1 00:00:03,920 --> 00:00:07,000 Speaker 1: Hello, and welcome to Stephanomics, the podcast that brings the 2 00:00:07,000 --> 00:00:14,960 Speaker 1: global economy to you. Trade wars are good and easy 3 00:00:15,000 --> 00:00:18,239 Speaker 1: to win. That was President Trump's famous tweet just over 4 00:00:18,320 --> 00:00:20,800 Speaker 1: a year ago when he announced tariff's on steel and 5 00:00:20,840 --> 00:00:24,200 Speaker 1: aluminum from China and other countries. There have been plenty 6 00:00:24,239 --> 00:00:26,239 Speaker 1: of twists and turns in the trade wars since then, 7 00:00:26,360 --> 00:00:31,440 Speaker 1: But who's winning well, Trade lawyers definitely, and yes, trade 8 00:00:31,480 --> 00:00:34,560 Speaker 1: reporters are. World Trade team here at Bloomberg has doubled 9 00:00:34,600 --> 00:00:37,400 Speaker 1: in the past year. But when it comes to countries, 10 00:00:37,479 --> 00:00:40,680 Speaker 1: economic theory says no one really wins a trade war. 11 00:00:41,080 --> 00:00:42,640 Speaker 1: And if you look at the way the trade battles 12 00:00:42,640 --> 00:00:46,479 Speaker 1: have hurt exports in China and raised costs and uncertainty 13 00:00:46,560 --> 00:00:50,279 Speaker 1: for US businesses, you'd be inclined to agree, but we 14 00:00:50,360 --> 00:00:53,440 Speaker 1: might be looking in the wrong place. In a minute, 15 00:00:53,560 --> 00:00:56,640 Speaker 1: I'm going to talk to Bloomberg's Asian Economy columnist Dan 16 00:00:56,720 --> 00:00:59,920 Speaker 1: Moss about the impact of trade wars and tougher global 17 00:01:00,000 --> 00:01:04,840 Speaker 1: competition on Asia. But first, our Southeast Asian Economies reporter 18 00:01:04,959 --> 00:01:08,360 Speaker 1: Michelle jam Riscoe has been to one country that does 19 00:01:08,440 --> 00:01:29,520 Speaker 1: seem to be winning Donald Trump's trade war. This is Vietnam, 20 00:01:29,520 --> 00:01:32,320 Speaker 1: where motorbikes raced through the streets of the capital Hanoi. 21 00:01:32,920 --> 00:01:36,039 Speaker 1: Forty years after the war with America, the Vietnamese have 22 00:01:36,120 --> 00:01:38,360 Speaker 1: the most favorable opinion of the US out of any 23 00:01:38,400 --> 00:01:42,080 Speaker 1: foreign populace, according to the Pew Research Center, and Donald 24 00:01:42,080 --> 00:01:44,160 Speaker 1: Trump may just have given them another reason to like 25 00:01:44,240 --> 00:01:46,800 Speaker 1: America in the form of his trade war with China. 26 00:01:47,480 --> 00:01:49,440 Speaker 1: That's because the tariff battle is giving a boost to 27 00:01:49,520 --> 00:01:52,560 Speaker 1: Vietnam's economy, which was already one of the world's fastest 28 00:01:52,600 --> 00:01:55,080 Speaker 1: growing thanks in part to foreign business is looking for 29 00:01:55,160 --> 00:02:02,000 Speaker 1: cheaper factories my college when you in and I visited Shenwa, 30 00:02:02,200 --> 00:02:04,880 Speaker 1: a furniture maker in Hanoi, to get a firsthand look 31 00:02:04,880 --> 00:02:08,640 Speaker 1: at how Vietnamese business is reaping the benefits. Shenwa started 32 00:02:08,639 --> 00:02:11,560 Speaker 1: as a bicycle company in and in the decades since 33 00:02:11,720 --> 00:02:14,720 Speaker 1: has evolved into a big brand within Vietnam for home 34 00:02:14,919 --> 00:02:17,799 Speaker 1: office and even the seats in parliament. But it also 35 00:02:17,880 --> 00:02:20,760 Speaker 1: has a solid portfolio of long time international partners like 36 00:02:20,800 --> 00:02:24,160 Speaker 1: Aikia and Toyota. A family that's growing in part thanks 37 00:02:24,160 --> 00:02:33,000 Speaker 1: to those tariffs. Here's CEO Laid Wei Ang. We expect 38 00:02:33,000 --> 00:02:35,600 Speaker 1: new orders to increase a lot due to the trade war, 39 00:02:36,040 --> 00:02:38,560 Speaker 1: but it's hard to quantify it. Right now, there are 40 00:02:38,600 --> 00:02:41,160 Speaker 1: more companies getting in touch with us to switch from 41 00:02:41,240 --> 00:02:44,160 Speaker 1: China to our products, but in order to turn them 42 00:02:44,160 --> 00:02:46,560 Speaker 1: into real contracts, we still have a lot to do 43 00:02:47,000 --> 00:02:49,960 Speaker 1: and many things to change. It's quite difficult to compete 44 00:02:50,000 --> 00:03:02,120 Speaker 1: with China in terms of quantity and cost. Here on 45 00:03:02,200 --> 00:03:04,600 Speaker 1: Ang's factory floor is where that struggle to compete with 46 00:03:04,720 --> 00:03:08,320 Speaker 1: China is playing out, and already with some success. You 47 00:03:08,320 --> 00:03:11,079 Speaker 1: can tell Ang really wants to prioritize not just quantity 48 00:03:11,120 --> 00:03:18,720 Speaker 1: but quality. He aims to compete with Japanese craftsmanship very much. 49 00:03:18,720 --> 00:03:21,120 Speaker 1: In each of these buildings, you can smell the burnt 50 00:03:21,160 --> 00:03:26,800 Speaker 1: metal and creative sparks flying work. Here's still gently at 51 00:03:26,840 --> 00:03:30,680 Speaker 1: each of their stations in different zones, organized as Mr 52 00:03:30,680 --> 00:03:39,040 Speaker 1: Ain said in a system that they took from Ng. 53 00:03:39,320 --> 00:03:42,160 Speaker 1: An average size, boyish looking man with a big smile 54 00:03:42,680 --> 00:03:45,640 Speaker 1: proudly escorts us around his village of factory buildings about 55 00:03:45,640 --> 00:03:49,640 Speaker 1: an hour outside downtown Hannoi. We're just the latest onlookers. 