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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 2: I'm just about that action also.

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Speaker 1: All right here we all.

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Speaker 3: Throwing Joe, were sat up to cash.

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Speaker 1: Most gamblers when they go to gamble, they go to Wind.

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Speaker 2: That's incredible.

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Speaker 1: Big bank, small bank. I like to make money. All right.

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Speaker 2: It's just the ultimate kabata and we are underway.

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Speaker 1: What is up, everybody? Welcome to the Action Network Podcast

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Speaker 1: presented by FanDuel. I am your host, Chris Raybond, and

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Speaker 1: this is your NFL Week one betting preview where we

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Speaker 1: talk about our favorite total teasers, underdogs, and where for

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Speaker 1: the fourth consecutive season, we'll build a weekly Sunday six

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Speaker 1: pack of against the spreadbats with the help of my code,

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Speaker 1: my dude, the Prime Minister of Degenerate Nation. Stucky stuck.

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Speaker 1: Glad to have you back, man. What's going on?

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Speaker 2: I'm just excited Week one is finally here. We have

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Speaker 2: a really exciting slate, I mean even we'll talk Survivor

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Speaker 2: later down at the last minute, choosing who my survivor

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Speaker 2: team is going to be. We have a record ten

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Speaker 2: home underdogs this week, quite a few exciting matchups on Sunday,

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Speaker 2: and then of course we kick things off with the

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Speaker 2: defending Super Bowl champs and the Super Bowl favorites, which

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Speaker 2: we'll talk about here in a second. For Thursday Night Football.

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Speaker 2: Sundays are back, baby.

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Speaker 1: Good job out the schedule makers, I think as you mentioned,

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Speaker 1: and we'll jump into the Thursday Night Football preview. Then

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Speaker 1: we'll go into the six pack. But as a quick reminder,

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Speaker 1: if you want access to the picks analysis, betting tools

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Speaker 1: and the ability to track every bet that you make,

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Speaker 1: download the free award winning Action network app. I love it,

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Speaker 1: would still be using it even if I didn't work

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Speaker 1: here with just saying a lot. All right, let's jump

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Speaker 1: into Thursday Night Football.

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Speaker 2: It's not the best game, but it's the only game tonight.

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Speaker 2: Let's bet Thursday Night Football.

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Speaker 1: So we got the Buffalo Bills, who probably should have

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Speaker 1: been in the Super Bowl. Things break a little different

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Speaker 1: and you got the team who won the Super Bowl,

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Speaker 1: the Rams. So again props to the schedule makers. A

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Speaker 1: scheduled of you know, maybe could be would have been

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Speaker 1: Super Bowl right in week one. So at Fandel the

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Speaker 1: Bills are two and a half point favorites on the

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Speaker 1: road in LA and the total is now down to

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Speaker 1: fifty one and a half as we record this. It

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Speaker 1: was at fifty two or fifty two and a half

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Speaker 1: for much of the lead up to this game stuck.

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Speaker 1: What are your initial thoughts on Bills Rams.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I think the line is it's a pretty good line.

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Speaker 2: I think it's actually a shade. It's going a little

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Speaker 2: too far in the Bills direction. There's always this market

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Speaker 2: sentiment that let's fade the Super Bowl champ, but that

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Speaker 2: hasn't really worked out in the past. I mean and

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Speaker 2: raining super Bowl champs are ten five and two against

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Speaker 2: the spread in seventeen weekday primetime opener since two thousand

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Speaker 2: and four. They're fourteen seven and one against the spread

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Speaker 2: since two thousand and four, just in general, in week

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Speaker 2: one after winning the Super Bowl. That's excellent. This is

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Speaker 2: only the sixth time we'll have a Super Bowl CHAMPI

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Speaker 2: that's a home dog after winning the Super Bowl. The

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Speaker 2: previous five went four and one straight up in against

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Speaker 2: the spread. So yeah, I don't get the rush to

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Speaker 2: always fade the Super Bowl nine. I'm not in a

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Speaker 2: rush to do so. I'm a little worried about the

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Speaker 2: Buffalo secondary here. You know, Cherry White still isn't out,

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Speaker 2: so you're gonna have what a rookie you're gonna hope

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Speaker 2: Dane Jackson can hold his own when cups in the slot.

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Speaker 2: Toront Johnson is a good slot, but no one's covering

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Speaker 2: him in the slot. So yeah, you know, I think

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Speaker 2: both offenses will feast. I think that the number is

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Speaker 2: just good. Now what it does provide us with I'm

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Speaker 2: sure you guys, and you and Kerner will have some

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Speaker 2: good props out there on actually work dot com the

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Speaker 2: Action Nework CAAP. But with this line moving to two

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Speaker 2: and a half, what I did do is I grabbed

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Speaker 2: the rams and a teaser. Now it's a higher total.

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Speaker 2: We'll talk about teasers later. So it isn't the most

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Speaker 2: ideal teaser piece, but you are crossing the three and seven,

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Speaker 2: which is the most important part. And so I tease

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Speaker 2: the rams with the vikings when the vikings were plus

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Speaker 2: one and a half. If you can still find that

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Speaker 2: out over seven, fix the profile of a plus EV teaser,

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Speaker 2: get a little action on Thursday night. I think this

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Speaker 2: is game is basically a cointos, how about you.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I have this as a pickums and I'm very

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Speaker 1: tempted to play the rams here because in these type

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Speaker 1: of games, when you're getting you know, a lot of

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Speaker 1: people are going to look at the number and say, oh,

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Speaker 1: it's two and a half. You know, there's no value

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Speaker 1: because you know, three is the key number and it's

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Speaker 1: not going to get to three. I don't think, But

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Speaker 1: I mean, I just have these teams a little bit

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Speaker 1: more evenly than probably the market does. I think this

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Speaker 1: is a really tough matchup for Buffalo, as you said,

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Speaker 1: because without White, you're dealing with cupp You're dealing and

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Speaker 1: now you have to deal with Alan Robinson, who, like,

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Speaker 1: you know, really bad season last year. But look at

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Speaker 1: his underlying numbers and he actually you know, and Matt

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Speaker 1: Harmon charted this for reception perception, he was still in

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Speaker 1: the eighty fifth percentile higher against man in press coverage.

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Speaker 1: So he really just struggled against zone coverage, which is

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Speaker 1: not indicative of a guy who's like falling off or wash.

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Speaker 1: It's just, you know, a issue with the quarterbacks and

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Speaker 1: the scheme more than anything. Now you go to one

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Speaker 1: of the best schemes in the league and one of

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Speaker 1: the better quarterbacks in the league as well, in Matthew Stafford,

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Speaker 1: and I think maybe that's something to do with the line.

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Speaker 1: You know, as high as it is for Buffalo. You know,

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Speaker 1: there was all this talk about Stafford in the elbow,

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Speaker 1: but I think this is gonna, you know, for a

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Speaker 1: team in Buffalo, as good as it is and as

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Speaker 1: good as it has been, I think this is a

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Speaker 1: really tough opening game for them, and it might just

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Speaker 1: be another one of these heartbreaking type of games for

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Speaker 1: that fan base because I mean this, I mean this

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Speaker 1: is not easy, you know, going to the Rams facing

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Speaker 1: Sean McVay with extra time to prepare for opening day.

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Speaker 1: He has never failed to cover the spread. In Week one,

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Speaker 1: He's five and zero against the spread, and the Rams

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Speaker 1: are covering by an average of twelve point two points

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Speaker 1: per game in those five victories. That just kind of

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Speaker 1: speaks to what they can do. So I think this

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Speaker 1: is gonna be a really tough game for Buffalo, and

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Speaker 1: I probably will be on the Rams. Obviously, follow me

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Speaker 1: in that at Chris Raybond to see if I end

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Speaker 1: up jumping on it. But I'm really tempted to take

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Speaker 1: the Rams. It's straight up, not even just in a

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Speaker 1: teaser piece.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean either Bills power rated as the best

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Speaker 2: team in the NFL. But the love this line I

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Speaker 2: think is too I like we talked about in the

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Speaker 2: Love for the Bills. It seems to be going a

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Speaker 2: little bit too far, so I would certainly lean the

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Speaker 2: RAMS directions. If it gets to three, I'm sure it

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Speaker 2: would get hit right away with RAMS money. But I

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Speaker 2: don't mind the RAMS and the teaser too if you

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Speaker 2: want to play it that way. And like I said,

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Speaker 2: make sure you check out the Action Network cap for

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Speaker 2: props as well.

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Speaker 1: Let's jump into the long awaited the first of twenty

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Speaker 1: twenty two, the Sunday six pack.

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Speaker 2: There's steeper action. Let's crack open the Sunday six pack.

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Speaker 1: Just for everybody out there that doesn't know how we

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Speaker 1: do this, we each take three picks. We could be

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Speaker 1: on opposite side to the same pick, but we can't

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Speaker 1: take the same side. Tale it up at the end

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Speaker 1: of the year.

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Speaker 2: By the way, we do two points for our first

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Speaker 2: two picks, one point for our third pick. Just if

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Speaker 2: anyone's curious.

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Speaker 1: It looks like I'm two and one. I got that

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Speaker 1: one extra win in the Super Bowl and just a

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Speaker 1: crazy super Bowl. So I'll start us off, and it

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Speaker 1: seems like I think it's like we've alternated winning years,

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Speaker 1: so probably your year, but I'm gonna give it my

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Speaker 1: best shot here, and I'm going to start off with

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Speaker 1: the first pick of the week one two Sunday six pack.

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Speaker 1: I'm going with the Minnesota Vikings plus one and a

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Speaker 1: half hosting the green Bay Packers. And I really like

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Speaker 1: Minnesota because, first of all, green Bay without Davonte Adams,

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Speaker 1: there's gonna be a massive drop off. And this might

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Speaker 1: sound obvious, and it might not sound like a reason

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Speaker 1: to be on Minnesota, but if you just look at

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Speaker 1: what Adams has done specifically against the Vikings and then

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Speaker 1: take them out of the equation, it's eye opening. So

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Speaker 1: last year Week seventeen eleven for one, thirty six and one,

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Speaker 1: he gets forty seven percent of Rogers passing yards, two

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Speaker 1: of the team's four touchdowns. The first game they faced

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Speaker 1: each other, where the Vikings actually won that game, Adams

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Speaker 1: went seven for one fifteen and two, and he ultimately

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Speaker 1: scored half of their touchdowns. Again the game before that,

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Speaker 1: just seven catches for fifty three yards, but three touchdowns.

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Speaker 1: Game before that fourteen one fifty six and two. Go

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Speaker 1: back to twenty twenty thirteen for one sixteen, over half

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Speaker 1: of Rogers passing yards. The game before that, the first

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Speaker 1: matchup for that year seven for one oh six, again

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Speaker 1: over half of Rodgers passing yards. He scored eight of

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Speaker 1: their last sixteen total offensive touchdowns in the last four games.

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Speaker 1: He scored thirty eight percent of their offensive touchdowns overall

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Speaker 1: in the last three years in these matchups. And he's

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Speaker 1: responsible for thirty nine percent of Aaron Rodgers passing yards

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Speaker 1: over the last three years in these matchups. And now

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Speaker 1: you're going from him to we don't even know if

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Speaker 1: Allan Lazard is fully healthy. He's spilled. It looks like yeah,

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Speaker 1: and you know, Christian Watson, the rookie did like practice.

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Speaker 1: So but you might have two rookies and I love

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Speaker 1: me some Romeo Dobbs, we all know, but you might

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Speaker 1: have two rookies out there and Sammy Watkins and Randall

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Speaker 1: Copps like two rookies and two dudes who are washed.

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Speaker 1: And that's your receiving cord that you're replacing this dude

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Speaker 1: who literally scored half of your touchdowns, responsible for half

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Speaker 1: of your points. And he changes everything for Rogers too,

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Speaker 1: because we know the issue with Rogers in this offense

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Speaker 1: at this stage is, you know, if they get pressured

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Speaker 1: without woodsing, you know, if a team can kind of

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Speaker 1: rush for it and pressure them. Devontae Adams the only

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Speaker 1: outlet like that's the dude who's gonna still get open,

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Speaker 1: still beat double coverage even when the defense knows what's coming.

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Speaker 1: It's just gonna be a totally different situation now for

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Speaker 1: the for this offense. And I think that's the great

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Speaker 1: equal Oarsers. You got the Packers going on the road here,

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Speaker 1: Vikings a very solid team all around, you know, not

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Speaker 1: a ton of weaknesses. I think they'll be able to

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Speaker 1: get decent pressure. You have Danille Hunter, you have Zadarius Smith.

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Speaker 1: You were number six in pressure eight last year. I

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Speaker 1: think the you know, you have good players on every

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Speaker 1: level of the defense. You have the good safeties and

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Speaker 1: offense we know you know that's gonna be explosive, and

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Speaker 1: it should be even better now with with Kevin O'Connell.

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Speaker 1: And I even think the defense could be better with

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Speaker 1: the new defensive coordinator Donte Eight to ten Top ten defenses.

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Speaker 1: So you look at divisional dogs in week one, fifty

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Speaker 1: eight thirty two and two against the spread since two

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Speaker 1: thousand and four, that's sixty two percent if you filter

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Speaker 1: out Justin's twenty fourteen. So over the last eight years

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Speaker 1: twenty nine to nine, seventy six percent against the spread,

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Speaker 1: our divisional dogs covering by an average of six points

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Speaker 1: per game, so you're getting essentially a whole extra touchdown.

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Speaker 1: And these matchups and since twenty ten we won, divisional

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Speaker 1: dogs are thirty four, thirty one and one fifty two

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Speaker 1: percent straight up, so they actually have won more than

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Speaker 1: they lost outright, And I think the Vikings have a

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Speaker 1: really good shot of winning this game. And if it

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Speaker 1: was in Lambeau, I think it would be a lot tougher.

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Speaker 1: But you're talking about green Bay coming to Minnesota here,

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Speaker 1: no DeVante Adams, just different kind of offense going against

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Speaker 1: a very solid all round team with the benefit of

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Speaker 1: the unknown with Kevin O'Connell, and you know they're gonna

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Speaker 1: be able to do some things on offense. I think that,

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Speaker 1: you know, green Bay hasn't seen these last few years

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Speaker 1: when they're coached by Zimmer and they had kobiaking there

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Speaker 1: and it was just I think it got a little

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Speaker 1: bit more predictable. So love Minnesota this week plus one

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Speaker 1: and a half.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I would agree. And like I said before, I

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Speaker 2: actually tease the Vikings with the Rams, with lean the

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Speaker 2: Vikings here for sure, and I was gonna make the

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Speaker 2: same points as you with the unpret ability. Look, this

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Speaker 2: offense has been the same boring, inefficient first down offense

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Speaker 2: under Zimmer for years, and now you can bring I

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Speaker 2: think an added element of surprise, especially early on, but

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Speaker 2: I think overall the early down play calling will be

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Speaker 2: much more efficient. You'll hear a stat this week. Ar

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Speaker 2: Unders owns the division, by the way, and he's forty

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Speaker 2: eight and twenty nine against the spread in the division

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Speaker 2: in his career. That's fifty eight point nine percent. That's

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Speaker 2: the most profitable quarterback in the NFL over the since

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Speaker 2: two thousand and three. But that's fifty eight point nine percent.

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Speaker 2: That's just exact against the spread mark overall, he's only

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Speaker 2: behind Brady that aspect. That's just what he does. He

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Speaker 2: covers and by the way, out of two hundred and

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Speaker 2: fifty eight quarterbacks, it's Brady and then Rogers since two

253
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Speaker 2: thousand and three against its most profitable quarterbacks. But he's

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Speaker 2: only six and eight against the spread at Minnesota. A

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Speaker 2: lot of those games are playing they had Bears teams

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Speaker 2: who he just owns, and really bad Lions teams. So

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Speaker 2: I don't mind it at all. And by the way,

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Speaker 2: I'll get a build on what you were just saying

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Speaker 2: in a second with my first pick and the second

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Speaker 2: overall to Sunday six, back from going with the Houston

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Speaker 2: Texans plus seven and a half against the Indianapolis Colts. Yes,

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Speaker 2: we're gonna be ugly. I mean we're just it's gonna

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Speaker 2: be ugly this entire show and for most of the season,

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Speaker 2: so get used to it. But I'll go with the

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Speaker 2: Texans plus seven and a half against the Colts. Look,

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Speaker 2: we talked about this is the time to bet division

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Speaker 2: dogs week one, but especially divisional home dogs. Divisional home

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Speaker 2: dogs of more than seven, which we have here ten

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Speaker 2: and two against the spread eighty three point three percent

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Speaker 2: in week one, covering by six points per game. They've

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Speaker 2: bot seven and five straight up, catching over a touchdown.

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Speaker 2: And divisional dogs divisional home dogs in week one since

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Speaker 2: twenty nine are nineteen and five against the spread seventy

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Speaker 2: nine point two percent, covering by just under nine points

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Speaker 2: per game fifteen to eight and one straight up. And

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Speaker 2: that applies for the Falcons, Vikings, and Tech since this week,

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Speaker 2: and for whatever reason, the Colts have has just always

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Speaker 2: started slow under Frank Braig. You know they'll start oh

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Speaker 2: and two, oh and three every year. They're also oh

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Speaker 2: and four and week one under Reich, three and one

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Speaker 2: against the spread. Look, I'm not going to come out

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Speaker 2: here and tell you that the Texans or world beaters.

