1
00:00:00,200 --> 00:00:02,280
Speaker 1: I have done this a long time. I think you

2
00:00:02,320 --> 00:00:04,880
Speaker 1: guys know that, so it's not like I'm common at

3
00:00:04,880 --> 00:00:08,039
Speaker 1: this from some point of just I don't know, sitting

4
00:00:08,039 --> 00:00:14,320
Speaker 1: in my mother's basement coming up with numbers. Welcome everyone

5
00:00:14,400 --> 00:00:17,640
Speaker 1: to the Monday edition of Fair Territory. It's the middle

6
00:00:17,680 --> 00:00:20,479
Speaker 1: of January, the dead of winter, and yet we have

7
00:00:20,560 --> 00:00:23,239
Speaker 1: a ton to get to today. It's going to include

8
00:00:23,400 --> 00:00:27,000
Speaker 1: Roki Sasaki, the Red Sox Fenway Fest. We're going to

9
00:00:27,080 --> 00:00:30,680
Speaker 1: talk about Santander and Bregman and Alonzo all of that.

10
00:00:31,360 --> 00:00:33,360
Speaker 1: But first I want to start with the story that

11
00:00:33,440 --> 00:00:36,760
Speaker 1: I reported with Andy McCullough of The Athletic this morning,

12
00:00:36,760 --> 00:00:39,400
Speaker 1: and it's the one on Roki Sasaki talking about how

13
00:00:39,400 --> 00:00:42,479
Speaker 1: the Blue Jays, Yes, the Toronto Blue Jays, met with

14
00:00:42,560 --> 00:00:46,920
Speaker 1: Roki Sasaki last week. To this point, the Blue Jays

15
00:00:46,960 --> 00:00:49,720
Speaker 1: had not been considered one of the front runners for

16
00:00:49,760 --> 00:00:53,000
Speaker 1: Sasaki by any stretch of the imagination. They had really

17
00:00:53,040 --> 00:00:56,440
Speaker 1: barely been mentioned. We've talked a ton about the Padres

18
00:00:56,480 --> 00:00:59,720
Speaker 1: and the Dodgers, the Mets, and the Cubs and the Rangers,

19
00:01:00,080 --> 00:01:02,560
Speaker 1: maybe even the Yankees, all of these different teams that

20
00:01:03,040 --> 00:01:06,200
Speaker 1: are going to be involved in the Sasaki sweepstakes. But

21
00:01:06,240 --> 00:01:09,440
Speaker 1: the Jays, well, they didn't seem to be an obvious choice.

22
00:01:09,480 --> 00:01:12,800
Speaker 1: And the reason for that is that what we've heard,

23
00:01:13,080 --> 00:01:16,759
Speaker 1: what has been reported, is that Sasaki values a place

24
00:01:16,840 --> 00:01:19,920
Speaker 1: where he can continue developing as a pitcher. He's only

25
00:01:19,959 --> 00:01:23,120
Speaker 1: twenty three years old. He's not fully mature as a pitcher.

26
00:01:23,840 --> 00:01:26,320
Speaker 1: In the Blue Jays, they have not exactly been a

27
00:01:26,360 --> 00:01:29,840
Speaker 1: pitching development machine. As we note in the story. Their

28
00:01:29,959 --> 00:01:33,399
Speaker 1: last starter, their last homegrown starter to make back to

29
00:01:33,480 --> 00:01:37,280
Speaker 1: back thirty start seasons, was Marcus Stroman back in sixteen

30
00:01:37,280 --> 00:01:40,880
Speaker 1: and seventeen, and he was developed by the previous front office.

31
00:01:41,120 --> 00:01:44,640
Speaker 1: So I'm not sure where Sasaki is coming from here,

32
00:01:44,760 --> 00:01:46,880
Speaker 1: why he is so interested in the Blue Jays, but

33
00:01:46,959 --> 00:01:50,760
Speaker 1: he is, and perhaps it's something where he has spoken

34
00:01:50,760 --> 00:01:53,840
Speaker 1: with Ysay Kakuchi, who had some success in Toronto, even

35
00:01:53,880 --> 00:01:57,240
Speaker 1: more success after getting traded to the Astros, and perhaps

36
00:01:57,320 --> 00:01:59,840
Speaker 1: he is relying on the word of Kakuchi. We don't know,

37
00:02:00,280 --> 00:02:02,160
Speaker 1: and we don't know how this is going to play out.

38
00:02:02,560 --> 00:02:04,720
Speaker 1: Just because he met with the Blue Jays doesn't mean

39
00:02:04,760 --> 00:02:06,840
Speaker 1: he's going to sign with the Blue Jays. You can

40
00:02:06,880 --> 00:02:09,440
Speaker 1: go back a year to the show, Hey Otani sweepstakes,

41
00:02:09,440 --> 00:02:12,160
Speaker 1: and remember how that went down. And the Jays of

42
00:02:12,200 --> 00:02:16,320
Speaker 1: course have been silver medalists for any number of free agents,

43
00:02:16,360 --> 00:02:19,880
Speaker 1: starting with Otani and since then, including Juan Soto. But

44
00:02:20,440 --> 00:02:23,839
Speaker 1: the mere fact that he was in Toronto this late

45
00:02:23,880 --> 00:02:27,960
Speaker 1: in the process, Sasaki, that is telling. It clearly shows

46
00:02:28,040 --> 00:02:30,960
Speaker 1: that the Blue Jays are serious players here and again

47
00:02:31,080 --> 00:02:34,079
Speaker 1: we will see how this all turns out in the end.

48
00:02:34,560 --> 00:02:40,400
Speaker 1: He cannot sign until Wednesday, when the international signing period opens.

