1 00:00:00,840 --> 00:00:04,000 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney alongside 2 00:00:04,040 --> 00:00:06,960 Speaker 1: my co host Matt Miller. Every business day we bring 3 00:00:07,000 --> 00:00:11,560 Speaker 1: you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, along 4 00:00:11,560 --> 00:00:13,640 Speaker 1: with essential market moving news. 5 00:00:14,160 --> 00:00:17,279 Speaker 2: I'm the Bloomberg Markets podcast called Apple Podcasts or wherever 6 00:00:17,400 --> 00:00:21,119 Speaker 2: you listen to podcasts, and at Bloomberg dot com slash podcast. 7 00:00:21,280 --> 00:00:21,680 Speaker 3: I want to. 8 00:00:21,640 --> 00:00:24,720 Speaker 4: Quickly move over to our next guest. Whoever better than 9 00:00:24,760 --> 00:00:27,160 Speaker 4: to talk about the economy. We have Steve Matthews' economy 10 00:00:27,160 --> 00:00:29,600 Speaker 4: reporter at Bloomberg News, who's going to join us to 11 00:00:29,600 --> 00:00:31,800 Speaker 4: talk about the latest when it comes to the Federal Reserve. 12 00:00:31,840 --> 00:00:34,960 Speaker 4: Also James Bullard set to leave the Central Bank. But 13 00:00:35,080 --> 00:00:37,040 Speaker 4: first I want to get your thoughts just overall on 14 00:00:37,120 --> 00:00:41,040 Speaker 4: the economy, Steve, because we did just get these big banks, 15 00:00:41,120 --> 00:00:44,120 Speaker 4: especially when you're thinking about JP Morgan Wills Fargo City 16 00:00:44,560 --> 00:00:47,800 Speaker 4: reporting about not just of course they're earnings more backward looking. 17 00:00:47,880 --> 00:00:50,200 Speaker 4: This came over a tumultuous time when you think about 18 00:00:50,280 --> 00:00:53,800 Speaker 4: the regional banks and the stresses that the banking industry 19 00:00:53,880 --> 00:00:56,640 Speaker 4: went over, especially in the spring. What do you think 20 00:00:56,680 --> 00:01:00,240 Speaker 4: this tells us about the direction and trajectory of thecon mean, 21 00:01:00,240 --> 00:01:02,240 Speaker 4: when you see these results. 22 00:01:01,880 --> 00:01:05,000 Speaker 2: Yeah, I think that's exactly right. I mean, the FED 23 00:01:05,040 --> 00:01:07,959 Speaker 2: has been looking at the economic data, but they've also 24 00:01:08,000 --> 00:01:11,400 Speaker 2: been watching very carefully what's happening with the banking sector. 25 00:01:12,160 --> 00:01:14,760 Speaker 2: And the reports we've gotten so far are kind of 26 00:01:14,760 --> 00:01:17,840 Speaker 2: a green light for more interest rate hikes. I mean, 27 00:01:17,920 --> 00:01:21,040 Speaker 2: the banks seem to be doing fine. You know, there 28 00:01:21,120 --> 00:01:25,360 Speaker 2: was a worry when we had three moderately big failures 29 00:01:25,400 --> 00:01:28,440 Speaker 2: in March that okay, this could kind of lead to 30 00:01:28,880 --> 00:01:32,560 Speaker 2: you know, another series of bank failures and there could 31 00:01:32,600 --> 00:01:36,920 Speaker 2: be some volatility and who knows where it would end up. 32 00:01:37,360 --> 00:01:41,640 Speaker 2: And basically, right now, things seem pretty calm and the 33 00:01:42,040 --> 00:01:45,920 Speaker 2: big banks are doing, you know, better than expected them. 34 00:01:45,920 --> 00:01:49,800 Speaker 2: And look at JP Morgan and some of the others. 35 00:01:50,560 --> 00:01:54,440 Speaker 2: You know, the one caveat there is the FED is 36 00:01:54,520 --> 00:01:57,880 Speaker 2: really probably more focused on the regional banks and a 37 00:01:57,880 --> 00:02:00,360 Speaker 2: lot of the regional banks and to see how how 38 00:02:00,400 --> 00:02:03,400 Speaker 2: they are doing, and a lot of those won't report 39 00:02:03,520 --> 00:02:06,160 Speaker 2: until you know, next week or even the week after. 40 00:02:06,800 --> 00:02:09,880 Speaker 5: Did we get any indicators so far from some of 41 00:02:09,919 --> 00:02:14,360 Speaker 5: these major banks about how the regional banks might perform, 42 00:02:14,440 --> 00:02:16,880 Speaker 5: because remember, you know, at that moment of crisis, we 43 00:02:16,880 --> 00:02:19,840 Speaker 5: saw a lot of deposits flood to these major folks, 44 00:02:20,639 --> 00:02:23,200 Speaker 5: whereas some of the more regional players were left on 45 00:02:23,280 --> 00:02:26,840 Speaker 5: the sidelines. Or are we really waiting until next week 46 00:02:26,960 --> 00:02:28,800 Speaker 5: for the kit for the verdict on this? 47 00:02:29,360 --> 00:02:31,799 Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean I think in the reality is we're 48 00:02:31,800 --> 00:02:36,000 Speaker 2: probably waiting for next week. But these banks have done well. 49 00:02:36,240 --> 00:02:41,400 Speaker 2: You know, their interest margins are doing well, you know, 50 00:02:41,400 --> 00:02:44,519 Speaker 2: their credit worthiness is fine. You know, there's been a 51 00:02:44,560 --> 00:02:48,639 Speaker 2: lot of worry about commercial real estate. That doesn't seem 52 00:02:48,680 --> 00:02:52,320 Speaker 2: to be a huge issue. I mean, it's a huge 53 00:02:52,320 --> 00:02:55,040 Speaker 2: issue going ahead because you have all of these office 54 00:02:55,080 --> 00:03:00,160 Speaker 2: buildings that are damaged by work from home, but in 55 00:03:00,200 --> 00:03:06,239 Speaker 2: this quarter it's not a particular issue. So the caveat 56 00:03:06,280 --> 00:03:10,320 Speaker 2: again is that the regional banks have a lot more 57 00:03:10,360 --> 00:03:14,200 Speaker 2: exposure to commercial real estate than you know, for example, 58 00:03:14,639 --> 00:03:16,360 Speaker 2: JP Morgan, Hey. 59 00:03:16,160 --> 00:03:19,440 Speaker 4: Steve something that struck me looking at cities results. So 60 00:03:19,560 --> 00:03:22,200 Speaker 4: it did get a boost when it comes to credit cards, 61 00:03:22,240 --> 00:03:25,160 Speaker 4: but part of that was actually due to borrowers that 62 00:03:25,200 --> 00:03:28,360 Speaker 4: were starting to struggle. You cover the economy so closely. 63 00:03:28,440 --> 00:03:30,560 Speaker 4: What do you think this tells us about consumer spending 64 00:03:30,639 --> 00:03:31,000 Speaker 4: right now? 65 00:03:31,880 --> 00:03:35,120 Speaker 2: Well, that's interesting and we, as you pointed out, earlier. 66 00:03:35,120 --> 00:03:40,800 Speaker 2: We also just got the Michigan Consumer Index Cinnament index 67 00:03:40,960 --> 00:03:46,120 Speaker 2: and cinema of consumers has been fairly dire the last 68 00:03:46,560 --> 00:03:50,440 Speaker 2: couple of years, and we saw a huge pickup in 69 00:03:51,040 --> 00:03:54,360 Speaker 2: cineament both for you know, how consumers are looking at 70 00:03:54,640 --> 00:03:59,360 Speaker 2: current conditions, how they're looking for expectations much higher than 71 00:03:59,360 --> 00:04:04,800 Speaker 2: anyone epected, and you know that kind of suggests that 72 00:04:05,240 --> 00:04:09,960 Speaker 2: consumer attitudes are are getting a little bit better. I mean, 73 00:04:09,960 --> 00:04:15,880 Speaker 2: if this, if this sticks, you know, the thing that's 74 00:04:15,960 --> 00:04:20,720 Speaker 2: driving this to a certain extent is inflation is coming down, 75 00:04:21,480 --> 00:04:25,440 Speaker 2: so you're having disinflation. We have three percent inflation. At 76 00:04:25,440 --> 00:04:31,400 Speaker 2: the same time, people's pay has been boosted recently because 77 00:04:31,480 --> 00:04:34,680 Speaker 2: of the inflation. If you look at the average wages 78 00:04:34,960 --> 00:04:39,679 Speaker 2: in the Atlanta Fed's wage tracker are running five point 79 00:04:39,760 --> 00:04:42,839 Speaker 2: six percent year over year, So people are getting real 80 00:04:42,880 --> 00:04:44,640 Speaker 2: wage s gains. And to the extent that people are 81 00:04:44,640 --> 00:04:47,800 Speaker 2: getting real wage gains, they have the ability to spend. 82 00:04:48,800 --> 00:04:53,719 Speaker 2: So you know, it's also a story of as you 83 00:04:53,760 --> 00:04:57,039 Speaker 2: point out of different segments, it's like, you know, the 84 00:04:57,120 --> 00:05:00,920 Speaker 2: rich are getting or getting richer to to a certain extent, 85 00:05:01,000 --> 00:05:03,720 Speaker 2: I mean, a lot of the spending comes from the 86 00:05:04,080 --> 00:05:07,240 Speaker 2: top half of the demographic segment. 87 00:05:08,480 --> 00:05:08,680 Speaker 6: You know. 88 00:05:08,800 --> 00:05:14,000 Speaker 5: To that end, you mentioned the consumer prices. We got 89 00:05:14,040 --> 00:05:16,960 Speaker 5: those numbers in earlier this week. We also got producer prices. 90 00:05:17,240 --> 00:05:20,960 Speaker 5: I mean, we see to seem to have two different narratives. 91 00:05:20,960 --> 00:05:24,400 Speaker 5: There are one that consumer prices and producer prices are 92 00:05:24,440 --> 00:05:28,359 Speaker 5: starting to disinflate at the same time as we have 93 00:05:28,400 --> 00:05:32,240 Speaker 5: all this optimism, which really goes against the FED the 94 00:05:32,320 --> 00:05:35,839 Speaker 5: traditional economic theory that you know, the FED really needs 95 00:05:35,880 --> 00:05:38,600 Speaker 5: to cause some kind of slow down in the economy, 96 00:05:39,080 --> 00:05:43,560 Speaker 5: which numbers is the central bank watching most closely? 97 00:05:44,839 --> 00:05:49,200 Speaker 2: Well, if you listen to FED Shair Pale, he's very 98 00:05:49,200 --> 00:05:51,920 Speaker 2: focused on the labor market. I mean there are, as 99 00:05:51,920 --> 00:05:55,400 Speaker 2: you point out, two schools the thoughts. There's the Phillips 100 00:05:55,480 --> 00:06:00,280 Speaker 2: curve thought that unemployment has to you know, go up 101 00:06:00,400 --> 00:06:03,760 Speaker 2: for inflation to come down, and there's this big relationship 102 00:06:03,800 --> 00:06:06,640 Speaker 2: between the two. And you know a lot of the 103 00:06:06,720 --> 00:06:10,800 Speaker 2: older FED leaders basically buy into that kind of labor 104 00:06:10,839 --> 00:06:14,680 Speaker 2: market view of inflation. But there's also some people who 105 00:06:14,680 --> 00:06:18,039 Speaker 2: are pushing back on it, like Austin Goules the Chicago FED, 106 00:06:19,240 --> 00:06:24,200 Speaker 2: you know, and even Jim Bullard, who is retiring, you know, 107 00:06:24,360 --> 00:06:27,680 Speaker 2: say that the relationship isn't all that clear. And we 108 00:06:27,880 --> 00:06:32,440 Speaker 2: have had disinflation so far without any labor market pain. 109 00:06:33,080 --> 00:06:36,520 Speaker 2: And you know, now there's a big debate at the FEDS. 110 00:06:36,760 --> 00:06:39,200 Speaker 2: Can this continue or do we need to see some 111 00:06:39,279 --> 00:06:45,159 Speaker 2: pain to get back to two percent inflation? And that's 112 00:06:45,160 --> 00:06:48,040 Speaker 2: going to be the big debate when the FED starts 113 00:06:48,080 --> 00:06:51,440 Speaker 2: meeting today, among other things, today is the last day 114 00:06:51,480 --> 00:06:56,400 Speaker 2: we get FED speak before the before the July meeting, 115 00:06:56,680 --> 00:07:01,960 Speaker 2: and then we go into a self imposed blackout. You know, right, 116 00:07:02,680 --> 00:07:03,920 Speaker 2: it'll be an interesting debate. 