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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast Action. All right, here we go

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Speaker 1: throwing spect we're sitting. It's a cash touchdown. That's we

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Speaker 1: see most gamble is when they go to gamble, they

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Speaker 1: go to win. That's incredible.

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Speaker 2: Being bank small banks, I like to make money.

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Speaker 1: All right, this is the ultimate combine.

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Speaker 2: You want to and we are under way. Welcome to

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Speaker 2: the Action Network Podcast. I am your host, Evan Abrams,

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Speaker 2: and I am joined by Brandon Anderson for some best

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Speaker 2: that's for NFL Week two. We'll get to those bets shortly,

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Speaker 2: but first we've got some fun talking points heading into

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Speaker 2: week two. All in my primary article on actionetwork dot com.

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Speaker 2: But I kind of wanted to go through one or

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Speaker 2: two of these, so I honestly wanted to start with Detroit.

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Speaker 2: So open minus four and a half, now up to

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Speaker 2: minus six at home against the Bears. Lions looked pretty

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Speaker 2: off last week without Ben Johnson, but now it's the

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Speaker 2: real test because you get another game. Another sets sample

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Speaker 2: size here. So Detroit has won and covered their last

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Speaker 2: ten games after a straight up loss, beating an NFC

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Speaker 2: North team in that spot four different times. I know

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Speaker 2: Brandon's gonna talk Lions Bears in a second So our

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Speaker 2: next trend here is Casey Philly. So Casey opened minus

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Speaker 2: one and a half. Now it's Philly minus one and

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Speaker 2: a half. So this is probably my favorite stature is

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Speaker 2: because of the intricacies of it a little bit. But

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Speaker 2: Mahomes only closed as a home dog once in his

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Speaker 2: career twenty twenty two versus the Bills closed plus two

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Speaker 2: and a half, lost by four. So Mahomes has closed

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Speaker 2: minus two and a half for shorter at home eight

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Speaker 2: times in his career, so basically a small favorite born underdog.

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Speaker 2: In all eight games, he has never seen the line

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Speaker 2: move in his direction between the opening and closing line,

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Speaker 2: so minus three to minus five would be the example.

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Speaker 2: So the market seems to always look for this shiny

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Speaker 2: new object in the other team who was set to

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Speaker 2: the throne him, which I find is kind of interesting.

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Speaker 2: And Mahomes four and four straight up in ats in

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Speaker 2: those games, so when it's truly a toss up at home,

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Speaker 2: who knows. And then I'll leave you with this. UNDERS

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Speaker 2: twelve and four last week tied for the best mark

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Speaker 2: since two thousand, but I found it interesting. So the

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Speaker 2: three years that also had that twelve and four mark,

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Speaker 2: UNDERS went seventeen and twenty nine in week two, so

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Speaker 2: a little bit of a flip, and this is a

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Speaker 2: crazy one. Road favorites five and one straight up in

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Speaker 2: week one. The one loss was Baltimore, so probably should

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Speaker 2: have been six and oh. Road favorites eighty five and

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Speaker 2: twenty nine since the start of last season seventy five percent.

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Speaker 2: A lot of road favorites this week. Brandon bringing you

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Speaker 2: in now you can kind of hit on anything I

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Speaker 2: talked about, but we're about to start to get week two.

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Speaker 2: Get his some best bets. What's your thoughts here?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, you mentioned the Unders. We got the Unders, My

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Speaker 1: two favorite unders already on the hot read from some

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Speaker 1: so grab those if you haven't yet. That those lines

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Speaker 1: already moving in our direction. I'm glad you brought up

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Speaker 1: the Chiefs Eagles here. I cannot find a direction I

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Speaker 1: want to go on this game, so I do not

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Speaker 1: have a play on it. Mahomes, I believe twenty one

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Speaker 1: and a four straight up after a loss. However, he

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Speaker 1: just lost after a loss. We're on a two game

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Speaker 1: living streak now, so and of course one of those

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Speaker 1: losses was to this team when there was a giant

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Speaker 1: zero next to his team's number for a lot of

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Speaker 1: the game before some late garbage stuff. So I don't know, man, Like,

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Speaker 1: we don't really feel great about either of these teams

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Speaker 1: right now. I feel like we don't love The Chiefs

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Speaker 1: are missing a lot of dudes. It does look like zevier'

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Speaker 1: worthy is practicing a little bit. I did not expect

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Speaker 1: him to play. We'll see Lennon Dickerson for the Eagles.

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Speaker 1: Kind of a question mark. I don't know what we're

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Speaker 1: gonna get. I try to talk myself into some Travis

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Speaker 1: Kelce props, like, okay, if all the other receivers are out,

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Speaker 1: maybe it's a Kelsey escalator. But the Eagles were like

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Speaker 1: the best team against tight ends last year. I just

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Speaker 1: can't find an angle I want, and I don't necessarily know.

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Speaker 1: I think either one of these teams losing this game,

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Speaker 1: the fans will be kind in panic mode, and I

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Speaker 1: know the Eagles would be one and one still, but

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Speaker 1: I don't think they feel that great after Game one,

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Speaker 1: and Chiefs certainly don't and don't want to start out

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Speaker 1: zero and two. So it's the game of the week.

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Speaker 1: I'm sure it'll lead us on Sunday night when we

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Speaker 1: talk about the games. I don't have a play, but

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Speaker 1: the trends certainly are begging you to bet on mahomes.

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Speaker 1: They were in the Super Bowl too, it did not

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Speaker 1: go well. I trusted them, so we'll see how it goes.

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Speaker 2: I like Philly, I put in the app so that

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Speaker 2: I've taken a stance there. And let me tell you something.

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Speaker 2: If Casey starts zero and two, that's going to be

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Speaker 2: a lot different than Philly at one and one. I

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Speaker 2: feel like that'll lead every conversation everywhere. So all right,

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Speaker 2: NFL season is officially here, and to get the most

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Speaker 2: and Sunday, so go check it out. All right, it

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Speaker 2: is time to get some week two best bets now.

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Speaker 2: If you want to tail some of these bets, look

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Speaker 2: for the quick sliplink in the podcast and video description

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Speaker 2: or go to Actionnetwork dot com slash bet now b

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Speaker 2: e t n ow I actually did this this morning,

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Speaker 2: super super easy to be able to list all of

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Speaker 2: the bets coming from each of these podcasts, one click

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Speaker 2: and bet, super super easy. This is your best bet, Brandon,

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Speaker 2: You're gonna start here with Chicago and Detroit. I'm with

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Speaker 2: you here, So what do you like?

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Speaker 1: Yeah? This did not go well for us in week one.

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Speaker 1: Neither factoring Chicago nor any of the bets we've given

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Speaker 1: out Week one is tough. Let's hope we settle in

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Speaker 1: a little bit better in week two. I'm going back

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Speaker 1: to the well with the Bears. Give me the Bears

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Speaker 1: plus six and a half at the Lions. There's still

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Speaker 1: a couple of six and a half out there. I

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Speaker 1: see one at ESPN bet right now. You mentioned this

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Speaker 1: line already, so I want to talk about that. To

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Speaker 1: start out. This thing climbed all week. It was four

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Speaker 1: and a half Sunday morning. It's been climbing. I think

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Speaker 1: it peaked. I don't think we get to a seven.

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Speaker 1: We're mostly sick consensus now. So a couple of these

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Speaker 1: lines today. We'll talk about now or later. This is

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Speaker 1: a now for me. Grab Bears six and a half

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Speaker 1: now while it's there. Why is the line moving? I

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Speaker 1: think two things. It's an overreaction to Monday night football,

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Speaker 1: and it's the injuries. Well, the injuries I think are

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Speaker 1: gonna move in Chicago's favor. Jalen Johnson is practicing now,

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Speaker 1: their star corner TG Edwards, linebacker, he's practicing. I think

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Speaker 1: those guys play. I think Chicago will be mostly fine

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Speaker 1: and better off than they were Monday night. I think

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Speaker 1: Detroit actually is the worst injury situation. Terry and Arnold

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Speaker 1: their corner, Taylor Decker a tackle, Jack Campbell their star linebacker.

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Speaker 1: Those guys are all kind of limited in a practice.

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Speaker 1: We don't know if they'll play or necessarily if they'll finish.

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Speaker 1: And non't forget, we're already missing both defensive tackles on

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Speaker 1: this team to start the year. So I actually feel

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Speaker 1: like this line, if anything, injury wise, should move a

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Speaker 1: little towards Chicago. So I think, really this is a

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Speaker 1: reaction to we all watched Monday night and we all

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Speaker 1: kind of saw the Bears choke, right, and in some

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Speaker 1: way it's a very different game. But we saw the

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Speaker 1: Ravens choke on Sunday night, and I think we've kind

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Speaker 1: of recovered. He's like, ah, right, Well, we know the

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Speaker 1: Ravens are pretty good though, and they're up a lot,

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Speaker 1: so yeah, they choked, but you know they're good for

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Speaker 1: a while. Okay, the Bears were pretty good for a while.

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Speaker 1: Seventeen to six after three quarters, with a coaching debut

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Speaker 1: for the whole staff and effectively a rookie quarterback Caleb Williams. You, guys,

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Speaker 1: throughout last season, given the situation from a year ago,

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Speaker 1: we saw Ben Johnson not great as a head coach,

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Speaker 1: bad challenge, bad kickoff air late, not great. But Ben

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Speaker 1: Johnson the play caller still scheming, guys open, lots of

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Speaker 1: good looks that Caleb Williams was missing. But in this game,

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Speaker 1: Bears Lions. We're always playing Bears here. This is the

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Speaker 1: thing we talked about all preseason long. This is the

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Speaker 1: Ben Johnson game, right So coordinators only, not head coach

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Speaker 1: coordinators calling plays affecting play to play. I think Detroit

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Speaker 1: is top three ben Johnson and Dennis Allen. Sorry, Chicago

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Speaker 1: is top three with Ben Johnson. I'm still getting used

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Speaker 1: to the switch. Ben Johnson not in Detroit didn't go

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Speaker 1: well last week. I thought John Moore and the new

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Speaker 1: coordinator offensively wasn't that great. I think Detroit right now,

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Speaker 1: until we know more, is probably bottom three coordinator situation.

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Speaker 1: So this is the Ben Johnson revenge game. He knows

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Speaker 1: exactly what to do, how to attack this team, how

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Speaker 1: to surprise that defense that he's practiced against for years.

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Speaker 1: And I actually grade Chicago slightly better on offense and

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Speaker 1: on defense right now. So I think it's a slightly

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Speaker 1: better team on the road short week. Don't love all that.

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Speaker 1: There's a lot of things that today I'm not really

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Speaker 1: betting the trends in a lot of cases, I'm going

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Speaker 1: to be sort of fading trends in this spot. This

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Speaker 1: is a pretty good trend spot for Chicago. So here's

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Speaker 1: some Week two trends. You had this one in the

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Speaker 1: article underdogs when both teams are zero to one, fifty

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Speaker 1: three to twenty eight to three ATS sixty five percent.

