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Speaker 1: Well, joining me now to talk a little bit about

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Speaker 1: the space race and maybe a little bit of politics

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Speaker 1: behind our space policy is Eric Berger of Ours Technica.

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Speaker 1: He's been a space and weather and reporter for decades.

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Speaker 2: Houston Chronicle back in the day.

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Speaker 1: He's got a degree in astronomy and a master's in journalism,

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Speaker 1: and he's a certified meteorologist, but he writes quite a

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Speaker 1: bit these days on the privatization of space policy.

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Speaker 2: You name it. Eric, Welcome to the podcast.

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Speaker 3: Thanks very much, Chuck. Great to be here.

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Speaker 1: Hopefully I said enough of your resume there. Do you

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Speaker 1: feel like I covered it all? Anything I miss?

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Speaker 3: I like space and I like to write about it.

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Speaker 3: So that's about all you need to know.

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Speaker 1: Excellent, Well, I do too, I just don't know as

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Speaker 1: much and I always want to know more. But what

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Speaker 1: triggered me wanting to book you was a report you

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Speaker 1: did in about mid August where it was we're essentially

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Speaker 1: China's on track to beat us back to the moon.

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Speaker 1: And it felt almost like the culmination of the pivot

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Speaker 1: that I think Elon Musk convinced Trump of, which is

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Speaker 1: move away from the Moon and move towards Mars Am.

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Speaker 3: I oversimplifying it, I mean somewhat. Yeah, it's a pretty

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Speaker 3: complicated story. But the bottom line is that China has decided,

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Speaker 3: for geopolitical reasons, much like the United States did in

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Speaker 3: the nineteen sixties, that demonstrating a lunar landing would be

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Speaker 3: really important to bolstering their credibility as you know, a

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Speaker 3: superpower at least on par with the United States, if

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Speaker 3: not exceeding it. And so there has been set up

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Speaker 3: this so called space race between the United States and China,

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Speaker 3: and the US has played along our space leaders, our

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Speaker 3: political leaders have kind of played along into it, such

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Speaker 3: as now we're in this competition to put humans on

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Speaker 3: the moon and you know, buyer before the end of

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Speaker 3: this decade. And at this point China seems to be

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Speaker 3: pulled have pulled ahead in terms of the hardware and planning.

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Speaker 3: It has. Look.

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Speaker 1: I was down at Kennedy's Space Center in Theory to

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Speaker 1: interview Bill Nelson. This is back when I was at

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Speaker 1: Meet the Press before the Artemist launch, and of course

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Speaker 1: we set up the interview and finish the interview, and

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Speaker 1: the Artemist launch gets postponed. But it is it did

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Speaker 1: seem to be more of a priority is it Is

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Speaker 1: it less of a priority now on the NASA side

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Speaker 1: of things when it comes to Artemis and comes to

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Speaker 1: getting back to the Moon.

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Speaker 3: No, it's still the same. I mean, they're still pursuing

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Speaker 3: the Artomist program. We're gonna have the Artomist two launch

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Speaker 3: probably next February or March, with with actual humans going

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Speaker 3: around the Moon. The problem is that there's a huge

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Speaker 3: leap from the Artemist one and two missions to Artemist three,

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Speaker 3: which is actually the Lunar landing. And you know, Nelson,

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Speaker 3: who I liked and obviously you know, was qualified for

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Speaker 3: the position as NASA administer, they didn't ever really tell

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Speaker 3: the whole truth about the complexity of the Artomist program,

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Speaker 3: the challenges that NASA was having, and you don't really

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Speaker 3: hear that truth from the new appointee to lead NASA,

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Speaker 3: Sean Duffy. And the reality is that that that we

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Speaker 3: just are not developing our program quickly enough to match

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Speaker 3: what China's doing.

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Speaker 1: They're always there's a there's a geographical location that they

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Speaker 1: want to get to, and so do we want to

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Speaker 1: get to? And so do we know where the Chinese

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Speaker 1: want to go on the Moon? And are we be

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Speaker 1: concerned that if they get there, essentially they're going to

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Speaker 1: claim it.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, so China and both China United States are interested

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Speaker 3: in the soft Pole of the Moon. That's where it

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Speaker 3: believed that most of the water ice exists in these

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Speaker 3: permanently shadowed craters. It's not clear whether the first Chinese

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Speaker 3: human landings is going to take place at the soft Pole.

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Speaker 3: I suspect since it's easier to land in the equatorial

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Speaker 3: regions of the Moon, right, they won't go to the poles.

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Speaker 3: But eventually, yes, we would like to get to the poles.

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Speaker 3: And you know, the reality is that it's kind of

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Speaker 3: a sweet spot where you can get lots of daytime

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Speaker 3: sunshine to drive solar energy, but then also have relative

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Speaker 3: close access to these permanently shadowed regions. Basically go into

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Speaker 3: the crater and it's kind of behind these walls where

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Speaker 3: you never really get sun, so it's super cold and

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Speaker 3: it trapped moisture and ice over time. And that's not

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Speaker 3: a big area we're talking about, you know, you know,

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Speaker 3: dozens of kilometers across, so it's not so like you

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Speaker 3: could stake a claim to really the the coveted areas

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Speaker 3: of the Moon and it's not like a Texas sized area.

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Speaker 2: What's the.

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Speaker 1: Is it Are there minerals on the Moon that we

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Speaker 1: want or do we want to base the moon or

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Speaker 1: is it both.

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Speaker 3: It's really not entirely clear, right. So there's some companies

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Speaker 3: that will say there's helium three, which is valuable for

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Speaker 3: cooling and for superconducting cooling and potentially for energy. That's

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Speaker 3: not at all clear to me that the business case

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Speaker 3: closes for that. There's water ice at the Moon, and

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Speaker 3: if you could harvest that and process it, you could

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Speaker 3: turn that into rocket fuel. It's got liquid hydrogen and oxygen,

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Speaker 3: which is useful, but again it's not clear economically whether

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Speaker 3: that's the base case. Other potential applications are space tourism,

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Speaker 3: like if you could actually build some kind of a

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Speaker 3: hotel or resort on the Moon. I think that that

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Speaker 3: would be pretty popular. There are military applications the Moon,

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Speaker 3: and certainly cyslinar space is a very convenient high ground

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Speaker 3: looking back at Earth. And so there's all these potential applications.

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Speaker 3: It's not clear to me whether there's any killer one,

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Speaker 3: but you know, it is the next step for humans

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Speaker 3: as a species going out there, and so if you

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Speaker 3: want to say that you are the predominant space faring

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Speaker 3: species on planet Earth or nation. You need to really

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Speaker 3: have a presence, a strong presence of the Moon over

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Speaker 3: the next decade or two.

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Speaker 1: Is there a it is is basing? I mean do

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Speaker 1: in order to get to Mars more conveniently, would it

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Speaker 1: make more sense to launch from the Moon?

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Speaker 2: No?

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Speaker 3: Not really. The starship vehicle that SpaceX is building Elon

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Speaker 3: Musk is building is really the only credible Mars vehicle

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Speaker 3: on the horizon. And their plan is to refuel and

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Speaker 3: lower th orbit and not go to the Moon at all.

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Speaker 2: So they think they can do it that way.

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Speaker 1: It's not you know, look, I for all mankind was

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Speaker 1: it was a junkie on that and that one of

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Speaker 1: my you know what, when they get to Mars they

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Speaker 1: use a essentially a solar I don't know if you

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Speaker 1: what I call it. I guess almost like a sale, right,

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Speaker 1: a solar sale. And I was fast with it. Then

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Speaker 1: they were always really good about what's the science behind this?

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Speaker 1: Is this possible? And that that it came across it,

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Speaker 1: that it's more possible than maybe it appeared? Is what

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Speaker 1: are the different ways to feel?

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Speaker 2: It? Is? Solar power a realistic way to do it.

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Speaker 3: For propulsion, not really, but potentially nuclear electric propulsion is possible.

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Speaker 3: The problem with solar electric propulsion is that it's very

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Speaker 3: fuel efficient. It SIPs fuel, but it takes a long time.

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Speaker 3: So if you're sending cargo to Mars, that's a great solution.

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Speaker 3: But if you're a human and you want to get

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Speaker 3: there in you know, four to six months and not

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Speaker 3: four to six years, and you've really got to go

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Speaker 3: chemical propulsion or nuclear electric propulsion or something like that.

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Speaker 3: And there are certainly architectures where you can go to

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Speaker 3: the Moon and sort of build basically as spacecraft in

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Speaker 3: lunar orbit for fuel it there, and then go from

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Speaker 3: the Moon to Mars. But you know, those are all

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Speaker 3: theoretical right now. And so, as I said, the only

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Speaker 3: company really building hardware that could go to Mars is

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Speaker 3: the Starship Vehicle and that has that has plenty of flaws,

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Speaker 3: but they're actually building things, which is refresht.

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Speaker 1: So in sort of in our first ten minutes of

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Speaker 1: this conversation, is there is there a real reason to

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Speaker 1: be on the Moon other than flexing.

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Speaker 3: I think in the near term, flexing is the reason

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Speaker 3: to be there. Okay, that It goes back to like

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Speaker 3: it was in the sixties with the first space races.

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Speaker 3: It's all about geopolitics, right it was we were trying

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Speaker 3: to demonstrate the world that we were superior, and the

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Speaker 3: lunar landing was a very dramatic way to do that.

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Speaker 3: So it's kind of back to that. And there are

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Speaker 3: potential reasons for lunar activity, but we're not really going

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Speaker 3: to know until we go there, put boots on the

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Speaker 3: ground and do stuff with robots and humans and really

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Speaker 3: figure things out.

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Speaker 1: Is there a space treaty that has any sort of

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Speaker 1: jurisdiction over how countries have and I guess did China

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Speaker 1: sign on to it? I mean, what is there anything

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Speaker 1: that governs the Moon at this point between countries?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, so there's the Outer Space Treaty signed in nineteen

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Speaker 3: sixty seven by all the major players, including the United

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Speaker 3: States and China, which basically says no country can own

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Speaker 3: the Moon. It's kind of analogous to Antarctica here on Earth.

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Speaker 2: But we're questioning that right now, aren't we? A little?

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Speaker 3: Well? I mean, who knows right what this what this

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Speaker 3: administration is going to do, But there is nominally no

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Speaker 3: one who's planning to like stake ownership of on the Moon. Now,

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Speaker 3: the United States did several years ago basically create legislation

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Speaker 3: allowing it. So if you're a private company and you

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Speaker 3: want to go harvest or resource on the Moon, you

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Speaker 3: can do that. But you can't like say, we own

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Speaker 3: these six hundred acres and you know we're going to builders.

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Speaker 3: It's that all is a little bit fuzzy. But yeah,

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Speaker 3: there is a treaty and it is nominally respected by

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Speaker 3: all of the players.

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Speaker 1: So Waite, I want to go back to what you

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Speaker 1: just said that if a private space company finds a

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Speaker 1: mineral that they want to harvest, how how do they

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Speaker 1: stake the claim on it?

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Speaker 3: They go there, they build their factory, and they start

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Speaker 3: harvesting the resources. They just can't say that this is

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Speaker 3: you know, this land is owned in perpetuity by you know,

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Speaker 3: the solar harvesting company you know, or whatever.

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Speaker 2: But who are they getting their license?

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Speaker 1: Who are they getting their permission to do this in

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Speaker 1: this casement? Yeah, and and this is acceptable within the

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Speaker 1: terms of the treaty.

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Speaker 3: I mean, if China was going to go to the

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Speaker 3: Moon and harvest ice from the poles, like we would

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Speaker 3: not or could not stop them, like the treaty allows

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Speaker 3: that it's a little bit fuzzy. I mean this is

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Speaker 3: bear in mind, this was written six decades ago, right right.

