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Speaker 1: Hello everyone, and welcome on into the Betting Pros Podcast.

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Speaker 1: I'm your host, Thomas Viola and as always for the

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Speaker 1: entirety of the football season. Joining me today none other

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Speaker 1: than the king of content, the high Septum of Soaps,

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Speaker 1: the podcast power listener, and long suffering Cowboys fan, the

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Speaker 1: oracle himself.

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Speaker 2: Matt Friedman.

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Speaker 1: And Matt, it is time for Week one of the

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Speaker 1: NFL season. We have games to talk about today, and

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Speaker 1: that means we have to bring on some of the

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Speaker 1: big guns here. So today we are joined by none

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Speaker 1: other than Will Brinson of the Pick six podcast, former

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Speaker 1: notary and guys. It is officially football time. Week one

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Speaker 1: is here. I know Matt's not excited, but Will, how

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Speaker 1: are you feeling?

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Speaker 3: I'm thrilled, you know. I love the Rams Bills Thursday

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Speaker 3: night game. I don't know if this is we're gonna

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Speaker 3: pick it like that opener is just like a choice opener.

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Speaker 3: You look at the schedule and there's like so much roadchalk,

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Speaker 3: it's crazy.

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Speaker 4: I think picking Survivor is gonna be impossible this week.

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Speaker 3: And the other thing, like about a week one where

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Speaker 3: there looks like there could be chaos is I love

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Speaker 3: how we're gonna get so many victory laps and like

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Speaker 3: and like and so many realizations that all these takes

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Speaker 3: that we've been spewing for like nine months in the

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Speaker 3: off season are just completely preposterous and dead ass wrong,

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Speaker 3: like when like you know when like the like I'm

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Speaker 3: like the Jaguars are just like if I think could

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Speaker 3: take on the Jaguars like they're gonna, I think I

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Speaker 3: picked them to win the division, They're just gonna like

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Speaker 3: lose by forty points, and I wouldn't feel like such

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Speaker 3: an idiot. But then you'll realize it a week for

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Speaker 3: now that none of that really matters exactly.

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Speaker 1: This is smartest man in the room season that we're

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Speaker 1: finally ending here with the season finally beginning, everybody's finally

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Speaker 1: done having their takes that has to be better than

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Speaker 1: everybody else's takes, and we can finally prove it all

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Speaker 1: watch some football and you nailed it on the Survivor pools.

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Speaker 1: I was fitting with with my roommates last night talking

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Speaker 1: about what are we gonna do for our survivor entries?

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Speaker 2: And oh man, it is a hard week.

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Speaker 1: So many seven point road favorites the first couple weeks

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Speaker 1: are gonna be tough for survivor. And obviously we don't

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Speaker 1: have a sample size to deal with here. It's going

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Speaker 1: to be interesting to see. But Matt will it's time

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Speaker 1: to get into some games here, start breaking down your

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Speaker 1: favorite spreads of the week. And Matt, I realize we

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Speaker 1: haven't even gotten you a word in edgewise here.

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Speaker 2: But are you excited?

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Speaker 5: Yeah, I actually am excited. I try not to be

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Speaker 5: excited about anything, but impossible not to be excited about

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Speaker 5: the first week of football. And I will say on

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Speaker 5: the week one front, it's that kind of thing where yes,

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Speaker 5: there will be a lot of victory laps, but then

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Speaker 5: there will also be the really distinct refusal to take

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Speaker 5: the l where it's like, look, it's only one week,

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Speaker 5: you know, and it's like, okay, yeah, it's only one week,

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Speaker 5: but it's always really bad.

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Speaker 3: It would be like ninety percent of the carries for

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Speaker 3: one guy, ten percent for the other guy that you

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Speaker 3: said like basically like me.

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Speaker 4: Even Trace Sermon last year, it was like.

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Speaker 3: No, it's too early to tell if Trey Sermon is

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Speaker 3: gonna be good or bad.

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Speaker 4: It's like the week nine, Week nine, I'm screaming, like

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Speaker 4: I hate it.

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Speaker 3: Ever, No, this guy could come in and I'm gonna

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Speaker 3: sure you've got to carry last.

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Speaker 1: I had an all time Fantasy draft last year where

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Speaker 1: I took Trey Sermon, Mike Davis, and Brandon Ayuk.

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Speaker 2: Just fantastic year for me.

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Speaker 3: That's a tough one, but I actually have fifteen to

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Speaker 3: one in a league. The only mofo who got me

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Speaker 3: was prisco Pete. Priscoe got me with his crappy team

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Speaker 3: like they actually had some basically prevented me from having

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Speaker 3: a perfect season, which is really disturbing.

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Speaker 2: Anyway, Hey Giants do yes, exactly.

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Speaker 1: Well, we're going to talk about the Giants game and more,

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Speaker 1: but first let's talk about the biggest game of the weekend.

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Speaker 1: It's the one that we all are waiting to sit

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Speaker 1: down and watch, the Baker Mayfield revenge game the Browns

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Speaker 1: at the Panthers.

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Speaker 2: You're laying a point with the Panthers.

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Speaker 1: Will Are you all aboard the Baker Mayfield bandwagon?

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Speaker 4: Here?

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Speaker 1: Is he going to get it back together? Or are

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Speaker 1: you going with the Cleveland Jacoby Brissettes.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, a tough spot for me. Is an NC State fan,

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Speaker 4: Jacoby Brissett.

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Speaker 3: You know the homecoming game here, love love Jacoby did

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Speaker 3: a lot of good stuff here in Raleigh. I mean,

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Speaker 3: I guess he's playing at Charlotte, which is like might

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Speaker 3: as well be Virginia.

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Speaker 4: To be perfectly honest, I am like have annoyed it

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Speaker 4: myself as we get, you know, to the start of

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Speaker 4: the full first full Sunday of the NFL high like

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Speaker 4: over the past month plus, have allowed myself and done

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Speaker 4: it to myself to like get on board. But I'm like,

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Speaker 4: maybe the Panthers.

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Speaker 3: Mans our fringe playoff contender.

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Speaker 4: And I'm like, what are you doing? Like I know

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Speaker 4: what I'm doing.

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Speaker 3: It's so stupid and I'm mad at myself. But it's

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Speaker 3: like the Tobias few k Meme. He's like, he's like,

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Speaker 3: does it ever work for them?

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Speaker 2: No?

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Speaker 4: But it might work for me at the Panthers.

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Speaker 3: I do think the Baker and the Panthers are gonna

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Speaker 3: are gonna take care of business against the Browns.

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Speaker 4: I mean, I can't.

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Speaker 3: I always think back to that game where after Hugh

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Speaker 3: je Action got fired by the Browns and then was

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Speaker 3: put and played for then started coaching for the Bengals,

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Speaker 3: excuse me and Baker Baker like they ran the score

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Speaker 3: up of the Bengals It is the best games Baker's

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Speaker 3: ever played. He's walking by Hugh on the sidebark like

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Speaker 3: run in his mouth. The cameras catch it, and I

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Speaker 3: think you're gonna see some of that narrative back against

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Speaker 3: the Browns here, who are you know, wounded right like

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Speaker 3: they had Deshaun Watson and now he's obviously can't play.

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Speaker 3: That's why they moved on from Baker. This is the

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Speaker 3: this Panthers team. There are a couple of different ways

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Speaker 3: that the season can fail, and they're not difficult to

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Speaker 3: like imagine, like Christian McCaffrey gets hurt. This is a

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Speaker 3: bunch of games the offensive line isn't very good, or

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Speaker 3: those guys get hurt, like one guy get hurts on

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Speaker 3: that offensive line. It could really be a Jingo type piece.

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Speaker 3: You know, a couple of guys on the defense don't

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Speaker 3: take a huge leap. But for Week one, I think

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Speaker 3: all those things are pretty safe to worry about. He said,

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Speaker 3: knowing that Joseph Person just tweeted that Christian McCaffrey was

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Speaker 3: on the injury report with a shit injury, which is

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Speaker 3: not ideal for purposes of this Panthers pick. However, he's

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Speaker 3: a full participant. They're gonna you saw what they did

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Speaker 3: in the first three games last year. You get Christian

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Speaker 3: McCaffrey involved in that offense, it's gonna make Baker look good.

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Speaker 3: I think Ikey Iguana will have a very nice first game.

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Speaker 3: I worry a little bit about his pass pro over

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Speaker 3: the full season. And then like the upgrades they made

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Speaker 3: Bradley Boseman at center Panthers team, I think can flash

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Speaker 3: it off and they have started hot in him at

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Speaker 3: rule at home. I like him to take care of

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Speaker 3: the Browns in the spot.

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Speaker 1: My thing with the My thing with Baker was always

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Speaker 1: that all the things that people knocked in for with

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Speaker 1: his personality and all that.

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Speaker 2: It was always stuff on the field for being a competitor.

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Speaker 1: Yes, he got supplexed by that campus police officer at Oklahoma,

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Speaker 1: but he kind of cleaned himself up after that and

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Speaker 1: everything else was on the field, and I want that

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Speaker 1: in my quarterback. And you know, he has had these

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Speaker 1: games circled forever. This is absolutely going to be that

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Speaker 1: game that he wants to go off in. But Matt,

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Speaker 1: you're disagreeing with us here.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, So the way we're doing this is that Will

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Speaker 5: is taking five spread bets that he likes. I'm taking

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Speaker 5: five spread bets that I like. We didn't consult with

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Speaker 5: each other beforehand, and it just so happens we're going

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Speaker 5: head to head on this one. And when I first

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Speaker 5: wrote up this game, it was Brown's plus two and

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Speaker 5: a half, and I said that, I think my projection

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Speaker 5: of this is Brown's minus half a point. When I

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Speaker 5: put it in, the outline is Brown one and a half.

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Speaker 5: As we're recording this right now, the consensus line is

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Speaker 5: now a pick them. It is actually a pick them

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Speaker 5: at DraftKings.

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Speaker 3: Uh.

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Speaker 5: It is point five towards the Browns at points bet,

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Speaker 5: one point going towards Carolina at bet MGM. So like this.

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Speaker 5: You know, we are now in the in the pick

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Speaker 5: them range, and I think we might continue still to

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Speaker 5: see this line move towards move towards the Browns as

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Speaker 5: we get into the weekend. I am very much on

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Speaker 5: the Browns here, you know, at pick em plus one

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Speaker 5: and a half wherever it is that you find it.

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Speaker 5: I think they should be favored in this game.

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Speaker 4: Uh.

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Speaker 5: And you know, I think it's a situation where Baker Mayfield,

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Speaker 5: you know, Robbie Anderson, he has a hamstring injury. Uh,

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Speaker 5: so his status is a little bit unknown tight end.

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Speaker 5: And Thomas he has a rib injury. He's week to week.

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Speaker 5: So Baker Mayfield, I don't think he has great weapons

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Speaker 5: at the wide receiver position after DJ Moore, and as

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Speaker 5: bad as those weapons are, he might not even have

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Speaker 5: his full arsenal of weapons going into this game. And

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Speaker 5: so I think that's a hindrance. If you look at

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Speaker 5: the Cleveland Browns, you know, I think there are some

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Speaker 5: trends here that work in their favor non postseason teams.

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Speaker 5: So you know, that's very much like the kind of

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Speaker 5: team that I think the public would maybe be like

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Speaker 5: because of recency bias, prone to bet against early in

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Speaker 5: the next season. So you know, a non postseason team

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Speaker 5: that's a road underdog in Week one, they're seventy three,

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Speaker 5: forty six and four against the spread for nineteen percent ROI.

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Speaker 5: And then so that's the Browns. And you look at

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Speaker 5: the Panthers. Man head coach Matt Rule has been really

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Speaker 5: bad against the spread in situations where he should have

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Speaker 5: an edge. So as a favorite, he's three and eight

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Speaker 5: against the spread. At home, he's four and twelve against

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Speaker 5: the spread. And he put that together with him as

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Speaker 5: a home favorite in the spot he is one in

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Speaker 5: six against the spread and on the money line as

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Speaker 5: a home favorite. This guy just just does not get

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Speaker 5: it done. And this matchup I really like in terms

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Speaker 5: of the Browns secondary versus Baker Mayfield in the pass catchers. Like, yes,

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Speaker 5: it is the revenge game for Baker Mayfield, it is

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Speaker 5: also the revenge game for the entirety of the Browns organization,

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Speaker 5: right and for like the defense that had to like

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Speaker 5: look at the offense and say, like, we could maybe

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Speaker 5: get stuff done, we could maybe make the playoffs if

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Speaker 5: not for that guy right there. Now they get to

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Speaker 5: go up against him. And I think this is a

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Speaker 5: very good brown secondary. I have them ranked number three

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Speaker 5: overall and they are going against a Panthers pass catching

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Speaker 5: group that after DJ Moore is really unproven and really

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Speaker 5: thin and number one cornerback Denzel Ward, but I think

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Speaker 5: he's one of the best cornerbacks in the league. He's

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Speaker 5: been paid like one of the best cornerbacks in the league.

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Speaker 5: And he you know, he is going to shadow DJ

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Speaker 5: Moore on the perimeter, Like I think that is a

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Speaker 5: near certainty. And that's not to say he's going to

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Speaker 5: lock him down. But I think it will be hard

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Speaker 5: for DJ Moore to have a big enough of a

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Speaker 5: game against Denzel Ward to compensate for the lack of

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Speaker 5: production they get from all all of the other pass

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Speaker 5: catchers who aren't Christian McCaffrey. And if you're going to

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Speaker 5: run like the bulk of your passing game through the

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Speaker 5: running back, you're probably going to lose. So I am

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Speaker 5: very much on the Browns here. Again, whatever number it

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Speaker 5: is like at pick them, I haven't projected at you know,

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Speaker 5: minus point five, So I don't think there's value if

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Speaker 5: you're betting them there. But I think there is probably

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Speaker 5: enough value if you're betting them at a pick them

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Speaker 5: and still you can get them at plus money or

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Speaker 5: your plus odds at at some sites out there, So

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Speaker 5: be sure to shop around on this one.

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Speaker 3: By the way, I love that, like, hey, we've got

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Speaker 3: a smart NFL guy. It's like, yes, I'm going to

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Speaker 3: back Matt Rule. It's like maybe maybe I have an idiot.

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Speaker 4: Maybe I have an idiot, you know, like that's Matt

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Speaker 4: role is pretty terrible.

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Speaker 1: I remember what I really wanted the Jets to hire

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Speaker 1: Matt Rule, and I was so upset the Panthers got

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Speaker 1: him instead.

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Speaker 4: Things.

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Speaker 2: I'm not gonna say they've worked out for us.

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Speaker 3: He's worked out for the Jets, but I mean, yes,

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Speaker 3: it's worked out and not like that.

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Speaker 4: You're better off not having Matt rule even if it

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Speaker 4: hasn't worked out.

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Speaker 1: Guys, real quick, I want to talk to you about Sleeper.

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Speaker 1: My friends and I changed over this year and I.

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Speaker 2: Absolutely love it.

