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Speaker 1: Good luck with the most beautiful game. Jus proud read enough.

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Speaker 1: They're running a game so smooth, so sweet, tid sixteen,

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Speaker 1: just glorious execution.

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Speaker 2: Guys, all I'm looking for is sixty percent effort four

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Speaker 2: thousand percent of the time. How shot with that shop with.

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Speaker 3: Mind, buddy, and.

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Speaker 1: That's why you see.

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Speaker 4: Your beautiful tiers.

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Speaker 1: Look at his movements, the.

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Speaker 2: Most dangerous a mount of the planet.

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Speaker 1: Nobody kicks them.

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Speaker 3: Shut up, I'm trying.

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Speaker 4: The all It.

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Speaker 1: Left to one of the wide eyed, drilled bibused, how

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Speaker 1: on earth did that happened? Hello?

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Speaker 4: Everyone, Welcome back to Wondergal, the soccer betting podcast from

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Speaker 4: the Action Network. Mynay is Michael Lee Buff joining me

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Speaker 4: in just a moment are my co hosts, my friends,

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Speaker 4: my colleagues, PJ Cunningham and Anthony Dubundo. And for this episode,

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Speaker 4: we will be talking about the Champions League on Tuesday

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Speaker 4: and Wednesday. We'll do a quick peek at the Barcelona

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Speaker 4: Man United game later in the week as well. But

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Speaker 4: before we get into that, and before I bring in

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Speaker 4: PJ and Anthony, reminder that wonder goal is brought to

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Speaker 4: you by our friends at bet three six five. The

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Speaker 4: world's favorite sportsbook brand. Sign up with Promo Code Action

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Speaker 4: to get bet three six fives exclusive sign up offer

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Speaker 4: in New Jersey, Colorado, and Ohio where you bet one

29
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Speaker 4: dollar in any game and you get two hundred dollars free.

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Speaker 4: Four more Champions League matches, four more A round of

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Speaker 4: sixteen matches to dive into for this week. I'm going

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Speaker 4: to start with Frankfurt and Napoli. Obviously Liverpool Madrid is

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Speaker 4: the headliner, but let's get this Frankfort Napoli match out

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Speaker 4: of the way first. Frankfurt's plus two forty at home,

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Speaker 4: Napoli plus one ten on the road to draw US

36
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Speaker 4: plus two six. The Napolis lost two matches in Syria,

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Speaker 4: AH and the Champions League all season. If you combine

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Speaker 4: their records twenty five wins to draws, that's maybe more

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Speaker 4: impressive than anything, is that they've only drawn two matches

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Speaker 4: and two losses, so twenty two and two in Syria

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Speaker 4: and the Champions League. I kind of want to bet

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Speaker 4: Frankfurt to advance.

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Speaker 3: Here. Everybody is gonna be on Napoli.

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Speaker 4: This number is I think only going in one direction,

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Speaker 4: and it's I think it just comes down to one

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Speaker 4: of these big favorites is gonna lose and I'll take

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Speaker 4: the kind of young, inexperienced European team here to maybe

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Speaker 4: be that team going up against the defending Europa League

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Speaker 4: champions who By the way, Frankfurt's having a decent season

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Speaker 4: in Bundesliga. There's sixth expect the numbers say they should

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Speaker 4: be around fifth or six. I know you guys are

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Speaker 4: going to talk me out of it, but I think

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Speaker 4: that that's where I'd be looking, Anthony. Is there a

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Speaker 4: path to success here for the Germans?

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Speaker 5: I think the only way you can really make a

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Speaker 5: case for Frankfort here is if you think that Napoli

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Speaker 5: is overrated because their schedule, Like we kind of don't

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Speaker 5: know about Italy, how good is Italy as a league

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Speaker 5: because we all love Roma and you know they had

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Speaker 5: an okay performance in the Europa League last week. You

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Speaker 5: know they lost at Salzburg. I thought they were a

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Speaker 5: better team, but like they played Roma about even on

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Speaker 5: two separate occasions. They lost to Enter in their worst

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Speaker 5: game of the season at Inter where they created less

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Speaker 5: than half of an expected goal. They have, without a doubt,

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Speaker 5: trucked a lot of bad Syria teams. They've been dominant

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Speaker 5: in Syria, but if you think about the league, the

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Speaker 5: mid table and the lower part of Syria have probably

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Speaker 5: never been this bad.

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Speaker 2: There's just no money.

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Speaker 5: A lot of the good talent in Syria is getting

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Speaker 5: swept up by mid level teams in the Premier League

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Speaker 5: to the Bundesliga and La Liga, like they're not selling up

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Speaker 5: their own food chain, you know, to the Ventises of

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Speaker 5: the world and the Romas. Even so, you know, like

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Speaker 5: how good is the top of Serie I is kind

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Speaker 5: of the biggest question with Napoli because they had that

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Speaker 5: incredible showing against Liverpool at home in the first match

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Speaker 5: of the Champions League, and as impressive as that was,

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Speaker 5: like we have to remember, you know, what we thought

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Speaker 5: of Liverpool then versus what we think of them now,

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Speaker 5: Like Napoli was like perfectly built to take apart every

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Speaker 5: flaw that Liverpool has in transition defense especially. I think

84
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Speaker 5: that was like the coming out party. But like, at

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Speaker 5: some point we do have to respect the underlying numbers.

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Speaker 5: I've lost money fading this team on multiple occasions against Roma,

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Speaker 5: a couple of times against the Swallow last weekend.

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Speaker 2: They have some of them that they have a.

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Speaker 5: Lot of depth, but like Cavard, Scalia and Osherman have

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Speaker 5: like both had breakout star campaigns the same exact time,

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Speaker 5: and so like their ceiling is really high.

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Speaker 2: They could win this whole tournament.

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Speaker 5: I agree they're a little bit overvalued in the market

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Speaker 5: like week to week, but Frankfort, I mean I rail

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Speaker 5: against them every week or soccer editor a Free Exerman

96
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Speaker 5: was joking about it. He's like, you know, Dubunda, you

97
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Speaker 5: want this game, Like I know, you're just gonna, you know,

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Speaker 5: hate on Frankfort, who again had a pretty map performance

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Speaker 5: over the weekend. Like I just don't know that Frankfurt

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Speaker 5: is the team I want to bet against them with.

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Speaker 3: It's a fair point.

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Speaker 4: I just I guess it's it's almost one of those

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Speaker 4: situations where before the draw and even like kind of

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Speaker 4: in the week at the weeks that we've had off,

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Speaker 4: I'm like, I kind of just want to bet against

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Speaker 4: Napoli in the Champions League because you just see so

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Speaker 4: many so much love for them, whether it's in the

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Speaker 4: betting market or just you know on soccer Twitter every

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Speaker 4: weekend when they're pacing teams at Syria and Ocehaman's going

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Speaker 4: off and you're just I'm.

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Speaker 1: Like this this.

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Speaker 4: Eventually he's going to get to a point where they're

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Speaker 4: either gonna win the Champions League or you're gonna be

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Speaker 4: able to make money going against them. And we do

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Speaker 4: see a shock or two every you know, in these

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Speaker 4: first two knockout rounds around sixteen and quarterfinals LA. Last

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Speaker 4: year we saw via re outbeat Bayern Munich, I believe

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Speaker 4: in the quarterfinals, which was something nobody really saw it coming.

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Speaker 4: So this is not that obviously that was a much

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Speaker 4: more profound thing I would say. But yeah, we be

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Speaker 4: a play on just Napoli being overrated. We'll see it's

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Speaker 4: a tough environment to go to of course as well.

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Speaker 4: Like I don't know, bj what are your thoughts.

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Speaker 6: I'm getting closer and closer to playing Napoli here, but

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Speaker 6: I'm gonna need a better number, like I'm gonna need

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Speaker 6: plus one twenty five or better.

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Speaker 1: So I do project them at plus one oh three.

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Speaker 1: So I do.

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Speaker 6: I am project a little bit of value. Anthony mentioned

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Speaker 6: with Frankfurt. I mean they're they're overperforming offensively in the Bundesliga,

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Speaker 6: which is not a surprise because they did that last season.

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Speaker 6: Two twenty eight goals smoked the playoff of twenty one

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Speaker 6: point four expected eight set piece goals off of five

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Speaker 6: point four expected. It was interesting about Frankfort is there.

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Speaker 6: You know, if you look at a lot of their

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Speaker 6: their data points, they're a very interesting team because they

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Speaker 6: can play a blend of two different styles. So they're

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Speaker 6: build up attacks to direct attacks. OPTA is about the same.

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Speaker 6: It's thirty two direct attacks thirty four build up attacks.

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Speaker 1: But I went through and looked.

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Speaker 6: When they played teams where they weren't able to hold

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Speaker 6: fifty percent possession, they have a minus three point two

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Speaker 6: expected goal differential in those matches, and they'd better be

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Speaker 6: prepared to not have a lot of possession in this

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Speaker 6: match because Napoli is one of the most possessioned dominant

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Speaker 6: teams across Europe. But to Anthony's point, you know how

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Speaker 6: good is Syria. I is Napoli gonna be able to

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Speaker 6: hold that much possession against a team like Frankfort, especially

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Speaker 6: on the road.

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Speaker 1: And the Frankfort offense.

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Speaker 6: I mean, it's essentially just built on creating big scoring chances, right,

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Speaker 6: I mean they're what they're averaging eleven point two shots

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Speaker 6: per ninety that's fifteenth in the Bundesliga, but their fifth

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Speaker 6: and non penaltyu expected goals, having about one and a

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Speaker 6: half per ninety Napoli's allowed ten big scoring chances all

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Speaker 6: season long in Syria. A and Napoli obviously you mentioned

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Speaker 6: Oshman and Kabar Scalley. I mean they hurt to combined

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Speaker 6: one point five to eight x G plus expected assist

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Speaker 6: per ninety minutes like that is an incredible duo.

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Speaker 1: That's an incredible form.

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Speaker 6: Now, Frankfort is a very difficult place to go and

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Speaker 6: play right, and they have incredible fans. Plus eight point

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Speaker 6: two expected goldifrenchal at home this season, but Napoli has

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Speaker 6: been good just as good away from home.

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Speaker 1: As they have been at home.

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Speaker 6: Plus eleven point two expected gold differential away from home

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Speaker 6: in Syria and plus twelve point one at home. So

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Speaker 6: if Napoli gets to plus one twenty five, I have

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Speaker 6: to play them purely from a projection edge. I mean

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Speaker 6: five thirty eight does have Napoli a fifty percent, So

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Speaker 6: I will take Napoli. But it gets to plus one

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Speaker 6: twenty five, I don't know if we get there. There's

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Speaker 6: a plus one twenty out there right now. I just

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Speaker 6: keep staring at it. I can't hit it right now.

