1 00:00:02,520 --> 00:00:07,040 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. 2 00:00:07,880 --> 00:00:10,240 Speaker 2: I want to welcome now our Bloomberg Radio and YouTube 3 00:00:10,280 --> 00:00:12,800 Speaker 2: audiences as we bring in our big guests this hour. 4 00:00:12,960 --> 00:00:15,080 Speaker 2: My co anchor for The Clothes Remain Boss It joins 5 00:00:15,160 --> 00:00:17,680 Speaker 2: us now as we sit down for an exclusive conversation 6 00:00:17,800 --> 00:00:21,560 Speaker 2: with Jim Chainos, President and founder of Chinos and Company. Jim, 7 00:00:21,600 --> 00:00:22,200 Speaker 2: welcome back. 8 00:00:22,360 --> 00:00:24,000 Speaker 3: Oh good to be back. Thank you for having me. 9 00:00:24,239 --> 00:00:27,040 Speaker 2: You are a born skeptic. Some might even say cynek. 10 00:00:27,360 --> 00:00:30,720 Speaker 2: You've built your career on questioning conventional wisdom, what people, 11 00:00:30,880 --> 00:00:33,920 Speaker 2: what companies say. So when it comes to expectations for 12 00:00:33,960 --> 00:00:37,040 Speaker 2: trumpnomics and the market under Donald Trump, what is the 13 00:00:37,040 --> 00:00:38,440 Speaker 2: crowd perhaps getting wrong? 14 00:00:38,479 --> 00:00:39,479 Speaker 4: What are they not seeing? 15 00:00:40,600 --> 00:00:43,800 Speaker 3: Well? I think that and I've been posting that. 16 00:00:43,920 --> 00:00:45,920 Speaker 5: I think the budget cuts are going to be a 17 00:00:45,920 --> 00:00:48,600 Speaker 5: lot harder than people think. I mean, we're going after 18 00:00:49,159 --> 00:00:53,440 Speaker 5: kind of the low hanging fruit both practically and politically 19 00:00:53,520 --> 00:00:58,600 Speaker 5: right now, like the USAID stuff. But this is is 20 00:00:58,640 --> 00:01:01,240 Speaker 5: outrageous as some of the things that the Doche Committee 21 00:01:01,280 --> 00:01:03,160 Speaker 5: is finding, and I agree that some of them are 22 00:01:03,480 --> 00:01:07,520 Speaker 5: are pretty silly. I think that materially we're not really 23 00:01:07,520 --> 00:01:09,520 Speaker 5: going to be able to do a lot until you 24 00:01:09,560 --> 00:01:14,680 Speaker 5: get to kind of more serious items like medicare, medicaid, defense, 25 00:01:15,720 --> 00:01:16,520 Speaker 5: the third reil. 26 00:01:16,840 --> 00:01:17,640 Speaker 3: And yeah, the. 27 00:01:19,360 --> 00:01:21,920 Speaker 5: Hot ticket third rail type stuff, and that's going to 28 00:01:21,959 --> 00:01:25,280 Speaker 5: be much much tougher. And so I think we're still 29 00:01:25,319 --> 00:01:30,240 Speaker 5: in the early parts of sort of political theater on Trumpanomics. 30 00:01:30,520 --> 00:01:32,600 Speaker 3: And then of course we have the whole separate issue. 31 00:01:32,360 --> 00:01:34,960 Speaker 2: Of tariffs, and that gets me to the next question. 32 00:01:35,000 --> 00:01:37,080 Speaker 2: I mean, you look at Trump's policies overall, they're both 33 00:01:37,120 --> 00:01:40,600 Speaker 2: populist and as you've described them, standard republican, but so 34 00:01:40,680 --> 00:01:43,319 Speaker 2: far he's chosen to focus on trade war over say, 35 00:01:43,560 --> 00:01:46,800 Speaker 2: cutting taxes. So what does this tell you about Trumpanomics 36 00:01:46,920 --> 00:01:50,480 Speaker 2: in this second go round rather than the first attempt. 37 00:01:51,280 --> 00:01:53,880 Speaker 5: Yeah, so, I mean, he obviously came right out of 38 00:01:53,920 --> 00:01:56,760 Speaker 5: the gate with the tariffs over this past weekend that 39 00:01:56,800 --> 00:02:02,440 Speaker 5: have been walked back temporarily, so it appears they're serious there. 40 00:02:02,880 --> 00:02:07,840 Speaker 5: We'll see the fact that Mexico and Canada kind of 41 00:02:07,880 --> 00:02:09,320 Speaker 5: agreed to do things that they had. 42 00:02:09,200 --> 00:02:11,520 Speaker 3: Already agreed to do. I mean, Mexico had. 43 00:02:11,639 --> 00:02:14,359 Speaker 5: Ten to fifteen thousand troops on its border going back 44 00:02:14,400 --> 00:02:17,320 Speaker 5: to twenty seventeen, and a promise they made to Trump 45 00:02:17,440 --> 00:02:22,520 Speaker 5: the first go around and reiterated with Biden. So again, 46 00:02:22,520 --> 00:02:25,679 Speaker 5: how much is political theater, how much is real? We'll 47 00:02:25,680 --> 00:02:29,720 Speaker 5: have to see China. The China tariffs I think obviously 48 00:02:29,800 --> 00:02:32,080 Speaker 5: are a lot more serious and are worth watching. 49 00:02:32,360 --> 00:02:33,680 Speaker 4: What's the economic risk? 50 00:02:34,800 --> 00:02:37,320 Speaker 5: Well, the economic risk, I mean there's a couple of 51 00:02:37,760 --> 00:02:41,600 Speaker 5: problems with the message, which is, well, we charge enough tariffs, 52 00:02:42,080 --> 00:02:44,959 Speaker 5: we really can eliminate things like the income tax and 53 00:02:45,120 --> 00:02:47,840 Speaker 5: a lot of other sort of broad promises. And the 54 00:02:47,880 --> 00:02:50,079 Speaker 5: fact of the matter is, I mean tariffs I think 55 00:02:50,080 --> 00:02:53,640 Speaker 5: brought in about eighty billion dollars last year, and so 56 00:02:53,960 --> 00:02:56,680 Speaker 5: you know, in order for tariffs to replace the income tax, 57 00:02:56,720 --> 00:02:59,959 Speaker 5: which is about two trillion of our four trillion revenues, 58 00:03:00,680 --> 00:03:01,919 Speaker 5: you gotta have a lot of tariffs. 