WEBVTT - Who Takes The Fall For Tariff Disaster? + Trump’s Enemies List 0:00:04.080 --> 0:00:08.119 Hello there, Happy Friday. Here at the Chuck Podcast. This 0:00:08.160 --> 0:00:12.440 is a bit of a bonus episode. I don't always 0:00:12.920 --> 0:00:15.080 not always going to drop four in a week, but 0:00:16.520 --> 0:00:18.319 this has been one of those weeks, and I know, 0:00:18.400 --> 0:00:20.759 and the Trump era, there's always one of those weeks, 0:00:20.760 --> 0:00:24.360 and that's always a word of warning. Sometimes, right just 0:00:24.400 --> 0:00:27.360 when you think, oh my god, can it get any crazier, 0:00:27.800 --> 0:00:31.880 something else will happen and it will get crazier. But 0:00:32.440 --> 0:00:35.919 I do think trying to understand the most important thing 0:00:36.120 --> 0:00:41.600 on the Trump tariff pullback, right, we all know he blinked. 0:00:41.920 --> 0:00:44.640 I think it's important to figure out how he got there, 0:00:45.479 --> 0:00:48.080 because understanding how he got there will then tell us 0:00:48.240 --> 0:00:50.840 I give us at least a better idea of how 0:00:50.840 --> 0:00:53.120 to be prepared for what is still going to be 0:00:53.159 --> 0:00:57.880 an uncertain economic climate for at least the next three 0:00:57.920 --> 0:01:02.560 months possible if it's as if it's as tumultuous as 0:01:02.600 --> 0:01:06.480 it still looks we're looking at, you know, what's going 0:01:06.520 --> 0:01:10.160 to be just a tumultuous eighteen months until the voters 0:01:11.200 --> 0:01:13.319 decide if they want to have a say here on 0:01:13.520 --> 0:01:16.720 the direction of our economy. But the fact of the 0:01:16.760 --> 0:01:20.600 matter is, while while Trump sort of stopped what was 0:01:20.680 --> 0:01:26.319 turning into the beginnings of a republican revolt on this 0:01:26.440 --> 0:01:30.120 and certainly a major donor revolt on his policies. He 0:01:30.200 --> 0:01:33.920 has staved that off, but it's not as if he 0:01:33.959 --> 0:01:36.919 can go back and slap dash this on and hope 0:01:37.000 --> 0:01:40.240 that he's you know, that the same thing won't happen again. 0:01:40.920 --> 0:01:45.600 So my guest today is Mark Caputo, and I think 0:01:45.640 --> 0:01:48.480 Mark Caputo, of all the Trump beat writers, probably has 0:01:48.520 --> 0:01:53.120 the best insight on how this version of Trump World operates. 0:01:53.160 --> 0:01:56.200 And I say this version because I said it in 0:01:56.240 --> 0:01:58.760 the previous update, and I'll say it again. Which is 0:01:58.800 --> 0:02:03.320 the biggest miss The biggest mistake everybody has made with 0:02:03.400 --> 0:02:06.360 Trump two point zero is assuming Trump one point oh 0:02:06.520 --> 0:02:09.200 was a blueprint or a model. I think it is 0:02:09.280 --> 0:02:12.760 pretty clear now Trump one point oh was. The Mike 0:02:12.840 --> 0:02:17.400 Pence presidency was the right because it was Mike Penson 0:02:17.520 --> 0:02:20.200 Right's previous who built that cabinet, who built that staff, 0:02:20.240 --> 0:02:22.880 who built that team. I'd probably throw Jared Kushner in 0:02:22.919 --> 0:02:24.880 there as sort of the third guy in here. 0:02:24.960 --> 0:02:26.160 That Kushner. 0:02:27.880 --> 0:02:36.519 Previous and Pence were stabilizing forces for conventional economic thinking, 0:02:36.639 --> 0:02:41.920 conventional national security thinking, and conventional day to day governance 0:02:42.040 --> 0:02:46.520 of the larger entity that is the federal government. And 0:02:46.560 --> 0:02:49.200 it's pretty clear that by the time Trump got to 0:02:49.240 --> 0:02:52.160 the end of his first term, he knew exactly what happened. Right, 0:02:52.240 --> 0:02:54.760 He went through four National security advisors because he didn't 0:02:54.800 --> 0:02:56.760 like any of them. He went