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Speaker 1: The volume. It's the Colin Coward Podcast presented by fan Duel.

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Speaker 1: It's NFL playoff time. No better place to get in

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Speaker 1: on the action than Fan Duel. FanDuel app is safe.

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Speaker 1: You get paid fast, A lot of ways to play

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Speaker 1: the spread, the money line, team totals, players, props, a

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Speaker 1: lot of stuff over unders, jump into the action, same game.

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Speaker 1: Parlays are my favorite. Just use the promo code Colin

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Speaker 1: and download the fan Duel app today. Fan Duel now

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Speaker 1: live in Ohio. Hi, everybody, Welcome in to the Friday

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Speaker 1: morning podcast. Sharper Square. I've got sides in the Niners, Eagles, Bengals, Chiefs.

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Speaker 1: So that's about ten minutes away. Chad Milman very exciting.

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Speaker 1: So I want to touch on something that I think

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Speaker 1: kind of runs counterintuitive to what a lot of people think.

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Speaker 1: Good people get fired all the time. Mark Cuban was fired,

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Speaker 1: Howard Stern was fired. It's there are cuts in staffing,

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Speaker 1: you know. I see stories where tech companies are laying

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Speaker 1: off ten thousand people. Those are good employees. When I

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Speaker 1: started the volume, one of the first breaks I got

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Speaker 1: was that COVID had decimated many of these large media

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Speaker 1: companies and some of my employees, many of them here

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Speaker 1: at the volume of our twenty seven twenty eight employees

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Speaker 1: worked at the ESPN to Zone, NBC Sports, CBS Sports,

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Speaker 1: very very talented people. Just companies had to make budgets.

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Speaker 1: There were some financial shortfalls expectations. You know how it

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Speaker 1: works at big companies. So we start with that, and

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Speaker 1: this is true in sports. Is that take coaching. The

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Speaker 1: Kansas City Chiefs fired Marv Levy. He went on to

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Speaker 1: get to four Super Bowls with the Bills. Many of

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Speaker 1: you may remember this. The Jags fired Tom Coughlin. He

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Speaker 1: went on to beat Belichick and Brady and out coach

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Speaker 1: them in two Super Bowls. So this happens. Tylu got

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Speaker 1: fired by the Calves. He got off to like an

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Speaker 1: Owen six start. Tyler's a top seven eight coach in

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Speaker 1: the NBA easily maybe top four or five. So when

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Speaker 1: Frank Reich was fired by the Colts, it was a

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Speaker 1: mistake by the organization. And I'll give you a little

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Speaker 1: background on that. So we would all admit that about

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Speaker 1: seventy seventy five percent of the NFL right now is

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Speaker 1: coach quarterback. That's good. You can have flaws in other places.

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Speaker 1: So Andrew Luck. With Frank Reich, he had him for

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Speaker 1: a year. How did Frank do with Andrew Andrew Luck

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Speaker 1: had missed the previous season due to an injury. His

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Speaker 1: first and last year with Frank Reich, Andrew Luck had

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Speaker 1: his career best in completion percentage, passer rating, thirty nine tds,

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Speaker 1: fifteen picks, comeback Player of the Year, and made the

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Speaker 1: Pro Bowl. He had his most efficient year Andrew Luck

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Speaker 1: did with Frank Reich. Philip Rivers from the previous year

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Speaker 1: with the Chargers went five and eleven with Frank Wreich.

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Speaker 1: When eleven and five, his passer rating went from eighty

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Speaker 1: eight to ninety seven. His interceptions, always an issue with Rivers,

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Speaker 1: went from twenty to eleven. Philip Rivers had his most

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Speaker 1: efficient year in the last several with Frank Reich. Let's

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Speaker 1: go to Carson Wentz. Now you roll your eyes at

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Speaker 1: Carson Wentz. But the one year that Frank Reich had

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Speaker 1: Carson Wentz, he went from three eight and one with

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Speaker 1: the Eagles as a starter to nine and eight. He

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Speaker 1: went from a sixteen touchdown fifteen pick ratio to twenty

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Speaker 1: sevents and seven picks. His passer rating jumped from seventy

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Speaker 1: two to ninety four point six, so three different quarterbacks.

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Speaker 1: Andrew Luck, Philip Rivers, and Carson Wentz had significant upgrades. Inefficiency,

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Speaker 1: completion percentage and turnovers dropped, and the Colts fired him.

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Speaker 1: The Jags fired Tom Coughlin, the Cowboys moved off Jimmy Johnson,

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Speaker 1: the Brown Slash Ravens moved off Bill Belichick. Marv Levy

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Speaker 1: got bounced by the Chiefs. Frank Reich is a really

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Speaker 1: good coach. Carolina got a good one. They have an

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Speaker 1: excellent defense, specifically in the front seven, with talented young corners.

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Speaker 1: In the back end. DJ Moore's a nice receiver. They

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Speaker 1: got to rebuild the old line a little not terrible,

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Speaker 1: get themselves a quarterback. I think Carolina stole the Indianapolis

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Speaker 1: Colts mistake. And this all goes back to the meddling

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Speaker 1: of Jim Rsey. If I said to you meddling owners

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Speaker 1: in the NFL the last decade, four jump out to

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Speaker 1: me the old Al Davis, Dan Snyder, Jerry Jones, and

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Speaker 1: recently in the last year, Jim Ersay. So this week,

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Speaker 1: Charles Barkley went on the TNT Show during an NBA

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Speaker 1: game and railed on the players, for star players, for

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Speaker 1: missing starts, and it's called load management. It has become

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Speaker 1: the biggest issue that Adam Silver, the NBA Commission faces.

