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Speaker 1: The Big Bets on Campus Podcast podcast.

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Speaker 2: Pot all right, here we go.

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Speaker 1: Fifteen Hoddy twenty five, thirty thirty five, forty forty five

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Speaker 1: fifty and the Kick as Black college Football world standers.

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Speaker 3: Oh my goodness, he stumbled? And Football The Lateral Turn

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Speaker 3: a counter of the episode, don't you the lad.

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Speaker 2: Table off the fail to Night.

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Speaker 3: It's not the side of the dog in the fight,

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Speaker 3: it's the sage of the fight in the roll.

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Speaker 2: What's up the general nation? Welcome to the Big Bets

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Speaker 2: on Campus Podcast presented by Bett MGM. This is the

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Speaker 2: Week ten college football betting preview. I'm stuck in joining

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Speaker 2: me as always my BBOC Coast Colin Wilson. What a

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Speaker 2: slate we have from start to finish on Saturday. I

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Speaker 2: also can't believe we're already at week ten. What's going on?

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Speaker 3: Com I mean, it's been an interesting week of maction,

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Speaker 3: I guess I should ask. I mean, let's just touch

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Speaker 3: on it real quick for twenty seconds where we move

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Speaker 3: on to a huge loaded slate. Do you like maction

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Speaker 3: better midweek or do you like Conference USA like? I

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Speaker 3: feel so much more comfortable with MAC craziness than I

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Speaker 3: do Conference USA.

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Speaker 2: MAC cannot be surpassed. It's always treated me well. It

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Speaker 2: feels like home when there's midweek maction on. It's a beautiful,

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Speaker 2: beautiful product. We're gonna get to I think twenty to

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Speaker 2: twenty five games here, So let's get things started with

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Speaker 2: a little quick look ahead or look.

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Speaker 3: Away hangovers, sleepers and the dreaded sandwich. Is it time

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Speaker 3: to look ahead or look away?

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Speaker 2: Let's start Big Ten Perdue at Michigan. Michigan has Penn

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Speaker 2: State on deck. Big game in the Big Ten. I

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Speaker 2: think right now the look out line is Michigan minus

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Speaker 2: five and a half, but first they will take on Perdue.

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Speaker 2: Michigan is a thirty two and a half point favorite

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Speaker 2: over under fifty and a half. I think this line

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Speaker 2: is too high just from a numbers perspective, so I

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Speaker 2: would have a hard lean to Purdue. But I don't

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Speaker 2: want any part of this Michigan team right now. With

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Speaker 2: everything that's going on. How much did it really impact them?

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Speaker 2: Every team does to some extent. How much how many

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Speaker 2: other teams are doing the same exact thing is another

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Speaker 2: question I have. Also, like Michigan, they might just use

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Speaker 2: it as a rallying cry. They just want to bury teams.

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Speaker 2: We saw that against Michigan State. Yeah, this is a

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Speaker 2: pure stay away for me. Do you have any feel

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Speaker 2: in this game?

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Speaker 3: It's more of a fact finding trip with the whole

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Speaker 3: Connor stallions of still coming out. We're finding him on

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Speaker 3: the sidelines of Central Michigan with some recording gray bands

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Speaker 3: on his face. So it's a number that I make

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Speaker 3: twenty eight. More importantly, Jim Harbaugh five and ten and

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Speaker 3: one against the spread after a bye week since taking

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Speaker 3: the Michigan job in twenty fifteen. But how do you

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Speaker 3: back Purdue here? I mean, that was pretty bad loss

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Speaker 3: last week, all of us a little bit lighter in

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Speaker 3: the pocketbook. Purdue's lost three straight. Nebraska limited Purdue in

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Speaker 3: the scoring position. There was no methodicals or explosives against

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Speaker 3: that Nebraska defense, and they only achieved twenty percent of

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Speaker 3: available yards. That's not even half of the national average.

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Speaker 3: I don't know how you put money down on Purdue

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Speaker 3: and not cringe. So to me, this is more of

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Speaker 3: how often did Michigan get it right as far as

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Speaker 3: knowing what Purdue is going to run. So it's not

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Speaker 3: that I'm not going to watch this game. I might

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Speaker 3: not bet it, but I'm definitely going to be watching it.

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Speaker 3: As far as a lookheadline, I've got at Penn State

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Speaker 3: Michigan minus five in favor of the Wolverines next week,

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Speaker 3: so I don't expect the market to move much on

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Speaker 3: that look aheadline.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, Perdue last week, I mean there was seven turnovers

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Speaker 2: in the game, Nebraska only had two hundred and seventy yards,

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Speaker 2: but yeah, Purdue was under two hundred yards, and that

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Speaker 2: was a good matchup for the Perdue defense because their

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Speaker 2: secondary is really slow and you're playing I mean, Heinra

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Speaker 2: Carberg went six of eleven for one hundred and twenty

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Speaker 2: yards in the game. But now you're going up against

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Speaker 2: a legit Heisman contenter and that We've seen this Purdue

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Speaker 2: secondary get exposed against really good passing attacks. And their

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Speaker 2: run defense isn't any good either, So it's going to

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Speaker 2: be a tough ass for Purdue to get many stops here.

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Speaker 2: But I think the line is a little inflated. I mean,

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Speaker 2: this is a Michigan team that what was minus thirty

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Speaker 2: five at home against East Carolina as a as a

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Speaker 2: as a data point, they were minus thirty one against

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Speaker 2: Indiana at home a couple weeks goot, to me produce

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Speaker 2: better than Indiana, so I think the line is a

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Speaker 2: little high, but no interest in back them. I do

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Speaker 2: have interest in backing the other side of the coin

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Speaker 2: in State. So Penn State before the Michigan game will

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Speaker 2: head down to Maryland head State down to an eight

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Speaker 2: and a half point underdog. I took a little better

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Speaker 2: of a number early in the week if you follow

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Speaker 2: me in the app, but I still would play this

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Speaker 2: at eight and a half. I just look number one. Yes,

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Speaker 2: Penn State is Michigan on deck. It's their season. I

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Speaker 2: think it's a good spot to buy low on Maryland.

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Speaker 2: They've lost three straight. They gave a really good effort

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Speaker 2: at Ohio State, then there was a pick six and

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Speaker 2: they kind of fell apart late and then they were

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Speaker 2: kind of doomed for with some turnovers and close losses.

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Speaker 2: I think there's a little hangover effect from that Ohio

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Speaker 2: State game. But if you look at this game, I

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Speaker 2: just don't trust this Penn State offense to blow anybody up. Yes,

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Speaker 2: they were blowing teams out early in the season. They

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Speaker 2: were getting a ton a ton of turnover luck, and

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Speaker 2: they were playing absolute corpses. This offense just has no

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Speaker 2: explosiveness to it. They can't. No explosit is a run game,

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Speaker 2: none in the past game. I don't trust them to

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Speaker 2: cover this number. You saw this last weekends Indiana. I mean,

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Speaker 2: you would think Penn State would bounce back. Nope, nothing.

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Speaker 2: The offense is just dead. There's no one stepping up

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Speaker 2: at receiver. Now you're down another receiver. It's just an

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Speaker 2: ugly offense right now. I like the terms over a touchdown.

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Speaker 2: Do you agree?

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Speaker 3: I agree that I think there's gonna be points in

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Speaker 3: this game, which means Maryland needs to do their part.

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Speaker 3: I do project this above fifty five. I know it's

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Speaker 3: well but fifty to half fifty one as we're recording this.

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Speaker 3: Mike Loxley on James Franklin this week. We have a

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Speaker 3: great working relationship, but I wouldn't say that we text

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Speaker 3: Merry Christmas to each other. If you throw out the

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Speaker 3: pandemic season, which I always do. With stats, Penn State

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Speaker 3: has beaten Maryland all five times since, you know, since

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Speaker 3: they played each other since, with a scoring differential of

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Speaker 3: two hundred and twenty four to twenty. It's been pretty lopsided.

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Speaker 3: Maryland's lost three straight here right now, scored sixty eight

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Speaker 3: total versus Northwestern Illinois and Ohio State. So you're gonna

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Speaker 3: ask them to score their share here, to get this

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Speaker 3: cover and to get over this total. And I think

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Speaker 3: that they can. But the real factor why I kind

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Speaker 3: of like the over here. Drew Aller took six deep

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Speaker 3: shots against Indiana. He completed three of them for two touchdowns.

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Speaker 3: Before the game he had to attempted just fifteen passes

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Speaker 3: over twenty yards, completing four of them. Like I mean literally,

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Speaker 3: like forty percent of his bombs this year came against Indiana.

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Speaker 3: Is is this just something that we're now trying out

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Speaker 3: before we get to Michigan. It's shocking to me that

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Speaker 3: all of a sudden, we waited tell Indiana to get

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Speaker 3: that far down the field. So I like points in

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Speaker 3: this one, But Maryland's got to do their partner. I

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Speaker 3: think they will.

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Speaker 2: I think Maryland can keep up. Penn State's also been

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Speaker 2: lucky turnovers number one did turnover margin, so there could

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Speaker 2: be some negative aggression there. I like Maryland, don't mind

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Speaker 2: you're over, although Penn State overs make me cringe. Another one,

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Speaker 2: Florida State. They have Miami on deck, trying to remain undefeated.

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Speaker 2: Top of the class the ACC in a position for

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Speaker 2: a college football playoff Berth. They first will travel to Pitt.

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Speaker 2: They are lying over three touchdowns here. I mean this

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Speaker 2: number is a bit inflated to me, but I don't

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Speaker 2: think I can. I don't think I can. And look,

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Speaker 2: Florida State has been inconsistent at times. I would lean

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Speaker 2: Pitt here on the spot they Pitt was embarrassed last

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Speaker 2: week Florida State with Miami and Deck. It's a great

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Speaker 2: situational spot. Didn't make my spots piece because I don't

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Speaker 2: know where this pit team is at mentally. You have

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Speaker 2: Nardoozi coming out with some bad comments, players taking to

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Speaker 2: social media. So Pitt is the spot. Little inflated of

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Speaker 2: a number in my opinion, But I don't think I

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Speaker 2: want to throw any money behind, any more money behind

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Speaker 2: these Panthers got them in their spot with Louisville, so

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Speaker 2: this will passed.

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Speaker 3: I would There's some money that came in on Pitt today,

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Speaker 3: driving it down to twenty one at one of the

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Speaker 3: Sharper shops out in Vegas. So I would be entertained

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Speaker 3: in Florida State at twenty one. But Pitt's on corpse watch.

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Speaker 3: I mean, it's tough to make a case after getting

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Speaker 3: bolt raced by Notre Dame, and Notre Dame didn't have

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Speaker 3: a single methodical drive against them, which is defined as

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Speaker 3: ten plus plays in a dry I've had four explosive

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Speaker 3: drives out of the twelve that they had. Offenses, you know,

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Speaker 3: they just it's just been such a struggle for this

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Speaker 3: pit offense, especially a quarterback Christian Veyer had four interceptions.

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Speaker 3: They had twenty three percent success rate in thirty four

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Speaker 3: passing attempts. Pitt is nearly the worst passing offense in

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Speaker 3: the nation. They're dead last. And quality drives on offense

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Speaker 3: and defensively, this team is one hundred and thirty third

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Speaker 3: and broken tackles allowed. I think they're broken tackles allowed.

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Speaker 3: When I bring that up, I think that's more of like,

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Speaker 3: do you care anymore? Because obviously that's where arm tackles

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Speaker 3: come in and they don't get the job done. And

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Speaker 3: when you rank one hundred and thirty third on a

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Speaker 3: nardoozy defense, that is really saying something. Norvell, will he

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Speaker 3: want to run it up or to stay in the

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Speaker 3: good graces of the committee. Does he want to keep

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Speaker 3: Jordan Travis in the hunt for the Heisman I know

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Speaker 3: he was asked a lot about the weather. It's not

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Speaker 3: going to be an issue. High fifty is a kickoff

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Speaker 3: win that under ten miles an hour, he said, It'll

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Speaker 3: be more of a problem for the media than anybody else.

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Speaker 3: I think Florida State's going to get it done here.

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Speaker 3: I would just like to get the best of the

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Speaker 3: number twenty one. I do projected like nineteen and a half,

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Speaker 3: so obviously would like to get I think the numbers

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Speaker 3: guys are probably gonna scoop Pit at twenty one and

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Speaker 3: a half, and it's probably a bad decision considering, like

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Speaker 3: I said, Pit's on corpse watch.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, another one, Utah. This is a tough spot for Utah.

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Speaker 2: They get blown out by Oregon pretty much out of

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Speaker 2: any race. Now the if Washington on deck, but first

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Speaker 2: they will host Arizona State. Arizona State. Also, that's not

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Speaker 2: the best spot. I mean, they went up to Seattle,

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Speaker 2: should have beat Washington, come home beat Washington State, right, like,

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Speaker 2: third straight big game on the road at Utah. I've

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Speaker 2: been briding this Arizona State team every week. I've in

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Speaker 2: love with the Arizona Pac twelve schools. We'll get to

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Speaker 2: Arizona later. This isn't the best matchup for Arizona State though,

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Speaker 2: because that Utah should be able to run it like

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Speaker 2: the Arizona State secondary is really good. They can get pressure,

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Speaker 2: rice eCos bounce backspot. So I'm a little afraid of

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Speaker 2: Arizona State here might find only avoid the sun Devils.

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Speaker 2: Now at this line, I think, I mean, if it opened,

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Speaker 2: I think we're the look I was either. If there's

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Speaker 2: over two touchdowns, I would play Arizona State eleven eleven

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Speaker 2: and a half. I'm not going to fade my beloved Sundals,

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Speaker 2: but I think I'm finally jumping off the train.

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Speaker 3: For now, Arizona State is the side I would play.

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Speaker 3: I'm more interested in the under here. This is only

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Speaker 3: the third game for Kenny Dillingham on the road. He

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Speaker 3: easily covered against Washington week eight twelve and a half

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Speaker 3: points spread against and they had a three point loss

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Speaker 3: against Cal in week five, so they cover that twelve

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Speaker 3: and a half against Cal easily, so you know. Dillingham

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Speaker 3: on replicating the Washington result with Utah, he says, we

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Speaker 3: went into a bubble. We made ourselves deaf for five days.

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Speaker 3: That's what we have to do when we take on Utah,

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Speaker 3: which is the gold standard of college football, wanting to

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Speaker 3: be physical and efficient, and the rushing attack of Cam

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Speaker 3: Skatebow and de Carlos Brooks led the charge in scoring

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Speaker 3: thirty eight against Washington State last week. The offense of

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Speaker 3: the offense sixty four percent success rate in rushing attempts,

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Speaker 3: so you know against Washington they were sixty eight percent

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Speaker 3: success rate and running the ball on thirty one attempts,

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Speaker 3: dominating the time of possession thirty seven to twenty three

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Speaker 3: minutes against the Huskies. So that's been the formula. Why

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Speaker 3: everybody's waking up to Arizona State is because they've been

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Speaker 3: so dominant running the ball. You go into Utah's schedule

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Speaker 3: and you see who they've gone against, Like, who can

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Speaker 3: do that to the Utah defense. The one team that

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Speaker 3: has a really a big ground based attack that did

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Speaker 3: embarrass Utah was Oregon State. I mean, they have a

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Speaker 3: much tougher strength of schedule. A lot of things we

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Speaker 3: could talk about, but really it's the Oregon State defense,

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Speaker 3: the Oregon State offensive rushing attack that did that. It

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Speaker 3: was tough. I mean Beaver's four point six yards per

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Speaker 3: play on the ground, they were stuffed on half of

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Speaker 3: their thirty three attempts where they had success was Silas Bolden,

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Speaker 3: like running all over the place sideline to sideline, doing

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Speaker 3: crazy things in the back. It wasn't just like they

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Speaker 3: lined it up to Damian Martinez or they let you know,

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Speaker 3: DJ run an RPO and that's what burned him. It wasn't.

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Speaker 3: It was really like some crazy sideline to sideline Silas

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Speaker 3: Bolden type stuff. So I'm not sure ivery Zona stake

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Speaker 3: and just line up with their two running backs and

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Speaker 3: mow them over. I like the under here. I don't

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Speaker 3: really see an avenue on either side of the ball

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Speaker 3: for these guys to score a whole ton of points.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't mind the under either, all right, before

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Speaker 2: we get to our marquee matchups. As a reminder of

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Speaker 2: the BBOC podcast Center by BETTMGM used bonus code action

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Speaker 2: Gambling problem call one eight hundred gambler. All right, let's

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Speaker 2: get to our marquee matchups up the weekend. It's another

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Speaker 2: fabulous weekend of college football.

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Speaker 3: Let's check out the marquee matchups. We'll all end up

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Speaker 3: betting for Week ten.

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Speaker 2: We are going to cover five games in depth. Then

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Speaker 2: we'll get to the rundown, which we'll cover seven more.

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Speaker 2: I'll get to some trash. We have a lot to

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Speaker 2: get to, so let's start in the sec here.

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Speaker 1: It just means more.

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Speaker 2: A surging seven to one Missouri team will travel to

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Speaker 2: Athens to take on a still undefeated Georgia Bulldog squad

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Speaker 2: sitting at eight to no on the season. George is

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Speaker 2: a fifteen and a half point favored here over under

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Speaker 2: fifty six and a half. Missouri is coming up situationally

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Speaker 2: decent spot for Missouri coming off of bye. Georgia's off

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Speaker 2: of that Florida game, But obviously it's a really tough

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Speaker 2: place to play. That Georgia team seems to be finding

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Speaker 2: its stride and knows when to turn it on. And

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Speaker 2: you know, this is a huge game in the SEC.

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Speaker 2: I mean Missouri they went out probably going to the

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Speaker 2: College Wall Playoff, depending on what happens with other teams.

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Speaker 3: You got some of that three one on them to

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Speaker 3: win the national title. I had some questions about this, like, no,

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Speaker 3: I don't think we're going to do that.

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Speaker 2: I did not. But many people maybe not have seen

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Speaker 2: Missouri play this year. I mean there, maybe they saw

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Speaker 2: them against LSU. They did give up forty nine. They

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Speaker 2: took care of business against Kentucky South Carolina. They even

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Speaker 2: beat Kansas State on a think that was on at

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Speaker 2: the sixty two yard field goal at the end. They

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Speaker 2: struggled early in the year. But just to get people

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Speaker 2: a quick high level overview of Missouri if you're not

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Speaker 2: too familiar, offense is very good with Brady Cook. Early

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Speaker 2: in the season, they weren't really throwing it downfield. I

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Speaker 2: think that just had to do with quality competition. They

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Speaker 2: since have and the offense is really benefited. Thee Brady Cook,

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Speaker 2: excuse me, the Oise and Mookie Cooper are really nice

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Speaker 2: compliments for Luther Burden. It's one of the best wide

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Speaker 2: receivers in the country. The offensive line is all pretty

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Speaker 2: good in pass blocking except for right guard Cam Johnson.

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Speaker 2: But they're still struggling to get a consistent rushing attack,

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Speaker 2: which I think could hurt them here. They're gonna have

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Speaker 2: to go to the air, right. I don't think they're

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Speaker 2: gonna get much on the ground against Georgia. And then

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Speaker 2: they have a death row defense, that's what they call it. Really.

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Speaker 2: They have really good corners and Rake Strawl, who's now

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Speaker 2: back he missed a couple of games. Strain and Norwood

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Speaker 2: good linebackers on paper in Hopper and Chad Bailey is

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Speaker 2: one of the best in the SEC. But Chad Bailey

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Speaker 2: I think is gonna be out for this game, and

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Speaker 2: that's big. He's one of their best pass rushers from

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Speaker 2: the linebacker spot. And they just and they're very good

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Speaker 2: against the run, one gap scheme, very disciplined one gap scheme,

320
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Speaker 2: like you can't really run much on them, and their

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Speaker 2: linebackers clean up a lot, but they don't get a

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Speaker 2: ton of pressure naturally, and their safeties are bad, so

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Speaker 2: they give up because they're not getting pressure. And your

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Speaker 2: safeties are bad even though your corners are good and

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Speaker 2: can cover, leads you vulnerable to explosive plays, which has

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Speaker 2: been a major issue for the Missouri defense. So without

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Speaker 2: Bailey he might play it. I don't think he is.

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Speaker 2: It's a big loss. You got to generate some pressure

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Speaker 2: and then create some chaos. Otherwise, this defense, even though

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Speaker 2: I like the corners, they just can't hold up because

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Speaker 2: the safety play has been so bad. And he does

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Speaker 2: line was aren't great in coverage either. So that's a

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Speaker 2: quick summary on Missouri. I'm pretty close to market here,

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Speaker 2: so I don't have anything, but I think you do.

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Speaker 2: What do you see here?

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Speaker 3: I feel like a broken record. I think this is

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Speaker 3: a third or fourth week in a row. I'm taking

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Speaker 3: it over in a Georgia game. I mean to me,

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Speaker 3: it was just so clear cut with this. And I'll

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Speaker 3: start with the side of Missouri since he started there.

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Speaker 3: Like you remember, it was like six weeks ago, we

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Speaker 3: were like, what is this Kirby more offense? Like are

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Speaker 3: they holding things out? Because it was such a.

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Speaker 2: They weren't thrown downfield at all.

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Speaker 3: They weren't throwing downfield, and they had all the weapons

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Speaker 3: in the world. But now we've seen those weapons. And

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Speaker 3: you mentioned Luther Burden. He's the best slot in the nation.

