WEBVTT - Disney Cuts Lay Bare That 'Normal' Isn't On The Horizon 0:00:01.360 --> 0:00:04.120 Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney, along 0:00:04.120 --> 0:00:06.200 with my co host of Bonnie Quinn. Every business day 0:00:06.240 --> 0:00:10.360 we bring you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, 0:00:10.400 --> 0:00:13.600 along with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets 0:00:13.600 --> 0:00:16.920 Podcast on Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts, 0:00:17.000 --> 0:00:22.000 and on Bloomberg dot com. It is time for Bloomberg Opinion. 0:00:22.280 --> 0:00:26.079 You're joined by Tara la Chapelle Entertainment, Telecommunications and deal 0:00:26.120 --> 0:00:29.240 columns for Bloomberg Opinion. Uh and it really just a 0:00:29.280 --> 0:00:31.560 fascinating story coming out of the Walt Disney Company, once 0:00:31.600 --> 0:00:35.519 again highlighting the really difficult challenges out there for the 0:00:35.560 --> 0:00:38.720 American worker. Walt Disney announcing that it's gonna slash twenty 0:00:38.840 --> 0:00:43.159 eight thousand workers in its slumping US parks and resorts business. 0:00:43.200 --> 0:00:45.199 Terror Thanks so much for joining us here. Boy, the 0:00:45.240 --> 0:00:48.520 pain is really being felt at the Walt Disney Company, 0:00:48.560 --> 0:00:51.360 among others. Yeah. I think you know a lot of 0:00:51.400 --> 0:00:54.280 companies had been holding out hope these last few months 0:00:54.280 --> 0:00:56.120 that you just had to get through these for a 0:00:56.200 --> 0:00:58.240 few months and that they could keep their workers and 0:00:58.280 --> 0:01:00.760 that you know, you could kind of see normal on 0:01:00.800 --> 0:01:03.480 the Horizon, and I think this is Disney saying in 0:01:03.480 --> 0:01:05.520 a big way that we're really not there and we're 0:01:05.560 --> 0:01:06.960 not going to be there for a while, and they 0:01:07.000 --> 0:01:08.400 needed to do this, and I think it's going to 0:01:08.480 --> 0:01:11.399 be the start of other companies badly doing this as well. 0:01:11.720 --> 0:01:14.720 You know, their theme park in California has been closed, 0:01:14.720 --> 0:01:17.000 and they've kind of Disney has kind of pointed fingers 0:01:17.040 --> 0:01:20.399 at California's state government for that. But the reality is 0:01:20.440 --> 0:01:23.520 that even in Florida where they are opening, they're they're open, 0:01:23.560 --> 0:01:26.200 they're not seeing a lot of travelers come in because 0:01:26.240 --> 0:01:29.200 people are still really weary about doing this. Not to mention, 0:01:29.200 --> 0:01:30.840 we're in a recession, so you know, I don't know 0:01:30.880 --> 0:01:33.560 how many families are willing to spend a hundred bucks 0:01:33.640 --> 0:01:36.880 or more a day on each person in their household 0:01:36.920 --> 0:01:39.479 to go to Disney World right now. Yeah, the head 0:01:39.520 --> 0:01:42.520 of the theme park send out a statement in which 0:01:42.520 --> 0:01:44.560 he said that many of these were part time already 0:01:44.640 --> 0:01:46.320 or contract workers. In other words, they were in the 0:01:46.440 --> 0:01:48.520 union employees, and they're going to trying them to some 0:01:48.600 --> 0:01:51.280 kind of an agreement with the union employees. But nevertheless, 0:01:51.680 --> 0:01:54.800 a phenomenal amount of workers that we're getting some kind 0:01:54.800 --> 0:01:58.160 of paycheck from Disney, right. You know, they had furloughed 0:01:58.160 --> 0:02:00.640 about a hundred thousand people and in kept their task 0:02:00.760 --> 0:02:05.040 members um on their healthcare uh since April when they 0:02:05.040 --> 0:02:07.080 had to do this, And I think now they're starting 0:02:07.120 --> 0:02:09.440 to realize, you know, the same parts really aren't going 0:02:09.480 --> 0:02:11.720 to come back for a while because they simply can't. 0:02:11.960 --> 0:02:14.680 And it's similar for the movie theater industry, which Disney 0:02:14.720 --> 0:02:17.600 is also typed to, where you have them reopening