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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News.

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Speaker 2: Hello and welcome to another episode of the Odd Lots Podcast.

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Speaker 3: I'm Joe Wisenthal and I'm Tracy Alloway.

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Speaker 4: I have a.

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Speaker 2: Personal question for you this time. All right, do you

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Speaker 2: think of yourself as like a member of the global elite?

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Speaker 3: Like are you? Do you consider yourself elite?

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Speaker 5: I probably should in some ways, because I think a

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Speaker 5: lot of people would say someone who grew up in

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Speaker 5: different countries, went to international schools, went to I guess

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Speaker 5: a high profile university now works in the liberal media,

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Speaker 5: as people would say, would be like a classic elite.

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Speaker 5: But does anyone ever actually think of themselves as the elite?

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Speaker 1: Now?

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Speaker 2: I try to, you know that it could maintains journalistic unbiased.

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Speaker 2: And I would say, look, Jared, Tracy, they are clearly

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Speaker 2: among the elite. They have good jobs at a Fortune

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Speaker 2: five hundred company. They are among the most well educated

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Speaker 2: demographic to ever exist in history. We get to work

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Speaker 2: in a nice air condition of office, et cetera. On

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Speaker 2: the other hand, you know, I could say, like, look,

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Speaker 2: that's nice. The real elite are big tech CEOs, et cetera.

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Speaker 5: But I look, I think everything's relative.

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Speaker 2: I'm we're an elite, I think objectively speaking, but I

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Speaker 2: also think I've been I was thinking about this. There's

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Speaker 2: really three big things that I think are like if

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Speaker 2: we think about the second the rest of our lives

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Speaker 2: or et cetera, Like three really big things that would

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Speaker 2: like cause me to have sort of like.

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Speaker 3: Elite status anxiety go on.

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Speaker 2: Well, one of them is AI because we don't know

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Speaker 2: what it's going to mean for our literal jobs or

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Speaker 2: the companies we work for, et cetera. That's a really

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Speaker 2: big one. Domestic politics. I think, like you know, I

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Speaker 2: think we're living in the United States, domestic politics feel

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Speaker 2: like they continue to go off the rails in various

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Speaker 2: ways that could impact a lot of things. And then

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Speaker 2: I think, unfortunately, maybe I'll change this one day. I

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Speaker 2: don't speak Madron, and if all of the interesting markets,

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Speaker 2: finance news, if that becomes like the center of economic

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Speaker 2: activity in like some really big way people talk about

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Speaker 2: the China shock that they mostly are talking about sort

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Speaker 2: of rustbelt manufacturing, there's like a China shock for like

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Speaker 2: sort of service level financial services, et cetera. I don't think,

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Speaker 2: like you know, I don't think I would have as

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Speaker 2: much to contribute in that world.

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Speaker 5: You won't need to learn Mandarin, Joe. You can just

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Speaker 5: just use AI.

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Speaker 3: You know, have you seen the AI translator gadgets I have?

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Speaker 5: Yeah, some of them are really good.

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Speaker 2: Yeah yeah, And like you had these things, there's two

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Speaker 2: sides of a screen and you're just talking then for

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Speaker 2: the other person.

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Speaker 1: Yeah.

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Speaker 2: But setting that aside, I don't know how well that

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Speaker 2: would work on the podcast or video medium.

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Speaker 5: I gotta say I still watch ninety Day Fiance now

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Speaker 5: no Go Americans dating and marrying foreigners from abroad, and

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Speaker 5: there are a lot of translation apps on that show,

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Speaker 5: many of which go very very wrong.

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Speaker 2: So anyway, anyway, on this last point though, I think,

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Speaker 2: like we know that probably start certainly with like the

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Speaker 2: first Trump administration, sort of like US, China attention has

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Speaker 2: been sort of on this linear increase. It probably accelerated

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Speaker 2: during COVID, and it's clearly spread beyond the US. It

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Speaker 2: just gets seems to get more intense by the week,

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Speaker 2: including in Europe, where I think China anxiety the loss

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Speaker 2: of like industrial competitiveness has now really become top of mind, right, and.

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Speaker 5: It's even broader than China. I mean, we've spoken about

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Speaker 5: it on the show but it seems like there's a

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Speaker 5: real nationalism to economics nowadays. Because of the pandemic, because

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Speaker 5: of the war in Iran now and various other disruptions

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Speaker 5: that we've seen, governments are really focused on building up

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Speaker 5: their own supply chains, building up their own manufacturing bases,

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Speaker 5: their own critical resources, and all of that. So everyone

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Speaker 5: seems to be trying to bring things in house, which

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Speaker 5: at the moment largely means taking things away from Asia.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, that would be the goal, right, they want to

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Speaker 2: replace these things.

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Speaker 3: Anyway, I think, as you know, forty, I'm about to

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Speaker 3: turn forty six.

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Speaker 2: So maybe if I'm lucky about halfway through my life,

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Speaker 2: I would say the first half of my life I

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Speaker 2: have benefited a lot from the certain order of things,

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Speaker 2: And when I look around the landscape, I would say,

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Speaker 2: I am not so sure that the order from which

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Speaker 2: I've enjoyed many fruits and privileges is going to be

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Speaker 2: as durable in the second half.

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Speaker 3: Sure, got sare okay, So.

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Speaker 2: We should talk about what were these fruits and privileges

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Speaker 2: that we enjoyed, and perhaps what would a new sort

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Speaker 2: of order in which some of these arrangements from which

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Speaker 2: we've benefited, If they change.

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Speaker 3: What could some of this look like in the future.

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Speaker 3: All right, well, I'm very.

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Speaker 2: Excited to say we really do have the perfect guest,

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Speaker 2: someone we wanted to talk to for a long time,

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Speaker 2: someone whose work is right in.

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Speaker 3: The heart of this.

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Speaker 2: We're going to be speaking with Franco Milanovitch. He's a

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Speaker 2: research professor at the Graduate Center at CUNY, the City

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Speaker 2: University of New York, and he is also the author

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Speaker 2: of a new book came out this year, The Great

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Speaker 2: Global Transformation to the United States, China and Remaking of

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Speaker 2: the World Economic Order. Professor Milanovitch, thank you so much

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Speaker 2: for coming on.

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Speaker 4: Thank you very much for having me, it said, it's

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Speaker 4: a pleasure.

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Speaker 2: What was the goal going into this new book. Well,

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Speaker 2: I write a new book right now.

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Speaker 5: You know.

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Speaker 6: In to some extent when I finished the book, I

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Speaker 6: thought the goal was basically to write and to write

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Speaker 6: an autobiography.

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Speaker 3: Okay, that could.

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Speaker 6: Sound strange because there is very little love that book.

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Speaker 6: But I covered the period from nineteen seventy four. Actually,

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Speaker 6: I started the book in nineteen seventy four with the

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Speaker 6: new international Economic Order and then how it failed and

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Speaker 6: how then jonipolar moment came, and how the United States

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Speaker 6: was not only the most public country economically, politically, militarily,

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Speaker 6: but also ideologically. And how that order, which you might

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Speaker 6: call near liberal globalization, is now expiring. And when I think,

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Speaker 6: actually my entire life, I remember each of these four orders,

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Speaker 6: and I'm now present at the birth of what they

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Speaker 6: called national market liberalism, which I think, as you were

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Speaker 6: saying before, is a new economic order where lots of

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Speaker 6: activities would be brought back home and where external economic

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Speaker 6: policies would be essentially mercantilistic and not free trade.

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Speaker 5: Why do you call it national economic liberalism?

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Speaker 6: I call it because I was thinking, actually if you

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Speaker 6: define liberalism in the most general sense, or take also neoliberalism,

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Speaker 6: which would not be very different. You have on domestic side,

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Speaker 6: you have policies which are liberal policy is economically everybody

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Speaker 6: knows that, you know, free pricing, competitions on. You have

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Speaker 6: social policies which are about affirmative action egalitarianism in terms

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Speaker 6: of personal identity. And then internationally you have policies on

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Speaker 6: free trade, low tariffs, movement of capital, labor and goods.

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Speaker 4: And so on.

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Speaker 6: And finally you have an aspirational policy about the movement

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Speaker 6: of the other factor of production labor that has never

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Speaker 6: really happened, but aspirationally you can say, ideologically it is there.

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Speaker 6: What is happening now is that we take this entire

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Speaker 6: international part, chop it off and say, wait, these rules

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Speaker 6: do not apply anymore. What applies now is essentially national

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Speaker 6: sort of amercantilist policy. It's a policy of you know,

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Speaker 6: bagger day lahbor to some extent, but certainly zero sum

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Speaker 6: game or even a negative some game.

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Speaker 4: It's entirely different.

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Speaker 6: But domestically, I really see the administrations like Trump, Macron

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Speaker 6: and others. I see them as essentially continuing with neoliberal

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Speaker 6: policies domestically. So that's what I think. Actually, that's why

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Speaker 6: I wented this new term. That was the kind of

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Speaker 6: national liberalism. So it's not and do more precise national

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Speaker 6: liberalism on the market side, not necessarily on the social

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Speaker 6: side domestically.

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Speaker 2: It's interesting you say something interesting in the beginning of

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Speaker 2: your book where you talk about, you know, going back

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Speaker 2: to the middle of the twentieth century, or maybe in

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Speaker 2: the immediate wake of the Great Depression, to stabilize capitalism,

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Speaker 2: we adopted sort of like the government got involved, we

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Speaker 2: got we took in a little dose of socialism and

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Speaker 2: that saved capitalism. And then you sort of kind of

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Speaker 2: a joke you talk about like, okay, well the goal

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Speaker 2: was maybe to you know, the sort of like post

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Speaker 2: World War two era saved socialism and various by injecting

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Speaker 2: some market element. And then there's like this in Yang

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Speaker 2: effect that you sort of see where it's like two

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Speaker 2: different systems adopt some element of each other in theory

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Speaker 2: or that could have gone the way as a way

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Speaker 2: of like bringing about stability.

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Speaker 6: Well, that wasn't my idea. Actually I was brounk in

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Speaker 6: that sense because I actually I in the very beginning

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Speaker 6: of the book, as you know, in the introduction, I

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Speaker 6: bring up my first book was published in nineteen eighty nine,

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Speaker 6: and actually in the very first sentence of the book

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Speaker 6: I mentioned it I ran into Jeff Sachs and David Lipton,

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Speaker 6: whom I knew from work on Poland, and so I

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Speaker 6: told them, well, I've got this book. And actually I

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Speaker 6: gave the book to Jeff Sachs as a present. I

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Speaker 6: found it in the bookstore, and then he said, okay,

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Speaker 6: you have to write something. And I said to Jeff

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Speaker 6: Sechs was trying to save socialism and Jeff kind of

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Speaker 6: looks at me. He says, what are you talking about?

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Speaker 6: And I remember these words exactly. He says, I'm trying

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Speaker 6: to bury socialism, and I said, oh, why wait, And

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Speaker 6: that's what I actually understood.

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Speaker 4: The misunderstanding.

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Speaker 6: For me, the introduction of market principles and market measures

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Speaker 6: and privitization to some extent was exactly the same by analogy,

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Speaker 6: what Caines did to save capitalism form Great Depression. You

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Speaker 6: inject thoses of socialism in order to preserve the capitalist framework.

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Speaker 6: So I thought the same would happen nineteen eighty nine.

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Speaker 6: My big mistake. But I just wanted to mention that

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Speaker 6: because I think it's a nice anecdote that actually we

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Speaker 6: saw the same thing, but that saw them into different ways.

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Speaker 2: But arguably that is a characterization of what did happen

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Speaker 2: in China, particularly after Mile right. So I give this

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Speaker 2: communist country, still communist, but clearly a country that has

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Speaker 2: embraced I don't know about capitalism, but markets for sure

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Speaker 2: in a very big way, maybe even better than us.

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Speaker 4: No, I mean definitely.

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Speaker 6: You can actually then translate what they said and said, well,

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Speaker 6: maybe I was right, because I really meant China, but

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Speaker 6: I did not in those days. I really meant Eastern

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Speaker 6: Europe and the Soviet Union. China is of course a

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Speaker 6: very special case, and of course I'm sure we'll talk

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Speaker 6: more about China, but it is an example that again,

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Speaker 6: fifteen years ago, nobody expected what has happened. And if

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Speaker 6: people tell me they did expect, I just go back

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Speaker 6: to what they wrote, and they caught Nobel prize, you know,

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Speaker 6: prizes for writing that China would never technologically developed ten

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Speaker 6: years ago, and then we see now the reality, which

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Speaker 6: is entirely different.

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Speaker 5: By the way, I'm going to get you to sign

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Speaker 5: my copy of the book in the hopes that it

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Speaker 5: makes it into the preface of your next piece of

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Speaker 5: work anecdote. Yeah, okay, with a place like China, I'm

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Speaker 5: glad you brought this up, because there's this weird tension

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Speaker 5: in the way people talk about it as both an

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Speaker 5: economic and security threat. You know, China is going to

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Speaker 5: compete with us and it's going to get everything, et cetera,

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Speaker 5: and then talk about it as a relatively weak country.

