1: a money line all the way up to the Sweet sixteen. 411 00:22:57,359 --> 00:23:01,800 Speaker 1: Hopefully we can cash out that Utah State opportunity here, 412 00:23:02,000 --> 00:23:05,240 Speaker 1: but if Utah State faces somebody other than Creighton, we're 413 00:23:05,280 --> 00:23:07,280 Speaker 1: just gonna money line them all the way to the 414 00:23:07,280 --> 00:23:12,040 Speaker 1: Elite eight. So that gets us through the South region. 415 00:23:12,640 --> 00:23:15,280 Speaker 1: We have three picks overall, sorry, two picks overall from 416 00:23:15,359 --> 00:23:17,960 Speaker 1: the South region. We're not picking anything from the top half, 417 00:23:18,400 --> 00:23:23,040 Speaker 1: So let's move on now to the Midwest region. I 418 00:23:23,080 --> 00:23:26,480 Speaker 1: really think this Midwest region on the top half is 419 00:23:26,960 --> 00:23:29,440 Speaker 1: kind of tough because we do have Houston, who I 420 00:23:29,480 --> 00:23:32,080 Speaker 1: have as the number one overall team in my power rankings. 421 00:23:32,119 --> 00:23:34,680 Speaker 1: But I think there's an angle here. So my third 422 00:23:34,720 --> 00:23:37,199 Speaker 1: pick is going to be from that top half of 423 00:23:37,240 --> 00:23:39,919 Speaker 1: the Midwest region. I'm going to take the twelve seed Drake. 424 00:23:40,720 --> 00:23:44,679 Speaker 1: Drake is the strongest twelve seed in this bracket for me, 425 00:23:44,880 --> 00:23:48,000 Speaker 1: and I don't think it's a question here. They're definitely 426 00:23:48,000 --> 00:23:50,960 Speaker 1: the strongest twelve seed. You could make an argument for Charleston, 427 00:23:51,000 --> 00:23:53,440 Speaker 1: but my power ratings have Drake a full point better 428 00:23:53,440 --> 00:23:56,800 Speaker 1: than Charleston in a neutral matchup. Should the two teams 429 00:23:56,840 --> 00:24:01,199 Speaker 1: ever face off in the first round face Miami, and 430 00:24:01,240 --> 00:24:04,840 Speaker 1: Miami is the weakest five seed here, so we get 431 00:24:04,840 --> 00:24:07,960 Speaker 1: the strongest twelve versus the weakest five. And we all 432 00:24:08,000 --> 00:24:10,800 Speaker 1: know how those five twelve matchups go, right. It always 433 00:24:10,800 --> 00:24:12,440 Speaker 1: seems like every year is at least one or two 434 00:24:12,720 --> 00:24:15,480 Speaker 1: twelve seeds winning. This is my pick for the best 435 00:24:15,680 --> 00:24:19,679 Speaker 1: twelve five upset. My power ratings make Miami closer to 436 00:24:19,760 --> 00:24:22,439 Speaker 1: one and a half to two point favorite rather than 437 00:24:22,480 --> 00:24:26,320 Speaker 1: the two and a half points the market is making Miami, 438 00:24:26,480 --> 00:24:28,960 Speaker 1: so I actually have Drake a little more likely to 439 00:24:29,000 --> 00:24:31,720 Speaker 1: win than the market is making. So definitely a great 440 00:24:31,840 --> 00:24:34,400 Speaker 1: money line play here. We're gonna get plus odds on 441 00:24:34,480 --> 00:24:37,119 Speaker 1: Drake to win this matchup if they do beat Miami, 442 00:24:37,600 --> 00:24:41,320 Speaker 1: they would if things go according to plan. Face Indiana 443 00:24:41,480 --> 00:24:44,280 Speaker 1: as the four seed here, but Indiana actually grades out 444 00:24:44,320 --> 00:24:46,640 Speaker 1: closer to a six to seven seed rather than a four, 445 00:24:46,760 --> 00:24:48,399 Speaker 1: So again a week four here, so we get a 446 00:24:48,440 --> 00:24:51,439 Speaker 1: week five and a week four in this portion of 447 00:24:51,480 --> 00:24:54,080 Speaker 1: the bracket, So I really like that we'd get plus 448 00:24:54,119 --> 00:24:56,560 Speaker 1: money odds against Indiana as well. And if they face 449 00:24:56,640 --> 00:24:58,840 Speaker 1: Kent State, it's nearly a you know, not nearly a 450 00:24:58,880 --> 00:25:01,480 Speaker 1: coin flip. Drake would cert be favored, but it's close 451 00:25:01,560 --> 00:25:03,080 Speaker 1: enough to a coin flip where if we play a 452 00:25:03,119 --> 00:25:05,800 Speaker 1: money line, it would be like minus one twenty five probably, 453 00:25:06,280 --> 00:25:08,320 Speaker 1: which is totally fine because we're getting that plus one 454 00:25:08,440 --> 00:25:11,760 Speaker 1: twenty five or so versus Miami, so that would even 455 00:25:11,800 --> 00:25:14,919 Speaker 1: out to be you know, we just essentially at that 456 00:25:15,040 --> 00:25:18,560 Speaker 1: point quadruple our money from our initial investment to four 457 00:25:18,560 --> 