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Speaker 1: So let's get nowt to our guests. CRUs Tantia, senior

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Speaker 1: investment strategist to Credit Swiss, joining us on the line

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Speaker 1: from Singapore. So much, I guess kind of bad news

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Speaker 1: out there, Serrostion, I wanted to ask you as well

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Speaker 1: about Europe and what we're seeing with the gas was

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Speaker 1: there because there is some kind of indication that this

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Speaker 1: crisis is just as big as what we're seeing in

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Speaker 1: terms of the fair in terms of the outlook for

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Speaker 1: the dollar, in terms of the outlook as well for

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Speaker 1: the global economy. Just how much of a of a

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Speaker 1: concern is it that we are seeing that gas prompt

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Speaker 1: will not reopen that nord Stream one pipeline. Good morning,

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Speaker 1: juliet Um. I think a lot of concerned that the

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Speaker 1: pipeline might not reopen um, which should be really bad

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Speaker 1: news for Europe. Um. I think the open economies and

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Speaker 1: markets are in deep trouble. The global economy is always

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Speaker 1: slowing down, which are which is having impact on rpen

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Speaker 1: economies and markets. And on top of that, if energy

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Speaker 1: process remain high, it's gonna cost a lot of money

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Speaker 1: for consumers and companies to or to spend money and

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Speaker 1: operative businesses. So I see a lot of downside for

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Speaker 1: Uban assets. Whether it's a Euro or upen equari market,

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Speaker 1: I think both are likely to remain under pressure in

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Speaker 1: the short term. Yeah, it does look like the regional

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Speaker 1: outlook for the Euro are not great at the moment.

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Speaker 1: Your underweight equities in general, is it's just the broader

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Speaker 1: view of these concerns about the global economy. Yes, um,

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Speaker 1: I think there are two factors. One is that one,

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Speaker 1: it's very clear that US is not going to cut

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Speaker 1: rates anytime soon. Earlier there was a narrative that FED

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Speaker 1: could look look to cut rate next year, but given

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Speaker 1: the high inflation and the messaging from Jero Bubble, it's

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Speaker 1: very clear that FED will maintain three point five percent

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Speaker 1: to four percent kind of rates next year. Secondly, the

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Speaker 1: global economy is going down. We can see that in

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Speaker 1: the data in US, in Europe and in China as well.

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Speaker 1: So a combination of slowing economy and high interest rates

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Speaker 1: not good for the equity market. That's why we decided

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Speaker 1: to go underweight on equities. And looking pretty dire as

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Speaker 1: well for the bond market. We just heard from Bloomberg's

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Speaker 1: is Anna Palmer saying that it doesn't look like we

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Speaker 1: could say that rally come back in terms of what

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Speaker 1: we saw with the US jobs report. What are you

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Speaker 1: looking for in terms of I guess any kind of

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Speaker 1: positive science here on the economy. UM, I think economy

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Speaker 1: is going to slow down as interest rate remained high.

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Speaker 1: We have started to feel the page in the unimplement rate,

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Speaker 1: and also the consumer spending has been stowing down. We

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Speaker 1: can see that in the housing market as well. Housing

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Speaker 1: starts and housing sales have been slowing down. So I

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Speaker 1: think the trend is on the town site and the

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Speaker 1: next few quarters you will see weaker growth. UM. Definitely,

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Speaker 1: the bond market could remain under pressure as rates will

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Speaker 1: remain high. But for investors who are looking for safe

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Speaker 1: event places, I think they can start accumulating bonds, especially

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Speaker 1: the high grade bonds like investment grate Um. They are

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Speaker 1: yielding close to five percent UM, and even if you

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Speaker 1: see a recession, I think these bonds could be the

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Speaker 1: best place to be right now compared to what else

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Speaker 1: is available in the market. How many great hikes do

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Speaker 1: you have priced in from the FED by the end

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Speaker 1: of or I guess the middle of three. So we

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Speaker 1: are looking at the terminal FED fund rate of four

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Speaker 1: percent in the first quarter of next year, and um

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Speaker 1: I think FI is going to hide to that and

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Speaker 1: just stay there for two three So the key kushion

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Speaker 1: is where the FREDI is going to cut right next year.

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Speaker 1: I don't think that's going to happen. So we mentioned

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Speaker 1: broadly that you're an underweight on equities. When it comes

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Speaker 1: to the Asia picture in particular, though, is there a

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Speaker 1: sense that perhaps Asia can emerge faster from the downtown

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Speaker 1: because of softer inflation the end of the earnings downgrade cycle?