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Speaker 5: In some ways, people still talk about it sometimes as

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Speaker 5: a developing country or even you know, ten or twenty

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Speaker 5: years ago, people would talk about the poor farmers. You

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Speaker 5: hear less about that nowadays. How how would you explain

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Speaker 5: like that the dual way that people tend to think

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Speaker 5: and talk about China in terms of its threat to

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Speaker 5: the West.

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Speaker 6: Let me start first by rephrasing your question, because once

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Speaker 6: you start speaking of the threat to somebody, then we

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Speaker 6: are really no longer in economics as we studied it.

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Speaker 6: We are now exactly in that world of merchantilistic into

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Speaker 6: their national competition. And you know, it has actually sort

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Speaker 6: of moved into our thinking without us even realizing. We

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Speaker 6: give you an an anecdotables once on the show with

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Speaker 6: very famous economists. I will not mention the name, and

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Speaker 6: of course the topic was topic was China. And then

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Speaker 6: he you know, we're talking about the general things about

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Speaker 6: you know, wages, exports, import something like very general. We're

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Speaker 6: actually general economic principles should apply. And then he suddenly says, no, no,

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Speaker 6: but for us, the United States, it is bad. And

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Speaker 6: I was thinking, wait, you're not in the government. I understand.

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Speaker 6: I would understand if you were in a treasury. Yes,

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Speaker 6: of course this is your duty to look up to

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Speaker 6: the United States. But you, as a general economist, you

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Speaker 6: have to think about whether it is good for the

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Speaker 6: world or not.

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Speaker 4: I think relative.

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Speaker 6: But since we are now in this new world, what

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Speaker 6: do I think about China. First of all, I have

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Speaker 6: to tell you that, for example, what you see in China,

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Speaker 6: actually it happened to me like a week ago. People

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Speaker 6: are very much surprised when you tell them you're now

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Speaker 6: a rich country. I mean when I say, okay, by

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Speaker 6: the World Bank definition, Actually this is the real conversation.

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Speaker 6: You are the upper middle class income country. And they

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Speaker 6: are kind of surprised. And there was a woman who

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Speaker 6: tells me, you know, I submitted a publication for the

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Speaker 6: U and US Journal and I paid I think fifty

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Speaker 6: dollars as a developing country. And they right back to

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Speaker 6: me and say, no, you are now classified as advanced

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Speaker 6: country and you have to pay one hundred dollars for

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Speaker 6: the submission fee. But you know, this stuff is still

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Speaker 6: very much present in China. I think Chinese do not

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Speaker 6: see themselves by and large as a rich country. They

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Speaker 6: speak of this as you know, officially moderately prosperous society.

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Speaker 6: And I think it's a correct denomination, if you will.

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Speaker 6: China is not France, it's not tally, it doesn't have

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Speaker 6: the income level. But on the other hand, as you

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Speaker 6: actually implied, technologically, it is at the level which is

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Speaker 6: actually only similar to the United States, And that is

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Speaker 6: that duality that we observe. You know, maybe the villages

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Speaker 6: I have not been there, but I know that actually

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Speaker 6: they are villages whare below two dollars per day. You know,

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Speaker 6: we are absolute public in line. And on the other hand,

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Speaker 6: we have them as a leader of the artificial intelligence

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Speaker 6: so par You.

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Speaker 2: Know, I think for a long time people of the

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Speaker 2: West like didn't think about China.

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Speaker 3: I mean maybe like people in the.

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Speaker 2: Treasury or whatever, or in a few they didn't think

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Speaker 2: about China very much. It feels to me like one

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Speaker 2: of the remarkable things about the last ten years, and

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Speaker 2: it literally has been ten years, has the whole West

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Speaker 2: and the Western political economic unit. So it's like governments

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Speaker 2: in Europe and obviously the US, and then as you

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Speaker 2: say in your book, you might also as part of

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Speaker 2: this Western political bloc might even incline to include like

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Speaker 2: Korea in Japan. Has you travel around you were recently

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Speaker 2: in Paris. Has everyone essentially come around in some level

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Speaker 2: to where Trump was in twenty sixteen.

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Speaker 6: Yes, I think basically that's the case, you know, and

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Speaker 6: that actually, if I go back to my book chapter one,

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Speaker 6: it is structured on two levels. We talked so far

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Speaker 6: about the level, the first level, which is country's GDPs

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Speaker 6: and countries importances, and of course China then suddenly starts

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Speaker 6: playing a very important role there. But there is another level, which,

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Speaker 6: of course, thanks to the world that I've done for

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Speaker 6: thirty years on global income distribution, I also observe, and

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Speaker 6: that second level is personal income level. What happens with

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Speaker 6: the rise of Asia and China in particular is for

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Speaker 6: the first time in two last centuries, you have lower

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Speaker 6: parts of Western income distributions sliding down in global order.

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Speaker 6: So if you are bottom decile in Italy, okay, you're

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Speaker 6: not reached by Italian standards, but you know you're okay.

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Speaker 6: In the world level, you're at the seventies percent all

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Speaker 6: of the world thirty years ago. Well now you're at

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Speaker 6: the fifty fifth percent. In other words, if Italy had

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Speaker 6: qualified for the World Cup, that Italian would not have

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Speaker 6: the money to come to watch Italy, but the money

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Speaker 6: thirty years ago to come to watch Italy. So you know,

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Speaker 6: there is this loss of economic position of individuals in

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Speaker 6: Western countries so you know that the China thing plays

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Speaker 6: on two levels. It plays at the level us rest

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Speaker 6: of China or European Union, which is an abstract level

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Speaker 6: of state versus state, but it plays at the level

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Speaker 6: you against the Chinese guy. Yeah, and that I think

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Speaker 6: is there. Actually, that's what I tried to bring in

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Speaker 6: the book, these two levels, and I think it's important

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Speaker 6: to have them in mind.

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Speaker 5: I like the idea of measuring wealth in ability to

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Speaker 5: watch World Cup games.

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Speaker 4: It's internationally priced good, you know.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, just going back to the idea of national market

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Speaker 5: liberalism and pressing on the point you just made. I mean,

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Speaker 5: the response to or the back against globalization in your

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Speaker 5: description has been I guess, tearing down the liberal aspect

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Speaker 5: of the international economy and international trade and not domestically.

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Speaker 5: So domestically you still preserve, you know, large parts of capitalism.

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Speaker 5: It didn't have to go that way, right, You could

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Speaker 5: have had domestic changes in terms of income redistribution and

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Speaker 5: things like that. Why do you think so much of

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Speaker 5: it was just focused on the international order rather than domestically.

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Speaker 6: You know, I don't know, but let me try to

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Speaker 6: answer that question. You know, I'm very often asked, probably

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Speaker 6: you would have asked if I don't bring it up first.

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Speaker 6: That was the elephant chart.

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Speaker 4: The elephant chart.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, the great elephant chart.

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Speaker 5: I was going to ask if you're annoyed every time

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Speaker 5: anyone mentions the elephant chart.

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Speaker 6: I'm actually part of it, but pill I have to

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Speaker 6: use it, you know, the elephant chart with the show.

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Speaker 6: Really the bottom line is okay, middle classes, so the

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Speaker 6: West have not been doing well. Growth three to one

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Speaker 6: percent random per capita not very well. The top of

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Speaker 6: the Western distributions are doing very well, you know under

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Speaker 6: Clinton especially, you know, three percent and more. And then

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Speaker 6: of course China is doing very well. So you are

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Speaker 6: sitting there, you are a government of the United States.

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Speaker 6: Let's say you have two possible options. You have, Okay,

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Speaker 6: we go for policies that would actually tax the rich,

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Speaker 6: that would transfer the money, that would do I don't know,

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Speaker 6: serious start of risk, killing of labor, public education because

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Speaker 6: I come from public education, public education rather than private,

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Speaker 6: get rid of all these fancy schools that are being

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Speaker 6: bankrolled by billionaires and do a serious effort. Or you say, oh, look,

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Speaker 6: China is like screwing us, so let's go after China.

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Speaker 6: China is really benefiting because they are stealing property rights

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Speaker 6: and they're doing this or that, and eventually the decision

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Speaker 6: was made why it was made like that, but maybe

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Speaker 6: politically it was more pragmatic or whatever. And I think

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Speaker 6: that Trump twenty sixteen for me is the watershed here

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Speaker 6: because many of the policies that Trump then imposed and

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Speaker 6: regarding China that continued under Biden. They were done in

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Speaker 6: a more maybe intelligent way, but basically they continued, and

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Speaker 6: I think that was the change. And then after that

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Speaker 6: we really have an acceleration in these policies. But you

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Speaker 6: have a very good question. Maybe for political scientists, I

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Speaker 6: don't know. It could have gone the other way. I

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Speaker 6: totally agree it would have gone into more social democratic

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Speaker 6: capitalism rather to go into this nationalist liberalist Yes.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, because this is something I think about a lot,

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Speaker 2: which is like, let's say we were like take back

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Speaker 2: rewind the clock toll, like nineteen eighty nine or nineteen

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Speaker 2: ninety two, and I always think to myself, like, I

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Speaker 2: was nine years old nineteen eighty nine, so I didn't

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Speaker 2: think about these things. But I always think to myself,

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Speaker 2: like if I had been to say, like in my

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Speaker 2: early in my career, in my twenties. In those years,

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Speaker 2: I'd be like, oh, it's obvious, like liberalism or neoliberalism,

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Speaker 2: one of those two. It's just like, it's clearly, it's

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Speaker 2: clearly the way of the future. It's clearly supure. It's

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Speaker 2: proof even itself in the decisive test against like which

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Speaker 2: was the better model against the Soviet Union. Even to

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Speaker 2: this day, I actually find it pretty remarkable the degree

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Speaker 2: to which China held the line in that decade when

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Speaker 2: everything was pointing to It's like, the question is settled,

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Speaker 2: we know what's the better system. And now, of course

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Speaker 2: we have lots of people questioning all the systems. But

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Speaker 2: it's sort of remarkable to me that in the nineties specifically,

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Speaker 2: you had like one country that not only didn't just

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Speaker 2: sort of like embrace you know, re elections, et cetera,

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Speaker 2: Like it didn't even ever seem to be to come

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Speaker 2: particularly close.

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Speaker 6: Well, I often think of the nineties. I was older

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Speaker 6: than you and then, and I was then in Washington

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Speaker 6: and working for the World Bank. You know, the neoliberal

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Speaker 6: ideology was so omnipresent and it was actually common sensical.

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Speaker 6: So it's like you are now if you were to

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Speaker 6: now argue like, okay, this is not to world. This

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Speaker 6: is actually still well, we all see that it's not actual,

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Speaker 6: so it was very common sensical, and you believe that

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Speaker 6: whoever would actually say something against that, it's like either

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Speaker 6: like uneducated or crazy or some of the mixture of

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Speaker 6: the two, because it has indeed had actually total ideological hegemony,

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Speaker 6: total ideology.

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Speaker 4: Hegemeny.

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Speaker 6: I was not happy, but I was not happy for

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Speaker 6: other reasons which have to do with my life and

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Speaker 6: other things.

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Speaker 4: And actually recently I found an.

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Speaker 6: Article, long article that was then published, I think in

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Speaker 6: the Monthly Review, which question into its very early nineteen

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Speaker 6: ninety nine. But you know, it was an unusual article,

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Speaker 6: and I think we all took it as as a

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Speaker 6: common sense that it is an ideology that would be

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Speaker 6: now come to China.

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Speaker 4: Very briefly, China played it very low. Then they did

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Speaker 4: not actually they were like a sleeper.

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Speaker 6: They were not disturbing things at all. And then of

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Speaker 6: course many people in America now I think, some self

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Speaker 6: serving they say, oh, we really did not bother with

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Speaker 6: China because we thought China would evolve the way that

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Speaker 6: South Korea did and Taiwan, it would become richer, it

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Speaker 6: would become our partner then they would democrat dies and

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Speaker 6: they will become like like another United States, and it

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Speaker 6: would be everything fine.

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Speaker 4: Whether they really believe that.

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Speaker 6: Or not, I don't know, but China was not at

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Speaker 6: the center of attention that it actually became over the

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Speaker 6: last ten years. There is no doubt about it. People

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Speaker 6: implicitly believed, I think, or wanted to believe that China

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Speaker 6: would become a quote unquote normal capitalist, liberal country.

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Speaker 5: I mean, since we're talking about a normal capitalist, liberal country.

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Speaker 3: One of the quotes.

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Speaker 5: One of the things about China is you always hear

440
00:22:32,600 --> 00:22:36,720
Speaker 5: that the government is trying to boost consumption, right, reduce savings,

441
00:22:36,800 --> 00:22:40,879
Speaker 5: boost consumption, and they seem to struggle with it. And

442
00:22:40,920 --> 00:22:44,560
Speaker 5: so I'm curious how you square you know, the growth

443
00:22:44,600 --> 00:22:48,120
Speaker 5: of the middle class in China and the idea that actually,

444
00:22:48,160 --> 00:22:51,560
Speaker 5: you know, by certain standards, they're pretty wealthy now with

445
00:22:51,600 --> 00:22:52,879
Speaker 5: that reluctance to spend.

