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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast Action.

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Speaker 2: All right, here we go.

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Speaker 3: Throwing out so spect we're saying it's a cash touchdown.

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Speaker 2: That's all we see.

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Speaker 3: Most gamble is when they go to gamble, they go

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Speaker 3: to win.

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Speaker 2: That's incredible.

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Speaker 3: Big bank, small banks. I like to make money.

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Speaker 2: All right, this is the ultimate combining and you want

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Speaker 2: to and we are underway.

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Speaker 3: What's up, everybody? Welcome to the Action Network Podcast presented

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Speaker 3: by DraftKings. I am your host, Evan Abrams, and I

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Speaker 3: am joined by the one, the only, the man himself,

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Speaker 3: Brandon Anderson BA for our NFL recap show. Uh. We

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Speaker 3: will discuss everything we saw today. We'll even go back

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Speaker 3: and talk some Thursday, some Saturday, but very briefly in

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Speaker 3: you know, the sense of playoff percentages, what we should

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Speaker 3: be looking forward to over the last two weeks of

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Speaker 3: the regular season. We will also talk about Monday Night football,

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Speaker 3: give out some picks, plus we will get Brandan's hot

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Speaker 3: reed picks, all sorts of different fun bonus stuff in

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Speaker 3: this show. I'll tell you right off the bat right now,

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Speaker 3: we are not going to do a best bets episode

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Speaker 3: this coming week on Thursday with the holiday, so we're

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Speaker 3: going to give you as much in this episode as possible.

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Speaker 3: I'm just going to start with a stat and usually

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Speaker 3: I'm looking a little backwards when it comes to this stat,

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Speaker 3: but today I kind of want to look forwards, because

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Speaker 3: I feel like this whole show is a little looking forwards.

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Speaker 3: And that's kind of the spirit of what we're doing

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Speaker 3: here with just two weeks ago in the regular season.

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Speaker 3: So something that here at the Action Eric I've wrote

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Speaker 3: about for at least five six years now is trying

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Speaker 3: to fade teams who need to win this time of

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Speaker 3: year against teams who were eliminated. So historically has been

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Speaker 3: profitable to do that at last two weeks of regular season.

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Speaker 3: So since nineteen ninety, eliminated teams playing teams that need

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Speaker 3: to win to get into the playoffs of the final

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Speaker 3: two weeks of the regular season are one oh eight,

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Speaker 3: sixty nine and four sixty one percent. I just did

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Speaker 3: some quick math. I believe those three matches would be

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Speaker 3: Minnesota against the Lions, the Browns against the Steelers, and

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Speaker 3: the Dolphins against the Bucks. In terms of teams that

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Speaker 3: need to win to try to get in. The other

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Speaker 3: angle I will give you is and this one's actually

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Speaker 3: pretty crazy, Brandon, because This one's strictly from bet Labs,

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Speaker 3: and I have this system stave so system saved. So

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Speaker 3: teams with a win percentage between forty and sixty percent

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Speaker 3: in week sixteen or later, basically fighting their butt off

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Speaker 3: to get into the playoffs are an incredible twenty seven,

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Speaker 3: seventy seven and four against the spread twenty six percent

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Speaker 3: against teams with an eight to twenty five percent worst

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Speaker 3: win percentage. So basically, those teams, like the other stat

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Speaker 3: I just gave you need to win at this time

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Speaker 3: of year, they're failing to cover by four point one

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Speaker 3: points per game. This is dating back to two thousand

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Speaker 3: and seven. At this current moment, I believe that team

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Speaker 3: is only Dallas, which eliminated as well, but fits this system.

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Speaker 3: So I will have all this stuff in my primer.

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Speaker 3: It'll be live hopefully two o'clock, one o'clock whatever it

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Speaker 3: is on Tuesday, so tune in for that. But I'll

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Speaker 3: leave it to you, Brandon, Like, what from before we

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Speaker 3: get into Sunday night football? What else do you think

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Speaker 3: about based off of everything you saw today, yesterday and Thursday.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, those stats that you gave, I've got some of

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Speaker 4: those same trends and I was looking at these last

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Speaker 4: couple of weeks especially, I don't know, like normally, it's

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Speaker 4: tough now because we just switched to the eighteen games.

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Speaker 4: So I have those trends at week sixteen forward. I

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Speaker 4: don't know yet if they really count for week sixteen,

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Speaker 4: which is now irrelevant because we're wrapping that up for

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Speaker 4: the show obviously, But yeah, similar trends, and it's interesting.

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Speaker 4: It's kind of a double whammy, I think because the

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Speaker 4: teams that are supposed to win, the teams that need

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Speaker 4: to win, they're getting That's what's happening. They're adding in

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Speaker 4: extra points that they're forcing us as betters to have

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Speaker 4: to pay the tax because we're thinking, well, they're not

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Speaker 4: gonna blow this one. They gotta win that one. But

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Speaker 4: here's the problem. Not only is that messing the lineup

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Speaker 4: and adding tax on, but psychologically you're the team that

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Speaker 4: can't blow this. Now you have everything to lose. And

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Speaker 4: you mentioned those teams. You know, it's like the Browns

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Speaker 4: against the Steelers. We'll see if that one even ends

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Speaker 4: up mattering for them, but you have now become the

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Speaker 4: Brown super Bowl. The team that has nothing to play

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Speaker 4: for has something to play for.

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Speaker 2: And it's you.

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Speaker 4: It's your scalp that they can knock out of the

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Speaker 4: playoffs if they can. So it's like maybe a triple wham.

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Speaker 4: You're adding incentive to the bad team, you are adding

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Speaker 4: pressure to the good team, and then you're taxing the

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Speaker 4: good team on.

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Speaker 2: Top of that.

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Speaker 4: So it's tough because you look at a team like

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Speaker 4: Detroit in Minnesota, you're like, man, Detroit has to win

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Speaker 4: out now and get help or there cooked they have

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Speaker 4: to do this.

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Speaker 2: Bet them at any what number?

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Speaker 4: Oh man, that's a little high on Christmas, but you

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Speaker 4: gotta take them, Like I know, that's the feeling you

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Speaker 4: have in your gut, but that is not what the

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Speaker 4: trends tell us. So it's gonna be tricky as we

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Speaker 4: look at some of these, and we will. I have

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Speaker 4: notes throughout here that like, as always, we're we're looking

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Speaker 4: like you said, but especially now, forward is very soon.

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Speaker 4: So we will talk throughout on as best as I

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Speaker 4: can tell. And I'm sure you have notes too, like

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Speaker 4: what's the playoff scenario? Where's this team at? Are they

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Speaker 4: in the one seed, are they in the division? Are

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Speaker 4: they alive?

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Speaker 2: What do they have to do? So to me, all

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Speaker 2: of those things incentives.

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Speaker 4: That matters as much as anything else when you're capping

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Speaker 4: games and futures at this point going forward, because it's

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Speaker 4: all adding in and it's is it being baked into

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Speaker 4: the line already and now you're paying too much for it?

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Speaker 4: And are there places where they can't quite price it in?

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Speaker 4: But if X happens, why changes later in the day

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Speaker 4: or for week eighteen?

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Speaker 2: And if I like.

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Speaker 4: This angle week seventeen, is there a different look ahead

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Speaker 4: spot to play accordingly? So you kind of have to

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Speaker 4: get creative and kind of chain together some domino reactions.

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Speaker 4: And we can't do all those yet tonight because we're

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Speaker 4: not even wrapped up with week sixteen, but hopefully some

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Speaker 4: of the information can kind of set us up to

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Speaker 4: be thinking that direction already, and your stats, I think

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Speaker 4: got the top is a great place to start.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, that's why I shrugged a little bit, because some

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Speaker 3: of this stuff can change, and I just did that

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Speaker 3: math really quickly so it'll all be right. In the primer,

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Speaker 3: I will say this, Lions were minus two and a

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Speaker 3: half on the look ahead. They went to three and

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Speaker 3: a half, they went to four and a half, they

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Speaker 3: went to five and a half. Now at six kind

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Speaker 3: of says exactly what we're talking about, all right, Sunday

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Speaker 3: Night football. New England wins, the game comes back twenty

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Speaker 3: eight twenty four covers plus three and a half on

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Speaker 3: the road, total over forty seven and a half. I

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Speaker 3: guess I'll only say this, the game started exactly how

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Speaker 3: you wanted to start for Baltimore, a great first drive,

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Speaker 3: a Henry first touchdown, and then from then it seemed

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Speaker 3: like everything just kind of fell apart, and not only

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Speaker 3: with the Henry fumble I guess a possession or two later,

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Speaker 3: but with the injury to Lamar, and then you had

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Speaker 3: injuries all over the field. I mean, Trevion Henderson got hurt.

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Speaker 3: I believe Pop Douglas gets hurt in the game, Like

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Speaker 3: this game was a walking dead. It turned it out

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Speaker 3: to be, and obviously New England comes out on top.

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Speaker 3: But even then, it's still ten ten at the half,

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Speaker 3: and it's almost anybody's game. The two stats that did

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Speaker 3: continue from the first half. Ravens still now scored ten

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Speaker 3: points in the first half first half team totals thirteen

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Speaker 3: and a half, so they are now two and thirteen

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Speaker 3: first half team total over this year, which seems almost impossible,

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Speaker 3: and what's even more impossible. In nine home games, they

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Speaker 3: are zero to nine first half team total over so

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Speaker 3: not starting fast one time at home all year and

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Speaker 3: the New England twelve and three first half ats tied.

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Speaker 3: Obviously an underdog in this game, I mean, Brandon, what

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Speaker 3: else from the start of this game and kind of

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Speaker 3: how it progressed? Can you take from this one?

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Speaker 2: Yeah?

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Speaker 4: So we had the stat when we talked to this

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Speaker 4: game going in Mike Rabel as a three or three

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Speaker 4: point underdog or more now twenty three and twenty straight

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Speaker 4: up in his career, just a crazy number to be.

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Speaker 4: You're not supposed to be above five hundred straight up

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Speaker 4: as a clear underdog as.

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Speaker 2: He was here.

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Speaker 4: And this was a very Mike Rabel game, Like we

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Speaker 4: talk about, we're gonna get to a very Mike Tomlin game.

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Speaker 4: Also this we've seen this Rabel game. We saw the comeback,

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Speaker 4: we saw the greediness of this team. We saw, you know,

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Speaker 4: down near the end, the Patriots take the lead, Ravens

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Speaker 4: get the ball back, and as the Ravens are kind

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Speaker 4: of like running sideways holding the ball out, trying to

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Speaker 4: do something fun, somebody comes from behind. I think Chase

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Speaker 4: on and knocks the ball out and that's basically the

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Speaker 4: game after that. So that that's just such a Mike

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Speaker 4: Rabel team play to make. And I thought the announcer

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Speaker 4: is we're capturing it well too, that like this is

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Speaker 4: a win, that that that team is going to love.

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Speaker 4: This is who they think they are and what they're

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Speaker 4: trying to be. Yeah, I had noted about Trevian Henderson leaving,

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Speaker 4: among other names in the comments. I see Paul Rahani

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Speaker 4: hopeful I'm saying that right talks about offensive rookie of

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Speaker 4: the year. I do think it is very open now.

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Speaker 4: Henderson suddenly took the big lead last week. I don't

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Speaker 4: know what his injury is, but it's a head injury.

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Speaker 4: We don't know how bad it will be. Is it

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Speaker 4: Tam McMillan now, or like Paul suggesting, is it a

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Speaker 4: long shot?

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Speaker 1: R J.

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Speaker 4: Harvey had another pretty good game today and has a

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Speaker 4: lot of touchdowns genty out of the blue, suddenly two

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Speaker 4: long touchdowns today, Maybe he's in the lead. Like it's

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Speaker 4: definitely a race that we've got to keep an eye on,

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Speaker 4: and there hasn't been any standout.

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Speaker 2: Is it cam Ward suddenly on a winning streak? Today

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Speaker 2: right now? Is it Tyler Shuck.

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Speaker 4: He's on a three game winning streak right now, Like

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Speaker 4: could he be the guy that comes through? So I

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Speaker 4: think we definitely have to look at that market see if.

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Speaker 2: You can find a long shot that you like.

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Speaker 4: Obviously, coming out of this game tonight, the big story

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Speaker 4: has to be Lamar Jackson and what happens with him

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Speaker 4: and with the Ravens going full I believe now Baltimore

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Speaker 4: is in the same spot as Detroit when we get

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Speaker 4: to them. Got to win both games, and you need

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Speaker 4: the Steelers to lose both games. So that means the

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Speaker 4: Ravens Saturday night in Green Bay have to win a

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Speaker 4: game where we don't even know if Lamar Jackson will

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Speaker 4: be ready to go by then, and well we don't

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Speaker 4: know if Jordan Love will be ready to go either,

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Speaker 4: So we'll see you with that one. But if they

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Speaker 4: lose that game, the Steelers can play, can beat the

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Speaker 4: Browns on Sunday, clinch the division, and that Steelers Ravens

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Speaker 4: Week EIGHTEAM we've been waiting for won't even matter like

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Speaker 4: it's off. It's Steelers will rest because they'll just be

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Speaker 4: waiting for the playoffs at that point. So Baltimore they need.

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Speaker 4: Even if Baltimore wins, they now I believe need need

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Speaker 4: the Browns to win just to keep that Week eighteen

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Speaker 4: game alive for them. So that's not the spot you

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Speaker 4: want to be to lose control of your destiny. And

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Speaker 4: I'm gonna throw back to you with the question of

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Speaker 4: what does this all mean for the MVP race we keep.

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Speaker 2: Talking about a week after a week I have.

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Speaker 4: Of course, I'm very invested in it because we've got

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Speaker 4: the Stafford fifty one before the season. I'm watching an

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Speaker 4: early fourth quarter. Ravens are up by two touchdowns, well

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Speaker 4: two scores at least. We're seeing like a plus five

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Speaker 4: hundred Drake may last. I looked back down to like

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Speaker 4: plus two hundred, and I thought, personally, this was a

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Speaker 4: team win.

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Speaker 2: For the Patriots. Drake was good, but it was a

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Speaker 2: team win.

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Speaker 4: The defense made a couple of plays, as pass catchers

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Speaker 4: made plays.

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Speaker 2: The running backs were good. Team win.

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Speaker 4: Stafford was awesome on Thursday night, and we'll get there.

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Speaker 2: He had a huge stat line.

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Speaker 4: He put up big numbers on a great, great Seahawks defense.

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Speaker 2: I thought that was a teammates loss.

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Speaker 4: I thought Stafford was the MVP, but his teammates lost

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Speaker 4: the game, and the referees and all the weird we'll

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Speaker 4: get to it, but.

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Speaker 2: It would be tragic to me if these two results

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Speaker 2: decide the MVP race. Well, Drake's team one, Stafford's team loss,

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Speaker 2: So that's how it's gotta go. That's so oversimplified from

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Speaker 2: what we've seen. But both guys I thought were really good.

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Speaker 2: What do you think where are we at on the

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Speaker 2: MVP race?

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Speaker 1: To you?

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Speaker 3: I see like Stafford minus two hundred Drake plus one

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Speaker 3: seventy five. So obviously he's very much still in the balance.

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Speaker 3: I mean, Drake may through for like three hundred and

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Speaker 3: eighty yards tonight, his first three hundred yard game. He looked.

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Speaker 3: He honestly played pretty well, especially second half, making the

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Speaker 3: comeback again. I think the primetime thing helps when everyone

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Speaker 3: watches your game and you have this type of comeback

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Speaker 3: and you do play well, you have a great deep

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Speaker 3: ball touchdown, like all sorts of things, you know, kind

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Speaker 3: of making his case for him at this point, and

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Speaker 3: as well. I you know, Rams are on Monday Night

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Speaker 3: football next week against the Falcons inside of a dome

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Speaker 3: in Atlanta. They're going to have another opportunity. So I

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Speaker 3: think there's still more to be told here, but the

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Speaker 3: one thing you do have to know is Josh is

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Speaker 3: now twenty five to one, So this is a two

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Speaker 3: horse race. It's pretty much over in terms of that,

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Speaker 3: it's either Drake or Stafford at this point to be

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Speaker 3: shocking to kind of see anything else. And then to

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Speaker 3: answer your other question, Ted McMillan is now minus three

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Speaker 3: hundred to win Offensive Rookie of the Year. So if

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Speaker 3: you think it's anyone else, you're gonna have some value

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Speaker 3: shuck at like four point fifty. Other than that, it

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Speaker 3: is a long long shot. So that's where the markets sit.

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Speaker 3: I'll give you one stat here, and I tweeted this out,

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Speaker 3: and this kind of is just what we see from

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Speaker 3: Baltimore since twenty twenty. This is the Ravens tenth home

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Speaker 3: loss when leading by over one possession nine plus points.

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Speaker 3: No other team has more than six such losses in

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Speaker 3: that span. Now, obviously you have to actually be up

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Speaker 3: by that much to lose the game, which is a

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Speaker 3: very Ravens thing. So that's why most teams don't have

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Speaker 3: that type of stat. But nonetheless, I think everyone's going

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Speaker 3: to point to the fact that you know, Derrek Henry

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Speaker 3: last touched the ball in this game when he scored

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Speaker 3: the touchdown to go up eleven points and then basically

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Speaker 3: didn't play again. So either he was gassed and that's

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Speaker 3: a problem, or the issue is also where the heck

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Speaker 3: was Derrick Henry from a coach's decision. So to me,

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Speaker 3: that's kind of the storyline of the game as we

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Speaker 3: head into Monday night football.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, well, hopefully all that extra time Derrick Henry was

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Speaker 4: not on the field and got a little saved up

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Speaker 4: something for Saturday night because they might need an extra

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Speaker 4: dose of Derrick Henry in that one. And you know,

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Speaker 4: the Packers certainly can be run on that. That was

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Speaker 4: the whole story into the season was the Packers are

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Speaker 4: trading away their run defense a little bit to go

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Speaker 4: after Micah Parsons. Well now they don't have either one.

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Speaker 4: So is that does that come full circle? You have

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Speaker 4: kind of both teams in a little bit of a

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Speaker 4: desperate position in that one.

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Speaker 2: And yeah, I must.

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Speaker 4: Say I would have been real excited with my Rasheen

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Speaker 4: Ali bets to have no Derrick Henry for so long,

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Speaker 4: but I wasn't Rasheen Ali either. It got one catch

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Speaker 4: and I barely been some on the field, so we're

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Speaker 4: gonna miss on that one.

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Speaker 2: Not the right game script. We wanted Ravens to be behind.

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Speaker 4: They're a much better front running team, and though they lost,

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Speaker 4: they were the front runner most of the night. So

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Speaker 4: that to me is like, obviously the Ravens are in danger.

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Speaker 4: But that again should tell us like even the script

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Speaker 4: went Baltimore's direction other than obviously you lose your quarterback,

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Speaker 4: that's not your direction.

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Speaker 2: But if you have to play with Tyler.

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Speaker 4: Huntley running the ball, playing with the lead, that's the

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Speaker 4: way you want to play with him. And it still

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Speaker 4: couldn't close it out, and they continue to not close

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Speaker 4: out these games, and yeah, the Ravens fans are gonna

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Speaker 4: be asking a lot of questions. There was a lot

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Speaker 4: of talk earlier in the year about John Harbaugh and

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Speaker 4: the play callers and everything like that. Then they got

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Speaker 4: a bunch of wins and it settled down. If this

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Speaker 4: is kind of we go out with the spotter at

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Speaker 4: the end of the season here and missed the playoffs,

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Speaker 4: I think there's gonna be a lot of offseason questions

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Speaker 4: for Baltimore.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, there was some roughing the passer calls, and pass

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Speaker 3: interference calls. The refs were a little questionable in this one,

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Speaker 3: but let's move on to another game where the refs

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Speaker 3: were also a little bit questionable, maybe a lot questionable.

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Speaker 3: Steelers Lions. Steelers end up winning the game twenty nine

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Speaker 3: to twenty four cover and win as plus seven and

339
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Speaker 3: a half point dogs on the road total over fifty

340
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Speaker 3: two and a half. I mean, to me, the Lions

341
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Speaker 3: offense just feel it felt off. There was misques timing

342
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Speaker 3: the entire game, and it was probably more towards Pittsburgh's defense.

