1 00:00:04,760 --> 00:00:08,840 Speaker 1: On this episode of Newtsworld. When Russia invaded Ukraine on 2 00:00:08,840 --> 00:00:12,440 Speaker 1: February twenty fourth, the entire world let out a huge gasp. 3 00:00:13,119 --> 00:00:15,760 Speaker 1: Since then, every Allied country in the West has been 4 00:00:15,800 --> 00:00:18,120 Speaker 1: scrambling to come up with a plan as to how 5 00:00:18,120 --> 00:00:22,400 Speaker 1: to deal with Russian President Vladimir Putin's invasion without escalating 6 00:00:22,440 --> 00:00:26,960 Speaker 1: things further. Last week, I released a podcast episode entitled 7 00:00:27,320 --> 00:00:30,640 Speaker 1: Understanding Putin because I think it's critical we understand who 8 00:00:30,640 --> 00:00:33,840 Speaker 1: Putin is and who we're dealing with. And I drew 9 00:00:33,880 --> 00:00:36,440 Speaker 1: directly from the long speech he had made to the 10 00:00:36,520 --> 00:00:40,720 Speaker 1: Russian people. One of my biggest concerns now is the 11 00:00:40,760 --> 00:00:43,720 Speaker 1: fact that Putin has put Russia's nuclear forces on alert, 12 00:00:44,320 --> 00:00:46,479 Speaker 1: and I think this is a direct challenge to the 13 00:00:46,520 --> 00:00:50,080 Speaker 1: West and to the United States and President Biden. And 14 00:00:50,200 --> 00:00:52,800 Speaker 1: I noticed that President Biden has said Americans didn't need 15 00:00:52,840 --> 00:00:55,800 Speaker 1: to worry about a nuclear war with Russia, and I 16 00:00:55,840 --> 00:00:58,920 Speaker 1: just wanted to have this conversation because I think every 17 00:00:58,920 --> 00:01:02,280 Speaker 1: American should be worried. As long as there are nuclear 18 00:01:02,280 --> 00:01:06,440 Speaker 1: weapons in the world, they are the most immediate threat 19 00:01:06,840 --> 00:01:10,200 Speaker 1: to our survival as a species and as a civilization. 20 00:01:10,840 --> 00:01:14,319 Speaker 1: I think that it's a very important topic I'm really 21 00:01:14,360 --> 00:01:17,840 Speaker 1: pleased to welcome my guest, Joe SIRENSONI. He is a 22 00:01:17,959 --> 00:01:23,559 Speaker 1: Quincy Institute Distinguished Fellow and the author of both Nuclear Nightmares, 23 00:01:23,840 --> 00:01:27,040 Speaker 1: Securing the World before it is Too Late and Bomb Scare, 24 00:01:27,520 --> 00:01:43,600 Speaker 1: The History and Future of Nuclear Weapons. Joe, thank you 25 00:01:44,120 --> 00:01:47,480 Speaker 1: for joining me on this topic, and let me start 26 00:01:47,520 --> 00:01:50,600 Speaker 1: with your own background, because you have a very interesting 27 00:01:51,080 --> 00:01:55,680 Speaker 1: and very practical involvement in thinking about nuclear weapons. How 28 00:01:55,720 --> 00:01:59,160 Speaker 1: did you get interested in this topic? Actually, it was 29 00:01:59,240 --> 00:02:02,640 Speaker 1: the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan that got me interested in 30 00:02:02,640 --> 00:02:06,640 Speaker 1: this topic because I became convinced back in nineteen seventy nine, 31 00:02:06,880 --> 00:02:10,960 Speaker 1: when I was just applying to graduate school, that we 32 00:02:11,080 --> 00:02:13,040 Speaker 1: might be at the cusp of World War three. And 33 00:02:13,080 --> 00:02:16,120 Speaker 1: you may remember the concerns in the late seventies early 34 00:02:16,160 --> 00:02:19,760 Speaker 1: eighties about this, and I shared those concerns that a 35 00:02:19,919 --> 00:02:22,400 Speaker 1: conflict with the Soviet Union might quickly escalate to the 36 00:02:22,560 --> 00:02:26,080 Speaker 1: nuclear level. I went to Georgetown to graduate school to 37 00:02:26,080 --> 00:02:29,080 Speaker 1: pursue my studies, and I was forty years ago, and 38 00:02:29,160 --> 00:02:31,840 Speaker 1: I never left. I then went to work in the 39 00:02:31,880 --> 00:02:34,360 Speaker 1: Congress on the House Arm Services Committee and then the 40 00:02:34,400 --> 00:02:37,640 Speaker 1: Government Operations Committee, and I was assigned nuclear weapons as 41 00:02:37,680 --> 00:02:40,560 Speaker 1: part of my portfolio. So that's where I really learned 42 00:02:40,880 --> 00:02:46,600 Speaker 1: nuclear doctrine, weapons, contracts, deployments, NATO strategy, and I've been 43 00:02:46,680 --> 00:02:49,240 Speaker 1: working in the field ever since. I think tanks as 44 00:02:49,280 --> 00:02:52,360 Speaker 1: head of a philanthropy, the Plowshare's Fund for about twelve years, 45 00:02:52,720 --> 00:02:55,320 Speaker 1: and now back to being an expert. And I was 46 00:02:55,320 --> 00:02:58,120 Speaker 1: gonna say, n between, you also were advising, and I 47 00:02:58,120 --> 00:03:01,640 Speaker 1: think President Obama's team on some of this. I was 48 00:03:01,720 --> 00:03:04,840 Speaker 1: part of the national security team for the Obama campaign 49 00:03:05,280 --> 00:03:08,600 Speaker 1: and helped develop the nuclear strategy that he brought into 50 00:03:08,600 --> 00:03:12,040 Speaker 1: the White House. I share your concerns. I was deeply 51 00:03:12,040 --> 00:03:16,519 Speaker 1: affected by a book called Tomorrow, which was a description 52 00:03:17,160 --> 00:03:20,560 Speaker 1: of a nuclear weapon going off over Kansas City. My 53 00:03:20,639 --> 00:03:23,720 Speaker 1: dad was a Queer soldier, and it was sufficiently vivid 54 00:03:24,240 --> 00:03:26,799 Speaker 1: that I thought, you know, this would really be, in 55 00:03:26,840 --> 00:03:29,720 Speaker 1: many ways the end of our world. And so I've 56 00:03:29,720 --> 00:03:33,240 Speaker 1: been concerned ever since. So let me start at the 57 00:03:33,280 --> 00:03:36,720 Speaker 1: most basic, which is psychological. To what degree do you 58 00:03:36,800 --> 00:03:42,000 Speaker 1: think Putin is simply signaling when he orders his nuclear 59 00:03:42,000 --> 00:03:45,120 Speaker 1: weapon systems to go on what he called an active alert, 60 00:03:45,480 --> 00:03:48,760 Speaker 1: And to what degree do you think he's actually inching 61 00:03:48,800 --> 00:03:52,440 Speaker 1: towards potentially using them. I think most of the commentary 62 00:03:52,480 --> 00:03:55,280 Speaker 1: you've heard about this deals with it at that level, 63 00:03:55,560 --> 00:03:59,080 Speaker 1: at the sort of nuclear theoretical level, where