Speaker 1: Check it in Man.
Speaker 2: September third, twenty twenty four, Tuesday morning, September third, twenty
Speaker 2: twenty four. It is the Beating the Book Podcast Gil Alexander.
Speaker 2: Megapod Week one. Typically we will do these on days
Speaker 2: by the way of the given week. As it's week one,
Speaker 2: we decided to go a little earlier. This is I
Speaker 2: always remember. I always forget to look this up. I
Speaker 2: think this is the fourteenth year of the megapod. Fourteen
Speaker 2: podcasts have been around that long, and I don't know
Speaker 2: if you know that at the time when we did
Speaker 2: the first megapod, I think the only sports betting podcast
Speaker 2: that we're around with this one and ESPN's with Chad Millman.
Speaker 2: So happy to be around still doing this for the
Speaker 2: second straight year. Will Hill joined us as one of
Speaker 2: our pillars of the show. He is the host of
Speaker 2: the Should Have Bet More podcast and he's also part
Speaker 2: of the Chris Filika Empire over there at Fox Sports,
Speaker 2: part of the Bear Bets podcast. William or Wilson, I
Speaker 2: should say, Will Hill, everybody, how you.
Speaker 3: Doing, man boys, What's going on?
Speaker 1: It's weird.
Speaker 3: It feels like it took a while to get here.
Speaker 3: It kind of feels like it flew by. It's just
Speaker 3: I don't know. Time is funny in that aspect, but
Speaker 3: should be a lot of fun Fezi's back here for
Speaker 3: Week one. I know he was Week one last year
Speaker 3: and Gil had a good year, so Gilly superstitious, got
Speaker 3: to try to repeat last year.
Speaker 2: That's exactly why we had on week You're on to
Speaker 2: me before we get before we introduce our Rotina guest,
Speaker 2: Todd Wishnev joins us for what is Todd your fourth
Speaker 2: or fifty year doing this? Do you remember?
Speaker 1: I don't know, Gilly, I don't know. Am I supposed
Speaker 1: to research all the games? And know how many years
Speaker 1: I've been on here? I mean, it's a lot to ask,
Speaker 1: don't you think? I mean I'm dying over here? I'm
Speaker 1: five thousand pounds. I had a terrible betting summer. But
Speaker 1: before we get into any of that, I want to
Speaker 1: just give the congratulations that is due to two of
Speaker 1: my friends on here. My friend Fezick. If you look
Speaker 1: at his face, it's extremely thin. The guy after our
Speaker 1: weight bet has been keeping the weight off. And even
Speaker 1: though I'm the first one to love to stick it
Speaker 1: to mister arrogance, Stevie Fzick. He does look great and
Speaker 1: deserves kudos. Now, my second congratulations will go out to
Speaker 1: my good friend Gilbert Alexander, who had a thirty five,
Speaker 1: eighteen and one season last year. What does that mean, folks,
Speaker 1: That means fade Gilly this year. There's no way in
Speaker 1: any chance that this guy can do it again. Will
Speaker 1: he just fall back to fifty to fifty like it
Speaker 1: is in most NFL or will he completely shit the bet?
Speaker 1: That will be the question. But anyways, he does deserve
Speaker 1: tremendous kudos. And by the way, our teasers last year
Speaker 1: everyone went thirteen and five, including me, Will and the guest,
Speaker 1: and Gilly went eleven and seven, So our teasers were
Speaker 1: outstanding last year as well. Okay, enough said about the congratulations.
Speaker 2: Thank you, Todd. Todd wish to have everybody who who
Speaker 2: I think. I don't know if I can say this
Speaker 2: out loud. Todd, We're going to try to do halftimes
Speaker 2: this year to me and you on Twitter, Twitter Spaces,
Speaker 2: Twitter Space says We're gonna try to do that.
Speaker 1: I mean hopefully, It'll just depend on if I can
Speaker 1: get to a to a quiet enough area.
Speaker 2: Yeah, for primetime games. We'll see how that works out.
Speaker 2: They already will Will and Todd already introduced our first
Speaker 2: guest of the year. He's the only back to back
Speaker 2: Hilton Super Contest champion. He holds that distinction. He is
Speaker 2: a very kind gentleman in real life. He is a
Speaker 2: raging asshole on Twitter. It's Steve Zig everybody. Stevie.
Speaker 4: Now you swear and beg and kick us that you're
Speaker 4: not a gambling man. Then you find you're back in
Speaker 4: Vegas with a handle in your hand. You go back Jack,
Speaker 4: do it again.
Speaker 5: Let's go Gilly Erry.
Speaker 2: That was a very contemporary reference Stevie, for Steely Dan
Speaker 2: fans out there, not for anybody under the five. Well done, Steve.
Speaker 2: What do you have to Can we just start with this?
Speaker 2: Let'll say what do you have to say for yourself?
Speaker 2: But I but I guess we should start there. Why
Speaker 2: before we get into because by the way, the format
Speaker 2: of this show, and Todd will correct me if I'm wrong.
Speaker 2: Three best bets per week, Teaser of the week, Survivor
Speaker 2: play if people are still alive and Survivor, I guess
Speaker 2: we do a Thursday Night thought. If anybody has anything
Speaker 2: to say about the Thursday Night game. If it's part
Speaker 2: of their best bets or not, and then the final
Speaker 2: two questions which have been tried and true. On this podcast, we.
Speaker 1: Also usually do a little in game segment and sometimes
Speaker 1: also a real tremendous dumb bell of the week if
Speaker 1: there's something that's, you know, out of the ordinary, I've
Speaker 1: got I've already got a dumb bell of the week
Speaker 1: and an in game for you.
Speaker 2: Oh that's right, he does have a dumbbell. Todd's going
Speaker 2: to hijack the podcast momentarily. But Steve, real quick, why
Speaker 2: for the people out there, why do you feel the
Speaker 2: need to be this person on Twitter to point out
Speaker 2: other people's errors and to point out how you would
Speaker 2: never have made such errors?
Speaker 1: Can I take that question? Can I take that question
Speaker 1: for Stevie?
Speaker 2: I wouldn't answer that question.
Speaker 1: Yes, it goes back to high school and dungeons and dragons.
Speaker 1: But Stevie, go.
Speaker 4: Ahead, interruptions over six and a half, You're well on
Speaker 4: your way.
Speaker 5: You've already got one here.
Speaker 4: I'm the quote Jeff Spacoli in Fast Times fridgement high
Speaker 4: I don't know.
Speaker 2: Don't I don't know? Good an answer as any Let's okay,
Speaker 2: let's start with this because I know you've been talking
Speaker 2: about this all off season before we get to Todd's
Speaker 2: Dumbo of the week at his innygame, the new kickoff rule.
Speaker 2: You are very resolute in your opinion on this. What
Speaker 2: do your findings tell you?
Speaker 4: Well, I have no findings, but the good coaches are
Speaker 4: going to corkscrew ugly kick it to approximately the goal line.
Speaker 4: So it's like when Gilly and I play tennis. We
Speaker 4: both struggle mightily when there's that ball that it looks
Speaker 4: like it might go in, it might be going out.
Speaker 5: Should I hit it? Should I not hit it?
Speaker 4: I choke, I'll swing at it, and I'll hit it
Speaker 4: in the air, up in the air and hit my
Speaker 4: head with it. This happened in real life just this week.
Speaker 4: So you want to make the kick return or think,
Speaker 4: because that's another task he has to do. Now, if
Speaker 4: you're a conservative coach and you just want to kick
Speaker 4: it out of the end zone, you want to deal
Speaker 4: with it.
Speaker 5: Why not just kick it two yards.
Speaker 4: Into the end zone and let the opponent make a
Speaker 4: mistake and run it out because he won't get back
Speaker 4: more than like to the twenty five. So either kick
Speaker 4: it to the goal line or kick it to the
Speaker 4: two yard line, don't kick it out of the end zone.
Speaker 4: That's the optimal way to go, and that's the way
Speaker 4: every good team it will approach it.
Speaker 2: By week four, Okay, you said it's what twenty the
Speaker 2: average line will be the twenty eight point something?
Speaker 5: Yeah, twenty eight point twenty five?
Speaker 2: Okay, Does that translate? Is one thing to have that conclusion?
Speaker 2: Does that actually translate to more points? Because from perspective,
Speaker 2: that's really we don't care if it's the twenty eight
Speaker 2: yard line. We just what was the old average points?
Speaker 2: So the old average was what, Steve, do you remember
Speaker 2: twenty twenty five?
Speaker 1: Yeah, twenty.
Speaker 2: Because because basically where I'm going with that is they
Speaker 2: say it for the average goes from the twenty five.
Speaker 2: If they move the touch back from the twenty five
Speaker 2: to the thirty, it's actually not that big of a
Speaker 2: deal in terms of the output of points. It's when
Speaker 2: they get to the third, when they make the touch
Speaker 2: back the thirty five yard line, that's going to be
Speaker 2: the biggest spike in points.
Speaker 4: You agree with that, yes, So I think sixteen yards
Speaker 4: is probably worth a point on a drive expectation, so
Speaker 4: four yards would be worth a fourth of a point. Now,
Speaker 4: we got to be careful, all right, Although it's worth
Speaker 4: a quarter of a point in positive expectation for me,
Speaker 4: if I'm playing Todd, I can't just cumulate add ten
Speaker 4: kickoffs and say it's worth two and a half points
Speaker 4: because of my drive stalls, I punts and now that
Speaker 4: just hurt the total. That didn't help it that I
Speaker 4: started with better field position. So to say it's worth
Speaker 4: two and a half is an egregious mistake. You probably
Speaker 4: have to divide by more than two. I think it's
Speaker 4: going to increase scoring by a little over one point
Speaker 4: per game.
Speaker 2: Okay.
Speaker 1: Plus, not all yards are created equally. It's easier to
Speaker 1: get yards when you're on your side of the field
Speaker 1: than it is on the other side of the field.
Speaker 1: So that's another big deal, isn't it.
Speaker 4: Well, that's why I said sixteen yards would equate to
Speaker 4: a point. That sixteen yards is when you're on your
Speaker 4: own side of the field and you're not anywhere close
Speaker 4: to scoring.
Speaker 2: Then what and you, Steve, I asked you this on
Speaker 2: a numbers game on the radio side, So for when
Speaker 2: people come back with I think Joe Peda asked this question. Wait,
Speaker 2: why was points down then? Last year, your response.
Speaker 4: Was, well, there can be multiple different factors. I'm only
Speaker 4: saying scoring is going to increase by one point due
Speaker 4: to the kickoffs.
Speaker 5: Scoring could go down for other factors.
Speaker 4: And famously last year the Cover twos and NFL t
Speaker 4: Tame's got really good at not giving up the big play,
Speaker 4: because hey, if you can drive the length of the field, congratulations,
Speaker 4: one holding call and you're donezo, and you still got
Speaker 4: to score in the red zone.
Speaker 5: So avoid the big play at all costs.
Speaker 2: I also think it's the right with the propensity to
Speaker 2: go for fourth downs now unlike it it used to be.
Speaker 2: And if you if you fail to convert deep in
Speaker 2: another team's territory, right that you know, So just going
Speaker 2: for it more and fourth down does not necessarily translate
Speaker 2: to more points. It could actually create longer fields during
Speaker 2: games for missing fourth downs and in plus territory.
Speaker 4: Yeah, if you have fourth and one from your opponents
Speaker 4: twenty eight and you bet the over, you're like, please God,
Speaker 4: kick the field goal, because if you go for it now,
Speaker 4: you're gonna run another three minutes off on the drive
Speaker 4: and you'd rather just get the bank the three points
Speaker 4: and let's go and start a new drive.
Speaker 2: Exactly, Toddy, your thoughts in game and Dumbo.
Speaker 1: Well, my in game thoughts obviously would don't have National
Speaker 1: Football League to look at. Let me just do the
Speaker 1: Dumbo first, because it's I just this astounds me to know.
Speaker 1: And Brian Kelly, who's generally considered a good coach, he's
Speaker 1: in LSU now doing ozembic and the guy uh with
Speaker 1: two O six And by the way, NFL teams have
Speaker 1: gotten much better at this, much much better at this.
Speaker 1: But the guy at two o six left driving the
Speaker 1: other day in that LSU USC game, you're you want
Speaker 1: to make sure USC has as little time as possible
Speaker 1: to try to score the other way. Now, five years
Speaker 1: ago in the NFL, you used to make this mistake
Speaker 1: all the time. Now they don't. If you notice, in
Speaker 1: the NFL, they won't even be run you hurrying with
Speaker 1: like a minute left because they realize that we don't
Speaker 1: want to give the other team a possession, give them
Speaker 1: a quick three the other way. Of course, I guess
Speaker 1: Brian Kelly never watched an NFL game because with two
Speaker 1: o seven left on first and ten, he runs a
Speaker 1: play instead of going to the two minute warning and
Speaker 1: at least eating into the time below the two minutes.
Speaker 1: Now that the two minute warning college, which by the way,
Speaker 1: is a ridiculous rule. So what I don't understand is
Speaker 1: how you can be paid eight gazillion dollars to be
Speaker 1: the coach of LSU and know there is no advantage
Speaker 1: whatsoever to running a play at two oh six and
Speaker 1: instead letting the clock go down to two. It is
Speaker 1: just unbelievable to me that these guys can continuously make
Speaker 1: And Brian Kelly is a good coach. You wouldn't be
Speaker 1: at LSU if he wasn't a good coach. So that
Speaker 1: just astounds me to no end. That's why the dumb.
