WEBVTT - Beating The Book: 2024 Week 1 NFL MegaPod Betting Preview 0:00:03.520 --> 0:00:04.520 Check it in Man. 0:00:06.320 --> 0:00:10.640 September third, twenty twenty four, Tuesday morning, September third, twenty 0:00:10.640 --> 0:00:13.880 twenty four. It is the Beating the Book Podcast Gil Alexander. 0:00:14.160 --> 0:00:17.880 Megapod Week one. Typically we will do these on days 0:00:18.120 --> 0:00:20.800 by the way of the given week. As it's week one, 0:00:20.800 --> 0:00:24.439 we decided to go a little earlier. This is I 0:00:24.520 --> 0:00:26.520 always remember. I always forget to look this up. I 0:00:26.520 --> 0:00:29.600 think this is the fourteenth year of the megapod. Fourteen 0:00:30.680 --> 0:00:32.720 podcasts have been around that long, and I don't know 0:00:32.760 --> 0:00:34.400 if you know that at the time when we did 0:00:34.440 --> 0:00:37.600 the first megapod, I think the only sports betting podcast 0:00:37.640 --> 0:00:40.800 that we're around with this one and ESPN's with Chad Millman. 0:00:41.200 --> 0:00:45.639 So happy to be around still doing this for the 0:00:45.840 --> 0:00:49.239 second straight year. Will Hill joined us as one of 0:00:49.280 --> 0:00:52.000 our pillars of the show. He is the host of 0:00:52.040 --> 0:00:56.279 the Should Have Bet More podcast and he's also part 0:00:56.320 --> 0:00:59.200 of the Chris Filika Empire over there at Fox Sports, 0:00:59.200 --> 0:01:02.240 part of the Bear Bets podcast. William or Wilson, I 0:01:02.240 --> 0:01:04.080 should say, Will Hill, everybody, how you. 0:01:04.000 --> 0:01:06.360 Doing, man boys, What's going on? 0:01:06.440 --> 0:01:06.880 It's weird. 0:01:06.920 --> 0:01:09.000 It feels like it took a while to get here. 0:01:09.040 --> 0:01:10.560 It kind of feels like it flew by. It's just 0:01:10.920 --> 0:01:14.039 I don't know. Time is funny in that aspect, but 0:01:14.480 --> 0:01:16.360 should be a lot of fun Fezi's back here for 0:01:16.400 --> 0:01:17.800 Week one. I know he was Week one last year 0:01:17.800 --> 0:01:20.319 and Gil had a good year, so Gilly superstitious, got 0:01:20.319 --> 0:01:22.240 to try to repeat last year. 0:01:23.040 --> 0:01:25.480 That's exactly why we had on week You're on to 0:01:25.560 --> 0:01:29.000 me before we get before we introduce our Rotina guest, 0:01:29.080 --> 0:01:31.920 Todd Wishnev joins us for what is Todd your fourth 0:01:32.040 --> 0:01:34.240 or fifty year doing this? Do you remember? 0:01:34.440 --> 0:01:37.040 I don't know, Gilly, I don't know. Am I supposed 0:01:37.080 --> 0:01:39.840 to research all the games? And know how many years 0:01:39.880 --> 0:01:42.399 I've been on here? I mean, it's a lot to ask, 0:01:42.480 --> 0:01:44.560 don't you think? I mean I'm dying over here? I'm 0:01:44.600 --> 0:01:47.920 five thousand pounds. I had a terrible betting summer. But 0:01:48.040 --> 0:01:50.160 before we get into any of that, I want to 0:01:50.240 --> 0:01:54.160 just give the congratulations that is due to two of 0:01:54.160 --> 0:01:57.240 my friends on here. My friend Fezick. If you look 0:01:57.280 --> 0:02:01.000 at his face, it's extremely thin. The guy after our 0:02:01.040 --> 0:02:03.760 weight bet has been keeping the weight off. And even 0:02:03.760 --> 0:02:06.440 though I'm the first one to love to stick it 0:02:06.480 --> 0:02:09.600 to mister arrogance, Stevie Fzick. He does look great and 0:02:09.680 --> 0:02:14.560 deserves kudos. Now, my second congratulations will go out to 0:02:14.560 --> 0:02:19.400 my good friend Gilbert Alexander, who had a thirty five, 0:02:19.680 --> 0:02:23.600 eighteen and one season last year. What does that mean, folks, 0:02:23.880 --> 0:02:28.560 That means fade Gilly this year. There's no way in 0:02:28.840 --> 0:02:32.480 any chance that this guy