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Speaker 6: So hopefully it gets to plus one twenty five, but

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Speaker 6: we'll see. But yeah, I don't know if this is

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Speaker 6: the time to necessarily fade Napoli. I think when they

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Speaker 6: have to go up against one of these bigger sides

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Speaker 6: who's going to control a lot of possession, I think

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Speaker 6: that'll be the time to fade them.

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Speaker 5: I mean, Frankfurt finished with a negative expected goal difference

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Speaker 5: and like a bad Champions League group, a group of

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Speaker 5: teams that we all were like these teams caught them. Yeah,

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Speaker 5: Spurs we're in that in that group, Marseille and Sporting

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Speaker 5: lisbon U. And the other thing is like, you know,

186
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Speaker 5: when we think of Frankfort, you think of like the pressing,

187
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Speaker 5: and I do think it's a good point. Like Napoli

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Speaker 5: sixty one percent possession in Syria, like they are a

189
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Speaker 5: field tilt dotomination beast. You can't just let BArch Gillia

190
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Speaker 5: and Oshman walk into your penalty area. And Frankfurt's pressing

191
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Speaker 5: numbers in Germany like aren't that good. They're kind of

192
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Speaker 5: middle of the road, and like passes allowed a pass

193
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Speaker 5: complete percentage allowed. They were average in the Champions League

194
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Speaker 5: group matches. So like their back line man like it

195
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Speaker 5: could get really really exposed here, Like I wish they'd

196
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Speaker 5: gotten a different opponent, like any team that wasn't unbelievably

197
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Speaker 5: overinflated in the market right now, and I would have

198
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Speaker 5: loved to fade Frankfurt.

199
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Speaker 2: But yeah, this is a tough one.

200
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Speaker 5: This is the hardest match I think of all eight

201
00:09:42,559 --> 00:09:44,040
Speaker 5: in the round of sixteen that I've gone back and

202
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Speaker 5: forth on a lot.

203
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Speaker 2: And I will have a full preview for this.

204
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Speaker 5: I'm gonna kind of break down both sides of the

205
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Speaker 5: matchup and kind of wear take a long walk and yeah.

206
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Speaker 2: Take a long walk and eventually settle on something.

207
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Speaker 5: Might even hit the prop market or something, because getting

208
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Speaker 5: to a side or a total here is really tough.

209
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Speaker 5: It will be interesting to see though, like Napoli getting

210
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Speaker 5: tested outside of Italy because if you look at it,

211
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Speaker 5: like they did concede over one expect to go to

212
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Speaker 5: i AX. In both meetings they did concede two to

213
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Speaker 5: Atalanta over one to to Juventus, even though they destroyed

214
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Speaker 5: Juventus the other way, and that was Uventus is like

215
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Speaker 5: a team who just just doesn't press, Like if you

216
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Speaker 5: don't press this team, like you will get destroyed. So

217
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Speaker 5: we'll see be fine, it could be a good match,

218
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Speaker 5: but I've got no bet as of now.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, they pumped that really good Rangers team too, and

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Speaker 6: the Champions League.

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Speaker 4: Well, I mean that's yeah, that's the like that that

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Speaker 4: deck group went from being the group of death too, right.

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Speaker 6: Like Okay, So if you also, if you look at

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Speaker 6: it like Napoli, like this, the second meeting against Liverpool

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Speaker 6: meant nothing and they got pumped in that one. That's

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Speaker 6: like the only match that you can look at and

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Speaker 6: you can say, like, yeah, they were completely outplayed and

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Speaker 6: beaten this season.

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Speaker 1: Other than that, it's like and.

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Speaker 5: They didn't really even you talked about the two draws

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Speaker 5: they were in the first month of the year. Yeah,

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Speaker 5: and they in Syria, like they've won every Seria match

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Speaker 5: since October except for the loss to Enter, which uh

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Speaker 5: inter I thought, they're really good job pressing them and

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Speaker 5: like just kind of taking far skilly out of it.

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Speaker 5: I don't think Frankfort's nearly as good on the back

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Speaker 5: line defensively.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, like, if you're playing Frankfort, you're just

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Speaker 4: kind of banking on this number being.

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Speaker 6: I mean, if you're gonna play Frankfort, wait wait until

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Speaker 6: match time. Wait until match time because it's numbers. I mean,

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Speaker 6: I'm guessing, if you know NAPTI puts the freak line

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Speaker 6: up out there, it's gonna be it's gonna close that probably.

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Speaker 5: Every every Twitter capper in the world is gonna be

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Speaker 5: on Nappoly money.

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Speaker 3: And that's what I'm saying to wait.

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Speaker 6: That's why I'm trying to get plus one twenty five,

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Speaker 6: and I don't think I'm gonna get it, so I'm

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Speaker 6: probably just getting the passing and.

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Speaker 1: Just waiting and just see what happens.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I think that's that's kind of the alert of

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Speaker 4: the bet to me is like I know where this

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Speaker 4: line's going, and I know where Napolis going, which is

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Speaker 4: a tough environment, and they're you know, maybe Frankfort gets

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Speaker 4: lucky here h plus two twenty five to advance Frankfort

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Speaker 4: is minus three hundred. Of course those numbers are at

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Speaker 4: bet three six five. Let's talk the other Tuesday match.

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Speaker 4: This is hilarious that these two teams threw each other

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Speaker 4: again or playing each other again, and it's Liverpool.

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Speaker 3: And Real Madrid.

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Speaker 4: I wonder if most Salah's gonna tweet, you know, uh,

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Speaker 4: this time we're getting his revenge tweet. Whatever that was

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Speaker 4: from last I'm butchering it, but you know we all

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Speaker 4: remember it. You two were all over Liverpool in the final.

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Speaker 3: I told you just.

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Speaker 6: One.

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Speaker 3: I didn't know Anthony was there trying to get it.

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Speaker 1: Had had on France.

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Speaker 5: It was nacious shot on goal over and it hit

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Speaker 5: hit with the only shot on goal I think.

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Speaker 2: We had in the match.

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Speaker 3: And what do they do? They won. Liverpool's plus one

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Speaker 3: thirty at home. Uh the Ancelota Madrid is two to one.

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Speaker 3: The draws plus two sixty.

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Speaker 4: Liverpool is plus one o five to advance Real Madrid

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Speaker 4: hanging around minus one forty three at BT three six five.

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Speaker 4: I mean, we've seen Liverpool put it together. Two good

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Speaker 4: performances in the Premier League in a row.

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Speaker 2: They're back.

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Speaker 3: They're back, right there, Yeah, they're back.

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Speaker 4: They they beat they beat they beat Sean Dych is

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Speaker 4: everything at home and they went on the road to

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Speaker 4: beat Newcastle, a banged up Newcastle side had a red card.

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Speaker 4: But uh, I think plus two hundred on Real Madrid

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Speaker 4: against this. This this version of Liverpool, as you said, Anthony,

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Speaker 4: this this is not the Liverpool we thought we were

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Speaker 4: getting when these Champions League groups came out.

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Speaker 3: That draw came out.

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Speaker 4: I mean, I think the number is maybe not all

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Speaker 4: that enticing on Madrid, but it'd be that way or

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Speaker 4: nothing for me. We know where you're going, your red,

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Speaker 4: your blood runs red through and throughing.

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Speaker 5: Liverpool more than betting on them this year. But I'm

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Speaker 5: betting on them to on Tuesday. Yeah, I think we've

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Speaker 5: all you know, we've we followed the Preme more closer

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Speaker 5: than La Liga, and so you know, we talk about

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Speaker 5: Liverpool almost every week on the show, and I think

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Speaker 5: just maybe it's because it's in my media ecosystem, but

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Speaker 5: I feel like we've done way more of the oh

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Speaker 5: my god, what's wrong with Liverpool? They're broken, they're dead,

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Speaker 5: they're cooked, they stink, and we haven't done nearly enough

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Speaker 5: of like the wait a minute, like real Madrid's kind

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Speaker 5: of floundering a little bit in the league, and like

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Speaker 5: I know they do this every year, where like their

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Speaker 5: league performances tend to lag and then they turn it

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Speaker 5: on for.

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Speaker 2: The Champions League.

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Speaker 5: Most of the Champions League magic, for reality doesn't usually

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Speaker 5: start to the second leg. So maybe that'll happen here,

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Speaker 5: you know, they'll pull off, like and I could absolutely

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Speaker 5: see a world where like Liverpool goes to anfield with

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Speaker 5: a lead or goes to the Burnabout with a lead

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Speaker 5: and like crumbles in the second leg.

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Speaker 2: But you know we've seen Ancelotti.

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Speaker 5: I think this is kind of profile similar to last

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Speaker 5: year's first leg against PSG, where they're going to go

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Speaker 5: there with like the intention of just keeping this game

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Speaker 5: competitive and then getting it at home and taking their

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Speaker 5: chances with them, because PSG totally dominated the first leg

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Speaker 5: of the Round of sixteen last year, and it's kind

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Speaker 5: of similar here, Like Liverpool has similar weaknesses to that

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Speaker 5: PSG team, I think, like stylistically in the sense that

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Speaker 5: like the transition defense is kind of mess and like

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Speaker 5: that is scary with Venetius and Benzema. But like this

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Speaker 5: Real Madrid team is bottom three in La Liga in

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Speaker 5: past completion percentage allowed, Like you can just play right

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Speaker 5: through this team like they're not really there.

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Speaker 2: That's why their defense stinks.

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Speaker 5: I mean they give up a ton of chances in

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Speaker 5: La Liga, in a lot of Liga that you know,

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Speaker 5: we talk about this with Barcelona in a little bit too,

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Speaker 5: which I thought was, you know, I don't think we've

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Speaker 5: given enough credence too. But like the La Liga, attacking

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Speaker 5: talent seems to be worse this year. And you've got

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Speaker 5: you know, Real Madrid allowing over one expected goal per

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Speaker 5: match in that league. That's compared to like a Barcelona

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Speaker 5: who gave up you know, who give up basically nothing

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Speaker 5: to opponents.

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Speaker 3: You know, they're under.

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Speaker 5: Under zero point seven to eight expected goals allowed per match.

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Speaker 5: So like this is a bad defense that doesn't stop

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Speaker 5: the ball, that doesn't press going up against a Liverpool attack.

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Speaker 2: I mean, we don't know about Darwin Junia.

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Speaker 5: Which is kind of scary, but like they're finally getting

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Speaker 5: a little bit healthier with it, dyke back and you know,

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Speaker 5: Gakpo finally gets his in the goals. Like this is

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Speaker 5: still a team that if you just give them the

348
00:16:07,680 --> 00:16:10,360
Speaker 5: ball and let them have the ball on your final third,

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Speaker 5: they will tear you to shreds. Like the attack never

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Speaker 5: got worse. The attack was always good for Liverpool, even

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Speaker 5: during this this poor stretch they went through. So I

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Speaker 5: like the reds at home, I was really hoping we'd

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Speaker 5: get a pick and it was trending that way, but

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Speaker 5: it appears Liverpool righted the ship just just in time

355
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Speaker 5: to keep that number down. So like pick is like

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Speaker 5: minus one thirty five I'd rather just take the money line.

