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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast, the number one show

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Speaker 1: for the invested sports fan. All right, here we go,

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Speaker 1: throwing out show. We're sitting up to cash touchdown. We'll

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Speaker 1: see the most gamblers when they go to gamble, they

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Speaker 1: go to win. God, that's incredible. Big bank, small banks.

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Speaker 1: I like to make money. All right, that is the

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Speaker 1: ultimate kaba you want to put.

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Speaker 2: And we are underway and welcome to the Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 2: I'm your host, Chris Raybond, and this is the NFL

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Speaker 2: Week seven betting preview. We'll break down our top six

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Speaker 2: spread bets and the Sunday six pack, give you our

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Speaker 2: favorite total teaser, moneyline, parlay, survivor pool pick lots of

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Speaker 2: good stuff, and of course we will start the show

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Speaker 2: breaking down Thursday Night Football. Before we do that, just

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Speaker 2: a reminder go down with the free Action Network app,

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Speaker 2: real time odds, box scores, and the capability to track

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Speaker 2: every bet you make. Now, let's get right into our

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Speaker 2: Thursday Night football preview.

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Speaker 1: It's not the best game, but it's the only game tonight.

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Speaker 1: Let's bet Thursday Night Football.

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Speaker 2: Tonight's matchup is the four and two Kansas City Chiefs

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Speaker 2: going a mile high to visit the two and four

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Speaker 2: Denver Broncos Chiefs favored by three, getting about two thirds

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Speaker 2: of the tickets around two thirds.

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Speaker 1: Of the money as well.

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Speaker 2: The over under has been dropping currently at forty eight

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Speaker 2: and a half, seventy one percent of the bet seventy

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Speaker 2: two percent of the money coming in. There only under

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Speaker 2: and here to help me break down all these games,

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Speaker 2: my guy, the Prime Minister of degenerate Nation.

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Speaker 1: Stuck, How you doing? Hey, what's going on?

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Speaker 2: Brother? Had a pretty good week last week. You know,

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Speaker 2: I know some picks that we oppose each other on

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Speaker 2: hit for me, So I'm sure there'll be more of

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Speaker 2: that in the Sunday sixth. But I actually bet on

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Speaker 2: the Broncos last week, stuck and against the Tennessee Titans.

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Speaker 2: And the reason was I thought that the changes Vic

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Speaker 2: Fangio made to his base defense, adding some bulk, some

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Speaker 2: players playing well, kind of some unproven guys playing well,

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Speaker 2: moving Kareem Jackson back to his natural position at this

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Speaker 2: stage of his career anyway, at safety. I thought that

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Speaker 2: would be enough against a Titans team that struggles to

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Speaker 2: move the ball on offense number thirty one in early down.

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Speaker 1: Pass success rate.

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Speaker 2: Now, I think that coming into this game. A lot

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Speaker 2: of what I like Denver's defense for in that game

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Speaker 2: against Tennessee doesn't really ring true. And that's even with

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Speaker 2: Sammy Watkins out, because the Chiefs are still working in Pringle,

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Speaker 2: Hardman and Robinson behind of course Tyreek Hill, and it's

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Speaker 2: just going to be a totally different matchup from my perspective.

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Speaker 1: So tell me how you feel about.

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Speaker 2: This game, any wins, or just how do you think

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Speaker 2: the matchup will break down.

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Speaker 1: I like Denver a lot here I played Denver. I

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Speaker 1: teased Denver as a teaser for our teaser segment. Really

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Speaker 1: just about this Kansas City team. I mean, Plus, what

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Speaker 1: this Kansasity team right now is is it's basically Patrick

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Speaker 1: Mahomes and that's it. And then it's a not healthy

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Speaker 1: Patrick Mahomes on a short week going to Denver, and

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Speaker 1: you saw it in the second half of the last

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Speaker 1: two games with his ankle. I think Kansas City will

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Speaker 1: really benefit from playing on Thursday for their next game,

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Speaker 1: which I believe is on a Monday night. So love

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Speaker 1: about ten ten days of brest to get healthier, because

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Speaker 1: it's not just Mahomes that's bagged up. This offensive line

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Speaker 1: generally a strong suit of the Chiefs disaster mainly because

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Speaker 1: of injuries. It's basically Mitchell Schwartz on the right side

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Speaker 1: and then a bunch of scrubs, Cam Irving Rank and

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Speaker 1: writer ubernet Tartef. I mean, their offensive line is bad.

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Speaker 1: Tyreek Hill is back, but the Broncos have an elite

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Speaker 1: corner and Chris Harris who will probably shadow him. Chris

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Speaker 1: Harris also played slot a lot in his corner, which

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Speaker 1: Tyreek Hill will also play a lot of, so he'll

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Speaker 1: be comfortable there. The Chiefs injuries at wide receiver, now

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Speaker 1: it's just Robinson and Pringle against the weakest part of

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Speaker 1: the Denver defense, which is those other corners. I don't

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Speaker 1: know if they can take advantage. But on top of

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Speaker 1: all of that, it's the Chiefs defense. I mean, Denver

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Speaker 1: should be able to just line it up and run

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Speaker 1: it right down the Chief's throat, just like everyone can do.

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Speaker 1: We'll get to the Lions game later. The Lions can't

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Speaker 1: run the ball at all. They can't run the ball

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Speaker 1: against anybody. Well, they lined up around a forty three

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Speaker 1: times for two hundred yards against the Chiefs. Anybody can

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Speaker 1: do it, especially Denver, and this Chief's defense is it's

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Speaker 1: just a raging dumpster fire. It looks like the Kendall

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Speaker 1: Fuller will also be out as their slot corner, but

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Speaker 1: Sanders and Sutton are healthy on the outside. But mainly

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Speaker 1: its just they're going to be able to get four

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Speaker 1: five yards whenever they want up the middle. And the

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Speaker 1: only respectable defender on this Chiefs defense is Chris Jones,

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Speaker 1: and he looks like he's out up the middle. They

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Speaker 1: don't get any pressure on the outside, so you're not

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Speaker 1: going to take advantage of, you know, the statue at

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Speaker 1: his flaco and then some weak offensive tackles on the

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Speaker 1: Broncos side. I mean, if you look, go go to

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Speaker 1: Pro Football Focus and you just pull up all edge

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Speaker 1: rushers minimum one hundred snaps, there's sixty of them. Three

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Speaker 1: of the bottom six in terms of past rush productivity

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Speaker 1: are Chiefs. The only one with a damn is Agua

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Speaker 1: and he's not even in the top thirty. I mean,

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Speaker 1: this defense is just really bad. I think the Broncos

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Speaker 1: are going to be able to just run it whenever

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Speaker 1: they want, pick up first downs whenever they want, and

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Speaker 1: Mahomes just isn't healthy and that offensive line is a mess.

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Speaker 1: So on a short week, give me Denver at home

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Speaker 1: catching anything at a field goal or above.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, so I agree with you stutt for you know,

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Speaker 2: all those concerns are valid regarding the Chiefs. They can't

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Speaker 2: stop the run. A little bit banged up Mahomes, he

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Speaker 2: was really affected in that game against the Colts. That

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Speaker 2: was the one that was surprising, visibly limping and it

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Speaker 2: probably cost him a close game that they win if

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Speaker 2: Mahomes can move around a little bit better. But all

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Speaker 2: of these things have kind of conspired to put this

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Speaker 2: in a line where you know, Chiefs minus three Chiefs

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Speaker 2: mining I think the numbers should.

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Speaker 1: Still be higher than that.

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Speaker 2: And here's the reason why I get that the Chiefs

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Speaker 2: can't stop the run, but they've never been a great

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Speaker 2: run defense. Now, the run, obviously it's about half as

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Speaker 2: important as the past in the league, just you know,

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Speaker 2: based on the sheer fact that teams pass twice as much.

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Speaker 2: But if you just look at you know, the correlations

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Speaker 2: between that and point differential, that's what you find to

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Speaker 2: be true.

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Speaker 1: So the thing that's most important is passing the football.

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Speaker 2: Do I think Denver has some matchups that they can

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Speaker 2: put up some yards and score some points.

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Speaker 1: Probably?

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Speaker 2: I think we're probably overreacting to this total with it,

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Speaker 2: you know, dropping as much as it has now. I

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Speaker 2: think it's down to forty eight or forty eight five,

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Speaker 2: which I think probably is too low. Maybe it deserves

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Speaker 2: to drop to that, to the forty nine mark from fifty,

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Speaker 2: but it's continued to drop.

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Speaker 1: I don't know if that's right.

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Speaker 2: But you have to look at these passing offenses and

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Speaker 2: the difference, and the bottom line is, especially with Tyreek hillback,

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Speaker 2: Let's not forget they have Travis Kelsey. Let's not forget

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Speaker 2: Andy Reid is one of the best schemers in terms

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Speaker 2: of getting his running backs efficient yardage in the past game,

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Speaker 2: which really isn't that efficient of a play, even though

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Speaker 2: it's become more and more popular throwing the running backs,

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Speaker 2: Andy Reid is like the one exception to that rule.

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Speaker 2: So give me the better pass offense in this spot,

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Speaker 2: give me the better team in this spot, and especially

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Speaker 2: on a short week. Yes, the Chiefs are a little

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Speaker 2: bang up, but the Broncos I think where they're banged up,

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Speaker 2: I disagree. I think the Chiefs can absolutely exploit their

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Speaker 2: cornerbacks on the outside. Yes, Chris Harris will do his thing,

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Speaker 2: but Number one, Tyreek Ko can beat any corner, including

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Speaker 2: Chris Harris, because he can just run by him. Number two,

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Speaker 2: we've seen Robinson, We've seen Pringle two and Hardman. All

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Speaker 2: three of those guys have huge games. And it's not

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Speaker 2: because those guys are amazing receivers. They're decent. It's because

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Speaker 2: they're with Patrick Mahomes and this Andy Reid system. So

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Speaker 2: I think on these short weeks on Thursday nights in general,

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Speaker 2: you know, home road, whatever the favorite is, usually the play.

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Speaker 2: It hasn't come through as much this year, but if

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Speaker 2: you look back, there's only been one road favorite this

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Speaker 2: year on Thursday Night and they did not cover. But

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Speaker 2: going back to two thousand and three, thirty seven and

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Speaker 2: twenty nine against the spread fifty six percent, and of

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Speaker 2: course home favorites are even better. But you know, Andy

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Speaker 2: Reid on the road in his career covers out of

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Speaker 2: sixty percent. Clip with KC it's sixty six percent. You know,

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Speaker 2: there's just a lot of things that kind of point

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Speaker 2: to for me. Anyway, a Chiefs bounce back, I think

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Speaker 2: they could just outscore the Broncos by enough to cover

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Speaker 2: the number.

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Speaker 1: I don't think this.

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Speaker 2: Will be like a defensive struggle because again, I think

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Speaker 2: that the Broncos are.

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Speaker 1: Suited to beat teams with their base.

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Speaker 2: Defense, which is why a lot of people weren't really

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Speaker 2: on them going against the Titans, which you know, I thought, hey,

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Speaker 2: you know, the game is not going to get out

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Speaker 2: of hand to the extent that they can't stay in

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Speaker 2: base and you know, kind of shut down the run.

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Speaker 2: But Andy Reid won't run if he doesn't have to do.

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Speaker 2: The more times Patrick Mahomes throws. I just think that

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Speaker 2: they're going to be able to separate from the from

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Speaker 2: the Broncos here.

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Speaker 1: The Chiefs offense is just I mean, you could say

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Speaker 1: they could run by everybody. I mean, number one, the

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Speaker 1: Denver safeties are playing really good football. The Chiefs offense

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Speaker 1: right now is is broken. They went twenty five games,

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Speaker 1: most in NFL history, twenty five games scoring twenty five

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Speaker 1: points or more. Sure, bet you can make the Chiefs

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Speaker 1: will scored twenty five or more. Well, they played the

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Speaker 1: last two at home they play and they didn't score

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Speaker 1: twenty five. They scored thirteen against the Colts team without

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Speaker 1: both of their safeties, without their best middle linebacker. That

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Speaker 1: two days before practice said you know what, we're gonna

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Speaker 1: play man because we'll lose if we play zone. And

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Speaker 1: they played man and manned up the Chiefs wide receivers

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Speaker 1: and shutdown of banged up Mahomes. Same thing with the Texans.

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Speaker 1: Texans in that second half held the Chiefs the seven points.

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Speaker 1: The Chiefs went up seventeen three in the first quarter,

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Speaker 1: seven points the rest of the way against the Texans secondary.

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Speaker 1: That is a garbage can. So, I mean, Mahomes finished

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Speaker 1: that game nineteen of thirty five for two seventy three,

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Speaker 1: you know, fifty four percent. That's you know, it's good,

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Speaker 1: but it's not typical Mahomes. And he looked worse than

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Speaker 1: the second half. And I think on a short week

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Speaker 1: it also limits what Andy Reid can scheme up. But

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Speaker 1: just the offensive line right now for the Chiefs is

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Speaker 1: giving Mahomes no time. And if he isn't one hundred

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Speaker 1: percent healthy and able to move around, you know, he's

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Speaker 1: not going to be able to make as many plays

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Speaker 1: down the field and is receiving corps banged up. So yeah,

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Speaker 1: And I think on the other side of the ball, dever,

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Speaker 1: with Sanders and Sutton against I mean, the Chiefs corners

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Speaker 1: are terrible too. I think the Broncos will be able

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Speaker 1: to throw at some too, but the Chiefs just can't

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Speaker 1: generate any edge pressure.

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Speaker 2: The Chiefs they know that their corner aren't the strongest.

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Speaker 2: But they have a new defensive coordinator this year, Steve

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Speaker 2: speG Nola. The Chiefs team actually only fifty one percent

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Speaker 2: of opponent targets have gone to wide receivers the league

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Speaker 2: averages sixty percent. They have been funneling the ball underneath

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Speaker 2: and inside, so tight ends are actually getting thirty percent

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Speaker 2: of the look. So they can scheme to an extent

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Speaker 2: to kind of mask that. Now I do agree, I

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Speaker 2: think Fuller is a big loss, but I think that,

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Speaker 2: like again, there's just so many of things that have

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Speaker 2: transpired that have kind of put this line at a

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Speaker 2: spot where I think it's begging to take the Chiefs,

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Speaker 2: and it feels like the sharp play to take the Broncos.

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Speaker 2: But even that Houston defense I think is being underrated

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Speaker 2: because if you look at the underlying metrics, like I

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Speaker 2: tell you, I always like to look at early down

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Speaker 2: a success rate because it takes some of the noise

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Speaker 2: out of you know, the yardage numbers and.

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Speaker 1: All that stuff.

