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Speaker 1: Hi everyone, This is Lee Clasgow when We're Talking Transports.

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Speaker 1: Welcome to Bloomberg Intelligence Talking Transports podcast. I'm your host,

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Speaker 1: Lee Klaskow, Senior Freight, Transportation and Logistics Analysts at Bloomberg Intelligence,

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg's end house research arm of almost five hundred analysts

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Speaker 1: and strategists around the globe. Before diving in a little

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Speaker 1: public service announcement, your support is instrumental to keep bringing

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Speaker 1: great guests and conversations to you, our listeners.

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Speaker 2: And we use your support.

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Speaker 1: So please, if you enjoyed this podcast, share it, like

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Speaker 1: it and leave a comment. Also, if you have any

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Speaker 1: ideas for a future episode or just want to talk transports,

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Speaker 1: please hit me up on the Bloomberg terminal, on LinkedIn

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Speaker 1: or on Twitter at logistics Late. Now on to our episode. Today,

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Speaker 1: we're gonna do something a little different. This episode will

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Speaker 1: be co hosted Bye bye Bloomberg Intelligence colleague and fellow

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Speaker 1: Ithaca College alum, Chris Chillino. Chris is Bloomberg Intelligence senior

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Speaker 1: miss Machinery analysts, and our guest today is Tim Denouer,

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Speaker 1: Vice president and senior Analysts at ACT Research, a provider

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Speaker 1: of research and analysis of the commercial vehicle and transportation sectors.

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Speaker 1: I've known Tim for the better part of twenty years

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Speaker 1: from our time when we overlapped at Crudential Equity Group.

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Speaker 1: Tim lead's transportation research and authors ACT Freight Forecasts, US.

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Speaker 3: Rate and Volume Outlook. His work provides critical insights into

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Speaker 3: pricing and volume trends across truckload LTL and intermobile markets.

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Speaker 3: Tim joined ACT in twenty seventeen after fifteen years in

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Speaker 3: equity research, including rules at Wolf Research and Ballyasny Asset Management.

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Speaker 3: He also analyzes commercial vehicle demand and alternative power trains.

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Speaker 3: He owns a BBA in Economics and finance from James

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Speaker 3: Madison University. So Go Dukes, Welcome to the podcast.

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Speaker 4: Tim, How you doing very good?

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Speaker 3: Thanks for having me Lee, It's great to see you.

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Speaker 1: So just you know, I gave a little introduction about

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Speaker 1: what ACT Research is all about. If you can provide

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Speaker 1: a lot more details, that'd be fantastic.

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Speaker 2: Before we get into the meat and bones. Yeah.

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Speaker 4: Sure. We are an industry consultancy focused on the commercial

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Speaker 4: vehicle markets and specializing in data analysis and forecasting, specifically

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Speaker 4: with the classes five through eight vehicle markets, sales and production,

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Speaker 4: and that type of thing. We focus a lot on

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Speaker 4: freight rates and volumes and use truck prices to name

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Speaker 4: a few things we're into.

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Speaker 1: Right, So before we go into, you know, the truck

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Speaker 1: oem market, can you just give us a backdrop of

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Speaker 1: where you're seeing the freight markets right now, because you know,

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Speaker 1: I don't know about you. It's difficult times to kind

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Speaker 1: of predict where demand is going.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, absolutely, it's it's we're in the third year of

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Speaker 4: a freight recession in the four higher trucking markets that

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Speaker 4: does not seem like it's going to end too quickly.

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Speaker 4: We think that it's going to last, you know, a

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Speaker 4: bit longer due to tariffs, But I'd say we have

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Speaker 4: a little bit of a different view on why it's

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Speaker 4: lasted as long as it has. We think the supply

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Speaker 4: side is a big piece of the puzzle, and the

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Speaker 4: private fleets, which represent a little bit more than half

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Speaker 4: of the tractors on the highway, have grown pretty significantly

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Speaker 4: in the past five years since the pandemic, and we

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Speaker 4: think that's one of the reasons that this freight recession

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Speaker 4: is just dragging off.

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Speaker 1: Right, And for those listening, private fleets so Walmart owns

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Speaker 1: and operates their own trucks. They also use carriers like

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Speaker 1: JB Hun and Werner. So that's the for higher market.

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Speaker 1: So just for those that are uncertain, So, are you

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Speaker 1: expecting rates to move significantly higher from here, whether it's

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Speaker 1: spot market or contractual market.

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Speaker 4: Not for a while. I think it's it's gonna be

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Speaker 4: a little bit tough sledding in the spot market. We're

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Speaker 4: still we saw a decent increase in the road check

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Speaker 4: week in mid May, but pretty soft still coming out

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Speaker 4: of that in terms of there's there's just weakening demand

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Speaker 4: in the short term. We do think there's gonna be

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Speaker 4: an improvement in the third quarter from a demand perspective,

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Speaker 4: but I think that's that's gonna be relatively short lived.

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Speaker 4: And the higher tariffs are have reduced our economic outlook

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Speaker 4: fairly considerably over the past several months.

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Speaker 1: And do you guys have do you guys have a

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Speaker 1: call on like where you see rates like do you

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Speaker 1: see them increasing mid single digits this year?

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Speaker 2: Down mid single digits? Do you guys have it? Do

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Speaker 2: you guys put anything out there like that? Oh?

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Speaker 4: Absolutely? The current number for this year is one percent?

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Speaker 4: Is our okay? Forecasts for contract rates for twenty twenty five.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, okay, gotcha, all right?

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Speaker 1: That that is probably I would say on on the

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Speaker 1: bear side from things that I've heard, but you know,

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Speaker 1: it's it's hard to argue against it as well.

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Speaker 2: So with all that, so, you know, I know a

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Speaker 2: lot of act research. Some of the bread and butter

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Speaker 2: is on the OEM side.

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Speaker 1: Can you talk about, you know, what your your outlook

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Speaker 1: for the North American Class eight market is in terms

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Speaker 1: of production for this year and maybe next year.

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Speaker 4: Sure. Absolutely, it has come down fairly considerably in the

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Speaker 4: past several months. And I'll talk a little bit more

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Speaker 4: directionally than you know, absolute numbers, but we have taken

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Speaker 4: about fifty thousand units out of the forecast in the

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Speaker 4: past three or four months because of the higher costs

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Speaker 4: associated with tariffs.

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Speaker 1: Hey, Tim, could you just say, like, so fifty thousand

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Speaker 1: out of like what's the what's the typical market in

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Speaker 1: North America?