can do it again. Will 0:02:32.520 --> 0:02:35.359 he just fall back to fifty to fifty like it 0:02:35.560 --> 0:02:39.680 is in most NFL or will he completely shit the bet? 0:02:40.120 --> 0:02:43.360 That will be the question. But anyways, he does deserve 0:02:43.400 --> 0:02:46.400 tremendous kudos. And by the way, our teasers last year 0:02:46.680 --> 0:02:50.040 everyone went thirteen and five, including me, Will and the guest, 0:02:50.080 --> 0:02:52.560 and Gilly went eleven and seven, So our teasers were 0:02:52.600 --> 0:02:59.080 outstanding last year as well. Okay, enough said about the congratulations. 0:02:58.360 --> 0:03:01.440 Thank you, Todd. Todd wish to have everybody who who 0:03:01.520 --> 0:03:03.080 I think. I don't know if I can say this 0:03:03.080 --> 0:03:05.480 out loud. Todd, We're going to try to do halftimes 0:03:05.480 --> 0:03:07.960 this year to me and you on Twitter, Twitter Spaces, 0:03:08.080 --> 0:03:10.400 Twitter Space says We're gonna try to do that. 0:03:10.600 --> 0:03:13.760 I mean hopefully, It'll just depend on if I can 0:03:13.800 --> 0:03:16.880 get to a to a quiet enough area. 0:03:18.000 --> 0:03:21.120 Yeah, for primetime games. We'll see how that works out. 0:03:21.320 --> 0:03:24.520 They already will Will and Todd already introduced our first 0:03:24.560 --> 0:03:27.200 guest of the year. He's the only back to back 0:03:27.480 --> 0:03:32.240 Hilton Super Contest champion. He holds that distinction. He is 0:03:32.280 --> 0:03:35.000 a very kind gentleman in real life. He is a 0:03:35.200 --> 0:03:39.520 raging asshole on Twitter. It's Steve Zig everybody. Stevie. 0:03:40.200 --> 0:03:43.000 Now you swear and beg and kick us that you're 0:03:43.040 --> 0:03:46.000 not a gambling man. Then you find you're back in 0:03:46.120 --> 0:03:50.040 Vegas with a handle in your hand. You go back Jack, 0:03:50.720 --> 0:03:51.560 do it again. 0:03:52.320 --> 0:03:54.280 Let's go Gilly Erry. 0:03:54.360 --> 0:03:57.680 That was a very contemporary reference Stevie, for Steely Dan 0:03:57.760 --> 0:04:02.920 fans out there, not for anybody under the five. Well done, Steve. 0:04:02.920 --> 0:04:04.160 What do you have to Can we just start with this? 0:04:04.320 --> 0:04:05.680 Let'll say what do you have to say for yourself? 0:04:05.840 --> 0:04:08.560 But I but I guess we should start there. Why 0:04:08.880 --> 0:04:10.480 before we get into because by the way, the format 0:04:10.560 --> 0:04:12.280 of this show, and Todd will correct me if I'm wrong. 0:04:12.640 --> 0:04:17.800 Three best bets per week, Teaser of the week, Survivor 0:04:17.880 --> 0:04:22.000 play if people are still alive and Survivor, I guess 0:04:22.040 --> 0:04:24.400 we do a Thursday Night thought. If anybody has anything 0:04:24.560 --> 0:04:26.400 to say about the Thursday Night game. If it's part 0:04:26.400 --> 0:04:28.480 of their best bets or not, and then the final 0:04:28.520 --> 0:04:32.160 two questions which have been tried and true. On this podcast, we. 0:04:32.160 --> 0:04:35.159 Also usually do a little in game segment and sometimes 0:04:35.200 --> 0:04:38.400 also a real tremendous dumb bell of the week if 0:04:38.440 --> 0:04:40.800 there's something that's, you know, out of the ordinary, I've 0:04:40.800 --> 0:04:42.560 got I've already got a dumb bell of the week 0:04:42.640 --> 0:04:44.240 and an in game for you. 0:04:45.320 --> 0:04:47.920 Oh that's right, he does have a dumbbell. Todd's going 0:04:47.960 --> 0:04:52.560 to hijack the podcast momentarily. But Steve, real quick, why 0:04:52.640 --> 0:04:54.840 for the people out there, why do you feel the 0:04:54.880 --> 0:04:58.400 need to be this person on Twitter to point out 0:04:58.560 --> 0:05:02.720 other people's errors and to point out how you would 0:05:02.800 --> 0:05:04.039 never have made such errors? 