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Speaker 1: So that's for the Bears underdogs of three to seven

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Speaker 1: that did not cover in Week one in week two

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Speaker 1: forty one seventeen and two seventy one percent over the

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Speaker 1: last decade. And then one more underdogs that lost in

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Speaker 1: Week one against an opponent that's favored now but was

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Speaker 1: an underdog in Week one. There's a lot going on

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Speaker 1: there at sixty five percent ATS and on the Chicago one.

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Speaker 1: So three trends there. You mentioned with Detroit, Dan Campbell,

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Speaker 1: Jared Goff, the trends favorite Detroit in that spot, right,

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Speaker 1: Goff at home indoors as a favorite has been invincible.

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Speaker 1: That kind of scared me away for a minute, but

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Speaker 1: not enough. I've been waiting for the spot all summer

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Speaker 1: that Ben Jonson switch the trenches switch. This is the

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Speaker 1: whole position we've taken on both of these teams. So

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Speaker 1: I think those Detroit trends, those are kind of Detroit

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Speaker 1: was really good for two years trends. We'll see how

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Speaker 1: it holds up now with this version of the team.

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Speaker 1: Give me the Bears plus six and a half at

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Speaker 1: ESPN and give me the Bears money line plus two thirty.

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Speaker 1: I think they're very much live to win this outright,

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Speaker 1: and if you're ready, Bear's Island. We're not abandoning yet.

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Speaker 1: It's thirteen to one in the division at Caesars. At FtM,

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Speaker 1: they're still giving the Bears about fifteen percent chance, So

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Speaker 1: that's about double the value we're getting on a thirteen

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Speaker 1: to one ticket. I'm doubling down. I already added a

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Speaker 1: half unit on the app Bear's Island, Baby.

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Speaker 2: This is a reputation line move in a prove it game.

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Speaker 2: I think that's the easiest way to look at it.

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Speaker 2: The line moved completely based off of everybody knows the

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Speaker 2: Lions facts. The Lions trends to bounce back how they

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Speaker 2: looked in Week one. They're saying it's going to be different,

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Speaker 2: and everyone is kind of agreeing with that. While I

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Speaker 2: think if you watch the games, Chicago looked completely well

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Speaker 2: off for a long time, while Detroit looked mismanaged. So

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Speaker 2: I just think the line move is just interesting and off.

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Speaker 2: All right? Game two, you were going to Sunday night

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Speaker 2: football here Minnesota and Atlanta. You and I are on

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Speaker 2: opposite side, so nothing much to say, but you can

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Speaker 2: go who's your bad? Who do you like?

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Speaker 1: I'm back in the Vikings here, and I think I

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Speaker 1: am on the opposite side of much of our crew

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Speaker 1: at Action and much of the sharp money out there.

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Speaker 1: So I'm gonna explain why this one is another one.

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Speaker 1: The line's moved a lot. It was four and a half,

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Speaker 1: even five and a half on Sunday. The injuries have

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Speaker 1: pushed the line towards Atlanta. Here. This one, I'll tell

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Speaker 1: you right now, Vikings minus three and a half. I

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Speaker 1: would wait if you can. I think there's a good

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Speaker 1: chance we'll get to a minus three here. We'll not

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Speaker 1: get past that, but I would wait for the three

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Speaker 1: if you can get it, and if not, I'm happy

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Speaker 1: with the three. And a half or that will be

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Speaker 1: the official pick for the pot. I don't even mind

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Speaker 1: if it goes back up a little, but I don't

246
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Speaker 1: think we're losing much. But there's obviously a lot to

247
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Speaker 1: gain at the three. So let's talk injuries. Atlanta, Drake

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Speaker 1: London and Garnel Mooney. They're practicing. It looks like they

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Speaker 1: will play. That's worth about a point to the spread

250
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Speaker 1: to me for Atlanta. For Minnesota, they're also getting some

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Speaker 1: bad news. Blake Cashman linebacker goes to ir Ben Ginkel,

252
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Speaker 1: Ryan Kelly the center, Jeffacoon to the corner. These guys,

253
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Speaker 1: they you know, there's a lot of blue tent on

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Speaker 1: Monday night for Minnesota on a short week. Not great. However,

255
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Speaker 1: Christian Darisas Doud left tackle practicing full practice. He should play.

256
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Speaker 1: That's more important than like the third string corner and

257
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Speaker 1: one of your pass rushers. Gave me the star tackle

258
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Speaker 1: Harrison Smith stars safety. He's practicing. He looks like he

259
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Speaker 1: might play. Even when I downgrade the Vikings a little

260
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Speaker 1: bit and upgrade the Falcons with the receivers, I still

261
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Speaker 1: have this line double digits to the Vikings, Like I'm

262
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Speaker 1: just way off on the market here, what's Atlanta better at?

263
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Speaker 1: The Vikings line is way better, Vikings defense is way better,

264
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Speaker 1: the Vikings coaching is way better. I think the weapons

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Speaker 1: maybe Atlanta, but Minnesota's are healthier. So then it's quarterback.

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Speaker 1: And Michael Pennix has had four starts in his NFL

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Speaker 1: career five ever counting preseason zero against Brian Flores. Nothing

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Speaker 1: at all like this sort of defense on the road

269
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Speaker 1: primetime Sunday Night. Lots of stuff to like in Week one,

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Speaker 1: but lots of inaccuracy, not great moving in the pocket.

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Speaker 1: We know I Floras are gonna bring the Bletz and

272
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Speaker 1: Atlanta's O line did not look great in Week one.

273
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Speaker 1: I think Falcons defense is by far the weak link

274
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Speaker 1: in this game. Atlanta did not run the ball well

275
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Speaker 1: in Week one. I think we come away from Week

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Speaker 1: one with these two teams, we say, okay, Atlanta and

277
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Speaker 1: Tampa pretty close game. Kind of a coin flip. I

278
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Speaker 1: know Atlanta's number one of the luck rankings, they're the

279
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Speaker 1: top luck rankings play, so I'm fading that as well.

280
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Speaker 1: I think that's all true. I think those were two

281
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Speaker 1: bottom ten teams, so it is a coin flip game

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Speaker 1: between two not good teams from the NFC South. I

283
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Speaker 1: think Minnesota and Chicago are borderline top ten teams, and

284
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Speaker 1: it was just a tough battle between two really good teams.

285
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Speaker 1: So I love fading Raheem Morris here. I think it's

286
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Speaker 1: a huge coaching advantage for Minnesota. I have Atlanta in

287
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Speaker 1: my power ratings right now twenty eighth. Twenty eighth's BOTTOMN five. Sadly,

288
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Speaker 1: that's still second best in the division, but that's how

289
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Speaker 1: far ahead I have Minnesota here. I don't mind the

290
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Speaker 1: three and a half. I'll wait for three if I

291
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Speaker 1: can get it, But give me the Vikings this week.

292
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Speaker 2: I mean, yeah, if you think the Vikings are facing

293
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Speaker 2: the Panthers this week, which is basically what you're saying,

294
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Speaker 2: then three and a half feels like a low line.

295
00:15:20,680 --> 00:15:23,440
Speaker 2: So if that's the comparison you're gonna make, then it

296
00:15:23,480 --> 00:15:26,840
Speaker 2: makes sense from all points. I actually wrote down as

297
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Speaker 2: my handicapping question mark when looking at this game, how

298
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Speaker 2: Pennex will handle the blitz. It looked pretty decent in

299
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Speaker 2: Week one. It wasn't good last year, so I think

300
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Speaker 2: based off of the offensive line, the health of the weapons,

301
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Speaker 2: that's going to be the major factor here is what

302
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Speaker 2: Minnesota shows him on the defensive side of the ball.

303
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Speaker 2: All right, next game. Couldn't believe this game was actually

304
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Speaker 2: listed in here, as like you having a handicapping angle,

305
00:15:52,760 --> 00:15:54,960
Speaker 2: So honestly, I can't wait. Here. You have a bet

306
00:15:54,960 --> 00:15:58,120
Speaker 2: for San Francisco and New Orleans with us knowing that

307
00:15:58,240 --> 00:16:01,520
Speaker 2: mac Jones is starting on the as a road favorite.

308
00:16:01,520 --> 00:16:02,360
Speaker 2: So what do you like here?

309
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Speaker 1: I like Mac Jones. I am betting the Niners. Give

310
00:16:05,760 --> 00:16:09,720
Speaker 1: me the Niners minus three. That's a kind of consensus

311
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Speaker 1: right now, and I'm gonna go ahead and play this one.

312
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Speaker 1: Now we might maybe maybe drop down to two and

313
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Speaker 1: a half. I don't think so, and I want the three.

314
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Speaker 1: I don't want to risk losing it, so I guess

315
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Speaker 1: to put that. Well, I'll bet up to minus three.

316
00:16:22,920 --> 00:16:25,520
Speaker 1: If it gets past it that go ahead and skip it. Savia.

317
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Speaker 1: You heard this before. The Niners are injured, right, Okay, great,

318
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Speaker 1: every other season of all time, the Niners are injured.

319
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Speaker 1: Brock Party's out two to five weeks. Whatever the heck

320
00:16:34,200 --> 00:16:36,360
Speaker 1: that is. I don't really he has a variant of

321
00:16:36,360 --> 00:16:39,720
Speaker 1: our turf toe. We're mutating turf toes now. Apparently George

322
00:16:39,800 --> 00:16:43,960
Speaker 1: Kittle is out. Juwan Jennings. We don't know. Trent Williams

323
00:16:44,040 --> 00:16:46,360
Speaker 1: played but kind of sucked in Week one, like did

324
00:16:46,440 --> 00:16:49,400
Speaker 1: not look great. Christian McCaffrey had a huge load, but

325
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Speaker 1: he didn't look great in Week one. I'm sort of

326
00:16:52,920 --> 00:16:56,280
Speaker 1: leaning on that's rust and these guys are gonna round

327
00:16:56,320 --> 00:17:00,880
Speaker 1: into shape, I'm hoping here, But certainly Niners futures, I

328
00:17:00,920 --> 00:17:03,520
Speaker 1: would not be nearly as gung ho about them right

329
00:17:03,560 --> 00:17:06,920
Speaker 1: now as I was before the season. Everybody's hurt already,

330
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Speaker 1: but it's still the Saints. Come on, now, I downgrade

331
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Speaker 1: the Niners for all those injuries, there's still They're now

332
00:17:14,480 --> 00:17:17,720
Speaker 1: outside my top ten offense and defense. So I'm being

333
00:17:17,760 --> 00:17:20,320
Speaker 1: honest here with the Niners injuries, it's still a top

334
00:17:20,359 --> 00:17:22,600
Speaker 1: ten team for me, and the Saints are still number

335
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Speaker 1: thirty two. We mentioned in the last one betting against

336
00:17:25,440 --> 00:17:27,960
Speaker 1: the Falcons. Saints and Panthers for me are the worst

337
00:17:27,960 --> 00:17:30,560
Speaker 1: two teams in the league. And Saints have some injuries too.