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Speaker 2: Houston's defense is number three against the run, which fine,

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Speaker 2: but they're also number six against the past. This is

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Speaker 2: a better Houston defense than I think people think. Also

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Speaker 2: a better Colts defense than I think people are aware of.

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Speaker 2: So I think that the Denver Broncos come back down

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Speaker 2: to earth. And I mean you said it. Chiefs scored

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Speaker 2: twenty five or more in twenty five of twenty of

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Speaker 2: their last twenty seven games, so the last time they

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Speaker 2: did it, Like, what do you think is going to happen?

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Speaker 2: They're going to get right and I.

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Speaker 1: Think that this. I think once they get healthy, yeah,

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Speaker 1: they'll be right back what they're now. Right now, they're

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Speaker 1: gonna get You're gonna see Sanders in the slot and like, look,

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Speaker 1: the Chiefs know that they're not getting any pressure and

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Speaker 1: they still can't scheme it. They didn't against the Colts.

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Speaker 1: Said zero sacks against the Texicanas.

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Speaker 2: Now we get ninety points because not like they got

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Speaker 2: blown out of the building on defense by the Colts.

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Speaker 2: They still got nineteen thirty one Deshaun Watson who had

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Speaker 2: just put up fifty five the previous game. So I'm

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Speaker 2: not knocking them for that, you know what I mean?

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Speaker 1: Like, yeah, but they're Patrick Mahomes scoring seven points over

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Speaker 1: the last three quarters at home against the Texans and

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Speaker 1: a total of ten points against the Colts at home.

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Speaker 2: The offense at creates value on the line that will

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Speaker 2: say no, but yeah, I think the last point is

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Speaker 2: just that, I mean, the Broncos haven't exactly been the

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Speaker 2: greatest at getting pressure, which was another reason I liked

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Speaker 2: them against the Titans.

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Speaker 1: So should be an interesting matchup. So I've been saying

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Speaker 1: all year the Broncos are better than people giving them

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Speaker 1: credit for it. They lost, They lost to the Jags

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Speaker 1: at the last second, the Bears at the last second,

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Speaker 1: and they got really kind of got hose on a

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Speaker 1: couple of plays up in Green Bay. Now they're starting,

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Speaker 1: you know, starting to show that they're not like one

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Speaker 1: of the bottom feeders of the NFL anything. On the

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Speaker 1: over under it has been dropping.

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Speaker 2: Do you do you like to kind of go contrarian

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Speaker 2: or do you think the Chiefs offense continues to struggle

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Speaker 2: and you would play the under or just no, bet

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Speaker 2: I have no field.

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Speaker 1: It feels about right, I mean, I don't. I mean,

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Speaker 1: it wouldn't shock me at the Chiefs get to twentiest

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Speaker 1: twenty twenty four. I mean, you know, some of its

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Speaker 1: speculation that on a short week, I don't think Mahomes

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Speaker 1: is going to be fully healthy in the second half

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Speaker 1: of the last two games particular, I mean all throughout

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Speaker 1: the Colts game in the second half last week, he

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Speaker 1: didn't look his mobile. And then now it's a short week.

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Speaker 1: So if I had to bet it, I look at

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Speaker 1: the under. But it feels about right to me. I

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Speaker 1: could see easily see, you know, at twenty seven to

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Speaker 1: twenty four, twenty four to twenty game.

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Speaker 2: All right, So, as we do every week, let's conclude

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Speaker 2: our Thursday night football breakdown with the coaches pep Talk.

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Speaker 2: Today's coaches pep Talk comes from manager Lou Brown from

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Speaker 2: the film Major League, dedicated to the Denver Broncos, who

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Speaker 2: have one and covered in two straight.

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Speaker 1: One more, and that's called a winning streak.

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Speaker 3: We won a game yesterday, we win one today. That's

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Speaker 3: two in a row. We win one tomorrow. That's called

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Speaker 3: a winning streak. It has happened before.

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Speaker 1: So let's see some hustle. Let's jug it up a little.

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Speaker 3: I got a feeling things are about to turn around

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Speaker 3: for us.

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Speaker 2: And before we move on to the main event, the

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Speaker 2: Sunday six Pack let's hear from Action Network two messons

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Speaker 2: expert Matthew Friedman.

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Speaker 4: I hope you're enjoying this great Action Network podcast. I

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Speaker 4: want to make sure you know about the Locked On

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Speaker 4: podcast network locked On as a daily podcast on your

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Speaker 4: favorite team.

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Speaker 1: Welcome to you, Lockdown forty nine ers. You were locked

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Speaker 1: on of the Dallas marrige. Wekome everybody to the Locked

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Speaker 1: On Lakers podcast. Let's Go.

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Speaker 4: Locked On podcasts are hosted by the local experts who

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Speaker 4: know your team better than anyone and give you the

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Speaker 4: inside scoop. So go to your podcast app and search

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Speaker 4: locked On your favorite team. Subscribe to your locked on podcast.

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Speaker 2: Thanks for that very special message, Matthew. All right, stuck,

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Speaker 2: time for the main event. Let's get into it, the

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Speaker 2: Sunday six.

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Speaker 1: Pack Thursday for Actions. Let's crack open the Sunday six Pack.

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Speaker 2: All right, so, of course we keep score of our

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Speaker 2: picks every week. Last week I continued my streak two

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Speaker 2: sweeps in a row, ten to ten. You you got

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Speaker 2: three out of five last week, so not bad for

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Speaker 2: the season.

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Speaker 1: I'm up twenty eighteen. We got I'm going with this

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Speaker 1: first time I've had them in my six pack. Don't

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Speaker 1: know me. I am a Ravens fan. People that do

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Speaker 1: know me know that I'm a ratings and an unbiased one.

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Speaker 1: I never bet them because I just want to bet them,

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Speaker 1: and I will gladly bet against them. But I think

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Speaker 1: catching over three here, I have plus three and a

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Speaker 1: half anything over a field goal against the Seahawks, who

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Speaker 1: I continue to just not believe it. Now. They keep

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Speaker 1: pulling out magic wins. Four of their five wins have

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Speaker 1: come by a combined eight points, so I'm sure they'll

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Speaker 1: find they'll find a way to win by one on

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Speaker 1: a Russell Wilson last minute drive in the fourth quarter,

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Speaker 1: which he's done I think three times this year for wins.

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Speaker 1: But look, the Seahawks are getting absolutely perfect play from

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Speaker 1: Russell Wilson. He's had over one hundred quarterback rating in

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Speaker 1: the first six weeks. I think only three other quarterbacks

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Speaker 1: have done that in the history of the NFL, Rogers

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Speaker 1: Brady both in their MVP years and I think Carson

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Speaker 1: Palmer did it for the Bengals back and I think,

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Speaker 1: oh six, So it's only happened three times, and he's

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Speaker 1: playing absolutely perfect, and they still need these last second

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Speaker 1: wins and they're winning games by one or two against

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Speaker 1: backup quarterbacks of teams. Last week, they got four turnovers, awful,

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Speaker 1: some awful Mayfield picks. They allowed six point seven yards

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Speaker 1: per play to the Browns. They got some bullshit legal

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Speaker 1: blocking call on the Browns. But the Freddy Kitchens thing,

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Speaker 1: and it's just it's insane. Now, Look, these teams are

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Speaker 1: really similar, the Ravens and the Seahawks. I actually have

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Speaker 1: the Ravens rated about a point better, so anything a

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Speaker 1: field goal or more, I would take the Ravens here.

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Speaker 1: And they're very similar. They don't get they're not getting

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Speaker 1: a ton of pressure this year. They're run heavy offenses.

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Speaker 1: They're one of I think you know four or five

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Speaker 1: teams that run it about fifty percent of the time

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Speaker 1: or more. They're in the top five in the NFL

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Speaker 1: and rush percentage. They have mobile quarterbacks who can make

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Speaker 1: plays happen out of the pocket, and then they've had

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Speaker 1: some question marks on defense. So they're you know, they

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00:16:49,320 --> 00:16:52,120
Speaker 1: profile pretty similar. And they've also played nobody. You know,

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Speaker 1: the Ravens are four and two, the Seahawks are five

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Speaker 1: and one. They've played absolutely nobody this year, not like

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Speaker 1: the forty nine ers and the Patriots, who have. I

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Speaker 1: think they're combined. Their win percentage of their opponents is

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Speaker 1: like twenty six percent.

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Speaker 2: Last week, I did say the brown suck, and you're like,

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Speaker 2: ah nah, they're pretty big. Just out.

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Speaker 1: They played good enough to win at home. They just

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Speaker 1: made so many mistakes they did. They made a ton

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Speaker 1: of mistakes. Mayfield made a bunch of froze that I

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Speaker 1: didn't think he would make it. But they got six

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Speaker 1: point seven yards per play a defensive line that that's

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Speaker 1: what the Dolphins allow, and that's last in the NFL. So,

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Speaker 1: I mean, the Browns were getting whatever the fuck they

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Speaker 1: wanted where they just pulled the Browns. It was like, oh,

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Speaker 1: you know years past when I was the only one

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Speaker 1: in the world on the Browns and then the line,

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Speaker 1: I get two and a half points of line value

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Speaker 1: and the Browns shit the bed in typical Browns fashion.

385
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Speaker 1: But let me point out a couple of things here. First,

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Speaker 1: one of the biggest differentiators between these two teams. The

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Speaker 1: difference is special teams, and that is one of the

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Speaker 1: things that can make a huge difference. Number One Seahawks

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Speaker 1: are They're just miserable punt returning last two years higher Lockett,

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Speaker 1: he i don't know if it's the coverage or what.

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Speaker 1: Raven's one of the best punt return units in football

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Speaker 1: the last two years obviously have Justin Tucker. He's thirteen

393
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Speaker 1: or thirteen this year, six to six, forty plus Jason

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Speaker 1: Myers one of three forty plus five of seven. It's

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00:18:01,359 --> 00:18:02,919
Speaker 1: the best kicker in the NFL. Stoy, He's always going

396
00:18:02,960 --> 00:18:06,720
Speaker 1: to have an advantage the punting. I mean, Ravens again

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00:18:06,840 --> 00:18:10,560
Speaker 1: great punting, their third in the NFL, and net punning

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00:18:10,600 --> 00:18:13,280
Speaker 1: forty five point seven yards Dixon net is like forty

399
00:18:13,320 --> 00:18:17,320
Speaker 1: it's bottom five in the NFL. So you know, the

400
00:18:17,520 --> 00:18:19,840
Speaker 1: special teams, it's about five yards of field position to

401
00:18:19,920 --> 00:18:22,159
Speaker 1: drive and then you're gonna have field goals that you

402
00:18:22,200 --> 00:18:24,040
Speaker 1: might miss on the Seahawks side, even an extra point

403
00:18:24,080 --> 00:18:26,000
Speaker 1: which Myers has missed, and then a punt that pins

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Speaker 1: a team deep. Those are the things that can really

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Speaker 1: make a difference when you have two evenly matched teams.

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Speaker 1: But let me get into and then the Seahawks offense

407
00:18:32,800 --> 00:18:35,199
Speaker 1: a line which you know, the Ravens blitz more than

408
00:18:35,200 --> 00:18:37,639
Speaker 1: any team in the NFL about fifty percent of plays.

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Speaker 1: The Seahawks offensive line might be without three starters again,

410
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Speaker 1: and it could be you know, starting Effetti and Fan. Well,

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00:18:45,720 --> 00:18:48,159
Speaker 1: if you look at pass blocking efficiency out of seventy

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Speaker 1: one tackles, Efetti and ranked seventieth and seventy first out

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Speaker 1: of seventy one. By the way, Rodney Stanley for the

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Speaker 1: Ravens left tackle maybe the best NFL right now, Rex

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Speaker 1: number one, and you know Mark Andrews. Assume he's healthy,

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Speaker 1: I think he can have a huge day. Of the

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Speaker 1: Seahawks are terrible against tight ends. Tedrick Thompson worst cover

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Speaker 1: safety in the NFL. Again, I'll mention that, so he

419
00:19:08,000 --> 00:19:10,399
Speaker 1: can have a big day. But people don't understand what

420
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Speaker 1: the addition of Marcus Peters can do to this defense.

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00:19:13,680 --> 00:19:17,520
Speaker 1: Their biggest weak point of the Ravens defense. People say,

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Speaker 1: now they can't cover deep balls. No they can. They've

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00:19:19,960 --> 00:19:21,679
Speaker 1: no one's thrown the ball more than thirty yards down

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Speaker 1: the field and completed this year. The only team the

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Speaker 1: NFL they can say that they're getting the ball out quick.

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Speaker 1: And then there's missed the Simons and then people have

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Speaker 1: a lot of yak after because the second quarter for

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00:19:29,040 --> 00:19:31,640
Speaker 1: the Ravens has been absolutely miserable. And I watch these

429
00:19:31,640 --> 00:19:34,359
Speaker 1: games very closely. What's killing the Ravens is he's underneath routes.

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Speaker 1: Their linebackers aren't great in cover, and quarterbacks are just

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Speaker 1: getting a ball off quick because the Ravens just blitz.

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Speaker 1: I mean, they'll do all ot blitzes more than any

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Speaker 1: team in the NFL. Marcus Peters now gives them a

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00:19:43,280 --> 00:19:45,760
Speaker 1: viable second cool winner and they'll probably say, Peters, you

435
00:19:45,800 --> 00:19:47,520
Speaker 1: stick to the left side of the field, Humphrey to

436
00:19:47,520 --> 00:19:50,200
Speaker 1: the right. It's not like the Seahawks have a dominant

437
00:19:50,240 --> 00:19:52,240
Speaker 1: number one that you want to shadow. And that's when

438
00:19:52,280 --> 00:19:55,600
Speaker 1: Peters is at his best. And then you can disguis cover.

439
00:19:55,680 --> 00:19:57,680
Speaker 1: You can disguis coverages, you can disguise Blitzer marks. You

440
00:19:57,720 --> 00:19:59,600
Speaker 1: don't know, Okay, Humphrey's going to be falling around the

441
00:19:59,600 --> 00:20:02,159
Speaker 1: one blah blah blah. But the biggest misconception out there

442
00:20:02,200 --> 00:20:04,880
Speaker 1: is Marcus Peters can't play press man. And I said,

443
00:20:04,880 --> 00:20:06,399
Speaker 1: you know what I used to think to Marcus Peters.

444
00:20:06,440 --> 00:20:08,359
Speaker 1: I've been thinking he's only can play zone because he

445
00:20:08,840 --> 00:20:11,080
Speaker 1: jumps routes and he gets caught and sometimes he's a

446
00:20:11,160 --> 00:20:13,720
Speaker 1: very aggressive corner. I said, well, why would you know

447
00:20:13,760 --> 00:20:15,639
Speaker 1: Wade Phillips want him, who likes to play out of

448
00:20:15,640 --> 00:20:17,359
Speaker 1: press man and the why would the Ravens trade for him?

