WEBVTT - Trump Headlines White House Correspondents' Dinner; Measles Cases Rise 0:00:03.080 --> 0:00:10.720 Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. Welcome to the Bloomberg 0:00:10.800 --> 0:00:16.480 This Weekend podcast with David Gura, Christina Raffini, and Elisa Matteo. 0:00:18.280 --> 0:00:21.160 Thanks for joining us for today's selection of conversations from 0:00:21.200 --> 0:00:21.560 the show. 0:00:21.760 --> 0:00:24.040 You can listen to our favorite discussions right here on 0:00:24.079 --> 0:00:26.360 the podcast, but also make sure to join us live 0:00:26.520 --> 0:00:29.680 every Saturday and Sunday morning, starting at seven am Eastern. 0:00:29.760 --> 0:00:33.360 We're on Bloomberg Television, Radio and the Bloomberg Business App, 0:00:33.600 --> 0:00:38.120 bringing you unique takes and in depth interviews on news, politics, 0:00:38.240 --> 0:00:39.680 lifestyle and culture. 0:00:40.880 --> 0:00:43.680 President Trump returned to the White House Correspondence Centner. The 0:00:43.720 --> 0:00:46.720 initial dinner, of course, ended abruptly after a gunman breach 0:00:46.800 --> 0:00:47.479 security well. 0:00:47.479 --> 0:00:49.800 The President condemned political violence at the dinner last night, 0:00:49.840 --> 0:00:53.040 while at the same time attacking political opponents and the 0:00:53.120 --> 0:00:54.080 press at large. 0:00:54.480 --> 0:00:58.560 But tonight we come back together to answer that Hanus 0:00:58.600 --> 0:01:03.200 attack with unwavering resolve, and every one of us here 0:01:03.240 --> 0:01:07.120 this evening to show that in America we. 0:01:07.280 --> 0:01:10.520 Do not yield to political violence. 0:01:10.920 --> 0:01:14.399 As I said three months ago, the show must go on. 0:01:15.600 --> 0:01:20.600 But this place is the really largest group of Trump 0:01:21.160 --> 0:01:26.120 derangement syndrome people ever put together at one time, I 0:01:26.160 --> 0:01:30.440 suspect this evening it's really all about the fake news media, 0:01:31.319 --> 0:01:34.920 and you're handling of prizes and writing and producing and 0:01:35.000 --> 0:01:38.440 performing made up stories like the Academy Awards, and this 0:01:38.480 --> 0:01:44.280 is somewhat of a scoop my intention to run for 0:01:44.440 --> 0:01:48.640 a fourth term as President of the United States. I 0:01:48.680 --> 0:01:51.560 will be doing that. I will be having an official 0:01:51.600 --> 0:01:57.440 In fact, I think I have yeah, I want three times. 0:01:58.400 --> 0:01:59.520 Now I'm going to do it again. 0:02:03.480 --> 0:02:05.920 Thank you, Joyce. 0:02:05.920 --> 0:02:07.920 Now as Bloomberg White House correspondent Jeff Mason, he was 0:02:07.960 --> 0:02:09.799 at last night's dinner. He was a president in the 0:02:09.840 --> 0:02:11.560 past with White House Correspondent Association. 0:02:11.720 --> 0:02:13.160 Jeff, great to see you, and I. 0:02:13.160 --> 0:02:14.600 Guess I should start just by asking you about the 0:02:14.680 --> 0:02:17.040 feeling in the room. We were all there at the 0:02:17.080 --> 0:02:20.000 first iteration of this. Dinner took place at the Washington Hilton, 0:02:20.040 --> 0:02:23.200 a giant ballroom. This was a much smaller affair, different affair. 0:02:23.720 --> 0:02:25.840 How much was the program last night duplicative of what 0:02:26.000 --> 0:02:27.679 was supposed to happen at that first dinner just a 0:02:27.720 --> 0:02:28.440 couple of months ago. 0:02:29.600 --> 0:02:33.360 I think it was pretty close. In fact, the fact 0:02:33.400 --> 0:02:36.840 that of course the President spoke, the President Association spoke 0:02:37.520 --> 0:02:40.679 the awards were given to members of the press, and 0:02:40.800 --> 0:02:44.760 also student journalists were recognized for scholarships, and then there 0:02:44.880 --> 0:02:47.799 was the mentalist at the end as well. It was 0:02:47.919 --> 0:02:50.119 pretty much the program that was meant to have gone 0:02:50.160 --> 0:02:53.639 on in April, just three months later, and with the 0:02:54.720 --> 0:03:00.560 fact that that shooting stopped that dinner, that was over shadowing. 