WEBVTT - How Trump 2.0 Could Threaten Global Trade 0:00:00.480 --> 0:00:03.400 Fran You're just back from Davos, and the number one 0:00:03.880 --> 0:00:07.520 a gender item at least unofficially, seems from all your 0:00:07.680 --> 0:00:11.000 broadcasting and reporting to have been the Donald. Is that right? 0:00:12.400 --> 0:00:15.080 Yeah, he was thousands of miles away from the Swiss 0:00:15.120 --> 0:00:17.160 town of Davos. But I have to say it was 0:00:17.600 --> 0:00:19.919 the talk of the possible return of Donald Trump to 0:00:19.960 --> 0:00:23.239 the White House that everyone was talking about, and how 0:00:23.280 --> 0:00:25.680 you trump proof the economy, if you can trump proof 0:00:25.680 --> 0:00:28.720 the economy, the impact he could have on of course 0:00:28.720 --> 0:00:31.240 inflation and on globalization overall. 0:00:31.840 --> 0:00:34.000 And then there was a shift as well, so there 0:00:34.040 --> 0:00:38.240 was a sort of the dominant strain from Afar to 0:00:38.320 --> 0:00:40.080 us in London seemed to be that there was a 0:00:40.159 --> 0:00:43.040 kind of oh, right, we have to accept that he 0:00:43.120 --> 0:00:44.640 might be coming back to the White House. But then 0:00:44.680 --> 0:00:49.440 there seemed to be a rear guard. Yes, don't worry, 0:00:49.560 --> 0:00:52.199 it's all containable. There won't be much change. 0:00:52.479 --> 0:00:54.600 And some people are like adult with it with a 0:00:54.600 --> 0:00:57.280 little bit of humor. So we asked Christine Laguard about 0:00:57.640 --> 0:01:00.880 what a Trump presidency, you know, Trump to point oh means. 0:01:02.000 --> 0:01:05.000 She kind of made everyone laugh. I think the Gravil cupof. 0:01:04.680 --> 0:01:10.479 Coffee, it's for the American people to decide what they want. 0:01:10.640 --> 0:01:13.600 But obviously we are all concerned about it because the 0:01:13.720 --> 0:01:18.560 United States is the largest economy, the largest defense country 0:01:18.600 --> 0:01:19.080 in the world. 0:01:19.200 --> 0:01:22.119 But it's tricky from because Boris Johnson wrote a piece 0:01:22.200 --> 0:01:25.240 this week about actually all the evidence we have from 0:01:25.319 --> 0:01:27.160 last time Donald Trump was in powers that you know, 0:01:27.200 --> 0:01:29.960 this was a man we could do business with, and 0:01:30.000 --> 0:01:32.120 in it he singles out regard as you know, the 0:01:32.160 --> 0:01:35.920 sort of grand dam of Europe's left in his words 0:01:36.440 --> 0:01:39.160 or some metaphor similar, you know, her clutching her pearls 0:01:39.319 --> 0:01:41.560 was kind of what Donald Trump is there to do. 0:01:41.640 --> 0:01:43.160 He's there to kind of shake things up. 0:01:43.840 --> 0:01:45.840 And there's still so much we don't know about Donald Trump, 0:01:45.840 --> 0:01:48.080 who his running made is, but also what kind of 0:01:48.080 --> 0:01:52.160 composition of Congress he'll have. Adam Posen was talking about. 0:01:51.920 --> 0:01:55.600 That, Yeah, everything changes of Trump wins in mostly for 0:01:55.680 --> 0:01:59.200 bad ways. Speaking as an economists, I think the reality 0:01:59.280 --> 0:02:02.160 is the American electorate is going to be more strategic. 0:02:02.440 --> 0:02:05.080 If Trump wins, the Democrats will likely hold the House. 0:02:05.240 --> 0:02:08.200 If Biden wins, the Republicans will likely hold the Senate, 0:02:08.320 --> 0:02:10.840 and so it's going to be about the sort of 0:02:10.919 --> 0:02:14.000 stealth fiscal policy but if. 0:02:13.880 --> 0:02:16.160 You're a chief executive or if you're an investor, you're 0:02:16.160 --> 0:02:18.440 a policy maker, I think you probably have to game 0:02:18.480 --> 0:02:20.840 theory what it means in terms of some of the 0:02:20.880 --> 0:02:23.800 policies that sometimes do come out of the blue, to 0:02:23.880 --> 0:02:25.639 try and make sure that you have your house in order. 