Speaker 1: The volume. Don't miss the action this weekend when the
Speaker 1: Indianapolis Colts and the New England Patriots head to Frankfurt
Speaker 1: for the Frankfurt Games in Germany. All right, these games
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Speaker 1: Premium monthly retail plan prices. All right, I had to
Speaker 1: watch that god awful thing on Amazon. Very rarely do
Speaker 1: I have sympathy for broadcasters who are well compensated for
Speaker 1: talking football. But that was That was rough. The football
Speaker 1: gods have been cruel to Amazon and Jeff Bezos. That
Speaker 1: is hard to watch. But that was not insignificant. So
Speaker 1: the Bears have some pieces. Most of the bad teams
Speaker 1: in this league have pieces. The Giants are bad, but
Speaker 1: I like their head coach, I like their left tackle.
Speaker 1: I like Cavon Thiebaudeaux. They are parts of the Giants.
Speaker 1: I like Washington's got a new owner. They have some
Speaker 1: really interesting pieces at wide receiver and running back. Arizona's bad,
Speaker 1: but they have Kyler Murray right, their new coach is
Speaker 1: kind of interesting. Atlanta's got some offensive pieces. I know
Speaker 1: they're bad. Same with Tampa Bay. Carolina is talentless. So
Speaker 1: the Chicago Bears, by winning, don't have the first or
Speaker 1: second pick of their own. They need Carolina to keep
Speaker 1: losing because they have Carolina's pick, and Carolina plays Tampa twice,
Speaker 1: Carolina plays Atlanta, I think they played Green Bay. They
Speaker 1: get some of the dregs of the league, so Carolina
Speaker 1: could stumble in to wins. I mean they beat Houston,
Speaker 1: I don't. I mean it's a talentless offense. There is
Speaker 1: Bryce Young doesn't look great. There is nothing to work with.
Speaker 1: They don't have a number one receiver. They don't have
Speaker 1: a number two receiver. I'm not sure they have a three.
Speaker 1: Mingo looks like just a guy so tight end, running back,
Speaker 1: wide receiver. They have no special players, no juice offensively.
Speaker 1: But they play some of the weaker NFL teams down
Speaker 1: the stretch. And remember, if the Bears don't get the
Speaker 1: first pick, and right now again their pick doesn't look
Speaker 1: like they will with a win, and Carolina want a
Speaker 1: couple games now. They don't have the first or the
Speaker 1: second pick, and there's only two locks at quarterback. Drake
Speaker 1: May and Caleb Williams are really a prospects. Everybody else
Speaker 1: has issues. Nobody thinks, you know, bow Nicks or Pennix
Speaker 1: are going to walk into this league and take it
Speaker 1: by storm. Those are guys that will be as good
Speaker 1: as their surrounding talent, which is almost always the case anyway,
Speaker 1: you know, save for your Lways and Andrew Lux and
Speaker 1: Trevor Lawrence's, most guys are as good as their opportunity.
Speaker 1: So and Chicago's got some good players Montese Sweat. I
Speaker 1: like their running backs, DJ Moore, Cole Comet. Secondary's got
Speaker 1: some young pieces. One of their tackles is rated very
Speaker 1: high by PFF. Chicago's got some pieces. If they went
Speaker 1: and got Ben Johnson, the offensive coordinator for the Lions,
Speaker 1: and landed Caleb Williams or Drake May, let's say Drake May.
Speaker 1: At this point. If Drake May is as good as
Speaker 1: advertised with a good offensive coordinator, you know they've it
Speaker 1: wouldn't surprise me in that division. I mean, Green Bay
Speaker 1: didn't know who their quarterback is. Minnesota didn't know who
Speaker 1: their quarterback is. Detroit's formidable, but I mean two of
Speaker 1: the teams, don't you know, they're scratching their head on
Speaker 1: what to do with the most important position in football.
Speaker 1: So Chicago's got some pieces. N FC is weaker, their
Speaker 1: division isn't terribly strong. They just need the right coach
Speaker 1: and the right quarterback. So and it's nothing against Justin Fields,
Speaker 1: but he is what the first round quarterback data provides
Speaker 1: less than half make it misses too many games, wins
Speaker 1: too few, doesn't seem when you watch a CJ. Stroud
Speaker 1: walk in with that old line and that ownership, and
Speaker 1: I know Justin Fields has a lot to overcome. The
Speaker 1: mccaskeys are some of the I think second or third
Speaker 1: poorest owners, front office, draft picks, head coach. It didn't
Speaker 1: have a ton to work with. But he also can't
Speaker 1: stay healthy. I mean, for twelve years, Eli Manning didn't
Speaker 1: miss a single start. His running style got him hurt
Speaker 1: at Ohio State, and it's getting him hurt in the NFL.
Speaker 1: That's the reality of it. So you know, it's one
Speaker 1: of the things about this league that if you're a
Speaker 1: bad NBA team, it's really hard to turn it around.
Speaker 1: Same in baseball, I mean, half the teams in baseball
Speaker 1: just can't keep up financially. Half the teams in the
Speaker 1: NBA just don't have the requisite talent. It's not that
Speaker 1: way in the NFL. You get the right coach, you
Speaker 1: get the right quarterback. There's enough surrounding pieces. With Chicago,
Speaker 1: they can be just fine very quickly. Wouldn't surprise me
Speaker 1: at all. Now they have an elite guy up front
Speaker 1: in Montese Sweat. They have some nice weapons. Their running
Speaker 1: backs are fine. They got some nice pieces. They like
Speaker 1: their young secondary. They've hitting a couple of draft picks.
Speaker 1: Hit on one of their offensive line picks. They're not
Speaker 1: without talent. I mean again, they let Bill Polian run
Speaker 1: their coaching search. Bill's old school went defensive coach. It's
Speaker 1: not where I would have gone, But you know, I
Speaker 1: always it's funny about it when you look around this league.
Speaker 1: I think running the Volume has been really interesting because
Speaker 1: when I first took my swing at the Volume, my
Speaker 1: takeaway was I'm not going to pay myself. I'm going
Speaker 1: to get really good management. And so you know, I didn't.
