1 00:00:00,840 --> 00:00:03,760 Speaker 1: Good luck with the most beautiful game ju us proud 2 00:00:04,400 --> 00:00:15,000 Speaker 1: read enough. They're running a game so smoothe so sweet, slidid. 3 00:00:14,560 --> 00:00:19,400 Speaker 2: Sixteen just glorious execution. Guys, all I'm looking for is 4 00:00:19,480 --> 00:00:23,320 Speaker 2: sixty percent effort four thousand percent of the time. How 5 00:00:23,520 --> 00:00:27,120 Speaker 2: shot with that? Shop with mind, buddy, and that's why 6 00:00:27,160 --> 00:00:29,440 Speaker 2: you see your beautiful tiers. 7 00:00:29,720 --> 00:00:31,000 Speaker 1: Look at his movements, the. 8 00:00:30,960 --> 00:00:32,280 Speaker 3: Most dangerous amount of the planet. 9 00:00:32,320 --> 00:00:33,040 Speaker 1: Nobody picks them. 10 00:00:35,680 --> 00:00:43,560 Speaker 2: Shut up, I'm trying. The love is left to of 11 00:00:43,680 --> 00:00:51,919 Speaker 2: the wide eyed, drilled fibus. How on earth pick that happens? 12 00:00:52,720 --> 00:00:57,920 Speaker 3: Hello everybody, and welcome back to Wonder Goal Champions League 13 00:00:58,040 --> 00:01:02,920 Speaker 3: Preview Match Day six. I'm Anthony Dubundo, hosting in the 14 00:01:02,920 --> 00:01:05,520 Speaker 3: host chair tonight, filling in for Michael Leeboff who is 15 00:01:05,560 --> 00:01:08,720 Speaker 3: not here, and joining me to break down most of 16 00:01:08,760 --> 00:01:12,720 Speaker 3: the sixteen matches in the final day of the Champions League. 17 00:01:12,800 --> 00:01:16,480 Speaker 3: Is BJ Cunningham, fresh off a weekend off where his 18 00:01:16,680 --> 00:01:19,440 Speaker 3: underdog failed to get home. For us, we came so 19 00:01:19,600 --> 00:01:23,680 Speaker 3: close yet again, devastating heartbreak. No underdogs this week for 20 00:01:23,720 --> 00:01:26,560 Speaker 3: the Champions League. But we do have some fun, you know, 21 00:01:26,600 --> 00:01:30,080 Speaker 3: tiebreaker scenarios to get into. Who's going to advance, who's 22 00:01:30,120 --> 00:01:31,840 Speaker 3: not going to advance. Some of the groups are decided, 23 00:01:31,880 --> 00:01:34,479 Speaker 3: some of them, you know, only one spot is clinched. 24 00:01:34,560 --> 00:01:37,080 Speaker 3: So it should be a really fun couple of matches 25 00:01:37,080 --> 00:01:39,200 Speaker 3: we have coming up here. But before we get into 26 00:01:39,240 --> 00:01:41,399 Speaker 3: the matches, remember that wonder goal is presented by bet 27 00:01:41,400 --> 00:01:44,400 Speaker 3: three sixty five. Bet three to sixty five doesn't do ordinary. 28 00:01:44,400 --> 00:01:47,080 Speaker 3: It believes that every sport should be epic. Every tournament, 29 00:01:47,120 --> 00:01:49,960 Speaker 3: every game, every point, every play, from the moments that 30 00:01:50,000 --> 00:01:52,240 Speaker 3: are legendary to the ones that fly under the radar. 31 00:01:52,560 --> 00:01:54,360 Speaker 3: See for yourself when you sign up today with the 32 00:01:54,360 --> 00:01:56,760 Speaker 3: code action and you get three hundred and sixty five 33 00:01:56,800 --> 00:01:59,120 Speaker 3: dollars in bonus bets, when you bet just one dollar, 34 00:01:59,360 --> 00:02:02,200 Speaker 3: whatever the sport, whatever the moment, it's never ordinary at 35 00:02:02,200 --> 00:02:04,640 Speaker 3: bet three sixty five. Must be twenty one or older. 36 00:02:04,720 --> 00:02:08,240 Speaker 3: Must be president in Colorado, Iowa, Kentucky, New Jersey, Ohio, 37 00:02:08,720 --> 00:02:11,040 Speaker 3: or Virginia. And if you or someone you know has 38 00:02:11,080 --> 00:02:13,400 Speaker 3: a gambling problem and wants help, call one eight hundred 39 00:02:13,400 --> 00:02:17,280 Speaker 3: gambler in Colorado, Kentucky, New Jersey, Ohio, and Virginia, or 40 00:02:17,280 --> 00:02:20,680 Speaker 3: win one hundred bets off in Iowa. Terms and conditions apply. 41 00:02:21,680 --> 00:02:24,480 Speaker 3: There's really only one place to start on Tuesday. It's 42 00:02:24,520 --> 00:02:27,120 Speaker 3: probably been the most exciting group from top to bottom 43 00:02:27,160 --> 00:02:32,080 Speaker 3: in this Champions League group outside of the Group of Death. Copenhagen, Galatasarai, 44 00:02:32,120 --> 00:02:34,840 Speaker 3: Man United in Bayron. Let's kind of set the scene here. 45 00:02:34,840 --> 00:02:37,560 Speaker 3: So Byron have already clinched, They've won the group pretty comfortably. 46 00:02:37,960 --> 00:02:40,160 Speaker 3: Doesn't necessarily mean that they're not going to play a 47 00:02:40,200 --> 00:02:41,960 Speaker 3: decent team, and we'll get into that in a second. 48 00:02:42,360 --> 00:02:45,520 Speaker 3: Second place scenarios are a little bit tricky. Copenhagen will 49 00:02:45,520 --> 00:02:49,880 Speaker 3: host Galatasarai. Whoever wins that match will advance. Copenhagen advances 50 00:02:49,919 --> 00:02:53,640 Speaker 3: with a win Galatasarai same They are currently tied on points, 51 00:02:54,120 --> 00:02:58,440 Speaker 3: but if they were to draw, Copenhagen would advance. Unless 52 00:02:58,639 --> 00:03:01,919 Speaker 3: United pulls off an up set win against Byron, then 53 00:03:02,080 --> 00:03:04,960 Speaker 3: United would advance. So the current odds to advance Copenhagen 54 00:03:04,960 --> 00:03:08,320 Speaker 3: minus one twenty five Galatasaride plus one thirty seven Man 55 00:03:08,400 --> 00:03:10,760 Speaker 3: United eight to one. So if you wanted to get 56 00:03:10,800 --> 00:03:13,320 Speaker 3: a little crazy, United to pull a rabbit out of 57 00:03:13,360 --> 00:03:16,280 Speaker 3: their hat could happen here. It's going to require them 58 00:03:16,280 --> 00:03:18,080 Speaker 3: beating a team that has not lost in the group 59 00:03:18,080 --> 00:03:21,440 Speaker 3: stage in many years. BJ Let's start with Copenhagen Galatastarriide 60 00:03:21,440 --> 00:03:23,839 Speaker 3: because that's the more exciting match. I know we both 61 00:03:23,840 --> 00:03:25,960 Speaker 3: have bets on the next one, but where do you 62 00:03:25,960 --> 00:03:28,480 Speaker 3: see this match going? And kind of what do we 63 00:03:28,560 --> 00:03:31,440 Speaker 3: make of Galatasa Ride now that we've gotten five matches 64 00:03:31,480 --> 00:03:33,720 Speaker 3: to see them in the Champions League and it's pretty 65 00:03:33,720 --> 00:03:37,200 Speaker 3: clear they're going for it regardless of the scenario here. 66 00:03:37,720 --> 00:03:40,160 Speaker 1: Maybe you can remind me, but I don't think I've 67 00:03:40,240 --> 00:03:43,760 Speaker 1: ever I can remember a team that I've watched that 68 00:03:43,960 --> 00:03:47,960 Speaker 1: just absolutely thrives in chaos more than galatas Ride. They 69 00:03:48,040 --> 00:03:52,320 Speaker 1: want chaotic matches, they want transitional back and forth, they 70 00:03:52,360 --> 00:03:56,760 Speaker 1: want matches to be high scoring. And the scenario that 71 00:03:56,760 --> 00:03:58,920 Speaker 1: you laid out, obviously Copenhagen with the draw would move 72 00:03:58,920 --> 00:04:00,760 Speaker 1: on to the round of sixteen out obviously of a 73 00:04:01,080 --> 00:04:04,200 Speaker 1: Manchester United win. So my expectation is that Copenhagen will 74 00:04:04,200 --> 00:04:06,800 Speaker 1: probably do what they did in the first leg in Turkey, 75 00:04:06,800 --> 00:04:08,960 Speaker 1: which is they sat pretty deep and then they just 76 00:04:08,920 --> 00:04:11,240 Speaker 1: looked to counter galatast Right, But we are in a 77 00:04:11,240 --> 00:04:13,960 Speaker 1: scenario where Galatastra has to go for this. They have 78 00:04:14,040 --> 00:04:15,720 Speaker 1: to win draws not good enough to get through the 79 00:04:15,800 --> 00:04:18,760 Speaker 1: round sixteen, So they're going to counterpress quite a bit. 80 00:04:19,000 --> 00:04:20,920 Speaker 1: They're going to play very aggressively, which is going to 81 00:04:21,040 --> 00:04:23,560 Speaker 1: leave a lot of space in behind for Copenhagen if 82 00:04:23,560 --> 00:04:27,160 Speaker 1: they choose to get those transitional moments going forward. I 83 00:04:27,240 --> 00:04:29,160 Speaker 1: love the over three goals here at plus one eight. 84 00:04:29,360 --> 00:04:32,279 Speaker 1: I think it's far too low. Every single match that 85 00:04:32,320 --> 00:04:35,680 Speaker 1: Galatastra has played in this group stage has had at 86 00:04:35,720 --> 00:04:38,760 Speaker 1: least three goals scored. Only the Copenhagen match had less 87 00:04:38,800 --> 00:04:41,520 Speaker 1: than three x G in it, and even that match 88 00:04:41,640 --> 00:04:43,280 Speaker 1: was very very back and forth, and if you look 89 00:04:43,360 --> 00:04:45,680 Speaker 1: through some of the other underlying data in that match, 90 00:04:46,080 --> 00:04:48,760 Speaker 1: Galatastri just wasn't very clinical in the final third. Yes, 91 00:04:48,800 --> 00:04:50,560 Speaker 1: they only had one point one expected goals, but they 92 00:04:50,560 --> 00:04:52,760 Speaker 1: had expected threat of one point seventy four and eighteen 93 00:04:52,800 --> 00:04:54,800 Speaker 1: box injuries. So if they're going to be on the 94 00:04:54,800 --> 00:04:56,400 Speaker 1: front foot and they're going to be putting a lot 95 00:04:56,400 --> 00:04:58,920 Speaker 1: of pressure on Copenhagen, I have no doubt, even though 96 00:04:58,920 --> 00:05:00,800 Speaker 1: this match is in Denmark, they are going to get 97 00:05:00,839 --> 00:05:04,040 Speaker 1: a ton of those chances. But I projected this line 98 00:05:04,080 --> 00:05:06,080 Speaker 1: pretty close to right around the market hasn't But I 99 00:05:06,120 --> 00:05:08,240 Speaker 1: do have three point four goals projected for it. So 100 00:05:09,040 --> 00:05:11,080 Speaker 1: I love over three goals and plus one of eight. 101 00:05:11,560 --> 00:05:14,000 Speaker 1: I just don't really see a scenario where this match 102 00:05:14,160 --> 00:05:16,440 Speaker 1: doesn't divulge into complete chaos. 103 00:05:17,400 --> 00:05:19,200 Speaker 3: I mean, look, if you watched the fifth match they 104 00:05:19,200 --> 00:05:22,320 Speaker 3: played against United two weeks ago, it was actually remarkable 105 00:05:22,320 --> 00:05:23,880 Speaker 3: because I'm sitting there, you know, we both had the 106 00:05:23,880 --> 00:05:26,240 Speaker 3: plus a half. Most people had drawn, no bet. All 107 00:05:26,320 --> 00:05:28,440 Speaker 3: they needed was a draw to keep themselves in like 108 00:05:28,480 --> 00:05:31,159 Speaker 3: a really good position to go into the final match 109 00:05:31,200 --> 00:05:33,280 Speaker 3: day where it's like you control your own destiny. All 110 00:05:33,279 --> 00:05:35,000 Speaker 3: you have to do is draw. They get to three 111 00:05:35,040 --> 00:05:38,440 Speaker 3: to three, and I'm like, any rational team would dial 112 00:05:38,480 --> 00:05:40,040 Speaker 3: it back a little bit here and be like, well, 113 00:05:40,360 --> 00:05:42,480 Speaker 3: you know, let's not be so open. Let's you know, 114 00:05:42,680 --> 00:05:44,600 Speaker 3: maybe give some possession to United, look to hit them 115 00:05:44,600 --> 00:05:46,599 Speaker 3: on the brake. But they were not doing that. I 116 00:05:46,600 --> 00:05:49,800 Speaker 3: mean United had like four or five great opportunities that 117 00:05:49,839 --> 00:05:52,880 Speaker 3: they failed to convert and failed to create. But it 118 00:05:52,920 --> 00:05:55,960 Speaker 3: was open season for this defense. And their defense is 119 00:05:56,000 --> 00:05:57,680 Speaker 3: not very good, and I think it's very obvious. But 120 00:05:57,720 --> 00:06:01,200 Speaker 3: the market has also upgraded them, and very quietly happened 121 00:06:01,480 --> 00:06:03,800 Speaker 3: during those Buyern matches. They lost both Buyron matches but 122 00:06:03,800 --> 00:06:06,719 Speaker 3: they played well enough in both that not only did 123 00:06:06,760 --> 00:06:08,600 Speaker 3: we not cash our big tickets we were hoping to cash, 124 00:06:08,640 --> 00:06:12,080 Speaker 3: but the market also simultaneously upgraded them while taking our money. 