around 0:02:17.600 --> 0:02:20.560 the country, but you're not seeing people come back in 0:02:20.600 --> 0:02:22.920 big numbers for a lot of different reasons. And it 0:02:23.000 --> 0:02:25.720 just shows that to get the economy back on track, 0:02:25.800 --> 0:02:28.480 we need to fix the virus first. It's just there's 0:02:28.520 --> 0:02:30.440 no way to get around it. And I think this 0:02:30.520 --> 0:02:33.320 is what these companies are starting to realize, and unfortunately 0:02:33.320 --> 0:02:34.640 it's going to cause a lot of pain for a 0:02:34.639 --> 0:02:37.880 lot of workers. Yeah, it's Terry. You know you've covered 0:02:38.200 --> 0:02:40.720 Disney for a long time. You know that the big 0:02:40.720 --> 0:02:44.600 moves they've made uh to pivot towards their streaming business. 0:02:44.600 --> 0:02:47.680 But the reality is most of their operating income today 0:02:47.760 --> 0:02:51.560 comes from their theme parks and their cable networks and 0:02:51.600 --> 0:02:55.120 the filmed entertainment studio and all those businesses are really 0:02:55.160 --> 0:02:59.880 being impacted by the economic infects effects of this pandemic. 0:03:01.240 --> 0:03:03.480 Is what's the thinking do you think within Disney about 0:03:03.520 --> 0:03:05.560 kind of their strategy for dealing with this pandemic. Is 0:03:05.560 --> 0:03:07.679 it just to batten down the hatches and wait to 0:03:07.720 --> 0:03:10.680 get together side. I mean, I guess so, but it's 0:03:10.680 --> 0:03:13.720 been a little bit confusing. I mean, they installed a 0:03:13.760 --> 0:03:16.400 new CEO in February, which is Bob Shapeck, who came 0:03:16.440 --> 0:03:18.360 from the theme park side, which I guess is a 0:03:18.360 --> 0:03:20.640 good thing right now in this moment because he really 0:03:20.639 --> 0:03:24.480 knows that business. However, what is Disney's future, And if 0:03:24.480 --> 0:03:27.080 their future is streaming, I mean, good luck to them. 0:03:27.120 --> 0:03:30.600 That's going to be a really difficult challenge going up 0:03:30.639 --> 0:03:33.240 against Netflix and trying to make money in this industry. 0:03:33.520 --> 0:03:35.600 And like you said, you know, the streaming business is 0:03:35.600 --> 0:03:37.760 doing well and that it's growing and a lot of 0:03:37.760 --> 0:03:40.440 people of interest in Disney Plus and the other products 0:03:40.440 --> 0:03:43.480 that they're coming out with. However, it doesn't generate the 0:03:43.560 --> 0:03:45.640 kind of money and won't for a long time that 0:03:45.760 --> 0:03:48.560 these theme parks, the cable networks do, and all these 0:03:48.600 --> 0:03:52.360 different businesses. So there's a lot of question marks around Disney. 0:03:52.360 --> 0:03:55.120 It just makes me wonder, you know, what does Disney 0:03:55.200 --> 0:03:57.400 look like in a new normal? What is the company? 0:03:57.440 --> 0:04:02.280 Is it a theme park and movie and uh cable 0:04:02.360 --> 0:04:05.960 network giant or is it a streaming company? And and 0:04:06.240 --> 0:04:09.240 how do they kind of what does that look like? 0:04:09.280 --> 0:04:12.240 I think there's just a lot of questions about, um, 0:04:12.360 --> 0:04:14.280 how they're kind of going to get through this, and 0:04:14.680 --> 0:04:17.280 what the thinking is at the top, since they do 0:04:17.360 --> 0:04:20.560 have a new CEO who really didn't come from the 0:04:20.720 --> 0:04:23.320 entertainment side of this company. Yeah, and he actually went 0:04:23.360 --> 0:04:27.200 to half salary for the rest of the pandemic. Correct me, 0:04:27.320 --> 0:04:29.720 both of you if I'm wrong, because goodness knows, nobody 0:04:29.760 --> 0:04:32.720 knows Disney better than YouTube. But wasn't there a time 0:04:32.760 --> 0:04:35.400 when Disney was certainly not counting on its theme parks 0:04:35.480 --> 0:04:38.880 for you know, its revenue stream or for its operating income. 