117 00:07:04,680 --> 00:07:06,840 Speaker 4: And Steve, we only have about thirty seconds left, but 118 00:07:06,960 --> 00:07:09,240 Speaker 4: we have to you brought up James Bullard, who set 119 00:07:09,279 --> 00:07:11,280 Speaker 4: to leave the Central Bank. How tricky is this for 120 00:07:11,320 --> 00:07:13,560 Speaker 4: the Fed's trajectory moving forward when you have a hawk 121 00:07:13,640 --> 00:07:14,920 Speaker 4: like that who's about to leave. 122 00:07:15,800 --> 00:07:19,560 Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, I think in the short term Bullard 123 00:07:19,640 --> 00:07:24,920 Speaker 2: is highly influential. He definitely carried more than his single 124 00:07:25,000 --> 00:07:28,520 Speaker 2: vote because everybody paid attention to them, including the markets. 125 00:07:29,640 --> 00:07:33,640 Speaker 2: But Powell has firm control on the committee. So if 126 00:07:33,640 --> 00:07:37,080 Speaker 2: he wants to hike, he clearly wants to hike in July. 127 00:07:37,480 --> 00:07:39,200 Speaker 2: You know, whether we get a second hike or not 128 00:07:39,520 --> 00:07:42,600 Speaker 2: will be basically up up to Powell. He can continue 129 00:07:42,640 --> 00:07:44,280 Speaker 2: to do it if he wants. 130 00:07:44,320 --> 00:07:48,800 Speaker 4: All right, Steve Matthew's economy reporter at Bloomberg News. Always 131 00:07:48,800 --> 00:07:50,760 Speaker 4: a pleasure getting your take on all things when it 132 00:07:50,800 --> 00:07:53,120 Speaker 4: comes to the trajectory of economic growth. 133 00:07:53,200 --> 00:07:53,320 Speaker 1: Work. 134 00:07:54,720 --> 00:07:58,120 Speaker 7: You're listening to the teenth Ken's a line program Bloomberg 135 00:07:58,160 --> 00:08:01,560 Speaker 7: Markets weekdays at ten am. He's there on Bloomberg dot Com, 136 00:08:01,640 --> 00:08:04,760 Speaker 7: the iHeartRadio app and the Bloomberg Business App, or listen 137 00:08:04,840 --> 00:08:07,520 Speaker 7: on demand wherever you get your podcast. 138 00:08:08,720 --> 00:08:12,640 Speaker 4: Jessman and Smoon Foxman here in the Bloomberg Interactive Brokers studio. 139 00:08:13,200 --> 00:08:15,280 Speaker 4: And on a day when you're looking at these bank 140 00:08:15,320 --> 00:08:18,320 Speaker 4: earnings JP Morgan, Wells Fargo City Group all reporting this morning, 141 00:08:18,440 --> 00:08:21,280 Speaker 4: especially if you're looking at GP Morgan revenue soaring to 142 00:08:21,360 --> 00:08:24,440 Speaker 4: a record, really boosted by Fed interest rate hikes, and 143 00:08:24,440 --> 00:08:27,320 Speaker 4: also looking over at Wells Fargo those earning more net 144 00:08:27,400 --> 00:08:30,720 Speaker 4: interest income than analysts did expect it really helping giving 145 00:08:30,760 --> 00:08:34,120 Speaker 4: a boost to the broader equity market this Friday. But 146 00:08:34,120 --> 00:08:36,480 Speaker 4: who better to come in and speak with us and 147 00:08:36,559 --> 00:08:39,200 Speaker 4: break down these latest earnings results from the big banks 148 00:08:39,360 --> 00:08:42,920 Speaker 4: than Allison Williams, Senior Global Banks and Asset Manager Analysts 149 00:08:42,960 --> 00:08:47,080 Speaker 4: with Bloomberg Intelligence. Thanks so much for joining us in studio. Allison. 150 00:08:47,240 --> 00:08:50,280 Speaker 4: What's your takeaway once we got these first batch of 151 00:08:50,320 --> 00:08:51,360 Speaker 4: big banks this morning? 152 00:08:51,880 --> 00:08:55,600 Speaker 8: So I would say, obviously the net interest income upside 153 00:08:55,640 --> 00:08:58,280 Speaker 8: at all the banks and the higher guidance, especially with 154 00:08:58,360 --> 00:09:01,280 Speaker 8: respect to net interest income is positive, but I think 155 00:09:01,320 --> 00:09:06,280 Speaker 8: it was sort of expected by investors. We when you 156 00:09:06,320 --> 00:09:08,960 Speaker 8: looked at the run rate for these banks, you could 157 00:09:08,960 --> 00:09:11,640 Speaker 8: tell that their previous guidance was a little bit conservative. 158 00:09:12,200 --> 00:09:14,080 Speaker 8: I think the most impressive thing that we saw this 159 00:09:14,120 --> 00:09:16,600 Speaker 8: morning with the twenty five percent return on tangible equity 160 00:09:16,600 --> 00:09:20,280 Speaker 8: at JP Morgan. So that is helped by the interest income, 161 00:09:20,320 --> 00:09:24,200 Speaker 8: also helped by the better capital markets. Business costs in 162 00:09:24,360 --> 00:09:29,000 Speaker 8: line and provisions rising as we would expect with normalizing credit, 163 00:09:29,520 --> 00:09:32,720 Speaker 8: and so across the banks we're seeing, you know, trading 164 00:09:32,800 --> 00:09:38,000 Speaker 8: down a little bit but still normalizing within historically higher levels. 165 00:09:38,800 --> 00:09:40,719 Speaker 8: Fees M and A is really the big head when 166 00:09:40,720 --> 00:09:45,679 Speaker 8: they're as expected. Equity fees up a bit. We're seeing 167 00:09:45,679 --> 00:09:47,960 Speaker 8: some green shoots there, but we still expect that fees 168 00:09:48,000 --> 00:09:53,320 Speaker 8: are setting at a lower level, expenses basically in line 169 00:09:53,360 --> 00:09:56,400 Speaker 8: where you know there is some higher severance adding to 170 00:09:56,440 --> 00:10:00,200 Speaker 8: those costs, especially flagged by Wells Fargo. And then the 171 00:10:00,200 --> 00:10:04,200 Speaker 8: provision side, we are seeing reserve building again Wells Fargo, 172 00:10:04,640 --> 00:10:08,079 Speaker 8: which is the biggest commercial real estate lender adding related 173 00:10:08,080 --> 00:10:10,880 Speaker 8: to office profit properties. That's not a surprise, it's an 174 00:10:10,920 --> 00:10:15,680 Speaker 8: area that everyone's watching. And then that card growth really 175 00:10:15,960 --> 00:10:18,720 Speaker 8: that we're seeing in the loans also means that banks 176 00:10:18,760 --> 00:10:19,680 Speaker 8: are adding reserves. 177 00:10:20,080 --> 00:10:22,319 Speaker 5: Well, we'll dig into some of the details there. But 178 00:10:23,040 --> 00:10:27,280 Speaker 5: as as someone who is not as enmeshed in the 179 00:10:27,320 --> 00:10:33,720 Speaker 5: banking nitty gritty, no, I think it's not something that's 180 00:10:34,320 --> 00:10:38,120 Speaker 5: protectarly fantastic. As a finance reporter, however, I would I 181 00:10:38,160 --> 00:10:43,120 Speaker 5: want you to rank a differentiate for me between JP Morgan, 182 00:10:43,400 --> 00:10:49,080 Speaker 5: who shares up percent today, City Group down over one percent, 183 00:10:49,679 --> 00:10:52,719 Speaker 5: and Wells Fargo somewhere in between. I mean, is that 184 00:10:52,760 --> 00:10:56,319 Speaker 5: the ranking that we're seeing in terms of who's best 185 00:10:56,559 --> 00:10:58,760 Speaker 5: who's worst in our earnings report out today. 186 00:10:59,200 --> 00:11:02,720 Speaker 8: Yeah, so I would say JP Morgan again having the 187 00:11:02,800 --> 00:11:06,960 Speaker 8: strongest quarter and they're they're in their best position for 188 00:11:07,040 --> 00:11:09,559 Speaker 8: the long term, right, So they've been in this virtual 189 00:11:09,840 --> 00:11:14,520 Speaker 8: virtuous cycle of spending on technology, that technology benefiting them 190 00:11:14,600 --> 00:11:18,600 Speaker 8: with a competitive advantage, especially in business like deposit gathering 191 00:11:18,920 --> 00:11:23,480 Speaker 8: and the global investment banking business. With regard to City Group, 192 00:11:23,880 --> 00:11:27,000 Speaker 8: Jane Frasier really I think making all the right decisions there, 193 00:11:27,040 --> 00:11:31,800 Speaker 8: but that's really a longer term story. I mean that 194 00:11:31,800 --> 00:11:35,600 Speaker 8: that bank has been, you know, trying to sort of 195 00:11:35,640 --> 00:11:39,440 Speaker 8: revitalize itself and fix some things for a significant period 196 00:11:39,480 --> 00:11:43,120 Speaker 8: of time. One thing that they have in Commonwealth Fargo 197 00:11:43,440 --> 00:11:46,120 Speaker 8: is that they're spending a lot of money on the 198 00:11:46,160 --> 00:11:49,600 Speaker 8: regulatory and compliance side just to get things in order, 199 00:11:49,600 --> 00:11:53,719 Speaker 8: and so City Group probably has the most opportunity for improvement. 200 00:11:53,960 --> 00:11:57,040 Speaker 8: I think they're delivering on everything that Jane has said. 201 00:11:57,080 --> 00:12:02,040 Speaker 8: It's just a longer path with Fargo. So again I 202 00:12:02,400 --> 00:12:05,400 Speaker 8: talked about the regulatory side of things in those claus, 203 00:12:05,480 --> 00:12:09,079 Speaker 8: but they're I think, hope hopefully for Wells Fargo getting 204 00:12:09,080 --> 00:12:12,200 Speaker 8: to the end of that journey. It's it's been certainly 205 00:12:12,280 --> 00:12:16,280 Speaker 8: much longer than people have thought, but again, better net 206 00:12:16,320 --> 00:12:20,040 Speaker 8: interest income. You know, card is a much smaller business 207 00:12:20,040 --> 00:12:22,400 Speaker 8: for them, but they're you know, that's been in business 208 00:12:22,400 --> 00:12:26,240 Speaker 8: that they're investing in and that's been paying off commercial 209 00:12:26,240 --> 00:12:29,040 Speaker 8: real estate. As I said is they're the biggest lender there, 210 00:12:29,920 --> 00:12:32,679 Speaker 8: so I think it's prudent that they're taking provisions related 211 00:12:32,720 --> 00:12:34,680 Speaker 8: to the office, even though that's going to be a 212 00:12:34,679 --> 00:12:35,280 Speaker 8: long story. 213 00:12:35,400 --> 00:12:37,319 Speaker 4: Allison, I want to get your thoughts when it comes 214 00:12:37,360 --> 00:12:40,640 Speaker 4: to banking regulation because we did hear from Fedvice Chair 215 00:12:41,000 --> 00:12:43,640 Speaker 4: Michael Barr as you know, earlier this week talking about 216 00:12:43,640 --> 00:12:46,880 Speaker 4: how there could be these potential regulatory changes in on 217 00:12:47,000 --> 00:12:50,520 Speaker 4: GP Morgan's call this morning, Jeremy Barnum, the CFO at 218 00:12:50,520 --> 00:12:53,440 Speaker 4: the bank, did receive a question about Basel three, asking 219 00:12:53,440 --> 00:12:57,120 Speaker 4: about what kind of market consequences and CEO Jamie Diamond 220 00:12:57,160 --> 00:13:00,280 Speaker 4: was actually warning about in his intro when he's did 221 00:13:00,280 --> 00:13:04,080 Speaker 4: that these upcoming finalized rules, and Barnum actually did call 222 00:13:04,120 --> 00:13:07,400 Speaker 4: some of the proposals quote excessive. So I mean, do 223 00:13:07,400 --> 00:13:09,520 Speaker 4: you think regulators are listening and what is your kind 224 00:13:09,520 --> 00:13:11,960 Speaker 4: of view of how the banks are thinking about these 225 00:13:12,000 --> 00:13:13,280 Speaker 4: potential proposals. 