00:25:21,760 Speaker 1: times that amount should Drake get to the Sweet sixteen. Now, 458 00:25:21,800 --> 00:25:23,840 Speaker 1: if they do get to the Sweet sixteen, Houston is 459 00:25:23,880 --> 00:25:27,000 Speaker 1: obviously a tough out as the best overall team in 460 00:25:27,040 --> 00:25:29,920 Speaker 1: my Power ratings, But there is one little catch here. 461 00:25:30,800 --> 00:25:35,879 Speaker 1: Houston plays at a very slow pace and Drake also 462 00:25:35,960 --> 00:25:40,560 Speaker 1: plays at a slightly slower pace than national average. So 463 00:25:40,960 --> 00:25:43,960 Speaker 1: when the two teams face each other, that means we'll 464 00:25:43,960 --> 00:25:47,280 Speaker 1: have a low possession game, which doesn't give as many 465 00:25:47,560 --> 00:25:50,600 Speaker 1: possessions for Houston to assert their dominance. Now, if this 466 00:25:50,680 --> 00:25:53,960 Speaker 1: were an average paced game, I'd have Houston a twelve 467 00:25:54,040 --> 00:25:57,639 Speaker 1: point favorite, but at the projected pace, Houston would just 468 00:25:57,680 --> 00:25:59,680 Speaker 1: be about a ten point favorite. So you can see 469 00:25:59,720 --> 00:26:03,160 Speaker 1: how that keeps things a little bit closer here. So 470 00:26:03,600 --> 00:26:06,840 Speaker 1: there's also the possibility with Houston's slow pace of play 471 00:26:07,400 --> 00:26:10,000 Speaker 1: think about Virginia a few years ago when they lost 472 00:26:10,040 --> 00:26:12,240 Speaker 1: to UNBC in the first round as the one seed. 473 00:26:13,080 --> 00:26:18,080 Speaker 1: There is a possibility Houston is out after the second round, 474 00:26:18,800 --> 00:26:20,600 Speaker 1: either in the first round or the second round. Now 475 00:26:20,720 --> 00:26:23,680 Speaker 1: obviously probably not the first round, but it's certainly a possibility. 476 00:26:23,760 --> 00:26:26,200 Speaker 1: I do have that at around a four percent chance. 477 00:26:26,560 --> 00:26:29,240 Speaker 1: But then they face Iowa or Auburn, who certainly would 478 00:26:29,240 --> 00:26:32,080 Speaker 1: have a much better opportunity than Northern Texas. So there 479 00:26:32,119 --> 00:26:34,159 Speaker 1: is a possibility Houston is out just because of the 480 00:26:34,200 --> 00:26:36,520 Speaker 1: pace of play they play. And then you could get 481 00:26:36,800 --> 00:26:40,240 Speaker 1: Drake versus maybe an Auburn or in Iowa where it 482 00:26:40,240 --> 00:26:42,280 Speaker 1: would be a much better matchup for them. So how 483 00:26:42,320 --> 00:26:45,000 Speaker 1: are we gonna play Drake here? We're gonna money line 484 00:26:45,040 --> 00:26:48,600 Speaker 1: them to the Sweet sixteen if they beat and it 485 00:26:48,680 --> 00:26:50,840 Speaker 1: has to be this exact scenario, if they beat both 486 00:26:50,880 --> 00:26:53,919 Speaker 1: Miami and if they beat Indiana. So not if they 487 00:26:53,920 --> 00:26:56,080 Speaker 1: play Kent State, but if they beat Miami and they 488 00:26:56,119 --> 00:26:59,879 Speaker 1: beat Indiana, we can cash out if they play Houston, 489 00:27:00,080 --> 00:27:01,919 Speaker 1: not if they play another team, but if they play Houston. 490 00:27:01,960 --> 00:27:04,920 Speaker 1: So this exact scenario, if they if they beat Miami 491 00:27:05,400 --> 00:27:08,480 Speaker 1: and they beat Indiana, then they play Houston. We will 492 00:27:08,520 --> 00:27:10,840 Speaker 1: cash them out there at the Sweet sixteen instead of 493 00:27:10,880 --> 00:27:14,080 Speaker 1: rolling them to the Elite eight. Otherwise, we're gonna money 494 00:27:14,240 --> 00:27:17,400 Speaker 1: line them to the Elite eight in any other scenario, 495 00:27:17,720 --> 00:27:19,919 Speaker 1: like for example, if they play Kent State in the 496 00:27:19,960 --> 00:27:23,479 Speaker 1: second rouround, or if they play Iowa or Auburn in 497 00:27:23,640 --> 00:27:26,720 Speaker 1: the Sweet sixteen, then we'll just moneyline Drake all the 498 00:27:26,760 --> 00:27:28,640 Speaker 1: way to the Elite eight. So that's how I'm gonna 499 00:27:28,640 --> 00:27:33,040 Speaker 1: play the third pick here, Drake going to the other 500 00:27:33,240 --> 00:27:37,000 Speaker 1: side of the Midwest. I'm going to take Mississippi State 501 00:27:37,080 --> 00:27:39,120 Speaker 1: and they're the eleven seed. And this is the situation 502 00:27:39,200 --> 00:27:42,119 Speaker 1: I'm talking about here, They're in the playing game. So 503 00:27:43,119 --> 00:27:45,240 Speaker 1: you know, I think this is