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Speaker 1: Is there any movement to revisit it or does nobody

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Speaker 1: want to touch it?

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Speaker 3: There is movement to revisit it, but there are more

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Speaker 3: pressing matters in sort of global space diplomacy that kind

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Speaker 3: of the top. One of them is debris and lowerth orbit.

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Speaker 3: You know space ax Elon Musk has eight thousand, seven

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Speaker 3: thousand satellites and lowerth orbit flying around. China's starting to

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Speaker 3: launch a lot more satellites. Jeff Bezos is now launching,

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Speaker 3: has launched more than one hundred satellites this year, and

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Speaker 3: in want group, so like, there's all these objects flying around,

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Speaker 3: so we want to make sure we're communicating. I think

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Speaker 3: that's the top priority right now in terms of space.

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Speaker 1: And that I mean, how how crowded is it up there?

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Speaker 1: And is there a point where it's getting too crowded?

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Speaker 3: It really depends on who you ask, Chuck, because some

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Speaker 3: space environments will say it's already two crowded, and.

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Speaker 2: Space environmentalists that's an interesting phrase.

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Speaker 3: They exist, okay, and they do look at things like

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Speaker 3: global debris and worry about sort of runaway collisions called

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Speaker 3: the Kessler syndrome. But what you see when you look

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Speaker 3: at the data is that the number of collision avoidance

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Speaker 3: maneuvers over time has gone up quite a bit. And

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Speaker 3: the real concern is that as the United States and

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Speaker 3: China get more and more satellites up there, are they

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Speaker 3: talking to one another and Russia has assets up there too,

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Speaker 3: are the governments talking to one another and making sure

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Speaker 3: that everyone has the best data about these objects to

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Speaker 3: avoid collisions. So space is very big, and it can

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Speaker 3: accommodate a lot of satellites, but you need increasingly sophisticated

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Speaker 3: traffic management up there.

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Speaker 2: Well there's traffic management, but there's also I mean, I did.

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Speaker 1: A magazine story sort of a TV magazine show that

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Speaker 1: we had at meet the press on the next war,

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Speaker 1: and it was the next war starts in space.

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Speaker 2: Was the conclusion that that's.

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Speaker 1: The most likely first shots would be fired at satellites

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Speaker 1: in space, not necessarily shots fired here on Earth. So

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Speaker 1: it is it's one of the rationales for the Space Force.

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Speaker 1: It was my understanding. But what is the vulnerability up there?

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Speaker 1: And how concerned should we be about it.

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Speaker 3: First of all, I think that premise is exactly right.

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Speaker 3: We have seen certainly the war in Ukraine has opened

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Speaker 3: the eyes of all the major governments, including the United

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Speaker 3: States and China, about the value of space assets. And

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Speaker 3: in fact, Chinese government saw the value of starlink, like

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Speaker 3: how well that worked and how useful it was, and

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Speaker 3: like they immediately sort of redoubled their plans to build

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Speaker 3: a similar type of constellation. And we've seen it through

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Speaker 3: commercial synthetic capture radar and other things. So that's exactly right.

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Speaker 3: These space assets that are increased, you know, very vulnerable,

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Speaker 3: and over the last twelve months we've seen active maneuvering

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Speaker 3: by Russian and Chinese satellites to fly up two US

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Speaker 3: vehicles and like make close.

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Speaker 1: Just almost like the way you would like take a

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Speaker 1: fighter jet and say hiyah, yeah, like you know, we're here.

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Speaker 3: Two submarines passing like you know in the deep. It's

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Speaker 3: exact same kind of thing. Although maneuvering in space in

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Speaker 3: terms of the energy required is much much more difficult

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Speaker 3: to change orbits, but we've seen those kinds of maneuvers

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Speaker 3: in the United States has talked a lot more about

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Speaker 3: offensive capabilities in space up until a few years ago,

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Speaker 3: it was much more about protecting our assets through defensive

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Speaker 3: mechanisms and proliferation. So for them now it's more like

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Speaker 3: they're talking about putting offensive capabilities in space. So we

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Speaker 3: are clearly moving to a much more contested environment in space.

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Speaker 1: It seemed like fifteen years ago we were we were

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Speaker 1: it was more likely that we were going to behave

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Speaker 1: jointly with other nations. You know, the relationship with the

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Speaker 1: Russians had was pretty mature. When it came to our

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Speaker 1: space partnership, we certainly had the EU partnership. Yet all

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Speaker 1: these nations sort of all kind of working together on

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Speaker 1: this is this just sort of China breaking off and

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Speaker 1: then everybody becoming nationalistic again. I mean we were we

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Speaker 1: not on that path for a while.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, things were, things were kind of Yeah, if that's

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Speaker 3: a very astute observation, I think.

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Speaker 1: Star Trek e almost right like we were on our

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Speaker 1: way to being you know, the vision of what Star

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Speaker 1: Trek is the show. I mean, all the nations work together,

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Speaker 1: you know, I don't know if.

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Speaker 3: We're on a way to Star Trek that that would

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Speaker 3: be sort of a really a glass half full view

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Speaker 3: of areas. But but you are you are a stute

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Speaker 3: that that certainly we were in a much more peaceful posture.

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Speaker 3: A couple of things have changed. First of all, the

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Speaker 3: US Russian relationship has deteriorated a lot over the last

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Speaker 3: ten or fifteen years for obvious reasons. And then and

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Speaker 3: then the rise of China as a real space power

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Speaker 3: has changed things dramatically. They they are doing things on

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Speaker 3: both the civil and military side. They are very impressive

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Speaker 3: and have lots of capabilities, and that has really changed

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Speaker 3: the game. So you've got three main powers. But then

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Speaker 3: you've also got you know, India shooting down satellites of

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Speaker 3: demonstrating anti satellite capability. Japan has an increasingly sophisticated space program.

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Speaker 3: Turkey is starting to get going. Got the European Space Agency,

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Speaker 3: which is sort of the European If you want to

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Speaker 3: look for a Star Trek like player in space, it's

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Speaker 3: the European Space Agency. They're trying to do good things

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Speaker 3: and have a holistic approach, but it's it's it's new

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Speaker 3: players coming in and demonstrating serious capabilities that have up

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Speaker 3: the temperature.

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Speaker 2: Who can get up there on their own? Though? Is

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Speaker 2: it just the three countries or in terms of humans.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, so Russia still has its Soyu's system, which is

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Speaker 3: now fifty five sixty years old. Okay, China has a

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Speaker 3: capability that's two decades old, and the United States can

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Speaker 3: get up there because of SpaceX and Dragon. But that's

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Speaker 3: you know, Elon Musk.

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Speaker 1: Everybody else has to sort of lease, right, has to

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Speaker 1: sort of buy a seat or contract with. Maybe it's SpaceX,

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Speaker 1: maybe it's with the Right, like the European Space Agency

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Speaker 1: has to go up with somebody else.

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Speaker 3: Right, Absolutely, and they're at least a decade away from

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Speaker 3: having a human capability.

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Speaker 1: Who I was just going to say, are there other

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Speaker 1: countries trying to develop their own abilities to get up there?

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Speaker 2: I assume India is. India is.

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Speaker 3: They've had a program called gagan Yon, and they've been

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Speaker 3: making some progress. But initially I think they wanted to

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Speaker 3: get up there by twenty twenty two, and it became

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Speaker 3: twenty twenty four. Now I think it's probably closer to

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Speaker 3: twenty twenty eight, So they've had some teething pains that

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Speaker 3: they've developed this capability.

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Speaker 1: There's a reason results matter more than promises, just like

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Speaker 1: there's a reason Morgan and Morgan is America's largest injury

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Speaker 1: twenty five billion dollars for more than half a million clients.

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Speaker 1: It includes cases where insurance companies offered next to nothing,

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Speaker 1: just hoping to get away with paying as little as possible.

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Speaker 1: Morgan and Morgan fought back ended up winning millions. In fact,

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Speaker 1: in Pennsylvania, one client was awarded twenty six million dollars,

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Speaker 1: which was a staggering forty times the amount that the

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Speaker 1: insurance company originally offered. That original offer six hundred and

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Speaker 1: fifty thousand dollars twenty six million, six hundred and fifty

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Speaker 1: thousand dollars. So with more than one thousand lawyers across

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Speaker 1: the country, they know how to deliver for everyday people.

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337
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338
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Speaker 1: firms are not the same, So check out Morgan and Morgan.

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Speaker 1: Their fee is free unless they win. And what is

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Speaker 1: the UAE up to.

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Speaker 3: The UAE is seeking UA and other countries in the

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Speaker 3: Middle East but certainly uae IS is most prominent among them.

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Speaker 3: They're spending a lot of money to develop capabilities, and

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Speaker 3: right now they're in the phase where they're partnering with NASA.

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Speaker 3: They're partnering with US companies and research institution.

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Speaker 1: Should almost like having a private equity firm help out financially.

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Speaker 2: I mean, to be totally cynical.

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Speaker 3: I think so. But I think they do have a

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Speaker 3: long term vision of building some kind of spaceport capability

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Speaker 3: in the UA itself, but it's really hard to spin

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Speaker 3: that up from the ground. So they're in the partnership

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Speaker 3: phase at this point.

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Speaker 1: Can America get up into space without private contractors right now?

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Speaker 3: Nope? And and you know they NASA warded two contracts

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Speaker 3: a decade ago to Boeing in SpaceX and Boeing so

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Speaker 3: hasn't demonstrated a reliable capability. So like it's it's all

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Speaker 3: space X for at least the next few years to

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Speaker 3: the United States and probably beyond that.

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Speaker 1: I mean, this is what you know. Not to delve

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Speaker 1: too much into politics. I'm not asking you to be

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Speaker 1: a political pundit, but Elon Musk has a lot of

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Speaker 1: I mean he he individually holds a lot of keys

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Speaker 1: to the access to low orbit satellite systems and getting

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Speaker 1: up there, doesn't he he's.

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Speaker 3: The most important person in spaceflight globally, and it's not

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Speaker 3: even close. And it's not just like our getting our

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Speaker 3: assauts to and from the space station, like he has

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Speaker 3: the contract to safely bring the space station back down

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Speaker 3: to Earth. He, as you say, you know, controls the

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Speaker 3: Starlink network, which is increasingly valuable to our allies and

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Speaker 3: to our national defense in addition to all of its

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Speaker 3: commercial applications. And then of course SpaceX launches now the

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Speaker 3: most military satellites for the Department of Defense.

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Speaker 1: Has he shifted policy goals yet or not? Because it

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Speaker 1: did seem as if that that was the assumption of

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Speaker 1: why he wanted to be so involved with the Trump administration.

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Speaker 3: See, I don't think he would have got involved with

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Speaker 3: the Trump administration because of space politics. He had other

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Speaker 3: priorities such as they were, and he but he's always

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Speaker 3: been interested in Mars and always been pushing every administration

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Speaker 3: to focus on Mars. So I don't think that was different.

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Speaker 3: He found a willing audience for a few months in

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Speaker 3: Donald Trump, but they've sort of backed off that and

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Speaker 3: it's really the politics actually of the Artomist program are

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Speaker 3: interesting because SpaceX has the contract to land, actually land

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Speaker 3: humans on the Moon, take them from lunar orbit down

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Speaker 3: to the surface and back up and starship. But at

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Speaker 3: the same time, like that lunar lander program is not

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Speaker 3: a priority at all from Musk, so like they are

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Speaker 3: not putting a tremendous amount of resources into it.

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Speaker 2: Then they issue to contract in Blue Origin get one too.

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Speaker 3: They did, and this is where it gets even more interesting.

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Speaker 3: Blue Origin, of course owned by Jeff Bezos, now their lander.

