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Speaker 1: The volume. Don't miss the action this weekend when the

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Speaker 1: Indianapolis Colts and the New England Patriots head to Frankfurt

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Speaker 1: for the Frankfurt Games in Germany. All right, these games

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Speaker 1: air on the NFL network and stream on NFL Plus.

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Speaker 1: For a limited time, Verizon customers can get Netflix and

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Speaker 1: NFL Plus for just twenty five dollars a month. That's

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Speaker 1: an annual savings of one hundred and twenty dollars. Plus

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Speaker 1: save on subscriptions you already love like NFL Plus. With

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Speaker 1: NFL Plus Premium, you get access to live games on mobile,

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Speaker 1: NFL Red Zone, NFL Network, which means you can catch

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Speaker 1: games like the Colts and the Patriots in Germany at

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Speaker 1: the Frankfurt Games. Just go to Verizon dot com slash

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Speaker 1: Volume Verizon dot Com slash Volume to bundle and save

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Speaker 1: before the games. This offer end soon again. Verizon dot

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Speaker 1: Com Slash the Volume Plus Play access included for Verizon

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Speaker 1: returning subscribers of NFL Plus Premium and newer existing subscribers

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Speaker 1: of Netflix Premium. Not combinable with any other promos. Netflix

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Speaker 1: and NFL Plus Bundle subscription twenty five bucks a month

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Speaker 1: first service. Additional terms apply cancel anytime in Plus Play

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Speaker 1: Managed Dashboard savings based on Netflix Premium and NFL Plus

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Speaker 1: Premium monthly retail plan prices. All right, I had to

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Speaker 1: watch that god awful thing on Amazon. Very rarely do

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Speaker 1: I have sympathy for broadcasters who are well compensated for

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Speaker 1: talking football. But that was That was rough. The football

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Speaker 1: gods have been cruel to Amazon and Jeff Bezos. That

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Speaker 1: is hard to watch. But that was not insignificant. So

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Speaker 1: the Bears have some pieces. Most of the bad teams

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Speaker 1: in this league have pieces. The Giants are bad, but

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Speaker 1: I like their head coach, I like their left tackle.

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Speaker 1: I like Cavon Thiebaudeaux. They are parts of the Giants.

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Speaker 1: I like Washington's got a new owner. They have some

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Speaker 1: really interesting pieces at wide receiver and running back. Arizona's bad,

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Speaker 1: but they have Kyler Murray right, their new coach is

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Speaker 1: kind of interesting. Atlanta's got some offensive pieces. I know

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Speaker 1: they're bad. Same with Tampa Bay. Carolina is talentless. So

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Speaker 1: the Chicago Bears, by winning, don't have the first or

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Speaker 1: second pick of their own. They need Carolina to keep

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Speaker 1: losing because they have Carolina's pick, and Carolina plays Tampa twice,

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Speaker 1: Carolina plays Atlanta, I think they played Green Bay. They

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Speaker 1: get some of the dregs of the league, so Carolina

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Speaker 1: could stumble in to wins. I mean they beat Houston,

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Speaker 1: I don't. I mean it's a talentless offense. There is

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Speaker 1: Bryce Young doesn't look great. There is nothing to work with.

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Speaker 1: They don't have a number one receiver. They don't have

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Speaker 1: a number two receiver. I'm not sure they have a three.

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Speaker 1: Mingo looks like just a guy so tight end, running back,

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Speaker 1: wide receiver. They have no special players, no juice offensively.

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Speaker 1: But they play some of the weaker NFL teams down

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Speaker 1: the stretch. And remember, if the Bears don't get the

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Speaker 1: first pick, and right now again their pick doesn't look

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Speaker 1: like they will with a win, and Carolina want a

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Speaker 1: couple games now. They don't have the first or the

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Speaker 1: second pick, and there's only two locks at quarterback. Drake

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Speaker 1: May and Caleb Williams are really a prospects. Everybody else

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Speaker 1: has issues. Nobody thinks, you know, bow Nicks or Pennix

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Speaker 1: are going to walk into this league and take it

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Speaker 1: by storm. Those are guys that will be as good

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Speaker 1: as their surrounding talent, which is almost always the case anyway,

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Speaker 1: you know, save for your Lways and Andrew Lux and

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Speaker 1: Trevor Lawrence's, most guys are as good as their opportunity.

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Speaker 1: So and Chicago's got some good players Montese Sweat. I

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Speaker 1: like their running backs, DJ Moore, Cole Comet. Secondary's got

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Speaker 1: some young pieces. One of their tackles is rated very

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Speaker 1: high by PFF. Chicago's got some pieces. If they went

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Speaker 1: and got Ben Johnson, the offensive coordinator for the Lions,

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Speaker 1: and landed Caleb Williams or Drake May, let's say Drake May.

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Speaker 1: At this point. If Drake May is as good as

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Speaker 1: advertised with a good offensive coordinator, you know they've it

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Speaker 1: wouldn't surprise me in that division. I mean, Green Bay

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Speaker 1: didn't know who their quarterback is. Minnesota didn't know who

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Speaker 1: their quarterback is. Detroit's formidable, but I mean two of

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Speaker 1: the teams, don't you know, they're scratching their head on

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Speaker 1: what to do with the most important position in football.

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Speaker 1: So Chicago's got some pieces. N FC is weaker, their

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Speaker 1: division isn't terribly strong. They just need the right coach

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Speaker 1: and the right quarterback. So and it's nothing against Justin Fields,

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Speaker 1: but he is what the first round quarterback data provides

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Speaker 1: less than half make it misses too many games, wins

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Speaker 1: too few, doesn't seem when you watch a CJ. Stroud

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Speaker 1: walk in with that old line and that ownership, and

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Speaker 1: I know Justin Fields has a lot to overcome. The

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Speaker 1: mccaskeys are some of the I think second or third

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Speaker 1: poorest owners, front office, draft picks, head coach. It didn't

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Speaker 1: have a ton to work with. But he also can't

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Speaker 1: stay healthy. I mean, for twelve years, Eli Manning didn't

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Speaker 1: miss a single start. His running style got him hurt

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Speaker 1: at Ohio State, and it's getting him hurt in the NFL.

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Speaker 1: That's the reality of it. So you know, it's one

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Speaker 1: of the things about this league that if you're a

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Speaker 1: bad NBA team, it's really hard to turn it around.

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Speaker 1: Same in baseball, I mean, half the teams in baseball

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Speaker 1: just can't keep up financially. Half the teams in the

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Speaker 1: NBA just don't have the requisite talent. It's not that

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Speaker 1: way in the NFL. You get the right coach, you

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Speaker 1: get the right quarterback. There's enough surrounding pieces. With Chicago,

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Speaker 1: they can be just fine very quickly. Wouldn't surprise me

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Speaker 1: at all. Now they have an elite guy up front

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Speaker 1: in Montese Sweat. They have some nice weapons. Their running

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Speaker 1: backs are fine. They got some nice pieces. They like

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Speaker 1: their young secondary. They've hitting a couple of draft picks.

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Speaker 1: Hit on one of their offensive line picks. They're not

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Speaker 1: without talent. I mean again, they let Bill Polian run

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Speaker 1: their coaching search. Bill's old school went defensive coach. It's

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Speaker 1: not where I would have gone, But you know, I

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Speaker 1: always it's funny about it when you look around this league.

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Speaker 1: I think running the Volume has been really interesting because

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Speaker 1: when I first took my swing at the Volume, my

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Speaker 1: takeaway was I'm not going to pay myself. I'm going

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Speaker 1: to get really good management. And so you know, I didn't.

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Speaker 1: I don't take a check. I'm glad not to because

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Speaker 1: we have a really good staff. So having been in

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Speaker 1: this business for twenty five years. One of the things

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Speaker 1: I really recognized is there's a sea of money. You

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Speaker 1: can make money, but you got to get really good people.

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Speaker 1: Because I've worked for most of my career with really

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Speaker 1: good really good management, really good producers, and I've watched

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Speaker 1: people's career who are really talented circle to drain because

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Speaker 1: they have bad bosses. And so I think people just

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Speaker 1: don't understand it is not an even playing field. I mean,

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Speaker 1: if you go look at the NFC West, the Paul

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Speaker 1: Allen Fund, Jody and Paul Allen Fund, they're the second

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Speaker 1: richest owners in this league behind the Denver Broncos new owners.

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Speaker 1: So you have those owners, the York families loaded Stan

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Speaker 1: Kronk's top six to seven owner in terms of net worth,

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Speaker 1: and the Bidwells are some of the poorest owners in

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Speaker 1: the NFL. So the revenue, the ability to just go

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Speaker 1: buy players, everybody thinks, well, it's everybody's got the same

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Speaker 1: salary cap. Not everybody has the same money. There's a

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Speaker 1: huge gap between what Arizona can spend and what the Rams,

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Speaker 1: San Francisco and Seattle can spend. And I just don't

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Speaker 1: think people understand is that The reason the Bears have

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Speaker 1: been bad forever is they don't have good owners. They

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Speaker 1: don't have wealthy owners. They don't have good owners. They

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Speaker 1: have the oldest owner of Virginia McCaskey. In the entire NFL.