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Speaker 1: in group chat where I can see and copy my

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Speaker 1: group's picks with the tap of a button. Along with

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Speaker 1: one hundred dollars to get you started. In terms of

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Speaker 1: conditions apply see Sleeper dot comforty tens. This next game, though,

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Speaker 1: involves a new coaching higher and one that has been

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Speaker 1: around the block for a little bit of time. One

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Speaker 1: could say the Patriots are going down to Miami to

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Speaker 1: play the Dolphins here in a coaching matchup rivaled in

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Speaker 1: disparity by only Don Shula and Rich Brooks, who had

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Speaker 1: a win differential of three hundred and twenty wins when

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Speaker 1: they matched up in nineteen ninety five. Belichick, of course,

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Speaker 1: has a casual two hundred and ninety and Mike McDaniel,

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Speaker 1: the new Dolphins coach zero.

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Speaker 2: And as much as I hate to say it.

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Speaker 1: I'm afraid that I'm betting on the rookie coach in

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Speaker 1: this one. Three and a half point favorites at home

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Speaker 1: are the Dolphins. Here, that hook scares me a little bit.

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Speaker 2: But I'm looking at the fact that Bill Belichick struggles

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Speaker 2: in Miami, but he struggle the Miami against Brian Flores.

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Speaker 2: But this team is also loaded.

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Speaker 1: I'm stuck between two minds.

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Speaker 2: Here will provide some clarity for me.

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Speaker 4: Well, I mean, I'm I'm petrified a better in this game.

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Speaker 3: Because I think objectively speaking, like say, if you took

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Speaker 3: the if you dook the if you do the Patriots

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Speaker 3: and you get rid of Belichick and you put them

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Speaker 3: in like slime green Seahawks jerseys, I mean they're they're

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Speaker 3: they're over under wind. Total is like five and a half. Yeah, right,

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Speaker 3: Like this this roster is just not it's not it's

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Speaker 3: not great. And I think, you know, I think it's mattsive.

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Speaker 3: Matt's got the pick on this one. But I would

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Speaker 3: just say, like the to a non factor. It terrifies

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Speaker 3: me because I referenced that Tua has like that, I

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Speaker 3: said the Patriots could win the game. The CBS has

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Speaker 3: me to do five upset games, right, and I listed

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Speaker 3: five games and I was like, the Patriots, patris who

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Speaker 3: win against Belichick Week one, your rookie head coach, you know,

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Speaker 3: to a you know, a young quarterback struggle against Belichick,

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Speaker 3: and and they got Maggs two.

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Speaker 4: Is three and zer against Belichick.

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Speaker 3: But he's for like four hundred passing yards. And then

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Speaker 3: and then basically, Dolphins fans came at me, and I

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Speaker 3: sort of said that the Dolphins beat writers are homers too,

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Speaker 3: and like they were like way too enthusiastic with their reporting,

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Speaker 3: and so like everyone came after me for forty eight

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Speaker 3: hours NonStop. My mentions were like Dolphin fans screaming at me.

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Speaker 3: So I'm like petrified that two is great in this game,

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Speaker 3: the Dolphins role, and then I have to relive that.

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Speaker 4: Nightmare of two and on.

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Speaker 3: So Friedman taught me, taught me into the Patriots saving

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Speaker 3: my Sunday.

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Speaker 4: Please.

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Speaker 5: Well, you know, now I almost hope it happens. That

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Speaker 5: would be that'd be great, good entertainment value. Everyone except

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Speaker 5: for you would enjoy it. But now I have to

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Speaker 5: go with the that proven head coach in this situation.

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Speaker 5: And part of it is that cornerback Byron Jones for

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Speaker 5: the Dolphins. He's out on pp with an ankle injury,

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Speaker 5: and you know, the Patriots by and large, you know,

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Speaker 5: they're relatively healthy entering this game. You know, head coach

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Speaker 5: Bill Belichick thirty fifteen and two against this bread as

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Speaker 5: an underdog. I mean, you know, that's that's a pretty

339
00:14:58,200 --> 00:15:02,040
Speaker 5: good record. And the division road underdogs in the first

340
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Speaker 5: half of the year two hundred and eighty four to

341
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Speaker 5: to eleven with seventeen pushes against the spread. So, you know,

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Speaker 5: divisional road underdogs, especially in the first half of the year,

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Speaker 5: when I think there are more things that are unknown,

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Speaker 5: I think it's it's you know, been a profitable thing

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Speaker 5: to go with. And I'm just looking at this game.

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Speaker 5: The Patriots run offense against the Dolphins run defense. I

347
00:15:25,240 --> 00:15:28,240
Speaker 5: think that's really where this game is decided. And you know,

348
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Speaker 5: with Damien Harris and Ramandre Stefenson, the Patriots have I

349
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Speaker 5: think one of the like the better I wouldn't say

350
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Speaker 5: like it's like top three, but like top eight running

351
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Speaker 5: back duos in the league. And the opposing defensive line

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Speaker 5: for for the Dolphins it's not bad, but it's not

353
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Speaker 5: good in run defense. And I think that is a

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Speaker 5: real edge that the Patriots are going to have in

355
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Speaker 5: this game, especially like if you're just looking at statistics

356
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Speaker 5: from last year, the Patriots, you know, routinely top eight

357
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Speaker 5: in different rushing metrics, the Dolphins middle of the league two,

358
00:16:04,560 --> 00:16:08,400
Speaker 5: bottom quarter of the league in defensive rush metrics, and

359
00:16:08,600 --> 00:16:12,040
Speaker 5: without Brian Flores there. Tommy you mentioned it like Flores

360
00:16:12,320 --> 00:16:15,600
Speaker 5: was the defensive brain on that team, and because he

361
00:16:15,760 --> 00:16:18,160
Speaker 5: was coming from the Belichick coaching tree, I think he

362
00:16:18,240 --> 00:16:21,400
Speaker 5: really did give them a head to head edge against

363
00:16:21,400 --> 00:16:24,960
Speaker 5: the Patriots and that is gone, so that defense really

364
00:16:24,960 --> 00:16:27,280
Speaker 5: could take a step back. And I know there have

365
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Speaker 5: been reports about the Patriots, who were a power rushing,

366
00:16:31,120 --> 00:16:35,240
Speaker 5: gap heavy team for years, about them struggling to incorporate

367
00:16:35,320 --> 00:16:40,160
Speaker 5: zone blocking schemes into their offense. To me, like, obviously,

368
00:16:40,360 --> 00:16:43,600
Speaker 5: if they're incorporating zone blocking schemes, you would rather have

369
00:16:43,640 --> 00:16:46,280
Speaker 5: that going well than not. I don't think. I don't

370
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Speaker 5: think that means that they are totally abandoning the power run.

371
00:16:50,000 --> 00:16:51,520
Speaker 5: I think it just means that they're going to get

372
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Speaker 5: more varied, more inventive with what they're doing in the

373
00:16:54,600 --> 00:16:57,480
Speaker 5: running game, so that there's more of a mix. And

374
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Speaker 5: the Patriots, Yeah, they just said right guard Shack Mason

375
00:17:02,000 --> 00:17:05,120
Speaker 5: via trade. They lost left guard Ted Carrisson free agency,

376
00:17:05,240 --> 00:17:08,280
Speaker 5: but otherwise they have good continuity along the offensive line.

377
00:17:08,320 --> 00:17:12,200
Speaker 5: They have four starters, all of whom have started multiple

378
00:17:12,320 --> 00:17:15,960
Speaker 5: years with the Patriots on the offensive line. And then

379
00:17:16,000 --> 00:17:18,800
Speaker 5: they added in the first round left guard Cole Strange, who, yeah,

380
00:17:18,800 --> 00:17:21,520
Speaker 5: they overdrafted him, but like that dude was one of

381
00:17:21,600 --> 00:17:27,000
Speaker 5: the most dominant interior run blocking offensive linemen in the draft.

382
00:17:27,280 --> 00:17:30,439
Speaker 5: So I think they're just going to just ram it

383
00:17:30,720 --> 00:17:35,000
Speaker 5: against the Dolphins for the entirety of the game. Keep

384
00:17:35,040 --> 00:17:38,720
Speaker 5: that offense of the Dolphins on the sideline for as

385
00:17:38,720 --> 00:17:42,280
Speaker 5: long as possible, and nose tackled. Raekwon Davis last year

386
00:17:42,320 --> 00:17:46,040
Speaker 5: had a thirty six point one run defense grade and

387
00:17:46,160 --> 00:17:48,960
Speaker 5: a twenty nine point one tackling grade. Like that is

388
00:17:49,000 --> 00:17:51,439
Speaker 5: the point of attack, like right up the middle of

389
00:17:51,480 --> 00:17:54,480
Speaker 5: their defense. The Dolphins are weak against the run. So

390
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Speaker 5: I think that this is going to be a game

391
00:17:57,359 --> 00:18:00,320
Speaker 5: that is closer than the three and a half. If

392
00:18:00,320 --> 00:18:02,760
Speaker 5: it were three, I would probably still be betting it.

393
00:18:03,119 --> 00:18:05,480
Speaker 5: At two and a half, I don't believe I would

394
00:18:05,480 --> 00:18:07,320
Speaker 5: touch it, although, like I do think that these two

395
00:18:07,359 --> 00:18:09,879
Speaker 5: teams are pretty closely matched, and I don't think the

396
00:18:09,920 --> 00:18:13,400
Speaker 5: home field advantage at Miami is really all that large.

397
00:18:13,560 --> 00:18:15,719
Speaker 5: So I am on the Patriots in this spot at

398
00:18:15,720 --> 00:18:16,359
Speaker 5: three and a half.

399
00:18:16,960 --> 00:18:18,800
Speaker 4: See you make me feel better with that too.

400
00:18:18,840 --> 00:18:22,480
Speaker 3: And I like the idea that the zone blocking power thing.

401
00:18:22,760 --> 00:18:24,639
Speaker 3: Like if Belichick doesn't think the zone blocking is going

402
00:18:24,680 --> 00:18:26,280
Speaker 3: to work in Week one, he's not gonna go full

403
00:18:26,440 --> 00:18:28,920
Speaker 3: zone blocking against Miami, He's just gonna run the He's

404
00:18:28,960 --> 00:18:29,560
Speaker 3: gonna run.

405
00:18:29,400 --> 00:18:31,680
Speaker 4: The power formation. Though. I mean, I cannot get over

406
00:18:31,720 --> 00:18:32,320
Speaker 4: the fact though that.

407
00:18:32,240 --> 00:18:34,520
Speaker 3: He has Matt Patricia Jo Jones running his offense Like

408
00:18:34,920 --> 00:18:37,320
Speaker 3: that is like the weirdest thing on the planet.

409
00:18:37,480 --> 00:18:40,240
Speaker 5: Yes, yes, but he is still he is still the

410
00:18:40,240 --> 00:18:43,680
Speaker 5: one running that offense. Yeah, Like as weird as this sounds,

411
00:18:43,960 --> 00:18:46,159
Speaker 5: Belichick back in the day with the Browns, maybe I

412
00:18:46,200 --> 00:18:48,879
Speaker 5: shouldn't say this because it probably doesn't mean like anything

413
00:18:48,920 --> 00:18:52,600
Speaker 5: good happened. But he obviously was like a defensive mastermind

414
00:18:52,840 --> 00:18:55,880
Speaker 5: with the Giants. When he came to the Browns, he

415
00:18:56,040 --> 00:18:58,440
Speaker 5: was calling the plays on offense. They did not have it,

416
00:18:58,880 --> 00:19:01,040
Speaker 5: They did not have an offen defensive coordinator for the

417
00:19:01,080 --> 00:19:03,320
Speaker 5: first couple of years that he was there, Like he

418
00:19:03,480 --> 00:19:06,399
Speaker 5: was the one overseeing the offense. There were other guys

419
00:19:06,400 --> 00:19:09,320
Speaker 5: who were there, like you know, in in the meetings,

420
00:19:09,720 --> 00:19:12,679
Speaker 5: position groups running it. But like Belichick really was the

421
00:19:12,720 --> 00:19:15,840
Speaker 5: one who was overseeing the offense, and I think it's

422
00:19:15,840 --> 00:19:17,520
Speaker 5: going to be a similar situation now.

423
00:19:18,480 --> 00:19:20,359
Speaker 3: He also had save it as his defensive coordinator, so

424
00:19:20,400 --> 00:19:22,240
Speaker 3: he felt good about No. I mean, like you know,

425
00:19:23,200 --> 00:19:25,480
Speaker 3: and I mean he trusted Romeo and his son, So

426
00:19:25,520 --> 00:19:27,119
Speaker 3: I mean maybe he you know, maybe he thinks they

427
00:19:27,119 --> 00:19:29,600
Speaker 3: can handle the defense and he'll run the I'd be like, hey,

428
00:19:29,600 --> 00:19:31,359
Speaker 3: we're running this and Patricia's just like reading off a

429
00:19:31,359 --> 00:19:34,080
Speaker 3: play sheet. That's like and Joe Judges like, like, you know,

430
00:19:34,080 --> 00:19:36,960
Speaker 3: sitting there with his thumbs there, he's there, Yeah, exactly.

431
00:19:36,960 --> 00:19:39,399
Speaker 3: So maybe maybe said that's I hadn't thought through that

432
00:19:39,440 --> 00:19:40,520
Speaker 3: process that I like that.

433
00:19:41,920 --> 00:19:44,560
Speaker 1: I'm still just worried about the fact that I can't

434
00:19:44,560 --> 00:19:47,800
Speaker 1: believe the Dolphins swept the Patriots last year and I

435
00:19:47,840 --> 00:19:49,960
Speaker 1: know Flores has gone, and a lot of it was

436
00:19:50,000 --> 00:19:52,040
Speaker 1: the fact that he was the he was the guy

437
00:19:52,080 --> 00:19:54,800
Speaker 1: who changed the system for them and was able to

438
00:19:54,800 --> 00:19:58,600
Speaker 1: buck the trends of Belichick beating his disciples, of Belichick

439
00:19:58,720 --> 00:20:01,760
Speaker 1: just dominating the division. But at the same time, I

440
00:20:01,800 --> 00:20:02,800
Speaker 1: just feel like at the end of the day, this

441
00:20:02,840 --> 00:20:05,600
Speaker 1: Miami team is so much more talented them. I don't

442
00:20:05,600 --> 00:20:07,719
Speaker 1: think it's as even a matchup, especially when you look

443
00:20:07,760 --> 00:20:10,560
Speaker 1: at it on the offensive side there. But it's Week

444
00:20:10,600 --> 00:20:12,960
Speaker 1: one and nobody knows anything, and I'm probably the one

445
00:20:12,960 --> 00:20:16,119
Speaker 1: wrong here, so I will happily defer on that. If

446
00:20:16,160 --> 00:20:19,320
Speaker 1: you want to win a sign Joe Mixon Cincinnati Bengals

447
00:20:19,359 --> 00:20:22,400
Speaker 1: jersey courtesy of our friends at Christine Auction, you need

448
00:20:22,440 --> 00:20:25,600
Speaker 1: to subscribe to the Betting Pros YouTube channel right now,

449
00:20:26,000 --> 00:20:28,280
Speaker 1: comment below this video, and that is it.