226 00:13:13,880 --> 00:13:17,400 Speaker 8: So I would say two things. So, first of all, 227 00:13:17,520 --> 00:13:19,520 Speaker 8: I mean the proposals are a long time and coming. 228 00:13:19,600 --> 00:13:22,880 Speaker 8: I think investors, managements, we all want to know what 229 00:13:22,920 --> 00:13:25,960 Speaker 8: the rules are so we can sort of, you know, 230 00:13:26,880 --> 00:13:30,200 Speaker 8: get on with with understanding what the final endgame will be. 231 00:13:30,240 --> 00:13:31,959 Speaker 8: And that's sort of what they're called the Basil three 232 00:13:32,080 --> 00:13:35,240 Speaker 8: endgame rules. That being said, we still have sort of 233 00:13:35,240 --> 00:13:38,160 Speaker 8: this volatility of the ongoing stress tests, So that creates 234 00:13:38,200 --> 00:13:42,000 Speaker 8: a lot of noise. But the second thing again you'll 235 00:13:42,000 --> 00:13:44,959 Speaker 8: hear from bank managements and I think bank investors, is 236 00:13:45,559 --> 00:13:48,600 Speaker 8: you know, the rules are designed to make banks safe, 237 00:13:48,679 --> 00:13:51,880 Speaker 8: but what are the unintended consequences? How much lending is 238 00:13:51,920 --> 00:13:55,080 Speaker 8: being pushed out of the system. It's no secret that 239 00:13:55,200 --> 00:13:59,079 Speaker 8: private credit is really one of the fastest growing areas 240 00:13:59,120 --> 00:14:03,080 Speaker 8: of asset management, and alternative managers are focusing on this 241 00:14:03,200 --> 00:14:07,040 Speaker 8: area of the business. Traditional managers are buying into the business. 242 00:14:07,760 --> 00:14:10,920 Speaker 8: And to the extent that this credit lending is being 243 00:14:10,960 --> 00:14:13,800 Speaker 8: pushed outside of the banking system, you know that the 244 00:14:13,880 --> 00:14:16,280 Speaker 8: risks don't go away. It just I guess it's where 245 00:14:16,320 --> 00:14:17,400 Speaker 8: those risks are. 246 00:14:18,400 --> 00:14:20,960 Speaker 5: Speaking of risks, one of them earlier this year was 247 00:14:21,000 --> 00:14:25,400 Speaker 5: from that regional banking crisis, perhaps though it does seem 248 00:14:25,440 --> 00:14:29,120 Speaker 5: to have dissipated to some degree. JP Morgan seeing a 249 00:14:29,120 --> 00:14:34,440 Speaker 5: two point seven billion dollar gain in its first Republic purchase. 250 00:14:35,520 --> 00:14:39,320 Speaker 5: What signals is some of the commentary that we've heard 251 00:14:39,440 --> 00:14:43,200 Speaker 5: from these executives this morning, sending about you know, other banks, 252 00:14:43,240 --> 00:14:45,640 Speaker 5: regional banks that are looking to report next week. You know, 253 00:14:46,520 --> 00:14:50,880 Speaker 5: are there still concerns alive and well in that space, 254 00:14:51,000 --> 00:14:52,160 Speaker 5: or have we gotten past that. 255 00:14:53,120 --> 00:14:58,040 Speaker 8: I would say, if anything, perhaps the fears might be 256 00:14:58,120 --> 00:15:01,360 Speaker 8: quelled a bit. There is, you know, certainly a differential 257 00:15:01,400 --> 00:15:03,480 Speaker 8: between some of these big banks and some of the 258 00:15:03,520 --> 00:15:06,960 Speaker 8: regional banks. But I think in general, what we saw 259 00:15:07,440 --> 00:15:11,080 Speaker 8: even as early as April and with the first quarter 260 00:15:11,200 --> 00:15:14,880 Speaker 8: reporting season, we did hear most bank management saying things 261 00:15:14,920 --> 00:15:17,600 Speaker 8: had stabilized, and so we have seen that this quarter 262 00:15:19,360 --> 00:15:22,880 Speaker 8: as the turmoil sort of subsided and deposits subsided. Investors 263 00:15:22,920 --> 00:15:26,880 Speaker 8: obviously have focused on the cost of deposits. Those are rising, 264 00:15:26,960 --> 00:15:31,080 Speaker 8: but again I think a little bit better than feared 265 00:15:31,080 --> 00:15:33,480 Speaker 8: that we've seen at the big banks. I think one 266 00:15:33,520 --> 00:15:37,000 Speaker 8: differentiator that we might see a key one for these 267 00:15:37,040 --> 00:15:39,040 Speaker 8: big banks versus the regional banks is more on the 268 00:15:39,080 --> 00:15:43,440 Speaker 8: loan side of things, because credit card is really a 269 00:15:43,440 --> 00:15:47,960 Speaker 8: bunch bigger exposure for City Group, JP, Morgan Wellsbargo to 270 00:15:48,000 --> 00:15:51,120 Speaker 8: a lesser extent, but still more than some of these 271 00:15:51,160 --> 00:15:53,960 Speaker 8: regional banks. And what we are seeing is weakness and 272 00:15:53,960 --> 00:15:58,200 Speaker 8: commercial and industrial balances, loan balances. We saw that in 273 00:15:58,280 --> 00:16:01,280 Speaker 8: the FED industry data. We're seeing it at the banks, 274 00:16:01,320 --> 00:16:04,920 Speaker 8: and that may weigh a little bit more on the regionals, 275 00:16:04,920 --> 00:16:07,200 Speaker 8: and I think, you know, from a broader perspective, back 276 00:16:07,200 --> 00:16:11,120 Speaker 8: to your point about the bank turmoil is we will 277 00:16:11,120 --> 00:16:15,840 Speaker 8: be watching deposits. Are these bigger banks continuing to benefit 278 00:16:16,120 --> 00:16:19,280 Speaker 8: or you know, have things pretty much stabilized for everyone. 279 00:16:19,600 --> 00:16:21,120 Speaker 8: My guess is it's probably more of. 280 00:16:21,080 --> 00:16:23,640 Speaker 4: The latter, and for the bigger banks. Next week we 281 00:16:23,680 --> 00:16:26,920 Speaker 4: have Goldman and obviously Morgan Stanley Bank of America only 282 00:16:26,920 --> 00:16:29,080 Speaker 4: about thirty seconds left. But what's the big thing you 283 00:16:29,120 --> 00:16:32,600 Speaker 4: want to watch when it comes to those particular banks For. 284 00:16:33,120 --> 00:16:35,640 Speaker 8: You know, for a Bank of America, pretty much the 285 00:16:35,720 --> 00:16:38,400 Speaker 8: highlights I've hit, how is an interest income holding up 286 00:16:38,440 --> 00:16:43,120 Speaker 8: their cost of deposits and C and I balances, But 287 00:16:43,240 --> 00:16:46,760 Speaker 8: they might get some benefit from card Goldman and Morgan Stanley. 288 00:16:46,800 --> 00:16:49,200 Speaker 8: We're really going to see the M and A weakness 289 00:16:49,200 --> 00:16:52,520 Speaker 8: feed into those results in a negative way. We'll be 290 00:16:52,560 --> 00:16:55,280 Speaker 8: looking for the equity green shoots. We'll be looking to 291 00:16:55,280 --> 00:17:01,080 Speaker 8: see what happened with headcount and severance costs that sort 292 00:17:01,120 --> 00:17:04,159 Speaker 8: of looks to the second half. And then you know, 293 00:17:04,200 --> 00:17:06,320 Speaker 8: Goldvin Zachs has a few specific things that are going 294 00:17:06,359 --> 00:17:09,160 Speaker 8: to damp their results, but we'll be looking at their 295 00:17:09,160 --> 00:17:11,360 Speaker 8: trading to see how that share holds up. And then 296 00:17:11,400 --> 00:17:14,440 Speaker 8: Morgan Stanley will be looking at the wealth business how 297 00:17:14,440 --> 00:17:18,280 Speaker 8: the flows look. There's some seasonal issues, but hopefully better 298 00:17:18,359 --> 00:17:19,680 Speaker 8: than improved from there. 299 00:17:19,840 --> 00:17:23,440 Speaker 4: Great well. Alison Williams, Senior Global Banks and Asset Manager 300 00:17:23,480 --> 00:17:26,359 Speaker 4: Analysts with Bloomberg Intelligence. Is always a pleasure having you 301 00:17:26,480 --> 00:17:27,080 Speaker 4: join us there. 302 00:17:27,160 --> 00:17:30,240 Speaker 7: You're listening to the tape. Can's our live program Bloomberg 303 00:17:30,280 --> 00:17:33,879 Speaker 7: Markets weekdays at ten am Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the 304 00:17:33,920 --> 00:17:37,160 Speaker 7: tune in app, Bloomberg dot Com, and the Bloomberg Business App. 305 00:17:37,200 --> 00:17:40,040 Speaker 7: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our 306 00:17:40,040 --> 00:17:45,080 Speaker 7: flagship New York station. Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 307 00:17:45,640 --> 00:17:48,560 Speaker 4: Just been in Simoon Foxman here in the Bloomberg Interactive 308 00:17:48,600 --> 00:17:51,119 Speaker 4: Broker Studio. We're going to change things up next and 309 00:17:51,160 --> 00:17:55,119 Speaker 4: talk about student loan forgiveness, and we're gonna have Janet Lauren, 310 00:17:55,320 --> 00:17:59,000 Speaker 4: higher education finance reporter here with Bloomberg News joining us 311 00:17:59,000 --> 00:18:01,640 Speaker 4: on zoom to talk talk about this and especially looking 312 00:18:01,680 --> 00:18:05,639 Speaker 4: at the Biden administration set to forgive thirty nine billion 313 00:18:05,720 --> 00:18:08,080 Speaker 4: dollars in student debt. This does come after the Supreme 314 00:18:08,119 --> 00:18:12,480 Speaker 4: Court did strike down that broader debt forgiveness plan. So 315 00:18:12,800 --> 00:18:15,520 Speaker 4: talk to us Janet about this and kind of break 316 00:18:15,520 --> 00:18:17,200 Speaker 4: it down. What's the latest on this news here? 317 00:18:18,240 --> 00:18:19,679 Speaker 9: Great, Hi, thanks for having me. 318 00:18:20,080 --> 00:18:23,239 Speaker 10: So this is a little bit different than the what 319 00:18:23,400 --> 00:18:27,160 Speaker 10: was being proposed that the Supreme Court shut down. This 320 00:18:27,320 --> 00:18:31,560 Speaker 10: was sort of administrative changes to a longstanding program called 321 00:18:31,640 --> 00:18:35,119 Speaker 10: income These are all income based repayment programs, and it 322 00:18:35,200 --> 00:18:38,600 Speaker 10: targets borrowers who are having trouble paying off their loans. 323 00:18:38,680 --> 00:18:40,800 Speaker 9: And the issue here is, you know, if you look 324 00:18:40,840 --> 00:18:43,760 Speaker 9: and look at these income based repayment programs are kind 325 00:18:43,760 --> 00:18:46,680 Speaker 9: of confusing that there's a lot of red tape you 326 00:18:46,800 --> 00:18:48,960 Speaker 9: have to show you've made payments. And this was in 327 00:18:49,000 --> 00:18:52,360 Speaker 9: some ways a little bit of a surgical strike updating, 328 00:18:52,440 --> 00:18:55,520 Speaker 9: more of a technical requirement. And it's quite an effects 329 00:18:55,600 --> 00:18:58,720 Speaker 9: quite a number of bar quite a higher number of borrowers, 330 00:18:59,119 --> 00:19:03,520 Speaker 9: more than eight hundred thousand, and you know, it forgives 331 00:19:03,520 --> 00:19:06,840 Speaker 9: thirty nine billion in student loans. But this isn't, you know, 332 00:19:06,880 --> 00:19:09,760 Speaker 9: an automatic forgiveness. These borrowers have been making payments for 333 00:19:09,840 --> 00:19:10,639 Speaker 9: quite a long time. 334 00:19:11,720 --> 00:19:15,520 Speaker 5: Tell me about the impact of this in comparison to 335 00:19:15,560 --> 00:19:18,560 Speaker 5: the broader plan that the Biden administration had tried to 336 00:19:18,600 --> 00:19:22,000 Speaker 5: push through. Give me a sense of scale. 