0:04:39.560 --> 0:04:41.640 You know, it was almost a surprise, was it not 0:04:41.720 --> 0:04:44.640 that the theme parks were keeping other parts of Disney 0:04:45.040 --> 0:04:47.960 aflows if you like, am I right? Pole and Tara, Well, 0:04:48.000 --> 0:04:50.120 it's actually, you know, the theme park business has been 0:04:50.200 --> 0:04:52.480 kind of terror writes about this. It's kind of been 0:04:52.720 --> 0:04:55.159 a sleepy part of the business relative to the you know, 0:04:55.240 --> 0:04:57.760 the movies and all the other cool stuff, the espns 0:04:57.760 --> 0:05:00.359 of the world. But it's always been a very deady 0:05:00.600 --> 0:05:03.839 generator of profit and profit growth. And it's such a 0:05:03.880 --> 0:05:06.440 good business that, as Tera knows. You know, they invested 0:05:06.440 --> 0:05:08.840 over five billion dollars in their theme parks business in 0:05:08.960 --> 0:05:11.839 Shanghai to open a theme park business in Shanghai. So 0:05:11.839 --> 0:05:14.200 it's a business they've always liked. They've always been a 0:05:14.279 --> 0:05:18.080 leader in it. What was interesting when Comcasts bought NBC Universal, 0:05:18.440 --> 0:05:21.159 they didn't even really think about the Universal theme park business, 0:05:21.160 --> 0:05:23.719 but that turned out to be a great business for 0:05:23.960 --> 0:05:26.520 Comcasts as part of that acquisition. Yeah, so I suppose 0:05:26.560 --> 0:05:28.560 that's what I mean in the sense that, you know, 0:05:28.600 --> 0:05:31.880 it's almost an unexpected gift. So therefore, can it be 0:05:32.080 --> 0:05:35.240 made more boutique and still work as that unexpected gift? 0:05:35.279 --> 0:05:37.560 I mean, do you need two hundred thousand cast members? 0:05:37.600 --> 0:05:39.400 Do you you know, do you need to change up 0:05:39.400 --> 0:05:41.919 your rides every year? Can you just have it maybe 0:05:41.960 --> 0:05:44.960 a little less exciting, a little less full, and still 0:05:45.000 --> 0:05:49.040 be generating enough income that's possible. I mean, I think 0:05:49.040 --> 0:05:51.400 a lot of companies are having to make that calculation. Now, 0:05:51.440 --> 0:05:54.160 do you operate at a smaller capacity. We saw the 0:05:54.240 --> 0:05:57.520 retail industry goes through this in recent years, even before COVID, 0:05:57.800 --> 0:06:01.159 you know, becoming more boutique. I think Disney can do that. 0:06:01.200 --> 0:06:04.159 There's just so much fascination and and love around the 0:06:04.200 --> 0:06:06.360 Disney brand. I mean, people are obsessed with it all 0:06:06.400 --> 0:06:08.960 around the world. But how do you get all these 0:06:08.960 --> 0:06:11.120 people to come back and travel again? You know, maybe 0:06:11.120 --> 0:06:13.800 it doesn't mean operating at a at a lower capacity, 0:06:13.800 --> 0:06:15.960 being smaller, but then how do you charge as much 0:06:16.000 --> 0:06:18.280 as you're charging for these things? So I think there's 0:06:18.279 --> 0:06:19.840 just there's a lot that's going to change, and it's 0:06:19.880 --> 0:06:22.240 going to take a lot of trial and error and 0:06:22.279 --> 0:06:24.280 trying to figure out where do we land at the 0:06:24.400 --> 0:06:26.200 end of this pandemic, What does it mean and do 0:06:26.240 --> 0:06:29.280 we go back to quote normal or is normal no 0:06:29.360 --> 0:06:32.000 longer part of our vocab here? And what does it 0:06:32.040 --> 0:06:34.320 mean for these giant companies that have operated this way 0:06:34.320 --> 0:06:36.320 for so long? They're really gonna have to rethink things. 0:06:37.760 --> 0:06:42.000 Um Tera, what do we know about Shanghai? Has that reopened? 