450
00:20:28,400 --> 00:20:30,080
Speaker 2: You will automatically be entered.

451
00:20:30,119 --> 00:20:32,719
Speaker 1: We will be announcing a winner right here on the channel,

452
00:20:33,000 --> 00:20:35,639
Speaker 1: so make sure to turn on those notifications so you

453
00:20:35,720 --> 00:20:38,240
Speaker 1: can be alerted when new episodes are up and to

454
00:20:38,320 --> 00:20:42,960
Speaker 1: claim your prize. Talk about two Super Bowl contenders going

455
00:20:43,080 --> 00:20:45,640
Speaker 1: at it here, guys, we'll probably be seeing this matchup

456
00:20:45,640 --> 00:20:49,639
Speaker 1: in February. We've got the Jacksonville Jaguars facing off against

457
00:20:49,640 --> 00:20:54,119
Speaker 1: the Washington Commies. Bet MGM has the Commanders at minus

458
00:20:54,119 --> 00:20:57,679
Speaker 1: two and a half at home in this game, Carson

459
00:20:57,720 --> 00:21:01,080
Speaker 1: Wentz versus Trevor Lawrence, the Battle of the Jay. Who's

460
00:21:01,080 --> 00:21:01,960
Speaker 1: coming out on top?

461
00:21:03,400 --> 00:21:05,719
Speaker 3: I mean, I've got that I've been saying for like

462
00:21:05,760 --> 00:21:08,040
Speaker 3: three months of the Jaguars, We're just gonna win this game,

463
00:21:08,119 --> 00:21:08,400
Speaker 3: Like I.

464
00:21:08,320 --> 00:21:09,280
Speaker 4: Think the Jaguars.

465
00:21:09,440 --> 00:21:12,400
Speaker 3: For one, the NFL schedule maker did not do Carson

466
00:21:12,440 --> 00:21:14,560
Speaker 3: Wentz any favors because the last time he played a

467
00:21:14,560 --> 00:21:17,800
Speaker 3: football game in the NFL was the horrible Week eighteen

468
00:21:17,880 --> 00:21:20,720
Speaker 3: loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars that caused the Colts to

469
00:21:20,720 --> 00:21:23,640
Speaker 3: miss the playoffs of major mercy, go insane and force

470
00:21:23,960 --> 00:21:27,399
Speaker 3: a trade of Carson Wentz out of town. And so now,

471
00:21:27,680 --> 00:21:30,480
Speaker 3: of course the NFL since Jacksonville to Washington, like, hey,

472
00:21:30,520 --> 00:21:32,720
Speaker 3: do you enjoy that PTSD from from Jacksonville.

473
00:21:32,760 --> 00:21:35,720
Speaker 4: Well, we're sending some some teal your way, Carson. And

474
00:21:35,760 --> 00:21:36,840
Speaker 4: not only that, the.

475
00:21:36,880 --> 00:21:40,159
Speaker 3: Jaguars have hired Carson Wentz's old coach, Doug Peterson, like

476
00:21:40,920 --> 00:21:44,800
Speaker 3: Irban Meyer, was unquestionably the worst higher in the history

477
00:21:44,800 --> 00:21:49,520
Speaker 3: of professional football, like abject failure and disaster. Petere Priscow

478
00:21:49,560 --> 00:21:53,080
Speaker 3: told me on on the on our Our Friday pot

479
00:21:53,119 --> 00:21:55,080
Speaker 3: the Pick six podcast. He was talking about because he

480
00:21:55,160 --> 00:21:57,160
Speaker 3: lived in Jacksonville. He does that the you know, does

481
00:21:57,359 --> 00:21:59,360
Speaker 3: the weekly radio show. He knows that the organization really

482
00:21:59,640 --> 00:22:02,040
Speaker 3: is like the stories, He's like the stories I'm hearing now,

483
00:22:02,520 --> 00:22:04,440
Speaker 3: like about Urban and like it gets worse and worse,

484
00:22:04,480 --> 00:22:05,880
Speaker 3: like the stuff hadn't even told publicly.

485
00:22:05,880 --> 00:22:09,040
Speaker 4: It's just like he's just treating, you know, just a disaster.

486
00:22:09,520 --> 00:22:12,840
Speaker 5: Would we say, would we say that they were urban legends? Yeah,

487
00:22:12,920 --> 00:22:14,880
Speaker 5: but I just had to drop it in. Sorry, sorry

488
00:22:14,920 --> 00:22:17,400
Speaker 5: to interrupt for that horrible, horrible joke.

489
00:22:17,520 --> 00:22:20,040
Speaker 4: I heard all puns, all puns I'm here for.

490
00:22:21,560 --> 00:22:24,520
Speaker 3: And like, Doug Pearson doesn't even have to be like

491
00:22:25,560 --> 00:22:27,400
Speaker 3: Bill Belichick in two thousand and five.

492
00:22:27,600 --> 00:22:29,320
Speaker 4: He like he just has to be not.

493
00:22:29,400 --> 00:22:32,080
Speaker 3: Urban Meyer, and and immediately this team is gonna be

494
00:22:32,080 --> 00:22:35,080
Speaker 3: so much better. I think he'll come and prepared. I'm

495
00:22:35,119 --> 00:22:37,280
Speaker 3: not sold on. I think Washington maybe a little bit

496
00:22:37,280 --> 00:22:38,719
Speaker 3: better than I'm giving him credit for. But I think

497
00:22:38,800 --> 00:22:40,560
Speaker 3: Jackson was a lot better than people are giving him

498
00:22:40,560 --> 00:22:42,240
Speaker 3: credit for. I think the jag Wars just win this

499
00:22:42,280 --> 00:22:45,040
Speaker 3: game and we're like, oh right, Trevor Lawrence is awesome.

500
00:22:45,119 --> 00:22:46,840
Speaker 3: It was just Urban Meyer who screwed him up.

501
00:22:48,800 --> 00:22:51,399
Speaker 1: I mean, I have a hard time poking holes in

502
00:22:51,400 --> 00:22:53,479
Speaker 1: the Trevor Lawrence is good at football argument?

503
00:22:53,520 --> 00:22:54,360
Speaker 2: But what do you think, Matt?

504
00:22:54,640 --> 00:22:54,840
Speaker 5: Yeah?

505
00:22:54,880 --> 00:22:55,360
Speaker 4: I like it.

506
00:22:56,359 --> 00:22:59,159
Speaker 5: I mean when this line opened months ago, it was

507
00:22:59,240 --> 00:23:01,679
Speaker 5: Jaggs plus four and a half and it was an

508
00:23:01,720 --> 00:23:05,639
Speaker 5: auto bet. Then it was just like, Okay, there's no way,

509
00:23:05,920 --> 00:23:08,760
Speaker 5: no way that Washington should be favorite. And the fact

510
00:23:08,800 --> 00:23:12,040
Speaker 5: that this moved through the key number of three down

511
00:23:12,080 --> 00:23:15,439
Speaker 5: to two and a half is a real sign of

512
00:23:15,480 --> 00:23:19,720
Speaker 5: either the market being bullish on the Jags or really

513
00:23:19,760 --> 00:23:23,399
Speaker 5: against Carson Wentz and the Washington Commanders. And honestly it's

514
00:23:23,480 --> 00:23:24,880
Speaker 5: it's maybe a combination of both.

515
00:23:27,480 --> 00:23:27,840
Speaker 2: Exactly.

516
00:23:27,880 --> 00:23:30,240
Speaker 1: I don't I don't want to be betting on Washington.

517
00:23:30,280 --> 00:23:32,639
Speaker 1: I don't necessarily wanted to be betting on Jacksonville. But

518
00:23:33,400 --> 00:23:35,920
Speaker 1: I'd rather bet on Doug Peterson than Ron Rivera, and

519
00:23:35,960 --> 00:23:39,359
Speaker 1: I'd rather bet on Trevor Lawrence than Carson Wentz's That's

520
00:23:39,400 --> 00:23:40,680
Speaker 1: where I have to go in this one.

521
00:23:40,920 --> 00:23:41,160
Speaker 4: Yeah.

522
00:23:41,200 --> 00:23:45,480
Speaker 1: Absolutely, the next game up here, guys, the Colts and

523
00:23:45,520 --> 00:23:48,679
Speaker 1: the Texans. We've got some division rivalry going on in

524
00:23:48,720 --> 00:23:53,960
Speaker 1: Week one. The Texans seven point home dogs. In this spot,

525
00:23:55,080 --> 00:23:56,760
Speaker 1: I kind of like, lovey, what do you think?

526
00:23:56,800 --> 00:23:57,919
Speaker 2: Will?

527
00:23:58,520 --> 00:24:01,040
Speaker 3: I think this is a freedom in a game too, right,

528
00:24:01,080 --> 00:24:03,640
Speaker 3: because I'm I'm scared. Do you know the Colts haven't

529
00:24:03,640 --> 00:24:06,159
Speaker 3: won a Week one openers twenty thirteen.

530
00:24:06,359 --> 00:24:08,840
Speaker 4: Yeah, like that is crazy. How how can you go?

531
00:24:09,160 --> 00:24:11,720
Speaker 3: Was a decade with no wins in week one of

532
00:24:11,880 --> 00:24:16,159
Speaker 3: like multiple coaches but like multa like several good like

533
00:24:16,400 --> 00:24:18,760
Speaker 3: Andrew Luck, Philip River. I mean just yeah, just good.

534
00:24:19,200 --> 00:24:22,800
Speaker 3: It's wild to me. So I'm like, maybe lean Texans,

535
00:24:22,800 --> 00:24:23,639
Speaker 3: but I'm kind of scared.

536
00:24:24,520 --> 00:24:27,399
Speaker 5: Yeah, I'm I'm there. I'm on the Texans. I first

537
00:24:27,400 --> 00:24:30,160
Speaker 5: grabbed this at eight and a half, it's now at seven.

538
00:24:30,240 --> 00:24:32,480
Speaker 5: I don't think I would bet it past the seven.

539
00:24:32,800 --> 00:24:35,240
Speaker 5: I mean, I mean, for I definitely wouldn't bet bet

540
00:24:35,240 --> 00:24:37,960
Speaker 5: it past the seven. But I still like it at seven. Uh,

541
00:24:38,119 --> 00:24:41,840
Speaker 5: you know, the Colts linebacker should kill Leonard. He has

542
00:24:41,920 --> 00:24:44,280
Speaker 5: returned to practice. He probably is going to play pretty

543
00:24:44,320 --> 00:24:44,840
Speaker 5: nice by you.

544
00:24:44,920 --> 00:24:46,440
Speaker 3: By the way, I'm not gonna get I'm not gonna

545
00:24:46,440 --> 00:24:47,840
Speaker 3: get off Darius until like week five.

546
00:24:48,160 --> 00:24:51,000
Speaker 5: Yeah no, it's it's written down here in my notes.

547
00:24:51,080 --> 00:24:54,359
Speaker 5: That's that's the only way. That's the only way. Yeah.

548
00:24:54,240 --> 00:24:56,240
Speaker 5: Uh you know, but he's dealing with, uh, with an

549
00:24:56,240 --> 00:24:59,439
Speaker 5: injury that he's had for months. I like, I know

550
00:24:59,480 --> 00:25:02,080
Speaker 5: he's very likely to play in this game. Like, I

551
00:25:02,080 --> 00:25:04,360
Speaker 5: don't see him missing week one, but I don't think

552
00:25:04,400 --> 00:25:07,679
Speaker 5: he's going to be in full football shape, and so

553
00:25:07,840 --> 00:25:11,280
Speaker 5: that's something to monitor here. And the Colts, like they

554
00:25:11,280 --> 00:25:15,639
Speaker 5: have a really interesting situation. And so they have winnable

555
00:25:15,840 --> 00:25:19,679
Speaker 5: but divisional road games in weeks one and two, and

556
00:25:19,720 --> 00:25:22,160
Speaker 5: then in week three they have a home opener against

557
00:25:22,160 --> 00:25:24,880
Speaker 5: the Chiefs, who have three extra days of rest. Good

558
00:25:24,960 --> 00:25:27,600
Speaker 5: luck with that game. And then they have three more

559
00:25:27,680 --> 00:25:32,400
Speaker 5: divisional games sandwiched around a road game at the Broncos

560
00:25:32,880 --> 00:25:37,240
Speaker 5: on short rest. That is a horrible opening schedule. And

561
00:25:37,280 --> 00:25:40,560
Speaker 5: that's five divisional games in the first seven weeks of

562
00:25:40,600 --> 00:25:43,480
Speaker 5: the season, and then they don't have another divisional game

563
00:25:43,800 --> 00:25:48,080
Speaker 5: until Week eighteen against the Texans. So like it's not

564
00:25:48,160 --> 00:25:51,480
Speaker 5: as if like week one is ever a must win game,

565
00:25:51,760 --> 00:25:54,800
Speaker 5: but like, man, it's kind it's kind of a must

566
00:25:54,840 --> 00:25:57,879
Speaker 5: win game for the Colts already because like the road

567
00:25:58,560 --> 00:26:02,200
Speaker 5: is kind of rough after this. And well, as you mentioned,

568
00:26:02,440 --> 00:26:05,639
Speaker 5: the Colts have been bad in week one, like historically

569
00:26:05,680 --> 00:26:09,400
Speaker 5: Frank Reich three and one against the spread in week one.

570
00:26:09,240 --> 00:26:12,720
Speaker 4: And ru, I mean, how is it even possible? Yeah?

571
00:26:12,880 --> 00:26:16,080
Speaker 5: Yeah, And and Matt Ryan, like, I mean he's five

572
00:26:16,119 --> 00:26:19,199
Speaker 5: and nine against the spread in week one also, So

573
00:26:19,440 --> 00:26:21,480
Speaker 5: like you put those two together and it's like, maybe

574
00:26:21,520 --> 00:26:24,560
Speaker 5: this doesn't start out all that well for them. And

575
00:26:24,840 --> 00:26:27,040
Speaker 5: you know the Houston Texans. You know, we talked about

576
00:26:27,040 --> 00:26:30,680
Speaker 5: divisional underdogs before, especially like a teams that didn't make

577
00:26:30,680 --> 00:26:34,200
Speaker 5: the postseason fifty three twenty three and two against the

578
00:26:34,280 --> 00:26:37,920
Speaker 5: spread in Week one, like that is that is dynamic there.

