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Speaker 1: Hello, everyone, Welcome to the Betting PROSPGA Podcast. I'm Pat

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Speaker 1: Fitzmorris here with Beau mcbrair. Very shortly, we're going to

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Speaker 1: be previewing the Charles Schwab Challenge from a betting perspective. First,

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Speaker 1: we're going to do a quick recap of the eventful,

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Speaker 1: drama filled PGA Championship, and at the end of the show,

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Speaker 1: we will give you our one and done picks for

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Speaker 1: the week. The Betting pros PGA podcast is sponsored by

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Speaker 1: Underdog Fantasy. Underdog is the place to go for best

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Speaker 1: ball fantasy football contest, but you might not have known

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Speaker 1: that Underdog has golf contest too. Visit Underdog Fantasy dot

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Speaker 1: com or find Underdog in the app store, and don't

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Speaker 1: forget to register with the promo code BP Golf to

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Speaker 1: claim your special pick and to get a first time

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Speaker 1: deposit offer up to two hundred and fifty dollars in

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Speaker 1: bonus cash. More on Underdog and It's golf contest a

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Speaker 1: little later. Where to start with the PGA Championship bow Well,

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Speaker 1: I guess we should probably mention that Xander Schaffley won

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Speaker 1: the tournament, capturing his first career major. Xander rolled in

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Speaker 1: a six foot birdie putt Sunday on the par five

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Speaker 1: eighteenth edge, Bryce and d Chambeau by a stroke bow.

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Speaker 1: After Rory McElroy blew past Xander in the final round

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Speaker 1: of the Wells Fargo Championship a week earlier, I mentioned

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Speaker 1: my concerns about Xander's ability to close out tournaments, and

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Speaker 1: you quickly came to his defense, rightly pointing out that

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Speaker 1: it was less about Xander at Koyle Hollow than it

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Speaker 1: was about Rory just completely being out of his mind

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Speaker 1: that day, and you were spot on, my friend. Xander

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Speaker 1: was tied for the lead with Kalamrikawa going into the

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Speaker 1: final round, and Xander kept his foot on the gas

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Speaker 1: all day with a final round sixty five mid seven birdies.

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Speaker 1: His only hiccup was a bogie on the par five

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Speaker 1: to tenth And let's give Xander props for an extremely

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Speaker 1: clutch shot on the seventy second haul of the tournament.

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Speaker 1: He put his driving an awkward spot just outside of

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Speaker 1: fairway bunker, so he had to hit a long iron approach,

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Speaker 1: taking his stance in the bunker with the ball well

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Speaker 1: above his feet. That is a hard shot and Xander

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Speaker 1: wasn't gonna be able to get home into but he

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Speaker 1: did put the ball on the fairway about thirty or

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Speaker 1: forty yards short of the green, putting him in great

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Speaker 1: position to get up and down for Bertie, and that's

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Speaker 1: exactly what he did. I also need to give some

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Speaker 1: props to Bryson d Chambeau. Look, I'm not a big

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Speaker 1: Bryson fan. There's some things about his personality that kind

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Speaker 1: of rubbed me the wrong way. But credit where credit

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Speaker 1: is due. Bryson has brought it in the majors this year,

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Speaker 1: which is more than we can say for a lot

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Speaker 1: of the live tour guys. Bryson tied for sixth and

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Speaker 1: the Masters was in contention until Scotti Scheffler's a game

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Speaker 1: just blew the field away on the weekend, and Bryson

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Speaker 1: was in it till the end of the PGA, firing

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Speaker 1: a sixty four on Sunday and bertieing the eighteenth to

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Speaker 1: keep their pressure on Schoffley. Well done, Bryson, and I

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Speaker 1: don't know if you caught this boat. But there was

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Speaker 1: also a video of Bryson flipping a souven ball to

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Speaker 1: a kid after his round on Sunday. Some grown man

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Speaker 1: intercepted the ball and started to walk away. Bryson was

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Speaker 1: not having it walked over and demanded that the guy

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Speaker 1: give the ball back to the kid, which the guy

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Speaker 1: very sheepishly did. Good for you, Bryson, Yes, that was

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Speaker 1: the walk of shame. Indeed, I dislike Bryson d. Chambeau

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Speaker 1: far less today than I did a week ago.

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Speaker 2: I think a lot of it was idiosyncratic stuff that

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Speaker 2: he was he got so deep into his own brain

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Speaker 2: a couple of years ago when he was feuding with

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Speaker 2: Brooks kept gut. I think a lot of that was

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Speaker 2: just maturity things. He's still a young guy. What was

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Speaker 2: he twenty six? I don't I don't think I was

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Speaker 2: much better at.

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Speaker 1: Twenty six myself same same. Yeah. I mean he has,

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Speaker 1: you know, and he's had some weird run ins with

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Speaker 1: rules officials and things like that. But he's showing some

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Speaker 1: maturity to his credits. What else, Well, Victor Hobland snapped

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Speaker 1: out of his funk and got himself into contention. Really good,

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Speaker 1: really good, finished three shots back, but actually had a

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Speaker 1: thirteen footer on eighteen that would have put him in

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Speaker 1: a tie for the lead, missed that and then just

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Speaker 1: got sloppy with the comebacker. Morikawa terrific for three rounds

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Speaker 1: and just could not get anything cooking on Sunday, on

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Speaker 1: a day where everyone was making Bertie's Galory, just wasn't

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Speaker 1: hitting it close enough and wasn't not thinking.

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Speaker 2: Nothing went down for him on Sunday. It was sad

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Speaker 2: to watch because he was striping it all week and

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Speaker 2: Colin was one of my favorite picks last week and

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Speaker 2: it just didn't materialize on Sunday for whatever reason, nothing

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Speaker 2: went down and everybody else is making birdies all over

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Speaker 2: the place.

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Speaker 1: I had a top five bet on Markawa at six

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Speaker 1: to one, and I pretty much thought that was money

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Speaker 1: in the bank after Saturday nights. It should have been

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Speaker 1: wound up having to sweat it out a little bit

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Speaker 1: on Sunday, but Marikawa did finish in a tie for

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Speaker 1: fourth despite the final round disappointment. And oh yeah, I

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Speaker 1: should probably mention that the number one player in the

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Speaker 1: world was arrested before round two, led away in handcuffs

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Speaker 1: after a bizarre traffic incident just outside the entrance to Valhalla.