Speaker 2: Because, by the way, people should know, we're all on
Speaker 2: a on a text thread together and Todd would not well, well,
Speaker 2: there's another thing that Todd wouldn't stop about. But on
Speaker 2: this particular point, will you actually made it? I think
Speaker 2: a good point, which is Brian Kelly might have been
Speaker 2: trumped immediately by Lincoln Riley. Right.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm trying to remember because I was flipping back
Speaker 3: and forth, I think between the baseball so I'm trying
Speaker 3: I remember the sequence.
Speaker 1: You remember in particular, one forty three left, one forty
Speaker 1: three left the clock running. It's now going to be
Speaker 1: fourth down Lincoln, right. They could go ahead and call
Speaker 1: the time out there or let it run to one fifteen.
Speaker 1: What did he do? Well?
Speaker 2: Do he let it? He let it run a one
Speaker 2: to fifteen for no reason?
Speaker 3: Okay, it is.
Speaker 2: It is amazing. It is such a reminder of oh, yes,
Speaker 2: college football's back. These coaches are there. It's just incredible
Speaker 2: how inane they can be on these things.
Speaker 3: The coaches and the broadcasters. Man, the broadcasters are definitely
Speaker 3: down a level, and some of the NFL guys are
Speaker 3: very prehistoric with their views on analytics.
Speaker 5: But the college.
Speaker 3: Guys, it's a whole other level, especially these lower level games.
Speaker 3: You know that the third or fourth game on ESPN
Speaker 3: two at like you ten o'clock at night, you hear
Speaker 3: some very strange commentary the best moment.
Speaker 4: I mean, the coaches, it all, it's all the same.
Speaker 4: They it's like Todd, what do you do with a
Speaker 4: seven against a three? Well, I don't know, I'll guests,
Speaker 4: you know, it's it's just what you probably know.
Speaker 5: But the you have to know what to do. And
Speaker 5: if you don't know what to do, butN you got
Speaker 5: one hundred other things to do.
Speaker 4: Why not just pay well hill, Hey, hey, you got
Speaker 4: to call time out here, or you know, hey, you're
Speaker 4: you're up twelve, you got to go for two?
Speaker 5: You know, why leave it up to the coach. The
Speaker 5: coaches a hundred other things to do. It's stupid. Just
Speaker 5: have someone tell you what to do.
Speaker 3: Which Crystabal I think did higher. They said he got
Speaker 3: a time management coach.
Speaker 1: Finally, yes, and that guy is by to Mario. I'll
Speaker 1: talk Chrystabal Chriysta ball got a time management coach to
Speaker 1: explain to him that when the other team has no timeouts,
Speaker 1: there is no reason to run a play because you
Speaker 1: probably need a coach to tell you that. I mean,
Speaker 1: you probably haven't been in football your whole life. By
Speaker 1: the way, speaking of which, Bill O'Brien last night did
Speaker 1: something very nice for my under It was it was
Speaker 1: very interesting because they were at the four yard line
Speaker 1: with two minutes left, score twenty eight to thirteen, no
Speaker 1: timeouts left for Florida State, and I was thinking, now,
Speaker 1: is Bill O'Brien, an NFO former NFL coach, going to
Speaker 1: do the NFL thing which is two minutes left and
Speaker 1: the other team has no timeouts? You just take three
Speaker 1: days and the game is over, even at the team's
Speaker 1: four yard line. A lot of these obnoxious coaches, like
Speaker 1: a guy I will bring up right now on in
Speaker 1: game on my little in game segment, don't do that.
Speaker 1: But Bill O'Brien was classy and he took a knee.
Speaker 1: But I just went on my in game segment. One
Speaker 1: quick thing. If you're involved in a Lane Kiffin game
Speaker 1: folks this year, don't think there's going to be any
Speaker 1: running out the clock stuff. They were up fifty two
Speaker 1: to nothing the other day at the half and I
Speaker 1: saw plus seventy nine and a half for Furman. Now,
Speaker 1: I thought to myself, there's no way they're going to
Speaker 1: beat a team eighty to nothing in a college football game.
Speaker 1: They'll be talking about it all week. Well, guess what,
Speaker 1: our boy, Lane Kiffin has it at seventy three to nothing.
Speaker 1: At the end of three, I'm thinking, okay, well, time
Speaker 1: to be classy, Lane, Time to run the ball. Lane.
Speaker 1: He puts in his third string. He's throwing the ball
Speaker 1: all over the field. It's now seventy six nothing. Now
Speaker 1: you're in real danger. Now he puts in his fourth string,
Speaker 1: a white kid who looks like he came from Texas
Speaker 1: Roadhouse grilled busboy area to come in four with string
Speaker 1: and guess what, They're gonna let that guy throw the ball.
Speaker 1: So now it's third and seven at the seventeen yard
Speaker 1: line with like a minute and forty eight to go,
Speaker 1: and he's throwing the ball to try to get it
Speaker 1: in eighty three nothing. Now, congratulations, he didn't do it,
Speaker 1: and we all survived the plus seventy nine and a half.
Speaker 1: But I just be careful, folks. If you're in a
Speaker 1: Lane Kiffin game and it's late, don't bet the under.
Speaker 1: He's gonna try to run it up.
Speaker 4: And I would parlay that over to the Texas Roadhouse.
Speaker 4: If you're still going to Outback Steakhouse, you're you're a
Speaker 4: square of epic proportions. The food is better at Texas
Speaker 4: Roadhouse and it's less expensive.
Speaker 1: By the way, don't go to Texas Roadhouse. By the way,
Speaker 1: I'll tell you why that the roles at Texas Roadhouse
Speaker 1: have crack cocaine in them. I promise you there is
Speaker 1: no doubt in my mind that there is literal crack
Speaker 1: cocaine in the Texas Roadhouse grill roles. Because you cannot
Speaker 1: stop eating them. Oh human can stop beating a Texas roadhouse,
Speaker 1: grill role. I'm just telling you that right now.
Speaker 2: Where's the closest Texas roadhouse to us, Steve out here.
Speaker 4: It's right on Saint Rose, between the m Hotel and
Speaker 4: the Green Valley Ranch Hotel.
Speaker 1: Oh boy, oh boy, I want to stay, Sin, don't
Speaker 1: go there. If you want to stay Sin, don't go there, Stevie.
Speaker 1: I'm telling you it's a mistake.
Speaker 4: No, that's not fair, because the Greg Peterson goes there nightly.
Speaker 5: I think he's a part only.
Speaker 2: Yeah, he loves Texas Roadhouse. He loves it.
Speaker 3: All right, let's do it.
Speaker 2: Week one National Football League, where we just had some
Speaker 2: big news this morning, namely that the San Francisco forty
Speaker 2: nine ers and Trent Williams, their first ballot Hall of
Speaker 2: Fame left tackle, have agreed to terms. Not official yet,
Speaker 2: but looks like it will happen here within twenty four hours.
Speaker 2: And that is large, especially for those of us whose
Speaker 2: instinct it was to play the Jets on Monday night football.
Speaker 2: I know we don't think of offensive linemen as mattering
Speaker 2: to the spread, but god damn if somebody does, it's
Speaker 2: this guy. That's huge for the Niners, who obviously are
Speaker 2: on the heels of resigning Brandon Ayuk, so they are
Speaker 2: in effect running it back on offense, and Trent Williams
Speaker 2: is a massive cog to that wheel. We start with
Speaker 2: our guests with his first best bet. That is you,
Speaker 2: Steve Fezick, what do you got?
Speaker 1: Oh, we're not doing Thursday Night thoughts?
Speaker 2: Oh, Thursday Night thoughts. I guess we have to start
Speaker 2: with that. It.
Speaker 1: I mean, you've been doing the show fourteen years and
Speaker 1: you still don't know the format.
Speaker 2: This may be part of the best bet for somebody,
Speaker 2: or it may not be. Does anybody have with any thoughts
Speaker 2: on that game? Kansas City? What is your consensus line
Speaker 2: right now? Todd, let's have our first consensus discussion. I
Speaker 2: am showing two and a half extra juice, three reduced juice,
Speaker 2: so it's two and a half still counts.
Speaker 1: I guess, I mean, I guess if there's an if
Speaker 1: we feel like it's half the books both ways, you
Speaker 1: can go either way. But see then the problem is
Speaker 1: a guy like Steve will come up and try to
Speaker 1: game the system and not really give any insight. He'll
Speaker 1: just game the system to try to get his record
Speaker 1: looking good. Even though he's just a guest for one week.
Speaker 1: He can't actually think, oh, maybe there's ant there's people
Speaker 1: listening who want some insight about football. But anyways, go on.
Speaker 4: I believe Gils has said this is two point seventy five,
Speaker 4: so we can go lay to and a half or
Speaker 4: take three.
Speaker 5: Am I correctness?
Speaker 1: That's fine?
Speaker 2: This is starting with that. No, we have to have
Speaker 2: a consensus line. We can't. We can't both lay two
Speaker 2: and a half and take three.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and there has to be some kind Yeah, what's
Speaker 1: the lie? I think three. I think the three is
Speaker 1: more prevalent. What do you guys think three is more prevalent?
Speaker 2: If it's three is three three, it is mins three three.
Speaker 5: Yeah, I think money will come on Kansas City. I'm
Speaker 5: passing the game.
Speaker 4: I think if you're going to play it, I would
Speaker 4: go against the Hall of Fame bookmakers over at the
Speaker 4: South Point there they have as two and a half
Speaker 4: lay a dollar ten, so they would be that would
Speaker 4: be where I would play k C. I think Andy
Speaker 4: Reid off of a bye. Obviously this is a pretty
Speaker 4: long buye he's been on. But the concern was, oh,
Speaker 4: the Chiefs, you know, those receivers doesn't look very good.
Speaker 5: Well, I think they're going to be fine.
Speaker 4: I look good in preseason Ravens three new offensive linemen.
Speaker 4: The Ravens defense isn't going to be as good. I
Speaker 4: know there's been a massive adjustment in the points spread
Speaker 4: versus last year.
Speaker 3: I think it's justified.
Speaker 4: Can't say is the better team and their home in
Speaker 4: NFL teams getting the rings. I know that people love
Speaker 4: fading NBA teams getting the rings. That may have worked,
Speaker 4: but it doesn't work in the NFL. Defending champions do
Speaker 4: very well to start this season. I could only look
Speaker 4: to Kansas City. No play for me, though.
Speaker 2: It's a great about The scary thing about the Steelers
Speaker 2: is scary being obviously a scary thing about the Chiefs,
Speaker 2: I should say, is what you were talking about with
Speaker 2: wide receivers last year. Their rate of drops was off
Speaker 2: the charts. Chiefs receivers, including Kelsey and the running backs,
Speaker 2: dropped thirty five passes in their Super Bowl winning in
Speaker 2: last year, the most in the NFL. Other sources, by
Speaker 2: the way, placed the drop total at forty four. Pro
Speaker 2: Football Reference had at forty four. Sports Info Solutions had
Speaker 2: it at thirty nine. You get the idea wide receivers
Speaker 2: fumbled nine times. Of course, everybody remembers the Mahomes to
Speaker 2: Kelsey to Tony hook and lateral for a game winning
Speaker 2: touchdown against the Bills that was called back into illegal formation.
Speaker 2: So that really is the scary thing about the Chiefs,
Speaker 2: like that all went against them last year, and yet
Speaker 2: they still won.
Speaker 1: The Labordi truth we didn't. Taylor Swift also drop a
Speaker 1: plate of nachos that should count as well as well.
Speaker 3: Any played will I don't know, Yeah, I mean I
Speaker 3: think Kansas City wins, and I think the point I
Speaker 3: made on the VSENT Morning Show with Lombardi is what
Speaker 3: what Steve just said about, Hey, Andy Reid, not off
Speaker 3: of a bye but buy same thing extra time to prep.
Speaker 3: I'm just curious what fest thinks. I'm a little bit
Speaker 3: surprised he likes Kansas City because last time the Ravens
Speaker 3: played a game, it was against the Chiefs AFC title
Speaker 3: game and the Ravens.
Speaker 5: Were laying five.
Speaker 3: Now they're getting three. I know, different venues and some changeover,
Speaker 3: but you think as an eight point line movement from
Speaker 3: the last game is justified.
Speaker 4: Here, to quote the great Richie Bulger, who unfortunately passed away.
Speaker 4: He was a long standing member of the Tuesday group.
Speaker 4: When someone make a point like that, well he would
Speaker 4: say that was last year. The Ravens were the better
Speaker 4: team last year. There is nothing to make us think
Speaker 4: that they're better this year, as evidenced by look at
Speaker 4: that season win number Kansas City despite a tough schedule,
Speaker 4: eleven and a half, and they're cutting in line to
Speaker 4: bet Baltimore under eleven right now.
Speaker 5: Last I looked down to ten and a half.
Speaker 1: It will was that its venue?
Speaker 3: No, No, that was in Baltimore. But still eight points.
Speaker 3: I mean homefield is a point and a half, two points,
Speaker 3: it's it's still a bit of an adjustment. I mean again,
Speaker 3: I can't say it's just interesting.
Speaker 1: No, it's fourth. If you make it two points, it's
Speaker 1: four points for the for the but you're still your
Speaker 1: point is still valid. Four points is a lot.
Speaker 2: You're saying you, yeah, thank god you're here, Todd to
Speaker 2: correct us on things that everybody knows about, like Will Well, you.
Speaker 1: Know, people don't know. Will knows it, but the the
Speaker 1: what's it called? People don't know it. When they hear
Speaker 1: eight points, they think, wow, that's a tremendous amount. It's
Speaker 1: not really I'm going to ask.
Speaker 4: You, guys at home field, I'd say under to one
Speaker 4: point eight would you if you if you have to
Speaker 4: go over under two? Well, well says one and a half, right,
Speaker 4: so he goes under.
