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Speaker 1: All right, here we go fifteen twenty five, thirty thirty five,

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Speaker 1: forty forty five fifty and the.

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Speaker 2: Kicks black the college football world stunners.

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Speaker 1: Oh my goodness, he's.

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Speaker 2: Stumbled and bumble the lateral.

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Speaker 3: Turn the corner on the job.

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Speaker 1: Don't you be lad that I came him up the

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Speaker 1: field the night.

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Speaker 2: It's not the size of the dog in the fight,

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Speaker 2: it's the size of the fight in the dog.

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Speaker 1: What's up the general nation? Welcome to the Big Bets

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Speaker 1: on Campus podcast. This is the Week ten college football

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Speaker 1: betting preview. I'm stuck you with me, as always is

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Speaker 1: Colin Wilson. You've done monkeying around over there, monk.

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Speaker 4: In around looking for some chair retreat, Candy, this has

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Speaker 4: been such an eventful week already you and I are

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Speaker 4: podcasting on Thursday. It feels like we've already had a

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Speaker 4: full week of games. Because nobody plays defense in the MAC,

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Speaker 4: and I can tell you, like taking an under in

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Speaker 4: this conference is gonna be about impossible, even with Akron,

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Speaker 4: like firing Tom Arth, who's playing defense in this conference?

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Speaker 4: It's amazing. I see the games on schedule for next week,

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Speaker 4: Central Michigan, Kent. What is that gonna be one hundred

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Speaker 4: and five.

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Speaker 2: Points defense Defense Defense.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, Colin fall playoff rankings came out. They were interesting.

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Speaker 1: We'll talk about them maybe throughout and make sure you

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Speaker 1: tune into the Sources podcast episode with Colin and Bret McMurphy.

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Speaker 1: And as always, make sure you tune into the group

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Speaker 1: of five guys. They kill it every week. So much

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Speaker 1: to get to so let's jump right in and as always,

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Speaker 1: we'll start with look Ahead or look.

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Speaker 3: Away, hangovers, sleepers, and the dreaded sandwich spot. Is it

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Speaker 3: time to look ahead or look away?

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Speaker 2: All right?

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Speaker 1: My request people were saying, you know you used to

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Speaker 1: put out your favorite situational spots a piece out there,

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Speaker 1: so I got a couple dims, so I will have

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Speaker 1: that out there this week. Be seven of them, seven

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Speaker 1: of my favorite spots. This is one of them. We'll

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Speaker 1: start with Penn State traveling to Maryland Cdcason football.

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Speaker 2: That's what Maryland does.

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Speaker 1: Three thirty Eastern kickoff. Penn State is a ten point

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Speaker 1: favorite over under fifty five and a half. So MYNUS

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Speaker 1: thoughts on this awful spot for Penn State. I gotta

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Speaker 1: give them credit. They show up last week, they get

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Speaker 1: off off the mat After that Illinois nine ever time

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Speaker 1: lost their coach didn't eve know who they were playing

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Speaker 1: that week, but they got off with them. They put

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Speaker 1: up a fight against Ohio State, they lose, They dropped

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Speaker 1: the five to three. Now they travel to college for

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Speaker 1: their second straight road game against a five to three

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Speaker 1: Maryland team with Michigan, and they have Michigan on deck.

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Speaker 1: It's just hard for me to envision Penn State, which

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Speaker 1: had so many bigger hopes for the season, being motivated

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Speaker 1: for this game. There's a huge chance they come out flat,

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Speaker 1: just like we saw last year. Last year, Penn State

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Speaker 1: lost to Ohio State to drop to zero to two,

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Speaker 1: pretty much entered their college fall playoff hopes. The next week,

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Speaker 1: they played Maryland, this time at home. They're down thirty

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Speaker 1: five to seven in the third quarter, came out completely flat.

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Speaker 1: So I think this number is too high and tattoo high,

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Speaker 1: just on the surface. I hate backing Maryland home. But

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Speaker 1: here we go again, this spot throwing the spot. I'm

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Speaker 1: back in the turps plus ten. You know, they lost

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Speaker 1: de missive receiver, but I'm a little less worried about

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Speaker 1: their receiver situation based on what I've seen in the

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Speaker 1: past couple weeks and Tealo has looked fantastic for most

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Speaker 1: of this season. Outside of that Iowa game, Penn State's

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Speaker 1: offense still has issues that can't run the ball. The

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Speaker 1: offensive line is bad. Clifford, I'm sure we'll move the

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Speaker 1: ball here, but there's a state comes out really flat

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Speaker 1: and I think Maryland kids score enough to wouldn't shock

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Speaker 1: me if they were a positioned to pull off this

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Speaker 1: out right, So give me the terps. Do you agree here?

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Speaker 2: Yeah?

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Speaker 4: I absolutely agree, and I think you know you and

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Speaker 4: I have talked about this before. You are a reflection

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Speaker 4: of your head coach, and when you have someone like

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Speaker 4: James Franklin, the losses can pile up pretty fast. Look

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Speaker 4: at the streaks they were on last year. What lost

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Speaker 4: five straight?

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Speaker 2: One? Four straight?

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Speaker 4: And you know so, I mean when we break down

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Speaker 4: the number, it's something I project eight and a half.

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Speaker 4: So there is value on the Maryland number as we

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Speaker 4: record a ten a total of fifty two, A little

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Speaker 4: bit of value on some under here. And as a

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Speaker 4: person that has like over five and a half as

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Speaker 4: one of my biggest preseason bets on Maryland's win total,

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Speaker 4: I'd love an upset here before the Michigan game, and

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Speaker 4: then I'm eventually probably gonna have to have a buyout

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Speaker 4: spot against Rutgers on that Terps win total over. But

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Speaker 4: you know, four straight games against the spread losses from

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Speaker 4: Maryland they won, but they didn't cover. Against Indiana, they

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Speaker 4: they lost three scored. Yeah, they lost three straight before that.

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Speaker 4: I think what people need to realize that losing streak

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Speaker 4: included a net minus ten and turnover seven of them

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Speaker 4: to Iowa. Of course, they're great in gaining five hundred

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Speaker 4: yards against Indiana, but they're bad in letting the Hoosiers

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Speaker 4: offense put up four hundred and fifty yards, which is

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Speaker 4: like a theme every week. Penn State rush just for

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Speaker 4: thirty three yards against Ohio State.

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Speaker 2: They're in that game. They I mean, they've completely.

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Speaker 4: Given up on running one hundred and twenty second rushing success. Right,

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Speaker 4: But let's go to coach Franklin who's quickly on his

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Speaker 4: way to USC James Franklin and the presser this week,

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Speaker 4: our RPO game will become more explosive when people respect

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Speaker 4: the run. This week, we're going to make people respect

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Speaker 4: the run. That's pretty interesting on those comments considering the

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Speaker 4: total keeps going up, right, I mean, if you're committed

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Speaker 4: to running the ball, I don't know why that total

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Speaker 4: keeps going up. So Maryland's outside the top one hundred

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Speaker 4: and coverage, they're outside the top ninety against the explosive pass.

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Speaker 4: But Clifford, this is something I didn't realize either. Clifford's

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Speaker 4: forty two yard pass against Illinois. He had one pass

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Speaker 4: for forty two yards. That's the longest game from scrimmage

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Speaker 4: over the last three games. I can't they have no explosiveness,

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Speaker 4: so the pass game is getting dunk. Yeah, I'm looking at.

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Speaker 1: The under here.

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Speaker 4: I'm with you on Maryland. Penn State's defense limited the

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Speaker 4: Buckeyes a three hundred and five passing yards. So Maryland,

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Speaker 4: it's not like Maryland is gonna line up and run

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Speaker 4: the ball or you know, get it down the field fast.

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Speaker 4: But can the Nindian Lions maintain this level of defense?

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Speaker 4: I mean, I mean, look at this. They've been the

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Speaker 4: MVP against Indiana, three point win against Iowa head and

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Speaker 4: endo the by nine over times against Illinois then Ohio State.

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Speaker 4: I mean, they're the MVP every single game. Can you

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Speaker 4: keep up this level play? I'm with you on Maryland.

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Speaker 4: I'm looking at the under two.

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Speaker 1: Moving on to our second spot here, let's look at

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Speaker 1: Let's move to the Big twelve and take a look

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Speaker 1: at Baylor, who is a seven point favorite traveling to TCU.

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Speaker 1: Baylor last week come back win over Texas. Again, they

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Speaker 1: try to believe twenty one to ten in the second half.

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Speaker 1: Next week they have Oklahoma in a massive game with

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Speaker 1: Big twelve title implications. Natural Man called FOOTBA playoff implications

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Speaker 1: as well. Talk about a sandwich sandwiches, sandwiches, sandwiches, sandwiches

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Speaker 1: come back to beat Texas. You have Oklahoma on deck.

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Speaker 1: Now you have you know, three and five TCU. TCU

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Speaker 1: obviously been one of the most disappointing teams in the country.

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Speaker 1: As a result, you know, they fire Gary Patterson, they

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Speaker 1: move on from him. The question is is this line

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Speaker 1: too high? Does the team rally here? I'm gonna lean

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Speaker 1: on yes. Now, if they lose this game and get

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Speaker 1: blown out there, they're dead team. I will not touch them.

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Speaker 1: I would only fade them. But this is you know,

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Speaker 1: you saw have a chance to go ball. You got

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Speaker 1: pretty much gonna win this game. Everything's been disappointing this year.

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Speaker 1: Now you have a new regime and and you're playing

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Speaker 1: your in state rival at home, and they're a top

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Speaker 1: twenty team you can ruin their season. It's hard not

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Speaker 1: to get up for that. So I expect TCU to

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Speaker 1: get up for this. We don't know who's going to

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Speaker 1: be a quarterback. We don't know if Zach Evans's play,

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Speaker 1: but the running back room is loaded. The defense has

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Speaker 1: been so poor that it's just hard for me to

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Speaker 1: envision that they're not gonna be any better. If I

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Speaker 1: don't use any priors for TCU, who has always been

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Speaker 1: a really good eend. They have a ton of talent

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Speaker 1: of NFL players on this defense. I would not even

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Speaker 1: touch TCU with a ten football, but I expect this

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Speaker 1: defense to lead. Look if they're getting up six point

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Speaker 1: nine yards per play, that's there's only eight teams in

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Speaker 1: the country that are allowing six point nine yards or more.

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Speaker 1: But I expect some improvement on the TCU defensive side.

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Speaker 1: It's a really bad spot for Baylor. I need the seven,

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Speaker 1: and there's a seven out there would not go any lower.

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Speaker 1: I'm hesitantly gonna buy low on TCU and play this

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Speaker 1: spot with a new staff too. And Gary Patterson was

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Speaker 1: in the building this week, like helping them prepare. But

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Speaker 1: the new staff also look, you can out a couple

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Speaker 1: of new wrinkles, a couple of new looks that failers

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Speaker 1: are prepared for. That element of surprise could work in

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Speaker 1: their favor. So I do think the line has a

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Speaker 1: bit inflated. If I'm assuming that TC is eventually gonna

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Speaker 1: do dun, it's gonna get a little better. Not fair.

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Speaker 1: The healthiest defense has been all year, but even still

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Speaker 1: with a plethora of key injuries, give me the horn

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Speaker 1: frogs here. It's scary, but I think that's the side.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, I agree, Baylor minus three is a

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Speaker 4: projection total of fifty eight, so that I'm not going

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Speaker 4: to pay attention to the overall total of the game

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Speaker 4: because the steam on this is just wailed on the five.

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Speaker 4: It's got it up to seven at some shops and stuck.

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Speaker 4: I'm in the same boat as you are. When's it

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Speaker 4: gonna stop steaming?

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Speaker 1: Right?

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Speaker 4: Because every time it's gone from six and a half

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Speaker 4: to seven, it gets whacked with sharp money, comes back

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Speaker 4: down to six and a half, and then we're back

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Speaker 4: at seven again. So are we going to get above

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Speaker 4: a touchdown here? And of course the elephant in the

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Speaker 4: room is the firing of Gary Patterson. You're right, he

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Speaker 4: showed up to the offices, he went over the Baylor

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Speaker 4: game planned with his assistants.

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Speaker 2: The TCUA D.

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Speaker 4: Jremiah de Notati said that he showed great class and

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Speaker 4: that's just always been the case with Patterson. So the

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Speaker 4: question is do the players, specifically the defense, do they

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Speaker 4: play their best game of the season under interim Jerry Kill?

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Speaker 4: Which please stay in good health, Jerry Kill. There's been

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Speaker 4: social media activity this week that's important, Gary Patterson encouraging

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Speaker 4: Zach Evans about you know who he is as a person.

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Speaker 4: Patterson's wife calling on the players to stick together and

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Speaker 4: fight on for TCU. There's a lot of support for

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Speaker 4: Gary Patterson on social media through the TCU players. But

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Speaker 4: their bottom ten and everything in defensive statistically, it's really

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Speaker 4: tough to say, well, now they flip a switch and

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Speaker 4: all of a sudden they could play some defense. Because

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Speaker 4: they allowed Kansas State to triple the national average in

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Speaker 4: explosive plays. They allowed West Virginia's offense to be explosive

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Speaker 4: and gain twenty percent more in national average and available yards.

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Speaker 4: I mean getting West Virginia to look that way, you know,

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Speaker 4: there's nothing in the numbers. It suggests to me the

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Speaker 4: Baylor and quarterback Jerry Bihannon and you know running back

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Speaker 4: Abram Smith are.

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Speaker 2: Not going to just run wild here.

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Speaker 4: So the question is will TCU be able to keep up?

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Speaker 4: I think the only thing that I can lock down

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Speaker 4: that I am playing on this game is that Baylor

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Speaker 4: is twelve in the College Football Playoff rankings. They may

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Speaker 4: be looking for style points. Baylor has scored at least

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Speaker 4: thirty one points in every single win this year. Their

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Speaker 4: team total is thirty two in this game, so I'm

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Speaker 4: going to bank the TCU doesn't have much improvement on defense.

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Speaker 4: I don't know if they can keep up on offense.

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Speaker 4: But I am playing Baylor over thirty two team total points.

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Speaker 1: I will be the one in fear with a TCU ticket.

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Speaker 2: Wait, you've got to wait and see if that seven

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Speaker 2: and a half comes right.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean it's I'm I'm taking seven, and if

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Speaker 1: I can get seven and a half, I'll take a

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Speaker 1: little bit more. All right, Let's move on to another

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Speaker 1: spot here, another one that I'm betting. It's one of

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Speaker 1: my favorite cards of the year, so we'll see how

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Speaker 1: that works out. Ole Miss hosting Liberty in the Hugh

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Speaker 1: Freeze Bowl.

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Speaker 2: You don't cuss, you don't drink, so what are your vices?

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Speaker 1: I have been known to chew a bit of tobacco

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Speaker 1: when I get a little tired or watching field. Ole Miss,

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Speaker 1: depending on the book, nine and a half ten point

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Speaker 1: favorite over Liberty. This to me is a horrible spot

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Speaker 1: for ole Miss for multiple reasons. We faded them last

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Speaker 1: week with Auburn bow next season in full effect because

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Speaker 1: of their grueling October. Right, they had they go Alabama

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Speaker 1: to start it, you know, on the road, and then

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Speaker 1: LSU and then Tennessee in Arkansas, and then a five

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Speaker 1: sec games in five weekends, home away, home away, home

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Speaker 1: away in the month of October. Well, there's still no break.

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Speaker 1: They come home after getting beat up in that Auburn

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Speaker 1: game and play Liberty this Saturday. Liberty meanwhile, it was

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Speaker 1: put off of a win against U. Mass. They basically

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Speaker 1: had a bye week from an injury and freshness perspective.

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Speaker 1: Huge edges for Liberty and their quarterback. By the way,

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Speaker 1: this is a matchup of two quarterbacks who could be

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Speaker 1: the first two quarterbacks taking the NFL draft. Malique Wills,

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Speaker 1: a couple of weeks ago was dealing with an injury.

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Speaker 1: He's now healthy. Had a couple of bad games with

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Speaker 1: some picks, but he's been much clearer with the ball

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Speaker 1: in the past few games and looks healthier. One of

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Speaker 1: the most dynamic running quarterbacks in the country as well.

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Speaker 1: So look, Liberty should be able to do. The ball

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Speaker 1: gets all Miss. It's a poverty defense. We know that.

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Speaker 1: And on the other side of the ball, this Ole

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Speaker 1: Miss offense, which look Lane Kiffin with Matt corral and

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Speaker 1: these weapons, one of the best offenses in the country.

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Speaker 1: The problem is it's a crippled Matt Corrale. Their top

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Speaker 1: three receivers could be out there, starting tight end might

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Speaker 1: be out, and both of their top guards are out.

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Speaker 1: So I mean last week they're throwing a walk on

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Speaker 1: tight end and a walk on wide receiver. This is

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Speaker 1: not the same Ole Miss offense that you remember from

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Speaker 1: earlier in the year. On top of that, Link Kevin

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Speaker 1: came out said midweek, I don't think that you know

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Speaker 1: as of now, all three top receivers wouldn't play and

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Speaker 1: the tight end probably wouldn't play. And it kind of

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Speaker 1: makes sense like you're playing Liberty at home. This is

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Speaker 1: the week you need to rest for the rest of

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Speaker 1: the year, so I think that they'll probably air on

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Speaker 1: the side of caution. Matt Carrel's beat up too, so

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Speaker 1: I think ten. There's too many here with liberty who

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Speaker 1: should score against, especially with a very beat up, undermanned

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Speaker 1: ole miss offense. Give me a flames Liberty, Liberty, Liberty.

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Speaker 2: I love it. I'm with you. I took nine and

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Speaker 2: a half. I'm not worried that there's a ten out there.

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Speaker 2: You know that.

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Speaker 1: I don't know.

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Speaker 4: Maybe I'll buy it again. Begin there's going to be

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Speaker 4: a full preview. I was the one that drew this

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Speaker 4: game for the right up this week. There's going to

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Speaker 4: be a lot of Bible verses out there. So if

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Speaker 4: you're into Hugh Freeze and preaching the Bible, I got

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Speaker 4: some Isaiah in there. I got some fire and brimstone.

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Speaker 4: I got all kinds of good stuff. And if you've

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Speaker 4: ever partied in Memphis before, you.

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Speaker 2: Know what I'm talking about.

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Speaker 4: But listen, you know, this is the biggest game I

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Speaker 4: feel like of Hugh Freeze's life. And that's saying something

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Speaker 4: for a guy that's beaten Alabama twice, right, a guy

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Speaker 4: that's been to a sugar Bowl.

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Speaker 2: I mean Freeze's disgraceful exit from Ole Miss.

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Speaker 4: If you don't know, in case you've been living under

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Speaker 4: a rock, Houston Nutt filed a defamation smear lawsuit against

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Speaker 4: Old Miss, and Hugh Freese felt like, you know, Houston

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Speaker 4: Nutt did not enjoy the way that he his departure

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Speaker 4: was from Old Miss blamed Hugh Freeze and you know,

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Speaker 4: people at Old Miss for the way that he was

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Speaker 4: being profiled, and that turned up Freeze's school. Old Miss

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Speaker 4: supplied cell phone which you know, provided phone records that

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Speaker 4: was filled with things that most souls would burn on

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Speaker 4: a cross for Funny enough, now Freeze is the coach

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Speaker 4: of the Liberty Flames.

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Speaker 5: My father's vision for Liberty University was to found a

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Speaker 5: world class Christian university that would be for evangelical young

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Speaker 5: people what Notre Dame is for Catholic young people and

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Speaker 5: what Brigham Young is for Mormon young people.

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Speaker 2: So Liberty is like having major issues in havoc. Allowed.

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Speaker 4: We've talked about this before, like how did ULM win

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Speaker 4: this game? And there's a big drop off an offensive

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Speaker 4: line play. It's trickled down to Malik Willis's productivity. He

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Speaker 4: had six I and t's and back to back weeks

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Speaker 4: against Middle Tennessee against ULM. And the issue in this

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Speaker 4: game is is Ole Miss has no pass rush. The

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Speaker 4: Old Miss defense has been bad and success rate, but

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Speaker 4: they're worse when their opponents get into scoring position. Thirty

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Speaker 4: one red zone attempts against this Ole Miss defense, twenty

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Speaker 4: six touchdowns allowed. That's crazy, no field goals all six points.

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Speaker 4: So what's the status of Matt Crown the ankle you

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Speaker 4: mentioned it. I feel like this is going to be

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Speaker 4: a big Jerry and Eale Snoop Connor exclusively on the ground.

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Speaker 4: Luke Altmeier be in there a quarterback. Liberty's been excellent

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Speaker 4: against the pass, the thirty third in coverage and their

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Speaker 4: seventh in defensive passing success rate. So this isn't e

336
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Speaker 4: Connor game, which means it shouldn't be as high scoring

337
00:16:03,280 --> 00:16:05,080
Speaker 4: and as up tempo as you would think. I took

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Speaker 4: Liberty nine and a half. I play it down to seven.

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Speaker 4: Rebels have Texas A and M next week. They have

340
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Speaker 4: egg Bowl in three weeks. They need people healthy. This

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Speaker 4: game means everything to Freeze. It doesn't mean shit to

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Speaker 4: Old Miss. It doesn't mean anything to Lane Kiffin and

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Speaker 4: Lane Kiffin talked about Freeze. He's like, listen, my brother

344
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Speaker 4: worked for Hugh Freeze at ole Miss. Kiffin's words were,

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Speaker 4: this may be the best game day coach out there.