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Speaker 1: It all stemmed from Scotty trying to navigate his way

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Speaker 1: around a traffic stoppage caused by a fatal crash near

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Speaker 1: the club. Scotti eventually got out of jail on Friday

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Speaker 1: and shot a sixty six, but a seventy three on Sunday.

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Speaker 1: It took him out of contention. And finally, let's talk

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Speaker 1: about Valhalla itself. Bo I saw an interesting tweet from

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Speaker 1: Justin Ray of the twenty first group and the Athletic.

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Speaker 1: Justin noted that the field was collectively two hundred and

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Speaker 1: fourteen under par at Valhalla for the week, while the

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Speaker 1: next lowest full field score in the history of the

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Speaker 1: PGA Championship was forty over par at Rivieria in nineteen

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Speaker 1: ninety five, only two hundred and fifty four shots lower

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Speaker 1: than the next best scoring PGA Valhalla got a lot

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Speaker 1: of rain before the tournament and the greens were soft.

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Speaker 1: The course was basically defenseless despite its length. There's been

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Speaker 1: some debate about whether Valhalla is a major worthy course.

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Speaker 1: Had it been firmer and faster, yeah, I would have

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Speaker 1: played a little better, But I don't know. I'm not

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Speaker 1: a huge fan. Not many iconic holes like that. That

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Speaker 1: short par four on the back nine with the island

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Speaker 1: green looks cool, but it's.

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Speaker 2: Just looked cool and iron looked cool, toasty teed off

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Speaker 2: on Sunday.

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Speaker 1: Toasty did. Toasty was the one guy all week who

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Speaker 1: went for the green and.

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Speaker 2: One, but he dunked it.

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Speaker 1: Oh did he? Okay, I didn't see that. But for

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Speaker 1: the most guys, iron wedge, no danger is just kind

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Speaker 1: of boring.

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Speaker 2: Well, and that's the thing with that golf course is

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Speaker 2: a lot tougher. That course needs to be dried out.

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Speaker 2: The last few times that it's been there, it's been

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Speaker 2: in August, where it's obviously bone dry. There's not going

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Speaker 2: to be rain in the forecast anytime soon when it's

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Speaker 2: in the late summer. But this being late spring where

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Speaker 2: you get those rain showers, softening that course out makes

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Speaker 2: it go from a really tough test to complete the

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Speaker 2: easiest major of all time. And that's the way the

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Speaker 2: course is designed is to be completely different when it's

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Speaker 2: when it's dried out. That course would have been nasty

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Speaker 2: if it was dried out because those greens, being as

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Speaker 2: small as they are, with the rough beings as tough

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Speaker 2: as it is to spin the ball, those guys didn't

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Speaker 2: have to worry about spin coming out of that rough

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Speaker 2: because they knew if they hit it high enough in

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Speaker 2: the air, they just let it roll out to the

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Speaker 2: first cut and they could put or chip and again

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Speaker 2: they're going after. There were so many hole outs from

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Speaker 2: wedge distances and chipping chipins. There were so many long

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Speaker 2: puts because you don't have to worry about putting it

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Speaker 2: off the green and into a collection area, which we've

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Speaker 2: seen at Valhalla in years past. It's a totally different

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Speaker 2: golf course when it's moist like that, and having two

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Speaker 2: days of rain leading up to it that took took

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Speaker 2: away everything that course had as far as teeth.

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Speaker 1: As a result, we're probably going to see lower scores

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Speaker 1: for the PGA Championship than we saw not only the

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Speaker 1: week before a quell Hollow, but this week at Colonial

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Speaker 1: Country Club, which traditionally it does not have real low

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Speaker 1: winning scores. Any other takeaways from the PGA bow anything

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Speaker 1: on any of the players that captured Europe.

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Speaker 2: It was interesting to see the people the detractors of

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Speaker 2: the course being too easy, that's weather related. It's still

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Speaker 2: brought about one of the best leader boards on Sunday

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Speaker 2: that we've seen in a long time, and that is

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Speaker 2: what I was interested in. I was kind of indifferent.

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Speaker 2: I had a lot of stuff to do on Saturday,

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Speaker 2: but Sunday was for watching golf because I was not

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Speaker 2: going to miss that showdown and it was worth every

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Speaker 2: minute I spent watching it. That final round was riveting

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Speaker 2: and I had a lot of fun watching it. I

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Speaker 2: didn't care how many birdies were going off because all

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Speaker 2: the guys that were in contention, even Scotty on the

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Speaker 2: final round making his little charge from way off in

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Speaker 2: the distance to another top ten finish. It was just

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Speaker 2: incredible golf, no matter how easy it was for these guys,

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Speaker 2: don't I just don't put any stock in the course

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Speaker 2: being not a major tournament because it's still brought about

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Speaker 2: a very exciting finish between all of the best guys

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Speaker 2: that we were looking for.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, there was some fun golf. I love the shot

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Speaker 1: that Justin Thomas, the hometown boy, made from well above

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Speaker 1: the green. Somehow he missed it. He was like, God,

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Speaker 1: it seemed like fifteen feet above the green on this

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Speaker 1: ridge and hold it, which was just of course, the

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Speaker 1: crowd went wild. That was a fun shot. Yeah. So

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Speaker 1: we will get to the Charles Schwab Challenge in just

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Speaker 1: a minute, but first our friends at Underdog Fantasy are

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Speaker 1: letting you make picks on your favorite golfers all season long.

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Speaker 1: Just pick higher or lower on selected stats for two

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Speaker 1: to five golfers and you can win up to twenty

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Speaker 1: times your money in a single day. You can also

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Speaker 1: make rivals picks, choosing, for instance, which of two golf

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Speaker 1: golfers will shoot a better scorn around. Golf picks can

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Speaker 1: be combined with player stats from other sports too. Go

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Speaker 1: sign up at Underdog Fantasy with the promo code BP

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Speaker 1: Golf to get your special pick and to get a

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Speaker 1: first time deposit offer up to two hundred and fifty

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Speaker 1: dollars in bonus cash. We have three tournaments to go

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Speaker 1: before the US Open, and the first of those tournaments

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Speaker 1: is the Charles Schwab Challenge at Colonial Country Club in

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Speaker 1: Fort Worth, Texas. I'll go quickly on the course overview,

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Speaker 1: since we ran a little long on the recap of

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Speaker 1: the PGA, there was a lot to unpack. After all.