0:03:00.600 --> 0:03:04.200 I guess you could say this dinner again. But in general, 0:03:04.280 --> 0:03:06.600 the program was the same, but the venue was smaller, 0:03:06.639 --> 0:03:10.440 and that was very noticeable, certainly for someone who's attended 0:03:10.440 --> 0:03:13.079 a bunch of dinners. The ballroom at the Hilton, of 0:03:13.160 --> 0:03:15.840 course fits more than two thousand people. It's the biggest 0:03:15.880 --> 0:03:20.160 ballroom in Washington. This one was instead of about twenty 0:03:20.240 --> 0:03:23.400 six hundred people, there were fewer than seven hundred in 0:03:23.480 --> 0:03:26.160 the room. That doesn't mean it's small, but it's just 0:03:26.280 --> 0:03:29.320 a much much more I guess you could say intimate 0:03:30.000 --> 0:03:32.760 size of a dinner. And then that changed the mood 0:03:32.800 --> 0:03:34.320 in the room too. And we can talk a little 0:03:34.360 --> 0:03:38.120 bit more about this, but when the President spoke, I 0:03:38.240 --> 0:03:42.160 think that he also was speaking to what for him 0:03:42.360 --> 0:03:46.920 was an unusual crowd in that most of the people 0:03:47.000 --> 0:03:49.520 in that room were journalists like myself and it was 0:03:49.640 --> 0:03:54.120 not a friendly crowd for what ended up being very 0:03:54.200 --> 0:03:55.520 much like a rally speech. 0:03:56.000 --> 0:03:58.160 That's an interesting point, Jeff, because I mean, we said 0:03:58.200 --> 0:03:59.840 it the first cinner, and it is a huge ball, 0:04:00.080 --> 0:04:02.000 as you mentioned, and it's a mixed crowd because the 0:04:02.080 --> 0:04:05.080 journalist invites so many guests. You have entertainment people. You 0:04:05.240 --> 0:04:07.840 often invite people who are familiar. 0:04:07.480 --> 0:04:08.520 Or close to the White House. 0:04:09.000 --> 0:04:11.480 This is a much smaller room, and I imagine, you know, 0:04:11.600 --> 0:04:14.480 if he's used to speaking to a bigger crowd, it's 0:04:14.560 --> 0:04:16.440 harder when the audience is right in front of you. 0:04:16.520 --> 0:04:17.960 And you can see some of those reactions. I mean, 0:04:18.000 --> 0:04:20.360 what were the reactions to jokes like I'm assuming it 0:04:20.440 --> 0:04:22.159 was a joke, you know, running for a fourth term, 0:04:22.360 --> 0:04:24.240 and some of the other remarks, And then there were 0:04:24.279 --> 0:04:26.640 also you wrote a few awkward moments where awards were 0:04:26.680 --> 0:04:29.719 presented to journalists for being hard on this White House. 0:04:29.760 --> 0:04:30.880 How did the President react to that? 0:04:32.240 --> 0:04:35.120 Yeah, I mean to your first question. First, the reaction 0:04:35.320 --> 0:04:37.760 were a lot of straight faces in the crowd, because 0:04:37.800 --> 0:04:40.160 that's our job, you know. I mean, I certainly was 0:04:40.240 --> 0:04:42.720 keeping a straight face, and I think so were most 0:04:42.760 --> 0:04:46.160 of the reporters in the room who are committed to 0:04:46.360 --> 0:04:50.280 neutrally covering this president and recognize that that joke, as 0:04:50.360 --> 0:04:53.160 it were, of him running for what he called a 0:04:53.240 --> 0:04:58.960 fourth term is a joke about the constitution, which of 0:04:59.040 --> 0:05:01.640 course prohibits him from running for another term when he's 0:05:01.680 --> 0:05:04.320 already served too, which he will have at the end 0:05:04.360 --> 0:05:06.960 of his second term now. But he I mean, it's 0:05:07.000 --> 0:05:10.480 also again a quote unquote joke that is rooted in 0:05:10.880 --> 0:05:14.719 the fact that that's something that he was actively thinking 0:05:14.760 --> 0:05:18.200 about at the beginning of his term and something that 0:05:18.360 --> 0:05:22.040 he has openly mused about before. I think right now 0:05:22.120 --> 0:05:25.359 it is a joke. I mean, he has stopped talking 0:05:25.440 --> 0:05:29.320 about it regularly, particularly after a Speaker of the House, 0:05:29.400 --> 0:05:32.640 Mike Johnson, basically told him this is unconstitutional, and he 0:05:32.720 --> 0:05:36.360 seems to have accepted that, and so I think, you know, 0:05:36.600 --> 0:05:38.760 I think he wanted. He likes to poke at the 0:05:38.800 --> 0:05:41.160 press with stuff like that, and that was one of 0:05:41.240 --> 0:05:44.400 the things that he did last night. Remind me of 0:05:44.400 --> 0:05:45.440 your other question, Christina. 