1 00:00:02,520 --> 00:00:10,119 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the 2 00:00:10,119 --> 00:00:13,880 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at 3 00:00:13,920 --> 00:00:17,119 Speaker 1: noon and five pm Eastern on Apple, Cocklay and Android 4 00:00:17,160 --> 00:00:20,520 Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever 5 00:00:20,600 --> 00:00:23,760 Speaker 1: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 6 00:00:25,120 --> 00:00:28,680 Speaker 2: From a true social post that President Trump has specifically 7 00:00:28,680 --> 00:00:31,680 Speaker 2: addressed to quote the great farmers of the United States, 8 00:00:31,680 --> 00:00:34,080 Speaker 2: it reads as follows, get ready to start making a 9 00:00:34,120 --> 00:00:37,040 Speaker 2: lot of agricultural product to be sold inside of the 10 00:00:37,120 --> 00:00:41,080 Speaker 2: United States. Tariffs will go on external product on April second, 11 00:00:41,360 --> 00:00:44,960 Speaker 2: ending this true social post. Have fun. And when we 12 00:00:45,000 --> 00:00:48,120 Speaker 2: consider what the impact of this could be, Joe, US 13 00:00:48,159 --> 00:00:53,440 Speaker 2: agricultural imports buy and large from other countries include horticultural products, fruits, vegetables, 14 00:00:53,840 --> 00:00:56,160 Speaker 2: that sort of thing. We do actually import. 15 00:00:55,920 --> 00:00:56,320 Speaker 3: A lot of that. 16 00:00:56,360 --> 00:00:59,080 Speaker 2: In fact, the annual growth rate was nearly six percent 17 00:00:59,120 --> 00:01:02,320 Speaker 2: from fiscal years to twenty thirteen to twenty twenty three. 18 00:01:02,440 --> 00:01:04,240 Speaker 2: And the fact that this is April second that he's 19 00:01:04,280 --> 00:01:08,520 Speaker 2: talking about means we tack this on, presumably to reciprocal 20 00:01:08,560 --> 00:01:11,800 Speaker 2: tariffs that he suggested, we'll go into effect that date. Autostos, 21 00:01:11,959 --> 00:01:13,920 Speaker 2: what else am I missing, there's a laundry. 22 00:01:13,520 --> 00:01:15,400 Speaker 3: List, steal an aluminum? Is that the second? 23 00:01:15,720 --> 00:01:17,680 Speaker 4: I might have to check my home game for that one, 24 00:01:17,720 --> 00:01:21,160 Speaker 4: because the timeline is getting a little confused here. External products, 25 00:01:21,200 --> 00:01:24,960 Speaker 4: he refers to, Yeah, James Copper, that's another one that 26 00:01:25,000 --> 00:01:27,399 Speaker 4: we're looking at as well. The question is will any 27 00:01:27,440 --> 00:01:30,560 Speaker 4: of these be implemented? And, by the way, how long 28 00:01:30,600 --> 00:01:32,880 Speaker 4: it might take our great farmers, as he refers to them, 29 00:01:32,959 --> 00:01:36,760 Speaker 4: to ramp up production to replace what could be a 30 00:01:36,760 --> 00:01:40,600 Speaker 4: lot of missing imports and prevent prices from rising. This 31 00:01:40,680 --> 00:01:43,720 Speaker 4: is part of our conversation with Liz Pancotti, who's joining 32 00:01:43,760 --> 00:01:45,600 Speaker 4: us right now to talk it out. Managing director of 33 00:01:45,640 --> 00:01:50,320 Speaker 4: Public Policy and Advocacy at the Groundwork Collaborative. Liz was 34 00:01:50,320 --> 00:01:53,240 Speaker 4: an economic advisor to Senator Bernie Sanders, and it's great 35 00:01:53,240 --> 00:01:55,400 Speaker 4: to have you with us here, Liz, I'm not even 36 00:01:55,440 --> 00:01:58,600 Speaker 4: sure where to begin, but big picture, you see the 37 00:01:58,640 --> 00:02:01,360 Speaker 4: confusion in the markets here. What do you do with 38 00:02:01,400 --> 00:02:03,440 Speaker 4: the lack of information when it comes to tariffs? And 39 00:02:03,440 --> 00:02:04,920 Speaker 4: do you think any of them will in fact be 40 00:02:05,000 --> 00:02:06,680 Speaker 4: put into effect tomorrow? 41 00:02:07,720 --> 00:02:11,480 Speaker 5: You know, I think everyone's quite confused. This morning's ism 42 00:02:11,560 --> 00:02:17,040 Speaker 5: manufacturing report hammered business uncertainty about tariffs, which is affecting 43 00:02:17,120 --> 00:02:20,760 Speaker 5: both consumer spending and capital spending. Folks are just not 44 00:02:20,880 --> 00:02:23,639 Speaker 5: willing to make decisions about what to spend and if 45 00:02:23,680 --> 00:02:25,959 Speaker 5: to spend, and as a result, you're seeing quite a 46 00:02:26,000 --> 00:02:30,079 Speaker 5: bit of economic softening. Consumer sentiment is down, consumer inflation 47 00:02:30,240 --> 00:02:34,320 Speaker 5: expectations are up, small business optimism is down, and uncertainty 48 00:02:34,360 --> 00:02:36,840 Speaker 5: is up. Consumer spending is down, and we just heard 49 00:02:36,880 --> 00:02:39,640 Speaker 5: the market's report. It's not looking good. 50 00:02:40,560 --> 00:02:43,000 Speaker 2: Well, and there is a certain degree of overlap here. 51 00:02:43,200 --> 00:02:46,000 Speaker 2: I want to ask about, Liz, because the two largest 52 00:02:46,040 --> 00:02:50,280 Speaker 2: suppliers of US agricultural imports Canada and the European Union, 53 00:02:50,320 --> 00:02:53,040 Speaker 2: followed by Mexico, and we're already talking about tariffs going 54 00:02:53,040 --> 00:02:56,960 Speaker 2: into place potentially on Canadian and New Mexican goods tomorrow 55 00:02:57,000 --> 00:03:00,480 Speaker 2: of twenty five percent. What happens to all of these 56 00:03:00,480 --> 00:03:02,920 Speaker 2: are compounded, then they all layer on top of each other, 57 00:03:03,000 --> 00:03:04,920 Speaker 2: and the rates ultimately end up much higher than what 58 00:03:04,960 --> 00:03:06,360 Speaker 2: we're thinking about right now. 59 00:03:07,240 --> 00:03:09,160 Speaker 5: I think this is the issue is, you know, the 60 00:03:09,160 --> 00:03:12,239 Speaker 5: Trump administration is not being clear about exactly what's happening. 61 00:03:12,320 --> 00:03:15,760 Speaker 5: This morning, you had Commerce Secretary Lutnik saying tariffs may 62 00:03:15,800 --> 00:03:19,880 Speaker 5: go into effect tomorrow, but at lower levels. Treasury Secretary 63 00:03:19,880 --> 00:03:22,960 Speaker 5: Bescent said tariffs might be paused if Canada and Mexico 64 00:03:23,200 --> 00:03:26,720 Speaker 5: increase their tariffs on China. In fact, Secretary Lutnik a 65 00:03:26,760 --> 00:03:29,919 Speaker 5: couple hours ago said, we'll have an announcement tomorrow. Except 66 00:03:30,000 --> 00:03:32,800 Speaker 5: the problem is these tariffs supposedly go into effect at 67 00:03:32,840 --> 00:03:36,160 Speaker 5: midnight tonight. I think the uncertainty is extremely hard for 68 00:03:36,200 --> 00:03:40,800 Speaker 5: both consumers and businesses to operate in this environment. The 69 00:03:40,840 --> 00:03:43,440 Speaker 5: other issue have for farmers that you know President Trump 70 00:03:43,520 --> 00:03:46,600 Speaker 5: is boasting about the returns that they'll get from this 71 00:03:46,680 --> 00:03:50,360 Speaker 5: on truth social is that this could increase their fertilizer prices, 72 00:03:50,440 --> 00:03:53,200 Speaker 5: the prices they pay for agricultural equipment, much of which 73 00:03:53,240 --> 00:03:56,640 Speaker 5: is imported. And so even though you may have you know, 74 00:03:56,840 --> 00:04:00,560 Speaker 5: increases in demand for domestically produced agriculture, much of our 75 00:04:00,600 --> 00:04:03,920 Speaker 5: agriculture products right now are imported, especially things like food 76 00:04:03,960 --> 00:04:07,720 Speaker 5: and groceries. The input costs for how much it costs 77 00:04:07,720 --> 00:04:10,720 Speaker 5: to produce those is likely to rise, sort of limiting 78 00:04:10,760 --> 00:04:14,040 Speaker 5: what farmers are able to do in terms of increasing supply. 79 00:04:15,360 --> 00:04:17,760 Speaker 4: Well, so, which one of these keeps you up at night? 80 00:04:18,240 --> 00:04:20,680 Speaker 4: Which one has the biggest impact on the US economy? 81 00:04:20,720 --> 00:04:23,920 Speaker 4: Is it Mexico Canada tariffs that could be implemented tomorrow. 82 00:04:24,000 --> 00:04:26,719 Speaker 4: Is it reciprocals that come in April Autos steal an 83 00:04:26,760 --> 00:04:28,919 Speaker 4: aluminum cop for some of the stuff that we've already 84 00:04:28,960 --> 00:04:31,640 Speaker 4: talked about. Liz, you've got a big menu to pick from. 85 00:04:32,520 --> 00:04:34,039 Speaker 5: It all keeps me up at night, and I think 86 00:04:34,040 --> 00:04:37,800 Speaker 5: more importantly, it keeps American families and consumers up. You know, 87 00:04:37,880 --> 00:04:40,880 Speaker 5: they voted for President Trump in hopes that he would 88 00:04:40,880 --> 00:04:43,960 Speaker 5: bring down their prices, especially those they're facing on essentials 89 00:04:43,960 --> 00:04:47,599 Speaker 5: at the grocery store. And instead of bringing their prices down, 90 00:04:47,720 --> 00:04:50,599 Speaker 5: he is focused on, you know, indiscriminate tariffs that do 91 00:04:50,720 --> 00:04:55,440 Speaker 5: nothing to protect American jobs or strengthen US manufacturing. And 92 00:04:55,560 --> 00:05:00,479 Speaker 5: instead of imposing tariffs on allies on Canada that will 93 00:05:00,560 --> 00:05:03,680 Speaker 5: hurt workers and raised prices, he really should be focusing 94 00:05:03,720 --> 00:05:07,440 Speaker 5: on holding countries like China accountable for undercutting American workers 95 00:05:07,440 --> 00:05:10,279 Speaker 5: and businesses. Sort Of lost in this whole conversation is 96 00:05:10,279 --> 00:05:13,719 Speaker 5: that Trump walk back closing the Deminimus loophole that allows 97 00:05:13,839 --> 00:05:16,720 Speaker 5: China to flood the US with cheap goods without being 98 00:05:16,800 --> 00:05:19,400 Speaker 5: expected or paying tariffs. So it keeps me up at 99 00:05:19,480 --> 00:05:21,920 Speaker 5: night that we're not doing any of this strategically. There 100 00:05:21,920 --> 00:05:25,839 Speaker 5: are certainly strategic cases for tariffs. The President doesn't seem 101 00:05:25,880 --> 00:05:27,919 Speaker 5: to be making them and certainly doesn't seem to be 102 00:05:28,279 --> 00:05:31,640 Speaker 5: implementing them in a strategic way, which really does ultimately 103 00:05:31,680 --> 00:05:37,360 Speaker 5: hurt both consumers, workers, families, and agriculture, you know, farmers, 104 00:05:37,360 --> 00:05:38,560 Speaker 5: the whole nine yards. 