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Speaker 4: From a pepper preparation standpoint, I'm I am impressed with

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Speaker 4: Hugh Freeze and how.

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Speaker 2: He gets his players to play.

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Speaker 4: That's enough for me. I'm taking Liberty. I'd play it

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Speaker 4: down to seven.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I would. I would lean under here too, ole Miss.

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Speaker 1: I'm totals are always unders, are always scary. But I

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Speaker 1: do agree that ole Miss is probably gonna go heavy

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Speaker 1: dose to run here, and their offense is being priced

355
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Speaker 1: to the market as if it's close to full strike.

356
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Speaker 1: That it's nowhere close, right, But I agree, great spot

357
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Speaker 1: for Liberty. All right, moving on here to our final

358
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Speaker 1: game and look at lookway another game I will be

359
00:16:56,800 --> 00:17:01,920
Speaker 1: playing NC State traveling down to Florida State. NC State

360
00:17:02,040 --> 00:17:05,760
Speaker 1: is a two and a half point favorite here. All

361
00:17:05,760 --> 00:17:08,880
Speaker 1: they have to do is beat three and five Florida

362
00:17:08,920 --> 00:17:12,280
Speaker 1: State and they will set up a showdown next week

363
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Speaker 1: for the ACC Atlantic Division wake Forest, where the winner

364
00:17:16,000 --> 00:17:20,399
Speaker 1: will likely win the ACC Atlantic. Even if wake Forest loses,

365
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Speaker 1: that game will put the winner will be in first place.

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Speaker 1: Well it's easy, right, Well not so fast. I actually

367
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Speaker 1: like Florida State. Here a lot digging into their numbers.

368
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Speaker 1: People remember Florida State for losing to Jacksonville State getting

369
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Speaker 1: trucked by wake Forest. Well, who is the quarterback in

370
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Speaker 1: those games, McKenzie Milton. You look at his numbers. Miserable, miserable.

371
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Speaker 1: They're all in three and Milton starts. They averaged eighteen

372
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Speaker 1: points per game. Here's what they played Louisville, Jacksonville State,

373
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Speaker 1: and wake Forest. Not a murderer's row of defenses. The

374
00:17:53,440 --> 00:17:57,960
Speaker 1: average eighteen points per game. Jordan Travis' five starts, Remember

375
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Speaker 1: he started that opening game against Notre Dame where the

376
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Speaker 1: almost one in overtime, three and two. There are two

377
00:18:02,680 --> 00:18:06,560
Speaker 1: losses against Notre Dame and overtime against Clempson last week

378
00:18:06,560 --> 00:18:08,679
Speaker 1: and again elet in the fourth quarter. They're averaging thirty

379
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Speaker 1: seven points per game in those five games, more than

380
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Speaker 1: double what they averaged with Milton. So you look at

381
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Speaker 1: the you strip out the McKenzie milton possessions, This offense

382
00:18:18,680 --> 00:18:21,280
Speaker 1: profiles really well, and I don't think the market is

383
00:18:21,280 --> 00:18:24,040
Speaker 1: adjusting for that. The young pieces on the Flarida State

384
00:18:24,119 --> 00:18:26,679
Speaker 1: defense are also improving. Just look at what they did

385
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Speaker 1: in the month of October. It was a really impressive

386
00:18:28,400 --> 00:18:31,280
Speaker 1: month for Florida State team I think is trending up.

387
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Speaker 1: I think they'll get up for this game. Fucked Florida

388
00:18:34,240 --> 00:18:36,720
Speaker 1: State getting to a ball I think is important this year.

389
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Speaker 1: Need this game. Sitting at three and five also can

390
00:18:40,320 --> 00:18:45,320
Speaker 1: ruin NC State season. NC State been't decimated by injuries

391
00:18:45,359 --> 00:18:47,840
Speaker 1: as well. They lost their starting their star guard and

392
00:18:47,880 --> 00:18:50,879
Speaker 1: they now lost four starters on the defensive end, the

393
00:18:51,000 --> 00:18:54,560
Speaker 1: latest being Isaiah Moore, their captain and star linebacker. They

394
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Speaker 1: already lost Peyton Wilson with their star linebacker earlier in

395
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Speaker 1: the year, so this defense is just not the same.

396
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Speaker 1: And yes, they went on the road and got a

397
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Speaker 1: win over LIEUI of them. Final score looks lops I

398
00:19:05,480 --> 00:19:07,359
Speaker 1: think trailed on that fourth quarter, they were out gained,

399
00:19:07,359 --> 00:19:10,280
Speaker 1: They give up a ton of yards. I think that Look,

400
00:19:10,280 --> 00:19:11,760
Speaker 1: this is the same NC State team that went down

401
00:19:11,800 --> 00:19:14,600
Speaker 1: to Miami and lost a couple of weeks ago. Awful

402
00:19:14,640 --> 00:19:16,720
Speaker 1: spot for them. I think Florida State is not being

403
00:19:16,760 --> 00:19:19,199
Speaker 1: respected enough in the market for what they've done. What

404
00:19:19,280 --> 00:19:21,080
Speaker 1: has NC State really done this year? I mean they

405
00:19:21,080 --> 00:19:24,919
Speaker 1: wont at BC they beat Clempson in overtimes. I'm not

406
00:19:25,080 --> 00:19:27,879
Speaker 1: as impressed with NC State. Devin Learry's playing well, but

407
00:19:28,600 --> 00:19:31,200
Speaker 1: I think Florida State gets up for this game, catches

408
00:19:31,800 --> 00:19:34,880
Speaker 1: NC State looking ahead a little bit, and Jordan Travis

409
00:19:34,880 --> 00:19:37,879
Speaker 1: and this offense keep it rolling here. So I like

410
00:19:37,880 --> 00:19:42,120
Speaker 1: Florida State. I'm waiting for the three minus one if

411
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Speaker 1: I can get it, but I'll I'll play them if

412
00:19:44,160 --> 00:19:45,520
Speaker 1: not with the oles.

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Speaker 4: No, I agree with you on the market is screaming

414
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Speaker 4: Florida State. You know, I projected INC State minus six

415
00:19:53,280 --> 00:19:55,200
Speaker 4: total of fifty four and a half. N C State

416
00:19:55,240 --> 00:19:58,880
Speaker 4: can take control. You know, there's an overlooked a Wake here.

417
00:19:59,000 --> 00:20:01,520
Speaker 4: But what's interesting is that Wake UNC game that happens

418
00:20:01,520 --> 00:20:03,920
Speaker 4: earlier in the day, the early kickoff.

419
00:20:03,960 --> 00:20:06,120
Speaker 2: It's not a conference game, so even.

420
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Speaker 4: If Wake loses that game, it has no bearing on

421
00:20:09,359 --> 00:20:12,440
Speaker 4: the fact of this game, which means NC State has

422
00:20:12,560 --> 00:20:14,560
Speaker 4: to win this game, right or else they have a

423
00:20:14,600 --> 00:20:19,800
Speaker 4: two loss gap between them and Wake. So you know,

424
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Speaker 4: it's really interesting that that Wake UNC game is not

425
00:20:21,920 --> 00:20:23,879
Speaker 4: a conference game. You guys can go read about that.

426
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Speaker 4: But you know, give credit to the NC State offensive

427
00:20:26,240 --> 00:20:29,000
Speaker 4: line there. They're fifth and havoc allowed. Devin Leary is

428
00:20:29,160 --> 00:20:32,479
Speaker 4: running a horizontal RPO outside zone that sets up vertical

429
00:20:32,480 --> 00:20:36,720
Speaker 4: shots downfield to Devin Carter and Mecha Mzy And you know,

430
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Speaker 4: FSCU is fifth and defensive tackling. They have been fantastic

431
00:20:40,359 --> 00:20:43,040
Speaker 4: at tackling in space. I was a little shocked to

432
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Speaker 4: see that this Florida State team is fielding. They have

433
00:20:46,680 --> 00:20:50,320
Speaker 4: no problems tackling anybody one on one and this this

434
00:20:50,440 --> 00:20:54,200
Speaker 4: may come to Larry throwing against the FSU secondary seminals

435
00:20:54,200 --> 00:20:56,840
Speaker 4: are fifty eighth in coverage. But the Florida State offense

436
00:20:56,880 --> 00:20:59,520
Speaker 4: has been all explosive run. Not a lot of success

437
00:20:59,600 --> 00:21:01,800
Speaker 4: right in the past game one hundred and eleventh and

438
00:21:01,880 --> 00:21:04,119
Speaker 4: havoc allowed forty nine tackles by loss. But if you

439
00:21:04,160 --> 00:21:06,400
Speaker 4: strip out some of that Mackenzie Milton stuff, you're right.

440
00:21:06,600 --> 00:21:08,719
Speaker 4: I mean the twelve fumbles this season by the offense,

441
00:21:08,760 --> 00:21:11,000
Speaker 4: If you strip out some of that, it's actually.

442
00:21:10,840 --> 00:21:11,520
Speaker 2: Been pretty decent.

443
00:21:12,119 --> 00:21:14,760
Speaker 4: The NC State defense is top thirty against the explosive run,

444
00:21:14,920 --> 00:21:17,439
Speaker 4: and their twenty fourth in line yards and their twelfth

445
00:21:17,440 --> 00:21:20,399
Speaker 4: and tackling, which means they can control Florida States running

446
00:21:20,400 --> 00:21:22,919
Speaker 4: backs from breaking the line. Of scrimmage and getting to

447
00:21:22,960 --> 00:21:24,960
Speaker 4: those second level yards preventing the big gain.

448
00:21:25,040 --> 00:21:27,840
Speaker 1: So I agree, but they've also lost two linebackers. They've

449
00:21:27,840 --> 00:21:30,840
Speaker 1: also started defensive tackle now starting safety, so it's not

450
00:21:30,920 --> 00:21:32,320
Speaker 1: the same unit that it's been all year.

451
00:21:32,560 --> 00:21:34,399
Speaker 4: Yeah, I agree with you one undred percent, which is

452
00:21:34,920 --> 00:21:37,600
Speaker 4: which is why I'm backing you with Florida State. I'm

453
00:21:37,640 --> 00:21:40,760
Speaker 4: also looking at the under. I don't see a lot

454
00:21:40,800 --> 00:21:43,359
Speaker 4: of big passes through the air. I don't see tempo

455
00:21:43,400 --> 00:21:46,040
Speaker 4: in these numbers. So you know, I think the under

456
00:21:46,080 --> 00:21:47,400
Speaker 4: and Florida State is the play.

457
00:21:47,880 --> 00:21:50,440
Speaker 1: Yeah, I've been waiting for that three, and yeah, I

458
00:21:50,440 --> 00:21:52,520
Speaker 1: think Florida State pulls off this upset before we get

459
00:21:52,520 --> 00:21:54,240
Speaker 1: to our marqute matchups. Would you have a quick reminder

460
00:21:54,280 --> 00:21:56,960
Speaker 1: to check out our friends three Man Weave, Kimique and

461
00:21:57,040 --> 00:22:00,000
Speaker 1: Jim and Matt Cox, who are releasing bonus college basketball

462
00:22:00,240 --> 00:22:03,679
Speaker 1: episodes every Wednesday morning here on the Big Bets on

463
00:22:03,760 --> 00:22:06,320
Speaker 1: Campus podcast. So if you're into betting college troops, check

464
00:22:06,320 --> 00:22:08,760
Speaker 1: out this week's episode, and we will transition over to

465
00:22:09,160 --> 00:22:11,000
Speaker 1: basketball full time late in December. I also have a

466
00:22:11,040 --> 00:22:12,840
Speaker 1: couple of pieces out there, and we just have tons

467
00:22:12,880 --> 00:22:14,800
Speaker 1: of content from our team to make sure you check

468
00:22:14,840 --> 00:22:17,280
Speaker 1: that out on actionework dot com and the Action Network gap.

469
00:22:17,640 --> 00:22:19,400
Speaker 2: What's your favorite basketball future so far?

470
00:22:19,520 --> 00:22:21,639
Speaker 1: I only played one baby. Oh. By the way, breaking

471
00:22:21,640 --> 00:22:23,840
Speaker 1: news from Brett McMurphy comingan Cal a lot of COVID

472
00:22:23,880 --> 00:22:26,640
Speaker 1: issues if you're thinking about betting them. These teams don't

473
00:22:26,680 --> 00:22:28,840
Speaker 1: identify the players, but there was a presso release out,

474
00:22:29,200 --> 00:22:30,760
Speaker 1: so just keep that in mind. If you were thinking

475
00:22:30,800 --> 00:22:34,480
Speaker 1: about betting the cow game, only one future and we'll

476
00:22:34,920 --> 00:22:37,879
Speaker 1: I'll add more throughout the year. We ad them on

477
00:22:37,920 --> 00:22:40,679
Speaker 1: our podcast. We look at that every week. Once December

478
00:22:40,720 --> 00:22:43,440
Speaker 1: and January rull around and this is not a hover

479
00:22:43,520 --> 00:22:45,720
Speaker 1: bet im. I guess I'm checking the Kentucky fan, but

480
00:22:45,760 --> 00:22:47,720
Speaker 1: I played Kentucky twenty to one. This is the Cal

481
00:22:47,840 --> 00:22:50,119
Speaker 1: Revenge Tour year. I love all the pieces that they added.

482
00:22:50,400 --> 00:22:53,320
Speaker 1: He's a master putting them together and making them work

483
00:22:53,480 --> 00:22:56,280
Speaker 1: come March. Really love the upside. I think they're one

484
00:22:56,280 --> 00:22:58,600
Speaker 1: of the five best teams in the country when it's

485
00:22:58,600 --> 00:23:00,680
Speaker 1: all said and done. Be able to get a better

486
00:23:00,760 --> 00:23:02,760
Speaker 1: number if they struggle early. But I wanted to get

487
00:23:02,800 --> 00:23:05,480
Speaker 1: some exposure who does work right off the bat, So

488
00:23:05,600 --> 00:23:06,080
Speaker 1: that's it.

489
00:23:06,760 --> 00:23:09,200
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, I've got a standard Arkansas thirty to one.

490
00:23:09,240 --> 00:23:10,920
Speaker 4: That's a number that I don't think is going to

491
00:23:11,000 --> 00:23:14,919
Speaker 4: get any better because they Muscleman has lined up a

492
00:23:14,960 --> 00:23:17,120
Speaker 4: lot of teams that he predicts are going to win

493
00:23:17,160 --> 00:23:19,520
Speaker 4: their conference, the Northern Iowas of the world. So out

494
00:23:19,520 --> 00:23:21,840
Speaker 4: of conference Arkansas is going to play a stack schedule.

495
00:23:22,080 --> 00:23:24,040
Speaker 4: He did this last year where he played O r

496
00:23:24,160 --> 00:23:26,400
Speaker 4: U early. He like, he loves to build his non

497
00:23:26,400 --> 00:23:28,239
Speaker 4: conference around teams that he thinks are going to win

498
00:23:28,280 --> 00:23:30,199
Speaker 4: their conference. It makes it better for him for the

499
00:23:30,240 --> 00:23:32,359
Speaker 4: selection committee, and it makes his team stronger because he's

500
00:23:32,400 --> 00:23:35,520
Speaker 4: got about seven or eight transfers that are outstanding players.

501
00:23:35,600 --> 00:23:36,920
Speaker 2: And I don't think that price is ever going to

502
00:23:36,960 --> 00:23:37,520
Speaker 2: get any better.

503
00:23:38,080 --> 00:23:43,440
Speaker 3: Woo Pig Sueye Colin's Talking Razorback Basketball.

504
00:23:43,040 --> 00:23:45,520
Speaker 1: Speaking of plus money, fifty to one, castes on it

505
00:23:45,560 --> 00:23:48,560
Speaker 1: was a high price for Colin talking Arkansas hoops on

506
00:23:48,640 --> 00:23:51,159
Speaker 1: the College Football podcasts. All right, good stuff there. We

507
00:23:51,160 --> 00:23:53,479
Speaker 1: have a lot to get to. The marquee matchups. We

508
00:23:53,520 --> 00:23:55,840
Speaker 1: just we just did four broke them down well and

509
00:23:55,880 --> 00:23:59,760
Speaker 1: look at her. Look what we agreed. Let's disagree.

510
00:23:59,800 --> 00:24:05,880
Speaker 3: So it's another fabulous weekend of college football. Let's check

511
00:24:05,920 --> 00:24:09,159
Speaker 3: out the marquee matchups, we'll all end up bedding for

512
00:24:09,359 --> 00:24:10,040
Speaker 3: Week ten.

513
00:24:11,080 --> 00:24:12,840
Speaker 1: I know that we're going to disagree, at least on

514
00:24:12,880 --> 00:24:19,879
Speaker 1: this first game. Oregon seven point favorites at Washington over under,

515
00:24:20,160 --> 00:24:24,560
Speaker 1: sitting at fifty one. Here's the question when it comes

516
00:24:24,600 --> 00:24:28,040
Speaker 1: to this game with Washington. Yeah, I mean, people are

517
00:24:28,040 --> 00:24:31,280
Speaker 1: saying Jimmy Lake came out and was talking about Oregon's

518
00:24:31,320 --> 00:24:34,960
Speaker 1: not on academics at their academic level. It's gonna be

519
00:24:35,000 --> 00:24:37,880
Speaker 1: motivation for Oregon. If Oregon needs motivation for this game,

520
00:24:37,960 --> 00:24:39,960
Speaker 1: they're in trouble. But I know that. I mean, they're

521
00:24:39,960 --> 00:24:43,080
Speaker 1: in the college wall playoff discussion. This is Washington's. Washington

522
00:24:43,080 --> 00:24:44,800
Speaker 1: is would have been one of the most disappointing teams

523
00:24:45,280 --> 00:24:47,960
Speaker 1: in the nation this year. They're four and four. They

524
00:24:48,000 --> 00:24:51,639
Speaker 1: open with a loss at home to FCS Montana. Dylan

525
00:24:51,680 --> 00:24:55,320
Speaker 1: Morris has not been great. Their offense has not been great,

526
00:24:56,080 --> 00:24:57,720
Speaker 1: but they have I mean the you know, their start

527
00:24:57,720 --> 00:24:59,280
Speaker 1: tight end was out for a while. All three of

528
00:24:59,280 --> 00:25:00,760
Speaker 1: their top receivers is we oft. The start of the

529
00:25:00,840 --> 00:25:03,760
Speaker 1: year still has been great. Play calling has been great,

530
00:25:03,760 --> 00:25:07,000
Speaker 1: but there's just some at least some flashes in recent weeks.

531
00:25:08,240 --> 00:25:11,040
Speaker 1: Just their defense. One of the best secondaries in the country,

532
00:25:11,960 --> 00:25:16,119
Speaker 1: mctre McDuffie is and Kyler gordon O freature pros. And

533
00:25:16,200 --> 00:25:19,399
Speaker 1: you just can't throw on Washington at all. Part of

534
00:25:19,400 --> 00:25:21,399
Speaker 1: that is by design as well. They have two excellent corners.

535
00:25:21,440 --> 00:25:23,520
Speaker 1: But the run defense has been really bad. Usually it's

536
00:25:23,560 --> 00:25:24,959
Speaker 1: like they let you run a little bit, but it's

537
00:25:25,000 --> 00:25:27,520
Speaker 1: been really bad this year. So that's that's the concern.

538
00:25:27,560 --> 00:25:30,199
Speaker 1: Okay them, are they about a score on Oregon? And

539
00:25:30,240 --> 00:25:33,800
Speaker 1: then can they slow down Oregon's rushing attack? Anthony Brown

540
00:25:33,880 --> 00:25:35,760
Speaker 1: running the ball before I get to that. Yes, I

541
00:25:35,800 --> 00:25:38,439
Speaker 1: think that the defense is going to step up here

542
00:25:38,480 --> 00:25:40,040
Speaker 1: and stop thrown. I'll tell you why in a second.

543
00:25:40,040 --> 00:25:43,160
Speaker 1: But this is also Washington's. Washington was waiting for this game.

544
00:25:43,320 --> 00:25:46,320
Speaker 1: You remember last year they won the division, but Oregon

545
00:25:46,359 --> 00:25:48,080
Speaker 1: went on to win the conference because they couldn't go

546
00:25:48,640 --> 00:25:53,359
Speaker 1: and play because of COVID, and believe it or not,

547
00:25:53,480 --> 00:25:55,520
Speaker 1: you want to talk about like a new lease on life.

548
00:25:56,359 --> 00:25:59,600
Speaker 1: Washington's four and four. I didn't even realize this when

549
00:25:59,600 --> 00:26:01,960
Speaker 1: I put my bet in Washington's four and four. They

550
00:26:02,000 --> 00:26:04,040
Speaker 1: win this game. They're in first place in the division.

551
00:26:04,280 --> 00:26:05,960
Speaker 1: I have a bet on them to win the division.

552
00:26:06,160 --> 00:26:08,040
Speaker 1: They're four and four, They're gonna they could be in

553
00:26:08,040 --> 00:26:11,040
Speaker 1: the first place in Division ruin Oregon's College twall playoff hopes.