a nice spot because 504 00:27:45,240 --> 00:27:47,040 Speaker 1: we don't need to get them to the Elite eight, 505 00:27:47,480 --> 00:27:51,960 Speaker 1: where they could potentially face, you know, a tougher, tougher 506 00:27:52,000 --> 00:27:55,000 Speaker 1: team like Texas. All we need to do is get 507 00:27:55,000 --> 00:27:59,439 Speaker 1: them to the sweet sixteen to be profitable. Here, I 508 00:27:59,440 --> 00:28:02,320 Speaker 1: have missus Phippy State as the second best eleventh seed 509 00:28:02,320 --> 00:28:05,159 Speaker 1: in a tournament and they are playing one of the 510 00:28:05,160 --> 00:28:10,359 Speaker 1: worst eleven seeds in Pittsburgh. And in this spot I 511 00:28:10,440 --> 00:28:13,720 Speaker 1: have them favored over Pittsburgh. So what we'll do here 512 00:28:13,800 --> 00:28:16,639 Speaker 1: because this is close enough we can just moneyline them 513 00:28:16,680 --> 00:28:19,520 Speaker 1: in this game versus Pittsburgh, we don't necessarily have to 514 00:28:19,560 --> 00:28:22,639 Speaker 1: take them to cover the spread here. So we're gonna 515 00:28:22,640 --> 00:28:26,000 Speaker 1: we're gonnake Mississippi State over Pittsburgh because I have Mississippi 516 00:28:26,040 --> 00:28:30,600 Speaker 1: State as the better eleven seed here. Then in the 517 00:28:30,600 --> 00:28:34,120 Speaker 1: first round, Uh, if Mississippi State wins, they will play 518 00:28:34,119 --> 00:28:37,080 Speaker 1: Iowa State. And this is the coolest, essentially the coolest, 519 00:28:37,080 --> 00:28:39,680 Speaker 1: one of the coolest games in NCAA tournament history. If 520 00:28:39,680 --> 00:28:43,800 Speaker 1: this happens, uh, these two teams may combine for one 521 00:28:43,840 --> 00:28:46,960 Speaker 1: of the lowest totals all time in you know, the 522 00:28:47,080 --> 00:28:49,680 Speaker 1: past couple decades. I shouldn't say all time because you 523 00:28:49,680 --> 00:28:52,280 Speaker 1: know different shot clock aerors, but in the current shot 524 00:28:52,280 --> 00:28:55,400 Speaker 1: clock you know configuration, this may be one of the 525 00:28:55,440 --> 00:28:58,400 Speaker 1: lowest totals of all time in the tournament. We've got 526 00:28:58,400 --> 00:29:01,600 Speaker 1: too incredibly slow paced teams. Out of three hundred and 527 00:29:01,640 --> 00:29:04,600 Speaker 1: sixty three teams, Iowa State in Missisippi State would rank 528 00:29:04,600 --> 00:29:06,800 Speaker 1: three hundred twenty six and three hundred and thirty fourth 529 00:29:06,920 --> 00:29:10,240 Speaker 1: in pace of play. We also have two top eight defenses, 530 00:29:10,560 --> 00:29:14,720 Speaker 1: sixth and eighth best defensive efficiency per Ken Pom, and 531 00:29:14,720 --> 00:29:17,560 Speaker 1: then we have two mediocre offenses. If we just look 532 00:29:17,600 --> 00:29:20,120 Speaker 1: at the at large teams, these are two of the 533 00:29:20,160 --> 00:29:25,280 Speaker 1: bottom three teams in offense efficiency. So that means we're 534 00:29:25,280 --> 00:29:29,160 Speaker 1: getting a really low scoring game here, and when that happens, 535 00:29:29,200 --> 00:29:32,080 Speaker 1: a slow paced, low scoring game, this game could go 536 00:29:32,200 --> 00:29:37,560 Speaker 1: either way. I actually think while I do have Iowa 537 00:29:37,640 --> 00:29:41,240 Speaker 1: State favored by about a point here, I really truly 538 00:29:41,280 --> 00:29:43,720 Speaker 1: think this is a coin flip of a game. Iowa 539 00:29:43,760 --> 00:29:45,600 Speaker 1: State is a bad six seed. I actually have them 540 00:29:45,600 --> 00:29:48,360 Speaker 1: as an eight seed, so this is an ideal situation 541 00:29:48,640 --> 00:29:52,280 Speaker 1: for Mississippi State against Iowa State. Then if they win 542 00:29:52,320 --> 00:29:55,520 Speaker 1: that in the second round, they would play Xavier. Xavier 543 00:29:55,560 --> 00:29:57,920 Speaker 1: is a week seat three seed. I have them almost 544 00:29:57,960 --> 00:30:00,640 Speaker 1: a five seed here, so almost two seeds borderline four 545 00:30:00,720 --> 00:30:04,560 Speaker 1: or five here. And Xavier, of course is without Zach Fremantle. 