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Speaker 1: Colonials a par seventy that will play two two and

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Speaker 1: eighty nine yards. It's going to look a little different

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Speaker 1: this year. Apparently they brought in gil Hants to renovate

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Speaker 1: the course and to make it look like the older

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Speaker 1: version of Colonial. They took up some trees. They took

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Speaker 1: out some sand bunkers and turned them into grass bunkers,

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Speaker 1: and Colonial now has a bunch of barancas bo those

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Speaker 1: dry creek beds that can help with runoff if the

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Speaker 1: course gets heavy rains. But ultimately Colonial is probably going

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Speaker 1: to play a lot like it usually plays, which means

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Speaker 1: tight fairways, some dog legs, small greens. Ben Hogan once

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Speaker 1: said of this course, quote, a straight ball will get

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Speaker 1: you into more trouble at Colonial than any course. I know.

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Speaker 1: You need to be able to shot your shape your

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Speaker 1: shots on this course is what mister Hogan seemed to

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Speaker 1: be getting at recent winners at the Charles Schwab. Emiliano

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Speaker 1: Grio won here last year, beating Adam Shank in a playoff.

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Speaker 1: They'd each finish minus eight. In twenty twenty two, Sam

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Speaker 1: Burns beat Scottie Scheffler in a playoff, they were both

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Speaker 1: minus nine. Jason Kokrack shot minus fourteen to win here

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Speaker 1: in twenty twenty one, and in twenty twenty Daniel Berger

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Speaker 1: beat Colin Morricowe on a playoff. They were both minus fifteen.

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Speaker 1: So winning scores the last four years between minus eight

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Speaker 1: and minus fifteen. That's pretty tough by today's PGA Tour standard. Oh.

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Speaker 1: By the way, the weather this week mostly hot and breezy.

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Speaker 1: His in the upper seventies with the chance of understorms

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Speaker 1: on Thursday with the winds of ten to twenty miles

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Speaker 1: an hour, but then on Friday, Saturday and Sunday high's

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Speaker 1: in the low nineties with winds again in the ten

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Speaker 1: to twenty mile an hour range. It's going to be

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Speaker 1: cooking caff fort Worth Boe. Your thoughts on colonial and

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Speaker 1: what elements of a player's game will be especially important

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Speaker 1: this week.

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Speaker 2: It's accuracy, accuracy, accuracy, consistent off the t accuracy, precise

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Speaker 2: iron play, and putting on bent grass. These guys play

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Speaker 2: a good portion of their season on Bermuda and Poana.

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Speaker 2: Bent grass is the forgotten surface, and last week we

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Speaker 2: saw a lot of guys that putted well on bent

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Speaker 2: grass that don't normally put well on other surfaces. So

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Speaker 2: I am filtering again for bent grass surfaces. But accuracies everything.

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Speaker 2: Avoiding the big number here is huge because take note

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Speaker 2: of how everybody thought there'd be so much carnage at

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Speaker 2: Valhalla because of how long it is, and now they're

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Speaker 2: talking about, Oh, Valhalla is not major worthy because look

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Speaker 2: at what these guys could do to it, even when

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Speaker 2: it was quote unquote long too long. It's not about

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Speaker 2: the length, It's about how tough it is to make shots,

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Speaker 2: how tough it is to get the ball in the hole.

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Speaker 2: It doesn't need to be seventy six hundred yards to

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Speaker 2: make it difficult for these guys. We've seen single digit

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Speaker 2: results from the winner of this tournament many, many times.

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Speaker 2: You know why, because the golf course is a true

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Speaker 2: test of the golfing acumen. It doesn't matter how far

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Speaker 2: you hit it. You can hit it three hundred fifty

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Speaker 2: yards here, you might hit it two fifty. If you're

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Speaker 2: in the fairway, you have a lot better chance of

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Speaker 2: winning here because accuracy matters. And if you miss, the

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Speaker 2: penalty here is very severe because of how many trees

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Speaker 2: are in the way, big big post oak trees. We're

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Speaker 2: talking a lot of trees. Even though they removed some

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Speaker 2: of them. It's just like a mouthful of teeth. You

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Speaker 2: pull a couple it ain it ain't gonna make it

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Speaker 2: look any prettier. This course demands accuracy on every reshot,

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Speaker 2: and you have to be consistent. You have to be steady.

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Speaker 2: Eddie It's just going to come down to who can

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Speaker 2: not put themselves in trouble as often.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, this is classic Parkland Golf.

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Speaker 2: Tex Texas Parkland Golf too.

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Speaker 1: We will get to the odds in just a moment,

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Speaker 1: but first, if you want a chance to win a

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Speaker 1: free one year Betting Pros Premium subscription, you need to

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Speaker 1: subscribe to the Betting Pros YouTube channel right now, comment

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Speaker 1: below in this video and that's it. We'll be announcing

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Speaker 1: a winner right here on the channel, So turn on

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Speaker 1: those notifications so you can be alerted when new episodes

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Speaker 1: are up and to claim your prize. Let's get to

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Speaker 1: the odds. These are all courtesy of DraftKings. As of

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Speaker 1: Monday afternoon, Scotty Scheffler, who lives in nearby Dallas, is

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Speaker 1: an overwhelming favorite at plus two seventy five. Wow, I

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Speaker 1: think the shortest odds we've seen on Scotty all year,

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Speaker 1: in a year where Scotty has had some pretty short odds.

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Speaker 1: Colin Morikawa is plus twelve hundred. Jordan Spieth plus two thousand,

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Speaker 1: Max Homa plus twenty five hundred Tony Final plus twenty

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Speaker 1: eight hundred Seewu Kim plus three thousand Sung JM. Brian

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Speaker 1: Harmon and Harris English are plus thirty five hundred, Minwu

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Speaker 1: Lee and Denny McCarthy are plus four thousand, and Tom Hogy,

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Speaker 1: Sepstraka and Christian berzweden Hout are plus forty five hundred.

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Speaker 1: Is there anyone you like from this group?

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Speaker 2: I like a lot of these guys. I don't like

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Speaker 2: them enough to bet them. I think Scotty's way too short.

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Speaker 2: If you're gonna hope for and pray for an opportunity

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Speaker 2: to live, bet him at more than plus five hundred.