0:06:42.000 --> 0:06:45.840 If so, how is you know traffic there? Yeah, they 0:06:45.880 --> 0:06:47.800 reopened that. I think they actually had quite a bit 0:06:47.800 --> 0:06:50.400 of demands. I think it was maybe the beginning of 0:06:50.400 --> 0:06:54.000 the summer, um the local government there had them reduced 0:06:54.000 --> 0:06:56.920 capacity again because virus cases were spiking, but I think 0:06:56.960 --> 0:06:58.920 they've been opened. I mean, I think the big problem 0:06:58.920 --> 0:07:02.000 area has been California for Disney, and they really wanted 0:07:02.000 --> 0:07:04.160 to get that park back open, especially since I think 0:07:04.160 --> 0:07:07.200 the California park Disneyland gets a lot of local visitors 0:07:07.200 --> 0:07:09.560 as opposed to Orlando, which relies on a lot of 0:07:09.600 --> 0:07:12.000 people getting out a plane and coming. So I think 0:07:12.000 --> 0:07:14.280 they really wanted to get that one open, and obviously 0:07:14.280 --> 0:07:17.680 that's not happening anytime soon. Tara's thanks so much for 0:07:17.760 --> 0:07:19.920 joining us with all of your info there on Disney 0:07:19.920 --> 0:07:23.400 and of course, you know, entertainment companies in general. Tara 0:07:23.560 --> 0:07:27.440 is Bloomberg Opinion columnists covers all of that media, entertainment 0:07:27.480 --> 0:07:30.000 and so on. And Disney today down four tenths one 0:07:30.320 --> 0:07:32.320 over the last year. It's down four point two percent, 0:07:32.440 --> 0:07:35.240 so definitely not one of those docks that benefited. Pole 0:07:35.280 --> 0:07:38.240 has said that without looking at the chart. Yeah, exactly right. 0:07:38.240 --> 0:07:40.840 They've really been hit hard and again their theme park 0:07:40.880 --> 0:07:44.040 business has just effectively been shut down. Um so and 0:07:44.040 --> 0:07:46.760 and as Terror you know points out, you know, they 0:07:46.840 --> 0:07:50.160 really full of Florida parks. They need global travel to 0:07:50.200 --> 0:07:52.480 pick up because a lot of their customers come from 0:07:52.520 --> 0:07:54.960 outside of Florida, outside the United States, and they need 0:07:55.000 --> 0:07:57.160 global travel to pick up. And that doesn't seem like 0:07:57.240 --> 0:08:00.360 it's something on the near term horizon. Yeah, it's such 0:08:00.400 --> 0:08:03.920 a such a difficult time for everybody involved. And of 0:08:03.960 --> 0:08:06.360 course the story the other day that the Disneyland resort 0:08:06.400 --> 0:08:08.640 in a Hong Kong lost an option to expand its 0:08:08.760 --> 0:08:16.640 side and just just headlines negative coming constantly for Disney. 0:08:18.360 --> 0:08:22.240 It is time to talk bonds, bond market, fixed income, volatility, 0:08:22.360 --> 0:08:24.559 and all the rest of it. We have somebody who 0:08:24.760 --> 0:08:27.360 is glued to this day in day out. Bryan Whalen 0:08:27.520 --> 0:08:30.120 is general portfolio manager for fixed income at tc W, 0:08:30.120 --> 0:08:32.280 which has of course two D twelve billion dollars in 0:08:32.360 --> 0:08:35.640 asss under management. Brian, thanks for joining. When you come 0:08:35.679 --> 0:08:38.679 into the office the day after you know, a debate 0:08:38.880 --> 0:08:43.360 that was so content to contentious and so difficult, where 0:08:43.360 --> 0:08:45.400 do you go to look first to see if there's 0:08:45.440 --> 0:08:49.560 a reaction in the marketplace. Well, well, first, thanks for 0:08:49.600 --> 0:08:52.600 having me. Um. You know clearly you know we're bond managers, 0:08:52.600 --> 0:08:53.920 so we look at the yield curve will look at 0:08:53.920 --> 0:08:57.360 the moves across the board, and honestly, this morning it's 0:08:57.400 --> 0:08:59.439 just more of the same. I think that debate kind 0:08:59.440 --> 0:09:02.400 of with your opinion on it, you know, good bad. 0:09:02.679 --> 0:09:05.160 I don't think it really um changed anyone's you know, 0:09:05.520 --> 0:09:08.280 UM expectations for the election. And you know we're seeing 0:09:08.280 --> 0:09:10.600 that in treasury yields, which are still confined to a 0:09:10.679 --> 0:09:14.480 to a very narrow range. So, Brian, where do you 0:09:14.480 --> 0:09:17.240 guys at TCU, with all the assets under management you 0:09:17.240 --> 0:09:21.120 guys have, where do you see opportunities given where yields 0:09:21.120 --> 0:09:26.240 are here? Yeah, great question. I mean, you know, look, um, 0:09:26.280 --> 0:09:28.560 I think you know, as a bond manager, you have 0:09:28.600 --> 0:09:30.640 to you have to recognize, you know, the power of 0:09:30.640 --> 0:09:33.760 the FED and the influence on