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Speaker 3: That was very disruptive. But Detroit didn't run the ball

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Speaker 3: or couldn't all game. Twelve garys for fifteen yards, which

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Speaker 3: is their lowest rushing total since twenty sixteen. Absolutely kind

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Speaker 3: of incredible how the game went progressed when you think

347
00:16:28,920 --> 00:16:32,440
Speaker 3: about Pittsburgh had more penalties for more yards, more turnovers,

348
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Speaker 3: went zero to three in the red zone, scored three

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Speaker 3: points in the first four drives, and ends up winning

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Speaker 3: the game obviously on the goal line. A little craziness

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Speaker 3: at the end there, But what do you take from

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Speaker 3: Pittsburgh Detroit?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, look, Detroit obviously is on the ropes at this point,

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Speaker 4: Like we know they're in a similar probably just said

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Speaker 4: Detroy has to win out and Green bayle is out.

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Speaker 2: That's it. That's the only way the Lions get in.

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Speaker 2: So we know that, we know they're on the ropes.

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Speaker 4: If we didn't know that, I would still come in

359
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Speaker 4: swinging like man, this is the sign that the Lions

360
00:17:01,760 --> 00:17:04,520
Speaker 4: season is not meant to be. This game because they

361
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Speaker 4: got punked by the Steelers, and they got out physicaled

362
00:17:07,720 --> 00:17:11,760
Speaker 4: and they get outrun by the Steelers. The whole Detroit identity,

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Speaker 4: the whole Dan Campbell thing is we're gonna beat you up,

364
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Speaker 4: we're gonna be physical, we're gonna bite kneecaps, and we're

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Speaker 4: gonna win that way. And they lost that way today.

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Speaker 4: They lost in the trenches. They ran all game, the

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Speaker 4: Lions twelve times for fifteen yards, and that includes a

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Speaker 4: seventeen yard run, so they ran eleven times for negative yardage.

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Speaker 2: They gave up.

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Speaker 4: Jared Goff threw fifty four times in this game. That

371
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Speaker 4: is not what you want to do as the Lions.

372
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Speaker 4: Whatever the opponent does, and certainly with Pittsburgh's pass rushes

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Speaker 4: coming after you, and that's.

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Speaker 2: Okay either because t J.

375
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Speaker 4: Watt and Nick herbig are out in this game, and

376
00:17:53,960 --> 00:17:57,880
Speaker 4: they still can't block the Steelers pass rushers. They gave

377
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Speaker 4: up on the run game and they could not tackle.

378
00:18:01,600 --> 00:18:05,200
Speaker 4: They could not stop the run. Jalen Warren had a

379
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Speaker 4: monster game. We're handing off to John hus Smith on

380
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Speaker 4: sweeps for like consecutive first downs down the stretch. We're

381
00:18:11,840 --> 00:18:15,399
Speaker 4: throwing screens to Darnell Washington who just puts his arm

382
00:18:15,480 --> 00:18:18,080
Speaker 4: heisman out and just like runs right through guys for

383
00:18:18,119 --> 00:18:22,240
Speaker 4: an easy first down. That that was Pittsburgh looking Detroit

384
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Speaker 4: in the eye and saying, you can't handle the fight.

385
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Speaker 4: We're bringing the fight to you, and you cannot handle

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Speaker 4: us right now. And look, Detroit almost came all the

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Speaker 4: way back around. And we even talk about the ending.

388
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Speaker 4: The ending is wild. If you somehow missed it, I'm

389
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Speaker 4: sure you must know by now. So the Lions, the

390
00:18:39,800 --> 00:18:42,240
Speaker 4: Pittsburgh misses a field goal to go up eight, so

391
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Speaker 4: they're only up five and we're all watching. I'm like, okay,

392
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Speaker 4: this is cook. Detroit's gonna get the win. The Lions

393
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Speaker 4: are good, They're gonna go down. All they need is

394
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Speaker 4: a touchdown theyn you need extra point or anything. They

395
00:18:53,480 --> 00:18:56,280
Speaker 4: get a touchdown, but the rest take it off offensive

396
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Speaker 4: pass interference. We got the old Like the screenplay, seemed

397
00:19:00,680 --> 00:19:02,680
Speaker 4: like the right call, so we get down a fourth

398
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Speaker 4: down basically last play honestly would have been an incredible play.

399
00:19:07,880 --> 00:19:10,360
Speaker 4: They pass it to a Monro who gets stuffed at

400
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Speaker 4: the one yard line but doesn't go down, and as

401
00:19:13,160 --> 00:19:17,280
Speaker 4: he's falling laterals the ball to Jared Goff, who takes

402
00:19:17,320 --> 00:19:20,479
Speaker 4: like two steps and leaps diving into the end zone.

403
00:19:20,960 --> 00:19:26,320
Speaker 4: That's like a Savior season incredible play. The problem is

404
00:19:26,600 --> 00:19:29,600
Speaker 4: Amon Rah committed offensive pass interference, which again I think

405
00:19:29,720 --> 00:19:31,960
Speaker 4: was the right call, even though the referees took seven

406
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Speaker 4: years to come out and say it. The problem is

407
00:19:35,240 --> 00:19:37,800
Speaker 4: if he just goes down, then they have to accept

408
00:19:37,800 --> 00:19:39,520
Speaker 4: the penalty and the lines at least get one more

409
00:19:39,560 --> 00:19:42,320
Speaker 4: play because there's like two seconds left. But because he latered,

410
00:19:42,600 --> 00:19:45,280
Speaker 4: Jared Goff scores runs the time off, and now there's

411
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Speaker 4: an offensive penalty with no time on the clock.

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Speaker 2: That's it. The game is over.

413
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Speaker 4: So ironically, this amazing play by Amana and Goff ends

414
00:19:54,200 --> 00:19:57,320
Speaker 4: up costing them at least one more play chance to

415
00:19:57,359 --> 00:20:00,919
Speaker 4: be able to do it. But just yeah, this was

416
00:20:00,960 --> 00:20:03,840
Speaker 4: a Mike Tomlin raw raw type game. I said before

417
00:20:03,880 --> 00:20:06,760
Speaker 4: that it was not that spot, and then everything just

418
00:20:06,800 --> 00:20:09,760
Speaker 4: felt that way, like we got a Kenneth Gagwell basically

419
00:20:09,760 --> 00:20:12,640
Speaker 4: hail Mary in the halftime where they threw it down

420
00:20:12,720 --> 00:20:15,720
Speaker 4: the field and it bounces off the defender and he

421
00:20:15,840 --> 00:20:19,000
Speaker 4: tracks it lands on him when he sticks his arm out,

422
00:20:19,240 --> 00:20:20,920
Speaker 4: and then nobody touches him and he gets up and

423
00:20:21,000 --> 00:20:23,840
Speaker 4: runs in like, I guess that's the Aaron Rodgers hail Mary.

424
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Speaker 2: Now we can't quite get it.

425
00:20:24,920 --> 00:20:26,679
Speaker 4: To the end zone anymore at his age, so we

426
00:20:26,760 --> 00:20:29,280
Speaker 4: got to have a little extra mystery to it. We

427
00:20:29,400 --> 00:20:33,400
Speaker 4: got Pittsburgh safety Jared Goff just taking a safety back there.

428
00:20:33,880 --> 00:20:35,760
Speaker 2: Fifty four dropbacks.

429
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Speaker 4: Not the way that you want to go, I guess,

430
00:20:37,040 --> 00:20:38,960
Speaker 4: or that they were dropbacks that passes.

431
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Speaker 2: So just a mess.

432
00:20:41,080 --> 00:20:45,119
Speaker 4: Steelers four hundred eighty one yards in this game, one

433
00:20:45,200 --> 00:20:48,320
Speaker 4: hundred and twenty more than the Lions, almost seven yards

434
00:20:48,320 --> 00:20:53,399
Speaker 4: of play. That's inexcusable for the Lions. Your defense got

435
00:20:53,480 --> 00:20:57,240
Speaker 4: crushed by Aaron Rodgers and the Steelers, who, by the way,

436
00:20:57,800 --> 00:21:00,480
Speaker 4: probably should not have had DK Metcalf on the field.

437
00:21:00,720 --> 00:21:03,320
Speaker 4: You're out here punching dudes in the stands mid game.

438
00:21:03,760 --> 00:21:06,200
Speaker 4: We'll see if he gets to play again like this

439
00:21:06,280 --> 00:21:08,199
Speaker 4: season at all. I don't know what you do with that,

440
00:21:08,400 --> 00:21:12,320
Speaker 4: but this to me was Detroit. They were the team

441
00:21:12,359 --> 00:21:15,840
Speaker 4: getting punched. That they got punched in the face by

442
00:21:15,920 --> 00:21:19,040
Speaker 4: the entirety of the team, not just Dekam Metcalf, and

443
00:21:19,119 --> 00:21:22,200
Speaker 4: I think this is probably the end fitting that they

444
00:21:22,880 --> 00:21:25,920
Speaker 4: go fourth down and out on the opening drive, fourth.

445
00:21:25,720 --> 00:21:26,840
Speaker 2: Down and out down the game.

446
00:21:27,160 --> 00:21:28,879
Speaker 4: That's kind of been the story of the Lions season,

447
00:21:28,920 --> 00:21:31,160
Speaker 4: has failed fourth downs and not being.

448
00:21:30,920 --> 00:21:33,119
Speaker 2: Who they are anymore. And to me, that was the

449
00:21:33,119 --> 00:21:34,840
Speaker 2: biggest takeaway maybe of all Sunday.

450
00:21:35,920 --> 00:21:38,760
Speaker 3: Yeah, their offense let them down, I guess early in

451
00:21:38,800 --> 00:21:40,639
Speaker 3: the game, kind of had a better second half, but

452
00:21:40,680 --> 00:21:44,080
Speaker 3: it's the defense to me. I mean, listen, they've lost

453
00:21:44,160 --> 00:21:45,920
Speaker 3: two straight in the same season for the first time

454
00:21:45,960 --> 00:21:48,440
Speaker 3: since twenty twenty two when they lost five straight, but

455
00:21:49,040 --> 00:21:52,240
Speaker 3: probably not a coincidence. Detroit's defense have allowed now twenty

456
00:21:52,280 --> 00:21:54,640
Speaker 3: seven plus and five straight, also the first time since

457
00:21:54,640 --> 00:21:57,440
Speaker 3: twenty twenty two they've done that. So to me, all

458
00:21:57,480 --> 00:21:59,600
Speaker 3: the injuries are just coming back to them and then

459
00:21:59,600 --> 00:22:01,879
Speaker 3: looking at Pittsburgh kind of just a fun look ahead.

460
00:22:02,119 --> 00:22:05,199
Speaker 3: So Pittsburgh is at Cleveland next week. That line currently

461
00:22:05,240 --> 00:22:07,480
Speaker 3: sitting at minus four and a half for the Steelers

462
00:22:07,480 --> 00:22:10,360
Speaker 3: with a total of thirty four and a half, so

463
00:22:10,880 --> 00:22:13,240
Speaker 3: one of the lower totals I believe we've seen this year.

464
00:22:13,280 --> 00:22:15,399
Speaker 3: I'll have some stuff on that as well, but that

465
00:22:15,560 --> 00:22:17,720
Speaker 3: is going to be some And maybe it's you know,

466
00:22:17,920 --> 00:22:19,840
Speaker 3: thinking about the fact there's no DKA in the game,

467
00:22:19,840 --> 00:22:22,320
Speaker 3: because that's gone down about a point or two in

468
00:22:22,359 --> 00:22:23,480
Speaker 3: the last hour, so.

469
00:22:24,800 --> 00:22:25,920
Speaker 2: Actually it may not matter.

470
00:22:25,960 --> 00:22:28,639
Speaker 4: Also, if the Ravens also a Saturday night, then the

471
00:22:28,680 --> 00:22:31,200
Speaker 4: Steelers might sit guys and so that could play into

472
00:22:31,240 --> 00:22:31,800
Speaker 4: it as well.

473
00:22:32,480 --> 00:22:36,120
Speaker 3: That is fair, all right, let's keep rolling along here.

474
00:22:37,080 --> 00:22:41,239
Speaker 3: Jaguars Broncos. So Jacksonville wins the game thirty four to

475
00:22:41,240 --> 00:22:44,200
Speaker 3: twenty as three and a half point row Dogs total

476
00:22:44,320 --> 00:22:47,000
Speaker 3: over forty six and a half. This was just a

477
00:22:47,280 --> 00:22:52,400
Speaker 3: Jacksonville efficient domination and just Denver miscues, which doesn't always

478
00:22:52,400 --> 00:22:54,440
Speaker 3: happen with bone Nicks. But you know, he's throwing four

479
00:22:54,480 --> 00:22:56,679
Speaker 3: touchdowns and no picks. He's had some really good games,

480
00:22:56,920 --> 00:22:59,119
Speaker 3: but this one wasn't it. But I think the story

481
00:22:59,119 --> 00:23:02,280
Speaker 3: overall has to be Jacksonville's offense. When you talk about

482
00:23:02,320 --> 00:23:05,600
Speaker 3: Trevor Lawrence, ten touchdowns, no turnovers, his last two games,

483
00:23:06,040 --> 00:23:09,080
Speaker 3: fourteen touchdowns, no picks his last four games, and he

484
00:23:09,160 --> 00:23:13,040
Speaker 3: has just been absolutely red hot. But beyond that red zone,

485
00:23:13,440 --> 00:23:16,280
Speaker 3: third down their last two or three games has been ridiculous.

486
00:23:16,600 --> 00:23:20,040
Speaker 3: Last two games they are eight of eleven in the

487
00:23:20,080 --> 00:23:23,359
Speaker 3: red zone then third down today eight to fifteen. Last

488
00:23:23,359 --> 00:23:26,239
Speaker 3: week four of nine, then seven to fifteen. I mean,

489
00:23:26,400 --> 00:23:29,840
Speaker 3: they're just on a real crazy run of efficiency right

490
00:23:29,840 --> 00:23:34,560
Speaker 3: now and again, twenty five points or more in what

491
00:23:34,720 --> 00:23:37,320
Speaker 3: is it? It's eight straight games and they've scored one

492
00:23:37,400 --> 00:23:39,840
Speaker 3: hundred and eighteen points in the last three games. I mean,

493
00:23:40,280 --> 00:23:43,760
Speaker 3: right now, Jacksonville is as hot as can be. And

494
00:23:43,880 --> 00:23:47,119
Speaker 3: next week they are in Indy to face the Colts. So,

495
00:23:47,600 --> 00:23:50,400
Speaker 3: I mean, other than the miscues from Denver and the

496
00:23:50,440 --> 00:23:53,600
Speaker 3: red hot, white hot Jaguars in terms of their offense,

497
00:23:53,600 --> 00:23:54,720
Speaker 3: what do you take from this one?

498
00:23:55,000 --> 00:23:57,560
Speaker 4: Yeah, it's crazy. You mentioned the twenty five point stat.

499
00:23:57,720 --> 00:23:59,720
Speaker 4: I have a bet lab system for once you do

500
00:23:59,760 --> 00:24:01,639
Speaker 4: that five times in a row, you're supposed to be

501
00:24:01,640 --> 00:24:04,000
Speaker 4: betting against that team. Well, they have been doing it

502
00:24:04,040 --> 00:24:06,080
Speaker 4: for three more times since that trend.

503
00:24:05,920 --> 00:24:08,560
Speaker 2: Is supposed to pop. So yeah, look, last.

504
00:24:08,240 --> 00:24:11,760
Speaker 4: Week we gave Denver kudos. We said, okay, this is

505
00:24:11,800 --> 00:24:14,160
Speaker 4: the team you're supposed to be. Bonix had the game

506
00:24:14,200 --> 00:24:16,480
Speaker 4: he's supposed to have. You kind of let him rip

507
00:24:16,520 --> 00:24:17,080
Speaker 4: it a little bit.

508
00:24:17,160 --> 00:24:18,359
Speaker 2: Well, you let him.

509
00:24:18,280 --> 00:24:20,400
Speaker 4: Rip, he's gonna make some mistakes. And that's the other

510
00:24:20,440 --> 00:24:22,000
Speaker 4: side of the coin that we saw today. He had

511
00:24:22,000 --> 00:24:26,560
Speaker 4: a big fumble, he had an interception. It's thirty one seventeen,

512
00:24:26,960 --> 00:24:28,800
Speaker 4: and he kind of just went sideways from there. As

513
00:24:28,840 --> 00:24:31,280
Speaker 4: soon as Jacksonville got up by a bunch, that's when

514
00:24:31,280 --> 00:24:33,560
Speaker 4: the Knicks fumble happened. Then a field goal, then the

515
00:24:33,600 --> 00:24:36,080
Speaker 4: interception and then turnover and down's end of games. So

516
00:24:36,600 --> 00:24:39,480
Speaker 4: to me, Nicks not being good enough was the story

517
00:24:39,520 --> 00:24:41,960
Speaker 4: and Trevor Lawrence being good enough was the story. So

518
00:24:42,440 --> 00:24:46,639
Speaker 4: late downs really told the story. Denver not good enough,

519
00:24:46,720 --> 00:24:50,479
Speaker 4: that's quarterback play, and Lawrence was fantastic. We gave Knicks'

520
00:24:50,600 --> 00:24:53,760
Speaker 4: credit last week. Trevor Lynz was under pressure.

521
00:24:53,440 --> 00:24:55,480
Speaker 2: All game this game. That was part of the camp.

522
00:24:55,560 --> 00:24:57,639
Speaker 4: I thought Denver was in good shape here because I

523
00:24:57,640 --> 00:24:58,639
Speaker 4: thought they'd bring pressure.

524
00:24:58,680 --> 00:24:59,240
Speaker 2: Well they did.

525
00:24:59,600 --> 00:25:03,480
Speaker 4: He got back five times, but he delivered under pressure

526
00:25:03,640 --> 00:25:04,480
Speaker 4: time after time.

527
00:25:04,960 --> 00:25:06,120
Speaker 2: He ran for a touchdown.

528
00:25:06,119 --> 00:25:08,880
Speaker 4: He threw for three touchdowns two and seventy nine yards

529
00:25:09,040 --> 00:25:12,359
Speaker 4: zero point three EPA per play. That's not MVP numbers,

530
00:25:12,400 --> 00:25:15,880
Speaker 4: but against this defense under that pressure, that's MVP type

531
00:25:15,880 --> 00:25:19,239
Speaker 4: performance by Trevor Lawrence. Like he's not going to win it,

532
00:25:19,480 --> 00:25:21,480
Speaker 4: like you said, we're down to two guys, but he's

533
00:25:21,520 --> 00:25:24,120
Speaker 4: like fourth and odds now. Like we said last week,

534
00:25:24,160 --> 00:25:26,399
Speaker 4: I was kind of goofy that bo Nix was suddenly fourth.

535
00:25:26,640 --> 00:25:29,240
Speaker 4: Trevor Lawrence suddenly has kind of taken that spot there

536
00:25:29,720 --> 00:25:30,320
Speaker 4: for whatever that.

537
00:25:30,720 --> 00:25:32,560
Speaker 3: He's gonna get some votes. He should get some votes.

538
00:25:32,840 --> 00:25:36,000
Speaker 4: He probably he'll make ballots, I would say, especially because

539
00:25:36,040 --> 00:25:38,200
Speaker 4: they're in the race now for the one seed and

540
00:25:38,760 --> 00:25:42,840
Speaker 4: so jackson Yeah, I thought, Jacksonville, this is the win

541
00:25:43,080 --> 00:25:46,560
Speaker 4: that I needed them to do, like to go to Denver,

542
00:25:46,640 --> 00:25:49,240
Speaker 4: who I still have some skepticism about, but it's in

543
00:25:49,320 --> 00:25:53,640
Speaker 4: Denver playing for the one seed and win convincingly. Every

544
00:25:53,680 --> 00:25:57,080
Speaker 4: time Denver made a push, Jacksonville responded, and not just

545
00:25:57,119 --> 00:25:59,639
Speaker 4: with a big play. Denver got the big plays. They

546
00:25:59,680 --> 00:26:02,200
Speaker 4: had ten plays of ten or more yards, six plays

547
00:26:02,240 --> 00:26:05,560
Speaker 4: of twenty yards, four plays of thirty yards. Denver got

548
00:26:05,560 --> 00:26:10,080
Speaker 4: the big plays. Jacksonville got consistent drives down the field,

549
00:26:10,480 --> 00:26:14,119
Speaker 4: and every time Denver threatened Jacksonville scored again and that

550
00:26:14,200 --> 00:26:18,000
Speaker 4: was really impressive to me. Jacksonville now twenty three percent

551
00:26:18,359 --> 00:26:21,040
Speaker 4: per the athletic to be the one seed, so they

552
00:26:21,119 --> 00:26:24,600
Speaker 4: still need help. They need to basically win out that

553
00:26:24,680 --> 00:26:27,480
Speaker 4: gets them to forty one percent because they still need

554
00:26:27,520 --> 00:26:30,080
Speaker 4: a Denver loss and a New England loss to get there.