0:05:45.560 --> 0:05:47.800 That's all right, Jeff, we can move on. I know 0:05:47.880 --> 0:05:49.720 you had like three hours of sleep, so we're very 0:05:49.720 --> 0:05:51.440 grateful for your getting up a friend of the show, 0:05:51.520 --> 0:05:54.080 Jeff Mason, we really appreciate you, David. 0:05:54.200 --> 0:05:57.560 Just a generous I mean, there's been this over the 0:05:57.640 --> 0:05:59.560 course of having this dinner, there's been a conversation about 0:05:59.600 --> 0:06:02.120 should it be smaller, should it involve fewer celebrities, fewer 0:06:02.120 --> 0:06:05.000 members of the administration. I'm curious, as you experienced the 0:06:05.000 --> 0:06:06.760 dinner last night, did it give you a sense of 0:06:06.800 --> 0:06:08.600 maybe this is the way that it's headed in light 0:06:08.640 --> 0:06:10.680 of the criticism most recently that it faced after that 0:06:11.000 --> 0:06:14.440 first dinner. How is the conversation about the longevity of 0:06:14.480 --> 0:06:16.720 this dinner changed, you know, in the context of the 0:06:16.760 --> 0:06:17.560 one that we had last night. 0:06:18.360 --> 0:06:20.320 You know, I think I think the answer to that 0:06:20.520 --> 0:06:24.520 is still TBD. The The incoming president of the Association, 0:06:25.520 --> 0:06:28.000 Jackie Heinrich, who works for Fox News, announced that the 0:06:28.080 --> 0:06:31.240 dinner would be held again next year, back at the Hilton. 0:06:31.720 --> 0:06:35.360 So that was certainly a foreshadowing by the Association that 0:06:35.440 --> 0:06:38.960 they're not looking to keep the scale down version as 0:06:39.000 --> 0:06:42.880 a model. But yes, you're you're not wrong to say 0:06:42.920 --> 0:06:46.320 that this sparked a lot of conversations, certainly about security 0:06:46.400 --> 0:06:50.240 at the Hilton and security for this event, but it 0:06:50.400 --> 0:06:53.760 also sparked some conversation within the press court itself about 0:06:54.400 --> 0:06:58.279 this dinner more broadly, and it's you know, there are 0:06:58.320 --> 0:07:01.080 people who are who are are big fans of this 0:07:01.200 --> 0:07:04.480 dinner in Washington, and there are people who aren't. And 0:07:04.600 --> 0:07:06.800 I imagine those conversations will continue. 0:07:07.120 --> 0:07:09.120 Jeff Mason, come back here in a little bit. We'renna. 0:07:09.160 --> 0:07:10.440 Let you take a nap over the course the next 0:07:10.480 --> 0:07:13.840 maybe forty minutes, bringing back, take a quick disco nap, 0:07:14.040 --> 0:07:15.800 Jeff Maason, our White House correspondent, joining us on the 0:07:15.800 --> 0:07:18.120 heels the White House Correspondents Association dinner which took place 0:07:18.480 --> 0:07:18.880 last night. 0:07:19.080 --> 0:07:19.640 Thanks Jeff. 0:07:20.000 --> 0:07:20.320 All right. 0:07:20.480 --> 0:07:24.040 Just hours ago, the UK Maritime Trade Operations Center warned 0:07:24.120 --> 0:07:26.840 of an incident involving a tanker and military forces in 0:07:26.880 --> 0:07:29.440 the Gulf of Oman and his warning vessels in the 0:07:29.600 --> 0:07:30.800 area to remain diligent. 0:07:30.880 --> 0:07:33.480 Joining us now is Boomberg Energy and Commodie supporter Stephen Sebpcimski, 0:07:33.520 --> 0:07:35.560 who joins us now from Singaport. Seem great to have 0:07:35.640 --> 0:07:37.280 you with us, and I want to start just by 0:07:37.320 --> 0:07:39.480 asking you how the contours of this war have changed 0:07:39.480 --> 0:07:41.960 here in recent days that the Houthies, which were of 0:07:42.000 --> 0:07:45.120 course lined aligned with the Iranians, getting into this conflict. 