446
00:22:53,720 --> 00:22:55,760
Speaker 4: You know, that's a very complicated question.

447
00:22:55,800 --> 00:22:57,840
Speaker 6: And I'm not a micro economist, but I had only

448
00:22:57,880 --> 00:23:00,520
Speaker 6: a couple of days ago the discussion on Twitter and

449
00:23:00,520 --> 00:23:03,560
Speaker 6: a substace on that. First are the effects. The fact

450
00:23:03,640 --> 00:23:06,320
Speaker 6: is actually china consumption to GDP ratio is very low.

451
00:23:06,560 --> 00:23:09,800
Speaker 6: It's like about forty forty five percent. US is seventy percent,

452
00:23:09,920 --> 00:23:12,879
Speaker 6: India is fifty percent, so clearly it should be a

453
00:23:12,960 --> 00:23:16,200
Speaker 6: ten percentage points higher. People of course argue that there

454
00:23:16,240 --> 00:23:19,840
Speaker 6: is compressional wages, and of course that state owned enterprises

455
00:23:19,840 --> 00:23:24,480
Speaker 6: then have large retained profits. Now, the good use of

456
00:23:24,520 --> 00:23:27,960
Speaker 6: these retained profits by the state essentially is they can

457
00:23:28,040 --> 00:23:31,840
Speaker 6: actually use enormous amounts of money to direct to certain

458
00:23:32,080 --> 00:23:38,080
Speaker 6: activities for example, railroad construction, or artificial intelligence or actually

459
00:23:38,080 --> 00:23:40,320
Speaker 6: what people don't mention, but China has really done very

460
00:23:40,320 --> 00:23:42,679
Speaker 6: well in space exploration as well, and you know this

461
00:23:42,800 --> 00:23:44,720
Speaker 6: is not like no money at all. And I think

462
00:23:44,760 --> 00:23:47,400
Speaker 6: the next one would be air production with the airplanes,

463
00:23:47,400 --> 00:23:49,479
Speaker 6: which they already have started but they have not broken.

464
00:23:49,840 --> 00:23:52,920
Speaker 6: So and you can use that money also to have

465
00:23:53,000 --> 00:23:56,239
Speaker 6: political economic influence in Africa and elsewhere. So I think

466
00:23:56,320 --> 00:23:59,719
Speaker 6: there is a political economy reason why China needs to

467
00:23:59,760 --> 00:24:02,640
Speaker 6: have the polit from the point of view of the government,

468
00:24:02,840 --> 00:24:06,160
Speaker 6: these large amounts of money. And I think it's easier

469
00:24:06,200 --> 00:24:08,800
Speaker 6: to have this so called wage compression or actually lack

470
00:24:08,840 --> 00:24:12,080
Speaker 6: of sufficient growth of wages if your wages still grow

471
00:24:12,160 --> 00:24:14,480
Speaker 6: by three or four five percent per year. Now, if

472
00:24:14,520 --> 00:24:17,840
Speaker 6: your wages were zero, then it's harder to have a compression.

473
00:24:17,840 --> 00:24:20,800
Speaker 6: But if you have five percent, fine. In past maybe

474
00:24:20,800 --> 00:24:23,200
Speaker 6: you had eight percent, but five percent is good enough.

475
00:24:23,440 --> 00:24:27,040
Speaker 6: So I think there is a political economy reason behind

476
00:24:27,040 --> 00:24:27,760
Speaker 6: that in China.

477
00:24:27,880 --> 00:24:28,360
Speaker 4: So I'm not.

478
00:24:28,359 --> 00:24:31,040
Speaker 6: Quite sure if they really what they say, they really

479
00:24:31,040 --> 00:24:35,639
Speaker 6: would like to accomplish that they cannot because yes, for example,

480
00:24:35,640 --> 00:24:39,080
Speaker 6: they could increase social transfer significantly and people will spend

481
00:24:39,119 --> 00:24:41,920
Speaker 6: that money lots of saving. I think it's not untrue

482
00:24:42,320 --> 00:24:45,240
Speaker 6: is doing China to the fact that actually, particularly in

483
00:24:45,280 --> 00:24:47,280
Speaker 6: the rural areas, you don't have social protection.

484
00:24:47,760 --> 00:24:49,959
Speaker 2: Just real quickly going back to the question of like

485
00:24:50,040 --> 00:24:53,320
Speaker 2: how did China not get swept up in the neo

486
00:24:53,400 --> 00:24:58,240
Speaker 2: liberal consensus that was like so hegemonic in the nineteen nineties.

487
00:24:58,280 --> 00:25:01,280
Speaker 2: The other thing that you observe in your book is

488
00:25:01,280 --> 00:25:05,760
Speaker 2: that even earlier in the century it never got particularly

489
00:25:05,840 --> 00:25:09,560
Speaker 2: interested in like the nonline movement or the so called

490
00:25:09,600 --> 00:25:13,000
Speaker 2: third world countries, et cetera. Is it just have a

491
00:25:13,119 --> 00:25:17,960
Speaker 2: history of not being particularly interested in the flavors of

492
00:25:18,000 --> 00:25:19,480
Speaker 2: the month outside of its ports.

493
00:25:19,520 --> 00:25:23,960
Speaker 6: I actually think the Chinese isolation is country cultural, and

494
00:25:24,359 --> 00:25:26,800
Speaker 6: you know, people talk about the US being isolations and

495
00:25:26,880 --> 00:25:29,000
Speaker 6: all that, and of course there is a trend of

496
00:25:29,440 --> 00:25:32,040
Speaker 6: politics in the US which is basically meant to control

497
00:25:32,080 --> 00:25:34,520
Speaker 6: of the Western hemisphere. So it's not really totally isolation.

498
00:25:34,600 --> 00:25:37,840
Speaker 6: It's it, but at least not get entanglements in Europe.

499
00:25:38,000 --> 00:25:41,440
Speaker 6: But China, I think culturally, and I actually recently discussed

500
00:25:41,440 --> 00:25:43,719
Speaker 6: that with some friends, like you know, the fact is

501
00:25:44,040 --> 00:25:48,960
Speaker 6: that they're like all Chinese economies, all Chinese authors essentially

502
00:25:49,080 --> 00:25:52,359
Speaker 6: riots about China. And my publisher in China says to me,

503
00:25:52,440 --> 00:25:55,200
Speaker 6: I had several books, three books I think published in China,

504
00:25:55,640 --> 00:25:57,760
Speaker 6: and he says to me, look, we are actually very

505
00:25:57,760 --> 00:25:59,879
Speaker 6: happy with your books. We saw that no, probably several

506
00:26:00,800 --> 00:26:03,560
Speaker 6: I maybe I'm not't knowing about much, several thousand copies

507
00:26:03,720 --> 00:26:06,080
Speaker 6: because he says, you know, Chinese audience, they don't want

508
00:26:06,080 --> 00:26:08,560
Speaker 6: to read anything which is not about China. So it's

509
00:26:08,600 --> 00:26:11,800
Speaker 6: hard to sell things that are not talking about China. US, yes,

510
00:26:11,840 --> 00:26:14,320
Speaker 6: because now they see this competition, but the rest of

511
00:26:14,359 --> 00:26:17,080
Speaker 6: the world not that much. So I think there is

512
00:26:17,119 --> 00:26:20,880
Speaker 6: a certain ideological thing which might go really back centuries

513
00:26:21,080 --> 00:26:24,560
Speaker 6: that you know, China thought itself the center of the

514
00:26:24,680 --> 00:26:26,199
Speaker 6: universe and middle kingdom.

515
00:26:26,280 --> 00:26:27,520
Speaker 4: It's a middle kingdom.

516
00:26:27,240 --> 00:26:29,639
Speaker 6: And everybody comes to the Middle Kingdom and they just

517
00:26:29,920 --> 00:26:33,040
Speaker 6: you know, do kautao and say, well, you guys are great,

518
00:26:33,240 --> 00:26:36,359
Speaker 6: and maybe betray the giraffe for a little bit.

519
00:26:36,240 --> 00:26:38,360
Speaker 4: Of porcelain and then you go home.

520
00:26:38,680 --> 00:26:41,680
Speaker 6: So I think that that ideology, I mean under there

521
00:26:41,720 --> 00:26:44,400
Speaker 6: is still presence of that, and I think that limits

522
00:26:44,480 --> 00:26:48,240
Speaker 6: China's influence of terms of soft power, because if you

523
00:26:48,280 --> 00:26:51,800
Speaker 6: don't want to study others and to write books about

524
00:26:51,880 --> 00:26:54,720
Speaker 6: them and to actually try to fashion what they think

525
00:26:54,760 --> 00:26:57,760
Speaker 6: about themselves, you're not going to have soft power. Maybe

526
00:26:57,760 --> 00:26:59,959
Speaker 6: you just finally give an example. Sure, I read recently

527
00:27:00,359 --> 00:27:03,160
Speaker 6: Richard Pipes. He was a famous historian of the Soviet Union.

528
00:27:03,440 --> 00:27:05,320
Speaker 6: When he went to the Soviet Union in eighty nine,

529
00:27:05,359 --> 00:27:08,280
Speaker 6: he was not published before in under communist regime. He

530
00:27:08,400 --> 00:27:11,800
Speaker 6: was agreed to there by accident read that somewhere like

531
00:27:11,880 --> 00:27:16,000
Speaker 6: a greatest historian in the history and all that, because

532
00:27:16,280 --> 00:27:21,200
Speaker 6: his books were so influential in influencing Russians see their

533
00:27:21,240 --> 00:27:22,080
Speaker 6: own history.

534
00:27:22,280 --> 00:27:23,240
Speaker 4: So that's what I meant.

535
00:27:23,240 --> 00:27:25,760
Speaker 6: When you're interested in other countries, so you have to

536
00:27:25,840 --> 00:27:27,959
Speaker 6: have somebody and not only one person, but you have

537
00:27:28,000 --> 00:27:30,879
Speaker 6: lots of people who would write about other countries and

538
00:27:31,040 --> 00:27:34,439
Speaker 6: influence what other countries think about themselves. And so long

539
00:27:34,520 --> 00:27:37,720
Speaker 6: as China does not have that its own self power

540
00:27:37,720 --> 00:27:38,680
Speaker 6: I think will be limited.

541
00:27:39,080 --> 00:27:41,400
Speaker 5: You have a chapter in the book about the elites,

542
00:27:41,800 --> 00:27:45,119
Speaker 5: about Joe and me. In it, you invent a new word.

543
00:27:45,480 --> 00:27:47,800
Speaker 5: My Greek is not very good, but homo ploutio.

544
00:27:48,000 --> 00:27:49,880
Speaker 4: Yes, that's correct, homo plautio.

545
00:27:50,320 --> 00:27:54,119
Speaker 5: And this is the idea that in America, certainly, like

546
00:27:54,240 --> 00:27:59,359
Speaker 5: the wealthy happened getting increasingly rich both through actual labor

547
00:27:59,400 --> 00:28:01,639
Speaker 5: income how much they're being paid to do their jobs,

548
00:28:02,080 --> 00:28:06,400
Speaker 5: as well as capital income, so dividends or whatever. And

549
00:28:06,440 --> 00:28:10,160
Speaker 5: this is something new according to you. So I'm really curious,

550
00:28:10,160 --> 00:28:14,280
Speaker 5: like how do you explain the rise of homo plutia?

551
00:28:14,600 --> 00:28:16,640
Speaker 5: And I always think, you know, if you think about

552
00:28:16,680 --> 00:28:18,520
Speaker 5: someone who's making a lot of money from both labor

553
00:28:18,560 --> 00:28:22,240
Speaker 5: and capitalism, you've got to talk about Elon Musk, right, like.

554
00:28:22,160 --> 00:28:27,159
Speaker 6: He's yeah, yeah, I mean, because the book deals with

555
00:28:27,240 --> 00:28:30,000
Speaker 6: the top ten percent of Americans, so this is not

556
00:28:30,040 --> 00:28:31,840
Speaker 6: a small group, you know. It's like we're talking about

557
00:28:32,200 --> 00:28:35,160
Speaker 6: we take this is all empirical. We take like top

558
00:28:35,200 --> 00:28:38,080
Speaker 6: ten percent, which is you know, thirty million people approximately,

559
00:28:38,360 --> 00:28:40,400
Speaker 6: And what you find there is that there is an

560
00:28:40,480 --> 00:28:44,160
Speaker 6: increasing percentage of people who are in that top ten percent,

561
00:28:44,520 --> 00:28:47,880
Speaker 6: who are also in the top ten percent by income

562
00:28:47,920 --> 00:28:52,080
Speaker 6: from property cash income from property, and top ten percent

563
00:28:52,440 --> 00:28:55,160
Speaker 6: by income from labor from your job.

564
00:28:55,600 --> 00:28:58,240
Speaker 4: And that is new and now actually there are more studies.