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Speaker 1: It's not a dynamic, vibrant ownership group. And that's what

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Speaker 1: holds everything back. I mean, just when they hired Matt Eberflus,

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Speaker 1: I mean, look around the league, look at the offensive coaches.

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Speaker 1: Look at who is flourishing. It's overwhelmingly offensive coaches. I mean,

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Speaker 1: right now, Mike McDaniels in Miami looks like they have

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Speaker 1: a chance if they can write the ship, win the division.

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Speaker 1: And then there's you know, Zach Taylor and Joe Burrow surging.

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Speaker 1: If not Cleveland offensive coach, Jacksonville offensive coach, Kansas City

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Speaker 1: offensive coach. Then you go over to the NFC Dallas

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Speaker 1: and Philadelphia offensive coach, Detroit Leeds their division offensive coach,

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Speaker 1: NFC West could be Kyle Shanahan. They have the best team,

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Speaker 1: I think, best roster offensive coach. So you know, and

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Speaker 1: they what are the Bears do? I mean, you're paying

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Speaker 1: attention at all, so, I you know, I just think

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Speaker 1: sometimes we forget there's all so much you can do.

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Speaker 1: The employees always get blamed for overwhelmingly for problems with

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Speaker 1: productivity or performance. At any company in America. You can't

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Speaker 1: overcome lousy ownership. You just can't. That's why when I

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Speaker 1: built the volume, it was like I was going to

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Speaker 1: go and find the best available people to run it.

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Speaker 1: We have an incredible staff, and it's made this voyage

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Speaker 1: two and a half years much easier than I thought

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Speaker 1: it would be. I don't have to overcome incompetence. I

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Speaker 1: walk in every day. I just had a meeting today

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Speaker 1: about some financials and about you know where we're headed,

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Speaker 1: and it's just an It's so nice to work with

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Speaker 1: smart people. Chicago has never once founded in nineteen twenty.

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Speaker 1: They've never once had the best quarterback in the league,

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Speaker 1: never in any decade, any era, arguably never in a

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Speaker 1: single year. Jay Cutler's are all time passing leader. You

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Speaker 1: can keep blaming all the coaches and the general managers,

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Speaker 1: but it's a really dysfunctional organization. My wife wants us

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Speaker 1: to live in Chicago, and I really do love it.

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Speaker 1: Don't love their winners, but I love it, and I'm like, honey,

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Speaker 1: I don't know if I can live at a city with

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Speaker 1: that bad of an NFL franchise, I don't know if

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Speaker 1: I can do it. It's under consideration, but I don't

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Speaker 1: know if I can do it. So I've taken a

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Speaker 1: very pro Jim Harbaugh stance, very pro Jim Harbaughs stance

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Speaker 1: on the advance scouting accusations. I don't think Harbaugh is

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Speaker 1: completely innocent. I just think advanced scouting is sort of nonsense.

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Speaker 1: It's a nineteen ninety four created rule that most of

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Speaker 1: you didn't know existed. That was to stop the separation

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Speaker 1: of have and have nots in college football financially, which

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Speaker 1: is a joke because it's always been more than any

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Speaker 1: sport in America, a sport of have and have nots.

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Speaker 1: The same teams that were good in the sixties were

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Speaker 1: good in the seventies and the eighties and the nineties,

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Speaker 1: the two thousands, twenty tens and now Alabama, Oklahoma's you know,

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Speaker 1: look around. It was the same teams, Michigan, Ohio State,

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Speaker 1: the same teams. Very few new college football powers. Oregon

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Speaker 1: because of Phil Knights money and vision is one of them.

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Speaker 1: Not many. I mean, Washington was good in the seventies,

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Speaker 1: Washington won a national title in the nineties. Washington is

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Speaker 1: good again. It's a lot of the same teams, Penn State, Michigan,

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Speaker 1: Ohio State. But I also know that Jim Harbaugh runs

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Speaker 1: really hot. He lasts about four years everywhere San Francisco, Stanford,

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Speaker 1: San Diego, and now he's at what like seven eight

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Speaker 1: years for Michigan, and Jim wears people out. I've known

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Speaker 1: multiple people who have worked with Jim Harbaugh and they

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Speaker 1: like Jim Harbaugh, but he runs really, really hot, and

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Speaker 1: over the course of his tenure. It's not a surprise

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Speaker 1: to me, which I reported a couple of days ago

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Speaker 1: on FS one, that Jim Harbaugh really polarizing guy has

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Speaker 1: a couple of enemies within the Michigan fan family, being

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Speaker 1: like donors and boosters, and these are billionaires and one

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Speaker 1: hundred millionaires and they want a lot of attention and

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Speaker 1: they want their way, and hardball is just not going

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Speaker 1: to give you that patent, the back and the Ada

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Speaker 1: boy that you want. So it doesn't surprise me that

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Speaker 1: this is, as I've been saying, an inside job. It

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Speaker 1: didn't come from Ohio State or Iowa, Purduer, Penn State.

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Speaker 1: It came from inside Michigan because through the years, I've

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Speaker 1: seen this time and time again, these college coaches, these

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Speaker 1: football coaches, their salaries are published, and there's a lot

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Speaker 1: of animosity in the building from other coaches who are

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Speaker 1: having to make cuts constantly because of the football program. Now,

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Speaker 1: football should be highly compensated. The only thing that makes

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Speaker 1: money consistently. Men's and women's basketball and football consistently make money.

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Speaker 1: Most everything loses gobs of money. Now you can go

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Speaker 1: to the South and the baseball teams make money, or

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Speaker 1: Yukon and the women's basketball makes big money. You know,

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Speaker 1: there are exceptions, of course, but basically, you know, basketball,

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Speaker 1: men's and women's can make a profit, and then the

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Speaker 1: football makes tons. So there's a lot of animosity and

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Speaker 1: envy inside these athletic departments. So it's not a surprise

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Speaker 1: that Harbaugh pissed somebody off. And in his personalities, you know,

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Speaker 1: he doesn't ingratiate himself to everybody. He's really focused, he's

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Speaker 1: very competitive, and you know, if you don't like him,

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Speaker 1: he doesn't care. So you know, that's just part of

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Speaker 1: who he is. It's part of what makes him great,

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Speaker 1: and it's sort of the burden of hiring Jim and

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Speaker 1: what you got to deal with Nick Saban very similar.

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Speaker 1: So it's not a surprise that somebody inside the Michigan

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Speaker 1: family is ticked off. But what I've been told is,

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Speaker 1: you know, more people knew inside Michigan than has been reported.

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Speaker 1: It's an inside job, somebody unhappy with Harbaugh, and I

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Speaker 1: mean to me, it probably initiates if this thing goes sideways,

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Speaker 1: it probably initiates Harball moving to the NFL. And it's

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Speaker 1: a very rare year where there's a lot of potentially

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Speaker 1: good jobs with excellent young college quarterbacks coming out, including

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Speaker 1: Harbaugh's own at Michigan. But I know what he did

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Speaker 1: was over the top. I've said from the very beginning.

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Speaker 1: Everybody speeds on the four or five in Los Angeles.

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Speaker 1: You know, it's it's sixty five. I go sixty nine

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Speaker 1: to seventy, right, you know everybody does every morning. When

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Speaker 1: I get out, even at five point fifty five in

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Speaker 1: the morning, it's crowded and everybody's flym driving seventy miles

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Speaker 1: an hour and I'm not passing anybody. Harbaugh was doing

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Speaker 1: ninety in a Maserati with sunglasses on, you know, like

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Speaker 1: it was over the top. I'm not denying that. I

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Speaker 1: just think it's an antiquated rule that nobody knew about.

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Speaker 1: So it's don't fake outrage to me. But I mean,

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Speaker 1: maybe this was the inevitable conclusion with Jim Harbaugh. This

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Speaker 1: is his personality. Maybe this was the inevitable conclusion. Is

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Speaker 1: that it was. And you see this all the time

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Speaker 1: with certain people, like it's just not going to end well.

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Speaker 1: And people in my business, I can name names of

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Speaker 1: people who are talented but can be toxic, can be difficult.

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Speaker 1: It doesn't consistently repeatedly, and well, it happens. So Harbaugh's

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Speaker 1: going to be fine. He's either going to sign a

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Speaker 1: lucrative contract at Michigan or he's going to go to

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Speaker 1: the NFL, make a lot of money and be very

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Speaker 1: successful there. But and I don't think it's necessarily a

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Speaker 1: bad move to win as the conference expands and gets

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Speaker 1: more difficult, to jet us in the Big Ten and

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Speaker 1: move on. I don't think that's the worst idea in

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Speaker 1: the world. Timing is everything, and this may be the time.