0:05:04.640 --> 0:05:06.679 Can I take that question? Can I take that question 0:05:06.720 --> 0:05:07.600 for Stevie? 0:05:07.800 --> 0:05:09.120 I wouldn't answer that question. 0:05:09.600 --> 0:05:13.560 Yes, it goes back to high school and dungeons and dragons. 0:05:13.560 --> 0:05:14.159 But Stevie, go. 0:05:14.160 --> 0:05:18.560 Ahead, interruptions over six and a half, You're well on 0:05:18.600 --> 0:05:18.920 your way. 0:05:18.960 --> 0:05:20.200 You've already got one here. 0:05:21.720 --> 0:05:25.560 I'm the quote Jeff Spacoli in Fast Times fridgement high 0:05:26.400 --> 0:05:30.520 I don't know. 0:05:28.360 --> 0:05:32.360 Don't I don't know? Good an answer as any Let's okay, 0:05:32.400 --> 0:05:34.039 let's start with this because I know you've been talking 0:05:34.040 --> 0:05:36.480 about this all off season before we get to Todd's 0:05:36.520 --> 0:05:40.440 Dumbo of the week at his innygame, the new kickoff rule. 0:05:40.520 --> 0:05:44.080 You are very resolute in your opinion on this. What 0:05:44.120 --> 0:05:45.440 do your findings tell you? 0:05:46.839 --> 0:05:50.440 Well, I have no findings, but the good coaches are 0:05:50.520 --> 0:05:54.080 going to corkscrew ugly kick it to approximately the goal line. 0:05:54.120 --> 0:05:55.919 So it's like when Gilly and I play tennis. We 0:05:56.040 --> 0:06:00.760 both struggle mightily when there's that ball that it looks 0:06:00.760 --> 0:06:02.719 like it might go in, it might be going out. 0:06:02.839 --> 0:06:04.720 Should I hit it? Should I not hit it? 0:06:04.960 --> 0:06:07.600 I choke, I'll swing at it, and I'll hit it 0:06:07.640 --> 0:06:09.719 in the air, up in the air and hit my 0:06:09.760 --> 0:06:13.400 head with it. This happened in real life just this week. 0:06:13.760 --> 0:06:15.679 So you want to make the kick return or think, 0:06:15.839 --> 0:06:19.120 because that's another task he has to do. Now, if 0:06:19.120 --> 0:06:20.760 you're a conservative coach and you just want to kick 0:06:20.760 --> 0:06:22.000 it out of the end zone, you want to deal 0:06:22.000 --> 0:06:22.320 with it. 0:06:22.600 --> 0:06:24.919 Why not just kick it two yards. 0:06:24.600 --> 0:06:26.560 Into the end zone and let the opponent make a 0:06:26.600 --> 0:06:28.599 mistake and run it out because he won't get back 0:06:28.880 --> 0:06:31.320 more than like to the twenty five. So either kick 0:06:31.320 --> 0:06:32.520 it to the goal line or kick it to the 0:06:32.560 --> 0:06:34.640 two yard line, don't kick it out of the end zone. 0:06:35.600 --> 0:06:38.159 That's the optimal way to go, and that's the way 0:06:38.200 --> 0:06:40.159 every good team it will approach it. 0:06:40.200 --> 0:06:44.840 By week four, Okay, you said it's what twenty the 0:06:45.240 --> 0:06:47.480 average line will be the twenty eight point something? 0:06:48.160 --> 0:06:49.719 Yeah, twenty eight point twenty five? 0:06:51.000 --> 0:06:56.040 Okay, Does that translate? Is one thing to have that conclusion? 0:06:56.760 --> 0:07:00.600 Does that actually translate to more points? Because from perspective, 0:07:00.600 --> 0:07:02.280 that's really we don't care if it's the twenty eight 0:07:02.360 --> 0:07:05.160 yard line. We just what was the old average points? 0:07:05.520 --> 0:07:07.880 So the old average was what, Steve, do you remember 0:07:07.920 --> 0:07:08.600 twenty twenty five? 0:07:09.640 --> 0:07:10.480 Yeah, twenty. 0:07:11.720 --> 0:07:14.200 Because because basically where I'm going with that is they 0:07:14.200 --> 0:07:16.560 say it for the average goes from the twenty five. 0:07:16.880 --> 0:07:19.600 If they move the touch back from the twenty five 0:07:19.640 --> 0:07:22.480 to the thirty, it's actually not that big of a 0:07:22.560 --> 0:07:26.800 deal in terms of the output of points. It's when 0:07:26.800 --> 0:07:28.760 they get to the third, when they make the touch 0:07:28.800 --> 0:07:31.560 back the thirty five yard line, that's going to be 0:07:31.560 --> 0:07:34.120 the biggest spike in points. 