565
00:28:58,280 --> 00:28:59,800
Speaker 6: This is early on, but now there are people a

566
00:28:59,800 --> 00:29:02,840
Speaker 6: start and exploring whether it existed in nineteen thirties and

567
00:29:02,880 --> 00:29:07,160
Speaker 6: twenties soon. But think of the nineteenth century capitalism. You

568
00:29:07,360 --> 00:29:10,920
Speaker 6: had big guys like JP Morgan or millions of address,

569
00:29:10,960 --> 00:29:16,160
Speaker 6: you know, millions, hundreds, But they were not laborers technically,

570
00:29:16,320 --> 00:29:20,240
Speaker 6: you know, they made money through entrepreneurship and sort of

571
00:29:20,360 --> 00:29:25,880
Speaker 6: corporate management of the company. Their income was income from corporations,

572
00:29:25,920 --> 00:29:30,040
Speaker 6: income from capital. But here now we have a significant

573
00:29:30,560 --> 00:29:34,760
Speaker 6: upper middle class that is rich in both ways. And

574
00:29:34,800 --> 00:29:37,400
Speaker 6: I think it's I mean, you're probably here all belong

575
00:29:37,480 --> 00:29:40,800
Speaker 6: to that group. And what is interesting then that's actually

576
00:29:40,800 --> 00:29:43,560
Speaker 6: what they use is that in the book Now I

577
00:29:43,600 --> 00:29:45,640
Speaker 6: use the Daniel Markowitz's.

578
00:29:45,120 --> 00:29:48,360
Speaker 4: Work on meritocracy a lot. That class is very.

579
00:29:48,240 --> 00:29:53,200
Speaker 6: Specific because in one hand it is rich capitalist quote unquote,

580
00:29:53,880 --> 00:29:57,400
Speaker 6: they really defend private property. In the past, when people

581
00:29:57,440 --> 00:30:00,320
Speaker 6: spoke of the professional in Nigilia class, I thought this

582
00:30:00,400 --> 00:30:04,000
Speaker 6: would be people who run state owned companies or private companies.

583
00:30:04,000 --> 00:30:05,120
Speaker 4: I use James Burnham.

584
00:30:05,160 --> 00:30:07,520
Speaker 6: You know you were saying the capitalists will be dead

585
00:30:07,520 --> 00:30:10,880
Speaker 6: because managers would run companies regardless, so they would be

586
00:30:10,960 --> 00:30:14,840
Speaker 6: in charge. And secondly, these people, because they have high

587
00:30:14,880 --> 00:30:17,520
Speaker 6: labor incomes and they went to fancay schools, they believe

588
00:30:17,560 --> 00:30:21,840
Speaker 6: they deserve it. And that means that the meritocracy, protection

589
00:30:21,960 --> 00:30:28,520
Speaker 6: of private property, large capitalists, and hard working ethos is combined.

590
00:30:28,800 --> 00:30:31,080
Speaker 6: And I would venture to say this is a new

591
00:30:31,200 --> 00:30:35,480
Speaker 6: combination in history of capitalists have class.

592
00:30:35,480 --> 00:30:39,720
Speaker 5: I were really hurd You call it folksy elites, right.

593
00:30:39,680 --> 00:30:43,200
Speaker 6: I'm sorry, folks eli the fox elites because they love

594
00:30:43,280 --> 00:30:45,880
Speaker 6: to be foxy. It's actually it's an interesting thing. I mean,

595
00:30:45,920 --> 00:30:49,080
Speaker 6: I think social sociologically, if you look at the elite

596
00:30:49,080 --> 00:30:51,360
Speaker 6: that you were seeing, the Jane Austen and so on,

597
00:30:51,720 --> 00:30:54,920
Speaker 6: they actually wanted to show their earlier. What you find

598
00:30:54,960 --> 00:30:57,880
Speaker 6: in American elite, and I spent some time around that

599
00:30:58,000 --> 00:31:00,640
Speaker 6: elite is that they really want to show that they're

600
00:31:00,720 --> 00:31:03,800
Speaker 6: not an elite. They do give you signals that they are,

601
00:31:04,360 --> 00:31:07,200
Speaker 6: but they do it in a fairly discreet way, and

602
00:31:07,240 --> 00:31:09,720
Speaker 6: they like many of the things to actually to be

603
00:31:10,360 --> 00:31:14,160
Speaker 6: very foxy, you know, may they mistake.

604
00:31:13,800 --> 00:31:14,360
Speaker 3: You know I do it.

605
00:31:14,400 --> 00:31:16,520
Speaker 2: I say, like, oh, I went to a public university,

606
00:31:16,600 --> 00:31:19,880
Speaker 2: the University of Texas. It's just a state school which

607
00:31:19,960 --> 00:31:22,280
Speaker 2: happens to be one of the best schools of the

608
00:31:22,400 --> 00:31:27,280
Speaker 2: nation and incredibly wealthy. But that is how I do that, folks.

609
00:31:27,280 --> 00:31:29,600
Speaker 2: The elite move by reminding I'm just.

610
00:31:29,560 --> 00:31:31,480
Speaker 3: A product of public education.

611
00:31:31,520 --> 00:31:33,520
Speaker 4: So of course they like to mention that they work hard,

612
00:31:33,520 --> 00:31:34,080
Speaker 4: which is true.

613
00:31:34,240 --> 00:31:36,120
Speaker 6: Actually if you look at the number of hours of

614
00:31:36,200 --> 00:31:40,080
Speaker 6: work in the US, it's actually increasing with wage per hour.

615
00:31:40,440 --> 00:31:43,160
Speaker 6: So they do work a lot. So they work a lot.

616
00:31:43,480 --> 00:31:46,160
Speaker 6: They studied by the lot. They feel they deserve it.

617
00:31:46,760 --> 00:31:49,760
Speaker 6: They have the capital incomes, and they transmit all these

618
00:31:49,800 --> 00:31:53,240
Speaker 6: advantages to their children that they believe actually children deserve that.

619
00:31:53,600 --> 00:31:56,080
Speaker 6: But the problem is it was what Marcowitz says. The

620
00:31:56,160 --> 00:31:59,280
Speaker 6: problem is that then actually does create in sort of

621
00:31:59,320 --> 00:32:03,600
Speaker 6: an elite that has a self perception that it deserves that,

622
00:32:04,520 --> 00:32:08,040
Speaker 6: and that is to some extent really unpregnably elite because

623
00:32:08,080 --> 00:32:10,040
Speaker 6: you cannot get rid of them because they have a

624
00:32:10,120 --> 00:32:12,720
Speaker 6: hard capital income. Since stock market goes down, they would

625
00:32:12,720 --> 00:32:14,000
Speaker 6: actually have labor income.

626
00:32:14,800 --> 00:32:18,160
Speaker 2: Very they don't deserve it. They're very spoiled. They didn't

627
00:32:18,160 --> 00:32:22,120
Speaker 2: do anything to deserve the lifestyle that they have. And

628
00:32:22,160 --> 00:32:24,160
Speaker 2: it's so, I that's the one.

629
00:32:24,200 --> 00:32:26,200
Speaker 6: You say that because you want to be foxy elite,

630
00:32:26,200 --> 00:32:28,760
Speaker 6: you know, you.

631
00:32:28,880 --> 00:32:31,600
Speaker 2: Don't actually like just getting all personal a little bit

632
00:32:31,840 --> 00:32:34,320
Speaker 2: just like No, it bothers.

633
00:32:34,000 --> 00:32:35,400
Speaker 6: Me a little bit because it's like they have all

634
00:32:35,400 --> 00:32:38,760
Speaker 6: these but they still do it because you're not going

635
00:32:38,800 --> 00:32:41,240
Speaker 6: to go to work against your kids, No, nobody does.

636
00:32:41,520 --> 00:32:44,160
Speaker 4: So I mean this is a I mean, this is

637
00:32:44,200 --> 00:32:47,160
Speaker 4: a very good elite as the elites go, but it

638
00:32:47,240 --> 00:32:47,880
Speaker 4: is an elite.

639
00:32:47,880 --> 00:32:50,800
Speaker 2: Nevertheless, going back to China, when we people people talk

640
00:32:50,840 --> 00:32:54,600
Speaker 2: about China, they were humans. So we always do this,

641
00:32:54,680 --> 00:32:58,479
Speaker 2: We reach for historical analogies. Right, Maybe the story is

642
00:32:58,520 --> 00:33:02,080
Speaker 2: that it's kind of like Japan. Maybe the story is

643
00:33:02,120 --> 00:33:05,080
Speaker 2: that it's kind of like the US after World War Two,

644
00:33:05,080 --> 00:33:08,320
Speaker 2: and you pull different strands from it, et cetera. But

645
00:33:09,080 --> 00:33:11,960
Speaker 2: I think more and more people are saying, now, this

646
00:33:12,000 --> 00:33:16,440
Speaker 2: is a new thing, this extraordinary concentration of so much

647
00:33:17,040 --> 00:33:22,360
Speaker 2: production in one country. Specifically it is novel and the

648
00:33:22,440 --> 00:33:26,200
Speaker 2: numbers setting us at the qualitative differences. You have some

649
00:33:26,240 --> 00:33:30,560
Speaker 2: distinct metrics, including like just the sheer like population level,

650
00:33:30,640 --> 00:33:35,200
Speaker 2: like wealth compounding gains over the last several decades. Is

651
00:33:35,280 --> 00:33:38,160
Speaker 2: it really just a sort of like a new phenomenon

652
00:33:38,240 --> 00:33:40,719
Speaker 2: that we don't have good analogies for. And can you

653
00:33:40,760 --> 00:33:43,160
Speaker 2: like talk about like just the scale of what we

654
00:33:43,280 --> 00:33:44,320
Speaker 2: call the rise of China?

655
00:33:44,480 --> 00:33:46,600
Speaker 6: Well, the scale, I can talk about the scale. I mean,

656
00:33:46,680 --> 00:33:48,560
Speaker 6: I really, I don't know. I'm wary of analogists. I

657
00:33:48,560 --> 00:33:51,040
Speaker 6: don't know if there is like analogy with Japan as well.

658
00:33:51,280 --> 00:33:53,480
Speaker 6: There is a knowledge of the Soviet you know days anology,

659
00:33:53,560 --> 00:33:56,200
Speaker 6: but the US actually the analogy even with the with

660
00:33:56,400 --> 00:33:59,640
Speaker 6: English with industrial relation because the growth going back just

661
00:33:59,680 --> 00:34:02,720
Speaker 6: what I'm moment on the elites, the growth we actually

662
00:34:02,760 --> 00:34:05,040
Speaker 6: did the same thing. I did this with the Caultors,

663
00:34:05,080 --> 00:34:08,680
Speaker 6: actually Chinese cults. We did five percent top of Chinese

664
00:34:08,800 --> 00:34:09,520
Speaker 6: urban population.

665
00:34:09,960 --> 00:34:11,040
Speaker 4: And this is their elite.

666
00:34:11,080 --> 00:34:13,719
Speaker 6: And what you see in that elite nineteen eighty eight

667
00:34:13,760 --> 00:34:16,920
Speaker 6: were the first eight to begin, is that two thirds,

668
00:34:16,960 --> 00:34:19,799
Speaker 6: broadly two thirds of the income of the elite comes

669
00:34:19,840 --> 00:34:24,480
Speaker 6: from state owned enterprises, government jobs, and jobs in the

670
00:34:24,520 --> 00:34:28,520
Speaker 6: Communist Party. Okay, well, go to day to twenty eighteen,

671
00:34:28,600 --> 00:34:30,680
Speaker 6: and now we have data for twenty twenty three.

672
00:34:31,000 --> 00:34:31,719
Speaker 4: Is the reversal.

673
00:34:32,040 --> 00:34:35,480
Speaker 6: Two thirds of total income from the elite in the

674
00:34:35,520 --> 00:34:40,080
Speaker 6: elite for the elite comes from private sector jobs, professional

675
00:34:40,280 --> 00:34:44,000
Speaker 6: jobs in private companies, and one third from state owned enterprises,

676
00:34:44,040 --> 00:34:47,279
Speaker 6: Communist Party and government. So that was why I made

677
00:34:47,280 --> 00:34:50,239
Speaker 6: the comparison with the UK, because the number of so

678
00:34:50,400 --> 00:34:52,359
Speaker 6: called you can call it capitalists, and they are called

679
00:34:52,400 --> 00:34:57,240
Speaker 6: actually in Chinese official terminology, they are called individual.

680
00:34:56,800 --> 00:35:00,400
Speaker 4: Owners and larger owners, not capitalists but owners.

681
00:35:00,440 --> 00:35:03,279
Speaker 6: Okay, when we look at the data that we're done,

682
00:35:03,320 --> 00:35:07,120
Speaker 6: Bob Balen, English Gunmic historian for the growth of the

683
00:35:07,200 --> 00:35:09,960
Speaker 6: capitalist class in England between sixteen and eighty eight, and

684
00:35:10,200 --> 00:35:14,120
Speaker 6: I suppose nineteen hundred we see exactly the same thing.