through four chiefs of 0:02:56.800 --> 0:03:00.280 staff until he got the most compliant one in Mark Meadows, right, 0:03:01.480 --> 0:03:05.240 and so he kept And so when he built Trump 0:03:05.320 --> 0:03:08.560 two point zero, he made sure he wasn't going to 0:03:08.600 --> 0:03:14.200 have somebody that wasn't essentially loyal to his vision, loyal 0:03:14.200 --> 0:03:16.919 to his ideas, and he certainly wasn't going to use 0:03:17.280 --> 0:03:19.799 his running make pick to quote unquote build a bridge 0:03:19.800 --> 0:03:20.640 to another wing. 0:03:20.480 --> 0:03:21.000 Of the party. 0:03:21.400 --> 0:03:23.600 Now, look, he had picked Mike Pence because there was 0:03:23.800 --> 0:03:27.440 he needed to try to heal. He needed to try 0:03:27.440 --> 0:03:28.760 to reach out to a wing of the party that 0:03:28.840 --> 0:03:32.640 was skeptical of him, the evangelical community, and he thought 0:03:32.639 --> 0:03:35.800 Pence would help him with that, as well as mainstream conservatives. 0:03:36.120 --> 0:03:38.440 And then he didn't know anything about how Washington worked, 0:03:38.640 --> 0:03:41.400 and so he delegated a lot of authority to Mike Pence. 0:03:41.440 --> 0:03:43.360 And Mike Pence, I think, you know. 0:03:43.360 --> 0:03:46.240 As the more people are learning about the job he 0:03:46.320 --> 0:03:48.360 did and the things he did that we didn't see 0:03:48.400 --> 0:03:52.320 every day. You know, there's a core competency to Mike Pence. 0:03:52.360 --> 0:03:55.480 You may have some ideological disagreements on certain ideas that 0:03:55.600 --> 0:03:58.440 he had out there, but he had a core competency 0:03:58.480 --> 0:04:02.760 to him and something that came through during COVID, something 0:04:02.760 --> 0:04:04.960 that when you talk to a lot of governor's Democrat 0:04:05.040 --> 0:04:08.000 or Republican that were on those COVID calls, you know, 0:04:08.400 --> 0:04:14.040 the the chaos was Trump's. The the the planning and 0:04:14.160 --> 0:04:18.359 getting you know, getting organized was pens. So the point 0:04:18.440 --> 0:04:22.359 is this is that we have to stop using anything. 0:04:23.040 --> 0:04:25.120 This is one of those things where if I could 0:04:25.160 --> 0:04:29.200 erase everybody's brains of Trump one point oh, don't let 0:04:29.240 --> 0:04:33.280 it make any impact on you on how you think 0:04:33.279 --> 0:04:36.400 Trump two point oh is going to go or is operating. 0:04:37.000 --> 0:04:40.359 It is more different than it is the same. This 0:04:40.560 --> 0:04:44.679 is a brand new style of governing. This is yes, 0:04:44.800 --> 0:04:47.760 he tested the electric fences in the first term and 0:04:47.839 --> 0:04:50.919 found out where vulnerabilities were and where they weren't. But 0:04:51.000 --> 0:04:53.520 it is not lost on me that there's essentially two 0:04:53.520 --> 0:04:58.039 holdovers from his first term. Steven Miller, who is clearly 0:04:58.080 --> 0:05:01.560 now thee the keeper of the grievance list as they 0:05:01.600 --> 0:05:04.000 come up with plans to go get people. This Chris 0:05:04.560 --> 0:05:09.080 the the chilling effect of launching these investigations against anybody 0:05:09.160 --> 0:05:13.400 that was essentially a whistleblower. In his first term, Chris Krebs, 0:05:13.400 --> 0:05:17.760 who was in the cybersecurity uh uh, in the cybersecurity 0:05:17.760 --> 0:05:20.240 space for the federal government, who was the first Trump 0:05:20.279 --> 0:05:24.560 appointed official to say this election was. 0:05:24.520 --> 0:05:25.200 On the up and up. 0:05:27.320 --> 0:05:29.159 We're going to discuss this, and I discussed this with 0:05:29.200 --> 0:05:31.160 Mark Puto in a minute, but I do think that 0:05:31.279 --> 0:05:34.480 you've got to see what this is for the chilling effect, 0:05:34.640 --> 0:05:38.680 that that the that this administration, and it's more orchestrated 0:05:38.680 --> 0:05:40.680 by Steven Miller than it is Trump. You know, one 0:05:40.680 --> 0:05:42.640 thing about Trump is that he has plenty of grievances, 0:05:42.640 --> 0:05:46.400 but he's usually a bit too lazy to execute revenge fantasy. 