Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at ten am
Speaker 1: Eastern on Applecarclay, and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App.
Speaker 1: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch
Speaker 1: us live on YouTube.
Speaker 2: John Tucker sitting in for Alex Steele. I'm Paul Sweeney.
Speaker 2: We are live here in our Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studio
Speaker 2: in New York City. We are streaming live on youtubees
Speaker 2: ahead over to YouTube dot com search Bloomberg Podcast Live,
Speaker 2: and that's where you'll find if we get some economic
Speaker 2: data today on the inflation front PCE. The smart folks
Speaker 2: look at that core PCE index month to month up
Speaker 2: zero point three percent, right in line with expectations on
Speaker 2: a year of a year basis two point six percent,
Speaker 2: again right in line with expectations in a little bit
Speaker 2: lower than last period. That's the number, you know. It's
Speaker 2: one of those numbers that the Fed would like to
Speaker 2: see closer to two percent, So maybe a little bit
Speaker 2: more work to do. They're pre Misery Joints, Fixed and Come.
Speaker 2: Portfolio Manager, JP Morgan Asset Management. What did you make
Speaker 2: of the inflation data. More importantly, how do you think
Speaker 2: our friends at the Federal Reserve are going to view
Speaker 2: this data?
Speaker 3: So I think the Fed realizes that inflation is above target.
Speaker 3: They like it to be closer to two percent. It's
Speaker 3: a two point six year over a year, so there's
Speaker 3: still more room for it to come down. But when
Speaker 3: we look at the details off the PC report, we
Speaker 3: are seeing improvements across the board. There are a couple
Speaker 3: of components that are high, but they're heading lower. So
Speaker 3: I think it's good news came and kind of as expected.
Speaker 3: It tells us that the Fed is in no rush
Speaker 3: to cut rates and they're going to stay on hold.
Speaker 3: We're actually I think the market's focus is moving away
Speaker 3: from inflation now more to growth and all the policy uncertainty.
Speaker 3: But at least it was good news in the sense
Speaker 3: that it didn't pick back up, which was a concern
Speaker 3: late last year that inflation may be reaccelerating. I think
Speaker 3: we can put that fear aside now. I think the
Speaker 3: fears are shifting to the growth side.
Speaker 4: The Atlanta Fed GDP now tracker of Q one GDP
Speaker 4: growth now forecast at negative one and a half percent.
Speaker 4: I mean that's recessionary territory.
Speaker 3: Your take on that, you know, I think today's trade
Speaker 3: deficit came in so much weaker than people were expecting.
Speaker 3: We've heard that the gold imports from the rest of
Speaker 3: the world is one of the factors. So I'd say
Speaker 3: it's less about like a big slowing in growth if
Speaker 3: it's all driven really by trade. But you know, I
Speaker 3: think the market is reacting to the fact that there
Speaker 3: is policy uncertainty. There's tariffs. We know tariffs are a
Speaker 3: stack creationary shock. What is doage doing? So I think
Speaker 3: there are growth fears. I would put aside some of
Speaker 3: the Atlanta fed recession fears. I think the hard data
Speaker 3: so far tier one data, and we're going to get
Speaker 3: a lot of it next week. We're keeping a very
Speaker 3: close watch on the labor market. Particularly the hard data
Speaker 3: has been Tier one data has been still strong. I
Speaker 3: think where the concern is some of the intimate data.
Speaker 3: Business uncertainty indices are picking up, you know, I think
Speaker 3: does this way on business investment, business hiring? That's the
Speaker 3: question market. I think the market's pricing in that side
Speaker 3: of the distribution, the growth risk side of the distribution,
Speaker 3: which I think the market was not really concerned about
Speaker 3: the last few years. That's picking up, But I would
Speaker 3: ignore the Atlanta fat I think we're not close to
Speaker 3: a recession. Let's see how the actual data is turning out.