Speaker 3: I mean it varies home field to home field, but obviously,
Speaker 3: but I'd say under.
Speaker 2: I do worry that everybody. I do worry that everybody's
Speaker 2: on Kansas City like that. That troubles me a little
Speaker 2: that there are very few people that I have heard
Speaker 2: anyway in my little world. Let's say they like Baltimore
Speaker 2: in this game, which seems like a lot of very
Speaker 2: What's that. It's John Harball, right.
Speaker 1: John Harbaugh. This is this is this is John Harball
Speaker 1: lives for being the underdog in a big money game.
Speaker 1: It's like the San Francisco game last year. We've seen
Speaker 1: him like eight million times have like Eyler Huntley playing quarterback,
Speaker 1: He's plus seven somewhere, nobody gives him a damn shot
Speaker 1: in the history of football, and somehow he pulls it
Speaker 1: out of his ass. So this is a John Harbaugh
Speaker 1: situation if there ever was one, in my opinion.
Speaker 2: By the way, little personal note, my ex wife's sister's
Speaker 2: son who I had affected. I had affect him. His
Speaker 2: uncle Gil. He is on. He was on the Boss.
Speaker 2: He was on the Baltimore Ravens practice squad last year
Speaker 2: and this year he was set to be the number
Speaker 2: three running back with Keithon Mitchell shelved for now. He
Speaker 2: was set to be the number three running back behind
Speaker 2: Derrick Henry and Justice Hill. And then he goes and
Speaker 2: breaks his foot in the final preseason game, so it
Speaker 2: was like huge heartbreak for us. He ends up getting
Speaker 2: put on season long ir, which is kind of bullshitty
Speaker 2: quite frankly, my words, not his, because he would be
Speaker 2: healthy in like six weeks. So he they're going to
Speaker 2: have to make a decision on him in six weeks.
Speaker 2: Will they keep them on season long I r to
Speaker 2: kind of stash him from other teams, or will they
Speaker 2: release him and let him go to another team. So
Speaker 2: I'm not sure what's gonna happen. But anyway, that's the
Speaker 2: saga of my guy. Oh and right, but these are
Speaker 2: the these are the NFL stories you don't hear about,
Speaker 2: where guys on the fringe just get absolutely and and
Speaker 2: then here here walks in a fifth round draft pick
Speaker 2: that they drafted to get a to get the number
Speaker 2: three running back spot, who he absolutely outplayed in the preseason.
Speaker 2: The guy on the kid only played a half a
Speaker 2: half a football the fifth round draft pick in the
Speaker 2: in the preseason anyway, So these are the the little
Speaker 2: football stories that exist that we rarely talk about. So
Speaker 2: that was I mean, I sidetracked the whole conversation, but
Speaker 2: it was sad for us. Anyway.
Speaker 1: You guys read that article, by the way, in that
Speaker 1: same vein, did you read that article I sent you
Speaker 1: about the backup quarterback Browning for for uh? I? Did you? You?
Speaker 1: You guys were all like that article because it kind
Speaker 1: of talks about exactly what you're talking about here, like
Speaker 1: life of a guy who's on the edge in the
Speaker 1: NFL and like what happens to him and stuff, and
Speaker 1: you know what, you know, it's just very interesting if
Speaker 1: you if you like that stuff.
Speaker 2: Yeah, and it's also stacked for the draftees right versus
Speaker 2: the undrafted free agents like a whole I got to
Speaker 2: read that article. That's interesting. Jake Browning played great last
Speaker 2: year for the Bengals, and I guess from the outside talk,
Speaker 2: I haven't I haven't read the article, but it seems
Speaker 2: like he was content being a backup in Cincinnati. Yes, no,
Speaker 2: I don't know.
Speaker 1: You got to you got to read the article. It's
Speaker 1: a very interesting article.
Speaker 2: Yeah, okay, cool? What was it in? By the way,
Speaker 2: For those who don't get in.
Speaker 1: I think it's an ESPN plus just search you know,
Speaker 1: Jake Browning and Bengals article ESPN. I'm sure you'll find it.
Speaker 1: But it's like a it's like a real long article
Speaker 1: be giving the whole background of his career and what
Speaker 1: happened in his burrow and blah blah blah. It's very interesting.
Speaker 2: All right, Week one, best bet, Stevie, we start with you.
Speaker 2: What do you got? So?
Speaker 4: I want to avoid rookie quarterbacks week one, especially on
Speaker 4: the road, but my numbers align me on several of them.
Speaker 5: So let's start with Gil. You're Washington. What are they
Speaker 5: calling themselves? The commanders?
Speaker 2: Is that their name is Servia something like that?
Speaker 1: Yeah?
Speaker 5: Yeah, the commodes?
Speaker 1: Yeah.
Speaker 4: Get give me Washington plus the three and a half,
Speaker 4: I make it three. Who is Tampa Bay to be
Speaker 4: laying three more than three?
Speaker 1: Opening? Slow? Your role, Stevie? Is that the line? Gilly?
Speaker 1: And will please tell me that there's not way more
Speaker 1: than three and a half already, Steve, he's trying to
Speaker 1: game the system. Guys, I think it's three, not three
Speaker 1: and a half. What do you guys say it's three?
Speaker 1: It's absolutely three.
Speaker 4: That's interesting because I looked at Bookmaker, Circa and Westgate.
Speaker 4: So my first three books were three and a half.
Speaker 5: So A South.
Speaker 1: Point, Makers in three and a half. That's the only
Speaker 1: one minus one.
Speaker 2: Makers and a half.
Speaker 1: Everyone else three.
Speaker 2: Well three. Let me look at some others here. Maybe
Speaker 2: I should go to the Vegas.
Speaker 5: It's fine, Todd wants to make a three. I'll pass.
Speaker 1: Let me move on.
Speaker 4: I'll take the I'll take another rookie quarterback. Give me
Speaker 4: the Denver Broncos for my first selection.
Speaker 1: I didn't make it three, Stevie. I didn't make it three.
Speaker 1: I sent it to our steamed panel, Willie and Gilly
Speaker 1: because you always have to be kept on your toes
Speaker 1: due to your fact and you're pensioned for trying to
Speaker 1: cut corners and optimize mistakes. Son't going to allow it here.
Speaker 4: I have a fiduccherry responsibility to the listeners to get
Speaker 4: the best winning investment advice that I can.
Speaker 5: You said, it's three.
Speaker 4: That's fine, we're gonna get you know what, Denver Broncos
Speaker 4: plus six. Here is a rookie quarterback that people are
Speaker 4: very concerned about, got lots of reps in preseason, and
Speaker 4: Nicks the I test says he's absolutely ready to go.
Speaker 4: I know a lot of steam on Seattle season win
Speaker 4: went up from seven a half to eight. Denver season
Speaker 4: win went up from from five and a half to six.
Speaker 4: These are not two teams that have a big separation
Speaker 4: in my power rating. I make the game four and
Speaker 4: alf give me the Broncos plus the six.
Speaker 2: Wow, Denver Broncos and bone Knicks plus the points from Stevie.
Speaker 2: Started out Todd, wishev your first best bet?
Speaker 1: I'd just like to give the annual. We are doing
Speaker 1: fiduciary responsibilities here, So I'll do a fiduciary responsibility and say, please, folks,
Speaker 1: if you watch the preseason, just let it all drain
Speaker 1: out of your head. That's not football. Nobody's really trying
Speaker 1: on defense. There are no schemes to trick people, there
Speaker 1: are no good plays. No one's going to show you
Speaker 1: anything good. So please don't overreact to preseason. And the
Speaker 1: reason I'm thinking that is because I saw bon Nix
Speaker 1: do all kinds of great stuff in the preseason. He
Speaker 1: wasn't playing against NFL defenses. The real defenses will come
Speaker 1: in Week one where they go into the defensive coordinator room,
Speaker 1: you know the room, or the you know, defensive line room,
Speaker 1: or the defensive back room, and they'll come up with
Speaker 1: all kinds of schemes to trick the ship out of
Speaker 1: these quarterbacks. So be careful. There's my fiduciary responsibility. I'm
Speaker 1: gonna go with my.
Speaker 2: I've been ranting. I've been ranting about the room thing
Speaker 2: all summer, Like all of a sudden, everybody calls it
Speaker 2: a running back room or a wide receiver room or
Speaker 2: a quarterback room.
Speaker 1: To the room. I'll tell you a room we should
Speaker 1: go to anyways, you know, like, for instance, Experiment Rhino.
Speaker 1: They have a real good bay I know what you mean,
Speaker 1: speaking of which I haven't been one of those Champagne
Speaker 1: that's right, the Champagne room. They've got some real skills. Anyways,
Speaker 1: I would like to go with my first pick. Has
Speaker 1: there ever been a team that needed a Harbaugh to
Speaker 1: coach it? Then a team that has been snake bitten
Speaker 1: for years of football. If they get inside the five
Speaker 1: to win the game in the last two minutes, they
Speaker 1: find a way to lose. They mess up the two
Speaker 1: point conversion. They they we call them the Chargers for
Speaker 1: a reason. Every game goes to the end and they
Speaker 1: always screw it up and they find a way to
Speaker 1: snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. Has ever a
Speaker 1: franchise needed a Harbaugh to come in there and dot
Speaker 1: all the i's, cross all the t's, and stop with
Speaker 1: the nonsensical losses if games you should have won and
Speaker 1: had the talent to win, I am saying that mister Harbaugh. Now,
Speaker 1: by the way, there may be some scandal going on
Speaker 1: about his former place of employment. I don't know. Maybe
Speaker 1: he's got the FBI working for him down in in
Speaker 1: in San Diego or LA wherever they play those games.
Speaker 1: I want the LA Chargers minus. Tell me the point spread, please,
Speaker 1: because I don't want to be you know, you know,
Speaker 1: you know, pulling a Stevie here. Tell me the point
Speaker 1: spread please on the Charger game. Is it three?
Speaker 5: The Chargers are minus three? Minus three? Is the number?
Speaker 2: Yeah? Minus three?
Speaker 1: Ok?
Speaker 2: Minus three?
Speaker 1: Give me the Chargers minus the three against Antonio Pierce
Speaker 1: and the bad decision making Mark Davis. Has there ever
Speaker 1: been a lower upgrade from father to son? From Al Davis,
Speaker 1: one of the brilliant brainiacts of the NFL to Mark Davis,
Speaker 1: one of the dumbest WNBA owners of all time? Has
Speaker 1: there ever been such a drop in ownership? Give me yes,
Speaker 1: the Chargers with all the talent all the years now. Granted,
Speaker 1: I know they lost Keenan Allen. I know they lost
Speaker 1: a bunch of guys. But here's the thing. NFL head
Speaker 1: coach is important. Antonio Pierce versus Harbaugh. Give me Harbaugh
Speaker 1: minus the three to change the culture in Charger Land
Speaker 1: minus three Chargers.
Speaker 2: The Cook family to Daniel Snyder.
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's their.
Speaker 4: Good luck with that planter fasci itis for your quarterback,
Speaker 4: unable to practice properly with the new skill position players.
Speaker 4: And by the way, what percentage of the fans are
Speaker 4: going to be rooting for the Raiders in LA?
Speaker 5: Eight percent?
Speaker 1: Who's the coach is going to be the coach?
Speaker 2: Let's ship talk all of Todd's picks all year. I
Speaker 2: think that's the way.
Speaker 1: I don't care.
Speaker 3: Your question was from father to sonwhere is to drop off?
Speaker 3: I would say George to Halsteiinbrenner and doctor Jerry bust
Speaker 3: A Genie Buss both both come.
Speaker 1: To mind good calls.
Speaker 3: Willy will Hill, all right, I'm up.
Speaker 2: Will the host of these should have been more podcast everybody,
Speaker 2: which again I don't know if I've said this on
Speaker 2: this podcast yet, but I stay on the radio side
Speaker 2: all the time. Will and I had a conversation. I
Speaker 2: don't know if you know this. Will was like, hey,
Speaker 2: I'm going to start a new podcast. I'm like, oh,
Speaker 2: what are you going to call it? And Will is like, well,
Speaker 2: I want to call it the I regret deeply that
Speaker 2: I did not wager more on this previous sporting event
Speaker 2: that I ended up winning money on. I'm consumed with regret.
Speaker 2: And I said, I don't call it that, call it
Speaker 2: shit a bit more. And He's like, oh yeah, good,
Speaker 2: good example, good a good idea. That's where we get
Speaker 2: That's how we got a true story right now.
Speaker 3: Forever Grateful really trimmed that up nicely.
Speaker 2: Well, you're very well christiated.
Speaker 3: My first pick, I will go with a total. I
Speaker 3: will go under forty two Steelers Falcons. I've got two
Speaker 3: defensive conservative coaches. I've got an older quarterback and Cousins
Speaker 3: who hasn't played since he heard his achilles against a
Speaker 3: pretty good pass us for Pittsburgh. And again, these are
Speaker 3: two coaches. Hey, it's fourth and two around midfield. Most coaches,
Speaker 3: most teams are going to go for it.
Speaker 2: Now.
Speaker 3: I'm not sure if either one of these guys is
Speaker 3: going to Russell Wilson will protect the ball, but I
Speaker 3: don't know how much he's going to move the ball.
Speaker 5: To me, this is like a I.
Speaker 3: Don't know twenty one twenty twenty to seventeen ugly game
Speaker 3: field position field goals. I will go under forty two
Speaker 3: Steelers and the Falcons. Steelers offense, and Todd mentioned it
Speaker 3: in the preseason defenses are different. Well, if if preseasons
Speaker 3: any indication, even against vanilla defenses, Russell Wilson couldn't move
Speaker 3: the ball. Field could move the ball a little bit
Speaker 3: by running, But offensive line didn't look great. They look
Speaker 3: like it looks like they need another receiver. Pittsburgh, they
Speaker 3: are gonna be bad on offense. I will go under
Speaker 3: forty two.
