WEBVTT - Canada, Mexico Face US Tariff Deadline 0:00:02.520 --> 0:00:10.119 Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the 0:00:10.119 --> 0:00:13.880 Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at 0:00:13.920 --> 0:00:17.119 noon and five pm Eastern on Apple, Cocklay and Android 0:00:17.160 --> 0:00:20.520 Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever 0:00:20.600 --> 0:00:23.760 you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 0:00:25.120 --> 0:00:28.680 From a true social post that President Trump has specifically 0:00:28.680 --> 0:00:31.680 addressed to quote the great farmers of the United States, 0:00:31.680 --> 0:00:34.080 it reads as follows, get ready to start making a 0:00:34.120 --> 0:00:37.040 lot of agricultural product to be sold inside of the 0:00:37.120 --> 0:00:41.080 United States. Tariffs will go on external product on April second, 0:00:41.360 --> 0:00:44.960 ending this true social post. Have fun. And when we 0:00:45.000 --> 0:00:48.120 consider what the impact of this could be, Joe, US 0:00:48.159 --> 0:00:53.440 agricultural imports buy and large from other countries include horticultural products, fruits, vegetables, 0:00:53.840 --> 0:00:56.160 that sort of thing. We do actually import. 0:00:55.920 --> 0:00:56.320 A lot of that. 0:00:56.360 --> 0:00:59.080 In fact, the annual growth rate was nearly six percent 0:00:59.120 --> 0:01:02.320 from fiscal years to twenty thirteen to twenty twenty three. 0:01:02.440 --> 0:01:04.240 And the fact that this is April second that he's 0:01:04.280 --> 0:01:08.520 talking about means we tack this on, presumably to reciprocal 0:01:08.560 --> 0:01:11.800 tariffs that he suggested, we'll go into effect that date. Autostos, 0:01:11.959 --> 0:01:13.920 what else am I missing, there's a laundry. 0:01:13.520 --> 0:01:15.400 List, steal an aluminum? Is that the second? 0:01:15.720 --> 0:01:17.680 I might have to check my home game for that one, 0:01:17.720 --> 0:01:21.160 because the timeline is getting a little confused here. External products, 0:01:21.200 --> 0:01:24.960 he refers to, Yeah, James Copper, that's another one that 0:01:25.000 --> 0:01:27.399 we're looking at as well. The question is will any 0:01:27.440 --> 0:01:30.560 of these be implemented? And, by the way, how long 0:01:30.600 --> 0:01:32.880 it might take our great farmers, as he refers to them, 0:01:32.959 --> 0:01:36.760 to ramp up production to replace what could be a 0:01:36.760 --> 0:01:40.600 lot of missing imports and prevent prices from rising. This 0:01:40.680 --> 0:01:43.720 is part of our conversation with Liz Pancotti, who's joining 0:01:43.760 --> 0:01:45.600 us right now to talk it out. Managing director of 0:01:45.640 --> 0:01:50.320 Public Policy and Advocacy at the Groundwork Collaborative. Liz was 0:01:50.320 --> 0:01:53.240 an economic advisor to Senator Bernie Sanders, and it's great 0:01:53.240 --> 0:01:55.400 to have you with us here, Liz, I'm not even 0:01:55.440 --> 0:01:58.600 sure where to begin, but big picture, you see the 0:01:58.640 --> 0:02:01.360 confusion in the markets here. What do you do with 0:02:01.400 --> 0:02:03.440 the lack of information when it comes to tariffs? And 0:02:03.440 --> 0:02:04.920 do you think any of them will in fact be 0:02:05.000 --> 0:02:06.680 put into effect tomorrow? 0:02:07.720 --> 0:02:11.480 You know, I think everyone's quite confused. This morning's ism 0:02:11.560 --> 0:02:17.040 manufacturing report hammered business uncertainty about tariffs, which is affecting 0:02:17.120 --> 0:02:20.760 both consumer spending and capital spending. Folks are just not 0:02:20.880 --> 0:02:23.639 willing to make decisions about what to spend and if 0:02:23.680 --> 0:02:25.959 to spend, and as a result, you're seeing quite a 0:02:26.000 --> 0:02:30.079 bit of economic softening. Consumer sentiment is down, consumer inflation 0:02:30.240 --> 0:02:34.320 expectations are up, small business optimism is down, and uncertainty 0:02:34.360 --> 0:02:36.840 is up. Consumer spending is down, and we just heard 0:02:36.880 --> 0:02:39.640 the market's