Speaker 1: From Bloomberg News and I Heart Radio. It's the big take.
Speaker 1: I'm Westkasova today. Heat or eat? That is the challenge
Speaker 1: a lot of people will face this winter. Here's the
Speaker 1: thought experiment. It's the middle winter and you can't afford
Speaker 1: to pay for both heat and electricity. Which do you
Speaker 1: stop paying? First? The lights, the stove, maybe the furnace.
Speaker 1: This is the real life choice people in the UK
Speaker 1: and parts of Europe will have to make this winter
Speaker 1: and in the years ahead. Fallout from Russia's invasion of Ukraine,
Speaker 1: along with poor government planning and a lot of other
Speaker 1: economic pressures, have driven up the price of fuel for
Speaker 1: homes and businesses. Earlier this year, Europe was looking at
Speaker 1: shortages and possible power outages. Those are some angry UK
Speaker 1: citizens protesting soaring fuel costs. In October, the UK and
Speaker 1: governments across Europe rolled out fuel price supports to try
Speaker 1: to keep millions of households from falling into what's called
Speaker 1: fuel poverty. The good news is the weather has been
Speaker 1: warmer than expected, and a big influx of natural gas
Speaker 1: from other places has largely filled Europe's energy reserves and
Speaker 1: tamp down prizes, at least for now. But a cold
Speaker 1: snap could change all that, and even if Europe escapes
Speaker 1: the worst of it this winter, shortages are all but
Speaker 1: certain in the years ahead. And by the way, this
Speaker 1: problem it's not going to stop in Europe. The rest
Speaker 1: of the world, including the US, is looking at rising
Speaker 1: energy prices and shortfalls down the road. To sort all
Speaker 1: this out, my colleague Rachel Morrison joins me from London.
Speaker 1: She leaves Bloomberg's energy coverage in the UK and across Europe. Rachel,
Speaker 1: earlier this year, the UK and other governments in Europe
Speaker 1: we're getting ready for a disaster of a winner. They
Speaker 1: were struggling to find enough fuel and those fears have
Speaker 1: come down a bit, but I don't think we can
Speaker 1: say they're in the clear just yet. Can you spell
Speaker 1: out exactly what happened that caused energy prices to spike
Speaker 1: so much? Well, the UK is very dependent on gas.
Speaker 1: We get about thirty eight percent of our electricity from gas.
Speaker 1: Our homes are heated by gas. So when Russia cut
Speaker 1: off gas supplies along the nord Stream pipeline recently, that
Speaker 1: affected the UK market, and even before that, Russia was
Speaker 1: slowly squeezing supplies to Europe and pushing up prices, and
Speaker 1: we've had really a phenomenal increase in gas prices, which
Speaker 1: has a knock on effect to electricity prices. That's affected
Speaker 1: the UK in lots of different ways. We've seen the
Speaker 1: economic impact with rising inflation, and we've seen the industrial
Speaker 1: impact with industries having to shut and reduce operations because
Speaker 1: energy bills are just so high. And then also for households,
Speaker 1: it's really become so expensive that the government has had
Speaker 1: to come in and help people with bills because it
Speaker 1: was just getting to the point where they were really
Speaker 1: worried that this winter people wouldn't be able to pay
Speaker 1: their bills, wouldn't be able to heat their homes. Rachel,
Speaker 1: it seems like a lot of this really started as
Speaker 1: sort of Domino's tumbling once Russia invaded Ukraine. How much
Speaker 1: of this is directly related to that, and how much
Speaker 1: of this is just another symptom of a larger problem
Speaker 1: that was always going to present itself in one way
Speaker 1: or another. In many ways, for those of us in
Speaker 1: the energy industry or observing the crisis started before Russia
Speaker 1: invaded Ukraine. We could see that coming out of the
Speaker 1: Corona virus lockdowns, demand bouncing back quicker than anticipated, and
Speaker 1: that was causing prices to rise already. And then when
Speaker 1: the war started and gas became weaponized, and the reality
Speaker 1: is the only thing that's certain now is a Russia
Speaker 1: is now engaging in gas as geopolitical weapon, and this