0:07:45.200 --> 0:07:48.080 Announcing this this blockade, and maybe I could ask you 0:07:48.200 --> 0:07:51.280 first just what effect that's had so far on the 0:07:51.360 --> 0:07:54.480 oil trade and sort of what traders, what investors are 0:07:54.480 --> 0:07:56.360 thinking about the consequences of that going forward. 0:07:57.640 --> 0:07:59.080 You know, I think the market is still trying to 0:07:59.200 --> 0:08:02.720 digest exactly what is happening or in the Red Sea 0:08:02.880 --> 0:08:05.480 and at the Bab Almandeb Strait, which is where the 0:08:05.560 --> 0:08:08.520 Hoo thieves are trying to tighten control. Now let's put 0:08:08.560 --> 0:08:10.920 this into context, since the Straight of Horn moves close 0:08:11.000 --> 0:08:13.680 effectively since the end of February, when the US and 0:08:13.840 --> 0:08:17.600 Israel began strikes on Iran, Saudi Arabia was beginning to 0:08:17.640 --> 0:08:21.280 ship more of its oil. Four million barrels per day 0:08:21.760 --> 0:08:24.280 were loaded in the Red Sea through an east west pipeline. 0:08:24.320 --> 0:08:26.480 Normally that oil be flowing through Hormves it was shot, 0:08:26.520 --> 0:08:29.480 so they were using this workaround. The oil would then 0:08:29.520 --> 0:08:32.160 go south, down through the Red Sea, through the Bab 0:08:32.240 --> 0:08:35.719 Almandeb Straight and then out to customers in Asia. And 0:08:35.800 --> 0:08:39.840 what's happened is with the Houthi rebels increasing attacks targeting 0:08:39.920 --> 0:08:44.080 specifically Saudi ships, there was a fear that this key 0:08:44.280 --> 0:08:47.440 workaround was now in danger and either would really real 0:08:47.559 --> 0:08:50.559 lead to delays or even a reduction in loading from 0:08:50.679 --> 0:08:53.959 from Saudi ports, because that would require them going through 0:08:54.000 --> 0:08:57.920 the north, through the Suez Canal through and then around 0:08:58.280 --> 0:09:00.880 the southern Cape of Africa to get the customers in Asia. 0:09:01.559 --> 0:09:03.920 We did see a few ships you turn over the 0:09:04.000 --> 0:09:08.199 last week away from the Babel Mandeb straight but in 0:09:08.240 --> 0:09:10.640 the last twenty four hours we did see two China 0:09:10.760 --> 0:09:14.600 linked super oil tankers though carrying Saudi crude did get through, 0:09:14.760 --> 0:09:17.560 So it's a mixed picture. There is some oil flowing through, 0:09:18.360 --> 0:09:22.079 but at the same time there are some ships turning around, 0:09:22.160 --> 0:09:25.240 and you saw oil prices. Brent was about one hundred 0:09:25.240 --> 0:09:28.439 dollars a barrel when I was leaving the office Asia afternoon, 0:09:28.720 --> 0:09:32.520 but it closed the session US afternoon around ninety six 0:09:32.679 --> 0:09:35.240 ninety seven dollars, which indicates a bit of a fall 0:09:35.440 --> 0:09:39.240 after those red sea flows continued. But at the same time, 0:09:39.280 --> 0:09:41.559 you have to remember this is Friday. You never know 0:09:41.640 --> 0:09:43.840 what Trump's going to do. It was probably a lot 0:09:43.880 --> 0:09:46.240 of people just wanting to enjoy the weekend as well 0:09:46.320 --> 0:09:48.560 and not have to worry about having a long position 0:09:48.720 --> 0:09:50.480 going in. But at the same time, the market, the 0:09:50.520 --> 0:09:52.240 way they're looking at this, it is. 0:09:52.280 --> 0:09:55.360 A risk, and this is the biggest escalation. 0:09:55.520 --> 0:09:59.160 Of the war in the region and attacks on infrastructure 0:09:59.600 --> 0:10:03.400 risk to oil that we've seen since March and April. 