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00:15:33,920 --> 00:15:36,320
Speaker 2: That's what you should do. That's just a ludicrous price

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Speaker 2: at a big boy golf tournament. And honestly, I was

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Speaker 2: not impressed with Scotty off the tee last week. That's

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Speaker 2: what kind of held him back on Saturday when he

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Speaker 2: shot seventy three, took himself out of contention. He couldn't

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Speaker 2: find a fair way to save his life. And the

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Speaker 2: fairways of Valhalla are a lot wider than the ones

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Speaker 2: at Colonial. Colonial is gonna challenge him off the tee

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Speaker 2: accuracy wise, consistency wise. We know how good he is

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Speaker 2: on approach that. I'm not worried about that, But I

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Speaker 2: also worry about him putting on Bent as his worst surface.

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Speaker 2: He couldn't buy a bucket on most of the most

305
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Speaker 2: of the chances he got at Valhalla. That's the problem

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Speaker 2: with him is if you're outside of eight feet, Scotty,

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Speaker 2: he's not gonna make a lot of putts, and so

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Speaker 2: I'm not going to bet him anyway. But Klin Maarkawa

309
00:16:20,720 --> 00:16:24,240
Speaker 2: couldn't buy a putt. Jordan Speith has immense success here,

310
00:16:24,280 --> 00:16:27,440
Speaker 2: but I haven't seen his approach game beyond par this year.

311
00:16:27,720 --> 00:16:30,840
Speaker 2: His approach game has been atrocious this year. I'm going

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00:16:30,880 --> 00:16:32,520
Speaker 2: to go all the way down to Maxoma start at

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Speaker 2: plus twenty two hundred. Maximoma from Tea Green is outstanding

314
00:16:35,840 --> 00:16:37,840
Speaker 2: and he puts the lights out on Bent compared to

315
00:16:37,880 --> 00:16:41,280
Speaker 2: other surfaces. I think Maxhoma is my top pick and

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00:16:41,280 --> 00:16:43,360
Speaker 2: the guy I'm going to put the most force behind

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Speaker 2: on my betting card.

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Speaker 1: Interesting, Yeah, I mean, Scheffler has been piping hot all year,

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Speaker 1: and he does have a second and a third at

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Speaker 1: Colonial in recent years. Let's see the third last year,

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Speaker 1: second in twenty twenty two. But as you said, I mean,

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Speaker 1: like these odds, you just can't bet Scotty outright tournament.

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Speaker 2: And if we'd seen him dominate this tournament in the past,

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Speaker 2: then I'd be more comfortable with betting him at plus

325
00:17:06,920 --> 00:17:08,880
Speaker 2: three or four hundred. But plus two to seventy five

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Speaker 2: for a golf tournament with a full field, it's one

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00:17:11,280 --> 00:17:14,480
Speaker 2: hundred and fifty plus skies in this tournament. Scotty Scheffler

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00:17:14,680 --> 00:17:17,560
Speaker 2: doesn't carry that much weight, and yes, he very well

329
00:17:17,600 --> 00:17:20,040
Speaker 2: could win this. You tip your cap to that. You

330
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Speaker 2: can't just bet that on golf. You're not gonna get

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Speaker 2: any kind of payout unless you got half a mill

332
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Speaker 2: to throw down like Drake or Dave Portnoy. That's not

333
00:17:28,760 --> 00:17:31,680
Speaker 2: gonna be enough to really make it worth your while.

334
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Speaker 2: It's like, yeah, you can root for Scotty Scheffler to

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Speaker 2: do the unimaginable and win another golf tournament, but for

336
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Speaker 2: most of us, we're not throwing our weight around like that.

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Speaker 2: It's just not smart. You can get better odds on

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00:17:42,000 --> 00:17:45,760
Speaker 2: a baseball game or a basketball first half total. It's

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Speaker 2: just not smart betting.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, now Speeth is interesting. He is twenty to one

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Speaker 1: and he has seven top tens at Colonial in his

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Speaker 1: last nine appearances, including a win in twenty sixteen and

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Speaker 1: second place finishes in twenty fifteen, twenty seventeen, and twenty

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Speaker 1: twenty one.

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Speaker 2: He's due.

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Speaker 1: But accuracy, well, I mean you said it like accurately,

347
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Speaker 1: Like his success at this tournament has sort.

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Speaker 2: Of He's He's Houdini. That's that's the reason why he's

349
00:18:13,960 --> 00:18:17,440
Speaker 2: successful everywhere. Yup is even when he's in trouble, that's

350
00:18:17,480 --> 00:18:19,639
Speaker 2: the one guy you expect to get out of trouble

351
00:18:19,800 --> 00:18:22,240
Speaker 2: and do just fine. And in a grinder type of

352
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Speaker 2: event where the scores are depressed, he's another guy that

353
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Speaker 2: can grind it out with the best of them. So

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Speaker 2: there's no mystery to him contending here every year. It's

355
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Speaker 2: a home course, just just like for Scheffler. For me,

356
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Speaker 2: it's just I want to see a guy who's getting

357
00:18:36,520 --> 00:18:39,280
Speaker 2: good odds to win, who I can actually picture winning

358
00:18:39,720 --> 00:18:40,200
Speaker 2: this year.

359
00:18:40,720 --> 00:18:43,760
Speaker 1: One guy I kind of like this week is Brian Harmon,

360
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Speaker 1: who is no I mean thirty five to one, And

361
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Speaker 1: you talk about accuracy, like this guy is mister accuracy,

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Speaker 1: Like not long off the tee, but he's gonna be

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00:18:53,320 --> 00:18:55,600
Speaker 1: in the fair way all week three top tens here

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Speaker 1: in the last ten years.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, he should. He should do fine here. I'm just

366
00:18:59,760 --> 00:19:03,240
Speaker 2: trying to find him in my model, his approach has

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00:19:03,359 --> 00:19:06,520
Speaker 2: been really bad. Like that's the one thing that gets

368
00:19:06,600 --> 00:19:09,040
Speaker 2: Brian Harmon is he he's a great putter. He is

369
00:19:09,080 --> 00:19:11,760
Speaker 2: a good short game, he's accurate off the tee, but

370
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Speaker 2: one of the worst done approach in this field. For

371
00:19:14,080 --> 00:19:16,520
Speaker 2: the approach distances, I'm looking at between one hundred and

372
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Speaker 2: twenty five and one seventy five. He's at the very bottom.