105 00:05:40,040 --> 00:05:42,599 Speaker 2: Well, so, Liz, when we consider the impact on consumers 106 00:05:42,600 --> 00:05:45,080 Speaker 2: and the actual prices, they will see what we frequently 107 00:05:45,120 --> 00:05:48,839 Speaker 2: hear from officials in the Trump administration are those aligned 108 00:05:48,880 --> 00:05:51,000 Speaker 2: with his way of thinking on tariffs? Is what we're 109 00:05:51,040 --> 00:05:54,120 Speaker 2: talking about here is a one time price increase, not 110 00:05:54,200 --> 00:05:59,200 Speaker 2: necessarily sustained inflation as we experienced during the Biden administration. 111 00:05:59,520 --> 00:06:01,400 Speaker 2: Is there a world in which though a one time 112 00:06:01,480 --> 00:06:05,760 Speaker 2: price increase can actually precipitate an inflationary spiral if consumers 113 00:06:05,800 --> 00:06:08,760 Speaker 2: expect that prices are going to keep going up even 114 00:06:08,760 --> 00:06:11,000 Speaker 2: if they wouldn't have necessarily on their own. 115 00:06:11,680 --> 00:06:13,919 Speaker 5: Yeah, I don't think this. There's any world where this 116 00:06:14,000 --> 00:06:16,919 Speaker 5: is a one time increase. If these are all implemented 117 00:06:16,960 --> 00:06:20,880 Speaker 5: in such a haphazard way, you know, as Joe said before, 118 00:06:21,480 --> 00:06:23,680 Speaker 5: maybe these are leveled on top of each other, Maybe 119 00:06:23,720 --> 00:06:26,080 Speaker 5: something comes tomorrow, and maybe something comes in April. And 120 00:06:26,080 --> 00:06:28,120 Speaker 5: what about in six months when the president gets mad 121 00:06:28,120 --> 00:06:30,599 Speaker 5: in another country that he wouldn't let them land a 122 00:06:30,640 --> 00:06:34,880 Speaker 5: plane full of undocumented immigrants he's trying to deport. This 123 00:06:35,000 --> 00:06:38,520 Speaker 5: really is just a needless trade war that he is 124 00:06:38,680 --> 00:06:41,240 Speaker 5: lever that he is, you know, really picking with the 125 00:06:41,360 --> 00:06:45,080 Speaker 5: entire world. I don't if you expected a one time 126 00:06:45,279 --> 00:06:47,800 Speaker 5: increase in prices, or if that was your goal, you 127 00:06:47,880 --> 00:06:50,320 Speaker 5: might implement all the tariffs all at once, in a 128 00:06:50,400 --> 00:06:53,880 Speaker 5: very clear fashion, on a very clear set of goods. Instead, 129 00:06:53,960 --> 00:06:57,560 Speaker 5: we're getting you know, delays on this, layers on this, 130 00:06:58,040 --> 00:06:59,960 Speaker 5: changing in decisions at the last mint. 131 00:07:00,120 --> 00:07:00,160 Speaker 6: It. 132 00:07:00,440 --> 00:07:02,599 Speaker 5: I don't see how this is a one time price increase, 133 00:07:03,000 --> 00:07:06,960 Speaker 5: especially with where consumer and business sentiment is. I think 134 00:07:06,960 --> 00:07:09,400 Speaker 5: this is likely to spiral and more likely to see 135 00:07:09,440 --> 00:07:12,480 Speaker 5: downstream effects for months to come as the Trump administration 136 00:07:12,680 --> 00:07:15,520 Speaker 5: continues to play games with the implementation of these policies. 137 00:07:16,560 --> 00:07:18,640 Speaker 3: Well, you know, we hear past is prologue a lot 138 00:07:18,680 --> 00:07:19,120 Speaker 3: around here. 139 00:07:19,400 --> 00:07:23,360 Speaker 4: We ask members of the administration about the potential inflationary 140 00:07:23,440 --> 00:07:26,880 Speaker 4: impact of tariff's Liz Scott Besson was presented over the 141 00:07:26,920 --> 00:07:30,840 Speaker 4: weekend with this Peterson Institute report showing the tariff policy 142 00:07:30,880 --> 00:07:34,800 Speaker 4: could cost the typically US household an additional twelve hundred 143 00:07:34,840 --> 00:07:37,800 Speaker 4: dollars a year. He called the report alarmist and referred 144 00:07:37,840 --> 00:07:39,840 Speaker 4: to the first Trump administration. 145 00:07:40,080 --> 00:07:42,520 Speaker 3: That showed tariffs did not affect prices. 146 00:07:42,520 --> 00:07:44,760 Speaker 4: He said, how do you argue with that when you 147 00:07:44,800 --> 00:07:47,680 Speaker 4: do have the example of the first administration. 148 00:07:48,320 --> 00:07:51,160 Speaker 5: For this president, I think tariffs are likely to affect prices. 149 00:07:51,240 --> 00:07:54,600 Speaker 5: It's unlikely to be a full one to one pass through. 150 00:07:55,000 --> 00:07:59,080 Speaker 5: I think the bigger question is what are corporations going 151 00:07:59,120 --> 00:08:01,760 Speaker 5: to do with the announcement of these tariffs? As we 152 00:08:01,800 --> 00:08:05,040 Speaker 5: saw over the last four years, corporations really look for 153 00:08:05,160 --> 00:08:10,240 Speaker 5: opportunities to pass increased prices and then some onto consumers. 154 00:08:10,760 --> 00:08:14,920 Speaker 5: That pricing environment and those conditions really weren't present in 155 00:08:15,000 --> 00:08:19,080 Speaker 5: the seventeen to nineteen period that Secretary of Descent is 156 00:08:19,120 --> 00:08:22,440 Speaker 5: talking about. And so I think the bigger question is 157 00:08:22,560 --> 00:08:25,240 Speaker 5: what are corporations going to do with this increased cost 158 00:08:25,360 --> 00:08:27,520 Speaker 5: for them? How will they pass them on to consumers? 159 00:08:27,640 --> 00:08:29,880 Speaker 5: If it looks anything like the priest you know the 160 00:08:30,320 --> 00:08:32,760 Speaker 5: last four years that we've seen, they're likely to pass 161 00:08:32,800 --> 00:08:35,760 Speaker 5: actually more than a dollar through to consumers because they can, 162 00:08:35,880 --> 00:08:38,240 Speaker 5: because they know that they have favorable pricing conditions. 163 00:08:39,559 --> 00:08:41,719 Speaker 2: Well, so when we consider them that pricing power that 164 00:08:41,800 --> 00:08:44,160 Speaker 2: companies may have, their ability to pass costs on to 165 00:08:44,240 --> 00:08:47,840 Speaker 2: the consumer is dependent on the consumer actually tolerating that 166 00:08:47,960 --> 00:08:50,840 Speaker 2: and still being willing to purchase those items. Is there 167 00:08:50,880 --> 00:08:53,280 Speaker 2: a world, though, list where we just see a precipitous 168 00:08:53,320 --> 00:08:56,240 Speaker 2: drop in demand of consumers with say no, we are 169 00:08:56,280 --> 00:08:58,320 Speaker 2: not going to swallow those increased costs. 170 00:08:59,280 --> 00:09:01,920 Speaker 5: I think that's exactly right. And in fact, retail sales 171 00:09:01,920 --> 00:09:04,640 Speaker 5: fell almost a percentage point in January from the prior 172 00:09:04,720 --> 00:09:07,680 Speaker 5: month according to Commerce Department data we got last week, 173 00:09:07,840 --> 00:09:10,280 Speaker 5: which is the first monthly declined since August of twenty 174 00:09:10,320 --> 00:09:14,320 Speaker 5: twenty four. Consumers are already starting to withhold what they're spending, 175 00:09:14,360 --> 00:09:17,080 Speaker 5: either out of uncertainty or because of increased prices. I 176 00:09:17,080 --> 00:09:19,599 Speaker 5: think you can absolutely expect that to continue. 177 00:09:20,720 --> 00:09:23,880 Speaker 4: Well, you had layoffs and things start to get interesting here, Liz. 178 00:09:23,920 --> 00:09:25,360 Speaker 4: I don't know what kind of numbers we're going to 179 00:09:25,400 --> 00:09:28,640 Speaker 4: see on Friday, and if, in fact a lot of 180 00:09:28,679 --> 00:09:31,560 Speaker 4: these announcements following the reference date might in fact make 181 00:09:31,640 --> 00:09:33,440 Speaker 4: us wait another month or two, but at some point 182 00:09:33,440 --> 00:09:35,960 Speaker 4: we're going to start seeing the impact of federal government 183 00:09:36,040 --> 00:09:39,600 Speaker 4: layoffs in economic data. We've got a jobs report coming 184 00:09:39,640 --> 00:09:43,160 Speaker 4: out on Friday. We know that the Education Department has 185 00:09:43,160 --> 00:09:46,640 Speaker 4: put up a midnight deadline for its staffers. Those who 186 00:09:46,760 --> 00:09:49,080 Speaker 4: quit get a twenty five thousand dollars payout. There's a 187 00:09:49,120 --> 00:09:52,800 Speaker 4: DoD purge coming. We've already talked about USAID and so 188 00:09:52,880 --> 00:09:55,920 Speaker 4: many other agencies. What will that look like in the 189 00:09:56,000 --> 00:09:58,600 Speaker 4: jobs report this week and over the next couple of months. 