56 00:03:49,960 --> 00:03:52,040 Speaker 1: In the past three months, he's been visited by about 57 00:03:52,080 --> 00:03:54,960 Speaker 1: ten potential new clients who are considering moving orders from 58 00:03:55,040 --> 00:03:58,400 Speaker 1: China to Shenhwa. They've come from all over both the 59 00:03:58,480 --> 00:04:01,000 Speaker 1: U s and China, as well as South Korea and Japan, 60 00:04:01,160 --> 00:04:04,720 Speaker 1: and also from much further away like Romania. He's almost 61 00:04:04,720 --> 00:04:07,800 Speaker 1: sure the fresh business will help him smash a growth target. 62 00:04:07,840 --> 00:04:11,360 Speaker 1: For his point is driven home during our tour as 63 00:04:11,400 --> 00:04:13,800 Speaker 1: a South Korean businessman walks by in a hard hat 64 00:04:14,200 --> 00:04:16,280 Speaker 1: browsing products he'd like to sell to the U. S 65 00:04:17,279 --> 00:04:20,440 Speaker 1: Ang pauses his tutorial about how NA has boosted productivity 66 00:04:20,480 --> 00:04:23,279 Speaker 1: by shaving seconds off the process of bending the initial medal. 67 00:04:23,839 --> 00:04:27,160 Speaker 1: He points out the latest visitor strolling the floors excitedly 68 00:04:27,200 --> 00:04:36,400 Speaker 1: interjecting in English, a prongfolio, and I thought to me 69 00:04:39,200 --> 00:04:42,200 Speaker 1: right now, Ang seems most focused on a new Canadian client, 70 00:04:42,600 --> 00:04:46,880 Speaker 1: manufacturer distributor Conglam, whose executives are scrapping their Chinese sourcing 71 00:04:46,920 --> 00:04:49,919 Speaker 1: and looking instead to order from NA, including cabinets they 72 00:04:50,000 --> 00:04:53,159 Speaker 1: ship to US customers. Ang says this is exactly the 73 00:04:53,200 --> 00:04:55,280 Speaker 1: type of order that his business has been working toward, 74 00:04:55,320 --> 00:04:57,640 Speaker 1: as they buy new machinery and become more efficient on 75 00:04:57,680 --> 00:05:02,080 Speaker 1: the factory floor. The most difficult things now is increasing 76 00:05:02,200 --> 00:05:06,080 Speaker 1: quality and ensuring good quality of our products while trying 77 00:05:06,120 --> 00:05:09,320 Speaker 1: to reduce costs to meet clients requirements and to be 78 00:05:09,400 --> 00:05:14,640 Speaker 1: more competitive. The gains in productivity have allowed aim to 79 00:05:14,720 --> 00:05:17,679 Speaker 1: raise salaries about eight percent each year for the past 80 00:05:17,720 --> 00:05:20,839 Speaker 1: three years, he says, more than double the rate of inflation. 81 00:05:21,640 --> 00:05:25,039 Speaker 1: One of his workers, forty six year old Havantan, has 82 00:05:25,040 --> 00:05:27,360 Speaker 1: been at China for twenty two years, and both that 83 00:05:27,480 --> 00:05:29,720 Speaker 1: the recent bumping business allowed him to buy a new 84 00:05:29,760 --> 00:05:39,200 Speaker 1: motorbike for his family last year. My wife is much 85 00:05:39,240 --> 00:05:42,560 Speaker 1: happier since I got higher income from the company, so 86 00:05:42,600 --> 00:05:45,320 Speaker 1: we have a better life now. I also have better 87 00:05:45,360 --> 00:05:48,560 Speaker 1: health as the working environment here has become better than 88 00:05:48,600 --> 00:05:56,840 Speaker 1: it was previously. Ain showed off the cabinets and test 89 00:05:56,880 --> 00:05:59,240 Speaker 1: phase that China was perfecting to close the deal with 90 00:05:59,320 --> 00:06:02,720 Speaker 1: Conglong later, he offers up a more concrete example of 91 00:06:02,720 --> 00:06:05,080 Speaker 1: where his company has already gained from the trade war. 92 00:06:05,839 --> 00:06:08,880 Speaker 1: Akia has done business with Shenois for more than seventeen years. 93 00:06:09,560 --> 00:06:12,400 Speaker 1: Last year, the Swedish furniture giant gave Shenwis some more 94 00:06:12,480 --> 00:06:15,000 Speaker 1: business by switching from a Chinese vendor that could hike 95 00:06:15,040 --> 00:06:18,719 Speaker 1: prices due to tariffs. Achia began buying these twenty cent 96 00:06:18,839 --> 00:06:22,240 Speaker 1: metal parts from Shenois, which Ain pulled off a newer machine. 97 00:06:22,279 --> 00:06:32,799 Speaker 1: On our tour, I met Sebastian Eckert, the World Bank's 98 00:06:32,839 --> 00:06:35,760 Speaker 1: lead Vietnam economist, in an eighth floor meeting room that 99 00:06:35,800 --> 00:06:40,000 Speaker 1: overlooks an especially buzzy intersection with tourists and teens snapping 100 00:06:40,040 --> 00:06:42,920 Speaker 1: photos in front of Hannoi's historic opera house across the way. 101 00:06:43,760 --> 00:06:49,520 Speaker 1: Eckert put things into perspective. Vietnam, of course, um, you know, 102 00:06:49,680 --> 00:06:57,160 Speaker 1: even before the recent tensions, in many ways, has picked 103 00:06:57,240 --> 00:07:05,359 Speaker 1: up activities where China basically move. We've moved on ind right, 104 00:07:05,440 --> 00:07:08,960 Speaker 1: So a lot of the the FDI that VS actually 105 00:07:09,080 --> 00:07:14,040 Speaker 1: is is relocation from China, and I think