WEBVTT - Beating the Book: The NFL Draft Betting Special 0:00:03.440 --> 0:00:11.719 Check it down man, Now down Man. It's the Beating 0:00:11.760 --> 0:00:14.520 the Book podcast, Peel Ali and this is what I've 0:00:14.520 --> 0:00:17.800 been looking forward to for quite some time. My NFL 0:00:18.520 --> 0:00:22.759 Draft special from a betting perspective, of course, and help 0:00:22.800 --> 0:00:25.239 me along with it. Drew den Sick you may know 0:00:25.360 --> 0:00:28.960 him from Twitter from the handle at Whale Underscore Kapper, 0:00:29.680 --> 0:00:35.479 the Whale Kapper himself. UM just a great dude, Super insightful, uh, 0:00:35.560 --> 0:00:37.919 super thoughtful when it comes to betting. Have him on 0:00:38.240 --> 0:00:42.560 a numbers game on visa to talk tennis mostly, but 0:00:42.680 --> 0:00:45.879 perhaps football is his number one sport along with tennis. 0:00:46.280 --> 0:00:48.880 UM love talking all sports with him that he has 0:00:49.000 --> 0:00:53.240 expertise in, and certainly the NFL is chief among them. 0:00:53.240 --> 0:00:56.920 As witnessed here in our draft discussion. This was fun. Um. 0:00:56.960 --> 0:00:59.240 I did a previous segment where I went through all 0:00:59.320 --> 0:01:03.360 of my NFL draft props that I'm betting in depth. 0:01:04.240 --> 0:01:06.760 Didn't include that here, but I do refer to them 0:01:06.840 --> 0:01:10.160 during the show. Some of my thinking has actually changed 0:01:10.200 --> 0:01:11.760 on a few of them. So all of these things 0:01:11.760 --> 0:01:14.280 are dynamic. But Drew and I get into that as well. 0:01:14.880 --> 0:01:17.080 I hope you enjoy I think you will enjoy it. 0:01:17.120 --> 0:01:22.280 I'm confident that you will NFL Draft exclusively right here 0:01:22.280 --> 0:01:29.880 with your Densick on the Beating the Book podcast. Enjoy 0:01:29.880 --> 0:01:34.920 it's a numbers game with your host, Jil Alexander. Unto 0:01:35.120 --> 0:01:38.600 us to believe in Adam lives. Yes, it is Gil 0:01:38.640 --> 0:01:43.560 Alexander live from San Francisco. Good morning to you. How 0:01:43.560 --> 0:01:46.280 are you doing. Hope everything's good with you and yours 0:01:46.520 --> 0:01:49.480 staying safe during the global pandemic. We'll trying to keep 0:01:49.480 --> 0:01:53.280 you distracting for the next couple of hours. NFL Draft extravaganza. 0:01:53.360 --> 0:01:56.640 Here with our buddy who usually joins us to talk 0:01:56.720 --> 0:02:00.720 about tennis. You can find him onto it are obviously 0:02:01.120 --> 0:02:03.760 whale Capper, that's what he goes by. He's our buddy, 0:02:03.840 --> 0:02:06.080 Drew Dinstick. Good morning to you, Drew, Thanks so much 0:02:06.080 --> 0:02:08.799 for doing this. Good morning to you, Gil. This is 0:02:08.840 --> 0:02:11.840 fantastic to be on. This is a super exciting that 0:02:11.919 --> 0:02:15.600 we finally get real live sports to handicap. Albeit you know, 0:02:15.639 --> 0:02:19.000 not of the contest variety, but the prop market for 0:02:19.000 --> 0:02:21.440 the NFL Draft is one of my favorite markets to 0:02:21.480 --> 0:02:25.200 get into every year, and this year with the unbelievable 0:02:25.240 --> 0:02:27.839 amount of offerings, you know, everybody is getting into the game. 0:02:27.880 --> 0:02:32.440 It feels like and there's more variety, more arbitrage, more intrigue, 0:02:32.600 --> 0:02:35.079 Like this is one of the better drafts of kind 0:02:35.080 --> 0:02:38.480 of my betting life. And so I'm super fired up 0:02:38.520 --> 0:02:41.600 for this year. Couldn't agree more. Something I've been into 0:02:41.680 --> 0:02:44.240 for years as well, and it just seems like, based 0:02:44.240 --> 0:02:48.040 on the circumstances, everybody's into it this year. As you 0:02:48.080 --> 0:02:50.440 point out, Um, first of all, where are you, by 0:02:50.440 --> 0:02:53.320 the way, it's good to see you outside. Where are you? So? 0:02:53.360 --> 0:02:57.600 I live in Long Beach, California. It's, uh, we finally 0:02:57.600 --> 0:02:59.840 are getting spring here. We have had like this pro 0:03:00.080 --> 0:03:04.639 long protracted cold wet, uh, you know, like winter into springs. 0:03:04.639 --> 0:03:08.720 So it's finally nice. Weather's breaking a little bit of hope. 0:03:09.160 --> 0:03:11.919 You know, California in general is feeling pretty positive about 0:03:12.160 --> 0:03:15.680 the pandemic. So I think, you know, we're we're we're 0:03:15.840 --> 0:03:18.200 rowing the boat in the right direction. Here. I'm in 0:03:18.240 --> 0:03:22.119 San Francisco. We got gorgeous yesterday as well up here. Um, 0:03:22.160 --> 0:03:24.320 but we will talk draft, and let's let me just start. 0:03:24.360 --> 0:03:27.040 You know, all I've been doing the last week or 0:03:27.080 --> 0:03:29.880 so is we've been batting Danny Burke, who's in studio 0:03:29.880 --> 0:03:32.240 there in Las Vegas and I have been batting back props. 0:03:32.280 --> 0:03:36.080 I've given my bets that I've made. But you make 0:03:36.120 --> 0:03:38.040 a great point there right off the top it, and 0:03:38.080 --> 0:03:40.600 so how I want to approach it today is just 0:03:40.720 --> 0:03:45.520 kind of go through how we see the top ten unfolding, 0:03:45.520 --> 0:03:48.280 and from that we could sort of unravel some of 0:03:48.320 --> 0:03:50.200 the some of your bets, some of the things you're 0:03:50.200 --> 0:03:53.000 thinking about. Um. But you start with that initial point. 0:03:53.000 --> 0:03:55.000 I think we should probably emphasize that again I have 0:03:55.080 --> 0:03:57.920 in past days, but let's just say what you said, 0:03:57.920 --> 0:04:02.920 there the opportunities to it in many places. We can't 0:04:02.920 --> 0:04:07.400 emphasize that enough, can we. Now this is there's probably 0:04:07.440 --> 0:04:10.280 only one core tenant to this. I mean, there's a couple. 0:04:10.400 --> 0:04:12.880 This is an information market. It's unique. This isn't the 0:04:12.920 --> 0:04:16.200 same as like a Sunday NFL game. Limits are different, 0:04:16.520 --> 0:04:19.359 the way the market moves is different. Um. And that's 0:04:19.640 --> 0:04:24.080 massively important because there's no don best screen, there's no uh, 0:04:24.120 --> 0:04:26.839 you know, there's no one market making book that is 0:04:26.960 --> 0:04:30.840 really establishing you know, that is doing price discovery right 0:04:30.920 --> 0:04:33.159 like when it comes to an NFL game, Like there's 0:04:33.279 --> 0:04:36.440 pretty clearly there are market leaders that will take bigger 0:04:36.440 --> 0:04:39.839 limits earlier that are out there doing price discovery that 0:04:39.839 --> 0:04:42.279 are sharpening a market before you know, the guys that 0:04:42.320 --> 0:04:44.360 want to lay five six figures on a game can 0:04:44.400 --> 0:04:47.120 get in. And that's not the case at all with 0:04:47.240 --> 0:04:49.839 the you know, these kind of betting props because you 0:04:49.880 --> 0:04:52.200 know that they don't show up on the screen. Uh. 0:04:52.240 --> 0:04:55.360 You can open up three books that you know across 0:04:55.640 --> 0:04:59.440 you know, Vegas offshore, New Jersey and you're gonna see 0:04:59.560 --> 0:05:03.040 prices is all freaking over the place. And it's just 0:05:03.160 --> 0:05:06.400 it's just a much more rigorous manual task to kind 0:05:06.400 --> 0:05:10.320 of uh kind of align um different books and you 0:05:10.320 --> 0:05:12.600 know and kind of balance risk when you have this 0:05:12.720 --> 0:05:16.160 kind of unusual marketplace. Uh. And because of that, that 0:05:16.279 --> 0:05:19.359 presents an enormous amount of value to us as that 0:05:19.440 --> 0:05:21.560 you know, as the betters, because you can pick off 0:05:21.720 --> 0:05:24.560 you know, risk crew bets. Uh, you know pretty much 0:05:24.839 --> 0:05:27.960 throughout the entirety of the cycle, let alone betting into 0:05:28.040 --> 0:05:30.640 numbers that you think will move you know, a substantial 0:05:30.680 --> 0:05:33.719 amount in you know, March and then coming back in 0:05:33.760 --> 0:05:37.200 April and you know, and taking the scalt Gil Alexander 0:05:37.240 --> 0:05:39.400 Drew did sick our guest this so our talk NFL 0:05:39.480 --> 0:05:42.159 Draft with us here at Visa, the sports betting network, 0:05:42.320 --> 0:05:44.400 serious exit of Channel two, O four, Visa dot com, 0:05:44.400 --> 0:05:48.160 the Visa app, Fubo, sling a game plus um and 0:05:48.440 --> 0:05:52.520 the other you know. The other big thing that is 0:05:52.640 --> 0:05:57.000 key with with a draft like this is the notion 0:05:57.279 --> 0:06:01.440 of mock drafts. So our you know, our research so 0:06:01.520 --> 0:06:05.120 to speak, what we're basing our predictions on obviously have 0:06:05.200 --> 0:06:07.760 nothing to do with ball games we've watched in recent 0:06:07.839 --> 0:06:10.800 weeks and in a larger swath of example size, but 0:06:10.920 --> 0:06:15.080 really with a cadre of quote unquote experts that are 0:06:15.320 --> 0:06:19.320 mock drafters, and I'm curious, a how much you rely 0:06:19.440 --> 0:06:23.600 on that? Uh, and then be which are the specific 0:06:23.760 --> 0:06:26.479 authors of mock drafts that you rely on more than others? 0:06:26.520 --> 0:06:31.120 Maybe this is this is an incredible talking point, and 0:06:31.160 --> 0:06:33.919 I'm I want to I'll lay out my thoughts on this, 0:06:34.040 --> 0:06:36.080 but I'm curious because you've been doing this for as 0:06:36.120 --> 0:06:39.560 long long you've been doing the you know, uh, paying 0:06:39.560 --> 0:06:41.919 attention to the space for longer in your opinion, maybe 0:06:41.920 --> 0:06:44.719 even more well informed than I have on this. But 0:06:45.200 --> 0:06:48.719 I at this point in time, I kind of take 0:06:49.120 --> 0:06:53.680 specific experts who have especially broad platforms, you know, especially 0:06:53.839 --> 0:06:56.600 you know, um, you know, wide reach, uh, and kind 0:06:56.600 --> 0:06:59.800 of categorize them in my head in terms of, Okay, 0:06:59.800 --> 0:07:01.680 this guys putting out a mock like where is this 0:07:01.800 --> 0:07:04.440 information coming from? Right, Like a guy like we'll start 0:07:04.480 --> 0:07:06.480 at the top in terms of you know, in terms 0:07:06.520 --> 0:07:11.400 of audience with ESPN, Right, a guy like mel Keeper, Like, 0:07:11.440 --> 0:07:14.120 I'm not looking at his information and I'm not catching 0:07:14.200 --> 0:07:17.200 news bites that mel Keeper is dropping and using that 0:07:17.240 --> 0:07:20.280 to make actionable bets because, in my opinion, a lot 0:07:20.280 --> 0:07:23.440 of his information is sourced from agents. Right. He's a 0:07:23.440 --> 0:07:25.560 lot of his power, a lot of his you know, 0:07:26.320 --> 0:07:29.440 you know resource to the industry. You know it's coming 0:07:29.440 --> 0:07:32.000 from agents, and he's doing solids for you know, for 0:07:32.120 --> 0:07:35.440 various you know parties, and you know that's kind of um, 0:07:35.480 --> 0:07:38.480 you know, his source as far as I can tell you, uh. 0:07:38.560 --> 0:07:41.200 And so for that reason, it's kind of disconnected from 0:07:41.240 --> 0:07:43.440 reality in terms of who what teams are going to 0:07:43.560 --> 0:07:47.320 pick what? Right, he probably has some sources in leagues, circles. 0:07:47.360 --> 0:07:49.760 You know, he's been around for long enough. Um, but 0:07:49.840 --> 0:07:52.560 you know, his kind of main role, his main sources, 0:07:52.600 --> 0:07:56.720 in my opinion, don't really inform you know, a draft process. Similarly, 0:07:56.880 --> 0:08:00.040 mix Shay at ESPN. I feel like he's kind of 0:08:00.600 --> 0:08:03.280 he's he thinks of himself as kind of an NFL 0:08:03.320 --> 0:08:06.360 scout in his own right and is much more involved 0:08:06.360 --> 0:08:09.720 in the process of evaluating talent, trying to identify needs 0:08:09.760 --> 0:08:12.120 for teams, and trying to do his mock in the 0:08:12.160 --> 0:08:14.120 way of, Okay, well, I'm going to find the perfect 0:08:14.160 --> 0:08:17.080 fit for each player for each team, right, And that's 0:08:17.120 --> 0:08:19.160 also not really a way you want to approach this. 0:08:19.240 --> 0:08:21.080 You're you know, we you want to find a guy 0:08:21.160 --> 0:08:23.240 that has that is well connected to a number of 0:08:23.280 --> 0:08:26.720 front offices, well connected to a number of scouts, and 0:08:26.800 --> 0:08:29.160 because his mock draft is going to reflect much more 0:08:29.320 --> 0:08:31.280 a reality of the board once we see it, in 0:08:31.320 --> 0:08:34.000 my opinion, Uh, and you know, of the guys that 0:08:34.080 --> 0:08:35.800 I look for, other guys I look at, I think 0:08:35.880 --> 0:08:38.840 Daniel Jeremiah at the NFL network is at this point 0:08:38.840 --> 0:08:41.160 in time the most well connected. It used to be mayok, 0:08:41.240 --> 0:08:44.800 I thought totally, but nowadays nowadays I think, I think 0:08:45.240 --> 0:08:47.839 Jeremiah has got the got the inside track on a 0:08:47.880 --> 0:08:50.719 lot of this stuff. Um. And then you know, beyond that, 0:08:50.800 --> 0:08:53.640 like the cadre of you know, people who are kind 0:08:53.640 --> 0:08:57.000 of entering the space and you know doing uh, you know, 0:08:57.080 --> 0:08:59.280 their own mock ups. You know, guys from you know Draft, 0:08:59.520 --> 0:09:01.720 you know Draft Network, and you know some of the 0:09:01.760 --> 0:09:04.880 other you know versioning, um, you know writers out there. 