59 00:03:02,480 --> 00:03:05,080 Speaker 3: So I don't think we're looking at that. 60 00:03:05,280 --> 00:03:09,080 Speaker 5: I think the question is is this being used as 61 00:03:09,400 --> 00:03:13,680 Speaker 5: a national security cudgel as well as an economic cudgel 62 00:03:13,800 --> 00:03:18,079 Speaker 5: or is it strictly economics. Because they really believe they 63 00:03:18,080 --> 00:03:21,080 Speaker 5: can raise a lot of money with tariffs, the numbers 64 00:03:21,160 --> 00:03:22,280 Speaker 5: just kind of don't pencil out. 65 00:03:22,600 --> 00:03:23,239 Speaker 4: I am curious. 66 00:03:23,280 --> 00:03:25,960 Speaker 1: So when we talk about the potential overhang of this, 67 00:03:26,080 --> 00:03:28,120 Speaker 1: I mean, I know, in fairness to the Trump administration. 68 00:03:28,120 --> 00:03:30,080 Speaker 1: It's only been a couple of weeks here, but the 69 00:03:30,160 --> 00:03:33,119 Speaker 1: idea that now Mexico and Canada have won a one 70 00:03:33,120 --> 00:03:37,120 Speaker 1: month reprieve, at least for investors and economic watchers, that's 71 00:03:37,480 --> 00:03:40,800 Speaker 1: another month of uncertainty. Do you think we'll get more 72 00:03:40,800 --> 00:03:44,320 Speaker 1: of a concrete policy, meaning an actual resolution of some 73 00:03:44,440 --> 00:03:47,200 Speaker 1: form or another that will at least provide some certainty to. 74 00:03:47,200 --> 00:03:48,600 Speaker 4: The market with it the market likes it or not, 75 00:03:48,640 --> 00:03:49,600 Speaker 4: that's all another conversation. 76 00:03:49,680 --> 00:03:50,360 Speaker 3: Yeah, well, I. 77 00:03:50,280 --> 00:03:53,360 Speaker 5: Think drama's part of the message remained. I mean, it 78 00:03:53,440 --> 00:03:56,280 Speaker 5: wasn't the first administration. I don't see a whole lot 79 00:03:56,320 --> 00:03:59,360 Speaker 5: different changing in this. I mean, the one thing you 80 00:03:59,440 --> 00:04:02,720 Speaker 5: might might at least point out in the past administration 81 00:04:03,080 --> 00:04:05,160 Speaker 5: for good or bad, I didn't have to, you know, 82 00:04:05,240 --> 00:04:08,480 Speaker 5: check my my x feed first thing in the morning 83 00:04:08,560 --> 00:04:10,760 Speaker 5: to see what was coming out of the White House overnight. 84 00:04:11,560 --> 00:04:13,680 Speaker 5: And so you know, we're back to we're back to 85 00:04:15,120 --> 00:04:18,960 Speaker 5: a much more volatile set of political you know, political 86 00:04:18,960 --> 00:04:22,440 Speaker 5: pronouncements and streams and walk backs, and it's a little 87 00:04:22,480 --> 00:04:23,159 Speaker 5: more uncertainty. 88 00:04:23,400 --> 00:04:26,040 Speaker 1: Well, how much confidence do you have in the people 89 00:04:26,200 --> 00:04:28,680 Speaker 1: around Trump? Because Trump himself, you know, he's just sort 90 00:04:28,720 --> 00:04:31,320 Speaker 1: of this four text but there are some relatively competent 91 00:04:31,360 --> 00:04:35,320 Speaker 1: people around him, including the Treasury Secretary, who you have 92 00:04:35,560 --> 00:04:38,640 Speaker 1: some familiary with back when you were running Kinecolty Strange. 93 00:04:38,680 --> 00:04:40,520 Speaker 1: He was one of your first analytics out there. 94 00:04:40,560 --> 00:04:42,640 Speaker 4: He was my first So you liked him, then, do 95 00:04:42,680 --> 00:04:44,000 Speaker 4: you still like him out I. 96 00:04:44,400 --> 00:04:45,840 Speaker 3: Like Scott Passid an awful lot. 97 00:04:46,240 --> 00:04:48,960 Speaker 5: We don't show the same politics, but he's a man 98 00:04:49,040 --> 00:04:53,359 Speaker 5: of real character, and I think he was probably the 99 00:04:53,400 --> 00:04:57,080 Speaker 5: best man for the job given the political arena. So 100 00:04:57,400 --> 00:04:59,520 Speaker 5: I'm hoping he does well. I think he you know, 101 00:05:00,040 --> 00:05:02,520 Speaker 5: he will do well, hopefully, and I know he has 102 00:05:02,560 --> 00:05:04,159 Speaker 5: the country's best interest at heart. 103 00:05:04,320 --> 00:05:05,880 Speaker 2: And you did see him, but you didn't actually get 104 00:05:05,880 --> 00:05:07,839 Speaker 2: to talk to him about what he's doing right now. 105 00:05:08,000 --> 00:05:10,000 Speaker 5: Well, I was able to see him and congratulate him 106 00:05:10,040 --> 00:05:14,160 Speaker 5: after he got the nods, so he's got his hands full. 107 00:05:14,839 --> 00:05:17,800 Speaker 2: You've described the last few years as the golden age 108 00:05:17,800 --> 00:05:21,000 Speaker 2: of fraud, funny accounting, questionable behavior on the parts of 109 00:05:21,040 --> 00:05:24,680 Speaker 2: investors of companies. How would you describe where we are now? 110 00:05:24,720 --> 00:05:27,520 Speaker 2: Given that the lines between government and business are pretty 111 00:05:27,560 --> 00:05:30,479 Speaker 2: much blurred, more intertwined than ever. You've got Elon Musk 112 00:05:30,560 --> 00:05:34,000 Speaker 2: running dog, You've got the president selling his own meme coin. 113 00:05:34,320 --> 00:05:37,520 Speaker 2: You've got regulators perhaps taking their hands off the wheel completely. 