1 00:00:10,600 --> 00:00:14,240 Speaker 1: Hello, and welcome to another episode of the All Thoughts podcast. 2 00:00:14,400 --> 00:00:19,280 Speaker 1: I'm Tracy Allaway and I'm Joe. Wisn't thal Joe? How 3 00:00:19,320 --> 00:00:22,400 Speaker 1: many E s G press releases do you get in 4 00:00:22,400 --> 00:00:26,040 Speaker 1: a day? What would you say? All? All half of 5 00:00:26,079 --> 00:00:29,600 Speaker 1: my inbox? I don't like making fun of PR people 6 00:00:29,640 --> 00:00:32,120 Speaker 1: too much because it's sort of cheap. You know, journalists 7 00:00:32,120 --> 00:00:35,680 Speaker 1: always wind about PR people. But half of my inboxes 8 00:00:35,840 --> 00:00:39,239 Speaker 1: cryptocurrencies experts who want to tell me about cryptocurrencies, and 9 00:00:39,240 --> 00:00:41,320 Speaker 1: the other is people who want to tell me about 10 00:00:41,400 --> 00:00:44,560 Speaker 1: some sort of thing with sustainable investing a k A 11 00:00:44,760 --> 00:00:47,440 Speaker 1: E s G. Yeah. I kind of love how it's 12 00:00:47,479 --> 00:00:51,080 Speaker 1: two extremes of the Barbell right. It's cryptocurrencies taking up 13 00:00:51,120 --> 00:00:53,239 Speaker 1: a bunch of electricity and then at the other end, 14 00:00:53,440 --> 00:00:58,720 Speaker 1: sustainable finance. But I wouldn't necessarily blame the PR people 15 00:00:58,920 --> 00:01:03,240 Speaker 1: because there is this huge industry that has cropped up 16 00:01:03,280 --> 00:01:07,160 Speaker 1: and grown around e s G. For those that don't know, 17 00:01:07,280 --> 00:01:11,640 Speaker 1: it stands for Environmental, Social and Corporate governance. And I 18 00:01:11,680 --> 00:01:15,480 Speaker 1: think we've had something like five hundred billion dollars worth 19 00:01:15,720 --> 00:01:19,320 Speaker 1: of money raised by companies and governments for e s 20 00:01:19,400 --> 00:01:24,040 Speaker 1: G projects. We've had more than eight hundred billion flowing 21 00:01:24,160 --> 00:01:28,560 Speaker 1: into e s G funds, and as our inboxes can 22 00:01:28,600 --> 00:01:31,960 Speaker 1: attest to, we've had, you know, hundreds of new e 23 00:01:32,200 --> 00:01:36,240 Speaker 1: s G funds launched recently. There is certainly a lot 24 00:01:36,280 --> 00:01:38,920 Speaker 1: of money in it. And you're right, we can't blame 25 00:01:38,959 --> 00:01:41,120 Speaker 1: the pr people. It's not their fault that there's just 26 00:01:41,160 --> 00:01:46,600 Speaker 1: so much money marketing funds. They're just going where, you know, 27 00:01:46,680 --> 00:01:49,080 Speaker 1: doing what the clients say is really not the people's fault. 28 00:01:49,200 --> 00:01:51,639 Speaker 1: There's a big there is a very big push behind 29 00:01:51,720 --> 00:01:54,520 Speaker 1: all things e s G, both of the private side 30 00:01:54,680 --> 00:01:58,320 Speaker 1: companies wanting to make themselves eligible for E s G investing, 31 00:01:59,000 --> 00:02:01,680 Speaker 1: green bonds, et cetera. Just a huge part of this 32 00:02:01,800 --> 00:02:05,160 Speaker 1: sort of a finance conversation right now. Yeah, but I'm 33 00:02:05,200 --> 00:02:08,240 Speaker 1: kind of glad you brought up the cryptocurrency parallel, because, 34 00:02:08,480 --> 00:02:12,079 Speaker 1: just like the crypto market, e s G is relatively 35 00:02:12,160 --> 00:02:17,560 Speaker 1: new and it's sort of finding its footing, and there's 36 00:02:17,560 --> 00:02:21,120 Speaker 1: been quite a lot of talk about how to align incentives, 37 00:02:21,160 --> 00:02:26,079 Speaker 1: how to get definitions right, what exactly is a green investment, 38 00:02:26,280 --> 00:02:29,520 Speaker 1: and in many ways there's a lot of disagreement, and 39 00:02:29,600 --> 00:02:33,680 Speaker 1: it's still kind of like the wild West totally, and 40 00:02:33,760 --> 00:02:36,120 Speaker 1: you know, there's still like there's a lot of ambiguity. 41 00:02:36,160 --> 00:02:38,040 Speaker 1: It seems like, I mean, part of it is like, well, 42 00:02:38,040 --> 00:02:40,519 Speaker 1: how much you want to invest with your values? How 43 00:02:40,600 --> 00:02:44,359 Speaker 1: much is it that using certain E s G screens 44 00:02:44,400 --> 00:02:47,600 Speaker 1: you can actually do better? Because in theory, the company 45 00:02:47,680 --> 00:02:52,600 Speaker 1: operating with more sustainable practices could or should some according 46 00:02:52,639 --> 00:02:56,200 Speaker 1: to some practitioners, actually deliver better returns. What are the 47 00:02:56,240 --> 00:02:58,799 Speaker 1: trade offs? But I don't think like any of these 48 00:02:58,840 --> 00:03:03,400 Speaker 1: answers are like settled science by any stripe. No. But today, 49 00:03:03,560 --> 00:03:06,720 Speaker 1: in order to offset all the press releases that are 50 00:03:06,760 --> 00:03:09,400 Speaker 1: floating out there, we are going to be focusing on 51 00:03:09,720 --> 00:03:12,280 Speaker 1: I don't want to say the downsides of e s G, 52 00:03:12,680 --> 00:03:16,760 Speaker 1: but maybe areas of potential improvement. Um, that's probably a 53 00:03:16,760 --> 00:03:18,800 Speaker 1: good way of putting it. And we are going to 54 00:03:18,880 --> 00:03:22,520 Speaker 1: be speaking to Danielle good Boor. She's a professor of 55 00:03:22,560 --> 00:03:27,440 Speaker 1: economics and macro finance at UE Bristol and also a 56 00:03:27,520 --> 00:03:31,119 Speaker 1: very vocal critic of E s G on Twitter. Daniella, 57 00:03:31,160 --> 00:03:34,000 Speaker 1: thanks so much for coming on, Thank you for inviting me. 58 00:03:35,320 --> 00:03:39,880 Speaker 1: So I guess my first question is what's the purpose 59 00:03:40,280 --> 00:03:43,360 Speaker 1: of E s G Because it sounds kind of obvious 60 00:03:43,400 --> 00:03:45,840 Speaker 1: like we're going to pour a bunch of money into 61 00:03:46,440 --> 00:03:50,200 Speaker 1: good or green projects that are going to change the world. 62 00:03:50,960 --> 00:03:54,720 Speaker 1: But is it that you're supposed to be investing in 63 00:03:55,160 --> 00:03:58,400 Speaker 1: good companies or is it that you're investing in companies 64 00:03:58,440 --> 00:04:02,640 Speaker 1: and then trying to engage with them to change their behavior. 65 00:04:03,640 --> 00:04:06,440 Speaker 1: So I would say that my interest in E s 66 00:04:06,520 --> 00:04:11,640 Speaker 1: G comes from observing the broader political context in which 67 00:04:12,160 --> 00:04:15,160 Speaker 1: E s G investment as a reason in which this 68 00:04:15,320 --> 00:04:18,840 Speaker 1: wall of the s G funds. To just describe a 69 00:04:18,960 --> 00:04:23,520 Speaker 1: sort of come about. To describe the political context, I 70 00:04:23,760 --> 00:04:26,359 Speaker 1: would like to start with a quote from a private 71 00:04:26,400 --> 00:04:30,960 Speaker 1: equity lobbyist that was discussing the Biden infrastructure plan, and 72 00:04:31,040 --> 00:04:33,400 Speaker 1: he said something along the lines of this is a 73 00:04:33,480 --> 00:04:37,600 Speaker 1: very traditional government in spending on infrastructure plan. It's like 74 00:04:37,640 --> 00:04:40,920 Speaker 1: an old funded through the government approach. And what we 75 00:04:40,920 --> 00:04:44,719 Speaker 1: were expecting was Biden to put private finance in the 76 00:04:45,000 --> 00:04:48,200 Speaker 1: in the driving seat, to partner with private finance through 77 00:04:48,640 --> 00:04:51,719 Speaker 1: public private partnerships, and to tap into the huge pools 78 00:04:51,760 --> 00:04:56,080 Speaker 1: of capital, particularly s G capital, standing by and looking 79 00:04:56,279 --> 00:05:01,240 Speaker 1: for sort of sustainable investments and sustainable projects. And the 80 00:05:01,279 --> 00:05:04,480 Speaker 1: way in which this complaint was framed that Biden shows 81 00:05:04,560 --> 00:05:07,839 Speaker 1: old style government investment instead of a partnership with private 82 00:05:07,960 --> 00:05:11,400 Speaker 1: finance signals to me the importance of thinking about the 83 00:05:11,480 --> 00:05:13,600 Speaker 1: rise of E S G and what is the purpose 84 00:05:13,920 --> 00:05:17,640 Speaker 1: how should we think about its limitations through the lengths 85 00:05:17,720 --> 00:05:20,520 Speaker 1: of what I call macro finance regimes, that is, the 86 00:05:20,560 --> 00:05:25,679 Speaker 1: configuration of policies and institutions used by governments, central banks 87 00:05:25,839 --> 00:05:29,680 