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Speaker 2: I just think, you know, if this line was six,

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Speaker 2: probably wouldn't make it. I would play this up to

285
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Speaker 2: seven and a half minus one twenty by the way,

286
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Speaker 2: Sandel plus seven and a half minus one fourteen right now,

287
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Speaker 2: just such a key number. The cults are just a

288
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Speaker 2: little over inflated here. There's value in the number. There's

289
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Speaker 2: value in the situation. I'll take my home pup catching

290
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Speaker 2: over a key number of seven here, and uh probably

291
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Speaker 2: goes down to the wire.

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Speaker 1: I got all these dogs. I think this is like

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Speaker 1: this one scares me the most only because I remember

294
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Speaker 1: being on the Texans last year as a dog against

295
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Speaker 1: the Patriots, and I think it was thirty one nothing

296
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Speaker 1: that the Texans lost, And so they lost the two

297
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Speaker 1: games against the Colts last year by combined sixty two

298
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Speaker 1: to three. Now, different team, you know, got some different

299
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Speaker 1: guys on the coaching staff this year. But it does

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Speaker 1: scare me a little just because of how bad they

301
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Speaker 1: played against the Colts last year, but this this is

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Speaker 1: the time to do it, Like this is we've seen this,

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Speaker 1: Like you said, year after year, overestimate the disparity in

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Speaker 1: quality between divisional opponents in week one because remember we

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Speaker 1: have no data. We have no data. So the way

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Speaker 1: you get to a number like eight nine, ten eleven

307
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Speaker 1: for spread is because you're getting more confidence in your

308
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Speaker 1: predictions as the sample size is growing. So you shouldn't

309
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Speaker 1: really see, you know, these these bigger lines early in

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Speaker 1: the year, and you are. And not only is it

311
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Speaker 1: a big line, but it's a big line with in

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Speaker 1: favor of the team on the road, So I certainly

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Speaker 1: get it. It does scare me a little, but I

314
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Speaker 1: certainly understand all these if.

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Speaker 2: You're not scared betting NFL dogs and this isn't this

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Speaker 2: isn't for you. And look, the Texans secondary does scare

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Speaker 2: me in particular, but they're offensive line isn't bad. They

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Speaker 2: have some weapons on the outside. They might be starting

319
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Speaker 2: two rookies in the secondary. You know, if you're going

320
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Speaker 2: to pick out all the teams in the NFL AFC

321
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Speaker 2: like this, you would be okay with facing the Colts

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Speaker 2: in Week one with two rookies in the secondary over

323
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Speaker 2: a lot of other teams because it's not like the

324
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Speaker 2: depth of their receiving core is tremendous by any stretch.

325
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Speaker 2: So yeah, I think the Texans keep this a game

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Speaker 2: and potentially pull off the upset. Where are you going next?

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Speaker 1: For my second pick in the third overall of the

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Speaker 1: week one Sunday six pack, I am going with the

329
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Speaker 1: Atlanta Falcons plus five and a half at home as

330
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Speaker 1: a divisional underdog against the Saints. Let's keep it ugly.

331
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Speaker 1: I mean, we went Texans Falcons back to back, so

332
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Speaker 1: I can't get any ugly weier than that. I think

333
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Speaker 1: those are pretty much the consensus two worst teams in

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Speaker 1: the National Football League. But we're not betting teams or

335
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Speaker 1: betting numbers, and the numbers too high, Like, let's just

336
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Speaker 1: take everything out of the equation for a second, except

337
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Speaker 1: we're getting Jameis Winston catching five and a half on

338
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Speaker 1: the road, Like that's absurd. Jameis Winston is eight seventeen

339
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Speaker 1: and one in his career as a favorite. That's a

340
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Speaker 1: thirty three percent cover rate, failing to cover by just

341
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Speaker 1: about a field goal per game. And again, you have

342
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Speaker 1: all the same trends that apply. I won't repeat them,

343
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Speaker 1: but let's talk about this smatchup. You've got New Orleans

344
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Speaker 1: in its first game without Sean Payton, so we don't

345
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Speaker 1: know exactly what that quality drop is going to be.

346
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Speaker 1: Sean Payton was one thirty three, one oh five and

347
00:17:34,440 --> 00:17:38,160
Speaker 1: three fifty six percent against the spread, the third most

348
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Speaker 1: profitable coach in our Action Labs database. His team's covered

349
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Speaker 1: the spread by an average of one point nine points

350
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Speaker 1: per game, which is massive over a two hundred plus

351
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Speaker 1: game sample size. Dennis Allen fourteen to twenty one against

352
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Speaker 1: the spread forty percent. His teams have failed to cover

353
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Speaker 1: by an average of nearly four points per game, So,

354
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Speaker 1: like there could be a drop off here. You know,

355
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Speaker 1: we just really don't know. But that's the point we're

356
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Speaker 1: trying to bet on the uncertainty when we're taking the

357
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Speaker 1: dog here.

358
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Speaker 2: Yeah, there's a lot more downside risk than like upside

359
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Speaker 2: potential of Allen being way better than Peyton, which is

360
00:18:09,160 --> 00:18:09,680
Speaker 2: not going to be.

361
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Speaker 1: The case exactly. And the timing of this game for

362
00:18:12,840 --> 00:18:15,320
Speaker 1: both teams I think just benefits the Falcons. You know,

363
00:18:15,359 --> 00:18:18,040
Speaker 1: first of all, obviously they're at home, But then you're

364
00:18:18,080 --> 00:18:22,040
Speaker 1: talking about Uh, it's Jamis's first game as a starting

365
00:18:22,119 --> 00:18:27,160
Speaker 1: quarterback with Michael Thomas, Chris o'lave, Jarvis Landry. So yeah,

366
00:18:27,240 --> 00:18:30,560
Speaker 1: we like the receivers this year, but he doesn't really

367
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Speaker 1: have chemistry with him. He was on a team with Thomas,

368
00:18:32,600 --> 00:18:35,400
Speaker 1: but you know, he was not the starter then and

369
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Speaker 1: this is really going to be their first true game

370
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Speaker 1: together and Thomas not was none He was noncommittal about playing,

371
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Speaker 1: which is big. You know, when you kind of talk

372
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Speaker 1: about why reasons that you would like the Saints this year,

373
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Speaker 1: I think, you know, Thomas coming back healthy is a

374
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Speaker 1: big part of that. And by the way, you know,

375
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Speaker 1: as much as we kind of rag on Atlanta and

376
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Speaker 1: you know they obviously the roster is still not where

377
00:18:55,240 --> 00:18:58,960
Speaker 1: it needs to be, but their boundary cornerbacks should be

378
00:18:59,000 --> 00:19:02,639
Speaker 1: pretty good. They have aj Terrell and Casey Hayward and

379
00:19:03,000 --> 00:19:05,879
Speaker 1: Terrell was second of one hundred and sixteen cornerbacks in

380
00:19:05,920 --> 00:19:08,480
Speaker 1: PFF grade last year and Hayward is twelve. So you

381
00:19:08,520 --> 00:19:10,960
Speaker 1: got two top twelve guys out of you know, in

382
00:19:11,040 --> 00:19:12,879
Speaker 1: the league. In terms of how they played last year.

383
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Speaker 1: I think I think they can play up to that

384
00:19:14,640 --> 00:19:18,680
Speaker 1: standard this year. It's just you know, Atlanta. Obviously, they're

385
00:19:18,680 --> 00:19:20,399
Speaker 1: not going to get a ton of pressure. They probably

386
00:19:20,440 --> 00:19:22,840
Speaker 1: should get more than last year though, because you know,

387
00:19:22,840 --> 00:19:24,960
Speaker 1: they got some new guys in there. They got Abiqity,

388
00:19:25,000 --> 00:19:28,400
Speaker 1: they got Carter, so we'll see. But then you look

389
00:19:28,400 --> 00:19:30,440
Speaker 1: at New Orleans. Okay, so got the new receivers, you

390
00:19:30,520 --> 00:19:33,679
Speaker 1: got the new coach, essentially Jamis you know, working with

391
00:19:33,720 --> 00:19:36,280
Speaker 1: a bunch of new guys, and that includes the left

392
00:19:36,320 --> 00:19:39,600
Speaker 1: tackle because you know Toront Armstead is now in Miami.

393
00:19:39,840 --> 00:19:42,080
Speaker 1: Then you look at the defense and you got a

394
00:19:42,080 --> 00:19:44,919
Speaker 1: whole new back end with you know, Honey Badger but

395
00:19:44,960 --> 00:19:47,840
Speaker 1: in a kind of aging Honey Badger and Marcus may

396
00:19:47,880 --> 00:19:49,639
Speaker 1: who and who knows where his head's at. They just

397
00:19:49,640 --> 00:19:52,760
Speaker 1: traded Chauncey Gardner Johnson, So you're going from you know,

398
00:19:52,840 --> 00:19:55,000
Speaker 1: Marcus Williams, who's one of the best safeties in the league,

399
00:19:55,160 --> 00:19:57,639
Speaker 1: a little more uncertainty and these guys just haven't been together.

400
00:19:58,440 --> 00:20:01,720
Speaker 1: And then you look at the match up. Okay, New

401
00:20:01,800 --> 00:20:03,920
Speaker 1: Orleans one of the best run defenses in the league

402
00:20:04,000 --> 00:20:05,760
Speaker 1: year in year out, but a lan as one of

403
00:20:05,800 --> 00:20:09,199
Speaker 1: those teams that can get running yards unconventionally. You know,

404
00:20:09,440 --> 00:20:12,119
Speaker 1: they can use guys out of the back at receiver

405
00:20:12,240 --> 00:20:15,720
Speaker 1: like Cordero Patterson and do some misdirection things. They have

406
00:20:15,840 --> 00:20:18,800
Speaker 1: all these players that are kind of converted from other

407
00:20:18,840 --> 00:20:22,200
Speaker 1: positions that they're gonna get involved, like Felipe Franks converted

408
00:20:22,240 --> 00:20:25,840
Speaker 1: quarterback into tight end. You got Avery Williams converted cornerback

409
00:20:25,880 --> 00:20:29,080
Speaker 1: slash returnment. Now he's gonna be in the backfield. And

410
00:20:29,080 --> 00:20:31,200
Speaker 1: then of course you got Mariota who can run the ball.

411
00:20:31,320 --> 00:20:35,320
Speaker 1: So it kind of thwarts some of that run defense,

412
00:20:35,359 --> 00:20:38,600
Speaker 1: which is a big strength of New Orleans. And you know,

413
00:20:38,640 --> 00:20:41,199
Speaker 1: to that point, they gave up the third fewish rushing

414
00:20:41,280 --> 00:20:43,720
Speaker 1: touchdowns to running backs last year, but the second most

415
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Speaker 1: to quarterbacks. So this is Week one and last year

416
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Speaker 1: in Week one, I was fading the Falcons, you know,

417
00:20:49,640 --> 00:20:52,159
Speaker 1: I think it was the Eagles they were playing. This

418
00:20:52,240 --> 00:20:55,680
Speaker 1: offense just didn't have anything going for it. But now

419
00:20:55,920 --> 00:20:58,600
Speaker 1: you got Arthur Smith has some of the pieces and

420
00:20:58,800 --> 00:21:01,359
Speaker 1: a lot of versus in terms of the pizzas he

421
00:21:01,400 --> 00:21:03,800
Speaker 1: wants on his offense. So this is the time where

422
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Speaker 1: I think you're gonna see a lot of the kind

423
00:21:06,640 --> 00:21:09,000
Speaker 1: of unpredictability, kind of similar to what we're talking about

424
00:21:09,040 --> 00:21:11,359
Speaker 1: the Vikings, except with Arthur Smith I think it's gonna

425
00:21:11,359 --> 00:21:13,679
Speaker 1: be even more interesting because, like I said, they're just

426
00:21:13,720 --> 00:21:16,760
Speaker 1: loading up on these versatile guys that can play multiple positions.

427
00:21:16,760 --> 00:21:19,280
Speaker 1: So you know, we might see like a Felipe Franks,

428
00:21:19,400 --> 00:21:23,160
Speaker 1: like reverse touch, like toss pass downfield. We could see

429
00:21:23,320 --> 00:21:26,439
Speaker 1: Cordell Patterson doing some things like I don't even think

430
00:21:26,480 --> 00:21:28,560
Speaker 1: they need Drake London to play for this offense to

431
00:21:28,560 --> 00:21:31,040
Speaker 1: be super creative. And at week one is when you've

432
00:21:31,080 --> 00:21:34,600
Speaker 1: shown absolutely nothing. So yet all these things I think

433
00:21:34,680 --> 00:21:38,840
Speaker 1: just situationally kind of working in favor of the Falcons.

434
00:21:39,040 --> 00:21:41,439
Speaker 1: And you're talking about five and a half points on

435
00:21:41,520 --> 00:21:45,679
Speaker 1: the road for Jamis Winston with just so much uncertainty,

436
00:21:45,720 --> 00:21:48,160
Speaker 1: Like I think the Saints will be a good team eventually,

437
00:21:48,200 --> 00:21:50,760
Speaker 1: but it's way too many points. And you know, the

438
00:21:50,800 --> 00:21:53,720
Speaker 1: trends obviously back that up. Again, twenty nine to nine

439
00:21:53,760 --> 00:21:56,320
Speaker 1: are divisional dogs and this is why because people are

440
00:21:56,359 --> 00:21:59,040
Speaker 1: giving Jameis Winston five and a half points on the road.

441
00:21:59,800 --> 00:22:02,040
Speaker 2: Yeah, I starting to see Saint super Bowl. I agree

442
00:22:02,040 --> 00:22:04,439
Speaker 2: that the value here is with the Falcons. I'll probably

443
00:22:04,560 --> 00:22:07,280
Speaker 2: join you here. Looks like Drake London is gonna play

444
00:22:07,640 --> 00:22:11,439
Speaker 2: as well, and there's some upside potential with the Falcons defense,

445
00:22:11,440 --> 00:22:13,920
Speaker 2: which was arguably the worst in the NFL last year.

446
00:22:14,160 --> 00:22:17,120
Speaker 2: But they have good corners, which is just a necessity

447
00:22:17,200 --> 00:22:20,280
Speaker 2: to have any shot of having success in today's NFL.

448
00:22:20,600 --> 00:22:22,919
Speaker 2: But if you look historically at DNPS, who runs one

449
00:22:22,960 --> 00:22:26,879
Speaker 2: of the most unique, complex defenses in the league, usually

450
00:22:26,880 --> 00:22:30,280
Speaker 2: has a big year two bump. They were clearly confused

451
00:22:30,320 --> 00:22:33,639
Speaker 2: and just nothing was going right last year. We're changing

452
00:22:33,640 --> 00:22:36,280
Speaker 2: a culture around his day going place okay, and it's

453
00:22:36,320 --> 00:22:38,720
Speaker 2: not gonna be mediocre, it's not gonna be average, it's

454
00:22:38,720 --> 00:22:40,280
Speaker 2: not gonna be in the bottom half of the league.

455
00:22:40,440 --> 00:22:43,600
Speaker 2: That book's over. So look his second year there another

456
00:22:43,680 --> 00:22:48,320
Speaker 2: offseason with some good corners. He's historically in that year too,

457
00:22:48,760 --> 00:22:51,359
Speaker 2: his roster really starts to pick up what he's trying

458
00:22:51,400 --> 00:22:54,800
Speaker 2: to do, confusing opposing quarterbacks, which is what you want

459
00:22:54,840 --> 00:22:58,399
Speaker 2: when you're fading Winston. So I can see two thirty

460
00:22:58,440 --> 00:23:03,040
Speaker 2: eight pm Eastern call the pick six come on red

461
00:23:03,119 --> 00:23:07,000
Speaker 2: zone said, red zone will pop up and Falcons are

462
00:23:07,000 --> 00:23:07,720
Speaker 2: gone the other way.

463
00:23:07,920 --> 00:23:10,159
Speaker 1: That just gave me an idea. That's that's a contrarian

464
00:23:10,240 --> 00:23:12,639
Speaker 1: DFS play, Like nobody's going to touch the Falcons and

465
00:23:12,680 --> 00:23:14,560
Speaker 1: they'll be like They're one of the cheapest defenses on

466
00:23:14,600 --> 00:23:15,160
Speaker 1: the slate.

467
00:23:15,000 --> 00:23:18,919
Speaker 2: So Jamie's disaster game and could happen this game. By

468
00:23:18,960 --> 00:23:21,080
Speaker 2: the way, you think about Saints Falcons in your head

469
00:23:21,200 --> 00:23:26,120
Speaker 2: last couple of years, Ryan Julio Ridley versus Like Breeze

470
00:23:26,200 --> 00:23:29,240
Speaker 2: and top shootouts. High highest totals of the week right,

471
00:23:29,280 --> 00:23:32,159
Speaker 2: this is forty two, which makes the five and a

472
00:23:32,200 --> 00:23:35,159
Speaker 2: half even more valuable in what projects to be a

473
00:23:35,200 --> 00:23:36,160
Speaker 2: lower scoring game.