0:02:25.639 --> 0:02:28.800 I know there's also talks and rumors about European Union 0:02:28.840 --> 0:02:31.040 looking at leadership after the elections to make sure that 0:02:31.080 --> 0:02:34.760 they have someone strong enough to possible counter the US 0:02:34.919 --> 0:02:36.600 if Donald Trump is in the White House. And then 0:02:36.840 --> 0:02:39.360 we spoke to the Finance Minister of Germany and he 0:02:39.440 --> 0:02:41.000 just took issue with the fact that we're talking about 0:02:41.000 --> 0:02:41.960 Donald Trump too much. 0:02:42.320 --> 0:02:45.480 We are talking too much about Donald Trump in Europe, 0:02:45.720 --> 0:02:46.560 and we. 0:02:46.560 --> 0:02:51.960 Should be prepare ourselves for a possible second term for 0:02:52.080 --> 0:02:56.320 Donald Trump by fostering our European competitiveness. But whether you 0:02:56.320 --> 0:02:58.720 think we're talking about Donald Trump too much, we have 0:02:58.800 --> 0:03:01.880 to try and figure out what possible Trump presidency. The 0:03:01.919 --> 0:03:10.400 second time Round meets for the Economy. Welcome to in 0:03:10.440 --> 0:03:13.400 the City, Bloomberg's podcast, connecting you to the conversations and 0:03:13.440 --> 0:03:16.080 the stories shaping the world of finance and Francin. 0:03:15.760 --> 0:03:17.960 Laqua and I'm alegri Stratton. 0:03:18.240 --> 0:03:20.240 So this week a look at really what impact four 0:03:20.320 --> 0:03:22.000 more years of Trump and the White House will have 0:03:22.120 --> 0:03:24.800 on economies around the world with us Bloomberg Head of 0:03:24.800 --> 0:03:27.760 Economics and Government, Stephanie Fonder. Stephanie, thank you so much 0:03:27.760 --> 0:03:30.520 for joining us. We were together in Davos. We're definitely 0:03:30.880 --> 0:03:33.800 the decision makers were sizing up the global risks of 0:03:33.840 --> 0:03:35.000 another Trump presidency. 0:03:35.600 --> 0:03:38.560 Yeah, I think people are looking and realizing that this is, 0:03:38.920 --> 0:03:42.320 you know, a very serious possibility. And I think you 0:03:42.360 --> 0:03:46.320 saw a couple of strands. You saw a general kind 0:03:46.320 --> 0:03:48.880 of unease about the uncertainty that that was going to 0:03:48.880 --> 0:03:51.440 bring at a time when you know, heaven knows, we 0:03:51.480 --> 0:03:53.400 already have quite a lot of quite a lot of 0:03:53.440 --> 0:03:56.360 uncertainty in the global economy. But there was another interesting 0:03:56.400 --> 0:03:58.680 strand which I thought was, you know a lot of 0:03:58.680 --> 0:04:03.920 big business leaders, particularly who are based in the US, 0:04:04.720 --> 0:04:09.920 really wanting to get away from the kind of extreme 0:04:10.120 --> 0:04:12.880 rhetoric that you often hear on the campaign and certainly 0:04:12.920 --> 0:04:16.520 has been part of the Biden administration's pitch against Trump. 0:04:16.560 --> 0:04:18.640 You know that he's a risk to democracy and all 0:04:18.680 --> 0:04:20.080 of these things. I think that you know, the head 0:04:20.080 --> 0:04:24.680 of JP Morgan JB. Diamond specifically pushed back on that 0:04:24.960 --> 0:04:27.160 and was in a sense just I mean, you could 0:04:27.200 --> 0:04:29.360 say he was trying to normalize Trump. You're certainly trying 0:04:29.400 --> 0:04:32.960 to normalize the campaign between these two and say, look, 0:04:32.960 --> 0:04:35.720 we shouldn't think this is about preventing a dictatorship. We 0:04:35.760 --> 0:04:39.240 should consider these to be too serious politicians. 0:04:38.600 --> 0:04:40.360 Because I mean, the thing we've seen in the UK 0:04:40.640 --> 0:04:43.920 was obviously the Boris Johnson piece, which was a different 0:04:44.040 --> 0:04:47.159 version of the same Jamie Diamond weldview stuff, which was 0:04:47.200 --> 0:04:49.240 hold on a second, it might not be as bad 0:04:49.240 --> 0:04:51.200 as all that, and I think there's a number of 0:04:51.200 --> 0:04:53.800 reasons for it. The sort of really unkind observation is 0:04:54.480 --> 0:04:57.200 Trump was quite good for the wealthy, and Jamie Diamond's 0:04:57.200 --> 0:05:00.440 clearly wealthy, and indeed Boris Johnson's got quite