Speaker 2: Here, Okay, totals and sides by the way allowed in
Speaker 2: our best bets, not team totals invariably will get somebody
Speaker 2: who will be a guess and be like, hey, can
Speaker 2: I do team totals? And Todd will immediately curse them out.
Speaker 3: Who tried to do like a two team money line
Speaker 3: parlay last year for one of their plays?
Speaker 1: Who was that? I can't somebody try?
Speaker 2: That's right?
Speaker 1: Uh?
Speaker 2: Todd? Thank god Todd Wishnev is here. He is the
Speaker 2: court stenographer. He is also the security for the podcast
Speaker 2: as well.
Speaker 1: You want me on that wall, you need me on
Speaker 1: that wall. Who's gonna save him? Lieutenant Alexander?
Speaker 2: I think it was Kelly.
Speaker 3: Was Kelly on the podcast last year?
Speaker 1: It might have been Kelly.
Speaker 2: Maybe Kelly dreaded. My first best bet is the Arizona
Speaker 2: card plus the six. You're showing six there, Toddy, six
Speaker 2: six the United States Football points. You could have gotten
Speaker 2: this at higher earlier in the summer. I'm still taking
Speaker 2: the six. I think anything six and above is good here.
Speaker 2: I'm not as high. I mean, part of this has
Speaker 2: to correlate with your pre flop opinions on teams. We'll
Speaker 2: obviously learn more once we see them hit the field,
Speaker 2: but I am not high on the Buffalo Bills. I
Speaker 2: think they're missing the playoffs. I think the Stefan Diggs
Speaker 2: absence is actually fairly large in terms of spreading the field.
Speaker 2: The advanced stats back that up. Their answer to losing
Speaker 2: Stefan Diggs was to get Marquez Valdez scantling to us
Speaker 2: spread the field. No one's really scared about that. So
Speaker 2: Josh Allen has had so much success going underneath to
Speaker 2: the Dawson Knoxes and the Daltonkin Caids of the world.
Speaker 2: That's gonna be a little tougher now with wide receivers
Speaker 2: that will not be able to spread the field. Josh
Speaker 2: Allen's gonna have to do a lot single handedly, and
Speaker 2: he's capable. For sure. They're not gonna stink, but I
Speaker 2: don't think they're a playoff team. And if you're giving
Speaker 2: me points, I think week one the instinct should be
Speaker 2: to take as many points in any of these games
Speaker 2: as you possibly could have. And this is one that
Speaker 2: falls in line with that. And Kyler Murray when quarterbacking
Speaker 2: the Arizona Cardinals, they do not suck when he is
Speaker 2: healthy and ready to play. So I'm taking the Cardinals.
Speaker 2: Plus six is play number one for me. We snake here, right,
Speaker 2: I get a second one.
Speaker 3: Go ahead, absolutely, okay, your podcast.
Speaker 2: This is not a display fiduciary responsibility, Stevie, So don't
Speaker 2: go crazy when I say this. We're doing this Tuesday morning.
Speaker 2: The Trent Williams signing did happen? The Jets plus the
Speaker 2: points I already have in pocket at plus four and
Speaker 2: a half. What is it right now, Todd four?
Speaker 1: I see it mostly fours?
Speaker 2: Okay, Stevie pointed out this morning, and he's absolutely right.
Speaker 2: This line is only going to get better for the Jets,
Speaker 2: right The money is going to pour in on the
Speaker 2: Niners here. It could get up, I don't know, could
Speaker 2: go back to six where it was before you had
Speaker 2: all the brand and I you can Trent Williams drama.
Speaker 2: We'll see. So I'm on the Jets. I'm going to
Speaker 2: give the Jets out here again at plus four, knowing
Speaker 2: completely that by the time this game happens on Monday
Speaker 2: night it could be bigger. So just as that as
Speaker 2: a disclaimer, But I'm going to take the Jets plus
Speaker 2: four because that's actually right around the bet that I have.
Speaker 2: I think the Jets are going to be great this year.
Speaker 2: As someone who has ruptured not one but two Achilles
Speaker 2: and as someone who railed against hack doctors on the
Speaker 2: internet last year saying, oh, Aaron Rodgers is right, he
Speaker 2: can come back this year, meaning last year I was
Speaker 2: calling them out. But I'm the first person to say
Speaker 2: he'll be fine this year. He's had a whole offseason.
Speaker 2: Same thing with Kirk Cousins. They've had a whole offseason
Speaker 2: to rehab. They'll be all right. If you can get
Speaker 2: any modicum of quarterback play for the Jets, you're gonna
Speaker 2: be fine, because that defense was fantastic last year and
Speaker 2: their quarterbacking sucked so they had to be on a
Speaker 2: field more. But yet the Williams brothers and Sauce really
Speaker 2: like great players on every level of that defense. I
Speaker 2: think Brees Hall and Garrett Wilson are gonna have fantastic
Speaker 2: seasons on offense, as great as the Niners are, and
Speaker 2: as great as they are with Trent Williams. If you're
Speaker 2: giving me more than a field goal and it is four,
Speaker 2: I'm taking the Jets. And if again, if you want
Speaker 2: the Jets, if you believe in what I'm talking about,
Speaker 2: I would wait to even play it to see if
Speaker 2: it gets even larger by the end of the week.
Speaker 2: So the Jets are play number two. Although I'm not
Speaker 2: exhibiting fiduciary responsibility, pardon me, Willie.
Speaker 3: Minnesota Vikings minus silence.
Speaker 2: By the way, from you guys, I appreciate that stunts.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm just defense. See.
Speaker 3: By the way, Steve Fezik Cash is a big favorite
Speaker 3: to be the only person to try to steal an
Speaker 3: extra half a point in the first round. So cash
Speaker 3: your tickets on that one. I'm gonna go Minnesota.
Speaker 1: Point that was off the board. It was minus four
Speaker 1: thousand in those places.
Speaker 3: I just uh, I'll go Minnesota. I think they got
Speaker 3: a much better roster than the Giants. Have a pretty
Speaker 3: good coaching table. I think a really good coach. They
Speaker 3: have neighbors. Looks like he's going to be a tremendous receiver.
Speaker 3: They don't have much else. Vikings have a good coaching staff.
Speaker 3: I don't love the quarterback obviously in Darnold, but good
Speaker 3: players on both sides of the ball. And I don't
Speaker 3: like Daniel Jones under pressure and Flores likes the blitz
Speaker 3: as much as anybody, and with a shaky offensive line,
Speaker 3: all the blitz packages of Brian Flores, I think at
Speaker 3: his turnovers waiting to happen for Jones. Not much of
Speaker 3: a home field here for the Giants. I will go
Speaker 3: Minnesota Vikings minus a point and a half. And if
Speaker 3: you look at that schedule, they they better win this
Speaker 3: one because it gets pretty tough after that.
Speaker 2: Homer Will's a point. By the way, the last, the
Speaker 2: last winless thing. Felika pointed this out too. If the
Speaker 2: Giants lose this, oh boy, they may not win. For
Speaker 2: they may not win for a while.
Speaker 1: Giants almost like you. And if I come to Vegas
Speaker 1: this weekend and we all play tennis, Gilly and Stevie
Speaker 1: may not win for a while.
Speaker 2: This is big news in our personal lives, Todd wishing
Speaker 2: it for the first time. And how long has it
Speaker 2: been since you've been here? Two years? Three years?
Speaker 1: No, No, it's been about eight nine months. We watched
Speaker 1: the Christmas Games together when remember we watched the Christmas
Speaker 1: Game together when when the Chiefs and the Raiders, the
Speaker 1: Raiders destroyed the Chiefs and then the Chiefs went on
Speaker 1: to win the Super Bowl. By the way, I have
Speaker 1: a folio credit too, so we can we can go
Speaker 1: to some nice dinners. But you know, Stevie's gonna like
Speaker 1: order like the most ridiculous thing of all time. But
Speaker 1: it won't matter because we've got the folio folio.
Speaker 2: Baby, what is that Caesar's folio?
Speaker 1: Yeah, you get, you get, you get like a bunch
Speaker 1: of you know, food credits and stuff. Anyway, my second
Speaker 1: pick is gonna I'm gonna go to that same football
Speaker 1: game that my friend Will the Thrill Hill just called,
Speaker 1: And I'm gonna go to that Minnesota Vikings game. And
Speaker 1: guess what I'm gonna do. I'm gonna go under thunder.
Speaker 1: What is the forty one or forty one and a half?
Speaker 1: I think forty one probably is more fair.
Speaker 5: But forty one and a half? God?
Speaker 1: Is it forty one and a half? Yeah?
Speaker 3: Almost all forty one and a half.
Speaker 1: Okay, so under forty one and a half in the
Speaker 1: NYG versus the M I N N I see Donald
Speaker 1: as the quarterback. Now, if we last time we visited
Speaker 1: miss the Vikings, when they didn't have Kirk Cousins at quarterback,
Speaker 1: they started, they had Dobbs, they had some other garbage
Speaker 1: can quarterback. They had a lot of guys that were
Speaker 1: not really moving the ball. I remember a game against
Speaker 1: the Bears. I believe they scored three points or something.
Speaker 1: They Donald. I don't know. I don't see a lot
Speaker 1: of points. Now they're gonna start going on the road
Speaker 1: and all of a sudden, Sam Donald's gonna start throwing
Speaker 1: up a zillion points. I've never been a Sam Donald fan.
Speaker 1: I hated him at USC, I hated him at every
Speaker 1: place he ever played for in the National Football League.
Speaker 1: I don't think he's good. He might win the game.
Speaker 1: I'm not arguing with Willy on that, but I don't
Speaker 1: think he's going to put up a lot of points
Speaker 1: on the road against the Giants. Now, on the Giants
Speaker 1: side of the ball, the Giants lost, and we all
Speaker 1: know running backs are not worth anything. I believe Saquon Barkley.
Speaker 1: There is the exception. Saquon Barkley was worth a lot
Speaker 1: when he was on the Giants. He also fumbled inside
Speaker 1: the five yard line to cost me two bets. But
Speaker 1: Saquon Barkley was important for the Giants and now he's gone.
Speaker 1: So now you're talking about the Giants without Saquon Barkley
Speaker 1: and with that same moribund offense that is ridiculous. Every
Speaker 1: single year, we can all watch Daniel Jones running down
Speaker 1: the field with nothing in front of him and the
Speaker 1: grass trips him up. You know, I don't see the
Speaker 1: Giants scoring a ton of points here either. Give me
Speaker 1: the under forty one and a half New York Giants
Speaker 1: against the minis and we win. At nineteen seventeen, Willie
Speaker 1: gets off to a one and oh and I get
Speaker 1: off to a one and oh wow, all.
Speaker 2: Right, stevee you got two.
Speaker 4: I would be remiss before I go to my next
Speaker 4: two picks to mention Todd is a seventh star member.
Speaker 4: There are card matching in Vegas. That means, Todd, you
Speaker 4: go to the win, they'll see your seven star. They'll
Speaker 4: make you a win black. You can play golf for free.
Speaker 4: That's a sixteen hundred dollars comp at the win and
Speaker 4: font Blue will match you and you'll become a purple
Speaker 4: or whatever they call it, which gives you two hundred
Speaker 4: dollars and a free spot and a two hundred and
Speaker 4: fifty dollars free dinner at font Blue.
Speaker 1: So do I look van, Steve? Do I look like
Speaker 1: a man who could withstand even four holes at this weight?
Speaker 1: At the win in five hundred degree weather?
Speaker 5: Hey don't check IDs, so Gilly and I can go
Speaker 5: and play. Thank you, Tod.
Speaker 2: Yes, thank you, Todd. Let's do it.
Speaker 1: Let's go.
Speaker 4: I'm sure Todd will have a problem with this, but
Speaker 4: since all of you are you know, you get the
Speaker 4: aggregators plays, you know that I too am on Pittsburgh Atlantic.
Speaker 5: Can I go under? Can I make the same play?
Speaker 5: Because that is my best, my famous of course?
Speaker 4: And you know, well pretty much you know laid out
Speaker 4: all the reasons and just the eye test. When you're
Speaker 4: watching Russell Wilson, he is an understream because he's a quarterback.
Speaker 4: I don't think he's got I think he's going to
Speaker 4: be careful with the ball. He doesn't want to get
Speaker 4: bench too early this year, and he's totally washed.
Speaker 5: He can't do anything, and the Steelers.
Speaker 4: Are just going to hand it off to Nausey and
Speaker 4: to Warren who might play. So I see this as
Speaker 4: like three to three middle of the second quarter. Atlanta
Speaker 4: hasn't had any their cousins, hasn't any playtime in preseason.
Speaker 5: He'll be rusty. So under the forty two? Do I
Speaker 5: still get forty two?
Speaker 1: Tod?
Speaker 5: Do you want to give me a lesser number? I
Speaker 5: get the same number as well.
Speaker 1: You know you don't have to go after the people
Speaker 1: who are trying to keep law and order on the show.
Speaker 1: I mean, if I don't do it, somebody else has
Speaker 1: to do it, and that's fine. You can have your
Speaker 1: forty two. What do you think, Stevie of the first
Speaker 1: quarter in the Steelers Falcons game. I'm gonna guess you're
Speaker 1: gonna like the under, would.
Speaker 5: Like under seven and a half.
Speaker 4: I'm sure it's I just if you can get an
Speaker 4: eight and a half. Tom One has been known to
Speaker 4: go for two, no reason at all.