49
00:02:40,960 --> 00:02:43,320
Speaker 1: He has not expected to sign Wednesday. It probably will

50
00:02:43,360 --> 00:02:46,240
Speaker 1: be a few days because teams will be scrambling to

51
00:02:46,320 --> 00:02:49,280
Speaker 1: make trades to increase their bonus pools to offer him

52
00:02:49,440 --> 00:02:52,960
Speaker 1: the most money they possibly can. The largest bonus pool

53
00:02:53,000 --> 00:02:56,480
Speaker 1: is something like just over seven million, so teams will

54
00:02:56,480 --> 00:02:59,000
Speaker 1: want to add to that, and teams with lesser pools

55
00:02:59,040 --> 00:03:01,799
Speaker 1: will want to add to their pools. The only trades

56
00:03:01,840 --> 00:03:04,079
Speaker 1: you can make are ones that will get you two

57
00:03:04,120 --> 00:03:07,280
Speaker 1: hundred and fifty thousand dollars increments, So a team would

58
00:03:07,280 --> 00:03:09,280
Speaker 1: have to make a number of trades to get even

59
00:03:09,360 --> 00:03:11,840
Speaker 1: a million or a million five. I don't know if

60
00:03:11,840 --> 00:03:14,440
Speaker 1: that's going to happen, but teams will be scrambling. As

61
00:03:14,480 --> 00:03:18,119
Speaker 1: we said in another story, in the Athletic today about

62
00:03:18,400 --> 00:03:21,280
Speaker 1: trying to make trades to increase the sizes of their

63
00:03:21,320 --> 00:03:25,640
Speaker 1: bonus pools. So that's the latest asasaki quite an interesting development,

64
00:03:25,680 --> 00:03:28,520
Speaker 1: to say the least. When I heard it myself, I

65
00:03:28,639 --> 00:03:31,880
Speaker 1: was quite surprised. But the blue Jays are in. We

66
00:03:31,960 --> 00:03:34,600
Speaker 1: will see if this time they get the gold medal

67
00:03:34,800 --> 00:03:38,480
Speaker 1: instead of the silver. Also in the Al East, also

68
00:03:38,520 --> 00:03:41,800
Speaker 1: this weekend, the Red Sox held Fenway Fest, which was

69
00:03:41,840 --> 00:03:45,360
Speaker 1: an event they held at Fenway Park that replaced a

70
00:03:45,400 --> 00:03:48,880
Speaker 1: winter festival that they used to have out in western Massachusetts.

71
00:03:48,920 --> 00:03:51,760
Speaker 1: They held at Fenway this year and needless to say,

72
00:03:52,400 --> 00:03:54,800
Speaker 1: a lot of the talk was about things the Red

73
00:03:54,840 --> 00:03:58,640
Speaker 1: Sox still might do, as I noted in my column Friday,

74
00:03:58,680 --> 00:04:01,120
Speaker 1: and they've made a number of moves, some good ones, but

75
00:04:01,160 --> 00:04:04,040
Speaker 1: they've yet to spend more than twenty one point zero

76
00:04:04,120 --> 00:04:07,360
Speaker 1: five million on a single transaction. They've yet to commit that.

77
00:04:08,160 --> 00:04:10,600
Speaker 1: So who is still out there? Well we know the names.

78
00:04:10,880 --> 00:04:13,800
Speaker 1: Alex Bregman is still out there. And Alex Korra, the

79
00:04:13,840 --> 00:04:16,680
Speaker 1: Red Sox manager, said over the weekend at the Fenway

80
00:04:16,720 --> 00:04:20,920
Speaker 1: Fest that I always envisioned Alex meaning Bregman as a

81
00:04:20,960 --> 00:04:24,599
Speaker 1: gold glover second baseman. They're going to keep Raphael Devers

82
00:04:24,600 --> 00:04:28,000
Speaker 1: a third or so, Cora says, but the idea would

83
00:04:28,000 --> 00:04:31,279
Speaker 1: be to have Bregman play second. I wrote about this

84
00:04:31,360 --> 00:04:34,400
Speaker 1: on Friday, why the Red Sox should do this. A

85
00:04:34,480 --> 00:04:36,800
Speaker 1: number of fans were like, nah, nah, Bregman's not good

86
00:04:36,920 --> 00:04:40,280
Speaker 1: enough to justify a big contract. I don't know about that.

87
00:04:40,480 --> 00:04:43,680
Speaker 1: I know his ops plus has declined each of the

88
00:04:43,720 --> 00:04:47,200
Speaker 1: last two years, but after May fifteenth last year, actually

89
00:04:47,279 --> 00:04:49,880
Speaker 1: May thirteenth, he was really good. He was the old

90
00:04:49,920 --> 00:04:52,200
Speaker 1: Alex Bregman. Should have noted that in the column. Maybe

91
00:04:52,200 --> 00:04:54,320
Speaker 1: it would have calmed some people down, but he is

92
00:04:54,360 --> 00:04:57,920
Speaker 1: still a really good player, even entering his age thirty

93
00:04:57,920 --> 00:05:01,320
Speaker 1: one season. What I believe is happened here is that

94
00:05:01,360 --> 00:05:03,880
Speaker 1: the Red Sox are simply saying, we don't think he's

95
00:05:03,920 --> 00:05:06,320
Speaker 1: going to Toronto. We don't think Detroit is going to

96
00:05:06,360 --> 00:05:08,560
Speaker 1: sign him. We're going to take our chances that no

97
00:05:08,600 --> 00:05:11,040
Speaker 1: one else will, and we are going to leverage this

98
00:05:11,120 --> 00:05:14,040
Speaker 1: and negotiate as hard as possible. As I said, if

99
00:05:14,080 --> 00:05:16,880
Speaker 1: they do that and they get Reregman, more power to them.

100
00:05:17,000 --> 00:05:21,880
Speaker 1: That's a good strategy. It's a good negotiating tactic. Problem

101
00:05:22,000 --> 00:05:24,160
Speaker 1: is they still might not get Bregman, and we're not

102
00:05:24,240 --> 00:05:27,560
Speaker 1: exactly sure whether the front office wants to commit to Bregman.