we have 64 00:03:59,200 --> 00:04:04,120 Speaker 1: something called lear signaling, where countries will use threats of 65 00:04:04,200 --> 00:04:08,000 Speaker 1: nuclear use to signal their intent, and that is certainly 66 00:04:08,040 --> 00:04:11,800 Speaker 1: part of what's going on. I mean, clearly Putin wants 67 00:04:11,840 --> 00:04:15,800 Speaker 1: the West to back off. We often think about nuclear 68 00:04:15,840 --> 00:04:19,880 Speaker 1: weapons as providing stability, as sort of keeping the peace, 69 00:04:20,360 --> 00:04:23,320 Speaker 1: preventing conventional wars from happening. But here we have an 70 00:04:23,360 --> 00:04:26,400 Speaker 1: instance where nuclear weapons are being used by Putin as 71 00:04:26,400 --> 00:04:31,600 Speaker 1: a shield. He's using nuclear weapons to enable a conventional conflict, 72 00:04:31,800 --> 00:04:34,840 Speaker 1: and he's warning the West to back off. But there 73 00:04:34,880 --> 00:04:39,440 Speaker 1: are also real world consequences to his announcement. And I 74 00:04:39,480 --> 00:04:43,680 Speaker 1: have to be honest, the Russian command and control system 75 00:04:43,760 --> 00:04:46,600 Speaker 1: is a bit opaque. They don't really publish a lot 76 00:04:46,720 --> 00:04:49,160 Speaker 1: on this. It's not exactly clear what's going on, and 77 00:04:49,240 --> 00:04:52,320 Speaker 1: the term he used isn't one that most of us 78 00:04:52,320 --> 00:04:55,920 Speaker 1: are familiar with. But there are basically four levels to 79 00:04:56,360 --> 00:04:59,560 Speaker 1: nuclear alert status and Russian doctrine, and he appears to 80 00:04:59,600 --> 00:05:03,159 Speaker 1: have rais. He's did from the day to day level, 81 00:05:03,160 --> 00:05:07,080 Speaker 1: which is called constant up to the next level, which 82 00:05:07,160 --> 00:05:09,320 Speaker 1: is called elevated. It's not clear that he's done this, 83 00:05:09,400 --> 00:05:12,760 Speaker 1: but here's what we think has happened. In its basic 84 00:05:12,880 --> 00:05:16,279 Speaker 1: day to day operations, the nuclear commanding control system as 85 00:05:16,320 --> 00:05:20,200 Speaker 1: a mechanism is blocked from implementing a launch order. A 86 00:05:20,279 --> 00:05:23,680 Speaker 1: launch order, if given, would not be connected to the 87 00:05:23,760 --> 00:05:27,880 Speaker 1: nuclear command forces. The wires aren't connected, and what Putin 88 00:05:28,000 --> 00:05:32,760 Speaker 1: appears to have done is basically enable that connection. He's 89 00:05:32,800 --> 00:05:36,159 Speaker 1: taken the safety off the nuclear gun, so now it 90 00:05:36,440 --> 00:05:40,400 Speaker 1: is ready to fire. A launch order from him would 91 00:05:40,480 --> 00:05:45,640 Speaker 1: be implemented. And this has two consequences. One is it 92 00:05:45,800 --> 00:05:50,560 Speaker 1: raises the possibility of launched by accident or miscalculation, something 93 00:05:50,560 --> 00:05:53,560 Speaker 1: that has plagued us throughout the nuclear age, became very 94 00:05:53,560 --> 00:05:57,640 Speaker 1: close during the Cold War several times to war by accident. 95 00:05:58,360 --> 00:06:01,120 Speaker 1: But it also raises the possible that he could do it, 96 00:06:01,800 --> 00:06:06,360 Speaker 1: that in an act of desperation, that he might decide 97 00:06:06,400 --> 00:06:09,800 Speaker 1: that he needs to use the nuclear weapon to prevent 98 00:06:09,960 --> 00:06:13,719 Speaker 1: his defeat. A defeat by Putin's forces in Ukraine was 99 00:06:13,839 --> 00:06:17,120 Speaker 1: something that none of us thought possible four days ago, 100 00:06:17,400 --> 00:06:19,880 Speaker 1: but it is definitely in the realm of possibility now, 101 00:06:20,520 --> 00:06:23,360 Speaker 1: and that should worry all of us. Know. What I'm 102 00:06:23,360 --> 00:06:28,720 Speaker 1: struck by is that, first of all, you could imagine 103 00:06:28,720 --> 00:06:30,840 Speaker 1: a circumstance, and I think this was a one time 104 00:06:30,880 --> 00:06:34,720 Speaker 1: Soviet doctrine where he could decide just to use a 105 00:06:34,720 --> 00:06:39,440 Speaker 1: single tactical nuclear weapon in order to totally intimidate the 106 00:06:39,560 --> 00:06:43,280 Speaker 1: Ukrainians and say I'm prepared. Now, I'm going to use 107 00:06:43,279 --> 00:06:45,520 Speaker 1: it in a very small town, but I'm prepared to 108 00:06:45,560 --> 00:06:49,200 Speaker 1: use it on Kharkiv, Kiev if you guys don't surrender. 109 00:06:49,920 --> 00:06:53,880 Speaker 1: There was a brutality to Soviet doctrine, which I think 110 00:06:53,920 --> 00:06:56,200 Speaker 1: grew out of their experience of World War Two, when 111 00:06:56,200 --> 00:06:58,960 Speaker 1: you lose thirty million people and you end up with 112 00:06:59,040 --> 00:07:02,520 Speaker 1: fights like Stalind, which should, by the way, Stalingrad and 113 00:07:02,600 --> 00:07:06,560 Speaker 1: Leningrad now that those two sieges should have been warnings 114 00:07:06,560 --> 00:07:11,000 Speaker 1: to putin that you get involved in cities and it 115 00:07:11,040 --> 00:07:14,760 Speaker 1: becomes a nightmare. I mean, if the Ukrainians nerve doesn't 116 00:07:14,800 --> 00:07:18,679 Speaker 1: break their capacity to absorb a lot of Russian troops 117 00:07:18,720 --> 00:07:21,360 Speaker 1: in a place like Kiev was just enormous. Well, you're 118 00:07:21,400 --> 00:07:25,920 Speaker 1: absolutely right about Soviet strategy, but it's also Russian strategy. Again, 119 00:07:26,000 --> 00:07:28,880 Speaker 1: it's not clear if this is official Russian doctrine, but 120 00:07:28,920 --> 00:07:33,080 Speaker 1: there have been several articles by Russian military officers and 121 00:07:33,160 --> 00:07:37,160 Speaker 1: those in the defense ministry about a strategy they call 122 00:07:37,640 --> 00:07:41,560 Speaker 1: escalate to de escalate, and they're concerned about their conventional 123 00:07:41,560 --> 00:07:45,760 Speaker 1: inferiority versus the West, and the strategy is similar to 124 00:07:45,800 --> 00:07:48,520 Speaker 1: what the NATO force has had against the Warsaw Pact 125 00:07:49,040 --> 00:07:52,080 Speaker 1: in the fifties, sixties, seventies, and eighties that if the 126 00:07:52,160 --> 00:07:55,640 Speaker 1: Warsaw