125 00:06:12,320 --> 00:06:14,800 Speaker 3: So it was kind of mean because the last two 126 00:06:14,839 --> 00:06:17,240 Speaker 3: matches there really hasn't been value on Galatas right to 127 00:06:17,240 --> 00:06:19,239 Speaker 3: close closing, you know, I pick them against United closing 128 00:06:19,240 --> 00:06:21,839 Speaker 3: a favorite in that match, now a slight favorite here, 129 00:06:22,839 --> 00:06:24,839 Speaker 3: I'm just gonna ride with the ticket. I bet Galata's 130 00:06:24,920 --> 00:06:27,599 Speaker 3: Rye all five matches in this group stage, to varying 131 00:06:27,640 --> 00:06:30,680 Speaker 3: degrees of success. I think now the market is caught up. Now, 132 00:06:30,680 --> 00:06:32,360 Speaker 3: it's pretty simple, right we bet them at the beginning 133 00:06:32,400 --> 00:06:35,240 Speaker 3: of the group stage. To advance, they just have to win. 134 00:06:35,360 --> 00:06:37,840 Speaker 3: So we have we're ahead right now in our position. Yep, 135 00:06:38,920 --> 00:06:41,760 Speaker 3: the waves they could come crumbling down. But again, like 136 00:06:41,800 --> 00:06:45,120 Speaker 3: you mentioned, like the first forty minutes of that match 137 00:06:46,080 --> 00:06:48,240 Speaker 3: in the first leg back in Turkey, way back when 138 00:06:48,839 --> 00:06:52,240 Speaker 3: in September, they hit the woodwork, the Cardi missed a 139 00:06:52,240 --> 00:06:55,080 Speaker 3: one on one. A Cardi has been really good at 140 00:06:55,080 --> 00:06:57,279 Speaker 3: getting chances and really bad at finishing them in this 141 00:06:57,360 --> 00:06:59,120 Speaker 3: Champions League, and that's been a big problem for them, 142 00:06:59,160 --> 00:07:01,880 Speaker 3: is that they just haven't had great finishing variants from 143 00:07:01,920 --> 00:07:04,240 Speaker 3: their guy who takes most of their shots, and as 144 00:07:04,279 --> 00:07:10,720 Speaker 3: a result, they have not quite you know, gotten the 145 00:07:11,120 --> 00:07:13,440 Speaker 3: upsets we thought they could have pulled off. He was 146 00:07:13,480 --> 00:07:15,320 Speaker 3: not good against United. He got the one goal where 147 00:07:15,320 --> 00:07:17,760 Speaker 3: he was off by like a kneecap, but he did 148 00:07:17,760 --> 00:07:21,160 Speaker 3: get you know, seven shots against Bayron, three shots against Byron, 149 00:07:21,200 --> 00:07:25,040 Speaker 3: three against United, four against Copenhagen. He's put up more 150 00:07:25,080 --> 00:07:27,640 Speaker 3: than four expected goals and only has two, one of 151 00:07:27,640 --> 00:07:31,520 Speaker 3: which was a pen. So there are some questions about like, 152 00:07:33,200 --> 00:07:34,680 Speaker 3: is he just like gonna have a big game here, 153 00:07:34,800 --> 00:07:37,600 Speaker 3: finally cash ticket for US. I hope so too. 154 00:07:37,720 --> 00:07:40,600 Speaker 1: And I'll tell you this the bet regret of the 155 00:07:40,680 --> 00:07:43,320 Speaker 1: century for me is I said it on this podcast 156 00:07:43,680 --> 00:07:46,120 Speaker 1: before the United match. I said Copenhagen sixteen to one 157 00:07:46,160 --> 00:07:48,800 Speaker 1: to advance, and I just didn't do it. I just 158 00:07:48,800 --> 00:07:50,840 Speaker 1: didn't bet it. And now I'm sitting here and now 159 00:07:50,840 --> 00:07:55,800 Speaker 1: they're the favorites to advance. So but that's okay because 160 00:07:56,160 --> 00:07:58,360 Speaker 1: I think we're in a good position here at galtass. 161 00:07:58,000 --> 00:07:59,880 Speaker 3: Right, Yeah, that's what we can get a win if 162 00:08:00,880 --> 00:08:02,680 Speaker 3: there is a draw in this match. The door is 163 00:08:02,720 --> 00:08:07,080 Speaker 3: open for Man United. Yes, who lost over the weekend. 164 00:08:07,080 --> 00:08:09,160 Speaker 3: I was disappointed that BJ didn't bet my cherries with me. 165 00:08:10,240 --> 00:08:14,560 Speaker 3: They lost three. No, they were so back on Wednesday 166 00:08:14,600 --> 00:08:17,680 Speaker 3: when they beat Chelsea. Performance of the season, four expected goals, 167 00:08:17,760 --> 00:08:20,280 Speaker 3: dominate Chelsea at home, then they go on the road, 168 00:08:20,520 --> 00:08:23,080 Speaker 3: they're home again. Look pretty flat. It was a pretty 169 00:08:23,120 --> 00:08:26,520 Speaker 3: even game relatively on the chances. But born with up 170 00:08:26,560 --> 00:08:31,160 Speaker 3: one now inside five minutes. Now they're favored or slight underdog. 171 00:08:31,240 --> 00:08:39,079 Speaker 3: Basically pick them against Byron Munich. Now this match is 172 00:08:39,080 --> 00:08:41,240 Speaker 3: being played on Tuesday, which means that six days before 173 00:08:41,280 --> 00:08:44,120 Speaker 3: the playing of this match, Chelsea will have went to 174 00:08:44,240 --> 00:08:48,199 Speaker 3: Man United and been a slightly bigger favorite then Byron 175 00:08:48,200 --> 00:08:51,040 Speaker 3: would be on Tuesday when they play this match, assuming 176 00:08:51,080 --> 00:08:54,280 Speaker 3: the line doesn't move crazily, which I don't expect. Now 177 00:08:54,320 --> 00:08:57,560 Speaker 3: you might say, well, there's motivation. Byron has already clinched 178 00:08:57,559 --> 00:08:59,880 Speaker 3: the group. Let's go back and look at the his 179 00:09:00,280 --> 00:09:01,760 Speaker 3: of this, because I think we're all aware we've done 180 00:09:01,760 --> 00:09:03,760 Speaker 3: the show for a few years. Byron has already clinched 181 00:09:03,800 --> 00:09:05,719 Speaker 3: the group prior to the final day multiple times in 182 00:09:05,760 --> 00:09:09,280 Speaker 3: the last couple of years. Twenty last season, they were 183 00:09:09,320 --> 00:09:12,960 Speaker 3: playing inter Milan at home on the final day Inter 184 00:09:13,080 --> 00:09:18,080 Speaker 3: needed to pull off a result they'd already clinched. Byron 185 00:09:18,080 --> 00:09:21,640 Speaker 3: played everybody Chupomoting, started Striker, Kimmick and Sabatzer in the midfield, 186 00:09:21,679 --> 00:09:25,240 Speaker 3: Coman and Money as the wingers. They went for it. 187 00:09:25,280 --> 00:09:28,679 Speaker 3: They want to know two years ago Byron had already 188 00:09:28,679 --> 00:09:30,719 Speaker 3: clinched the group. They played Barsa on the final day. 189 00:09:30,960 --> 00:09:36,360 Speaker 3: They started Lewandowski, Mueller, Sanne, Koman, Musiala and Toliso. They 190 00:09:36,360 --> 00:09:38,480 Speaker 3: are not in the German Cup, which means they didn't 191 00:09:38,480 --> 00:09:39,960 Speaker 3: play last mid week. I think they would be more 192 00:09:39,960 --> 00:09:42,520 Speaker 3: inclined to rest people if they had played last match 193 00:09:42,520 --> 00:09:45,160 Speaker 3: week during the week where it's like, okay, now we 194 00:09:45,200 --> 00:09:47,120 Speaker 3: have like three matches, four matches in ten days, it's 195 00:09:47,160 --> 00:09:49,559 Speaker 3: a lot. But they had the week off. They lost 196 00:09:49,600 --> 00:09:53,160 Speaker 3: to Frankfurt in a terrible showing over the weekend, which 197 00:09:53,440 --> 00:09:55,760 Speaker 3: should piss them off and I'm expecting a reaction now 198 00:09:55,800 --> 00:09:58,040 Speaker 3: and United might be at the other end of it. 199 00:09:59,120 --> 00:10:01,840 Speaker 3: Last time Byron lost a match was to sire bruckin 200 00:10:02,800 --> 00:10:04,800 Speaker 3: They were up to no on Dortmund within ten minutes 201 00:10:05,120 --> 00:10:09,840 Speaker 3: the following Saturday. So this Byron team is considerably better 202 00:10:09,880 --> 00:10:13,719 Speaker 3: than Chelsea, considerably better than by any metric you look 203 00:10:13,760 --> 00:10:16,840 Speaker 3: at in the world and I've been anti Byron and 204 00:10:16,880 --> 00:10:18,959 Speaker 3: they were kind of flat against Copenhagen. I think that's 205 00:10:19,000 --> 00:10:20,880 Speaker 3: real and they really kind of just played that match 206 00:10:20,960 --> 00:10:22,480 Speaker 3: on cruise control. But that was a team that was 207 00:10:22,480 --> 00:10:24,840 Speaker 3: a low block who just like kind of like defended 208 00:10:24,920 --> 00:10:26,640 Speaker 3: for their lives for ninety minutes. It never really offered 209 00:10:26,640 --> 00:10:29,080 Speaker 3: too much of a threat. United can't do that. They're 210 00:10:29,120 --> 00:10:31,480 Speaker 3: not capable defensively, and they don't they need to win, 211 00:10:31,600 --> 00:10:33,360 Speaker 3: so a draw does them no good. There's gonna be 212 00:10:33,400 --> 00:10:35,760 Speaker 3: a ton of space on the counter here for Byron 213 00:10:35,880 --> 00:10:38,720 Speaker 3: where they're lethal. They did lose Gnnabri to injury, but 214 00:10:38,720 --> 00:10:40,040 Speaker 3: like I said, it's it's still gonna be I think 215 00:10:40,040 --> 00:10:42,960 Speaker 3: coman and and they have plenty of wing depth to 216 00:10:42,960 --> 00:10:47,320 Speaker 3: make it work. So I'm gonna be on Byron. Harry 217 00:10:47,400 --> 00:10:50,240 Speaker 3: Kane is famous for never sitting like this is for 218 00:10:50,320 --> 00:10:53,040 Speaker 3: me an overreaction to the motivation, and I'm gonna take 219 00:10:53,840 --> 00:10:56,320 Speaker 3: Byron to win or I'll take them drawn a bet 220 00:10:56,760 --> 00:10:57,600 Speaker 3: minus one twenty. 221 00:10:57,880 --> 00:10:59,600 Speaker 1: I mean, has there been a better fade team than 222 00:10:59,679 --> 00:11:03,319 Speaker 1: United this season? Like it's been It's been yet Chelsea, 223 00:11:03,360 --> 00:11:06,880 Speaker 1: It's been quite fun. Uh you know the previous match, Yeah, 224 00:11:07,280 --> 00:11:11,079 Speaker 1: the previous match in Germany, you know did end four 225 00:11:11,040 --> 00:11:13,800 Speaker 1: to three, but and you know, if you'll get expected 226 00:11:13,840 --> 00:11:16,520 Speaker 1: goals and Byron did have a penalty from a non 227 00:11:16,559 --> 00:11:21,360 Speaker 1: penalty ext standpoint. United actually won the match, but a 228 00:11:21,400 --> 00:11:24,920 Speaker 1: lot of those chances came when they were already behind 229 00:11:24,960 --> 00:11:26,680 Speaker 1: three to one, which I think is important in this 230 00:11:26,760 --> 00:11:30,920 Speaker 1: scenario because Byron was consistently creating chances over and over 231 00:11:30,960 --> 00:11:32,800 Speaker 1: and over again when they were leading in this match, 232 00:11:32,800 --> 00:11:35,040 Speaker 1: because they were up to nil inside and inside the 233 00:11:35,080 --> 00:11:38,000 Speaker 1: first thirty minutes. So we saw what United was like 234 00:11:38,200 --> 00:11:40,640 Speaker 1: when the pressure was on and they needed to come back, 235 00:11:40,679 --> 00:11:42,800 Speaker 1: and that was with Casmbirou and a lot of other 236 00:11:42,880 --> 00:11:46,000 Speaker 1: players who are now injured, and they really couldn't do 237 00:11:46,200 --> 00:11:50,520 Speaker 1: much with it. And here's really the problem. If you've 238 00:11:50,559 --> 00:11:54,520 Speaker 1: watched Man United at all this season, really they can't 239 00:11:54,520 --> 00:11:57,040 Speaker 1: build out of the back. They've like ten Hog is 240 00:11:57,080 --> 00:12:01,600 Speaker 1: trying these complicated fluid build ups system similar to kind 241 00:12:01,640 --> 00:12:03,199 Speaker 1: of what Tottenham is trying to do, or you know, 242 00:12:03,240 --> 00:12:06,600 Speaker 1: it's very fluid. Guys are interchanging, moving around, but they 243 00:12:06,600 --> 00:12:09,079 Speaker 1: don't have the personnel to do it, and the players 244 00:12:09,080 --> 00:12:11,840 Speaker 1: get confused and suddenly it's like, Okay, well, we couldn't 245 00:12:11,840 --> 00:12:13,400 Speaker 1: really move the ball forward, so let's just send the 246 00:12:13,480 --> 00:12:15,520 Speaker 1: ball along up to the forwards and let's just hope 247 00:12:15,559 --> 00:12:17,400 Speaker 1: for the best. And that's probably their best method of 248 00:12:17,440 --> 00:12:20,920 Speaker 1: attack here. But if they have to be very aggressive 249 00:12:21,080 --> 00:12:23,720 Speaker 1: and they have to press Byron relentlessly and try to 250 00:12:23,720 --> 00:12:25,800 Speaker 1: go win the ball off of them because they obviously 251 00:12:25,880 --> 00:12:28,199 Speaker 1: need a win here, that is such a dangerous game 252 00:12:28,240 --> 00:12:29,760 Speaker 1: to play with one of the best teams in the world. 253 00:12:29,840 --> 00:12:33,000 Speaker 1: I mean, in the first in the first meeting between 254 00:12:33,040 --> 00:12:36,200 Speaker 1: these two, Byron had a build up completion percentage of 255 00:12:36,240 --> 00:12:38,720 Speaker 1: ninety one percent and it had a pass the defensive 256 00:12:38,800 --> 00:12:41,240 Speaker 1: action of fifteen point seven. They have their best pressing 257 00:12:41,280 --> 00:12:44,240 Speaker 1: performance of the season against Chelsea. Byron is a really 258 00:12:44,960 --> 00:12:47,640 Speaker 1: really good build up team. It is very difficult to 259 00:12:47,679 --> 00:12:50,599 Speaker 1: get the ball off of them. So I find it 260 00:12:50,720 --> 00:12:54,360 Speaker 1: this being a terrible situation for Manchester United, given they 261 00:12:54,400 --> 00:12:57,600 Speaker 1: have to be aggressive and put the pressure on Byron Munich, 262 00:12:58,000 --> 00:12:59,959 Speaker 1: Like you said, there's going to be so much space 263 00:13:00,360 --> 00:13:02,719 Speaker 1: on the counter once Byron gets past that first line 264 00:13:02,760 --> 00:13:04,920 Speaker 1: of the pressure. So I agree with you. I actually 265 00:13:04,920 --> 00:13:08,400 Speaker 1: have Byron. You know, projection systems don't take into account motivation. 