474
00:23:36,840 --> 00:23:38,480
Speaker 1: I do want to take a second for a quick

475
00:23:38,480 --> 00:23:42,080
Speaker 1: announcement to any listeners who use the Action Network app.

476
00:23:42,320 --> 00:23:45,679
Speaker 1: Thanks to our new partnership with FanDuel, starting right now

477
00:23:46,000 --> 00:23:48,720
Speaker 1: in week one, We've got a new technology update for

478
00:23:48,800 --> 00:23:51,800
Speaker 1: all you gamblers out there. It's called quick Slip, and

479
00:23:51,840 --> 00:23:54,200
Speaker 1: here's how it works. Let's say you've got a Fandle

480
00:23:54,240 --> 00:23:56,760
Speaker 1: account and you're in the Action app looking for the

481
00:23:56,800 --> 00:24:00,359
Speaker 1: best lines. You can use quick Slip to go directly

482
00:24:00,520 --> 00:24:03,720
Speaker 1: two FanDuel with that same pick in a bet swip

483
00:24:03,920 --> 00:24:07,400
Speaker 1: ready to go. It's a huge time saver for any

484
00:24:07,480 --> 00:24:10,640
Speaker 1: Action app user who bets with FanDuel, so be sure

485
00:24:10,680 --> 00:24:11,440
Speaker 1: to check it out.

486
00:24:12,160 --> 00:24:15,160
Speaker 2: All right, for my second pick and the fourth overall

487
00:24:15,280 --> 00:24:18,919
Speaker 2: of the week one Sunday, six pack. I am keeping

488
00:24:18,920 --> 00:24:23,480
Speaker 2: it ugly and going with the New York Football Giants

489
00:24:23,800 --> 00:24:28,320
Speaker 2: plus five and a half at the Tennessee Titans. Look,

490
00:24:28,359 --> 00:24:30,879
Speaker 2: we're going right from the Texans to the Falcons to

491
00:24:30,960 --> 00:24:34,080
Speaker 2: the Giants. What'd you expect when you came here for

492
00:24:34,320 --> 00:24:38,159
Speaker 2: Week one? But look the Giants, I'm higher than them

493
00:24:38,200 --> 00:24:40,199
Speaker 2: on the market that played. Their win total over was

494
00:24:40,240 --> 00:24:42,240
Speaker 2: one of my favorite overs, and I'm lower than the

495
00:24:42,240 --> 00:24:44,240
Speaker 2: mark of the Titans. One of my favorite win total

496
00:24:44,320 --> 00:24:46,879
Speaker 2: unders was the Titans. So it's no surprise that I

497
00:24:46,920 --> 00:24:49,840
Speaker 2: show a lot of value on the Giants in Week

498
00:24:49,880 --> 00:24:53,080
Speaker 2: one and a great product. We have action labs and

499
00:24:53,119 --> 00:24:54,960
Speaker 2: on our action app we show some of these systems.

500
00:24:54,960 --> 00:24:58,639
Speaker 2: But this speaks to the kind of overreaction perception nature

501
00:24:58,680 --> 00:25:02,520
Speaker 2: of the NFL road dogs in Week one, that one

502
00:25:02,920 --> 00:25:06,240
Speaker 2: that were bad last season with a low total, which

503
00:25:06,320 --> 00:25:09,760
Speaker 2: this game has sixty two percent over the past thirty years,

504
00:25:09,920 --> 00:25:12,720
Speaker 2: teams that won between zero and six games total forty

505
00:25:12,720 --> 00:25:15,800
Speaker 2: five or below, just buying low on the perception, which

506
00:25:15,800 --> 00:25:17,960
Speaker 2: I think this is where this is. I am higher

507
00:25:18,000 --> 00:25:20,400
Speaker 2: from a number's perspective on the Giants, but I'm really

508
00:25:20,400 --> 00:25:22,400
Speaker 2: low on this Titans team. Across the board. I think

509
00:25:22,440 --> 00:25:25,440
Speaker 2: the questions on the offensive line. The wide receiver group

510
00:25:25,560 --> 00:25:28,560
Speaker 2: is extremely poor, and that's really important here. We mentioned

511
00:25:28,560 --> 00:25:31,360
Speaker 2: this on one of our preview pods that the Giants

512
00:25:31,520 --> 00:25:34,840
Speaker 2: are going to have a major problem at their second

513
00:25:34,880 --> 00:25:38,159
Speaker 2: corner spot all year. That's not that big of a

514
00:25:38,200 --> 00:25:41,320
Speaker 2: concern this week against Tennessee. This is one of the

515
00:25:41,359 --> 00:25:45,280
Speaker 2: weakest wide receiver rooms in the NFL, so they can

516
00:25:45,320 --> 00:25:48,359
Speaker 2: get by here. The offensive line, which should be better

517
00:25:48,560 --> 00:25:51,879
Speaker 2: for the Giants, also gets now they don't have to

518
00:25:51,880 --> 00:25:54,359
Speaker 2: deal with Howard Landry, who led the Titans and sacks

519
00:25:54,400 --> 00:25:56,200
Speaker 2: last year, is now out for the year. The offensive

520
00:25:56,200 --> 00:25:58,520
Speaker 2: line should be better. Looks like the receivers are going

521
00:25:58,600 --> 00:26:01,080
Speaker 2: to be relatively healthy. I don't know if what's going

522
00:26:01,119 --> 00:26:03,840
Speaker 2: to happen three plays into the game, but going into

523
00:26:03,880 --> 00:26:07,080
Speaker 2: this and I think the offense just in general, which

524
00:26:07,080 --> 00:26:08,920
Speaker 2: I don't think the market is captainer, is going to

525
00:26:09,000 --> 00:26:12,280
Speaker 2: be much more efficient with Dable at the helm, not

526
00:26:12,359 --> 00:26:15,000
Speaker 2: just from a play calling perspective, from a decision making perspective.

527
00:26:15,400 --> 00:26:18,320
Speaker 2: There's also the unknown here with Dabel. Let's see some

528
00:26:18,400 --> 00:26:21,720
Speaker 2: of the nuances and new looks that he's because it's

529
00:26:21,720 --> 00:26:23,760
Speaker 2: going to look like there's gonna be a lot of

530
00:26:23,760 --> 00:26:26,639
Speaker 2: different RPO type looks, and that the Titans are going

531
00:26:26,680 --> 00:26:29,440
Speaker 2: to have no film on. So I think the Giants

532
00:26:29,480 --> 00:26:33,800
Speaker 2: can say, all right, let's we're gonna week Martindale is

533
00:26:33,800 --> 00:26:37,280
Speaker 2: gonna come at Ryan Tannehill load the box show a

534
00:26:37,280 --> 00:26:39,719
Speaker 2: bunch of different looks because he loves to leave his

535
00:26:39,880 --> 00:26:43,000
Speaker 2: corners on islands. This is the opponent that you're like,

536
00:26:43,200 --> 00:26:44,720
Speaker 2: one of the few opponents that you're like. Okay, I

537
00:26:44,720 --> 00:26:47,560
Speaker 2: can feel comfortable with the Giants doing that here. Let's

538
00:26:47,560 --> 00:26:50,760
Speaker 2: focus on Henry bring the blitz on third down. Yeah,

539
00:26:50,800 --> 00:26:52,119
Speaker 2: I think that this line is too I have this

540
00:26:52,160 --> 00:26:54,200
Speaker 2: like three and a half. Yeah, I grabbed the six,

541
00:26:54,359 --> 00:26:56,000
Speaker 2: so take it a five and a half. I think

542
00:26:56,000 --> 00:26:59,160
Speaker 2: the Giants are going to have a shot to pull

543
00:26:59,200 --> 00:27:03,400
Speaker 2: off this outright upset on the road to kick off

544
00:27:03,440 --> 00:27:04,800
Speaker 2: the year. Do you agree?

545
00:27:05,280 --> 00:27:08,240
Speaker 1: So? I do, and I'll be joining you at some point.

546
00:27:08,720 --> 00:27:11,560
Speaker 1: I'm hoping that maybe I catch a straight six. At

547
00:27:11,560 --> 00:27:13,440
Speaker 1: some point. I doubt we're gonna get there. Probably gonna

548
00:27:13,440 --> 00:27:16,800
Speaker 1: go the other way. But I promised you at the

549
00:27:16,840 --> 00:27:19,320
Speaker 1: beginning of the show, before we hopped on air, that

550
00:27:19,400 --> 00:27:21,560
Speaker 1: I had a stat for you on the Giants and

551
00:27:21,640 --> 00:27:22,399
Speaker 1: Daniel Jones.

552
00:27:22,600 --> 00:27:25,199
Speaker 2: I have written down here roade Daniel Jones. Yeah, so

553
00:27:26,119 --> 00:27:28,000
Speaker 2: in the past, you bet, you bet Daniel Jones on

554
00:27:28,000 --> 00:27:29,440
Speaker 2: the road and you don't at home.

555
00:27:29,640 --> 00:27:33,040
Speaker 1: Yep. So Daniel Jones on the road it has been great.

556
00:27:33,119 --> 00:27:38,040
Speaker 1: He is eleven and four against the spread, seventy three percent.

557
00:27:38,680 --> 00:27:40,399
Speaker 1: Like you said, the record at home is pretty much

558
00:27:40,440 --> 00:27:43,840
Speaker 1: the opposite. But here's the crazy thing. Daniel Jones on

559
00:27:43,960 --> 00:27:47,080
Speaker 1: the road catching seven and a half or less, so

560
00:27:47,520 --> 00:27:49,960
Speaker 1: when they are a smaller road favorite by you know,

561
00:27:49,960 --> 00:27:52,679
Speaker 1: about a touchdown or less nine to zero against the spread,

562
00:27:52,720 --> 00:27:55,520
Speaker 1: has never failed to cover in nine tries.

563
00:27:55,560 --> 00:27:58,600
Speaker 2: So, wow, that's a diamond. That's a diamond there.

564
00:27:58,680 --> 00:28:01,240
Speaker 1: That's right, that's right. You know, I'm I'm I'm in

565
00:28:01,320 --> 00:28:03,000
Speaker 1: mid season four with some of these trends. It's one

566
00:28:03,040 --> 00:28:04,840
Speaker 1: of the craziest ones I've ever seen. I mean, it's

567
00:28:04,880 --> 00:28:07,040
Speaker 1: still you know, it's still a relatively small sample, but

568
00:28:07,359 --> 00:28:09,960
Speaker 1: you know, a couple of different coaches and schemes, and

569
00:28:10,240 --> 00:28:12,600
Speaker 1: it's just one of those quarterbacks that he's never gonna

570
00:28:12,640 --> 00:28:15,280
Speaker 1: like wow you, but he kind of keep you there,

571
00:28:15,400 --> 00:28:17,080
Speaker 1: at least on the road they do. So that would

572
00:28:17,080 --> 00:28:18,160
Speaker 1: have been one of the ones I would have took

573
00:28:18,200 --> 00:28:19,720
Speaker 1: actually if if you hadn't.

574
00:28:20,240 --> 00:28:22,720
Speaker 2: Yeah, and by the way, again, catching five and a

575
00:28:22,720 --> 00:28:26,120
Speaker 2: half six totals four round forty three even more valuable

576
00:28:26,440 --> 00:28:29,480
Speaker 2: than if the total was, say fifty three with the

577
00:28:29,520 --> 00:28:31,800
Speaker 2: Cardinals Chiefs, which we'll get to later. But where are

578
00:28:31,800 --> 00:28:32,359
Speaker 2: you going next?

579
00:28:32,720 --> 00:28:36,360
Speaker 1: I am going for my third pick, the fifth overall

580
00:28:36,440 --> 00:28:40,240
Speaker 1: of the week one Sunday six pack with the Patriots

581
00:28:40,240 --> 00:28:42,760
Speaker 1: of New England plus three and a half at the

582
00:28:42,800 --> 00:28:47,120
Speaker 1: Miami Dolphins. And again this is about the number because

583
00:28:47,760 --> 00:28:49,320
Speaker 1: we're getting the hook here. If you look at this

584
00:28:49,400 --> 00:28:51,840
Speaker 1: Patriots teave, and not a lot of positive has come

585
00:28:51,840 --> 00:28:54,200
Speaker 1: out about the offense in the off season. We got

586
00:28:54,280 --> 00:28:57,000
Speaker 1: Joe Judge and Matt Patricia, two of our favorite coaches,

587
00:28:57,040 --> 00:29:00,880
Speaker 1: have bet against you know, probably coordinating the offense. I

588
00:29:00,920 --> 00:29:02,640
Speaker 1: don't even know what you want to call it, directing

589
00:29:02,720 --> 00:29:06,280
Speaker 1: the offense, helping Bill Belichick with the offense, whatever, whatever

590
00:29:06,320 --> 00:29:08,880
Speaker 1: it is. You know, the reports haven't been positive. But

591
00:29:08,960 --> 00:29:10,720
Speaker 1: I think that's why we're getting this three and a

592
00:29:10,720 --> 00:29:12,880
Speaker 1: half because I just can't get to this number. I

593
00:29:12,960 --> 00:29:15,760
Speaker 1: make it about two, and that's after giving the Dolphins

594
00:29:15,800 --> 00:29:19,600
Speaker 1: a bunk for home field advantage. Because we know the Patriots,

595
00:29:19,640 --> 00:29:21,280
Speaker 1: you know, go in the hot weather and they tend

596
00:29:21,320 --> 00:29:24,320
Speaker 1: to struggle and all that. But I just look at

597
00:29:24,320 --> 00:29:27,160
Speaker 1: this matchup and yes, the Dolphins got a little better,

598
00:29:27,240 --> 00:29:29,360
Speaker 1: Yes the Patriots got a little worse. But I just

599
00:29:29,440 --> 00:29:31,680
Speaker 1: I can't get to three and a half, Like, I

600
00:29:31,800 --> 00:29:34,360
Speaker 1: just don't know how this number is that high. And

601
00:29:34,720 --> 00:29:37,760
Speaker 1: I'm looking at the Patriots and I say, Okay, maybe

602
00:29:37,800 --> 00:29:40,440
Speaker 1: the there's a little bit of a transitional period with

603
00:29:40,480 --> 00:29:42,560
Speaker 1: the offense, but you're still talking about a team that

604
00:29:42,600 --> 00:29:44,600
Speaker 1: should be able to block things up. You know, they

605
00:29:44,600 --> 00:29:47,760
Speaker 1: still have Brown and Win at tackle. I think those

606
00:29:47,840 --> 00:29:51,720
Speaker 1: above average group of tackles. Andrews and when Wu on

607
00:29:51,800 --> 00:29:54,720
Speaker 1: the interior both graded out in the top five last year.

608
00:29:54,800 --> 00:29:57,560
Speaker 1: So you got cold strains the rookie. That's the only

609
00:29:57,720 --> 00:30:01,800
Speaker 1: kind of question mark on the on the line. You got,

610
00:30:02,160 --> 00:30:04,840
Speaker 1: in my opinion, the better quarterback. Like yeah, two have

611
00:30:04,920 --> 00:30:08,400
Speaker 1: got a nice weapon or three, but I still think

612
00:30:08,400 --> 00:30:12,000
Speaker 1: Mac Jones is a better quarterback. And you also just

613
00:30:12,080 --> 00:30:17,200
Speaker 1: have the again, like Miami, we saw too a complete

614
00:30:17,200 --> 00:30:19,600
Speaker 1: It was a sixty yard pass to Tyreek Hill and

615
00:30:19,600 --> 00:30:22,280
Speaker 1: everyone's like, oh, Miami, Tyreek, that's gonna work out. But

616
00:30:22,560 --> 00:30:24,680
Speaker 1: he underthrew him on that throw, Like, we still don't

617
00:30:24,720 --> 00:30:27,600
Speaker 1: know if Tua is gonna be able to utilize these weapons.

618
00:30:28,040 --> 00:30:31,160
Speaker 1: There's and Bill Belichick has actually his defenses have been

619
00:30:31,160 --> 00:30:34,680
Speaker 1: pretty good against Tua. Uh TWOA is just six point

620
00:30:34,720 --> 00:30:38,960
Speaker 1: one yards per attempt in three games against the Patriots,

621
00:30:39,000 --> 00:30:41,800
Speaker 1: with two touchdowns and two picks. You know, for everything

622
00:30:41,800 --> 00:30:44,720
Speaker 1: I'm hearing about the defense, it's actually been better than expected.

623
00:30:45,080 --> 00:30:47,000
Speaker 1: And that's this is kind of what the Patriots do.

624
00:30:47,080 --> 00:30:48,760
Speaker 1: And I think everyone's just kind of thinking about the

625
00:30:48,760 --> 00:30:52,680
Speaker 1: offense and oh, like Miami upgraded, the Patriots are struggling

626
00:30:52,800 --> 00:30:56,160
Speaker 1: with the transition from McDaniels, but the Patriots defense is

627
00:30:56,200 --> 00:30:59,040
Speaker 1: gonna show up. We don't know, have any idea how

628
00:30:59,080 --> 00:31:02,320
Speaker 1: Tua and these new you know, new pieces are gonna play.