asset prices. And you know, 0:09:33.840 --> 0:09:36.880 we have an opinion that the economy is you know, 0:09:37.480 --> 0:09:39.840 actually you know, much worse than than it may appear, 0:09:40.200 --> 0:09:42.760 and it feels and that has to do with what 0:09:42.880 --> 0:09:46.440 we've seen in terms of the fiscal uh stimulus UH, 0:09:46.640 --> 0:09:51.000 you know, and monetary um, you know, aggressive monetary policy 0:09:51.040 --> 0:09:53.240 from the Fed. UH. And so you know, when we're 0:09:53.240 --> 0:09:56.000 thinking about the marketplace today, you know, areas where the 0:09:56.000 --> 0:09:58.880 FED is directly involved. I think you have to embrace that. 0:09:58.960 --> 0:10:01.280 I have to kind of look at high quality assets 0:10:01.320 --> 0:10:03.959 and you have to realize that, you know, the prices 0:10:03.960 --> 0:10:06.240 are the spread that we saw happening in in March, 0:10:07.200 --> 0:10:08.960 most like, you're not going to see that again in 0:10:09.040 --> 0:10:10.920 high quality assets because because the FED is not gonna 0:10:10.960 --> 0:10:13.160 let it happen. And so you have to embrace that. 0:10:13.520 --> 0:10:15.200 And I think, you know, maybe take maybe a little 0:10:15.200 --> 0:10:18.960 bit more risk there then you might otherwise would take 0:10:19.160 --> 0:10:21.280 in an environment like this. And then on the other hand, 0:10:21.760 --> 0:10:23.960 you have to be patient giving the amount of you know, 0:10:24.040 --> 0:10:27.319 just outright trauma the economy has incurred, uh, any amount 0:10:27.360 --> 0:10:29.520 of demand you know, destruction and the amount of really 0:10:29.559 --> 0:10:31.800 creative destruction going on. You when we get into two 0:10:31.800 --> 0:10:35.200 thousand twenty one, you need to be patient, uh in 0:10:35.280 --> 0:10:37.960 parts of the capital structure and parts of the market, 0:10:38.440 --> 0:10:41.680 um that are vulnerable to all the damage and and 0:10:41.720 --> 0:10:45.200 the changes going on. How far down the credit stock 0:10:45.240 --> 0:10:48.960 are you going by in uh, not very far to 0:10:48.960 --> 0:10:50.600 be honest with you, you know, the errors we like 0:10:50.679 --> 0:10:54.160 the most, you know, Uh, Agency mortgages is one area. 0:10:54.640 --> 0:10:56.400 UM that's you know, the FED has bought you know, 0:10:56.480 --> 0:10:59.839 in this QUEWI period over a trillion dollars of A 0:11:00.040 --> 0:11:04.000 and C mbs, and they've kept spread volatility incredibly muted. 0:11:04.240 --> 0:11:08.000 High quality investment grade corporate bonds. UM. You know, we 0:11:08.120 --> 0:11:11.760 still like them. Obviously the Feds involved, maybe not to 0:11:11.840 --> 0:11:14.640 the same extent, uh, and that they've only bought a 0:11:14.679 --> 0:11:17.400 you know, a very little amount, but just the presence 0:11:17.440 --> 0:11:19.720 of the FED has given that market a sense of 0:11:19.720 --> 0:11:22.040 a kind of a an absolute kind of cap on 0:11:22.120 --> 0:11:25.559 spreads and that again the FED won't lead volatility pick 0:11:25.640 --> 0:11:28.560 up too much there. But you know, outside of the UM, 0:11:28.960 --> 0:11:31.280 let's say they called the you know, the warm embrace 0:11:31.360 --> 0:11:33.760 of the FED, where they have kind of ring fence 0:11:33.800 --> 0:11:37.200 asset classes like that. You have areas like leverage finance, 0:11:37.240 --> 0:11:39.400 which includes high old bonds and leverage loans. You have 0:11:39.480 --> 0:11:42.240 areas like UM you know, down the capital structure, as 0:11:42.280 --> 0:11:44.720 you said, and in the commercial mortgage back market where 0:11:44.800 --> 0:11:46.679 you know, there's a lot of damage, uh and it's 0:11:46.720 --> 0:11:48.439 going to take a long time to play out. So 0:11:48.600 --> 0:11:50.520 you know, as I mentioned before, you know, we think 0:11:50.600 --> 0:11:53.000 the best way to kind of spend your dollars and 0:11:53.000 --> 0:11:55.280 fixed income now is in the high quality parts of 0:11:55.320 --> 0:11:58.360 the market and be patient and wait