554
00:26:11,440 --> 00:26:13,399
Speaker 1: So there's no doubt they're gonna be up for this

555
00:26:13,480 --> 00:26:17,480
Speaker 1: game at night, primetime, Husky Stadium, raucus environment. Why do

556
00:26:17,560 --> 00:26:19,159
Speaker 1: I think that they can stop the run? That's what

557
00:26:19,160 --> 00:26:21,200
Speaker 1: this comes down to, the guy. I assume that you're

558
00:26:21,200 --> 00:26:24,000
Speaker 1: gonna say they can't, which is fair, and then Oregon

559
00:26:24,040 --> 00:26:27,679
Speaker 1: will be able to shred them. But Washington last week

560
00:26:28,119 --> 00:26:32,399
Speaker 1: made basically took their entire defense and blew it up

561
00:26:33,080 --> 00:26:37,639
Speaker 1: and inserted an entirely new defense. So normally they have

562
00:26:37,680 --> 00:26:40,240
Speaker 1: three defensive linemen, they're dropping eight, and they've been bad

563
00:26:40,280 --> 00:26:43,080
Speaker 1: against the run. Well, here's what they did. They took

564
00:26:43,160 --> 00:26:45,159
Speaker 1: Kyler Gordon as one of the best corners in the country.

565
00:26:45,240 --> 00:26:48,360
Speaker 1: They moved him to slot. He's a really good tackler.

566
00:26:48,600 --> 00:26:51,679
Speaker 1: He can come down and defend the run. It's will

567
00:26:51,680 --> 00:26:54,040
Speaker 1: also be important playing the slot against Oregon likes to

568
00:26:54,080 --> 00:26:56,320
Speaker 1: throw to their backs quarterback likes to run, so they

569
00:26:56,320 --> 00:26:59,560
Speaker 1: moved him to slot. They kept McDuffie's also one of

570
00:26:59,560 --> 00:27:01,840
Speaker 1: the best corner in the country on the outside, and

571
00:27:02,760 --> 00:27:05,359
Speaker 1: they moved they have a freshman who's are also on

572
00:27:05,400 --> 00:27:08,240
Speaker 1: the outside now at corner, really good corner. They took

573
00:27:08,520 --> 00:27:11,320
Speaker 1: Bradley Hyles, the Oklahoma transfer nickel. They moved him from

574
00:27:11,400 --> 00:27:16,840
Speaker 1: slot to not a great tackler, to safety. They for

575
00:27:16,880 --> 00:27:19,000
Speaker 1: the first time all year, they started Dom Hampton to

576
00:27:19,000 --> 00:27:21,640
Speaker 1: twenty five bigger safety. Their safety has been all full

577
00:27:21,680 --> 00:27:24,880
Speaker 1: of tackling. Played him in the box. He didn't miss

578
00:27:24,880 --> 00:27:29,399
Speaker 1: a tackle all last week. So then they also started

579
00:27:29,400 --> 00:27:34,600
Speaker 1: this kid Brunner, a legacy for Washington, freshman inside linebacker

580
00:27:34,640 --> 00:27:37,320
Speaker 1: making his first start. What did he do? Sixteen tackles,

581
00:27:37,600 --> 00:27:40,879
Speaker 1: one and a half sacks, one forced fumble, first player

582
00:27:40,880 --> 00:27:42,640
Speaker 1: and pack twelve ishuy to win Freshman of the week

583
00:27:43,160 --> 00:27:46,040
Speaker 1: end Defensive Player of the week. He was firing on

584
00:27:46,080 --> 00:27:50,480
Speaker 1: all cylinders. Also, they get Zion, their start out edge rusher,

585
00:27:50,960 --> 00:27:52,840
Speaker 1: who's gonna go in the first or second round. He

586
00:27:52,920 --> 00:27:55,040
Speaker 1: was up to twenty six naps. Apparently you're going to

587
00:27:55,119 --> 00:27:59,000
Speaker 1: have full full go this week for Washington. But the

588
00:27:59,080 --> 00:28:02,159
Speaker 1: main thing is they're playing with Gordon and now Hampton

589
00:28:02,200 --> 00:28:05,639
Speaker 1: in the box. They're bigger. This linebacker looks like a stud.

590
00:28:05,840 --> 00:28:09,280
Speaker 1: They're not. They're bringing their safeties down. They're playing with

591
00:28:09,359 --> 00:28:12,040
Speaker 1: the better safeties in the box, and they're playing with

592
00:28:12,080 --> 00:28:17,160
Speaker 1: their best run stuffing corner in the slot, and they're

593
00:28:17,160 --> 00:28:18,800
Speaker 1: not just dropping their stats. So I don't think that

594
00:28:18,800 --> 00:28:20,920
Speaker 1: they're gonna do that this game. They're trusting their corners,

595
00:28:20,960 --> 00:28:24,480
Speaker 1: which Washington by scheme generally hasn't done in the past,

596
00:28:24,520 --> 00:28:27,040
Speaker 1: but they should here. You got to get better against

597
00:28:27,080 --> 00:28:30,119
Speaker 1: the run, and you have elite corners. I think that

598
00:28:30,280 --> 00:28:32,159
Speaker 1: they have three corners that are the all three of

599
00:28:32,240 --> 00:28:35,200
Speaker 1: the top highest rated corners in the PAC twelve. So

600
00:28:35,480 --> 00:28:38,920
Speaker 1: I loved some of the changes that Washington made. Now

601
00:28:38,960 --> 00:28:41,520
Speaker 1: it was against Stanford, it was one game from a

602
00:28:41,520 --> 00:28:44,680
Speaker 1: schematic perspective, and then the bodies that they're getting in

603
00:28:44,720 --> 00:28:48,000
Speaker 1: the box, when you compare them to the mistackle percentages

604
00:28:48,040 --> 00:28:51,480
Speaker 1: for the players that were in there, it's night and day.

605
00:28:52,160 --> 00:28:54,920
Speaker 1: And I think that that's gonna show in the field.

606
00:28:55,480 --> 00:28:58,160
Speaker 1: I'm taking a leap of faith here. But I'm also

607
00:28:58,240 --> 00:29:00,640
Speaker 1: not high on this Oregon team. Not no, We're close

608
00:29:00,680 --> 00:29:05,120
Speaker 1: to his high as the market and people have to

609
00:29:05,160 --> 00:29:07,520
Speaker 1: remember that this is the same organ team that lost

610
00:29:07,520 --> 00:29:10,640
Speaker 1: at Stanford. Washington just beat Stafford. This is the same

611
00:29:10,680 --> 00:29:12,640
Speaker 1: Morgan team that needed to come back in the fourth quarter,

612
00:29:12,680 --> 00:29:15,040
Speaker 1: to beat cal at home, to beat Fresno at home.

613
00:29:15,440 --> 00:29:17,360
Speaker 1: And who is Oregon beat by more than seven points

614
00:29:17,400 --> 00:29:24,280
Speaker 1: this year? Colorado, Arizona, and Stonybrook all at home. That's it.

615
00:29:25,560 --> 00:29:30,880
Speaker 1: Gimme Washington plus seven. I think they pull off the upset.

616
00:29:31,320 --> 00:29:32,680
Speaker 2: How do I even follow that up?

617
00:29:33,280 --> 00:29:34,920
Speaker 1: I mean, you can just rely on the numbers, though

618
00:29:34,960 --> 00:29:37,560
Speaker 1: the numbers stay that washed, it's gonna get flown.

619
00:29:37,280 --> 00:29:41,080
Speaker 4: Out first off, forty seven degrees, forty percent chance of rain,

620
00:29:41,600 --> 00:29:45,200
Speaker 4: twelve mile an hour across the grid, winds, so there's

621
00:29:45,240 --> 00:29:47,360
Speaker 4: some weather element coming in here too, So I don't

622
00:29:47,400 --> 00:29:50,120
Speaker 4: expect a real I didn't expect a lot of air

623
00:29:50,920 --> 00:29:52,800
Speaker 4: under the ball from either of these offenses.

624
00:29:52,800 --> 00:29:53,240
Speaker 2: Anyways.

625
00:29:53,440 --> 00:29:56,040
Speaker 4: You know, it's funny you mentioned those comments that Jimmy

626
00:29:56,120 --> 00:29:58,440
Speaker 4: Lake made. It's fun because it's funny because my oldest

627
00:29:58,480 --> 00:30:00,440
Speaker 4: son is actually looking at Oregon to go to school there.

628
00:30:00,760 --> 00:30:03,320
Speaker 4: They're sixty fourth and computer science and they're fifty fifth

629
00:30:03,360 --> 00:30:06,560
Speaker 4: in mathematics. All right, that ain't so bad Jimmy Lake.

630
00:30:06,760 --> 00:30:08,960
Speaker 4: But you know, for him to say that we compete

631
00:30:08,960 --> 00:30:12,680
Speaker 4: with academic prowess like Notre Dame Stanford USC is quite funny.

632
00:30:12,720 --> 00:30:16,400
Speaker 4: Chrystibal's response was, our every single ounce of our focus

633
00:30:16,600 --> 00:30:19,040
Speaker 4: is on the game, and I think it's important Stuck.

634
00:30:19,200 --> 00:30:21,800
Speaker 4: I agree that the schematic changes were needed.

635
00:30:21,960 --> 00:30:24,160
Speaker 1: Maybe he Fundy was at Washington University in Saint Louis.

636
00:30:24,160 --> 00:30:27,160
Speaker 1: By the way, that's a really okay. Sorry, I love

637
00:30:27,240 --> 00:30:27,560
Speaker 1: you watch.

638
00:30:28,080 --> 00:30:30,600
Speaker 4: I agree with you that the schematic changes were needed

639
00:30:30,640 --> 00:30:32,440
Speaker 4: by Jimmy Lake on the defensive.

640
00:30:32,000 --> 00:30:34,320
Speaker 2: Side of the ball, and I had read that.

641
00:30:34,400 --> 00:30:36,960
Speaker 4: But my problem is is that Stanford still average fifty

642
00:30:37,000 --> 00:30:41,280
Speaker 4: four percent success rate on running plays. That's ten percent

643
00:30:41,280 --> 00:30:43,560
Speaker 4: above national average on running plays last week, and they

644
00:30:43,560 --> 00:30:45,840
Speaker 4: were only stuff seven of twenty four runs, which is

645
00:30:45,880 --> 00:30:49,160
Speaker 4: below national average and stuff rate. So the people they're

646
00:30:49,160 --> 00:30:52,000
Speaker 4: moving into the box is good at at stopping explosive runs,

647
00:30:52,000 --> 00:30:54,240
Speaker 4: but it's not exactly meeting at the line of scrimmage

648
00:30:54,280 --> 00:30:57,160
Speaker 4: or getting tackles for loss, which was a part of.

649
00:30:57,160 --> 00:30:58,080
Speaker 2: The handicap that I had.

650
00:30:58,080 --> 00:30:59,560
Speaker 4: Now, I'm not going to come on here and pretend

651
00:30:59,680 --> 00:31:02,280
Speaker 4: like this is Oregon's defense is going to be able

652
00:31:02,320 --> 00:31:04,600
Speaker 4: to stop what Washington is doing. I just don't like

653
00:31:04,720 --> 00:31:09,040
Speaker 4: Jimmy Lake. I don't like Jimmy Lake's comments. You know,

654
00:31:09,080 --> 00:31:11,800
Speaker 4: you look at some of these things under his reign,

655
00:31:12,280 --> 00:31:15,880
Speaker 4: the hiring of John Donovan, his offensive coordinator. He's just

656
00:31:15,880 --> 00:31:18,960
Speaker 4: an offensive dinosaur. I mean, he is not fit for

657
00:31:19,000 --> 00:31:20,960
Speaker 4: this job whatsoever. And on the other side you have

658
00:31:21,080 --> 00:31:23,640
Speaker 4: Joe morehead back on the sidelines, and that's just a

659
00:31:23,760 --> 00:31:27,720
Speaker 4: huge coaching mismatch when it comes from an offensive perspectives

660
00:31:27,720 --> 00:31:29,880
Speaker 4: have been fantastic on the ground with Anthony Brown now

661
00:31:29,920 --> 00:31:33,400
Speaker 4: Travis Dye greatest mustache and fall of college football. The

662
00:31:33,440 --> 00:31:35,960
Speaker 4: offense is ninth and havoc allowed. They're fourteenth in line

663
00:31:36,040 --> 00:31:37,640
Speaker 4: yards and like I said, they're gonna move the ball.

664
00:31:37,680 --> 00:31:40,479
Speaker 4: Maybe they'll get met five to seven yards and standard downs,

665
00:31:40,920 --> 00:31:42,920
Speaker 4: but again Washingtons one hundred and eighteenth and stuff. Right,

666
00:31:42,960 --> 00:31:45,440
Speaker 4: like I said, that hasn't changed. So the Huskies are

667
00:31:45,960 --> 00:31:47,640
Speaker 4: you know, they used to be the standard in college

668
00:31:47,640 --> 00:31:50,560
Speaker 4: football and defensive havoc. Now they're outside the top one hundred.

669
00:31:50,880 --> 00:31:52,920
Speaker 4: So I think Oregon's gonna run all day, especially with

670
00:31:52,960 --> 00:31:56,920
Speaker 4: the weather. Big advantage in finishing drives. Oregon's team total

671
00:31:57,160 --> 00:32:00,240
Speaker 4: is certainly that was in my scope all week. If

672
00:32:00,240 --> 00:32:01,560
Speaker 4: you don't want to take the seven, if you can't

673
00:32:01,560 --> 00:32:03,520
Speaker 4: swallo the seven, because I agree with Stuck, Organ's not.

674
00:32:03,480 --> 00:32:07,680
Speaker 2: Like beating people like by oblivion, like huge amounts.

675
00:32:07,920 --> 00:32:09,960
Speaker 4: The question is can Washington keep up if you're going

676
00:32:10,040 --> 00:32:12,520
Speaker 4: to back that seven The offense is one hundred and

677
00:32:12,520 --> 00:32:16,240
Speaker 4: twenty second big play percentage. They're in bad weather and

678
00:32:16,280 --> 00:32:19,280
Speaker 4: that's one area where Oregon struggles. So if Washington can't

679
00:32:19,280 --> 00:32:22,800
Speaker 4: expose where Oregon struggles, which is defending big play, Organ's

680
00:32:22,800 --> 00:32:25,720
Speaker 4: outside the top one hundred tackling on defense, I said

681
00:32:25,720 --> 00:32:27,680
Speaker 4: it a billion times. They can't defend the rush. They're

682
00:32:27,720 --> 00:32:30,440
Speaker 4: good at pressure in the quarterback, they can't defend the rush.

683
00:32:30,800 --> 00:32:33,040
Speaker 4: So you know, if Washington can't expose that and get

684
00:32:33,080 --> 00:32:35,600
Speaker 4: to the second level, their scoring is going to be light.

685
00:32:36,360 --> 00:32:39,120
Speaker 4: I'm gonna bet the angle of Oregon over twenty eight

686
00:32:39,120 --> 00:32:41,520
Speaker 4: and a half. I know it's a slower tempo game,

687
00:32:41,800 --> 00:32:43,680
Speaker 4: and I know that there's not gonna be explosive plays

688
00:32:43,680 --> 00:32:46,440
Speaker 4: on the ground, But I don't think Crystal Ball is

689
00:32:46,440 --> 00:32:48,720
Speaker 4: a very happy person right now, So I'm not expecting

690
00:32:48,800 --> 00:32:50,760
Speaker 4: anybody to be taking knees or Chris.

691
00:32:50,640 --> 00:32:53,080
Speaker 1: Ball doesn't know how to take knees. Yeah, I might

692
00:32:53,080 --> 00:32:54,520
Speaker 1: be able to get a back door if he's up

693
00:32:54,520 --> 00:32:56,280
Speaker 1: ten and doesn't know how to take knees by the

694
00:32:56,280 --> 00:32:57,560
Speaker 1: way Ken State take knees.

695
00:32:57,880 --> 00:32:59,520
Speaker 2: I've taken team total over twenty and a half.

696
00:32:59,560 --> 00:33:02,240
Speaker 4: I'm not gonna conflict with your washing plus seven, but

697
00:33:02,280 --> 00:33:04,120
Speaker 4: the offense with John Donovan worries me.

698
00:33:04,240 --> 00:33:08,000
Speaker 1: That's all we shall see. I'm actually looking forward to

699
00:33:08,000 --> 00:33:10,280
Speaker 1: that one, especially because I have a we both have

700
00:33:10,360 --> 00:33:13,120
Speaker 1: the North right, yeah, to win the North, which I

701
00:33:13,560 --> 00:33:15,240
Speaker 1: was I wrote off and then I look at the

702
00:33:15,240 --> 00:33:17,880
Speaker 1: standing and I'm like, oh wait, all right, let's move

703
00:33:17,920 --> 00:33:20,240
Speaker 1: on to our second marquee game of the day here.

704
00:33:20,480 --> 00:33:22,880
Speaker 1: Texas A and M has looked better in recent weeks,

705
00:33:22,920 --> 00:33:27,320
Speaker 1: although the competition hasn't been great, hosting Auburn. Auburn fresh

706
00:33:27,400 --> 00:33:29,680
Speaker 1: off that win that we talked about earlier against Ole Miss,

707
00:33:29,680 --> 00:33:33,440
Speaker 1: but it was an under manned Ole Miss team. These

708
00:33:33,440 --> 00:33:40,880
Speaker 1: two teams still have a shot to win the SEC West.

709
00:33:41,400 --> 00:33:43,640
Speaker 1: Texas A and M already beat Alabama. Auburn will get

710
00:33:43,640 --> 00:33:46,720
Speaker 1: to play Alabama later in the year, so there's still

711
00:33:46,760 --> 00:33:50,440
Speaker 1: a lot to be determined. Texas A and M four

712
00:33:50,440 --> 00:33:52,720
Speaker 1: and a half point favored here. This line is dipped

713
00:33:52,720 --> 00:33:54,200
Speaker 1: out at three and a half at the four four

714
00:33:54,200 --> 00:33:57,040
Speaker 1: and a half over under forty nine is dipped down

715
00:33:57,040 --> 00:33:59,320
Speaker 1: a few points. I think I saw you put in

716
00:34:00,040 --> 00:34:02,000
Speaker 1: a bet on the app on the under twenty four

717
00:34:02,120 --> 00:34:04,400
Speaker 1: first half. I took up half the podcast. I'm at

718
00:34:04,400 --> 00:34:07,120
Speaker 1: Watchington Defense. I will let you talk this one. I

719
00:34:07,160 --> 00:34:09,759
Speaker 1: just need a plush here. So this just a gentle shove,

720
00:34:09,800 --> 00:34:10,960
Speaker 1: and I think I'm going to be joining you on

721
00:34:10,960 --> 00:34:12,279
Speaker 1: this under because that was my lean here.

722
00:34:12,680 --> 00:34:14,120
Speaker 2: Yeah, Texa, A and M.

723
00:34:14,120 --> 00:34:16,840
Speaker 4: They're off a bye. They went heavy rush their past

724
00:34:16,840 --> 00:34:19,960
Speaker 4: two games. I know the level of competition isn't exactly Alabama,

725
00:34:20,320 --> 00:34:22,319
Speaker 4: but they've had twice as many running plays as they

726
00:34:22,360 --> 00:34:24,920
Speaker 4: have passing games, and that's by design when you have

727
00:34:25,480 --> 00:34:26,600
Speaker 4: a Shane and Spiller.

728
00:34:27,080 --> 00:34:31,319
Speaker 2: They rank two of the top twenty FBS backs by

729
00:34:31,400 --> 00:34:35,640
Speaker 2: PFF in the category of elusiveness, which means these guys

730
00:34:35,680 --> 00:34:38,680
Speaker 2: are about impossible to take down. You're lucky to have

731
00:34:38,800 --> 00:34:40,160
Speaker 2: one back in the top twenty.

732
00:34:40,880 --> 00:34:42,879
Speaker 4: A and M has two, and I mean we're talking

733
00:34:42,960 --> 00:34:45,279
Speaker 4: like Zamir White, like teams at Auburn his face like

734
00:34:45,400 --> 00:34:47,520
Speaker 4: they have not seen a running back this great.

735
00:34:48,160 --> 00:34:49,319
Speaker 2: A and M's got two of them.

736
00:34:49,680 --> 00:34:51,719
Speaker 4: Jimbo mentioned this week he got he got to his

737
00:34:51,800 --> 00:34:54,839
Speaker 4: presser off the bye week that my offense now has

738
00:34:54,880 --> 00:34:58,719
Speaker 4: an identity, and that is heavy run Calzada throwing into

739
00:34:58,760 --> 00:35:01,920
Speaker 4: a great Auburn second that's just going to be limited

740
00:35:01,960 --> 00:35:03,880
Speaker 4: to play action pass on third downs.

741
00:35:03,920 --> 00:35:05,880
Speaker 2: And that's after they've.

742
00:35:05,640 --> 00:35:07,919
Speaker 4: Completely set up the run so that they can get

743
00:35:07,920 --> 00:35:10,440
Speaker 4: this secondary to bite. I don't think you're gonna get

744
00:35:10,480 --> 00:35:12,719
Speaker 4: Roger McCreery uh at the corner to bite.

745
00:35:12,719 --> 00:35:14,040
Speaker 2: I don't think you're gonna get smoked Monday.