Speaker 1: I don't take a check. I'm glad not to because
Speaker 1: we have a really good staff. So having been in
Speaker 1: this business for twenty five years. One of the things
Speaker 1: I really recognized is there's a sea of money. You
Speaker 1: can make money, but you got to get really good people.
Speaker 1: Because I've worked for most of my career with really
Speaker 1: good really good management, really good producers, and I've watched
Speaker 1: people's career who are really talented circle to drain because
Speaker 1: they have bad bosses. And so I think people just
Speaker 1: don't understand it is not an even playing field. I mean,
Speaker 1: if you go look at the NFC West, the Paul
Speaker 1: Allen Fund, Jody and Paul Allen Fund, they're the second
Speaker 1: richest owners in this league behind the Denver Broncos new owners.
Speaker 1: So you have those owners, the York families loaded Stan
Speaker 1: Kronk's top six to seven owner in terms of net worth,
Speaker 1: and the Bidwells are some of the poorest owners in
Speaker 1: the NFL. So the revenue, the ability to just go
Speaker 1: buy players, everybody thinks, well, it's everybody's got the same
Speaker 1: salary cap. Not everybody has the same money. There's a
Speaker 1: huge gap between what Arizona can spend and what the Rams,
Speaker 1: San Francisco and Seattle can spend. And I just don't
Speaker 1: think people understand is that The reason the Bears have
Speaker 1: been bad forever is they don't have good owners. They
Speaker 1: don't have wealthy owners. They don't have good owners. They
Speaker 1: have the oldest owner of Virginia McCaskey. In the entire NFL.
Speaker 1: It's not a dynamic, vibrant ownership group. And that's what
Speaker 1: holds everything back. I mean, just when they hired Matt Eberflus,
Speaker 1: I mean, look around the league, look at the offensive coaches.
Speaker 1: Look at who is flourishing. It's overwhelmingly offensive coaches. I mean,
Speaker 1: right now, Mike McDaniels in Miami looks like they have
Speaker 1: a chance if they can write the ship, win the division.
Speaker 1: And then there's you know, Zach Taylor and Joe Burrow surging.
Speaker 1: If not Cleveland offensive coach, Jacksonville offensive coach, Kansas City
Speaker 1: offensive coach. Then you go over to the NFC Dallas
Speaker 1: and Philadelphia offensive coach, Detroit Leeds their division offensive coach,
Speaker 1: NFC West could be Kyle Shanahan. They have the best team,
Speaker 1: I think, best roster offensive coach. So you know, and
Speaker 1: they what are the Bears do? I mean, you're paying
Speaker 1: attention at all, so, I you know, I just think
Speaker 1: sometimes we forget there's all so much you can do.
Speaker 1: The employees always get blamed for overwhelmingly for problems with
Speaker 1: productivity or performance. At any company in America. You can't
Speaker 1: overcome lousy ownership. You just can't. That's why when I
Speaker 1: built the volume, it was like I was going to
Speaker 1: go and find the best available people to run it.
Speaker 1: We have an incredible staff, and it's made this voyage
Speaker 1: two and a half years much easier than I thought
Speaker 1: it would be. I don't have to overcome incompetence. I
Speaker 1: walk in every day. I just had a meeting today
Speaker 1: about some financials and about you know where we're headed,
Speaker 1: and it's just an It's so nice to work with
Speaker 1: smart people. Chicago has never once founded in nineteen twenty.
Speaker 1: They've never once had the best quarterback in the league,
Speaker 1: never in any decade, any era, arguably never in a
Speaker 1: single year. Jay Cutler's are all time passing leader. You
Speaker 1: can keep blaming all the coaches and the general managers,
Speaker 1: but it's a really dysfunctional organization. My wife wants us
Speaker 1: to live in Chicago, and I really do love it.
Speaker 1: Don't love their winners, but I love it, and I'm like, honey,
Speaker 1: I don't know if I can live at a city with
Speaker 1: that bad of an NFL franchise, I don't know if
Speaker 1: I can do it. It's under consideration, but I don't
Speaker 1: know if I can do it. So I've taken a
Speaker 1: very pro Jim Harbaugh stance, very pro Jim Harbaughs stance
Speaker 1: on the advance scouting accusations. I don't think Harbaugh is
Speaker 1: completely innocent. I just think advanced scouting is sort of nonsense.
Speaker 1: It's a nineteen ninety four created rule that most of
Speaker 1: you didn't know existed. That was to stop the separation
Speaker 1: of have and have nots in college football financially, which
Speaker 1: is a joke because it's always been more than any
Speaker 1: sport in America, a sport of have and have nots.
Speaker 1: The same teams that were good in the sixties were
Speaker 1: good in the seventies and the eighties and the nineties,
Speaker 1: the two thousands, twenty tens and now Alabama, Oklahoma's you know,
Speaker 1: look around. It was the same teams, Michigan, Ohio State,
Speaker 1: the same teams. Very few new college football powers. Oregon
Speaker 1: because of Phil Knights money and vision is one of them.
Speaker 1: Not many. I mean, Washington was good in the seventies,
Speaker 1: Washington won a national title in the nineties. Washington is
Speaker 1: good again. It's a lot of the same teams, Penn State, Michigan,
Speaker 1: Ohio State. But I also know that Jim Harbaugh runs
Speaker 1: really hot. He lasts about four years everywhere San Francisco, Stanford,
Speaker 1: San Diego, and now he's at what like seven eight
Speaker 1: years for Michigan, and Jim wears people out. I've known
Speaker 1: multiple people who have worked with Jim Harbaugh and they
Speaker 1: like Jim Harbaugh, but he runs really, really hot, and
Speaker 1: over the course of his tenure. It's not a surprise
Speaker 1: to me, which I reported a couple of days ago
Speaker 1: on FS one, that Jim Harbaugh really polarizing guy has
Speaker 1: a couple of enemies within the Michigan fan family, being
Speaker 1: like donors and boosters, and these are billionaires and one
Speaker 1: hundred millionaires and they want a lot of attention and
Speaker 1: they want their way, and hardball is just not going
Speaker 1: to give you that patent, the back and the Ada
Speaker 1: boy that you want. So it doesn't surprise me that
Speaker 1: this is, as I've been saying, an inside job. It
Speaker 1: didn't come from Ohio State or Iowa, Purduer, Penn State.