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Speaker 4: Roughly you say three hundred thousand, okay, And so that

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Speaker 4: that downward directions has really been driven by, let's call it,

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Speaker 4: a paralysis of decision making in the past couple of months,

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Speaker 4: because it's become really difficult to order a vehicle when

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Speaker 4: we don't really know what the tariffs are going to

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Speaker 4: be at the end of the day, there's still a

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Speaker 4: number of questions and terms of how the teriffs will

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Speaker 4: shake out, and the fleets clearly don't like that uncertainty,

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Speaker 4: and so order activity has you know, I will say

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Speaker 4: ground to a halt, but it's it's down significantly.

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Speaker 5: Gotcha and Tim speaking of this order paralysis, I mean,

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Speaker 5: I think we're down about thirty percent year to date

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Speaker 5: on class state orders here in North America. I guess,

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Speaker 5: how are those orders tracking relative to your expectations, just

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Speaker 5: given the uncertainty out there with tariffs and the regulatory backdrop.

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Speaker 5: And I guess when do you think we could begin

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Speaker 5: to see a recovery in orders?

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Speaker 4: Yeah? Good question. So I would say that over the

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Speaker 4: past year or so, orders have sort of defied our

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Speaker 4: expectations to the high side. And to some extent it

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Speaker 4: goes back to that private fleet theme that already touched on,

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Speaker 4: and that really led to more equipment manufacturing than the

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Speaker 4: freight cycle would have justified, even going back to twenty

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Speaker 4: twenty three, twenty four, And so I would say owners,

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Speaker 4: while they've come down a lot this year, it's sort

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Speaker 4: of realigned with our expectations with what the freight cycle

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Speaker 4: really needs, and so that's actually a constructive thing for

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Speaker 4: moving the cycle forward. Obviously, it's not great from a

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Speaker 4: manufacturing perspective, because you know, all of the major manufacturers

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Speaker 4: have have announced layoffs in the past few months. But

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Speaker 4: this is a normal part of the cycle, and so

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Speaker 4: again it's not too unexpected. What has been surprising in

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Speaker 4: the order book in the past six months or so

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Speaker 4: is the day cabs have come down relative to sleepers

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Speaker 4: within the tractor orders. And while it's not a perfect

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Speaker 4: one for one, because a fair number of four hire

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Speaker 4: fleets do use daycabs, it is mostly a private fleet

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Speaker 4: equipment type, and so if we use daycabs as a

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Speaker 4: proxy for private fleets, it looks to us like they

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Speaker 4: are are really dialing back in their order activity, even

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Speaker 4: more so than in the sleeper market, which is the remainder.

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Speaker 4: So that's that's interesting, and it does suggest the cycle

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Speaker 4: is starting to turn.

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Speaker 2: Oh, that's interesting.

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Speaker 5: Are there other pockets of the truck market that are

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Speaker 5: holding up maybe better than you anticipated this year? And

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Speaker 5: then maybe conversely on the flip side, where's the weakness

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Speaker 5: most pronounced?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, it's a good question and I think you could

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Speaker 4: almost answer the same question. I mean, certainly that the

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Speaker 4: weakness has been pronounced in the truckload market for for

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Speaker 4: a while now, but the vocational part of the class

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Speaker 4: eight market, which doesn't get quite as much attention, which is,

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Speaker 4: you know, class eight straight trucks, which breaks down to

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Speaker 4: a lot of different vehicle types. It's dump trucks and

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Speaker 4: cement trucks and refuse trucks and those those types of

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Speaker 4: things that in general that that part of the market

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Speaker 4: had had held up really well over the past year

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Speaker 4: or so, as the tractor markets orded to cycle down.

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Speaker 4: What's changing there? I think there's been some some new

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Speaker 4: regulatory uncertainty, and where demand had been really strong for

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Speaker 4: vocational vehicles, that does seem to be changing a bit

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Speaker 4: as well in the past few months.

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Speaker 5: Okay, great, And what about the outlook for medium duty trucks?

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Speaker 5: Do you expect demand there to hold up better than

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Speaker 5: the heavy truck side really, not only this year but

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Speaker 5: into next year as well.

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Speaker 4: Medium duty is an interesting case where there is still

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Speaker 4: some degree of supply chain constraint at the bodybuilder level,

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Speaker 4: and we still have really elevated inventories for the on

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Speaker 4: the cap and jazzy side. They're waiting their their bodies

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Speaker 4: and so that's been a limiting factor. And we do

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Speaker 4: think the overall demanded medium duties is headed lower as

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Speaker 4: well because similar factors to the heavy heavy duty market,

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Speaker 4: largely these higher costs of vehicles and the uncertainty around

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Speaker 4: the tariffs. So I do think that's going to you know,

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Speaker 4: drive a considerable reduction in medium duty production. And they

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Speaker 4: haven't asked about it yet, but if you want to

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Speaker 4: talk about trailers as well, we cover that market, and

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Speaker 4: that markets has had a few decent mounts of orders

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Speaker 4: this year, but it was obviously going to be under

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Speaker 4: a lot of pressure as well because they're made mostly

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Speaker 4: of steel and aluminum.

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Speaker 1: So you know, you bentioned tariffs a little bit earlier.

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Speaker 1: So the trucks that are running on the roads in

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Speaker 1: North America are they made here? Are they just put

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Speaker 1: together here and they're using parts from overseas? Like, how

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Speaker 1: harder are the truck OEMs potentially going to get hit

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Speaker 1: from the tariffs?

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Speaker 4: Yeah? Good question. They need to be roughly two thirds.

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Speaker 4: I mean the numbers vary from sixty to seventy five

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Speaker 4: percent to be usmc A compliant and so there is

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Speaker 4: a fair amount of parts that come into to the

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Speaker 4: US that support the supply chain that uh, you know,

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Speaker 4: there's there's a lot of parts that are that are

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Speaker 4: sourced in in Europe and other places that uh, you know,

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Speaker 4: we talk a lot about our you know, connection to Mexico,

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Speaker 4: which is which I'll get to in a sect and

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Speaker 4: it's it's important, but it's also important to point out

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Speaker 4: that we've got a very close relationship with Europe and

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Speaker 4: there's a fair amount of you know, castings and those

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Speaker 4: kinds of things, you know, second and third tiers of

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Speaker 4: the supply chains that that we don't see, you know,

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Speaker 4: too directly that that you know, come from the lowest

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Speaker 4: cost places. And and and the we hear anecdotes from

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Speaker 4: ship from suppliers that uh, you know point out that

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Speaker 4: they have worked really hard to you know, supply their

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Speaker 4: parts at from the lowest cost places. Uh. And and

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Speaker 4: so moving things back to the US is is going

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Speaker 4: to be very expensive, is the general theme that that

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Speaker 4: we hear. Uh. And so that's that's not gonna be easy.

