1 00:00:05,120 --> 00:00:09,200 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keane. Along 2 00:00:09,240 --> 00:00:12,760 Speaker 1: with Jonathan Ferrell and Lisa Brown Witz Jay Ley. We 3 00:00:12,880 --> 00:00:16,800 Speaker 1: bring you insight from the best and economics, finance, investment, 4 00:00:17,079 --> 00:00:22,440 Speaker 1: and international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple podcast, Suncloud, 5 00:00:22,840 --> 00:00:26,320 Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot com, and of course on the Bloomberg terminal. 6 00:00:29,440 --> 00:00:32,280 Speaker 1: Long ago, there was Planned Chronics and it was a 7 00:00:32,440 --> 00:00:36,320 Speaker 1: glory of a small cap stock from three dollars up 8 00:00:36,320 --> 00:00:40,239 Speaker 1: to seventies seven dollars and down. John just a complete 9 00:00:40,240 --> 00:00:43,600 Speaker 1: debaccle to twenty six dollars to take out this morning 10 00:00:43,600 --> 00:00:47,880 Speaker 1: all cash HP forty dollars per share. Dave shul looks 11 00:00:47,880 --> 00:00:51,400 Speaker 1: like a genius. What they do headphones, they do stuff 12 00:00:51,440 --> 00:00:54,320 Speaker 1: like that. They I don't know. No, they're not like 13 00:00:54,360 --> 00:00:58,160 Speaker 1: those kind of headphones. I mean, you know you're not listening. Yeah, 14 00:00:58,360 --> 00:01:01,200 Speaker 1: they're not like you'll you'll us into Tyler the Creator. 15 00:01:01,240 --> 00:01:03,880 Speaker 1: They're not like that. They're like when you're like hello, 16 00:01:04,120 --> 00:01:08,800 Speaker 1: line to John Farrell's online too. Yeah, that kind of thing. Okay, 17 00:01:08,840 --> 00:01:11,319 Speaker 1: we'll move on from that, but that's an interesting story. 18 00:01:11,360 --> 00:01:13,319 Speaker 1: They're the only one that understands what I'm talking about 19 00:01:13,360 --> 00:01:16,440 Speaker 1: is Terry Wiseman who remembers this and Bear Sterns years ago, 20 00:01:16,840 --> 00:01:21,080 Speaker 1: not on plantronics, but on interest rates and currencies. Terry, 21 00:01:21,160 --> 00:01:24,399 Speaker 1: I am honored you were on today, and I want 22 00:01:24,440 --> 00:01:28,360 Speaker 1: to link it right into Macquarie, which is ausi yen. 23 00:01:29,120 --> 00:01:34,160 Speaker 1: When we move like we move, things happen. What should 24 00:01:34,160 --> 00:01:39,679 Speaker 1: we be paying attention to with weekend three standard deviation 25 00:01:39,760 --> 00:01:43,880 Speaker 1: long rendmnby three standard deviation long ausee, etcetera. What do 26 00:01:44,000 --> 00:01:47,480 Speaker 1: we gotta focus on? We still have to focus on 27 00:01:48,240 --> 00:01:49,960 Speaker 1: what the central banks are going to do it, especially 28 00:01:49,960 --> 00:01:51,240 Speaker 1: with the b o J is going to do over 29 00:01:51,280 --> 00:01:53,200 Speaker 1: the next few weeks. They have a meeting coming up 30 00:01:53,200 --> 00:01:56,280 Speaker 1: in a few weeks, and we think that they're going 31 00:01:56,360 --> 00:02:02,600 Speaker 1: to um potentially raise that app on ten year d yield. Yes, 32 00:02:02,680 --> 00:02:04,520 Speaker 1: you're willing to call that that They're gonna go from 33 00:02:04,520 --> 00:02:07,560 Speaker 1: a point to five out to something new. Yeah, probably 34 00:02:07,600 --> 00:02:10,079 Speaker 1: about above zero point three, maybe zero point three to 35 00:02:10,160 --> 00:02:13,240 Speaker 1: zero point four, somewhere in that range. I think at 36 00:02:13,280 --> 00:02:16,959 Speaker 1: some point there's gonna be a loss or or lack 37 00:02:17,000 --> 00:02:19,920 Speaker 1: of tolerance for for a week or agen. As you said, 38 00:02:20,040 --> 00:02:24,000 Speaker 1: imports are going to start getting more expensive in Japan. Uh, 39 00:02:24,160 --> 00:02:27,400 Speaker 1: It's true that they need more inflation, But it seems 40 00:02:27,400 --> 00:02:29,919 Speaker 1: that they also don't need the kind of uncertainty that's 41 00:02:29,919 --> 00:02:32,680 Speaker 1: brought to the market by a lot of dollar yet 42 00:02:32,680 --> 00:02:34,840 Speaker 1: in volatile. Okay, but Terry, with all your with all 43 00:02:34,880 --> 00:02:37,120 Speaker 1: your I gotta interrupt because this is so so important. 44 00:02:37,320 --> 00:02:39,680 Speaker 1: You and I are xconsed at the Imperial Hotel, at 45 00:02:39,680 --> 00:02:42,520 Speaker 1: the old Frank Lloyd Wright Bar. You're Evan Saki. I 46 00:02:42,560 --> 00:02:45,840 Speaker 1: can't afford I'm having a triple Scotch and we're talking 47 00:02:45,880 --> 00:02:50,520 Speaker 1: about a cultural change in Japan? Are we gonna see 48 00:02:50,560 --> 00:02:53,560 Speaker 1: that at this time? No. I wouldn't describe it as such. 49 00:02:53,600 --> 00:02:55,640 Speaker 1: That the states of cultural change would be to say 50 00:02:55,680 --> 00:02:59,960 Speaker 1: that somehow zero point to five percent is some sort 51 00:03:00,040 --> 00:03:02,920 Speaker 1: of line in the sand that is immutable. We never 52 00:03:02,960 --> 00:03:06,280 Speaker 1: thought that it was always intended to adjust with conditions. 