Speaker 1: It came from inside Michigan because through the years, I've
Speaker 1: seen this time and time again, these college coaches, these
Speaker 1: football coaches, their salaries are published, and there's a lot
Speaker 1: of animosity in the building from other coaches who are
Speaker 1: having to make cuts constantly because of the football program. Now,
Speaker 1: football should be highly compensated. The only thing that makes
Speaker 1: money consistently. Men's and women's basketball and football consistently make money.
Speaker 1: Most everything loses gobs of money. Now you can go
Speaker 1: to the South and the baseball teams make money, or
Speaker 1: Yukon and the women's basketball makes big money. You know,
Speaker 1: there are exceptions, of course, but basically, you know, basketball,
Speaker 1: men's and women's can make a profit, and then the
Speaker 1: football makes tons. So there's a lot of animosity and
Speaker 1: envy inside these athletic departments. So it's not a surprise
Speaker 1: that Harbaugh pissed somebody off. And in his personalities, you know,
Speaker 1: he doesn't ingratiate himself to everybody. He's really focused, he's
Speaker 1: very competitive, and you know, if you don't like him,
Speaker 1: he doesn't care. So you know, that's just part of
Speaker 1: who he is. It's part of what makes him great,
Speaker 1: and it's sort of the burden of hiring Jim and
Speaker 1: what you got to deal with Nick Saban very similar.
Speaker 1: So it's not a surprise that somebody inside the Michigan
Speaker 1: family is ticked off. But what I've been told is,
Speaker 1: you know, more people knew inside Michigan than has been reported.
Speaker 1: It's an inside job, somebody unhappy with Harbaugh, and I
Speaker 1: mean to me, it probably initiates if this thing goes sideways,
Speaker 1: it probably initiates Harball moving to the NFL. And it's
Speaker 1: a very rare year where there's a lot of potentially
Speaker 1: good jobs with excellent young college quarterbacks coming out, including
Speaker 1: Harbaugh's own at Michigan. But I know what he did
Speaker 1: was over the top. I've said from the very beginning.
Speaker 1: Everybody speeds on the four or five in Los Angeles.
Speaker 1: You know, it's it's sixty five. I go sixty nine
Speaker 1: to seventy, right, you know everybody does every morning. When
Speaker 1: I get out, even at five point fifty five in
Speaker 1: the morning, it's crowded and everybody's flym driving seventy miles
Speaker 1: an hour and I'm not passing anybody. Harbaugh was doing
Speaker 1: ninety in a Maserati with sunglasses on, you know, like
Speaker 1: it was over the top. I'm not denying that. I
Speaker 1: just think it's an antiquated rule that nobody knew about.
Speaker 1: So it's don't fake outrage to me. But I mean,
Speaker 1: maybe this was the inevitable conclusion with Jim Harbaugh. This
Speaker 1: is his personality. Maybe this was the inevitable conclusion. Is
Speaker 1: that it was. And you see this all the time
Speaker 1: with certain people, like it's just not going to end well.
Speaker 1: And people in my business, I can name names of
Speaker 1: people who are talented but can be toxic, can be difficult.
Speaker 1: It doesn't consistently repeatedly, and well, it happens. So Harbaugh's
Speaker 1: going to be fine. He's either going to sign a
Speaker 1: lucrative contract at Michigan or he's going to go to
Speaker 1: the NFL, make a lot of money and be very
Speaker 1: successful there. But and I don't think it's necessarily a
Speaker 1: bad move to win as the conference expands and gets
Speaker 1: more difficult, to jet us in the Big Ten and
Speaker 1: move on. I don't think that's the worst idea in
Speaker 1: the world. Timing is everything, and this may be the time.
Speaker 1: I don't see anybody going forward in the Big Ten
Speaker 1: going undefeated. I mean, if you have three or four
Speaker 1: road games, one at Penn State, one at Columbus, one
Speaker 1: in Seattle, and the wind in the rain. Seattle Huskies
Speaker 1: now have a great coach. Oregon has an outstanding coach.
Speaker 1: So there have been times that Washington and Oregon have
Speaker 1: been okay. Both now are excellent, and both, especially Washington
Speaker 1: coach Caitlin de Boor, I don't think he's a ladder climber.
Speaker 1: I think he could stay at Washington for twenty years.
Speaker 1: Dan Lanning may go back to the South. They'll be
Speaker 1: a bidding war for him because big personality he's I
Speaker 1: could see him leaving Oregon if somebody came up like
Speaker 1: a Mario Christobal and open up the pocketbook. But nobody's
Speaker 1: going undefeated in this conference going forward unless you get
Speaker 1: a very very workable schedule. I just don't see it.
Speaker 1: So maybe it's the time to leave the Big ten.
Speaker 1: But James Franklin can recruit, Ryan Day can recruit Oregon,
Speaker 1: Big Money can recruit. Washington always has good players. USC
Speaker 1: UCLA it is going to be a handful, So maybe
Speaker 1: it's time before I get to sharper square. I saw
Speaker 1: that the actors resolved their differences with the studios, so
Speaker 1: there was a director strike and that was the first
Speaker 1: one to be solved. The studios caved. Then there was
Speaker 1: the writer strike and it took a while, but eventually
Speaker 1: that was settled. Why did the actors, Why were they
Speaker 1: the last ones to get something they felt was a
Speaker 1: reasonable and fair offer because they're less important. I'll give
Speaker 1: you an example. I often my wife often will sit
Speaker 1: down and we'll watch an international movie. We don't know
Speaker 1: who the actors are. There's a streaming service called Acorn.
Speaker 1: It's like I think it's like the Netflix of England.