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Speaker 1: Star players sitting out won't play back to backs. Now,

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Speaker 1: some in the media view that as two pro owner

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Speaker 1: and two anti player. And I'll give you an example.

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Speaker 1: One of my favorite baseball players growing up was George Brett.

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Speaker 1: And I remember looking at George Brett's stats one time,

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Speaker 1: years and years ago, and Brett missed like thirty games

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Speaker 1: a year, and I thought, oh wow. But remember George

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Speaker 1: Brett played on AstroTurf in the summer in Kansas City.

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Speaker 1: That f and field was one hundred and thirty degrees.

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Speaker 1: Players took more time off the resources, nutrition training methods

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Speaker 1: playing on AstroTurf. When players were missing games in the seventies, eighties, nineties,

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Speaker 1: there was a sense they were doing it to rehab

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Speaker 1: their body. I mean, Steve Garvey told me years ago

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Speaker 1: that when he played on AstroTurf, his cleats occasionally stuck

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Speaker 1: to the field. He had to constantly move his feet.

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Speaker 1: So when a baseball player now on grass fields, you know,

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Speaker 1: is missing thirty games, it does feel different. Nutritional standards

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Speaker 1: training methods, resources, teams, private jets. In fact, you're seeing

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Speaker 1: this in the NFL, that home field advantage in the

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Speaker 1: NFL is no longer three and a half points. And

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Speaker 1: the reason being Washington Post detailed this in an article

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Speaker 1: is that essentially, with team planes, players have more space,

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Speaker 1: they set up training centers at the hotel within an

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Speaker 1: hour of landing. Is that the truth is road teams

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Speaker 1: don't have This isn't a disservice to the eighties, nineties

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Speaker 1: and early two thousands. It's a reality of the advancements

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Speaker 1: of the league. You can go on the road and

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Speaker 1: you get equal treatment to at home. Fewer distractions, better planes,

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Speaker 1: more rest, better hydration, more trainers, better trainers. Home field

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Speaker 1: advantage in the NFL has less impact. So where I

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Speaker 1: side with Barkley is that when an older NBA player

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Speaker 1: a Wilt, they used to fly commercial. You'd get on

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Speaker 1: a plane out of Seattle six in the morning, you

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Speaker 1: could be sitting with the Lakers. They flew commercial. And

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Speaker 1: if a guy missed fifteen games in the seventies, eighties, nineties,

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Speaker 1: a lot of it was because they just didn't have

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Speaker 1: the resources to take care of their body. That's why

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Speaker 1: you see so many older NBA players Phil Jackson crouched over,

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Speaker 1: bent over. They're beat up physically, they don't age particularly well.

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Speaker 1: Their backs don't, their shoulders don't. So it does feel

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Speaker 1: different today when Yokich can't play a back to back.

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Speaker 1: It's not just the salary. Athletes are treated better le physically,

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Speaker 1: it's an easier life. It's not just resentment toward the salary.

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Speaker 1: I do think load management is a huge problem in

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Speaker 1: the NBA. I would love for the league to cut

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Speaker 1: out back to backs because I grew up in a

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Speaker 1: small town and when I was a kid, if I

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Speaker 1: went to a game of Seattle Sonics game and downtown

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Speaker 1: Freddie Brown and Gus Williams and DJ or Jack Segman

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Speaker 1: didn't play, was a bummer. I mean, I went specifically

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Speaker 1: to the Kingdom to watch Larry Bird against my Sonics.

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Speaker 1: And so I think the criticism by Barkley is reasonable.

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Speaker 1: Some will say, well, you know, Charles at the end

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Speaker 1: of his career was missing. You know, he was missing

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Speaker 1: like twenty twenty five games. Even at the end of

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Speaker 1: Barkley's career, which is fairly recent, bodies were treated differently.

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Speaker 1: You didn't have the staff size or the expertise on

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Speaker 1: nutrition training, and you couldn't implement it as quickly or

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Speaker 1: as often as a small business owner or hiring manager.

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Speaker 1: Terms and conditions apply LinkedIn dot com slash column. All

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Speaker 1: Right Chad Millman CCO Action Network. All odds provided by

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Speaker 1: a FanDuel. Well after hitting fifty five percent this year,

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Speaker 1: the playoffs arrive and I don't have a feel for

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Speaker 1: any playoff game. I guess I got the Jags to

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Speaker 1: late cover, which is what we predicted. But let's start

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Speaker 1: forty nine ers at Eagles. All throw out kind of

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Speaker 1: the two things that jump out to me. Greg ko Sell,

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Speaker 1: who's my favorite guest maybe ever on the show, says,

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Speaker 1: the last two starts are starting to show some tendencies

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Speaker 1: with Brock pretty they're now on film. He's scrambling backwards.

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Speaker 1: He now goes consistently to his left. He has been

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Speaker 1: incapable of delivering on some really nice schemed and scripted plays.

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Speaker 1: There are now we are seeing limitations, and the Eagles

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Speaker 1: are seeing them. Philadelphia has got seventeen players who are

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Speaker 1: either Pro Bowl starters or alternatives at home, significantly more

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Speaker 1: dynamic quarterback. You know, rookies in this spot have been

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Speaker 1: disastrous McCaffrey, Elijah Mitchell missing practice. I'd probably swallow the

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Speaker 1: points and take Philadelphia sharper square. I would say, generally sharp.