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Speaker 4: But to answer your question, to come back to Mexico,

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Speaker 4: thirty four percent of the Class eight vehicles that were

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Speaker 4: sold in the US last year were assembled in Mexico,

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Speaker 4: and there is a bit of a mismatch at the

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Speaker 4: moment from a tariff perspective because those vehicles and this

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Speaker 4: is part of the Section two thirty two investigation that's

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Speaker 4: going on, but those vehicles will will end up with

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Speaker 4: a much lower tariff. Man I think, aside from steel

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Speaker 4: and liminum, there's not going to be very much that

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Speaker 4: those things are going to face because they're being assembled

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Speaker 4: in Mexico, whereas the remainder, which is being assembled in

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Speaker 4: the US is going to see those those reciprocal tariffs

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Speaker 4: and a number of other tariffs that have been enacted.

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Speaker 4: And so that the Class eight trucks that are being

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Speaker 4: assembled in the US are being currently put at a

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Speaker 4: competitive disadvantage to those they're built in Mexico.

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Speaker 2: Is there one OEM that's less exposed who tariffs versus

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Speaker 2: it's peers.

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Speaker 4: I think there's a significant exposure across the board, and

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Speaker 4: I think I think the that disadvantage that I just

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Speaker 4: talked to is likely to be corrected all right.

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Speaker 1: And is the impact felt similarly on trailers? Like where

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Speaker 1: trailers manufactured, they are they imported like containers.

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Speaker 4: Or no actually, the trailer supply chain is still very

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Speaker 4: very much domestic. There are some some foreign manufacturers who

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Speaker 4: bring in some non US steal in some cases and

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Speaker 4: that's going to put them at a disadvantage. But there

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Speaker 4: are also some very very domestic trailer supply chains that

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Speaker 4: most of it is. You know, it's it's a bit

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Speaker 4: more fragmented than the truck market. There's there's more sort

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Speaker 4: of local players out there, including in Canada and Mexico.

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Speaker 5: So Tim, maybe circling back on your Section two thirty

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Speaker 5: two comments, and really for those of you unaware that

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Speaker 5: the US Department of Commerce announced back in ABE a

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Speaker 5: new Section two thirty two investigation into the impact of

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Speaker 5: heavy and medium duty trucks as well as truck parts

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Speaker 5: and components to really assess their impact on national security.

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Speaker 5: The comment period ended, I believe May sixteenth, and we're

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Speaker 5: kind of now in this waiting period just to figure

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Speaker 5: out what the outcome is going to be here. I guess,

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Speaker 5: what are your expectations coming out of this and really

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Speaker 5: how could this impact the heavy truck markets moving forward?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I think, I mean your guess is as good

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Speaker 4: as mine in terms of when we see a decision

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Speaker 4: you know, things have been happening faster than I think

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Speaker 4: most people expected in this administration. So it could take

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Speaker 4: I think two hundred and seventy days plus ninety days,

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Speaker 4: but I think we're expecting something perhaps sooner, and I think,

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Speaker 4: like I just described what the outcome is likely to add,

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Speaker 4: add even more to the cost of of these m

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Speaker 4: duty trucks.

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Speaker 5: Right, Yeah, it's not just the section two thirty two. Right,

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Speaker 5: you talked earlier about steel and aluminum. We got the

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Speaker 5: baseline ten percent tariffs, We could get into some of

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Speaker 5: the regulatory changes going on or potential regulatory changes. All

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Speaker 5: of this seems to equate to higher truck prices moving forward.

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Speaker 5: Do you have a sense as to, you know, what

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Speaker 5: the price increase for a Class eight truck may look

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Speaker 5: like if we look out maybe over the next twelve months,

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Speaker 5: Like how much is of the cost how much is

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Speaker 5: that cost of the vehicle going to go up or

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Speaker 5: at least potentially due to you know, all these moving pieces.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, that's a good question. I think what we're hearing

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Speaker 4: from the dealer channel so far is it's a low

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Speaker 4: single digit percentage, it's two or three percent. I think

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Speaker 4: at the moment is our best sort of guess just

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Speaker 4: from what we hear, and you can certainly get there

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Speaker 4: from just understanding how much steel aluminum is in these vehicles,

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Speaker 4: but beyond that, it hasn't been too much just yet.

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Speaker 4: I think one of the things that's making it hard

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Speaker 4: for fleets to make decisions right now is the fact

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Speaker 4: that the tariffs could come back and could increase significantly,

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Speaker 4: and the question is who's going to pay for that,

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Speaker 4: and that's a difficult question for for both the fleets

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Speaker 4: and the manufacturers right now. It's worth stepping back for

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Speaker 4: a second to point out, and you rightly point out this,

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Speaker 4: this is on parts as well. So the aftermarket where

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Speaker 4: fleets you need to go to to maintain their vehicles,

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Speaker 4: that's going to face some pretty significant price increases as

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Speaker 4: well for parts in that channel. And so that's it's

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Speaker 4: all gonna make it, you know, tougher for fleets to

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Speaker 4: to continue to operate, and so it's going to continue

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Speaker 4: to tighten to reduce capacity and eventually we will get

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Speaker 4: to a tighter supply demand balance. So this all is,

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Speaker 4: you know, eventually going to be constructive for the fleets,

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Speaker 4: but it's gonna be rough in the short term. In

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Speaker 4: terms of how much could it add to the price

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Speaker 4: of the vehicle. I mean, we've done some analysis that

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Speaker 4: suggest I mean, if we're talking about a twenty five

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Speaker 4: percent tariff thirty four percent of the vehicle's manufactured, just

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Speaker 4: for example, you can get to a double digit number

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Speaker 4: pretty quickly.

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Speaker 1: You know, you're mentioning earlier the you know, growth in

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Speaker 1: private fleets and kind of that had an impact of

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Speaker 1: weighing on rate. I guess we didn't really explore like

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Speaker 1: what was driving that. Do you do you have any

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Speaker 1: sense of what was driving the growth in private fleets? Yeah,

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Speaker 1: great question, and I did Glass over that. There's a

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Speaker 1: lot in this answer.

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Speaker 4: I think there's there's both a backward looking and a

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Speaker 4: forward looking aspect to it. From a backward looking perspective,

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Speaker 4: I think the sort of loss of supply chain control

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Speaker 4: that happened during the pandemic and the tightness of capacity

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Speaker 4: after the pandemic, during the chip shortage, that the real

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Speaker 4: really chapped a lot of supply chain managers and and

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Speaker 4: I think, you know that really motivated people to for

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Speaker 4: the first time in my career of watching freight, to

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Speaker 4: to start insourcing free, which has historically been been more outsourced.

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Speaker 4: It has been at the really thirty year trend before

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Speaker 4: the past five years, and so I think the backward

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Speaker 4: looking trend was definitely supply chain control and cost costs

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Speaker 4: certainly spiked during the pandemic and then post pandemic. I

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Speaker 4: think there's been a pretty considerable surge in cargo theft

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Speaker 4: that has been a pretty big issue for most shippers.