Speaker 1: is e skeletor so. Russia obviously knows that Europe is
Speaker 1: a huge customer for gas. And on one hand, Russia
Speaker 1: gets a lot of revenue from Europe for for all
Speaker 1: of its energy products, and that is a big driver
Speaker 1: of why they wanted to keep you know, some supply
Speaker 1: coming to Europe. But also, you know, Vladimir Putin knows
Speaker 1: that it's a huge weak spot for Europe. The G
Speaker 1: seven leaders agreed to implement a price cap on Russian oil,
Speaker 1: intriguing time and gas from reversed plans to resume gas
Speaker 1: flows through the North String pipeline. EU energy ministers are
Speaker 1: now preparing for an emergency meeting. He's really used flows
Speaker 1: of gas as a way to punish Europe for sanctions,
Speaker 1: and he's said that, and his government has said that,
Speaker 1: and gas Prom, the Russian energy company, have explained that,
Speaker 1: and so it's become completely politicized and it's not really
Speaker 1: so much about gas flows, but it's about squeezing Europe
Speaker 1: and trying to get something back, you know, some softening
Speaker 1: of sanctions and some help which Europe has stood fast
Speaker 1: and hasn't given into. So there's the short term problem
Speaker 1: of what's going to happen this winter, but maybe even
Speaker 1: more difficult is the long term challenge of finding enough
Speaker 1: new sources of energy so if one of them is
Speaker 1: cut off for whatever reason, the whole citizen doesn't just
Speaker 1: come apart. Yes, we are thinking a lot about the
Speaker 1: kind of long term in the short term and what
Speaker 1: this war on Ukraine means for energy supplies, and in
Speaker 1: the short term, you know, the UK is trying to
Speaker 1: shore up energy supplies. So one of the things that
Speaker 1: the government has decided to do is to keep several
Speaker 1: coal units available this winter, so to make sure that
Speaker 1: if there isn't enough gas to use for power generation,
Speaker 1: that we have alternative sources because it might not be
Speaker 1: that windy, but that really underscores the situation that we're
Speaker 1: in that it's any source you can find. That is
Speaker 1: what all politicians need to make sure that their lights
Speaker 1: stay on, that the citizens are warm this winter, because
Speaker 1: that would be a political disaster if you have to
Speaker 1: explain to people under your watch why those things weren't
Speaker 1: available to them. And that is the situation that we're in.
Speaker 1: We don't we can't say for certain that there aren't
Speaker 1: going to be black earthes um in certain parts. We
Speaker 1: know that National Grid are drawing up plan ends for
Speaker 1: what they will do and how they will handle things
Speaker 1: if there isn't enough gas, which industries they will cut off,
Speaker 1: how they'll deal with households. And while those plans have
Speaker 1: always been there in the background, it's quite frightening to
Speaker 1: see them being drawn up and with some urgency for
Speaker 1: this winter, because that's really the situation that we're in.
Speaker 1: The UK and France, Germany, Italy other countries have stepped
Speaker 1: in with fuel price caps and other kinds of support
Speaker 1: for businesses that are getting crushed by high fuel prices
Speaker 1: and also for families that are being clavered with high inflation,
Speaker 1: to try and help them through. It has become very
Speaker 1: very expensive for households, even with some of the government
Speaker 1: aid to help, which is essentially a freeze on wholesale prices.
Speaker 1: We heard last year, you know, prices were already high
Speaker 1: and they'll be much worse that food banks and people
Speaker 1: didn't want to take root vegetables because they took too
Speaker 1: long to cook. Because they were thinking about their energy
Speaker 1: use in so many different ways, from how much water
Speaker 1: you use to wash the dishes, trying to do that
Speaker 1: only every three days so you could use less hot water,
Speaker 1: how often you shower, how long you shower for you know,
Speaker 1: heating every single room in your house, turning radiators off,
Speaker 1: things that you know are dangerous for people with health conditions.