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Speaker 3: They're behind SpaceX in terms of development, so like their

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Speaker 3: initial their capability right now will not be ready in

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Speaker 3: the twenty twenties. But I just reported last week that

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Speaker 3: there is a plan inside Blue Origin to use their

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Speaker 3: their existing lunar lander, which is going to watch for

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Speaker 3: the first time early next year, and to try to

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Speaker 3: put humans on that, which could potentially allow NASA to

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Speaker 3: get to the Moon this decade on a Blue Origin vehicle.

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Speaker 3: And so so we have to see if the NASA

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Speaker 3: administration takes that up.

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Speaker 2: Seriously, let me just sort of put a I want

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Speaker 2: to go back to the Boeing situation, because this is

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Speaker 2: I mean it is.

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Speaker 1: I mean, this feels like a company that isn't getting

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Speaker 1: anything right, whether it's deliveries of airplanes or these space contracts.

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Speaker 1: Given the shakeup that happened there, I mean, do we

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Speaker 1: expect Boeing to ever deliver on this.

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Speaker 3: Not in a meaningful way. I think you might get

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Speaker 3: a few human missions on Boeing Starliner spacecraft of the

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Speaker 3: National Space Station, But after twenty thirty, the future, at

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Speaker 3: least in the Western world, is going to be private

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Speaker 3: space stations in lower thorbit. And I just don't expect

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Speaker 3: Boeing to be able to compete on price with Dragon,

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Speaker 3: you know, because NASA is not going to be paying

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Speaker 3: for a lot of those missions. It's going to be

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Speaker 3: you know, if you know Chuck Todd wants to take

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Speaker 3: a two week visit to a private space station, he's

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Speaker 3: footing the bill, And so are you going to pay

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Speaker 3: an extra fifty million to fly in a Boeing vehicle

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Speaker 3: which is not as is dragging because it's not flying

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Speaker 3: as often?

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Speaker 1: Right, I know, I feel like I'm hodgepodging here, But

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Speaker 1: you've brought up space sort of tourism a couple of times.

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Speaker 1: Is the first sort of hotel going to be floating

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Speaker 1: or going to be on the moon.

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Speaker 3: You know, that's a great question because we've finally been

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Speaker 3: the last five years with with Virgin Galactic and Blue

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Speaker 3: Origin seen real actual space tourism. So you, as a

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Speaker 3: private statist, you can go buy a ticket and actually

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Speaker 3: have some expectation of going to space pretty quickly.

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Speaker 2: It's a lot of bitcoin, but yeah, it's a lot.

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Speaker 3: Of bitcoin, but it's you can actually do it now

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Speaker 3: like you couldn't really do it before. And but on

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Speaker 3: the on the other hand, like there has it's been

438
00:23:44,800 --> 00:23:46,840
Speaker 3: pretty high demand for this star War world space tourism

439
00:23:46,840 --> 00:23:48,399
Speaker 3: where basically you go up and come down and like,

440
00:23:48,520 --> 00:23:50,240
Speaker 3: you know, a few minutes.

441
00:23:50,320 --> 00:23:52,840
Speaker 2: Kind of what what Bezos has been doing with the celebrities.

442
00:23:53,160 --> 00:23:55,080
Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, and those are I mean, what a what

443
00:23:55,119 --> 00:23:56,520
Speaker 3: a fantastic ride that would be.

444
00:23:57,720 --> 00:24:00,240
Speaker 2: He kind of partially finances those lunch.

445
00:24:00,040 --> 00:24:02,040
Speaker 1: Finances all of it. Yeah, I mean yeah, with other

446
00:24:02,040 --> 00:24:04,600
Speaker 1: people buying a seat, right, Yeah, okay.

447
00:24:04,840 --> 00:24:09,320
Speaker 3: So but what we have not seen is great demand

448
00:24:09,440 --> 00:24:12,760
Speaker 3: for orbital missions. So like you can also book a dragon.

449
00:24:13,240 --> 00:24:16,399
Speaker 3: Now it's not going to be a million dollar ticket,

450
00:24:16,440 --> 00:24:19,040
Speaker 3: it's going to be at least probably sixty million dollars

451
00:24:19,080 --> 00:24:22,199
Speaker 3: to go to orbit for a few days, and you

452
00:24:22,280 --> 00:24:24,520
Speaker 3: have to train a lot more and it's more dangerous

453
00:24:24,760 --> 00:24:27,040
Speaker 3: and more rigorous. There hasn't been a lot of demand

454
00:24:27,080 --> 00:24:30,119
Speaker 3: for that, and I think the story is really to

455
00:24:30,200 --> 00:24:33,120
Speaker 3: be told on whether these private space stations, when there's

456
00:24:33,119 --> 00:24:37,919
Speaker 3: several companies in the United States working toward that building

457
00:24:37,920 --> 00:24:40,720
Speaker 3: successors to the International Space Station, don't I have not

458
00:24:40,840 --> 00:24:43,760
Speaker 3: seen enough for an economic site to show there's a

459
00:24:43,800 --> 00:24:46,480
Speaker 3: huge demand for that outside of like government astronauts, so

460
00:24:46,520 --> 00:24:48,520
Speaker 3: like UAE would pay for some of its people to

461
00:24:48,560 --> 00:24:53,760
Speaker 3: go there, or Turkey or Brazil, but whether private citizens

462
00:24:53,800 --> 00:24:55,720
Speaker 3: are paying money to go to these as hotels, I'm

463
00:24:55,720 --> 00:24:58,600
Speaker 3: not so sure. I do think there is potential for

464
00:24:58,600 --> 00:25:02,000
Speaker 3: a lunar space touris yeah, just I think that's more appealing,

465
00:25:02,040 --> 00:25:03,640
Speaker 3: Like you can go you can be in a gravity,

466
00:25:03,640 --> 00:25:07,840
Speaker 3: well you can go outside, and I think there's more

467
00:25:07,840 --> 00:25:09,800
Speaker 3: of a market there. But that's also you know, much

468
00:25:09,840 --> 00:25:11,760
Speaker 3: more difficult to bring into fruition.

469
00:25:12,160 --> 00:25:15,520
Speaker 2: It is this twenty forty, twenty eighty.

470
00:25:16,600 --> 00:25:20,120
Speaker 3: So for I think, you know, we'll have pretty good

471
00:25:20,200 --> 00:25:23,320
Speaker 3: lunar activity in twenty thirties by governments, and so I

472
00:25:23,359 --> 00:25:26,000
Speaker 3: could see private I could see some kind of private

473
00:25:26,040 --> 00:25:29,120
Speaker 3: station or accommodation at the hotel by twenty forty. It's

474
00:25:29,119 --> 00:25:29,800
Speaker 3: not out of the realm.

475
00:25:29,880 --> 00:25:35,320
Speaker 1: So within you know, within our lifetimes, we're likely to

476
00:25:35,680 --> 00:25:38,639
Speaker 1: It's that it's within the realm of possibility.

477
00:25:38,720 --> 00:25:40,080
Speaker 3: Yeah, absolutely, it's.

478
00:25:39,880 --> 00:25:43,760
Speaker 2: Not as zero. Now what about Mars.

479
00:25:43,000 --> 00:25:48,320
Speaker 3: Oh, Mars, So Mars, I'm not sure. What I love

480
00:25:48,320 --> 00:25:50,720
Speaker 3: for your listeners to appreciate is that it's really, really,

481
00:25:50,760 --> 00:25:53,639
Speaker 3: really hard to go to Mars, a lot lot harder

482
00:25:53,680 --> 00:25:54,200
Speaker 3: than the Moon.

483
00:25:55,080 --> 00:25:58,000
Speaker 2: So but I thought Arnold Schwarzenegger was already there, you know.

484
00:26:00,240 --> 00:26:02,280
Speaker 3: And as hard as it is to get to Mars safely,

485
00:26:02,320 --> 00:26:05,760
Speaker 3: it's even harder to come back. So like SpaceX has

486
00:26:05,800 --> 00:26:08,800
Speaker 3: the starship vehicle, but but refueling that on Mars is

487
00:26:08,880 --> 00:26:12,720
Speaker 3: extremely difficult. So I think the first missions we see

488
00:26:12,720 --> 00:26:16,159
Speaker 3: to Mars are going to be one way missions. And

489
00:26:17,240 --> 00:26:19,600
Speaker 3: you know, it's very difficult for me to see a

490
00:26:19,680 --> 00:26:24,680
Speaker 3: human on Mars before twenty forty, but after twenty forty,

491
00:26:25,000 --> 00:26:27,440
Speaker 3: it's certainly possible. I mean, we are, for the first

492
00:26:27,440 --> 00:26:29,639
Speaker 3: time in history, we're actually building a transportation system that

493
00:26:29,680 --> 00:26:32,720
Speaker 3: can get people there. It's all been theoretical up until

494
00:26:32,720 --> 00:26:33,160
Speaker 3: this point.

495
00:26:35,720 --> 00:26:37,919
Speaker 1: What do we I mean, look, I know why you

496
00:26:38,040 --> 00:26:39,920
Speaker 1: do these things. You don't know what you're going to find,

497
00:26:39,920 --> 00:26:42,560
Speaker 1: but you know you're better off exploring than not. Right,

498
00:26:42,560 --> 00:26:45,320
Speaker 1: It's sort of the same explorer mentality that the Europeans

499
00:26:45,320 --> 00:26:49,879
Speaker 1: had in the fourteen hundreds and the fifteen hundred. But

500
00:26:49,960 --> 00:26:53,560
Speaker 1: what have we learned so far from our these robotic missions?

501
00:26:54,320 --> 00:26:58,720
Speaker 1: And is there is there is there even more reason

502
00:26:58,760 --> 00:27:01,280
Speaker 1: to get there sooner? Is there is this going to

503
00:27:01,280 --> 00:27:06,000
Speaker 1: be a a There's going to be richer minerals, richer

504
00:27:06,040 --> 00:27:07,600
Speaker 1: resources there than we realize.

505
00:27:08,000 --> 00:27:11,080
Speaker 3: You're talking about Mars. Yes, no, there are, there are,

506
00:27:11,119 --> 00:27:13,959
Speaker 3: there are At this point, there are no known resources

507
00:27:14,040 --> 00:27:16,199
Speaker 3: on Mars that you could send back to Earth that

508
00:27:16,240 --> 00:27:18,240
Speaker 3: would have any kind of value, certainly have the value

509
00:27:18,240 --> 00:27:21,560
Speaker 3: that would justify the extraordinary cost and energy of shipping

510
00:27:21,600 --> 00:27:21,960
Speaker 3: them back.

511
00:27:23,480 --> 00:27:26,840
Speaker 1: So it feels like we may be spending a lot

512
00:27:26,840 --> 00:27:29,840
Speaker 1: of money to build an outpost in a desert like

513
00:27:30,080 --> 00:27:32,760
Speaker 1: environment that really is not that appealing to live in,

514
00:27:33,040 --> 00:27:35,640
Speaker 1: unless there's no place else to live in the universe.

515
00:27:36,240 --> 00:27:40,000
Speaker 3: So any location on Earth is far superior to Mars

516
00:27:40,040 --> 00:27:42,840
Speaker 3: on its best day. Yeah, there's no question about that.

517
00:27:44,080 --> 00:27:46,800
Speaker 3: And and in reality, the United States government has not

518
00:27:46,840 --> 00:27:49,040
Speaker 3: been spending a lot of money on Mars. In terms

519
00:27:49,080 --> 00:27:51,000
Speaker 3: of humans to Mars. We really haven't.

520
00:27:51,520 --> 00:27:53,639
Speaker 2: You're making the case never to send a human to Mars.

521
00:27:53,680 --> 00:27:56,160
Speaker 3: So there is Chuck. There is only one reason really

522
00:27:56,560 --> 00:27:59,479
Speaker 3: for humans to go to Mars, and it's this, like

523
00:27:59,640 --> 00:28:03,960
Speaker 3: it do you want humanity to be a space varing species?