190 00:09:59,520 --> 00:10:03,000 Speaker 5: The federal government is, though the largest individual employer in 191 00:10:03,040 --> 00:10:07,079 Speaker 5: the country, it accounts for about two percent of total employment. Obviously, 192 00:10:07,080 --> 00:10:10,319 Speaker 5: we're not laying off the entire federal government yet so far. 193 00:10:11,160 --> 00:10:13,400 Speaker 5: I don't expect that we will see especially given where 194 00:10:13,440 --> 00:10:15,840 Speaker 5: the reference period was. I don't expect we'll see a 195 00:10:15,920 --> 00:10:18,200 Speaker 5: massive blip. But I think in the months to come, 196 00:10:18,240 --> 00:10:20,840 Speaker 5: you can expect to start to see those jobs. Both 197 00:10:20,840 --> 00:10:24,240 Speaker 5: of those first order effects of actual federal jobs being cut, 198 00:10:24,480 --> 00:10:27,439 Speaker 5: the second order effects that either federal funding freezes or 199 00:10:27,480 --> 00:10:30,600 Speaker 5: contracts being pulled people who are funded people whose jobs 200 00:10:30,640 --> 00:10:33,120 Speaker 5: are funded by federal spending. And then the third order 201 00:10:33,160 --> 00:10:35,000 Speaker 5: effects are of course, you know, if you have a 202 00:10:35,000 --> 00:10:38,600 Speaker 5: bunch of laid off federal employees or federally funded employees 203 00:10:38,960 --> 00:10:41,240 Speaker 5: stop spending money at the grocery store or at the 204 00:10:41,320 --> 00:10:43,680 Speaker 5: lunch counter, or in their neighborhoods, or not sending their 205 00:10:43,760 --> 00:10:46,080 Speaker 5: kids to degare because they're home. And you have that 206 00:10:46,200 --> 00:10:49,720 Speaker 5: drop in consumer demand, you are ultimately going to see, really, 207 00:10:50,600 --> 00:10:53,160 Speaker 5: you are going to see effects really kind of reverbiate 208 00:10:53,240 --> 00:10:56,640 Speaker 5: through the economy. You have to think about the economy 209 00:10:56,679 --> 00:11:00,559 Speaker 5: that Trump inherited. On paper, he inherited almost a perfect economy, 210 00:11:00,760 --> 00:11:05,400 Speaker 5: high consumer sentiment, low unemployment, inflation almost at target, and 211 00:11:05,480 --> 00:11:08,760 Speaker 5: he has really, within a matter of weeks almost almost 212 00:11:08,800 --> 00:11:11,280 Speaker 5: ruined it. You are starting to see that honeymoon period 213 00:11:11,320 --> 00:11:13,880 Speaker 5: really come to a close. Does not so much look 214 00:11:14,000 --> 00:11:16,440 Speaker 5: like his first term, and certainly does not look like 215 00:11:16,480 --> 00:11:18,839 Speaker 5: the economy that President Biden was able to turn around 216 00:11:18,880 --> 00:11:21,080 Speaker 5: within a couple of months of taking office. So the 217 00:11:21,120 --> 00:11:24,079 Speaker 5: prospects don't look good. And I'm worried about this softening 218 00:11:24,120 --> 00:11:27,720 Speaker 5: that's already happening this close into the administration. And I 219 00:11:27,760 --> 00:11:29,679 Speaker 5: do suspect that if we don't see it in NICH 220 00:11:29,760 --> 00:11:32,160 Speaker 5: Jobs report, the next two won't be so rosy. And 221 00:11:32,160 --> 00:11:35,040 Speaker 5: then we've got CPI next week that might not look 222 00:11:35,080 --> 00:11:35,520 Speaker 5: great either. 223 00:11:37,200 --> 00:11:40,320 Speaker 2: Well, In the meantime, tomorrow, Liz, we are expecting President 224 00:11:40,320 --> 00:11:43,480 Speaker 2: Trump to Trump to address a joint session of Congress, 225 00:11:43,480 --> 00:11:45,280 Speaker 2: in which I'm sure he's going to talk about his 226 00:11:45,480 --> 00:11:50,000 Speaker 2: ambitions for tax cuts and extending the twenty seventeen tax cuts. Specifically, 227 00:11:50,080 --> 00:11:52,680 Speaker 2: is you talk about a softening in the consumer what 228 00:11:52,679 --> 00:11:54,960 Speaker 2: would happen if those actually do expire at the end 229 00:11:54,960 --> 00:11:55,360 Speaker 2: of the year. 230 00:11:56,280 --> 00:11:59,160 Speaker 5: Those tax cuts have very little effect on the vast 231 00:11:59,160 --> 00:12:02,520 Speaker 5: majority of America pocketbooks. For the bottom fifty percent, you're 232 00:12:02,520 --> 00:12:04,959 Speaker 5: looking at a couple hundred dollars, whereas the top point 233 00:12:04,960 --> 00:12:07,760 Speaker 5: one percent you're looking at about three hundred thousand dollars each. 234 00:12:07,840 --> 00:12:11,360 Speaker 5: And so I think, really, if you combine what they 235 00:12:11,360 --> 00:12:14,599 Speaker 5: are proposing, which is massive cuts to things like Medicaid, 236 00:12:14,920 --> 00:12:19,520 Speaker 5: food stamps, vital programs that support middle class families balance sheets, 237 00:12:19,600 --> 00:12:22,880 Speaker 5: and you combine that with large tax cuts for the wealthy, 238 00:12:22,920 --> 00:12:25,439 Speaker 5: who are much less likely to consume and spend in 239 00:12:25,480 --> 00:12:28,760 Speaker 5: the economy, it's both a picture that doesn't look good 240 00:12:28,880 --> 00:12:31,800 Speaker 5: for middle class families but also doesn't look good on 241 00:12:31,840 --> 00:12:34,360 Speaker 5: the broader macro scale in terms of consumer demand. 242 00:12:35,520 --> 00:12:37,720 Speaker 4: Boy, we've got a lots to figure out here, obviously, 243 00:12:37,800 --> 00:12:40,240 Speaker 4: Liz if these I know you're not a market analyst, 244 00:12:40,760 --> 00:12:42,840 Speaker 4: but these terriffs don't take effect. 245 00:12:42,920 --> 00:12:44,720 Speaker 3: Do we have a big rally on our hands? 246 00:12:46,520 --> 00:12:48,560 Speaker 5: I don't think so. We didn't see one when Trump 247 00:12:48,600 --> 00:12:50,960 Speaker 5: pulled down the announcement last time, and I think you know, 248 00:12:51,200 --> 00:12:53,839 Speaker 5: to some extent, they're all priced in, right. I think 249 00:12:53,840 --> 00:12:57,240 Speaker 5: the markets are expecting some amount of chaos here, but 250 00:12:57,880 --> 00:13:00,600 Speaker 5: I don't foresee a big rally given the other things 251 00:13:00,640 --> 00:13:04,199 Speaker 5: going on in the economy, federal job layoffs, consumer sentiment. 252 00:13:04,840 --> 00:13:07,480 Speaker 5: The uncertainty also causes quite a bit of calamity, and 253 00:13:07,520 --> 00:13:11,160 Speaker 5: so I'm certainly not looking at my portfolio expecting a 254 00:13:11,240 --> 00:13:12,560 Speaker 5: rally if that gets pulled down. 255 00:13:13,960 --> 00:13:14,120 Speaker 7: Well. 256 00:13:14,200 --> 00:13:16,560 Speaker 2: Right now, stocks are just around the lows of the session, 257 00:13:16,600 --> 00:13:18,280 Speaker 2: down about a percent on the S and P five 258 00:13:18,360 --> 00:13:21,839 Speaker 2: hundred in Nasdaq one hundred. Liz Pancotti, Managing director of 259 00:13:21,880 --> 00:13:24,960 Speaker 2: Policy and Advocacy at the Groundwork Collective, thank you so 260 00:13:25,080 --> 00:13:27,680 Speaker 2: much for joining us collaborative, I should say, as we 261 00:13:27,720 --> 00:13:28,880 Speaker 2: deal with this breaking news. 262 00:13:31,120 --> 00:13:34,600 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch 263 00:13:34,679 --> 00:13:37,520 Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon and five pm. E's durn 264 00:13:37,640 --> 00:13:40,400 Speaker 1: on Apple, cock Lay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg 265 00:13:40,480 --> 00:13:43,640 Speaker 1: business app. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa 266 00:13:43,800 --> 00:13:47,400 Speaker 1: from our flagship New York station. Just say Alexa play 267 00:13:47,480 --> 00:13:49,400 Speaker 1: Bloomberg eleven thirty. 268 00:13:50,400 --> 00:13:53,440 Speaker 2: The reports of that investment one hundred billion dollars TSMC 269 00:13:53,880 --> 00:13:56,120 Speaker 2: is slated to make in the United States, that expected 270 00:13:56,120 --> 00:13:58,320 Speaker 2: to be announced at the White House by President Trump 271 00:13:58,400 --> 00:14:01,240 Speaker 2: later around this hour. It's scheduled for thirty pm Eastern time. 272 00:14:01,480 --> 00:14:03,520 Speaker 2: We'll see if that holds. Things have been running late 273 00:14:03,800 --> 00:14:05,840 Speaker 2: as of late at the White House, and certainly that 274 00:14:06,040 --> 00:14:08,880 Speaker 2: was true on Friday as well, although things also ended 275 00:14:08,920 --> 00:14:12,240 Speaker 2: earlier than expected. When President Trump was meeting with Ukrainian 276 00:14:12,280 --> 00:14:15,439 Speaker 2: President vladimir's Lynsky, keeping in mind, they were supposed to 277 00:14:15,559 --> 00:14:18,240 Speaker 2: sign a deal on minerals in which the wealth that 278 00:14:18,320 --> 00:14:20,680 Speaker 2: Ukraine derives from minerals was going to be shared with 279 00:14:20,760 --> 00:14:23,600 Speaker 2: the United States, the President seeing that as a step 280 00:14:23,640 --> 00:14:26,600 Speaker 2: toward peace ultimately with Russia, in a way to provide 281 00:14:26,640 --> 00:14:30,840 Speaker 2: security guarantee to Ukraine through economic means. But as we've 282 00:14:30,840 --> 00:14:32,680 Speaker 2: all learned and I'm sure have seen replayed over the 283 00:14:32,760 --> 00:14:35,760 Speaker 2: last several days, things went south quickly in that Oval 284 00:14:35,760 --> 00:14:36,600 Speaker 2: Office meeting. 