449
00:20:17,400 --> 00:20:19,399
Speaker 1: They played man as much as any team in the

450
00:20:19,440 --> 00:20:22,680
Speaker 1: NFL outside of the Patriots and Lions. They played pressman too,

451
00:20:22,880 --> 00:20:24,800
Speaker 1: So I said, this can't be truth. So I went

452
00:20:24,800 --> 00:20:26,399
Speaker 1: back and I'm like, all right, Marcus Peters, he was

453
00:20:26,440 --> 00:20:28,840
Speaker 1: known as a man corner in college. I went back.

454
00:20:29,080 --> 00:20:31,240
Speaker 1: He just wasn't healthy last year. This year he's a

455
00:20:31,280 --> 00:20:35,200
Speaker 1: top fifteen corner per Pro Football Focus. He's I think

456
00:20:35,200 --> 00:20:38,560
Speaker 1: he leads the NFL in coverage yards per snap. If

457
00:20:38,600 --> 00:20:41,479
Speaker 1: you go back in twenty seventeen, just look at Marcus

458
00:20:41,480 --> 00:20:43,639
Speaker 1: Peters's ratings. I mean you can go go to Pro

459
00:20:43,640 --> 00:20:48,320
Speaker 1: Football Focus. His coverage ratings twenty sixteen, seventy eight, twenty

460
00:20:48,400 --> 00:20:53,000
Speaker 1: seventeen eighty this year seventy seven. Last year fifty eight.

461
00:20:53,080 --> 00:20:55,440
Speaker 1: And I said it all last year on the podcast,

462
00:20:55,480 --> 00:20:56,879
Speaker 1: wrote about it. He wasn't healthy and he missed a

463
00:20:56,880 --> 00:20:58,960
Speaker 1: bunch of games. And the Brands are playing more zone

464
00:20:59,000 --> 00:21:00,520
Speaker 1: this year, and Wade's come out that we're trying to

465
00:21:00,520 --> 00:21:02,240
Speaker 1: get more turnovers. But if you go back to that

466
00:21:02,240 --> 00:21:05,560
Speaker 1: twenty seventeen team, when Marcus Peters was one of the

467
00:21:05,600 --> 00:21:09,480
Speaker 1: best cover corners in the NFL. You know, around man

468
00:21:09,520 --> 00:21:11,400
Speaker 1: more than any other team in the NFL that year,

469
00:21:11,480 --> 00:21:13,760
Speaker 1: the Kansas City Chiefs. They're in cover one fifty percent

470
00:21:13,760 --> 00:21:15,719
Speaker 1: of the time. I think only one other team ran

471
00:21:15,800 --> 00:21:18,240
Speaker 1: at more than forty. But just having that second corner.

472
00:21:18,280 --> 00:21:20,919
Speaker 1: Even if you don't think Marcus Peters is great, he

473
00:21:20,960 --> 00:21:23,679
Speaker 1: already played the Seahawks, and obviously Earl Thomas was the Seahawks,

474
00:21:23,720 --> 00:21:26,080
Speaker 1: but him already playing the Seahawks is big. He is

475
00:21:26,119 --> 00:21:28,439
Speaker 1: a huge upgrade over Anthony Ever and all the injuries

476
00:21:28,480 --> 00:21:30,640
Speaker 1: that the Ravens have had, so and he will allow

477
00:21:30,680 --> 00:21:32,760
Speaker 1: the Ravens defense to do so much more. And all

478
00:21:32,760 --> 00:21:34,639
Speaker 1: they want to do Bart Gales, all he wants to

479
00:21:34,680 --> 00:21:37,240
Speaker 1: do is blitz. So the siding of Marcus Peters, don't

480
00:21:37,280 --> 00:21:39,439
Speaker 1: sleep on it, and watch just mark my words, how

481
00:21:39,440 --> 00:21:40,800
Speaker 1: effective it's in press Man.

482
00:21:40,960 --> 00:21:42,760
Speaker 2: You know, with the line being at three and a half,

483
00:21:42,840 --> 00:21:44,200
Speaker 2: the Ravens are probably the right play.

484
00:21:44,359 --> 00:21:45,840
Speaker 1: I don't disagree with anything you said.

485
00:21:46,119 --> 00:21:48,480
Speaker 2: The only thing that always worries me about these spots

486
00:21:48,520 --> 00:21:51,800
Speaker 2: is when you're betting against Russell Wilson at home thirty

487
00:21:51,800 --> 00:21:54,520
Speaker 2: six twenty six and two against the spread in his career.

488
00:21:54,720 --> 00:21:56,760
Speaker 2: Seahawks are covering at the fourth highest rate at home

489
00:21:56,760 --> 00:21:59,800
Speaker 2: fifty eight point one percent since he took over as

490
00:21:59,800 --> 00:22:02,840
Speaker 2: the you be. There's a potential here to get really angry,

491
00:22:03,200 --> 00:22:05,560
Speaker 2: so I'm probably gonna stay away from it. But for

492
00:22:05,600 --> 00:22:08,680
Speaker 2: my number one pick, I'm going with the Philadelphia Eagles

493
00:22:08,920 --> 00:22:12,119
Speaker 2: plus three visiting the Dallas Cowboys, and we're starting to

494
00:22:12,160 --> 00:22:14,000
Speaker 2: see this line actually get juiced up. I don't think

495
00:22:14,000 --> 00:22:15,640
Speaker 2: that the books are going to come off the key

496
00:22:15,720 --> 00:22:19,080
Speaker 2: number of three because people love to bet on the Cowboys.

497
00:22:18,760 --> 00:22:21,120
Speaker 1: So much as well. But the reason I.

498
00:22:21,080 --> 00:22:23,760
Speaker 2: Like the Eagles on this spot is I think, you know,

499
00:22:23,840 --> 00:22:26,359
Speaker 2: all things considered, but if you just compare both of

500
00:22:26,359 --> 00:22:29,040
Speaker 2: these teams straight up, assuming both of them are at

501
00:22:29,040 --> 00:22:32,480
Speaker 2: full health, I think the Eagles are the better team

502
00:22:32,640 --> 00:22:36,919
Speaker 2: by not a huge margin, but a substantial enough margin

503
00:22:37,280 --> 00:22:39,480
Speaker 2: that you know, both teams a little bit banged up.

504
00:22:39,520 --> 00:22:41,520
Speaker 2: I think the Cowboys probably at this point even more

505
00:22:41,560 --> 00:22:44,359
Speaker 2: banged up. Eagles getting a little bit healthier in the

506
00:22:44,400 --> 00:22:48,199
Speaker 2: secondary expecting some guys back this week. So I like

507
00:22:48,280 --> 00:22:50,960
Speaker 2: the value on this pick because I think, you know,

508
00:22:51,080 --> 00:22:52,920
Speaker 2: all things considered, Let's just say though it was plus

509
00:22:52,920 --> 00:22:55,359
Speaker 2: three Eagles and we weren't even talking about Tyron Smith

510
00:22:55,359 --> 00:22:57,720
Speaker 2: potentially being out of Collins, potentially being out of Amari

511
00:22:57,760 --> 00:23:00,960
Speaker 2: Cooper potentially being out. I would still like the Eagles

512
00:23:00,960 --> 00:23:04,280
Speaker 2: in this spot, so to get them when I think

513
00:23:04,320 --> 00:23:08,280
Speaker 2: that the Cowboys injuries may outweigh what the Eagles have

514
00:23:08,320 --> 00:23:10,119
Speaker 2: been struggling through in their secondary. With them getting a

515
00:23:10,160 --> 00:23:12,560
Speaker 2: little healthier now and coming off with a bow out

516
00:23:12,600 --> 00:23:15,440
Speaker 2: Austin Minnesota who previously wasn't really passing the ball that well,

517
00:23:15,480 --> 00:23:17,800
Speaker 2: I think some of the public probably is hesitant to

518
00:23:17,840 --> 00:23:19,960
Speaker 2: back them, but I think this is a better football team.

519
00:23:20,080 --> 00:23:22,240
Speaker 2: I think that, you know, obviously some injuries concerns of

520
00:23:22,280 --> 00:23:24,000
Speaker 2: their own, but it kind of reminds me of when

521
00:23:24,000 --> 00:23:26,920
Speaker 2: they were able to go into Lambofield. They still be

522
00:23:26,960 --> 00:23:28,720
Speaker 2: able with ton of yards to Devonte Adams, although he

523
00:23:28,760 --> 00:23:30,400
Speaker 2: got hurt at the wrong time for the spreen Bay

524
00:23:30,440 --> 00:23:31,360
Speaker 2: but gave up.

525
00:23:31,280 --> 00:23:33,359
Speaker 1: A ton of yards, but they were able to get.

526
00:23:33,200 --> 00:23:36,480
Speaker 2: Time we stops and this Eagle team just they are

527
00:23:36,720 --> 00:23:39,359
Speaker 2: a pretty solid overall defense. They're actually in the top

528
00:23:39,400 --> 00:23:42,320
Speaker 2: ten in both early down run and pass success rate.

529
00:23:42,800 --> 00:23:45,000
Speaker 2: A lot of the issues with them is just simply

530
00:23:45,040 --> 00:23:47,840
Speaker 2: the injuries have kind of made you know, they've given

531
00:23:47,880 --> 00:23:49,720
Speaker 2: up some big plays, and the overall numbers.

532
00:23:49,480 --> 00:23:50,160
Speaker 1: Don't look as good.

533
00:23:50,160 --> 00:23:52,360
Speaker 2: But I think this is the Eagles team that can

534
00:23:52,560 --> 00:23:55,240
Speaker 2: compete with the Cowboys the same way that the Green

535
00:23:55,280 --> 00:23:57,800
Speaker 2: Bay Packers did and the same way that the Jets

536
00:23:57,960 --> 00:24:00,159
Speaker 2: did last week when and you call this stuff, it

537
00:24:00,200 --> 00:24:02,680
Speaker 2: wasn't that much of a disparity between a Jets team

538
00:24:02,680 --> 00:24:05,080
Speaker 2: with a healthy quarterback playing at home in the Cowboys,

539
00:24:05,080 --> 00:24:06,840
Speaker 2: and I don't think there's much of one even with

540
00:24:06,880 --> 00:24:08,560
Speaker 2: the Eagles on the road, because I think they're the

541
00:24:08,600 --> 00:24:10,479
Speaker 2: better team than at least these Cowboys right now.

542
00:24:10,600 --> 00:24:12,760
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, the Cowboys injuries have to be a

543
00:24:12,760 --> 00:24:15,040
Speaker 1: big story. I mean there's some play calling issues and

544
00:24:15,240 --> 00:24:17,200
Speaker 1: other things, but I mean, but you're telling me Kellen

545
00:24:17,200 --> 00:24:20,400
Speaker 1: Moore isn't the safe After Week one, him and Arthur

546
00:24:20,440 --> 00:24:23,639
Speaker 1: Smith where the of the NFL, and then all of

547
00:24:23,680 --> 00:24:26,680
Speaker 1: a sudden, it's back to reality. It's easier cold plays

548
00:24:26,680 --> 00:24:28,760
Speaker 1: when you play like the Dolphins. He tricked me for

549
00:24:28,800 --> 00:24:30,080
Speaker 1: a little bit and then you know, but they were

550
00:24:30,119 --> 00:24:32,000
Speaker 1: playing just some of the worst teams in the NFL.

551
00:24:32,119 --> 00:24:33,760
Speaker 1: But yeah, that you have to mention their injuries because

552
00:24:33,760 --> 00:24:36,960
Speaker 1: with al Tyron Smith and Lyyle Collins, probably the best

553
00:24:36,960 --> 00:24:40,800
Speaker 1: tackle duel. That's huge, you know, and it's so without them,

554
00:24:41,080 --> 00:24:43,560
Speaker 1: you're playing the Eagles team that can get pressure, that's

555
00:24:43,600 --> 00:24:45,480
Speaker 1: going to bring the blitz. You're not gonna able to

556
00:24:45,520 --> 00:24:47,080
Speaker 1: run it against the Eagles. No one runs it against

557
00:24:47,080 --> 00:24:49,240
Speaker 1: the Eagles. Eagles given up three point three yards per carry.

558
00:24:49,440 --> 00:24:51,600
Speaker 1: You can't get anything up in the middle of their

559
00:24:51,680 --> 00:24:54,320
Speaker 1: d So they're going to you know, Zekgal get his

560
00:24:54,320 --> 00:24:56,160
Speaker 1: his yards, but he's not going to you know, set

561
00:24:56,200 --> 00:24:59,040
Speaker 1: the world on fire. You also Byron Jones, Anthony Brown.

562
00:24:59,480 --> 00:25:02,240
Speaker 1: You know, Amari Cooper and Cobb might not play, so

563
00:25:02,680 --> 00:25:05,600
Speaker 1: you know it's not the the And don't worry about

564
00:25:05,680 --> 00:25:07,959
Speaker 1: Jason Witten. And even if wanted to take care of him,

565
00:25:08,000 --> 00:25:11,160
Speaker 1: Jenkins could cover him. So the biggest weak point of

566
00:25:11,240 --> 00:25:14,359
Speaker 1: the Eagles is their secondary because of some injuries. And

567
00:25:14,400 --> 00:25:16,840
Speaker 1: you can hit some really big deep plays on them,

568
00:25:17,080 --> 00:25:21,120
Speaker 1: but you know, without the protection and without their healthy

569
00:25:21,640 --> 00:25:24,520
Speaker 1: group of wide receivers, I don't think it's much of

570
00:25:24,560 --> 00:25:27,600
Speaker 1: a concern. The one concern you have for the Eagles

571
00:25:27,880 --> 00:25:30,560
Speaker 1: on offense is will DeShawn Jackson play. So this offense

572
00:25:30,600 --> 00:25:33,560
Speaker 1: is still lacking explosiveness. Yep, you know, once they get

573
00:25:33,560 --> 00:25:36,960
Speaker 1: to Sean Jackson. Not only do you have that explosiveness factor,

574
00:25:37,280 --> 00:25:39,760
Speaker 1: it'll also open up stuff underneath, you know, for your

575
00:25:39,800 --> 00:25:42,600
Speaker 1: crossings for Jeffrey for Erk's over the middle. So but

576
00:25:42,720 --> 00:25:44,720
Speaker 1: you know he might play, and I've read that he's

577
00:25:44,800 --> 00:25:47,080
Speaker 1: you know, feeling good and who knows. But the one

578
00:25:47,240 --> 00:25:49,520
Speaker 1: concern that you have with the Eagles is Jason Peters,

579
00:25:49,520 --> 00:25:52,040
Speaker 1: who he's always hurt, but he's always playing at an

580
00:25:52,080 --> 00:25:54,840
Speaker 1: eleaite level. When he's in there, he's out. Andre Dillard

581
00:25:54,880 --> 00:25:56,400
Speaker 1: is in now. He is a first round draft picked

582
00:25:56,440 --> 00:25:58,439
Speaker 1: and he's probably going to be a good tackle, but

583
00:25:58,640 --> 00:26:02,720
Speaker 1: he got absolutely murdered. Now. He came into a horrible

584
00:26:02,760 --> 00:26:06,159
Speaker 1: situation going against Griffin and Hunter in Minnesota, but he

585
00:26:06,240 --> 00:26:08,760
Speaker 1: was getting run over almost every plan. I think he

586
00:26:08,800 --> 00:26:11,920
Speaker 1: got nine nine quarterback pressures. So he's gonna be going

587
00:26:11,960 --> 00:26:14,800
Speaker 1: up against you know, Robert Quinn. Not an easy matchup

588
00:26:14,800 --> 00:26:16,879
Speaker 1: for him. I think they'll be better, But all in all,

589
00:26:16,880 --> 00:26:18,040
Speaker 1: I agree with you. I think the Eagles are the

590
00:26:18,040 --> 00:26:19,480
Speaker 1: side of her. I've them teased.