Speaker 1: I watch stuff all the time. I have no idea
Speaker 1: who the actors are. But if the writing is good,
Speaker 1: I'm locked TV movie, streaming show. I couldn't say the
Speaker 1: last time I watched a second episode or got through
Speaker 1: a movie, even with star actors, if the writing stinks,
Speaker 1: writing means more than acting. Now, in a perfect world,
Speaker 1: great actor, great writing, that's when you in the Oscars,
Speaker 1: That's when you in the Golden Globes. But I have
Speaker 1: two reasons I believe this. Number one is every great actor,
Speaker 1: Marlon Brando, Hanks, Denzel Ryan Gosling, Tom Cruise, They've all
Speaker 1: been in bad movies. You never say I'm not gonna
Speaker 1: watch that actor again, Morgan Freeman ed Norton. You never
Speaker 1: say that you blame the writing, because the writing makes
Speaker 1: the actor. Secondly, I've always had a theory that if
Speaker 1: an eight year old can do anything, it's not that difficult.
Speaker 1: An eight year old can't write a screenplay. An eight
Speaker 1: year old can't be an astronaut, run a movie studio,
Speaker 1: or direct a great film. You ever watch Stranger Things?
Speaker 1: Half the cast was eight year olds and it was fantastic.
Speaker 1: That's nothing against actors, but you can't write something that
Speaker 1: brilliant from an eight year old, you certainly can't direct it.
Speaker 1: There's child actors. Now, most become sad tales of woe
Speaker 1: in Hollywood, but there are plenty of child actors. Actors
Speaker 1: don't get me to a theater. Now, I'm not saying
Speaker 1: Michael Keaton doesn't get me to a show. Don Cheadle,
Speaker 1: Amy Adams ed Norton. I'm not saying that. I'm not
Speaker 1: saying actors don't have talent. I'm what I'm telling you is,
Speaker 1: though writers are more important. And in this entire strike,
Speaker 1: all these strikes, whoever wants the strike wins the strike.
Speaker 1: They wanted to clean the books up and the streaming services,
Speaker 1: and they made sure the directors and the writers. They
Speaker 1: took care of those two groups. First. I'm not anti actor.
Speaker 1: I'm really not. I don't know any actors, and I
Speaker 1: think actors are important. But writing runs the business. Writing
Speaker 1: gets me and keeps me in front of a theater
Speaker 1: or a TV regardless of who the actors are. I'm
Speaker 1: not anti actor, but if you're telling me, I've got
Speaker 1: a choice. Studios resolved their differences with the writers first.
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Speaker 1: at the volume to be a global company, and today
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Speaker 1: Chad Millman in our Sharper Square Segment CCO Action Network
Speaker 1: all aids provided by DraftKings is joining us from I
Speaker 1: think Copenhagen.
Speaker 2: It's pronounced Copenhagen.
Speaker 1: Sorry, yeah, yeah.
Speaker 2: Yes, I am in Copenhagen. This is your kind of town, brother,
Speaker 2: Like why why? It is a classy like it is
Speaker 2: full on first class opera. It is gorgeous. You can't
Speaker 2: find the streets, there can be no cars coming. If
Speaker 2: there is a don't walk sign, nobody's moving. It is
Speaker 2: like full of proper etiquette. The best restaurant town in
Speaker 2: the world, no joke. The best restaurant in the world,
Speaker 2: legendary called Noma, has been in Copenhagen for a generation.
Speaker 2: All the chefs who end up working at Noma stay
Speaker 2: in Copenhagen. Open restaurants like a bad restaurant is one
Speaker 2: Michelin Star Colin. Tonight, I went to a hole in
Speaker 2: the wall Italian place that was a ten course tasting
Speaker 2: menu that they were bad mouthing nutella because they're like
Speaker 2: hazel nut chocolate spread that they make was so good
Speaker 2: it should be illegal. Gorgeous, gorgeous town architecture is amazing,
Speaker 2: A great mix of classic, you know, medieval type of
Speaker 2: stuff with this beautiful modern architecture. It's just it's enchanting.
Speaker 2: I've been I've been overwhelmed, like just wonderful. Yeah.
Speaker 1: When my wife and I went to Florence, Italy, we
Speaker 1: I told her, I said, if you told me I
Speaker 1: had to spend six months a year here, I don't
Speaker 1: want to be there during tourist season. But the old
Speaker 1: World grace and the old world food, understanding of spirits. Yes,
Speaker 1: it's just an understanding of the architecture, how to treat people.
Speaker 1: Nobody's in a rush, nobody nobody's in a rush. It's
Speaker 1: just a quality. I've had friends that live in New
Speaker 1: York and Connecticut. I told my wife one of the
Speaker 1: reasons we bought that place in Rhode Island is I said,
Speaker 1: you know, at some point in my life, I want
Speaker 1: to do more European Travel and I can you know
Speaker 1: Boston Logan Airport's got a brand new international Yeah, what
Speaker 1: do you call it? Shuttle or area so terminal. So
Speaker 1: I'm jealous. And my wife spent some time in Copenhagen
Speaker 1: and her takeaway was it's just the coolest place she's
Speaker 1: ever been.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm stun You know, the company that bought Action
Speaker 2: Network a couple of years ago is based in Copenhagen,
Speaker 2: and I've been dying to go. We had a bunch
Speaker 2: of meetings here this week. I got in yesterday, we
Speaker 2: went to Last night was a Champions League game between
Speaker 2: Manchester United FC Copenhagen, and there was one red card
Speaker 2: against man United. There were seven goals, there were two
Speaker 2: heart attacks in the stands, there were two penalty kicks.
Speaker 2: F C Copenhagen won in the last ten minutes with
Speaker 2: two goals. And here's what's amazing, Like we were walking
Speaker 2: out of the stadium and people were commenting how little
Speaker 2: police presence there was. And not only that, if you
Speaker 2: ran into a police person, they would say, do you
Speaker 2: need help getting where you're going? It wasn't like billy
Speaker 2: clubbing you because you happen to be walking on the
Speaker 2: wrong side of the street. We're just trying to help
Speaker 2: you to get where you're going. It is a lovely, charming,
Speaker 2: enchanting town.