629
00:31:02,480 --> 00:31:04,960
Speaker 1: New coaching staff, you know, Flores is gone, which was

630
00:31:04,960 --> 00:31:09,280
Speaker 1: always a good edge for Miami against Bill Belichick. And

631
00:31:10,000 --> 00:31:11,960
Speaker 1: it's also a week one, so everyone you know talks about,

632
00:31:12,000 --> 00:31:14,239
Speaker 1: you know, Patriots struggle going to Miami, but a lot

633
00:31:14,280 --> 00:31:16,480
Speaker 1: of times that's you know, middle of the season, they

634
00:31:16,600 --> 00:31:18,440
Speaker 1: kind of it's like a shock to the system. It's

635
00:31:18,520 --> 00:31:20,840
Speaker 1: they'll go to Miami in like December after they played

636
00:31:20,880 --> 00:31:23,960
Speaker 1: like eight straight cold weather games and it's it's a

637
00:31:24,000 --> 00:31:26,720
Speaker 1: lot harder. But now you talk about early in the year,

638
00:31:26,720 --> 00:31:29,040
Speaker 1: week one time and prepair, I just think you can

639
00:31:29,080 --> 00:31:31,400
Speaker 1: buy low. I like buying the dip on the Patriots here,

640
00:31:32,200 --> 00:31:34,000
Speaker 1: you know, with everyone kind of looking at them like,

641
00:31:34,000 --> 00:31:35,880
Speaker 1: oh my god, this offense is just it's just done,

642
00:31:35,920 --> 00:31:38,240
Speaker 1: it's over, and they got Patrician and Judge. You know,

643
00:31:38,280 --> 00:31:43,000
Speaker 1: Belichick's still thirty and fifteen sixty seven percent as a

644
00:31:43,080 --> 00:31:46,000
Speaker 1: dog in his career, so I wouldn't count off the Patriots,

645
00:31:46,040 --> 00:31:48,200
Speaker 1: And I just think this number is way too big

646
00:31:48,240 --> 00:31:50,880
Speaker 1: if you look like how important getting the hook is.

647
00:31:51,240 --> 00:31:55,160
Speaker 1: I went back and looked at divisional dogs getting three

648
00:31:55,480 --> 00:31:57,280
Speaker 1: versus getting three and a half, because we know divisional

649
00:31:57,280 --> 00:31:59,800
Speaker 1: games are close. If you get the plus three, you're

650
00:32:00,360 --> 00:32:03,920
Speaker 1: just break even, and the average cover margin is zero

651
00:32:04,000 --> 00:32:07,600
Speaker 1: point zero two, so essentially nothing, it's everything's even once

652
00:32:07,600 --> 00:32:10,080
Speaker 1: you get to if you get to three and a half,

653
00:32:10,280 --> 00:32:12,560
Speaker 1: you win fifty four percent of the time. The average

654
00:32:12,560 --> 00:32:15,880
Speaker 1: cover margin just over point five, about point five to four.

655
00:32:16,120 --> 00:32:19,640
Speaker 1: So that's what happens, is that that extra point is

656
00:32:19,640 --> 00:32:22,080
Speaker 1: always going to be massive in this type of matchup.

657
00:32:22,440 --> 00:32:24,640
Speaker 1: So I could see this game being coming down to

658
00:32:24,680 --> 00:32:27,200
Speaker 1: a field goal either way. But I'm just buying a

659
00:32:27,240 --> 00:32:30,360
Speaker 1: dip on the Patriots here against this unproven Miami teams

660
00:32:30,520 --> 00:32:34,160
Speaker 1: also missing a Byron Jones went on the uninjured list,

661
00:32:34,160 --> 00:32:38,120
Speaker 1: so like the team long term in Miami. But week one,

662
00:32:39,000 --> 00:32:40,200
Speaker 1: I'll buy the dip on New England.

663
00:32:41,080 --> 00:32:43,720
Speaker 2: I will save my thoughts for this game because I

664
00:32:43,720 --> 00:32:46,200
Speaker 2: have a play on the total, so I will move

665
00:32:46,240 --> 00:32:49,959
Speaker 2: on and give my third pick in the sixth overall

666
00:32:50,040 --> 00:32:54,040
Speaker 2: the Week one Sunday six pack, I'm going with the

667
00:32:54,080 --> 00:33:00,280
Speaker 2: Pittsburgh Steelers plus six and a half at the Bengals. Yes,

668
00:33:00,320 --> 00:33:03,520
Speaker 2: I'm betting on Mitch Trubisky. Mitch Bortles in Week one,

669
00:33:04,320 --> 00:33:08,800
Speaker 2: You've just been bortled. I have the Giants, the Texans,

670
00:33:09,240 --> 00:33:12,160
Speaker 2: and the Steelers. But of course I'm betting on the

671
00:33:12,160 --> 00:33:15,200
Speaker 2: Steelers here because Mike Tomlin is a road dog, and

672
00:33:15,280 --> 00:33:18,480
Speaker 2: Mike Tomlin as a dog has been almost an auto

673
00:33:18,480 --> 00:33:20,560
Speaker 2: bet for this podcast for years.

674
00:33:21,000 --> 00:33:23,160
Speaker 3: You ain't new to us no more, now you know

675
00:33:23,160 --> 00:33:23,560
Speaker 3: what I mean.

676
00:33:23,960 --> 00:33:27,160
Speaker 2: It's also a raw ra spot. We're playing the team

677
00:33:27,320 --> 00:33:31,440
Speaker 2: that that destroyed us by the way beat ten last year,

678
00:33:31,760 --> 00:33:33,880
Speaker 2: that went to the Super Bowl. Last year. We had

679
00:33:33,880 --> 00:33:37,400
Speaker 2: a disappointing year. We are going on the road. Let's

680
00:33:37,440 --> 00:33:40,720
Speaker 2: go troops. This is this is Tomlin territory. The raw

681
00:33:40,800 --> 00:33:41,840
Speaker 2: Rath spot right here.

682
00:33:42,360 --> 00:33:45,840
Speaker 1: What a raw ram Mike Tomlin spot.

683
00:33:46,200 --> 00:33:49,400
Speaker 3: We win the game with the cruel bodies right here today,

684
00:33:50,720 --> 00:33:52,320
Speaker 3: run you only game to day.

685
00:33:53,560 --> 00:33:55,600
Speaker 2: The Steelers, by the way, are forty seven to twenty

686
00:33:55,640 --> 00:33:57,680
Speaker 2: six and three against the spread as a dog under

687
00:33:57,680 --> 00:34:01,080
Speaker 2: Tomin sixty four point four, obviously number one out of

688
00:34:01,080 --> 00:34:05,600
Speaker 2: any coach since two thousand and three. Tomlin nineteen six

689
00:34:05,640 --> 00:34:09,360
Speaker 2: and two against the spread as a dog against the

690
00:34:09,440 --> 00:34:13,120
Speaker 2: AFC North. Do you know what that is? Seventy six percent,

691
00:34:13,960 --> 00:34:16,000
Speaker 2: seventy six nineteen six and two.

692
00:34:16,440 --> 00:34:18,480
Speaker 3: Guys that played for me, they can tell you. One

693
00:34:18,480 --> 00:34:20,480
Speaker 3: of my sayings I got a lot of sayings, is

694
00:34:20,920 --> 00:34:24,880
Speaker 3: don't seek comfort. Appreciate my resume is seeking comfort.

695
00:34:25,160 --> 00:34:27,120
Speaker 2: And for whatever reason you talked about the Super Bowl

696
00:34:27,160 --> 00:34:29,160
Speaker 2: hangover not being a thing with the winner the Super

697
00:34:29,160 --> 00:34:32,480
Speaker 2: Bowl losers four and eighteen against the spreads in two thousand. Now,

698
00:34:32,480 --> 00:34:35,040
Speaker 2: I don't put a lot of stockackers. I can't explain why,

699
00:34:35,440 --> 00:34:38,760
Speaker 2: but just throwing that out there now from a matchup stampoint,

700
00:34:38,760 --> 00:34:40,400
Speaker 2: that's all I need to say. Right there. Just Tomin

701
00:34:40,480 --> 00:34:42,160
Speaker 2: is a dog in a raw ro spot that was

702
00:34:42,200 --> 00:34:44,120
Speaker 2: good enough for me. It's not like I show a

703
00:34:44,160 --> 00:34:45,960
Speaker 2: ton of value in this number. Man.

704
00:34:46,000 --> 00:34:48,160
Speaker 3: We make the simple complex in this business, don't we.

705
00:34:48,320 --> 00:34:52,640
Speaker 2: Yeah, you have a divisional dog here not traveling far

706
00:34:53,200 --> 00:34:56,960
Speaker 2: catching over six and I'm gonna wait out so six

707
00:34:57,040 --> 00:34:58,239
Speaker 2: and a half of this kind of I'm gonna see

708
00:34:58,239 --> 00:34:59,560
Speaker 2: if it maybe ticks off. I don't think it will

709
00:34:59,600 --> 00:35:01,759
Speaker 2: to seven, but I'm holding out to see if I

710
00:35:01,800 --> 00:35:04,520
Speaker 2: can get a seven but a total of forty four

711
00:35:05,800 --> 00:35:07,720
Speaker 2: and I think this will be a lower scoring game.

712
00:35:08,160 --> 00:35:10,200
Speaker 2: Some things that I will throw out from a matchup perspective.

713
00:35:10,239 --> 00:35:12,280
Speaker 2: That did kind of push me over the edge, although

714
00:35:12,320 --> 00:35:15,080
Speaker 2: I don't need much to be pushed over an hour

715
00:35:15,120 --> 00:35:17,440
Speaker 2: round of Tomlins spot catching six and a half. I

716
00:35:17,440 --> 00:35:18,960
Speaker 2: love what the Bengals did in the off season. People

717
00:35:19,000 --> 00:35:22,160
Speaker 2: are writing off the Bengals too quickly with their offensive line,

718
00:35:22,520 --> 00:35:24,719
Speaker 2: and I think it'll pay dividends as the year goes on.

719
00:35:24,880 --> 00:35:27,960
Speaker 2: But there's four new starters on the offensive line, so

720
00:35:28,000 --> 00:35:30,879
Speaker 2: there could be some continuity issues, especially when you're going

721
00:35:30,920 --> 00:35:34,840
Speaker 2: up against arguably the best defensive line in the entire NFL,

722
00:35:35,040 --> 00:35:37,840
Speaker 2: and just that entire defensive front that is going to

723
00:35:37,840 --> 00:35:41,239
Speaker 2: get in the backfield against almost anybody. Tough assignment in

724
00:35:41,280 --> 00:35:43,400
Speaker 2: week one where you don't you just there's no real

725
00:35:43,760 --> 00:35:47,680
Speaker 2: continuity and real live game experience together as a unit yet,

726
00:35:48,080 --> 00:35:51,600
Speaker 2: so that potentially could be an issue the you know,

727
00:35:51,800 --> 00:35:54,920
Speaker 2: also the stealers. We talked about this with the Giants.

728
00:35:55,520 --> 00:35:58,839
Speaker 2: We talked about this with the Falcons with Mariota. Like,

729
00:35:58,920 --> 00:36:02,759
Speaker 2: now you have a new quarterback in Pittsburgh caause the

730
00:36:02,760 --> 00:36:05,640
Speaker 2: offensive line is a mess. Not gonna for the Steelers

731
00:36:06,960 --> 00:36:10,440
Speaker 2: and I'm gonna Deontay Johnson is questionable. Should throw that

732
00:36:10,480 --> 00:36:13,240
Speaker 2: out there as well. But Trubisky can use his legs

733
00:36:13,239 --> 00:36:17,879
Speaker 2: here and I'm assuming they will have many more new

734
00:36:18,040 --> 00:36:21,960
Speaker 2: packages r PO type plays that you couldn't run with

735
00:36:22,360 --> 00:36:26,239
Speaker 2: Roethlisberger the statue last year. Trubisky's legs could be an

736
00:36:26,239 --> 00:36:30,680
Speaker 2: asset here. But basically this is Tomlin Divisional game raw

737
00:36:30,760 --> 00:36:34,120
Speaker 2: ros spot week one on the road. That's all you

738
00:36:34,160 --> 00:36:34,560
Speaker 2: need to know.

739
00:36:35,239 --> 00:36:39,080
Speaker 3: Made an opportunity to get a quality dude at a

740
00:36:39,120 --> 00:36:42,600
Speaker 3: discount like what we're talking about.

741
00:36:42,080 --> 00:36:44,439
Speaker 1: It's happening. It feels like we're in Week one now.

742
00:36:44,520 --> 00:36:46,759
Speaker 1: You know, got a tom Win road Dug. You know,

743
00:36:46,840 --> 00:36:49,080
Speaker 1: that's kind of why I like the Steelers overall this year.

744
00:36:49,400 --> 00:36:51,759
Speaker 1: He's gonna be able to win some games that you

745
00:36:51,800 --> 00:36:54,360
Speaker 1: don't think he's gonna win. We'll see if it happens

746
00:36:54,400 --> 00:36:57,040
Speaker 1: this week, if they actually win it. But you know,

747
00:36:57,080 --> 00:37:00,120
Speaker 1: there's nothing to suggests that they can't hang with the

748
00:37:00,440 --> 00:37:03,359
Speaker 1: with the Cincinnati Bengals here, all right, So that's gonna

749
00:37:03,360 --> 00:37:06,120
Speaker 1: wrap up our Week one Sunday six pack to recap.

750
00:37:06,239 --> 00:37:09,640
Speaker 1: Stuck is going with the Texans plus seven and a half,

751
00:37:09,920 --> 00:37:12,759
Speaker 1: the Giants plus five and a half, and the Steelers

752
00:37:12,800 --> 00:37:15,560
Speaker 1: plus six and a half. I'm going with the Vikings

753
00:37:15,560 --> 00:37:18,440
Speaker 1: plus one and a half, the Falcons plus five and

754
00:37:18,480 --> 00:37:21,560
Speaker 1: a half, and the Patriots plus three and a half.

755
00:37:22,360 --> 00:37:26,520
Speaker 1: Now it's time for our Week one coaches pep talk.

756
00:37:27,000 --> 00:37:29,840
Speaker 1: Come on, all right, everybody, that's what I'm talking about. Guys.

757
00:37:29,840 --> 00:37:31,799
Speaker 1: We've made a great effort so far. Let's just keep

758
00:37:31,840 --> 00:37:33,000
Speaker 1: it up. That's right.

759
00:37:33,520 --> 00:37:36,319
Speaker 2: We can't have anyone freak out out there. Okay, we've

760
00:37:36,320 --> 00:37:37,640
Speaker 2: got k Mark Apolser.

761
00:37:38,040 --> 00:37:39,080
Speaker 1: We's got too far.

762
00:37:39,560 --> 00:37:42,960
Speaker 2: It's too much to look Polser.

763
00:37:43,120 --> 00:37:46,560
Speaker 1: Today's coaches pep Talk comes to us from Nicolas Cage

764
00:37:46,600 --> 00:37:51,919
Speaker 1: in the nineteen ninety seven film Tan Air, and we're

765
00:37:51,960 --> 00:37:55,080
Speaker 1: dedicating it to let's go with Carson Wentz.

766
00:37:55,120 --> 00:37:55,279
Speaker 2: Here.

767
00:37:55,640 --> 00:37:58,160
Speaker 1: I still don't know if I trust Carson Wentz. The

768
00:37:58,280 --> 00:38:02,319
Speaker 1: Jaguars are like the most public I believe on the suate.

769
00:38:02,480 --> 00:38:03,600
Speaker 2: So hilarious.

770
00:38:03,880 --> 00:38:06,440
Speaker 1: Let's see if let's see if Carson Wentz can actually

771
00:38:06,520 --> 00:38:09,160
Speaker 1: get it done, because this is the same defense that's

772
00:38:09,200 --> 00:38:12,319
Speaker 1: probably the reason you're on a new team, Carson. Those

773
00:38:12,360 --> 00:38:13,080
Speaker 1: type talks for you.

774
00:38:14,080 --> 00:38:16,560
Speaker 3: Sorry, boss, there's only two men I trust.

775
00:38:17,320 --> 00:38:20,439
Speaker 2: One of them was me. Yeah, it's not you. All right.

776
00:38:20,800 --> 00:38:22,719
Speaker 1: Now it's time for our favorite total of the week.

777
00:38:23,480 --> 00:38:25,840
Speaker 2: Yeah. I mentioned this game when you were talking about

778
00:38:26,200 --> 00:38:29,879
Speaker 2: your play on the Patriots catching three and a half

779
00:38:29,920 --> 00:38:32,440
Speaker 2: at Miami. I actually like the over here over forty

780
00:38:32,440 --> 00:38:35,960
Speaker 2: six this, Yeah, forty six or forty six and a

781
00:38:36,000 --> 00:38:37,960
Speaker 2: half doesn't matter for this contest, but always try to

782
00:38:38,239 --> 00:38:40,479
Speaker 2: chuck around and get the best number that you can.

