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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Buck Sexton Show podcast, make sure

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Speaker 1: you subscribe to the podcast on the iHeartRadio app or

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Speaker 1: wherever you get your podcasts.

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Speaker 2: Hey, everybody, Welcome to the Buck Brief. Jeremy Carl is

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Speaker 2: with us. He's a senior fellow at the Claremont Institute,

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Speaker 2: author of The Unprotected Class. Jeremy, let's jump into it

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Speaker 2: early voting, because the election is pretty much underway as

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Speaker 2: we talk.

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Speaker 3: What are you seeing You're following it closely?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, I'm very encouraged by what I'm seeing

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Speaker 1: so far, and I want to be cautious because you

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Speaker 1: can get a lot of these partisan accounts and they'll

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Speaker 1: always kind of give you the really good statistics and

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Speaker 1: they'll sort of gloss over things that don't look as good.

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Speaker 1: But I'd say, particularly in places like Georgia and Pennsylvania,

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Speaker 1: as best we can tell, certainly, we're dramatically outperforming where

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Speaker 1: we were with mail in ballots or in George's case,

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Speaker 1: early voting in the twenty twenty cycle, and that was

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Speaker 1: a weird cycle, but also looking better than we did

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Speaker 1: in twenty twenty two, and given that those were breadth

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Speaker 1: elections in both of those times, you know, it's just

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Speaker 1: going to take a couple points. So I think there's

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Speaker 1: a lot of room for optimism, but no room for complacency.

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Speaker 2: Now, if you were defined an area of the campaign

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Speaker 2: right now that you think is most in need of attention,

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Speaker 2: the Trump campaign, that is the Kamala campaign.

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Speaker 3: I think the whole thing is a needed attention.

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Speaker 2: I think so far, even honest Democrats realize this has

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Speaker 2: been a disaster. But what on the Trump side of things.

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Speaker 2: Where are you hoping to see, you know, the numbers

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Speaker 2: start to get a little better and things start to

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Speaker 2: improve between now an election day, if that's possible.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, well, I still think that I'm writing a piece

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Speaker 1: on this right now. Trump is really struggling with white

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Speaker 1: college age Democrats, educated Democrats, which are rather voters who

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Speaker 1: are leaning significantly for the Democrats. And given that, as

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Speaker 1: I document, in the unprotected class, I mean the Democratic

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Speaker 1: Party and Kamala Harris just yesterday basically calling for reparations

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Speaker 1: and or talked with Charlotmagne, the god the kind of influential,

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Speaker 1: kind of African American media personality that they're pushing affirmative

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Speaker 1: action that they're pushing, you know, kind of disparate impact

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Speaker 1: things at the workplace. The fact that given all that,

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Speaker 1: and of course with immigration, that Trump is still struggling

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Speaker 1: so much with that demographic. I just think he's making

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Speaker 1: these appeals separately, but he hasn't sort of all tied

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Speaker 1: it into a bow. And there's still a little bit

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Speaker 1: of white voters being the demographic that dare not speak

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Speaker 1: its name and nobody else will speak their name either,

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Speaker 1: and make an actual appeal, not in an irresponsible way,

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Speaker 1: but just simply to say, hey, Kamalin and the Democrats

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Speaker 1: are not your friends, and you know I'm gonna look

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Speaker 1: out for you, in the same way that he has

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Speaker 1: made these appeals to African American voters, to Hispanic voters,

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Speaker 1: to women voters. He's doing a town hall today, I think,

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Speaker 1: and you know, I just think he could shore up there.

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Speaker 2: Jeremy, I don't know if you saw so. I was

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Speaker 2: on the Bill mahershow, and the chosen topic was why

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Speaker 2: Democrats have a problem with men and why Democrats are

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Speaker 2: the sort of anti masculine party. And when I tried

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Speaker 2: to discuss it, you know what the rest of the

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Speaker 2: Democrats at president wanted to talk at. What their response was,

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Speaker 2: how dare you not talk about women and minorities?

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Speaker 1: Yeah?