Speaker 3: You have to do the seasonal adjustment, make sure you're
Speaker 3: accounting for what's happened with the LA wildfires. Let's look
Speaker 3: at the actual data when it comes out. I would
Speaker 3: say the economy is okay, but there are downside risks
Speaker 3: that are building. And that's why I think you're seeing
Speaker 3: the rates market react the way it has the last
Speaker 3: few weeks.
Speaker 2: Yes, we've seen rates come in here. So for your portfolio,
Speaker 2: what kind of changes, if any, have you been making recently?
Speaker 3: So we were leaning long duration closer to four and
Speaker 3: a quarter. We actually think duration looks fair. Now if
Speaker 3: the Tier one data starts to show things weakening further,
Speaker 3: then that you know we may be looking to go
Speaker 3: long duration. I think rates look very fair here. What
Speaker 3: we've been doing, though, is moving up in quality. So
Speaker 3: within our credit spectrum, trimming a little bit of high yield,
Speaker 3: moving up in quality investment grade. Just because with uncertainty,
Speaker 3: maybe it stays in the uncertainty mode, risk premium should
Speaker 3: be higher. And we should get paid to take that
Speaker 3: extra risk, which we don't think you're getting paid necessarily
Speaker 3: in every segment of the market. So we're looking at
Speaker 3: the portfolio, particularly the credit part of the portfolio, very closely,
Speaker 3: moving up in quality, making sure that the companies, the
Speaker 3: sectors we own are less sensitive to some of the
Speaker 3: headline risks that's out there. So just doing more of
Speaker 3: that credit work, but staying with it. I think we're
Speaker 3: in a soft landing and so you know, when the
Speaker 3: tenure was closer to four and a half, it was
Speaker 3: attractive to own duration. I think at this point we
Speaker 3: can be neutral duration and be careful with the spread
Speaker 3: product that we're buying.
Speaker 4: The administration is talking about tax cuts. Can I ask
Speaker 4: you how how much in tax cuts can this bond
Speaker 4: market stand.
Speaker 3: I'm glad you bring that up. I think the expectations
Speaker 3: of tax cuts were much higher, you know, a month ago,
Speaker 3: and I think the market realized that the administration has
Speaker 3: a constraint both politically as well as a market constrained,
Speaker 3: and I think expectations of those tax cuts have come down.
Speaker 3: You see the House past bill, Let's see what the
Speaker 3: Senate does with it. But I think the expect. Our
Speaker 3: expectation is all we'll really get is an extension of
Speaker 3: the twenty seventeen tax cuts. That's not net new stimulus. Now,
Speaker 3: that does increase the deficit, but I think that is
Speaker 3: priced into the bond market, so we're not expecting and
Speaker 3: I think the market's priced for not a whole lot
Speaker 3: more in terms of tax cuts. I think we're going
Speaker 3: to spend all year trying to find those pay fores,
Speaker 3: making sure that you know, we can at least just
Speaker 3: extend that twenty seventeen tax cuts. I don't think we're
Speaker 3: getting any more because to your point, the bond market
Speaker 3: is going to push back. And we know the president,
Speaker 3: you know Secretary Best and they care about the tenure.
Speaker 3: They realize that the tenure impacts the economy, it impacts
Speaker 3: risk assets. So I don't think they'll be able to
Speaker 3: get much because it's going to be tricky. Where do
Speaker 3: you get to spending cuts to offset just the extension
Speaker 3: of the TCJA is four trillion in deficits. So I
Speaker 3: think all we get is that extension, and I think
Speaker 3: that's in the market.
Speaker 5: All right.
Speaker 2: Prea, thank you so much for joining US Pria Israel.
Speaker 2: She's fixed in come portfolio manager over there at JP
Speaker 2: Morgan Asset Management, joining us from a New York City.
Speaker 4: She'd just say, I'm not getting a salt text deduction, Raist.
Speaker 2: I think that's still on the table, but I don't know.
Speaker 2: We'll have to say. That's a lot of the tri
Speaker 2: State lawmaker said, we're not voting for anything unless that
Speaker 2: solvet thing back in here to some degree.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live
Speaker 1: weekdays at ten am Eastern on Applecarclay and Android Otto
Speaker 1: with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on the and wherever
Speaker 1: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.