0:07:34.200 --> 0:07:39.160 You agree with that, yes, So I think sixteen yards 0:07:39.640 --> 0:07:43.400 is probably worth a point on a drive expectation, so 0:07:43.560 --> 0:07:46.000 four yards would be worth a fourth of a point. Now, 0:07:46.000 --> 0:07:48.480 we got to be careful, all right, Although it's worth 0:07:48.640 --> 0:07:51.320 a quarter of a point in positive expectation for me, 0:07:51.400 --> 0:07:55.280 if I'm playing Todd, I can't just cumulate add ten 0:07:55.360 --> 0:07:57.520 kickoffs and say it's worth two and a half points 0:07:57.800 --> 0:08:00.880 because of my drive stalls, I punts and now that 0:08:01.000 --> 0:08:03.000 just hurt the total. That didn't help it that I 0:08:03.040 --> 0:08:06.800 started with better field position. So to say it's worth 0:08:07.400 --> 0:08:10.160 two and a half is an egregious mistake. You probably 0:08:10.160 --> 0:08:12.040 have to divide by more than two. I think it's 0:08:12.040 --> 0:08:14.320 going to increase scoring by a little over one point 0:08:14.400 --> 0:08:14.840 per game. 0:08:16.120 --> 0:08:16.360 Okay. 0:08:16.440 --> 0:08:19.680 Plus, not all yards are created equally. It's easier to 0:08:19.680 --> 0:08:21.360 get yards when you're on your side of the field 0:08:21.400 --> 0:08:22.800 than it is on the other side of the field. 0:08:22.800 --> 0:08:24.720 So that's another big deal, isn't it. 0:08:25.520 --> 0:08:28.000 Well, that's why I said sixteen yards would equate to 0:08:28.040 --> 0:08:30.640 a point. That sixteen yards is when you're on your 0:08:30.680 --> 0:08:32.680 own side of the field and you're not anywhere close 0:08:32.679 --> 0:08:33.599 to scoring. 0:08:34.760 --> 0:08:36.439 Then what and you, Steve, I asked you this on 0:08:36.480 --> 0:08:38.880 a numbers game on the radio side, So for when 0:08:38.920 --> 0:08:42.560 people come back with I think Joe Peda asked this question. Wait, 0:08:42.640 --> 0:08:46.320 why was points down then? Last year, your response. 0:08:46.040 --> 0:08:50.080 Was, well, there can be multiple different factors. I'm only 0:08:50.160 --> 0:08:52.959 saying scoring is going to increase by one point due 0:08:52.960 --> 0:08:53.719 to the kickoffs. 0:08:53.920 --> 0:08:56.520 Scoring could go down for other factors. 0:08:56.800 --> 0:08:59.920 And famously last year the Cover twos and NFL t 0:09:00.000 --> 0:09:02.520 Tame's got really good at not giving up the big play, 0:09:02.920 --> 0:09:07.320 because hey, if you can drive the length of the field, congratulations, 0:09:07.400 --> 0:09:10.600 one holding call and you're donezo, and you still got 0:09:10.600 --> 0:09:11.640 to score in the red zone. 0:09:11.679 --> 0:09:13.600 So avoid the big play at all costs. 0:09:14.600 --> 0:09:16.800 I also think it's the right with the propensity to 0:09:16.840 --> 0:09:19.280 go for fourth downs now unlike it it used to be. 0:09:19.320 --> 0:09:21.720 And if you if you fail to convert deep in 0:09:21.760 --> 0:09:25.400 another team's territory, right that you know, So just going 0:09:25.440 --> 0:09:27.559 for it more and fourth down does not necessarily translate 0:09:27.600 --> 0:09:32.920 to more points. It could actually create longer fields during 0:09:33.000 --> 0:09:36.800 games for missing fourth downs and in plus territory. 