Speaker 2: No reason whatsoever. That's right.
Speaker 4: So normally seven and a half, eight and a half
Speaker 4: or the same thing, and nine and a half. This
Speaker 4: is the one time, all things being equal, you might
Speaker 4: want to get the eight and a half just in
Speaker 4: case they go Florida State on you and decide to
Speaker 4: go for two to start off the season with the
Speaker 4: bang should they score touchdown.
Speaker 1: I actually saw Tom one more stars.
Speaker 2: More here, Steven, and he said he.
Speaker 1: Said he's not going He's not going to go for two.
Speaker 1: I didn't actually see it, but my friend's my friend
Speaker 1: does Sean season all the time on Forbes walking with
Speaker 1: his wife. He literally lives like like four blocks away
Speaker 1: and a half a block from where the where that
Speaker 1: terrible synagogue shooting was five years ago. He lives right
Speaker 1: over there, so you know he's in the neighborhood all time.
Speaker 2: Yeah, he went with the Montagogue after him, a bunch
Speaker 2: of Steelers. That was the enormous thing about that whole
Speaker 2: incident was how many of the Pittsburgh Steelers and other
Speaker 2: sports folks showed up. I loved Pittsburgh after that. I
Speaker 2: didn't know it was so diverse. First of all, Yeah,
Speaker 2: were you scoring Hill Todd?
Speaker 1: Yes, Squirrel Hill, Squirrel Hill.
Speaker 2: Okay, steee.
Speaker 3: By the way, I'm very happy we're doing this podcast.
Speaker 3: Is I guess we're missing an all time meltdown from
Speaker 3: Paula Vadosa in the we are.
Speaker 2: And I'm checking the score, and it is like Paula
Speaker 2: dropped the first set. She lost, my buddy.
Speaker 3: She's literally crying as she's trying to even the second set.
Speaker 2: She was never let me just update the score for
Speaker 2: one second. God damn it. She lost the first set
Speaker 2: six to two. She was up in the second set
Speaker 2: at least when I saw it five too, and then
Speaker 2: she got broke back and then broke again and now
Speaker 2: just lost it on her serve seven to five. So
Speaker 2: she lost the last at least the last five games
Speaker 2: of that match. Wow, and down goes my plus five
Speaker 2: point fifty on her to win the quarter. I told
Speaker 2: this guy today, I was like, because he had both
Speaker 2: of them, I was like, I would probably hedge a
Speaker 2: little with Navarro, So I'm glad. I told him that
Speaker 2: Mahova was going to get our tend on the home tomorrow.
Speaker 4: I have not followed tennis since Chrissy Everett was playing,
Speaker 4: and I'm getting into it now.
Speaker 3: With you with your picture.
Speaker 4: You've been doing very well, and I got to tell
Speaker 4: you my favorite player as Sabri Lanka.
Speaker 5: That is one savage player.
Speaker 4: I love the way she's like whenever she gets a point,
Speaker 4: Savage Sabri Lanka.
Speaker 2: I'd like to introduce you to a young lady. I'd
Speaker 2: like to call igo Sriantek.
Speaker 3: Who's that Trum?
Speaker 1: I will look, She's a girl. If you met in
Speaker 1: the bar, you'd keep moving.
Speaker 5: For my third selection, Jesus, I will take it.
Speaker 2: Who was that?
Speaker 1: Jesus? In women's tennis, it's important. Activeness is a key factor.
Speaker 1: Stevie will tell you it's worth twenty cents.
Speaker 5: You know who's attractive. The los Angeles Rams cheerleaders, and
Speaker 5: I am on the Los Angeles Rams on a Segway
Speaker 5: plus three and a half.
Speaker 4: This sure has the feel to me to just be
Speaker 4: a shootout, back and forth. I can see the Lions
Speaker 4: getting up in this game, getting up seven.
Speaker 5: Getting up ten. I think the back door will be open.
Speaker 4: I think it will end as a close game. It's
Speaker 4: just a gut feel. You give me that all important hook.
Speaker 4: I do get the hook right, Todd plus.
Speaker 1: Three and a half, Billy, and I think there's a
Speaker 1: lot of three and a half. What do you guys say.
Speaker 2: For the Rams? There is, Yes, there's a bunch of
Speaker 2: three and a half.
Speaker 4: Yeah, give me the Los Angeles Rams and they're lovely
Speaker 4: cheerleaders plus the.
Speaker 5: Three and a half for my third selection.
Speaker 1: I didn't even know that there still was cheerleaders in
Speaker 1: the National Football League? Is it my pick now, Gilly?
Speaker 2: Yes, it is your last.
Speaker 1: Okay. Look, I was gonna go with the dinner and
Speaker 1: in uh thena you know, we're gonna have a big people.
Speaker 1: You got all terrible pals down there, you know, people
Speaker 1: going down there and saying, hey, we got to support
Speaker 1: the team in that. But I was gonna get under
Speaker 1: the forty two to two with all of these guys.
Speaker 1: But I'm gonna do something different because we can't have
Speaker 1: everybody picking the same damn thing. You know, if you're
Speaker 1: Donner at the Rivers and you're watching the stores, let
Speaker 1: me just tell you something right now, they're gonna charge
Speaker 1: you eight billion dollars to park. Unless he got the
Speaker 1: card and the things, you better be careful walk going
Speaker 1: to the Rivers on the football Sunday. Anyways, I'm not
Speaker 1: gonna do I'm not gonna I'm not gonna do the
Speaker 1: Steeler game because everybody's on it. The under. I mean,
Speaker 1: it seems like you guys couldn't be more right. I
Speaker 1: mean that one does seem like it's got underwritten all
Speaker 1: over it by the Arthur Smith former Atlanta coaches, also
Speaker 1: in the neighborhood. I just learned on Northumberland, the same
Speaker 1: street as me. Uh. Anyways, he's in the much richer
Speaker 1: part of score Hope. I am going to go with
Speaker 1: the under. I believe the number is forty four and
Speaker 1: a half in the Titans Bears. Is that correct?
Speaker 2: Yes, forty four and a half.
Speaker 1: Oh, there is forty five.
Speaker 2: And a half.
Speaker 1: I think it's it's more forty four and a half.
Speaker 1: I'm not going to try to steal a half a
Speaker 1: point here under forty four and a half. Now, this guy,
Speaker 1: Caleb Williams, I don't know if you guys have ever
Speaker 1: heard of him. He was, you know, spectacular at the
Speaker 1: Southern California and everything I heard he does hold on
Speaker 1: to the ball a touch too long, and he was
Speaker 1: getting away with that in college. I don't think he's
Speaker 1: going to get away with that in the National Football League.
Speaker 1: I've heard that the Titans have significantly upgraded the secondary.
Speaker 1: I don't know if that's correct or not, but I've
Speaker 1: heard that that they've got a lot of new people
Speaker 1: in the secondary who are very, very good at football.
Speaker 1: So I'm going to say that the rookie corsquarterback. You know,
Speaker 1: I love to fade the rookie quarterback after.
Speaker 6: Everyone's oh Caleb Williams, Oh my god. Brief season, didn't
Speaker 6: see what he did. It was unbelievable. You know what,
Speaker 6: Let's just maybe he's going to be great. Let's slow down.
Speaker 6: Let's watch a game or two and see if mister
Speaker 6: Caleb can do it against you know, when the defensive
Speaker 6: line room, you know, figures something out on how to
Speaker 6: kill the guy. I think he's going to have a
Speaker 6: hard time moving the football at forty four and a half.
Speaker 6: Now the Titans have Will Levis and a new coach,
Speaker 6: so maybe they're not the same Verabel three yards.
Speaker 1: And a cloud of dust. But I still got to
Speaker 1: think that the coach can't be incredibly trusting of Will Levis.
Speaker 1: I mean, they brought him in last year and they
Speaker 1: kind of said, Okay, Will, we're going to give you
Speaker 1: the keys, but slow it down. Let's game management here
Speaker 1: a little bit. I have a feeling they're going to be,
Speaker 1: you know, careful as well. And you know, in a
Speaker 1: national football like forty four and a half, it's a
Speaker 1: lot of points unless you're like a big time over team.
Speaker 1: I don't see either of these teams is big time
Speaker 1: over teams. So give me the under forty four and
Speaker 1: a half. In the Bears game as a partial fade
Speaker 1: of mister Caleb, hold the ball too long, take a
Speaker 1: sack on third and six, Williams.
Speaker 5: Gilly, I gotta chime in here.
Speaker 4: The screen is forty five, and there's even forty five
Speaker 4: and a halfs one place is forty four and a half.
Speaker 4: You could make a case, we should give them forty
Speaker 4: five and a half, but certainly a forty.
Speaker 2: Five okay, because I'm seeing forty four and a halfs
Speaker 2: at Bookmaker.
Speaker 5: And that's only one on my screen. Everybody else is.
Speaker 2: Higher Bookmaker and Pinnacle. I got forty four and a half. Okay,
Speaker 2: So Todd will go according to Steve Fessick, we're giving
Speaker 2: you a forty five.
Speaker 1: I'll take the extra half a point. And by the way,
Speaker 1: if you talk to Stevie long enough, you'll realize that
Speaker 1: half a point is an extremely large amount.
Speaker 2: Okay, will your last your final?
Speaker 3: Hold them again? We're getting four on the Jets, right.
Speaker 2: Four.
Speaker 3: I'll put my money where my mouth is. I talked
Speaker 3: about this team all summer, the fact that they and
Speaker 3: I'm not a huge salad fan, but the fact that
Speaker 3: he won seven games with a quarterback last year quarterback play.
Speaker 3: There's a possibility none of those quarterbacks that played for
Speaker 3: them last year will ever throw another pass in the NFL.
Speaker 3: Maybe Zach Wilson does one day, as he's a third stringer,
Speaker 3: so he's a couple injuries away from playing. Trevor Simeon,
Speaker 3: Tim Boyle. They still won seven games. It's just a
Speaker 3: loaded roster. I would love the fact that I wish
Speaker 3: Trent Williams hol Out would last another week or two.
Speaker 3: I don't love that, but I don't know how good
Speaker 3: they are. The rest of the offensive line spots reading
Speaker 3: some of their beat writers, there's some concern over the
Speaker 3: rest of the San Francisco offensive line. I'll take the Jets.
Speaker 3: I'll take the four. I think this team is loaded.
Speaker 3: I think they're stacked here, and I'll take the points.
Speaker 2: All right. My final one, I say with much trepidation,
Speaker 2: it will be one of my survivor plays. I'm taking
Speaker 2: the New Orleans Saints giving the four against the Kakilaki Panthers.
Speaker 2: When last we saw the Carolina Panthers, Bryce Young was
Speaker 2: having a truly historically epic and I don't think enough
Speaker 2: was made of how bad his season was. Not his
Speaker 2: fault because of his line, but but much of it
Speaker 2: his fault in so many different ways. FTN Sports does
Speaker 2: a great there's a great sort of recap on all
Speaker 2: the different ways it was historically bad. I won't bore
Speaker 2: you with the details. But Bryce Young, to your point
Speaker 2: todd about preseason, Bryce Young comes out and has one
Speaker 2: solidly efficient drive of football in a preseason game, and
Speaker 2: apparently that is enough to now have people on the
Speaker 2: oh Canalis is really going to help Bryce Young bandwagon
Speaker 2: kind of thing. I'm not there. I know Aaron Schottz
Speaker 2: believes that the Saints are going to win the NFC South.
Speaker 2: I don't know who's gonna win the NFC South, but
Speaker 2: I do like giving up for here. You know, I
Speaker 2: don't think the Saints are necessarily so four always concerns
Speaker 2: me as opposed to three. So it's not without some trepidation,
Speaker 2: as I said, but given the choices, that is what
Speaker 2: I land on with pick number three, the Saints minus
Speaker 2: four against the Carolina Panthers.
Speaker 1: I heard that that last nine games in that series
Speaker 1: have gone under the Saints and the Panthers. Is that correct?
Speaker 1: But that looks like a great under too, because the
Speaker 1: Panthers can't score or team total.
Speaker 2: Yeah s Carolina, that's not necessarily good for my minus four,
Speaker 2: by the way, but yes.
Speaker 1: Well, if the Panthers can't get more than ten points,
Speaker 1: it is.
Speaker 2: Yeah. By the way, here is here. I just want
Speaker 2: to read this to you. This is from FDN Sports.
Speaker 2: FTN is where Aaron Schottz now does this thing, the
Speaker 2: creator of DVOA. They say, it's arguably just talking about
Speaker 2: Bryce Young now arguably the most immoralizing rookie campaign in
Speaker 2: the one hundred and four year history of the National
Speaker 2: Football League. They have a stat called dyare third worst
Speaker 2: ever recorded, just beaten out by the rookie years of
Speaker 2: Josh Rose and then David Carr. Sixth all time, sixty
Speaker 2: two sacks taken, third all time, four hundred and seventy
Speaker 2: seven yards lost when he was able to stay upright,
Speaker 2: his nine point one yards per completion ninth lowest ever.
Speaker 2: Take the sack yards away from his completions. It was
Speaker 2: just four point one yards per dropback utter disaster adjusted
Speaker 2: for ERA, that's the tenth worst season ever, not that
Speaker 2: his five point five yards per attempt without sacks was
Speaker 2: much better. That's one of the twenty worst seasons of
Speaker 2: all time that just did for ERA. I mean, it's
Speaker 2: just incredible how bad it was, and I just don't
Speaker 2: see it improving drastically in one offseason. So Saint's minus four.