746
00:35:14,239 --> 00:35:18,239
Speaker 4: It's a very good secondary that yeah, and the four

747
00:35:18,320 --> 00:35:21,719
Speaker 4: two five defense, the defense that that Derek Mason is

748
00:35:21,719 --> 00:35:25,600
Speaker 4: calling is a really great secondary multiple schemes. I don't

749
00:35:25,600 --> 00:35:28,239
Speaker 4: think Jimbo wants kaw Zada throwing into that unless it's

750
00:35:28,239 --> 00:35:30,120
Speaker 4: like third and eighteen, and even then it might be

751
00:35:30,160 --> 00:35:32,840
Speaker 4: a swing pass over to a Shane or Spiller. So

752
00:35:33,080 --> 00:35:35,040
Speaker 4: I just I don't see a lot from kaal Zada

753
00:35:35,080 --> 00:35:36,520
Speaker 4: coming out of this game. And that's by design.

754
00:35:36,920 --> 00:35:37,680
Speaker 2: Are you kidding me?

755
00:35:37,920 --> 00:35:41,440
Speaker 1: Who gives this sh We havexach calls that up.

756
00:35:42,000 --> 00:35:43,719
Speaker 2: So as far as bo Nix goes.

757
00:35:43,840 --> 00:35:45,960
Speaker 1: Bow Nicks season, then full effect.

758
00:35:47,320 --> 00:35:49,040
Speaker 4: He's got to look at this four two five defensive

759
00:35:49,080 --> 00:35:52,200
Speaker 4: Texas A and m uh. They're fourteenth against the explosive pass,

760
00:35:52,239 --> 00:35:55,200
Speaker 4: their sixth in defensive finishing drives text A and m's

761
00:35:55,239 --> 00:35:58,200
Speaker 4: top twenty in coverage, and Jimbo spoke of what makes

762
00:35:58,239 --> 00:36:00,640
Speaker 4: bo Nick special in these games, and he does this

763
00:36:00,680 --> 00:36:05,240
Speaker 4: little scramble routine, his little spin snake move like delayed

764
00:36:05,280 --> 00:36:09,160
Speaker 4: bootleg type thing that he has coached. Mike Elko and

765
00:36:09,239 --> 00:36:12,760
Speaker 4: Jimbo have coached the defense all week about the zones

766
00:36:12,840 --> 00:36:15,960
Speaker 4: on the field you have to cover when Bonix gets loose,

767
00:36:16,800 --> 00:36:18,759
Speaker 4: And I thought that was, I mean, one of the

768
00:36:18,800 --> 00:36:21,759
Speaker 4: most intelligent things I've heard about how to defend bo

769
00:36:21,920 --> 00:36:24,480
Speaker 4: Nicks when all shit breaks loose, because it does and

770
00:36:24,480 --> 00:36:26,400
Speaker 4: then Bonix does all this crazy stuff.

771
00:36:26,080 --> 00:36:27,359
Speaker 2: And boom, you have a pass. Right.

772
00:36:27,880 --> 00:36:31,239
Speaker 4: So that's why I like the under because Jimbo and

773
00:36:31,280 --> 00:36:33,400
Speaker 4: I Elko have a plan with four two five to

774
00:36:33,600 --> 00:36:36,680
Speaker 4: disguise pre snap and to fill the zones where Bonix

775
00:36:36,719 --> 00:36:40,279
Speaker 4: likes to throw when he scrambles. Harson's expected to stick

776
00:36:40,320 --> 00:36:43,120
Speaker 4: to a balanced approach with Bigsby and Hunter right into

777
00:36:43,160 --> 00:36:46,799
Speaker 4: the Tamu front seven instead of testing the secondary. Brian

778
00:36:46,840 --> 00:36:50,800
Speaker 4: Harrison's like hellbent on having a balanced attack. Jimbo wants

779
00:36:50,800 --> 00:36:53,800
Speaker 4: to own time a possession stat It's like his maenttra

780
00:36:53,880 --> 00:36:57,239
Speaker 4: It's it's everything. If he had a Twitter banner Profilelet's

781
00:36:57,239 --> 00:36:59,399
Speaker 4: say I want to own the clock. They're ninety six,

782
00:36:59,440 --> 00:37:03,520
Speaker 4: then tempo, we Auburn's fifth and defensive passing downs, explosiveness.

783
00:37:03,680 --> 00:37:06,280
Speaker 4: They're gonna limit big plays against a Shane and Spiller.

784
00:37:06,400 --> 00:37:09,360
Speaker 4: They're gonna limit what Kawazada does with the play action pass.

785
00:37:09,800 --> 00:37:12,640
Speaker 4: I took under first half forty eight and forty seven

786
00:37:12,840 --> 00:37:15,000
Speaker 4: very key, so forty nine to fifteen and a half

787
00:37:15,040 --> 00:37:17,640
Speaker 4: on the board, those are good unders. Under forty nine

788
00:37:17,719 --> 00:37:19,719
Speaker 4: is good. I lean Texas A and M here, but

789
00:37:19,800 --> 00:37:21,600
Speaker 4: I have power rate at minus two, so I can't

790
00:37:21,600 --> 00:37:23,200
Speaker 4: get up into this dead number. This five and a

791
00:37:23,239 --> 00:37:26,239
Speaker 4: half four. I think it's way too much. I'm not

792
00:37:26,239 --> 00:37:28,239
Speaker 4: really exactly looking to back Auburn. I will if I

793
00:37:28,280 --> 00:37:29,840
Speaker 4: had to, but I think the under is just a

794
00:37:29,920 --> 00:37:32,000
Speaker 4: much better play A and M off A by give

795
00:37:32,040 --> 00:37:34,719
Speaker 4: me first half under Auburn coming off, you know, a

796
00:37:34,800 --> 00:37:37,120
Speaker 4: consecutive amount of games on the road in a big

797
00:37:37,120 --> 00:37:38,439
Speaker 4: spot first half under.

798
00:37:39,040 --> 00:37:43,000
Speaker 1: I agree with you, and I'm gonna be joining you.

799
00:37:43,560 --> 00:37:48,520
Speaker 1: I'm down for the under. You know another reason, because

800
00:37:48,520 --> 00:37:52,239
Speaker 1: of punters from down under. Both of these teams have

801
00:37:53,000 --> 00:37:57,600
Speaker 1: excellent punters from Australia who can boom the ball. Let's

802
00:37:57,600 --> 00:37:57,840
Speaker 1: why I.

803
00:37:58,000 --> 00:38:00,960
Speaker 2: Start that less Miles started that turn and the Austin game.

804
00:38:01,040 --> 00:38:04,600
Speaker 1: Yeah, the ant punters. So they both have a huge legs,

805
00:38:04,600 --> 00:38:06,000
Speaker 1: so I think they I agree. I think that both

806
00:38:06,040 --> 00:38:09,839
Speaker 1: these defenses have some advantages. And you're not gonna see

807
00:38:09,880 --> 00:38:13,000
Speaker 1: too many explosive plays. You're gonna see each team be

808
00:38:13,000 --> 00:38:17,360
Speaker 1: pretty conservative early, lots of punts in the first half

809
00:38:17,360 --> 00:38:20,600
Speaker 1: and big punts to flip field position. So uh, I

810
00:38:20,640 --> 00:38:21,560
Speaker 1: agree with you there, And.

811
00:38:21,560 --> 00:38:23,960
Speaker 2: You know we're gonna get another team, another SEC team.

812
00:38:24,000 --> 00:38:24,520
Speaker 2: Awful bye.

813
00:38:24,560 --> 00:38:26,400
Speaker 4: But these SEC teams that get the bye week and

814
00:38:26,440 --> 00:38:28,040
Speaker 4: come off of it, they look excellent.

815
00:38:28,320 --> 00:38:30,480
Speaker 2: They get a week of rest, they look fantastic.

816
00:38:31,040 --> 00:38:33,399
Speaker 1: All right, Let's move on to our third marquee game

817
00:38:33,440 --> 00:38:37,320
Speaker 1: of the day. Michigan State, currently in the college football

818
00:38:37,360 --> 00:38:40,839
Speaker 1: Playoff in the first four of the Collegewall Playoff, will

819
00:38:40,840 --> 00:38:45,080
Speaker 1: travel to Purdue and Purdue is a three point home

820
00:38:45,160 --> 00:38:47,759
Speaker 1: underdog over under fifty three. This could have been a

821
00:38:47,800 --> 00:38:49,399
Speaker 1: look This could have been a look aheader look away

822
00:38:49,480 --> 00:38:53,399
Speaker 1: segment just from a horrible situational spot. Michigan State now

823
00:38:53,440 --> 00:38:55,520
Speaker 1: and the Collegewable Playoff for rankings top four for the

824
00:38:55,520 --> 00:38:59,080
Speaker 1: first time. They come back to beat their in state rival,

825
00:38:59,120 --> 00:39:01,480
Speaker 1: and now they go to who we've known is knocked

826
00:39:01,480 --> 00:39:05,040
Speaker 1: off some big teams at home in their day. I

827
00:39:05,400 --> 00:39:09,439
Speaker 1: love Purdue this weekend. Probably my favorite bet. Look bad

828
00:39:09,440 --> 00:39:12,080
Speaker 1: spot for Michigan State. Great Michigan State. I don't I

829
00:39:12,120 --> 00:39:14,359
Speaker 1: don't know where all this love is coming from. This

830
00:39:14,400 --> 00:39:16,239
Speaker 1: is a team that should have lost to Nebraska if

831
00:39:16,239 --> 00:39:18,279
Speaker 1: they don't get a punt return for a touchdown at

832
00:39:18,520 --> 00:39:20,520
Speaker 1: ten yards in the second half. It's a team that

833
00:39:20,520 --> 00:39:23,840
Speaker 1: should have lost to Indiana and Jack Tuttle if they

834
00:39:23,840 --> 00:39:25,960
Speaker 1: don't get a pick six. They went twenty to fifteen.

835
00:39:26,080 --> 00:39:30,000
Speaker 1: They were out gained by Indiana's poverty offense. This is

836
00:39:30,040 --> 00:39:32,480
Speaker 1: a team that was down thirty to fourteen in the

837
00:39:32,520 --> 00:39:35,239
Speaker 1: second half to Michigan and gave up six hundred yards

838
00:39:35,239 --> 00:39:37,480
Speaker 1: of offense and we're out gameing almost two hundred yards.

839
00:39:37,880 --> 00:39:41,200
Speaker 1: Oh in Miami. They you know, they scoreboard looked slopsid.

840
00:39:41,239 --> 00:39:43,520
Speaker 1: I maman didn't want to tackle that day. Huge fourth quarter.

841
00:39:43,600 --> 00:39:45,560
Speaker 1: They had a twenty percent win probability at one point

842
00:39:45,560 --> 00:39:49,239
Speaker 1: in that game. They could have four losses easily right now.

843
00:39:50,040 --> 00:39:52,880
Speaker 1: So I think this Michigan State team is override in

844
00:39:52,920 --> 00:39:57,080
Speaker 1: the market. Keath Walker has been amazing, But you know,

845
00:39:57,120 --> 00:40:00,040
Speaker 1: Purdue top twenty five success right against the run, the

846
00:40:00,200 --> 00:40:02,719
Speaker 1: paper run. Their defense been really good, and I think

847
00:40:02,719 --> 00:40:06,040
Speaker 1: that they can pretty much sell out here and stop

848
00:40:06,080 --> 00:40:08,600
Speaker 1: Walker because I don't think Jalen Naylor is gonna play,

849
00:40:09,120 --> 00:40:11,640
Speaker 1: which is huge. He's leads the team in receiving touchdowns

850
00:40:11,640 --> 00:40:13,759
Speaker 1: at their deep threat. He didn't play in the second

851
00:40:13,760 --> 00:40:16,200
Speaker 1: half last week. He was in a cast. I think

852
00:40:16,239 --> 00:40:19,399
Speaker 1: he's out and on the other side of the ball,

853
00:40:19,400 --> 00:40:21,920
Speaker 1: Purdue can't run it. To throw that out. They're not

854
00:40:21,960 --> 00:40:25,520
Speaker 1: running it here. They can't run against anybody. What is Purdue?

855
00:40:25,560 --> 00:40:28,799
Speaker 1: It's a short passing attack, quick passing attack headlined by

856
00:40:28,880 --> 00:40:33,160
Speaker 1: David Bell. What does Michigan State do poorly? They can't

857
00:40:33,160 --> 00:40:35,839
Speaker 1: stop the pass and they know that their corners aren't

858
00:40:35,840 --> 00:40:38,359
Speaker 1: creates and they play really soft coverage. Think they're giving

859
00:40:38,440 --> 00:40:44,120
Speaker 1: up Their completion percentage allowed is ninetieth in the country. Well,

860
00:40:44,640 --> 00:40:47,839
Speaker 1: what does Purdue do short passes? They can eat all

861
00:40:47,920 --> 00:40:50,200
Speaker 1: day down the field. Now, Michigan State's ben don't break

862
00:40:50,239 --> 00:40:52,520
Speaker 1: and Purdue his trouble in the red zone because they

863
00:40:52,560 --> 00:40:55,959
Speaker 1: can't run the ball that could be a factor here.

864
00:40:56,440 --> 00:40:59,080
Speaker 1: But I'm getting three with the home team that I

865
00:40:59,120 --> 00:41:01,799
Speaker 1: think has some advantages on both sides of the ball

866
00:41:02,000 --> 00:41:04,560
Speaker 1: in a great spot. Give me the Boilers plus three.

867
00:41:04,880 --> 00:41:05,279
Speaker 1: Love it?

868
00:41:06,680 --> 00:41:08,560
Speaker 2: Yeah, well, I love it too.

869
00:41:08,600 --> 00:41:10,560
Speaker 4: The price point is what scares the hell out of me,

870
00:41:10,600 --> 00:41:12,400
Speaker 4: So I project this game at four. I got to

871
00:41:12,400 --> 00:41:14,040
Speaker 4: get out of my head with these numbers sometimes and

872
00:41:14,040 --> 00:41:14,600
Speaker 4: step back.

873
00:41:14,880 --> 00:41:16,040
Speaker 2: We've talked about this before.

874
00:41:16,080 --> 00:41:18,239
Speaker 4: You just if you're a math guy in your chain

875
00:41:18,320 --> 00:41:20,200
Speaker 4: to a spreadsheet, sometimes you got to step back and

876
00:41:20,239 --> 00:41:21,920
Speaker 4: take the temperature of the room. And I feel like

877
00:41:21,960 --> 00:41:24,359
Speaker 4: I need to do that with this Purdue team. Question

878
00:41:24,440 --> 00:41:27,520
Speaker 4: is can produce stop Kenneth Walker? The third produce forty

879
00:41:27,520 --> 00:41:29,640
Speaker 4: fourth and tackling. That means they can get them in space.

880
00:41:30,000 --> 00:41:32,480
Speaker 4: They're twenty six in defensive rushing success, right, they can

881
00:41:32,480 --> 00:41:35,200
Speaker 4: stop them at the line of scrimmage. Walker's rated. We

882
00:41:35,239 --> 00:41:37,600
Speaker 4: talked about elusive backs with Texas A and M having

883
00:41:37,600 --> 00:41:39,320
Speaker 4: two of them. Walker is the number one rate of

884
00:41:39,360 --> 00:41:42,160
Speaker 4: most elusive back in all of PFF's ratings. You just

885
00:41:42,160 --> 00:41:44,359
Speaker 4: can't bring them down. So you know, the boiler Makers

886
00:41:44,400 --> 00:41:47,480
Speaker 4: are a much better pass rush unit with George Calafts

887
00:41:47,840 --> 00:41:50,799
Speaker 4: they're tenth and Havoc, they're seventeenth in pass rush, so

888
00:41:50,920 --> 00:41:53,160
Speaker 4: Purdue is, you know, ninety third defensive stuff rate. So

889
00:41:53,160 --> 00:41:56,000
Speaker 4: I think Walker has a bigger chance of explosive plays

890
00:41:56,000 --> 00:41:58,680
Speaker 4: than Peyton Thorn throwing to Jayden Reed and Jalen Naylor.

891
00:41:59,080 --> 00:42:01,520
Speaker 4: And I think that's where the love this fascination with me.

892
00:42:01,760 --> 00:42:03,800
Speaker 1: I think Naylor's out. I think Nail's going to be out.

893
00:42:03,760 --> 00:42:04,279
Speaker 2: If he's out.

894
00:42:04,280 --> 00:42:06,160
Speaker 4: I mean that kind of brings this point to a head,

895
00:42:06,200 --> 00:42:08,400
Speaker 4: which is people are falling in love with the Spartans

896
00:42:08,440 --> 00:42:12,200
Speaker 4: because they love the explosive play. Michigan had explosive plays

897
00:42:12,239 --> 00:42:15,560
Speaker 4: and explosive drives and they're not an explosive team whatsoever.

898
00:42:15,680 --> 00:42:18,720
Speaker 4: Kate McNamara doubled the national average and explosive drives against

899
00:42:18,719 --> 00:42:21,240
Speaker 4: the Spartans defense. They averaged ten and a half yards

900
00:42:21,239 --> 00:42:24,600
Speaker 4: per play in passing downs Michigan did. Aidan O'Connell to

901
00:42:24,680 --> 00:42:27,799
Speaker 4: David Bell is like it's a real threat. I mean,

902
00:42:27,840 --> 00:42:29,879
Speaker 4: if Cave McNamara is averaging ten and a half yards

903
00:42:29,880 --> 00:42:31,719
Speaker 4: and passing downs, what's ad and O'Connell and David Bell

904
00:42:31,800 --> 00:42:34,440
Speaker 4: going to do? And you know, when you fall in

905
00:42:34,440 --> 00:42:38,120
Speaker 4: love with these explosive teams. I keep referencing this piece

906
00:42:38,160 --> 00:42:40,480
Speaker 4: that I wrote in the summer. You can't base you're

907
00:42:40,480 --> 00:42:43,160
Speaker 4: against the spread stuff on explosion teams that are explosive

908
00:42:43,719 --> 00:42:46,520
Speaker 4: or can stop explosive plays or have an explosive offense.

909
00:42:46,600 --> 00:42:49,520
Speaker 4: It's just there's no against the spread value. I'm with

910
00:42:49,640 --> 00:42:51,000
Speaker 4: you in this game. I don't know why.

911
00:42:51,040 --> 00:42:52,279
Speaker 2: I just can't lay it on the three.

912
00:42:52,320 --> 00:42:53,960
Speaker 4: It's just some sort of like I gotta step out

913
00:42:53,960 --> 00:42:56,160
Speaker 4: of the spreadsheet and just accept the fact that Purdue

914
00:42:56,239 --> 00:42:56,960
Speaker 4: is winning this game.

915
00:42:57,640 --> 00:43:00,200
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, I'm high on Purdue and lower Missigan

916
00:43:00,280 --> 00:43:02,239
Speaker 1: State then most. I mean I have this such as

917
00:43:02,280 --> 00:43:04,759
Speaker 1: like a pick, so I think we'due out right here.

918
00:43:04,800 --> 00:43:08,240
Speaker 1: Michigan State's luck is going to come to an end here.

919
00:43:08,440 --> 00:43:11,560
Speaker 1: And by the way, people saying in people are making

920
00:43:11,600 --> 00:43:13,840
Speaker 1: the dumbest arguments for who deserves to be in the

921
00:43:13,840 --> 00:43:15,719
Speaker 1: top four. It's like, well, Alabama should be in there

922
00:43:15,719 --> 00:43:18,160
Speaker 1: because they're the best team and they'd be fourteen point

923
00:43:18,160 --> 00:43:21,759
Speaker 1: favorites over Sinty. Well they probably wouldn't, but all right, well,

924
00:43:21,760 --> 00:43:23,840
Speaker 1: then why is Michigan State in there? They'd be fourteen

925
00:43:23,840 --> 00:43:27,200
Speaker 1: point underdogs to Ohio State. Yeah, they gotta love theologic

926
00:43:27,320 --> 00:43:29,080
Speaker 1: ar be consistent. All right, we're gonna putt the best team,

927
00:43:29,080 --> 00:43:31,319
Speaker 1: so who cares what happens. I only beef is with

928
00:43:31,400 --> 00:43:33,600
Speaker 1: Sincy getting shafted. This is the year that you'd want

929
00:43:33,640 --> 00:43:36,480
Speaker 1: a sinc the in and then Alabama's losses don't matter.

930
00:43:36,600 --> 00:43:39,799
Speaker 1: But anyway we'll catch the under eleven and a half

931
00:43:39,800 --> 00:43:41,319
Speaker 1: win total happily at the end of the year.

932
00:43:41,680 --> 00:43:42,000
Speaker 2: All right.

933
00:43:42,120 --> 00:43:44,800
Speaker 1: Moving on to the final Marque matchup of the weekend.

934
00:43:44,960 --> 00:43:49,080
Speaker 1: Undefeated wake Forest two and a half point underdog in

935
00:43:49,200 --> 00:43:52,040
Speaker 1: Chapel Hill against four and four North Carolina. Most people

936
00:43:52,040 --> 00:43:54,040
Speaker 1: thought those records that be flipped coming into the Sam

937
00:43:54,040 --> 00:43:58,160
Speaker 1: Hartman has been unbelievable. Wake Forest defense hasn't been that great.