report. It's not looking good. 0:02:40.560 --> 0:02:43.000 Well, and there is a certain degree of overlap here. 0:02:43.200 --> 0:02:46.000 I want to ask about, Liz, because the two largest 0:02:46.040 --> 0:02:50.280 suppliers of US agricultural imports Canada and the European Union, 0:02:50.320 --> 0:02:53.040 followed by Mexico, and we're already talking about tariffs going 0:02:53.040 --> 0:02:56.960 into place potentially on Canadian and New Mexican goods tomorrow 0:02:57.000 --> 0:03:00.480 of twenty five percent. What happens to all of these 0:03:00.480 --> 0:03:02.920 are compounded, then they all layer on top of each other, 0:03:03.000 --> 0:03:04.920 and the rates ultimately end up much higher than what 0:03:04.960 --> 0:03:06.360 we're thinking about right now. 0:03:07.240 --> 0:03:09.160 I think this is the issue is, you know, the 0:03:09.160 --> 0:03:12.239 Trump administration is not being clear about exactly what's happening. 0:03:12.320 --> 0:03:15.760 This morning, you had Commerce Secretary Lutnik saying tariffs may 0:03:15.800 --> 0:03:19.880 go into effect tomorrow, but at lower levels. Treasury Secretary 0:03:19.880 --> 0:03:22.960 Bescent said tariffs might be paused if Canada and Mexico 0:03:23.200 --> 0:03:26.720 increase their tariffs on China. In fact, Secretary Lutnik a 0:03:26.760 --> 0:03:29.919 couple hours ago said, we'll have an announcement tomorrow. Except 0:03:30.000 --> 0:03:32.800 the problem is these tariffs supposedly go into effect at 0:03:32.840 --> 0:03:36.160 midnight tonight. I think the uncertainty is extremely hard for 0:03:36.200 --> 0:03:40.800 both consumers and businesses to operate in this environment. The 0:03:40.840 --> 0:03:43.440 other issue have for farmers that you know President Trump 0:03:43.520 --> 0:03:46.600 is boasting about the returns that they'll get from this 0:03:46.680 --> 0:03:50.360 on truth social is that this could increase their fertilizer prices, 0:03:50.440 --> 0:03:53.200 the prices they pay for agricultural equipment, much of which 0:03:53.240 --> 0:03:56.640 is imported. And so even though you may have you know, 0:03:56.840 --> 0:04:00.560 increases in demand for domestically produced agriculture, much of our 0:04:00.600 --> 0:04:03.920 agriculture products right now are imported, especially things like food 0:04:03.960 --> 0:04:07.720 and groceries. The input costs for how much it costs 0:04:07.720 --> 0:04:10.720 to produce those is likely to rise, sort of limiting 0:04:10.760 --> 0:04:14.040 what farmers are able to do in terms of increasing supply. 0:04:15.360 --> 0:04:17.760 Well, so, which one of these keeps you up at night? 0:04:18.240 --> 0:04:20.680 Which one has the biggest impact on the US economy? 0:04:20.720 --> 0:04:23.920 Is it Mexico Canada tariffs that could be implemented tomorrow. 0:04:24.000 --> 0:04:26.719 Is it reciprocals that come in April Autos steal an 0:04:26.760 --> 0:04:28.919 aluminum cop for some of the stuff that we've already 0:04:28.960 --> 0:04:31.640 talked about. Liz, you've got a big menu to pick from. 0:04:32.520 --> 0:04:34.039 It all keeps me up at night, and I think 0:04:34.040 --> 0:04:37.800 more importantly, it keeps American families and consumers up. You know, 0:04:37.880 --> 0:04:40.880 they voted for President Trump in hopes that he would 0:04:40.880 --> 0:04:43.960 bring down their prices, especially those they're facing on essentials 0:04:43.960 --> 0:04:47.599 at the grocery store. And instead of bringing their prices down, 0:04:47.720 --> 0:04:50.599 he is focused on, you know, indiscriminate tariffs that do 0:04:50.720 --> 0:04:55.440 nothing to protect American jobs or strengthen US manufacturing. And 0:04:55.560 --> 0:05:00.479 instead of imposing tariffs on allies on Canada that will 0:05:00.560 --> 0:05:03.680 hurt workers and raised prices, he really should be focusing 0:05:03.720 --> 0:05:07.440 on holding countries like China accountable for undercutting American workers 0:05:07.440 --> 0:05:10.279 and businesses. Sort Of lost in this whole conversation is 0:05:10.279 --> 0:05:13.719 that Trump walk back