579
00:26:37,960 --> 00:26:41,080
Speaker 5: And the matchup I'm looking at for this game is

580
00:26:41,320 --> 00:26:44,840
Speaker 5: quarterback Davis Mills against the Colts secondary. And that secondary

581
00:26:45,080 --> 00:26:48,760
Speaker 5: is not last year's unit at all. So Kenny Moore,

582
00:26:48,880 --> 00:26:51,760
Speaker 5: he's still there in the slot, but the perimeter starters

583
00:26:51,760 --> 00:26:55,280
Speaker 5: at quarnerback Xavier Rhodes and Rokisen they are gone. Backup

584
00:26:55,359 --> 00:26:59,120
Speaker 5: quarterback TJ. Carey is gone. At safety, the Colts had

585
00:26:59,200 --> 00:27:02,119
Speaker 5: five players play one hundred snaps last year. Four of

586
00:27:02,160 --> 00:27:06,840
Speaker 5: them are gone. So it is a really rebuilt back

587
00:27:07,000 --> 00:27:11,159
Speaker 5: end unit. And defensive quarter Matt Everfluse this is gone.

588
00:27:11,400 --> 00:27:13,520
Speaker 5: This is the yeah, right, yeah, that is the big one.

589
00:27:13,520 --> 00:27:16,800
Speaker 5: So it's not just a lot of turnover within their

590
00:27:17,320 --> 00:27:20,199
Speaker 5: their cover unit. It's that the guy who oversaw the

591
00:27:20,240 --> 00:27:23,040
Speaker 5: cover unit is also gone. And now they have Gus Bradley, who,

592
00:27:23,119 --> 00:27:26,560
Speaker 5: like I would say, like feels like a master of mediocrity,

593
00:27:26,840 --> 00:27:29,760
Speaker 5: Like he's on his third coordinator job in as many years,

594
00:27:30,200 --> 00:27:33,520
Speaker 5: and he has like a break but don't bend defense,

595
00:27:33,840 --> 00:27:35,560
Speaker 5: Like over the past three years.

596
00:27:38,880 --> 00:27:41,800
Speaker 4: There's just snapping half guys.

597
00:27:42,000 --> 00:27:44,480
Speaker 5: There's no other way to describe it. Like his defenses

598
00:27:44,680 --> 00:27:46,840
Speaker 5: over the past three years have been number ten in

599
00:27:46,960 --> 00:27:50,640
Speaker 5: yards allowed but number twenty one in scoring. Like it's

600
00:27:50,760 --> 00:27:54,359
Speaker 5: just like that, that's not something that makes sense, but

601
00:27:54,480 --> 00:27:57,199
Speaker 5: for him it kind of does. And you know, they

602
00:27:57,240 --> 00:27:59,879
Speaker 5: added Stefan Gilmore as their number one corner. That's a

603
00:28:00,040 --> 00:28:02,840
Speaker 5: good addition, but he's thirty two years old. In September,

604
00:28:03,320 --> 00:28:08,560
Speaker 5: you know, they brought in Brandon fashion Facisan faxin I

605
00:28:08,560 --> 00:28:11,080
Speaker 5: don't even know how to pronounce his name. That probably

606
00:28:11,080 --> 00:28:13,040
Speaker 5: says more about me, but it also says a little

607
00:28:13,080 --> 00:28:15,800
Speaker 5: something about him, Like he's going to be the other

608
00:28:16,040 --> 00:28:19,160
Speaker 5: starting perimeter corner for them, and the only reason he's

609
00:28:19,200 --> 00:28:22,280
Speaker 5: there is because he's a Gus Bradley favorite who knows

610
00:28:22,320 --> 00:28:24,920
Speaker 5: the system from their time together the past four years

611
00:28:24,960 --> 00:28:27,760
Speaker 5: with the Chargers and then the Raiders last year. But

612
00:28:27,800 --> 00:28:32,080
Speaker 5: he is a total liability in coverage for his career

613
00:28:32,359 --> 00:28:35,040
Speaker 5: one point three to three yards per coverage snap played,

614
00:28:35,320 --> 00:28:39,520
Speaker 5: including the playoffs and they're starting safety. Nick Cross is

615
00:28:39,560 --> 00:28:42,440
Speaker 5: a rookie like Bradley, does not seem like the kind

616
00:28:42,480 --> 00:28:45,920
Speaker 5: of coordinator who can quickly pull together a secondary with

617
00:28:46,120 --> 00:28:50,960
Speaker 5: that much turnover in vulnerability. And then as for Davis Mills, Yeah,

618
00:28:51,000 --> 00:28:53,840
Speaker 5: like it was an up and down rookie season for him,

619
00:28:54,080 --> 00:28:56,360
Speaker 5: but he finished the year once he returned to the

620
00:28:56,360 --> 00:28:59,480
Speaker 5: starting lineup on a pretty good hot streak twelve hundred

621
00:28:59,520 --> 00:29:02,800
Speaker 5: yards past, seen nine touchdowns of just two interceptions. Like

622
00:29:03,040 --> 00:29:07,600
Speaker 5: he actually looked like a rookie who was ascending. And that's,

623
00:29:07,640 --> 00:29:09,400
Speaker 5: you know, in comparison to a lot of the other

624
00:29:09,560 --> 00:29:13,160
Speaker 5: rookies who were playing last year who just didn't really

625
00:29:13,200 --> 00:29:17,680
Speaker 5: improve throughout the season. So he could maybe experience the

626
00:29:17,800 --> 00:29:21,440
Speaker 5: second year progression that a lot of quarterbacks experience. He

627
00:29:21,520 --> 00:29:24,920
Speaker 5: still has some continuity with offensive coordinator pet Hamilton, who

628
00:29:25,040 --> 00:29:28,160
Speaker 5: was his position coach in the passing game coordinator last year.

629
00:29:29,120 --> 00:29:32,640
Speaker 5: He's got some interesting weapons there. Brandon Cooks, a very

630
00:29:32,640 --> 00:29:37,160
Speaker 5: steady professional receiver, and then Nico Collins as an upside

631
00:29:37,160 --> 00:29:40,120
Speaker 5: wide receiver, and Brevin Jordan, as you know, a young,

632
00:29:40,400 --> 00:29:45,680
Speaker 5: pretty intriguing pass catching tight end who was the best

633
00:29:45,760 --> 00:29:49,280
Speaker 5: tight end prospect of his high school recruitment class was

634
00:29:49,320 --> 00:29:52,440
Speaker 5: pretty good. In college, I think went underdrafted last year,

635
00:29:52,800 --> 00:29:56,480
Speaker 5: and in the preseason was getting the super majority of

636
00:29:56,520 --> 00:29:59,000
Speaker 5: first team snaps. Like you put all that together and

637
00:29:59,040 --> 00:30:02,840
Speaker 5: it's like you could see this situation, especially in garbage time,

638
00:30:02,920 --> 00:30:06,320
Speaker 5: getting the back door cover where against the secondary that

639
00:30:07,000 --> 00:30:10,960
Speaker 5: just hasn't hasn't merged yet, being able to move down

640
00:30:11,040 --> 00:30:13,760
Speaker 5: the field and cover for us. So that's where I

641
00:30:13,800 --> 00:30:18,240
Speaker 5: am Texans plus seven. I think the Colts win. I

642
00:30:18,280 --> 00:30:21,200
Speaker 5: think they finally get the win, but I think the Texans.

643
00:30:20,800 --> 00:30:23,520
Speaker 3: Cover just I was just gonna say to him, Gus Bradley,

644
00:30:23,560 --> 00:30:25,400
Speaker 3: like if you look at his I was, I was

645
00:30:25,480 --> 00:30:28,280
Speaker 3: sitting here just going through like Gus Bradley's because he

646
00:30:28,360 --> 00:30:30,800
Speaker 3: when he when he he basically got the Jaguars job

647
00:30:31,480 --> 00:30:34,000
Speaker 3: because the Legion of Boom was awesome.

648
00:30:33,880 --> 00:30:37,600
Speaker 4: Which like I mean, you know it was, yeah, could work.

649
00:30:37,600 --> 00:30:39,840
Speaker 4: I mean it was awesome. Yeah, It's like it's gonna work.

650
00:30:39,720 --> 00:30:41,280
Speaker 3: If you can get it right, like coaching up the

651
00:30:41,360 --> 00:30:44,440
Speaker 3: Legion of Boom. And then obviously, you know, Jacksonville was

652
00:30:44,520 --> 00:30:46,200
Speaker 3: terrible throughout his entire tenure.

653
00:30:46,240 --> 00:30:47,000
Speaker 4: With the Chargers.

654
00:30:47,040 --> 00:30:49,040
Speaker 3: He had like two good years as defensive coordinator. But

655
00:30:49,040 --> 00:30:50,600
Speaker 3: if you look at it, it's like, I mean, Derwin James,

656
00:30:50,680 --> 00:30:52,000
Speaker 3: Joey Bosea, and Melvin Ingram were I.

657
00:30:52,000 --> 00:30:55,200
Speaker 4: Mean, he had like players. Yeah, Mi Sequille Leonard is

658
00:30:55,200 --> 00:30:55,640
Speaker 4: a player.

659
00:30:55,720 --> 00:30:58,120
Speaker 3: The Forest Butner is a player, but that secondary does

660
00:30:58,120 --> 00:31:01,360
Speaker 3: not have the same talent that he had his previous stops.

661
00:31:01,360 --> 00:31:03,440
Speaker 3: And I think that is that could be a problem

662
00:31:03,480 --> 00:31:06,880
Speaker 3: for this Cults defense, especially early in the season.

663
00:31:07,120 --> 00:31:09,240
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, Matt, you and I talked about it

664
00:31:09,280 --> 00:31:12,120
Speaker 1: on the win Totals episode. With this Texans team, they're

665
00:31:12,160 --> 00:31:14,400
Speaker 1: numbers four and a half, which I think is ridiculous

666
00:31:14,440 --> 00:31:16,360
Speaker 1: for a team that won four games last year and

667
00:31:17,080 --> 00:31:19,120
Speaker 1: is better now than they were last season.

668
00:31:19,560 --> 00:31:22,640
Speaker 2: I like Lovey Smith, but the most important thing for

669
00:31:22,680 --> 00:31:24,600
Speaker 2: me here is that this roster isn't actually one of

670
00:31:24,640 --> 00:31:27,280
Speaker 2: a rebuilding team. It's not super young. It's actually one

671
00:31:27,280 --> 00:31:28,960
Speaker 2: of the older rosters in the league.

672
00:31:29,520 --> 00:31:31,960
Speaker 1: There are gonna be enough veterans there that they're not

673
00:31:31,960 --> 00:31:34,120
Speaker 1: going to be making all of the rookie mistakes and

674
00:31:34,160 --> 00:31:36,640
Speaker 1: the growing pains, and I think that they're going to

675
00:31:36,680 --> 00:31:38,920
Speaker 1: be able to come together in a way where the

676
00:31:38,920 --> 00:31:42,040
Speaker 1: Texans can at least cover this game, if not surprise

677
00:31:42,080 --> 00:31:44,440
Speaker 1: a lot of people maybe not here, but this year

678
00:31:45,240 --> 00:31:48,880
Speaker 1: we'll have to say, but I think that I'm completely

679
00:31:48,960 --> 00:31:53,320
Speaker 1: with you at Texans plus seven. Guys, football season is here,

680
00:31:53,360 --> 00:31:54,720
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681
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690
00:32:22,440 --> 00:32:25,400
Speaker 1: football season and let's cash some tickets together.

691
00:32:25,720 --> 00:32:26,600
Speaker 2: Now back to the show.

692
00:32:27,440 --> 00:32:30,200
Speaker 1: Let's move on here to the Giants and the Titans,

693
00:32:30,200 --> 00:32:32,200
Speaker 1: because you guys are in agreement on this one.

694
00:32:32,240 --> 00:32:33,360
Speaker 2: The Titans are laying.

695
00:32:33,200 --> 00:32:36,520
Speaker 1: Five and a half at home and you're both riding

696
00:32:36,520 --> 00:32:37,640
Speaker 1: Giants plus five and a half.

697
00:32:37,640 --> 00:32:41,080
Speaker 4: Well, yeah, I think you know.

698
00:32:41,800 --> 00:32:45,320
Speaker 3: We our job when we're I mean, by the way,

699
00:32:45,040 --> 00:32:46,800
Speaker 3: so thank Our job is to watch football and talk

700
00:32:46,800 --> 00:32:50,320
Speaker 3: about it, which is so stupid by the way, but

701
00:32:51,160 --> 00:32:53,920
Speaker 3: it's awesome, don't be wrong. But the you know, you

702
00:32:53,920 --> 00:32:55,680
Speaker 3: look at our job also is to look at what

703
00:32:55,720 --> 00:32:57,840
Speaker 3: happened over the course of the off seasons, determined Okay,

704
00:32:57,880 --> 00:33:00,240
Speaker 3: what does this do to what are these sort of

705
00:33:00,240 --> 00:33:02,240
Speaker 3: it's due to a particular team, Like, you know, is

706
00:33:02,240 --> 00:33:04,000
Speaker 3: this team you know up down? Like where do I

707
00:33:04,000 --> 00:33:06,480
Speaker 3: think they'll go? And I don't think the Giants are

708
00:33:06,520 --> 00:33:10,560
Speaker 3: going to be good. And Joe Shane like.

709
00:33:10,680 --> 00:33:12,960
Speaker 4: Even basically came out and said it. He's like, they like,

710
00:33:13,000 --> 00:33:14,680
Speaker 4: what do you think about your exportations this year?

711
00:33:14,680 --> 00:33:16,600
Speaker 3: He's like, We've got to play the hand we were dealt,

712
00:33:16,640 --> 00:33:19,720
Speaker 3: which is which is like GM four, I'm expected to

713
00:33:19,720 --> 00:33:22,360
Speaker 3: win three games at draft bright showing it's like basically

714
00:33:23,840 --> 00:33:28,600
Speaker 3: basically why so the Giants go out and they hire

715
00:33:28,640 --> 00:33:32,280
Speaker 3: Brian Dable, massive upgrade of Joe Judge, they draft Evan Neil,

716
00:33:32,440 --> 00:33:33,960
Speaker 3: massive upgrade on the offensive line.

717
00:33:34,640 --> 00:33:35,920
Speaker 4: There's a there's a.

718
00:33:35,960 --> 00:33:38,640
Speaker 3: Gonna be an an like an emphasis on trying to

719
00:33:38,680 --> 00:33:41,040
Speaker 3: make Daniel Jones look good because it'll make you, even

720
00:33:41,080 --> 00:33:42,800
Speaker 3: if he doesn't look good enough that you keep him

721
00:33:42,840 --> 00:33:46,360
Speaker 3: at least look good in the eyes of ownership. They

722
00:33:46,360 --> 00:33:48,800
Speaker 3: had a great draft, and on the other side of it,

723
00:33:48,840 --> 00:33:51,239
Speaker 3: the Titans trade A J. Brown in the draft and

724
00:33:51,400 --> 00:33:54,400
Speaker 3: like switch to Trailon Burks, which is a massive, massive downgrade. Like,

725
00:33:54,720 --> 00:33:56,640
Speaker 3: you know, I don't want to dog Trailon Burks as

726
00:33:56,680 --> 00:33:59,160
Speaker 3: a prospect, but a J. Brown is a top ten

727
00:33:59,280 --> 00:34:02,440
Speaker 3: fifteen NFL receiver easily, and you know.

728
00:34:03,200 --> 00:34:04,080
Speaker 4: Traylon Burks is not.