591
00:26:19,440 --> 00:26:22,200
Speaker 2: Jason Garrett since he's been the head coach of the Cowboys.

592
00:26:22,480 --> 00:26:23,720
Speaker 1: They are a home favorite.

593
00:26:24,080 --> 00:26:26,200
Speaker 2: If you faded them, you would be thirty one and

594
00:26:26,320 --> 00:26:29,760
Speaker 2: nineteen against the spread, winning sixty two percent of your

595
00:26:29,800 --> 00:26:33,280
Speaker 2: bets with an ROI of twenty one percent, per bet Labs,

596
00:26:33,320 --> 00:26:35,160
Speaker 2: part of the Action Network. You can check that out

597
00:26:35,160 --> 00:26:37,520
Speaker 2: on betlabs sports dot com. But for all these games

598
00:26:37,520 --> 00:26:39,359
Speaker 2: and bet Labs, you know, trends pop up that I

599
00:26:39,400 --> 00:26:41,240
Speaker 2: have saved. For this one in particular, I have so

600
00:26:41,280 --> 00:26:43,520
Speaker 2: many saved that usually you see at least one on

601
00:26:43,600 --> 00:26:46,160
Speaker 2: both sides. For this one, it's it's just Eagles plus

602
00:26:46,200 --> 00:26:48,359
Speaker 2: three Eagles plus three Eagles money line, Like, it's just

603
00:26:48,440 --> 00:26:50,480
Speaker 2: all Eagles, And I think you really hit the nail

604
00:26:50,480 --> 00:26:52,520
Speaker 2: on the head with what the Eagles still do best

605
00:26:52,600 --> 00:26:54,800
Speaker 2: on defense is stop the run. So it's not like

606
00:26:54,840 --> 00:26:56,800
Speaker 2: a smash spot for Ezekiel Elliot where they can just

607
00:26:56,880 --> 00:26:58,600
Speaker 2: ride that to an easy victory.

608
00:26:58,640 --> 00:27:00,840
Speaker 1: So I think we're both in the there. Who you

609
00:27:00,880 --> 00:27:02,960
Speaker 1: got for your next pick? Yep? Yeah, And if Sehn

610
00:27:03,000 --> 00:27:04,520
Speaker 1: Jackson doesn't play, I would look at the under there.

611
00:27:04,560 --> 00:27:06,840
Speaker 1: The Eagles are more of like an efficient offense. Without

612
00:27:06,880 --> 00:27:09,560
Speaker 1: him Jackson plays, it opens up the whole Eagles offense.

613
00:27:09,840 --> 00:27:12,680
Speaker 1: For my second beck, I'm going with the Falcons. This

614
00:27:12,720 --> 00:27:15,000
Speaker 1: is a probably a matchup of you know, two teams

615
00:27:15,040 --> 00:27:17,800
Speaker 1: who have been the most disappointing in the NFL so far.

616
00:27:18,080 --> 00:27:19,800
Speaker 1: Now I'm talking about the Falcons in the Rams. The

617
00:27:19,800 --> 00:27:22,080
Speaker 1: Falcons are three point home dogs against the Rams. The

618
00:27:22,119 --> 00:27:24,879
Speaker 1: Falcons defense is a disaster, and I'm not here to

619
00:27:24,920 --> 00:27:28,240
Speaker 1: tell you otherwise. It's a disaster. And they might be

620
00:27:28,280 --> 00:27:31,679
Speaker 1: without true Font their corner, but the Rams are just

621
00:27:32,000 --> 00:27:34,400
Speaker 1: a mess and it all Look what I saw last

622
00:27:34,440 --> 00:27:37,520
Speaker 1: week confirmed it for me is yeah, you called it,

623
00:27:37,560 --> 00:27:41,040
Speaker 1: but look, oh, four and fourth down the play calling.

624
00:27:41,040 --> 00:27:42,840
Speaker 1: I don't know what's happened to mcday. If he's drunk

625
00:27:42,840 --> 00:27:45,560
Speaker 1: there or what if he was a drunk then he's drinking.

626
00:27:45,680 --> 00:27:48,720
Speaker 1: Now it's been absolutely horrible. I mean, look, when I'm

627
00:27:48,720 --> 00:27:50,200
Speaker 1: going to tell you some numbers, you're not gonna believe.

628
00:27:50,320 --> 00:27:52,719
Speaker 1: The Rams have given up ninety one quarterback curries.

629
00:27:52,960 --> 00:27:53,119
Speaker 2: You know.

630
00:27:53,240 --> 00:27:56,679
Speaker 1: The next amount is that the Chargers at sixty pressures

631
00:27:56,880 --> 00:28:00,720
Speaker 1: RAMS one hundred and fifteen Chargers eighty nine. Is the

632
00:28:00,760 --> 00:28:04,720
Speaker 1: next pass blocking efficiency Rams seventy six point two. That's

633
00:28:04,760 --> 00:28:08,280
Speaker 1: worse than the Dolphins who are at eighty. This offensive line,

634
00:28:08,640 --> 00:28:12,040
Speaker 1: it's an absolute disaster from all over. I mean, they're

635
00:28:12,040 --> 00:28:14,439
Speaker 1: gonna start David Edwards in his first career start at

636
00:28:14,520 --> 00:28:17,760
Speaker 1: left guard. Rookies at Whitworth is getting older. Golf has

637
00:28:17,840 --> 00:28:20,879
Speaker 1: no time from anywhere. Once you pressure Golf, he's just

638
00:28:21,200 --> 00:28:22,840
Speaker 1: off his game and they can't do anything. They can't

639
00:28:22,880 --> 00:28:25,360
Speaker 1: run the ball right now, Gurley's banged up. And then

640
00:28:25,359 --> 00:28:27,280
Speaker 1: on the other side, you know, so just I don't

641
00:28:27,280 --> 00:28:29,880
Speaker 1: trust the Rams offense. Even against them. They're gonna score points.

642
00:28:29,920 --> 00:28:31,760
Speaker 1: You o runners fifty four to fifty five, They're gonna

643
00:28:31,760 --> 00:28:34,120
Speaker 1: score points. But I just think they're gonna Golf's gonna

644
00:28:34,160 --> 00:28:36,760
Speaker 1: turn it over. They're gonna have more drives stall than

645
00:28:36,800 --> 00:28:39,920
Speaker 1: the Falcons, who their defense is a disaster, but their

646
00:28:39,920 --> 00:28:42,080
Speaker 1: offense is not. Their offense is not the problem. I

647
00:28:42,120 --> 00:28:44,400
Speaker 1: think Ryan is on pace to break the NFL season

648
00:28:44,400 --> 00:28:47,120
Speaker 1: single season passing record. That's what will happen when you

649
00:28:47,160 --> 00:28:50,000
Speaker 1: suck in. You have a great offense and you're going

650
00:28:50,120 --> 00:28:56,200
Speaker 1: up against a Rams secondary that's in shambles, absolute shambles. Johnson,

651
00:28:56,200 --> 00:28:58,120
Speaker 1: their safety is now out for the year. You know,

652
00:28:58,160 --> 00:29:01,280
Speaker 1: obviously they traded Peters to lead to the ir. They

653
00:29:01,320 --> 00:29:03,280
Speaker 1: brought in Ramsey. I don't think he's gonna play, and

654
00:29:03,320 --> 00:29:05,120
Speaker 1: if he does, I don't know how effective will be

655
00:29:05,120 --> 00:29:08,040
Speaker 1: out there. Against Julio Jones, and if he can't go,

656
00:29:08,320 --> 00:29:10,920
Speaker 1: you're gonna have Hill and then a guy making his

657
00:29:10,960 --> 00:29:14,160
Speaker 1: first start Thompson at corner. It's a mess against these

658
00:29:14,480 --> 00:29:18,360
Speaker 1: Falcons receivers. You know, your safety is out wrapped. The

659
00:29:18,440 --> 00:29:21,080
Speaker 1: rookie safety has been a mess. It's just the secondary

660
00:29:21,360 --> 00:29:24,160
Speaker 1: is not any shape to play this Falcons team. And

661
00:29:24,320 --> 00:29:26,440
Speaker 1: at the end of the day, I don't trust this

662
00:29:26,560 --> 00:29:30,400
Speaker 1: offensive line, especially on the road. So you know, in

663
00:29:30,440 --> 00:29:32,840
Speaker 1: a game that could just be end up being a

664
00:29:32,840 --> 00:29:36,440
Speaker 1: complete shootout, I think the Falcons, you know, their pressure

665
00:29:36,760 --> 00:29:39,600
Speaker 1: causes Golf to make a couple more mistakes than Ryan.

666
00:29:39,880 --> 00:29:43,640
Speaker 1: So I'll take the three points with the home dog

667
00:29:43,720 --> 00:29:46,760
Speaker 1: here in a matchup of two of the most disappointing

668
00:29:46,800 --> 00:29:49,040
Speaker 1: teams in the NFL so far this year. You know,

669
00:29:49,160 --> 00:29:50,120
Speaker 1: talk about it last week.

670
00:29:50,120 --> 00:29:52,400
Speaker 2: I think the Rams have a lot bigger issues than people,

671
00:29:53,040 --> 00:29:54,840
Speaker 2: you know thought, and this is going to probably be

672
00:29:54,880 --> 00:29:57,959
Speaker 2: a shootout. The Falcons are probably the right play except

673
00:29:57,960 --> 00:30:00,880
Speaker 2: for one reason, which is just that dan Quinn. I mean,

674
00:30:00,880 --> 00:30:04,040
Speaker 2: this is essentially the dan Quinn keep his job game.

675
00:30:04,200 --> 00:30:05,400
Speaker 2: If they could come in there and he can be

676
00:30:05,480 --> 00:30:08,120
Speaker 2: Sean McVay at home in front of the crowd. I

677
00:30:08,120 --> 00:30:10,520
Speaker 2: think Arthur Blank is like, Okay, you know, I'm gonna

678
00:30:10,600 --> 00:30:12,720
Speaker 2: let this guy rot. But you know, the chemistry on

679
00:30:12,720 --> 00:30:15,760
Speaker 2: the sidelines is terrible. It's kind of a similar situation

680
00:30:15,800 --> 00:30:17,960
Speaker 2: to what was going down in Washington with Jake Gruden

681
00:30:18,160 --> 00:30:21,080
Speaker 2: near the end. So the last three times Atlanta has

682
00:30:21,120 --> 00:30:24,200
Speaker 2: been an underdog by three or more points, they are

683
00:30:24,280 --> 00:30:25,440
Speaker 2: zero and seven against the spread.

684
00:30:25,480 --> 00:30:27,000
Speaker 1: Now, obviously that's a small sample.

685
00:30:27,200 --> 00:30:29,320
Speaker 2: It could easily correct, but just something to keep in

686
00:30:29,360 --> 00:30:31,920
Speaker 2: mind when you think about Dan Quinn and people you

687
00:30:31,920 --> 00:30:33,640
Speaker 2: know talk about, you know, should he get fired?

688
00:30:33,680 --> 00:30:34,400
Speaker 1: Is it really his fault?

689
00:30:34,760 --> 00:30:36,920
Speaker 2: When you see a team perform that bad, we against

690
00:30:37,000 --> 00:30:40,040
Speaker 2: expectations against the spread. Again, you know when models say hey,

691
00:30:40,040 --> 00:30:43,240
Speaker 2: this is how they should perform and they continuously undershoot,

692
00:30:43,240 --> 00:30:45,440
Speaker 2: that usually has something to do with the coach. So

693
00:30:45,960 --> 00:30:48,360
Speaker 2: that's the only thing probably keeping me off the Falcons

694
00:30:48,400 --> 00:30:50,480
Speaker 2: because I do agree, I think they should be able

695
00:30:50,520 --> 00:30:51,080
Speaker 2: to win this game.

696
00:30:51,120 --> 00:30:53,840
Speaker 1: Given the current state of the Rams, you gotta feel

697
00:30:53,840 --> 00:30:57,240
Speaker 1: bad for Jalen Ramsey. He finally gets traded out of

698
00:30:57,320 --> 00:30:59,600
Speaker 1: Jacksonville and he ends up on a team where the

699
00:30:59,600 --> 00:31:02,920
Speaker 1: best quarterback is Blake Bortles. Oh nah, No, I'm not

700
00:31:02,960 --> 00:31:07,120
Speaker 1: going there. I see this is a jock. God forbid.

701
00:31:07,160 --> 00:31:11,200
Speaker 1: I'd never root for an injury Bortles show. What a nightmare.

702
00:31:11,360 --> 00:31:13,959
Speaker 2: Speaking of teams that I think both gonna score a lot.

703
00:31:14,280 --> 00:31:17,400
Speaker 2: I don't think that this game particularly lends itself to

704
00:31:17,480 --> 00:31:18,920
Speaker 2: a lot of high scoring.

705
00:31:19,000 --> 00:31:20,240
Speaker 1: And the spread is so big.

706
00:31:20,280 --> 00:31:24,400
Speaker 2: Miami plus seventeen against Buffalo, I get it, Miami's time

707
00:31:24,480 --> 00:31:26,280
Speaker 2: to the Yeah, I.

708
00:31:26,440 --> 00:31:28,480
Speaker 1: Like, listen to me. I thought about this.