337 00:19:23,600 --> 00:19:27,359 Speaker 9: So the whole federal student loan program we're talking about 338 00:19:27,800 --> 00:19:32,080 Speaker 9: roughly one point seven trillion dollars, and that impacts everybody 339 00:19:32,520 --> 00:19:35,760 Speaker 9: for decades who've been borrowing student loans. It also includes 340 00:19:35,840 --> 00:19:39,720 Speaker 9: parents who've taken out parent plus loans. And that forgiveness 341 00:19:39,760 --> 00:19:43,680 Speaker 9: would have given ten thousand dollars to borrowers twenty thousand 342 00:19:44,240 --> 00:19:46,520 Speaker 9: if you had a PEL grant, which is aimed at 343 00:19:46,520 --> 00:19:49,520 Speaker 9: low income students during college, and that was a one 344 00:19:49,600 --> 00:19:53,040 Speaker 9: time forgiveness, and critics you know, said, you know, perhaps 345 00:19:53,080 --> 00:19:56,360 Speaker 9: it's unfair to people who've already paid back their loans, 346 00:19:56,600 --> 00:19:59,760 Speaker 9: but it also doesn't really fix the overall problem of 347 00:20:00,080 --> 00:20:03,119 Speaker 9: college costs continuing to grow up, to go up and 348 00:20:03,200 --> 00:20:06,639 Speaker 9: up and up. And this sort of a surgical strike 349 00:20:06,720 --> 00:20:11,560 Speaker 9: really addresses a program that barrowars have been making payments 350 00:20:11,600 --> 00:20:16,000 Speaker 9: for and income there's a bunch of income driven repayment programs. 351 00:20:16,080 --> 00:20:18,880 Speaker 9: I think there may be as many as a half 352 00:20:18,880 --> 00:20:22,040 Speaker 9: a dozen, and they're confusing, and you know, and this 353 00:20:22,160 --> 00:20:27,959 Speaker 9: allows payments that people have made to count towards these forgiveness, 354 00:20:28,000 --> 00:20:31,600 Speaker 9: which is twenty or twenty five years and these income 355 00:20:31,680 --> 00:20:36,080 Speaker 9: driven payments are calculated based on your income. You have 356 00:20:36,119 --> 00:20:39,600 Speaker 9: to reapply every year. You may not be paying anything. 357 00:20:40,160 --> 00:20:45,000 Speaker 9: And as students start to think about repayment, which begins 358 00:20:45,040 --> 00:20:48,280 Speaker 9: October first, they may want to learn more about these 359 00:20:48,280 --> 00:20:50,600 Speaker 9: programs to see if they're eligible that they may not 360 00:20:50,640 --> 00:20:52,800 Speaker 9: have to make any payment at all when the repayment 361 00:20:52,840 --> 00:20:54,040 Speaker 9: plan starts in October. 362 00:20:54,359 --> 00:20:57,000 Speaker 4: All right, Janet, So myself along with millions of others 363 00:20:57,040 --> 00:20:59,560 Speaker 4: who have a student debt here if we want to 364 00:20:59,560 --> 00:21:02,359 Speaker 4: figure out how we qualify, especially when it comes to 365 00:21:02,400 --> 00:21:04,440 Speaker 4: a lot of these income driven repayment plans that you're 366 00:21:04,440 --> 00:21:06,479 Speaker 4: walking us through. What's the best way to figure it out? 367 00:21:06,640 --> 00:21:07,680 Speaker 4: Just call up your servicer? 368 00:21:08,920 --> 00:21:12,560 Speaker 9: Well, good, great question. So the services are the ones 369 00:21:12,640 --> 00:21:16,560 Speaker 9: that are going to be getting information about repayment. However, 370 00:21:16,720 --> 00:21:18,960 Speaker 9: you could actually go right now to f S a 371 00:21:19,440 --> 00:21:24,680 Speaker 9: Federal student aid and log on and go through the 372 00:21:24,720 --> 00:21:27,520 Speaker 9: whole website and figure out what you might qualify for. 373 00:21:27,840 --> 00:21:30,639 Speaker 9: There's a lot of information you could do now before 374 00:21:30,640 --> 00:21:34,200 Speaker 9: you even hear from your servicer. So that's what I 375 00:21:34,240 --> 00:21:37,920 Speaker 9: would recommend because the plans are kind of complicated they are, 376 00:21:38,000 --> 00:21:40,680 Speaker 9: and bar wars just make it a big headache. Trying 377 00:21:40,720 --> 00:21:43,760 Speaker 9: to understand it, but at least go through there. You know, 378 00:21:43,800 --> 00:21:46,800 Speaker 9: look at the website, look at the plans and if 379 00:21:46,800 --> 00:21:49,400 Speaker 9: you've never you know, there's something like seven or eight 380 00:21:49,400 --> 00:21:52,080 Speaker 9: million people who've actually never made a payment because they've 381 00:21:52,119 --> 00:21:54,159 Speaker 9: graduated from college in the last three three and a 382 00:21:54,160 --> 00:21:59,320 Speaker 9: half years. Go into the student loan site register, get 383 00:21:59,359 --> 00:22:02,400 Speaker 9: more information so you know exactly what you have. It's 384 00:22:02,480 --> 00:22:04,600 Speaker 9: you know, if you if you're taking out a loan 385 00:22:04,640 --> 00:22:07,640 Speaker 9: every year in college, you have chances are eight loans. 386 00:22:07,720 --> 00:22:09,960 Speaker 9: They may all have different interest rates, and it's quite 387 00:22:09,960 --> 00:22:11,479 Speaker 9: confusing to keep track of everything. 388 00:22:11,720 --> 00:22:13,560 Speaker 4: Who do you think gets left out of this? 389 00:22:15,359 --> 00:22:19,280 Speaker 9: Well, this particular program is for people who have already left, 390 00:22:19,359 --> 00:22:23,360 Speaker 9: who've been already in these income driven payment programs, So 391 00:22:23,440 --> 00:22:26,920 Speaker 9: they're aimed at struggling borrowers, people who maybe are underpaid, 392 00:22:27,000 --> 00:22:31,040 Speaker 9: they haven't had jobs and h and that's who these 393 00:22:31,080 --> 00:22:34,600 Speaker 9: are are aimed towards. You know, it's all going to 394 00:22:34,680 --> 00:22:37,760 Speaker 9: depend again on your income. And if you sign up 395 00:22:37,840 --> 00:22:40,240 Speaker 9: and just look at the at the department pages, you'll 396 00:22:40,240 --> 00:22:42,680 Speaker 9: get a better sense of who who these are targeted for. 397 00:22:43,640 --> 00:22:46,240 Speaker 5: Jennet, talk to me about how this fits into the 398 00:22:46,359 --> 00:22:52,680 Speaker 5: overall bid administration plan looking forward about trying to forgive 399 00:22:53,000 --> 00:22:56,120 Speaker 5: student debt. Are we going to see more piecemeal sort 400 00:22:56,160 --> 00:23:01,439 Speaker 5: of developments at this after that unfavorable Supreme Court ruling 401 00:23:02,000 --> 00:23:05,239 Speaker 5: or will we see is this just preparing us for 402 00:23:05,280 --> 00:23:07,160 Speaker 5: a bigger push? 403 00:23:07,200 --> 00:23:09,439 Speaker 9: Well, yes, you absolutely are going to see more of 404 00:23:09,480 --> 00:23:12,560 Speaker 9: these because there are ways to sort of look at 405 00:23:12,560 --> 00:23:17,280 Speaker 9: these these programs. In particular, in the press release that 406 00:23:17,320 --> 00:23:20,920 Speaker 9: the Biden administration said out earlier today, they talked about 407 00:23:20,960 --> 00:23:25,600 Speaker 9: forgiveness that borrowers have already received, such as forty five 408 00:23:25,640 --> 00:23:29,440 Speaker 9: billion through people who've worked through the Public Service Loan 409 00:23:29,480 --> 00:23:33,040 Speaker 9: Forgiveness program. That's a program where you make payments for 410 00:23:33,080 --> 00:23:37,399 Speaker 9: ten years and you work in public service or nonprofit 411 00:23:37,960 --> 00:23:41,359 Speaker 9: and you get forgiveness after ten years. But again, this 412 00:23:41,440 --> 00:23:44,600 Speaker 9: has been a really complicated program. They've made a lot 413 00:23:44,600 --> 00:23:48,680 Speaker 9: of changes to make it easier. I think before these changes, 414 00:23:49,000 --> 00:23:51,200 Speaker 9: something like the number of people who got forgiveness were 415 00:23:51,280 --> 00:23:55,359 Speaker 9: extremely low because it's again the keyword is it becomes 416 00:23:55,480 --> 00:23:57,879 Speaker 9: very confusing. You know, if you switch jobs and you 417 00:23:58,000 --> 00:24:00,680 Speaker 9: haven't signed up and you haven't and you know made 418 00:24:00,880 --> 00:24:03,200 Speaker 9: all the changes, or your employer has it you made 419 00:24:03,280 --> 00:24:06,760 Speaker 9: up qualified and then they also forgiven twenty two billion 420 00:24:06,800 --> 00:24:09,960 Speaker 9: dollars for more than a million barrowers. Who were you 421 00:24:10,160 --> 00:24:13,000 Speaker 9: cheated by schools or their schools? Right? And these are 422 00:24:13,160 --> 00:24:16,720 Speaker 9: typically for profit colleges. And then you owed these thirty 423 00:24:16,800 --> 00:24:19,400 Speaker 9: nine billion and you know it's not a small mound 424 00:24:19,760 --> 00:24:21,800 Speaker 9: of money for loan forgiveness. 425 00:24:22,080 --> 00:24:22,680 Speaker 8: Yeah, I think. 426 00:24:22,960 --> 00:24:26,200 Speaker 4: Well, thanks so much for joining us. Janet Lauren, higher 427 00:24:26,320 --> 00:24:29,960 Speaker 4: education finance reporter with Bloomberg News, joining us to talk 428 00:24:30,000 --> 00:24:33,280 Speaker 4: about President Biden today announcing this another move when it 429 00:24:33,320 --> 00:24:35,520 Speaker 4: comes to forgive student loan forgiveness. 430 00:24:36,680 --> 00:24:40,520 Speaker 7: You're listening to the teenth Cancer Live program Bloomberg Markets 431 00:24:40,560 --> 00:24:43,639 Speaker 7: weekdays at ten am Eastern on Bloomberg dot Com, the 432 00:24:43,720 --> 00:24:46,840 Speaker 7: iHeartRadio app, and the Bloomberg Business App, or listen on 433 00:24:46,920 --> 00:24:48,920 Speaker 7: demand wherever you get your podcasts. 434 00:24:50,960 --> 00:24:55,480 Speaker 4: Jessminton here with Simone Foxman in the Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studio, 435 00:24:55,480 --> 00:24:57,639 Speaker 4: and I want to get straight to our next guest. 436 00:24:57,960 --> 00:25:02,600 Speaker 4: Ifan Davitt, CIO at Monique joins us to talk about 437 00:25:02,720 --> 00:25:06,760 Speaker 4: this week's inflation data. When we're looking at consumer CPI 438 00:25:06,880 --> 00:25:09,320 Speaker 4: as well as producer prices along with the latest on 439 00:25:09,400 --> 00:25:12,119 Speaker 4: the outlook when it comes to all things with markets 440 00:25:12,160 --> 00:25:15,119 Speaker 4: and Investing. Thank you so much for joining us. I 441 00:25:15,160 --> 00:25:16,879 Speaker 4: wanted to start off and just kind of get your 442 00:25:17,000 --> 00:25:20,359 Speaker 4: view and your take of the latest market action today 443 00:25:20,359 --> 00:25:22,840 Speaker 4: in the equity market on the back of these bank 444 00:25:22,920 --> 00:25:25,600 Speaker 4: results and the earnings from JK. P. Morgan and others, 445 00:25:25,640 --> 00:25:27,400 Speaker 4: when it comes to city that's dragging a little things 446 00:25:27,400 --> 00:25:29,440 Speaker 4: a little bit lower. In the financial sector. 447 00:25:30,200 --> 00:25:33,040 Speaker 11: Well, the financial sector has really probably not had the 448 00:25:33,040 --> 00:25:36,879 Speaker 11: attention it deserves given what a hotbed of chaos it 449 00:25:37,080 --> 00:25:39,199 Speaker 11: was in the first quarter, and towards the end of 450 00:25:39,200 --> 00:25:42,080 Speaker 11: that it did seem that that regional bank crisis got 451 00:25:42,080 --> 00:25:45,280 Speaker 11: swept under the carpet a little and it wasn't fully 452 00:25:45,359 --> 00:25:48,080 Speaker 11: understood how that was going to ripple through the economy. 