Speaker 1: Check it down man, Now down Man. It's the Beating
Speaker 1: the Book podcast, Peel Ali and this is what I've
Speaker 1: been looking forward to for quite some time. My NFL
Speaker 1: Draft special from a betting perspective, of course, and help
Speaker 1: me along with it. Drew den Sick you may know
Speaker 1: him from Twitter from the handle at Whale Underscore Kapper,
Speaker 1: the Whale Kapper himself. UM just a great dude, Super insightful, uh,
Speaker 1: super thoughtful when it comes to betting. Have him on
Speaker 1: a numbers game on visa to talk tennis mostly, but
Speaker 1: perhaps football is his number one sport along with tennis.
Speaker 1: UM love talking all sports with him that he has
Speaker 1: expertise in, and certainly the NFL is chief among them.
Speaker 1: As witnessed here in our draft discussion. This was fun. Um.
Speaker 1: I did a previous segment where I went through all
Speaker 1: of my NFL draft props that I'm betting in depth.
Speaker 1: Didn't include that here, but I do refer to them
Speaker 1: during the show. Some of my thinking has actually changed
Speaker 1: on a few of them. So all of these things
Speaker 1: are dynamic. But Drew and I get into that as well.
Speaker 1: I hope you enjoy I think you will enjoy it.
Speaker 1: I'm confident that you will NFL Draft exclusively right here
Speaker 1: with your Densick on the Beating the Book podcast. Enjoy
Speaker 1: it's a numbers game with your host, Jil Alexander. Unto
Speaker 1: us to believe in Adam lives. Yes, it is Gil
Speaker 1: Alexander live from San Francisco. Good morning to you. How
Speaker 1: are you doing. Hope everything's good with you and yours
Speaker 1: staying safe during the global pandemic. We'll trying to keep
Speaker 1: you distracting for the next couple of hours. NFL Draft extravaganza.
Speaker 1: Here with our buddy who usually joins us to talk
Speaker 1: about tennis. You can find him onto it are obviously
Speaker 1: whale Capper, that's what he goes by. He's our buddy,
Speaker 1: Drew Dinstick. Good morning to you, Drew, Thanks so much
Speaker 1: for doing this. Good morning to you, Gil. This is
Speaker 1: fantastic to be on. This is a super exciting that
Speaker 1: we finally get real live sports to handicap. Albeit you know,
Speaker 1: not of the contest variety, but the prop market for
Speaker 1: the NFL Draft is one of my favorite markets to
Speaker 1: get into every year, and this year with the unbelievable
Speaker 1: amount of offerings, you know, everybody is getting into the game.
Speaker 1: It feels like and there's more variety, more arbitrage, more intrigue,
Speaker 1: Like this is one of the better drafts of kind
Speaker 1: of my betting life. And so I'm super fired up
Speaker 1: for this year. Couldn't agree more. Something I've been into
Speaker 1: for years as well, and it just seems like, based
Speaker 1: on the circumstances, everybody's into it this year. As you
Speaker 1: point out, Um, first of all, where are you, by
Speaker 1: the way, it's good to see you outside. Where are you? So?
Speaker 1: I live in Long Beach, California. It's, uh, we finally
Speaker 1: are getting spring here. We have had like this pro
Speaker 1: long protracted cold wet, uh, you know, like winter into springs.
Speaker 1: So it's finally nice. Weather's breaking a little bit of hope.
Speaker 1: You know, California in general is feeling pretty positive about
Speaker 1: the pandemic. So I think, you know, we're we're we're
Speaker 1: rowing the boat in the right direction. Here. I'm in
Speaker 1: San Francisco. We got gorgeous yesterday as well up here. Um,
Speaker 1: but we will talk draft, and let's let me just start.
Speaker 1: You know, all I've been doing the last week or
Speaker 1: so is we've been batting Danny Burke, who's in studio
Speaker 1: there in Las Vegas and I have been batting back props.
Speaker 1: I've given my bets that I've made. But you make
Speaker 1: a great point there right off the top it, and
Speaker 1: so how I want to approach it today is just
Speaker 1: kind of go through how we see the top ten unfolding,
Speaker 1: and from that we could sort of unravel some of
Speaker 1: the some of your bets, some of the things you're
Speaker 1: thinking about. Um. But you start with that initial point.
Speaker 1: I think we should probably emphasize that again I have
Speaker 1: in past days, but let's just say what you said,
Speaker 1: there the opportunities to it in many places. We can't
Speaker 1: emphasize that enough, can we. Now this is there's probably
Speaker 1: only one core tenant to this. I mean, there's a couple.
Speaker 1: This is an information market. It's unique. This isn't the
Speaker 1: same as like a Sunday NFL game. Limits are different,
Speaker 1: the way the market moves is different. Um. And that's
Speaker 1: massively important because there's no don best screen, there's no uh,
Speaker 1: you know, there's no one market making book that is
Speaker 1: really establishing you know, that is doing price discovery right
Speaker 1: like when it comes to an NFL game, Like there's
Speaker 1: pretty clearly there are market leaders that will take bigger
Speaker 1: limits earlier that are out there doing price discovery that
Speaker 1: are sharpening a market before you know, the guys that
Speaker 1: want to lay five six figures on a game can
Speaker 1: get in. And that's not the case at all with
Speaker 1: the you know, these kind of betting props because you
Speaker 1: know that they don't show up on the screen. Uh.
Speaker 1: You can open up three books that you know across
Speaker 1: you know, Vegas offshore, New Jersey and you're gonna see
Speaker 1: prices is all freaking over the place. And it's just
Speaker 1: it's just a much more rigorous manual task to kind
Speaker 1: of uh kind of align um different books and you
Speaker 1: know and kind of balance risk when you have this
Speaker 1: kind of unusual marketplace. Uh. And because of that, that
Speaker 1: presents an enormous amount of value to us as that
Speaker 1: you know, as the betters, because you can pick off
Speaker 1: you know, risk crew bets. Uh, you know pretty much
Speaker 1: throughout the entirety of the cycle, let alone betting into
Speaker 1: numbers that you think will move you know, a substantial
Speaker 1: amount in you know, March and then coming back in
Speaker 1: April and you know, and taking the scalt Gil Alexander
Speaker 1: Drew did sick our guest this so our talk NFL
Speaker 1: Draft with us here at Visa, the sports betting network,
Speaker 1: serious exit of Channel two, O four, Visa dot com,
Speaker 1: the Visa app, Fubo, sling a game plus um and
Speaker 1: the other you know. The other big thing that is
Speaker 1: key with with a draft like this is the notion
Speaker 1: of mock drafts. So our you know, our research so
Speaker 1: to speak, what we're basing our predictions on obviously have
Speaker 1: nothing to do with ball games we've watched in recent
Speaker 1: weeks and in a larger swath of example size, but
Speaker 1: really with a cadre of quote unquote experts that are
Speaker 1: mock drafters, and I'm curious, a how much you rely
Speaker 1: on that? Uh, and then be which are the specific
Speaker 1: authors of mock drafts that you rely on more than others?
Speaker 1: Maybe this is this is an incredible talking point, and
Speaker 1: I'm I want to I'll lay out my thoughts on this,
Speaker 1: but I'm curious because you've been doing this for as
Speaker 1: long long you've been doing the you know, uh, paying
Speaker 1: attention to the space for longer in your opinion, maybe
Speaker 1: even more well informed than I have on this. But
Speaker 1: I at this point in time, I kind of take
Speaker 1: specific experts who have especially broad platforms, you know, especially
Speaker 1: you know, um, you know, wide reach, uh, and kind
Speaker 1: of categorize them in my head in terms of, Okay,
Speaker 1: this guys putting out a mock like where is this
Speaker 1: information coming from? Right, Like a guy like we'll start
Speaker 1: at the top in terms of you know, in terms
Speaker 1: of audience with ESPN, Right, a guy like mel Keeper, Like,
Speaker 1: I'm not looking at his information and I'm not catching
Speaker 1: news bites that mel Keeper is dropping and using that
Speaker 1: to make actionable bets because, in my opinion, a lot
Speaker 1: of his information is sourced from agents. Right. He's a
Speaker 1: lot of his power, a lot of his you know,
Speaker 1: you know resource to the industry. You know it's coming
Speaker 1: from agents, and he's doing solids for you know, for
Speaker 1: various you know parties, and you know that's kind of um,
Speaker 1: you know, his source as far as I can tell you, uh.
Speaker 1: And so for that reason, it's kind of disconnected from
Speaker 1: reality in terms of who what teams are going to
Speaker 1: pick what? Right, he probably has some sources in leagues, circles.
Speaker 1: You know, he's been around for long enough. Um, but
Speaker 1: you know, his kind of main role, his main sources,
Speaker 1: in my opinion, don't really inform you know, a draft process. Similarly,
Speaker 1: mix Shay at ESPN. I feel like he's kind of
Speaker 1: he's he thinks of himself as kind of an NFL
Speaker 1: scout in his own right and is much more involved
Speaker 1: in the process of evaluating talent, trying to identify needs
Speaker 1: for teams, and trying to do his mock in the
Speaker 1: way of, Okay, well, I'm going to find the perfect
Speaker 1: fit for each player for each team, right, And that's
Speaker 1: also not really a way you want to approach this.
Speaker 1: You're you know, we you want to find a guy
Speaker 1: that has that is well connected to a number of
Speaker 1: front offices, well connected to a number of scouts, and
Speaker 1: because his mock draft is going to reflect much more
Speaker 1: a reality of the board once we see it, in
Speaker 1: my opinion, Uh, and you know, of the guys that
Speaker 1: I look for, other guys I look at, I think
Speaker 1: Daniel Jeremiah at the NFL network is at this point
Speaker 1: in time the most well connected. It used to be mayok,
Speaker 1: I thought totally, but nowadays nowadays I think, I think
Speaker 1: Jeremiah has got the got the inside track on a
Speaker 1: lot of this stuff. Um. And then you know, beyond that,
Speaker 1: like the cadre of you know, people who are kind
Speaker 1: of entering the space and you know doing uh, you know,
Speaker 1: their own mock ups. You know, guys from you know Draft,
Speaker 1: you know Draft Network, and you know some of the
Speaker 1: other you know versioning, um, you know writers out there.