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Speaker 3: Sit here, I'm like, so this is this is the situation. Huh,

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Speaker 3: So you can't and it's also fasting.

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Speaker 2: I mean, you could have the the I don't know,

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Speaker 2: affinity group, whatever you want.

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Speaker 3: To call it. White guys for Harris is a thing.

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Speaker 2: I don't think anyone's allowed to have a white guys

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Speaker 2: for Trump election group.

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Speaker 3: That's not allowed.

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Speaker 1: No, of course, of course not. And you're exactly right

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Speaker 1: about men, and of course the Harris campaign is having

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Speaker 1: trouble with them for good reason because her you know,

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Speaker 1: her platform and everything that she's doing is frankly toxic

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Speaker 1: to a lot of old men out there, and you're

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Speaker 1: seeing that across ethnic groups. But but yes, you can't. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: the left will not allow you to speak about certain groups,

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Speaker 1: or they won't even let you talk about the difference

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Speaker 1: between married women who in general support Trump versus single

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Speaker 1: women who overwhelmingly will support Harris, because that might reflect

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Speaker 1: badly maybe get some of the choices that more liberal

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Speaker 1: women are making.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I was going to say, is there anything that

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Speaker 2: Trump can do with college educated white voters?

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Speaker 1: Yeah?

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Speaker 2: I know that this is going to be you know

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Speaker 2: when you talk advanced degrees or overwhelmingly unfortunately talking especially

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Speaker 2: in the humanities, right, or overwhelmingly talking about left wing democrats.

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Speaker 2: That's no surprise he's not going to win much there.

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Speaker 2: But college educated is a very broad reality now, right,

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Speaker 2: A lot of people go to a whole range of

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Speaker 2: different colleges. Is Trump not doing as well as you

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Speaker 2: think he could with that demographic? Is it just the

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Speaker 2: cultural affinity of everybody who's gone, You know, everyone with

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Speaker 2: a university degree is hearing from all their university buddies

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Speaker 2: or professors. Depends on how old we're talking about here,

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Speaker 2: that Trump is hitler and they just have to go

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Speaker 2: along with that. Like, why it would seem to me

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Speaker 2: that the college educated demographic, particularly white college educated voters,

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Speaker 2: would see that Kamala Harris is a kind of a

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Speaker 2: preposterous candidate. I mean, there's nothing about this that should

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Speaker 2: appeal to anybody who can do even the most basic analysis.

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Speaker 1: Well, that's certainly my view, And again, I think it

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Speaker 1: just may be difficult for Trump personally to make that

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Speaker 1: case because if you look at this demographic, and I've

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Speaker 1: been kind of going through all of this sort of

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Speaker 1: nerdy survey data, and this is about fourteen to fifteen

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Speaker 1: percent of the electorate, which is white college graduates who

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Speaker 1: are self described moderates. Okay, the liberal self described liberals

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Speaker 1: and conservatives are the most consistent voters in the entire electorate.

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Speaker 1: If you're a self described liberal white college graduate, and

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Speaker 1: these are basically equal sized groups, you vote for the Democrats.

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Speaker 1: If you're a self described conservative white college democrat, these

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Speaker 1: are both about twenty seven percent of the white college

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Speaker 1: educated vote. They all vote for Republicans. But that middle group,

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Speaker 1: that forty five percent of white college age folks is

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Speaker 1: really our graduate folks, is really up for grabs, and

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Speaker 1: unfortunately they have a very negative view of Trump personally,

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Speaker 1: even though they don't necessarily maybe love some things about

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Speaker 1: either party. It's one of the reasons I think that

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Speaker 1: maybe JD. Vance is the right person to make this

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Speaker 1: argument for the campaign in the home stretch, because I

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Speaker 1: think his entire affect the way he presents himself. In

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Speaker 1: the same way that Trump is kind of an avatar

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Speaker 1: for a certain white working class voter and they love him,

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Speaker 1: I think Vance can do that a little bit for

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Speaker 1: the college graduate voter, and so I think maybe he's

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Speaker 1: the right person to kind of be making that argument

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Speaker 1: down the stretch for the campaign.