Pact were to power through the Folder Gap with 127 00:07:55,800 --> 00:07:59,280 Speaker 1: tank divisions, we would have to use nuclear weapons first 128 00:07:59,320 --> 00:08:02,400 Speaker 1: to defeat the those forces. This is a variation on 129 00:08:02,480 --> 00:08:05,600 Speaker 1: that kind of idea. Knowing that their inferior to US 130 00:08:05,640 --> 00:08:10,080 Speaker 1: and NATO conventional forces, if they are losing a conventional conflict, 131 00:08:10,120 --> 00:08:13,440 Speaker 1: the argument goes, they will use a nuclear weapon first 132 00:08:13,560 --> 00:08:17,960 Speaker 1: to signal their seriousness and the stakes in this, and 133 00:08:18,000 --> 00:08:20,520 Speaker 1: they believe that will cause the West to back off. 134 00:08:21,160 --> 00:08:24,080 Speaker 1: Now I don't think that is what the West would do, 135 00:08:24,720 --> 00:08:27,440 Speaker 1: but you can see right away you are really rolling 136 00:08:27,440 --> 00:08:30,640 Speaker 1: the nuclear dice here by that first use, and the 137 00:08:30,760 --> 00:08:33,800 Speaker 1: possibility of the US or NATO would answer in kind 138 00:08:34,120 --> 00:08:36,440 Speaker 1: and then we're off to the races. Yeah. I had 139 00:08:36,520 --> 00:08:39,520 Speaker 1: somebody I worked with who had been an army colonel 140 00:08:39,600 --> 00:08:44,800 Speaker 1: who had been assigned to talk with the former Soviet leadership, 141 00:08:45,360 --> 00:08:48,520 Speaker 1: and that brief period right after the collapse of the empire, 142 00:08:49,200 --> 00:08:51,920 Speaker 1: and he talked with a senior Soviet general who said 143 00:08:52,480 --> 00:08:55,640 Speaker 1: one of their plans, if we did in fact end 144 00:08:55,679 --> 00:08:58,560 Speaker 1: up in a war with NATO, was to have thirty 145 00:08:58,640 --> 00:09:04,480 Speaker 1: six nuclear weapons go off in Hamburg in order to 146 00:09:04,480 --> 00:09:09,560 Speaker 1: communicate the intensity of their determination. Now, since one nuclear 147 00:09:09,600 --> 00:09:13,560 Speaker 1: weapon would have eliminated Hamburg, this was clearly a psychological 148 00:09:14,080 --> 00:09:18,280 Speaker 1: signaling theory. And you can imagine, I mean, Putin is 149 00:09:18,280 --> 00:09:22,040 Speaker 1: sitting there by himself, apparently with almost no officials who 150 00:09:22,080 --> 00:09:26,520 Speaker 1: can advise him, whose advice you'll listen to, and really, 151 00:09:26,559 --> 00:09:30,640 Speaker 1: I suspect right now feeling humiliated that this was supposed 152 00:09:30,640 --> 00:09:33,800 Speaker 1: to be a walkover. The Ukrainians were supposed to collapse, 153 00:09:34,240 --> 00:09:37,160 Speaker 1: It was supposed to be easy. The world was supposed 154 00:09:37,160 --> 00:09:38,679 Speaker 1: to not be able to react because it would be 155 00:09:38,760 --> 00:09:42,600 Speaker 1: so fast, And every single part of their plan now 156 00:09:43,160 --> 00:09:47,760 Speaker 1: is in a mess. Yes, so you have a frustrated, humiliated, 157 00:09:48,000 --> 00:09:53,280 Speaker 1: angry megalomaniac who has the ability to launch one or 158 00:09:53,320 --> 00:09:57,000 Speaker 1: a thousand nuclear weapons and they would go off within 159 00:09:57,080 --> 00:10:00,800 Speaker 1: about twenty minutes of his order. We've been talking a 160 00:10:00,800 --> 00:10:03,000 Speaker 1: lot about whether he will do this, but we should 161 00:10:03,000 --> 00:10:05,440 Speaker 1: focus just in the fact that he could do this, 162 00:10:05,840 --> 00:10:08,319 Speaker 1: that we've allowed it to get to this point where 163 00:10:08,360 --> 00:10:13,280 Speaker 1: one madman could end human civilization. When I was teaching, 164 00:10:13,679 --> 00:10:17,240 Speaker 1: I would do a sequencing where I would say, okay, 165 00:10:17,920 --> 00:10:23,439 Speaker 1: at this moment, and ICBM left mine at North Dakota, 166 00:10:23,480 --> 00:10:27,280 Speaker 1: and I'd walk them through twenty eight minutes for the delivery. 167 00:10:27,640 --> 00:10:31,200 Speaker 1: I think we're now so far away from the thinking 168 00:10:31,200 --> 00:10:33,920 Speaker 1: of the Cold War, and so far away from having 169 00:10:33,960 --> 00:10:37,080 Speaker 1: to deal with a grim reality that we're sort of 170 00:10:37,160 --> 00:10:40,920 Speaker 1: coasting mentally, I think, and that worries me a lot, 171 00:10:40,960 --> 00:10:46,160 Speaker 1: including all of the Western leadership, which is, I think, 172 00:10:46,320 --> 00:10:51,400 Speaker 1: presuming that this is a conventional world. And yet the 173 00:10:51,400 --> 00:10:55,079 Speaker 1: one characteristic that Putin has that no other country has 174 00:10:55,120 --> 00:10:59,400 Speaker 1: accept us is a massive number of nuclear weapons. I mean, 175 00:10:59,440 --> 00:11:03,160 Speaker 1: even the Chines have a modest nuclear force compared to 176 00:11:03,360 --> 00:11:06,640 Speaker 1: the Russian system. Let's just put that into perspective. The 177 00:11:06,880 --> 00:11:10,400 Speaker 1: Chinese have about three hundred nuclear weapons, about a hundred 178 00:11:10,400 --> 00:11:14,200 Speaker 1: of which can reach US on their long range ballistic missiles, 179 00:11:14,240 --> 00:11:16,720 Speaker 1: and they have long considered that to be what they 180 00:11:16,800 --> 00:11:20,120 Speaker 1: called minimum deterrence. So that would deter US from attacking them, 181 00:11:20,120 --> 00:11:23,440 Speaker 1: and they're right, it does, so you know it does, 182 00:11:23,840 --> 00:11:27,360 Speaker 1: because one nuclear weapon on one American city would be 183 00:11:27,400 --> 00:11:30,880 Speaker 1: a catastrophe beyond our experience. Ten nuclear weapons on ten 184 00:11:31,160 --> 00:11:35,320 Speaker 1: American cities would be a level of destruction beyond human history. 185 00:11:35,559 --> 00:11:38,760 Speaker 1: And one hundred nuclear weapons is unthinkable. I mean, it 186 00:11:38,800 --> 00:11:42,200 Speaker 1: certainly would eliminate the United States as a functioning nation. 