555
00:26:30,200 --> 00:26:33,919
Speaker 4: So probably not going to happen, but there were some

556
00:26:34,000 --> 00:26:37,439
Speaker 4: weird results already today. We almost got a Patriots loss tonight,

557
00:26:37,960 --> 00:26:41,240
Speaker 4: so it's in the mix certainly. At the other hand,

558
00:26:41,760 --> 00:26:44,920
Speaker 4: they're not even division winners yet. If they don't go

559
00:26:45,040 --> 00:26:48,360
Speaker 4: too oh, they play Colts and then Titans. There's still

560
00:26:48,359 --> 00:26:50,679
Speaker 4: about sixty two percent to win the division, but we

561
00:26:50,760 --> 00:26:53,359
Speaker 4: know the Texans are tough and you'll be hot on their.

562
00:26:53,200 --> 00:26:53,880
Speaker 2: Tails as well.

563
00:26:53,920 --> 00:26:57,960
Speaker 4: Broncos still the one seed for right now, even though

564
00:26:57,960 --> 00:26:59,640
Speaker 4: they're now tied with the Patriots.

565
00:27:00,040 --> 00:27:02,439
Speaker 2: They have the type breaker. They cannot lose that type breaker.

566
00:27:02,800 --> 00:27:05,320
Speaker 4: But they're about fifty percent now to be the one seeder,

567
00:27:05,400 --> 00:27:08,320
Speaker 4: just below. I think they clinch if they went out,

568
00:27:08,359 --> 00:27:11,679
Speaker 4: so they control their destiny. They go Chiefs on Christmas

569
00:27:11,720 --> 00:27:15,000
Speaker 4: in Kansas City, but with Heaven Knows at quarterback, and

570
00:27:15,040 --> 00:27:19,120
Speaker 4: then Chargers to close out so not a devastating loss

571
00:27:19,400 --> 00:27:23,040
Speaker 4: for Denver big picture, but they've lost their margin for air.

572
00:27:23,240 --> 00:27:26,080
Speaker 4: They have to do the thing because Denver also not

573
00:27:26,160 --> 00:27:29,480
Speaker 4: a division champion yet. They're in the playoffs, but if

574
00:27:29,520 --> 00:27:32,240
Speaker 4: they lose out, they probably fall as far as the

575
00:27:32,280 --> 00:27:36,080
Speaker 4: sixth seed. The Chargers can still win and still win

576
00:27:36,160 --> 00:27:39,360
Speaker 4: the division, and again they play the Chargers in Week eighteen.

577
00:27:39,840 --> 00:27:40,879
Speaker 2: We didn't even look at this.

578
00:27:41,040 --> 00:27:45,320
Speaker 4: That could be another one of our standalone Week eighteen games.

579
00:27:45,359 --> 00:27:49,640
Speaker 4: If Denver blows it on Christmas Broncos Chargers is for

580
00:27:49,800 --> 00:27:52,679
Speaker 4: a one seed possibly well I'm no longer the one

581
00:27:52,720 --> 00:27:55,840
Speaker 4: seed probably for Denver, but something like two seed versus

582
00:27:55,960 --> 00:27:58,480
Speaker 4: six seed, depending on where you end up, and that

583
00:27:58,680 --> 00:28:01,320
Speaker 4: certainly is not what anyone wants from this Denver team

584
00:28:01,680 --> 00:28:06,320
Speaker 4: or frankly the Chargers either. So certainly they still can

585
00:28:06,359 --> 00:28:10,760
Speaker 4: get their Denver can but this closed the gap a

586
00:28:10,800 --> 00:28:13,480
Speaker 4: lot between the two and Jacksonville. I thought really did

587
00:28:13,480 --> 00:28:14,199
Speaker 4: what they needed to.

588
00:28:15,359 --> 00:28:17,919
Speaker 3: Yeah, when you talk about Denver and oh, let's just

589
00:28:17,960 --> 00:28:20,520
Speaker 3: assume they bounce back. I mean they're minus twelve and

590
00:28:20,600 --> 00:28:24,560
Speaker 3: a half in Kansas City on Christmas night with a

591
00:28:24,600 --> 00:28:27,359
Speaker 3: total of thirty seven and a half, so basically the

592
00:28:27,440 --> 00:28:29,680
Speaker 3: loadsmakers are just telling you what they think the score

593
00:28:29,720 --> 00:28:31,919
Speaker 3: is going to be in that game. So we'll see

594
00:28:31,960 --> 00:28:34,440
Speaker 3: what type of Chiefs, you know, team shows up and

595
00:28:35,000 --> 00:28:38,240
Speaker 3: how Denver does on the bounce back. But I still

596
00:28:38,240 --> 00:28:40,800
Speaker 3: think with this game, the story's Jacksonville twelve and three

597
00:28:40,840 --> 00:28:43,000
Speaker 3: to their team total over best mark in the league

598
00:28:43,200 --> 00:28:45,320
Speaker 3: seven and zero. When that's on the road, they're ten

599
00:28:45,360 --> 00:28:48,720
Speaker 3: and five ATS, second best ATS start in franchise history.

600
00:28:48,760 --> 00:28:51,320
Speaker 3: I mean, they are legitimately rolling. And I think the

601
00:28:51,360 --> 00:28:55,040
Speaker 3: craziest part is their rush defense. They still haven't allowed

602
00:28:55,440 --> 00:28:57,960
Speaker 3: any player to run for seventy five yards against them.

603
00:28:58,280 --> 00:29:01,560
Speaker 3: The Lions were on the list with ninety less before

604
00:29:01,640 --> 00:29:05,000
Speaker 3: Warren ran all over them today. But Jaguars rush defense.

605
00:29:06,640 --> 00:29:08,600
Speaker 3: And that's me doing a little bit of a kiss

606
00:29:08,600 --> 00:29:11,920
Speaker 3: sem because it's been ridiculous this year. But again, twelve

607
00:29:11,960 --> 00:29:16,000
Speaker 3: straight wins at home for Denver snapped all different types

608
00:29:16,000 --> 00:29:18,440
Speaker 3: of streaks, and this and that and this. People might

609
00:29:18,480 --> 00:29:20,240
Speaker 3: say this might might maybe good for them, but we

610
00:29:20,280 --> 00:29:24,000
Speaker 3: will see in Kansas City next week. All right, let's

611
00:29:24,040 --> 00:29:27,560
Speaker 3: keep rolling here. So we're gonna do an NFC playoff reset.

612
00:29:27,880 --> 00:29:32,320
Speaker 3: So we're gonna do rams Seahawks Bears, Packers, and Philly

613
00:29:32,400 --> 00:29:34,600
Speaker 3: Washington very quickly to kind of just go through those

614
00:29:34,640 --> 00:29:39,080
Speaker 3: three games. Let's start with Seattle wins thirty eight thirty seven.

615
00:29:39,440 --> 00:29:41,280
Speaker 3: Rams actually cover the plus one and a half on

616
00:29:41,400 --> 00:29:44,240
Speaker 3: closed total over forty two and a half. So Rams

617
00:29:44,240 --> 00:29:47,480
Speaker 3: did lead thirty to fourteen in the fourth quarter, up sixteen,

618
00:29:47,600 --> 00:29:50,400
Speaker 3: Darnald throws the interception with under ten minutes left, then

619
00:29:50,520 --> 00:29:53,960
Speaker 3: Rams three and out, Shaheed touchdown, Rams three and out,

620
00:29:54,240 --> 00:29:57,400
Speaker 3: Seattle two play touchdown, and then the most controversial two

621
00:29:57,440 --> 00:30:01,040
Speaker 3: point conversion in the history, and we're tied, so basically,

622
00:30:01,440 --> 00:30:04,000
Speaker 3: and there was just so many opportunities. Like I think,

623
00:30:04,040 --> 00:30:06,440
Speaker 3: when you look at both Green Bay and Chicago and

624
00:30:06,560 --> 00:30:10,600
Speaker 3: this game, at least six things probably had to go

625
00:30:10,720 --> 00:30:14,480
Speaker 3: wrong for the Packers and the Rams to blow these games,

626
00:30:14,640 --> 00:30:17,440
Speaker 3: and they did. So I think it's kind of tough

627
00:30:17,520 --> 00:30:20,520
Speaker 3: to take forward something from this because I feel like

628
00:30:20,680 --> 00:30:24,160
Speaker 3: I still believe now. I think there's Packers' injuries kind

629
00:30:24,160 --> 00:30:25,800
Speaker 3: of getting the way a little bit of what you

630
00:30:25,840 --> 00:30:29,360
Speaker 3: believe in. But from a Rams standpoint, they were up

631
00:30:29,400 --> 00:30:31,520
Speaker 3: thirty to fourteen on what most people believe is the

632
00:30:31,520 --> 00:30:34,200
Speaker 3: most complete team in the NFL. So at that point,

633
00:30:34,240 --> 00:30:36,719
Speaker 3: I still feel good about what I saw. So what

634
00:30:36,760 --> 00:30:38,800
Speaker 3: do you take from Rams Seahawks quickly and then you

635
00:30:38,840 --> 00:30:41,480
Speaker 3: know anything else going forward with both of them?

636
00:30:41,840 --> 00:30:43,440
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think pretty similar takeaway.

637
00:30:43,760 --> 00:30:46,239
Speaker 4: I thought the Rams proved in that game that they

638
00:30:46,240 --> 00:30:48,920
Speaker 4: are by far the number one offense in the league

639
00:30:48,960 --> 00:30:52,800
Speaker 4: and that they are clearly the best team in the league.

640
00:30:52,960 --> 00:30:55,479
Speaker 2: They also lost, so they lost a lot of ground.

641
00:30:55,480 --> 00:30:58,520
Speaker 4: They lost a lot of Super Bowl equity because there's

642
00:30:58,560 --> 00:31:01,560
Speaker 4: a huge difference from a bye week and a one

643
00:31:01,640 --> 00:31:05,800
Speaker 4: seed and home games to suddenly going five, maybe even

644
00:31:05,880 --> 00:31:08,400
Speaker 4: six seeds. Still depending on how things turn out here.

645
00:31:08,520 --> 00:31:11,120
Speaker 4: Now it's not dead. They can still get back to one,

646
00:31:11,600 --> 00:31:15,600
Speaker 4: but they need Actually, the Bears winning really impacted the

647
00:31:15,600 --> 00:31:18,000
Speaker 4: one seed because the path for the Rams is very

648
00:31:18,080 --> 00:31:20,000
Speaker 4: narrowed now to how they get back to the one seed.

649
00:31:20,000 --> 00:31:22,200
Speaker 4: I think they need The Niners have to beat the

650
00:31:23,120 --> 00:31:27,240
Speaker 4: Bears next week, but the Niners need to lose to

651
00:31:27,320 --> 00:31:31,840
Speaker 4: the Seahawks, I believe the following week, and I'm forgetting

652
00:31:31,880 --> 00:31:33,960
Speaker 4: what else. Maybe the Seahawks need to lose to the Panthers.

653
00:31:34,880 --> 00:31:37,680
Speaker 4: I think they all need to happen a certain There's

654
00:31:37,720 --> 00:31:39,600
Speaker 4: one specific outcome that I don't have it in my

655
00:31:39,680 --> 00:31:42,200
Speaker 4: notes here, but there are not a lot of outs anymore.

656
00:31:42,280 --> 00:31:45,000
Speaker 4: Like the Rams need to win out and kind of

657
00:31:45,040 --> 00:31:47,560
Speaker 4: have an inside straight draw, whatever is the version of that.

658
00:31:47,680 --> 00:31:50,640
Speaker 4: But they're the team that I want to pick to

659
00:31:50,680 --> 00:31:52,800
Speaker 4: win the Super Bowl. But the path just got a

660
00:31:52,800 --> 00:31:56,040
Speaker 4: lot harder. So it's a weird at double takeaway. They

661
00:31:56,120 --> 00:31:58,560
Speaker 4: had five hundred and eighty one yards of offense in

662
00:31:58,600 --> 00:32:00,880
Speaker 4: this game, six and a half half yards of play

663
00:32:00,960 --> 00:32:03,920
Speaker 4: on an awesome Seattle defense on the road. How do

664
00:32:03,960 --> 00:32:06,880
Speaker 4: you lose three of six in the red zone? How

665
00:32:06,920 --> 00:32:09,240
Speaker 4: many field goals do they keep selling for? Early in

666
00:32:09,280 --> 00:32:13,560
Speaker 4: the game, bad special teams. We gave up the kick touchdown,

667
00:32:13,640 --> 00:32:15,960
Speaker 4: we know that one. They also missed the field goal

668
00:32:16,000 --> 00:32:19,200
Speaker 4: that probably puts it away twenty three percent win probability

669
00:32:19,200 --> 00:32:22,320
Speaker 4: on the missfield goal. And then the Shihed touchdown was

670
00:32:22,320 --> 00:32:26,520
Speaker 4: worth five EPA as well, So those were huge swings.

671
00:32:26,800 --> 00:32:30,040
Speaker 4: I personally thought the rest gave six points away for

672
00:32:30,120 --> 00:32:32,720
Speaker 4: the Rams. The two point thing is baffling to me.

673
00:32:33,160 --> 00:32:35,640
Speaker 4: You've heard a lot about that already. Early in the game.

674
00:32:35,720 --> 00:32:37,960
Speaker 4: First touchdown that the Rams got taken off the board

675
00:32:38,240 --> 00:32:40,760
Speaker 4: I thought was a really weak penalty that the folks

676
00:32:40,800 --> 00:32:42,000
Speaker 4: on TV kind.

677
00:32:41,840 --> 00:32:42,800
Speaker 2: Of agreed with that as well.

678
00:32:42,840 --> 00:32:45,720
Speaker 4: So that's six points and what became a one point

679
00:32:45,760 --> 00:32:49,280
Speaker 4: loss in a classic game. Rarely do we get the

680
00:32:49,320 --> 00:32:51,400
Speaker 4: game of the year hype that actually lives up to

681
00:32:51,440 --> 00:32:54,440
Speaker 4: the game of the year. And now we have the Rams.

682
00:32:54,480 --> 00:32:56,960
Speaker 4: Like you said, they're the team that you feel better

683
00:32:57,000 --> 00:32:59,960
Speaker 4: about coming out of this. We don't hate the Seahawks.

684
00:33:00,120 --> 00:33:02,200
Speaker 4: They look pretty good too, doing what they had to

685
00:33:02,680 --> 00:33:05,000
Speaker 4: and they're suddenly the one seed and they are going

686
00:33:05,080 --> 00:33:06,880
Speaker 4: to be tough at home. It's going to be loud

687
00:33:06,880 --> 00:33:09,960
Speaker 4: in Seattle if it stays that way, and they've.

688
00:33:09,720 --> 00:33:11,560
Speaker 2: Got to get there. They got to win out still.

689
00:33:11,960 --> 00:33:16,880
Speaker 4: But suddenly, to me, I had the Rams and Seattle

690
00:33:17,000 --> 00:33:19,080
Speaker 4: one and two, and I had them in that order,

691
00:33:19,120 --> 00:33:22,080
Speaker 4: and not one A one be the Rams clearly number one.

692
00:33:22,480 --> 00:33:25,600
Speaker 4: I still have that power ratings wise. But to me,

693
00:33:26,320 --> 00:33:28,440
Speaker 4: what we saw is those two teams I think are

694
00:33:28,480 --> 00:33:32,560
Speaker 4: even further separated from the field and now more even

695
00:33:32,600 --> 00:33:35,600
Speaker 4: with each other because Seattle is probably gonna get home

696
00:33:36,320 --> 00:33:39,200
Speaker 4: home field advantage and the bye week, and the bye

697
00:33:39,240 --> 00:33:41,400
Speaker 4: week is the best way to win a game of

698
00:33:41,400 --> 00:33:43,600
Speaker 4: the playoffs is to not play a game in the playoffs.

699
00:33:43,880 --> 00:33:46,800
Speaker 4: So just that alone is a big deal. I think

700
00:33:46,880 --> 00:33:50,160
Speaker 4: if if you could give me Seahawks versus the field

701
00:33:50,160 --> 00:33:52,760
Speaker 4: in the NFC, or maybe even versus the field in

702
00:33:52,800 --> 00:33:55,480
Speaker 4: the NFL, that's something I'd be interested in looking at

703
00:33:55,600 --> 00:33:55,840
Speaker 4: right now.

704
00:33:55,880 --> 00:33:57,720
Speaker 2: And that to me is the takeaway from the game.

705
00:33:58,560 --> 00:34:01,640
Speaker 3: Yeah, and of course Seattle next week against the lovable underdogs,

706
00:34:01,640 --> 00:34:04,680
Speaker 3: there's laying seven and a half on the road in Carolina.

707
00:34:05,040 --> 00:34:07,160
Speaker 3: I'll just say this before we go to the next game.

708
00:34:07,400 --> 00:34:09,480
Speaker 3: So Sam Donald began his career at twenty one and

709
00:34:09,560 --> 00:34:12,360
Speaker 3: thirty five straight up. He is now twenty six and

710
00:34:12,560 --> 00:34:16,000
Speaker 3: seven in his last two seasons, thirty and ten in

711
00:34:16,040 --> 00:34:18,840
Speaker 3: his last forty starts since twenty twenty two. Most profitable

712
00:34:18,920 --> 00:34:21,840
Speaker 3: quarterback on the money line in the NFL. So Donald

713
00:34:21,840 --> 00:34:25,640
Speaker 3: has taken a nice turn in his last three teams Carolina,

714
00:34:25,719 --> 00:34:29,280
Speaker 3: Minnesota and now Seattle. All right, green Bay in Chicago.

715
00:34:29,400 --> 00:34:32,440
Speaker 3: So Chicago beats Green Bay, you know, shocking if you

716
00:34:32,480 --> 00:34:34,920
Speaker 3: haven't seen, if you've been living under a rock. Twenty

717
00:34:34,920 --> 00:34:37,839
Speaker 3: two to sixteen covers minus one and a half at home,

718
00:34:38,120 --> 00:34:40,720
Speaker 3: total under forty four and a half. Obviously, the Jordan

719
00:34:40,760 --> 00:34:43,600
Speaker 3: Love injury absolutely massive, but Milik Will has played very,

720
00:34:43,719 --> 00:34:46,280
Speaker 3: very well. Nine to eleven twenty one in a touchdown.

721
00:34:46,560 --> 00:34:49,600
Speaker 3: Also very Malik will Is like ten carries for forty

722
00:34:49,600 --> 00:34:53,000
Speaker 3: four yards to me zero point four to eight epa

723
00:34:53,080 --> 00:34:56,760
Speaker 3: per play for maleague amazing and a plus twenty point

724
00:34:56,840 --> 00:35:01,840
Speaker 3: three completion percentage over expected. Just an un real performance

725
00:35:01,880 --> 00:35:04,920
Speaker 3: by him that shouldn't be overlooked because you might have

726
00:35:05,000 --> 00:35:09,600
Speaker 3: to see him face the Ravens next week. But aside

727
00:35:09,600 --> 00:35:11,920
Speaker 3: from that, what is the big takeaway other than the

728
00:35:12,000 --> 00:35:13,799
Speaker 3: ridiculous comeback by the Bears.

729
00:35:14,040 --> 00:35:14,279
Speaker 2: Yeah?