0:09:05.000 --> 0:09:07.040 You know they're kind of a mix of of kind 0:09:07.040 --> 0:09:09.920 of taking some information from the info guys and combining 0:09:09.920 --> 0:09:12.720 it with their own scouting and uh. And I think 0:09:12.880 --> 0:09:15.160 you know kind of the Mickshae model of kind of 0:09:15.160 --> 0:09:17.600 putting together a mock where you're informing it based on 0:09:17.720 --> 0:09:19.880 your own film and your own scouting and trying to 0:09:20.080 --> 0:09:23.440 identify team need like for us as handicappers, that's the 0:09:23.520 --> 0:09:27.040 least useful, um, but that's the most prevalent information out there. 0:09:28.040 --> 0:09:30.040 That's I think that's a great breakdown just to uh 0:09:30.080 --> 0:09:33.960 sort of Butcher's your Daniel Jeremiah point Um. I think 0:09:34.000 --> 0:09:36.760 he's a number one to sort of the the football 0:09:37.360 --> 0:09:39.719 draft followers that I respect go that way as well. 0:09:39.720 --> 0:09:41.680 By the way these things can be are are graded 0:09:42.120 --> 0:09:45.160 right in in about years going by, so we can 0:09:45.200 --> 0:09:48.959 actually see the performance of some of these guys from 0:09:49.000 --> 0:09:52.360 the past. And you know, the one sort of counter 0:09:52.520 --> 0:09:56.400 argument I would make to what we're saying oftentimes, so 0:09:56.600 --> 0:09:58.880 I don't want to rely too much on any one person, right, 0:09:58.960 --> 0:10:02.439 No one person is sacred in their predictions. But like 0:10:02.559 --> 0:10:06.680 I love Jeremiah so much, for instance, Drew that when 0:10:06.720 --> 0:10:10.440 he comes out with another iteration of his mock when 0:10:10.520 --> 0:10:14.280 something changes, it is like a it's like a bomb 0:10:14.440 --> 0:10:16.720 dropping in my draft world, where I'm like, oh my god, 0:10:17.080 --> 0:10:19.679 what happened between two point oh and three point oh? 0:10:19.840 --> 0:10:22.280 So perhaps I get more, you know, like I'm more 0:10:22.360 --> 0:10:24.760 rattled by that than I should be, uh if I 0:10:24.800 --> 0:10:27.040 was diversifying a little more. But he's a guy that 0:10:27.040 --> 0:10:28.920 I really rely on. And then there's the old tried 0:10:28.960 --> 0:10:31.199 and true thing for me, which I don't think could 0:10:31.240 --> 0:10:34.240 be overstated enough, which is we hear this from people 0:10:34.240 --> 0:10:38.800 about all you know, following beat writers during standard, standard 0:10:38.880 --> 0:10:42.440 sports seasons, but this is the one time for me 0:10:43.200 --> 0:10:45.480 where I can't get enough of it. Now has to 0:10:45.480 --> 0:10:47.720 be reliable, right because there's a lot of you know, 0:10:47.800 --> 0:10:50.680 Shenanigans out there too. We might have seen that with 0:10:50.720 --> 0:10:54.200 Isaiah Simmons going to the Giants, for instance, earlier this week. 0:10:54.880 --> 0:10:57.000 But I think like for me, just as a guy 0:10:57.120 --> 0:10:59.480 who grew up in Washington, d C. As a Redskins 0:10:59.480 --> 0:11:02.560 fan who still talks to my Redskins peeps all the 0:11:02.640 --> 0:11:04.360 time and I and I'm not a beat reporter for 0:11:04.360 --> 0:11:07.520 the Redskins, but there's something about having the pulse on 0:11:07.720 --> 0:11:10.079 your local team, and that the Chase Young is a 0:11:10.400 --> 0:11:12.440 Chase Young example is a great one for me here 0:11:12.480 --> 0:11:15.080 early on. And we'll see if the Redskins do draft 0:11:15.160 --> 0:11:17.800 Chase Young in the end, but I've never wavered on 0:11:18.000 --> 0:11:20.680 them drafting him. While others have sort of speculated about 0:11:20.720 --> 0:11:24.480 trades that that sort of ebden flowed through the last 0:11:24.520 --> 0:11:27.480 couple of weeks, it's just like, no, they're not. It 0:11:27.600 --> 0:11:29.840 just doesn't feel that way to be based on everything 0:11:29.840 --> 0:11:32.400 I know. So it's a combination. Look, there's no science 0:11:32.440 --> 0:11:37.120 to this other than know who you're relying on and 0:11:37.120 --> 0:11:40.640 that sometimes the biggest names aren't the ones you should 0:11:40.679 --> 0:11:45.320 be relying on the most. What a great point. Uh, 0:11:45.600 --> 0:11:48.240 there's the guy I turned out notifications for back in 0:11:48.280 --> 0:11:52.360 the middle of March who covers the Giants for like 0:11:52.600 --> 0:11:55.480 NJ dot Com. Guy you've never heard of in the 0:11:55.520 --> 0:11:58.160 sports landscape, but he was the first guy that was 0:11:58.200 --> 0:12:00.400 beating the drum with the Giants are gonna take Daniel 0:12:00.480 --> 0:12:02.920 Jones at six last year, And I remembered it because 0:12:02.920 --> 0:12:05.520 I was like, man, this guy really is sure of this, 0:12:05.880 --> 0:12:10.760 Like what yeah, really yeah? And then like by like 0:12:10.840 --> 0:12:13.720 by March thirty one, like you know, he was you know, 0:12:13.880 --> 0:12:16.880 like he was on it in like mid March, and 0:12:16.920 --> 0:12:20.120 by March thirty one, like every other major outlet across 0:12:20.160 --> 0:12:23.040 all of uh, you know, New York, New Jersey was like, yeah, no, 0:12:23.160 --> 0:12:26.120 this Daniel Jones thing seems real. And then sure enough 0:12:26.120 --> 0:12:27.679 he goes off the board at six. And I made 0:12:27.720 --> 0:12:30.800 a pretty decent amount because just kind of speculating because 0:12:30.840 --> 0:12:33.600 this one guy was like so sure uh And so 0:12:33.640 --> 0:12:36.240 I've had him on you know, notifications on just to 0:12:36.280 --> 0:12:39.520 see because you know, I don't think Gentleman has especially 0:12:39.600 --> 0:12:41.760 made up his mind. I do think they're almost certainly 0:12:41.760 --> 0:12:44.800 going to go offensive line. But of these top three 0:12:44.880 --> 0:12:48.200 guys I have these top three guys, I don't think 0:12:48.280 --> 0:12:50.520 they they have made up their mind yet. And so 0:12:50.600 --> 0:12:52.400 I'm still kind of you know, I have a little 0:12:52.400 --> 0:12:54.480 bit uh you know, kind of you know, some some 0:12:54.520 --> 0:12:57.360 positions to kind of cover what I think they're going 0:12:57.400 --> 0:13:00.240 to do. But you know, I think we'll we'll still 0:13:00.280 --> 0:13:01.920 get you know, a tip of the hand here, because 0:13:01.960 --> 0:13:06.240 Gettleman tends to, you know, as whereas some organizations are 0:13:06.520 --> 0:13:10.320 very um cloak and dagger smoke and you know, really 0:13:10.360 --> 0:13:13.800 try to you know, miss miss you know, misdirection. Gettleman 0:13:13.840 --> 0:13:15.800 has always sort of been you know, I'm gonna tell 0:13:15.840 --> 0:13:17.680 them like it is. And you know, once I got 0:13:17.720 --> 0:13:20.120 you know, some information and I say it like that, 0:13:20.360 --> 0:13:22.960 it is what it is. So I think we'll see 0:13:23.000 --> 0:13:24.760 them sip their hand in the next week. But we'll see. 0:13:25.360 --> 0:13:28.640 And and last thing about that Daniel Jones getting drafted 0:13:28.640 --> 0:13:32.160 by the Giants early last year you saw on ESPN 0:13:33.360 --> 0:13:36.480 largely because some of their experts didn't have that happening, right. 0:13:36.520 --> 0:13:38.959 It was the other guys like NJ dot com, as 0:13:38.960 --> 0:13:41.679 you point out, that had Daniel Jones going to the Giants. 0:13:42.200 --> 0:13:45.520 They We actually have tape of the reactions of folks 0:13:45.520 --> 0:13:48.199 on ESPN just go nuts when the Giants draft and 0:13:48.320 --> 0:13:50.160 right like, oh my god, we didn't see this coming 0:13:50.200 --> 0:13:54.480 at all, because it's this weird insular world of our 0:13:54.559 --> 0:13:58.480 experts are predicting something and so therefore all surprise emanates 0:13:58.520 --> 0:14:02.360 from that. It's it's this weird sort of universe anyway. Um, 0:14:02.400 --> 0:14:04.400 By the way, Drew jan sick I said at whale 0:14:04.400 --> 0:14:07.960 Capper earlier. That is incorrect. It's at whale underscore Capper. 0:14:08.760 --> 0:14:11.520 Let's make sure we yes, I don't know where we're going. 0:14:11.559 --> 0:14:17.000 If you go whale Caper could be something entirely different. Oh, 0:14:17.760 --> 0:14:21.440 let's begin with Oh wow, that's maybe that's worth a searching. 0:14:21.480 --> 0:14:24.520 It's all right, uh one and two. Then let's just 0:14:24.560 --> 0:14:26.160 start there. Let's get that out of the way. Are 0:14:26.200 --> 0:14:29.200 we convinced. Are you convinced that it is Joe Burrow 0:14:29.240 --> 0:14:32.160 to the Bengals and Chase hil to the Redskins. Yeah, 0:14:32.200 --> 0:14:36.000 I would. I I talked to somebody who bets in 0:14:36.040 --> 0:14:39.040 the UK, uh, and you know, we were kind of 0:14:39.040 --> 0:14:42.840 truly pricing this yesterday and I gave him prices, you know, 0:14:42.920 --> 0:14:45.720 basically minus five thousand. That Borrow goes one, and I 0:14:45.760 --> 0:14:48.440 think for for Chase Young to go to I have 0:14:48.560 --> 0:14:51.400 it in the minus one thousand range at this point. Um. 0:14:51.440 --> 0:14:54.000 But just kind of like your sentiment of the you know, 0:14:54.040 --> 0:14:56.920 the folks that are well connected to the Redskins. And 0:14:56.960 --> 0:14:59.360 I've heard other people say this besides you, is is 0:14:59.480 --> 0:15:01.840 that Chase Young as a slam dunk there. Um, you 0:15:01.840 --> 0:15:06.240 can still find prices, you know. And again because this 0:15:06.280 --> 0:15:08.160 is such a short turnaround at this point, like we're 0:15:08.200 --> 0:15:11.440 a week away, like and because there's no other sports going, 0:15:11.520 --> 0:15:13.000 it's not like you lock up your bank ll You're 0:15:13.000 --> 0:15:14.440 not gonna be able to get your bets down on 0:15:14.480 --> 0:15:18.880 the NBA playoffs, right like fire fire, fire away, in 0:15:18.920 --> 0:15:21.160 my opinion, in terms of price at this point. And 0:15:21.280 --> 0:15:23.400 you know there are places you know bookmaker will take 0:15:23.440 --> 0:15:25.560 big limits and you know they still have they have 0:15:25.640 --> 0:15:28.600 three props up right at the very end of their uh, 0:15:28.640 --> 0:15:31.160 they're offerings that are all like, well, the Redskins trade 0:15:31.160 --> 0:15:35.080 the number two pick, No, will they take Chase Young? Yes? Uh, 0:15:35.160 --> 0:15:37.200 you know, and then you know otherwise you can take 0:15:37.440 --> 0:15:40.160 you know, set up the exact and in Burrow and 0:15:40.320 --> 0:15:42.800 uh and and Chase Young and still find some value there. 0:15:42.840 --> 0:15:46.760 It's it's a juicy price, but I think that there's 0:15:46.840 --> 0:15:50.280 probably no better. There really is no other kind of 0:15:50.400 --> 0:15:52.600 sure thing as you head into this draft cycle than 0:15:52.880 --> 0:15:55.640 than those guys going on too. Um A couple of 0:15:55.640 --> 0:15:57.320 points there. One, you're right, I mean, it gets to 0:15:57.320 --> 0:15:59.240 your point about, oh, you can bet the Chase Young 0:15:59.280 --> 0:16:01.680 thing and multiple whole waves even at one book alone. 0:16:02.040 --> 0:16:04.840 Also just sort of side note a little disappointed in bookmaker. 0:16:04.880 --> 0:16:06.800 They had some other draft crops up last week and 0:16:06.840 --> 0:16:08.920 the week before, and it kind of disappeared to never 0:16:08.960 --> 0:16:12.840 come back. Um. Yeah, I don't know what they're that's about. Yeah, 0:16:12.920 --> 0:16:16.960 they were taking last I remember from the cycle last year. Um, 0:16:17.040 --> 0:16:22.040 they definitely were slow and kind of tepid in terms 0:16:22.040 --> 0:16:24.360 of putting their foot into the water in terms of offering. 0:16:24.880 --> 0:16:28.040 But once you got to the couple of days before, 0:16:28.400 --> 0:16:31.600 they were taking pretty big limits, bigger limits than you 0:16:31.640 --> 0:16:34.440 could get at some of the other offshore offerings. So um, 0:16:34.440 --> 0:16:36.840 worth keeping an eye on them because they'll throw some 0:16:36.840 --> 0:16:39.040 stuff back up, I bet, and they'll give you a 0:16:39.080 --> 0:16:42.080 pretty healthy shot at it um as we get closer. 