wealthy recently. Two. 0:05:00.880 --> 0:05:03.159 But there's sort of less unkind and more sort of 0:05:03.320 --> 0:05:06.159 high minded version or interpretation of it is that you know, 0:05:06.240 --> 0:05:09.400 fundamentally Trump has a huge number of supporters and represents 0:05:09.920 --> 0:05:13.799 a view in America and indeed a view in other countries, 0:05:14.279 --> 0:05:18.120 and a constituency that feels quite aggrieved and quite voiceless, 0:05:18.600 --> 0:05:21.320 and so trying to connect with those people as well 0:05:21.440 --> 0:05:24.520 might be on the mind certainly, certainly of someone like 0:05:24.520 --> 0:05:25.239 Boris Johnson. 0:05:25.839 --> 0:05:28.720 Yeah, and it's just a desire to sort of try 0:05:28.760 --> 0:05:31.880 and feel like Donald Trump is still on the reservation 0:05:32.160 --> 0:05:35.240 and you know, actors as though he is still you know, 0:05:35.440 --> 0:05:39.160 a viable leader for America, given that he's you know, 0:05:39.240 --> 0:05:41.520 quite quite has a very good chance of being the 0:05:41.560 --> 0:05:43.680 next president. Any one of these leaders, any one of 0:05:43.680 --> 0:05:46.720 these business people will have to interact with him or 0:05:46.720 --> 0:05:49.640 his officials. So there's also just a basic kind of 0:05:49.640 --> 0:05:52.800 self preservation aspect that you know, any the world is 0:05:52.839 --> 0:05:54.479 such that you know, they will have to deal with 0:05:54.480 --> 0:05:57.159 whoever's the president. And if it looks like it might 0:05:57.279 --> 0:06:00.280 be Donald Trump, there's no point trying to suggest that 0:06:00.400 --> 0:06:03.200 you know it'll be you know that he is some 0:06:03.920 --> 0:06:06.520 impossible to deal with character, because you're going to have 0:06:06.560 --> 0:06:07.200 to deal with him. 0:06:08.240 --> 0:06:10.760 But Stephaniely, if you break down, you know, the impact 0:06:10.800 --> 0:06:14.360 on the economy, So is it almost automatically inflationary because 0:06:14.600 --> 0:06:18.720 it will be you know, less globalist, We could potentially 0:06:18.800 --> 0:06:22.279 see more supply chain disruption between the US and China. 0:06:22.960 --> 0:06:24.920 And so actually, if you're a European you're kind of 0:06:24.960 --> 0:06:26.800 stuck in the middle and you're not sure what to do. 0:06:27.440 --> 0:06:29.720 Yeah, it's interesting because the one thing he has said 0:06:30.520 --> 0:06:32.720 in the way of policies on the economic front is 0:06:32.760 --> 0:06:35.600 the ten percent tariff on all imported goods. And we 0:06:35.680 --> 0:06:38.360 actually did the numbers on that with Blimberg Economics the 0:06:38.480 --> 0:06:43.640 other day, and it's obviously, you know, as economists would say, 0:06:43.640 --> 0:06:46.960 it's not very good for real incomes and for consumers 0:06:47.160 --> 0:06:49.360 in the US. I think we found forty five out 0:06:49.400 --> 0:06:51.360 of fifty states where it was going to be a 0:06:51.440 --> 0:06:54.400 modest hit to real income because remember, you're even if 0:06:54.440 --> 0:06:58.360 you may have helped the old mining company or auto plant, 0:06:59.440 --> 0:07:01.520 your increase, seeing the price of all these imports that 0:07:01.600 --> 0:07:06.080 people buy and other businesses buy. Ironically, China does quite well, 0:07:06.160 --> 0:07:08.040 we notice, because of course there's lots of very high 0:07:08.120 --> 0:07:10.520 tariffs on China anyway, so it wouldn't necessarily be a 0:07:10.560 --> 0:07:13.520 big hit for them. But the countries like Mexico that 0:07:13.760 --> 0:07:18.000 Chinese exporters are competing with would suddenly face this tariff 0:07:18.040 --> 0:07:20.400 at least if he goes through on that promise of 0:07:20.480 --> 0:07:23.040 ten percent across the board. So you know, that kind 0:07:23.040 --> 0:07:26.840 of thing at the margin could sort of further disrupt 0:07:27.000 --> 0:07:31.960 global trade. Add to inflation a little bit in the US. 0:07:32.320 --> 0:07:36.200 But you know, as ever with these things, one it's 0:07:36.240 --> 0:07:40.560 still thinking more about the uncertainty and more about what 0:07:41.920 --> 0:07:45.640 kind of policies you'd be looking at across the board 0:07:45.880 --> 0:07:48.760 from the US. You know, we don't know really how 0:07:49.000 --> 0:07:51.320 what his stance against China will be. It could be 0:07:51.440 --> 0:07:54.320 that he'll be a bit more conciliatory with Shijinping than 0:07:54.440 --> 0:07:57.040 President Biden has been, given that he has a seem 0:07:57.080 --> 0:07:58.920 to have a bit of a portion for dictators. 