266 00:13:08,760 --> 00:13:10,840 Speaker 1: So if you're looking at my projections or anything like that, 267 00:13:11,280 --> 00:13:13,839 Speaker 1: some might see mata whack. You know, obviously the market 268 00:13:13,840 --> 00:13:16,719 Speaker 1: adjust for motivation. This is a motivation adjustment because I 269 00:13:16,760 --> 00:13:19,400 Speaker 1: have Byron as a plus one h five road favorite, 270 00:13:19,440 --> 00:13:21,440 Speaker 1: and I think if this match actually mattered, they would 271 00:13:21,440 --> 00:13:23,840 Speaker 1: probably be around minus one ten minus one twenty given 272 00:13:23,880 --> 00:13:27,199 Speaker 1: the state where Manchester United is right now. So I agree, 273 00:13:27,480 --> 00:13:29,760 Speaker 1: I like Byron. John Obett best pricing can finer now 274 00:13:29,840 --> 00:13:31,920 Speaker 1: is minus one twelve and that is at bet through 275 00:13:31,920 --> 00:13:32,440 Speaker 1: sixty five. 276 00:13:32,720 --> 00:13:37,040 Speaker 3: Here's the thing. United defensively is still a bottom five 277 00:13:37,040 --> 00:13:39,160 Speaker 3: team in the Premier League. Ye in the half the season. 278 00:13:39,640 --> 00:13:41,760 Speaker 3: They haven't played Liverpool yet, so it could be worse. 279 00:13:43,080 --> 00:13:45,320 Speaker 3: Byron is minus went twenty to score in the first half. 280 00:13:45,840 --> 00:13:47,800 Speaker 3: I think I will bet that and look back and 281 00:13:47,880 --> 00:13:49,559 Speaker 3: laugh and if if it doesn't win, it doesn't win. 282 00:13:49,640 --> 00:13:52,520 Speaker 3: But like this is one of the you could argue, 283 00:13:52,520 --> 00:13:54,240 Speaker 3: like the best attacking team in the world when they're 284 00:13:54,240 --> 00:13:56,320 Speaker 3: when they're at their best minus one twenty to score 285 00:13:56,360 --> 00:13:59,880 Speaker 3: against like a very middling defense who is concealing. 286 00:13:59,360 --> 00:14:02,280 Speaker 1: Off a five one. I mean, they're the headlines I 287 00:14:02,320 --> 00:14:04,840 Speaker 1: was reading coming out after that one were crazy, like 288 00:14:05,360 --> 00:14:07,640 Speaker 1: his two child in trouble for his job, like and 289 00:14:07,679 --> 00:14:09,679 Speaker 1: all these different things, like they need to have some 290 00:14:09,720 --> 00:14:12,520 Speaker 1: type of response here because they just dropped points and 291 00:14:12,559 --> 00:14:15,000 Speaker 1: now Leverkusen just took another point lead on them in 292 00:14:15,040 --> 00:14:17,880 Speaker 1: the Bundesliga. So they need a response here because this 293 00:14:17,920 --> 00:14:21,640 Speaker 1: match means anything or not. And listen, as we've seen 294 00:14:21,760 --> 00:14:24,320 Speaker 1: through I mean you mentioned the last two seasons, actually 295 00:14:24,360 --> 00:14:26,560 Speaker 1: been four straight seasons where they have already clinched the 296 00:14:26,600 --> 00:14:28,640 Speaker 1: group and they are playing a match that means nothing. 297 00:14:28,640 --> 00:14:34,080 Speaker 1: They've won all four of those matches years ago. Yeah, two, 298 00:14:34,120 --> 00:14:37,200 Speaker 1: three years ago is gets Locomotive Moscow, the one that 299 00:14:37,400 --> 00:14:40,080 Speaker 1: literally meant absolutely nothing against a nobody and they still 300 00:14:40,480 --> 00:14:44,360 Speaker 1: pounded them. So and beating and listen, beating United at 301 00:14:44,360 --> 00:14:46,640 Speaker 1: Old Trafford is something that a lot of teams look 302 00:14:46,680 --> 00:14:51,080 Speaker 1: forward to doing. So yeah, Byron, every which way, I 303 00:14:51,120 --> 00:14:52,320 Speaker 1: might even play smallts. 304 00:14:52,880 --> 00:14:56,160 Speaker 3: Okay, that settles Group A. Let's root on our galatass, 305 00:14:56,200 --> 00:14:58,800 Speaker 3: ride boys to the window. Let's move on to Group C, 306 00:14:59,080 --> 00:15:03,640 Speaker 3: where things are much more simple intern real Sociadodd will 307 00:15:03,640 --> 00:15:07,160 Speaker 3: play for the group title. Both have already clinched spots 308 00:15:07,160 --> 00:15:09,440 Speaker 3: in the amount of sixteen The winner of the match will 309 00:15:09,440 --> 00:15:12,640 Speaker 3: win the group. If they draw, sociadd will win the group. 310 00:15:13,760 --> 00:15:17,440 Speaker 3: Benfica will play Salisburg for third. Benfica needs to win 311 00:15:19,040 --> 00:15:22,000 Speaker 3: by multiple goals if they want to get third. They 312 00:15:22,000 --> 00:15:23,400 Speaker 3: are a pick them to do. So let's start with 313 00:15:23,440 --> 00:15:27,120 Speaker 3: Intern sociodod where this is most eyes. I think we'll 314 00:15:27,120 --> 00:15:31,120 Speaker 3: be on. Inter is a minus one sixty home favorite. 315 00:15:31,960 --> 00:15:35,760 Speaker 3: They've taken some money here, they've moved up. These two 316 00:15:35,760 --> 00:15:38,800 Speaker 3: teams have been really tricky because they've both taken turns 317 00:15:38,920 --> 00:15:41,440 Speaker 3: kind of like rotating players and not really caring at 318 00:15:41,480 --> 00:15:44,320 Speaker 3: times in this Champions League, like Inter played a very 319 00:15:44,400 --> 00:15:48,280 Speaker 3: rotated team against Salzburg and then played a very rotated 320 00:15:48,320 --> 00:15:52,760 Speaker 3: team against Benfica. Are they going to be all in 321 00:15:52,800 --> 00:15:55,680 Speaker 3: here to win this group at home? I mean I 322 00:15:55,720 --> 00:15:57,360 Speaker 3: think they should be. If you look at like who's 323 00:15:57,360 --> 00:15:58,720 Speaker 3: going to be the group winners and who's going to 324 00:15:58,760 --> 00:16:01,040 Speaker 3: be the second place teams, there's a huge difference in 325 00:16:01,080 --> 00:16:03,400 Speaker 3: your draw probably for the next round if you win 326 00:16:03,440 --> 00:16:06,800 Speaker 3: your group. So, BJ, where do you see this match 327 00:16:06,840 --> 00:16:08,560 Speaker 3: going down and what are your thoughts? 328 00:16:09,160 --> 00:16:11,040 Speaker 1: Well, if I had to bet anything, I'd probably bet 329 00:16:11,080 --> 00:16:14,480 Speaker 1: sociy Dad plus one, but I don't know if I 330 00:16:14,480 --> 00:16:16,760 Speaker 1: can get there yet. So the previous match on the 331 00:16:16,760 --> 00:16:20,240 Speaker 1: opening day was kind of interesting because Socidad scored right 332 00:16:20,280 --> 00:16:23,640 Speaker 1: away and just continued to dominate the match, like over 333 00:16:23,680 --> 00:16:25,680 Speaker 1: and over, and they were the ones creating all the chances. 334 00:16:25,680 --> 00:16:29,840 Speaker 1: So after Soci Dad scored, Inter took one shot up 335 00:16:29,920 --> 00:16:33,440 Speaker 1: until the eighty sixth minute, Like that's how impressive the 336 00:16:33,480 --> 00:16:36,640 Speaker 1: performance was from Socidad. And you know, if you watch 337 00:16:36,680 --> 00:16:38,720 Speaker 1: that match towards the end, they you know, they were 338 00:16:38,720 --> 00:16:41,800 Speaker 1: getting gassed. Inter was just you know, swinging and crossed 339 00:16:41,800 --> 00:16:44,560 Speaker 1: after crossing across, and eventually Martinez put one in the 340 00:16:44,600 --> 00:16:47,840 Speaker 1: back of the net. So this is a really really 341 00:16:47,880 --> 00:16:50,680 Speaker 1: good defense from Soci Dad and one that is capable 342 00:16:51,200 --> 00:16:54,280 Speaker 1: of holding down Inter. And the thing about Inter, We've 343 00:16:54,280 --> 00:16:57,960 Speaker 1: mentioned this so many times. They're such a better team 344 00:16:58,400 --> 00:17:01,040 Speaker 1: when they're not not the ones that need to control 345 00:17:01,080 --> 00:17:03,320 Speaker 1: possession and break down low blocks and everything like that. 346 00:17:03,400 --> 00:17:05,960 Speaker 1: They do it very effectively in Syria against bottom half 347 00:17:06,000 --> 00:17:08,560 Speaker 1: of the table sides, but when they're playing against good competition, 348 00:17:08,880 --> 00:17:10,920 Speaker 1: they want to hand the ball to them, they want 349 00:17:10,920 --> 00:17:12,119 Speaker 1: to sit in there five three to two and they 350 00:17:12,119 --> 00:17:14,879 Speaker 1: want to counter. That's where they're most effective. This is 351 00:17:14,880 --> 00:17:17,680 Speaker 1: a situation where Socidad, only needing a draw, is going 352 00:17:17,720 --> 00:17:19,000 Speaker 1: to sit in a little block. They're one of the 353 00:17:19,000 --> 00:17:22,159 Speaker 1: best defensive teams in Spain and I think there's a 354 00:17:22,240 --> 00:17:24,960 Speaker 1: great chance that they can keep them out for full 355 00:17:25,040 --> 00:17:28,800 Speaker 1: ninety minutes. Now it's a very again. Once Here's the 356 00:17:29,720 --> 00:17:32,400 Speaker 1: the funny part is okay, once Inter scores that goal, 357 00:17:32,440 --> 00:17:35,240 Speaker 1: you know how how badly do Socia didn't want to 358 00:17:35,280 --> 00:17:38,199 Speaker 1: go for it or they just kind of potentially packing in. 359 00:17:38,200 --> 00:17:39,439 Speaker 1: I don't know, I don't know if they're actually going 360 00:17:39,480 --> 00:17:41,440 Speaker 1: to do that, but this match was you know, Sociate 361 00:17:41,520 --> 00:17:44,800 Speaker 1: had dominated on XG so the last time, so if 362 00:17:44,840 --> 00:17:46,719 Speaker 1: I would have bet anything, it'd Bessociated at plus one. 363 00:17:46,800 --> 00:17:48,800 Speaker 1: I would like a better number. We'll see, Inter's been 364 00:17:50,200 --> 00:17:53,280 Speaker 1: consistently getting steamed in this Champions League, so let's see 365 00:17:53,280 --> 00:17:55,399 Speaker 1: if it happens one more time, I well get a 366 00:17:55,400 --> 00:17:56,440 Speaker 1: better number on Socidad. 367 00:17:57,000 --> 00:17:58,760 Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean the market's been weird on into right, 368 00:17:58,840 --> 00:18:00,520 Speaker 3: like they took money early in the turn, and then 369 00:18:00,680 --> 00:18:02,359 Speaker 3: you know, the last two matches, the fact they didn't 370 00:18:02,400 --> 00:18:05,640 Speaker 3: play a team made a big difference. I mean, they 371 00:18:05,720 --> 00:18:07,879 Speaker 3: ended up closing a pretty solid dog to Benfica and 372 00:18:07,960 --> 00:18:11,399 Speaker 3: they closed barely favored against Salzburg after they were minus 373 00:18:11,480 --> 00:18:13,520 Speaker 3: one on the look aheads away so or on the 374 00:18:13,560 --> 00:18:17,439 Speaker 3: early opens. I think ultimately this is under nothing. Two 375 00:18:17,480 --> 00:18:19,080 Speaker 3: and a half is plus money. I think it should 376 00:18:19,080 --> 00:18:21,119 Speaker 3: be right at two and a half. I know I 377 00:18:21,240 --> 00:18:23,040 Speaker 3: bet the over in the last Intern match because Intern 378 00:18:23,119 --> 00:18:24,560 Speaker 3: Benfica we're just kind of having a day at the 379 00:18:24,600 --> 00:18:27,680 Speaker 3: park and nobody played any defense. But I think if 380 00:18:27,720 --> 00:18:30,280 Speaker 3: anything like Soci dot could rotate some attackers here, I 381 00:18:30,320 --> 00:18:33,479 Speaker 3: don't know that they will big win for them. 382 00:18:33,520 --> 00:18:33,760 Speaker 1: This week. 383 00:18:33,800 --> 00:18:35,920 Speaker 3: They played everybody they have been very Like I said, 384 00:18:36,040 --> 00:18:37,720 Speaker 3: the scariest thing about these two teams, it's just that 385 00:18:37,800 --> 00:18:40,680 Speaker 3: they don't really always play their best attackers, and so 386 00:18:40,760 --> 00:18:43,359 Speaker 3: like will Kubo be out there, like will Sadik be 387 00:18:43,400 --> 00:18:46,800 Speaker 3: out there? It's not entirely clear Men does as well. 388 00:18:47,040 --> 00:18:49,359 Speaker 3: So this is one maybe you play a wait and 389 00:18:49,440 --> 00:18:51,760 Speaker 3: see break it down more. But yeah, from a projection 390 00:18:51,840 --> 00:18:53,520 Speaker 3: standpoint and from like where I view this match, I 391 00:18:53,600 --> 00:18:55,680 Speaker 3: agree with kind of like how this plays out and 392 00:18:55,760 --> 00:18:57,200 Speaker 3: that this is going to be a lower event match, 393 00:18:57,240 --> 00:18:59,560 Speaker 3: and I think when the stakes are high, Soci DoD 394 00:18:59,600 --> 00:19:02,720 Speaker 3: is at its best playing these lower event matches. And 395 00:19:02,920 --> 00:19:05,520 Speaker 3: you don't want to read too much