closing the Deminimus loophole that allows 0:05:13.839 --> 0:05:16.720 China to flood the US with cheap goods without being 0:05:16.800 --> 0:05:19.400 expected or paying tariffs. So it keeps me up at 0:05:19.480 --> 0:05:21.920 night that we're not doing any of this strategically. There 0:05:21.920 --> 0:05:25.839 are certainly strategic cases for tariffs. The President doesn't seem 0:05:25.880 --> 0:05:27.919 to be making them and certainly doesn't seem to be 0:05:28.279 --> 0:05:31.640 implementing them in a strategic way, which really does ultimately 0:05:31.680 --> 0:05:37.360 hurt both consumers, workers, families, and agriculture, you know, farmers, 0:05:37.360 --> 0:05:38.560 the whole nine yards. 0:05:40.040 --> 0:05:42.599 Well, so, Liz, when we consider the impact on consumers 0:05:42.600 --> 0:05:45.080 and the actual prices, they will see what we frequently 0:05:45.120 --> 0:05:48.839 hear from officials in the Trump administration are those aligned 0:05:48.880 --> 0:05:51.000 with his way of thinking on tariffs? Is what we're 0:05:51.040 --> 0:05:54.120 talking about here is a one time price increase, not 0:05:54.200 --> 0:05:59.200 necessarily sustained inflation as we experienced during the Biden administration. 0:05:59.520 --> 0:06:01.400 Is there a world in which though a one time 0:06:01.480 --> 0:06:05.760 price increase can actually precipitate an inflationary spiral if consumers 0:06:05.800 --> 0:06:08.760 expect that prices are going to keep going up even 0:06:08.760 --> 0:06:11.000 if they wouldn't have necessarily on their own. 0:06:11.680 --> 0:06:13.919 Yeah, I don't think this. There's any world where this 0:06:14.000 --> 0:06:16.919 is a one time increase. If these are all implemented 0:06:16.960 --> 0:06:20.880 in such a haphazard way, you know, as Joe said before, 0:06:21.480 --> 0:06:23.680 maybe these are leveled on top of each other, Maybe 0:06:23.720 --> 0:06:26.080 something comes tomorrow, and maybe something comes in April. And 0:06:26.080 --> 0:06:28.120 what about in six months when the president gets mad 0:06:28.120 --> 0:06:30.599 in another country that he wouldn't let them land a 0:06:30.640 --> 0:06:34.880 plane full of undocumented immigrants he's trying to deport. This 0:06:35.000 --> 0:06:38.520 really is just a needless trade war that he is 0:06:38.680 --> 0:06:41.240 lever that he is, you know, really picking with the 0:06:41.360 --> 0:06:45.080 entire world. I don't if you expected a one time 0:06:45.279 --> 0:06:47.800 increase in prices, or if that was your goal, you 0:06:47.880 --> 0:06:50.320 might implement all the tariffs all at once, in a 0:06:50.400 --> 0:06:53.880 very clear fashion, on a very clear set of goods. Instead, 0:06:53.960 --> 0:06:57.560 we're getting you know, delays on this, layers on this, 0:06:58.040 --> 0:06:59.960 changing in decisions at the last mint. 0:07:00.120 --> 0:07:00.160 It. 0:07:00.440 --> 0:07:02.599 I don't see how this is a one time price increase, 0:07:03.000 --> 0:07:06.960 especially with where consumer and business sentiment is. I think 0:07:06.960 --> 0:07:09.400 this is likely to spiral and more likely to see 0:07:09.440 --> 0:07:12.480 downstream effects for months to come as the Trump administration 0:07:12.680 --> 0:07:15.520 continues to play games with the implementation of these policies. 0:07:16.560 --> 0:07:18.640 Well, you know, we hear past is prologue a lot 0:07:18.680 --> 0:07:19.120 around here. 0:07:19.400 --> 0:07:23.360 We ask members of the administration about the potential inflationary 0:07:23.440 --> 0:07:26.880 impact of tariff's Liz Scott Besson was presented over the 0:07:26.920 --> 0:07:30.840 weekend with this Peterson Institute report showing the tariff policy 0:07:30.880 --> 0:07:34.800 could cost the typically US household an additional twelve hundred 0:07:34.840 --> 0:07:37.800 dollars a year. He called the report alarmist and referred 0:07:37.840 --> 0:07:39.840 to the first Trump administration. 0:07:40.080 --> 0:07:42.520 That showed tariffs did not affect prices. 