114 00:05:38,760 --> 00:05:42,800 Speaker 5: Yeah, I'm hard pressed to think that we're going to 115 00:05:42,839 --> 00:05:46,320 Speaker 5: see less of it in the near term. It sure 116 00:05:46,400 --> 00:05:49,640 Speaker 5: seems like we're going to see more of it. Look, 117 00:05:50,320 --> 00:05:53,320 Speaker 5: this is a cycle the likes of which I've never seen. 118 00:05:53,839 --> 00:05:56,279 Speaker 5: And the willingness of people to believe things that just 119 00:05:56,320 --> 00:06:00,960 Speaker 5: simply aren't true never stops to ceases to amaze me, 120 00:06:01,520 --> 00:06:07,000 Speaker 5: particularly as a cycle carries on. And the willingness of 121 00:06:07,080 --> 00:06:11,440 Speaker 5: management teams now to project way into the future and 122 00:06:11,480 --> 00:06:14,880 Speaker 5: make all kinds of claims and promises I think is 123 00:06:14,920 --> 00:06:18,400 Speaker 5: also sort of unprecedented. It's always been there, but it's 124 00:06:18,520 --> 00:06:19,239 Speaker 5: greater now. 125 00:06:19,720 --> 00:06:19,919 Speaker 3: You know. 126 00:06:20,279 --> 00:06:23,479 Speaker 5: I've always said that bull markets place a premium on 127 00:06:23,600 --> 00:06:27,960 Speaker 5: promises and bear markets discount reality. And right now there's 128 00:06:28,040 --> 00:06:30,239 Speaker 5: lots of companies making lots of promises. 129 00:06:30,080 --> 00:06:32,480 Speaker 1: Lots of promises, but what is the reality? And I mean, 130 00:06:32,480 --> 00:06:36,279 Speaker 1: and to Scarlett's point, you have some conflicts of interest 131 00:06:36,360 --> 00:06:38,680 Speaker 1: in some of the folks who are I don't know 132 00:06:38,680 --> 00:06:40,120 Speaker 1: if they're in charge. I mean they would say they're 133 00:06:40,160 --> 00:06:42,320 Speaker 1: not in charge, but certainly sort of leading the charge 134 00:06:42,800 --> 00:06:44,599 Speaker 1: in sort of trying to sort of root out whatever 135 00:06:44,640 --> 00:06:47,000 Speaker 1: they think could potentially be bogging. 136 00:06:46,720 --> 00:06:47,400 Speaker 4: Us down here. 137 00:06:47,880 --> 00:06:50,719 Speaker 1: If you're not a friend of Elon Musk or a 138 00:06:50,720 --> 00:06:53,279 Speaker 1: friend of Trump, and you're running a company or an 139 00:06:53,320 --> 00:06:54,480 Speaker 1: investment fund, should. 140 00:06:54,200 --> 00:06:54,760 Speaker 4: You be worried? 141 00:06:54,839 --> 00:06:55,039 Speaker 1: Yeah? 142 00:06:55,080 --> 00:06:55,960 Speaker 3: I mean, I don't know. 143 00:06:56,040 --> 00:06:58,039 Speaker 5: I don't know how personal it's all going to get 144 00:06:58,320 --> 00:07:03,120 Speaker 5: to companies and individuals. But but I am concerned that 145 00:07:03,279 --> 00:07:08,240 Speaker 5: we have this whole new new structure set up with 146 00:07:08,360 --> 00:07:10,920 Speaker 5: people that are basically going in again. And if you 147 00:07:11,000 --> 00:07:15,000 Speaker 5: read the President's executive order setting up the DOGE Committee, 148 00:07:15,000 --> 00:07:18,960 Speaker 5: which was an existing committee, the US Digital Services Committee, 149 00:07:19,600 --> 00:07:24,160 Speaker 5: it has no budgetary authority or even recommendations. It's it's 150 00:07:24,360 --> 00:07:28,880 Speaker 5: set up as a technology in software consulting organizations. So 151 00:07:28,920 --> 00:07:32,200 Speaker 5: obviously the bally Wick has expanded to be something much 152 00:07:32,240 --> 00:07:32,960 Speaker 5: greater than that. 153 00:07:33,520 --> 00:07:35,160 Speaker 3: And the question will be, you. 154 00:07:35,120 --> 00:07:37,760 Speaker 5: Know, well, at some point a federal judge somewhere say 155 00:07:37,800 --> 00:07:40,480 Speaker 5: wait a minute, you know this is you're going beyond 156 00:07:40,640 --> 00:07:44,000 Speaker 5: your your purview, beyond your legal. 157 00:07:43,800 --> 00:07:45,960 Speaker 1: Does it undermine faith though in the system. I mean, 158 00:07:46,000 --> 00:07:48,360 Speaker 1: particularly when I see people rooting around in the treasury system. 159 00:07:48,400 --> 00:07:50,440 Speaker 1: I mean, we can talk about USAID and some of 160 00:07:50,480 --> 00:07:51,679 Speaker 1: these other things, but the Treasury. 161 00:07:51,760 --> 00:07:53,400 Speaker 4: I mean, we're talking about the background. 162 00:07:53,080 --> 00:07:53,320 Speaker 2: Of our. 163 00:07:54,960 --> 00:07:55,360 Speaker 3: Structure. 164 00:07:55,400 --> 00:07:58,960 Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean we'll see, and we'll see to the 165 00:07:59,000 --> 00:08:04,000 Speaker 5: extent when it goes beyond just you know, aerobic studies 166 00:08:04,040 --> 00:08:08,520 Speaker 5: about shrimp and USAID and gets into social security and 167 00:08:09,120 --> 00:08:10,680 Speaker 5: Medicare payments and things like that. 168 00:08:10,720 --> 00:08:11,680 Speaker 3: They're really serious. 169 00:08:12,080 --> 00:08:14,000 Speaker 5: And then I think you're going to see you're going 170 00:08:14,040 --> 00:08:16,360 Speaker 5: to if there's any pushback, it's going to be pretty serious. 171 00:08:16,880 --> 00:08:19,160 Speaker 2: I want to shift to our conversation now to the 172 00:08:19,240 --> 00:08:21,040 Speaker 2: tariffs on China, which you said are going to be 173 00:08:21,160 --> 00:08:23,520 Speaker 2: much more serious. The US began imposing an additional ten 174 00:08:23,560 --> 00:08:27,320 Speaker 2: percent tariff on Chinese goods, and Beijing's response was targeted 175 00:08:27,360 --> 00:08:30,480 Speaker 2: tariffs on about eighty products, which hardly seems like a 176 00:08:30,480 --> 00:08:31,720 Speaker 2: proportional response. 