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Speaker 2: And that's that's weird for a guy who's basing his

374
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Speaker 2: entire success on accuracy. That's how he was Champion Golf

375
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Speaker 2: for the Year last year. Is he he put it

376
00:19:29,240 --> 00:19:31,359
Speaker 2: on the green and that dude didn't miss a single

377
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Speaker 2: putt that week, and it just it hasn't been the

378
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Speaker 2: same this year for Brian Harmon. It's not the same

379
00:19:38,040 --> 00:19:39,879
Speaker 2: golfer that we saw last year when he was on

380
00:19:39,920 --> 00:19:40,600
Speaker 2: a real heater.

381
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Speaker 1: Now, Harris English has four top twenty fives in his

382
00:19:44,040 --> 00:19:47,360
Speaker 1: last seven events. He finished twelfth at Colonial last year

383
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Speaker 1: and was runner up here in twenty sixteen. He's intriguing.

384
00:19:51,280 --> 00:19:54,120
Speaker 1: Sung JM has been in pretty good form lately. Two

385
00:19:54,240 --> 00:19:57,280
Speaker 1: top fifteen's here in the last four years. I've always

386
00:19:57,320 --> 00:19:59,680
Speaker 1: also missed the cut twice to either of those guys

387
00:19:59,840 --> 00:20:00,560
Speaker 1: entr you at all.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I think they all carry weight here, I'm looking

389
00:20:03,280 --> 00:20:05,359
Speaker 2: at all of this guy c just mentioned right in

390
00:20:05,400 --> 00:20:08,119
Speaker 2: that same top ten area of my model. That's a

391
00:20:08,160 --> 00:20:10,800
Speaker 2: really good sign. Those are strong picks, especially at their

392
00:20:10,800 --> 00:20:14,720
Speaker 2: odds being pretty soft. These are guys that can definitely

393
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Speaker 2: win this thing, especially in the grinded up type of tournament.

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00:20:17,800 --> 00:20:21,080
Speaker 2: I'm encouraged by Sung Jm's improvement the last few weeks

395
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Speaker 2: that this is exactly the type of course he does

396
00:20:23,840 --> 00:20:27,040
Speaker 2: well at where off the t accuracy is supreme and

397
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Speaker 2: the approach distances aren't that long. He's gonna be hitting

398
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Speaker 2: a lot of short irons into these greens, and with

399
00:20:32,720 --> 00:20:35,000
Speaker 2: a short iron, this guy is a pretty strong player.

400
00:20:35,040 --> 00:20:37,680
Speaker 2: And if he can make any putts at all, Sung

401
00:20:37,760 --> 00:20:40,760
Speaker 2: Jam should do just fine. Here. English is up there

402
00:20:40,800 --> 00:20:44,000
Speaker 2: with me too, And of course see what Kim is it.

403
00:20:44,480 --> 00:20:46,880
Speaker 2: He's kind of just having a really consistent year, which

404
00:20:46,960 --> 00:20:49,280
Speaker 2: is a change for him. He's usually a really streaky player,

405
00:20:49,560 --> 00:20:52,000
Speaker 2: but this year he's been consistently pretty good.

406
00:20:52,440 --> 00:20:55,400
Speaker 1: Yeah, that is, normally he is the you know, miss

407
00:20:55,480 --> 00:20:58,240
Speaker 1: three cuts and then run up a couple of top

408
00:20:58,280 --> 00:20:59,040
Speaker 1: tens in a row.

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00:20:59,080 --> 00:21:03,320
Speaker 2: A plod him for working on his volatility.

410
00:21:04,800 --> 00:21:06,600
Speaker 1: All right, let's look at the odds on some of

411
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Speaker 1: the mid range options. Tom Kim, Chris Kirk, Billy Horschell,

412
00:21:10,920 --> 00:21:15,439
Speaker 1: and Andrew Putnam r. Plus five thousand, Maverick McNeely, Keith Mitchell,

413
00:21:15,640 --> 00:21:19,040
Speaker 1: Justin Rose, Austin Ack wrote Akshay Battia and Adam Scott

414
00:21:19,080 --> 00:21:22,920
Speaker 1: are all plus fifty five hundred. Thomas Dietrie, Taylor Moore,

415
00:21:23,400 --> 00:21:27,160
Speaker 1: Lucas Glover, Keegan Bradley and Aaron Rye are plus six thousand,

416
00:21:27,560 --> 00:21:30,560
Speaker 1: Daniel Berger's plus sixty five hundred, and JT. Post In

417
00:21:30,760 --> 00:21:33,240
Speaker 1: is plus seven thousand. Do you like any of the

418
00:21:33,280 --> 00:21:34,159
Speaker 1: mid range players?

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00:21:34,240 --> 00:21:38,359
Speaker 2: What a group? What a group? I'm looking at my model,

420
00:21:38,400 --> 00:21:40,679
Speaker 2: going check, check, check. I'm going to be betting on

421
00:21:40,720 --> 00:21:43,800
Speaker 2: five of those guys, starting with starting with Sepstraw at

422
00:21:43,840 --> 00:21:47,280
Speaker 2: forty five to one. That guy is tenth in my model.

423
00:21:48,160 --> 00:21:51,040
Speaker 2: Very very accurate player. He shapes the ball well, right

424
00:21:51,080 --> 00:21:52,160
Speaker 2: to left, left, right.

425
00:21:52,040 --> 00:21:52,600
Speaker 1: Up and down.

426
00:21:52,720 --> 00:21:55,720
Speaker 2: I love guys like that' Ben Hogan said it himself,

427
00:21:56,040 --> 00:21:58,439
Speaker 2: And if anybody knows about colonial, it's Ben Frickin Hogan.

428
00:22:00,040 --> 00:22:03,080
Speaker 2: Straka shapes the ball beautifully. He's the kind of guy

429
00:22:03,080 --> 00:22:05,760
Speaker 2: who's dangerous here because in a grinded out type tournament.

430
00:22:05,760 --> 00:22:07,920
Speaker 2: Remember when he knocked down Shane Lowry on the back

431
00:22:08,040 --> 00:22:11,200
Speaker 2: nine at the Honda Classic, very similar type tournament here.