730
00:35:14,320 --> 00:35:16,800
Speaker 4: I mean, look, I live in Chicago Land. The Chicago

731
00:35:16,840 --> 00:35:19,520
Speaker 4: area is out to be buzzing today. Like this is

732
00:35:19,960 --> 00:35:22,480
Speaker 4: for folks my age and younger. This is one of

733
00:35:22,520 --> 00:35:25,959
Speaker 4: the greatest in your lifetime moments as a Bears fan.

734
00:35:26,520 --> 00:35:28,719
Speaker 4: Like folks coming up to me at church today who

735
00:35:28,760 --> 00:35:30,960
Speaker 4: never ever even watched football, who are like, oh, I

736
00:35:30,960 --> 00:35:32,320
Speaker 4: heard there was a big Bears.

737
00:35:32,120 --> 00:35:32,960
Speaker 2: Game, So I watched it.

738
00:35:33,000 --> 00:35:35,680
Speaker 4: Did you see the ending? Yeah, I'm a football analyst.

739
00:35:35,760 --> 00:35:38,760
Speaker 4: I saw the ending. It was pretty crazy. The Bears

740
00:35:38,800 --> 00:35:40,600
Speaker 4: look for all the world like they were gonna blow

741
00:35:40,640 --> 00:35:43,319
Speaker 4: this thing for like fifty seven minutes. You have a

742
00:35:43,360 --> 00:35:47,279
Speaker 4: home game favored as a ten win team and join

743
00:35:47,400 --> 00:35:50,400
Speaker 4: love goes out. That is handing the game to you

744
00:35:50,440 --> 00:35:53,239
Speaker 4: on a platter, and they're like, no, no, you take it.

745
00:35:53,520 --> 00:35:56,160
Speaker 4: Oh wait, three minutes left, Maybe we'll try now. So

746
00:35:56,239 --> 00:35:59,719
Speaker 4: they get the field goal, they recover the on side beautiful,

747
00:36:00,040 --> 00:36:03,560
Speaker 4: awesome on sidekick. We get a touchdown to Jah day Walker.

748
00:36:03,960 --> 00:36:06,160
Speaker 4: I can't tell you anything about Jah day Walker except

749
00:36:06,239 --> 00:36:08,120
Speaker 4: he'd played like eight snaps before that, and he had

750
00:36:08,160 --> 00:36:10,320
Speaker 4: an awesome celebration afterward.

751
00:36:10,680 --> 00:36:12,759
Speaker 2: And then we get into overtime and for all.

752
00:36:12,680 --> 00:36:14,880
Speaker 4: The good mo week Willis's stuff that he did, I

753
00:36:14,880 --> 00:36:17,040
Speaker 4: don't even know if it was his fault, but fumbled

754
00:36:17,040 --> 00:36:19,919
Speaker 4: the final snap he took on fourth down, Bears get

755
00:36:19,920 --> 00:36:22,240
Speaker 4: the ball, and then a couple of plays later, Caleb

756
00:36:22,280 --> 00:36:24,319
Speaker 4: Williams throws a pass that we, like five dudes on

757
00:36:24,360 --> 00:36:27,440
Speaker 4: the planet can throw into the win sixty yards in

758
00:36:27,480 --> 00:36:31,000
Speaker 4: the air. DJ Moore is as fast as anything, and

759
00:36:31,040 --> 00:36:33,399
Speaker 4: he had to run so hard that when he came

760
00:36:33,480 --> 00:36:35,960
Speaker 4: down with the ball, he was just cooked, like he

761
00:36:36,160 --> 00:36:39,080
Speaker 4: was done in the end zone. He just dropped the

762
00:36:39,120 --> 00:36:40,879
Speaker 4: ball to the side. He was like, I ain't get

763
00:36:40,920 --> 00:36:43,920
Speaker 4: up to celebrate, Like I just used the last gas.

764
00:36:43,600 --> 00:36:46,400
Speaker 2: In the tank. I'm done, we won, I'm out.

765
00:36:46,719 --> 00:36:50,440
Speaker 4: Just an awesome moment for Bears fans, awesome moment for

766
00:36:50,520 --> 00:36:53,600
Speaker 4: Bear's Island. I'll be honest. We started there beginning of

767
00:36:53,640 --> 00:36:55,719
Speaker 4: the season, then went oh and two when I was

768
00:36:55,760 --> 00:36:58,520
Speaker 4: like a bart, we're out, Like if Bear's Island is

769
00:36:58,560 --> 00:37:02,960
Speaker 4: over Suddenly, now the division looking very good for the Bears.

770
00:37:04,000 --> 00:37:05,680
Speaker 4: They are now clinched in the playoffs.

771
00:37:06,239 --> 00:37:06,759
Speaker 2: Packers.

772
00:37:06,840 --> 00:37:09,480
Speaker 4: I came out of this thinking, man, you're in serious trouble.

773
00:37:09,560 --> 00:37:13,120
Speaker 4: Now you get Baltimore and then you've got Minnesota. Detroit's

774
00:37:13,160 --> 00:37:16,759
Speaker 4: breathing down your neck. Well, turns out Packers are not

775
00:37:16,880 --> 00:37:19,680
Speaker 4: as much trouble anymore because Detroit is no longer breathing

776
00:37:19,760 --> 00:37:22,120
Speaker 4: quite as much down their neck, and the Ravens no

777
00:37:22,200 --> 00:37:25,240
Speaker 4: longer look quite as dangerous to them. I still think,

778
00:37:25,640 --> 00:37:28,920
Speaker 4: given where the Packers are at, like you can't have

779
00:37:28,960 --> 00:37:32,320
Speaker 4: a funeral for everyone this week, but man Tucker Craft

780
00:37:32,360 --> 00:37:35,520
Speaker 4: already out, Micah Person's already out, Zach Tom has still hurt.

781
00:37:35,520 --> 00:37:38,520
Speaker 4: Their best offensive lineman Jacobs gets hurt too in this

782
00:37:38,640 --> 00:37:41,200
Speaker 4: game and was already questionable into it. We don't know

783
00:37:41,200 --> 00:37:43,279
Speaker 4: where he's at. We don't know if Jordan Love will

784
00:37:43,280 --> 00:37:45,799
Speaker 4: be able to play. I'm assuming Love will play again

785
00:37:45,880 --> 00:37:48,840
Speaker 4: this season. At some point, I think he seems relatively

786
00:37:48,960 --> 00:37:52,560
Speaker 4: likely to play on Saturday. They still get in, as

787
00:37:52,600 --> 00:37:56,080
Speaker 4: we said, win either game or Lions lose either game,

788
00:37:56,120 --> 00:37:59,319
Speaker 4: they get in. I think they probably get in, but

789
00:37:59,520 --> 00:38:01,040
Speaker 4: I don't know how you can have any faith in

790
00:38:01,080 --> 00:38:03,080
Speaker 4: this team at this point, not because of the way

791
00:38:03,120 --> 00:38:06,400
Speaker 4: they blew this game. This was an awesome Matt Lafleur game.

792
00:38:06,760 --> 00:38:11,160
Speaker 4: Lafleur when he gets everything taken away and Malik willis like, awesome.

793
00:38:11,280 --> 00:38:13,319
Speaker 4: This was a game they deserve to win right up

794
00:38:13,360 --> 00:38:16,520
Speaker 4: until they didn't credit for that. But I don't know

795
00:38:16,520 --> 00:38:18,560
Speaker 4: how you can have any faith that this team, even

796
00:38:18,600 --> 00:38:21,200
Speaker 4: if they get in, can go win three times on

797
00:38:21,239 --> 00:38:23,120
Speaker 4: the road and then a Super Bowl. Is just there're

798
00:38:23,160 --> 00:38:26,000
Speaker 4: too many injuries. It's kind of become season from Hell

799
00:38:26,120 --> 00:38:28,120
Speaker 4: for Green Bay. And it all happened in the last

800
00:38:28,120 --> 00:38:31,839
Speaker 4: seven days between these two games, so I think the

801
00:38:31,840 --> 00:38:35,399
Speaker 4: Packers probably have lost the war now as well, and

802
00:38:35,600 --> 00:38:38,520
Speaker 4: Bears suddenly looking like the two Seeds, so we'll see

803
00:38:38,760 --> 00:38:42,480
Speaker 4: talk about everything is wide open. Wide opens pretty good

804
00:38:42,480 --> 00:38:44,879
Speaker 4: for the Bears, and the NFC suddenly feels a lot

805
00:38:44,920 --> 00:38:47,600
Speaker 4: more open too, if it's Seattle and Chicago at the

806
00:38:47,640 --> 00:38:50,400
Speaker 4: top rather than like the Rams and the healthy Packers.

807
00:38:50,440 --> 00:38:52,640
Speaker 4: That's a pretty big swing in the last couple of weeks.

808
00:38:53,760 --> 00:38:55,640
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, at this point, I just feel like

809
00:38:55,719 --> 00:38:58,560
Speaker 3: Green Bay ceiling just got lower, and that's kind of

810
00:38:58,560 --> 00:39:01,319
Speaker 3: all you could really say. I mean, we'll gonna make

811
00:39:01,320 --> 00:39:04,960
Speaker 3: the playoffs possibly at this point. And Malik Willis, if

812
00:39:04,960 --> 00:39:07,520
Speaker 3: he's there, you know, he's gonna play decently well. I mean,

813
00:39:07,520 --> 00:39:09,520
Speaker 3: it's a great backup for Lafloor, who seems to know

814
00:39:09,560 --> 00:39:12,480
Speaker 3: exactly what to do with him in the offense. But

815
00:39:12,520 --> 00:39:14,680
Speaker 3: I'll you know, Bears beat the Packers after trailing by

816
00:39:14,760 --> 00:39:17,360
Speaker 3: ten plus points in the fourth. Chicago had lost twenty

817
00:39:17,400 --> 00:39:19,959
Speaker 3: straight versus Green Bay when trailing by ten plus points

818
00:39:19,960 --> 00:39:22,920
Speaker 3: at any point. And this is the stat that really

819
00:39:23,040 --> 00:39:25,759
Speaker 3: blows you away, because this is telling you that we've

820
00:39:25,840 --> 00:39:28,120
Speaker 3: we've crossed off some demons here, which is, for the

821
00:39:28,160 --> 00:39:30,800
Speaker 3: first time since nineteen ninety eight, the Bears have covered

822
00:39:30,840 --> 00:39:34,960
Speaker 3: consecutive home games versus the Packers. That's it, nineteen ninety eight.

823
00:39:35,040 --> 00:39:37,680
Speaker 3: I mean, it's just unbelievable what this streak had looked

824
00:39:37,719 --> 00:39:41,080
Speaker 3: like and where we are now. I do believe this

825
00:39:41,320 --> 00:39:44,000
Speaker 3: victory and the turnaround. I mean, this could be a

826
00:39:44,160 --> 00:39:47,920
Speaker 3: motivational move for Chicago, but we will see how that

827
00:39:47,960 --> 00:39:51,240
Speaker 3: looks next week. All right, do you have anything else here?

828
00:39:51,600 --> 00:39:53,759
Speaker 4: I was gonna say Cassandra and the comments, who I

829
00:39:53,800 --> 00:39:55,800
Speaker 4: know that's on here watching every week says the Bears

830
00:39:55,840 --> 00:39:56,799
Speaker 4: are still fraudulent.

831
00:39:57,160 --> 00:39:59,120
Speaker 2: I don't know if I even disagree with that. But

832
00:39:59,440 --> 00:40:01,120
Speaker 2: who's not up front in the NFL?

833
00:40:01,680 --> 00:40:02,960
Speaker 3: Who cares at this point?

834
00:40:02,960 --> 00:40:06,400
Speaker 4: Who carries Yeah, exactly like somebody's got to win stuff.

835
00:40:06,719 --> 00:40:09,719
Speaker 4: So yeah, speaking of fraudulent the Eagles, I don't really

836
00:40:09,800 --> 00:40:11,839
Speaker 4: need to say anything about the Eagles. I'm mad at

837
00:40:11,840 --> 00:40:13,840
Speaker 4: them for that, like the one of the dumbest overs

838
00:40:13,840 --> 00:40:17,480
Speaker 4: we've seen in a while, those weird conversions at the end.

839
00:40:17,880 --> 00:40:19,680
Speaker 2: Just say very Eagles game.

840
00:40:19,719 --> 00:40:21,839
Speaker 4: At this point, I don't have a lot to add

841
00:40:21,840 --> 00:40:23,600
Speaker 4: about it that they kind of who we thought they

842
00:40:23,640 --> 00:40:26,000
Speaker 4: were saku and finally broke a couple of long ones.

843
00:40:26,040 --> 00:40:28,760
Speaker 4: Did you have anything much from the Eagles game on Saturday?

844
00:40:29,360 --> 00:40:31,759
Speaker 3: No win by eleven, covers by seven on the road

845
00:40:31,840 --> 00:40:34,759
Speaker 3: over forty three and a half. Like Philly's gonna win

846
00:40:34,800 --> 00:40:37,520
Speaker 3: the same game every single time, So this is how

847
00:40:37,520 --> 00:40:41,000
Speaker 3: Philly wins. Uh, It's just I think it's just good

848
00:40:41,000 --> 00:40:44,320
Speaker 3: to say they looked good even against a bad team,

849
00:40:44,480 --> 00:40:48,160
Speaker 3: and two teams against the Raiders as well, so moving forward,

850
00:40:48,239 --> 00:40:50,480
Speaker 3: it's just nice to see. But they're the Ranning champs,

851
00:40:50,480 --> 00:40:52,960
Speaker 3: like this isn't This isn't a shock to anyone, and

852
00:40:53,000 --> 00:40:54,799
Speaker 3: they should look like this. They win the division, we'll

853
00:40:54,800 --> 00:40:57,400
Speaker 3: see him in the playoffs. All right, let's get to

854
00:40:57,440 --> 00:40:59,960
Speaker 3: some shorter recaps. Now, we've got three games before I'm

855
00:41:00,160 --> 00:41:03,640
Speaker 3: going to roll through some scores. So Carolina wins twenty

856
00:41:03,680 --> 00:41:06,959
Speaker 3: three to twenty covers plus three at home, total under

857
00:41:07,000 --> 00:41:10,200
Speaker 3: forty five and a half. All eight of Carolina's wins

858
00:41:10,239 --> 00:41:14,120
Speaker 3: this season have come as underdogs. Their eight as an

859
00:41:14,200 --> 00:41:16,640
Speaker 3: underdog is tied for the most by any team in

860
00:41:16,680 --> 00:41:18,600
Speaker 3: the Super Bowl era, and they will have a chance

861
00:41:18,640 --> 00:41:21,799
Speaker 3: to break that record next week at home against the

862
00:41:21,840 --> 00:41:25,239
Speaker 3: Seahawks getting seven and a half. But I think the

863
00:41:25,280 --> 00:41:28,320
Speaker 3: story here more than Carolina, who is now also seven

864
00:41:28,320 --> 00:41:30,520
Speaker 3: and zero against the spread off of a loss, is

865
00:41:30,560 --> 00:41:34,120
Speaker 3: the Bucks one in six in the last seven games

866
00:41:34,560 --> 00:41:38,239
Speaker 3: they started six and two, just an absolute terrible collapse

867
00:41:38,520 --> 00:41:42,480
Speaker 3: by Bowles and Baker. They've lost seven straight against the spread,

868
00:41:42,560 --> 00:41:46,719
Speaker 3: and in their last three losses all coming against divisional opponents.

869
00:41:47,000 --> 00:41:49,480
Speaker 3: So this was the stretch where you need to go

870
00:41:50,040 --> 00:41:53,520
Speaker 3: two and one right just to hold ground, make sure

871
00:41:53,560 --> 00:41:56,359
Speaker 3: you're doing everything right. They should have beaten Atlanta, They

872
00:41:56,400 --> 00:41:59,760
Speaker 3: were in great position multiple times to beat Carolina today.

873
00:41:59,800 --> 00:42:02,839
Speaker 3: But they haven't lost seven straight against the spread since

874
00:42:02,960 --> 00:42:07,360
Speaker 3: nineteen eighty two, eighty three. Insane, insane, And this is

875
00:42:07,400 --> 00:42:10,440
Speaker 3: their first seven game ats losing streak in the same

876
00:42:10,520 --> 00:42:14,040
Speaker 3: season in franchise history, franchise history for Tampa Bay, and

877
00:42:14,080 --> 00:42:17,359
Speaker 3: that's that seventies Bucks team, the Creamsicles that were the

878
00:42:17,440 --> 00:42:21,600
Speaker 3: worst of the worst. So this, this Bucks collapse, I

879
00:42:21,640 --> 00:42:25,040
Speaker 3: think is going to It's gonna somebody's job has to

880
00:42:25,200 --> 00:42:28,160
Speaker 3: roll with what's going on in Tampa Bay, especially if

881
00:42:28,200 --> 00:42:31,040
Speaker 3: they don't figure out a way to get back to Carolina.

882
00:42:31,200 --> 00:42:34,040
Speaker 3: Just absolutely terrible, and we've been talking about this for weeks.

883
00:42:34,360 --> 00:42:39,000
Speaker 3: Baker playing absolutely garbage, like he is last and completion

884
00:42:39,080 --> 00:42:43,560
Speaker 3: percentage over expected since week seven thirty second in success

885
00:42:43,640 --> 00:42:46,200
Speaker 3: right in that span. Just he is playing so poorly.

886
00:42:46,239 --> 00:42:48,760
Speaker 3: And it even looked a little bit better today, especially

887
00:42:49,040 --> 00:42:51,799
Speaker 3: opening drive touchdown to Mike Evans, like we thought things

888
00:42:51,800 --> 00:42:54,720
Speaker 3: were kind of in the right direction. But Carolina figures

889
00:42:54,719 --> 00:42:55,040
Speaker 3: it out.

890
00:42:55,760 --> 00:42:58,160
Speaker 4: Yeah, we love the Evans touchdown. We bet that one.

891
00:42:58,200 --> 00:43:00,000
Speaker 4: I know Rebond bet that one. A lot of us

892
00:43:00,080 --> 00:43:02,520
Speaker 4: that action, enjoying Mike Evans to get the score. He

893
00:43:02,719 --> 00:43:05,440
Speaker 4: had another shot later on that I think just bounced

894
00:43:05,480 --> 00:43:07,399
Speaker 4: off of his hands. Otherwise we're going to cash the two.

895
00:43:07,480 --> 00:43:07,680
Speaker 3: There.

896
00:43:08,000 --> 00:43:11,520
Speaker 4: You mentioned Baker playing badly. He throws the interception in

897
00:43:11,680 --> 00:43:13,839
Speaker 4: field goal arrange with forty nine seconds left.

898
00:43:13,880 --> 00:43:15,960
Speaker 2: It's a three point game, you are.

899
00:43:16,040 --> 00:43:18,719
Speaker 4: I mean it admittedly long field goal arrange, and it's

900
00:43:18,760 --> 00:43:21,400
Speaker 4: not like the Buccaneers have any good special teams.

901
00:43:21,320 --> 00:43:24,000
Speaker 3: But likes good though. I mean, he could have hit it.

902
00:43:24,080 --> 00:43:24,680
Speaker 2: This is true.

903
00:43:24,719 --> 00:43:27,560
Speaker 4: It's true, and Baker, like I think it just had

904
00:43:27,640 --> 00:43:30,719
Speaker 4: to have been miscommunication. And look, I understand that your

905
00:43:30,719 --> 00:43:32,960
Speaker 4: receivers have all been hurt all seasons, so you're kind

906
00:43:32,960 --> 00:43:35,400
Speaker 4: of trying to get things going again, but like you

907
00:43:35,440 --> 00:43:36,800
Speaker 4: can't take any chances.

908
00:43:37,120 --> 00:43:40,000
Speaker 2: This is your season, This is the whole game, the whole.