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Speaker 3: The number two slot in the nation used to be

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Speaker 3: the guy who used to play that for them, who's

350
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Speaker 3: now playing for Georgia. But when you look at Brady Cook,

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Speaker 3: he's effective throwing in ten eleven twelve personnel. He's got

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Speaker 3: twenty big time throws, a seven turnover worthy plays, Luther

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Speaker 3: Burden being the biggest threat, and the slot teams can

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Speaker 3: attack Georgia on the ground, not through the air. So

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Speaker 3: I got a little bit worried. I wanted to take

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Speaker 3: Missouri at eighteen and a half seventeen and a half

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Speaker 3: because I power rate this thing around two touchdowns. But

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Speaker 3: I just couldn't do it because of some of the

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Speaker 3: things you mentioned. But once I looked at what Georgia

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Speaker 3: does on defense, they run quarters, they run Cover three.

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Speaker 3: Both of those are the highest success rate in EPA

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Speaker 3: that Brady Cook has had all season. At least twenty

363
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Speaker 3: percent of snaps against quarters and Cover three have been

364
00:18:17,160 --> 00:18:21,399
Speaker 3: explosives for Missouri this year. George's fifth in coverage grading

365
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Speaker 3: and their tenth and on target allowed. So that's really

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Speaker 3: Missouri's gonna be able to get it downfield. They're going

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Speaker 3: to be able to get themselves into scoring position and

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Speaker 3: get points up. But I think it's going to be

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Speaker 3: critical about what they do in the red zone against

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Speaker 3: this defense, whether they can cover, so I didn't even

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Speaker 3: want to mess with the cover. They're going to get

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Speaker 3: their points. Go to the other side. Carson Beck is

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Speaker 3: getting better week after week. I mean, I'm not trying

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Speaker 3: to scare you in and thinking you're gonna have to

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Speaker 3: eat a shoe. I'll mail you one that's real nice,

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Speaker 3: old and leathery and taste terrible. But Carson Beck is

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Speaker 3: getting better. He loves to throw against Cover one and

378
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Speaker 3: Cover three. Missouri is seventy sixth and coverage you named it.

379
00:18:54,359 --> 00:18:57,760
Speaker 3: They are leaky in defense, they are leaky and scoring opportunities.

380
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Speaker 3: They're sixty ninth in quality drives. Teams are getting down

381
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Speaker 3: the field, they're ninety ninth and finishing drives. Teams are

382
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Speaker 3: finishing up with points usually over four points per trip.

383
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Speaker 3: So the biggest handicap in this game is the slots.

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Speaker 3: Luther Burden versus former Missouri tired Dominic Lovett, who has

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Speaker 3: taken over all those short crossers and slants that has

386
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Speaker 3: left for the brock Bowers is not a part of

387
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Speaker 3: anymore now. Tyke Smith is going to draw Luther Burden

388
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Speaker 3: when it comes to Missouri on offense. That's good on good,

389
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Speaker 3: It's definitely a battle to watch. But Dylan Carnell drawing

390
00:19:28,040 --> 00:19:32,040
Speaker 3: Dominic Love it Carnell has been targeted forty three times.

391
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Speaker 3: He's allowed twenty nine catches playing slot corner eight point

392
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Speaker 3: two per when he's been targeted. So it's it's not

393
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Speaker 3: a good matchup for Missouri on defense whatsoever. So both

394
00:19:40,800 --> 00:19:44,600
Speaker 3: offenses are going to have problems establishing the rush. They're

395
00:19:44,640 --> 00:19:47,560
Speaker 3: both going to be above success rate and EPA when

396
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Speaker 3: they're throwing the ball. I love the over here. I

397
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Speaker 3: took it at fifty four and a half. It's zoomed

398
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Speaker 3: through fifty five. This morning I put in the sixties.

399
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Speaker 3: I put it at sixty one, so go ahead. Fifty

400
00:19:57,480 --> 00:19:59,280
Speaker 3: nine is the next key number. But I just I

401
00:19:59,280 --> 00:20:02,879
Speaker 3: mean Georgia tried cover the total all by themselves last week.

402
00:20:03,480 --> 00:20:07,000
Speaker 3: Carson Beekkers has too many advantages and explosives here with

403
00:20:07,080 --> 00:20:09,800
Speaker 3: you know, with Dominic Love and the slot. So over

404
00:20:09,840 --> 00:20:12,280
Speaker 3: all the way here, the spread is probably a toss up.

405
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Speaker 3: I might stay away from it.

406
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Speaker 2: Yeah, I think both teams are gonna go past that

407
00:20:15,600 --> 00:20:18,080
Speaker 2: a year now. Georgia knows how you attack. This Missouri

408
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Speaker 2: team is through the air, so that would certainly favor

409
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Speaker 2: the over all. Right, let's move on to bed them.

410
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Speaker 2: This the final addition of Bedlom in Stillwater. I have

411
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Speaker 2: I went there night in Oklahoma Future. It was amazing atmosphere.

412
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Speaker 2: This is the last one, which is kind of sad,

413
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Speaker 2: one of the things that is going to come of

414
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Speaker 2: conference realignment that I don't think any college football fan likes.

415
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Speaker 2: But Oklahoma is a five and a half six point

416
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Speaker 2: favorite here over under sixty one. So Oklahoma. Look, Oklahoma's

417
00:21:00,560 --> 00:21:04,760
Speaker 2: been exposed. They played cupcakes early in the season. They

418
00:21:04,840 --> 00:21:08,160
Speaker 2: got that Texas women. They were pretty fortunate. Rhetoric a arrival,

419
00:21:08,320 --> 00:21:10,240
Speaker 2: these things are always gonna be wild. But their defense

420
00:21:10,280 --> 00:21:13,680
Speaker 2: has been exposed ever since that game. I mean right

421
00:21:14,920 --> 00:21:16,760
Speaker 2: outside the top one hundred and number of metrics over

422
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Speaker 2: the past few weeks. Danny Stutsman might be out to

423
00:21:19,520 --> 00:21:23,720
Speaker 2: he's big huge is an ankle injury. This Oklahoma State

424
00:21:23,760 --> 00:21:28,840
Speaker 2: team is And look, the Oklahoma running game's not there.

425
00:21:28,840 --> 00:21:31,920
Speaker 2: There's offensive line issues, the wide receivers aren't that talented,

426
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Speaker 2: and they are missing the the andrel Anthony is there,

427
00:21:35,400 --> 00:21:38,280
Speaker 2: who's their leading receiver. He's out for the season. So

428
00:21:38,320 --> 00:21:41,000
Speaker 2: Gabriel has been great, but this team is not as

429
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Speaker 2: good as some people thought, and they were exposed past weeks.

430
00:21:44,480 --> 00:21:47,399
Speaker 2: Could have lost to use Yea, lost to Kansas. I

431
00:21:47,440 --> 00:21:51,440
Speaker 2: can't get looked. I show some value in Oklahoma. Now

432
00:21:51,480 --> 00:21:54,320
Speaker 2: this is under a touchdown, but I'm not betting Oklahoma

433
00:21:54,320 --> 00:21:56,119
Speaker 2: because I don't know. I just can't catch up to

434
00:21:56,119 --> 00:21:58,600
Speaker 2: Oklahoma State. So Oklahoma State as this is one of

435
00:21:58,600 --> 00:22:02,800
Speaker 2: the most shocking turnarounds I've seen in college football. This

436
00:22:02,840 --> 00:22:07,520
Speaker 2: is a team that early in the season was they

437
00:22:07,520 --> 00:22:09,320
Speaker 2: got they got their doors blowing off and home to

438
00:22:09,400 --> 00:22:12,879
Speaker 2: South Alabama. They were in a fight with Central Arkansas

439
00:22:13,080 --> 00:22:15,200
Speaker 2: at home, and then they come out of the buy

440
00:22:16,359 --> 00:22:20,639
Speaker 2: and their offense has been a juggernaut. And so what

441
00:22:20,680 --> 00:22:24,040
Speaker 2: has happened I'll explain to people because it was its

442
00:22:24,119 --> 00:22:26,800
Speaker 2: very It was very confusing to me. So Number one,

443
00:22:26,800 --> 00:22:28,560
Speaker 2: they stuck with one quarterback. They were going with three

444
00:22:28,600 --> 00:22:32,679
Speaker 2: Gundee sun Wrangle and then Alan Bowman. They stuck with

445
00:22:32,720 --> 00:22:35,879
Speaker 2: Alan Bowman. Consistency right, consistency reps running with the ones.

446
00:22:36,680 --> 00:22:38,879
Speaker 2: And then they also started feeding Oli Gordon, I mean

447
00:22:38,880 --> 00:22:41,719
Speaker 2: Oli Gordon. Over the last five games. Gordon's average eight

448
00:22:41,800 --> 00:22:45,320
Speaker 2: yards per carry rush from years eight thousand yards eight

449
00:22:45,359 --> 00:22:47,600
Speaker 2: touchdowns on the ground against West Virginia and Cincinnati over

450
00:22:47,600 --> 00:22:50,600
Speaker 2: the past two games two eighty two and two seventy

451
00:22:50,600 --> 00:22:51,960
Speaker 2: one with six touchdowns.

452
00:22:52,760 --> 00:22:52,879
Speaker 1: Uh.

453
00:22:53,240 --> 00:22:55,359
Speaker 2: Now, so Oli Gordon, I think early in the season

454
00:22:55,359 --> 00:22:57,119
Speaker 2: they weren't given the ball. He is one of the

455
00:22:57,160 --> 00:23:00,159
Speaker 2: best running backs in the country. What has that done?

456
00:23:00,520 --> 00:23:02,679
Speaker 2: And by the way, it's not just all Oli Gordon.

457
00:23:03,200 --> 00:23:06,720
Speaker 2: They got Jake Springfield is one of their best offensive

458
00:23:06,720 --> 00:23:10,280
Speaker 2: line back from injury at right tackle. That enabled them

459
00:23:10,280 --> 00:23:12,679
Speaker 2: to move Dalton Cooper from right tackle to left tackle.

460
00:23:12,760 --> 00:23:15,280
Speaker 2: He's a transferre from Texas State. Were really good transfer

461
00:23:15,400 --> 00:23:17,760
Speaker 2: played four years there, always played left tackle, was struggling

462
00:23:17,800 --> 00:23:20,280
Speaker 2: at right tackle. Able to move him to left tackle.

463
00:23:20,640 --> 00:23:21,320
Speaker 3: What did that do?

464
00:23:21,440 --> 00:23:26,360
Speaker 2: That enabled them to kick Cole Birmingham from into left

465
00:23:26,400 --> 00:23:30,160
Speaker 2: guard from left tackle. He's better suited there. This offensive

466
00:23:30,160 --> 00:23:32,640
Speaker 2: line now everyone's in place. It's all fifty year seniors.

467
00:23:33,119 --> 00:23:36,679
Speaker 2: It's massive. And earlier this season it was a mess.

468
00:23:37,160 --> 00:23:40,400
Speaker 2: Offensive line set hid the ball to Ali Gordon. He's

469
00:23:40,440 --> 00:23:43,240
Speaker 2: taking advantage. And then because of that, because this run

470
00:23:43,280 --> 00:23:46,480
Speaker 2: game is just a machine, it doesn't matter. Teams are

471
00:23:46,680 --> 00:23:48,679
Speaker 2: loading the box dry and stop it. They can't. What

472
00:23:48,840 --> 00:23:52,480
Speaker 2: is that done play action, so wide receivers aren't great,

473
00:23:52,680 --> 00:23:55,320
Speaker 2: but now setting up the play action pass game easy

474
00:23:55,359 --> 00:23:58,600
Speaker 2: throws for Bowman and the whole offensive operation has done

475
00:23:58,640 --> 00:24:03,560
Speaker 2: a complete one eighty. Oklahoma State defense is okay. Colin

476
00:24:03,600 --> 00:24:06,760
Speaker 2: Oliver and Nicholas Martin are one of the best linebacker

477
00:24:06,800 --> 00:24:09,399
Speaker 2: duos in the Big twelve. There's some good cover corners,

478
00:24:09,400 --> 00:24:11,280
Speaker 2: but the defensive line and the safeties aren't great, so

479
00:24:11,280 --> 00:24:12,719
Speaker 2: you can run on them a bit. You can hit

480
00:24:12,760 --> 00:24:15,800
Speaker 2: some explosive plays through the air. They've been lucky with

481
00:24:15,840 --> 00:24:19,040
Speaker 2: turnovers on defensive past few weeks, like everyone's turning it over.

482
00:24:19,040 --> 00:24:22,960
Speaker 2: They're getting defensive special team scores. But I also have

483
00:24:23,000 --> 00:24:26,760
Speaker 2: to give credit to Brian Nardo, who people clowned down

484
00:24:26,800 --> 00:24:29,880
Speaker 2: Gundy for hiring him. He's made some great halftime adjustments.

485
00:24:29,880 --> 00:24:32,920
Speaker 2: Did it against since he last week again, So the

486
00:24:33,000 --> 00:24:37,400
Speaker 2: questions can Oklahoma take advantage of this defense? I think

487
00:24:37,400 --> 00:24:39,000
Speaker 2: they should be able to score here. They're going to

488
00:24:39,080 --> 00:24:40,359
Speaker 2: go fast. I think they're gonna be a little bit

489
00:24:40,359 --> 00:24:44,600
Speaker 2: more aggressive after last week. But their defense, especially if

490
00:24:44,640 --> 00:24:46,760
Speaker 2: Susman's out there, I don't know this Okahoma State team

491
00:24:46,800 --> 00:24:49,399
Speaker 2: is rolling. I can't back Oklahoma State because my numbers

492
00:24:49,400 --> 00:24:52,280
Speaker 2: can't get there, and this is the last bad them too.

493
00:24:52,320 --> 00:24:54,800
Speaker 2: But I also can't bet back Oklahoma because I just

494
00:24:54,880 --> 00:24:56,800
Speaker 2: this Oklahoma State team. It's very hard for me to

495
00:24:56,800 --> 00:24:59,280
Speaker 2: go from where I was to like adjust pick them

496
00:24:59,359 --> 00:25:01,399
Speaker 2: up enough to get here. But they just might be

497
00:25:02,280 --> 00:25:04,960
Speaker 2: way better than I've been adjusting for. What do you

498
00:25:04,960 --> 00:25:06,879
Speaker 2: see here in the final edition?

499
00:25:08,440 --> 00:25:10,680
Speaker 3: I agree? I mean, I power rated seven. So you're

500
00:25:10,720 --> 00:25:12,160
Speaker 3: kind of taking a leap of faith if you want

501
00:25:12,160 --> 00:25:14,360
Speaker 3: to back the Cowboys. But if you're backing Oklahoma, how

502
00:25:14,359 --> 00:25:18,320
Speaker 3: comfortable do you feel? Probably not that comfortable. And some

503
00:25:18,400 --> 00:25:20,520
Speaker 3: things that you didn't mention, you know, cash your tickets

504
00:25:20,560 --> 00:25:22,520
Speaker 3: on media day. But when I was at media to day,

505
00:25:23,560 --> 00:25:25,639
Speaker 3: Gundy got up in front of everybody and talked about

506
00:25:25,920 --> 00:25:27,919
Speaker 3: and all the questions were on Nardo. Right. You went

507
00:25:27,960 --> 00:25:30,800
Speaker 3: and got a guy from Gannon University. He's like, hey,

508
00:25:30,880 --> 00:25:32,639
Speaker 3: he knows the scheme that we run. He runs the

509
00:25:32,640 --> 00:25:34,879
Speaker 3: same thing. I did my homework. I know what we're getting,

510
00:25:35,000 --> 00:25:38,639
Speaker 3: you know, Quod asking me about it, and you know,

511
00:25:38,720 --> 00:25:40,240
Speaker 3: I mean, that was all the talk. And then when

512
00:25:40,240 --> 00:25:42,800
Speaker 3: he came off the side, you know, and Brett and

513
00:25:42,800 --> 00:25:44,120
Speaker 3: I got him off to the side and started talking

514
00:25:44,160 --> 00:25:46,679
Speaker 3: to him one on one. All my questions were on

515
00:25:46,720 --> 00:25:50,560
Speaker 3: the run concepts and the blocking concepts going from gap zone.

516
00:25:51,080 --> 00:25:54,000
Speaker 3: Oh yeah, the offensive line is completely changing the way

517
00:25:54,000 --> 00:25:55,639
Speaker 3: that we block. When you go and look at what

518
00:25:55,640 --> 00:25:59,960
Speaker 3: Oklahoma State has done on their offense from a rushing perspective,

519
00:26:00,960 --> 00:26:03,920
Speaker 3: something just clicked around Game four, Game five, it finally

520
00:26:03,920 --> 00:26:06,560
Speaker 3: clicked and now they're just hammering people from rushing the ball.

521
00:26:06,600 --> 00:26:07,240
Speaker 3: But I'm gonna start.

522
00:26:07,320 --> 00:26:08,680
Speaker 2: Yeah, they got I mean, they went to Gordon, the

523
00:26:08,760 --> 00:26:11,080
Speaker 2: offensive line got healthy, everyone at the natural position. They

524
00:26:11,160 --> 00:26:14,960
Speaker 2: changed the scheme more zone based, and then it took off.

525
00:26:15,000 --> 00:26:16,840
Speaker 2: And then i 't able to passing attack even with

526
00:26:16,880 --> 00:26:20,720
Speaker 2: bad receives just because it's by action, right. So everything changed, And.

527
00:26:20,680 --> 00:26:23,240
Speaker 3: So for that reason, that's one of those things where

528
00:26:23,320 --> 00:26:25,720
Speaker 3: you know, mister, I think, what does everyone like to

529
00:26:25,720 --> 00:26:28,280
Speaker 3: call me on Twitter and our voicemails, nerd, I like

530
00:26:28,320 --> 00:26:29,840
Speaker 3: have to step out of my Excel sheet and my

531
00:26:29,920 --> 00:26:31,760
Speaker 3: numbers and realize that there's a lot of things going

532
00:26:31,760 --> 00:26:34,560
Speaker 3: on here that you can't quantify with the Cowboys, you know,

533
00:26:34,600 --> 00:26:36,240
Speaker 3: when you go to the other side of the ball,

534
00:26:36,280 --> 00:26:38,360
Speaker 3: when you look at Oklahoma State's offense, there's a couple

535
00:26:38,440 --> 00:26:39,800
Speaker 3: of key things that you need to keep in mind,

536
00:26:39,840 --> 00:26:41,480
Speaker 3: because yes, I have put a bed in the app

537
00:26:41,520 --> 00:26:45,080
Speaker 3: on Oklahoma State, but it comes with a contingency. Ollie

538
00:26:45,119 --> 00:26:48,480
Speaker 3: Gordon accounts for forty percent of this Oklahoma State offense.

539
00:26:48,560 --> 00:26:51,280
Speaker 3: That's insane for a running back. For a quarterback, fine,

540
00:26:51,320 --> 00:26:55,080
Speaker 3: for a running back, it's pretty insane. The only handicap

541
00:26:55,119 --> 00:26:57,119
Speaker 3: that should be in this game is can you stop

542
00:26:57,160 --> 00:26:59,320
Speaker 3: Ollie Gordon? So when you look at that, he averages

543
00:26:59,320 --> 00:27:02,560
Speaker 3: four point seven yards after contact. After contact, he's gaining

544
00:27:02,600 --> 00:27:06,359
Speaker 3: another five yards. He's top ten nationally and mistackles forced

545
00:27:06,359 --> 00:27:09,159
Speaker 3: at forty three. So he does this all the time. Now,

546
00:27:09,200 --> 00:27:12,080
Speaker 3: what do you need? You need a defense doesn't miss tackles,

547
00:27:12,320 --> 00:27:14,639
Speaker 3: doesn't have broken tackles. The first guy to get to

548
00:27:14,720 --> 00:27:16,040
Speaker 3: him is the one that tackles them. Will you know

549
00:27:16,119 --> 00:27:19,280
Speaker 3: who that guy is on the defense? Danny Stutsman. And

550
00:27:19,600 --> 00:27:21,359
Speaker 3: when he went out of that game against Kansas, I

551
00:27:21,440 --> 00:27:23,560
Speaker 3: knew I was screwed. I knew that I was gonna

552
00:27:23,560 --> 00:27:25,120
Speaker 3: get a lot of tweets from you. I was gonna

553
00:27:25,119 --> 00:27:27,639
Speaker 3: get a lot of text from pissed off people like everything. Like,

554
00:27:27,840 --> 00:27:30,720
Speaker 3: I knew that Oklahoma's in deep trouble without Stutsman, because

555
00:27:30,720 --> 00:27:32,480
Speaker 3: this goes back to what I've been saying for years

556
00:27:32,480 --> 00:27:35,720
Speaker 3: with vinibles. He has to have a middle linebacker that's

557
00:27:35,760 --> 00:27:38,800
Speaker 3: a captain that goes out on the field, relays the plays,

558
00:27:39,119 --> 00:27:42,080
Speaker 3: lines up the defense, calls out the audibles like it

559
00:27:42,119 --> 00:27:45,960
Speaker 3: is an assistant coach and venables defense that plays. Middle linebacker.

560
00:27:46,000 --> 00:27:49,119
Speaker 3: Stutsman is that guy. If he's not playing, which right

561
00:27:49,160 --> 00:27:52,240
Speaker 3: now at this second as we're recording game time decision,

562
00:27:52,800 --> 00:27:54,960
Speaker 3: it means everything in the world to me in this bet.