453 00:25:48,280 --> 00:25:50,280 Speaker 11: So I think it's appropriate we saw in the last 454 00:25:50,280 --> 00:25:53,600 Speaker 11: few weeks the significant write downs by the likes of 455 00:25:53,640 --> 00:25:56,960 Speaker 11: Bank of America and just this bond market has taken 456 00:25:56,960 --> 00:25:59,520 Speaker 11: its toll on bank stocks, and what we can see 457 00:25:59,560 --> 00:26:02,120 Speaker 11: from the REAIS banking sector, it's just how exposed they 458 00:26:02,119 --> 00:26:05,760 Speaker 11: are to quite a fickle consumer and depositor essentially when 459 00:26:05,800 --> 00:26:08,879 Speaker 11: trouble starts to brew. So we've always suggested that it 460 00:26:08,880 --> 00:26:12,240 Speaker 11: would take some time to really fully understand what kind 461 00:26:12,320 --> 00:26:15,240 Speaker 11: of problems the banking sector was facing. And when we 462 00:26:15,280 --> 00:26:18,119 Speaker 11: see these kind of very mixed picture coming out of banks, 463 00:26:18,160 --> 00:26:19,600 Speaker 11: you know, certainly some we're seeing a bit of a 464 00:26:19,640 --> 00:26:23,399 Speaker 11: pickup and some trading and assets are asset pools are 465 00:26:23,440 --> 00:26:26,880 Speaker 11: growing thanks to equity markets. It's only natural that investors 466 00:26:26,920 --> 00:26:29,880 Speaker 11: will start to try to dissect that pick and choose 467 00:26:30,240 --> 00:26:33,680 Speaker 11: where the opportunities are. So I'd say, we're not seen 468 00:26:33,720 --> 00:26:36,600 Speaker 11: the end of this banking crisis yet. So that's why 469 00:26:36,680 --> 00:26:40,080 Speaker 11: it didn't surprise me that there's a little bit of 470 00:26:40,280 --> 00:26:42,240 Speaker 11: I suppose, just a little bit of just a delay 471 00:26:42,320 --> 00:26:46,160 Speaker 11: in terms of processing that's less exuberant than we might expect. 472 00:26:46,760 --> 00:26:49,119 Speaker 5: Even so you're saying, not the end of the banking 473 00:26:49,160 --> 00:26:51,920 Speaker 5: crisis yet, How do you expect to see this play 474 00:26:51,920 --> 00:26:54,199 Speaker 5: out when we get some of the regional banks, some 475 00:26:54,280 --> 00:26:58,040 Speaker 5: of the other banks come report their results next week. 476 00:26:58,920 --> 00:27:01,520 Speaker 11: Well, certainly there is a lagging effect always in these 477 00:27:01,560 --> 00:27:03,240 Speaker 11: bank results. We only know at the end of the 478 00:27:03,320 --> 00:27:06,800 Speaker 11: quarter how deposits had moved, and we only know then, 479 00:27:06,840 --> 00:27:09,080 Speaker 11: of course when what write downs if any, are being 480 00:27:09,080 --> 00:27:11,640 Speaker 11: taken on a fixed income book. So with the FEDS 481 00:27:11,800 --> 00:27:14,399 Speaker 11: looking set to continue its increase in rates, that's going 482 00:27:14,440 --> 00:27:17,480 Speaker 11: to still put pressure on some of these securities holdings. 483 00:27:17,760 --> 00:27:21,640 Speaker 11: This was perhaps an unintended consequence of the steepest rate 484 00:27:21,760 --> 00:27:25,280 Speaker 11: rise trajectory we've seen in recent history, but it was 485 00:27:25,320 --> 00:27:28,360 Speaker 11: not unanticipated. It should have been anticipated that this would 486 00:27:28,400 --> 00:27:31,040 Speaker 11: take its toll somewhere after the bear market we had 487 00:27:31,080 --> 00:27:33,480 Speaker 11: in bonds last year. So what I expect is and 488 00:27:33,480 --> 00:27:35,880 Speaker 11: we can see that regional banks have seen no pickup. 489 00:27:36,200 --> 00:27:40,040 Speaker 11: We've seen no bottom fishing almost whatsoever within those banks 490 00:27:40,080 --> 00:27:43,399 Speaker 11: since the trouble started brewing back in February March. So 491 00:27:43,440 --> 00:27:45,720 Speaker 11: I say that indicates that investors are very happy to 492 00:27:45,720 --> 00:27:48,560 Speaker 11: send us sidelines when it comes to financials today and 493 00:27:48,600 --> 00:27:50,920 Speaker 11: will remain on those sidelines. Is more than enough to 494 00:27:50,960 --> 00:27:55,880 Speaker 11: attract them elsewhere in the equity sectors that are looking 495 00:27:55,920 --> 00:27:58,920 Speaker 11: more promising out of more upside today. So I expect 496 00:27:59,200 --> 00:28:03,080 Speaker 11: a very low level of enthusiasm around financials. And as 497 00:28:03,080 --> 00:28:05,280 Speaker 11: far as what the regional banks are likely to come 498 00:28:05,280 --> 00:28:07,600 Speaker 11: out with, I think it's going to be challenging. I 499 00:28:07,600 --> 00:28:09,520 Speaker 11: think they may spin it in different ways, but it 500 00:28:09,520 --> 00:28:10,280 Speaker 11: will be challenging. 501 00:28:10,880 --> 00:28:13,879 Speaker 4: So then, how are you advising clients to position at 502 00:28:13,880 --> 00:28:16,000 Speaker 4: this point? Where do you think they should put their money. 503 00:28:17,119 --> 00:28:20,119 Speaker 11: We have always had a very it's almost like our 504 00:28:20,160 --> 00:28:23,199 Speaker 11: message doesn't change. We talk about core exposures. We like 505 00:28:23,240 --> 00:28:26,359 Speaker 11: to have exposures across growth and value segments. We like 506 00:28:26,440 --> 00:28:29,800 Speaker 11: exposures that are international in flavor, that include emerging markets, 507 00:28:29,840 --> 00:28:33,120 Speaker 11: develop markets X US, and of course a very strong 508 00:28:33,400 --> 00:28:36,280 Speaker 11: core allocation to the US. None of that changes, so 509 00:28:36,440 --> 00:28:38,800 Speaker 11: we're still quite keen on that, and I'd say what 510 00:28:38,840 --> 00:28:42,640 Speaker 11: we're advising is to look at the underlove sectors. Everyone's 511 00:28:42,680 --> 00:28:45,560 Speaker 11: talking about the top seven stocks today, those stocks that 512 00:28:45,600 --> 00:28:49,000 Speaker 11: are really showing and lifting the market almost single handedly, 513 00:28:49,280 --> 00:28:51,640 Speaker 11: those seven. Everything else is lagging and is very lack 514 00:28:51,760 --> 00:28:54,960 Speaker 11: lust to year today. Since the numbers are better than expected, 515 00:28:55,280 --> 00:28:59,040 Speaker 11: the consumer, the economy, everything's stronger than expected, we think 516 00:28:59,080 --> 00:29:02,400 Speaker 11: that that good will should trickle down across sectors. So 517 00:29:02,440 --> 00:29:05,920 Speaker 11: we'd expect that other sectors will start to participate more 518 00:29:05,960 --> 00:29:09,520 Speaker 11: and more now. And they're therefore for our clients were saying, 519 00:29:09,880 --> 00:29:14,040 Speaker 11: stay invested in core, stay balanced, don't neglect value. Look 520 00:29:14,080 --> 00:29:17,640 Speaker 11: at the less perhaps exciting sectors today, less momentum, but 521 00:29:17,680 --> 00:29:21,480 Speaker 11: around healthcare industrials, consumer staples, that's where we think the 522 00:29:21,520 --> 00:29:23,920 Speaker 11: next leg of this rally will happen now. 523 00:29:23,960 --> 00:29:28,120 Speaker 5: Even you mentioned healthcare there in addition to the fact 524 00:29:28,320 --> 00:29:31,480 Speaker 5: that you are quite healthy. Have run a fun fact 525 00:29:31,520 --> 00:29:34,760 Speaker 5: here our producer pointing out fifty one marathons. 526 00:29:34,760 --> 00:29:35,200 Speaker 3: Amazing. 527 00:29:35,960 --> 00:29:36,440 Speaker 4: Wow. 528 00:29:36,680 --> 00:29:37,440 Speaker 6: So hopefully you. 529 00:29:37,400 --> 00:29:40,880 Speaker 5: Do not have to rest on the services of the 530 00:29:41,080 --> 00:29:46,200 Speaker 5: likes of United Health. The health insurer reporting today had 531 00:29:46,240 --> 00:29:52,560 Speaker 5: talked up these these rising costs in it the potential 532 00:29:52,560 --> 00:29:56,360 Speaker 5: for rising costs people going back and getting all the 533 00:29:56,360 --> 00:29:59,560 Speaker 5: elective procedures that they had put off during the pandemic. 534 00:30:00,000 --> 00:30:03,720 Speaker 5: What's your thesis there if healthcare is something that's among 535 00:30:03,760 --> 00:30:05,640 Speaker 5: your winners sector wise. 536 00:30:06,360 --> 00:30:10,000 Speaker 11: It's interesting there are certainly healthcare has undergoing transformation, just 537 00:30:10,000 --> 00:30:12,560 Speaker 11: like many other industries, and certainly there may be this 538 00:30:12,640 --> 00:30:16,120 Speaker 11: imbalanced post COVID of as you mentioned elective surgeries. I 539 00:30:16,120 --> 00:30:18,720 Speaker 11: thankfully haven't needed anything were to be replaced yet, thank you, 540 00:30:18,800 --> 00:30:21,320 Speaker 11: But I couldn't traveline if I continue beating the bidding 541 00:30:21,360 --> 00:30:24,320 Speaker 11: the sidewalk. But so that that one is one thing 542 00:30:24,320 --> 00:30:26,920 Speaker 11: that perhaps an anomaly that will work its way through. 543 00:30:27,280 --> 00:30:30,520 Speaker 11: But with the advent of digital health, with more telemedicine 544 00:30:30,600 --> 00:30:33,320 Speaker 11: and particularly AI, and nobody's really paying a huge amount 545 00:30:33,320 --> 00:30:36,040 Speaker 11: of attention to just how much AI is going to 546 00:30:36,080 --> 00:30:40,080 Speaker 11: transform the healthcare industry, transform the insurance industry. I've spoken 547 00:30:40,120 --> 00:30:42,800 Speaker 11: about financials before. We focused on banks, but when you 548 00:30:42,840 --> 00:30:47,160 Speaker 11: look at more broad financials, insurers are overall winners here 549 00:30:47,200 --> 00:30:51,120 Speaker 11: in the current transsition to use of AI and bigger 550 00:30:51,200 --> 00:30:54,960 Speaker 11: data because they can calculate with much more precision the 551 00:30:55,080 --> 00:30:58,080 Speaker 11: risk involved in their insurance, and they can take this 552 00:30:58,200 --> 00:31:00,720 Speaker 11: data and use it to do better underwriting. They do 553 00:31:00,800 --> 00:31:03,360 Speaker 11: also have a certain amount of pricing power. As we 554 00:31:03,440 --> 00:31:06,280 Speaker 11: all know, we're not exactly when it comes to negotiating 555 00:31:06,320 --> 00:31:09,200 Speaker 11: our car insurance, our house insurance. We're not always in 556 00:31:09,240 --> 00:31:11,760 Speaker 11: a position of strength. It's usually the insurers that have 557 00:31:11,840 --> 00:31:15,600 Speaker 11: that pricing power. So they're saying really strong margins being protected. 