0:16:42.680 --> 0:16:44.880 A great point about that, all right. So I was 0:16:44.880 --> 0:16:49.120 gonna jump ahead to number four here before really diving 0:16:49.160 --> 0:16:53.760 into three, five and beyond. Um, maybe I should anyway, 0:16:53.760 --> 0:16:55.840 But you said something there about four and the Giants, 0:16:56.120 --> 0:17:00.080 which I had to kind of written off as not 0:17:00.080 --> 0:17:02.080 not as much of a lock of Burrow to the 0:17:02.120 --> 0:17:04.719 Bengals and Young to the Redskins. Certainly not and certainly 0:17:04.720 --> 0:17:08.080 not a specific player. But I kind of had decided 0:17:08.200 --> 0:17:10.360 this is not just me decide it based on all 0:17:10.440 --> 0:17:13.160 the mocks that this is an offensive tackle. You still 0:17:13.280 --> 0:17:15.840 think it's an offensive tackle or how sure of that 0:17:15.920 --> 0:17:20.080 are you? Yeah? No, I put a good, good example 0:17:20.119 --> 0:17:23.160 you can if you wanted to try to dial in 0:17:23.200 --> 0:17:25.800 on the Giants. There are markets for will they take 0:17:25.800 --> 0:17:28.879 an offensive or defensive player? And I think the offensive 0:17:28.880 --> 0:17:31.680 player beyond just the fact that it makes the most 0:17:31.720 --> 0:17:34.480 sense given where they've invested their top you know, their 0:17:34.520 --> 0:17:36.640 top investments in the draft in the last two years, 0:17:36.640 --> 0:17:38.960 and a young quarterback and a young running back like 0:17:39.119 --> 0:17:41.800 Gettleman needs these guys to succeed or he's no longer 0:17:41.800 --> 0:17:44.520 going to be the Giants GM. So taking you know, 0:17:44.560 --> 0:17:47.320 a top tier taking the best tackle off the board, 0:17:47.800 --> 0:17:51.800 um is kind of you know is you know? And 0:17:51.800 --> 0:17:53.800 again I don't want to go back and lead it 0:17:53.840 --> 0:17:56.040 too well. These guys should do this, so they will, 0:17:56.160 --> 0:17:57.879 because that will get you in deep trouble if you 0:17:57.960 --> 0:18:01.359 put too much in that mindset. Um. But you know, 0:18:01.760 --> 0:18:05.439 you know, you know, Gettleman invested a ton, and I 0:18:05.440 --> 0:18:08.480 guess this week in some of the interviews some of 0:18:08.480 --> 0:18:10.840 the comments he has made, he basically you know, has 0:18:10.920 --> 0:18:13.760 kind of pointed to the fact that they invested a 0:18:13.800 --> 0:18:16.399 ton of their draft capital through free agency into the 0:18:16.400 --> 0:18:19.680 defensive side of the ball. UH, and he be laboring 0:18:19.720 --> 0:18:22.120 that point. I think was him tipping his hand out 0:18:22.200 --> 0:18:24.639 bit in terms of how they intend to allocate their 0:18:24.720 --> 0:18:27.800 draft capital towards, UH, the offensive line and some of 0:18:27.800 --> 0:18:29.840 the other uh, you know, some of the other holes 0:18:29.880 --> 0:18:32.600 that still exist on that team. Granted, best player available, 0:18:32.640 --> 0:18:35.360 maybe a guy like Simmons. UM. You know, people may 0:18:35.440 --> 0:18:38.520 want Simmons to end up in New York just because 0:18:38.560 --> 0:18:40.840 he's such a dynamic talent. He could be an exciting 0:18:40.880 --> 0:18:44.040 guy of cover uh from you know, from a media standpoint. 0:18:44.119 --> 0:18:47.000 But you know, I think the boring pick and quote 0:18:47.040 --> 0:18:49.359 unquote boring pick in terms of taking one of the 0:18:49.400 --> 0:18:52.000 best offensive lineman is is where they end up going. 0:18:52.680 --> 0:18:55.080 Prices around are kind of in the minus one fifty 0:18:55.200 --> 0:18:58.400 range for taking an offensive player. I would have made 0:18:58.440 --> 0:19:00.360 it in the minus two fifty range. So I think 0:19:00.400 --> 0:19:02.840 there is some pretty good value still on betting Giants 0:19:02.880 --> 0:19:06.240 take an offensive player. UM. And then it comes down 0:19:06.280 --> 0:19:09.919 to how they evaluate these three guys that are at 0:19:09.960 --> 0:19:13.760 the top of the tackle market. It's you know, I 0:19:14.320 --> 0:19:18.280 definitely hear from you know, scouts, from evaluators that they think, 0:19:18.960 --> 0:19:21.560 you know, that there's a clear one in uh, you know, 0:19:21.600 --> 0:19:23.920 and a guy like or you know, a clear one 0:19:23.960 --> 0:19:26.080 in terms of ceiling, and a guy like Beckton, and 0:19:26.160 --> 0:19:28.600 a clear one in terms of floor, and a guy 0:19:28.680 --> 0:19:33.320 like like Willis. But then you know the measurables, which 0:19:33.480 --> 0:19:36.600 is kind of Ben Gettleman's tailtale throughout his entire run 0:19:36.640 --> 0:19:38.399 as the GM like he just falls in love with 0:19:38.400 --> 0:19:40.720 guys who pop off the numbers at the combine. And 0:19:40.960 --> 0:19:43.960 that's pretty clearly works. So if I had to take 0:19:44.119 --> 0:19:46.919 one stab, it would be works. But uh, you know, 0:19:47.000 --> 0:19:48.960 we we still need to see Gettleman tip his hand 0:19:48.960 --> 0:19:51.200 on this one, I think, all right. And for those 0:19:51.200 --> 0:19:52.879 are wonder like, why did you go from two to 0:19:52.960 --> 0:19:57.439 four there? Uh, the reason is because the Giants being 0:19:57.880 --> 0:20:00.680 locked into an offensive line. And again, unless you believe 0:20:00.680 --> 0:20:03.480 the Simmons stuff, but being locked into an offensive lineman 0:20:03.560 --> 0:20:07.640 allows for all the speculation of what's to come. Um 0:20:07.880 --> 0:20:10.720 drew their pesky commercials here, so I'd rather than jump 0:20:10.760 --> 0:20:13.560 into it right now. We'll we'll do it after the break. 0:20:13.600 --> 0:20:15.800 But when we do come back, we'll talk to Drew 0:20:15.840 --> 0:20:19.000 Dinsick about what will the Lions do at number three? 0:20:19.040 --> 0:20:21.720 Because that's really where the draft begins. If you're to 0:20:21.720 --> 0:20:25.520 believe the borough Um Chase Young exact at the top. 0:20:26.000 --> 0:20:28.600 Do the Lions take Jeoffrey Akuta, a guy that we've 0:20:28.640 --> 0:20:31.040 said on the show here on a Numbers game. If 0:20:31.040 --> 0:20:34.359 you're playing the draft game Lions, you probably could draft 0:20:34.440 --> 0:20:38.160 him a little later. Um. But do they love him 0:20:38.200 --> 0:20:40.359 so much that they would take him obviously to fill 0:20:40.880 --> 0:20:43.959 the Darius Slay absence? Or do they make a trade 0:20:44.119 --> 0:20:46.400 and if so, who do they make it with? Are 0:20:46.440 --> 0:20:48.800 the Dolphins of the team to trade down after failing 0:20:48.840 --> 0:20:52.600 to tank? Are the Chargers so interested in one of 0:20:52.640 --> 0:20:55.240 those two guys to or Herbert that they would be 0:20:55.240 --> 0:20:57.879 willing to trade up? All of these questions that Drew's 0:20:57.880 --> 0:20:59.960 thoughts and more will to be a run on offensive 0:21:00.080 --> 0:21:03.160 lineman early and then wide receivers after that. Drew dinsa 0:21:03.240 --> 0:21:06.000 coming back on a Numbers Game at Visa the Sports 0:21:06.000 --> 0:21:08.040 Betting Network, Preston Johnson to come as well, and we'll 0:21:08.040 --> 0:21:10.119 throw up my draft props at some phere here on 0:21:10.119 --> 0:21:12.639 the show as well. Coming back and f l Draft 0:21:12.680 --> 0:21:14.800 on a Numbers Game and Visa. Welcome back to a 0:21:14.960 --> 0:21:20.280 Numbers Game with Jill Alexander back on the Numbers game 0:21:20.359 --> 0:21:24.080 GIL Alexander live from San Francisco, where sports betting analytics 0:21:24.160 --> 0:21:26.679 live here at Visa the Sports Betting Network. By the way, 0:21:26.720 --> 0:21:31.600 join us for the Visa twenty Draft Special live next Thursday, 0:21:31.640 --> 0:21:33.840 April so, eight days away now at eight p m 0:21:33.880 --> 0:21:37.680 Eastern five pm Pacific. Our draft bet casting experts Matt Humans, 0:21:37.680 --> 0:21:40.959 Michael Lombardi, Brent Musburger, Jonathan von Tobel and other special 0:21:40.960 --> 0:21:44.880 guests landalize the draft from a unique betting perspective. Of course, 0:21:44.880 --> 0:21:47.560 they'll track all the available all the available props, that is, 0:21:48.400 --> 0:21:50.679 as each selection is made, and alert you when they cash, 0:21:50.720 --> 0:21:52.960 of course, all through a betting prism. Check out the 0:21:53.000 --> 0:21:57.160 Visa Draft Special Live Thursday a p m. Eastern five 0:21:57.160 --> 0:22:00.920 pm Pacific, right here on Visa and the Sports Betting Network. 0:22:00.960 --> 0:22:03.760 My guest Drew dinsit kind enough to spend the hours 0:22:04.200 --> 0:22:07.479 the hour rather with us talking NFL Draft. So number 0:22:07.520 --> 0:22:09.720 three then, Drew, let's get right to it. The Lions 0:22:09.760 --> 0:22:12.600 are sitting there, Darius Lay no longer with the team. 0:22:13.000 --> 0:22:15.800 Jeffrey Akuta from Ohio State is sitting out there. What 0:22:16.000 --> 0:22:20.959 do you do? What do you do? Oh? Man? Um? 0:22:21.920 --> 0:22:27.720 And if I'm in that room, I am. I'm I've 0:22:27.760 --> 0:22:31.159 been preparing to trade this pick all winter. Uh, and 0:22:31.240 --> 0:22:34.320 now I'm looking around wondering, you know, if I'm going 0:22:34.400 --> 0:22:36.840 to get an offer, if we're gonna be able to 0:22:36.880 --> 0:22:39.199 evaluate the offer in time, or if we're just going 0:22:39.240 --> 0:22:41.080 to have to end up, you know, taking the best 0:22:41.119 --> 0:22:43.760 player or you know, top player on our board phill 0:22:43.800 --> 0:22:45.440 a need even though he may not be the best 0:22:45.440 --> 0:22:49.280 player available. That's kind of the quandry they find themselves in. Uh. 0:22:49.320 --> 0:22:51.520 And this happens year and year out where you have 0:22:51.600 --> 0:22:53.679 a team that's you know, kind of on the cusp 0:22:53.720 --> 0:22:56.840 of the shore fire, no doubt talent in this case, 0:22:56.920 --> 0:23:00.199 the top two being Burro and Chase Young. Uh. And 0:23:00.720 --> 0:23:02.439 you know, you think, okay, well, this should be a 0:23:02.480 --> 0:23:04.760 power position for these guys, right like, they should have 0:23:04.880 --> 0:23:06.480 a lot of leverage. They should have a lot of 0:23:06.520 --> 0:23:09.119 chips because there are teams behind them, and you know, 0:23:09.160 --> 0:23:12.320 picks five and six notably that absolutely have a need 0:23:12.359 --> 0:23:15.439 at quarterback for the future where the as the Lions 0:23:15.480 --> 0:23:17.840 are well set up in that standpoint, and so you 0:23:17.880 --> 0:23:20.719 should be able to leverage those teams into giving up 0:23:20.720 --> 0:23:23.919 some assets getting some extra picks out of this because 0:23:23.960 --> 0:23:26.600 guess what, the lines have more holes than just cornerback. 0:23:26.880 --> 0:23:28.760 They have lots of whole life. This is a team 0:23:28.840 --> 0:23:31.840 that is devoid of talent on the defensive side of 0:23:31.880 --> 0:23:34.920 the football. Uh and uh, you know this is this 0:23:35.000 --> 0:23:38.280 would be the type of time to you know, flip 0:23:38.320 --> 0:23:41.560 this pick, get some assets. But I don't know, I 0:23:41.600 --> 0:23:45.120 have a very very you know, a very very skeptical 0:23:45.200 --> 0:23:47.600 viewpoint of how likely trades are going to be in 0:23:47.600 --> 0:23:53.639 this draft. I think it's it's it's such a complicated, 0:23:53.800 --> 0:23:57.520 like such a hectic, complicated ten minutes when you're getting 0:23:57.560 --> 0:24:00.840 offers and evaluating you know, the earth and what you'll 0:24:00.880 --> 0:24:03.199 do with those picks, and you know, it's you know, 0:24:03.600 --> 0:24:05.879 if they had gotten its sorted out in a couple 0:24:05.880 --> 0:24:08.879 of days beforehand, that would be one thing. But to 0:24:09.200 --> 0:24:12.160 expect it to happen in the moment, I think is 0:24:12.160 --> 0:24:15.840 is pretty you know, pretty pretty tough, ask um. And 0:24:15.880 --> 0:24:18.560 that's do you think Drew that the that the nature 0:24:19.000 --> 0:24:20.320 you know, we you and I were talking about this 0:24:20.359 --> 0:24:22.639 allfair a little. Do you think the nature of of 0:24:22.680 --> 0:24:24.960 the pandemic and the fact that we're all doing this 0:24:25.119 --> 0:24:29.639 remotely this year makes it even more likely that in 0:24:29.720 --> 0:24:33.520 action will rule the day in action. Yeah. No, I 0:24:33.560 --> 0:24:36.400 think there's a number of hypotheses that hold water, and 0:24:36.440 --> 0:24:38.720 one of them for sure is that you'll have fewer trades. 0:24:38.760 --> 0:24:40.760 And I think it's born entirely out of the fact 0:24:40.840 --> 0:24:44.040 that draft rooms will be spread across, you know, spread 0:24:44.040 --> 0:24:47.240 across the country, everybody contributing remotely, and you know, it's 0:24:47.359 --> 0:24:50.800 it's I still think that it's not out of the 0:24:50.840 --> 0:24:53.440 realm of possibility that a team like the Chargers knows 0:24:53.520 --> 0:24:55.520 the guy they want is also at the top of 0:24:55.520 --> 0:24:57.760 the draft board for the for the Dolphins, and that 0:24:57.880 --> 0:24:59.879 they may give up the King's Ransom to move up 0:24:59.880 --> 0:25:02.920 to three. With the lines, that's still a realistic possibility 0:25:02.960 --> 0:25:05.240 in that scenario, I do not expect that they would 0:25:05.240 --> 0:25:06.960 go up for Herbert. I mean, for for two, I 0:25:07.000 --> 0:25:10.200 would expect they go up for Herbert. Uh. And that's 0:25:10.240 --> 0:25:14.240 the one kind of outstanding scenario that I have in 0:25:14.280 --> 0:25:16.560 the back of my head that I'm kind of catching against. 