709
00:31:28,760 --> 00:31:30,600
Speaker 2: I think it makes a lot of sense to play

710
00:31:30,640 --> 00:31:33,800
Speaker 2: Miami here because the total in the game is thirty nine,

711
00:31:33,840 --> 00:31:36,080
Speaker 2: hovering around thirty nine, some spots thirty nine and five

712
00:31:36,160 --> 00:31:36,520
Speaker 2: whatever not.

713
00:31:36,840 --> 00:31:37,880
Speaker 1: The spread is seventeen.

714
00:31:37,920 --> 00:31:40,120
Speaker 2: This is not like when the Dolphins are plus seventeen

715
00:31:40,160 --> 00:31:43,200
Speaker 2: against New England, or even the Chargers, like a team

716
00:31:43,200 --> 00:31:45,800
Speaker 2: that we know, or the Cowboys that can score a

717
00:31:45,840 --> 00:31:48,400
Speaker 2: ton of points. Like teams shouldn't really be favored by

718
00:31:48,440 --> 00:31:51,000
Speaker 2: that much anyway. But now we're talking about.

719
00:31:50,760 --> 00:31:53,920
Speaker 1: The Buffalo Bills, who tend to play in low scoring games.

720
00:31:54,000 --> 00:31:56,280
Speaker 2: As we've talked about on the show before. They don't

721
00:31:56,280 --> 00:31:57,480
Speaker 2: do anything over the top.

722
00:31:57,800 --> 00:31:59,719
Speaker 1: So they're been all games gone under so far, by

723
00:31:59,720 --> 00:32:00,160
Speaker 1: the way.

724
00:32:00,120 --> 00:32:02,040
Speaker 2: Every Bills game's gone under it's one of the best

725
00:32:02,040 --> 00:32:04,360
Speaker 2: bets you can usually make betting on the under. When

726
00:32:04,400 --> 00:32:06,800
Speaker 2: the Bills are playing and Josh Allen is starting. It's

727
00:32:06,840 --> 00:32:09,120
Speaker 2: twelve and four now, including five and oh this season,

728
00:32:09,120 --> 00:32:12,400
Speaker 2: as mentioned, and so you kind of combine.

729
00:32:12,080 --> 00:32:13,120
Speaker 1: Those two situations.

730
00:32:13,120 --> 00:32:15,440
Speaker 2: You look at how the game against the Redskins played out,

731
00:32:15,440 --> 00:32:18,760
Speaker 2: where you know, Miami kind of stayed close and it

732
00:32:18,760 --> 00:32:20,720
Speaker 2: was a lower scoring game that I think some people thought.

733
00:32:21,040 --> 00:32:23,720
Speaker 2: You also have the veteran Ryan Fitzpatrick, who I think

734
00:32:23,840 --> 00:32:24,920
Speaker 2: can still kind of run.

735
00:32:25,200 --> 00:32:27,040
Speaker 1: The show a little bit more manage.

736
00:32:27,400 --> 00:32:30,400
Speaker 2: Like professionally than Rosen at this point, who I just

737
00:32:30,440 --> 00:32:30,920
Speaker 2: don't think.

738
00:32:31,200 --> 00:32:32,720
Speaker 1: I think he was a wasted draft pick. I don't

739
00:32:32,760 --> 00:32:33,400
Speaker 1: think he has it.

740
00:32:33,520 --> 00:32:34,680
Speaker 2: I don't think he's ever going to be a good

741
00:32:34,760 --> 00:32:37,720
Speaker 2: quarterback in this league. Look at the Bills when they

742
00:32:37,760 --> 00:32:40,920
Speaker 2: played some similarly bad teams. They play the Bengals, they

743
00:32:40,960 --> 00:32:43,320
Speaker 2: don't cover, they win twenty one to seventeen. They play

744
00:32:43,400 --> 00:32:45,440
Speaker 2: the Titans, I believe they were the underdog, but they cover.

745
00:32:45,520 --> 00:32:47,360
Speaker 2: But to get to fourteen to seven game. You know,

746
00:32:47,880 --> 00:32:51,160
Speaker 2: they can play teams that are bad on offense and

747
00:32:51,200 --> 00:32:52,920
Speaker 2: it doesn't mean they're going to blow them out. They're

748
00:32:52,960 --> 00:32:55,760
Speaker 2: also liable to give one back, you know, as good

749
00:32:55,760 --> 00:32:58,520
Speaker 2: as as improved as Josh Allen I think has started

750
00:32:59,000 --> 00:33:01,840
Speaker 2: to be. The bottom line is he played some bad defenses.

751
00:33:01,880 --> 00:33:04,040
Speaker 2: He played the Giants, he played the Jets, played the Bengals.

752
00:33:04,440 --> 00:33:06,640
Speaker 2: Still liable to give one up and turn them all

753
00:33:06,680 --> 00:33:08,840
Speaker 2: over against any defense. It doesn't really matter about the

754
00:33:08,880 --> 00:33:12,000
Speaker 2: defensive quality necessarily, So just too many factors.

755
00:33:12,040 --> 00:33:12,360
Speaker 1: I think.

756
00:33:12,760 --> 00:33:15,080
Speaker 2: Kind of pointing in the direction of the Dolphins to

757
00:33:15,120 --> 00:33:18,320
Speaker 2: net take this at plus seventeen. You know, if it goes,

758
00:33:18,400 --> 00:33:20,720
Speaker 2: if it's down to sixteen to five, I probably way off.

759
00:33:20,720 --> 00:33:25,560
Speaker 2: But seventeen give me the Dolphins that anything. Seventeen are better.

760
00:33:25,840 --> 00:33:27,520
Speaker 1: The Dolphins are terrible. I can't take them. If you

761
00:33:27,560 --> 00:33:30,160
Speaker 1: give me twenty one, I would take them. Here with Fitzpatrick, yes,

762
00:33:30,240 --> 00:33:31,800
Speaker 1: I agree, he's going to get rid of the ball.

763
00:33:31,840 --> 00:33:34,000
Speaker 1: He's going to be more decisive, which he's showed in

764
00:33:34,040 --> 00:33:36,840
Speaker 1: the second half against the Redskins. But he's also a gunslinger,

765
00:33:37,200 --> 00:33:39,760
Speaker 1: so which can work for or against you. If he

766
00:33:39,800 --> 00:33:41,880
Speaker 1: takes care of the ball, I could see it. I

767
00:33:41,920 --> 00:33:44,880
Speaker 1: don't totally hate your Dolphins pick this week as I

768
00:33:44,920 --> 00:33:48,400
Speaker 1: did in weeks past. All Right, for my last pick,

769
00:33:48,520 --> 00:33:50,600
Speaker 1: the theme of the weekend for me in the NFL

770
00:33:50,800 --> 00:33:54,080
Speaker 1: is fading these there's a couple horrifying offensive lines on

771
00:33:54,120 --> 00:33:57,200
Speaker 1: the road. Something I've always loved to do in the NFL.

772
00:33:57,280 --> 00:33:59,360
Speaker 1: Fade a terrible offensive line on the road, and that's

773
00:33:59,360 --> 00:34:00,840
Speaker 1: what we have with the t Argers. I have him

774
00:34:00,920 --> 00:34:03,880
Speaker 1: rated right on par with the Dolphins, who I thought

775
00:34:03,880 --> 00:34:06,640
Speaker 1: were going to be historically bad and still may be.

776
00:34:07,000 --> 00:34:09,879
Speaker 1: But the Chargers offensive line can't even describe how bad

777
00:34:09,880 --> 00:34:12,880
Speaker 1: it is. I mean, granted, Russell Okun, their star left tackle,

778
00:34:13,200 --> 00:34:17,040
Speaker 1: is out, then they lost Pouncy, but their tackles oh Man,

779
00:34:17,120 --> 00:34:20,560
Speaker 1: Trent Scott, and Sam Tevy are just beyond bad. I

780
00:34:20,560 --> 00:34:22,600
Speaker 1: mean this, So this offensive line is really bad. Now.

781
00:34:22,600 --> 00:34:25,000
Speaker 1: On the flip side, the Tennessee offensive line has been

782
00:34:25,040 --> 00:34:27,439
Speaker 1: bad too. They're on pace to break the NFL record

783
00:34:27,480 --> 00:34:29,600
Speaker 1: for saxon in the year, but their offensive line actually

784
00:34:29,760 --> 00:34:32,640
Speaker 1: has some talent compared to the Chargers. And I'm on

785
00:34:32,680 --> 00:34:35,320
Speaker 1: the under here too. The Titans offense is a mess.

786
00:34:35,400 --> 00:34:38,400
Speaker 1: Now Mariota wasn't helping things. Tannell has a little stronger

787
00:34:38,520 --> 00:34:40,359
Speaker 1: arm to throw at the hashes and he will at

788
00:34:40,400 --> 00:34:42,480
Speaker 1: least get rid of the ball quicker he's not great.

789
00:34:42,480 --> 00:34:44,200
Speaker 1: He's it should be a backup, but he's I think

790
00:34:44,200 --> 00:34:46,440
Speaker 1: he's going to be a little better than Mariota. But

791
00:34:46,520 --> 00:34:49,759
Speaker 1: what this comes down to defense, and right now, the

792
00:34:49,840 --> 00:34:54,040
Speaker 1: Chargers defense is a it's a disaster, I mean, and

793
00:34:54,080 --> 00:34:56,920
Speaker 1: a lot of it is because of injuries. One of

794
00:34:56,960 --> 00:34:59,280
Speaker 1: the worst players in football right now is Roger Teamer.

795
00:34:59,480 --> 00:35:02,400
Speaker 1: He's allowed a perfect passer rating on sixteen targets for

796
00:35:02,480 --> 00:35:04,799
Speaker 1: three touchdowns. I mean, it gets no worse than that.

797
00:35:04,920 --> 00:35:07,080
Speaker 1: And they don't tackle. The Titans are one of the

798
00:35:07,080 --> 00:35:10,520
Speaker 1: best tackling teams in the NFL. The Charters are dead last.

799
00:35:10,600 --> 00:35:12,440
Speaker 1: If you look at a lot of the tackling metrics,

800
00:35:12,640 --> 00:35:15,000
Speaker 1: like they're in the thirties. There's no other teams in

801
00:35:15,000 --> 00:35:17,960
Speaker 1: the forties. This defense isn't doing anything. And the Titans

802
00:35:17,960 --> 00:35:19,680
Speaker 1: at least have a really good defense. They haven't let

803
00:35:19,719 --> 00:35:22,240
Speaker 1: up twenty points once this year, their top five points

804
00:35:22,280 --> 00:35:25,839
Speaker 1: per game. They're going to probably double Allen. They can

805
00:35:25,920 --> 00:35:29,520
Speaker 1: stuff the run and their defensive line, they're gonna get

806
00:35:29,520 --> 00:35:31,560
Speaker 1: pressure on Rivers. And also keep in mind for the

807
00:35:31,640 --> 00:35:35,239
Speaker 1: under charters take forever they hike the ball one on

808
00:35:35,320 --> 00:35:37,680
Speaker 1: the game clock. Rivers every single play They're a snail

809
00:35:37,680 --> 00:35:39,840
Speaker 1: slows team NFL. That's not going to help when you

810
00:35:39,880 --> 00:35:42,960
Speaker 1: have a terrible offensive line going against a good defensive

811
00:35:42,960 --> 00:35:45,040
Speaker 1: line and a defense that can get pressure top ten

812
00:35:45,239 --> 00:35:48,960
Speaker 1: in adjusted sack rate. So give me the Titans at

813
00:35:49,000 --> 00:35:51,600
Speaker 1: home based on the pure fact that both these offenses

814
00:35:51,640 --> 00:35:53,680
Speaker 1: are mess right now because of their offensive lines, but

815
00:35:53,719 --> 00:35:55,240
Speaker 1: the Titans are the only one with the good defense

816
00:35:55,280 --> 00:35:57,319
Speaker 1: now the charters are really bad.

817
00:35:57,440 --> 00:35:59,960
Speaker 2: I'm obviously going I'm going with the Chargers plus two here.

818
00:36:00,120 --> 00:36:02,120
Speaker 2: I thought before the Monday night game that either they

819
00:36:02,120 --> 00:36:04,160
Speaker 2: were gonna take care of business against Pittsburgh in that

820
00:36:04,239 --> 00:36:06,759
Speaker 2: line was going to kind of balloon to Chargers minus three,

821
00:36:07,400 --> 00:36:08,759
Speaker 2: or it was gonna go the other way. So I

822
00:36:08,800 --> 00:36:11,320
Speaker 2: kind of hedged a little bit by putting a little

823
00:36:11,360 --> 00:36:13,719
Speaker 2: down on Chargers at a pick, which obviously didn't work out.

824
00:36:13,760 --> 00:36:16,680
Speaker 2: But you know, now getting that back at plus two,

825
00:36:16,960 --> 00:36:19,960
Speaker 2: I'm happy to do it because, listen, I think that

826
00:36:21,440 --> 00:36:24,040
Speaker 2: it's valid that I expected the Chargers to have to

827
00:36:24,280 --> 00:36:27,160
Speaker 2: have trouble last week without their center. I think that

828
00:36:27,200 --> 00:36:30,839
Speaker 2: Pittsburgh front was really good, a really tough matchup for them.

829
00:36:30,840 --> 00:36:32,840
Speaker 2: They have think three guys on that defensive line that

830
00:36:32,920 --> 00:36:34,400
Speaker 2: ranked in the top eight and Pro Football Focus in

831
00:36:34,480 --> 00:36:37,800
Speaker 2: terms of pass rush. But the Titans, they're a solid defense.

832
00:36:38,080 --> 00:36:40,160
Speaker 2: But at the end of the day, offense is gonna

833
00:36:40,200 --> 00:36:42,320
Speaker 2: factor in more than defense. So like if there's a

834
00:36:42,400 --> 00:36:45,040
Speaker 2: good offense going against a good defensive vice versa, the

835
00:36:45,080 --> 00:36:48,360
Speaker 2: offense is still gonna wait more heavily. So in this situation,

836
00:36:48,640 --> 00:36:50,279
Speaker 2: even with all the problems that they're gonna have with

837
00:36:50,320 --> 00:36:52,279
Speaker 2: the O line, Yes, I think it's absolutely better than

838
00:36:52,320 --> 00:36:54,759
Speaker 2: the Titans. And the reason being the Titans are number

839
00:36:54,800 --> 00:36:57,360
Speaker 2: thirty one in early down pass success rate. They're also

840
00:36:57,400 --> 00:37:01,080
Speaker 2: bottom ten in third down conversion rate. Was with Mariota, granted,

841
00:37:01,200 --> 00:37:03,919
Speaker 2: but Ryan Tannehill. People don't realize he came in a game.