0:08:00.000 --> 0:08:01.960 How difficult is it just to have a template on, 0:08:02.320 --> 0:08:05.120 you know, the economics under Donald Trump, because some of 0:08:05.120 --> 0:08:07.240 the policies were made on a whim, It was on 0:08:07.320 --> 0:08:10.480 social media, So because they're not pre announced, it's actually 0:08:10.560 --> 0:08:13.760 quite difficult to know right now what you know, he'll 0:08:13.800 --> 0:08:15.480 do on the Inflation Reduction Act and some of the 0:08:15.560 --> 0:08:19.280 lynchpins that are benefiting the US economy, although he may 0:08:19.320 --> 0:08:21.040 not agree with the underlying premise of it. 0:08:21.800 --> 0:08:23.760 Yeah, it's interesting. It's been so much part of and 0:08:23.840 --> 0:08:26.440 we saw that in New Hampshire in Iowa, A big 0:08:26.560 --> 0:08:30.640 part of the pitch to voters for Trump has been 0:08:30.680 --> 0:08:33.719 the comparison between you know, what their economic situation was 0:08:33.840 --> 0:08:36.040 under Trump versus what it's been under Biden. And of 0:08:36.120 --> 0:08:37.880 course we could argue there were lots of you know, 0:08:38.000 --> 0:08:40.719 the Putin's invasion of Ukraine had quite a lot to 0:08:40.800 --> 0:08:43.040 do with that, The timing of COVID had quite a 0:08:43.080 --> 0:08:46.079 lot to do with that contrast. But having made that 0:08:46.160 --> 0:08:50.360 big economic pitch, actually we're not hearing that much from 0:08:50.720 --> 0:08:53.319 Donald Trump in the way of new economic policies apart 0:08:53.360 --> 0:08:55.719 from the one I just talked about. In fact, he's 0:08:55.760 --> 0:08:58.960 focused more on, as far as we can see, increasing 0:08:59.040 --> 0:09:02.880 executive power, so try to reduce the influence of the 0:09:03.000 --> 0:09:07.360 individual departments and regulators in the US, so that would 0:09:07.800 --> 0:09:11.880 potentially suggest, you know, much less environmental regulation, and they're 0:09:11.880 --> 0:09:14.640 definitely a kind of wind down in the Inflation Reduction Act. 0:09:15.679 --> 0:09:19.760 We've heard a lot about immigration and potentially, you know, 0:09:19.880 --> 0:09:22.840 some thought about maybe using the using the American army 0:09:23.000 --> 0:09:28.360 on US soil to confront illegal immigration. So you know, 0:09:28.440 --> 0:09:30.199 there is a bit of a disconnect. But although a 0:09:30.240 --> 0:09:33.240 lot of his he's been sort of talking about Biden's 0:09:33.280 --> 0:09:37.079 economic failures, he hasn't been proposing a lot of concrete 0:09:37.640 --> 0:09:39.719 new economic policies that we could focus on. 0:09:40.640 --> 0:09:42.959 I think the other thing that's been to sort of 0:09:43.000 --> 0:09:44.640 bring it back to the UK. The other thing that 0:09:45.320 --> 0:09:47.640 I don't perhaps this week will be the first time 0:09:47.679 --> 0:09:50.480 people will start to process it is if we have 0:09:51.440 --> 0:09:53.280 an autumn election and I don't think and you know, 0:09:53.360 --> 0:09:54.960 none of us know, but if we have an automate election, 0:09:55.040 --> 0:09:57.240 which is time roughly around the same time as what 0:09:57.360 --> 0:10:00.760 we now think is quite likely to be Biden versus Trump, 0:10:01.360 --> 0:10:03.760 and you have more and more of this bellicose language 0:10:03.840 --> 0:10:07.880 that he is so fond of. I think firstly, you know, 0:10:08.040 --> 0:10:10.240 we