Speaker 5: John.
Speaker 2: As you know, the White House, as for every president,
Speaker 2: puts out a daily schedule for the president, what meetings
Speaker 2: here he has, and so on and so forth. He'll
Speaker 2: be jetting off to mar Alago this afternoon.
Speaker 5: And I would do the exact same thing.
Speaker 2: I mean, it's cold, go down to Florida, man, why not?
Speaker 2: I mean, I played that golf course way way way
Speaker 2: back in the day. It's pretty good, so why not
Speaker 2: go down there and play some golf, jump into the water.
Speaker 2: I would do the same thing, particularly if I had
Speaker 2: a jet in my disposal like Air Force one.
Speaker 5: Why wouldn't you.
Speaker 4: Well Truman called it the Winter White House down at Florida.
Speaker 2: Okay, very good, Yeah, I don't know. All right, let's
Speaker 2: check in on what's happening down in DC, because again,
Speaker 2: mister Zelenski is scheduled to be at the White House
Speaker 2: this morning, right now as we speak, speaking with President Trump.
Speaker 2: Doctor Aerol Cohen joins us he's a senior fellow at
Speaker 2: the Atlantic Council. A. Realistically, if you're mister Zelenski, what
Speaker 2: are you hoping to achieve?
Speaker 5: I try to get as much or as many.
Speaker 6: Security guarantees from the United States and also put on
Speaker 6: the table the following in order to keep Russia at bay.
Speaker 6: If they go to a ceasefire now or maybe eventually
Speaker 6: to a.
Speaker 7: Peace three, they will need about ten brigades of peacekeepers
Speaker 7: in Ukraine, well armed and potentially backed up by the
Speaker 7: nature nuclear umbrella.
Speaker 6: This is a conversation that needs to happen in the
Speaker 6: Oval right now. Anything short of that, Zelensky is giving
Speaker 6: Trump something which is very vague about critical minerals rare earth.
Speaker 5: We don't know where they are.
Speaker 6: Some of these rare earth are under Russian occupation in
Speaker 6: the eastern Ukraine called don Bas. And in the end
Speaker 6: of the day, the market for rare earth a three
Speaker 6: point five billion. Sixty five percent of mining is dominated
Speaker 6: by China, eighty five percent of processing is dominated by China.
Speaker 5: So we're not talking big bugs.
Speaker 6: If on the other hand, Trump tells his audience, his electorate, look,
Speaker 6: I got this wonderful agreement. Now we need to back Ukraine.
Speaker 6: That is a Trump political domestic achievement. And if that's
Speaker 6: where he's going, more power to him. But in the
Speaker 6: end of the day, the long term American interests do
Speaker 6: not change based on who's in the White House. We
Speaker 6: the United States have an interest in keeping Russia out
Speaker 6: of Europe, keeping Europe from being dominated by one hostile power,
Speaker 6: being Nazi Germany or Kaiser's Germany, or the Soviet Union
Speaker 6: or Russia. And as long as mister Trump keeps that
Speaker 6: in mind, he can run with a policy and do
Speaker 6: whatever he wants.
Speaker 4: Is there a historical precedent for getting something like a
Speaker 4: mining deal or whatever it is metals deal in exchange
Speaker 4: for yeah, we'll protect you now sounds a little like extortion.
Speaker 6: I did not hear the language of exchange for protection.
Speaker 5: What Trump is saying, it's kind of implicit.
Speaker 6: No, No, the United States, Trump says, gave Ukraine assistance.
Speaker 6: There's a huge debate how much. Trump said five hundred billion,
Speaker 6: then he's a three hundred billion. The Europeans did the calculation,
Speaker 6: said it's more like maybe one hundred and twenty billion.
Speaker 5: And the Europeans are saying they gave us much.
Speaker 6: But Trump is trying to recoup that assistance with his
Speaker 6: deal in a thousand years that that particular deal is
Speaker 6: not going to provide the US with this one hundred
Speaker 6: twenty billion. And Trump is not talking about security guarantees.