177 00:08:32,320 --> 00:08:33,200 Speaker 4: What does this reveal? 178 00:08:33,280 --> 00:08:35,920 Speaker 2: Does this indicate that China has more to lose from 179 00:08:36,000 --> 00:08:38,000 Speaker 2: a trade war with the US than the other way around. 180 00:08:38,679 --> 00:08:42,040 Speaker 5: I mean, the argument for the administration is that they 181 00:08:42,040 --> 00:08:44,360 Speaker 5: do right, that China has much more to lose. They're 182 00:08:44,440 --> 00:08:49,400 Speaker 5: much more export driven country. We'll we'll have to see. 183 00:08:49,400 --> 00:08:51,760 Speaker 5: I mean, I think China probably feels it was proportional, 184 00:08:52,280 --> 00:08:54,280 Speaker 5: and we don't know what discussions are going on behind 185 00:08:54,320 --> 00:08:58,200 Speaker 5: the scenes, So I think again, wait and see, but 186 00:08:58,600 --> 00:09:01,719 Speaker 5: I think that ten percent isn't going to do it, 187 00:09:01,760 --> 00:09:04,040 Speaker 5: by the way, I mean, getting back to our early 188 00:09:04,080 --> 00:09:07,079 Speaker 5: conversation about the amount of tariffs you need to raise 189 00:09:07,080 --> 00:09:10,080 Speaker 5: serious revenues. You know, you would have to raise them 190 00:09:10,240 --> 00:09:14,400 Speaker 5: substantially on both China and EU, and we haven't seen 191 00:09:14,440 --> 00:09:19,000 Speaker 5: that yet. So we'll have to see what exactly comes 192 00:09:19,200 --> 00:09:21,040 Speaker 5: within thirty days sixty days. 193 00:09:21,400 --> 00:09:24,480 Speaker 3: Does it escalate or does it cool off? 194 00:09:24,520 --> 00:09:27,720 Speaker 5: And it was an early campaign promise that he's delivered 195 00:09:27,760 --> 00:09:29,680 Speaker 5: on and now he's moved on to something else. 196 00:09:29,760 --> 00:09:31,600 Speaker 2: But at the same time, this comes at a precarious 197 00:09:31,600 --> 00:09:34,080 Speaker 2: time for China's economy. You've been warning for a long 198 00:09:34,120 --> 00:09:37,960 Speaker 2: time about China's debt bubble and his broken economic model. 199 00:09:38,320 --> 00:09:41,720 Speaker 2: What does the imposition of turfs now an additional ten percent, 200 00:09:41,760 --> 00:09:44,520 Speaker 2: but you know, perhaps going even higher mean for that 201 00:09:44,840 --> 00:09:45,840 Speaker 2: long term. 202 00:09:45,800 --> 00:09:46,920 Speaker 3: To be fine. Yeah, it doesn't. 203 00:09:46,960 --> 00:09:49,040 Speaker 5: It doesn't help it, that's for sure, because I mean, 204 00:09:49,160 --> 00:09:56,160 Speaker 5: China saw fewer reliance on net exports after twenty ten 205 00:09:56,200 --> 00:09:59,320 Speaker 5: when we first put out our warning, and it's growing again. 206 00:10:00,000 --> 00:10:01,760 Speaker 5: And part of that is due to the fact that 207 00:10:01,800 --> 00:10:06,280 Speaker 5: the investment driven model that we've been crying wolf about forever, 208 00:10:07,240 --> 00:10:12,160 Speaker 5: albeit correctly, is losing its impetus to continue to grow, 209 00:10:12,400 --> 00:10:16,200 Speaker 5: and the banking system is still bloated. And we've seen 210 00:10:16,240 --> 00:10:19,880 Speaker 5: now problems in the residential real estate area completely trickle 211 00:10:19,960 --> 00:10:24,440 Speaker 5: down into the actual developers. So they've got a model 212 00:10:24,480 --> 00:10:29,760 Speaker 5: that really now is facing kind of a crossroads with 213 00:10:29,800 --> 00:10:32,400 Speaker 5: what they're going to do, and the US putting on 214 00:10:32,480 --> 00:10:36,160 Speaker 5: major tariffs to one of their few thriving parts of 215 00:10:36,200 --> 00:10:39,960 Speaker 5: the engine, the export manufacturing area isn't going to help, 216 00:10:40,160 --> 00:10:40,560 Speaker 5: all right. 217 00:10:40,480 --> 00:10:43,200 Speaker 2: A moment of reckoning them perhaps for China, Jim. We 218 00:10:43,240 --> 00:10:45,480 Speaker 2: look at the market. It's now three months after the election. 219 00:10:45,600 --> 00:10:47,880 Speaker 2: The S and P five hundred is up about four percent, 220 00:10:48,160 --> 00:10:51,520 Speaker 2: just about a percent shy of as record high. Isn't 221 00:10:51,559 --> 00:10:54,240 Speaker 2: it still just a big long trade right now? How 222 00:10:54,280 --> 00:10:56,760 Speaker 2: significantly different is the market under Trump than it was 223 00:10:56,840 --> 00:10:57,400 Speaker 2: under Biden? 224 00:10:58,520 --> 00:10:59,600 Speaker 3: Well, I mean it did pretty well. 225 00:11:00,360 --> 00:11:03,360 Speaker 5: It did pretty well under Trump Trump first go round too, 226 00:11:03,559 --> 00:11:08,000 Speaker 5: So it's done pretty well under both administrations. And historically 227 00:11:08,040 --> 00:11:10,920 Speaker 5: the equity markets have done better under democratic administrations than 228 00:11:11,000 --> 00:11:12,160 Speaker 5: republic administrations. 229 00:11:12,480 --> 00:11:16,800 Speaker 3: Everyone kind of forgets that, but it's. 230 00:11:16,120 --> 00:11:18,520 Speaker 5: Hard pressed to see if you just look at the 231 00:11:18,520 --> 00:11:21,840 Speaker 5: continuity of the last eight or nine years, or even 232 00:11:21,880 --> 00:11:25,440 Speaker 5: going further back where where the elections were, because I mean, 233 00:11:25,960 --> 00:11:29,760 Speaker 5: really they've the market's done pretty well under all administrations. 