0:10:04.160 --> 0:10:06.040 I'm wondering, can you to find that risk a little 0:10:06.040 --> 0:10:08.200 bit because I know, according to a report from CBS, 0:10:08.240 --> 0:10:11.559 at least seven major pipeline projects are under construction trying 0:10:11.600 --> 0:10:15.199 to find alternatives to the Strait. And I know the 0:10:15.320 --> 0:10:17.199 main threat right now in the Red Sea is the 0:10:17.240 --> 0:10:19.839 distribution point, but we've also got reports this morning the 0:10:19.880 --> 0:10:22.480 Houthis have claimed to destruct Saudi Arabia with missiles on 0:10:22.559 --> 0:10:26.160 Saturday morning. Is the concern mostly about that Red Sea 0:10:26.200 --> 0:10:28.960 distribution point? Or is the concern also that an escalation 0:10:29.040 --> 0:10:31.400 between Saudi's and the Houthis could start to impact Saudi 0:10:31.440 --> 0:10:32.199 production as well. 0:10:33.640 --> 0:10:35.640 You know, I think that's a really good point, and 0:10:35.720 --> 0:10:38.280 it's both and I go even a step further that 0:10:38.840 --> 0:10:41.679 any sort of flare up between Saudi Arabia and the 0:10:41.760 --> 0:10:44.600 Houthis and the Houthis attacking ships. Trump himself has said 0:10:44.640 --> 0:10:47.040 that they will then if their ship's attacked by the Hohothies, 0:10:47.080 --> 0:10:50.960 they will then attack Iran, and he's threatened power plants 0:10:51.080 --> 0:10:54.360 and bridges Iran in time said that if that happens, 0:10:54.400 --> 0:10:57.600 they will attack energy infrastructural throat the region. The biggest 0:10:57.760 --> 0:11:02.280 risk in this war since since hasn't necessarily been the 0:11:02.360 --> 0:11:05.480 closure of these straits, these waterways. Sure they could be closed, 0:11:05.480 --> 0:11:07.040 but with a good piece deal, they could open up 0:11:07.120 --> 0:11:11.120 within weeks and trade could resume to normal in months. 0:11:11.559 --> 0:11:14.400 The real fear has been if this escalates into a 0:11:14.520 --> 0:11:19.680 wider conflict within the region, if energy infrastructure, pipelines, LICKFI, 0:11:19.800 --> 0:11:23.959 natural gas plants, ships, if they're getting attacked, that's infrastructure 0:11:24.000 --> 0:11:26.480 that can't easily come back online if there is a 0:11:26.559 --> 0:11:29.640 piece deal. So the reason why oil was at one 0:11:29.720 --> 0:11:32.600 hundred and twenty dollars in March wasn't so much because 0:11:32.760 --> 0:11:35.760 of the hormones closure. It was because Iran kept attacking 0:11:35.840 --> 0:11:39.360 infrastructure across the region. We haven't gotten to that worst 0:11:39.440 --> 0:11:42.199 case scenario that we've seen three or four months back, 0:11:42.400 --> 0:11:45.160 but if it does spiral into that sort of situation, yes, 0:11:45.240 --> 0:11:47.199 certainly that is something that the market is going to 0:11:47.240 --> 0:11:50.640 be deeply worried about. And if Saudi Arabia create other 0:11:50.720 --> 0:11:54.400 countries Qatar's LNG export plant, if all those facilities are 0:11:54.400 --> 0:11:56.960 either damaged more or if they have to reduce production, 0:11:57.480 --> 0:12:00.200 then then certainly we'll see another leg up in rent 0:12:00.240 --> 0:12:01.440 and WTI oil prices. 0:12:01.600 --> 0:12:03.439 Steve, when I said that was the Fonti Bureau a 0:12:03.720 --> 0:12:05.839 few weeks ago, and we talked about the state of 0:12:05.880 --> 0:12:08.320 inventories around the world, and countries have begun to kind 0:12:08.320 --> 0:12:12.520 of refill those reserves that they had in the lulls 0:12:12.559 --> 0:12:13.280 that we've seen. 0:12:13.679 --> 0:12:14.760 Sounds like they haven't. 0:12:14.800 --> 0:12:16.079 Can you just get us up to speed sort of 0:12:16.120 --> 0:12:18.920 on the status of reserves globally. I know there's been 0:12:18.920 --> 0:12:20.319 a lot of focus here in the US, where the 0:12:20.360 --> 0:12:22.599 strategic petroleum reserve is the lowest it's been in a 0:12:22.760 --> 0:12:26.080 very long long time. How much effort has there been 0:12:26.240 --> 0:12:28.480 around the world to kind of replenish those reserves that 0:12:28.480 --> 0:12:30.440 have been deployed on an emergency basis since the start 0:12:30.480 --> 0:12:31.479 of this conflict. 