0:05:46.440 --> 0:05:48.960 You know, he has revenge fantasies, but actually to execute 0:05:48.960 --> 0:05:52.479 the revenges. But Steven Miller has the patients and the 0:05:52.880 --> 0:05:56.279 and the bandwidth to to do all these things and 0:05:56.440 --> 0:06:00.839 these lawsuits, these investigations, sending FBI agents to Chris Krebs's house, 0:06:00.880 --> 0:06:05.840 into miles Taylor's house. Yes, it's about rattling them, and 0:06:05.880 --> 0:06:09.080 it's a little bit about revenge, but it's also about 0:06:09.560 --> 0:06:12.159 sending a message to anybody in the current administration. If 0:06:12.200 --> 0:06:15.400 you're going to speak out, you will you know, you 0:06:15.480 --> 0:06:17.200 might make the list and be careful. 0:06:18.440 --> 0:06:20.000 It's why you know you sit here. 0:06:20.960 --> 0:06:22.880 I saw there's a few lawmakers that would like to 0:06:22.920 --> 0:06:25.640 see an investigation to see if there was any insider trading, 0:06:26.040 --> 0:06:29.520 if Donald Trump was trying to give investors a heads 0:06:29.560 --> 0:06:32.800 up or different people when he when he made his 0:06:33.720 --> 0:06:36.200 what seemed like a vague tweet about this is a 0:06:36.200 --> 0:06:38.479 good time to buy you know, did he already know? 0:06:38.880 --> 0:06:43.320 Was he already giving insider trading? Do you expect do 0:06:43.400 --> 0:06:46.160 we think that the current iteration of the SEC is 0:06:46.160 --> 0:06:49.120 going to investigate? I mean, I would argue that there's 0:06:49.160 --> 0:06:52.839 a lot of shenanigans that take place now. Part of 0:06:52.839 --> 0:06:55.360 the difficulty with trying to figure out is Donald Trump 0:06:55.440 --> 0:06:58.440 doing insider information or is he just simply being Donald 0:06:58.480 --> 0:07:02.719 Trump overly telegraphing every movie makes right. He is also 0:07:02.760 --> 0:07:06.560 somebody who happens to overly telegraph everything he does. And 0:07:06.640 --> 0:07:09.640 there's you know when you if you know? And I'm sure, 0:07:09.640 --> 0:07:14.080 there are people that simply speak trump Ism and just 0:07:14.280 --> 0:07:18.200 used his used his Twitter feed or his ex feed 0:07:18.280 --> 0:07:21.160 or his truth social feed, whatever whatever we're promoting these 0:07:21.240 --> 0:07:26.680 days as the guide post to this. So look, you know, 0:07:27.080 --> 0:07:29.640 I don't think you're going to get investigations and you're 0:07:29.680 --> 0:07:33.640 not going to get many whistleblowers because I think Donald 0:07:33.680 --> 0:07:38.960 Trump has come to the conclusion that whistleblowers and internal 0:07:39.000 --> 0:07:43.760 watchdogs were some of the biggest sources of his political 0:07:43.800 --> 0:07:46.120 problems in his first term, and he wants to eliminate as. 0:07:46.200 --> 0:07:47.640 As much of that friction as you can. 0:07:48.280 --> 0:07:52.280 But ultimately, the reason I'm dropping this special pod is 0:07:52.280 --> 0:07:54.200 because I think Marco Puto is going to be able 0:07:54.240 --> 0:07:58.440 to paint a picture for you and to understand who's 0:07:58.520 --> 0:08:00.720 you know, who's on the end, Who's who's got his 0:08:00.800 --> 0:08:02.840 ear in the moment, who doesn't have his ear in 0:08:02.880 --> 0:08:03.280 the moment? 0:08:03.560 --> 0:08:03.720 Right? 0:08:03.760 --> 0:08:06.560 Who got benched in this? I'm looking at you, Peter Navarro. 0:08:08.120 --> 0:08:10.800 What is the status of Howard Lutnick? 0:08:10.920 --> 0:08:11.080 Right? 