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Speaker 1: Merry Christmas.

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Speaker 2: Guys, How are you welcome into a Christmas Morning episode

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Speaker 2: of the Daily Juice podcast with me Matt Perrault. You

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Speaker 2: guys can follow me across all my socials at Sports

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Speaker 2: Talk Matt and I hope that you have all had

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Speaker 2: a very nice morning. You get presence exchanged, You've had

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Speaker 2: a couple of cups of coffee, maybe a little Bailey's

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Speaker 2: mixed in. You had a good start to your day,

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Speaker 2: and we roll into a monster day of sports. I

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Speaker 2: am going to primarily focus on the NFL. I know

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Speaker 2: the games aren't great, okay, but it is NFL football.

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Speaker 2: It is going to be fun to watch football today.

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Speaker 2: There are three games betting on it is probably the

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Speaker 2: best way to make it entertaining, right If you don't

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Speaker 2: care or the games don't matter, why not bet it

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Speaker 2: and see if we can make some money while we

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Speaker 2: are doing while we are watching all of this. So

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Speaker 2: if you were like me, If you're like me, you

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Speaker 2: don't like going anywhere for Christmas. I don't like moving

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Speaker 2: the norwhere to go anyway, So just curl up on

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Speaker 2: the couch. If it's cold by you, throw a log

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Speaker 2: on the fire. If it's nice by you, open a

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Speaker 2: window and enjoy the day. It's going to be kind

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Speaker 2: of gloomy here in Las Vegas, but you know, it

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Speaker 2: is what it is. It's Christmas. It is my favorite

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Speaker 2: day of the year. I am a gigantic fan of Christmas.

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Speaker 2: But we do have a huge NBA slate, And while

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Speaker 2: I'm not going to bet NBA games, I do have

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Speaker 2: an NBA player prop that I think is a worthwhile

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Speaker 2: to jump in with. So I'm going to jump on

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Speaker 2: it and throw it out there for you guys. I've

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Speaker 2: already bet it, so we're gonna bet that. So we're

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Speaker 2: gonna have five plays going here for the NFL and

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Speaker 2: one prop bet play for the NBA from the prop

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Speaker 2: bet cheat sheet. But before we do anything, let's talk

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Speaker 2: about our friends at hard Rock Bet. If you guys

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Speaker 2: have a downloaded hard rock bet, this is a great

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Speaker 2: time to do it. Maybe Christmas doesn't mean much to

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Speaker 2: you and you want to have some fun here. I mean, hey,

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Speaker 2: you know, friends and family, great time to do it.

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Speaker 2: You can place a five dollars bet today. If it wins,

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Speaker 2: you get one hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets

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Speaker 2: plus whatever the bet pays. Hard Rock bet has new

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Speaker 2: promos daily, so you can check that out here. I'm

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Speaker 2: sure there's gonna be a great one coming up here

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Speaker 2: on Christmas. So go and download the hard Rock Bet

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Speaker 2: app today and make your first deposit today. All right,

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Speaker 2: so I've already told you about the bets we made yesterday.

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Speaker 2: The KC game is now fourteen, so you get a

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Speaker 2: better number than me. Casey is going to be catching

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Speaker 2: fourteen points from the Denver Broncos, at least they are

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Speaker 2: at the time of taping. That is the largest line

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Speaker 2: for the Chiefs to be a dog in the history

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Speaker 2: of Arrowhead Stadium. Now their quarterback. It's interesting he played

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Speaker 2: a little bit last week getting the start here. Chris

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Speaker 2: all A dokin Is I believe how you say it.

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Speaker 2: He is the first quarterback born of African descent to

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Speaker 2: ever play in the NFL. Ola Dokin is twenty eight

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Speaker 2: years old from Tampa. Played at South Florida, then he

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Speaker 2: went to Samford in Alabama. Not Stanford, but Samford in Alabama.

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Speaker 2: Then he went to South Dakota State where he was

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Speaker 2: with the jack Rabbits in twenty twenty one.

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Speaker 1: He was pretty good with the jack Rabbits.