563
00:27:55,000 --> 00:27:56,800
Speaker 3: If he's playing, you might see me get out of it.

564
00:27:56,840 --> 00:27:59,639
Speaker 3: If he's not, we're riding the cowboys here. But one

565
00:27:59,680 --> 00:28:01,879
Speaker 3: thing I'll leave in this. You want to know how

566
00:28:01,920 --> 00:28:04,800
Speaker 3: important Danny Stutsman is. He has an eight point five

567
00:28:04,840 --> 00:28:07,959
Speaker 3: percent miss tackle rate. Right If you look at all

568
00:28:07,960 --> 00:28:12,879
Speaker 3: the leading tacklers out of the Oklahoma defense, linebacker Jaron Cannick, safety,

569
00:28:12,880 --> 00:28:16,320
Speaker 3: Billy Bowman Junior, a couple of others, they have missed

570
00:28:16,359 --> 00:28:20,640
Speaker 3: more than twenty five percent of tackles. It is unbelievable

571
00:28:20,680 --> 00:28:23,720
Speaker 3: how bad this defense is at missed tackles. The one

572
00:28:23,760 --> 00:28:27,520
Speaker 3: who's not Danny Stutsman. To me, Danny Stutsman is the

573
00:28:27,560 --> 00:28:31,280
Speaker 3: most important linebacker to a point spread in recent history

574
00:28:31,280 --> 00:28:33,520
Speaker 3: that I could ever think of. So, yeah, the bets

575
00:28:33,520 --> 00:28:36,520
Speaker 3: center in Oklahoma State, Stutsman means everything in the world

576
00:28:36,520 --> 00:28:37,679
Speaker 3: to whether I let this ride.

577
00:28:38,120 --> 00:28:40,160
Speaker 2: Yeah, he just makes so many plays them behind the

578
00:28:40,160 --> 00:28:43,840
Speaker 2: line of scrimmage, twos all over the field and is

579
00:28:43,880 --> 00:28:46,960
Speaker 2: the quarterback of that defense. Let's stay in the Big Twelve.

580
00:28:47,320 --> 00:28:50,280
Speaker 2: Let's head down to Austin the Big twelve standings right now,

581
00:28:50,560 --> 00:28:53,800
Speaker 2: five teams tied at the top of the leaderboard at

582
00:28:53,840 --> 00:28:57,080
Speaker 2: four and one. Just talk about Oklahoma, Oklahoma Oklahoma State.

583
00:28:57,120 --> 00:28:58,600
Speaker 2: One of those teams will be knocked from the top.

584
00:29:00,000 --> 00:29:01,520
Speaker 2: I was State, who, by the way, I think beats

585
00:29:01,560 --> 00:29:04,960
Speaker 2: Kansas could spot under a field goal. They're in first place. Somehow,

586
00:29:05,920 --> 00:29:08,480
Speaker 2: their offense has really turned around, similar to Oklahoma State.

587
00:29:08,680 --> 00:29:11,800
Speaker 2: Really young group that is jailed at the right time.

588
00:29:11,880 --> 00:29:14,719
Speaker 2: Tough spot for Kansas here off that big win, and

589
00:29:14,960 --> 00:29:17,080
Speaker 2: I think the guy with State defense will step up. But

590
00:29:17,920 --> 00:29:19,960
Speaker 2: elsewhere so I think I was SATs could get first

591
00:29:19,960 --> 00:29:23,040
Speaker 2: place along with the winner of Oklahoma Oklahoma State and

592
00:29:23,040 --> 00:29:27,160
Speaker 2: then the winner of Texas Kansas State. Texas will once

593
00:29:27,200 --> 00:29:31,240
Speaker 2: again start Malik Murphy at quarterback. It's very hard for

594
00:29:31,240 --> 00:29:33,000
Speaker 2: me to get a read on this. Kansas State defense

595
00:29:33,480 --> 00:29:35,000
Speaker 2: kind of got carved up a little bit against a

596
00:29:35,000 --> 00:29:38,560
Speaker 2: really good Missouri offense. They shut down Houston just completely

597
00:29:38,600 --> 00:29:41,600
Speaker 2: dominant last week. But Houston just has these efforts where

598
00:29:41,640 --> 00:29:44,880
Speaker 2: you'd never know it's Dana. They played a lot of

599
00:29:45,000 --> 00:29:46,760
Speaker 2: other backup quarterbacks, so it's hard for me to get

600
00:29:46,760 --> 00:29:48,360
Speaker 2: a read on the defense. I don't think it's an

601
00:29:48,360 --> 00:29:50,640
Speaker 2: elite unit by any but I'm not sure Malik Murphy

602
00:29:50,640 --> 00:29:54,880
Speaker 2: could take advantage last week underwhelming performance. He was efficient

603
00:29:54,920 --> 00:29:58,240
Speaker 2: at times, it wasn't really throwing deep that much. He

604
00:29:58,320 --> 00:30:01,480
Speaker 2: had a pick where there was an miscommunication like what

605
00:30:01,480 --> 00:30:03,640
Speaker 2: you would expect from the inexperienced quarterback. There was a

606
00:30:03,640 --> 00:30:06,320
Speaker 2: miscommunication on a rush snap and you should have thrown

607
00:30:06,360 --> 00:30:08,480
Speaker 2: it away around with it. He also had a fumble

608
00:30:08,560 --> 00:30:10,800
Speaker 2: when you know a running back and office line around

609
00:30:10,840 --> 00:30:12,200
Speaker 2: knew each other. Wasn't all his fault. But these are

610
00:30:12,200 --> 00:30:14,480
Speaker 2: the mistakes you're going to get. And they weren't really

611
00:30:14,480 --> 00:30:16,360
Speaker 2: taking They weren't really taking shots down field. Maybe that's

612
00:30:16,360 --> 00:30:18,280
Speaker 2: just because they were playing Uyu, but I mean, if

613
00:30:18,320 --> 00:30:21,160
Speaker 2: you just look at the routree of Worthy, nothing was

614
00:30:21,200 --> 00:30:25,440
Speaker 2: downfield at all. Everything was dink and dunk, So it's

615
00:30:25,480 --> 00:30:27,600
Speaker 2: hard for me to get a read on what Murphy is.

616
00:30:27,640 --> 00:30:29,360
Speaker 2: He is a great he's a rocket arm, a lot

617
00:30:29,360 --> 00:30:31,760
Speaker 2: of touch, but you're gonna get some mistakes here. Kansas State,

618
00:30:31,800 --> 00:30:33,160
Speaker 2: on the other hand, they want to run the ball.

619
00:30:33,600 --> 00:30:36,120
Speaker 2: It's what they want to do, and I'm not sure

620
00:30:36,120 --> 00:30:37,440
Speaker 2: they're gonna be able to run it on Texas As.

621
00:30:37,480 --> 00:30:41,680
Speaker 2: Texas t is legit this one. This is tough for

622
00:30:41,720 --> 00:30:44,560
Speaker 2: me at Kansas State. It's a jugger out there, a

623
00:30:44,720 --> 00:30:47,560
Speaker 2: rolling of late, but they benefited from from some backup cornerbacks,

624
00:30:47,920 --> 00:30:50,680
Speaker 2: some good matchups, and then now you get another backup

625
00:30:50,760 --> 00:30:54,000
Speaker 2: quarterback with Texas. Texas, by the way, is a four

626
00:30:54,000 --> 00:30:56,000
Speaker 2: point favorite over under forty nine and a half. What

627
00:30:56,040 --> 00:30:56,600
Speaker 2: do you see here?

628
00:30:58,080 --> 00:31:01,760
Speaker 3: This one was a Texas Kansas State first half under

629
00:31:02,040 --> 00:31:05,000
Speaker 3: and a slight lean to Kansas State here. So let's

630
00:31:05,000 --> 00:31:07,520
Speaker 3: talk about the Texas offense. First. Will scoring points be

631
00:31:07,600 --> 00:31:10,520
Speaker 3: an issue and it really has been all year. Texas

632
00:31:10,760 --> 00:31:13,400
Speaker 3: averages three point nine points on drives to go past

633
00:31:13,440 --> 00:31:16,360
Speaker 3: the forty. Then it gets scary. I tweeted this out

634
00:31:16,400 --> 00:31:18,040
Speaker 3: earlier in the week and people couldn't believe it. They're

635
00:31:18,040 --> 00:31:21,760
Speaker 3: one hundred and twentieth in red zone touchdown scoring. For

636
00:31:21,840 --> 00:31:23,800
Speaker 3: all the things that Sarkez and I love them, please

637
00:31:23,840 --> 00:31:26,880
Speaker 3: don't unfollow me on Twitter. You're not doing too well

638
00:31:27,440 --> 00:31:30,480
Speaker 3: in the red zone. One hundred and twentieth and TD percentage.

639
00:31:30,480 --> 00:31:32,160
Speaker 3: That is not going to hold up against the Kansas

640
00:31:32,200 --> 00:31:35,280
Speaker 3: State defense. It's third nationally in defensive red zone TD rate.

641
00:31:36,000 --> 00:31:37,479
Speaker 3: A lot of field goals is what I see here,

642
00:31:37,520 --> 00:31:40,320
Speaker 3: Maybe some stops. Malike Murphy saw a lot of Cover

643
00:31:40,360 --> 00:31:43,240
Speaker 3: one and Cover three against a very poor BYU defense.

644
00:31:43,600 --> 00:31:45,120
Speaker 3: I'm not sure how much we take away from that,

645
00:31:45,120 --> 00:31:47,360
Speaker 3: but Kansas State doesn't run cover one and cover three.

646
00:31:47,440 --> 00:31:52,680
Speaker 3: They run strictly quarters and they run that for a

647
00:31:52,800 --> 00:31:55,400
Speaker 3: very good reason. Especially this week. You're gonna get double

648
00:31:55,440 --> 00:31:57,840
Speaker 3: teams on Mitchell and Worthy while they're gonna have a

649
00:31:57,920 --> 00:31:59,800
Speaker 3: light box, and they're gonna dare Texas to run the

650
00:31:59,800 --> 00:32:02,520
Speaker 3: ball well. Now, Murphy had an adjust a completion rate

651
00:32:02,960 --> 00:32:06,480
Speaker 3: drop of thirty percent when he had pressure last week.

652
00:32:06,840 --> 00:32:09,280
Speaker 3: That's expected, right, I mean, brand new first game as

653
00:32:09,280 --> 00:32:13,360
Speaker 3: a starter joke, Joe Landervin sends blitz on thirty one

654
00:32:13,360 --> 00:32:16,760
Speaker 3: percent of defensive snaps. They're coming after Malik Murphy. I

655
00:32:16,800 --> 00:32:18,840
Speaker 3: think everybody else saw that when he has pressure, he

656
00:32:19,480 --> 00:32:21,440
Speaker 3: tends to try to throw a fast ball as fast

657
00:32:21,480 --> 00:32:23,120
Speaker 3: as he can. So that's probably going to be the

658
00:32:23,120 --> 00:32:25,640
Speaker 3: game plan. We'll see how it works on the other

659
00:32:25,680 --> 00:32:27,600
Speaker 3: side of the ball. This is where things got interesting.

660
00:32:27,680 --> 00:32:30,600
Speaker 3: Can Texas's defense stopped the Kansas State rush because everybody

661
00:32:30,600 --> 00:32:33,560
Speaker 3: knows Texas front seven did a great job against Alabama.

662
00:32:33,800 --> 00:32:36,240
Speaker 3: They're one of the best rush defenders in all of

663
00:32:36,280 --> 00:32:40,640
Speaker 3: the nation. They've been dominant against outside zone. Kansas State

664
00:32:40,680 --> 00:32:44,320
Speaker 3: doesn't run outside zone. Kansas State runs pure inside zone.

665
00:32:44,360 --> 00:32:47,240
Speaker 3: They run almost everything butt it. They run inside zone,

666
00:32:47,400 --> 00:32:52,640
Speaker 3: man blocking schemes, power polling, offensive lineman, and counter. Texas

667
00:32:52,640 --> 00:32:57,560
Speaker 3: defense has middling success or zero experience against these run concepts.

668
00:32:57,560 --> 00:33:01,280
Speaker 3: They have almost zero experience against teams that use linemen

669
00:33:01,320 --> 00:33:04,200
Speaker 3: that pull and against counter. So I'm like, it's like

670
00:33:04,280 --> 00:33:06,160
Speaker 3: this black hole where I don't know what's going to

671
00:33:06,200 --> 00:33:08,520
Speaker 3: happen because Texas front seven is really good, but they

672
00:33:08,520 --> 00:33:12,280
Speaker 3: have not seen these kind of run concepts before. Plus,

673
00:33:12,440 --> 00:33:14,960
Speaker 3: let's add on to the fact that the few of

674
00:33:15,040 --> 00:33:18,920
Speaker 3: these rush run concept types that they've seen have come

675
00:33:18,960 --> 00:33:22,120
Speaker 3: out of eleven personnel. Kansas State doesn't run eleven personnel

676
00:33:22,120 --> 00:33:25,240
Speaker 3: with this stuff. They run twenty two, twenty one, and twelve.

677
00:33:25,240 --> 00:33:26,840
Speaker 3: There's a lot of tight ends, there's a lot of

678
00:33:26,920 --> 00:33:29,360
Speaker 3: running backs, and you have mobile quarterbacks that can run

679
00:33:29,360 --> 00:33:32,240
Speaker 3: it two. So what I see in this game low

680
00:33:32,280 --> 00:33:34,800
Speaker 3: scoring start. Murphy's going to see quarters for the first

681
00:33:34,840 --> 00:33:37,440
Speaker 3: time ever. Kansas State is going to run a bevy

682
00:33:37,440 --> 00:33:40,360
Speaker 3: of run concepts that they that Texas defense is just

683
00:33:40,400 --> 00:33:41,760
Speaker 3: I don't know if they're going to move with the motion.

684
00:33:41,800 --> 00:33:43,080
Speaker 3: I don't know if they're going to follow both tight.

685
00:33:43,200 --> 00:33:44,760
Speaker 3: I don't know what they're going to do. I mean,

686
00:33:44,760 --> 00:33:47,120
Speaker 3: they're athletic enough to keep up, but it's a lot

687
00:33:47,120 --> 00:33:49,640
Speaker 3: to handle. So I see a very low scoring through

688
00:33:49,640 --> 00:33:53,600
Speaker 3: the first few scripted drives of the game. I suspect

689
00:33:53,600 --> 00:33:56,040
Speaker 3: there will be adjustments between Climben and Sark and the

690
00:33:56,160 --> 00:33:58,720
Speaker 3: entire game, but Kansas State's advantage and running the ball

691
00:33:58,960 --> 00:34:02,000
Speaker 3: along with flashing quarter Murphy has me on Kansas State.

692
00:34:02,240 --> 00:34:04,160
Speaker 3: It's not a huge play, but I'm on Kansas State

693
00:34:04,160 --> 00:34:04,680
Speaker 3: in this game.

694
00:34:05,280 --> 00:34:07,160
Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't mind the under here. I might dabble

695
00:34:07,200 --> 00:34:09,880
Speaker 2: there as well, and we'll be rooting for Texas for

696
00:34:11,160 --> 00:34:14,839
Speaker 2: or Big twelve futures, hopefully for your sake Texas by three.

697
00:34:14,880 --> 00:34:16,320
Speaker 2: That works. I think this is going to be a

698
00:34:16,360 --> 00:34:18,480
Speaker 2: lower scoring game. Let's go to the SEC.

699
00:34:19,520 --> 00:34:22,800
Speaker 3: Just a good old friendly expression from the Deep South.

700
00:34:23,280 --> 00:34:25,400
Speaker 3: Bye and hurry back.

701
00:34:25,800 --> 00:34:28,840
Speaker 2: LSU at Alabama, Oh boy, got a big one here

702
00:34:29,200 --> 00:34:34,879
Speaker 2: in prime time since it's the SEC Saturday night SCBs game,

703
00:34:35,080 --> 00:34:38,160
Speaker 2: the annual one Alabama three point favorite over under sixty

704
00:34:38,200 --> 00:34:40,879
Speaker 2: one and a half. Major injury news to lead off

705
00:34:40,880 --> 00:34:45,080
Speaker 2: with LSU. Their defense ravished by injuries. They're much maligned defense,

706
00:34:45,640 --> 00:34:50,960
Speaker 2: which if you remove games against Army Grambling, it's an

707
00:34:50,960 --> 00:34:54,480
Speaker 2: Auburn who can't throw it. It's bad. The past defense

708
00:34:54,560 --> 00:34:57,080
Speaker 2: is bad. You've been able. They're very talented and against

709
00:34:57,080 --> 00:34:58,719
Speaker 2: the teams of way more talented, they can't throw it.

710
00:34:58,719 --> 00:35:01,440
Speaker 2: They can stop obviously stop the run, but their defense

711
00:35:01,520 --> 00:35:04,120
Speaker 2: is major issues. And now you won't have Makai Wingo,

712
00:35:04,800 --> 00:35:07,360
Speaker 2: who is your best run stopper in the middle. Thirteen

713
00:35:07,400 --> 00:35:09,120
Speaker 2: All American last year he had surgeries out for the

714
00:35:09,120 --> 00:35:12,840
Speaker 2: rest of the season. You also look before the season,

715
00:35:12,840 --> 00:35:14,960
Speaker 2: Elis had to get a brand new secondary. They went

716
00:35:14,960 --> 00:35:17,680
Speaker 2: out and they got four transfer quarterbacks. They got JK.

717
00:35:17,800 --> 00:35:21,160
Speaker 2: Johnson out of Ohio State. He's in the Folly at

718
00:35:21,200 --> 00:35:26,799
Speaker 2: Surgery's out for the year. You got Tou's Chestnut, Denver, Harris, Zia, Alexander.

719
00:35:27,560 --> 00:35:29,560
Speaker 2: They're all out. Some of them are hurt, some of

720
00:35:29,600 --> 00:35:31,320
Speaker 2: them are in the doghouts with Brian Kelley and just

721
00:35:31,320 --> 00:35:37,839
Speaker 2: aren't gonna play. That's confirmed. The secondary is a mess.

722
00:35:37,920 --> 00:35:44,120
Speaker 2: The corner situation of this disaster Alabama injury situation. Marshal

723
00:35:44,160 --> 00:35:47,920
Speaker 2: their linebacker, he missed the Tennessee game. He's questionable. Terrence Ferguson,

724
00:35:48,360 --> 00:35:50,360
Speaker 2: he's missed over a month with an ankle spring not

725
00:35:50,400 --> 00:35:54,680
Speaker 2: a huge deal. And Tryon Arnold their corner. He practiced

726
00:35:54,680 --> 00:35:58,080
Speaker 2: after a concussion. I think he'll play. BAMA offensive line

727
00:35:58,080 --> 00:36:03,240
Speaker 2: hasn't been great. Yeah, Latham's a monster, but left tackle Proker,

728
00:36:03,280 --> 00:36:06,600
Speaker 2: he's young, he's been bad, bad, and they're center Seth

729
00:36:06,680 --> 00:36:09,759
Speaker 2: McLaughlin's he's really struggled. I don't really know what's going

730
00:36:09,800 --> 00:36:11,680
Speaker 2: on with him. He was really he was good last year.

731
00:36:12,000 --> 00:36:15,240
Speaker 2: He has snap issues, penalty issues. Is grades out poorly.

732
00:36:15,480 --> 00:36:18,319
Speaker 2: So the BAM offensive line has been great. That's why

733
00:36:18,600 --> 00:36:20,439
Speaker 2: you know they're allowing a ton of pressure, a ton

734
00:36:20,480 --> 00:36:22,680
Speaker 2: of there's a lot of misassignments, a ton of tackles

735
00:36:22,680 --> 00:36:25,640
Speaker 2: for loss. This this is really interesting in the LSU

736
00:36:25,719 --> 00:36:29,319
Speaker 2: offense is rolling and it's good on good against the

737
00:36:29,360 --> 00:36:33,680
Speaker 2: Alabama defense. But it's hard for me to see Alabama

738
00:36:33,719 --> 00:36:36,799
Speaker 2: completely shutting down this LSU offense, which is just on

739
00:36:36,840 --> 00:36:39,960
Speaker 2: another level right now. Now you go to the BAMA offense.

740
00:36:40,920 --> 00:36:43,680
Speaker 2: The way that I look at this is that with

741
00:36:43,760 --> 00:36:47,160
Speaker 2: the corner situation, I think you just have to, you know,

742
00:36:47,320 --> 00:36:50,320
Speaker 2: dare Alabama to run it. Hope you get some stops.

743
00:36:50,440 --> 00:36:52,319
Speaker 2: I hope you get some sacks, you know, because you

744
00:36:52,320 --> 00:36:56,480
Speaker 2: have some good pass rushers on third downs to get

745
00:36:56,520 --> 00:36:59,520
Speaker 2: them behind the chains. Because the one thing, the one

746
00:37:00,560 --> 00:37:02,160
Speaker 2: here how I see this planet I think else he's

747
00:37:02,160 --> 00:37:05,520
Speaker 2: gonna win this game. Just my sneaky suspicion. The line

748
00:37:05,560 --> 00:37:07,280
Speaker 2: is sharp though, like I was, one.

749
00:37:07,160 --> 00:37:07,680
Speaker 3: Of the best.