into those two 396 00:19:05,600 --> 00:19:09,280 Speaker 3: matches they just played with Benfica, which were incredibly like 397 00:19:09,680 --> 00:19:13,800 Speaker 3: wide open party time. At least the second match, where 398 00:19:15,359 --> 00:19:15,840 Speaker 3: are the first one. 399 00:19:15,840 --> 00:19:18,360 Speaker 1: Point eight x G in the previous match between these two, 400 00:19:18,760 --> 00:19:21,920 Speaker 1: I'm only protecting two point one, so I'll actually probably 401 00:19:21,920 --> 00:19:24,600 Speaker 1: be on the under with you. I didn't know that 402 00:19:24,920 --> 00:19:26,000 Speaker 1: plus money at this point when. 403 00:19:25,920 --> 00:19:28,200 Speaker 3: I was doing it was plus one ten best number 404 00:19:28,240 --> 00:19:29,080 Speaker 3: out there. I think that's why. 405 00:19:29,520 --> 00:19:31,720 Speaker 1: Uh, well, there you go. I'll be on the under 406 00:19:31,720 --> 00:19:32,000 Speaker 1: of a few. 407 00:19:32,040 --> 00:19:34,359 Speaker 3: Then sounds good, all right, Salisburg Benfica. Let's make this 408 00:19:34,400 --> 00:19:36,840 Speaker 3: one quick. I don't have anything here. If you bet 409 00:19:36,880 --> 00:19:38,800 Speaker 3: Benfica in the last leg, I'm sorry you had the 410 00:19:38,920 --> 00:19:41,600 Speaker 3: right side. They got screwed by some really quite frankly 411 00:19:41,680 --> 00:19:45,000 Speaker 3: bad refereeing decisions after going up three. No, they blew 412 00:19:45,040 --> 00:19:47,360 Speaker 3: the lead. Now we're gonna have some suspensions to deal 413 00:19:47,400 --> 00:19:49,280 Speaker 3: with here. They did show some life like they cared, 414 00:19:49,520 --> 00:19:50,879 Speaker 3: but that was the home match. Right now, they go 415 00:19:50,960 --> 00:19:53,960 Speaker 3: on the road to Salisburg last day. This one's easy 416 00:19:54,000 --> 00:19:55,600 Speaker 3: pass for me. I don't really know what to make 417 00:19:55,680 --> 00:19:58,600 Speaker 3: of Benfica caring about this match and who they'll play 418 00:19:58,720 --> 00:20:01,119 Speaker 3: is another interesting question. So I'm gonna pass here and 419 00:20:01,240 --> 00:20:02,119 Speaker 3: don't really have a ton on it. 420 00:20:02,440 --> 00:20:04,919 Speaker 1: I'm gonna stick my neck out there and take Benefica 421 00:20:06,200 --> 00:20:08,320 Speaker 1: just because of the fact they actually showed like they 422 00:20:08,440 --> 00:20:10,520 Speaker 1: cared against Inter, Like that's what I was looking for. 423 00:20:10,680 --> 00:20:13,520 Speaker 1: It's just some sort of pull, some sort of life, 424 00:20:14,280 --> 00:20:18,000 Speaker 1: and it's just really puzzling what's happened in this Champions 425 00:20:18,080 --> 00:20:20,000 Speaker 1: League to them, because they've obviously been so good in 426 00:20:20,040 --> 00:20:22,199 Speaker 1: the Champions League for many many years now, and their 427 00:20:22,320 --> 00:20:24,680 Speaker 1: underlying metrics in Portugal are really good, like they've beaten 428 00:20:24,760 --> 00:20:27,920 Speaker 1: both Porto and Sporting this season pretty comfortably. On XG 429 00:20:28,040 --> 00:20:30,680 Speaker 1: I might add as well, But for whatever reason, in 430 00:20:30,760 --> 00:20:33,399 Speaker 1: the Champions League they conceded almost fifteen expected goals in 431 00:20:33,480 --> 00:20:36,200 Speaker 1: five matches. Like it doesn't really make much sense what 432 00:20:36,359 --> 00:20:38,200 Speaker 1: is happening? And listen the first match between these two 433 00:20:38,240 --> 00:20:41,960 Speaker 1: teams Salzburg. Beneficka got a red card very very early on, 434 00:20:42,160 --> 00:20:44,199 Speaker 1: so Salzburg pumped them after they were down a man. 435 00:20:44,640 --> 00:20:46,679 Speaker 1: But this Salsburg team, if you look at their other 436 00:20:46,760 --> 00:20:49,800 Speaker 1: four matches against both so Sie That and Inter, they 437 00:20:49,880 --> 00:20:52,720 Speaker 1: got destroyed and all four of those matches they couldn't 438 00:20:52,720 --> 00:20:56,320 Speaker 1: create over one expectable in any of them conceded a 439 00:20:56,440 --> 00:21:00,960 Speaker 1: combined you know, around eight expected goals. So and they're 440 00:21:01,040 --> 00:21:03,520 Speaker 1: just not that great of a team in the Austrian 441 00:21:03,560 --> 00:21:06,119 Speaker 1: bunslinger right now, like they're only around like plus a 442 00:21:06,119 --> 00:21:09,040 Speaker 1: half actually differential for ninety minutes, like they've been consistently 443 00:21:09,080 --> 00:21:11,840 Speaker 1: around plus one for many many years now. They're just 444 00:21:11,920 --> 00:21:14,000 Speaker 1: not the team that we've used to used to seeing 445 00:21:14,040 --> 00:21:17,119 Speaker 1: in these type of Champions League matches. So and Benefice 446 00:21:17,119 --> 00:21:18,320 Speaker 1: has to go for this. They have to win by 447 00:21:18,400 --> 00:21:21,680 Speaker 1: multiple goals, and I expect Salzburg to sit back. So 448 00:21:22,119 --> 00:21:24,960 Speaker 1: and even if Benefica goes up by one, Salisburg's still 449 00:21:24,960 --> 00:21:28,240 Speaker 1: gonna sit in deep. So I project the Beneficet minus 450 00:21:28,280 --> 00:21:30,760 Speaker 1: one oh one. They showed, they showed a pulse against Inter, 451 00:21:31,080 --> 00:21:32,960 Speaker 1: so I'm gonna take them at plus one forty. 452 00:21:33,400 --> 00:21:35,159 Speaker 3: Well, you know it was one two three Cancun when 453 00:21:35,160 --> 00:21:38,800 Speaker 3: they wear one two three Mikinos when they went to 454 00:21:38,920 --> 00:21:41,840 Speaker 3: SOUCIDOD and didn't try. But they came back from vacation 455 00:21:42,000 --> 00:21:44,720 Speaker 3: just in time for the last match, so to give 456 00:21:44,760 --> 00:21:47,600 Speaker 3: some effort the last Here's an interesting thing, like will 457 00:21:47,640 --> 00:21:50,920 Speaker 3: they care last two matches in the Portuguese Premier League. 458 00:21:51,680 --> 00:21:55,439 Speaker 3: They had two like really bad luck draws. Somebody tweeted 459 00:21:55,480 --> 00:21:58,560 Speaker 3: me about the Benfica draw over the weekend against Forens 460 00:21:58,680 --> 00:22:02,080 Speaker 3: that four xg they drew one one and then uh 461 00:22:02,359 --> 00:22:06,000 Speaker 3: maren Morentz as well. Excuse my Portuguese pronunciation is not 462 00:22:06,080 --> 00:22:10,080 Speaker 3: really great also a draw, So like there is some like, oh, 463 00:22:10,200 --> 00:22:11,840 Speaker 3: we haven't you know, one in a while. We should 464 00:22:11,840 --> 00:22:14,000 Speaker 3: probably care at some point. And they do have Braga 465 00:22:14,080 --> 00:22:17,160 Speaker 3: away on Sunday, so they you know, not a great 466 00:22:17,200 --> 00:22:19,639 Speaker 3: spot necessarily with with that being a much more important 467 00:22:19,640 --> 00:22:21,960 Speaker 3: match in the league. But certainly when you haven't won 468 00:22:22,000 --> 00:22:24,280 Speaker 3: in three matches, you know, and you have a chance 469 00:22:24,320 --> 00:22:26,359 Speaker 3: to stay in Europe, Like, you know, Benfica could make 470 00:22:26,359 --> 00:22:28,040 Speaker 3: a run in the Europa League. Wouldn't shock me. It's 471 00:22:28,040 --> 00:22:30,200 Speaker 3: gonna be a tough group to have, tough tournament, but 472 00:22:30,880 --> 00:22:32,600 Speaker 3: you're gonna be in the mix. So I don't hate 473 00:22:32,640 --> 00:22:34,600 Speaker 3: Benfica certainly. Like if you just compare the price from 474 00:22:34,760 --> 00:22:37,560 Speaker 3: when they played the first match three months ago, when 475 00:22:38,400 --> 00:22:40,160 Speaker 3: Benfica was a goal and a half favorite at home, 476 00:22:40,920 --> 00:22:43,440 Speaker 3: you flip home field, they should be laying like three 477 00:22:43,560 --> 00:22:47,639 Speaker 3: quarters of a goal. Okay, we downgraded them obviously, but 478 00:22:47,840 --> 00:22:50,360 Speaker 3: like how much to a pickupm It seems like a lot. 479 00:22:50,760 --> 00:22:53,359 Speaker 3: So I see your point. All right, let's move on 480 00:22:53,400 --> 00:22:56,840 Speaker 3: to the next group, Group D. We do have some 481 00:22:57,000 --> 00:22:59,560 Speaker 3: stakes here. Real Madrid has already won the group. They're 482 00:22:59,560 --> 00:23:03,120 Speaker 3: going to Berlin unon, Berlin could still get third if 483 00:23:03,160 --> 00:23:06,840 Speaker 3: they beat Real Madrid and Braga loses. Could happen. The 484 00:23:06,920 --> 00:23:11,359 Speaker 3: more likely and more interesting scenario Braga visits Napoli. Braga 485 00:23:11,440 --> 00:23:13,679 Speaker 3: needs to win by multiple goals to advance. They are 486 00:23:13,880 --> 00:23:16,400 Speaker 3: three points behind. They lost the reverse fixture by a goal. 487 00:23:16,480 --> 00:23:18,920 Speaker 3: There are three goals behind on goal difference in the group, 488 00:23:19,000 --> 00:23:21,119 Speaker 3: so they need too. They go to Napoli, they are 489 00:23:21,240 --> 00:23:25,080 Speaker 3: sixteen to one to qualify. If you're into that BJ, 490 00:23:25,880 --> 00:23:29,919 Speaker 3: you've been betting Braga all groups. Why are we doing 491 00:23:29,960 --> 00:23:30,280 Speaker 3: it again? 492 00:23:30,760 --> 00:23:34,359 Speaker 1: Well, honestly, that previous match against Napoli it was actually 493 00:23:34,880 --> 00:23:38,080 Speaker 1: very very even. I mean XG was one point seven 494 00:23:38,080 --> 00:23:41,280 Speaker 1: to one point four. Braga had sixteen box entries and 495 00:23:41,359 --> 00:23:43,960 Speaker 1: expected threat of one point nine. They hit the post 496 00:23:44,080 --> 00:23:46,520 Speaker 1: to potentially tie the match at the very end. And 497 00:23:46,800 --> 00:23:49,760 Speaker 1: it really comes down to when you're betting these final 498 00:23:49,840 --> 00:23:53,280 Speaker 1: day Champions League matches, it's good to bet into a 499 00:23:53,400 --> 00:23:56,480 Speaker 1: team that needs to win versus a big favorite that 500 00:23:56,600 --> 00:23:59,840 Speaker 1: only needs a drum, you know, Napoli. I expect them 501 00:23:59,880 --> 00:24:02,600 Speaker 1: to come out pretty conservative here. I don't expect them 502 00:24:02,640 --> 00:24:04,640 Speaker 1: to just like go gung ho and let's just try 503 00:24:04,680 --> 00:24:07,040 Speaker 1: to blitz Bragga right away and like get the goal 504 00:24:07,119 --> 00:24:09,240 Speaker 1: to go ahead. You kind of need to know the 505 00:24:10,119 --> 00:24:12,480 Speaker 1: personality of teams. Like if I was it was Braga 506 00:24:12,560 --> 00:24:14,280 Speaker 1: versus Bayron Munich, I would not be touching this like 507 00:24:14,560 --> 00:24:16,680 Speaker 1: what one bit, even if it was like my you know, 508 00:24:16,920 --> 00:24:18,359 Speaker 1: even if I was getting brought at, you know, plus 509 00:24:18,400 --> 00:24:20,360 Speaker 1: four and a half, because we know what Bayron likes 510 00:24:20,359 --> 00:24:23,199 Speaker 1: to do. But a team like Napoli, who is very 511 00:24:23,200 --> 00:24:26,879 Speaker 1: possession based, very slow progression going forward, and now that 512 00:24:26,920 --> 00:24:29,800 Speaker 1: they're under Walter Massari, who there's some questions of what 513 00:24:29,920 --> 00:24:31,680 Speaker 1: the tactics are going to be here. They can continue 514 00:24:31,720 --> 00:24:33,399 Speaker 1: to play this four to three three like they did 515 00:24:33,560 --> 00:24:36,000 Speaker 1: under Spiletti and Rudy Garcia, or are they gonna switch 516 00:24:36,040 --> 00:24:39,160 Speaker 1: to his patented three five too. Either way, they're going 517 00:24:39,240 --> 00:24:41,159 Speaker 1: to play very conservative in this match because all they 518 00:24:41,200 --> 00:24:43,119 Speaker 1: need is to draw. They cannot win the group over 519 00:24:43,200 --> 00:24:45,280 Speaker 1: Real Madrid. A draw is good enough to get forward. 520 00:24:45,400 --> 00:24:48,120 Speaker 1: So it's a decent spot here to take Braga, who's 521 00:24:48,160 --> 00:24:50,320 Speaker 1: been pretty good in this Champions League group stage. I 522 00:24:50,359 --> 00:24:52,000 Speaker 1: might dad like they had a good performance at home 523 00:24:52,040 --> 00:24:54,359 Speaker 1: against Real Madrid where they won the expected goals battle. 