Speaker 1: The price caps have helped, but even with this help,
Speaker 1: you've written that charity groups say millions of UK households
Speaker 1: are still being pushed into fuel party, which I mentioned
Speaker 1: at the tab of the show. Can you tell us
Speaker 1: what is fuel party? The definition of fuel poverty is
Speaker 1: where a household spends ten percent or more of their
Speaker 1: total income on energy. So even with the government package,
Speaker 1: charities still put that figure at six point seven million,
Speaker 1: and that's up forty nine from a year ago, so
Speaker 1: we can see that the situation is getting worse for
Speaker 1: household Our producer Frederica Roman yellow as people in learning
Speaker 1: how they were feeling about winter coming, and they did
Speaker 1: not hold back. I'm absolutely disgusted with the way, Uh,
Speaker 1: the energy bills are about to go up. I am
Speaker 1: a pension and my husband is also a pensioner. I'm
Speaker 1: in a very insecure job which may end, so I'm
Speaker 1: absolutely terrified. I know I cannot pay five pounds a month.
Speaker 1: My grandpa he um, he's been watching TV by candle
Speaker 1: light because he's worried about turning his his lights on.
Speaker 1: I am. I am worried, but even primarily to even
Speaker 1: put the heat on, because I'm like, oh, I don't
Speaker 1: want to be Charles any builds and even a bit
Speaker 1: like randomly you can just get like even like, oh,
Speaker 1: your debt's gonna be doubled or might it's going to
Speaker 1: be double, and it's like, I think so unstable. Racial course,
Speaker 1: not everyone is exactly crying over high energy prices. The
Speaker 1: energy industry is doing pretty well. They're banking big profits.
Speaker 1: Is anyone questioning what their responsibility is in all of this? Yes,
Speaker 1: there's an interesting dynamic. If you sell oil, gas or
Speaker 1: electricity made from renewable sources or something but the sort
Speaker 1: of fixed cost, then you are making a lot of
Speaker 1: money from high prices because you know, particularly for renewable generators,
Speaker 1: they don't have fuel costs as such, and they're just
Speaker 1: selling electricity into a high priced market. So that has
Speaker 1: been a big issue that has seen a lot of criticism.
Speaker 1: But this idea is also spilling into Europe. The kind
Speaker 1: of mismatch of some companies doing really well out of
Speaker 1: the crisis and returning a lot of cash to shareholders
Speaker 1: while people can't heat their homes, and the kind of
Speaker 1: unfairness of that. Conversation with Rachel Morrison continues right after
Speaker 1: the break with your in the middle of its worst
Speaker 1: energy crisis in decades, politicians are being forced, as we mentioned,
Speaker 1: to look at those tonsis the kinds of ideas that
Speaker 1: are being floated. They were unthinkable until very recently, but
Speaker 1: they kind of hark back to the nineties seventies, Rachel.
Speaker 1: Thanks to generally healthy energy reserves at the moment and
Speaker 1: mild weather which means people aren't using as much to
Speaker 1: heat their houses, the worst fears about this winner eased
Speaker 1: up a bit, but if things get cold or there's
Speaker 1: dip in supply, that could change pretty quickly. As we've
Speaker 1: just heard in those news clubs, governments are getting ready
Speaker 1: for the worst, and one extreme example you've written about
Speaker 1: is the UK making plans for organized blackouts, which is
Speaker 1: essentially energy rationing, is there right, Yes, that is the
Speaker 1: way that the grids would deal with an energy shortage.
Speaker 1: I mean, if we can paint the picture that it's
Speaker 1: perhaps a cold, dark day in December, there's not very
Speaker 1: much wind, and there's a lot of demand on the system.
Speaker 1: Everybody's got their lights on, their heating on, you know,
Speaker 1: they're coming home and turning the oven on to cook.
Speaker 1: And at that point a power station trips and that means,
Speaker 1: you know, it doesn't generate. That's when National Grid, who
Speaker 1: manages the electricity system, will sort of kick in with
Speaker 1: their plan to deal with that. So there are various
Speaker 1: steps that they take before the need for an organized
Speaker 1: or a rolling black arts. So first of all, they
Speaker 1: put a notice out to the market asking for more supply.