750
00:37:07,800 --> 00:37:12,000
Speaker 2: LSU probably throw them in a round robin. But out

751
00:37:12,040 --> 00:37:14,480
Speaker 2: on the money line, the line is very sharp here

752
00:37:14,480 --> 00:37:16,600
Speaker 2: at three. What I think is gonna happen is this

753
00:37:16,680 --> 00:37:20,399
Speaker 2: Alabama offense. I mean, look, it just goes into these

754
00:37:20,600 --> 00:37:23,600
Speaker 2: funks because mil Roe is so inconsistent. He's not the

755
00:37:23,600 --> 00:37:25,560
Speaker 2: type of quarterback it's gonna drop, drop back, pick you

756
00:37:25,600 --> 00:37:27,960
Speaker 2: apart and pick up bad secondary apart because he's just

757
00:37:28,000 --> 00:37:32,400
Speaker 2: too inaccurate, even maybe against LSU where there should be

758
00:37:32,400 --> 00:37:34,439
Speaker 2: guys wide open. And then he's gonna take a couple

759
00:37:34,440 --> 00:37:36,440
Speaker 2: of sacks right and then all of a sudden, you

760
00:37:36,440 --> 00:37:38,200
Speaker 2: know you're in third, your third and lungs. He takes

761
00:37:38,239 --> 00:37:41,640
Speaker 2: some sacks, this offense goes into just a shell and

762
00:37:41,880 --> 00:37:44,200
Speaker 2: a tanks for like a quarter or two. His deep ball,

763
00:37:44,239 --> 00:37:45,520
Speaker 2: he is one of the best deep ball passes in

764
00:37:45,520 --> 00:37:47,120
Speaker 2: Alabama history, one of the best de ball passes in

765
00:37:47,160 --> 00:37:49,600
Speaker 2: the country. He's gonna hit a couple of them. I

766
00:37:49,600 --> 00:37:52,360
Speaker 2: mean everyone is against LSU, so he's gonna hit some explosives.

767
00:37:52,360 --> 00:37:54,520
Speaker 2: I think Alabama have a ton of success running the ball,

768
00:37:54,560 --> 00:37:56,440
Speaker 2: but I think they're just gonna have even though I'll

769
00:37:56,440 --> 00:37:58,160
Speaker 2: see his defense is so bad. I think they're gonna

770
00:37:58,200 --> 00:38:01,520
Speaker 2: have these just lulls as they had all year, and

771
00:38:01,680 --> 00:38:03,440
Speaker 2: I don't think you can afford to do that against

772
00:38:03,840 --> 00:38:08,560
Speaker 2: LSU's offense. So there's major questions with this LSU defense.

773
00:38:09,600 --> 00:38:13,960
Speaker 2: But I don't know if Alabama's offense can consistently take advantage.

774
00:38:14,600 --> 00:38:16,920
Speaker 2: I'm curious see how else you plays this schematically, Like,

775
00:38:16,920 --> 00:38:20,000
Speaker 2: do they take away the run, try to cover Alabama,

776
00:38:20,360 --> 00:38:22,719
Speaker 2: you know, knowing you're gonna give up some explosives, but

777
00:38:23,160 --> 00:38:25,760
Speaker 2: knowing that you're probably gonna get some sacks and Miller

778
00:38:25,800 --> 00:38:27,920
Speaker 2: will be an accurate or you just sit back, let

779
00:38:28,000 --> 00:38:29,800
Speaker 2: Bama run it down, try to stop them in the

780
00:38:29,840 --> 00:38:31,719
Speaker 2: red zone, try to make a couple of plays by

781
00:38:31,760 --> 00:38:34,880
Speaker 2: the line of scrimmage. Very interesting chess match, which will

782
00:38:34,920 --> 00:38:38,240
Speaker 2: then determine the total how LSU plays it in my opinion,

783
00:38:38,520 --> 00:38:39,919
Speaker 2: but I think else who's gonna win? But the line

784
00:38:39,960 --> 00:38:41,680
Speaker 2: is very sharp. Probably thrown around Robin. What do you

785
00:38:41,680 --> 00:38:42,040
Speaker 2: see here?

786
00:38:43,000 --> 00:38:45,359
Speaker 3: I took m of minus three. My handicap, I think

787
00:38:45,440 --> 00:38:48,120
Speaker 3: is different than everybody else in the world. Both of

788
00:38:48,160 --> 00:38:50,080
Speaker 3: these all I mean, I know it's easy to sit

789
00:38:50,120 --> 00:38:53,000
Speaker 3: there and pick on the LSU defense, trust me. But

790
00:38:53,080 --> 00:38:57,120
Speaker 3: to me, these two offenses run the same thing with

791
00:38:57,239 --> 00:38:59,839
Speaker 3: the same type of quarterback principles. Both of them run

792
00:38:59,840 --> 00:39:03,640
Speaker 3: in side zone a heavy amount. It is about putting

793
00:39:03,680 --> 00:39:06,680
Speaker 3: the ball in the stomach of your running back, reading

794
00:39:06,719 --> 00:39:09,680
Speaker 3: the middle linebacker in the outside linebacker, and then making

795
00:39:09,680 --> 00:39:11,680
Speaker 3: a decision from there whether we're running the ball or

796
00:39:11,800 --> 00:39:14,799
Speaker 3: hitting a slant. That is where my handicap started, and

797
00:39:14,840 --> 00:39:18,000
Speaker 3: it led me to Alabama. So Alabama defends inside zone

798
00:39:18,560 --> 00:39:21,600
Speaker 3: at a fifty nine percent success rate with a NEGATIVEVPA.

799
00:39:22,520 --> 00:39:24,920
Speaker 3: They're having a ton of success. Fifty nine percent is

800
00:39:24,960 --> 00:39:27,680
Speaker 3: really good, fifty three percent being national average. They don't

801
00:39:27,719 --> 00:39:29,960
Speaker 3: have a lot of explosiveness with it, except when Milroe

802
00:39:29,960 --> 00:39:32,480
Speaker 3: pulls it back and decides to throw over twenty yards

803
00:39:32,640 --> 00:39:35,440
Speaker 3: where I can't believe I'm even reading this. Alabama's fifth

804
00:39:35,480 --> 00:39:38,640
Speaker 3: and pass explosives in the nation. Pretty impressive. But let's

805
00:39:38,640 --> 00:39:41,960
Speaker 3: start off with LSU running inside zone with Jaden Daniels. Now,

806
00:39:42,000 --> 00:39:44,359
Speaker 3: Alabama defends it at a fifty nine percent success rate,

807
00:39:44,360 --> 00:39:46,560
Speaker 3: which is extremely high, and they leave opponents with a

808
00:39:46,680 --> 00:39:49,759
Speaker 3: negative VPA. So if Jaden Daniels is not able to

809
00:39:49,880 --> 00:39:52,560
Speaker 3: run inside zone, he's going to pull it back, and

810
00:39:52,600 --> 00:39:55,080
Speaker 3: who's he going to look for? Malik Neighbors on the

811
00:39:55,080 --> 00:39:59,360
Speaker 3: slant immediately. Now, Alabama is tenth nationally and preventing rush explosives,

812
00:39:59,400 --> 00:40:00,759
Speaker 3: so I don't exp anything to come out of the

813
00:40:00,800 --> 00:40:02,960
Speaker 3: run game, but you have to focus on who's going

814
00:40:03,000 --> 00:40:05,520
Speaker 3: to guard Elik Neighbors. Now we mentioned Terry and Arnold.

815
00:40:05,560 --> 00:40:09,120
Speaker 3: He's cleared concussion protocol last week to start practices. We

816
00:40:09,160 --> 00:40:10,640
Speaker 3: assume that he's going to play in this game. But

817
00:40:10,680 --> 00:40:14,799
Speaker 3: Malachi Moore also highly ranked and slot coverage. So Terry

818
00:40:14,800 --> 00:40:17,279
Speaker 3: and Arnold Malachai Moore, they play slot coverage, That's who's

819
00:40:17,280 --> 00:40:19,280
Speaker 3: going to be on eliite neighbors. Both of them rank

820
00:40:19,640 --> 00:40:22,239
Speaker 3: within the top one hundred of slot corners in all

821
00:40:22,280 --> 00:40:25,160
Speaker 3: of PFF. So Alabama I think has got it covered.

822
00:40:25,480 --> 00:40:29,520
Speaker 3: They're considered the number one graded coverage team of all PFF.

823
00:40:29,760 --> 00:40:31,960
Speaker 3: They've got in the slot corners to handle neighbors, and

824
00:40:31,960 --> 00:40:34,160
Speaker 3: they have a fifty nine percent success rate in defending

825
00:40:34,160 --> 00:40:36,360
Speaker 3: inside zone with Jayden Daniels, So I feel comfortable on

826
00:40:36,360 --> 00:40:39,280
Speaker 3: that side for Alabama. When you go to LSU's defense,

827
00:40:39,680 --> 00:40:43,840
Speaker 3: completely different story. Forty four percent success rate in defending

828
00:40:43,880 --> 00:40:48,480
Speaker 3: inside zone. That is terrible. PFF ranks Bama's offensive line,

829
00:40:48,520 --> 00:40:49,719
Speaker 3: and I know that you just talked about some of

830
00:40:49,760 --> 00:40:52,640
Speaker 3: the inconsistencies they have. They definitely have inconsistencies when it

831
00:40:52,680 --> 00:40:57,440
Speaker 3: comes to stopping a pass rush, but PFF grades their

832
00:40:57,440 --> 00:40:59,600
Speaker 3: offensive line is eighth and run blocking and a lot

833
00:40:59,600 --> 00:41:02,000
Speaker 3: of that has to do with inside zone. Milroe has

834
00:41:02,000 --> 00:41:05,080
Speaker 3: been hitting explosives with his hot read fifth and pass

835
00:41:05,120 --> 00:41:09,000
Speaker 3: epa Isaiah Bond, Kobe Prentis Jermaine Burden are all over

836
00:41:09,040 --> 00:41:12,719
Speaker 3: two yards per route run Milrow believe it or not,

837
00:41:13,200 --> 00:41:17,040
Speaker 3: seventeen big time throws, ten touchdowns on the season, zero

838
00:41:17,239 --> 00:41:22,239
Speaker 3: interceptions on throws beyond twenty yards. LSU does not have.

839
00:41:22,480 --> 00:41:24,600
Speaker 2: I don't think he even has a new turnover realthy

840
00:41:24,640 --> 00:41:25,840
Speaker 2: throws on this either.

841
00:41:26,680 --> 00:41:29,080
Speaker 3: LSU does not have a single I talked about Terry

842
00:41:29,160 --> 00:41:31,840
Speaker 3: Arnold and Malachi Moore being highly graded in slot corner

843
00:41:31,840 --> 00:41:35,120
Speaker 3: coverage for Alabama, LSU doesn't have a single safety or

844
00:41:35,200 --> 00:41:38,640
Speaker 3: cornerback in the top two hundred of PFF grading. So

845
00:41:38,680 --> 00:41:40,840
Speaker 3: to me, this comes down to who can defend inside

846
00:41:40,920 --> 00:41:44,279
Speaker 3: zone better. It's Alabama. Who can defend the slot coverage better,

847
00:41:44,360 --> 00:41:47,920
Speaker 3: especially with Mileague neighbors. That's Alabama. I'm gonna play Alabama.

848
00:41:47,960 --> 00:41:49,600
Speaker 3: By the way. I got a big special team's advantage

849
00:41:49,600 --> 00:41:52,320
Speaker 3: here too, so maybe that comes into play with punts

850
00:41:52,360 --> 00:41:55,600
Speaker 3: and field position whatever, but I'm going to back Alabama here.

851
00:41:56,120 --> 00:41:59,120
Speaker 2: I hope Alabama rolls, gets their revenge and I can

852
00:41:59,160 --> 00:42:01,920
Speaker 2: back my cats and double digit dogs at home next

853
00:42:01,960 --> 00:42:02,800
Speaker 2: week in a good spot.

854
00:42:03,080 --> 00:42:04,480
Speaker 3: If LSU wins, I have to go out in the

855
00:42:04,520 --> 00:42:06,920
Speaker 3: backyard and pull up that LSU National Championship ticket I

856
00:42:06,960 --> 00:42:09,880
Speaker 3: bought last January. See if it's got some got some legs.

857
00:42:10,440 --> 00:42:12,440
Speaker 2: You're covering all your bases here. I'll down that and

858
00:42:12,480 --> 00:42:14,680
Speaker 2: then you can bring out if they lose. If that loses,

859
00:42:14,680 --> 00:42:16,600
Speaker 2: you can bring out your LSU ticket. Dig it up

860
00:42:16,600 --> 00:42:19,080
Speaker 2: out of the ground. Should be a good one in

861
00:42:19,120 --> 00:42:21,520
Speaker 2: a great atmosphere before we get to the final marquee

862
00:42:21,520 --> 00:42:24,040
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00:43:29,800 --> 00:43:33,080
Speaker 2: manscapes les we wonder our last Marque game of the day,

883
00:43:33,360 --> 00:43:39,360
Speaker 2: Prime time USC will host Washington. Have some bad news.

884
00:43:39,400 --> 00:43:42,799
Speaker 2: People I played USC, I went back. I went back

885
00:43:42,840 --> 00:43:47,000
Speaker 2: to my roots last week and we've back to the

886
00:43:47,120 --> 00:43:48,040
Speaker 2: USC fade train.

887
00:43:48,680 --> 00:43:49,200
Speaker 3: It worked.

888
00:43:49,320 --> 00:43:52,120
Speaker 2: They almost lost. I swore them off. All I've been

889
00:43:52,120 --> 00:43:54,279
Speaker 2: doing is fade in them. I remember our USC call.

890
00:43:54,480 --> 00:43:56,239
Speaker 2: But I'm going back to the mirror played three and

891
00:43:56,280 --> 00:44:00,279
Speaker 2: a half. It's still played plus three. So when I

892
00:44:00,280 --> 00:44:03,279
Speaker 2: break this game down, there's a couple of things that

893
00:44:03,320 --> 00:44:06,800
Speaker 2: I say. I mean, look the Washington the Washington offense,

894
00:44:06,880 --> 00:44:09,279
Speaker 2: which isn't in the best rhythm right now. You have

895
00:44:09,320 --> 00:44:11,680
Speaker 2: injuries to McMillan, a couple other receivers, so you still

896
00:44:12,120 --> 00:44:14,280
Speaker 2: you just have your two stud receivers in the outside

897
00:44:14,320 --> 00:44:19,160
Speaker 2: penix and but there's just holes in this offense. You

898
00:44:19,239 --> 00:44:21,400
Speaker 2: can't run the ball at all. I mean you're talking

899
00:44:21,440 --> 00:44:23,800
Speaker 2: thirteen carries with thirteen yards against as I say, thirty

900
00:44:23,800 --> 00:44:26,880
Speaker 2: carriages with ninety yards against Stanford's run day. Can't run it.

901
00:44:27,000 --> 00:44:28,879
Speaker 2: They don't really run it anyway, but when they try,

902
00:44:28,920 --> 00:44:32,480
Speaker 2: they can't in tier offensive line. Major issues. So you

903
00:44:32,520 --> 00:44:35,440
Speaker 2: can get pressure up the middle, throw off that offense

904
00:44:35,480 --> 00:44:38,880
Speaker 2: and they can't run it. So the USC defense, like

905
00:44:39,200 --> 00:44:42,759
Speaker 2: it's a decent enough secondary and they have like some

906
00:44:42,800 --> 00:44:45,600
Speaker 2: pass rushers, they can't stop the run at all, Like

907
00:44:45,640 --> 00:44:49,120
Speaker 2: it can't tackle. It's a horrendous run day when Washington

908
00:44:49,120 --> 00:44:51,040
Speaker 2: has'talle run it against anybody, not even Stanford, and they

909
00:44:51,040 --> 00:44:53,040
Speaker 2: don't run it. So it's not the worst matchup for

910
00:44:53,040 --> 00:44:56,200
Speaker 2: the usc D. Is Washington going to score a lot, yes,

911
00:44:56,280 --> 00:44:59,000
Speaker 2: the total seventy eight, Of course it's the USC defense.

912
00:44:59,080 --> 00:45:02,600
Speaker 2: Washington gonna put up a chair points. But the usc

913
00:45:02,719 --> 00:45:04,240
Speaker 2: might be able to get like a couple of sacks

914
00:45:04,360 --> 00:45:07,919
Speaker 2: or just Encoverage a couple tips. And this Washington offense

915
00:45:07,960 --> 00:45:11,560
Speaker 2: hasn't been in great rhythm. My biggest concern for Washington

916
00:45:12,080 --> 00:45:13,520
Speaker 2: is on the other side of the ball. On defense,

917
00:45:14,280 --> 00:45:18,520
Speaker 2: this defense, you know the difference between Washington and like

918
00:45:18,520 --> 00:45:20,880
Speaker 2: some of the other lead programs, they don't depth on defense.

919
00:45:21,600 --> 00:45:24,400
Speaker 2: And one of their best defensive lineman, Tooley, he's been

920
00:45:24,400 --> 00:45:27,440
Speaker 2: out for a month. We'll see if he goes. Most importantly,

921
00:45:28,239 --> 00:45:32,240
Speaker 2: they lost a trio of safeties, you know, Asa Turner,

922
00:45:32,320 --> 00:45:36,000
Speaker 2: I've mentioned them in the past, Cam fab and Vince Nunneley.

923
00:45:36,840 --> 00:45:38,160
Speaker 2: I don't know if any of them are gonna go.

924
00:45:38,600 --> 00:45:41,000
Speaker 2: And once you're starting to get down to you know,

925
00:45:41,040 --> 00:45:43,279
Speaker 2: your third and fourth string safety on the other side

926
00:45:43,320 --> 00:45:46,440
Speaker 2: of Dom Hampton, who's not great in coverage, it's dicey

927
00:45:46,480 --> 00:45:48,640
Speaker 2: and the defense has really suffered. You saw it last week.

928
00:45:48,880 --> 00:45:51,279
Speaker 2: They allot five hundred yards to Stanford. They could have

929
00:45:51,360 --> 00:45:53,920
Speaker 2: lost that game. A week before, they should have lost

930
00:45:53,960 --> 00:45:55,960
Speaker 2: Arizona State of Ariazona state at a kicker, should have

931
00:45:56,040 --> 00:45:58,680
Speaker 2: lost to Oregon give up six hundred yards if not,

932
00:45:58,920 --> 00:46:00,839
Speaker 2: if now for Oregon going open three on fourth down,

933
00:46:01,280 --> 00:46:03,399
Speaker 2: what is the narrative Washington lost that game, They lost

934
00:46:03,400 --> 00:46:09,280
Speaker 2: Arizona status, they should have. I mean this line, it's

935
00:46:09,400 --> 00:46:12,320
Speaker 2: just crazy to me. This this bend don't but don't break.

936
00:46:12,560 --> 00:46:17,120
Speaker 2: Washington defense with these injuries, it's just sent this unit

937
00:46:17,160 --> 00:46:20,200
Speaker 2: to a tailspin. UFC still, by those betters, it's like

938
00:46:20,200 --> 00:46:22,399
Speaker 2: the number one offense in the country. They should score

939
00:46:22,440 --> 00:46:28,879
Speaker 2: it well. So there's just no reason why both these

940
00:46:28,880 --> 00:46:32,120
Speaker 2: teams can't match all night. So I'm gonna take the

941
00:46:32,120 --> 00:46:34,640
Speaker 2: three three and a half with the home team, and

942
00:46:34,680 --> 00:46:36,480
Speaker 2: I think the USC might actually be able to get

943
00:46:36,480 --> 00:46:39,759
Speaker 2: a couple of stops because Washington can't run it and

944
00:46:39,800 --> 00:46:42,759
Speaker 2: they don't really try to run it. So and this

945
00:46:42,800 --> 00:46:44,759
Speaker 2: is what the Pac twel does, It's cannibalizes itself. So

946
00:46:44,800 --> 00:46:47,839
Speaker 2: it's time for Washington to go to sleep. I think

947
00:46:47,880 --> 00:46:51,359
Speaker 2: the Trojans win, sadly, Yeah, back and fight on.

948
00:46:51,480 --> 00:46:54,319
Speaker 3: You agree, I bet it with you. I'm there. I'm

949
00:46:54,360 --> 00:46:56,920
Speaker 3: ashamed of myself and don't really want to give Lincoln

950
00:46:57,000 --> 00:46:59,000
Speaker 3: Riley and Caleb Williams a whole bunch of love after.

951
00:46:58,880 --> 00:47:01,000
Speaker 2: This Isadter win because the voice snails will be.