524
00:28:04,200 --> 00:28:04,280
Speaker 2: Like?

525
00:28:05,359 --> 00:28:07,520
Speaker 3: Do you want us to live elsewhere in the Source System?

526
00:28:07,640 --> 00:28:12,679
Speaker 3: And Mars is not great, but it is better than

527
00:28:12,720 --> 00:28:14,720
Speaker 3: almost anywhere else in the Solar System other than the

528
00:28:14,760 --> 00:28:16,640
Speaker 3: planet Earth. And so if we're going to take our

529
00:28:16,680 --> 00:28:20,159
Speaker 3: first step toward living on other planets, it's probably got

530
00:28:20,200 --> 00:28:23,600
Speaker 3: to be on Mars. And then you know, then eventually,

531
00:28:23,640 --> 00:28:25,919
Speaker 3: when we develop technology to go to other stars and

532
00:28:25,960 --> 00:28:28,600
Speaker 3: find more habitable world, we'll have all of these lessons learned.

533
00:28:28,600 --> 00:28:32,840
Speaker 3: But if you want humanity to live beyond Earth, and

534
00:28:32,840 --> 00:28:35,720
Speaker 3: some people think that's crazy, and I understand that, but

535
00:28:35,760 --> 00:28:39,240
Speaker 3: I happen to believe in the starchbreak vision you gotlined earlier.

536
00:28:39,680 --> 00:28:42,480
Speaker 3: I mean, I think humans should go off and live

537
00:28:42,520 --> 00:28:44,720
Speaker 3: elsewhere in the universe. And that's really the first step.

538
00:28:45,480 --> 00:28:47,280
Speaker 1: No, I'm all for we got to find you know,

539
00:28:47,320 --> 00:28:49,600
Speaker 1: I think we you know, that's what it's all about

540
00:28:49,760 --> 00:28:52,960
Speaker 1: right is I think frankly it's part of the whole

541
00:28:53,000 --> 00:28:53,720
Speaker 1: search for meaning.

542
00:28:54,120 --> 00:28:56,560
Speaker 2: Right, Why are we here? Is there something else? Right?

543
00:28:56,560 --> 00:28:59,000
Speaker 1: There's a lot of reasons why you want to keep exploring,

544
00:28:59,680 --> 00:29:02,080
Speaker 1: But it seems to me that that we'd be better

545
00:29:02,160 --> 00:29:05,080
Speaker 1: off doing all of this for robotics. I mean, we've

546
00:29:05,080 --> 00:29:06,600
Speaker 1: made such advancements on.

547
00:29:06,520 --> 00:29:10,560
Speaker 2: This that that that we shouldn't be risking human It

548
00:29:10,640 --> 00:29:14,480
Speaker 2: doesn't seem as if we need to risk human lives yet.

549
00:29:14,200 --> 00:29:18,240
Speaker 3: If your goal is to do scientific exploration of the

550
00:29:18,280 --> 00:29:23,680
Speaker 3: Solar system, robots are superior in almost every case, certainly

551
00:29:23,800 --> 00:29:26,960
Speaker 3: for the cost of the of the mission. So yes,

552
00:29:27,080 --> 00:29:29,240
Speaker 3: I would agree that if if we just want to

553
00:29:29,240 --> 00:29:32,360
Speaker 3: make discoveries about this fascinating solar system we live in,

554
00:29:32,400 --> 00:29:35,360
Speaker 3: and it is truly fascinating, said robots.

555
00:29:37,080 --> 00:29:39,480
Speaker 1: If you could pick more places to go to see

556
00:29:39,480 --> 00:29:42,840
Speaker 1: if there are better habitable places in our solar system?

557
00:29:43,440 --> 00:29:47,320
Speaker 1: Is it moons of Jupiter and Saturn that are worth searching?

558
00:29:47,320 --> 00:29:47,680
Speaker 2: Where?

559
00:29:47,800 --> 00:29:52,800
Speaker 1: Where where is it that that that the that those

560
00:29:52,840 --> 00:29:55,760
Speaker 1: that have that have some hypotheses about the rest of

561
00:29:55,800 --> 00:29:58,880
Speaker 1: the Solar system and what and what we've learned so

562
00:29:59,080 --> 00:30:03,160
Speaker 1: far from from all the all the the long term

563
00:30:03,200 --> 00:30:05,080
Speaker 1: satellites we've been sending up there, and the and the

564
00:30:05,080 --> 00:30:08,240
Speaker 1: incredible the Web, the web telescope and all of that.

565
00:30:08,840 --> 00:30:11,960
Speaker 2: Where else would it be Europa? Is that that's the

566
00:30:12,040 --> 00:30:13,320
Speaker 2: name of one of the moons.

567
00:30:13,200 --> 00:30:16,960
Speaker 3: Europa's hell Man. Europa is bathed constantly in this deadly

568
00:30:17,080 --> 00:30:20,080
Speaker 3: radiation from the planet Jupiter. Like Europa is the last

569
00:30:20,080 --> 00:30:20,959
Speaker 3: place you would want to go.

570
00:30:21,040 --> 00:30:23,560
Speaker 2: Why is there always this fantasy about Europa?

571
00:30:23,920 --> 00:30:26,480
Speaker 3: Because there's this there's this huge ocean. There's more water

572
00:30:26,560 --> 00:30:29,640
Speaker 3: on Europa than there is on the planet Earth. Beneath

573
00:30:29,680 --> 00:30:33,240
Speaker 3: the ice shell, there's internal heating and so if you

574
00:30:33,280 --> 00:30:35,680
Speaker 3: look at the black smokers on Earth where life is

575
00:30:35,680 --> 00:30:40,680
Speaker 3: thought to have originated there, it's it's it's entirely conceivable.

576
00:30:40,840 --> 00:30:42,640
Speaker 3: There's life in that ocean on Europa.

577
00:30:43,120 --> 00:30:45,160
Speaker 2: And that's why there's this fascination of getting there.

578
00:30:45,200 --> 00:30:47,280
Speaker 1: It's like, let's just let's get some eyes on it,

579
00:30:47,400 --> 00:30:49,560
Speaker 1: let's see, and we absolutely.

580
00:30:49,160 --> 00:30:52,000
Speaker 3: Should because it's a fascinating, fascinating place. Now, if you

581
00:30:52,040 --> 00:30:53,640
Speaker 3: were asking me, and I think you were to sort

582
00:30:53,640 --> 00:30:55,320
Speaker 3: of rank places in the source and.

583
00:30:55,520 --> 00:30:56,760
Speaker 2: Live, where do you go next?

584
00:30:56,880 --> 00:30:59,800
Speaker 1: And you know, after Mars, obviously, because it's closest, but

585
00:31:00,120 --> 00:31:02,040
Speaker 1: the Moon is the Moon is closest, sure.

586
00:31:01,960 --> 00:31:04,400
Speaker 3: Right, and so that's it's that's a good place to

587
00:31:04,440 --> 00:31:06,240
Speaker 3: go as well, because you can get back within three

588
00:31:06,280 --> 00:31:09,160
Speaker 3: days that there's some kind of emergency, and you could

589
00:31:09,200 --> 00:31:11,440
Speaker 3: probably there are probably caves on the Moon or you

590
00:31:11,440 --> 00:31:14,360
Speaker 3: could dig tunnels on the Moon and live there, and

591
00:31:14,400 --> 00:31:18,720
Speaker 3: there's plenty of solar energy. H Mars is probably the

592
00:31:18,760 --> 00:31:22,320
Speaker 3: best planetary body surface. It's got a very thin atmosphere,

593
00:31:22,360 --> 00:31:25,960
Speaker 3: but it does have resources water, carbon dioxide, other sort

594
00:31:26,000 --> 00:31:31,120
Speaker 3: of things that you kind of needs as humans. Other

595
00:31:31,200 --> 00:31:35,880
Speaker 3: potentially interesting places are like the clouds of Venus because

596
00:31:35,880 --> 00:31:39,520
Speaker 3: there's a certain elevation at Venus where the atmosphere is

597
00:31:39,560 --> 00:31:42,600
Speaker 3: not breathable, but it is one standard atmosphere, so you

598
00:31:42,640 --> 00:31:43,440
Speaker 3: could walk around.

599
00:31:44,080 --> 00:31:46,080
Speaker 1: What does that mean? I've heard this the clouds of Venus?

600
00:31:46,120 --> 00:31:49,000
Speaker 1: I mean is this a is is it putting a

601
00:31:49,000 --> 00:31:52,280
Speaker 1: space station in Venus's orbits or is it actual?

602
00:31:52,360 --> 00:31:54,680
Speaker 2: Like explain that big Zeppelins.

603
00:31:54,720 --> 00:31:57,560
Speaker 3: Maybe yeah, you know, you could you could sell as

604
00:31:57,600 --> 00:31:59,880
Speaker 3: a science fiction person. You could kind of go wi.

605
00:32:00,280 --> 00:32:01,880
Speaker 3: But you know, there is a there is an elevation

606
00:32:01,960 --> 00:32:05,240
Speaker 3: in Venus's atmosphere where there's the basically the pressure air

607
00:32:05,280 --> 00:32:07,520
Speaker 3: pressure is similar to this here on Earth. Like on

608
00:32:07,560 --> 00:32:11,960
Speaker 3: the surface that absolutely hell right, super hot and you

609
00:32:12,000 --> 00:32:15,880
Speaker 3: would be crushed instantly. But at a certain altitude of

610
00:32:15,960 --> 00:32:21,080
Speaker 3: Venus you could get Earth like pressure and temperatures wouldn't

611
00:32:21,080 --> 00:32:24,960
Speaker 3: be crazy either, So that's interesting. But like there's nothing hard,

612
00:32:24,960 --> 00:32:28,479
Speaker 3: there's no firm surface right to build upon. You'd have

613
00:32:28,480 --> 00:32:31,520
Speaker 3: to float. And then you could look at a moon

614
00:32:31,560 --> 00:32:35,040
Speaker 3: maybe like Ganymede around Jupiter, which might have some potential.

615
00:32:35,080 --> 00:32:37,920
Speaker 3: But but you know, when Jeff Bezos says Earth is

616
00:32:37,960 --> 00:32:41,720
Speaker 3: the best planet, he's right. I mean, Earth is far

617
00:32:41,880 --> 00:32:44,959
Speaker 3: far more suited to humans in any other place in

618
00:32:45,000 --> 00:32:47,440
Speaker 3: our known solar system. But you know, fortunately the last

619
00:32:47,440 --> 00:32:49,800
Speaker 3: ten or fifteen years, we started to find exoplanets around

620
00:32:49,800 --> 00:32:52,959
Speaker 3: other stars and we see that that there's there's billions

621
00:32:52,960 --> 00:32:55,480
Speaker 3: and billions of planets in our galaxy and some of

622
00:32:55,520 --> 00:32:57,080
Speaker 3: them are going to be very earth like, and some

623
00:32:57,160 --> 00:32:58,960
Speaker 3: of them, I don't know if it's like a tiny

624
00:32:59,040 --> 00:33:02,400
Speaker 3: tiny fraction, but there will be some that could easily

625
00:33:02,400 --> 00:33:03,360
Speaker 3: support in life.

626
00:33:03,760 --> 00:33:05,480
Speaker 2: Right, Look, you know.

627
00:33:06,320 --> 00:33:09,800
Speaker 1: And what one of these civilizations may be developing faster

628
00:33:09,880 --> 00:33:13,440
Speaker 1: than us or vice versa. So we could find out

629
00:33:14,240 --> 00:33:16,280
Speaker 1: on that. But let's go back to developing the Moon.