909
00:43:39,760 --> 00:43:43,360
Speaker 4: Season for you, and you are at like at least

910
00:43:43,600 --> 00:43:45,560
Speaker 4: you are like a five yard gain away from a

911
00:43:45,560 --> 00:43:47,879
Speaker 4: pretty good looking field goal for your team to tie

912
00:43:47,920 --> 00:43:51,440
Speaker 4: the game, have a shot in overtime. I really, I

913
00:43:51,520 --> 00:43:53,520
Speaker 4: kind of don't take a ton away from the game

914
00:43:53,560 --> 00:43:55,479
Speaker 4: because I just thought it was a very even game

915
00:43:55,520 --> 00:43:57,719
Speaker 4: between two teams I think are very even and like

916
00:43:58,080 --> 00:44:01,319
Speaker 4: not that good. So the game was close all the way.

917
00:44:01,719 --> 00:44:04,839
Speaker 4: The stats are pretty close, neither team at three hundred yards,

918
00:44:04,880 --> 00:44:06,960
Speaker 4: so I was ready to be like, ah, these offensive

919
00:44:07,000 --> 00:44:09,960
Speaker 4: stink not not really. Fourteen of twenty six on third

920
00:44:10,000 --> 00:44:12,960
Speaker 4: down combined both forty three percent success rate. I think

921
00:44:13,000 --> 00:44:16,080
Speaker 4: that's just kind of a run heavy game and just

922
00:44:16,280 --> 00:44:19,560
Speaker 4: a game that moved quickly, both about five yards of play,

923
00:44:20,040 --> 00:44:23,719
Speaker 4: very coin flippy. So Okay, Bryce Young, good job, two

924
00:44:23,760 --> 00:44:25,760
Speaker 4: touchdowns one hundred and ninety one yards.

925
00:44:25,760 --> 00:44:28,719
Speaker 2: Not bad that he probably outplayed Baker in this one.

926
00:44:28,800 --> 00:44:31,279
Speaker 4: Well, you're gonna have to do it again, because in

927
00:44:31,320 --> 00:44:36,520
Speaker 4: all likelihood still week eighteen, if Carolina wins against Seattle

928
00:44:36,600 --> 00:44:39,920
Speaker 4: next week and the Bucks lose at Miami, then the

929
00:44:39,960 --> 00:44:44,000
Speaker 4: Panthers clinch. Okay, probably Carolina is not gonna beat Seattle.

930
00:44:44,200 --> 00:44:46,479
Speaker 4: So so I'm gonna keep in mind my only real

931
00:44:46,520 --> 00:44:51,160
Speaker 4: takeaway here. If the Bucks win big, like if if Miami,

932
00:44:51,200 --> 00:44:54,239
Speaker 4: if quinn Ewers is just awful again and Tampa Bay

933
00:44:54,280 --> 00:44:57,960
Speaker 4: is way up at the half, if that game looks settled,

934
00:44:58,200 --> 00:45:01,840
Speaker 4: Carolina's game doesn't matter anymore? Does Carolina pull their starters

935
00:45:01,880 --> 00:45:04,160
Speaker 4: in the second half of that game if the Bucks

936
00:45:04,160 --> 00:45:07,239
Speaker 4: are up big or if Carolina is getting blown up

937
00:45:07,280 --> 00:45:10,840
Speaker 4: by Seattle early on, Now the Bucks game doesn't matter anymore.

938
00:45:10,920 --> 00:45:13,680
Speaker 4: So is that maybe a live betting opportunity If you

939
00:45:13,719 --> 00:45:16,759
Speaker 4: spot that thing coming, maybe you like combine a few

940
00:45:16,800 --> 00:45:20,759
Speaker 4: alts of a big Bucks win with a big Carolina loss,

941
00:45:21,160 --> 00:45:26,440
Speaker 4: where something sorry or Carolina loss and a Bucks loss

942
00:45:26,520 --> 00:45:28,000
Speaker 4: is the way you want to go. It's like, okay,

943
00:45:28,600 --> 00:45:32,759
Speaker 4: you want both together basically, but there may be some

944
00:45:32,920 --> 00:45:37,360
Speaker 4: live betting opportunities or some correlated parly opportunities where the

945
00:45:37,400 --> 00:45:41,320
Speaker 4: Week seventeen outcomes probably aren't gonna matter for these teams,

946
00:45:41,600 --> 00:45:44,040
Speaker 4: but they start at the same time, so you're gonna

947
00:45:44,040 --> 00:45:45,200
Speaker 4: have to kind of keep an eye on it.

948
00:45:45,680 --> 00:45:47,040
Speaker 2: And I go from there.

949
00:45:47,120 --> 00:45:50,120
Speaker 4: But to me, I think we're probably still coming down

950
00:45:50,160 --> 00:45:52,680
Speaker 4: to Week eighteen and one of his team's playing for

951
00:45:52,719 --> 00:45:55,200
Speaker 4: the home game in the playoffs and probably still your

952
00:45:55,200 --> 00:45:58,600
Speaker 4: odds on favorite to be that final Sunday night.

953
00:45:58,680 --> 00:45:59,879
Speaker 2: That we love to speculate some.

954
00:46:01,600 --> 00:46:04,919
Speaker 3: Yeah, that should be a low scoring, ugly offensive game.

955
00:46:04,960 --> 00:46:07,160
Speaker 3: Can't wait for that one, all right, Let's keep going here.

956
00:46:07,520 --> 00:46:11,080
Speaker 3: Bill's Brown's Buffalo wins a game twenty three to twenty.

957
00:46:11,480 --> 00:46:13,840
Speaker 3: Cleveland covers the plus ten and a half on close

958
00:46:13,880 --> 00:46:16,719
Speaker 3: at home total over forty one and a half. I mean,

959
00:46:16,719 --> 00:46:19,480
Speaker 3: the whole story here is probably the early injury from

960
00:46:19,520 --> 00:46:24,240
Speaker 3: Josh Allen hurts his foot, gets X rays negative, obviously

961
00:46:24,400 --> 00:46:26,680
Speaker 3: looks like he's gonna be fine and moving forward, but

962
00:46:27,080 --> 00:46:29,040
Speaker 3: it impact is just kind of how this game went.

963
00:46:29,120 --> 00:46:32,440
Speaker 3: They didn't play well, and Ian hart Ditz tweeted this,

964
00:46:32,600 --> 00:46:35,200
Speaker 3: I took it from him Josh Allen's seven point one

965
00:46:35,239 --> 00:46:37,520
Speaker 3: fantasy points today where is fused in a full game

966
00:46:37,760 --> 00:46:40,399
Speaker 3: since his rookie year, and he just played terribly even

967
00:46:40,440 --> 00:46:44,040
Speaker 3: when he got back into the game. So from Buffalo's standpoint,

968
00:46:44,640 --> 00:46:46,879
Speaker 3: usually the same deal. Don't play great on the road,

969
00:46:46,920 --> 00:46:49,759
Speaker 3: play better at home. Cleveland's defense kind of disrupts a

970
00:46:49,800 --> 00:46:54,120
Speaker 3: lot of good teams. Anyway, Miles one sack away after

971
00:46:54,160 --> 00:46:56,640
Speaker 3: getting credited with a half, so that's definitely something to

972
00:46:56,680 --> 00:46:59,520
Speaker 3: look forward to. And again, I mean bet Labs was

973
00:46:59,520 --> 00:47:01,920
Speaker 3: on it today, a lot of people liked Cleveland, but

974
00:47:01,960 --> 00:47:04,840
Speaker 3: double digit home dogs to keep going well twenty eight

975
00:47:04,920 --> 00:47:07,400
Speaker 3: and sixteen since twenty twenty, So what do you make

976
00:47:07,400 --> 00:47:08,480
Speaker 3: from Buffalo Cleveland.

977
00:47:08,920 --> 00:47:11,200
Speaker 4: Yeah, my numbers really like Cleveland, and I just didn't

978
00:47:11,239 --> 00:47:13,440
Speaker 4: have the heart to bet shade Sanders, but look he

979
00:47:13,560 --> 00:47:16,920
Speaker 4: outplayed by EPA against Josh Allen today. Allen was worse

980
00:47:16,960 --> 00:47:19,360
Speaker 4: on EPA per play than Shoulde Sanders. And I know

981
00:47:19,440 --> 00:47:21,239
Speaker 4: he's playing with an injury, but that's what you got

982
00:47:21,280 --> 00:47:23,920
Speaker 4: at this point of the season. Ela Shoulder played an

983
00:47:23,960 --> 00:47:25,760
Speaker 4: injury too, he left for a little bit as well.

984
00:47:25,840 --> 00:47:28,520
Speaker 4: So I just I had to note this game for

985
00:47:28,600 --> 00:47:32,080
Speaker 4: us because I was concerned about the Bills already coming

986
00:47:32,120 --> 00:47:34,160
Speaker 4: into this game a lot of the DVA and I

987
00:47:34,239 --> 00:47:37,040
Speaker 4: know why metrics said this is just a very mid team,

988
00:47:37,080 --> 00:47:40,000
Speaker 4: like a very league average type team for about the

989
00:47:40,040 --> 00:47:41,000
Speaker 4: last six weeks.

990
00:47:41,160 --> 00:47:41,799
Speaker 2: Well, this is not.

991
00:47:41,800 --> 00:47:44,960
Speaker 4: Gonna help, and certainly the Bills on the road have

992
00:47:45,120 --> 00:47:47,680
Speaker 4: not been a good team since the start of twenty

993
00:47:47,760 --> 00:47:50,759
Speaker 4: twenty three. Now the Bills have won three in a row,

994
00:47:50,840 --> 00:47:53,759
Speaker 4: but they are fourteen and twelve straight up on the

995
00:47:53,880 --> 00:47:56,560
Speaker 4: road during this three year stretch that we continue to

996
00:47:56,600 --> 00:47:59,840
Speaker 4: tweat them like they are this bona fide Inner Circle

997
00:48:00,200 --> 00:48:01,120
Speaker 4: Super Bowl contender.

998
00:48:01,160 --> 00:48:02,439
Speaker 2: But guess what the.

999
00:48:02,320 --> 00:48:04,600
Speaker 4: Bills are gonna have to win three road games if

1000
00:48:04,600 --> 00:48:06,680
Speaker 4: they want to get to the Super Bowl. And here

1001
00:48:06,719 --> 00:48:09,600
Speaker 4: are the fourteen wins. We've said some of these names before.

1002
00:48:10,080 --> 00:48:12,759
Speaker 4: Add Shoulder Sanders to the list. Here's the teams the

1003
00:48:12,760 --> 00:48:16,880
Speaker 4: Bills are beating on the road. Shoulder Easton, Stick, Sam Howell,

1004
00:48:17,000 --> 00:48:22,320
Speaker 4: Andy Dalton, Justin Fields, Joe Flacco, Gino Smith, Tua Tagovailoa twice,

1005
00:48:22,560 --> 00:48:26,560
Speaker 4: Aaron Rodgers twice at this age, and then Jared Goth,

1006
00:48:26,920 --> 00:48:29,719
Speaker 4: Patrick Mahomes, and Drake May of course last week. So

1007
00:48:29,760 --> 00:48:32,800
Speaker 4: we got a few good names on there. But man,

1008
00:48:33,280 --> 00:48:35,719
Speaker 4: they cannot win on the road. And when they do,

1009
00:48:36,160 --> 00:48:38,560
Speaker 4: it's because they're playing these terrible quarterbacks, who, by the way,

1010
00:48:38,600 --> 00:48:40,560
Speaker 4: are not going to be the guys you face in

1011
00:48:40,600 --> 00:48:43,399
Speaker 4: the playoffs. They're gonna have to win real tough games

1012
00:48:43,440 --> 00:48:46,960
Speaker 4: in the playoffs. And I think we kind of we

1013
00:48:47,040 --> 00:48:49,600
Speaker 4: know the AFC is open, and by default we just

1014
00:48:49,719 --> 00:48:52,960
Speaker 4: keep kind of saying, well, you know, Josh Allen probably,

1015
00:48:53,000 --> 00:48:56,440
Speaker 4: no Lamar now, no Patrick Mahomes, now, this gotta be

1016
00:48:56,520 --> 00:49:00,279
Speaker 4: Allen's ear. Well, Allen's got teammates, and Allen's not quite

1017
00:49:00,280 --> 00:49:02,560
Speaker 4: playing his MVP level. He was not that at all

1018
00:49:02,600 --> 00:49:05,360
Speaker 4: today and his teammates are not playing anything level.

1019
00:49:05,680 --> 00:49:08,520
Speaker 2: The Browns had like fifty more yards in the Bills. Today.

1020
00:49:08,920 --> 00:49:11,200
Speaker 4: The Browns outplayed the Bills and a lot of metrics,

1021
00:49:11,239 --> 00:49:14,240
Speaker 4: or at least played them pretty evenly. And that's the Browns,

1022
00:49:14,239 --> 00:49:17,360
Speaker 4: the team that's probably actively tinking at this point.

1023
00:49:17,760 --> 00:49:20,040
Speaker 2: That's not a good result for Buffalo. You got the win.

1024
00:49:20,600 --> 00:49:22,520
Speaker 4: Wins and losses don't matter that much for this team

1025
00:49:22,600 --> 00:49:25,600
Speaker 4: right now. They need allenhealthy and they need to stop

1026
00:49:25,640 --> 00:49:28,520
Speaker 4: sucking because they are just not a good team right now.

1027
00:49:28,600 --> 00:49:31,200
Speaker 4: They're very average and not a team that you should

1028
00:49:31,200 --> 00:49:33,320
Speaker 4: be investing futures in by anything we've seen in the

1029
00:49:33,400 --> 00:49:34,719
Speaker 4: last like two months.

1030
00:49:35,239 --> 00:49:37,319
Speaker 3: Yeah, I got a big stop sign next to him,

1031
00:49:37,360 --> 00:49:39,840
Speaker 3: But I mean next week's interesting. They are five and

1032
00:49:39,880 --> 00:49:41,799
Speaker 3: zero against the spread this year when facing teams above

1033
00:49:41,840 --> 00:49:44,520
Speaker 3: five hundred, and they are now one in five when

1034
00:49:44,520 --> 00:49:47,320
Speaker 3: facing teams below five hundred against the spread. So a

1035
00:49:47,560 --> 00:49:50,120
Speaker 3: difficult I mean, it's just basically who we've seen from

1036
00:49:50,160 --> 00:49:53,279
Speaker 3: Buffalo this year. You had mentioned home road. I'll just

1037
00:49:53,360 --> 00:49:55,920
Speaker 3: leave you with this road this year, Josh is passer

1038
00:49:55,920 --> 00:49:58,800
Speaker 3: eting eighty seven to seven at home one hundred and

1039
00:49:58,920 --> 00:50:01,680
Speaker 3: nineteen point two. Don't really need to say much more

1040
00:50:01,680 --> 00:50:04,880
Speaker 3: than that, all right, I mean, this one's for you,

1041
00:50:04,920 --> 00:50:09,640
Speaker 3: baby Vikings Giants. Vikings win at sixteen thirteen cover two

1042
00:50:09,680 --> 00:50:12,200
Speaker 3: and a half on the road on close total under

1043
00:50:12,239 --> 00:50:15,759
Speaker 3: forty one and a half. JJ gets hurt. We see Brosmer,

1044
00:50:15,920 --> 00:50:18,440
Speaker 3: maybe we see Brosmer against the Lions as well. But

1045
00:50:18,840 --> 00:50:21,080
Speaker 3: what else is the story here other than the wind

1046
00:50:21,160 --> 00:50:24,799
Speaker 3: and Jackson Dart throwing what what he threw for? Like

1047
00:50:24,800 --> 00:50:25,680
Speaker 3: thirty three yards in.

1048
00:50:25,600 --> 00:50:26,440
Speaker 2: The three yards?

1049
00:50:26,520 --> 00:50:26,719
Speaker 3: Yeah?

1050
00:50:26,800 --> 00:50:30,120
Speaker 4: Great, Jackson Dart threw for thirty three yards. I was like, oh, yeah,

1051
00:50:30,160 --> 00:50:31,160
Speaker 4: I forgot that he got hurt.

1052
00:50:31,160 --> 00:50:33,359
Speaker 2: Oh no, no, he didn't get hurt. He just went

1053
00:50:33,520 --> 00:50:35,040
Speaker 2: for thirty three yards. That's it.

1054
00:50:35,120 --> 00:50:38,560
Speaker 4: He got sacked five times. He threw thirteen times for

1055
00:50:38,600 --> 00:50:42,160
Speaker 4: thirty three yards. Minnesota's defense was awesome in this game.

1056
00:50:42,480 --> 00:50:44,399
Speaker 4: So I guess that's a story. These teams don't matter.

1057
00:50:44,440 --> 00:50:47,520
Speaker 4: The story that matters is injuries for both sides. Andrew

1058
00:50:47,560 --> 00:50:50,400
Speaker 4: Thomas leaves hurt for the Giants. Andrew Thomas has been

1059
00:50:50,480 --> 00:50:52,600
Speaker 4: quite frankly as good as any lineman in the league

1060
00:50:52,960 --> 00:50:55,560
Speaker 4: and consistently the Giants for years now. When he goes out,

1061
00:50:55,840 --> 00:50:58,080
Speaker 4: they crater, they completely fall apart.

1062
00:50:58,280 --> 00:50:59,880
Speaker 2: So keep an eye on. I didn't see how bad

1063
00:51:00,040 --> 00:51:00,680
Speaker 2: the injury is.

1064
00:51:01,239 --> 00:51:03,319
Speaker 4: Obviously the Giants don't matter a lot, but we still

1065
00:51:03,320 --> 00:51:05,799
Speaker 4: have games to bet on with them. If he's hurt,

1066
00:51:05,840 --> 00:51:08,239
Speaker 4: I cannot bet on the Giants. That's how big of

1067
00:51:08,239 --> 00:51:10,800
Speaker 4: a deal he is to them. Like think think losing

1068
00:51:10,880 --> 00:51:13,799
Speaker 4: Pinay Sewell or Trent Williams somebody like that. That's what

1069
00:51:13,880 --> 00:51:16,720
Speaker 4: Andrew Thomas means, to the point that I would honestly

1070
00:51:16,760 --> 00:51:19,279
Speaker 4: consider shutting down Jackson dark. If I'm the Giants and

1071
00:51:19,280 --> 00:51:21,560
Speaker 4: Andrew Thomas is out, I might just say, you know

1072
00:51:21,600 --> 00:51:25,399
Speaker 4: what you've been in concussion protocol. Body, We've seen enough.

1073
00:51:25,560 --> 00:51:28,520
Speaker 4: We'll try again next year. Let's just fold up shop,

1074
00:51:28,640 --> 00:51:31,040
Speaker 4: take a couple l's and get a draft pick, Like

1075
00:51:31,360 --> 00:51:33,680
Speaker 4: I think, that's how important that is. On the other side,

1076
00:51:33,960 --> 00:51:37,920
Speaker 4: McCarthy's injury hard to imagine that he's ready by Thursday

1077
00:51:38,000 --> 00:51:40,440
Speaker 4: on a short week Christmas game, So we're probably gonna

1078
00:51:40,440 --> 00:51:43,959
Speaker 4: get Max Brozemer on Christmas, which, by the way, that's

1079
00:51:44,040 --> 00:51:47,040
Speaker 4: one game. We might get Josh Johnson in the early

1080
00:51:47,120 --> 00:51:50,520
Speaker 4: game and then Chris Aladikin in the evening game. These

1081
00:51:50,520 --> 00:51:54,160
Speaker 4: are your quarterbacks, These are your home quarterbacks on Christmas Day.

1082
00:51:54,440 --> 00:51:58,319
Speaker 4: Congrats NFL on the scheduling. Sorry about it happening that way.

1083
00:51:58,760 --> 00:52:02,719
Speaker 4: Pretty disastrous. Honestly, if McCarthy is injured and unable to play,

1084
00:52:03,560 --> 00:52:06,720
Speaker 4: all Minnesota need to find out at this point is okay,

1085
00:52:07,000 --> 00:52:10,000
Speaker 4: where those last two good games are they real? Let's

1086
00:52:10,040 --> 00:52:12,160
Speaker 4: see it for a few more times, Let's see some

1087
00:52:12,280 --> 00:52:15,839
Speaker 4: more tape on the field. The only thing that they

1088
00:52:15,880 --> 00:52:18,759
Speaker 4: can have is just no McCarthy. We already had that

1089
00:52:19,120 --> 00:52:21,879
Speaker 4: all last season. We've already had that multiple times this year.