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Speaker 2: I think they're gonna win.

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Speaker 5: Plus one thirty five plus one forties are out there.

359
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Speaker 5: I mean the Reds you'll never walk alone Tuesday, and

360
00:16:40,240 --> 00:16:41,720
Speaker 5: maybe they'll walk alone at the burn A Bow in

361
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Speaker 5: a month, but they're not walking alone tomorrow or Tuesday.

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Speaker 4: So yeah, I think that was the silver lining for

363
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Speaker 4: me with these that ever didn't match. Just like get

364
00:16:53,120 --> 00:16:56,440
Speaker 4: people are gonna think that Liverpool's back and everything's fixed,

365
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Speaker 4: and perhaps I get to beat them with with my

366
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Speaker 4: man Carlo Chelade, the best manager the side of Sean

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Speaker 4: Deutsche BJ.

368
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Speaker 3: What are your thoughts here.

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Speaker 6: I actually like the over three goals at plus one ten.

370
00:17:10,920 --> 00:17:12,239
Speaker 6: You know, Anthony hit the nail on the head there

371
00:17:12,280 --> 00:17:14,479
Speaker 6: with Real Madrid is that, you know, if you look

372
00:17:14,480 --> 00:17:16,679
Speaker 6: at their expected goals numbers in La Liga, you know,

373
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Speaker 6: allowing one expected goal for ninety point seven to seven

374
00:17:19,640 --> 00:17:22,360
Speaker 6: non penalty expected goals for ninety minutes. It doesn't really

375
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Speaker 6: tell the story because, like you mentioned, the attacking talent's

376
00:17:25,320 --> 00:17:28,960
Speaker 6: not really great in La Liga this season. So Real

377
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Speaker 6: Madrid against the top five offense because they're the number

378
00:17:31,359 --> 00:17:34,119
Speaker 6: one offense in La Liga, so the five offenses below

379
00:17:34,160 --> 00:17:39,640
Speaker 6: them which is Barcelona, Rial, Bettis, Girona, Athletico Madrid and Virial.

380
00:17:40,520 --> 00:17:42,600
Speaker 6: The five matches they played against those five teams, they've

381
00:17:42,600 --> 00:17:46,800
Speaker 6: conceded seven point nine expected goals plus. Courtois really isn't

382
00:17:46,840 --> 00:17:49,480
Speaker 6: having that great of a season in that he's a

383
00:17:49,520 --> 00:17:52,359
Speaker 6: minus point nine post shot actually plus minus. If we

384
00:17:52,440 --> 00:17:56,480
Speaker 6: remember in that Champions League final Liverpool outshot Real Madrid

385
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Speaker 6: twenty four to four. Maybe the U expected goals two

386
00:17:59,680 --> 00:18:02,960
Speaker 6: point two to two point nine and Courtois made nine saves

387
00:18:03,359 --> 00:18:05,439
Speaker 6: like it was and of course it was just like

388
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Speaker 6: a perfect crescendo culmination of the Real Madrid the luck

389
00:18:08,720 --> 00:18:11,760
Speaker 6: box to go win the champions like it was just perfect. Right, Well,

390
00:18:12,520 --> 00:18:14,879
Speaker 6: things have changed since that Champions League final, right, I mean,

391
00:18:14,920 --> 00:18:17,359
Speaker 6: Liverpool last season was a point eight to nine x

392
00:18:17,480 --> 00:18:19,359
Speaker 6: G per ninety defense. Now they're at one point four

393
00:18:19,359 --> 00:18:23,840
Speaker 6: to three. And there's a very interesting tackto dilemma that

394
00:18:23,920 --> 00:18:26,720
Speaker 6: Jurgen Klop is dealing with right now. The fact that

395
00:18:27,400 --> 00:18:28,800
Speaker 6: we've said it like I don't know how many weeks

396
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Speaker 6: in a row, that their midfield is old, they're lights,

397
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Speaker 6: they can't press like they used to, so at times

398
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Speaker 6: Klop has gone to a four to five one mid

399
00:18:37,119 --> 00:18:38,840
Speaker 6: block instead of their usual four to three to three

400
00:18:38,880 --> 00:18:41,480
Speaker 6: high press narrow force you to play the ball out wide.

401
00:18:42,560 --> 00:18:44,240
Speaker 6: It's a very dangerous game to play a four to

402
00:18:44,280 --> 00:18:45,960
Speaker 6: five to one and let Real Madrid have the ball

403
00:18:46,000 --> 00:18:47,479
Speaker 6: and just try to pass right through you, because as

404
00:18:47,560 --> 00:18:49,520
Speaker 6: we've seen with Liverpool when they've tried to do that

405
00:18:49,520 --> 00:18:52,040
Speaker 6: against teams like Brighton, who can possess the ball and

406
00:18:52,040 --> 00:18:54,840
Speaker 6: pass it, they can just play right through you and

407
00:18:55,000 --> 00:18:58,159
Speaker 6: get the ball out wide. You mentioned Anthony Venetius Junior

408
00:18:58,240 --> 00:19:00,280
Speaker 6: upon the left going against Trent Alexander Arnold is a

409
00:19:00,400 --> 00:19:03,959
Speaker 6: very very dangerous thing that Liverpool. I don't really know

410
00:19:04,040 --> 00:19:07,080
Speaker 6: how they're going to defend that or solve that. And

411
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Speaker 6: Liverpool's defense, I mean just because they've kept two Clint sheets,

412
00:19:10,560 --> 00:19:13,080
Speaker 6: it's like it's not like this defense is automatically back.

413
00:19:13,520 --> 00:19:18,520
Speaker 6: I mean, Liverpool hasn't held an opponent under one and

414
00:19:18,520 --> 00:19:21,800
Speaker 6: a half expected goals not managed by Sean Deitsch since

415
00:19:21,920 --> 00:19:25,760
Speaker 6: December thirtieth against Leicester, Like everybody's just been able to

416
00:19:25,760 --> 00:19:27,359
Speaker 6: play right through them and create a ton of chances

417
00:19:27,400 --> 00:19:30,679
Speaker 6: against them. Plus Liverpool against the Big Six, plus they

418
00:19:30,680 --> 00:19:33,119
Speaker 6: are two matches in the Champions against Napoli, there's about

419
00:19:33,119 --> 00:19:37,280
Speaker 6: twelve point seven expected goals in seven matches, So it's

420
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Speaker 6: a very like both these defenses are really really bad,

421
00:19:39,840 --> 00:19:41,520
Speaker 6: and I don't really see a path to either of

422
00:19:41,560 --> 00:19:47,120
Speaker 6: them really really stopping the other one. And it looks like,

423
00:19:47,119 --> 00:19:49,159
Speaker 6: like you mentionedthew the Red's getting healthy. We don't know

424
00:19:49,240 --> 00:19:51,680
Speaker 6: the stats, Darwin Uniyez, but I hope you two haven't

425
00:19:51,720 --> 00:19:53,480
Speaker 6: ripped up your Golden boot tickets yet, because it looks

426
00:19:53,520 --> 00:19:54,600
Speaker 6: like Diego Jota.

427
00:19:54,440 --> 00:19:56,160
Speaker 1: Is going to finally be back in the lineup.

428
00:19:56,640 --> 00:20:00,639
Speaker 6: And if we remember least he has, he's already had

429
00:20:00,640 --> 00:20:04,720
Speaker 6: about a points three four x g P ninety right now,

430
00:20:04,720 --> 00:20:05,960
Speaker 6: but he's all what about goals?

431
00:20:06,080 --> 00:20:08,160
Speaker 2: Has he scored a goal in the year? I don't.

432
00:20:08,200 --> 00:20:10,399
Speaker 6: I don't know I'm scoring a goal, But we remember,

433
00:20:10,480 --> 00:20:13,000
Speaker 6: if we forget last year, he was actually outside of

434
00:20:13,040 --> 00:20:15,399
Speaker 6: solid he was one of their most important players. Like

435
00:20:15,400 --> 00:20:17,439
Speaker 6: he was a point eight to four actually plus expected

436
00:20:17,480 --> 00:20:20,200
Speaker 6: to this per ninety minute rate, second behind Solid team,

437
00:20:20,280 --> 00:20:24,040
Speaker 6: better than Saudiomane and Liverpool has been underperforming offensively out

438
00:20:24,040 --> 00:20:26,320
Speaker 6: of the World Cup break. They've created fifteen point seven

439
00:20:26,320 --> 00:20:29,200
Speaker 6: expected goals and in eight matches and have only scored

440
00:20:29,280 --> 00:20:32,040
Speaker 6: nine of them, so I love the over three goals

441
00:20:32,080 --> 00:20:35,520
Speaker 6: at plus one ten. Both these defenses suck really really bad.

442
00:20:35,720 --> 00:20:37,760
Speaker 6: I mean, this game is going to become very transitional,

443
00:20:38,119 --> 00:20:41,679
Speaker 6: which favors and also doesn't favor Liverpool and also favors

444
00:20:41,680 --> 00:20:43,520
Speaker 6: Real Madrid. It's just, yeah, it's gonna be I think,

445
00:20:43,560 --> 00:20:46,720
Speaker 6: a perfectly chaotic type match. So I do have three

446
00:20:46,760 --> 00:20:49,480
Speaker 6: point two goals projected, so over three goals at plus

447
00:20:49,480 --> 00:20:51,080
Speaker 6: one ten, it's been enough for me.

448
00:20:51,840 --> 00:20:53,920
Speaker 5: It's about the same line as the Champions League final,

449
00:20:53,960 --> 00:20:57,159
Speaker 5: which was Rachel site. You have down grade Liverpool, I

450
00:20:57,160 --> 00:20:59,600
Speaker 5: think more than Real Madrid. But how much more That's

451
00:20:59,640 --> 00:21:02,520
Speaker 5: a question also off topic, But I did think it

452
00:21:02,520 --> 00:21:05,760
Speaker 5: was funny Today. The broadcast was hyping up Marcus Rashford

453
00:21:05,760 --> 00:21:07,000
Speaker 5: and one of the commentator, I don't know who the

454
00:21:07,000 --> 00:21:09,120
Speaker 5: commentator was, but he said, like, you know, he's really

455
00:21:09,119 --> 00:21:11,360
Speaker 5: given a run for Golden.

456
00:21:11,000 --> 00:21:13,800
Speaker 2: Boot with Early Holland and I'm like, no way, that's true.

457
00:21:13,840 --> 00:21:16,240
Speaker 5: And then they NBC Sports put up the graphic and

458
00:21:16,320 --> 00:21:19,200
Speaker 5: he's like, oh, he's only twelve goals behind for Golden Boo.

459
00:21:19,800 --> 00:21:20,560
Speaker 2: It was really funny.