842
00:37:04,120 --> 00:37:06,520
Speaker 2: His QBR was actually lower than Mariota's. They were both

843
00:37:06,560 --> 00:37:08,600
Speaker 2: single digit. Tannahill was like two point nine.

844
00:37:08,760 --> 00:37:11,279
Speaker 1: I'm not arguing for the Tennessee offense. I'm saying both

845
00:37:11,320 --> 00:37:13,799
Speaker 1: offenses are a mess right now. I'm saying, like, look

846
00:37:13,800 --> 00:37:16,479
Speaker 1: a reason I'm taking the Titans defense end at home

847
00:37:16,719 --> 00:37:17,160
Speaker 1: at two.

848
00:37:17,520 --> 00:37:20,359
Speaker 2: It's tougher because you're now you're betting on a team

849
00:37:20,400 --> 00:37:22,120
Speaker 2: with the worst quarterback that's just make it in the

850
00:37:22,160 --> 00:37:25,000
Speaker 2: first game with a new quarterback and another team that

851
00:37:25,360 --> 00:37:28,440
Speaker 2: is the better team overall. I still would would argue

852
00:37:28,840 --> 00:37:31,400
Speaker 2: that's kind of desperate for a win now because they've lost.

853
00:37:31,160 --> 00:37:31,840
Speaker 1: A couple straight.

854
00:37:32,160 --> 00:37:34,040
Speaker 2: I think with Hunter Henry back, the Chargers can play

855
00:37:34,080 --> 00:37:36,080
Speaker 2: more to tight end and they can kind of block

856
00:37:36,160 --> 00:37:37,960
Speaker 2: up when they need to and then still be able

857
00:37:38,000 --> 00:37:40,760
Speaker 2: to pass the ball to Alan Williams, Aplora Gordon, whoever.

858
00:37:40,920 --> 00:37:41,360
Speaker 1: I just think the.

859
00:37:41,400 --> 00:37:44,280
Speaker 2: Chargers have enough to win this game, especially as an underdog,

860
00:37:44,560 --> 00:37:46,319
Speaker 2: So you know, I like it here.

861
00:37:46,600 --> 00:37:48,680
Speaker 1: I mean there's two guys in their offense, so just

862
00:37:48,760 --> 00:37:50,880
Speaker 1: I don't know why they're giving carries to Melopyn Gordon

863
00:37:50,960 --> 00:37:52,600
Speaker 1: right now. He's still trying to get up to speed.

864
00:37:52,719 --> 00:37:56,279
Speaker 1: But him and Travis Benjamin, I mean, could you look

865
00:37:56,440 --> 00:38:00,279
Speaker 1: worse on offense? Are more disinterested in drop every ball

866
00:38:00,320 --> 00:38:01,160
Speaker 1: that comes in the air.

867
00:38:01,239 --> 00:38:03,040
Speaker 2: And it's in the air and Travis Benjamin is running

868
00:38:03,080 --> 00:38:05,680
Speaker 2: under it, You're just thinking about how is he going

869
00:38:05,760 --> 00:38:07,800
Speaker 2: to not pull in the catch? Was it? Chris Collinsworth

870
00:38:07,800 --> 00:38:09,839
Speaker 2: called him out on it. We'll see what happens here.

871
00:38:10,000 --> 00:38:12,640
Speaker 2: I'm up twenty eighteen, but you're you're due for some

872
00:38:12,640 --> 00:38:15,640
Speaker 2: swift regression. So I never feel good about betting on

873
00:38:15,760 --> 00:38:17,960
Speaker 2: the Chargers. And that's going to wrap it up for

874
00:38:18,160 --> 00:38:22,000
Speaker 2: our Sunday six pack this week. And before we move

875
00:38:22,040 --> 00:38:24,560
Speaker 2: on to our favorite total, let's hear from Action Network

876
00:38:24,600 --> 00:38:26,080
Speaker 2: animal expert Matthew Friedman.

877
00:38:26,760 --> 00:38:28,240
Speaker 1: Thanks for the message, Matthew.

878
00:38:28,440 --> 00:38:31,359
Speaker 2: Now let's jump to our favorite over under of the week,

879
00:38:31,640 --> 00:38:34,680
Speaker 2: and I'm going under Minnesota Detroit forty five to five.

880
00:38:34,760 --> 00:38:36,839
Speaker 2: I think you want that number under the forty five

881
00:38:36,880 --> 00:38:39,920
Speaker 2: to five. Obviously, I don't think I'll get it much lower.

882
00:38:39,960 --> 00:38:43,400
Speaker 2: But listen, Minnesota, they's put up a lot of points

883
00:38:43,440 --> 00:38:46,600
Speaker 2: up on a Philadelphia defense that was essentially.

884
00:38:46,280 --> 00:38:48,280
Speaker 1: Right for exploitation by wide receivers.

885
00:38:48,320 --> 00:38:50,919
Speaker 2: This is that's what you can get on Philadelphia, which

886
00:38:50,920 --> 00:38:53,160
Speaker 2: is another reason I like them with Dallas just being

887
00:38:53,160 --> 00:38:55,080
Speaker 2: banged up on the wide receiver corp and a tackle

888
00:38:55,280 --> 00:38:58,359
Speaker 2: might not have enough time. But Minnesota, they're gonna they

889
00:38:58,360 --> 00:39:01,120
Speaker 2: go on the road and they're going to shorten the game.

890
00:39:01,120 --> 00:39:03,520
Speaker 2: They're going to get back to running the football. Detroit's

891
00:39:03,520 --> 00:39:06,320
Speaker 2: been maybe a lot better, I would say, actually on defense,

892
00:39:06,360 --> 00:39:09,600
Speaker 2: and I think the average you know, everyday public might

893
00:39:09,800 --> 00:39:12,560
Speaker 2: assume you know, they are number four in early down

894
00:39:13,000 --> 00:39:16,000
Speaker 2: pass success rate on defense. The number fourteen against the run.

895
00:39:16,080 --> 00:39:18,600
Speaker 2: So Detroit has been above average defense. Remember they played

896
00:39:18,600 --> 00:39:21,480
Speaker 2: Aaron Rodgers, they played Mahomes in Kansas City, they played

897
00:39:21,480 --> 00:39:23,600
Speaker 2: some where. You look at those numbers and you say, oh, okay,

898
00:39:23,680 --> 00:39:24,839
Speaker 2: this defense isn't half bad.

899
00:39:25,160 --> 00:39:27,000
Speaker 1: And in Minnesota always.

900
00:39:26,680 --> 00:39:29,439
Speaker 2: Going to play solid defense. This has been a trend

901
00:39:29,480 --> 00:39:32,520
Speaker 2: for Minnesota. You know, since Mike Zimmer took over as

902
00:39:32,520 --> 00:39:35,120
Speaker 2: the head coach. The under is hitting at above a.

903
00:39:35,040 --> 00:39:36,480
Speaker 1: Sixty percent clip for them.

904
00:39:36,520 --> 00:39:38,560
Speaker 2: So this is a spot where I think people saw

905
00:39:38,680 --> 00:39:41,000
Speaker 2: the explosion by Minnesota, like, oh, they get back to passing.

906
00:39:41,000 --> 00:39:42,759
Speaker 2: Now they face the Lions, so everyone thinks the Lions

907
00:39:42,800 --> 00:39:44,920
Speaker 2: have a bad defense. I think both of these defenses

908
00:39:44,920 --> 00:39:46,799
Speaker 2: are above average and I think it'll be a well

909
00:39:46,800 --> 00:39:47,279
Speaker 2: scoring game.

910
00:39:47,400 --> 00:39:49,280
Speaker 1: Yeah. The one thing that keep concerns about the lines

911
00:39:49,400 --> 00:39:51,719
Speaker 1: their defensive line, which I love and I've been town.

912
00:39:51,719 --> 00:39:53,040
Speaker 1: The lines all ear the should be five to no.

913
00:39:53,200 --> 00:39:55,200
Speaker 1: But if they have a bunch of injuries up front,

914
00:39:55,400 --> 00:39:57,080
Speaker 1: that I want to keep my eye out on Hand

915
00:39:57,200 --> 00:40:00,359
Speaker 1: Robinson and Mike Daniels. But I like their defense. They

916
00:40:00,600 --> 00:40:03,080
Speaker 1: have great cover corners, they can cover on the outside,

917
00:40:03,120 --> 00:40:05,200
Speaker 1: and their offense might struggler. They can't run the ball.

918
00:40:05,560 --> 00:40:07,239
Speaker 1: They said against the Chiefs they ran up what thirty

919
00:40:07,280 --> 00:40:09,319
Speaker 1: six times or one to ninety. If you remove that,

920
00:40:09,320 --> 00:40:12,760
Speaker 1: they're averaging three point three yards per carry, that's bottom

921
00:40:13,200 --> 00:40:15,360
Speaker 1: five in the NFL. And you can't run against the Vikings.

922
00:40:15,480 --> 00:40:17,640
Speaker 1: They're only allowing three point eight top ten. And then

923
00:40:17,680 --> 00:40:20,040
Speaker 1: if you get in passing situations against the Vikings, then

924
00:40:20,080 --> 00:40:22,439
Speaker 1: you're going to go up against Griffin and Hunter, who

925
00:40:22,440 --> 00:40:24,880
Speaker 1: are in the top five among all eyed rushers, both

926
00:40:24,920 --> 00:40:27,320
Speaker 1: of them in hurries and pressures. And then the Lions

927
00:40:27,360 --> 00:40:30,600
Speaker 1: weak point on their offenses their tackles and pass protection.

928
00:40:30,719 --> 00:40:33,200
Speaker 1: So I agree it could be a long day for

929
00:40:33,239 --> 00:40:35,520
Speaker 1: the Lions offense. Oh, the Stafford will make some plays,

930
00:40:35,520 --> 00:40:37,040
Speaker 1: but I would like I like the under there too.

931
00:40:37,680 --> 00:40:40,040
Speaker 1: What do you think about the Saints The under I'm

932
00:40:40,080 --> 00:40:42,600
Speaker 1: going with. I already mentioned the Titans Chargers under, but

933
00:40:42,680 --> 00:40:45,720
Speaker 1: for this, I'm gonna throw up Bears Saints. This should

934
00:40:45,719 --> 00:40:49,600
Speaker 1: be ugly. I think Trubisky's coming back Teddy checkdown was

935
00:40:49,640 --> 00:40:52,960
Speaker 1: back last week against Jacksonville. Kamara looks like he's going

936
00:40:53,040 --> 00:40:54,520
Speaker 1: to be out. I don't know that for sure, but

937
00:40:54,560 --> 00:40:58,040
Speaker 1: the Saint signs Zenter. He's definitely not healthy. Last weekend.

938
00:40:58,280 --> 00:41:01,600
Speaker 1: He did not look healthy. The Bears defense should respond

939
00:41:01,680 --> 00:41:04,799
Speaker 1: off a bye after getting embarrassed against the Raiders. Not

940
00:41:04,840 --> 00:41:07,600
Speaker 1: having Hicks does hurt some, but I don't think this Saints'

941
00:41:07,600 --> 00:41:09,680
Speaker 1: office can hurt the Bears. You're going to get an

942
00:41:09,680 --> 00:41:13,000
Speaker 1: inspired effort from the Bears. Saints defense playing really well,

943
00:41:13,280 --> 00:41:15,960
Speaker 1: special teams playing really well. This is an ugly one

944
00:41:16,080 --> 00:41:20,719
Speaker 1: I'm going under in Soldier Field. Yeah, no argument there.

945
00:41:20,760 --> 00:41:24,000
Speaker 2: So let's just go right into our weekly teaser segment.

946
00:41:24,360 --> 00:41:28,880
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, six point teasers. This is pretty easy for me.

947
00:41:28,920 --> 00:41:32,680
Speaker 1: I already mentioned I teased the Eagles. I don't mind

948
00:41:32,719 --> 00:41:34,120
Speaker 1: your pick at all, and I would lean that way.

949
00:41:34,120 --> 00:41:35,359
Speaker 1: And plus two and a half plus three, I'd tease

950
00:41:35,400 --> 00:41:38,919
Speaker 1: them up past three, four, six, seven two plus nine.

951
00:41:38,960 --> 00:41:42,600
Speaker 1: I tease them with the Broncos tomorrow night. I'd also,

952
00:41:43,160 --> 00:41:45,080
Speaker 1: if you don't get this teaser in or listening on

953
00:41:45,080 --> 00:41:47,799
Speaker 1: Friday Saturday, tease the Eagles with the Ravens. I think

954
00:41:47,840 --> 00:41:49,640
Speaker 1: that also works as well. How about you? Where you going?

955
00:41:49,760 --> 00:41:52,879
Speaker 2: Eagles are also in my teaser as well, teasing them

956
00:41:52,920 --> 00:41:55,600
Speaker 2: up to plus nine and combining them with the Chargers,

957
00:41:55,640 --> 00:41:57,600
Speaker 2: and haven't had much luck with them, but again I

958
00:41:57,680 --> 00:41:59,879
Speaker 2: just really think that the Chargers are the better team here,

959
00:42:00,080 --> 00:42:02,160
Speaker 2: that they honestly probably outright win the game.

960
00:42:02,239 --> 00:42:04,319
Speaker 1: So I like getting them at plus eight. I think

961
00:42:04,440 --> 00:42:06,040
Speaker 1: the same. It's a low scoring game too.

962
00:42:06,160 --> 00:42:08,319
Speaker 2: Yeah, and I will say this for everyone, you know,

963
00:42:08,440 --> 00:42:10,040
Speaker 2: I'm taking it at plus two for the purposes of

964
00:42:10,040 --> 00:42:12,319
Speaker 2: when we're recording, but other books are still at two.

965
00:42:12,400 --> 00:42:14,080
Speaker 2: But if you can get that two and a half,

966
00:42:14,200 --> 00:42:16,759
Speaker 2: I think that's that's also key because I could see,

967
00:42:16,760 --> 00:42:19,520
Speaker 2: you know, the Chargers having another Chargers game, and but

968
00:42:20,040 --> 00:42:21,920
Speaker 2: I can't see them not getting in position to at

969
00:42:22,000 --> 00:42:24,680
Speaker 2: least tie with a two point conversion wait in the game,

970
00:42:24,760 --> 00:42:27,280
Speaker 2: given how desperate I think they'll be, you know, coming

971
00:42:27,280 --> 00:42:30,399
Speaker 2: off underperforming into straight So if you can hold off

972
00:42:30,400 --> 00:42:31,960
Speaker 2: for that two and a half, I think that would

973
00:42:32,000 --> 00:42:34,960
Speaker 2: be a better player. And now let's get into our

974
00:42:35,080 --> 00:42:39,640
Speaker 2: underdog money line parlay.