234 00:11:29,880 --> 00:11:33,000 Speaker 2: And because it's done so well, there's little institutional appetite 235 00:11:33,120 --> 00:11:35,360 Speaker 2: for short selling. And just over a year ago you 236 00:11:35,360 --> 00:11:38,080 Speaker 2: converted her hedge fund into a family office and an 237 00:11:38,120 --> 00:11:41,720 Speaker 2: advisory Because of that, we recently saw activists short seller 238 00:11:42,360 --> 00:11:46,000 Speaker 2: Nate Anderson quit as well, shutting down Hindenberg Research. Is 239 00:11:46,040 --> 00:11:48,680 Speaker 2: the traditional short selling strategy just dead now? 240 00:11:48,880 --> 00:11:49,080 Speaker 3: Well? 241 00:11:49,120 --> 00:11:52,040 Speaker 5: I mean, so there's two different models there that you've referenced, 242 00:11:52,040 --> 00:11:56,680 Speaker 5: the sort of traditional model that we employed for better 243 00:11:56,720 --> 00:12:00,400 Speaker 5: part of forty years, which was just simply putting on 244 00:12:00,480 --> 00:12:04,880 Speaker 5: short positions hedged or unhedged for our clients who were 245 00:12:04,880 --> 00:12:08,079 Speaker 5: looking for that exposure. And then there's the short activist model, 246 00:12:08,120 --> 00:12:12,920 Speaker 5: which people like Nate and others have perfected or really 247 00:12:13,080 --> 00:12:15,600 Speaker 5: done well with. And so I think it's almost two 248 00:12:15,600 --> 00:12:21,840 Speaker 5: different questions. There is virtually very little appetite for a 249 00:12:21,880 --> 00:12:24,840 Speaker 5: short oriented fund product. 250 00:12:24,559 --> 00:12:25,520 Speaker 3: Even if it's hedged. 251 00:12:26,760 --> 00:12:26,880 Speaker 5: Now. 252 00:12:26,920 --> 00:12:28,480 Speaker 3: A lot of that is the advent. 253 00:12:28,200 --> 00:12:31,720 Speaker 5: Of the so called pod shops, the multimanager shops, which 254 00:12:31,760 --> 00:12:35,120 Speaker 5: have done a pretty good job of delivering returns with 255 00:12:35,280 --> 00:12:38,240 Speaker 5: very little net exposure, which is what the long short 256 00:12:38,280 --> 00:12:41,760 Speaker 5: industry did for years and years and years. That changed 257 00:12:42,160 --> 00:12:46,600 Speaker 5: the long short industry morphed into basically mostly long on 258 00:12:46,679 --> 00:12:51,439 Speaker 5: the hedge fund side. But I think that I think 259 00:12:51,480 --> 00:12:55,720 Speaker 5: there's always always a market for insurance, as I've said, 260 00:12:55,840 --> 00:12:58,839 Speaker 5: and remember that good fundamental short. 261 00:12:58,559 --> 00:13:00,000 Speaker 3: Positions allow you to be more long. 262 00:13:00,800 --> 00:13:03,080 Speaker 5: That's always been the point that they allow you to 263 00:13:03,120 --> 00:13:04,080 Speaker 5: finance your lungs. 264 00:13:04,400 --> 00:13:06,200 Speaker 3: So for us, it was passive, right. 265 00:13:06,240 --> 00:13:09,640 Speaker 5: We we bought the indices and had our short portfolio. 266 00:13:10,000 --> 00:13:13,319 Speaker 5: And by the way, I mean Bloomberg has a wonderful 267 00:13:14,000 --> 00:13:17,720 Speaker 5: short index and it's in the terminal, the Goldman Sachs 268 00:13:17,840 --> 00:13:21,480 Speaker 5: Most Shorted Index. It's rebalanced monthly. If you looked at 269 00:13:21,480 --> 00:13:25,080 Speaker 5: that since the Game Stop episode where everybody has basically 270 00:13:25,120 --> 00:13:29,080 Speaker 5: said short selling is dead, you know, there's the risks 271 00:13:29,080 --> 00:13:33,480 Speaker 5: are too high, and you simply shorted that index, bought 272 00:13:33,720 --> 00:13:36,520 Speaker 5: bought the S and P or a related passive index 273 00:13:36,840 --> 00:13:42,840 Speaker 5: rebalanced monthly. That return has been spectacular, and so so 274 00:13:43,000 --> 00:13:45,400 Speaker 5: there's still alpha on the short side. 275 00:13:45,840 --> 00:13:47,480 Speaker 3: It's just nobody thinks it's there anymore. 276 00:13:47,679 --> 00:13:49,640 Speaker 1: That's on a more of an index level. What about 277 00:13:49,640 --> 00:13:50,760 Speaker 1: on an individual. 278 00:13:50,400 --> 00:13:53,760 Speaker 3: Well, no, that index is actually individual. 279 00:13:53,320 --> 00:13:57,680 Speaker 5: Stocks, the most shorted stocks. It's a representative portfolio of 280 00:13:57,800 --> 00:14:00,600 Speaker 5: very dicey companies, a lot of which we were short. 281 00:14:00,679 --> 00:14:02,360 Speaker 1: Well what's the risk out there? I mean we talk 282 00:14:02,440 --> 00:14:03,760 Speaker 1: about I mean, we've sort. 283 00:14:03,640 --> 00:14:05,320 Speaker 4: Of written all these headlines about the demise, and. 284 00:14:05,320 --> 00:14:07,040 Speaker 1: I know it's not completely you know, we talk about 285 00:14:07,200 --> 00:14:09,760 Speaker 1: I mean short bias funds down like seventy percent since 286 00:14:09,840 --> 00:14:12,839 Speaker 1: the financial crisis. But even activist campaigns, I thought last 287 00:14:12,920 --> 00:14:15,040 Speaker 1: year was like a record low despite all the headlines 288 00:14:15,240 --> 00:14:17,040 Speaker 1: that we got out all of these companies like Starboard 289 00:14:17,080 --> 00:14:18,800 Speaker 1: and a few others, it was a record low year 290 00:14:18,800 --> 00:14:23,120 Speaker 1: for activist campaigns. Is that a reflection of market dynamics 291 00:14:23,200 --> 00:14:26,520 Speaker 1: or is that more reflection of public and political dynamics. 