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Speaker 4: I've talked to some shippers who shipped low value stuff

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Speaker 4: who don't really care if they get a load stolen

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Speaker 4: here or there, but most shippers care quite a lot.

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Speaker 4: So I think it's a bunch of things. But looking forward,

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Speaker 4: I think one of the main reasons in the past

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Speaker 4: two years really has been that respect that new truck

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Speaker 4: prices were going to go up significantly in twenty twenty

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Speaker 4: seven because of the low Knox regulations from the EPA,

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Speaker 4: which are now in question.

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Speaker 1: Right And for those that are interested in learning more

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Speaker 1: about cargo theft, we did an episode a couple of

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Speaker 1: weeks ago with Highway's chief commercial officers, So I'd suggest

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Speaker 1: folks going back to listening to that, Yeah, Tim.

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Speaker 5: Maybe pulling on that thread with the new new regulations

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Speaker 5: a little bit more here. So the heavy truck industry

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Speaker 5: obviously with looking at new regulations from the EPA coming

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Speaker 5: in twenty twenty seven to lower the NOOX emissions from

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Speaker 5: the vehicle. In addition to the more stringent emissions rules,

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Speaker 5: OEMs are also going to be faced with that extended

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Speaker 5: warranty period, So warranty coverage was going to go up

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Speaker 5: to about four hundred and fifty thousand miles from about

348
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Speaker 5: one hundred thousand today. The expectation was that we were

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Speaker 5: going to see this big pre buy here in the

350
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Speaker 5: back half of twenty five and then all throughout twenty six. However,

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Speaker 5: as you alluded to in March, the EPA announced that

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Speaker 5: it's going to reconsider those twenty twenty seven emission standards.

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Speaker 5: If you could get out your crystal ball, like, what

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Speaker 5: do you think is the most likely outcome here? I mean,

355
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Speaker 5: do we get a full repeal, do we get a

356
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Speaker 5: partial repeal, does it stay intact? And really how does

357
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Speaker 5: that kind of influence your thinking around the magnitude and

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Speaker 5: duration of a potential pre buy.

359
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Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean not to you know, crystal ball is

360
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Speaker 4: a good, good analogy, but to put it, if you

361
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Speaker 4: want to put it in bedding terms, my money would

362
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Speaker 4: be on the ATA. I think the ATA is, if

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Speaker 4: we're looking at the lobbying organizations, is you know, kind

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Speaker 4: of the leader. And there's a number of good lobbyists

365
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Speaker 4: in the trucking industry, but I feel like they are

366
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Speaker 4: are pretty influential, and they've put out some interesting information

367
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Speaker 4: that suggests that they support this sort of middle way,

368
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Speaker 4: if you will. That doesn't scrap the rule entirely, because

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Speaker 4: you know, let's be honest, there's been hundreds of millions of

370
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Speaker 4: dollars invested by the truck manufacturers now a lot the

371
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Speaker 4: average trucker may not care about those costs and may

372
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Speaker 4: not want to pay the higher TRUGT price no matter what.

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Speaker 4: But I think the A T A actually does and

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Speaker 4: this is an interesting debate that we've been having UH

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Speaker 4: for for some time. Is I think the A T

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Speaker 4: eight does understand that those better engines are going to

377
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Speaker 4: raise the barriers to entry in the industry and ultimately

378
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Speaker 4: be good for industry returns. I think that they understand that,

379
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Speaker 4: and there you know, there's there's obviously some arguments that

380
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Speaker 4: they've done some things over time that that disagree with that.

381
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Speaker 4: But but I think we'll end up with a rule

382
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Speaker 4: that that scraps the warranty and useful life provisions, but

383
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Speaker 4: but keeps those lower notch rules in place. Uh. And

384
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Speaker 4: I think that's that seems like the most likely outcome.

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Speaker 1: Uh.

386
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Speaker 4: Now, there's still I would say, say, a pretty dark

387
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Speaker 4: good chance as well, that just given the deregulatory zeal

388
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Speaker 4: of the new administration, that you know, there's a chance

389
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Speaker 4: that the rules go away entirely. I think that's very

390
00:22:01,640 --> 00:22:04,359
Speaker 4: low probability of this. I mean, there's still some, but

391
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Speaker 4: I also think it's very low probability that the rule

392
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Speaker 4: survives as it's written.

393
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Speaker 5: And do you have any sense on timing when we

394
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Speaker 5: potentially could hear something?

395
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Speaker 4: Yeah, great question, that is I don't. And it's one

396
00:22:18,320 --> 00:22:21,479
Speaker 4: of those things that is driving such uncertainty with with

397
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Speaker 4: you know, the industry, because you know, in theory, we

398
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Speaker 4: may not know until we get towards twenty twenty seven

399
00:22:30,680 --> 00:22:32,560
Speaker 4: or even you know, late twenty six or early twenty seven.

400
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Speaker 4: So how do you plan in that environment? I would

401
00:22:34,240 --> 00:22:38,000
Speaker 4: actually argue that again, like I said earlier, the private

402
00:22:38,040 --> 00:22:40,160
Speaker 4: fleets have been sort of pre buying for the last

403
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Speaker 4: two years, and so while on our forecast for this year,

404
00:22:45,960 --> 00:22:49,440
Speaker 4: there's actually a little bit of an underbuy given where

405
00:22:49,600 --> 00:22:52,239
Speaker 4: you know, sales and orders are right now, and so

406
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Speaker 4: they're sort of giving back some of that pre buy.

407
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Speaker 4: We still think there's going to be a little bit

408
00:22:55,480 --> 00:22:58,400
Speaker 4: of pre buying going on next year, because you're still

409
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Speaker 4: going to be facing you know, some small I mean

410
00:23:02,720 --> 00:23:05,960
Speaker 4: not a not a tiny fraction, but probably thirty or

411
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Speaker 4: forty percent of the price increase that they were expecting previously.

412
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Speaker 1: So what is that, So that thirty forty percent of

413
00:23:13,000 --> 00:23:16,080
Speaker 1: the price increase that they expect previously, what is that

414
00:23:16,080 --> 00:23:18,479
Speaker 1: in percentages or dollars for the total increase?

415
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Speaker 4: The prior estimates were twenty to twenty five thousand dollars, Okay, yeah,

416
00:23:22,560 --> 00:23:25,400
Speaker 4: and so it's going to be you know something probably

417
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Speaker 4: around ten I think if if we go this sort

418
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Speaker 4: of middle route, and that is enough probably to drive

419
00:23:33,560 --> 00:23:37,239
Speaker 4: some pre buy. But the freight industry has been through

420
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Speaker 4: a rough couple of years. Profits are under a lot

421
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Speaker 4: of pressure. The publicly traded truckload fleet just put up

422
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Speaker 4: their lowest margin in fifteen years in the first quarter

423
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Speaker 4: and U and so there's not a lot of cash

424
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Speaker 4: to pre buy.