187 00:11:42,559 --> 00:11:45,320 Speaker 1: And now they're talking about increasing that force and maybe 188 00:11:45,400 --> 00:11:49,559 Speaker 1: doubling and tripling at evening. Well, Russia has six thousand 189 00:11:49,920 --> 00:11:53,680 Speaker 1: nuclear weapons, about two thousand in what they call, you know, 190 00:11:53,760 --> 00:11:57,280 Speaker 1: operational status, ready to go. About a thousand of those 191 00:11:57,320 --> 00:11:59,880 Speaker 1: can be launched within minutes. So this is a force 192 00:12:00,160 --> 00:12:04,800 Speaker 1: that could, within twenty eight minutes wipe out everything that 193 00:12:04,920 --> 00:12:08,440 Speaker 1: humanity has constructed over the millennia. It is an insane 194 00:12:08,800 --> 00:12:29,480 Speaker 1: level of destructive force. You know. I did a paper 195 00:12:29,480 --> 00:12:32,800 Speaker 1: on this when I literally was a child. I was 196 00:12:32,880 --> 00:12:35,520 Speaker 1: a sophomore in high school and my dad was stationed 197 00:12:35,559 --> 00:12:39,080 Speaker 1: at Stuttgart, which was the seventh Army headquarters, so their 198 00:12:39,120 --> 00:12:42,520 Speaker 1: library was kind of extraordinary, and I convinced one of 199 00:12:42,559 --> 00:12:45,040 Speaker 1: my professors in high school to let me spend the 200 00:12:45,200 --> 00:12:47,520 Speaker 1: entire year doing a paper on the Balance of World power, 201 00:12:48,000 --> 00:12:50,120 Speaker 1: and he told me many years later he was so 202 00:12:50,160 --> 00:12:53,120 Speaker 1: excited that any of his students would write anything that 203 00:12:53,240 --> 00:12:56,120 Speaker 1: he was happy to have me go do this. And 204 00:12:57,080 --> 00:12:59,360 Speaker 1: I really came up with sort of a minimum to 205 00:12:59,520 --> 00:13:04,720 Speaker 1: terrence argument that somewhere around two hundred weapons, you frankly 206 00:13:04,720 --> 00:13:07,920 Speaker 1: are killing everything you can plausibly kill. But what happened, 207 00:13:07,920 --> 00:13:10,960 Speaker 1: in part was you got into this counter force doctrine 208 00:13:10,960 --> 00:13:14,920 Speaker 1: that said, we have to have enough surplus that even 209 00:13:14,960 --> 00:13:18,680 Speaker 1: if you launch a first strike, we have guaranteed enough 210 00:13:18,720 --> 00:13:22,040 Speaker 1: survival that we will be able to punish you so 211 00:13:22,120 --> 00:13:25,640 Speaker 1: badly that it would be totally irrational to launch her 212 00:13:25,640 --> 00:13:29,199 Speaker 1: first strike. And that then, particularly in the sixties and seventies, 213 00:13:29,440 --> 00:13:31,440 Speaker 1: got to be a real arms race. As you know 214 00:13:32,000 --> 00:13:35,559 Speaker 1: and many of our listeners may not know, but there 215 00:13:35,640 --> 00:13:39,440 Speaker 1: was also a period where very senior, very smart people 216 00:13:39,920 --> 00:13:44,080 Speaker 1: spent an enormous amount of time thinking about this, and 217 00:13:44,160 --> 00:13:47,800 Speaker 1: we're really worried about it, and we came reasonably close 218 00:13:47,840 --> 00:13:51,160 Speaker 1: to a nuclear war over Cuba. There's an incident you 219 00:13:51,240 --> 00:13:53,120 Speaker 1: might be able to explain far better than I could, 220 00:13:53,480 --> 00:13:56,240 Speaker 1: where I think it was in nineteen eighty three, we 221 00:13:56,240 --> 00:14:01,199 Speaker 1: were engaged in a basically going through a drill, but 222 00:14:01,240 --> 00:14:04,880 Speaker 1: the drill was so realistic that the Soviets actually thought 223 00:14:04,880 --> 00:14:07,480 Speaker 1: we might be launching a first strike, and that may 224 00:14:07,520 --> 00:14:10,760 Speaker 1: have been actually the closest we came to a truly 225 00:14:10,920 --> 00:14:15,760 Speaker 1: disastrous exchange. You're exactly right. We would in effect doing 226 00:14:15,840 --> 00:14:19,160 Speaker 1: something that Putin just did. We were doing a major 227 00:14:19,560 --> 00:14:24,240 Speaker 1: conventional NATO exercise, but exercising the integration of nuclear forces 228 00:14:24,280 --> 00:14:28,040 Speaker 1: with it, so firing nuclear capable systems as part of that. 229 00:14:28,640 --> 00:14:31,360 Speaker 1: Putin just did this the week before the invasion in 230 00:14:31,400 --> 00:14:34,680 Speaker 1: the exercises in Belarus and Russia where he tested seven 231 00:14:34,720 --> 00:14:38,400 Speaker 1: different types of nuclear capable systems. But at that time 232 00:14:38,560 --> 00:14:42,320 Speaker 1: the Soviet leadership thought that this was a prelude to 233 00:14:42,320 --> 00:14:44,600 Speaker 1: a nuclear ward in some scenarios, this is how you 234 00:14:44,640 --> 00:14:46,720 Speaker 1: would do it to catch them by surprise. This is 235 00:14:46,720 --> 00:14:49,840 Speaker 1: how you would implement it first strike. The exchanges started 236 00:14:49,880 --> 00:14:53,960 Speaker 1: going back and forth on their networks and we intercepted them. Interestingly, 237 00:14:53,960 --> 00:14:57,200 Speaker 1: when Ronald Reagan learned about this, he couldn't believe it. 238 00:14:57,720 --> 00:15:00,120 Speaker 1: He didn't think that Russia could possibly think that we 239 00:15:00,120 --> 00:15:03,440 Speaker 1: would attack them first, because that has not been his intention, 240 00:15:03,760 --> 00:15:06,720 Speaker 1: and it's scared him and it's one of the things 241 00:15:06,720 --> 00:15:09,920 Speaker 1: that led him in his second term to become a 242 00:15:10,000 --> 00:15:13,400 Speaker 1: nuclear abolitionist. You may remember in his second inaugural address 243 00:15:13,800 --> 00:15:16,160 Speaker 1: he said we should eliminate nuclear weapons from the face 244 00:15:16,200 --> 00:15:17,720 Speaker 1: of the earth, and then he went and did something 245 00:15:17,800 --> 00:15:20,960 Speaker 1: about it. Now, he didn't achieve that goal, but he 246 00:15:21,040 --> 00:15:24,960 Speaker 1: did achieve remarkable breakthroughs in the Intermediate Nuclear Forces Treaty 247 00:15:24,960 --> 00:15:27,720 Speaker 1: in his Star Treaty, and he really broke the back 248 00:15:27,840 --> 00:15:31,240 Speaker 1: of the arms race, the first treaties that eliminated nuclear weapons, 249 00:15:31,280 --> 00:15:34,600 Speaker 1: not just limited them. And we've been on a downward 250 00:15:34,600 --> 00:15:38,080 Speaker 1: course ever since then. So we've gone from sixty six 251 00:15:38,160 --> 00:15:40,960 Speaker 1: thousand nuclear weapons in the