938
00:43:58,520 --> 00:44:01,680
Speaker 1: They've had a couple of high wire skate facts against

939
00:44:02,400 --> 00:44:05,319
Speaker 1: Syracuse is the one that comes to mind about a

940
00:44:05,320 --> 00:44:08,400
Speaker 1: month ago. But they're still eight now. They're to control

941
00:44:08,400 --> 00:44:10,239
Speaker 1: of their own destiny. Maybe if they went out they

942
00:44:10,320 --> 00:44:12,359
Speaker 1: get into the college foot well. I need a lot

943
00:44:12,360 --> 00:44:14,840
Speaker 1: of help there. But you've got to love Sam Hartmon.

944
00:44:14,880 --> 00:44:17,520
Speaker 1: He's playing really well. Is this a good spot to buy?

945
00:44:17,760 --> 00:44:19,680
Speaker 1: You and c Low have been a really weird team

946
00:44:19,719 --> 00:44:23,080
Speaker 1: to figure out on a week to week basis been

947
00:44:23,200 --> 00:44:25,560
Speaker 1: very up and down. I'm sure they're going to be

948
00:44:25,640 --> 00:44:28,799
Speaker 1: really up for this game, and they're only like two

949
00:44:28,800 --> 00:44:30,760
Speaker 1: and a half at home. I mean this number before

950
00:44:30,800 --> 00:44:32,840
Speaker 1: the season would have been a lot higher. But the

951
00:44:32,840 --> 00:44:37,680
Speaker 1: wee because obviously exceeded expectations in North Carolina has been disappointing.

952
00:44:37,680 --> 00:44:38,319
Speaker 1: What do you see here?

953
00:44:38,560 --> 00:44:39,920
Speaker 2: Yeah, this was a game. I was shocked.

954
00:44:39,960 --> 00:44:41,520
Speaker 4: I mean when I did the numbers on Sunday and

955
00:44:41,560 --> 00:44:44,399
Speaker 4: it came out, I had this North Carolina minus five

956
00:44:44,400 --> 00:44:46,200
Speaker 4: and a half in the Action Network power ratings, I

957
00:44:46,320 --> 00:44:48,840
Speaker 4: was just like, wait a minute, this can't be correct.

958
00:44:49,160 --> 00:44:51,680
Speaker 4: And I think sometime on Sunday night I noticed that

959
00:44:51,800 --> 00:44:56,040
Speaker 4: SP plus makes this game North Carolina minus four. So

960
00:44:56,160 --> 00:44:58,600
Speaker 4: I mean, if you trust our two power rating systems,

961
00:44:59,040 --> 00:45:01,359
Speaker 4: North Carolina is the play without even staring at it.

962
00:45:01,400 --> 00:45:03,520
Speaker 4: So you know, the total I make about seventy three.

963
00:45:03,600 --> 00:45:04,520
Speaker 4: That thing's up there in the.

964
00:45:04,440 --> 00:45:06,480
Speaker 1: Seventh seventy seven.

965
00:45:06,760 --> 00:45:08,200
Speaker 4: I mean it's going to be a Mac game, right,

966
00:45:08,280 --> 00:45:11,799
Speaker 4: So I don't know that the market is screaming right now.

967
00:45:11,960 --> 00:45:13,360
Speaker 2: UNC minus two and a half.

968
00:45:13,480 --> 00:45:15,680
Speaker 4: A lot of tickets coming in, but the bigger handle

969
00:45:15,719 --> 00:45:17,400
Speaker 4: is coming in on North Carolina. I think a lot

970
00:45:17,440 --> 00:45:20,080
Speaker 4: of sharp Money likes North Carolina because the question is

971
00:45:20,400 --> 00:45:23,200
Speaker 4: have they found their legs on offense. It's been a

972
00:45:23,239 --> 00:45:26,600
Speaker 4: one loss, one wins schedule since mid September.

973
00:45:26,640 --> 00:45:28,359
Speaker 2: Win one, lose one, win one, lose one. But the

974
00:45:28,400 --> 00:45:31,560
Speaker 2: Heels are running the ball exceptionally well as of late

975
00:45:32,040 --> 00:45:34,680
Speaker 2: sixty three percent success rate running in the loss against

976
00:45:34,719 --> 00:45:37,680
Speaker 2: Notre Dame. On the season, there's sixty one percent success

977
00:45:37,760 --> 00:45:40,840
Speaker 2: rate on the ground, averaging six point four yards per play.

978
00:45:41,120 --> 00:45:42,480
Speaker 2: That is huge.

979
00:45:42,280 --> 00:45:45,080
Speaker 4: Numbers on the ground. That's an issue for wake Forest.

980
00:45:45,239 --> 00:45:48,000
Speaker 4: We that was the anticap with Army. Wake Forest can't

981
00:45:48,040 --> 00:45:50,800
Speaker 4: defend the run one hundred and twentieth in the line yards.

982
00:45:51,080 --> 00:45:54,000
Speaker 4: You know, there's a success rate through the air, against

983
00:45:54,040 --> 00:45:56,680
Speaker 4: the pass and against the rush is dreadful. I mean,

984
00:45:56,680 --> 00:45:58,399
Speaker 4: if they make the college football playoff, it's going.

985
00:45:58,320 --> 00:45:58,880
Speaker 2: To be gross.

986
00:45:59,239 --> 00:46:02,440
Speaker 4: UNC can expose they're thirty fifth in offensive finishing drives.

987
00:46:02,480 --> 00:46:03,600
Speaker 2: They can move the ball.

988
00:46:03,800 --> 00:46:07,480
Speaker 4: They could score six every time. Now what's not positive

989
00:46:07,560 --> 00:46:09,799
Speaker 4: is this UNC defense is holding Wake from scoring on

990
00:46:09,880 --> 00:46:12,799
Speaker 4: every drive. UNC allowed forty four points to Notre Dame.

991
00:46:12,840 --> 00:46:15,319
Speaker 4: We've said enough about their offense. They allowed forty two

992
00:46:15,360 --> 00:46:18,480
Speaker 4: to Miami. The Tyler Van Dyke Special thirty five to

993
00:46:18,520 --> 00:46:21,759
Speaker 4: Florida State in recent games. So I mean UNC is

994
00:46:21,800 --> 00:46:24,359
Speaker 4: the play for the simple fact that a the power

995
00:46:24,440 --> 00:46:28,240
Speaker 4: rating indicates it, be the market value indicates it. See

996
00:46:28,680 --> 00:46:30,680
Speaker 4: there's an element that North Carolina can run the ball

997
00:46:30,800 --> 00:46:33,160
Speaker 4: control the clock. Now, I'm not saying Phil Longo is

998
00:46:33,160 --> 00:46:35,800
Speaker 4: trying to like give up tempo and train clock.

999
00:46:35,840 --> 00:46:37,319
Speaker 2: I've never seen Phil Longo do that.

1000
00:46:37,360 --> 00:46:40,040
Speaker 4: But if you're not laying UNC minus two and a half,

1001
00:46:40,280 --> 00:46:43,120
Speaker 4: we're taking the money line. This could be the greatest

1002
00:46:43,160 --> 00:46:45,600
Speaker 4: live trading game of the day, similar to Kenton Northern

1003
00:46:45,640 --> 00:46:47,880
Speaker 4: Illinois last night. I mean, you know the score is

1004
00:46:47,880 --> 00:46:49,200
Speaker 4: going to be up that high. It's a great live

1005
00:46:49,239 --> 00:46:49,839
Speaker 4: trading game.

1006
00:46:50,480 --> 00:46:51,840
Speaker 1: That's what I was gonna say. Whoever you like in

1007
00:46:51,840 --> 00:46:53,000
Speaker 1: the side, or if you just want to trade it,

1008
00:46:53,040 --> 00:46:56,120
Speaker 1: just wait live. There's gonna be a four points, but

1009
00:46:56,640 --> 00:46:59,600
Speaker 1: should be a very entertaining game between two excellent quarterbacks.

1010
00:47:00,480 --> 00:47:04,160
Speaker 1: That'll wrap up our marquee matchups of the weekend. Great

1011
00:47:04,200 --> 00:47:07,600
Speaker 1: stuff there, Let's move on to the rundown. Let's bring

1012
00:47:07,640 --> 00:47:11,560
Speaker 1: in a couple other games here. Let's go back and forth.

1013
00:47:12,360 --> 00:47:13,880
Speaker 1: I can bring up one, you can bring up one.

1014
00:47:13,960 --> 00:47:16,400
Speaker 1: I'll start with one. I think you'll agree with on

1015
00:47:16,520 --> 00:47:19,600
Speaker 1: with Tennessee played some Tennessee plus one, like them to

1016
00:47:19,719 --> 00:47:22,560
Speaker 1: minus one after making some adjustments this week and for

1017
00:47:22,600 --> 00:47:28,919
Speaker 1: the spot that actually make this tat over Tennessee minus three. Kentucky. Look,

1018
00:47:28,960 --> 00:47:32,800
Speaker 1: they left Lexington undefeated in charge of their own destiny

1019
00:47:32,800 --> 00:47:35,240
Speaker 1: in the SEC and COSMO Playoff. They lost to Georgia.

1020
00:47:35,560 --> 00:47:37,560
Speaker 1: Then they go to Mississippi State, they lose that. They

1021
00:47:37,600 --> 00:47:39,759
Speaker 1: come back with two losses. Me while Tennessee's off a bye,

1022
00:47:40,040 --> 00:47:42,759
Speaker 1: they're looking to avenge a loss from last year, an

1023
00:47:42,760 --> 00:47:45,800
Speaker 1: embarrassing home loss to Kentucky. They got healthier, hookers healthier

1024
00:47:45,800 --> 00:47:49,080
Speaker 1: now and Kentucky is just beat up. I mean Chris Rodriguez,

1025
00:47:49,080 --> 00:47:52,080
Speaker 1: who's the straw that starts to drink for their offense.

1026
00:47:52,120 --> 00:47:54,719
Speaker 1: He's hurt. You have two couldn't even hold onto the

1027
00:47:54,760 --> 00:47:58,800
Speaker 1: ball last week. McCall there other defensive tackle still is

1028
00:47:58,840 --> 00:48:01,400
Speaker 1: not ready to come back. They already lost one of

1029
00:48:01,400 --> 00:48:03,400
Speaker 1: their other best defensive tackles for the season. They had

1030
00:48:03,400 --> 00:48:06,720
Speaker 1: a linebacker a corner leave the game last week. They're

1031
00:48:06,760 --> 00:48:09,360
Speaker 1: just really beat up across the board. For one of

1032
00:48:09,360 --> 00:48:11,520
Speaker 1: their best offensive linemen left went to the locker room

1033
00:48:11,560 --> 00:48:15,520
Speaker 1: Darren Rosenthal. It's just a beat up unit. Tennessee's much fresher,

1034
00:48:15,640 --> 00:48:18,640
Speaker 1: much healthier because the defensive tackle in Truce. The Kentucky

1035
00:48:18,719 --> 00:48:21,959
Speaker 1: run defense has been slipping. The pass defense isn't great.

1036
00:48:22,320 --> 00:48:25,680
Speaker 1: Hooker can take advantage of that. I think Tennessee pulls

1037
00:48:25,680 --> 00:48:26,319
Speaker 1: out a win here.

1038
00:48:26,800 --> 00:48:29,080
Speaker 2: Yeah, bowls out right in this game.

1039
00:48:29,320 --> 00:48:31,520
Speaker 4: I saw I missed the three, so I said, you know,

1040
00:48:31,520 --> 00:48:33,279
Speaker 4: I'm just gonna take money line early in the week.

1041
00:48:33,320 --> 00:48:35,760
Speaker 4: I think they win this game. Injuries on the roster

1042
00:48:35,880 --> 00:48:38,200
Speaker 4: for Kentucky. This is sort of a revenge spot for

1043
00:48:38,239 --> 00:48:40,920
Speaker 4: some of the players on the Tennessee team, although I

1044
00:48:40,920 --> 00:48:42,759
Speaker 4: think the entire team is in the transfer portal. But

1045
00:48:43,360 --> 00:48:45,600
Speaker 4: you know, the Wildcats want to run the game, want

1046
00:48:45,640 --> 00:48:47,840
Speaker 4: to run the entire game and drank clock. But you know,

1047
00:48:48,000 --> 00:48:50,880
Speaker 4: Hooker and josh Hipel's fastest offense in the nation. On

1048
00:48:50,920 --> 00:48:54,680
Speaker 4: the field, the offensive line has gotten healthy. Kentucky's one

1049
00:48:54,760 --> 00:48:57,480
Speaker 4: hundred and twenty fourth in defensive passing success rate. Mississippi

1050
00:48:57,480 --> 00:49:00,480
Speaker 4: State took advantage of that best bet last week one.

1051
00:49:01,280 --> 00:49:04,200
Speaker 4: You know, Tennessee had issues with protection, but Kentucky pass

1052
00:49:04,239 --> 00:49:06,920
Speaker 4: rush is just not there. Like you said, you know,

1053
00:49:07,000 --> 00:49:09,719
Speaker 4: no explosive plays, but opponents are moving the chains all

1054
00:49:09,840 --> 00:49:12,880
Speaker 4: day against Kentucky's defense. That's a bad combination against a

1055
00:49:12,920 --> 00:49:15,560
Speaker 4: Tennessee team that excels in finishing drives.

1056
00:49:16,040 --> 00:49:18,560
Speaker 2: I'm with you, Bowls. I love these SEC teams off

1057
00:49:18,600 --> 00:49:19,560
Speaker 2: of by Yeah, I.

1058
00:49:19,520 --> 00:49:22,279
Speaker 1: Think Tennessee is still not being properly accounted for in

1059
00:49:22,320 --> 00:49:25,080
Speaker 1: the market with Hooker, some of their numbers are depressed

1060
00:49:25,080 --> 00:49:27,799
Speaker 1: when they had Milton in there. Another game, I'm good.

1061
00:49:27,840 --> 00:49:29,440
Speaker 1: I think I'm gonna end up playing this game. This

1062
00:49:29,480 --> 00:49:31,480
Speaker 1: is dicey, but I think I'm going to play Nebraska

1063
00:49:31,680 --> 00:49:36,360
Speaker 1: plus fifteen against Ohio State. Nebraska is a very odd team,

1064
00:49:36,480 --> 00:49:38,480
Speaker 1: but you cannot back them as a favorite. They still

1065
00:49:38,480 --> 00:49:41,000
Speaker 1: continue to make mistakes and turn it over and find

1066
00:49:41,040 --> 00:49:44,400
Speaker 1: ways to lose games. But they are a very good underdog.

1067
00:49:44,719 --> 00:49:47,279
Speaker 1: They can they have great players on defense, they can

1068
00:49:47,320 --> 00:49:49,920
Speaker 1: move the ball on offense. They're three and o's against

1069
00:49:49,960 --> 00:49:52,080
Speaker 1: the spread as an underdog this year. Could have won

1070
00:49:52,120 --> 00:49:54,279
Speaker 1: all three games against three teams that are now in

1071
00:49:54,320 --> 00:49:56,360
Speaker 1: the top eight of the College Wall playw two of

1072
00:49:56,360 --> 00:49:59,279
Speaker 1: them on the road, hung with Oklahoma and Norman till

1073
00:49:59,280 --> 00:50:02,640
Speaker 1: the end. Would have beat Michigan State, should have beat

1074
00:50:02,760 --> 00:50:06,040
Speaker 1: Michigan give me fourteen and a half here for their

1075
00:50:06,160 --> 00:50:09,160
Speaker 1: super Bowl. This is their super Bowl. Now need to

1076
00:50:09,200 --> 00:50:12,680
Speaker 1: win for BAWL eligibility can ruin Ohio State season. They've

1077
00:50:12,719 --> 00:50:15,040
Speaker 1: lost three straight. They could have won all three of

1078
00:50:15,040 --> 00:50:17,160
Speaker 1: those games, by the way, just what Nebraska does. But

1079
00:50:17,320 --> 00:50:19,759
Speaker 1: over two touchdowns. I think that's like this is when

1080
00:50:19,760 --> 00:50:22,200
Speaker 1: you play this Nebraska team. And what do we learned

1081
00:50:22,280 --> 00:50:25,920
Speaker 1: last week? Ohio State made the play calling change. We said, Okay,

1082
00:50:26,120 --> 00:50:27,760
Speaker 1: we haven't really been able to see if the defense

1083
00:50:27,840 --> 00:50:30,640
Speaker 1: is not improved because they were playing cupcakes and they

1084
00:50:30,680 --> 00:50:33,560
Speaker 1: played Indiana's four string quarterback. Well, we saw last week

1085
00:50:33,920 --> 00:50:36,239
Speaker 1: the past defense is still bad. Penn State was the

1086
00:50:36,360 --> 00:50:39,279
Speaker 1: four hundreds, passing eleven of sixteen on third down. You

1087
00:50:39,280 --> 00:50:41,280
Speaker 1: could still move the ball in this Ohio State defense.

1088
00:50:41,600 --> 00:50:43,040
Speaker 1: I think this is a touch high. I need over

1089
00:50:43,080 --> 00:50:45,880
Speaker 1: two touchdowns. But I think it's a good spot for Nebraska.

1090
00:50:45,920 --> 00:50:47,400
Speaker 1: And it's just an odd team. Don't never take them

1091
00:50:47,440 --> 00:50:50,080
Speaker 1: as a favorite. Only back there as a dog and

1092
00:50:50,360 --> 00:50:52,319
Speaker 1: maybe they do to not make mistakes. But I'm gonna

1093
00:50:52,320 --> 00:50:53,279
Speaker 1: be playing Nebraska here.

1094
00:50:53,440 --> 00:50:56,200
Speaker 4: Nebraska six losses on the season by a combined thirty

1095
00:50:56,200 --> 00:50:58,480
Speaker 4: three points. That tells you the covering fourteen and.

1096
00:50:58,400 --> 00:50:59,800
Speaker 1: A half everyone by one possession.

1097
00:51:00,160 --> 00:51:02,960
Speaker 4: Yeah, it tells you that the I mean, this shouldn't

1098
00:51:02,960 --> 00:51:05,520
Speaker 4: be an issue covering this kind of spread. And if

1099
00:51:05,520 --> 00:51:07,880
Speaker 4: you believe that Adrian Martinez gon to expose a defense

1100
00:51:07,880 --> 00:51:10,200
Speaker 4: for the Buckeyes at seventy third coverage and one hundred

1101
00:51:10,200 --> 00:51:13,520
Speaker 4: and eleventh and passing down success rate, Nebraska's going to

1102
00:51:13,560 --> 00:51:15,840
Speaker 4: move the ball when they get behind schedule. If you

1103
00:51:15,920 --> 00:51:19,000
Speaker 4: invest in Nebraska, you have to worry about the Buckeyes

1104
00:51:19,080 --> 00:51:21,280
Speaker 4: ranking of eighth and defensive havoc.

1105
00:51:21,320 --> 00:51:23,040
Speaker 2: And that's where I get a little tentative stuck.

1106
00:51:23,080 --> 00:51:25,400
Speaker 4: I mean, just taking the ball away from Martinez has

1107
00:51:25,440 --> 00:51:26,439
Speaker 4: been too easy this year.

1108
00:51:26,800 --> 00:51:29,400
Speaker 2: Four offensive turnovers last week against Purdue.

1109
00:51:29,520 --> 00:51:30,600
Speaker 4: I'm not going to get in the way of the

1110
00:51:30,600 --> 00:51:32,560
Speaker 4: Buckeye seam that's going to try to get in the

1111
00:51:32,600 --> 00:51:34,399
Speaker 4: top four of the college ball playoff. But you're right,

1112
00:51:34,440 --> 00:51:38,080
Speaker 4: this is Scott Frost absolutely making an exit from Nebraska

1113
00:51:38,120 --> 00:51:40,440
Speaker 4: with a loss here. They already have six losses. Is

1114
00:51:40,520 --> 00:51:43,920
Speaker 4: to put them at seven. No postseason, Nebraska is going

1115
00:51:43,960 --> 00:51:47,000
Speaker 4: to play all out. I think possibly this might be

1116
00:51:47,080 --> 00:51:49,239
Speaker 4: a first half play for me on Nebraska, and maybe

1117
00:51:49,239 --> 00:51:51,280
Speaker 4: a money line play I agree with you that Nebraska

1118
00:51:51,400 --> 00:51:54,520
Speaker 4: is a side and they've choked Layton games huge spread.

1119
00:51:54,840 --> 00:51:56,320
Speaker 2: You can't handicap.

1120
00:51:55,840 --> 00:51:57,920
Speaker 4: Injuries and turnovers, and that has just been the hardest

1121
00:51:57,960 --> 00:51:59,560
Speaker 4: thing with Adrian Martinez all these years.

1122
00:52:00,040 --> 00:52:01,600
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, but you also say, Hi, this a

1123
00:52:01,719 --> 00:52:03,919
Speaker 1: noon kick for a state off the pen. You say

1124
00:52:03,920 --> 00:52:05,200
Speaker 1: they want to get into the top four of the

1125
00:52:05,239 --> 00:52:07,000
Speaker 1: College I think they know that if they just went out,

1126
00:52:07,000 --> 00:52:09,200
Speaker 1: they're in. I mean, Michigan State's out of them and

1127
00:52:09,200 --> 00:52:10,480
Speaker 1: they're going to play them, and if they win the

1128
00:52:10,480 --> 00:52:14,200
Speaker 1: Big Ten, they're in. So I don't think Ohio State's

1129
00:52:14,200 --> 00:52:15,920
Speaker 1: worried about running it up. They're going to get or

1130
00:52:16,080 --> 00:52:18,120
Speaker 1: to take a loss if Oregon in both and then

1131
00:52:18,160 --> 00:52:19,680
Speaker 1: when out they're both get to get in. I think.