460
00:21:20,920 --> 00:21:23,280
Speaker 6: Oh, by the way, I forgot to mention this Liverpool

461
00:21:24,600 --> 00:21:27,280
Speaker 6: after the red card with Nick Pope like, they still

462
00:21:27,280 --> 00:21:30,800
Speaker 6: conceded one point seven spectacles and thirteen shots to Newcastle.

463
00:21:31,119 --> 00:21:32,119
Speaker 2: All on set pieces.

464
00:21:32,240 --> 00:21:35,240
Speaker 1: Yeah right, let's not act like, yeah, let's not lack

465
00:21:35,320 --> 00:21:36,920
Speaker 1: like this defense is suddenly back.

466
00:21:37,320 --> 00:21:39,480
Speaker 5: I'll be a majoralty because he had Newcastle team total

467
00:21:39,520 --> 00:21:40,560
Speaker 5: over again, I did.

468
00:21:42,600 --> 00:21:44,159
Speaker 3: Madrid as his tradition.

469
00:21:45,280 --> 00:21:47,480
Speaker 2: I might take a venecious shots on target over again.

470
00:21:47,560 --> 00:21:49,479
Speaker 3: Yeah old days, yeah or not?

471
00:21:50,760 --> 00:21:55,040
Speaker 4: Maybe debout courtois over nine and a half saves and

472
00:21:55,200 --> 00:21:58,760
Speaker 4: dear Milan, this is Wednesday. They are minus one thirty

473
00:21:58,760 --> 00:22:02,760
Speaker 4: four hosting port though out of Portugal, plus four hundred

474
00:22:02,800 --> 00:22:04,639
Speaker 4: to draws plus two sixty anty.

475
00:22:04,720 --> 00:22:07,119
Speaker 3: I'm just gonna turn it to you. These two teams.

476
00:22:07,800 --> 00:22:08,800
Speaker 3: The odds tell us.

477
00:22:08,640 --> 00:22:14,440
Speaker 4: That enter should they're one of the bigger favorites to advance.

478
00:22:16,440 --> 00:22:18,920
Speaker 4: They're minus two twenty five plus one sixty two. You

479
00:22:19,080 --> 00:22:24,280
Speaker 4: think the ceiling unenters like pretty high in this tournament.

480
00:22:24,320 --> 00:22:27,560
Speaker 4: We talked about it a little bit. They're hanging around

481
00:22:27,560 --> 00:22:30,800
Speaker 4: in that mid tier like thirty three to one. We're

482
00:22:30,840 --> 00:22:33,760
Speaker 4: all kind of expecting that the next round to look

483
00:22:33,840 --> 00:22:39,800
Speaker 4: pretty sow like just beatable for basically anybody. Why are

484
00:22:39,800 --> 00:22:41,919
Speaker 4: they a team that you believe can can do it.

485
00:22:43,520 --> 00:22:45,200
Speaker 5: That's the thing, Like, I don't know how high the

486
00:22:45,280 --> 00:22:47,960
Speaker 5: ceiling is. I think their floor is super high. I

487
00:22:47,960 --> 00:22:49,920
Speaker 5: think they're a good team that they've done it in

488
00:22:50,480 --> 00:22:52,480
Speaker 5: Europe and they've shown they can compete with teams like

489
00:22:52,520 --> 00:22:56,080
Speaker 5: Liverpool and then you know, got through a good, you know,

490
00:22:56,160 --> 00:22:57,800
Speaker 5: good showing in the Champions League group.

491
00:22:57,640 --> 00:23:02,480
Speaker 2: In a tough group. But like, how high is the ceiling.

492
00:23:02,560 --> 00:23:05,879
Speaker 2: Can they beat a Buyer or a City over two legs?

493
00:23:06,480 --> 00:23:06,919
Speaker 2: I don't know.

494
00:23:07,040 --> 00:23:09,600
Speaker 5: I'm like kind of iffy on that, but I don't

495
00:23:09,640 --> 00:23:11,879
Speaker 5: think there's anybody else that they couldn't. Like, you know,

496
00:23:11,920 --> 00:23:15,399
Speaker 5: we've seen them beat Napoli and really shut down Napoli

497
00:23:15,800 --> 00:23:17,879
Speaker 5: in a year where all of the teams at the

498
00:23:17,880 --> 00:23:22,480
Speaker 5: top except City have defenses that make you kind of cringe.

499
00:23:23,280 --> 00:23:25,760
Speaker 5: Inter might be like the second best defense in the

500
00:23:26,320 --> 00:23:30,240
Speaker 5: whole tournament. Left you can like, who else is better defensively?

501
00:23:30,760 --> 00:23:31,359
Speaker 1: Benefica?

502
00:23:32,240 --> 00:23:35,680
Speaker 5: Yeah, so you love Benfica other than them, Like I'm

503
00:23:35,680 --> 00:23:38,919
Speaker 5: just kidding, I don't know, there's not really a lot

504
00:23:38,960 --> 00:23:42,960
Speaker 5: of great defenses. So you run some good set piece variants,

505
00:23:43,480 --> 00:23:46,560
Speaker 5: you defend really well, and you have a high floor

506
00:23:46,600 --> 00:23:48,600
Speaker 5: and you get a bounce or two in a wide

507
00:23:48,600 --> 00:23:51,879
Speaker 5: open field like inter for me, is the team that

508
00:23:51,920 --> 00:23:54,040
Speaker 5: like has the floor, whereas like you know, Napoli, the

509
00:23:54,040 --> 00:23:56,760
Speaker 5: price isn't there anymore. You go down the list like PSG,

510
00:23:56,840 --> 00:24:02,440
Speaker 5: I think is super flawed. Real Madrid Liverpool don't defend

511
00:24:02,800 --> 00:24:04,840
Speaker 5: and you can, I mean reality and defend. Last year

512
00:24:04,880 --> 00:24:06,360
Speaker 5: they won the Champions League, so like you can ride

513
00:24:06,359 --> 00:24:09,359
Speaker 5: a hot goalie or something. But like they're they're an

514
00:24:09,359 --> 00:24:11,160
Speaker 5: interesting case and I don't think it's a bad draw.

515
00:24:11,560 --> 00:24:13,800
Speaker 5: I think minus one thirty four minus one thirty for

516
00:24:14,000 --> 00:24:16,800
Speaker 5: a first leg money line is too steep. I would

517
00:24:16,800 --> 00:24:20,000
Speaker 5: need like minus one ten to bet them. And I

518
00:24:20,040 --> 00:24:22,080
Speaker 5: don't think there's like a huge like tactical thing where

519
00:24:22,080 --> 00:24:24,720
Speaker 5: they're much better than Porto. I just think they're like

520
00:24:24,760 --> 00:24:27,399
Speaker 5: generally just like a better team and Porto Porto is

521
00:24:27,440 --> 00:24:29,760
Speaker 5: going to sit deep, They're going to force Intoy try

522
00:24:29,760 --> 00:24:32,040
Speaker 5: to break them down. Like this does profile as like

523
00:24:32,040 --> 00:24:36,600
Speaker 5: a lower scoring affair, But I think Interro will get

524
00:24:36,640 --> 00:24:38,840
Speaker 5: through ultimately and then you know, hopefully they get a

525
00:24:38,840 --> 00:24:41,800
Speaker 5: good draw. I mean, they could draw like Milan Spurs

526
00:24:42,640 --> 00:24:44,760
Speaker 5: in the quarterfinals and I'd feel pretty good about that.

527
00:24:45,480 --> 00:24:49,560
Speaker 6: What are your thoughts here, BJ, Yeah, so there's some Porto. Yeah,

528
00:24:49,600 --> 00:24:51,760
Speaker 6: so there's some injury concerns for Porto that have to

529
00:24:51,760 --> 00:24:55,760
Speaker 6: be mentioned. Otavio is going to be out for this leg.

530
00:24:55,800 --> 00:24:57,959
Speaker 6: He will be back for the second leg. He's their

531
00:24:58,040 --> 00:24:59,760
Speaker 6: leader in an expected sist this season, so that's a

532
00:24:59,760 --> 00:25:03,879
Speaker 6: big Vanielsen, who's Tremi striking partner up top in the

533
00:25:03,880 --> 00:25:05,200
Speaker 6: four to four to two, is leading the team in

534
00:25:05,280 --> 00:25:07,960
Speaker 6: xt g P ninety. He's likely going to be out

535
00:25:08,000 --> 00:25:11,040
Speaker 6: for this match. Matteos Yribe, who's their main defensive midfielder

536
00:25:11,080 --> 00:25:13,800
Speaker 6: who's played the most nineties of any outfield player for

537
00:25:13,840 --> 00:25:16,760
Speaker 6: them this season, is also questionable for this leg. So

538
00:25:17,400 --> 00:25:20,639
Speaker 6: there's a lot going against Porto, And like you mentioned, Anthony,

539
00:25:20,640 --> 00:25:22,200
Speaker 6: they're gonna sit defensive in their four to four to

540
00:25:22,200 --> 00:25:23,880
Speaker 6: two like we've seen them do time and time again

541
00:25:24,280 --> 00:25:26,160
Speaker 6: in the Champions League, just trying to get the draw

542
00:25:26,200 --> 00:25:28,119
Speaker 6: and get this thing back to Portugal when they can

543
00:25:28,119 --> 00:25:31,000
Speaker 6: get all of those players back from injury and it's her.

544
00:25:31,280 --> 00:25:32,439
Speaker 6: I mean, they have in a even great form out

545
00:25:32,480 --> 00:25:33,960
Speaker 6: of the World Cup break. I mean they've lost one

546
00:25:34,000 --> 00:25:36,320
Speaker 6: match as a fluke loss to Himpolleye at home, like

547
00:25:36,400 --> 00:25:39,160
Speaker 6: Anthony mentioned they've beaten Napoli, they've beaten AC Milan twice,

548
00:25:39,160 --> 00:25:42,760
Speaker 6: they've beaten at Alanta twice, and most importantly, last six matches,

549
00:25:42,960 --> 00:25:48,199
Speaker 6: we've only conceded three point seven expected goals. So it's

550
00:25:48,240 --> 00:25:52,720
Speaker 6: a really good defense team moves an incredible form playing

551
00:25:52,720 --> 00:25:54,680
Speaker 6: against the team who's gonna set up very defensive without

552
00:25:54,680 --> 00:25:57,320
Speaker 6: two of their main attackers. So I only have two

553
00:25:57,400 --> 00:25:59,639
Speaker 6: point to eight goals projected for this one. Under two

554
00:25:59,680 --> 00:26:02,720
Speaker 6: and a half goals is getting pretty juicy at minus

555
00:26:02,720 --> 00:26:05,080
Speaker 6: one twenty five, so if that gets to minus one fifteen,

556
00:26:05,680 --> 00:26:09,080
Speaker 6: I'll play it, but I'll probably be looking to play

557
00:26:09,119 --> 00:26:11,200
Speaker 6: Porto in the second leg. I Venture wins this one

558
00:26:11,200 --> 00:26:13,880
Speaker 6: and Porto gets all those guys healthy, because you might

559
00:26:13,880 --> 00:26:16,680
Speaker 6: just get in a nice inflated line with Inter So

560
00:26:17,600 --> 00:26:20,280
Speaker 6: under two and a half or anything, or if anything,

561
00:26:20,320 --> 00:26:21,440
Speaker 6: for me, the.