are not used to having an election in this 0:10:10.320 --> 0:10:12.959 country which has got another election that's very relevant and 0:10:13.040 --> 0:10:17.199 important happening at the same time, it's suffusing and intermingling 0:10:17.280 --> 0:10:19.760 with the language and the debates that are being had 0:10:20.200 --> 0:10:23.079 in the UK and that are not completely irrelevant. So 0:10:23.160 --> 0:10:25.880 I think, firstly, that's the kind of the backdrop if 0:10:25.920 --> 0:10:29.199 you've got Trump saying repeatedly, are you better off now 0:10:29.280 --> 0:10:31.400 than you were four years ago? And that is a 0:10:31.760 --> 0:10:33.559 you know, a date but debating point as well that 0:10:33.600 --> 0:10:36.079 we'll play in our election. I think it is it 0:10:36.200 --> 0:10:38.520 is going to be unusual to have that sort of 0:10:38.600 --> 0:10:43.680 double narrative playing through our own potentially our own election. 0:10:44.800 --> 0:10:47.080 Yeah, and I have I often find I mean, there 0:10:47.160 --> 0:10:49.040 is an interesting way agro It's a bit like you know, 0:10:49.120 --> 0:10:51.839 we all watch, you know, the American TV kind of 0:10:52.200 --> 0:10:55.199 permeates our consciousness. And there's also been a sort of 0:10:55.240 --> 0:10:58.920 equivalent to that in economics that the big economic debates 0:10:59.200 --> 0:11:02.120 in the US we tend to sort of transposed onto 0:11:02.160 --> 0:11:06.480 the UK, like rising inequality or and and and other 0:11:06.600 --> 0:11:10.440 things that you know, and the flat real wages, which 0:11:10.440 --> 0:11:13.080 has been true in the US and actually less true 0:11:13.240 --> 0:11:15.480 in the UK. I think that would be the risk 0:11:15.559 --> 0:11:20.520 if you have kind of simultaneous parallel campaigns. I guess 0:11:20.520 --> 0:11:23.599 if that if the betting is potentially a couple, that 0:11:23.720 --> 0:11:27.040 the UK election would be two weeks after the presidential election, 0:11:27.280 --> 0:11:31.720 maybe in November, you could you could find that there 0:11:31.760 --> 0:11:35.280 were sort of people were importing debates from the from 0:11:35.320 --> 0:11:38.839 the US campaign that actually are less relevant for the UK. 0:11:39.080 --> 0:11:41.520 We haven't had a very good recovery from COVID like 0:11:42.720 --> 0:11:46.000 the US has had. We have a different kind of 0:11:46.080 --> 0:11:48.719 inflation problem. We certainly have a very different kind of 0:11:48.880 --> 0:11:52.040 energy situation. And yet you know, there's a there's a 0:11:52.120 --> 0:11:54.200 risk that will sort of find ourselves having the same 0:11:54.320 --> 0:11:55.920 arguments as they are having in the US. 0:11:56.160 --> 0:11:57.719 I think I think that all of that's true. I 0:11:57.880 --> 0:12:02.520 also think there would be being said and both politically 0:12:02.600 --> 0:12:06.439 big political leaders and Starma will come under different pressure 0:12:06.520 --> 0:12:09.360 to respond to them. So, you know, from from Sunk's perspective, 0:12:09.400 --> 0:12:12.160 you know this has been said in America, do you agree? 0:12:12.400 --> 0:12:15.160 And he'll have kind of one set of political calculations 0:12:15.200 --> 0:12:17.480 to go through. But the same will be true as Starma. 0:12:17.559 --> 0:12:20.160 If you know, he's looking like he's becoming the next 0:12:20.240 --> 0:12:23.199 prime minister, you know, he'll come under pressure from the 0:12:23.320 --> 0:12:25.319 left of his party to just you know, say this 0:12:25.440 --> 0:12:28.559 is outrageous how they et cetera structure, and he'll probably 0:12:28.880 --> 0:12:31.160 you know, need to keep quiet for the reasons we 0:12:31.360 --> 0:12:34.599 sort of started this podcast, which is people will have 0:12:34.720 --> 0:12:37.679 to work with each other in you know, twelve months time. 0:12:38.160 --> 0:12:40.319 Yeah, there's also an interesting thing if all the debate 0:12:40.600 --> 0:12:42.920 is about Bidenomics, or at least if there's quite a 0:12:42.960 --> 0:12:46.079 lot of debate about Bidenomics and whether it works, it 0:12:46.160 --> 0:12:49.560 sort of makes it a complicated argument for Keir Starmer, right, 0:12:49.600 --> 0:12:53.240 because you know, there's certainly been elements of the biden 0:12:53.280 --> 0:12:57.880 approach to the economy that the Rachel Reeves and others 0:12:57.920 --> 0:13:00.600 in the London on the labor side are trying to emulate. 