for better opportunities 0:11:58.480 --> 0:12:01.240 or maybe I should say better price is um down 0:12:01.280 --> 0:12:04.480 capital structure. Brian talked us a little bit about credit 0:12:04.559 --> 0:12:08.400 quality as you look across your portfolio here, Um, we're 0:12:08.440 --> 0:12:11.400 six seven months into this pandemic. I suspect you're starting 0:12:11.400 --> 0:12:15.120 to see some some real cracks. Yeah, I mean this 0:12:15.200 --> 0:12:18.200 is a you know, as as a you know, like 0:12:18.240 --> 0:12:20.520 you're seeing in the real economy, seeing in the bond market, 0:12:20.640 --> 0:12:22.240 meaning you know, we're kind of we're moving into a 0:12:22.240 --> 0:12:24.800 world of the halves and the have nots. Uh. And 0:12:24.920 --> 0:12:27.559 even though you know, if you look at big kind 0:12:27.559 --> 0:12:30.959 of major kind of barometers for let's take corporate bonds, 0:12:31.000 --> 0:12:33.720 like the investment Grade UH index and the spread of 0:12:33.720 --> 0:12:35.839 that index, you know, it's around a hundred twenty five 0:12:36.120 --> 0:12:39.480 hundred thirty basis points, which historically is about average. The 0:12:39.520 --> 0:12:41.040 same thing in the high old bond market, you know, 0:12:41.080 --> 0:12:44.400 plus minus five hundred basis points. But um, there is 0:12:44.440 --> 0:12:48.000 more dispersion under the surface, and that is reflective of 0:12:48.080 --> 0:12:50.200 you know, what's going on in the broader economy and 0:12:50.240 --> 0:12:52.599 that you know this this will take a while to 0:12:52.640 --> 0:12:55.320 play out, uh, and we're going to see lots of winners, 0:12:55.360 --> 0:12:56.839 but we're all going to see also going to see 0:12:56.880 --> 0:13:00.600 lots of losers. So you say you need to look 0:13:00.600 --> 0:13:03.840 for more risk, but yet not go down too far 0:13:03.920 --> 0:13:11.280 into sort of the depths of you know, the corporates, ratings, issuance. 0:13:12.080 --> 0:13:13.520 How do you do that? How do you do both? 0:13:13.559 --> 0:13:15.880 Do you look abroad? Do you I mean, are there 0:13:15.920 --> 0:13:19.440 still opportunities that people haven't seen? It's bottoms up work. 0:13:19.600 --> 0:13:21.319 I mean you have to have you know, you've got 0:13:21.320 --> 0:13:24.680 to have a lot of smart people um underwriting, not 0:13:24.800 --> 0:13:27.719 just sectors anymore, but you know, individual credits because it's 0:13:27.760 --> 0:13:30.040 not just you know, there'll be sectors that win, they'll 0:13:30.080 --> 0:13:32.320 be sectors that loses. But even in the sectors that win, 0:13:32.520 --> 0:13:34.560 you know, there will be companies that kind of rise 0:13:34.600 --> 0:13:38.440 to the top and you know they will prosper. Uh 0:13:38.679 --> 0:13:41.040 when we you know, look at look at the retail 0:13:41.160 --> 0:13:43.640 for instance. I mean, you know, the amount of change 0:13:43.679 --> 0:13:47.280 we've seen over the past six months during the pandemic 0:13:47.480 --> 0:13:50.520 in terms of let's say e commerce penetration and retail sales. 0:13:50.920 --> 0:13:53.440 You know, we've seen basically a four point jump you know, 0:13:53.520 --> 0:13:57.240 from about twelve to six of e commerce penetration just 0:13:57.400 --> 0:14:01.800 during the pandemic. Previously, that four point increase took about 0:14:01.880 --> 0:14:05.160 five years to occur, so the change is rapid. You 0:14:05.160 --> 0:14:07.360 know that. There's that old kind of Leneing quote about 0:14:07.360 --> 0:14:09.640 you know, their decades when nothing happens, and then every 0:14:09.679 --> 0:14:12.240 weeks where decades happen. We're living in the middle of 0:14:12.280 --> 0:14:15.959 that right now. Yeah. Absolutely, in many many ways. Brian Will, 0:14:16.040 --> 0:14:17.680 and thank you so much for joining us. Brian Will 0:14:17.760 --> 0:14:21.080 and general portfolio manager for fixed income at tc W. 0:14:21.640 --> 0:14:24.080 They have two d and twelve billion dollars firm wide 0:14:24.120 --> 0:14:26.800 under management, so they see all parts of the market. 