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Speaker 1: We're joined by Craig Singleton, Senior Fellow at the Foundation

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Speaker 1: for Defensive Democracies, to discuss China's foreign policy. And it's

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Speaker 1: a great time to have this discussion, Craig, with the

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Speaker 1: Party Congress coming up, We've been musing on this program

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Speaker 1: about a possible ideological shift coming from the Congress, uh

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Speaker 1: and it would be a tweak away from economic development

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Speaker 1: as the priority of the Party two, more of a

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Speaker 1: balance between development and security. So that has a lot

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Speaker 1: of implications to it with how China sees itself on

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Speaker 1: the on the global stage. So I'd like to ask you,

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Speaker 1: if indeed that's the case, how do you expect the

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Speaker 1: cooperation between China and Russia to be over this next period. No,

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Speaker 1: thanks for having me. I mean, I know this may

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Speaker 1: sound like something of a head scratcher, but I really,

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Speaker 1: despite all the media fanfare about the upcoming leadership gathering,

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Speaker 1: I don't think this Party Congress is all that remarkable.

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Speaker 1: I mean, we've known for months, some might say years,

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Speaker 1: that she would assume a third term. He has laid

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Speaker 1: out and excruciating detail already his division for a China

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Speaker 1: centric global order, one that reflects Beijing's interests and values,

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Speaker 1: And so I do think this Congress actually does more

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Speaker 1: represent a continuation, not a turning point in China's policy orientation.

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Speaker 1: What you see was she is, I think, I think

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Speaker 1: really what you get? Uh? You know. Nevertheless, even with

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Speaker 1: his position secure, um, there are no easy solutions to

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Speaker 1: either the war in Ukraine or china support for Russia,

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Speaker 1: let alone any of the deep structural and balances that

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Speaker 1: played China and its economy. And so far, at least,

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Speaker 1: you know, she has really failed to put forward a

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Speaker 1: compelling suite of policies or even a compelling narrative to

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Speaker 1: address these complicated issues. I think as for Russia specifically,

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Speaker 1: I suspect sooner rather than later, she is going to

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Speaker 1: be forced to maybe take some both depths to bolster

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Speaker 1: Putin's regime. How far she is really willing to go is?

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Speaker 1: I think frankly anyone's guess. Yeah. And that gets to

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Speaker 1: that point that I know you've sort of alluded to

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Speaker 1: as well about why Beijing perhaps is refused to cross

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Speaker 1: the sanctions red line here when it comes to the

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Speaker 1: war in Ukraine. So what happens if the war deteriorates?

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Speaker 1: What does that mean for the China US relationships China

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Speaker 1: Russia relationship absolutely. I mean, I think in the case

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Speaker 1: of the No Limits partnership, I suspect that we may

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Speaker 1: be thinking, perhaps incorrectly, of this partnership as a Western

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Speaker 1: style alliance. You know, China is not familiar with that

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Speaker 1: sort of alliance construct or the notion right that China

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Speaker 1: would put another country's interests or needs above its own.

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Speaker 1: That's very foreign to Beijing, and so I think the

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Speaker 1: threat of U S sanctions against China at a time

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Speaker 1: when China's economy is already really in a tail spin

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Speaker 1: that start is very acute, and leaders in Beijing understand

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Speaker 1: those risks, just as they did in the wrong context

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Speaker 1: back when China dialed down its supports they were on

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Speaker 1: so as to avoid being sanctioned by the Trump administration.

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Speaker 1: I think, whether China likes it or not, there's every

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Speaker 1: indication that China remains as reliant as ever on US

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Speaker 1: technology and capital to in its development. And so at

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Speaker 1: the end of the day, China could easily take steps

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Speaker 1: today to help Russia as it needs for additional wartime support,

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Speaker 1: but doing still would come at up pretty high cost,

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Speaker 1: and right now there's just no indication that Beijing is

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Speaker 1: willing to tie its own economic fate to that of Moscow.