783
00:38:41,320 --> 00:38:44,520
Speaker 2: I think that both of these offenses are going to

784
00:38:44,560 --> 00:38:47,200
Speaker 2: be improved. There's many reasons to think that in year two,

785
00:38:47,440 --> 00:38:50,719
Speaker 2: Mac Jones will be better off after what we saw

786
00:38:50,760 --> 00:38:53,279
Speaker 2: from him last year. I am a bit worried about

787
00:38:53,320 --> 00:38:55,160
Speaker 2: the play call, and we'll see what happens there, but

788
00:38:55,200 --> 00:38:58,359
Speaker 2: I tend to think that's a little overblown, especially early

789
00:38:58,440 --> 00:39:00,560
Speaker 2: on in the season, might end up working in their

790
00:39:00,600 --> 00:39:04,600
Speaker 2: favor for a game or two as well. Similarly, the

791
00:39:04,640 --> 00:39:08,000
Speaker 2: Dolphins offense I think could be significantly improved as well

792
00:39:08,120 --> 00:39:11,200
Speaker 2: with the weapons that they added, the offensive line, improvements

793
00:39:11,640 --> 00:39:15,280
Speaker 2: to his progress, many reasons. I think that the Dolphins

794
00:39:15,360 --> 00:39:18,920
Speaker 2: offense will take an enormous step forward. Conversely, I think

795
00:39:19,000 --> 00:39:21,680
Speaker 2: that both defenses can take are going to take a

796
00:39:21,800 --> 00:39:26,400
Speaker 2: major step back. And on the Patriot side, it's losing J. C. Jackson,

797
00:39:26,440 --> 00:39:29,160
Speaker 2: losing some couple of other key pieces in the front seven.

798
00:39:30,320 --> 00:39:33,520
Speaker 2: There's some questions on that defense. The secondary doesn't scare

799
00:39:33,560 --> 00:39:35,080
Speaker 2: you as much as it's done in the past, which

800
00:39:35,080 --> 00:39:37,640
Speaker 2: gives you the ability to do many other things. So

801
00:39:38,760 --> 00:39:41,520
Speaker 2: I think that the Patriots defense is going to drop

802
00:39:41,560 --> 00:39:43,640
Speaker 2: the offense will get better. And it's the same story

803
00:39:43,920 --> 00:39:47,640
Speaker 2: with the Dolphins, specifically this early in the year, because

804
00:39:47,640 --> 00:39:50,640
Speaker 2: you're missing Byron Jones. You also lost Trull Williams, who

805
00:39:50,719 --> 00:39:54,359
Speaker 2: they were hoping that he could contribute this year, second

806
00:39:54,440 --> 00:39:55,960
Speaker 2: year player out of Syracuse, but he's out for the

807
00:39:56,040 --> 00:39:58,360
Speaker 2: year with an injury. Nick Needham, who you're going to

808
00:39:58,600 --> 00:40:01,200
Speaker 2: need on the outside. He's dealing with an injury as well.

809
00:40:01,880 --> 00:40:08,359
Speaker 2: You're down to your guy Big Monogamy. You might need him,

810
00:40:08,400 --> 00:40:10,560
Speaker 2: you might need a cross in a rookie like it's

811
00:40:10,600 --> 00:40:15,120
Speaker 2: the secondary is not in great shape here, So I

812
00:40:15,160 --> 00:40:17,440
Speaker 2: think the Patriots can take advantage. And the Dolphins defense

813
00:40:17,480 --> 00:40:21,080
Speaker 2: in general, I think is overvalued. And not only do

814
00:40:21,160 --> 00:40:26,080
Speaker 2: you lose Brian Flores, I think would be an asset

815
00:40:26,120 --> 00:40:29,360
Speaker 2: to the Steelers and bring some nuance there, But I

816
00:40:29,480 --> 00:40:32,279
Speaker 2: just think in general, their statistical profile, what people think

817
00:40:32,320 --> 00:40:35,200
Speaker 2: of the Dolphins defense is so inflated by what they

818
00:40:35,200 --> 00:40:40,200
Speaker 2: did last year against just backup quarterbacks. Ready here there wins.

819
00:40:40,280 --> 00:40:45,720
Speaker 2: Last year it went nine to eight and book Mike Glennon,

820
00:40:46,560 --> 00:40:51,839
Speaker 2: Tyrod Taylor, Joe Flacco, Cam Newton, Lamar Jackson on three

821
00:40:52,120 --> 00:40:54,840
Speaker 2: four days rest, on that Thursday night game, Mac Jones

822
00:40:54,840 --> 00:40:57,400
Speaker 2: and his rookie debut, and then Mac Jones in the

823
00:40:57,480 --> 00:40:59,080
Speaker 2: last game of the year when the Patriots knew they

824
00:40:59,120 --> 00:41:01,160
Speaker 2: weren't playing for anything on the Bills were up. That's

825
00:41:01,200 --> 00:41:06,319
Speaker 2: it now. In their eight losses, they gave up an

826
00:41:06,400 --> 00:41:11,480
Speaker 2: average of thirty point seventy five points per game. All

827
00:41:11,520 --> 00:41:14,000
Speaker 2: eight teams got to at least twenty three points, five

828
00:41:14,080 --> 00:41:17,680
Speaker 2: got to at least thirty of those eight you had

829
00:41:17,719 --> 00:41:22,320
Speaker 2: the Falcons and the Jaguars included in that subset, So

830
00:41:22,320 --> 00:41:26,440
Speaker 2: it's all right. They were playing elite quarterbacks for all

831
00:41:26,480 --> 00:41:29,279
Speaker 2: eight of those games. So when they're not playing a

832
00:41:29,320 --> 00:41:32,799
Speaker 2: third or fourth string quarterback, which they did like four

833
00:41:32,880 --> 00:41:35,080
Speaker 2: or five times as you could see, and then you know,

834
00:41:35,239 --> 00:41:38,279
Speaker 2: get a rookie in his debut, like there's they had

835
00:41:38,280 --> 00:41:40,759
Speaker 2: a one of the most favorable schedules at quarterbacks you'll

836
00:41:40,760 --> 00:41:42,440
Speaker 2: ever see if you dig a little deeper. So I

837
00:41:42,440 --> 00:41:44,120
Speaker 2: think that their numbers is coming into the air and

838
00:41:44,160 --> 00:41:47,879
Speaker 2: their perception of perception of this Miami defense is way overinflated.

839
00:41:48,320 --> 00:41:51,080
Speaker 2: So I actually think this game ends up being higher

840
00:41:51,160 --> 00:41:54,440
Speaker 2: scoring than many think, and I think we get up

841
00:41:54,440 --> 00:41:57,319
Speaker 2: into the upper twenties here in a close game. I'll

842
00:41:57,320 --> 00:42:01,080
Speaker 2: call let's call it twenty seven to twenty four final Miami. Oh,

843
00:42:01,120 --> 00:42:02,719
Speaker 2: then you'll cover two, you'll cover three, and nine.

844
00:42:02,800 --> 00:42:06,279
Speaker 1: There we go. Yeah, I mean I definitely think that,

845
00:42:06,960 --> 00:42:09,280
Speaker 1: you know, both of these offenses are kind of getting

846
00:42:09,360 --> 00:42:12,560
Speaker 1: a little bit underlooked right now. I mean, especially the Patriots,

847
00:42:12,560 --> 00:42:15,279
Speaker 1: just because like that's probably where the value is it's

848
00:42:15,320 --> 00:42:17,279
Speaker 1: you know, that's probably keeping the number down because you know,

849
00:42:17,280 --> 00:42:19,879
Speaker 1: you look at Tyrek Hill. You know, I know they've

850
00:42:19,880 --> 00:42:22,239
Speaker 1: been having some issues with Yaseki, but you look at

851
00:42:22,239 --> 00:42:24,040
Speaker 1: Tyreek Hill you think, Okay, people are gonna think this

852
00:42:24,040 --> 00:42:27,560
Speaker 1: team is gonna score. But everyone's you know, we keep hearing, oh,

853
00:42:27,680 --> 00:42:29,560
Speaker 1: what's going on with the Patriots and they had that

854
00:42:29,600 --> 00:42:32,920
Speaker 1: bad preseason half. It's like it's doom and gloom in

855
00:42:33,480 --> 00:42:36,399
Speaker 1: New England and everyone's fans are worried. And I think

856
00:42:36,440 --> 00:42:40,080
Speaker 1: that's kind of what's keeping this number in check. So yeah,

857
00:42:40,080 --> 00:42:42,879
Speaker 1: I don't hate it at all. For my total, I'm

858
00:42:42,880 --> 00:42:47,720
Speaker 1: going with San Francisco Chicago under forty and a half

859
00:42:47,760 --> 00:42:51,719
Speaker 1: at FanDuel. Obviously, if you can find a forty one,

860
00:42:51,880 --> 00:42:54,880
Speaker 1: that would be ideal. Forty one is a key number.

861
00:42:54,880 --> 00:42:57,520
Speaker 1: But I think this game is going pretty well, and

862
00:42:58,000 --> 00:43:00,680
Speaker 1: the reason being is you look at the two quarterbacks.

863
00:43:00,920 --> 00:43:03,040
Speaker 1: You have Trey Lance on one side making his third start.

864
00:43:03,320 --> 00:43:05,759
Speaker 1: You have Justin Field's making his first start in this

865
00:43:05,840 --> 00:43:09,560
Speaker 1: new offense, you know, under the new coaching staff. So

866
00:43:10,239 --> 00:43:12,640
Speaker 1: you have two quarterbacks that I think you're gonna try

867
00:43:12,640 --> 00:43:15,960
Speaker 1: to protect a little bit, probably a lot of running.

868
00:43:16,160 --> 00:43:19,640
Speaker 1: And you look at Chicago, one of the worst offensive

869
00:43:19,640 --> 00:43:22,000
Speaker 1: lines in the league, and then San Francisco's got an

870
00:43:22,080 --> 00:43:25,719
Speaker 1: all new interior line as well. They got a two

871
00:43:25,760 --> 00:43:28,520
Speaker 1: new guards and a new center on the line for

872
00:43:28,920 --> 00:43:31,239
Speaker 1: San fran And then you look at you know, okay,

873
00:43:31,280 --> 00:43:33,840
Speaker 1: what's happening with these quarterbacks in the past. Lance is

874
00:43:33,840 --> 00:43:35,839
Speaker 1: two and oh towards the underfield is seven and three

875
00:43:35,880 --> 00:43:38,960
Speaker 1: towards the under So combined they are nine and three under.

876
00:43:39,400 --> 00:43:42,720
Speaker 1: And specifically with Trey Lance, well, I have high hopes

877
00:43:42,760 --> 00:43:46,880
Speaker 1: for him this year. Week one, you're going on the road.

878
00:43:47,080 --> 00:43:50,080
Speaker 1: You got the new interior line, three new offensive linemen.

879
00:43:50,800 --> 00:43:52,960
Speaker 1: I still think we're gonna see a pretty run heavy

880
00:43:52,960 --> 00:43:56,200
Speaker 1: approach from Kyle Shanahan. If you look at Lance's two

881
00:43:56,239 --> 00:43:59,920
Speaker 1: starts last year, San Francisco averaged only fifty nine plays

882
00:44:00,400 --> 00:44:02,839
Speaker 1: in those two starts, and their opponents only average sixty one.

883
00:44:02,920 --> 00:44:04,960
Speaker 1: So it wasn't like their opponents were just dominating ball

884
00:44:04,960 --> 00:44:07,160
Speaker 1: control and that's why they had a low number of plays.

885
00:44:07,160 --> 00:44:10,160
Speaker 1: So combined plays in the two games that Lance started

886
00:44:10,400 --> 00:44:13,120
Speaker 1: averaged only one hundred and twenty. That's about six to

887
00:44:13,239 --> 00:44:16,640
Speaker 1: seven below the league average. And I think you're gonna

888
00:44:16,640 --> 00:44:18,680
Speaker 1: see a similar story from both of these teams today.

889
00:44:18,680 --> 00:44:21,160
Speaker 1: I think you're gonna see a kind of slower paced,

890
00:44:21,800 --> 00:44:24,080
Speaker 1: you know, kind of protect the quarterback. Yeah, they'll do

891
00:44:24,120 --> 00:44:26,359
Speaker 1: some some creative things and roll guys out and take

892
00:44:26,360 --> 00:44:29,960
Speaker 1: some shots down the field. But San Francisco I think

893
00:44:30,080 --> 00:44:33,440
Speaker 1: can play. They can show up defensively. I like their

894
00:44:33,440 --> 00:44:36,600
Speaker 1: defense a lot. Jimmy Ward is out, but I still

895
00:44:36,600 --> 00:44:39,640
Speaker 1: think they have enough on the trenches, like you know,

896
00:44:39,800 --> 00:44:44,560
Speaker 1: Warner obviously in the middle, and then you know Chicago defensively, Yeah,

897
00:44:44,640 --> 00:44:47,480
Speaker 1: it's not gonna be a great defense. But again, I

898
00:44:47,520 --> 00:44:50,240
Speaker 1: just think San Francisco they're not gonna push the envelope

899
00:44:50,280 --> 00:44:53,000
Speaker 1: and go, you know, balls to the wall here in

900
00:44:53,080 --> 00:44:55,080
Speaker 1: a game that they're favored by seven on the road.

901
00:44:55,120 --> 00:44:57,279
Speaker 1: I think they're just gonna continue to play it very

902
00:44:57,360 --> 00:44:59,560
Speaker 1: run heavy. With Trey Lance, all their running backs are

903
00:44:59,560 --> 00:45:01,960
Speaker 1: actually hel for once, so they you know, they could

904
00:45:02,000 --> 00:45:04,359
Speaker 1: do you know, Kyle Shanahan could do a little bit

905
00:45:04,360 --> 00:45:06,520
Speaker 1: more with his running game than he's been able to do.

906
00:45:06,560 --> 00:45:08,120
Speaker 1: You know, like last year it was just okay, we

907
00:45:08,200 --> 00:45:09,799
Speaker 1: just got to put Debo back there and that's it.

908
00:45:10,160 --> 00:45:11,960
Speaker 1: But now you know, he can get pretty creative, he's

909
00:45:11,960 --> 00:45:14,760
Speaker 1: got Lance, he's got he's got a full stable running backs,

910
00:45:14,960 --> 00:45:17,440
Speaker 1: still got Debo. So I just think this is one

911
00:45:17,480 --> 00:45:20,560
Speaker 1: of those games where you could look up, it could

912
00:45:20,560 --> 00:45:22,439
Speaker 1: be like nearing halftime and it could be like six

913
00:45:22,480 --> 00:45:24,839
Speaker 1: to three, just because I just think both of these

914
00:45:24,840 --> 00:45:27,960
Speaker 1: teams are going to be run heavy, slower paced, and

915
00:45:28,120 --> 00:45:30,160
Speaker 1: just I think this game is just gonna have a

916
00:45:30,200 --> 00:45:32,480
Speaker 1: low amount of plays, so going under the forty and

917
00:45:32,520 --> 00:45:35,560
Speaker 1: a half. And by the way, George Kittle might actually

918
00:45:35,600 --> 00:45:38,640
Speaker 1: not play for San Francisco, which you know that that

919
00:45:38,680 --> 00:45:41,120
Speaker 1: makes it even a little bit tougher to do things

920
00:45:41,120 --> 00:45:43,920
Speaker 1: with Lance in both facets of the game. You know,

921
00:45:43,960 --> 00:45:46,759
Speaker 1: in the passing game, obviously you lose a guy over

922
00:45:46,800 --> 00:45:49,000
Speaker 1: the middle that takes some of the pressure off of

923
00:45:49,520 --> 00:45:52,680
Speaker 1: Samuel and Ayuk on the outside, but you also lose

924
00:45:52,719 --> 00:45:57,440
Speaker 1: one of your best walkers period, So just you know,

925
00:45:57,480 --> 00:45:59,439
Speaker 1: that could be a tough loss. And he's noncommittal about

926
00:45:59,440 --> 00:46:01,960
Speaker 1: playing as well, which it doesn't sound good, which is

927
00:46:01,960 --> 00:46:03,960
Speaker 1: why it dropped a half a point to the forty

928
00:46:03,960 --> 00:46:06,400
Speaker 1: and a half. But I just think this is going

929
00:46:06,480 --> 00:46:08,120
Speaker 1: to be one of those games where Week one is

930
00:46:08,160 --> 00:46:11,080
Speaker 1: just going to be not much going on. There kind

931
00:46:11,080 --> 00:46:13,279
Speaker 1: of the opposite of what happened the last times these

932
00:46:13,280 --> 00:46:15,359
Speaker 1: teams met. It was thirty three to twenty two. So

933
00:46:15,560 --> 00:46:18,200
Speaker 1: maybe some people will be hesitant, but again that was

934
00:46:18,200 --> 00:46:21,359
Speaker 1: with Garoppolo. With Lance, I just think, I just think

935
00:46:21,400 --> 00:46:22,960
Speaker 1: we're going to see a certain the same type of

936
00:46:23,000 --> 00:46:26,200
Speaker 1: game point we've seen in the past from Shanahan.

937
00:46:27,120 --> 00:46:28,800
Speaker 2: Yeah, this is my second favorite total. That's what I

938
00:46:28,800 --> 00:46:31,200
Speaker 2: would have went with if I didn't go Patriots over

939
00:46:31,920 --> 00:46:34,719
Speaker 2: the two slow teams with the experienced quarterbacks. You have

940
00:46:34,760 --> 00:46:37,000
Speaker 2: horrid offensive lines, like the Fortnite has got to figure

941
00:46:37,000 --> 00:46:38,759
Speaker 2: out their offensive line and it's not in good shape.

942
00:46:38,760 --> 00:46:40,719
Speaker 2: And now you might not have Kittle, who's arguably your

943
00:46:41,000 --> 00:46:44,680
Speaker 2: best blocker outside of Trent Williams, and he would be

944
00:46:44,680 --> 00:46:47,960
Speaker 2: a nice security blanket here for Lance, and I would

945
00:46:48,080 --> 00:46:51,480
Speaker 2: cut he will play. It's a hamstring right against the

946
00:46:51,480 --> 00:46:54,399
Speaker 2: Bears seven point favor Why risk it? Bears are also

947
00:46:54,440 --> 00:46:57,800
Speaker 2: dealing with injuries at center and wide receiver like it's

948
00:46:58,080 --> 00:47:01,560
Speaker 2: Mooney and oh god, don't see a downfield threat from

949
00:47:01,600 --> 00:47:05,439
Speaker 2: the Bears offense and Ibra fluse defensive guy think will

950
00:47:05,440 --> 00:47:08,120
Speaker 2: come up with a good game plan here in their

951
00:47:08,160 --> 00:47:10,480
Speaker 2: home opener, So I agree, it's just like twenty thirteen

952
00:47:10,520 --> 00:47:11,960
Speaker 2: written all over it, so.

953
00:47:12,280 --> 00:47:15,040
Speaker 1: That those are our favorite totals. We've got Patriots, Dolphins

954
00:47:15,040 --> 00:47:20,160
Speaker 1: over forty six and Niners Bears under forty and a half.

955
00:47:20,480 --> 00:47:23,000
Speaker 1: Let's jump into our favorite teasers of the week.

956
00:47:24,120 --> 00:47:28,680
Speaker 2: Oh yeah, six point teasers.

957
00:47:28,719 --> 00:47:33,799
Speaker 1: Don't team change, don't tease.

958
00:47:33,560 --> 00:47:36,000
Speaker 2: Me to please me.

959
00:47:40,680 --> 00:47:43,400
Speaker 1: All right? For anyone who is unfamiliar with teasers, it's

960
00:47:43,440 --> 00:47:46,520
Speaker 1: when you get a certain number of extra points to

961
00:47:46,600 --> 00:47:49,359
Speaker 1: your bet when you bet two or more teams. So

962
00:47:49,840 --> 00:47:52,279
Speaker 1: the standard is usually a six point teaser, which means

963
00:47:52,280 --> 00:47:56,040
Speaker 1: if you tease a seven point favorite with a six

964
00:47:56,080 --> 00:47:59,560
Speaker 1: point teaser, they become a one point favorite, and teasing

965
00:47:59,600 --> 00:48:02,239
Speaker 1: a point dog they'd become a thirteen point dog. So

966
00:48:02,840 --> 00:48:05,600
Speaker 1: there can be a lot of ways to do this profitably,

967
00:48:05,680 --> 00:48:07,719
Speaker 1: depending on what key numbers you're you're going through with

968
00:48:07,760 --> 00:48:10,920
Speaker 1: the teas. Stuck has great content out on that. If

969
00:48:10,920 --> 00:48:14,839
Speaker 1: you check out his work on actionnetwork dot com and uh,

970
00:48:15,400 --> 00:48:16,920
Speaker 1: let's jump into it wo you like.

971
00:48:17,800 --> 00:48:20,200
Speaker 2: Just search Stucky teaser you'll see my guy I go

972
00:48:20,360 --> 00:48:22,680
Speaker 2: all into the math of it. As always, you want

973
00:48:22,719 --> 00:48:24,680
Speaker 2: to get your best teaser priced. Some books are starting

974
00:48:24,680 --> 00:48:28,040
Speaker 2: to dynamically prices, which means, based on the numbers that

975
00:48:28,080 --> 00:48:29,719
Speaker 2: you cross, you might have to pay minus one forty

976
00:48:29,760 --> 00:48:32,160
Speaker 2: minus one fifty one minutes not worth it, But if

977
00:48:32,160 --> 00:48:34,080
Speaker 2: you can get minus one twenty minus one thirty is

978
00:48:34,080 --> 00:48:36,359
Speaker 2: about a break even if you can cross three and seven.

979
00:48:36,520 --> 00:48:39,760
Speaker 2: Those are the key numbers in the NFL lower scoring games.

980
00:48:39,840 --> 00:48:41,680
Speaker 2: Even more ideal if you can tease through the three

981
00:48:41,719 --> 00:48:44,719
Speaker 2: and seven because points are more at a premium, so

982
00:48:45,680 --> 00:48:47,840
Speaker 2: that the first one that comes up Browns Panther assist

983
00:48:47,880 --> 00:48:50,279
Speaker 2: line has gone to Panthers minus one and a half.

984
00:48:50,280 --> 00:48:52,640
Speaker 2: I think it's gone too far. Cheese the tease the

985
00:48:52,640 --> 00:48:55,040
Speaker 2: Browns over seven. By the way, the Browns haven't won

986
00:48:55,040 --> 00:48:57,000
Speaker 2: a Week one game since beating Kyle Boller back in

987
00:48:57,000 --> 00:48:59,400
Speaker 2: two thousand and four. They're, oh, sixteen and one and

988
00:48:59,800 --> 00:49:02,279
Speaker 2: we one. Unbelievable. But you don't need to win here.

989
00:49:02,280 --> 00:49:05,399
Speaker 2: He just got to stay within seven in a game

990
00:49:05,400 --> 00:49:08,480
Speaker 2: with a total that's in the low forties. Look, I

991
00:49:08,480 --> 00:49:10,719
Speaker 2: think the Browns have a coaching edge here. They also

992
00:49:10,840 --> 00:49:14,160
Speaker 2: know Baker's tendencies. The Browns defense will be the best

993
00:49:14,239 --> 00:49:16,879
Speaker 2: unit on the field in this game, and I think

994
00:49:16,880 --> 00:49:19,120
Speaker 2: they'll have some success running the ball with a new

995
00:49:19,160 --> 00:49:21,319
Speaker 2: look offense. They're gonna have some new wrinkles here that

996
00:49:21,680 --> 00:49:24,440
Speaker 2: we're supposed to be for Watson that Carolina might not

997
00:49:24,480 --> 00:49:27,040
Speaker 2: be ready for. So I think that there's some advantages

998
00:49:27,080 --> 00:49:29,719
Speaker 2: here for Cleveland as well. So I really like the

999
00:49:29,719 --> 00:49:33,239
Speaker 2: Browns teaser piece getting them over seven. I'm gonna pair

1000
00:49:33,280 --> 00:49:36,040
Speaker 2: them with the Cowboys plus eight and a half. This

1001
00:49:36,120 --> 00:49:38,000
Speaker 2: line has gone up to two and a half. Look,

1002
00:49:38,040 --> 00:49:40,279
Speaker 2: don't love the Cowboys this year, but I think that

1003
00:49:40,360 --> 00:49:42,720
Speaker 2: this is a good spot. The totals little higher. It's fifty,

1004
00:49:42,760 --> 00:49:44,560
Speaker 2: but I actually lean under here, which makes it a

1005
00:49:44,600 --> 00:49:47,600
Speaker 2: little more appealing. Look, Brady ripped apart Dallas last year,

1006
00:49:47,600 --> 00:49:49,600
Speaker 2: and Daft did the same in again thick game to

1007
00:49:49,640 --> 00:49:51,359
Speaker 2: finish like thirty one twenty eight. But if you look

1008
00:49:51,360 --> 00:49:53,000
Speaker 2: at everyone who did the damage in that game, they're

1009
00:49:53,000 --> 00:49:55,360
Speaker 2: all they're all not playing in this game. Or presumably

1010
00:49:55,400 --> 00:49:58,040
Speaker 2: Godwin might play, but I doubt it he'd be limited

1011
00:49:58,080 --> 00:50:01,400
Speaker 2: if he is. But he did practice today. Gronk, Antonio

1012
00:50:01,400 --> 00:50:06,120
Speaker 2: Brown went bananas, Amari Cooper went bonkers, Gallop had a

1013
00:50:06,200 --> 00:50:08,720
Speaker 2: huge game. They're all gone, Like the box SCORESS hilarious

1014
00:50:08,719 --> 00:50:10,560
Speaker 2: that if Govin doesn't play like no one who had

1015
00:50:10,560 --> 00:50:12,920
Speaker 2: a good Everyone who had a good game is not playing.

1016
00:50:13,120 --> 00:50:16,200
Speaker 2: But I loved how the Cowboys attacked the Bucks. They

1017
00:50:16,239 --> 00:50:18,080
Speaker 2: did not try to run the ball, which you can't

1018
00:50:18,120 --> 00:50:20,480
Speaker 2: do against Todd Bowles defense. I think the only ride

1019
00:50:20,480 --> 00:50:22,840
Speaker 2: at eighteen times and I think Dak through a fifty

1020
00:50:22,880 --> 00:50:26,760
Speaker 2: eight if my memory starts me correctly. So the Cowboys

1021
00:50:26,800 --> 00:50:32,080
Speaker 2: understood how to attack this Todd Bowles defense, which gives

1022
00:50:32,080 --> 00:50:34,799
Speaker 2: me confidence that they'll do the same this year. You know,

1023
00:50:34,840 --> 00:50:37,560
Speaker 2: Brady could struggle early in the season. He missed some time.

1024
00:50:37,680 --> 00:50:40,120
Speaker 2: That interier offensive line is going to take some time.

1025
00:50:40,840 --> 00:50:43,719
Speaker 2: You know, you can use Michael Parsons in company in

1026
00:50:43,760 --> 00:50:46,319
Speaker 2: some exotic ways to kind of get pressure up the

1027
00:50:46,360 --> 00:50:49,360
Speaker 2: middle on Brady. So there could be some disruptions on

1028
00:50:49,400 --> 00:50:53,080
Speaker 2: this offense. And look, like I said, Godwin is injured,

1029
00:50:53,400 --> 00:50:55,880
Speaker 2: maybe you'll play on a limited basis. There's no Gronk,

1030
00:50:56,200 --> 00:50:59,520
Speaker 2: there's no Antonio Brown, a lot of new pieces, especially

1031
00:50:59,520 --> 00:51:02,439
Speaker 2: in the offense of line. So the question it comes

1032
00:51:02,440 --> 00:51:04,200
Speaker 2: down to can Dact make enough plays with his now

1033
00:51:04,840 --> 00:51:08,600
Speaker 2: you know, healthy legs and a much younger receiver where

1034
00:51:08,600 --> 00:51:10,239
Speaker 2: it's like Ceede Lamb and then it's like you need

1035
00:51:10,280 --> 00:51:13,000
Speaker 2: Tolbert to really step up and then you know, some

1036
00:51:13,040 --> 00:51:16,000
Speaker 2: other talented pieces. But a lot more uncertainty than last

1037
00:51:16,040 --> 00:51:19,759
Speaker 2: year with this position since Scalp remains out. But so

1038
00:51:19,800 --> 00:51:21,719
Speaker 2: I don't know. I'm not confident enough to bet them

1039
00:51:21,719 --> 00:51:23,960
Speaker 2: plus two and a half, but I will happily tease

1040
00:51:24,000 --> 00:51:26,680
Speaker 2: this to plus eight and a half and the Browns

1041
00:51:26,680 --> 00:51:30,200
Speaker 2: to stayed within seven for my two teams six point teaser.

1042
00:51:31,400 --> 00:51:36,520
Speaker 1: For my teaser, I am going with the Baltimore Ravens,

1043
00:51:36,560 --> 00:51:39,239
Speaker 1: teasing them down from seven and a half to one

1044
00:51:39,239 --> 00:51:42,000
Speaker 1: and a half against the Jets and then the Niners

1045
00:51:42,040 --> 00:51:46,480
Speaker 1: from six and a half to a half against the Bears.

1046
00:51:47,480 --> 00:51:51,160
Speaker 1: Ravens is pretty simple. It's you know Lamar Jackson and

1047
00:51:52,040 --> 00:51:54,520
Speaker 1: you know this team going against Joe Flacco. I do

1048
00:51:54,560 --> 00:51:56,080
Speaker 1: think the Jets will be a little bit better. That's

1049
00:51:56,120 --> 00:51:58,880
Speaker 1: why I wouldn't I wouldn't weigh the seven and a

1050
00:51:58,920 --> 00:52:02,239
Speaker 1: half on the road. But we see the Ravens take

1051
00:52:02,560 --> 00:52:04,719
Speaker 1: having to take care of business in Week one. It

1052
00:52:04,760 --> 00:52:08,040
Speaker 1: didn't happen last year, but overall hardball is ten and

1053
00:52:08,080 --> 00:52:11,120
Speaker 1: four against the spread in Week one. I think the

1054
00:52:11,200 --> 00:52:12,759
Speaker 1: raven I don't know if the Ravens will be able

1055
00:52:12,800 --> 00:52:15,719
Speaker 1: to It might look sloppy, you know, because a lot

1056
00:52:15,760 --> 00:52:18,759
Speaker 1: of guys missed the preseason. You know, you're all these

1057
00:52:18,800 --> 00:52:22,400
Speaker 1: offensive pieces really haven't it kind of geled together. You

1058
00:52:22,440 --> 00:52:25,840
Speaker 1: have you know, Bateman and he's gonna do one, and

1059
00:52:25,960 --> 00:52:29,480
Speaker 1: you have Prochet who missed up some time, and we

1060
00:52:29,680 --> 00:52:32,560
Speaker 1: don't know what's going on Stanley and uh so just.

1061
00:52:33,320 --> 00:52:35,200
Speaker 2: This week, I think Stanley's gonna be good. To godb

1062
00:52:35,320 --> 00:52:36,040
Speaker 2: Dobbins is not.

1063
00:52:36,320 --> 00:52:38,520
Speaker 1: The running game. Got some new backs, so I think

1064
00:52:38,520 --> 00:52:40,080
Speaker 1: it could be able to slop you with Baltimore. I

1065
00:52:40,080 --> 00:52:43,399
Speaker 1: wouldn't lay the points, especially on the road. But at

1066
00:52:43,400 --> 00:52:46,680
Speaker 1: the same time, this Jets, this Jets offense, I still think,

1067
00:52:47,040 --> 00:52:48,920
Speaker 1: you know, it's gonna take some time. And now you

1068
00:52:48,960 --> 00:52:51,840
Speaker 1: have Joe Flacco in there, the defense should be a

1069
00:52:51,960 --> 00:52:55,360
Speaker 1: little bit better, I think. But overall, I think this

1070
00:52:55,480 --> 00:52:56,960
Speaker 1: another team that's gonna take a little bit of time.

1071
00:52:57,000 --> 00:52:59,120
Speaker 1: So I still feel good about the Ravens winning much

1072
00:52:59,200 --> 00:53:02,000
Speaker 1: rather tease him down and the way the points and

1073
00:53:02,040 --> 00:53:04,239
Speaker 1: then the Niners they obviously have their own concerns, which

1074
00:53:04,239 --> 00:53:06,279
Speaker 1: is why we're on the under in this game. But

1075
00:53:06,320 --> 00:53:09,120
Speaker 1: I still think overall, you know, they have enough just

1076
00:53:09,239 --> 00:53:13,160
Speaker 1: talent to handle the Bears. Again, it might be ugly,

1077
00:53:13,560 --> 00:53:15,520
Speaker 1: so you know, maybe they don't cover the seven even

1078
00:53:15,680 --> 00:53:17,520
Speaker 1: maybe it's more like a field goal or four or

1079
00:53:17,560 --> 00:53:19,839
Speaker 1: something like that. But you know, when you just look

1080
00:53:19,880 --> 00:53:23,359
Speaker 1: at the two rosters, the Niners have some upper tier

1081
00:53:23,400 --> 00:53:27,440
Speaker 1: talent on defense and same thing on offense, whereas the

1082
00:53:27,440 --> 00:53:30,600
Speaker 1: Bears just really kind of are lacking in that regard.

1083
00:53:30,680 --> 00:53:33,120
Speaker 1: So like both of these teams to win, but maybe

1084
00:53:33,120 --> 00:53:36,920
Speaker 1: a little bit uglier than people think. So Baltimore minus

1085
00:53:36,920 --> 00:53:38,800
Speaker 1: one and a half, Niners minus a half.