685
00:35:14,320 --> 00:35:17,120
Speaker 6: But over one hundred and fifty years there is more capitalists.

686
00:35:17,239 --> 00:35:19,040
Speaker 6: You know, there were a small numbers at the beginning,

687
00:35:19,280 --> 00:35:22,560
Speaker 6: then they became much larger number and their relative income

688
00:35:22,640 --> 00:35:26,520
Speaker 6: compared to our landlords originally was much lower and then

689
00:35:26,600 --> 00:35:30,000
Speaker 6: starts catching up. So what I called that extensive and

690
00:35:30,120 --> 00:35:34,120
Speaker 6: intensive increase of capitalists. And in China it took forty

691
00:35:34,200 --> 00:35:37,160
Speaker 6: years for that and in UK took one hundred and fifty.

692
00:35:37,520 --> 00:35:40,760
Speaker 6: So the change in China is just at the level

693
00:35:41,040 --> 00:35:44,080
Speaker 6: that we have not historically seen. So in that sense,

694
00:35:44,120 --> 00:35:46,360
Speaker 6: I totally agree with you. It is something that in

695
00:35:46,520 --> 00:35:50,120
Speaker 6: terms of size of the population and the speed, we

696
00:35:50,280 --> 00:35:52,560
Speaker 6: do not have an equivalent case.

697
00:36:08,440 --> 00:36:10,760
Speaker 5: I mean, there are risks that come with the rise

698
00:36:11,040 --> 00:36:14,920
Speaker 5: of the sort of national market liberalism. And you talk

699
00:36:14,960 --> 00:36:18,520
Speaker 5: about the potential for great power conflicts, for war, basically

700
00:36:18,880 --> 00:36:24,080
Speaker 5: for more income inequality, plutocracy, all that stuff. Can you

701
00:36:24,280 --> 00:36:28,040
Speaker 5: envision Is there any scenario where you get like a

702
00:36:28,239 --> 00:36:33,000
Speaker 5: relatively good equilibrium harmony from the Yeah, like, I mean,

703
00:36:33,200 --> 00:36:38,800
Speaker 5: could this type of market liberalism live in peace with itself?

704
00:36:38,880 --> 00:36:39,200
Speaker 1: I guess.

705
00:36:39,640 --> 00:36:41,840
Speaker 6: Okay, let me put the other had now, the optimistic

706
00:36:41,920 --> 00:36:44,360
Speaker 6: had you know, the chapter two in the book deals

707
00:36:44,440 --> 00:36:46,920
Speaker 6: with precisely that question. That was question that I think

708
00:36:47,000 --> 00:36:50,440
Speaker 6: is really so relevant. It says, what did the economies

709
00:36:50,520 --> 00:36:54,160
Speaker 6: of political sciences think about the relationship between openness slash

710
00:36:54,160 --> 00:36:57,800
Speaker 6: globalization and war on peace? And then you have people

711
00:36:57,840 --> 00:37:01,920
Speaker 6: from Montesquieu who actually believe that trade leads to immediately

712
00:37:02,000 --> 00:37:04,719
Speaker 6: to peace because we are both trying to actually sell

713
00:37:04,800 --> 00:37:06,279
Speaker 6: our goods. We have to be nice to each other

714
00:37:06,360 --> 00:37:08,560
Speaker 6: and stuff like that. I remember that, And of course

715
00:37:08,600 --> 00:37:13,200
Speaker 6: the other extreme is John Hobson with the imperial is

716
00:37:13,239 --> 00:37:15,719
Speaker 6: we in nineteen oh two, and then Rosa Luxembourg and

717
00:37:15,840 --> 00:37:19,520
Speaker 6: Lending who actually and Shuan Pater who believe that when

718
00:37:19,600 --> 00:37:24,319
Speaker 6: you have large powers, they fight for markets. Companies fight

719
00:37:24,440 --> 00:37:28,920
Speaker 6: for markets, but because they need markets control of the

720
00:37:29,000 --> 00:37:32,960
Speaker 6: labor force in foreign countries and elsewhere, they basically take

721
00:37:33,040 --> 00:37:36,520
Speaker 6: the state to play that military role that they need,

722
00:37:36,600 --> 00:37:40,000
Speaker 6: which is actually what we see today is basically large

723
00:37:40,040 --> 00:37:43,520
Speaker 6: scale companies need the support of the state if they

724
00:37:43,560 --> 00:37:47,279
Speaker 6: want really to do jobs elsewhere. And that was really

725
00:37:47,400 --> 00:37:51,840
Speaker 6: sort of a negative, more belligerent sort of variant of

726
00:37:52,520 --> 00:37:55,920
Speaker 6: that view. But if I want to be optimistic, I think,

727
00:37:56,280 --> 00:37:59,160
Speaker 6: I mean, let's go concretely to the questions today. If

728
00:37:59,239 --> 00:38:02,760
Speaker 6: we could top and find cease fire and a solution

729
00:38:03,200 --> 00:38:06,720
Speaker 6: of the war in Ukraine and Russia, in the Middle East,

730
00:38:07,440 --> 00:38:10,600
Speaker 6: Iran and the United States and Israel, I think that

731
00:38:10,800 --> 00:38:14,320
Speaker 6: we would then at least eliminate the possibility of a

732
00:38:14,920 --> 00:38:18,040
Speaker 6: huge war, which then, of course, if you have a

733
00:38:18,160 --> 00:38:20,320
Speaker 6: huge war, all the chips are off, you know, you

734
00:38:20,520 --> 00:38:22,640
Speaker 6: have no idea what will happen. But at least then

735
00:38:22,760 --> 00:38:28,200
Speaker 6: we could start, I think, redesigning economic system, as people

736
00:38:28,280 --> 00:38:31,240
Speaker 6: have said, a new Breton Woods and having a solution

737
00:38:31,560 --> 00:38:34,479
Speaker 6: where actually China would have greater influence, and not only China,

738
00:38:34,719 --> 00:38:38,239
Speaker 6: India as well. Europe definitely much less because Europe has

739
00:38:38,280 --> 00:38:41,120
Speaker 6: the influence in these organizations that reflect the ninety forty

740
00:38:41,200 --> 00:38:46,400
Speaker 6: five when you know, obviously Europe was basically still colonial

741
00:38:46,520 --> 00:38:50,880
Speaker 6: powers and countries like Indonesia, Brazil and so on. So

742
00:38:51,200 --> 00:38:54,600
Speaker 6: that would be optimistic scenario. Stop the words and renegotiate

743
00:38:54,680 --> 00:38:56,120
Speaker 6: international economic relations.

744
00:38:57,040 --> 00:38:58,680
Speaker 3: You were in Paris recently.

745
00:38:59,239 --> 00:39:04,680
Speaker 2: How are Europeans leads? How are they living with themselves

746
00:39:05,160 --> 00:39:07,960
Speaker 2: having come around to Trump's view on China. They must

747
00:39:08,000 --> 00:39:11,920
Speaker 2: drive them crazy, right, They must create this terrible psychic

748
00:39:12,160 --> 00:39:14,840
Speaker 2: toll on them to have to agree with Donald Trump

749
00:39:15,000 --> 00:39:18,120
Speaker 2: on something. But you hear it all the time from mergsmccrown,

750
00:39:18,200 --> 00:39:18,640
Speaker 2: et cetera.

751
00:39:19,000 --> 00:39:20,400
Speaker 3: How are they digest?

752
00:39:20,480 --> 00:39:23,239
Speaker 6: I don't think it was that hard because Germany definitely

753
00:39:23,719 --> 00:39:26,880
Speaker 6: has been affected by China in electric vehicles.

754
00:39:27,040 --> 00:39:29,200
Speaker 4: Yeah, no, no, clear, So it was clear.

755
00:39:29,280 --> 00:39:32,200
Speaker 6: I mean they side now with Trump because they do

756
00:39:32,400 --> 00:39:35,120
Speaker 6: have similar problems than I. No, I don't know, you

757
00:39:35,200 --> 00:39:39,040
Speaker 6: know the well, I don't really know European elites, but

758
00:39:39,200 --> 00:39:42,719
Speaker 6: you know what I find strange about Europe, I'm not

759
00:39:42,880 --> 00:39:46,120
Speaker 6: very optimistic on Europe for many reasons. But you know

760
00:39:46,200 --> 00:39:49,200
Speaker 6: what this find strange is that Europe really needed in

761
00:39:49,440 --> 00:39:53,160
Speaker 6: order to need actually in order to prosper to elements.

762
00:39:53,480 --> 00:39:57,160
Speaker 6: It first needs cheap energy, which was really fueling European

763
00:39:57,239 --> 00:39:59,880
Speaker 6: growth in the last forty years fifty years. But then

764
00:40:00,000 --> 00:40:02,400
Speaker 6: they decided, because of the war with Russia and Ukraine,

765
00:40:02,560 --> 00:40:05,680
Speaker 6: to just cut off Russian energy and to buy much

766
00:40:05,760 --> 00:40:08,520
Speaker 6: more expensive American art. Just say, well, that's kind of bizarre,

767
00:40:08,719 --> 00:40:11,920
Speaker 6: but okay, let's do it. Then it's also the continent

768
00:40:12,000 --> 00:40:15,000
Speaker 6: with the decline in population, and the only way to

769
00:40:15,120 --> 00:40:18,880
Speaker 6: stop the decline in population is to have immigration. But

770
00:40:19,040 --> 00:40:21,600
Speaker 6: then they say, and it's an increasing now they don't

771
00:40:21,640 --> 00:40:24,840
Speaker 6: want immigration at all. You have maybe Spain, it is

772
00:40:24,880 --> 00:40:27,360
Speaker 6: an outlier. It is in favor of immigration, but nobody

773
00:40:27,400 --> 00:40:29,560
Speaker 6: else does. If you look at Nordic countries, they.

774
00:40:29,480 --> 00:40:31,960
Speaker 3: Have don't let them immigrations, They don't let them in.

775
00:40:32,040 --> 00:40:32,200
Speaker 4: Yeah.

776
00:40:32,600 --> 00:40:36,880
Speaker 3: No, in Spain they're liberal towards Latin American, yes.

777
00:40:36,760 --> 00:40:38,800
Speaker 4: But they're libertal immigration in general.

778
00:40:38,840 --> 00:40:42,040
Speaker 6: And actually Sanchez's government is totally at odds with everybody

779
00:40:42,080 --> 00:40:46,120
Speaker 6: else on that on immigration, and so they need people,

780
00:40:46,400 --> 00:40:49,080
Speaker 6: but they don't want people they need cheap energy, but

781
00:40:49,120 --> 00:40:51,520
Speaker 6: they decided to cut off the energy, and then China

782
00:40:51,600 --> 00:40:55,040
Speaker 6: shock comes, especially to Germany, so they are in I think,

783
00:40:55,120 --> 00:40:58,279
Speaker 6: different situation, and in such a situation they have found

784
00:40:58,320 --> 00:41:01,560
Speaker 6: some sympathy for Trump, but there may be some feint

785
00:41:01,640 --> 00:41:04,600
Speaker 6: sympathy as well because they treat I think actually many

786
00:41:04,640 --> 00:41:08,080
Speaker 6: people treat Trump like a tiger in a cage. You're

787
00:41:08,160 --> 00:41:10,880
Speaker 6: with the tiger there and you just want to survive

788
00:41:11,200 --> 00:41:13,400
Speaker 6: until the tiger is gone, you know. So you just

789
00:41:13,480 --> 00:41:15,960
Speaker 6: placed the tiger and say, okay, you know, you big tiger,

790
00:41:16,040 --> 00:41:19,239
Speaker 6: you are great, but you don't really believe that. So

791
00:41:19,400 --> 00:41:20,480
Speaker 6: there is that part as well.

792
00:41:20,560 --> 00:41:23,360
Speaker 5: I think i'd say more about your recent trip to China,

793
00:41:23,640 --> 00:41:26,680
Speaker 5: and I assume you met some Chinese elites over there

794
00:41:26,760 --> 00:41:27,520
Speaker 5: and talk to them.

795
00:41:27,880 --> 00:41:30,839
Speaker 6: It was really about economic history, and it was super

796
00:41:30,920 --> 00:41:33,960
Speaker 6: interesting because the conferences that I went to there are

797
00:41:34,040 --> 00:41:37,239
Speaker 6: in three different Beijing, Shanghai, and then also one in

798
00:41:37,320 --> 00:41:40,279
Speaker 6: a smaller city, Gangship Province, which is in the south,

799
00:41:40,760 --> 00:41:44,760
Speaker 6: very sort of tropical. We talked about the Great Divergence

800
00:41:44,920 --> 00:41:47,880
Speaker 6: and that was why that was a topic which very

801
00:41:47,920 --> 00:41:50,879
Speaker 6: popular among historians. Why is that the industry evolution took

802
00:41:50,920 --> 00:41:53,160
Speaker 6: place in England and not in China. If you look

803
00:41:53,200 --> 00:41:56,160
Speaker 6: at seventeen fifteen, the two countries are a similar level

804
00:41:56,200 --> 00:42:00,279
Speaker 6: of development. China is big, has many technological innovations. They

805
00:42:00,320 --> 00:42:03,040
Speaker 6: have a book of technological innovations over two thousand years

806
00:42:03,080 --> 00:42:05,640
Speaker 6: and so on. So the story of the conference was

807
00:42:05,680 --> 00:42:08,239
Speaker 6: about that. But then because of my book is merely

808
00:42:08,400 --> 00:42:11,920
Speaker 6: now the great convergence of China. Then of course that

809
00:42:12,120 --> 00:42:15,040
Speaker 6: was interesting because it is to some extent a pounddown

810
00:42:15,239 --> 00:42:19,720
Speaker 6: of what happened before. And it is interesting to speak

811
00:42:19,800 --> 00:42:22,640
Speaker 6: obviously to many people. These are people at universities and

812
00:42:22,719 --> 00:42:24,960
Speaker 6: so on. As I was saying before, many people have

813
00:42:25,120 --> 00:42:27,239
Speaker 6: a little bit of a disbelief that they are the

814
00:42:27,360 --> 00:42:27,840
Speaker 6: rich country.