Speaker 3: You guys, ever, think how lucky the Bears got by
Speaker 3: the Panthers taking Bryce Young and not CJ. Stroud, because
Speaker 3: everyone would be killing the Bears for trading a pick
Speaker 3: that turned into Stroud. The Bears wouldn't have Caleb Williams.
Speaker 3: It would be viewed to such a disaster. Now the
Speaker 3: n is all, what a great trade. You got all
Speaker 3: this stuff back for Bryce Young was a bus Now
Speaker 3: you have Caleb Williams. It's just funny how how lucky
Speaker 3: plays a role in life. Because they had nothing, They
Speaker 3: had nothing to do with who the Panthers took. They
Speaker 3: didn't know who they do, and if it was Stroud,
Speaker 3: it would be an all time blunder to trade that pick.
Speaker 1: Such a Do you guys like that? Do you guys
Speaker 1: like that team total under for Carolina? I like I
Speaker 1: like it a lot, certainly.
Speaker 2: Telling yourself into are you talking yourself into switching one
Speaker 2: of your picks to that tod? Is that what we're here?
Speaker 1: No, you can't do it. You can't do a team total.
Speaker 1: It's like a bonus. Oh yeah, I'm talking about Panthers
Speaker 1: team total under eighteen and a half, seventeen a half,
Speaker 1: somewhere in that range. I mean that seems like are
Speaker 1: they going to really score more than seventeen points on
Speaker 1: the road at New Orleans?
Speaker 4: You know, I got to chime in on these team totals.
Speaker 4: The there's a disturbing trend. I don't know if you
Speaker 4: guys have followed this for extra vague in the marketplace.
Speaker 4: One higher sir taxes, et cetera. H minus one ten
Speaker 4: is going away on.
Speaker 5: These team totals.
Speaker 4: It's pretty much most books are starting to price this
Speaker 4: like at minus one fifteen, and with so many options
Speaker 4: with bet th exchanges and produced vigorous and the like,
Speaker 4: playing sides and even totals, it is rarely correct now,
Speaker 4: in my opinion, to try to wager on team totals
Speaker 4: just because the big is so much higher.
Speaker 1: Hmmm, what if you get a rogue number, Stevie.
Speaker 5: That's different, then go highway.
Speaker 2: Different? All right? Teaser of the week two team six
Speaker 2: point teaser where Todd has excelled here in the last
Speaker 2: couple of years and he likes to remind us Willie.
Speaker 1: Was thirteen and five last year and the teasers too.
Speaker 1: What about Willie? Doesn't he give a I know he's
Speaker 1: up there in Connecticut just checking out Fairfield women's basketball
Speaker 1: most days.
Speaker 2: But the points for me, yeah, it's right, that's exactly
Speaker 2: what it is. Well, what I was trying to get
Speaker 2: at was the fact that you, uh, you're you morph
Speaker 2: depending on how well you're doing what category to what
Speaker 2: is the most important category, the actual pitch.
Speaker 1: Jeezus, look, if you, if you, if you read, if
Speaker 1: you listen back to this the beginning of this podcast,
Speaker 1: I took a special moment to give you a congratulations
Speaker 1: on your thirty eight and fifteen, which is the most
Speaker 1: important category. So please don't disdain show your disdain.
Speaker 4: For my and I would like I would like to
Speaker 4: give Todd wishing to have a special recognition recognition here
Speaker 4: because he has absolutely changed the course of my life
Speaker 4: with our challenge that we had two years ago, and
Speaker 4: I can honestly say it would never have happened had
Speaker 4: it not been for Todd.
Speaker 1: So thank you, Todd. I am stebe. You look great.
Speaker 1: I really do look great.
Speaker 2: I know people who are listening to this podcast will
Speaker 2: not care, well it goes one of my your thoughts.
Speaker 2: They will not care necessarily about about this Paula Badosa match.
Speaker 2: But she was up five to one, five one in
Speaker 2: the final set and from that point forward one I'm
Speaker 2: gonna count the total number of points she won for
Speaker 2: the rest of the match one, two, three, four, five
Speaker 2: five points. The rest of the match.
Speaker 4: Reminds me of you lost twenty two point where I
Speaker 4: won like five points in the last forty.
Speaker 2: Wait, you guys were talking at the same time, will
Speaker 2: you first? What did you say?
Speaker 3: Yeah, my buddy who texted me and this was a
Speaker 3: few minutes ago. He said, at this point, she's lost
Speaker 3: twenty of the last twenty two points and she was
Speaker 3: crying down six five trying to serve and to tie
Speaker 3: the match.
Speaker 2: Oh my god, is there crying? Who told her?
Speaker 3: I bet on her?
Speaker 2: What's that?
Speaker 1: Who told her?
Speaker 3: The reason? Telling the reason this happened?
Speaker 1: Oh?
Speaker 2: Man, that's out.
Speaker 1: I think we may see something similar with the crying
Speaker 1: on Friday at Duck Creek Park. We may see a
Speaker 1: lot of crying from my good friend Gilly and my
Speaker 1: other good friend Stevie as I continuously hit slices toward
Speaker 1: their weak ass backands and they have to like huddle
Speaker 1: up and try to figure out what to do because
Speaker 1: they have no answers. Similar to when defenses went up
Speaker 1: against John Riggins and they told the whole building knew
Speaker 1: it was Riggins right, Riggins left and they still couldn't
Speaker 1: stop it.
Speaker 4: I would play the underdog moneyline parlay of Alexander and
Speaker 4: Feasick for a huge one hundred to one payouts.
Speaker 2: Todd, what would you do if I literally just started
Speaker 2: crying on the tennis core because I couldn't they couldn't
Speaker 2: counter it. I just would have Have you ever seen
Speaker 2: a grown man cry before? What have I just started
Speaker 2: to doing it? Stopped in the middle, stood there, just wept.
Speaker 2: Charlie Brown tears. Teaser of the week, Stevie, what do
Speaker 2: you got?
Speaker 3: All right?
Speaker 5: I'm gonna tease the Cincinnati Bengals.
Speaker 4: I'm gonna play them in my survivor call me a
Speaker 4: square ball the obvious pick.
Speaker 5: I like it so much. I want to tease the
Speaker 5: Bengals to the Bengals, but Todd won't allow that. So
Speaker 5: let me have the Bengals down the mice two and
Speaker 5: a half and then I'm look at the other two people.
Speaker 1: Explain that to people, what you mean by teasing the
Speaker 1: Bengals to the Bengals?
Speaker 4: I was, it's the same bet, so I was just
Speaker 4: but you're right. But you're right, like sometimes at good point,
Speaker 4: like with these week two lines, sometimes you can play
Speaker 4: like only give an example of a bet I should
Speaker 4: have made, and I didn't, and I'm angry, Like, if
Speaker 4: you're going to bet against Florida State against Georgia Tech,
Speaker 4: if you had parlayed that to Boston College, think about
Speaker 4: how good that correlation was. You know, you put be
Speaker 4: against the team twice or for a team. So if
Speaker 4: a book will let you parlay a week one to
Speaker 4: week two, same team, consider it. But in this case,
Speaker 4: I am teasing the Bengals down to my two and
Speaker 4: a half. I know Chase might not play, knowing what's
Speaker 4: gonna win three games this year, they're not going to
Speaker 4: win in the jungle.
Speaker 5: That's not going to be one of them. And then
Speaker 5: I'm going to use them.
Speaker 4: I look at the Wong teasers, and all things being equal,
Speaker 4: I'll play a long teaser with a lower total. I
Speaker 4: know Willie loves the Minnesota Vikings, but that's why they've
Speaker 4: gotten bet up from pick to miss one half, which
Speaker 4: puts it squarely into teasable territory. So give me the
Speaker 4: Giants to lose the game, but plus seven and a half.
Speaker 5: To cover the teaser for my second leg.
Speaker 1: By the way, when I was when I was doing
Speaker 1: research for this podcast, I read that the Cincinnati Bengals
Speaker 1: gave up six yards per play, the worst number in
Speaker 1: the NFL, and I couldn't believe that it did. Does
Speaker 1: that resonate with you, guys? They were the worst? They
Speaker 1: got killed six yards to play.
Speaker 2: I don't remember that. I don't remember that, dude.
Speaker 1: I can't believe that they were worsted. That's unbelievable. But anyways,
Speaker 1: on my what I.
Speaker 2: Forget from one season to the next though, Like if
Speaker 2: you had asked me that week eighteen, would I have that? Probably?
Speaker 1: I would have never guessed that Cincinnati had the worst
Speaker 1: yards per play defense in the whole league. That's that's
Speaker 1: hard to believe. But I'm going to take the obvious
Speaker 1: as well, the Cincinnata Bengals minus the two and a half,
Speaker 1: and instead of doing the Giants like Stevie does in
Speaker 1: the correct standard long scenario, I'm going to do something
Speaker 1: a touch different and go with the Bills on the Now,
Speaker 1: the smart thing would do would be to do the
Speaker 1: money line, but we're just going to Bills pick them
Speaker 1: on the other from six down to zero. I know, Stevie,
Speaker 1: this isn't financially proper to do, but it will also
Speaker 1: be fun because I can root against Gilly's cards. Plus
Speaker 1: six pick at the same time. So I could have
Speaker 1: Bills pick them and Cincinnati minus two and a half
Speaker 1: and hopefully Gilly gets off to a terrible Oh wait
Speaker 1: a second, This just in from rich Stadium. It's first
Speaker 1: in goal here at the eight yard line. The Bills
Speaker 1: we're in the fourth quarter, was seven minutes to play.
Speaker 1: Bill I was leading thirty eight to six. Josh Allen
Speaker 1: handed out the ball off. He's going in forty five
Speaker 1: does six? Holy cow, we haven't said the Bills do
Speaker 1: this and Yees run it up the score.
Speaker 4: As as Todd mentioned, the reason he he wants to
Speaker 4: say it's mathematically and correct is that when you tease
Speaker 4: each leg, if you have six point teaser minus one
Speaker 4: twenty each leg, you're laying approximately two eighty. That's essentially
Speaker 4: what a teaser is. So when you put the Bills
Speaker 4: in and a teaser, mathematically it's minus to eighty. But
Speaker 4: you can play the money line mius two sixty. So
Speaker 4: that's what Todd was referring to. You can get twenty
Speaker 4: cents better on the bet if you just play the
Speaker 4: Bills on the money line.
Speaker 1: Also, Bills Sidhawks is an example of that, right, Bill
Speaker 1: Seahawks would be a good example. Yes, go ahead, gild.
Speaker 2: Long teaser definition for those again. Stanford Wong pseudonym, real
Speaker 2: name John Ferguson wrote a book The Art was the
Speaker 2: Art of Sports Betting. I believe it was called or
Speaker 2: something sharports Bet Sports Bettingford.
Speaker 4: I knew Stanford before he wrote the book. I mean
Speaker 4: we we talked about teasers back in the nineties together.
Speaker 4: So yeah, before there were.
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, he identified the most the most plus EV
Speaker 2: teaser legs. Home favorites of between seven and a half
Speaker 2: and eight and a half excuse me, seven and a
Speaker 2: half and eight and a half or seven and a
Speaker 2: half in yeah, eight and a half teas down home
Speaker 2: dogs and road dogs of between one and a half
Speaker 2: and two and a half teas upwards. So you're going
Speaker 2: through the threes and the sevens. Now, there's gonna be
Speaker 2: people who listen to this are like, that's still the case.
Speaker 2: Then it depends on the total too. Yes, all of
Speaker 2: those things are factored into it. But those are the
Speaker 2: teaser legs.
Speaker 1: That by the way, is it still Rich Medium in Buffalo?
Speaker 1: I believe I said we were coming. We were coming
Speaker 1: by rich Stadium.
Speaker 2: By the way, road favorites of seven and a half
Speaker 2: to eight and a half are not part of that.
Speaker 2: It should be noted the best part of that Todd
Speaker 2: play by play for those because he don't have the
Speaker 2: visual here, Todd held his uh, his right hand up
Speaker 2: to his ear, just his little stubby finger hands that
Speaker 2: he held up play as if he was getting the
Speaker 2: feet in. It's so great. Was my turn?
Speaker 1: There will will he will willill.
Speaker 3: It's my turn. But I want to know. I want
Speaker 3: to know how we got from Ferguson to Wong. How
Speaker 3: did that? How did that leave take place?
Speaker 2: Yeah, good question, Stevie.
Speaker 1: You know well Asians, I.
Speaker 5: Don't, I do.
Speaker 4: I know his daughter went to he lives in Lahoy
Speaker 4: and his daughter went to Stanford. So that's where where
Speaker 4: Stanford came from. The long you know, I think it
Speaker 4: was a term in black deck. He kind of invented.
Speaker 5: You'd walk around just side count the shoes and when
Speaker 5: the count went good, he would sit down and Wong
Speaker 5: and I only playing on the positiveccounts.
Speaker 3: Yeah, and was that called her long?
Speaker 1: But why was it called Wong, Stevie? They could have
Speaker 1: said he uh, he snooker.
Speaker 2: I'll get back to you, Stanford snooker identified the best
Speaker 2: plus EV teaser legs.
Speaker 1: My friend. My friend is like it's he calls it sniggling.
Speaker 1: He's always shniggling for an extra. You know, he's calling
Speaker 1: the Starbucks manager. It's like unbelievable.
Speaker 2: By the way, I grew up the old Tom Disorta story,
Speaker 2: Tom Lasorda, like, you know, Tommy John had the surgery
Speaker 2: to repair his elbow and it became forever known as
Speaker 2: Tommy John surgery. And Tommy Losorda's line was, thank god
Speaker 2: it wasn't Billy Rebarkowitz, because that's what we have known it.
Speaker 2: We would have known it as all these years. Yeah,
Speaker 2: I'm sorry, go ahead.