Speaker 1: and private finance to design the low carbon transition, that is, 88 00:05:29,680 --> 00:05:34,039 Speaker 1: a transition towards a low carbon economy. And I would 89 00:05:34,200 --> 00:05:37,400 Speaker 1: guess since two thousand and fifteen, the year of the 90 00:05:37,400 --> 00:05:40,279 Speaker 1: Paris Agreement, and also the year of the Addis Ababa 91 00:05:40,360 --> 00:05:44,000 Speaker 1: Financing for Development Conference, we have seen what I would 92 00:05:44,040 --> 00:05:48,480 Speaker 1: describe as two broadly distinctive macro financial regimes that promise 93 00:05:48,600 --> 00:05:52,920 Speaker 1: to generate investments in the order of about USD five 94 00:05:52,960 --> 00:05:56,480 Speaker 1: to seven trillion annually that are necessary for the low 95 00:05:56,560 --> 00:06:00,360 Speaker 1: carbon future. And there is a big finance regime team 96 00:06:00,400 --> 00:06:04,920 Speaker 1: and a big green state regime that we often discussed 97 00:06:05,040 --> 00:06:08,360 Speaker 1: as a green New Deal kind of arrangement. So when 98 00:06:08,680 --> 00:06:12,880 Speaker 1: private equity companies and asset managers were complaining that Biden 99 00:06:12,920 --> 00:06:16,279 Speaker 1: had abandoned about the Biden Plan, they were complaining to 100 00:06:16,320 --> 00:06:19,480 Speaker 1: me that they had abandoned this big finance regime that 101 00:06:19,560 --> 00:06:22,520 Speaker 1: was dominant until then in global policy forums like the 102 00:06:22,560 --> 00:06:26,880 Speaker 1: G twenty, the United Nations, in multilateral development banks, the 103 00:06:26,960 --> 00:06:32,760 Speaker 1: Conference on Climate Change, the Global Investor for Sustainable Development Alliance, 104 00:06:33,640 --> 00:06:37,400 Speaker 1: which was a consensus that private finance needs to needs 105 00:06:37,400 --> 00:06:39,960 Speaker 1: to be in the driving seat for us to achieve 106 00:06:40,000 --> 00:06:44,680 Speaker 1: the SDG and the organization commitments by by twenty thirty. 107 00:06:44,880 --> 00:06:46,560 Speaker 1: So this is I want to stop at this point 108 00:06:46,600 --> 00:06:48,839 Speaker 1: because I just want to really make sure we stress it. 109 00:06:48,880 --> 00:06:51,240 Speaker 1: And this is super interesting. And so what you're describing 110 00:06:51,320 --> 00:06:55,400 Speaker 1: is that for years there's been this consensus among leaders 111 00:06:55,440 --> 00:06:57,880 Speaker 1: that when they set out, say like climate goals or 112 00:06:57,920 --> 00:07:02,600 Speaker 1: other environmental goals, that there's a big role for the 113 00:07:02,640 --> 00:07:07,240 Speaker 1: finance industry for private money to be employed directed in 114 00:07:07,360 --> 00:07:10,880 Speaker 1: such a way that it goes towards investments in all 115 00:07:10,960 --> 00:07:14,040 Speaker 1: these areas, whether it's in technology or something like that. 116 00:07:14,760 --> 00:07:18,200 Speaker 1: And perhaps some of the anxiety now as we think 117 00:07:18,240 --> 00:07:22,320 Speaker 1: about when I guess you could say maybe green New 118 00:07:22,360 --> 00:07:24,880 Speaker 1: Deal thinking, although there is no green New deal, but 119 00:07:24,960 --> 00:07:28,520 Speaker 1: green New Deal thinking is much more about let's just 120 00:07:28,680 --> 00:07:33,680 Speaker 1: have the public fisk, let's just have public spending invest 121 00:07:33,720 --> 00:07:35,280 Speaker 1: in this. And it's sort of like I guess you 122 00:07:35,280 --> 00:07:37,920 Speaker 1: could say it sort of cuts out the opportunities in 123 00:07:38,040 --> 00:07:42,280 Speaker 1: some ways for private financial profit exactly. I mean, it 124 00:07:42,520 --> 00:07:45,160 Speaker 1: doesn't necessarily cut them out, because you could say, well, 125 00:07:45,360 --> 00:07:48,280 Speaker 1: you know, private finance was still by the government, the 126 00:07:48,360 --> 00:07:52,160 Speaker 1: bonds issued by governments to finance the green carbon transition. 127 00:07:52,400 --> 00:07:55,840 Speaker 1: It definitely sort of sort of goes against this idea 128 00:07:55,920 --> 00:07:58,239 Speaker 1: that private finance needs to be in the driving seat, 129 00:07:58,400 --> 00:08:00,680 Speaker 1: an idea that that comes with the E s G 130 00:08:00,880 --> 00:08:04,559 Speaker 1: push over the last five to seven years. So what's 131 00:08:04,560 --> 00:08:07,760 Speaker 1: the implication of that. Are you suggesting that as more 132 00:08:07,840 --> 00:08:12,360 Speaker 1: of these projects are undertaken by governments, does that mean 133 00:08:12,720 --> 00:08:16,040 Speaker 1: that the E s G pool is going to start 134 00:08:16,080 --> 00:08:19,280 Speaker 1: shrinking or there's going to be fewer opportunities or is 135 00:08:19,320 --> 00:08:22,679 Speaker 1: it still just going to keep growing as we described 136 00:08:22,720 --> 00:08:26,160 Speaker 1: in the intro. That's that's a very interesting question in 137 00:08:26,200 --> 00:08:29,360 Speaker 1: the sense that it very much depends which avenue governments 138 00:08:29,360 --> 00:08:32,240 Speaker 1: will decide to take, whether they go for big, big 139 00:08:32,280 --> 00:08:35,960 Speaker 1: public investment, which I I somehow doubt. I think the 140 00:08:36,040 --> 00:08:39,520 Speaker 1: by the Infrastructure plan is is somehow an oddity in 141 00:08:39,840 --> 00:08:43,240 Speaker 1: sort of uh in high income countries, I would guess, 142 00:08:43,360 --> 00:08:46,840 Speaker 1: especially after the COVID nineteen crisis there is because we 143 00:08:46,880 --> 00:08:50,040 Speaker 1: still rely very much on this powerful macro fiction of 144 00:08:50,080 --> 00:08:53,040 Speaker 1: the last fourth years that governments have limited fiscal space 145 00:08:53,440 --> 00:08:55,960 Speaker 1: and that it should not rely on independence cent central 146 00:08:56,000 --> 00:08:59,440 Speaker 1: banks to maintain borrowing costs. Law. Then the idea, the 147 00:08:59,520 --> 00:09:03,559 Speaker 1: question comes, if governments cannot produce the trillions in green investment, 148 00:09:03,960 --> 00:09:06,000 Speaker 1: these have to come from somewhere else, and that will 149 00:09:06,080 --> 00:09:08,880 Speaker 1: be private finance. And that's where you get the sort 150 00:09:08,920 --> 00:09:12,120 Speaker 1: of back of the envelope calculations that you were described earlier, 151 00:09:12,559 --> 00:09:15,320 Speaker 1: and they run something like this. You have thirty three 152 00:09:15,720 --> 00:09:20,240 Speaker 1: and eighty trillions U S dollars in financial assets worldwide. 153 00:09:20,679 --> 00:09:25,320 Speaker 1: Around the hundred trillion belong to institutional investors and asset managers, 154 00:09:25,360 --> 00:09:28,400 Speaker 1: and probably thirty trillion more or less have already a 155 00:09:28,440 --> 00:09:32,199 Speaker 1: sustainability level label attached to them. So five to seven 156 00:09:32,240 --> 00:09:36,160 Speaker 1: trillions annually. It's not at large, but what it requires, 157 00:09:36,200 --> 00:09:38,360 Speaker 1: and I think this is very important to bear in mind. 158 00:09:38,840 --> 00:09:41,679 Speaker 1: What it requires is for private private public finance to 159 00:09:41,840 --> 00:09:45,440 Speaker 1: crowding private finance. In other words, for the state to 160 00:09:45,559 --> 00:09:50,480 Speaker 1: help private finance invest in infrastructure projects. And this is 161 00:09:50,600 --> 00:09:54,040 Speaker 1: I think an important political project that goes hand in 162 00:09:54,080 --> 00:09:56,000 Speaker 1: hand with the rise of V s G S because 163 00:09:56,640 --> 00:10:00,760 Speaker 1: it says that when the state has to de risk investments, 164 00:10:01,240 --> 00:10:05,760 Speaker 1: particularly infrastructure investments for private finance, and that goes into 165 00:10:05,800 --> 00:10:09,440 Speaker 1: steps one is to allow private finance to identify sustainable 166 00:10:09,440 --> 00:10:12,679 Speaker 1: asset classes via E s G metrics and then to 167 00:10:12,800 --> 00:10:15,920 Speaker 1: de risk private flows into the E s G sort 168 00:10:15,960 --> 00:10:19,080 Speaker 1: of sustainable assets. Right, and to give you the example 169 00:10:19,160 --> 00:10:22,240 Speaker 1: of the G twenty infrastructure as an asset class, which 170 00:10:22,360 --> 00:10:27,160 Speaker 1: the Biden administration is already supporting