Speaker 1: You know they're kind of a mix of of kind
Speaker 1: of taking some information from the info guys and combining
Speaker 1: it with their own scouting and uh. And I think
Speaker 1: you know kind of the Mickshae model of kind of
Speaker 1: putting together a mock where you're informing it based on
Speaker 1: your own film and your own scouting and trying to
Speaker 1: identify team need like for us as handicappers, that's the
Speaker 1: least useful, um, but that's the most prevalent information out there.
Speaker 1: That's I think that's a great breakdown just to uh
Speaker 1: sort of Butcher's your Daniel Jeremiah point Um. I think
Speaker 1: he's a number one to sort of the the football
Speaker 1: draft followers that I respect go that way as well.
Speaker 1: By the way these things can be are are graded
Speaker 1: right in in about years going by, so we can
Speaker 1: actually see the performance of some of these guys from
Speaker 1: the past. And you know, the one sort of counter
Speaker 1: argument I would make to what we're saying oftentimes, so
Speaker 1: I don't want to rely too much on any one person, right,
Speaker 1: No one person is sacred in their predictions. But like
Speaker 1: I love Jeremiah so much, for instance, Drew that when
Speaker 1: he comes out with another iteration of his mock when
Speaker 1: something changes, it is like a it's like a bomb
Speaker 1: dropping in my draft world, where I'm like, oh my god,
Speaker 1: what happened between two point oh and three point oh?
Speaker 1: So perhaps I get more, you know, like I'm more
Speaker 1: rattled by that than I should be, uh if I
Speaker 1: was diversifying a little more. But he's a guy that
Speaker 1: I really rely on. And then there's the old tried
Speaker 1: and true thing for me, which I don't think could
Speaker 1: be overstated enough, which is we hear this from people
Speaker 1: about all you know, following beat writers during standard, standard
Speaker 1: sports seasons, but this is the one time for me
Speaker 1: where I can't get enough of it. Now has to
Speaker 1: be reliable, right because there's a lot of you know,
Speaker 1: Shenanigans out there too. We might have seen that with
Speaker 1: Isaiah Simmons going to the Giants, for instance, earlier this week.
Speaker 1: But I think like for me, just as a guy
Speaker 1: who grew up in Washington, d C. As a Redskins
Speaker 1: fan who still talks to my Redskins peeps all the
Speaker 1: time and I and I'm not a beat reporter for
Speaker 1: the Redskins, but there's something about having the pulse on
Speaker 1: your local team, and that the Chase Young is a
Speaker 1: Chase Young example is a great one for me here
Speaker 1: early on. And we'll see if the Redskins do draft
Speaker 1: Chase Young in the end, but I've never wavered on
Speaker 1: them drafting him. While others have sort of speculated about
Speaker 1: trades that that sort of ebden flowed through the last
Speaker 1: couple of weeks, it's just like, no, they're not. It
Speaker 1: just doesn't feel that way to be based on everything
Speaker 1: I know. So it's a combination. Look, there's no science
Speaker 1: to this other than know who you're relying on and
Speaker 1: that sometimes the biggest names aren't the ones you should
Speaker 1: be relying on the most. What a great point. Uh,
Speaker 1: there's the guy I turned out notifications for back in
Speaker 1: the middle of March who covers the Giants for like
Speaker 1: NJ dot Com. Guy you've never heard of in the
Speaker 1: sports landscape, but he was the first guy that was
Speaker 1: beating the drum with the Giants are gonna take Daniel
Speaker 1: Jones at six last year, And I remembered it because
Speaker 1: I was like, man, this guy really is sure of this,
Speaker 1: Like what yeah, really yeah? And then like by like
Speaker 1: by March thirty one, like you know, he was you know,
Speaker 1: like he was on it in like mid March, and
Speaker 1: by March thirty one, like every other major outlet across
Speaker 1: all of uh, you know, New York, New Jersey was like, yeah, no,
Speaker 1: this Daniel Jones thing seems real. And then sure enough
Speaker 1: he goes off the board at six. And I made
Speaker 1: a pretty decent amount because just kind of speculating because
Speaker 1: this one guy was like so sure uh And so
Speaker 1: I've had him on you know, notifications on just to
Speaker 1: see because you know, I don't think Gentleman has especially
Speaker 1: made up his mind. I do think they're almost certainly
Speaker 1: going to go offensive line. But of these top three
Speaker 1: guys I have these top three guys, I don't think
Speaker 1: they they have made up their mind yet. And so
Speaker 1: I'm still kind of you know, I have a little
Speaker 1: bit uh you know, kind of you know, some some
Speaker 1: positions to kind of cover what I think they're going
Speaker 1: to do. But you know, I think we'll we'll still
Speaker 1: get you know, a tip of the hand here, because
Speaker 1: Gettleman tends to, you know, as whereas some organizations are
Speaker 1: very um cloak and dagger smoke and you know, really
Speaker 1: try to you know, miss miss you know, misdirection. Gettleman
Speaker 1: has always sort of been you know, I'm gonna tell
Speaker 1: them like it is. And you know, once I got
Speaker 1: you know, some information and I say it like that,
Speaker 1: it is what it is. So I think we'll see
Speaker 1: them sip their hand in the next week. But we'll see.
Speaker 1: And and last thing about that Daniel Jones getting drafted
Speaker 1: by the Giants early last year you saw on ESPN
Speaker 1: largely because some of their experts didn't have that happening, right.
Speaker 1: It was the other guys like NJ dot com, as
Speaker 1: you point out, that had Daniel Jones going to the Giants.
Speaker 1: They We actually have tape of the reactions of folks
Speaker 1: on ESPN just go nuts when the Giants draft and
Speaker 1: right like, oh my god, we didn't see this coming
Speaker 1: at all, because it's this weird insular world of our
Speaker 1: experts are predicting something and so therefore all surprise emanates
Speaker 1: from that. It's it's this weird sort of universe anyway. Um,
Speaker 1: By the way, Drew jan sick I said at whale
Speaker 1: Capper earlier. That is incorrect. It's at whale underscore Capper.
Speaker 1: Let's make sure we yes, I don't know where we're going.
Speaker 1: If you go whale Caper could be something entirely different. Oh,
Speaker 1: let's begin with Oh wow, that's maybe that's worth a searching.
Speaker 1: It's all right, uh one and two. Then let's just
Speaker 1: start there. Let's get that out of the way. Are
Speaker 1: we convinced. Are you convinced that it is Joe Burrow
Speaker 1: to the Bengals and Chase hil to the Redskins. Yeah,
Speaker 1: I would. I I talked to somebody who bets in
Speaker 1: the UK, uh, and you know, we were kind of
Speaker 1: truly pricing this yesterday and I gave him prices, you know,
Speaker 1: basically minus five thousand. That Borrow goes one, and I
Speaker 1: think for for Chase Young to go to I have
Speaker 1: it in the minus one thousand range at this point. Um.
Speaker 1: But just kind of like your sentiment of the you know,
Speaker 1: the folks that are well connected to the Redskins. And
Speaker 1: I've heard other people say this besides you, is is
Speaker 1: that Chase Young as a slam dunk there. Um, you
Speaker 1: can still find prices, you know. And again because this
Speaker 1: is such a short turnaround at this point, like we're
Speaker 1: a week away, like and because there's no other sports going,
Speaker 1: it's not like you lock up your bank ll You're
Speaker 1: not gonna be able to get your bets down on
Speaker 1: the NBA playoffs, right like fire fire, fire away, in
Speaker 1: my opinion, in terms of price at this point. And
Speaker 1: you know there are places you know bookmaker will take
Speaker 1: big limits and you know they still have they have
Speaker 1: three props up right at the very end of their uh,
Speaker 1: they're offerings that are all like, well, the Redskins trade
Speaker 1: the number two pick, No, will they take Chase Young? Yes? Uh,
Speaker 1: you know, and then you know otherwise you can take
Speaker 1: you know, set up the exact and in Burrow and
Speaker 1: uh and and Chase Young and still find some value there.
Speaker 1: It's it's a juicy price, but I think that there's
Speaker 1: probably no better. There really is no other kind of
Speaker 1: sure thing as you head into this draft cycle than
Speaker 1: than those guys going on too. Um A couple of
Speaker 1: points there. One, you're right, I mean, it gets to
Speaker 1: your point about, oh, you can bet the Chase Young
Speaker 1: thing and multiple whole waves even at one book alone.
Speaker 1: Also just sort of side note a little disappointed in bookmaker.
Speaker 1: They had some other draft crops up last week and
Speaker 1: the week before, and it kind of disappeared to never
Speaker 1: come back. Um. Yeah, I don't know what they're that's about. Yeah,
Speaker 1: they were taking last I remember from the cycle last year. Um,
Speaker 1: they definitely were slow and kind of tepid in terms
Speaker 1: of putting their foot into the water in terms of offering.
Speaker 1: But once you got to the couple of days before,
Speaker 1: they were taking pretty big limits, bigger limits than you
Speaker 1: could get at some of the other offshore offerings. So um,
Speaker 1: worth keeping an eye on them because they'll throw some
Speaker 1: stuff back up, I bet, and they'll give you a
Speaker 1: pretty healthy shot at it um as we get closer.