1132
00:52:19,719 --> 00:52:21,879
Speaker 1: So I don't think that that's not too worried about it.

1133
00:52:22,080 --> 00:52:27,879
Speaker 1: All right, LSU Alabama here, who cares? No players left?

1134
00:52:27,920 --> 00:52:29,800
Speaker 1: I mean, I can't believe it saying about LSU Albama

1135
00:52:29,880 --> 00:52:31,360
Speaker 1: and Alabama's minus twenty and a half. I think it

1136
00:52:31,400 --> 00:52:34,000
Speaker 1: make it like twenty six. But I'm not betting LSU.

1137
00:52:34,160 --> 00:52:36,360
Speaker 1: I leaned the under. Maybe I'll play the under here

1138
00:52:36,440 --> 00:52:38,600
Speaker 1: under sixty seven. I think it's a touch high. But

1139
00:52:39,320 --> 00:52:41,400
Speaker 1: you know, Alabama's not explosive, but they're probably going to

1140
00:52:41,440 --> 00:52:45,120
Speaker 1: score most drives just marching it down the field. What

1141
00:52:45,120 --> 00:52:46,640
Speaker 1: are you going to get from LSU? Though they don't

1142
00:52:46,680 --> 00:52:48,640
Speaker 1: they can't run it, so I mean, are they throwing

1143
00:52:48,680 --> 00:52:50,160
Speaker 1: picks and just throwing it off the field. That's a

1144
00:52:50,200 --> 00:52:52,600
Speaker 1: scary part about the under I mean makes sense of

1145
00:52:52,640 --> 00:52:52,919
Speaker 1: this game.

1146
00:52:52,920 --> 00:52:55,440
Speaker 4: I got nothing here and I project BAMA minus twenty

1147
00:52:55,440 --> 00:52:57,719
Speaker 4: four and the injuries on the LSU defense and the

1148
00:52:57,719 --> 00:53:00,760
Speaker 4: possibility of Doug Neusmeyer getting more snaps from Max Johnson,

1149
00:53:01,120 --> 00:53:03,719
Speaker 4: you know, is maybe what's beefing this lineup a little bit.

1150
00:53:04,080 --> 00:53:06,000
Speaker 4: Or the fact that Saban just has an axe to

1151
00:53:06,040 --> 00:53:08,680
Speaker 4: guard against Coach O after the twenty nineteen season and

1152
00:53:08,680 --> 00:53:10,759
Speaker 4: the Joe Burrow perfection just wants to rub it in.

1153
00:53:10,800 --> 00:53:13,720
Speaker 4: But you know, Doug Neusemeyer getting more snaps the freshman

1154
00:53:14,040 --> 00:53:17,280
Speaker 4: is likely because they don't want him to transfer.

1155
00:53:17,400 --> 00:53:19,200
Speaker 2: Now I'm not sure whose call that is, that's Coach

1156
00:53:19,200 --> 00:53:22,160
Speaker 2: O's call or what, But new Smeyer got some plays

1157
00:53:22,160 --> 00:53:22,759
Speaker 2: in last week.

1158
00:53:22,840 --> 00:53:24,920
Speaker 4: Now he's got a cannon for an arm, but he's wild,

1159
00:53:25,000 --> 00:53:27,120
Speaker 4: like he'll try to throw it into windows. Brett Favre

1160
00:53:27,200 --> 00:53:30,200
Speaker 4: style that you know, it's just not there, so we'll see,

1161
00:53:30,280 --> 00:53:33,440
Speaker 4: you know what Alabama can do with that. But you know,

1162
00:53:33,520 --> 00:53:36,920
Speaker 4: Saban off the by focusing on two different areas of explosiveness.

1163
00:53:36,960 --> 00:53:39,000
Speaker 4: The defense is fifth in line yards and.

1164
00:53:38,960 --> 00:53:40,480
Speaker 2: That's good enough to stop the LC rush.

1165
00:53:40,520 --> 00:53:43,640
Speaker 4: Defense that awakened against Florida kind of went dormant again.

1166
00:53:43,960 --> 00:53:47,000
Speaker 4: Saban mentioned that the deep ball is getting focused now.

1167
00:53:47,120 --> 00:53:50,200
Speaker 4: In practice, Bryce Young has been limited in deep passing.

1168
00:53:50,200 --> 00:53:53,520
Speaker 4: I believe Stuckie calls him Captain check down. Some of

1169
00:53:53,560 --> 00:53:56,600
Speaker 4: that is a pass blocking rate of sixtieth. If LSU

1170
00:53:56,800 --> 00:53:59,400
Speaker 4: can get a pass rush off of a depleted defensive line,

1171
00:54:00,040 --> 00:54:01,840
Speaker 4: you know Young will start to look downfield instead of

1172
00:54:01,880 --> 00:54:05,239
Speaker 4: checking down to Mechi or Williams. But Sabin made it

1173
00:54:05,280 --> 00:54:07,160
Speaker 4: a point in his press conference. It's time for us

1174
00:54:07,239 --> 00:54:10,080
Speaker 4: to start throwing downfield, and I want that to be

1175
00:54:10,120 --> 00:54:13,000
Speaker 4: a part an element of our offense. Bama's fourth and

1176
00:54:13,040 --> 00:54:16,760
Speaker 4: offensive finishing drives LSU defensively outside the top one hundred.

1177
00:54:16,760 --> 00:54:19,359
Speaker 4: That defense will let anybody score a touchdown. I don't

1178
00:54:19,360 --> 00:54:22,719
Speaker 4: think Saban has forgotten twenty nineteen. I know you would

1179
00:54:22,800 --> 00:54:25,279
Speaker 4: like to some kind of way extract something out of

1180
00:54:25,320 --> 00:54:26,640
Speaker 4: this pipe that's not there.

1181
00:54:26,800 --> 00:54:27,520
Speaker 1: It's not there.

1182
00:54:28,040 --> 00:54:31,120
Speaker 2: You all speculate and create things, and then you want

1183
00:54:31,160 --> 00:54:34,719
Speaker 2: people to respond to it. Team total over first half over,

1184
00:54:35,160 --> 00:54:37,319
Speaker 2: especially with Sabin coming out and saying that the deep

1185
00:54:37,320 --> 00:54:39,040
Speaker 2: pass needs to be a part of our repertoire and

1186
00:54:39,080 --> 00:54:40,160
Speaker 2: we need to start working on that.

1187
00:54:40,640 --> 00:54:41,880
Speaker 1: Why did you push yourself?

1188
00:54:42,040 --> 00:54:44,560
Speaker 4: I think who it is bad to be an LSU team.

1189
00:54:44,600 --> 00:54:46,319
Speaker 4: So give me some overs, give me some Bama team

1190
00:54:46,320 --> 00:54:47,080
Speaker 4: totals overs.

1191
00:54:47,320 --> 00:54:51,120
Speaker 1: An awful matchup. By the way, we've gotten you've already

1192
00:54:51,120 --> 00:54:54,640
Speaker 1: talked to Arkansas hoops. We haven't talked to Arkansas football

1193
00:54:54,680 --> 00:54:56,600
Speaker 1: off of a by five and a half point favorite

1194
00:54:56,640 --> 00:55:00,440
Speaker 1: at home against Leech and Will Rodgers, who was rolling

1195
00:55:01,080 --> 00:55:04,600
Speaker 1: thirty eight or forty one against Kentucky. Anything on your

1196
00:55:04,600 --> 00:55:08,280
Speaker 1: Hogs and mistake woo pig Sully.

1197
00:55:08,800 --> 00:55:10,319
Speaker 2: I haven't made a play yet. I mean, there's one

1198
00:55:10,320 --> 00:55:12,640
Speaker 2: thing that really bothers me about the razorbacks. You know

1199
00:55:12,680 --> 00:55:14,880
Speaker 2: they're coming off of bye. I projected minus eight in

1200
00:55:14,920 --> 00:55:15,200
Speaker 2: this game.

1201
00:55:15,239 --> 00:55:17,359
Speaker 4: I should give value on what's a dead number right

1202
00:55:17,400 --> 00:55:20,400
Speaker 4: now in the market total of fifty two. The number

1203
00:55:20,440 --> 00:55:23,560
Speaker 4: on the board is higher than that. I really wanted

1204
00:55:23,560 --> 00:55:25,879
Speaker 4: to get an over on this game. And the big

1205
00:55:25,920 --> 00:55:29,440
Speaker 4: reason for that is that our star safety Jaalen Catalog

1206
00:55:29,560 --> 00:55:30,240
Speaker 4: he's out.

1207
00:55:30,080 --> 00:55:31,200
Speaker 2: With his shoulder for the year.

1208
00:55:31,520 --> 00:55:34,960
Speaker 4: Yeah, and that is a monster loss because Miles Slusher

1209
00:55:35,000 --> 00:55:36,960
Speaker 4: is going to come in and step in. He is

1210
00:55:37,000 --> 00:55:40,239
Speaker 4: not near the vocal captain in the secondary of the

1211
00:55:40,280 --> 00:55:44,319
Speaker 4: catalan Is and that gives me pause against a Mississippi

1212
00:55:44,360 --> 00:55:48,080
Speaker 4: State dink and dunk offense that Will Rogers just going

1213
00:55:48,160 --> 00:55:49,239
Speaker 4: to throw on all day.

1214
00:55:49,480 --> 00:55:49,680
Speaker 1: Now.

1215
00:55:49,719 --> 00:55:52,239
Speaker 4: Barry Odom was given credit for the whole rush three

1216
00:55:52,360 --> 00:55:55,239
Speaker 4: drop eight. I think Leech has seen it enough. They

1217
00:55:55,239 --> 00:55:57,720
Speaker 4: know how to attack that. And the question is is

1218
00:55:58,000 --> 00:56:00,000
Speaker 4: Ridgeway and Trey Williams.

1219
00:55:59,880 --> 00:56:01,319
Speaker 1: With Kentucky and just shredded it.

1220
00:56:01,440 --> 00:56:04,439
Speaker 2: Yeah, they shredded it and Ridgeway and Trey Williams trying

1221
00:56:04,440 --> 00:56:05,120
Speaker 2: to get pressure.

1222
00:56:05,360 --> 00:56:08,640
Speaker 4: This is not last season where Bo Polini in the

1223
00:56:08,680 --> 00:56:11,279
Speaker 4: opening game, Bo Polini for LSU decided to stay in

1224
00:56:11,400 --> 00:56:13,560
Speaker 4: man and allow the air raid to tear him apart.

1225
00:56:14,000 --> 00:56:17,880
Speaker 4: And then Arkansas ran this you know, rush three and

1226
00:56:18,360 --> 00:56:20,200
Speaker 4: just tore you know, Costello up.

1227
00:56:20,600 --> 00:56:21,240
Speaker 2: This is different.

1228
00:56:21,280 --> 00:56:25,719
Speaker 4: This Mississippi State offensive line is protecting Will Rogers really well.

1229
00:56:25,760 --> 00:56:28,240
Speaker 4: That air raid is running to perfection. I'm a little

1230
00:56:28,280 --> 00:56:32,279
Speaker 4: tentative without Jalen Catalan in that secondary against Mississippi State.

1231
00:56:32,719 --> 00:56:34,320
Speaker 4: If Arkansas is going to score, it's not going to

1232
00:56:34,360 --> 00:56:36,520
Speaker 4: be on the ground. I want the over coming off

1233
00:56:36,560 --> 00:56:39,200
Speaker 4: of a bye but Mississippi State isn't exactly explosive. But

1234
00:56:39,280 --> 00:56:41,880
Speaker 4: Jalen Catalan is in there. So you know, keep your

1235
00:56:41,880 --> 00:56:44,520
Speaker 4: eyes on the app. I'm either going to back Arkansas

1236
00:56:44,640 --> 00:56:46,560
Speaker 4: or I'm going to back an over. Could be split

1237
00:56:46,560 --> 00:56:48,040
Speaker 4: for staff, could be full game. I said, just keep

1238
00:56:48,040 --> 00:56:50,319
Speaker 4: your eyes over. But the Catalan thing really bothers me

1239
00:56:50,360 --> 00:56:53,440
Speaker 4: when backing Arkansas because we saw this last year. Bumperpool

1240
00:56:53,480 --> 00:56:55,520
Speaker 4: went out, Grant Morgan went out, and all of a sudden,

1241
00:56:55,560 --> 00:56:57,680
Speaker 4: every team put a fifty burger up on Arkansas.

1242
00:56:57,719 --> 00:56:58,960
Speaker 2: So it gives me a little pause.

1243
00:56:59,400 --> 00:57:01,480
Speaker 1: By the way, we have to talk about the Super Bowl,

1244
00:57:01,560 --> 00:57:02,600
Speaker 1: the best game on the board.

1245
00:57:03,239 --> 00:57:07,880
Speaker 3: We're talking minor nation out in the West Texans town

1246
00:57:07,960 --> 00:57:08,840
Speaker 3: of l past So.

1247
00:57:10,320 --> 00:57:10,920
Speaker 2: Picks up.

1248
00:57:11,800 --> 00:57:14,920
Speaker 1: Everyone's talking about LSU Alabama at night. Who cares? We

1249
00:57:14,960 --> 00:57:19,640
Speaker 1: have UTSA at utep Utip is an eleven point home

1250
00:57:19,800 --> 00:57:22,880
Speaker 1: dog over under sending fifty one to fifty two range.

1251
00:57:23,320 --> 00:57:25,360
Speaker 1: What do you got here for the game of the weekend.

1252
00:57:25,680 --> 00:57:27,560
Speaker 4: We have to pick one of our favorite children, right

1253
00:57:27,880 --> 00:57:32,600
Speaker 4: that me versus Pizza Party stuck.

1254
00:57:32,640 --> 00:57:33,680
Speaker 2: I don't know, I don't know.

1255
00:57:33,960 --> 00:57:36,040
Speaker 4: You and I have been celebrating the life of the

1256
00:57:36,120 --> 00:57:40,920
Speaker 4: road Rudders since they became FBS members, and we have

1257
00:57:41,120 --> 00:57:46,000
Speaker 4: nurtured UTEP from multiple winless seasons up into this juggernaut

1258
00:57:46,000 --> 00:57:47,800
Speaker 4: of a bull team that they've turned into it. Now

1259
00:57:47,800 --> 00:57:50,920
Speaker 4: we have to divide and pick one. How pissed off

1260
00:57:50,960 --> 00:57:52,960
Speaker 4: is UTSA after the college football playoffs?

1261
00:57:53,040 --> 00:57:54,200
Speaker 2: No, we don't know.

1262
00:57:54,360 --> 00:57:56,360
Speaker 4: You know, Trailer is a great coach. He got his

1263
00:57:56,480 --> 00:57:59,240
Speaker 4: contract renewed. It's gonna be pretty expensive for a POWERFI

1264
00:57:59,320 --> 00:58:01,440
Speaker 4: program to come and pick him off as a head coach.

1265
00:58:02,200 --> 00:58:04,360
Speaker 4: UTSA has the same goal every game. They want to

1266
00:58:04,440 --> 00:58:07,000
Speaker 4: run it down people's throat fifty eight percent rush rate,

1267
00:58:07,240 --> 00:58:09,080
Speaker 4: not the best success rate in the world, but they're

1268
00:58:09,120 --> 00:58:12,160
Speaker 4: fourteenth and havoc allowed. They don't make mistakes. They're thirty

1269
00:58:12,160 --> 00:58:14,360
Speaker 4: first in lineyards. They can move the ball and standard down,

1270
00:58:14,440 --> 00:58:17,960
Speaker 4: stay on schedule. They've been excellent passing downs. Frank Harris

1271
00:58:18,200 --> 00:58:22,680
Speaker 4: at quarterback. Their sixteenth and passing down success rate, you know,

1272
00:58:22,680 --> 00:58:26,080
Speaker 4: their top twenty and passing success rate. They're just everything

1273
00:58:26,160 --> 00:58:29,280
Speaker 4: moves with this offense, and that is a big achilles

1274
00:58:29,320 --> 00:58:32,120
Speaker 4: heel to what is an outstanding UTEP defense. They have

1275
00:58:32,120 --> 00:58:35,400
Speaker 4: a coverage drink of seventy first and UTEP's ninety fifth

1276
00:58:35,400 --> 00:58:38,640
Speaker 4: against the explosive pass. So I want to make a

1277
00:58:38,640 --> 00:58:41,520
Speaker 4: case for UTEP. I mean, the biggest issue backing UTEP

1278
00:58:41,600 --> 00:58:44,680
Speaker 4: in this game is their strength of record. That reflects

1279
00:58:44,680 --> 00:58:46,800
Speaker 4: the chance that an average top twenty five team would

1280
00:58:46,840 --> 00:58:52,080
Speaker 4: have the same record or better. UTSA eleventh and strength

1281
00:58:52,120 --> 00:58:55,600
Speaker 4: of record UTEP one hundred and seventeenth. So when I

1282
00:58:55,640 --> 00:58:58,160
Speaker 4: look at these UTEP defensive numbers, I love you Minor Nation,

1283
00:58:58,720 --> 00:59:01,560
Speaker 4: but you put these up against Mtthune Cookman who put

1284
00:59:01,600 --> 00:59:03,840
Speaker 4: up twenty eight, Boise State who put up fifty four.

1285
00:59:04,320 --> 00:59:08,240
Speaker 4: Schedule includes Old Dominion, Southern miss La Tech. You flip

1286
00:59:08,280 --> 00:59:11,800
Speaker 4: over to UTSA and you got wins against Western Kentucky, Memphis, Illinois,

1287
00:59:12,360 --> 00:59:15,600
Speaker 4: I mean better victories. So you know, just by strength

1288
00:59:15,600 --> 00:59:19,080
Speaker 4: of record alone, the UTCA defense is the difference in

1289
00:59:19,080 --> 00:59:21,840
Speaker 4: this game. UTEP a heavy rush, but theyre one hundred

1290
00:59:21,840 --> 00:59:23,080
Speaker 4: and twenty fourth in success rate.

1291
00:59:23,280 --> 00:59:26,080
Speaker 1: They just they it's amazing how good their passing offense

1292
00:59:26,120 --> 00:59:27,720
Speaker 1: has been. I mean, they run it a lot so,

1293
00:59:27,840 --> 00:59:30,840
Speaker 1: but they had McCormick, which was the all right, this

1294
00:59:30,880 --> 00:59:32,640
Speaker 1: is gonna be the start of the show. But no,

1295
00:59:32,760 --> 00:59:33,880
Speaker 1: it's the passing offense.

1296
00:59:34,120 --> 00:59:36,600
Speaker 4: Yeah, And I think one thing that I'm focusing on

1297
00:59:36,760 --> 00:59:39,600
Speaker 4: is that when UTEP scores their points and bunches, it

1298
00:59:39,640 --> 00:59:40,600
Speaker 4: comes in the fourth quarter.

1299
00:59:41,080 --> 00:59:42,240
Speaker 2: It comes in the second half.

1300
00:59:42,320 --> 00:59:45,320
Speaker 4: It's never like they come out guns blazing, you know,

1301
00:59:45,360 --> 00:59:49,160
Speaker 4: even against New Mexico State. So this is a UTSA

1302
00:59:49,240 --> 00:59:51,480
Speaker 4: play for me. I think I might cut it up

1303
00:59:51,480 --> 00:59:54,120
Speaker 4: and do it first half, though the whole college fotball

1304
00:59:54,160 --> 00:59:57,400
Speaker 4: playoff snub the advantages that I see against the UTEB defense.

1305
00:59:57,760 --> 01:00:00,320
Speaker 4: I think it's a first half play because UTEP has

1306
01:00:00,400 --> 01:00:03,480
Speaker 4: proven against multiple teams in the fourth quarter they can

1307
01:00:03,480 --> 01:00:05,920
Speaker 4: get eighteen points up on the board real fast. I

1308
01:00:05,960 --> 01:00:08,280
Speaker 4: don't know where it comes from. I love you, Minor Nation,

1309
01:00:08,400 --> 01:00:10,600
Speaker 4: but this instant offense that comes in the fourth quarter,

1310
01:00:10,880 --> 01:00:11,760
Speaker 4: that's why we love you.

1311
01:00:12,120 --> 01:00:13,680
Speaker 2: But I'm gonna try to avoid it and probably go

1312
01:00:13,760 --> 01:00:14,840
Speaker 2: UTSA first half here.

1313
01:00:15,160 --> 01:00:19,320
Speaker 1: They love covering, They've been certainly good at that. We'll

1314
01:00:19,320 --> 01:00:21,600
Speaker 1: go quickly here for a couple other games, just one sentence,

1315
01:00:21,600 --> 01:00:24,600
Speaker 1: I'll give you Missouri only team of the country has

1316
01:00:24,640 --> 01:00:28,000
Speaker 1: yet to cover at Georgia. Georgia thirty nine point favorite.