292 00:14:26,600 --> 00:14:28,800 Speaker 3: Well, I think it's both. I mean, I remember, I 293 00:14:28,800 --> 00:14:30,200 Speaker 3: mean the market. 294 00:14:29,840 --> 00:14:35,600 Speaker 5: Prices are people's you know, facts, people's opinions based on facts, 295 00:14:36,160 --> 00:14:39,440 Speaker 5: and so you know, people have gotten much more bullish 296 00:14:39,760 --> 00:14:44,680 Speaker 5: over general political level, level of regulation, the promises that 297 00:14:44,760 --> 00:14:47,640 Speaker 5: companies made. It we talked about earlier. So I mean 298 00:14:47,680 --> 00:14:50,040 Speaker 5: these are all part of a bullmarket. I mean, it's 299 00:14:50,120 --> 00:14:53,240 Speaker 5: just it's just the cycle has lasted a lot longer 300 00:14:53,280 --> 00:14:55,760 Speaker 5: than a lot of people were thought, including me, But 301 00:14:56,480 --> 00:15:01,400 Speaker 5: I think that that can change too. And and so 302 00:15:02,360 --> 00:15:06,480 Speaker 5: the problem is is that price levels and the and 303 00:15:06,520 --> 00:15:08,680 Speaker 5: where we are in that part of the cycle don't 304 00:15:08,720 --> 00:15:11,040 Speaker 5: give you a good sense of timing. They do give 305 00:15:11,040 --> 00:15:12,960 Speaker 5: you a good sense of how much risk you're taking 306 00:15:13,280 --> 00:15:14,520 Speaker 5: should the timing change. 307 00:15:14,600 --> 00:15:16,160 Speaker 1: It feels like there's a lot of risk in this 308 00:15:16,280 --> 00:15:19,000 Speaker 1: market right now. When you look at public market valuations, 309 00:15:19,040 --> 00:15:21,920 Speaker 1: whether on an index level or an individual stock level, 310 00:15:22,440 --> 00:15:26,360 Speaker 1: valuations are high. You look in technology, you go deeper 311 00:15:26,360 --> 00:15:28,920 Speaker 1: into AI, the valuations are even higher. 312 00:15:29,240 --> 00:15:32,040 Speaker 4: Can you make a case there is a bubble out there? 313 00:15:32,080 --> 00:15:34,800 Speaker 5: And the speculation is there remain not quite as where it 314 00:15:34,880 --> 00:15:37,080 Speaker 5: was in twenty twenty one, which is the most speculative 315 00:15:37,120 --> 00:15:37,720 Speaker 5: market I've. 316 00:15:37,560 --> 00:15:38,880 Speaker 3: Seen, but it's getting back there. 317 00:15:38,920 --> 00:15:42,720 Speaker 5: I mean the speculation and meme coins and again or 318 00:15:42,960 --> 00:15:44,280 Speaker 5: just people are floating these. 319 00:15:44,320 --> 00:15:46,240 Speaker 4: So you did not buy the Malania coin as much. 320 00:15:46,120 --> 00:15:48,360 Speaker 5: As I didn't buy the un round coin that was 321 00:15:48,360 --> 00:15:49,760 Speaker 5: floated yesterday. 322 00:15:49,320 --> 00:15:53,360 Speaker 3: By the way, So yeah, so there you go. 323 00:15:54,120 --> 00:15:56,720 Speaker 5: So I think that that, yeah, these are all signs 324 00:15:56,760 --> 00:15:59,360 Speaker 5: and what we haven't seen yet which we saw in 325 00:15:59,400 --> 00:16:02,840 Speaker 5: twenty twenty But I suspect we will see soon. Is 326 00:16:02,840 --> 00:16:05,720 Speaker 5: a lot of issuance. As I've always said that Wall 327 00:16:05,720 --> 00:16:07,880 Speaker 5: Street has a printing press too, just like the fat 328 00:16:08,680 --> 00:16:11,360 Speaker 5: and once that printing press goes and everybody gets filled, 329 00:16:11,880 --> 00:16:14,760 Speaker 5: generally you end up with some heavier weather, as we 330 00:16:14,800 --> 00:16:15,960 Speaker 5: did in twenty twenty two. 331 00:16:16,400 --> 00:16:18,600 Speaker 3: I haven't seen it yet. I suspect we will. 332 00:16:18,920 --> 00:16:20,640 Speaker 2: I want to get your thoughts on deep Seek, the 333 00:16:20,680 --> 00:16:23,800 Speaker 2: revelation of deep Seek and it's technological breakthrough a cheaper, 334 00:16:23,920 --> 00:16:26,920 Speaker 2: more efficient AI model. Does it help answer the question 335 00:16:27,040 --> 00:16:28,480 Speaker 2: of whether we're in an AI bubble? 336 00:16:29,120 --> 00:16:31,360 Speaker 5: Well, what I pointed out when it came out, and 337 00:16:31,400 --> 00:16:34,480 Speaker 5: I know nothing about LM models or any of that, 338 00:16:34,560 --> 00:16:38,000 Speaker 5: which one is better is it underscores the risks of 339 00:16:38,040 --> 00:16:41,680 Speaker 5: disruptive technology. And that is, when you are betting on 340 00:16:41,760 --> 00:16:46,280 Speaker 5: disruptive technology, you have to always consider the risk that 341 00:16:46,280 --> 00:16:49,800 Speaker 5: that technology will be disrupted itself by a better mouse trap. 342 00:16:50,200 --> 00:16:51,320 Speaker 3: The kid in the garage. 343 00:16:51,400 --> 00:16:56,200 Speaker 5: You know, we can talk about all of the possible risks, 344 00:16:56,240 --> 00:17:00,000 Speaker 5: and that's something coming out of left field that I think, 345 00:17:00,400 --> 00:17:02,840 Speaker 5: you know, can change the argument. So I think that's 346 00:17:02,880 --> 00:17:06,600 Speaker 5: what deep Seek underscored was that wait a minute, maybe 347 00:17:06,640 --> 00:17:07,480 Speaker 5: there's a way to. 348 00:17:07,480 --> 00:17:11,240 Speaker 3: Do AI with less cap x, less chips. 