562
00:26:21,440 --> 00:26:24,680
Speaker 3: Other Wednesday match is quite interesting.

563
00:26:25,280 --> 00:26:26,560
Speaker 1: RB Leipzigs is fun.

564
00:26:27,200 --> 00:26:30,000
Speaker 4: Yeah, this is fun, and it got to be more

565
00:26:30,040 --> 00:26:34,679
Speaker 4: fun after what happened this weekend. Leipzigs plus three fifty

566
00:26:34,720 --> 00:26:38,560
Speaker 4: hosting man City minus one thirty four the draws plus

567
00:26:38,600 --> 00:26:41,960
Speaker 4: two ninety to Advanced City minus five point fifty Leipzig

568
00:26:42,720 --> 00:26:44,000
Speaker 4: they are plus three fifty.

569
00:26:44,359 --> 00:26:48,600
Speaker 3: So you guys, I told you that.

570
00:26:48,600 --> 00:26:50,800
Speaker 4: Steve Cooper was just a genius, and we saw another

571
00:26:50,800 --> 00:26:54,760
Speaker 4: Cooper master classes this weekend seeing City draw one one

572
00:26:54,800 --> 00:27:00,159
Speaker 4: against Forced. But that this is kind of why I

573
00:27:00,160 --> 00:27:03,520
Speaker 4: I like the Leipzig future. In all likelihood, they lose

574
00:27:03,560 --> 00:27:08,840
Speaker 4: this tie, they get trounced by City over two legs,

575
00:27:08,880 --> 00:27:13,000
Speaker 4: and that's it. Your one hundred to one ticket gets

576
00:27:13,359 --> 00:27:16,480
Speaker 4: set on fire by what six pm Eastern time on

577
00:27:17,160 --> 00:27:21,080
Speaker 4: five pm Eastern time on Wednesday. But we've just seen City.

578
00:27:21,000 --> 00:27:23,919
Speaker 4: They've just been so wonky this year. They've just had

579
00:27:23,960 --> 00:27:28,879
Speaker 4: these moments of just pure freakishness, and it gets a

580
00:27:28,920 --> 00:27:33,000
Speaker 4: good team. The odds of that happening are much greater

581
00:27:33,080 --> 00:27:36,560
Speaker 4: than they would be against Nottingham Forced or ever.

582
00:27:36,480 --> 00:27:40,000
Speaker 3: Atten at home. The Leipzig team is really good. I

583
00:27:40,040 --> 00:27:43,040
Speaker 3: think I think that I'd rather.

584
00:27:42,920 --> 00:27:46,400
Speaker 4: Bet them long term than just to back them here

585
00:27:46,440 --> 00:27:48,760
Speaker 4: on the money line. So I'm betting them to win

586
00:27:48,800 --> 00:27:50,600
Speaker 4: the tournament. That's kind of going to stand as my

587
00:27:50,600 --> 00:27:53,119
Speaker 4: money line bet for this game. But I know you

588
00:27:53,200 --> 00:27:57,840
Speaker 4: two are both on this train with me. BJ yep,

589
00:27:57,920 --> 00:27:58,840
Speaker 4: what are your thoughts here?

590
00:27:59,359 --> 00:28:01,840
Speaker 6: So yes, I love a life stag plus a half.

591
00:28:01,840 --> 00:28:03,960
Speaker 6: I've played them to advance at plus four to forty.

592
00:28:04,160 --> 00:28:06,679
Speaker 6: So these two obviously met in the Champions League last season.

593
00:28:07,760 --> 00:28:10,600
Speaker 6: Only one of the matches actually mattered. The final match

594
00:28:10,800 --> 00:28:12,639
Speaker 6: that was at Leipsig. City had already scaled up the

595
00:28:12,640 --> 00:28:14,879
Speaker 6: group and they played a bunch of reserve guys, so

596
00:28:14,920 --> 00:28:17,160
Speaker 6: it didn't really matter. But the first one was a

597
00:28:17,280 --> 00:28:21,520
Speaker 6: chaotics six' to three win For. City expected goals is

598
00:28:21,560 --> 00:28:23,679
Speaker 6: only two point three to one point. Three AND i

599
00:28:23,720 --> 00:28:26,280
Speaker 6: went back AND i watched the highlights BECAUSE i was, like,

600
00:28:26,320 --> 00:28:28,320
Speaker 6: okay you, know it's been a long. TIME i hadn't

601
00:28:28,480 --> 00:28:30,840
Speaker 6: really seen what happened in that. One first, off you

602
00:28:30,920 --> 00:28:33,240
Speaker 6: have to remember who was MANAGING Rv leipsig at that.

603
00:28:33,240 --> 00:28:36,879
Speaker 6: Point it Was Jesse martin no, comment one of the

604
00:28:36,920 --> 00:28:39,880
Speaker 6: worst defensive managers we've ever, Seen grace The bundesliga in

605
00:28:39,880 --> 00:28:42,400
Speaker 6: The Premier. League, ALSO i went back and looked House

606
00:28:42,440 --> 00:28:45,200
Speaker 6: city scored all their goals in that. Match it was

607
00:28:45,240 --> 00:28:48,440
Speaker 6: off a, corner an own, goal a, penalty A grealish

608
00:28:48,520 --> 00:28:51,680
Speaker 6: low quality, shot a Con salo streamer from twenty seven

609
00:28:51,760 --> 00:28:54,640
Speaker 6: yards and A Gabrielle hayes who's deflection. Goal it was

610
00:28:54,680 --> 00:28:57,120
Speaker 6: a lot of flukiness From city to get the ball

611
00:28:57,160 --> 00:28:59,000
Speaker 6: in the back of the. Net this is going to

612
00:28:59,000 --> 00:29:03,480
Speaker 6: be a, much much, different much BETTER Rb leipzig defense

613
00:29:03,560 --> 00:29:06,560
Speaker 6: that is only allowing one expected goal per ninety minutes

614
00:29:07,080 --> 00:29:09,479
Speaker 6: Under Marco, rosa WHICH i think we got to Give

615
00:29:09,480 --> 00:29:12,000
Speaker 6: anthony credit BECAUSE i Think Marco rosa might be the

616
00:29:12,040 --> 00:29:15,760
Speaker 6: best manager in the. WORLD i went and looked Since.

617
00:29:15,800 --> 00:29:19,480
Speaker 6: September let me get to the point, Here, anthony Since september,

618
00:29:19,520 --> 00:29:22,320
Speaker 6: eighth when he was hired AT Rbi, leipzig they have

619
00:29:22,360 --> 00:29:25,920
Speaker 6: a plus one point two to three non penalty expected

620
00:29:25,920 --> 00:29:29,880
Speaker 6: goal differential per ninety minutes in The. Bundesliga Only barcelona

621
00:29:30,120 --> 00:29:32,800
Speaker 6: has a better mark over that time span THAN Arbi,

622
00:29:32,880 --> 00:29:34,760
Speaker 6: leipzig and they have a style of play that can

623
00:29:34,800 --> 00:29:37,680
Speaker 6: Give city so so many. PROBLEMS i, mean you saw

624
00:29:37,680 --> 00:29:39,240
Speaker 6: it out of The World cup break when they Played Byron.

625
00:29:39,320 --> 00:29:42,200
Speaker 6: Munich it was a perfect. Example byron controlled fifty eight percent,

626
00:29:42,280 --> 00:29:46,920
Speaker 6: possession But leipzig held them to seven shots and other

627
00:29:46,960 --> 00:29:48,680
Speaker 6: than the goal that went in from chew Of mote

628
00:29:48,760 --> 00:29:51,320
Speaker 6: inside the six yard, bucks every other shot That Byron

629
00:29:51,400 --> 00:29:54,600
Speaker 6: munich had had next year rating under point. One so

630
00:29:55,320 --> 00:29:57,640
Speaker 6: we have AN Rb leipsig offense that is Under rosa

631
00:29:57,680 --> 00:29:59,920
Speaker 6: has created thirty eight point six expected goals in his

632
00:30:00,040 --> 00:30:03,360
Speaker 6: twenty one matches in. Charge and they've been out with

633
00:30:03,560 --> 00:30:06,440
Speaker 6: been Without christopher And kunku since before The World cup.

634
00:30:06,520 --> 00:30:07,480
Speaker 1: Break he came back from.

635
00:30:07,400 --> 00:30:11,440
Speaker 6: Injury Against wolfsburg this past, weekend so their offense is

636
00:30:11,440 --> 00:30:12,200
Speaker 6: only going to get.

637
00:30:12,200 --> 00:30:13,640
Speaker 1: Better and can we.

638
00:30:13,560 --> 00:30:15,880
Speaker 6: Talk about the fixture pile up For city right, now

639
00:30:15,920 --> 00:30:17,600
Speaker 6: because this is going to be their fourth match in

640
00:30:17,640 --> 00:30:20,280
Speaker 6: ten days and their third straight match on the road

641
00:30:20,360 --> 00:30:22,840
Speaker 6: in less than a. Week that's a lot of travel

642
00:30:22,880 --> 00:30:25,760
Speaker 6: And pep has not rotated at, all maybe one or

643
00:30:25,760 --> 00:30:28,640
Speaker 6: two throughout those, matches but it's going to have been the

644
00:30:28,680 --> 00:30:32,080
Speaker 6: same starting eleven pretty, much so the legs have to

645
00:30:32,120 --> 00:30:34,520
Speaker 6: be tired For city at this. Point so this is

646
00:30:34,560 --> 00:30:37,840
Speaker 6: a wonderful spot For, leipzig who obviously had a great

647
00:30:37,880 --> 00:30:40,080
Speaker 6: showing Against wolfsburg this past. Weekend SO i love them

648
00:30:40,120 --> 00:30:42,760
Speaker 6: plus a half plus one o five to advance at

649
00:30:42,760 --> 00:30:45,440
Speaker 6: plus four to, FORTY i think that number is wonderful

650
00:30:45,440 --> 00:30:48,080
Speaker 6: because if you Love leipzig in this first, leg you

651
00:30:48,120 --> 00:30:50,040
Speaker 6: can play back On city and have a nice hedge

652
00:30:50,040 --> 00:30:52,640
Speaker 6: opportunity in the second leg as well to. Advance so

653
00:30:53,520 --> 00:30:55,680
Speaker 6: And obviously we've already bet, them you, know at one

654
00:30:55,760 --> 00:30:57,800
Speaker 6: hundred to one to win The Champions. League so, yes

655
00:30:58,160 --> 00:31:01,440
Speaker 6: tremendous spot here For leipzig can Give city all sorts of.

656
00:31:01,440 --> 00:31:02,640
Speaker 2: Problems.