53 00:03:06,840 --> 00:03:10,800 Speaker 1: Inflation is returning to Japan to some extent, but more importantly, 54 00:03:10,880 --> 00:03:13,160 Speaker 1: that's the b o J risks having a situation where 55 00:03:13,160 --> 00:03:15,639 Speaker 1: it's forced to absorb and buy every j g BE 56 00:03:15,760 --> 00:03:19,440 Speaker 1: on the planet. Uh If if yields outside of Japan 57 00:03:19,480 --> 00:03:22,600 Speaker 1: continued to go up and people continue to dump their jgbs, 58 00:03:22,600 --> 00:03:24,480 Speaker 1: I don't think the b O J would want to 59 00:03:24,480 --> 00:03:26,880 Speaker 1: be in a position where it completely loses control of 60 00:03:26,880 --> 00:03:29,639 Speaker 1: its balance sheet, and the adjustment they have to make 61 00:03:29,680 --> 00:03:32,120 Speaker 1: here is to raise the cap. It's not a cultural change. 62 00:03:32,160 --> 00:03:33,800 Speaker 1: I think it's with central banks do all the time, 63 00:03:34,400 --> 00:03:36,440 Speaker 1: move at the times, move with the data. Terry. There 64 00:03:36,520 --> 00:03:38,400 Speaker 1: is a time when actually people would not have found 65 00:03:38,400 --> 00:03:40,840 Speaker 1: that as shocking, considering how much of some of the 66 00:03:40,880 --> 00:03:43,480 Speaker 1: markets the Bank of Japan ended up owning. I do 67 00:03:43,560 --> 00:03:46,080 Speaker 1: wonder though, going back to your question about the idea 68 00:03:46,080 --> 00:03:49,480 Speaker 1: of a weak currency being a bad thing, after so 69 00:03:49,520 --> 00:03:51,960 Speaker 1: many years, when I'm sure that the Bank of Japan 70 00:03:52,120 --> 00:03:55,520 Speaker 1: would have welcomed a weaker currency, we've seen this race 71 00:03:55,600 --> 00:03:59,280 Speaker 1: to strengthening in the FX market. Are you saying that 72 00:03:59,320 --> 00:04:01,280 Speaker 1: the Bank of Japan hand will be in the same 73 00:04:01,360 --> 00:04:04,120 Speaker 1: camp and that really it's a fight to preserve the 74 00:04:04,200 --> 00:04:08,400 Speaker 1: worth in order to avoid that kind of bad inflationary input. Yeah, 75 00:04:08,440 --> 00:04:10,600 Speaker 1: I think so. I think the kind of inflation that 76 00:04:10,960 --> 00:04:12,640 Speaker 1: the rest of the world is seeing is certainly going 77 00:04:12,680 --> 00:04:15,280 Speaker 1: to be to be visited on Japan. After all, Uh, 78 00:04:15,320 --> 00:04:17,839 Speaker 1: they are not a commodity economy there there in terms 79 00:04:17,880 --> 00:04:20,039 Speaker 1: of trade or not improving here, there's no reason to 80 00:04:20,120 --> 00:04:23,159 Speaker 1: believe outside of central bank policy that the end would 81 00:04:23,160 --> 00:04:27,240 Speaker 1: stabilize at these levels, and I think they recognize that 82 00:04:27,400 --> 00:04:29,560 Speaker 1: and will be forced to make an adjustment. It may 83 00:04:29,560 --> 00:04:32,440 Speaker 1: be small, it may not be enough to you know, 84 00:04:32,520 --> 00:04:34,839 Speaker 1: take dollar end back down to one one ten or 85 00:04:34,880 --> 00:04:36,800 Speaker 1: one oh five, but I think it will be enough 86 00:04:36,839 --> 00:04:39,840 Speaker 1: to start stabilizing UH dollar. Yet. The other thing I 87 00:04:39,839 --> 00:04:42,640 Speaker 1: would keep in mind is that dollar yen typically does 88 00:04:42,720 --> 00:04:45,800 Speaker 1: not go up in those periods after the US yield 89 00:04:45,839 --> 00:04:48,040 Speaker 1: curve inverts, and we are very close to inversion now, 90 00:04:48,360 --> 00:04:50,279 Speaker 1: the same way we were in two thousand seven and 91 00:04:50,320 --> 00:04:52,400 Speaker 1: the same way we we were in two thousand nineteen. 92 00:04:52,400 --> 00:04:54,960 Speaker 1: If you look back with both those episodes, dollar yen 93 00:04:55,120 --> 00:04:57,440 Speaker 1: was not rising anymore. It may have been rising before, 94 00:04:57,480 --> 00:05:00,200 Speaker 1: but it started to fall after the inversion. So that's 95 00:05:00,200 --> 00:05:02,839 Speaker 1: another reason why we think that dollary and may stabilize 96 00:05:02,839 --> 00:05:05,599 Speaker 1: around these levels. This raises a question about what the 97 00:05:05,640 --> 00:05:08,679 Speaker 1: haven is and whether the dollar really becomes the last 98 00:05:08,680 --> 00:05:11,400 Speaker 1: standing haven that will continue to get inflows and continue 99 00:05:11,400 --> 00:05:14,680 Speaker 1: to get stronger versus all of its developed market peers 100 00:05:14,720 --> 00:05:17,560 Speaker 1: amid the turmoil of both with respect to inflation but 101 00:05:17,600 --> 00:05:22,280 Speaker 1: also with respect to a potential growth scares. But not necessarily. 102 00:05:23,000 --> 00:05:25,359 Speaker 1: You have seen the commodity currencies do very well in 103 00:05:25,400 --> 00:05:28,760 Speaker 1: this context at the expense of the dollar. The Canadian 104 00:05:28,800 --> 00:05:31,120 Speaker 1: dollars been stable, the Ausy dollar has been stable. Many 105 00:05:31,120 --> 00:05:35,480 Speaker 1: of the emerging market currency they're associated with commodity economies 106 00:05:35,600 --> 00:05:37,640 Speaker 1: as in Latin America and very stable. So I would 107 00:05:37,640 --> 00:05:41,160 Speaker 1: not necessarily say that the dollar is the last is 108 00:05:41,200 --> 00:05:43,960 Speaker 1: the redoubt here of of the inflation mistas. There are 109 00:05:43,960 --> 00:05:47,080 Speaker 1: other currencies that one can buy here if one wants 110 00:05:47,120 --> 00:05:50,600 Speaker 1: better protection, especially against the commodity driven supply shock driven 111 00:05:50,680 --> 00:05:53,960 Speaker 1: inflation terry just quickly. The boj today hat to come 112 00:05:54,000 --> 00:05:58,039 Speaker 1: in multiple times. I'm just thinking a few steps, a 113 00:05:58,040 --> 00:06:00,880 Speaker 1: few miles down the rotarian getting to the end the story. 