338
00:17:30,640 --> 00:17:34,400
Speaker 1: Blackman the safety is out and definitely Chase Young may

339
00:17:34,400 --> 00:17:37,320
Speaker 1: not play. They got two offensive linemen first round picks

340
00:17:37,320 --> 00:17:41,960
Speaker 1: that may not play. So here's the problem. Fading myself here,

341
00:17:42,520 --> 00:17:47,399
Speaker 1: Kyle Shanahan without Jimmy Garoppolo, and without Brock Purty, it

342
00:17:47,520 --> 00:17:52,679
Speaker 1: is ghastly nine and thirty two straight up as an

343
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Speaker 1: NFL coach, including gets worse three and seventeen on the road.

344
00:17:58,160 --> 00:18:01,480
Speaker 1: Three and nine is a favorite, not a straight up.

345
00:18:02,040 --> 00:18:06,080
Speaker 1: That's not great. It's still the Saints, and I'm still

346
00:18:06,119 --> 00:18:08,760
Speaker 1: picking against the Saints. Those are all great trends that

347
00:18:08,800 --> 00:18:12,359
Speaker 1: we will probably bet against in future weeks without Brock Purdy,

348
00:18:12,680 --> 00:18:15,080
Speaker 1: but future weeks are not the Saints. And I honestly

349
00:18:15,160 --> 00:18:19,040
Speaker 1: think Mac Jones kind of might be the perfect point

350
00:18:19,040 --> 00:18:22,000
Speaker 1: guard in a Cal Shanahan system. This is the guy

351
00:18:22,040 --> 00:18:24,960
Speaker 1: Shanahan had wanted in the draft. We know that I

352
00:18:25,119 --> 00:18:28,000
Speaker 1: personally am making the down grade about two to two

353
00:18:28,040 --> 00:18:30,800
Speaker 1: and a half points at quarterback. I've seen the others

354
00:18:30,840 --> 00:18:32,520
Speaker 1: out there put it close to four or four and

355
00:18:32,560 --> 00:18:36,280
Speaker 1: a half. Even if it's that, even with my downgrades

356
00:18:36,320 --> 00:18:39,800
Speaker 1: for all the injuries, I still have this Niners minus nine.

357
00:18:40,280 --> 00:18:42,440
Speaker 1: So even if you take a few more points off,

358
00:18:42,680 --> 00:18:45,640
Speaker 1: we're at minus three. I'm easily past the seven, the six,

359
00:18:45,720 --> 00:18:47,879
Speaker 1: all those key numbers. We're at the bottom key number.

360
00:18:48,440 --> 00:18:53,200
Speaker 1: So it's not comfortable. It's Mac Jones on the road

361
00:18:53,280 --> 00:18:56,119
Speaker 1: with God knows who he's throwing two on this team,

362
00:18:56,640 --> 00:19:01,800
Speaker 1: But frankly, if we lose to the Saints Niners minus three,

363
00:19:01,920 --> 00:19:02,840
Speaker 1: I just have to play it.

364
00:19:03,600 --> 00:19:05,680
Speaker 2: At this point. I'm just have to accept that the

365
00:19:05,760 --> 00:19:08,879
Speaker 2: Niners are gonna start two to zero and be completely

366
00:19:09,080 --> 00:19:11,119
Speaker 2: just the walking dead, and I'm just gonna have to

367
00:19:11,200 --> 00:19:13,520
Speaker 2: accept the fact that they're on their way to making

368
00:19:13,560 --> 00:19:16,760
Speaker 2: the playoffs with this type of roster, and I have

369
00:19:16,840 --> 00:19:19,600
Speaker 2: to be wrong, but yet kind of right. It's gonna

370
00:19:19,600 --> 00:19:23,000
Speaker 2: be a little frustrating. All right, next bet here, So

371
00:19:23,040 --> 00:19:26,480
Speaker 2: you've got two props back to back. I honestly like

372
00:19:26,520 --> 00:19:28,200
Speaker 2: both of them. I have a few numbers to kind

373
00:19:28,200 --> 00:19:29,679
Speaker 2: of back you up here, But why don't you get

374
00:19:29,760 --> 00:19:32,159
Speaker 2: us started? You like James Connor this week?

375
00:19:32,640 --> 00:19:35,000
Speaker 1: I love James Connor this week. This honestly might be

376
00:19:35,080 --> 00:19:38,359
Speaker 1: my favorite bet of the podcast. James Connor, We're taking

377
00:19:38,400 --> 00:19:41,000
Speaker 1: the over rushing yards over sixty and a half at

378
00:19:41,000 --> 00:19:43,640
Speaker 1: Caesars and then we got a lot of escalators here.

379
00:19:43,720 --> 00:19:47,480
Speaker 1: So this is a bet fading the Panthers. We're fading

380
00:19:47,560 --> 00:19:50,040
Speaker 1: the whole NFC South all back to back to back here,

381
00:19:50,119 --> 00:19:54,760
Speaker 1: Falcons then Saints then Panthers. Gotta love that Panthers looked

382
00:19:54,880 --> 00:19:58,440
Speaker 1: terrible in Week one. They look so bad against the Jaguars.

383
00:19:58,440 --> 00:20:01,000
Speaker 1: Their defense looked as bad that is ever, especially the

384
00:20:01,119 --> 00:20:04,880
Speaker 1: run defense. Remember this last year was number thirty two

385
00:20:04,920 --> 00:20:06,800
Speaker 1: defense in the NFL with a bullet they were the

386
00:20:06,840 --> 00:20:09,520
Speaker 1: worst run defense in the league. They've already lost the

387
00:20:09,560 --> 00:20:12,920
Speaker 1: defensive tackle for this season. Here's the line if you're

388
00:20:13,000 --> 00:20:16,040
Speaker 1: running back that played Carolina last season, if you could

389
00:20:16,080 --> 00:20:19,000
Speaker 1: have just started in your fantasy league, whoever is playing

390
00:20:19,000 --> 00:20:21,639
Speaker 1: Carolina at running back? That's that's my running back for

391
00:20:21,680 --> 00:20:24,879
Speaker 1: the week. Here's your line for the season. Four hundred

392
00:20:24,880 --> 00:20:28,199
Speaker 1: and eighty six carries, which is fifty carries more than

393
00:20:28,280 --> 00:20:32,639
Speaker 1: any other team for two thousand, five hundred and twenty yards.

394
00:20:32,960 --> 00:20:35,840
Speaker 1: That's like an all time NFL record running back. Because

395
00:20:35,840 --> 00:20:38,000
Speaker 1: I got to play Carolina Panthers. Evan, you and me

396
00:20:38,400 --> 00:20:40,760
Speaker 1: might be running for one hundred yards on this Panthers defense.

397
00:20:41,040 --> 00:20:44,280
Speaker 1: They gave up eighteen touchdowns. Only one other team even

398
00:20:44,320 --> 00:20:47,200
Speaker 1: allowed more than two thousand yards. They allowed twenty five

399
00:20:47,280 --> 00:20:50,040
Speaker 1: hundred yards. So Week one, when we get the Jaguars

400
00:20:50,200 --> 00:20:53,000
Speaker 1: who haven't run on anybody for years, and at Tien

401
00:20:53,080 --> 00:20:54,600
Speaker 1: goes out and has one hundred and forty three yards

402
00:20:54,640 --> 00:20:57,639
Speaker 1: right away in week one. So I think this is

403
00:20:57,720 --> 00:21:00,879
Speaker 1: maybe a breakout spot for Drew Petsing's off cards do

404
00:21:00,920 --> 00:21:03,320
Speaker 1: not look great in week one, I'll admit, but you

405
00:21:03,480 --> 00:21:06,919
Speaker 1: want James Connor overs in a game where Arizona wins.

406
00:21:07,040 --> 00:21:11,119
Speaker 1: Those are very close correlation. Here's the numbers last two seasons.

407
00:21:11,480 --> 00:21:16,120
Speaker 1: Eleven wins with James Connor over one thousand yards, ten touchdowns,

408
00:21:16,160 --> 00:21:18,720
Speaker 1: so he's averaging ninety two yards a game, almost a

409
00:21:18,760 --> 00:21:23,360
Speaker 1: touchdown a game. In the losses eight touchdowns and eighteen losses,

410
00:21:23,400 --> 00:21:26,240
Speaker 1: so under half a touchdown a game, sixty two yards

411
00:21:26,280 --> 00:21:29,480
Speaker 1: a game, so thirty yards last per game. That's the difference.

412
00:21:29,480 --> 00:21:31,680
Speaker 1: So to me, do I want the six and a

413
00:21:31,720 --> 00:21:35,280
Speaker 1: half on the points? I don't know if I trust

414
00:21:35,280 --> 00:21:37,560
Speaker 1: Arizona quite that much right now. Did not look great

415
00:21:37,640 --> 00:21:40,679
Speaker 1: last week. I'll play a proxy instead. Give me James Connor,

416
00:21:40,760 --> 00:21:43,719
Speaker 1: so over sixteen and a half yards, that's the proxy

417
00:21:43,760 --> 00:21:47,080
Speaker 1: for the cards win. Now here's the escalator. One hundred

418
00:21:47,160 --> 00:21:50,160
Speaker 1: yards are more. He's had ninety eight yards or more

419
00:21:50,160 --> 00:21:52,640
Speaker 1: in seven of those eleven wins, over half of them.

420
00:21:53,000 --> 00:21:55,040
Speaker 1: We're getting five to one at bet three six five

421
00:21:55,040 --> 00:21:57,439
Speaker 1: one hundred yards. Sign me up for that one, not

422
00:21:57,600 --> 00:21:59,480
Speaker 1: just a nibble. That will be a real portion of

423
00:21:59,520 --> 00:22:03,119
Speaker 1: my bet. If you like touchdowns, touchdowns and seven of

424
00:22:03,160 --> 00:22:06,800
Speaker 1: those eleven wins, that's a minus one thirty five. I'm

425
00:22:06,800 --> 00:22:08,480
Speaker 1: gonna take the escalator all the way to the top

426
00:22:08,520 --> 00:22:11,240
Speaker 1: with touchdowns. I'm gonna go for the big Connor game.

427
00:22:11,320 --> 00:22:14,800
Speaker 1: One hundred yards plus two touchdowns at bet three sixty five.

428
00:22:14,840 --> 00:22:18,360
Speaker 1: That one is plus sixteen hundred. So just their recap,

429
00:22:18,760 --> 00:22:21,280
Speaker 1: James Connor over sixteen and a half yards are the

430
00:22:21,320 --> 00:22:24,400
Speaker 1: best line. You can get one hundred yards five to one,

431
00:22:24,600 --> 00:22:27,120
Speaker 1: and then one hundred plus two touchdowns sixteen to one.

432
00:22:27,480 --> 00:22:29,520
Speaker 1: And be sure to watch the quick slip in the link.

433
00:22:29,560 --> 00:22:31,359
Speaker 1: You can see all those bets right there for you.