103
00:05:28,320 --> 00:05:32,040
Speaker 1: Also at Fenway Fest, Trevor's Story talked about his former

104
00:05:32,080 --> 00:05:36,760
Speaker 1: teammate in Colorado, Noan Arnado, and Story basically said, I'd

105
00:05:36,839 --> 00:05:39,000
Speaker 1: love to have Noe Arnado as my teammate. A guy

106
00:05:39,040 --> 00:05:41,440
Speaker 1: like that, a future Hall of Famer who is interested

107
00:05:41,520 --> 00:05:44,240
Speaker 1: in joining our team. Yeah, that's something we should be

108
00:05:44,279 --> 00:05:47,760
Speaker 1: interested in. Now, Arnado is a more complicated move for

109
00:05:47,880 --> 00:05:50,800
Speaker 1: the Red Sox because he is a third baseman. Now

110
00:05:50,800 --> 00:05:53,200
Speaker 1: he has said or he has indicated, he is willing

111
00:05:53,240 --> 00:05:55,279
Speaker 1: to play first, but the Red Sox also have a

112
00:05:55,279 --> 00:05:59,839
Speaker 1: first basement. Tristan Cassis, would you rather have Arnatto at

113
00:06:00,240 --> 00:06:02,720
Speaker 1: than Ralphaeld Devers? Yes you would. Would you rather have

114
00:06:02,760 --> 00:06:06,080
Speaker 1: Alex Bregman, for that matter, at third than Ralphael Devers?

115
00:06:06,200 --> 00:06:10,000
Speaker 1: Yes you would. The problem is Devers is their franchise player,

116
00:06:10,120 --> 00:06:12,599
Speaker 1: and they do not seem to want to move him,

117
00:06:12,640 --> 00:06:15,600
Speaker 1: at least not yet. Maybe in the end that's all

118
00:06:15,720 --> 00:06:19,760
Speaker 1: talk and they do something either with Bregman or with Arnado,

119
00:06:19,839 --> 00:06:22,640
Speaker 1: where it ends up that Devers becomes more of a

120
00:06:22,720 --> 00:06:26,080
Speaker 1: dh But wow, it's early in his contract extension to

121
00:06:26,120 --> 00:06:29,440
Speaker 1: do that, even though he is not nearly the third

122
00:06:29,480 --> 00:06:33,120
Speaker 1: base defender that Arnado is and even Bregman is. So

123
00:06:33,440 --> 00:06:35,599
Speaker 1: something to watch there with the Red Sox actually a

124
00:06:35,680 --> 00:06:38,560
Speaker 1: number of things to watch. They are not done. They

125
00:06:38,600 --> 00:06:44,279
Speaker 1: cannot be done. They still need right handed thump. Okay. Finally,

126
00:06:44,480 --> 00:06:48,240
Speaker 1: I also reported this was on Saturday, in conjunction with

127
00:06:48,279 --> 00:06:51,600
Speaker 1: Will Salmon of The Athletic, that Anthony Santander, who I

128
00:06:51,680 --> 00:06:56,520
Speaker 1: mentioned earlier, and Jack Flaherty are willing to perhaps consider

129
00:06:56,920 --> 00:06:59,960
Speaker 1: the kinds of deals that Pete a Lonzo's camp offered

130
00:07:00,040 --> 00:07:02,880
Speaker 1: to the Mets last week. And that deal was three

131
00:07:02,960 --> 00:07:07,039
Speaker 1: years high average annual value with opt outs. It's the

132
00:07:07,120 --> 00:07:09,960
Speaker 1: kind of deal that the Boris four struck last year,

133
00:07:10,000 --> 00:07:13,080
Speaker 1: each of them, and it worked in a couple of cases.

134
00:07:13,160 --> 00:07:15,920
Speaker 1: Blake Snell turned it into a bigger contract with the Dodgers,

135
00:07:15,920 --> 00:07:19,400
Speaker 1: Matt Chapman did the same with the Giants. Cody Ballinger

136
00:07:19,400 --> 00:07:22,400
Speaker 1: opted in and then got traded with the Cubs going

137
00:07:22,440 --> 00:07:25,400
Speaker 1: to the Yankees. And there was Jordan Montgomery who was

138
00:07:25,400 --> 00:07:29,000
Speaker 1: a bust all around. Now is this going to happen

139
00:07:29,080 --> 00:07:32,240
Speaker 1: with Floherty or Santander or anyone else for that matter

140
00:07:32,320 --> 00:07:35,720
Speaker 1: of Bregman, I don't know. But when you get to

141
00:07:35,760 --> 00:07:39,640
Speaker 1: this point a month out from spring training, players do

142
00:07:39,720 --> 00:07:42,040
Speaker 1: start to maybe look at different things, or look at

143
00:07:42,040 --> 00:07:45,800
Speaker 1: their situations differently than they did before. When they had

144
00:07:45,880 --> 00:07:49,720
Speaker 1: visions of maybe six to eight year contracts. Well, maybe

145
00:07:49,720 --> 00:07:52,320
Speaker 1: they were delusions of grandeur and maybe they'd have to

146
00:07:52,520 --> 00:07:56,320
Speaker 1: get more realistic and start thinking about shorter term deals

147
00:07:56,320 --> 00:07:59,160
Speaker 1: that will still pay them a ton of money. That

148
00:07:59,400 --> 00:08:02,680
Speaker 1: ultimately is where it could end up with Alonso. Might

149
00:08:02,720 --> 00:08:05,880
Speaker 1: it happen that way with Flerty too, Sure? But as

150
00:08:05,880 --> 00:08:07,800
Speaker 1: I noted in the story, the problem with that for

151
00:08:07,880 --> 00:08:11,600
Speaker 1: Floherty is that right now he is not subject to

152
00:08:11,680 --> 00:08:14,800
Speaker 1: draft pick compensation. He was not eligible for a qualifying

153
00:08:14,840 --> 00:08:17,480
Speaker 1: offer because he got traded in the middle of the season.

154
00:08:18,040 --> 00:08:20,880
Speaker 1: If he opted out after one year under a new deal,

155
00:08:21,280 --> 00:08:23,600
Speaker 1: he would be subject to a qualifying offer, and that

156
00:08:23,760 --> 00:08:27,200
Speaker 1: always is a drag on a player's free agency. So

157
00:08:27,760 --> 00:08:30,480
Speaker 1: these are things to watch. I don't know that Santandera

158
00:08:30,600 --> 00:08:32,400
Speaker 1: is going to settle for a shorter deal. He's a

159
00:08:32,400 --> 00:08:35,040
Speaker 1: guy that's been linked to the Jay's all off season,

160
00:08:35,400 --> 00:08:37,959
Speaker 1: and I would imagine he wants to do as well

161
00:08:38,000 --> 00:08:40,560
Speaker 1: as he possibly can, Like Flowerty, like all the others.