1317
01:00:28,080 --> 01:00:29,800
Speaker 1: I mean I make this a little lower. I show

1318
01:00:29,880 --> 01:00:32,840
Speaker 1: value on Missouri, but no thanks. I mean, Missouri's run

1319
01:00:32,840 --> 01:00:35,160
Speaker 1: defense is historically bad, so Georgia can just hand that

1320
01:00:35,240 --> 01:00:37,000
Speaker 1: off here and who knows how much they can put up.

1321
01:00:37,080 --> 01:00:41,600
Speaker 1: By the way, Georgia's defense is in non garbage time possessions,

1322
01:00:41,800 --> 01:00:45,800
Speaker 1: non garbage time drives, allowing point three to two points

1323
01:00:45,880 --> 01:00:50,320
Speaker 1: per drive. Alabama in twenty eleven considered maybe the best

1324
01:00:50,360 --> 01:00:55,400
Speaker 1: defense ever allowed point five around point three to two. Yeah, no,

1325
01:00:55,600 --> 01:00:57,560
Speaker 1: there's gonna be some aggression in the scoring. I mean,

1326
01:00:57,600 --> 01:00:59,480
Speaker 1: like Florida, how many drives did they get down of

1327
01:00:59,480 --> 01:01:02,600
Speaker 1: the twenty and not score? But I mean this Georgia

1328
01:01:02,640 --> 01:01:06,160
Speaker 1: defense is historically good. No, I have no interest in Missouri.

1329
01:01:06,920 --> 01:01:08,440
Speaker 1: Thirty nine is way too large.

1330
01:01:08,680 --> 01:01:11,040
Speaker 4: But once you look at the fact that Connor Bezilac

1331
01:01:11,120 --> 01:01:13,400
Speaker 4: had injury left the game and now drink with being

1332
01:01:13,480 --> 01:01:16,160
Speaker 4: mum about who the quarterback is, if Connor Beslack was

1333
01:01:16,160 --> 01:01:19,320
Speaker 4: in there, I would consider thirty nine, especially because I

1334
01:01:19,360 --> 01:01:21,080
Speaker 4: make it like thirty three, and I think guess pete.

1335
01:01:20,880 --> 01:01:21,959
Speaker 2: Plus is at twenty nine.

1336
01:01:22,200 --> 01:01:26,920
Speaker 4: But then I go and remember what Georgia dinigains Vanderbilt.

1337
01:01:26,760 --> 01:01:28,520
Speaker 2: No Banks, So I'm gonna step out of this. I

1338
01:01:28,560 --> 01:01:29,240
Speaker 2: would consider with.

1339
01:01:29,200 --> 01:01:32,040
Speaker 1: The Basilac Texas, I would state I would stay six

1340
01:01:32,040 --> 01:01:34,920
Speaker 1: and a half point favorite. Is the monkey a distraction?

1341
01:01:35,120 --> 01:01:37,439
Speaker 1: Is the monkey a rallying point? Anything here?

1342
01:01:37,760 --> 01:01:38,600
Speaker 2: I listen.

1343
01:01:38,680 --> 01:01:41,680
Speaker 4: We have players getting into altercations, with Sark getting kicked

1344
01:01:41,720 --> 01:01:46,400
Speaker 4: off the team. We've got special teams, coaches that make

1345
01:01:46,440 --> 01:01:49,720
Speaker 4: a million dollars. Listen, people, if you have not gotten

1346
01:01:49,760 --> 01:01:52,640
Speaker 4: into this monkey story is possibly some of the best

1347
01:01:52,760 --> 01:01:55,720
Speaker 4: entertainment that I've seen in college football. I mean, just

1348
01:01:55,760 --> 01:01:59,160
Speaker 4: the whole scenario around the monkey's owner and how the

1349
01:01:59,160 --> 01:02:01,960
Speaker 4: owner came into this social team coordinator's life, the history

1350
01:02:02,000 --> 01:02:02,440
Speaker 4: behind that.

1351
01:02:02,920 --> 01:02:04,520
Speaker 1: The monkey's part of the stripping act.

1352
01:02:04,640 --> 01:02:07,600
Speaker 2: The monkey is on the pole, the monkey kisses the money,

1353
01:02:07,680 --> 01:02:11,320
Speaker 2: where's a diaper? And climbs the stripper pole. Find me

1354
01:02:11,720 --> 01:02:15,440
Speaker 2: a better entertainment value, NBA. I'm so tired of hearing

1355
01:02:15,480 --> 01:02:17,480
Speaker 2: how the NBA is the most dramatic league. I have

1356
01:02:17,520 --> 01:02:20,720
Speaker 2: a monkey on a pole, all right, Come on, NBA,

1357
01:02:21,040 --> 01:02:21,840
Speaker 2: try to live up to ze.

1358
01:02:22,600 --> 01:02:26,160
Speaker 1: So I said, he's only hiring men of high morality

1359
01:02:26,200 --> 01:02:29,720
Speaker 1: and care prairies.

1360
01:02:29,800 --> 01:02:36,240
Speaker 2: Guys are live and hut deep in the hid Texas.

1361
01:02:36,360 --> 01:02:39,800
Speaker 4: Over over over here, Ya, the Texas defense is just

1362
01:02:39,840 --> 01:02:41,200
Speaker 4: not getting any better.

1363
01:02:42,120 --> 01:02:43,000
Speaker 2: Give me an over here.

1364
01:02:43,320 --> 01:02:45,120
Speaker 1: Any other games you want to mention, I'll throw out

1365
01:02:46,160 --> 01:02:51,200
Speaker 1: Navy Auto play maybe over two touchdowns. I took the

1366
01:02:51,240 --> 01:02:56,400
Speaker 1: overlaying Navy plus twenty one. I don't care if they

1367
01:02:56,400 --> 01:02:59,919
Speaker 1: are playing Georgia. If they're catching, I mean, obviously would

1368
01:02:59,920 --> 01:03:02,720
Speaker 1: be geting a lot more Navy over two touchdowns. Service

1369
01:03:02,720 --> 01:03:06,160
Speaker 1: Academy were two touchdowns undefeated so far this year. Auto

1370
01:03:06,200 --> 01:03:08,920
Speaker 1: Auto Auto don't care if it loses. It's like sixty

1371
01:03:08,920 --> 01:03:11,720
Speaker 1: five percent historically and should continue to do so and

1372
01:03:11,800 --> 01:03:14,080
Speaker 1: build the market. Drysully reacts to these lot to the

1373
01:03:14,080 --> 01:03:15,919
Speaker 1: Service academies. But you like the over there.

1374
01:03:16,320 --> 01:03:18,520
Speaker 2: I do like the over there with Navy. Something is

1375
01:03:18,560 --> 01:03:21,120
Speaker 2: clicked with them. It just wasn't a fluke against Cincinnati.

1376
01:03:21,480 --> 01:03:24,600
Speaker 4: They are actually getting, you know, some form of success

1377
01:03:24,720 --> 01:03:25,840
Speaker 4: rate with the triple option.

1378
01:03:27,040 --> 01:03:27,840
Speaker 2: So yes, I.

1379
01:03:27,760 --> 01:03:28,200
Speaker 1: Agree with you.

1380
01:03:28,280 --> 01:03:29,760
Speaker 2: Over I do like Navy two.

1381
01:03:30,480 --> 01:03:34,200
Speaker 4: I'm gonna pivot off into the other Service Academy game,

1382
01:03:34,320 --> 01:03:36,040
Speaker 4: Army and Air Force going up against each other.

1383
01:03:36,200 --> 01:03:39,400
Speaker 2: I took over thirty seven stock I know, I know,

1384
01:03:39,520 --> 01:03:41,320
Speaker 2: I know. And years ago you and I like this

1385
01:03:41,520 --> 01:03:43,200
Speaker 2: was like, I mean, this was huge for you and me.

1386
01:03:43,240 --> 01:03:45,960
Speaker 4: I mean we these booked his osmakers would throw out

1387
01:03:46,000 --> 01:03:48,120
Speaker 4: fifty five and we would just pound that shit down

1388
01:03:48,160 --> 01:03:48,760
Speaker 4: to forty two.

1389
01:03:48,880 --> 01:03:52,400
Speaker 2: Right, And now we're opening thirty seven, you know.

1390
01:03:52,840 --> 01:03:55,200
Speaker 4: And so when I when you break this game down,

1391
01:03:55,840 --> 01:03:57,920
Speaker 4: I'm not gonna sit here and hide behind the spreadsheet

1392
01:03:57,960 --> 01:03:59,840
Speaker 4: and say, yeah, I make this forty four and a half.

1393
01:03:59,880 --> 01:04:03,600
Speaker 4: But I will tell you that these teams have very

1394
01:04:03,640 --> 01:04:09,040
Speaker 4: strong offensive finishing drives compared to their defensive counterparts. Army

1395
01:04:09,600 --> 01:04:12,840
Speaker 4: thirteenth in offensive finishing drives, forty six on the Air

1396
01:04:12,840 --> 01:04:16,200
Speaker 4: Force defense air Force thirty six in offensive enning drives,

1397
01:04:16,320 --> 01:04:19,400
Speaker 4: Army one hundred and tenth in defensive finishing drives. So

1398
01:04:19,640 --> 01:04:21,919
Speaker 4: both teams are going to have success running the ball.

1399
01:04:22,240 --> 01:04:24,479
Speaker 4: Air Force has just been a machine running the ball.

1400
01:04:25,360 --> 01:04:26,840
Speaker 4: Army is going to be able to run the ball,

1401
01:04:26,880 --> 01:04:28,800
Speaker 4: for whatever that's worth. I don't know about the status

1402
01:04:28,800 --> 01:04:31,080
Speaker 4: of Christian Anderson, but these two teams fold in the

1403
01:04:31,120 --> 01:04:33,320
Speaker 4: red zone. They fold when it gets within the forty

1404
01:04:33,960 --> 01:04:35,760
Speaker 4: thirty seven What is that?

1405
01:04:36,480 --> 01:04:37,080
Speaker 1: What is that?

1406
01:04:36,920 --> 01:04:39,240
Speaker 4: That's a It's seventeen to fourteen, and then there's a

1407
01:04:39,280 --> 01:04:40,840
Speaker 4: sneeze and it goes over. I mean, it's not hard

1408
01:04:40,840 --> 01:04:42,960
Speaker 4: to get over thirty seven. We saw that with Wisconsin

1409
01:04:43,000 --> 01:04:45,479
Speaker 4: and Iowa, So yeah, over for me on thirty seven.

1410
01:04:46,120 --> 01:04:48,320
Speaker 1: It's just different when service academies play each other. I

1411
01:04:48,360 --> 01:04:49,960
Speaker 1: can't I can't get on board with you there because

1412
01:04:49,960 --> 01:04:53,520
Speaker 1: the thirty seven Service Academy Betting Religion.

1413
01:04:53,320 --> 01:04:56,480
Speaker 4: Conversation last year that someday these totals would be opening

1414
01:04:56,480 --> 01:04:58,560
Speaker 4: in the thirties and we'd have to start playing overs.

1415
01:04:58,600 --> 01:05:00,800
Speaker 2: Where did that stuck? You go? Where'd that guy go?

1416
01:05:01,120 --> 01:05:01,920
Speaker 2: You're gonna play this down?

1417
01:05:02,280 --> 01:05:04,800
Speaker 1: I need lower, I need I need like thirty three

1418
01:05:04,840 --> 01:05:09,160
Speaker 1: to go over here. I make this thirty four no joke.

1419
01:05:09,520 --> 01:05:11,800
Speaker 1: All right, let's talk stick of the week. Let's stalk

1420
01:05:11,840 --> 01:05:17,200
Speaker 1: the smelliest, fishiest line of the week. Smelly, smelly, smelly.

1421
01:05:17,760 --> 01:05:19,920
Speaker 2: It's the smell. It's quite pungent.

1422
01:05:20,160 --> 01:05:23,480
Speaker 1: Dude, plug your nose, it's stinks.

1423
01:05:23,560 --> 01:05:26,120
Speaker 2: This is your stink of the week.

1424
01:05:29,440 --> 01:05:32,880
Speaker 1: Smell the one that I was gonna throw it. I mean,

1425
01:05:32,880 --> 01:05:34,920
Speaker 1: I like it. I like you have the side. But

1426
01:05:35,040 --> 01:05:36,760
Speaker 1: I could see a lot of people looking at Michigan

1427
01:05:36,760 --> 01:05:38,440
Speaker 1: State and say, oh oh, they're only minus three on

1428
01:05:38,520 --> 01:05:43,120
Speaker 1: the road against how about you, what's the smelliest, smelliest

1429
01:05:43,120 --> 01:05:43,640
Speaker 1: line of the week?

1430
01:05:43,800 --> 01:05:46,800
Speaker 2: Easy, easy, This one was on the board. I was like,

1431
01:05:46,920 --> 01:05:48,080
Speaker 2: what is this?

1432
01:05:48,840 --> 01:05:52,560
Speaker 4: Old Dominion favored by three on the road to Florida International.

1433
01:05:53,080 --> 01:05:57,160
Speaker 4: Old Dominions lost ten straight on the road. They're one

1434
01:05:57,160 --> 01:05:59,800
Speaker 4: in fifteen straight up on the road since twenty eight

1435
01:06:00,240 --> 01:06:03,120
Speaker 4: That win was over a three and nine Western Kentucky team.

1436
01:06:04,320 --> 01:06:06,840
Speaker 4: None of these players were on that team in twenty eighteen.

1437
01:06:07,120 --> 01:06:08,960
Speaker 4: This team can't win on the road. And then I

1438
01:06:09,000 --> 01:06:12,520
Speaker 4: go and I pulled Florida International splits. But Davis has

1439
01:06:12,560 --> 01:06:14,960
Speaker 4: seven losses. There's no chance of making a ball.

1440
01:06:15,400 --> 01:06:18,280
Speaker 2: I'm not sure what's being played for here, but Old

1441
01:06:18,360 --> 01:06:22,080
Speaker 2: Dominion favored on the road in an FBS game. Stink,

1442
01:06:22,520 --> 01:06:25,560
Speaker 2: big stink. I'm probably gonna end up playing Florida International.

1443
01:06:25,600 --> 01:06:27,400
Speaker 2: I'm not gonna like it. I am gonna watch it,

1444
01:06:27,400 --> 01:06:29,600
Speaker 2: and I'm probably gonna hate myself every second. But Old

1445
01:06:29,600 --> 01:06:30,680
Speaker 2: Dominion on the road, Come.

1446
01:06:30,520 --> 01:06:33,280
Speaker 1: On, smelly, all right, before we get out of here, let's

1447
01:06:33,280 --> 01:06:35,800
Speaker 1: go three and out.

1448
01:06:36,080 --> 01:06:38,520
Speaker 3: Let's make it a quick three and out.

1449
01:06:39,320 --> 01:06:41,800
Speaker 1: All right, First down, we got Friday night lights.

1450
01:06:42,320 --> 01:06:45,200
Speaker 2: That's here. Gentlemen, clear eyes, full hearts.

1451
01:06:45,520 --> 01:06:50,439
Speaker 1: Hey, let's go play some football. Yeah, Virginia Tech at

1452
01:06:50,440 --> 01:06:53,200
Speaker 1: Boston College. Boston College is a three point home underdog.

1453
01:06:53,560 --> 01:06:56,800
Speaker 1: Virginia Tech off of a win at Georgia Tech helped

1454
01:06:56,800 --> 01:06:59,320
Speaker 1: our Georgia Tech season win total under what a roller coast.

1455
01:06:59,360 --> 01:07:03,800
Speaker 1: So that's been Boston College slipping here. You're seeing lately

1456
01:07:03,840 --> 01:07:07,560
Speaker 1: the impact of the injury to fill Djokovic, their star quarterback.

1457
01:07:08,320 --> 01:07:10,800
Speaker 1: Does BC get right here on Friday night? I think

1458
01:07:10,800 --> 01:07:13,680
Speaker 1: it's a red bandana game, so it is a red vanda.

1459
01:07:14,400 --> 01:07:15,640
Speaker 1: Crowd should be pretty good here.

1460
01:07:15,920 --> 01:07:17,760
Speaker 4: Yeah, it is a red bandana game. You always back

1461
01:07:17,800 --> 01:07:19,680
Speaker 4: BC in the red bandana game. It's a game that

1462
01:07:19,720 --> 01:07:23,640
Speaker 4: I project as a pick Virginia Tech. There are some

1463
01:07:23,760 --> 01:07:25,880
Speaker 4: numbers that they have that are really bad. They're offensive

1464
01:07:25,920 --> 01:07:28,840
Speaker 4: finishing drives one hundred and fifteenth, their defense is one

1465
01:07:28,880 --> 01:07:31,560
Speaker 4: hundred and twenty fifth and defending explosive runs. I'm not

1466
01:07:31,600 --> 01:07:34,600
Speaker 4: saying Boston College can expose some of these things, but

1467
01:07:34,640 --> 01:07:38,280
Speaker 4: Boston College's defense is twelfth in defensive finishing drives. I

1468
01:07:38,280 --> 01:07:40,840
Speaker 4: think they're going to do a great job. And listen,

1469
01:07:40,920 --> 01:07:43,560
Speaker 4: it's November. Jeff Hafley needs two wins to get to

1470
01:07:43,640 --> 01:07:46,160
Speaker 4: a Bowl, and there's not that many of these four

1471
01:07:46,200 --> 01:07:47,960
Speaker 4: games left. This is one that he has to have

1472
01:07:48,440 --> 01:07:50,400
Speaker 4: red Bandana game to get him to five wins.

1473
01:07:51,640 --> 01:07:52,600
Speaker 2: This is a really big deal.

1474
01:07:52,960 --> 01:07:57,040
Speaker 4: Boston College is tenth and pass coverage, they're fifteenth and tackling.

1475
01:07:57,120 --> 01:07:59,320
Speaker 2: They can get it in open space. I think Virginia

1476
01:07:59,320 --> 01:08:01,200
Speaker 2: Tech's a little bit old rated here. I'm not alone.

1477
01:08:01,240 --> 01:08:03,120
Speaker 2: I think s P plus makes this around two.

1478
01:08:03,800 --> 01:08:05,480
Speaker 1: So close to a pick too.

1479
01:08:05,800 --> 01:08:08,439
Speaker 4: Yeah, so Boston College here for me, just Grinn and Bart,

1480
01:08:08,560 --> 01:08:09,920
Speaker 4: but I mean Halfway's a great coach.

1481
01:08:10,360 --> 01:08:13,280
Speaker 2: I think Justin Fintay is on his way out. It's

1482
01:08:13,560 --> 01:08:16,679
Speaker 2: real phony numbers here with Virginia Tech that can be exposed.

1483
01:08:17,360 --> 01:08:18,800
Speaker 1: I think I'll join you there on Friday night. Define

1484
01:08:18,840 --> 01:08:21,400
Speaker 1: gave in Utah Stanford. Utah's a up to a nine

1485
01:08:21,439 --> 01:08:24,720
Speaker 1: point favorite. On the road of Stanford. There's questions about

1486
01:08:24,720 --> 01:08:28,439
Speaker 1: if Tanner McKee will play, if he's not playing, could

1487
01:08:28,479 --> 01:08:30,880
Speaker 1: get ugly, fast, might get ugly anyway, what do you

1488
01:08:30,880 --> 01:08:31,320
Speaker 1: see here?

1489
01:08:31,600 --> 01:08:34,400
Speaker 4: Yeah, it's a projection of eight and that was if

1490
01:08:34,520 --> 01:08:37,519
Speaker 4: McKee was playing. So that definitely makes Yah. That's a

1491
01:08:37,520 --> 01:08:40,400
Speaker 4: big impact that Stanford. When he wasn't playing early in

1492
01:08:40,439 --> 01:08:42,519
Speaker 4: the season was living up to everything that we saw

1493
01:08:42,520 --> 01:08:45,280
Speaker 4: in the under four and a half wins. There are

1494
01:08:45,320 --> 01:08:48,080
Speaker 4: some really bad numbers offensively that McKee is holding up.

1495
01:08:48,840 --> 01:08:51,439
Speaker 4: The best attribute that Stanford has on offense is if

1496
01:08:51,439 --> 01:08:55,240
Speaker 4: they're twenty first and big play percentage and and you

1497
01:08:55,280 --> 01:08:57,519
Speaker 4: know that's just not going to be there without without McKee.

1498
01:08:57,560 --> 01:09:00,960
Speaker 4: So absolutely, for a Utah defense it's top twenty five

1499
01:09:01,000 --> 01:09:04,200
Speaker 4: in defensive HAVOC, they are going to go crazy on

1500
01:09:04,280 --> 01:09:07,960
Speaker 4: a Stanford offense that is really struggling to to you know,

1501
01:09:08,080 --> 01:09:11,639
Speaker 4: maintain they're terrible and havoc allowed, they're terrible, their bottom

1502
01:09:11,640 --> 01:09:14,040
Speaker 4: ten in lineyards, they're one hundred and fifth in offensive

1503
01:09:14,040 --> 01:09:14,759
Speaker 4: finishing drives.

1504
01:09:14,840 --> 01:09:16,639
Speaker 2: Utah defense will have a good time against that.