0:13:01.679 --> 0:13:05.480 But if they're also trying to kind of distance themselves 0:13:05.520 --> 0:13:07.520 from a president who looks like he might be about 0:13:07.559 --> 0:13:09.480 to lose, I think that too could be a bit 0:13:09.760 --> 0:13:12.600 a bit complicated. But then I mean, that's that's a problem. 0:13:12.760 --> 0:13:15.880 You know, there's equally a problem for Donald Trump that 0:13:15.960 --> 0:13:19.079 you know, in effect, lots of the Biden aconomics policies 0:13:19.240 --> 0:13:22.040 are actually a sort of you know, putting into practice 0:13:22.160 --> 0:13:24.439 things that he had talked about, you know, wanting the 0:13:24.559 --> 0:13:27.080 US to be more competitive. Well, actually, arguably the Biden 0:13:27.080 --> 0:13:31.680 administration has done more to invest in infrastructure and American 0:13:31.760 --> 0:13:34.520 businesses than Donald Trump did, So I think, you know, 0:13:34.559 --> 0:13:38.160 they'll be there'll be an interesting development debate on that 0:13:38.240 --> 0:13:41.600 happening on the other side of the Atlantic as well, Stephanie. 0:13:41.760 --> 0:13:44.240 If Donald Trump actually does better in the polls in 0:13:44.320 --> 0:13:46.640 the next couple of months, does it shift the conversation 0:13:46.760 --> 0:13:50.280 in the UK more to the right, or do investors 0:13:50.320 --> 0:13:52.080 look at the UK and say, look, you know, given 0:13:52.120 --> 0:13:54.400 the two parties and the fact that they're not that 0:13:54.520 --> 0:13:57.880 far apart in terms of policies, the UK could look 0:13:58.000 --> 0:13:59.080 a bit like a safe haven. 0:14:00.120 --> 0:14:02.120 I think this, I mean, I think the UK looking 0:14:02.559 --> 0:14:06.720 like it's sort of bucking the trend with two quite normal, 0:14:07.120 --> 0:14:12.720 relatively boring contenders for number ten, I think could be helpful. 0:14:12.840 --> 0:14:15.920 I mean, as as you know, Frans seen in recent years, 0:14:15.960 --> 0:14:18.240 it's been quite hard to persuade people of the merits 0:14:18.280 --> 0:14:20.360 of the UK stock market, but I think there could 0:14:20.440 --> 0:14:22.560 certainly be an element of that that if you feel 0:14:22.640 --> 0:14:26.760 like you know, US politics has gone down this rather 0:14:26.960 --> 0:14:31.720 sort of unedifying path yet again, and the UK has 0:14:31.800 --> 0:14:35.640 actually kind of rescued itself from Liz Trust and other 0:14:35.960 --> 0:14:39.840 other craziness, and it's actually now got two very sort 0:14:39.880 --> 0:14:43.480 of traditional, relatively middle of the road politicians, at least 0:14:43.520 --> 0:14:44.920 in the way that they present themselves. 0:14:45.120 --> 0:14:47.920 If you're an Eastern European country right now, you are 0:14:48.080 --> 0:14:52.240 probably quivering because of the the dynaut the O, the 0:14:52.320 --> 0:14:55.240 things he's on the record about saying around NAT spending 0:14:55.680 --> 0:14:58.600 and defending Ukraine. I mean, I think we're having this 0:14:58.720 --> 0:15:02.520 debate now in London focused on economics, but the defense 0:15:02.600 --> 0:15:07.000 aspect and possibly more isolationist stanced from Donald Trump, whether 0:15:07.080 --> 0:15:08.840 whether or not it comes to be true, because he 0:15:08.920 --> 0:15:12.320 has totally capable of saying one thing and then doing 0:15:12.320 --> 0:15:14.920 completely the other. But people talked about it being a 0:15:15.000 --> 0:15:17.560 nightmare scenario for them, haven't they from Yeah. 0:15:17.560 --> 0:15:17.800 They have. 0:15:17.920 --> 0:15:20.120 If I could have, we should do Stephani your show 0:15:20.240 --> 0:15:23.000 just on the eye rolls of policymakers in Davos when 0:15:23.040 --> 0:15:25.080 you ask them about, you know, whether it was possible 0:15:25.120 --> 0:15:28.240 to Trump prove the economy. I think the Finance Minister 0:15:28.320 --> 0:15:30.280 of Germany said, look, we're just talking too much about 0:15:30.600 --> 0:15:32.760 Donald Trump. Is there a way of Europe and others 0:15:32.840 --> 0:15:33.920 to Trump prove the economy? 