162
00:08:40,920 --> 00:08:44,280
Speaker 1: Free agency is their shot. But if they have to pivot,

163
00:08:44,520 --> 00:08:46,920
Speaker 1: they will pivot. We'll be back after a quick word

164
00:08:47,000 --> 00:08:48,760
Speaker 1: from our friends at foul Territory.

165
00:08:48,920 --> 00:08:52,360
Speaker 2: Figuring out dinner every night with variety is not easy

166
00:08:52,360 --> 00:08:55,280
Speaker 2: when you're running around lad America's number one meal kid,

167
00:08:55,360 --> 00:08:56,760
Speaker 2: Hello Fresh help you out.

168
00:08:56,800 --> 00:08:59,680
Speaker 3: Hello Fresh is over fifty recipes to choose from each week,

169
00:09:00,080 --> 00:09:03,040
Speaker 3: reportion the ingredients, and then ship them right to your doorstep.

170
00:09:03,080 --> 00:09:06,360
Speaker 2: If you're looking to fit a specific lifestyle, HelloFresh features

171
00:09:06,360 --> 00:09:08,959
Speaker 2: preferences like fit and wholesome, quick and easy, or a

172
00:09:09,040 --> 00:09:10,480
Speaker 2: vegetarian option for you too.

173
00:09:10,559 --> 00:09:13,960
Speaker 3: Hello Fresh helps you eat healthier and stress less about

174
00:09:14,160 --> 00:09:17,439
Speaker 3: how you're getting the ingredients and ideas for that perfect

175
00:09:17,440 --> 00:09:18,280
Speaker 3: home cooked meal.

176
00:09:18,400 --> 00:09:20,640
Speaker 2: In many parts of the country, it's cold out, so

177
00:09:20,679 --> 00:09:22,880
Speaker 2: skip the hassle and snuggle up next to your phone

178
00:09:22,960 --> 00:09:25,560
Speaker 2: or your computer and pick out your favorite recipes. Then

179
00:09:25,640 --> 00:09:28,680
Speaker 2: let Hello Fresh handle the planning, the shopping, and most

180
00:09:28,679 --> 00:09:31,000
Speaker 2: of the prep. Get up to ten free meals and

181
00:09:31,040 --> 00:09:33,719
Speaker 2: a free high protein item for life at HelloFresh dot

182
00:09:33,760 --> 00:09:37,920
Speaker 2: com slash ft ten FM one item per box with

183
00:09:38,000 --> 00:09:40,959
Speaker 2: active subscription free meals applied to discount on first Box

184
00:09:41,000 --> 00:09:43,800
Speaker 2: new subscribers only varies by plan. That's up to ten

185
00:09:43,960 --> 00:09:46,680
Speaker 2: free Hello fresh meals. Just go to HelloFresh dot com

186
00:09:46,720 --> 00:09:52,520
Speaker 2: slash ft one zero FM. Well, well, well.

187
00:09:54,720 --> 00:09:56,480
Speaker 1: Time out for the Inside Dish, the part of the

188
00:09:56,480 --> 00:09:58,960
Speaker 1: show where I talk about something I've written, perhaps a

189
00:09:59,000 --> 00:10:02,520
Speaker 1: trend in the game, perhaps something else entirely. But this

190
00:10:02,600 --> 00:10:04,560
Speaker 1: week I do want to talk about something I wrote

191
00:10:04,600 --> 00:10:07,959
Speaker 1: in conjunction with Will Salmon on Saturday, part of our

192
00:10:08,000 --> 00:10:12,000
Speaker 1: Notes column in which we predicted Pete Alonzo's next contract

193
00:10:12,080 --> 00:10:15,200
Speaker 1: with the Mets if indeed he is willing to take

194
00:10:15,320 --> 00:10:18,719
Speaker 1: a three year higher AAV offer with opt outs, and

195
00:10:18,760 --> 00:10:21,440
Speaker 1: the number we came up with was three years ninety

196
00:10:21,480 --> 00:10:25,559
Speaker 1: three point three million, and that would include deferrals. Now,

197
00:10:26,679 --> 00:10:29,400
Speaker 1: as has often happened in the past, when I write

198
00:10:29,400 --> 00:10:33,559
Speaker 1: something like this, readers shoot back either A can you're

199
00:10:33,600 --> 00:10:36,000
Speaker 1: full of it? Be can you're getting manipulated by an

200
00:10:36,040 --> 00:10:38,880
Speaker 1: agent I always love that one. Or see he's not

201
00:10:39,000 --> 00:10:41,480
Speaker 1: worth that much money, it's not going to happen. Well,

202
00:10:41,520 --> 00:10:44,959
Speaker 1: everyone's entitled to their opinion, including myself, of course, and

203
00:10:45,240 --> 00:10:48,160
Speaker 1: I just want to point out that in two other

204
00:10:48,520 --> 00:10:53,320
Speaker 1: recent examples where I made predictions. They ultimately ended up

205
00:10:53,360 --> 00:10:55,440
Speaker 1: looking pretty good. Now, I'm not saying this one's going

206
00:10:55,480 --> 00:10:57,440
Speaker 1: to be accurate, but I'll explain it in a minute.

207
00:10:57,480 --> 00:10:59,640
Speaker 1: But I want to show you some things first. First,

208
00:11:00,040 --> 00:11:03,160
Speaker 1: sho Hey Otani, this is a column I wrote right

209
00:11:03,240 --> 00:11:06,400
Speaker 1: after it was learned that he had a UCL issue

210
00:11:06,400 --> 00:11:08,880
Speaker 1: and would require surgery, and I wrote, he's worth five

211
00:11:08,960 --> 00:11:11,920
Speaker 1: hundred million in free agency, even if he's only a hitter.

212
00:11:12,559 --> 00:11:15,560
Speaker 1: The reaction to that was vehement. It was along the

213
00:11:15,600 --> 00:11:18,400
Speaker 1: lines of what I just said, mostly, Ken, you're full

214
00:11:18,440 --> 00:11:21,800
Speaker 1: of it. I believe Otani got more than five hundred million.