114 00:06:01,240 --> 00:06:02,560 Speaker 1: Are they going to win the whold of this j 115 00:06:02,640 --> 00:06:06,800 Speaker 1: g B market once they're done, because they already No, 116 00:06:06,920 --> 00:06:08,840 Speaker 1: I don't think so, because I think that's not something 117 00:06:08,839 --> 00:06:12,720 Speaker 1: they want to do, that eliminate liquidity from the market. 118 00:06:12,760 --> 00:06:15,800 Speaker 1: I don't think that's the central Bank's responsibility. But already 119 00:06:15,839 --> 00:06:17,680 Speaker 1: have a night what liquidity is there in the j 120 00:06:17,760 --> 00:06:20,160 Speaker 1: g P market. We go some days where it's not 121 00:06:20,200 --> 00:06:24,760 Speaker 1: even traded agreed and but I don't think they're going 122 00:06:24,800 --> 00:06:27,240 Speaker 1: to force things to an extreme here there needs to 123 00:06:27,279 --> 00:06:30,080 Speaker 1: be a liquid j g B market for the for 124 00:06:30,120 --> 00:06:32,279 Speaker 1: the for the federal government to issue into I don't 125 00:06:32,279 --> 00:06:35,719 Speaker 1: think a central bank's role is to eliminate liquidity. And 126 00:06:35,760 --> 00:06:38,200 Speaker 1: remember we were looking at very tough times in Japan 127 00:06:38,360 --> 00:06:41,880 Speaker 1: in the past deflation. We're not looking at that anymore 128 00:06:41,880 --> 00:06:45,400 Speaker 1: in Japan. The need to to to reef to to 129 00:06:45,560 --> 00:06:49,680 Speaker 1: reflate is diminishing in importance, and the need to potentially 130 00:06:49,720 --> 00:06:52,520 Speaker 1: bring back liquidity to the j B j GB market 131 00:06:52,600 --> 00:06:56,160 Speaker 1: is increasing in importance. It's a relative switch. I think 132 00:06:56,200 --> 00:06:58,960 Speaker 1: they're going to raise the limit, the upper limit on 133 00:06:58,960 --> 00:07:01,000 Speaker 1: on j g B. That's what I wanted to get saved. 134 00:07:01,320 --> 00:07:03,799 Speaker 1: That's gonna be the biggest shape Terry Wasteman and Macquarie, 135 00:07:04,000 --> 00:07:12,400 Speaker 1: thank you said right now maybe your most important conversation 136 00:07:12,480 --> 00:07:15,400 Speaker 1: of the day. We're fixated on yield. We're fixated on 137 00:07:15,440 --> 00:07:19,360 Speaker 1: bond price. Sarah Hunt looks at equities portfolio manager Alpine 138 00:07:19,360 --> 00:07:23,640 Speaker 1: Woods Capital Investors. One measure I have, Sarah of bond 139 00:07:23,680 --> 00:07:26,520 Speaker 1: price is back to a price of two thousand nine. 140 00:07:27,240 --> 00:07:29,200 Speaker 1: That you can be the idea of an e t 141 00:07:29,480 --> 00:07:33,080 Speaker 1: F A given bond market e t F. That's I 142 00:07:33,080 --> 00:07:34,680 Speaker 1: don't know if it's a bear market, but it's a 143 00:07:34,720 --> 00:07:39,920 Speaker 1: pretty ugly number negative eleven on price, and yet equities 144 00:07:40,000 --> 00:07:43,720 Speaker 1: are resilient. Is it just money choosing? Is it flow 145 00:07:44,240 --> 00:07:48,880 Speaker 1: from fixed income to equity? I think it's the same 146 00:07:48,920 --> 00:07:51,320 Speaker 1: problem that we've been seeing since you've had since two 147 00:07:51,320 --> 00:07:55,119 Speaker 1: dozen and one, when you've had interest rates at historic lows. 148 00:07:55,200 --> 00:07:57,000 Speaker 1: And I think that this fast, fast move in the 149 00:07:57,040 --> 00:07:59,960 Speaker 1: bond marketing yield has caught people a little bit off guard. 150 00:08:00,160 --> 00:08:02,920 Speaker 1: And I think that there is some belief that equities 151 00:08:02,960 --> 00:08:05,120 Speaker 1: have more safety in them because you've got more growth 152 00:08:05,160 --> 00:08:08,120 Speaker 1: inequities than you have potentially in the economy. And I 153 00:08:08,680 --> 00:08:11,520 Speaker 1: just don't I think that it's very difficult when bonds 154 00:08:11,560 --> 00:08:13,760 Speaker 1: have more volatility than some of the things that are 155 00:08:13,800 --> 00:08:17,280 Speaker 1: supposed to be volatile, like bitcoin, which you were discussing earlier, 156 00:08:17,560 --> 00:08:19,520 Speaker 1: and I and this move is just taking people, I 157 00:08:19,520 --> 00:08:22,040 Speaker 1: think very much by surprise. Do you have a gauge 158 00:08:22,360 --> 00:08:26,000 Speaker 1: of the revenue line of the corporations you follow, the 159 00:08:26,040 --> 00:08:28,360 Speaker 1: ones you like, the ones you hold, the ones you sell? 160 00:08:29,080 --> 00:08:33,560 Speaker 1: And is the misestimation here? Nominal GDP will give us 161 00:08:33,600 --> 00:08:38,320 Speaker 1: better revenue growth than anybody cares to admit. I think 162 00:08:38,360 --> 00:08:41,160 Speaker 1: that part of the upside to inflation in people's minds 163 00:08:41,160 --> 00:08:43,679 Speaker 1: is that, yes, you will have an inflation in revenues. 