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Speaker 2: Did you see Tim Walls with his like, I don't

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Speaker 2: even know what I don't even know what a venture

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Speaker 2: capitalist does. I just think it's interesting to watch the

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Speaker 2: Democrats put forward somebody whose version of a normal like

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Speaker 2: Midwest American guy Dad whatever is somebody who's like the

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Speaker 2: bumbling buffoon dad on a sitcom. You know that, that

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Speaker 2: to me says something.

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Speaker 1: No, absolutely, I mean, he continues to be a white

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Speaker 1: minstrel show. He's a step and fetch it white guy

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Speaker 1: for the twenty first century. And the fact that he's

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Speaker 1: doing things like bragging as a governor who you know

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Speaker 1: who could be a heartbeat from the presidency. That he

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Speaker 1: doesn't even understand what one of the biggest engines of

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Speaker 1: our economy is in venture capital should be embarrassing and

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Speaker 1: disqualifying it. Again, I say that not just because not

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Speaker 1: because every one of your listeners or viewers here needs

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Speaker 1: to know what venture capitalists do. But they're not about

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Speaker 1: to step into the White House, right. We need like

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Speaker 1: a certain standard of competence and and you know, Waltz

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Speaker 1: both just doesn't have it and almost revels in not

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Speaker 1: having it. And it's it's kind of it's it's an

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Speaker 1: embarrassing view of people in general, but certainly white guys

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Speaker 1: in particular.

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Speaker 2: I feel like you could run all these these kind

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Speaker 2: of fun spoof ads. It's like, yeah, vote for Tim Walls,

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Speaker 2: because you need a guy it doesn't really know much

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Speaker 2: as vice president, you know what I mean.

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Speaker 3: You need a guy who's gonna go there. He's gonna

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Speaker 3: just you know, he's gonna just be a guy doesn't read,

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Speaker 3: doesn't know stuff.

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Speaker 2: And I can just imagine if you're a voter in

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Speaker 2: particularly the rust belt states that are really up for grabs,

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Speaker 2: you know, Pennsylvania up into Wisconsin, you say to yourself,

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Speaker 2: so this is what they think of us.

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Speaker 3: It's like, oh yeah, I can't handle the big words

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Speaker 3: and the books. Vote Tim Walls.

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Speaker 1: It's it's true. And you know, it's really got to

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Speaker 1: be painful to the Democrats as the so called party

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Speaker 1: of intellectuals that I mean truly. I mean, we all

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Speaker 1: have our biases, right, but there's just simply no way

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Speaker 1: that Trump and Vance are not by far the two

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Speaker 1: smartest people of the floor. On these tickets. I mean,

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Speaker 1: there is a significant IQ gap between these tickets and

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Speaker 1: the Democrats for them to kind of be the party

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Speaker 1: of the quote unquote so called smart people, to be

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Speaker 1: running two people as just intellectually unimpressive as Harrison Waltz,

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Speaker 1: you know, that just kind of has to stick in

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Speaker 1: their craw in a really painful way because when it

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Speaker 1: certainly obviously Vance is brilliant, and I think Trump is.

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Speaker 1: You know, he was frequently talks about him being high

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Speaker 1: I Q, but I think he actually is very underrated.

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Speaker 1: He's a He's a very smart and capable guy. Uh,

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Speaker 1: you know, whether or not people like him or dislike him,

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Speaker 1: I don't think you can underestimate his actual intelectrical ability.

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Speaker 2: I want to I don't want to celebrate early. That's

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Speaker 2: one of my mantras in life, because I've just seen

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Speaker 2: how devastating that can be to people. And you know,

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Speaker 2: you don't want to be the guy high stepping into

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Speaker 2: the end zone and you get absolutely laid out and

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Speaker 2: you fumble at the two yard line.

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Speaker 3: Right, So I get it, that's the rough one.

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Speaker 2: But but the uh uh, the question I want to

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Speaker 2: ask when we come back here is what happens if

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Speaker 2: Trump wins? In terms of the Democrat response. All Right,

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Speaker 2: we want to get into that in a second. Across America,

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Speaker 2: a so called strange accidents are becoming the new normal,

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Speaker 2: and our sponsor, Stansbury Research, says that you need to

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Speaker 2: know that this is part of a broader trend nine

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Speaker 2: on one call centers going offline for hours at a time.