Speaker 1: Yeah, well I was going to go there anyway, but
Speaker 1: now you talk me into it. Listen, the company that
Speaker 1: bought you knows sports gambling. Yeah, last week was a terrible,
Speaker 1: audaciously bad week. I went two and three. My bad.
Speaker 1: I should have taken Herbert overs act. Nonetheless, I think
Speaker 1: this week there are more definitive there's more clarity in
Speaker 1: some of the sides I like. So let me start
Speaker 1: with this Debo's back. I could see the Niners being great,
Speaker 1: But if I get Trevor Lawrence at home and a
Speaker 1: field goal, I'm going to take it. I like Brock pretty,
Speaker 1: but we got film. Now there are limitations. I'm taking
Speaker 1: the better quarterback at home. Increasingly, the better quarterback is
Speaker 1: winning a lot of these games. I'm taking the Jag
Speaker 1: sharper square.
Speaker 2: So here's what's interesting, and we're going to get to
Speaker 2: this about good quarterbacks bad quarterbacks. It's the sharp side.
Speaker 2: The wise guys are on the Jags. The Jags have
Speaker 2: been very sneaky under the radar. Good right, they went
Speaker 2: to London they won a couple of games, they came
Speaker 2: back home, they won again. They're on a buy. They're
Speaker 2: six and two, they're leading the AFC South. They're right
Speaker 2: under that tier right right now. Everyone's saying, look at
Speaker 2: the Ravens, look at the Bengals, watch out for the Jags.
Speaker 2: And when you get the Niners on the road, historically
Speaker 2: as a favorite, they're not as good. And what you
Speaker 2: just said about brock Purty is what a lot of
Speaker 2: wise guys are thinking. There's film out on brock Purty. Now.
Speaker 2: The one thing that has been aligned with his bad
Speaker 2: streak has been the loss of Deebo Samuel and was
Speaker 2: he or was he not concussed in the last couple
Speaker 2: of games, and that sort of had an impact on
Speaker 2: how it was playing. So if you are betting on
Speaker 2: the Jags, you're buying Doug Peterson, You're buying Trevor Lawrence.
Speaker 2: You're buying the fact that Doug Peterson historically also a
Speaker 2: much better coach against the spread in the second half
Speaker 2: of the year. Trevor Lawrence last year year eighteen of
Speaker 2: his twenty eight touchdown passes second half of the year.
Speaker 2: We saw what he did in the playoffs against the Chargers.
Speaker 2: He has been a much better quarterback. Doug Peterson is
Speaker 2: a better coach because all of a sudden he's figuring
Speaker 2: out It's a little bit like Sean Payton in this way,
Speaker 2: he's figuring out what his team can do, and he's
Speaker 2: much more focused on how do I make this team
Speaker 2: improve quarter by quarter over the course of the season.
Speaker 2: And so this team has been getting better. Exactly the
Speaker 2: four week mark the team started to get better.
Speaker 1: All right. This is an interesting one because I do
Speaker 1: like Cincinnati a lot, but they go from the Bills
Speaker 1: and then they have the Ravens the following week. It's
Speaker 1: a sandwich game. Jamar Chase probably doesn't play. T Higgins
Speaker 1: is not practicing. Again, I think they're better than the Texans,
Speaker 1: but the Texans are getting a touchdown. It's a more
Speaker 1: than capable offense sandwich game for the Bengals. I would
Speaker 1: go Houston sharper square.
Speaker 2: So the wise guys like Houston when the numbers at seven,
Speaker 2: and we've talked about this before, right, like the value
Speaker 2: of that numbers. So at seven, the wise guys were
Speaker 2: betting Houston. They continue to be amazed at CJ. Stroud
Speaker 2: and his ability to move the ball down the field.
Speaker 2: Look what he did against Tampa in forty seconds, going
Speaker 2: seventy five yards for that game winning touchdown was really remarkable.
Speaker 2: The guy clearly understands what's happening at the NFL level
Speaker 2: and is the right guy for the Texans, which is
Speaker 2: why they bet the Texans at plus seven. But it
Speaker 2: got to six and a half and the wise guys
Speaker 2: took the Bengals again, So this is clearly about a number.
Speaker 2: They've decided that seven is the line of demarcation, and
Speaker 2: if they're going to get under seven, they're taking the Bengals.
Speaker 2: If they can get the touchdown, they're taking the Texans.
Speaker 1: So one of the things I know, I'm going to
Speaker 1: take Arizona plus one and a half. Here is why
Speaker 1: Kyler Murray is very aware of his image. He's not
Speaker 1: going to play and not be one hundred percent. Okay's
Speaker 1: little finicky on that, and he knows he's got to
Speaker 1: rehab his image. He's ready to play. So I get
Speaker 1: the Cardinals plus a point and a half. They're getting
Speaker 1: some of their other weapons back. I got nothing against Atlanta.
Speaker 1: I just don't think Taylor Heineke on the road should
Speaker 1: be a favorite here. Kyler Murray needs to rehab that image.
Speaker 1: These games mean a lot. He doesn't want Arizona to
Speaker 1: have to make a choice between he and Drake May
Speaker 1: and Caleb Williams. Right, Yes, I think Kyler's going to
Speaker 1: come out focused. I'll take the point in a half
Speaker 1: Sharper square sharp ish.
Speaker 2: The wise guys started betting this game when the Cardinals
Speaker 2: were two and a half point underdogs before the Kyler
Speaker 2: Murray announcement. Everyone's been tracking his progress, right, They've seen
Speaker 2: that he was practicing the past few weeks. He was
Speaker 2: practicing with the practice squad. They knew sort of there
Speaker 2: was an indication. If you're trading Josh Dobbs, Clinton tuone
Speaker 2: is playing the game, you're sort of giving away that
Speaker 2: game because you know Kyler Murray is going to be
Speaker 2: coming back in the next game. So the line was
Speaker 2: at two and a half. The wise Guy's pounded to
Speaker 2: the two and a half the news came out that
Speaker 2: Kyler Murray was going to be starting, it moved down
Speaker 2: to one and a half. Still think it's the right side.