815
00:42:28,000 --> 00:42:28,799
Speaker 4: I was going to ask, do you.

816
00:42:28,840 --> 00:42:31,879
Speaker 5: Get any pushback on the convergence thesis or not? Really?

817
00:42:32,120 --> 00:42:35,520
Speaker 6: Not really, But for example, what I did get is

818
00:42:35,680 --> 00:42:38,600
Speaker 6: that when I was given that presentation for a while

819
00:42:38,840 --> 00:42:41,560
Speaker 6: in China, I talked about global inequality, and I say,

820
00:42:41,920 --> 00:42:45,680
Speaker 6: between nineteen ninety and actually until probably until several years ago,

821
00:42:46,160 --> 00:42:50,160
Speaker 6: China was a sort of automatic reducer to global inequality

822
00:42:50,200 --> 00:42:52,399
Speaker 6: because it's a big country, it was still actively poor,

823
00:42:52,680 --> 00:42:55,520
Speaker 6: and they grow faster, and global inequality goes down and

824
00:42:55,680 --> 00:42:58,760
Speaker 6: then I say, but that's no longer the case today.

825
00:42:58,960 --> 00:43:04,399
Speaker 6: Chinese high growth is slightly inequality increasing at the world level,

826
00:43:04,800 --> 00:43:09,120
Speaker 6: because China then becomes further apart from poor countries like Sudan, Ethiopia,

827
00:43:09,440 --> 00:43:12,200
Speaker 6: Congo and so on, gets closer to the US. But

828
00:43:12,320 --> 00:43:15,319
Speaker 6: the first element is stronger than the second. So when

829
00:43:15,400 --> 00:43:18,080
Speaker 6: I say to them that was interesting young people, especially

830
00:43:18,239 --> 00:43:21,719
Speaker 6: when I say to them Chinese growth today is globally

831
00:43:21,880 --> 00:43:26,960
Speaker 6: inequality increasing, they almost took it like it's an insult.

832
00:43:27,080 --> 00:43:29,640
Speaker 6: So you're telling us we should not grow. I said, no, guys,

833
00:43:29,960 --> 00:43:33,360
Speaker 6: this isn't arithmetical thing. It is simply that your country

834
00:43:33,480 --> 00:43:37,200
Speaker 6: has become too rich now. Arithmetically, if you grow at

835
00:43:37,239 --> 00:43:41,440
Speaker 6: eight percent, it's going to increase global inequality. Maybe you

836
00:43:41,480 --> 00:43:44,399
Speaker 6: should distribute within China, but I'm not talking about that much.

837
00:43:44,640 --> 00:43:46,839
Speaker 6: But what we find it interesting is that people are

838
00:43:46,960 --> 00:43:49,600
Speaker 6: still really, as I was saying before, they have little

839
00:43:49,640 --> 00:43:52,400
Speaker 6: bit of a problem getting adjusted to the fact that

840
00:43:52,560 --> 00:43:55,120
Speaker 6: they are now not a very rich country, but they

841
00:43:55,160 --> 00:43:58,240
Speaker 6: have joined the club around the club of the rich countries.

842
00:44:00,080 --> 00:44:03,240
Speaker 2: Do you think that this China anxiety that's so prevalent

843
00:44:03,560 --> 00:44:06,880
Speaker 2: in the US, Europe, maybe Japan and Korea, et cetera.

844
00:44:07,360 --> 00:44:10,640
Speaker 2: Do you think it will spread further and become a

845
00:44:10,719 --> 00:44:15,120
Speaker 2: thing in the actual poorer parts of the world, who

846
00:44:15,200 --> 00:44:19,600
Speaker 2: presumably have industrial ambitions of their own. I mean, Brazil

847
00:44:19,719 --> 00:44:23,120
Speaker 2: has a planemaker, they presumably the Komak is going to

848
00:44:23,200 --> 00:44:25,120
Speaker 2: compete with embra air, et cetera.

849
00:44:25,719 --> 00:44:27,880
Speaker 3: Like could China find.

850
00:44:27,640 --> 00:44:31,400
Speaker 2: Itself in a situation in which there was recently a

851
00:44:31,480 --> 00:44:36,680
Speaker 2: story Malaysia specifically limiting the number of imports of low.

852
00:44:36,600 --> 00:44:39,680
Speaker 3: End Chinese EV's Like.

853
00:44:40,080 --> 00:44:43,200
Speaker 2: Could what, okay, it started in the US with Trump

854
00:44:43,719 --> 00:44:46,200
Speaker 2: spread to Europe over the last several years, could have

855
00:44:46,280 --> 00:44:46,960
Speaker 2: spread further?

856
00:44:47,480 --> 00:44:47,839
Speaker 4: It could?

857
00:44:47,960 --> 00:44:49,600
Speaker 6: But you know, let me just say that's actually what

858
00:44:49,800 --> 00:44:53,080
Speaker 6: one of my book is good. This is national market liberal. Yeah,

859
00:44:53,160 --> 00:44:55,480
Speaker 6: it's actually a liberal It's a limit to the national market.

860
00:44:55,760 --> 00:44:58,279
Speaker 6: So we really now totally think in terms like what

861
00:44:58,440 --> 00:45:01,120
Speaker 6: are we doing? Is Malaysia to stop these goods? Is

862
00:45:01,160 --> 00:45:03,560
Speaker 6: Brazil going to stop other goods? There was recently an

863
00:45:03,640 --> 00:45:07,880
Speaker 6: article I think in Foreign Affairs by Subramanian and another culture,

864
00:45:08,480 --> 00:45:12,560
Speaker 6: mostly from the Indians Indian perspective, but essentially saying, if

865
00:45:12,680 --> 00:45:16,800
Speaker 6: China is better in high end manufacturing and middle and

866
00:45:17,160 --> 00:45:20,640
Speaker 6: level manufacturing, then countries that would normally go into middle

867
00:45:20,880 --> 00:45:23,919
Speaker 6: level manufacturing actually would be also spaced out by China.

868
00:45:24,160 --> 00:45:26,640
Speaker 6: But then I really have problem with that argument because

869
00:45:26,719 --> 00:45:30,560
Speaker 6: you're thinking, well, we are all cavetting here because China

870
00:45:30,640 --> 00:45:33,719
Speaker 6: is too efficient and too good. That doesn't make sense.

871
00:45:33,840 --> 00:45:36,600
Speaker 6: If China is efficient and too good and producing x

872
00:45:36,800 --> 00:45:39,880
Speaker 6: y and z, let them be producing x y and z.

873
00:45:40,120 --> 00:45:41,680
Speaker 6: Why do we complain about this?

874
00:45:42,080 --> 00:45:44,919
Speaker 3: Well, okay, I have a thought why we might want

875
00:45:45,000 --> 00:45:47,279
Speaker 3: to complain about this? So clearly, we.

876
00:45:47,520 --> 00:45:52,240
Speaker 2: All enjoy every day the benefits of efficient Chinese production,

877
00:45:52,400 --> 00:45:56,040
Speaker 2: and we have affordable computers and affordable phones and lots

878
00:45:56,080 --> 00:46:00,640
Speaker 2: of other things and inexpensive toys, et cetera. One reason

879
00:46:01,239 --> 00:46:03,879
Speaker 2: we might not love that is that if you can't

880
00:46:03,920 --> 00:46:07,760
Speaker 2: build a car, if you can't build like, you can't

881
00:46:07,800 --> 00:46:11,239
Speaker 2: build a tank. Ultimately, right the dual use technologies, you

882
00:46:11,440 --> 00:46:15,440
Speaker 2: lose the manufacturing muscle, and you lose that manufacturing muscle

883
00:46:15,480 --> 00:46:18,320
Speaker 2: for commercial goods, and then you no longer have the

884
00:46:18,400 --> 00:46:21,560
Speaker 2: muscle for military. And if you can't do that, as

885
00:46:21,680 --> 00:46:24,799
Speaker 2: Alexander Hamilton said, you don't have sovereignty as a nation.

886
00:46:25,880 --> 00:46:29,040
Speaker 2: This is like, you know, great, we all love these benefits.

887
00:46:29,200 --> 00:46:32,480
Speaker 2: I love cheap things as much as anyone. But like this,

888
00:46:32,640 --> 00:46:36,080
Speaker 2: when I think about the world order, if no country

889
00:46:36,200 --> 00:46:40,239
Speaker 2: can like actually protect itself militarily because they've lost, that

890
00:46:40,400 --> 00:46:43,080
Speaker 2: has become totally hollowed out, isn't that a reason to

891
00:46:43,120 --> 00:46:43,600
Speaker 2: be anxious?

892
00:46:43,760 --> 00:46:44,680
Speaker 4: No, no, there is a reason.

893
00:46:44,760 --> 00:46:46,600
Speaker 6: But then you go to chapter two and you say, well,

894
00:46:46,800 --> 00:46:50,719
Speaker 6: I agree with Hobson, Landing and Rosa Luxembourg. Openness is war.

895
00:46:51,200 --> 00:46:55,680
Speaker 6: That means basically we cannot have ideologically and openness that

896
00:46:56,120 --> 00:47:00,279
Speaker 6: is actually open without thinking about golf. And I think

897
00:47:00,280 --> 00:47:02,719
Speaker 6: it's legitimate stuff because of course conflict has been with

898
00:47:02,880 --> 00:47:06,279
Speaker 6: us for so long. But that is the question of

899
00:47:06,360 --> 00:47:09,520
Speaker 6: what we started that with your belief and my own belief,

900
00:47:09,560 --> 00:47:12,160
Speaker 6: and I think your belief in the nineteen nineties that

901
00:47:12,360 --> 00:47:16,080
Speaker 6: all these contradictions are gone, that there was neo liberalism

902
00:47:16,120 --> 00:47:18,800
Speaker 6: but it's ruling everything. There will be no conflict, that

903
00:47:18,920 --> 00:47:20,880
Speaker 6: we don't have to think about that And if somebody

904
00:47:20,960 --> 00:47:23,200
Speaker 6: produces X, Y, and Z, that's excellent and so on.

905
00:47:23,560 --> 00:47:26,400
Speaker 5: Joe and I both did international relations degrees in the

906
00:47:26,480 --> 00:47:29,960
Speaker 5: early two thousands school we are well aware of the

907
00:47:30,080 --> 00:47:31,520
Speaker 5: society and.

908
00:47:31,760 --> 00:47:35,160
Speaker 6: That actually I agree with the real world is such

909
00:47:35,200 --> 00:47:38,440
Speaker 6: as you described it, But that simply means that the

910
00:47:38,520 --> 00:47:41,640
Speaker 6: world that we believed in nineteen ninety was not the

911
00:47:41,719 --> 00:47:44,279
Speaker 6: real world. That is a fantasy one. Yeah, and that

912
00:47:44,480 --> 00:47:47,800
Speaker 6: means that that ideology which underpinned fantasy world was a

913
00:47:47,840 --> 00:47:50,839
Speaker 6: fantasy ideology. So I understand from the point of view

914
00:47:50,880 --> 00:47:53,160
Speaker 6: of military technology and all of that that, of course

915
00:47:53,160 --> 00:47:57,080
Speaker 6: countries cannot simply particularly large big powers small countries.

916
00:47:57,120 --> 00:47:57,839
Speaker 4: It doesn't really matter.

917
00:47:58,120 --> 00:48:00,440
Speaker 6: For big powers, it doesn't matter because then if big

918
00:48:00,480 --> 00:48:03,960
Speaker 6: powers need helicopters and they cannot produce helicopters because they

919
00:48:04,000 --> 00:48:06,360
Speaker 6: don't have any industrial capacity, yes they're not going to

920
00:48:06,400 --> 00:48:08,640
Speaker 6: have helicopters, and that would be as we see now

921
00:48:08,680 --> 00:48:10,800
Speaker 6: with drones and so on. So I agree from the

922
00:48:11,160 --> 00:48:15,400
Speaker 6: point of view of national security, yes, one has to

923
00:48:15,600 --> 00:48:18,440
Speaker 6: be not concerned about China because I hate China bashing,

924
00:48:18,680 --> 00:48:22,440
Speaker 6: but to be concerned about other countries in general, you know,

925
00:48:22,719 --> 00:48:25,680
Speaker 6: because everybody who is your ally might not become your

926
00:48:25,719 --> 00:48:26,400
Speaker 6: ally tomorrow.