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Speaker 2: He may have read that medical errors have increased dramat

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Speaker 2: since twenty twenty. Most people understand there's something really wrong

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Speaker 2: with this country infrastructure wise. Systemically, there are problems. The

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Speaker 2: wheels are falling off. Learn what's really happening and why,

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Speaker 2: and how you can prepare and how you can actually

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Speaker 2: disaster dot com, a massive new accident could be coming

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Speaker 2: they see coming and what you need to do. Go

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Speaker 2: to America disaster dot com. It's America disaster dot com

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Speaker 2: paid for by Stansbury Research. Okay, so how do you say, like,

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Speaker 2: let's just have for the fun of conversation right now.

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Speaker 2: But this will be great if we end up playing

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Speaker 2: this after a Trump win and you know you nail everything.

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Speaker 2: So what do they do if Donald Trump wins this election? Handily,

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Speaker 2: So it's not like dragged out over days. He wins

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Speaker 2: the swing states, he's he's going to be the president.

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Speaker 2: What do you see happening?

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Speaker 1: Well, I saw Mark Halper and I think sort of

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Speaker 1: saying that this would be like the biggest mental health

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Speaker 1: crisis in the history of America because you take these

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Speaker 1: Democrats and by the way, again I'm not being partisan here,

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Speaker 1: this is all data driven. I mean, this is already

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Speaker 1: a much more mentally unwell population by self description than Republicans.

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Speaker 1: And you kind of add this stresser of Orange Hitler

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Speaker 1: being in the White House, and I think a lot

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Speaker 1: of these guys are just gonna lose it. And I

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Speaker 1: do worry also, of course, that we might have a

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Speaker 1: January six type thing, but for real, not a fake

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Speaker 1: insurrection like the one that the Democrats, you know, took

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Speaker 1: a rally that got out of hand with a couple

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Speaker 1: hundred people, but like that, the Democrats, you know, might

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Speaker 1: actually actively justify attempting to keep him, you know, from

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Speaker 1: assuming office. And certainly they've shown with their law fair

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Speaker 1: and everything else they've done with Trump that they really

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Speaker 1: won't stop at anything. So it's going to be concerning.

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Speaker 1: I don't think we can let our guard down, even

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Speaker 1: if we get a great result on election night, will

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Speaker 1: just be the first step.

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Speaker 2: You think, riots though, because I you know, I also

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Speaker 2: you have to go watch the Bill mar episode I

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Speaker 2: was on because you'll see some of these things. It

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Speaker 2: was actually a lot of fun for me, even though

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Speaker 2: they were all hating on me. The audience did laugh

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Speaker 2: at a few things that I said, But I pointed out

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Speaker 2: that the twenty twenty election, this has never talked to

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Speaker 2: it anymore. In my I was living in New York

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Speaker 2: at the time. There were preparations for the guaranteed mass

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Speaker 2: riots if Donald Trump won, by businesses, by people who

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Speaker 2: this wasn't a political thing. It was I need to

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Speaker 2: board up my business on election day and have it

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Speaker 2: so that they can't just you know, take everything, you know,

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Speaker 2: break the windows, steal everything. Of course, we know ended

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Speaker 2: up happening. Donald Trump ended up not becoming president. But

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Speaker 2: I feel like this time around, if Trump wins, it

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Speaker 2: could be even crazier than that in some ways, because

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Speaker 2: they've all been fed the insurrection narrative and the prosecutions

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Speaker 2: of Trump and all the rest of it.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, I think absolutely it's a risk. I

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Speaker 1: do think that part of again my opt about twenty

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Speaker 1: twenty four, as I do think that in some ways,

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Speaker 1: in their heart of hearts, some of the folks, even

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Speaker 1: who do not like Trump, are kind of resigned to

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Speaker 1: what is probably coming, and so there may be a

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Speaker 1: little bit more of an attempt to restore order on