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Speaker 1: The challenge with the playoffs, as you just noted, is

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Speaker 1: someone's going to find a reason to like something. And

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Speaker 1: so this line opened it around pick on Sunday night.

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Speaker 1: Literally that lasted less than five minutes got up to

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Speaker 1: one and a half two. I bet Eagles minus two

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Speaker 1: Sunday night. It's landed at two and a half. Most wise,

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Speaker 1: guys have this power rated at three, so you're still

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Speaker 1: getting a half point of value. What's troubling if you're

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Speaker 1: an Eagles backer is you've seen the money come in

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Speaker 1: on the Eagles and it really hasn't hit the three,

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Speaker 1: which means that professional money continues to come in on

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Speaker 1: the Niners enough that the books are wary of getting

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Speaker 1: to the three because they'll just get pounded with money

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Speaker 1: on the Niners. Schematically, on the field. Couldn't agree with

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Speaker 1: you more personally, I think you're starting to see as

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Speaker 1: Cosell pointed out, and I agree. He's one of my

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Speaker 1: favorite guests on your show. He has pointed out that

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Speaker 1: Brock Purdy is starting to show a little bit of

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Speaker 1: why he might not be a Hall of Famer yet.

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Speaker 1: And I think that you're taking a rookie playing his

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Speaker 1: third game on the road. Yeah, in the NFC title game,

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Speaker 1: and it's not Vegas that he's going to where one

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Speaker 1: of his games were. It's not Seattle against Geno Smith

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Speaker 1: in a defense that was really starting to struggle it's

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Speaker 1: Philadelphia like it's Philadelphia with a historically great pass rush

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Speaker 1: and historically great offensive line that is getting players downfield,

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Speaker 1: and they have tremendous amount of yards before contact numbers.

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Speaker 1: So how do you not take the Eagles here? It

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Speaker 1: feels like exactly the right side. I love the Eagles

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Speaker 1: in this spot. Maybe I've talked myself into it. I've

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Speaker 1: heard a lot of people say they like the Niners,

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Speaker 1: but the majority of wise guys are agreeing with you. Well,

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Speaker 1: here's something else to remember. That Cowboy team went into

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Speaker 1: the second half without Tony Pollard, a kicker who was

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Speaker 1: in his head, and Dallas was on the road. And

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Speaker 1: let's be honest, Michael Gallop, it's I would submit to you,

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Speaker 1: he's not a two, he's a three. So, Mike McCarthy,

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Speaker 1: I think it's done mostly a very good job. But

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Speaker 1: they didn't dust the Cowboys off, and Zeke at this

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Speaker 1: point is a short yardage back. They had one home

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Speaker 1: run hitter on offense, and the Niners knew it. Ceedee Lamb.

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Speaker 1: It was a very very limited offense they were facing. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: it's a different game with Tony Pollard completely because they

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Speaker 1: were playing it close in that game and Dak Prescott

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Speaker 1: was terrible. It was really bad. So now you're now

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Speaker 1: you're on the road A J. Brown Smith. There's a

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Speaker 1: conveyor belt of quality tight ends for Philadelphia Sanders Jalen Hurts.

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Speaker 1: It's very likely you will play now from behind. Also,

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Speaker 1: if you look at Philadelphia, now this is my concern

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Speaker 1: with Philadelphia. Let me throw this at you. Okay, So

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Speaker 1: Kyle Shanahan is now seven and oh with his third

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Speaker 1: string quarterback. That's pretty impressive. Oh yeah, Philadelphia's story to

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Speaker 1: this point is GM Howie Roseman. Okay, Sereanni doesn't get

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Speaker 1: any credit for the roster build and nor does he

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Speaker 1: get a ton of credit for this fact when Jalen

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Speaker 1: Hurts was out and very capable backup Gardner Minshew more

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Speaker 1: than capable upper third of backups and win games. So

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Speaker 1: the roster that's Roseman, Jalen Hurts. When he's gone, that's

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Speaker 1: when coaching really matters. You don't get the juice at

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Speaker 1: Jalen right, like ky Oh Shanahan winning with brock Purty.

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Speaker 1: That's not a Brock Purty story as much as it

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Speaker 1: is a roster compilation and a Kyle Shanahan story. So

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Speaker 1: you take out Jalen Hurts. With this roster of seventeen

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Speaker 1: pro bowler alternates, they don't went with Gardner Minshew a

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Speaker 1: capable backup. So what I'm saying is Kyle Shanahan and

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Speaker 1: Nick Seriani. Let's not elevate Nick, who got crushed in

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Speaker 1: the playoffs last year and beat it completely outmanned Giants team.

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Speaker 1: I said today on the show, I like Nick. I

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Speaker 1: was wrong on Nick, But if the second half of

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Speaker 1: this game Shanahan was playing Chester checkers, you wouldn't be shocked, right, right.

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Speaker 1: So that's where I'm a little like I saw him

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Speaker 1: without Jalen. It wasn't like he was a chess master, right.

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Speaker 1: It's so interesting you look at it from that point

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Speaker 1: of view. A couple of things. I loved the video

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Speaker 1: the other day of Nick Sirianni on the sideline yelling

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Speaker 1: at I don't know who when he was going for

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Speaker 1: two or lining up to go for two after one

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Speaker 1: of the touchdowns, yelling I know what I'm fucking doing.