1505
01:09:17,080 --> 01:09:18,280
Speaker 4: And then if you look at the other side of

1506
01:09:18,280 --> 01:09:20,960
Speaker 4: the ball, Stanford's defense is just dreadful, one hundred and

1507
01:09:21,000 --> 01:09:24,760
Speaker 4: seventeenth in defensive HAVOC, almost dead last in lineyards. That

1508
01:09:25,080 --> 01:09:27,519
Speaker 4: is the handicap of the game because Utah is a

1509
01:09:27,560 --> 01:09:32,320
Speaker 4: fantastic team at running the ball, top fifteen in lineyards,

1510
01:09:32,320 --> 01:09:34,320
Speaker 4: and that's what's going to expose Stanford. So yeah, I

1511
01:09:34,360 --> 01:09:36,800
Speaker 4: agree with mckey's out. There's no there's no limit to

1512
01:09:36,840 --> 01:09:39,400
Speaker 4: this number. I'd probably stop buying at thirteen.

1513
01:09:39,960 --> 01:09:43,040
Speaker 1: Let's move on to second down, talk our favorite overdogs

1514
01:09:43,040 --> 01:09:45,599
Speaker 1: and underdogs for those off mini overdogs, our favorite favorite

1515
01:09:45,640 --> 01:09:48,840
Speaker 1: on the board. I'll start favorite overdog. I think I

1516
01:09:48,880 --> 01:09:51,519
Speaker 1: might lay it here with Cincy, since he minus twenty

1517
01:09:51,640 --> 01:09:53,920
Speaker 1: two and a half. There's some I think there's some

1518
01:09:54,000 --> 01:09:56,960
Speaker 1: value on the tails with Cincinnati because you know there's

1519
01:09:56,960 --> 01:10:00,280
Speaker 1: a distribution of outcomes and these lines as soon. I

1520
01:10:00,280 --> 01:10:02,679
Speaker 1: don't think it's being built into the fact that since

1521
01:10:02,720 --> 01:10:04,400
Speaker 1: he wants to run up the score the last week's

1522
01:10:04,400 --> 01:10:06,400
Speaker 1: I've been a position to do so. But when they

1523
01:10:06,479 --> 01:10:09,439
Speaker 1: have been normally, when you're a team up twenty, you're

1524
01:10:09,439 --> 01:10:12,519
Speaker 1: gonna play soft defense. You're not trying to score. That

1525
01:10:12,600 --> 01:10:16,320
Speaker 1: impacts you know how easy or difficult it is to cover,

1526
01:10:16,720 --> 01:10:19,800
Speaker 1: you know, a touchdown every three. I'd spread over three touchdowns.

1527
01:10:19,920 --> 01:10:22,000
Speaker 1: But in this case, if since he's up twenty four late,

1528
01:10:22,960 --> 01:10:26,160
Speaker 1: they don't want Tulsa to score those has been dreadful

1529
01:10:26,160 --> 01:10:28,960
Speaker 1: by the way, and they want to keep scoring, especially

1530
01:10:29,000 --> 01:10:31,280
Speaker 1: after getting snubbed in the College f wall ploff. Since

1531
01:10:31,280 --> 01:10:33,000
Speaker 1: he wants to come out here and raise middle fingers

1532
01:10:33,040 --> 01:10:35,400
Speaker 1: up to everyone in the in the country and college

1533
01:10:35,400 --> 01:10:37,600
Speaker 1: full Cloff. ESPN tried to get Desmond Ritter on that

1534
01:10:37,680 --> 01:10:39,680
Speaker 1: on the show. He wouldn't go. I mean, this is

1535
01:10:39,720 --> 01:10:42,439
Speaker 1: a pissed off Sincey team against what looks like a

1536
01:10:42,520 --> 01:10:45,400
Speaker 1: lame duck Tulsa team this year. I'm sure Tulsa will

1537
01:10:45,400 --> 01:10:47,719
Speaker 1: get up for this early to try and ruin Sincy's season.

1538
01:10:47,760 --> 01:10:49,920
Speaker 1: But if they get behind this one could could get

1539
01:10:50,000 --> 01:10:51,320
Speaker 1: ugly quick. Yeah.

1540
01:10:51,400 --> 01:10:53,639
Speaker 4: Yeah, I completely agree with you there. I was gonna

1541
01:10:53,640 --> 01:10:55,920
Speaker 4: go Oregon on my overdog and then you talked me

1542
01:10:56,040 --> 01:10:58,240
Speaker 4: out of it. You completely talked me out of it.

1543
01:10:58,280 --> 01:10:59,960
Speaker 4: And I don't like the weather, so I'm gonna chain

1544
01:11:00,920 --> 01:11:01,800
Speaker 4: my overdog.

1545
01:11:02,680 --> 01:11:07,600
Speaker 2: I'm gonna go with Michigan. Nobody loves boot Dog Jim.

1546
01:11:07,760 --> 01:11:13,360
Speaker 2: Don't gamble, don't associate with gamblers. Avoid it like the plague.

1547
01:11:14,200 --> 01:11:18,280
Speaker 3: Let's check in with Bodog Jim.

1548
01:11:18,360 --> 01:11:21,080
Speaker 2: Yeah, nobody loves bullying teams.

1549
01:11:20,640 --> 01:11:24,400
Speaker 4: That are beat up, injured, that are struggling than Bowdog Jim.

1550
01:11:24,720 --> 01:11:27,400
Speaker 4: And considering that he finished seventh in the College Football

1551
01:11:27,400 --> 01:11:32,160
Speaker 4: Playoff rankings, style points matter, Michigan is at home, Indiana.

1552
01:11:32,280 --> 01:11:34,720
Speaker 4: You can just kind of you can pop them out

1553
01:11:34,720 --> 01:11:37,960
Speaker 4: for any postseason play. Too many injuries, never got the

1554
01:11:38,000 --> 01:11:40,439
Speaker 4: offense going. Now the defense is starting to sag a

1555
01:11:40,439 --> 01:11:43,679
Speaker 4: little bit. Michigan is going to do everything they can

1556
01:11:43,920 --> 01:11:48,080
Speaker 4: to get the Committee's attention with the score overdog Michigan.

1557
01:11:48,600 --> 01:11:52,040
Speaker 1: All right, try to move on to our favorite money line.

1558
01:11:52,000 --> 01:11:59,840
Speaker 3: Underdog turning good weekends into great weekends. It's time for

1559
01:11:59,880 --> 01:12:01,520
Speaker 3: the money line parlay.

1560
01:12:02,680 --> 01:12:05,160
Speaker 1: Colin, you hit again last week. I gotta pick it

1561
01:12:05,200 --> 01:12:10,799
Speaker 1: up here. There's not much to say or for me, Pdue.

1562
01:12:11,520 --> 01:12:15,519
Speaker 1: Purdue is ending Sparty's dream run. What do you got?

1563
01:12:16,160 --> 01:12:17,479
Speaker 2: I waited as long as I could.

1564
01:12:17,560 --> 01:12:19,200
Speaker 4: I still don't think I've put a play in the

1565
01:12:19,240 --> 01:12:21,439
Speaker 4: app and I still haven't shoved money over the counter.

1566
01:12:22,240 --> 01:12:24,839
Speaker 2: But the team that I want is Memphis.

1567
01:12:25,680 --> 01:12:28,400
Speaker 4: SMU is well, first off, I'm not going to play

1568
01:12:28,400 --> 01:12:31,680
Speaker 4: the whole Sunny Dikes is desperately wanted by TCU and

1569
01:12:31,720 --> 01:12:34,040
Speaker 4: by Texas Tech, and Sunny Dikes is on his way

1570
01:12:34,040 --> 01:12:36,280
Speaker 4: out of SMU, which is is you know, I don't

1571
01:12:36,280 --> 01:12:37,479
Speaker 4: think that's a part of the handicap.

1572
01:12:37,520 --> 01:12:40,560
Speaker 2: The handicap really is that SMU's defense is getting.

1573
01:12:40,360 --> 01:12:43,280
Speaker 4: Worse at tackling one hundred and twenty third. They're getting

1574
01:12:43,320 --> 01:12:46,439
Speaker 4: worse at pass coverage one hundred and twenty seventh. We

1575
01:12:46,520 --> 01:12:49,720
Speaker 4: need freshman Seth Hennigan back in at Memphis at quarterback.

1576
01:12:49,880 --> 01:12:52,720
Speaker 4: Peter Parrish, you know, filled in at quarterback for Seth

1577
01:12:52,760 --> 01:12:56,080
Speaker 4: Henigan last week with an injury. Wasn't fantastic, but it's

1578
01:12:56,120 --> 01:12:58,800
Speaker 4: still a passing offense, an explosive passing offense that can

1579
01:12:58,840 --> 01:13:00,760
Speaker 4: take advantage of this SMU defense that is.

1580
01:13:00,760 --> 01:13:02,439
Speaker 2: Just absolutely falling apart.

1581
01:13:02,800 --> 01:13:06,360
Speaker 4: SMU is also outside the top one hundred in SP

1582
01:13:06,400 --> 01:13:07,400
Speaker 4: plus special teams.

1583
01:13:08,000 --> 01:13:08,880
Speaker 2: A lot of issues here.

1584
01:13:08,920 --> 01:13:11,280
Speaker 4: Now Tanner Mordecai in the offense can still sling it.

1585
01:13:11,439 --> 01:13:13,559
Speaker 4: I expect this to be a shootout, but there is

1586
01:13:13,600 --> 01:13:17,040
Speaker 4: a massive difference in tackling here. Memphis top twenty five,

1587
01:13:17,439 --> 01:13:20,640
Speaker 4: SMU near dead last, and that is important when you

1588
01:13:20,720 --> 01:13:23,080
Speaker 4: are having an explosive game where teams are going up

1589
01:13:23,120 --> 01:13:26,000
Speaker 4: and down the field. If Seth Henigan is in this game,

1590
01:13:26,080 --> 01:13:30,880
Speaker 4: that's even better. There was mentioned that Memphis changed some

1591
01:13:30,920 --> 01:13:32,880
Speaker 4: things for Peter Parrish and they expect a lot more

1592
01:13:32,880 --> 01:13:34,559
Speaker 4: out of him this week if he is the starter

1593
01:13:34,880 --> 01:13:37,880
Speaker 4: and again can still play. That freshman kid's got a

1594
01:13:37,960 --> 01:13:39,800
Speaker 4: heck of an arm on. I'm gonna go Memphis here,

1595
01:13:39,880 --> 01:13:42,880
Speaker 4: a money line underdog. We're gonna get this with Purdue.

1596
01:13:43,640 --> 01:13:45,240
Speaker 1: Yeah they could. You could have a little bit of

1597
01:13:45,240 --> 01:13:48,320
Speaker 1: a leftown two for rest of you after that thrilling,

1598
01:13:48,439 --> 01:13:51,800
Speaker 1: heartbreaking loss in that game against Houston last week. Yeah,

1599
01:13:51,920 --> 01:13:54,960
Speaker 1: to end their undefeated campaign. All right, before we get

1600
01:13:55,000 --> 01:13:57,559
Speaker 1: out of here, third down, our favorite bet of the weekend.

1601
01:13:58,000 --> 01:14:01,240
Speaker 1: I'll start here, shocker, We're going Purdue. Uh, this is

1602
01:14:01,280 --> 01:14:06,000
Speaker 1: a Purdue podcast this week, boiler Look. I mentioned it earlier.

1603
01:14:06,400 --> 01:14:08,559
Speaker 1: Purdue plus three at home against Michigan State. First all,

1604
01:14:08,600 --> 01:14:11,439
Speaker 1: it's a bad spot for Michigan State. Just dential letdown there.

1605
01:14:11,640 --> 01:14:13,200
Speaker 1: You know, hey, look, we're in the top four of

1606
01:14:13,240 --> 01:14:16,200
Speaker 1: the Collegetable Playoff. We had an emotional comeback win over

1607
01:14:16,600 --> 01:14:19,360
Speaker 1: our in state rival. This is a team that got

1608
01:14:19,360 --> 01:14:21,519
Speaker 1: out played by Michigan. Should have lost that game, got

1609
01:14:21,520 --> 01:14:23,760
Speaker 1: out played by Nebraska, should have lost that game, could

1610
01:14:23,760 --> 01:14:26,000
Speaker 1: have lost to Indiana, got out gained in that game.

1611
01:14:26,040 --> 01:14:28,519
Speaker 1: And their backup quarterback. You know, they're getting all these

1612
01:14:28,520 --> 01:14:32,000
Speaker 1: non offensive touchdowns at key points in time. Even in Miami,

1613
01:14:32,080 --> 01:14:34,240
Speaker 1: he did a big fourth quarter. Twam could have four losses.

1614
01:14:34,600 --> 01:14:37,280
Speaker 1: I also like the matchup for for due produced defense

1615
01:14:37,320 --> 01:14:39,519
Speaker 1: been one of the most underrated units in the country.

1616
01:14:40,040 --> 01:14:44,160
Speaker 1: New staff has been you know, implemented a more aggressive defense.

1617
01:14:44,200 --> 01:14:46,360
Speaker 1: I think that they can key on Walker. They've been

1618
01:14:46,360 --> 01:14:48,639
Speaker 1: good against the run, top thirty success rate in EPA

1619
01:14:48,800 --> 01:14:51,040
Speaker 1: for rush, and I don't think you're gonna see Jalen

1620
01:14:51,120 --> 01:14:54,160
Speaker 1: Naylor out there, the star receiver for Michigan State. That

1621
01:14:54,280 --> 01:14:57,559
Speaker 1: will help the other side of the ball. Michigan State's

1622
01:14:57,560 --> 01:15:00,920
Speaker 1: biggest weakness this year has been in coverage, and as

1623
01:15:00,920 --> 01:15:03,920
Speaker 1: a result, they're playing really soft. That plays right into

1624
01:15:03,960 --> 01:15:07,559
Speaker 1: Produe's hands. David Bell should have a big day. This quick,

1625
01:15:07,600 --> 01:15:10,040
Speaker 1: short passing attack of Purdue. I think he's going to

1626
01:15:10,120 --> 01:15:13,120
Speaker 1: move the awful spot for Michigan State. We've seen Purdue

1627
01:15:13,120 --> 01:15:15,240
Speaker 1: pull off some upsets in similar spots in the past

1628
01:15:15,280 --> 01:15:17,439
Speaker 1: under Brohm. I think they do it again. Give me

1629
01:15:17,479 --> 01:15:20,400
Speaker 1: the boil on akers and a shot and a beer

1630
01:15:20,479 --> 01:15:25,439
Speaker 1: to go with it on Saturday afternoon. Purdue, Purdue, They're

1631
01:15:25,520 --> 01:15:26,559
Speaker 1: not even a real school.

1632
01:15:26,600 --> 01:15:28,720
Speaker 2: What the hell is the Purdue? Yeah, I agree with you.

1633
01:15:28,760 --> 01:15:31,639
Speaker 4: I like that play, and I'm going to go follow

1634
01:15:31,680 --> 01:15:33,320
Speaker 4: up with my best bet. Let's go a little G

1635
01:15:33,439 --> 01:15:36,960
Speaker 4: five action. Let's go Marshall Florida Atlantic right now, on

1636
01:15:37,000 --> 01:15:39,080
Speaker 4: the board fifty seven and a half fifty eight. Let's

1637
01:15:39,080 --> 01:15:40,760
Speaker 4: take the over on that number, take it up to

1638
01:15:40,800 --> 01:15:42,519
Speaker 4: fifty nine to fifty nine, one of the biggest key

1639
01:15:42,560 --> 01:15:44,400
Speaker 4: numbers in all of college football. So you'll want to

1640
01:15:44,400 --> 01:15:47,439
Speaker 4: get south of that with this overplay. At first you

1641
01:15:47,479 --> 01:15:50,439
Speaker 4: start off, you look at the tempo. Marshall is fifth

1642
01:15:50,439 --> 01:15:53,160
Speaker 4: in the nation and plays per mint it Florida Atlantic

1643
01:15:53,240 --> 01:15:54,479
Speaker 4: thirtieth and place permitted.

1644
01:15:54,560 --> 01:15:56,400
Speaker 2: These two teams, Willy Taggart.

1645
01:15:56,560 --> 01:15:58,360
Speaker 4: Charles Hoff, they want to go up and down the

1646
01:15:58,360 --> 01:16:01,240
Speaker 4: field as fast as possible. This is a number that

1647
01:16:01,280 --> 01:16:03,559
Speaker 4: I project at about sixty and a half, so I

1648
01:16:03,600 --> 01:16:06,160
Speaker 4: still think it's got room to run. But more importantly,

1649
01:16:06,200 --> 01:16:08,960
Speaker 4: like Marshall and Grant Wells, he's not going to get

1650
01:16:09,000 --> 01:16:12,200
Speaker 4: any pressure whatsoever. The Marshall offensive line has been fantastic

1651
01:16:12,280 --> 01:16:16,559
Speaker 4: at protecting him top twenty and pass blocking. Florida Atlantic

1652
01:16:16,560 --> 01:16:19,040
Speaker 4: has been terrible getting to the quarterback outside the top

1653
01:16:19,080 --> 01:16:21,880
Speaker 4: one hundred and pass rush outside the top fifty. In

1654
01:16:21,920 --> 01:16:23,880
Speaker 4: defensive havoc. They're not going to be able to stop

1655
01:16:23,920 --> 01:16:25,720
Speaker 4: what Marshall wants to do, and that is get the

1656
01:16:25,720 --> 01:16:28,679
Speaker 4: ball down the field fast. And Grant Wells is much

1657
01:16:28,680 --> 01:16:31,200
Speaker 4: better with a clean pocket than a crowded pocket. As

1658
01:16:31,240 --> 01:16:34,280
Speaker 4: far as Florida Atlantic goes, it's a very explosive offense.

1659
01:16:34,760 --> 01:16:36,880
Speaker 4: They can take advantage of a Marshall defense that is

1660
01:16:37,000 --> 01:16:40,839
Speaker 4: ninetieth and rushing success rate ninety third, defensive havoc themselves.

1661
01:16:40,880 --> 01:16:42,800
Speaker 2: There's nobody taking the ball away from each other.

1662
01:16:43,040 --> 01:16:45,439
Speaker 4: There is lightning fast tempo going on in this game

1663
01:16:45,640 --> 01:16:47,920
Speaker 4: and two offenses that know how to get touchdowns up

1664
01:16:47,920 --> 01:16:49,680
Speaker 4: on the board, and that is if the explosive play

1665
01:16:49,720 --> 01:16:52,120
Speaker 4: isn't already putting it in the end zone. I like

1666
01:16:52,160 --> 01:16:54,960
Speaker 4: these ultra fast teams getting the over in this game.

1667
01:16:56,080 --> 01:16:59,320
Speaker 1: Like it may join you there. Thank you as always

1668
01:16:59,400 --> 01:17:01,680
Speaker 1: calling for joy to me. Thanks everyone for listening. Make

1669
01:17:01,720 --> 01:17:04,519
Speaker 1: sure you tune in on Saturday morning ten thirty am

1670
01:17:04,520 --> 01:17:08,000
Speaker 1: E soon for Big Bets on Campus Live, which will

1671
01:17:08,000 --> 01:17:11,160
Speaker 1: be broadcast live on Twitter. We'll tweet out the show

1672
01:17:11,240 --> 01:17:15,719
Speaker 1: from our accounts, myself, Colin and our College Footble insider

1673
01:17:15,720 --> 01:17:17,600
Speaker 1: Brett McMurphy. And as I mentioned earlier, make sure you

1674
01:17:17,680 --> 01:17:20,519
Speaker 1: check out our Group of Five episode, those guys have

1675
01:17:20,600 --> 01:17:23,280
Speaker 1: been killing it, the Sources episode with Colin and Brett,

1676
01:17:23,720 --> 01:17:26,680
Speaker 1: and of course the College Bestall episodes that'll start on

1677
01:17:26,720 --> 01:17:28,960
Speaker 1: Wednesday with the Three Men. Weave a lot of content

1678
01:17:29,040 --> 01:17:31,800
Speaker 1: coming to you on the channel. Appreciate your support as always,

1679
01:17:31,840 --> 01:17:34,639
Speaker 1: appreciate you guys listening. Love this card this weekend. Hopefully

1680
01:17:34,640 --> 01:17:36,519
Speaker 1: we can have a big weekend and a huge close

1681
01:17:36,560 --> 01:17:40,920
Speaker 1: to the season, just like last year. Please subscribe on subscribe, subscribe,

1682
01:17:40,960 --> 01:17:44,040
Speaker 1: leave review. I'll do some giveaways on the recap episode.

1683
01:17:44,200 --> 01:17:46,360
Speaker 1: We'll recap the weekend, look at the next weekend and

1684
01:17:46,479 --> 01:17:48,599
Speaker 1: look at it to some maction. Of course weekday maction.

1685
01:17:49,080 --> 01:17:52,360
Speaker 1: We'll do that on Sunday night. That episode will be

1686
01:17:52,360 --> 01:17:55,320
Speaker 1: out on Monday morning. Tell a friend, telling enemy, leave

1687
01:17:55,360 --> 01:17:58,040
Speaker 1: a review. It really helps us out and we'll catch

1688
01:17:58,080 --> 01:17:59,479
Speaker 1: you later years.

1689
01:18:00,040 --> 01:18:02,160
Speaker 2: Peace out, m

1690
01:18:04,240 --> 01:18:04,360
Speaker 1: HM.