0:15:34.600 --> 0:15:36.160 I mean, if I were them, I'd be much more 0:15:36.200 --> 0:15:40.280 concerned about Trump proofing, you know, the security of Eastern 0:15:40.560 --> 0:15:42.200 in Europe. I mean just to you know, to go 0:15:42.320 --> 0:15:44.320 back to a Legras point, I think that is where 0:15:45.840 --> 0:15:48.440 sort of under the surface, where the concerns would have 0:15:48.560 --> 0:15:51.200 to be. If you have a leader coming in who 0:15:52.080 --> 0:15:57.360 has got an ambiguous at best relationship towards President Putin, 0:15:58.200 --> 0:16:02.000 and whose election just in itself will send a signal 0:16:02.280 --> 0:16:06.680 to a lot of powers around the world that the 0:16:06.800 --> 0:16:09.880 sort of US policeman is not going to be around, 0:16:10.000 --> 0:16:12.000 or at least could be easily bought off in one 0:16:12.040 --> 0:16:15.400 way or another. You know that both President Biden and 0:16:16.400 --> 0:16:20.480 President Trump have been sort of in some ways America 0:16:20.640 --> 0:16:23.560 first politicians. But the difference of course with Biden is 0:16:23.600 --> 0:16:28.080 it's not been America only, whereas President Trump is very 0:16:28.160 --> 0:16:31.200 much sort of focused on just the US alone, not 0:16:31.400 --> 0:16:33.800 the broader security of the world. If you're sitting in 0:16:34.240 --> 0:16:37.880 Poland or Moldova, which could easily be next in President 0:16:37.920 --> 0:16:40.680 putin sites let alone lap fear, I think, you know, 0:16:40.760 --> 0:16:44.120 there isn't a lot of Trump proofing, even though President Macrol, 0:16:44.200 --> 0:16:47.920 for example, in France's you know, is definitely talking about 0:16:47.960 --> 0:16:49.520 the need for Europe to have a response. 0:16:50.600 --> 0:16:52.360 One of the other things that you know, people now 0:16:52.440 --> 0:16:55.560 talk about after New Hampshire is how did anyone ever 0:16:55.640 --> 0:16:59.040 think that they could beat Donald Trump as a Republican candidate? 0:17:00.240 --> 0:17:02.600 You know, what's his pull for? If you're sitting in Europe, 0:17:02.800 --> 0:17:05.840 you kind of think, well, why is he so late? 0:17:06.600 --> 0:17:09.560 I mean, he's he has managed to turn around, you know, 0:17:09.640 --> 0:17:14.119 he's managed to play the you know, liberal establishment against 0:17:14.160 --> 0:17:16.800 itself brilliantly. And you know we've all seen this again 0:17:16.840 --> 0:17:21.040 and again. But you know that the series of legal 0:17:21.160 --> 0:17:24.960 cases I think probably have sort of sealed it for him, 0:17:25.240 --> 0:17:28.199 because it can they can sort of send a signal. 0:17:28.640 --> 0:17:30.120 You know, he can say, look, this is what they're 0:17:30.160 --> 0:17:32.480 doing to me, Imagine what they could do to you, 0:17:32.960 --> 0:17:36.840 you know, And I'm standing there defending you against this 0:17:38.440 --> 0:17:41.119 against a sort of liberal state that wants to that 0:17:41.240 --> 0:17:43.680 wants to take all your money and wants to you know, 0:17:43.840 --> 0:17:46.960 send the US to the dogs. So you know, he 0:17:47.160 --> 0:17:51.280 has been just he has pulled off that coup and 0:17:51.320 --> 0:17:53.119 I guess he was allowed to do that because he 0:17:53.280 --> 0:17:58.240 was never really punished for January sixth, which people thought, 0:17:58.359 --> 0:17:59.800 you know, was going to be the end of him, 0:18:00.000 --> 0:18:03.719 but his party sort of collectively gave him a pass 0:18:04.000 --> 0:18:06.879 and then that enabled him to sort of rebuild his support. 