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Speaker 1: But I worry, and I'm you know, being a little silly,

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Speaker 1: but I do worry when there's a coach who feels

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Speaker 1: like he needs to be yelling that to someone on

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Speaker 1: his sideline, and that is getting that sort of uptight

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Speaker 1: about being challenged, right, Yeah, I don't get the sense

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Speaker 1: that Sean McVay a responds that way and b has

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Speaker 1: someone saying to him, what are you doing? Or Bill

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Speaker 1: Belichick has someone was so like, I know, it's like

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Speaker 1: it's a funny little clip. But I did look at

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Speaker 1: that and be like that was weird, Like I just

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Speaker 1: that was a I don't know any leaders who do that, right,

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Speaker 1: And so I thought that was interesting. One. You will

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Speaker 1: get no argument for me that Kyle Shanahan is amongst

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Speaker 1: the two three best coaches in the NFL. I love

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Speaker 1: the guy. I think that they are an automatic Super

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Speaker 1: Bowl contender no matter what. And I think he has

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Speaker 1: more fun scheming for second and third stringers on his

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Speaker 1: team probably than any coach in the NFL. Like he

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Speaker 1: is so creative and so good at it. And we've

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Speaker 1: seen it year after year. Name a team that consistently

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Speaker 1: loses their quarterback, they're starting left tackle, their best running back,

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Speaker 1: their best receiver, their entire defense, and consistently every single

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Speaker 1: year does as well as he does, as if it's

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Speaker 1: like not even missing a beat. Right, So I think

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Speaker 1: the guy is brilliant and I think he love him

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Speaker 1: as a coach. Don't disagree with you at all on this,

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Speaker 1: and I think some of what you're saying leads me

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Speaker 1: to the next thing I would say about this game,

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Speaker 1: which is a little bit against the market. But the over,

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Speaker 1: and the reason I like the over is because we've

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Speaker 1: started to see some cracks in the forty nine ers

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Speaker 1: back line pass defense. And I do think that Jalen

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Speaker 1: hurts a J. Brown, DeVante Smith, Goddard. They are a

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Speaker 1: serious quartet of weapons that can take advantage of some

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Speaker 1: passing defense deficiencies. And that does not need great coaching.

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Speaker 1: That needs good coordinating and it needs good talent. And

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Speaker 1: on the flip side, if there's anybody who can figure

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Speaker 1: out how to scheme against a really good pass rush,

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Speaker 1: it's Kyle Shanahan. So I do think there are opportunities

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Speaker 1: for this game to play against type. So I did

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Speaker 1: feel Philadelphia was the side, and I have all week

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Speaker 1: Bengals Chiefs. We have the variable. So I've talked about

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Speaker 1: it today on the show. I've got video of Mahomes.

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Speaker 1: He's a full practice participant. There are three levels to

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Speaker 1: high ankle sprains. Grade one which is mild. He also

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Speaker 1: played very well hundred passer raiding in the game after

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Speaker 1: the sprain, so I'm not overly concerned. Also, Will Blackman

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Speaker 1: pointed out in the show today, sometimes when Malholmes gets

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Speaker 1: in trouble, he's a little squirrely when he extends plays.

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Speaker 1: When you force him to sit in the pocket, it's

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Speaker 1: pretty good, and so I don't worry about that. Here's though,

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Speaker 1: why I like Cincinnati plus a point, and here's why.

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Speaker 1: Over the last twenty games in the NFL, there's an

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Speaker 1: argument to be made Cincinnati's the best second half defense

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Speaker 1: in the league, even better than San Francisco. They make

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Speaker 1: adjustments like nobody else the other and by the way,

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Speaker 1: against Kansas City as well. They have trailed Kansas City

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Speaker 1: in their last three beatings of the Chiefs, but have

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Speaker 1: dominated late fourth or overtime. I believe Cincinnati has become

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Speaker 1: something that doesn't get a lot of love, but it

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Speaker 1: was what the Patriots with Belichick and Brady did. They

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Speaker 1: were the best situational football team for about twenty years.

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Speaker 1: Cincinnati is remarkably good situationally, like even better than Kansas City.

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Speaker 1: A lot of its burrows accuracy, so during the off season.

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Speaker 1: Remember Burrows first year and a half once against the

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Speaker 1: Bears he could be turnover prone. So in the off

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Speaker 1: season Cincinnati said, you know what, We're going to peel

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Speaker 1: back some of the deeper routes and do more intermediate closer. Now,

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Speaker 1: the Bengals give you an upside with no turnovers. This

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Speaker 1: is what they did to Buffalo. So you have the

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Speaker 1: most accurate passer completion percentage in league history. Borrow a

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Speaker 1: team that's no longer giving you turnovers. That was Mahome's

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Speaker 1: secret sauce early the best adjusting defense in the league

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Speaker 1: with absolutely no pressure. These are the Chiefs. This is Mahomes,

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Speaker 1: this is read. I think I like Cincinnati. Sharper square, dude.