this the 106 00:07:14,120 --> 00:07:19,200 Speaker 1: recent chansions they probably accelerate that for some instant, that's 107 00:07:19,200 --> 00:07:22,880 Speaker 1: a keyword. I've been hearing a lot accelerate. The penalties 108 00:07:22,920 --> 00:07:25,720 Speaker 1: targeted at China and the broader demand slow down there 109 00:07:26,040 --> 00:07:29,480 Speaker 1: have given an extra nudge in Vietnam's favor. Not only 110 00:07:29,560 --> 00:07:32,520 Speaker 1: that the government is loosing its grip on commerce. At 111 00:07:32,520 --> 00:07:36,200 Speaker 1: the start of Sunwa, then a state owned company was 112 00:07:36,240 --> 00:07:40,960 Speaker 1: fully privatized, and now an owns a stake in the firm. 113 00:07:41,000 --> 00:07:45,320 Speaker 1: Eckert sees Vietnamese agencies cleaning up regulations brainstorming on tough 114 00:07:45,360 --> 00:07:48,640 Speaker 1: reforms like intellectual property rights and adding more free trade 115 00:07:48,680 --> 00:07:51,800 Speaker 1: agreements to their impressive lineup. It's all earned them better 116 00:07:51,840 --> 00:07:54,440 Speaker 1: spots and international rankings like the World Banks Ease of 117 00:07:54,480 --> 00:07:58,120 Speaker 1: Doing Business Index and the World Economic Forums Competitiveness Index. 118 00:07:59,200 --> 00:08:02,040 Speaker 1: That's really come back. And I think that's very healthy, 119 00:08:02,080 --> 00:08:04,560 Speaker 1: and it's something that is structural, that reflects a rising 120 00:08:05,080 --> 00:08:11,760 Speaker 1: middle class, increasingly urbanized country, healthy wage girls, more disposable income, 121 00:08:12,680 --> 00:08:15,240 Speaker 1: not only in a small fraction of households, but very 122 00:08:15,280 --> 00:08:18,240 Speaker 1: broad based, very inclusive girls, of course, and and I 123 00:08:18,280 --> 00:08:21,280 Speaker 1: think that's fueling a healthy domestic economy. And I think 124 00:08:21,320 --> 00:08:24,120 Speaker 1: that's that's important. Ing himself as an example of the 125 00:08:24,200 --> 00:08:27,960 Speaker 1: Vietnamese affection for America, in a country where lingering hustle 126 00:08:28,000 --> 00:08:31,600 Speaker 1: sentiment from the war is largely confined to museums, a 127 00:08:31,840 --> 00:08:34,560 Speaker 1: son is studying marketing in Indiana, part of a growing 128 00:08:34,600 --> 00:08:37,160 Speaker 1: pattern as Vietnam ranks number seven in the world and 129 00:08:37,240 --> 00:08:40,959 Speaker 1: sending students to the States. The Vietnamese hold a much 130 00:08:40,960 --> 00:08:44,000 Speaker 1: different perspective on China. They talk about a lack of 131 00:08:44,000 --> 00:08:46,440 Speaker 1: trust etched in a thousand years of history with their 132 00:08:46,480 --> 00:08:49,840 Speaker 1: communist neighbor, and almost nine and ten have an unfavorable 133 00:08:49,920 --> 00:08:53,640 Speaker 1: view of China, according to the same Pew survey. But 134 00:08:53,720 --> 00:08:56,439 Speaker 1: for all the positive signs, businesses aren't getting too excited 135 00:08:56,440 --> 00:08:59,000 Speaker 1: about the opportunities that might flow from the trade war. 136 00:08:59,720 --> 00:09:02,040 Speaker 1: For one thing, companies know they can't cut out the 137 00:09:02,040 --> 00:09:05,120 Speaker 1: second biggest market in the world. In fact, Ang says 138 00:09:05,160 --> 00:09:08,480 Speaker 1: Shea still needs to source some materials, including steel, from 139 00:09:08,559 --> 00:09:12,239 Speaker 1: China in order to continue producing according to customer preferences. 140 00:09:13,120 --> 00:09:17,560 Speaker 1: Corruption also remains an issue. Infrastructure still lags in some ways, 141 00:09:17,600 --> 00:09:22,080 Speaker 1: and paperwork can bog down newcomers. Moreover, Vietnam is vulnerable 142 00:09:22,080 --> 00:09:25,840 Speaker 1: to international criticism for imprisoning dissidents and bloggers who challenge 143 00:09:25,840 --> 00:09:29,480 Speaker 1: the government's one party socialist rule. And of course, if 144 00:09:29,520 --> 00:09:32,760 Speaker 1: the US China trade war worsens or goes global, that's 145 00:09:32,800 --> 00:09:35,880 Speaker 1: going to be bad for everyone, especially trade heavy economies 146 00:09:35,880 --> 00:09:39,760 Speaker 1: like Vietnam. But A thinks Shena in his country will 147 00:09:39,880 --> 00:09:46,760 Speaker 1: rise to the challenge. We see many opportunities in both 148 00:09:46,840 --> 00:09:50,960 Speaker 1: domestic and international market. The trade war is bringing more business, 149 00:09:51,040 --> 00:09:53,920 Speaker 1: for sure, while there are some potential areas in the 150 00:09:54,000 --> 00:09:58,360 Speaker 1: domestic market that we haven't tapped yet. In talks about 151 00:09:58,400 --> 00:10:01,400 Speaker 1: creating a so called smart fact Jory with more robots 152 00:10:01,400 --> 00:10:04,600 Speaker 1: and advanced machines. He aims to double sales in the 153 00:10:04,640 --> 00:10:07,880 Speaker 1: next five years. For now, the trade war is helping 154 00:10:07,920 --> 00:10:11,679 Speaker 1: and keep things plans on truck for Bloomberg News. This 155 00:10:11,760 --> 00:10:18,440 Speaker 1: is Michelle jam Risco. So that was Michelle jam Risco. 