Speaker 6: The president I'm thinking about is Franklin Delan Ruslot, by
Speaker 6: all accounts, one of the greatest propagists, maybe the greatest
Speaker 6: prategists sitting in the White House since.
Speaker 5: George Washington and Thomas Jefferson. In nineteen forty.
Speaker 6: When Britain needed these naval destroyers, gave them fifty naval
Speaker 6: destroyers from World War One older ships in exchange for
Speaker 6: nine naval basis in the Caribbean and Newfoundland.
Speaker 5: So it was basis for destroyers deal. The destroyers were
Speaker 5: not for free, and this was the beginning that was
Speaker 5: sort of too pleasley.
Speaker 4: Isolationists in Congress, wasn't it. It wasn't.
Speaker 5: Well, we have isolationists in Congress right now.
Speaker 6: Yes, And the MACA electorate America First is the same
Speaker 6: slogan they had back in nineteen forty.
Speaker 2: Ariel, if you're President Putin, how do you think he
Speaker 2: views what's unfolding a in the United States White House?
Speaker 2: With President Trump coming into office and then you know
Speaker 2: the need for peace at some point, how do you
Speaker 2: think where's mister Putin these days?
Speaker 5: It's a great question.
Speaker 6: Puts In always puts up this, you know, gamer face,
Speaker 6: poker face, and says, oh, Russia is winning, We're doing
Speaker 6: so great.
Speaker 5: In reality, there are reports now that.
Speaker 6: They're sending soldiers and crutches back into frontline.
Speaker 5: They're using some donkeys instead of trucks. I don't know
Speaker 5: how true that is. They try to use North Koreans.
Speaker 5: We saw this as not going any place.
Speaker 6: They're reaching out to Nepalese and the Cubans to send
Speaker 6: to be killed in the frontline. They're not gaining a
Speaker 6: lot of Ukrainian territory, although Ukraine population wise is what
Speaker 6: five times smaller than Russia economy wise, maybe seven times
Speaker 6: smaller than Russia. So Ukraine is putting up the heroic fight,
Speaker 6: but the fight is not about Ukraine. The fight is
Speaker 6: about European security and ergo, therefore the balance of power
Speaker 6: in the world, and to keep that balance of power
Speaker 6: to keep hostile powers such as Russia.
Speaker 5: And China away from Europe. This is an American interest,
Speaker 5: but it's also in.
Speaker 6: Our interest that our European allies start putting their big
Speaker 6: boy pants on and paying up. Because the Europeans were
Speaker 6: not sustaining their fair share in native defense. Barack Obama
Speaker 6: and Joe Biden kept telling them that Donald Trump has
Speaker 6: a different spot.
Speaker 4: What kind of shape is NATO in right now?
Speaker 5: NATA is not.
Speaker 6: Having fun because the European and the American military industrial
Speaker 6: production is matching what our needs are, and our needs
Speaker 6: are not only Ukraine but potentially China. Therefore, the defense
Speaker 6: stocks we're doing very well and probably will continue doing well,
Speaker 6: not only because of Ukraine but also because of the Pacific.
Speaker 5: The Europeans need to gether act together.
Speaker 6: NATO needs together their act together, and once they think
Speaker 6: and Trump wants them to think, that we're pulling out Britain,
Speaker 6: Germany and France should find their way to manage NATA
Speaker 6: in Europe and to lead both on the military industrial
Speaker 6: front and on the manpower on personnel front.
Speaker 5: Can they do it? That is the sixty four billion
Speaker 5: dollar quash.
Speaker 2: Arial Cohen, thank you so much for joining us, Arara Coon.
Speaker 2: He's a senior POLM at the Atlanta Council. Joining us
Speaker 2: from Washington, DC.
Speaker 1: Via zoom you're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch
Speaker 1: us live weekdays at ten am Eastern on Apple, Cocklay
Speaker 1: and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on
Speaker 1: demand wherever you get your podcasts, or live on YouTube.