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Speaker 1: I don't see anybody going forward in the Big Ten

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Speaker 1: going undefeated. I mean, if you have three or four

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Speaker 1: road games, one at Penn State, one at Columbus, one

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Speaker 1: in Seattle, and the wind in the rain. Seattle Huskies

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Speaker 1: now have a great coach. Oregon has an outstanding coach.

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Speaker 1: So there have been times that Washington and Oregon have

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Speaker 1: been okay. Both now are excellent, and both, especially Washington

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Speaker 1: coach Caitlin de Boor, I don't think he's a ladder climber.

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Speaker 1: I think he could stay at Washington for twenty years.

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Speaker 1: Dan Lanning may go back to the South. They'll be

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Speaker 1: a bidding war for him because big personality he's I

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Speaker 1: could see him leaving Oregon if somebody came up like

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Speaker 1: a Mario Christobal and open up the pocketbook. But nobody's

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Speaker 1: going undefeated in this conference going forward unless you get

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Speaker 1: a very very workable schedule. I just don't see it.

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Speaker 1: So maybe it's the time to leave the Big ten.

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Speaker 1: But James Franklin can recruit, Ryan Day can recruit Oregon,

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Speaker 1: Big Money can recruit. Washington always has good players. USC

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Speaker 1: UCLA it is going to be a handful, So maybe

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Speaker 1: it's time before I get to sharper square. I saw

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Speaker 1: that the actors resolved their differences with the studios, so

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Speaker 1: there was a director strike and that was the first

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Speaker 1: one to be solved. The studios caved. Then there was

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Speaker 1: the writer strike and it took a while, but eventually

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Speaker 1: that was settled. Why did the actors, Why were they

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Speaker 1: the last ones to get something they felt was a

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Speaker 1: reasonable and fair offer because they're less important. I'll give

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Speaker 1: you an example. I often my wife often will sit

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Speaker 1: down and we'll watch an international movie. We don't know

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Speaker 1: who the actors are. There's a streaming service called Acorn.

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Speaker 1: It's like I think it's like the Netflix of England.

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Speaker 1: I watch stuff all the time. I have no idea

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Speaker 1: who the actors are. But if the writing is good,

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Speaker 1: I'm locked TV movie, streaming show. I couldn't say the

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Speaker 1: last time I watched a second episode or got through

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Speaker 1: a movie, even with star actors, if the writing stinks,

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Speaker 1: writing means more than acting. Now, in a perfect world,

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Speaker 1: great actor, great writing, that's when you in the Oscars,

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Speaker 1: That's when you in the Golden Globes. But I have

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Speaker 1: two reasons I believe this. Number one is every great actor,

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Speaker 1: Marlon Brando, Hanks, Denzel Ryan Gosling, Tom Cruise, They've all

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Speaker 1: been in bad movies. You never say I'm not gonna

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Speaker 1: watch that actor again, Morgan Freeman ed Norton. You never

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Speaker 1: say that you blame the writing, because the writing makes

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Speaker 1: the actor. Secondly, I've always had a theory that if

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Speaker 1: an eight year old can do anything, it's not that difficult.

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Speaker 1: An eight year old can't write a screenplay. An eight

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Speaker 1: year old can't be an astronaut, run a movie studio,

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Speaker 1: or direct a great film. You ever watch Stranger Things?

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Speaker 1: Half the cast was eight year olds and it was fantastic.

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Speaker 1: That's nothing against actors, but you can't write something that

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Speaker 1: brilliant from an eight year old, you certainly can't direct it.

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Speaker 1: There's child actors. Now, most become sad tales of woe

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Speaker 1: in Hollywood, but there are plenty of child actors. Actors

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Speaker 1: don't get me to a theater. Now, I'm not saying

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Speaker 1: Michael Keaton doesn't get me to a show. Don Cheadle,

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Speaker 1: Amy Adams ed Norton. I'm not saying that. I'm not

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Speaker 1: saying actors don't have talent. I'm what I'm telling you is,

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Speaker 1: though writers are more important. And in this entire strike,

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Speaker 1: all these strikes, whoever wants the strike wins the strike.

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Speaker 1: They wanted to clean the books up and the streaming services,

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Speaker 1: and they made sure the directors and the writers. They

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Speaker 1: took care of those two groups. First. I'm not anti actor.

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Speaker 1: I'm really not. I don't know any actors, and I

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Speaker 1: gets me and keeps me in front of a theater

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Speaker 1: not anti actor, but if you're telling me, I've got

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Speaker 1: a choice. Studios resolved their differences with the writers first.

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Speaker 1: think Copenhagen.

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Speaker 2: It's pronounced Copenhagen.

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Speaker 1: Sorry, yeah, yeah.

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Speaker 2: Yes, I am in Copenhagen. This is your kind of town, brother,

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Speaker 2: Like why why? It is a classy like it is

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Speaker 2: full on first class opera. It is gorgeous. You can't

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Speaker 2: find the streets, there can be no cars coming. If

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Speaker 2: there is a don't walk sign, nobody's moving. It is

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Speaker 2: like full of proper etiquette. The best restaurant town in

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Speaker 2: the world, no joke. The best restaurant in the world,

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Speaker 2: legendary called Noma, has been in Copenhagen for a generation.

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Speaker 2: All the chefs who end up working at Noma stay

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Speaker 2: in Copenhagen. Open restaurants like a bad restaurant is one

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Speaker 2: Michelin Star Colin. Tonight, I went to a hole in

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Speaker 2: the wall Italian place that was a ten course tasting

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Speaker 2: menu that they were bad mouthing nutella because they're like

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00:22:44,840 --> 00:22:48,879
Speaker 2: hazel nut chocolate spread that they make was so good

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Speaker 2: it should be illegal. Gorgeous, gorgeous town architecture is amazing,

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Speaker 2: A great mix of classic, you know, medieval type of

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Speaker 2: stuff with this beautiful modern architecture. It's just it's enchanting.

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Speaker 2: I've been I've been overwhelmed, like just wonderful. Yeah.

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Speaker 1: When my wife and I went to Florence, Italy, we

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Speaker 1: I told her, I said, if you told me I

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Speaker 1: had to spend six months a year here, I don't

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Speaker 1: want to be there during tourist season. But the old

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Speaker 1: World grace and the old world food, understanding of spirits. Yes,

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Speaker 1: it's just an understanding of the architecture, how to treat people.

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Speaker 1: Nobody's in a rush, nobody nobody's in a rush. It's

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Speaker 1: just a quality. I've had friends that live in New

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Speaker 1: York and Connecticut. I told my wife one of the

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Speaker 1: reasons we bought that place in Rhode Island is I said,

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Speaker 1: you know, at some point in my life, I want

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Speaker 1: to do more European Travel and I can you know

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00:23:49,720 --> 00:23:54,800
Speaker 1: Boston Logan Airport's got a brand new international Yeah, what

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00:23:54,840 --> 00:23:58,520
Speaker 1: do you call it? Shuttle or area so terminal. So

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Speaker 1: I'm jealous. And my wife spent some time in Copenhagen

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Speaker 1: and her takeaway was it's just the coolest place she's

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Speaker 1: ever been.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm stun You know, the company that bought Action

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Speaker 2: Network a couple of years ago is based in Copenhagen,

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Speaker 2: and I've been dying to go. We had a bunch

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Speaker 2: of meetings here this week. I got in yesterday, we

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Speaker 2: went to Last night was a Champions League game between

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Speaker 2: Manchester United FC Copenhagen, and there was one red card

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Speaker 2: against man United. There were seven goals, there were two

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Speaker 2: heart attacks in the stands, there were two penalty kicks.

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Speaker 2: F C Copenhagen won in the last ten minutes with

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Speaker 2: two goals. And here's what's amazing, Like we were walking

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Speaker 2: out of the stadium and people were commenting how little

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Speaker 2: police presence there was. And not only that, if you

424
00:24:51,200 --> 00:24:53,720
Speaker 2: ran into a police person, they would say, do you

425
00:24:53,760 --> 00:24:56,840
Speaker 2: need help getting where you're going? It wasn't like billy

426
00:24:56,880 --> 00:24:59,040
Speaker 2: clubbing you because you happen to be walking on the

427
00:24:59,080 --> 00:25:00,640
Speaker 2: wrong side of the street. We're just trying to help

428
00:25:00,640 --> 00:25:04,040
Speaker 2: you to get where you're going. It is a lovely, charming,

429
00:25:04,280 --> 00:25:05,119
Speaker 2: enchanting town.