630
00:33:17,200 --> 00:33:19,560
Speaker 1: And that is because I remember Bezos saying something once

631
00:33:19,600 --> 00:33:21,840
Speaker 1: that I thought was made a lot of sense that

632
00:33:21,880 --> 00:33:26,400
Speaker 1: he thought our heaviest industrial manufacturing should be outsourced to

633
00:33:26,440 --> 00:33:29,720
Speaker 1: the Moon. That it was actually, you know, could be

634
00:33:29,760 --> 00:33:32,040
Speaker 1: the best if you if you care about climate change

635
00:33:32,040 --> 00:33:37,880
Speaker 1: in this on this planet and trying to mitigate the

636
00:33:37,880 --> 00:33:41,240
Speaker 1: warming of the planet some that that would be a

637
00:33:41,320 --> 00:33:43,600
Speaker 1: big idea that could have a big impact.

638
00:33:45,320 --> 00:33:50,880
Speaker 3: Pipe dream, not a pipe dream, but it's difficult, but

639
00:33:51,200 --> 00:33:53,719
Speaker 3: we could get a lot of resources from space that

640
00:33:53,760 --> 00:33:57,840
Speaker 3: we basically we could get energy from space, right, whether

641
00:33:57,920 --> 00:34:01,120
Speaker 3: that's a huge farm of solar panels the Moon or

642
00:34:01,160 --> 00:34:03,840
Speaker 3: space based solar power, which has its challenges, but you

643
00:34:03,920 --> 00:34:08,040
Speaker 3: could certainly being lots of energy back to Earth. You know.

644
00:34:08,080 --> 00:34:11,000
Speaker 3: The big thing now is data centers, right, which are

645
00:34:11,160 --> 00:34:15,359
Speaker 3: consuming an enormous amount of power and water are environmentally

646
00:34:16,120 --> 00:34:19,480
Speaker 3: very you know, very not good for the planet. You

647
00:34:19,520 --> 00:34:22,560
Speaker 3: could put data centers in space where you get twenty

648
00:34:22,640 --> 00:34:25,239
Speaker 3: four on solar power, you don't need to use water

649
00:34:25,280 --> 00:34:28,720
Speaker 3: resources and so that there are some challenges for cooling

650
00:34:28,800 --> 00:34:30,800
Speaker 3: those in space, but I think they could be overcome

651
00:34:30,880 --> 00:34:35,120
Speaker 3: with radiators. You know, you think about all of the

652
00:34:35,160 --> 00:34:38,920
Speaker 3: strip mining we do the planet for valuable metals, not

653
00:34:39,000 --> 00:34:41,239
Speaker 3: so much on the Moon, but an asteroid. There are

654
00:34:41,360 --> 00:34:44,120
Speaker 3: metal rich asteroids, some of which are in near Earth

655
00:34:44,239 --> 00:34:47,719
Speaker 3: orbits that that theoretically we could get mine and bring

656
00:34:47,760 --> 00:34:49,839
Speaker 3: all the platinum back and other metals that we could

657
00:34:49,880 --> 00:34:55,600
Speaker 3: ever want for our needs here and manufacturing, like it's

658
00:34:55,680 --> 00:34:59,160
Speaker 3: just for a lot of applications. Manufacturing and microgravity is

659
00:34:59,440 --> 00:35:01,920
Speaker 3: a lot differ, of course than manufacturing on Earth, but

660
00:35:01,960 --> 00:35:04,120
Speaker 3: it's in some ways it's much better. Or you could

661
00:35:04,120 --> 00:35:07,240
Speaker 3: put manufacturing on the Moon. So you know, best basis

662
00:35:07,440 --> 00:35:10,480
Speaker 3: is vision is that you know, we create a garden

663
00:35:10,520 --> 00:35:13,399
Speaker 3: here on Earth and offshore or all of our you know,

664
00:35:13,840 --> 00:35:17,279
Speaker 3: and and in theory that's all possible, but it's it's

665
00:35:17,320 --> 00:35:20,799
Speaker 3: it's extremely challenging to do it. But we're taking we're

666
00:35:20,840 --> 00:35:23,040
Speaker 3: taking baby steps to it. I mean, the first step

667
00:35:23,160 --> 00:35:23,480
Speaker 3: this is like.

668
00:35:23,480 --> 00:35:26,720
Speaker 2: One hundred year plan like this at best, right.

669
00:35:26,600 --> 00:35:29,040
Speaker 3: Yeah, But the first step was like lowering the cost

670
00:35:29,080 --> 00:35:31,360
Speaker 3: of access to space. And we've seen that like SpaceX

671
00:35:31,400 --> 00:35:35,080
Speaker 3: with its Falcon nine rocket is a miracle. It launches

672
00:35:35,160 --> 00:35:38,920
Speaker 3: more in a year by a lot. Then you know,

673
00:35:39,040 --> 00:35:41,600
Speaker 3: a few years ago, every country in the world, every

674
00:35:41,600 --> 00:35:43,040
Speaker 3: company the world. You edit it all up and it

675
00:35:43,120 --> 00:35:45,359
Speaker 3: was like half of what the Falcon nine does now

676
00:35:45,440 --> 00:35:48,439
Speaker 3: every year on its And so like lowering the cost

677
00:35:48,480 --> 00:35:51,839
Speaker 3: of access to space, your reusability is a is an

678
00:35:52,200 --> 00:35:53,920
Speaker 3: essential first step, and we're taking.

679
00:35:53,640 --> 00:36:06,360
Speaker 1: It so obviously I let my brain to go to

680
00:36:06,400 --> 00:36:10,280
Speaker 1: politics too often. But you know, one of the difficulties

681
00:36:10,600 --> 00:36:13,720
Speaker 1: I think, I think one of the reasons I feel

682
00:36:13,719 --> 00:36:17,319
Speaker 1: like we sort of stopped space exploration for about twenty

683
00:36:17,400 --> 00:36:20,440
Speaker 1: years because of politics, meaning we didn't stop it, but

684
00:36:20,480 --> 00:36:23,200
Speaker 1: we weren't as aggressive, like the end of the Cold

685
00:36:23,239 --> 00:36:26,040
Speaker 1: War came and we didn't feel the pressure and urgency

686
00:36:26,040 --> 00:36:26,600
Speaker 1: to flex.

687
00:36:27,239 --> 00:36:30,319
Speaker 2: So for whatever reason, you know, that seemed to be

688
00:36:30,360 --> 00:36:31,000
Speaker 2: the main reason.

689
00:36:31,040 --> 00:36:33,719
Speaker 1: And then of course politically, why are you spending money

690
00:36:33,760 --> 00:36:34,920
Speaker 1: on there and not on healthcare?

691
00:36:35,000 --> 00:36:36,200
Speaker 2: Right, and not on childcare?

692
00:36:36,960 --> 00:36:41,000
Speaker 1: Is there a plausible way to sell spending on space

693
00:36:42,160 --> 00:36:45,040
Speaker 1: by saying, look, we're going to be able to bring

694
00:36:45,480 --> 00:36:49,319
Speaker 1: the cost of power down on this planet and it's

695
00:36:49,360 --> 00:36:50,840
Speaker 1: going to be a game changer, I.

696
00:36:50,880 --> 00:36:52,040
Speaker 2: Ask it it is.

697
00:36:52,320 --> 00:36:55,240
Speaker 1: It is among the plot points of for all mankind

698
00:36:55,320 --> 00:36:58,120
Speaker 1: that you know, the discovery of this incredive helium three

699
00:36:58,760 --> 00:37:04,360
Speaker 1: transforms you know, energy consumption on Earth and just totally

700
00:37:04,400 --> 00:37:07,120
Speaker 1: transforms the economies of both the Soviets and the United

701
00:37:07,160 --> 00:37:11,680
Speaker 1: States in this science obviously this alternative history mindset. But

702
00:37:12,080 --> 00:37:15,520
Speaker 1: is that what the assumption is about the Moon that

703
00:37:15,560 --> 00:37:19,600
Speaker 1: this could be you know, the best asset besides offshoring

704
00:37:19,880 --> 00:37:23,400
Speaker 1: stuff and space tourism, is it could provide a cheaper,

705
00:37:23,840 --> 00:37:27,080
Speaker 1: cleaner power source to power Earth essentially.

706
00:37:27,560 --> 00:37:31,520
Speaker 3: Yeah, So, like you're absolutely right. After the Apollo program,

707
00:37:31,960 --> 00:37:36,880
Speaker 3: Nixon and then Carter and Ford basically said NASA was

708
00:37:36,920 --> 00:37:38,560
Speaker 3: spending way too much money as five percent of the

709
00:37:38,560 --> 00:37:39,520
Speaker 3: fiddle budget when.

710
00:37:39,440 --> 00:37:41,720
Speaker 1: You do a massive inflation, right, it was a terrible

711
00:37:41,719 --> 00:37:43,280
Speaker 1: economy at the time, right.

712
00:37:43,440 --> 00:37:45,600
Speaker 3: And so like for all these reasons, they said, here's

713
00:37:45,640 --> 00:37:47,840
Speaker 3: the budget, you have fit a nice space program into that.

714
00:37:47,880 --> 00:37:49,680
Speaker 3: We got the Space Shuttle. It was like thirty years

715
00:37:49,680 --> 00:37:53,279
Speaker 3: of that. The big change. What's driving this and it

716
00:37:53,320 --> 00:37:56,000
Speaker 3: makes some people uncomfortable, and I understand that is that

717
00:37:56,880 --> 00:37:58,799
Speaker 3: a lot of the activity that's happening now is not

718
00:37:58,840 --> 00:38:02,080
Speaker 3: being led by NASA or Dart Bow or departments. It's

719
00:38:02,080 --> 00:38:03,879
Speaker 3: private companies that are going out there trying to figure

720
00:38:03,880 --> 00:38:05,600
Speaker 3: out way to make a buck. In space. They're trying

721
00:38:05,600 --> 00:38:07,960
Speaker 3: to follow the space X and and you know, you've

722
00:38:07,960 --> 00:38:11,920
Speaker 3: got the billionaire billionaire oligarchs Bezos Musk who are kind

723
00:38:11,920 --> 00:38:13,719
Speaker 3: of driving the bus on that. But there's lots of

724
00:38:13,719 --> 00:38:18,399
Speaker 3: other companies too, it's not just them.

725
00:38:17,480 --> 00:38:17,560
Speaker 1: And.

726
00:38:19,239 --> 00:38:24,200
Speaker 3: So government programs would help. But but what's really going

727
00:38:24,239 --> 00:38:26,200
Speaker 3: to drive us forward in that future, I think is

728
00:38:26,239 --> 00:38:30,800
Speaker 3: if private companies figure out a way to deliver that power.

729
00:38:31,560 --> 00:38:33,920
Speaker 3: And government contracts certainly would help speed that alone. But

730
00:38:34,080 --> 00:38:37,480
Speaker 3: we've got to show it can be commercially viable to

731
00:38:37,560 --> 00:38:39,000
Speaker 3: do these things.

732
00:38:39,040 --> 00:38:41,080
Speaker 1: And we don't really have it, does I see what

733
00:38:41,120 --> 00:38:43,319
Speaker 1: you're saying. But what you're saying right now, there's not

734
00:38:43,360 --> 00:38:48,759
Speaker 1: a It's not as if that's the true mission for NASA, right,

735
00:38:48,840 --> 00:38:51,920
Speaker 1: I mean, you could have Congress say your mission is

736
00:38:51,960 --> 00:38:54,320
Speaker 1: to figure out what resource on the Moon.

737
00:38:54,239 --> 00:38:57,840
Speaker 2: Is going to help mankind? Yes, what would we do differently?