546 00:30:04,600 --> 00:30:07,680 Speaker 1: He's missed about the past ten games or so, so 547 00:30:07,920 --> 00:30:11,040 Speaker 1: definitely getting a Week six and a Week three is 548 00:30:11,080 --> 00:30:13,760 Speaker 1: a great spot for an eleven seed. We're gonna money 549 00:30:13,800 --> 00:30:16,080 Speaker 1: line them all the way to the sweet sixteen, and 550 00:30:16,120 --> 00:30:18,320 Speaker 1: we could even make a decision if they're in the 551 00:30:18,320 --> 00:30:21,080 Speaker 1: sweet sixteen and they face let's say eight Texas A 552 00:30:21,120 --> 00:30:25,520 Speaker 1: and M or Penn State, or Colgate, I guess, although 553 00:30:25,520 --> 00:30:28,000 Speaker 1: I don't foresee Colgate making the Sweet sixteen, but if 554 00:30:28,000 --> 00:30:29,520 Speaker 1: it faced Texas A and M or Penn State, we 555 00:30:29,520 --> 00:30:31,360 Speaker 1: could even money line them all the way to the 556 00:30:31,400 --> 00:30:33,280 Speaker 1: Elite eight if we want to, or if you're happy 557 00:30:33,320 --> 00:30:35,600 Speaker 1: with cashing out your profits, you can cash out your profits. 558 00:30:35,600 --> 00:30:37,200 Speaker 1: I wouldn't money line them to the Elite eight if 559 00:30:37,240 --> 00:30:40,600 Speaker 1: they did face Texas, though I have Texas much better here. 560 00:30:41,080 --> 00:30:44,400 Speaker 1: All right, So that completes the Midwest region. We have 561 00:30:44,800 --> 00:30:48,320 Speaker 1: four picks under our belt. Let's go to the West 562 00:30:48,360 --> 00:30:51,200 Speaker 1: region where, because this is an absolute brutal region, I 563 00:30:51,440 --> 00:30:54,480 Speaker 1: just have one pick from the West. Remember I said 564 00:30:54,520 --> 00:30:57,680 Speaker 1: we're avoiding the UCLA Gonzaga eighth of the bracket. We 565 00:30:57,760 --> 00:30:59,480 Speaker 1: talked about that the best two and the best three 566 00:30:59,520 --> 00:31:03,400 Speaker 1: seed and no really strong underdogs. So instead we're gonna 567 00:31:03,440 --> 00:31:06,440 Speaker 1: look at the Kansas half of the bracket, and I 568 00:31:06,480 --> 00:31:08,800 Speaker 1: personally am gonna go with Arkansas. I think you could 569 00:31:08,800 --> 00:31:11,240 Speaker 1: go with Illinois here. I think you could go with 570 00:31:11,360 --> 00:31:13,960 Speaker 1: VCU here. I think you could go with Yukon here. 571 00:31:14,000 --> 00:31:15,880 Speaker 1: I know I try to take five seeds or longer, 572 00:31:16,040 --> 00:31:18,400 Speaker 1: but I think you could take Yukon to cover the 573 00:31:18,400 --> 00:31:20,640 Speaker 1: spread in the first round and then money line them 574 00:31:20,640 --> 00:31:23,320 Speaker 1: after that if you wanted to. This is an incredibly 575 00:31:23,600 --> 00:31:27,240 Speaker 1: loaded portion of the bracket. But I am going to 576 00:31:27,320 --> 00:31:31,000 Speaker 1: pick Arkansas simply because they are one of my most 577 00:31:31,200 --> 00:31:34,880 Speaker 1: under seeded teams in the whole bracket, even more so 578 00:31:35,120 --> 00:31:39,240 Speaker 1: than Yukon, even more so than Saint Mary's. So that's 579 00:31:39,280 --> 00:31:43,880 Speaker 1: why I'm sticking this eight to nine matchup Arkansas versus Illinois. Arkansas, 580 00:31:44,000 --> 00:31:45,840 Speaker 1: I have is the better team here, so I'm just 581 00:31:45,880 --> 00:31:49,240 Speaker 1: gonna take them. Arkansas also is in a spot where 582 00:31:49,240 --> 00:31:54,040 Speaker 1: they are up tempo, help them push that efficiency versus Illinois, 583 00:31:54,080 --> 00:31:56,640 Speaker 1: so I'm gonna take them here. They would almost surely 584 00:31:56,640 --> 00:32:00,480 Speaker 1: get Kansas, who is a pretty weak one seed. You know, 585 00:32:00,480 --> 00:32:03,480 Speaker 1: I have Kansas as a lower two seed actually in 586 00:32:03,560 --> 00:32:06,560 Speaker 1: my power ratings. Kansas I have as the seventh best 587 00:32:06,560 --> 00:32:09,479 Speaker 1: team in this tournament in my power ratings, So a 588 00:32:09,520 --> 00:32:11,880 Speaker 1: really nice spot to get Kansas where I think they 589 00:32:11,920 --> 00:32:14,040 Speaker 1: have a good chance to upset Kansas and we would 590 00:32:14,040 --> 00:32:16,200 Speaker 1: definitely get plus money there. So the way to play 591 00:32:16,280 --> 00:32:19,640 Speaker 1: Arkansas is just money line them the whole time. So 592 00:32:19,760 --> 00:32:22,400 Speaker 1: that's it for the West Region. We're not even doubling 593 00:32:22,480 --> 00:32:24,880 Speaker 1: up here. We just have that one pick because this 594 00:32:24,960 --> 00:32:28,000 Speaker 1: is an absolute brutal region. So our final three picks 595 00:32:28,080 --> 00:32:30,360 Speaker 1: are all going to come from the South region, and 596 00:32:30,400 --> 00:32:33,280 Speaker 1: there's a lot of goodness here. We've got Perdue as 597 00:32:33,320 --> 00:32:36,160 Speaker 1: the weakest one seed, We've got Marquette as the weakest 598 00:32:36,160 --> 00:32:40,080 Speaker 1: two seed, We've got Kansas State as the weakest three seed. 599 00:32:40,360 --> 00:32:43,520 Speaker 1: So this is a really, really good opportunity to pick 600 00:32:43,560 --> 00:32:47,120 Speaker 1: some underdogs in the South, and that's why we have 601 00:32:47,200 --> 00:32:48,959 Speaker 1: three picks here. We're going to have a double up 602 00:32:48,960 --> 00:32:51,440 Speaker 1: spot as well, but in the top half of this bracket, 603 00:32:51,680 --> 00:32:55,320 Speaker 1: the Purdue half of the bracket, I'm going to take 604 00:32:55,360 --> 00:32:58,200 Speaker 1: Florida Atlantic. I definitely understand if you want to take 605 00:32:58,320 --> 00:33:02,280 Speaker 1: Memphis as well, but I'm gonna take Florida Atlantic mainly 606 00:33:02,320 --> 00:33:04,440 Speaker 1: because I think this is just a spot where the 607 00:33:04,440 --> 00:33:08,480 Speaker 1: market is overcorrecting here from Memphis. I have Florida Atlantic 608 00:33:08,520 --> 00:33:10,640 Speaker 1: as the best nine seed. They should be an eight seed. 609 00:33:10,840 --> 00:33:13,640 Speaker 1: And while I think Memphis is a very good eight seed, again, 610 00:33:13,680 --> 00:33:16,520 Speaker 1: it's just all about value in this matchup, and I 611 00:33:16,520 --> 00:33:18,760 Speaker 1: think the matchup itself kind of sets up well. Florida 612 00:33:18,760 --> 00:33:22,480 Speaker 1: Atlantic is a great three point shooting team, and Memphis 613 00:33:22,920 --> 00:33:26,440 Speaker 1: allows a forty two point nine percent three point attempt 614 00:33:26,520 --> 00:33:30,280 Speaker 1: ratio per total field goals, so forty two point nine 615 00:33:30,280 --> 00:33:33,280 Speaker 1: percent of the field goals attempted against Memphis are three pointers. 616 00:33:33,400 --> 00:33:36,040 Speaker 1: That's thirty first highest in the nation. That's going to 617 00:33:36,120 --> 00:33:39,800 Speaker 1: increase variance for the underdog Florida Atlantic here. So again, 618 00:33:40,080 --> 00:33:41,880 Speaker 1: I definitely don't mind if you roll with Memphis here, 619 00:33:41,880 --> 00:33:44,640 Speaker 1: they're a strong eight seed. I'm playing Florida Atlantic because 620 00:33:44,640 --> 00:33:48,440 Speaker 1: I have Memphis as a one at most one and 621 00:33:48,440 --> 00:33:51,000 Speaker 1: a half point favorite, and the market is giving us 622 00:33:51,040 --> 00:33:52,920 Speaker 1: two and a half points on Florida Atlantic, so that 623 00:33:52,960 --> 00:33:55,720 Speaker 1: means even on the money line, we're getting better value here. 624 00:33:55,960 --> 00:33:59,040 Speaker 1: So I'm gonna take Florida Atlantic just for the value here. 625 00:33:59,360 --> 00:34:00,680 Speaker 1: But I can see you, you know, if you want 626 00:34:00,680 --> 00:34:02,640 Speaker 1: to go different from me here, definitely see you wanting 627 00:34:02,640 --> 00:34:05,240 Speaker 1: to take Memphis. In the second round, they get Purdue, 628 00:34:05,240 --> 00:34:07,640 Speaker 1: who I mention is the worst one seed. And Purdue 629 00:34:07,760 --> 00:34:10,080 Speaker 1: that's nice because even though they're the more efficiency, they 630 00:34:10,080 --> 00:34:13,640 Speaker 1: play at a super plotting pace, which is awesome. And 631 00:34:13,840 --> 00:34:16,800 Speaker 1: between Memphis another reason I like Florida Atlantic. Between Memphis 632 00:34:16,840 --> 00:34:20,439 Speaker 1: and Florida Atlantic, Florida Atlantic themselves are the slower paced team, 633 00:34:20,760 --> 00:34:23,280 Speaker 1: so we'd really keep the possessions down here at about 634 00:34:23,320 --> 00:34:26,680 Speaker 1: sixty five and a half possessions versus a sixty seven 635 00:34:26,719 --> 00:34:31,480 Speaker 1: and a half almost national average between Purdue and Florida Atlantic. 