432
00:22:11,560 --> 00:22:13,880
Speaker 2: Tom Kim is next at fifty to one. I think

433
00:22:13,920 --> 00:22:17,760
Speaker 2: he was very, very impressive last week of Valhalla. He

434
00:22:18,800 --> 00:22:22,160
Speaker 2: was more consistent and despite not having the length off

435
00:22:22,200 --> 00:22:24,600
Speaker 2: the tee, he held his own on approach in the

436
00:22:24,640 --> 00:22:27,760
Speaker 2: short game. It didn't fall apart for him at Valhalla.

437
00:22:27,800 --> 00:22:30,320
Speaker 2: I think is another great course for him because a

438
00:22:30,359 --> 00:22:32,880
Speaker 2: comp coourse to this place is Sedgefield, where he got

439
00:22:32,880 --> 00:22:36,040
Speaker 2: his first PG Tour win. Austin Ek wrote fifty five

440
00:22:36,080 --> 00:22:38,240
Speaker 2: to one ak shehe Batia fifty five to win. Both

441
00:22:38,280 --> 00:22:41,720
Speaker 2: of those guys are incredible plays for their value. Akhe

442
00:22:41,720 --> 00:22:43,439
Speaker 2: Batia with a short iron in his hand might be

443
00:22:43,440 --> 00:22:45,640
Speaker 2: the best player in the world. So if you can,

444
00:22:46,000 --> 00:22:48,800
Speaker 2: if Akshay can go out there and place his ball

445
00:22:48,840 --> 00:22:51,840
Speaker 2: at one hundred and twenty five yards and have a

446
00:22:51,840 --> 00:22:54,720
Speaker 2: bunch of wedges into these greens, he could run away

447
00:22:54,760 --> 00:22:57,240
Speaker 2: with the saying that's how good he is if he's

448
00:22:57,280 --> 00:23:00,399
Speaker 2: in the fairway. And he's been a lot better in

449
00:23:00,440 --> 00:23:03,040
Speaker 2: that regard on these types of courses where maybe he

450
00:23:03,040 --> 00:23:05,400
Speaker 2: doesn't have to driver off the tee. There's not very

451
00:23:05,400 --> 00:23:09,440
Speaker 2: many driver holes at Colonial to begin with, and he's

452
00:23:09,440 --> 00:23:11,560
Speaker 2: not going to be tempted to pull out the big stick.

453
00:23:11,720 --> 00:23:13,840
Speaker 2: Should try to cut corners of dog laies because it

454
00:23:13,880 --> 00:23:17,040
Speaker 2: doesn't happen here. The trees are too tall. Akha is

455
00:23:17,240 --> 00:23:19,879
Speaker 2: a really good shape of the golf ball. Again, just

456
00:23:19,920 --> 00:23:23,520
Speaker 2: like Straka, I love Ackha Bata at a course like this,

457
00:23:24,000 --> 00:23:27,240
Speaker 2: and the way he's playing right now is it should

458
00:23:27,280 --> 00:23:29,479
Speaker 2: take notice that he's still at fifty five to one.

459
00:23:29,600 --> 00:23:33,000
Speaker 2: That's an incredibly soft line for a guy of his caliber.

460
00:23:33,480 --> 00:23:35,639
Speaker 2: And another guy that's in the top ten of my model,

461
00:23:35,680 --> 00:23:38,639
Speaker 2: Aaron Rae sixty to one, number six to my model.

462
00:23:38,760 --> 00:23:41,640
Speaker 2: He is number one in this field and opportunities gained

463
00:23:41,680 --> 00:23:45,000
Speaker 2: over his last twenty four rounds. That's better than Scottie,

464
00:23:45,080 --> 00:23:48,000
Speaker 2: that's better than Colin, that's better than everybody in this field.

465
00:23:48,080 --> 00:23:52,240
Speaker 2: Jordan's speed, opportunities gained. Aaron Raie is filling that bucket.

466
00:23:52,280 --> 00:23:55,440
Speaker 2: He's also great off the tee accuracy wise. If he

467
00:23:55,480 --> 00:23:58,159
Speaker 2: could get close to the close to these pins on approach,

468
00:23:58,680 --> 00:24:00,800
Speaker 2: then we're looking at another guy and from the back

469
00:24:00,960 --> 00:24:03,000
Speaker 2: who could make a lot of birdies on a really

470
00:24:03,000 --> 00:24:03,560
Speaker 2: tough course.

471
00:24:04,080 --> 00:24:08,040
Speaker 1: Your fondness for Austin Ekrot is music to my ears.

472
00:24:08,119 --> 00:24:11,240
Speaker 1: I've had my eye on him, like since I started

473
00:24:11,280 --> 00:24:14,520
Speaker 1: looking at this tournament. Eighteenth at the PGA last week,

474
00:24:15,280 --> 00:24:19,840
Speaker 1: sixteenth here in his debut at Colonial and like he

475
00:24:19,920 --> 00:24:22,919
Speaker 1: showed he could close at the Cognizant Classic back in March,

476
00:24:23,440 --> 00:24:27,560
Speaker 1: which he won. To see accuracy, very accurate. And while

477
00:24:27,560 --> 00:24:30,320
Speaker 1: he might not be a Texas guy, bow, Austin Ekrot

478
00:24:30,400 --> 00:24:34,640
Speaker 1: is from Oklahoma, so he is a regional oil guy.

479
00:24:34,440 --> 00:24:35,520
Speaker 1: They don't He's.

480
00:24:35,400 --> 00:24:37,560
Speaker 2: Gonna have aro, He's going to have some detractors in

481
00:24:37,600 --> 00:24:38,440
Speaker 2: the crowd.

482
00:24:38,840 --> 00:24:42,040
Speaker 1: The gallery might throw some booze his way, but hopefully

483
00:24:42,080 --> 00:24:44,160
Speaker 1: that won't hold that against him. I'm kind of intrigued

484
00:24:44,160 --> 00:24:48,160
Speaker 1: by Thomas Deetree. The Belgian has had three top tens

485
00:24:48,200 --> 00:24:50,920
Speaker 1: in his last five events, tied for fourth at the PGA,

486
00:24:51,480 --> 00:24:54,280
Speaker 1: tied for second at the Houston Open in late March,

487
00:24:54,320 --> 00:24:57,000
Speaker 1: so he's already had some success in Texas. And last

488
00:24:57,080 --> 00:24:59,840
Speaker 1: year in his Charles Schwab Dave debut, he finished as

489
00:25:00,480 --> 00:25:04,680
Speaker 1: twenty first and bo you pointed this guy out last

490
00:25:04,720 --> 00:25:08,360
Speaker 1: week as someone you liked Justin Rose, who had been

491
00:25:08,359 --> 00:25:13,120
Speaker 1: informed this year, bought strong week at the PGA, finishing sixth.