430
00:25:05,720 --> 00:25:09,119
Speaker 1: Yeah, well I was going to go there anyway, but

431
00:25:09,200 --> 00:25:11,720
Speaker 1: now you talk me into it. Listen, the company that

432
00:25:11,760 --> 00:25:16,480
Speaker 1: bought you knows sports gambling. Yeah, last week was a terrible,

433
00:25:16,600 --> 00:25:19,320
Speaker 1: audaciously bad week. I went two and three. My bad.

434
00:25:19,359 --> 00:25:22,480
Speaker 1: I should have taken Herbert overs act. Nonetheless, I think

435
00:25:22,520 --> 00:25:26,239
Speaker 1: this week there are more definitive there's more clarity in

436
00:25:26,280 --> 00:25:28,080
Speaker 1: some of the sides I like. So let me start

437
00:25:28,119 --> 00:25:32,840
Speaker 1: with this Debo's back. I could see the Niners being great,

438
00:25:33,160 --> 00:25:36,359
Speaker 1: But if I get Trevor Lawrence at home and a

439
00:25:36,400 --> 00:25:40,200
Speaker 1: field goal, I'm going to take it. I like Brock pretty,

440
00:25:40,720 --> 00:25:43,880
Speaker 1: but we got film. Now there are limitations. I'm taking

441
00:25:43,920 --> 00:25:47,560
Speaker 1: the better quarterback at home. Increasingly, the better quarterback is

442
00:25:47,600 --> 00:25:50,960
Speaker 1: winning a lot of these games. I'm taking the Jag

443
00:25:51,000 --> 00:25:51,720
Speaker 1: sharper square.

444
00:25:52,320 --> 00:25:53,960
Speaker 2: So here's what's interesting, and we're going to get to

445
00:25:53,960 --> 00:25:56,840
Speaker 2: this about good quarterbacks bad quarterbacks. It's the sharp side.

446
00:25:57,080 --> 00:25:59,200
Speaker 2: The wise guys are on the Jags. The Jags have

447
00:25:59,280 --> 00:26:04,280
Speaker 2: been very sneaky under the radar. Good right, they went

448
00:26:04,320 --> 00:26:06,520
Speaker 2: to London they won a couple of games, they came

449
00:26:06,560 --> 00:26:08,720
Speaker 2: back home, they won again. They're on a buy. They're

450
00:26:08,760 --> 00:26:11,720
Speaker 2: six and two, they're leading the AFC South. They're right

451
00:26:11,880 --> 00:26:14,760
Speaker 2: under that tier right right now. Everyone's saying, look at

452
00:26:14,760 --> 00:26:18,240
Speaker 2: the Ravens, look at the Bengals, watch out for the Jags.

453
00:26:18,240 --> 00:26:21,560
Speaker 2: And when you get the Niners on the road, historically

454
00:26:21,680 --> 00:26:24,639
Speaker 2: as a favorite, they're not as good. And what you

455
00:26:24,680 --> 00:26:26,280
Speaker 2: just said about brock Purty is what a lot of

456
00:26:26,280 --> 00:26:29,720
Speaker 2: wise guys are thinking. There's film out on brock Purty. Now.

457
00:26:30,160 --> 00:26:34,480
Speaker 2: The one thing that has been aligned with his bad

458
00:26:34,600 --> 00:26:38,439
Speaker 2: streak has been the loss of Deebo Samuel and was

459
00:26:38,480 --> 00:26:41,400
Speaker 2: he or was he not concussed in the last couple

460
00:26:41,400 --> 00:26:44,199
Speaker 2: of games, and that sort of had an impact on

461
00:26:44,240 --> 00:26:46,560
Speaker 2: how it was playing. So if you are betting on

462
00:26:46,560 --> 00:26:50,240
Speaker 2: the Jags, you're buying Doug Peterson, You're buying Trevor Lawrence.

463
00:26:50,280 --> 00:26:53,840
Speaker 2: You're buying the fact that Doug Peterson historically also a

464
00:26:54,000 --> 00:26:58,000
Speaker 2: much better coach against the spread in the second half

465
00:26:58,000 --> 00:27:00,840
Speaker 2: of the year. Trevor Lawrence last year year eighteen of

466
00:27:00,880 --> 00:27:03,840
Speaker 2: his twenty eight touchdown passes second half of the year.

467
00:27:03,960 --> 00:27:06,600
Speaker 2: We saw what he did in the playoffs against the Chargers.

468
00:27:06,920 --> 00:27:11,440
Speaker 2: He has been a much better quarterback. Doug Peterson is

469
00:27:11,480 --> 00:27:13,639
Speaker 2: a better coach because all of a sudden he's figuring

470
00:27:13,680 --> 00:27:15,760
Speaker 2: out It's a little bit like Sean Payton in this way,

471
00:27:16,200 --> 00:27:18,320
Speaker 2: he's figuring out what his team can do, and he's

472
00:27:18,400 --> 00:27:20,240
Speaker 2: much more focused on how do I make this team

473
00:27:20,280 --> 00:27:22,919
Speaker 2: improve quarter by quarter over the course of the season.

474
00:27:23,280 --> 00:27:25,439
Speaker 2: And so this team has been getting better. Exactly the

475
00:27:25,480 --> 00:27:27,399
Speaker 2: four week mark the team started to get better.

476
00:27:28,119 --> 00:27:29,960
Speaker 1: All right. This is an interesting one because I do

477
00:27:30,080 --> 00:27:32,560
Speaker 1: like Cincinnati a lot, but they go from the Bills

478
00:27:32,720 --> 00:27:35,000
Speaker 1: and then they have the Ravens the following week. It's

479
00:27:35,000 --> 00:27:39,000
Speaker 1: a sandwich game. Jamar Chase probably doesn't play. T Higgins

480
00:27:39,040 --> 00:27:42,680
Speaker 1: is not practicing. Again, I think they're better than the Texans,

481
00:27:42,720 --> 00:27:45,080
Speaker 1: but the Texans are getting a touchdown. It's a more

482
00:27:45,119 --> 00:27:49,359
Speaker 1: than capable offense sandwich game for the Bengals. I would

483
00:27:49,400 --> 00:27:50,639
Speaker 1: go Houston sharper square.

484
00:27:51,320 --> 00:27:54,160
Speaker 2: So the wise guys like Houston when the numbers at seven,

485
00:27:54,200 --> 00:27:56,480
Speaker 2: and we've talked about this before, right, like the value

486
00:27:56,560 --> 00:27:59,920
Speaker 2: of that numbers. So at seven, the wise guys were

487
00:28:00,040 --> 00:28:04,080
Speaker 2: betting Houston. They continue to be amazed at CJ. Stroud

488
00:28:04,520 --> 00:28:06,760
Speaker 2: and his ability to move the ball down the field.

489
00:28:06,800 --> 00:28:10,280
Speaker 2: Look what he did against Tampa in forty seconds, going

490
00:28:10,320 --> 00:28:15,040
Speaker 2: seventy five yards for that game winning touchdown was really remarkable.

491
00:28:15,119 --> 00:28:18,400
Speaker 2: The guy clearly understands what's happening at the NFL level

492
00:28:18,400 --> 00:28:20,919
Speaker 2: and is the right guy for the Texans, which is

493
00:28:20,960 --> 00:28:25,000
Speaker 2: why they bet the Texans at plus seven. But it

494
00:28:25,040 --> 00:28:27,240
Speaker 2: got to six and a half and the wise guys

495
00:28:27,280 --> 00:28:30,280
Speaker 2: took the Bengals again, So this is clearly about a number.

496
00:28:30,280 --> 00:28:33,399
Speaker 2: They've decided that seven is the line of demarcation, and

497
00:28:33,400 --> 00:28:36,280
Speaker 2: if they're going to get under seven, they're taking the Bengals.

498
00:28:36,280 --> 00:28:39,000
Speaker 2: If they can get the touchdown, they're taking the Texans.

499
00:28:39,720 --> 00:28:42,120
Speaker 1: So one of the things I know, I'm going to

500
00:28:42,160 --> 00:28:44,040
Speaker 1: take Arizona plus one and a half. Here is why

501
00:28:44,120 --> 00:28:47,520
Speaker 1: Kyler Murray is very aware of his image. He's not

502
00:28:47,560 --> 00:28:50,320
Speaker 1: going to play and not be one hundred percent. Okay's

503
00:28:50,320 --> 00:28:53,200
Speaker 1: little finicky on that, and he knows he's got to

504
00:28:54,160 --> 00:28:57,760
Speaker 1: rehab his image. He's ready to play. So I get

505
00:28:57,760 --> 00:28:59,720
Speaker 1: the Cardinals plus a point and a half. They're getting

506
00:28:59,720 --> 00:29:03,360
Speaker 1: some of their other weapons back. I got nothing against Atlanta.