0:07:42.520 --> 0:07:44.760 He said, how do you argue with that when you 0:07:44.800 --> 0:07:47.680 do have the example of the first administration. 0:07:48.320 --> 0:07:51.160 For this president, I think tariffs are likely to affect prices. 0:07:51.240 --> 0:07:54.600 It's unlikely to be a full one to one pass through. 0:07:55.000 --> 0:07:59.080 I think the bigger question is what are corporations going 0:07:59.120 --> 0:08:01.760 to do with the announcement of these tariffs? As we 0:08:01.800 --> 0:08:05.040 saw over the last four years, corporations really look for 0:08:05.160 --> 0:08:10.240 opportunities to pass increased prices and then some onto consumers. 0:08:10.760 --> 0:08:14.920 That pricing environment and those conditions really weren't present in 0:08:15.000 --> 0:08:19.080 the seventeen to nineteen period that Secretary of Descent is 0:08:19.120 --> 0:08:22.440 talking about. And so I think the bigger question is 0:08:22.560 --> 0:08:25.240 what are corporations going to do with this increased cost 0:08:25.360 --> 0:08:27.520 for them? How will they pass them on to consumers? 0:08:27.640 --> 0:08:29.880 If it looks anything like the priest you know the 0:08:30.320 --> 0:08:32.760 last four years that we've seen, they're likely to pass 0:08:32.800 --> 0:08:35.760 actually more than a dollar through to consumers because they can, 0:08:35.880 --> 0:08:38.240 because they know that they have favorable pricing conditions. 0:08:39.559 --> 0:08:41.719 Well, so when we consider them that pricing power that 0:08:41.800 --> 0:08:44.160 companies may have, their ability to pass costs on to 0:08:44.240 --> 0:08:47.840 the consumer is dependent on the consumer actually tolerating that 0:08:47.960 --> 0:08:50.840 and still being willing to purchase those items. Is there 0:08:50.880 --> 0:08:53.280 a world, though, list where we just see a precipitous 0:08:53.320 --> 0:08:56.240 drop in demand of consumers with say no, we are 0:08:56.280 --> 0:08:58.320 not going to swallow those increased costs. 0:08:59.280 --> 0:09:01.920 I think that's exactly right. And in fact, retail sales 0:09:01.920 --> 0:09:04.640 fell almost a percentage point in January from the prior 0:09:04.720 --> 0:09:07.680 month according to Commerce Department data we got last week, 0:09:07.840 --> 0:09:10.280 which is the first monthly declined since August of twenty 0:09:10.320 --> 0:09:14.320 twenty four. Consumers are already starting to withhold what they're spending, 0:09:14.360 --> 0:09:17.080 either out of uncertainty or because of increased prices. I 0:09:17.080 --> 0:09:19.599 think you can absolutely expect that to continue. 0:09:20.720 --> 0:09:23.880 Well, you had layoffs and things start to get interesting here, Liz. 0:09:23.920 --> 0:09:25.360 I don't know what kind of numbers we're going to 0:09:25.400 --> 0:09:28.640 see on Friday, and if, in fact a lot of 0:09:28.679 --> 0:09:31.560 these announcements following the reference date might in fact make 0:09:31.640 --> 0:09:33.440 us wait another month or two, but at some point 0:09:33.440 --> 0:09:35.960 we're going to start seeing the impact of federal government 0:09:36.040 --> 0:09:39.600 layoffs in economic data. We've got a jobs report coming 0:09:39.640 --> 0:09:43.160 out on Friday. We know that the Education Department has 0:09:43.160 --> 0:09:46.640 put up a midnight deadline for its staffers. Those who 0:09:46.760 --> 0:09:49.080 quit get a twenty five thousand dollars payout. There's a 0:09:49.120 --> 0:09:52.800 DoD purge coming. We've already talked about USAID and so 0:09:52.880 --> 0:09:55.920 many other agencies. What will that look like in the 0:09:56.000 --> 0:09:58.600 jobs report this week and over the next couple of months. 