285 00:14:38,240 --> 00:14:41,440 Speaker 3: Mister President with respect, I think it's disrespectful. 286 00:14:40,760 --> 00:14:42,240 Speaker 5: For you to come into the Oval Office to try 287 00:14:42,280 --> 00:14:44,160 Speaker 5: to litigate this in front of the American media. You 288 00:14:44,200 --> 00:14:46,840 Speaker 5: should be thanking the president for to bring it into 289 00:14:46,880 --> 00:14:48,360 Speaker 5: this conflicts. 290 00:14:47,840 --> 00:14:50,120 Speaker 6: Into Ukraine that you say, what problems we have. 291 00:14:50,560 --> 00:14:53,200 Speaker 3: I have been to Kamban. I were not in a 292 00:14:53,240 --> 00:14:55,760 Speaker 3: good position. I was. You don't have the cards right 293 00:14:55,800 --> 00:14:58,960 Speaker 3: now with us. You start having coins car right. 294 00:14:58,760 --> 00:15:00,120 Speaker 5: Now play. 295 00:15:01,880 --> 00:15:05,680 Speaker 4: You're gambling with World War three and what you're doing 296 00:15:05,840 --> 00:15:08,720 Speaker 4: is very disrespectful to the country. 297 00:15:08,800 --> 00:15:11,200 Speaker 3: Have you said thank you once that lawyer meeting. 298 00:15:13,480 --> 00:15:17,560 Speaker 4: Now, as we just mentioned earlier, we advance over the 299 00:15:17,600 --> 00:15:20,560 Speaker 4: weekend to a meeting in the UK with Prime Minister 300 00:15:20,680 --> 00:15:24,600 Speaker 4: Keir Starmer and commentary from President Zelenski that an end 301 00:15:24,600 --> 00:15:27,920 Speaker 4: of the war with Russia is quote very very far away. 302 00:15:28,640 --> 00:15:31,440 Speaker 4: Donald Trump did not like that line, putting to truth 303 00:15:31,480 --> 00:15:33,960 Speaker 4: social a short time ago. Today, this is the worst 304 00:15:33,960 --> 00:15:36,440 Speaker 4: statement that could have been made by Zelenski, and America 305 00:15:36,480 --> 00:15:39,640 Speaker 4: will not put up for it for much longer. He 306 00:15:39,720 --> 00:15:42,560 Speaker 4: goes on to write, meeting they had with Zelensky stated 307 00:15:42,600 --> 00:15:45,040 Speaker 4: flatly they cannot do the job without the US. Referring 308 00:15:45,080 --> 00:15:48,200 Speaker 4: to the Europeans, and he says, this guy referring to 309 00:15:48,280 --> 00:15:51,520 Speaker 4: Vladimir Zelenski does not want there to be peace as 310 00:15:51,520 --> 00:15:52,120 Speaker 4: long as he has. 311 00:15:52,200 --> 00:15:53,480 Speaker 3: America is backing. 312 00:15:54,720 --> 00:15:57,680 Speaker 4: Zelensky, taking to social media himself out with a statement 313 00:15:57,720 --> 00:16:01,280 Speaker 4: a short time ago to take issue with this, thank 314 00:16:01,320 --> 00:16:04,240 Speaker 4: the American people for what they have given so far, 315 00:16:04,520 --> 00:16:06,760 Speaker 4: and a lot of questions about what this is going 316 00:16:06,760 --> 00:16:09,120 Speaker 4: to lead to with a minerals deal that remains unsigned, 317 00:16:09,520 --> 00:16:11,480 Speaker 4: and what we might hear from the President tomorrow night 318 00:16:11,520 --> 00:16:14,000 Speaker 4: and his address to a joint session of Congress. With 319 00:16:14,160 --> 00:16:16,120 Speaker 4: us to get into all this right now is Michael Allen. 320 00:16:16,160 --> 00:16:18,640 Speaker 4: He's back with us here at the table. Managing director 321 00:16:18,680 --> 00:16:22,120 Speaker 4: Beacon Global Strategy, is former special assistant to President George W. 322 00:16:22,240 --> 00:16:25,560 Speaker 3: Bush in the national security space. Michael, welcome back, Thank 323 00:16:25,640 --> 00:16:26,400 Speaker 3: you to see you. Thank you. 324 00:16:26,680 --> 00:16:29,920 Speaker 4: It's a precarious moment, being right before a major event 325 00:16:30,080 --> 00:16:33,000 Speaker 4: like this that Donald Trump is also professing to tell 326 00:16:33,000 --> 00:16:33,600 Speaker 4: it like it is. 327 00:16:33,600 --> 00:16:35,520 Speaker 3: What's he going to say about Ukraine tomorrow? Might it 328 00:16:35,560 --> 00:16:36,320 Speaker 3: actually be a deal? 329 00:16:36,640 --> 00:16:36,960 Speaker 8: Well? 330 00:16:37,080 --> 00:16:39,960 Speaker 9: I hope that the President will say that he wants 331 00:16:40,000 --> 00:16:43,600 Speaker 9: to get back on side with the Ukrainians and sign 332 00:16:43,680 --> 00:16:46,320 Speaker 9: the minerals deal as soon as possible. But I'm really 333 00:16:46,360 --> 00:16:48,040 Speaker 9: worried right now and I say, this is somebody that 334 00:16:48,520 --> 00:16:54,520 Speaker 9: supports Ukraine. I feel like Zelensky is almost practicing malpractice 335 00:16:54,560 --> 00:16:57,040 Speaker 9: when it comes to politics here. We all know the 336 00:16:57,040 --> 00:16:59,120 Speaker 9: way it should work when you come to visit the 337 00:16:59,240 --> 00:17:02,280 Speaker 9: United States. You have to get this relationship right if 338 00:17:02,320 --> 00:17:05,119 Speaker 9: you're in Ukraine and you depend on the economic and 339 00:17:05,160 --> 00:17:09,040 Speaker 9: military superpower as much as you do. President Trump thinks 340 00:17:09,040 --> 00:17:12,439 Speaker 9: of himself as the honest broker here. We may wish 341 00:17:12,480 --> 00:17:15,480 Speaker 9: he were more on side with the Western Powers, but 342 00:17:15,640 --> 00:17:18,560 Speaker 9: he wants to broker a piece, so he sees himself 343 00:17:18,880 --> 00:17:21,639 Speaker 9: as trying to condition the two parties to get in here. 344 00:17:21,920 --> 00:17:25,280 Speaker 9: And I really feel like Zelenski keeps getting him his 345 00:17:25,440 --> 00:17:28,960 Speaker 9: own way. He should just say I look forward to peace. 346 00:17:29,040 --> 00:17:31,800 Speaker 9: I want it to be a durable piece. He should 347 00:17:31,840 --> 00:17:35,520 Speaker 9: look for security assurances later. Trump wasn't going to issue 348 00:17:35,560 --> 00:17:37,800 Speaker 9: those in the meeting last week. He's not going to 349 00:17:37,880 --> 00:17:39,639 Speaker 9: do it on truth social It would be at the 350 00:17:39,760 --> 00:17:42,360 Speaker 9: end of the day anyway. So I hope he can 351 00:17:42,440 --> 00:17:45,080 Speaker 9: clean his messaging up. He's a politician, He's got to 352 00:17:45,119 --> 00:17:47,439 Speaker 9: be able to read the room. And let's shift the 353 00:17:47,440 --> 00:17:49,760 Speaker 9: focus over to Vladimir Putin. If you want to talk 354 00:17:49,760 --> 00:17:53,320 Speaker 9: about obstinate that's where you'll start seeing it. And let's 355 00:17:53,400 --> 00:17:55,639 Speaker 9: let Putin occupy the space for a little while. 356 00:17:55,920 --> 00:17:58,000 Speaker 2: Well, you speak to an important point here, which is 357 00:17:58,040 --> 00:17:59,879 Speaker 2: that the crux of the issue, it seems, is that 358 00:18:00,119 --> 00:18:03,399 Speaker 2: Ukraine wants more commitment from the US on keeping a 359 00:18:03,480 --> 00:18:06,600 Speaker 2: piece secure than the President right now at least seems 360 00:18:06,600 --> 00:18:09,600 Speaker 2: willing to provide. Dlensky's suggestion in that meeting was a 361 00:18:09,600 --> 00:18:12,680 Speaker 2: mineral's deal alone is not enough that Ukraine needs more 362 00:18:12,680 --> 00:18:14,679 Speaker 2: than that. If that is still the fundamental issue, do 363 00:18:14,720 --> 00:18:16,840 Speaker 2: you see them being able to sort that out? Otherwise, 364 00:18:16,840 --> 00:18:18,720 Speaker 2: why would you crane agree to whatever Trump to goes. 365 00:18:18,920 --> 00:18:22,040 Speaker 9: Well, I see them getting farther away from an eventual 366 00:18:22,160 --> 00:18:25,280 Speaker 9: deal where the United States plays some role in a 367 00:18:25,359 --> 00:18:28,560 Speaker 9: European peacekeeping force. That's why I want Zelensky to keep 368 00:18:28,600 --> 00:18:32,680 Speaker 9: trying to advance the ball forward the minerals deal. It 369 00:18:33,119 --> 00:18:35,840 Speaker 9: could have been a huge win for last week, especially 370 00:18:35,960 --> 00:18:38,560 Speaker 9: considering where they had been the week prior to that. 371 00:18:39,040 --> 00:18:42,040 Speaker 8: And so I'm the dictator of misinformation bubble, Yes, the 372 00:18:42,080 --> 00:18:45,439 Speaker 8: misinformation bubble. You can't. Actually it's not just Trump. 373 00:18:45,440 --> 00:18:48,800 Speaker 9: I don't think any president wants to be messaged negatively 374 00:18:48,960 --> 00:18:51,960 Speaker 9: by another world leader through the media, and you especially 375 00:18:52,000 --> 00:18:56,000 Speaker 9: don't want that in the person's presence in the Oval office. 376 00:18:56,080 --> 00:18:59,320 Speaker 9: So I think to get to where Zolensky needs to go, 377 00:18:59,480 --> 00:19:00,600 Speaker 9: he needs to say. 378 00:19:00,400 --> 00:19:01,840 Speaker 8: The right thing. Step back. 379 00:19:01,960 --> 00:19:04,840 Speaker 9: Let the Europeans advance the ball a little bit on 380 00:19:04,920 --> 00:19:08,280 Speaker 9: security assurances. They had a big meeting yesterday and they 381 00:19:08,359 --> 00:19:11,080 Speaker 9: decided something along the lines of well, why don't we 382 00:19:11,119 --> 00:19:14,320 Speaker 9: do a one month cease fire in terms of in 383 00:19:14,400 --> 00:19:17,680 Speaker 9: the air and in the sea and on energy attacks. 