215
00:11:21,840 --> 00:11:24,000
Speaker 1: He got seven hundred and yes a lot of it

216
00:11:24,080 --> 00:11:27,320
Speaker 1: was deferred, but the number was seven hundred and then

217
00:11:28,240 --> 00:11:32,839
Speaker 1: Juan Soto at one point on foul territory, I predicted

218
00:11:33,000 --> 00:11:35,880
Speaker 1: that he would get more in present day value than

219
00:11:35,920 --> 00:11:39,280
Speaker 1: Shohei Otani did. And let's take a listen to the

220
00:11:39,320 --> 00:11:42,800
Speaker 1: reaction from my good friend aj Prazinski.

221
00:11:43,640 --> 00:11:45,360
Speaker 3: But should you write that he's going to get more

222
00:11:45,400 --> 00:11:47,640
Speaker 3: money than Otani, because if he is, we might need

223
00:11:47,640 --> 00:11:49,440
Speaker 3: to cut you off from whatever it is that you

224
00:11:49,520 --> 00:11:50,439
Speaker 3: are talking about.

225
00:11:50,520 --> 00:11:54,520
Speaker 1: Ken, I believe he's going to get more money than Otani. Now,

226
00:11:54,559 --> 00:11:57,360
Speaker 1: not more than seven hundred. I believe he's going to

227
00:11:57,360 --> 00:12:00,200
Speaker 1: beat his present day value, which was for sixty, right,

228
00:12:00,400 --> 00:12:03,520
Speaker 1: Yotani deal with the deferrals factored in present day value

229
00:12:03,600 --> 00:12:06,319
Speaker 1: four sixty? Do I believe Wan Soda will get more

230
00:12:06,360 --> 00:12:08,320
Speaker 1: than that? Aj? I will bet you right now that

231
00:12:08,400 --> 00:12:11,840
Speaker 1: he gets more than that. Actually I was wrong. Soto

232
00:12:12,120 --> 00:12:15,760
Speaker 1: got more than Otani with the total value, and of

233
00:12:15,800 --> 00:12:17,920
Speaker 1: course he got more in the present day value since

234
00:12:18,000 --> 00:12:22,160
Speaker 1: none of his contract was deferred. Remember Wan Soto fifteen years,

235
00:12:22,320 --> 00:12:24,959
Speaker 1: seven hundred and sixty five million. Have I received an

236
00:12:24,960 --> 00:12:30,840
Speaker 1: apology from aj Prasinski. Have I received even an acknowledgment that, wow, Ken,

237
00:12:31,040 --> 00:12:33,840
Speaker 1: we didn't need to cut you off because you were right? No,

238
00:12:34,160 --> 00:12:36,120
Speaker 1: of course I didn't hear any of that, Nor do

239
00:12:36,240 --> 00:12:38,640
Speaker 1: I ever hear from the commenters and the people on

240
00:12:38,679 --> 00:12:41,160
Speaker 1: Twitter or x whatever you want to call it, who

241
00:12:41,200 --> 00:12:44,200
Speaker 1: tell me that I should go I don't know Pound

242
00:12:44,320 --> 00:12:46,720
Speaker 1: Rock somewhere. That's all good, that's all fine, But let

243
00:12:46,800 --> 00:12:51,160
Speaker 1: me explain the Alonso scenario. And yes, I'm not sure

244
00:12:51,160 --> 00:12:53,400
Speaker 1: this is correct. Who knows what's going to happen here,

245
00:12:53,440 --> 00:12:56,600
Speaker 1: But I'm basing what we wrote on a couple of

246
00:12:56,600 --> 00:13:00,400
Speaker 1: things Alonso is a first baseman. We all know that

247
00:13:00,480 --> 00:13:02,800
Speaker 1: he's thirty years old. We all know that, and we

248
00:13:02,880 --> 00:13:07,040
Speaker 1: all know that the highest average annual value for a

249
00:13:07,080 --> 00:13:10,840
Speaker 1: first baseman in a multi year deal is Miguel Cabrera

250
00:13:11,160 --> 00:13:14,520
Speaker 1: at thirty one million. That's the number, thirty one million.

251
00:13:14,559 --> 00:13:17,680
Speaker 1: That was the extension that Cabrera signed. I believe it

252
00:13:17,720 --> 00:13:21,240
Speaker 1: was in twenty fourteen. He kicked in in sixteen. It

253
00:13:21,400 --> 00:13:24,400
Speaker 1: covered his ages thirty three to forty seasons. Things were

254
00:13:24,400 --> 00:13:26,760
Speaker 1: a little bit different only I don't know eight years

255
00:13:26,760 --> 00:13:30,280
Speaker 1: ten years ago. Teams looked at things differently, but they

256
00:13:30,320 --> 00:13:33,439
Speaker 1: gave the Tigers did They gave Cabrera that money, And

257
00:13:33,520 --> 00:13:36,520
Speaker 1: of course that stands as the record for a first

258
00:13:36,520 --> 00:13:40,319
Speaker 1: baseman on a multi year deal. So here is Alonso.

259
00:13:40,440 --> 00:13:43,440
Speaker 1: And why am I saying thirty one point one million

260
00:13:43,679 --> 00:13:48,080
Speaker 1: on an AAV Because generally speaking, agents and not just

261
00:13:48,120 --> 00:13:51,880
Speaker 1: Scott Boris, they want to set standards in free agency

262
00:13:52,120 --> 00:13:53,920
Speaker 1: and I'm going to show you some examples. I call

263
00:13:54,000 --> 00:13:58,040
Speaker 1: this the AAV accelerator, and it's not really an accelerator.