0:09:59.520 --> 0:10:03.000 The federal government is, though the largest individual employer in 0:10:03.040 --> 0:10:07.079 the country, it accounts for about two percent of total employment. Obviously, 0:10:07.080 --> 0:10:10.319 we're not laying off the entire federal government yet so far. 0:10:11.160 --> 0:10:13.400 I don't expect that we will see especially given where 0:10:13.440 --> 0:10:15.840 the reference period was. I don't expect we'll see a 0:10:15.920 --> 0:10:18.200 massive blip. But I think in the months to come, 0:10:18.240 --> 0:10:20.840 you can expect to start to see those jobs. Both 0:10:20.840 --> 0:10:24.240 of those first order effects of actual federal jobs being cut, 0:10:24.480 --> 0:10:27.439 the second order effects that either federal funding freezes or 0:10:27.480 --> 0:10:30.600 contracts being pulled people who are funded people whose jobs 0:10:30.640 --> 0:10:33.120 are funded by federal spending. And then the third order 0:10:33.160 --> 0:10:35.000 effects are of course, you know, if you have a 0:10:35.000 --> 0:10:38.600 bunch of laid off federal employees or federally funded employees 0:10:38.960 --> 0:10:41.240 stop spending money at the grocery store or at the 0:10:41.320 --> 0:10:43.680 lunch counter, or in their neighborhoods, or not sending their 0:10:43.760 --> 0:10:46.080 kids to degare because they're home. And you have that 0:10:46.200 --> 0:10:49.720 drop in consumer demand, you are ultimately going to see, really, 0:10:50.600 --> 0:10:53.160 you are going to see effects really kind of reverbiate 0:10:53.240 --> 0:10:56.640 through the economy. You have to think about the economy 0:10:56.679 --> 0:11:00.559 that Trump inherited. On paper, he inherited almost a perfect economy, 0:11:00.760 --> 0:11:05.400 high consumer sentiment, low unemployment, inflation almost at target, and 0:11:05.480 --> 0:11:08.760 he has really, within a matter of weeks almost almost 0:11:08.800 --> 0:11:11.280 ruined it. You are starting to see that honeymoon period 0:11:11.320 --> 0:11:13.880 really come to a close. Does not so much look 0:11:14.000 --> 0:11:16.440 like his first term, and certainly does not look like 0:11:16.480 --> 0:11:18.839 the economy that President Biden was able to turn around 0:11:18.880 --> 0:11:21.080 within a couple of months of taking office. So the 0:11:21.120 --> 0:11:24.079 prospects don't look good. And I'm worried about this softening 0:11:24.120 --> 0:11:27.720 that's already happening this close into the administration. And I 0:11:27.760 --> 0:11:29.679 do suspect that if we don't see it in NICH 0:11:29.760 --> 0:11:32.160 Jobs report, the next two won't be so rosy. And 0:11:32.160 --> 0:11:35.040 then we've got CPI next week that might not look 0:11:35.080 --> 0:11:35.520 great either. 0:11:37.200 --> 0:11:40.320 Well, In the meantime, tomorrow, Liz, we are expecting President 0:11:40.320 --> 0:11:43.480 Trump to Trump to address a joint session of Congress, 0:11:43.480 --> 0:11:45.280 in which I'm sure he's going to talk about his 0:11:45.480 --> 0:11:50.000 ambitions for tax cuts and extending the twenty seventeen tax cuts. Specifically, 0:11:50.080 --> 0:11:52.680 is you talk about a softening in the consumer what 0:11:52.679 --> 0:11:54.960 would happen if those actually do expire at the end 0:11:54.960 --> 0:11:55.360 of the year. 0:11:56.280 --> 0:11:59.160 Those tax cuts have very little effect on the vast 0:11:59.160 --> 0:12:02.520 majority of America pocketbooks. For the bottom fifty percent, you're 0:12:02.520 --> 0:12:04.959 looking at a couple hundred dollars, whereas the top point 0:12:04.960 --> 0:12:07.760 one percent you're looking at about three hundred thousand dollars each. 0:12:07.840 --> 0:12:11.360 And so I think, really, if you combine what they 0:12:11.360 --> 0:12:14.599 are proposing, which is massive cuts to things like Medicaid, 0:12:14.920 --> 0:12:19.520 food stamps, vital programs that support middle class families balance sheets, 0:12:19.600 --> 0:12:22.880 and you combine that with large tax cuts for the wealthy, 0:12:22.920 --> 0:12:25.439 who are much less likely to consume and spend in 0:12:25.480 --> 0:12:28.760 the economy, it's both a picture that doesn't look good 0:12:28.880 --> 0:12:31.800 for middle class families but also doesn't look good on 0:12:31.840 --> 0:12:34.360 the broader macro scale in terms of consumer demand. 0:12:35.520 --> 0:12:37.720 Boy, we've got a lots to figure out here, obviously, 0:12:37.800 --> 0:12:40.240 Liz if these I know you're not a market analyst, 0:12:40.760 --> 0:12:42.840 but these terriffs don't take effect. 