164 00:08:43,920 --> 00:08:46,120 Speaker 1: I think what is not being thought about is as 165 00:08:46,160 --> 00:08:48,800 Speaker 1: deeply is what that does to margins and what that 166 00:08:48,880 --> 00:08:51,600 Speaker 1: does to the costs on the other side. In the beginning, 167 00:08:51,640 --> 00:08:54,320 Speaker 1: you have higher prices, but you don't have those costs 168 00:08:54,320 --> 00:08:56,839 Speaker 1: catching up. As those costs start to catch up, then 169 00:08:56,880 --> 00:08:59,640 Speaker 1: it becomes a much more difficult balance between can I 170 00:08:59,720 --> 00:09:02,360 Speaker 1: keep on margins and still be raising my revenue lines 171 00:09:02,679 --> 00:09:05,160 Speaker 1: or not. And I think that's where in the in 172 00:09:05,200 --> 00:09:07,760 Speaker 1: the near term that equities have the advantage. But I 173 00:09:07,760 --> 00:09:10,240 Speaker 1: think that there is some question as to how all 174 00:09:10,320 --> 00:09:12,600 Speaker 1: these infut costs, which are not going to be as 175 00:09:12,600 --> 00:09:15,800 Speaker 1: easy to fix as people are hoping, come down. And 176 00:09:15,840 --> 00:09:18,120 Speaker 1: that includes the energy price, which is a big part 177 00:09:18,200 --> 00:09:20,400 Speaker 1: of what's going on here. That's going to flow through 178 00:09:20,440 --> 00:09:23,960 Speaker 1: to a lot of other things besides just energy prices themselves. 179 00:09:24,160 --> 00:09:27,240 Speaker 1: So it just drilling down into the granularity of markets 180 00:09:27,280 --> 00:09:29,960 Speaker 1: and frankly equities more broadly, how much can you bet 181 00:09:29,960 --> 00:09:35,280 Speaker 1: on consumer discretionaries at a time like this. I have 182 00:09:35,360 --> 00:09:37,800 Speaker 1: to say, I'm sorry, gentlemen, but I'm in camp Lisa 183 00:09:37,840 --> 00:09:40,400 Speaker 1: on this one. I am very concerned that all these 184 00:09:40,480 --> 00:09:43,320 Speaker 1: higher prices are going to lead to different spending choices 185 00:09:43,360 --> 00:09:45,400 Speaker 1: and for people to pull back a little bit and 186 00:09:45,480 --> 00:09:47,400 Speaker 1: to worry that they are going to not have enough 187 00:09:47,440 --> 00:09:49,920 Speaker 1: money to deal with things like higher energy price bills, 188 00:09:50,160 --> 00:09:53,200 Speaker 1: higher heating bills, higher cooling bills in the summer, and 189 00:09:53,480 --> 00:09:55,800 Speaker 1: higher food prices. So I do think that it makes 190 00:09:55,800 --> 00:09:58,440 Speaker 1: people more cautious about what they spend. You've got the 191 00:09:58,440 --> 00:10:01,280 Speaker 1: conflicting aspect of coming out of the pandemic, which we're 192 00:10:01,280 --> 00:10:03,560 Speaker 1: still trying to do, so there's also a little bit 193 00:10:03,600 --> 00:10:06,240 Speaker 1: of excitement to both spend and travel. So those are 194 00:10:06,360 --> 00:10:09,280 Speaker 1: competing forces at the moment. But if you don't have 195 00:10:09,320 --> 00:10:11,640 Speaker 1: some changes longer term and energy prices, I think that 196 00:10:11,720 --> 00:10:15,160 Speaker 1: really does confect affects consumer psychology and John. What's important 197 00:10:15,200 --> 00:10:17,120 Speaker 1: here is we all know Camp Lesa is a lot 198 00:10:17,200 --> 00:10:23,000 Speaker 1: like Total Drama Island. The swim test alone is enough 199 00:10:23,040 --> 00:10:25,760 Speaker 1: to kill you. Let the black flies. Camp Laser is 200 00:10:25,760 --> 00:10:28,160 Speaker 1: not a place you might not want to go to. 201 00:10:28,440 --> 00:10:31,800 Speaker 1: I mean, Lisa, what happens at Camp Lisa? What comes 202 00:10:31,880 --> 00:10:34,080 Speaker 1: on that if you just you know, walk around and 203 00:10:34,080 --> 00:10:36,120 Speaker 1: feeling kind of gluemy. No, in all honesty, what you 204 00:10:36,160 --> 00:10:37,680 Speaker 1: do is you look at the data. Getting back to 205 00:10:37,720 --> 00:10:39,559 Speaker 1: this point Sara, that you're raising, and I want to 206 00:10:39,600 --> 00:10:42,200 Speaker 1: get a little bit closer to it. This this idea 207 00:10:42,400 --> 00:10:45,160 Speaker 1: of not wanting to go into consumer discretionaries at a 208 00:10:45,160 --> 00:10:48,160 Speaker 1: time of pressure on some of these households. What counts 209 00:10:48,200 --> 00:10:52,080 Speaker 1: as discretionary? Is it an Apple phone? Is it an iPhone? 210 00:10:52,200 --> 00:10:54,320 Speaker 1: Is it an Apple watch? Is it? You know, some 211 00:10:54,400 --> 00:10:57,920 Speaker 1: of the basic mainstays of households that cost a lot 212 00:10:58,120 --> 00:11:00,800 Speaker 1: and used to be discretionary, but for apps no longer are. 213 00:11:02,240 --> 00:11:04,400 Speaker 1: So I would argue that something like Apple went from 214 00:11:04,400 --> 00:11:07,199 Speaker 1: being I agree as discretionary to something Can you imagine 215 00:11:07,200 --> 00:11:09,280 Speaker 1: when you leave your house without your phone by accident? 216 00:11:09,320 --> 00:11:11,360 Speaker 1: It feels like you you know, it's like something terrible 217 00:11:11,400 --> 00:11:13,600 Speaker 1: has happened. So I'm not sure that that counts as 218 00:11:13,679 --> 00:11:17,280 Speaker 1: much as discretionary as on the margin people doing more 219 00:11:17,480 --> 00:11:20,440 Speaker 1: on the both travel and entertainment side, Maybe you put 220 00:11:20,480 --> 00:11:22,200 Speaker 1: something off for a little while longer, even though you're 221 00:11:22,200 --> 00:11:24,559 Speaker 1: excited to travel. Maybe you only take one trip instead 222 00:11:24,600 --> 00:11:26,840 Speaker 1: of too depending on what's going on with COVID, And 223 00:11:26,880 --> 00:11:29,679 Speaker 1: that's another thing that's still problematic. Look at China, you're 224 00:11:29,679 --> 00:11:31,720 Speaker 1: seeing oil back and down today, partially on the back 225 00:11:31,760 --> 00:11:35,040 Speaker 1: of the fact that China is once again having issues 226 00:11:35,080 --> 00:11:38,160 Speaker 1: and is trying to curtail COVID by shutting things down. 227 00:11:38,240 --> 00:11:40,360 Speaker 1: I think that there is so much going on right 228 00:11:40,400 --> 00:11:42,760 Speaker 1: now it is very difficult to pass each and every piece. 