through its International Climate 171 00:10:27,240 --> 00:10:30,480 Speaker 1: Finance Plan, the idea and the G twent infrastructure as 172 00:10:30,480 --> 00:10:32,880 Speaker 1: an asset class is that the private sector does not 173 00:10:33,040 --> 00:10:36,280 Speaker 1: build ports or high speed trains, or renewable energy plans 174 00:10:36,360 --> 00:10:40,439 Speaker 1: or hospitals because there are very important risks to projects 175 00:10:40,440 --> 00:10:43,600 Speaker 1: cash flows. There might be sufficient demand, there might be 176 00:10:43,640 --> 00:10:47,760 Speaker 1: currency depreciation, climate risks, fossil fuere subsidies for the poor. 177 00:10:48,200 --> 00:10:50,280 Speaker 1: To what the state needs to do is to step 178 00:10:50,360 --> 00:10:53,960 Speaker 1: in and to de risk the public private partnerships or 179 00:10:53,960 --> 00:10:57,320 Speaker 1: these partnerships between the state and private finance. By assuming 180 00:10:57,480 --> 00:11:00,959 Speaker 1: risk the demand falls or the few your governments might 181 00:11:01,040 --> 00:11:05,559 Speaker 1: increase policies like minimal minimum wages or new climate regulations 182 00:11:05,559 --> 00:11:08,800 Speaker 1: such as an increase in carbon price, and I think 183 00:11:08,880 --> 00:11:12,040 Speaker 1: this to me, this turn towards the state as an 184 00:11:12,040 --> 00:11:15,840 Speaker 1: instrument of the risking for private finance explains to a 185 00:11:15,880 --> 00:11:19,040 Speaker 1: significant extent that dramatic growth that we have seen in 186 00:11:19,280 --> 00:11:22,719 Speaker 1: sustainable finance products in the last years. It's a it's 187 00:11:22,960 --> 00:11:26,160 Speaker 1: a global political appetite for a market driven approach to 188 00:11:26,200 --> 00:11:46,040 Speaker 1: development and to climate. This is this is super fascinating already. 189 00:11:46,080 --> 00:11:47,920 Speaker 1: I mean, I'm thinking, you know, like one of the 190 00:11:47,920 --> 00:11:52,280 Speaker 1: themes that we talked about on this podcast a lot 191 00:11:52,640 --> 00:11:55,040 Speaker 1: is like, are we sort of like entering a I 192 00:11:55,080 --> 00:11:59,280 Speaker 1: guess post neoliberal period and thinking about the economy. And 193 00:11:59,320 --> 00:12:02,720 Speaker 1: we've talked about it a lot with monetary and fiscal 194 00:12:02,760 --> 00:12:05,520 Speaker 1: policy and this idea of handing off control of the 195 00:12:05,559 --> 00:12:09,120 Speaker 1: economy from the technocrats at the central banks to the politicians, 196 00:12:09,720 --> 00:12:12,960 Speaker 1: uh and the government, but we haven't really explored it 197 00:12:13,080 --> 00:12:16,120 Speaker 1: from like the climate angle. But it really is the 198 00:12:16,160 --> 00:12:19,400 Speaker 1: same conversation. It really dovetails with this very nicely, this 199 00:12:19,520 --> 00:12:24,559 Speaker 1: idea that yes, there were these climate priorities that many 200 00:12:25,360 --> 00:12:28,600 Speaker 1: governments and large companies had set out, but it was 201 00:12:28,760 --> 00:12:32,840 Speaker 1: very much done within this framework of yes, but it's 202 00:12:33,160 --> 00:12:35,600 Speaker 1: we're gonna it's we're gonna turn it into a market opportunity. 203 00:12:35,640 --> 00:12:38,320 Speaker 1: And so this choice, as you as you put it, 204 00:12:38,760 --> 00:12:42,439 Speaker 1: this choice to de risk the projects of sustainable finance 205 00:12:42,480 --> 00:12:45,400 Speaker 1: for the private sector is what is this sort of 206 00:12:45,480 --> 00:12:48,400 Speaker 1: like seed or the kernel for what is this omnipresent 207 00:12:48,480 --> 00:12:53,400 Speaker 1: boom in I guess s G investment vehicles? Yes, I 208 00:12:53,480 --> 00:12:56,600 Speaker 1: would very much agree in the sense that I think 209 00:12:56,640 --> 00:12:59,520 Speaker 1: if you, if you trace the importance of h G 210 00:12:59,640 --> 00:13:02,480 Speaker 1: in general is that it is a private taxonomy for 211 00:13:02,559 --> 00:13:06,520 Speaker 1: identifying green or sustainable assets and in a sense distinguishing 212 00:13:06,600 --> 00:13:09,959 Speaker 1: them from from dirty assets. Right. There are a couple 213 00:13:10,000 --> 00:13:12,440 Speaker 1: of issues to consider there. I think one is that, 214 00:13:12,640 --> 00:13:15,960 Speaker 1: although we tend to applaud in some ways, the fact 215 00:13:16,000 --> 00:13:18,960 Speaker 1: that technocratic central banks or at least working closer with 216 00:13:19,480 --> 00:13:22,840 Speaker 1: governments in order to design, say the green transition or 217 00:13:22,880 --> 00:13:26,640 Speaker 1: to to respond to the COVID nitey in pandemic. To me, 218 00:13:26,760 --> 00:13:30,640 Speaker 1: the question is when government technocrats to sort of take over. 219 00:13:30,760 --> 00:13:34,680 Speaker 1: Do they take over to design public investment in green 220 00:13:34,720 --> 00:13:37,959 Speaker 1: infrastructure and green industries, or do they take over to 221 00:13:38,640 --> 00:13:44,440 Speaker 1: design and to negotiate the risking in public private partnership contracts. 222 00:13:44,480 --> 00:13:47,640 Speaker 1: And there are very different physical implications for both, and 223 00:13:47,679 --> 00:13:49,680 Speaker 1: In this one of the papers that I've written on 224 00:13:49,720 --> 00:13:52,280 Speaker 1: what I call this Worlds three consensus, I look at 225 00:13:52,280 --> 00:13:55,040 Speaker 1: the hidden physical costs of the riskings and they can 226 00:13:55,120 --> 00:13:58,079 Speaker 1: be quite significant. We have examples in the European Union, 227 00:13:58,400 --> 00:14:01,080 Speaker 1: we have examples in because trees in the Global South, 228 00:14:01,200 --> 00:14:05,440 Speaker 1: like like Nigeria Orghana, where we can see that it 229 00:14:05,520 --> 00:14:09,800 Speaker 1: doesn't sort of relying on the private sector to drive 230 00:14:09,920 --> 00:14:13,120 Speaker 1: the sustainable agenda doesn't mean that the state is not 231 00:14:13,240 --> 00:14:15,600 Speaker 1: putting fiscal resources on the line. It is in a 232 00:14:15,640 --> 00:14:18,120 Speaker 1: sense and the risk to me there is that it's 233 00:14:18,120 --> 00:14:22,360 Speaker 1: sort of privatizes profits and its socializes laws. Daniel, can 234 00:14:22,400 --> 00:14:24,840 Speaker 1: you explain that a little bit more? How does the 235 00:14:24,880 --> 00:14:30,120 Speaker 1: government de risking the space actually results in fiscal expenditure. 236 00:14:30,440 --> 00:14:33,600 Speaker 1: So let me give you, for example, the example of 237 00:14:34,000 --> 00:14:39,720 Speaker 1: ghanas some COFA offshore gas project where the state signed 238 00:14:39,720 --> 00:14:44,080 Speaker 1: a public private partnership contract with a couple of French companies. 239 00:14:44,440 --> 00:14:48,160 Speaker 1: And in that in PPP contract there is a very 240 00:14:48,160 --> 00:14:53,000 Speaker 1: clear specification of who assumes what risks and the state assumes. 241 00:14:53,040 --> 00:14:55,800 Speaker 1: For example, in this contract Demander skin that says that 242 00:14:55,840 --> 00:14:59,200 Speaker 1: it car is a level of cash flows for the 243 00:14:59,240 --> 00:15:03,120 Speaker 1: private investor Stern for the private operator in the case 244 00:15:03,200 --> 00:15:06,560 Speaker 1: of this Ghanian project, because the state agreed to do 245 00:15:06,720 --> 00:15:12,120 Speaker 1: risk and demand or in other words, to provide a guarantee, 246 00:15:12,560 --> 00:15:15,640 Speaker 1: then according to the i m F, it now pays 247 00:15:15,680 --> 00:15:19,880 Speaker 1: about five hundred million annually for power power generation capacity 248 00:15:19,920 --> 00:15:23,800 Speaker 1: that it cannot use because the infrastructure the greed is 249 00:15:23,840 --> 00:15:27,600 Speaker 1: not performed enough to sort of absorb this. And there 250 00:15:27,600 --> 00:15:32,400 Speaker 1: are many other examples in PPP contracts everywhere, because the 251 00:15:32,760 --> 00:15:36,120 Speaker 1: logic is, if you want to direct or to escort 252 00:15:36,200 --> 00:15:39,520 Speaker 1: private finance into sustainable assets, you need to change the 253 00:15:39,640 --> 00:15:43,080 Speaker 1: risk reworld profile right to align it better with their 254 00:15:43,360 --> 00:15:47,760 Speaker 1: preferred the risk reward profile. Then the state says, okay, 255 00:15:47,800 --> 00:15:50,800 Speaker 1: I will guarantee a certain level of demand I will pay, 256 00:15:51,320 --> 00:15:55,240 Speaker 1: or if a future government decides to, for example, increased 257 00:15:55,280 --> 00:15:58,600 Speaker 1: minimum wages, or if it decides to put a carbon price, 258 00:15:59,000 --> 00:16:02,480 Speaker 1: the state absorb some of the risks of the private 259 00:16:02,520 --> 00:16:08,800 Speaker 1: investment in order to guarantee a constant stream of cash flow. Well, 260 00:16:08,800 --> 00:16:12,880 Speaker 1: why is this not just a problem of making these 261 00:16:12,920 --> 00:16:17,800 Speaker 1: guarantees better, demanding more demanding, you know, setting the standards 262 00:16:17,840 --> 00:16:20,880 Speaker 1: for what the projects need to accomplish. I mean, it 263 00:16:20,960 --> 00:16:24,760 Speaker 1: seems like it's it's easy to imagine bad projects where 264 00:16:24,800 --> 00:16:28,000 Speaker 1: the state comes in and create some buffer de risks 265 00:16:28,160 --> 00:16:30,800 Speaker 1: for the private sector, and then the private sector doesn't deliver. 