Speaker 2: This Cardinals team, they are playing for again and their
Speaker 2: new coach, and they have been playing really hard. They
Speaker 2: don't have the talent. Kyler Murray obviously elevates that. I
Speaker 2: think there's also a lot of questions about it lineup.
Speaker 2: Like you said about Taylor Heineke, he was a favorite
Speaker 2: last week and kind of, you know, screwed the pooch
Speaker 2: a little bit. You don't want to bet Tyler Heineke
Speaker 2: as a favorite. He is the kind of guy where
Speaker 2: the variants is so high that chances are he will
Speaker 2: make that errant pass that you need him to be
Speaker 2: making and taking shots when they're underdogs. You don't want
Speaker 2: him to be making when their favorites. We saw this
Speaker 2: last week. I think the wise guys are betting against
Speaker 2: that again.
Speaker 1: My favorite underdog of the week, Although I don't love
Speaker 1: the line, I love that at minus one and a half,
Speaker 1: it's now two and a half to three is Detroit
Speaker 1: So short week for the Chargers Lions off of buy
Speaker 1: with an offensive driven coach and culture. I think this team,
Speaker 1: because they're very young, makes big leaps in improvement. Veteran
Speaker 1: teams don't young team week four to week nine, you
Speaker 1: can see a different football team. Detroit's young on a
Speaker 1: lot of those defensive spots, and they're getting better still.
Speaker 1: Stinging from the humiliating loss to the Ravens. They've got
Speaker 1: a lot to prove in the building. I think they're
Speaker 1: a really good team. I think the Chargers look good
Speaker 1: because of the Bears and the Jets offenses. I still
Speaker 1: think they're a dubious bunch. I take the Lions even
Speaker 1: at minus three, though not as strongly sharp as square.
Speaker 2: It's sharp, but it's getting to the edge because don't forget,
Speaker 2: part of being sharp is getting the best of the number.
Speaker 2: And this number on Sunday opened at Lions minus one.
Speaker 1: Yes, and that was the bet of the week to me.
Speaker 1: That's the better the week to me at minus one.
Speaker 2: And a lot of people were like, wait a second,
Speaker 2: that feels fishy, Like why are they giving me the
Speaker 2: Lions at minus one? You know it's going to be
Speaker 2: a public play, and this is sort of what I
Speaker 2: was referencing earlier. This year, the public is winning at
Speaker 2: a fifty seven percent clip. The second best in the
Speaker 2: past decade is twenty sixteen. We know the public normally
Speaker 2: does not win. We normally want to fade the public.
Speaker 2: With the Lions. You are betting on a public team,
Speaker 2: but sometimes you want to be on the public side.
Speaker 2: Like last week, we love the Eagles, they were the
Speaker 2: public side. We love the Chiefs, they were the public side.
Speaker 2: And so you sometimes it's okay to be on the
Speaker 2: public side if it's the right side. And in this case,
Speaker 2: the Lions are the right side.
Speaker 1: So here's two favorites. I'm not prone to go with favorites,
Speaker 1: but I do think I'll go back to my Lamar Jackson.
Speaker 1: NFC rant teams are overwhelmed when they see Lamar Jackson
Speaker 1: for the first time. He is seventeen and one against
Speaker 1: NFC teams, and Seattle was bailing water. That's a good team.
Speaker 1: Now minus six publicly embarrassed. They're going to make cutting
Speaker 1: down on turnovers a real issue here. Washington has sold
Speaker 1: off two of their best defensive linemen. Sam Howell's interesting.
Speaker 1: I would swallow the six at home with Seattle Sharper square.
Speaker 2: Yeah. See, it's an interesting game. We talk about executive decisions.
Speaker 2: Right last week, we made an executive decision. We're taken
Speaker 2: the Chiefs. This week, we're making an executive decision. We're
Speaker 2: taken Seattle. Number one bounce backspot teams in this scenario
Speaker 2: where they have lost by twenty points or more, the
Speaker 2: following week play against teams that didn't lose by twenty points.
Speaker 2: So anyone who didn't lose by twenty points or won
Speaker 2: the game, the team that lost the past five years
Speaker 2: sixty percent against the spread. You were getting a team
Speaker 2: in Washington that had lost one side of their defensive line.
Speaker 2: They lost the other side in Chase Young, they lost
Speaker 2: the other side in Montee Sweat. They happened to get
Speaker 2: what I like to call a dead cat bounce. In finance,
Speaker 2: there's a phrase if a company that has historically underperformed
Speaker 2: and all the metrics are showing that they will continue
Speaker 2: to underperform, all of a sudden gets a little bit
Speaker 2: of bump. It's called the deadcat bounce. The Commanders got
Speaker 2: their deadcat bounce last week because they happen to get
Speaker 2: lucky and be playing against the Patriots. Mac Jones cannot execute.
Speaker 2: So you got a quarterback in Sam how who can
Speaker 2: make the throws. You know, he's what is he second
Speaker 2: in the league in passing yardage right now? He's a
Speaker 2: good up and coming quarterback. Ron Rivera is a good
Speaker 2: underdog coach. But that was against a bad team. Now
Speaker 2: they're playing a good team at home that just got
Speaker 2: embarrassed with a good defense and a good running game
Speaker 2: going against the thirty first ranked rushing defense, and that
Speaker 2: was before they gave away their two best edge defenders.
Speaker 2: So yes, we're going to take Seattle here.
Speaker 1: Oh finally, I never do this, but I think Tommy
Speaker 1: DeVito is incapable of a touchdown drive if the Cowboys
Speaker 1: kick it up. Fumble interceptions certainly capable. I think Dallas
Speaker 1: wins forty four to nine. I would take Dallas minus sixteen.
Speaker 1: I think Giants of the worst offense in years with
Speaker 1: the Veto quarterbacking. You know, I don't lay these numbers.