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Speaker 1: This game is a roller coaster, and you're not going

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Speaker 1: to get a consensus. You're going to be sharp. You're

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Speaker 1: gonna be with a bunch of sharps, and there's also

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Speaker 1: going to be sharps who like Kansas City. So let

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Speaker 1: me give you the reasons why I think Kansas City

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Speaker 1: at minus one is the play. And this isn't as

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Speaker 1: much about betting and number shopping and as we often

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Speaker 1: talk about getting the best of the number, as it

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Speaker 1: is about the side. This game opened Cincinnati plus three

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Speaker 1: on Sunday night. I bet at Cincinnati plus three. Immediately

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Speaker 1: it got bet down to pick Cincinnati plus one. I

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Speaker 1: mean Cincinnati minus one, case plus one. By Tuesday afternoon

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Speaker 1: it's Kansas City plus two and a half. I bet

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Speaker 1: the Kansas City plus two and a half. By last night,

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Speaker 1: it was back to Kansas City plus one this morning.

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Speaker 1: We're recording this on Thursday afternoon. Kansas City is a

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Speaker 1: one point favorite because of what we saw with my homes.

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Speaker 1: You will get wise guys telling you I am back

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Speaker 1: in Joe Burrow one hundred percent, and then you will

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Speaker 1: get wise guys telling you I'm playing my model. My

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Speaker 1: model has Kansas City as a slight favorite to pick

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Speaker 1: in this game, right, So I'm sorry. Kansas City is

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Speaker 1: a slight favorite to minus two in this game. So

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Speaker 1: you're going to get both sides of it. It's really

348
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Speaker 1: going to come down to how do you feel what's

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Speaker 1: going to make you the least uncomfortable in this game.

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Speaker 1: I wish I could give you a consensus. I can't.

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Speaker 1: I can't in any good conscious like now. We talked

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Speaker 1: about this in the favorites today. We did sharp calls

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Speaker 1: where the wise guys will call us over the forty

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Speaker 1: eight hours from Tuesday to Thursday between our two podcasts

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Speaker 1: and tell us what they think of what we're saying.

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Speaker 1: And a lot of the wise guys were just like,

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Speaker 1: I won't bet against Joe Burrow. The guy's nineteen and

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Speaker 1: one against the spread as less than a seven point underdog.

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Speaker 1: So the majority of the money in here came in

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Speaker 1: on the Bengals because of where the number was. And

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Speaker 1: that's really what the wise guys did after that, to

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Speaker 1: anybody's guess. The NFL Conference Championships this Sunday. You can

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Speaker 1: I'll tell you I did. I did say this. Four

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Speaker 1: coaches left all offensive, final eight coaches seven offensive. But

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Speaker 1: I do think something is important here is that all

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Speaker 1: four offenses, to me, have an identity. I still think

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Speaker 1: one of my biggest takeaways of this playoff Brandon Staley

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Speaker 1: and Sean McDermott feel like those offenses just call plays

399
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Speaker 1: and that we are having a revolution in this sport.

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Speaker 1: And I've been talking about this ad nauseum for two

401
00:27:59,200 --> 00:28:05,360
Speaker 1: years is that even with a third string quarterback, I

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Speaker 1: absolutely believe the forty nine ers have an offensive identity physicality,

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Speaker 1: finding an extra blocker, using multiple weapons at multiple levels,

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00:28:16,760 --> 00:28:21,680
Speaker 1: always using motion. With a third string quarterback, I felt

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Speaker 1: Josh Allen was deep balls up the sideline in a snowstorm.

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Speaker 1: I had somebody I had a scouting buddy in this

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Speaker 1: league say, in snowstorms, the hardest thing to catch is

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Speaker 1: a deep ball up a sideline. A it's hard to

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Speaker 1: see what's in what's not be You're asking players to

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Speaker 1: look up into the snow. Shorter routes much easier. I'm

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Speaker 1: staring at the quarterback. Don't ask receivers to look up

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Speaker 1: in snow. He said that sounds ridiculous. Tom Brady says

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Speaker 1: snow games are great as long as there's no wind.

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Speaker 1: He goes, because edge rushers a can't get their eat,

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00:29:00,800 --> 00:29:04,320
Speaker 1: and he goes, linebackers get to their positions quicker because

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00:29:04,360 --> 00:29:06,760
Speaker 1: they're sliding over the field, so they give away what

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Speaker 1: they're doing with twelve seconds left before the snaff so

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Speaker 1: little tiny think and NS scout says, you never want

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Speaker 1: the sideline deep route snow flakes flying down. He goes,

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Speaker 1: it's just hard for these guys. Cincinnati had an identity, quick,

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Speaker 1: precise eight yards in, move the clock, take the first downs,

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Speaker 1: and I thought Buffalo looked absolutely disoriented. And so I

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Speaker 1: guess my takeaway is you start ask yourself about your

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Speaker 1: football team, even if it's flawed. In twenty twenty three,

425
00:29:43,200 --> 00:29:46,920
Speaker 1: do you sense that you have an offensive identity regardless

426
00:29:46,920 --> 00:29:50,800
Speaker 1: if you have a great quarterback? It really matters, because

427
00:29:50,800 --> 00:29:53,200
Speaker 1: I could argue the Chargers and the Bills lost to

428
00:29:53,280 --> 00:29:59,280
Speaker 1: teams where they had better personnel. I feel like, I'll

429
00:29:59,320 --> 00:30:03,160
Speaker 1: take it one step totally agree with your take, except

430
00:30:03,200 --> 00:30:07,200
Speaker 1: I kind of don't. And I think that the Bills

431
00:30:07,240 --> 00:30:10,040
Speaker 1: do have an identity. I think they have the identity