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Speaker 1: those first part. But you know, like the activist left

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Speaker 1: is going to go absolutely nuts, and it'll be fascinating

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Speaker 1: to kind of see, yeah, that's o trade. Even in

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Speaker 1: twenty sixteen. Of course, we had this at Trump's inauguration

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Speaker 1: and it's it's sort of been memory hold. But you know,

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Speaker 1: the left nuts, they're crazy. That's why we're in the

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Speaker 1: situation we're in, and we just need to we need

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Speaker 1: to just do everything we can to make sure that

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Speaker 1: we win by the type of margin that we'll will

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Speaker 1: cause them to think twice before they do anything stupid.

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Speaker 2: You know, you've got to be prepared these days, there's crime,

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Speaker 3: Jeremy.

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Speaker 2: Any predictions you want to make this is great too,

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Speaker 2: because if you get it wrong, we'll just pretend like

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Speaker 2: this never happened. But next time you're on for the election,

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Speaker 2: if you get it right. Any Senate races you want

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Speaker 2: to call now or anything like that, just just throwing

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Speaker 2: it out there.

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Speaker 1: Well, yeah, absolutely, So I can feel great confidence because

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Speaker 1: I live in Montana and have been following that race

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Speaker 1: very very closely, and if I go to church with

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Speaker 1: Center Gifne, the NRSC won't repeat any conversations. And confidence.

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Speaker 1: But I just you know, we're up on that in

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Speaker 1: the polls by seven or eight points in pretty much

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Speaker 1: everything that's been out recently, and I think we're going

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Speaker 1: to win that by at least that. In my view,

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Speaker 1: I think Tester is going to lose.

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Speaker 3: Why is the significant?

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Speaker 2: Why is Tester call he's the incumbent like he's Why

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Speaker 2: is he collapsing? Is it just just whole like I'm

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Speaker 2: I'm a maverick Democrat who likes cowboy boots, Like is

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Speaker 2: that just not working this time?

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Speaker 1: It really is? I mean a little bit. The New

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Speaker 1: York Times likes to run these articles that says, Oh,

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Speaker 1: it's all these newcomers, and yeah, I mean that's that's certainly,

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Speaker 1: you know, that's a that's a piece of it. But

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Speaker 1: really I think it's just his stick as a moderate Democrat,

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Speaker 1: which is almost become an oxymoron. It just doesn't work anymore.

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Speaker 1: He's not he's he has voted for every single one

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Speaker 1: of the Democrats radical judges and policies. And we've just

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Speaker 1: been reminding Montana voters who are really quite conservative about

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Speaker 1: that we have a capable candidate and Tim Sheey, and

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Speaker 1: it's just the votes are just not going to be

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Speaker 1: there for him. And I know that we're we're kind

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Speaker 1: of excited about that. So I think we're going to

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Speaker 1: win that Senate race. And I'm feeling pretty good about

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Speaker 1: Ohio as well. And I think the NRSC just put

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Speaker 1: out a poll showing us up in Wisconsin, and I

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Speaker 1: think that that one could well break for us. And look,

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Speaker 1: if everything goes really right, it's not impossible we pick

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Speaker 1: up six or seven Senate seats this cycle, but I

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Speaker 1: think at least we're going to pick up the three

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Speaker 1: or so that at the kind of not worst case,

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Speaker 1: but even in a not such a great scenario that

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Speaker 1: are going to give us a comfortable Senate majority. And

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Speaker 1: the reason why that would be important is even if, unfortunately,

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Speaker 1: if we wound up unfortunate in the presidential race, Harris

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Speaker 1: would really be blocked from doing much if we controlled

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Speaker 1: the Senate and possibly the House, so we could really

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Speaker 1: kind of, you know, sort of keep that presidency from

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Speaker 1: taking off, so I have reasons to be optimistic.

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Speaker 2: Jeremy Carl of the Claremont Institute and Unprotected Classes, his book, Jeremy,

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Speaker 2: great to have you on.

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Speaker 3: We'll talk to you soon.

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Speaker 1: Absolutely, but pleasure to be on