229 00:11:43,000 --> 00:11:45,960 Speaker 1: But ultimately we still have the problem of all the 230 00:11:46,040 --> 00:11:49,040 Speaker 1: factors have moved towards a higher energy price and higher 231 00:11:49,040 --> 00:11:51,640 Speaker 1: food prices. That is going to be tough for consumers. 232 00:11:51,800 --> 00:11:55,360 Speaker 1: However you define discretionary is still going to be a problem. 233 00:11:55,400 --> 00:11:57,760 Speaker 1: I cannot keep up with this market at the moment. Sarah, 234 00:11:57,800 --> 00:12:00,839 Speaker 1: thank you, Sarah Hunt Valpine. What's off of investas that 235 00:12:00,920 --> 00:12:04,280 Speaker 1: she ducks out the way it heads towards. It's a 236 00:12:04,280 --> 00:12:11,960 Speaker 1: really this is a joy and with the uproar over 237 00:12:11,960 --> 00:12:14,840 Speaker 1: the last forty eight hours. I'm President Biden. In the trip, 238 00:12:14,920 --> 00:12:17,080 Speaker 1: we thought we'd talked to the adult in the room 239 00:12:17,120 --> 00:12:21,160 Speaker 1: who actually can give perspective. Professor Schiller. Wendy Schiller's Tobbin 240 00:12:21,280 --> 00:12:26,360 Speaker 1: Center for American Politics at Brown University is definitive in 241 00:12:26,440 --> 00:12:31,679 Speaker 1: the span of American history. Wendy Schiller Obama two thousand eight. 242 00:12:32,120 --> 00:12:34,520 Speaker 1: I know that I don't look like the Americans who 243 00:12:34,559 --> 00:12:38,760 Speaker 1: have previously spoken in This Great City, Obama clearly talking 244 00:12:39,120 --> 00:12:46,439 Speaker 1: about JFK. Reagan with Garbaschev June twelve, nine seven. That 245 00:12:46,600 --> 00:12:50,280 Speaker 1: was the weight on this president to find the right tone. 246 00:12:50,800 --> 00:12:55,079 Speaker 1: Did he come near it or was it too much pressure? Well, 247 00:12:55,120 --> 00:12:58,040 Speaker 1: I think that he is concerned about looking too weak. 248 00:12:58,160 --> 00:13:00,680 Speaker 1: I think that's you know, one of the things that 249 00:13:01,440 --> 00:13:04,120 Speaker 1: is sort of hangover the Obama administration, especially when it 250 00:13:04,160 --> 00:13:07,280 Speaker 1: comes to Russia, obviously with Syria in particular. You know, 251 00:13:07,320 --> 00:13:10,240 Speaker 1: how do you stop people from doing terrible things? How 252 00:13:10,240 --> 00:13:14,280 Speaker 1: do you stop people from doing military exercises, invasions, you know, 253 00:13:14,440 --> 00:13:18,000 Speaker 1: killing people, blowing up buildings. That's what Americans are seeing NonStop. 254 00:13:18,400 --> 00:13:22,080 Speaker 1: And they're wondering, with this massive apparatus and military approus 255 00:13:22,160 --> 00:13:25,160 Speaker 1: we have, why we can't do more. So he's trying 256 00:13:25,160 --> 00:13:28,000 Speaker 1: to urge everybody to say this guy should not be there. 257 00:13:28,040 --> 00:13:31,040 Speaker 1: He's legitimate. Now it's borderline. You know, the United States 258 00:13:31,080 --> 00:13:34,920 Speaker 1: is legally prohibited obviously from trying regime change short of 259 00:13:34,960 --> 00:13:38,640 Speaker 1: declaring war. Um So I think that's the problem for him. 260 00:13:38,720 --> 00:13:40,400 Speaker 1: I mean, that's to me, that's the problem form. But 261 00:13:40,400 --> 00:13:42,160 Speaker 1: that's what he's trying to do. It's the shadow of 262 00:13:42,200 --> 00:13:44,520 Speaker 1: Obama and Syria that I think is really governing a 263 00:13:44,520 --> 00:13:46,600 Speaker 1: lot of what they're doing here, the professor Shoulder, this 264 00:13:46,640 --> 00:13:49,360 Speaker 1: goes to your classic textbook. It goes to Obama. Oh a, 265 00:13:49,480 --> 00:13:53,840 Speaker 1: it goes to Reagan. They didn't have the speed of 266 00:13:53,960 --> 00:13:58,720 Speaker 1: modern media. The President Biden faces, how is he doing 267 00:13:58,880 --> 00:14:03,880 Speaker 1: adapting to the new realities of news flow? Well, I mean, 268 00:14:03,880 --> 00:14:06,800 Speaker 1: he's not of the generation, and he's been making gaffs 269 00:14:06,800 --> 00:14:08,959 Speaker 1: ever since he you know, went to the United States Senate, 270 00:14:09,040 --> 00:14:10,840 Speaker 1: so it's not as if he's going to change his 271 00:14:10,920 --> 00:14:13,560 Speaker 1: style per se. What surprising to me is the team 272 00:14:13,600 --> 00:14:15,520 Speaker 1: around him has been his team for a long time. 273 00:14:15,559 --> 00:14:18,559 Speaker 1: They're almost like fused as one person. But they should 274 00:14:18,559 --> 00:14:20,840 Speaker 1: know better, or he should make sure to hire people 275 00:14:20,840 --> 00:14:23,280 Speaker 1: who know better, who know how to manage these communications, 276 00:14:23,360 --> 00:14:25,800 Speaker 1: or at least to try better than he's been doing. 