432
00:30:10,080 --> 00:30:13,120
Speaker 1: of their quarterback, and I think they have the identity

433
00:30:13,160 --> 00:30:24,000
Speaker 1: of being immensely talented, incredibly high strung, and a rollercoaster

434
00:30:24,280 --> 00:30:27,080
Speaker 1: of emotions when things are going well. For Josh Allen,

435
00:30:27,640 --> 00:30:31,600
Speaker 1: he shows it. When things are not going well, He's

436
00:30:31,640 --> 00:30:35,600
Speaker 1: showing it right, pounding the turf, throwing tantrums, looking down

437
00:30:37,360 --> 00:30:44,160
Speaker 1: the Bengals, the ooze confidence. And it's not just Joe Burrow, right,

438
00:30:44,240 --> 00:30:48,560
Speaker 1: it's Jamar Chase, It's Joe Mixon. And they play with

439
00:30:48,640 --> 00:30:52,880
Speaker 1: a physicality that is different than other teams. Jamar Chase

440
00:30:52,920 --> 00:30:54,920
Speaker 1: is not the biggest guy in the world, but he

441
00:30:55,000 --> 00:30:57,880
Speaker 1: runs through tacklers when he gets a screen pass. Right,

442
00:30:58,240 --> 00:31:02,440
Speaker 1: Joe Mixon like he is just bullying people. Joe Burrow

443
00:31:02,720 --> 00:31:06,920
Speaker 1: is unflappable, and so I think there's a huge discrepancy

444
00:31:06,960 --> 00:31:08,880
Speaker 1: in personality, and teams take on the person out of

445
00:31:08,920 --> 00:31:14,040
Speaker 1: their quarterback, and I think we saw that in complete

446
00:31:14,080 --> 00:31:18,479
Speaker 1: relief in that Bill's Bengals game. So I do think

447
00:31:18,480 --> 00:31:20,760
Speaker 1: there's personalities. I just I think that the Bills don't

448
00:31:20,760 --> 00:31:23,880
Speaker 1: have a good personality, and so I think I think

449
00:31:23,920 --> 00:31:28,080
Speaker 1: that's their problem right now. Yeah, they look they came

450
00:31:28,120 --> 00:31:30,560
Speaker 1: off as a little rigid as well. You know McDermott

451
00:31:30,600 --> 00:31:33,400
Speaker 1: comes from that, you know, a little bit of that

452
00:31:33,440 --> 00:31:37,280
Speaker 1: old school play defense, punt field position. I just think

453
00:31:37,320 --> 00:31:39,880
Speaker 1: it's really hard. I was talking to Kyle van Noy

454
00:31:40,000 --> 00:31:43,080
Speaker 1: the other day for a Patriot player now he's with

455
00:31:43,160 --> 00:31:45,680
Speaker 1: the Chargers free agent, and he said, he goes, when

456
00:31:45,680 --> 00:31:48,240
Speaker 1: I came into this league, guys didn't want to go

457
00:31:48,240 --> 00:31:50,640
Speaker 1: over the middle. He goes, everybody wants to go over

458
00:31:50,720 --> 00:31:53,440
Speaker 1: the middle now, and it's like he goes as a

459
00:31:53,560 --> 00:31:56,320
Speaker 1: as a linebacker. It's just the tight ends are more

460
00:31:56,360 --> 00:32:01,080
Speaker 1: athletic and faster. They don't fear anybody, the sivers backs.

461
00:32:01,520 --> 00:32:03,800
Speaker 1: He said, the game has changed in ten years. The

462
00:32:03,800 --> 00:32:07,440
Speaker 1: middle of the field is just a paradise for offensive players.

463
00:32:07,560 --> 00:32:09,120
Speaker 1: You and I grew up there was a term called

464
00:32:09,160 --> 00:32:14,320
Speaker 1: alligator arms, and if you had one receiver Michael Urban

465
00:32:14,400 --> 00:32:16,960
Speaker 1: willing to go over the middle, that was it. I

466
00:32:16,960 --> 00:32:20,760
Speaker 1: can remember Philadelphia having a receiver I liked out of college.

467
00:32:20,760 --> 00:32:23,680
Speaker 1: He didn't pan out Freddie Mitchell and I can remember

468
00:32:23,960 --> 00:32:27,840
Speaker 1: a game specifically, and he dropped a pass and the

469
00:32:27,840 --> 00:32:31,480
Speaker 1: announcer at the time, whoever it was, talked about, he's

470
00:32:31,520 --> 00:32:33,520
Speaker 1: not a guy that's comfortable going over the middle and

471
00:32:33,560 --> 00:32:36,400
Speaker 1: I and it just stuck in my head. That was

472
00:32:36,480 --> 00:32:39,720
Speaker 1: a lot of players, a lot The way to score

473
00:32:39,800 --> 00:32:42,440
Speaker 1: quickly in the NFL was a deep ball up the sideline.