0:08:11.200 --> 0:08:13.480 Does he have a cell by date? Well, everybody in 0:08:13.520 --> 0:08:15.440 Trump world is a sell by date. We just don't 0:08:15.480 --> 0:08:18.440 always know what date what dates on the milk carton. 0:08:19.520 --> 0:08:22.720 But is it sooner or is it later? All these 0:08:22.760 --> 0:08:24.760 things you're going to learn in this interview, But I 0:08:24.800 --> 0:08:27.880 do think it's helpful to understand we're all trying to 0:08:27.920 --> 0:08:32.040 figure out what guardrails were working with him, and there 0:08:32.080 --> 0:08:33.760 was a moment where it didn't look like there's going 0:08:33.800 --> 0:08:35.760 to be any guardrails on these tariffs, but it turns 0:08:35.760 --> 0:08:39.160 out there is. Is it rich people calling him and 0:08:39.240 --> 0:08:41.400 they all have his cell phone number? Is it them 0:08:41.440 --> 0:08:45.240 that did it? Is it the bond market that did it? 0:08:45.400 --> 0:08:50.760 Is it members of Congress? Whatever it was, the combination 0:08:50.920 --> 0:08:54.640 of all of it did serve as a temporary guardrail 0:08:54.720 --> 0:08:58.400 here on, at least pulling back on the most catastrophic 0:08:58.480 --> 0:09:01.680 parts of this tariff policy. We're not out of the woods, 0:09:02.400 --> 0:09:05.080 and by no means is this a healthy economy right now. 0:09:05.760 --> 0:09:07.600 And I'll be honest with you, I don't see how 0:09:07.640 --> 0:09:10.520 this gets better for him. I don't see how in 0:09:10.600 --> 0:09:14.240 this moment he's going to be talking country companies into 0:09:15.520 --> 0:09:18.600 putting shovels into the ground and building factories in this 0:09:19.120 --> 0:09:24.880 uncertain business climate. So how does he incentivize that for 0:09:25.000 --> 0:09:28.920 this tariff policy idea to work? And I'm skeptical it's 0:09:28.960 --> 0:09:32.199 going to work, because again I equate it to trying 0:09:32.240 --> 0:09:36.920 to rescue the ice block industry. Refrigeration is what works now. 0:09:36.960 --> 0:09:40.200 We don't use blocks of ice. I know you're not 0:09:40.240 --> 0:09:41.800 going to stop the global economy. 0:09:41.880 --> 0:09:42.400 You can't. 0:09:42.640 --> 0:09:46.440 You can't just somehow stop it in its tracks, rebuild 0:09:46.440 --> 0:09:52.079 it somewhere else without having massive, massive, catastrophic. 0:09:53.720 --> 0:09:56.120 Collateral damage. 0:09:56.240 --> 0:09:57.840 And I'll tell you one other thing that I want 0:09:57.880 --> 0:10:00.520 to leave you with that the tariffs are are already 0:10:00.640 --> 0:10:03.640 leading to, is that there's already been some business surveys 0:10:03.640 --> 0:10:06.720 out there that I've gotten my hands on that there 0:10:06.840 --> 0:10:10.000 is already an uptick in anti Americanism and it's going 0:10:10.080 --> 0:10:14.559 to impact companies that are associated with America. So already 0:10:14.760 --> 0:10:17.120 I know some fortune five hundred companies who have gotten 0:10:17.120 --> 0:10:21.719 some data where they're being told, hey, be prepared for this. 0:10:21.800 --> 0:10:24.800 If you sell products in Europe, if you sell products 0:10:24.840 --> 0:10:29.040 in the free parts of Asia, don't be surprised if 0:10:29.040 --> 0:10:32.720 you see some you know, form some boycotts things like this, 0:10:32.880 --> 0:10:36.440 because there's a lot of anger at America right now 0:10:36.679 --> 0:10:39.720 over these tariffs. And that's the thing that I think 0:10:39.800 --> 0:10:44.720 is being undersold to this. You know, this may he 0:10:44.800 --> 0:10:48.400 may believe this is going to help Americans, but if 0:10:48.480 --> 0:10:52.480 it ends up incentivizing American hate around the world and 0:10:52.640 --> 0:10:58.680 American hate of our companies and our economy, that doesn't 0:10:58.760 --> 0:11:02.040 lead to good outcomes for the long term security of 0:11:02.080 --> 0:11:06.760 the United States. So on that uplifting note on this Friday, 0:11:06.920 --> 0:11:10.000 particularly this Friday before Pats over, I'm gonna sneak in 0:11:10.040 --> 0:11:12.480 a break here and when you come back, my buddy 0:11:13.640 --> 0:11:17.400 from Miami, one of the most plugged in reporters that 0:11:17.600 --> 0:11:22.400 understands how this Trump White House currently works, and who's 0:11:22.559 --> 0:11:24.280 closest to the game of thrones. 