277 00:14:26,040 --> 00:14:28,080 Speaker 1: You know, the wisdom that comes with age is great, 278 00:14:28,320 --> 00:14:30,080 Speaker 1: but if you're not willing to listen to people who 279 00:14:30,120 --> 00:14:31,880 Speaker 1: are more in tune what's going on now and how 280 00:14:31,920 --> 00:14:34,160 Speaker 1: to communicate the message, then you can make missteps. But 281 00:14:34,240 --> 00:14:36,960 Speaker 1: but Wendy, based on your comment there, that it should 282 00:14:36,960 --> 00:14:39,000 Speaker 1: be who should definit his team to to call him 283 00:14:39,000 --> 00:14:42,840 Speaker 1: out are you saying that this was perhaps a little 284 00:14:42,840 --> 00:14:47,000 Speaker 1: bit predetermined cutting into this speech and not an ad 285 00:14:47,040 --> 00:14:50,240 Speaker 1: lib as people said afterwards. Yeah, no, I mean I 286 00:14:50,280 --> 00:14:52,680 Speaker 1: think he's trying to establish that there are certain people 287 00:14:52,680 --> 00:14:54,880 Speaker 1: who should not be in power, that there's a legitimacy 288 00:14:55,000 --> 00:14:58,240 Speaker 1: that comes with power, and that when you misuse military power, 289 00:14:58,280 --> 00:15:01,760 Speaker 1: particularly and you invade another country. Justice George W. Bush 290 00:15:01,800 --> 00:15:05,000 Speaker 1: said about Saddam the sane, you know, going back all 291 00:15:05,040 --> 00:15:07,440 Speaker 1: over the First Gulf War and his father's war. You know, 292 00:15:07,480 --> 00:15:10,920 Speaker 1: this person should not be in power. They are not legitimate, 293 00:15:11,200 --> 00:15:13,360 Speaker 1: and the world can do something about it. That was 294 00:15:13,400 --> 00:15:15,600 Speaker 1: the message, and I think it was on purpose. One day. 295 00:15:15,600 --> 00:15:17,920 Speaker 1: Is there a difference between the opinion of the President 296 00:15:17,960 --> 00:15:20,120 Speaker 1: of the United States and the official policy of the 297 00:15:20,120 --> 00:15:23,360 Speaker 1: administration across the range of issues. I think we used 298 00:15:23,400 --> 00:15:25,520 Speaker 1: to the President speaking and that being the policy. But 299 00:15:25,600 --> 00:15:30,240 Speaker 1: is there a difference between his opinion and the policy. Well, yeah, 300 00:15:30,240 --> 00:15:32,400 Speaker 1: there's certainly a you know, Royal ready used to say, 301 00:15:32,440 --> 00:15:34,000 Speaker 1: you know, I'd issue an order or take a week 302 00:15:34,040 --> 00:15:36,200 Speaker 1: for it to be implemented in the White House, because 303 00:15:36,400 --> 00:15:39,120 Speaker 1: you know, the policy is a huge bureaucratic apparatus. So 304 00:15:39,240 --> 00:15:40,800 Speaker 1: the things that we do, and the people we have 305 00:15:40,840 --> 00:15:44,040 Speaker 1: on the ground diplomatically, militarily, all those things are set 306 00:15:44,040 --> 00:15:46,480 Speaker 1: in motion, you know, almost separate from the president. Even 307 00:15:46,520 --> 00:15:49,160 Speaker 1: though it's the commander in chief. It should be the same, 308 00:15:49,320 --> 00:15:51,960 Speaker 1: but in fact and how it plays out, I think 309 00:15:51,960 --> 00:15:54,160 Speaker 1: it can be quite different. Right now, Wendy, we're heading 310 00:15:54,160 --> 00:15:56,800 Speaker 1: into a mid term period with consumer sentiment at the 311 00:15:56,840 --> 00:15:59,520 Speaker 1: lowess is two thousand and eleven. President Biden is going 312 00:15:59,600 --> 00:16:02,160 Speaker 1: to try to shift the message back to the United 313 00:16:02,240 --> 00:16:05,560 Speaker 1: States in this speech at two pm today about the 314 00:16:05,600 --> 00:16:09,560 Speaker 1: fiscal year budget. How much is this focus on taxing 315 00:16:09,560 --> 00:16:12,960 Speaker 1: the wealthiest individuals an effort to try to channel some 316 00:16:13,040 --> 00:16:16,480 Speaker 1: of the anger that people feel into this versus actually 317 00:16:16,520 --> 00:16:20,200 Speaker 1: plugging a deficit gap and actually planning forward for a 318 00:16:20,240 --> 00:16:23,480 Speaker 1: policy measure. Well, I think the Democrats are counting on 319 00:16:23,520 --> 00:16:25,320 Speaker 1: this message to be something they can carry through the 320 00:16:25,400 --> 00:16:28,440 Speaker 1: summer and that will be popular over the long run. 321 00:16:28,680 --> 00:16:30,960 Speaker 1: I don't think it does anything for anybody who's paying 322 00:16:30,960 --> 00:16:33,760 Speaker 1: too much money at the gas pump today, or finds 323 00:16:33,760 --> 00:16:35,800 Speaker 1: that there aren't enough products on the shelves, there's paying 324 00:16:35,840 --> 00:16:39,000 Speaker 1: too much for rent, for food, for everything else. So 325 00:16:39,200 --> 00:16:41,680 Speaker 1: it's not a short term boost. But he's trying to 326 00:16:41,720 --> 00:16:43,760 Speaker 1: lay out a message for the party. They can go 327 00:16:43,800 --> 00:16:46,640 Speaker 1: into the summer with that sort of positions the Republicans 328 00:16:46,680 --> 00:16:50,080 Speaker 1: on the wrong side of struggling people, people who are 329 00:16:50,080 --> 00:16:52,720 Speaker 1: struggling economically. So it makes sense in the long game. 330 00:16:52,760 --> 00:16:54,000 Speaker 1: I don't think it does anything for him in the 331 00:16:54,040 --> 00:16:56,560 Speaker 1: short game, and it just quickly. Typically a president might 332 00:16:56,560 --> 00:16:59,080 Speaker 1: wait until after the midterms to have a shake up 333 00:16:59,400 --> 00:17:01,080 Speaker 1: of his camp. And do you think nice ju Now, 334 00:17:01,400 --> 00:17:02,440 Speaker 1: do you think they need to get ahead of some 335 00:17:02,560 --> 00:17:04,960 Speaker 1: of this? Yeah, I mean, even though Clinton had to 336 00:17:04,960 --> 00:17:07,120 Speaker 1: shake up before his first mid term, and certainly had 337 00:17:07,119 --> 00:17:09,199 Speaker 1: to shake up after his first mid term, which was 338 00:17:09,320 --> 00:17:12,120 Speaker 1: pretty disastrous for his presidency. Although let him get reelected 339 00:17:12,119 --> 00:17:15,560 Speaker 1: in have the foil of the Republicans, that's the Achilles 340 00:17:15,600 --> 00:17:17,800 Speaker 1: seal for the Republicans that they take to Congress in 341 00:17:17,840 --> 00:17:21,440 Speaker 1: two then Biden can play off them. They Democrats some 342 00:17:21,440 --> 00:17:24,560 Speaker 1: play off them going into twenty four. So um, yeah, 343 00:17:24,640 --> 00:17:26,639 Speaker 1: I mean I think it's really a problem. But you know, 344 00:17:26,680 --> 00:17:29,640 Speaker 1: the political cycle has gotten so quick, but we just 345 00:17:29,680 --> 00:17:32,240 Speaker 1: don't know how much is baked in for the outcome 346 00:17:32,240 --> 00:17:34,160 Speaker 1: of the mid term and how much how much can change. 