507
00:29:03,400 --> 00:29:06,280
Speaker 1: I just don't think Taylor Heineke on the road should

508
00:29:06,280 --> 00:29:10,520
Speaker 1: be a favorite here. Kyler Murray needs to rehab that image.

509
00:29:11,040 --> 00:29:14,080
Speaker 1: These games mean a lot. He doesn't want Arizona to

510
00:29:14,080 --> 00:29:16,680
Speaker 1: have to make a choice between he and Drake May

511
00:29:16,920 --> 00:29:20,800
Speaker 1: and Caleb Williams. Right, Yes, I think Kyler's going to

512
00:29:20,880 --> 00:29:23,240
Speaker 1: come out focused. I'll take the point in a half

513
00:29:23,360 --> 00:29:26,440
Speaker 1: Sharper square sharp ish.

514
00:29:26,840 --> 00:29:30,560
Speaker 2: The wise guys started betting this game when the Cardinals

515
00:29:30,600 --> 00:29:33,640
Speaker 2: were two and a half point underdogs before the Kyler

516
00:29:33,680 --> 00:29:37,400
Speaker 2: Murray announcement. Everyone's been tracking his progress, right, They've seen

517
00:29:37,440 --> 00:29:39,840
Speaker 2: that he was practicing the past few weeks. He was

518
00:29:39,880 --> 00:29:42,760
Speaker 2: practicing with the practice squad. They knew sort of there

519
00:29:42,840 --> 00:29:45,640
Speaker 2: was an indication. If you're trading Josh Dobbs, Clinton tuone

520
00:29:45,720 --> 00:29:47,720
Speaker 2: is playing the game, you're sort of giving away that

521
00:29:47,760 --> 00:29:49,560
Speaker 2: game because you know Kyler Murray is going to be

522
00:29:49,600 --> 00:29:51,400
Speaker 2: coming back in the next game. So the line was

523
00:29:51,440 --> 00:29:53,040
Speaker 2: at two and a half. The wise Guy's pounded to

524
00:29:53,080 --> 00:29:55,640
Speaker 2: the two and a half the news came out that

525
00:29:55,720 --> 00:29:58,400
Speaker 2: Kyler Murray was going to be starting, it moved down

526
00:29:58,840 --> 00:30:01,400
Speaker 2: to one and a half. Still think it's the right side.

527
00:30:01,560 --> 00:30:04,760
Speaker 2: This Cardinals team, they are playing for again and their

528
00:30:04,800 --> 00:30:07,280
Speaker 2: new coach, and they have been playing really hard. They

529
00:30:07,280 --> 00:30:10,320
Speaker 2: don't have the talent. Kyler Murray obviously elevates that. I

530
00:30:10,320 --> 00:30:12,120
Speaker 2: think there's also a lot of questions about it lineup.

531
00:30:12,120 --> 00:30:14,360
Speaker 2: Like you said about Taylor Heineke, he was a favorite

532
00:30:14,400 --> 00:30:17,720
Speaker 2: last week and kind of, you know, screwed the pooch

533
00:30:17,760 --> 00:30:19,720
Speaker 2: a little bit. You don't want to bet Tyler Heineke

534
00:30:20,400 --> 00:30:22,520
Speaker 2: as a favorite. He is the kind of guy where

535
00:30:22,520 --> 00:30:25,960
Speaker 2: the variants is so high that chances are he will

536
00:30:26,000 --> 00:30:28,640
Speaker 2: make that errant pass that you need him to be

537
00:30:28,720 --> 00:30:31,880
Speaker 2: making and taking shots when they're underdogs. You don't want

538
00:30:31,920 --> 00:30:34,200
Speaker 2: him to be making when their favorites. We saw this

539
00:30:34,280 --> 00:30:36,960
Speaker 2: last week. I think the wise guys are betting against

540
00:30:37,000 --> 00:30:37,400
Speaker 2: that again.

541
00:30:38,200 --> 00:30:40,520
Speaker 1: My favorite underdog of the week, Although I don't love

542
00:30:40,600 --> 00:30:42,800
Speaker 1: the line, I love that at minus one and a half,

543
00:30:42,840 --> 00:30:45,000
Speaker 1: it's now two and a half to three is Detroit

544
00:30:45,600 --> 00:30:48,800
Speaker 1: So short week for the Chargers Lions off of buy

545
00:30:49,040 --> 00:30:53,920
Speaker 1: with an offensive driven coach and culture. I think this team,

546
00:30:53,960 --> 00:30:58,120
Speaker 1: because they're very young, makes big leaps in improvement. Veteran

547
00:30:58,200 --> 00:31:01,920
Speaker 1: teams don't young team week four to week nine, you

548
00:31:01,920 --> 00:31:04,720
Speaker 1: can see a different football team. Detroit's young on a

549
00:31:04,720 --> 00:31:08,960
Speaker 1: lot of those defensive spots, and they're getting better still.

550
00:31:09,200 --> 00:31:12,400
Speaker 1: Stinging from the humiliating loss to the Ravens. They've got

551
00:31:12,440 --> 00:31:14,280
Speaker 1: a lot to prove in the building. I think they're

552
00:31:14,320 --> 00:31:17,080
Speaker 1: a really good team. I think the Chargers look good

553
00:31:17,160 --> 00:31:19,680
Speaker 1: because of the Bears and the Jets offenses. I still

554
00:31:19,720 --> 00:31:22,800
Speaker 1: think they're a dubious bunch. I take the Lions even

555
00:31:22,840 --> 00:31:25,680
Speaker 1: at minus three, though not as strongly sharp as square.

556
00:31:26,360 --> 00:31:29,479
Speaker 2: It's sharp, but it's getting to the edge because don't forget,

557
00:31:29,880 --> 00:31:32,720
Speaker 2: part of being sharp is getting the best of the number.

558
00:31:33,120 --> 00:31:37,560
Speaker 2: And this number on Sunday opened at Lions minus one.

559
00:31:37,920 --> 00:31:40,760
Speaker 1: Yes, and that was the bet of the week to me.

560
00:31:40,800 --> 00:31:43,680
Speaker 1: That's the better the week to me at minus one.

561
00:31:43,840 --> 00:31:45,640
Speaker 2: And a lot of people were like, wait a second,

562
00:31:45,800 --> 00:31:49,560
Speaker 2: that feels fishy, Like why are they giving me the

563
00:31:49,600 --> 00:31:52,840
Speaker 2: Lions at minus one? You know it's going to be

564
00:31:52,880 --> 00:31:55,719
Speaker 2: a public play, and this is sort of what I

565
00:31:55,760 --> 00:32:01,120
Speaker 2: was referencing earlier. This year, the public is winning at

566
00:32:01,160 --> 00:32:05,880
Speaker 2: a fifty seven percent clip. The second best in the

567
00:32:05,920 --> 00:32:09,800
Speaker 2: past decade is twenty sixteen. We know the public normally

568
00:32:09,840 --> 00:32:12,600
Speaker 2: does not win. We normally want to fade the public.

569
00:32:12,920 --> 00:32:15,200
Speaker 2: With the Lions. You are betting on a public team,

570
00:32:15,200 --> 00:32:17,800
Speaker 2: but sometimes you want to be on the public side.

571
00:32:17,840 --> 00:32:20,680
Speaker 2: Like last week, we love the Eagles, they were the

572
00:32:20,680 --> 00:32:23,440
Speaker 2: public side. We love the Chiefs, they were the public side.

573
00:32:23,520 --> 00:32:25,440
Speaker 2: And so you sometimes it's okay to be on the

574
00:32:25,440 --> 00:32:28,520
Speaker 2: public side if it's the right side. And in this case,

575
00:32:28,640 --> 00:32:29,880
Speaker 2: the Lions are the right side.

576
00:32:30,360 --> 00:32:34,280
Speaker 1: So here's two favorites. I'm not prone to go with favorites,

577
00:32:34,320 --> 00:32:37,160
Speaker 1: but I do think I'll go back to my Lamar Jackson.

578
00:32:37,320 --> 00:32:41,760
Speaker 1: NFC rant teams are overwhelmed when they see Lamar Jackson

579
00:32:41,760 --> 00:32:43,800
Speaker 1: for the first time. He is seventeen and one against

580
00:32:43,840 --> 00:32:47,800
Speaker 1: NFC teams, and Seattle was bailing water. That's a good team.

581
00:32:48,160 --> 00:32:52,680
Speaker 1: Now minus six publicly embarrassed. They're going to make cutting

582
00:32:52,720 --> 00:32:56,520
Speaker 1: down on turnovers a real issue here. Washington has sold

583
00:32:56,560 --> 00:32:59,880
Speaker 1: off two of their best defensive linemen. Sam Howell's interesting.