657
00:31:04,240 --> 00:31:09,240
Speaker 5: Yeah, Look i've been saying this About rosa for half four,

658
00:31:09,320 --> 00:31:12,760
Speaker 5: years three, years and you know it wasn't a great

659
00:31:12,760 --> 00:31:15,440
Speaker 5: fit At, dortmund but it's clearly working here At. Leipzig

660
00:31:15,680 --> 00:31:18,160
Speaker 5: they're the best defense in The bundesliga for. Me and

661
00:31:18,920 --> 00:31:20,960
Speaker 5: they allow the fewer shots for, ninety they allow the

662
00:31:20,960 --> 00:31:23,720
Speaker 5: fewer shots on target for. Ninety they allow the average

663
00:31:23,760 --> 00:31:27,000
Speaker 5: longest shot, distance which something you talked, about and if

664
00:31:27,000 --> 00:31:29,160
Speaker 5: we talked About city this, year like their average shot

665
00:31:29,240 --> 00:31:31,040
Speaker 5: distance is further from the goal than it was last,

666
00:31:31,080 --> 00:31:32,440
Speaker 5: Season they're getting fewer.

667
00:31:32,480 --> 00:31:35,320
Speaker 2: Shots it all has the recipe for.

668
00:31:35,840 --> 00:31:38,840
Speaker 5: An Overinflated city on the road in the first leg

669
00:31:39,240 --> 00:31:41,440
Speaker 5: in a matchup they don't necessarily need to.

670
00:31:41,480 --> 00:31:43,600
Speaker 2: Win you, KNOW i still think that. Matters you, know if.

671
00:31:43,480 --> 00:31:45,720
Speaker 5: It's the eighty fifth eightieth, minute eighty fifth, minute you're

672
00:31:45,760 --> 00:31:48,880
Speaker 5: not going to See city growing numbers. Forward you, know

673
00:31:48,920 --> 00:31:51,920
Speaker 5: when it draws a fine result for, THEM i think

674
00:31:51,960 --> 00:31:54,440
Speaker 5: that does matter because so many times in like a league,

675
00:31:54,480 --> 00:31:57,640
Speaker 5: match you'll see a, favorite you, know risk to try

676
00:31:57,680 --> 00:31:59,160
Speaker 5: to get the three points instead of you, know at

677
00:31:59,200 --> 00:32:00,920
Speaker 5: the risk of losing. One in this case With, pep

678
00:32:01,360 --> 00:32:04,440
Speaker 5: we've seen it time and time and time. Again pep

679
00:32:05,040 --> 00:32:07,880
Speaker 5: went in doubt in These Champions league, ties goes to,

680
00:32:08,080 --> 00:32:11,440
Speaker 5: conservative not too, aggressive and it hurts, Them it costs,

681
00:32:11,440 --> 00:32:14,440
Speaker 5: them you, know because they're the better team and they're

682
00:32:14,520 --> 00:32:19,080
Speaker 5: they're lowering the. Variants SO i think the matchup is

683
00:32:19,360 --> 00:32:22,200
Speaker 5: fine for For. Leipzig they're comfortable out of, possession they're

684
00:32:22,240 --> 00:32:24,520
Speaker 5: good defending out of. Possession they have really good individual.

685
00:32:24,600 --> 00:32:26,520
Speaker 5: DEFENDERS i, think you, know the main one of the

686
00:32:26,520 --> 00:32:29,720
Speaker 5: main reasons That leipzig has, been you, know as good

687
00:32:29,720 --> 00:32:31,880
Speaker 5: as they've been defensively this year is that the personnel

688
00:32:32,000 --> 00:32:35,880
Speaker 5: is just better than it was last year, too with you,

689
00:32:35,920 --> 00:32:38,800
Speaker 5: know their defense taking steps forward or bomb is, good

690
00:32:40,200 --> 00:32:43,560
Speaker 5: Like gvardiole has been like a breakout star at the center.

691
00:32:43,600 --> 00:32:47,120
Speaker 5: Back so they have the. Pieces and then In kunku

692
00:32:47,160 --> 00:32:50,960
Speaker 5: And werner are like super stars in transition With werner's

693
00:32:50,960 --> 00:32:55,400
Speaker 5: pace and his his passing underrated passing range and In kunku's.

694
00:32:55,440 --> 00:32:58,000
Speaker 5: DRIBBLING i mean that's just like a really capable counter.

695
00:32:58,080 --> 00:33:00,200
Speaker 2: Attack what we've seen.

696
00:33:01,480 --> 00:33:04,280
Speaker 5: Is you're gonna Hit city up the wings with, pace

697
00:33:04,440 --> 00:33:07,320
Speaker 5: And werner loves making that run into that, channel and

698
00:33:07,320 --> 00:33:08,920
Speaker 5: Then kunku with his ability to dribble through.

699
00:33:08,920 --> 00:33:09,880
Speaker 2: Anybody it's gonna be.

700
00:33:09,960 --> 00:33:13,400
Speaker 5: Dangerous SO i Like leipzig at home first, half first

701
00:33:13,480 --> 00:33:14,000
Speaker 5: leg plus a.

702
00:33:14,000 --> 00:33:14,480
Speaker 2: Half love.

703
00:33:14,480 --> 00:33:16,880
Speaker 5: It my favorite bet for the for The Champions league group,

704
00:33:16,880 --> 00:33:20,560
Speaker 5: stage probably have all of the, bets to be, honest.

705
00:33:22,120 --> 00:33:22,880
Speaker 2: The Europa.

706
00:33:23,000 --> 00:33:26,960
Speaker 4: League now we'll Talk united In. Barcelona then you two

707
00:33:27,000 --> 00:33:29,840
Speaker 4: will give out.

708
00:33:29,240 --> 00:33:30,280
Speaker 1: A couple other players that you.

709
00:33:30,480 --> 00:33:36,560
Speaker 4: Like great first leg of this one, too, Two so

710
00:33:36,560 --> 00:33:38,680
Speaker 4: now we head to The theater Of. Dreams united is

711
00:33:38,680 --> 00:33:41,320
Speaker 4: plus one thirty on the three way, Line barcelona's plus

712
00:33:41,320 --> 00:33:43,840
Speaker 4: two twenty and the draw is plus to.

713
00:33:43,880 --> 00:33:47,280
Speaker 3: Ten united just rolled less the.

714
00:33:47,480 --> 00:33:52,840
Speaker 4: City you guys Love, barcelona Love barcelona for quite some. Time,

715
00:33:52,880 --> 00:33:57,480
Speaker 4: honestly you know they they obviously disappointed us In Champions.

716
00:33:57,560 --> 00:34:02,800
Speaker 3: League but if you go back to Base december of last,

717
00:34:02,840 --> 00:34:05,280
Speaker 3: YEAR i would say we were talking about How. Barsa,

718
00:34:05,360 --> 00:34:05,880
Speaker 3: yeah By Loo.

719
00:34:06,040 --> 00:34:10,600
Speaker 4: Barsa but this is basically do you sell How? United

720
00:34:11,680 --> 00:34:16,440
Speaker 4: i'm kind of interested in The catalans, Here, anthony what

721
00:34:16,480 --> 00:34:16,680
Speaker 4: are your?

722
00:34:16,719 --> 00:34:19,879
Speaker 5: Thoughts, Yeah i'm gonna place a bet THAT i don't

723
00:34:19,880 --> 00:34:22,880
Speaker 5: Think i've ever, placed but it's a fun way of

724
00:34:23,719 --> 00:34:26,520
Speaker 5: me truly thinking this is a coin flip. Match i'm

725
00:34:26,520 --> 00:34:29,000
Speaker 5: gonna take both teams to score and this match to

726
00:34:29,040 --> 00:34:31,160
Speaker 5: be a, draw so to go to extra time at

727
00:34:31,160 --> 00:34:34,319
Speaker 5: plus three Ten and the WAY i see, THIS i

728
00:34:34,360 --> 00:34:37,520
Speaker 5: do have a little bit of value On barsa a little,

729
00:34:37,560 --> 00:34:40,520
Speaker 5: bit BUT i think this is SOMETHING i highlighted. Earlier

730
00:34:41,480 --> 00:34:45,120
Speaker 5: we saw the problems That barsa has every time they

731
00:34:45,160 --> 00:34:49,800
Speaker 5: go up and in attack quality Against they've gotten exposed

732
00:34:49,840 --> 00:34:53,200
Speaker 5: defensively and that was very evident with uniteds kind of

733
00:34:53,280 --> 00:34:57,120
Speaker 5: just clogging the defensive, middle winning the ball and breaking,

734
00:34:57,120 --> 00:34:58,640
Speaker 5: immediately which is something they're very good.

735
00:34:58,719 --> 00:35:00,319
Speaker 2: At barcelona is very bad at.

736
00:35:00,360 --> 00:35:02,800
Speaker 5: Defending with their they want the game to be slow

737
00:35:02,880 --> 00:35:05,000
Speaker 5: unit it wants to be, fast and it was a

738
00:35:05,080 --> 00:35:06,920
Speaker 5: very up and down game in that Favored united in

739
00:35:06,920 --> 00:35:11,759
Speaker 5: the first. LEG i, think based on tenhawks, comments this

740
00:35:11,840 --> 00:35:12,400
Speaker 5: in theory.

741
00:35:12,239 --> 00:35:13,960
Speaker 2: Would be a bad spot Because united has A cup

742
00:35:14,000 --> 00:35:14,279
Speaker 2: final On.

743
00:35:14,320 --> 00:35:16,480
Speaker 5: Sunday but based On tenhawks comments to the fans and

744
00:35:16,880 --> 00:35:19,360
Speaker 5: in the post match, today like he's talking about like

745
00:35:19,440 --> 00:35:20,960
Speaker 5: we need to bring It, thursday we need to go

746
00:35:21,000 --> 00:35:23,760
Speaker 5: all out we need to Beat. Barcelona so it seems

747
00:35:23,760 --> 00:35:26,880
Speaker 5: to me that he said squad rotation and spoppy, damned

748
00:35:27,560 --> 00:35:29,319
Speaker 5: we're putting our best guys out there and they've been

749
00:35:29,320 --> 00:35:33,520
Speaker 5: playing really. Well sancho is the player for, me that's the,

750
00:35:33,600 --> 00:35:36,799
Speaker 5: key that's the that's the ceiling razor For, united because

751
00:35:36,840 --> 00:35:41,480
Speaker 5: right now it's Just Marcus rashfer like he's unreal incredible,

752
00:35:41,560 --> 00:35:45,440
Speaker 5: form but eventually he will cool off and when he,

753
00:35:45,520 --> 00:35:48,960
Speaker 5: does the attacks kind of. Mid but If sancho is

754
00:35:48,960 --> 00:35:52,319
Speaker 5: going to bring back the production From, dortmund you know those.