384 00:19:17,800 --> 00:19:20,560 Speaker 8: Let's let them run with the ball for a little while. 385 00:19:20,680 --> 00:19:22,680 Speaker 4: What we heard from the Prime Minister of the UK 386 00:19:22,800 --> 00:19:27,360 Speaker 4: he hosted twenty allies in London on Sunday, kir Starmer 387 00:19:27,400 --> 00:19:31,280 Speaker 4: and talking about joining with France to step up to 388 00:19:31,359 --> 00:19:34,520 Speaker 4: support Ukraine here and forge a peace plan they could 389 00:19:34,560 --> 00:19:36,359 Speaker 4: offer to Donald Trump. I don't know how receptive he's 390 00:19:36,400 --> 00:19:39,119 Speaker 4: going to be to a peace plan that's coming from Europe. 391 00:19:39,119 --> 00:19:41,639 Speaker 4: But here's Kirre Starmer following the meeting with Zelenski and others. 392 00:19:42,720 --> 00:19:46,359 Speaker 7: We are at a crossroads in history today. This is 393 00:19:46,440 --> 00:19:50,240 Speaker 7: not a moment for more talk. It's time to act. 394 00:19:50,560 --> 00:19:54,040 Speaker 7: The UK is prepared to back this with boots on 395 00:19:54,080 --> 00:19:57,919 Speaker 7: the ground and planes in the air, together with others. 396 00:19:58,400 --> 00:20:00,760 Speaker 7: Europe must do the heavy listing. 397 00:20:02,160 --> 00:20:05,840 Speaker 4: A coalition of the willing, as he describes it, I 398 00:20:05,920 --> 00:20:08,199 Speaker 4: feel like we've seen this movie before. 399 00:20:08,280 --> 00:20:10,359 Speaker 3: How much can they actually do on their own without 400 00:20:10,400 --> 00:20:10,840 Speaker 3: the US. 401 00:20:11,080 --> 00:20:12,919 Speaker 9: Well, at least they could do a great deal in 402 00:20:13,000 --> 00:20:15,399 Speaker 9: terms of just putting troops on the ground. And this 403 00:20:15,520 --> 00:20:18,359 Speaker 9: is actually what the Trump White House wants. He wants 404 00:20:18,400 --> 00:20:20,600 Speaker 9: these types of commitments to step forward. 405 00:20:20,960 --> 00:20:22,680 Speaker 8: But I think everybody. 406 00:20:22,160 --> 00:20:24,000 Speaker 9: Knows that at the end of the day, you would 407 00:20:24,040 --> 00:20:27,480 Speaker 9: still need what the Europeans are calling a US backstop, 408 00:20:27,520 --> 00:20:30,119 Speaker 9: and that basically means that we would help with command 409 00:20:30,200 --> 00:20:34,000 Speaker 9: to control, intelligence, maybe overflight, so it would be a 410 00:20:34,040 --> 00:20:37,520 Speaker 9: more limited role. Trump's definitely not going to put US 411 00:20:37,600 --> 00:20:41,080 Speaker 9: troops on the ground in Ukraine. But if they can 412 00:20:41,200 --> 00:20:44,879 Speaker 9: help with the mission from Afar, maybe that's something that 413 00:20:44,920 --> 00:20:47,720 Speaker 9: Trump could sign up to if it's to get a 414 00:20:47,800 --> 00:20:51,200 Speaker 9: deal in the final analysis. But it's not on brand 415 00:20:51,280 --> 00:20:53,720 Speaker 9: for Trump to agree to this. At this point in 416 00:20:53,760 --> 00:20:57,320 Speaker 9: the negotiations. He's trying to be the mediator, rightly or wrongly, 417 00:20:57,600 --> 00:21:00,320 Speaker 9: and so he's not going to just absolutely tramp on 418 00:21:00,400 --> 00:21:02,280 Speaker 9: what he believes to be a putin redline. 419 00:21:02,520 --> 00:21:05,320 Speaker 2: Well, and when he was asked in the Oval Office 420 00:21:05,320 --> 00:21:07,480 Speaker 2: meeting last week. Whose side he's on or if he 421 00:21:07,520 --> 00:21:09,560 Speaker 2: was in the middle. He says he's for both Ukraine 422 00:21:09,880 --> 00:21:12,440 Speaker 2: and Russia. Truly just sees himself as a middleman here. 423 00:21:12,480 --> 00:21:15,280 Speaker 2: Didn't suggest he's advocating for one side or the other, 424 00:21:15,320 --> 00:21:17,119 Speaker 2: but on the Russian side. How has all of this 425 00:21:17,280 --> 00:21:20,520 Speaker 2: changed the calculation for Vladimir Putin with he's considering what 426 00:21:20,560 --> 00:21:22,560 Speaker 2: concessions he does or does not need to make in 427 00:21:22,600 --> 00:21:23,040 Speaker 2: any deal. 428 00:21:23,200 --> 00:21:24,240 Speaker 8: Well, so I agree. 429 00:21:24,280 --> 00:21:26,880 Speaker 9: I don't think this was done as a calculated way 430 00:21:26,920 --> 00:21:29,800 Speaker 9: to give a gift to the Russians, but that's the outcome. 431 00:21:30,080 --> 00:21:33,479 Speaker 9: In reality, the Russians are loving this. They're able to 432 00:21:33,520 --> 00:21:39,280 Speaker 9: see Ukraine lose ground with the United States, not just substantively, 433 00:21:39,520 --> 00:21:42,280 Speaker 9: but substantively and publicly. 434 00:21:42,760 --> 00:21:43,720 Speaker 8: And so this is. 435 00:21:43,800 --> 00:21:46,960 Speaker 9: Not a great place for Zelensky to be. I feel 436 00:21:46,960 --> 00:21:49,280 Speaker 9: like he needs to say, listen, I am for peace. 437 00:21:49,800 --> 00:21:52,360 Speaker 9: I just want it to be durable, and I regret 438 00:21:52,440 --> 00:21:55,800 Speaker 9: that I've aired all of our differences in the public sphere. 439 00:21:55,880 --> 00:21:58,520 Speaker 9: And let's try to get the minerals deal signed and 440 00:21:58,520 --> 00:22:02,199 Speaker 9: get back on track, and let's put the emphasis on Putin. 441 00:22:02,320 --> 00:22:06,159 Speaker 9: He's the one that's truly recalcitrant. If he gets into 442 00:22:06,240 --> 00:22:10,159 Speaker 9: this and starts to deny Trump elements of what Trump 443 00:22:10,200 --> 00:22:12,479 Speaker 9: wants to be able to advance as part of peace talks, 444 00:22:12,800 --> 00:22:15,160 Speaker 9: then let's see Trump go after Putin for a while 445 00:22:15,160 --> 00:22:16,000 Speaker 9: instead of Zelenski. 446 00:22:16,160 --> 00:22:19,760 Speaker 4: It's your point. The line from the Kremlin is remarkable. 447 00:22:20,000 --> 00:22:23,000 Speaker 4: Quote this is from Kremlin spokesman Dmitri Peskoff. The new 448 00:22:23,040 --> 00:22:28,200 Speaker 4: administration is rapidly changing all foreign policy configurations. This largely 449 00:22:28,240 --> 00:22:29,480 Speaker 4: aligns with our vision. 450 00:22:29,600 --> 00:22:32,639 Speaker 3: Unquote. Is Ronald Reagan spinning in his grave? 451 00:22:33,200 --> 00:22:33,639 Speaker 8: I think so. 452 00:22:34,000 --> 00:22:36,600 Speaker 9: But more importantly, I think a lot of people in 453 00:22:36,640 --> 00:22:41,200 Speaker 9: the Republican Senate are probably very uncomfortable with the way 454 00:22:41,280 --> 00:22:44,159 Speaker 9: this is going down. I think they want to be 455 00:22:44,160 --> 00:22:49,040 Speaker 9: able to argue that, hey, Russia is our obstinate sort 456 00:22:49,080 --> 00:22:51,600 Speaker 9: of opponent, but they don't have any sort of room 457 00:22:51,680 --> 00:22:54,080 Speaker 9: to do that yet because of the way that this 458 00:22:54,320 --> 00:22:56,760 Speaker 9: is going down at the present moment, Which is another 459 00:22:56,800 --> 00:23:00,600 Speaker 9: reason why we need to get past this Zelensky disaster 460 00:23:00,720 --> 00:23:02,800 Speaker 9: from last week and get back to the merits of 461 00:23:02,800 --> 00:23:06,560 Speaker 9: the deal, because I think that the Europeans and Republican 462 00:23:06,680 --> 00:23:08,879 Speaker 9: senators and others need to start saying back to the 463 00:23:08,880 --> 00:23:11,480 Speaker 9: White House I'm glad you're trying to mediate here. We 464 00:23:11,520 --> 00:23:14,520 Speaker 9: want peace also, but let's not give away too much 465 00:23:14,520 --> 00:23:15,200 Speaker 9: to Russia. 466 00:23:15,240 --> 00:23:17,720 Speaker 2: So what's the role a former senator and Secretary of 467 00:23:17,720 --> 00:23:20,560 Speaker 2: State Marco Rubio or the National Security Advisor Mike Waltz, 468 00:23:20,560 --> 00:23:23,359 Speaker 2: for example, in all of this? Can they provide that 469 00:23:23,520 --> 00:23:25,520 Speaker 2: check to what Trump's impulses might be right now? 470 00:23:25,520 --> 00:23:26,600 Speaker 10: Around your well? 471 00:23:26,680 --> 00:23:28,399 Speaker 8: I think they can somewhat. 472 00:23:28,440 --> 00:23:31,000 Speaker 9: But what I've been sort of arguing to people of 473 00:23:31,119 --> 00:23:34,440 Speaker 9: late is that Donald Trump is making all the decisions 474 00:23:34,480 --> 00:23:37,120 Speaker 9: in his administration. It may not always be this way 475 00:23:37,240 --> 00:23:39,600 Speaker 9: the way that the presidency may catch up. There may 476 00:23:39,600 --> 00:23:42,479 Speaker 9: be other events that'll have to focus on. But Trump 477 00:23:42,520 --> 00:23:46,720 Speaker 9: is deciding personnel matters, He's deep into the doge. He's 478 00:23:46,880 --> 00:23:51,320 Speaker 9: very much deciding, if not all of the tariff decisions, 479 00:23:51,359 --> 00:23:56,040 Speaker 9: the vast majority of them. So Trump is totally invested 480 00:23:56,080 --> 00:23:59,359 Speaker 9: in his presidency, making every decision. So I haven't seen 481 00:23:59,480 --> 00:24:03,680 Speaker 9: a lot of room for cabinet government in areas where 482 00:24:03,680 --> 00:24:06,359 Speaker 9: Trump is plugged in, and in foreign affairs and on 483 00:24:06,440 --> 00:24:09,639 Speaker 9: this war, he is basically very plugged in. 484 00:24:09,720 --> 00:24:12,479 Speaker 4: What will be his tone is posture on Ukraine tomorrow night, 485 00:24:12,480 --> 00:24:15,600 Speaker 4: when he speaks to a joint Session of Congress, remembering 486 00:24:16,119 --> 00:24:20,520 Speaker 4: the Ukrainian flags that lined Pennsylvania Avenue going to the 487 00:24:20,560 --> 00:24:23,480 Speaker 4: Capital of the Knight, that Zelensky also addressed a joint 488 00:24:23,480 --> 00:24:26,080 Speaker 4: session of Congress, or when he joined the First Lady 489 00:24:26,119 --> 00:24:28,280 Speaker 4: in the gallery as a guest of honor of the President. 