0:11:24.360 --> 0:11:27.160 Who's the hand to the king these days? It is 0:11:27.280 --> 0:11:28.560 mister Mark Caputo. 0:11:35.720 --> 0:11:37.880 So joining me now is the person who I think 0:11:38.160 --> 0:11:43.480 has the best pulse on the Trump White House. It's 0:11:43.559 --> 0:11:46.480 not an easy thing, and we're going to discuss how 0:11:46.480 --> 0:11:49.319 do you know when to take a Trump source at 0:11:49.360 --> 0:11:52.920 their word, which is one of the great sort of 0:11:53.920 --> 0:11:58.720 enigmas trying to that that Washington produces these days. But 0:11:59.280 --> 0:12:04.319 Mark Caputo of Axios, the beat writer, uh for Trump, 0:12:04.320 --> 0:12:06.400 I guess you're what's your official title for Axios? 0:12:06.440 --> 0:12:08.720 Let me get it right, white House is Trump White 0:12:08.760 --> 0:12:09.400 House reporter? 0:12:09.720 --> 0:12:10.080 Uh? 0:12:10.600 --> 0:12:12.679 National political reporter some sort of. 0:12:13.200 --> 0:12:14.120 You are. 0:12:15.280 --> 0:12:16.960 Just to give a little bit of your credentials for 0:12:17.000 --> 0:12:19.480 those don't realize that one of the reasons you're on 0:12:19.520 --> 0:12:22.400 this beat. You're sort of the king of Florida reporting. 0:12:22.600 --> 0:12:25.440 I've known for so long political reporting, and the Trump 0:12:25.520 --> 0:12:31.199 white House is now basically the Florida produced by Florida 0:12:31.240 --> 0:12:35.800 power brokers. Donald Trump became a Floridian of sorts and 0:12:35.840 --> 0:12:38.160 became the Florida Florida man. 0:12:38.280 --> 0:12:39.000 Let's speak clear. 0:12:39.080 --> 0:12:43.600 Yeah he is now I know hundred percent from New York. 0:12:45.080 --> 0:12:47.400 But you are the first sort of beat writer not 0:12:47.520 --> 0:12:49.800 based in Washington for the White House. You are actually 0:12:49.880 --> 0:12:52.240 based in Miami. You come up a lot, don't get 0:12:52.240 --> 0:12:55.040 me wrong. You uh were kind enough to speak to 0:12:55.080 --> 0:12:56.840 my us C class a couple of weeks ago. 0:12:58.320 --> 0:13:01.520 Uh and that was very fat. But here you are. 0:13:01.720 --> 0:13:04.559 And I guess the number one question I have after 0:13:04.640 --> 0:13:08.080 the the gyrations of the week with trade and tariff 0:13:08.160 --> 0:13:11.600 is we know Donald Trump never makes a mistake, So 0:13:11.679 --> 0:13:15.960 the question is who takes the fall. It appears Peter 0:13:16.040 --> 0:13:20.360 Navarro has been benched for a while. Now we know 0:13:21.160 --> 0:13:23.760 you can be benched. It doesn't mean you're ostracized. There's 0:13:23.800 --> 0:13:27.800 a difference. There's ostracizing there's Benching, and then there's still 0:13:27.800 --> 0:13:31.960 in the inner circle. Howard Lutnik is the first person 0:13:32.000 --> 0:13:36.360 I want to ask about, because if the next after Navarro, 0:13:37.160 --> 0:13:39.600 he is the person seen as the architect of this 0:13:39.679 --> 0:13:43.839 disaster who's getting blamed. 