347 00:17:34,200 --> 00:17:37,399 Speaker 1: Who do you think is letting him down. Who do 348 00:17:37,440 --> 00:17:40,960 Speaker 1: you think is letting him down? I think I think 349 00:17:41,359 --> 00:17:43,399 Speaker 1: his messaging staff. I mean, I think Jeff Zaki does 350 00:17:43,440 --> 00:17:46,439 Speaker 1: a good job, but I think that his communications staff 351 00:17:46,480 --> 00:17:49,040 Speaker 1: has not figured out how to shift him, how to 352 00:17:49,080 --> 00:17:52,000 Speaker 1: simplify things and the party itself. It has to be 353 00:17:52,040 --> 00:17:54,399 Speaker 1: the same message on message as a party as the 354 00:17:54,480 --> 00:17:56,760 Speaker 1: Republicans have been in a locked step. And you know 355 00:17:56,800 --> 00:17:58,800 Speaker 1: that's simple to absorb in a world that is more 356 00:17:58,800 --> 00:18:01,680 Speaker 1: confusing than ever, that is more scary really than it's 357 00:18:01,680 --> 00:18:03,879 Speaker 1: been in a while. Coming out of pandemic. Is supposed 358 00:18:03,880 --> 00:18:06,560 Speaker 1: to be happy. There's war in Ukraine. These are confusing times. 359 00:18:06,840 --> 00:18:09,560 Speaker 1: Be simple, if you're a politician, have one message and 360 00:18:09,600 --> 00:18:13,119 Speaker 1: stick to it. Brand University, Wendy, thank you as a 361 00:18:13,200 --> 00:18:22,760 Speaker 1: wis one person today I wanted to talk to I said, 362 00:18:22,960 --> 00:18:25,560 Speaker 1: I don't know Paul one. Two am s get nord 363 00:18:25,640 --> 00:18:31,160 Speaker 1: VICKI nord Vicks with us legendary with a phenomenal book 364 00:18:31,200 --> 00:18:34,320 Speaker 1: on Europe, hugely Prussian a decade ago, and he joins 365 00:18:34,400 --> 00:18:38,560 Speaker 1: us today on Japan, Yen, thank you so much with 366 00:18:38,600 --> 00:18:41,679 Speaker 1: Accenity data for joining us this morning. What are the 367 00:18:41,840 --> 00:18:47,240 Speaker 1: ramifications for the people of Japan and their government? If 368 00:18:47,440 --> 00:18:52,560 Speaker 1: yen weakens out further one twenty dare I say to 369 00:18:52,640 --> 00:18:57,639 Speaker 1: one thirty and new trade weighted weakness. Yeah, Well, the 370 00:18:57,720 --> 00:19:02,159 Speaker 1: yen has already weakened about to decent really over the 371 00:19:02,240 --> 00:19:05,800 Speaker 1: last month, so it's a pretty significant move already. And 372 00:19:06,160 --> 00:19:09,840 Speaker 1: clearly if you're importing oil or importing anything, uh, those 373 00:19:09,840 --> 00:19:12,520 Speaker 1: goods will go up dramatically in price. Right, So those 374 00:19:12,560 --> 00:19:16,479 Speaker 1: are the facts that people will see. That said, Japan 375 00:19:16,600 --> 00:19:20,240 Speaker 1: is a different country from almost any other country in 376 00:19:20,280 --> 00:19:22,480 Speaker 1: the world in that they have not had any broad 377 00:19:22,520 --> 00:19:28,440 Speaker 1: based inflation pressure yet. Japan is a country that's been 378 00:19:28,480 --> 00:19:33,520 Speaker 1: stuck in mostly deflationary involved because just at the time, 379 00:19:33,640 --> 00:19:36,840 Speaker 1: and Paul Sweeney wants to jump in here, I agree 380 00:19:36,840 --> 00:19:40,719 Speaker 1: with that that they've been stuck in a disinflationary deflationary trend. 381 00:19:41,240 --> 00:19:46,280 Speaker 1: But on a nominal GDP basis, they define zombie. How 382 00:19:46,359 --> 00:19:51,640 Speaker 1: zombie is the zombie this morning? Well, so what we're 383 00:19:51,680 --> 00:19:56,600 Speaker 1: seeing in the end is just very very dramatic. We've 384 00:19:56,680 --> 00:20:01,360 Speaker 1: not seen yen moves like this. I frankly can remember 385 00:20:01,440 --> 00:20:04,160 Speaker 1: a weakening move like this in my entire career. So 386 00:20:05,000 --> 00:20:07,840 Speaker 1: this is something we have not seen before. And what 387 00:20:07,920 --> 00:20:11,919 Speaker 1: I would I would say is is so interesting now 388 00:20:12,160 --> 00:20:16,280 Speaker 1: is that the Bank of Japan has been trying in 389 00:20:16,400 --> 00:20:20,560 Speaker 1: different ways to maximize essentially the amount of easy monetary 390 00:20:20,640 --> 00:20:23,880 Speaker 1: policy they deliver, right, And the last formerly they came 391 00:20:23,960 --> 00:20:27,200 Speaker 1: up with was the yield curve control, fixing the ten 392 00:20:27,280 --> 00:20:31,080 Speaker 1: year yield. And what is so kind of ironic about 393 00:20:31,200 --> 00:20:35,800 Speaker 1: that policy is that when global yields under upward pressure, 394 00:20:35,880 --> 00:20:38,880 Speaker 1: as we're seeing everywhere in the world right now, they 395 00:20:38,960 --> 00:20:42,520 Speaker 1: actually get forced because of the yield curve control to 396 00:20:42,720 --> 00:20:45,400 Speaker 1: buy more. And the Bank of Japan had to announce 397 00:20:45,480 --> 00:20:49,040 Speaker 1: overnight that they were buying an unlimited amount of Japanese 398 00:20:49,080 --> 00:20:52,760 Speaker 1: bonds at an option. So you have this ironic situation 399 00:20:52,880 --> 00:20:57,040 Speaker 1: when when the need to ease is going away kind 400 00:20:57,040 --> 00:20:59,440 Speaker 1: of they actually have to do more. It's a pro 401 00:20:59,600 --> 00:21:03,119 Speaker 1: sickle called policy. And that's why the yen is getting 402 00:21:03,240 --> 00:21:07,920 Speaker 1: really interesting now and having an explosive move. So yend 403 00:21:08,200 --> 00:21:10,800 Speaker 1: And when I grew up, the yen was a safe haven. 