952
00:47:02,120 --> 00:47:07,359
Speaker 3: I'm listening Trojans. So I went on this little, like

953
00:47:07,480 --> 00:47:09,759
Speaker 3: two or three hour fact finding trip to find out

954
00:47:09,800 --> 00:47:11,840
Speaker 3: what the hell's going on with Washington in their offense,

955
00:47:11,960 --> 00:47:14,279
Speaker 3: Like why are they struggling against teams they should not

956
00:47:14,360 --> 00:47:16,839
Speaker 3: be struggling against So let's look at what's happened to

957
00:47:16,880 --> 00:47:20,240
Speaker 3: Washington recently. Oregon runs at a three three five, they switched

958
00:47:20,280 --> 00:47:23,920
Speaker 3: to a two four five cover one quarters. Washington only

959
00:47:23,960 --> 00:47:27,400
Speaker 3: gets two methodicals, but they're full of explosive drives. The

960
00:47:27,440 --> 00:47:30,040
Speaker 3: problem is they allowed Oregon seventy percent available yards, like

961
00:47:30,080 --> 00:47:31,680
Speaker 3: they were able to do whatever they wanted. Now we

962
00:47:31,719 --> 00:47:34,799
Speaker 3: get into two teams they should handily beat. Right, they

963
00:47:34,800 --> 00:47:39,760
Speaker 3: go up against Arizona State, who's running again, flips into

964
00:47:39,800 --> 00:47:43,920
Speaker 3: a two four five, runs cover three, cover one. Why

965
00:47:44,360 --> 00:47:47,279
Speaker 3: have no explosive drives? Washington has no explosive drives. They

966
00:47:47,320 --> 00:47:50,120
Speaker 3: record one methodical, they have four turnovers, and their average

967
00:47:50,120 --> 00:47:51,879
Speaker 3: distant is to go on third downs is eight point

968
00:47:51,960 --> 00:47:54,719
Speaker 3: one yards. Why because they refuse to run the ball

969
00:47:54,800 --> 00:47:59,160
Speaker 3: against a two man front shocking Stanford? What do they

970
00:47:59,239 --> 00:48:03,080
Speaker 3: run a two four five with quarters and cover three.

971
00:48:03,360 --> 00:48:08,800
Speaker 3: Washington logs zero methodicals, three explosive drives. They allowed Stanford

972
00:48:08,920 --> 00:48:12,759
Speaker 3: five points per trip past the forty yard line. So

973
00:48:12,840 --> 00:48:16,120
Speaker 3: what is the moral takeaway from all of that? Teams

974
00:48:16,120 --> 00:48:19,600
Speaker 3: are going two four five, showing two down linemen for

975
00:48:20,239 --> 00:48:24,160
Speaker 3: nine guys in the back and daring Washington to run,

976
00:48:24,200 --> 00:48:27,200
Speaker 3: and they won't run. And the thing is is Washington

977
00:48:27,239 --> 00:48:30,200
Speaker 3: their methodicals are gone. No more methodical drives. That is

978
00:48:30,280 --> 00:48:33,320
Speaker 3: a drive that has ten plays, at least ten plays.

979
00:48:33,640 --> 00:48:36,640
Speaker 3: They are eighth nationally in quality drives. It's the same thing,

980
00:48:36,800 --> 00:48:39,480
Speaker 3: quality and methodical drive whatever, it's the same thing. They're eighth.

981
00:48:40,040 --> 00:48:41,919
Speaker 3: You know how many methodical drives they've had in last

982
00:48:41,920 --> 00:48:45,440
Speaker 3: two weeks against Arizona State and Stanford One. You've had

983
00:48:45,480 --> 00:48:48,000
Speaker 3: twenty four possessions and you've had one methodical drive and

984
00:48:48,080 --> 00:48:51,600
Speaker 3: your top ten in the nation teams are I mean,

985
00:48:51,640 --> 00:48:53,880
Speaker 3: I've heard of loading the box. This is the opposite

986
00:48:53,880 --> 00:48:56,080
Speaker 3: of loading the box. And Washington doesn't care. We're just

987
00:48:56,080 --> 00:48:57,080
Speaker 3: gonna keep throwing into it.

988
00:48:57,760 --> 00:49:00,720
Speaker 2: So and then on third and longs are bringing pressure

989
00:49:00,800 --> 00:49:02,960
Speaker 2: up the middle because their on tier offensive line has

990
00:49:03,000 --> 00:49:05,359
Speaker 2: been so bad and that's hard to sustain. And then

991
00:49:05,360 --> 00:49:07,480
Speaker 2: you see the depth because they also miss McMillan. Now

992
00:49:07,520 --> 00:49:10,080
Speaker 2: like giving them the three heighted monster two things. It's

993
00:49:10,080 --> 00:49:12,560
Speaker 2: hard to keep getting third and longs. And then if

994
00:49:12,560 --> 00:49:14,640
Speaker 2: they get down to the red zone, there's gonna be

995
00:49:14,640 --> 00:49:17,120
Speaker 2: more issues now because you can't run it you're in

996
00:49:17,200 --> 00:49:19,120
Speaker 2: third and long. So if that's USC's path, I think

997
00:49:19,120 --> 00:49:20,680
Speaker 2: like it just might be a couple of field goals

998
00:49:20,680 --> 00:49:22,239
Speaker 2: to win this game, Like that's it, Like both these

999
00:49:22,280 --> 00:49:23,520
Speaker 2: offenses should move the ball.

1000
00:49:23,840 --> 00:49:26,400
Speaker 3: Yeah, I guess I'll give Kleb Williams some love. It

1001
00:49:26,400 --> 00:49:28,279
Speaker 3: looks like he's back on track the last two games,

1002
00:49:28,280 --> 00:49:30,560
Speaker 3: no matter what the results are on the scoreboard. He

1003
00:49:30,600 --> 00:49:32,719
Speaker 3: has eight big time throws and only two turnover worth

1004
00:49:32,719 --> 00:49:35,560
Speaker 3: he plays the last two games. So at least I

1005
00:49:35,640 --> 00:49:37,880
Speaker 3: don't know what he's playing for, right, but at least

1006
00:49:37,880 --> 00:49:38,359
Speaker 3: that's there.

1007
00:49:38,520 --> 00:49:42,120
Speaker 2: So, by the way, speaking of red zone and methodical drives,

1008
00:49:42,480 --> 00:49:44,080
Speaker 2: USC should be able to run it will.

1009
00:49:43,960 --> 00:49:45,479
Speaker 3: Which means we should be taking the under.

1010
00:49:45,600 --> 00:49:50,440
Speaker 2: But yeah, no, no, I'm not taking USC and a

1011
00:49:50,560 --> 00:49:54,800
Speaker 2: USC under. I'm already tortured enough. I mean, cal USC

1012
00:49:54,920 --> 00:49:56,200
Speaker 2: was fifty to forty nine.

1013
00:49:57,080 --> 00:49:59,960
Speaker 3: Somebody call in with the single game parlay on USC

1014
00:50:00,080 --> 00:50:01,839
Speaker 3: in the under and if it cashes, I mean, that's

1015
00:50:01,840 --> 00:50:03,840
Speaker 3: gotta be worth some merch, right.

1016
00:50:03,760 --> 00:50:06,799
Speaker 2: We'll get you some merch if you call into the voicemail. Yeah,

1017
00:50:06,840 --> 00:50:09,040
Speaker 2: so all right, we're both on I gotta say, what

1018
00:50:09,120 --> 00:50:11,560
Speaker 2: could possibly go wrong? Both those games at night are

1019
00:50:11,560 --> 00:50:14,680
Speaker 2: gonna be really fun to watch, all right. That'll do

1020
00:50:14,760 --> 00:50:18,640
Speaker 2: it for our mark key games. But we still have

1021
00:50:19,080 --> 00:50:21,880
Speaker 2: a lot to get to. But before we jump into

1022
00:50:22,040 --> 00:50:25,839
Speaker 2: rapid Fire, reminder that the NBA season is officially tipped off.

1023
00:50:25,880 --> 00:50:27,719
Speaker 2: So if you like betting the NBA, be sure to

1024
00:50:27,800 --> 00:50:32,399
Speaker 2: check out Buckets Action Networks Basketball Betting podcast with new

1025
00:50:32,440 --> 00:50:37,239
Speaker 2: episodes every single weekday this NBA season. That name again

1026
00:50:37,400 --> 00:50:41,239
Speaker 2: is Buckets Available wherever you like to listen. All right,

1027
00:50:41,280 --> 00:50:45,320
Speaker 2: let's get to rapid Fire. Let's start off with my Hogs.

1028
00:50:45,440 --> 00:50:49,759
Speaker 2: I love my Hogs this week plus six. I saw

1029
00:50:49,800 --> 00:50:52,880
Speaker 2: you were afraid of the Sunbelt Billy second Ff adjustments

1030
00:50:52,880 --> 00:50:54,399
Speaker 2: and getting out coach to my first half of whtle.

1031
00:50:54,440 --> 00:50:56,040
Speaker 2: You talk about that in a second, but look, this

1032
00:50:56,160 --> 00:50:58,560
Speaker 2: is an amazing spot Mark. It's all you fired. Danny

1033
00:50:58,600 --> 00:51:00,400
Speaker 2: Nose makes them off, You're gonna make them off in changes.

1034
00:51:00,400 --> 00:51:03,840
Speaker 2: I think Rockett Sanders it's gonna play. Is he gonna play?

1035
00:51:03,920 --> 00:51:04,160
Speaker 3: Yes?

1036
00:51:04,520 --> 00:51:06,239
Speaker 2: Yeah, Rocket Sanders is back. That will give a run

1037
00:51:06,239 --> 00:51:09,680
Speaker 2: game as had no life some juice. Florida's coming off

1038
00:51:09,680 --> 00:51:13,759
Speaker 2: that Georgia loss, big physical game, don't have their top linebacker.

1039
00:51:14,280 --> 00:51:18,239
Speaker 2: What's being overshadowed by the Arkansas? You know they've lost

1040
00:51:18,239 --> 00:51:20,000
Speaker 2: six in a row and some of their offensive, the

1041
00:51:20,000 --> 00:51:21,959
Speaker 2: neptitude under enos. You know, now you get an element

1042
00:51:22,000 --> 00:51:23,480
Speaker 2: of surprise, two weeks to work on it, you get

1043
00:51:23,480 --> 00:51:26,200
Speaker 2: your your you know, maybe the the number one back

1044
00:51:26,200 --> 00:51:28,560
Speaker 2: in next year's draft taken, you get him back healthy.

1045
00:51:29,400 --> 00:51:32,000
Speaker 2: But the defense has been really good, like really really good,

1046
00:51:32,040 --> 00:51:33,719
Speaker 2: but no one, like no one talks about it because

1047
00:51:33,719 --> 00:51:37,080
Speaker 2: they've been losing games and the offense has been bad.

1048
00:51:37,440 --> 00:51:39,839
Speaker 2: But I mean, look, they've lost six in a row,

1049
00:51:39,960 --> 00:51:43,080
Speaker 2: five or by one possession against the top five hard

1050
00:51:43,080 --> 00:51:45,640
Speaker 2: to schedule in the country, and they lost that in

1051
00:51:45,640 --> 00:51:48,040
Speaker 2: fluky fashion, one possession loss at the b YU in

1052
00:51:48,040 --> 00:51:50,960
Speaker 2: Misissippi State. Despite out gaining those opponents, they actually help

1053
00:51:51,000 --> 00:51:54,600
Speaker 2: both those opponents under five hundred combined yards. Defense was fine,

1054
00:51:54,719 --> 00:51:56,960
Speaker 2: a little fluky in both. But they lost on the

1055
00:51:57,040 --> 00:52:00,440
Speaker 2: road against LSU by one score Alabama and all mess

1056
00:52:00,680 --> 00:52:02,680
Speaker 2: like this seems been right there on the road with

1057
00:52:02,760 --> 00:52:06,279
Speaker 2: a ridiculous schedule. So I expect them to come out

1058
00:52:06,320 --> 00:52:08,880
Speaker 2: of spirit effort because guess what, a bull eligibility is

1059
00:52:08,880 --> 00:52:10,759
Speaker 2: still in play the rest of the scheduling, win win

1060
00:52:10,800 --> 00:52:14,160
Speaker 2: this game, all home games and winnable home games. Now Florida.

1061
00:52:14,320 --> 00:52:16,439
Speaker 2: After the Georgia game, they go to LSU next week

1062
00:52:16,480 --> 00:52:19,120
Speaker 2: Sandwichee noon kick. This is a sleepy spot for them.

1063
00:52:19,480 --> 00:52:22,680
Speaker 2: And my boy Sam Pittman seventeen and seven against the

1064
00:52:22,719 --> 00:52:26,040
Speaker 2: spread as an underdog seventy one percent, ten and three

1065
00:52:26,680 --> 00:52:29,360
Speaker 2: against the spread as an underdog on the road seventy

1066
00:52:29,440 --> 00:52:32,799
Speaker 2: seven percent. My Hogs, let's.

1067
00:52:32,560 --> 00:52:37,919
Speaker 3: Roll woo pig suy absolute dumpster fire, dumps for fire.

1068
00:52:37,960 --> 00:52:39,279
Speaker 3: I don't know how we win a game the rest

1069
00:52:39,320 --> 00:52:41,440
Speaker 3: of the year. Just blow a program up, give us

1070
00:52:41,440 --> 00:52:47,399
Speaker 3: a death sentence. Collins talking razorback football. Well, it's rapid fire,

1071
00:52:47,440 --> 00:52:49,480
Speaker 3: So I'll keep it quick here. If Arkansas is going

1072
00:52:49,520 --> 00:52:51,600
Speaker 3: to win this game cover this spread, then they're obviously

1073
00:52:51,600 --> 00:52:53,000
Speaker 3: gonna have to win the first half. And you know,

1074
00:52:53,080 --> 00:52:56,279
Speaker 3: Kinnygitan is gonna take over play calling from Dan, the

1075
00:52:56,360 --> 00:52:59,279
Speaker 3: now departed Fire dan Enos, and there's just gonna be

1076
00:52:59,280 --> 00:53:03,320
Speaker 3: a huge different. We're gonna roll back those Kendlebrills schemes.

1077
00:53:04,000 --> 00:53:06,719
Speaker 3: We're gonna go We're gonna you know, in twenty twenty three,

1078
00:53:06,760 --> 00:53:09,319
Speaker 3: they've been running thirty three percent of twelve. They're gonna

1079
00:53:09,400 --> 00:53:11,600
Speaker 3: roll that back to five percent like they did last year.

1080
00:53:11,600 --> 00:53:13,680
Speaker 3: The RPO is gonna get a boost by about ten

1081
00:53:13,680 --> 00:53:16,560
Speaker 3: percent passing routes. There's been no crossers this year. There's

1082
00:53:16,560 --> 00:53:18,040
Speaker 3: gonna be a ton of them this year. There's less

1083
00:53:18,040 --> 00:53:20,040
Speaker 3: slants this year. We're gonna get that back. But it

1084
00:53:20,120 --> 00:53:23,239
Speaker 3: really all comes down to kJ Jefferson running RPO and

1085
00:53:23,320 --> 00:53:25,839
Speaker 3: the fact that last year his release time was one

1086
00:53:25,920 --> 00:53:28,120
Speaker 3: point five to one point seventy five seconds. It was

1087
00:53:28,160 --> 00:53:31,839
Speaker 3: his highest success rate, his highest NFL rating. This year,

1088
00:53:32,440 --> 00:53:35,560
Speaker 3: two to three point twenty five seconds is his release time,

1089
00:53:35,640 --> 00:53:37,799
Speaker 3: and his NFL rating has been under eighty. You're gonna

1090
00:53:37,800 --> 00:53:41,839
Speaker 3: see Arkansas completely speeded up twenty nine seconds per play.

1091
00:53:42,000 --> 00:53:44,080
Speaker 3: That's gonna come back down to Brow's level of twenty

1092
00:53:44,080 --> 00:53:48,279
Speaker 3: three seconds per play. Less bulkier personnel, faster offense, more

1093
00:53:48,320 --> 00:53:52,400
Speaker 3: kJ running RPO. It's gonna work. Now. My problem is

1094
00:53:52,440 --> 00:53:56,439
Speaker 3: that it's not Sunbelt Billy that I'm worried about. It's

1095
00:53:56,440 --> 00:54:00,759
Speaker 3: Florida's defensive coordinator, Austin Armstrong against inner emoci. I mean,

1096
00:54:00,960 --> 00:54:03,319
Speaker 3: Guidan's been the wide receivers coacher since twenty twenty one.

1097
00:54:03,360 --> 00:54:05,839
Speaker 3: He knows the Brill system. He's, you know, the one

1098
00:54:05,840 --> 00:54:09,160
Speaker 3: that personally coached Traylon Burks, but he's never called plays

1099
00:54:09,200 --> 00:54:12,840
Speaker 3: in his life. I can't imagine Arkansas, who is just

1100
00:54:13,000 --> 00:54:15,359
Speaker 3: guiding and Pittman in that locker room at halftime is

1101
00:54:15,400 --> 00:54:20,719
Speaker 3: making huge adjustments. I do see Armstrong make monster adjustments.

1102
00:54:20,760 --> 00:54:23,759
Speaker 3: Florida has given up four touchdowns the entire season in

1103
00:54:23,800 --> 00:54:27,520
Speaker 3: the third quarter. That worries me. So if Argansa is

1104
00:54:27,520 --> 00:54:28,880
Speaker 3: gonna win this and they're gonna cover this like we

1105
00:54:28,920 --> 00:54:31,040
Speaker 3: think they are. They've never won a Gainsville before, by

1106
00:54:31,080 --> 00:54:34,040
Speaker 3: the way, and Arkansas was playing for Pride Bowl chances.

1107
00:54:34,040 --> 00:54:37,640
Speaker 3: Sam Pittman's job everything they're gonna bring in the first half,

1108
00:54:37,680 --> 00:54:39,120
Speaker 3: So I'm betting Arkansas first half.

1109
00:54:39,760 --> 00:54:43,960
Speaker 2: Oo Pig Suey, woo woo ooo Pig Suey. All right.

1110
00:54:44,120 --> 00:54:47,960
Speaker 2: Notre Dame at Clemson. I mean everyone hated me before

1111
00:54:48,600 --> 00:54:53,359
Speaker 2: backing Lincoln Riley. I love Clemson. Here back in Davosweeney,

1112
00:54:53,440 --> 00:54:54,640
Speaker 2: this is my nightmare.

1113
00:54:55,440 --> 00:54:57,719
Speaker 1: It was big wild j bring your own guns and

1114
00:54:57,880 --> 00:54:58,719
Speaker 1: night passed some death.

1115
00:54:59,160 --> 00:55:01,319
Speaker 2: I played Clemson plus three out of m plus three?

1116
00:55:01,480 --> 00:55:04,200
Speaker 3: What week is this? Usc Clemson? Like, what are we

1117
00:55:04,239 --> 00:55:05,600
Speaker 3: gonna do this on Saturday show?

1118
00:55:05,840 --> 00:55:08,680
Speaker 2: Like this is yeah, it's bad, but this is this lot.

1119
00:55:08,800 --> 00:55:11,840
Speaker 2: Look Clemson, they've been a master four and four Dabo

1120
00:55:11,880 --> 00:55:14,000
Speaker 2: who's been a clown in the media over the past

1121
00:55:14,040 --> 00:55:16,319
Speaker 2: few weeks, and their team is taking a step back.

1122
00:55:16,480 --> 00:55:18,440
Speaker 2: Is what he does in the transport blah blah blah.

1123
00:55:18,560 --> 00:55:21,040
Speaker 1: You can have all your opinions that you want, all right.

1124
00:55:21,120 --> 00:55:23,400
Speaker 1: I don't know how old you are, but let me

1125
00:55:23,400 --> 00:55:25,880
Speaker 1: tell you something. You're part of the problem. It's people

1126
00:55:25,960 --> 00:55:30,040
Speaker 1: like you. The expectation is greater than the appreciation, and

1127
00:55:30,080 --> 00:55:30,920
Speaker 1: that's the problem.

1128
00:55:31,040 --> 00:55:32,360
Speaker 2: He came out, he said we would be eight to

1129
00:55:32,400 --> 00:55:36,400
Speaker 2: zero with fumble luck. He's not totally off base. This

1130
00:55:36,440 --> 00:55:38,839
Speaker 2: team isn't as good, but they lost to Florida State

1131
00:55:38,880 --> 00:55:41,239
Speaker 2: in overtime. They out gained them four twenty nine to

1132
00:55:41,239 --> 00:55:43,520
Speaker 2: three eleven. By the way, Florida State is undefeated in

1133
00:55:43,520 --> 00:55:46,600
Speaker 2: the Collegewall playoff, was a two point favorite at Clemson,

1134
00:55:47,160 --> 00:55:49,239
Speaker 2: and now Notre Dame is a three to three and

1135
00:55:49,239 --> 00:55:52,759
Speaker 2: a half point favorite. No please, They also lost an

1136
00:55:52,760 --> 00:55:53,560
Speaker 2: overtime to Miami.

1137
00:55:54,080 --> 00:55:56,839
Speaker 1: Is this a bad year? Is this a yeah? And

1138
00:55:56,880 --> 00:56:00,759
Speaker 1: this is my responsibility take one hundred percent responsibilit But

1139
00:56:00,880 --> 00:56:04,439
Speaker 1: all this bull crap you're thinking, all these narratives you read. Listen, man,

1140
00:56:04,480 --> 00:56:06,680
Speaker 1: you can have your opinion all you won't and you

1141
00:56:06,719 --> 00:56:09,239
Speaker 1: can apply for the job, and good luck to you,

1142
00:56:09,520 --> 00:56:09,839
Speaker 1: all right.