425
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Speaker 1: Right and some of the you know, the margins on

426
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Speaker 1: the truckload side has been impacted by the use truck market.

427
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Speaker 2: What's your outlook on the use truck market. We're going

428
00:23:57,680 --> 00:23:59,760
Speaker 2: to see prices increase from here, Yeah, that's.

429
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Speaker 4: An interest in question. The used truck market has seen

430
00:24:03,840 --> 00:24:08,280
Speaker 4: some very interesting signs of life this year, prerequently at

431
00:24:08,320 --> 00:24:11,440
Speaker 4: auction and also on the wholesale side. Not as much

432
00:24:11,440 --> 00:24:15,520
Speaker 4: on retail yet, but the auction and wholesale markets tend

433
00:24:15,520 --> 00:24:20,000
Speaker 4: to lead retail UH And in our view, the tariffs

434
00:24:20,400 --> 00:24:22,760
Speaker 4: and the tariff pricing increases, which you know, like I said,

435
00:24:22,800 --> 00:24:25,040
Speaker 4: are probably only two or three percent for new trucks.

436
00:24:25,440 --> 00:24:28,080
Speaker 4: If you take a used truck, which is you know,

437
00:24:28,119 --> 00:24:29,879
Speaker 4: something like half of the value of the new truck,

438
00:24:31,800 --> 00:24:36,080
Speaker 4: the pricing increase actually could be larger in percentage terms

439
00:24:36,080 --> 00:24:39,240
Speaker 4: because because a lot of that tariff, if the most

440
00:24:39,240 --> 00:24:42,280
Speaker 4: competitive product just went up, you know, by four or

441
00:24:42,320 --> 00:24:46,199
Speaker 4: five thousand dollars, I would say a fair proportion of that,

442
00:24:46,320 --> 00:24:47,840
Speaker 4: I don't know what the number is, but a fair

443
00:24:47,880 --> 00:24:50,520
Speaker 4: proportion of that probably does flow directly through into the

444
00:24:50,560 --> 00:24:53,359
Speaker 4: into the used truck market. And that I think is

445
00:24:53,359 --> 00:25:00,040
Speaker 4: is it's sort of motivating some activity. It's also a

446
00:25:00,160 --> 00:25:02,600
Speaker 4: normal part of the cycle for for used truck prices

447
00:25:02,640 --> 00:25:04,480
Speaker 4: to start to come up. We've we've had a couple

448
00:25:04,520 --> 00:25:07,919
Speaker 4: of very very rough years where we're at all time lows,

449
00:25:07,960 --> 00:25:10,719
Speaker 4: and in real terms, it has a percentage of new

450
00:25:10,760 --> 00:25:13,919
Speaker 4: truck prices and so so U S trut prices are

451
00:25:13,960 --> 00:25:17,160
Speaker 4: at pretty pretty depressed levels and and you know, are

452
00:25:17,160 --> 00:25:19,040
Speaker 4: we're not expecting them to come up too much, but

453
00:25:19,400 --> 00:25:23,119
Speaker 4: but there's definitely been some uh, some interesting activity in

454
00:25:23,119 --> 00:25:23,880
Speaker 4: the last couple of months.

455
00:25:24,320 --> 00:25:26,639
Speaker 1: Yeah, and you mentioned that, you know, we've been in

456
00:25:26,680 --> 00:25:29,080
Speaker 1: a freight recession for quite some time. Is that really

457
00:25:29,119 --> 00:25:34,119
Speaker 1: what's driving the depressed prices. Yeah, I think so, uh

458
00:25:34,200 --> 00:25:34,600
Speaker 1: for sure.

459
00:25:34,680 --> 00:25:37,320
Speaker 4: And it's it's also to some extent, it's it's affected

460
00:25:37,359 --> 00:25:40,480
Speaker 4: by by new equipment production. And like I said, new

461
00:25:40,480 --> 00:25:43,679
Speaker 4: equipment production is starting to ramp down a little bit,

462
00:25:43,720 --> 00:25:48,840
Speaker 4: so that should have an inverse impact on unused truck prices,

463
00:25:49,280 --> 00:25:52,280
Speaker 4: and that that depressed use truct prices has partly been

464
00:25:52,359 --> 00:25:55,840
Speaker 4: because new truck production has really been quite strong in

465
00:25:55,840 --> 00:25:56,640
Speaker 4: the past couple of years.

466
00:25:56,800 --> 00:26:00,920
Speaker 5: Maybe going back to some of the regulatory changes outside

467
00:26:01,000 --> 00:26:05,040
Speaker 5: of the EPA twenty twenty seven Knox rules, are there

468
00:26:05,080 --> 00:26:09,080
Speaker 5: other regulations that you're watching or that you think are

469
00:26:09,160 --> 00:26:12,359
Speaker 5: really most at risk under this administration or could have

470
00:26:12,400 --> 00:26:15,000
Speaker 5: some kind of a you know, material impact on demand

471
00:26:15,080 --> 00:26:15,680
Speaker 5: for equipment.

472
00:26:17,200 --> 00:26:19,680
Speaker 4: That's a good question. I think the low knox ones

473
00:26:19,880 --> 00:26:23,800
Speaker 4: are of course the biggest. The GHG three, frankly, we

474
00:26:23,840 --> 00:26:25,919
Speaker 4: had that's sort of the next biggest, But we had,

475
00:26:25,920 --> 00:26:30,920
Speaker 4: frankly not really expected much to be enforced there even

476
00:26:30,960 --> 00:26:33,399
Speaker 4: before the election. If you go back to last summer

477
00:26:33,440 --> 00:26:38,880
Speaker 4: and the Supreme Court's Chevron rulings, which sort of reduced

478
00:26:39,320 --> 00:26:41,880
Speaker 4: the regulatory power of some of the agencies, it looked

479
00:26:41,920 --> 00:26:45,439
Speaker 4: like GG three was going to be really aggressively contested

480
00:26:46,040 --> 00:26:50,440
Speaker 4: under that law, even if the election had had gone

481
00:26:50,760 --> 00:26:53,080
Speaker 4: the other way. So frankly, we had never really built

482
00:26:53,080 --> 00:26:58,560
Speaker 4: that one into our our forecasting, and we're still not

483
00:26:58,720 --> 00:27:03,439
Speaker 4: going to because GC three, well, you know, low doxes