0:12:42.920 --> 0:12:44.720 Do we have a big rally on our hands? 0:12:46.520 --> 0:12:48.560 I don't think so. We didn't see one when Trump 0:12:48.600 --> 0:12:50.960 pulled down the announcement last time, and I think you know, 0:12:51.200 --> 0:12:53.839 to some extent, they're all priced in, right. I think 0:12:53.840 --> 0:12:57.240 the markets are expecting some amount of chaos here, but 0:12:57.880 --> 0:13:00.600 I don't foresee a big rally given the other things 0:13:00.640 --> 0:13:04.199 going on in the economy, federal job layoffs, consumer sentiment. 0:13:04.840 --> 0:13:07.480 The uncertainty also causes quite a bit of calamity, and 0:13:07.520 --> 0:13:11.160 so I'm certainly not looking at my portfolio expecting a 0:13:11.240 --> 0:13:12.560 rally if that gets pulled down. 0:13:13.960 --> 0:13:14.120 Well. 0:13:14.200 --> 0:13:16.560 Right now, stocks are just around the lows of the session, 0:13:16.600 --> 0:13:18.280 down about a percent on the S and P five 0:13:18.360 --> 0:13:21.839 hundred in Nasdaq one hundred. Liz Pancotti, Managing director of 0:13:21.880 --> 0:13:24.960 Policy and Advocacy at the Groundwork Collective, thank you so 0:13:25.080 --> 0:13:27.680 much for joining us collaborative, I should say, as we 0:13:27.720 --> 0:13:28.880 deal with this breaking news. 0:13:31.120 --> 0:13:34.600 You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch 0:13:34.679 --> 0:13:37.520 us live weekdays at noon and five pm. E's durn 0:13:37.640 --> 0:13:40.400 on Apple, cock Lay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg 0:13:40.480 --> 0:13:43.640 business app. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa 0:13:43.800 --> 0:13:47.400 from our flagship New York station. Just say Alexa play 0:13:47.480 --> 0:13:49.400 Bloomberg eleven thirty. 0:13:50.400 --> 0:13:53.440 The reports of that investment one hundred billion dollars TSMC 0:13:53.880 --> 0:13:56.120 is slated to make in the United States, that expected 0:13:56.120 --> 0:13:58.320 to be announced at the White House by President Trump 0:13:58.400 --> 0:14:01.240 later around this hour. It's scheduled for thirty pm Eastern time. 0:14:01.480 --> 0:14:03.520 We'll see if that holds. Things have been running late 0:14:03.800 --> 0:14:05.840 as of late at the White House, and certainly that 0:14:06.040 --> 0:14:08.880 was true on Friday as well, although things also ended 0:14:08.920 --> 0:14:12.240 earlier than expected. When President Trump was meeting with Ukrainian 0:14:12.280 --> 0:14:15.439 President vladimir's Lynsky, keeping in mind, they were supposed to 0:14:15.559 --> 0:14:18.240 sign a deal on minerals in which the wealth that 0:14:18.320 --> 0:14:20.680 Ukraine derives from minerals was going to be shared with 0:14:20.760 --> 0:14:23.600 the United States, the President seeing that as a step 0:14:23.640 --> 0:14:26.600 toward peace ultimately with Russia, in a way to provide 0:14:26.640 --> 0:14:30.840 security guarantee to Ukraine through economic means. But as we've 0:14:30.840 --> 0:14:32.680 all learned and I'm sure have seen replayed over the 0:14:32.760 --> 0:14:35.760 last several days, things went south quickly in that Oval 0:14:35.760 --> 0:14:36.600 Office meeting. 0:14:38.240 --> 0:14:41.440 Mister President with respect, I think it's disrespectful. 0:14:40.760 --> 0:14:42.240 For you to come into the Oval Office to try 0:14:42.280 --> 0:14:44.160 to litigate this in front of the American media. You 0:14:44.200 --> 0:14:46.840 should be thanking the president for to bring it into 0:14:46.880 --> 0:14:48.360 this conflicts. 0:14:47.840 --> 0:14:50.120 Into Ukraine that you say, what problems we have. 0:14:50.560 --> 0:14:53.200 I have been to Kamban. I were not in a 0:14:53.240 --> 0:14:55.760 good position. I was. You don't have the cards right 0:14:55.800 --> 0:14:58.960 now with us. You start having coins car right. 0:14:58.760 --> 0:15:00.120 Now play. 0:15:01.880 --> 0:15:05.680 You're gambling with World War three and what you're doing 0:15:05.840 --> 0:15:08.720 is very disrespectful to the country. 