264
00:13:58,080 --> 00:14:00,360
Speaker 1: It's just a little bit that these guys get a

265
00:14:00,400 --> 00:14:03,360
Speaker 1: little bit more than the previous guy. Bryce Harper in

266
00:14:03,440 --> 00:14:06,520
Speaker 1: his deal, he wanted to beat John Carlos Stanton, Fernando

267
00:14:06,880 --> 00:14:10,720
Speaker 1: Tatist Junior was thirty four million, Francisco Lindor came in

268
00:14:10,760 --> 00:14:14,120
Speaker 1: at thirty four point one. Anthony Rendon was at thirty

269
00:14:14,160 --> 00:14:17,480
Speaker 1: five million. Carlos Correa beat him for the highest salary

270
00:14:17,520 --> 00:14:20,760
Speaker 1: for an infielder at thirty five point one. Mauer was

271
00:14:20,800 --> 00:14:23,600
Speaker 1: a twenty three j TiO Remutto came in at twenty

272
00:14:23,640 --> 00:14:26,440
Speaker 1: three point one for the highest AAV by a catcher.

273
00:14:26,480 --> 00:14:29,720
Speaker 1: And now, as I mentioned Miguel Cabrera at thirty one million,

274
00:14:30,480 --> 00:14:34,600
Speaker 1: what will Pete Alonzo get in total value? Now? As

275
00:14:34,640 --> 00:14:38,360
Speaker 1: I wrote, as will and I wrote, thirty one point

276
00:14:38,360 --> 00:14:40,920
Speaker 1: one million is the number we're saying in total value,

277
00:14:40,960 --> 00:14:43,960
Speaker 1: but deferrals would bring that number down. And I do

278
00:14:44,040 --> 00:14:46,720
Speaker 1: expect that the Mets will want to include deferrals in

279
00:14:46,760 --> 00:14:49,320
Speaker 1: this deal to lower the luxury tax number. That's the

280
00:14:49,360 --> 00:14:54,200
Speaker 1: whole idea behind deferrals. And I would expect that Alonso

281
00:14:54,360 --> 00:14:56,920
Speaker 1: and his agent, Scott Bores, would be willing to accept

282
00:14:56,920 --> 00:14:59,040
Speaker 1: such a thing because they're going to get the bigger

283
00:14:59,120 --> 00:15:03,360
Speaker 1: number in the total value. That's what generally speaking, players

284
00:15:03,360 --> 00:15:06,440
Speaker 1: and agents shoot for. It. Now, you might say, well,

285
00:15:06,480 --> 00:15:09,720
Speaker 1: he's not worth that, but to the Mets, he might

286
00:15:09,760 --> 00:15:11,480
Speaker 1: be worth that. And if you get him on the

287
00:15:11,560 --> 00:15:14,120
Speaker 1: right kind of deal and you give him the opt outs,

288
00:15:14,680 --> 00:15:16,800
Speaker 1: you might just say, if your owner, Steve Cohen, listen,

289
00:15:16,880 --> 00:15:20,080
Speaker 1: we need another bat to go with Soto. There really

290
00:15:20,120 --> 00:15:22,800
Speaker 1: is no one left that fits us as well as Alonso.

291
00:15:23,400 --> 00:15:26,160
Speaker 1: They could get Bregman and Mufientos to first, but I

292
00:15:26,160 --> 00:15:28,120
Speaker 1: don't know that they want to do that. They could

293
00:15:28,160 --> 00:15:30,920
Speaker 1: also get Santander, but that would require some shuffling in

294
00:15:30,960 --> 00:15:32,840
Speaker 1: the outfield. I don't know that they want to do that.

295
00:15:32,880 --> 00:15:36,000
Speaker 1: They've already signed Juan Soto for goodness sake. So Alonso

296
00:15:36,120 --> 00:15:38,960
Speaker 1: still seems to be the logical guy. And above all,

297
00:15:39,440 --> 00:15:41,880
Speaker 1: he is proven in New York. He's done it there.

298
00:15:41,920 --> 00:15:45,320
Speaker 1: He's accomplished things in New York, big things. He's a

299
00:15:45,360 --> 00:15:48,920
Speaker 1: homegrown guy. So I don't know that ultimately the number

300
00:15:48,920 --> 00:15:51,880
Speaker 1: will be ninety three point three over three with deferrals

301
00:15:51,880 --> 00:15:55,080
Speaker 1: and opt outs. But there is a reason why we

302
00:15:55,280 --> 00:15:58,160
Speaker 1: predicted the way we did, and we'll see how it

303
00:15:58,200 --> 00:16:01,080
Speaker 1: turns out. Again, I gave it the two examples where

304
00:16:01,080 --> 00:16:03,880
Speaker 1: I was right. I'm not always right. I don't pretend

305
00:16:03,920 --> 00:16:06,240
Speaker 1: to be always right. When you do this job and

306
00:16:06,240 --> 00:16:08,920
Speaker 1: you write things like that, or you write any opinions

307
00:16:08,920 --> 00:16:11,640
Speaker 1: at all, you're not always right. That's the nature of it.

308
00:16:11,640 --> 00:16:13,800
Speaker 1: It's a humbling game for the players. It's a humbling

309
00:16:13,800 --> 00:16:16,480
Speaker 1: game for the executives, and yes, it's a humbling game

310
00:16:16,520 --> 00:16:18,680
Speaker 1: for the writers. But I am here to tell you

311
00:16:19,400 --> 00:16:21,480
Speaker 1: I have done this a long time. I think you

312
00:16:21,520 --> 00:16:24,720
Speaker 1: guys know that, longer than many people who are ripping

313
00:16:24,760 --> 00:16:27,560
Speaker 1: me have been alive. So it's not like I'm common

314
00:16:27,600 --> 00:16:30,520
Speaker 1: at this from some point of just I don't know,

315
00:16:30,600 --> 00:16:33,240
Speaker 1: sitting in my mother's basement coming up with numbers. No,

316
00:16:33,520 --> 00:16:35,560
Speaker 1: there is a reason for it, and we'll see where

317
00:16:35,600 --> 00:16:38,800
Speaker 1: the Alonzo thing goes. Time now for grilling Ken, Let's

318
00:16:38,800 --> 00:16:42,080
Speaker 1: get to your questions. The first question comes from Richard Proctor,

319
00:16:42,120 --> 00:16:44,640
Speaker 1: who asks, how do you think the writers will view

320
00:16:44,800 --> 00:16:47,120
Speaker 1: this generation of pictures when it comes to Hall of

321
00:16:47,120 --> 00:16:51,920
Speaker 1: Fame consideration? Seems as though the traditional milestones are unobtainable