490 00:24:28,280 --> 00:24:30,399 Speaker 4: It's going to be a very, I presume, different feel. 491 00:24:30,720 --> 00:24:32,400 Speaker 9: It is going to be a different feel. I think 492 00:24:32,440 --> 00:24:36,560 Speaker 9: he's going to fault Zelensky for not being ready to 493 00:24:36,680 --> 00:24:39,840 Speaker 9: enter into piece to a piece equation. I think that's 494 00:24:39,880 --> 00:24:43,200 Speaker 9: going to be the overriding message when Trump at his core, 495 00:24:43,359 --> 00:24:45,439 Speaker 9: for all we say about Trump, really just wants to 496 00:24:45,560 --> 00:24:49,200 Speaker 9: end the killing. He doesn't subscribe to some international relations 497 00:24:49,280 --> 00:24:53,440 Speaker 9: theory the different folks in Washington have subscribed to. He 498 00:24:53,480 --> 00:24:56,040 Speaker 9: wants to stop the killing as soon as possible. He 499 00:24:56,119 --> 00:24:59,560 Speaker 9: sees a path in that direction, and right now Zelensky 500 00:24:59,600 --> 00:25:02,320 Speaker 9: looks like he's in the way and Putin's hidden, And 501 00:25:02,359 --> 00:25:04,600 Speaker 9: so I think Zelensky's going to continue to be faulted 502 00:25:04,640 --> 00:25:05,920 Speaker 9: until he cleans everything up. 503 00:25:06,320 --> 00:25:08,760 Speaker 2: So with things as they stand now, how soon do 504 00:25:08,840 --> 00:25:11,120 Speaker 2: you think, realistically is possible. 505 00:25:11,280 --> 00:25:14,040 Speaker 9: For I don't think it's I would have hoped that 506 00:25:14,119 --> 00:25:17,080 Speaker 9: Zelensky would have said something over the weekend and had 507 00:25:17,160 --> 00:25:18,399 Speaker 9: done something more quickly. 508 00:25:18,880 --> 00:25:19,760 Speaker 8: But if we can. 509 00:25:19,640 --> 00:25:22,359 Speaker 9: Start reacting maybe to the ideas that the Europeans are 510 00:25:22,359 --> 00:25:25,600 Speaker 9: putting on the table, the cease fire in the air 511 00:25:25,640 --> 00:25:28,199 Speaker 9: and in the sea, and begin to talk through some 512 00:25:28,280 --> 00:25:32,760 Speaker 9: different details, maybe that eventually changes the dynamics, because the 513 00:25:32,760 --> 00:25:35,040 Speaker 9: one we're in right now is not a good. 514 00:25:34,840 --> 00:25:37,159 Speaker 2: One, all right, Michael Allen, Great to see you, as 515 00:25:37,160 --> 00:25:39,679 Speaker 2: always here in our Washington, d C. Studio. He's Managing 516 00:25:39,720 --> 00:25:43,000 Speaker 2: director of Beacon Global Strategies, also former Special Assistant to 517 00:25:43,040 --> 00:25:45,880 Speaker 2: President George W. Bush in the national security sector. Here 518 00:25:45,880 --> 00:25:47,560 Speaker 2: with us on Balance of Power. 519 00:25:49,800 --> 00:25:53,280 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcasts. Catch 520 00:25:53,359 --> 00:25:56,160 Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon and five pm. He's durn 521 00:25:56,320 --> 00:25:59,720 Speaker 1: on Apple, Cockley and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app, 522 00:26:00,000 --> 00:26:03,399 Speaker 1: and also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship 523 00:26:03,440 --> 00:26:07,320 Speaker 1: New York station Just Say Alexa played Bloomberg eleven thirty. 524 00:26:08,800 --> 00:26:11,560 Speaker 4: We're talking politics here on a big week in Washington. 525 00:26:11,600 --> 00:26:14,480 Speaker 4: Great to have you with us on Bloomberg Radio on 526 00:26:14,520 --> 00:26:17,040 Speaker 4: the satellite radio channel one twenty one and. 527 00:26:16,920 --> 00:26:19,080 Speaker 3: On YouTube search Bloomberg Business News Live. 528 00:26:19,080 --> 00:26:21,040 Speaker 4: You can get to hang out with our signature panel 529 00:26:21,080 --> 00:26:22,840 Speaker 4: and just a moment, Rick and Jeanie will be in 530 00:26:23,160 --> 00:26:25,240 Speaker 4: as we set things up for the super Bowl of 531 00:26:25,320 --> 00:26:28,680 Speaker 4: politics tomorrow night, the big speech to a joint Session 532 00:26:28,720 --> 00:26:30,880 Speaker 4: of Congress, what would in any other year be called 533 00:26:30,920 --> 00:26:33,560 Speaker 4: a State of the Union. And as we find the 534 00:26:33,600 --> 00:26:38,320 Speaker 4: headline at Bloomberg Government, a speech and deadline set up 535 00:26:39,080 --> 00:26:44,119 Speaker 4: March powder keg. Yeah, welcome to March. I hope you 536 00:26:44,200 --> 00:26:44,879 Speaker 4: enjoyed the weekend. 537 00:26:44,880 --> 00:26:47,960 Speaker 3: I got some rest because Beegov is right. 538 00:26:48,119 --> 00:26:51,480 Speaker 4: March offers two new windows into how Democrats and Republicans 539 00:26:51,880 --> 00:26:55,640 Speaker 4: are dealing with the new Trump administration and what Jonathan 540 00:26:55,680 --> 00:27:00,639 Speaker 4: Tomory calls Trump's bulldozer style presidency one of the national 541 00:27:00,680 --> 00:27:04,400 Speaker 4: spotlight one behind closed doors. I already mentioned tomorrow night, 542 00:27:04,560 --> 00:27:07,840 Speaker 4: the big spectacle, Trump's speech joint Session of Congress. We 543 00:27:07,880 --> 00:27:10,320 Speaker 4: will all be together here for special coverage starting at 544 00:27:10,359 --> 00:27:11,280 Speaker 4: eight pm Eastern time. 545 00:27:11,320 --> 00:27:12,600 Speaker 3: I hope you're with us. 546 00:27:13,359 --> 00:27:18,240 Speaker 4: Then it's onto government funding. Yes, the key dividing line 547 00:27:18,600 --> 00:27:21,840 Speaker 4: centering on the sharp cuts that Donald Trump and Elon 548 00:27:21,960 --> 00:27:28,000 Speaker 4: Musk have imposed. This is why Democrats are not feeling 549 00:27:28,280 --> 00:27:31,280 Speaker 4: like playing along at the moment with a continuing resolution 550 00:27:31,359 --> 00:27:32,800 Speaker 4: that would go through the end of the fiscal year 551 00:27:32,880 --> 00:27:36,359 Speaker 4: straight through September. Pentagon hawks on a Love that Freedom 552 00:27:36,400 --> 00:27:38,440 Speaker 4: caucus at all of it too. 553 00:27:39,600 --> 00:27:40,400 Speaker 3: And we've got a new. 554 00:27:40,320 --> 00:27:42,879 Speaker 4: Poll rolled out Sunday Morning CBS News You Go of 555 00:27:43,119 --> 00:27:46,200 Speaker 4: eighty percent of adults think Donald Trump should be focused 556 00:27:46,400 --> 00:27:50,679 Speaker 4: on the economy and inflation. Only twenty nine and thirty 557 00:27:50,680 --> 00:27:55,960 Speaker 4: six percent believe he is prioritizing these issues respectively. So 558 00:27:56,040 --> 00:27:58,560 Speaker 4: what's the point tomorrow night? It's going to be a big, 559 00:27:58,600 --> 00:28:01,199 Speaker 4: long speech, a big performance, But what are the messages 560 00:28:01,880 --> 00:28:05,600 Speaker 4: that Donald Trump actually needs to land Having spent a 561 00:28:05,640 --> 00:28:08,800 Speaker 4: lot of time talking about tariffs and geopolitics the last 562 00:28:08,840 --> 00:28:11,520 Speaker 4: couple of weeks, our messaging experts are with us, and 563 00:28:11,560 --> 00:28:14,280 Speaker 4: by that I mean our signature political panel. Genie Schanzeno 564 00:28:14,359 --> 00:28:18,439 Speaker 4: was here, Bloomberg Politics contributor, Democratic analyst, and political science 565 00:28:18,440 --> 00:28:22,080 Speaker 4: professor at Iona University. And there's Rick Davis, a Republican strategist, 566 00:28:22,080 --> 00:28:25,480 Speaker 4: Bloomberg Politics contributor and partner at Stone Court Capital. 567 00:28:25,840 --> 00:28:28,600 Speaker 3: Rick, what is the job for Donald Trump tomorrow night? 568 00:28:28,600 --> 00:28:30,000 Speaker 4: He's going to have to get a message that you 569 00:28:30,000 --> 00:28:31,520 Speaker 4: can fit on a bumper sticker somewhere. 570 00:28:31,520 --> 00:28:32,080 Speaker 3: What should it be? 571 00:28:33,280 --> 00:28:37,320 Speaker 10: Well, his messages don't come bumper sticker already. In fact, 572 00:28:37,400 --> 00:28:39,680 Speaker 10: his speeches tend to go well over an hour, tough 573 00:28:39,680 --> 00:28:43,120 Speaker 10: to fit on a bumper sticker, And I anticipate he's 574 00:28:43,160 --> 00:28:45,240 Speaker 10: going to use all the time that he needs to. 575 00:28:46,680 --> 00:28:47,440 Speaker 8: Make this speech. 