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Speaker 2: He was an All Missouri Valley Conference honorable mention led

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Speaker 2: them to the FCS semi Finals. Steelers drafted him two

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Speaker 2: hundred and forty first overall in the twenty twenty two

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Speaker 2: NFL Draft. He was a seventh round pick. He then

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Speaker 2: got released. He signed with the practice squad for the Chiefs,

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Speaker 2: and he's pretty much been there ever since being cut

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Speaker 2: and being signed practice squad on off, he's kind of

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Speaker 2: been just like this, like journeyman guy who's been in

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Speaker 2: the system. This is the thing worth pointing out out

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Speaker 2: all the Doe Kid's been in the system. He's not

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Speaker 2: a guy they picked up off the street. He's been

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Speaker 2: running these plays. He's not Patrick Maholmes. He couldn't even

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Speaker 2: beat out Garner Minshew for the backup. But can he

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Speaker 2: be effective? Can he just not drive the cart off

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Speaker 2: a cliff? Like? Can he keep the cart on the road.

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Speaker 2: If he can keep the cart on the road, I

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Speaker 2: think we got a pretty good shot at covering here.

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Speaker 2: I mean, this is just a gargantuan number. Denver is great,

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Speaker 2: but Denver on the Road is not Denver at Home fourteen.

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Speaker 2: It's the biggest home dog line of Andy Reid's career.

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Speaker 2: Andy Reid Hall of Fame head coach has never been

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Speaker 2: a fourteen point dog. Chiefs are on a seven game

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Speaker 2: losing streak against the spread. They had a seven game

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Speaker 2: losing streak last week as well, becoming the first team

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Speaker 2: in the Super Bowl era to have a seven plus

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Speaker 2: game ats streak, and then going in back to back

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Speaker 2: seasons last year going to the Super Bowl. I just

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Speaker 2: think they keep this game closer than fourteen points. I

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Speaker 2: just do, Okay, So we're taking that. We're taking the

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Speaker 2: first half under because of what we talked about yesterday,

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Speaker 2: the under nineteen and a half, just because of the

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Speaker 2: fact that the Chiefs do not score a lot of

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Speaker 2: points in the first half. They are very good to

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Speaker 2: the first half under. So we're doing that as well.

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Speaker 2: So that's how we're playing the late game.

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Speaker 1: Now.

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Speaker 2: I got a prop bet in this game as well,

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Speaker 2: to talk about here in a second. But the late

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Speaker 2: game knicks up against a journeyman quarterback that I think

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Speaker 2: can keep the game somewhat close. Let's talk about Washington

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Speaker 2: and Dallas. I don't know what to do with this, okay,

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Speaker 2: but in the fifteen first halfs so far for the

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Speaker 2: Dallas Cowboys, the over is fourteen and one. That is

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Speaker 2: the best first half over under mark of any team

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Speaker 2: in the regular season since two thousand and five. In

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Speaker 2: the twenty nineteen Bucks were fourteen and two to the

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Speaker 2: over in the first half. The Panthers were fourteen and

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Speaker 2: three to the over in the first half. Last year.

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Speaker 2: The Cowboys were thirteen and three to the over in

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Speaker 2: twenty twenty. In twenty thirteen, the Falcons were thirteen and

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Speaker 2: three to the over, and in twenty thirteen the Titans

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Speaker 2: were thirteen and three to the under. Over the last

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Speaker 2: thirty years, this is the best start ats wise in

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Speaker 2: the first over a total wise in the first half

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Speaker 2: in thirty years.

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Speaker 1: Over.

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Speaker 2: It's how we're playing this, Dak Prescott against a third

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Speaker 2: string quarterback for the Washington Commanders.

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Speaker 1: I don't really care. We're gonna see points.

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Speaker 2: Dallas Cowboys defense no good Washington's defense, Eh, Cowboys come

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Speaker 2: off the ball fast. It was twenty four and a

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Speaker 2: half last night when I bet it, But it's twenty

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Speaker 2: five consensus. Let's just play the twenty five because if

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Speaker 2: it lands twenty four, I lose anyway, So there's no

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Speaker 2: push on twenty four and a half. Having it land

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Speaker 2: twenty five would be somewhat surprising. So I think if

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Speaker 2: we get twenty four we lose anyway. So let's give

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Speaker 2: it out at twenty five. We're going Cowboys Commanders first

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Speaker 2: half over twenty five points for one point one units.