Speaker 1: If that doesn't happen, then they need to take some
Speaker 1: action to reduce demand, and that can take lots of
Speaker 1: different forms. They have agreed contracts with come Pannese and
Speaker 1: with industry which they can trigger to say we need
Speaker 1: you to do what you said you would do which
Speaker 1: has reduced demand, and we pay you for it. And
Speaker 1: if all of these tools don't work, this sort of
Speaker 1: final thing that they may have to do, and they
Speaker 1: have outlined this is take action to cut power to
Speaker 1: households and this would happen. National Grid outlined in the
Speaker 1: document that we saw that if there wasn't enough gas
Speaker 1: for power generation, so it's less likely to be home heating,
Speaker 1: but it's more likely to be we don't have enough electricity,
Speaker 1: and a kind of planned blackout would be different regions
Speaker 1: being asked to use electricity at a certain time. So
Speaker 1: you're told which our or you know two hours you
Speaker 1: will not have electricity for so you can plan for that,
Speaker 1: you can have candles, you can make sure that you
Speaker 1: know you're prepared, and then each region takes it in
Speaker 1: turn to use electricity and then to have no electricity,
Speaker 1: so that everybody sort of gets just one one period
Speaker 1: of blackout and that's an organized blackout and that you know,
Speaker 1: it's quite extreme, but a lot more manageable than the
Speaker 1: whole system going down, which is probably quite unlikely because
Speaker 1: of some of these tools that the grid has to
Speaker 1: kind of manage things. That's just an a stonishing thing
Speaker 1: to imagine happening in the UK in it really is,
Speaker 1: and then you sort of hear some of the tips
Speaker 1: that companies have for people to use less energy. You know,
Speaker 1: wear an extra jumper, and you think, is that really
Speaker 1: going to help in the kind of face of a
Speaker 1: rolling blackout. Are the UK and European government's working together
Speaker 1: to meddle through this crisis or is this a situation
Speaker 1: where it's every nation for itself. This is one of
Speaker 1: my favorite topics because I think it could be a
Speaker 1: massive curveball this winter that while we're all sort of
Speaker 1: thinking about ourselves, we forget that, particularly on the electricity side,
Speaker 1: Europe is one big connected grid and that was what
Speaker 1: we wanted. That was part of the push for the
Speaker 1: single energy market in Europe. The idea being with these
Speaker 1: huge power cables that connect markets. So the UK has
Speaker 1: a cable to Norway, so the idea is that when
Speaker 1: it's super windy in the UK, we are sending excess
Speaker 1: electricity to Norway. They have a lot of hydro which
Speaker 1: we don't have, and they have very low power prices
Speaker 1: so they can send us or they're clean hydro power.
Speaker 1: But what happens when everybody has a crunch and at
Speaker 1: that point, you know, it becomes a political decision. What
Speaker 1: do you do and if one country starts turning its
Speaker 1: into connectors off, does that mean everybody will and does
Speaker 1: the whole system kind of come unraveled? And yeah, I'm
Speaker 1: really interested to see whether that solidarity principle can hold together.
Speaker 1: You know, earlier in our conversation you had said that
Speaker 1: the government is anticipating that this energy crisis could wind
Speaker 1: up pushing through next year and into the following winter.
Speaker 1: Do you have any idea to do the governments have
Speaker 1: any idea about how long we can expect this to last.
Speaker 1: We are are hearing that one of the ways that
Speaker 1: Europe is trying to replace Russian gas is by getting
Speaker 1: more supplies of l n G that's liquefied natural gas,
Speaker 1: and we only have a certain number of import terminals,
Speaker 1: so there are lots of plans to build more of those,
Speaker 1: but that can't be done overnight, so a lot of
Speaker 1: those won't come online or become available until six So
Speaker 1: that is really the point that people think there can
Speaker 1: be a physical solving of this if everything else stays
Speaker 1: the same. If we don't get Russian gas back again
Speaker 1: along nord stream and this infrastructure isn't available until then,
Speaker 1: things are going to be tricky for a number of years,
Speaker 1: and why next winter is already looking so difficult is
Speaker 1: because this year we filled up our gas storage with
Speaker 1: Russian gas. We were getting Russian gas and we are
Speaker 1: now at good levels of storage. But next year we
Speaker 1: probably won't have those flows to fill up the storage,
Speaker 1: so that's going to be more difficult, which is going
Speaker 1: to put us in a more difficult position ahead of
Speaker 1: next winter. So it really rolls on and we can
Speaker 1: already see that sort of being anticipated in prices. Rachel,
Speaker 1: thanks so much for being here after the break. How
Speaker 1: governments around the world are bracing for an unforgiving energy future.