156 00:10:18,520 --> 00:10:22,000 Speaker 1: I'm very pleased to talk now to Daniel Moss, who 157 00:10:22,000 --> 00:10:25,319 Speaker 1: will be familiar to some of you long time listeners 158 00:10:25,360 --> 00:10:29,400 Speaker 1: to the Benchmark podcast. He used to run the economics 159 00:10:29,480 --> 00:10:31,360 Speaker 1: coverage here at Bloomberg. He has done a lot of 160 00:10:31,400 --> 00:10:34,559 Speaker 1: other things for Bloomberg, but most importantly for our purposes. 161 00:10:35,360 --> 00:10:38,240 Speaker 1: For the last few months, he's been based in Asia 162 00:10:38,280 --> 00:10:41,880 Speaker 1: as the Asian Economy columnist for Bloomberg Opinion. Dan, thanks 163 00:10:41,960 --> 00:10:45,480 Speaker 1: very much for coming back on the podcast. Step great 164 00:10:45,520 --> 00:10:48,480 Speaker 1: to be here. So we were just hearing about this 165 00:10:48,760 --> 00:10:53,520 Speaker 1: quite positive story about Vietnam potentially at least in the 166 00:10:53,559 --> 00:10:58,360 Speaker 1: short term, being a winner from the trade wars. Is 167 00:10:58,400 --> 00:11:02,400 Speaker 1: this something that you see generally when you think about 168 00:11:02,440 --> 00:11:06,640 Speaker 1: the impact on Southeast Asia of the immediate sort of 169 00:11:06,760 --> 00:11:11,079 Speaker 1: US China wrangling over trade, that there are some countries 170 00:11:11,120 --> 00:11:13,920 Speaker 1: that are actually benefiting as well as the losses we see, 171 00:11:14,000 --> 00:11:16,280 Speaker 1: or is it primarily a negative story. When you think 172 00:11:16,280 --> 00:11:18,280 Speaker 1: about the impact of the trade wars on the region, 173 00:11:20,000 --> 00:11:25,240 Speaker 1: it is overall a broadly negative story, with a couple 174 00:11:25,240 --> 00:11:29,640 Speaker 1: of exceptions, and Vietnam is one of them, certainly in 175 00:11:29,679 --> 00:11:33,240 Speaker 1: the short term. I was in Vietnam late last year 176 00:11:33,400 --> 00:11:36,880 Speaker 1: and the place was getting quite a lot of positive 177 00:11:37,000 --> 00:11:42,000 Speaker 1: buzz from foreign businesses who had set up there. Late 178 00:11:42,080 --> 00:11:46,000 Speaker 1: last year, the government lifted restrictions on how much foreigners 179 00:11:46,080 --> 00:11:51,160 Speaker 1: can own of huge swaths of industry. However, and this 180 00:11:51,240 --> 00:11:54,880 Speaker 1: is the key caveat when you're talking about Vietnam, it 181 00:11:54,960 --> 00:11:59,880 Speaker 1: remains a one party communist state, and so called sent 182 00:12:00,040 --> 00:12:05,520 Speaker 1: citive areas they are still off limits to foreign control. 183 00:12:07,520 --> 00:12:11,520 Speaker 1: Vietnam is a big country, but it's not so big. 184 00:12:11,679 --> 00:12:16,000 Speaker 1: It has relatively warm relations with the US and with 185 00:12:16,040 --> 00:12:19,839 Speaker 1: Western Europe that, of course, can all go wrong, though 186 00:12:20,440 --> 00:12:24,360 Speaker 1: its system of government is not dramatically different from China's 187 00:12:24,920 --> 00:12:29,280 Speaker 1: and steph. As you know from your own working experiences. 188 00:12:29,640 --> 00:12:34,960 Speaker 1: When emerging markets let foreign investors have more and more 189 00:12:35,040 --> 00:12:38,319 Speaker 1: of a say in the economic life of their country, 190 00:12:38,520 --> 00:12:43,080 Speaker 1: governments also surrender a certain amount of control. Some systems 191 00:12:43,120 --> 00:12:46,160 Speaker 1: of government and individual states are more comfortable with that 192 00:12:46,200 --> 00:12:50,000 Speaker 1: than others. For now, it's probably a bargain that works 193 00:12:50,080 --> 00:12:53,880 Speaker 1: for Vietnam. How long it works remains to be seen. 194 00:12:55,120 --> 00:12:57,960 Speaker 1: I suspect there's a little bit of crush to this. 195 00:12:59,160 --> 00:13:02,920 Speaker 1: Whether it's a long term player remains to be seeing. 196 00:13:03,360 --> 00:13:05,640 Speaker 1: I mean, it's one thing that certainly we think about 197 00:13:05,640 --> 00:13:07,720 Speaker 1: when we look at what you might call the Asian 198 00:13:07,960 --> 00:13:14,119 Speaker 1: economic model, which was so focused on trade and exporting 199 00:13:14,120 --> 00:13:16,320 Speaker 1: to the rest of the world, we know that that 200 00:13:16,720 --> 00:13:19,480 Speaker 1: sort of the path that China took and that other 201 00:13:19,520 --> 00:13:22,520 Speaker 1: countries before it took, is going to be much harder 202 00:13:22,559 --> 00:13:24,559 Speaker 1: now looking ahead. I mean, the rest of the world's 203 00:13:24,600 --> 00:13:27,600 Speaker 1: a bit more wise to that approach, but it's just 204 00:13:27,640 --> 00:13:30,760 Speaker 1: a much more competitive environment. I mean, not just Vietnam, 205 00:13:30,840 --> 00:13:32,839 Speaker 1: but if you're sort of stepping back and thinking about 206 00:13:33,360 --> 00:13:36,680 Speaker 1: Southeast Asia as a whole and that Asian export economies, 207 00:13:36,720 --> 00:13:39,719 Speaker 1: you know, how well do you think countries are grappling 208 00:13:39,800 --> 00:13:43,280 Speaker 1: with moving away from it or needing to find a 209 00:13:43,320 --> 