349 00:17:11,480 --> 00:17:16,360 Speaker 5: You know, cheaper, and nobody had kind of really considered 350 00:17:16,359 --> 00:17:18,640 Speaker 5: that until Deep Seek. Now I don't know that deep 351 00:17:18,680 --> 00:17:22,920 Speaker 5: seac it dethrones the other models. It's beyond my pay grade, 352 00:17:23,320 --> 00:17:28,639 Speaker 5: but it does underscore the risks of paying multiples of 353 00:17:28,720 --> 00:17:31,160 Speaker 5: revenue that are historically considered you. 354 00:17:31,119 --> 00:17:33,080 Speaker 3: Know, egregious. 355 00:17:33,240 --> 00:17:37,000 Speaker 5: And now we have companies routinely trading at twenty thirty 356 00:17:37,040 --> 00:17:39,879 Speaker 5: forty times revenues. Yeah, so that gives you an idea 357 00:17:39,880 --> 00:17:42,080 Speaker 5: of the risk those in those businesses. 358 00:17:42,440 --> 00:17:44,320 Speaker 2: I look at Palinger and how well it's done, and 359 00:17:44,640 --> 00:17:47,199 Speaker 2: it's talk about untamed organic growth. So at least when 360 00:17:47,240 --> 00:17:49,240 Speaker 2: it comes to big tech and AI, this threat of 361 00:17:49,240 --> 00:17:52,680 Speaker 2: disruptive technology, do you see any evidence that institutional investors 362 00:17:52,920 --> 00:17:56,199 Speaker 2: maybe have an appetite to start hedging or looking to 363 00:17:56,280 --> 00:17:58,320 Speaker 2: protect against them those positions. 364 00:17:57,920 --> 00:18:01,439 Speaker 5: Well, they should by seeing it yet, but they should. 365 00:18:02,720 --> 00:18:05,679 Speaker 5: And as I said, and the other thing I'll just 366 00:18:05,720 --> 00:18:09,600 Speaker 5: mention about disruptive technology is in the up phase of it, 367 00:18:09,640 --> 00:18:11,760 Speaker 5: as we saw in the late nineties when the Internet, 368 00:18:11,800 --> 00:18:15,800 Speaker 5: which was certainly a disruptive technology. Everything is a positive 369 00:18:16,160 --> 00:18:20,040 Speaker 5: The Internet will affect all things positively, and in fact, 370 00:18:20,040 --> 00:18:24,360 Speaker 5: what we found and what I and my clients made 371 00:18:24,359 --> 00:18:28,440 Speaker 5: a lot of money on from two thousand and twenty 372 00:18:28,600 --> 00:18:32,720 Speaker 5: ten was how many businesses got unfortunately disrupted by the Internet, 373 00:18:32,880 --> 00:18:35,959 Speaker 5: how many businesses went away. And I suspect that's going 374 00:18:36,000 --> 00:18:38,159 Speaker 5: to be the same thing in AI that not a 375 00:18:38,200 --> 00:18:40,720 Speaker 5: lot of people are talking about yet. I mean, AI 376 00:18:41,560 --> 00:18:44,680 Speaker 5: is a very revolutionary technology and will be benefiting lots 377 00:18:44,680 --> 00:18:48,160 Speaker 5: of things and hopefully humanity, but by definition it will 378 00:18:48,160 --> 00:18:49,959 Speaker 5: put a lot of business models out of business. 379 00:18:50,200 --> 00:18:52,160 Speaker 1: Yeah, and it's already We're always starting to hear talk 380 00:18:52,160 --> 00:18:54,440 Speaker 1: about that. I was interested in how so many people 381 00:18:54,440 --> 00:18:57,359 Speaker 1: were dismissive of deep Seek and its founders. I know 382 00:18:57,359 --> 00:18:59,080 Speaker 1: there are a lot of questions about exactly what they 383 00:18:59,080 --> 00:19:01,040 Speaker 1: did and how they paid for but we saw that 384 00:19:01,080 --> 00:19:04,800 Speaker 1: same dismissiveness back during the computer era when that was 385 00:19:04,800 --> 00:19:07,119 Speaker 1: coming up, and of course during the dot com bubble 386 00:19:07,160 --> 00:19:08,960 Speaker 1: what led up to the dot com bubble. A lot 387 00:19:08,960 --> 00:19:11,680 Speaker 1: of the giants today, I mean people scoffed that Jeff 388 00:19:11,680 --> 00:19:14,639 Speaker 1: Bezos and Amazon. People scoffed at what Apple and Steve 389 00:19:14,720 --> 00:19:15,680 Speaker 1: Jobs were doing. 390 00:19:15,960 --> 00:19:20,560 Speaker 5: Right, And again those companies had had. 391 00:19:21,880 --> 00:19:24,040 Speaker 3: Big valuations in the up part of the cycle. 392 00:19:24,280 --> 00:19:27,280 Speaker 5: But what everybody forgets about Amazon, for example, is the 393 00:19:27,280 --> 00:19:31,440 Speaker 5: two ninety plus percent declines that had you two, three 394 00:19:31,520 --> 00:19:36,080 Speaker 5: and seven eight along the way, and for me to 395 00:19:36,119 --> 00:19:38,280 Speaker 5: tell investors, well, that's fine, but by the way, when 396 00:19:38,280 --> 00:19:40,200 Speaker 5: you're down ninety five percent, tell me if you're still 397 00:19:40,200 --> 00:19:43,040 Speaker 5: holding and adding to the position number one. 398 00:19:42,920 --> 00:19:43,400 Speaker 3: Number two. 399 00:19:44,280 --> 00:19:47,800 Speaker 5: We then forget about the America onlines, the yahoos, the 400 00:19:47,920 --> 00:19:50,560 Speaker 5: ask jeeves, the businesses that I. 401 00:19:50,480 --> 00:19:52,560 Speaker 4: Remember them, I still mock them to this day. 402 00:19:54,119 --> 00:19:56,720 Speaker 1: But do we also forget about I mean then wrong, 403 00:19:56,920 --> 00:19:59,119 Speaker 1: the world comms and all that, because how am I 404 00:19:59,160 --> 00:20:01,080 Speaker 1: supposed to believe that at all of these companies that 405 00:20:01,119 --> 00:20:04,600 Speaker 1: are trying to sell their AI product and giving numbers 406 00:20:04,640 --> 00:20:06,760 Speaker 1: as to what they're selling are on the output out, 407 00:20:06,800 --> 00:20:08,679 Speaker 1: particularly because we don't have a. 408 00:20:08,720 --> 00:20:11,080 Speaker 4: Jim Chanos out there rattling the cages. 