Speaker 1: A great point about that, all right. So I was
Speaker 1: gonna jump ahead to number four here before really diving
Speaker 1: into three, five and beyond. Um, maybe I should anyway,
Speaker 1: But you said something there about four and the Giants,
Speaker 1: which I had to kind of written off as not
Speaker 1: not as much of a lock of Burrow to the
Speaker 1: Bengals and Young to the Redskins. Certainly not and certainly
Speaker 1: not a specific player. But I kind of had decided
Speaker 1: this is not just me decide it based on all
Speaker 1: the mocks that this is an offensive tackle. You still
Speaker 1: think it's an offensive tackle or how sure of that
Speaker 1: are you? Yeah? No, I put a good, good example
Speaker 1: you can if you wanted to try to dial in
Speaker 1: on the Giants. There are markets for will they take
Speaker 1: an offensive or defensive player? And I think the offensive
Speaker 1: player beyond just the fact that it makes the most
Speaker 1: sense given where they've invested their top you know, their
Speaker 1: top investments in the draft in the last two years,
Speaker 1: and a young quarterback and a young running back like
Speaker 1: Gettleman needs these guys to succeed or he's no longer
Speaker 1: going to be the Giants GM. So taking you know,
Speaker 1: a top tier taking the best tackle off the board,
Speaker 1: um is kind of you know is you know? And
Speaker 1: again I don't want to go back and lead it
Speaker 1: too well. These guys should do this, so they will,
Speaker 1: because that will get you in deep trouble if you
Speaker 1: put too much in that mindset. Um. But you know,
Speaker 1: you know, you know, Gettleman invested a ton, and I
Speaker 1: guess this week in some of the interviews some of
Speaker 1: the comments he has made, he basically you know, has
Speaker 1: kind of pointed to the fact that they invested a
Speaker 1: ton of their draft capital through free agency into the
Speaker 1: defensive side of the ball. UH, and he be laboring
Speaker 1: that point. I think was him tipping his hand out
Speaker 1: bit in terms of how they intend to allocate their
Speaker 1: draft capital towards, UH, the offensive line and some of
Speaker 1: the other uh, you know, some of the other holes
Speaker 1: that still exist on that team. Granted, best player available,
Speaker 1: maybe a guy like Simmons. UM. You know, people may
Speaker 1: want Simmons to end up in New York just because
Speaker 1: he's such a dynamic talent. He could be an exciting
Speaker 1: guy of cover uh from you know, from a media standpoint.
Speaker 1: But you know, I think the boring pick and quote
Speaker 1: unquote boring pick in terms of taking one of the
Speaker 1: best offensive lineman is is where they end up going.
Speaker 1: Prices around are kind of in the minus one fifty
Speaker 1: range for taking an offensive player. I would have made
Speaker 1: it in the minus two fifty range. So I think
Speaker 1: there is some pretty good value still on betting Giants
Speaker 1: take an offensive player. UM. And then it comes down
Speaker 1: to how they evaluate these three guys that are at
Speaker 1: the top of the tackle market. It's you know, I
Speaker 1: definitely hear from you know, scouts, from evaluators that they think,
Speaker 1: you know, that there's a clear one in uh, you know,
Speaker 1: and a guy like or you know, a clear one
Speaker 1: in terms of ceiling, and a guy like Beckton, and
Speaker 1: a clear one in terms of floor, and a guy
Speaker 1: like like Willis. But then you know the measurables, which
Speaker 1: is kind of Ben Gettleman's tailtale throughout his entire run
Speaker 1: as the GM like he just falls in love with
Speaker 1: guys who pop off the numbers at the combine. And
Speaker 1: that's pretty clearly works. So if I had to take
Speaker 1: one stab, it would be works. But uh, you know,
Speaker 1: we we still need to see Gettleman tip his hand
Speaker 1: on this one, I think, all right. And for those
Speaker 1: are wonder like, why did you go from two to
Speaker 1: four there? Uh, the reason is because the Giants being
Speaker 1: locked into an offensive line. And again, unless you believe
Speaker 1: the Simmons stuff, but being locked into an offensive lineman
Speaker 1: allows for all the speculation of what's to come. Um
Speaker 1: drew their pesky commercials here, so I'd rather than jump
Speaker 1: into it right now. We'll we'll do it after the break.
Speaker 1: But when we do come back, we'll talk to Drew
Speaker 1: Dinsick about what will the Lions do at number three?
Speaker 1: Because that's really where the draft begins. If you're to
Speaker 1: believe the borough Um Chase Young exact at the top.
Speaker 1: Do the Lions take Jeoffrey Akuta, a guy that we've
Speaker 1: said on the show here on a Numbers game. If
Speaker 1: you're playing the draft game Lions, you probably could draft
Speaker 1: him a little later. Um. But do they love him
Speaker 1: so much that they would take him obviously to fill
Speaker 1: the Darius Slay absence? Or do they make a trade
Speaker 1: and if so, who do they make it with? Are
Speaker 1: the Dolphins of the team to trade down after failing
Speaker 1: to tank? Are the Chargers so interested in one of
Speaker 1: those two guys to or Herbert that they would be
Speaker 1: willing to trade up? All of these questions that Drew's
Speaker 1: thoughts and more will to be a run on offensive
Speaker 1: lineman early and then wide receivers after that. Drew dinsa
Speaker 1: coming back on a Numbers Game at Visa the Sports
Speaker 1: Betting Network, Preston Johnson to come as well, and we'll
Speaker 1: throw up my draft props at some phere here on
Speaker 1: the show as well. Coming back and f l Draft
Speaker 1: on a Numbers Game and Visa. Welcome back to a
Speaker 1: Numbers Game with Jill Alexander back on the Numbers game
Speaker 1: GIL Alexander live from San Francisco, where sports betting analytics
Speaker 1: live here at Visa the Sports Betting Network. By the way,
Speaker 1: join us for the Visa twenty Draft Special live next Thursday,
Speaker 1: April so, eight days away now at eight p m
Speaker 1: Eastern five pm Pacific. Our draft bet casting experts Matt Humans,
Speaker 1: Michael Lombardi, Brent Musburger, Jonathan von Tobel and other special
Speaker 1: guests landalize the draft from a unique betting perspective. Of course,
Speaker 1: they'll track all the available all the available props, that is,
Speaker 1: as each selection is made, and alert you when they cash,
Speaker 1: of course, all through a betting prism. Check out the
Speaker 1: Visa Draft Special Live Thursday a p m. Eastern five
Speaker 1: pm Pacific, right here on Visa and the Sports Betting Network.
Speaker 1: My guest Drew dinsit kind enough to spend the hours
Speaker 1: the hour rather with us talking NFL Draft. So number
Speaker 1: three then, Drew, let's get right to it. The Lions
Speaker 1: are sitting there, Darius Lay no longer with the team.
Speaker 1: Jeffrey Akuta from Ohio State is sitting out there. What
Speaker 1: do you do? What do you do? Oh? Man? Um?
Speaker 1: And if I'm in that room, I am. I'm I've
Speaker 1: been preparing to trade this pick all winter. Uh, and
Speaker 1: now I'm looking around wondering, you know, if I'm going
Speaker 1: to get an offer, if we're gonna be able to
Speaker 1: evaluate the offer in time, or if we're just going
Speaker 1: to have to end up, you know, taking the best
Speaker 1: player or you know, top player on our board phill
Speaker 1: a need even though he may not be the best
Speaker 1: player available. That's kind of the quandry they find themselves in. Uh.
Speaker 1: And this happens year and year out where you have
Speaker 1: a team that's you know, kind of on the cusp
Speaker 1: of the shore fire, no doubt talent in this case,
Speaker 1: the top two being Burro and Chase Young. Uh. And
Speaker 1: you know, you think, okay, well, this should be a
Speaker 1: power position for these guys, right like, they should have
Speaker 1: a lot of leverage. They should have a lot of
Speaker 1: chips because there are teams behind them, and you know,
Speaker 1: picks five and six notably that absolutely have a need
Speaker 1: at quarterback for the future where the as the Lions
Speaker 1: are well set up in that standpoint, and so you
Speaker 1: should be able to leverage those teams into giving up
Speaker 1: some assets getting some extra picks out of this because
Speaker 1: guess what, the lines have more holes than just cornerback.
Speaker 1: They have lots of whole life. This is a team
Speaker 1: that is devoid of talent on the defensive side of
Speaker 1: the football. Uh and uh, you know this is this
Speaker 1: would be the type of time to you know, flip
Speaker 1: this pick, get some assets. But I don't know, I
Speaker 1: have a very very you know, a very very skeptical
Speaker 1: viewpoint of how likely trades are going to be in
Speaker 1: this draft. I think it's it's it's such a complicated,
Speaker 1: like such a hectic, complicated ten minutes when you're getting
Speaker 1: offers and evaluating you know, the earth and what you'll
Speaker 1: do with those picks, and you know, it's you know,
Speaker 1: if they had gotten its sorted out in a couple
Speaker 1: of days beforehand, that would be one thing. But to
Speaker 1: expect it to happen in the moment, I think is
Speaker 1: is pretty you know, pretty pretty tough, ask um. And
Speaker 1: that's do you think Drew that the that the nature
Speaker 1: you know, we you and I were talking about this
Speaker 1: allfair a little. Do you think the nature of of
Speaker 1: the pandemic and the fact that we're all doing this
Speaker 1: remotely this year makes it even more likely that in
Speaker 1: action will rule the day in action. Yeah. No, I
Speaker 1: think there's a number of hypotheses that hold water, and
Speaker 1: one of them for sure is that you'll have fewer trades.
Speaker 1: And I think it's born entirely out of the fact
Speaker 1: that draft rooms will be spread across, you know, spread
Speaker 1: across the country, everybody contributing remotely, and you know, it's
Speaker 1: it's I still think that it's not out of the
Speaker 1: realm of possibility that a team like the Chargers knows
Speaker 1: the guy they want is also at the top of
Speaker 1: the draft board for the for the Dolphins, and that
Speaker 1: they may give up the King's Ransom to move up
Speaker 1: to three. With the lines, that's still a realistic possibility
Speaker 1: in that scenario, I do not expect that they would
Speaker 1: go up for Herbert. I mean, for for two, I
Speaker 1: would expect they go up for Herbert. Uh. And that's
Speaker 1: the one kind of outstanding scenario that I have in
Speaker 1: the back of my head that I'm kind of catching against.