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Speaker 2: I think this is a great way of playing this game,

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Speaker 2: a really fun way of playing this game. Dallas Washington

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Speaker 2: over twenty five points in the first half for one

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Speaker 2: point one units. We go to the second game of

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Speaker 2: the day, and that's going to be a very interesting

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Speaker 2: matchup between the Lions and the Vikings. Who's playing quarterback

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Speaker 2: for the Vikings? Right, who's playing quarterbacks for the Vikings? Well,

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Speaker 2: here's the thing, Okay, I think it doesn't matter. And

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Speaker 2: here's why. I think the defense for the Vikings is

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Speaker 2: going to create a problem for Jared Goff, and I

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Speaker 2: think this offense is somewhat broken. Jared Goff in a

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Speaker 2: Dome on the road with Dan Campbell. They are ten

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Speaker 2: and two ats since the beginning of last year. In

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Speaker 2: this spot on the road in a dome, Lions are

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Speaker 2: five and zero. Like all of the conversations, all of

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Speaker 2: the issues, right, JJ McCarthy hasn't been great, Carson Wentz

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Speaker 2: hasn't been great.

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Speaker 1: Max Brosmer hasn't been.

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Speaker 2: Great, but I do think there's an opportunity here for

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Speaker 2: this defense at home to keep the game close. And

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Speaker 2: the Lions lost to the Vikings in their last meeting

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Speaker 2: back in Week nine. The Lions when they lose their

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Speaker 2: first matchup in the return game, they are thirty three

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Speaker 2: and fourteen ats five and two this season in seven

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Speaker 2: and three overall when they're facing an NFC North opponent.

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Speaker 2: All these numbers, this all points to betting the Lions.

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Speaker 2: Betting the Lions. But I think that hook. That hook

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Speaker 2: tells me something. That hook is interesting to me. Makes

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Speaker 2: it a two score game on the road with an

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Speaker 2: offense that has has not looked great recently, a quarterback

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Speaker 2: who has not played recently, and the defense has stunk.

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Speaker 2: The defense is allowing twenty seven or more points five

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Speaker 2: straight games. This is Dan Campbell supposed to be this

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Speaker 2: smash mouth where they're going to play defense. We're gonna

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Speaker 2: hurt people, right, We're gonna bite kneecaps. That has not happened,

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Speaker 2: That has not happened here at all. And I'm gonna

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Speaker 2: roll with a bit of a trend here. Okay, And

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Speaker 2: this isn't always the case. But historically teams that quote

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Speaker 2: need to win have not done well. So since nineteen ninety,

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Speaker 2: teams eliminated playing teams that need to win over the

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Speaker 2: final two weeks of the regular season. The Action Network

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Speaker 2: has found this to be one oh eight sixty nine

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Speaker 2: to four against the spread. That's a sixty one percent

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Speaker 2: clip for the eliminated team for Week seventeen, that is

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Speaker 2: Vikings Detroit. Additionally, teams with a winning percentage between forty

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Speaker 2: and sixty percent in week sixteen or later haven't done well.

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Speaker 2: Haven't done well against a spread twenty seven percent with that.

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Speaker 2: But I think if you're looking at how this game

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Speaker 2: is going to fit out, you know, fading teams that

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Speaker 2: quote need to win has worked out pretty well for

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Speaker 2: us here on this. I think we're gonna jump in

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Speaker 2: on this. So I'm taking the Vikings plus seven and

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Speaker 2: a half on the Vikings here for one point one unit,

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Speaker 2: So Dallas Washington over twenty five points first half total

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Speaker 2: Vikings plus seven and a half, Denver Casey undering the

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Speaker 2: first half under nineteen and a half points, Casey plus

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Speaker 2: thirteen and a half points. Those are the plays for

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Speaker 2: the games prop bets now. RJ. Harvey using the prop

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Speaker 2: bet cheat sheet to go and taking a look at

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Speaker 2: what we think prop bet cheat sheet is in on RJ.

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Speaker 1: Harvey to go.

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Speaker 2: Over fifteen and a half receiving yards here in this game.

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Speaker 2: And that would make sense, right because if you're looking

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Speaker 2: at Bonis on the road, you got a dink and

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Speaker 2: dunk type situation and you have a pass rush for

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Speaker 2: the for the Chiefs, you'd expect Steve Spagnolo to go

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Speaker 2: after Bonix, to not sit around and really go after Bonix. Look,

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Speaker 2: seventy to seven percent of the tickets are on Denver

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Speaker 2: to win this game, Okay. Detroit it's seventy four percent,

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Speaker 2: Dallas is seventy three percent. Okay, I think we may

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Speaker 2: be in for tighter football games that when the public

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Speaker 2: is anticipating and historically so far this season, I mean

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Speaker 2: you look at the number of tickets. It's been a

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Speaker 2: very tough year here for the public.