Speaker 2: Like most investors, I think we're all just trying to,
Speaker 2: you know, kind of shift our way through all the
Speaker 2: news that's out there, particularly coming out of Washington, fast
Speaker 2: and furious, and what does it all mean for markets
Speaker 2: when you try to find the stuff that really matters.
Speaker 2: We had some economic data today, we have earnings of
Speaker 2: course finishing up, but we've got a lot of news
Speaker 2: coming out of Washington in other parts of the world.
Speaker 2: Peter Cheer, he's had a macro strategy. He tries to
Speaker 2: do this as well. He's at Academy Securities. Peter what
Speaker 2: do you tell your clients on kind of how to
Speaker 2: navigate through a lot of the noise that's out there
Speaker 2: in the marketplace?
Speaker 8: You know, I think we're one trying to figure out
Speaker 8: what's the theme that's coming out of this administration that's
Speaker 8: still a little bit unclear, and then okay, what can
Speaker 8: we ignore and more and more. I think where we're
Speaker 8: getting stuck at is basically, even if you believe we're
Speaker 8: going to have good outcomes, or you might believe we'll
Speaker 8: have bad outcomes, I don't see how we don't go
Speaker 8: through a bumpy patch first. So that's kind of my
Speaker 8: current view as everything that's going on is going to
Speaker 8: lead to a slowdown in the economy, either because we
Speaker 8: do things to the economy or because of the threats
Speaker 8: of what we might do. It slows the economy down
Speaker 8: as people kind of put themselves on wait and see.
Speaker 8: So I'm now a little bit burish on the economy,
Speaker 8: and I think market's because of that.
Speaker 4: Lisa just gave us the bitcoin quote. It's right now
Speaker 4: what down three tense about It's around eighty four thousand
Speaker 4: per token, which is kind of a precipitous drop from
Speaker 4: the high. What if any risk does crypto pose to
Speaker 4: stocks my stock portfolio.
Speaker 8: I think it has been posing a greater risk than
Speaker 8: it used to. One there's always the wealth effect, so
Speaker 8: I think the wealth effect is real. So if crypto
Speaker 8: continues to go down and all the oar coins which.
Speaker 5: Have been hit particularly hard, you'll have a wealth effect.
Speaker 8: But the other thing is I think really since the
Speaker 8: advent of the ETFs, you used to have people who
Speaker 8: are in crypto and they held it, say in cold storage,
Speaker 8: or maybe they held it at coinbase. Now they might
Speaker 8: have it in their you know, Adellay Schwab wherever you
Speaker 8: do your brokerage account, and it's mixed in. So I
Speaker 8: think when they see their crypto ETFs go down, it
Speaker 8: makes them respond and possibly sell everything. So that's one
Speaker 8: part that's very different from even a year ago. And
Speaker 8: the second part is that mstr itself. One, they become
Speaker 8: even more wet.
Speaker 5: And tied to crypto.
Speaker 8: Right every single day they talk about their victy yield
Speaker 8: whatever that is, how much crypto they have, so they
Speaker 8: become very tied to that. And they got included in
Speaker 8: the Nasdaq one hundred, so they're only about one point
Speaker 8: four percent waiting about the fiftieth stock in the Nasdaq
Speaker 8: one hundred, but it is now a direct tie into
Speaker 8: the nas BACK one hundred, So I think the correlation
Speaker 8: and the linkage is higher. And I don't like what
Speaker 8: I'm seeing in crypto and I think that's going to
Speaker 8: continue to drag on stocks for the next few weeks.
Speaker 2: So, Peter, we've had a little bit of a pullback
Speaker 2: here from the peak, call it four percent here.
Speaker 5: Do we have more to go?
Speaker 2: Do you think, at least in the short term, until
Speaker 2: maybe the market gets a little bit more comfort with
Speaker 2: this administration in some of the economic policies.