558 00:31:16,600 --> 00:31:19,880 Speaker 11: Digital health, of course, will ultimately drive costs down. If 559 00:31:19,880 --> 00:31:23,560 Speaker 11: we can use our telemedicine, if we can have more 560 00:31:23,600 --> 00:31:27,280 Speaker 11: control in the holder, in the patient of their health care, 561 00:31:27,360 --> 00:31:32,120 Speaker 11: less reliance and expensive services, that trajectory is deflationary, we 562 00:31:32,160 --> 00:31:35,600 Speaker 11: believe for healthcare. However, yes, in the short term there 563 00:31:35,640 --> 00:31:38,360 Speaker 11: probably will be the spike, which is the post COVID 564 00:31:38,400 --> 00:31:39,960 Speaker 11: reckoning that we're seeing in other sectors. 565 00:31:39,960 --> 00:31:43,160 Speaker 4: To you brought up industrials, which I think is interesting 566 00:31:43,200 --> 00:31:45,320 Speaker 4: because when you look at that particular group in the 567 00:31:45,400 --> 00:31:48,120 Speaker 4: S and P. Five hundred, it's actually trading at records, 568 00:31:48,120 --> 00:31:52,000 Speaker 4: and that's a particular group that, as you know, cyclically oriented, 569 00:31:52,160 --> 00:31:54,959 Speaker 4: very tied to the health of the economy. What do 570 00:31:55,000 --> 00:31:57,920 Speaker 4: you think this tells us about the trajectory of the 571 00:31:57,960 --> 00:32:00,760 Speaker 4: equity mortgage as well as how that tie in to 572 00:32:01,160 --> 00:32:02,040 Speaker 4: economic growth. 573 00:32:03,360 --> 00:32:05,480 Speaker 11: Well, this is the economy that is proving to be 574 00:32:05,520 --> 00:32:09,400 Speaker 11: surprisingly resilient, and I think it's really bucking many commentators 575 00:32:09,480 --> 00:32:12,800 Speaker 11: expectations as to just when this recession, if whatever comes, 576 00:32:12,800 --> 00:32:16,240 Speaker 11: will come. And in a way, it's almost an unbreakable economy. 577 00:32:16,240 --> 00:32:18,200 Speaker 11: I wrote a piece today about how it is almost 578 00:32:18,240 --> 00:32:22,040 Speaker 11: anti fragile to borrow Nasim Teleb's phrase in the sense 579 00:32:22,080 --> 00:32:25,280 Speaker 11: that no matter what monetary policy or physical policy throws 580 00:32:25,320 --> 00:32:29,000 Speaker 11: at it, the economy continues to be resilient. And I'd 581 00:32:29,040 --> 00:32:31,600 Speaker 11: say that I've also been hearing that there is an 582 00:32:31,680 --> 00:32:35,520 Speaker 11: unprecedented amount of capital on the sidelines on company balance 583 00:32:35,560 --> 00:32:39,160 Speaker 11: sheets to be spent on capex. Ways in some ways 584 00:32:39,160 --> 00:32:42,360 Speaker 11: it's compared to post war spending. Not only do we 585 00:32:42,440 --> 00:32:45,320 Speaker 11: have this pent up demand for spending because there hasn't 586 00:32:45,360 --> 00:32:48,120 Speaker 11: been much during COVID, but also things like the Inflation 587 00:32:48,200 --> 00:32:52,080 Speaker 11: Reduction Act and the stimulus packages which are providing incentives 588 00:32:52,120 --> 00:32:56,680 Speaker 11: to invest in those technologies that are tied to the 589 00:32:56,720 --> 00:33:00,480 Speaker 11: transition economy. All of this bodes very well for ustrials. 590 00:33:00,920 --> 00:33:06,200 Speaker 11: AI is going to require tremendous investment in facilities, in 591 00:33:06,280 --> 00:33:09,360 Speaker 11: chemicals and stuff and batteries, et cetera, and that's all 592 00:33:09,400 --> 00:33:12,080 Speaker 11: going to bode well. So this is the trickle down effect. 593 00:33:12,480 --> 00:33:15,040 Speaker 11: The first layer has been in tech stocks, where you 594 00:33:15,040 --> 00:33:18,160 Speaker 11: could naturally expect that we'd have more in terms of 595 00:33:18,200 --> 00:33:21,360 Speaker 11: the in terms of the AI height cycle. But now 596 00:33:21,400 --> 00:33:24,000 Speaker 11: it's going to actually be implemented and the investments are 597 00:33:24,040 --> 00:33:26,960 Speaker 11: going to happen. And just like cybersecurity is a non 598 00:33:26,960 --> 00:33:31,560 Speaker 11: negotiable part of a corporate spending trajectory, right now, we're 599 00:33:31,600 --> 00:33:34,880 Speaker 11: going to see investments in technology non negotiable and that 600 00:33:34,920 --> 00:33:36,840 Speaker 11: all bodes well for the component makers. 601 00:33:37,120 --> 00:33:40,520 Speaker 5: Yeah, so looking beyond the semiconductors, the hot names, the NVIDIAs, 602 00:33:41,160 --> 00:33:43,520 Speaker 5: you know, even we only have about thirty seconds here, 603 00:33:44,080 --> 00:33:47,920 Speaker 5: but talk to me. We've seen some contradictory indicators, one 604 00:33:47,920 --> 00:33:50,880 Speaker 5: of them being housing about where the future of the 605 00:33:50,920 --> 00:33:54,120 Speaker 5: economy goes. Your quick thoughts, because we get some big 606 00:33:54,200 --> 00:33:56,200 Speaker 5: numbers next week, what do you expect to see? 607 00:33:57,080 --> 00:33:59,320 Speaker 11: Yeah, housing is it, as you said, a mixed indicator. 608 00:33:59,320 --> 00:34:01,360 Speaker 11: We have the some of the highest mortgage rates we've 609 00:34:01,400 --> 00:34:04,000 Speaker 11: seen in decades back to their peaks, but that doesn't 610 00:34:04,000 --> 00:34:06,440 Speaker 11: seem to be biting the consumer. Many locked in their 611 00:34:06,520 --> 00:34:08,719 Speaker 11: rates at lower levels. And we can also see this 612 00:34:08,800 --> 00:34:11,240 Speaker 11: quite a mixed picture. We've seen the average price falling, 613 00:34:11,480 --> 00:34:14,640 Speaker 11: but yet demand and housing starts rising, and that of 614 00:34:14,680 --> 00:34:18,080 Speaker 11: course indicates how just how checkered this market is in 615 00:34:18,120 --> 00:34:20,640 Speaker 11: that some of the hot segments say that the Nashville's 616 00:34:20,640 --> 00:34:23,680 Speaker 11: of Florida that will actually be be quite strong. I'm 617 00:34:23,680 --> 00:34:25,960 Speaker 11: here in the Midwest in Chicago, we might see some 618 00:34:26,000 --> 00:34:28,560 Speaker 11: of our pricing a little softer. So it's going to 619 00:34:28,600 --> 00:34:32,759 Speaker 11: be mixed, definitely. With the post COVID economy, we're still 620 00:34:32,760 --> 00:34:35,279 Speaker 11: seeing a strong demand for people to live in those 621 00:34:35,360 --> 00:34:38,520 Speaker 11: houses with those home offices. And I think within the 622 00:34:38,640 --> 00:34:43,520 Speaker 11: real estate segment office is the sick six sector right now, 623 00:34:43,960 --> 00:34:45,280 Speaker 11: residential is quite robust. 624 00:34:46,080 --> 00:34:49,040 Speaker 5: Ethan, thank you for giving us such a broad outlook 625 00:34:49,160 --> 00:34:54,200 Speaker 5: on so many sectors where we head with the US economy. 626 00:34:54,280 --> 00:34:57,920 Speaker 5: We really appreciate it. That's Ethan deviit Cio at Moneta 627 00:34:58,120 --> 00:35:03,800 Speaker 5: with AUM seven billion dollars, managing the money, looking at 628 00:35:03,880 --> 00:35:07,799 Speaker 5: the markets, and some interesting thoughts there on housing, particularly 629 00:35:07,840 --> 00:35:09,879 Speaker 5: as we head into a big week of data. 630 00:35:10,200 --> 00:35:12,760 Speaker 7: You're listening to the tape can to our live program 631 00:35:12,800 --> 00:35:16,760 Speaker 7: Bloomberg Markets weekdays at ten am Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, 632 00:35:16,920 --> 00:35:19,640 Speaker 7: the tune in app, Bloomberg dot Com, and the Bloomberg 633 00:35:19,680 --> 00:35:22,760 Speaker 7: Business app. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa 634 00:35:22,800 --> 00:35:26,160 Speaker 7: from our flagship New York station Just Say Alexa playing 635 00:35:26,239 --> 00:35:29,239 Speaker 7: Bloomberg eleven thirty and our. 636 00:35:29,160 --> 00:35:31,640 Speaker 4: Next guest, doctor Lisa Breno, who is the president of 637 00:35:31,719 --> 00:35:35,560 Speaker 4: Defense Metals, who's discussing the significance of China banning rare 638 00:35:35,680 --> 00:35:39,040 Speaker 4: earth exports and how it affects the US and production 639 00:35:39,400 --> 00:35:42,520 Speaker 4: around the world. Joining us on zoom and please can 640 00:35:42,560 --> 00:35:45,640 Speaker 4: you set the scene for us and explain why is 641 00:35:45,800 --> 00:35:49,240 Speaker 4: China banning rare earth metal exports at this point? 642 00:35:50,600 --> 00:35:53,959 Speaker 6: Thank you, Thank you very much for having me so. 643 00:35:55,280 --> 00:36:02,240 Speaker 6: China has essentially said they are planning to pose export 644 00:36:02,280 --> 00:36:08,200 Speaker 6: restrictions on some rare metals, specifically gallium and germanium, which 645 00:36:08,239 --> 00:36:14,520 Speaker 6: are critical for semiconductor applications. To make chips effectively. So 646 00:36:14,880 --> 00:36:19,200 Speaker 6: they have not yet imposed export restrictions on other rare 647 00:36:19,239 --> 00:36:25,400 Speaker 6: metals such as earth elements, which we Defense Metals are 648 00:36:25,440 --> 00:36:29,600 Speaker 6: planning to produce. Those are critical for applications for green 649 00:36:29,640 --> 00:36:35,560 Speaker 6: applications like electric vehicles and wind turbines. But it seems 650 00:36:35,600 --> 00:36:40,320 Speaker 6: that the fact that China is imposing some restrictions now 651 00:36:40,480 --> 00:36:45,239 Speaker 6: on semiconductors, it is highly likely that they would have 652 00:36:46,360 --> 00:36:52,320 Speaker 6: the power certainly and potentially they might also impose restrictions 653 00:36:52,480 --> 00:36:53,080 Speaker 6: on rare earth. 654 00:36:53,920 --> 00:36:55,880 Speaker 5: You know what's interesting here, as we've seen in the 655 00:36:55,920 --> 00:36:59,960 Speaker 5: last couple of days according to a Shanghai metals market 656 00:37:00,160 --> 00:37:03,160 Speaker 5: to report their researcher in the space, that there was 657 00:37:03,200 --> 00:37:06,759 Speaker 5: sort of a rush for overseas buyers to buy up 658 00:37:06,800 --> 00:37:10,840 Speaker 5: as much Chinese gallium as they could, and then that 659 00:37:10,960 --> 00:37:14,280 Speaker 5: sort of dissipated. What's your take, what have you heard 660 00:37:14,680 --> 00:37:19,200 Speaker 5: from folks that are looking to buy these sorts of metals. 