0:25:17.160 --> 0:25:19.439 But I do at the end of the day, I 0:25:19.480 --> 0:25:21.280 don't think that they're going to be able to have 0:25:21.400 --> 0:25:25.240 enough assets to trump whatever Miami can offer. Miami has 0:25:25.400 --> 0:25:27.880 so much draft capital this year, they are in such 0:25:27.920 --> 0:25:30.639 a power position they can pretty much squash whatever the 0:25:30.720 --> 0:25:33.840 Chargers offer, which I think de incentivizes the Chargers from 0:25:33.880 --> 0:25:36.600 you even trying to offer. Uh. And I think the 0:25:36.640 --> 0:25:40.120 Lions end up taking taking Okuda, whether or not he's 0:25:40.200 --> 0:25:43.080 the player, the right player at that spot, or just 0:25:43.160 --> 0:25:45.600 fills the glaring hole that is created by the move 0:25:45.640 --> 0:25:48.199 of Sleigh. I do think that's where they end up. 0:25:49.200 --> 0:25:51.439 I I land on the same thing with that. You 0:25:51.440 --> 0:25:53.439 and I are sympatico there. I just think the Lions 0:25:53.520 --> 0:25:55.359 end up taking Occuda. And by the way, if the 0:25:55.440 --> 0:25:59.520 Chargers do trade up to draft Herbert or two, but 0:25:59.560 --> 0:26:02.280 I'm with you, probably would be Herbert if they did that. 0:26:02.280 --> 0:26:06.439 That goes against everything that Anthony Lynn has been saying 0:26:06.560 --> 0:26:09.640 to date, which is not Tyrod Taylor is our guy. 0:26:10.359 --> 0:26:14.520 But we know it's lying season, so uh, anybody to 0:26:14.640 --> 0:26:16.680 their word at this point, Anthony Lynn or otherwise. I've 0:26:16.680 --> 0:26:19.520 got to take a break here, Drew will come back. 0:26:19.880 --> 0:26:22.120 I do want to talk about how what you feel 0:26:22.160 --> 0:26:24.520 the Dolphins and Chargers then, in fact, do at five 0:26:24.640 --> 0:26:27.920 or six do they just stand bad? Uh? And are 0:26:27.960 --> 0:26:30.600 the Chargers if we know that about Anthony Lynn saying 0:26:30.600 --> 0:26:33.960 that about Tyrod Taylor, are they absolutely going to pick 0:26:34.000 --> 0:26:36.439 a quarterback. We've kind of penciled in to her Herbert 0:26:36.440 --> 0:26:38.920 and Nanny order there at five or six, maybe Dot 0:26:39.000 --> 0:26:41.200 coming back Drew Dinsick NFL Draft right here in a 0:26:41.280 --> 0:26:43.919 numbers game at Basently Sports Betting Network. Welcome back to 0:26:44.119 --> 0:26:49.640 a numbers game with Jill Alexander. Quick Picks Classic offers 0:26:49.720 --> 0:26:52.800 real body matchups of pro sports superstars from their greatest seasons, 0:26:52.840 --> 0:26:55.240 playable and quick Picks head to head par lay game. 0:26:55.560 --> 0:26:59.320 New NBA matchups posted every hour and for those asking, 0:26:59.440 --> 0:27:03.400 NFL games will launch later this week. 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So, uh, 0:27:56.640 --> 0:27:59.560 if the Giants then go with an offensive line and 0:27:59.600 --> 0:28:04.000 at four or whether it's Tristan Worths from Iowa or whomever, 0:28:04.680 --> 0:28:07.200 because it will be a bit of a offensive tackle 0:28:07.280 --> 0:28:11.680 heavy top ten, I'm guessing what then, ultimately do you 0:28:11.760 --> 0:28:14.640 think happens with the Dolphins and the Chargers at five 0:28:14.760 --> 0:28:17.240 or sick? And just before the break, I just sort 0:28:17.240 --> 0:28:20.560 of threw out the thing about do we know that 0:28:20.640 --> 0:28:24.720 the Chargers are absolutely drafting a quarterback? Because I mean, 0:28:24.800 --> 0:28:27.119 Cam still out there right. I was asking Michael Lombardi 0:28:27.119 --> 0:28:29.520 about this yesterday, like what did they take a tackle? 0:28:30.119 --> 0:28:32.199 And then you know, like then they have Cam? Like 0:28:32.240 --> 0:28:35.359 are they not a top five talent you know, talent 0:28:35.440 --> 0:28:37.320 laden team in the NFL at that point, I don't 0:28:37.320 --> 0:28:39.200 know what are your thoughts of five or six, and 0:28:39.200 --> 0:28:47.200 then there's two by the to and the Dolphins have 0:28:47.320 --> 0:28:51.320 been this kind of media narrative that's gone on for 0:28:51.440 --> 0:28:54.840 now what six months, you know, taking you know, going 0:28:54.880 --> 0:28:58.400 back to the Dolphins getting their clocks cleaned by the Ravens. 0:28:58.520 --> 0:29:00.800 I feel like people were like up thinking for Tua, 0:29:01.280 --> 0:29:05.400 thanking for Ta. Ta was the number one on draft 0:29:05.440 --> 0:29:09.320 boards last April, right like he was expected to kind 0:29:09.360 --> 0:29:12.800 of be the guy in number one Heisman favorite, right like, 0:29:12.880 --> 0:29:15.640 you know, there there's there's a lot of legacy here 0:29:15.840 --> 0:29:18.320 that I think has carried perception that he is still 0:29:18.800 --> 0:29:22.320 the supervaluable asset in the face of a lot of 0:29:22.360 --> 0:29:25.120 evidence that teams are not going to take a chance 0:29:25.200 --> 0:29:28.240 on him given his injury status. I don't think it 0:29:28.280 --> 0:29:31.480 can be understated how significant this injury was, and I 0:29:31.520 --> 0:29:34.360 don't think that the smoke that has come kind of 0:29:34.600 --> 0:29:39.280 been you know, uh easy, you can't you can't miss 0:29:39.320 --> 0:29:42.320 it if you're following the NFL media, you know, this 0:29:42.400 --> 0:29:44.680 last couple of weeks, like you know, teams are really 0:29:45.000 --> 0:29:47.680 you know, skeptical about how serious this injury is, how 0:29:47.760 --> 0:29:49.640 long he's going to be able to play in the NFL, 0:29:50.080 --> 0:29:53.920 and you know, are those evaluations correct. That's not what 0:29:53.960 --> 0:29:56.240 we're here to talk about, Like we're here to talk about, 0:29:56.440 --> 0:29:59.600 you know, this big enough injury to scare teams from 0:29:59.600 --> 0:30:02.480 really can pulling the trigger on a guy that otherwise 0:30:02.600 --> 0:30:04.840 clearly has the talent to be a you know, franchise 0:30:04.920 --> 0:30:08.160 quarterback in the top five pick um, you add a 0:30:08.200 --> 0:30:11.400 little bit of kind of uh, you know, a little 0:30:11.400 --> 0:30:14.880 bit more intrigue to this question in this equation when 0:30:14.880 --> 0:30:18.360 you start to see it here, evaluations from players like 0:30:18.400 --> 0:30:21.200 Gil Brand from you know, from personnel guys like Gil 0:30:21.240 --> 0:30:24.080 Brand from you know, guys who are connected to the Dolphins, 0:30:24.360 --> 0:30:26.640 you know, connected to their general manager, who are like, now, 0:30:26.720 --> 0:30:29.160 this guy is more in the bill parcels mold of 0:30:29.240 --> 0:30:33.040 general manager. He wants a tall, kind of measurable quarterback 0:30:33.120 --> 0:30:35.360 that they can mold, you know, And that's a justin 0:30:35.440 --> 0:30:38.880 Herbert like pretty clearly. And so there's a lot of signs, 0:30:38.920 --> 0:30:41.440 there's a lot of breadcrumbs here that tell you that 0:30:41.520 --> 0:30:45.320 the Dolphins you know, prefer Herbert Um. And in which 0:30:45.360 --> 0:30:47.640 case you know that you have to wonder if any 0:30:47.720 --> 0:30:50.240 of you know, you know, if any of the uh 0:30:50.280 --> 0:30:53.080 you know, leverage that the Dolphins have over the Chargers 0:30:53.200 --> 0:30:55.000 is really to get you know, they want to get 0:30:55.040 --> 0:30:58.120 their guy and Herbert as opposed to you know, just 0:30:58.160 --> 0:31:00.280 taking we know, we don't really care. We wait at 0:31:00.280 --> 0:31:02.360 Herbert and two on the same level, and we'll take 0:31:02.360 --> 0:31:05.080 either one of those. So, UM, I would say that 0:31:05.840 --> 0:31:08.800 there is enough smoke and enough bread crumbs here for 0:31:08.880 --> 0:31:12.320 me to have gotten involved earlier when the prices were 0:31:12.680 --> 0:31:16.360 you know, we're completely upside down on this. Um. Less 0:31:16.360 --> 0:31:19.680 than a week ago, you could have gotten Herbert as 0:31:19.720 --> 0:31:22.680 the second quarterback overall in the plus three hundred plus 0:31:22.680 --> 0:31:25.160 four hundred range. You could have gotten To as the 0:31:25.200 --> 0:31:28.600 third quarterback overall in the plus eight hundred range. Um. 0:31:28.680 --> 0:31:31.080 You know, that's basically telling you that there was like 0:31:31.120 --> 0:31:33.800 an eight percent chance that you were to get to 0:31:34.200 --> 0:31:37.480 and then Herbert. And as you look at it now, 0:31:37.520 --> 0:31:39.280 with the information you have in front of you, does 0:31:39.320 --> 0:31:42.040 that sound even remotely close to reality? I don't think. 0:31:42.640 --> 0:31:48.680 I mean, yeah, best, um, and so, uh you know, 0:31:48.760 --> 0:31:50.600 I go, I kind of stick to a couple of 0:31:50.680 --> 0:31:52.800 tenants that I think, you know, I've kind of kept 0:31:52.840 --> 0:31:55.280 me out of trouble and drafts the last couple of 0:31:55.400 --> 0:31:58.680 years had got me into trouble in drafts previous year's betting. 0:31:58.880 --> 0:32:01.320 And that's you know, when you have kind of a 0:32:01.360 --> 0:32:03.360 guy that you feel like it is going to be 0:32:03.360 --> 0:32:05.360 good in the NFL and you kind of in your mind, 0:32:05.400 --> 0:32:08.000 have you know him at a certain tier or a 0:32:08.000 --> 0:32:11.440 certain rating UM, and then you know there is any 0:32:11.520 --> 0:32:14.480 kind of an injury red flag, These guys fall like 0:32:14.760 --> 0:32:18.000 stones when it comes to draft day. And you can 0:32:18.040 --> 0:32:21.560 point to a number of kind of the best bets 0:32:21.560 --> 0:32:24.440 that I've made in the draft prop market last two years, 0:32:24.800 --> 0:32:28.160 and it was literally finding smoke from more than one 0:32:28.240 --> 0:32:31.080 team on an injury that a guy you know that 0:32:31.080 --> 0:32:33.920 that they had red flag the guy for injury, and 0:32:34.080 --> 0:32:38.560 you know that that sort of mindset becomes viral. Uh 0:32:38.600 --> 0:32:41.479 you know, no pun intended, uh and uh you know, 0:32:41.760 --> 0:32:43.680 and the next thing you know, you know, you have 0:32:43.760 --> 0:32:45.600 everyone in the in the league is afraid to touch 0:32:45.640 --> 0:32:47.920 the guy. And you know, so I think to A 0:32:48.120 --> 0:32:51.600 absolutely falls into that category right now, which I think 0:32:51.680 --> 0:32:54.000 leads the Dolphins to making the safer pick with Justin 0:32:54.040 --> 0:32:56.760 Herbert at five. UM. Again, you know this is I'm 0:32:56.800 --> 0:33:00.280 not saying it's more likely than fifty fifty um. But 0:33:00.640 --> 0:33:03.200 certainly the way that this has been priced over the 0:33:03.280 --> 0:33:06.800 last month has been, uh, you know, completely upside down 0:33:06.840 --> 0:33:09.600 in my opinion. So you do think in the end, 0:33:09.640 --> 0:33:11.880 Dolphins with two. That's what I'm Harry. I don't know, 0:33:11.880 --> 0:33:14.320 I'm thinking her I think, I mean, I mean Herbert. 0:33:14.800 --> 0:33:17.680 I think I think I think they go Herbert. And 0:33:17.720 --> 0:33:20.400 some of that is is speculation based on the general 0:33:20.440 --> 0:33:22.880 manager and his connections to the Bill Parcels tree and 0:33:22.880 --> 0:33:26.080 the type of quarterbacks that they tend to uh, they 0:33:26.120 --> 0:33:28.280 tend to score higher on, so that some of that 0:33:28.320 --> 0:33:31.200 is speculative. Um, But I think her you know, I 0:33:31.200 --> 0:33:34.760 think Herbert at five is has has legs. You made 0:33:34.840 --> 0:33:36.880 such a great point off air, because I you know, 0:33:36.880 --> 0:33:39.800 when we're talking about a guy dropping, and obviously the 0:33:39.800 --> 0:33:42.680 most famous modern day example is Aaron Rodgers dropping all 0:33:42.720 --> 0:33:45.440 the way down into the twenties when he came out 0:33:45.520 --> 0:33:47.400 of school. And I'm not saying two is going to 0:33:47.480 --> 0:33:49.040 go that far down. But you made a great point 0:33:49.040 --> 0:33:51.800 of fair which is sometimes it's just as simple as 0:33:52.720 --> 0:33:54.720 the reason he drops is not because people don't like 0:33:54.720 --> 0:33:58.440 that individual, just like they haven't prepped to draft a quarterback. 