1143
00:56:10,320 --> 00:56:12,480
Speaker 2: In their four losses, they've gone two of seven on

1144
00:56:12,560 --> 00:56:15,200
Speaker 2: fourth down with a negative six turnover margin, gave up

1145
00:56:15,200 --> 00:56:18,680
Speaker 2: two defensive touchdowns, had crucial miss field goals, and they've

1146
00:56:18,680 --> 00:56:21,680
Speaker 2: lost the most fumbles in the country. They've also been

1147
00:56:21,680 --> 00:56:23,839
Speaker 2: at bottom ten offense in the red zone. Notre Dame

1148
00:56:23,880 --> 00:56:25,440
Speaker 2: has been Their defense have been very good in the

1149
00:56:25,480 --> 00:56:28,680
Speaker 2: red zone. Could be some regression there will Shipley's probably

1150
00:56:28,680 --> 00:56:31,640
Speaker 2: after Clemson. It's a good thing. Give MafA the ball

1151
00:56:32,080 --> 00:56:35,200
Speaker 2: more like I mean, Mafa's been way better. I mean,

1152
00:56:35,200 --> 00:56:37,560
Speaker 2: if you look, he's averaging six yards per carry, Shipley

1153
00:56:37,560 --> 00:56:40,200
Speaker 2: four point six, one and a half more yards per

1154
00:56:40,200 --> 00:56:45,239
Speaker 2: carry after contact for MafA. How about explosiveness breakaway run

1155
00:56:45,320 --> 00:56:48,359
Speaker 2: rate MafA sixty percent, Shipley thirty three percent. I don't

1156
00:56:48,360 --> 00:56:50,440
Speaker 2: know why they keep giving Shipley the ball, especially in

1157
00:56:50,440 --> 00:56:53,200
Speaker 2: the red zone. So I think that's just giving MafA

1158
00:56:53,239 --> 00:56:56,239
Speaker 2: more carries. MafA is also a better pass blocker, so

1159
00:56:56,520 --> 00:56:59,200
Speaker 2: MafA more snaps is a good thing for the offense. Meanwhile,

1160
00:56:59,320 --> 00:57:01,120
Speaker 2: Notre Dame, they lost Mitchell Evans.

1161
00:57:01,160 --> 00:57:01,640
Speaker 3: That's big.

1162
00:57:01,719 --> 00:57:04,560
Speaker 2: He's been great, leads the team in receiving yards and

1163
00:57:04,560 --> 00:57:06,120
Speaker 2: he has ten more catches than anybody else. He's done

1164
00:57:06,160 --> 00:57:09,040
Speaker 2: for the year. He matters. So this Notre Dame team,

1165
00:57:09,400 --> 00:57:11,879
Speaker 2: they just be pit fifty eight to seven. They're over

1166
00:57:11,880 --> 00:57:13,239
Speaker 2: inflated in the market right now. I mean, this is

1167
00:57:13,239 --> 00:57:15,360
Speaker 2: a team that got blown out at Louisville, should have

1168
00:57:15,400 --> 00:57:18,280
Speaker 2: lost at Duke, and now they're laying a field goal

1169
00:57:18,320 --> 00:57:21,800
Speaker 2: plus at Clemson. Well, not even Florida State did. In fact,

1170
00:57:21,920 --> 00:57:23,360
Speaker 2: line was wrong Cup. It should have been a small

1171
00:57:23,360 --> 00:57:25,920
Speaker 2: fair and they should have won that game altking Florida

1172
00:57:25,960 --> 00:57:28,560
Speaker 2: State by one hundred and fifty lost on missed field

1173
00:57:28,560 --> 00:57:32,240
Speaker 2: goals and a defensive touchdown in overtime. So regress what's

1174
00:57:32,280 --> 00:57:35,400
Speaker 2: coming for Clemson. Just hope they haven't quit. But you

1175
00:57:35,440 --> 00:57:36,600
Speaker 2: have to take the field goal here with the home

1176
00:57:36,640 --> 00:57:37,400
Speaker 2: dog and hold your nose.

1177
00:57:37,920 --> 00:57:40,400
Speaker 1: It used to be the funds in the winning. Now

1178
00:57:40,440 --> 00:57:45,760
Speaker 1: even when you win, people like you complain and criticize

1179
00:57:45,800 --> 00:57:49,800
Speaker 1: the coaches. People like you who just love to destroy

1180
00:57:49,960 --> 00:57:53,439
Speaker 1: people with your comments. I'm sure you've never made any

1181
00:57:53,480 --> 00:57:56,120
Speaker 1: bad decisions. I'm sure you've lived a perfect life.

1182
00:57:56,400 --> 00:57:58,960
Speaker 3: Well, Dabbo has a way of making people think it's

1183
00:57:59,240 --> 00:58:01,920
Speaker 3: me and my team against the world and everybody hates us.

1184
00:58:02,280 --> 00:58:05,720
Speaker 3: He likes to yell at people that call it, say

1185
00:58:05,800 --> 00:58:07,920
Speaker 3: take my job if you want it. But I'm surprised

1186
00:58:07,960 --> 00:58:10,600
Speaker 3: you haven't mentioned the secret weapon. Secret weapon in this

1187
00:58:10,640 --> 00:58:13,320
Speaker 3: game is Chauncey Stucky. He's on the staff for Notre Dame.

1188
00:58:13,680 --> 00:58:17,160
Speaker 3: Former player that was around in two thousand and seven.

1189
00:58:17,200 --> 00:58:19,360
Speaker 3: Then he went on to I think an acting career.

1190
00:58:19,480 --> 00:58:22,280
Speaker 3: He went into the ministry, kept in contact with Dabbo.

1191
00:58:22,360 --> 00:58:24,840
Speaker 3: Called Dabo in twenty nineteen, said you have a position

1192
00:58:24,880 --> 00:58:26,560
Speaker 3: for me, and Dabo said, well, you're kind of old

1193
00:58:26,600 --> 00:58:28,360
Speaker 3: to be a gratitistant, but I have a video grad

1194
00:58:28,360 --> 00:58:31,439
Speaker 3: assistant job. So he took that in twenty nineteen. Then

1195
00:58:31,720 --> 00:58:34,880
Speaker 3: he referred him to Dave Randa Baylor. Now Tommy Rees called.

1196
00:58:34,880 --> 00:58:37,440
Speaker 3: He ended up at Notre Dame. Long story short, Dabbo

1197
00:58:37,520 --> 00:58:40,200
Speaker 3: and Chauncey Stucky text like once a week and they

1198
00:58:40,280 --> 00:58:43,080
Speaker 3: keep up pretty frequently about what's going on with Notre

1199
00:58:43,120 --> 00:58:45,440
Speaker 3: Dame in clubs and football. So I think it's easier

1200
00:58:45,480 --> 00:58:47,680
Speaker 3: for Dabo to handicap what he needs to defend against

1201
00:58:47,680 --> 00:58:50,360
Speaker 3: Notre Dame. I think it's a huge advantage for him.

1202
00:58:50,400 --> 00:58:52,280
Speaker 3: Maybe it's nothing, but I think it's a huge advantage

1203
00:58:52,280 --> 00:58:53,200
Speaker 3: because they talk all the time.

1204
00:58:53,240 --> 00:58:56,040
Speaker 2: But Louisville Blase Compson defense has been fine all year.

1205
00:58:56,480 --> 00:58:57,240
Speaker 2: It's still really good.

1206
00:58:57,560 --> 00:58:57,880
Speaker 3: Yeah.

1207
00:58:58,320 --> 00:59:00,760
Speaker 1: I started as the lowest paid code in this freaking

1208
00:59:00,800 --> 00:59:04,080
Speaker 1: business because I've worked my ass off and I ain't

1209
00:59:04,080 --> 00:59:05,880
Speaker 1: gonna let some smart ass.

1210
00:59:05,680 --> 00:59:06,520
Speaker 2: Create this stuff.

1211
00:59:07,160 --> 00:59:09,160
Speaker 1: So if you got a problem with it, I don't care.

1212
00:59:09,640 --> 00:59:13,920
Speaker 1: Clemson went thirty five years your whole freaking life, and

1213
00:59:14,000 --> 00:59:16,800
Speaker 1: we've won two in seven years and we earned it.

1214
00:59:17,000 --> 00:59:19,800
Speaker 3: Clemson defense is top five and limiting both pass and

1215
00:59:19,960 --> 00:59:23,840
Speaker 3: rush EPA. So if Notre Dame for some reason can't

1216
00:59:23,840 --> 00:59:26,880
Speaker 3: put methodicals together against Pitt and Southern Cow's defense, don't

1217
00:59:26,880 --> 00:59:29,720
Speaker 3: have your star tight end and all they have is explosives.

1218
00:59:30,200 --> 00:59:33,600
Speaker 3: Clemson's really good at stopping that I mentioned inside zone

1219
00:59:33,600 --> 00:59:35,840
Speaker 3: being the big thing with LSU and Alabama. Clemson's one

1220
00:59:35,840 --> 00:59:37,480
Speaker 3: of the best in the nation. It's stopping the run

1221
00:59:37,520 --> 00:59:40,720
Speaker 3: inside outside zone that Audric Estimey loves, averaging four point

1222
00:59:40,720 --> 00:59:44,560
Speaker 3: two yards after contact, and Hartman's been fantastic against zone coverage,

1223
00:59:44,720 --> 00:59:47,720
Speaker 3: but he struggles and cover one. Hartman's worst days of

1224
00:59:47,720 --> 00:59:50,760
Speaker 3: the year came against Duke and NC State running cover one. Well,

1225
00:59:50,760 --> 00:59:53,440
Speaker 3: guess what Clemson plays cover one more than any other

1226
00:59:53,560 --> 00:59:56,280
Speaker 3: zone coverage is possibly out there. I'm with you. I'm

1227
00:59:56,280 --> 00:59:59,000
Speaker 3: so uncomfortable this week. I'm with you. I'm on Clemson.

1228
00:59:59,040 --> 00:59:59,760
Speaker 3: It's gross.

1229
01:00:00,120 --> 01:00:04,160
Speaker 2: Let's go Lincoln, Riley and Dabo. We're riding with you.

1230
01:00:04,840 --> 01:00:07,200
Speaker 1: I'm fifty three years old. I have been a part

1231
01:00:07,200 --> 01:00:10,160
Speaker 1: of failure many times, but there ain't one thing in

1232
01:00:10,240 --> 01:00:12,200
Speaker 1: my life that I've ever failed at.

1233
01:00:12,480 --> 01:00:12,760
Speaker 3: Ever.

1234
01:00:13,120 --> 01:00:15,120
Speaker 1: Oh, I don't give a crap how much money I'll make.

1235
01:00:15,240 --> 01:00:18,240
Speaker 1: You ain't gonna talk to me like I'm twelve years old.

1236
01:00:18,800 --> 01:00:19,920
Speaker 1: It'd be freaking kidding me.

1237
01:00:20,240 --> 01:00:23,480
Speaker 2: All right, let's for what it's worth. Including the postseason.

1238
01:00:23,560 --> 01:00:25,880
Speaker 2: Dabo fourteen and seven against the spread as an underdog

1239
01:00:25,920 --> 01:00:27,680
Speaker 2: of more than a field goal, covering by five points

1240
01:00:27,680 --> 01:00:30,680
Speaker 2: per game speaks to that like us against the world mentality.

1241
01:00:30,680 --> 01:00:32,080
Speaker 2: But I think Clemson wins.

1242
01:00:31,840 --> 01:00:34,440
Speaker 3: The game rapid fire.

1243
01:00:35,640 --> 01:00:37,880
Speaker 2: All right, let's go super rapid fire here. Texas A

1244
01:00:37,960 --> 01:00:40,680
Speaker 2: and m at Ole miss almost three point favorite lean

1245
01:00:40,720 --> 01:00:42,720
Speaker 2: Ole miss. No play here for me, anything for you.

1246
01:00:43,160 --> 01:00:44,640
Speaker 3: This is an over for me all the way Texas

1247
01:00:44,640 --> 01:00:45,960
Speaker 3: A and m and Ol miss. These two teams are

1248
01:00:46,000 --> 01:00:48,200
Speaker 3: going to be full of havoc sacks tackles for loss,

1249
01:00:48,240 --> 01:00:51,120
Speaker 3: cheap field position. I don't see either quarterback having any

1250
01:00:51,200 --> 01:00:54,920
Speaker 3: kind of advantage throwing downfield. There's gonna be a lot

1251
01:00:55,040 --> 01:00:58,280
Speaker 3: of extra points scored that weren't supposed to be there

1252
01:00:58,280 --> 01:01:01,520
Speaker 3: because of failed drives, because of fumble interceptions, all that, whatnot.

1253
01:01:01,560 --> 01:01:02,840
Speaker 3: So give me the over here in Texas, A and

1254
01:01:02,960 --> 01:01:03,320
Speaker 3: M will.

1255
01:01:03,200 --> 01:01:08,040
Speaker 2: Miss undefeated James Madison eight no heads to six and

1256
01:01:08,080 --> 01:01:10,920
Speaker 2: two Georgia State and a big game in the Sun Belt.

1257
01:01:11,600 --> 01:01:14,320
Speaker 3: Don't let the latest come between you and the bill.

1258
01:01:15,520 --> 01:01:17,800
Speaker 2: Jamie five and a half point favorite over under fifty

1259
01:01:17,800 --> 01:01:19,680
Speaker 2: four and a half. I show a little bit of

1260
01:01:19,720 --> 01:01:22,440
Speaker 2: value in Georgia State, but Georgia State. The handicapp there

1261
01:01:22,480 --> 01:01:23,760
Speaker 2: is they need to be able to run it and

1262
01:01:23,800 --> 01:01:27,440
Speaker 2: you can't run it on JMU. Right, So matchup wise,

1263
01:01:27,520 --> 01:01:32,160
Speaker 2: no thanks because the number can't play JMU. I got

1264
01:01:32,200 --> 01:01:34,840
Speaker 2: seven plus on Georgia State. I probably still play them,

1265
01:01:34,960 --> 01:01:36,640
Speaker 2: but not a good match up for Georgia State. What

1266
01:01:36,680 --> 01:01:37,200
Speaker 2: do you see here?

1267
01:01:37,400 --> 01:01:39,520
Speaker 3: I think James Madison wins by three or four. You're

1268
01:01:39,560 --> 01:01:42,120
Speaker 3: ie Georgia State's fifty nine percent run rate all inside

1269
01:01:42,200 --> 01:01:45,680
Speaker 3: zone with Marcus Carroll. James Madison's one of the highest

1270
01:01:46,280 --> 01:01:49,919
Speaker 3: success rates against the rush against inside zone. They've seen

1271
01:01:49,960 --> 01:01:53,240
Speaker 3: a boatload of it on their schedule. Also, Georgia State's

1272
01:01:53,240 --> 01:01:55,960
Speaker 3: fourth in the nation and rush explosives well, James Madison's

1273
01:01:55,960 --> 01:01:58,760
Speaker 3: first in defending rush explosives. So Danny Granger is going

1274
01:01:58,840 --> 01:02:00,760
Speaker 3: to be asked to throw into three three coverage. It's

1275
01:02:00,800 --> 01:02:02,880
Speaker 3: just it's not gonna go well. I like the under

1276
01:02:02,880 --> 01:02:05,400
Speaker 3: fIF fifth drive is very key. Under fifty five.

1277
01:02:05,760 --> 01:02:08,840
Speaker 2: James Madison allowing one point six yards per carry that

1278
01:02:08,960 --> 01:02:10,920
Speaker 2: leads the nation. No one else is under it, and

1279
01:02:10,920 --> 01:02:13,440
Speaker 2: it won't be in a bowl. Insane. Let's go to

1280
01:02:13,480 --> 01:02:16,520
Speaker 2: the PAC twelve Oregon State thirteen and a half point

1281
01:02:16,520 --> 01:02:20,160
Speaker 2: favorites at Colorado. You would be able to run right

1282
01:02:20,160 --> 01:02:25,880
Speaker 2: down Colorado's throat. Can Colorado take advantage of Oregon State secondary? Possibly?

1283
01:02:26,800 --> 01:02:29,680
Speaker 2: The only thing I'm worried about here is the Oregon

1284
01:02:29,760 --> 01:02:34,680
Speaker 2: State kind of had their you know, their dreams of

1285
01:02:34,840 --> 01:02:37,760
Speaker 2: the PAC twelve and other things ruined last week. As

1286
01:02:37,800 --> 01:02:41,040
Speaker 2: I said, would happen against the juggernaut that is Arizona.

1287
01:02:41,720 --> 01:02:45,320
Speaker 2: So do they show up here, Colorado will definitely be hyped.

1288
01:02:46,120 --> 01:02:46,800
Speaker 2: What do you see?

1289
01:02:47,400 --> 01:02:49,360
Speaker 3: I make this nine? I've been one to bet Colorado

1290
01:02:49,640 --> 01:02:52,600
Speaker 3: all week. I mean, they looked very buttoned up after

1291
01:02:52,600 --> 01:02:55,040
Speaker 3: the bye week they played. They played before the bye,

1292
01:02:55,080 --> 01:02:57,600
Speaker 3: they played in three straight one possession games before they covered.

1293
01:02:57,600 --> 01:03:01,280
Speaker 3: Against UCLA, they forced four youth turnovers and it's the

1294
01:03:01,320 --> 01:03:04,000
Speaker 3: best standard downs game they've had of the year. That's

1295
01:03:04,000 --> 01:03:06,000
Speaker 3: where it gets a little misleading because they only didn't

1296
01:03:06,080 --> 01:03:07,640
Speaker 3: run the ball very much. They ran the ball like

1297
01:03:07,680 --> 01:03:10,600
Speaker 3: seventeen times. That's how you attack the Oregon State defense

1298
01:03:10,680 --> 01:03:13,720
Speaker 3: is running the ball, but Colorado doesn't do that. Shaduro

1299
01:03:13,800 --> 01:03:16,560
Speaker 3: Sanders had his lowest average depth of target of the

1300
01:03:16,640 --> 01:03:20,440
Speaker 3: year against UCLA five point seven yards I think it was.

1301
01:03:20,480 --> 01:03:23,120
Speaker 3: But he's throwing behind the line of scrimmage to twelve

1302
01:03:23,120 --> 01:03:26,480
Speaker 3: different targets. I think it was. So it's really not

1303
01:03:26,520 --> 01:03:28,840
Speaker 3: a fit of how you beat Oregon State versus what

1304
01:03:28,880 --> 01:03:31,080
Speaker 3: Colorado does. But what I do know is that Shadarra

1305
01:03:31,160 --> 01:03:33,880
Speaker 3: Sanders is on point with his passes. They're fourth and

1306
01:03:33,920 --> 01:03:38,400
Speaker 3: on target. They've become actually pretty efficient, more efficient than

1307
01:03:38,400 --> 01:03:40,760
Speaker 3: they were the first four games of the season. I

1308
01:03:40,800 --> 01:03:42,200
Speaker 3: think Colorado can give him a little bit of a

1309
01:03:42,240 --> 01:03:44,680
Speaker 3: scare here. You're right, you know, can Oregon State just

1310
01:03:44,720 --> 01:03:47,360
Speaker 3: bul them over? I have not seen. There's no explosiveness

1311
01:03:47,360 --> 01:03:49,120
Speaker 3: in this beaver's rush anymore. I think they're eighty ninth

1312
01:03:49,160 --> 01:03:52,200
Speaker 3: at EPA on the ground. Colorado can hang around here.

1313
01:03:52,440 --> 01:03:54,000
Speaker 3: I gain I projected eight and a half. I'll take

1314
01:03:54,000 --> 01:03:54,840
Speaker 3: the thirteen.

1315
01:03:55,400 --> 01:04:00,840
Speaker 2: One last one. My Arizona Wildcats are betting them again.

1316
01:04:00,920 --> 01:04:03,600
Speaker 2: Of course, all I do is bet Arizona every single

1317
01:04:03,640 --> 01:04:05,280
Speaker 2: week in the PAC twelve. And guess what all they

1318
01:04:05,280 --> 01:04:07,520
Speaker 2: do is cover? When? When is the market going to

1319
01:04:07,560 --> 01:04:09,880
Speaker 2: realize this team is good? All they are is seven

1320
01:04:09,920 --> 01:04:12,080
Speaker 2: and one against the spread, five and oh against the

1321
01:04:12,080 --> 01:04:14,960
Speaker 2: spread as an underdog covering. You know what Arizona as.

1322
01:04:14,960 --> 01:04:17,360
Speaker 2: There's an underdog this year five and oh against spread,

1323
01:04:17,480 --> 01:04:21,520
Speaker 2: covering by seventeen points per game. And this team is

1324
01:04:21,600 --> 01:04:24,200
Speaker 2: so good it's ridiculous, and they get no respect. They've

1325
01:04:24,200 --> 01:04:26,480
Speaker 2: lost two games in overtime, one of miss if you say,

1326
01:04:26,520 --> 01:04:28,200
Speaker 2: should have won at bet Turn of Block and should

1327
01:04:28,200 --> 01:04:31,320
Speaker 2: have won at USC They're only other loss at by seven.

1328
01:04:31,480 --> 01:04:34,720
Speaker 2: It gainst a healthy Washington team. That's it. Jet Fish

1329
01:04:34,720 --> 01:04:36,600
Speaker 2: doing an amazing job. He's gonna get a new job soon.