0:13:43.559 --> 0:13:46.520 Here, I think you've probably hit it on the head. 0:13:46.720 --> 0:13:50.520 The interesting thing about Lutnik is that he's got so 0:13:50.640 --> 0:13:53.880 many critics in the administration, and I think a lot 0:13:53.920 --> 0:13:54.520 of it just. 0:13:54.520 --> 0:13:59.120 Boils down to his style. He is this outer Burrow 0:13:59.760 --> 0:14:01.160 be like, hey. 0:14:01.000 --> 0:14:05.400 I gotta tell you something, And he's got the He's 0:14:05.440 --> 0:14:08.280 got a lot of these Trumpet qualities where like like, 0:14:08.400 --> 0:14:10.760 no one knows finance better than I. Now, don't get 0:14:10.800 --> 0:14:13.160 me wrong or me uh, I mean, he's a billionaire, 0:14:13.200 --> 0:14:14.000 self made man. 0:14:13.920 --> 0:14:14.360 Et cetera. 0:14:14.880 --> 0:14:18.040 But you know, in the Trump White House, it's like highlander, right, 0:14:18.080 --> 0:14:19.920 there can only be one. 0:14:20.080 --> 0:14:21.080 There only can be one. 0:14:22.080 --> 0:14:24.000 But that's the thing, Like, it is always funny to 0:14:24.000 --> 0:14:27.800 me to watch Republican members of Congress who is giving 0:14:27.880 --> 0:14:30.320 him this bad advice? Who is telling him to do 0:14:30.360 --> 0:14:33.840 these things? And you're like, wow, you know you you 0:14:33.880 --> 0:14:36.880 know it can't be, dear leader, We know this, So 0:14:36.960 --> 0:14:40.480 who's the bad whisperer? Here right, like, so, I. 0:14:40.400 --> 0:14:42.720 Mean Donald Trump, Donald Trump's wanted to do that. Let's 0:14:42.720 --> 0:14:44.560 just be clear. Donald Trump is wanted to do this. 0:14:44.480 --> 0:14:47.520 For thirty years or whatever it was when we first. 0:14:47.360 --> 0:14:50.400 Talked about running. The reason he had Peter Navarro there 0:14:50.800 --> 0:14:53.160 was to cook up a formula. And the formula you 0:14:53.240 --> 0:14:56.680 cooked up, according to every analyst who knows what they're 0:14:56.680 --> 0:14:58.120 talking about, was just absurd. 0:14:58.200 --> 0:14:59.360 The columns were wrong. 0:14:59.680 --> 0:15:02.600 But Dave Trump what he needed, and so Navarro sort 0:15:02.600 --> 0:15:05.240 of served his purpose. But I want to be clear 0:15:05.320 --> 0:15:09.040 about Lutnik is, while I understand all the reporting that's 0:15:09.080 --> 0:15:12.640 been done about people being annoyed with him and oh 0:15:12.680 --> 0:15:15.680 he went off script and oh we did this. Yeah, 0:15:16.200 --> 0:15:18.760 as of now, and this could change in five minutes 0:15:19.320 --> 0:15:22.240 between when you post it, as of now, Howard Lutnik 0:15:22.280 --> 0:15:24.800 is in good stead. I mean, it's basically like him 0:15:25.160 --> 0:15:29.640 the Commerce Secretary and the Treasury Secretary Scott besson't and Besting' 0:15:29.640 --> 0:15:32.200 is crew of the leader. But they're operating sort of 0:15:32.200 --> 0:15:32.960 in tandem. 0:15:33.000 --> 0:15:34.440 And if if. 0:15:34.320 --> 0:15:37.040 Lutnick was really on the outs this way, he wouldn't 0:15:37.040 --> 0:15:38.320 be on television all the time. 0:15:38.560 --> 0:15:39.400 And he's on telephone. 0:15:39.480 --> 0:15:43.480 Yeah, I take that, and I but I tell you 0:15:43.520 --> 0:15:45.680 what wreaked of desperation of him when he wanted to 0:15:45.800 --> 0:15:47.680 let everybody know he was in the White House at 0:15:47.680 --> 0:15:50.160 the moment giving that tweet out, And that told me 0:15:50.960 --> 0:15:53.040 he clearly wanted to send the message I'm not on 0:15:53.080 --> 0:15:54.960 the outs, I've not been I'm not the I'm not 0:15:55.000 --> 0:15:58.280 getting blamed here, I'm sitting with your leader, right And 0:15:58.320 --> 0:15:59.960 it was like it it really was sort of a 0:16:00.240 --> 0:16:03.440 proof of life right the way he worded that tweet. 