927
00:48:26,440 --> 00:48:26,840
Speaker 4: You never know.

928
00:48:27,120 --> 00:48:29,400
Speaker 6: So in that sense, yes, I agree with Alexander Hamilton.

929
00:48:29,680 --> 00:48:31,640
Speaker 6: But as I said, then we're really in a different

930
00:48:31,760 --> 00:48:35,600
Speaker 6: world from the world of unimpeded free trade, where basically

931
00:48:35,719 --> 00:48:39,600
Speaker 6: you don't believe that you know, significant military considerations. I

932
00:48:39,600 --> 00:48:41,440
Speaker 6: would not say zero, but not significant.

933
00:48:42,320 --> 00:48:47,920
Speaker 5: Most of your work famously focuses on inequality and distributional

934
00:48:48,040 --> 00:48:50,600
Speaker 5: effects and that sort of thing. When you look at

935
00:48:50,640 --> 00:48:55,120
Speaker 5: the tools of you know, again this national market liberalism,

936
00:48:55,280 --> 00:49:01,120
Speaker 5: we think about sanctions or you know, tariffs, obviously industrial policy,

937
00:49:01,320 --> 00:49:06,279
Speaker 5: things like that. Do you have a preferred tool that

938
00:49:07,360 --> 00:49:11,480
Speaker 5: would come with some distributional benefits rather than just you know,

939
00:49:11,640 --> 00:49:14,440
Speaker 5: like shuffling rents between countries.

940
00:49:14,239 --> 00:49:16,319
Speaker 6: When it comes to global income inequality, and I've been

941
00:49:16,360 --> 00:49:18,719
Speaker 6: working on that, as you know for many years. The

942
00:49:18,960 --> 00:49:21,960
Speaker 6: irononic stuff about that is when if you want to

943
00:49:22,000 --> 00:49:26,040
Speaker 6: reduce global income inequality between individuals, you really have to

944
00:49:26,080 --> 00:49:30,520
Speaker 6: worry about growth because the best way to reduce, and

945
00:49:30,760 --> 00:49:34,040
Speaker 6: particularly the only way at the global level, is high

946
00:49:34,160 --> 00:49:37,600
Speaker 6: growth rates of poor countries. And that's why Africa in

947
00:49:37,719 --> 00:49:39,359
Speaker 6: that point of view, and that's what we were selling

948
00:49:39,400 --> 00:49:41,680
Speaker 6: to Chinese students when they were surprised that Chinese no

949
00:49:41,800 --> 00:49:45,080
Speaker 6: longer I say to them, the key point now is

950
00:49:45,320 --> 00:49:50,040
Speaker 6: India's growth, and especially Africa, because Africa, you have five

951
00:49:50,200 --> 00:49:53,360
Speaker 6: large countries. One hundred million people are actually two hundred

952
00:49:53,360 --> 00:49:56,440
Speaker 6: and twenties is Nigeria, but other is about one hundred million.

953
00:49:56,680 --> 00:49:59,160
Speaker 6: So we are talking there about these five or six

954
00:49:59,239 --> 00:50:02,520
Speaker 6: countries with the one billion people and growing the only

955
00:50:02,600 --> 00:50:04,480
Speaker 6: part of the world which is going a two percent

956
00:50:04,960 --> 00:50:09,000
Speaker 6: annually in terms of population. So that really is going

957
00:50:09,040 --> 00:50:11,120
Speaker 6: to define twenty first century. Are we going to have

958
00:50:11,280 --> 00:50:15,560
Speaker 6: reduction in global inequality or not? If Africa doesn't catch up,

959
00:50:15,719 --> 00:50:18,239
Speaker 6: we will have another increase in global inequality. So when

960
00:50:18,280 --> 00:50:20,719
Speaker 6: it comes to global inequality, you really have to worry

961
00:50:20,760 --> 00:50:24,319
Speaker 6: about growth. When it comes to inequality with the nation state,

962
00:50:24,560 --> 00:50:26,920
Speaker 6: then of course the situation is different. You have a

963
00:50:27,040 --> 00:50:30,000
Speaker 6: host of policies that are quite well known. You know,

964
00:50:30,360 --> 00:50:33,320
Speaker 6: education I think is crucially important in my opinion. And

965
00:50:33,800 --> 00:50:36,200
Speaker 6: you know, I'm not a huge fan of slapping a

966
00:50:36,360 --> 00:50:39,040
Speaker 6: tax on anything. You know, some people immediately just want

967
00:50:39,080 --> 00:50:42,319
Speaker 6: to tax everything. But I do actually believe that there

968
00:50:42,440 --> 00:50:47,040
Speaker 6: is a case for taxing extraordinary wealth. And I've called

969
00:50:47,080 --> 00:50:49,960
Speaker 6: it in my Sep Stuck, I called it a pedagogical tax.

970
00:50:50,360 --> 00:50:51,120
Speaker 4: And I tell you why.

971
00:50:51,120 --> 00:50:54,040
Speaker 6: It is pedagogical because you have to tell people with

972
00:50:54,200 --> 00:50:57,560
Speaker 6: extraordinary wealth, you are not going to rule us. I

973
00:50:57,640 --> 00:51:00,160
Speaker 6: don't care how many billions you have, You're not going

974
00:51:00,239 --> 00:51:02,279
Speaker 6: to rule us. And in order for you not to

975
00:51:02,320 --> 00:51:04,359
Speaker 6: be able to rule us, I'm going to have an

976
00:51:04,400 --> 00:51:07,960
Speaker 6: extortionary tax on you every year, and it is a

977
00:51:08,040 --> 00:51:10,960
Speaker 6: pedagogical tax. That's what zuopoint is actually calling for. That

978
00:51:11,000 --> 00:51:14,160
Speaker 6: Picqutti is calling for even stronger tax. I don't really

979
00:51:14,239 --> 00:51:16,400
Speaker 6: have a view where it should be two twenty percent

980
00:51:16,440 --> 00:51:19,080
Speaker 6: of that, but I think that should be a pedagogical text.

981
00:51:19,160 --> 00:51:20,800
Speaker 3: There's one line in your book I didn't really like

982
00:51:21,040 --> 00:51:21,840
Speaker 3: or I didn't get it that.

983
00:51:22,080 --> 00:51:24,719
Speaker 4: Maybe more lines didn't I didn't maybe I didn't get it.

984
00:51:25,000 --> 00:51:25,600
Speaker 3: I didn't like it.

985
00:51:26,000 --> 00:51:27,040
Speaker 4: There are many things when.

986
00:51:28,960 --> 00:51:31,319
Speaker 2: Says it is in this context that we should look

987
00:51:31,320 --> 00:51:34,280
Speaker 2: at the politics of Donald Trump, Jesion ping In, Vladimir Putin.

988
00:51:34,360 --> 00:51:37,880
Speaker 2: Their policies try to stem or control the rise to

989
00:51:38,000 --> 00:51:41,719
Speaker 2: complete economic and political dominance of the money elites.

990
00:51:42,719 --> 00:51:43,640
Speaker 3: This strikes me.

991
00:51:43,719 --> 00:51:46,640
Speaker 2: With Trump in particular, is a thing i'd see post

992
00:51:46,760 --> 00:51:49,719
Speaker 2: liberals like to say on Twitter, and they fantasize that

993
00:51:49,880 --> 00:51:54,879
Speaker 2: he's sort of like secretly, I don't know, secretly heterodox

994
00:51:54,960 --> 00:51:57,320
Speaker 2: economics or something like that. When I look at the

995
00:51:57,520 --> 00:52:03,320
Speaker 2: actual administration, I see a administration that is very orthodox.

996
00:52:03,400 --> 00:52:05,759
Speaker 3: When it comes to tax cuts on the ridge, I.

997
00:52:05,800 --> 00:52:11,760
Speaker 2: See an administration that has invited big business leaders into

998
00:52:12,360 --> 00:52:16,320
Speaker 2: the operations of government at a degree that's sort of unparalleled.

999
00:52:16,760 --> 00:52:20,279
Speaker 2: In what sense is it defensible to put Trump in

1000
00:52:20,360 --> 00:52:21,040
Speaker 2: this category?

1001
00:52:21,480 --> 00:52:23,360
Speaker 6: It's a very good cutching because it raises also the

1002
00:52:23,400 --> 00:52:28,200
Speaker 6: issue that I address, and by talking about national market liberalism,

1003
00:52:28,280 --> 00:52:31,480
Speaker 6: I actually put Trump in a category of people domestically

1004
00:52:31,800 --> 00:52:34,680
Speaker 6: that pursuisson continues and actually in some sense deepens the

1005
00:52:34,760 --> 00:52:38,600
Speaker 6: policies of near liberalism domestically. But what they wanted to

1006
00:52:38,880 --> 00:52:41,040
Speaker 6: say here, maybe it was not clear, but what they

1007
00:52:41,080 --> 00:52:45,000
Speaker 6: wanted to say is they came to power on the

1008
00:52:45,160 --> 00:52:50,040
Speaker 6: basis of support that was that came from parts of

1009
00:52:50,120 --> 00:52:54,960
Speaker 6: the population that were resentful about the people who the

1010
00:52:55,080 --> 00:52:58,040
Speaker 6: winners of the near liberal globalization for the US. I

1011
00:52:58,080 --> 00:53:00,560
Speaker 6: don't need to expand on all that picture for Trump.

1012
00:53:00,760 --> 00:53:03,560
Speaker 6: It has been studied, you know, in extent, so much

1013
00:53:03,600 --> 00:53:06,560
Speaker 6: more than I know. But the fact is the seventy

1014
00:53:06,640 --> 00:53:08,799
Speaker 6: seven million people actually voted for him, and I think

1015
00:53:08,920 --> 00:53:12,479
Speaker 6: essentially voted because they were unhappy with what they have seen.

1016
00:53:12,600 --> 00:53:15,320
Speaker 6: They were expecting much more, they got much less. So

1017
00:53:15,480 --> 00:53:18,840
Speaker 6: I think in that sense he fashioned himself as somebody

1018
00:53:18,920 --> 00:53:21,120
Speaker 6: who is fighting the elites.

1019
00:53:20,920 --> 00:53:23,160
Speaker 4: Of course, in reality is not. Actually he is not

1020
00:53:23,280 --> 00:53:24,240
Speaker 4: only part of the elite.

1021
00:53:24,239 --> 00:53:26,360
Speaker 6: He has, as you said, brought them all in, and

1022
00:53:26,600 --> 00:53:30,240
Speaker 6: he does follow very conservative policies when it comes to taxes. Actually,

1023
00:53:30,480 --> 00:53:34,719
Speaker 6: of course taxing capital less than labor, taxing top less,

1024
00:53:34,760 --> 00:53:36,799
Speaker 6: I mean not less, but actually not increasing the tax

1025
00:53:36,920 --> 00:53:37,360
Speaker 6: rates and so on.

1026
00:53:37,760 --> 00:53:38,600
Speaker 4: So I agree.

1027
00:53:38,640 --> 00:53:40,239
Speaker 6: So what I wanted to say there, maybe it was

1028
00:53:40,320 --> 00:53:43,600
Speaker 6: not clear the reasons for them coming to power was

1029
00:53:43,680 --> 00:53:47,680
Speaker 6: that the significant section of the population was unhappy with

1030
00:53:47,840 --> 00:53:50,720
Speaker 6: neo liberal globalization. And I think in the case interesting

1031
00:53:50,800 --> 00:53:53,560
Speaker 6: case is she Jinpin for me putting as well, but

1032
00:53:53,640 --> 00:53:56,680
Speaker 6: Shijin Pin. But the's interesting is I think he came

1033
00:53:57,760 --> 00:54:02,279
Speaker 6: because and he actually explicitly said that he doesn't want

1034
00:54:02,640 --> 00:54:07,040
Speaker 6: rich people to enter the decision making bodies of the

1035
00:54:07,080 --> 00:54:10,520
Speaker 6: companist part. It's the pedagogical point, you yeah, pedagogical he

1036
00:54:10,560 --> 00:54:13,120
Speaker 6: says to the rich people, as China historically had the

1037
00:54:13,200 --> 00:54:17,000
Speaker 6: case merchants, Yes, you get rich, do extremely well, but

1038
00:54:17,160 --> 00:54:19,440
Speaker 6: don't come here and tell us what we should be doing.