0:12:32.160 --> 0:12:35.360 You know, I think I think the better way to 0:12:35.400 --> 0:12:39.040 look at it, perhaps is that a lot of customers 0:12:39.120 --> 0:12:42.840 in Asia of Persian golf oil they're really looking at 0:12:42.920 --> 0:12:46.160 they were looking at replacing their supply instead of replenishing. 0:12:46.720 --> 0:12:51.160 So there hasn't been a really big effort to refill inventories. 0:12:51.200 --> 0:12:53.960 As you said, the SPR in the United States lowest 0:12:54.040 --> 0:12:55.800 level in decades, pushing as well. 0:12:55.880 --> 0:13:00.800 A key point it's getting low used to decrease. 0:13:01.760 --> 0:13:05.679 Chinese oil inventories are something that are opaque. You're not 0:13:05.720 --> 0:13:08.240 exactly sure what's going on there, but there is an 0:13:08.280 --> 0:13:10.960 expectation that China use quite a lot of their oil 0:13:11.000 --> 0:13:16.080 inventories when when their imports dropped pretty significantly in April 0:13:16.240 --> 0:13:19.920 May and then into June, so and then Japan as well. 0:13:20.040 --> 0:13:22.480 All the other G seven nations had been using their 0:13:22.559 --> 0:13:25.920 spr So you're in a situation where oil inventories are low. 0:13:25.960 --> 0:13:30.079 But it's not just oils, also other fuels diesel, gasoline, 0:13:30.160 --> 0:13:35.160 jet fuel. The amount of supply globally is at an 0:13:35.280 --> 0:13:38.200 uncomfortable level and that's why you're seeing those product prices 0:13:38.280 --> 0:13:40.920 rise as well. And it's also not just oil products, 0:13:40.960 --> 0:13:44.480 it's also natural gas. In Europe, natural gas inventories at 0:13:44.559 --> 0:13:48.079 the lowest seasonal level in about five years. They're not 0:13:48.240 --> 0:13:51.720 on pace to hit an eighty percent target refill by November, 0:13:51.760 --> 0:13:53.600 which is what they want to be at when when 0:13:53.640 --> 0:13:56.240 winter starts. Because in winter and Europe they use a 0:13:56.280 --> 0:14:00.440 lot of natural gas for heating. So inventories are a problem. 0:14:00.520 --> 0:14:03.520 And I think the issue is we pulled that lever 0:14:03.960 --> 0:14:06.480 in March and April to help ease some of the 0:14:06.559 --> 0:14:09.800 pain in the oil market, and because of this current 0:14:09.840 --> 0:14:12.880 situation with depleted inventories, you can't really pull that lever 0:14:13.160 --> 0:14:16.000 again if this horror moves, closure continues, and if the 0:14:16.040 --> 0:14:20.080 bab al Mandeb straight as well is affected. So it 0:14:20.400 --> 0:14:22.600 is a worrying part of the market. 0:14:23.080 --> 0:14:24.880 Are you starting to see that stress a little bit 0:14:24.960 --> 0:14:26.880 in the prices of oil? I mean, it seems to me, 0:14:26.960 --> 0:14:28.720 as we've been covering this conflict, there's been kind of 0:14:28.720 --> 0:14:32.240 this indefatigable optimism, of somewhat frustrating optimism for those of 0:14:32.320 --> 0:14:34.720 us who covered diplomacy that this is going to get resolved. 0:14:34.760 --> 0:14:36.480 But I'm wondering if that's because they did have those 0:14:36.520 --> 0:14:38.680 strategic reserves as kind of a buffer, and ASO start 0:14:38.720 --> 0:14:40.840 to deplete, do you think that optimism will start to 0:14:40.880 --> 0:14:41.480 wane as well. 0:14:43.040 --> 0:14:45.880 I think there are a few reasons why oil has 0:14:45.960 --> 0:14:48.600 I mean, granted, we're at one hundred dollars print in 0:14:49.720 --> 0:14:52.920 very just a few short weeks, so I would say 0:14:52.960 --> 0:14:55.000 that we're at a pretty relatively high level. We're not 0:14:55.120 --> 0:14:57.080 the highs of one hundred and twenty that we were before, 0:14:57.120 --> 0:14:59.000 and we're certainly not near two hundred dollars, which is 0:14:59.040 --> 0:15:01.360 what some analysts we're warning about. Part of that is 0:15:01.400 --> 0:15:04.120 because of the workarounds, you know, the Saudi Arabia's Red 0:15:04.200 --> 0:15:08.400 C the East West Pipeline. They had their ad knock 0:15:08.440 --> 0:15:11.320 in the UE being able to do their uh their 0:15:11.360 --> 0:15:13.880 shuttle service to get some oil out, which is to 0:15:14.000 --> 0:15:17.120 a degree continuing perhaps although those ships are going dark 0:15:18.360 --> 0:15:21.880 as well. Chinese demand has not really returned, and China 0:15:21.960 --> 0:15:24.160 is one of the big factors that the biggest buyer 0:15:24.240 --> 0:15:28.560 of oil globally. So as long as China, Chinese demand 0:15:28.560 --> 0:15:31.040 doesn't come roaring back, that does add a lot of 0:15:31.320 --> 0:15:34.800 length and and it does provide some ease to the market. 0:15:35.480 --> 0:15:37.280 But I would say it is showing up in some prices. 0:15:37.320 --> 0:15:39.320 I mean you look at the diesel run rate or 0:15:39.920 --> 0:15:43.600 basically the the the profits that you can make from 0:15:44.240 --> 0:15:50.440 refining crude into diesel, gasoline and other other products has jumped. 0:15:50.800 --> 0:15:53.000 There is a need for for those fuels, and there 0:15:53.080 --> 0:15:53.240 is a. 0:15:53.280 --> 0:15:58.000 Fear that those supplies are depleting natural gas supply is 0:15:58.440 --> 0:16:01.360 natural gas in Europe. Those price this are a settled 0:16:01.400 --> 0:16:05.040 basis at the highest level since twenty twenty three, LNG 0:16:05.200 --> 0:16:08.080 prices in Asia at the highest level since March, and 0:16:08.280 --> 0:16:10.640 almost the highest level since January twenty twenty three. 0:16:10.720 --> 0:16:12.640 So you are starting to see that some. 0:16:12.720 --> 0:16:15.080 Of that pain maybe not showing up in crude itself, 0:16:15.560 --> 0:16:18.160 which is about twenty dollars off from the highs of March, 0:16:18.400 --> 0:16:19.840 but you're seeing it in other products. 0:16:20.400 --> 0:16:21.800 See before we let you go, let me ask you 0:16:21.840 --> 0:16:24.440 about another shooting war, the one taking place in Ukraine 0:16:24.480 --> 0:16:26.200 and the effect that that's had on energy prices. We've 0:16:26.200 --> 0:16:28.360 talked a lot about the crackspread in recent weeks on 0:16:28.680 --> 0:16:32.360 the show, talked about refined products, and we've seen Ukraine 0:16:32.400 --> 0:16:35.760 launching those attacks on energy facilities in Russia, and we've 0:16:35.760 --> 0:16:39.080 seen Russia reply and kind targeting energy facilities in Ukraine. 0:16:39.720 --> 0:16:42.560 What have been what's our sense of the broader implications 0:16:42.600 --> 0:16:44.320 of that on the global energy market, the way that 0:16:44.400 --> 0:16:45.120 that's escalated. 0:16:46.080 --> 0:16:48.080 I mean, that's again, that's one more lever that the 0:16:48.160 --> 0:16:51.040 market was depending on that is now gone. So let's 0:16:51.040 --> 0:16:54.080 look at it from a crude perspective. The Black Sea 0:16:54.160 --> 0:16:58.760 is a key export area for Kazakhstan oil. 0:16:59.040 --> 0:17:00.400 It goes to the CPC. 0:17:00.560 --> 0:17:04.000 Through the CPC pipeline to a Russian port, and right 0:17:04.080 --> 0:17:07.359 now Russia Moscow's basically said that it is unsafe for 0:17:07.520 --> 0:17:11.280 them to be docking there. Ukraine has targeted in recent 0:17:11.359 --> 0:17:16.560 weeks over ninety ships that are connected with Moscow. So 0:17:17.480 --> 0:17:22.159 you're removing those Kazakhstan supplies, which I believe is about 0:17:22.320 --> 0:17:25.880 one to one point five percent of global seaborne oil supplies. 0:17:25.920 --> 0:17:26.560 It's not nothing. 0:17:26.720 --> 0:17:30.000 So again with Babelmandem straight with horror moves, that's one 0:17:30.119 --> 0:17:32.199 one amount of oil that's that's reduced. Then you look 0:17:32.280 --> 0:17:36.320 at the refining capacity in Russia which has been greatly 0:17:36.480 --> 0:17:41.000 affected and disrupted by constant attacks by Iran on the refineries, 0:17:41.400 --> 0:17:45.600 and Russia is a big, pretty big supplier and exporter 0:17:45.760 --> 0:17:49.000 of that fuel and they've had to restrain and essentially 0:17:49.080 --> 0:17:53.160 stop exports of diesel. Again, that tightens the global diesel market. 