576 00:28:47,840 --> 00:28:50,040 Speaker 10: The reality is in the past, when he was president, 577 00:28:50,040 --> 00:28:52,200 Speaker 10: we have a lot to learn from. He was spending 578 00:28:52,240 --> 00:28:55,000 Speaker 10: a lot of time on these kinds of speeches, trying 579 00:28:55,000 --> 00:28:57,360 Speaker 10: to get Congress to do what he wants him to do. Right, 580 00:28:57,440 --> 00:29:00,000 Speaker 10: And for the first two years it was his agenda, 581 00:29:00,160 --> 00:29:02,719 Speaker 10: I want, you know my text cuts passed, and then 582 00:29:02,760 --> 00:29:04,800 Speaker 10: he had a victory lap over his tax cuts getting 583 00:29:04,840 --> 00:29:06,480 Speaker 10: passed in his speech. And then in the second two 584 00:29:06,560 --> 00:29:09,440 Speaker 10: years he had Democrat control and it was you know, 585 00:29:09,600 --> 00:29:11,800 Speaker 10: a bunch of socialists, and you need to do what. 586 00:29:11,720 --> 00:29:12,360 Speaker 8: I tell you to do. 587 00:29:13,640 --> 00:29:16,000 Speaker 10: I don't think he thinks he needs Congress anymore. I 588 00:29:16,000 --> 00:29:17,600 Speaker 10: think this speech is going to be all about what 589 00:29:17,680 --> 00:29:21,000 Speaker 10: he's doing as president. I don't think he really thinks 590 00:29:21,040 --> 00:29:25,120 Speaker 10: Congress is a player. And I'm I'm leveling tariffs, I'm 591 00:29:25,280 --> 00:29:27,920 Speaker 10: creating all kinds of economic activity. Look at all these 592 00:29:27,960 --> 00:29:31,520 Speaker 10: commitments I'm getting from Apple and others to you know, 593 00:29:31,640 --> 00:29:35,200 Speaker 10: build off our technical infrastructure. I think it's going to 594 00:29:35,240 --> 00:29:38,680 Speaker 10: be more what he's doing for the country than what 595 00:29:38,800 --> 00:29:40,640 Speaker 10: he needs Congress to do for him. 596 00:29:41,680 --> 00:29:45,800 Speaker 4: Amazing, Genie, what's your thought on tomorrow night here? Does 597 00:29:45,840 --> 00:29:49,160 Speaker 4: he need to make an announcement that coincides with the 598 00:29:49,240 --> 00:29:51,520 Speaker 4: numbers we're talking about here? Does he need to get 599 00:29:51,840 --> 00:29:54,920 Speaker 4: more focused on the issue of inflation or is it 600 00:29:54,960 --> 00:29:57,320 Speaker 4: going to sound like the most recent speech we heard 601 00:29:57,320 --> 00:29:58,120 Speaker 4: from Donald Trump. 602 00:29:59,440 --> 00:30:02,280 Speaker 6: Yeah, it's always hard to predict with Donald Trump, which 603 00:30:02,360 --> 00:30:04,480 Speaker 6: is what is going to make it fascinating. But I 604 00:30:04,520 --> 00:30:09,440 Speaker 6: do think that to your discussion of that CBSU Gov poll, 605 00:30:09,520 --> 00:30:12,520 Speaker 6: we saw similar results from a CNN and an NPR 606 00:30:12,600 --> 00:30:14,400 Speaker 6: poll that also came out in the last twenty four 607 00:30:14,440 --> 00:30:17,680 Speaker 6: to forty eight hours, and just the signs of the 608 00:30:17,720 --> 00:30:22,240 Speaker 6: economy and consumer confidence, there are signs of sort of 609 00:30:22,400 --> 00:30:26,560 Speaker 6: blinking yellow going into red. Whether you're looking at public 610 00:30:26,600 --> 00:30:30,560 Speaker 6: opinion on the Trump presidency arguably only six weeks in, 611 00:30:30,680 --> 00:30:34,400 Speaker 6: so it's still early, and also the economy itself, and 612 00:30:34,440 --> 00:30:36,320 Speaker 6: I think Donald Trump and his team are going to 613 00:30:36,400 --> 00:30:39,880 Speaker 6: have to take those things very seriously. There is a 614 00:30:40,000 --> 00:30:43,480 Speaker 6: danger not just with the Trump administration but all presidents. 615 00:30:43,800 --> 00:30:47,560 Speaker 6: They overread mandates. And the reality is he did win 616 00:30:47,640 --> 00:30:50,560 Speaker 6: the popular vote and he won the electoral college, but 617 00:30:50,640 --> 00:30:54,360 Speaker 6: he didn't run away with it. He lost Senate seats 618 00:30:54,360 --> 00:30:57,960 Speaker 6: in some key states that Republicans should have won. And 619 00:30:58,080 --> 00:31:00,800 Speaker 6: so what did the American public elected to do? They 620 00:31:00,840 --> 00:31:04,640 Speaker 6: elected him to make them feel better about the economy. 621 00:31:04,880 --> 00:31:08,120 Speaker 6: We all remember Joe Biden's economy. The numbers weren't bad, 622 00:31:08,160 --> 00:31:11,400 Speaker 6: but people weren't feeling it. We elected Donald Trump he 623 00:31:11,520 --> 00:31:13,760 Speaker 6: was gonna make us feel better. You look at those 624 00:31:13,800 --> 00:31:16,720 Speaker 6: polls most taken before the debacle in the White House 625 00:31:16,720 --> 00:31:19,720 Speaker 6: on Friday, and people aren't feeling better, and by large 626 00:31:19,800 --> 00:31:22,840 Speaker 6: numbers are saying he's not focused on what we elected 627 00:31:22,920 --> 00:31:25,000 Speaker 6: him to do. And so that's what I think he 628 00:31:25,200 --> 00:31:28,080 Speaker 6: should talk about. He's not going to listen to me, though, Joe, 629 00:31:28,120 --> 00:31:30,400 Speaker 6: so who knows what he talks about. But that's what 630 00:31:30,520 --> 00:31:32,320 Speaker 6: I think he needs to talk about. 631 00:31:33,280 --> 00:31:34,720 Speaker 4: Well, I'll be curious to hear from both of you 632 00:31:35,240 --> 00:31:37,680 Speaker 4: on the way Democrats are handling this. I guess Senator 633 00:31:37,720 --> 00:31:41,320 Speaker 4: Chris Murphy is suggesting that he might actually skip the speech, 634 00:31:41,320 --> 00:31:44,800 Speaker 4: and there could be some boycotting, but there's been more 635 00:31:44,800 --> 00:31:48,400 Speaker 4: of an effort in the party to bring guests who 636 00:31:48,440 --> 00:31:51,560 Speaker 4: have been affected by Trump policies. So get ready to 637 00:31:51,560 --> 00:31:54,320 Speaker 4: see a lot of laid off federal workers showing up 638 00:31:54,360 --> 00:31:58,040 Speaker 4: with lawmakers and doing interviews. Here Elizabeth Warren just right 639 00:31:58,080 --> 00:31:59,720 Speaker 4: in front of me. I just popped into my email 640 00:31:59,760 --> 00:32:02,840 Speaker 4: by announced to she's going to be bringing Doug Kowaluski 641 00:32:02,880 --> 00:32:07,120 Speaker 4: of Wellesley will be there, a former National Science Foundation employee. Rick, 642 00:32:07,240 --> 00:32:09,080 Speaker 4: Is this a good strategy? Does anybody care? 643 00:32:10,400 --> 00:32:12,280 Speaker 10: You know, it's hard to tell whether or not the 644 00:32:12,320 --> 00:32:15,680 Speaker 10: public is really feeling the pinch on these job losses. 645 00:32:16,240 --> 00:32:18,760 Speaker 10: You know, the pulling is a little bit all around. 646 00:32:19,680 --> 00:32:22,600 Speaker 10: I think nine times out of ten when you hear 647 00:32:22,760 --> 00:32:26,640 Speaker 10: stories about individuals who are particularly affected by this, I 648 00:32:26,720 --> 00:32:29,920 Speaker 10: think it has the potential for the public to get aroused. 649 00:32:29,960 --> 00:32:33,280 Speaker 10: But I think if it's just thousands of people fired 650 00:32:33,320 --> 00:32:37,880 Speaker 10: today through DOGE, I think there's an attitude that the 651 00:32:37,920 --> 00:32:42,080 Speaker 10: government's too big. It's part of what fueled Trump's victory 652 00:32:42,120 --> 00:32:45,360 Speaker 10: and that he's finally doing something about it. And unless 653 00:32:45,400 --> 00:32:49,000 Speaker 10: it's specific to an individual, it's kind of hard to 654 00:32:49,000 --> 00:32:51,400 Speaker 10: get your head around thousands of people being fired at 655 00:32:51,440 --> 00:32:55,200 Speaker 10: any given time. So I do think the democratic strategy 656 00:32:55,240 --> 00:32:58,000 Speaker 10: of sort of identifying stories and trying to get those 657 00:32:58,000 --> 00:33:01,920 Speaker 10: stories out may be worthwhile, but at the end of 658 00:33:01,960 --> 00:33:05,040 Speaker 10: the day, the momentum is all on Trump side. I mean, 659 00:33:05,400 --> 00:33:08,080 Speaker 10: what's creating of activity is going to be hard to 660 00:33:08,080 --> 00:33:10,520 Speaker 10: fit into one night's speech, right, I mean, we've never 661 00:33:10,560 --> 00:33:13,480 Speaker 10: had a president in my time get this much done 662 00:33:13,480 --> 00:33:15,280 Speaker 10: in this short period of time, and now. 663 00:33:15,080 --> 00:33:16,440 Speaker 3: He's going to talk all about it. 664 00:33:16,520 --> 00:33:18,120 Speaker 8: Well, we're going to be in for a long night. 665 00:33:19,640 --> 00:33:23,160 Speaker 4: There's a New York Times story that you probably saw today, Genie. 666 00:33:23,200 --> 00:33:24,960 Speaker 4: By the way, the White House did react to the 667 00:33:25,040 --> 00:33:28,440 Speaker 4: Washington Post story on Democrats bringing guests in the form 668 00:33:28,480 --> 00:33:32,680 Speaker 4: of laid off federal workers. Quote Democrats exploiting the American 669 00:33:32,720 --> 00:33:35,600 Speaker 4: people for political points, is what the White House said. 670 00:33:35,600 --> 00:33:37,600 Speaker 4: And you can weigh in on that if you want, Genie. 671 00:33:37,600 --> 00:33:39,440 Speaker 4: The fact the matter is you start talking about what 672 00:33:39,560 --> 00:33:41,840 Speaker 4: the Doge has accomplished, and I'm sure a lot of 673 00:33:41,840 --> 00:33:44,400 Speaker 4: the speech will be aimed at that. The group claiming 674 00:33:44,400 --> 00:33:48,080 Speaker 4: credit for canceling procurement agreements that had been completed years earlier. 