661 00:37:20,280 --> 00:37:26,080 Speaker 6: So usually these minor metals, they they are applied in 662 00:37:26,160 --> 00:37:30,000 Speaker 6: small quantities. You know, the volumes of sales are also 663 00:37:30,320 --> 00:37:33,480 Speaker 6: significantly lower compared for instance, with iron ore, which is 664 00:37:33,520 --> 00:37:37,239 Speaker 6: in the billions of times, and and so they they 665 00:37:37,280 --> 00:37:43,280 Speaker 6: tend to buy them and keep them in advance for 666 00:37:43,280 --> 00:37:47,200 Speaker 6: for threes to six months or more sometimes and so 667 00:37:47,440 --> 00:37:50,480 Speaker 6: probably that's what we saw. So they went in they 668 00:37:50,840 --> 00:37:54,319 Speaker 6: with the news. They they some some some traders and 669 00:37:54,520 --> 00:37:57,120 Speaker 6: some end users might have a stockpiled a little bit 670 00:37:57,160 --> 00:38:00,759 Speaker 6: more to extend whatever, you know, stock else they already have, 671 00:38:01,640 --> 00:38:04,000 Speaker 6: which led to an increase in the price of gallium, 672 00:38:04,320 --> 00:38:08,160 Speaker 6: and now they might just perhaps sit back and see 673 00:38:08,239 --> 00:38:12,720 Speaker 6: how this I guess right now a threat from China 674 00:38:13,320 --> 00:38:16,480 Speaker 6: will play out, and how US and the rest of 675 00:38:16,480 --> 00:38:18,319 Speaker 6: the world will respond to that. 676 00:38:18,640 --> 00:38:21,880 Speaker 4: And when you're talking about these potential chip curbs, my 677 00:38:21,960 --> 00:38:25,600 Speaker 4: ears perked up because as an equities reporter here at Bloomberg, obviously, 678 00:38:25,640 --> 00:38:27,440 Speaker 4: if you look at the Nasdaq one hundred up more 679 00:38:27,480 --> 00:38:29,440 Speaker 4: than forty percent, a lot of this was used to 680 00:38:30,160 --> 00:38:32,560 Speaker 4: buy AI in recent months. Not just that, but also 681 00:38:32,600 --> 00:38:35,880 Speaker 4: some margin when it comes to cost cutting pressures that 682 00:38:35,880 --> 00:38:37,680 Speaker 4: have helped some of those companies. But when you think 683 00:38:37,719 --> 00:38:40,520 Speaker 4: about AI in the companies you brought up ev makers 684 00:38:40,560 --> 00:38:43,120 Speaker 4: and then these semiconductor type companies that obviously have a 685 00:38:43,120 --> 00:38:47,239 Speaker 4: broad exposure overseas, what do you think this means for them? 686 00:38:47,360 --> 00:38:50,200 Speaker 4: After this massive rally that we've seen, especially in the 687 00:38:50,280 --> 00:38:51,200 Speaker 4: chip space. 688 00:38:52,400 --> 00:38:57,040 Speaker 6: Well, it seems that there has been some issues with 689 00:38:57,120 --> 00:39:00,799 Speaker 6: the supply of chips in the last couple of years, 690 00:39:00,960 --> 00:39:05,560 Speaker 6: especially since since COVID so this export ban. Considering that 691 00:39:05,680 --> 00:39:08,840 Speaker 6: China produces most of the galum in the world, I 692 00:39:08,840 --> 00:39:12,520 Speaker 6: believe more than ninety percent. If if they will impose 693 00:39:12,719 --> 00:39:15,600 Speaker 6: export restrictions, that means that many of these companies are 694 00:39:15,600 --> 00:39:20,279 Speaker 6: not going to have access to the basic material that 695 00:39:20,320 --> 00:39:22,759 Speaker 6: they need to make to make those chips. So that 696 00:39:22,920 --> 00:39:28,239 Speaker 6: will lead to potentially an increase in prices for these 697 00:39:28,320 --> 00:39:33,640 Speaker 6: chips and supply issues, and so it just will mean that, 698 00:39:33,800 --> 00:39:37,279 Speaker 6: you know, the same problems we saw before. Automakers are 699 00:39:37,280 --> 00:39:39,799 Speaker 6: not going to be able to make certain models, and 700 00:39:39,800 --> 00:39:43,040 Speaker 6: and uh, you know, and folks and the tele communications 701 00:39:43,040 --> 00:39:47,000 Speaker 6: smartphone smartphone producers and others might have a hard time 702 00:39:48,239 --> 00:39:50,520 Speaker 6: producing their products. 703 00:39:50,920 --> 00:39:54,640 Speaker 5: You know, we have some reporting out suggesting that these 704 00:39:54,760 --> 00:39:59,920 Speaker 5: export controls could potentially backfire. Your take on that. 705 00:40:01,520 --> 00:40:03,160 Speaker 6: Backfire for for China? 706 00:40:03,200 --> 00:40:07,919 Speaker 5: For China, yes, that I suppose other countries will ramp 707 00:40:08,000 --> 00:40:10,840 Speaker 5: up their production to the extent that they can that 708 00:40:10,880 --> 00:40:13,799 Speaker 5: it may hurt trade overall. What's your take? 709 00:40:15,760 --> 00:40:18,920 Speaker 6: I think China is more concerned about having access to 710 00:40:19,040 --> 00:40:22,439 Speaker 6: advanced chips right now and and equipment that they need 711 00:40:22,520 --> 00:40:27,840 Speaker 6: to make them as well than the supply of gallium. 712 00:40:27,920 --> 00:40:31,839 Speaker 6: So I think they they understand that it will take 713 00:40:31,920 --> 00:40:35,000 Speaker 6: time for the rest of the world to be able 714 00:40:35,040 --> 00:40:40,040 Speaker 6: to produce the gallium and the gallium product products like 715 00:40:40,280 --> 00:40:45,279 Speaker 6: gallium arsenide that we need for for for to make 716 00:40:45,320 --> 00:40:48,640 Speaker 6: these advanced chips. So it is it will take time 717 00:40:48,760 --> 00:40:51,360 Speaker 6: for the rest of the world to be able to 718 00:40:51,520 --> 00:40:55,640 Speaker 6: ramp up production of gallium and then build the supply 719 00:40:55,800 --> 00:40:58,719 Speaker 6: chain to be able to produce these finished products that 720 00:40:58,800 --> 00:41:03,880 Speaker 6: are critical for semi conductors. So the situation for China 721 00:41:04,000 --> 00:41:06,440 Speaker 6: is already critical for them as far as having access 722 00:41:06,480 --> 00:41:13,080 Speaker 6: to this equipment to make chips, advanced chips, and the 723 00:41:13,160 --> 00:41:15,200 Speaker 6: chips you know as well that there are produced in 724 00:41:15,239 --> 00:41:18,480 Speaker 6: the Netherlands in the United States. 725 00:41:18,880 --> 00:41:22,279 Speaker 5: Lisa, thanks so much for breaking this down for us. 726 00:41:22,320 --> 00:41:26,360 Speaker 5: That's doctor Lisa Moreno, President of Defense Medals Corp, discussing 727 00:41:26,400 --> 00:41:30,000 Speaker 5: the significance of some of these China moves, and interestingly, 728 00:41:30,040 --> 00:41:33,720 Speaker 5: the OECD has warned that these expert restrictions may actually 729 00:41:33,800 --> 00:41:39,600 Speaker 5: threaten the green transition. Very interesting stuff, as these China 730 00:41:39,760 --> 00:41:41,920 Speaker 5: tensions with the US seem to ramp up. 731 00:41:42,160 --> 00:41:45,279 Speaker 7: You're listening to the tape. Can's our live program Bloomberg 732 00:41:45,320 --> 00:41:48,920 Speaker 7: Markets weekdays at ten am Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the 733 00:41:48,960 --> 00:41:52,200 Speaker 7: tune in app, Bloomberg dot Com, and the Bloomberg Business App. 734 00:41:52,239 --> 00:41:55,080 Speaker 7: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our 735 00:41:55,080 --> 00:42:00,120 Speaker 7: flagship New York station, Just Say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven thirty. 736 00:42:00,920 --> 00:42:04,360 Speaker 4: Jessminton and Simone Foxman here once again in the Bloomberg 737 00:42:04,440 --> 00:42:07,680 Speaker 4: Interactive Brokers Studio. And I always love this segment, the 738 00:42:07,719 --> 00:42:10,920 Speaker 4: c Suite Conversations, that really gets into the notes and 739 00:42:10,960 --> 00:42:13,080 Speaker 4: bolts of especially when you think about what's going on 740 00:42:13,120 --> 00:42:14,719 Speaker 4: with the Fortune five hundred. So, who want to get 741 00:42:14,719 --> 00:42:18,440 Speaker 4: straight to our next guest, Tiger Tia Garajen, CEO of 742 00:42:18,520 --> 00:42:21,560 Speaker 4: gin Pack, that's ticker Simple G for our terminal users, 743 00:42:21,640 --> 00:42:24,080 Speaker 4: who's joining us in studio on this Friday, which is 744 00:42:24,160 --> 00:42:26,400 Speaker 4: very exciting. Always great to have someone in the studio 745 00:42:26,640 --> 00:42:30,719 Speaker 4: to discuss his company as well as AI's emergence. And 746 00:42:30,760 --> 00:42:33,040 Speaker 4: I want to take a step back first to sort 747 00:42:33,040 --> 00:42:35,279 Speaker 4: of show us the landscape of what your company does 748 00:42:35,600 --> 00:42:37,520 Speaker 4: in who you work with, because I know you are 749 00:42:37,560 --> 00:42:40,600 Speaker 4: working with a number of big Fortune five hundred companies. 750 00:42:41,440 --> 00:42:42,759 Speaker 3: Great, thank you for having me here. 751 00:42:42,840 --> 00:42:45,360 Speaker 12: And the way we would describe our company is a 752 00:42:45,400 --> 00:42:48,480 Speaker 12: professional services firm that works with about three quarters of 753 00:42:48,480 --> 00:42:51,120 Speaker 12: the Fortune five hundred companies. So think about a consumer 754 00:42:51,120 --> 00:42:54,799 Speaker 12: goods company, a retailer, large banks, large insurance companies, and 755 00:42:54,840 --> 00:42:59,920 Speaker 12: what we do for them is basically processing their finance, 756 00:43:00,320 --> 00:43:04,320 Speaker 12: their precurement, their supply chain, the flow of information to 757 00:43:04,480 --> 00:43:09,080 Speaker 12: make orders get delivered, to make inventory come down, to 758 00:43:09,239 --> 00:43:14,360 Speaker 12: reduce cash flow requirements, to improve working capital, to reduce fraud, 759 00:43:14,400 --> 00:43:18,239 Speaker 12: and insurance claims. We process insurance claims, we process insurance applications. 760 00:43:19,160 --> 00:43:20,680 Speaker 12: That's the work that we do, and we do it 761 00:43:20,680 --> 00:43:23,040 Speaker 12: in a very consolidated way. What then allows us to 762 00:43:23,040 --> 00:43:25,400 Speaker 12: bring technology to improve the way it gets done and 763 00:43:25,440 --> 00:43:26,480 Speaker 12: deliver better outcomes. 764 00:43:26,640 --> 00:43:29,440 Speaker 5: So essentially the grunt work of doing a lot of well, 765 00:43:29,480 --> 00:43:33,520 Speaker 5: well you know, I mean, it means that somebody does 766 00:43:33,560 --> 00:43:35,520 Speaker 5: not have to sit there and open their email or 767 00:43:36,840 --> 00:43:41,600 Speaker 5: we hear we've heard over the last earnings season, every 768 00:43:41,680 --> 00:43:44,719 Speaker 5: time a CEO would say AI on an earnings call, 769 00:43:44,760 --> 00:43:47,080 Speaker 5: it felt like, you know, suddenly the shares had popped. 770 00:43:46,880 --> 00:43:51,160 Speaker 4: Or even Kroger mentioned it eight times, So not even 771 00:43:51,200 --> 00:43:53,000 Speaker 4: just tech companies anywhere, and talk to. 772 00:43:53,040 --> 00:43:56,440 Speaker 5: Me about what you've been hearing. When you've heard, you know, 773 00:43:56,520 --> 00:44:00,319 Speaker 5: these executives talk about AI. Are they talking about stuff 774 00:44:00,400 --> 00:44:05,200 Speaker 5: that is going to meaningfully impact and change their business today, 775 00:44:05,320 --> 00:44:07,319 Speaker 5: tomorrow or perhaps the next year. 776 00:44:08,320 --> 00:44:09,480 Speaker 3: So it's a great question, Simon. 777 00:44:09,560 --> 00:44:12,200 Speaker 12: So the good news that for us is that not 778 00:44:12,239 --> 00:44:14,319 Speaker 12: only do we listen to them when they come on 779 00:44:14,360 --> 00:44:19,000 Speaker 12: to Bloomberg Radio and talk, but we actually meet them 780 00:44:19,120 --> 00:44:19,760 Speaker 12: a lot. 781 00:44:19,640 --> 00:44:20,720 Speaker 3: Because we serve them. 782 00:44:21,080 --> 00:44:24,359 Speaker 12: And I would say, clearly, there is hype, so let's 783 00:44:24,400 --> 00:44:28,520 Speaker 12: be clear, this is a hype. However it's real. And 784 00:44:28,680 --> 00:44:30,040 Speaker 12: you know, the way I would think about it is 785 00:44:30,040 --> 00:44:33,319 Speaker 12: that if you think about the cell phone and iPhone, 786 00:44:33,360 --> 00:44:36,759 Speaker 12: if you think about the Internet, those were hypes but 787 00:44:36,840 --> 00:44:39,120 Speaker 12: it did end up being real. So, like any hype, 788 00:44:39,280 --> 00:44:42,839 Speaker 12: in the short term, I think we are overestimating its impact. 