975
00:42:39,600 --> 00:42:44,560
Speaker 1: Turning good weekends into great weekends. It's time for the

976
00:42:44,719 --> 00:42:46,000
Speaker 1: money line parlay.

977
00:42:47,360 --> 00:42:50,840
Speaker 2: All right, So our streak has been ended, We got it.

978
00:42:50,880 --> 00:42:53,640
Speaker 2: We got to start a new one. The brown oh Browns.

979
00:42:53,760 --> 00:42:54,879
Speaker 2: But who you got this week?

980
00:42:54,920 --> 00:42:56,759
Speaker 1: Stuck? Don't need to go into it more alb or

981
00:42:56,840 --> 00:42:58,680
Speaker 1: right up on it on our app and website, But

982
00:42:58,920 --> 00:43:01,320
Speaker 1: I'm going with the Ravens. I think they find a

983
00:43:01,360 --> 00:43:02,960
Speaker 1: way to win before the buye.

984
00:43:02,719 --> 00:43:05,399
Speaker 2: Yeah, and I'm going back to the Philadelphia Eagles, another

985
00:43:05,440 --> 00:43:08,160
Speaker 2: team to where I think that they are. You put

986
00:43:08,160 --> 00:43:10,160
Speaker 2: them on a neutral field, They're they're the better team,

987
00:43:10,239 --> 00:43:12,760
Speaker 2: So I think they have a good shot at winning

988
00:43:12,760 --> 00:43:16,840
Speaker 2: this football game in Dallas given the injuries. So Baltimore

989
00:43:16,920 --> 00:43:20,320
Speaker 2: is plus one fifty and the Eagles are plus one thirty.

990
00:43:20,400 --> 00:43:23,320
Speaker 2: So if you want to kind of calculate your moneyline

991
00:43:23,320 --> 00:43:25,640
Speaker 2: Parlai beats, be sure to check out actionnetwork dot com

992
00:43:25,680 --> 00:43:28,960
Speaker 2: slash betting calculators and hopefully we can get back on

993
00:43:29,000 --> 00:43:31,719
Speaker 2: the right track. Now, let's quickly cover the best of

994
00:43:31,760 --> 00:43:34,120
Speaker 2: the rest, all of the games that did not make

995
00:43:34,160 --> 00:43:36,719
Speaker 2: it into any other segment on the show. And we'll

996
00:43:36,719 --> 00:43:39,319
Speaker 2: start the best of the rest with Arizona Cardinals going

997
00:43:39,400 --> 00:43:42,280
Speaker 2: to New York, really New Jersey to face the Giants.

998
00:43:42,520 --> 00:43:45,520
Speaker 2: Giants favored by three sixty three percent of the tickets,

999
00:43:45,520 --> 00:43:47,960
Speaker 2: seventy five percent of the money on the Giants total

1000
00:43:48,000 --> 00:43:50,520
Speaker 2: at fifty and a half, with ninety seven percent of

1001
00:43:50,560 --> 00:43:51,359
Speaker 2: the money on the over.

1002
00:43:52,320 --> 00:43:54,279
Speaker 1: Yeah, I like, I actually like the over. I played

1003
00:43:54,280 --> 00:43:57,200
Speaker 1: the over end of the Giants here. Let's hear it

1004
00:43:57,400 --> 00:44:06,400
Speaker 1: for Danny Dimes the King. And as soon as I

1005
00:44:06,440 --> 00:44:08,960
Speaker 1: found out that Ingram and Barkley were good to go,

1006
00:44:09,440 --> 00:44:12,200
Speaker 1: the Cardinals defense is a mess and their offense is

1007
00:44:12,200 --> 00:44:13,640
Speaker 1: going to score. The Giant secretary is a mess, and

1008
00:44:13,680 --> 00:44:15,799
Speaker 1: the Cardinals go fast. The Giants played pretty fast too,

1009
00:44:16,120 --> 00:44:18,000
Speaker 1: And I think these are both in the top ten

1010
00:44:18,040 --> 00:44:21,080
Speaker 1: of neutral situations. But Cardinals dead last. The NFL in

1011
00:44:21,120 --> 00:44:23,640
Speaker 1: guarding tight ends thirty first the NFL and guarding backs

1012
00:44:23,640 --> 00:44:26,480
Speaker 1: out of the backfield. Well Ingram and Barkley are back.

1013
00:44:26,560 --> 00:44:28,799
Speaker 1: I think Ingram is a huge day. What did Hooper at?

1014
00:44:29,080 --> 00:44:31,000
Speaker 1: You know? Eight catches for one hundred and eighteen. The

1015
00:44:31,040 --> 00:44:33,359
Speaker 1: tight ends just rip up the Cardinals. I think Ingram

1016
00:44:33,360 --> 00:44:35,480
Speaker 1: have a huge day, Barkley have a big day. Cardinals

1017
00:44:35,480 --> 00:44:38,279
Speaker 1: will score against that bed Giants secondary. They'll go fast,

1018
00:44:38,280 --> 00:44:40,279
Speaker 1: but I think the Giants get it done. So I

1019
00:44:40,400 --> 00:44:43,800
Speaker 1: like the g men and the over all right stuck Berman.

1020
00:44:43,960 --> 00:44:45,759
Speaker 2: But yeah, it always worries me to bet on the

1021
00:44:45,760 --> 00:44:48,560
Speaker 2: Giants as a favorite at home against anyone but Washington.

1022
00:44:48,880 --> 00:44:51,080
Speaker 2: Them having some pieces back is good news for them.

1023
00:44:51,239 --> 00:44:52,440
Speaker 2: It's more of a toss up for me. I think

1024
00:44:52,480 --> 00:44:55,040
Speaker 2: the line's honestly probably about right with both of these

1025
00:44:55,040 --> 00:44:57,880
Speaker 2: teams being rated pretty even. We also have the Houston

1026
00:44:57,960 --> 00:45:02,120
Speaker 2: Texans visiting the Indianapolis col Colts favored by a point,

1027
00:45:02,160 --> 00:45:05,000
Speaker 2: Houston getting fifty four percent of the bets fifty one

1028
00:45:05,080 --> 00:45:08,400
Speaker 2: percent of the money. This has been the time to

1029
00:45:08,480 --> 00:45:11,480
Speaker 2: bet onto Shaun Watson. He is eight and two against

1030
00:45:11,480 --> 00:45:13,200
Speaker 2: the spread as a road underdog.

1031
00:45:13,760 --> 00:45:15,839
Speaker 1: Next game up Oakland at green Bay.

1032
00:45:16,000 --> 00:45:18,200
Speaker 2: This is one where I think you're starting to see

1033
00:45:18,480 --> 00:45:21,160
Speaker 2: some sharps coming in on the Raiders here because this

1034
00:45:21,239 --> 00:45:24,240
Speaker 2: line is down to Oakland plus five and a half.

1035
00:45:24,320 --> 00:45:26,799
Speaker 2: They are getting fifty three percent of the tickets with

1036
00:45:26,840 --> 00:45:30,120
Speaker 2: fifty eight percent of the money. We're seeing the over

1037
00:45:30,200 --> 00:45:32,920
Speaker 2: under pretty much stay put at forty seven with sixty

1038
00:45:33,120 --> 00:45:35,200
Speaker 2: percent of the tickets and money there anything on this one.

1039
00:45:35,360 --> 00:45:38,319
Speaker 1: This I think line is getting a little crazier. You know,

1040
00:45:38,560 --> 00:45:41,080
Speaker 1: for you trend players, teams off of a bye playing

1041
00:45:41,080 --> 00:45:43,319
Speaker 1: teams on a short week on mother thanlight football are

1042
00:45:43,320 --> 00:45:45,759
Speaker 1: fifteen and thirty against the spread since nineteen ninety nine.

1043
00:45:45,760 --> 00:45:47,799
Speaker 1: Fifteen and thirty the ones with the you know, ten

1044
00:45:47,840 --> 00:45:50,640
Speaker 1: extra days of rest probably meetingless at a forty five

1045
00:45:50,640 --> 00:45:52,960
Speaker 1: game sample size, but just throwing that out there. This

1046
00:45:53,080 --> 00:45:55,200
Speaker 1: this line's getting a little too cute. It's down the

1047
00:45:55,239 --> 00:45:56,799
Speaker 1: five and a half saying that Green Bay is only

1048
00:45:56,840 --> 00:45:58,800
Speaker 1: two and a half points better two two and a

1049
00:45:58,800 --> 00:46:01,200
Speaker 1: half than the Raiders on an nutral field. I know

1050
00:46:01,239 --> 00:46:04,120
Speaker 1: the Packers have injuries, but here's the thing. The Raiders

1051
00:46:04,160 --> 00:46:07,680
Speaker 1: do not get any pressure what soever. I don't think

1052
00:46:07,680 --> 00:46:08,920
Speaker 1: they have a single player on their team in the

1053
00:46:08,920 --> 00:46:13,080
Speaker 1: top seventy. If in edge pressure and their corners stink,

1054
00:46:13,360 --> 00:46:15,759
Speaker 1: you know they're solid on their offensive line. Jacobs could

1055
00:46:15,800 --> 00:46:17,439
Speaker 1: have some success on the ground, that's all you worry about.

1056
00:46:17,480 --> 00:46:19,440
Speaker 1: It's a Packers packer. But I don't care who's hurt

1057
00:46:19,440 --> 00:46:21,080
Speaker 1: on the outside for the Packers. If you give Aaron

1058
00:46:21,120 --> 00:46:23,960
Speaker 1: Rodgers time against back corners, Chris Raybond could be out

1059
00:46:23,960 --> 00:46:25,759
Speaker 1: on the slot and he's going to find you and

1060
00:46:25,800 --> 00:46:27,440
Speaker 1: he's going to put in a window. So I think

1061
00:46:27,520 --> 00:46:29,600
Speaker 1: Rodgers is going to move the ball. So I think

1062
00:46:29,600 --> 00:46:31,359
Speaker 1: this is dangerous. I think it's a little too cute

1063
00:46:31,360 --> 00:46:33,120
Speaker 1: with the Raiders. I don't know if I'm taking the Packers,

1064
00:46:33,280 --> 00:46:35,520
Speaker 1: but I sure as Helle would need seven or more

1065
00:46:35,560 --> 00:46:37,640
Speaker 1: to take the Raiders here. So yeah, I think it's

1066
00:46:37,640 --> 00:46:38,760
Speaker 1: Packers are nothing here.

1067
00:46:39,000 --> 00:46:42,560
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, the Raiders did play some easy opponents

1068
00:46:42,560 --> 00:46:45,920
Speaker 2: along the way Broncos Bears on offense, but you look

1069
00:46:46,000 --> 00:46:49,840
Speaker 2: up and they're actually number fourteen in early down success

1070
00:46:49,920 --> 00:46:53,080
Speaker 2: rate allowed on defense against the pass and Packers are thirteen.

1071
00:46:53,120 --> 00:46:56,120
Speaker 2: So they're pretty evenly matched. But again I think that

1072
00:46:56,239 --> 00:47:00,920
Speaker 2: the schedules create some discrepancy there. Next game, Jacksonville at Cincinnati.

1073
00:47:01,360 --> 00:47:04,839
Speaker 2: The Bengals are three and a half points underdogs. Jagg

1074
00:47:04,920 --> 00:47:08,360
Speaker 2: is getting seventy eight percent of the betting tickets, seventy

1075
00:47:08,360 --> 00:47:11,560
Speaker 2: five percent of the money, and the over under currently

1076
00:47:11,600 --> 00:47:13,759
Speaker 2: sits at forty three and a half with sixty three

1077
00:47:13,840 --> 00:47:15,960
Speaker 2: percent of the tickets but eighty nine percent of the

1078
00:47:16,000 --> 00:47:17,640
Speaker 2: money going toward that under.

1079
00:47:17,920 --> 00:47:18,160
Speaker 3: Yeah.

1080
00:47:18,200 --> 00:47:20,719
Speaker 1: Look, I wanted to bet the Bengals here. I think

1081
00:47:20,760 --> 00:47:23,239
Speaker 1: Minshew magic has ran out. And as you've seen in

1082
00:47:23,239 --> 00:47:25,799
Speaker 1: the last couple of games, you know, the Bengals are

1083
00:47:25,880 --> 00:47:27,920
Speaker 1: zero and six and they've been fighting. They fought at

1084
00:47:27,920 --> 00:47:30,960
Speaker 1: the Bills, they fought at the Ravens, but then the

1085
00:47:31,000 --> 00:47:33,719
Speaker 1: injuries they continue to happen. The Bengals had one of

1086
00:47:33,760 --> 00:47:36,520
Speaker 1: the two of the worst linebacking corps in the NFL.

1087
00:47:36,880 --> 00:47:40,240
Speaker 1: Brown and vigil and they can't cover backs and tight ends.

1088
00:47:40,360 --> 00:47:41,759
Speaker 1: So I was like, all right, that's not a big

1089
00:47:41,760 --> 00:47:43,719
Speaker 1: problem against the Jaguars. So I don't even know if

1090
00:47:43,719 --> 00:47:45,880
Speaker 1: the Jaguars tight end is the week a swim And no,

1091
00:47:46,040 --> 00:47:48,640
Speaker 1: they're all hurt and for Nett's not going to kill

1092
00:47:48,640 --> 00:47:52,000
Speaker 1: you out of the backfield. But then I find out

1093
00:47:52,080 --> 00:47:56,000
Speaker 1: that Kirkpatrick and Jackson, their two starting corners, are both

1094
00:47:56,080 --> 00:47:58,160
Speaker 1: out this week and might be out for a couple

1095
00:47:58,160 --> 00:48:00,760
Speaker 1: of weeks. So the injuries along the offense of line,

1096
00:48:00,960 --> 00:48:04,120
Speaker 1: the injuries at safety. Now their two starting corners are out,

1097
00:48:04,480 --> 00:48:08,799
Speaker 1: and this is who right now is on the Cincinnati

1098
00:48:08,920 --> 00:48:12,080
Speaker 1: roster at corner. This is it. There's three guys. Are

1099
00:48:12,120 --> 00:48:14,960
Speaker 1: obviously gonna bring guys over the practice squad, Tony McCrae,

1100
00:48:15,239 --> 00:48:18,279
Speaker 1: Tory mctire, and b W Webb. As of right now,

1101
00:48:18,320 --> 00:48:20,280
Speaker 1: those are your starting corners. So I don't get Minshew

1102
00:48:20,320 --> 00:48:23,680
Speaker 1: or whoever. With Shark and Westbrook, they're gonna be able

1103
00:48:23,680 --> 00:48:25,520
Speaker 1: to move the ball. But I just don't think that

1104
00:48:25,560 --> 00:48:28,560
Speaker 1: the Jags in a sleepy spot are seven seven points

1105
00:48:28,560 --> 00:48:30,719
Speaker 1: better than the Bengals on a neutral field. But without

1106
00:48:30,760 --> 00:48:32,600
Speaker 1: the corners, now, this is a pass for me.