1330
01:04:36,760 --> 01:04:39,960
Speaker 2: Enjoying Why you can down in Tucson, Arizona could be

1331
01:04:40,000 --> 01:04:42,080
Speaker 2: six and one eighty seven and oh with a couple

1332
01:04:42,120 --> 01:04:46,560
Speaker 2: of breaks, Like in the discussion for the back twelve

1333
01:04:46,560 --> 01:04:50,680
Speaker 2: a Collgewall playoff, DeLaura, he got hurt. Noah Fafida has

1334
01:04:50,720 --> 01:04:53,760
Speaker 2: come in. He's basically DeLaura without turnovers. He's been the

1335
01:04:53,760 --> 01:04:56,880
Speaker 2: Pac twelve Freshman of the Week three times. He's made

1336
01:04:56,880 --> 01:05:00,840
Speaker 2: four starts, all against top twenty teams. He's complete seventy

1337
01:05:00,880 --> 01:05:05,640
Speaker 2: five percent of his passes, is twelve hundred yards, eleven touchdowns,

1338
01:05:05,640 --> 01:05:10,200
Speaker 2: three interceptions. At this offense is so well balanced. The

1339
01:05:10,240 --> 01:05:13,080
Speaker 2: pass blocking is excellent. They got a deep backfield of

1340
01:05:13,160 --> 01:05:16,640
Speaker 2: explosive runners. They rank third in rush success rate. They

1341
01:05:16,640 --> 01:05:19,240
Speaker 2: have two great receivers on the outside of McMillan and Cowing.

1342
01:05:20,320 --> 01:05:22,480
Speaker 2: I mean it's this team is so good. And then

1343
01:05:22,560 --> 01:05:25,600
Speaker 2: on their defense to break this down. Two really good

1344
01:05:25,680 --> 01:05:29,040
Speaker 2: rushing attacks, two really good rush defense. Like people aren't

1345
01:05:29,040 --> 01:05:30,880
Speaker 2: talking about Arizona Rundy. I mean, they're like top twenty

1346
01:05:30,920 --> 01:05:34,080
Speaker 2: in every metric. I don't think either team's gonna get

1347
01:05:34,160 --> 01:05:35,880
Speaker 2: much on the ground based on the matchup. What does

1348
01:05:35,920 --> 01:05:38,360
Speaker 2: it come down to who's passing attack to trust more

1349
01:05:38,960 --> 01:05:43,200
Speaker 2: Garber's and UCLA, Whereas at Arizona, I'm taking the plus three.

1350
01:05:43,200 --> 01:05:45,440
Speaker 2: I think Arizona wins this game. Again, I'm on a

1351
01:05:45,480 --> 01:05:49,920
Speaker 2: broken record here, and look, UCLA has played two road

1352
01:05:50,000 --> 01:05:53,440
Speaker 2: league games against Utah and Oregon State, and those went

1353
01:05:53,480 --> 01:05:56,080
Speaker 2: pretty poorly since two thousand and five. By the way,

1354
01:05:56,120 --> 01:05:58,160
Speaker 2: this has been this is an Arizona thing. No team

1355
01:05:58,160 --> 01:06:01,080
Speaker 2: in college football more profitable as a home dog against

1356
01:06:01,160 --> 01:06:06,360
Speaker 2: ranked opponents in Arizona eighteen six and one against the spread,

1357
01:06:06,480 --> 01:06:09,200
Speaker 2: covering by ten points per game two and O this season,

1358
01:06:10,080 --> 01:06:11,960
Speaker 2: fare Down, I.

1359
01:06:11,920 --> 01:06:14,200
Speaker 3: Shoved money in while you were going through it, because

1360
01:06:14,200 --> 01:06:16,320
Speaker 3: this is a rapid fire segment. I will say this

1361
01:06:17,280 --> 01:06:21,120
Speaker 3: Colorado had no way to protection durus Anders. You already

1362
01:06:21,160 --> 01:06:24,120
Speaker 3: mentioned it. Arizona number one in the nation per PFF

1363
01:06:24,120 --> 01:06:26,120
Speaker 3: and pass blocking. They are going to be able to

1364
01:06:26,480 --> 01:06:28,800
Speaker 3: protect fa Feta. So I am with you. I shove

1365
01:06:28,840 --> 01:06:30,880
Speaker 3: money on Arizona plus three. Let's go ahead and get.

1366
01:06:30,720 --> 01:06:34,360
Speaker 2: It all right before we get to some trash full

1367
01:06:34,440 --> 01:06:37,920
Speaker 2: season in colleg cheap season are right around the corner,

1368
01:06:38,680 --> 01:06:40,840
Speaker 2: so we know things are going to get even busier,

1369
01:06:40,960 --> 01:06:42,800
Speaker 2: but we can't let that stop us from being the

1370
01:06:42,840 --> 01:06:46,000
Speaker 2: best version of ourselves. That's where our friends at Caldera

1371
01:06:46,080 --> 01:06:48,040
Speaker 2: Lab come in one minute, in the morning and one

1372
01:06:48,080 --> 01:06:49,720
Speaker 2: minute at night can be all the difference you need

1373
01:06:49,760 --> 01:06:52,600
Speaker 2: for clear, better skin. Their easy routine keeps us looking

1374
01:06:52,640 --> 01:06:55,600
Speaker 2: fresh no matter our schedule. It's just three steps. One

1375
01:06:55,760 --> 01:06:58,840
Speaker 2: the clean slate that's the face wash, two the base

1376
01:06:58,920 --> 01:07:02,440
Speaker 2: layer that's the daily moisturizer, and three the good the

1377
01:07:02,560 --> 01:07:06,840
Speaker 2: nightly I serum. I absolutely love so join over one

1378
01:07:06,920 --> 01:07:09,720
Speaker 2: hundred thousand men who trust called air Lab to show

1379
01:07:09,720 --> 01:07:13,480
Speaker 2: their best selves this Bowl season. And just for our listeners,

1380
01:07:13,640 --> 01:07:17,360
Speaker 2: we have an exclusive deal. Use code bboc at calderlab

1381
01:07:17,400 --> 01:07:20,240
Speaker 2: dot com for twenty percent off right now, that's twenty

1382
01:07:20,280 --> 01:07:24,960
Speaker 2: percent off with code bboc at calderlab dot com. Make

1383
01:07:25,160 --> 01:07:28,760
Speaker 2: unforgettable impressions with Caldera Lab. All right, let's get this

1384
01:07:28,800 --> 01:07:29,920
Speaker 2: some trash.

1385
01:07:29,800 --> 01:07:31,680
Speaker 1: The trash man pick of the week.

1386
01:07:32,240 --> 01:07:35,640
Speaker 3: I'm the trash man. Just throw me the trash, your garbage,

1387
01:07:35,920 --> 01:07:36,640
Speaker 3: and you know it.

1388
01:07:37,000 --> 01:07:39,160
Speaker 1: Totally unreliable, undependable.

1389
01:07:39,480 --> 01:07:40,400
Speaker 2: That's it. You've been told on.

1390
01:07:40,520 --> 01:07:41,760
Speaker 1: How do you like that? Good?

1391
01:07:42,520 --> 01:07:45,080
Speaker 2: Let's start off with the two and six South Carolina

1392
01:07:45,080 --> 01:07:47,200
Speaker 2: team laying over two touchdowns against the seven and two

1393
01:07:47,240 --> 01:07:50,120
Speaker 2: Jack State team. Yes, we're laying it South Carolina two

1394
01:07:50,200 --> 01:07:53,200
Speaker 2: and six all six losses against opponents that were ranked

1395
01:07:53,240 --> 01:07:58,280
Speaker 2: at one point this year. Jacksonsville States wins utep Etsu,

1396
01:07:58,920 --> 01:08:05,400
Speaker 2: Eastern Michigan, Sam Houston State, Middle Tennessee, Western Kentucky, and

1397
01:08:05,520 --> 01:08:09,000
Speaker 2: Florida International. That's their seven wins. Not a single team

1398
01:08:09,000 --> 01:08:12,280
Speaker 2: I have inside the top one hundred. They were catching

1399
01:08:12,320 --> 01:08:15,800
Speaker 2: this number at Coastal and they didn't cover. They didn't

1400
01:08:15,800 --> 01:08:17,920
Speaker 2: even cover I Coast. I have South kinda seven points

1401
01:08:17,960 --> 01:08:19,800
Speaker 2: better than Coastal. This is a get right game for

1402
01:08:19,840 --> 01:08:24,800
Speaker 2: South Carolina. Huge strength of schedule discrepancy. South Carolina number

1403
01:08:24,800 --> 01:08:27,240
Speaker 2: one hardest schedule in the country. I just mentioned there's

1404
01:08:27,240 --> 01:08:29,559
Speaker 2: six losses against ranked teams. Only one came at home.

1405
01:08:30,439 --> 01:08:34,800
Speaker 2: Jacksonville State won thirty three. It's bad San South Kinna

1406
01:08:34,760 --> 01:08:38,320
Speaker 2: also bad luck at one fumble recovery this year. Opponents

1407
01:08:38,320 --> 01:08:41,960
Speaker 2: are fourteen of nineteen on fourth down and South count

1408
01:08:42,000 --> 01:08:45,080
Speaker 2: is only six to seventeen. Jacksonville State Canada take advantage

1409
01:08:45,120 --> 01:08:48,880
Speaker 2: of this. South Carolina secondary rattlers should shred has healthier

1410
01:08:48,920 --> 01:08:51,760
Speaker 2: weapons now. Sam Houston State through for three on yards

1411
01:08:51,760 --> 01:08:54,400
Speaker 2: against Jacksonville State and Jacksonville State uses tempo, which you

1412
01:08:54,439 --> 01:08:56,280
Speaker 2: don't want. Is a dog, a big dog on the

1413
01:08:56,320 --> 01:08:58,720
Speaker 2: road in the SEC. Jacksonville State also playing for a

1414
01:08:58,720 --> 01:09:01,920
Speaker 2: conference title. They could sit guys rest up. They have

1415
01:09:01,920 --> 01:09:03,960
Speaker 2: an easy schedule. That's the way they could cool guys earlier.

1416
01:09:04,680 --> 01:09:07,160
Speaker 2: Cox role in a battle of Cox, it's a cockfight here.

1417
01:09:07,240 --> 01:09:07,879
Speaker 2: Do you agree?

1418
01:09:08,680 --> 01:09:10,800
Speaker 3: One hundred percent agree? I think strength of schedule is

1419
01:09:10,800 --> 01:09:13,280
Speaker 3: the biggest factor here. You mentioned the points spread that

1420
01:09:13,360 --> 01:09:15,960
Speaker 3: Jacksonville States had against other teams. This is an easy

1421
01:09:16,000 --> 01:09:18,479
Speaker 3: one that will probably bring up later in the show

1422
01:09:18,520 --> 01:09:21,080
Speaker 3: that you you got before I did in a certain segment.

1423
01:09:21,520 --> 01:09:24,639
Speaker 2: What I love garbage. By the way, I think South

1424
01:09:24,680 --> 01:09:26,160
Speaker 2: GHN is still still fighting. They can still go to

1425
01:09:26,240 --> 01:09:26,519
Speaker 2: a bowl.

1426
01:09:26,560 --> 01:09:28,400
Speaker 3: Hey, it's the month of November. This is when Spencer

1427
01:09:28,479 --> 01:09:29,080
Speaker 3: Ratler makes his.

1428
01:09:29,120 --> 01:09:32,960
Speaker 2: Money, right, Yep, yep. Let's stay with another. We're gonna

1429
01:09:32,960 --> 01:09:35,880
Speaker 2: fade this trust to be filled with Conference USA schedule fades.

1430
01:09:35,920 --> 01:09:38,840
Speaker 2: LA Tech catch at seventeen against the eight to oh

1431
01:09:39,560 --> 01:09:44,120
Speaker 2: flames of Liberty. Look Salt has been great in Chadwell System.

1432
01:09:44,160 --> 01:09:50,280
Speaker 2: Here's Liberty's wins Bowling Green, New Mexico State, Buffalo, FIU,

1433
01:09:50,920 --> 01:09:56,120
Speaker 2: Sam Houston State, Jacksonville State, Middle Tennessee, and Western Kentucky.

1434
01:09:57,400 --> 01:10:01,639
Speaker 2: They've played nobody. Louisiana Tech. They you have the face

1435
01:10:01,680 --> 01:10:04,559
Speaker 2: top hundred team and they barely beat Middle Tennessee. They

1436
01:10:04,600 --> 01:10:06,920
Speaker 2: barely beat Middle Tennessee. They barely beat sam Houston State

1437
01:10:06,920 --> 01:10:09,439
Speaker 2: at home. Jacksonville State lost all their quarterbacks and again

1438
01:10:09,479 --> 01:10:11,240
Speaker 2: it was tied at the half. Also, they have an

1439
01:10:11,280 --> 01:10:15,120
Speaker 2: extreme turnover luck on defense, and Louisiana Tech's been extremely

1440
01:10:15,160 --> 01:10:18,479
Speaker 2: unlucky on four downs, fumbles, you named it across the board.

1441
01:10:18,560 --> 01:10:21,799
Speaker 2: They've had injuries, yet they've been They've lost one Prosession

1442
01:10:21,800 --> 01:10:25,800
Speaker 2: games to Middle Tennessee, New Mexico State, Western Kentucky, and

1443
01:10:25,880 --> 01:10:29,280
Speaker 2: North Texas. Even at Nebraska with Jack Turner starting, they

1444
01:10:29,280 --> 01:10:31,559
Speaker 2: have had injuries at running back, quarterback, back, myers back.

1445
01:10:31,680 --> 01:10:34,679
Speaker 2: This is too high. Law Tech's been unlucky. Mexico State's

1446
01:10:34,680 --> 01:10:37,160
Speaker 2: been lucky against the joke schedule. So yeah, give me

1447
01:10:37,240 --> 01:10:39,120
Speaker 2: give me law Tech here catching an inflated number.

1448
01:10:39,600 --> 01:10:42,240
Speaker 3: Liberty could probably lose out and still make the Conference

1449
01:10:42,320 --> 01:10:45,000
Speaker 3: USA Championship game. I mean, there's six and zero they

1450
01:10:45,000 --> 01:10:47,439
Speaker 3: hold tybree doesn't matter with Jacksonville State, they can't play

1451
01:10:47,439 --> 01:10:49,400
Speaker 3: in it. They hold a tiebreaker over New Mexico State

1452
01:10:49,400 --> 01:10:51,320
Speaker 3: at four and one. They hold a tiebreaker over Western

1453
01:10:51,400 --> 01:10:54,040
Speaker 3: Kentucky in two and two. Law Tech here, who they're

1454
01:10:54,040 --> 01:10:55,680
Speaker 3: playing is next to the standings, they're two and three

1455
01:10:55,680 --> 01:10:58,360
Speaker 3: in conference. I think Liberty, who I don't expect to

1456
01:10:58,360 --> 01:11:00,400
Speaker 3: lose his game out right, could lose out and still

1457
01:11:00,400 --> 01:11:03,599
Speaker 3: play in the championship game. So you know, unload the benches,

1458
01:11:04,240 --> 01:11:06,479
Speaker 3: get the get the guys that have red shirts that

1459
01:11:06,520 --> 01:11:08,200
Speaker 3: you can play for four games, get them in there.

1460
01:11:08,680 --> 01:11:11,599
Speaker 3: I'm not saying Liberty is a fade train, but I mean,

1461
01:11:11,640 --> 01:11:13,280
Speaker 3: come on, I mean they could lose out and still

1462
01:11:13,280 --> 01:11:14,200
Speaker 3: make the championship game.

1463
01:11:14,600 --> 01:11:16,439
Speaker 2: LA Tech's been feisty. They think they're in games, they

1464
01:11:16,439 --> 01:11:19,960
Speaker 2: just don't win them. One more conference US State schedule fade,

1465
01:11:20,000 --> 01:11:22,080
Speaker 2: We're fading New Mexico State. You want to talk about

1466
01:11:22,080 --> 01:11:24,679
Speaker 2: a schedule saving the best for last? Mexico State six

1467
01:11:24,680 --> 01:11:27,720
Speaker 2: wins when you hear their wins Western Illinois, New Mexico,

1468
01:11:28,200 --> 01:11:32,400
Speaker 2: Florida International, Sam, Houston State, Utech and LA Tech in

1469
01:11:32,439 --> 01:11:33,880
Speaker 2: a game that they Latzech should have won out game

1470
01:11:33,880 --> 01:11:37,120
Speaker 2: in one hundred yards and two turnovers, lost by three.

1471
01:11:37,320 --> 01:11:39,559
Speaker 2: They also, by the way, New Mexico State also has

1472
01:11:39,600 --> 01:11:42,759
Speaker 2: losses to UMass in Hawaii. If you go by Sagarin,

1473
01:11:43,400 --> 01:11:45,680
Speaker 2: which ranks FCS teams. You know, you know where New

1474
01:11:45,720 --> 01:11:49,280
Speaker 2: Mexico State schedule is strength the schedule one fifty seven.

1475
01:11:49,920 --> 01:11:54,160
Speaker 2: Nicols State has a tougher schedule, the next toughest in

1476
01:11:54,200 --> 01:11:57,680
Speaker 2: all of FBS one thirty seven. Their schedule has been

1477
01:11:57,680 --> 01:12:00,759
Speaker 2: a joke, by the way, opposite Middle Tennessee Middle Tennessee

1478
01:12:01,120 --> 01:12:04,479
Speaker 2: National average strength to schedule. They played at Alabama Missouri

1479
01:12:04,479 --> 01:12:06,639
Speaker 2: to start the year, got beat up. They've also played

1480
01:12:06,680 --> 01:12:09,000
Speaker 2: all the top dogs in the conference. And by the way,

1481
01:12:09,040 --> 01:12:11,879
Speaker 2: they lost by four at Missouri. They lost one possession

1482
01:12:11,920 --> 01:12:14,400
Speaker 2: at Liberty, which they looked at those results look better

1483
01:12:14,439 --> 01:12:17,960
Speaker 2: by the day, So look they're zero to three and

1484
01:12:18,000 --> 01:12:21,200
Speaker 2: one possession games. They've been bad variants in terms of

1485
01:12:21,479 --> 01:12:24,120
Speaker 2: red zone turnovers, laid down the defense because their early

1486
01:12:24,120 --> 01:12:27,280
Speaker 2: downs have been good. So yeah, Middle Tennessee State has

1487
01:12:27,280 --> 01:12:30,000
Speaker 2: been feistier. They've also had seventeen days to prepare for

1488
01:12:30,040 --> 01:12:31,880
Speaker 2: this game, and if they win this game, they're probably

1489
01:12:31,920 --> 01:12:34,960
Speaker 2: gonna go bowling. They have FIU UTEP and Sam Houston

1490
01:12:35,040 --> 01:12:38,200
Speaker 2: left because they already played all the top teams. Stock still,

1491
01:12:38,240 --> 01:12:39,639
Speaker 2: for what it's worth, five and zero against the spread

1492
01:12:39,640 --> 01:12:42,799
Speaker 2: with two weeks more to prepare for a game. Pavia

1493
01:12:42,800 --> 01:12:45,439
Speaker 2: has some turnovers coming. This Mexico State team's terrible. I

1494
01:12:45,439 --> 01:12:48,439
Speaker 2: have Middle Tennessee stayed better on the neutral seventeen days

1495
01:12:48,439 --> 01:12:52,360
Speaker 2: off here, it's huge strength of schedule disparity. Middle Tennessee wins.

1496
01:12:52,720 --> 01:12:54,880
Speaker 3: I am not joining you. I get it with Rick

1497
01:12:54,880 --> 01:12:56,760
Speaker 3: Stocks still being good off of a bye week. If

1498
01:12:56,760 --> 01:12:58,599
Speaker 3: you look how long he's been at Middle Tennessee State.

1499
01:12:58,640 --> 01:13:01,280
Speaker 3: But diego Pavia, He's he's not dead. Is he's playing

1500
01:13:01,280 --> 01:13:03,479
Speaker 3: in this game? Right? And Middle Tennessee is like bottom

1501
01:13:03,479 --> 01:13:06,120
Speaker 3: fifteen in the nation defending the run, right. I mean,

1502
01:13:06,160 --> 01:13:07,960
Speaker 3: I can't join you on this plus. This is a

1503
01:13:08,040 --> 01:13:09,639
Speaker 3: number I make like seven and a half. I think

1504
01:13:09,640 --> 01:13:12,719
Speaker 3: guess p plus makes his the nine. This number is crazy,

1505
01:13:12,760 --> 01:13:14,559
Speaker 3: three three, I.

1506
01:13:14,520 --> 01:13:16,439
Speaker 2: Make Middle Tennessee State one.

1507
01:13:18,479 --> 01:13:21,000
Speaker 3: I'll watch, I'll spectate. If you get it.

1508
01:13:23,120 --> 01:13:24,240
Speaker 2: Mexico's state teams a fraud.

1509
01:13:24,479 --> 01:13:26,879
Speaker 3: He is a trash trash trash.

1510
01:13:27,439 --> 01:13:29,759
Speaker 2: Last one, this is against you in your favorite section.

1511
01:13:29,840 --> 01:13:32,280
Speaker 2: You're crazy. You could try to make the case Army.

1512
01:13:32,280 --> 01:13:33,640
Speaker 2: They're catching eighteen and a half in the game of

1513
01:13:33,720 --> 01:13:37,680
Speaker 2: thirty one. Projected score is twenty four to seven. You

1514
01:13:37,760 --> 01:13:39,559
Speaker 2: just need to already to score one touchdown. By the way,

1515
01:13:39,560 --> 01:13:42,400
Speaker 2: even a Army doesn't score touchdown, probably still cover. The

1516
01:13:42,520 --> 01:13:45,080
Speaker 2: Army's rundy hasn't good. It doesn't matter. Navy's rundy was

1517
01:13:45,080 --> 01:13:46,960
Speaker 2: the same metrics as Army. They know how to defend

1518
01:13:46,960 --> 01:13:49,400
Speaker 2: the triple option. You know what Air Force did against

1519
01:13:49,600 --> 01:13:52,479
Speaker 2: Navy's bad run. Dy ran for two point seven yards

1520
01:13:52,479 --> 01:13:53,840
Speaker 2: per carry, even know they average six the rest of

1521
01:13:53,880 --> 01:13:55,840
Speaker 2: their games. Army knows out of defend the triple option.