0:09:37.480 --> 0:09:39.680 Yeah, if you have fourth and one from your opponents 0:09:39.720 --> 0:09:42.440 twenty eight and you bet the over, you're like, please God, 0:09:42.600 --> 0:09:45.360 kick the field goal, because if you go for it now, 0:09:45.360 --> 0:09:47.760 you're gonna run another three minutes off on the drive 0:09:48.160 --> 0:09:50.160 and you'd rather just get the bank the three points 0:09:50.160 --> 0:09:52.640 and let's go and start a new drive. 0:09:52.600 --> 0:09:56.920 Exactly, Toddy, your thoughts in game and Dumbo. 0:09:58.120 --> 0:10:00.560 Well, my in game thoughts obviously would don't have National 0:10:00.600 --> 0:10:04.240 Football League to look at. Let me just do the 0:10:04.280 --> 0:10:08.679 Dumbo first, because it's I just this astounds me to know. 0:10:09.000 --> 0:10:12.480 And Brian Kelly, who's generally considered a good coach, he's 0:10:12.520 --> 0:10:17.640 in LSU now doing ozembic and the guy uh with 0:10:17.720 --> 0:10:19.520 two O six And by the way, NFL teams have 0:10:19.559 --> 0:10:21.960 gotten much better at this, much much better at this. 0:10:22.360 --> 0:10:25.520 But the guy at two o six left driving the 0:10:25.600 --> 0:10:30.240 other day in that LSU USC game, you're you want 0:10:30.280 --> 0:10:33.080 to make sure USC has as little time as possible 0:10:33.120 --> 0:10:35.040 to try to score the other way. Now, five years 0:10:35.040 --> 0:10:36.640 ago in the NFL, you used to make this mistake 0:10:36.679 --> 0:10:38.319 all the time. Now they don't. If you notice, in 0:10:38.360 --> 0:10:41.200 the NFL, they won't even be run you hurrying with 0:10:41.240 --> 0:10:43.720 like a minute left because they realize that we don't 0:10:43.720 --> 0:10:45.800 want to give the other team a possession, give them 0:10:45.800 --> 0:10:48.360 a quick three the other way. Of course, I guess 0:10:48.360 --> 0:10:50.640 Brian Kelly never watched an NFL game because with two 0:10:50.640 --> 0:10:54.280 o seven left on first and ten, he runs a 0:10:54.280 --> 0:10:56.600 play instead of going to the two minute warning and 0:10:56.640 --> 0:10:59.560 at least eating into the time below the two minutes. 0:10:59.559 --> 0:11:01.760 Now that the two minute warning college, which by the way, 0:11:01.880 --> 0:11:04.440 is a ridiculous rule. So what I don't understand is 0:11:04.440 --> 0:11:06.960 how you can be paid eight gazillion dollars to be 0:11:07.000 --> 0:11:10.319 the coach of LSU and know there is no advantage 0:11:10.360 --> 0:11:13.760 whatsoever to running a play at two oh six and 0:11:13.920 --> 0:11:16.400 instead letting the clock go down to two. It is 0:11:16.520 --> 0:11:19.719 just unbelievable to me that these guys can continuously make 0:11:19.800 --> 0:11:21.599 And Brian Kelly is a good coach. You wouldn't be 0:11:21.600 --> 0:11:23.640 at LSU if he wasn't a good coach. So that 0:11:23.800 --> 0:11:27.240 just astounds me to no end. That's why the dumb. 0:11:27.760 --> 0:11:29.559 Because, by the way, people should know, we're all on 0:11:29.600 --> 0:11:33.280 a on a text thread together and Todd would not well, well, 0:11:33.360 --> 0:11:35.360 there's another thing that Todd wouldn't stop about. But on 0:11:35.400 --> 0:11:37.439 this particular point, will you actually made it? I think 0:11:37.480 --> 0:11:40.120 a good point, which is Brian Kelly might have been 0:11:40.200 --> 0:11:42.680 trumped immediately by Lincoln Riley. Right. 0:11:44.840 --> 0:11:47.040 Yeah, I'm trying to remember because I was flipping back 0:11:47.080 --> 0:11:49.080 and forth, I think between the baseball so I'm trying 0:11:49.120 --> 0:11:50.200 I remember the sequence. 0:11:50.800 --> 0:11:55.960 You remember in particular, one forty three left, one forty 0:11:55.960 --> 0:11:58.719 three left the clock running. It's now going to be 0:11:58.800 --> 0:12:01.440 fourth down Lincoln, right. They could go ahead and call 0:12:01.440 --> 0:12:03.480 the time out there or let it run to one fifteen. 