1086
00:53:39,360 --> 00:53:43,799
Speaker 2: It's Baltimore, gentlemen. The gods will not save you. Yeah,

1087
00:53:43,880 --> 00:53:46,359
Speaker 2: don't hate the Ravens. Thirty two and twelve straight up,

1088
00:53:46,400 --> 00:53:49,400
Speaker 2: including twenty seven to fifteen to two against the spread

1089
00:53:49,600 --> 00:53:52,120
Speaker 2: with at least ten days of prep under Harball. That

1090
00:53:52,200 --> 00:53:55,719
Speaker 2: includes week one and you mentioned Harball ten and four

1091
00:53:56,160 --> 00:53:58,400
Speaker 2: against the spread and season openers. That makes him the

1092
00:53:58,440 --> 00:54:00,960
Speaker 2: most profitable of one hundred and twenty seven coaches in

1093
00:54:00,960 --> 00:54:04,840
Speaker 2: our Action Labs database since two thousand and three. You know,

1094
00:54:04,960 --> 00:54:07,000
Speaker 2: just a flack over revenge game with the Ravens defense

1095
00:54:07,040 --> 00:54:09,680
Speaker 2: is now healthy. Looks like Marcus Peters is going to

1096
00:54:09,719 --> 00:54:12,080
Speaker 2: be a go. I think the line's about right, so

1097
00:54:12,280 --> 00:54:14,279
Speaker 2: I don't mind a teaser piece. I probably might have

1098
00:54:14,320 --> 00:54:16,719
Speaker 2: him in the money line parlay or a teaser like

1099
00:54:16,760 --> 00:54:19,399
Speaker 2: you did. Curious to see what new looks. Greg Roman

1100
00:54:19,440 --> 00:54:21,680
Speaker 2: has an offense, but the Jets is the Jets defense

1101
00:54:22,280 --> 00:54:24,839
Speaker 2: ready for Lamar's speed, which is a concern, Like they're

1102
00:54:24,840 --> 00:54:28,200
Speaker 2: probably trying to get Flacco as many reps as possible

1103
00:54:28,600 --> 00:54:31,920
Speaker 2: with the Ones and go against their defense, Like you're

1104
00:54:31,960 --> 00:54:34,560
Speaker 2: going from facing Joe Flako to Lamar Jackson a little

1105
00:54:34,600 --> 00:54:37,480
Speaker 2: bit of a shock right off the bat in week one.

1106
00:54:38,080 --> 00:54:40,480
Speaker 2: Ravens historically have taken care of business in these games.

1107
00:54:40,520 --> 00:54:43,280
Speaker 2: So and yeah, I think the Bears are just step Brossters,

1108
00:54:43,320 --> 00:54:44,360
Speaker 2: just void of talent.

1109
00:54:44,480 --> 00:54:47,279
Speaker 1: So like it, all right, So that's gonna do it

1110
00:54:47,320 --> 00:54:50,279
Speaker 1: for our teasers again. Stuck has a Cleveland plus seven

1111
00:54:50,320 --> 00:54:51,880
Speaker 1: and a half, Dallas plus eight and a half, and

1112
00:54:51,920 --> 00:54:54,799
Speaker 1: I have Baltimore minus one and a half forty nine

1113
00:54:54,880 --> 00:54:59,040
Speaker 1: Ers minus a half point. Let us now jump in

1114
00:54:59,040 --> 00:55:04,840
Speaker 1: to our money lie underdog Barley.

1115
00:55:04,800 --> 00:55:09,759
Speaker 2: Turning good weekends into great weekends. It's time for the

1116
00:55:09,920 --> 00:55:11,719
Speaker 2: money line parlay.

1117
00:55:12,239 --> 00:55:14,719
Speaker 1: All right. So this is the segment of a pod

1118
00:55:14,760 --> 00:55:17,560
Speaker 1: where we each choose the money line underdog. You guys

1119
00:55:17,600 --> 00:55:20,280
Speaker 1: can obviously just bet them individually, but for the purposes

1120
00:55:20,280 --> 00:55:23,120
Speaker 1: of the show, we like to parlay and see what happens.

1121
00:55:23,160 --> 00:55:24,680
Speaker 1: So where are you going, stuck?

1122
00:55:25,239 --> 00:55:28,000
Speaker 2: You know where I'm going. I'm going the g Men. Look,

1123
00:55:28,040 --> 00:55:31,440
Speaker 2: I'm hiring the Giants, and the market lower than the

1124
00:55:31,480 --> 00:55:36,120
Speaker 2: Titans and low total game here increases the variance, and

1125
00:55:36,160 --> 00:55:38,279
Speaker 2: I don't think the Titans can take advantage of some

1126
00:55:38,320 --> 00:55:41,480
Speaker 2: of the areas that I'm most concerned about with the Giants.

1127
00:55:41,480 --> 00:55:45,000
Speaker 2: The loss of Harold Landry, the loss of aj Brown weekends,

1128
00:55:45,040 --> 00:55:48,440
Speaker 2: this pass rush weekens, this wide receiver corps. Those are

1129
00:55:48,480 --> 00:55:50,040
Speaker 2: the two areas that I'm worried about with the Giants,

1130
00:55:50,040 --> 00:55:54,000
Speaker 2: the offensive line and their second corner spot road Daniel Jones, Baby,

1131
00:55:54,200 --> 00:55:57,359
Speaker 2: give me the g men outright, big, big improvement You'll

1132
00:55:57,400 --> 00:55:58,759
Speaker 2: see on the sidelines this year.

1133
00:55:59,160 --> 00:56:03,120
Speaker 1: I'm gonna go with the Jacksonville Jaguars and they're plus

1134
00:56:03,200 --> 00:56:06,279
Speaker 1: one twenty. And you know what I like to do.

1135
00:56:06,680 --> 00:56:09,640
Speaker 1: I like to make Carson Wentz prove himself and he

1136
00:56:10,080 --> 00:56:12,080
Speaker 1: hasn't been able to do it time and time again

1137
00:56:12,960 --> 00:56:15,920
Speaker 1: in key spots. And one of them, as many remember,

1138
00:56:16,360 --> 00:56:19,600
Speaker 1: was against the same Jags. D Now, obviously it's a

1139
00:56:19,640 --> 00:56:22,400
Speaker 1: newk team, new look you know, coordinators and all that,

1140
00:56:22,520 --> 00:56:25,640
Speaker 1: so it's not really the same matchup, but the Jaguars

1141
00:56:25,680 --> 00:56:27,960
Speaker 1: are gonna still come out with confidence, believe me. And

1142
00:56:28,800 --> 00:56:31,279
Speaker 1: when you combine all the things that the Jaguars have

1143
00:56:31,360 --> 00:56:35,399
Speaker 1: worked in their favor, you know, the obviously getting away

1144
00:56:35,440 --> 00:56:39,000
Speaker 1: from Urban Meyer to a competent coaching staff and Doug

1145
00:56:39,040 --> 00:56:42,200
Speaker 1: Peterson who's won a Super Bowl, second year elite for

1146
00:56:42,239 --> 00:56:45,480
Speaker 1: Lawrence just anyway, I think they added you know, some

1147
00:56:45,560 --> 00:56:48,120
Speaker 1: decent pieces on all I mean, they obviously overspent just

1148
00:56:48,160 --> 00:56:50,520
Speaker 1: in general and free agency, but he still added talent

1149
00:56:50,560 --> 00:56:52,719
Speaker 1: to the roster. That's all we care about for a

1150
00:56:52,760 --> 00:56:55,480
Speaker 1: bet like this. You know you got you know, Christian

1151
00:56:55,520 --> 00:56:59,640
Speaker 1: Kirk att wide receiver. You got Walker on defense and

1152
00:56:59,719 --> 00:57:03,440
Speaker 1: low and you know you got Etn coming back off

1153
00:57:03,440 --> 00:57:07,960
Speaker 1: the injury. You have a sheriff on the offensive line,

1154
00:57:08,600 --> 00:57:12,439
Speaker 1: so you know, there's enough of a talent infusion here

1155
00:57:12,719 --> 00:57:16,960
Speaker 1: where I don't think the disparity between these two teams

1156
00:57:17,120 --> 00:57:20,400
Speaker 1: is as great as as people think, you know, even

1157
00:57:20,440 --> 00:57:23,240
Speaker 1: going on the road, because you know, Washington one of

1158
00:57:23,280 --> 00:57:29,880
Speaker 1: the smallest, most negligible non LA home field advantages in

1159
00:57:29,960 --> 00:57:33,080
Speaker 1: the National Football League, So you know, I'm not really

1160
00:57:33,160 --> 00:57:34,840
Speaker 1: Oh my god, the Jaguars are going on the road.

1161
00:57:34,880 --> 00:57:36,360
Speaker 1: This is gonna be a tough game. Like No, the

1162
00:57:36,440 --> 00:57:39,240
Speaker 1: Jaguars like they could. They could certainly win this game.

1163
00:57:39,240 --> 00:57:41,280
Speaker 1: And I think with the number down to two and

1164
00:57:41,280 --> 00:57:43,760
Speaker 1: a half, you might as well just take the money

1165
00:57:43,760 --> 00:57:45,920
Speaker 1: line here. You know, it's if it was. If it

1166
00:57:45,920 --> 00:57:48,480
Speaker 1: gets back to three, then I don't hate taking the spread,

1167
00:57:48,520 --> 00:57:52,200
Speaker 1: but it may not. And because again the Jags. Everyone

1168
00:57:52,280 --> 00:57:54,520
Speaker 1: seems to be on the Jags, but I think there's

1169
00:57:54,560 --> 00:57:57,160
Speaker 1: actually a good reason for it. I think they have

1170
00:57:57,440 --> 00:57:59,720
Speaker 1: a good shot at winning this one. I still don't

1171
00:57:59,720 --> 00:58:02,320
Speaker 1: trust that Washington defense. I don't know. Jack del Rio

1172
00:58:02,480 --> 00:58:05,720
Speaker 1: just hasn't been able to maximize that talent. Obviously, Chase

1173
00:58:05,760 --> 00:58:09,440
Speaker 1: Young isn't going to be on the field, and you know,

1174
00:58:09,520 --> 00:58:13,840
Speaker 1: still have issues at cornerback outside of Fuller, so you

1175
00:58:13,880 --> 00:58:16,920
Speaker 1: know linebacker as well. Running back you plan to use

1176
00:58:16,920 --> 00:58:19,720
Speaker 1: between the tackles is unfortunately going to be out to

1177
00:58:19,960 --> 00:58:23,160
Speaker 1: going back to Gibson, a guy who didn't want to overwork.

1178
00:58:23,280 --> 00:58:24,920
Speaker 1: And you have first game with a new quarterback. So

1179
00:58:25,600 --> 00:58:28,640
Speaker 1: this is no sure bet, you know, for Washington here,

1180
00:58:29,040 --> 00:58:32,040
Speaker 1: and I make this line even smaller, but because I

1181
00:58:32,080 --> 00:58:35,840
Speaker 1: can't get the three. I love them as a moneyline dog.

1182
00:58:36,640 --> 00:58:38,720
Speaker 2: Yeah, I would have bet the Jags at four, and

1183
00:58:38,760 --> 00:58:42,080
Speaker 2: this came down unfortunately Mark got ahead of me. So yeah,

1184
00:58:42,080 --> 00:58:44,400
Speaker 2: the jack should be improved from a coaching perspective too,

1185
00:58:45,200 --> 00:58:48,320
Speaker 2: with their staff overall, both at the head coaching and

1186
00:58:48,400 --> 00:58:51,360
Speaker 2: coordinator levels. So I don't hate it, all right.

1187
00:58:52,320 --> 00:58:54,400
Speaker 1: Plus one ninety eight for the Giants plus one twenty

1188
00:58:54,440 --> 00:58:56,840
Speaker 1: for the Jags that would pay up five and a

1189
00:58:56,920 --> 00:58:59,720
Speaker 1: half x, so one hundred dollars would get you six

1190
00:59:00,160 --> 00:59:04,840
Speaker 1: fifty five. All right, let's jump into best of the rest,

1191
00:59:04,880 --> 00:59:07,000
Speaker 1: which are the games that we didn't break down in

1192
00:59:07,000 --> 00:59:09,640
Speaker 1: any other segment. We'll run through these quickly. You have

1193
00:59:09,760 --> 00:59:12,640
Speaker 1: the Eagles at the Lions. The line is three and

1194
00:59:12,640 --> 00:59:14,480
Speaker 1: a half in favor of Philly on the road. The

1195
00:59:14,520 --> 00:59:18,680
Speaker 1: total is forty eight and a half. Two preseason Darwings

1196
00:59:18,680 --> 00:59:19,439
Speaker 1: facing off here.

1197
00:59:19,400 --> 00:59:24,120
Speaker 2: Yeap, hype bowl nothing here. The line's probably about right.

1198
00:59:25,160 --> 00:59:27,040
Speaker 2: And these are two teams that I might have wanted

1199
00:59:27,080 --> 00:59:29,560
Speaker 2: to fade early on because of all the like I

1200
00:59:29,640 --> 00:59:31,600
Speaker 2: like what the Eagles did, and I like what like

1201
00:59:31,720 --> 00:59:33,880
Speaker 2: Dan Campbell, like some of the things the Lions are doing.

1202
00:59:34,480 --> 00:59:36,520
Speaker 2: But they were getting so much love. Like everyone's Super

1203
00:59:36,560 --> 00:59:39,520
Speaker 2: Bowl pick is now the Eagles and the hard Knocks.

1204
00:59:39,520 --> 00:59:41,200
Speaker 2: Everyone loves the lines now. I think they are the

1205
00:59:41,240 --> 00:59:43,360
Speaker 2: most tickets to go to the playoffs, and the Eagles

1206
00:59:43,360 --> 00:59:44,840
Speaker 2: are the most tickets to win the Super Bowl, but

1207
00:59:44,840 --> 00:59:47,600
Speaker 2: they're playing each other. I am concerned a bit about

1208
00:59:47,960 --> 00:59:52,120
Speaker 2: the line secondary year, yes, which should be a major issue.

1209
00:59:52,440 --> 00:59:54,760
Speaker 2: And we'll learn a lot about Hurts because he should

1210
00:59:54,800 --> 00:59:57,720
Speaker 2: be able to exploit this Detroit secondary. And then I'm

1211
00:59:57,760 --> 00:59:59,920
Speaker 2: also right about the Detroit offensive line here because that

1212
01:00:00,000 --> 01:00:02,360
Speaker 2: should be one of their strengths. By Tie is out,

1213
01:00:02,400 --> 01:00:06,560
Speaker 2: their starting guard, he was just put on. Ir Cable

1214
01:00:06,600 --> 01:00:10,480
Speaker 2: still doesn't name the starter he's talking about because the backup, Kramer,

1215
01:00:10,960 --> 01:00:13,480
Speaker 2: the kid out of Purdue, wasn't at practice. I don't

1216
01:00:13,560 --> 01:00:16,120
Speaker 2: he might be hurt too. So they've been talking about

1217
01:00:16,120 --> 01:00:19,320
Speaker 2: potentially moving Soul to guard or this or rag Now

1218
01:00:19,360 --> 01:00:22,000
Speaker 2: to guard, and now all of a sudden, the week

1219
01:00:22,040 --> 01:00:26,360
Speaker 2: before the game against a good defensive front, you're moving

1220
01:00:26,360 --> 01:00:28,160
Speaker 2: all these offensive line pieces that's supposed to be the

1221
01:00:28,160 --> 01:00:30,120
Speaker 2: strength of your team. So I'm a bit worried about

1222
01:00:30,120 --> 01:00:32,360
Speaker 2: the offensive line as well. So yeah, this is just

1223
01:00:32,400 --> 01:00:35,240
Speaker 2: the hype ball between two teams that were hyped the

1224
01:00:35,240 --> 01:00:37,000
Speaker 2: off season. Have they playing each other in Week one?

1225
01:00:37,320 --> 01:00:40,080
Speaker 2: Eagles went, I believe, into Detroit last year, won forty

1226
01:00:40,080 --> 01:00:42,160
Speaker 2: four to six. I think it'll be a lot more

1227
01:00:42,200 --> 01:00:44,520
Speaker 2: competitive than that. I might look about this game live

1228
01:00:44,640 --> 01:00:46,360
Speaker 2: pass pre game yep.

1229
01:00:46,520 --> 01:00:50,360
Speaker 1: I like with the with the Lion's offensive prospects they're

1230
01:00:50,360 --> 01:00:53,000
Speaker 1: looking like but with the with the O line issues

1231
01:00:53,040 --> 01:00:57,000
Speaker 1: as you mentioned, suddenly it doesn't look as tempting, especially

1232
01:00:57,040 --> 01:00:59,560
Speaker 1: with you know, as much improvement as Philly made on

1233
01:00:59,600 --> 01:01:02,520
Speaker 1: defense but still not weighing, you know, three and a

1234
01:01:02,560 --> 01:01:06,080
Speaker 1: half four on the road with this Philly team this

1235
01:01:06,240 --> 01:01:10,560
Speaker 1: early in the year. Let's go to Vegas at the Chargers.