1522
01:13:56,479 --> 01:13:59,599
Speaker 2: Armies quarterbacks now healthy. You think this is a team

1523
01:13:59,600 --> 01:14:02,320
Speaker 2: that by three If that BC lost in the last

1524
01:14:02,320 --> 01:14:05,200
Speaker 2: minute to La Monroe, I think you're getting them low here.

1525
01:14:05,400 --> 01:14:07,840
Speaker 2: But eighteen and a half into Battle of Service Academies,

1526
01:14:07,880 --> 01:14:10,559
Speaker 2: with the new clock rules, this game could have fourteen nothing.

1527
01:14:10,800 --> 01:14:13,679
Speaker 2: I mean Navy covered for me. They had forty yards

1528
01:14:13,920 --> 01:14:16,479
Speaker 2: the whole game before the last drive with a backup

1529
01:14:16,520 --> 01:14:20,920
Speaker 2: quarterback forty yards. There's a chance that this game ends

1530
01:14:21,439 --> 01:14:25,400
Speaker 2: thirteen to nothing. Air Force, by the way, clown schedule,

1531
01:14:26,040 --> 01:14:28,599
Speaker 2: there ain't no great They beat Robert Morris, Sam Houston,

1532
01:14:29,439 --> 01:14:32,559
Speaker 2: Utah State, San Diego State, San Jose State, Wyoming, Navy,

1533
01:14:32,600 --> 01:14:34,680
Speaker 2: and Colorado State in a blizzard. And by the way,

1534
01:14:34,680 --> 01:14:36,920
Speaker 2: all those teams are bad against the run. None if

1535
01:14:36,920 --> 01:14:38,360
Speaker 2: they haven't planned anyone who knows how to defend the

1536
01:14:38,360 --> 01:14:41,360
Speaker 2: triple option, and they've been pretty fortunate with some like

1537
01:14:41,479 --> 01:14:45,000
Speaker 2: weather backup quarterbacks. I mean last week they should have statistically,

1538
01:14:45,000 --> 01:14:46,960
Speaker 2: they should have lost to Colordo State. Cardo stated five

1539
01:14:47,080 --> 01:14:50,800
Speaker 2: drives two hundred and fifty yards. I did with six points,

1540
01:14:51,240 --> 01:14:55,160
Speaker 2: the turnovers over three and four downs, and a blizzard

1541
01:14:55,439 --> 01:14:58,120
Speaker 2: air raid versus the triple option and a blizzard and

1542
01:14:58,240 --> 01:15:01,439
Speaker 2: Colorado State. Actually I played air Force very unlucky in

1543
01:15:01,479 --> 01:15:04,439
Speaker 2: that game. Yeah, I mean, look, even got a snowball penalty.

1544
01:15:04,439 --> 01:15:05,960
Speaker 2: Did you see that? I got a snowball penalty?

1545
01:15:06,760 --> 01:15:07,479
Speaker 3: Saw the snowball?

1546
01:15:07,560 --> 01:15:07,600
Speaker 1: No?

1547
01:15:08,040 --> 01:15:11,360
Speaker 2: Uh yeah, it's triple option Team Service Academy Game eighteen

1548
01:15:11,360 --> 01:15:13,559
Speaker 2: and a half total thirty one, no brainer. I'll let

1549
01:15:13,600 --> 01:15:15,120
Speaker 2: you wait for your thoughts on favor, because you're actually

1550
01:15:15,120 --> 01:15:16,519
Speaker 2: taking the favorite here, You're crazy.

1551
01:15:17,640 --> 01:15:20,600
Speaker 3: But anyway, I changed. I take that the option that

1552
01:15:20,640 --> 01:15:22,960
Speaker 3: I wanted was not there, so I went into the

1553
01:15:23,160 --> 01:15:23,360
Speaker 3: hold on.

1554
01:15:23,439 --> 01:15:24,040
Speaker 2: Let me take that back.

1555
01:15:24,360 --> 01:15:27,400
Speaker 3: I'm changing it. I'm changing it because I now I've got.

1556
01:15:27,280 --> 01:15:32,120
Speaker 2: Sam Houston fatigue for my saves. Okay, perfect, all right, yes,

1557
01:15:32,280 --> 01:15:34,519
Speaker 2: you're changing your favorite. I'm so happy you did brings

1558
01:15:34,600 --> 01:15:35,200
Speaker 2: joy in my heart?

1559
01:15:36,760 --> 01:15:42,080
Speaker 3: What's that smell? It's digs me just trash, the sweet,

1560
01:15:42,120 --> 01:15:43,040
Speaker 3: sweet trash.

1561
01:15:43,960 --> 01:15:47,559
Speaker 2: The trash is a gold mine, old mineld all right

1562
01:15:47,560 --> 01:15:50,920
Speaker 2: before we go three and out, Colin twenty second cap on,

1563
01:15:51,080 --> 01:15:52,840
Speaker 2: you've been hot on the San Diego State Utah State

1564
01:15:53,080 --> 01:15:54,639
Speaker 2: over under under.

1565
01:15:54,960 --> 01:15:56,599
Speaker 3: I don't see a lot of points being scored here.

1566
01:15:56,640 --> 01:15:58,800
Speaker 3: Blake Anderson, by the way, has covered just one game

1567
01:15:58,840 --> 01:16:01,519
Speaker 3: off out of his past seven off of a bye week.

1568
01:16:01,560 --> 01:16:04,000
Speaker 3: Brady Hok has had three straight covers off of bye

1569
01:16:04,320 --> 01:16:06,600
Speaker 3: As San Diego State coach, He's covered six of the

1570
01:16:06,640 --> 01:16:09,519
Speaker 3: last nine dating back to his days at Michigan, and

1571
01:16:09,600 --> 01:16:12,320
Speaker 3: Jalen Maiden hasn't created a misstackle since Week four against Boise,

1572
01:16:12,439 --> 01:16:13,960
Speaker 3: so we'll see if the bye week helps him out

1573
01:16:14,000 --> 01:16:16,680
Speaker 3: a little bit. San Diego State is eighteenth nationally and

1574
01:16:16,720 --> 01:16:19,120
Speaker 3: creating broken tackles in Utah State of one hundred and

1575
01:16:19,120 --> 01:16:22,320
Speaker 3: seventh and broken tackles allowed. So I love San Diego

1576
01:16:22,320 --> 01:16:24,960
Speaker 3: State to win this game outright as an underdog. I

1577
01:16:24,960 --> 01:16:26,960
Speaker 3: don't know who deemed the Utah State should be on

1578
01:16:27,000 --> 01:16:29,400
Speaker 3: the road and favored over teams. I get how bad

1579
01:16:29,479 --> 01:16:32,400
Speaker 3: SDSU has been. We're gonna go under minimal amount of

1580
01:16:32,400 --> 01:16:35,280
Speaker 3: points here. That Nevada came so bad, but we're gonna

1581
01:16:35,280 --> 01:16:36,720
Speaker 3: take Santego State to went out right too.

1582
01:16:37,280 --> 01:16:40,400
Speaker 2: All right, before we get out of here, let's go Brenah.

1583
01:16:41,640 --> 01:16:43,800
Speaker 3: Let's make it a quick three and out.

1584
01:16:44,680 --> 01:16:46,679
Speaker 2: All right, let's start off first down Friday night lights.

1585
01:16:46,720 --> 01:16:50,400
Speaker 2: We have BC at Syracuse Syracuse three point favorite.

1586
01:16:50,840 --> 01:16:55,120
Speaker 1: That's here, gentlemen, clear eyes, full hearts, Let's go play.

1587
01:16:57,200 --> 01:16:58,680
Speaker 2: I wish I was getting a little more PC. I

1588
01:16:58,720 --> 01:17:00,600
Speaker 2: play them. Syracuse is a quarks now, but I'll just

1589
01:17:00,640 --> 01:17:03,240
Speaker 2: be rooting for PC for the wind total, big adjustment

1590
01:17:03,280 --> 01:17:05,720
Speaker 2: for what PC has done lately and what Syracuse has done.

1591
01:17:05,880 --> 01:17:08,960
Speaker 2: Complete fading away. You have no depth. This happens every year.

1592
01:17:09,080 --> 01:17:13,479
Speaker 2: Wyoming six point favorite over Colorado State. I don't think

1593
01:17:13,520 --> 01:17:15,160
Speaker 2: I have anything as now. Keep an eye on the app.

1594
01:17:15,200 --> 01:17:16,800
Speaker 2: Do anything here for you?

1595
01:17:16,840 --> 01:17:18,800
Speaker 3: No, I mean I can't, even though the number for

1596
01:17:19,040 --> 01:17:21,599
Speaker 3: Syracuse is completely off where I think it should be.

1597
01:17:21,880 --> 01:17:24,160
Speaker 3: They're lifeless. I took them last week against Virginia Tech.

1598
01:17:24,200 --> 01:17:25,840
Speaker 3: They have nothing left in the tank. They can still

1599
01:17:25,840 --> 01:17:28,240
Speaker 3: make a bowl. They're coming home to play that three

1600
01:17:28,280 --> 01:17:30,800
Speaker 3: blowouts got into the by showed up against Virginia Tech

1601
01:17:30,840 --> 01:17:33,240
Speaker 3: and they were completely lifeless. So I am definitely not

1602
01:17:33,280 --> 01:17:37,240
Speaker 3: going to get behind Syracuse here in this spot. As

1603
01:17:37,280 --> 01:17:40,040
Speaker 3: far as Colorado State and Wyoming, really it's all about

1604
01:17:40,040 --> 01:17:44,799
Speaker 3: the explosives. Can Colorado State generate enough against the Wyoming defense.

1605
01:17:44,840 --> 01:17:47,040
Speaker 3: It's generally pretty good at home it's stopping that. But

1606
01:17:47,080 --> 01:17:50,519
Speaker 3: when you look at EPA on these two teams, Wyoming's

1607
01:17:50,520 --> 01:17:52,960
Speaker 3: outside the top one hundred against pass explosives. That is

1608
01:17:53,040 --> 01:17:56,040
Speaker 3: not a good look whatsoever. Plus coverage outside the top

1609
01:17:56,040 --> 01:17:59,200
Speaker 3: fifty per PFF. They do stop the big play, they're

1610
01:17:59,200 --> 01:18:01,080
Speaker 3: not very good at stopping pass and that's what you

1611
01:18:01,120 --> 01:18:03,040
Speaker 3: have to do against Colorado State. They don't generate any

1612
01:18:03,080 --> 01:18:05,760
Speaker 3: havoc either. So steam on Coloro State is real.

1613
01:18:06,240 --> 01:18:08,439
Speaker 2: All right, let's be on to second down, and let's

1614
01:18:08,439 --> 01:18:10,320
Speaker 2: go with our favorite overdog.

1615
01:18:10,600 --> 01:18:12,240
Speaker 3: It's called the overdog parlay.

1616
01:18:12,439 --> 01:18:15,959
Speaker 2: That's our favorite favorite. I already mentioned this earlier, South Carolina.

1617
01:18:16,400 --> 01:18:19,439
Speaker 2: This is a get right spot. Just huge talent in

1618
01:18:19,479 --> 01:18:22,040
Speaker 2: this match as well. South Gone is at the toughest

1619
01:18:22,040 --> 01:18:26,360
Speaker 2: schedule in the country, six losses to ranked teams, been

1620
01:18:26,479 --> 01:18:30,360
Speaker 2: unlucky on fourth downs turnovers. This is a good matchup

1621
01:18:30,400 --> 01:18:32,519
Speaker 2: for them as well, and Jacksonville State uses tempo not

1622
01:18:32,520 --> 01:18:34,400
Speaker 2: what you want with a big dog South Gone and

1623
01:18:34,439 --> 01:18:36,680
Speaker 2: Spencer Roulag and have plenty of opportunities to run this

1624
01:18:36,800 --> 01:18:39,160
Speaker 2: up and get right game. Jacksonville State also might just

1625
01:18:39,160 --> 01:18:43,479
Speaker 2: wrest some guys. They have bigger aspirations and they're just overmatched. Here,

1626
01:18:44,080 --> 01:18:47,720
Speaker 2: give me the home Cocks in the battle of the

1627
01:18:47,760 --> 01:18:50,040
Speaker 2: game Cocks where you're going to go them?

1628
01:18:50,479 --> 01:18:53,880
Speaker 3: Well, we need another West Virginia win to get over

1629
01:18:54,160 --> 01:18:56,240
Speaker 3: the season win total that we took it plus money

1630
01:18:56,240 --> 01:18:57,880
Speaker 3: on the five. I think they're gonna pull it off

1631
01:18:57,920 --> 01:18:59,639
Speaker 3: here and Neil Brown's gonna save his job. I can't

1632
01:18:59,680 --> 01:19:01,519
Speaker 3: believe the Mountaineers have done so well this season and

1633
01:19:01,560 --> 01:19:04,280
Speaker 3: now they get a BYU team that is dying for

1634
01:19:04,320 --> 01:19:06,840
Speaker 3: the season to end. Has not gone well for Colonie

1635
01:19:06,880 --> 01:19:09,080
Speaker 3: Sataki in his first year in the Big Twelve. But

1636
01:19:09,080 --> 01:19:10,960
Speaker 3: more importantly, when you take on West Virginia, you have

1637
01:19:11,000 --> 01:19:13,400
Speaker 3: to be prepared to defend the run. Mountaineers run at

1638
01:19:13,400 --> 01:19:16,439
Speaker 3: about sixty four percent behind a brutal rushing attack that

1639
01:19:16,520 --> 01:19:18,200
Speaker 3: could be really tough on other teams. And when you

1640
01:19:18,240 --> 01:19:21,280
Speaker 3: look at the metrics for BYU, it's just not there whatsoever.

1641
01:19:21,439 --> 01:19:23,960
Speaker 3: These are even strength of schedules here between these two teams.

1642
01:19:24,120 --> 01:19:27,080
Speaker 3: But BYU is ninety seventh and defensive stuff rate.

1643
01:19:27,280 --> 01:19:29,240
Speaker 2: Their front stins nine yards.

1644
01:19:29,280 --> 01:19:31,439
Speaker 3: It's bad. West Virginia is gonna have a field day here.

1645
01:19:31,880 --> 01:19:34,160
Speaker 3: Bowl season right around the corner. West Virginia is going

1646
01:19:34,160 --> 01:19:35,160
Speaker 3: to be a part of it. There's going to be

1647
01:19:35,160 --> 01:19:35,880
Speaker 3: a blowout here.

1648
01:19:36,760 --> 01:19:39,080
Speaker 2: Yeah. BYU has been a complete fraud all year with

1649
01:19:39,120 --> 01:19:42,720
Speaker 2: some fraudulent wins in West Virginia a tough spot or

1650
01:19:42,720 --> 01:19:45,479
Speaker 2: second straight road game, and West you should be able

1651
01:19:45,520 --> 01:19:49,240
Speaker 2: to run wild here for close things out. Let's go

1652
01:19:49,320 --> 01:19:56,719
Speaker 2: with our money line underdog Varla turning good weekends into

1653
01:19:56,960 --> 01:19:58,080
Speaker 2: great weekends.

1654
01:19:58,560 --> 01:20:01,120
Speaker 3: It's time for the money parlay.

1655
01:20:01,920 --> 01:20:04,840
Speaker 2: I already mentioned mine earlier. You thought I was crazy, Well,

1656
01:20:04,960 --> 01:20:09,439
Speaker 2: I think you're crazy. H Middle Tennessee is going to

1657
01:20:09,520 --> 01:20:12,240
Speaker 2: Las Cruces and winning this game and keeping their ball

1658
01:20:12,280 --> 01:20:16,240
Speaker 2: hopes alive against the fraudulent in Mexico state team. Where

1659
01:20:16,240 --> 01:20:18,680
Speaker 2: are you going? You're staying? You're also going Conference to USA.

1660
01:20:18,840 --> 01:20:21,080
Speaker 3: We definitely have enough exposure to Conference to USA. After

1661
01:20:21,120 --> 01:20:23,320
Speaker 3: a whole month of watching them on Tuesday and Wednesday nights,

1662
01:20:23,360 --> 01:20:25,240
Speaker 3: we know these teams better than we ever have in

1663
01:20:25,280 --> 01:20:27,120
Speaker 3: the history of the podcast, but I switched the helmets

1664
01:20:27,160 --> 01:20:30,599
Speaker 3: up behind me. We moved minor nation over. I expect

1665
01:20:30,640 --> 01:20:32,519
Speaker 3: to hear some calls on the voicemail this week. Listen.

1666
01:20:32,600 --> 01:20:35,000
Speaker 3: Western Kentucky is a team that I have been discussed

1667
01:20:35,080 --> 01:20:38,080
Speaker 3: with the entire season, especially on defense. It has fallen

1668
01:20:38,160 --> 01:20:42,160
Speaker 3: off a map, near dead last night. Can't stop a nosebley.

1669
01:20:42,240 --> 01:20:44,160
Speaker 3: The defense is so bad. They're so bad at havoc,

1670
01:20:44,160 --> 01:20:46,639
Speaker 3: they're bad against the run, but more importantly, they're almost

1671
01:20:46,680 --> 01:20:49,800
Speaker 3: worse than the nation and allowing explosive plays. What does

1672
01:20:49,920 --> 01:20:53,120
Speaker 3: UTEP do. It doesn't matter who their quarterback is, whether

1673
01:20:53,120 --> 01:20:56,120
Speaker 3: it's Gavin Hardison or their backup. They are top twenty

1674
01:20:56,120 --> 01:20:58,880
Speaker 3: five in the nation and completing past explosives. I expect

1675
01:20:58,920 --> 01:21:01,080
Speaker 3: them to do that to Western Kentucky all day. Western

1676
01:21:01,160 --> 01:21:03,720
Speaker 3: Kentucky cannot stop anybody in the red zone, anybody at

1677
01:21:03,720 --> 01:21:06,960
Speaker 3: midfield at no point, and that offensive attack just has

1678
01:21:07,000 --> 01:21:09,160
Speaker 3: not had the teeth lately. They're good in the red zone,

1679
01:21:09,479 --> 01:21:11,720
Speaker 3: but they're just not having any kind of success rate

1680
01:21:11,800 --> 01:21:14,799
Speaker 3: moving the chains. It's all about EPA with Western Kentucky.

1681
01:21:15,040 --> 01:21:16,640
Speaker 3: Youtub's going to be able to throw a little bit

1682
01:21:16,720 --> 01:21:18,439
Speaker 3: of a little bit of a kink into that. So

1683
01:21:18,520 --> 01:21:21,960
Speaker 3: I love Minor Nation. This week, rise up, let's get

1684
01:21:22,000 --> 01:21:22,639
Speaker 3: that went out right.

1685
01:21:23,479 --> 01:21:25,840
Speaker 2: I have them circle for my round robin too, so

1686
01:21:26,040 --> 01:21:30,799
Speaker 2: like this we conference to USA Money Line Underdog Harlay.

1687
01:21:31,080 --> 01:21:33,240
Speaker 2: Throw that in. Make sure you check us out ten

1688
01:21:33,280 --> 01:21:36,200
Speaker 2: thirty am Eastern Saturday, BBOC Live we will have our

1689
01:21:36,280 --> 01:21:39,040
Speaker 2: round robin and cover all the market games with myself,

1690
01:21:39,080 --> 01:21:41,680
Speaker 2: Colin and Bred McMurphy. But thanks for tuning in. Make

1691
01:21:41,680 --> 01:21:45,120
Speaker 2: sure you subscribe on Subscribe subscribe, leave a review, five

1692
01:21:45,120 --> 01:21:47,439
Speaker 2: star review. We'll do giveaways on the recap show on Sunday.

1693
01:21:48,320 --> 01:21:51,720
Speaker 2: Yell cry, scream about us betting Clemson and USC. Oh god,

1694
01:21:51,720 --> 01:21:55,000
Speaker 2: if they both don't cover the voice's gonna get blown

1695
01:21:55,000 --> 01:21:57,280
Speaker 2: out nine to five nine bad beat. But thanks for

1696
01:21:57,320 --> 01:21:59,320
Speaker 2: tuning in. Make sure you check out the Group of

1697
01:21:59,360 --> 01:22:03,080
Speaker 2: Five guys. Also every Wednesday New BCS which is on

1698
01:22:03,120 --> 01:22:05,320
Speaker 2: YouTube and on this podcast channel, make sure you check

1699
01:22:05,360 --> 01:22:07,080
Speaker 2: that out. And then again we'll have the recap episode

1700
01:22:07,080 --> 01:22:09,920
Speaker 2: and then we'll be back for week eleven. Crazy enjoy

1701
01:22:10,240 --> 01:22:14,400
Speaker 2: the amazing slate. Let's have another winning weekend and we

1702
01:22:14,439 --> 01:22:17,679
Speaker 2: will see you on Saturday. Cheers.

1703
01:22:18,080 --> 01:22:34,320
Speaker 3: Peace Out. Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If

1704
01:22:34,360 --> 01:22:36,960
Speaker 3: you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,

1705
01:22:37,240 --> 01:22:39,840
Speaker 3: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight

1706
01:22:39,960 --> 01:22:40,759
Speaker 3: hundred gambler