Speaker 1: If I told you this game was twenty four to
Speaker 1: nothing in the first quarter, would you be shocked? I
Speaker 1: know it's not the sharp side. I'm taking Dallas.
Speaker 2: Dude. You to be surprised the amount of chatter I've
Speaker 2: heard about wise guys betting Dallas this week because they
Speaker 2: feel like this game could be fifty four to nothing,
Speaker 2: Like there's actually not a number that could be big enough.
Speaker 2: And sometimes you do. You lay the points when it's
Speaker 2: that clear. And don't forget dak as a as a
Speaker 2: favorite now again normally he's in like a say three
Speaker 2: to ten points.
Speaker 1: Final, but a home favorite.
Speaker 2: He's pretty good home favorite. We've said this, We've said
Speaker 2: this on the show, and it's why we liked the
Speaker 2: Eagles last week. I think the Cowboys are front runners.
Speaker 2: I think they when they are comfortable, they act like champions.
Speaker 2: They play like champions. When they face adversity, they cannot execute.
Speaker 2: This is a time where the Cowboys will convince themselves
Speaker 2: they are champions and can contend in the NFC, and
Speaker 2: it's their chance to show it.
Speaker 1: All right, now, we play the game where I'm going
Speaker 1: to give you a game I want you to talk
Speaker 1: me into because I want to watch it. And then
Speaker 1: what did I miss? Let's start with the Steelers. Packers.
Speaker 1: All of our odds provided by DraftKings. What's the current number?
Speaker 1: Talk me into a side here?
Speaker 2: All right? This is tough. The number is three, potentially
Speaker 2: going to be three and a half. The wise guys
Speaker 2: love the Packers in this spot. Look, Tomlin as a
Speaker 2: favorite is not the same as Tomlin as a dog.
Speaker 2: And this is a spot where the Steelers continue to win.
Speaker 2: They're a bit fraudulent. You look at their metrics. They
Speaker 2: shouldn't have the record they have, right Meanwhile, we do
Speaker 2: this thing called the Luck Rankings at Action Network that
Speaker 2: basically takes a lot of stats and a lot of
Speaker 2: unpredictability in the games and evens them out and gives
Speaker 2: you a metric that says, these are things that do
Speaker 2: not normally happen, but they skew people's perception of a team.
Speaker 2: Right now, the Steelers are the luckiest team in the NFL,
Speaker 2: and by the way, Steelers have been the luckiest team
Speaker 2: in the NFL three the past five years. Packers one
Speaker 2: of the unluckiest teams in the NFL. The difference between
Speaker 2: these two teams is twenty nine spots. So there's a
Speaker 2: lot of data there to tell you. I got to
Speaker 2: take the Packers here, and I don't like it, and
Speaker 2: I don't think you like it. But I do have
Speaker 2: some games that I think you might look at.
Speaker 1: I guess, okay, so now it's time for what did
Speaker 1: I miss?
Speaker 2: Now?
Speaker 1: I don't like this dumpster diving stuff. I'm a man
Speaker 1: that likes Copenhagen and elegant, so I don't stick my
Speaker 1: head in a dumpster very often. I did last week
Speaker 1: with the Jets and a clothes clamped on my head.
Speaker 1: I know this is this is the ugly portion. I
Speaker 1: think Josh Dobbs's story is a great story. I wonder
Speaker 1: if that comes to a close. I loved the story.
Speaker 1: So what did I miss? Chad Melman, give me the
Speaker 1: game I missed?
Speaker 2: These are games that Colin, the King and Queen of
Speaker 2: Denmark would love to bet. These games. They are so
Speaker 2: they are choice, they are so classy. Uh, They're just
Speaker 2: the best. How did we not you don't want a
Speaker 2: dumpster dive? How are we not talking about the Browns
Speaker 2: like this makes no sense to me because don't give
Speaker 2: me that look. Let me let me, let me say, okay, okay,
Speaker 2: I know you. You're afraid of betting against Lamar Jackson
Speaker 2: because Lamar Jackson has been so good and Lamar Jackson
Speaker 2: is finally on a path to win the MVP, and
Speaker 2: the Ravens look like they could be the most complete
Speaker 2: team in the NFL. The Browns have a much much
Speaker 2: better defense. The Browns have someone in Miles Garrett who
Speaker 2: is one of the most dominant players in the NFL.
Speaker 2: Not most dominant defensive player, literally most dominant player. You
Speaker 2: talk about a stat that ESPN does that is really
Speaker 2: cool called pass rush win rate. It basically says, how
Speaker 2: often when he's on the field is he making an
Speaker 2: impact as a pass rusher on plays right leads the
Speaker 2: league in pass rush win rate. Same thing when you
Speaker 2: talk about him against the run. If you talk about
Speaker 2: the Browns on defense overall, they are better in the
Speaker 2: Ravens at every metric. This is a dominant defense. And
Speaker 2: if you're talking about a divisional game, home teams in
Speaker 2: divisional games the past five years covering forty seven percent
Speaker 2: CLIP home favorites divisional games covering forty six percent CLIP.
Speaker 2: Lamar Jackson as a favorite of more than three and
Speaker 2: a half under five hundred for his career. John Harbaugh
Speaker 2: as a favorite of just as a favorite period under
Speaker 2: five hundred in his career. I am actually shocked that
Speaker 2: this line is where it's at, that it's gone from
Speaker 2: five to six in someplace of six and a half.
Speaker 2: If you're not taking the Browns, this is a game
Speaker 2: you can watch. You're gonna enjoy.
Speaker 1: It, That's right, It's gonna be fun. Well, my natural
Speaker 1: instinct is to take Cleveland. I'm just not sure I
Speaker 1: trust Deshaan Watson and the Ravens defense. I just don't.
Speaker 1: But we've said this before. It's one of the more
Speaker 1: simple plays if you have a capable quarterback and you're
Speaker 1: getting points as a divisional rival. I mean, we took
Speaker 1: we should have won it. We pushed, we took Stam
Speaker 1: Howell against Jalen Hurts and the game was in. I think, Philly,
Speaker 1: you just do it, just you just do it, as
Speaker 1: long as you're underdog. Sam Hall is more than capable
Speaker 1: at quarterback. We've seen New England beat Buffalo this year.