266 00:16:31,400 --> 00:16:34,760 Speaker 1: Why not just get better at making sure the private 267 00:16:34,800 --> 00:16:38,040 Speaker 1: sector delivers better if it's going to be eligible for 268 00:16:38,120 --> 00:16:41,080 Speaker 1: these sort of guarantee the backstops of the state. I 269 00:16:41,120 --> 00:16:44,560 Speaker 1: think that's a that's a very legitimate question, and historically 270 00:16:44,640 --> 00:16:48,800 Speaker 1: the critic towards these the risking PPPs has come from 271 00:16:48,800 --> 00:16:51,720 Speaker 1: from the empirical reality in the European Union and in 272 00:16:52,000 --> 00:16:55,040 Speaker 1: countries around the world that have been used p pps 273 00:16:55,040 --> 00:16:58,160 Speaker 1: for infrastructure investorment. Remind us what p P stand for, 274 00:16:58,160 --> 00:17:01,560 Speaker 1: a public private partnership, right, it is the kind of 275 00:17:01,840 --> 00:17:04,920 Speaker 1: it is the kind of arrangement that black Rock, for example, 276 00:17:05,200 --> 00:17:08,280 Speaker 1: uh called for the Biden administration to use in order 277 00:17:08,320 --> 00:17:12,040 Speaker 1: to involve the private sector in infrastructure investment. And the 278 00:17:12,080 --> 00:17:14,720 Speaker 1: experience with p pps in Europe and elsewhere is in 279 00:17:14,760 --> 00:17:18,480 Speaker 1: general an experience of a lot of very high costs 280 00:17:18,560 --> 00:17:20,840 Speaker 1: for the state that would have in other words, that 281 00:17:20,840 --> 00:17:22,800 Speaker 1: it would have been cheap or if the state did 282 00:17:22,840 --> 00:17:27,399 Speaker 1: it by basically spending directly, as the Biden administration plans 283 00:17:27,440 --> 00:17:31,200 Speaker 1: to do with its infrastructure plan. So that's one issue 284 00:17:31,640 --> 00:17:35,440 Speaker 1: us it has been very costly for for the public purse, 285 00:17:35,920 --> 00:17:40,880 Speaker 1: and I guess the second issue is, as you describe it, Joe, well, 286 00:17:40,920 --> 00:17:44,240 Speaker 1: maybe we can find a better way of governing these 287 00:17:44,240 --> 00:17:47,200 Speaker 1: projects to make sure that the distributions of risk works better, 288 00:17:47,200 --> 00:17:49,720 Speaker 1: and the World Bank has done a lot of sort 289 00:17:49,760 --> 00:17:54,159 Speaker 1: of efforts into that direction, but to my mind, we 290 00:17:54,200 --> 00:17:59,520 Speaker 1: haven't had yet a successful or many successful examples where, 291 00:18:00,000 --> 00:18:03,160 Speaker 1: particularly in the Global South, but also in Europe where 292 00:18:03,240 --> 00:18:06,680 Speaker 1: these distribution of risks work works better for the public person. 293 00:18:06,760 --> 00:18:10,119 Speaker 1: That's one thing. And the second one, which for the 294 00:18:10,119 --> 00:18:13,919 Speaker 1: europe euro European audience perhaps it resonates better, is that 295 00:18:14,040 --> 00:18:19,080 Speaker 1: once you organize public services through p pps, then basically 296 00:18:19,200 --> 00:18:22,200 Speaker 1: you're saying that the users have to pay a fee 297 00:18:22,200 --> 00:18:24,800 Speaker 1: in order to access them. And that is the case 298 00:18:24,880 --> 00:18:27,760 Speaker 1: for highways, that is the case for trains where it's 299 00:18:27,760 --> 00:18:31,000 Speaker 1: but it's also the case for health services, for education, 300 00:18:31,520 --> 00:18:33,600 Speaker 1: for nature as an asset class. The idea is to 301 00:18:33,680 --> 00:18:36,439 Speaker 1: use these PPPs everywhere. So in a sense there is 302 00:18:36,440 --> 00:18:39,639 Speaker 1: also a question of the public good here, whether the 303 00:18:39,720 --> 00:18:43,320 Speaker 1: government governments around the world are not equipped to provide 304 00:18:43,400 --> 00:18:45,760 Speaker 1: or to meet at a social contract with its citizens 305 00:18:46,520 --> 00:18:51,000 Speaker 1: by providing good quality public services through public investment as 306 00:18:51,000 --> 00:18:54,880 Speaker 1: opposed to imposing user fees and UH and the risking 307 00:18:55,119 --> 00:18:59,560 Speaker 1: typically investments there the more important sort of the bigger 308 00:18:59,560 --> 00:19:02,840 Speaker 1: issue and brings ads back to the way the topic 309 00:19:02,880 --> 00:19:04,800 Speaker 1: of the S G S. I think there is also 310 00:19:04,800 --> 00:19:08,560 Speaker 1: a question of systemic greenwashing that that the rises with 311 00:19:08,680 --> 00:19:12,320 Speaker 1: this kind of the risking parodigm. I wanted to I 312 00:19:12,359 --> 00:19:15,080 Speaker 1: wanted to pick up on exactly this point because you 313 00:19:15,160 --> 00:19:19,320 Speaker 1: mentioned this idea of the technocrats stepping in and de 314 00:19:19,520 --> 00:19:22,280 Speaker 1: risking E. S G. And Joe described how one of 315 00:19:22,280 --> 00:19:25,479 Speaker 1: our big themes for the year is this idea of 316 00:19:25,520 --> 00:19:28,800 Speaker 1: a bigger role for the government um in terms of 317 00:19:28,800 --> 00:19:32,480 Speaker 1: fiscal stimulus and everything else. But another theme, or a 318 00:19:32,520 --> 00:19:34,920 Speaker 1: sub theme of that, I should say, is that the 319 00:19:34,960 --> 00:19:37,679 Speaker 1: devil is in the details, right, And even if you 320 00:19:37,760 --> 00:19:41,959 Speaker 1: agree that the government should actually do more designing, that 321 00:19:42,080 --> 00:19:45,919 Speaker 1: policy can be fraught with loads of disagreements, and it 322 00:19:46,040 --> 00:19:49,160 Speaker 1: can be very difficult and maybe even not as efficient 323 00:19:49,320 --> 00:19:52,359 Speaker 1: or productive as it should have been. So how is 324 00:19:52,400 --> 00:19:55,959 Speaker 1: that playing out in the E S G space? So 325 00:19:56,119 --> 00:19:59,000 Speaker 1: I would say, in the space it plays out, and 326 00:19:59,040 --> 00:20:02,360 Speaker 1: I think that they in the technocratic detail is very important. 327 00:20:02,400 --> 00:20:07,320 Speaker 1: It's it's crucial is who decides or according to what 328 00:20:07,560 --> 00:20:09,919 Speaker 1: rules or taxonomy is we call them taxonomy is in 329 00:20:09,920 --> 00:20:12,800 Speaker 1: this space, according to what taxonomy is do we decide 330 00:20:12,920 --> 00:20:18,159 Speaker 1: whether investments and products or green or or dirty. And 331 00:20:18,320 --> 00:20:22,320 Speaker 1: there is a broad agreement in regulatory circles that industry 332 00:20:22,440 --> 00:20:27,080 Speaker 1: led s G approaches open the door too systemic green waship. 333 00:20:27,440 --> 00:20:30,159 Speaker 1: That is, in a sense, maybe if I give you 334 00:20:30,160 --> 00:20:32,960 Speaker 1: the example of Total, the French oil and gas company, 335 00:20:33,119 --> 00:20:36,800 Speaker 1: because I think it's a powerful example. If you take 336 00:20:36,880 --> 00:20:39,560 Speaker 1: sustain Analytics, which is one of the s G which 337 00:20:39,600 --> 00:20:44,119 Speaker 1: is one provider of e s G ratings, Analytics rates 338 00:20:44,119 --> 00:20:48,320 Speaker 1: Total as having e s G risks at a medium level. 