584
00:33:00,440 --> 00:33:03,800
Speaker 1: I would swallow the six at home with Seattle Sharper square.

585
00:33:04,680 --> 00:33:09,440
Speaker 2: Yeah. See, it's an interesting game. We talk about executive decisions.

586
00:33:09,600 --> 00:33:13,040
Speaker 2: Right last week, we made an executive decision. We're taken

587
00:33:13,280 --> 00:33:17,000
Speaker 2: the Chiefs. This week, we're making an executive decision. We're

588
00:33:17,080 --> 00:33:23,040
Speaker 2: taken Seattle. Number one bounce backspot teams in this scenario

589
00:33:23,160 --> 00:33:26,600
Speaker 2: where they have lost by twenty points or more, the

590
00:33:26,720 --> 00:33:29,840
Speaker 2: following week play against teams that didn't lose by twenty points.

591
00:33:30,080 --> 00:33:32,200
Speaker 2: So anyone who didn't lose by twenty points or won

592
00:33:32,240 --> 00:33:34,720
Speaker 2: the game, the team that lost the past five years

593
00:33:34,800 --> 00:33:37,960
Speaker 2: sixty percent against the spread. You were getting a team

594
00:33:38,200 --> 00:33:43,000
Speaker 2: in Washington that had lost one side of their defensive line.

595
00:33:43,240 --> 00:33:46,360
Speaker 2: They lost the other side in Chase Young, they lost

596
00:33:46,360 --> 00:33:49,400
Speaker 2: the other side in Montee Sweat. They happened to get

597
00:33:49,480 --> 00:33:52,920
Speaker 2: what I like to call a dead cat bounce. In finance,

598
00:33:52,960 --> 00:33:56,720
Speaker 2: there's a phrase if a company that has historically underperformed

599
00:33:57,040 --> 00:33:59,760
Speaker 2: and all the metrics are showing that they will continue

600
00:33:59,800 --> 00:34:02,080
Speaker 2: to underperform, all of a sudden gets a little bit

601
00:34:02,120 --> 00:34:05,440
Speaker 2: of bump. It's called the deadcat bounce. The Commanders got

602
00:34:05,440 --> 00:34:08,160
Speaker 2: their deadcat bounce last week because they happen to get

603
00:34:08,239 --> 00:34:12,319
Speaker 2: lucky and be playing against the Patriots. Mac Jones cannot execute.

604
00:34:12,520 --> 00:34:14,520
Speaker 2: So you got a quarterback in Sam how who can

605
00:34:14,560 --> 00:34:17,640
Speaker 2: make the throws. You know, he's what is he second

606
00:34:17,640 --> 00:34:21,160
Speaker 2: in the league in passing yardage right now? He's a

607
00:34:21,239 --> 00:34:23,879
Speaker 2: good up and coming quarterback. Ron Rivera is a good

608
00:34:23,960 --> 00:34:26,920
Speaker 2: underdog coach. But that was against a bad team. Now

609
00:34:26,960 --> 00:34:30,200
Speaker 2: they're playing a good team at home that just got

610
00:34:30,239 --> 00:34:33,759
Speaker 2: embarrassed with a good defense and a good running game

611
00:34:34,000 --> 00:34:37,480
Speaker 2: going against the thirty first ranked rushing defense, and that

612
00:34:37,560 --> 00:34:40,080
Speaker 2: was before they gave away their two best edge defenders.

613
00:34:40,080 --> 00:34:42,680
Speaker 2: So yes, we're going to take Seattle here.

614
00:34:43,520 --> 00:34:46,480
Speaker 1: Oh finally, I never do this, but I think Tommy

615
00:34:46,480 --> 00:34:51,280
Speaker 1: DeVito is incapable of a touchdown drive if the Cowboys

616
00:34:51,360 --> 00:34:56,120
Speaker 1: kick it up. Fumble interceptions certainly capable. I think Dallas

617
00:34:56,160 --> 00:34:59,720
Speaker 1: wins forty four to nine. I would take Dallas minus sixteen.

618
00:34:59,719 --> 00:35:03,080
Speaker 1: I think Giants of the worst offense in years with

619
00:35:03,200 --> 00:35:05,760
Speaker 1: the Veto quarterbacking. You know, I don't lay these numbers.

620
00:35:06,200 --> 00:35:08,239
Speaker 1: If I told you this game was twenty four to

621
00:35:08,320 --> 00:35:11,239
Speaker 1: nothing in the first quarter, would you be shocked? I

622
00:35:11,320 --> 00:35:13,760
Speaker 1: know it's not the sharp side. I'm taking Dallas.

623
00:35:14,280 --> 00:35:18,040
Speaker 2: Dude. You to be surprised the amount of chatter I've

624
00:35:18,040 --> 00:35:22,400
Speaker 2: heard about wise guys betting Dallas this week because they

625
00:35:22,880 --> 00:35:26,440
Speaker 2: feel like this game could be fifty four to nothing,

626
00:35:26,600 --> 00:35:29,120
Speaker 2: Like there's actually not a number that could be big enough.

627
00:35:29,160 --> 00:35:32,600
Speaker 2: And sometimes you do. You lay the points when it's

628
00:35:32,640 --> 00:35:36,319
Speaker 2: that clear. And don't forget dak as a as a

629
00:35:36,360 --> 00:35:40,200
Speaker 2: favorite now again normally he's in like a say three

630
00:35:40,320 --> 00:35:41,239
Speaker 2: to ten points.

631
00:35:40,960 --> 00:35:42,360
Speaker 1: Final, but a home favorite.

632
00:35:42,360 --> 00:35:45,040
Speaker 2: He's pretty good home favorite. We've said this, We've said

633
00:35:45,080 --> 00:35:47,279
Speaker 2: this on the show, and it's why we liked the

634
00:35:47,320 --> 00:35:51,000
Speaker 2: Eagles last week. I think the Cowboys are front runners.

635
00:35:51,160 --> 00:35:55,600
Speaker 2: I think they when they are comfortable, they act like champions.

636
00:35:55,840 --> 00:35:59,920
Speaker 2: They play like champions. When they face adversity, they cannot execute.

637
00:36:00,320 --> 00:36:03,480
Speaker 2: This is a time where the Cowboys will convince themselves

638
00:36:04,080 --> 00:36:07,440
Speaker 2: they are champions and can contend in the NFC, and

639
00:36:07,480 --> 00:36:08,480
Speaker 2: it's their chance to show it.

640
00:36:09,880 --> 00:36:16,160
Speaker 1: All right, now, we play the game where I'm going

641
00:36:16,200 --> 00:36:17,680
Speaker 1: to give you a game I want you to talk

642
00:36:17,760 --> 00:36:22,239
Speaker 1: me into because I want to watch it. And then

643
00:36:22,360 --> 00:36:25,360
Speaker 1: what did I miss? Let's start with the Steelers. Packers.

644
00:36:27,200 --> 00:36:30,760
Speaker 1: All of our odds provided by DraftKings. What's the current number?

645
00:36:31,239 --> 00:36:33,080
Speaker 1: Talk me into a side here?

646
00:36:34,360 --> 00:36:39,239
Speaker 2: All right? This is tough. The number is three, potentially

647
00:36:39,280 --> 00:36:42,360
Speaker 2: going to be three and a half. The wise guys

648
00:36:42,520 --> 00:36:47,520
Speaker 2: love the Packers in this spot. Look, Tomlin as a

649
00:36:47,560 --> 00:36:51,240
Speaker 2: favorite is not the same as Tomlin as a dog.

650
00:36:51,840 --> 00:36:57,439
Speaker 2: And this is a spot where the Steelers continue to win.

651
00:36:58,440 --> 00:37:01,040
Speaker 2: They're a bit fraudulent. You look at their metrics. They

652
00:37:01,080 --> 00:37:05,080
Speaker 2: shouldn't have the record they have, right Meanwhile, we do

653
00:37:05,120 --> 00:37:08,799
Speaker 2: this thing called the Luck Rankings at Action Network that

654
00:37:08,840 --> 00:37:11,920
Speaker 2: basically takes a lot of stats and a lot of

655
00:37:12,360 --> 00:37:16,160
Speaker 2: unpredictability in the games and evens them out and gives

656
00:37:16,200 --> 00:37:19,640
Speaker 2: you a metric that says, these are things that do

657
00:37:19,680 --> 00:37:23,360
Speaker 2: not normally happen, but they skew people's perception of a team.