755
00:35:52,400 --> 00:35:56,680
Speaker 5: Levels now you've got a really, fun, dangerous good team

756
00:35:57,160 --> 00:35:59,400
Speaker 5: that can Rip barsa a part. Here SO i THINK

757
00:36:00,040 --> 00:36:01,279
Speaker 5: i like both teams to, score AND i think this

758
00:36:01,320 --> 00:36:04,000
Speaker 5: is a. Draw WHAT i think will likely happen is

759
00:36:04,000 --> 00:36:06,600
Speaker 5: you're gonna see these two teams somewhat. Similar it'll be

760
00:36:06,600 --> 00:36:09,440
Speaker 5: open to, start BUT i think as the match, progresses

761
00:36:09,440 --> 00:36:12,160
Speaker 5: you're gonna see both teams take fewer and fewer, chances

762
00:36:12,440 --> 00:36:14,880
Speaker 5: to the point where if it is tied, LATE i

763
00:36:14,920 --> 00:36:17,520
Speaker 5: think you're going to see it turn into a little

764
00:36:17,520 --> 00:36:17,759
Speaker 5: bit of a.

765
00:36:17,760 --> 00:36:18,960
Speaker 2: Stalemate and if.

766
00:36:18,800 --> 00:36:21,520
Speaker 5: It's, NOT i really don't trust either defense right now

767
00:36:21,560 --> 00:36:24,400
Speaker 5: to stop, anybody because they haven't been able to, Mean

768
00:36:24,440 --> 00:36:27,560
Speaker 5: barsia was getting every look they wanted from. Crosses united

769
00:36:27,680 --> 00:36:30,120
Speaker 5: was getting in the penalty area with runners at.

770
00:36:30,120 --> 00:36:32,000
Speaker 2: Will So i'm taking both teams to.

771
00:36:31,960 --> 00:36:35,200
Speaker 5: Score, yes and the draw at plus three, TEN i

772
00:36:35,200 --> 00:36:37,680
Speaker 5: think we're gonna get some extra extra free soccer. Here

773
00:36:37,760 --> 00:36:40,319
Speaker 5: no away goal rule, anymore so it's not like at

774
00:36:40,320 --> 00:36:42,920
Speaker 5: one to, one you, Know barsia has to go for.

775
00:36:43,000 --> 00:36:46,959
Speaker 2: It so both teams to score and, draw just like.

776
00:36:46,840 --> 00:36:51,359
Speaker 3: In the First, like, uh, yeah bj what are your?

777
00:36:51,360 --> 00:36:54,120
Speaker 1: Thoughts, YEAH i don't Hate ACTUALLY i was just.

778
00:36:54,120 --> 00:36:55,759
Speaker 6: LOOKING i don't really hate to look at the over

779
00:36:55,840 --> 00:36:57,920
Speaker 6: which is just two and a half minus one ten right.

780
00:36:57,960 --> 00:37:00,040
Speaker 1: NOW i, mean you guys In.

781
00:37:00,080 --> 00:37:03,520
Speaker 6: Alahanam united was able to do whatever they wanted Against.

782
00:37:03,520 --> 00:37:06,360
Speaker 6: BARCELONA i was really disappointed In barcelona's. Counterpressing that's what

783
00:37:06,480 --> 00:37:08,960
Speaker 6: Makes barcelona so. Good it's when they lose the ball

784
00:37:08,960 --> 00:37:10,680
Speaker 6: in the final. Third they're able to counterpress a lot

785
00:37:10,680 --> 00:37:13,520
Speaker 6: of these lower half sides and they go the ball

786
00:37:13,600 --> 00:37:18,640
Speaker 6: back and going. Forward united only had three ten plus pass,

787
00:37:18,680 --> 00:37:23,200
Speaker 6: sequences but they were able to get fifteen penalty box

788
00:37:23,200 --> 00:37:24,320
Speaker 6: shots Against.

789
00:37:24,320 --> 00:37:25,200
Speaker 1: Barcelona like it.

790
00:37:25,320 --> 00:37:29,520
Speaker 6: WAS i was, like you, know, obviously somebody who hates Match,

791
00:37:29,640 --> 00:37:31,600
Speaker 6: united who's came on this podcast many many times and

792
00:37:31,640 --> 00:37:33,839
Speaker 6: say they. Suck oh my, gosh they're. TERRIBLE i don't

793
00:37:33,840 --> 00:37:36,320
Speaker 6: think they're really that terrible. ANYMORE i think THEY'RE i

794
00:37:36,360 --> 00:37:39,040
Speaker 6: think they're they're, very very. Dangerous and you saw it

795
00:37:39,040 --> 00:37:41,640
Speaker 6: again today Against. LEICESTER i mean they absolutely just pumped.

796
00:37:41,640 --> 00:37:44,840
Speaker 6: Them it's over three expected. Goals it was oh so.

797
00:37:45,760 --> 00:37:47,960
Speaker 6: Again but now we're in a situation we have a

798
00:37:47,960 --> 00:37:50,600
Speaker 6: fixture pile up From manchester and we have a cup

799
00:37:50,600 --> 00:37:55,799
Speaker 6: funnel On. Sunday but For, BARCELONA i, mean now they're

800
00:37:55,840 --> 00:37:58,120
Speaker 6: gonna be Without petrie for an extended period of, time

801
00:37:58,200 --> 00:38:01,279
Speaker 6: so that's another troublesome thing that they have to deal.

802
00:38:01,320 --> 00:38:04,239
Speaker 1: With but, yeah it's it's it's what you've, Seen like

803
00:38:04,280 --> 00:38:05,000
Speaker 1: you hit the only, Head.

804
00:38:05,040 --> 00:38:07,680
Speaker 6: Anthony it's Like barcelona's stuff in competition when they have

805
00:38:07,719 --> 00:38:09,800
Speaker 6: to play teams who can play through pressure and won't

806
00:38:09,800 --> 00:38:13,279
Speaker 6: just succumb to their counter, pressing it's going to be very.

807
00:38:13,280 --> 00:38:15,280
Speaker 6: Difficult now you don't Have, Patrie now you don't Have Sergio,

808
00:38:15,280 --> 00:38:18,759
Speaker 6: bousquets two of your best midfielders THAT i, mean they

809
00:38:18,800 --> 00:38:21,200
Speaker 6: played ball day in the midfield today Against, Cadiz like

810
00:38:21,560 --> 00:38:24,319
Speaker 6: that's more and. MORE i mean he's very very, good

811
00:38:24,680 --> 00:38:27,799
Speaker 6: but he's also a left, back so it's it's very.

812
00:38:27,800 --> 00:38:30,600
Speaker 6: Troublesome SO i do project nine two point ninety seven

813
00:38:30,920 --> 00:38:34,040
Speaker 6: goals for this. ONE i, mean who's to say we

814
00:38:34,040 --> 00:38:36,960
Speaker 6: won't see another chaotic type match like we saw the last.

815
00:38:36,960 --> 00:38:40,839
Speaker 6: Time If united is gonna sit deep and, encounter, like

816
00:38:40,960 --> 00:38:42,320
Speaker 6: how Is barcelona going to stop?

817
00:38:42,360 --> 00:38:43,239
Speaker 1: Them? Right that's the.

818
00:38:43,280 --> 00:38:47,920
Speaker 6: Thing, SO i mean we did have three point two expected,

819
00:38:47,920 --> 00:38:50,040
Speaker 6: goal three point three expected goals created in the previous,

820
00:38:50,040 --> 00:38:53,200
Speaker 6: meeting expected threat over over three combined between the two.

821
00:38:53,200 --> 00:38:54,080
Speaker 1: Teams you don't see that that.

822
00:38:54,160 --> 00:38:56,560
Speaker 6: Often so uh, YEAH i do like over two and

823
00:38:56,680 --> 00:38:59,919
Speaker 6: f goals and minus one. Ten it's way too cheap

824
00:39:00,200 --> 00:39:02,160
Speaker 6: price for given what we saw in that first.

825
00:39:02,200 --> 00:39:06,160
Speaker 5: Leg, Yeah united in a really bad spot put up

826
00:39:06,200 --> 00:39:08,600
Speaker 5: over three expected goals. Today AND i you, know the

827
00:39:08,640 --> 00:39:11,239
Speaker 5: first like fifteen, MINUTES i was, like oh, boy, like you,

828
00:39:11,320 --> 00:39:11,719
Speaker 5: know it looks.

829
00:39:11,800 --> 00:39:12,840
Speaker 2: Terrible they were getting.

830
00:39:12,840 --> 00:39:15,080
Speaker 5: Worked they should have been down a, goal but they

831
00:39:15,160 --> 00:39:17,400
Speaker 5: like flipped the, switch took over the game and it

832
00:39:17,480 --> 00:39:18,840
Speaker 5: was over and over. AGAIN i, MEAN i think a

833
00:39:18,840 --> 00:39:20,480
Speaker 5: lot of it was less, there to be, Honest, LIKE

834
00:39:20,520 --> 00:39:24,680
Speaker 5: i think they were, awful awful defensive. Team but, Yeah

835
00:39:24,800 --> 00:39:27,000
Speaker 5: united has to be given credit for in that, spot

836
00:39:27,320 --> 00:39:30,480
Speaker 5: given The sandwich and the look ahead and all the

837
00:39:30,520 --> 00:39:33,200
Speaker 5: matches they played to put up the over three expected,

838
00:39:33,239 --> 00:39:35,440
Speaker 5: goals like that's a that's a, statement even if it's

839
00:39:35,440 --> 00:39:36,160
Speaker 5: Against lester at.

840
00:39:36,160 --> 00:39:39,080
Speaker 3: Home so credit to The Red.

841
00:39:39,120 --> 00:39:43,280
Speaker 5: Devils they look like a surefire top four, team which

842
00:39:43,520 --> 00:39:44,040
Speaker 5: is crazy to.

843
00:39:44,040 --> 00:39:46,880
Speaker 3: Say but, yeah just like, yours.

844
00:39:46,880 --> 00:39:52,080
Speaker 2: They Can't, yeah they're. Not they. Can't barsa can't possibly

845
00:39:52,120 --> 00:39:53,680
Speaker 2: try the same thing again though that's the only.

846
00:39:53,719 --> 00:39:57,400
Speaker 5: Thing like there will be tactical adjustments From, chobby like

847
00:39:57,440 --> 00:40:00,080
Speaker 5: they can't possibly roll up To Man united and and

848
00:40:00,320 --> 00:40:01,040
Speaker 5: get exposed like that.

849
00:40:01,040 --> 00:40:04,520
Speaker 2: Again they'll give up. Four uh so, yeah we'll.

850
00:40:04,520 --> 00:40:07,640
Speaker 5: See it'll be very interesting, Tactically Like i'm not a,

851
00:40:07,680 --> 00:40:09,319
Speaker 5: Tactician i'm Not. Chobby you will see what he. Does

852
00:40:09,360 --> 00:40:12,480
Speaker 5: but it'll be a fascinating. Tie and, honestly like after

853
00:40:12,480 --> 00:40:14,080
Speaker 5: The Champions league was kind of dull On tuesday And,

854
00:40:14,080 --> 00:40:16,719
Speaker 5: WEDNESDAY i think there were five combined goals in four.