339 00:20:49,040 --> 00:20:54,240 Speaker 1: It rates Exton high and Chevron as having severe e 340 00:20:54,400 --> 00:20:57,080 Speaker 1: s G risks. And if you look at Total, well 341 00:20:57,160 --> 00:21:00,520 Speaker 1: you'd say it has a nature based solution unit that 342 00:21:00,560 --> 00:21:04,280 Speaker 1: promises to invest in natural carbon scenes in order to 343 00:21:04,320 --> 00:21:08,640 Speaker 1: sequesters or two from its operations. Right. However, if one 344 00:21:08,720 --> 00:21:11,199 Speaker 1: looks closer at what Hotel has been doing over the 345 00:21:11,240 --> 00:21:16,320 Speaker 1: last few years, then this rate ranking of medium e 346 00:21:16,440 --> 00:21:19,160 Speaker 1: s G risks looks to me a lot like green washing. 347 00:21:19,560 --> 00:21:23,560 Speaker 1: For example, in Congo, Total wants to exploit oil there, 348 00:21:23,800 --> 00:21:26,480 Speaker 1: and it says well, in order to compensate, we will 349 00:21:26,560 --> 00:21:30,520 Speaker 1: create a natural carbon sing of forty thousand hectors. But 350 00:21:30,720 --> 00:21:35,360 Speaker 1: this involves first destroying a local natural savanna ecosystem and 351 00:21:35,440 --> 00:21:40,040 Speaker 1: replacing it with what non native trees I think acacia 352 00:21:40,119 --> 00:21:43,919 Speaker 1: trees that can be commercially exploited. So if you're an 353 00:21:43,920 --> 00:21:47,680 Speaker 1: institutional investor, right then you hold Total shares or bonds, 354 00:21:47,720 --> 00:21:50,119 Speaker 1: you can say, well, this is a company that is 355 00:21:50,160 --> 00:21:54,480 Speaker 1: carefully planning its transitional to fossil fuels because of stain analytics, 356 00:21:54,640 --> 00:21:57,640 Speaker 1: s G ratings tells me so. But what I see 357 00:21:57,800 --> 00:22:02,159 Speaker 1: is that Total probably use is it's green finance ratings 358 00:22:02,200 --> 00:22:05,199 Speaker 1: in order to as a cover to burn more fossil 359 00:22:05,280 --> 00:22:09,560 Speaker 1: viewers while destroying local forests for commercial exploitation. And I 360 00:22:09,600 --> 00:22:11,760 Speaker 1: think that brings me to the idea of this double 361 00:22:11,840 --> 00:22:16,119 Speaker 1: materiality that we that not we, but regulators discuss when 362 00:22:16,160 --> 00:22:20,879 Speaker 1: they talk about taxonomys of green and dirty finance. And 363 00:22:20,960 --> 00:22:25,000 Speaker 1: the idea of double materiality is that the climate crisis 364 00:22:25,080 --> 00:22:28,440 Speaker 1: poses risks for institutional investors, right and in this case, 365 00:22:28,480 --> 00:22:32,359 Speaker 1: Total looks looks looks less risky for the institutional investor 366 00:22:32,480 --> 00:22:36,800 Speaker 1: because of its sustain analytics s G rating. But when 367 00:22:36,800 --> 00:22:41,200 Speaker 1: that investor decides to include totally its portfolio, what it does, 368 00:22:41,240 --> 00:22:43,720 Speaker 1: in fact is it lends to a fossil fuel company 369 00:22:43,800 --> 00:22:47,040 Speaker 1: that is worsen in the climate crisis. So totals actions 370 00:22:47,040 --> 00:22:50,040 Speaker 1: in Congo are making the climate crisis words. And that 371 00:22:50,240 --> 00:22:52,960 Speaker 1: is the the idea of double materiality that has been 372 00:22:52,960 --> 00:22:55,840 Speaker 1: at the core of regulatory debates. And I think I 373 00:22:55,840 --> 00:22:58,280 Speaker 1: don't think it can be solved by relying on private 374 00:22:58,280 --> 00:23:00,640 Speaker 1: metrics like s G. It needs a ablic that son 375 00:23:00,680 --> 00:23:04,760 Speaker 1: on me. It needs the technocrats to say this is 376 00:23:04,880 --> 00:23:09,520 Speaker 1: green or this is sustainable, and this is not. I 377 00:23:09,600 --> 00:23:12,320 Speaker 1: just want to very briefly, this is so weird because 378 00:23:12,359 --> 00:23:14,679 Speaker 1: I have like this very brief story, which is like 379 00:23:15,320 --> 00:23:19,560 Speaker 1: I studied abroad in a spring of two thousand in Geneva, 380 00:23:20,400 --> 00:23:24,320 Speaker 1: and that was like the peak of like neoliberal optimism 381 00:23:24,359 --> 00:23:26,440 Speaker 1: in the world is all gonna be great and and 382 00:23:26,600 --> 00:23:29,639 Speaker 1: geos and stuff. And I actually, uh did a like 383 00:23:29,680 --> 00:23:33,680 Speaker 1: little paper for like my semester on tensions that were 384 00:23:33,680 --> 00:23:37,439 Speaker 1: emerged would emerge between at the time the Kyoto Protocol 385 00:23:37,520 --> 00:23:41,679 Speaker 1: about climate change and the Convention on Biological Diversity and 386 00:23:41,800 --> 00:23:44,080 Speaker 1: exactly what you described, and I never thought I would 387 00:23:44,080 --> 00:23:46,720 Speaker 1: think about that, like little like paper that I wrote 388 00:23:46,720 --> 00:23:49,480 Speaker 1: at the end of my semester of my sophomore year 389 00:23:49,520 --> 00:23:52,680 Speaker 1: in college about that. But I'm glad to see that 390 00:23:52,880 --> 00:23:56,720 Speaker 1: actually twenty one yeah, twenty one years later, that that 391 00:23:56,880 --> 00:23:59,960 Speaker 1: is actually relevant and I kind of understand that tension 392 00:24:00,480 --> 00:24:06,760 Speaker 1: between decarbonization and damaging sort of natural ecosystems. I guess 393 00:24:06,760 --> 00:24:08,639 Speaker 1: that's just a comment, but I'm not thank you for 394 00:24:08,680 --> 00:24:10,919 Speaker 1: bringing that up. I never thought I would think about that. Again, 395 00:24:10,960 --> 00:24:16,000 Speaker 1: Thank you, Joe. Yes, I guess regulatives think think about 396 00:24:16,040 --> 00:24:18,440 Speaker 1: this another sort of more sustained basis, but maybe you 397 00:24:18,440 --> 00:24:21,280 Speaker 1: should send them your age. I'm going to come in 398 00:24:21,400 --> 00:24:26,800 Speaker 1: with a question now, which is which? Actually I'm just 399 00:24:26,840 --> 00:24:29,040 Speaker 1: going to repeat my first question because I think this 400 00:24:29,160 --> 00:24:33,080 Speaker 1: gets to the point Danielle is making about, you know, 401 00:24:33,160 --> 00:24:37,040 Speaker 1: the need for someone to decide what actually is green 402 00:24:37,440 --> 00:24:40,679 Speaker 1: and what isn't. I think it comes down to confusion 403 00:24:40,720 --> 00:24:43,920 Speaker 1: over exactly what E s G is supposed to be. 404 00:24:44,200 --> 00:24:46,920 Speaker 1: So getting back to that first question, is it supposed 405 00:24:46,960 --> 00:24:50,159 Speaker 1: to be that you're investing in good companies or projects 406 00:24:50,359 --> 00:24:53,160 Speaker 1: or is it supposed to be that you're engaging with, 407 00:24:53,400 --> 00:24:57,320 Speaker 1: you know, maybe polluting companies in the hopes that they 408 00:24:57,440 --> 00:25:00,840 Speaker 1: change their behavior. I don't think we've figured out out yet. 409 00:25:01,920 --> 00:25:04,600 Speaker 1: I think it depends who you ask, right, I think 410 00:25:04,640 --> 00:25:09,960 Speaker 1: for for the governments and regulators in general, the idea is, 411 00:25:10,119 --> 00:25:13,640 Speaker 1: and you can think about the European Union Sustainable Finance 412 00:25:13,760 --> 00:25:17,359 Speaker 1: Initiative and the taxonomy that comes with it, the idea 413 00:25:17,520 --> 00:25:20,560 Speaker 1: is that they would like investors to think about the 414 00:25:20,600 --> 00:25:27,040 Speaker 1: ways in which they're lending to companies may have an 415 00:25:27,560 --> 00:25:32,440 Speaker 1: environmental impact, or may have or or may reproduce or 416 00:25:32,480 --> 00:25:37,360 Speaker 1: accommodate corporate practices in uh sort of social and governance 417 00:25:37,400 --> 00:25:42,400 Speaker 1: areas that are not aligned with the public standards. So so, 418 00:25:42,440 --> 00:25:46,480 Speaker 1: to my mind, for regulators, it is important to accelerate 419 00:25:46,760 --> 00:25:50,960 Speaker 1: the shift in financial flows away from carbon activities towards 420 00:25:51,400 --> 00:25:54,359 Speaker 1: green activities. Now, what does that mean in practice? And 421 00:25:54,400 --> 00:25:57,200 Speaker 1: that goes to your second question is should we rely 422 00:25:57,400 --> 00:25:59,720 Speaker 1: on on these investors to sort of try to this 423 00:26:00,000 --> 00:26:03,959 Speaker 1: link corporations. I think that's a more difficult question to answer, 424 00:26:04,040 --> 00:26:08,159 Speaker 1: because it is true that we have seen experiences every 425 00:26:08,160 --> 00:26:09,919 Speaker 1: here and there, and there is a lot of public 426 00:26:09,960 --> 00:26:13,440 Speaker 1: pressure from civil society organizations to make sure that for example, 427 00:26:13,480 --> 00:26:17,920 Speaker 1: black Rock flex is its muscle in order to make 428 00:26:17,960 --> 00:26:22,000 Speaker 1: sure that the companies where it's a shareholder or where 429 00:26:22,000 --> 00:26:26,880 Speaker 1: it holds shares on behalf of its investors improve their practices. 