world, most held by the 252 00:15:41,040 --> 00:15:44,800 Speaker 1: United States and Russia, down to about thirteen thousand today, 253 00:15:45,200 --> 00:15:48,320 Speaker 1: most held by the United States in Russia. Lower levels 254 00:15:48,400 --> 00:15:52,160 Speaker 1: dramatic decreases, but it's all stopped. We haven't had a 255 00:15:52,160 --> 00:15:55,800 Speaker 1: new reduction treaty for twelve years and there's no talk 256 00:15:55,840 --> 00:15:59,080 Speaker 1: of any and so what you're seeing unfold in these 257 00:15:59,200 --> 00:16:03,000 Speaker 1: days is a reminder that we might not have been 258 00:16:03,040 --> 00:16:06,880 Speaker 1: thinking about nuclear weapons. But putin has Well, I was 259 00:16:06,920 --> 00:16:09,240 Speaker 1: going to ask you what that because when he went 260 00:16:09,520 --> 00:16:16,840 Speaker 1: to the nuclear exercise before the invasion of Ukraine. My 261 00:16:16,960 --> 00:16:22,400 Speaker 1: immediate interpretation was that he was setting the stage to 262 00:16:22,520 --> 00:16:26,720 Speaker 1: be prepared to threaten if the West, from his perspective, 263 00:16:27,160 --> 00:16:31,880 Speaker 1: overreacted to what he saw as a police action. I mean, 264 00:16:31,920 --> 00:16:34,200 Speaker 1: if you read his speech, which I did this podcast 265 00:16:34,200 --> 00:16:37,320 Speaker 1: about last week, it's very clear in his speech he 266 00:16:37,440 --> 00:16:42,040 Speaker 1: thinks Ukraine is part of Russia. It's remarkable parallel to 267 00:16:42,160 --> 00:16:46,440 Speaker 1: the Beijing view that Taiwan is the nineteenth province and 268 00:16:46,600 --> 00:16:51,320 Speaker 1: cannot possibly be independent because a simply part of integral China. Well, 269 00:16:51,360 --> 00:16:54,360 Speaker 1: he's making the case. Look, this is my neighborhood, this 270 00:16:54,440 --> 00:16:59,320 Speaker 1: is my area. Why are you reacting to me dealing 271 00:16:59,360 --> 00:17:02,920 Speaker 1: with my own neighborhood. And I think he's probably as 272 00:17:03,000 --> 00:17:08,200 Speaker 1: much shocked by the unanimity of the harshness of the response, 273 00:17:09,000 --> 00:17:11,400 Speaker 1: of which I think in some ways the most powerful 274 00:17:11,920 --> 00:17:15,080 Speaker 1: is the denial of airspace. I mean that you literally, 275 00:17:15,119 --> 00:17:18,040 Speaker 1: as a Russian businessman, can't figure out now how to 276 00:17:18,080 --> 00:17:21,080 Speaker 1: go west, you know, unless you do it by train 277 00:17:21,200 --> 00:17:23,520 Speaker 1: or car. Well, I wanted to ask you about this. 278 00:17:23,600 --> 00:17:26,560 Speaker 1: It's a touch off the nuclear focus, but I was 279 00:17:26,600 --> 00:17:28,720 Speaker 1: wondering why you make of this, because we've never seen 280 00:17:28,760 --> 00:17:32,640 Speaker 1: anything like this. You know, the word Unprecedented gets bandied 281 00:17:32,640 --> 00:17:35,080 Speaker 1: about a lot these days, and that's because we've never 282 00:17:35,119 --> 00:17:39,040 Speaker 1: seen this. For example, this nuclear alert level, this is unprecedented. 283 00:17:39,560 --> 00:17:42,879 Speaker 1: You have to go back to the seventies maybe to 284 00:17:42,920 --> 00:17:45,320 Speaker 1: see anything like this. The last time I know that 285 00:17:45,359 --> 00:17:47,760 Speaker 1: the US or Russia did this was back in nineteen 286 00:17:47,840 --> 00:17:51,240 Speaker 1: seventy three when Richard Nixon brought us to Defcon three 287 00:17:51,359 --> 00:17:55,120 Speaker 1: during the Yamkapor War. But again that was influenced more 288 00:17:55,160 --> 00:17:59,000 Speaker 1: by his impeachment trials. Look. I talked to Kissinger about that, 289 00:17:59,400 --> 00:18:02,880 Speaker 1: and he said, this is a perfect example of signaling. 290 00:18:03,240 --> 00:18:07,000 Speaker 1: They were signaling to the Soviets to stay out as 291 00:18:07,000 --> 00:18:11,120 Speaker 1: the Israelis annihilated the Soviet armed and trained and equipped forces, 292 00:18:11,520 --> 00:18:15,359 Speaker 1: and the Soviets were very humiliated by the decisive defeat 293 00:18:15,400 --> 00:18:18,159 Speaker 1: of forces that they had created, and there was a 294 00:18:18,240 --> 00:18:21,560 Speaker 1: real fear that they were going to have volunteers show up, 295 00:18:21,920 --> 00:18:24,760 Speaker 1: probably in Syria and Egypt, you know, so they actually 296 00:18:24,800 --> 00:18:27,520 Speaker 1: have Soviet troops. But I don't think either Nixon or 297 00:18:27,520 --> 00:18:31,440 Speaker 1: a Kissinger had any intent of using nuclear weapons. It 298 00:18:31,600 --> 00:18:35,200 Speaker 1: was just saying, look, we're really serious about this. And frankly, 299 00:18:35,200 --> 00:18:37,000 Speaker 1: one of the reasons I was so much wanted to 300 00:18:37,040 --> 00:18:40,600 Speaker 1: get you to do this today. Is what frightens me 301 00:18:41,440 --> 00:18:45,960 Speaker 1: is our folks aren't worried. It is crazy to have 302 00:18:46,040 --> 00:18:49,160 Speaker 1: a guy who has six thousand nuclear weapons. And this 303 00:18:49,200 --> 00:18:52,359 Speaker 1: was my thought two weeks ago when he did the exercise, 304 00:18:53,119 --> 00:18:56,080 Speaker 1: because I said, my thinking was they had to have 305 00:18:56,160 --> 00:18:59,840 Speaker 1: planned and thought it through weeks in advance, because you 306 00:19:00,040 --> 00:19:04,000 Speaker 1: can't move those systems in an integrated way without a 307 00:19:04,040 --> 00:19:06,800 Speaker 1: lot of planning. We couldn't do it, and we're better 308 00:19:06,840 --> 00:19:09,480 Speaker 1: than they are. So here's the good news. By the way, 309 00:19:09,480 --> 00:19:12,960 Speaker 1: on nuclear speaking about moving equipment, we've seen no change 310 00:19:13,080 --> 00:19:16,840 Speaker 1: in the actual movement of Russian nuclear forces. That is, 311 00:19:16,840 --> 00:19:21,480 Speaker 1: they're not flushing their mobile ICBMs out of their garrisons, 312 00:19:21,520 --> 00:19:25,360 Speaker 1: they're not loading bombs on nuclear bombers. We haven't seen 313 00:19:25,440 --> 00:19:28,399 Speaker 1: any physical change. If there's a change at all, as 314 00:19:28,440 --> 00:19:31,160 Speaker 1: I say, it's just