484
00:27:03,560 --> 00:27:07,359
Speaker 4: is a significant change. GC three is is very different

485
00:27:07,400 --> 00:27:10,440
Speaker 4: in the way, you know, it does sort of upend

486
00:27:10,880 --> 00:27:14,040
Speaker 4: the past forty years or so of a missions regulation

487
00:27:14,320 --> 00:27:17,919
Speaker 4: by by being much more aggressive on the carbon reduction

488
00:27:18,480 --> 00:27:23,480
Speaker 4: uh and tying that to basically like with vehicle targets

489
00:27:24,280 --> 00:27:27,160
Speaker 4: and and that that that was a pretty big change,

490
00:27:27,359 --> 00:27:32,119
Speaker 4: and so well, it didn't really change our thinking in

491
00:27:32,160 --> 00:27:35,000
Speaker 4: the past, you know a few months when the administration

492
00:27:35,119 --> 00:27:38,080
Speaker 4: came out and said that they were going to to

493
00:27:38,119 --> 00:27:40,760
Speaker 4: reevaluate that one as well. Yeah, that the likelihood of

494
00:27:40,760 --> 00:27:42,720
Speaker 4: that is still pretty low of that being enforced.

495
00:27:42,960 --> 00:27:44,720
Speaker 1: You know, you know, when you're when you're talking about

496
00:27:44,960 --> 00:27:47,080
Speaker 1: you know, lowering emissions, a lot of that's based on

497
00:27:47,160 --> 00:27:53,280
Speaker 1: new technologies that these OEMs develop. We would remiss if

498
00:27:53,320 --> 00:27:55,720
Speaker 1: we you know, we're talking about technology and then started

499
00:27:55,720 --> 00:27:58,120
Speaker 1: talking about evs or autonomous trucking.

500
00:27:59,200 --> 00:28:00,520
Speaker 2: Does ACT research have.

501
00:28:00,760 --> 00:28:03,399
Speaker 1: Uh, you know, any thoughts on you know, where EV's

502
00:28:03,440 --> 00:28:06,480
Speaker 1: are heading or where autonomous trucking h might be going.

503
00:28:07,320 --> 00:28:10,640
Speaker 4: Yeah. Absolutely, We've done a number of reports on both topics.

504
00:28:10,920 --> 00:28:15,200
Speaker 4: We actually have quarterly EV forecasting going. At this point,

505
00:28:15,760 --> 00:28:18,200
Speaker 4: it's you know, it's it's slow going in the heavy

506
00:28:18,240 --> 00:28:22,480
Speaker 4: duty markets. You know, there's there's some some decent momentum

507
00:28:22,480 --> 00:28:26,879
Speaker 4: in school buses, but you know, demand is you know,

508
00:28:26,880 --> 00:28:29,840
Speaker 4: there's still some pockets some private fleets in the heavy

509
00:28:29,920 --> 00:28:32,879
Speaker 4: duty market are working pretty hard on it. But but

510
00:28:33,000 --> 00:28:38,040
Speaker 4: broadly speaking, especially given the difficult financial conditions in the

511
00:28:38,040 --> 00:28:43,040
Speaker 4: trucking industry these days, broadly speaking, you know, electrification, it's

512
00:28:43,280 --> 00:28:44,160
Speaker 4: pretty slow going.

513
00:28:44,400 --> 00:28:47,080
Speaker 1: Have you guys rained in your your outlook for evs

514
00:28:47,440 --> 00:28:50,160
Speaker 1: because of the new administration, doesn't you know, seem so

515
00:28:50,400 --> 00:28:55,160
Speaker 1: uh focused on emissions or environmental stuff.

516
00:28:55,760 --> 00:28:59,360
Speaker 4: Yeah, it certainly has had a negative impact. And and

517
00:29:00,040 --> 00:29:04,600
Speaker 4: it's also impacted in the shorter term. The effect has

518
00:29:04,760 --> 00:29:07,880
Speaker 4: been a lot of the states that were intending to

519
00:29:08,000 --> 00:29:11,760
Speaker 4: go along with California in terms of their more aggressive

520
00:29:11,760 --> 00:29:14,880
Speaker 4: regulations that do resemble you know, JG three was based

521
00:29:14,880 --> 00:29:19,280
Speaker 4: on the Car Advanced Clean Truck rules and there was

522
00:29:19,320 --> 00:29:21,600
Speaker 4: a number of states that that we're going to follow

523
00:29:22,560 --> 00:29:25,680
Speaker 4: along with California on that, and they have really been

524
00:29:25,680 --> 00:29:29,640
Speaker 4: delaying and you know, pushing off their their plans, and

525
00:29:29,720 --> 00:29:31,080
Speaker 4: that's had a.

526
00:29:31,040 --> 00:29:34,880
Speaker 1: Negative impact on the outlook, you know, in the short term, right,

527
00:29:35,080 --> 00:29:38,000
Speaker 1: And I guess just pivoting to autonomous trucking. Are the

528
00:29:38,080 --> 00:29:41,680
Speaker 1: robots coming? Are they coming tomorrow? Next week? You know,

529
00:29:42,360 --> 00:29:45,120
Speaker 1: I don't know, two two and twenty two.

530
00:29:45,160 --> 00:29:45,760
Speaker 2: Yeah, there we go.

531
00:29:46,000 --> 00:29:48,120
Speaker 4: It's interesting to learn that there's some out there, and

532
00:29:48,120 --> 00:29:50,200
Speaker 4: you know, I heard from a couple of the autonomous

533
00:29:50,200 --> 00:29:53,400
Speaker 4: fleets just last week and they are they're making good

534
00:29:53,440 --> 00:29:57,560
Speaker 4: progress there has you know, there are some operations, some

535
00:29:58,840 --> 00:30:00,920
Speaker 4: are going the off highway route, which I think is

536
00:30:01,200 --> 00:30:03,960
Speaker 4: an interesting way to prove the case out.

537
00:30:04,280 --> 00:30:07,400
Speaker 2: Can you just explain to listeners what all highway means?

538
00:30:07,720 --> 00:30:11,120
Speaker 4: Sure? Uh, you know, Kodiak is the example, and they

539
00:30:11,680 --> 00:30:13,960
Speaker 4: are using I believe in oil and gas fleet that's

540
00:30:14,000 --> 00:30:16,520
Speaker 4: that's not running on the highways, and and so in

541
00:30:17,000 --> 00:30:20,040
Speaker 4: a more private operation. I think that the liabilities are

542
00:30:20,080 --> 00:30:23,320
Speaker 4: obviously a lot different than running on the highways, and

543
00:30:23,400 --> 00:30:27,600
Speaker 4: so so I think that's avantageous for that type of operation.