430 00:26:27,320 --> 00:26:30,879 Speaker 1: But to me, the question that raises then is if 431 00:26:30,960 --> 00:26:35,639 Speaker 1: investors have to assess the E s G behavior on 432 00:26:35,720 --> 00:26:38,720 Speaker 1: the basis of private ratings, is it possible to have 433 00:26:39,000 --> 00:26:42,560 Speaker 1: arbitrage in the sense of you can go and choose 434 00:26:42,600 --> 00:26:45,520 Speaker 1: a highest rating from whichever provider gives it to you, 435 00:26:45,600 --> 00:26:48,000 Speaker 1: and there are some perverse incentives in there, and then 436 00:26:48,040 --> 00:26:50,240 Speaker 1: you don't have to do very much right And and 437 00:26:50,359 --> 00:26:53,200 Speaker 1: that somebody who believes that the climate crisis is very real, 438 00:26:53,840 --> 00:26:57,359 Speaker 1: I am concerned about the idea that we we have 439 00:26:57,560 --> 00:27:02,000 Speaker 1: to rely on private financial institutions in order to drive 440 00:27:02,080 --> 00:27:06,520 Speaker 1: our climate agenda and to ensure the corporations go towards 441 00:27:06,960 --> 00:27:12,880 Speaker 1: low carbonativities. Awareness of climate change, discussion of climate change 442 00:27:12,960 --> 00:27:15,920 Speaker 1: these days is at extraordinary levels, has talked about all 443 00:27:16,000 --> 00:27:19,879 Speaker 1: the time, literally every day, pretty much. How much of 444 00:27:20,000 --> 00:27:24,199 Speaker 1: that has been driven by the fact that profit motivated 445 00:27:24,280 --> 00:27:28,520 Speaker 1: companies have had an incentive to put this out in 446 00:27:28,600 --> 00:27:31,840 Speaker 1: the public consciousness. I mean, you mentioned black Rock. You 447 00:27:31,920 --> 00:27:34,960 Speaker 1: know there's numerous companies that see big dollars in this 448 00:27:35,640 --> 00:27:39,920 Speaker 1: had it not been for the huge profit motive, could 449 00:27:39,960 --> 00:27:41,800 Speaker 1: it be possible in your view that in the year 450 00:27:43,200 --> 00:27:45,960 Speaker 1: we wouldn't be talking about climate as much. I think 451 00:27:46,440 --> 00:27:49,399 Speaker 1: we have to recognize that the private financial institutions have 452 00:27:49,640 --> 00:27:52,720 Speaker 1: taken on the sustainability agenda in in a sort of 453 00:27:52,800 --> 00:27:56,040 Speaker 1: comprehensive way, and and it to to some of the 454 00:27:56,560 --> 00:27:59,400 Speaker 1: it has been surprising. But I would I guess sort 455 00:27:59,440 --> 00:28:02,920 Speaker 1: of the big public pressure comes from, you know, young 456 00:28:03,119 --> 00:28:06,200 Speaker 1: citizens everywhere in the world mobilizing in the Fridays for 457 00:28:06,320 --> 00:28:10,600 Speaker 1: future and governments responding to this public pressure to act 458 00:28:10,680 --> 00:28:13,600 Speaker 1: on climate. So I wouldn't say that it is the 459 00:28:13,720 --> 00:28:18,680 Speaker 1: private financial sector that sees profit making opportunities that has 460 00:28:18,760 --> 00:28:22,240 Speaker 1: been driving it, but there certainly are responding to what 461 00:28:22,480 --> 00:28:25,280 Speaker 1: they see as a future where the state might possibly 462 00:28:25,400 --> 00:28:29,600 Speaker 1: become much stronger in flexing its green regulatory muscle. And 463 00:28:29,720 --> 00:28:32,160 Speaker 1: and here where the question of green washing becomes even 464 00:28:32,200 --> 00:28:34,760 Speaker 1: more important, because I can see that in the near 465 00:28:34,880 --> 00:28:38,600 Speaker 1: future governments will will go away from or will move 466 00:28:38,760 --> 00:28:41,160 Speaker 1: beyond what we have now as the status quo, which 467 00:28:41,320 --> 00:28:45,800 Speaker 1: is in the Central Banks Task Force for Financial Disclosure, 468 00:28:45,880 --> 00:28:49,040 Speaker 1: for example, the status quo is we have to ask 469 00:28:49,160 --> 00:28:53,800 Speaker 1: for disclosure of climate risks and for disclosure of exposures. Okay, 470 00:28:53,880 --> 00:28:55,840 Speaker 1: but I guess a year from now, our two years 471 00:28:55,920 --> 00:28:58,120 Speaker 1: from now, if you look, for example, of the European 472 00:28:58,200 --> 00:29:00,520 Speaker 1: Central Bank, who is undertaking a review you of its 473 00:29:01,040 --> 00:29:05,000 Speaker 1: monetary policy operations, you could see a state that says, 474 00:29:05,120 --> 00:29:09,760 Speaker 1: I'm going to increase capital requirements on dirty assets you're holding, 475 00:29:09,960 --> 00:29:14,240 Speaker 1: or I'm going to subsidize green assets by reducing capital 476 00:29:14,320 --> 00:29:19,239 Speaker 1: requirements or reducing haircuts on the collateral that banks are 477 00:29:19,360 --> 00:29:22,440 Speaker 1: using in order to borrow from central banks. So in 478 00:29:22,520 --> 00:29:24,800 Speaker 1: a sense that the rise of edg its is not 479 00:29:24,920 --> 00:29:29,080 Speaker 1: simply about profits, but it's also about a strategic positioning 480 00:29:29,440 --> 00:29:32,600 Speaker 1: to respond to what I think is very possible a 481 00:29:32,720 --> 00:29:37,200 Speaker 1: future where central banks in particular and regulators are taking 482 00:29:37,280 --> 00:29:40,600 Speaker 1: the question of green washing more significantly and the question 483 00:29:40,640 --> 00:29:45,240 Speaker 1: of green carbon bias in their own own operations more seriously. 484 00:29:45,480 --> 00:29:49,240 Speaker 1: Because that's a future where if you are not able 485 00:29:49,320 --> 00:29:52,680 Speaker 1: to provide some sort of green label for the assets 486 00:29:52,720 --> 00:29:55,760 Speaker 1: that you're holding, it might be much more expensive to 487 00:29:55,880 --> 00:29:58,120 Speaker 1: hold them, or you might end up with a lot 488 00:29:58,160 --> 00:30:16,880 Speaker 1: of strended assets. So how do you actually build a 489 00:30:17,000 --> 00:30:22,000 Speaker 1: consensus around green labels and the actual definition, because it 490 00:30:22,080 --> 00:30:24,720 Speaker 1: does feel like we are in this weird moment where 491 00:30:25,680 --> 00:30:29,520 Speaker 1: a lot of governments have recognized that climate change is 492 00:30:29,560 --> 00:30:32,800 Speaker 1: a concern and clearly something needs to be done about it, 493 00:30:33,080 --> 00:30:37,160 Speaker 1: but there does seem to be very very little official 494 00:30:37,280 --> 00:30:41,360 Speaker 1: consensus around what exactly those policies should be and what 495 00:30:41,520 --> 00:30:45,280 Speaker 1: a green investment should actually look like. Yes, that is 496 00:30:45,640 --> 00:30:48,640 Speaker 1: a trillion dollar question in some ways because it points 497 00:30:48,720 --> 00:30:53,600 Speaker 1: to the political difficulties in agreeing on say a global level. 