WEBVTT - NFL Week 1 Slate Breakdown with Will Brinson (Ep 196) 0:00:01.240 --> 0:00:04.840 Hello everyone, and welcome on into the Betting Pros Podcast. 0:00:04.880 --> 0:00:08.000 I'm your host, Thomas Viola and as always for the 0:00:08.119 --> 0:00:10.840 entirety of the football season. Joining me today none other 0:00:10.840 --> 0:00:13.200 than the king of content, the high Septum of Soaps, 0:00:13.240 --> 0:00:17.000 the podcast power listener, and long suffering Cowboys fan, the 0:00:17.079 --> 0:00:18.800 oracle himself. 0:00:18.680 --> 0:00:19.520 Matt Friedman. 0:00:19.600 --> 0:00:21.959 And Matt, it is time for Week one of the 0:00:22.120 --> 0:00:25.400 NFL season. We have games to talk about today, and 0:00:25.440 --> 0:00:27.920 that means we have to bring on some of the 0:00:27.960 --> 0:00:30.639 big guns here. So today we are joined by none 0:00:30.760 --> 0:00:34.320 other than Will Brinson of the Pick six podcast, former 0:00:34.360 --> 0:00:38.519 notary and guys. It is officially football time. Week one 0:00:38.640 --> 0:00:40.839 is here. I know Matt's not excited, but Will, how 0:00:40.880 --> 0:00:41.479 are you feeling? 0:00:42.840 --> 0:00:47.320 I'm thrilled, you know. I love the Rams Bills Thursday 0:00:47.360 --> 0:00:50.560 night game. I don't know if this is we're gonna 0:00:50.800 --> 0:00:53.599 pick it like that opener is just like a choice opener. 0:00:54.040 --> 0:00:56.720 You look at the schedule and there's like so much roadchalk, 0:00:56.760 --> 0:00:57.280 it's crazy. 0:00:57.320 --> 0:01:00.000 I think picking Survivor is gonna be impossible this week. 0:01:00.120 --> 0:01:01.960 And the other thing, like about a week one where 0:01:02.000 --> 0:01:05.280 there looks like there could be chaos is I love 0:01:05.319 --> 0:01:09.080 how we're gonna get so many victory laps and like 0:01:09.400 --> 0:01:12.160 and like and so many realizations that all these takes 0:01:12.160 --> 0:01:14.480 that we've been spewing for like nine months in the 0:01:14.480 --> 0:01:17.880 off season are just completely preposterous and dead ass wrong, 0:01:18.280 --> 0:01:20.920 like when like you know when like the like I'm 0:01:20.920 --> 0:01:23.000 like the Jaguars are just like if I think could 0:01:23.000 --> 0:01:24.360 take on the Jaguars like they're gonna, I think I 0:01:24.360 --> 0:01:25.880 picked them to win the division, They're just gonna like 0:01:25.920 --> 0:01:27.679 lose by forty points, and I wouldn't feel like such 0:01:27.680 --> 0:01:29.600 an idiot. But then you'll realize it a week for 0:01:29.720 --> 0:01:32.360 now that none of that really matters exactly. 0:01:32.400 --> 0:01:34.640 This is smartest man in the room season that we're 0:01:34.680 --> 0:01:38.000 finally ending here with the season finally beginning, everybody's finally 0:01:38.000 --> 0:01:40.040 done having their takes that has to be better than 0:01:40.040 --> 0:01:43.080 everybody else's takes, and we can finally prove it all 0:01:43.440 --> 0:01:46.200 watch some football and you nailed it on the Survivor pools. 0:01:46.240 --> 0:01:49.280 I was fitting with with my roommates last night talking 0:01:49.320 --> 0:01:51.560 about what are we gonna do for our survivor entries? 0:01:52.080 --> 0:01:54.520 And oh man, it is a hard week. 0:01:54.640 --> 0:01:59.440 So many seven point road favorites the first couple weeks 0:01:59.480 --> 0:02:01.800 are gonna be tough for survivor. And obviously we don't 0:02:01.840 --> 0:02:04.200 have a sample size to deal with here. It's going 0:02:04.240 --> 0:02:07.760 to be interesting to see. But Matt will it's time 0:02:07.760 --> 0:02:10.720 to get into some games here, start breaking down your 0:02:10.760 --> 0:02:13.919 favorite spreads of the week. And Matt, I realize we 0:02:13.960 --> 0:02:15.760 haven't even gotten you a word in edgewise here. 0:02:15.800 --> 0:02:16.680 But are you excited? 0:02:17.160 --> 0:02:19.639 Yeah, I actually am excited. I try not to be 0:02:19.680 --> 0:02:23.120 excited about anything, but impossible not to be excited about 0:02:23.120 --> 0:02:26.079 the first week of football. And I will say on 0:02:26.160 --> 0:02:28.760 the week one front, it's that kind of thing where yes, 0:02:28.800 --> 0:02:30.920 there will be a lot of victory laps, but then 0:02:31.000 --> 0:02:34.799 there will also be the really distinct refusal to take 0:02:34.840 --> 0:02:37.040 the l where it's like, look, it's only one week, 0:02:37.440 --> 0:02:39.480 you know, and it's like, okay, yeah, it's only one week, 0:02:39.680 --> 0:02:42.320 but it's always really bad. 0:02:42.600 --> 0:02:44.600 It would be like ninety percent of the carries for 0:02:44.680 --> 0:02:46.600 one guy, ten percent for the other guy that you 0:02:46.639 --> 0:02:47.880 said like basically like me. 0:02:47.919 --> 0:02:49.440 Even Trace Sermon last year, it was like. 0:02:49.560 --> 0:02:51.600 No, it's too early to tell if Trey Sermon is 0:02:51.600 --> 0:02:52.359 gonna be good or bad. 0:02:52.440 --> 0:02:55.320 It's like the week nine, Week nine, I'm screaming, like 0:02:55.360 --> 0:02:55.720 I hate it. 0:02:55.800 --> 0:02:58.920 Ever, No, this guy could come in and I'm gonna 0:02:58.919 --> 0:02:59.960 sure you've got to carry last. 0:03:00.520 --> 0:03:02.960 I had an all time Fantasy draft last year where 0:03:03.000 --> 0:03:08.120 I took Trey Sermon, Mike Davis, and Brandon Ayuk. 0:03:08.560 --> 0:03:10.799 Just fantastic year for me. 0:03:11.160 --> 0:03:14.000 That's a tough one, but I actually have fifteen to 0:03:14.040 --> 0:03:17.520 one in a league. The only mofo who got me 0:03:17.680 --> 0:03:20.360 was prisco Pete. Priscoe got me with his crappy team 0:03:20.480 --> 0:03:23.480 like they actually had some basically prevented me from having 0:03:23.520 --> 0:03:26.120 a perfect season, which is really disturbing. 0:03:26.160 --> 0:03:28.600 Anyway, Hey Giants do yes, exactly. 0:03:28.960 --> 0:03:31.440 Well, we're going to talk about the Giants game and more, 0:03:31.480 --> 0:03:35.200 but first let's talk about the biggest game of the weekend. 0:03:35.800 --> 0:03:38.160 It's the one that we all are waiting to sit 0:03:38.240 --> 0:03:41.880 down and watch, the Baker Mayfield revenge game the Browns 0:03:41.960 --> 0:03:42.920 at the Panthers. 0:03:43.120 --> 0:03:44.880 You're laying a point with the Panthers. 0:03:45.120 --> 0:03:49.040 Will Are you all aboard the Baker Mayfield bandwagon? 0:03:49.120 --> 0:03:49.360 Here? 0:03:49.800 --> 0:03:51.600 Is he going to get it back together? Or are 0:03:51.680 --> 0:03:54.160 you going with the Cleveland Jacoby Brissettes. 0:03:54.760 --> 0:03:56.640 Yeah, a tough spot for me. Is an NC State fan, 0:03:56.720 --> 0:03:57.440 Jacoby Brissett. 0:03:57.480 --> 0:04:00.400 You know the homecoming game here, love love Jacoby did 0:04:00.400 --> 0:04:02.200 a lot of good stuff here in Raleigh. I mean, 0:04:02.200 --> 0:04:04.040 I guess he's playing at Charlotte, which is like might 0:04:04.040 --> 0:04:04.920 as well be Virginia. 0:04:05.280 --> 0:04:08.840 To be perfectly honest, I am like have annoyed it 0:04:08.920 --> 0:04:10.960 myself as we get, you know, to the start of 0:04:11.000 --> 0:04:13.160 the full first full Sunday of the NFL high like 0:04:13.280 --> 0:04:17.520 over the past month plus, have allowed myself and done 0:04:17.560 --> 0:04:20.640 it to myself to like get on board. But I'm like, 0:04:20.680 --> 0:04:22.279 maybe the Panthers. 0:04:21.839 --> 0:04:25.360 Mans our fringe playoff contender. 0:04:24.880 --> 0:04:26.240 And I'm like, what are you doing? Like I know 0:04:26.240 --> 0:04:26.640 what I'm doing. 0:04:26.680 --> 0:04:29.320 It's so stupid and I'm mad at myself. But it's 0:04:29.400 --> 0:04:31.279 like the Tobias few k Meme. He's like, he's like, 0:04:31.400 --> 0:04:32.360 does it ever work for them? 0:04:32.440 --> 0:04:32.480 No? 0:04:32.920 --> 0:04:36.720 But it might work for me at the Panthers. 0:04:37.200 --> 0:04:39.120 I do think the Baker and the Panthers are gonna 0:04:39.120 --> 0:04:40.679 are gonna take care of business against the Browns. 0:04:40.720 --> 0:04:41.320 I mean, I can't. 0:04:41.320 --> 0:04:44.280 I always think back to that game where after Hugh 0:04:44.320 --> 0:04:47.240 je Action got fired by the Browns and then was 0:04:47.320 --> 0:04:50.440 put and played for then started coaching for the Bengals, 0:04:50.480 --> 0:04:53.479 excuse me and Baker Baker like they ran the score 0:04:53.560 --> 0:04:55.239 up of the Bengals It is the best games Baker's 0:04:55.279 --> 0:04:57.720 ever played. He's walking by Hugh on the sidebark like 0:04:57.800 --> 0:04:59.800 run in his mouth. The cameras catch it, and I 0:05:00.000 --> 0:05:02.920 think you're gonna see some of that narrative back against 0:05:02.920 --> 0:05:05.960 the Browns here, who are you know, wounded right like 0:05:05.960 --> 0:05:08.960 they had Deshaun Watson and now he's obviously can't play. 0:05:09.240 --> 0:05:12.120 That's why they moved on from Baker. This is the 0:05:12.279 --> 0:05:15.360 this Panthers team. There are a couple of different ways 0:05:15.360 --> 0:05:18.240 that the season can fail, and they're not difficult to 0:05:18.279 --> 0:05:21.000 like imagine, like Christian McCaffrey gets hurt. This is a 0:05:21.040 --> 0:05:23.800 bunch of games the offensive line isn't very good, or 0:05:23.880 --> 0:05:25.720 those guys get hurt, like one guy get hurts on 0:05:25.720 --> 0:05:27.960 that offensive line. It could really be a Jingo type piece. 0:05:28.400 --> 0:05:29.760 You know, a couple of guys on the defense don't 0:05:29.760 --> 0:05:32.920 take a huge leap. But for Week one, I think 0:05:32.960 --> 0:05:35.880 all those things are pretty safe to worry about. He said, 0:05:36.000 --> 0:05:38.320 knowing that Joseph Person just tweeted that Christian McCaffrey was 0:05:38.360 --> 0:05:40.440 on the injury report with a shit injury, which is 0:05:40.560 --> 0:05:43.920 not ideal for purposes of this Panthers pick. However, he's 0:05:43.960 --> 0:05:46.720 a full participant. They're gonna you saw what they did 0:05:46.720 --> 0:05:48.480 in the first three games last year. You get Christian 0:05:48.560 --> 0:05:51.120 McCaffrey involved in that offense, it's gonna make Baker look good. 0:05:51.200 --> 0:05:53.200 I think Ikey Iguana will have a very nice first game. 0:05:53.240 --> 0:05:54.920 I worry a little bit about his pass pro over 0:05:54.960 --> 0:05:58.120 the full season. And then like the upgrades they made 0:05:58.200 --> 0:06:02.200 Bradley Boseman at center Panthers team, I think can flash 0:06:02.240 --> 0:06:04.200 it off and they have started hot in him at 0:06:04.279 --> 0:06:06.480 rule at home. I like him to take care of 0:06:06.480 --> 0:06:07.760 the Browns in the spot. 0:06:08.279 --> 0:06:10.599 My thing with the My thing with Baker was always 0:06:10.680 --> 0:06:12.479 that all the things that people knocked in for with 0:06:12.480 --> 0:06:13.520 his personality and all that. 0:06:13.880 --> 0:06:16.159 It was always stuff on the field for being a competitor. 0:06:16.360 --> 0:06:19.880 Yes, he got supplexed by that campus police officer at Oklahoma, 0:06:19.920 --> 0:06:21.800 but he kind of cleaned himself up after that and 0:06:21.800 --> 0:06:25.440 everything else was on the field, and I want that 0:06:25.560 --> 0:06:28.360 in my quarterback. And you know, he has had these 0:06:28.360 --> 0:06:32.120 games circled forever. This is absolutely going to be that 0:06:32.160 --> 0:06:34.000 game that he wants to go off in. But Matt, 0:06:34.240 --> 0:06:35.360 you're disagreeing with us here. 0:06:35.880 --> 0:06:38.119 Yeah, So the way we're doing this is that Will 0:06:38.200 --> 0:06:41.240 is taking five spread bets that he likes. I'm taking 0:06:41.279 --> 0:06:43.279 five spread bets that I like. We didn't consult with 0:06:43.320 --> 0:06:45.520 each other beforehand, and it just so happens we're going 0:06:45.560 --> 0:06:48.040 head to head on this one. And when I first 0:06:48.120 --> 0:06:51.160 wrote up this game, it was Brown's plus two and 0:06:51.200 --> 0:06:54.360 a half, and I said that, I think my projection 0:06:54.480 --> 0:06:58.520 of this is Brown's minus half a point. When I 0:06:58.520 --> 0:07:00.960 put it in, the outline is Brown one and a half. 0:07:01.000 --> 0:07:03.800 As we're recording this right now, the consensus line is 0:07:03.839 --> 0:07:06.760 now a pick them. It is actually a pick them 0:07:06.760 --> 0:07:07.640 at DraftKings. 0:07:08.080 --> 0:07:08.200 Uh. 0:07:08.480 --> 0:07:11.600 It is point five towards the Browns at points bet, 0:07:13.240 --> 0:07:17.320 one point going towards Carolina at bet MGM. So like this. 0:07:17.600 --> 0:07:19.160 You know, we are now in the in the pick 0:07:19.200 --> 0:07:22.000 them range, and I think we might continue still to 0:07:22.040 --> 0:07:25.360 see this line move towards move towards the Browns as 0:07:25.400 --> 0:07:27.800 we get into the weekend. I am very much on 0:07:27.840 --> 0:07:31.240 the Browns here, you know, at pick em plus one 0:07:31.240 --> 0:07:33.400 and a half wherever it is that you find it. 0:07:34.160 --> 0:07:36.160 I think they should be favored in this game. 0:07:36.560 --> 0:07:37.000 Uh. 0:07:37.040 --> 0:07:40.360 And you know, I think it's a situation where Baker Mayfield, 0:07:40.720 --> 0:07:44.040 you know, Robbie Anderson, he has a hamstring injury. Uh, 0:07:44.280 --> 0:07:46.560 so his status is a little bit unknown tight end. 0:07:46.560 --> 0:07:48.800 And Thomas he has a rib injury. He's week to week. 0:07:48.880 --> 0:07:52.239 So Baker Mayfield, I don't think he has great weapons 0:07:52.280 --> 0:07:55.440 at the wide receiver position after DJ Moore, and as 0:07:55.480 --> 0:07:57.240 bad as those weapons are, he might not even have 0:07:57.280 --> 0:08:00.160 his full arsenal of weapons going into this game. And 0:08:00.440 --> 0:08:02.640 so I think that's a hindrance. If you look at 0:08:02.640 --> 0:08:04.680 the Cleveland Browns, you know, I think there are some 0:08:04.840 --> 0:08:08.680 trends here that work in their favor non postseason teams. 0:08:08.760 --> 0:08:10.640 So you know, that's very much like the kind of 0:08:10.680 --> 0:08:13.800 team that I think the public would maybe be like 0:08:13.840 --> 0:08:17.440 because of recency bias, prone to bet against early in 0:08:17.480 --> 0:08:20.520 the next season. So you know, a non postseason team 0:08:20.680 --> 0:08:23.720 that's a road underdog in Week one, they're seventy three, 0:08:23.840 --> 0:08:27.840 forty six and four against the spread for nineteen percent ROI. 0:08:28.120 --> 0:08:30.160 And then so that's the Browns. And you look at 0:08:30.160 --> 0:08:34.120 the Panthers. Man head coach Matt Rule has been really 0:08:34.160 --> 0:08:37.000 bad against the spread in situations where he should have 0:08:37.080 --> 0:08:39.120 an edge. So as a favorite, he's three and eight 0:08:39.120 --> 0:08:42.320 against the spread. At home, he's four and twelve against 0:08:42.320 --> 0:08:44.480 the spread. And he put that together with him as 0:08:44.480 --> 0:08:46.400 a home favorite in the spot he is one in 0:08:46.559 --> 0:08:50.439 six against the spread and on the money line as 0:08:50.440 --> 0:08:53.719 a home favorite. This guy just just does not get 0:08:53.760 --> 0:08:56.840 it done. And this matchup I really like in terms 0:08:56.880 --> 0:09:01.640 of the Browns secondary versus Baker Mayfield in the pass catchers. Like, yes, 0:09:01.720 --> 0:09:04.040 it is the revenge game for Baker Mayfield, it is 0:09:04.080 --> 0:09:07.480 also the revenge game for the entirety of the Browns organization, 0:09:08.000 --> 0:09:11.280 right and for like the defense that had to like 0:09:11.440 --> 0:09:14.120 look at the offense and say, like, we could maybe 0:09:14.160 --> 0:09:16.880 get stuff done, we could maybe make the playoffs if 0:09:16.920 --> 0:09:19.320 not for that guy right there. Now they get to 0:09:19.360 --> 0:09:22.000 go up against him. And I think this is a 0:09:22.200 --> 0:09:25.080 very good brown secondary. I have them ranked number three 0:09:25.240 --> 0:09:29.560 overall and they are going against a Panthers pass catching 0:09:29.559 --> 0:09:33.880 group that after DJ Moore is really unproven and really 0:09:33.920 --> 0:09:38.040 thin and number one cornerback Denzel Ward, but I think 0:09:38.080 --> 0:09:39.920 he's one of the best cornerbacks in the league. He's 0:09:39.920 --> 0:09:42.120 been paid like one of the best cornerbacks in the league. 0:09:42.559 --> 0:09:45.520 And he you know, he is going to shadow DJ 0:09:45.640 --> 0:09:47.960 Moore on the perimeter, Like I think that is a 0:09:48.040 --> 0:09:49.960 near certainty. And that's not to say he's going to 0:09:50.000 --> 0:09:52.360 lock him down. But I think it will be hard 0:09:52.400 --> 0:09:55.040 for DJ Moore to have a big enough of a 0:09:55.120 --> 0:09:58.640 game against Denzel Ward to compensate for the lack of 0:09:58.679 --> 0:10:01.199 production they get from all all of the other pass 0:10:01.240 --> 0:10:04.560 catchers who aren't Christian McCaffrey. And if you're going to 0:10:04.679 --> 0:10:07.320 run like the bulk of your passing game through the 0:10:07.400 --> 0:10:10.839 running back, you're probably going to lose. So I am 0:10:11.040 --> 0:10:14.480 very much on the Browns here. Again, whatever number it 0:10:14.559 --> 0:10:18.400 is like at pick them, I haven't projected at you know, 0:10:18.440 --> 0:10:21.280 minus point five, So I don't think there's value if 0:10:21.320 --> 0:10:23.920 you're betting them there. But I think there is probably 0:10:24.000 --> 0:10:25.880 enough value if you're betting them at a pick them 0:10:26.160 --> 0:10:28.840 and still you can get them at plus money or 0:10:28.920 --> 0:10:31.160 your plus odds at at some sites out there, So 0:10:31.240 --> 0:10:32.559 be sure to shop around on this one. 0:10:32.600 --> 0:10:35.000 By the way, I love that, like, hey, we've got 0:10:35.000 --> 0:10:37.120 a smart NFL guy. It's like, yes, I'm going to 0:10:37.200 --> 0:10:40.840 back Matt Rule. It's like maybe maybe I have an idiot. 0:10:40.840 --> 0:10:42.439 Maybe I have an idiot, you know, like that's Matt 0:10:42.480 --> 0:10:43.640 role is pretty terrible. 0:10:44.120 --> 0:10:46.120 I remember what I really wanted the Jets to hire 0:10:46.160 --> 0:10:48.040 Matt Rule, and I was so upset the Panthers got 0:10:48.120 --> 0:10:48.679 him instead. 0:10:49.559 --> 0:10:50.160 Things. 0:10:50.480 --> 0:10:52.040 I'm not gonna say they've worked out for us. 0:10:52.559 --> 0:10:54.559 He's worked out for the Jets, but I mean, yes, 0:10:54.640 --> 0:10:56.000 it's worked out and not like that. 0:10:56.200 --> 0:10:58.400 You're better off not having Matt rule even if it 0:10:58.440 --> 0:10:59.200 hasn't worked out. 0:11:00.120 --> 0:11:02.160 Guys, real quick, I want to talk to you about Sleeper. 0:11:02.440 --> 0:11:05.520 Sleeper is the fastest growing fantasy platform today with millions 0:11:05.559 --> 0:11:08.400 of players. 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One 0:12:21.080 --> 0:12:25.199 could say the Patriots are going down to Miami to 0:12:25.320 --> 0:12:27.880 play the Dolphins here in a coaching matchup rivaled in 0:12:27.960 --> 0:12:31.480 disparity by only Don Shula and Rich Brooks, who had 0:12:31.480 --> 0:12:34.760 a win differential of three hundred and twenty wins when 0:12:34.760 --> 0:12:38.040 they matched up in nineteen ninety five. Belichick, of course, 0:12:38.080 --> 0:12:41.360 has a casual two hundred and ninety and Mike McDaniel, 0:12:41.640 --> 0:12:43.920 the new Dolphins coach zero. 0:12:45.160 --> 0:12:46.800 And as much as I hate to say it. 0:12:47.240 --> 0:12:50.040 I'm afraid that I'm betting on the rookie coach in 0:12:50.120 --> 0:12:52.680 this one. Three and a half point favorites at home 0:12:52.800 --> 0:12:55.079 are the Dolphins. Here, that hook scares me a little bit. 0:12:55.600 --> 0:12:58.520 But I'm looking at the fact that Bill Belichick struggles 0:12:58.520 --> 0:13:01.600 in Miami, but he struggle the Miami against Brian Flores. 0:13:01.640 --> 0:13:03.040 But this team is also loaded. 0:13:03.120 --> 0:13:05.760 I'm stuck between two minds. 0:13:05.760 --> 0:13:07.480 Here will provide some clarity for me. 0:13:08.160 --> 0:13:10.920 Well, I mean, I'm I'm petrified a better in this game. 0:13:10.800 --> 0:13:14.160 Because I think objectively speaking, like say, if you took 0:13:14.200 --> 0:13:16.120 the if you dook the if you do the Patriots 0:13:16.679 --> 0:13:20.640 and you get rid of Belichick and you put them 0:13:20.679 --> 0:13:24.080 in like slime green Seahawks jerseys, I mean they're they're 0:13:24.360 --> 0:13:27.840 they're over under wind. Total is like five and a half. Yeah, right, 0:13:27.920 --> 0:13:29.839 Like this this roster is just not it's not it's 0:13:29.880 --> 0:13:34.320 not great. And I think, you know, I think it's mattsive. 0:13:34.320 --> 0:13:35.640 Matt's got the pick on this one. But I would 0:13:35.640 --> 0:13:37.760 just say, like the to a non factor. It terrifies 0:13:37.800 --> 0:13:43.080 me because I referenced that Tua has like that, I 0:13:43.080 --> 0:13:45.520 said the Patriots could win the game. The CBS has 0:13:45.600 --> 0:13:47.880 me to do five upset games, right, and I listed 0:13:47.880 --> 0:13:49.720 five games and I was like, the Patriots, patris who 0:13:49.720 --> 0:13:52.760 win against Belichick Week one, your rookie head coach, you know, 0:13:52.800 --> 0:13:56.920 to a you know, a young quarterback struggle against Belichick, 0:13:57.120 --> 0:13:58.760 and and they got Maggs two. 0:13:58.720 --> 0:13:59.760 Is three and zer against Belichick. 0:13:59.760 --> 0:14:03.240 But he's for like four hundred passing yards. And then 0:14:03.920 --> 0:14:06.000 and then basically, Dolphins fans came at me, and I 0:14:06.080 --> 0:14:08.200 sort of said that the Dolphins beat writers are homers too, 0:14:08.440 --> 0:14:10.600 and like they were like way too enthusiastic with their reporting, 0:14:10.840 --> 0:14:12.960 and so like everyone came after me for forty eight 0:14:13.000 --> 0:14:15.840 hours NonStop. My mentions were like Dolphin fans screaming at me. 0:14:15.880 --> 0:14:18.400 So I'm like petrified that two is great in this game, 0:14:18.600 --> 0:14:21.400 the Dolphins role, and then I have to relive that. 0:14:21.440 --> 0:14:22.400 Nightmare of two and on. 0:14:22.560 --> 0:14:25.760 So Friedman taught me, taught me into the Patriots saving 0:14:25.840 --> 0:14:26.440 my Sunday. 0:14:26.440 --> 0:14:26.760 Please. 0:14:27.240 --> 0:14:29.960 Well, you know, now I almost hope it happens. That 0:14:30.520 --> 0:14:34.520 would be that'd be great, good entertainment value. Everyone except 0:14:34.520 --> 0:14:36.720 for you would enjoy it. But now I have to 0:14:36.800 --> 0:14:39.760 go with the that proven head coach in this situation. 0:14:39.840 --> 0:14:42.320 And part of it is that cornerback Byron Jones for 0:14:42.400 --> 0:14:45.080 the Dolphins. He's out on pp with an ankle injury, 0:14:45.160 --> 0:14:47.800 and you know, the Patriots by and large, you know, 0:14:47.800 --> 0:14:51.200 they're relatively healthy entering this game. You know, head coach 0:14:51.200 --> 0:14:53.920 Bill Belichick thirty fifteen and two against this bread as 0:14:53.920 --> 0:14:58.200 an underdog. I mean, you know, that's that's a pretty 0:14:58.200 --> 0:15:02.040 good record. And the division road underdogs in the first 0:15:02.040 --> 0:15:05.200 half of the year two hundred and eighty four to 0:15:05.200 --> 0:15:10.240 to eleven with seventeen pushes against the spread. So, you know, 0:15:10.400 --> 0:15:13.560 divisional road underdogs, especially in the first half of the year, 0:15:13.760 --> 0:15:16.160 when I think there are more things that are unknown, 0:15:17.200 --> 0:15:19.760 I think it's it's you know, been a profitable thing 0:15:19.800 --> 0:15:21.680 to go with. And I'm just looking at this game. 0:15:21.880 --> 0:15:25.240 The Patriots run offense against the Dolphins run defense. I 0:15:25.240 --> 0:15:28.240 think that's really where this game is decided. And you know, 0:15:28.320 --> 0:15:32.400 with Damien Harris and Ramandre Stefenson, the Patriots have I 0:15:32.440 --> 0:15:34.760 think one of the like the better I wouldn't say 0:15:34.760 --> 0:15:37.880 like it's like top three, but like top eight running 0:15:37.920 --> 0:15:43.080 back duos in the league. And the opposing defensive line 0:15:43.520 --> 0:15:47.840 for for the Dolphins it's not bad, but it's not 0:15:48.080 --> 0:15:51.520 good in run defense. And I think that is a 0:15:51.560 --> 0:15:53.800 real edge that the Patriots are going to have in 0:15:53.840 --> 0:15:56.200 this game, especially like if you're just looking at statistics 0:15:56.200 --> 0:15:59.600 from last year, the Patriots, you know, routinely top eight 0:16:00.080 --> 0:16:04.160 in different rushing metrics, the Dolphins middle of the league two, 0:16:04.560 --> 0:16:08.400 bottom quarter of the league in defensive rush metrics, and 0:16:08.600 --> 0:16:12.040 without Brian Flores there. Tommy you mentioned it like Flores 0:16:12.320 --> 0:16:15.600 was the defensive brain on that team, and because he 0:16:15.760 --> 0:16:18.160 was coming from the Belichick coaching tree, I think he 0:16:18.240 --> 0:16:21.400 really did give them a head to head edge against 0:16:21.400 --> 0:16:24.960 the Patriots and that is gone, so that defense really 0:16:24.960 --> 0:16:27.280 could take a step back. And I know there have 0:16:27.320 --> 0:16:30.840 been reports about the Patriots, who were a power rushing, 0:16:31.120 --> 0:16:35.240 gap heavy team for years, about them struggling to incorporate 0:16:35.320 --> 0:16:40.160 zone blocking schemes into their offense. To me, like, obviously, 0:16:40.360 --> 0:16:43.600 if they're incorporating zone blocking schemes, you would rather have 0:16:43.640 --> 0:16:46.280 that going well than not. I don't think. I don't 0:16:46.280 --> 0:16:49.920 think that means that they are totally abandoning the power run. 0:16:50.000 --> 0:16:51.520 I think it just means that they're going to get 0:16:51.560 --> 0:16:54.520 more varied, more inventive with what they're doing in the 0:16:54.600 --> 0:16:57.480 running game, so that there's more of a mix. And 0:16:57.680 --> 0:17:01.360 the Patriots, Yeah, they just said right guard Shack Mason 0:17:02.000 --> 0:17:05.120 via trade. They lost left guard Ted Carrisson free agency, 0:17:05.240 --> 0:17:08.280 but otherwise they have good continuity along the offensive line. 0:17:08.320 --> 0:17:12.200 They have four starters, all of whom have started multiple 0:17:12.320 --> 0:17:15.960 years with the Patriots on the offensive line. And then 0:17:16.000 --> 0:17:18.800 they added in the first round left guard Cole Strange, who, yeah, 0:17:18.800 --> 0:17:21.520 they overdrafted him, but like that dude was one of 0:17:21.600 --> 0:17:27.000 the most dominant interior run blocking offensive linemen in the draft. 0:17:27.280 --> 0:17:30.439 So I think they're just going to just ram it 0:17:30.720 --> 0:17:35.000 against the Dolphins for the entirety of the game. Keep 0:17:35.040 --> 0:17:38.720 that offense of the Dolphins on the sideline for as 0:17:38.720 --> 0:17:42.280 long as possible, and nose tackled. Raekwon Davis last year 0:17:42.320 --> 0:17:46.040 had a thirty six point one run defense grade and 0:17:46.160 --> 0:17:48.960 a twenty nine point one tackling grade. Like that is 0:17:49.000 --> 0:17:51.439 the point of attack, like right up the middle of 0:17:51.480 --> 0:17:54.480 their defense. The Dolphins are weak against the run. So 0:17:55.040 --> 0:17:57.280 I think that this is going to be a game 0:17:57.359 --> 0:18:00.320 that is closer than the three and a half. If 0:18:00.320 --> 0:18:02.760 it were three, I would probably still be betting it. 0:18:03.119 --> 0:18:05.480 At two and a half, I don't believe I would 0:18:05.480 --> 0:18:07.320 touch it, although, like I do think that these two 0:18:07.359 --> 0:18:09.879 teams are pretty closely matched, and I don't think the 0:18:09.920 --> 0:18:13.400 home field advantage at Miami is really all that large. 0:18:13.560 --> 0:18:15.719 So I am on the Patriots in this spot at 0:18:15.720 --> 0:18:16.359 three and a half. 0:18:16.960 --> 0:18:18.800 See you make me feel better with that too. 0:18:18.840 --> 0:18:22.480 And I like the idea that the zone blocking power thing. 0:18:22.760 --> 0:18:24.639