524 00:24:54,560 --> 00:24:57,520 Speaker 1: They went on the road and you know, that match 525 00:24:57,560 --> 00:25:00,400 Speaker 1: against Real Madrid was bad to say, not to say 526 00:25:00,400 --> 00:25:02,800 Speaker 1: the least, but again, they got a red card against 527 00:25:02,880 --> 00:25:04,880 Speaker 1: Leon Blinn and still beat them on XG one point 528 00:25:04,920 --> 00:25:07,880 Speaker 1: eight two point eight. Like, this team's pretty good, quite frankly, 529 00:25:08,119 --> 00:25:11,360 Speaker 1: and I think the market is a little too high 530 00:25:11,560 --> 00:25:15,520 Speaker 1: for a team that just needs a draw, So I 531 00:25:15,680 --> 00:25:18,600 Speaker 1: like Braga plus one. I only projected Napoli closer to 532 00:25:18,680 --> 00:25:21,919 Speaker 1: minus one fifty here, So Braga plus one plus one 533 00:25:22,000 --> 00:25:25,720 Speaker 1: twelves is the best price you can find out there. Again, 534 00:25:25,960 --> 00:25:29,920 Speaker 1: just I like betting against teams that are heavy favorites 535 00:25:29,960 --> 00:25:30,920 Speaker 1: and only needed to draw. 536 00:25:31,760 --> 00:25:34,480 Speaker 3: Yeah, I took some under three minus one twenty five. 537 00:25:34,600 --> 00:25:36,320 Speaker 3: I think this total is a little bit inflated too. 538 00:25:36,800 --> 00:25:36,919 Speaker 2: Uh. 539 00:25:37,160 --> 00:25:40,680 Speaker 3: Braga in general has overperformed their XG dating back a 540 00:25:40,760 --> 00:25:43,320 Speaker 3: while now, and they are there is some aggression coming 541 00:25:43,359 --> 00:25:45,320 Speaker 3: for this team. I Ultimately, I think that the key 542 00:25:45,400 --> 00:25:47,600 Speaker 3: here though, is that this Napoli attack just isn't as 543 00:25:47,600 --> 00:25:50,600 Speaker 3: good as it was last year, and we saw, you know, Cabarch, 544 00:25:50,600 --> 00:25:53,080 Speaker 3: Skellia and Osaman take this huge leap, and I know 545 00:25:53,160 --> 00:25:55,879 Speaker 3: that they haven't been fully healthy this year, but if 546 00:25:55,920 --> 00:25:58,080 Speaker 3: you just look at like attacking output in Syria, it's 547 00:25:58,200 --> 00:26:01,000 Speaker 3: down year over year for this team, and I think 548 00:26:01,080 --> 00:26:03,879 Speaker 3: that tells an interesting story, like they're there, haven't run 549 00:26:03,920 --> 00:26:08,040 Speaker 3: as good, sure, but in terms of creating expected goals 550 00:26:08,080 --> 00:26:09,920 Speaker 3: for ninety it's down considerably, and I don't think the 551 00:26:09,960 --> 00:26:11,359 Speaker 3: market's really caught on yet. I mean, if you look 552 00:26:11,359 --> 00:26:13,320 Speaker 3: at what Napole he has done this Champions League. They 553 00:26:13,400 --> 00:26:15,800 Speaker 3: played two crazy wide open back and forth matches with 554 00:26:15,840 --> 00:26:19,320 Speaker 3: Real Madrid, which like everybody plays with Real Madrid and 555 00:26:19,440 --> 00:26:22,400 Speaker 3: loses to them. But the other matches in this group 556 00:26:22,440 --> 00:26:23,960 Speaker 3: have not been open. If you go back and remember 557 00:26:24,000 --> 00:26:26,399 Speaker 3: brag and Naple you talked about it, almost all of 558 00:26:26,480 --> 00:26:28,240 Speaker 3: the chances came in the last ten minutes. It was 559 00:26:28,320 --> 00:26:32,720 Speaker 3: like dead game, one nil for a while, nil nol 560 00:26:32,720 --> 00:26:34,040 Speaker 3: for a while, then one nil for a little bit, 561 00:26:34,080 --> 00:26:36,120 Speaker 3: and then all of a sudden like bang bang bang bang, 562 00:26:36,200 --> 00:26:38,239 Speaker 3: like it was two to one Napoli one. There were 563 00:26:38,320 --> 00:26:40,720 Speaker 3: like three really big chances missed in stoppage time, like 564 00:26:40,760 --> 00:26:43,240 Speaker 3: it was chaos at the very end, But the majority 565 00:26:43,240 --> 00:26:46,119 Speaker 3: of that match was played in a very controlled not 566 00:26:46,680 --> 00:26:49,560 Speaker 3: a ton of pressing on either end, So I really 567 00:26:49,600 --> 00:26:52,919 Speaker 3: don't think there's a ton of like chaotic possession here. 568 00:26:52,920 --> 00:26:54,400 Speaker 3: I think it's gonna be a lot of settled possession 569 00:26:55,800 --> 00:26:57,560 Speaker 3: and most this total's too hot, so I know three 570 00:26:57,600 --> 00:27:02,760 Speaker 3: minus one twenty five for me if you are excited 571 00:27:02,920 --> 00:27:05,600 Speaker 3: or interested or want to watch Real Madrid. They've conceded 572 00:27:05,600 --> 00:27:07,560 Speaker 3: at least one expected goal in five of their last 573 00:27:07,560 --> 00:27:12,880 Speaker 3: six matches. They continue to be overvalued defensively. I don't 574 00:27:12,920 --> 00:27:14,399 Speaker 3: know how much they're going to care, which I think 575 00:27:14,440 --> 00:27:18,280 Speaker 3: plays into the angle of going after them again with 576 00:27:18,400 --> 00:27:21,360 Speaker 3: these team totals. We cashed the Napoli ones a couple 577 00:27:21,359 --> 00:27:23,119 Speaker 3: of weeks ago, even though we lost you know, the 578 00:27:23,320 --> 00:27:27,760 Speaker 3: big battle plus a half. But like Union, Berlin couldn't 579 00:27:27,760 --> 00:27:30,119 Speaker 3: score for months, fired Fisher, they got three over the 580 00:27:30,119 --> 00:27:34,159 Speaker 3: weekend against Goldbach. They've been okay. They changed formations, they 581 00:27:34,200 --> 00:27:35,600 Speaker 3: got out of the back three. They've been playing a 582 00:27:35,680 --> 00:27:38,680 Speaker 3: back four under the new manager. Like if you wanted 583 00:27:38,720 --> 00:27:40,520 Speaker 3: to get creative here, I think it's not a bad 584 00:27:40,560 --> 00:27:43,879 Speaker 3: idea to look at, like a first half team total 585 00:27:44,400 --> 00:27:48,520 Speaker 3: on our boys unon Berlin in this one the first 586 00:27:48,520 --> 00:27:53,119 Speaker 3: the first half team total in the plus one twenty 587 00:27:53,160 --> 00:27:54,879 Speaker 3: five could be interesting. 588 00:27:55,600 --> 00:28:00,320 Speaker 1: Interesting. Yeah, I know you have a disease and you 589 00:28:00,440 --> 00:28:03,560 Speaker 1: love to shade Real Madrid. You don't have that disease yet, 590 00:28:04,560 --> 00:28:07,720 Speaker 1: so this is a pretty easy pass for me. 591 00:28:08,440 --> 00:28:11,280 Speaker 3: I'm getting more creative because I actually do enjoy watching 592 00:28:11,320 --> 00:28:15,560 Speaker 3: them play attacking football. It's enjoyable to watch. But their 593 00:28:15,600 --> 00:28:20,160 Speaker 3: defense is so so bad and it's just the market's 594 00:28:20,320 --> 00:28:22,840 Speaker 3: not adjusted to it yet. Eventually they will. It's gonna 595 00:28:22,840 --> 00:28:25,200 Speaker 3: take them losing like four four to three to like 596 00:28:25,320 --> 00:28:27,960 Speaker 3: Valencia or something, and then in the market we be like, 597 00:28:28,000 --> 00:28:31,080 Speaker 3: oh they're actually bad. Oh they already beat Valencia five 598 00:28:31,119 --> 00:28:33,720 Speaker 3: to one. So but again, like Valencia team total minus 599 00:28:33,760 --> 00:28:35,520 Speaker 3: one ten to score in that match. Okay, group be 600 00:28:35,760 --> 00:28:39,640 Speaker 3: both dead rubbers. Arsenal, your boys are your guys. 601 00:28:40,080 --> 00:28:40,680 Speaker 1: We're on the beach. 602 00:28:41,200 --> 00:28:44,200 Speaker 3: On the beach. They opened plus one oh five, and 603 00:28:44,280 --> 00:28:46,120 Speaker 3: in hindsight, I probably should have bet some PSV there. 604 00:28:46,800 --> 00:28:50,440 Speaker 3: Now it's a pick them. Basically, I've got nothing here. 605 00:28:50,960 --> 00:28:52,600 Speaker 3: I don't know what team Arsenal will play. They're in 606 00:28:52,640 --> 00:28:54,360 Speaker 3: the middle of this crazy fixture run here in the 607 00:28:54,400 --> 00:28:57,800 Speaker 3: prem with the midweek matches. Our Tenna didn't really give 608 00:28:57,800 --> 00:29:00,680 Speaker 3: anything away, but like, there's no way so plays, right, 609 00:29:00,720 --> 00:29:02,360 Speaker 3: There's no way Jesus plays. 610 00:29:03,080 --> 00:29:05,760 Speaker 1: On the weekend. So they really should rest a lot 611 00:29:05,800 --> 00:29:06,320 Speaker 1: of guys here. 612 00:29:06,640 --> 00:29:09,720 Speaker 3: Yeah, and it would be I think for me psv 613 00:29:09,840 --> 00:29:12,600 Speaker 3: or nothing definitely not playing Arsenal's road road pick. 614 00:29:12,480 --> 00:29:18,120 Speaker 1: Them passing the hoard just there's so many better matches 615 00:29:18,160 --> 00:29:18,920 Speaker 1: with bigger stakes. 616 00:29:19,280 --> 00:29:22,200 Speaker 3: And then Lawn hosts Sevilla. I've also got nothing here. 617 00:29:22,240 --> 00:29:24,719 Speaker 3: Also a dead rubber, yeah, Sevilla. 618 00:29:24,840 --> 00:29:29,080 Speaker 1: That was kind of interesting. Officially, Sevia obviously needs to 619 00:29:29,120 --> 00:29:31,120 Speaker 1: win to get to the Europeis they can make another 620 00:29:31,240 --> 00:29:34,040 Speaker 1: luck box run and get back in the Champions League. 621 00:29:35,760 --> 00:29:37,920 Speaker 1: They're going to play very aggressive. They're going to play 622 00:29:38,040 --> 00:29:40,880 Speaker 1: very open, which is going to leave a lot of 623 00:29:40,960 --> 00:29:44,760 Speaker 1: space for Lonz, who's a pretty good transition based team, 624 00:29:44,920 --> 00:29:48,440 Speaker 1: So could see some chaos back and forth. There did 625 00:29:48,520 --> 00:29:50,880 Speaker 1: project closer to three goals, so I'll be staring at 626 00:29:50,920 --> 00:29:52,800 Speaker 1: that for a while, but they're going to play some 627 00:29:52,840 --> 00:29:54,440 Speaker 1: in this match. If there's a little bit of. 628 00:29:54,440 --> 00:29:56,800 Speaker 3: Value in the over Let's moved to Wednesday, we're gonna 629 00:29:56,800 --> 00:29:59,360 Speaker 3: start at the top Group of death, Group F I'm 630 00:29:59,360 --> 00:30:01,920 Speaker 3: gonna run through. So scenarios dortman has already clinched the 631 00:30:01,920 --> 00:30:04,080 Speaker 3: spot in the round of sixteen. They will win the 632 00:30:04,120 --> 00:30:06,800 Speaker 3: group of death. They were the longest odds to do 633 00:30:06,920 --> 00:30:09,120 Speaker 3: so they will win the group with a win or 634 00:30:09,200 --> 00:30:12,440 Speaker 3: a draw at home against PSG. If PSG wins the match, 635 00:30:12,760 --> 00:30:15,880 Speaker 3: PSG wins the group, Dortmuann goes through in second. The 636 00:30:15,960 --> 00:30:18,400 Speaker 3: other match is deemed irrelevant for that and they'll decide 637 00:30:18,400 --> 00:30:23,200 Speaker 3: your ow beliague. If PSG gets a draw, they will advance. 638 00:30:23,840 --> 00:30:26,320 Speaker 3: If Milan wins or draws in the other match, but 639 00:30:26,400 --> 00:30:30,360 Speaker 3: PSG could be out with a draw. If Newcastle wins 640 00:30:30,520 --> 00:30:33,800 Speaker 3: against Milan at home, Newcastle needs a win plus a 641 00:30:33,840 --> 00:30:37,800 Speaker 3: PSG draw loss. Milan needs a win plus a PSG loss. 642 00:30:37,880 --> 00:30:41,000 Speaker 3: So there's all kinds of crazy scenarios that go into 643 00:30:41,080 --> 00:30:43,800 Speaker 3: the last three spots being decided, also the group winner 644 00:30:43,880 --> 00:30:47,000 Speaker 3: being decided. Basically, here's the reality. Dortmund and PSG are 645 00:30:47,040 --> 00:30:48,600 Speaker 3: a coin flip to win the group minus one ten 646 00:30:48,600 --> 00:30:51,320 Speaker 3: each way. PSG's minus one ten to beat Dortmund, so 647 00:30:51,400 --> 00:30:54,080 Speaker 3: there minus one ten to win the group. PSG is 648 00:30:54,160 --> 00:30:57,600 Speaker 3: minus two to fifty two advance, clearly heavily favored Newcastle 649 00:30:57,640 --> 00:31:01,440 Speaker 3: plus one seventy five Milan fourteen one those odds courtesy 650 00:31:01,520 --> 00:31:03,840 Speaker 3: a bet three sixty five. So just like at a 651 00:31:03,880 --> 00:31:06,200 Speaker 3: glance before we get into the two matches, any interest 652 00:31:06,240 --> 00:31:08,040 Speaker 3: in Newcastle plus one seventy five because we're gonna have 653 00:31:08,080 --> 00:31:09,240 Speaker 3: to have a conversation. We're gonna have to start a 654 00:31:09,280 --> 00:31:11,040 Speaker 3: dialogue about Newcastle after this week. 655 00:31:11,520 --> 00:31:14,040 Speaker 1: Well, I am showing a little bit of value on Dormant. 