Speaker 1: Ros Mathison overseas Bloomberg's government coverage around the world, and
Speaker 1: she joins me now from London, want to ask you,
Speaker 1: is the energy uncertainty we're seeing in the UK and
Speaker 1: Europe a sign of things to come for the rest
Speaker 1: of us? Is it just a matter of time before
Speaker 1: people all over the world starts seeing similar shortages and
Speaker 1: price wings. So obviously this is something that is getting
Speaker 1: most of the focus in Europe and the US, and
Speaker 1: it seems to be this question, really, will there be
Speaker 1: an energy crisis in Europe in winter? Will that spread
Speaker 1: elsewhere around the world. But it is really a problem
Speaker 1: that is destined to spread because as countries really try
Speaker 1: and scramble to secure energy supply, they're going to be
Speaker 1: trampling over each other to do so. And so you
Speaker 1: can see this is a problem. It's going to go
Speaker 1: everywhere because as more countries reach out to get supply
Speaker 1: in Europe, they're pushing other countries out of the way,
Speaker 1: particularly by trying to get supply in places like North Africa.
Speaker 1: So then you have Asian countries, for example, saying, well,
Speaker 1: where am i in the pie on this? Where am
Speaker 1: I in the line? Um? The thing that worries me
Speaker 1: is not so much this winter in a way, because
Speaker 1: you have France and other countries saying that they've got
Speaker 1: their supply for the winter, their storage tanks are full.
Speaker 1: It's the next winter that could be the real problem
Speaker 1: and the one after that, because where are they going
Speaker 1: to get the energy for that. We can't imagine that
Speaker 1: pipelines from Russia will be resuming any time in the
Speaker 1: foreseeable future. There's limited supply from elsewhere. So we get
Speaker 1: through this winter, but then where do we go and
Speaker 1: how far does that spread again? So that's when I
Speaker 1: think you might see it going far beyond Europe and
Speaker 1: into places like the US and further appeals. One thing
Speaker 1: we just heard from Rachel is that countries in Europe
Speaker 1: share across borders different forms of energy, and if one
Speaker 1: has more of one kind, they'll share it and it
Speaker 1: goes back and forth in that way. But if they
Speaker 1: become concerned that they won't have enough, there's the risk
Speaker 1: that one country will turn it off and that will
Speaker 1: have this domino effect. Are you starting to see any
Speaker 1: sort of friction in that system, Well, it's early days,
Speaker 1: but we are seeing some signs of it. And I'm
Speaker 1: always loath to use the per word protection is M
Speaker 1: because it gets applied very quickly two different scenarios. But
Speaker 1: we have seen protection is M emerged in past history
Speaker 1: in other sectors and with far less crisis going on
Speaker 1: around the world to underpin it around you know, food
Speaker 1: supply and so on, and you see countries start to
Speaker 1: say we're not going to export our products anymore, We're
Speaker 1: going to hold onto them where we are. And what
Speaker 1: we're going to see on energy, perhaps in that scramble
Speaker 1: again into next winter to secure supply, is that you
Speaker 1: may see some jostling that begins, and we've seen little
Speaker 1: bits of that already. We saw some of it in
Speaker 1: North Africa because we saw France and Spain and other
Speaker 1: countries busily rushing into North Africa to try and get
Speaker 1: commitments on supply, and some accusations that you know, the
Speaker 1: Spanish in particular, are being pushed out of the way
Speaker 1: from existing contracts as a result, and that was sort
Speaker 1: of just around the edges. You can imagine that if
Speaker 1: they really start to worry about how they're going to
Speaker 1: go next winter, they will start to compete with each
Speaker 1: other because in the end of the day, each country
Speaker 1: really will be thinking about its own citizens and its
Speaker 1: own businesses, right. I mean, we've seen a lot of
Speaker 1: European countries, especially Germany, to a very dependent on supplies
Speaker 1: from Russia, having a very difficult time. In say the
Speaker 1: United States an ocean away, or in Latin America, the
Speaker 1: equation is different because they are aren't as dependent on
Speaker 1: Russian sources of fuel, and yet they don't seem entirely
Speaker 1: immune from a similar sort of thing happening. Well, that's right.