0:16:03.520 --> 0:16:06.600 So it told me he certainly was worried he was 0:16:06.640 --> 0:16:08.040 going to get scapegoatd How's that. 0:16:08.160 --> 0:16:11.720 Yeah, Well, he knows and his people know that there 0:16:11.720 --> 0:16:16.440 are multiple people in and around the administration that don't 0:16:16.520 --> 0:16:20.440 like him. And even though he's a billionaire, he bought 0:16:20.480 --> 0:16:24.080 a thirty million dollar house in the DC area, and 0:16:24.120 --> 0:16:25.520 he wants to be able to live in it for 0:16:25.560 --> 0:16:27.880 more than a few months before he kind of has to. 0:16:27.840 --> 0:16:28.760 Go back home. 0:16:29.120 --> 0:16:31.640 By the way, the high end real estate market in DC, 0:16:31.920 --> 0:16:35.200 my goodness, Stryt, Mark Zuckerberg, Howard Lutnick. I mean, the 0:16:35.280 --> 0:16:39.080 first administration, it was really just Wilbur Ross that truly 0:16:39.160 --> 0:16:44.840 planted some expensive stakes into this boy. This is another 0:16:45.000 --> 0:16:47.120 level there does feel as if a lot of people 0:16:47.160 --> 0:16:51.040 feel the need that to get close to deer leader, 0:16:51.960 --> 0:16:54.840 you've got to live You've got to live here, You've 0:16:54.840 --> 0:16:55.680 got to have a house here. 0:16:55.800 --> 0:16:57.600 One of the you're talking about the sort of the 0:16:57.600 --> 0:17:00.360 deer leader dynamic. There's a really good his treat book 0:17:00.360 --> 0:17:02.760 called The World by Simon Sebeg montafy Or, and at 0:17:02.800 --> 0:17:05.520 the very beginning of it he points out how potentates 0:17:05.560 --> 0:17:11.159 throughout history have courts that are characterized by the closeness 0:17:11.160 --> 0:17:14.399 to power is equals the more power you have. 0:17:14.800 --> 0:17:17.080 Yeah, I'm glad you just used that phrase. That's exactly 0:17:17.200 --> 0:17:20.560 this is. This is his core totally right. You know, 0:17:20.640 --> 0:17:23.480 he has certain people that he wants in it to 0:17:24.280 --> 0:17:27.040 play with until he's tired of them, right, I mean, 0:17:27.119 --> 0:17:28.879 and he's by the way, and he'll get tired of them. 0:17:28.920 --> 0:17:29.320 We know this. 0:17:29.520 --> 0:17:32.320 We just don't know who get in what order do 0:17:32.359 --> 0:17:34.080 they get ostracized and replaced? 0:17:34.160 --> 0:17:36.320 Yeah, I mean, not to engage too much in the 0:17:36.800 --> 0:17:40.800 sort of the Trump world survivor, but yeah, I guess 0:17:40.920 --> 0:17:44.160 it's sort of down. The betting markets are probably down. 0:17:44.800 --> 0:17:50.520 Are are most likely to forecast either WHATNIK departing or NSA. 0:17:51.040 --> 0:17:53.119 The National Security advisor Mike Waalts, who. 0:17:53.040 --> 0:17:56.080 Oh to which one? Which one? Yeah? Yeah? So I 0:17:56.080 --> 0:17:58.040 mean if you're if you're a betting man, you know. 0:17:58.480 --> 0:18:00.359 All right, But let's talk about because I think the 0:18:00.400 --> 0:18:05.280 biggest fear many many folks had, including myself, was what 0:18:05.400 --> 0:18:07.840 if you know, we all look, I think we all 0:18:07.880 --> 0:18:10.399 assume the markets were going to be a guardrail with 0:18:10.520 --> 0:18:14.119 Trump on these policies and it for the entire weekend. 0:18:14.160 --> 0:18:16.920 You're like, oh no, what if this is Thelman Luise? 0:18:17.480 --> 0:18:20.440 What if he's like, you know what, I ain't running again. 0:18:21.000 --> 0:18:23.320 I always wanted to do this. I believe in it, 0:18:24.040 --> 0:18:26.159 and I don't. I'm never going to be poor? What 0:18:26.240 --> 0:18:31.000 do I care? Let's go right? And then he did 0:18:31.040 --> 0:18:33.320 finally change course. What did it? 0:18:33.400 --> 0:18:33.680 Is it? 0:18:33.920 --> 0:18:37.320 Who spooked him? Who scared him? Who had the ear? 0:18:37.640 --> 0:18:39.119 Who is the real guardrail? 0:18:39.160 --> 0:18:39.400 Here? 0:18:40.200 --> 0:18:43.840 Is it? Best from my reporting which I wrote, is 0:18:43.920 --> 0:18:49.800 there were basically three factors that combined to have Trump 0:18:49.920 --> 0:18:51.720 change his mind. Number One, he was hearing from every 0:18:51.720 --> 0:18:54.280 possible CEO, so E Susie Wilder. 