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Speaker 1: Global business news twenty four hours a day at Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: dot com, the radio plus mobile act and on your radio,

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Speaker 1: this is a Bloomberg Business Flash and I'm Karen Mostow.

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Speaker 1: There's updates rossy. You buy sector spider e t F

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Speaker 1: so I buy a single stock and you can invest

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Speaker 1: in the entire sector. Visits sector spd r s dot

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Speaker 1: com are called six six sector et F stocks are

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Speaker 1: rising with commodities where the end and government bonds slip

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Speaker 1: as oil's advance about forty dollars of barrel boost economic optimism.

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Speaker 1: We checked the markets every fifteen minutes throughout the trading day.

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Speaker 1: On Bloomberg. The S and P five hundred is up

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Speaker 1: about four tenths percent or seven points. At nine Dow

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Speaker 1: Jones industrial average is up half percent or eighty two points,

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Speaker 1: or seventeen thousand, six hundred thirty nine. The nastacts up

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Speaker 1: a tenth of upper cent or five points, to forty

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Speaker 1: thirty eight. Ten year Treasury down eleven thirty seconds, the

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Speaker 1: yield one point seven six percent. The yield on the

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Speaker 1: two year points seven two percent. NIMEX crude oil up

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Speaker 1: one two per cent or fifty cents, to forty five

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Speaker 1: cents of barrel called MIxS gold is up a tenth

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Speaker 1: of upper center a dollar sixty to twelve fifty nine

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Speaker 1: sixty announced the euro a dollar eighty two. The end

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Speaker 1: one oh eight point four five, activist investor try and

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Speaker 1: Fund Management agreed to sell its nine point nine percent

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Speaker 1: stake and money manager Leg Mason to Shanda Group, a Singapore,

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Speaker 1: Singapore based investing holding company. US small business optimism declining

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Speaker 1: in March, according to the National Federation of Independent Business,

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Speaker 1: The organization's monthly Small Business Optimism Index, about the ninety

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Speaker 1: two point six last month get bared to ninety two

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Speaker 1: point nine in February, and that's a bloomberg business flash.

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Speaker 1: Tom and Mike Karen, thanks so much. We're gonna get

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Speaker 1: to Mark Chandley here at a moment, Mike McKie very quickly.

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Speaker 1: I want to go through this. It's it's something in

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Speaker 1: sports when it's seventy two years ago. Seventy two years ago,

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Speaker 1: a lot was going on in World War Two. It

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Speaker 1: was the absolute heart of it, particularly a lot of

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Speaker 1: U boat sinkings in the Atlantic. It was also the

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Speaker 1: last time at this the Baltimore Orioles when four and

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Speaker 1: ohs five and oh six and oh they were nine

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Speaker 1: and oh was the St. Louis Brown's in And they're

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Speaker 1: doing that right now. They play the Red Sox tonight.

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Speaker 1: I think that would happen. It's very cool. I mean

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Speaker 1: it's very very cool on Angels in the arias they're

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Speaker 1: starting out. I believe we're gonna talk world basic. He's

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Speaker 1: been looking so heavy. Yes, yes, there was a number

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Speaker 1: of there they're twisted there, they're not under medication. But

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Speaker 1: that's too much to ask for. But but there's a

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Speaker 1: lot of therapy for Orioles fans. One for you here

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Speaker 1: today today, sixty one this day, Yes, made his Boston Red.

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Speaker 1: Oh and it was so interesting. As a child, we

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Speaker 1: hated him because he replaced, because he wasn't the sainted one.

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Speaker 1: He was hated for years until he earned it. Somebody

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Speaker 1: once told me, much more knowledgeable than me, that nobody

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Speaker 1: worked at it every day is hard. It's just name.

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Speaker 1: There was that too. I still can't spell it to this.

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Speaker 1: I met his son once on Cape cod A total classic,

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Speaker 1: Total total Classic. Also a class act is Mark Chandler.

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Speaker 1: He has given us immense wisdom. Mark thrilled debut one

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Speaker 1: with Brown Brothers Harriman a number of books on foreign

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Speaker 1: exchange mark you are the leader in saying be careful

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Speaker 1: of looking at trade weighted analysis when you look at yen,

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Speaker 1: what's the proper pair to use now dollar yen? I

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Speaker 1: assume I don't look at Japanese trade weighted again, what

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Speaker 1: do I look at? The judge the failure of obbynomics.

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Speaker 1: Good question. I would look at actually wages in Japan ebonomics.