0:33:58.480 --> 0:34:00.640 They've talked about all these other player years for months 0:34:00.640 --> 0:34:02.880 on the lead up, and so that player just by 0:34:03.040 --> 0:34:07.640 default kind of trickles down. Um. I think it's as 0:34:07.720 --> 0:34:10.000 simple and as good a point on that. We don't 0:34:10.000 --> 0:34:11.759 often hear that in mainstream meeting where it's like, yeah, 0:34:11.760 --> 0:34:14.640 I just didn't really plan on this is happening. We 0:34:14.719 --> 0:34:17.520 gotta take, you know, it's like it's that stupid one 0:34:17.560 --> 0:34:19.680 more break here. Drew will come back because I do 0:34:19.800 --> 0:34:22.000 want to hone in on six and then will the 0:34:22.080 --> 0:34:27.759 offensive tackle run continue? I guess if number four was one, 0:34:28.320 --> 0:34:30.640 will there be a couple more here coming off the board? 0:34:30.719 --> 0:34:34.200 Drew Den Sick at Whale Underscore Capper. We'll talk about 0:34:34.200 --> 0:34:36.759 his podcast as well. We'll plug that coming back from 0:34:36.800 --> 0:34:39.240 the break right here at a numbers game on Visa 0:34:39.600 --> 0:34:42.320 these Sports Betting that we welcome back to a numbers 0:34:42.360 --> 0:34:46.359 game with you know, Alexander, it is a numbers game 0:34:46.480 --> 0:34:50.560 Bill Alexander Live from San Francisco. Drew Den Sick at 0:34:50.600 --> 0:34:55.000 Whale Underscore Capper Live from U the outdoors and beautiful 0:34:55.000 --> 0:34:58.080 Long Beach, California. I said something right before the break, 0:34:58.160 --> 0:35:00.279 which was actually there you go take a big three. 0:35:01.080 --> 0:35:05.560 I love that old cartoon victory signal, Um, I said 0:35:05.600 --> 0:35:07.640 before the break, and I was talking about you actually 0:35:07.640 --> 0:35:12.000 saying it during the prior break, about this notion of 0:35:12.080 --> 0:35:14.640 sometimes when a player falls, it's just kind of as 0:35:14.680 --> 0:35:17.880 simple as we really hadn't been talking about him. We 0:35:17.920 --> 0:35:19.880 haven't done our due diligence. You wanted to flush that 0:35:19.920 --> 0:35:24.480 out a little more as it pertains to draft. Absolutely, 0:35:24.560 --> 0:35:27.200 And you know we were on the Chargers and your 0:35:27.239 --> 0:35:31.399 points were very sound in the previous segment, like they 0:35:31.400 --> 0:35:34.839 have gone above and beyond in terms of padding. Uh, 0:35:34.880 --> 0:35:37.399 you know, to Rod Taylor on the back, I mean 0:35:37.800 --> 0:35:43.239 to a degree that seems ridiculous. No one, no one 0:35:43.239 --> 0:35:47.560 loves Rod Taylor that much, even Anthony Lynno. Can you know, 0:35:47.640 --> 0:35:51.759 can can you know? You know, professors love to whatever 0:35:51.840 --> 0:35:55.000 degree he wants. But I don't know that he's fooling anyone. Um. 0:35:55.040 --> 0:35:57.480 And you're right also, and that the Chargers have a 0:35:57.560 --> 0:36:01.480 team outside of quarterback that is rostered to compete for 0:36:01.520 --> 0:36:06.200 a championship, Like this team is stacked, especially on defense, 0:36:06.760 --> 0:36:11.160 and like they only really have the one hole at quarterback. Uh, 0:36:11.280 --> 0:36:13.000 you know, maybe you know the offensive line is not 0:36:13.040 --> 0:36:14.879 great they can use some help on the offensive line. 0:36:14.880 --> 0:36:16.880 And clearly this is a draft where you know, in 0:36:16.880 --> 0:36:19.200 the top ten you can take an elite talent and 0:36:19.400 --> 0:36:22.000 for for the offensive line, but you know that that 0:36:22.080 --> 0:36:25.080 quarterback position is a huge question mark. And oh, by 0:36:25.120 --> 0:36:28.439 the way, they're moving into a brand new stadium uh 0:36:28.560 --> 0:36:31.799 in Englewood, and they are having an extremely difficult time 0:36:31.880 --> 0:36:35.200 selling tickets for their you know, this new endeavor. So 0:36:35.560 --> 0:36:37.759 the idea that they come out of this draft with 0:36:37.800 --> 0:36:40.520 a quarterback of the future and can really sell this 0:36:40.680 --> 0:36:44.040 to the fans, I guess the fans. I mean I 0:36:44.280 --> 0:36:47.040 live in Los Angeles and I supposedly they're around, but 0:36:47.120 --> 0:36:51.399 I certainly don't see them. Um, but if they it's 0:36:51.440 --> 0:36:54.040 as if they abandoned their fan base in San Diego 0:36:54.160 --> 0:36:56.600 or something. You know, you can hear everyone in San 0:36:56.640 --> 0:36:59.279 Diego go ahead and nuts right now. It is And 0:36:59.480 --> 0:37:01.719 you know, hey, they were like, hey, people in l A. 0:37:02.080 --> 0:37:04.200 They watched the Chargers. Well, it's because they're they're on 0:37:04.560 --> 0:37:08.000 because they're on TV. It's not because they love the Chargers. Sorry, um, 0:37:08.040 --> 0:37:10.600 but yeah, the you know, the the idea that you 0:37:10.680 --> 0:37:12.480 have you come out of this draft with a quarterback. 0:37:12.480 --> 0:37:14.560 If you're the Chargers is pretty appealing in terms of 0:37:14.600 --> 0:37:16.520 being able to sell your you know, the future of 0:37:16.520 --> 0:37:20.960 the franchise here. Um, But if your only choice, if 0:37:20.960 --> 0:37:22.640 you can't make a trade up to three, if you 0:37:22.640 --> 0:37:25.160 can't get ahead of the Dolphins, and then the Dolphins 0:37:25.200 --> 0:37:27.920 take Herbert, who uh you know you had penciled in 0:37:28.000 --> 0:37:29.640 as you know, was gonna fall to you at six, 0:37:30.320 --> 0:37:32.120 you know, do you pull the trigger on a risky 0:37:32.120 --> 0:37:35.560 asset like toa And that is an enormously important question. 0:37:35.640 --> 0:37:37.879 If to it does not go at six, where does 0:37:37.960 --> 0:37:41.440 he go? The free fall could be absolutely epic. And 0:37:41.640 --> 0:37:43.839 all of this is predicated on what we were talking 0:37:43.840 --> 0:37:47.840 about just a minute ago, you know, like the preconception 0:37:48.280 --> 0:37:51.759 in January, February, and March for every team in the 0:37:51.840 --> 0:37:54.880 NFL was that too was going to go potentially top three. 0:37:55.640 --> 0:37:58.200 So if you weren't expected to, you know, you you 0:37:58.280 --> 0:37:59.880 kind of make a decision like, okay, well how do 0:37:59.920 --> 0:38:01.759 we feel about to Ah, Well, we're okay at the 0:38:01.840 --> 0:38:04.040 quarterback position. We're not going to give up our entire 0:38:04.120 --> 0:38:06.279 draft of assets to move up to three to take him. 0:38:06.360 --> 0:38:08.839 So we're out of the two again, let's focus on 0:38:08.880 --> 0:38:12.200 the other you know, five players that are available, right, 0:38:12.360 --> 0:38:15.200 and so you allocate your resources in terms of preparation 0:38:15.280 --> 0:38:17.440 to the guys that you think you have a reasonable 0:38:17.520 --> 0:38:20.040 chance will be on the board when you are picking, 0:38:20.440 --> 0:38:23.000 and you may not be dedicating your you know, your 0:38:23.040 --> 0:38:26.000 time and your effort to evaluating a guy like to 0:38:26.040 --> 0:38:28.480 throw a monkey mention too, this and that the entire 0:38:28.880 --> 0:38:33.120 you know, coronavirus quarantine has you know, prevented you know, 0:38:33.239 --> 0:38:36.560 teams that are in the quarterback market from doing full 0:38:36.640 --> 0:38:40.480 medical evaluations of him. And you have kind of cooked 0:38:40.520 --> 0:38:43.239 up the absolute worst case cocktail for this young band, 0:38:43.239 --> 0:38:46.680 which is really sad because you know, in any other 0:38:46.880 --> 0:38:50.279 year this may be a very different outcome. But you know, 0:38:50.320 --> 0:38:53.160 I think the reality of you know, him falling out 0:38:53.160 --> 0:38:56.840 of the top six is real. And if that happens, 0:38:57.000 --> 0:38:59.799 where does he land? I mean, you know, we've we've 0:39:00.040 --> 0:39:02.040 we mentioned it. But you know, a team like the 0:39:02.600 --> 0:39:05.040 you know, the Raiders could use a quarterback for the future. 0:39:05.360 --> 0:39:08.919 But you know, we've gotten Mike Mayock on record as 0:39:08.920 --> 0:39:11.040 saying it's been you know the most difficult part of 0:39:11.080 --> 0:39:13.840 this entire process has been you know, not having medical 0:39:14.520 --> 0:39:18.600 evaluations and our medical team not getting the information. Yeah, 0:39:19.120 --> 0:39:21.319 so if you can't you know, if you're if you're 0:39:21.360 --> 0:39:23.080 there on the you know, if you if if you know, 0:39:23.160 --> 0:39:26.240 pick twelve comes up. You've been preparing this entire cycle 0:39:26.280 --> 0:39:28.560 for which of these three wide receivers are we the 0:39:28.600 --> 0:39:31.520 most excited about because we need a wide receiver. Uh? 0:39:31.640 --> 0:39:33.960 And then oh, by the way, you know, you know, 0:39:34.239 --> 0:39:36.360 a guy that could be the best quarterback of this 0:39:36.480 --> 0:39:39.480 draft falls into your lap at twelve. You know, do 0:39:39.520 --> 0:39:41.360 you pull the trigger on him if you're the Raiders 0:39:41.480 --> 0:39:44.360 or is it too risky of a decision? And you know, 0:39:44.440 --> 0:39:47.200 it's it's it kind of comes down to what you know, 0:39:47.239 --> 0:39:49.839 what we were saying, which is that you may just 0:39:49.920 --> 0:39:52.759 have not had you may not have enough information in 0:39:52.840 --> 0:39:55.680 hand in house through you. Your scouts, haven't your medical 0:39:55.719 --> 0:39:59.279 team hasn't gotten their work that they needed to get 0:39:59.320 --> 0:40:01.719 done on this guy, and therefore you have to pass 0:40:01.760 --> 0:40:03.160 on him. And I think you know, you look back 0:40:03.200 --> 0:40:04.960 to the Aaron Rodgers draft and the fact that he 0:40:04.960 --> 0:40:08.200 felt a twenty four and how you know how prolonged 0:40:08.239 --> 0:40:10.800 that slide was. Uh. You know, that wasn't like a 0:40:10.880 --> 0:40:13.440 Johnny Man's l type of slide where every team had 0:40:13.520 --> 0:40:15.640 kind of had their chance to think about it and 0:40:15.680 --> 0:40:18.719 decided not to pull the trigger. That was much more 0:40:18.719 --> 0:40:21.600 of Oh well, actually we thought Rogers was going to 0:40:21.680 --> 0:40:23.760 go number one, so we didn't really do our homework 0:40:23.800 --> 0:40:27.319 on them. Uh, and that that that ended up, you know, 0:40:27.640 --> 0:40:29.920 fighting a lot of teams in the acts. I just 0:40:29.960 --> 0:40:32.440 think it's such an interesting dynamic. I mean, you think 0:40:32.440 --> 0:40:35.160 about teams like the Jaguars, who you know, many think 0:40:35.200 --> 0:40:37.640 are tanking for Trevor. Right, all of a sudden, if 0:40:37.719 --> 0:40:39.600 two of falls in their lap at nine, They're like 0:40:39.760 --> 0:40:42.720 they have ten minutes to basically decide on their legacy 0:40:43.200 --> 0:40:47.359 as as personnel, you know, decision makers, It's like what 0:40:47.400 --> 0:40:49.480 do we do? Uh? Same thing with the Raiders, as 0:40:49.480 --> 0:40:53.279 you point out, So if the Chargers don't let so 0:40:53.360 --> 0:40:56.640 Herbert goes to Miami, let's say your hunches that the 0:40:56.719 --> 0:40:59.760 Chargers go offensive tackle. Then does that begin the offensive 0:40:59.760 --> 0:41:02.440 tack goal run or not begin it but continue it? 0:41:03.239 --> 0:41:05.000 So I made I made a play that too. It 0:41:05.080 --> 0:41:06.520 was going to fall out of the top six at 0:41:06.560 --> 0:41:11.000 plus seven. Uh. And you know, you know, you know 0:41:11.040 --> 0:41:12.759 how this goes when you when you get when you 0:41:12.760 --> 0:41:14.759 get a number like that, and now I'm looking at 0:41:14.800 --> 0:41:18.319 that online. Now has that now has field over top 0:41:18.400 --> 0:41:20.640 six at plus you know, plus two twenty five. So 0:41:20.719 --> 0:41:25.920 that's come way in on top of the Now that's 0:41:25.960 --> 0:41:29.319 that's that's absolutely wild. And you know, but I don't 0:41:29.360 --> 0:41:33.600 think this is is unrealistic at all, um, and if it, 0:41:33.840 --> 0:41:36.279 you know, but it's the same same kind of thing, 0:41:36.320 --> 0:41:38.319 like you know, when you get like just an outrageously 0:41:38.360 --> 0:41:40.759 good number in the futures market or something like that, 0:41:40.840 --> 0:41:42.840 like you know, or let's say you went, you know, 0:41:42.880 --> 0:41:45.800 you went with Joe Burrow for Heisman last year in August, 0:41:46.040 --> 0:41:47.919 right and something. You know, he goes through the first 0:41:47.920 --> 0:41:49.839 couple of games and he just shows out and all 0:41:49.840 --> 0:41:51.480 of a sudden, you know, you see his number. You 0:41:51.480 --> 0:41:53.400 have a hundred one in your pocket, and now you 0:41:53.400 --> 0:41:55.480 know they're they're reopening the market and it's you know, 0:41:55.880 --> 0:41:58.520 you know, five to one or whatever. Right, Like it's 0:41:58.560 --> 0:42:02.920 tough not to um, you know, use you know, cognitive 0:42:02.920 --> 0:42:05.200 biases start kicking in and you're like, oh no, no, 0:42:05.400 --> 0:42:10.080 just definitely gonna happen totally. You get all of this 0:42:10.200 --> 0:42:13.480 confirmation bias just watches over you and you're like, this 0:42:13.560 --> 0:42:20.399 is definitely gonna happen now, um, isn't it? Yeah? Yeah, yeah, 0:42:20.560 --> 0:42:23.520 so I'm I'm fighting that. I'm fighting that cycle right 0:42:23.520 --> 0:42:25.680 now with two is going to fall right, because I 0:42:26.000 --> 0:42:28.520 have I have a pretty good amount kind of spread 0:42:28.560 --> 0:42:32.040 out on Herbert going second to a going third quarterback, 0:42:32.360 --> 0:42:36.759 taken Herbert's second quarterback to a third quarterback, and then 0:42:36.760 --> 0:42:38.640 to a falling out of the top six are all 0:42:38.760 --> 0:42:41.759 are all in my portfolio with some pretty nice positions. 