Speaker 1: But I do at the end of the day, I
Speaker 1: don't think that they're going to be able to have
Speaker 1: enough assets to trump whatever Miami can offer. Miami has
Speaker 1: so much draft capital this year, they are in such
Speaker 1: a power position they can pretty much squash whatever the
Speaker 1: Chargers offer, which I think de incentivizes the Chargers from
Speaker 1: you even trying to offer. Uh. And I think the
Speaker 1: Lions end up taking taking Okuda, whether or not he's
Speaker 1: the player, the right player at that spot, or just
Speaker 1: fills the glaring hole that is created by the move
Speaker 1: of Sleigh. I do think that's where they end up.
Speaker 1: I I land on the same thing with that. You
Speaker 1: and I are sympatico there. I just think the Lions
Speaker 1: end up taking Occuda. And by the way, if the
Speaker 1: Chargers do trade up to draft Herbert or two, but
Speaker 1: I'm with you, probably would be Herbert if they did that.
Speaker 1: That goes against everything that Anthony Lynn has been saying
Speaker 1: to date, which is not Tyrod Taylor is our guy.
Speaker 1: But we know it's lying season, so uh, anybody to
Speaker 1: their word at this point, Anthony Lynn or otherwise. I've
Speaker 1: got to take a break here, Drew will come back.
Speaker 1: I do want to talk about how what you feel
Speaker 1: the Dolphins and Chargers then, in fact, do at five
Speaker 1: or six do they just stand bad? Uh? And are
Speaker 1: the Chargers if we know that about Anthony Lynn saying
Speaker 1: that about Tyrod Taylor, are they absolutely going to pick
Speaker 1: a quarterback. We've kind of penciled in to her Herbert
Speaker 1: and Nanny order there at five or six, maybe Dot
Speaker 1: coming back Drew Dinsick NFL Draft right here in a
Speaker 1: numbers game at Basently Sports Betting Network. Welcome back to
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Speaker 1: Dinsic remains with us this hour on a numbers game
Speaker 1: at Visa the Sports betting Network. Gal Alexander talking NFL Draft. So, uh,
Speaker 1: if the Giants then go with an offensive line and
Speaker 1: at four or whether it's Tristan Worths from Iowa or whomever,
Speaker 1: because it will be a bit of a offensive tackle
Speaker 1: heavy top ten, I'm guessing what then, ultimately do you
Speaker 1: think happens with the Dolphins and the Chargers at five
Speaker 1: or sick? And just before the break, I just sort
Speaker 1: of threw out the thing about do we know that
Speaker 1: the Chargers are absolutely drafting a quarterback? Because I mean,
Speaker 1: Cam still out there right. I was asking Michael Lombardi
Speaker 1: about this yesterday, like what did they take a tackle?
Speaker 1: And then you know, like then they have Cam? Like
Speaker 1: are they not a top five talent you know, talent
Speaker 1: laden team in the NFL at that point, I don't
Speaker 1: know what are your thoughts of five or six, and
Speaker 1: then there's two by the to and the Dolphins have
Speaker 1: been this kind of media narrative that's gone on for
Speaker 1: now what six months, you know, taking you know, going
Speaker 1: back to the Dolphins getting their clocks cleaned by the Ravens.
Speaker 1: I feel like people were like up thinking for Tua,
Speaker 1: thanking for Ta. Ta was the number one on draft
Speaker 1: boards last April, right like he was expected to kind
Speaker 1: of be the guy in number one Heisman favorite, right like,
Speaker 1: you know, there there's there's a lot of legacy here
Speaker 1: that I think has carried perception that he is still
Speaker 1: the supervaluable asset in the face of a lot of
Speaker 1: evidence that teams are not going to take a chance
Speaker 1: on him given his injury status. I don't think it
Speaker 1: can be understated how significant this injury was, and I
Speaker 1: don't think that the smoke that has come kind of
Speaker 1: been you know, uh easy, you can't you can't miss
Speaker 1: it if you're following the NFL media, you know, this
Speaker 1: last couple of weeks, like you know, teams are really
Speaker 1: you know, skeptical about how serious this injury is, how
Speaker 1: long he's going to be able to play in the NFL,
Speaker 1: and you know, are those evaluations correct. That's not what
Speaker 1: we're here to talk about, Like we're here to talk about,
Speaker 1: you know, this big enough injury to scare teams from
Speaker 1: really can pulling the trigger on a guy that otherwise
Speaker 1: clearly has the talent to be a you know, franchise
Speaker 1: quarterback in the top five pick um, you add a
Speaker 1: little bit of kind of uh, you know, a little
Speaker 1: bit more intrigue to this question in this equation when
Speaker 1: you start to see it here, evaluations from players like
Speaker 1: Gil Brand from you know, from personnel guys like Gil
Speaker 1: Brand from you know, guys who are connected to the Dolphins,
Speaker 1: you know, connected to their general manager, who are like, now,
Speaker 1: this guy is more in the bill parcels mold of
Speaker 1: general manager. He wants a tall, kind of measurable quarterback
Speaker 1: that they can mold, you know, And that's a justin
Speaker 1: Herbert like pretty clearly. And so there's a lot of signs,
Speaker 1: there's a lot of breadcrumbs here that tell you that
Speaker 1: the Dolphins you know, prefer Herbert Um. And in which
Speaker 1: case you know that you have to wonder if any
Speaker 1: of you know, you know, if any of the uh
Speaker 1: you know, leverage that the Dolphins have over the Chargers
Speaker 1: is really to get you know, they want to get
Speaker 1: their guy and Herbert as opposed to you know, just
Speaker 1: taking we know, we don't really care. We wait at
Speaker 1: Herbert and two on the same level, and we'll take
Speaker 1: either one of those. So, UM, I would say that
Speaker 1: there is enough smoke and enough bread crumbs here for
Speaker 1: me to have gotten involved earlier when the prices were
Speaker 1: you know, we're completely upside down on this. Um. Less
Speaker 1: than a week ago, you could have gotten Herbert as
Speaker 1: the second quarterback overall in the plus three hundred plus
Speaker 1: four hundred range. You could have gotten To as the
Speaker 1: third quarterback overall in the plus eight hundred range. Um.
Speaker 1: You know, that's basically telling you that there was like
Speaker 1: an eight percent chance that you were to get to
Speaker 1: and then Herbert. And as you look at it now,
Speaker 1: with the information you have in front of you, does
Speaker 1: that sound even remotely close to reality? I don't think.
Speaker 1: I mean, yeah, best, um, and so, uh you know,
Speaker 1: I go, I kind of stick to a couple of
Speaker 1: tenants that I think, you know, I've kind of kept
Speaker 1: me out of trouble and drafts the last couple of
Speaker 1: years had got me into trouble in drafts previous year's betting.
Speaker 1: And that's you know, when you have kind of a
Speaker 1: guy that you feel like it is going to be
Speaker 1: good in the NFL and you kind of in your mind,
Speaker 1: have you know him at a certain tier or a
Speaker 1: certain rating UM, and then you know there is any
Speaker 1: kind of an injury red flag, These guys fall like
Speaker 1: stones when it comes to draft day. And you can
Speaker 1: point to a number of kind of the best bets
Speaker 1: that I've made in the draft prop market last two years,
Speaker 1: and it was literally finding smoke from more than one
Speaker 1: team on an injury that a guy you know that
Speaker 1: that they had red flag the guy for injury, and
Speaker 1: you know that that sort of mindset becomes viral. Uh
Speaker 1: you know, no pun intended, uh and uh you know,
Speaker 1: and the next thing you know, you know, you have
Speaker 1: everyone in the in the league is afraid to touch
Speaker 1: the guy. And you know, so I think to A
Speaker 1: absolutely falls into that category right now, which I think
Speaker 1: leads the Dolphins to making the safer pick with Justin
Speaker 1: Herbert at five. UM. Again, you know this is I'm
Speaker 1: not saying it's more likely than fifty fifty um. But
Speaker 1: certainly the way that this has been priced over the
Speaker 1: last month has been, uh, you know, completely upside down
Speaker 1: in my opinion. So you do think in the end,
Speaker 1: Dolphins with two. That's what I'm Harry. I don't know,
Speaker 1: I'm thinking her I think, I mean, I mean Herbert.
Speaker 1: I think I think I think they go Herbert. And
Speaker 1: some of that is is speculation based on the general
Speaker 1: manager and his connections to the Bill Parcels tree and
Speaker 1: the type of quarterbacks that they tend to uh, they
Speaker 1: tend to score higher on, so that some of that
Speaker 1: is speculative. Um, But I think her you know, I
Speaker 1: think Herbert at five is has has legs. You made
Speaker 1: such a great point off air, because I you know,
Speaker 1: when we're talking about a guy dropping, and obviously the
Speaker 1: most famous modern day example is Aaron Rodgers dropping all
Speaker 1: the way down into the twenties when he came out
Speaker 1: of school. And I'm not saying two is going to
Speaker 1: go that far down. But you made a great point
Speaker 1: of fair which is sometimes it's just as simple as
Speaker 1: the reason he drops is not because people don't like
Speaker 1: that individual, just like they haven't prepped to draft a quarterback.
Speaker 1: They've talked about all these other player years for months
Speaker 1: on the lead up, and so that player just by
Speaker 1: default kind of trickles down. Um. I think it's as
Speaker 1: simple and as good a point on that. We don't
Speaker 1: often hear that in mainstream meeting where it's like, yeah,
Speaker 1: I just didn't really plan on this is happening. We
Speaker 1: gotta take, you know, it's like it's that stupid one
Speaker 1: more break here. Drew will come back because I do
Speaker 1: want to hone in on six and then will the
Speaker 1: offensive tackle run continue? I guess if number four was one,
Speaker 1: will there be a couple more here coming off the board?