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Speaker 1: Right now.

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Speaker 2: The public is hitting just at forty percent when a

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Speaker 2: team is getting sixty percent of the tickets are more

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Speaker 2: at kickoff, It's a forty percent mark ats wise last

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Speaker 2: year when last week rather went pretty well, when seven

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Speaker 2: and two last week, So maybe it's turning a little bit,

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Speaker 2: but I still think it's a good time to take

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Speaker 2: the dogs here in these situations, and I do think

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Speaker 2: they're going to be closer, and that that means the

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Speaker 2: Chiefs defense causes problems. And when you're causing that Broncos

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Speaker 2: offense problems, you're going to look for some screen passes,

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Speaker 2: some swing passes, some wheel routes to RJ.

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Speaker 1: Harvey. Prop bet cheat sheet has this as a five

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Speaker 1: star play. We're going with RJ.

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Speaker 2: Harvey over fifteen and a half receiving yards today in

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Speaker 2: the game against the.

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Speaker 1: In the late game against the Chiefs.

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Speaker 2: Now there's one basketball play and didn't I was really

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Speaker 2: surprised at this. Donovan Mitchell points, rebounds and assists is

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Speaker 2: set at forty and a half forty and a half.

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Speaker 2: The projection is way under that. For the prop bet

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Speaker 2: cheat sheet, Christmas is difficult. I'm not going to see

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Speaker 2: there and tell you that Christmas is not. Christmas is

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Speaker 2: really hard. There are all sorts of trends that make

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Speaker 2: it difficult because star players tend to get up on Christmas.

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Speaker 2: This is when the NBA really wants to get after

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Speaker 2: it and showcase everything. But this is a seventy five

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Speaker 2: percent cover probability, a thirty nine percent expected value play,

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Speaker 2: five star play, and a bet that has not hit.

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Speaker 2: In the last four games for Donovan Mitchell, he's been

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Speaker 2: nursing a bit of an injury. He is day to day,

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Speaker 2: but he's expected to play here up against the New

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Speaker 2: York Knicks. And look, if you're just projection wise and

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Speaker 2: seeing what he has done. The number his last game

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Speaker 2: against New Orleans, it was thirty nine and a half.

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Speaker 2: He ended up with thirty five points, rebounds and assists.

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Speaker 2: Against Charlotte it was forty and a half. He ended

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Speaker 2: up with thirty nine. Against Chicago on the road it

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Speaker 2: was forty and a half, he ended up with thirty eight,

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Speaker 2: and with Charlotte it was thirty nine and a half

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Speaker 2: he end up with twenty six. So I mean, he's

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Speaker 2: going right up against him, but he's not going over

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Speaker 2: this number. The last time it went over it was

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Speaker 2: back on the twelfth of December up against Washington, points, rebounds,

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Speaker 2: and assists. He could score thirty points and grab ten

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Speaker 2: rebounds and then not make it due due to having

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Speaker 2: any assists, or it could just look at him with

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Speaker 2: no rebounds and you know, three or four assists a

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Speaker 2: new minds up thirty points as well, so it's a

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Speaker 2: big number. Forty and a half is a big number.

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Speaker 2: He's not hit that the last two times it's been

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Speaker 2: set at forty. It was forty against Washington back on

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Speaker 2: the twelve, where he went up with fifty six, so

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Speaker 2: he went way over. But the two games for that

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Speaker 2: it was forty and a half and he hadn't hit

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Speaker 2: it either. So the last five times this number has

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Speaker 2: been set at forty and a half, it's four and

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Speaker 2: one to the under. I like those odds. We'll go

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Speaker 2: with Donovan Mitchell to the under. Points rebounds and assists here,

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Speaker 2: So prop bets for today r J. Harvey over seventeen

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Speaker 2: and a half receiving yards in the game against the

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Speaker 2: Chiefs and Donovan Mitchell under forty and a half points,

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Speaker 2: rebounds and assists in their game against the Knicks come

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Speaker 2: up here. For the NBA, it's a big basketball. This

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Speaker 2: used to be all NBA. The NFL just got swooped in,

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Speaker 2: took over Christmas on the way out, just to remind her, Okay, look,

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Speaker 2: if you're having trouble today, she just understand that the

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Speaker 2: holidays are difficult for a lot of people.