in the commanding control structure. And 315 00:19:31,200 --> 00:19:34,520 Speaker 1: I agree with you also about Biden's response, I understand 316 00:19:34,800 --> 00:19:38,159 Speaker 1: meaning at a press conference yesterday he was asked, mister President, 317 00:19:38,359 --> 00:19:40,480 Speaker 1: Americans be worried about nuclear war and on this way 318 00:19:40,480 --> 00:19:43,120 Speaker 1: out he just said no. And you understand why he's 319 00:19:43,160 --> 00:19:45,479 Speaker 1: doing that. He wants everybody to calm down. Doesn't want 320 00:19:45,520 --> 00:19:48,760 Speaker 1: anybody get unduly worrid, and I get that, but I'm 321 00:19:48,800 --> 00:19:53,119 Speaker 1: with you. We should be worried about this, not because 322 00:19:53,160 --> 00:19:57,360 Speaker 1: Putin would intentionally do it now, but because circumstances could 323 00:19:57,400 --> 00:19:59,960 Speaker 1: get out of control. But also remember, if you're put 324 00:20:01,240 --> 00:20:04,400 Speaker 1: and you're trying to signal US and the American President 325 00:20:04,520 --> 00:20:08,040 Speaker 1: cavalierly says no, then you think, gosh, what do I 326 00:20:08,080 --> 00:20:11,360 Speaker 1: have to do to get your attention? And that's when 327 00:20:11,400 --> 00:20:13,879 Speaker 1: this gets to be really dangerous. Right, So here's the 328 00:20:13,960 --> 00:20:16,879 Speaker 1: question I have for you. On the positive side, Biden 329 00:20:16,960 --> 00:20:20,120 Speaker 1: has not responded in kind, so there's been no nuclear 330 00:20:20,160 --> 00:20:22,320 Speaker 1: threats to back, there's been no ways to alert. So 331 00:20:22,440 --> 00:20:25,520 Speaker 1: that's all good. Stay calm, move on. And I don't 332 00:20:25,520 --> 00:20:27,800 Speaker 1: know how you feel, but he's done a remarkable job 333 00:20:27,840 --> 00:20:31,760 Speaker 1: of uniting the Western Alliance. The Western response to the 334 00:20:31,880 --> 00:20:35,040 Speaker 1: Ukraine War is stronger, NATO is more united than it's 335 00:20:35,040 --> 00:20:38,760 Speaker 1: ever been. But I'm worried if this is going to work, 336 00:20:38,840 --> 00:20:43,960 Speaker 1: because what you're seeing is the West engage and unprecedented 337 00:20:44,000 --> 00:20:48,960 Speaker 1: that word again, sanctions, diplomatic isolation all the way, from 338 00:20:49,119 --> 00:20:54,040 Speaker 1: banks to soccer, from yachts to planes to everything. These 339 00:20:54,040 --> 00:20:56,560 Speaker 1: guys are being squeezed, and it's possible we could bring 340 00:20:56,600 --> 00:20:59,000 Speaker 1: the Russian economy to the point of collapse, which is 341 00:20:59,000 --> 00:21:02,600 Speaker 1: an entirely new way of dealing with countries like this. 342 00:21:02,680 --> 00:21:08,400 Speaker 1: In other words, we're meeting Putin's military offensive with an economic, diplomatic, 343 00:21:08,880 --> 00:21:12,240 Speaker 1: and political counter offensive. And my right, are we seeing 344 00:21:12,280 --> 00:21:15,920 Speaker 1: something new? Is it possible that this could work? Trevino, 345 00:21:16,000 --> 00:21:20,439 Speaker 1: who writes under a subscription called armist Rather, wrote a 346 00:21:20,480 --> 00:21:25,080 Speaker 1: piece yesterday saying this is the cancel culture being carried 347 00:21:25,160 --> 00:21:29,639 Speaker 1: into international relations and arguing in part that among the 348 00:21:29,680 --> 00:21:36,040 Speaker 1: Western elites, Putin's conservatism and cultural values makes him a 349 00:21:36,160 --> 00:21:40,520 Speaker 1: very desirable target and solidifies this sense of you know, 350 00:21:40,600 --> 00:21:43,280 Speaker 1: he deserves it whatever he gets, because he's not just 351 00:21:43,359 --> 00:21:45,159 Speaker 1: a bad guy in the sense of being corrupt, but 352 00:21:45,200 --> 00:21:48,840 Speaker 1: he has the wrong social values. And the question is, 353 00:21:49,960 --> 00:21:54,359 Speaker 1: if this was Venezuela, you could imagine it potentially working. 354 00:21:55,560 --> 00:22:00,000 Speaker 1: If you're dealing with either any country that has nuclear weapons, 355 00:22:01,280 --> 00:22:04,879 Speaker 1: the danger of a cancel culture approaches, they do have 356 00:22:04,960 --> 00:22:27,400 Speaker 1: an option. They can decide to cancel you. A good 357 00:22:27,440 --> 00:22:29,720 Speaker 1: friend of mine, who's one of the smartest strategists I know, 358 00:22:30,520 --> 00:22:33,560 Speaker 1: literally called me this morning. He said we had better 359 00:22:33,600 --> 00:22:37,920 Speaker 1: start thinking about the off ramp, because if we think 360 00:22:37,920 --> 00:22:42,080 Speaker 1: we're going to crush Putin and not have a potential 361 00:22:42,160 --> 00:22:47,040 Speaker 1: nuclear reaction. This is like if you ask yourself in 362 00:22:47,160 --> 00:22:50,480 Speaker 1: late nineteen forty four, if Hitler had had nuclear weapons, 363 00:22:50,520 --> 00:22:53,320 Speaker 1: would he have used them? And the answer is obviously yeah, 364 00:22:53,440 --> 00:22:56,240 Speaker 1: it would never have occurred to him not to use them. Well, 365 00:22:56,440 --> 00:22:59,000 Speaker 1: if you're a Putin and you're isolated, and he was 366 00:22:59,119 --> 00:23:03,240 Speaker 1: humiliated at the Winter Olympics where they spent five billion 367 00:23:03,280 --> 00:23:07,639 Speaker 1: dollars and people like Obama wouldn't come, and I actually 368 00:23:07,640 --> 00:23:11,159 Speaker 1: think that there's a plausible case that CRIMEA was taken 369 00:23:11,200 --> 00:23:14,000 Speaker 1: in part in reaction to that that Putin said, Look, 370 00:23:14,040 --> 00:23:16,560 Speaker 1: if I can't join your club, I've got nothing to 371 00:23:16,600 --> 00:23:19,680 Speaker 1: gain by pretending i'm you, So I might as well 372 00:23:19,680 --> 00:23:20,960 Speaker 1: be a thug because you're not gonna let me in 373 00:23:21,000 --> 00:23:23,560 Speaker 1: the club anyway. Well, if he gets to a point 374 00:23:23,600 --> 00:23:26,879 Speaker 1: here where he decides as personal and that his personal 375 00:23:26,920 --> 00:23:31,400 Speaker 1: destruction and the legacy of his personal regime is at stake, 376 00:23:31,760 --> 00:23:34,359 Speaker 1: I don't think we have any