544
00:30:27,680 --> 00:30:29,720
Speaker 4: I mean, mining trucks have been doing this for for

545
00:30:29,800 --> 00:30:33,760
Speaker 4: some time. I think those types of of of applications

546
00:30:33,800 --> 00:30:38,400
Speaker 4: for autonomous work really well. But on the highway it's

547
00:30:38,480 --> 00:30:41,320
Speaker 4: much different. You know. The most recent news out of

548
00:30:41,320 --> 00:30:44,560
Speaker 4: Aurora overs them bringing the drivers back in not as

549
00:30:44,560 --> 00:30:48,200
Speaker 4: a driver but as an observer, and in part just

550
00:30:48,240 --> 00:30:52,000
Speaker 4: because the manufacturer didn't like one specific detail of I

551
00:30:52,000 --> 00:30:53,800
Speaker 4: don't I don't know how the details of it. There's

552
00:30:53,800 --> 00:30:55,760
Speaker 4: a whole lot of risk and then yeah, I think

553
00:30:55,760 --> 00:30:58,480
Speaker 4: it's going to take a long time to for society

554
00:30:58,560 --> 00:31:01,280
Speaker 4: at large to get comfortable with with heavy duty trucks

555
00:31:01,280 --> 00:31:02,400
Speaker 4: with no drivers.

556
00:31:02,800 --> 00:31:06,240
Speaker 1: Yeah. I'd say probably least ten years out to see

557
00:31:06,240 --> 00:31:08,320
Speaker 1: them widespread on the highways.

558
00:31:08,560 --> 00:31:13,680
Speaker 5: Do you see the autonomous trucks, you know, changing what

559
00:31:13,760 --> 00:31:17,160
Speaker 5: the replacement cycle looks like relative to the to the

560
00:31:17,200 --> 00:31:21,520
Speaker 5: ice trucks today, does it shorten that replacement period extended?

561
00:31:21,800 --> 00:31:24,680
Speaker 5: What are your thoughts about how the replacement cycle could

562
00:31:24,760 --> 00:31:28,320
Speaker 5: change as we see some of these new emerging technologies.

563
00:31:28,800 --> 00:31:31,200
Speaker 4: Yeah, it's a good question. I think the interesting thing

564
00:31:31,240 --> 00:31:34,760
Speaker 4: when you talk about in context of alternative power trains

565
00:31:35,360 --> 00:31:37,680
Speaker 4: is that electric vehicles are going to require, you know,

566
00:31:37,680 --> 00:31:42,640
Speaker 4: a lot of time to recharge, and autonomous vehicles you're

567
00:31:42,640 --> 00:31:44,400
Speaker 4: gonna want to run twenty four hours a day if

568
00:31:44,400 --> 00:31:48,040
Speaker 4: you can, and you know they should be able to essentially,

569
00:31:48,120 --> 00:31:51,400
Speaker 4: so in general, the idea is that they could run,

570
00:31:51,560 --> 00:31:55,200
Speaker 4: you know, two or three times as many miles as

571
00:31:55,240 --> 00:31:59,479
Speaker 4: your typical truck, which you know would burn them out

572
00:31:59,480 --> 00:32:04,040
Speaker 4: a lot fast. And so you could see at the

573
00:32:04,040 --> 00:32:07,680
Speaker 4: same time, if if they are running two or three,

574
00:32:07,680 --> 00:32:09,960
Speaker 4: you know, two or three times as much, you would

575
00:32:10,000 --> 00:32:11,880
Speaker 4: need fewer trucks to haul the same amount of freight,

576
00:32:12,080 --> 00:32:14,400
Speaker 4: and so you'd go through a couple of different iterations.

577
00:32:14,480 --> 00:32:17,600
Speaker 4: I think of the fleet sort of expanding and contracting,

578
00:32:18,200 --> 00:32:20,400
Speaker 4: But at the end of the day, fundamentally you'd end

579
00:32:20,480 --> 00:32:24,200
Speaker 4: up in the very long run at the same level production.

580
00:32:24,680 --> 00:32:28,160
Speaker 5: And how do you see this whole technology or energy

581
00:32:28,200 --> 00:32:32,480
Speaker 5: transition playing out? Does does battery electric, wind? Does fuel cell?

582
00:32:32,720 --> 00:32:36,400
Speaker 5: Is it hydrogen combustion? Is there one dominant fuel source

583
00:32:36,880 --> 00:32:38,960
Speaker 5: moving forward or do we see kind of a combination

584
00:32:39,040 --> 00:32:39,560
Speaker 5: of everything.

585
00:32:40,880 --> 00:32:42,760
Speaker 4: That's a good question. I think our NG needs to

586
00:32:42,760 --> 00:32:46,520
Speaker 4: be part of the discussion natural gases is it's not

587
00:32:46,640 --> 00:32:49,560
Speaker 4: zero emission for sure, but our NG is negative emission,

588
00:32:49,640 --> 00:32:54,080
Speaker 4: So so that that's definitely something that is out there

589
00:32:54,120 --> 00:32:58,240
Speaker 4: and working and gaining more and more you know, traction

590
00:32:58,480 --> 00:33:01,600
Speaker 4: in the industry year and there you know, it went

591
00:33:01,600 --> 00:33:03,680
Speaker 4: through a rough start, you know, going back fifteen years

592
00:33:03,720 --> 00:33:06,720
Speaker 4: ago or so, but there they finally do have the

593
00:33:06,800 --> 00:33:11,200
Speaker 4: right equipment from an engine technology perspective. Uh And and

594
00:33:11,280 --> 00:33:13,760
Speaker 4: so I think that's that is, you know, a contender

595
00:33:14,600 --> 00:33:17,600
Speaker 4: in terms of emission introduction. But you know next up

596
00:33:17,640 --> 00:33:22,160
Speaker 4: is certainly EBS. We would put you know, hydrogen based

597
00:33:22,160 --> 00:33:24,400
Speaker 4: stuff much much lower on the list just because of

598
00:33:24,400 --> 00:33:25,080
Speaker 4: the costs.

599
00:33:25,520 --> 00:33:27,480
Speaker 1: And I guess you know, a lot of that's, like

600
00:33:27,520 --> 00:33:29,840
Speaker 1: I said, is based on where the frame markets are going.

601
00:33:30,120 --> 00:33:32,440
Speaker 1: You seem pretty uh, you know, you're kind of a

602
00:33:32,520 --> 00:33:35,320
Speaker 1: temp at outlook Uh, when when do you guys think

603
00:33:35,640 --> 00:33:38,240
Speaker 1: that things are going to turn Yeah?

604
00:33:38,360 --> 00:33:38,880
Speaker 4: Good question.