675 00:33:48,840 --> 00:33:53,560 Speaker 4: Another in a string of public errors on its receipts website, 676 00:33:53,600 --> 00:33:56,480 Speaker 4: they start kind of promoting big cuts, only to find 677 00:33:56,480 --> 00:34:00,000 Speaker 4: out in this case that there was a Coastguard contract 678 00:34:00,080 --> 00:34:05,480 Speaker 4: track signed in the Bush George W. Bush administration, and 679 00:34:05,520 --> 00:34:10,040 Speaker 4: it was completed by two thousand and five, twenty years past, 680 00:34:10,200 --> 00:34:13,279 Speaker 4: and we're still talking about this. Does Donald Trump have 681 00:34:13,480 --> 00:34:15,640 Speaker 4: enough to actually take credit for? 682 00:34:17,440 --> 00:34:20,840 Speaker 6: You know, I think the reality is is the cutting 683 00:34:20,880 --> 00:34:24,279 Speaker 6: the federal government cleaning it up is popular. But what 684 00:34:24,440 --> 00:34:28,960 Speaker 6: is happening now is a really ill conceived execution of 685 00:34:29,000 --> 00:34:32,319 Speaker 6: a very popular mandate, and that will catch up with them. 686 00:34:32,360 --> 00:34:34,480 Speaker 6: I mean, that's what the New York Times story was about, 687 00:34:34,840 --> 00:34:38,120 Speaker 6: you know, Elon Musk. And big question for tomorrow night, Joe, 688 00:34:38,160 --> 00:34:42,760 Speaker 6: does Elon Musk come They're demanding that four time president 689 00:34:42,800 --> 00:34:44,759 Speaker 6: wear a suit. I'd like to see a demand that 690 00:34:44,800 --> 00:34:47,040 Speaker 6: Elon Musk wear one. If that's the case. Does he 691 00:34:47,520 --> 00:34:50,719 Speaker 6: get that pushback? Is he sitting with the first Lady? 692 00:34:50,760 --> 00:34:53,840 Speaker 6: All kinds of questions about Elon Musk? And he did rightly. 693 00:34:53,920 --> 00:34:56,120 Speaker 6: So we're going to make a lot of mistakes during 694 00:34:56,160 --> 00:34:59,440 Speaker 6: that cabinet meeting, and boy have they. No, there aren't 695 00:34:59,520 --> 00:35:02,480 Speaker 6: tens of millions of people dead. You know, you're not 696 00:35:02,520 --> 00:35:05,160 Speaker 6: going to be able to save eight billion dollars on 697 00:35:05,200 --> 00:35:08,800 Speaker 6: some of these contracts. We didn't send fifty million dollars 698 00:35:08,840 --> 00:35:11,480 Speaker 6: worth of condoms. You know, all of this they have 699 00:35:11,600 --> 00:35:14,200 Speaker 6: had to walk back, and that just speaks to the fact, 700 00:35:14,200 --> 00:35:17,800 Speaker 6: as does the New York Times piece that execution matters. 701 00:35:18,200 --> 00:35:21,880 Speaker 6: And I think what Democrats need to do, beyond bringing 702 00:35:21,960 --> 00:35:25,839 Speaker 6: people personally impacted by these cuts to the speech, is 703 00:35:25,880 --> 00:35:29,120 Speaker 6: they need to talk about the reality of the numbers. 704 00:35:29,640 --> 00:35:34,080 Speaker 6: What even if Elon Musk is wildly popular, none of 705 00:35:34,120 --> 00:35:38,400 Speaker 6: this matters with a seven trillion dollar spend and sixty 706 00:35:38,440 --> 00:35:42,440 Speaker 6: percent of that going to mandatory programs like Social Security, Medicare, 707 00:35:42,440 --> 00:35:46,840 Speaker 6: and Medicaid, which they've taken off the cuts list. So 708 00:35:47,480 --> 00:35:51,680 Speaker 6: the reality is their numbers don't add up. They never 709 00:35:51,880 --> 00:35:55,279 Speaker 6: have and until they do, they can talk about this 710 00:35:55,400 --> 00:35:58,600 Speaker 6: all they want, but at some point the American people 711 00:35:58,640 --> 00:36:00,960 Speaker 6: are going to say, wait a minute. Causing people a 712 00:36:01,000 --> 00:36:04,520 Speaker 6: lot of pain for very little gain, and that is 713 00:36:04,560 --> 00:36:07,279 Speaker 6: a problem, and that's what the Democrats really need to 714 00:36:07,320 --> 00:36:07,759 Speaker 6: focus on. 715 00:36:08,920 --> 00:36:09,080 Speaker 10: Rick. 716 00:36:09,160 --> 00:36:11,200 Speaker 4: What does Donald Trump do with Elon Musk tomorrow? I 717 00:36:11,239 --> 00:36:13,000 Speaker 4: do they give him a special seat like up near 718 00:36:13,080 --> 00:36:14,959 Speaker 4: the Supreme Court? I do maybe you get a couple 719 00:36:14,960 --> 00:36:17,919 Speaker 4: of the doge bros. They get their own bench set 720 00:36:18,000 --> 00:36:20,520 Speaker 4: up there. Does he go as a guest of a lawmaker. 721 00:36:20,560 --> 00:36:21,280 Speaker 3: What do you expect? 722 00:36:22,760 --> 00:36:26,000 Speaker 10: Yeah, normally, you know, the stories that the President talk 723 00:36:26,040 --> 00:36:29,080 Speaker 10: about are sitting up with the first Lady in the balcony. 724 00:36:29,160 --> 00:36:31,360 Speaker 10: I can't see Elon Musk in the balcony. 725 00:36:32,200 --> 00:36:32,960 Speaker 3: No, but he's not. 726 00:36:32,960 --> 00:36:36,440 Speaker 10: An official, he's an advisor. I mean, they make pains 727 00:36:36,440 --> 00:36:39,040 Speaker 10: to try and twist themselves into pretzels to figure out 728 00:36:39,040 --> 00:36:42,719 Speaker 10: what Elon Musk is. Uh, And so yeah, it'll be 729 00:36:42,760 --> 00:36:45,879 Speaker 10: interesting to see physically what happens to Elon Musk. I mean, 730 00:36:46,000 --> 00:36:50,479 Speaker 10: for if we really, you know, transpose his power, he'd 731 00:36:50,520 --> 00:36:53,640 Speaker 10: have a third seat sitting behind you know, Donald Trump, 732 00:36:53,680 --> 00:36:56,400 Speaker 10: with the speaker and the majority of leader of the Senate. 733 00:36:56,480 --> 00:36:58,879 Speaker 10: I mean, it's it's going to be kind of an 734 00:36:58,880 --> 00:37:02,359 Speaker 10: interesting side show. But the reality is, I'm sure he'll 735 00:37:02,360 --> 00:37:04,440 Speaker 10: talk a lot about it because that is where the 736 00:37:04,480 --> 00:37:07,480 Speaker 10: action is right now in the Trump administration. Things are happening, 737 00:37:08,080 --> 00:37:11,440 Speaker 10: Elon's making moves. Very hard for Democrats to sort of 738 00:37:11,520 --> 00:37:15,120 Speaker 10: figure out how to juxtapose it. I think that what 739 00:37:15,280 --> 00:37:17,640 Speaker 10: Genie was just talking about is ultimately the problem. I 740 00:37:17,640 --> 00:37:20,920 Speaker 10: don't think anybody's going to really get excited about it 741 00:37:21,360 --> 00:37:24,040 Speaker 10: from a popular point of view until they start calling 742 00:37:24,080 --> 00:37:26,279 Speaker 10: the VA and don't get their calls back, or they 743 00:37:26,320 --> 00:37:28,880 Speaker 10: can't get an appointment for an MRI at a hospital. 744 00:37:28,880 --> 00:37:31,880 Speaker 8: I mean, like there are going to be net effects 745 00:37:31,880 --> 00:37:32,080 Speaker 8: of this. 746 00:37:32,480 --> 00:37:35,879 Speaker 10: Maybe we do have a bloated government and maybe none 747 00:37:35,920 --> 00:37:38,560 Speaker 10: of these firings make that bit of difference, but if 748 00:37:38,600 --> 00:37:41,160 Speaker 10: they do, that's when people will start to react. 749 00:37:42,280 --> 00:37:46,560 Speaker 4: Genie, Producer James's just designated survivor Elon Musk. 750 00:37:46,680 --> 00:37:47,840 Speaker 3: Maybe we don't see. 751 00:37:47,640 --> 00:37:50,319 Speaker 4: Him at all tomorrow night because he's holed up in 752 00:37:50,360 --> 00:37:54,280 Speaker 4: an undisclosed location. I've only got a minute left, Genie. 753 00:37:54,800 --> 00:37:57,239 Speaker 4: Senator Slotkin's got a tough job. It's like the worst 754 00:37:57,320 --> 00:37:59,279 Speaker 4: job in the world doing the response, no matter which 755 00:37:59,280 --> 00:37:59,759 Speaker 4: party you're in. 756 00:38:00,000 --> 00:38:01,120 Speaker 3: Does she make it work. 757 00:38:01,360 --> 00:38:03,880 Speaker 4: Tomorrow night and not end up being something we're talking 758 00:38:03,880 --> 00:38:05,120 Speaker 4: about as a fail the next day? 759 00:38:06,000 --> 00:38:09,120 Speaker 6: Yeah? Please, James, can we have Keefer Sutherland be the 760 00:38:09,160 --> 00:38:13,279 Speaker 6: designated survivor? That's what we'd all like to see. You know, 761 00:38:13,840 --> 00:38:16,080 Speaker 6: certainly we don't see her in a kitchen. We know 762 00:38:16,160 --> 00:38:18,440 Speaker 6: that we don't see her reaching for a lot of water. 763 00:38:18,560 --> 00:38:21,520 Speaker 6: It is a very tough speech. She is really really 764 00:38:21,560 --> 00:38:24,920 Speaker 6: well well situated to give it. This is somebody with 765 00:38:25,000 --> 00:38:28,560 Speaker 6: a national security background. She is from a swing state. 766 00:38:28,719 --> 00:38:31,400 Speaker 6: She is you know, popular among moderates. You know, I 767 00:38:31,440 --> 00:38:33,319 Speaker 6: think she is a very good shot. But it is 768 00:38:33,360 --> 00:38:36,960 Speaker 6: a tough gig either way around. But yeah, bring Keifer 769 00:38:37,040 --> 00:38:39,960 Speaker 6: Sutherland back please, all right, I. 770 00:38:39,880 --> 00:38:41,760 Speaker 3: Think we've got a lot done here in this conversation. 771 00:38:41,880 --> 00:38:44,480 Speaker 4: Jeanie Shanzano and Rick Davis ready to play on a Monday. 772 00:38:44,640 --> 00:38:50,480 Speaker 3: This is Kingbery. Thanks for listening to the Balance of 773 00:38:50,560 --> 00:38:51,520 Speaker 3: Power podcast. 774 00:38:52,120 --> 00:38:55,239 Speaker 4: Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already, Apple, Spotify, 775 00:38:55,360 --> 00:38:57,919 Speaker 4: or wherever you get your podcasts, and you can find 776 00:38:58,000 --> 00:39:00,760 Speaker 4: us live every weekday from Washington, DC, see at noontime 777 00:39:00,880 --> 00:39:02,840 Speaker 4: Eastern at Bloomberg dot com.