Speaker 1: You can take the UK as an example there, because
Speaker 1: the UK is actually far less reliant on Russian gas
Speaker 1: than other parts of Europe, particularly Germany you mentioned is
Speaker 1: the biggest one of all, but the amount that the
Speaker 1: UK relies on it is a lot smaller. In the
Speaker 1: early days of this conflict in Ukraine, in fact, UK
Speaker 1: was sort of trumpeting that quite loudly. There are alleged
Speaker 1: self sufficiency on gas. And yet you look at the
Speaker 1: UK right now and a lot of concern about poverty
Speaker 1: for people who can't afford these energy bills into winter.
Speaker 1: And so even a country like the UK, which is
Speaker 1: fairly immune from Russian gas, is feeling the effects. And
Speaker 1: it's obviously much closer to Russia than the US is.
Speaker 1: But we'd use that as an example to argue that
Speaker 1: the US probably needs to be paying very close attention
Speaker 1: to this because it can sneak up very quickly. And
Speaker 1: we saw of course President Joe Biden in the US
Speaker 1: meeting with the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia to try
Speaker 1: to get them to keep the flows open, and was
Speaker 1: not met with great success there. Well, that's right, and
Speaker 1: we're wondering in the White House how much they might
Speaker 1: be regretting that trip at this point, given it was
Speaker 1: done with such fanfare. He went there specifically to try
Speaker 1: and get something from the Saudi Crown Prince, and he
Speaker 1: really had to make a good wile gesture to do so.
Speaker 1: He went to Saudi Soil, he met him there. That's
Speaker 1: after years of the Saudi Crown Prince being seen as
Speaker 1: something of a pariah on the global stage for some
Speaker 1: of his behaviors at home and in the region, and
Speaker 1: to get nothing out of it. Um. So certainly it
Speaker 1: does raise questions about how much the US can go
Speaker 1: out there and affect and control supply and through that
Speaker 1: control prices. Let's turn to Asia for a second. Um,
Speaker 1: an enormous consumer of energy of all kinds. Um. They
Speaker 1: have been somewhat isolated from this, and yet like the US,
Speaker 1: they can't exactly rest easy. Well, that's right, and you
Speaker 1: can see how China has been quite willing to keep
Speaker 1: doing some business with Russia and all of this, certainly
Speaker 1: on the energy side, because China really needs its economy
Speaker 1: ticking over, and so does the rest of the world. Actually,
Speaker 1: given the size of the Chinese economy, they do invested
Speaker 1: interests in the success of China. But you can see
Speaker 1: that the president See Jing Ping, really wants to put
Speaker 1: his economy in a more stable footing. So he's willing
Speaker 1: to fire up coal plants whatever it takes to get
Speaker 1: his economy moving and to sustain it. And so he's
Speaker 1: quite willing to keep buying energy from Russia. But beyond that,
Speaker 1: you also see India in all of this. India has
Speaker 1: been extremely willing to keep doing business with Russia, perhaps
Speaker 1: even more so than China. And you can see a
Speaker 1: very kind of I guess pragmatic for one of a
Speaker 1: better word, stance being taken by the India leadership to
Speaker 1: do that. So if I ask you to look into
Speaker 1: rises magic crystal ball as somebody who thinks about government
Speaker 1: policy around the world every day, Um, what do you
Speaker 1: think the answer is? And I suppose it's now a
Speaker 1: one size of it's all answer. It's a really interesting
Speaker 1: and difficult question. I guess. I come back to the
Speaker 1: idea that in the end, governments are beholden to their voters,
Speaker 1: and that's probably their primary concern is getting frankly reelected.
Speaker 1: And many election cycles are particularly short these days, and
Speaker 1: government's never seemed to stop campaigning, And so does that
Speaker 1: mean that first and foremost it is that reality of well,
Speaker 1: we need to stay popular, we need to take care
Speaker 1: of our people. We need to show them that we're
Speaker 1: providing for them um and giving them opportunity, economic stability,
Speaker 1: jobs and so on. So in that case, do you
Speaker 1: go left and back to dirty energy because you just
Speaker 1: need growth and factories working and people in jobs. Possibly
Speaker 1: in some places, frankly, that could be the imperative. Thanks
Speaker 1: a million for being here. Always great to talk to you.
Speaker 1: Thank you, thanks for listening to us here at The
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