1090
00:52:22,600 --> 00:52:25,480
Speaker 4: The Vikings need to find out is this dude our

1091
00:52:25,520 --> 00:52:27,600
Speaker 4: starter next year or is he not? Do we have

1092
00:52:27,640 --> 00:52:31,480
Speaker 4: to go find a different solution. The worst possible answer.

1093
00:52:31,560 --> 00:52:33,400
Speaker 2: Is we don't know. We didn't get to see him

1094
00:52:33,440 --> 00:52:34,040
Speaker 2: on the field.

1095
00:52:34,480 --> 00:52:38,520
Speaker 4: So disastrous result from Minnesota if McCarthy can't go. They

1096
00:52:38,640 --> 00:52:41,560
Speaker 4: need him out there to find out. And it is

1097
00:52:41,600 --> 00:52:44,960
Speaker 4: a meaningful downgrade for the Vikings. They play the Lions

1098
00:52:44,960 --> 00:52:48,720
Speaker 4: and the Packers, who we know both need outcomes still

1099
00:52:48,760 --> 00:52:51,600
Speaker 4: to make the playoffs, So that part matters to These

1100
00:52:51,600 --> 00:52:53,960
Speaker 4: injuries should matter a lot for how you're looking at

1101
00:52:54,000 --> 00:52:56,400
Speaker 4: these two teams, and it kind of has ripple effects

1102
00:52:56,400 --> 00:52:56,880
Speaker 4: in the future.

1103
00:52:56,960 --> 00:52:58,399
Speaker 2: So that's why I want to talk about that one.

1104
00:52:59,160 --> 00:53:01,799
Speaker 3: Nothing like the yous laying one and a half having

1105
00:53:01,840 --> 00:53:05,920
Speaker 3: to go across the country without Andrew Thomas facing Max Crosby.

1106
00:53:06,040 --> 00:53:08,799
Speaker 3: Good luck with that. I'd be shocked if that one

1107
00:53:08,840 --> 00:53:11,040
Speaker 3: and a half stuck by right now, Giants laying one

1108
00:53:11,040 --> 00:53:12,880
Speaker 3: and a half. All right, I'm gonna roll through some

1109
00:53:12,920 --> 00:53:15,360
Speaker 3: scores here and then we will get to Monday night football.

1110
00:53:15,680 --> 00:53:18,359
Speaker 3: Chargers win thirty four to seventeen over the Cowboys, cover

1111
00:53:18,440 --> 00:53:20,479
Speaker 3: plus one and a half on the road, total over

1112
00:53:20,560 --> 00:53:23,120
Speaker 3: fifteen and a half. Dallas first half over is now

1113
00:53:23,200 --> 00:53:26,239
Speaker 3: fourteen and one this year, and the over hits by

1114
00:53:26,239 --> 00:53:29,840
Speaker 3: a half point in this game. Dallas eliminated obviously the

1115
00:53:29,920 --> 00:53:33,520
Speaker 3: night before. Than losing this game, Chargers, they've won four straight.

1116
00:53:33,719 --> 00:53:36,080
Speaker 3: They are now four to zero straight up as underdogs

1117
00:53:36,080 --> 00:53:38,799
Speaker 3: this year. Herbert eighteen and twelve is a dog in

1118
00:53:38,840 --> 00:53:42,879
Speaker 3: his career. Decent spot for them. Tennessee beats the Charge

1119
00:53:43,120 --> 00:53:46,919
Speaker 3: beats the Chiefs twenty six to nine, covers plus three

1120
00:53:47,000 --> 00:53:49,880
Speaker 3: on close at home total under thirty seven and a half.

1121
00:53:50,200 --> 00:53:54,200
Speaker 3: Gardner Minshew Terris is ACL. So we get Chris Aladokun

1122
00:53:54,320 --> 00:53:57,520
Speaker 3: in this game and probably at home against the Broncos

1123
00:53:57,560 --> 00:54:01,360
Speaker 3: next week. This is Casey's eighth loss a favorite outright

1124
00:54:01,400 --> 00:54:03,120
Speaker 3: this year, which is tied for the most in the

1125
00:54:03,160 --> 00:54:07,200
Speaker 3: Super Bowl era. Tennessee. Tennessee five and two against the

1126
00:54:07,239 --> 00:54:10,440
Speaker 3: spread since November first, and of course, next week this

1127
00:54:10,520 --> 00:54:13,880
Speaker 3: comes into play where Tennessee has lost eleven consecutive games,

1128
00:54:13,880 --> 00:54:16,399
Speaker 3: both straight up and against the spread. After and outright win,

1129
00:54:16,800 --> 00:54:19,520
Speaker 3: they are at home against the also up and coming

1130
00:54:19,640 --> 00:54:22,759
Speaker 3: Saints next week, which honestly could be a fun elimination

1131
00:54:22,880 --> 00:54:25,000
Speaker 3: game for the both and both eliminated, they shouldn't care,

1132
00:54:25,040 --> 00:54:27,200
Speaker 3: but both teams playing really well lately, so that would

1133
00:54:27,200 --> 00:54:31,319
Speaker 3: be a fun one to watch. Bengals beat the Dolphins,

1134
00:54:31,440 --> 00:54:33,799
Speaker 3: the lowly Dolphins. This is a tough one forty five

1135
00:54:33,920 --> 00:54:36,440
Speaker 3: twenty one cover minus three and a half on the

1136
00:54:36,520 --> 00:54:39,319
Speaker 3: road total over forty eight and a half. Cincinnati goes

1137
00:54:39,360 --> 00:54:42,680
Speaker 3: six of six in the red zone. Burrow throws four touchdowns,

1138
00:54:42,719 --> 00:54:45,960
Speaker 3: seven incompletions. He was just on fire in this one

1139
00:54:46,000 --> 00:54:48,560
Speaker 3: against the Miami secondary that just didn't feel like they

1140
00:54:48,600 --> 00:54:51,680
Speaker 3: wanted to be there. Mike Quick Daniel has scored fourteen

1141
00:54:51,680 --> 00:54:54,080
Speaker 3: career games where the Dolphins are on short rest. They're

1142
00:54:54,120 --> 00:54:57,680
Speaker 3: three and eleven in those games, losing eight straight outright.

1143
00:54:57,840 --> 00:55:00,920
Speaker 3: That is just terrible. And this probably says it all.

1144
00:55:01,000 --> 00:55:03,600
Speaker 3: McDaniel is now sixteen and twenty five against the spread

1145
00:55:03,640 --> 00:55:06,279
Speaker 3: in games with a spread of four less. Basically, when

1146
00:55:06,280 --> 00:55:08,680
Speaker 3: it's a coin flip, they're pretty damn bad. And that's

1147
00:55:08,680 --> 00:55:10,640
Speaker 3: with a lot of games with two and some without.

1148
00:55:11,080 --> 00:55:14,719
Speaker 3: All right, Jets Saints. Saints win the game twenty nine

1149
00:55:14,760 --> 00:55:17,000
Speaker 3: to six cover minus six and a half on close,

1150
00:55:17,040 --> 00:55:20,320
Speaker 3: a lot of steam there before kickoff. Total under thirty

1151
00:55:20,400 --> 00:55:23,520
Speaker 3: nine and a half. This is the Jets fifteenth straight

1152
00:55:23,560 --> 00:55:28,200
Speaker 3: game without an interception, no picks from Taysom or Shuck

1153
00:55:28,200 --> 00:55:32,080
Speaker 3: in this game, longest streak since nineteen fifty fifteen straight

1154
00:55:32,120 --> 00:55:35,759
Speaker 3: without a pick. New Orleans now twelve and three first

1155
00:55:35,800 --> 00:55:39,720
Speaker 3: quarter money line two and thirteen first quarter ats, both

1156
00:55:39,840 --> 00:55:42,120
Speaker 3: worst in the NFL after a three to three tie

1157
00:55:42,160 --> 00:55:44,279
Speaker 3: at the end of the first at New Orleans. Like

1158
00:55:44,320 --> 00:55:47,279
Speaker 3: I said before, Roland, third straight win, fourth straight cover.

1159
00:55:47,360 --> 00:55:50,040
Speaker 3: They've looked pretty well lately, and that's why Tyler Shuck's

1160
00:55:50,040 --> 00:55:54,520
Speaker 3: sitting second in offensive Rookie of the Year. Atlanta Arizona.

1161
00:55:54,840 --> 00:55:58,160
Speaker 3: Atlanta holds on twenty six nineteen covers when it's two

1162
00:55:58,200 --> 00:56:00,440
Speaker 3: and a half on the road. Total under forty eight

1163
00:56:00,480 --> 00:56:02,919
Speaker 3: and a half. Atlanta wins and covers two straight, which

1164
00:56:02,920 --> 00:56:05,520
Speaker 3: is a really nice change for them since they are

1165
00:56:05,880 --> 00:56:10,360
Speaker 3: the big alternating win loss team. Atlanta's pass rush definitely

1166
00:56:10,360 --> 00:56:12,439
Speaker 3: the story. They get two sacks today. They've now got

1167
00:56:12,520 --> 00:56:15,520
Speaker 3: fifty sacks on the season, which is five shy of

1168
00:56:15,560 --> 00:56:18,920
Speaker 3: the franchise record. They had like thirty sacks in total

1169
00:56:19,000 --> 00:56:21,600
Speaker 3: all of last year, so that is a big upgrade

1170
00:56:21,600 --> 00:56:25,279
Speaker 3: for them. And Arizona, woof their slide just continues. They're

1171
00:56:25,320 --> 00:56:28,000
Speaker 3: one and twelve straight up in their last thirteen games.

1172
00:56:28,160 --> 00:56:31,120
Speaker 3: They've lost seven in a row now, so just skidding

1173
00:56:31,160 --> 00:56:34,120
Speaker 3: down the stretch. Probably worth seeing how many players start

1174
00:56:34,120 --> 00:56:36,160
Speaker 3: playing these last two weeks for them, or maybe if

1175
00:56:36,160 --> 00:56:38,800
Speaker 3: they start sitting out the McBride's and such, we will see.

1176
00:56:39,440 --> 00:56:43,000
Speaker 3: And then finally an unreal close game. I mean this

1177
00:56:43,320 --> 00:56:46,080
Speaker 3: almost went up about seven or eight spots in our rundown,

1178
00:56:46,400 --> 00:56:51,400
Speaker 3: but Houston survives twenty three to twenty one against the Raiders.

1179
00:56:51,800 --> 00:56:55,200
Speaker 3: Vegas covers the massive fourteen and a half points spread.

1180
00:56:55,440 --> 00:56:58,720
Speaker 3: The total goes over thirty nine and a half. Here's

1181
00:56:58,760 --> 00:57:02,200
Speaker 3: the stats. So since two eleven, we've seen one hundred

1182
00:57:02,200 --> 00:57:06,160
Speaker 3: and thirteen games with a spread of fourteen plus points.

1183
00:57:06,440 --> 00:57:09,560
Speaker 3: This is just the second where an underdog won or

1184
00:57:09,600 --> 00:57:12,360
Speaker 3: lost by three points or less and had more yards

1185
00:57:12,400 --> 00:57:15,319
Speaker 3: and rushing yards in their opponent. The other one that

1186
00:57:15,480 --> 00:57:18,240
Speaker 3: Jaguars win against the Colts in Week eighteen of twenty

1187
00:57:18,280 --> 00:57:23,600
Speaker 3: twenty one. So that is how what's the word? It's

1188
00:57:23,600 --> 00:57:26,120
Speaker 3: just this is how close this game was and how

1189
00:57:26,200 --> 00:57:29,160
Speaker 3: much better Vegas looked a lot of the time. I mean,

1190
00:57:29,200 --> 00:57:32,439
Speaker 3: Houston's offense was really sputtering a lot of this game.

1191
00:57:33,160 --> 00:57:35,560
Speaker 3: And I'll leave you with this. With the Raiders and

1192
00:57:35,600 --> 00:57:39,280
Speaker 3: Bengals covering today, teams off a shutout, now thirty seven

1193
00:57:39,360 --> 00:57:42,800
Speaker 3: and seventeen against the spread since twenty fifteen and seven

1194
00:57:42,840 --> 00:57:46,040
Speaker 3: to oh this season, so interesting enough. The bounce back

1195
00:57:46,080 --> 00:57:48,360
Speaker 3: has been good there all right, Now, before we get

1196
00:57:48,360 --> 00:57:50,160
Speaker 3: to Monday night football, if you'd like to tell some

1197
00:57:50,200 --> 00:57:52,600
Speaker 3: of the bets we're about to discuss, find the quick

1198
00:57:52,600 --> 00:57:55,920
Speaker 3: slip link in the podcast and video description, or visit

1199
00:57:56,160 --> 00:57:59,240
Speaker 3: actionework dot com slash bet now. You can also look

1200
00:57:59,280 --> 00:58:01,200
Speaker 3: in the live YouTube chat. If you're still hanging out

1201
00:58:01,200 --> 00:58:03,640
Speaker 3: with us, We're even better. Sign up for Action Pro.

1202
00:58:03,800 --> 00:58:06,240
Speaker 3: Action Pro users get real time alerts as soon as

1203
00:58:06,280 --> 00:58:10,280
Speaker 3: experts like stuck ba the Chris Raybond track picks. In

1204
00:58:10,320 --> 00:58:13,320
Speaker 3: the app, you'll also get real time money percentages to

1205
00:58:13,360 --> 00:58:16,200
Speaker 3: see where the smart money is flowing, and access to

1206
00:58:16,240 --> 00:58:20,919
Speaker 3: our NFL player prop projections and live prop projections during games,

1207
00:58:20,920 --> 00:58:24,080
Speaker 3: which is awesome to use. Powered by Sean Kerner. Just

1208
00:58:24,080 --> 00:58:26,560
Speaker 3: go to actionework dot com slash pro to get started

1209
00:58:26,560 --> 00:58:29,840
Speaker 3: and use promo code Pod twenty for twenty dollars off

1210
00:58:29,880 --> 00:58:33,920
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1211
00:58:33,960 --> 00:58:37,760
Speaker 3: dollars off and Actionnetwork dot Com slash Pro. I have

1212
00:58:37,840 --> 00:58:41,440
Speaker 3: been talking way too much Monday Night Football. Brandon Anderson

1213
00:58:41,600 --> 00:58:51,720
Speaker 3: forty nine Ers, Colts take it Away.

1214
00:58:52,080 --> 00:58:54,120
Speaker 4: I like the Colts. I tease this one on our

1215
00:58:54,120 --> 00:58:57,080
Speaker 4: best best episode. I think this is the Phillip River

1216
00:58:57,240 --> 00:58:59,960
Speaker 4: is a miracle of Christmas that we've been waiting for.

1217
00:59:00,120 --> 00:59:02,720
Speaker 4: Or look, the Niners suddenly alive for the one seed

1218
00:59:02,840 --> 00:59:05,080
Speaker 4: so they can tell their destiny if they went out

1219
00:59:05,160 --> 00:59:09,600
Speaker 4: Chicago Seattle, they're the one seed. Pretty shocking. Season metrics

1220
00:59:09,600 --> 00:59:11,360
Speaker 4: don't help us a lot here because obviously the Colts

1221
00:59:11,400 --> 00:59:14,360
Speaker 4: are very differently in team. The Niners, though bottom eight

1222
00:59:14,360 --> 00:59:17,080
Speaker 4: by defense on the season, bottom eight run in.

1223
00:59:17,240 --> 00:59:18,960
Speaker 2: Past TVOA not great.

1224
00:59:19,800 --> 00:59:23,280
Speaker 4: I actually have this line way off, Like I think

1225
00:59:23,360 --> 00:59:25,880
Speaker 4: the Niners being five and a half six point favorites

1226
00:59:26,040 --> 00:59:28,600
Speaker 4: is just so far off where things ought to be.

1227
00:59:29,120 --> 00:59:31,800
Speaker 4: My numbers have the Colts still favored here. And to

1228
00:59:31,880 --> 00:59:35,960
Speaker 4: be clear, my numbers are very heavily roster oriented, not

1229
00:59:36,080 --> 00:59:38,919
Speaker 4: just outcomes. So it's not like it's not factoring in. Well,

1230
00:59:38,920 --> 00:59:41,120
Speaker 4: did you know Philip Rivers is the cornerback? Now, yeah,

1231
00:59:41,160 --> 00:59:43,920
Speaker 4: I'm aware that Philip Rivers is playing. I'm aware that

1232
00:59:43,960 --> 00:59:47,840
Speaker 4: the corners are out. That's all factoring in. DeForest Buckner

1233
00:59:47,920 --> 00:59:49,640
Speaker 4: is not out. He's back, and I think that is

1234
00:59:49,680 --> 00:59:51,760
Speaker 4: a big swing for the Colts. He I think is

1235
00:59:51,800 --> 00:59:54,520
Speaker 4: their best defender, at least the most important defender. The

1236
00:59:54,600 --> 00:59:57,360
Speaker 4: corners are still out, but I'm not sure the Niners

1237
00:59:57,360 --> 00:59:59,560
Speaker 4: can really hurt those corners as much.

1238
00:59:59,480 --> 01:00:00,480
Speaker 2: As they should be able to.

1239
01:00:00,600 --> 01:00:03,720
Speaker 4: Ricky Piersolla is out and they haven't had great receivers

1240
01:00:03,760 --> 01:00:06,720
Speaker 4: to be able to hurt corners downfield. So I think

1241
01:00:06,720 --> 01:00:09,320
Speaker 4: the Colts defense maybe can hang a little bit top

1242
01:00:09,360 --> 01:00:12,360
Speaker 4: five this season against under center plays and motion plays.

1243
01:00:12,720 --> 01:00:14,640
Speaker 4: That's a lot of what San Francisco does as much

1244
01:00:14,640 --> 01:00:18,720
Speaker 4: as anyone, motion especially and Colts are number one against

1245
01:00:18,720 --> 01:00:23,680
Speaker 4: inside run defensively, the Niners are thirty first on EPA

1246
01:00:23,720 --> 01:00:26,360
Speaker 4: per play on outside runs. So I think the Colts

1247
01:00:26,680 --> 01:00:28,840
Speaker 4: can limit the run game. Niners have not run it

1248
01:00:28,880 --> 01:00:31,040
Speaker 4: that well anyways, and kind of keep it in check.

1249
01:00:31,720 --> 01:00:33,880
Speaker 4: Maybe get some field goals. Teeing you up for your

1250
01:00:33,880 --> 01:00:36,320
Speaker 4: bets here. But on the other side, I think the

1251
01:00:36,360 --> 01:00:39,760
Speaker 4: big thing here is that, look, we saw Rivers in

1252
01:00:39,800 --> 01:00:44,160
Speaker 4: the offense move the ball and get some points against Seattle.

1253
01:00:44,600 --> 01:00:47,480
Speaker 4: All right, how about the Niners instead, who are missing

1254
01:00:47,600 --> 01:00:50,480
Speaker 4: all their best guys on defense. We've talked all year long.

1255
01:00:50,760 --> 01:00:53,720
Speaker 4: There's just not a lot of talent they're including. No

1256
01:00:53,880 --> 01:00:57,120
Speaker 4: pass rush, they're not getting after the quarterback. This is

1257
01:00:57,160 --> 01:00:59,680
Speaker 4: a very different experience for Philip Rivers. Now a whole

1258
01:00:59,680 --> 01:01:03,240
Speaker 4: week to practice and settle in rather than being retired

1259
01:01:03,240 --> 01:01:06,520
Speaker 4: for half of the week. But also no pass rush,

1260
01:01:06,720 --> 01:01:09,120
Speaker 4: so he's gonna actually have some time to get some

1261
01:01:09,280 --> 01:01:12,400
Speaker 4: zip on the ball, maybe get the guys open. I

1262
01:01:12,440 --> 01:01:14,439
Speaker 4: think Jonathan Taylor should be able to run a little

1263
01:01:14,440 --> 01:01:17,720
Speaker 4: bit on this defense. Tyler warrenback is a big boon

1264
01:01:17,800 --> 01:01:21,640
Speaker 4: as well, both blocking and as a tight end receiving downfield.