498 00:30:53,680 --> 00:30:55,600 Speaker 1: But even if you look at the European Union and 499 00:30:55,680 --> 00:30:59,000 Speaker 1: the European Union level, the European Union for a while 500 00:30:59,120 --> 00:31:02,520 Speaker 1: sort of itself as a leader in the green finance agenda, 501 00:31:03,000 --> 00:31:06,840 Speaker 1: particularly because the Trump administration wasn't interested in participating, right, 502 00:31:06,920 --> 00:31:09,520 Speaker 1: So they said, okay, we'll come up with a public taxonomy, 503 00:31:09,600 --> 00:31:14,320 Speaker 1: the sustainable finance taxonomy. This will identify activities that are sustainable, 504 00:31:14,640 --> 00:31:16,680 Speaker 1: and then we will use will take this at a 505 00:31:16,720 --> 00:31:20,240 Speaker 1: global level and create some form of coordination that says 506 00:31:20,600 --> 00:31:24,600 Speaker 1: this is a public standard of green, and it's it's 507 00:31:24,640 --> 00:31:26,920 Speaker 1: not supposed to be a public standard of brown. Because 508 00:31:27,000 --> 00:31:29,920 Speaker 1: the European Commission has parked the question or sorry, what 509 00:31:30,120 --> 00:31:32,560 Speaker 1: is what are the activities it sort of doesn't deal 510 00:31:32,640 --> 00:31:34,480 Speaker 1: with it for for now, but at least it says 511 00:31:34,840 --> 00:31:37,400 Speaker 1: this set of activities are green. But if you look 512 00:31:37,440 --> 00:31:42,560 Speaker 1: at the political debate and negotiations around the European taxonomy 513 00:31:42,680 --> 00:31:45,720 Speaker 1: over the last couple of years, your question Tracy becomes 514 00:31:45,960 --> 00:31:49,520 Speaker 1: very relevant because what we have seen is conflict between 515 00:31:49,600 --> 00:31:52,720 Speaker 1: member states of what kind of activities should receive the 516 00:31:52,880 --> 00:31:56,920 Speaker 1: label green and and most recently a civil society organizations 517 00:31:56,960 --> 00:32:00,440 Speaker 1: that were involved walked out because the European Mission, at 518 00:32:00,480 --> 00:32:03,960 Speaker 1: the pressure of several several members states, said that he 519 00:32:04,120 --> 00:32:07,600 Speaker 1: was contemplating including natural gas, which is a fossil fuel, 520 00:32:08,040 --> 00:32:11,000 Speaker 1: as a sustainable activity, and that is sort of stretching 521 00:32:11,080 --> 00:32:17,040 Speaker 1: it by miles in terms of credibility of a public taxonomy, 522 00:32:17,200 --> 00:32:20,800 Speaker 1: and that is an strategic opening, I guess for for 523 00:32:21,040 --> 00:32:24,400 Speaker 1: private E s G ratings, because you know, at least 524 00:32:24,440 --> 00:32:28,680 Speaker 1: private finance can produce some some ratings and some risks. 525 00:32:28,760 --> 00:32:32,760 Speaker 1: And yeah, if you have in house E s G desks, 526 00:32:32,840 --> 00:32:35,880 Speaker 1: and most large institutional investors would have them, you can 527 00:32:35,960 --> 00:32:38,480 Speaker 1: do a lot of due diligence. So in I'm not 528 00:32:38,760 --> 00:32:41,080 Speaker 1: very optimistic that there will be a sort of public, 529 00:32:41,200 --> 00:32:44,840 Speaker 1: global public standard. This is super interesting to me. I mean, 530 00:32:44,920 --> 00:32:50,000 Speaker 1: I keep seeing in this conversation parallels between thinking about 531 00:32:50,160 --> 00:32:53,920 Speaker 1: sustainability and climate and the environment with the discussion of 532 00:32:54,040 --> 00:32:57,280 Speaker 1: say like inflation and labor and the handoff from central 533 00:32:57,360 --> 00:33:00,920 Speaker 1: banks to governments, because you know, I'm thinking about like 534 00:33:01,040 --> 00:33:03,400 Speaker 1: in the one of the critics of sort of like 535 00:33:03,520 --> 00:33:07,080 Speaker 1: post Kanzian economics, and people will say, well, you know, 536 00:33:07,240 --> 00:33:11,000 Speaker 1: like maybe are maybe the traditional models for forecasting inflation 537 00:33:11,600 --> 00:33:14,719 Speaker 1: are really terrible, but at least we have models. At 538 00:33:14,800 --> 00:33:17,200 Speaker 1: least we have models, and uh, you know, that's sort 539 00:33:17,240 --> 00:33:18,760 Speaker 1: of the critic. At least we have something that on 540 00:33:18,840 --> 00:33:22,040 Speaker 1: paper looks very elegant about some trade off between employment 541 00:33:22,160 --> 00:33:24,280 Speaker 1: and inflation. And it kind of feels like there's like 542 00:33:24,400 --> 00:33:29,280 Speaker 1: something similar going on with thinking about a sustainability where 543 00:33:29,920 --> 00:33:34,320 Speaker 1: you can say, okay, well, the private sectors matrices for 544 00:33:34,520 --> 00:33:37,840 Speaker 1: thinking about what's sustainable they don't really work, they're not 545 00:33:38,000 --> 00:33:40,760 Speaker 1: very good, but at least they exist and at least 546 00:33:40,800 --> 00:33:43,120 Speaker 1: there's something on paper that everyone can look at. Whereas 547 00:33:43,160 --> 00:33:44,960 Speaker 1: when we try to like get to something that's like 548 00:33:45,080 --> 00:33:48,960 Speaker 1: seemingly more democratic, we know that the existing models don't exist, 549 00:33:49,040 --> 00:33:52,080 Speaker 1: but sort of governments have a harder time even putting 550 00:33:52,120 --> 00:33:55,360 Speaker 1: something on paper even if what the private sector makes 551 00:33:55,680 --> 00:33:59,240 Speaker 1: doesn't work. Does that make sense that that parallel, I 552 00:33:59,280 --> 00:34:01,120 Speaker 1: mean it does to me in the sense that this 553 00:34:01,360 --> 00:34:03,800 Speaker 1: is in the in the case that you described around inflation, 554 00:34:03,920 --> 00:34:06,720 Speaker 1: we are seeing sort of old orthodox is dying so 555 00:34:07,000 --> 00:34:10,360 Speaker 1: kind of slow for our taste, whereas in in the 556 00:34:10,880 --> 00:34:15,200 Speaker 1: sustainable finance space there is a new orthodox emerging. But 557 00:34:15,320 --> 00:34:21,880 Speaker 1: the political momentum, or the ability of elected politicians to 558 00:34:23,320 --> 00:34:28,960 Speaker 1: provide public solutions is not has not sort of materialized yet, 559 00:34:29,040 --> 00:34:31,359 Speaker 1: so to me in a sense the question of will 560 00:34:31,440 --> 00:34:33,279 Speaker 1: we have a lot of a lot more E s 561 00:34:33,320 --> 00:34:36,359 Speaker 1: G over the next years, Yes, definitely a lot more 562 00:34:36,760 --> 00:34:39,920 Speaker 1: there will be, I guess better, at least for the 563 00:34:39,960 --> 00:34:44,480 Speaker 1: European Union. The European Union now has a directive for disclosure, 564 00:34:45,080 --> 00:34:48,640 Speaker 1: where if you want to sell the financial products as 565 00:34:49,560 --> 00:34:53,800 Speaker 1: environmental or social, you need to provide a narrative of 566 00:34:53,880 --> 00:34:57,080 Speaker 1: what they call principal adverse impacts or pies. I think 567 00:34:57,120 --> 00:34:59,560 Speaker 1: it's quite funny that that they are described like that, 568 00:34:59,760 --> 00:35:02,360 Speaker 1: But what they say is, well, you need to convince 569 00:35:02,520 --> 00:35:06,240 Speaker 1: us that your E s G products or true truly 570 00:35:06,480 --> 00:35:08,880 Speaker 1: s G. So there is more scope for sort of 571 00:35:09,440 --> 00:35:14,080 Speaker 1: monitoring closely the extent of greenwashing, so you don't buy 572 00:35:14,360 --> 00:35:18,120 Speaker 1: s gds that have Chevron or or to telling them. 573 00:35:18,600 --> 00:35:21,600 Speaker 1: But whether that is ambitious enough for the scale of 574 00:35:21,719 --> 00:35:27,000 Speaker 1: the low cartment transition, I am a bit skeptical, right, Well, Danielle, 575 00:35:27,120 --> 00:35:31,680 Speaker 1: it's sort of been a disheartening subject to talk with 576 00:35:31,880 --> 00:35:35,440 Speaker 1: you about, but I suppose it is an important topic. 577 00:35:35,600 --> 00:35:38,439 Speaker 1: And this idea that even though we agree something needs 578 00:35:38,480 --> 00:35:41,240 Speaker 1: to be done on climate change, we haven't actually agreed 579 00:35:41,600 --> 00:35:45,560 Speaker 1: on the individual policies is very very critical to actually 580 00:35:45,840 --> 00:35:49,000 Speaker 1: doing something about it and getting it right. So thank 581 00:35:49,040 --> 00:35:51,880 Speaker 1: you so much for coming on. Thank you. It was 582 00:35:51,920 --> 00:35:55,640 Speaker 1: a pleasure to bring not so good news, but there 583 00:35:55,719 --> 00:35:59,560 Speaker 1: is always optics some reality and that was great. That 584 00:35:59,640 --> 00:36:03,040 Speaker 1: was the best, most interesting conversation I've had about E. S. 585 00:36:03,120 --> 00:36:06,520 Speaker 1: G Ever and I in all seriousness, and it's actually 586 00:36:06,560 --> 00:36:09,080 Speaker 1: really helping me like think about this, and I really 587 00:36:09,160 --> 00:36:11,840 Speaker 1: do think the sort of like parallels and the expectations 588 00:36:12,080 --> 00:36:15,600 Speaker 1: of this sort of last several decades and how that's 589 00:36:15,640 --> 00:36:19,840 Speaker 1: informed are thinking on financing climate initiative. It's just like 590 00:36:20,000 --> 00:36:23,320 Speaker 1: a very useful framing. So that was great, great, Thank you, 591 00:36:36,520 --> 00:36:38,520 Speaker 1: so Joe. I think the fact that we managed to 592 00:36:38,560 --> 00:36:41,799 Speaker 1: have an interesting conversation about E s G is sort 593 00:36:41,840 --> 00:36:44,799 Speaker 1: of an accomplishment in its own right because a