636 00:34:32,800 --> 00:34:36,759 Speaker 1: Then onto the Sweet sixteen. If things go according to 637 00:34:36,760 --> 00:34:40,320 Speaker 1: the plan, you know, Florida Atlantic would get either Duke 638 00:34:40,800 --> 00:34:43,839 Speaker 1: or Tennessee. Tennessee the four seed and Duke the five seed, 639 00:34:43,840 --> 00:34:45,960 Speaker 1: and I do have Tennessee is a very strong four seed, 640 00:34:46,000 --> 00:34:49,600 Speaker 1: but the problem is Tennessee is suffering a little bit 641 00:34:49,640 --> 00:34:53,880 Speaker 1: of injury issue here. Zechai Ziegler is out, and he 642 00:34:54,600 --> 00:34:59,000 Speaker 1: is the guy that you know, has has contributed so 643 00:34:59,200 --> 00:35:01,480 Speaker 1: much to this team, one of their best players, so 644 00:35:02,320 --> 00:35:04,440 Speaker 1: you have to knock them down for that for sure. 645 00:35:05,120 --> 00:35:09,720 Speaker 1: And then you know, obviously Duke. They're they're barely favored 646 00:35:09,760 --> 00:35:13,360 Speaker 1: over Florida Atlantic in my power ratings, but because of 647 00:35:13,400 --> 00:35:16,880 Speaker 1: all the just the national love for Duke, we actually 648 00:35:16,880 --> 00:35:19,879 Speaker 1: get Florida Atlantic probably at a decent plus money price here. 649 00:35:19,960 --> 00:35:22,480 Speaker 1: So I think this is a good spot to just 650 00:35:22,680 --> 00:35:25,520 Speaker 1: take Florida Atlantic. I think this is you know, of 651 00:35:25,560 --> 00:35:27,520 Speaker 1: all of these, I think this is one that is 652 00:35:27,640 --> 00:35:30,560 Speaker 1: arguably the most questionable, but it also I think has 653 00:35:30,600 --> 00:35:33,440 Speaker 1: a lot of most value. So I think this is 654 00:35:33,480 --> 00:35:35,799 Speaker 1: a good spot to take Florida Atlantic. Certainly, don't mind 655 00:35:35,800 --> 00:35:37,920 Speaker 1: if you take Memphis. I don't even mind if you 656 00:35:37,960 --> 00:35:39,680 Speaker 1: take Duke, as long as you take them spread in 657 00:35:39,680 --> 00:35:42,000 Speaker 1: the first round and then money line them if they 658 00:35:42,000 --> 00:35:45,520 Speaker 1: played Tennessee. But I do think with Tennessee's injury concerns, 659 00:35:45,560 --> 00:35:48,120 Speaker 1: there's a chance Duke plays Oral Roberts then plays Louisiana, 660 00:35:48,320 --> 00:35:51,840 Speaker 1: and I don't love that spot because it wouldn't necessarily 661 00:35:51,880 --> 00:35:53,520 Speaker 1: we'd have to have Duke cover the spread then in 662 00:35:53,600 --> 00:35:56,200 Speaker 1: the Louisiana game as well, so I don't want to 663 00:35:56,239 --> 00:35:58,320 Speaker 1: do that. I'd rather just do the money line system. 664 00:35:58,320 --> 00:36:00,440 Speaker 1: Give us a much higher upside here in terms of 665 00:36:00,480 --> 00:36:02,960 Speaker 1: our total units one in terms of our total dollars one, 666 00:36:03,280 --> 00:36:06,960 Speaker 1: and roll with Florida Atlantic. All right, onto my seventh pick. 667 00:36:07,200 --> 00:36:09,359 Speaker 1: I'm gonna take Providence. We're going to the bottom half. Now, 668 00:36:09,400 --> 00:36:11,279 Speaker 1: this is the double up spot. We're gonna pick two 669 00:36:11,320 --> 00:36:14,080 Speaker 1: teams from this bottom half of the East region and 670 00:36:14,239 --> 00:36:17,080 Speaker 1: take Providence as the eleven seed. I have them as 671 00:36:17,120 --> 00:36:19,800 Speaker 1: the best overall eleventh seed. They really should be a 672 00:36:19,880 --> 00:36:23,320 Speaker 1: ten seed, and while they do have a tough matchup 673 00:36:23,360 --> 00:36:26,200 Speaker 1: in the first round against Kentucky, I've got this line 674 00:36:26,280 --> 00:36:28,919 Speaker 1: at two and a half tops instead of the four 675 00:36:29,000 --> 00:36:33,359 Speaker 1: that you can currently get you, So Kentucky really should 676 00:36:33,400 --> 00:36:34,680 Speaker 1: only be a two and a half point favorite, not 677 00:36:34,760 --> 00:36:37,560 Speaker 1: a four point favorite. That means same is gonna apply 678 00:36:37,600 --> 00:36:39,359 Speaker 1: to the money line. We're gonna get better plus odds 679 00:36:39,360 --> 00:36:42,720 Speaker 1: and Providence than they probably should be, So Providence in Kentucky. 680 00:36:42,760 --> 00:36:45,080 Speaker 1: They also both play at slower paces, which will help 681 00:36:45,160 --> 00:36:48,840 Speaker 1: keep the overall possessions down, reducing the opportunity for Kentucky 682 00:36:49,040 --> 00:36:52,480 Speaker 1: to assert their efficiency advantage. And this really reminds me 683 00:36:52,600 --> 00:36:57,640 Speaker 1: of Vanderbilt versus Kentucky. Vanderbilt one, both of their matchups 684 00:36:57,719 --> 00:37:01,720 Speaker 1: versus Kentucky this year, very similar pieces of play between 685 00:37:01,760 --> 00:37:06,600 Speaker 1: Vandy and Providence. Very similar offensive and defensive efficiencies between 686 00:37:06,719 --> 00:37:09,680 Speaker 1: Vandy and Providence. So I think this is a situation 687 00:37:09,800 --> 00:37:13,279 Speaker 1: where Providence, you know, could surprise