1265
01:01:22,280 --> 01:01:26,600
Speaker 4: I think Colt's success this year is not all about

1266
01:01:26,720 --> 01:01:30,160
Speaker 4: Daniel Jones. Daniel Jones has been the part of the

1267
01:01:30,200 --> 01:01:33,760
Speaker 4: success of the Colts, being number two on the season,

1268
01:01:33,800 --> 01:01:37,720
Speaker 4: still in success rate, number one in explosives. That's Shane Steichen,

1269
01:01:37,880 --> 01:01:42,200
Speaker 4: that scheme, that's blocking, it's Jonathan Taylor, it's the whole process.

1270
01:01:42,680 --> 01:01:46,280
Speaker 4: And quite frankly, I'm not Connvince Daniel Jones. Is that

1271
01:01:46,400 --> 01:01:48,400
Speaker 4: much of an upgrade, if at all, an upgrade on

1272
01:01:48,480 --> 01:01:51,080
Speaker 4: what Philip Rivers can be for this team? Maybe I'll

1273
01:01:51,080 --> 01:01:53,360
Speaker 4: look dumb for that. Rivers is still forty four in

1274
01:01:53,400 --> 01:01:55,600
Speaker 4: a Grandpa. Maybe we're just kind of waiting for that

1275
01:01:55,640 --> 01:01:59,680
Speaker 4: to happen. But Niners thirtieth success rate on defense, bottom

1276
01:01:59,680 --> 01:02:04,000
Speaker 4: ten explosives. I think they can get beaten defensively this game.

1277
01:02:04,200 --> 01:02:06,360
Speaker 4: I think they can get beaten outright. So I'm just

1278
01:02:06,440 --> 01:02:09,480
Speaker 4: going straight to the money line. I don't want a

1279
01:02:09,520 --> 01:02:12,120
Speaker 4: cover here. I think if you like the Niners, you

1280
01:02:12,120 --> 01:02:15,040
Speaker 4: should bet Alts. I think maybe Rivers turns into a

1281
01:02:15,040 --> 01:02:17,560
Speaker 4: pumpkin and this all ends very badly. If you like

1282
01:02:17,600 --> 01:02:19,880
Speaker 4: San fran I get it. I like the Colts, and

1283
01:02:19,880 --> 01:02:22,000
Speaker 4: I'm gonna bet them to win plus two forty five

1284
01:02:22,040 --> 01:02:24,280
Speaker 4: on the money line or best you can find. I

1285
01:02:24,400 --> 01:02:26,880
Speaker 4: really believe that this is the spot that we get

1286
01:02:26,920 --> 01:02:29,880
Speaker 4: the story we all want. Philip Rivers comes back to

1287
01:02:29,880 --> 01:02:32,880
Speaker 4: the NFL five years away, goes to Monday night, we

1288
01:02:33,000 --> 01:02:34,680
Speaker 4: all watch, and he gets the win.

1289
01:02:34,800 --> 01:02:36,400
Speaker 2: I think it's happening well.

1290
01:02:36,400 --> 01:02:38,160
Speaker 3: If the Colts win this game, it makes the playoff

1291
01:02:38,160 --> 01:02:41,400
Speaker 3: picture much more interesting heading into Week seventeen. A loss

1292
01:02:41,400 --> 01:02:43,960
Speaker 3: here I believe solidifies a few things, so we will

1293
01:02:43,960 --> 01:02:47,120
Speaker 3: see how that goes. I mean, since Purdy came back

1294
01:02:47,240 --> 01:02:50,360
Speaker 3: from injury in replacing Mac, therefour to oh straight up

1295
01:02:50,400 --> 01:02:52,400
Speaker 3: and against the spread, winning by double digits in each game,

1296
01:02:52,440 --> 01:02:57,439
Speaker 3: they've looked good. But I agree that Buckner back does

1297
01:02:57,520 --> 01:02:59,240
Speaker 3: kind of lead to the bets that I like. In

1298
01:02:59,280 --> 01:03:01,760
Speaker 3: this one. I'm seeing some field goals. I'm looking at

1299
01:03:01,760 --> 01:03:04,120
Speaker 3: the vision and I'm seeing field goals, and the way

1300
01:03:04,120 --> 01:03:07,000
Speaker 3: I'm attacking this is I kind of like San Francisco

1301
01:03:07,040 --> 01:03:09,640
Speaker 3: field goals. Because I am with you, I don't have

1302
01:03:09,840 --> 01:03:12,760
Speaker 3: complete faith in San Francisco's offense. I do like the

1303
01:03:12,840 --> 01:03:15,680
Speaker 3: addition back of Buckner. I understand the corners are out,

1304
01:03:15,840 --> 01:03:17,760
Speaker 3: but there also is no peersal. I think there's some

1305
01:03:17,840 --> 01:03:20,680
Speaker 3: evening out there, so I took Pinero over one and

1306
01:03:20,720 --> 01:03:23,560
Speaker 3: a half field goals Pinero over seven and a half

1307
01:03:23,600 --> 01:03:26,400
Speaker 3: kick points. I like both teams to hit a thirty

1308
01:03:26,440 --> 01:03:29,680
Speaker 3: three plus yarder. Indoors also helps with that one, And

1309
01:03:29,680 --> 01:03:32,160
Speaker 3: this one I think is actually really interesting. Over one

1310
01:03:32,200 --> 01:03:34,480
Speaker 3: and a half field goals second half is plus one ten,

1311
01:03:34,840 --> 01:03:36,960
Speaker 3: which to me actually feels kind of interesting in a

1312
01:03:37,000 --> 01:03:40,320
Speaker 3: close game. So I'm all field going. That is the

1313
01:03:40,360 --> 01:03:43,000
Speaker 3: direction I'm heading in this one. Any thoughts on that

1314
01:03:43,120 --> 01:03:44,480
Speaker 3: or anything else with this one?

1315
01:03:44,840 --> 01:03:47,200
Speaker 4: Yeah, I think the field goals make sense here. I

1316
01:03:47,200 --> 01:03:49,640
Speaker 4: think we're gonna get some scores, but maybe you know

1317
01:03:49,840 --> 01:03:52,200
Speaker 4: you love a kicker in fantasy if they're gonna move

1318
01:03:52,200 --> 01:03:54,160
Speaker 4: the ball, but maybe stall when they get there. So

1319
01:03:54,240 --> 01:03:55,640
Speaker 4: I think the Manners are going to move the ball.

1320
01:03:55,640 --> 01:03:57,960
Speaker 4: I think we're gonna get points both ways, So that

1321
01:03:58,000 --> 01:04:01,440
Speaker 4: makes sense. I honestly almost came in here with an

1322
01:04:01,600 --> 01:04:04,960
Speaker 4: escalator of my bet on Colts playoff ticket. The problem

1323
01:04:05,080 --> 01:04:07,080
Speaker 4: is the rest of the AFC did not really help

1324
01:04:07,120 --> 01:04:10,720
Speaker 4: out today. I thought Jacksonville might lose. Texans look like

1325
01:04:10,760 --> 01:04:14,400
Speaker 4: they might lose for a bit. Instead the Chargers. I

1326
01:04:14,440 --> 01:04:17,280
Speaker 4: thought the Chargers could lose to the Cowboys. They were underdogs.

1327
01:04:17,680 --> 01:04:20,640
Speaker 4: All those teams won, so India's still not out there.

1328
01:04:20,720 --> 01:04:23,400
Speaker 4: I think the market is basically counting them dead and

1329
01:04:23,440 --> 01:04:26,480
Speaker 4: that's what we're seeing the line too. By the Athletic odds,

1330
01:04:26,480 --> 01:04:28,840
Speaker 4: if Colts went out, there's still eighty six percent to

1331
01:04:28,840 --> 01:04:30,720
Speaker 4: make the playoffs, which I don't think we're really crediting

1332
01:04:30,760 --> 01:04:33,360
Speaker 4: them for now. They got to beat the Niners, Jaguars

1333
01:04:33,400 --> 01:04:36,000
Speaker 4: and Texans, so maybe that's the reason it's not going

1334
01:04:36,080 --> 01:04:38,920
Speaker 4: to be easy. But I think that they're alive. If

1335
01:04:38,960 --> 01:04:41,800
Speaker 4: they do that three and zero. They basically need one

1336
01:04:41,880 --> 01:04:45,560
Speaker 4: last from either the Chargers, Jaguars or Texans in these

1337
01:04:45,640 --> 01:04:48,080
Speaker 4: last couple of weeks and then they're in suddenly.

1338
01:04:48,520 --> 01:04:51,120
Speaker 2: And who knows in this wild AFC, we keep saying,

1339
01:04:51,120 --> 01:04:55,400
Speaker 2: who's the team in the AFC? Maybe could it possibly

1340
01:04:55,440 --> 01:04:56,080
Speaker 2: be the Colts?

1341
01:04:56,120 --> 01:04:58,840
Speaker 4: Like it sounds crazy, but the odds are going to

1342
01:04:58,920 --> 01:05:02,120
Speaker 4: reflect it being crazy. A well, the Athletic has the

1343
01:05:02,160 --> 01:05:04,320
Speaker 4: Colts right now only three percent to make the playoffs.

1344
01:05:04,320 --> 01:05:07,160
Speaker 4: So I haven't seen new playoff odds because obviously the

1345
01:05:07,200 --> 01:05:09,919
Speaker 4: AFC just got shaken up as we hit record here.

1346
01:05:10,560 --> 01:05:13,640
Speaker 4: But I probably need something like twenty to one or

1347
01:05:13,680 --> 01:05:16,600
Speaker 4: longer to nibble a playoff ticket. I haven't seen a

1348
01:05:16,680 --> 01:05:19,280
Speaker 4: number for it. But this is not the last we're

1349
01:05:19,280 --> 01:05:21,200
Speaker 4: talking about the Colts today. We're getting to the hot read.

1350
01:05:21,240 --> 01:05:22,960
Speaker 4: I will be on Colts again next week.

1351
01:05:23,760 --> 01:05:25,720
Speaker 3: Yeah. If you're rooting for chaos next week, root for

1352
01:05:25,720 --> 01:05:27,400
Speaker 3: the Colts money line in this one again. If you

1353
01:05:27,400 --> 01:05:29,320
Speaker 3: want to tell some of these money night football bets,

1354
01:05:29,480 --> 01:05:30,920
Speaker 3: make sure to look for the quick slip in the

1355
01:05:31,080 --> 01:05:33,600
Speaker 3: podcast and video description or go to action. Eric dot

1356
01:05:33,600 --> 01:05:37,040
Speaker 3: com slash bet now talked about this earlier No Best

1357
01:05:37,040 --> 01:05:38,960
Speaker 3: Bets episode next week, so we are going to give

1358
01:05:38,960 --> 01:05:42,200
Speaker 3: you some more hot read action BA. What else do

1359
01:05:42,200 --> 01:05:42,960
Speaker 3: you do in next week?

1360
01:05:43,160 --> 01:05:46,880
Speaker 2: Hot wrap on ice rights?

1361
01:05:47,120 --> 01:05:47,720
Speaker 1: Ice cream?

1362
01:05:48,840 --> 01:05:49,360
Speaker 3: How real?

1363
01:05:49,440 --> 01:05:49,960
Speaker 1: Sultry?

1364
01:05:53,280 --> 01:05:54,280
Speaker 2: Yeah, I just teed it up.

1365
01:05:54,320 --> 01:05:57,600
Speaker 4: Give me the Colts Colts plus seven against the Jaguars.

1366
01:05:58,040 --> 01:06:00,040
Speaker 4: If I like the Colts on Monday Night and it

1367
01:06:00,120 --> 01:06:02,520
Speaker 4: hasn't happened yet, if I like the value there, if

1368
01:06:02,560 --> 01:06:04,600
Speaker 4: I like them as long underdogs, I have to like

1369
01:06:04,640 --> 01:06:09,600
Speaker 4: them next week as well, especially at plus seven. Again,

1370
01:06:10,160 --> 01:06:12,120
Speaker 4: my numbers might take a beating and need a lot

1371
01:06:12,120 --> 01:06:14,680
Speaker 4: of readjusting after Monday Night, but right now I have

1372
01:06:14,760 --> 01:06:18,280
Speaker 4: the Colts favored in this matchup, also against Jacksonville, even

1373
01:06:18,320 --> 01:06:21,840
Speaker 4: after moving Jacksonville up in my metrics after a good performance,

1374
01:06:21,880 --> 01:06:24,800
Speaker 4: and look, let's start here. The Colts have covered three

1375
01:06:24,840 --> 01:06:28,400
Speaker 4: of twenty one against Jacksonville, so not exactly the spot

1376
01:06:28,440 --> 01:06:30,880
Speaker 4: I like to back Indianapolis. And I will say I

1377
01:06:30,920 --> 01:06:33,640
Speaker 4: don't like the matchup as much as Sunday night. Jacksonville's

1378
01:06:33,680 --> 01:06:37,200
Speaker 4: defense way different than San Francisco, way better the run

1379
01:06:37,200 --> 01:06:40,800
Speaker 4: defense you talked about that they if they control Jonathan Taylor,

1380
01:06:41,080 --> 01:06:43,200
Speaker 4: suddenly it's a lot more on rivers and Jacksonville is

1381
01:06:43,240 --> 01:06:45,960
Speaker 4: a lot more pass rush as well, so it's definitely

1382
01:06:46,000 --> 01:06:49,280
Speaker 4: not as soft of a matchup offensively for them. I'm

1383
01:06:49,280 --> 01:06:52,560
Speaker 4: still not totally sold on Jacksonville's offense. Though they're running

1384
01:06:52,640 --> 01:06:55,439
Speaker 4: very poorly, They're not going to run on Indianapolis here.

1385
01:06:55,800 --> 01:06:59,680
Speaker 4: And I think again Buckner's return is huge. Jacksonville's old

1386
01:06:59,760 --> 01:07:03,280
Speaker 4: line is not good, and I think Buckner a lot too.

1387
01:07:03,320 --> 01:07:06,240
Speaker 4: Some of those guys can get after the quarterback. And

1388
01:07:06,880 --> 01:07:09,520
Speaker 4: I also we saw a Sauce Gardner listened as questionable

1389
01:07:09,560 --> 01:07:11,880
Speaker 4: and probably out for this week, But that tells me

1390
01:07:11,920 --> 01:07:13,880
Speaker 4: maybe next week he actually is able to come back,

1391
01:07:13,920 --> 01:07:15,880
Speaker 4: like he could be in the mix here if they

1392
01:07:15,960 --> 01:07:18,320
Speaker 4: win Monday Night and are still in the mix as well.

1393
01:07:18,680 --> 01:07:21,200
Speaker 4: And then we had this stat a while back, teams

1394
01:07:21,200 --> 01:07:24,560
Speaker 4: that visit Denver are now ozero to seven ats the

1395
01:07:24,560 --> 01:07:27,360
Speaker 4: following week. We added that number this weekend as well.

1396
01:07:27,680 --> 01:07:30,320
Speaker 4: I just think it is a cell high spot on

1397
01:07:30,440 --> 01:07:33,120
Speaker 4: Jacksonville after a big win. They're so red hot.

1398
01:07:33,160 --> 01:07:34,800
Speaker 2: It's the team you don't want to bet against, but

1399
01:07:34,840 --> 01:07:36,800
Speaker 2: sometimes that's exactly what you have to.

1400
01:07:37,000 --> 01:07:40,439
Speaker 4: So Colts plus seven the money line is plus two

1401
01:07:40,480 --> 01:07:42,880
Speaker 4: seventy five. It's gonna be a lot tougher on the

1402
01:07:42,880 --> 01:07:45,680
Speaker 4: money line. To me, that's probably more they cover the

1403
01:07:45,760 --> 01:07:50,040
Speaker 4: number at the full touchdown. And again, I'm gonna play

1404
01:07:50,040 --> 01:07:53,320
Speaker 4: before Monday Night. And yes, it's clearly correlated because the

1405
01:07:53,320 --> 01:07:55,840
Speaker 4: Colts might be out and Rivers might be a pumpkin again.

1406
01:07:56,000 --> 01:07:58,080
Speaker 4: So if you don't like my Monday Night cap, you

1407
01:07:58,120 --> 01:08:00,880
Speaker 4: should like this one even less I like it. So

1408
01:08:00,880 --> 01:08:03,760
Speaker 4: I'm gonna trust my instinct and go for both of them.

1409
01:08:04,120 --> 01:08:06,400
Speaker 3: Yeah. I was talking on the favorites earlier to Kendrick Middleton,

1410
01:08:06,400 --> 01:08:09,800
Speaker 3: who was obviously a massive Jaguars fan, and I said, ooh,

1411
01:08:10,040 --> 01:08:12,160
Speaker 3: Colts Jags next week. I kind of like the seven.

1412
01:08:12,280 --> 01:08:14,240
Speaker 3: She said, can you at least give me five minutes

1413
01:08:14,280 --> 01:08:16,960
Speaker 3: to enjoy the Denver win. So I agree with you.

1414
01:08:17,200 --> 01:08:18,000
Speaker 3: What's your next pick.

1415
01:08:18,600 --> 01:08:21,240
Speaker 4: I'm gonna go over fifty one and a half Cardinals

1416
01:08:21,280 --> 01:08:24,920
Speaker 4: and Bengals. Obviously both teams already eliminated. But man, if

1417
01:08:24,960 --> 01:08:26,880
Speaker 4: you're in your fantasy Super Bowl, I hope you got

1418
01:08:26,880 --> 01:08:29,599
Speaker 4: guys in this game because we're going to see Trey

1419
01:08:29,680 --> 01:08:32,360
Speaker 4: McBride against like the worst tight end defense in history.

1420
01:08:32,600 --> 01:08:35,320
Speaker 4: We're gonna see runners, We're gonna see passes. I would

1421
01:08:35,400 --> 01:08:37,559
Speaker 4: lean Cardinals with the full seven of this one. That

1422
01:08:37,640 --> 01:08:40,080
Speaker 4: line feels pretty high. Cards have only lost way more

1423
01:08:40,080 --> 01:08:43,040
Speaker 4: than a touchdown four times this season, lots of close losses,

1424
01:08:43,360 --> 01:08:46,280
Speaker 4: but really, to me, this is running back last week's

1425
01:08:46,320 --> 01:08:48,960
Speaker 4: hot read. We took a Cardinals over, we got forty

1426
01:08:49,000 --> 01:08:50,479
Speaker 4: five and a half, We ended up with.

1427
01:08:50,479 --> 01:08:53,080
Speaker 2: The whole field goal of clv in Man.

1428
01:08:53,439 --> 01:08:57,400
Speaker 4: Nobody cares because our listeners care, but out there in

1429
01:08:57,439 --> 01:08:59,760
Speaker 4: the rest of the world, this wasn't even close to

1430
01:08:59,800 --> 01:09:00,479
Speaker 4: going over.

1431
01:09:00,600 --> 01:09:02,920
Speaker 2: On where the line ended, I thought we had a

1432
01:09:02,960 --> 01:09:03,519
Speaker 2: brutal beat.

1433
01:09:03,560 --> 01:09:05,439
Speaker 4: I thought that was an over all the way today

1434
01:09:05,720 --> 01:09:08,240
Speaker 4: that Cardinals game, in that game which we ended up

1435
01:09:08,240 --> 01:09:10,120
Speaker 4: getting hooked on the forty five and a half, they

1436
01:09:10,160 --> 01:09:11,120
Speaker 4: ended up forty five.

1437
01:09:11,439 --> 01:09:14,240
Speaker 2: There was a missed extra point, there were two miss field.

1438
01:09:14,000 --> 01:09:17,160
Speaker 4: Goals, and there were six made field goals, so we

1439
01:09:17,160 --> 01:09:19,280
Speaker 4: had eight field goal attempts. We kept selling for field

1440
01:09:19,320 --> 01:09:21,360
Speaker 4: goals in the red zone. They're moving the ball all game.