738
00:38:57,960 --> 00:39:02,840
Speaker 3: The Department Defence mission is to to space dominance. Rights's

739
00:39:02,920 --> 00:39:07,399
Speaker 3: mission is to explore, and there's no agency really that's

740
00:39:07,440 --> 00:39:12,439
Speaker 3: doing commercial development of space. Things that would help would

741
00:39:12,480 --> 00:39:16,200
Speaker 3: be like a directive from the US government that we

742
00:39:16,280 --> 00:39:19,279
Speaker 3: want ten percent of our power to come from outer

743
00:39:19,400 --> 00:39:22,319
Speaker 3: space by twenty fifty or something like that that would

744
00:39:22,400 --> 00:39:25,920
Speaker 3: really drive this kind of activity. But you're right, at

745
00:39:25,920 --> 00:39:30,439
Speaker 3: this point there is no overarching federal push to move

746
00:39:30,520 --> 00:39:33,520
Speaker 3: all of these activities into space for the benefit of Earth.

747
00:39:34,760 --> 00:39:42,480
Speaker 1: Let me use your meteorological expertise, but more on the

748
00:39:42,480 --> 00:39:47,440
Speaker 1: commercial side. Who's got the best info on weather these days?

749
00:39:47,480 --> 00:39:49,600
Speaker 1: Is it the private sector? Is it still the government?

750
00:39:50,280 --> 00:39:54,880
Speaker 3: It's the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting ECMWF.

751
00:39:55,160 --> 00:39:56,880
Speaker 2: How did they become the dominant player?

752
00:39:57,560 --> 00:40:00,680
Speaker 3: Well, they invested in it. They invested both and putting

753
00:40:00,760 --> 00:40:03,960
Speaker 3: supercomputing power toward it, but also in the ability to

754
00:40:04,160 --> 00:40:06,560
Speaker 3: very quickly take real time data from around the planet

755
00:40:06,560 --> 00:40:08,520
Speaker 3: and put it in their their global models. And now

756
00:40:08,560 --> 00:40:10,879
Speaker 3: they're modeling is just far superior to what's being done

757
00:40:10,880 --> 00:40:11,759
Speaker 3: in the United States.

758
00:40:12,200 --> 00:40:15,359
Speaker 2: And why did we fall behind on this? Just lack

759
00:40:15,400 --> 00:40:17,040
Speaker 2: of investment, lack of interest.

760
00:40:17,360 --> 00:40:22,520
Speaker 3: Lack of investment. You know this was this happened. It

761
00:40:22,320 --> 00:40:24,719
Speaker 3: wasn't a Republican or Democrat thing. It happened kind of

762
00:40:24,760 --> 00:40:28,560
Speaker 3: over a decade or more. And obviously the recent cuts

763
00:40:28,600 --> 00:40:32,480
Speaker 3: to NOAH, which which aren't so much affecting day to

764
00:40:32,560 --> 00:40:35,240
Speaker 3: day forecasting as much as it is sort of draining

765
00:40:35,320 --> 00:40:40,480
Speaker 3: the future of basically forecast improvement. So it's not it

766
00:40:40,480 --> 00:40:41,719
Speaker 3: doesn't look like it's going to get better.

767
00:40:42,239 --> 00:40:46,640
Speaker 1: In Tenson, does AI at all provide sort of a

768
00:40:46,640 --> 00:40:49,439
Speaker 1: finger in the dike aspect to things like, Okay, we're

769
00:40:49,440 --> 00:40:53,200
Speaker 1: not investing, but boy the boy, the acceleration of of

770
00:40:53,360 --> 00:40:58,400
Speaker 1: AI tools in the weather forecasting space might Does that

771
00:40:58,440 --> 00:40:59,399
Speaker 1: close the gap at all?

772
00:40:59,600 --> 00:41:03,920
Speaker 3: So that's a great question. And one of the really

773
00:41:04,000 --> 00:41:07,640
Speaker 3: powerful applications of AI that I've seen has been in modeling.

774
00:41:08,960 --> 00:41:11,319
Speaker 3: You know, to run a traditional physics based model, where

775
00:41:11,320 --> 00:41:15,200
Speaker 3: basically you're trying to emulate all the activity of the

776
00:41:15,239 --> 00:41:18,719
Speaker 3: physical processes around the world, and you need these vast

777
00:41:18,800 --> 00:41:21,600
Speaker 3: supercomputers and take some hours to run through these complicated

778
00:41:21,600 --> 00:41:25,160
Speaker 3: models to produce point by point forecasts. AI models don't

779
00:41:25,239 --> 00:41:29,680
Speaker 3: use physics like that. They basically learn from past forecast

780
00:41:29,760 --> 00:41:33,360
Speaker 3: conditions and to see what happened. And and those models,

781
00:41:33,719 --> 00:41:35,920
Speaker 3: some of which can be run on a desktop computer,

782
00:41:36,239 --> 00:41:42,360
Speaker 3: are shockingly good. Had hurricane forecasting already it that's to

783
00:41:42,400 --> 00:41:45,319
Speaker 3: be determined, but the early returns are that they are

784
00:41:45,360 --> 00:41:47,959
Speaker 3: almost as good as or as good as the best

785
00:41:48,000 --> 00:41:51,080
Speaker 3: physics based models in hurricane forecasting and other kinds of

786
00:41:51,120 --> 00:41:54,160
Speaker 3: forecasting as well. It's really early innings, right, It's not

787
00:41:54,360 --> 00:41:57,319
Speaker 3: like these are not mature products like the physics based

788
00:41:57,320 --> 00:42:00,440
Speaker 3: models we've been working on for decades. These are months

789
00:42:00,440 --> 00:42:03,759
Speaker 3: and years. So I do think AI has as a

790
00:42:03,800 --> 00:42:08,560
Speaker 3: really opportunity to change the game. It remains to be

791
00:42:08,640 --> 00:42:12,040
Speaker 3: seen to be me like by how much, but absolutely

792
00:42:12,800 --> 00:42:14,960
Speaker 3: it's an important component of forecasting going forward.

793
00:42:15,280 --> 00:42:18,920
Speaker 1: How good is the private sector in weather forecasting, meaning

794
00:42:19,000 --> 00:42:21,000
Speaker 1: are they throwing real money at it? Is it it's

795
00:42:21,200 --> 00:42:24,400
Speaker 1: similar to what we've seen with SpaceX and Elon or

796
00:42:25,360 --> 00:42:28,200
Speaker 1: is it not quite that mature of an industry if

797
00:42:28,239 --> 00:42:28,560
Speaker 1: you will.

798
00:42:30,480 --> 00:42:33,920
Speaker 3: The difference is that SpaceX could be its own space

799
00:42:33,960 --> 00:42:36,960
Speaker 3: agency and in a lot of ways would be superior

800
00:42:37,040 --> 00:42:40,440
Speaker 3: to NASS in the things it does. It does not

801
00:42:40,600 --> 00:42:44,200
Speaker 3: need NASA anymore for a lot of lots of things.

802
00:42:44,680 --> 00:42:48,480
Speaker 3: That's not true in the weather enterprise. Forecasters private companies

803
00:42:48,520 --> 00:42:51,480
Speaker 3: still rely on the federal government to collect data, to

804
00:42:51,560 --> 00:42:56,240
Speaker 3: store data, to run these large models, to run regional models.

805
00:42:56,600 --> 00:43:01,760
Speaker 3: So there's this whole foundation that the governments in Europe,

806
00:43:01,960 --> 00:43:06,680
Speaker 3: the United States, Japan, China have built, and the private

807
00:43:06,680 --> 00:43:08,879
Speaker 3: apparatus is kind of built upon that. If you were

808
00:43:08,880 --> 00:43:12,680
Speaker 3: to remove that foundation, the private companies would suffer significantly.

809
00:43:12,920 --> 00:43:15,440
Speaker 2: So the private companies don't like these cuts, to know.

810
00:43:16,400 --> 00:43:20,120
Speaker 3: No, I don't think they do. Now you could see

811
00:43:20,160 --> 00:43:23,440
Speaker 3: like someone from ACI Weather being made the no administrator

812
00:43:23,480 --> 00:43:25,799
Speaker 3: who was like trying to hollow out some of the

813
00:43:25,800 --> 00:43:28,480
Speaker 3: public facing products the National Weather Service does. They can

814
00:43:28,480 --> 00:43:32,120
Speaker 3: come in and sell those, but the basic work that

815
00:43:32,200 --> 00:43:35,600
Speaker 3: the federal government does, Yes, that's not good for anyone.

816
00:43:36,080 --> 00:43:39,640
Speaker 1: If you could waive a magic wand and eliminate politics

817
00:43:39,640 --> 00:43:41,560
Speaker 1: out of this. What investments do you think we need

818
00:43:41,600 --> 00:43:44,520
Speaker 1: to be making in weather data collection that we're not

819
00:43:44,560 --> 00:43:47,640
Speaker 1: doing right now or that we're too slow in doing so.

820
00:43:48,840 --> 00:43:52,319
Speaker 3: The things that we need to do are improving our

821
00:43:52,360 --> 00:43:56,480
Speaker 3: ability to collect real time data around the planet, but

822
00:43:56,600 --> 00:44:00,520
Speaker 3: especially in the oceans and atmosphere near the United States.

823
00:44:01,000 --> 00:44:03,960
Speaker 3: And then we need to get much better systems to

824
00:44:04,000 --> 00:44:07,359
Speaker 3: assimilate that data. But that I mean is just you

825
00:44:07,400 --> 00:44:09,880
Speaker 3: take that data and get it into the computer models

826
00:44:09,920 --> 00:44:12,200
Speaker 3: as quickly as possible, so you're starting with the best

827
00:44:12,200 --> 00:44:14,879
Speaker 3: set of initial conditions you have. And one way where

828
00:44:14,920 --> 00:44:16,840
Speaker 3: we're like we could really improve that is if you

829
00:44:16,880 --> 00:44:20,320
Speaker 3: think about all the airplanes that are taking off today

830
00:44:20,400 --> 00:44:22,080
Speaker 3: from airports around the world.

831
00:44:22,280 --> 00:44:23,360
Speaker 2: It should be weather balloons.

832
00:44:23,880 --> 00:44:25,319
Speaker 3: A lot of them are A lot of them are

833
00:44:25,360 --> 00:44:27,200
Speaker 3: They have like a sensor on them that collect that

834
00:44:27,320 --> 00:44:28,759
Speaker 3: data as it goes up and now you get a

835
00:44:28,840 --> 00:44:30,759
Speaker 3: very nice profile of the atmosphere up to about thirty

836
00:44:30,760 --> 00:44:33,880
Speaker 3: five thousand feet. The problem is a lot of that

837
00:44:33,960 --> 00:44:38,200
Speaker 3: data is proprietary, or it's not shared quickly enough like

838
00:44:38,520 --> 00:44:40,480
Speaker 3: I would. I would try to make that much more

839
00:44:40,480 --> 00:44:43,359
Speaker 3: efficient and those kinds of things that we have the

840
00:44:43,400 --> 00:44:46,000
Speaker 3: best possible information about our planet now, so that the

841
00:44:46,040 --> 00:44:47,600
Speaker 3: five day forecast is improved.

842
00:44:48,080 --> 00:44:51,080
Speaker 1: I have to say, why is that proprietary data?

843
00:44:52,160 --> 00:44:54,839
Speaker 3: Well, I mean, if you're a company that has paid,

844
00:44:55,160 --> 00:44:57,200
Speaker 3: you know, a million dollars to get your sensors or

845
00:44:57,280 --> 00:44:59,200
Speaker 3: one hundred million dollars to get your sensors on United

846
00:44:59,200 --> 00:45:02,239
Speaker 3: air Lines planes, then you probably want to sell that

847
00:45:02,280 --> 00:45:04,200
Speaker 3: to the government at a high price, and the government

848
00:45:04,200 --> 00:45:05,799
Speaker 3: maybe willing to pay for some of it but not

849
00:45:05,840 --> 00:45:07,839
Speaker 3: all of it, or you know, it's just that kind

850
00:45:07,880 --> 00:45:08,120
Speaker 3: of thing.

851
00:45:09,320 --> 00:45:11,320
Speaker 2: The airplane can't get in the air without the government.

852
00:45:11,360 --> 00:45:13,239
Speaker 1: I mean, I don't mean to sound like you know,

853
00:45:13,560 --> 00:45:15,680
Speaker 1: but it seems as if the government shouldn't have to

854
00:45:16,520 --> 00:45:19,200
Speaker 1: have to pay for data collection that is sort of

855
00:45:19,280 --> 00:45:23,120
Speaker 1: piggingbacking off of essentially government.

856
00:45:24,520 --> 00:45:27,200
Speaker 2: Getting that airplane into the air well.

857
00:45:27,200 --> 00:45:29,320
Speaker 3: I'm happy to talk space policy all day, but do

858
00:45:29,360 --> 00:45:32,400
Speaker 3: you get pretty quickly into politics those kind of regulations.

859
00:45:32,440 --> 00:45:33,040
Speaker 2: Oh, I hear you.

860
00:45:33,120 --> 00:45:36,439
Speaker 1: But it's like that does seem it seems odd that

861
00:45:37,400 --> 00:45:40,560
Speaker 1: the government would then have to pay for something that. Yeah,

862
00:45:40,880 --> 00:45:43,920
Speaker 1: that it that, frankly is a This feels like a

863
00:45:43,960 --> 00:45:48,080
Speaker 1: good that benefits everybody. Yeah, that it's not necessarily you know,

864
00:45:48,239 --> 00:45:50,320
Speaker 1: I mean I get the look, I get the private

865
00:45:50,320 --> 00:45:54,080
Speaker 1: sector motivation and that specific thing, but everybody would benefit

866
00:45:54,120 --> 00:45:54,840
Speaker 1: from that data.

867
00:45:54,880 --> 00:45:57,920
Speaker 3: The airlines are certainly benefit from where I could forecast.

868
00:45:58,160 --> 00:46:02,000
Speaker 1: Right, which me to something that you know, did you

869
00:46:02,080 --> 00:46:06,719
Speaker 1: think thirty years ago that being a meteorologist, Because it

870
00:46:06,800 --> 00:46:10,600
Speaker 1: seems as if private companies all over the world want

871
00:46:10,600 --> 00:46:13,480
Speaker 1: to hire their own meteorologists. Now different, you know, sports

872
00:46:13,560 --> 00:46:15,400
Speaker 1: leagues now do it. And I say this with a

873
00:46:15,440 --> 00:46:20,279
Speaker 1: little bit of personal ambition here. My daughter is a

874
00:46:20,320 --> 00:46:25,000
Speaker 1: senior majoring in oceanography and minoring and meteorology and learning

875
00:46:25,040 --> 00:46:29,520
Speaker 1: marine biology. And you know, there was a time twenty

876
00:46:29,600 --> 00:46:32,320
Speaker 1: years ago, I don't there was really only the government

877
00:46:33,239 --> 00:46:36,479
Speaker 1: as a as a place to go. This does seem

878
00:46:36,520 --> 00:46:40,000
Speaker 1: as if that the job market for people with this

879
00:46:40,080 --> 00:46:41,840
Speaker 1: type of expertise has never been better.

880
00:46:42,680 --> 00:46:47,880
Speaker 3: It is a great time to be a meteorologist, you know,

881
00:46:48,080 --> 00:46:50,640
Speaker 3: with skills Like I'll just give you a very basic

882
00:46:50,719 --> 00:46:53,279
Speaker 3: example the kind of information the government does provide, but

883
00:46:53,320 --> 00:46:55,239
Speaker 3: where the private company can step been. So let's say

884
00:46:55,239 --> 00:46:58,440
Speaker 3: your Target corporation and you've got shopping carts in the

885
00:46:58,480 --> 00:47:01,800
Speaker 3: parking lot, and say if the wind speeds get above

886
00:47:01,880 --> 00:47:06,440
Speaker 3: twenty three miles per hour, then those cards start blowing

887
00:47:06,480 --> 00:47:08,880
Speaker 3: around and you get lost, they could blow into cars,

888
00:47:08,880 --> 00:47:13,320
Speaker 3: they become a hazard issues, right, Yeah, So us target

889
00:47:13,480 --> 00:47:18,799
Speaker 3: would love to know when it's forecast the winds or

890
00:47:18,800 --> 00:47:20,719
Speaker 3: forces to give about twenty three miles per hour at

891
00:47:20,800 --> 00:47:23,799
Speaker 3: every store you operate, and then you can communicate that

892
00:47:23,840 --> 00:47:26,920
Speaker 3: to bring in the cars or carts or do whatever.

893
00:47:28,480 --> 00:47:31,520
Speaker 3: And so ten years ago, its fifteen years ago. That's

894
00:47:31,560 --> 00:47:33,560
Speaker 3: kind of where the private weather industry was like like

895
00:47:33,640 --> 00:47:35,719
Speaker 3: sort of helping those kinds of use cases. And it's

896
00:47:35,760 --> 00:47:39,239
Speaker 3: just grown, especially as with climate change, weather becomes more

897
00:47:39,360 --> 00:47:45,359
Speaker 3: uncertain and it's becomes more impactful. So's it's just you know,

898
00:47:45,719 --> 00:47:49,800
Speaker 3: it's every business has their own specific you know, information

899
00:47:49,880 --> 00:47:52,000
Speaker 3: they need about weather, and so it makes sense that

900
00:47:52,080 --> 00:47:55,200
Speaker 3: this is happening, especially since the government provides it's a

901
00:47:55,239 --> 00:47:59,160
Speaker 3: generalized product. You know, they provide the warnings for hurricanes

902
00:47:59,200 --> 00:48:02,800
Speaker 3: and tornadoes, things like that, they don't provide specific forecast

903
00:48:02,840 --> 00:48:03,600
Speaker 3: to target.

904
00:48:03,840 --> 00:48:06,360
Speaker 1: Look the I think one of the more remarkable developments

905
00:48:06,400 --> 00:48:09,680
Speaker 1: over the last fifteen years has been micro forecasting. You know,

906
00:48:09,880 --> 00:48:12,480
Speaker 1: I sit here and I think, frankly, it's a it's

907
00:48:12,600 --> 00:48:16,520
Speaker 1: it's something every local I'm trying desperately to come up,

908
00:48:16,560 --> 00:48:18,799
Speaker 1: you know, work in this space of how do we

909
00:48:19,520 --> 00:48:22,719
Speaker 1: expand more local news again, how do we revitalize it?

910
00:48:22,800 --> 00:48:26,160
Speaker 1: And micro forecasting is something everybody wants. I mean, I

911
00:48:26,200 --> 00:48:29,759
Speaker 1: live in the the Washington metro area. I don't want

912
00:48:29,840 --> 00:48:33,080
Speaker 1: Washington DC weather. I want Arlington County weather, right, And

913
00:48:33,160 --> 00:48:35,640
Speaker 1: I'm you know, for the most part, you can get

914
00:48:35,640 --> 00:48:38,239
Speaker 1: that in Capital Weather Gang, which is one of the

915
00:48:38,280 --> 00:48:41,480
Speaker 1: few local products that the Post does that is really

916
00:48:41,880 --> 00:48:45,400
Speaker 1: really good and almost like reason alone when you live

917
00:48:45,440 --> 00:48:49,840
Speaker 1: in this community to be a subscriber this, this micro

918
00:48:49,880 --> 00:48:52,680
Speaker 1: forecasting just wasn't possible. It seemed like fifteen years ago

919
00:48:52,719 --> 00:48:55,320
Speaker 1: that this part of weather forecasting has really improved.

920
00:48:55,400 --> 00:48:58,360
Speaker 3: No, So Capitol Weather Gang folks are good friends of mine,

921
00:48:58,480 --> 00:49:00,880
Speaker 3: and I operate a site in hue And called Spacicity.

922
00:49:00,920 --> 00:49:04,879
Speaker 3: Whether that's similar in scope to that, So I'm very

923
00:49:04,920 --> 00:49:06,840
Speaker 3: well familiar with what you're talking about. I think the

924
00:49:06,960 --> 00:49:11,279
Speaker 3: big change, Chuck, is the Internet. Like I worked at

925
00:49:11,280 --> 00:49:15,759
Speaker 3: a newspaper before, and forecasting was Your forecast was twelve

926
00:49:15,800 --> 00:49:16,840
Speaker 3: to eighteen hours late.

927
00:49:17,320 --> 00:49:19,080
Speaker 2: By the time it automated it to print, right.

928
00:49:19,160 --> 00:49:21,520
Speaker 3: So the Internet was a great equalizer because you could

929
00:49:21,520 --> 00:49:23,200
Speaker 3: put as much information out there. You could share all

930
00:49:23,280 --> 00:49:26,239
Speaker 3: kinds of graphics and things like that, and so it

931
00:49:26,600 --> 00:49:29,319
Speaker 3: became a better medium than television for communicating that kind

932
00:49:29,360 --> 00:49:32,120
Speaker 3: of information. So, yes, the forecasting tools have improved, but

933
00:49:32,200 --> 00:49:34,840
Speaker 3: also the means of communication the medium.

934
00:49:35,120 --> 00:49:37,600
Speaker 1: Well, let me add so the data itself was probably

935
00:49:37,680 --> 00:49:39,759
Speaker 1: there fifteen years ago. We just didn't have a good

936
00:49:39,800 --> 00:49:40,680
Speaker 1: way of sharing it.

937
00:49:41,360 --> 00:49:45,440
Speaker 3: The data has certainly improved in terms of amount and

938
00:49:45,480 --> 00:49:51,120
Speaker 3: accessibility online, but the ability to share it has also

939
00:49:51,200 --> 00:49:52,600
Speaker 3: been a big piece of what's changed.

940
00:49:54,000 --> 00:49:56,000
Speaker 1: Before I let you go tell me about arts technica

941
00:49:56,200 --> 00:49:59,840
Speaker 1: and tell me the mission and sort of I'm curious

942
00:50:00,120 --> 00:50:03,920
Speaker 1: you've thought of the transition from the you know, Houston

943
00:50:04,000 --> 00:50:05,239
Speaker 1: Chronicle to this.

944
00:50:06,000 --> 00:50:08,080
Speaker 3: Yeah, So our Technical is a digital publication. It's been

945
00:50:08,080 --> 00:50:11,240
Speaker 3: around for about twenty five years, bought by Conde Nasts

946
00:50:11,360 --> 00:50:13,759
Speaker 3: about a decade ago or a little bit longer. And

947
00:50:13,800 --> 00:50:18,719
Speaker 3: it's just a news, technology, science, space news website where

948
00:50:18,719 --> 00:50:23,520
Speaker 3: we try to, you know, provide rational information in increasingly

949
00:50:23,560 --> 00:50:24,359
Speaker 3: irrational world.

950
00:50:26,840 --> 00:50:28,759
Speaker 2: I hear there the transition.

951
00:50:28,840 --> 00:50:31,160
Speaker 1: Do do you feel as if you're in the independent

952
00:50:31,320 --> 00:50:33,160
Speaker 1: space or how do you describe it?

953
00:50:33,719 --> 00:50:34,319
Speaker 2: I'll tell you what.

954
00:50:35,080 --> 00:50:37,360
Speaker 3: I wrote a lot about NASA when I was at

955
00:50:37,360 --> 00:50:41,400
Speaker 3: the Houston Chronicle cover Johnson Space Center. I did feel

956
00:50:41,440 --> 00:50:44,880
Speaker 3: like I was more restrained writing for the traditional publication,

957
00:50:45,040 --> 00:50:46,960
Speaker 3: Like there were times I wanted to take the gloves

958
00:50:47,000 --> 00:50:48,840
Speaker 3: off a little bit and be a little more critical.