0:14:27.080 --> 0:14:28.680 We always like to talk to the smart folks at 0:14:28.680 --> 0:14:31.800 tc W. They generally had a more conservative view of 0:14:31.880 --> 0:14:33.960 the market, and I think that's been born out here. 0:14:34.080 --> 0:14:37.200 So again, Brian Will and Gender portfolio manager, fixed Income. 0:14:39.520 --> 0:14:42.520 The first presidential debate last night is in the books 0:14:42.520 --> 0:14:46.240 and what the debate. It was back and forth, very lively, 0:14:46.440 --> 0:14:49.720 to say the least, between President Trump and former Vice 0:14:49.720 --> 0:14:52.680 President Joe Biden. Let's take a listen to some of 0:14:52.720 --> 0:14:56.920 the highlights. Everybody knows he's a liar, but I just 0:14:57.000 --> 0:15:00.440 want to I want to make sure and you wanted 0:15:00.560 --> 0:15:05.320 last I want to make sure. Can you let him 0:15:05.320 --> 0:15:07.600 finish sir, he don't know how to do that. He 0:15:07.720 --> 0:15:10.800 knew it was a deadly disease. What did he do. 0:15:11.320 --> 0:15:13.960 He's on tape, is acknowledging he knew it. He said 0:15:14.000 --> 0:15:16.080 he didn't tell us or give people a warning of 0:15:16.120 --> 0:15:18.680 it because he didn't want to panic the American people. 0:15:19.200 --> 0:15:22.360 You don't panic. He panicked. We've done a great job. 0:15:22.600 --> 0:15:24.360 The only thing I haven't done a good job, and 0:15:24.400 --> 0:15:26.720 that's because of the fake news. No matter what you 0:15:26.760 --> 0:15:28.280 say to them, they give you a bad press on 0:15:28.360 --> 0:15:32.160 It's just fake news. They had the slowest recovery since 0:15:32.280 --> 0:15:37.440 ninety economic recovery since nine. It was the slowest recovery. 0:15:37.640 --> 0:15:41.160 I paid thirty eight million dollars one year. I paid 0:15:41.240 --> 0:15:47.200 twenty seven minute. Nobody's done that. He's just he's here's 0:15:47.240 --> 0:15:49.520 the deal. I know a lot more about it. Let 0:15:49.560 --> 0:15:54.720 him finish. The fact is that there is racial insensitivity. 0:15:54.800 --> 0:15:57.880 People have to be made aware of what other people 0:15:57.960 --> 0:16:02.920 feel like. That was President Donald Trump and former Vice 0:16:02.920 --> 0:16:06.080 President Joe Biden at the debates last night. Let's get 0:16:06.080 --> 0:16:09.240 a postmortem, if you will. Jeanie Zano title. She's a 0:16:09.240 --> 0:16:12.920 political contributor for Bloomberg News and also professor of political 0:16:12.920 --> 0:16:15.720 science at Iona College. Jenny, thanks so much for joining 0:16:15.800 --> 0:16:18.880 us here. Boy, lots to unpack from last night. What 0:16:19.000 --> 0:16:22.640 was your thirty thousand foot takeaway from the debates? Winners, 0:16:22.720 --> 0:16:25.880 losers or a draw? Yeah, it's so good to talk 0:16:25.880 --> 0:16:28.000 to you. I think, you know, I think debate at 0:16:28.000 --> 0:16:30.440 this point is a generous word. It was more like 0:16:30.480 --> 0:16:33.360 a brawl. And um, I think you know when you 0:16:33.400 --> 0:16:37.000 talk about winners and losers, my takeaway was when it 0:16:37.000 --> 0:16:40.520 it is so divisive and you know, described in so 0:16:40.560 --> 0:16:43.840 many ways, but certainly no Linkenant Douglas debate. This was 0:16:43.960 --> 0:16:47.880 like a you know, all out barbarawl. I think it's 0:16:47.920 --> 0:16:49.760 hard for there to be a winner or a loser 0:16:49.800 --> 0:16:52.640 in that context. You know, you had the vice president 0:16:52.720 --> 0:16:56.280 calling the president names, you had the President repeatedly interrupting. 0:16:56.720 --> 0:16:59.280 I'm curious to see how many people tuned out after 0:16:59.320 --> 0:17:02.440 the first fifty in twenty minutes. And so from that perspective, 0:17:02.480 --> 0:17:04.320 I think it is a draw, and I think you 0:17:04.480 --> 0:17:07.760 end up pretty much with the status quo. And unfortunately 0:17:07.800 --> 0:17:11.320 for the President, he went into this debate lower in 0:17:11.760 --> 0:17:14.240 you know, the polls across the country and even in 0:17:14.280 --> 0:17:17.240 many of the battleground states and that's a big challenge 0:17:17.240 --> 0:17:19.480 for him. When you're looking at a you know, Washington 0:17:19.480 --> 0:17:23.240 Post ABC poll the other day with the vice president 0:17:23.359 --> 0:17:27.640 nine almost double digits lead in Pennsylvania, that's a problem. 