Speaker 1: Drew Den Sick at Whale Underscore Capper. We'll talk about
Speaker 1: his podcast as well. We'll plug that coming back from
Speaker 1: the break right here at a numbers game on Visa
Speaker 1: these Sports Betting that we welcome back to a numbers
Speaker 1: game with you know, Alexander, it is a numbers game
Speaker 1: Bill Alexander Live from San Francisco. Drew Den Sick at
Speaker 1: Whale Underscore Capper Live from U the outdoors and beautiful
Speaker 1: Long Beach, California. I said something right before the break,
Speaker 1: which was actually there you go take a big three.
Speaker 1: I love that old cartoon victory signal, Um, I said
Speaker 1: before the break, and I was talking about you actually
Speaker 1: saying it during the prior break, about this notion of
Speaker 1: sometimes when a player falls, it's just kind of as
Speaker 1: simple as we really hadn't been talking about him. We
Speaker 1: haven't done our due diligence. You wanted to flush that
Speaker 1: out a little more as it pertains to draft. Absolutely,
Speaker 1: And you know we were on the Chargers and your
Speaker 1: points were very sound in the previous segment, like they
Speaker 1: have gone above and beyond in terms of padding. Uh,
Speaker 1: you know, to Rod Taylor on the back, I mean
Speaker 1: to a degree that seems ridiculous. No one, no one
Speaker 1: loves Rod Taylor that much, even Anthony Lynno. Can you know,
Speaker 1: can can you know? You know, professors love to whatever
Speaker 1: degree he wants. But I don't know that he's fooling anyone. Um.
Speaker 1: And you're right also, and that the Chargers have a
Speaker 1: team outside of quarterback that is rostered to compete for
Speaker 1: a championship, Like this team is stacked, especially on defense,
Speaker 1: and like they only really have the one hole at quarterback. Uh,
Speaker 1: you know, maybe you know the offensive line is not
Speaker 1: great they can use some help on the offensive line.
Speaker 1: And clearly this is a draft where you know, in
Speaker 1: the top ten you can take an elite talent and
Speaker 1: for for the offensive line, but you know that that
Speaker 1: quarterback position is a huge question mark. And oh, by
Speaker 1: the way, they're moving into a brand new stadium uh
Speaker 1: in Englewood, and they are having an extremely difficult time
Speaker 1: selling tickets for their you know, this new endeavor. So
Speaker 1: the idea that they come out of this draft with
Speaker 1: a quarterback of the future and can really sell this
Speaker 1: to the fans, I guess the fans. I mean I
Speaker 1: live in Los Angeles and I supposedly they're around, but
Speaker 1: I certainly don't see them. Um, but if they it's
Speaker 1: as if they abandoned their fan base in San Diego
Speaker 1: or something. You know, you can hear everyone in San
Speaker 1: Diego go ahead and nuts right now. It is And
Speaker 1: you know, hey, they were like, hey, people in l A.
Speaker 1: They watched the Chargers. Well, it's because they're they're on
Speaker 1: because they're on TV. It's not because they love the Chargers. Sorry, um,
Speaker 1: but yeah, the you know, the the idea that you
Speaker 1: have you come out of this draft with a quarterback.
Speaker 1: If you're the Chargers is pretty appealing in terms of
Speaker 1: being able to sell your you know, the future of
Speaker 1: the franchise here. Um, But if your only choice, if
Speaker 1: you can't make a trade up to three, if you
Speaker 1: can't get ahead of the Dolphins, and then the Dolphins
Speaker 1: take Herbert, who uh you know you had penciled in
Speaker 1: as you know, was gonna fall to you at six,
Speaker 1: you know, do you pull the trigger on a risky
Speaker 1: asset like toa And that is an enormously important question.
Speaker 1: If to it does not go at six, where does
Speaker 1: he go? The free fall could be absolutely epic. And
Speaker 1: all of this is predicated on what we were talking
Speaker 1: about just a minute ago, you know, like the preconception
Speaker 1: in January, February, and March for every team in the
Speaker 1: NFL was that too was going to go potentially top three.
Speaker 1: So if you weren't expected to, you know, you you
Speaker 1: kind of make a decision like, okay, well how do
Speaker 1: we feel about to Ah, Well, we're okay at the
Speaker 1: quarterback position. We're not going to give up our entire
Speaker 1: draft of assets to move up to three to take him.
Speaker 1: So we're out of the two again, let's focus on
Speaker 1: the other you know, five players that are available, right,
Speaker 1: and so you allocate your resources in terms of preparation
Speaker 1: to the guys that you think you have a reasonable
Speaker 1: chance will be on the board when you are picking,
Speaker 1: and you may not be dedicating your you know, your
Speaker 1: time and your effort to evaluating a guy like to
Speaker 1: throw a monkey mention too, this and that the entire
Speaker 1: you know, coronavirus quarantine has you know, prevented you know,
Speaker 1: teams that are in the quarterback market from doing full
Speaker 1: medical evaluations of him. And you have kind of cooked
Speaker 1: up the absolute worst case cocktail for this young band,
Speaker 1: which is really sad because you know, in any other
Speaker 1: year this may be a very different outcome. But you know,
Speaker 1: I think the reality of you know, him falling out
Speaker 1: of the top six is real. And if that happens,
Speaker 1: where does he land? I mean, you know, we've we've
Speaker 1: we mentioned it. But you know, a team like the
Speaker 1: you know, the Raiders could use a quarterback for the future.
Speaker 1: But you know, we've gotten Mike Mayock on record as
Speaker 1: saying it's been you know the most difficult part of
Speaker 1: this entire process has been you know, not having medical
Speaker 1: evaluations and our medical team not getting the information. Yeah,
Speaker 1: so if you can't you know, if you're if you're
Speaker 1: there on the you know, if you if if you know,
Speaker 1: pick twelve comes up. You've been preparing this entire cycle
Speaker 1: for which of these three wide receivers are we the
Speaker 1: most excited about because we need a wide receiver. Uh?
Speaker 1: And then oh, by the way, you know, you know,
Speaker 1: a guy that could be the best quarterback of this
Speaker 1: draft falls into your lap at twelve. You know, do
Speaker 1: you pull the trigger on him if you're the Raiders
Speaker 1: or is it too risky of a decision? And you know,
Speaker 1: it's it's it kind of comes down to what you know,
Speaker 1: what we were saying, which is that you may just
Speaker 1: have not had you may not have enough information in
Speaker 1: hand in house through you. Your scouts, haven't your medical
Speaker 1: team hasn't gotten their work that they needed to get
Speaker 1: done on this guy, and therefore you have to pass
Speaker 1: on him. And I think you know, you look back
Speaker 1: to the Aaron Rodgers draft and the fact that he
Speaker 1: felt a twenty four and how you know how prolonged
Speaker 1: that slide was. Uh. You know, that wasn't like a
Speaker 1: Johnny Man's l type of slide where every team had
Speaker 1: kind of had their chance to think about it and
Speaker 1: decided not to pull the trigger. That was much more
Speaker 1: of Oh well, actually we thought Rogers was going to
Speaker 1: go number one, so we didn't really do our homework
Speaker 1: on them. Uh, and that that that ended up, you know,
Speaker 1: fighting a lot of teams in the acts. I just
Speaker 1: think it's such an interesting dynamic. I mean, you think
Speaker 1: about teams like the Jaguars, who you know, many think
Speaker 1: are tanking for Trevor. Right, all of a sudden, if
Speaker 1: two of falls in their lap at nine, They're like
Speaker 1: they have ten minutes to basically decide on their legacy
Speaker 1: as as personnel, you know, decision makers, It's like what
Speaker 1: do we do? Uh? Same thing with the Raiders, as
Speaker 1: you point out, So if the Chargers don't let so
Speaker 1: Herbert goes to Miami, let's say your hunches that the
Speaker 1: Chargers go offensive tackle. Then does that begin the offensive
Speaker 1: tack goal run or not begin it but continue it?
Speaker 1: So I made I made a play that too. It
Speaker 1: was going to fall out of the top six at
Speaker 1: plus seven. Uh. And you know, you know, you know
Speaker 1: how this goes when you when you get when you
Speaker 1: get a number like that, and now I'm looking at
Speaker 1: that online. Now has that now has field over top
Speaker 1: six at plus you know, plus two twenty five. So
Speaker 1: that's come way in on top of the Now that's
Speaker 1: that's that's absolutely wild. And you know, but I don't
Speaker 1: think this is is unrealistic at all, um, and if it,
Speaker 1: you know, but it's the same same kind of thing,
Speaker 1: like you know, when you get like just an outrageously
Speaker 1: good number in the futures market or something like that,
Speaker 1: like you know, or let's say you went, you know,
Speaker 1: you went with Joe Burrow for Heisman last year in August,
Speaker 1: right and something. You know, he goes through the first
Speaker 1: couple of games and he just shows out and all
Speaker 1: of a sudden, you know, you see his number. You
Speaker 1: have a hundred one in your pocket, and now you
Speaker 1: know they're they're reopening the market and it's you know,
Speaker 1: you know, five to one or whatever. Right, Like it's
Speaker 1: tough not to um, you know, use you know, cognitive
Speaker 1: biases start kicking in and you're like, oh no, no,
Speaker 1: just definitely gonna happen totally. You get all of this
Speaker 1: confirmation bias just watches over you and you're like, this
Speaker 1: is definitely gonna happen now, um, isn't it? Yeah? Yeah, yeah,
Speaker 1: so I'm I'm fighting that. I'm fighting that cycle right
Speaker 1: now with two is going to fall right, because I
Speaker 1: have I have a pretty good amount kind of spread
Speaker 1: out on Herbert going second to a going third quarterback,
Speaker 1: taken Herbert's second quarterback to a third quarterback, and then
Speaker 1: to a falling out of the top six are all
Speaker 1: are all in my portfolio with some pretty nice positions.