656 00:31:14,720 --> 00:31:16,840 Speaker 1: They really don't want to play Dormant. I really don't. 657 00:31:17,880 --> 00:31:19,440 Speaker 1: They suck. They got I mean obviously got a red 658 00:31:19,480 --> 00:31:22,440 Speaker 1: carter early against Leipsig over the weekend. About their defensive 659 00:31:22,440 --> 00:31:26,440 Speaker 1: pormance against lever Housten. Prior to that was terrible against 660 00:31:26,440 --> 00:31:29,960 Speaker 1: Stuttgart in the German Cup. It was terrible, Just like 661 00:31:30,040 --> 00:31:32,720 Speaker 1: we've been talking about a team that just has no 662 00:31:32,880 --> 00:31:35,560 Speaker 1: bas stoppers, like they just can't stop anybody in transition 663 00:31:35,680 --> 00:31:37,760 Speaker 1: or building under the back. Their pressing isn't that great 664 00:31:38,280 --> 00:31:43,360 Speaker 1: and PSG dominated them in the previous match. So that's 665 00:31:43,400 --> 00:31:46,120 Speaker 1: the hold up here, because I do think we'll get 666 00:31:46,120 --> 00:31:48,440 Speaker 1: to Newcastle on the second, which I'm kind of getting 667 00:31:48,480 --> 00:31:54,440 Speaker 1: all sad on them as well. But PSG winning this 668 00:31:54,560 --> 00:31:57,479 Speaker 1: group is going to be very very important to them 669 00:31:57,480 --> 00:31:59,560 Speaker 1: because if you look at around who the first place 670 00:31:59,600 --> 00:32:01,800 Speaker 1: teams are around the Champions League, it's going to be City, 671 00:32:02,400 --> 00:32:06,880 Speaker 1: Barsa Athleti cor Lazzio inter associatead Real Madrid, Arsenal, Byron 672 00:32:06,960 --> 00:32:10,240 Speaker 1: Munich the second place. There's a really big drop off there. 673 00:32:10,280 --> 00:32:14,160 Speaker 1: So if they can't get a result here, not only 674 00:32:14,160 --> 00:32:17,440 Speaker 1: would maybe be out of the competition, but they are 675 00:32:17,480 --> 00:32:21,320 Speaker 1: going to get paired against again, maybe against a City 676 00:32:21,600 --> 00:32:23,800 Speaker 1: or a Byron or have to play Arsenal, and then 677 00:32:24,480 --> 00:32:27,920 Speaker 1: their hopes of winning the Champions they go down extremely significantly. 678 00:32:28,000 --> 00:32:31,280 Speaker 1: So it's very very important that PSG wins this match. Ultimately, 679 00:32:31,320 --> 00:32:33,160 Speaker 1: I think they do. I'm just not laying it on 680 00:32:33,200 --> 00:32:35,400 Speaker 1: the road with them here in this type of scenario. 681 00:32:35,720 --> 00:32:39,760 Speaker 1: So from a high level Newcastle, the fixture pile up 682 00:32:39,800 --> 00:32:41,840 Speaker 1: for them is really real and the fact that they're 683 00:32:41,880 --> 00:32:43,520 Speaker 1: going through this injury crisis and they have to played 684 00:32:43,520 --> 00:32:46,200 Speaker 1: the same starting eleven over and over and over again, 685 00:32:46,920 --> 00:32:49,800 Speaker 1: it just caught up with them against Tottenham today. Tottenham 686 00:32:49,840 --> 00:32:53,360 Speaker 1: pumped them, caught the Thursday. They caught them Thursday too, 687 00:32:53,520 --> 00:32:55,560 Speaker 1: and it's the way, and obviously they've been terrible away 688 00:32:55,600 --> 00:32:57,520 Speaker 1: from home. But now we're back at Saint James Park 689 00:32:57,960 --> 00:33:01,360 Speaker 1: where you know, they had a similar against Manchester United 690 00:33:01,440 --> 00:33:03,840 Speaker 1: where they had to fix your pile up where they 691 00:33:03,880 --> 00:33:05,760 Speaker 1: had to play Chelsea. They had to play at Chelsea 692 00:33:06,360 --> 00:33:09,680 Speaker 1: and then a Champions League match against PSG in Paris, 693 00:33:09,720 --> 00:33:11,920 Speaker 1: and then they came back to Saint James Park, had 694 00:33:11,920 --> 00:33:13,720 Speaker 1: a great performance against United and then they go down 695 00:33:13,760 --> 00:33:16,920 Speaker 1: the road twice and get pumped by Everton and Tottenham. 696 00:33:17,080 --> 00:33:19,840 Speaker 1: So they're back at home. They're like one of the 697 00:33:19,880 --> 00:33:24,160 Speaker 1: biggest home roads split drastic teams this season. But given 698 00:33:24,200 --> 00:33:27,360 Speaker 1: the way that Anyhowe wants to play, given how physical, 699 00:33:27,480 --> 00:33:30,080 Speaker 1: how intense press how intense the pressing they wanted to do, 700 00:33:30,960 --> 00:33:32,560 Speaker 1: it's just really hard to back a team that has 701 00:33:32,600 --> 00:33:34,240 Speaker 1: no depth and has to play the same story eleven 702 00:33:34,320 --> 00:33:37,760 Speaker 1: over and over and over again. So I'm actually passing 703 00:33:37,800 --> 00:33:42,200 Speaker 1: them both matches again. I'm staring at dormant. I really 704 00:33:42,280 --> 00:33:45,000 Speaker 1: don't want to play them, like they're just so bad 705 00:33:45,040 --> 00:33:46,600 Speaker 1: and I don't really understand how they were going to 706 00:33:46,800 --> 00:33:49,080 Speaker 1: potentially win this group. It'll be a fun team to 707 00:33:49,080 --> 00:33:50,960 Speaker 1: fay once we get to the round of sixteen. But 708 00:33:51,600 --> 00:33:54,520 Speaker 1: it's hard to back Newcastle right now. Quite honestly, there's 709 00:33:54,560 --> 00:33:56,040 Speaker 1: a better spot to back them coming off in the 710 00:33:56,120 --> 00:33:58,840 Speaker 1: Premier League speakend, which we'll talk about Wednesday. 711 00:34:00,000 --> 00:34:02,000 Speaker 3: Incredible. Okay, well, I think it's interesting to put it 712 00:34:02,000 --> 00:34:05,400 Speaker 3: in perspective. Right Newcastle is a bigger favorite in this 713 00:34:05,520 --> 00:34:07,680 Speaker 3: match basically the same but a slightly bigger favorite in 714 00:34:07,760 --> 00:34:11,400 Speaker 3: this match at home against Milan. And they are against 715 00:34:11,440 --> 00:34:14,239 Speaker 3: Fulham in the Champions League or in the Premier League 716 00:34:14,280 --> 00:34:15,120 Speaker 3: this weekend coming up. 717 00:34:15,160 --> 00:34:16,799 Speaker 1: I mean the best team in the world now. 718 00:34:17,880 --> 00:34:19,960 Speaker 3: Ful the scored every shot for the last two months. 719 00:34:20,080 --> 00:34:22,839 Speaker 3: Raoul Jamenez has found the fountain of youth. We'll get 720 00:34:22,880 --> 00:34:25,200 Speaker 3: to Fulham over the weekend on the Wednesday night show. 721 00:34:25,600 --> 00:34:28,399 Speaker 3: But the biggest thing here is that what the hell 722 00:34:28,440 --> 00:34:31,840 Speaker 3: has happened to these two defenses Newcastle Milan, because Milan, 723 00:34:32,280 --> 00:34:34,319 Speaker 3: i'd argue, has been worse. If you look at their 724 00:34:34,360 --> 00:34:36,960 Speaker 3: defensive numbers, I mean frozen one, got one late, could 725 00:34:36,960 --> 00:34:39,440 Speaker 3: have had multiple goals in that match. Uh they gave 726 00:34:39,520 --> 00:34:43,360 Speaker 3: up over three xtet Atalanta an Adelanta team that is 727 00:34:43,480 --> 00:34:46,440 Speaker 3: not the Atalanta you remember. This is not your slightly 728 00:34:46,440 --> 00:34:49,279 Speaker 3: older brothers Adelanta. This is like an Adelanta team that's 729 00:34:49,280 --> 00:34:52,759 Speaker 3: like defense first and can't really score recently three point 730 00:34:52,800 --> 00:34:54,560 Speaker 3: three x G. You know, we don't really love this 731 00:34:54,640 --> 00:34:57,240 Speaker 3: dormant team to expected goals. If you were in Tina 732 00:34:57,800 --> 00:35:01,400 Speaker 3: with all of their attackers out inspected goals Lecha one 733 00:35:01,480 --> 00:35:04,719 Speaker 3: point four PSG one point five, Napoli one point seven, 734 00:35:04,800 --> 00:35:08,080 Speaker 3: udonez one point four, u've a one point four PSG 735 00:35:08,239 --> 00:35:10,800 Speaker 3: one point three. I mean, this defense is not good anymore, 736 00:35:10,920 --> 00:35:13,440 Speaker 3: and they haven't been good for months and now. The 737 00:35:13,560 --> 00:35:15,879 Speaker 3: thing that made Milan's defense good was that they could 738 00:35:15,920 --> 00:35:18,320 Speaker 3: sit deep and not attack with numbers. But they have 739 00:35:18,480 --> 00:35:20,239 Speaker 3: to do that. They have to win. The draw does 740 00:35:20,320 --> 00:35:23,040 Speaker 3: them nothing here. They get no equity out of a draw. 741 00:35:23,280 --> 00:35:25,600 Speaker 3: They have to send numbers forward and their best attacking 742 00:35:25,640 --> 00:35:28,080 Speaker 3: player is training and going to be back here. Leao, 743 00:35:28,480 --> 00:35:30,000 Speaker 3: So I know I bet the under in the first 744 00:35:30,040 --> 00:35:33,680 Speaker 3: match when they played, the circumstances were very different. The 745 00:35:33,800 --> 00:35:36,200 Speaker 3: number was even better. Now it's over two and a 746 00:35:36,239 --> 00:35:38,920 Speaker 3: half at minus one twenty. Crazy to me, I think 747 00:35:38,960 --> 00:35:41,839 Speaker 3: this is way too low because Newcastle has injuries. Most 748 00:35:41,840 --> 00:35:45,480 Speaker 3: of them are defensive. It's Batman, it's burn, it's Pope 749 00:35:46,120 --> 00:35:49,560 Speaker 3: and those are all significant downgrades to the guys that 750 00:35:49,560 --> 00:35:52,200 Speaker 3: they're playing right now. Karen Tripier has been a disaster defensively. 751 00:35:52,200 --> 00:35:54,080 Speaker 3: He's been responsible for four of their last six goals, 752 00:35:54,480 --> 00:35:57,319 Speaker 3: just individual errors and not marking runners and not heading 753 00:35:57,440 --> 00:36:01,400 Speaker 3: balls and tripping over his own feet. This team is 754 00:36:01,480 --> 00:36:04,759 Speaker 3: defensively really flawed. I think it's really interesting to me 755 00:36:04,920 --> 00:36:09,480 Speaker 3: that they've played. Their last away win in Europe or 756 00:36:09,680 --> 00:36:12,680 Speaker 3: the Premier League was an eight to zero against Sheffield 757 00:36:12,760 --> 00:36:16,680 Speaker 3: United in l NFL Week three. That's how long ago 758 00:36:16,760 --> 00:36:19,520 Speaker 3: it was. That was back September twenty fourth. They had 759 00:36:19,600 --> 00:36:22,040 Speaker 3: one win against the United and the Carabell Cup. They 760 00:36:22,080 --> 00:36:23,799 Speaker 3: have not been good away from home, but at home 761 00:36:24,320 --> 00:36:29,760 Speaker 3: Thump Palace, beat Arsenal, beat Chelsea, pretty good beat United now. Granted, 762 00:36:30,440 --> 00:36:32,880 Speaker 3: the two big wins they've had since the injury crisis 763 00:36:32,960 --> 00:36:36,640 Speaker 3: started are Chelsea and Man United, and like, what do 764 00:36:36,719 --> 00:36:39,320 Speaker 3: we think of those teams? Not much right now, So 765 00:36:40,160 --> 00:36:42,680 Speaker 3: I'm perplexed on the side here. I think the numbers right, 766 00:36:43,200 --> 00:36:44,879 Speaker 3: Like if it was a flat even money, I would 767 00:36:44,880 --> 00:36:48,359 Speaker 3: take Newcastle, of course, but I don't really think it's 768 00:36:48,400 --> 00:36:50,840 Speaker 3: going to get there, So I'm playing the over instead. 769 00:36:50,880 --> 00:36:52,120 Speaker 3: Over two and a half goals for me, I think 770 00:36:52,160 --> 00:36:54,440 Speaker 3: this total was way too low with Leout coming back. 771 00:36:54,800 --> 00:36:57,040 Speaker 3: Too bad defenses at the moment. They're not always bad, 772 00:36:57,080 --> 00:37:00,680 Speaker 3: but they're both bad right now. And I think the 773 00:37:00,760 --> 00:37:03,400 Speaker 3: fatigue element is impacting their press, which is impacting their 774 00:37:03,400 --> 00:37:06,040 Speaker 3: defense more than impacting their attack. And they had almost 775 00:37:06,080 --> 00:37:10,960 Speaker 3: two XG today so they couldn't create chances. So over 776 00:37:11,040 --> 00:37:12,800 Speaker 3: two and a half I love that. In Newcastle Milan 777 00:37:12,880 --> 00:37:15,759 Speaker 3: the PSG total to me scenms about right at three. 778 00:37:16,160 --> 00:37:18,279 Speaker 3: I lean toward PSG personally just because I think this 779 00:37:18,360 --> 00:37:20,960 Speaker 3: Dortmund team is so fraudulent. PSG might be figuring some 780 00:37:21,080 --> 00:37:24,279 Speaker 3: things out. They still have some defensive issues. The problem 781 00:37:24,360 --> 00:37:25,799 Speaker 3: is like full Crew is their best striker, but they 782 00:37:25,840 --> 00:37:29,799 Speaker 3: can't press with him, just can't really move. He doesn't 783 00:37:29,800 --> 00:37:31,600 Speaker 3: press well, so they get kind of boxed in and 784 00:37:31,640 --> 00:37:33,200 Speaker 3: then they don't have any ball stoppers. So the whole 785 00:37:33,200 --> 00:37:35,960 Speaker 3: middle of the team is just a sieve defensively and 786 00:37:36,040 --> 00:37:38,960 Speaker 3: it's not good. So I do think PSG ultimately wins this, 787 00:37:39,040 --> 00:37:42,560 Speaker 3: but I will go PSG to win and Newcastle to 788 00:37:42,600 --> 00:37:43,920 Speaker 3: the Europa League. I think they get like a two 789 00:37:43,920 --> 00:37:45,760 Speaker 3: to two draw go through. 