Speaker 3: I mean I grew up hearing thinking that teasers were
Speaker 3: sucker bets, and I've actually heard it. I still hear
Speaker 3: it once in a while. If you're playing teasers, it's
Speaker 3: a sucker. They call it teaser for a reason. I mean,
Speaker 3: if you're getting the right price. And that's a point
Speaker 3: of contention now, I guessespecially in Vegas where it's hard
Speaker 3: to find one ten, it's hard to find one to fifteen,
Speaker 3: they're jacking up the prices. But man, if you pick
Speaker 3: your spots, you'll probably do pretty well.
Speaker 1: With the teasers.
Speaker 3: That being said, I'm gonna throw the Bengals in with
Speaker 3: everybody else. I'll be a little different. I'm surprised nobody
Speaker 3: took the Cowboys lower total. We haven't seen Watson. It's
Speaker 3: always something with Watson's shoulder. There's always a cloud of mystery,
Speaker 3: and you wonder if you get to the point where
Speaker 3: it's just so bad with that contract. I don't know
Speaker 3: if they can get out of it, but it's not
Speaker 3: gone well. And that's a lower total forty one and
Speaker 3: a half. I would expect that to be a close
Speaker 3: game between the Cowboys and the Brown so Bengals from
Speaker 3: eight and a half to two and a half Cowboys
Speaker 3: the opposite way two and a half up to plus
Speaker 3: eight and a half is my two team Wong teaser.
Speaker 1: Stevie give us a little shouldn't Stevie tell us a
Speaker 1: little bit about teasing, pricing and stuff like that. I
Speaker 1: feel like he should be talking about explaining where it
Speaker 1: used to be where it is now. All that stuff.
Speaker 4: Started even money then it became minus one ten forever,
Speaker 4: the sharp money they talk about. Andy algorithm discovered the
Speaker 4: teasers being advantageous. Ad did Stanford Wong then became Mius
Speaker 4: one twenty and now Mius one twenty is I believe
Speaker 4: Dunzo in Vegas. I don't think anybody has Mius one
Speaker 4: twenty more, but possibly.
Speaker 5: Caesar's still has it.
Speaker 4: But offshore you can still play it at several books,
Speaker 4: including DraftKings and book makers, so it's still out there,
Speaker 4: but it is becoming harder and harder.
Speaker 5: As well said to find.
Speaker 1: It Stevie, what about the seven and seven and a
Speaker 1: half point.
Speaker 4: The six and a half and seven point teasers, or
Speaker 4: at Mius one thirty and Mis one forty, and if
Speaker 4: certainly playable in the right spots, like if it wouldn't
Speaker 4: be unusual, you might get someone a team, for instance,
Speaker 4: is and there's some bad rules on ties louse In
Speaker 4: some places ties lous automatically even if your other teaser
Speaker 4: like wins. So if ties lose and you have like
Speaker 4: a team that's a seven, say that they're an eight
Speaker 4: point favorite, instead of teasing them down to mis two,
Speaker 4: you almost always should use the six a half points teaser,
Speaker 4: always teased to a half point number such that it
Speaker 4: can't land on the number because you've got bad ties
Speaker 4: rules rules within those teasers.
Speaker 5: Check your local rules at your book.
Speaker 2: Good question, that's a good point. Good answer, Stevie. And
Speaker 2: for those who are way.
Speaker 1: We just talked before you go on, should we should
Speaker 1: we just stop a second and really explain, because Stevie
Speaker 1: said that really fast. For for novices out there, what
Speaker 1: he's saying is there are books that if one leg ties,
Speaker 1: you lose your thing, so you might as well go
Speaker 1: six and a half to get that extra half a
Speaker 1: point so it doesn't have any chance of landing on two.
Speaker 1: I just wanted to slow that down because he said
Speaker 1: it fast, and I'm sure we all understood it, but
Speaker 1: you know, the the the the the listener needs to
Speaker 1: understand it too. Do not play down to two?
Speaker 2: Yeah, Todd, it's your podcast or whatever you want to
Speaker 2: say and do. Sorry, I was just rut Jay Rude,
Speaker 2: my buddy at the former vice president of Race and
Speaker 2: Sports at MGM, used to hate that they would get
Speaker 2: teasers refunded on a tie. Used to hate that aspect
Speaker 2: of it. Is that what you were talking about just now?
Speaker 4: Yes, I would dive around the dumpsters to try to
Speaker 4: to try to find them, though, Gilly, because people would
Speaker 4: throw them out.
Speaker 1: You ever find any there? It is?
Speaker 3: Did you ever find any?
Speaker 2: Think about that. Think about that two team teasers where
Speaker 2: you had a loss and a tie. The average better
Speaker 2: would think to themselves, oh that's a loss, but you
Speaker 2: can't tease down to one, so it was actually a
Speaker 2: refund and so Stevie would dumpster dive for the refunds.
Speaker 1: Did you find any? That's a great question.
Speaker 5: Will it's a living.
Speaker 2: Ever find living?
Speaker 1: Did you, Steve? Did you really find some?
Speaker 4: I did, yes, but they're like ten dollars, Yeah.
Speaker 3: I can. The best is the nicest guy, like we
Speaker 3: joke around.
Speaker 5: He's the nice I.
Speaker 3: Can only imagine Fez's eyes lighting up when he sees
Speaker 3: that it's a live teaser and he can be funny.
Speaker 1: Even it's ten dollars.
Speaker 3: Just the fact that he gaves I can only imagine
Speaker 3: your face like a fastball hitter gave a two old fastball, right, you.
Speaker 4: Know, I know we're running late, but this is a
Speaker 4: real good advantage play. Like if you do play a
Speaker 4: two team teaser where ties push all right, and you
Speaker 4: and you and you have a second.
Speaker 5: Leg that's open, which you can do with some books,
Speaker 5: and that teaser is about to lose. Your first leg's
Speaker 5: about to lose.
Speaker 4: And you have an open spot, hurry quickly fill it
Speaker 4: and take a minus nine favorite down to minus three
Speaker 4: because you can sometimes resurrect to push. Now you're not
Speaker 4: trying to win the second leg. You need to tie
Speaker 4: the second leg. So you want to take a minus
Speaker 4: three to a plus three or a minus nine to
Speaker 4: a minustere And now you have a ten percent chance
Speaker 4: to get your money back or close to it if
Speaker 4: you can get that second leg put in. If you
Speaker 4: don't put it in, when the game goes final, they
Speaker 4: just graded as a loss. But if the second leg
Speaker 4: is in there, now you got a chance to resurrect it.
Speaker 2: And what I was trying to say earlier before Todd
Speaker 2: kept interrupting, was when Stevie was talking about the you know,
Speaker 2: the incremental increase and the juice on these teasers where
Speaker 2: the people who are new to sports betting are new
Speaker 2: to teasing or whatever whatever betting vehicle there is when
Speaker 2: the when the juice increases, essentially the way of putting,
Speaker 2: that is, your percentage of hits then has to incrementally
Speaker 2: increase as well for it to be successful. So the
Speaker 2: higher they make that juice, no matter how incremental, you know,
Speaker 2: you'll go from you know what the you know, I'm
Speaker 2: just making up numbers now, but seventy seven point four
Speaker 2: percent of trying to hit them to seventy eight percent
Speaker 2: to seventy nine percent. So every time they do that,
Speaker 2: it just becomes harder to beat. And it may not
Speaker 2: seem like that. You're like, oh, it's the same teaser.
Speaker 2: What do I care if it's minus one twenty percent
Speaker 2: minus one fifteen No, over the long haul, it completely matters.
Speaker 2: I want to point that out.
Speaker 5: Harley Carr got nine Teamer pays right now pays. Let
Speaker 5: make sure I get this right.
Speaker 4: The nine teamer pays used to pay four hundred to
Speaker 4: one and now it pays two hundred to one. So
Speaker 4: it's been reduced by fifty percent from like ten years ago.
Speaker 4: It's gotten really really hard to win in Vegas.
Speaker 2: Are we all playing Survivor? Is everybody in Circus Survivor? Yes? Yes, Toddy,
Speaker 2: are you in it?
Speaker 1: I can try to get there if I can get
Speaker 1: there this weekend, like I'm trying.
Speaker 3: We have a returning champion on the podcast. What do
Speaker 3: you mean is he played? He's a returning champion. He's
Speaker 3: got the jacket.
Speaker 2: Well, that's right, Steve Fezick is a was an investor
Speaker 2: in a in A one of the four that chopped
Speaker 2: at the end. So Stevie got himself his picture with
Speaker 2: the check and actually got himself a circus survivor check.
Speaker 2: That's I forgot it.
Speaker 4: So the documentary instead of making four hundred thousand, I
Speaker 4: made three hundred and ninety nine thousand because it cost
Speaker 4: that the jacket cost me about.
Speaker 2: You pay for the jacket? Yeah, he bought the jacket.
Speaker 2: Now let me ask you a question, Todd. If you
Speaker 2: are just an investor, no matter how much you helped,
Speaker 2: you're an investor, should you buy the jacket?
Speaker 1: First of all? That is just see this is an
Speaker 1: example of Stevie Twitter. That's Stevie Twitter who buys the
Speaker 1: jacket in an incredibly ridiculous move.
Speaker 3: When I can't take.
Speaker 1: Halfway through the wait, Willie, I want you to hear
Speaker 1: your opinion in all it's it's, it's, it's, it's but
Speaker 1: one second, do you agree with me, Willy?
Speaker 2: Not until Tod stops talking. Will because I.
Speaker 1: Was in the middle.
Speaker 2: I was in the middle. I'm never in the middle
Speaker 2: when you interrupt me.
Speaker 1: Go ahead, Will Jesus, would you agree with me that
Speaker 1: is the most fugazy thing you ever heard, somebody buying
Speaker 1: the jacket when he invested halfway through the season. I mean,
Speaker 1: what all power to him. I tipped the hat for
Speaker 1: being an investor. Brilliant, brilliant, brother, You don't buy the jet,
Speaker 1: that's just ridiculous.
Speaker 3: Will I will defend my client, mister fick here, I
Speaker 3: will defend my client. I heard the story. I think
Speaker 3: I give it out another podcast to tell the story
Speaker 3: where he was with the winners or whatever and the
Speaker 3: guy who was in charge of the jacket said, hey,
Speaker 3: you want a jacket, and I think Steve said yes,
Speaker 3: and then he's just like give me your card. And
Speaker 3: Steve was kind of in the awkward position like I
Speaker 3: don't even know how much this thing costs. I'm just
Speaker 3: kind of giving you to my card. And I think
Speaker 3: Steve was putting awkward position. Is that correct, mister Fei.
Speaker 4: He measured me for three minutes. He took all my
Speaker 4: measurements and like even like what touched my another regions
Speaker 4: and the like, and then I felt like, well, I'm
Speaker 4: kind of pot committed at this point. To be fair, Also,
Speaker 4: Gilly knows that hey, Greg wan and he did Greg
Speaker 4: Jones did a fantastic job. But Gilly knows, how many
Speaker 4: hours do you think I invested on that Survivor.
Speaker 5: Entry in December per week?
Speaker 2: Gily, Well, that's what I was good. That's what I
Speaker 2: was going to say. That Stevie absolutely helped him and
Speaker 2: then spent a lot of brain power and time. I mean,
Speaker 2: it's a collectively, you probably spent more than twenty four
Speaker 2: hours on it. You say, yeah, like you were always
Speaker 2: locked into that thing.
Speaker 1: Well, there was two hours when we're at that bar.
Speaker 1: When we were at that bar at Nobu and Stevie
Speaker 1: was ordering all off the folio. You guys were discussing
Speaker 1: it for at least two hours there that evening while
Speaker 1: I was talking to those two ladies, who were nice
Speaker 1: doctors from the Midwest.
Speaker 4: I've never seen somebody beef Wago tacos so quickly.
Speaker 5: It was like speeding breakfast.
Speaker 2: Steve and I are having this high level conversation that
Speaker 2: Toddy is just locked into these two girls.
Speaker 1: They were loving me. Those ladies were loving me. I see,
Speaker 1: I am what they call it a world class opener,
Speaker 1: and I'm like the Yankees bullpen in closing. I don't close.
Speaker 1: I can give you a strong six innings. I can
Speaker 1: open anyone at any time. I'm going to give you
Speaker 1: six innings. I'm gonna give a hundred pitches, and then
Speaker 1: I'll hand it over to me as the closer, as
Speaker 1: the Yankees bullpen, and I'll blow up.
Speaker 4: You are the Jack Billingham of starting pictures. Oh, the
Speaker 4: white red machine, not.
Speaker 2: The Don Gullet, the Jack Billyham.
Speaker 1: Jack Don Gullett was a reliever.
Speaker 5: Gollett could close.
Speaker 1: Baby.
Speaker 2: Don Gullett was a starter, wasn't he.
Speaker 1: No? He was a.
Speaker 5: Gaming of the seventy five World Series, gave up three runs.
Speaker 1: He started Game seven.
Speaker 2: Oh see, my little boy brain, I thought he was
Speaker 2: a starter. Normal, Okay, gotcha. Last thing? So survivor. So
Speaker 2: I have multiple entries?
Speaker 1: Really, what about your teaser, Gilly?
Speaker 2: Oh that's right. I'm sorry because I never got that out.
Speaker 1: Cincinnati guys, maybe this should be my Maybe this should
Speaker 1: be my podcast. You're right, go ahead.