Speaker 8: Yeah, I do think we have more to come. You know,
Speaker 8: we might get a little bounced today. We might get
Speaker 8: some good news out of Zelenski. You know, Trump might
Speaker 8: say that delivering the cartel prisoners to the US gets
Speaker 8: Mexico and other stay of execution on teriffs. But I
Speaker 8: think we are going to go back almost across the
Speaker 8: board to pre election levels. You've already seen that hit
Speaker 8: certain cryptocurrencies. I think Ethereum is back to levels from
Speaker 8: before then. It hasn't hit Bitcoin yet. I think that's coming.
Speaker 8: In the stock market. The rustle two thousands back pre
Speaker 8: election levels, We're not there in the S and P
Speaker 8: five hundred or Nasdaq one hundred yet, but I think
Speaker 8: that's where we're headed.
Speaker 4: Unfortunately, let's talk fed two cuts I believe are priced
Speaker 4: in right now, if the markets are correct, Is that enough.
Speaker 5: I'm beginning to think not.
Speaker 8: I would say start of the year, I was thinking
Speaker 8: one to two cuts. I did not think we make
Speaker 8: much progress on the deficit. I'm so not sure we
Speaker 8: will make much progress on the deficit. Having said that,
Speaker 8: I do think the economy is slowing faster. And again,
Speaker 8: you know, we just talked about some of the issues
Speaker 8: with tariffs and how I think we go through a
Speaker 8: bumpy patch. When you look at what dog is trying
Speaker 8: to do. It's going to cut some spending that's going
Speaker 8: to hit immediately. Whether some of it was inefficient, fine,
Speaker 8: maybe that doesn't have an impact.
Speaker 5: But to the extent they trim.
Speaker 8: Anything that was efficiently being allocated, that hits. And then
Speaker 8: the jobs, even if people get laid off are able
Speaker 8: to find jobs, which I'm questioning because I don't think
Speaker 8: the market's that great for jobs. It is still going
Speaker 8: to be this transition period, so I think we're going
Speaker 8: to see economic data hit across the board, and we're
Speaker 8: starting to watch delinquencies rise across the board. I think
Speaker 8: this economy is much more susceptible to pull back than we,
Speaker 8: you know, have talked about for a while. So I
Speaker 8: think we're going to see three to four cuts this year,
Speaker 8: and we're going to start hearing the recession word rear
Speaker 8: it's head again in the next few weeks.
Speaker 5: Interesting.
Speaker 2: Interesting, all right, given that backdrop of Peter fixed income?
Speaker 2: How do you how you playing the bond market these days?
Speaker 6: You know?
Speaker 8: And I was buried in the bond market. I thought
Speaker 8: we could get to four eighty wasn't aggressive, and we've
Speaker 8: been trying to time it.
Speaker 5: I've capitulated on that.
Speaker 8: I think the bond market, you know, four to four
Speaker 8: and a quarter percent on tens, mostly because I really
Speaker 8: capitulated on the state of the economy. I thought we'd
Speaker 8: have a smoother transition with Trump. I think there'd be
Speaker 8: more clarity. It's the lack of clarity that's kind of
Speaker 8: confusing me. So I think yields are going to be okay.
Speaker 8: I think credit spreads start widening. I do like the
Speaker 8: municipal bond market for a lot of our clients on
Speaker 8: the retail side of things when we talk about it,
Speaker 8: but as a whole, I think credits can be okay.
Speaker 8: I am, for the first time in gosh, probably a
Speaker 8: year and a half, a little bit nervous about credit spreads,
Speaker 8: so I've been very calm about credit spreads. I think
Speaker 8: we're going to see some widening if I'm right on
Speaker 8: what's going on in the economy, and further pullbacks in
Speaker 8: stock market.
Speaker 2: Peter, thanks so much for joining us. I really appreciate it.
Speaker 2: Peter Cheer, He's had a macro strategy at Academy Securities.
Speaker 5: Here.
Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast, available on Apple, Spotify,
Speaker 1: and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each
Speaker 1: weekday ten am to noon Eastern on Bloomberg dot com,
Speaker 1: the iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app.
Speaker 1: You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube
Speaker 1: and always on the Bloomberg terminal.