434
00:22:32,280 --> 00:22:34,760
Speaker 2: So I'll ask a question and then tell you why

435
00:22:34,800 --> 00:22:36,639
Speaker 2: I like the bet, and then I'll let you answer

436
00:22:36,640 --> 00:22:40,000
Speaker 2: the question. Is there any worry about the carries for Benson?

437
00:22:40,119 --> 00:22:41,600
Speaker 2: I want you to answer that after I get this

438
00:22:41,680 --> 00:22:45,119
Speaker 2: stat The reason I like the Connor bet when he

439
00:22:45,160 --> 00:22:47,280
Speaker 2: gets fifteen plus carries, which I think is part of

440
00:22:47,320 --> 00:22:49,760
Speaker 2: this wager. If Arizona's winning on they're running the ball,

441
00:22:50,080 --> 00:22:52,920
Speaker 2: he's averaging ninety four yards on the ground in his

442
00:22:53,000 --> 00:22:56,280
Speaker 2: last twenty eighteen and two to the over on sixty

443
00:22:56,320 --> 00:22:59,320
Speaker 2: plus when he gets those fifteen carries, So to me,

444
00:22:59,359 --> 00:23:01,399
Speaker 2: it makes sense. Is there any worry about Benson? He

445
00:23:01,520 --> 00:23:02,800
Speaker 2: seemed like he was getting a lot of run.

446
00:23:03,400 --> 00:23:06,520
Speaker 1: Yeah. I can't say no, because last week I said

447
00:23:06,560 --> 00:23:08,520
Speaker 1: my favorite bet was David and Joku, and you asked

448
00:23:08,520 --> 00:23:10,600
Speaker 1: if I had any worry about Harold Dan and I

449
00:23:10,680 --> 00:23:13,240
Speaker 1: shrugged it off, and I lost the bet very badly

450
00:23:13,280 --> 00:23:15,960
Speaker 1: because of it. So I'm gonna take it into account.

451
00:23:16,359 --> 00:23:18,480
Speaker 1: I think that again in this game, if it goes

452
00:23:18,520 --> 00:23:21,000
Speaker 1: as I expect, like I do, think this is probably

453
00:23:21,040 --> 00:23:23,280
Speaker 1: an Arizona blowout. I think that they can really put

454
00:23:23,359 --> 00:23:25,520
Speaker 1: up some points. I think there's gonna be carries for

455
00:23:25,560 --> 00:23:27,920
Speaker 1: both of these guys. So I think Benson can get

456
00:23:27,960 --> 00:23:30,720
Speaker 1: eight twelve touches and Connor can still get like you said,

457
00:23:30,760 --> 00:23:34,080
Speaker 1: fifteen carries, twenty carries, those sort of numbers, So I

458
00:23:34,119 --> 00:23:37,160
Speaker 1: can't shrug it off entirely. But I think he's gonna

459
00:23:37,160 --> 00:23:40,000
Speaker 1: be the lead guy. And this was a team that

460
00:23:40,480 --> 00:23:43,199
Speaker 1: wanted to run the ball like that's their offense, and

461
00:23:43,240 --> 00:23:45,119
Speaker 1: they did not look at good in Week one, and

462
00:23:45,160 --> 00:23:46,920
Speaker 1: I think that they're gonna want to kind of show

463
00:23:47,000 --> 00:23:50,040
Speaker 1: up against Carolina. I think it's a mistake. Jacksonville ran

464
00:23:50,160 --> 00:23:52,439
Speaker 1: so well last week. I think that they kind of

465
00:23:52,480 --> 00:23:55,159
Speaker 1: game plan knowing, Okay, Carolina can just get run on.

466
00:23:55,240 --> 00:23:57,400
Speaker 1: So I expect more from Arizona that way too.

467
00:23:58,040 --> 00:24:00,359
Speaker 2: Our producer Gaving fan, we might need a Aren't you

468
00:24:00,400 --> 00:24:04,119
Speaker 2: worried about like drop every time I do that? Because

469
00:24:04,160 --> 00:24:05,040
Speaker 2: you are completely right?

470
00:24:05,119 --> 00:24:05,960
Speaker 1: Should I be worried?

471
00:24:06,200 --> 00:24:09,040
Speaker 2: All right? Your last prop before a lightning round? You

472
00:24:09,119 --> 00:24:11,720
Speaker 2: like Breis Hall this week? I think this is intriguing.

473
00:24:11,720 --> 00:24:14,080
Speaker 2: So how are you betting it? What are you looking at? Yeah?

474
00:24:14,080 --> 00:24:16,480
Speaker 1: So I'm gonna try a longest rush prop here? Give

475
00:24:16,480 --> 00:24:19,400
Speaker 1: me Breese Tall longest run over fourteen and a half

476
00:24:19,520 --> 00:24:23,280
Speaker 1: yards at DraftKings. So, come out of week one, I

477
00:24:23,280 --> 00:24:25,880
Speaker 1: think the Jets are more one of the more intriguing teams. Right.

478
00:24:25,920 --> 00:24:29,200
Speaker 1: We saw a great game from Justin Fields. Tanner Engstrand,

479
00:24:29,240 --> 00:24:31,120
Speaker 1: the new offensive coordinator. You hear a lot of talk

480
00:24:31,160 --> 00:24:34,159
Speaker 1: about him on podcasts this week. In articles from the

481
00:24:34,200 --> 00:24:37,639
Speaker 1: Ben Johnson Three, we know we love Ben Johnson. I

482
00:24:37,680 --> 00:24:41,680
Speaker 1: even heard this week is Ben Johnson a Tanner Engstrand merchant?

483
00:24:42,040 --> 00:24:44,480
Speaker 1: What maybe it was all Tanner the whole time. Maybe

484
00:24:44,480 --> 00:24:46,960
Speaker 1: he was the genius behind the run game. He's the

485
00:24:47,040 --> 00:24:49,520
Speaker 1: run coordinator from that team. And what do we see

486
00:24:49,520 --> 00:24:53,119
Speaker 1: from the Jets? Super super run heavy by far most

487
00:24:53,160 --> 00:24:56,040
Speaker 1: of any team in the league. As expected, Breese Hall

488
00:24:56,240 --> 00:25:00,800
Speaker 1: nineteen carries one hundred and seven yards and including explod runs,

489
00:25:01,200 --> 00:25:04,080
Speaker 1: the Jets had almost eight percent of their carries for

490
00:25:04,200 --> 00:25:06,439
Speaker 1: fifteen yards or more. That was second best in the

491
00:25:06,520 --> 00:25:10,400
Speaker 1: NFL only two teams above five percent. The other one

492
00:25:10,760 --> 00:25:13,840
Speaker 1: was the Ravens at twelve percent. Hey, who the Ravens

493
00:25:13,840 --> 00:25:16,720
Speaker 1: play last week? Oh? That's right. The team the Jets

494
00:25:16,720 --> 00:25:19,840
Speaker 1: are playing right now, the Bills who got gashed over

495
00:25:19,880 --> 00:25:22,479
Speaker 1: and over by those long runs that we kept seeing.

496
00:25:22,520 --> 00:25:25,359
Speaker 1: And now I think this is a classic letdown spot

497
00:25:25,560 --> 00:25:28,920
Speaker 1: for the Bills, adrenaline letdown. They got a Thursday night

498
00:25:28,920 --> 00:25:33,280
Speaker 1: game against Miami, next week, physical game against Baltimore. I

499
00:25:33,320 --> 00:25:35,200
Speaker 1: think the Jets can run on this team. I think

500
00:25:35,200 --> 00:25:37,399
Speaker 1: the Jets can kind of hang in here and be competitive.

501
00:25:37,960 --> 00:25:42,359
Speaker 1: And weirdly, Breeze Hall has actually loved playing home against

502
00:25:42,359 --> 00:25:44,399
Speaker 1: the Bill That's been one of his two best games

503
00:25:44,440 --> 00:25:48,000
Speaker 1: each of the last two seasons. So I was like, Okay,

504
00:25:48,320 --> 00:25:51,200
Speaker 1: how do we bet this breeze is inconsistent. I don't

505
00:25:51,240 --> 00:25:53,880
Speaker 1: super trust him yet. I like him as a receiver,

506
00:25:54,119 --> 00:25:55,840
Speaker 1: but I don't really trust that they're gonna be passing

507
00:25:55,880 --> 00:25:58,800
Speaker 1: a lot. I don't trust the volume. So that's where

508
00:25:58,800 --> 00:26:00,840
Speaker 1: I got to the longest run here. I'm gonna play that,

509
00:26:00,920 --> 00:26:04,199
Speaker 1: status said, give me the explosive runs. Eight percent of

510
00:26:04,200 --> 00:26:07,800
Speaker 1: their runs fifteen or more. Last week, Breece Hall had

511
00:26:07,840 --> 00:26:11,840
Speaker 1: sixteen yards on a carry, seventeen and eighteen just last

512
00:26:11,880 --> 00:26:14,600
Speaker 1: week he hit this three times. We only get paid

513
00:26:14,600 --> 00:26:18,080
Speaker 1: out once if that happens. But for his career, he's

514
00:26:18,119 --> 00:26:21,200
Speaker 1: had more ten yard runs against Buffalo than any opponent,

515
00:26:21,400 --> 00:26:24,560
Speaker 1: nine of those, and more fifteen yard runs five of those,

516
00:26:24,600 --> 00:26:28,280
Speaker 1: including twenty four or twenty six, a forty two, and

517
00:26:28,320 --> 00:26:32,639
Speaker 1: an eighty three. So we want Breis Hall against the Bills.

518
00:26:32,920 --> 00:26:36,320
Speaker 1: The Bills have allowed last season eighteen different players to

519
00:26:36,320 --> 00:26:38,400
Speaker 1: have a run of fourteen yards or longer, at least

520
00:26:38,440 --> 00:26:41,239
Speaker 1: one in all but three games for the season. So

521
00:26:41,840 --> 00:26:44,640
Speaker 1: give me the breeze over fourteen and a half longest

522
00:26:44,720 --> 00:26:48,040
Speaker 1: run and then I just feel like this has to

523
00:26:48,040 --> 00:26:50,800
Speaker 1: be one of the more obvious escalators out here. I

524
00:26:50,960 --> 00:26:53,040
Speaker 1: like to call these escalators, not ladders, because in a

525
00:26:53,119 --> 00:26:55,320
Speaker 1: ladder I had to climb and do all the work

526
00:26:55,359 --> 00:26:58,240
Speaker 1: myself each level. The escalators doing the work for me.