729
00:34:04,640 --> 00:34:06,800
Speaker 3: They have Robert Woods, who is a great run blocking

730
00:34:06,840 --> 00:34:08,959
Speaker 3: wide receiver. That's very nice for Derek Henry, but Henry

731
00:34:09,040 --> 00:34:10,080
Speaker 3: sort of, you know, I think they have to be

732
00:34:10,120 --> 00:34:11,720
Speaker 3: a little lighter with him in terms of his carries

733
00:34:11,760 --> 00:34:13,480
Speaker 3: this year, especially out of the gate, given what happened

734
00:34:13,520 --> 00:34:16,439
Speaker 3: last year. I think the Giants were just like live

735
00:34:16,520 --> 00:34:19,319
Speaker 3: to win this game outright and well by virtue of

736
00:34:19,360 --> 00:34:23,239
Speaker 3: just improving with the coaching staff and the weapons too.

737
00:34:23,239 --> 00:34:25,520
Speaker 3: Wando Robinson I think can have a big year. This

738
00:34:25,560 --> 00:34:27,920
Speaker 3: is a spot where the to me, it's an easy

739
00:34:28,000 --> 00:34:30,399
Speaker 3: bet on the Giants against the Tennessee team that has

740
00:34:30,520 --> 00:34:33,560
Speaker 3: severely downgraded now with Harrol Landry out too for the season,

741
00:34:33,719 --> 00:34:35,839
Speaker 3: downgraded on both sides of the ball over the course

742
00:34:35,880 --> 00:34:36,440
Speaker 3: of the all season.

743
00:34:37,560 --> 00:34:39,960
Speaker 2: Are you saying you're not a believer in Ryan Tannehill.

744
00:34:39,840 --> 00:34:42,080
Speaker 4: I like Ryan Tannehill, but I don't.

745
00:34:42,120 --> 00:34:46,799
Speaker 6: I'm not like, it didn't make me feel anything like, like, man,

746
00:34:46,880 --> 00:34:49,040
Speaker 6: Ryan Tannehill, like you know, like I say, you know,

747
00:34:49,080 --> 00:34:51,960
Speaker 6: you say like you're like Tom Brady, you know, if

748
00:34:52,000 --> 00:34:52,600
Speaker 6: you feel.

749
00:34:53,680 --> 00:34:55,799
Speaker 1: This team is playing out the string this year until

750
00:34:55,800 --> 00:34:56,960
Speaker 1: they can start Malik wellis.

751
00:34:57,000 --> 00:34:59,040
Speaker 2: But Matt, you're also on the Giants.

752
00:34:59,360 --> 00:35:02,759
Speaker 5: Yeah, And you know we talked about the Titans in

753
00:35:02,880 --> 00:35:05,960
Speaker 5: earlier episodes, you know, betting the under on their season

754
00:35:05,960 --> 00:35:10,160
Speaker 5: win total. They're a bet against team for me pretty

755
00:35:10,239 --> 00:35:13,919
Speaker 5: repeatedly throughout this season, and it starts here. I do

756
00:35:14,040 --> 00:35:18,680
Speaker 5: have some pause in that the Giants offensive line, although

757
00:35:18,719 --> 00:35:21,080
Speaker 5: it was upgraded with the addition of Evan Neil, it

758
00:35:21,080 --> 00:35:25,560
Speaker 5: has suffered a series of injuries during the preseason and

759
00:35:26,160 --> 00:35:28,040
Speaker 5: so it's better than it was last year, but like

760
00:35:28,120 --> 00:35:31,759
Speaker 5: it's thin. It does not have really any depth there,

761
00:35:32,800 --> 00:35:35,920
Speaker 5: especially on the interior. So that is something that makes

762
00:35:35,920 --> 00:35:40,520
Speaker 5: me a little bit nervous, you know that said, I

763
00:35:40,560 --> 00:35:44,480
Speaker 5: just think this this Titans team is massively overrated based

764
00:35:44,520 --> 00:35:46,919
Speaker 5: on what they did last year. And Daniel Jones twelve

765
00:35:47,000 --> 00:35:49,319
Speaker 5: and six against the spread on the road, eleven and

766
00:35:49,400 --> 00:35:51,960
Speaker 5: four against the spread as a road underdog, Like this

767
00:35:52,080 --> 00:35:54,440
Speaker 5: is just like the kind of guy you want to

768
00:35:54,560 --> 00:35:58,440
Speaker 5: back in this situation. And Mike Rabel for the Tennessee

769
00:35:58,480 --> 00:36:01,439
Speaker 5: Titans one to three against the spread in Week one

770
00:36:01,760 --> 00:36:04,439
Speaker 5: fifteen to twenty one and one against the spread as

771
00:36:04,440 --> 00:36:07,760
Speaker 5: a favorite, and like I feel like that makes sense,

772
00:36:07,840 --> 00:36:09,880
Speaker 5: Like Rabel is the kind of coach you want to

773
00:36:09,960 --> 00:36:13,200
Speaker 5: back as an underdog and want to bet against as

774
00:36:13,239 --> 00:36:17,200
Speaker 5: a favorite because he has a really conservative way of

775
00:36:17,560 --> 00:36:21,080
Speaker 5: managing his team. And for me, some of this comes

776
00:36:21,080 --> 00:36:24,240
Speaker 5: down to the Giants secondary versus the Titans pass catchers.

777
00:36:24,239 --> 00:36:27,200
Speaker 5: Like I think if you look at what these teams

778
00:36:27,200 --> 00:36:29,640
Speaker 5: did last year and the players that they have, the

779
00:36:29,800 --> 00:36:33,080
Speaker 5: edge goes to the Titans and a lot of situations

780
00:36:33,440 --> 00:36:35,480
Speaker 5: except in this situation, but this is one of the

781
00:36:35,520 --> 00:36:39,560
Speaker 5: most important matchups of the game, Like the passing game

782
00:36:39,600 --> 00:36:44,239
Speaker 5: is often what dictates how teams perform against the spread.

783
00:36:44,440 --> 00:36:47,520
Speaker 5: And the Giants, I think, you know, they've had turnover

784
00:36:47,640 --> 00:36:50,880
Speaker 5: in their secondary, Like it's not a good secondary. They

785
00:36:50,960 --> 00:36:55,920
Speaker 5: lost cornerback James Bradbury also like safety slash cornerback Logan

786
00:36:56,000 --> 00:37:00,000
Speaker 5: Ryan Andrew Bill Peppers lost all of those guys this offseason,

787
00:37:00,560 --> 00:37:03,719
Speaker 5: but they still have some pretty decent continuity, Like all

788
00:37:03,760 --> 00:37:07,280
Speaker 5: five projected starters this year were on the team last

789
00:37:07,360 --> 00:37:10,319
Speaker 5: year and got meaningful playing time, so they at least

790
00:37:10,360 --> 00:37:13,440
Speaker 5: have some continuity as a unit. And number one cornerback

791
00:37:13,440 --> 00:37:16,560
Speaker 5: of Dori Jackson, I think is a really underappreciated player.

792
00:37:16,880 --> 00:37:19,480
Speaker 5: Like not only has he exhibited the ability to shatterw

793
00:37:19,560 --> 00:37:23,279
Speaker 5: receivers throughout his career, but unlike most perimeter corners, he

794
00:37:23,480 --> 00:37:26,640
Speaker 5: actually does line up in the slot, and I think

795
00:37:26,680 --> 00:37:30,440
Speaker 5: that gives you know, defensive coordinator Don Martindell or Wink

796
00:37:30,600 --> 00:37:35,400
Speaker 5: Martindell more flexibility with his coverages. And you know, Jackson,

797
00:37:36,280 --> 00:37:38,759
Speaker 5: he's never had a coverage grade lower than sixty five,

798
00:37:39,000 --> 00:37:41,840
Speaker 5: and last year he was really dominant, zero point sixty

799
00:37:41,920 --> 00:37:44,759
Speaker 5: one yards per coverage snap, four point nine to eight

800
00:37:44,840 --> 00:37:48,480
Speaker 5: yards per target allowed. Like that puts him in like

801
00:37:48,680 --> 00:37:51,279
Speaker 5: some pretty elite territory. And it's just like, I know,

802
00:37:51,360 --> 00:37:54,200
Speaker 5: it's just one year, but like last year, he played

803
00:37:54,280 --> 00:37:56,400
Speaker 5: really well. And so if he can man up either

804
00:37:57,640 --> 00:38:00,560
Speaker 5: either Robert Woods or Traylon Burks on the preimi and

805
00:38:00,600 --> 00:38:03,280
Speaker 5: then if the Giants can shut down the other receiver

806
00:38:03,600 --> 00:38:08,399
Speaker 5: with safety help, Westbrook Akine and Austin Hooper are those

807
00:38:08,440 --> 00:38:11,200
Speaker 5: two guys gonna make the Giants pay, like probably not.

808
00:38:12,080 --> 00:38:14,759
Speaker 5: And so even with the subpar secondary, I think the

809
00:38:14,800 --> 00:38:17,840
Speaker 5: Giants can kind of like force quote unquote force the

810
00:38:17,880 --> 00:38:20,839
Speaker 5: Titans to run the ball more, as if they need

811
00:38:20,920 --> 00:38:23,520
Speaker 5: any more incentive to give Derek Henry the ball. But

812
00:38:23,800 --> 00:38:27,080
Speaker 5: if the Titans are just running every play, I think

813
00:38:27,120 --> 00:38:29,160
Speaker 5: that means that this is a pretty close game, like

814
00:38:29,239 --> 00:38:31,680
Speaker 5: more of a field goal game than a five and

815
00:38:31,680 --> 00:38:34,160
Speaker 5: a half point game. So I will take the extra

816
00:38:34,200 --> 00:38:36,360
Speaker 5: points here like will with the Giants.

817
00:38:37,239 --> 00:38:40,440
Speaker 1: The next game up is the Niners at the Bears,

818
00:38:40,480 --> 00:38:46,600
Speaker 1: the Bears getting seven points at Soldier Field against San Francisco. Here, Matt,

819
00:38:46,719 --> 00:38:49,560
Speaker 1: you are on this one with Bears plus seven. I

820
00:38:49,640 --> 00:38:50,560
Speaker 1: am right there with you.

821
00:38:51,239 --> 00:38:55,640
Speaker 5: Yeah, it feels kind of disgusting, but this is just

822
00:38:55,640 --> 00:38:58,080
Speaker 5: what the number says. Here and the forty nine ers

823
00:38:58,120 --> 00:39:01,600
Speaker 5: are already dealing with some pretty magnificant injuries, the most

824
00:39:01,600 --> 00:39:05,400
Speaker 5: recent of which is George Kittle misspracticed on Wednesday. Be

825
00:39:05,440 --> 00:39:08,040
Speaker 5: sure to monitor that, but you know, non zero chance

826
00:39:08,120 --> 00:39:12,640
Speaker 5: he doesn't play in Week one. They're starting singer Daniel Brunskill.

827
00:39:13,000 --> 00:39:15,359
Speaker 5: He has a hamstring injury. It looks like he's going

828
00:39:15,400 --> 00:39:17,600
Speaker 5: to be out and two guys who were definitely out

829
00:39:17,640 --> 00:39:21,240
Speaker 5: in the secondary, cornerback Jason Verrett and safety Jimmy Ward.

830
00:39:21,600 --> 00:39:24,359
Speaker 5: So that is all pretty significant. And I just want

831
00:39:24,360 --> 00:39:27,400
Speaker 5: to say, like brun skills, if he is out, that

832
00:39:27,600 --> 00:39:30,520
Speaker 5: means that the forty nine ers are starting three new

833
00:39:30,800 --> 00:39:34,359
Speaker 5: interior players on their offensive line, Like it seems like

834
00:39:34,440 --> 00:39:37,400
Speaker 5: that might be something that could be detrimental to starting

835
00:39:37,480 --> 00:39:40,600
Speaker 5: quarterback Trey Lance, who is like just entering his first

836
00:39:40,680 --> 00:39:44,279
Speaker 5: year as a starter. And also I just want to say,

837
00:39:44,320 --> 00:39:47,719
Speaker 5: like Verrett and Ward being out, that leaves them incredibly

838
00:39:47,800 --> 00:39:51,040
Speaker 5: thin in the secondary after they had offseason departures of

839
00:39:51,320 --> 00:39:56,000
Speaker 5: starters Josh Norman, Kawan Williams, and jew Quisky Tart as

840
00:39:56,040 --> 00:39:59,680
Speaker 5: well as the depth safety Tevon Wilson. So that secondary

841
00:39:59,719 --> 00:40:03,000
Speaker 5: for the forty nine ers is really really thin. And

842
00:40:03,640 --> 00:40:05,919
Speaker 5: you know, Tom, we talked about this on the show

843
00:40:06,040 --> 00:40:09,960
Speaker 5: last year, like Kyle Shanahan as a favorite, Okay, Like

844
00:40:10,280 --> 00:40:12,640
Speaker 5: that's all you have to tell me. Kyle Shanahan is

845
00:40:12,640 --> 00:40:14,879
Speaker 5: a favorite, and I'm gonna be betting against him right

846
00:40:14,920 --> 00:40:17,799
Speaker 5: He's sixteen twenty four and one against the spread as

847
00:40:17,800 --> 00:40:21,240
Speaker 5: a favorite, fifteen twenty one and one against the spread

848
00:40:21,280 --> 00:40:24,560
Speaker 5: without Garoppolo as his starter and in Week one, oh

849
00:40:24,680 --> 00:40:29,040
Speaker 5: four and one against the spread just absolute, absolutely horrible

850
00:40:29,360 --> 00:40:31,560
Speaker 5: at the beginning of the year. And you know I

851
00:40:31,640 --> 00:40:34,120
Speaker 5: mentioned the forty nine Ers secondary, This matchup to me

852
00:40:34,200 --> 00:40:37,960
Speaker 5: comes down to justin fields against that secondary. Uh, they

853
00:40:37,960 --> 00:40:40,720
Speaker 5: are really thin and as bad as the Bears offense

854
00:40:40,840 --> 00:40:44,440
Speaker 5: was last year, like it wasn't much worse in dropback

855
00:40:44,520 --> 00:40:48,840
Speaker 5: EPA than the forty nine Ers defense was. So I

856
00:40:48,880 --> 00:40:51,719
Speaker 5: think this is more of an even matchup with fields

857
00:40:51,840 --> 00:40:56,120
Speaker 5: against that secondary than most people would imagine. And it's

858
00:40:55,840 --> 00:40:58,040
Speaker 5: it's it's a tough matchup overall. For Phil is no

859
00:40:58,160 --> 00:41:01,440
Speaker 5: question going against a defensive line that is going to

860
00:41:01,560 --> 00:41:04,160
Speaker 5: keep him pressured all game. But the good thing is

861
00:41:04,480 --> 00:41:06,839
Speaker 5: he's a dual threat quarterback. He was the number one

862
00:41:06,920 --> 00:41:10,320
Speaker 5: dual threat quarterback as a high school recruit in twenty eighteen.