notion what he could 377 00:23:34,359 --> 00:23:37,119 Speaker 1: potentially do. I'm with you on that we do not 378 00:23:37,400 --> 00:23:42,199 Speaker 1: want Putin turning to his generals and asking is Kiev 379 00:23:42,320 --> 00:23:45,600 Speaker 1: burning right. We don't want him to feel that if 380 00:23:45,600 --> 00:23:48,600 Speaker 1: he's going down, he's taken the whole thing with him. 381 00:23:49,040 --> 00:23:51,240 Speaker 1: And part of that, and I think your listeners should 382 00:23:51,280 --> 00:23:55,320 Speaker 1: understand this is that the existing strategies, the existence doctrines 383 00:23:55,320 --> 00:23:59,000 Speaker 1: about nuclear weapons sort of encourage this. They paved the 384 00:23:59,080 --> 00:24:01,800 Speaker 1: way for it. Both Russia and the United States in 385 00:24:01,840 --> 00:24:05,479 Speaker 1: recent years ten or more have developed these strategies of 386 00:24:05,520 --> 00:24:10,920 Speaker 1: integrated deterrence, and the idea was to strengthen deterrence by 387 00:24:11,000 --> 00:24:15,240 Speaker 1: integrating all our instruments of coercion, from economic to conventional, 388 00:24:15,280 --> 00:24:17,920 Speaker 1: to cyber to nuclear, so that you would deter or 389 00:24:17,960 --> 00:24:20,480 Speaker 1: foe at a lower level of conflict because they know 390 00:24:20,880 --> 00:24:23,840 Speaker 1: that you're willing to go all the way. And you 391 00:24:23,880 --> 00:24:25,919 Speaker 1: can see the logic of that. The problem is that 392 00:24:25,960 --> 00:24:28,760 Speaker 1: once you do enter into a conflict like we are 393 00:24:28,800 --> 00:24:33,159 Speaker 1: now in, well, then the firebreaks have been removed and 394 00:24:33,320 --> 00:24:36,199 Speaker 1: your strategy would indicate that if you were losing at 395 00:24:36,240 --> 00:24:39,240 Speaker 1: a lower level, you raise it to the higher level. 396 00:24:39,280 --> 00:24:43,159 Speaker 1: And if he's losing on the economic front, if the 397 00:24:43,280 --> 00:24:47,040 Speaker 1: Ukrainian forces continued to fight the way they're fighting, if 398 00:24:47,080 --> 00:24:49,879 Speaker 1: he tries to occupy and gets bogged down to bloody Well, 399 00:24:49,920 --> 00:24:53,679 Speaker 1: he might try to raise it to this nuclear level, 400 00:24:53,960 --> 00:24:57,800 Speaker 1: either signaling or actually trying to achieve a military victory, 401 00:24:57,920 --> 00:25:02,000 Speaker 1: or in a spasm of madnes and frustration, in a 402 00:25:02,119 --> 00:25:04,880 Speaker 1: Hitler like moment. It's terrifying. And if we get out 403 00:25:04,960 --> 00:25:09,720 Speaker 1: of this, we better start rethinking those strategies and start 404 00:25:09,800 --> 00:25:12,680 Speaker 1: thinking about how we can change them so this never 405 00:25:12,800 --> 00:25:15,560 Speaker 1: happens again. Well, you know, it's ironic at one level. 406 00:25:15,640 --> 00:25:19,160 Speaker 1: I was with Rumsfeld in May and June of two 407 00:25:19,200 --> 00:25:22,120 Speaker 1: thousand and one trying to think through how to get 408 00:25:22,119 --> 00:25:26,159 Speaker 1: across to the Indians and the pakistanis that this is 409 00:25:26,200 --> 00:25:29,000 Speaker 1: actually not an escalation ladder because it was a real 410 00:25:29,119 --> 00:25:31,960 Speaker 1: danger that they were going to exchange nuclear weapons. Yes, 411 00:25:32,000 --> 00:25:34,679 Speaker 1: that's right over Kashmir. Yeah, And we were trying to 412 00:25:34,680 --> 00:25:38,120 Speaker 1: think through, since they had not experienced it, and since 413 00:25:38,160 --> 00:25:40,399 Speaker 1: they didn't have the years of having thought about it 414 00:25:40,440 --> 00:25:43,280 Speaker 1: that we did, how do we get across. And this 415 00:25:43,359 --> 00:25:44,919 Speaker 1: is I think part of what you're saying, which if 416 00:25:44,960 --> 00:25:48,280 Speaker 1: I'm right, agree with totally. It's not an escalation ladder 417 00:25:48,359 --> 00:25:52,840 Speaker 1: because there's a chasm between everything you can do conventionally 418 00:25:53,680 --> 00:25:57,960 Speaker 1: and the first nuclear weapon, and when you cross that chasm, 419 00:25:58,880 --> 00:26:01,879 Speaker 1: you have opened up the potential for death on a 420 00:26:01,960 --> 00:26:07,879 Speaker 1: scale that is potentially civilization ending. And it's a great 421 00:26:08,160 --> 00:26:11,080 Speaker 1: irony that the only country ever to have used them 422 00:26:11,160 --> 00:26:15,320 Speaker 1: is the United States. I think it shocked us, and 423 00:26:15,359 --> 00:26:17,600 Speaker 1: I think as we learned what had happened in Nagasaki 424 00:26:17,640 --> 00:26:21,880 Speaker 1: and Hiroshima, and we learned how small those weapons were. Yes, 425 00:26:22,080 --> 00:26:26,960 Speaker 1: one bomb, one plane destroys one city, right, and now 426 00:26:27,000 --> 00:26:31,120 Speaker 1: we have much bigger weapons in much greater numbers. As 427 00:26:31,160 --> 00:26:35,320 Speaker 1: Truman said in nineteen forty nine when he was advised 428 00:26:35,320 --> 00:26:38,360 Speaker 1: that he had to build a hydrogen weapon, and Dean 429 00:26:38,440 --> 00:26:41,359 Speaker 1: Atchison went to him and said, if the world is 430 00:26:41,400 --> 00:26:44,479 Speaker 1: so dangerous that we are now going to build a 431 00:26:44,480 --> 00:26:48,800 Speaker 1: weapon whose only purpose is to destroy an entire city, 432 00:26:49,640 --> 00:26:51,800 Speaker 1: because you don't need a hydrogen weapon for anything else, 433 00:26:52,960 --> 00:26:55,919 Speaker 1: he said, shouldn't we design a strategy to minimize the 434 00:26:55,960 --> 00:26:58,919 Speaker 1: likelihood that we're going to ever use the weapon? And 435 00:26:59,080 --> 00:27:03,119 Speaker 1: that's where NSC sixty eight and the Cold War strategy starts, 436 00:27:03,119 --> 00:27:05,920 Speaker 1: because Truan says, yeah, well that would be cool. Why 437 00:27:05,920 --> 00:27:08,880 Speaker 1: don't you bring me a strategy so we can never 438 00:27:09,000 --> 00:27:11,440 Speaker 1: used the damn thing? Because I do have to authorize 439 00:27:11,480 --> 00:27:14,800 Speaker 1: building it. Since the Soviets had gotten so much faster 440 00:27:14,880 --> 00:27:17,640 Speaker 1: at building atomic bombs than we thought they would. So 441 00:27:17,720 --> 00:27:21,800 Speaker 1: now you're in a situation where you have enough nuclear weapons. 