0:42:41.760 --> 0:42:44.319 So at this point, I'm just trying to say, Okay, well, 0:42:44.360 --> 0:42:47.239 you know, I'm gonna let this market go bananas. It's 0:42:47.239 --> 0:42:49.960 gonna completely flip upside down, and I'm gonna take some 0:42:50.000 --> 0:42:52.040 scalps before we get to draft ded because I don't 0:42:52.040 --> 0:42:54.200 want to be in this position where I have all 0:42:54.239 --> 0:42:55.839 of this value and let it go to waste. Because 0:42:55.840 --> 0:42:58.799 I've convinced myself that it's that it's for sure going 0:42:58.840 --> 0:43:02.080 to happen. So I'm a little I'm walking on eggshells 0:43:02.080 --> 0:43:04.440 about around in this right topic right now. But um 0:43:04.640 --> 0:43:07.319 so I'm prepared for but if to a but to 0:43:07.360 --> 0:43:09.719 answer your original question, if to the two, A dozen 0:43:09.800 --> 0:43:12.120 go six, what do the Chargers do? Uh? They take 0:43:12.120 --> 0:43:14.560 the best tackle off the board, And honestly, this I 0:43:14.600 --> 0:43:17.759 think sets up for a tackle run in the top 0:43:17.800 --> 0:43:21.160 ten as you kind of alluded to earlier, because um, 0:43:21.200 --> 0:43:24.600 you know, I see teams at six, I see teams 0:43:24.640 --> 0:43:28.839 at eight, nine, and ten who all could use help 0:43:28.880 --> 0:43:32.320 on the offensive line. Uh and uh. I think actually 0:43:32.360 --> 0:43:36.440 really this sets up for um, you know, just an 0:43:36.520 --> 0:43:40.680 offensive line heavy first round overall, which would be which 0:43:40.680 --> 0:43:43.360 would be another nice position to take in my opinion 0:43:43.400 --> 0:43:45.239 as we head into this draft, just over five and 0:43:45.280 --> 0:43:47.800 a half offensive lineman. I have a I'm pretty overweight 0:43:47.840 --> 0:43:50.560 on that one. Yeah, there's a there's some props out there. 0:43:50.560 --> 0:43:51.799 You can see that five and a half. There's something 0:43:51.840 --> 0:43:53.600 you can see it at six and a half. That's 0:43:53.680 --> 0:43:56.239 that could go either way. Some people think they'll be 0:43:56.320 --> 0:43:58.759 more than six and a half. Just to get back 0:43:58.800 --> 0:44:01.320 to Daniel Jeremiah, for I cons we brought him up earlier. 0:44:01.560 --> 0:44:04.399 He's got to a going at six, which it should 0:44:04.440 --> 0:44:05.919 be noted in his three point it was the first 0:44:05.960 --> 0:44:08.520 time he had Herbert and to a flip flopped. He 0:44:08.640 --> 0:44:11.560 then has Derek Brown going to Carolina at the defensive 0:44:11.560 --> 0:44:15.080 tackle from Auburn at seven. Uh. Number eight, talk about 0:44:15.120 --> 0:44:17.440 the offensive lineman. Now back to the offensive lineman, Jedderick 0:44:17.480 --> 0:44:21.280 Wills from Alabama going to Arizona. They obviously want line 0:44:21.360 --> 0:44:25.040 help for their young quarterback Kyler Murray, and of course 0:44:25.040 --> 0:44:27.600 their new acquisition DeAndre Hopkins is a target. Makes sense 0:44:27.640 --> 0:44:30.440 to go after an offensive lineman. Mackay becked in Jeremiah 0:44:30.440 --> 0:44:34.360 has penciled in for the Jags at number nine, backing 0:44:34.360 --> 0:44:36.480 from Louisville of course, and then rounding out the top ten. 0:44:36.560 --> 0:44:40.399 I think this is very interesting. Isaiah Simmons. You talk 0:44:40.520 --> 0:44:43.920 about a guy that falls into a team's lap. I mean, 0:44:44.000 --> 0:44:47.200 Isaiah Simmons. I don't want to call him generational, but 0:44:47.320 --> 0:44:49.719 like there's kind of a scenario and if he ends 0:44:49.719 --> 0:44:54.680 a bit Cleveland, that's a real good spot for him. Yeah, 0:44:54.840 --> 0:44:57.480 as football fans, that's what we should all be rooting 0:44:57.480 --> 0:45:02.160 for because that makes the sounds Ravens games over the 0:45:02.200 --> 0:45:06.359 next five years must see TV twice a year, right 0:45:06.560 --> 0:45:11.439 like that as it as absolutely perfect stopper. I mean 0:45:11.480 --> 0:45:14.240 you you can remember back when you know Lamar Jackson 0:45:14.280 --> 0:45:16.840 was a rookie. Uh, they go up against the Charger 0:45:17.080 --> 0:45:20.680 Derwin James just completely you know, wiped him off the 0:45:20.719 --> 0:45:23.000 map for three quarters. Like that's the kind of player 0:45:23.040 --> 0:45:25.120 Isaiah Simmons is. In my opinion. I see a lot 0:45:25.160 --> 0:45:28.040 of a lot of similarities between what Simmons can do 0:45:28.080 --> 0:45:30.880 and what Derwin James can do. Uh. And so you know, 0:45:31.320 --> 0:45:35.040 you know, Cleveland obviously desperately needs offensive tackle help. And 0:45:35.040 --> 0:45:37.040 I think a lot of the mock drafts you see them, 0:45:37.080 --> 0:45:40.120 you see you know, them slotting best available offensive tackle 0:45:40.160 --> 0:45:43.320 to Cleveland. Uh. And that's probably the most likely scenario. 0:45:43.400 --> 0:45:46.120 But if a guy like Simmons falls in their lap, um, 0:45:46.160 --> 0:45:49.719 that's that's a match made in heaven for football fans worldwide. 0:45:49.719 --> 0:45:52.400 So I'm I'm pulling for that personally. Um, that's a 0:45:52.840 --> 0:45:56.359 great point. Facing him twice a year. Good, It's such 0:45:56.440 --> 0:45:59.480 such a good matchup. But you know, there's I do 0:45:59.680 --> 0:46:03.239 see Carolina at seven as a potential landing spot for 0:46:03.280 --> 0:46:07.040 Simmons just because they lose Keik Lee and Simmons you 0:46:07.040 --> 0:46:09.879 can potentially plug in as a linebacker, and I don't 0:46:09.960 --> 0:46:12.440 they're not the same player, obviously, they're very different in 0:46:12.560 --> 0:46:15.200 terms of skill set. But you know, I I could 0:46:15.200 --> 0:46:18.279 see that happening as well. Drew, let me bounce in. 0:46:18.280 --> 0:46:21.040 We'll take a break, we'll come back. We'll get more 0:46:21.080 --> 0:46:23.440 specifically into some of the bets you've made some that 0:46:23.480 --> 0:46:27.080 you're eyeing will throw up mine. I'll talk about where 0:46:27.120 --> 0:46:30.960 I think I may have gotten torpedoed certain category. I'm 0:46:30.960 --> 0:46:32.960 not feeling that great about coming back NFL Draft with 0:46:33.000 --> 0:46:34.960 Drew Dinsic on a numbers game at Visa and these 0:46:34.960 --> 0:46:38.320 sports Betting network. It's a numbers game with your host, 0:46:38.640 --> 0:46:44.640 Jil Alexander. Believe in analytics. It is a numbers game, 0:46:44.840 --> 0:46:48.600 our number two, Gill Alexander, right here live in San Francisco, 0:46:48.800 --> 0:46:52.560 our San Francisco outpost here on the network series XM 0:46:52.600 --> 0:46:54.600 Channel two, O four, Visa dot Com, the Visa app, 0:46:54.800 --> 0:46:59.279 Phobos Link game plus Drew Dinsick kind enough, I imposed 0:46:59.719 --> 0:47:02.439 uh kind enough to stick around for one uh more 0:47:02.480 --> 0:47:05.560 segment with us to wrap things up about the NFL Draft. 0:47:05.719 --> 0:47:09.319 So before we get into specific prop bets, Drew, if 0:47:09.360 --> 0:47:12.239 you would, so, let's just run through them one through 0:47:12.280 --> 0:47:15.120 ten again. This is the Drew Dinsic mock. Again. This 0:47:15.280 --> 0:47:18.440 has nothing to do with um anything but how it 0:47:18.480 --> 0:47:22.080 feels right now. But it's Burrow at one to the Bengals. 0:47:22.080 --> 0:47:26.000 It's Chase Young uh two to the Redskins. Uh. We 0:47:26.000 --> 0:47:28.200 talked about Jeffrey ol Couda going to the House stated 0:47:28.280 --> 0:47:33.840 how three four, and then Herbert at five. What do 0:47:33.880 --> 0:47:37.160 you got after that? Yeah, I don't mind slotting two 0:47:37.160 --> 0:47:39.880 a six, just to kind of a sperm an emotional 0:47:39.920 --> 0:47:41.799 hedge on top of you know, it makes sense that 0:47:41.880 --> 0:47:44.480 the Chargers come out of this with a quarterback. Uh. 0:47:44.560 --> 0:47:47.080 And then after that, I like Uh, I like Brown 0:47:47.160 --> 0:47:52.560 to Carolina at seven. I like Beckton at eight. I 0:47:52.600 --> 0:47:54.960 think fits scheme wise a little bit better. With Arizona, 0:47:55.080 --> 0:47:57.680 they will more likely go Beckton than Wills, And then 0:47:57.960 --> 0:48:03.560 Wills I think goes nine to um to Jacksonville. Jacksonville 0:48:03.760 --> 0:48:07.239 obviously all in on h Gardner Minshew this year. That 0:48:07.280 --> 0:48:09.759 makes sense. He's on such a team friendly contract you 0:48:09.800 --> 0:48:12.360 find out this year. If he's your guy, that's great. 0:48:12.520 --> 0:48:15.239 You know you got him lockdown on an unbelievably team 0:48:15.280 --> 0:48:17.319 friendly contract for a couple of years. If he's not 0:48:17.400 --> 0:48:19.279 your guy, you're at the top of the draft next year, 0:48:19.320 --> 0:48:21.680 picking a guy like Trevor Lawrence with the quarterback of 0:48:21.719 --> 0:48:23.960 the future, so that all checks out. Uh. And then 0:48:24.000 --> 0:48:27.640 at ten, UM, I think uh. I think you get 0:48:27.680 --> 0:48:30.360 a tough call here between Simmons and uh uh and 0:48:30.880 --> 0:48:34.960 reaching for a next tier offensive tackle like Andrew Miller. Um, 0:48:35.000 --> 0:48:37.680 but uh, you know, I'd like to see Simmons go. 0:48:38.320 --> 0:48:41.640 I could see Andrew Miller. I'll slot Simmons in there 0:48:41.680 --> 0:48:44.839 just as a fan standpoint. So pretty similar to what 0:48:45.239 --> 0:48:47.520 DJ has up in his mock three point. Oh is 0:48:47.520 --> 0:48:50.440 is kind of informed most of my betting on this 0:48:50.520 --> 0:48:53.840 top ten. Yeah, and then I guess the run on 0:48:53.920 --> 0:48:59.040 wide receivers begins thereafter. I suppose, Um, yeah, how many 0:48:59.040 --> 0:49:03.959 wide receivers first round? In second round? I mean, yeah, 0:49:04.040 --> 0:49:07.319 let's talk about that, actually, because I think there's been 0:49:07.360 --> 0:49:10.880 a there may be a betting value on underwide receivers 0:49:10.880 --> 0:49:14.360 at this point. Um, we've seen this in years past 0:49:14.800 --> 0:49:18.799 where there are so many good options and running backs 0:49:18.800 --> 0:49:20.719 fall in this category. To this can be the same 0:49:20.800 --> 0:49:24.400 kind of conversation. I think running backs and wide receivers. 0:49:24.480 --> 0:49:28.640 For this draft, I see a pretty clear tier one 0:49:28.680 --> 0:49:33.160 for wide receivers in the top three. That's that's that's unimpeachable. Right. 0:49:33.200 --> 0:49:34.799 There's gonna be you know, three of these guys who 0:49:34.800 --> 0:49:38.400 are gonna go between three between eleven and twenty at 0:49:38.480 --> 0:49:40.759 least between eleven and twenty two. When the when the 0:49:40.840 --> 0:49:43.440 Eagles pick, you're going to see all three guys go right, 0:49:43.440 --> 0:49:46.160 and so Jody Lamb and rugs you're referring to you 0:49:46.280 --> 0:49:49.480 got it. Uh. And then after that you have kind 0:49:49.480 --> 0:49:52.560 of Jefferson in a tier by himself as sort of 0:49:52.640 --> 0:49:56.480 one b uh and then uh at. But beyond that 0:49:57.000 --> 0:50:01.000 all of these guys Higgins I uh, and then down 0:50:01.040 --> 0:50:06.160 the list from there another seven guys yeah, mims. Yeah. 0:50:06.320 --> 0:50:10.399 These guys are all on tier two and they're more 0:50:10.480 --> 0:50:14.360 or less indistinguishable. And when that happens, that tends to 0:50:14.480 --> 0:50:19.279 de incentivize teams to reach teams to trade up and uh, 0:50:19.320 --> 0:50:22.120 and teams think that, Okay, well, you know we're gonna 0:50:22.239 --> 0:50:27.040 address a position of scarcity rather than go and take 0:50:27.080 --> 0:50:29.920 a wide receiver now when you know we have another 0:50:29.960 --> 0:50:32.040 pick coming up in you know, twenty picks or so, 0:50:32.160 --> 0:50:34.200 and you know we can just take a guy there. 