658
00:37:24,040 --> 00:37:28,160
Speaker 2: Right now, the Steelers are the luckiest team in the NFL,

659
00:37:28,200 --> 00:37:30,359
Speaker 2: and by the way, Steelers have been the luckiest team

660
00:37:30,360 --> 00:37:33,359
Speaker 2: in the NFL three the past five years. Packers one

661
00:37:33,360 --> 00:37:36,520
Speaker 2: of the unluckiest teams in the NFL. The difference between

662
00:37:36,560 --> 00:37:40,480
Speaker 2: these two teams is twenty nine spots. So there's a

663
00:37:40,640 --> 00:37:45,920
Speaker 2: lot of data there to tell you. I got to

664
00:37:45,960 --> 00:37:48,520
Speaker 2: take the Packers here, and I don't like it, and

665
00:37:48,560 --> 00:37:50,120
Speaker 2: I don't think you like it. But I do have

666
00:37:50,120 --> 00:37:52,359
Speaker 2: some games that I think you might look at.

667
00:37:52,880 --> 00:37:55,080
Speaker 1: I guess, okay, so now it's time for what did

668
00:37:55,080 --> 00:37:55,560
Speaker 1: I miss?

669
00:37:55,640 --> 00:37:55,759
Speaker 2: Now?

670
00:37:55,800 --> 00:37:58,080
Speaker 1: I don't like this dumpster diving stuff. I'm a man

671
00:37:58,120 --> 00:38:01,400
Speaker 1: that likes Copenhagen and elegant, so I don't stick my

672
00:38:01,480 --> 00:38:04,000
Speaker 1: head in a dumpster very often. I did last week

673
00:38:04,000 --> 00:38:06,440
Speaker 1: with the Jets and a clothes clamped on my head.

674
00:38:07,880 --> 00:38:10,520
Speaker 1: I know this is this is the ugly portion. I

675
00:38:10,520 --> 00:38:14,360
Speaker 1: think Josh Dobbs's story is a great story. I wonder

676
00:38:14,360 --> 00:38:16,800
Speaker 1: if that comes to a close. I loved the story.

677
00:38:17,120 --> 00:38:19,799
Speaker 1: So what did I miss? Chad Melman, give me the

678
00:38:19,840 --> 00:38:20,480
Speaker 1: game I missed?

679
00:38:21,080 --> 00:38:25,520
Speaker 2: These are games that Colin, the King and Queen of

680
00:38:25,560 --> 00:38:28,680
Speaker 2: Denmark would love to bet. These games. They are so

681
00:38:29,280 --> 00:38:34,520
Speaker 2: they are choice, they are so classy. Uh, They're just

682
00:38:34,560 --> 00:38:36,239
Speaker 2: the best. How did we not you don't want a

683
00:38:36,280 --> 00:38:38,840
Speaker 2: dumpster dive? How are we not talking about the Browns

684
00:38:39,400 --> 00:38:43,040
Speaker 2: like this makes no sense to me because don't give

685
00:38:43,040 --> 00:38:46,560
Speaker 2: me that look. Let me let me, let me say, okay, okay,

686
00:38:46,680 --> 00:38:51,120
Speaker 2: I know you. You're afraid of betting against Lamar Jackson

687
00:38:51,400 --> 00:38:54,480
Speaker 2: because Lamar Jackson has been so good and Lamar Jackson

688
00:38:54,560 --> 00:38:56,840
Speaker 2: is finally on a path to win the MVP, and

689
00:38:56,880 --> 00:38:59,520
Speaker 2: the Ravens look like they could be the most complete

690
00:38:59,520 --> 00:39:04,000
Speaker 2: team in the NFL. The Browns have a much much

691
00:39:04,080 --> 00:39:07,560
Speaker 2: better defense. The Browns have someone in Miles Garrett who

692
00:39:07,600 --> 00:39:09,800
Speaker 2: is one of the most dominant players in the NFL.

693
00:39:09,920 --> 00:39:15,520
Speaker 2: Not most dominant defensive player, literally most dominant player. You

694
00:39:15,600 --> 00:39:17,959
Speaker 2: talk about a stat that ESPN does that is really

695
00:39:18,000 --> 00:39:21,919
Speaker 2: cool called pass rush win rate. It basically says, how

696
00:39:21,960 --> 00:39:24,319
Speaker 2: often when he's on the field is he making an

697
00:39:24,320 --> 00:39:28,320
Speaker 2: impact as a pass rusher on plays right leads the

698
00:39:28,400 --> 00:39:31,960
Speaker 2: league in pass rush win rate. Same thing when you

699
00:39:32,000 --> 00:39:34,800
Speaker 2: talk about him against the run. If you talk about

700
00:39:35,120 --> 00:39:38,600
Speaker 2: the Browns on defense overall, they are better in the

701
00:39:38,680 --> 00:39:44,640
Speaker 2: Ravens at every metric. This is a dominant defense. And

702
00:39:44,640 --> 00:39:50,520
Speaker 2: if you're talking about a divisional game, home teams in

703
00:39:50,600 --> 00:39:55,480
Speaker 2: divisional games the past five years covering forty seven percent

704
00:39:55,520 --> 00:40:02,360
Speaker 2: CLIP home favorites divisional games covering forty six percent CLIP.

705
00:40:02,719 --> 00:40:05,279
Speaker 2: Lamar Jackson as a favorite of more than three and

706
00:40:05,320 --> 00:40:09,080
Speaker 2: a half under five hundred for his career. John Harbaugh

707
00:40:09,480 --> 00:40:14,239
Speaker 2: as a favorite of just as a favorite period under

708
00:40:14,280 --> 00:40:18,680
Speaker 2: five hundred in his career. I am actually shocked that

709
00:40:18,800 --> 00:40:21,560
Speaker 2: this line is where it's at, that it's gone from

710
00:40:21,600 --> 00:40:23,880
Speaker 2: five to six in someplace of six and a half.

711
00:40:24,520 --> 00:40:26,919
Speaker 2: If you're not taking the Browns, this is a game

712
00:40:26,960 --> 00:40:29,239
Speaker 2: you can watch. You're gonna enjoy.

713
00:40:29,000 --> 00:40:32,320
Speaker 1: It, That's right, It's gonna be fun. Well, my natural

714
00:40:32,360 --> 00:40:35,880
Speaker 1: instinct is to take Cleveland. I'm just not sure I

715
00:40:35,920 --> 00:40:39,400
Speaker 1: trust Deshaan Watson and the Ravens defense. I just don't.

716
00:40:39,480 --> 00:40:42,160
Speaker 1: But we've said this before. It's one of the more

717
00:40:42,200 --> 00:40:46,279
Speaker 1: simple plays if you have a capable quarterback and you're

718
00:40:46,280 --> 00:40:49,200
Speaker 1: getting points as a divisional rival. I mean, we took

719
00:40:49,360 --> 00:40:51,759
Speaker 1: we should have won it. We pushed, we took Stam

720
00:40:51,800 --> 00:40:55,320
Speaker 1: Howell against Jalen Hurts and the game was in. I think, Philly,

721
00:40:55,719 --> 00:40:58,640
Speaker 1: you just do it, just you just do it, as

722
00:40:58,680 --> 00:41:01,800
Speaker 1: long as you're underdog. Sam Hall is more than capable

723
00:41:01,840 --> 00:41:04,479
Speaker 1: at quarterback. We've seen New England beat Buffalo this year.

724
00:41:04,840 --> 00:41:07,719
Speaker 1: You just do it. We've seen the Jets beat Buffalo.

725
00:41:07,920 --> 00:41:10,520
Speaker 1: You just do it. So I believe me I have

726
00:41:10,600 --> 00:41:13,040
Speaker 1: less trouble doing it. You that's a good side. That's

727
00:41:13,040 --> 00:41:14,279
Speaker 1: a good side. All right, give me one more.

728
00:41:15,560 --> 00:41:19,080
Speaker 2: How about the Denver Broncos.

729
00:41:19,320 --> 00:41:20,960
Speaker 1: I thought about that at seven and a half.

730
00:41:21,000 --> 00:41:24,759
Speaker 2: It's tasty, it's tasty. I'm eating that whole meal. That

731
00:41:24,880 --> 00:41:29,720
Speaker 2: is the Copenhagen restaurant of bets on Monday.

732
00:41:29,760 --> 00:41:34,279
Speaker 1: I mean, an offensive coach, a capable quarterback on a

733
00:41:34,360 --> 00:41:36,959
Speaker 1: bye week. I thought about that. The other thing. Greg

734
00:41:37,000 --> 00:41:39,960
Speaker 1: Cosel said something this week that I'd thought, but the

735
00:41:40,000 --> 00:41:44,160
Speaker 1: film showed it. Buffalo is not nearly as talented now

736
00:41:44,200 --> 00:41:47,120
Speaker 1: that they lost our top corner, top linebacker and a

737
00:41:47,160 --> 00:41:50,040
Speaker 1: defensive liman. They're just not that talented a roster.