863
00:41:10,640 --> 00:41:13,960
Speaker 5: He has this scrambling ability to escape the pocket and

864
00:41:14,000 --> 00:41:16,960
Speaker 5: pick up chunk yardage. So even though he is going

865
00:41:17,000 --> 00:41:19,320
Speaker 5: to be under pressure, I think he has the skill

866
00:41:19,400 --> 00:41:23,240
Speaker 5: set to minimize the impact of that pressure in this game.

867
00:41:23,560 --> 00:41:26,480
Speaker 5: And with Darnell Mooney and Cole Comet, I think he

868
00:41:26,600 --> 00:41:30,200
Speaker 5: has the guys he needs to attack the what I

869
00:41:30,239 --> 00:41:33,520
Speaker 5: would say is a weekend forty nine or secondary down

870
00:41:33,560 --> 00:41:35,960
Speaker 5: the field and in the middle of the field. And

871
00:41:36,000 --> 00:41:38,080
Speaker 5: I'm not going to put too much stock in the preseason,

872
00:41:38,120 --> 00:41:41,080
Speaker 5: but it is worth noting he actually looked pretty good,

873
00:41:41,280 --> 00:41:43,520
Speaker 5: pretty good in the preseason, better than any of the

874
00:41:43,640 --> 00:41:47,000
Speaker 5: other quarterbacks in the preseason in his draft class. And

875
00:41:47,480 --> 00:41:50,680
Speaker 5: you know, a quarterback entering his second season, it's not

876
00:41:50,880 --> 00:41:54,719
Speaker 5: unthinkable for him to take a significant step forward in

877
00:41:54,800 --> 00:41:57,200
Speaker 5: that year. So I am on the Bears here at

878
00:41:57,200 --> 00:41:58,359
Speaker 5: plus seven you.

879
00:41:58,400 --> 00:42:01,760
Speaker 1: Especially after how that preseason and look, I can't believe

880
00:42:02,480 --> 00:42:05,160
Speaker 1: we're still getting seven points with the Bears in this game.

881
00:42:05,200 --> 00:42:08,120
Speaker 4: Well, Bears have a really bad roster. Yeah they do.

882
00:42:08,440 --> 00:42:10,200
Speaker 4: It is it is one of the two worst rosters

883
00:42:10,239 --> 00:42:11,200
Speaker 4: in football with the Falcons.

884
00:42:11,239 --> 00:42:15,520
Speaker 3: I think, yeah, like there's like there's three guys from

885
00:42:15,520 --> 00:42:17,000
Speaker 3: the on the Bears that you would be like maybe

886
00:42:17,200 --> 00:42:19,040
Speaker 3: four if you count, maybe like four guys where you'd

887
00:42:19,040 --> 00:42:20,440
Speaker 3: be like, oh, yes, I would want that person on

888
00:42:20,520 --> 00:42:22,279
Speaker 3: my roster if I was starting a team. It's like

889
00:42:22,400 --> 00:42:25,960
Speaker 3: movie roquand Jalen Johnson and Fields, Like the field scene

890
00:42:26,000 --> 00:42:26,400
Speaker 3: is interesting.

891
00:42:26,560 --> 00:42:30,279
Speaker 4: What if if Fields takes a massive leap, what is

892
00:42:30,320 --> 00:42:34,279
Speaker 4: the Bear ceiling this year, like win total wise, we're

893
00:42:34,280 --> 00:42:34,960
Speaker 4: trying to figure it out.

894
00:42:35,280 --> 00:42:39,759
Speaker 5: Six wins, right, even with like a massive leap, that's

895
00:42:39,800 --> 00:42:42,840
Speaker 5: like yeah, yeah, I mean I think it would be

896
00:42:42,840 --> 00:42:46,560
Speaker 5: similar to what we saw out of Deshaun Watson with

897
00:42:46,640 --> 00:42:50,080
Speaker 5: the Texans early on, where like he's playing really well

898
00:42:50,239 --> 00:42:53,920
Speaker 5: and it doesn't matter because because they're still losing a

899
00:42:53,920 --> 00:42:54,760
Speaker 5: whole bunch of games.

900
00:42:55,200 --> 00:43:00,279
Speaker 1: Yeah, they did an interesting thing investing in like wide receivers, who,

901
00:43:00,560 --> 00:43:01,600
Speaker 1: let's face it, are cheap.

902
00:43:01,800 --> 00:43:04,279
Speaker 2: But we haven't seen them be bad. We haven't seen

903
00:43:04,320 --> 00:43:06,279
Speaker 2: them be good, but we haven't seen them be bad.

904
00:43:06,280 --> 00:43:08,440
Speaker 2: They've just been stuck behind other guys. I think that

905
00:43:08,480 --> 00:43:09,839
Speaker 2: there's some other Yeah.

906
00:43:09,880 --> 00:43:12,160
Speaker 4: Look, I'm a big galaxy brain guy. That is a

907
00:43:12,160 --> 00:43:15,680
Speaker 4: galaxy brain theory. It's like, no one's seen these guys suck.

908
00:43:15,880 --> 00:43:17,240
Speaker 4: They just never play.

909
00:43:18,400 --> 00:43:21,280
Speaker 1: Yeah, they never played because they were behind really good

910
00:43:21,320 --> 00:43:23,920
Speaker 1: wide receivers. I think it's an interesting strategy. I don't

911
00:43:23,920 --> 00:43:26,759
Speaker 1: think it's gonna work out for them long term, but

912
00:43:26,840 --> 00:43:29,600
Speaker 1: I maybe they get lucky and one of them breaks

913
00:43:29,640 --> 00:43:33,040
Speaker 1: out and Darnell Mooney has someone opposite him, but Justin

914
00:43:33,080 --> 00:43:35,440
Speaker 1: Field is gonna be running for his life anyhow. I

915
00:43:35,480 --> 00:43:37,719
Speaker 1: still like the Bears in this game for everything that

916
00:43:37,800 --> 00:43:40,920
Speaker 1: Matt said, and especially because I already have the clip

917
00:43:40,960 --> 00:43:44,520
Speaker 1: saved from two episodes ago when Matt told me I

918
00:43:44,560 --> 00:43:46,239
Speaker 1: was just flat out wrong about the fact that Trey

919
00:43:46,360 --> 00:43:49,040
Speaker 1: Lance is bad at football, and I am saving that

920
00:43:49,080 --> 00:43:49,800
Speaker 1: for around Week.

921
00:43:49,719 --> 00:43:51,520
Speaker 2: Nine or ten, when the Niners have five wins.

922
00:43:51,760 --> 00:43:53,680
Speaker 4: Trailer's better not be bad at football. I will be

923
00:43:53,920 --> 00:43:57,680
Speaker 4: very poor in best pot is bad at football.

924
00:43:58,120 --> 00:44:01,960
Speaker 1: My argument is this, everything that they said about Zach

925
00:44:02,000 --> 00:44:05,880
Speaker 1: Wilson coming out to the NFL b YU small sample size,

926
00:44:06,040 --> 00:44:12,120
Speaker 1: didn't play anyone cupcake schedule like all of that Trey Lance.

927
00:44:13,520 --> 00:44:18,080
Speaker 1: Really he was playing the heavy hitters at North Dakota State.

928
00:44:18,760 --> 00:44:22,480
Speaker 3: My argum would be that let's like upside riddled quarterback

929
00:44:23,719 --> 00:44:25,680
Speaker 3: is drafted by a team that trades up for him,

930
00:44:25,719 --> 00:44:28,640
Speaker 3: sits for a year, and then it gets to be

931
00:44:28,719 --> 00:44:32,920
Speaker 3: unleashed in super quarterback friendly offense with tons of weapons

932
00:44:33,200 --> 00:44:35,799
Speaker 3: and offensive mastermind calling the place, which is like they're like,

933
00:44:36,560 --> 00:44:38,600
Speaker 3: very closely resembles what happened to Mahomes. I do not

934
00:44:38,640 --> 00:44:40,680
Speaker 3: see he's gonna throw fifty and five thousand just that

935
00:44:40,800 --> 00:44:44,480
Speaker 3: like and look, Kyle Shannan may be paniccked. I mean,

936
00:44:45,320 --> 00:44:47,440
Speaker 3: I think it's possible that Kyle Shannon always wanted Jimmy

937
00:44:47,480 --> 00:44:49,279
Speaker 3: g on the roster as sort of like a fail

938
00:44:49,360 --> 00:44:51,960
Speaker 3: safe just in case trades not ready. Yeah, and I

939
00:44:51,960 --> 00:44:54,480
Speaker 3: think there'll be ups and downs, but I would be

940
00:44:55,120 --> 00:44:58,240
Speaker 3: I would be surprised if he wasn't hashtag good at football.

941
00:44:58,920 --> 00:45:01,719
Speaker 1: I'm I know this is my hot take, but I

942
00:45:01,800 --> 00:45:03,960
Speaker 1: stand it's a hill I'm willing to die on here

943
00:45:04,560 --> 00:45:05,160
Speaker 1: the next game.

944
00:45:05,239 --> 00:45:07,239
Speaker 4: I hope, I hope that you're dead by week five,

945
00:45:09,200 --> 00:45:10,399
Speaker 4: no offense none.

946
00:45:10,480 --> 00:45:12,560
Speaker 2: Taking the next game up here though, we got two

947
00:45:12,560 --> 00:45:14,960
Speaker 2: more to get to the Bucks and the Cowboys are

948
00:45:14,960 --> 00:45:16,960
Speaker 2: going at it, and the Cowboys two and a half

949
00:45:17,000 --> 00:45:21,279
Speaker 2: point home dogs in this spot. Will you're on this

950
00:45:21,400 --> 00:45:24,920
Speaker 2: game here and you are not siding with Tom Brady,

951
00:45:24,920 --> 00:45:26,200
Speaker 2: you are going with the Boys.

952
00:45:26,560 --> 00:45:28,799
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm gonna takenna take the Cowboys as a as

953
00:45:28,840 --> 00:45:31,120
Speaker 3: a short dog at home. I think that this is

954
00:45:31,160 --> 00:45:33,600
Speaker 3: probably best to wait until Sunday night. You know, it's

955
00:45:33,600 --> 00:45:35,360
Speaker 3: the first date at football game of the year. Everyone's

956
00:45:35,360 --> 00:45:37,480
Speaker 3: going to bet on it. People try to get their

957
00:45:37,520 --> 00:45:39,560
Speaker 3: money back. We'll be chasing the favorite Tom Brady on

958
00:45:39,600 --> 00:45:42,200
Speaker 3: the road, you know, against the Cowboys team that like,

959
00:45:42,280 --> 00:45:44,520
Speaker 3: if you look at these these two teams, maybe more

960
00:45:44,560 --> 00:45:48,680
Speaker 3: than anybody or any teams over the last month, the

961
00:45:48,800 --> 00:45:51,359
Speaker 3: general public has been selling these two teams or maybe

962
00:45:51,360 --> 00:45:52,840
Speaker 3: even buying the Eagles and buying.

963
00:45:52,640 --> 00:45:54,560
Speaker 4: The Saints as a result of selling these teams.

964
00:45:54,600 --> 00:45:56,880
Speaker 3: And it's largely offensive line injuries that have caused that

965
00:45:56,920 --> 00:46:00,680
Speaker 3: sort of market shift. I think people, well, with the

966
00:46:00,719 --> 00:46:02,879
Speaker 3: Tyrone Smith news that he's out to December, I think

967
00:46:02,880 --> 00:46:05,399
Speaker 3: people everyone is just abandoning ship on the Cowboys, and

968
00:46:05,680 --> 00:46:08,239
Speaker 3: I get it, like it's it's it's very problematic. But

969
00:46:08,440 --> 00:46:11,680
Speaker 3: I think you make the case that the Buccaneers offensive

970
00:46:11,680 --> 00:46:14,239
Speaker 3: line injuries are almost just as bad relative to the

971
00:46:14,600 --> 00:46:18,640
Speaker 3: quarterback under center because Tom Brady interior pressure is a problem.

972
00:46:19,080 --> 00:46:21,759
Speaker 3: Dan Quinn has played, you know, he's coached a ton

973
00:46:21,760 --> 00:46:23,560
Speaker 3: against the Buccaneers. I don't think he'll be shocked by

974
00:46:23,600 --> 00:46:26,120
Speaker 3: a large portion of the personnel when he's coaching on defense.

975
00:46:26,239 --> 00:46:28,279
Speaker 3: They'll I think they'll rush to Marcus Lawrence and Michael

976
00:46:28,280 --> 00:46:30,839
Speaker 3: Parsons on the inside the force to create really bad

977
00:46:30,880 --> 00:46:36,160
Speaker 3: miss matches for for you know, for for the blocking

978
00:46:36,200 --> 00:46:38,560
Speaker 3: schemes of the Buccaneers. And you're talking about you know,

979
00:46:39,560 --> 00:46:43,239
Speaker 3: like coaching wise, you know, Sean Payton's departure concerns me

980
00:46:43,239 --> 00:46:43,719
Speaker 3: for New Orleans.

981
00:46:43,760 --> 00:46:43,960
Speaker 4: I don't.

982
00:46:43,960 --> 00:46:45,719
Speaker 3: I think I'm talking enough about the fact that Bruce

983
00:46:45,760 --> 00:46:48,239
Speaker 3: Arians has gone and you still have of course Buyer

984
00:46:48,320 --> 00:46:51,960
Speaker 3: Leftficks calling the plays and Tom Brady you know, operating it.

985
00:46:52,080 --> 00:46:54,400
Speaker 3: But like, is Todd bow Is going to take a

986
00:46:54,400 --> 00:46:56,880
Speaker 3: different approach to the offense than than Bruce Arians. Probably

987
00:46:56,920 --> 00:46:59,319
Speaker 3: he's just inherently more conservative. And so I think the

988
00:46:59,360 --> 00:47:04,400
Speaker 3: Cowboys can and generate enough offense to uh to pull that.

989
00:47:04,480 --> 00:47:06,520
Speaker 3: I think I think they'll win this one, and I

990
00:47:06,600 --> 00:47:09,080
Speaker 3: probably shouldn't be home dogs, even with the injuries that

991
00:47:09,080 --> 00:47:09,680
Speaker 3: they've dealt with.

992
00:47:11,160 --> 00:47:14,120
Speaker 1: Matt, I know that you're not necessarily on this game,

993
00:47:14,480 --> 00:47:16,000
Speaker 1: but we talked about last episode.

994
00:47:16,040 --> 00:47:17,560
Speaker 2: You're not high on the Cowboys this year?