474
00:32:43,000 --> 00:32:45,320
Speaker 1: That's how you did it. That's how the seventies Steelers

475
00:32:45,320 --> 00:32:47,480
Speaker 1: did at the Swan over the top. You didn't have

476
00:32:47,560 --> 00:32:50,840
Speaker 1: these seam routes, guys going through. It didn't exist. Just

477
00:32:50,960 --> 00:32:54,480
Speaker 1: not what you did. And so I think these offensive

478
00:32:54,480 --> 00:33:00,160
Speaker 1: coaches they're playing chess. They can completely manipulate defenses. When

479
00:33:00,240 --> 00:33:04,480
Speaker 1: Nick Saban years ago in a New York Times piece acknowledge, yeah,

480
00:33:04,520 --> 00:33:07,200
Speaker 1: I can't. I can't really stop up if a quarterback

481
00:33:07,240 --> 00:33:09,560
Speaker 1: can move and not a lot I can do. The

482
00:33:09,640 --> 00:33:12,080
Speaker 1: rules have changed. There's just limitations on what I can

483
00:33:12,080 --> 00:33:14,440
Speaker 1: do with the receivers, quarterbacks the middle of the field.

484
00:33:14,720 --> 00:33:16,800
Speaker 1: When Saban's telling you that at the college level, when

485
00:33:16,800 --> 00:33:21,080
Speaker 1: Tennessee's dropping forty five or fifty on Saban, at the

486
00:33:21,160 --> 00:33:25,320
Speaker 1: college level where he has an athletic advantage, a personnel advantage,

487
00:33:25,560 --> 00:33:29,400
Speaker 1: and I felt the margins are small. So I think

488
00:33:29,400 --> 00:33:31,680
Speaker 1: coaching matters more in the NFL than it ever has.

489
00:33:32,320 --> 00:33:35,200
Speaker 1: I couldn't agree more. It's interesting you say that about

490
00:33:35,200 --> 00:33:39,520
Speaker 1: Freddie Mitchell because I agree with you, and he was

491
00:33:39,560 --> 00:33:41,440
Speaker 1: a high draft pick, I think out of UCLA at

492
00:33:41,440 --> 00:33:43,719
Speaker 1: the UCLA I liked him a lot out of college,

493
00:33:43,840 --> 00:33:47,400
Speaker 1: and he was supposed to be sort of the second

494
00:33:47,400 --> 00:33:52,560
Speaker 1: coming of someone who is a great downfield I lamorous receiver,

495
00:33:53,880 --> 00:33:56,400
Speaker 1: couldn't go over the middle, kind of never really developed.

496
00:33:56,560 --> 00:34:00,240
Speaker 1: But I'm pretty sure it was Freddie Mitchell who made

497
00:34:00,240 --> 00:34:03,440
Speaker 1: that miraculous catch down the middle on like a third

498
00:34:03,440 --> 00:34:05,520
Speaker 1: and twenty seven or a fourth and twenty seven from

499
00:34:05,520 --> 00:34:08,680
Speaker 1: Donovant Nab during their run. I think it was what

500
00:34:08,840 --> 00:34:13,280
Speaker 1: got them to the super Bowl, and like late nineties,

501
00:34:13,360 --> 00:34:15,080
Speaker 1: early two thousands, I got to look it up. I'm

502
00:34:15,080 --> 00:34:19,120
Speaker 1: almost positive it was, which is just ironic. Now you

503
00:34:19,200 --> 00:34:22,719
Speaker 1: got guys like Deebo Samuel right, who are they live

504
00:34:22,760 --> 00:34:25,560
Speaker 1: in the middle, Like as big as a linebacker. It's

505
00:34:25,719 --> 00:34:28,879
Speaker 1: scarier for the linebacker the safety to hit them than

506
00:34:28,920 --> 00:34:31,520
Speaker 1: it is for them to go over the middle because

507
00:34:31,520 --> 00:34:34,759
Speaker 1: they're bigger and stronger and It's like when these linebackers

508
00:34:34,760 --> 00:34:36,960
Speaker 1: and these safeties go into these guys and they're the

509
00:34:37,000 --> 00:34:39,719
Speaker 1: ones who just fall down right and like they and

510
00:34:40,160 --> 00:34:43,640
Speaker 1: Deebo will gain three or four more yards. It's amazing

511
00:34:43,680 --> 00:34:48,160
Speaker 1: to see. Yeah, a box safety now like a Jamal

512
00:34:48,200 --> 00:34:53,839
Speaker 1: Adams can't cover. There's there's arguments that you can't pay

513
00:34:53,880 --> 00:34:57,320
Speaker 1: safeties and when you're Jamal Adams more of a hybrid

514
00:34:57,400 --> 00:35:02,400
Speaker 1: safety linebacker, what's the point. And he's a unbelievably gifted player.

515
00:35:02,400 --> 00:35:05,400
Speaker 1: But I can remember growing up with Kenny Easley and

516
00:35:05,640 --> 00:35:08,880
Speaker 1: you know, Troy Polamalu who were thumpers and that was

517
00:35:08,920 --> 00:35:12,040
Speaker 1: celebrated and it was necessary. That guy can't cover in space.