Kentucky a little bit. 688 00:37:13,320 --> 00:37:15,800 Speaker 1: Providence a pretty decent three point shooting team as well, 689 00:37:16,120 --> 00:37:18,759 Speaker 1: which helps increase that variance. So I'm gonna roll with 690 00:37:18,800 --> 00:37:21,600 Speaker 1: Providence here, although I do like Kentucky in this system 691 00:37:21,680 --> 00:37:25,640 Speaker 1: as well. You could take them to to money line 692 00:37:25,800 --> 00:37:28,799 Speaker 1: or cover the spread versus Providence. Pick your poison there, 693 00:37:28,920 --> 00:37:31,920 Speaker 1: because that three seed matchup in the second round is 694 00:37:32,000 --> 00:37:35,680 Speaker 1: really good versus Kansas State. Should it be Kansas State? Now, 695 00:37:35,960 --> 00:37:38,760 Speaker 1: if it's not Kansas State, it's going to be Montana State. 696 00:37:38,840 --> 00:37:41,239 Speaker 1: And that's fine because Providence isn't going to be a 697 00:37:41,280 --> 00:37:44,880 Speaker 1: monstrous favorite versus Montana State. They'll be a favorite. But 698 00:37:44,920 --> 00:37:47,480 Speaker 1: I think it's an opportunity where we potentially just take 699 00:37:47,520 --> 00:37:51,239 Speaker 1: Providence on to cover the spread. There could potentially still 700 00:37:51,239 --> 00:37:56,240 Speaker 1: money line them, depending on what's happening with Marquette, for example, 701 00:37:56,239 --> 00:37:59,399 Speaker 1: if Marquette is still alive, we could moneyline Providence even 702 00:37:59,480 --> 00:38:02,680 Speaker 1: versus money Hannah State. But we'll play it out. We'll 703 00:38:02,719 --> 00:38:05,120 Speaker 1: see how it goes. But Kansas State by far the 704 00:38:05,160 --> 00:38:09,080 Speaker 1: worst three seed. So if Providence does face Kansas State, 705 00:38:09,800 --> 00:38:11,720 Speaker 1: you know, I think this is a really good situation. 706 00:38:11,800 --> 00:38:14,479 Speaker 1: Kansas State is a borderline five or six seed per 707 00:38:14,600 --> 00:38:18,400 Speaker 1: my Power ratings, so you know, we're getting what is 708 00:38:18,440 --> 00:38:21,400 Speaker 1: a decent, you know, borderline five six seed for Kentucky, 709 00:38:21,640 --> 00:38:23,799 Speaker 1: and they were getting a borderline five six seed versus 710 00:38:23,880 --> 00:38:25,640 Speaker 1: Kansas State when they're actually a three seed. So I 711 00:38:25,640 --> 00:38:27,520 Speaker 1: think we're gonna get some nice value there as well 712 00:38:28,120 --> 00:38:31,640 Speaker 1: on Providence money line. Then if they make the Sweet sixteen, 713 00:38:32,040 --> 00:38:34,399 Speaker 1: they would get the worst two seed in Marquette. And 714 00:38:35,600 --> 00:38:37,680 Speaker 1: there's a good chance they don't even have to play Marquette. 715 00:38:37,680 --> 00:38:39,680 Speaker 1: They could play somebody with a better shot to beat, 716 00:38:40,440 --> 00:38:43,839 Speaker 1: like Michigan State or USC, or even maybe Vermont as 717 00:38:43,840 --> 00:38:47,520 Speaker 1: the fifteen seed. So really good situation for Providence should 718 00:38:47,520 --> 00:38:50,760 Speaker 1: they get past Kentucky. So we're gonna money line Providence 719 00:38:50,800 --> 00:38:54,279 Speaker 1: all the way to the Elite eight no matter who 720 00:38:54,360 --> 00:38:57,160 Speaker 1: they play, even if they end up playing Montana State. 721 00:38:57,440 --> 00:38:59,440 Speaker 1: I think we probably were just gonna money line them there. 722 00:38:59,440 --> 00:39:01,800 Speaker 1: I guess the old way we wouldn't is if somehow 723 00:39:01,880 --> 00:39:05,080 Speaker 1: the favorites kind of chalk out here and they face 724 00:39:05,160 --> 00:39:08,319 Speaker 1: Montana State. But even then probably still moneyline them all right. 725 00:39:08,400 --> 00:39:11,640 Speaker 1: On to our final pick for the Gift and Guide 726 00:39:11,680 --> 00:39:14,920 Speaker 1: to March Madness, and again another one I struggled with here. 727 00:39:15,480 --> 00:39:19,520 Speaker 1: I could definitely see Michigan State being the one here, 728 00:39:19,560 --> 00:39:21,879 Speaker 1: but I'm gonna go with USC as the ten seed 729 00:39:21,960 --> 00:39:26,200 Speaker 1: here instead of Michigan State. But I like Providence out 730 00:39:26,200 --> 00:39:28,160 Speaker 1: of Kentucky. I like Michigan State, and I like UNC 731 00:39:28,600 --> 00:39:32,000 Speaker 1: or USC Southern cal here because I think Marquette is 732 00:39:32,040 --> 00:39:34,319 Speaker 1: just so weak in Kansas State is so weak. You 