855
00:40:16,760 --> 00:40:20,839
Speaker 2: Matches The Europa league was electric On.

856
00:40:20,880 --> 00:40:30,440
Speaker 4: THURSDAY i mean they could tell you that The Delco chovy.

857
00:40:28,239 --> 00:40:30,160
Speaker 6: These also put up over an expected goal and had

858
00:40:30,160 --> 00:40:32,120
Speaker 6: an expected third of one point five Against.

859
00:40:32,160 --> 00:40:33,040
Speaker 1: Barcelona they are one of the.

860
00:40:33,000 --> 00:40:35,400
Speaker 2: Worst, yeah the defense is. OVERRATED i mean defense is

861
00:40:35,440 --> 00:40:36,040
Speaker 2: not good right.

862
00:40:36,080 --> 00:40:41,439
Speaker 1: Now so they're, good but they're. NOT xg says, yep

863
00:40:41,600 --> 00:40:44,719
Speaker 1: give me the over, all, right real?

864
00:40:44,800 --> 00:40:47,960
Speaker 3: Quick uh B. J anything else you want to talk?

865
00:40:48,000 --> 00:40:48,600
Speaker 3: About Europa.

866
00:40:48,680 --> 00:40:53,040
Speaker 6: League, yeah let's Go Sporting lisbon minus one ten on

867
00:40:53,120 --> 00:40:58,560
Speaker 6: the road Against michieland In. Denmark, Uh Sporting lisbon absolutely pumps.

868
00:40:58,600 --> 00:41:01,719
Speaker 6: Them in the first leg In portugal expected goals was

869
00:41:02,160 --> 00:41:05,440
Speaker 6: two point six to point. Two sporting out shot them

870
00:41:05,480 --> 00:41:08,440
Speaker 6: sixteen to, five held seventy one percent, possession but it's

871
00:41:08,440 --> 00:41:10,480
Speaker 6: a one to one draw heading back To, denmark and

872
00:41:10,560 --> 00:41:12,000
Speaker 6: the disparity and talent.

873
00:41:11,719 --> 00:41:12,919
Speaker 1: Between these two teams is quite.

874
00:41:12,960 --> 00:41:17,560
Speaker 6: Drastic so per transfer market Dot, Com michelin's total squad

875
00:41:17,560 --> 00:41:21,040
Speaker 6: transfer value was thirty four. Million Well sporting after Selling

876
00:41:21,320 --> 00:41:24,120
Speaker 6: Pedro porot To, tottenham is still two hundred and twenty eight.

877
00:41:24,200 --> 00:41:27,040
Speaker 6: Million mitchellan was in The Europa league group With, Lazzio

878
00:41:27,200 --> 00:41:30,480
Speaker 6: Fine art And Strung. Grays the famous everybody finished with

879
00:41:30,520 --> 00:41:33,839
Speaker 6: eight points. Group they finished with a minus two point

880
00:41:33,880 --> 00:41:35,640
Speaker 6: one expected old differential and that was with a five

881
00:41:35,680 --> 00:41:40,400
Speaker 6: to one win Over latzio and they are really really

882
00:41:40,440 --> 00:41:42,200
Speaker 6: bad in The Danish superliga this.

883
00:41:42,280 --> 00:41:43,680
Speaker 1: Season it just returned this.

884
00:41:43,760 --> 00:41:47,239
Speaker 6: Weekend they have a plus zero point three to seven

885
00:41:47,239 --> 00:41:49,759
Speaker 6: inspected gold differential per ninety minutes and they're in ninth

886
00:41:49,800 --> 00:41:52,239
Speaker 6: place right. Now and if any of the Wonder goal

887
00:41:52,320 --> 00:41:56,360
Speaker 6: listeners want to do a little scouting both. Them mitchellan

888
00:41:56,640 --> 00:42:02,320
Speaker 6: And sporting both play On monday. Afternoon mitcheland has a

889
00:42:02,480 --> 00:42:05,399
Speaker 6: very very important match on the road against second Place,

890
00:42:05,480 --> 00:42:07,319
Speaker 6: viborg who is owned by our friends, here a better,

891
00:42:07,320 --> 00:42:12,840
Speaker 6: collective While sporting is Playing, shabase a mid table team

892
00:42:12,960 --> 00:42:15,000
Speaker 6: on the road as. WELL i mean they're also fighting

893
00:42:15,000 --> 00:42:18,960
Speaker 6: for a top three spot In, portugal so you know

894
00:42:19,160 --> 00:42:21,120
Speaker 6: they'll still have to take it a little bit more.

895
00:42:21,160 --> 00:42:24,920
Speaker 6: Seriously BUT i Mean sporting hasn't been that good in

896
00:42:24,960 --> 00:42:27,040
Speaker 6: The Portuguese Premier. League there's still a plus point nine

897
00:42:27,040 --> 00:42:30,400
Speaker 6: expected gold differential per ninety, minutes but Again portugal seventh

898
00:42:30,400 --> 00:42:32,520
Speaker 6: most difficult league In europe by U way for coefficients

899
00:42:32,560 --> 00:42:33,919
Speaker 6: ten marks, seventeenth SO.

900
00:42:35,360 --> 00:42:38,239
Speaker 1: I don't see a path Where mitchellan.

901
00:42:38,040 --> 00:42:39,800
Speaker 6: Is going to be competitive. Again SO i have actually

902
00:42:39,840 --> 00:42:42,000
Speaker 6: A sporting projected at minus two oh, two SO i

903
00:42:42,000 --> 00:42:45,520
Speaker 6: love the value on. Them mis one Ten, Anthony, Yeah.

904
00:42:45,360 --> 00:42:47,600
Speaker 5: I'm gonna go with a uve over in a knockout,

905
00:42:47,640 --> 00:42:51,600
Speaker 5: tournament BUT i actually think that there's past success for

906
00:42:51,640 --> 00:42:52,160
Speaker 5: both attacks.

907
00:42:52,160 --> 00:42:55,600
Speaker 2: Here you've we'll be going on the road.

908
00:42:55,640 --> 00:42:58,960
Speaker 5: Here their defense away from home has been even more.

909
00:42:59,000 --> 00:42:59,640
Speaker 2: Suspect but they.

910
00:42:59,560 --> 00:43:01,120
Speaker 5: Really just don't do a very good job of breaking

911
00:43:01,200 --> 00:43:05,080
Speaker 5: up play and they have the highest pass completion percentage

912
00:43:05,080 --> 00:43:07,319
Speaker 5: allowed in all Of italy and they pretty much just

913
00:43:07,360 --> 00:43:10,439
Speaker 5: pack it in And darye to beat. Them, Now nons

914
00:43:10,480 --> 00:43:13,600
Speaker 5: had major problems Stopping you've in the first. Leg you've

915
00:43:13,600 --> 00:43:15,719
Speaker 5: a pretty much got whatever they wanted the first twenty,

916
00:43:15,760 --> 00:43:17,640
Speaker 5: Minutes you've a took their foot off the gas, pedal

917
00:43:18,239 --> 00:43:21,439
Speaker 5: and then right After non equalized you've went back into

918
00:43:21,480 --> 00:43:23,080
Speaker 5: like we need to score mode and should have had

919
00:43:23,120 --> 00:43:26,480
Speaker 5: a penalty maybe two missed a huge. Chance like they

920
00:43:26,480 --> 00:43:27,880
Speaker 5: were able to kind of get what they, wanted and

921
00:43:27,920 --> 00:43:29,719
Speaker 5: so the FINAL xgi from the first leg was only

922
00:43:29,760 --> 00:43:30,439
Speaker 5: about two point.

923
00:43:30,480 --> 00:43:31,960
Speaker 2: One BUT i actually think.

924
00:43:31,800 --> 00:43:34,839
Speaker 5: It was a little bit misleading when you look at

925
00:43:34,840 --> 00:43:37,920
Speaker 5: some of the other numbers box entries and passing the penalty.

926
00:43:37,920 --> 00:43:40,040
Speaker 5: Area not was able to get the ball into the

927
00:43:40,040 --> 00:43:41,879
Speaker 5: area a decent, amount AND i think at home they'll

928
00:43:41,920 --> 00:43:44,080
Speaker 5: have more. Success So i'm actually gonna bet the over

929
00:43:44,239 --> 00:43:46,479
Speaker 5: two and a. Half it's a pretty plus, number plus

930
00:43:46,480 --> 00:43:48,719
Speaker 5: one twenty. FIVE i like the over two and a.

931
00:43:48,760 --> 00:43:51,560
Speaker 5: HALF i just think that the first leg was misleading

932
00:43:51,600 --> 00:43:54,880
Speaker 5: and that this leg will be more open and back and,

933
00:43:54,920 --> 00:43:57,240
Speaker 5: forth and like you know we've talked, about you've a defensive,

934
00:43:57,239 --> 00:43:59,000
Speaker 5: regression like they're just not as good as their numbers

935
00:43:59,040 --> 00:44:02,920
Speaker 5: suggest non to. Finished they're like a mid Table french,

936
00:44:02,960 --> 00:44:05,759
Speaker 5: defense and they finished with a over one and a.

937
00:44:05,800 --> 00:44:07,719
Speaker 5: Half spectacle is allowed in the group stage of this,

938
00:44:07,760 --> 00:44:10,680
Speaker 5: tournament so it's a bad defense THAT i Think you've

939
00:44:10,800 --> 00:44:13,880
Speaker 5: could take advantage. Of Maybe i'm gonna be reading Four vlavich,

940
00:44:13,920 --> 00:44:15,359
Speaker 5: now so he probably will miss three big.

941
00:44:15,440 --> 00:44:20,120
Speaker 4: Chances all. Right that wraps up this episode A Wonder

942
00:44:20,160 --> 00:44:23,200
Speaker 4: Goal soccer betting podcast from The Action. Network we'll see

943
00:44:23,200 --> 00:44:27,840
Speaker 4: you guys Again thursday morning for Our Premier league, preview

944
00:44:28,239 --> 00:44:30,640
Speaker 4: but until, then best of luck with all your bets

945
00:44:30,640 --> 00:44:35,279
Speaker 4: in The Champions league And Europa. League For Anthony, DUBUNDO B. J,

946
00:44:35,360 --> 00:44:37,440
Speaker 4: Cunningham I'm Michael, Leba.

947
00:44:37,200 --> 00:44:37,640
Speaker 3: So long for.

948
00:44:37,719 --> 00:44:51,560
Speaker 5: Now Action network reminds you please gamble. Responsibly if you

949
00:44:51,800 --> 00:44:54,560
Speaker 5: or someone you care about has a gambling. Problem help

950
00:44:54,640 --> 00:44:57,360
Speaker 5: is available twenty four to seven at one eight Hundred

951
00:44:57,400 --> 00:44:57,880
Speaker 5: gambler