0:17:27.760 --> 0:17:30.040 And I think that is, you know, where we find 0:17:30.040 --> 0:17:33.200 ourselves the morning after Genny doesn't make a difference of 0:17:33.240 --> 0:17:36.480 the polls, even if someone decided to decide just a 0:17:36.560 --> 0:17:39.920 non botherable thing after last night. Um, I do think, 0:17:40.160 --> 0:17:42.120 you know, of course, for me as a political scientists, 0:17:42.160 --> 0:17:44.560 I think that is so unfortunate because of course that's 0:17:44.600 --> 0:17:47.600 how we speak, that's how we express ourselves, that's how 0:17:47.640 --> 0:17:50.960 we have power as Americans and as citizens in the republic. 0:17:51.320 --> 0:17:53.560 So I think it is a problem, and I think 0:17:53.680 --> 0:17:56.320 your point is well taken. We heard from Frank Luntz 0:17:56.400 --> 0:18:00.159 after the debate that many of the undecideds that he 0:18:00.320 --> 0:18:03.560 was pulling seemed like they just made tune out at 0:18:03.600 --> 0:18:05.880 this point, that they just didn't want to be involved, 0:18:05.960 --> 0:18:08.640 and who can blame them? And of course we all 0:18:08.680 --> 0:18:11.080 lose in that perspective. And so you know, you talk 0:18:11.119 --> 0:18:12.720 about a winner a loser, I think a lot of 0:18:12.720 --> 0:18:15.040 people said, and I agree, the American public is a 0:18:15.040 --> 0:18:19.440 loser when you can't have a real sustained debate about this. 0:18:19.880 --> 0:18:22.280 So many issues that are going on all around us. 0:18:22.400 --> 0:18:24.960 We're waiting for a Job's report out on Friday, We're 0:18:24.960 --> 0:18:26.879 in the middle of a pandemic, We've got a Supreme 0:18:26.920 --> 0:18:29.960 Court nomination. The list goes on and on, and there was, 0:18:30.080 --> 0:18:32.080 you know, a little bit of substance one. We don't 0:18:32.080 --> 0:18:34.439 want to say there was nothing, but it wasn't nearly 0:18:34.480 --> 0:18:37.840 what it should have been. So, Jennie, I guess that 0:18:37.880 --> 0:18:41.040 begs a question should be should there these two candidates 0:18:41.080 --> 0:18:45.199 even debate any further? You know, I know this is 0:18:45.240 --> 0:18:48.000 I've heard so many different ideas about this, and and 0:18:48.080 --> 0:18:51.040 you know, Democrats urging the president the vice president sorry 0:18:51.080 --> 0:18:54.240 not to debate. I think that would be unfortunate. I'm 0:18:54.280 --> 0:18:57.240 hoping this isn't the end of the presidential debates, probably 0:18:57.280 --> 0:18:59.959 selfishly because I was so excited about yesterday. I love 0:19:00.119 --> 0:19:02.720 this time of year. Um. I do hope that they 0:19:02.760 --> 0:19:04.800 have them. Um, I have to admit that I do 0:19:04.880 --> 0:19:06.960 hope that they have them, and I hope that there 0:19:07.040 --> 0:19:09.800 is a way that they could be done so that we, 0:19:10.119 --> 0:19:12.919 the American people, can benefit. Whether that means, you know, 0:19:12.960 --> 0:19:16.400 people are talking about shutting down Mike's. But the bottom 0:19:16.400 --> 0:19:19.240 line is if two people agree to debate and one 0:19:19.280 --> 0:19:22.200 of or both decide not to follow the rules, this 0:19:22.280 --> 0:19:24.399 is what happens. And I think this was a concerted 0:19:24.440 --> 0:19:27.840 strategy on the President's part to throw the vice president 0:19:27.920 --> 0:19:30.560 off his game, to make it hard for him to 0:19:31.000 --> 0:19:34.160 you know, express his opinions and to you know, show 0:19:34.160 --> 0:19:36.920 any strength. And I think the President may have gone 0:19:36.920 --> 0:19:40.440 too far in that respect. I think, you know, quite frankly, 0:19:40.600 --> 0:19:42.600