492
00:25:13,160 --> 00:25:15,880
Speaker 1: And he is a good track record at Colonial one

493
00:25:15,920 --> 00:25:18,720
Speaker 1: here in twenty eighteen and was third and twenty twenty

494
00:25:19,000 --> 00:25:22,640
Speaker 1: twelfth last year. So maybe if he kind of came

495
00:25:22,640 --> 00:25:25,280
Speaker 1: out of the doll drums at the PGA, he could

496
00:25:25,320 --> 00:25:28,679
Speaker 1: potentially make noise this week. What about long shots bo

497
00:25:29,080 --> 00:25:31,840
Speaker 1: anyone with odds of seventy five to one or longer

498
00:25:31,880 --> 00:25:32,520
Speaker 1: you're looking at.

499
00:25:32,720 --> 00:25:34,679
Speaker 2: Yeah, one of them popped up to me, and that

500
00:25:35,000 --> 00:25:37,320
Speaker 2: was a guy that I didn't talk about when he

501
00:25:37,400 --> 00:25:39,440
Speaker 2: choked away the win a couple of weeks ago. Ben

502
00:25:39,520 --> 00:25:42,239
Speaker 2: Coles at two hundred and fifty to one, that's the

503
00:25:42,280 --> 00:25:44,760
Speaker 2: one I have my circle around. This guy's red hot

504
00:25:44,920 --> 00:25:48,240
Speaker 2: showed up last week at Valhalla. This guy makes berdies

505
00:25:48,280 --> 00:25:51,320
Speaker 2: on tough courses. He's a very accurate player, and yeah,

506
00:25:51,320 --> 00:25:53,040
Speaker 2: the pressure got to him a few weeks ago. He

507
00:25:53,080 --> 00:25:55,920
Speaker 2: should have won that tournament. But I think that as

508
00:25:55,920 --> 00:25:58,840
Speaker 2: he gets more experience under his belt, this guy's really talented.

509
00:25:59,080 --> 00:26:01,800
Speaker 2: We just saw him really chase that lead for three

510
00:26:01,880 --> 00:26:05,200
Speaker 2: rounds at the PGA last week. I think he's he's

511
00:26:05,240 --> 00:26:09,119
Speaker 2: destined to be an everyday type leaderboard player, and this

512
00:26:09,240 --> 00:26:10,600
Speaker 2: is the kind of place where he can he can

513
00:26:10,640 --> 00:26:12,879
Speaker 2: make some noise, especially with his short iron play. A

514
00:26:13,000 --> 00:26:16,600
Speaker 2: very similar player from the right side as ak Shavatia,

515
00:26:16,600 --> 00:26:18,480
Speaker 2: where if he can find this form off the tee,

516
00:26:18,640 --> 00:26:22,000
Speaker 2: he's a very dangerous birdie making machine as long as

517
00:26:22,000 --> 00:26:24,040
Speaker 2: he can get off the tee relatively well.

518
00:26:24,359 --> 00:26:28,040
Speaker 1: Anyone else, any any real deep sleepers or you uh,

519
00:26:28,160 --> 00:26:30,920
Speaker 1: I mean you like that mid range group so much?

520
00:26:30,960 --> 00:26:32,480
Speaker 2: I can ye the midrange is going to get a

521
00:26:32,480 --> 00:26:35,400
Speaker 2: lot of my attention. But I might take a stab

522
00:26:35,480 --> 00:26:38,639
Speaker 2: at Chandler Phillips at three hundred to one, but the

523
00:26:38,640 --> 00:26:40,840
Speaker 2: rest of these guys have just been in such terrible

524
00:26:40,880 --> 00:26:44,600
Speaker 2: form that they're appropriately priced down there, So I had

525
00:26:44,640 --> 00:26:47,879
Speaker 2: nothing really popped up on the top of my list here.

526
00:26:48,320 --> 00:26:52,080
Speaker 1: I was mildly intrigued by Charlie Hoffman at one fifty

527
00:26:52,119 --> 00:26:55,080
Speaker 1: to one, but like if it was two hundred or

528
00:26:55,080 --> 00:26:57,520
Speaker 1: two hundred and fifty to one, because he's he's shown

529
00:26:57,600 --> 00:27:00,320
Speaker 1: some signs of life this year in Colonials traditional been

530
00:27:00,359 --> 00:27:03,040
Speaker 1: a pretty good track for him. But one hundred and

531
00:27:03,119 --> 00:27:04,880
Speaker 1: fifty to one, I'm not sure we're getting the right

532
00:27:04,920 --> 00:27:06,440
Speaker 1: price for a long shot like that.

533
00:27:06,840 --> 00:27:09,760
Speaker 2: Yeah, pay attention to accurate guys like Chez Reeve's at

534
00:27:09,800 --> 00:27:11,480
Speaker 2: three hundred and one. I'm not a huge fan of

535
00:27:11,560 --> 00:27:14,960
Speaker 2: Chez rev, but he fits the course well. Troy Merritt's

536
00:27:14,960 --> 00:27:18,080
Speaker 2: another one of those guys. Callum arn been pretty terrible

537
00:27:18,119 --> 00:27:20,760
Speaker 2: all year, but his last appearance at a course like

538
00:27:20,840 --> 00:27:24,800
Speaker 2: this he was okay. Martin Laird, Yeah, those those guys

539
00:27:24,800 --> 00:27:27,399
Speaker 2: are on the radar, but not enough for me to

540
00:27:27,440 --> 00:27:29,879
Speaker 2: bet on. Tyler.

541
00:27:30,119 --> 00:27:31,480
Speaker 1: What do you have on your betting card?

542
00:27:31,800 --> 00:27:37,480
Speaker 2: All right, so my betting card is your guy, our guy,

543
00:27:39,880 --> 00:27:42,760
Speaker 2: Maxoma twenty two to one, and then I'm gonna throw

544
00:27:42,840 --> 00:27:47,080
Speaker 2: half unit bets and top ten kickers on Sepstraca, Tom Kim,

545
00:27:47,359 --> 00:27:51,000
Speaker 2: Austin Neck wrote Ox Shavatilla and Aaron Raie, and I'll

546
00:27:51,040 --> 00:27:53,639
Speaker 2: take a deep, deep shot on Ben Coles.