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Speaker 1: Assume that the whole whole eponomics works only if we

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Speaker 1: just go up and we just have not written but

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Speaker 1: it's broadly speaking at just before we go about the agend,

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Speaker 1: I was just hoping you guys can say something about

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Speaker 1: my Chicago cubs, which this could be the year books.

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Speaker 1: But you know, yeah, I find the yen is one

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Speaker 1: of the most so the conundrum. As an analyst, I

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Speaker 1: often expected to be able to come up with the

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Speaker 1: narrative that either explains the predicts currency movement, and I

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Speaker 1: find the yen strength really be fuddling. Uh. They cut

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Speaker 1: interest rates, negative interest rates. You're talking about economy that

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Speaker 1: is barely growing if at all. You're talking about a

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Speaker 1: country that's got deflation. You've got a country in which investors.

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Speaker 1: Japanese themselves have bought already this year roughly a hundred

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Speaker 1: billion dollars worth of foreign assets, and yet the yend

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Speaker 1: can't they catch a bid of Today is the first

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Speaker 1: day this month that dollar yen is taking out the

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Speaker 1: previous days high. Not by a lot, but perhaps the

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Speaker 1: perhaps it's turning well. You know. The question with Japan

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Speaker 1: is that they were criticized for years for not doing enough.

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Speaker 1: Then uh Prime Minister already comes to office and brings

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Speaker 1: in Haka Corona to run the Bank of Japan and

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Speaker 1: they throw the book at the economy. They get nowhere,

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Speaker 1: I mean, what's left? Yeah, well I think they I

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Speaker 1: would say, they really haven't town the book at it yet.

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Speaker 1: They've done monetary policy, They've done a fiscal policy as

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Speaker 1: much as you would expect the country with about to

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Speaker 1: g d P able to do. But they really haven't done.

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Speaker 1: And this is I think where the US and the

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Speaker 1: G seven have complained about it is too much reliance

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Speaker 1: on this monetary policy, not enough on the third era

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Speaker 1: of ebonomic structural reforms. Mark um I just did a

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Speaker 1: regression a trend of the strong en from November of

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Speaker 1: last year. We're basically have touched two standard deviations in

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Speaker 1: April twice extra extra strong en. The center tendency is

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Speaker 1: to try to get back to about a one ten.

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Speaker 1: I'm saying, what will be the impulse to do what

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Speaker 1: Mr Abbe wants? How do they reverse en strength? Yeah,

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Speaker 1: I think that the jetty that a tough position, and

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Speaker 1: because I think that some people in Japan want to intervene,

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Speaker 1: and a lot of my friends who have been talking

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Speaker 1: about currency wars, they've been they've been warning people that

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Speaker 1: the b o J could intervene since the middle of February.

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Speaker 1: I am not a believer the currency wars. I think

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Speaker 1: that there is an effect that Arms Control Agreement where

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Speaker 1: the major countries say, yes, we could use currencies as

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Speaker 1: a trained weapon. But let's agree not to the fact

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Speaker 1: that the Japanese have not intervened. It seems to me

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Speaker 1: to boast of my case that there really is an

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Speaker 1: a currency war going on. The bar to Japanese intervention

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Speaker 1: is quite high, and I think that with the Japanese,

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Speaker 1: I think are counting on is for the selling of

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Speaker 1: the dollar y the buying of the yen to exhaust itself.

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Speaker 1: You know, this big leg down took place only this month,

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Speaker 1: and I just was looking at a cool function on Bloomberg.

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Speaker 1: There's allowed to be a new function se a G

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Speaker 1: which is for seasonal patterns, and I find that the

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Speaker 1: yen typically as the crisis, has strengthened in the month

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Speaker 1: of April, and that's five out of the past seven

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Speaker 1: years strengthened in April, just like most of the time,

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Speaker 1: it is weekend in March. So I'm thinking that the

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Speaker 1: what's happened is that we've got these petrolial flows leaving Japan.