Speaker 1: You just do it. We've seen the Jets beat Buffalo.
Speaker 1: You just do it. So I believe me I have
Speaker 1: less trouble doing it. You that's a good side. That's
Speaker 1: a good side. All right, give me one more.
Speaker 2: How about the Denver Broncos.
Speaker 1: I thought about that at seven and a half.
Speaker 2: It's tasty, it's tasty. I'm eating that whole meal. That
Speaker 2: is the Copenhagen restaurant of bets on Monday.
Speaker 1: I mean, an offensive coach, a capable quarterback on a
Speaker 1: bye week. I thought about that. The other thing. Greg
Speaker 1: Cosel said something this week that I'd thought, but the
Speaker 1: film showed it. Buffalo is not nearly as talented now
Speaker 1: that they lost our top corner, top linebacker and a
Speaker 1: defensive liman. They're just not that talented a roster.
Speaker 2: They lost playmakers in every level of their defense. Josh
Speaker 2: Allen has to be perfect for them to win games,
Speaker 2: and even when he is. Meanwhile, the development of the
Speaker 2: Broncos defense, they've just been getting better. And this is
Speaker 2: another one of those things, right we talk about Doug Peterson,
Speaker 2: Sean Payton is on that level of Mike Tomlin, Bill Belichick,
Speaker 2: Mike Vrabel, coaches who you want to be betting on
Speaker 2: because over the past generation they're some of the most
Speaker 2: profitable coaches against the spread in the NFL. And I
Speaker 2: think there's some inflation here because people continue to think
Speaker 2: about the Broncos as being what the Broncos were the
Speaker 2: first three games when their defense was so bad. But look,
Speaker 2: if you look at DVOA, you know, very fancy advanced
Speaker 2: stat that takes into account a lot of different strength
Speaker 2: of schedule elements. DVOA for the Broncos defense the past
Speaker 2: three games thirteenth, DVA for the Bills offense thirty first.
Speaker 2: So we're talking about a team here that is just
Speaker 2: improving incrementally. Like people thought Patrick Mahomes had the flu
Speaker 2: and so that's why he didn't perform well in that
Speaker 2: game the Broncos won. But it turns out maybe the
Speaker 2: Broncos defense was just really good because Patrick Mahomes has
Speaker 2: been having his issues and they made him look even worse.
Speaker 2: So I think there's a lot of upside here. This
Speaker 2: is one of those classic pros Joe's games. The betting
Speaker 2: tickets meaning the betting public, the non professional betters predominantly
Speaker 2: on the bills the money. That's what the wise guys are.
Speaker 2: That's on the Broncos.
Speaker 1: Yeah. Finally, what airline are you flying? Did you fly
Speaker 1: from Hartford to Copenhagen or Amsterdam? Or did you fly
Speaker 1: but I fly Logan a lot? Where did you fly?
Speaker 1: What are you flying?
Speaker 2: Back? I flew out of JFK. But Colin, if I
Speaker 2: tell you what I'm flying, I get to deal with
Speaker 2: the proper razzi when I get back. I can't. I
Speaker 2: can't do that. I'm flying on SAS, which is Scandinavian
Speaker 2: Airlines and obviously serves you know Copenhagen and other Scandinavian countries.
Speaker 1: May I suggest at some point in your life you
Speaker 1: fly Swiss.
Speaker 2: Air I've heard it's lovely.
Speaker 1: It's lovely. Yes, that's what I is this the part of.
Speaker 2: The podcast where a lead media people turn off all
Speaker 2: of the listeners.
Speaker 1: No, because you don't have to aspiration first. Yeah, it's aspirational.
Speaker 1: We're like Joel Ostein with football's right, We're Tony Robbins
Speaker 1: without the real estate. We're just saying exactly, you can
Speaker 1: fly economy economy Swiss Air. It's still Swiss Air. So
Speaker 1: I fly. I try to do business so I can
Speaker 1: watch documentaries. Swiss Air is my favorite airline, even more
Speaker 1: than British Airline in Delta, Cathay, Pacific. I love Swiss Air.
Speaker 1: I'll have everything about it. It's elegant without being bougie.
Speaker 2: Do they give you a complimentary tobaroon candy.
Speaker 1: Bar, they give you champagne. They do give you chocolate, Yes,
Speaker 1: they do. They give you chocolate. I just I found it,
Speaker 1: and I I flew icelandic Air, which doesn't have a
Speaker 1: great international reputation to Raikovic, I gotta tell you though,
Speaker 1: my son and I loved it. It was fun. I
Speaker 1: like new airlines. I like new stuff. I'm for new stuff,
Speaker 1: and so I am too.
Speaker 2: I'm especially for new places. Those are the best.
Speaker 1: No, Hey, listen, it's you know, and I've said this,
Speaker 1: the you know, the lax is a zoo. But the
Speaker 1: international part of it's great, and I wish more Americans,
Speaker 1: myself included, did more international travel. You know, I've done
Speaker 1: so much Mexico, so much Canada. Uh so, I've done
Speaker 1: London three or four times. But it's I can't wait
Speaker 1: for the part of my life where I can do
Speaker 1: you know, a ten week, ten day, two week trip
Speaker 1: every May in August. It's not that far off to
Speaker 1: go to Europe. It's just fun. It's a different pace.
Speaker 1: I like the pace of Europe.
Speaker 2: Oh, I love it. And you know what I hope
Speaker 2: for you? Listen, kid, you keep working hard. You're gonna
Speaker 2: be able soon enough to scratch together enough Nichols. You
Speaker 2: can get over to you can get Europe if you
Speaker 2: want to. I will.
Speaker 1: I'm gonna make a point of it, all right, buddy,
Speaker 1: you enjoy Copenhagen. Great to hear from you, all right.
Speaker 2: I thought you air.
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