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Speaker 1: As you noted in your Peace in Foreign Affairs, UM,

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Speaker 1: the Shanghai Cooperation Organization can speak to about forty of

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Speaker 1: the world's population. And if you think about it, it it

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Speaker 1: does fit with that narrative of of she looking more

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Speaker 1: at security because it gives China and Russia and countries

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Speaker 1: like Iran, you know, a sort of a bolstered position

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Speaker 1: to stand up to the West. And and so maybe

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Speaker 1: that is maybe that is the direction that they go.

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Speaker 1: And what do you think the consequences for the West

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Speaker 1: are if that grows? No, absolutely, I mean I think

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Speaker 1: when we talk about at least s CEO or perhaps

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Speaker 1: China and Russia's partnership, I often think while they are

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Speaker 1: brought together by a mutual loathing of the United States,

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Speaker 1: I'm not actually convinced that they have like a shared

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Speaker 1: vision for the world. I think that Putin really relishes

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Speaker 1: this role as a spoiler. He wants to blow up

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Speaker 1: the US led order, She, by his own emission, talks

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Speaker 1: about co opting it. I think some of that divergence

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Speaker 1: is actually what we're seeing now in Ukraine. UM and

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Speaker 1: what we would likely see as the growing power asymmetry

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Speaker 1: between Moscow and between Beijing sort of expands. I think

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Speaker 1: SEO is a manifestation and a representation more of She's

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Speaker 1: vision for this alternate global architecture that reflects China's values

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Speaker 1: in China's interests, and it is an attractive proposition. It's

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Speaker 1: non interference focused. Uh, everyone gets to show up. SEO

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Speaker 1: and other like entities aren't going to tell member states

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Speaker 1: or participants what to do. It's very different than what

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Speaker 1: we would probably associate with the U S led Order

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Speaker 1: or the United Nations or classic MO lateralism. And I

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Speaker 1: think that that is still very appealing when you have

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Speaker 1: big countries, including India, the world's largest democracy, feeling as

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Speaker 1: if the UN doesn't reflect its interests, doesn't representative of

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Speaker 1: its values and sort of peaks India for granted, I

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Speaker 1: mean it is quite compelling, and I think she will

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Speaker 1: build out this water architecture both in the security space

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Speaker 1: but also in the water multi lateral space as as

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Speaker 1: he pursues this next to their term in our In

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Speaker 1: our opinion piece by Mention pay Um, he writes that

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Speaker 1: that leaders like Mao Zedong and Dung Shaoping and now

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Speaker 1: Shi Jinping often get in trouble later in their in

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Speaker 1: their period, and he cites the example of Vadimar Putin's

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Speaker 1: invasion of Ukraine and mouse cultural revolution. Uh, do you

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Speaker 1: see any signs that she is moving towards excesses where

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Speaker 1: he gets, you know, sort of insecure and starts making

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Speaker 1: coming up with certain programs that just can't can't come

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Speaker 1: to fruition. I think we've we've seen that already come

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Speaker 1: to fruition in his second term, where um, big bold

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Speaker 1: initiatives have boomerang back on China's economic growth in ways

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Speaker 1: that most reform oriented or reform minded technocrats have been

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Speaker 1: just shocked by. They assumed at some point even zero

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Speaker 1: COVID probably been the greatest recent manifestation of that desire

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Speaker 1: for control at the expensive growth. There's no indication that

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Speaker 1: zero COVID is going away anytime soon. China or actould

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Speaker 1: say she appears in this moment willing to absorb the costs,

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Speaker 1: and they are severe that come from zero COVID policy

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Speaker 1: and other policies that we've sort of seen enacted. Uh,

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Speaker 1: mostly driven to ensure that the party state can drive

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Speaker 1: deeper into the lives of Chinese people, and deeper into um,

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Speaker 1: I would say China's economy in ways that we're already

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Speaker 1: seeing how devast aiding and how much they've undermined China's

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Speaker 1: growth prospects. It's global reputation. There's no reason to believe

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Speaker 1: that that's going to do anything but exacerbate as it

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Speaker 1: goes for China's she will double down. I suspect, Yeah,

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Speaker 1: all right, Craig, thanks very much. We really enjoy having

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Speaker 1: you on the program, or have enjoyed having you on

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Speaker 1: the program. Thanks very much for taking the time. Craig Singleton,

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Speaker 1: their senior Fellow the Foundation for Defense of Democracies