00:13:46,600 Speaker 1: different kind of economic model. They do need to find 210 00:13:46,720 --> 00:13:49,520 Speaker 1: a different type of economic models. Some of them are 211 00:13:49,600 --> 00:13:53,680 Speaker 1: pinning hopes on their own middle class. But just to 212 00:13:53,760 --> 00:13:57,440 Speaker 1: be clear about this, a move away from exports is 213 00:13:57,559 --> 00:14:00,959 Speaker 1: essentially a move away from the model that got them 214 00:14:00,960 --> 00:14:03,600 Speaker 1: where they are. You know, we're all familiar with the 215 00:14:03,679 --> 00:14:06,280 Speaker 1: success stories of some of these Asian economies. You know, 216 00:14:06,400 --> 00:14:09,800 Speaker 1: tigers was a term very much on vogue in the 217 00:14:09,840 --> 00:14:12,400 Speaker 1: eighties and nineties. Who don't hear that so much anymore. 218 00:14:12,800 --> 00:14:16,880 Speaker 1: They did really, really well out of exports, and part 219 00:14:16,880 --> 00:14:20,440 Speaker 1: of that was an exports supply chain that sneaked through 220 00:14:20,600 --> 00:14:25,280 Speaker 1: China and has recently served China as well as serving 221 00:14:25,520 --> 00:14:29,600 Speaker 1: the US. Now, to attract all the multinationals that were 222 00:14:29,680 --> 00:14:33,480 Speaker 1: part of those supply chains, they needed to make their 223 00:14:33,480 --> 00:14:37,640 Speaker 1: economies more open. They needed to invest more money in education, 224 00:14:37,720 --> 00:14:41,200 Speaker 1: They needed to keep up the momentum move up the 225 00:14:41,280 --> 00:14:44,920 Speaker 1: value chain. Now, if you take away exports and if 226 00:14:44,960 --> 00:14:49,040 Speaker 1: you at least subtract from China's role in that global 227 00:14:49,120 --> 00:14:52,440 Speaker 1: supply chain, the model that got many of these East 228 00:14:52,480 --> 00:14:56,520 Speaker 1: Asian countries where they are, well, you know, got another model. 229 00:14:57,600 --> 00:15:00,280 Speaker 1: I don't know that they necessarily have a convinced seeing 230 00:15:00,280 --> 00:15:01,880 Speaker 1: new one, and I guess one of them, I mean, 231 00:15:01,920 --> 00:15:04,360 Speaker 1: one part of one big part of the model. The 232 00:15:04,440 --> 00:15:08,760 Speaker 1: last few years has just been dependents on China, I mean, selling, 233 00:15:08,880 --> 00:15:12,320 Speaker 1: selling into that China growth story. We think a lot 234 00:15:12,360 --> 00:15:15,440 Speaker 1: about the impact of trade wars and as understandable because 235 00:15:15,440 --> 00:15:18,520 Speaker 1: it's such a it's a change to have this kind 236 00:15:18,520 --> 00:15:22,680 Speaker 1: of protectionist mood affecting relations between the two of the 237 00:15:22,680 --> 00:15:25,240 Speaker 1: biggest economies in the world. But if you're sitting in 238 00:15:25,280 --> 00:15:28,560 Speaker 1: major you're looking at Asian economies all around you, what 239 00:15:28,680 --> 00:15:31,240 Speaker 1: are you worried about most? Are you worried most about 240 00:15:31,280 --> 00:15:33,360 Speaker 1: the trade war? Or are you worried most about the 241 00:15:33,400 --> 00:15:35,920 Speaker 1: slowing of growth in China because that's such a big 242 00:15:35,920 --> 00:15:38,800 Speaker 1: part of this year's story as well. Yeah, when I 243 00:15:38,880 --> 00:15:42,520 Speaker 1: wake up tomorrow morning, I'll be worrying about the trade 244 00:15:42,560 --> 00:15:45,600 Speaker 1: war and the impact of that. But you know, as 245 00:15:45,640 --> 00:15:49,080 Speaker 1: I wake up in the months and perhaps the year 246 00:15:49,160 --> 00:15:53,440 Speaker 1: to come, I'll be worried that economies aren't thinking enough 247 00:15:53,560 --> 00:15:58,800 Speaker 1: about the structural slowed down and the structural change in 248 00:15:58,880 --> 00:16:03,880 Speaker 1: the Chinese economy. This is an economy that Donald Trump, notwithstanding, 249 00:16:04,360 --> 00:16:08,360 Speaker 1: is becoming more and more driven by its own domestic 250 00:16:08,560 --> 00:16:14,880 Speaker 1: consumer market, by technology. China is not going to grow 251 00:16:15,040 --> 00:16:18,360 Speaker 1: at six percent forever. It didn't grow at ten percent forever. 252 00:16:18,840 --> 00:16:21,560 Speaker 1: You know, we need to get used to growth of 253 00:16:21,920 --> 00:16:26,520 Speaker 1: five points something, four points something, three points something. You know, 254 00:16:26,600 --> 00:16:29,960 Speaker 1: the O E c D has done some modeling. Capital Economics, 255 00:16:29,960 --> 00:16:33,920 Speaker 1: among other firms, have done some modeling. As China's economy 256 00:16:34,000 --> 00:16:39,120 Speaker 1: continues to mature, you know it's going to look actually 257 00:16:39,120 --> 00:16:41,720 Speaker 1: a lot like the US and to a degree Western 258 00:16:41,760 --> 00:16:45,400 Speaker 1: Europe in terms of its rates of growth. Now, for 259 00:16:45,480 --> 00:16:48,000 Speaker 1: all the people's staff that we've heard say, well, the 260 00:16:48,040 --> 00:16:52,760 Speaker 1: biggest thing in my lifetime has been the super fabulous 261 00:16:53,040 --> 00:16:57,040 Speaker 1: rise of China. That's great, that's true. But how much 262 00:16:57,080 --> 00:17:02,480 Speaker 1: consideration is given to a China, know which looks normal? 263 00:17:03,600 --> 00:17:08,040 Speaker 1: That is the really long term fundamental challenge. Being close 264 00:17:08,119 --> 00:17:13,360 Speaker 1: to China was once an an unalloyed good. How much 265 00:17:13,400 --> 00:17:17,000 Speaker 1: longer will that be true? Again? Got a new model. 266 00:17:18,240 --> 00:17:20,000 Speaker 1: It makes me think. And it's interesting because you and 267 00:17:20,040 --> 00:17:22,280 Speaker 1: I both have a sort of longer term perspect on this, 268 00:17:22,320 --> 00:17:25,160 Speaker 1: although you had a much deeper understanding of the region. 269 00:17:25,200 --> 00:17:26,920 Speaker 1: I mean, I think, you know, you've just moved back 270 00:17:27,240 --> 00:17:31,520 Speaker 1: to Asia after many years away, and I think the 271 00:17:31,600 --> 00:17:33,600 Speaker 1: last time you were there. You should remind us the 272 00:17:33,640 --> 00:17:36,200 Speaker 1: last time you were there was in the late nineties. 273 00:17:36,480 --> 00:17:39,639 Speaker 1: That was when I was making flying visits to Asia 274 00:17:39,720 --> 00:17:42,239 Speaker 1: during the Asia Financial crisis, when I was working at 275 00:17:42,280 --> 00:17:44,520 Speaker 1: the U. S. Treasury, working for Larry Summers. So, of 276 00:17:44,520 --> 00:17:47,800 Speaker 1: course I got a rather crazed picture of these countries 277 00:17:47,840 --> 00:17:51,760 Speaker 1: when they were going through this absolute worst moment of crisis. 278 00:17:51,840 --> 00:17:53,320 Speaker 1: You were sitting there able to look at it a 279 00:17:53,400 --> 00:17:55,800 Speaker 1: bit more calmly. But what struck you most you've been 280 00:17:55,840 --> 00:17:58,280 Speaker 1: back for a few months now, how is that long 281 00:17:58,400 --> 00:18:01,639 Speaker 1: term story of China influen punts and the development of 282 00:18:01,640 --> 00:18:04,560 Speaker 1: the region played out relative to what you might have 283 00:18:04,640 --> 00:18:08,960 Speaker 1: thought when you left? So I moved to Singapore three 284 00:18:09,040 --> 00:18:11,840 Speaker 1: months ago. The last time I lived in Southeast Asia, 285 00:18:11,920 --> 00:18:17,359 Speaker 1: I was the bureau chief of Bloomberg in Malaysia from 286 00:18:17,520 --> 00:18:20,840 Speaker 1: so definitely that was a period of economic and political 287 00:18:20,960 --> 00:18:25,800 Speaker 1: upheaval in the region. Having been away for two decades, 288 00:18:26,040 --> 00:18:30,760 Speaker 1: I expected Steph that when I returned, China's footprint would 289 00:18:30,800 --> 00:18:35,719 Speaker 1: be everywhere. You know, writ large, writ small, rip medium, 290 00:18:35,800 --> 00:18:39,119 Speaker 1: you name it. The thing that surprised me most as 291 00:18:39,200 --> 00:18:42,280 Speaker 1: I talk to people at central banks here and read 292 00:18:42,400 --> 00:18:48,280 Speaker 1: more and more about monetary policy in Asia, the more 293 00:18:48,280 --> 00:18:50,800 Speaker 1: it's apparent to me this is still largely about the 294 00:18:50,840 --> 00:18:56,160 Speaker 1: Federal Reserve. This is still a dollar zone. Is China's 295 00:18:56,200 --> 00:19:00,280 Speaker 1: footprint in the region expanding in other economic ways? For 296 00:19:00,520 --> 00:19:03,840 Speaker 1: Shure is China funding a lot of infrastructure in this 297 00:19:03,960 --> 00:19:08,280 Speaker 1: region for Shure, is the Belton Road Initiative having an 298 00:19:08,320 --> 00:19:13,200 Speaker 1: impact for Shure. But when it comes to the monetary realm, 299 00:19:13,240 --> 00:19:17,480 Speaker 1: this is still a dollar game. And whenever there's a 300 00:19:17,560 --> 00:19:21,800 Speaker 1: Federal Open Market Committee meeting for two days, there's just 301 00:19:21,840 --> 00:19:24,280 Speaker 1: this constant blitz. It's like I was back in d 302 00:19:24,400 --> 00:19:27,480 Speaker 1: C at a fed lock up. People's Bank of China 303 00:19:28,280 --> 00:19:33,080 Speaker 1: is barely mentioned. For me. That was a surprise. Now 304 00:19:33,160 --> 00:19:38,119 Speaker 1: culturally and politically things have advanced significantly. I'm talking to 305 00:19:38,160 --> 00:19:41,160 Speaker 1: you right now from Jakarta, the capital of Indonesia, which, 306 00:19:41,160 --> 00:19:45,159 Speaker 1: as you know, was the epicenter in Southeast Asia of 307 00:19:45,240 --> 00:19:49,520 Speaker 1: the financial crisis two decades ago. It ultimately became a 308 00:19:49,520 --> 00:19:54,560 Speaker 1: political crisis and in some ways a sectarian crisis. Indonesia 309 00:19:54,680 --> 00:19:57,680 Speaker 1: is in full bloom as a democracy as it prepares 310 00:19:57,720 --> 00:20:01,479 Speaker 1: to vote this month. Country only been voting directly for 311 00:20:01,520 --> 00:20:04,960 Speaker 1: presidents since two thousand and four. And democracy is a 312 00:20:05,000 --> 00:20:08,000 Speaker 1: great thing. We all support that, but it does make 313 00:20:08,040 --> 00:20:10,960 Speaker 1: it harder sometimes to get a handle on the debate, 314 00:20:11,359 --> 00:20:16,560 Speaker 1: and it can also uncork some sentiments that authoritarian rules 315 00:20:16,840 --> 00:20:19,840 Speaker 1: had papered over. No I think that's I mean It's 316 00:20:19,840 --> 00:20:23,560 Speaker 1: fascinating and not necessarily what we hear all the time 317 00:20:23,640 --> 00:20:26,520 Speaker 1: when we think about the rise of China and and 318 00:20:26,520 --> 00:20:29,719 Speaker 1: how how dominant it's become. Some things have moved very quickly, 319 00:20:30,119 --> 00:20:32,639 Speaker 1: but some of these long term aspects, certainly about the 320 00:20:32,720 --> 00:20:35,119 Speaker 1: role of the dollar, we know it could take a 321 00:20:35,200 --> 00:20:38,000 Speaker 1: lot longer. I seem to remember. I think the the 322 00:20:38,160 --> 00:20:40,840 Speaker 1: UK was surpassed by the US in terms of the 323 00:20:40,880 --> 00:20:44,520 Speaker 1: size of its economy in the late in the eighties nineties. 324 00:20:44,560 --> 00:20:47,920 Speaker 1: It took another sixty years before the pound was really 325 00:20:47,960 --> 00:20:51,040 Speaker 1: displaced by the dollar as the global currency. So maybe 326 00:20:51,080 --> 00:20:54,520 Speaker 1: we shouldn't be surprised, but it's it's interesting to hear 327 00:20:54,520 --> 00:20:57,760 Speaker 1: that you've come all that way, Dan, moving from the US, 328 00:20:57,840 --> 00:21:00,000 Speaker 1: only to discover that it really is still all about 329 00:21:00,000 --> 00:21:02,080 Speaker 1: at the FED. I appreciate that we got that insight. 330 00:21:02,720 --> 00:21:04,280 Speaker 1: Thanks very much for joining us. I know we're going 331 00:21:04,320 --> 00:21:07,440 Speaker 1: to have you back on the show very soon. Thanks Steph. 332 00:21:07,600 --> 00:21:16,680 Speaker 1: Looking forward to it. So I'm joined now by someone 333 00:21:16,720 --> 00:21:19,600 Speaker 1: who's also about to move from the US, Brendan Murray, 334 00:21:19,880 --> 00:21:23,200 Speaker 1: who until recently was managing editor for the US economic 335 00:21:23,280 --> 00:21:26,320 Speaker 1: coverage here at Bloomberg, but is now Our world trades 336 00:21:26,359 --> 00:21:29,360 Speaker 1: are we've decided trade it become so important to Bloomberg 337 00:21:29,400 --> 00:21:31,240 Speaker 1: we didn't just have to report it, but we needed 338 00:21:31,240 --> 00:21:35,680 Speaker 1: to install an autocrat to keep the show on the road. So, Brendan, welcome. 339 00:21:36,000 --> 00:21:38,639 Speaker 1: I wanted to chat to you partly to tell everyone 340 00:21:38,680 --> 00:21:41,159 Speaker 1: that we have a global trades are now, but also 341 00:21:41,400 --> 00:21:43,920 Speaker 1: because a news story out of Geneva caught my eye, 342 00:21:43,960 --> 00:21:46,840 Speaker 1: which I don't say very often. It's the news that 343 00:21:46,880 --> 00:21:50,840 Speaker 1: the World Trade Organization, based in Geneva has just published 344 00:21:50,840 --> 00:21:55,560 Speaker 1: its first ruling on national security. Now, Brendan, this was 345 00:21:55,640 --> 00:21:58,959 Speaker 1: about a trade dispute between Russia and Ukraine, which might 346 00:21:59,000 --> 00:22:01,399 Speaker 1: be quite important for those two countries, but it's not 347 00:22:01,480 --> 00:22:03,440 Speaker 1: necessarily going to be something the world has to pay 348 00:22:03,480 --> 00:22:05,879 Speaker 1: attention to. Why did we make a bit of a 349 00:22:05,880 --> 00:22:08,760 Speaker 1: fuss out of it here in Bloomberg. Well, this ruling 350 00:22:08,840 --> 00:22:12,800 Speaker 1: is going to have bigger implications for the Trump administration's 351 00:22:12,880 --> 00:22:17,800 Speaker 1: trade agenda around the world. Essentially, Trump is saying that 352 00:22:18,480 --> 00:22:22,400 Speaker 1: the steel and aluminum tariffs that it is applying on 353 00:22:22,720 --> 00:22:25,639 Speaker 1: a number of countries around the world are justified for 354 00:22:25,720 --> 00:22:28,760 Speaker 1: national security reasons, so that this ruling out of the 355 00:22:28,920 --> 00:22:32,800 Speaker 1: w t O will invite some disputes from from around 356 00:22:32,800 --> 00:22:36,760 Speaker 1: the world, from countries like Canada, China, and EU. So 357 00:22:36,840 --> 00:22:39,679 Speaker 1: he's always said so. The administration has always said w 358 00:22:39,760 --> 00:22:42,640 Speaker 1: T shouldn't be getting itself involved in this, and in fact, 359 00:22:42,680 --> 00:22:44,280 Speaker 1: even the w D has sort of said in the 360 00:22:44,280 --> 00:22:46,600 Speaker 1: past they didn't particularly want to get involved in national 361 00:22:46,680 --> 00:22:49,400 Speaker 1: security things. But if you look at the ruling itself, 362 00:22:49,600 --> 00:22:52,200 Speaker 1: the w two seems to have said, yeah, Russia's claim 363 00:22:52,280 --> 00:22:55,440 Speaker 1: of national security concerns was right in this case. I 364 00:22:55,480 --> 00:22:59,760 Speaker 1: think they were. They were They've been putting restrictions on 365 00:23:00,160 --> 00:23:04,080 Speaker 1: the goods going from Ukraine to other countries but through Russia, 366 00:23:04,600 --> 00:23:08,159 Speaker 1: and because of the sort of conditions relations between Russia 367 00:23:08,160 --> 00:23:11,560 Speaker 1: and Ukraine. Russia had said there's national security concerns, why 368 00:23:11,560 --> 00:23:13,359 Speaker 1: I was doing this, And the w t O has 369 00:23:13,400 --> 00:23:16,159 Speaker 1: agreed with that. So so why should the administration really 370 00:23:16,280 --> 00:23:18,000 Speaker 1: worry about it? If it's going to be on on 371 00:23:18,040 --> 00:23:20,800 Speaker 1: the Donald Trump's side, well, they should worry about it 372 00:23:20,840 --> 00:23:24,200 Speaker 1: because they're probably on shakier ground calling the steel and 373 00:23:24,240 --> 00:23:28,080 Speaker 1: aluminum tariffs justified for national security reasons. In the Russia 374 00:23:28,119 --> 00:23:30,960 Speaker 1: and Ukraine case, there was an armed conflict going on 375 00:23:31,800 --> 00:23:36,800 Speaker 1: when Russia installed these these restricted trade measures. The US 376 00:23:36,880 --> 00:23:40,280 Speaker 1: UH doesn't have the same argument that there's an actual 377 00:23:40,280 --> 00:23:43,200 Speaker 1: military conflict going on, that we need these tariffs for 378 00:23:43,320 --> 00:23:47,520 Speaker 1: national security reasons. So the definition of of of trying 379 00:23:47,560 --> 00:23:49,879 Speaker 1: to prove that these are needed for national security that 380 00:23:49,960 --> 00:23:53,280 Speaker 1: the administration is probably hoping if there's a looser a 381 00:23:53,320 --> 00:23:56,960 Speaker 1: looser definition of basically this could open up the floodgates 382 00:23:57,000 --> 00:23:59,679 Speaker 1: to for other countries to say, oh, well, we have 383 00:23:59,840 --> 00:24:02,840 Speaker 1: we have national security interests in in in maintaining our 384 00:24:02,880 --> 00:24:04,920 Speaker 1: steel industries. And so you can you can see the 385 00:24:05,000 --> 00:24:08,520 Speaker 1: sort of domino effect that that this could have. What 386 00:24:08,560 --> 00:24:10,640 Speaker 1: about what's the timing on that? Do we think if 387 00:24:11,000 --> 00:24:13,200 Speaker 1: I know that sometimes things take an awful long time 388 00:24:13,240 --> 00:24:15,520 Speaker 1: to go through the w t O, but are we 389 00:24:15,560 --> 00:24:18,720 Speaker 1: expecting a ruling on any of these things? Nothing? Nothing 390 00:24:18,720 --> 00:24:21,520 Speaker 1: in the near term. That's that That's one of the 391 00:24:21,560 --> 00:24:24,680 Speaker 1: potential outcomes of this particular case is that this could 392 00:24:24,680 --> 00:24:28,280 Speaker 1: be appealed and and it could be tied up for years. Um, 393 00:24:28,320 --> 00:24:31,440 Speaker 1: you know, that's probably what Donald Trump would be would 394 00:24:31,480 --> 00:24:34,800 Speaker 1: be hoping happens if it does actually come to the 395 00:24:35,000 --> 00:24:38,040 Speaker 1: ruling for national security against the US. Now, I feel 396 00:24:38,080 --> 00:24:40,360 Speaker 1: kind of sorry for the World Weld Trade Organization. They're 397 00:24:40,359 --> 00:24:41,960 Speaker 1: sort of damned if they do, and damned if they don't. 398 00:24:42,000 --> 00:24:45,040 Speaker 1: If they don't get involved in these kind of issues, 399 00:24:45,080 --> 00:24:47,040 Speaker 1: then you can imagine, as you say, more and more 400 00:24:47,080 --> 00:24:50,000 Speaker 1: countries going around them and saying everything is a national 401 00:24:50,000 --> 00:24:52,800 Speaker 1: security concern, and then the w t A becomes relevant. 402 00:24:52,960 --> 00:24:56,360 Speaker 1: But if it's relevant and then hated enough for President 403 00:24:56,400 --> 00:24:59,200 Speaker 1: Trump to take the US out, that's a pretty bad 404 00:24:59,240 --> 00:25:02,320 Speaker 1: outcome as well. Who knew that world trade negotiations could 405 00:25:02,359 --> 00:25:05,040 Speaker 1: be so exciting. You must be very excited to take 406 00:25:05,040 --> 00:25:08,160 Speaker 1: on your new role. Congratulations Brendan, and thank you. Thanks 407 00:25:17,000 --> 00:25:19,560 Speaker 1: thanks for listening to Stephanomics. Please join us next week 408 00:25:19,600 --> 00:25:22,800 Speaker 1: for another episode about the forces shaping the global economy. 409 00:25:22,960 --> 00:25:24,840 Speaker 1: In the meantime, you can find us on the Bloomberg 410 00:25:24,920 --> 00:25:28,119 Speaker 1: Terminal website or app or wherever you get your podcasts. 411 00:25:28,440 --> 00:25:30,120 Speaker 1: We'd love it if you took the time to rate 412 00:25:30,160 --> 00:25:33,080 Speaker 1: and review the show so it could reach more listeners. 413 00:25:33,080 --> 00:25:36,760 Speaker 1: For more news and analysis from Bloomberg Economics, follow as 414 00:25:36,800 --> 00:25:39,840 Speaker 1: Economics on Twitter. You can also follow me on at 415 00:25:39,920 --> 00:25:43,199 Speaker 1: my Stephanomics. The story in this episode was reported and 416 00:25:43,200 --> 00:25:46,480 Speaker 1: written by Michelle jam Risco, and Win You Win was 417 00:25:46,560 --> 00:25:50,119 Speaker 1: produced by Magnus Hendrickson. And edited by Nurserene Syria and 418 00:25:50,200 --> 00:25:54,040 Speaker 1: Scott Lamman, who is also the executive producer of Stephanomics 419 00:25:54,480 --> 00:25:58,320 Speaker 1: Special Thanks to Dan Moss, Brendan Murray and Hung Trom. 420 00:25:58,320 --> 00:26:01,360 Speaker 1: Francesca Levy is the head of bloom By podcast