lot 594 00:36:44,880 --> 00:36:48,200 Speaker 1: of these sorry, a lot of these takes are really 595 00:36:48,320 --> 00:36:50,520 Speaker 1: repetitive though, and sort of make the same point over 596 00:36:50,600 --> 00:36:53,560 Speaker 1: and over and over and are very press release ee. 597 00:36:54,160 --> 00:36:57,640 Speaker 1: But you're absolutely right, there are tons of overlaps between 598 00:36:57,680 --> 00:37:00,200 Speaker 1: what's happening in E s G right now and that 599 00:37:00,520 --> 00:37:05,000 Speaker 1: big theme of you know, the handover to government's overall. Yeah, 600 00:37:05,880 --> 00:37:09,600 Speaker 1: you're just thinking about like this expectation that's existed for 601 00:37:09,760 --> 00:37:13,400 Speaker 1: so long that like markets must play a role, that 602 00:37:13,600 --> 00:37:18,160 Speaker 1: like sure, governments can have initiatives and goals and endeavors 603 00:37:18,239 --> 00:37:21,480 Speaker 1: and all that stuff, but that you know, ultimately markets 604 00:37:21,560 --> 00:37:24,120 Speaker 1: must be our vehicle to get there, and how embedded 605 00:37:24,200 --> 00:37:25,879 Speaker 1: that is. And then when you like sort of like okay, 606 00:37:25,920 --> 00:37:28,680 Speaker 1: we're gonna address climate change, we're going to have this 607 00:37:29,360 --> 00:37:32,400 Speaker 1: backstop then for market investors, and then we're gonna have 608 00:37:32,480 --> 00:37:37,320 Speaker 1: this versioning moment, it really makes sense why ultimately that 609 00:37:37,600 --> 00:37:42,760 Speaker 1: led to our clug inboxes basically, Yeah, And in the meantime, 610 00:37:42,840 --> 00:37:44,960 Speaker 1: it does really feel like we are sort of in 611 00:37:45,080 --> 00:37:50,040 Speaker 1: this awkward phase where we have a patchwork of regulations 612 00:37:50,160 --> 00:37:53,400 Speaker 1: which leads to a bunch of different incentives. And I 613 00:37:53,520 --> 00:37:55,719 Speaker 1: have to say one of my favorite examples of that 614 00:37:56,080 --> 00:37:59,400 Speaker 1: um I think it was from City Group back in 615 00:38:00,160 --> 00:38:04,120 Speaker 1: ten maybe, but they were looking at funding costs for 616 00:38:04,239 --> 00:38:07,840 Speaker 1: European energy companies and they found that they were on 617 00:38:08,000 --> 00:38:14,280 Speaker 1: average more expensive than US energy companies because European investors 618 00:38:14,400 --> 00:38:18,120 Speaker 1: cared more about E s G. And we're punishing the 619 00:38:18,200 --> 00:38:22,359 Speaker 1: European energy companies. So that's like a skewed outcome, right, 620 00:38:22,600 --> 00:38:27,000 Speaker 1: The US energy companies who are doing less for clean 621 00:38:27,120 --> 00:38:30,360 Speaker 1: energy get rewarded, while the European companies who are actually 622 00:38:30,440 --> 00:38:34,160 Speaker 1: trying to do something end up getting punished because Europe 623 00:38:34,200 --> 00:38:36,560 Speaker 1: and the US are sort of on different speeds or 624 00:38:36,640 --> 00:38:39,920 Speaker 1: different levels when it comes to E s G. You know, 625 00:38:40,000 --> 00:38:42,040 Speaker 1: one of the things when we talked to Stephanie Kelton 626 00:38:42,120 --> 00:38:44,320 Speaker 1: about m M T and the one of the points 627 00:38:44,520 --> 00:38:47,000 Speaker 1: she made, which I think is very powerful, is not 628 00:38:47,200 --> 00:38:50,480 Speaker 1: that like it changes the politics per se, because different 629 00:38:50,480 --> 00:38:53,880 Speaker 1: political factions have different priorities. But we can have a 630 00:38:53,960 --> 00:38:56,880 Speaker 1: more honest debate if we sort of recognize that the 631 00:38:56,960 --> 00:39:00,279 Speaker 1: constraints on government spending aren't what we were told, and 632 00:39:00,400 --> 00:39:02,320 Speaker 1: so you can sort of like tell this story and 633 00:39:02,440 --> 00:39:06,840 Speaker 1: Danielle have basically said it where if everyone believes that, okay, 634 00:39:06,880 --> 00:39:08,680 Speaker 1: there is this sort of like strong limit to what 635 00:39:08,800 --> 00:39:13,000 Speaker 1: governments can spend, then you basically have to create a 636 00:39:13,040 --> 00:39:18,480 Speaker 1: big role for private capital in financing UH sustainability initiatives 637 00:39:18,520 --> 00:39:21,360 Speaker 1: and private markets. But if you if you remove that 638 00:39:21,520 --> 00:39:23,759 Speaker 1: expectation and you sort of say, you know what, the 639 00:39:23,800 --> 00:39:26,600 Speaker 1: government actually has a lot more fiscal flexibility than we thought, 640 00:39:27,040 --> 00:39:31,759 Speaker 1: you can start to conceive of investments into sustainability, into 641 00:39:32,040 --> 00:39:35,400 Speaker 1: climate that are totally public focused, where there's not as 642 00:39:35,480 --> 00:39:37,279 Speaker 1: much fear of like, oh where is the money going 643 00:39:37,360 --> 00:39:39,360 Speaker 1: to come from? And I do think you see this 644 00:39:39,480 --> 00:39:41,440 Speaker 1: shift then, which you know, you get from like this 645 00:39:41,520 --> 00:39:44,239 Speaker 1: sort of like the E s G Thinking to the 646 00:39:44,360 --> 00:39:47,640 Speaker 1: Green New Deal thinking, which is very much about just 647 00:39:47,760 --> 00:39:49,560 Speaker 1: put it on the government's balance sheet. And you can 648 00:39:49,600 --> 00:39:52,320 Speaker 1: see then why private actors would be very anxious about it. 649 00:39:52,719 --> 00:39:55,560 Speaker 1: You know, there's black Rock on one hand and then 650 00:39:55,640 --> 00:39:59,279 Speaker 1: there's Greta the teenager talking about climate on another hand. 651 00:39:59,360 --> 00:40:01,239 Speaker 1: But you could kind of make the argument that it 652 00:40:01,400 --> 00:40:03,960 Speaker 1: isn't this sort of like continuous thing, it's actually like 653 00:40:04,040 --> 00:40:06,560 Speaker 1: a very like big break. It's sort of like rethinking 654 00:40:06,640 --> 00:40:09,960 Speaker 1: it and this sort of like the Greta vision is 655 00:40:10,080 --> 00:40:12,400 Speaker 1: much more threatening to all the money in the space 656 00:40:13,120 --> 00:40:18,160 Speaker 1: the teenager talking about climate that's how you describe. Yeah, yeah, well, 657 00:40:18,200 --> 00:40:20,480 Speaker 1: I mean like it does feel like it's a break right, 658 00:40:20,560 --> 00:40:24,279 Speaker 1: Like it's like a different thing. I totally agree. And 659 00:40:25,360 --> 00:40:28,200 Speaker 1: the interesting thing now is going to be to watch, um, 660 00:40:28,400 --> 00:40:32,080 Speaker 1: what actually happens to the E S G industry in 661 00:40:32,239 --> 00:40:35,400 Speaker 1: private finance that has cropped up. So you know, do 662 00:40:35,560 --> 00:40:39,160 Speaker 1: they partner with governments um in the way that Danielle 663 00:40:39,280 --> 00:40:42,680 Speaker 1: was describing, or do they start shrinking and these hundreds 664 00:40:42,719 --> 00:40:46,440 Speaker 1: and hundreds of new funds find themselves squeezed out by 665 00:40:46,719 --> 00:40:51,000 Speaker 1: public investment or does some fun just pay Greta a 666 00:40:51,040 --> 00:40:54,920 Speaker 1: bunch of money and we get a Greta. It's yeah, Uh, 667 00:40:55,520 --> 00:40:57,239 Speaker 1: that would actually work, wouldn't it. You could even have 668 00:40:57,320 --> 00:41:02,160 Speaker 1: Greta as the ticker. Okay, Well, on that note, uh, 669 00:41:02,360 --> 00:41:05,520 Speaker 1: should we leave it there? Let's leave it there. This 670 00:41:05,719 --> 00:41:09,200 Speaker 1: has been another episode of the All Thoughts podcast. I'm 671 00:41:09,280 --> 00:41:12,040 Speaker 1: Tracy Alloway. You can follow me on Twitter at Tracy 672 00:41:12,120 --> 00:41:14,920 Speaker 1: Alloway and I'm Joe Wisn't though. You can follow me 673 00:41:15,160 --> 00:41:17,799 Speaker 1: on Twitter at the Stalwart and you should Follow our 674 00:41:17,840 --> 00:41:21,600 Speaker 1: guest on Twitter, Daniello Gabor She's at Daniello Gabor, and 675 00:41:21,800 --> 00:41:25,640 Speaker 1: follow our producer Laura Carlson. She's at Laura M. Carlson. 676 00:41:25,880 --> 00:41:29,640 Speaker 1: Follow the Bloomberg head of podcast, Francesca Levi at Francesca Today, 677 00:41:30,040 --> 00:41:32,800 Speaker 1: and check out all of our podcasts under the handle 678 00:41:33,440 --> 00:42:01,719 Speaker 1: at podcasts. Thanks for listening, a