0:12:03.600 --> 0:12:04.400 What did he do? Well? 0:12:06.120 --> 0:12:08.160 Do he let it? He let it run a one 0:12:08.160 --> 0:12:09.400 to fifteen for no reason? 0:12:09.880 --> 0:12:10.679 Okay, it is. 0:12:11.000 --> 0:12:14.360 It is amazing. It is such a reminder of oh, yes, 0:12:14.679 --> 0:12:19.199 college football's back. These coaches are there. It's just incredible 0:12:19.720 --> 0:12:21.680 how inane they can be on these things. 0:12:21.840 --> 0:12:24.600 The coaches and the broadcasters. Man, the broadcasters are definitely 0:12:24.600 --> 0:12:26.520 down a level, and some of the NFL guys are 0:12:26.640 --> 0:12:29.559 very prehistoric with their views on analytics. 0:12:29.559 --> 0:12:30.400 But the college. 0:12:30.120 --> 0:12:32.720 Guys, it's a whole other level, especially these lower level games. 0:12:32.760 --> 0:12:34.959 You know that the third or fourth game on ESPN 0:12:35.000 --> 0:12:36.679 two at like you ten o'clock at night, you hear 0:12:36.760 --> 0:12:39.720 some very strange commentary the best moment. 0:12:41.320 --> 0:12:45.000 I mean, the coaches, it all, it's all the same. 0:12:45.120 --> 0:12:48.200 They it's like Todd, what do you do with a 0:12:48.360 --> 0:12:50.840 seven against a three? Well, I don't know, I'll guests, 0:12:50.880 --> 0:12:52.800 you know, it's it's just what you probably know. 0:12:54.280 --> 0:12:57.000 But the you have to know what to do. And 0:12:57.040 --> 0:12:58.160 if you don't know what to do, butN you got 0:12:58.200 --> 0:12:59.280 one hundred other things to do. 0:12:59.559 --> 0:13:02.840 Why not just pay well hill, Hey, hey, you got 0:13:02.880 --> 0:13:04.800 to call time out here, or you know, hey, you're 0:13:05.000 --> 0:13:06.480 you're up twelve, you got to go for two? 0:13:06.920 --> 0:13:08.760 You know, why leave it up to the coach. The 0:13:08.800 --> 0:13:10.920 coaches a hundred other things to do. It's stupid. Just 0:13:11.040 --> 0:13:12.400 have someone tell you what to do. 0:13:13.920 --> 0:13:16.560 Which Crystabal I think did higher. They said he got 0:13:16.559 --> 0:13:17.800 a time management coach. 0:13:17.840 --> 0:13:21.440 Finally, yes, and that guy is by to Mario. I'll 0:13:21.480 --> 0:13:24.600 talk Chrystabal Chriysta ball got a time management coach to 0:13:24.640 --> 0:13:27.760 explain to him that when the other team has no timeouts, 0:13:28.000 --> 0:13:30.600 there is no reason to run a play because you 0:13:30.679 --> 0:13:32.760 probably need a coach to tell you that. I mean, 0:13:33.040 --> 0:13:35.760 you probably haven't been in football your whole life. By 0:13:35.760 --> 0:13:38.000 the way, speaking of which, Bill O'Brien last night did 0:13:38.000 --> 0:13:41.840 something very nice for my under It was it was 0:13:41.960 --> 0:13:43.960 very interesting because they were at the four yard line 0:13:43.960 --> 0:13:46.560 with two minutes left, score twenty eight to thirteen, no 0:13:46.720 --> 0:13:49.160 timeouts left for Florida State, and I was thinking, now, 0:13:49.240 --> 0:13:52.160 is Bill O'Brien, an NFO former NFL coach, going to 0:13:52.240 --> 0:13:54.520 do the NFL thing which is two minutes left and 0:13:54.559 --> 0:13:56.360 the other team has no timeouts? You just take three 0:13:56.480 --> 0:13:58.680 days and the game is over, even at the team's 0:13:58.679 --> 0:14:02.040 four yard line. A lot of these obnoxious coaches, like 0:14:02.200 --> 0:14:04.440 a guy I will bring up right now on in 0:14:04.640 --> 0:14:07.760 game on my little in game segment, don't do that. 0:14:07.880 --> 0:14:10.199 But Bill O'Brien was classy and he took a knee. 0:14:10.200 --> 0:14:12.439 But I just went on my in game segment. One 0:14:12.480 --> 0:14:15.000 quick thing. If you're involved in a Lane Kiffin game 0:14:15.040 --> 0:14:17.559 folks