0:50:34.320 --> 0:50:37.520 So there are there are clear needs for wide receivers 0:50:37.520 --> 0:50:40.480 in this year's draft. UM. The wide receiver marketing free 0:50:40.480 --> 0:50:43.919 agency was extremely soft, I felt, and I think that 0:50:43.920 --> 0:50:45.759 that was borne out of the fact that so many 0:50:45.800 --> 0:50:48.480 teams are coming into this draft expecting to take wide 0:50:48.480 --> 0:50:52.000 receivers early. UM. But I think you could see more 0:50:52.520 --> 0:50:55.400 going round two than round than than I think you 0:50:55.400 --> 0:50:58.560 could see more in round two just on the basis 0:50:58.600 --> 0:51:00.759 of teams aren't going to need to you know, they 0:51:00.760 --> 0:51:03.320 aren't going to force it, um, and they may choose 0:51:03.400 --> 0:51:06.520 other positions where, uh, you know, talent is a little 0:51:06.560 --> 0:51:10.000 bit more scarce. Cornerback is comes to mind immediately. There 0:51:10.680 --> 0:51:13.560 offensive tackle as well, there's about you know, there are 0:51:13.600 --> 0:51:16.520 kind of two clear tiers of offensive tackles in my opinion, 0:51:16.520 --> 0:51:19.560 and after that it falls off dramatically. Um. So if 0:51:19.560 --> 0:51:21.400 you get one of the top six tackles, if you 0:51:21.440 --> 0:51:23.200 need one of the top six tackles, you're gonna take 0:51:23.200 --> 0:51:24.839 one of them in the first round. So I could 0:51:24.840 --> 0:51:27.239 see a situation where we only see four or five 0:51:27.280 --> 0:51:29.720 wide receivers in round one, which may creates some value 0:51:29.760 --> 0:51:31.719 on under five and a half wide receivers. But I'm 0:51:31.719 --> 0:51:33.319 gonna wait until that number it gets a little bit 0:51:33.320 --> 0:51:37.160 bigger before I jump in. Gil Alexander Drew DINSI here 0:51:37.280 --> 0:51:39.520 on a numbers game at Visa the Sports betting network 0:51:39.560 --> 0:51:44.560 talking NFL Draft. Um, that's a great point about wide receivers, man, 0:51:44.680 --> 0:51:47.520 it is really true, Like, yes, there's a whole bunch 0:51:47.600 --> 0:51:52.359 of them, but after the first four, is there any 0:51:52.560 --> 0:51:55.120 one of them that is so much better than any 0:51:55.200 --> 0:51:57.840 of the others that teams are as, to use your word, 0:51:58.120 --> 0:52:02.000 super incentivized to to draft one of them as high 0:52:02.000 --> 0:52:04.719 as they might otherwise. It's a great point, and what 0:52:04.880 --> 0:52:08.040 makes these drafts so interesting when you get down further 0:52:08.160 --> 0:52:10.480 in them. Let's go back to the top four a second. 0:52:10.600 --> 0:52:13.200 I was making this point with Michael Lombardi, host of 0:52:13.200 --> 0:52:17.239 the Lombardi Line here at Visa yesterday, which was every year, 0:52:17.320 --> 0:52:20.040 you know, we tend to forget the the inexact science 0:52:20.040 --> 0:52:23.200 of this. Every year in recent history, Drew, there has 0:52:23.239 --> 0:52:26.319 been a shocker at the top of the draft, in 0:52:26.320 --> 0:52:29.480 the in the top five picks, some more shocking than others. Right, 0:52:29.520 --> 0:52:31.799 So there was you know, even Baker Mayfield at number one. 0:52:31.840 --> 0:52:36.560 People forget until the last twenty hours, like he was 0:52:36.640 --> 0:52:38.880 not the number one pick in the draft, right, So 0:52:38.960 --> 0:52:41.359 like that even in the in the short lead up, 0:52:41.400 --> 0:52:43.480 became a bit of a surprise that he ended up 0:52:43.560 --> 0:52:47.080 number one to the Browns. Obviously, Mitch Drobiskie the Bears 0:52:47.120 --> 0:52:49.840 trading up to number two to grab him after thirteen 0:52:49.880 --> 0:52:53.919 starts at North Carolina was a shocker. Joey Bosa went 0:52:54.360 --> 0:52:56.920 way higher to the Chargers than everyone had projected. And 0:52:56.920 --> 0:52:59.560 then even last year, right Farrell going to the Raiders 0:52:59.560 --> 0:53:02.000 at four or was like, whoa, what what are they doing? 0:53:02.200 --> 0:53:05.600 Like no one had that are we missing something here? 0:53:05.640 --> 0:53:10.719 Like might we be missing something? Yeah, we might be. Um, 0:53:10.880 --> 0:53:14.279 we could see the one thing that's been in the 0:53:14.320 --> 0:53:16.399 back of my head that I have not made any 0:53:16.440 --> 0:53:20.919 action on that I'm scared about, uh because it would 0:53:20.920 --> 0:53:23.200 wipe out a bunch of bets that I have is 0:53:23.920 --> 0:53:28.640 if the Lions, If the Lions take a quarterback, we 0:53:28.640 --> 0:53:32.160 could see a scenario where Stafford gets dealt. I think, Um, 0:53:32.200 --> 0:53:34.560 that's this is a team that isn't built to win. Now, 0:53:34.640 --> 0:53:37.400 Stafford is on a pretty big contract. There are teams 0:53:37.440 --> 0:53:40.239 out there like the Chargers, like the Patriots that I 0:53:40.280 --> 0:53:42.799 feel like would could make a deal for a guy 0:53:42.880 --> 0:53:46.440 like Stafford. Um, in which case you could see the 0:53:46.440 --> 0:53:50.439 Lions take take Herberd or take two or whoever they prefer. Uh. 0:53:50.480 --> 0:53:52.920 And you know this, it may be that they may 0:53:53.000 --> 0:53:55.640 talk themselves into this because they're not getting the you know, 0:53:55.719 --> 0:53:58.160 the type of deal that they're expecting for the third 0:53:58.200 --> 0:54:00.920 overall pick, and they may just say, okay, look like 0:54:01.160 --> 0:54:04.200 a lot of guys in the Lions organization really need 0:54:04.239 --> 0:54:06.680 to reset the clock to save their jobs, and a 0:54:06.920 --> 0:54:09.880 very good way to do that would be to basically 0:54:10.040 --> 0:54:13.800 start over at the quarterback position. So I'm a little 0:54:14.400 --> 0:54:17.520 you know that if there's something totally bananas that happens 0:54:17.560 --> 0:54:20.600 that would totally shake up the top ten of the draft, 0:54:20.719 --> 0:54:23.719 I think it's at the Lions pick at three. Man, 0:54:24.280 --> 0:54:26.560 A shutter just went through me, like if something just 0:54:27.400 --> 0:54:29.560 blows up, all of this, all of this tongue is 0:54:29.600 --> 0:54:34.160 just rendered completely mood. Um all right, let yeah, that's 0:54:34.200 --> 0:54:38.880 that's a you know, stranger things, man, Stranger things, um, danny, 0:54:38.920 --> 0:54:41.120 if we could throw up my the ones that I've 0:54:41.120 --> 0:54:46.000 bet so far globally, these are all from bookmaker, just 0:54:46.080 --> 0:54:48.680 to be specific where I bet these. Uh, this is 0:54:48.680 --> 0:54:50.040 what I bet so far, by the way, not all 0:54:50.040 --> 0:54:51.799 of them, because I don't know if we listed. The 0:54:51.880 --> 0:54:55.600 very first thing that I bet was actually under four 0:54:55.640 --> 0:54:58.640 and a half quarterbacks when Caesar's first released it and 0:54:58.680 --> 0:55:01.839 they limited me drew as I famously talked about on air, 0:55:02.120 --> 0:55:04.960 to a three hundred dollar wager not to win three 0:55:05.040 --> 0:55:08.200 hundred dollars, but three hundred dollars to win less on 0:55:08.360 --> 0:55:11.440 under four and a half quarterbacks. Um, that's all another story. 0:55:11.520 --> 0:55:14.080 But these are the ones um with a bit higher 0:55:14.080 --> 0:55:16.359 limits than that, although not much more higher, by the way, 0:55:16.400 --> 0:55:19.040 it should be pointed out, these aren't like massive bets 0:55:19.160 --> 0:55:21.560 that are allowed, but to the degree that you can 0:55:21.600 --> 0:55:24.120 bet him and Nickel here and Nickel there, which pick 0:55:24.120 --> 0:55:26.200 will change? Young be drafted under two and a half. 0:55:26.280 --> 0:55:29.279 That was my first bet uh far away places back 0:55:29.280 --> 0:55:33.479 in March March that, as you point out, probably good 0:55:33.560 --> 0:55:36.920 value at this point in minus five fifty and then 0:55:36.920 --> 0:55:40.239 a whole sluvable on April fet total players drafted by 0:55:40.440 --> 0:55:43.400 Bama in the first round. I actually went to six 0:55:43.440 --> 0:55:45.440 on this, so I took a flyer at plus one hundred. 0:55:45.480 --> 0:55:50.560 I could easily lose that one if McKinney doesn't get drafted. UM. 0:55:50.680 --> 0:55:52.799 Total players from ellis you drafted in round one. Feel 0:55:52.880 --> 0:55:54.959 very good about the under five and a half. Total 0:55:55.000 --> 0:55:57.520 players from a house stay drafted. Feel very good about 0:55:57.520 --> 0:56:00.239 the under two and a half despite the juice as 0:56:00.320 --> 0:56:02.160 I see it, being young and Akuda and that's it. 0:56:02.560 --> 0:56:05.040 Total players from Clemson drafted over one and a half. 0:56:05.080 --> 0:56:07.320 I think you could get as many as three total 0:56:07.320 --> 0:56:10.799 players from Georgia drafted round one. UM, that one may 0:56:10.960 --> 0:56:12.880 fall by the wayside because I don't know if DeAndre 0:56:12.920 --> 0:56:15.439 Swift is gonna get drafted, so I may lose that one. 0:56:15.520 --> 0:56:19.160 There total players from Auburn drafted under one and a half. 0:56:19.200 --> 0:56:22.279 Feel good about that, although of course all none of 0:56:22.280 --> 0:56:25.200 these are locks. Here's where it gets into sort of 0:56:25.200 --> 0:56:28.359 teams versus conference more first round picks. I took a 0:56:28.360 --> 0:56:30.400 flyer on Bama versus the Big Ten. Now, I was 0:56:30.520 --> 0:56:33.200 talking to you off air, and one of the things 0:56:33.239 --> 0:56:35.879 that I've realized here in the run up is may 0:56:35.960 --> 0:56:39.120 Achilles in this draft may end up being the Big Tent. 0:56:39.560 --> 0:56:42.120 I may have underestimated the Big Ten in the first round, 0:56:42.160 --> 0:56:45.200 but I have Alabama big plus money. We'll see I 0:56:45.239 --> 0:56:48.840 do like Clemson in a straight up versus Oklahoma, UM 0:56:49.560 --> 0:56:52.480 two or three Clemson players I think to Oklahoma players 0:56:53.120 --> 0:56:55.359 total players are Big Tent drafted a round one under 0:56:55.440 --> 0:56:58.000 five and a half, I may lose that more first 0:56:58.080 --> 0:57:00.160 round picks a CC versus Pack twelve. I took a 0:57:00.239 --> 0:57:02.520 c C minus a half most first round picks or 0:57:02.560 --> 0:57:04.560 more first round picks. Clemson versus ol House State. I 0:57:04.600 --> 0:57:08.840 took Clemson plus a half at minus one nine UM 0:57:08.920 --> 0:57:11.239 So those are all my picks. I feel great about 0:57:11.239 --> 0:57:14.360 a bunch of them, not so great about a few. 0:57:14.560 --> 0:57:19.560 As I pointed out, mm hmm, I'm in agreement with 0:57:19.600 --> 0:57:21.200 a lot of those picks. I mean, you have enough 0:57:21.280 --> 0:57:23.840 value from early on that you're at least going to 0:57:23.880 --> 0:57:26.280 be able to capture you know, you can at least 0:57:26.280 --> 0:57:28.160 cover your steak if you if you like, And I'm 0:57:28.200 --> 0:57:31.240 with you on this Georgia bet and maybe be fun 0:57:31.280 --> 0:57:33.040 to kind of pick pick your brain a little bit 0:57:33.080 --> 0:57:35.000 on what to do now because this has moved in 0:57:35.040 --> 0:57:38.040 your direction a lot. And in general, you know, do 0:57:38.080 --> 0:57:40.640 you have a strategy for um? You know, when you 0:57:40.680 --> 0:57:42.520 make a bet like Georgia over one and a half 0:57:42.520 --> 0:57:44.920 at minus one twenty, it's currently market wide and about 0:57:44.920 --> 0:57:47.160 minus two hundred right now, Um, you know you can 0:57:47.200 --> 0:57:50.400 come back on uh and capture you know, basically buy 0:57:50.400 --> 0:57:53.720 out of that and get but get some you know, 0:57:53.800 --> 0:57:56.120 some winnings accumulated, Like are you would are you going 0:57:56.160 --> 0:57:59.040 to take any of the liability off on any of 0:57:59.040 --> 0:58:01.800 these place? I think on that Georgia one, I may 0:58:01.840 --> 0:58:04.720 just try to get off it. Yeah. Um, And that's 0:58:04.240 --> 0:58:08.360 one thing with you. I'm with you. I'm I'm prepping 0:58:08.480 --> 0:58:10.680 right now for that because I I do agree like 0:58:11.280 --> 0:58:15.880 Swift if Yeah, well, at the time I made the bed, 0:58:15.960 --> 0:58:17.880 I thought Swift had a chance, and I thought the 0:58:18.360 --> 0:58:21.200 other offensive tackle that they you know, the guys an underclassman, 0:58:21.240 --> 0:58:22.960 and I thought he was going to shoot up as 0:58:23.000 --> 0:58:25.440 we got closer and closer. But you know this, the 0:58:26.240 --> 0:58:30.120 quarantine has completely, uh you know, stunted a ton of 0:58:30.160 --> 0:58:32.880 the like late risers. Like it used to be, you 0:58:32.920 --> 0:58:35.720 could kind of look through the underclassman every year and 0:58:35.760 --> 0:58:37.160 pick out a bunch of guys that were going to 0:58:37.240 --> 0:58:39.960 be late risers. Um. As you know, teams kind of 0:58:39.960 --> 0:58:41.920 did their homework and figured out like, oh wait, this 0:58:41.920 --> 0:58:43.880 guy should be a first round grade. We just you know, 0:58:43.920 --> 0:58:46.520 we didn't you know, we weren't prepared to evaluate him. 0:58:46.560 --> 0:58:49.000 And now he's a late riser. Right. Well, you know, 0:58:49.040 --> 0:58:52.920 there's Isaiah Wilson, I think the