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Speaker 1: We've got speculators buying the end. The one piece that

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Speaker 1: seems to be missing in from my Tokyo context, they

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Speaker 1: tell me that Japanese multinationals have begun the new fiscal year,

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Speaker 1: which began of course April one, repat treating some of

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Speaker 1: their foreign earnings, and that this may have exhausted themselves right,

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Speaker 1: slowed down a bit in time for we get the

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Speaker 1: I m F meetings in Washington this week, and then

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Speaker 1: of course the Japanese hosted G seven meeting next month,

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Speaker 1: so I would be looking for a dollar a end

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Speaker 1: to stabilize ahead of UH the end of this month

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Speaker 1: when we get the Federal Reserve meeting. There I think

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Speaker 1: the Federal Reserve is if the Federal Reserve is going

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Speaker 1: to keep open a June rate hike, which something like

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Speaker 1: economists expect. They have to sound somewhat less dovish in

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Speaker 1: the April statement headlines coming full and fast w I

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Speaker 1: m F headlines of course a bit ago. We'll get

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Speaker 1: to that with Mark Chandler. But Mark Mr Scheibler speaking

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Speaker 1: and he is not mincing words. Fiscal monetary policy largely

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Speaker 1: exhausted globally. Mr Schobler of Germany quite sure Greek crisis

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Speaker 1: won't be repeated this year. He doesn't see the e

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Speaker 1: c B seriously discussing helicopter money. Where does Germany fit

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Speaker 1: in the eurodynamics right now? We've got a big move

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Speaker 1: weaker euro over the last two hours one thirteen seventy

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Speaker 1: seven right now, Yeah, I think that, you know, there's

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Speaker 1: I think that the tug of war. I mean Germany clearly,

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Speaker 1: including the BUNDHSPAINK does not like how easy ECB policy is,

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Speaker 1: and we knew that the hand YEP. On the other hand,

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Speaker 1: I wonder if part of this is Germany's responsibility. If

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Speaker 1: Germany would have expanded fiscal policy given that they can

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Speaker 1: borrow at negative interest rates, expand fiscal policy to offset

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Speaker 1: the tightening in other parts of Europe. Maybe maybe the

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Speaker 1: ECB would not be the a game in town. I

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Speaker 1: do think that, and this is the G seven of

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Speaker 1: argument argued the I m F has argued that there

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Speaker 1: is room for more fiscal expansion from Germany. They're running

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Speaker 1: a balanced budget. They could afford to run a small

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Speaker 1: deficit and that would probably take some pressure off monetary policy.

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Speaker 1: But I think Europe is in a tough position. I

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Speaker 1: think that the crisis of financial crisis, political crisis we're

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Speaker 1: gonna pop back up there towards the end of the

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Speaker 1: quarter will have not only Brexit, which some people think

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Speaker 1: that you can leave the EU, it could really jeopardize

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Speaker 1: the E MU and I'll see it looks like you

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Speaker 1: can have a Spanish election within a few days of

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Speaker 1: the Brexit referendum. And this is all leaving Greece aside

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Speaker 1: the fact that UH Ireland and UH Slovakia still have

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Speaker 1: informed a government after their elections. I think that these

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Speaker 1: political problems will come back and haunt the Euro. And

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Speaker 1: so I'd say that the strong euro they're gonna be

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Speaker 1: choking on. The strong euro sooner or later. Chandler from

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Speaker 1: Brown Brothers Herman is going to be an interesting ECB

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Speaker 1: meeting when when I mean I m F World Banking

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Speaker 1: excuse me, which brings us to bring G seven into

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Speaker 1: it this weekend, Mark Chamber, thank you so much. With

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Speaker 1: Brown Brothers, Harriman with you were a real trend. We're

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Speaker 1: seeing of weaker dollars stronger and we've had to shift

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Speaker 1: here last two hours. D x Y No. Nine point

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Speaker 1: two two has been a reversal dollar strength over the

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Speaker 1: last two hours. Mike, we're having so much fun. I

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Speaker 1: didn't realize the show was over. No producer, I'm like,

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Speaker 1: we're not going to y you. Who's next? Yeah, Well,

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Speaker 1: it has been an interesting day and we thank all

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Speaker 1: of our guests. It is going to get even evermore so.

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Speaker 1: As we moved towards the as I said, as we

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Speaker 1: moved towards the I m F World Bank meetings, we

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Speaker 1: have the we OH out this morning. The world economic

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Speaker 1: I look rather depressing and on your date calendar here

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Speaker 1: on April twelve, one ECB meeting and then onto what

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Speaker 1: is the is the FED meeting as well? So two

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Speaker 1: big central bank meetings coming up. Of course, we'll look

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Speaker 1: at a lot of other things going on Yahoo. I

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Speaker 1: didn't even mention to day Yahoo showing some stability thirty

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Speaker 1: six dollars forty eight since on Yahoo. We are produced

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Speaker 1: by Yu and Ken Fellow, a global technical director Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: Surveillance