518
00:35:12,080 --> 00:35:14,800
Speaker 1: Now that guy can't. You gotta be ed Read or

519
00:35:14,840 --> 00:35:18,520
Speaker 1: Earl Thomas. You gotta go sideline to sideline. The thumper

520
00:35:18,880 --> 00:35:22,080
Speaker 1: is a relic that because the middle of the field

521
00:35:22,120 --> 00:35:24,359
Speaker 1: now everybody was speed wants to go down the middle

522
00:35:24,360 --> 00:35:27,040
Speaker 1: of the field. You can't the thumper if I have

523
00:35:27,120 --> 00:35:29,680
Speaker 1: you know, Seattle gave up two firsts and a tight

524
00:35:29,800 --> 00:35:33,120
Speaker 1: end and a third. I think for Jamal Adams in retrospect,

525
00:35:33,480 --> 00:35:35,640
Speaker 1: they got taken to the cleaners. Now they took Denver

526
00:35:35,680 --> 00:35:39,319
Speaker 1: to the cleaners on Russell, but that in retrospect they

527
00:35:39,360 --> 00:35:44,400
Speaker 1: gave up way too much for a box safety. Enny Easley,

528
00:35:45,400 --> 00:35:51,239
Speaker 1: Steve Steve at Water kidding me, Chuckel, Oh my god,

529
00:35:51,280 --> 00:35:53,440
Speaker 1: are like where I grew up in Chicago And it

530
00:35:53,480 --> 00:35:57,480
Speaker 1: was Doug Plank. They literally named the greatest defense in

531
00:35:57,680 --> 00:36:02,600
Speaker 1: NFL history after a hard hitting safety, right the forty six.

532
00:36:02,800 --> 00:36:06,000
Speaker 1: The greatest defense in NFL history, most dominant defense in

533
00:36:06,080 --> 00:36:09,239
Speaker 1: NFL history, Doug Plank was number forty six. You said

534
00:36:09,239 --> 00:36:13,880
Speaker 1: something really interesting before the Bengals defense and their second

535
00:36:13,880 --> 00:36:16,680
Speaker 1: half adjustments. This is not talked about enough, but I

536
00:36:16,680 --> 00:36:21,400
Speaker 1: can tell you within the betting community of professional betters,

537
00:36:22,200 --> 00:36:24,480
Speaker 1: you know, the Bengals have been on this incredible against

538
00:36:24,480 --> 00:36:28,480
Speaker 1: the spread streak and for a lot of betters when

539
00:36:28,480 --> 00:36:31,040
Speaker 1: they really started to pile on the Bengals and just

540
00:36:31,080 --> 00:36:36,040
Speaker 1: decided it's Bengals or bust. DJ Reader coming off the

541
00:36:36,080 --> 00:36:40,000
Speaker 1: injured list second half of the year, this team became

542
00:36:40,040 --> 00:36:42,399
Speaker 1: a much more dominant team. And you see it every week.

543
00:36:42,400 --> 00:36:44,879
Speaker 1: He's pushing the pocket, he's knocking down Valls, he's making

544
00:36:44,920 --> 00:36:48,080
Speaker 1: the big stop on third and short against the opposing

545
00:36:48,160 --> 00:36:53,880
Speaker 1: running back. This defense sixth overall in the NFL in yards,

546
00:36:55,040 --> 00:37:00,880
Speaker 1: in points per play allowed, fifth in red zone touchdown

547
00:37:01,360 --> 00:37:06,560
Speaker 1: percentage allowed. So if you're thinking about I don't really

548
00:37:06,560 --> 00:37:09,279
Speaker 1: know which thought I want to go here, professionals have

549
00:37:09,360 --> 00:37:12,240
Speaker 1: bet the under and it's been fascinating. This game opened

550
00:37:12,239 --> 00:37:14,399
Speaker 1: about fifty one fifty one and a half. I bet

551
00:37:14,400 --> 00:37:17,000
Speaker 1: it at fifty one and a half, got down to

552
00:37:17,200 --> 00:37:20,560
Speaker 1: forty six and a half. Since Mahomes came back, it's

553
00:37:20,600 --> 00:37:23,239
Speaker 1: back up to forty seven and a half. For those

554
00:37:23,280 --> 00:37:26,719
Speaker 1: who are invested. Forty seven is a key number in totals, right.

555
00:37:26,840 --> 00:37:32,120
Speaker 1: Key numbers are where games tend to land in twenty three, three, seven,

556
00:37:32,239 --> 00:37:36,520
Speaker 1: ten in totals, forty seven, fifty one some other ones.

557
00:37:37,200 --> 00:37:39,000
Speaker 1: If you can get under forty seven and a half,

558
00:37:39,920 --> 00:37:41,520
Speaker 1: that's what the wise guys. That is a it's a

559
00:37:41,680 --> 00:37:44,000
Speaker 1: we talked about pros Joe's all the time. All the

560
00:37:44,040 --> 00:37:45,560
Speaker 1: bets are on the over all the money is on

561
00:37:45,600 --> 00:37:50,439
Speaker 1: the under Chad Millman Action Network c CEO. All that's

562
00:37:50,440 --> 00:37:53,959
Speaker 1: provided by Fandel Good Luck Good see Anyboddy good seeing

563
00:37:54,000 --> 00:38:13,600
Speaker 1: you two man the volume, make sure to check out

564
00:38:13,680 --> 00:38:17,279
Speaker 1: the Draymond Green Show. I brought Draymond Green into the

565
00:38:17,360 --> 00:38:20,200
Speaker 1: volume because one of the more entertaining voices in sports.

566
00:38:20,320 --> 00:38:24,560
Speaker 1: Unique perspective understands behind the Rope also chops up with

567
00:38:24,600 --> 00:38:28,399
Speaker 1: guests like Gary Peyton, Zach Levine, Tracy McGrady. Make sure

568
00:38:28,640 --> 00:38:32,840
Speaker 1: download The Draymond Green Show wherever you get your podcasts,

569
00:38:32,880 --> 00:38:36,400
Speaker 1: only on the Volume podcast Network