Speaker 2: No, No, what I'm finding is when I talk on
Speaker 2: this new setup, you guys don't hear anything that I'm
Speaker 2: saying when there's multiple people talking, because I'm literally talking
Speaker 2: to no one Cincinnati Bengals, like everybody else. I wanted
Speaker 2: to say the Giants just to make it a perfect
Speaker 2: Wong teaser. But I cannot bring myself to do that.
Speaker 2: So I am going to do Uh, I'm gonna do
Speaker 2: the Jets. I'm going to tease them up to ten,
Speaker 2: which I know is not standard long play, but that's
Speaker 2: what I'm gonna do. Yeah, I know Stevie's his head's
Speaker 2: ready to blow.
Speaker 5: Said Don.
Speaker 4: When I said Don gull was a closer, I meant
Speaker 4: he wet nine innings. He of course is a starter.
Speaker 4: Coffee is for closers, Todd, Coffee is for closers.
Speaker 2: Yeh.
Speaker 1: By the way, what you're.
Speaker 2: Saying, Don Gullett was not. Don Gullet was not a
Speaker 2: regular season starter. He was not.
Speaker 4: No, he was a starter, but he would pitch nine innings,
Speaker 4: whereas Jack Billingham would pitch five or six.
Speaker 2: They're both okay, I thought John Gullett was a starter.
Speaker 2: All right, Yeah, all right, okay, Survivor. I am going
Speaker 2: to I'll just I'll just do this out of order.
Speaker 2: I think I'm gonna have a Bengal or two, but
Speaker 2: I think I'm also going to have a Saints or
Speaker 2: two because this is the most natural spot to play
Speaker 2: The Saints I don't know if I'm going to have
Speaker 2: a third play in the event that there's complete carnage
Speaker 2: in Week one, but I know that I'll have at
Speaker 2: least a couple entries on those two teams.
Speaker 5: Stevie, I think seven Bengals, maybe two Saints. I might
Speaker 5: go Vikings. I looked at their schedule.
Speaker 4: They don't have any easy games the entire year, so
Speaker 4: I'm like, as far as a contrarian trying to win
Speaker 4: it all, maybe I take Minnesota for one pick.
Speaker 2: Yeah. Again, my theory is with these survivor entries, I
Speaker 2: think there's a point of redundancy. I don't know if
Speaker 2: having beyond five entries really matters in the end, because
Speaker 2: I think you ultimately play one optimally, and if you
Speaker 2: have five or ten, you're just doing things percentage wise,
Speaker 2: So it might it might last you a week, Lon'
Speaker 2: I don't know. I don't know if the five thousand
Speaker 2: dollars extra entry ultimately pays off for you in the end.
Speaker 4: I think it has plus ten percent ROI instead of
Speaker 4: plus forty percent ROI. It's not as good, okay, but
Speaker 4: I mean it's seventy eight people are going to die
Speaker 4: or not submit their picks.
Speaker 1: I like that.
Speaker 2: I think that's probably right. That's amazing. People don't submit
Speaker 2: their picks.
Speaker 1: The Actuarial Table by Stevie Fesick ten thousand entries and
Speaker 1: forty two of them are gonna die. But wait, we're
Speaker 1: hearing there's more diabetics in this year. So I believe
Speaker 1: that's going to move it up similar to the kickoff.
Speaker 1: We're going to have forty seven people dying, and that
Speaker 1: moves your ROI up so excellent. By the way, were
Speaker 1: you able to do ten last year? Was it five?
Speaker 1: Was that a new thing?
Speaker 2: Ten ten was last year? Ten ten was new last year?
Speaker 2: Will what do you play?
Speaker 3: Be a little different? And this isn't my official one yet,
Speaker 3: but I'm looking at Seattle. I just think I remember
Speaker 3: this time last year it was like, Wow, Kenny Pickett,
Speaker 3: what a preseason. I'm feeling a little that with bow
Speaker 3: Nix or Okay, you don't want your rookie quarterback to
Speaker 3: look awful, and he's looked good. That's a good start,
Speaker 3: but that's still on the road against the tough team.
Speaker 3: McDonald's a good defensive mind. You know, people in the
Speaker 3: league seem to respect they have good receivers throwing bon
Speaker 3: Nicks in that environment, I think Seattle. So I haven't
Speaker 3: officially played it, but that's where I'm looking. I almost
Speaker 3: made that one of my picks, but out of respect
Speaker 3: for Fez, I laid off because he took the Broncos
Speaker 3: plus the six.
Speaker 2: Out of respect for Fez Todd, do you have any
Speaker 2: thoughts on this? You haven't really looked into it.
Speaker 1: On The Survivors yet. No, I'm gonna. I'm gonna. I
Speaker 1: think it's like obvious, like what you guys are saying. Anyways, Right,
Speaker 1: you have to pick the Bengals are the Saints?
Speaker 2: Right? I believe I have some of those.
Speaker 3: I think the Bengals. Man, it's you just pick somebody
Speaker 3: else and hope they get upset somehow. They've struggled, really,
Speaker 3: and this trend has been discussed. They've struggled last two
Speaker 3: three years. Early in the season. They've really got off
Speaker 3: the slow starts, for whatever that's worth.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's just that the Patriots are so bad, so bad,
Speaker 2: so you probably get away with it. And I believe
Speaker 2: a Survivor again, I'm I believe in game theory, but
Speaker 2: I do believe the first five weeks you probably should
Speaker 2: have humility in what your convictions are and not try
Speaker 2: to get too crazy. Just my just my opinion on that.
Speaker 2: And after that you can get old frisky with the
Speaker 2: game theory. Final two questions Christmas and the final two
Speaker 2: questions Christmas.
Speaker 1: By the way, the Christmas thing and the Thanksgiving thing
Speaker 1: look extremely challenging this year because it doesn't look like
Speaker 1: there's things. I mean, it doesn't look like they're shot
Speaker 1: winners on those Thanksgiving games. It looks like you're gonna
Speaker 1: have a hard time there.
Speaker 2: Yeah, extremely challenging this year. I think you have to
Speaker 2: save I had written them down. There's one team that's
Speaker 2: available for both. Is that Kansas City that was available
Speaker 2: for both Thanksgiving Christmas. By the way, what top I
Speaker 2: was looking at the Vivor one the circus survived, Hey,
Speaker 2: Thanksgiving and Christmas? Quirk to it? Okay, Final two questions
Speaker 2: Question number one of the big favorites on the board,
Speaker 2: and there aren't that many of them in week one
Speaker 2: because they usually defined it as six and a half
Speaker 2: point favorites are more. But of the big who is
Speaker 2: the Michael the most likely to lose? Outright? The Bengals
Speaker 2: eight and a half point favorites at home against the Patriots.
Speaker 2: The Bills will conclude this six point favorites at home
Speaker 2: against the Arizona Cardinals. The Seahawks teetering on a six
Speaker 2: point favorite at home against the Broncos. Those are the
Speaker 2: biggest choices on the board. Who's the most likely to
Speaker 2: lose outright, Steve Seattle Seattle. That would play into his
Speaker 2: pick from earlier. Will.
Speaker 3: I had under Arizona last year. I watched them a lot.
Speaker 3: I was so lucky to cash that ticket. They were
Speaker 3: a feisty, just painting the ass team. I'll say Arizona.
Speaker 3: I think they can move ball with Murray. I'll oh Arizona, Dotty.
Speaker 1: I think Seahawks also because you know that Geno Smith.
Speaker 1: You know, come on, can we stop with everyone keeps
Speaker 1: resurrecting this guy like he Oh Geno Smith, He's better,
Speaker 1: come on, He's still Geno Smith. Come on, all right?
Speaker 2: So two for the Seahawks. I'm with Will. I'll say
Speaker 2: the Bills. So two Seahawks and two Bills. And then
Speaker 2: the final question, if you lived in a bizarre world,
Speaker 2: you had to make a bet on the side on
Speaker 2: each and every one of these Week one games. But
Speaker 2: you've got one pass one game that you wanted no
Speaker 2: part of, Steve, what's the game you would not touch
Speaker 2: on the side.
Speaker 4: I like to avoid four point spreads because I can't
Speaker 4: get any help.
Speaker 5: I can't lay three.
Speaker 4: Who cares if I get four and a half or
Speaker 4: five or LA three and a half, it's not going
Speaker 4: to land on the number, so that the Bears Tennessee
Speaker 4: Titans would qualify. Also, I have no idea how good
Speaker 4: Caleb's going to be to start his career, so I
Speaker 4: passed for both those reasons.
Speaker 2: Yeah, there's a lot of good answers to this one
Speaker 2: in week one.
Speaker 1: Todd, Yeah, well, I mean, of course, we have no
Speaker 1: idea what's going to be. I don't really want to.
Speaker 1: I would just want to watch the Commanders against the Buccaneers,
Speaker 1: because you know who is Jaden Daniels. Is he the
Speaker 1: LSU amazing, unbelievable guy who would just go up and
Speaker 1: down the field or you know, and the Buccaneers, you know,
Speaker 1: I don't know. I'm still not a real big fan
Speaker 1: of that team. So I'd really just like to watch
Speaker 1: and see what happens in that game.
Speaker 3: Wee Packers Eagles love. We're giving him a lot of
Speaker 3: benefit of the doubt for the second half of last season.
Speaker 3: He was not very good. The first half, Okay, he's
Speaker 3: probably pretty good. And the Eagles same sort of thing.
Speaker 3: People are very quick to forgive the second half of
Speaker 3: last season the playoff game. They got better in the offseason,
Speaker 3: they got Barkley, they had a good draft. Maybe, But
Speaker 3: I just I understand the optimism for Philly, but I'm
Speaker 3: skeptical both these teams. I don't feel like I have
Speaker 3: a great feel for so Philly Green Bay, and that's
Speaker 3: gonna be tough on because that's a standalone game on
Speaker 3: Friday night, so I'll have to maybe find a prop
Speaker 3: or something. But I don't like cider total there in Brazil.
Speaker 2: It should be noted I'm with you, toh Buccaneers commanders
Speaker 2: for no other reason than of a lot of games
Speaker 2: that I have really no feel for, that's the one
Speaker 2: that I probably have the least feel for of the bunch,
Speaker 2: because I don't know who the who the Commodorees are
Speaker 2: going to be, and I certainly don't know who the
Speaker 2: Buccaneers are going to be. By the way, the NFC
Speaker 2: South being a division where you hear some people say, oh,
Speaker 2: I got the Bucks to win it, and then some
Speaker 2: people say I got the bucks to finish last. So
Speaker 2: I have no idea with that commodes bucks the game.
Speaker 2: I want no part of gentlemen, We've done all we
Speaker 2: can do. I believe we could have we could have
Speaker 2: done more. Maybe perhaps Stevie hates that, that tagline that
Speaker 2: I end every Numbers game with that we've done all
Speaker 2: we can do. You hate that, don't you see?
Speaker 5: Well, you just said we could do more.
Speaker 2: Well on this podcast, I said we could do more,
Speaker 2: but with the constraints of time on the constraints, with
Speaker 2: the constraints of time on radio, we can't do more.
Speaker 2: But here we could have done more. We gone for
Speaker 2: the two hours. If you want, Stevie, I just don't
Speaker 2: want to. I just don't want to do that because
Speaker 2: I have something to eat. I got it.
Speaker 3: I do want to say something, yes, go uh. You
Speaker 3: say this all the time. I don't say it enough.
Speaker 3: The VS an audience man just scumbags, not the VS
Speaker 3: and audience best listeners in the game. You say it
Speaker 3: all the time. I got a bunch of tweeted dms
Speaker 3: the past couple of days.
Speaker 1: They are the best.
Speaker 2: Absolutely you are you said you were, you are humbled
Speaker 2: by them, which I think is a good word.
Speaker 1: Yes.
Speaker 2: Yeah, they are the best audience and I can only
Speaker 2: speak for a numbers game audience. Also the greatest listeners.
Speaker 2: It's just it's it's wonderful to get the kind of
Speaker 2: feedback on this and the megapod listeners. I mean this honestly,
Speaker 2: This podcast online gets tremendous response. So a lot of
Speaker 2: credit to everybody.
Speaker 3: Funny, loyal, smart, the best, the.
Speaker 2: Best, Stevie, thank you, Steve Fick, everybody. The the only
Speaker 2: back to back winner of the Hilton Super Contest. You
Speaker 2: can follow him. What are you physics? Sports? Is that
Speaker 2: your handle? Yes?
Speaker 5: At sports? And then thanks for having me on this.
Speaker 4: I I love you guys, I love your audience, love
Speaker 4: everything you do. Hopefully Gilly keeps winning so I can
Speaker 4: come back next year.
Speaker 2: Well have you didn't we have? He owned once or
Speaker 2: twice last year what.
Speaker 3: It was supposed to be twice? He blew us off
Speaker 3: conference title week.
Speaker 2: I think it was he blew us off conference that
Speaker 2: you blew us off?
Speaker 1: Steve?
Speaker 2: How dare you?
Speaker 5: I got sick?
Speaker 2: Anyway?
Speaker 3: No, he had some like big somebody invited him on
Speaker 3: something somewhere and he's like I got to go on that.
Speaker 3: It was like Colin call or he went he got
Speaker 3: some big uh.
Speaker 2: That's right, well that we're going to re record. We're
Speaker 2: going to rerecord Week one with somebody else. Now that
Speaker 2: I that I just was reminded of that. Thank you, Steve,
Speaker 2: Steve and everybody at Sports Will Hill should have bet
Speaker 2: more podcasts, and Todd wish Nev at Tam wish Nev
Speaker 2: always entertaining and hopefully Todd and I will do halftimes
Speaker 2: as well this season. We'll see how that goes during
Speaker 2: prime time games on Twitter space as thanks for listening,
Speaker 2: good luck with all your Week one bets, and then
Speaker 2: Ashes Football