322
00:16:52,240 --> 00:16:54,840
Speaker 1: with how pictures are used in the modern game. Richard,

323
00:16:54,880 --> 00:16:57,720
Speaker 1: You're absolutely right. And when you look at some of

324
00:16:57,720 --> 00:17:01,720
Speaker 1: the names on this year's bout and Andy pettitt I

325
00:17:01,800 --> 00:17:04,080
Speaker 1: wrote about them, and how I voted for Sabathia but

326
00:17:04,119 --> 00:17:06,920
Speaker 1: not Pettit. Those two guys are just over two hundred

327
00:17:06,960 --> 00:17:10,000
Speaker 1: and fifty wins. We might not ever see another picture

328
00:17:10,040 --> 00:17:12,479
Speaker 1: with two hundred and fifty wins. No current picture is

329
00:17:12,680 --> 00:17:16,000
Speaker 1: going to be close. Verlander, I'm sorry, has to sixty

330
00:17:16,160 --> 00:17:18,879
Speaker 1: in that range. He's already there. I'm talking about the

331
00:17:18,880 --> 00:17:22,600
Speaker 1: guys below to fifty. They're not getting there. So yes,

332
00:17:23,280 --> 00:17:26,480
Speaker 1: we do have to take a different approach with some

333
00:17:26,600 --> 00:17:30,680
Speaker 1: of these pictures, and even in a broader sense, position

334
00:17:30,800 --> 00:17:33,760
Speaker 1: players too, because sample sizes for a number of Hall

335
00:17:33,840 --> 00:17:38,320
Speaker 1: of Fame candidates are smaller, and that's a disqualifier in

336
00:17:38,359 --> 00:17:40,919
Speaker 1: many ways for a lot of candidates. But there are

337
00:17:40,960 --> 00:17:44,480
Speaker 1: some interesting names on this year's ballot Dustin Pedroia, David Wright,

338
00:17:44,520 --> 00:17:51,000
Speaker 1: Felix Hernandez. These guys had short, short terror but brilliant careers,

339
00:17:51,520 --> 00:17:54,760
Speaker 1: and I didn't vote for any of them. But I'm

340
00:17:54,760 --> 00:17:57,560
Speaker 1: not sure that that was the correct decision based on

341
00:17:57,640 --> 00:18:00,280
Speaker 1: the context of the ears in which they played, and

342
00:18:00,320 --> 00:18:02,520
Speaker 1: it's something I'm going to give further thought to in

343
00:18:02,880 --> 00:18:05,680
Speaker 1: the coming years. I expect all will remain on the ballot.

344
00:18:05,720 --> 00:18:09,040
Speaker 1: They seem to have some support, but It's just a

345
00:18:09,080 --> 00:18:12,919
Speaker 1: tricky question because once you start letting in guys who

346
00:18:13,000 --> 00:18:16,560
Speaker 1: had shorter careers, it becomes something of a slippery slope.

347
00:18:16,600 --> 00:18:19,640
Speaker 1: And I wrote about this in the Sabbathia Petti column.

348
00:18:19,720 --> 00:18:21,879
Speaker 1: I wrote about it last year too, with Utley and

349
00:18:22,040 --> 00:18:26,720
Speaker 1: Jimmy Rollins. You get into comparisons as a voter, and

350
00:18:26,760 --> 00:18:28,479
Speaker 1: you want to be fair when you say, well, if

351
00:18:28,480 --> 00:18:30,560
Speaker 1: this guy's a Hall of Famer, maybe this guy should be.

352
00:18:31,160 --> 00:18:34,240
Speaker 1: And when you allow or vote for a player with

353
00:18:34,320 --> 00:18:37,360
Speaker 1: a smaller sample size, even though he's had a brilliant career,

354
00:18:37,920 --> 00:18:41,440
Speaker 1: then other players with similar numbers in a similar career

355
00:18:42,400 --> 00:18:44,960
Speaker 1: get to the point where you think maybe they should

356
00:18:45,000 --> 00:18:47,399
Speaker 1: be Hall of Famers too, and the process kind of

357
00:18:47,440 --> 00:18:50,679
Speaker 1: gets muddled a little bit. So it's a great question.

358
00:18:50,800 --> 00:18:54,320
Speaker 1: It's something that voters will definitely take into consideration. We

359
00:18:54,359 --> 00:18:57,760
Speaker 1: can't go on win totals anymore. One we've learned that

360
00:18:57,840 --> 00:19:00,720
Speaker 1: wins are not as valuable as some other pitching statistics,

361
00:19:00,800 --> 00:19:03,040
Speaker 1: and two we also know that wins are much more

362
00:19:03,040 --> 00:19:06,439
Speaker 1: difficult to attain in the current era of modern pitching

363
00:19:06,720 --> 00:19:09,960
Speaker 1: when guys don't go as deeply into games. Our next

364
00:19:10,040 --> 00:19:12,800
Speaker 1: question comes from Paul Solice, who asks, what are the

365
00:19:12,920 --> 00:19:16,800
Speaker 1: chances Sasaki ends up with a lower market team, Paul,

366
00:19:16,840 --> 00:19:20,080
Speaker 1: that's a really good question as well, And the answer

367
00:19:20,160 --> 00:19:23,159
Speaker 1: to that is, I don't know. And I'm going to

368
00:19:23,160 --> 00:19:26,240
Speaker 1: be transparent here with why I say that we are

369
00:19:26,320 --> 00:19:29,080
Speaker 1: learning things all the time. With the Sasaki market, we

370
00:19:29,119 --> 00:19:31,679
Speaker 1: have assumed, and rightly so. I believe the Padres and

371
00:19:31,680 --> 00:19:34,280
Speaker 1: the Dodgers are among the front runners. And some of

372
00:19:34,320 --> 00:19:37,639
Speaker 1: the other teams I mentioned, the Rangers, the Mets, the Cubs,

373
00:19:37,680 --> 00:19:40,720
Speaker 1: the Yankees, and now the Blue Jays. They are all

374
00:19:40,800 --> 00:19:45,000
Speaker 1: teams that are drawing consideration at some level. None of

375
00:19:45,040 --> 00:19:47,760
Speaker 1: them is a small market team. Now does that mean