605
00:33:39,040 --> 00:33:44,720
Speaker 6: So I actually think the most of the the negative

606
00:33:44,720 --> 00:33:48,640
Speaker 6: effects of the recent tariffs aren't really likely to hit

607
00:33:48,720 --> 00:33:50,480
Speaker 6: until the fourth quarter of this year and the first

608
00:33:50,520 --> 00:33:51,240
Speaker 6: quarter next year.

609
00:33:52,120 --> 00:33:53,440
Speaker 4: It's it's sort of where I put sort of the

610
00:33:53,720 --> 00:33:57,760
Speaker 4: the worst of them because you're going to get a

611
00:33:57,800 --> 00:34:01,360
Speaker 4: pretty good surge here in Q three. Uh, because of

612
00:34:01,400 --> 00:34:05,440
Speaker 4: this on again, off again ninety day type of planning cycle.

613
00:34:06,800 --> 00:34:07,560
Speaker 2: Right, gotcha.

614
00:34:08,239 --> 00:34:10,920
Speaker 1: So just you know, changing changing gears a little bit.

615
00:34:11,080 --> 00:34:13,359
Speaker 1: How did you get involved in transports?

616
00:34:13,400 --> 00:34:13,600
Speaker 2: What?

617
00:34:13,600 --> 00:34:13,839
Speaker 4: What?

618
00:34:13,840 --> 00:34:17,759
Speaker 1: What brought you to the the fine world of transportation?

619
00:34:18,760 --> 00:34:22,240
Speaker 4: You know, this goes back to our days, going back

620
00:34:22,360 --> 00:34:25,080
Speaker 4: over you know, two decades ago to to to the

621
00:34:25,080 --> 00:34:27,799
Speaker 4: Prudential Equity Group. Well, I believe it was it was

622
00:34:27,840 --> 00:34:30,800
Speaker 4: you on the transportation team. Back then I was covering

623
00:34:30,840 --> 00:34:34,800
Speaker 4: the auto industry and the US economy. But after leaving

624
00:34:35,120 --> 00:34:38,520
Speaker 4: you know, Prudential, I went to bear Stearns where I

625
00:34:38,600 --> 00:34:41,839
Speaker 4: joined an analyst named ed Wolf who was the top

626
00:34:41,880 --> 00:34:44,560
Speaker 4: ranked transportation analyst on on the South Side at the time.

627
00:34:44,600 --> 00:34:47,279
Speaker 4: And and uh, it was a great men mentor for

628
00:34:47,360 --> 00:34:50,319
Speaker 4: me for the next seven years and two years after

629
00:34:50,360 --> 00:34:54,560
Speaker 4: the after joining Ed bear Stearns and JP Morgan merged

630
00:34:55,480 --> 00:34:59,000
Speaker 4: UH and I was one of the founding members of

631
00:34:59,120 --> 00:35:03,600
Speaker 4: Wolf Research UH soon thereafter. And Wolf Research is still

632
00:35:03,680 --> 00:35:09,719
Speaker 4: a really wonderfully performing boutique equity research firm right there

633
00:35:09,760 --> 00:35:11,319
Speaker 4: in the New York area, close to you.

634
00:35:11,680 --> 00:35:12,399
Speaker 2: Gotcha, yeap.

635
00:35:12,480 --> 00:35:16,879
Speaker 1: Wolf Research does really good good work on transports. And

636
00:35:17,080 --> 00:35:19,000
Speaker 1: you know, I like to ask a lot of my guests,

637
00:35:19,480 --> 00:35:21,239
Speaker 1: is there a book that you've read, whether it's on

638
00:35:21,480 --> 00:35:25,960
Speaker 1: transportation or research or you know, management, that's kind of

639
00:35:25,960 --> 00:35:27,960
Speaker 1: close to your heart, that that that you like.

640
00:35:28,680 --> 00:35:30,920
Speaker 4: It's a good It's an interesting question. I look at

641
00:35:30,920 --> 00:35:32,799
Speaker 4: my bookshelf and I have to point out I have

642
00:35:32,880 --> 00:35:35,600
Speaker 4: to say thinking fast and Slow. I don't know if

643
00:35:35,640 --> 00:35:39,759
Speaker 4: that's that's been chosen before, but Dan Canneman, it's not

644
00:35:39,880 --> 00:35:43,960
Speaker 4: particularly you know, helpful for for freight, but I think

645
00:35:43,960 --> 00:35:47,239
Speaker 4: it's extremely helpful and understanding sort of how we view

646
00:35:47,280 --> 00:35:51,480
Speaker 4: the world, which is, you know, subject to to several biases.

647
00:35:52,080 --> 00:35:54,680
Speaker 4: You know, we're constantly trying to latch op the short

648
00:35:54,760 --> 00:35:57,160
Speaker 4: term data to understand longer term trends and stuff like

649
00:35:57,160 --> 00:35:59,760
Speaker 4: that in our business. So I think understanding those biases

650
00:35:59,800 --> 00:36:03,160
Speaker 4: really helps Iron those out of our forecasting. I use

651
00:36:03,200 --> 00:36:03,600
Speaker 4: that a lot.

652
00:36:03,800 --> 00:36:05,719
Speaker 1: Great well, Tim, I really want to thank you for

653
00:36:06,080 --> 00:36:07,200
Speaker 1: your time and your insights.

654
00:36:07,320 --> 00:36:08,640
Speaker 2: It was good catching up with you.

655
00:36:09,280 --> 00:36:12,839
Speaker 1: We got to do this again, maybe maybe a little

656
00:36:12,880 --> 00:36:14,440
Speaker 1: less time than twenty some ideas.

657
00:36:14,760 --> 00:36:17,680
Speaker 4: I think that would be great, and those are going

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Speaker 4: to be changing quite a bit in the days and

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Speaker 4: weeks and months to come, so I think we'll have

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Speaker 4: a lot more to talk about.

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Speaker 1: We'd love to hear Ax's outlook for twenty twenty six

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Speaker 1: and twenty twenty seven, you know, early next year sounds great,

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Speaker 1: And Chris, I want to thank you for joining me today.

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Speaker 5: Thanks Lee, it was a pleasure, and thank you Tim.

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Speaker 1: Also, I want to thank you for tuning in. If

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Speaker 1: you liked the episode, please subscribe and leave a review.

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Speaker 1: We've lined up a number of great guests for the podcast,

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00:36:44,600 --> 00:36:50,520
Speaker 1: so check back to hear conversations with C suite executives, shippers, regulators,

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Speaker 1: and decision makers within the freight markets. Also, if you'd

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00:36:53,960 --> 00:36:57,080
Speaker 1: like to learn more about the freight transportation markets, check

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Speaker 1: our work on the Bloomberg Terminal at Bigo or on

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Speaker 1: social media. This is Lee Klasgal signing off and thanks

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Speaker 1: for talking transports with me,