0:18:54.080 --> 0:18:55.919 And they all have him at speed down, don't they correct? 0:18:56.200 --> 0:18:59.400 Or between him and her, they all have these two 0:18:59.440 --> 0:19:03.679 cell phones, so they were getting direct agitated calls. 0:19:03.760 --> 0:19:05.240 So you get correct and that that's there. 0:19:05.320 --> 0:19:10.160 But but the three factors bottom line were besn't and 0:19:10.160 --> 0:19:15.800 and Lutnik went in there certainly with the hope of 0:19:15.840 --> 0:19:20.399 getting a pause, and so their pitch was, hey, we 0:19:20.480 --> 0:19:22.800 got seventy five countries that want to make a deal now, 0:19:23.520 --> 0:19:26.199 and we don't have the time and staff to do this. Like, 0:19:26.760 --> 0:19:29.520 let's sort of like, how do you And they didn't say, 0:19:29.600 --> 0:19:32.240 let's do this. Apparently they said, what do you want 0:19:32.240 --> 0:19:34.720 to do? Right, like, because you don't tell Donald Trump 0:19:34.760 --> 0:19:36.000 what to do with you present the. 0:19:37.680 --> 0:19:40.640 Hockey choice, right, you know. So so that was one. 0:19:41.240 --> 0:19:44.400 The second one that was part of it was China is, hey, 0:19:44.520 --> 0:19:48.160 China came out and disrespected you with raising the tariffs, 0:19:48.359 --> 0:19:51.600 and now you have this goal and opportunity of doing 0:19:51.600 --> 0:19:55.080 a pause, making a deal with everyone and isolating China 0:19:55.119 --> 0:19:57.560 and putting a ring around China. And then the third one, 0:19:57.920 --> 0:19:59.679 and this is probably not in order if you think 0:19:59.680 --> 0:20:02.440 about it, it's just the bond market and the stock market. 0:20:02.440 --> 0:20:05.000 But really, like the bond traders are still that's still 0:20:05.000 --> 0:20:09.960 the spine of the being of the vertebrate of the 0:20:10.040 --> 0:20:14.159 United States and perhaps global financial markets and it is gold. 0:20:14.280 --> 0:20:15.480 It is the gold bar. 0:20:15.840 --> 0:20:21.359 Of the twenty first century. Gold bars are great, Treasury bonds. 0:20:20.880 --> 0:20:22.760 Are greater, are greater. 0:20:22.960 --> 0:20:26.479 So so it was sort of those three factors. It 0:20:26.520 --> 0:20:28.280 was not just sort of one person. And though it 0:20:28.320 --> 0:20:31.240 wasn't as only Bill Ackman out there pounding away on 0:20:31.280 --> 0:20:32.800 Twitter like oh please. 0:20:32.560 --> 0:20:35.160 Really, Bill Ackman's tweets didn't have an impact up shot, 0:20:35.800 --> 0:20:36.320 they did not. 0:20:36.760 --> 0:20:39.760 You're talking about It's like coffee plantation or something like 0:20:39.960 --> 0:20:41.200 a heart goes out to you. 0:20:41.720 --> 0:20:44.719 But you know Trump. 0:20:44.880 --> 0:20:47.439 What's always interesting about Trump, especially the more time you 0:20:47.480 --> 0:20:50.480 give him, is while he is not known for telling 0:20:50.480 --> 0:20:54.360 the truth, is that there is a sodium pentathl quality 0:20:54.640 --> 0:20:55.560 about Trump. 0:20:55.920 --> 0:20:57.119 He always tells you. 0:20:56.880 --> 0:20:59.880 Correct, you've just got to content figure out that yesterday 0:21:00.080 --> 0:21:00.720 He's like the ball. 0:21:02.320 --> 0:21:06.320 Market, Yeah yeah, and and and yet, dear leader. Yet 0:21:06.480 --> 0:21:10.960 you know Levitt, the bag dad Bob. God, what is 0:21:11.000 --> 0:21:11.480 she doing. 0:21:11.840 --> 0:21:13.840 She's doing what she's supposed to do with That's her job, 0:21:14.320 --> 0:21:14.960 I guess. 0:21:15.080 --> 0:21:18.320 But it really does feel like bagdad Bob has met 0:21:18.359 --> 0:21:21.440 North Korea. Between that and these and these reports about 0:21:21.480 --> 0:21:22.960