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Speaker 1: It's a wonderful day, it's a wonderful time.

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Speaker 2: But I know there are some of you out there

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Speaker 2: that are really hurting today for a variety of reasons.

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Speaker 1: Right.

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Speaker 2: You know, I've gone through a divorce, I've gone through

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Speaker 2: changes in my personal life. You know, it's a difficult

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Speaker 2: day in some because maybe the life you thought you

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Speaker 2: had is not going to be the same, right, not

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Speaker 2: the way it wants.

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Speaker 1: It's okay, it's all right.

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Speaker 2: You're listening to a gambling podcast on Christmas Day, right,

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Speaker 2: nothing wrong with it. Just you know, we may have

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Speaker 2: different priorities now, right, maybe this day means nothing to you.

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Speaker 2: I have friends of mine, my family, I have Jewish

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Speaker 2: people and my family who this day doesn't mean much. Right,

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Speaker 2: It's a big the whole world gets up for Christmas,

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Speaker 2: and then if you don't celebrate it, it's kind of like,

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Speaker 2: oh huh, I don't really celebrate this day. So it

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Speaker 2: can be sort of a little awkward as well. And

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Speaker 2: just understand that it's okay to feel those things today, right,

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Speaker 2: It's completely okay, And to enjoy the day and go

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Speaker 2: have Chinese food and hang out and watch some football

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Speaker 2: and just treat it like a day off right, and

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Speaker 2: don't feel bad. If you are somebody and we talked

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Speaker 2: about problem gambling a lot. But if you are somebody

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Speaker 2: who has a difficult time with get with betting. Don't

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Speaker 2: bet today. Excuse me, don't bet today. Don't bet today.

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Speaker 2: You don't need to bet today, right, I mean it's

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Speaker 2: you may end up feeling worse. Even if you win,

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Speaker 2: you might end up feeling worse. So if you can

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Speaker 2: avoid it, if you're having issues, if you're having a

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Speaker 2: tough time, go to a meeting, call the number, ask

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Speaker 2: for help. It's a good day to do so. Here

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Speaker 2: on Christmas. So in closing, Merry Christmas to everybody, Happy

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Speaker 2: New Year. We'll be here. Obviously we're not going anywhere.

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Speaker 2: I will take some time off after the first of

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Speaker 2: the year. There'll be a couple of days where the

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Speaker 2: juice will be dark. But we're rolling here Christmas right

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Speaker 2: to New Year's Eve, right to New Year's Day. You'll

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Speaker 2: get it all the way up to January first, and

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Speaker 2: then on the second, third, and fourth, right, no, second

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Speaker 2: and third, you'll get you won't have a juice those

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Speaker 2: two nights. You won't have the daily juice. But I

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Speaker 2: do go to the east coast and so the Juice

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Speaker 2: will turn into a morning show. Remember that we'll drop

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Speaker 2: in the morning, coming up after Saturday morning. We'll be

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Speaker 2: up coming at you Saturday Sunday morning for the NFL

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Speaker 2: Week seventeen and a big slate.

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Speaker 1: Of games coming at you on Sunday. Looking forward to that.

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Speaker 2: I will host the live stream from New Hampshire, So

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Speaker 2: Mina's Matt Parolt. You guys can follow me across all

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Speaker 2: my socials at Sports Talk Matt.

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Speaker 1: Once again.

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Speaker 2: On the way out, We're going Washington Dallas over twenty

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Speaker 2: five in the first half, Vikings plus seven and a half,

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Speaker 2: Denver Casey under nineteen and a half in the first half,

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Speaker 2: Casey plus thirteen and a half. RJ. Harvey over seventeen

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Speaker 2: and a half, receiving yards in, Donovan Mitchell of the

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Speaker 2: Calves under forty and a half points, rebounds and assists.

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Speaker 2: Following me acause all my socials at Sports Talk Matt

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Speaker 2: every morning wherever you guys get your podcasts, it is

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Speaker 2: the Daily Juice. Dom San San Santo