789 00:44:43,160 --> 00:44:44,919 Speaker 12: But in the medium term, and the medium term could 790 00:44:44,920 --> 00:44:47,120 Speaker 12: not be more than a couple of years, we have 791 00:44:47,280 --> 00:44:48,640 Speaker 12: maybe underestimating the impact. 792 00:44:48,680 --> 00:44:51,240 Speaker 3: And that's what every conversation with the CEOs say. 793 00:44:51,080 --> 00:44:54,839 Speaker 4: Well, we're talking about overestimating the impact from what perspective 794 00:44:54,880 --> 00:44:57,120 Speaker 4: as far as what about from a stock market perspective? 795 00:44:57,120 --> 00:45:00,320 Speaker 4: When you've seen how much particular chip makers have moved 796 00:45:00,000 --> 00:45:02,880 Speaker 4: move on a lot of this hype. Is that something 797 00:45:02,920 --> 00:45:04,480 Speaker 4: that you think has been overdone or do you think 798 00:45:04,480 --> 00:45:07,520 Speaker 4: it's more not from that perspective, but from maybe even 799 00:45:07,800 --> 00:45:09,080 Speaker 4: more fundamental perspective. 800 00:45:09,160 --> 00:45:11,840 Speaker 12: Yeah, I'm assuming that the stock market moves less on 801 00:45:11,920 --> 00:45:15,719 Speaker 12: short term and more on long term. So therefore it 802 00:45:15,800 --> 00:45:19,759 Speaker 12: might actually be the right move because computing needs, you know, 803 00:45:19,800 --> 00:45:22,480 Speaker 12: therefore semi connective needs. Therefore power of all of that 804 00:45:22,600 --> 00:45:25,000 Speaker 12: is going to the demand for that is certainly going 805 00:45:25,040 --> 00:45:28,520 Speaker 12: to go up a lot. For our clients, it typically 806 00:45:28,520 --> 00:45:30,880 Speaker 12: boils down to where's the biggest impact I can deliver 807 00:45:31,280 --> 00:45:33,120 Speaker 12: and what do I need to make that happen. Clearly, 808 00:45:33,200 --> 00:45:36,920 Speaker 12: large language models and AI models are very important, but 809 00:45:37,040 --> 00:45:40,680 Speaker 12: guess what you need data, And if you talk to 810 00:45:40,920 --> 00:45:45,320 Speaker 12: typical large enterprises, that data is distributed, it's fragmented, it's corrupted, 811 00:45:45,640 --> 00:45:48,440 Speaker 12: it's not clean. So there's a lot of effort that 812 00:45:48,560 --> 00:45:51,520 Speaker 12: needs to bring that together to then be able to 813 00:45:51,640 --> 00:45:55,080 Speaker 12: build and feed the algorithms that then deliver great value. 814 00:45:55,239 --> 00:45:58,919 Speaker 12: And I think most CEOs understand that. However, they also 815 00:45:59,040 --> 00:46:02,520 Speaker 12: know that once they get that together, then it's real value. 816 00:46:02,600 --> 00:46:07,319 Speaker 12: It's improving their revenue, it's improving their customer satisfaction, it's 817 00:46:07,480 --> 00:46:10,680 Speaker 12: improving their ability to serve their customers on time and full. 818 00:46:10,960 --> 00:46:12,560 Speaker 5: Is most of the work that you're doing on the 819 00:46:12,600 --> 00:46:16,480 Speaker 5: back end from the company perspective, or is any of 820 00:46:16,520 --> 00:46:18,719 Speaker 5: this as much of this and how much are you 821 00:46:18,800 --> 00:46:22,080 Speaker 5: seeing this increase on the consumer facing end? 822 00:46:22,440 --> 00:46:25,960 Speaker 12: So someone actually, interestingly, you know, our business about half 823 00:46:26,000 --> 00:46:27,480 Speaker 12: of it faces the. 824 00:46:27,360 --> 00:46:29,880 Speaker 3: Front of our client's businesses. 825 00:46:29,960 --> 00:46:34,400 Speaker 12: So if you think about a retailer, large retailers placing 826 00:46:34,440 --> 00:46:39,360 Speaker 12: an order for cheese or for chocolate, then how quickly 827 00:46:39,600 --> 00:46:42,960 Speaker 12: can that order get delivered? Can there ort to be 828 00:46:43,000 --> 00:46:45,840 Speaker 12: delivered not only quickly, but exactly the way it was ordered? 829 00:46:46,440 --> 00:46:49,840 Speaker 12: And can you make sure that it gets delivered with 830 00:46:50,000 --> 00:46:52,360 Speaker 12: a high degree of efficiency of delivery in terms of 831 00:46:52,360 --> 00:46:55,839 Speaker 12: transportation cost logistics or by the way, these days, can 832 00:46:55,880 --> 00:46:58,040 Speaker 12: you actually make sure that you don't burn up too 833 00:46:58,120 --> 00:47:01,080 Speaker 12: much carbon when you're moving trucks across and how do 834 00:47:01,120 --> 00:47:03,279 Speaker 12: you optimize all of that? How do you build algorithms 835 00:47:03,280 --> 00:47:05,920 Speaker 12: and models that actually deliver that. Once you do that, 836 00:47:06,440 --> 00:47:09,600 Speaker 12: the consumer goods company expects to be paid on time. 837 00:47:10,239 --> 00:47:13,640 Speaker 12: So if you think about that whole cycle, that's all 838 00:47:13,640 --> 00:47:17,080 Speaker 12: in the front end. When done well, everyone is thrilled. 839 00:47:17,440 --> 00:47:19,879 Speaker 12: So this is about driving growth and customer satisfaction because 840 00:47:19,920 --> 00:47:22,200 Speaker 12: then that cheese is available when the consumer walks into 841 00:47:22,200 --> 00:47:23,040 Speaker 12: the retailer. 842 00:47:24,000 --> 00:47:26,399 Speaker 4: I wanted to actually switch it up because I wanted 843 00:47:26,440 --> 00:47:28,680 Speaker 4: to get your perspective on a key emerging market when 844 00:47:28,680 --> 00:47:30,600 Speaker 4: it comes to India. That's something that we've discussed a 845 00:47:30,640 --> 00:47:33,319 Speaker 4: lot on this program. What are your thoughts as for 846 00:47:33,440 --> 00:47:36,239 Speaker 4: as just how big of a player that has been 847 00:47:36,320 --> 00:47:38,120 Speaker 4: for a lot of especially big companies. 848 00:47:38,880 --> 00:47:43,000 Speaker 12: It's huge for us from a talent perspective. Let's start 849 00:47:43,040 --> 00:47:47,200 Speaker 12: with that more than forty percent of our talent, close 850 00:47:47,239 --> 00:47:51,480 Speaker 12: to fifty percent of our talent is based on India. 851 00:47:52,080 --> 00:47:54,560 Speaker 12: And that goes back to the history of the company 852 00:47:54,560 --> 00:47:56,000 Speaker 12: when we were part of g when we set up 853 00:47:56,040 --> 00:47:59,840 Speaker 12: this operation as an extension of GE to serve global 854 00:47:59,840 --> 00:48:03,080 Speaker 12: g from India. Now we deliver those services from thirty 855 00:48:03,120 --> 00:48:05,840 Speaker 12: five countries across the globe. So India is incredibly important, 856 00:48:05,840 --> 00:48:08,279 Speaker 12: but so are many other countries. The talent pool is 857 00:48:08,360 --> 00:48:11,960 Speaker 12: India is incredibly important as we go into the future. 858 00:48:12,320 --> 00:48:15,879 Speaker 12: The fact that you have a younger demographic and when 859 00:48:15,880 --> 00:48:18,600 Speaker 12: they come out, they are hungry to learn, and we 860 00:48:18,640 --> 00:48:22,000 Speaker 12: are in a world where learning and reskilling is going 861 00:48:22,080 --> 00:48:25,399 Speaker 12: to be the ticket to everyone's party. So we use 862 00:48:25,440 --> 00:48:27,240 Speaker 12: that and leverage that for our clients, and our clients 863 00:48:27,320 --> 00:48:30,160 Speaker 12: understand that there is a different perspective about India being 864 00:48:30,160 --> 00:48:34,440 Speaker 12: a market itself and that demographic population creates a real opportunity. 865 00:48:34,480 --> 00:48:37,320 Speaker 12: And the third one is how much can India becoming 866 00:48:37,360 --> 00:48:40,920 Speaker 12: a manufacturer base to diversify out of just being focused 867 00:48:40,960 --> 00:48:41,440 Speaker 12: on China. 868 00:48:42,040 --> 00:48:44,760 Speaker 5: We have about a minute here. We've seen this dramatic 869 00:48:44,840 --> 00:48:49,120 Speaker 5: one up and shares and things like Nvidia, the demand 870 00:48:49,120 --> 00:48:53,640 Speaker 5: for semiconductors right now, it feels like an exuberance, but 871 00:48:53,920 --> 00:48:58,799 Speaker 5: how significant do you think this will be having more 872 00:48:58,840 --> 00:49:04,320 Speaker 5: semiconductors these put parts? Is the is the dramatic rally 873 00:49:04,320 --> 00:49:05,280 Speaker 5: we've seen warranted. 874 00:49:05,480 --> 00:49:07,400 Speaker 12: So again, I'll give you a longer term perspective some 875 00:49:07,440 --> 00:49:10,279 Speaker 12: on because you know, I'm not here to predict and crystal. 876 00:49:09,960 --> 00:49:14,120 Speaker 3: Ball, but your best sense, this is real, This is real. 877 00:49:14,480 --> 00:49:15,239 Speaker 3: AI is real. 878 00:49:15,480 --> 00:49:17,960 Speaker 12: AI will need computing power, AI will need data, a 879 00:49:18,040 --> 00:49:20,719 Speaker 12: I will need change in organizations, a I will need 880 00:49:20,760 --> 00:49:23,839 Speaker 12: reskilling of people. Anyone who's engaged in any of these 881 00:49:23,880 --> 00:49:26,600 Speaker 12: topics is really going to create value for themselves, for 882 00:49:26,640 --> 00:49:30,200 Speaker 12: their shareholders, for their customers, and actually to improve society. 883 00:49:30,239 --> 00:49:32,640 Speaker 12: The fact that you can have people leverage education and 884 00:49:32,680 --> 00:49:35,319 Speaker 12: healthcare at almost zero costs, which is going to become 885 00:49:35,360 --> 00:49:38,000 Speaker 12: real overtime, is something to really look forward to. 886 00:49:38,480 --> 00:49:40,480 Speaker 4: Well, thank you so much for joining us. It's such 887 00:49:40,520 --> 00:49:43,520 Speaker 4: a great perspective to get things on not just emerging markets, 888 00:49:43,520 --> 00:49:46,160 Speaker 4: but then also about whether AI is just hyper if 889 00:49:46,160 --> 00:49:48,239 Speaker 4: there's more to it here. So really great to get 890 00:49:48,239 --> 00:49:50,600 Speaker 4: your perspective as well as the Fortune five hundred companies 891 00:49:50,640 --> 00:49:51,279 Speaker 4: that you work with. 892 00:49:53,840 --> 00:49:56,920 Speaker 1: Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Markets podcast. You can 893 00:49:56,960 --> 00:50:00,720 Speaker 1: subscribe and listen to interviews in Apple Podcasts or whatever 894 00:50:00,800 --> 00:50:04,520 Speaker 1: podcast platform you prefer. I'm Matt Miller. I'm on Twitter 895 00:50:04,719 --> 00:50:07,960 Speaker 1: at Matt Miller nineteen seventy three. And I'm fall Sweeney. 896 00:50:08,000 --> 00:50:09,560 Speaker 8: I'm on Twitter at pt Sweeney. 897 00:50:09,600 --> 00:50:12,279 Speaker 1: Before the podcast, you can always catch us worldwide at 898 00:50:12,280 --> 00:50:14,040 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Radio