527
00:26:58,320 --> 00:27:00,639
Speaker 1: If I hit one, the next yeer right there is

528
00:27:00,680 --> 00:27:03,200
Speaker 1: just moving me, moving me, moved me up. So if

529
00:27:03,240 --> 00:27:07,200
Speaker 1: Breese busts a long one and he's at fifteen, don't

530
00:27:07,240 --> 00:27:09,199
Speaker 1: I just wanted me to keep running into space like

531
00:27:09,240 --> 00:27:11,880
Speaker 1: that's the whole point of the bet here. So let

532
00:27:11,880 --> 00:27:13,680
Speaker 1: me just give you the escalator all the way up

533
00:27:13,960 --> 00:27:15,720
Speaker 1: at BET three, six, five and things. The only book

534
00:27:15,720 --> 00:27:19,960
Speaker 1: I've seen that has escalators on longest rush twenty yards

535
00:27:20,040 --> 00:27:22,800
Speaker 1: or more plus one ninety that's five yards more for

536
00:27:22,920 --> 00:27:27,000
Speaker 1: double the price. Yes, please, thirty yards plus four twenty five.

537
00:27:27,480 --> 00:27:30,119
Speaker 1: Forty is eight to one, and fifty is sixteen to one.

538
00:27:30,760 --> 00:27:33,159
Speaker 1: We'll nibble all the way up, hopefully, just get one

539
00:27:33,160 --> 00:27:35,119
Speaker 1: of those long runs, take it to the house, or

540
00:27:35,119 --> 00:27:36,800
Speaker 1: go fifty yards, go out of bounce after that. I

541
00:27:36,800 --> 00:27:38,840
Speaker 1: don't really care what you do after fifty yards. Just

542
00:27:38,920 --> 00:27:39,560
Speaker 1: hit it for us.

543
00:27:39,600 --> 00:27:43,200
Speaker 2: Breese Hall, Yeah, he looked pretty fresh. Last week. Forty

544
00:27:43,240 --> 00:27:45,520
Speaker 2: seven percent of his rushes went for five plus yards.

545
00:27:45,560 --> 00:27:48,240
Speaker 2: That was at thirty five percent last year. He had

546
00:27:48,280 --> 00:27:50,640
Speaker 2: five tackles missed on carries, which is tied for second

547
00:27:50,680 --> 00:27:53,880
Speaker 2: most in the NFL. He seemed like he was bouncing around,

548
00:27:53,960 --> 00:27:56,760
Speaker 2: so I would assume early year, Breeese, this is a

549
00:27:56,760 --> 00:27:59,440
Speaker 2: good bet, especially if you watch that game against Baltimore.

550
00:27:59,480 --> 00:28:02,400
Speaker 2: Roof and gashed all over the place. So like it

551
00:28:03,400 --> 00:28:07,040
Speaker 2: all right, lightning round, Time to see.

552
00:28:06,800 --> 00:28:10,200
Speaker 1: The lightning round.

553
00:28:11,320 --> 00:28:13,920
Speaker 2: We're gonna be a little bit quicker here. You've got

554
00:28:14,040 --> 00:28:16,760
Speaker 2: about four bets for us, but of course with Brandon

555
00:28:16,800 --> 00:28:19,920
Speaker 2: it's like two or three bets for each. So let's

556
00:28:19,960 --> 00:28:21,840
Speaker 2: start with Hunter Henry. What are you doing there?

557
00:28:22,480 --> 00:28:25,320
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm calling this lightning round the tight end happy hour.

558
00:28:25,359 --> 00:28:27,920
Speaker 1: Get ready for some names you know very little about

559
00:28:28,040 --> 00:28:30,320
Speaker 1: because I'm the same way. But here are the props

560
00:28:30,320 --> 00:28:33,800
Speaker 1: we're getting, specially the last one, Hunter Henry over thirty

561
00:28:33,800 --> 00:28:35,600
Speaker 1: one and a half receiving yards. And then we'll get

562
00:28:35,640 --> 00:28:38,200
Speaker 1: to the escalators. Hunter Henry, he's a Patriots tight end.

563
00:28:38,200 --> 00:28:40,520
Speaker 1: He's bounced around the league a little bit. I have

564
00:28:40,560 --> 00:28:43,360
Speaker 1: no idea what's going to happen in this game Patriots Dolphins,

565
00:28:43,840 --> 00:28:46,240
Speaker 1: I don't know. I think if you want to side Patriots,

566
00:28:46,240 --> 00:28:48,560
Speaker 1: playoffs plus two thirty is maybe a better way to

567
00:28:48,600 --> 00:28:51,440
Speaker 1: play it. With their soft, soft schedule coming up, you

568
00:28:51,520 --> 00:28:53,920
Speaker 1: just get to play the abomination that is the Dolphins.

569
00:28:54,040 --> 00:28:57,800
Speaker 1: Get all win, get back on track. Watching the Patriots

570
00:28:57,840 --> 00:29:00,320
Speaker 1: back in Game one, a lot of worries I was

571
00:29:00,320 --> 00:29:02,280
Speaker 1: in on this team. It's very up and down. They

572
00:29:02,280 --> 00:29:05,160
Speaker 1: didn't play great in Week one. A thing I kept

573
00:29:05,200 --> 00:29:08,760
Speaker 1: noticing was so much more Hunter Henry than I ever

574
00:29:08,840 --> 00:29:12,360
Speaker 1: needed in my life, just over and over again, Hunter Henry.

575
00:29:12,600 --> 00:29:15,560
Speaker 1: He led the team with eight targets. He led the

576
00:29:15,600 --> 00:29:18,360
Speaker 1: team with one hundred and seventeen air yards. That was

577
00:29:18,480 --> 00:29:20,800
Speaker 1: more than any tight end in Week one by far,

578
00:29:20,960 --> 00:29:24,360
Speaker 1: like by a huge margin. Top five expected Fantasy points

579
00:29:24,400 --> 00:29:27,560
Speaker 1: for tight ends. So we know in Josh McDaniel's offense,

580
00:29:27,960 --> 00:29:30,760
Speaker 1: he's plenty of using tight ends. This is the Gronk offense.

581
00:29:30,840 --> 00:29:34,200
Speaker 1: Aaron Hernandez Hunter Henry himself had his best season as

582
00:29:34,200 --> 00:29:38,720
Speaker 1: a pro when McDaniels was running this offense previously. Miami

583
00:29:39,000 --> 00:29:42,600
Speaker 1: last season allowed thirteen tight ends to get thirty two yards.

584
00:29:42,600 --> 00:29:46,000
Speaker 1: That's all we need here, including Hunter Henry both games

585
00:29:46,280 --> 00:29:48,560
Speaker 1: hit this over thirty two and one game forty four

586
00:29:48,600 --> 00:29:51,960
Speaker 1: in one game, and last week Miami got kind of

587
00:29:51,960 --> 00:29:55,680
Speaker 1: shredded by rookie Tyler Warren at tight end nine targets,

588
00:29:55,760 --> 00:29:59,000
Speaker 1: seven catches, seventy six yards. So that got my eye,

589
00:29:59,120 --> 00:30:02,000
Speaker 1: hunter Henry. I don't even know he's called cop my eye,

590
00:30:02,080 --> 00:30:04,240
Speaker 1: just I couldn't avoid him. So here he is with

591
00:30:04,320 --> 00:30:07,080
Speaker 1: Drake May. Ten games now he's averaging over six and

592
00:30:07,080 --> 00:30:10,000
Speaker 1: a half targets a game, over eleven fantasy points a game,

593
00:30:10,040 --> 00:30:12,560
Speaker 1: both top eight. So I guess if if you're in

594
00:30:12,560 --> 00:30:14,400
Speaker 1: the wilderness at a tight end, or you're missing one

595
00:30:14,440 --> 00:30:17,240
Speaker 1: of those guys injured the stars, maybe he's the guy

596
00:30:17,720 --> 00:30:21,080
Speaker 1: in those ten games at least eight targets, seven of

597
00:30:21,120 --> 00:30:24,200
Speaker 1: ten times at least thirty eight yards eight of ten

598
00:30:24,600 --> 00:30:27,160
Speaker 1: average fifty two yards a game. I think books are

599
00:30:27,160 --> 00:30:29,400
Speaker 1: asleep at the wheel. Here at thirty one point five.

600
00:30:29,440 --> 00:30:31,840
Speaker 1: It hasn't even moved up from week one at least

601
00:30:31,840 --> 00:30:35,480
Speaker 1: four catches eight of ten games games with six, seven,

602
00:30:35,640 --> 00:30:38,960
Speaker 1: seven and eight catches. All right, So here's the escalator

603
00:30:39,720 --> 00:30:42,080
Speaker 1: over thirty one and a half receiving yards. That's at

604
00:30:42,120 --> 00:30:45,480
Speaker 1: bat rivers and then fifty plus yards plus two seventy

605
00:30:45,520 --> 00:30:47,840
Speaker 1: at bet three six five. So not going huge here,

606
00:30:48,200 --> 00:30:50,840
Speaker 1: just a little bit over thirty one to get to fifty.

607
00:30:50,920 --> 00:30:53,960
Speaker 1: That's like one more nice catch, all right, but love

608
00:30:54,040 --> 00:30:55,920
Speaker 1: the receptions here. This is a late ad for me.

609
00:30:56,440 --> 00:30:58,840
Speaker 1: Over three and a half receptions. Again, he's hit that

610
00:30:58,960 --> 00:31:01,640
Speaker 1: eight of ten games with break. May we get plus

611
00:31:01,640 --> 00:31:04,200
Speaker 1: one to thirty and then here's all the way up.

612
00:31:04,640 --> 00:31:07,440
Speaker 1: Five catches is three to one, six catches six and

613
00:31:07,480 --> 00:31:10,440
Speaker 1: a half to one, seven catches thirteen to one. I'm

614
00:31:10,480 --> 00:31:12,920
Speaker 1: mad there's nothing after that. Give me an eight catches

615
00:31:12,960 --> 00:31:15,160
Speaker 1: as well. I'll play that one too. Those are all

616
00:31:15,200 --> 00:31:17,600
Speaker 1: at bat three, six, five. I'm playing every one of

617
00:31:17,600 --> 00:31:20,680
Speaker 1: those lines all the way up. Hunter Henry Escalator season.

618
00:31:21,360 --> 00:31:23,440
Speaker 2: Yeah. I think what's smart with Henry is the SGP

619
00:31:23,560 --> 00:31:25,760
Speaker 2: as well. I don't usually recommend this, but to me,

620
00:31:25,920 --> 00:31:27,720
Speaker 2: he's a chunk guy, like he's gonna get a lot

621
00:31:27,720 --> 00:31:30,680
Speaker 2: of catches. Miami plays some zone, I believe, so it's

622
00:31:30,720 --> 00:31:32,440
Speaker 2: gonna be easier for him to kind of get into

623
00:31:32,480 --> 00:31:35,320
Speaker 2: those little spots. I think it's a great call. All right,

624
00:31:35,360 --> 00:31:38,320
Speaker 2: we're looking at another tight end here, But this one's

625
00:31:38,400 --> 00:31:41,480
Speaker 2: kind of predictable. If you knew last week's bets and

626
00:31:41,560 --> 00:31:43,760
Speaker 2: you also know Brandon, so you assume next week he's

627
00:31:43,760 --> 00:31:46,520
Speaker 2: gonna like Hawkinson. But today it's someone different. Who do

628
00:31:46,560 --> 00:31:46,840
Speaker 2: you like.