738
00:41:51,280 --> 00:41:55,040
Speaker 2: They lost playmakers in every level of their defense. Josh

739
00:41:55,040 --> 00:41:58,720
Speaker 2: Allen has to be perfect for them to win games,

740
00:41:58,800 --> 00:42:02,600
Speaker 2: and even when he is. Meanwhile, the development of the

741
00:42:02,600 --> 00:42:05,520
Speaker 2: Broncos defense, they've just been getting better. And this is

742
00:42:05,560 --> 00:42:07,880
Speaker 2: another one of those things, right we talk about Doug Peterson,

743
00:42:08,320 --> 00:42:13,520
Speaker 2: Sean Payton is on that level of Mike Tomlin, Bill Belichick,

744
00:42:13,920 --> 00:42:16,920
Speaker 2: Mike Vrabel, coaches who you want to be betting on

745
00:42:17,000 --> 00:42:19,399
Speaker 2: because over the past generation they're some of the most

746
00:42:19,480 --> 00:42:22,319
Speaker 2: profitable coaches against the spread in the NFL. And I

747
00:42:22,320 --> 00:42:24,680
Speaker 2: think there's some inflation here because people continue to think

748
00:42:24,680 --> 00:42:27,000
Speaker 2: about the Broncos as being what the Broncos were the

749
00:42:27,000 --> 00:42:29,399
Speaker 2: first three games when their defense was so bad. But look,

750
00:42:29,440 --> 00:42:33,040
Speaker 2: if you look at DVOA, you know, very fancy advanced

751
00:42:33,200 --> 00:42:36,040
Speaker 2: stat that takes into account a lot of different strength

752
00:42:36,040 --> 00:42:40,920
Speaker 2: of schedule elements. DVOA for the Broncos defense the past

753
00:42:40,920 --> 00:42:45,479
Speaker 2: three games thirteenth, DVA for the Bills offense thirty first.

754
00:42:45,840 --> 00:42:49,440
Speaker 2: So we're talking about a team here that is just

755
00:42:49,640 --> 00:42:54,720
Speaker 2: improving incrementally. Like people thought Patrick Mahomes had the flu

756
00:42:54,960 --> 00:42:57,120
Speaker 2: and so that's why he didn't perform well in that

757
00:42:57,160 --> 00:43:00,360
Speaker 2: game the Broncos won. But it turns out maybe the

758
00:43:00,360 --> 00:43:03,759
Speaker 2: Broncos defense was just really good because Patrick Mahomes has

759
00:43:03,800 --> 00:43:06,160
Speaker 2: been having his issues and they made him look even worse.

760
00:43:06,200 --> 00:43:09,879
Speaker 2: So I think there's a lot of upside here. This

761
00:43:09,920 --> 00:43:12,800
Speaker 2: is one of those classic pros Joe's games. The betting

762
00:43:12,840 --> 00:43:18,400
Speaker 2: tickets meaning the betting public, the non professional betters predominantly

763
00:43:18,400 --> 00:43:21,480
Speaker 2: on the bills the money. That's what the wise guys are.

764
00:43:21,880 --> 00:43:23,560
Speaker 2: That's on the Broncos.

765
00:43:24,440 --> 00:43:28,520
Speaker 1: Yeah. Finally, what airline are you flying? Did you fly

766
00:43:28,719 --> 00:43:32,759
Speaker 1: from Hartford to Copenhagen or Amsterdam? Or did you fly

767
00:43:32,880 --> 00:43:34,759
Speaker 1: but I fly Logan a lot? Where did you fly?

768
00:43:34,800 --> 00:43:35,360
Speaker 1: What are you flying?

769
00:43:35,400 --> 00:43:38,120
Speaker 2: Back? I flew out of JFK. But Colin, if I

770
00:43:38,120 --> 00:43:39,960
Speaker 2: tell you what I'm flying, I get to deal with

771
00:43:40,000 --> 00:43:42,680
Speaker 2: the proper razzi when I get back. I can't. I

772
00:43:42,719 --> 00:43:49,360
Speaker 2: can't do that. I'm flying on SAS, which is Scandinavian

773
00:43:49,640 --> 00:43:56,200
Speaker 2: Airlines and obviously serves you know Copenhagen and other Scandinavian countries.

774
00:43:56,640 --> 00:43:58,840
Speaker 1: May I suggest at some point in your life you

775
00:43:58,920 --> 00:44:00,120
Speaker 1: fly Swiss.

776
00:43:59,719 --> 00:44:02,680
Speaker 2: Air I've heard it's lovely.

777
00:44:03,000 --> 00:44:05,279
Speaker 1: It's lovely. Yes, that's what I is this the part of.

778
00:44:05,280 --> 00:44:10,000
Speaker 2: The podcast where a lead media people turn off all

779
00:44:10,040 --> 00:44:10,719
Speaker 2: of the listeners.

780
00:44:11,080 --> 00:44:15,399
Speaker 1: No, because you don't have to aspiration first. Yeah, it's aspirational.

781
00:44:15,480 --> 00:44:20,840
Speaker 1: We're like Joel Ostein with football's right, We're Tony Robbins

782
00:44:20,840 --> 00:44:24,239
Speaker 1: without the real estate. We're just saying exactly, you can

783
00:44:24,280 --> 00:44:29,239
Speaker 1: fly economy economy Swiss Air. It's still Swiss Air. So

784
00:44:29,320 --> 00:44:31,160
Speaker 1: I fly. I try to do business so I can

785
00:44:31,239 --> 00:44:35,879
Speaker 1: watch documentaries. Swiss Air is my favorite airline, even more

786
00:44:35,880 --> 00:44:41,399
Speaker 1: than British Airline in Delta, Cathay, Pacific. I love Swiss Air.

787
00:44:41,520 --> 00:44:45,000
Speaker 1: I'll have everything about it. It's elegant without being bougie.

788
00:44:45,520 --> 00:44:49,600
Speaker 2: Do they give you a complimentary tobaroon candy.

789
00:44:49,239 --> 00:44:55,680
Speaker 1: Bar, they give you champagne. They do give you chocolate, Yes,

790
00:44:55,760 --> 00:44:59,600
Speaker 1: they do. They give you chocolate. I just I found it,

791
00:44:59,640 --> 00:45:02,799
Speaker 1: and I I flew icelandic Air, which doesn't have a

792
00:45:02,800 --> 00:45:07,160
Speaker 1: great international reputation to Raikovic, I gotta tell you though,

793
00:45:07,600 --> 00:45:09,600
Speaker 1: my son and I loved it. It was fun. I

794
00:45:09,719 --> 00:45:12,600
Speaker 1: like new airlines. I like new stuff. I'm for new stuff,

795
00:45:13,200 --> 00:45:14,319
Speaker 1: and so I am too.

796
00:45:14,520 --> 00:45:18,400
Speaker 2: I'm especially for new places. Those are the best.

797
00:45:18,640 --> 00:45:21,279
Speaker 1: No, Hey, listen, it's you know, and I've said this,

798
00:45:21,440 --> 00:45:23,520
Speaker 1: the you know, the lax is a zoo. But the

799
00:45:23,520 --> 00:45:26,600
Speaker 1: international part of it's great, and I wish more Americans,

800
00:45:26,640 --> 00:45:29,640
Speaker 1: myself included, did more international travel. You know, I've done

801
00:45:29,680 --> 00:45:32,480
Speaker 1: so much Mexico, so much Canada. Uh so, I've done

802
00:45:32,520 --> 00:45:36,240
Speaker 1: London three or four times. But it's I can't wait

803
00:45:36,719 --> 00:45:38,719
Speaker 1: for the part of my life where I can do

804
00:45:39,880 --> 00:45:42,360
Speaker 1: you know, a ten week, ten day, two week trip

805
00:45:42,440 --> 00:45:44,840
Speaker 1: every May in August. It's not that far off to

806
00:45:44,880 --> 00:45:47,120
Speaker 1: go to Europe. It's just fun. It's a different pace.

807
00:45:47,320 --> 00:45:49,440
Speaker 1: I like the pace of Europe.

808
00:45:49,640 --> 00:45:51,279
Speaker 2: Oh, I love it. And you know what I hope

809
00:45:51,320 --> 00:45:55,239
Speaker 2: for you? Listen, kid, you keep working hard. You're gonna

810
00:45:55,239 --> 00:45:58,239
Speaker 2: be able soon enough to scratch together enough Nichols. You

811
00:45:58,280 --> 00:46:01,360
Speaker 2: can get over to you can get Europe if you

812
00:46:01,400 --> 00:46:02,560
Speaker 2: want to. I will.

813
00:46:02,560 --> 00:46:04,080
Speaker 1: I'm gonna make a point of it, all right, buddy,

814
00:46:04,160 --> 00:46:07,160
Speaker 1: you enjoy Copenhagen. Great to hear from you, all right.

815
00:46:07,600 --> 00:46:08,480
Speaker 2: I thought you air.

816
00:46:10,680 --> 00:46:16,319
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