1039
00:54:20,000 --> 00:54:23,000
Speaker 6: We decide and you get rich. And I think actually

1040
00:54:23,239 --> 00:54:26,480
Speaker 6: under Jiang Zemin he had this policy of the three represents,

1041
00:54:26,600 --> 00:54:30,560
Speaker 6: which ideologically justified the influence of the rich people in

1042
00:54:30,719 --> 00:54:32,920
Speaker 6: the Communist Party, and I think it's very clear that

1043
00:54:33,080 --> 00:54:35,320
Speaker 6: with the hijipin there is a purge of such people

1044
00:54:35,680 --> 00:54:39,600
Speaker 6: out so they can be still rich. I heard the story,

1045
00:54:39,680 --> 00:54:42,560
Speaker 6: maybe it's apocryphal. You guys must know that, probably much

1046
00:54:42,600 --> 00:54:44,920
Speaker 6: better than I. But I was told when Jackma was

1047
00:54:44,960 --> 00:54:47,560
Speaker 6: told that he's not going to have his IPO, the

1048
00:54:47,680 --> 00:54:51,080
Speaker 6: phone call was made by the mid level official in

1049
00:54:51,160 --> 00:54:54,920
Speaker 6: the Ministry of Finance, and things don't happen by accident

1050
00:54:55,000 --> 00:54:55,480
Speaker 6: in China.

1051
00:54:55,880 --> 00:54:56,920
Speaker 4: That was a message.

1052
00:54:57,760 --> 00:55:01,320
Speaker 6: You don't treat with the minister of your treat with

1053
00:55:01,440 --> 00:55:02,800
Speaker 6: the mid level official.

1054
00:55:02,880 --> 00:55:03,640
Speaker 4: That's your level.

1055
00:55:03,800 --> 00:55:06,880
Speaker 2: Bronco Milanovich, thank you so much for coming on the podcast.

1056
00:55:07,239 --> 00:55:10,200
Speaker 2: Very fun conversation. Really appreciate you taking your time.

1057
00:55:10,280 --> 00:55:12,120
Speaker 4: Well, thank you very much for inviting me. It was

1058
00:55:12,160 --> 00:55:12,480
Speaker 4: really fun.

1059
00:55:12,520 --> 00:55:15,440
Speaker 6: Actually, I'll love these conversations that they're actually unscripted, and.

1060
00:55:15,480 --> 00:55:16,719
Speaker 4: Yeah, that's how I'd like to do it.

1061
00:55:16,880 --> 00:55:19,080
Speaker 3: Let's just, you know, just a little tour around the world.

1062
00:55:19,120 --> 00:55:20,520
Speaker 3: But no, that was great, Thank you so much.

1063
00:55:33,320 --> 00:55:36,280
Speaker 2: Up until prepping for this episode, I'd just like totally

1064
00:55:36,320 --> 00:55:39,839
Speaker 2: forgotten about the elephant chart and how that was like, man,

1065
00:55:39,920 --> 00:55:42,840
Speaker 2: that must have been in a million slide presentations in

1066
00:55:43,040 --> 00:55:46,080
Speaker 2: like twenty fifteen and twenty fourteen, et cetera.

1067
00:55:46,760 --> 00:55:50,400
Speaker 5: Joe, Yes, can I be in the room when you

1068
00:55:50,520 --> 00:55:53,320
Speaker 5: tell your children that they're not getting an inheritance because

1069
00:55:53,360 --> 00:55:56,360
Speaker 5: you need to prove your folks see credentials.

1070
00:55:56,680 --> 00:56:00,480
Speaker 2: Well, I assume they, you know, fortune to have a

1071
00:56:00,520 --> 00:56:03,680
Speaker 2: little bit leftover that they will get some inheritance. But

1072
00:56:03,800 --> 00:56:07,080
Speaker 2: my daughter recently, like I don't know if it's like

1073
00:56:07,120 --> 00:56:11,360
Speaker 2: from the TV show or a friend, I don't know.

1074
00:56:12,080 --> 00:56:16,040
Speaker 2: She learned the term trust fund recently and she she's like, oh,

1075
00:56:16,080 --> 00:56:17,680
Speaker 2: do I get a trust fund? And I was like,

1076
00:56:17,920 --> 00:56:21,000
Speaker 2: absolutely not, that's not something in your future. And then

1077
00:56:21,040 --> 00:56:23,239
Speaker 2: she was like disappointed, and I was like, no, no,

1078
00:56:23,480 --> 00:56:25,959
Speaker 2: Like you have to understand, no, even if no one.

1079
00:56:25,960 --> 00:56:28,879
Speaker 3: Respects those this is why you don't want money. Yeah,

1080
00:56:29,160 --> 00:56:30,239
Speaker 3: it's like, no, no, no one.

1081
00:56:30,200 --> 00:56:34,800
Speaker 2: Respects those people, et cetera. So she is learning about

1082
00:56:34,880 --> 00:56:37,600
Speaker 2: the world of you know, so far, I've told her

1083
00:56:38,160 --> 00:56:40,640
Speaker 2: she'll inherit something. I hope I have a little cash

1084
00:56:40,719 --> 00:56:42,520
Speaker 2: left over, She'll not be getting a trust fund.

1085
00:56:43,000 --> 00:56:45,920
Speaker 5: Anyway. That was a fascinating conversation. Yeah, and I do

1086
00:56:46,040 --> 00:56:47,879
Speaker 5: think this is like the big story of our time.

1087
00:56:48,360 --> 00:56:51,600
Speaker 5: The source of like turning away from globalization and bringing

1088
00:56:51,719 --> 00:56:55,200
Speaker 5: everything more inwards. I do think it's it's very interesting

1089
00:56:55,280 --> 00:56:59,120
Speaker 5: and perhaps telling that so much of the policy, you know,

1090
00:56:59,520 --> 00:57:03,320
Speaker 5: we're talking about people who are upset because they're not

1091
00:57:03,680 --> 00:57:06,760
Speaker 5: getting as wealthy as they once could have been basically,

1092
00:57:07,719 --> 00:57:10,160
Speaker 5: And I think it's interesting and telling that the policy

1093
00:57:10,239 --> 00:57:14,480
Speaker 5: solutions to that are all very much focused outward, things

1094
00:57:14,560 --> 00:57:18,720
Speaker 5: like terroiffs and things like that, rather than anything focused domestically.

1095
00:57:18,880 --> 00:57:21,480
Speaker 5: So domestically you still get market liberalism.

1096
00:57:21,680 --> 00:57:24,480
Speaker 2: Yeah, no, I think that's interesting. You know, I remember,

1097
00:57:24,560 --> 00:57:26,720
Speaker 2: like again going back to the twenty tens, and I was,

1098
00:57:26,840 --> 00:57:28,760
Speaker 2: you know, you see that elephant chart. What the elephant

1099
00:57:28,880 --> 00:57:33,840
Speaker 2: chart showed was that like on a global scale, the

1100
00:57:34,000 --> 00:57:38,040
Speaker 2: new middle class was coming from Asia, right, China, Asia

1101
00:57:38,200 --> 00:57:40,439
Speaker 2: in general more broadly, which he talks about in the book.

1102
00:57:40,520 --> 00:57:43,720
Speaker 2: But on the flip side, it's like, Okay, so some

1103
00:57:44,040 --> 00:57:47,360
Speaker 2: person who's sort of like in the middle of Italy, right,

1104
00:57:47,560 --> 00:57:51,640
Speaker 2: like they're pretty wealthy by global standards, if their status

1105
00:57:51,920 --> 00:57:54,960
Speaker 2: in the globe goes down because suddenly a lot more

1106
00:57:55,000 --> 00:57:59,800
Speaker 2: people are wealthy in China and Korea, Vietnam, etc.

1107
00:58:01,160 --> 00:58:03,720
Speaker 3: I'm like, I don't really see how that hurts them, right.

1108
00:58:04,880 --> 00:58:08,560
Speaker 2: It was interes Like the World Cup ticket example, is

1109
00:58:08,720 --> 00:58:11,000
Speaker 2: sort of a symptom of this phenomenon.

1110
00:58:12,080 --> 00:58:14,160
Speaker 3: There aren't that many things.

1111
00:58:13,960 --> 00:58:17,360
Speaker 2: That are like the World Cup where the existence of

1112
00:58:17,480 --> 00:58:22,040
Speaker 2: wealthy people elsewhere actually diminishes your relative you know, you

1113
00:58:22,160 --> 00:58:24,520
Speaker 2: do see a few things like this, like the you know,

1114
00:58:24,600 --> 00:58:29,160
Speaker 2: people observe that, like the Disney vacation is not as

1115
00:58:29,240 --> 00:58:32,320
Speaker 2: available to like a median household the way it would

1116
00:58:32,320 --> 00:58:35,040
Speaker 2: have been in the seventies or eighties because they're just

1117
00:58:35,120 --> 00:58:37,320
Speaker 2: like so many more people.

1118
00:58:37,200 --> 00:58:40,320
Speaker 5: Who like Right, it's also a competitive is competitive in

1119
00:58:40,400 --> 00:58:41,560
Speaker 5: the same way as the World Cup.

1120
00:58:41,720 --> 00:58:46,439
Speaker 2: I am also a little bit skeptical of the sort

1121
00:58:46,480 --> 00:58:51,600
Speaker 2: of basic economics claim that, say, the rise of Donald Trump,

1122
00:58:52,000 --> 00:58:54,480
Speaker 2: or the success I would say electorally of Donald Trump

1123
00:58:55,080 --> 00:58:58,280
Speaker 2: is about this like aggrieved. There is like this sort

1124
00:58:58,320 --> 00:59:01,920
Speaker 2: of like, of course, there's this anti elite maybe anti

1125
00:59:02,160 --> 00:59:04,800
Speaker 2: liberal elite tinge to it. But another big part of

1126
00:59:04,880 --> 00:59:08,320
Speaker 2: it his success in twenty sixteen was build the wall, right,

1127
00:59:08,360 --> 00:59:10,760
Speaker 2: which is like a very different thing. It's about keeping

1128
00:59:11,320 --> 00:59:14,240
Speaker 2: other people out. There's very little to do with sort

1129
00:59:14,280 --> 00:59:16,800
Speaker 2: of like you know, the sort of like success of

1130
00:59:17,200 --> 00:59:18,680
Speaker 2: wealthy people in the United States.

1131
00:59:18,760 --> 00:59:22,160
Speaker 5: You're not building a wall to keep out Mexican transformers.

1132
00:59:22,320 --> 00:59:25,600
Speaker 2: It was a huge part of the success in twenty sixteen,

1133
00:59:26,160 --> 00:59:29,280
Speaker 2: and I would say twenty twenty four with sort of

1134
00:59:29,760 --> 00:59:33,840
Speaker 2: the perception or the sort of liberal border policies of

1135
00:59:33,920 --> 00:59:36,800
Speaker 2: the Biden administration. So I think like it's very people

1136
00:59:36,920 --> 00:59:39,280
Speaker 2: like to say, Oh, it's like there's this middle class

1137
00:59:39,320 --> 00:59:41,080
Speaker 2: that they look at the elite. No, A big part

1138
00:59:41,160 --> 00:59:45,440
Speaker 2: of Trump's success specifically clearly has to do with immigration,

1139
00:59:45,560 --> 00:59:48,760
Speaker 2: which is a different story and receive cultural change rather

1140
00:59:48,880 --> 00:59:52,400
Speaker 2: than inequities of capitalism or whatever.

1141
00:59:53,240 --> 00:59:54,360
Speaker 5: All right, shall we leave it there?

1142
00:59:54,440 --> 00:59:55,280
Speaker 3: Sure, let's leave it there.

1143
00:59:55,440 --> 00:59:57,920
Speaker 5: This has been another episode of the All Thoughts podcast.

1144
00:59:58,040 --> 01:00:00,920
Speaker 5: I'm Tracy Alloway. You can follow me at Tracy Alloway.

1145
01:00:01,120 --> 01:00:03,840
Speaker 2: And I'm Joe Wisenthal. You can follow me at the Stalwart.

1146
01:00:04,120 --> 01:00:07,240
Speaker 2: Follow our producers Carmen Rodriguez at Carmen armand dash Ol

1147
01:00:07,240 --> 01:00:11,120
Speaker 2: Bennett at Dashbot, Kelbrooks at Kelbrooks, and Kevin Lozano at

1148
01:00:11,240 --> 01:00:14,040
Speaker 2: Kevin Lloyd Lozano. And for more Oddlots content, go to

1149
01:00:14,040 --> 01:00:16,960
Speaker 2: Bloomberg dot com slash odd Lots or the daily newsletter

1150
01:00:17,000 --> 01:00:19,160
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1151
01:00:19,200 --> 01:00:21,080
Speaker 2: all of these topics twenty four to seven in our

1152
01:00:21,200 --> 01:00:24,320
Speaker 2: discord discord dot gg slash odd Lots.

1153
01:00:24,600 --> 01:00:27,040
Speaker 5: And if you enjoy odd Lots, if you like when

1154
01:00:27,080 --> 01:00:29,560
Speaker 5: we talk about the global elites, then please leave us

1155
01:00:29,640 --> 01:00:32,960
Speaker 5: a positive review on your favorite podcast platform. And remember,

1156
01:00:33,000 --> 01:00:35,320
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1157
01:00:35,480 --> 01:00:38,520
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1158
01:00:38,600 --> 01:00:41,240
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1159
01:00:41,320 --> 01:00:43,880
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