409 00:20:11,119 --> 00:20:12,520 Speaker 3: Maybe I'm still. 410 00:20:12,359 --> 00:20:19,000 Speaker 5: Trying occasionally, Yeah, but look, you underscore an important part 411 00:20:19,000 --> 00:20:22,720 Speaker 5: that fundamental short sellers play, whether fund managers are activists, 412 00:20:22,960 --> 00:20:26,280 Speaker 5: and that is there's still the only ones incentivized real 413 00:20:26,359 --> 00:20:29,320 Speaker 5: time other than journalists to point this stuff out. 414 00:20:30,040 --> 00:20:32,639 Speaker 2: As we wrap up our conversation here, if investors are 415 00:20:32,680 --> 00:20:35,560 Speaker 2: indeed less sensitive to valuations, and that certainly seems to 416 00:20:35,600 --> 00:20:37,560 Speaker 2: be the case over the last couple of years, and 417 00:20:37,640 --> 00:20:40,160 Speaker 2: passive funds are driving a lot of the price action 418 00:20:40,320 --> 00:20:43,080 Speaker 2: the inflos there, what is the impact on the health 419 00:20:43,080 --> 00:20:45,240 Speaker 2: of markets overall? And I mean, I guess you could 420 00:20:45,240 --> 00:20:46,680 Speaker 2: expand that to capitalism. 421 00:20:46,760 --> 00:20:49,560 Speaker 5: Yeah, So I've had this discussion with my friend Mike Green, 422 00:20:49,640 --> 00:20:52,200 Speaker 5: who's been talking about this now for for years, about 423 00:20:52,240 --> 00:20:55,199 Speaker 5: passivity and the impact on markets, and will it just 424 00:20:55,280 --> 00:21:00,400 Speaker 5: simply lead to more disruptive events, meaning everyone going one 425 00:21:00,440 --> 00:21:02,280 Speaker 5: side of the boat but then going to the other 426 00:21:02,320 --> 00:21:06,040 Speaker 5: side of the boat, so flows become much much more important. 427 00:21:06,640 --> 00:21:10,720 Speaker 5: I mean, I certainly have hope that's not the case, inextremists, 428 00:21:10,800 --> 00:21:13,800 Speaker 5: it's certainly happening now, because the fact of the matter 429 00:21:13,920 --> 00:21:18,200 Speaker 5: is is that if we can't differentiate valuations, if it's 430 00:21:18,280 --> 00:21:21,480 Speaker 5: all just a matter of flows, then an important part 431 00:21:21,520 --> 00:21:24,680 Speaker 5: of capitalism and signaling mechanism and capitalism is broke. 432 00:21:25,359 --> 00:21:25,560 Speaker 3: Right. 433 00:21:25,600 --> 00:21:28,800 Speaker 5: You don't want to be sending a lot of money 434 00:21:28,960 --> 00:21:32,919 Speaker 5: to the enrons and world commes and pharrnosis of the world, 435 00:21:33,040 --> 00:21:33,840 Speaker 5: you know, you want to. 436 00:21:33,760 --> 00:21:35,159 Speaker 3: Be sending it to the amazons. 437 00:21:35,240 --> 00:21:39,920 Speaker 5: And so we hope that the market starts differentiating these 438 00:21:40,000 --> 00:21:44,199 Speaker 5: beyond your simple flows and narratives and positioning and all 439 00:21:44,240 --> 00:21:46,960 Speaker 5: the things that everybody watches now like a hawk day 440 00:21:47,000 --> 00:21:49,639 Speaker 5: to day and hour to hour, because if not, we 441 00:21:49,880 --> 00:21:51,440 Speaker 5: got a bigger problem with capitalism. 442 00:21:51,800 --> 00:21:54,040 Speaker 2: Final question to you, what's the single biggest risk you 443 00:21:54,119 --> 00:22:00,000 Speaker 2: see in next six to twelve months. 444 00:21:57,720 --> 00:22:01,840 Speaker 5: Something that I don't see probably, I mean definition, it's 445 00:22:02,200 --> 00:22:06,160 Speaker 5: the stuffy exactly. I mean, look, I think the political 446 00:22:06,200 --> 00:22:09,320 Speaker 5: theater is going to get ratcheted up. It seems that 447 00:22:09,400 --> 00:22:12,960 Speaker 5: way that we're heading to kind of an issue where 448 00:22:13,000 --> 00:22:15,399 Speaker 5: Congress is going to have to say, well, I'm just 449 00:22:15,440 --> 00:22:20,280 Speaker 5: going to abrogate my entire responsibility to the executive branch. 450 00:22:20,640 --> 00:22:22,720 Speaker 3: So I suspect, I suspect. 451 00:22:22,440 --> 00:22:24,840 Speaker 5: Day to day it'll be politics, but the real risks 452 00:22:24,840 --> 00:22:27,080 Speaker 5: will be something like deep seek that comes out of 453 00:22:27,160 --> 00:22:32,080 Speaker 5: left field, that changes people's thinking, and you know, by definition, 454 00:22:32,160 --> 00:22:33,760 Speaker 5: we don't know what that is, all right. 455 00:22:33,720 --> 00:22:38,359 Speaker 2: Causing a complete rethink, a complete reset, perhaps some investor expectations. Jim, 456 00:22:38,440 --> 00:22:40,040 Speaker 2: thank you so much for joining us today. A real 457 00:22:40,080 --> 00:22:42,919 Speaker 2: pleasure speaking with you. Jim Chanos is president and founder 458 00:22:42,960 --> 00:22:45,000 Speaker 2: of Chaos and Company, and I want to thank my 459 00:22:45,040 --> 00:22:46,640 Speaker 2: colleague remained Bossic as well,