995
00:47:18,160 --> 00:47:23,040
Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean, uh, I I'm very skeptical about what

996
00:47:23,200 --> 00:47:28,120
Speaker 5: is going on with their their injury situation at at

997
00:47:28,200 --> 00:47:31,080
Speaker 5: left tackles specifically, and you know, it means that they're

998
00:47:31,080 --> 00:47:34,520
Speaker 5: having to to move guys around and elevate players, you know,

999
00:47:34,760 --> 00:47:38,760
Speaker 5: move swing tackles into starting positions and swing interior alignment

1000
00:47:38,800 --> 00:47:41,440
Speaker 5: and starting left guard positions. And so I'm just I'm

1001
00:47:41,440 --> 00:47:44,839
Speaker 5: skeptical overall, but you know, I I will say that,

1002
00:47:45,160 --> 00:47:50,000
Speaker 5: uh you know, we uh at betting pros do have projections,

1003
00:47:50,000 --> 00:47:51,120
Speaker 5: official projections.

1004
00:47:51,520 --> 00:47:51,759
Speaker 4: Uh.

1005
00:47:51,840 --> 00:47:55,959
Speaker 5: Over I'm overseeing a team with uh different different people

1006
00:47:55,960 --> 00:47:59,680
Speaker 5: who are you know, giving their projections. And we have

1007
00:47:59,840 --> 00:48:02,480
Speaker 5: actually the Cowboys as a team to bet on in

1008
00:48:02,560 --> 00:48:06,239
Speaker 5: this game, and we have them as they should be

1009
00:48:06,400 --> 00:48:09,120
Speaker 5: zero point five underdogs and they're you know, two and

1010
00:48:09,120 --> 00:48:12,120
Speaker 5: a half underdogs. I wouldn't bet this out right if

1011
00:48:12,120 --> 00:48:14,319
Speaker 5: you're on the Cowboys, I would just tease it, you know,

1012
00:48:14,320 --> 00:48:16,960
Speaker 5: because you get to go through the key numbers of

1013
00:48:17,239 --> 00:48:20,120
Speaker 5: three and seven. Uh And at this point, you know.

1014
00:48:20,120 --> 00:48:22,000
Speaker 4: There's so many good teaser legs out there this week.

1015
00:48:22,080 --> 00:48:26,000
Speaker 5: Yeah yeah, and so at this point even eight, you

1016
00:48:26,040 --> 00:48:28,120
Speaker 5: know in the NFL, with some teams going for two

1017
00:48:28,320 --> 00:48:31,000
Speaker 5: like that can it's not a key number, but it's

1018
00:48:31,000 --> 00:48:33,720
Speaker 5: also nice to get that one too in a teaser.

1019
00:48:33,840 --> 00:48:36,200
Speaker 5: So if you're on the Cowboys, that's the way that

1020
00:48:36,239 --> 00:48:37,760
Speaker 5: I would pay Jaguars Cowboys.

1021
00:48:38,320 --> 00:48:41,879
Speaker 3: We are discussed the Jaguars, right, I'd like, I can't

1022
00:48:41,920 --> 00:48:43,840
Speaker 3: remember what games I've talked about at this point, Like

1023
00:48:43,880 --> 00:48:47,640
Speaker 3: over the course is like Jaguars Cowboys teaser both up

1024
00:48:47,680 --> 00:48:49,239
Speaker 3: to eight and a half is a pretty nice little yes.

1025
00:48:49,520 --> 00:48:51,319
Speaker 4: Yeah, I like that one.

1026
00:48:52,000 --> 00:48:52,920
Speaker 2: I like that a lot.

1027
00:48:53,000 --> 00:48:55,759
Speaker 1: And do you guys like the Monday night football game

1028
00:48:55,800 --> 00:48:59,000
Speaker 1: here Broncos at Seahawks, the Hawks getting six and a

1029
00:48:59,080 --> 00:49:04,120
Speaker 1: half points at all, and the Russell Wilson revenge game

1030
00:49:04,239 --> 00:49:07,120
Speaker 1: here will you're going with the Hawks?

1031
00:49:07,320 --> 00:49:07,520
Speaker 4: Yees?

1032
00:49:07,600 --> 00:49:09,600
Speaker 3: So see it's not Russell Wilson revenge game, it's Pete

1033
00:49:09,600 --> 00:49:12,319
Speaker 3: Carroll revenge game. Like Pete Carroll needs a revenge more

1034
00:49:12,320 --> 00:49:14,839
Speaker 3: than Russell Wilson does. Russell, if Russell goes back.

1035
00:49:14,760 --> 00:49:16,239
Speaker 4: And loses, at least be like all right, you know,

1036
00:49:16,320 --> 00:49:18,520
Speaker 4: like you know Pete. I mean like if.

1037
00:49:18,960 --> 00:49:21,279
Speaker 3: Pete Carroll the Seaws is down as you can get

1038
00:49:21,360 --> 00:49:23,200
Speaker 3: right now, nobody wants to buy it on the Seahawks.

1039
00:49:23,680 --> 00:49:26,280
Speaker 3: My theory is that Pete Carroll's trying to recreate twenty

1040
00:49:26,360 --> 00:49:30,200
Speaker 3: eleven to twenty twelve, which two eleven Hue, which is

1041
00:49:30,280 --> 00:49:33,719
Speaker 3: like they went seven to nine. So it's like, not

1042
00:49:33,760 --> 00:49:35,479
Speaker 3: they won the division when you're at that losing record

1043
00:49:35,640 --> 00:49:37,600
Speaker 3: the beat Quake season, but it's like they weren't good

1044
00:49:37,680 --> 00:49:40,440
Speaker 3: teams one game one week they lost. I think it

1045
00:49:40,520 --> 00:49:42,080
Speaker 3: was like Week three, twenty eleven. They lost to the

1046
00:49:42,120 --> 00:49:45,320
Speaker 3: Brown six to three. But like, that's what Pete Carroll's

1047
00:49:45,320 --> 00:49:47,360
Speaker 3: going for. He wants to muddle this thing up. He

1048
00:49:47,400 --> 00:49:49,000
Speaker 3: wants to run the football. He wants it to be

1049
00:49:49,040 --> 00:49:51,560
Speaker 3: a sloppy, ugly game. He didn't want to, you know,

1050
00:49:51,600 --> 00:49:53,239
Speaker 3: to turn the ball over. That's why Lock's not playing.

1051
00:49:53,520 --> 00:49:56,000
Speaker 3: He's play defense, run the ball, aton and drag people

1052
00:49:56,000 --> 00:49:57,000
Speaker 3: into the mud with him.

1053
00:49:57,160 --> 00:49:57,719
Speaker 4: And I think he can.

1054
00:49:57,800 --> 00:49:59,560
Speaker 3: I think he can pull it off, especially early when

1055
00:49:59,600 --> 00:50:03,239
Speaker 3: he Knowsrussell Wilson's tendencies. I think Russ will try to,

1056
00:50:05,120 --> 00:50:07,319
Speaker 3: you know, act like he's this is not a huge deal.

1057
00:50:07,440 --> 00:50:10,400
Speaker 3: But I think even robotic Russ knows how, you know,

1058
00:50:10,560 --> 00:50:11,560
Speaker 3: just how insane it is.

1059
00:50:11,640 --> 00:50:13,719
Speaker 4: He's going back to Seattle for his first game with

1060
00:50:13,760 --> 00:50:16,799
Speaker 4: the Broncos. I like the Seahawks into the crowded, be rowdy.

1061
00:50:16,840 --> 00:50:18,400
Speaker 4: I don't think it'll be like Tom Brady with You're like,

1062
00:50:18,480 --> 00:50:19,279
Speaker 4: oh thanks Tom.

1063
00:50:19,360 --> 00:50:21,440
Speaker 3: I think we'll be like, dude, you kind of bailed

1064
00:50:21,480 --> 00:50:24,240
Speaker 3: on us, like again, SIGs, it never came back Dad,

1065
00:50:24,840 --> 00:50:26,439
Speaker 3: and then you know, and like, and I think they'll

1066
00:50:26,480 --> 00:50:28,799
Speaker 3: be I think they'll cheer pretty loudly against him, maybe

1067
00:50:28,840 --> 00:50:31,520
Speaker 3: respect him early on. But uh, I think the Seahawks

1068
00:50:31,760 --> 00:50:33,680
Speaker 3: I go a little you know, if they know Hacket's

1069
00:50:33,680 --> 00:50:35,799
Speaker 3: ever been a head coach, I don't know if I

1070
00:50:35,840 --> 00:50:38,920
Speaker 3: buy like they have offensive line issues in Denver, the

1071
00:50:38,960 --> 00:50:41,120
Speaker 3: defense won't be as good as Fangio going. I think

1072
00:50:41,120 --> 00:50:43,759
Speaker 3: there's a lot of different sort of angles here that

1073
00:50:43,760 --> 00:50:46,359
Speaker 3: people are just not not seeing because of the Russell

1074
00:50:46,400 --> 00:50:49,600
Speaker 3: Wilson factor. I like the Seahawks and maybe pulling an upset.

1075
00:50:49,680 --> 00:50:53,319
Speaker 1: Honestly, I have the Seahawks have to be the worst

1076
00:50:53,320 --> 00:50:55,440
Speaker 1: team in the league this year, But the fact is

1077
00:50:55,880 --> 00:50:57,279
Speaker 1: I can also see them.

1078
00:50:57,640 --> 00:50:59,279
Speaker 3: I mean, the Jaguars beat the Colts two years ago

1079
00:50:59,320 --> 00:51:00,839
Speaker 3: there were the word and then didn't win another game

1080
00:51:00,840 --> 00:51:01,360
Speaker 3: like anything.

1081
00:51:01,400 --> 00:51:03,520
Speaker 4: You know, Yeah, also.

1082
00:51:03,320 --> 00:51:05,320
Speaker 1: True and wild, and I could see this team muddling

1083
00:51:05,320 --> 00:51:07,560
Speaker 1: through several wins. Like you said, play sloppy. It's a

1084
00:51:07,600 --> 00:51:11,080
Speaker 1: Gino Smith led run, heavy offense where you're just trying

1085
00:51:11,120 --> 00:51:14,160
Speaker 1: to go in and get it done and gets as

1086
00:51:14,280 --> 00:51:15,000
Speaker 1: much as you can.

1087
00:51:15,600 --> 00:51:18,000
Speaker 2: I see completely where you're coming from here.

1088
00:51:18,040 --> 00:51:19,560
Speaker 1: I don't I certainly don't want to lay six and

1089
00:51:19,600 --> 00:51:21,560
Speaker 1: a half with the Broncos on the road in this spot.

1090
00:51:21,760 --> 00:51:25,239
Speaker 5: Matt, what do you think, Yeah, I'm more on the

1091
00:51:25,320 --> 00:51:27,440
Speaker 5: side of the Seahawks, but I think this team is

1092
00:51:27,480 --> 00:51:30,759
Speaker 5: so disgusting that I definitely would not bet it. What

1093
00:51:30,840 --> 00:51:33,560
Speaker 5: I do agree with will On is that this is

1094
00:51:33,560 --> 00:51:37,280
Speaker 5: going to be an ugly game. I think like the

1095
00:51:37,280 --> 00:51:40,120
Speaker 5: the idea of Pete Carroll wanting this to be sloppy,

1096
00:51:40,280 --> 00:51:42,400
Speaker 5: you know, like run the ball three yards in a

1097
00:51:42,440 --> 00:51:45,160
Speaker 5: clouded dust. I think that's that's totally how this game

1098
00:51:45,320 --> 00:51:48,560
Speaker 5: plays out. And I think, you know, with Russell Wilson,

1099
00:51:49,360 --> 00:51:52,440
Speaker 5: like he's a good quarterback, but it is a quarterback

1100
00:51:52,920 --> 00:51:56,480
Speaker 5: in a new offensive system, new receivers, new team. It

1101
00:51:56,480 --> 00:51:59,759
Speaker 5: wouldn't be surprising to see the Broncos. I wouldn't say,

1102
00:51:59,760 --> 00:52:03,200
Speaker 5: like struggle on offense, but just not be as good

1103
00:52:03,400 --> 00:52:05,840
Speaker 5: to start the season as they will be to finish

1104
00:52:05,920 --> 00:52:08,480
Speaker 5: the season on offense. And so you put all of

1105
00:52:08,480 --> 00:52:11,080
Speaker 5: that together and I would say, if I'm betting on

1106
00:52:11,120 --> 00:52:13,799
Speaker 5: this game, I would be betting the under. You can

1107
00:52:13,840 --> 00:52:16,399
Speaker 5: get it forty five and a half, sorry, forty five

1108
00:52:16,440 --> 00:52:19,560
Speaker 5: at DraftKings. The consensus line looking at betting pros right

1109
00:52:19,560 --> 00:52:22,480
Speaker 5: now is forty four and a half, and internally we

1110
00:52:22,560 --> 00:52:26,759
Speaker 5: have this projected at forty two point eight. So I

1111
00:52:26,800 --> 00:52:29,359
Speaker 5: think there is some value here on the under. If

1112
00:52:29,400 --> 00:52:31,960
Speaker 5: I'm betting this game, I am taking the under here.

1113
00:52:32,960 --> 00:52:35,120
Speaker 2: I'm completely with you on that. I could see this

1114
00:52:35,160 --> 00:52:37,280
Speaker 2: being like a twenty four to ten finish or something

1115
00:52:37,320 --> 00:52:37,680
Speaker 2: like that.

1116
00:52:37,960 --> 00:52:40,080
Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, I give it. The under is one of

1117
00:52:40,120 --> 00:52:43,319
Speaker 4: my best bets on my podcast Recivs. I think it's him.

1118
00:52:44,120 --> 00:52:46,719
Speaker 3: I think you're gonna have value on the Seahawks unders

1119
00:52:47,960 --> 00:52:48,960
Speaker 3: for the first three weeks.

1120
00:52:48,760 --> 00:52:51,239
Speaker 4: Of the season. Frankly, like you can even like first

1121
00:52:51,280 --> 00:52:53,799
Speaker 4: half hunders, full game unders. You look at those games

1122
00:52:53,800 --> 00:52:54,720
Speaker 4: that were Gino played.

1123
00:52:55,040 --> 00:52:56,719
Speaker 3: I mean they put thirty one up, they blew the

1124
00:52:56,760 --> 00:52:58,600
Speaker 3: Jaguars out thirty one to seven, but that game still

1125
00:52:58,600 --> 00:53:01,719
Speaker 3: would have flown way under. That thirteen ten game against Pittsburgh.

1126
00:53:01,800 --> 00:53:04,520
Speaker 3: I think it may take a couple of weeks.

1127
00:53:04,360 --> 00:53:07,520
Speaker 4: For the books to realize just how slow Pete Carroll

1128
00:53:07,560 --> 00:53:08,120
Speaker 4: wants to play.

1129
00:53:08,520 --> 00:53:11,239
Speaker 1: Yeah, all right, guys, well that is going to do

1130
00:53:11,280 --> 00:53:14,080
Speaker 1: it for our games of the week here for week one,

1131
00:53:14,160 --> 00:53:17,680
Speaker 1: it is officially football time. We're running long in the tooth.

1132
00:53:17,800 --> 00:53:19,799
Speaker 1: And I know I'm putting you guys on the spot here.