0:17:53.240 --> 0:17:55.800 So you're getting the crude hit from Kazakhstan and also 0:17:55.840 --> 0:17:59.840 the diesel hit again, tightening things for consumers globally. 0:18:00.000 --> 0:18:02.439 All right, Steve Sipchinski, thank you for breaking that all 0:18:02.480 --> 0:18:03.000 down for us. 0:18:05.840 --> 0:18:08.320 Stay with us for more on Bloomberg this weekend. 0:18:08.680 --> 0:18:20.439 Right after this, and. 0:18:20.480 --> 0:18:23.760 Alarming statistics from the CDC On Friday, the number of 0:18:23.840 --> 0:18:26.360 measles cases this year in the United States hit two 0:18:26.440 --> 0:18:29.840 three hundred and eighteen. That's higher than all of last 0:18:29.920 --> 0:18:32.639 year and is now the most infection since nineteen ninety one. 0:18:32.880 --> 0:18:34.720 For more, joining by doctor Amisiadlogy. 0:18:34.720 --> 0:18:37.160 He's an infectious disease expert and senior scholar at Johns 0:18:37.160 --> 0:18:40.119 Hopkins University Center for Health Security. Doctor Dalsh, great to 0:18:40.160 --> 0:18:41.520 have you with us once again, and let me just 0:18:41.520 --> 0:18:44.280 start by asking you about how we got to this place. 0:18:44.359 --> 0:18:46.080 And I guess a natural follow on to that is 0:18:46.119 --> 0:18:47.560 what would the US need to do to kind of 0:18:47.640 --> 0:18:50.479 get beyond this or get back to the way things were? 0:18:50.720 --> 0:18:52.120 How far is the cat out of the bag? 0:18:53.560 --> 0:18:56.160 When you think about outbreak, sometimes it's hard to understand 0:18:56.200 --> 0:18:58.640 how things got started. How you got to the status 0:18:58.720 --> 0:19:02.400 quo with measles. It's really a no brainer. We got 0:19:02.440 --> 0:19:06.640 there because vaccination rates fell below the herd immunity threshold. 0:19:06.640 --> 0:19:09.320 And we're talking about what is the most contagious infectious 0:19:09.320 --> 0:19:13.280 disease that we humans face, one that requires a high 0:19:13.359 --> 0:19:16.400 level of immunity in the population, and one in which 0:19:16.680 --> 0:19:19.160 it's circulating in many parts of the world. So all 0:19:19.200 --> 0:19:21.600 it took was for us to lower our armor, to 0:19:21.720 --> 0:19:25.080 lower our force field, and then measles came back. It 0:19:25.240 --> 0:19:28.560 never went away. And the solution is equally simple. It's 0:19:28.720 --> 0:19:31.000 just to get more vaccine into the arms of people 0:19:31.000 --> 0:19:33.920 who are unvaccinated, and then this problem will disappear. 0:19:35.040 --> 0:19:36.919 David and I have a selfish question when we were 0:19:36.960 --> 0:19:40.560 putting this in the lineup yesterday. We've had mmrs as kids. 0:19:41.320 --> 0:19:44.960 Are we protected people who had the usual vaccine course 0:19:44.960 --> 0:19:47.239 as children? Does that take you through adulthood or at 0:19:47.280 --> 0:19:48.840 some point if you're in one of these places with 0:19:48.960 --> 0:19:51.040 high infection rates, do you need some sort of booster. 0:19:52.359 --> 0:19:55.480 The vast, vast majority of people the standard two dose 0:19:55.560 --> 0:19:58.960 childhood vaccination schedule will protect them for life. That doesn't 0:19:59.000 --> 0:20:00.800 mean that the vaccine is a high undred percent, but 0:20:00.920 --> 0:20:05.280 it's pushing above ninety five percent. So there's no generalized 0:20:05.480 --> 0:20:09.120 recommendation for boosters that are needed for the population. It's 0:20:09.200 --> 0:20:12.080 really about people who've had zero doses of measles. That's 0:20:12.119 --> 0:20:12.879 what's driving this. 0:20:13.800 --> 0:20:15.680 You know, your line of work, a lot of what 0:20:15.760 --> 0:20:17.640 you deal with is kind of communication about the need 0:20:17.760 --> 0:20:20.640 for vaccination going forward. And I'm curious at this moment 0:20:20.720 --> 0:20:23.840