0:15:08.800 --> 0:15:11.200 Have you said thank you once that lawyer meeting. 0:15:13.480 --> 0:15:17.560 Now, as we just mentioned earlier, we advance over the 0:15:17.600 --> 0:15:20.560 weekend to a meeting in the UK with Prime Minister 0:15:20.680 --> 0:15:24.600 Keir Starmer and commentary from President Zelenski that an end 0:15:24.600 --> 0:15:27.920 of the war with Russia is quote very very far away. 0:15:28.640 --> 0:15:31.440 Donald Trump did not like that line, putting to truth 0:15:31.480 --> 0:15:33.960 social a short time ago. Today, this is the worst 0:15:33.960 --> 0:15:36.440 statement that could have been made by Zelenski, and America 0:15:36.480 --> 0:15:39.640 will not put up for it for much longer. He 0:15:39.720 --> 0:15:42.560 goes on to write, meeting they had with Zelensky stated 0:15:42.600 --> 0:15:45.040 flatly they cannot do the job without the US. Referring 0:15:45.080 --> 0:15:48.200 to the Europeans, and he says, this guy referring to 0:15:48.280 --> 0:15:51.520 Vladimir Zelenski does not want there to be peace as 0:15:51.520 --> 0:15:52.120 long as he has. 0:15:52.200 --> 0:15:53.480 America is backing. 0:15:54.720 --> 0:15:57.680 Zelensky, taking to social media himself out with a statement 0:15:57.720 --> 0:16:01.280 a short time ago to take issue with this, thank 0:16:01.320 --> 0:16:04.240 the American people for what they have given so far, 0:16:04.520 --> 0:16:06.760 and a lot of questions about what this is going 0:16:06.760 --> 0:16:09.120 to lead to with a minerals deal that remains unsigned, 0:16:09.520 --> 0:16:11.480 and what we might hear from the President tomorrow night 0:16:11.520 --> 0:16:14.000 and his address to a joint session of Congress. With 0:16:14.160 --> 0:16:16.120 us to get into all this right now is Michael Allen. 0:16:16.160 --> 0:16:18.640 He's back with us here at the table. Managing director 0:16:18.680 --> 0:16:22.120 Beacon Global Strategy, is former special assistant to President George W. 0:16:22.240 --> 0:16:25.560 Bush in the national security space. Michael, welcome back, Thank 0:16:25.640 --> 0:16:26.400 you to see you. Thank you. 0:16:26.680 --> 0:16:29.920 It's a precarious moment, being right before a major event 0:16:30.080 --> 0:16:33.000 like this that Donald Trump is also professing to tell 0:16:33.000 --> 0:16:33.600 it like it is. 0:16:33.600 --> 0:16:35.520 What's he going to say about Ukraine tomorrow? Might it 0:16:35.560 --> 0:16:36.320 actually be a deal? 0:16:36.640 --> 0:16:36.960 Well? 0:16:37.080 --> 0:16:39.960 I hope that the President will say that he wants 0:16:40.000 --> 0:16:43.600 to get back on side with the Ukrainians and sign 0:16:43.680 --> 0:16:46.320 the minerals deal as soon as possible. But I'm really 0:16:46.360 --> 0:16:48.040 worried right now and I say, this is somebody that 0:16:48.520 --> 0:16:54.520 supports Ukraine. I feel like Zelensky is almost practicing malpractice 0:16:54.560 --> 0:16:57.040 when it comes to politics here. We all know the 0:16:57.040 --> 0:16:59.120 way it should work when you come to visit the 0:16:59.240 --> 0:17:02.280 United States. You have to get this relationship right if 0:17:02.320 --> 0:17:05.119 you're in Ukraine and you depend on the economic and 0:17:05.160 --> 0:17:09.040 military superpower as much as you do. President Trump thinks 0:17:09.040 --> 0:17:12.439 of himself as the honest broker here. We may wish 0:17:12.480 --> 0:17:15.480 he were more on side with the Western Powers, but 0:17:15.640 --> 0:17:18.560 he wants to broker a piece, so he sees himself 0:17:18.880 --> 0:17:21.639 as trying to condition the two parties to get in here. 0:17:21.920 --> 0:17:25.280 And I really feel like Zelenski keeps getting him his 0:17:25.440 --> 0:17:28.960 own way. He should just say I look forward to peace. 0:17:29.040 --> 0:17:31.800 I want it to be a durable piece. He should 0:17:31.840 --> 0:17:35.520 look for security assurances later. Trump wasn't going to issue 0:17:35.560 --> 0:17:37.800 those in the meeting last week. He's not going to 0:17:37.880 --> 0:17:39.639 do it on truth social It would be at the 0:17:39.760 --> 0:17:42.360 end of the day anyway. So I hope he can 0:17:42.440 --> 0:17:45.080 clean his messaging up. He's a politician, He's got to 0:17:45.119 --> 0:17:47.439 be able to read the room. And let's shift the 0:17:47.440 --> 0:17:49.760 focus over to Vladimir Putin. If you want to talk 0:17:49.760 --> 0:17:53.320 about obstinate that's where you'll start seeing it. And let's 0:17:53.400 --> 0:17:55.639 let Putin occupy the space for a little while. 0:17:55.920 --> 0:17:58.000 Well, you speak to an important point here, which is 0:17:58.040 --> 0:17:59.879 that the crux of the issue, it seems, is that 0:18:00.119 --> 0:18:03.399 Ukraine wants more commitment from the US on keeping a 0:18:03.480 --> 0:18:06.600 piece secure than the President right now at least seems 0:18:06.600 --> 0:18:09.600 willing to provide. Dlensky's suggestion in that meeting was a 0:18:09.600 --> 0:18:12.680 mineral's deal alone is not enough that Ukraine needs more 0:18:12.680 --> 0:18:14.679 than that. If that is still the fundamental issue, do 0:18:14.720 --> 0:18:16.840 you see them being able to sort that out? Otherwise, 0:18:16.840 --> 0:18:18.720 why would you crane agree to whatever Trump to goes. 0:18:18.920 --> 0:18:22.040 Well, I see them getting farther away from an eventual 0:18:22.160 --> 0:18:25.280 deal where the United States plays some role in a 0:18:25.359 --> 0:18:28.560 European peacekeeping force. That's why I want Zelensky to keep 0:18:28.600 --> 0:18:32.680 trying to advance the ball forward the minerals deal. It 0:18:33.119 --> 0:18:35.840 could have been a huge win for last week, especially 0:18:35.960 --> 0:18:38.560 considering where they had been the week prior to that. 0:18:39.040 --> 0:18:42.040 And so I'm the dictator of misinformation bubble, Yes, the 0:18:42.080 --> 0:18:45.439 misinformation bubble. You can't. Actually it's not just Trump. 0:18:45.440 --> 0:18:48.800 I don't think any president wants to be messaged negatively 0:18:48.960 --> 0:18:51.960 by another world leader through the media, and you especially 0:18:52.000 --> 0:18:56.000 don't want that in the person's presence in the Oval office. 0:18:56.080 --> 0:18:59.320 So I think to get to where Zolensky needs to go, 0:18:59.480 --> 0:19:00.600 he needs to say. 0:19:00.400 --> 0:19:01.840 The right thing. Step back. 0:19:01.960 --> 0:19:04.840 Let the Europeans advance the ball a little bit on 0:19:04.920 --> 0:19:08.280 security assurances. They had a big meeting yesterday and they 0:19:08.359 --> 0:19:11.080 decided something along the lines of well, why don't we 0:19:11.119 --> 0:19:14.320 do a one month cease fire in terms of in 0:19:14.400 --> 0:19:17.680 the air and in the sea and on energy attacks. 0:19:17.800 --> 0:19:20.560 Let's let them run with the ball for a little while. 0:19:20.680 --> 0:19:22.680 What we heard from the Prime Minister of the UK 0:19:22.800 --> 0:19:27.360 he hosted twenty allies in London on Sunday, kir Starmer 0:19:27.400 --> 0:19:31.280 and talking about joining with France to step up to 0:19:31.359 --> 0:19:34.520 support Ukraine here and forge a peace plan they could 0:19:34.560 --> 0:19:36.359 offer to Donald Trump. I don't know how receptive he's 0:19:36.400 --> 0:19:39.119 going to be to a peace plan that's coming from Europe. 0:19:39.119 --> 0:19:41.639 But here's Kirre Starmer following the meeting with Zelenski and others. 0:19:42.720 --> 0:19:46.359 We are at a crossroads in history today. This is 0:19:46.440 --> 0:19:50.240 not a moment for more talk. It's time to act. 0:19:50.560 --> 0:19:54.040 The UK is prepared to back this with boots on 0:19:54.080 --> 0:19:57.919 the ground and planes in the air, together with others. 0:19:58.400 --> 0:20:00.760 Europe must do the heavy listing. 0:20:02.160 --> 0:20:05.840 A coalition of the willing, as he describes it, I 0:20:05.920 --> 0:20:08.199 feel like we've seen this movie before. 0:20:08.280 --> 0:20:10.359 How much can they actually do on their own without 0:20:10.400 --> 0:20:10.840 the US. 0:20:11.080 --> 0:20:12.919