404 00:21:11,280 --> 00:21:15,800 Speaker 1: Is that still the case in any any regard? So? 405 00:21:17,080 --> 00:21:21,520 Speaker 1: I think, uh, over the last month or so, we've 406 00:21:21,560 --> 00:21:25,040 Speaker 1: seen just a dramatic reassessment of what the what the 407 00:21:25,160 --> 00:21:28,800 Speaker 1: yen is and entails, right, So a lot of people 408 00:21:28,920 --> 00:21:32,040 Speaker 1: have a type of yen hedge in the book, if 409 00:21:32,080 --> 00:21:34,880 Speaker 1: something goes terribly wrong, we're going to make a bit 410 00:21:34,880 --> 00:21:39,320 Speaker 1: of money on having yen calls in our portfolio. Those 411 00:21:39,400 --> 00:21:42,520 Speaker 1: yen calls essentially didn't work at all when you had 412 00:21:42,520 --> 00:21:46,400 Speaker 1: the Russian invasion of retrain they again was just stuck right, 413 00:21:46,400 --> 00:21:49,240 Speaker 1: So those calls were worthless. So I think part of 414 00:21:49,280 --> 00:21:51,879 Speaker 1: the reason why the yen has then turned to become 415 00:21:51,960 --> 00:21:55,080 Speaker 1: so weak if that there's a structural reassessment of whether 416 00:21:55,119 --> 00:21:59,240 Speaker 1: it's worth owning that insurance policy. So people are getting 417 00:21:59,240 --> 00:22:01,400 Speaker 1: out of that ensure runs, and that in the process 418 00:22:01,400 --> 00:22:05,800 Speaker 1: of adjustment entails actually selling the yen. Okay, we're gonna 419 00:22:05,840 --> 00:22:08,240 Speaker 1: sell the yen. I get the dynamics, But I want 420 00:22:08,280 --> 00:22:10,639 Speaker 1: to talk about the lessons we can learn in the 421 00:22:10,680 --> 00:22:15,879 Speaker 1: West from the zombiefication and now this huge first derivative 422 00:22:15,920 --> 00:22:19,159 Speaker 1: move of yen weakness. What does Europe learned from it? 423 00:22:19,200 --> 00:22:24,040 Speaker 1: Where you wrote your authoritative book, Well, so, I think 424 00:22:24,160 --> 00:22:26,520 Speaker 1: I think one thing we've seen in Japan right is 425 00:22:26,680 --> 00:22:32,159 Speaker 1: the financial sector has really been suffering from just a 426 00:22:32,280 --> 00:22:35,679 Speaker 1: yield curve with with no motion at all. That's been 427 00:22:35,760 --> 00:22:39,000 Speaker 1: very little bond trading in Japan for a while since 428 00:22:39,320 --> 00:22:42,439 Speaker 1: these policies introduced. There's a lot of different banks that 429 00:22:42,520 --> 00:22:45,119 Speaker 1: have been to serious trouble than the regional banks. Right, 430 00:22:45,200 --> 00:22:48,159 Speaker 1: so they so having a yield curve that is entirely stuck, 431 00:22:48,320 --> 00:22:53,560 Speaker 1: entirely flat, has since serial costs financial stability issues in 432 00:22:53,640 --> 00:22:55,399 Speaker 1: the in the regional bank and just we're going to 433 00:22:55,480 --> 00:22:58,879 Speaker 1: run out of time? Is this our MMT experiment. It 434 00:22:58,920 --> 00:23:03,000 Speaker 1: means Japan the has two for new fangled theories on 435 00:23:03,080 --> 00:23:08,840 Speaker 1: monetary policy that pre perhaps suggest they don't work. I 436 00:23:08,880 --> 00:23:14,000 Speaker 1: think what we're learning here is that pure inflation targeting, 437 00:23:14,640 --> 00:23:19,080 Speaker 1: it's a policy that can really be causing significant trouble. Right, 438 00:23:19,200 --> 00:23:22,439 Speaker 1: you need to look at financial stability to and in 439 00:23:22,520 --> 00:23:26,159 Speaker 1: Japan now they are facing an issue around stability of 440 00:23:26,160 --> 00:23:29,800 Speaker 1: their currency that they've been not faced for a really decades, 441 00:23:29,920 --> 00:23:32,159 Speaker 1: and that's going to create a change in how the 442 00:23:32,200 --> 00:23:35,040 Speaker 1: Bank of Japan is thinking, I think. And short notice, 443 00:23:35,119 --> 00:23:37,119 Speaker 1: thank you so much for the clinic today ens an 444 00:23:37,160 --> 00:23:40,760 Speaker 1: ordering with excited data. This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. 445 00:23:41,000 --> 00:23:44,359 Speaker 1: Thanks for listening. Join us live weekdays from seven to 446 00:23:44,480 --> 00:23:48,520 Speaker 1: ten am Eastern on Bloomberg Radio and on Bloomberg Television 447 00:23:48,880 --> 00:23:52,880 Speaker 1: each day from six to nine am for insight from 448 00:23:52,920 --> 00:23:57,439 Speaker 1: the best in economics, finance, investment, and international relations. And 449 00:23:57,560 --> 00:24:02,720 Speaker 1: subscribe to the Surveillance podcast on Apple podcast, SoundCloud, Bloomberg 450 00:24:02,760 --> 00:24:06,080 Speaker 1: dot com, and of course, on the terminal. I'm Tom 451 00:24:06,160 --> 00:24:08,440 Speaker 1: keene In. This is Bloomberg.