1133
00:53:20,160 --> 00:53:22,520
Speaker 1: It's not on the rundown, but I want to know

1134
00:53:22,560 --> 00:53:24,680
Speaker 1: if you're making it. We talked about Survivor picks at

1135
00:53:24,680 --> 00:53:26,279
Speaker 1: the beginning of the show. I want to bring it

1136
00:53:26,280 --> 00:53:27,840
Speaker 1: back around. If you have to pick one.

1137
00:53:27,760 --> 00:53:30,719
Speaker 2: Game for a Survivor league this week, will where are

1138
00:53:30,760 --> 00:53:31,120
Speaker 2: you going?

1139
00:53:31,360 --> 00:53:31,560
Speaker 4: Well?

1140
00:53:31,600 --> 00:53:35,000
Speaker 3: First of all, podcast running a long and no real

1141
00:53:35,040 --> 00:53:36,799
Speaker 3: semblance of a rundown is basically my.

1142
00:53:36,840 --> 00:53:40,880
Speaker 4: Daily NFL podcast for CBS, so fits the bill very

1143
00:53:40,960 --> 00:53:41,520
Speaker 4: nicely for me.

1144
00:53:43,200 --> 00:53:45,640
Speaker 3: I think that the two spots, I think I'm just

1145
00:53:45,680 --> 00:53:48,359
Speaker 3: gonna go with the Ravens, like Ravens at Jets. It's

1146
00:53:48,400 --> 00:53:50,600
Speaker 3: not like I don't want to do that because I'd

1147
00:53:50,640 --> 00:53:53,000
Speaker 3: like to save the Ravens. I think I picked them

1148
00:53:53,040 --> 00:53:54,120
Speaker 3: to go to the super Bowl from the AC. I

1149
00:53:54,120 --> 00:53:55,960
Speaker 3: think it'll be a very good team, bounce back in

1150
00:53:56,000 --> 00:53:58,680
Speaker 3: a big way. Joe Flack, who may very well be

1151
00:53:58,680 --> 00:54:00,440
Speaker 3: an upgrade for Zach Wilson for this Week one game,

1152
00:54:00,440 --> 00:54:01,640
Speaker 3: which is kind of a problem and you get the

1153
00:54:01,640 --> 00:54:04,480
Speaker 3: revenge factor there. But the the other games that you

1154
00:54:04,520 --> 00:54:07,280
Speaker 3: have to look at Colts at Texans, that's a divisional

1155
00:54:07,360 --> 00:54:08,839
Speaker 3: road game in Week one of the team that had

1156
00:54:08,880 --> 00:54:11,479
Speaker 3: one in Week one since twenty thirteen. I can't go there.

1157
00:54:11,800 --> 00:54:14,960
Speaker 3: And forty nine Ers at Bears. You know the trade Lance. Fact, like,

1158
00:54:14,960 --> 00:54:18,160
Speaker 3: we know what we're getting with the Ravens, their team

1159
00:54:18,200 --> 00:54:21,200
Speaker 3: that dominates in week one. They've blown people out the

1160
00:54:21,280 --> 00:54:23,799
Speaker 3: last few years in Week one the forty nine ers,

1161
00:54:23,880 --> 00:54:25,319
Speaker 3: we think we know what we're getting, but there is

1162
00:54:25,360 --> 00:54:28,120
Speaker 3: a little uncertainty with Cherry Lance versus like the Lamar

1163
00:54:28,200 --> 00:54:30,640
Speaker 3: Jackson and that Ravens offense. There's so much consistency there.

1164
00:54:30,800 --> 00:54:32,720
Speaker 3: There's really no way they should lose to the Jets.

1165
00:54:33,360 --> 00:54:35,960
Speaker 3: But it's this is a really tricky week for survivor

1166
00:54:36,040 --> 00:54:40,680
Speaker 3: because there's just no there's it's a ton of road chalk,

1167
00:54:40,920 --> 00:54:43,640
Speaker 3: and you know you're just gonna have to hope you

1168
00:54:43,719 --> 00:54:46,399
Speaker 3: avoid that one big, you know, sort of shocking week one,

1169
00:54:46,680 --> 00:54:48,120
Speaker 3: you know, underdog victory.

1170
00:54:48,480 --> 00:54:50,120
Speaker 1: You know there's going to be chaos at the top,

1171
00:54:50,239 --> 00:54:53,560
Speaker 1: especially like you said, the amount of touchdown favorites on

1172
00:54:53,600 --> 00:54:55,319
Speaker 1: the road here is ridiculous.

1173
00:54:55,840 --> 00:54:56,680
Speaker 2: I'm a Jets fan.

1174
00:54:56,960 --> 00:55:00,000
Speaker 1: Joe Flacco is absolutely an upgrade over Zach Wilson. Jeez,

1175
00:55:00,400 --> 00:55:02,600
Speaker 1: I do not see I do not see the Jets

1176
00:55:02,600 --> 00:55:04,040
Speaker 1: pulling out a win here. I think I might have

1177
00:55:04,040 --> 00:55:05,560
Speaker 1: to go with that one as well. Matt, do you

1178
00:55:05,560 --> 00:55:07,000
Speaker 1: have a different differing opinion.

1179
00:55:07,400 --> 00:55:11,240
Speaker 5: Yeah, I'm I'm tempted by the Ravens, but a team

1180
00:55:11,280 --> 00:55:13,840
Speaker 5: that stands out to me and I'm scared about a

1181
00:55:13,840 --> 00:55:18,200
Speaker 5: little bit. The Bengals six and a half favorites over

1182
00:55:18,480 --> 00:55:21,399
Speaker 5: the Steelers, and so it's a divisional game, but this

1183
00:55:21,480 --> 00:55:24,040
Speaker 5: is the biggest spread that they have if you're looking

1184
00:55:24,360 --> 00:55:26,480
Speaker 5: at the look ahead market, this is the biggest spread

1185
00:55:26,520 --> 00:55:28,640
Speaker 5: that they have all year. So you know they're a

1186
00:55:28,680 --> 00:55:32,479
Speaker 5: good team if you're going to use him at some point.

1187
00:55:32,600 --> 00:55:34,399
Speaker 5: I feel like this is actually the game to use

1188
00:55:34,440 --> 00:55:36,120
Speaker 5: them and just kind of get them out of the

1189
00:55:36,160 --> 00:55:38,960
Speaker 5: way and save some of the other teams, the better

1190
00:55:39,000 --> 00:55:40,279
Speaker 5: teams for later in the year.

1191
00:55:40,719 --> 00:55:41,200
Speaker 4: Yeah.

1192
00:55:41,000 --> 00:55:43,280
Speaker 3: The one hang up I would have about the Bengals

1193
00:55:43,320 --> 00:55:46,680
Speaker 3: and is that we were talking about on the show

1194
00:55:46,680 --> 00:55:49,400
Speaker 3: and Prisco said that when he was in he was

1195
00:55:49,440 --> 00:55:52,040
Speaker 3: at Bengals camp and he saw Burrow and he said,

1196
00:55:52,040 --> 00:55:55,040
Speaker 3: Burrow looks like he looks frail. Like he looks frail

1197
00:55:55,120 --> 00:55:57,839
Speaker 3: because he's lost he lost so much of pinings. That's

1198
00:55:57,840 --> 00:56:01,440
Speaker 3: the only like concern is because remember last year when

1199
00:56:01,440 --> 00:56:03,440
Speaker 3: he come back in the ACL they were so slow,

1200
00:56:03,560 --> 00:56:07,919
Speaker 3: methodical about the offense early on, and so you just wonder,

1201
00:56:08,000 --> 00:56:10,120
Speaker 3: like if they don't unleash the passing game. Will It'll

1202
00:56:10,160 --> 00:56:12,560
Speaker 3: allow Pittsburgh to hang around, And that's that's just my

1203
00:56:12,600 --> 00:56:13,080
Speaker 3: only concern.

1204
00:56:13,080 --> 00:56:13,359
Speaker 4: I agree.

1205
00:56:13,400 --> 00:56:16,319
Speaker 3: I mean, the Bengals are the biggest home favorite in

1206
00:56:16,400 --> 00:56:19,440
Speaker 3: Week one, right, I mean, yeah, the Steelers have Mitchell Trubisky.

1207
00:56:19,480 --> 00:56:22,319
Speaker 3: It makes a lot of sense that the Borough thing.

1208
00:56:22,360 --> 00:56:24,640
Speaker 3: And there's just there's no easy pick here. That's just

1209
00:56:24,719 --> 00:56:25,279
Speaker 3: amount of line.

1210
00:56:25,640 --> 00:56:27,600
Speaker 1: Yeah, there is no easy pick. I think both of

1211
00:56:27,640 --> 00:56:30,839
Speaker 1: those games are reasonable. I love being able to pick

1212
00:56:30,840 --> 00:56:34,520
Speaker 1: a home team, especially in Survivor. I think if I

1213
00:56:34,560 --> 00:56:36,560
Speaker 1: had to present a third option, I'm going Eagles over

1214
00:56:36,640 --> 00:56:40,360
Speaker 1: Lions their four point road favorites. It's not my favorite's Again,

1215
00:56:40,640 --> 00:56:42,279
Speaker 1: there's not a lot that I love on this one.

1216
00:56:42,440 --> 00:56:45,080
Speaker 1: I just think that might be the spot where you

1217
00:56:45,160 --> 00:56:47,160
Speaker 1: use the Eagles here. I'd like to save them for later.

1218
00:56:47,200 --> 00:56:49,919
Speaker 1: The Lions might be better. But I'm trying to pick

1219
00:56:49,960 --> 00:56:51,920
Speaker 1: something here and make the best of a bad situation.

1220
00:56:54,080 --> 00:56:55,600
Speaker 4: I mean, I got the Eagles in the Super Bowl

1221
00:56:55,640 --> 00:56:56,200
Speaker 4: against Ravements.

1222
00:56:56,200 --> 00:56:58,400
Speaker 3: You won't hear me complain I played out of the Eagles,

1223
00:56:58,400 --> 00:57:00,719
Speaker 3: But I mean I think the line probably a little eever,

1224
00:57:00,760 --> 00:57:02,080
Speaker 3: and I'm trying to see if the Eagles have.

1225
00:57:03,239 --> 00:57:05,399
Speaker 4: They don't have a ton of great. They don't really have.

1226
00:57:05,320 --> 00:57:09,160
Speaker 3: Any good Maybe the Jaguars at home in a couple

1227
00:57:09,239 --> 00:57:11,319
Speaker 3: of weeks. I'd be in early October. But I mean like,

1228
00:57:11,400 --> 00:57:13,960
Speaker 3: you got to survive. Yeah, use them, so don't don't

1229
00:57:13,960 --> 00:57:14,319
Speaker 3: hate it.

1230
00:57:14,880 --> 00:57:16,640
Speaker 1: You got to pick something easy here. I like that

1231
00:57:16,680 --> 00:57:20,160
Speaker 1: you think birds are real. I'm on the Philadelphia Eagles.

1232
00:57:19,760 --> 00:57:21,480
Speaker 2: Bandwagon with you. I have them to win the one

1233
00:57:21,520 --> 00:57:22,360
Speaker 2: seed in the NFC.

1234
00:57:22,600 --> 00:57:24,440
Speaker 3: Did you know that there's never been an all bird

1235
00:57:24,520 --> 00:57:25,479
Speaker 3: mascot Super Bowl?

1236
00:57:26,080 --> 00:57:28,120
Speaker 2: I did not know that. I do know that there's

1237
00:57:28,120 --> 00:57:29,960
Speaker 2: a team this year that can run the bird gauntlet.

1238
00:57:30,040 --> 00:57:33,320
Speaker 3: Right, Well, I'm going Eagles Ravens is to be the

1239
00:57:33,760 --> 00:57:36,240
Speaker 3: That is my sole analysis of that Super Bowl pick is.

1240
00:57:36,560 --> 00:57:38,280
Speaker 4: All birds, all birds.

1241
00:57:38,360 --> 00:57:44,160
Speaker 3: They're real deep to dive into birds.

1242
00:57:44,680 --> 00:57:46,680
Speaker 1: Well, guys, that is going to do it for us.

1243
00:57:46,720 --> 00:57:50,320
Speaker 1: Here it is time for some football. Best of luck.

1244
00:57:50,160 --> 00:57:53,000
Speaker 2: This weekend to everyone. We hope you cash your tickets.

1245
00:57:53,200 --> 00:57:55,280
Speaker 1: Will where can people find you and all the great

1246
00:57:55,280 --> 00:57:57,320
Speaker 1: work you're doing around the internet at.

1247
00:57:57,200 --> 00:57:59,280
Speaker 3: Will Brinston on Twitter and Instagram And then the Pick

1248
00:57:59,280 --> 00:58:02,200
Speaker 3: six Podcast, a daily NFL podcast. We are on YouTube,

1249
00:58:02,200 --> 00:58:05,080
Speaker 3: YouTube dot com, slash pick six every Day live at

1250
00:58:05,080 --> 00:58:06,960
Speaker 3: one pm for the now until the rest of time.

1251
00:58:07,160 --> 00:58:10,120
Speaker 3: We also do live recap shows after the Sunday show,

1252
00:58:10,160 --> 00:58:11,920
Speaker 3: which is like two am Eastern. Come join us for

1253
00:58:12,000 --> 00:58:15,280
Speaker 3: that loopy session and then we'll be live after the

1254
00:58:15,360 --> 00:58:19,000
Speaker 3: Rams RAMS actually after every primetime game. Hover to what

1255
00:58:19,000 --> 00:58:21,600
Speaker 3: I'm saying, and also you can find it on like Spotify,

1256
00:58:21,800 --> 00:58:25,240
Speaker 3: sit your Apple, Google Play, wherever else you get your podcasts.

1257
00:58:25,680 --> 00:58:27,760
Speaker 1: Highly encourage you guys to go check it out. They

1258
00:58:27,800 --> 00:58:30,600
Speaker 1: do absolutely awesome work. One of my favorite things to do.

1259
00:58:30,680 --> 00:58:33,080
Speaker 1: You know, just go out, get on tack myself on

1260
00:58:33,120 --> 00:58:35,360
Speaker 1: a little date and just listen to a podcast, always

1261
00:58:35,400 --> 00:58:38,400
Speaker 1: picking up the Pick six podcast as that option. You

1262
00:58:38,440 --> 00:58:40,640
Speaker 1: guys do fantastic work over there. And if you like

1263
00:58:40,680 --> 00:58:43,560
Speaker 1: the work that we're doing here, don't forget like subscribe

1264
00:58:43,560 --> 00:58:46,280
Speaker 1: and share all that good stuff. Thank you guys so

1265
00:58:46,400 --> 00:58:49,560
Speaker 1: much for listening to us today. Follow me, find me

1266
00:58:49,600 --> 00:58:51,680
Speaker 1: on Twitter, at TV at work. You can find Matt

1267
00:58:51,720 --> 00:58:54,960
Speaker 1: of course at matt fb Oracle, and don't forget to

1268
00:58:55,000 --> 00:58:57,000
Speaker 1: follow at Betting Pros as well.

1269
00:58:57,040 --> 00:59:08,640
Speaker 2: And guys, we will see you next episode. Pas