629
00:31:47,320 --> 00:31:49,480
Speaker 1: Yeah, we're gonna go with Brenton Strange. So that is

630
00:31:49,520 --> 00:31:53,520
Speaker 1: your new Jaguars tight end one. These are identical lines

631
00:31:53,560 --> 00:31:55,960
Speaker 1: two Hunter Henry over thirty one and a half yards

632
00:31:56,280 --> 00:31:58,840
Speaker 1: fifty yards are more plus two seventy literally the exact

633
00:31:58,920 --> 00:32:01,920
Speaker 1: same line, the same book. So you're right. The case

634
00:32:01,920 --> 00:32:04,080
Speaker 1: here is very much the case we made last week.

635
00:32:04,320 --> 00:32:07,000
Speaker 1: The Bengals are not good against tight ends. The case

636
00:32:07,080 --> 00:32:09,520
Speaker 1: last week was they gave up last year one hundred

637
00:32:09,560 --> 00:32:12,640
Speaker 1: and eleven catches for eleven hundred yards, ten scores fifty

638
00:32:12,680 --> 00:32:15,959
Speaker 1: five yards or more ten times the right raid, the

639
00:32:16,000 --> 00:32:19,520
Speaker 1: wrong guy. Harold Fann has stole my money. Seven catches,

640
00:32:19,560 --> 00:32:22,400
Speaker 1: sixty three yards, nine targets, and Jokus still had some

641
00:32:22,480 --> 00:32:26,760
Speaker 1: decent career catches as well. So Brent Strange, he's the guy.

642
00:32:26,840 --> 00:32:29,800
Speaker 1: He's the right guy for Jacksonville. He played almost eighty

643
00:32:29,840 --> 00:32:32,680
Speaker 1: percent of the snaps last week, way up from Denver.

644
00:32:32,800 --> 00:32:35,480
Speaker 1: Remember Evan Ingram is gone and he had a lot

645
00:32:35,520 --> 00:32:39,000
Speaker 1: of receptions in this offense. So this is the guy

646
00:32:39,040 --> 00:32:42,280
Speaker 1: for Jacksonville. Last week, Strange cut all four of his

647
00:32:42,320 --> 00:32:47,600
Speaker 1: targets fifty nine yards. He's had in his career eight games, sorry,

648
00:32:47,720 --> 00:32:50,360
Speaker 1: nine games with at least fifty percent snapway remember almost

649
00:32:50,400 --> 00:32:54,160
Speaker 1: eighty percent snaps last week. He's had fifty nine yards

650
00:32:54,240 --> 00:32:56,600
Speaker 1: or more than half of those games and four more

651
00:32:56,640 --> 00:32:59,000
Speaker 1: targets and seven of the nine games as well. So

652
00:32:59,560 --> 00:33:03,080
Speaker 1: not a huge line here, but this is a good

653
00:33:03,080 --> 00:33:06,120
Speaker 1: game to get some action in total around fifty right now.

654
00:33:06,160 --> 00:33:07,959
Speaker 1: Both defense is pretty bad. I think it'd be one

655
00:33:07,960 --> 00:33:10,440
Speaker 1: of the more entertaining, higher scoring games of the week.

656
00:33:10,800 --> 00:33:13,880
Speaker 1: I started actually on at tend here I wanted, how

657
00:33:13,920 --> 00:33:16,520
Speaker 1: can I run on Cincinnati. I don't see a lot

658
00:33:16,560 --> 00:33:18,080
Speaker 1: of value. I think the books kind of got there

659
00:33:18,120 --> 00:33:20,880
Speaker 1: first that way, and I think Toot and the rookie

660
00:33:21,000 --> 00:33:22,880
Speaker 1: might actually start kind of sneaking up on at ten.

661
00:33:22,960 --> 00:33:25,479
Speaker 1: So I kind of pivoted here, thought I was running,

662
00:33:25,760 --> 00:33:28,800
Speaker 1: got back to the tight ends. So Brenton's Strange over

663
00:33:28,840 --> 00:33:30,959
Speaker 1: thirty one and a half and then fifty or more

664
00:33:31,000 --> 00:33:34,160
Speaker 1: at plus two seventy, and then since they're the same

665
00:33:34,240 --> 00:33:36,800
Speaker 1: odds our producer David helped me out with this one,

666
00:33:37,080 --> 00:33:39,720
Speaker 1: how about the no name tight end parley so exact

667
00:33:39,800 --> 00:33:43,960
Speaker 1: same lines Hunter Henry and Brenton Strange both over thirty

668
00:33:43,960 --> 00:33:46,560
Speaker 1: one and a half. Is plus two sixty four and

669
00:33:46,600 --> 00:33:50,880
Speaker 1: then the double escalator both fifty is plus ten seventy

670
00:33:50,960 --> 00:33:53,320
Speaker 1: again quick slip for both of those. Just a little nibble.

671
00:33:53,360 --> 00:33:55,479
Speaker 1: These are like a tenth of the unit plays. Have

672
00:33:55,520 --> 00:33:58,400
Speaker 1: a little fun no name tight ends. We get that

673
00:33:58,480 --> 00:34:00,880
Speaker 1: stupid tight end holiday in the year that we got

674
00:34:00,920 --> 00:34:02,880
Speaker 1: to do this, so let's make our own tight end holiday.

675
00:34:03,440 --> 00:34:05,240
Speaker 2: And just to be glaar off with my hawkets and joke,

676
00:34:05,400 --> 00:34:07,560
Speaker 2: the Bengals play the Vikings next week, right, so that

677
00:34:07,800 --> 00:34:09,680
Speaker 2: will be a kind of what I was Yeah, that's

678
00:34:09,680 --> 00:34:12,279
Speaker 2: what I was alluding to. It's not only this year though,

679
00:34:12,320 --> 00:34:15,800
Speaker 2: with the Bengals twenty fifth versus tight ends last year, Dboa,

680
00:34:15,960 --> 00:34:20,440
Speaker 2: so this is a defensive thing with them. So we'll

681
00:34:20,440 --> 00:34:22,920
Speaker 2: see if it works this week. All right, You're just

682
00:34:22,960 --> 00:34:25,280
Speaker 2: gonna have to take it from here. I don't think.

683
00:34:25,719 --> 00:34:29,960
Speaker 2: I mean, our listeners are very very smart betters, gamblers

684
00:34:29,960 --> 00:34:32,560
Speaker 2: and people, but I'm not necessarily sure they know who

685
00:34:32,560 --> 00:34:34,440
Speaker 2: this guy is. So given me.

686
00:34:35,560 --> 00:34:38,759
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm taking a bomb here from downtown. Raise your hand.

687
00:34:38,760 --> 00:34:42,000
Speaker 1: If you've ever heard of Tip Ryman, that's who we're betting.

688
00:34:42,080 --> 00:34:47,120
Speaker 1: Tip Ryman Cardinals tight end anytime touchdown eleven to one

689
00:34:47,200 --> 00:34:49,239
Speaker 1: at bat three, six five. I guess I'm calling my

690
00:34:49,280 --> 00:34:52,719
Speaker 1: shot here. Tip Ryman is your Cardinals blocking tight end.

691
00:34:52,800 --> 00:34:56,200
Speaker 1: So we know obviously Trey McBride is the guy there,

692
00:34:56,360 --> 00:34:58,400
Speaker 1: but the Cardinals carry four tight ends. They want to

693
00:34:58,400 --> 00:35:01,880
Speaker 1: play a lot of multiple tight end packages. Tip Ryman

694
00:35:01,960 --> 00:35:04,400
Speaker 1: played over half the snaps in Week one. I think

695
00:35:04,480 --> 00:35:08,600
Speaker 1: we're sneakily getting some little advantage here. Elijah Higgins is

696
00:35:08,600 --> 00:35:11,560
Speaker 1: the presumed second tight end there. He only ran seven

697
00:35:11,680 --> 00:35:14,640
Speaker 1: routes last week. Tip Ryman ran fourteen got to catch

698
00:35:14,680 --> 00:35:16,480
Speaker 1: as well, so he's the blocking tight end. We think

699
00:35:16,480 --> 00:35:20,440
Speaker 1: they're gonna run. But here's why this COMMI we like

700
00:35:20,520 --> 00:35:23,080
Speaker 1: the Cardinals in this game. We like points. Jonathan Gannon

701
00:35:23,160 --> 00:35:26,200
Speaker 1: homeovers have been a thing. And back to the Panthers,

702
00:35:26,360 --> 00:35:28,839
Speaker 1: we like their running backs against them. We like tight

703
00:35:28,960 --> 00:35:32,040
Speaker 1: ends too. They allowed eleven touchdowns to tight ends. The

704
00:35:32,080 --> 00:35:35,080
Speaker 1: one stat the Bengals din corner against tight ends last year.

705
00:35:35,600 --> 00:35:37,520
Speaker 1: It's not just any tight ends. Let me reach you

706
00:35:37,560 --> 00:35:39,799
Speaker 1: the names of some of the guys that scored a

707
00:35:39,840 --> 00:35:43,680
Speaker 1: touchdown against Carolina last year. Don't expect Brock Bowers or

708
00:35:43,719 --> 00:35:48,800
Speaker 1: Travis Kelcey. Spoiler alert, here's the names Foster Moreau, Ben Sinna,

709
00:35:49,440 --> 00:35:53,960
Speaker 1: Nate Adkins, Foster Moreau again, Noah Gray twice in the

710
00:35:54,000 --> 00:35:59,520
Speaker 1: game with Travis Kelce, Grant Calcaterra, Payne Durham. Who are

711
00:35:59,600 --> 00:36:03,200
Speaker 1: these dudes? These are nobody, These are not starting tight ends.

712
00:36:03,239 --> 00:36:06,719
Speaker 1: And then last week, Week one, some dude Hunter Long

713
00:36:06,840 --> 00:36:09,880
Speaker 1: scores a touchdown, first touchdown in his five year career.

714
00:36:10,120 --> 00:36:13,400
Speaker 1: Guess who? Hunter Long is the blocking tight end for Jacksonville.

715
00:36:13,680 --> 00:36:16,560
Speaker 1: So that's it. That's all I know about tip Ryman.

716
00:36:16,800 --> 00:36:20,239
Speaker 1: He's the blocking tight end. Elijah Higgins is like six

717
00:36:20,280 --> 00:36:23,200
Speaker 1: to seven to one for touchdowns. I think we're getting

718
00:36:23,200 --> 00:36:25,600
Speaker 1: some value. I think those should be flipped. Tip Ryman

719
00:36:25,760 --> 00:36:29,040
Speaker 1: is the guy we know. McBride can't score touchdowns. He

720
00:36:29,080 --> 00:36:31,479
Speaker 1: took until like the last week of the season last year.

721
00:36:31,760 --> 00:36:33,920
Speaker 1: So let him do all the dirty work down the field,

722
00:36:34,360 --> 00:36:37,120
Speaker 1: run a little play action, and in case James count

723
00:36:37,280 --> 00:36:40,080
Speaker 1: doesn't get his touchdown for us, maybe tip Ryman will

724
00:36:40,120 --> 00:36:41,480
Speaker 1: get it instead. Eleven to one.