790 00:37:45,920 --> 00:37:48,440 Speaker 1: Quite frankly, and I mean if Newcastle can't like if 791 00:37:48,440 --> 00:37:50,040 Speaker 1: it's very clear that they're not gonna be able to 792 00:37:50,080 --> 00:37:52,200 Speaker 1: make it to the Champions League. Like I know this 793 00:37:52,320 --> 00:37:54,480 Speaker 1: sounds terrible, but their best method of getting in the 794 00:37:54,520 --> 00:37:57,160 Speaker 1: top four is just getting knocked out of this competition, 795 00:37:57,400 --> 00:37:59,480 Speaker 1: like giving their injury crisis and the way of the 796 00:37:59,520 --> 00:38:02,319 Speaker 1: style of play, like they were so good last year 797 00:38:02,360 --> 00:38:04,239 Speaker 1: where they just had one match to play a week 798 00:38:04,400 --> 00:38:06,839 Speaker 1: and because they got knocked out of the FA Cup 799 00:38:06,880 --> 00:38:10,200 Speaker 1: pretty early, so they just were able to just go 800 00:38:10,280 --> 00:38:12,239 Speaker 1: gung ho and if you look at I know they 801 00:38:12,360 --> 00:38:15,560 Speaker 1: killed United, but especially against Chelsea, it was coming off 802 00:38:15,600 --> 00:38:18,440 Speaker 1: an international break where they had rest, they could get 803 00:38:18,480 --> 00:38:22,360 Speaker 1: some guys back from injury, and they looked great and 804 00:38:22,400 --> 00:38:24,600 Speaker 1: they actually pressed with their four to three three. What's 805 00:38:24,640 --> 00:38:26,360 Speaker 1: been happening is they've had to sit back at a 806 00:38:27,120 --> 00:38:29,240 Speaker 1: four or five to one, a little bit more passive 807 00:38:29,320 --> 00:38:31,799 Speaker 1: time mid block, and teams are kind of just playing 808 00:38:31,880 --> 00:38:34,440 Speaker 1: right through them, and that is the issue for them. 809 00:38:34,520 --> 00:38:36,759 Speaker 1: So I agree with you. I think they're probably gonna 810 00:38:36,760 --> 00:38:38,160 Speaker 1: sit back in that past of four or five to 811 00:38:38,200 --> 00:38:39,880 Speaker 1: one here against Milan because I don't think they have 812 00:38:39,960 --> 00:38:42,879 Speaker 1: the legs to quite frankly, keep going up and keep 813 00:38:42,960 --> 00:38:47,040 Speaker 1: pressing and we playing three matches in a week. So yeah, 814 00:38:47,080 --> 00:38:48,200 Speaker 1: if I had to play anything, I agree with you. 815 00:38:48,239 --> 00:38:50,239 Speaker 1: I'd take the over and Milan Newcastle. 816 00:38:51,680 --> 00:38:54,680 Speaker 3: All right, let's move to Group H. Very simple. Barss 817 00:38:54,680 --> 00:38:58,359 Speaker 3: won the group Antwerp's fourth, Porto and Shaktar are tied 818 00:38:58,400 --> 00:39:02,319 Speaker 3: for second. Right now, wins or draws, they advance. If 819 00:39:02,360 --> 00:39:05,400 Speaker 3: Shaktar wins, they advance. Porto has been a little bit 820 00:39:05,440 --> 00:39:06,960 Speaker 3: shaky in this group. They haven't been dominant like we 821 00:39:06,960 --> 00:39:09,080 Speaker 3: thought they might be the clear second. They haven't really 822 00:39:09,120 --> 00:39:12,520 Speaker 3: been a clear second. Overall, they're laying a goal here. 823 00:39:13,200 --> 00:39:17,279 Speaker 3: Bj we taking the dog. Yes I'm perfect passing. 824 00:39:17,080 --> 00:39:19,759 Speaker 1: But yep, I am taking the dog. Shaktar plus one 825 00:39:19,960 --> 00:39:22,640 Speaker 1: plus one ten. Portal won the first meeting three to one, 826 00:39:24,080 --> 00:39:26,040 Speaker 1: and it's pretty simple for Shocktar. They need to win 827 00:39:26,120 --> 00:39:28,360 Speaker 1: this match by two or more goals to you have 828 00:39:28,440 --> 00:39:30,319 Speaker 1: a shot at getting the round of sixteen. They're going 829 00:39:30,400 --> 00:39:34,360 Speaker 1: to be behind Portal on goal differential, I believe, so 830 00:39:34,520 --> 00:39:36,480 Speaker 1: they're probably gonna need to win this by three goals, 831 00:39:37,239 --> 00:39:40,520 Speaker 1: which looks pretty daunting. But if you go back to 832 00:39:40,560 --> 00:39:44,600 Speaker 1: that first meeting, it was a really bad position for Shocktar. 833 00:39:44,640 --> 00:39:46,759 Speaker 1: They were under a different manager and they were without 834 00:39:46,800 --> 00:39:48,839 Speaker 1: both of their startup center back, so it really wasn't 835 00:39:48,880 --> 00:39:50,920 Speaker 1: a great scenario even though they were playing obviously on 836 00:39:50,960 --> 00:39:54,600 Speaker 1: a neutral site. But outside of that game, Shocktar has 837 00:39:54,760 --> 00:39:56,960 Speaker 1: actually been pretty decent in this group stage. Like they've 838 00:39:56,960 --> 00:39:59,760 Speaker 1: been dominated against Antwerp, they got to win against Barcelona 839 00:39:59,760 --> 00:40:01,759 Speaker 1: where they or even on XG with them obviously the 840 00:40:01,840 --> 00:40:03,799 Speaker 1: road manchgicinst Barcelona and they kind of got pumped, although 841 00:40:03,800 --> 00:40:06,200 Speaker 1: they did look pretty good and transitional moments after they 842 00:40:06,239 --> 00:40:09,960 Speaker 1: went and fell behind. But again, it's very important to 843 00:40:10,040 --> 00:40:12,360 Speaker 1: not only know the scenario of some of these big favorites, 844 00:40:12,920 --> 00:40:16,239 Speaker 1: but the personality and traits of their teams. Porto is 845 00:40:16,320 --> 00:40:19,640 Speaker 1: a very passive, four to four to two conservative type 846 00:40:19,680 --> 00:40:22,320 Speaker 1: of team. They're going to hand the ball to Shaktar 847 00:40:22,400 --> 00:40:24,799 Speaker 1: and they're going to say I dare you to break 848 00:40:24,880 --> 00:40:27,160 Speaker 1: us down over and over again. And even if Shocktar scores, 849 00:40:27,400 --> 00:40:29,719 Speaker 1: they're still gonna sit in that low defensive block. And 850 00:40:29,880 --> 00:40:34,480 Speaker 1: I really don't see a scenario where Porto is going 851 00:40:34,560 --> 00:40:38,200 Speaker 1: to send numbers and numbers of attackers going forward. You know, 852 00:40:38,280 --> 00:40:39,480 Speaker 1: if it was again, if it was a team that 853 00:40:39,520 --> 00:40:41,799 Speaker 1: plays more aggressively, they'd go try to kill this thing 854 00:40:41,880 --> 00:40:43,880 Speaker 1: off right away. They'd score and they'd say, all right, 855 00:40:43,920 --> 00:40:46,960 Speaker 1: we're done, like this tie is over. But the Porto 856 00:40:47,080 --> 00:40:51,120 Speaker 1: defensive numbers, although they're always really good in Portugal, this season, 857 00:40:51,160 --> 00:40:54,040 Speaker 1: they haven't, you know, been as dominant as years past. 858 00:40:54,120 --> 00:40:56,600 Speaker 1: I know, you know, they're allowing zero point ninety five 859 00:40:56,680 --> 00:40:58,920 Speaker 1: act she per ninety, which I know sounds great, but 860 00:40:59,120 --> 00:41:01,560 Speaker 1: in years past they'd been around zero point sixty five 861 00:41:01,800 --> 00:41:04,719 Speaker 1: point seven. So the defensive numbers have gone down a 862 00:41:04,840 --> 00:41:08,520 Speaker 1: little bit. And Shottar, they've looked decent in transition in 863 00:41:08,600 --> 00:41:10,840 Speaker 1: moments here. So for a match that's probably gonna be 864 00:41:10,920 --> 00:41:13,239 Speaker 1: very transitional based, if you know. Because obviously Porto's not 865 00:41:13,320 --> 00:41:16,560 Speaker 1: a team likes to hold out of possession. I think 866 00:41:16,560 --> 00:41:19,120 Speaker 1: it's a decent spot to back Shaktar here. So I 867 00:41:19,239 --> 00:41:23,239 Speaker 1: like them plus one plus one ten Again, they need 868 00:41:23,280 --> 00:41:24,680 Speaker 1: to win by three goals. They have to go for 869 00:41:24,800 --> 00:41:28,319 Speaker 1: this in Porto, given their conservative nature, I think they're 870 00:41:28,360 --> 00:41:29,839 Speaker 1: just gonna sit deep and they're gonna dare and break 871 00:41:29,880 --> 00:41:31,520 Speaker 1: them down. So I like Shakkar. 872 00:41:32,160 --> 00:41:34,919 Speaker 3: Maybe I'll join the courage if you like Shacktar I played. 873 00:41:35,120 --> 00:41:36,920 Speaker 3: I mean, I feel like the money line Sprinkle five 874 00:41:36,960 --> 00:41:39,960 Speaker 3: to one to advance m with Leebofer here, he would 875 00:41:39,960 --> 00:41:41,320 Speaker 3: tell us that we have to sprinkle shock. 876 00:41:41,160 --> 00:41:43,440 Speaker 1: Tar everyone though to win by three goals. No, then 877 00:41:43,480 --> 00:41:45,440 Speaker 1: we need to win, oh, just to win five to. 878 00:41:45,480 --> 00:41:48,480 Speaker 3: One and they're tied on points, so winner advance is here, 879 00:41:49,000 --> 00:41:51,680 Speaker 3: that's true. So yeah, just to win. I mean, I 880 00:41:51,719 --> 00:41:54,800 Speaker 3: think five to one is live. Because you're right, Porto 881 00:41:54,960 --> 00:41:57,520 Speaker 3: has been a little overvalued, not as good as I 882 00:41:57,560 --> 00:41:59,960 Speaker 3: thought they'd be. Uh, they really could have had this run, 883 00:42:00,280 --> 00:42:02,640 Speaker 3: but Shack pulled off that big upset. So now it's 884 00:42:02,680 --> 00:42:06,799 Speaker 3: interesting really answerp barsa tough spot for BARTSA right. They 885 00:42:06,880 --> 00:42:09,359 Speaker 3: lose to Girona in a huge match today, they've got 886 00:42:09,560 --> 00:42:11,960 Speaker 3: a way to Valencia. They have a little bit of 887 00:42:11,960 --> 00:42:14,919 Speaker 3: a depth issue right now. No real interest in laying 888 00:42:14,960 --> 00:42:17,399 Speaker 3: them here. You know, if you go back, like match 889 00:42:17,480 --> 00:42:20,279 Speaker 3: day six, you can get some weird results. So like 890 00:42:20,880 --> 00:42:22,799 Speaker 3: some of these matchups, we're gonna get into a couple 891 00:42:22,880 --> 00:42:26,520 Speaker 3: later too. You could probably take a couple of small 892 00:42:26,680 --> 00:42:29,640 Speaker 3: small money line shots or like alternate shots like a 893 00:42:29,680 --> 00:42:32,839 Speaker 3: plus a half on antwerp or plus or money line 894 00:42:33,400 --> 00:42:35,960 Speaker 3: first half, money line, something crazy, just because you know, anytime, 895 00:42:36,520 --> 00:42:38,719 Speaker 3: you know, we're powerading these games. But like teams show 896 00:42:38,760 --> 00:42:40,279 Speaker 3: up and they go through the motions all the time, 897 00:42:40,680 --> 00:42:42,560 Speaker 3: you don't know that until the game starts it's gonna happen. 898 00:42:42,600 --> 00:42:43,719 Speaker 3: But if it does happen, all of a sudden, you 899 00:42:43,719 --> 00:42:47,080 Speaker 3: have a very live ticket. So you know, you know, 900 00:42:47,200 --> 00:42:51,319 Speaker 3: Antwerp fits this, Red Star fits this Young Boys. We'll 901 00:42:51,400 --> 00:42:53,719 Speaker 3: just quickly touch on those matches to group G is dead, 902 00:42:54,560 --> 00:42:57,520 Speaker 3: Red Stars out, Young Boys is out. The third place 903 00:42:57,560 --> 00:43:00,520 Speaker 3: has been decided. City won the group Leipzig is in 904 00:43:00,640 --> 00:43:03,560 Speaker 3: second city goes to Red Star. I would have been 905 00:43:03,600 --> 00:43:06,520 Speaker 3: excited and interested to back Red Star anyway in the spot, 906 00:43:06,800 --> 00:43:09,279 Speaker 3: but now that city like doesn't have Early Holland, and 907 00:43:10,040 --> 00:43:13,560 Speaker 3: I can't imagine they're gonna really like play anybody who 908 00:43:13,600 --> 00:43:16,280 Speaker 3: played this week with with another prem match this weekend, 909 00:43:16,320 --> 00:43:18,719 Speaker 3: and then you know, all of the matches they've had 910 00:43:18,800 --> 00:43:21,919 Speaker 3: pile up as well. They've looked really leggy and really 911 00:43:21,960 --> 00:43:24,840 Speaker 3: tired this this last couple of matches especially, they just 912 00:43:24,920 --> 00:43:27,120 Speaker 3: had like their worst performance ever under Guardiola. You could 913 00:43:27,160 --> 00:43:31,320 Speaker 3: argue on Thursday so or Wednesday. So I think the 914 00:43:31,440 --> 00:43:33,520 Speaker 3: question is like do we take the Red Star alts 915 00:43:33,600 --> 00:43:35,040 Speaker 3: one more time? You got them plus three and I 916 00:43:35,120 --> 00:43:37,400 Speaker 3: only get them plus one and a half. Yeah, I 917 00:43:37,480 --> 00:43:40,560 Speaker 3: know who Like the thing is like Red Star, this 918 00:43:40,680 --> 00:43:43,200 Speaker 3: is like the European champions coming to your place. They're 919 00:43:43,200 --> 00:43:43,520 Speaker 3: gonna be. 920 00:43:43,560 --> 00:43:46,120 Speaker 1: Up for you. I'll be up for it again. 921 00:43:46,200 --> 00:43:49,120 Speaker 3: Yeah, We're only gonna have to like put the team 922 00:43:49,160 --> 00:43:50,799 Speaker 3: on his back again for an hour. 923 00:43:50,920 --> 00:43:53,759 Speaker 1: Yeah, basically what we're gonna need to happen. And you know, 924 00:43:54,400 --> 00:43:57,279 Speaker 1: loot in Town obviously went ahead against the SETI today 925 00:43:57,560 --> 00:44:00,440 Speaker 1: early uh or not really excuse me. Early on in 926 00:44:00,520 --> 00:44:04,040 Speaker 1: the second half, Red started the exact same thing to them, 927 00:44:04,080 --> 00:44:06,200 Speaker 1: where they kind of just sat deep, they absorbed pressure. 