Speaker 1: So at this point, I'm just trying to say, Okay, well,
Speaker 1: you know, I'm gonna let this market go bananas. It's
Speaker 1: gonna completely flip upside down, and I'm gonna take some
Speaker 1: scalps before we get to draft ded because I don't
Speaker 1: want to be in this position where I have all
Speaker 1: of this value and let it go to waste. Because
Speaker 1: I've convinced myself that it's that it's for sure going
Speaker 1: to happen. So I'm a little I'm walking on eggshells
Speaker 1: about around in this right topic right now. But um
Speaker 1: so I'm prepared for but if to a but to
Speaker 1: answer your original question, if to the two, A dozen
Speaker 1: go six, what do the Chargers do? Uh? They take
Speaker 1: the best tackle off the board, And honestly, this I
Speaker 1: think sets up for a tackle run in the top
Speaker 1: ten as you kind of alluded to earlier, because um,
Speaker 1: you know, I see teams at six, I see teams
Speaker 1: at eight, nine, and ten who all could use help
Speaker 1: on the offensive line. Uh and uh. I think actually
Speaker 1: really this sets up for um, you know, just an
Speaker 1: offensive line heavy first round overall, which would be which
Speaker 1: would be another nice position to take in my opinion
Speaker 1: as we head into this draft, just over five and
Speaker 1: a half offensive lineman. I have a I'm pretty overweight
Speaker 1: on that one. Yeah, there's a there's some props out there.
Speaker 1: You can see that five and a half. There's something
Speaker 1: you can see it at six and a half. That's
Speaker 1: that could go either way. Some people think they'll be
Speaker 1: more than six and a half. Just to get back
Speaker 1: to Daniel Jeremiah, for I cons we brought him up earlier.
Speaker 1: He's got to a going at six, which it should
Speaker 1: be noted in his three point it was the first
Speaker 1: time he had Herbert and to a flip flopped. He
Speaker 1: then has Derek Brown going to Carolina at the defensive
Speaker 1: tackle from Auburn at seven. Uh. Number eight, talk about
Speaker 1: the offensive lineman. Now back to the offensive lineman, Jedderick
Speaker 1: Wills from Alabama going to Arizona. They obviously want line
Speaker 1: help for their young quarterback Kyler Murray, and of course
Speaker 1: their new acquisition DeAndre Hopkins is a target. Makes sense
Speaker 1: to go after an offensive lineman. Mackay becked in Jeremiah
Speaker 1: has penciled in for the Jags at number nine, backing
Speaker 1: from Louisville of course, and then rounding out the top ten.
Speaker 1: I think this is very interesting. Isaiah Simmons. You talk
Speaker 1: about a guy that falls into a team's lap. I mean,
Speaker 1: Isaiah Simmons. I don't want to call him generational, but
Speaker 1: like there's kind of a scenario and if he ends
Speaker 1: a bit Cleveland, that's a real good spot for him. Yeah,
Speaker 1: as football fans, that's what we should all be rooting
Speaker 1: for because that makes the sounds Ravens games over the
Speaker 1: next five years must see TV twice a year, right
Speaker 1: like that as it as absolutely perfect stopper. I mean
Speaker 1: you you can remember back when you know Lamar Jackson
Speaker 1: was a rookie. Uh, they go up against the Charger
Speaker 1: Derwin James just completely you know, wiped him off the
Speaker 1: map for three quarters. Like that's the kind of player
Speaker 1: Isaiah Simmons is. In my opinion. I see a lot
Speaker 1: of a lot of similarities between what Simmons can do
Speaker 1: and what Derwin James can do. Uh. And so you know,
Speaker 1: you know, Cleveland obviously desperately needs offensive tackle help. And
Speaker 1: I think a lot of the mock drafts you see them,
Speaker 1: you see you know, them slotting best available offensive tackle
Speaker 1: to Cleveland. Uh. And that's probably the most likely scenario.
Speaker 1: But if a guy like Simmons falls in their lap, um,
Speaker 1: that's that's a match made in heaven for football fans worldwide.
Speaker 1: So I'm I'm pulling for that personally. Um, that's a
Speaker 1: great point. Facing him twice a year. Good, It's such
Speaker 1: such a good matchup. But you know, there's I do
Speaker 1: see Carolina at seven as a potential landing spot for
Speaker 1: Simmons just because they lose Keik Lee and Simmons you
Speaker 1: can potentially plug in as a linebacker, and I don't
Speaker 1: they're not the same player, obviously, they're very different in
Speaker 1: terms of skill set. But you know, I I could
Speaker 1: see that happening as well. Drew, let me bounce in.
Speaker 1: We'll take a break, we'll come back. We'll get more
Speaker 1: specifically into some of the bets you've made some that
Speaker 1: you're eyeing will throw up mine. I'll talk about where
Speaker 1: I think I may have gotten torpedoed certain category. I'm
Speaker 1: not feeling that great about coming back NFL Draft with
Speaker 1: Drew Dinsic on a numbers game at Visa and these
Speaker 1: sports Betting network. It's a numbers game with your host,
Speaker 1: Jil Alexander. Believe in analytics. It is a numbers game,
Speaker 1: our number two, Gill Alexander, right here live in San Francisco,
Speaker 1: our San Francisco outpost here on the network series XM
Speaker 1: Channel two, O four, Visa dot Com, the Visa app,
Speaker 1: Phobos Link game plus Drew Dinsick kind enough, I imposed
Speaker 1: uh kind enough to stick around for one uh more
Speaker 1: segment with us to wrap things up about the NFL Draft.
Speaker 1: So before we get into specific prop bets, Drew, if
Speaker 1: you would, so, let's just run through them one through
Speaker 1: ten again. This is the Drew Dinsic mock. Again. This
Speaker 1: has nothing to do with um anything but how it
Speaker 1: feels right now. But it's Burrow at one to the Bengals.
Speaker 1: It's Chase Young uh two to the Redskins. Uh. We
Speaker 1: talked about Jeffrey ol Couda going to the House stated
Speaker 1: how three four, and then Herbert at five. What do
Speaker 1: you got after that? Yeah, I don't mind slotting two
Speaker 1: a six, just to kind of a sperm an emotional
Speaker 1: hedge on top of you know, it makes sense that
Speaker 1: the Chargers come out of this with a quarterback. Uh.
Speaker 1: And then after that, I like Uh, I like Brown
Speaker 1: to Carolina at seven. I like Beckton at eight. I
Speaker 1: think fits scheme wise a little bit better. With Arizona,
Speaker 1: they will more likely go Beckton than Wills, And then
Speaker 1: Wills I think goes nine to um to Jacksonville. Jacksonville
Speaker 1: obviously all in on h Gardner Minshew this year. That
Speaker 1: makes sense. He's on such a team friendly contract you
Speaker 1: find out this year. If he's your guy, that's great.
Speaker 1: You know you got him lockdown on an unbelievably team
Speaker 1: friendly contract for a couple of years. If he's not
Speaker 1: your guy, you're at the top of the draft next year,
Speaker 1: picking a guy like Trevor Lawrence with the quarterback of
Speaker 1: the future, so that all checks out. Uh. And then
Speaker 1: at ten, UM, I think uh. I think you get
Speaker 1: a tough call here between Simmons and uh uh and
Speaker 1: reaching for a next tier offensive tackle like Andrew Miller. Um,
Speaker 1: but uh, you know, I'd like to see Simmons go.
Speaker 1: I could see Andrew Miller. I'll slot Simmons in there
Speaker 1: just as a fan standpoint. So pretty similar to what
Speaker 1: DJ has up in his mock three point. Oh is
Speaker 1: is kind of informed most of my betting on this
Speaker 1: top ten. Yeah, and then I guess the run on
Speaker 1: wide receivers begins thereafter. I suppose, Um, yeah, how many
Speaker 1: wide receivers first round? In second round? I mean, yeah,
Speaker 1: let's talk about that, actually, because I think there's been
Speaker 1: a there may be a betting value on underwide receivers
Speaker 1: at this point. Um, we've seen this in years past
Speaker 1: where there are so many good options and running backs
Speaker 1: fall in this category. To this can be the same
Speaker 1: kind of conversation. I think running backs and wide receivers.
Speaker 1: For this draft, I see a pretty clear tier one
Speaker 1: for wide receivers in the top three. That's that's that's unimpeachable. Right.
Speaker 1: There's gonna be you know, three of these guys who
Speaker 1: are gonna go between three between eleven and twenty at
Speaker 1: least between eleven and twenty two. When the when the
Speaker 1: Eagles pick, you're going to see all three guys go right,
Speaker 1: and so Jody Lamb and rugs you're referring to you
Speaker 1: got it. Uh. And then after that you have kind
Speaker 1: of Jefferson in a tier by himself as sort of
Speaker 1: one b uh and then uh at. But beyond that
Speaker 1: all of these guys Higgins I uh, and then down
Speaker 1: the list from there another seven guys yeah, mims. Yeah.
Speaker 1: These guys are all on tier two and they're more
Speaker 1: or less indistinguishable. And when that happens, that tends to
Speaker 1: de incentivize teams to reach teams to trade up and uh,
Speaker 1: and teams think that, Okay, well, you know we're gonna
Speaker 1: address a position of scarcity rather than go and take
Speaker 1: a wide receiver now when you know we have another
Speaker 1: pick coming up in you know, twenty picks or so,
Speaker 1: and you know we can just take a guy there.