959
00:50:49,040 --> 00:50:52,120
Speaker 3: And so moving online has been more freeing in that

960
00:50:52,280 --> 00:50:54,279
Speaker 3: sense of being able to write more of what I

961
00:50:54,280 --> 00:50:56,000
Speaker 3: want to write and what I think is most important

962
00:50:56,000 --> 00:50:56,319
Speaker 3: to cover.

963
00:50:56,800 --> 00:51:01,080
Speaker 1: What is your balance in writing for experts versus writing

964
00:51:01,160 --> 00:51:04,000
Speaker 1: for lay people versus writing for the general public?

965
00:51:04,080 --> 00:51:04,200
Speaker 3: Right?

966
00:51:04,239 --> 00:51:07,080
Speaker 1: I think to me that's the real challenge. And maybe

967
00:51:07,120 --> 00:51:09,839
Speaker 1: AI is going to be a great tool for this. Hey,

968
00:51:10,440 --> 00:51:13,680
Speaker 1: you know, take this and help me translate it to

969
00:51:13,840 --> 00:51:16,560
Speaker 1: an audience that doesn't have you know that maybe hasn't

970
00:51:16,560 --> 00:51:17,960
Speaker 1: read up on this, et cetera, et cetera.

971
00:51:18,000 --> 00:51:20,120
Speaker 2: But how do you think about it when you're writing?

972
00:51:20,160 --> 00:51:21,520
Speaker 2: Who are you writing for? In your head?

973
00:51:21,800 --> 00:51:23,800
Speaker 3: Yeah, so that's a great question. So at the Chronicle

974
00:51:23,920 --> 00:51:29,200
Speaker 3: it was very much a general lay audience. Ours Technica,

975
00:51:29,320 --> 00:51:31,200
Speaker 3: as the name suggests, is a little bit more of

976
00:51:31,239 --> 00:51:34,719
Speaker 3: a technical oriented site. So it's it's more for like

977
00:51:34,800 --> 00:51:38,080
Speaker 3: a more informed audience. But still, I mean, you know,

978
00:51:38,200 --> 00:51:40,439
Speaker 3: with with space and other topics, you get pretty niche

979
00:51:40,440 --> 00:51:43,719
Speaker 3: pretty quickly, and so I think I would say it's

980
00:51:43,760 --> 00:51:46,040
Speaker 3: it's written for an intellectually curious audience.

981
00:51:47,520 --> 00:51:49,600
Speaker 1: I'd like to think that that's where I qualify because

982
00:51:49,640 --> 00:51:52,680
Speaker 1: I don't know any of the technicolo the technology that well.

983
00:51:52,719 --> 00:51:55,040
Speaker 1: But but I'm just enough to be dangerous enough to

984
00:51:55,080 --> 00:51:58,239
Speaker 1: ask questions which is which is?

985
00:51:58,600 --> 00:51:59,480
Speaker 2: I guess that's a start.

986
00:52:00,200 --> 00:52:02,000
Speaker 3: You've got to be curious about the natural world and

987
00:52:02,040 --> 00:52:02,759
Speaker 3: want to learn more.

988
00:52:03,120 --> 00:52:06,680
Speaker 1: Yeah, it is one more for you, because it's something

989
00:52:06,719 --> 00:52:10,400
Speaker 1: I've said to my daughter, since you're both you're into

990
00:52:10,400 --> 00:52:14,600
Speaker 1: science on this planet and in outer space. Do we

991
00:52:14,680 --> 00:52:20,000
Speaker 1: know more about our solar system or our oceans? There's

992
00:52:20,040 --> 00:52:22,759
Speaker 1: been this idea that we actually may not know as

993
00:52:22,840 --> 00:52:24,400
Speaker 1: much about our oceans as we think we do.

994
00:52:24,920 --> 00:52:27,680
Speaker 3: Yeah. No, I think that's a tough one for me

995
00:52:27,760 --> 00:52:30,799
Speaker 3: to answer. There's certainly a lot of undiscovered country in

996
00:52:30,840 --> 00:52:34,799
Speaker 3: our oceans as well as the Solar system. I do

997
00:52:34,880 --> 00:52:38,880
Speaker 3: think we're more actively exploring the Solar system and have

998
00:52:38,960 --> 00:52:41,600
Speaker 3: some pretty interesting missions that are in the works, are

999
00:52:41,600 --> 00:52:44,760
Speaker 3: just flying to interesting places. So I think we've probably

1000
00:52:44,800 --> 00:52:47,799
Speaker 3: explored more of the Solar System than the oceans. But

1001
00:52:48,000 --> 00:52:50,560
Speaker 3: I also think there's probably more things to be discovered.

1002
00:52:51,640 --> 00:52:55,120
Speaker 3: As we talked about beneath the ice on Europa, we're

1003
00:52:55,160 --> 00:52:58,480
Speaker 3: sending a really cool mission to fly across the Saturn Titans.

1004
00:52:58,560 --> 00:53:00,920
Speaker 3: There's lots of things to discover, whereas I don't think

1005
00:53:00,960 --> 00:53:04,880
Speaker 3: we're going to discover you know, super large new species

1006
00:53:04,880 --> 00:53:06,560
Speaker 3: as the part of the ocean, although I mean I

1007
00:53:06,560 --> 00:53:06,960
Speaker 3: don't know.

1008
00:53:06,960 --> 00:53:09,480
Speaker 1: No, But is there is there ocean exploration that would

1009
00:53:09,520 --> 00:53:14,160
Speaker 1: help with you know, sort of weather history, which then

1010
00:53:14,520 --> 00:53:16,279
Speaker 1: in turn would help with weather forecasting.

1011
00:53:16,680 --> 00:53:22,080
Speaker 3: So it's a great field called paleo tem pestology, which looks.

1012
00:53:22,040 --> 00:53:27,520
Speaker 1: My daughter's favorite professor at Miami is a palaeontologist weather climate.

1013
00:53:27,600 --> 00:53:29,920
Speaker 1: I forget what he called himself. But yes, in this field,

1014
00:53:30,120 --> 00:53:31,000
Speaker 1: it's fascinating.

1015
00:53:31,160 --> 00:53:33,680
Speaker 3: It is fascinating what you can learn by going out

1016
00:53:33,680 --> 00:53:38,040
Speaker 3: and studying the planet, and it just it's it's all beneficial.

1017
00:53:38,640 --> 00:53:41,799
Speaker 1: Yeah, uh, Eric, this is great. It was really great

1018
00:53:41,840 --> 00:53:43,319
Speaker 1: to get to know you as as you see, I'm

1019
00:53:43,360 --> 00:53:47,160
Speaker 1: sort of a junkie who doesn't know very much about it,

1020
00:53:47,320 --> 00:53:49,239
Speaker 1: but but it's desperate to want to know more.

1021
00:53:49,360 --> 00:53:51,840
Speaker 2: And and uh, am.

1022
00:53:51,640 --> 00:53:56,359
Speaker 1: I do you hate the for all mankind references? And

1023
00:53:56,400 --> 00:53:58,319
Speaker 1: when people like me ask you those questions or do

1024
00:53:58,360 --> 00:54:02,399
Speaker 1: you find that that show is exal healthy for your beat?

1025
00:54:02,640 --> 00:54:06,160
Speaker 1: Because I say this in that I hate the West Wing. Okay,

1026
00:54:06,360 --> 00:54:08,839
Speaker 1: I can't stand when people say to me, how come

1027
00:54:08,880 --> 00:54:09,839
Speaker 1: this is it like the West Way?

1028
00:54:09,920 --> 00:54:11,439
Speaker 2: God damn it. That's not the way it works.

1029
00:54:11,440 --> 00:54:14,520
Speaker 1: And yet here I am taking a fantasy TV show

1030
00:54:14,760 --> 00:54:16,359
Speaker 1: and trying to apply it to the real world.

1031
00:54:16,400 --> 00:54:18,480
Speaker 2: So I'm curious your reaction on that.

1032
00:54:18,560 --> 00:54:20,239
Speaker 3: So first of all, I say, what about VP? Does

1033
00:54:20,280 --> 00:54:21,840
Speaker 3: that more accurately portray.

1034
00:54:21,520 --> 00:54:22,800
Speaker 2: Well, VIEP is more accurate?

1035
00:54:22,880 --> 00:54:25,359
Speaker 1: Yes, that is the more correct version of how our

1036
00:54:25,400 --> 00:54:26,840
Speaker 1: share really works.

1037
00:54:26,920 --> 00:54:30,080
Speaker 3: Yes, my favorite show about to White House Politics. So

1038
00:54:30,200 --> 00:54:33,759
Speaker 3: I would say I like it because I think for

1039
00:54:33,880 --> 00:54:38,440
Speaker 3: all mankind does. One of the technical consultants is Garrett Reesman,

1040
00:54:38,560 --> 00:54:41,480
Speaker 3: a former astronauts friend of mine. He does a great

1041
00:54:41,520 --> 00:54:43,200
Speaker 3: job sort of trying to keep it real. And I

1042
00:54:43,200 --> 00:54:47,759
Speaker 3: think anything that increases public interest and exploration. I mean space,

1043
00:54:47,760 --> 00:54:49,480
Speaker 3: At the end of the day, everyone's kind of interested,

1044
00:54:49,520 --> 00:54:51,200
Speaker 3: but it's kind of like a mile wide and an

1045
00:54:51,239 --> 00:54:53,440
Speaker 3: inch deep, and so anything that sort of deepens that

1046
00:54:53,480 --> 00:54:54,960
Speaker 3: interest is valuable to me.

1047
00:54:55,760 --> 00:54:58,319
Speaker 1: Well, look, I'm glad to hear that on the space side,

1048
00:54:58,360 --> 00:55:01,080
Speaker 1: because I was really impressed at how they handled the politics,

1049
00:55:01,440 --> 00:55:05,480
Speaker 1: the alternative history there they were. They made some they

1050
00:55:05,520 --> 00:55:08,040
Speaker 1: made turns of who would win, who would lose, and

1051
00:55:08,080 --> 00:55:09,719
Speaker 1: all this stuff, and they were very clever about it

1052
00:55:09,760 --> 00:55:13,799
Speaker 1: that wasn't unrealistic based on different forks in the road.

1053
00:55:13,840 --> 00:55:16,040
Speaker 1: So I'm glad to know that that as a as

1054
00:55:16,040 --> 00:55:17,919
Speaker 1: on the on the space side and the technical side,

1055
00:55:17,920 --> 00:55:19,719
Speaker 1: that they they tried to stay.

1056
00:55:21,160 --> 00:55:24,200
Speaker 2: I guess within within the possible they did.

1057
00:55:24,200 --> 00:55:26,520
Speaker 3: I think it was an attempt to make a realistic

1058
00:55:26,920 --> 00:55:27,640
Speaker 3: fictional show.

1059
00:55:27,920 --> 00:55:31,239
Speaker 1: Yeah, and no, it did, and it made a lot

1060
00:55:31,239 --> 00:55:33,240
Speaker 1: of sense if if you know, if we had lost

1061
00:55:33,280 --> 00:55:37,000
Speaker 1: to the Soviets, I do believe we would have acted, well,

1062
00:55:37,160 --> 00:55:38,560
Speaker 1: we're not going to lose anything else.

1063
00:55:38,640 --> 00:55:40,320
Speaker 2: Let's throw a bit more resources.

1064
00:55:40,360 --> 00:55:44,000
Speaker 1: That is that is uh the American way anyway, Eric Berger,

1065
00:55:44,000 --> 00:55:44,600
Speaker 1: this was terrific.

1066
00:55:44,600 --> 00:55:45,239
Speaker 2: Thanks for your time.

1067
00:55:45,520 --> 00:55:46,719
Speaker 3: Thank you you got it.