928 00:44:06,640 --> 00:44:10,440 Speaker 1: They got one small transition attack and they keep and 929 00:44:10,520 --> 00:44:12,160 Speaker 1: they capitalize on it. And then of course you know 930 00:44:12,239 --> 00:44:14,080 Speaker 1: it was one way traffic after that second and the 931 00:44:14,160 --> 00:44:17,840 Speaker 1: second second half against City. You know, City ended up 932 00:44:17,840 --> 00:44:21,440 Speaker 1: putting up over four expecting goals. But again this Red 933 00:44:21,480 --> 00:44:24,800 Speaker 1: Star team, they do have some pace going forward in 934 00:44:24,840 --> 00:44:27,279 Speaker 1: transition that can give Cities some problems. And yeah, I mean, 935 00:44:27,360 --> 00:44:30,919 Speaker 1: what what team is City playing out there in this match? 936 00:44:31,440 --> 00:44:33,520 Speaker 1: You know, it's it's interesting. You know, you can go 937 00:44:33,600 --> 00:44:36,480 Speaker 1: one of two ways, Anthony. I think it could go 938 00:44:36,560 --> 00:44:39,000 Speaker 1: the way of like, hey, we have looked bad this 939 00:44:39,120 --> 00:44:41,640 Speaker 1: is a bad team. Let's get our confidence back, Like, 940 00:44:41,760 --> 00:44:44,000 Speaker 1: let's play some of our regulars, or even if we're 941 00:44:44,040 --> 00:44:46,120 Speaker 1: just playing sixty minutes, or keep our guys on the bench, 942 00:44:46,640 --> 00:44:48,440 Speaker 1: and let's get a win. Let's get a dominant win. 943 00:44:48,560 --> 00:44:50,640 Speaker 1: Let's get you know, our legs back moving forward. Because 944 00:44:50,640 --> 00:44:53,320 Speaker 1: they're gonna play Crystal Palace at home coming up this weekend. 945 00:44:53,680 --> 00:44:56,439 Speaker 1: That could be one scenario. The other scenario is Pep says, 946 00:44:56,440 --> 00:44:58,680 Speaker 1: all right, we're just taking a break, like everybody's off, 947 00:44:58,840 --> 00:45:00,800 Speaker 1: Like we're gonna bring the Utia twenty ones in and 948 00:45:01,080 --> 00:45:02,839 Speaker 1: let's hope that, you know, we'll just get a resolver here. 949 00:45:02,920 --> 00:45:06,800 Speaker 1: So I think it's very important what team City actually 950 00:45:06,840 --> 00:45:09,680 Speaker 1: puts out there. So I would wait to see what 951 00:45:09,800 --> 00:45:12,040 Speaker 1: the lineup looks like. And if you know, this is 952 00:45:12,080 --> 00:45:14,400 Speaker 1: one of those scenarios where you do have to be 953 00:45:15,000 --> 00:45:17,759 Speaker 1: kind of on it because the market moves very very 954 00:45:17,800 --> 00:45:21,200 Speaker 1: fast once the lineups come out. So for me, I'm 955 00:45:21,239 --> 00:45:23,640 Speaker 1: gonna wait and see what kind of lineup City plays, 956 00:45:23,680 --> 00:45:26,600 Speaker 1: and if they play a bad one, then we're gonna 957 00:45:26,600 --> 00:45:27,920 Speaker 1: be all over Red Star. If they play a good 958 00:45:27,920 --> 00:45:29,600 Speaker 1: one and they're just trying to get their confidence back, 959 00:45:30,400 --> 00:45:31,680 Speaker 1: I'm gonna pass. 960 00:45:32,000 --> 00:45:34,000 Speaker 3: So last time this happened was last year they played 961 00:45:34,000 --> 00:45:36,840 Speaker 3: Alvarez instead of Holland they still played Grealish and Marez. 962 00:45:36,920 --> 00:45:41,279 Speaker 3: They played Goundwan, Phil Foden, Cole Palmer. That was very 963 00:45:41,360 --> 00:45:43,000 Speaker 3: much Pep kind of getting a run out for like 964 00:45:43,080 --> 00:45:45,480 Speaker 3: the backup attackers that he does have at the time. 965 00:45:45,560 --> 00:45:48,239 Speaker 3: It was Palmer and Foden hadn't really playing every match 966 00:45:48,239 --> 00:45:51,400 Speaker 3: at that point. Goodu Wan was like the defensive midfielder 967 00:45:51,760 --> 00:45:54,560 Speaker 3: and then Laporte Diaz or take it in for Edison, 968 00:45:54,800 --> 00:45:57,680 Speaker 3: Sergio Gomez and Rico Lewis. They still smushed Seville at home, 969 00:45:57,719 --> 00:46:00,759 Speaker 3: beat him three to one, covered the spread, but you know, 970 00:46:02,160 --> 00:46:04,520 Speaker 3: eight to one is not a terrible bet first half 971 00:46:04,560 --> 00:46:05,960 Speaker 3: money line. Maybe they do that thing like they did 972 00:46:06,040 --> 00:46:08,319 Speaker 3: last time. Yeah, that last minute of the first half 973 00:46:08,400 --> 00:46:12,160 Speaker 3: goal and then win and then go away quietly. But yeah, 974 00:46:12,239 --> 00:46:14,400 Speaker 3: all right, moving on. I've got nothing on leips of 975 00:46:14,480 --> 00:46:17,680 Speaker 3: Young Boys again, same thing. It's like Leipsig and young boys. 976 00:46:18,040 --> 00:46:21,040 Speaker 3: If you want to take the shot. Sure, young boys 977 00:46:21,040 --> 00:46:23,279 Speaker 3: have looked really, really bad in this tournament. Two seven 978 00:46:23,320 --> 00:46:26,480 Speaker 3: to one on the road not great, not enough for me, 979 00:46:26,719 --> 00:46:31,040 Speaker 3: So let's move on. Last group group that has brought 980 00:46:31,080 --> 00:46:32,920 Speaker 3: me more sadness than any group in the history of 981 00:46:32,960 --> 00:46:36,040 Speaker 3: the Champions League. Pretty simple. Fine, Ord is clinched third, 982 00:46:36,080 --> 00:46:38,319 Speaker 3: they'll be in the Europa League, and yes we will 983 00:46:38,320 --> 00:46:41,080 Speaker 3: be betting them again. We the Nord, we live on. 984 00:46:41,600 --> 00:46:44,040 Speaker 3: We we're gonna be live in That competition should be 985 00:46:44,040 --> 00:46:47,160 Speaker 3: a fun one. They're at Celtic. I've got nothing on 986 00:46:47,200 --> 00:46:50,680 Speaker 3: that match. They're playing Wednesday at three, as are the 987 00:46:50,840 --> 00:46:55,719 Speaker 3: group leaders and advancers Atletico Madrid. Boo and Lazzio, no 988 00:46:55,840 --> 00:46:59,439 Speaker 3: comment and Letty wins your draws. They win the group. 989 00:47:00,120 --> 00:47:02,879 Speaker 3: If Letny loses, they will finish the second. Latzio will 990 00:47:02,880 --> 00:47:05,680 Speaker 3: be a group winner, which would be hilarious. I like 991 00:47:05,719 --> 00:47:07,440 Speaker 3: the under two and a half here. There's not a 992 00:47:07,520 --> 00:47:09,800 Speaker 3: ton into it for me. I really don't think this 993 00:47:09,920 --> 00:47:12,399 Speaker 3: Lotsio attack is any good against teams that can form 994 00:47:12,440 --> 00:47:14,800 Speaker 3: any semblance of a press. Lotsio is a team that 995 00:47:14,960 --> 00:47:16,480 Speaker 3: likes having time and space on the ball. They get 996 00:47:16,520 --> 00:47:18,719 Speaker 3: it at times in Syria and they're pretty good at 997 00:47:18,760 --> 00:47:21,080 Speaker 3: beating up on the bottom dwellers as a result, but 998 00:47:21,239 --> 00:47:23,400 Speaker 3: when they go up in competition, they have created like 999 00:47:23,520 --> 00:47:25,360 Speaker 3: nothing all year, and that was the case in the 1000 00:47:25,400 --> 00:47:28,920 Speaker 3: first match against at Letty, both matches against Fire and 1001 00:47:29,040 --> 00:47:31,160 Speaker 3: Ord until the first match when they were down three 1002 00:47:31,160 --> 00:47:34,000 Speaker 3: to three nil. Then they got some chances and the 1003 00:47:34,040 --> 00:47:36,680 Speaker 3: second match they created nothing except one break opportunity scored 1004 00:47:36,719 --> 00:47:38,799 Speaker 3: on it. I don't think this lots OFO team's any 1005 00:47:38,800 --> 00:47:41,160 Speaker 3: good against teams who who you know when they go 1006 00:47:41,280 --> 00:47:43,440 Speaker 3: up in class, they're on the road here. The reverse 1007 00:47:43,520 --> 00:47:46,360 Speaker 3: fixture was a pick them and it was two and 1008 00:47:46,440 --> 00:47:48,800 Speaker 3: a half and it was a dead nut under Providel 1009 00:47:48,880 --> 00:47:50,920 Speaker 3: scored with the last kick of the game as the 1010 00:47:50,960 --> 00:47:53,440 Speaker 3: goalie on a corner free kick. He came up and 1011 00:47:53,520 --> 00:47:56,399 Speaker 3: scored incredible to finish one to one. There was less 1012 00:47:56,400 --> 00:47:58,919 Speaker 3: than one point five x g. If you just flip 1013 00:47:59,000 --> 00:48:01,520 Speaker 3: home field gets you to about where this spread is. 1014 00:48:02,160 --> 00:48:03,759 Speaker 3: I agree with the number. I think I that he 1015 00:48:03,800 --> 00:48:06,160 Speaker 3: should be favored. I think they play this out in 1016 00:48:06,200 --> 00:48:08,319 Speaker 3: a very low event. Match ends one to one one 1017 00:48:08,600 --> 00:48:11,080 Speaker 3: and I think it goes under so one er two 1018 00:48:11,080 --> 00:48:12,520 Speaker 3: and a half just one ten. 1019 00:48:13,280 --> 00:48:15,440 Speaker 1: I will also be on that I only project two 1020 00:48:15,520 --> 00:48:18,279 Speaker 1: point to seven goals for this match, So yeah, I 1021 00:48:18,360 --> 00:48:21,799 Speaker 1: mean this is a Diego Simoni special. It's gonna sit 1022 00:48:21,880 --> 00:48:24,239 Speaker 1: deep and he's just gonna dare Loazio to break them down, 1023 00:48:24,320 --> 00:48:26,479 Speaker 1: and he's going to go back to his old tried 1024 00:48:26,480 --> 00:48:29,080 Speaker 1: and true probably probably four to four to two or 1025 00:48:29,200 --> 00:48:32,879 Speaker 1: some type of very very low defensive block. And again, 1026 00:48:32,960 --> 00:48:34,920 Speaker 1: like you mentioned, it's going to be another very low 1027 00:48:35,000 --> 00:48:37,440 Speaker 1: event type match. So yeah, I agree. I don't really 1028 00:48:37,480 --> 00:48:39,960 Speaker 1: see a scenario like you said, where this becomes high 1029 00:48:40,000 --> 00:48:43,840 Speaker 1: event unless last year somehow scores first and then you know, 1030 00:48:43,880 --> 00:48:46,319 Speaker 1: I fleoty class to go for it. But again, as 1031 00:48:46,360 --> 00:48:49,480 Speaker 1: long as Athletic called the equalizes, then it's sit back 1032 00:48:49,560 --> 00:48:51,879 Speaker 1: deep again. So I agree that they'll be on under 1033 00:48:51,920 --> 00:48:52,719 Speaker 1: two and a half as well. 1034 00:48:53,320 --> 00:48:56,480 Speaker 3: All Right, that will do it for the final Champions 1035 00:48:56,560 --> 00:48:58,840 Speaker 3: League episode of the group stage. Don't worry, we'll be 1036 00:48:58,960 --> 00:49:02,680 Speaker 3: back in February for the knockout rounds. I think the 1037 00:49:02,800 --> 00:49:05,160 Speaker 3: draw is coming up at the end of the month, 1038 00:49:05,239 --> 00:49:07,799 Speaker 3: so we're gonna get draws here as well. Then we're 1039 00:49:07,800 --> 00:49:09,800 Speaker 3: gonna dive into the matchups. We'll maybe we'll touch on 1040 00:49:09,920 --> 00:49:12,600 Speaker 3: them on a Premier League POD or EFL pod when 1041 00:49:12,640 --> 00:49:14,840 Speaker 3: we get to that point, because I do you know, 1042 00:49:14,880 --> 00:49:17,160 Speaker 3: we should get some initial takes out there. Probably we'll 1043 00:49:17,200 --> 00:49:19,600 Speaker 3: have a better two off the rip, but it's been 1044 00:49:19,640 --> 00:49:21,759 Speaker 3: a fun Champions League. Hopefully we get a fun final 1045 00:49:21,840 --> 00:49:23,760 Speaker 3: match day. We can get like one or two moments 1046 00:49:23,800 --> 00:49:27,000 Speaker 3: of chaos where both matches are simultaneously going. Group A 1047 00:49:27,239 --> 00:49:29,560 Speaker 3: and the Group of Death maybe provide some chaos, but 1048 00:49:29,640 --> 00:49:31,840 Speaker 3: that will do it. Thanks to BJ for joining me. 1049 00:49:31,960 --> 00:49:35,320 Speaker 3: We'll be back on Thursday to preview the entire European slate, 1050 00:49:35,840 --> 00:49:38,719 Speaker 3: mostly the Premier League. Got some fun spots coming up, 1051 00:49:38,800 --> 00:49:41,880 Speaker 3: Newcastle at home, Villa going on the road now, so 1052 00:49:42,040 --> 00:49:44,680 Speaker 3: it should be a fun weekend slate. But first, yes, 1053 00:49:44,840 --> 00:49:46,560 Speaker 3: enjoy the Champions League. We don't get too many of 1054 00:49:46,560 --> 00:49:49,040 Speaker 3: these midweek slates every year. Got a bunch coming up 1055 00:49:49,680 --> 00:50:01,759 Speaker 3: and thanks for listening. Action Network reminds you please gambler responsibly. 1056 00:50:02,200 --> 00:50:05,000 Speaker 3: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem, 1057 00:50:05,320 --> 00:50:08,320 Speaker 3: help is available twenty four seven at one eight hundred 1058 00:50:08,360 --> 00:50:08,760 Speaker 3: Gambler