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Speaker 1: Where are you looking for opportunity here? I think the

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Speaker 1: Asian markets are also going to follow the US monk kids.

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Speaker 1: If US goes into the session and we see a

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Speaker 1: sell off on the US equity market, you are going

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Speaker 1: to see a sell off in Asian assets as well.

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Speaker 1: So that's why what we have done is closed our

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Speaker 1: overrad call on China equity market and the Asian equity markets.

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Speaker 1: Um I think the slowdown in global growth is not

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Speaker 1: good for Asian economies, especially the exporters. We can see

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Speaker 1: that in numbers for Korea, in Taiwan and even in

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Speaker 1: China as well, that export growth has been slowing down

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Speaker 1: and we are still seeing earning stounded for most of

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Speaker 1: the markets, so I think there's a lot more to

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Speaker 1: come in terms of the sell off in the market initia.

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Speaker 1: Similar to US, we're expecting this week to potentially more

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Speaker 1: see more weakness in the Chinese economy as well, when

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Speaker 1: we have some more data released there. How much of

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Speaker 1: a guess is a concern of the China slowdown story,

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Speaker 1: particularly when a couple with these changing lockdowns, I think

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Speaker 1: definitely it's a big concern for the markets, given that

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Speaker 1: the entire supply chain of the world is in China.

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Speaker 1: So if the lockdown measures are implemented, it will certainly

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Speaker 1: raise the expectations of high inflation in the US. And

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Speaker 1: again people would worried about high shipping caused and pressure

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Speaker 1: on the margins of the companies. So the China slowdown,

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Speaker 1: along with the zero COVID policy definitely will have impact

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Speaker 1: on the global assets, including China. You talk about supply

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Speaker 1: chain issues there. This is a bit of a crystal

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Speaker 1: ball question we're asking from m Live team this week,

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Speaker 1: but what would be the most significant shortage that the

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Speaker 1: global economy might see in the next twelve months. It

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Speaker 1: would be I think the consumer goods um what we

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Speaker 1: have seen in US all the consumer goes where it's

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Speaker 1: toys or textile products. Our shoes are all kinds of

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Speaker 1: electronic products. Uh, those were in shortage last year. Prices

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Speaker 1: went to the roof as the supply chain issues were

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Speaker 1: faced because of the lockdown measures in China. So I

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Speaker 1: think if the Chengo logan continues and you see most

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Speaker 1: cities coming under similar measures, then it's quite possible that

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Speaker 1: the prices of consumers could go up. Let's talk as

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Speaker 1: well about the weakness we're seeing in Asian currencies, which

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Speaker 1: is a reflection of dollar strength. Do you think that

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Speaker 1: it is likely we're going to see as significant moves

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Speaker 1: as we saw in the currency crisis in Asia. I

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Speaker 1: don't think we had that, uh, that kind of situation

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Speaker 1: because the balance sheets or the forest reserves of the

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Speaker 1: central banks in Asia are much stronger. UM. If you

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Speaker 1: look at the fragile five in emerging markets Brazil, Turkey,

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Speaker 1: in the India, Indonesia and South Africa, they are the

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Speaker 1: best performing equery market in e M this year. UM.

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Speaker 1: So despite a dollar strength UM and also the impact

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Speaker 1: of the higher commodity prices. I think the Asian financial

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Speaker 1: crisis kind of situation is highly unlikely because all the

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Speaker 1: countries have built up their forests of so you can

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Speaker 1: see in the Asia central banks have been entering into

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Speaker 1: the market to stabilize their currency. So you might see

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Speaker 1: some weakness in the currencies, but not to the extent

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Speaker 1: of what we saw in Asian financial crisis. So as

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Speaker 1: I gotta say, I'm selling this Monday a bit sad.

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Speaker 1: I mean, there's so much bad news out there. Is

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Speaker 1: there any positive call you have out there? And what

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Speaker 1: about tell in terms of the reopening across Asian Definitely,

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Speaker 1: I think the Aussian markets stand out. Um, it's given

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Speaker 1: the reopening team and the the later recovery that we

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Speaker 1: have seen. Um, South Asia is likely to outperform rest

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Speaker 1: of the Asian markets. So markets like Indonesia, Thailand, I

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Speaker 1: think they can do well going forward. And we are

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Speaker 1: from a currency perspective also we are looking at idea

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Speaker 1: which benefit from the higher commodity prices, so the currency

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Speaker 1: could appreciate against US T alright, always great to get

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Speaker 1: your insights. Thank you for joining us. Ours Tantier Senior

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Speaker 1: Investment Strategistic Credit Suite on the line from Singapore for

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Speaker 1: US