0:18:06.960 --> 0:18:08.760 But it, you know, it will go down as a 0:18:09.160 --> 0:18:13.480 pretty extraordinary political career to have pulled off. 0:18:14.119 --> 0:18:16.240 But isn't there isn't there isn't he doing? Isn't he 0:18:16.320 --> 0:18:18.520 treading a fine line which is difficult for him with 0:18:18.640 --> 0:18:21.920 this instinct to kind of be a showman. But isn't 0:18:21.920 --> 0:18:24.320 there a kind of worry amongst some voters of him 0:18:24.359 --> 0:18:27.160 wanting revenge? And he you know, whis Whilst you're right, 0:18:27.240 --> 0:18:30.000 it's a motivating factor for them, the idea of this 0:18:30.160 --> 0:18:35.080 underdog being beaten up legally by the Democrats. So in 0:18:35.200 --> 0:18:38.320 some senses it is motivating and galvanizing for him, but 0:18:38.440 --> 0:18:40.760 he has to be careful not to be too hell 0:18:40.880 --> 0:18:44.280 bent on revenge and and getting his own back, and 0:18:44.359 --> 0:18:46.800 so you see that in the narratives or sorry, his 0:18:46.920 --> 0:18:50.320 rhetoric after Iowa he was quite sort of you know, 0:18:50.480 --> 0:18:53.800 magisterial and the statesmen like. And then last night he 0:18:54.000 --> 0:18:57.440 was what this morning is pretty vile about about his opponent. 0:18:57.840 --> 0:18:59.920 Yeah, I think he's I mean, this is of course 0:19:00.080 --> 0:19:02.720 what the Biden administration will tell you. They'll say, you know, 0:19:02.840 --> 0:19:07.480 ignore the polls. This is all in a vacuum when 0:19:07.520 --> 0:19:10.680 you actually have when you're facing the choice between the two, 0:19:11.240 --> 0:19:15.000 and when Donald Trump is much more omnipresent on not 0:19:15.240 --> 0:19:19.880 just his own social media platforms, but you know, broadcast news. 0:19:19.800 --> 0:19:20.359 And other areas. 0:19:20.400 --> 0:19:23.800 When he's now out on the road campaigning again, people 0:19:23.840 --> 0:19:27.040 will be reminded, you know, how exhausting it is dealing 0:19:27.119 --> 0:19:29.760 with his sort of sallies every day and his constant 0:19:29.880 --> 0:19:33.120 moving back and forth on different views, and they will 0:19:33.200 --> 0:19:35.520 kind of want the quieter life that comes with you know, 0:19:35.680 --> 0:19:39.240 old man Biden. You know that there is there could 0:19:39.320 --> 0:19:41.040 be a lot of truth to that, but we just 0:19:41.119 --> 0:19:41.760 don't know yet. 0:19:42.200 --> 0:19:44.400 I guess one of the most extraordinary things is also 0:19:44.480 --> 0:19:48.159 when Donald Trump starts speaking about China, and you know, 0:19:48.480 --> 0:19:51.920 some of the antagonizing things he said about China, people 0:19:51.960 --> 0:19:55.040 were horrified, and now it's really mainstream. Are there other 0:19:55.160 --> 0:19:58.560 points whereas actually he's really set the agenda on economics 0:19:58.600 --> 0:19:59.840 and the way that the US will be. 0:20:00.359 --> 0:20:02.399 I mean, I do think that in many ways, the 0:20:02.400 --> 0:20:06.359 Biden administration has operationalized a lot of the sort of 0:20:06.480 --> 0:20:09.680 Trump rhetoric on China and what had gone wrong with 0:20:09.760 --> 0:20:13.800 the US and the unfair global trading system. You know, 0:20:13.880 --> 0:20:16.600 they kind of took it seriously. They kept quite a 0:20:16.600 --> 0:20:19.919 lot of his tariffs in place against China, but they 0:20:20.040 --> 0:20:22.600 also put all of these domestic policies in place that 0:20:22.640 --> 0:20:25.760 were about specifically competing with China and also trying to 0:20:25.880 --> 0:20:29.520 slow down China's own development. You know, it was the 0:20:29.800 --> 0:20:34.119 Biden administration that actually put limits on you know, exports 0:20:34.200 --> 0:20:37.080 to China are a very high level superconducted technologies and 0:20:37.160 --> 0:20:39.639 other things. So that's why I think it's interesting that 0:20:40.400 --> 0:20:42.360