547
00:27:53,920 --> 00:27:57,120
Speaker 1: Oh here, uh, I don't have him yet. I might

548
00:27:57,160 --> 00:28:00,240
Speaker 1: have to think hard about Sepstraca, but you did talk

549
00:28:00,320 --> 00:28:01,960
Speaker 1: me into ak Shay, so as of.

550
00:28:01,960 --> 00:28:04,840
Speaker 2: Now I'm five to talk Baby Batilla.

551
00:28:05,080 --> 00:28:08,560
Speaker 1: I know. I mean it's we have talked. I talked

552
00:28:08,600 --> 00:28:11,800
Speaker 1: about that is my guy. I'm taking Sung Jay at

553
00:28:11,840 --> 00:28:15,719
Speaker 1: thirty five to one, and then I'm betting three guys

554
00:28:15,760 --> 00:28:18,160
Speaker 1: who are at fifty five to one, I'm I'm gonna

555
00:28:18,160 --> 00:28:20,880
Speaker 1: put something on Justin Rose. I liked what I saw

556
00:28:20,920 --> 00:28:25,199
Speaker 1: at the PGA, Austin Akrout for sure, and Akshay and

557
00:28:25,200 --> 00:28:27,679
Speaker 1: then I'm also going to bet Thomas Detree at sixty

558
00:28:27,720 --> 00:28:31,240
Speaker 1: to one. So those are my five guys now before

559
00:28:31,280 --> 00:28:33,359
Speaker 1: we get to our one and done picks. If you're

560
00:28:33,400 --> 00:28:35,359
Speaker 1: playing in a one and done golf pool, or if

561
00:28:35,400 --> 00:28:37,960
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562
00:28:38,000 --> 00:28:40,760
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563
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564
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565
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566
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567
00:28:54,680 --> 00:28:57,080
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568
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569
00:29:00,320 --> 00:29:03,320
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571
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573
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574
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575
00:29:22,480 --> 00:29:26,479
Speaker 1: slash Fantasy Pros now for our one and done picks.

576
00:29:27,000 --> 00:29:30,120
Speaker 1: Last week of the PGA, BO and I both tried

577
00:29:30,120 --> 00:29:33,120
Speaker 1: to throw haymakers at each other. I had Brooks Koepka.

578
00:29:33,520 --> 00:29:35,880
Speaker 1: You finished tied for twenty six, good for one hundred

579
00:29:35,880 --> 00:29:39,560
Speaker 1: and thirteen thousand, nine hundred and sixty two dollars. You

580
00:29:39,720 --> 00:29:46,160
Speaker 1: took Scottie Scheffler finish who got arrested? Of course, who

581
00:29:46,840 --> 00:29:49,280
Speaker 1: did tie for eighth, which in a major that was

582
00:29:49,320 --> 00:29:52,320
Speaker 1: good for five hundred, five hundred and twenty one thousand,

583
00:29:52,400 --> 00:29:54,479
Speaker 1: four hundred and seventeen dollars. So you did make up

584
00:29:54,480 --> 00:29:57,320
Speaker 1: some ground on me, Bo about four hundred thousand dollars,

585
00:29:57,560 --> 00:29:59,160
Speaker 1: but it probably wasn't the heavy punch.

586
00:29:59,160 --> 00:30:01,080
Speaker 2: You won at a time he takes the best golf

587
00:30:01,120 --> 00:30:02,440
Speaker 2: in the world, he gets arrested.

588
00:30:05,160 --> 00:30:07,960
Speaker 1: So I'm in about six point seven million. You're just

589
00:30:08,040 --> 00:30:11,200
Speaker 1: shy a five point seven million, and you are up

590
00:30:11,320 --> 00:30:13,920
Speaker 1: first this week? Boa, who you got?

591
00:30:14,280 --> 00:30:17,959
Speaker 2: So A lot has been said about Texas natives, Jordan Spieth,

592
00:30:18,080 --> 00:30:22,600
Speaker 2: Scottie Scheffler, blah, blah blah. How about Dallas native Tom Kim.

593
00:30:23,080 --> 00:30:24,800
Speaker 2: Tom Kim is my pick this week.

594
00:30:25,080 --> 00:30:29,080
Speaker 1: Tom Kim, all right, we're going double Dallas here because

595
00:30:29,120 --> 00:30:31,720
Speaker 1: I'm gonna take Speth. I just don't know where else

596
00:30:31,720 --> 00:30:36,600
Speaker 1: I'm going to use him. And here. Yeah, even though

597
00:30:36,640 --> 00:30:40,240
Speaker 1: the game doesn't fit. I mean, the guy's just booking

598
00:30:40,320 --> 00:30:42,320
Speaker 1: top tens at Colonial left and right.

599
00:30:42,480 --> 00:30:45,720
Speaker 2: Seems like he just enjoys being here, even if he's

600
00:30:45,760 --> 00:30:47,320
Speaker 2: clanking off the oak trees all day.

601
00:30:48,320 --> 00:30:52,200
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's home, you know, Fort Worth, Dallas. He's home

602
00:30:52,400 --> 00:30:54,680
Speaker 1: here and that's going to do it for this week's show.

603
00:30:55,000 --> 00:30:57,479
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604
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605
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606
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607
00:31:06,800 --> 00:31:09,480
Speaker 1: And please come join Bow and I again next week

608
00:31:09,480 --> 00:31:14,440
Speaker 1: when we'll be previewing the RBC Canadian Open, eating Poutine,

609
00:31:14,760 --> 00:31:18,640
Speaker 1: throwing back La Bats Blues. Until then, so long.

610
00:31:18,480 --> 00:31:21,880
Speaker 3: Everyone, thanks for listening to the Betting Pros podcast. If

611
00:31:21,880 --> 00:31:24,280
Speaker 3: you love the show, the best freeway to support us

612
00:31:24,320 --> 00:31:27,800
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613
00:31:28,080 --> 00:31:30,720
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614
00:31:30,800 --> 00:31:34,480
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615
00:31:34,520 --> 00:31:48,600
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