1441
01:09:21,760 --> 01:09:24,040
Speaker 4: Probably I thought that game should have been more like

1442
01:09:24,080 --> 01:09:26,479
Speaker 4: sixty points. I think this one might be too. So

1443
01:09:26,600 --> 01:09:29,240
Speaker 4: Bengals defense terrible. You don't need me to tell you

1444
01:09:29,280 --> 01:09:32,360
Speaker 4: that they have now played shootout games with the following

1445
01:09:32,360 --> 01:09:36,360
Speaker 4: totals fifty eight, sixty one, sixty four, sixty eight, seventy three,

1446
01:09:36,439 --> 01:09:40,160
Speaker 4: seventy seven and eighty nine points in Bengals games, including

1447
01:09:40,200 --> 01:09:43,000
Speaker 4: one of those. Was today last in the NFL in

1448
01:09:43,040 --> 01:09:45,120
Speaker 4: points per game allowed, over thirty one a game entering

1449
01:09:45,160 --> 01:09:48,679
Speaker 4: the weekend, Cardinals defense falling apart to last seven Cardinals

1450
01:09:48,720 --> 01:09:51,679
Speaker 4: games almost fifty five points a game on the total

1451
01:09:52,040 --> 01:09:54,679
Speaker 4: five of seven at fifty one or more. And again

1452
01:09:54,760 --> 01:09:56,639
Speaker 4: the same cap we said for the one last week.

1453
01:09:57,200 --> 01:10:01,840
Speaker 4: Arizona with Brissette, fastest tempo the league, pass heaviest team

1454
01:10:01,840 --> 01:10:02,400
Speaker 4: in the league.

1455
01:10:02,680 --> 01:10:05,120
Speaker 2: So we're gonna get passing, passing, passing.

1456
01:10:04,800 --> 01:10:07,439
Speaker 4: From both sides here, We're gonna have plenty of chances

1457
01:10:07,439 --> 01:10:09,960
Speaker 4: for both the score and they're going to I don't

1458
01:10:09,960 --> 01:10:12,080
Speaker 4: see any way the States blow fifty four. That's the

1459
01:10:12,120 --> 01:10:15,280
Speaker 4: last kind of key number on totals. It's already rising quickly.

1460
01:10:15,760 --> 01:10:19,480
Speaker 4: This is also to me like a full scale escalator.

1461
01:10:19,800 --> 01:10:23,360
Speaker 4: Grab a sixty, grab a seventy. What's the highest number

1462
01:10:23,360 --> 01:10:25,240
Speaker 4: you can find out a book? We might get there.

1463
01:10:25,560 --> 01:10:29,120
Speaker 4: Kind of remind remember the old Mexico City Rams and

1464
01:10:29,479 --> 01:10:32,080
Speaker 4: Chiefs game from a while back. Now, I feel like

1465
01:10:32,160 --> 01:10:34,960
Speaker 4: we could get like the Homeless Man's version of that

1466
01:10:35,080 --> 01:10:38,280
Speaker 4: game here and just like obliterate fantasy lineups with like

1467
01:10:38,320 --> 01:10:41,439
Speaker 4: a fifty one forty nine game or something ridiculous, and

1468
01:10:41,920 --> 01:10:44,000
Speaker 4: just give me the over on Cardinals Bengals.

1469
01:10:44,479 --> 01:10:46,200
Speaker 3: Yeah, I was gonna say this over under has jumped

1470
01:10:46,200 --> 01:10:49,040
Speaker 3: into the elevator and hit the roof, because it's it's

1471
01:10:49,040 --> 01:10:51,360
Speaker 3: going up a lot right now. All right, So no

1472
01:10:51,439 --> 01:10:54,080
Speaker 3: best best this week? We got Christmas Saturday, we got

1473
01:10:54,120 --> 01:10:56,240
Speaker 3: Thursday games. I'm surprised the NFL didn't throw a game

1474
01:10:56,280 --> 01:10:59,519
Speaker 3: on Wednesday because this slate's absolutely ridiculous. But give us

1475
01:10:59,560 --> 01:11:01,880
Speaker 3: some more bad we need more bets. Throw it to us.

1476
01:11:02,120 --> 01:11:04,520
Speaker 4: Yeah, so tough to give you too much on Christmas.

1477
01:11:04,520 --> 01:11:07,400
Speaker 4: We mentioned Josh Johnson probably in the first one, Max

1478
01:11:07,520 --> 01:11:09,679
Speaker 4: Rosmer Chris alatikin.

1479
01:11:09,400 --> 01:11:10,360
Speaker 2: A couple of thoughts.

1480
01:11:10,800 --> 01:11:14,599
Speaker 4: Chiefs plus twelve and a half is disgusting, but that's

1481
01:11:14,640 --> 01:11:18,000
Speaker 4: like a touchdown off of how I'd priced that game. Look,

1482
01:11:18,080 --> 01:11:20,760
Speaker 4: we saw Chiefs Broncos last year, Week eighteen, and the

1483
01:11:20,840 --> 01:11:23,280
Speaker 4: Chiefs lost by one thousand to nothing, So it's gonna

1484
01:11:23,280 --> 01:11:25,479
Speaker 4: be hard to bet that one, but my number is

1485
01:11:25,479 --> 01:11:28,160
Speaker 4: gonna begging me on the Chiefs in that game. Otherwise,

1486
01:11:29,000 --> 01:11:33,040
Speaker 4: Brown has absolutely shredded Brian Flores's defense, so that smells

1487
01:11:33,040 --> 01:11:35,640
Speaker 4: like a Christmas escalator play to me, and we know

1488
01:11:35,720 --> 01:11:38,160
Speaker 4: that need to go to him often, So not too

1489
01:11:38,200 --> 01:11:41,160
Speaker 4: much else on Christmas. I do like on Saturday, hot

1490
01:11:41,200 --> 01:11:45,000
Speaker 4: reed bonus Texans money line plus one hundred at the

1491
01:11:45,080 --> 01:11:49,800
Speaker 4: Chargers season one metrics pretty even on these teams offenses

1492
01:11:49,840 --> 01:11:52,960
Speaker 4: twenty first and twenty second, Houston a little better on defense,

1493
01:11:53,000 --> 01:11:56,040
Speaker 4: definitely better on special teams. We know about the Chargers.

1494
01:11:56,080 --> 01:11:58,640
Speaker 4: Not exactly home field advantage to me, though. The key

1495
01:11:58,720 --> 01:12:00,960
Speaker 4: here is that offenses are going in the directions here.

1496
01:12:01,320 --> 01:12:04,680
Speaker 4: Texans offense not great yet, certainly not great today do

1497
01:12:04,800 --> 01:12:07,920
Speaker 4: not bet the Texans off of today, but the pass

1498
01:12:08,040 --> 01:12:11,960
Speaker 4: offense is improving, Jesse Minter is gonna be a tough test. Defensively,

1499
01:12:12,320 --> 01:12:14,400
Speaker 4: the Chargers are playing a well but a little bit

1500
01:12:14,439 --> 01:12:17,760
Speaker 4: better shape there with the Chargers, though, don't be thrown

1501
01:12:17,800 --> 01:12:20,920
Speaker 4: off by a Chargers beating up on Dallas offensively. Everybody

1502
01:12:20,960 --> 01:12:23,720
Speaker 4: does that to Dallas previous six games. So that the

1503
01:12:23,800 --> 01:12:26,479
Speaker 4: Chargers are at bottom of five offense by DVA, bottom

1504
01:12:26,560 --> 01:12:29,840
Speaker 4: ten run and pass. Their line is in shambles and

1505
01:12:30,000 --> 01:12:33,160
Speaker 4: now is up against Will Anderson and Daniel Hunter, and

1506
01:12:33,240 --> 01:12:34,720
Speaker 4: I just don't see a lot of way for the

1507
01:12:34,800 --> 01:12:38,200
Speaker 4: Chargers to score much here. I'd lean under forty and

1508
01:12:38,200 --> 01:12:41,400
Speaker 4: a half forty wherever the line is at Chargers four

1509
01:12:41,400 --> 01:12:44,000
Speaker 4: of the last six forty one or below. Houston now

1510
01:12:44,040 --> 01:12:46,439
Speaker 4: ten games at forty two or below. So if it

1511
01:12:46,479 --> 01:12:48,960
Speaker 4: is low scoring, I'm going to take the defense I

1512
01:12:49,040 --> 01:12:51,880
Speaker 4: like more, and frankly probably the offense I like more

1513
01:12:52,040 --> 01:12:54,200
Speaker 4: right now as well. So I think it's a good

1514
01:12:54,200 --> 01:12:58,200
Speaker 4: spot for the Texans. Demiko sixteen percent ROI as a

1515
01:12:58,240 --> 01:12:59,400
Speaker 4: money line underdog.

1516
01:12:59,800 --> 01:13:01,120
Speaker 2: And here's a good stat for you.

1517
01:13:01,160 --> 01:13:04,679
Speaker 4: Since twenty ten, teams that won by seventeen or more

1518
01:13:04,920 --> 01:13:07,760
Speaker 4: as underdogs of seven or less. That would be the

1519
01:13:07,840 --> 01:13:11,400
Speaker 4: Chargers here sixty eight one, twenty one and three ats

1520
01:13:11,439 --> 01:13:14,479
Speaker 4: the following game, so thirty six percent. I like the

1521
01:13:14,520 --> 01:13:17,879
Speaker 4: Texans plus one hundred. It's an even odds money line.

1522
01:13:18,120 --> 01:13:19,679
Speaker 4: If you got a plus one and a half out

1523
01:13:19,680 --> 01:13:21,280
Speaker 4: there and you want to grab that, I'm good with

1524
01:13:21,320 --> 01:13:22,200
Speaker 4: that one as well.

1525
01:13:22,600 --> 01:13:24,360
Speaker 2: I think they probably end up favorite here.

1526
01:13:24,400 --> 01:13:27,960
Speaker 4: And look, if Houston wins and the Colts beat the

1527
01:13:28,040 --> 01:13:31,240
Speaker 4: Jaguars our pick we just gave out, the Texans can

1528
01:13:31,240 --> 01:13:33,040
Speaker 4: win the division still with the head to head win

1529
01:13:33,400 --> 01:13:35,479
Speaker 4: and even gate as far as the three or two

1530
01:13:35,520 --> 01:13:38,720
Speaker 4: seeds still. So if you like what I'm smelling here,

1531
01:13:38,760 --> 01:13:41,040
Speaker 4: if you like the Colts to be live in these games,

1532
01:13:41,360 --> 01:13:43,920
Speaker 4: and if you like Houston here, you might need to

1533
01:13:43,920 --> 01:13:46,880
Speaker 4: be thinking futures. And I don't mean just division futures either.

1534
01:13:47,280 --> 01:13:50,639
Speaker 4: Houston is really good and if there's suddenly the two

1535
01:13:50,720 --> 01:13:53,200
Speaker 4: or the three seed, that might actually be like your

1536
01:13:53,240 --> 01:13:55,360
Speaker 4: AFC favorite by the time we get to the playoffs

1537
01:13:55,360 --> 01:13:57,800
Speaker 4: in a couple of weeks. So that's the pick I love.

1538
01:13:57,840 --> 01:14:01,960
Speaker 4: On Saturday, the night game Saturday, no lines yet it's

1539
01:14:02,040 --> 01:14:04,040
Speaker 4: Ravens Packers, and we don't really know who's going to

1540
01:14:04,080 --> 01:14:04,840
Speaker 4: be playing.

1541
01:14:05,040 --> 01:14:07,880
Speaker 2: Hopefully Lamar, Hopefully Love. We don't know.

1542
01:14:08,520 --> 01:14:11,760
Speaker 4: I think even if they play this just screams like

1543
01:14:11,920 --> 01:14:17,479
Speaker 4: playoff atmosphere, cold Run, heavy Defense Forward. I'm looking to

1544
01:14:17,479 --> 01:14:20,639
Speaker 4: grab an under wherever line I can find here, because man,

1545
01:14:21,040 --> 01:14:24,320
Speaker 4: if we get Tyler Huntley and Malik Willis, you can't.

1546
01:14:24,040 --> 01:14:25,519
Speaker 2: Set the total low enough for me.

1547
01:14:26,040 --> 01:14:28,800
Speaker 4: Those guys are combined twelve and three to the under

1548
01:14:29,040 --> 01:14:31,639
Speaker 4: when the total is below forty four in their career,

1549
01:14:31,840 --> 01:14:34,920
Speaker 4: so eighty percent of the under. If it's those two,

1550
01:14:34,920 --> 01:14:37,720
Speaker 4: it's going to be dropping quickly, So I would be

1551
01:14:37,760 --> 01:14:39,919
Speaker 4: willing to grab an under as soon as it posts

1552
01:14:40,120 --> 01:14:44,120
Speaker 4: anything north of forty four. Otherwise, watch for Huntley and Willis.

1553
01:14:44,200 --> 01:14:46,280
Speaker 4: If we get both of those guys, mind shafts season

1554
01:14:46,320 --> 01:14:48,960
Speaker 4: all the way like Under all the way down on

1555
01:14:49,040 --> 01:14:52,639
Speaker 4: Huntley versus Willis on Saturday Night. And then one last note,

1556
01:14:52,920 --> 01:14:55,960
Speaker 4: we gave out the look Ahead Packers Browns as a

1557
01:14:55,960 --> 01:14:58,439
Speaker 4: money line parlay. We ended up not being able to

1558
01:14:58,479 --> 01:15:00,600
Speaker 4: play it yet as Jordan Love got hurt, so they

1559
01:15:00,680 --> 01:15:03,000
Speaker 4: pulled that one off the board. But keep an eye

1560
01:15:03,040 --> 01:15:05,160
Speaker 4: out there as well. Again We've said this a few times.

1561
01:15:05,680 --> 01:15:08,880
Speaker 4: If the Ravens lose to the Packers, the Steelers game

1562
01:15:08,920 --> 01:15:11,759
Speaker 4: doesn't matter anymore, and so maybe the Browns win that one,

1563
01:15:12,000 --> 01:15:14,240
Speaker 4: and in evily you're gonna get a mispriced money line

1564
01:15:14,400 --> 01:15:16,799
Speaker 4: the way that goes. So if you think the Packers

1565
01:15:16,800 --> 01:15:19,960
Speaker 4: can beat the Ravens, factoring in a Browns money line,

1566
01:15:20,000 --> 01:15:22,840
Speaker 4: parley into that. Again, no price yet, because we have

1567
01:15:22,880 --> 01:15:26,639
Speaker 4: lines for this game. But that Saturday night game gets

1568
01:15:26,840 --> 01:15:29,880
Speaker 4: very weird and funky and very interesting. Now, so I'm

1569
01:15:29,880 --> 01:15:32,840
Speaker 4: looking under and maybe a parlay with the Browns and

1570
01:15:33,080 --> 01:15:35,879
Speaker 4: kind of see if the Ravens just kind of finally

1571
01:15:35,880 --> 01:15:38,160
Speaker 4: pull the plug on the season, that might be it,

1572
01:15:38,280 --> 01:15:39,880
Speaker 4: and maybe the Browns get one over to.

1573
01:15:40,680 --> 01:15:42,439
Speaker 3: Yeah, for what it's worth, and again, we have no

1574
01:15:42,520 --> 01:15:45,280
Speaker 3: idea who's actually starting in this game. DraftKings did post

1575
01:15:45,320 --> 01:15:47,200
Speaker 3: a line within the last like ten or fifteen minutes,

1576
01:15:47,280 --> 01:15:49,599
Speaker 3: but it is who the heck knows. It's Green Bay

1577
01:15:49,680 --> 01:15:52,240
Speaker 3: mis two and a half at forty and a half. Obviously,

1578
01:15:52,520 --> 01:15:55,000
Speaker 3: any news with the quarterbacks in probably moves the line

1579
01:15:55,000 --> 01:15:57,559
Speaker 3: one direction, but that is what they're currently sitting on

1580
01:15:57,640 --> 01:15:58,000
Speaker 3: right now.

1581
01:15:58,080 --> 01:16:01,320
Speaker 4: For what it's worth, I don't mind under forty and

1582
01:16:01,360 --> 01:16:04,559
Speaker 4: a half, I may not run to grab a forty

1583
01:16:04,560 --> 01:16:06,920
Speaker 4: and a half just because it could go back up

1584
01:16:06,960 --> 01:16:09,760
Speaker 4: and we get some positive quarterback news. I think it

1585
01:16:09,840 --> 01:16:12,439
Speaker 4: was forty five and a half this morning, so it's

1586
01:16:12,479 --> 01:16:14,439
Speaker 4: hard to know what that means. That might be aheadge

1587
01:16:14,520 --> 01:16:16,280
Speaker 4: or it might also be that books know a little

1588
01:16:16,280 --> 01:16:19,479
Speaker 4: bit more than we do already are assuming either both

1589
01:16:19,520 --> 01:16:22,240
Speaker 4: these quarterbacks don't go, so definitely want.

1590
01:16:22,120 --> 01:16:22,880
Speaker 2: To keep an eye on.

1591
01:16:23,280 --> 01:16:25,920
Speaker 4: If anything, I might be more aggressive to bet alts

1592
01:16:25,960 --> 01:16:27,760
Speaker 4: and kind of skip, but if it ends up like

1593
01:16:27,840 --> 01:16:31,000
Speaker 4: at forty, I might just go real low. And because

1594
01:16:31,040 --> 01:16:34,080
Speaker 4: even if Love or Lamar or both play, who knows

1595
01:16:34,120 --> 01:16:36,920
Speaker 4: if they finish the game with those injuries, and maybe

1596
01:16:36,920 --> 01:16:39,360
Speaker 4: you need end up seeing Huntley and Willis anyways, So

1597
01:16:39,720 --> 01:16:41,760
Speaker 4: look how many and Willis are fine quarterbacks, but it's

1598
01:16:41,760 --> 01:16:43,720
Speaker 4: going to mean a lot of running the football and

1599
01:16:43,760 --> 01:16:46,439
Speaker 4: a lot of just low scoring long drives.

1600
01:16:46,840 --> 01:16:48,800
Speaker 2: So keep an eye out, watch.

1601
01:16:48,560 --> 01:16:50,439
Speaker 4: For the under and if you get a good price

1602
01:16:50,439 --> 01:16:52,400
Speaker 4: out there, you see a stray number at your book,

1603
01:16:52,439 --> 01:16:53,400
Speaker 4: definitely pull the trigger.

1604
01:16:54,280 --> 01:16:56,519
Speaker 3: And the most important thing is both teams really really

1605
01:16:56,560 --> 01:16:58,800
Speaker 3: need the game, all right. That'll do it. Here on

1606
01:16:58,840 --> 01:17:01,720
Speaker 3: the action of our podcast for our NFL Week sixteen

1607
01:17:01,760 --> 01:17:04,519
Speaker 3: recap episode presented by DraftKings. Give us a lick on

1608
01:17:04,560 --> 01:17:07,280
Speaker 3: the YouTube video. We always appreciate it. If you haven't yet,

1609
01:17:07,560 --> 01:17:09,720
Speaker 3: check out our new AI quick Slipbot on X. Just

1610
01:17:09,760 --> 01:17:12,599
Speaker 3: tag Playbook at Playbook tell to grab whatever bet you're

1611
01:17:12,600 --> 01:17:15,000
Speaker 3: looking forward. It'll create a quick slip link for you

1612
01:17:15,080 --> 01:17:18,360
Speaker 3: in a matter of seconds on X Super Super Easy.

1613
01:17:18,680 --> 01:17:21,799
Speaker 3: We'll be back for Action Island for Monday Night Football's

1614
01:17:21,800 --> 01:17:24,559
Speaker 3: game right here between the Niners and the Colts on

1615
01:17:24,640 --> 01:17:27,000
Speaker 3: Action number two two page, as well as more NFL

1616
01:17:27,040 --> 01:17:29,680
Speaker 3: best bets from Brandon, the six Pack from Raybond and

1617
01:17:29,720 --> 01:17:33,200
Speaker 3: Stuck Anytime Touchdowns and more on the podcast feed for

1618
01:17:33,280 --> 01:17:35,880
Speaker 3: next week. Thank you for listening, Good luck with all

1619
01:17:35,920 --> 01:17:37,679
Speaker 3: your bets, Enjoy your week.

1620
01:17:37,720 --> 01:17:50,720
Speaker 1: Everybody.

1621
01:17:53,880 --> 01:17:58,439
Speaker 3: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

1622
01:17:58,439 --> 01:18:01,240
Speaker 3: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is

1623
01:18:01,240 --> 01:18:04,360
Speaker 3: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler