Speaker 1: Hello everyone, and welcome on into the Betting Pros Podcast.
Speaker 1: I'm your host, Thomas Viola and as always for the
Speaker 1: entirety of the football season. Joining me today none other
Speaker 1: than the king of content, the high Septum of Soaps,
Speaker 1: the podcast power listener, and long suffering Cowboys fan, the
Speaker 1: oracle himself.
Speaker 2: Matt Friedman.
Speaker 1: And Matt, it is time for Week one of the
Speaker 1: NFL season. We have games to talk about today, and
Speaker 1: that means we have to bring on some of the
Speaker 1: big guns here. So today we are joined by none
Speaker 1: other than Will Brinson of the Pick six podcast, former
Speaker 1: notary and guys. It is officially football time. Week one
Speaker 1: is here. I know Matt's not excited, but Will, how
Speaker 1: are you feeling?
Speaker 3: I'm thrilled, you know. I love the Rams Bills Thursday
Speaker 3: night game. I don't know if this is we're gonna
Speaker 3: pick it like that opener is just like a choice opener.
Speaker 3: You look at the schedule and there's like so much roadchalk,
Speaker 3: it's crazy.
Speaker 4: I think picking Survivor is gonna be impossible this week.
Speaker 3: And the other thing, like about a week one where
Speaker 3: there looks like there could be chaos is I love
Speaker 3: how we're gonna get so many victory laps and like
Speaker 3: and like and so many realizations that all these takes
Speaker 3: that we've been spewing for like nine months in the
Speaker 3: off season are just completely preposterous and dead ass wrong,
Speaker 3: like when like you know when like the like I'm
Speaker 3: like the Jaguars are just like if I think could
Speaker 3: take on the Jaguars like they're gonna, I think I
Speaker 3: picked them to win the division, They're just gonna like
Speaker 3: lose by forty points, and I wouldn't feel like such
Speaker 3: an idiot. But then you'll realize it a week for
Speaker 3: now that none of that really matters exactly.
Speaker 1: This is smartest man in the room season that we're
Speaker 1: finally ending here with the season finally beginning, everybody's finally
Speaker 1: done having their takes that has to be better than
Speaker 1: everybody else's takes, and we can finally prove it all
Speaker 1: watch some football and you nailed it on the Survivor pools.
Speaker 1: I was fitting with with my roommates last night talking
Speaker 1: about what are we gonna do for our survivor entries?
Speaker 2: And oh man, it is a hard week.
Speaker 1: So many seven point road favorites the first couple weeks
Speaker 1: are gonna be tough for survivor. And obviously we don't
Speaker 1: have a sample size to deal with here. It's going
Speaker 1: to be interesting to see. But Matt will it's time
Speaker 1: to get into some games here, start breaking down your
Speaker 1: favorite spreads of the week. And Matt, I realize we
Speaker 1: haven't even gotten you a word in edgewise here.
Speaker 2: But are you excited?
Speaker 5: Yeah, I actually am excited. I try not to be
Speaker 5: excited about anything, but impossible not to be excited about
Speaker 5: the first week of football. And I will say on
Speaker 5: the week one front, it's that kind of thing where yes,
Speaker 5: there will be a lot of victory laps, but then
Speaker 5: there will also be the really distinct refusal to take
Speaker 5: the l where it's like, look, it's only one week,
Speaker 5: you know, and it's like, okay, yeah, it's only one week,
Speaker 5: but it's always really bad.
Speaker 3: It would be like ninety percent of the carries for
Speaker 3: one guy, ten percent for the other guy that you
Speaker 3: said like basically like me.
Speaker 4: Even Trace Sermon last year, it was like.
Speaker 3: No, it's too early to tell if Trey Sermon is
Speaker 3: gonna be good or bad.
Speaker 4: It's like the week nine, Week nine, I'm screaming, like
Speaker 4: I hate it.
Speaker 3: Ever, No, this guy could come in and I'm gonna
Speaker 3: sure you've got to carry last.
Speaker 1: I had an all time Fantasy draft last year where
Speaker 1: I took Trey Sermon, Mike Davis, and Brandon Ayuk.
Speaker 2: Just fantastic year for me.
Speaker 3: That's a tough one, but I actually have fifteen to
Speaker 3: one in a league. The only mofo who got me
Speaker 3: was prisco Pete. Priscoe got me with his crappy team
Speaker 3: like they actually had some basically prevented me from having
Speaker 3: a perfect season, which is really disturbing.
Speaker 2: Anyway, Hey Giants do yes, exactly.
Speaker 1: Well, we're going to talk about the Giants game and more,
Speaker 1: but first let's talk about the biggest game of the weekend.
Speaker 1: It's the one that we all are waiting to sit
Speaker 1: down and watch, the Baker Mayfield revenge game the Browns
Speaker 1: at the Panthers.
Speaker 2: You're laying a point with the Panthers.
Speaker 1: Will Are you all aboard the Baker Mayfield bandwagon?
Speaker 4: Here?
Speaker 1: Is he going to get it back together? Or are
Speaker 1: you going with the Cleveland Jacoby Brissettes.
Speaker 4: Yeah, a tough spot for me. Is an NC State fan,
Speaker 4: Jacoby Brissett.
Speaker 3: You know the homecoming game here, love love Jacoby did
Speaker 3: a lot of good stuff here in Raleigh. I mean,
Speaker 3: I guess he's playing at Charlotte, which is like might
Speaker 3: as well be Virginia.
Speaker 4: To be perfectly honest, I am like have annoyed it
Speaker 4: myself as we get, you know, to the start of
Speaker 4: the full first full Sunday of the NFL high like
Speaker 4: over the past month plus, have allowed myself and done
Speaker 4: it to myself to like get on board. But I'm like,
Speaker 4: maybe the Panthers.
Speaker 3: Mans our fringe playoff contender.
Speaker 4: And I'm like, what are you doing? Like I know
Speaker 4: what I'm doing.
Speaker 3: It's so stupid and I'm mad at myself. But it's
Speaker 3: like the Tobias few k Meme. He's like, he's like,
Speaker 3: does it ever work for them?
Speaker 2: No?
Speaker 4: But it might work for me at the Panthers.
Speaker 3: I do think the Baker and the Panthers are gonna
Speaker 3: are gonna take care of business against the Browns.
Speaker 4: I mean, I can't.
Speaker 3: I always think back to that game where after Hugh
Speaker 3: je Action got fired by the Browns and then was
Speaker 3: put and played for then started coaching for the Bengals,
Speaker 3: excuse me and Baker Baker like they ran the score
Speaker 3: up of the Bengals It is the best games Baker's
Speaker 3: ever played. He's walking by Hugh on the sidebark like
Speaker 3: run in his mouth. The cameras catch it, and I
Speaker 3: think you're gonna see some of that narrative back against
Speaker 3: the Browns here, who are you know, wounded right like
Speaker 3: they had Deshaun Watson and now he's obviously can't play.
Speaker 3: That's why they moved on from Baker. This is the
Speaker 3: this Panthers team. There are a couple of different ways
Speaker 3: that the season can fail, and they're not difficult to
Speaker 3: like imagine, like Christian McCaffrey gets hurt. This is a
Speaker 3: bunch of games the offensive line isn't very good, or
Speaker 3: those guys get hurt, like one guy get hurts on
Speaker 3: that offensive line. It could really be a Jingo type piece.
Speaker 3: You know, a couple of guys on the defense don't
Speaker 3: take a huge leap. But for Week one, I think
Speaker 3: all those things are pretty safe to worry about. He said,
Speaker 3: knowing that Joseph Person just tweeted that Christian McCaffrey was
Speaker 3: on the injury report with a shit injury, which is
Speaker 3: not ideal for purposes of this Panthers pick. However, he's
Speaker 3: a full participant. They're gonna you saw what they did
Speaker 3: in the first three games last year. You get Christian
Speaker 3: McCaffrey involved in that offense, it's gonna make Baker look good.
Speaker 3: I think Ikey Iguana will have a very nice first game.
Speaker 3: I worry a little bit about his pass pro over
Speaker 3: the full season. And then like the upgrades they made
Speaker 3: Bradley Boseman at center Panthers team, I think can flash
Speaker 3: it off and they have started hot in him at
Speaker 3: rule at home. I like him to take care of
Speaker 3: the Browns in the spot.
Speaker 1: My thing with the My thing with Baker was always
Speaker 1: that all the things that people knocked in for with
Speaker 1: his personality and all that.
Speaker 2: It was always stuff on the field for being a competitor.
Speaker 1: Yes, he got supplexed by that campus police officer at Oklahoma,
Speaker 1: but he kind of cleaned himself up after that and
Speaker 1: everything else was on the field, and I want that
Speaker 1: in my quarterback. And you know, he has had these
Speaker 1: games circled forever. This is absolutely going to be that
Speaker 1: game that he wants to go off in. But Matt,
Speaker 1: you're disagreeing with us here.
Speaker 5: Yeah, So the way we're doing this is that Will
Speaker 5: is taking five spread bets that he likes. I'm taking
Speaker 5: five spread bets that I like. We didn't consult with
Speaker 5: each other beforehand, and it just so happens we're going
Speaker 5: head to head on this one. And when I first
Speaker 5: wrote up this game, it was Brown's plus two and
Speaker 5: a half, and I said that, I think my projection
Speaker 5: of this is Brown's minus half a point. When I
Speaker 5: put it in, the outline is Brown one and a half.
Speaker 5: As we're recording this right now, the consensus line is
Speaker 5: now a pick them. It is actually a pick them
Speaker 5: at DraftKings.
Speaker 3: Uh.
Speaker 5: It is point five towards the Browns at points bet,
Speaker 5: one point going towards Carolina at bet MGM. So like this.
Speaker 5: You know, we are now in the in the pick
Speaker 5: them range, and I think we might continue still to
Speaker 5: see this line move towards move towards the Browns as
Speaker 5: we get into the weekend. I am very much on
Speaker 5: the Browns here, you know, at pick em plus one
Speaker 5: and a half wherever it is that you find it.
Speaker 5: I think they should be favored in this game.
Speaker 4: Uh.
Speaker 5: And you know, I think it's a situation where Baker Mayfield,
Speaker 5: you know, Robbie Anderson, he has a hamstring injury. Uh,
Speaker 5: so his status is a little bit unknown tight end.
Speaker 5: And Thomas he has a rib injury. He's week to week.
Speaker 5: So Baker Mayfield, I don't think he has great weapons
Speaker 5: at the wide receiver position after DJ Moore, and as
Speaker 5: bad as those weapons are, he might not even have
Speaker 5: his full arsenal of weapons going into this game. And
Speaker 5: so I think that's a hindrance. If you look at
Speaker 5: the Cleveland Browns, you know, I think there are some
Speaker 5: trends here that work in their favor non postseason teams.
Speaker 5: So you know, that's very much like the kind of
Speaker 5: team that I think the public would maybe be like
Speaker 5: because of recency bias, prone to bet against early in
Speaker 5: the next season. So you know, a non postseason team
Speaker 5: that's a road underdog in Week one, they're seventy three,
Speaker 5: forty six and four against the spread for nineteen percent ROI.
Speaker 5: And then so that's the Browns. And you look at
Speaker 5: the Panthers. Man head coach Matt Rule has been really
Speaker 5: bad against the spread in situations where he should have
Speaker 5: an edge. So as a favorite, he's three and eight
Speaker 5: against the spread. At home, he's four and twelve against
Speaker 5: the spread. And he put that together with him as
Speaker 5: a home favorite in the spot he is one in
Speaker 5: six against the spread and on the money line as
Speaker 5: a home favorite. This guy just just does not get
Speaker 5: it done. And this matchup I really like in terms
Speaker 5: of the Browns secondary versus Baker Mayfield in the pass catchers. Like, yes,
Speaker 5: it is the revenge game for Baker Mayfield, it is
Speaker 5: also the revenge game for the entirety of the Browns organization,
Speaker 5: right and for like the defense that had to like
Speaker 5: look at the offense and say, like, we could maybe
Speaker 5: get stuff done, we could maybe make the playoffs if
Speaker 5: not for that guy right there. Now they get to
Speaker 5: go up against him. And I think this is a
Speaker 5: very good brown secondary. I have them ranked number three
Speaker 5: overall and they are going against a Panthers pass catching
Speaker 5: group that after DJ Moore is really unproven and really
Speaker 5: thin and number one cornerback Denzel Ward, but I think
Speaker 5: he's one of the best cornerbacks in the league. He's
Speaker 5: been paid like one of the best cornerbacks in the league.
Speaker 5: And he you know, he is going to shadow DJ
Speaker 5: Moore on the perimeter, Like I think that is a
Speaker 5: near certainty. And that's not to say he's going to
Speaker 5: lock him down. But I think it will be hard
Speaker 5: for DJ Moore to have a big enough of a
Speaker 5: game against Denzel Ward to compensate for the lack of
Speaker 5: production they get from all all of the other pass
Speaker 5: catchers who aren't Christian McCaffrey. And if you're going to
Speaker 5: run like the bulk of your passing game through the
Speaker 5: running back, you're probably going to lose. So I am
Speaker 5: very much on the Browns here. Again, whatever number it
Speaker 5: is like at pick them, I haven't projected at you know,
Speaker 5: minus point five, So I don't think there's value if
Speaker 5: you're betting them there. But I think there is probably
Speaker 5: enough value if you're betting them at a pick them
Speaker 5: and still you can get them at plus money or
Speaker 5: your plus odds at at some sites out there, So
Speaker 5: be sure to shop around on this one.
Speaker 3: By the way, I love that, like, hey, we've got
Speaker 3: a smart NFL guy. It's like, yes, I'm going to
Speaker 3: back Matt Rule. It's like maybe maybe I have an idiot.
Speaker 4: Maybe I have an idiot, you know, like that's Matt
Speaker 4: role is pretty terrible.
Speaker 1: I remember what I really wanted the Jets to hire
Speaker 1: Matt Rule, and I was so upset the Panthers got
Speaker 1: him instead.
Speaker 4: Things.
Speaker 2: I'm not gonna say they've worked out for us.
Speaker 3: He's worked out for the Jets, but I mean, yes,
Speaker 3: it's worked out and not like that.
Speaker 4: You're better off not having Matt rule even if it
Speaker 4: hasn't worked out.
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Speaker 1: conditions apply see Sleeper dot comforty tens. This next game, though,
Speaker 1: involves a new coaching higher and one that has been
Speaker 1: around the block for a little bit of time. One
Speaker 1: could say the Patriots are going down to Miami to
Speaker 1: play the Dolphins here in a coaching matchup rivaled in
Speaker 1: disparity by only Don Shula and Rich Brooks, who had
Speaker 1: a win differential of three hundred and twenty wins when
Speaker 1: they matched up in nineteen ninety five. Belichick, of course,
Speaker 1: has a casual two hundred and ninety and Mike McDaniel,
Speaker 1: the new Dolphins coach zero.
Speaker 2: And as much as I hate to say it.
Speaker 1: I'm afraid that I'm betting on the rookie coach in
Speaker 1: this one. Three and a half point favorites at home
Speaker 1: are the Dolphins. Here, that hook scares me a little bit.
Speaker 2: But I'm looking at the fact that Bill Belichick struggles
Speaker 2: in Miami, but he struggle the Miami against Brian Flores.
Speaker 2: But this team is also loaded.
Speaker 1: I'm stuck between two minds.
Speaker 2: Here will provide some clarity for me.
Speaker 4: Well, I mean, I'm I'm petrified a better in this game.
Speaker 3: Because I think objectively speaking, like say, if you took
Speaker 3: the if you dook the if you do the Patriots
Speaker 3: and you get rid of Belichick and you put them
Speaker 3: in like slime green Seahawks jerseys, I mean they're they're
Speaker 3: they're over under wind. Total is like five and a half. Yeah, right,
Speaker 3: Like this this roster is just not it's not it's
Speaker 3: not great. And I think, you know, I think it's mattsive.
Speaker 3: Matt's got the pick on this one. But I would
Speaker 3: just say, like the to a non factor. It terrifies
Speaker 3: me because I referenced that Tua has like that, I
Speaker 3: said the Patriots could win the game. The CBS has
Speaker 3: me to do five upset games, right, and I listed
Speaker 3: five games and I was like, the Patriots, patris who
Speaker 3: win against Belichick Week one, your rookie head coach, you know,
Speaker 3: to a you know, a young quarterback struggle against Belichick,
Speaker 3: and and they got Maggs two.
Speaker 4: Is three and zer against Belichick.
Speaker 3: But he's for like four hundred passing yards. And then
Speaker 3: and then basically, Dolphins fans came at me, and I
Speaker 3: sort of said that the Dolphins beat writers are homers too,
Speaker 3: and like they were like way too enthusiastic with their reporting,
Speaker 3: and so like everyone came after me for forty eight
Speaker 3: hours NonStop. My mentions were like Dolphin fans screaming at me.
Speaker 3: So I'm like petrified that two is great in this game,
Speaker 3: the Dolphins role, and then I have to relive that.
Speaker 4: Nightmare of two and on.
Speaker 3: So Friedman taught me, taught me into the Patriots saving
Speaker 3: my Sunday.
Speaker 4: Please.
Speaker 5: Well, you know, now I almost hope it happens. That
Speaker 5: would be that'd be great, good entertainment value. Everyone except
Speaker 5: for you would enjoy it. But now I have to
Speaker 5: go with the that proven head coach in this situation.
Speaker 5: And part of it is that cornerback Byron Jones for
Speaker 5: the Dolphins. He's out on pp with an ankle injury,
Speaker 5: and you know, the Patriots by and large, you know,
Speaker 5: they're relatively healthy entering this game. You know, head coach
Speaker 5: Bill Belichick thirty fifteen and two against this bread as
Speaker 5: an underdog. I mean, you know, that's that's a pretty
Speaker 5: good record. And the division road underdogs in the first
Speaker 5: half of the year two hundred and eighty four to
Speaker 5: to eleven with seventeen pushes against the spread. So, you know,
Speaker 5: divisional road underdogs, especially in the first half of the year,
Speaker 5: when I think there are more things that are unknown,
Speaker 5: I think it's it's you know, been a profitable thing
Speaker 5: to go with. And I'm just looking at this game.
Speaker 5: The Patriots run offense against the Dolphins run defense. I
Speaker 5: think that's really where this game is decided. And you know,
Speaker 5: with Damien Harris and Ramandre Stefenson, the Patriots have I
Speaker 5: think one of the like the better I wouldn't say
Speaker 5: like it's like top three, but like top eight running
Speaker 5: back duos in the league. And the opposing defensive line
Speaker 5: for for the Dolphins it's not bad, but it's not
Speaker 5: good in run defense. And I think that is a
Speaker 5: real edge that the Patriots are going to have in
Speaker 5: this game, especially like if you're just looking at statistics
Speaker 5: from last year, the Patriots, you know, routinely top eight
Speaker 5: in different rushing metrics, the Dolphins middle of the league two,
Speaker 5: bottom quarter of the league in defensive rush metrics, and
Speaker 5: without Brian Flores there. Tommy you mentioned it like Flores
Speaker 5: was the defensive brain on that team, and because he
Speaker 5: was coming from the Belichick coaching tree, I think he
Speaker 5: really did give them a head to head edge against
Speaker 5: the Patriots and that is gone, so that defense really
Speaker 5: could take a step back. And I know there have
Speaker 5: been reports about the Patriots, who were a power rushing,
Speaker 5: gap heavy team for years, about them struggling to incorporate
Speaker 5: zone blocking schemes into their offense. To me, like, obviously,
Speaker 5: if they're incorporating zone blocking schemes, you would rather have
Speaker 5: that going well than not. I don't think. I don't
Speaker 5: think that means that they are totally abandoning the power run.
Speaker 5: I think it just means that they're going to get
Speaker 5: more varied, more inventive with what they're doing in the
Speaker 5: running game, so that there's more of a mix. And
Speaker 5: the Patriots, Yeah, they just said right guard Shack Mason
Speaker 5: via trade. They lost left guard Ted Carrisson free agency,
Speaker 5: but otherwise they have good continuity along the offensive line.
Speaker 5: They have four starters, all of whom have started multiple
Speaker 5: years with the Patriots on the offensive line. And then
Speaker 5: they added in the first round left guard Cole Strange, who, yeah,
Speaker 5: they overdrafted him, but like that dude was one of
Speaker 5: the most dominant interior run blocking offensive linemen in the draft.
Speaker 5: So I think they're just going to just ram it
Speaker 5: against the Dolphins for the entirety of the game. Keep
Speaker 5: that offense of the Dolphins on the sideline for as
Speaker 5: long as possible, and nose tackled. Raekwon Davis last year
Speaker 5: had a thirty six point one run defense grade and
Speaker 5: a twenty nine point one tackling grade. Like that is
Speaker 5: the point of attack, like right up the middle of
Speaker 5: their defense. The Dolphins are weak against the run. So
Speaker 5: I think that this is going to be a game
Speaker 5: that is closer than the three and a half. If
Speaker 5: it were three, I would probably still be betting it.
Speaker 5: At two and a half, I don't believe I would
Speaker 5: touch it, although, like I do think that these two
Speaker 5: teams are pretty closely matched, and I don't think the
Speaker 5: home field advantage at Miami is really all that large.
Speaker 5: So I am on the Patriots in this spot at
Speaker 5: three and a half.
Speaker 4: See you make me feel better with that too.
Speaker 3: And I like the idea that the zone blocking power thing.
Speaker 3: Like if Belichick doesn't think the zone blocking is going
Speaker 3: to work in Week one, he's not gonna go full
Speaker 3: zone blocking against Miami, He's just gonna run the He's
Speaker 3: gonna run.
Speaker 4: The power formation. Though. I mean, I cannot get over
Speaker 4: the fact though that.
Speaker 3: He has Matt Patricia Jo Jones running his offense Like
Speaker 3: that is like the weirdest thing on the planet.
Speaker 5: Yes, yes, but he is still he is still the
Speaker 5: one running that offense. Yeah, Like as weird as this sounds,
Speaker 5: Belichick back in the day with the Browns, maybe I
Speaker 5: shouldn't say this because it probably doesn't mean like anything
Speaker 5: good happened. But he obviously was like a defensive mastermind
Speaker 5: with the Giants. When he came to the Browns, he
Speaker 5: was calling the plays on offense. They did not have it,
Speaker 5: They did not have an offen defensive coordinator for the
Speaker 5: first couple of years that he was there, Like he
Speaker 5: was the one overseeing the offense. There were other guys
Speaker 5: who were there, like you know, in in the meetings,
Speaker 5: position groups running it. But like Belichick really was the
Speaker 5: one who was overseeing the offense, and I think it's
Speaker 5: going to be a similar situation now.
Speaker 3: He also had save it as his defensive coordinator, so
Speaker 3: he felt good about No. I mean, like you know,
Speaker 3: and I mean he trusted Romeo and his son, So
Speaker 3: I mean maybe he you know, maybe he thinks they
Speaker 3: can handle the defense and he'll run the I'd be like, hey,
Speaker 3: we're running this and Patricia's just like reading off a
Speaker 3: play sheet. That's like and Joe Judges like, like, you know,
Speaker 3: sitting there with his thumbs there, he's there, Yeah, exactly.
Speaker 3: So maybe maybe said that's I hadn't thought through that
Speaker 3: process that I like that.
Speaker 1: I'm still just worried about the fact that I can't
Speaker 1: believe the Dolphins swept the Patriots last year and I
Speaker 1: know Flores has gone, and a lot of it was
Speaker 1: the fact that he was the he was the guy
Speaker 1: who changed the system for them and was able to
Speaker 1: buck the trends of Belichick beating his disciples, of Belichick
Speaker 1: just dominating the division. But at the same time, I
Speaker 1: just feel like at the end of the day, this
Speaker 1: Miami team is so much more talented them. I don't
Speaker 1: think it's as even a matchup, especially when you look
Speaker 1: at it on the offensive side there. But it's Week
Speaker 1: one and nobody knows anything, and I'm probably the one
Speaker 1: wrong here, so I will happily defer on that. If
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Speaker 1: so make sure to turn on those notifications so you
Speaker 1: can be alerted when new episodes are up and to
Speaker 1: claim your prize. Talk about two Super Bowl contenders going
Speaker 1: at it here, guys, we'll probably be seeing this matchup
Speaker 1: in February. We've got the Jacksonville Jaguars facing off against
Speaker 1: the Washington Commies. Bet MGM has the Commanders at minus
Speaker 1: two and a half at home in this game, Carson
Speaker 1: Wentz versus Trevor Lawrence, the Battle of the Jay. Who's
Speaker 1: coming out on top?
Speaker 3: I mean, I've got that I've been saying for like
Speaker 3: three months of the Jaguars, We're just gonna win this game,
Speaker 3: Like I.
Speaker 4: Think the Jaguars.
Speaker 3: For one, the NFL schedule maker did not do Carson
Speaker 3: Wentz any favors because the last time he played a
Speaker 3: football game in the NFL was the horrible Week eighteen
Speaker 3: loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars that caused the Colts to
Speaker 3: miss the playoffs of major mercy, go insane and force
Speaker 3: a trade of Carson Wentz out of town. And so now,
Speaker 3: of course the NFL since Jacksonville to Washington, like, hey,
Speaker 3: do you enjoy that PTSD from from Jacksonville.
Speaker 4: Well, we're sending some some teal your way, Carson. And
Speaker 4: not only that, the.
Speaker 3: Jaguars have hired Carson Wentz's old coach, Doug Peterson, like
Speaker 3: Irban Meyer, was unquestionably the worst higher in the history
Speaker 3: of professional football, like abject failure and disaster. Petere Priscow
Speaker 3: told me on on the on our Our Friday pot
Speaker 3: the Pick six podcast. He was talking about because he
Speaker 3: lived in Jacksonville. He does that the you know, does
Speaker 3: the weekly radio show. He knows that the organization really
Speaker 3: is like the stories, He's like the stories I'm hearing now,
Speaker 3: like about Urban and like it gets worse and worse,
Speaker 3: like the stuff hadn't even told publicly.
Speaker 4: It's just like he's just treating, you know, just a disaster.
Speaker 5: Would we say, would we say that they were urban legends? Yeah,
Speaker 5: but I just had to drop it in. Sorry, sorry
Speaker 5: to interrupt for that horrible, horrible joke.
Speaker 4: I heard all puns, all puns I'm here for.
Speaker 3: And like, Doug Pearson doesn't even have to be like
Speaker 3: Bill Belichick in two thousand and five.
Speaker 4: He like he just has to be not.
Speaker 3: Urban Meyer, and and immediately this team is gonna be
Speaker 3: so much better. I think he'll come and prepared. I'm
Speaker 3: not sold on. I think Washington maybe a little bit
Speaker 3: better than I'm giving him credit for. But I think
Speaker 3: Jackson was a lot better than people are giving him
Speaker 3: credit for. I think the jag Wars just win this
Speaker 3: game and we're like, oh right, Trevor Lawrence is awesome.
Speaker 3: It was just Urban Meyer who screwed him up.
Speaker 1: I mean, I have a hard time poking holes in
Speaker 1: the Trevor Lawrence is good at football argument?
Speaker 2: But what do you think, Matt?
Speaker 5: Yeah?
Speaker 4: I like it.
Speaker 5: I mean when this line opened months ago, it was
Speaker 5: Jaggs plus four and a half and it was an
Speaker 5: auto bet. Then it was just like, Okay, there's no way,
Speaker 5: no way that Washington should be favorite. And the fact
Speaker 5: that this moved through the key number of three down
Speaker 5: to two and a half is a real sign of
Speaker 5: either the market being bullish on the Jags or really
Speaker 5: against Carson Wentz and the Washington Commanders. And honestly it's
Speaker 5: it's maybe a combination of both.
Speaker 2: Exactly.
Speaker 1: I don't I don't want to be betting on Washington.
Speaker 1: I don't necessarily wanted to be betting on Jacksonville. But
Speaker 1: I'd rather bet on Doug Peterson than Ron Rivera, and
Speaker 1: I'd rather bet on Trevor Lawrence than Carson Wentz's That's
Speaker 1: where I have to go in this one.
Speaker 4: Yeah.
Speaker 1: Absolutely, the next game up here, guys, the Colts and
Speaker 1: the Texans. We've got some division rivalry going on in
Speaker 1: Week one. The Texans seven point home dogs. In this spot,
Speaker 1: I kind of like, lovey, what do you think?
Speaker 2: Will?
Speaker 3: I think this is a freedom in a game too, right,
Speaker 3: because I'm I'm scared. Do you know the Colts haven't
Speaker 3: won a Week one openers twenty thirteen.
Speaker 4: Yeah, like that is crazy. How how can you go?
Speaker 3: Was a decade with no wins in week one of
Speaker 3: like multiple coaches but like multa like several good like
Speaker 3: Andrew Luck, Philip River. I mean just yeah, just good.
Speaker 3: It's wild to me. So I'm like, maybe lean Texans,
Speaker 3: but I'm kind of scared.
Speaker 5: Yeah, I'm I'm there. I'm on the Texans. I first
Speaker 5: grabbed this at eight and a half, it's now at seven.
Speaker 5: I don't think I would bet it past the seven.
Speaker 5: I mean, I mean, for I definitely wouldn't bet bet
Speaker 5: it past the seven. But I still like it at seven. Uh,
Speaker 5: you know, the Colts linebacker should kill Leonard. He has
Speaker 5: returned to practice. He probably is going to play pretty
Speaker 5: nice by you.
Speaker 3: By the way, I'm not gonna get I'm not gonna
Speaker 3: get off Darius until like week five.
Speaker 5: Yeah no, it's it's written down here in my notes.
Speaker 5: That's that's the only way. That's the only way. Yeah.
Speaker 5: Uh you know, but he's dealing with, uh, with an
Speaker 5: injury that he's had for months. I like, I know
Speaker 5: he's very likely to play in this game. Like, I
Speaker 5: don't see him missing week one, but I don't think
Speaker 5: he's going to be in full football shape, and so
Speaker 5: that's something to monitor here. And the Colts, like they
Speaker 5: have a really interesting situation. And so they have winnable
Speaker 5: but divisional road games in weeks one and two, and
Speaker 5: then in week three they have a home opener against
Speaker 5: the Chiefs, who have three extra days of rest. Good
Speaker 5: luck with that game. And then they have three more
Speaker 5: divisional games sandwiched around a road game at the Broncos
Speaker 5: on short rest. That is a horrible opening schedule. And
Speaker 5: that's five divisional games in the first seven weeks of
Speaker 5: the season, and then they don't have another divisional game
Speaker 5: until Week eighteen against the Texans. So like it's not
Speaker 5: as if like week one is ever a must win game,
Speaker 5: but like, man, it's kind it's kind of a must
Speaker 5: win game for the Colts already because like the road
Speaker 5: is kind of rough after this. And well, as you mentioned,
Speaker 5: the Colts have been bad in week one, like historically
Speaker 5: Frank Reich three and one against the spread in week one.
Speaker 4: And ru, I mean, how is it even possible? Yeah?
Speaker 5: Yeah, And and Matt Ryan, like, I mean he's five
Speaker 5: and nine against the spread in week one also, So
Speaker 5: like you put those two together and it's like, maybe
Speaker 5: this doesn't start out all that well for them. And
Speaker 5: you know the Houston Texans. You know, we talked about
Speaker 5: divisional underdogs before, especially like a teams that didn't make
Speaker 5: the postseason fifty three twenty three and two against the
Speaker 5: spread in Week one, like that is that is dynamic there.
Speaker 5: And the matchup I'm looking at for this game is
Speaker 5: quarterback Davis Mills against the Colts secondary. And that secondary
Speaker 5: is not last year's unit at all. So Kenny Moore,
Speaker 5: he's still there in the slot, but the perimeter starters
Speaker 5: at quarnerback Xavier Rhodes and Rokisen they are gone. Backup
Speaker 5: quarterback TJ. Carey is gone. At safety, the Colts had
Speaker 5: five players play one hundred snaps last year. Four of
Speaker 5: them are gone. So it is a really rebuilt back
Speaker 5: end unit. And defensive quarter Matt Everfluse this is gone.
Speaker 5: This is the yeah, right, yeah, that is the big one.
Speaker 5: So it's not just a lot of turnover within their
Speaker 5: their cover unit. It's that the guy who oversaw the
Speaker 5: cover unit is also gone. And now they have Gus Bradley, who,
Speaker 5: like I would say, like feels like a master of mediocrity,
Speaker 5: Like he's on his third coordinator job in as many years,
Speaker 5: and he has like a break but don't bend defense,
Speaker 5: Like over the past three years.
Speaker 4: There's just snapping half guys.
Speaker 5: There's no other way to describe it. Like his defenses
Speaker 5: over the past three years have been number ten in
Speaker 5: yards allowed but number twenty one in scoring. Like it's
Speaker 5: just like that, that's not something that makes sense, but
Speaker 5: for him it kind of does. And you know, they
Speaker 5: added Stefan Gilmore as their number one corner. That's a
Speaker 5: good addition, but he's thirty two years old. In September,
Speaker 5: you know, they brought in Brandon fashion Facisan faxin I
Speaker 5: don't even know how to pronounce his name. That probably
Speaker 5: says more about me, but it also says a little
Speaker 5: something about him, Like he's going to be the other
Speaker 5: starting perimeter corner for them, and the only reason he's
Speaker 5: there is because he's a Gus Bradley favorite who knows
Speaker 5: the system from their time together the past four years
Speaker 5: with the Chargers and then the Raiders last year. But
Speaker 5: he is a total liability in coverage for his career
Speaker 5: one point three to three yards per coverage snap played,
Speaker 5: including the playoffs and they're starting safety. Nick Cross is
Speaker 5: a rookie like Bradley, does not seem like the kind
Speaker 5: of coordinator who can quickly pull together a secondary with
Speaker 5: that much turnover in vulnerability. And then as for Davis Mills, Yeah,
Speaker 5: like it was an up and down rookie season for him,
Speaker 5: but he finished the year once he returned to the
Speaker 5: starting lineup on a pretty good hot streak twelve hundred
Speaker 5: yards past, seen nine touchdowns of just two interceptions. Like
Speaker 5: he actually looked like a rookie who was ascending. And that's,
Speaker 5: you know, in comparison to a lot of the other
Speaker 5: rookies who were playing last year who just didn't really
Speaker 5: improve throughout the season. So he could maybe experience the
Speaker 5: second year progression that a lot of quarterbacks experience. He
Speaker 5: still has some continuity with offensive coordinator pet Hamilton, who
Speaker 5: was his position coach in the passing game coordinator last year.
Speaker 5: He's got some interesting weapons there. Brandon Cooks, a very
Speaker 5: steady professional receiver, and then Nico Collins as an upside
Speaker 5: wide receiver, and Brevin Jordan, as you know, a young,
Speaker 5: pretty intriguing pass catching tight end who was the best
Speaker 5: tight end prospect of his high school recruitment class was
Speaker 5: pretty good. In college, I think went underdrafted last year,
Speaker 5: and in the preseason was getting the super majority of
Speaker 5: first team snaps. Like you put all that together and
Speaker 5: it's like you could see this situation, especially in garbage time,
Speaker 5: getting the back door cover where against the secondary that
Speaker 5: just hasn't hasn't merged yet, being able to move down
Speaker 5: the field and cover for us. So that's where I
Speaker 5: am Texans plus seven. I think the Colts win. I
Speaker 5: think they finally get the win, but I think the Texans.
Speaker 3: Cover just I was just gonna say to him, Gus Bradley,
Speaker 3: like if you look at his I was, I was
Speaker 3: sitting here just going through like Gus Bradley's because he
Speaker 3: when he when he he basically got the Jaguars job
Speaker 3: because the Legion of Boom was awesome.
Speaker 4: Which like I mean, you know it was, yeah, could work.
Speaker 4: I mean it was awesome. Yeah, It's like it's gonna work.
Speaker 3: If you can get it right, like coaching up the
Speaker 3: Legion of Boom. And then obviously, you know, Jacksonville was
Speaker 3: terrible throughout his entire tenure.
Speaker 4: With the Chargers.
Speaker 3: He had like two good years as defensive coordinator. But
Speaker 3: if you look at it, it's like, I mean, Derwin James,
Speaker 3: Joey Bosea, and Melvin Ingram were I.
Speaker 4: Mean, he had like players. Yeah, Mi Sequille Leonard is
Speaker 4: a player.
Speaker 3: The Forest Butner is a player, but that secondary does
Speaker 3: not have the same talent that he had his previous stops.
Speaker 3: And I think that is that could be a problem
Speaker 3: for this Cults defense, especially early in the season.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, Matt, you and I talked about it
Speaker 1: on the win Totals episode. With this Texans team, they're
Speaker 1: numbers four and a half, which I think is ridiculous
Speaker 1: for a team that won four games last year and
Speaker 1: is better now than they were last season.
Speaker 2: I like Lovey Smith, but the most important thing for
Speaker 2: me here is that this roster isn't actually one of
Speaker 2: a rebuilding team. It's not super young. It's actually one
Speaker 2: of the older rosters in the league.
Speaker 1: There are gonna be enough veterans there that they're not
Speaker 1: going to be making all of the rookie mistakes and
Speaker 1: the growing pains, and I think that they're going to
Speaker 1: be able to come together in a way where the
Speaker 1: Texans can at least cover this game, if not surprise
Speaker 1: a lot of people maybe not here, but this year
Speaker 1: we'll have to say, but I think that I'm completely
Speaker 1: with you at Texans plus seven. Guys, football season is here,
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Speaker 2: Now back to the show.
Speaker 1: Let's move on here to the Giants and the Titans,
Speaker 1: because you guys are in agreement on this one.
Speaker 2: The Titans are laying.
Speaker 1: Five and a half at home and you're both riding
Speaker 1: Giants plus five and a half.
Speaker 4: Well, yeah, I think you know.
Speaker 3: We our job when we're I mean, by the way,
Speaker 3: so thank Our job is to watch football and talk
Speaker 3: about it, which is so stupid by the way, but
Speaker 3: it's awesome, don't be wrong. But the you know, you
Speaker 3: look at our job also is to look at what
Speaker 3: happened over the course of the off seasons, determined Okay,
Speaker 3: what does this do to what are these sort of
Speaker 3: it's due to a particular team, Like, you know, is
Speaker 3: this team you know up down? Like where do I
Speaker 3: think they'll go? And I don't think the Giants are
Speaker 3: going to be good. And Joe Shane like.
Speaker 4: Even basically came out and said it. He's like, they like,
Speaker 4: what do you think about your exportations this year?
Speaker 3: He's like, We've got to play the hand we were dealt,
Speaker 3: which is which is like GM four, I'm expected to
Speaker 3: win three games at draft bright showing it's like basically
Speaker 3: basically why so the Giants go out and they hire
Speaker 3: Brian Dable, massive upgrade of Joe Judge, they draft Evan Neil,
Speaker 3: massive upgrade on the offensive line.
Speaker 4: There's a there's a.
Speaker 3: Gonna be an an like an emphasis on trying to
Speaker 3: make Daniel Jones look good because it'll make you, even
Speaker 3: if he doesn't look good enough that you keep him
Speaker 3: at least look good in the eyes of ownership. They
Speaker 3: had a great draft, and on the other side of it,
Speaker 3: the Titans trade A J. Brown in the draft and
Speaker 3: like switch to Trailon Burks, which is a massive, massive downgrade. Like,
Speaker 3: you know, I don't want to dog Trailon Burks as
Speaker 3: a prospect, but a J. Brown is a top ten
Speaker 3: fifteen NFL receiver easily, and you know.
Speaker 4: Traylon Burks is not.
Speaker 3: They have Robert Woods, who is a great run blocking
Speaker 3: wide receiver. That's very nice for Derek Henry, but Henry
Speaker 3: sort of, you know, I think they have to be
Speaker 3: a little lighter with him in terms of his carries
Speaker 3: this year, especially out of the gate, given what happened
Speaker 3: last year. I think the Giants were just like live
Speaker 3: to win this game outright and well by virtue of
Speaker 3: just improving with the coaching staff and the weapons too.
Speaker 3: Wando Robinson I think can have a big year. This
Speaker 3: is a spot where the to me, it's an easy
Speaker 3: bet on the Giants against the Tennessee team that has
Speaker 3: severely downgraded now with Harrol Landry out too for the season,
Speaker 3: downgraded on both sides of the ball over the course
Speaker 3: of the all season.
Speaker 2: Are you saying you're not a believer in Ryan Tannehill.
Speaker 4: I like Ryan Tannehill, but I don't.
Speaker 6: I'm not like, it didn't make me feel anything like, like, man,
Speaker 6: Ryan Tannehill, like you know, like I say, you know,
Speaker 6: you say like you're like Tom Brady, you know, if
Speaker 6: you feel.
Speaker 1: This team is playing out the string this year until
Speaker 1: they can start Malik wellis.
Speaker 2: But Matt, you're also on the Giants.
Speaker 5: Yeah, And you know we talked about the Titans in
Speaker 5: earlier episodes, you know, betting the under on their season
Speaker 5: win total. They're a bet against team for me pretty
Speaker 5: repeatedly throughout this season, and it starts here. I do
Speaker 5: have some pause in that the Giants offensive line, although
Speaker 5: it was upgraded with the addition of Evan Neil, it
Speaker 5: has suffered a series of injuries during the preseason and
Speaker 5: so it's better than it was last year, but like
Speaker 5: it's thin. It does not have really any depth there,
Speaker 5: especially on the interior. So that is something that makes
Speaker 5: me a little bit nervous, you know that said, I
Speaker 5: just think this this Titans team is massively overrated based
Speaker 5: on what they did last year. And Daniel Jones twelve
Speaker 5: and six against the spread on the road, eleven and
Speaker 5: four against the spread as a road underdog, Like this
Speaker 5: is just like the kind of guy you want to
Speaker 5: back in this situation. And Mike Rabel for the Tennessee
Speaker 5: Titans one to three against the spread in Week one
Speaker 5: fifteen to twenty one and one against the spread as
Speaker 5: a favorite, and like I feel like that makes sense,
Speaker 5: Like Rabel is the kind of coach you want to
Speaker 5: back as an underdog and want to bet against as
Speaker 5: a favorite because he has a really conservative way of
Speaker 5: managing his team. And for me, some of this comes
Speaker 5: down to the Giants secondary versus the Titans pass catchers.
Speaker 5: Like I think if you look at what these teams
Speaker 5: did last year and the players that they have, the
Speaker 5: edge goes to the Titans and a lot of situations
Speaker 5: except in this situation, but this is one of the
Speaker 5: most important matchups of the game, Like the passing game
Speaker 5: is often what dictates how teams perform against the spread.
Speaker 5: And the Giants, I think, you know, they've had turnover
Speaker 5: in their secondary, Like it's not a good secondary. They
Speaker 5: lost cornerback James Bradbury also like safety slash cornerback Logan
Speaker 5: Ryan Andrew Bill Peppers lost all of those guys this offseason,
Speaker 5: but they still have some pretty decent continuity, Like all
Speaker 5: five projected starters this year were on the team last
Speaker 5: year and got meaningful playing time, so they at least
Speaker 5: have some continuity as a unit. And number one cornerback
Speaker 5: of Dori Jackson, I think is a really underappreciated player.
Speaker 5: Like not only has he exhibited the ability to shatterw
Speaker 5: receivers throughout his career, but unlike most perimeter corners, he
Speaker 5: actually does line up in the slot, and I think
Speaker 5: that gives you know, defensive coordinator Don Martindell or Wink
Speaker 5: Martindell more flexibility with his coverages. And you know, Jackson,
Speaker 5: he's never had a coverage grade lower than sixty five,
Speaker 5: and last year he was really dominant, zero point sixty
Speaker 5: one yards per coverage snap, four point nine to eight
Speaker 5: yards per target allowed. Like that puts him in like
Speaker 5: some pretty elite territory. And it's just like, I know,
Speaker 5: it's just one year, but like last year, he played
Speaker 5: really well. And so if he can man up either
Speaker 5: either Robert Woods or Traylon Burks on the preimi and
Speaker 5: then if the Giants can shut down the other receiver
Speaker 5: with safety help, Westbrook Akine and Austin Hooper are those
Speaker 5: two guys gonna make the Giants pay, like probably not.
Speaker 5: And so even with the subpar secondary, I think the
Speaker 5: Giants can kind of like force quote unquote force the
Speaker 5: Titans to run the ball more, as if they need
Speaker 5: any more incentive to give Derek Henry the ball. But
Speaker 5: if the Titans are just running every play, I think
Speaker 5: that means that this is a pretty close game, like
Speaker 5: more of a field goal game than a five and
Speaker 5: a half point game. So I will take the extra
Speaker 5: points here like will with the Giants.
Speaker 1: The next game up is the Niners at the Bears,
Speaker 1: the Bears getting seven points at Soldier Field against San Francisco. Here, Matt,
Speaker 1: you are on this one with Bears plus seven. I
Speaker 1: am right there with you.
Speaker 5: Yeah, it feels kind of disgusting, but this is just
Speaker 5: what the number says. Here and the forty nine ers
Speaker 5: are already dealing with some pretty magnificant injuries, the most
Speaker 5: recent of which is George Kittle misspracticed on Wednesday. Be
Speaker 5: sure to monitor that, but you know, non zero chance
Speaker 5: he doesn't play in Week one. They're starting singer Daniel Brunskill.
Speaker 5: He has a hamstring injury. It looks like he's going
Speaker 5: to be out and two guys who were definitely out
Speaker 5: in the secondary, cornerback Jason Verrett and safety Jimmy Ward.
Speaker 5: So that is all pretty significant. And I just want
Speaker 5: to say, like brun skills, if he is out, that
Speaker 5: means that the forty nine ers are starting three new
Speaker 5: interior players on their offensive line, Like it seems like
Speaker 5: that might be something that could be detrimental to starting
Speaker 5: quarterback Trey Lance, who is like just entering his first
Speaker 5: year as a starter. And also I just want to say,
Speaker 5: like Verrett and Ward being out, that leaves them incredibly
Speaker 5: thin in the secondary after they had offseason departures of
Speaker 5: starters Josh Norman, Kawan Williams, and jew Quisky Tart as
Speaker 5: well as the depth safety Tevon Wilson. So that secondary
Speaker 5: for the forty nine ers is really really thin. And
Speaker 5: you know, Tom, we talked about this on the show
Speaker 5: last year, like Kyle Shanahan as a favorite, Okay, Like
Speaker 5: that's all you have to tell me. Kyle Shanahan is
Speaker 5: a favorite, and I'm gonna be betting against him right
Speaker 5: He's sixteen twenty four and one against the spread as
Speaker 5: a favorite, fifteen twenty one and one against the spread
Speaker 5: without Garoppolo as his starter and in Week one, oh
Speaker 5: four and one against the spread just absolute, absolutely horrible
Speaker 5: at the beginning of the year. And you know I
Speaker 5: mentioned the forty nine Ers secondary, This matchup to me
Speaker 5: comes down to justin fields against that secondary. Uh, they
Speaker 5: are really thin and as bad as the Bears offense
Speaker 5: was last year, like it wasn't much worse in dropback
Speaker 5: EPA than the forty nine Ers defense was. So I
Speaker 5: think this is more of an even matchup with fields
Speaker 5: against that secondary than most people would imagine. And it's
Speaker 5: it's it's a tough matchup overall. For Phil is no
Speaker 5: question going against a defensive line that is going to
Speaker 5: keep him pressured all game. But the good thing is
Speaker 5: he's a dual threat quarterback. He was the number one
Speaker 5: dual threat quarterback as a high school recruit in twenty eighteen.
Speaker 5: He has this scrambling ability to escape the pocket and
Speaker 5: pick up chunk yardage. So even though he is going
Speaker 5: to be under pressure, I think he has the skill
Speaker 5: set to minimize the impact of that pressure in this game.
Speaker 5: And with Darnell Mooney and Cole Comet, I think he
Speaker 5: has the guys he needs to attack the what I
Speaker 5: would say is a weekend forty nine or secondary down
Speaker 5: the field and in the middle of the field. And
Speaker 5: I'm not going to put too much stock in the preseason,
Speaker 5: but it is worth noting he actually looked pretty good,
Speaker 5: pretty good in the preseason, better than any of the
Speaker 5: other quarterbacks in the preseason in his draft class. And
Speaker 5: you know, a quarterback entering his second season, it's not
Speaker 5: unthinkable for him to take a significant step forward in
Speaker 5: that year. So I am on the Bears here at
Speaker 5: plus seven you.
Speaker 1: Especially after how that preseason and look, I can't believe
Speaker 1: we're still getting seven points with the Bears in this game.
Speaker 4: Well, Bears have a really bad roster. Yeah they do.
Speaker 4: It is it is one of the two worst rosters
Speaker 4: in football with the Falcons.
Speaker 3: I think, yeah, like there's like there's three guys from
Speaker 3: the on the Bears that you would be like maybe
Speaker 3: four if you count, maybe like four guys where you'd
Speaker 3: be like, oh, yes, I would want that person on
Speaker 3: my roster if I was starting a team. It's like
Speaker 3: movie roquand Jalen Johnson and Fields, Like the field scene
Speaker 3: is interesting.
Speaker 4: What if if Fields takes a massive leap, what is
Speaker 4: the Bear ceiling this year, like win total wise, we're
Speaker 4: trying to figure it out.
Speaker 5: Six wins, right, even with like a massive leap, that's
Speaker 5: like yeah, yeah, I mean I think it would be
Speaker 5: similar to what we saw out of Deshaun Watson with
Speaker 5: the Texans early on, where like he's playing really well
Speaker 5: and it doesn't matter because because they're still losing a
Speaker 5: whole bunch of games.
Speaker 1: Yeah, they did an interesting thing investing in like wide receivers, who,
Speaker 1: let's face it, are cheap.
Speaker 2: But we haven't seen them be bad. We haven't seen
Speaker 2: them be good, but we haven't seen them be bad.
Speaker 2: They've just been stuck behind other guys. I think that
Speaker 2: there's some other Yeah.
Speaker 4: Look, I'm a big galaxy brain guy. That is a
Speaker 4: galaxy brain theory. It's like, no one's seen these guys suck.
Speaker 4: They just never play.
Speaker 1: Yeah, they never played because they were behind really good
Speaker 1: wide receivers. I think it's an interesting strategy. I don't
Speaker 1: think it's gonna work out for them long term, but
Speaker 1: I maybe they get lucky and one of them breaks
Speaker 1: out and Darnell Mooney has someone opposite him, but Justin
Speaker 1: Field is gonna be running for his life anyhow. I
Speaker 1: still like the Bears in this game for everything that
Speaker 1: Matt said, and especially because I already have the clip
Speaker 1: saved from two episodes ago when Matt told me I
Speaker 1: was just flat out wrong about the fact that Trey
Speaker 1: Lance is bad at football, and I am saving that
Speaker 1: for around Week.
Speaker 2: Nine or ten, when the Niners have five wins.
Speaker 4: Trailer's better not be bad at football. I will be
Speaker 4: very poor in best pot is bad at football.
Speaker 1: My argument is this, everything that they said about Zach
Speaker 1: Wilson coming out to the NFL b YU small sample size,
Speaker 1: didn't play anyone cupcake schedule like all of that Trey Lance.
Speaker 1: Really he was playing the heavy hitters at North Dakota State.
Speaker 3: My argum would be that let's like upside riddled quarterback
Speaker 3: is drafted by a team that trades up for him,
Speaker 3: sits for a year, and then it gets to be
Speaker 3: unleashed in super quarterback friendly offense with tons of weapons
Speaker 3: and offensive mastermind calling the place, which is like they're like,
Speaker 3: very closely resembles what happened to Mahomes. I do not
Speaker 3: see he's gonna throw fifty and five thousand just that
Speaker 3: like and look, Kyle Shannan may be paniccked. I mean,
Speaker 3: I think it's possible that Kyle Shannon always wanted Jimmy
Speaker 3: g on the roster as sort of like a fail
Speaker 3: safe just in case trades not ready. Yeah, and I
Speaker 3: think there'll be ups and downs, but I would be
Speaker 3: I would be surprised if he wasn't hashtag good at football.
Speaker 1: I'm I know this is my hot take, but I
Speaker 1: stand it's a hill I'm willing to die on here
Speaker 1: the next game.
Speaker 4: I hope, I hope that you're dead by week five,
Speaker 4: no offense none.
Speaker 2: Taking the next game up here though, we got two
Speaker 2: more to get to the Bucks and the Cowboys are
Speaker 2: going at it, and the Cowboys two and a half
Speaker 2: point home dogs in this spot. Will you're on this
Speaker 2: game here and you are not siding with Tom Brady,
Speaker 2: you are going with the Boys.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm gonna takenna take the Cowboys as a as
Speaker 3: a short dog at home. I think that this is
Speaker 3: probably best to wait until Sunday night. You know, it's
Speaker 3: the first date at football game of the year. Everyone's
Speaker 3: going to bet on it. People try to get their
Speaker 3: money back. We'll be chasing the favorite Tom Brady on
Speaker 3: the road, you know, against the Cowboys team that like,
Speaker 3: if you look at these these two teams, maybe more
Speaker 3: than anybody or any teams over the last month, the
Speaker 3: general public has been selling these two teams or maybe
Speaker 3: even buying the Eagles and buying.
Speaker 4: The Saints as a result of selling these teams.
Speaker 3: And it's largely offensive line injuries that have caused that
Speaker 3: sort of market shift. I think people, well, with the
Speaker 3: Tyrone Smith news that he's out to December, I think
Speaker 3: people everyone is just abandoning ship on the Cowboys, and
Speaker 3: I get it, like it's it's it's very problematic. But
Speaker 3: I think you make the case that the Buccaneers offensive
Speaker 3: line injuries are almost just as bad relative to the
Speaker 3: quarterback under center because Tom Brady interior pressure is a problem.
Speaker 3: Dan Quinn has played, you know, he's coached a ton
Speaker 3: against the Buccaneers. I don't think he'll be shocked by
Speaker 3: a large portion of the personnel when he's coaching on defense.
Speaker 3: They'll I think they'll rush to Marcus Lawrence and Michael
Speaker 3: Parsons on the inside the force to create really bad
Speaker 3: miss matches for for you know, for for the blocking
Speaker 3: schemes of the Buccaneers. And you're talking about you know,
Speaker 3: like coaching wise, you know, Sean Payton's departure concerns me
Speaker 3: for New Orleans.
Speaker 4: I don't.
Speaker 3: I think I'm talking enough about the fact that Bruce
Speaker 3: Arians has gone and you still have of course Buyer
Speaker 3: Leftficks calling the plays and Tom Brady you know, operating it.
Speaker 3: But like, is Todd bow Is going to take a
Speaker 3: different approach to the offense than than Bruce Arians. Probably
Speaker 3: he's just inherently more conservative. And so I think the
Speaker 3: Cowboys can and generate enough offense to uh to pull that.
Speaker 3: I think I think they'll win this one, and I
Speaker 3: probably shouldn't be home dogs, even with the injuries that
Speaker 3: they've dealt with.
Speaker 1: Matt, I know that you're not necessarily on this game,
Speaker 1: but we talked about last episode.
Speaker 2: You're not high on the Cowboys this year?
Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean, uh, I I'm very skeptical about what
Speaker 5: is going on with their their injury situation at at
Speaker 5: left tackles specifically, and you know, it means that they're
Speaker 5: having to to move guys around and elevate players, you know,
Speaker 5: move swing tackles into starting positions and swing interior alignment
Speaker 5: and starting left guard positions. And so I'm just I'm
Speaker 5: skeptical overall, but you know, I I will say that,
Speaker 5: uh you know, we uh at betting pros do have projections,
Speaker 5: official projections.
Speaker 4: Uh.
Speaker 5: Over I'm overseeing a team with uh different different people
Speaker 5: who are you know, giving their projections. And we have
Speaker 5: actually the Cowboys as a team to bet on in
Speaker 5: this game, and we have them as they should be
Speaker 5: zero point five underdogs and they're you know, two and
Speaker 5: a half underdogs. I wouldn't bet this out right if
Speaker 5: you're on the Cowboys, I would just tease it, you know,
Speaker 5: because you get to go through the key numbers of
Speaker 5: three and seven. Uh And at this point, you know.
Speaker 4: There's so many good teaser legs out there this week.
Speaker 5: Yeah yeah, and so at this point even eight, you
Speaker 5: know in the NFL, with some teams going for two
Speaker 5: like that can it's not a key number, but it's
Speaker 5: also nice to get that one too in a teaser.
Speaker 5: So if you're on the Cowboys, that's the way that
Speaker 5: I would pay Jaguars Cowboys.
Speaker 3: We are discussed the Jaguars, right, I'd like, I can't
Speaker 3: remember what games I've talked about at this point, Like
Speaker 3: over the course is like Jaguars Cowboys teaser both up
Speaker 3: to eight and a half is a pretty nice little yes.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I like that one.
Speaker 2: I like that a lot.
Speaker 1: And do you guys like the Monday night football game
Speaker 1: here Broncos at Seahawks, the Hawks getting six and a
Speaker 1: half points at all, and the Russell Wilson revenge game
Speaker 1: here will you're going with the Hawks?
Speaker 4: Yees?
Speaker 3: So see it's not Russell Wilson revenge game, it's Pete
Speaker 3: Carroll revenge game. Like Pete Carroll needs a revenge more
Speaker 3: than Russell Wilson does. Russell, if Russell goes back.
Speaker 4: And loses, at least be like all right, you know,
Speaker 4: like you know Pete. I mean like if.
Speaker 3: Pete Carroll the Seaws is down as you can get
Speaker 3: right now, nobody wants to buy it on the Seahawks.
Speaker 3: My theory is that Pete Carroll's trying to recreate twenty
Speaker 3: eleven to twenty twelve, which two eleven Hue, which is
Speaker 3: like they went seven to nine. So it's like, not
Speaker 3: they won the division when you're at that losing record
Speaker 3: the beat Quake season, but it's like they weren't good
Speaker 3: teams one game one week they lost. I think it
Speaker 3: was like Week three, twenty eleven. They lost to the
Speaker 3: Brown six to three. But like, that's what Pete Carroll's
Speaker 3: going for. He wants to muddle this thing up. He
Speaker 3: wants to run the football. He wants it to be
Speaker 3: a sloppy, ugly game. He didn't want to, you know,
Speaker 3: to turn the ball over. That's why Lock's not playing.
Speaker 3: He's play defense, run the ball, aton and drag people
Speaker 3: into the mud with him.
Speaker 4: And I think he can.
Speaker 3: I think he can pull it off, especially early when
Speaker 3: he Knowsrussell Wilson's tendencies. I think Russ will try to,
Speaker 3: you know, act like he's this is not a huge deal.
Speaker 3: But I think even robotic Russ knows how, you know,
Speaker 3: just how insane it is.
Speaker 4: He's going back to Seattle for his first game with
Speaker 4: the Broncos. I like the Seahawks into the crowded, be rowdy.
Speaker 4: I don't think it'll be like Tom Brady with You're like,
Speaker 4: oh thanks Tom.
Speaker 3: I think we'll be like, dude, you kind of bailed
Speaker 3: on us, like again, SIGs, it never came back Dad,
Speaker 3: and then you know, and like, and I think they'll
Speaker 3: be I think they'll cheer pretty loudly against him, maybe
Speaker 3: respect him early on. But uh, I think the Seahawks
Speaker 3: I go a little you know, if they know Hacket's
Speaker 3: ever been a head coach, I don't know if I
Speaker 3: buy like they have offensive line issues in Denver, the
Speaker 3: defense won't be as good as Fangio going. I think
Speaker 3: there's a lot of different sort of angles here that
Speaker 3: people are just not not seeing because of the Russell
Speaker 3: Wilson factor. I like the Seahawks and maybe pulling an upset.
Speaker 1: Honestly, I have the Seahawks have to be the worst
Speaker 1: team in the league this year, But the fact is
Speaker 1: I can also see them.
Speaker 3: I mean, the Jaguars beat the Colts two years ago
Speaker 3: there were the word and then didn't win another game
Speaker 3: like anything.
Speaker 4: You know, Yeah, also.
Speaker 1: True and wild, and I could see this team muddling
Speaker 1: through several wins. Like you said, play sloppy. It's a
Speaker 1: Gino Smith led run, heavy offense where you're just trying
Speaker 1: to go in and get it done and gets as
Speaker 1: much as you can.
Speaker 2: I see completely where you're coming from here.
Speaker 1: I don't I certainly don't want to lay six and
Speaker 1: a half with the Broncos on the road in this spot.
Speaker 5: Matt, what do you think, Yeah, I'm more on the
Speaker 5: side of the Seahawks, but I think this team is
Speaker 5: so disgusting that I definitely would not bet it. What
Speaker 5: I do agree with will On is that this is
Speaker 5: going to be an ugly game. I think like the
Speaker 5: the idea of Pete Carroll wanting this to be sloppy,
Speaker 5: you know, like run the ball three yards in a
Speaker 5: clouded dust. I think that's that's totally how this game
Speaker 5: plays out. And I think, you know, with Russell Wilson,
Speaker 5: like he's a good quarterback, but it is a quarterback
Speaker 5: in a new offensive system, new receivers, new team. It
Speaker 5: wouldn't be surprising to see the Broncos. I wouldn't say,
Speaker 5: like struggle on offense, but just not be as good
Speaker 5: to start the season as they will be to finish
Speaker 5: the season on offense. And so you put all of
Speaker 5: that together and I would say, if I'm betting on
Speaker 5: this game, I would be betting the under. You can
Speaker 5: get it forty five and a half, sorry, forty five
Speaker 5: at DraftKings. The consensus line looking at betting pros right
Speaker 5: now is forty four and a half, and internally we
Speaker 5: have this projected at forty two point eight. So I
Speaker 5: think there is some value here on the under. If
Speaker 5: I'm betting this game, I am taking the under here.
Speaker 2: I'm completely with you on that. I could see this
Speaker 2: being like a twenty four to ten finish or something
Speaker 2: like that.
Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, I give it. The under is one of
Speaker 4: my best bets on my podcast Recivs. I think it's him.
Speaker 3: I think you're gonna have value on the Seahawks unders
Speaker 3: for the first three weeks.
Speaker 4: Of the season. Frankly, like you can even like first
Speaker 4: half hunders, full game unders. You look at those games
Speaker 4: that were Gino played.
Speaker 3: I mean they put thirty one up, they blew the
Speaker 3: Jaguars out thirty one to seven, but that game still
Speaker 3: would have flown way under. That thirteen ten game against Pittsburgh.
Speaker 3: I think it may take a couple of weeks.
Speaker 4: For the books to realize just how slow Pete Carroll
Speaker 4: wants to play.
Speaker 1: Yeah, all right, guys, well that is going to do
Speaker 1: it for our games of the week here for week one,
Speaker 1: it is officially football time. We're running long in the tooth.
Speaker 1: And I know I'm putting you guys on the spot here.
Speaker 1: It's not on the rundown, but I want to know
Speaker 1: if you're making it. We talked about Survivor picks at
Speaker 1: the beginning of the show. I want to bring it
Speaker 1: back around. If you have to pick one.
Speaker 2: Game for a Survivor league this week, will where are
Speaker 2: you going?
Speaker 4: Well?
Speaker 3: First of all, podcast running a long and no real
Speaker 3: semblance of a rundown is basically my.
Speaker 4: Daily NFL podcast for CBS, so fits the bill very
Speaker 4: nicely for me.
Speaker 3: I think that the two spots, I think I'm just
Speaker 3: gonna go with the Ravens, like Ravens at Jets. It's
Speaker 3: not like I don't want to do that because I'd
Speaker 3: like to save the Ravens. I think I picked them
Speaker 3: to go to the super Bowl from the AC. I
Speaker 3: think it'll be a very good team, bounce back in
Speaker 3: a big way. Joe Flack, who may very well be
Speaker 3: an upgrade for Zach Wilson for this Week one game,
Speaker 3: which is kind of a problem and you get the
Speaker 3: revenge factor there. But the the other games that you
Speaker 3: have to look at Colts at Texans, that's a divisional
Speaker 3: road game in Week one of the team that had
Speaker 3: one in Week one since twenty thirteen. I can't go there.
Speaker 3: And forty nine Ers at Bears. You know the trade Lance. Fact, like,
Speaker 3: we know what we're getting with the Ravens, their team
Speaker 3: that dominates in week one. They've blown people out the
Speaker 3: last few years in Week one the forty nine ers,
Speaker 3: we think we know what we're getting, but there is
Speaker 3: a little uncertainty with Cherry Lance versus like the Lamar
Speaker 3: Jackson and that Ravens offense. There's so much consistency there.
Speaker 3: There's really no way they should lose to the Jets.
Speaker 3: But it's this is a really tricky week for survivor
Speaker 3: because there's just no there's it's a ton of road chalk,
Speaker 3: and you know you're just gonna have to hope you
Speaker 3: avoid that one big, you know, sort of shocking week one,
Speaker 3: you know, underdog victory.
Speaker 1: You know there's going to be chaos at the top,
Speaker 1: especially like you said, the amount of touchdown favorites on
Speaker 1: the road here is ridiculous.
Speaker 2: I'm a Jets fan.
Speaker 1: Joe Flacco is absolutely an upgrade over Zach Wilson. Jeez,
Speaker 1: I do not see I do not see the Jets
Speaker 1: pulling out a win here. I think I might have
Speaker 1: to go with that one as well. Matt, do you
Speaker 1: have a different differing opinion.
Speaker 5: Yeah, I'm I'm tempted by the Ravens, but a team
Speaker 5: that stands out to me and I'm scared about a
Speaker 5: little bit. The Bengals six and a half favorites over
Speaker 5: the Steelers, and so it's a divisional game, but this
Speaker 5: is the biggest spread that they have if you're looking
Speaker 5: at the look ahead market, this is the biggest spread
Speaker 5: that they have all year. So you know they're a
Speaker 5: good team if you're going to use him at some point.
Speaker 5: I feel like this is actually the game to use
Speaker 5: them and just kind of get them out of the
Speaker 5: way and save some of the other teams, the better
Speaker 5: teams for later in the year.
Speaker 4: Yeah.
Speaker 3: The one hang up I would have about the Bengals
Speaker 3: and is that we were talking about on the show
Speaker 3: and Prisco said that when he was in he was
Speaker 3: at Bengals camp and he saw Burrow and he said,
Speaker 3: Burrow looks like he looks frail. Like he looks frail
Speaker 3: because he's lost he lost so much of pinings. That's
Speaker 3: the only like concern is because remember last year when
Speaker 3: he come back in the ACL they were so slow,
Speaker 3: methodical about the offense early on, and so you just wonder,
Speaker 3: like if they don't unleash the passing game. Will It'll
Speaker 3: allow Pittsburgh to hang around, And that's that's just my
Speaker 3: only concern.
Speaker 4: I agree.
Speaker 3: I mean, the Bengals are the biggest home favorite in
Speaker 3: Week one, right, I mean, yeah, the Steelers have Mitchell Trubisky.
Speaker 3: It makes a lot of sense that the Borough thing.
Speaker 3: And there's just there's no easy pick here. That's just
Speaker 3: amount of line.
Speaker 1: Yeah, there is no easy pick. I think both of
Speaker 1: those games are reasonable. I love being able to pick
Speaker 1: a home team, especially in Survivor. I think if I
Speaker 1: had to present a third option, I'm going Eagles over
Speaker 1: Lions their four point road favorites. It's not my favorite's Again,
Speaker 1: there's not a lot that I love on this one.
Speaker 1: I just think that might be the spot where you
Speaker 1: use the Eagles here. I'd like to save them for later.
Speaker 1: The Lions might be better. But I'm trying to pick
Speaker 1: something here and make the best of a bad situation.
Speaker 4: I mean, I got the Eagles in the Super Bowl
Speaker 4: against Ravements.
Speaker 3: You won't hear me complain I played out of the Eagles,
Speaker 3: But I mean I think the line probably a little eever,
Speaker 3: and I'm trying to see if the Eagles have.
Speaker 4: They don't have a ton of great. They don't really have.
Speaker 3: Any good Maybe the Jaguars at home in a couple
Speaker 3: of weeks. I'd be in early October. But I mean like,
Speaker 3: you got to survive. Yeah, use them, so don't don't
Speaker 3: hate it.
Speaker 1: You got to pick something easy here. I like that
Speaker 1: you think birds are real. I'm on the Philadelphia Eagles.
Speaker 2: Bandwagon with you. I have them to win the one
Speaker 2: seed in the NFC.
Speaker 3: Did you know that there's never been an all bird
Speaker 3: mascot Super Bowl?
Speaker 2: I did not know that. I do know that there's
Speaker 2: a team this year that can run the bird gauntlet.
Speaker 3: Right, Well, I'm going Eagles Ravens is to be the
Speaker 3: That is my sole analysis of that Super Bowl pick is.
Speaker 4: All birds, all birds.
Speaker 3: They're real deep to dive into birds.
Speaker 1: Well, guys, that is going to do it for us.
Speaker 1: Here it is time for some football. Best of luck.
Speaker 2: This weekend to everyone. We hope you cash your tickets.
Speaker 1: Will where can people find you and all the great
Speaker 1: work you're doing around the internet at.
Speaker 3: Will Brinston on Twitter and Instagram And then the Pick
Speaker 3: six Podcast, a daily NFL podcast. We are on YouTube,
Speaker 3: YouTube dot com, slash pick six every Day live at
Speaker 3: one pm for the now until the rest of time.
Speaker 3: We also do live recap shows after the Sunday show,
Speaker 3: which is like two am Eastern. Come join us for
Speaker 3: that loopy session and then we'll be live after the
Speaker 3: Rams RAMS actually after every primetime game. Hover to what
Speaker 3: I'm saying, and also you can find it on like Spotify,
Speaker 3: sit your Apple, Google Play, wherever else you get your podcasts.
Speaker 1: Highly encourage you guys to go check it out. They
Speaker 1: do absolutely awesome work. One of my favorite things to do.
Speaker 1: You know, just go out, get on tack myself on
Speaker 1: a little date and just listen to a podcast, always
Speaker 1: picking up the Pick six podcast as that option. You
Speaker 1: guys do fantastic work over there. And if you like
Speaker 1: the work that we're doing here, don't forget like subscribe
Speaker 1: and share all that good stuff. Thank you guys so
Speaker 1: much for listening to us today. Follow me, find me
Speaker 1: on Twitter, at TV at work. You can find Matt
Speaker 1: of course at matt fb Oracle, and don't forget to
Speaker 1: follow at Betting Pros as well.
Speaker 2: And guys, we will see you next episode. Pas