this year, don't think there's going to be any 0:14:17.640 --> 0:14:20.720 running out the clock stuff. They were up fifty two 0:14:20.840 --> 0:14:23.920 to nothing the other day at the half and I 0:14:23.960 --> 0:14:27.240 saw plus seventy nine and a half for Furman. Now, 0:14:27.360 --> 0:14:30.000 I thought to myself, there's no way they're going to 0:14:30.040 --> 0:14:33.720 beat a team eighty to nothing in a college football game. 0:14:33.720 --> 0:14:35.720 They'll be talking about it all week. Well, guess what, 0:14:36.120 --> 0:14:39.600 our boy, Lane Kiffin has it at seventy three to nothing. 0:14:39.680 --> 0:14:42.200 At the end of three, I'm thinking, okay, well, time 0:14:42.240 --> 0:14:45.760 to be classy, Lane, Time to run the ball. Lane. 0:14:45.840 --> 0:14:48.000 He puts in his third string. He's throwing the ball 0:14:48.000 --> 0:14:50.600 all over the field. It's now seventy six nothing. Now 0:14:50.600 --> 0:14:53.360 you're in real danger. Now he puts in his fourth string, 0:14:53.720 --> 0:14:56.240 a white kid who looks like he came from Texas 0:14:56.360 --> 0:15:00.480 Roadhouse grilled busboy area to come in four with string 0:15:00.560 --> 0:15:03.440 and guess what, They're gonna let that guy throw the ball. 0:15:03.680 --> 0:15:07.040 So now it's third and seven at the seventeen yard 0:15:07.120 --> 0:15:10.160 line with like a minute and forty eight to go, 0:15:10.280 --> 0:15:13.120 and he's throwing the ball to try to get it 0:15:13.160 --> 0:15:16.880 in eighty three nothing. Now, congratulations, he didn't do it, 0:15:17.320 --> 0:15:20.160 and we all survived the plus seventy nine and a half. 0:15:20.200 --> 0:15:23.160 But I just be careful, folks. If you're in a 0:15:23.240 --> 0:15:26.680 Lane Kiffin game and it's late, don't bet the under. 0:15:26.880 --> 0:15:28.240 He's gonna try to run it up. 0:15:28.840 --> 0:15:33.000 And I would parlay that over to the Texas Roadhouse. 0:15:33.040 --> 0:15:36.200 If you're still going to Outback Steakhouse, you're you're a 0:15:36.280 --> 0:15:39.200 square of epic proportions. The food is better at Texas 0:15:39.280 --> 0:15:41.520 Roadhouse and it's less expensive. 0:15:42.360 --> 0:15:44.360 By the way, don't go to Texas Roadhouse. By the way, 0:15:44.400 --> 0:15:47.640 I'll tell you why that the roles at Texas Roadhouse 0:15:47.920 --> 0:15:51.240 have crack cocaine in them. I promise you there is 0:15:51.520 --> 0:15:54.520 no doubt in my mind that there is literal crack 0:15:54.600 --> 0:15:58.800 cocaine in the Texas Roadhouse grill roles. Because you cannot 0:15:58.840 --> 0:16:02.120 stop eating them. Oh human can stop beating a Texas roadhouse, 0:16:02.120 --> 0:16:03.880 grill role. I'm just telling you that right now. 0:16:04.640 --> 0:16:07.840 Where's the closest Texas roadhouse to us, Steve out here. 0:16:07.920 --> 0:16:10.560 It's right on Saint Rose, between the m Hotel and 0:16:10.600 --> 0:16:11.920 the Green Valley Ranch Hotel. 0:16:12.720 --> 0:16:16.160 Oh boy, oh boy, I want to stay, Sin, don't 0:16:16.200 --> 0:16:18.240 go there. If you want to stay Sin, don't go there, Stevie. 0:16:18.320 --> 0:16:19.520 I'm telling you it's a mistake. 0:16:19.640 --> 0:16:23.360 No, that's not fair, because the Greg Peterson goes there nightly. 0:16:23.760 --> 0:16:24.720 I think he's a part only. 0:16:24.840 --> 0:16:29.080 Yeah, he loves Texas Roadhouse. He loves it. 0:16:30.040 --> 0:16:30.880 All right, let's do it. 0:16:30.960 --> 0:16:33.200 Week one National Football League, where we just had some 0:16:33.240 --> 0:16:36.720 big news this morning, namely that the San Francisco forty 0:16:36.800 --> 0:16:40.560 nine ers and Trent Williams, their first ballot Hall of 0:16:40.640 --> 0:16:44.760 Fame left tackle, have agreed to terms. Not official yet, 0:16:44.760 --> 0:16:46.920 but looks like it will happen here within twenty four hours. 