376
00:19:48,200 --> 00:19:50,760
Speaker 1: that Tampa Bay or Cleveland or a team that has

377
00:19:51,000 --> 00:19:54,159
Speaker 1: strong pitching development can't be in this mix. It doesn't

378
00:19:54,160 --> 00:19:56,320
Speaker 1: mean that at all. And it was funny. I saw

379
00:19:56,359 --> 00:19:59,479
Speaker 1: someone comment the other day that when I answer these questions,

380
00:19:59,520 --> 00:20:01,720
Speaker 1: I often s I don't know. Well, I'm not going

381
00:20:01,760 --> 00:20:04,680
Speaker 1: to lie and pretend and say something like, hey, here's

382
00:20:04,720 --> 00:20:07,120
Speaker 1: what's going to happen when I don't know what's going

383
00:20:07,160 --> 00:20:11,359
Speaker 1: to happen. But it just seems like the leading contenders here,

384
00:20:11,359 --> 00:20:14,200
Speaker 1: the ones that are publicly known, the ones we believe

385
00:20:14,280 --> 00:20:17,399
Speaker 1: to be the front runners are larger market clubs, and

386
00:20:17,440 --> 00:20:19,639
Speaker 1: I would include the Rangers in the Blue Jays in

387
00:20:19,720 --> 00:20:24,040
Speaker 1: that category. All right. The final question comes from Michael,

388
00:20:24,080 --> 00:20:28,399
Speaker 1: who asks do the Cubs have anything else brewing with

389
00:20:28,560 --> 00:20:32,520
Speaker 1: forty million dollars plus in luxury tax space below the

390
00:20:32,600 --> 00:20:35,520
Speaker 1: cap or is this the new reality the Rickets are

391
00:20:35,520 --> 00:20:39,800
Speaker 1: trying to instill? Michael, good question. Now, as you mentioned,

392
00:20:40,000 --> 00:20:43,320
Speaker 1: the Cubs are about forty million dollars below the first

393
00:20:43,400 --> 00:20:47,280
Speaker 1: luxury tax threshold. They exceeded the threshold last year. They

394
00:20:47,280 --> 00:20:51,280
Speaker 1: also exceeded previously under Rickets in twenty sixteen after they

395
00:20:51,320 --> 00:20:54,280
Speaker 1: won the World Series, and in twenty nineteen, so it's

396
00:20:54,320 --> 00:20:57,240
Speaker 1: not like they haven't gone over before, but there are

397
00:20:57,280 --> 00:20:59,639
Speaker 1: reasons why they might not want to go over again.

398
00:21:00,040 --> 00:21:02,200
Speaker 1: Once you go over back to back years or back

399
00:21:02,200 --> 00:21:06,720
Speaker 1: to back back years, then you're incurring higher penalties. That said,

400
00:21:06,840 --> 00:21:09,160
Speaker 1: forty million is a good amount of money you're under.

401
00:21:09,440 --> 00:21:12,040
Speaker 1: You can do something else, maybe a couple of things,

402
00:21:12,359 --> 00:21:15,720
Speaker 1: and still get under the threshold. So what might be

403
00:21:15,800 --> 00:21:18,879
Speaker 1: available to them? What might they be thinking? I would

404
00:21:18,880 --> 00:21:21,879
Speaker 1: expect their thinking about the bullpen, and I have heard

405
00:21:21,960 --> 00:21:25,119
Speaker 1: also they want to add another starter Would it be

406
00:21:25,160 --> 00:21:28,120
Speaker 1: a Flaherty or a Nick Pavetta. I don't know. Could

407
00:21:28,119 --> 00:21:30,159
Speaker 1: it be someone lesser than that, Yeah, it could be,

408
00:21:30,280 --> 00:21:33,600
Speaker 1: but certainly they're one of the teams along with the

409
00:21:33,640 --> 00:21:35,840
Speaker 1: Red Sox and a number of others that still have

410
00:21:35,960 --> 00:21:38,040
Speaker 1: work to do. The Blue Jays are in that category

411
00:21:38,119 --> 00:21:41,600
Speaker 1: as well, and that is why with about a month

412
00:21:41,640 --> 00:21:45,040
Speaker 1: ago before spring training, we're still going to see activity.

413
00:21:45,080 --> 00:21:48,280
Speaker 1: There are too many incomplete grades that can be given

414
00:21:48,320 --> 00:21:50,640
Speaker 1: out right now, and the Cubs get one of them.

415
00:21:50,960 --> 00:21:52,760
Speaker 1: Want to thank everyone for their questions. I want to

416
00:21:52,760 --> 00:21:55,240
Speaker 1: thank you guys for watching, for listening. You know where

417
00:21:55,240 --> 00:21:58,639
Speaker 1: to find us Apple, YouTube, Spotify, and we will be

418
00:21:58,680 --> 00:22:01,639
Speaker 1: back Thursday with our normal live show at twelve thirty

419
00:22:01,640 --> 00:22:04,880
Speaker 1: Eastern Alano Rizzo Back this week. We'll see you then.

420
00:22:05,560 --> 00:22:08,600
Speaker 4: BETMGM First bet fifteen hundred dollars offer when you use

421
00:22:08,640 --> 00:22:11,119
Speaker 4: the bonus code foul. Get this offer when you download

422
00:22:11,119 --> 00:22:14,560
Speaker 4: the Betmgmsportsbook app or at betmgm dot com sign up,

423
00:22:14,720 --> 00:22:18,440
Speaker 4: enter that bonus code foul and deposit at least ten

424
00:22:18,520 --> 00:22:21,639
Speaker 4: dollars into your new account. Place your first wager. Receive

425
00:22:21,760 --> 00:22:24,200
Speaker 4: up to fifteen hundred dollars back in bonus bets if

426
00:22:24,200 --> 00:22:27,160
Speaker 4: the bet loses. If it does lose, your bonus bets

427
00:22:27,160 --> 00:22:29,520
Speaker 4: will be available once your initial wager is settled. The

428
00:22:29,560 --> 00:22:32,639
Speaker 4: gambling problem we're concerned. There's help. Call one eight hundred

429
00:22:32,880 --> 00:22:33,280
Speaker 4: Gambler