1236
01:01:10,640 --> 01:01:13,720
Speaker 1: Chargers by three and a half. The total is fifty

1237
01:01:13,720 --> 01:01:16,200
Speaker 1: two and a half. And this Vegas team is another

1238
01:01:16,240 --> 01:01:18,360
Speaker 1: one that kind of fits those divisional dog trends. Now

1239
01:01:18,360 --> 01:01:21,480
Speaker 1: you got J. C. Jackson out. Everyone loves the Chargers.

1240
01:01:21,480 --> 01:01:23,840
Speaker 1: I love the Chargers. I think they're much improved. But

1241
01:01:24,840 --> 01:01:27,640
Speaker 1: it's I think this game could be another one of those,

1242
01:01:27,920 --> 01:01:29,840
Speaker 1: just you know, Week one a little bit closer than

1243
01:01:30,240 --> 01:01:31,040
Speaker 1: than people think.

1244
01:01:31,600 --> 01:01:33,320
Speaker 2: Maybe I'll bet the Chargers live. This game might be

1245
01:01:33,320 --> 01:01:36,200
Speaker 2: back and forth, But what are the two the two.

1246
01:01:37,280 --> 01:01:39,320
Speaker 2: What were the three strengths of the Raiders team? What

1247
01:01:39,480 --> 01:01:43,920
Speaker 2: you said? Arguably Devanta Adams, Max Crosby coming off the edge,

1248
01:01:44,200 --> 01:01:47,000
Speaker 2: Darren Waller, right, those three guys are up there. Chargers

1249
01:01:47,000 --> 01:01:50,080
Speaker 2: struggle to cover tight ends. J. C. Jackson is out,

1250
01:01:50,640 --> 01:01:53,880
Speaker 2: who would who would shadow Devanta Adams if he was playing?

1251
01:01:54,200 --> 01:01:56,600
Speaker 2: And your right tackle. I'm glad that they were going

1252
01:01:56,640 --> 01:01:59,800
Speaker 2: to go Pipkins, but your right tackle is going to

1253
01:01:59,840 --> 01:02:04,440
Speaker 2: get Max Crosby in two and twenty two, Says twenty

1254
01:02:04,480 --> 01:02:09,760
Speaker 2: twenty and twenty twenty. Early in the year, Pipkins got abused,

1255
01:02:09,920 --> 01:02:12,360
Speaker 2: abused by Crosby. They made Crosby and Pharaoh look like

1256
01:02:12,400 --> 01:02:15,000
Speaker 2: Hall of Famers in that game. It was I forget

1257
01:02:15,000 --> 01:02:18,040
Speaker 2: who it was. Tabby and Biggings got abused and they

1258
01:02:18,120 --> 01:02:20,360
Speaker 2: lost that game. Crosby didn't play in the other game.

1259
01:02:20,440 --> 01:02:22,280
Speaker 2: He was hurt later on in the year, but he

1260
01:02:22,360 --> 01:02:24,880
Speaker 2: abused Pipkins that whole game. So from a matchup perspective,

1261
01:02:24,880 --> 01:02:27,200
Speaker 2: I'm worried with you would have Jackson for Adams. It's

1262
01:02:27,240 --> 01:02:29,520
Speaker 2: good you're right tackle. At least you have a good

1263
01:02:29,640 --> 01:02:31,280
Speaker 2: you know your left side is better now as you

1264
01:02:31,280 --> 01:02:33,760
Speaker 2: can give help. But that could be a major issue

1265
01:02:33,760 --> 01:02:36,440
Speaker 2: and Waller could have a big game here, So yeah,

1266
01:02:36,440 --> 01:02:38,320
Speaker 2: I would like three. This is the revenge bole, by

1267
01:02:38,400 --> 01:02:41,360
Speaker 2: the way, for what happened last year when they both

1268
01:02:41,360 --> 01:02:44,160
Speaker 2: could have made the playoffs but the Raiders ended up winning.

1269
01:02:44,320 --> 01:02:46,000
Speaker 2: So I'm sure that's on the mind of the Chargers,

1270
01:02:46,000 --> 01:02:47,840
Speaker 2: but the Raiders. A division game for the Raiders, like,

1271
01:02:47,840 --> 01:02:51,120
Speaker 2: are they not going to be just as motivated? So yeah,

1272
01:02:51,120 --> 01:02:53,040
Speaker 2: if I could get like a flat three or below,

1273
01:02:53,080 --> 01:02:55,320
Speaker 2: I would look at the Chargers. Again, not much of

1274
01:02:55,400 --> 01:02:57,560
Speaker 2: them field here, but as of right now, probably look

1275
01:02:57,640 --> 01:03:00,160
Speaker 2: live and uh for it's a pass.

1276
01:03:00,160 --> 01:03:03,000
Speaker 1: Now, yeah, I'd probably the other way, like I'm I'm

1277
01:03:03,040 --> 01:03:05,440
Speaker 1: already kind of weaning Raiders, and I might have I

1278
01:03:05,480 --> 01:03:08,000
Speaker 1: might end up jumping in obviously followed me in the app,

1279
01:03:08,040 --> 01:03:10,160
Speaker 1: but just another one of these games where you know,

1280
01:03:10,160 --> 01:03:12,280
Speaker 1: maybe if it was in a different time but week one,

1281
01:03:12,360 --> 01:03:14,920
Speaker 1: I just think I thought this spread should have been

1282
01:03:15,040 --> 01:03:18,800
Speaker 1: right around three. So it teams that would have inflated

1283
01:03:18,800 --> 01:03:22,040
Speaker 1: to me, especially with Jackson out. Speaking of inflated lines,

1284
01:03:22,360 --> 01:03:25,400
Speaker 1: we got Kansas City going to Arizona. The line is

1285
01:03:25,440 --> 01:03:27,560
Speaker 1: up to six at some books, at fanduits five and

1286
01:03:27,600 --> 01:03:29,600
Speaker 1: a half, the total is fifty three and a half.

1287
01:03:30,480 --> 01:03:32,240
Speaker 1: We know Andy Reid is good in week oney six

1288
01:03:32,240 --> 01:03:36,800
Speaker 1: and three against the spread. JJ Watt questionable now and

1289
01:03:37,040 --> 01:03:40,720
Speaker 1: obviously the Cardinals will be with the Hopkins. So a

1290
01:03:40,720 --> 01:03:42,800
Speaker 1: lot of sharp action teams to have come in on KC.

1291
01:03:43,680 --> 01:03:44,720
Speaker 1: What do you think about this one?

1292
01:03:45,240 --> 01:03:49,360
Speaker 2: I'm pissed. I had Kansasity minus three lined up to bet.

1293
01:03:49,840 --> 01:03:51,600
Speaker 2: Mainly it was I think the Chiefs were eight and

1294
01:03:51,600 --> 01:03:55,240
Speaker 2: one in the openery big coaching mismatch here in the opener,

1295
01:03:55,440 --> 01:03:58,240
Speaker 2: any reverse clip Kingsbury. I had it all fired up

1296
01:03:58,240 --> 01:03:59,560
Speaker 2: and I was just waiting. I was like, let me

1297
01:03:59,640 --> 01:04:02,400
Speaker 2: see if this wonder if the Cardinals will ticket and

1298
01:04:02,440 --> 01:04:04,720
Speaker 2: then the Chiefs just got hammered. I missed the number.

1299
01:04:04,960 --> 01:04:07,120
Speaker 2: Arizona injuries are bad. I mean you have Golden is

1300
01:04:07,120 --> 01:04:11,480
Speaker 2: also questionable. Watt is questionable, which means your defensive front

1301
01:04:11,640 --> 01:04:14,280
Speaker 2: could be This could be your starting defensive front. Gardick

1302
01:04:14,760 --> 01:04:20,080
Speaker 2: Alan Lawrence, Dogby Knard like that's bad against Mahomes. You're

1303
01:04:20,120 --> 01:04:22,600
Speaker 2: also Hamilton their second corner. He won the job a

1304
01:04:22,720 --> 01:04:26,200
Speaker 2: remarco Wilson in camp. He's out due to a cooking accident.

1305
01:04:26,600 --> 01:04:28,920
Speaker 2: They got it there. They're they're relying on raiders cast off.

1306
01:04:28,960 --> 01:04:32,240
Speaker 2: Trayvon Mullen has been awful either or like a Jets

1307
01:04:32,280 --> 01:04:35,000
Speaker 2: cast off or like a rookie like. The secondary is

1308
01:04:35,040 --> 01:04:37,960
Speaker 2: in bad shape, especially when you consider the front seven

1309
01:04:38,560 --> 01:04:41,320
Speaker 2: is missing some key players. That's not great when you're

1310
01:04:41,320 --> 01:04:43,880
Speaker 2: going against Mahomes and the Chiefs are mainly healthy. Across

1311
01:04:43,880 --> 01:04:46,920
Speaker 2: the board, I think Read said today everybody practiced. Also Hudson,

1312
01:04:47,040 --> 01:04:50,160
Speaker 2: they're starting center, is questionable. He might not play. Zach

1313
01:04:50,280 --> 01:04:53,000
Speaker 2: Ertz he practiced to assume will play, but he's questionable.

1314
01:04:53,240 --> 01:04:55,400
Speaker 2: Cardinals is beat up across the board. Big coach ging

1315
01:04:55,480 --> 01:04:58,440
Speaker 2: mismatch here. I think the Chiefs get it done. That's

1316
01:04:58,440 --> 01:05:01,480
Speaker 2: a segue into and I think the line's about right now.

1317
01:05:01,440 --> 01:05:03,160
Speaker 2: I can use them in a money on Parlafe piece

1318
01:05:03,320 --> 01:05:05,520
Speaker 2: or the Survivor pick, which I'm doing.

1319
01:05:06,080 --> 01:05:08,840
Speaker 1: I's to jump into our final segment, which is our

1320
01:05:08,840 --> 01:05:10,040
Speaker 1: Survivor pick of the week.

1321
01:05:16,160 --> 01:05:18,960
Speaker 3: The Survivor Pool pick of the week.

1322
01:05:20,400 --> 01:05:23,000
Speaker 2: Hardest Survivor Week one of it. Can never remember, I

1323
01:05:23,040 --> 01:05:25,480
Speaker 2: even going through iterations upon iterations. This is from my

1324
01:05:25,560 --> 01:05:28,400
Speaker 2: main one, my favorite one. I have a rule of

1325
01:05:28,400 --> 01:05:31,360
Speaker 2: thumb that I do not take road divisional favorites in

1326
01:05:31,440 --> 01:05:33,800
Speaker 2: Week one, right or wrong. That's just my rual thumb.

1327
01:05:33,880 --> 01:05:36,560
Speaker 2: We talked about this basically was the team of the podcast.

1328
01:05:36,720 --> 01:05:39,040
Speaker 2: So I wrote off the Colts right away, and I

1329
01:05:39,040 --> 01:05:42,320
Speaker 2: wrote off the Saints right away. You know, then you

1330
01:05:42,440 --> 01:05:45,600
Speaker 2: start going down and you say, okay, maybe the forty

1331
01:05:45,680 --> 01:05:48,960
Speaker 2: nine ers, but I have some spots I want to

1332
01:05:49,040 --> 01:05:51,760
Speaker 2: use them later in the year. It's also like low

1333
01:05:51,840 --> 01:05:57,400
Speaker 2: scoring game, high variants on the road, young quarterback Kittle, injury,

1334
01:05:58,200 --> 01:06:04,480
Speaker 2: offensive line problems like couple fumbles, Bears win higher, Aran Skain,

1335
01:06:04,520 --> 01:06:06,040
Speaker 2: the total. I like the under right. I like the

1336
01:06:06,120 --> 01:06:09,040
Speaker 2: under forty one. It's a couple of plays here that

1337
01:06:09,160 --> 01:06:12,920
Speaker 2: can swing it. The Ravens were very close for me,

1338
01:06:14,800 --> 01:06:18,040
Speaker 2: but they have a last place schedule. I can use

1339
01:06:18,080 --> 01:06:22,080
Speaker 2: them later in the year, the Chiefs or my next

1340
01:06:22,080 --> 01:06:25,320
Speaker 2: team up. When I was going unless of who I'm confident,

1341
01:06:26,480 --> 01:06:28,480
Speaker 2: really confident this week, I mean, like who else go

1342
01:06:28,520 --> 01:06:30,840
Speaker 2: down the list? Like some people are gonna like the Titans,

1343
01:06:31,160 --> 01:06:33,320
Speaker 2: which normally will be might pick most years. But I'm

1344
01:06:35,040 --> 01:06:36,480
Speaker 2: down on the Titans and high on the Giants, And

1345
01:06:36,480 --> 01:06:38,040
Speaker 2: I think the Giants have to try to win this game,

1346
01:06:38,560 --> 01:06:41,320
Speaker 2: and everything else is around a pick except the Chiefs.

1347
01:06:41,360 --> 01:06:45,480
Speaker 2: Now this Arizona injury situation. The Chiefs do have some

1348
01:06:45,600 --> 01:06:47,760
Speaker 2: really easy games, like three or four easy games, like

1349
01:06:47,800 --> 01:06:50,760
Speaker 2: they play like the Seahawks the jack Like they have

1350
01:06:50,800 --> 01:06:54,360
Speaker 2: some easy games there in theyre But I have teams.

1351
01:06:54,560 --> 01:06:56,919
Speaker 2: For example, I'm going to use the Giants one week

1352
01:06:56,960 --> 01:06:58,440
Speaker 2: when the Chiefs have a really easy game when the

1353
01:06:58,480 --> 01:07:00,680
Speaker 2: Giants host the Texans, that's probably and I'll bow out

1354
01:07:00,680 --> 01:07:03,280
Speaker 2: a survivor when the Giants when home Daniel Jones loses

1355
01:07:03,280 --> 01:07:05,840
Speaker 2: that game. But I was able to be okay with

1356
01:07:06,240 --> 01:07:08,960
Speaker 2: using the Chiefs now when I looked at their easy

1357
01:07:09,040 --> 01:07:11,320
Speaker 2: games and mapped out who I'm going to use when,

1358
01:07:11,760 --> 01:07:14,120
Speaker 2: because other than that, the Chiefs have overall to me

1359
01:07:14,360 --> 01:07:16,080
Speaker 2: for my numbers are the hardest scheduling NFL. I mean,

1360
01:07:16,080 --> 01:07:18,440
Speaker 2: look at the division and conference they playing. Yeah, I'm

1361
01:07:18,480 --> 01:07:21,480
Speaker 2: going I'm rolling with the Chiefs in Week one. It's scary,

1362
01:07:21,720 --> 01:07:23,920
Speaker 2: but so is every single option on the board.

1363
01:07:24,480 --> 01:07:26,800
Speaker 1: Yeah. I thought about the Chiefs too, actually, but I

1364
01:07:27,040 --> 01:07:29,760
Speaker 1: am going to go with the Ravens just because I

1365
01:07:29,840 --> 01:07:31,720
Speaker 1: just think the Cardinals are a better team and these

1366
01:07:31,720 --> 01:07:34,440
Speaker 1: lines aren't even that far apart. Both teams are on

1367
01:07:34,480 --> 01:07:36,320
Speaker 1: the road, and the Ravens are about like a half

1368
01:07:36,440 --> 01:07:39,040
Speaker 1: I mean a point and a half more at this point,

1369
01:07:39,080 --> 01:07:41,720
Speaker 1: so I'll go with the Ravens here, though I do

1370
01:07:41,760 --> 01:07:43,440
Speaker 1: agree the Ravens have some spots while you're in the

1371
01:07:43,480 --> 01:07:45,920
Speaker 1: year they play the Falcons. I believe it is at

1372
01:07:45,920 --> 01:07:48,640
Speaker 1: some point down the stretch, but you got to make

1373
01:07:48,680 --> 01:07:51,880
Speaker 1: it there. So I feel the best about Baltimore winning

1374
01:07:51,880 --> 01:07:52,320
Speaker 1: this game.

1375
01:07:52,680 --> 01:07:53,040
Speaker 2: All right.

1376
01:07:53,160 --> 01:07:56,800
Speaker 1: That is going to wrap it up for Week one

1377
01:07:56,960 --> 01:08:00,800
Speaker 1: Action Network Podcast. As a reminder here you can find

1378
01:08:01,120 --> 01:08:04,360
Speaker 1: all of the picks on the app at Sunday six Pack.

1379
01:08:04,720 --> 01:08:07,560
Speaker 1: Be sure to check out our NFL Best Bets episode

1380
01:08:08,040 --> 01:08:11,320
Speaker 1: all season long right here on the Action Network podcast

1381
01:08:11,440 --> 01:08:14,360
Speaker 1: channel on Friday mornings and Monday mornings will have the

1382
01:08:14,440 --> 01:08:18,400
Speaker 1: NFL Recap and Monday Night Football preview episodes. And of course,

1383
01:08:18,400 --> 01:08:21,599
Speaker 1: Stuck and I will be doing this every Thursday all

1384
01:08:21,640 --> 01:08:26,519
Speaker 1: season long, hopefully making you some money. So next time,

1385
01:08:26,560 --> 01:08:27,439
Speaker 1: let's get this money.

1386
01:08:27,680 --> 01:08:28,760
Speaker 2: Peace out.