725
00:36:42,160 --> 00:36:44,799
Speaker 2: Yeah, this is a mixture between Chris Raybon and Jill

726
00:36:44,880 --> 00:36:47,520
Speaker 2: goot in terms of a bet. Right now, you're just

727
00:36:47,719 --> 00:36:50,799
Speaker 2: you know, a little child of that marriage right there.

728
00:36:51,320 --> 00:36:55,239
Speaker 2: To me, this makes sense only because the snaps were

729
00:36:55,320 --> 00:36:58,840
Speaker 2: up probably a little unexpected like you would discussed, and

730
00:36:59,200 --> 00:37:02,520
Speaker 2: there's blowouts, like there is a chance he gets into

731
00:37:02,520 --> 00:37:05,040
Speaker 2: this game after McBride's going for one hundred and twenty

732
00:37:05,120 --> 00:37:07,480
Speaker 2: yards and a touchdown or two and they give it

733
00:37:07,480 --> 00:37:10,440
Speaker 2: to somebody else. So that is always in play. All right,

734
00:37:10,680 --> 00:37:12,799
Speaker 2: you have your last bet here before we get to

735
00:37:12,840 --> 00:37:15,480
Speaker 2: your look ahead. But you're looking at some futures. So

736
00:37:15,520 --> 00:37:16,879
Speaker 2: where are you going? Yeah?

737
00:37:16,920 --> 00:37:19,680
Speaker 1: So I got an article up my week one overreactions.

738
00:37:19,680 --> 00:37:21,120
Speaker 1: One of my favorite articles of the year is an

739
00:37:21,160 --> 00:37:23,759
Speaker 1: overreaction for all thirty two teams. Okay, here's what we

740
00:37:23,800 --> 00:37:25,640
Speaker 1: saw on Sunday. How big of a deal is it?

741
00:37:25,800 --> 00:37:28,440
Speaker 1: Is it real or not? And a lot of the

742
00:37:28,560 --> 00:37:30,640
Speaker 1: article a big chunk in there. The longest I talk

743
00:37:30,640 --> 00:37:33,520
Speaker 1: about a team is the Baltimore Ravens. So I just

744
00:37:33,560 --> 00:37:37,200
Speaker 1: had to bring you Ravens' futures here. Ravens division odds

745
00:37:37,239 --> 00:37:40,520
Speaker 1: minus one thirty five at FanDuel and Ravens most wins

746
00:37:40,640 --> 00:37:43,960
Speaker 1: nine to one at DraftKings. I think Sunday should make

747
00:37:44,040 --> 00:37:48,120
Speaker 1: us actually more confident in Baltimore, not less confident. They

748
00:37:48,160 --> 00:37:52,240
Speaker 1: faced probably the toughest test possible the Bills are number

749
00:37:52,239 --> 00:37:54,839
Speaker 1: two in my power ratings. You're on the road in

750
00:37:54,920 --> 00:37:58,799
Speaker 1: prime time at the best not Ravens team possible. That's

751
00:37:58,840 --> 00:38:01,120
Speaker 1: the toughest test you're can have, and they ace the

752
00:38:01,200 --> 00:38:04,920
Speaker 1: test for fifty five minutes and then sports happen. So, okay,

753
00:38:04,960 --> 00:38:07,319
Speaker 1: what do we do with that? Well? I think those

754
00:38:07,360 --> 00:38:11,080
Speaker 1: repeated collapses are a pattern. The pattern is you keep

755
00:38:11,120 --> 00:38:14,560
Speaker 1: being way ahead of really good competition enough times to

756
00:38:14,640 --> 00:38:17,399
Speaker 1: have chances to sometimes lose those games, but often win

757
00:38:17,480 --> 00:38:19,840
Speaker 1: those games. Like that, when we say you're ninety percent

758
00:38:19,880 --> 00:38:22,200
Speaker 1: to win a game, you lose that game one out

759
00:38:22,239 --> 00:38:24,399
Speaker 1: of ten times. And they are getting more of those

760
00:38:24,440 --> 00:38:27,280
Speaker 1: games than everyone else. I think Sunday prove the Ravens

761
00:38:27,360 --> 00:38:29,640
Speaker 1: are the best team in football by far. I have

762
00:38:29,719 --> 00:38:32,480
Speaker 1: the Ravens as far ahead of number two Buffalo as

763
00:38:32,480 --> 00:38:35,120
Speaker 1: I have the Bills ahead of the Steelers and Seahawks.

764
00:38:35,200 --> 00:38:37,239
Speaker 1: That's the sort of gap for me that I'm looking at.

765
00:38:37,560 --> 00:38:40,080
Speaker 1: And if you look, I think books are admitting that

766
00:38:40,560 --> 00:38:42,759
Speaker 1: they barely even budged on the Super Bowl odds for

767
00:38:42,760 --> 00:38:46,359
Speaker 1: the Ravens. At FTN Baltimore's Super Bowl odds went up

768
00:38:46,520 --> 00:38:49,120
Speaker 1: after losing. They're zero to one. They have a big

769
00:38:49,160 --> 00:38:52,000
Speaker 1: hole in the one seed. Now their odds went up.

770
00:38:52,120 --> 00:38:55,040
Speaker 1: That's crazy, that's how good that they were. They're still

771
00:38:55,080 --> 00:38:58,960
Speaker 1: projected at twelve point one wins at FTN, that second

772
00:38:59,040 --> 00:39:01,160
Speaker 1: best in the NFL, behind and only Buffalo, but by

773
00:39:01,239 --> 00:39:03,600
Speaker 1: zero point three. So I think this is a great

774
00:39:03,640 --> 00:39:08,080
Speaker 1: time to with the Browns game. Forget the minus twelve

775
00:39:08,160 --> 00:39:10,200
Speaker 1: and a half, eleven and a half whatever, I don't

776
00:39:10,200 --> 00:39:12,600
Speaker 1: really know about that. This is your chance to buy

777
00:39:12,640 --> 00:39:15,759
Speaker 1: a low. This is getting on the Ravens. FTN has

778
00:39:15,800 --> 00:39:17,799
Speaker 1: them seventy five percent for the division. That would be

779
00:39:17,840 --> 00:39:20,919
Speaker 1: minus three hundred. We're getting minus one thirty five. I'll

780
00:39:21,080 --> 00:39:23,479
Speaker 1: love that spot. And then you can bet one seed

781
00:39:23,480 --> 00:39:26,439
Speaker 1: plus five fifty. But I think I like most wins better.

782
00:39:26,480 --> 00:39:29,080
Speaker 1: It's nine to one and we can split. We can

783
00:39:29,160 --> 00:39:32,880
Speaker 1: like actually tie for most wins with Buffalo and you

784
00:39:32,960 --> 00:39:35,239
Speaker 1: lose the one seed that way, but we could still

785
00:39:35,280 --> 00:39:37,960
Speaker 1: get out with the win even though Buffalo tied there.

786
00:39:38,040 --> 00:39:40,400
Speaker 1: So it's better. Odds gives us a little bit more protection.

787
00:39:41,080 --> 00:39:43,839
Speaker 1: So I like the Ravens still, we talked about them.

788
00:39:43,840 --> 00:39:45,960
Speaker 1: I know Sunday we won't do futures too off and

789
00:39:46,000 --> 00:39:49,040
Speaker 1: on here, but a lot of futures in their one

790
00:39:49,120 --> 00:39:52,319
Speaker 1: other mention we will get to this week. We got

791
00:39:52,320 --> 00:39:54,480
Speaker 1: a Monday night doubleheader. I have angles on both of

792
00:39:54,480 --> 00:39:57,440
Speaker 1: those games. We'll get there on Sunday Night Pod. I

793
00:39:57,520 --> 00:40:00,520
Speaker 1: mentioned the article the Raiders I think might be the

794
00:40:00,560 --> 00:40:03,200
Speaker 1: best futures investment overall right now, feeling for a long

795
00:40:03,239 --> 00:40:07,160
Speaker 1: shot afcus they're twelve to one right now. If you

796
00:40:07,600 --> 00:40:11,280
Speaker 1: depending on how you feel about Chiefs, Eagles and Broncos

797
00:40:11,280 --> 00:40:15,319
Speaker 1: Cults both losable. If you think those teams lose and

798
00:40:15,360 --> 00:40:17,239
Speaker 1: you want the Raiders ticket, you gotta get it now,

799
00:40:17,400 --> 00:40:19,560
Speaker 1: because if those teams lose, then you're gonna get a

800
00:40:19,560 --> 00:40:21,680
Speaker 1: worse odds. If you think the Chiefs and Broncos win

801
00:40:21,760 --> 00:40:24,600
Speaker 1: those games, then we'll get even better number. But I

802
00:40:24,600 --> 00:40:27,680
Speaker 1: think Raiders long shot. They look pretty good in Week one.

803
00:40:27,920 --> 00:40:30,279
Speaker 1: Check the article for a few other futures and week

804
00:40:30,320 --> 00:40:31,160
Speaker 1: one angles there.

805
00:40:32,000 --> 00:40:34,719
Speaker 2: I was most interested in your Baltimore take, so I

806
00:40:34,880 --> 00:40:37,440
Speaker 2: just happened to look this up. I counted four teams

807
00:40:37,520 --> 00:40:40,360
Speaker 2: last decade who've had a win total of nine plus

808
00:40:40,520 --> 00:40:43,400
Speaker 2: who blew a ten point lead in Week one still

809
00:40:43,440 --> 00:40:46,560
Speaker 2: and they still won ten plus games. It's four of ten,

810
00:40:46,760 --> 00:40:49,560
Speaker 2: so actually not as bad as I thought. So it

811
00:40:49,640 --> 00:40:53,719
Speaker 2: is definitely possible that this loss uh in a game

812
00:40:53,800 --> 00:40:57,200
Speaker 2: where we thought they played fantastic just blew it at

813
00:40:57,200 --> 00:41:00,240
Speaker 2: the end, which maybe typical hardbon Maybe just one off

814
00:41:01,160 --> 00:41:03,920
Speaker 2: seems like decent value, especially at that number, especially nine

815
00:41:03,960 --> 00:41:06,600
Speaker 2: to one when we talk about most wins. All right,

816
00:41:06,680 --> 00:41:10,480
Speaker 2: your look ahead here, you've got two games for week three?

817
00:41:10,680 --> 00:41:11,239
Speaker 2: What are you doing?

818
00:41:13,000 --> 00:41:13,760
Speaker 1: Let's look ahead?

819
00:41:14,000 --> 00:41:16,040
Speaker 2: Just give it a shot. How about next week?

820
00:41:16,480 --> 00:41:23,880
Speaker 1: I got Mama satout man sat. Yeah. I normally just

821
00:41:23,920 --> 00:41:26,920
Speaker 1: do one, but I could not choose between these two. Particularly.