Speaker 1: So there are there are clear needs for wide receivers
Speaker 1: in this year's draft. UM. The wide receiver marketing free
Speaker 1: agency was extremely soft, I felt, and I think that
Speaker 1: that was borne out of the fact that so many
Speaker 1: teams are coming into this draft expecting to take wide
Speaker 1: receivers early. UM. But I think you could see more
Speaker 1: going round two than round than than I think you
Speaker 1: could see more in round two just on the basis
Speaker 1: of teams aren't going to need to you know, they
Speaker 1: aren't going to force it, um, and they may choose
Speaker 1: other positions where, uh, you know, talent is a little
Speaker 1: bit more scarce. Cornerback is comes to mind immediately. There
Speaker 1: offensive tackle as well, there's about you know, there are
Speaker 1: kind of two clear tiers of offensive tackles in my opinion,
Speaker 1: and after that it falls off dramatically. Um. So if
Speaker 1: you get one of the top six tackles, if you
Speaker 1: need one of the top six tackles, you're gonna take
Speaker 1: one of them in the first round. So I could
Speaker 1: see a situation where we only see four or five
Speaker 1: wide receivers in round one, which may creates some value
Speaker 1: on under five and a half wide receivers. But I'm
Speaker 1: gonna wait until that number it gets a little bit
Speaker 1: bigger before I jump in. Gil Alexander Drew DINSI here
Speaker 1: on a numbers game at Visa the Sports betting network
Speaker 1: talking NFL Draft. Um, that's a great point about wide receivers, man,
Speaker 1: it is really true, Like, yes, there's a whole bunch
Speaker 1: of them, but after the first four, is there any
Speaker 1: one of them that is so much better than any
Speaker 1: of the others that teams are as, to use your word,
Speaker 1: super incentivized to to draft one of them as high
Speaker 1: as they might otherwise. It's a great point, and what
Speaker 1: makes these drafts so interesting when you get down further
Speaker 1: in them. Let's go back to the top four a second.
Speaker 1: I was making this point with Michael Lombardi, host of
Speaker 1: the Lombardi Line here at Visa yesterday, which was every year,
Speaker 1: you know, we tend to forget the the inexact science
Speaker 1: of this. Every year in recent history, Drew, there has
Speaker 1: been a shocker at the top of the draft, in
Speaker 1: the in the top five picks, some more shocking than others. Right,
Speaker 1: So there was you know, even Baker Mayfield at number one.
Speaker 1: People forget until the last twenty hours, like he was
Speaker 1: not the number one pick in the draft, right, So
Speaker 1: like that even in the in the short lead up,
Speaker 1: became a bit of a surprise that he ended up
Speaker 1: number one to the Browns. Obviously, Mitch Drobiskie the Bears
Speaker 1: trading up to number two to grab him after thirteen
Speaker 1: starts at North Carolina was a shocker. Joey Bosa went
Speaker 1: way higher to the Chargers than everyone had projected. And
Speaker 1: then even last year, right Farrell going to the Raiders
Speaker 1: at four or was like, whoa, what what are they doing?
Speaker 1: Like no one had that are we missing something here?
Speaker 1: Like might we be missing something? Yeah, we might be. Um,
Speaker 1: we could see the one thing that's been in the
Speaker 1: back of my head that I have not made any
Speaker 1: action on that I'm scared about, uh because it would
Speaker 1: wipe out a bunch of bets that I have is
Speaker 1: if the Lions, If the Lions take a quarterback, we
Speaker 1: could see a scenario where Stafford gets dealt. I think, Um,
Speaker 1: that's this is a team that isn't built to win. Now,
Speaker 1: Stafford is on a pretty big contract. There are teams
Speaker 1: out there like the Chargers, like the Patriots that I
Speaker 1: feel like would could make a deal for a guy
Speaker 1: like Stafford. Um, in which case you could see the
Speaker 1: Lions take take Herberd or take two or whoever they prefer. Uh.
Speaker 1: And you know this, it may be that they may
Speaker 1: talk themselves into this because they're not getting the you know,
Speaker 1: the type of deal that they're expecting for the third
Speaker 1: overall pick, and they may just say, okay, look like
Speaker 1: a lot of guys in the Lions organization really need
Speaker 1: to reset the clock to save their jobs, and a
Speaker 1: very good way to do that would be to basically
Speaker 1: start over at the quarterback position. So I'm a little
Speaker 1: you know that if there's something totally bananas that happens
Speaker 1: that would totally shake up the top ten of the draft,
Speaker 1: I think it's at the Lions pick at three. Man,
Speaker 1: A shutter just went through me, like if something just
Speaker 1: blows up, all of this, all of this tongue is
Speaker 1: just rendered completely mood. Um all right, let yeah, that's
Speaker 1: that's a you know, stranger things, man, Stranger things, um, danny,
Speaker 1: if we could throw up my the ones that I've
Speaker 1: bet so far globally, these are all from bookmaker, just
Speaker 1: to be specific where I bet these. Uh, this is
Speaker 1: what I bet so far, by the way, not all
Speaker 1: of them, because I don't know if we listed. The
Speaker 1: very first thing that I bet was actually under four
Speaker 1: and a half quarterbacks when Caesar's first released it and
Speaker 1: they limited me drew as I famously talked about on air,
Speaker 1: to a three hundred dollar wager not to win three
Speaker 1: hundred dollars, but three hundred dollars to win less on
Speaker 1: under four and a half quarterbacks. Um, that's all another story.
Speaker 1: But these are the ones um with a bit higher
Speaker 1: limits than that, although not much more higher, by the way,
Speaker 1: it should be pointed out, these aren't like massive bets
Speaker 1: that are allowed, but to the degree that you can
Speaker 1: bet him and Nickel here and Nickel there, which pick
Speaker 1: will change? Young be drafted under two and a half.
Speaker 1: That was my first bet uh far away places back
Speaker 1: in March March that, as you point out, probably good
Speaker 1: value at this point in minus five fifty and then
Speaker 1: a whole sluvable on April fet total players drafted by
Speaker 1: Bama in the first round. I actually went to six
Speaker 1: on this, so I took a flyer at plus one hundred.
Speaker 1: I could easily lose that one if McKinney doesn't get drafted. UM.
Speaker 1: Total players from ellis you drafted in round one. Feel
Speaker 1: very good about the under five and a half. Total
Speaker 1: players from a house stay drafted. Feel very good about
Speaker 1: the under two and a half despite the juice as
Speaker 1: I see it, being young and Akuda and that's it.
Speaker 1: Total players from Clemson drafted over one and a half.
Speaker 1: I think you could get as many as three total
Speaker 1: players from Georgia drafted round one. UM, that one may
Speaker 1: fall by the wayside because I don't know if DeAndre
Speaker 1: Swift is gonna get drafted, so I may lose that one.
Speaker 1: There total players from Auburn drafted under one and a half.
Speaker 1: Feel good about that, although of course all none of
Speaker 1: these are locks. Here's where it gets into sort of
Speaker 1: teams versus conference more first round picks. I took a
Speaker 1: flyer on Bama versus the Big Ten. Now, I was
Speaker 1: talking to you off air, and one of the things
Speaker 1: that I've realized here in the run up is may
Speaker 1: Achilles in this draft may end up being the Big Tent.
Speaker 1: I may have underestimated the Big Ten in the first round,
Speaker 1: but I have Alabama big plus money. We'll see I
Speaker 1: do like Clemson in a straight up versus Oklahoma, UM
Speaker 1: two or three Clemson players I think to Oklahoma players
Speaker 1: total players are Big Tent drafted a round one under
Speaker 1: five and a half, I may lose that more first
Speaker 1: round picks a CC versus Pack twelve. I took a
Speaker 1: c C minus a half most first round picks or
Speaker 1: more first round picks. Clemson versus ol House State. I
Speaker 1: took Clemson plus a half at minus one nine UM
Speaker 1: So those are all my picks. I feel great about
Speaker 1: a bunch of them, not so great about a few.
Speaker 1: As I pointed out, mm hmm, I'm in agreement with
Speaker 1: a lot of those picks. I mean, you have enough
Speaker 1: value from early on that you're at least going to
Speaker 1: be able to capture you know, you can at least
Speaker 1: cover your steak if you if you like, And I'm
Speaker 1: with you on this Georgia bet and maybe be fun
Speaker 1: to kind of pick pick your brain a little bit
Speaker 1: on what to do now because this has moved in
Speaker 1: your direction a lot. And in general, you know, do
Speaker 1: you have a strategy for um? You know, when you
Speaker 1: make a bet like Georgia over one and a half
Speaker 1: at minus one twenty, it's currently market wide and about
Speaker 1: minus two hundred right now, Um, you know you can
Speaker 1: come back on uh and capture you know, basically buy
Speaker 1: out of that and get but get some you know,
Speaker 1: some winnings accumulated, Like are you would are you going
Speaker 1: to take any of the liability off on any of
Speaker 1: these place? I think on that Georgia one, I may
Speaker 1: just try to get off it. Yeah. Um, And that's
Speaker 1: one thing with you. I'm with you. I'm I'm prepping
Speaker 1: right now for that because I I do agree like
Speaker 1: Swift if Yeah, well, at the time I made the bed,
Speaker 1: I thought Swift had a chance, and I thought the
Speaker 1: other offensive tackle that they you know, the guys an underclassman,
Speaker 1: and I thought he was going to shoot up as
Speaker 1: we got closer and closer. But you know this, the
Speaker 1: quarantine has completely, uh you know, stunted a ton of
Speaker 1: the like late risers. Like it used to be, you
Speaker 1: could kind of look through the underclassman every year and
Speaker 1: pick out a bunch of guys that were going to
Speaker 1: be late risers. Um. As you know, teams kind of
Speaker 1: did their homework and figured out like, oh wait, this
Speaker 1: guy should be a first round grade. We just you know,
Speaker 1: we didn't you know, we weren't prepared to evaluate him.