733 00:39:34,320 --> 00:39:37,600 Speaker 1: could pick your favorites from this eighth, this eighth of 734 00:39:37,640 --> 00:39:40,319 Speaker 1: the bracket, and hopefully they end up meeting each other 735 00:39:40,360 --> 00:39:42,560 Speaker 1: in the sweet sixteen, right, So hopefully I'm getting providence 736 00:39:42,600 --> 00:39:44,799 Speaker 1: to meet whoever it is that I pick, and I'm 737 00:39:44,800 --> 00:39:47,960 Speaker 1: picking USC as the ten seed here. I have USC 738 00:39:48,000 --> 00:39:49,719 Speaker 1: as a borderline nine or ten seed, so a very 739 00:39:49,760 --> 00:39:53,239 Speaker 1: good ten seed. And you know they're facing Michigan State 740 00:39:53,280 --> 00:39:55,719 Speaker 1: in this first round. And I do have this as 741 00:39:55,760 --> 00:39:58,239 Speaker 1: a coin flip at a neutral venue. I mean, these 742 00:39:58,239 --> 00:40:01,480 Speaker 1: two teams are so close in my power ratings, you know, 743 00:40:01,560 --> 00:40:04,840 Speaker 1: maybe Michigan by half a point here, but essentially I 744 00:40:04,840 --> 00:40:07,280 Speaker 1: have them as a coin flip and a neutral site. Now, 745 00:40:07,640 --> 00:40:09,840 Speaker 1: this is kind of a semi home game for Michigan 746 00:40:09,880 --> 00:40:13,000 Speaker 1: State as it will be in Columbus, Ohio, and USC 747 00:40:13,080 --> 00:40:15,600 Speaker 1: is going to chap to travel all the way to Columbus. 748 00:40:15,640 --> 00:40:18,080 Speaker 1: But it just makes it a semi home which isn't 749 00:40:18,200 --> 00:40:22,040 Speaker 1: enough to make Michigan State kind of a home court advantage. 750 00:40:22,080 --> 00:40:24,440 Speaker 1: Plus it's not their home court, so there's just some 751 00:40:24,480 --> 00:40:26,279 Speaker 1: things you kind of have to get used to of 752 00:40:26,480 --> 00:40:28,960 Speaker 1: being a different court, being away from home, so it's 753 00:40:29,000 --> 00:40:31,080 Speaker 1: just semi home. So I don't have that has quite 754 00:40:31,160 --> 00:40:33,680 Speaker 1: enough an advantage to get Michigan State to a two 755 00:40:33,680 --> 00:40:36,400 Speaker 1: point favorite. So there is a little bit of value 756 00:40:36,440 --> 00:40:39,759 Speaker 1: on USC on the money line here should they get 757 00:40:39,760 --> 00:40:44,080 Speaker 1: past Michigan State. Again, really like them facing Marquette worst 758 00:40:44,120 --> 00:40:47,160 Speaker 1: two seed and also a chance, you know, Marquette loses 759 00:40:47,200 --> 00:40:49,480 Speaker 1: to Vermont. But even then I have Marquette as the 760 00:40:49,480 --> 00:40:52,719 Speaker 1: worst two seeds, so we can take USC money line there, 761 00:40:53,239 --> 00:40:57,080 Speaker 1: and then again they'd face Kentucky Providence or Kansas State, 762 00:40:57,640 --> 00:41:00,000 Speaker 1: and I think all of those are totally fine opportunities 763 00:41:00,080 --> 00:41:03,840 Speaker 1: for USC. They'd be at worst a coin flip to 764 00:41:04,040 --> 00:41:06,799 Speaker 1: some of these teams and definitely a plus money line 765 00:41:06,840 --> 00:41:09,440 Speaker 1: dog here. So we're just gonna moneyline them all the 766 00:41:09,480 --> 00:41:12,759 Speaker 1: way to the Elite eight, unless, of course, they face Providence. 767 00:41:12,800 --> 00:41:15,840 Speaker 1: So we're picking some underdogs. We got some Cinderellas stories 768 00:41:15,880 --> 00:41:18,399 Speaker 1: to root for. We're gonna limit our losses to two 769 00:41:18,600 --> 00:41:21,960 Speaker 1: units with the potential for some great upsides. So depending 770 00:41:21,960 --> 00:41:26,080 Speaker 1: on how this weekend goes, we'll probably be back next 771 00:41:26,120 --> 00:41:28,520 Speaker 1: week to update you on how the system has performed 772 00:41:28,560 --> 00:41:30,600 Speaker 1: so far, and to give a little bit of advice 773 00:41:30,640 --> 00:41:33,239 Speaker 1: on how to roll the system forward through to the 774 00:41:33,239 --> 00:41:36,600 Speaker 1: Elite eight. Thanks for listening to the Action Network podcast 775 00:41:36,719 --> 00:41:39,040 Speaker 1: presented by Fandel. This has been the gift and guide 776 00:41:39,320 --> 00:41:48,960 Speaker 1: March Madness. Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If 777 00:41:49,000 --> 00:41:51,600 Speaker 1: you or someone you care about has a gambling problem, 778 00:41:51,880 --> 00:41:54,520 Speaker 1: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight 779 00:41:54,560 --> 00:41:55,400 Speaker 1: hundred Gambler