1107
00:48:32,800 --> 00:48:34,840
Speaker 2: Yeah, I kind of have the same thought because I

1108
00:48:34,840 --> 00:48:36,359
Speaker 2: think that when you have a team in the bad

1109
00:48:36,400 --> 00:48:39,080
Speaker 2: offensive line, where they're usually underrated by the market, is

1110
00:48:39,120 --> 00:48:40,800
Speaker 2: at home when it's not as tough for that offensive

1111
00:48:40,840 --> 00:48:42,080
Speaker 2: line to play well.

1112
00:48:42,160 --> 00:48:44,200
Speaker 1: So but but yeah, with the injury, it's probably a

1113
00:48:44,200 --> 00:48:44,880
Speaker 1: stay away from me.

1114
00:48:45,200 --> 00:48:48,239
Speaker 2: Maybe hit that under because I don't think that it'll

1115
00:48:48,280 --> 00:48:51,160
Speaker 2: be there'll be many fireworks in that one's last game.

1116
00:48:51,239 --> 00:48:55,080
Speaker 2: San Francisco forty nine ers, coming off the destruction of

1117
00:48:55,120 --> 00:48:57,880
Speaker 2: the Rams, holding Jared Goff to under one hundred yards passing,

1118
00:48:58,239 --> 00:49:01,600
Speaker 2: now go across the country to Washington. They are ten

1119
00:49:01,640 --> 00:49:05,120
Speaker 2: point favorites, San Francisco getting eighty one percent of the

1120
00:49:05,160 --> 00:49:09,160
Speaker 2: tickets after last week, but only sixty eight percent of

1121
00:49:09,200 --> 00:49:10,960
Speaker 2: the money. And I should throw in that and I

1122
00:49:10,960 --> 00:49:13,600
Speaker 2: think we talked about this once before, but when you

1123
00:49:13,600 --> 00:49:16,920
Speaker 2: get a team that's plus nine or plus ten, just

1124
00:49:16,960 --> 00:49:20,040
Speaker 2: a really tough number for a favorite to cover. Again,

1125
00:49:20,160 --> 00:49:24,240
Speaker 2: so those teams are actually covering at a remarkable eighty

1126
00:49:24,280 --> 00:49:26,400
Speaker 2: four percent clip over a forty five GM sample, as

1127
00:49:26,440 --> 00:49:28,879
Speaker 2: I think he wrote up before as well. So that's

1128
00:49:28,880 --> 00:49:30,520
Speaker 2: one thing to keep in mind if you want to

1129
00:49:30,600 --> 00:49:32,520
Speaker 2: kind of take the points with the Washington Redskins here,

1130
00:49:32,520 --> 00:49:34,600
Speaker 2: who are getting little healthier on the offensive line and

1131
00:49:34,600 --> 00:49:35,480
Speaker 2: could slow down the game.

1132
00:49:35,520 --> 00:49:37,360
Speaker 1: But what are your thoughts on this one? Yeah, I

1133
00:49:37,360 --> 00:49:39,000
Speaker 1: took the ten. I mean, look, anytime I can get

1134
00:49:39,040 --> 00:49:41,600
Speaker 1: a home dog catching ten that's not named the Dolphins,

1135
00:49:41,640 --> 00:49:44,480
Speaker 1: it's going to peauk my interest. You know, people are

1136
00:49:44,480 --> 00:49:46,440
Speaker 1: going to say out the West Coast team traveling east.

1137
00:49:46,719 --> 00:49:49,239
Speaker 1: That used to be an angle. It's really priced into

1138
00:49:49,239 --> 00:49:50,799
Speaker 1: the line now and teams are just so much better

1139
00:49:50,840 --> 00:49:53,600
Speaker 1: and smarter and healthier and about travel. So that's not

1140
00:49:53,719 --> 00:49:57,000
Speaker 1: really the edge here. But listen, the Niners have been

1141
00:49:57,040 --> 00:49:59,399
Speaker 1: really impressive, but last week you could see that their

1142
00:49:59,400 --> 00:50:03,600
Speaker 1: offense w wasn't as explosive without use checking their two

1143
00:50:04,200 --> 00:50:06,879
Speaker 1: starting tackles. Now they're going on the road, and last

1144
00:50:06,920 --> 00:50:09,680
Speaker 1: week they were at home. It might say it was

1145
00:50:09,680 --> 00:50:11,480
Speaker 1: a road game, but they were at home. That entire

1146
00:50:11,800 --> 00:50:14,360
Speaker 1: stadium was full of forty nine ers fans, so you

1147
00:50:14,440 --> 00:50:16,640
Speaker 1: might see the impact of that. I mean, last week,

1148
00:50:16,640 --> 00:50:19,240
Speaker 1: this is one of the best running teams in the NFL.

1149
00:50:19,280 --> 00:50:22,759
Speaker 1: Against the Rams, they ran the ball forty one times

1150
00:50:22,760 --> 00:50:25,480
Speaker 1: for ninety nine yards. That's two point four yards per carry,

1151
00:50:25,560 --> 00:50:27,360
Speaker 1: So you could see that the offense isn't going to

1152
00:50:27,400 --> 00:50:30,680
Speaker 1: be as efficient on the ground until they get used

1153
00:50:30,760 --> 00:50:33,319
Speaker 1: checking their tackles back. The forty nine Ers should still

1154
00:50:33,360 --> 00:50:36,399
Speaker 1: win this game, but it's a semi flat spot. If

1155
00:50:36,400 --> 00:50:39,200
Speaker 1: you saw the forty nine Ers last week celebrating that

1156
00:50:39,239 --> 00:50:42,560
Speaker 1: win as they should have, I mean, you had Robert Salad,

1157
00:50:42,560 --> 00:50:44,960
Speaker 1: their defensive coordinator was going nuts and you gotta love him.

1158
00:50:44,960 --> 00:50:46,600
Speaker 1: You gotta love a defensive corner like that, and he's

1159
00:50:46,640 --> 00:50:49,560
Speaker 1: been awesome scheming up and their defensive line has been awesome.

1160
00:50:50,040 --> 00:50:53,160
Speaker 1: But you know, after that win over the Rams, they

1161
00:50:53,719 --> 00:50:56,359
Speaker 1: rolled the Browns. Now they go. You know they're one

1162
00:50:56,360 --> 00:50:59,359
Speaker 1: of two undefeated teams in the NFL. You know they're

1163
00:50:59,360 --> 00:51:02,359
Speaker 1: going to the lowly Redskins. I think it's a little

1164
00:51:02,360 --> 00:51:04,239
Speaker 1: bit of a flat spot, which means when I say that,

1165
00:51:04,280 --> 00:51:06,400
Speaker 1: they just come out a little flat. So the Redskins

1166
00:51:06,480 --> 00:51:08,560
Speaker 1: might go up ten to nothing and then you know,

1167
00:51:08,760 --> 00:51:10,680
Speaker 1: the forty nine Ers wake up and then win. That's

1168
00:51:10,680 --> 00:51:12,360
Speaker 1: that's where the value in that is is that I

1169
00:51:12,360 --> 00:51:15,160
Speaker 1: think the Redskins could get off to a quick start

1170
00:51:15,200 --> 00:51:17,560
Speaker 1: against a flat forty nine Ers team just a little

1171
00:51:17,600 --> 00:51:19,319
Speaker 1: too many points. And I think the poor Nuners are

1172
00:51:19,360 --> 00:51:21,040
Speaker 1: just a tad over value in the market, just like

1173
00:51:21,080 --> 00:51:23,479
Speaker 1: the Patriots are. And on the podcast later the weekend,

1174
00:51:23,480 --> 00:51:25,200
Speaker 1: I'll get into iy like the Jets, but the Patriots

1175
00:51:25,200 --> 00:51:26,919
Speaker 1: for dinners. The only two undfeet of the teams. Their

1176
00:51:27,080 --> 00:51:30,239
Speaker 1: strength of schedule Patriots two eighty one, nine Ers two

1177
00:51:30,360 --> 00:51:34,560
Speaker 1: seventy six. That's that's so low, it's ridiculous that. So

1178
00:51:34,600 --> 00:51:37,120
Speaker 1: they've played nobody, they beat nobody, so they're a little

1179
00:51:37,160 --> 00:51:39,239
Speaker 1: overvalued in the market. I'll take the Skins. There nothing

1180
00:51:39,280 --> 00:51:41,640
Speaker 1: under ten, Now, I'll hold your nose. Yeah, this match

1181
00:51:41,680 --> 00:51:42,840
Speaker 1: is a bet Lab Pro system.

1182
00:51:42,960 --> 00:51:45,600
Speaker 2: Faye teams on a roll which has gone ninety four

1183
00:51:46,120 --> 00:51:48,480
Speaker 2: and fifty against the spread, sixty five percent hit rate.

1184
00:51:48,600 --> 00:51:50,960
Speaker 1: And also Kyle Shanahan.

1185
00:51:50,719 --> 00:51:52,879
Speaker 2: As good as he is, this is probably the time

1186
00:51:52,920 --> 00:51:54,440
Speaker 2: if you're going to fade him. He is two and

1187
00:51:54,520 --> 00:51:56,759
Speaker 2: six as a favorite as a head coach of the

1188
00:51:56,760 --> 00:52:00,960
Speaker 2: San Francisco forty nine ers. So with that, get into

1189
00:52:01,080 --> 00:52:10,480
Speaker 2: our Survivor pool segment one pick one chance to advance Survivor.

1190
00:52:12,040 --> 00:52:15,560
Speaker 2: All right, so ended up outlasting you went with the

1191
00:52:15,600 --> 00:52:18,680
Speaker 2: Patriots last week, you know, breaking news they won the game.

1192
00:52:19,120 --> 00:52:21,320
Speaker 1: This week, I'm going with the Buffalo Bills. Just because

1193
00:52:21,400 --> 00:52:21,880
Speaker 1: I can't.

1194
00:52:21,719 --> 00:52:23,560
Speaker 2: See any other time, you know, even though I'm betting

1195
00:52:23,560 --> 00:52:25,439
Speaker 2: on the Dolphins of cover, I still can't see any

1196
00:52:25,440 --> 00:52:27,600
Speaker 2: other time I would want to use the Bills when

1197
00:52:27,600 --> 00:52:29,600
Speaker 2: they were a seventeen point home favorite.

1198
00:52:30,040 --> 00:52:32,920
Speaker 1: So yeah, that's my pick. Anything to add, Yeah, unless

1199
00:52:32,920 --> 00:52:35,359
Speaker 1: you use them already. I think that's the logical pick

1200
00:52:35,400 --> 00:52:38,360
Speaker 1: here with the Bills, if you wanted to get riskier,

1201
00:52:38,680 --> 00:52:41,480
Speaker 1: or if you already use the Bills. It's a tough week,

1202
00:52:41,680 --> 00:52:43,520
Speaker 1: you know, the forty nine ers on the road in

1203
00:52:43,520 --> 00:52:45,200
Speaker 1: a flat spot. It does scare me a little bit.

1204
00:52:45,200 --> 00:52:48,279
Speaker 1: I do think that they'll win, but if I were

1205
00:52:48,280 --> 00:52:52,120
Speaker 1: to go with another game, I'd probably and I might

1206
00:52:52,239 --> 00:52:54,719
Speaker 1: end up regretting this. Go with the Bears. That's how

1207
00:52:54,800 --> 00:52:57,880
Speaker 1: little of options there are this week. So I hopefully

1208
00:52:57,920 --> 00:52:59,799
Speaker 1: you didn't use the Bills. You know, if you have

1209
00:52:59,840 --> 00:53:01,719
Speaker 1: to go with the Patriots or forty nine ers, those

1210
00:53:01,719 --> 00:53:03,799
Speaker 1: aren't bad options either, But I think the Bills are

1211
00:53:03,800 --> 00:53:05,200
Speaker 1: the clear best option here this week.

1212
00:53:05,360 --> 00:53:08,120
Speaker 2: Yeah, the Bears scare me, honestly because Teddy Bridgewater now

1213
00:53:08,120 --> 00:53:09,720
Speaker 2: twenty seven and seven against the spread.

1214
00:53:09,719 --> 00:53:11,560
Speaker 1: If you bring to cred in this one, that means

1215
00:53:11,600 --> 00:53:13,680
Speaker 1: they win the game. So going with the Bills. Oh,

1216
00:53:13,719 --> 00:53:14,440
Speaker 1: the Bills scare me too.

1217
00:53:14,440 --> 00:53:16,560
Speaker 2: I mean, Josh Allen could throw three pick sixes or

1218
00:53:16,600 --> 00:53:18,399
Speaker 2: fumble into the end zone. They could get you mentioned

1219
00:53:18,400 --> 00:53:20,480
Speaker 2: they're bad special teams before I think so.

1220
00:53:21,080 --> 00:53:21,840
Speaker 1: Everything scares me.

1221
00:53:21,880 --> 00:53:23,040
Speaker 2: Not a great week, but you got to take the

1222
00:53:23,040 --> 00:53:26,440
Speaker 2: seventeen point favorite in a survivor pool.

1223
00:53:26,920 --> 00:53:28,680
Speaker 1: This does it for another episode of.

1224
00:53:28,640 --> 00:53:33,520
Speaker 2: The Action Network podcast NFL Betting Edition. Thanks for tuning in.

1225
00:53:33,920 --> 00:53:36,600
Speaker 2: You can follow Stucky on Twitter at Stucky two and

1226
00:53:36,719 --> 00:53:39,839
Speaker 2: myself at Chris Raybond, and you can also follow us

1227
00:53:40,200 --> 00:53:42,640
Speaker 2: on the same names on the Action Network app if

1228
00:53:42,640 --> 00:53:45,000
Speaker 2: you want to see our bets and track your odds

1229
00:53:45,280 --> 00:53:48,720
Speaker 2: in real time, as well as get in game win probabilities.

1230
00:53:49,239 --> 00:53:52,200
Speaker 2: Until next time, he's stuck on Raybon. Let's get this

1231
00:53:52,320 --> 00:53:53,279
Speaker 2: money and we're out of here.

1232
00:53:53,640 --> 00:53:57,719
Speaker 1: Go Pack, Go