0:16:47.280 --> 0:16:49.840 And that is large, especially for those of us whose 0:16:49.880 --> 0:16:53.160 instinct it was to play the Jets on Monday night football. 0:16:53.840 --> 0:16:56.840 I know we don't think of offensive linemen as mattering 0:16:56.880 --> 0:16:59.080 to the spread, but god damn if somebody does, it's 0:16:59.080 --> 0:17:02.320 this guy. That's huge for the Niners, who obviously are 0:17:02.360 --> 0:17:05.320 on the heels of resigning Brandon Ayuk, so they are 0:17:05.359 --> 0:17:08.440 in effect running it back on offense, and Trent Williams 0:17:08.480 --> 0:17:12.520 is a massive cog to that wheel. We start with 0:17:12.560 --> 0:17:15.280 our guests with his first best bet. That is you, 0:17:15.520 --> 0:17:17.400 Steve Fezick, what do you got? 0:17:17.480 --> 0:17:19.440 Oh, we're not doing Thursday Night thoughts? 0:17:19.960 --> 0:17:22.000 Oh, Thursday Night thoughts. I guess we have to start 0:17:22.000 --> 0:17:22.639 with that. It. 0:17:22.720 --> 0:17:24.919 I mean, you've been doing the show fourteen years and 0:17:24.960 --> 0:17:26.840 you still don't know the format. 0:17:29.840 --> 0:17:32.000 This may be part of the best bet for somebody, 0:17:32.080 --> 0:17:34.879 or it may not be. Does anybody have with any thoughts 0:17:34.880 --> 0:17:38.439 on that game? Kansas City? What is your consensus line 0:17:38.520 --> 0:17:41.760 right now? Todd, let's have our first consensus discussion. I 0:17:41.800 --> 0:17:46.120 am showing two and a half extra juice, three reduced juice, 0:17:46.200 --> 0:17:48.200 so it's two and a half still counts. 0:17:48.400 --> 0:17:51.480 I guess, I mean, I guess if there's an if 0:17:51.480 --> 0:17:53.760 we feel like it's half the books both ways, you 0:17:53.800 --> 0:17:55.680 can go either way. But see then the problem is 0:17:55.720 --> 0:17:57.480 a guy like Steve will come up and try to 0:17:57.520 --> 0:18:00.440 game the system and not really give any insight. He'll 0:18:00.480 --> 0:18:02.439 just game the system to try to get his record 0:18:02.480 --> 0:18:04.680 looking good. Even though he's just a guest for one week. 0:18:04.920 --> 0:18:08.240 He can't actually think, oh, maybe there's ant there's people 0:18:08.280 --> 0:18:11.000 listening who want some insight about football. But anyways, go on. 0:18:13.880 --> 0:18:16.600 I believe Gils has said this is two point seventy five, 0:18:16.680 --> 0:18:18.119 so we can go lay to and a half or 0:18:18.119 --> 0:18:18.720 take three. 0:18:19.040 --> 0:18:20.000 Am I correctness? 0:18:20.160 --> 0:18:22.080 That's fine? 0:18:22.600 --> 0:18:25.000 This is starting with that. No, we have to have 0:18:25.040 --> 0:18:27.960 a consensus line. We can't. We can't both lay two 0:18:28.000 --> 0:18:29.160 and a half and take three. 0:18:29.320 --> 0:18:32.600 Yeah, and there has to be some kind Yeah, what's 0:18:32.600 --> 0:18:35.280 the lie? I think three. I think the three is 0:18:35.280 --> 0:18:38.199 more prevalent. What do you guys think three is more prevalent? 0:18:38.200 --> 0:18:42.200 If it's three is three three, it is mins three three. 0:18:42.440 --> 0:18:44.640 Yeah, I think money will come on Kansas City. I'm 0:18:44.680 --> 0:18:45.480 passing the game. 0:18:45.560 --> 0:18:47.040 I think if you're going to play it, I would 0:18:47.040 --> 0:18:49.560 go against the Hall of Fame bookmakers over at the 0:18:49.600 --> 0:18:51.399 South Point there they have as two and a half 0:18:51.480 --> 0:18:53.760 lay a dollar ten, so they would be that would 0:18:53.840 --> 0:18:56.200 be where I would play k C. I think Andy 0:18:56.240 --> 0:18:58.720 Reid off of a bye. Obviously this is a pretty 0:18:58.720 --> 0:19:02.560