guy, the second offensive 0:58:52.960 --> 0:58:55.960 tackle from Georgia besides Andrew Miller. He might be better 0:58:56.200 --> 0:58:59.280 actually as a pro maybe a better prospect, but h 0:58:59.360 --> 0:59:01.160 and I thought it was a chance he could sneak 0:59:01.160 --> 0:59:04.080 into around one if Swift fell um and so I 0:59:04.080 --> 0:59:06.080 took a swing on that Georgia. But now now I'm 0:59:06.080 --> 0:59:09.640 looking at it, and you know, running backs man at 0:59:09.680 --> 0:59:13.240 the top tier for one through five, there's such little 0:59:13.360 --> 0:59:16.480 separation between talent between one and five. Why would you 0:59:16.760 --> 0:59:19.120 why would you waste a first round pick on one? 0:59:19.160 --> 0:59:21.959 I just can't imagine it. And that amazing like telling 0:59:22.040 --> 0:59:24.720 our our child self, you know this running back thing 0:59:24.760 --> 0:59:26.960 that's so big now, it's just not gonna matter that 0:59:27.040 --> 0:59:29.200 much when you're an adult because the incredible how the 0:59:29.240 --> 0:59:32.720 game is changed. What are your favorite props that you 0:59:32.800 --> 0:59:39.640 have in pocket right now? Drew, So by far make 0:59:39.800 --> 0:59:42.240 or Break for me will be the sixth offensive linemen 0:59:42.280 --> 0:59:46.320 on the off the board for this whole traps. The 0:59:46.480 --> 0:59:49.680 entire thing will down to that, the entire thing. If 0:59:50.360 --> 0:59:53.439 only five offensive linemen go on day one, I could 0:59:53.440 --> 0:59:55.160 win every other bed and I'm still going to have 0:59:55.480 --> 0:59:59.480 a losing day. So that that's uh, that's what I'm 0:59:59.480 --> 1:00:02.920 the most jack before before you before you continue with that, 1:00:03.320 --> 1:00:05.480 you know one of the things and I try to 1:00:05.480 --> 1:00:07.760 be as authentic as possible on this show, which is 1:00:07.800 --> 1:00:12.200 to be authentic. Is It's amazing what I'm getting, what 1:00:12.280 --> 1:00:16.680 I've been saved from this year. I'm not in the 1:00:16.680 --> 1:00:19.760 state of Nevada, so I wasn't able to bet certain 1:00:19.800 --> 1:00:21.920 things where my first instinct was like, oh, I gotta 1:00:21.920 --> 1:00:24.520 bet this, And my first instinct on the offensive lineman 1:00:24.560 --> 1:00:28.919 was actually unders on six and a half's couldn't bet them, um, 1:00:28.960 --> 1:00:31.240 and I'm glad now. The other thing was there was 1:00:31.280 --> 1:00:34.680 a there's a profit circa will two players get drafted 1:00:34.680 --> 1:00:39.120 consecutively from the same song? What was that? What was 1:00:39.240 --> 1:00:45.160 this price? Well? No, so the no here's my My 1:00:45.280 --> 1:00:49.439 instinct at first was the no was ten to one, right, 1:00:49.720 --> 1:00:52.040 and this was when I was in the acuda might 1:00:52.120 --> 1:00:54.960 get you know, they might trade that pick thing, and 1:00:55.000 --> 1:00:57.040 so the no attend to one. I was actually like, 1:00:57.240 --> 1:00:59.520 oh I wish I was in Nevada, could bet the 1:00:59.520 --> 1:01:01.080 tend of one. By the way, within a half an hour, 1:01:01.160 --> 1:01:02.680 the know had gone down to six to one. And 1:01:02.680 --> 1:01:05.080 I wouldn't have bet it anyway at that point because 1:01:05.160 --> 1:01:07.520 at two or three, right, two and three, there's the 1:01:07.600 --> 1:01:11.600 chase young Okuda Kinniella to use a highlight term, that's 1:01:11.640 --> 1:01:14.440 sitting right there. But you're right, like it was the 1:01:14.480 --> 1:01:18.120 send out was priced wrong either way. Yeah, I didn't 1:01:18.120 --> 1:01:19.840 know it opened at ten to one, even at six 1:01:19.880 --> 1:01:22.520 to one. I stared at that a long time. Yesterday, 1:01:22.760 --> 1:01:26.800 I was so funny would both gravitated doors the same one. 1:01:27.320 --> 1:01:29.400 It's because the price, it just didn't make sense, like 1:01:29.440 --> 1:01:32.000 it there's like what is because you look at a 1:01:32.040 --> 1:01:34.200 price like that in the draft market and you're basically 1:01:34.240 --> 1:01:37.080 like they're pricing a short thing, like who is the 1:01:37.160 --> 1:01:39.400 short thing that two teammates go back to back in 1:01:39.440 --> 1:01:42.480 this draft? Like if it's not Chase Young and Okuda, 1:01:42.840 --> 1:01:47.440 Like you really, I mean you think you could see 1:01:47.760 --> 1:01:51.560 Judy and uh and and Rugs go. I guess you 1:01:51.600 --> 1:01:55.160 could see Rugs and maybe another Alabama player. You can 1:01:55.280 --> 1:01:59.080 see what was the linebacker from l s U and 1:01:59.200 --> 1:02:03.040 Jefferson could go in the But but the likelihood there's 1:02:03.040 --> 1:02:08.040 no locks, no lock definitely, So yeah, no, I I saw, 1:02:08.200 --> 1:02:11.360 I saw what you saw, and I honestly I still 1:02:11.400 --> 1:02:13.960 may take a swing at plus six hundred because you know, 1:02:14.320 --> 1:02:18.240 if it's if it's not two three Ohio State, uh, 1:02:18.320 --> 1:02:21.440 you know it's gonna it's gonna it's like it's you basically, 1:02:21.480 --> 1:02:24.080 if if anyone else besides Okuda, and you can and 1:02:24.160 --> 1:02:27.080 I already have Ocuda goes third at it like plus 1:02:27.120 --> 1:02:30.000 two hundred ish, so I can take a swing at 1:02:30.040 --> 1:02:32.760 plus six hundred. Uh, and then if he doesn't go 1:02:32.880 --> 1:02:35.160 third at that point, you it's a lot of ticket. 1:02:35.240 --> 1:02:37.960 Like I just I don't see the balls bouncing in 1:02:38.000 --> 1:02:39.760 a way that is a sure thing that they're going 1:02:39.800 --> 1:02:42.480 to be two teammates back to back. That's that I 1:02:42.520 --> 1:02:46.040 saw thee I saw the tender one and I actually 1:02:46.720 --> 1:02:50.280 stared at it, and I probably texted three or four 1:02:50.400 --> 1:02:51.959 people and I was like, do you have any money 1:02:51.960 --> 1:02:54.560 in your circuit account? I couldn't. Nobody came up with it. 1:02:54.680 --> 1:02:56.120 I was like, all right, But by the time I 1:02:56.160 --> 1:02:57.360 got around there was six and one. I was like, 1:02:57.400 --> 1:03:01.600 all right, maybe I'm not I took, I took, I 1:03:01.640 --> 1:03:03.280 took the screensho out of that. I sent it to 1:03:03.320 --> 1:03:05.560 three different group text I was like, what am I missing? Like? 1:03:05.880 --> 1:03:09.280 What was like something? And I did not talk about 1:03:09.320 --> 1:03:11.360 this before the show. People should know that we did 1:03:11.360 --> 1:03:14.200 not talk about it before the show. Yeah. No, no, no, no. 1:03:14.400 --> 1:03:17.840 But overall, though the um first sure my my most 1:03:17.920 --> 1:03:21.840 overweight on offensive lineman. If this, if six and a 1:03:21.880 --> 1:03:25.360 half gets built some steam to the over I'm very 1:03:25.400 --> 1:03:27.439 hopeful that happens in the next couple of days because 1:03:27.480 --> 1:03:29.560 I would love to come back on under six and 1:03:29.560 --> 1:03:33.080 a half at close to even even odds and cover 1:03:33.160 --> 1:03:34.800 some of my liability on that, and then I can 1:03:34.840 --> 1:03:38.160 have a total total risk free, stress free day one 1:03:38.280 --> 1:03:42.040 that will be fantastic. So that's figures crossed there. Um. 1:03:42.320 --> 1:03:46.120 C J. Henderson shooting up draft boards across the mock 1:03:46.200 --> 1:03:49.200 draft space. Uh he is. His total was sixteen and 1:03:49.200 --> 1:03:52.480 a half I fully subscribed to. Uh. You know his 1:03:52.760 --> 1:03:57.160 four is pick sixteen to the to the Falcons, entirely 1:03:57.200 --> 1:03:59.880 possible that somebody in the tend to and they all 1:04:00.120 --> 1:04:02.320 eleven to sixteen range takes him. He fits with the 1:04:02.320 --> 1:04:05.439 Broncos for a need standpoint, if the top three wide 1:04:05.440 --> 1:04:07.920 receivers go before the Broncos get to pick. So I 1:04:07.920 --> 1:04:10.520 could see, uh, I could see Henderson get get picked 1:04:10.520 --> 1:04:13.840 in in the top sixteen about any percent of the time. 1:04:13.880 --> 1:04:16.320 And there's still some value to his under sixteen and 1:04:16.360 --> 1:04:18.200 a half. You're looking at one forty one right now 1:04:18.200 --> 1:04:20.760 at draft Kings. That's a that is a slam dunk 1:04:20.800 --> 1:04:23.080 because market market some of the market making books have 1:04:23.120 --> 1:04:26.120 him closer in right now for sixteen and a half. Um, 1:04:26.160 --> 1:04:29.080 So that's a that's a great look. Um. And then 1:04:29.520 --> 1:04:31.880 comparison we have on the screen for C. J. Henderson 1:04:31.960 --> 1:04:34.200 is Carlos Rogers. She's I hope his hands are better 1:04:34.240 --> 1:04:38.320 than Carlos Rodgers. And God, that dude drop more picks 1:04:38.680 --> 1:04:41.080 than anybody over the course of career of of course 1:04:41.080 --> 1:04:45.160 of the career I've ever seen anyway, Yeah, his his 1:04:45.200 --> 1:04:47.720 ceiling is probably picked nine. I can see him going 1:04:47.760 --> 1:04:50.720 to the Jaguars at the Jaguars because Jaguars, Jaguars could 1:04:50.760 --> 1:04:55.000 pick any any any position, make you go the most 1:04:55.160 --> 1:04:57.760 most talented void roster in the NFL, and it's not close. 1:04:57.960 --> 1:05:00.320 Uh And you know they just need a stockpile sets 1:05:00.320 --> 1:05:02.840 for next year. Really so um you know that. But 1:05:03.360 --> 1:05:06.840 I Championship like a minute ago, right, It's it's incredible 1:05:07.000 --> 1:05:10.560 that it's it's wild how quick these turnover. Um and 1:05:10.720 --> 1:05:13.320 uh yeah, so that those are those are two. I 1:05:13.480 --> 1:05:16.400 especially like the offensive lineman and C. J. Henderson. Um 1:05:16.440 --> 1:05:22.000 I have uh a we mentioned in the off the top. 1:05:22.600 --> 1:05:27.160 I have a pretty decent amount on uh Okuda pick 1:05:27.320 --> 1:05:30.800 three works first offensive lineman because I think there's a 1:05:30.840 --> 1:05:33.840 reasonable chance that the Giants take him for and if 1:05:33.840 --> 1:05:36.520 the Giants choose not to have the Giants go Simmons 1:05:36.520 --> 1:05:39.560 for whatever reason, you still have a live shot that 1:05:39.560 --> 1:05:43.040 works as the first offensive lineman taken. Um and then uh, 1:05:43.080 --> 1:05:46.800 I liked at the prices that I got them. Herbert 1:05:46.880 --> 1:05:50.520 second quarterback overall at about plus four hundred was was 1:05:50.560 --> 1:05:53.760 a banger last week. And then to a third quarterback 1:05:53.800 --> 1:05:57.320 taken at what used to be plus seven hundred, and uh, 1:05:57.560 --> 1:05:59.919 you know, we're starting to see these, starting to see these. 1:06:00.000 --> 1:06:01.960 I'm closer to Evan odds, which I think is more 1:06:02.120 --> 1:06:05.640 reflecting reality. Um, but those are my those are in 1:06:05.640 --> 1:06:10.560 my pocket right now. And um and then uh, I 1:06:10.640 --> 1:06:13.320 made a couple of plays that I'm not super psyched about. 1:06:14.200 --> 1:06:20.920 We all have those, Yeah, yeah, but out of curiosity, Yeah, okay, Um, 1:06:21.400 --> 1:06:23.720 you know I bet I bet Deep Brown. I bet 1:06:23.800 --> 1:06:25.920 Deep Brown under eight and a half. I didn't get 1:06:25.920 --> 1:06:29.840 a great price. Uh and uh you know at this point, 1:06:29.920 --> 1:06:32.520 I'm you know, I I had kind of felt like 1:06:32.520 --> 1:06:36.440 he was the perfect fit for Carolina before I realized 1:06:36.440 --> 1:06:39.160 that there was a likelihood that Simmons could fall into 1:06:39.240 --> 1:06:42.560 that seventh spot. But so Dee Brown at under eight 1:06:42.600 --> 1:06:44.320 and a half is in my pocket. But I'm I'm 1:06:44.320 --> 1:06:47.360 feeling pretty nervous about that one. Um. And then we 1:06:47.640 --> 1:06:50.160 talked about the Georgia too. I bet over one and 1:06:50.200 --> 1:06:52.480 a half Georgia players. I got that out about minus 1:06:52.520 --> 1:06:55.800 one twenty and uh, even though that's moved in my direction, 1:06:55.840 --> 1:06:57.480 I feel like that's a bad play right now and 1:06:57.520 --> 1:07:00.560 I'm probably gonna buy of that. UM, totally with you 1:07:00.600 --> 1:07:02.800 on that, and I'm gonna do the same, Drew. I 1:07:02.840 --> 1:07:05.720 appreciate it. Man, you have been very generous. Uh. It's 1:07:05.720 --> 1:07:07.600 gonna be fun to look back on these and see 1:07:07.640 --> 1:07:09.480 how we did. And uh, I don't know if you'll 1:07:09.520 --> 1:07:11.480 be live tweeting that night. I know I will be, 1:07:12.120 --> 1:07:15.640 but should be fun. Eight days. Thank you so much. 1:07:16.600 --> 1:07:19.080 Enjoy your day, and uh, hopefully next time we talk 1:07:19.160 --> 1:07:24.919 we can talk about meaningful tennis. Oh yes, thanks, thanks 1:07:24.920 --> 1:07:26.640 you for having me. Man. This is a tough fun 1:07:27.360 --> 1:07:28.160 my man, you did