822
00:41:26,920 --> 00:41:28,680
Speaker 1: I want to talk about the value of the number

823
00:41:28,760 --> 00:41:31,719
Speaker 1: on these more even than the angle. So first one,

824
00:41:32,239 --> 00:41:35,080
Speaker 1: Steelers at the Patriots next week. So week three we're

825
00:41:35,080 --> 00:41:36,799
Speaker 1: looking at trying to get the better line that we

826
00:41:36,800 --> 00:41:40,000
Speaker 1: won't get later. Give me under forty three at bet

827
00:41:40,000 --> 00:41:43,879
Speaker 1: three six five. Look, it's Tomlin versus of Rabel? Which

828
00:41:43,920 --> 00:41:45,640
Speaker 1: direction do you think the total is going to go?

829
00:41:45,840 --> 00:41:48,000
Speaker 1: Like anybody that sees that games and be like, oh

830
00:41:48,040 --> 00:41:50,000
Speaker 1: Tom win of Rabel take the under, like that's just

831
00:41:50,080 --> 00:41:52,920
Speaker 1: going to happen. Patriots were in my top ten defense

832
00:41:52,960 --> 00:41:55,840
Speaker 1: is heading the season, Steelers top two. Not great in

833
00:41:55,880 --> 00:41:58,000
Speaker 1: week one, I will admit it. But one week of

834
00:41:58,080 --> 00:42:00,200
Speaker 1: data so far, I'm not willing to like let those

835
00:42:00,200 --> 00:42:02,880
Speaker 1: priors completely go yet. And then it's the trends that

836
00:42:02,920 --> 00:42:06,239
Speaker 1: we know already. Mike Tomlin first seven games total between

837
00:42:06,320 --> 00:42:10,040
Speaker 1: forty and forty nine under seventy one percent. Mike Tomlin

838
00:42:10,080 --> 00:42:12,960
Speaker 1: wrote under his first half the season sixty four percent,

839
00:42:13,520 --> 00:42:15,879
Speaker 1: and Mike Rabel he likes under his two totals below

840
00:42:15,960 --> 00:42:19,640
Speaker 1: forty four unders fifty eight percent. So I see a

841
00:42:19,719 --> 00:42:22,640
Speaker 1: forty three at BET three six five or at Caesars,

842
00:42:22,920 --> 00:42:25,399
Speaker 1: I see a forty two and a half. Vandal has

843
00:42:25,400 --> 00:42:27,799
Speaker 1: this forty and a half. That's the direction I think

844
00:42:27,840 --> 00:42:30,359
Speaker 1: this is going to go. And forty to forty four,

845
00:42:30,400 --> 00:42:32,839
Speaker 1: every one of those numbers is a key number. So

846
00:42:33,120 --> 00:42:35,359
Speaker 1: this is just one to grab now. We already grab

847
00:42:35,400 --> 00:42:38,680
Speaker 1: Steelers under this week, So if they do bounce back defensively,

848
00:42:38,719 --> 00:42:40,800
Speaker 1: I think it starts to move that direction as well.

849
00:42:41,200 --> 00:42:44,279
Speaker 1: Steelers Patriots under forty three.

850
00:42:44,280 --> 00:42:46,439
Speaker 2: You're probably just getting ahead of it on that line.

851
00:42:46,640 --> 00:42:50,000
Speaker 2: Seattle Pittsburgh down four points. If you think you know

852
00:42:50,040 --> 00:42:52,200
Speaker 2: what's gonna happen, this one's just gonna take the same

853
00:42:53,000 --> 00:42:55,440
Speaker 2: same fall. So I like it all right, what's your

854
00:42:55,440 --> 00:42:55,959
Speaker 2: second one.

855
00:42:56,120 --> 00:42:57,960
Speaker 1: Yeah. Really, the same sort of thing here is. This

856
00:42:58,040 --> 00:43:00,120
Speaker 1: is just trying to get ahead of lines that I

857
00:43:00,160 --> 00:43:03,000
Speaker 1: think are going to clearly only move one direction. Sunday

858
00:43:03,080 --> 00:43:05,400
Speaker 1: night next week, give me the Chiefs minus five and

859
00:43:05,440 --> 00:43:07,880
Speaker 1: a half at the Giants, so that one only I'm

860
00:43:07,920 --> 00:43:10,640
Speaker 1: seeing at Fandel everywhere else they see six or longer.

861
00:43:11,000 --> 00:43:12,959
Speaker 1: And that's why we're doing it, because this is about

862
00:43:12,960 --> 00:43:15,680
Speaker 1: the value of five and a half. Six has become

863
00:43:16,160 --> 00:43:18,600
Speaker 1: I think probably the third key number. We know three,

864
00:43:18,680 --> 00:43:20,840
Speaker 1: we know seven, but six and eight are can I

865
00:43:20,840 --> 00:43:23,040
Speaker 1: get in the mix now with the two point conversions

866
00:43:23,040 --> 00:43:25,680
Speaker 1: and extra field goals and everything, five and a half

867
00:43:25,719 --> 00:43:29,239
Speaker 1: is valuable because five and a half, five, four, four

868
00:43:29,239 --> 00:43:30,440
Speaker 1: and a half, three and a half, those are kind

869
00:43:30,440 --> 00:43:32,960
Speaker 1: of all the same little area. There's not a lot

870
00:43:33,000 --> 00:43:35,920
Speaker 1: of scores that fall into that mix usually, So if

871
00:43:35,920 --> 00:43:38,359
Speaker 1: things kind of go sideways a little bit, we don't

872
00:43:38,400 --> 00:43:40,640
Speaker 1: have a lot of risk of this dropping too far.

873
00:43:40,719 --> 00:43:43,720
Speaker 1: We're not hitting three with the Giants against the Chiefs.

874
00:43:43,760 --> 00:43:46,359
Speaker 1: Come on, we're not hitting three, but we could hit

875
00:43:46,400 --> 00:43:48,840
Speaker 1: six very easily. It's already there at most books. We

876
00:43:48,880 --> 00:43:51,560
Speaker 1: could get past it. We get to seven very easily,

877
00:43:51,560 --> 00:43:54,360
Speaker 1: get past seven. What if the Chiefs beat the Eagles

878
00:43:54,360 --> 00:43:57,120
Speaker 1: this week, everyone gets their confidence back. This is going

879
00:43:57,160 --> 00:43:59,080
Speaker 1: to hit seven or past it, and then you lose

880
00:43:59,120 --> 00:44:02,319
Speaker 1: a lot of value past the key numbers. Or what

881
00:44:02,400 --> 00:44:04,879
Speaker 1: if the Chiefs lose. Now they're owing two and it's

882
00:44:04,960 --> 00:44:07,480
Speaker 1: kitchen sink. This is like everybody wants to bet the

883
00:44:07,520 --> 00:44:09,960
Speaker 1: chief The Chiefs are gonna start owing three against the Giants.

884
00:44:10,000 --> 00:44:13,640
Speaker 1: Come on, like either way, everyone wants a Chiefs ticket here,

885
00:44:13,719 --> 00:44:16,480
Speaker 1: so we're gonna grab it before everyone else does. And

886
00:44:16,840 --> 00:44:19,960
Speaker 1: we might even get Jackson Dark making us debut start.

887
00:44:20,040 --> 00:44:22,319
Speaker 1: And so we're gonna like that against Steve Spagnolo and

888
00:44:22,360 --> 00:44:25,319
Speaker 1: the Blitz. Yes, please, especially if Andrew Thomas is out.

889
00:44:25,360 --> 00:44:27,680
Speaker 1: So this really is not even a matchup thing I

890
00:44:27,680 --> 00:44:30,080
Speaker 1: need to tell you about Chiefs versus Giants. This is

891
00:44:30,080 --> 00:44:31,839
Speaker 1: the number five and a half that I don't think

892
00:44:31,880 --> 00:44:34,040
Speaker 1: will be there later. I think it's gonna move past

893
00:44:34,080 --> 00:44:36,680
Speaker 1: some key numbers. So grab it apt fandle if you can.

894
00:44:37,040 --> 00:44:38,440
Speaker 1: If it gets to six or later, I think you

895
00:44:38,480 --> 00:44:40,400
Speaker 1: just wait and then we'll reevalue it next week.

896
00:44:40,840 --> 00:44:43,600
Speaker 2: Yeah, with look aheads, I always say to myself, all right,

897
00:44:43,600 --> 00:44:45,799
Speaker 2: if this happens or if that happens, like what do

898
00:44:45,880 --> 00:44:48,320
Speaker 2: I think the market's gonna do. I think the market's

899
00:44:48,320 --> 00:44:50,879
Speaker 2: gonna assume Kansas City if they win or lose, because

900
00:44:50,920 --> 00:44:52,640
Speaker 2: the win they look better. The loss, Oh my god,

901
00:44:52,640 --> 00:44:55,440
Speaker 2: they can't start owing three. Like you said exactly, I

902
00:44:55,440 --> 00:44:58,920
Speaker 2: think it kind of hits in both ways. I'll also

903
00:44:58,920 --> 00:45:00,840
Speaker 2: say this, and it's just my opportunity to say this,

904
00:45:00,920 --> 00:45:04,600
Speaker 2: stat Giants and Jets night games. They've played thirty eight

905
00:45:04,640 --> 00:45:08,319
Speaker 2: since twenty nineteen five, and thirty three feels made up.

906
00:45:08,320 --> 00:45:11,480
Speaker 2: But that's exactly what you're walking into here. All right.

907
00:45:11,600 --> 00:45:13,600
Speaker 2: That is week two, and I'll look ahead for week

908
00:45:13,640 --> 00:45:16,640
Speaker 2: three on the Action Euric podcast for our Week two

909
00:45:16,640 --> 00:45:20,520
Speaker 2: Best Bets episode, don't forget to download the free award

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Speaker 2: winning action eric app to see more from all of

911
00:45:23,160 --> 00:45:27,120
Speaker 2: our contributors. And if you want instant notifications when action

912
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Speaker 2: experts track their bets, just go to actioneeric dot com

913
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915
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916
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917
00:45:44,200 --> 00:45:46,839
Speaker 2: you see a bet from any of your favorite action

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924
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926
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Speaker 2: to actionowork dot com slash b e t now bet now.

928
00:46:19,040 --> 00:46:22,560
Speaker 2: We will be back Sunday night for our NFL weekly

929
00:46:22,840 --> 00:46:26,720
Speaker 2: recap show that'll be live on Action to YouTube page

930
00:46:26,760 --> 00:46:31,120
Speaker 2: shortly after Sunday Night football. Thank you for listening, Enjoy

931
00:46:31,160 --> 00:46:34,120
Speaker 2: the slate. Good luck with all your bets in week two,

932
00:46:34,880 --> 00:46:54,839
Speaker 2: have one and enjoy. Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.

933
00:46:55,239 --> 00:46:58,080
Speaker 2: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,

934
00:46:58,360 --> 00:47:01,840
Speaker 2: help is available twenty four at one eight hundred Gambler