Speaker 1: And now he's a late riser. Right. Well, you know,
Speaker 1: there's Isaiah Wilson, I think the guy, the second offensive
Speaker 1: tackle from Georgia besides Andrew Miller. He might be better
Speaker 1: actually as a pro maybe a better prospect, but h
Speaker 1: and I thought it was a chance he could sneak
Speaker 1: into around one if Swift fell um and so I
Speaker 1: took a swing on that Georgia. But now now I'm
Speaker 1: looking at it, and you know, running backs man at
Speaker 1: the top tier for one through five, there's such little
Speaker 1: separation between talent between one and five. Why would you
Speaker 1: why would you waste a first round pick on one?
Speaker 1: I just can't imagine it. And that amazing like telling
Speaker 1: our our child self, you know this running back thing
Speaker 1: that's so big now, it's just not gonna matter that
Speaker 1: much when you're an adult because the incredible how the
Speaker 1: game is changed. What are your favorite props that you
Speaker 1: have in pocket right now? Drew, So by far make
Speaker 1: or Break for me will be the sixth offensive linemen
Speaker 1: on the off the board for this whole traps. The
Speaker 1: entire thing will down to that, the entire thing. If
Speaker 1: only five offensive linemen go on day one, I could
Speaker 1: win every other bed and I'm still going to have
Speaker 1: a losing day. So that that's uh, that's what I'm
Speaker 1: the most jack before before you before you continue with that,
Speaker 1: you know one of the things and I try to
Speaker 1: be as authentic as possible on this show, which is
Speaker 1: to be authentic. Is It's amazing what I'm getting, what
Speaker 1: I've been saved from this year. I'm not in the
Speaker 1: state of Nevada, so I wasn't able to bet certain
Speaker 1: things where my first instinct was like, oh, I gotta
Speaker 1: bet this, And my first instinct on the offensive lineman
Speaker 1: was actually unders on six and a half's couldn't bet them, um,
Speaker 1: and I'm glad now. The other thing was there was
Speaker 1: a there's a profit circa will two players get drafted
Speaker 1: consecutively from the same song? What was that? What was
Speaker 1: this price? Well? No, so the no here's my My
Speaker 1: instinct at first was the no was ten to one, right,
Speaker 1: and this was when I was in the acuda might
Speaker 1: get you know, they might trade that pick thing, and
Speaker 1: so the no attend to one. I was actually like,
Speaker 1: oh I wish I was in Nevada, could bet the
Speaker 1: tend of one. By the way, within a half an hour,
Speaker 1: the know had gone down to six to one. And
Speaker 1: I wouldn't have bet it anyway at that point because
Speaker 1: at two or three, right, two and three, there's the
Speaker 1: chase young Okuda Kinniella to use a highlight term, that's
Speaker 1: sitting right there. But you're right, like it was the
Speaker 1: send out was priced wrong either way. Yeah, I didn't
Speaker 1: know it opened at ten to one, even at six
Speaker 1: to one. I stared at that a long time. Yesterday,
Speaker 1: I was so funny would both gravitated doors the same one.
Speaker 1: It's because the price, it just didn't make sense, like
Speaker 1: it there's like what is because you look at a
Speaker 1: price like that in the draft market and you're basically
Speaker 1: like they're pricing a short thing, like who is the
Speaker 1: short thing that two teammates go back to back in
Speaker 1: this draft? Like if it's not Chase Young and Okuda,
Speaker 1: Like you really, I mean you think you could see
Speaker 1: Judy and uh and and Rugs go. I guess you
Speaker 1: could see Rugs and maybe another Alabama player. You can
Speaker 1: see what was the linebacker from l s U and
Speaker 1: Jefferson could go in the But but the likelihood there's
Speaker 1: no locks, no lock definitely, So yeah, no, I I saw,
Speaker 1: I saw what you saw, and I honestly I still
Speaker 1: may take a swing at plus six hundred because you know,
Speaker 1: if it's if it's not two three Ohio State, uh,
Speaker 1: you know it's gonna it's gonna it's like it's you basically,
Speaker 1: if if anyone else besides Okuda, and you can and
Speaker 1: I already have Ocuda goes third at it like plus
Speaker 1: two hundred ish, so I can take a swing at
Speaker 1: plus six hundred. Uh, and then if he doesn't go
Speaker 1: third at that point, you it's a lot of ticket.
Speaker 1: Like I just I don't see the balls bouncing in
Speaker 1: a way that is a sure thing that they're going
Speaker 1: to be two teammates back to back. That's that I
Speaker 1: saw thee I saw the tender one and I actually
Speaker 1: stared at it, and I probably texted three or four
Speaker 1: people and I was like, do you have any money
Speaker 1: in your circuit account? I couldn't. Nobody came up with it.
Speaker 1: I was like, all right, But by the time I
Speaker 1: got around there was six and one. I was like,
Speaker 1: all right, maybe I'm not I took, I took, I
Speaker 1: took the screensho out of that. I sent it to
Speaker 1: three different group text I was like, what am I missing? Like?
Speaker 1: What was like something? And I did not talk about
Speaker 1: this before the show. People should know that we did
Speaker 1: not talk about it before the show. Yeah. No, no, no, no.
Speaker 1: But overall, though the um first sure my my most
Speaker 1: overweight on offensive lineman. If this, if six and a
Speaker 1: half gets built some steam to the over I'm very
Speaker 1: hopeful that happens in the next couple of days because
Speaker 1: I would love to come back on under six and
Speaker 1: a half at close to even even odds and cover
Speaker 1: some of my liability on that, and then I can
Speaker 1: have a total total risk free, stress free day one
Speaker 1: that will be fantastic. So that's figures crossed there. Um.
Speaker 1: C J. Henderson shooting up draft boards across the mock
Speaker 1: draft space. Uh he is. His total was sixteen and
Speaker 1: a half I fully subscribed to. Uh. You know his
Speaker 1: four is pick sixteen to the to the Falcons, entirely
Speaker 1: possible that somebody in the tend to and they all
Speaker 1: eleven to sixteen range takes him. He fits with the
Speaker 1: Broncos for a need standpoint, if the top three wide
Speaker 1: receivers go before the Broncos get to pick. So I
Speaker 1: could see, uh, I could see Henderson get get picked
Speaker 1: in in the top sixteen about any percent of the time.
Speaker 1: And there's still some value to his under sixteen and
Speaker 1: a half. You're looking at one forty one right now
Speaker 1: at draft Kings. That's a that is a slam dunk
Speaker 1: because market market some of the market making books have
Speaker 1: him closer in right now for sixteen and a half. Um,
Speaker 1: So that's a that's a great look. Um. And then
Speaker 1: comparison we have on the screen for C. J. Henderson
Speaker 1: is Carlos Rogers. She's I hope his hands are better
Speaker 1: than Carlos Rodgers. And God, that dude drop more picks
Speaker 1: than anybody over the course of career of of course
Speaker 1: of the career I've ever seen anyway, Yeah, his his
Speaker 1: ceiling is probably picked nine. I can see him going
Speaker 1: to the Jaguars at the Jaguars because Jaguars, Jaguars could
Speaker 1: pick any any any position, make you go the most
Speaker 1: most talented void roster in the NFL, and it's not close.
Speaker 1: Uh And you know they just need a stockpile sets
Speaker 1: for next year. Really so um you know that. But
Speaker 1: I Championship like a minute ago, right, It's it's incredible
Speaker 1: that it's it's wild how quick these turnover. Um and
Speaker 1: uh yeah, so that those are those are two. I
Speaker 1: especially like the offensive lineman and C. J. Henderson. Um
Speaker 1: I have uh a we mentioned in the off the top.
Speaker 1: I have a pretty decent amount on uh Okuda pick
Speaker 1: three works first offensive lineman because I think there's a
Speaker 1: reasonable chance that the Giants take him for and if
Speaker 1: the Giants choose not to have the Giants go Simmons
Speaker 1: for whatever reason, you still have a live shot that
Speaker 1: works as the first offensive lineman taken. Um and then uh,
Speaker 1: I liked at the prices that I got them. Herbert
Speaker 1: second quarterback overall at about plus four hundred was was
Speaker 1: a banger last week. And then to a third quarterback
Speaker 1: taken at what used to be plus seven hundred, and uh,
Speaker 1: you know, we're starting to see these, starting to see these.
Speaker 1: I'm closer to Evan odds, which I think is more
Speaker 1: reflecting reality. Um, but those are my those are in
Speaker 1: my pocket right now. And um and then uh, I
Speaker 1: made a couple of plays that I'm not super psyched about.
Speaker 1: We all have those, Yeah, yeah, but out of curiosity, Yeah, okay, Um,
Speaker 1: you know I bet I bet Deep Brown. I bet
Speaker 1: Deep Brown under eight and a half. I didn't get
Speaker 1: a great price. Uh and uh you know at this point,
Speaker 1: I'm you know, I I had kind of felt like
Speaker 1: he was the perfect fit for Carolina before I realized
Speaker 1: that there was a likelihood that Simmons could fall into
Speaker 1: that seventh spot. But so Dee Brown at under eight
Speaker 1: and a half is in my pocket. But I'm I'm
Speaker 1: feeling pretty nervous about that one. Um. And then we
Speaker 1: talked about the Georgia too. I bet over one and
Speaker 1: a half Georgia players. I got that out about minus
Speaker 1: one twenty and uh, even though that's moved in my direction,
Speaker 1: I feel like that's a bad play right now and
Speaker 1: I'm probably gonna buy of that. UM, totally with you
Speaker 1: on that, and I'm gonna do the same, Drew. I
Speaker 1: appreciate it. Man, you have been very generous. Uh. It's
Speaker 1: gonna be fun to look back on these and see
Speaker 1: how we did. And uh, I don't know if you'll
Speaker 1: be live tweeting that night. I know I will be,
Speaker 1: but should be fun. Eight days. Thank you so much.
Speaker 1: Enjoy your day, and uh, hopefully next time we talk
Speaker 1: we can talk about meaningful tennis. Oh yes, thanks, thanks
Speaker 1: you for having me. Man. This is a tough fun
Speaker 1: my man, you did