442 00:27:22,000 --> 00:27:24,119 Speaker 1: And the danger of this, of course is this is 443 00:27:24,160 --> 00:27:27,919 Speaker 1: what's convinces Iran and North Korea and all sorts of 444 00:27:27,960 --> 00:27:31,320 Speaker 1: other countries. If you have nuclear weapons, you're in a 445 00:27:31,400 --> 00:27:35,880 Speaker 1: different level of safety then if you don't. And some 446 00:27:35,920 --> 00:27:39,359 Speaker 1: people suggested that it was precisely when Kadafi gave up 447 00:27:39,400 --> 00:27:42,240 Speaker 1: his chemical weapons and his nuclear program and then was 448 00:27:42,280 --> 00:27:45,160 Speaker 1: overthrown that a number of other dictators looked and said, 449 00:27:45,200 --> 00:27:49,040 Speaker 1: uh huh, But if I don't have this capability, then 450 00:27:49,119 --> 00:27:52,480 Speaker 1: I can never be truly safe, and thus the impetus 451 00:27:52,520 --> 00:27:56,120 Speaker 1: both in Iran in North Korea. Right, I think it's 452 00:27:56,119 --> 00:27:59,800 Speaker 1: in US national security interest to get rid of these weapons, 453 00:28:00,080 --> 00:28:02,920 Speaker 1: or at least be marching in that direction to take 454 00:28:02,960 --> 00:28:06,280 Speaker 1: them out of national security strategies, because we don't need them, 455 00:28:06,400 --> 00:28:08,560 Speaker 1: you know, we need them to deter someone else from 456 00:28:08,600 --> 00:28:11,159 Speaker 1: attacking us. But our conventional weapons are the best in 457 00:28:11,200 --> 00:28:14,399 Speaker 1: the world. We can accomplish all our military emissions with 458 00:28:14,520 --> 00:28:18,159 Speaker 1: conventional weapons, and we want to prevent someone well like 459 00:28:18,400 --> 00:28:23,040 Speaker 1: Putin or another country from using a nuclear shield to 460 00:28:23,240 --> 00:28:27,280 Speaker 1: protect their aggressive invasions of other countries. Well, and of 461 00:28:27,320 --> 00:28:29,480 Speaker 1: course the danger is that the shield becomes a sword 462 00:28:29,760 --> 00:28:33,600 Speaker 1: exactly exactly, just looking at where we are right now, 463 00:28:33,760 --> 00:28:36,359 Speaker 1: I think there are two things I think there would 464 00:28:36,359 --> 00:28:40,360 Speaker 1: probably be helpful. One would be to communicate or desire 465 00:28:40,400 --> 00:28:44,080 Speaker 1: to find a way to end the violence, and to 466 00:28:44,160 --> 00:28:46,360 Speaker 1: do so on terms that would allow us to roll 467 00:28:46,400 --> 00:28:52,160 Speaker 1: back some of the isolation. Russia's isolation. Yeah, Russia's isolation, 468 00:28:52,520 --> 00:28:56,720 Speaker 1: because I think if he sees no endgame except an 469 00:28:56,760 --> 00:29:00,560 Speaker 1: absolute test of will, then in the end, at some 470 00:29:00,680 --> 00:29:03,600 Speaker 1: point he has got a lot of options that we 471 00:29:03,640 --> 00:29:07,320 Speaker 1: don't like. Yeah, I agree with you. Sanctions are an 472 00:29:07,560 --> 00:29:12,440 Speaker 1: incredibly powerful instrument, but they have never forced a country 473 00:29:12,520 --> 00:29:16,800 Speaker 1: to comply or collapse by themselves. There have always been 474 00:29:16,840 --> 00:29:20,840 Speaker 1: an instrument to achieve a negotiated settlement. And so that's 475 00:29:20,880 --> 00:29:23,200 Speaker 1: what you need here. As much as people might want 476 00:29:23,200 --> 00:29:27,840 Speaker 1: to crush Putin, kill Putin hope that a palace coup 477 00:29:27,960 --> 00:29:31,480 Speaker 1: will eliminate Putin, the odds are that none of that's 478 00:29:31,520 --> 00:29:33,360 Speaker 1: going to happen, and so we have to have a 479 00:29:33,400 --> 00:29:35,880 Speaker 1: diplomatic off ramp. We have to wait for him to 480 00:29:36,200 --> 00:29:39,520 Speaker 1: get out of this in some face saving way, feeling 481 00:29:39,560 --> 00:29:42,680 Speaker 1: that he can preserve his position and his power. So 482 00:29:42,720 --> 00:29:44,840 Speaker 1: it becomes all the more important to be coming up 483 00:29:44,880 --> 00:29:48,560 Speaker 1: with suggestions now for what that might be, for how 484 00:29:48,640 --> 00:29:51,520 Speaker 1: we might be able to address some of his legitimate 485 00:29:51,560 --> 00:29:55,720 Speaker 1: security concerns. And there are some and also ours to 486 00:29:56,480 --> 00:29:58,959 Speaker 1: in the course of this, reduce the nuclear danger by 487 00:29:59,080 --> 00:30:02,360 Speaker 1: for example, we might be willing to trade removing the 488 00:30:02,400 --> 00:30:05,120 Speaker 1: one hundred one hundred and fifty tactical nuclear weapons we 489 00:30:05,160 --> 00:30:09,000 Speaker 1: have in Europe if Putin then reduces his tactical nuclear 490 00:30:09,000 --> 00:30:12,720 Speaker 1: weapon stock pile. If Putin has raised going back into 491 00:30:13,200 --> 00:30:16,880 Speaker 1: the ban on intermediate nuclear forces, the Reagan Treaty that 492 00:30:17,080 --> 00:30:20,880 Speaker 1: President Trump left a few years ago, and bringing back 493 00:30:20,880 --> 00:30:23,080 Speaker 1: those kinds of restrictions, we could do that that would 494 00:30:23,080 --> 00:30:25,520 Speaker 1: be in our interests and his interest. We got to 495 00:30:25,520 --> 00:30:28,480 Speaker 1: be able to prepare to give him something that gives 496 00:30:28,520 --> 00:30:30,520 Speaker 1: him a face saving way to climb down from this 497 00:30:30,600 --> 00:30:34,560 Speaker 1: crisis before it spirals out of control. I think that's right. 498 00:30:34,600 --> 00:30:36,360 Speaker 1: You know, so many ones pointed out that one of 499 00:30:36,400 --> 00:30:39,320 Speaker 1: the characteristics of democracies is that once they finally get angry, 500 00:30:39,760 --> 00:30:45,080 Speaker 1: it's really hard to slow him down. That's right. Democracies 501 00:30:45,120 --> 00:30:48,840 Speaker 1: waging war can be brutal, that's right. And the thing 502 00:30:48,880 --> 00:30:52,200 Speaker 1: that makes us different than any crisis we've seen is 503 00:30:52,240 --> 00:30:56,520 Speaker 1: the possession of nuclear weapons, and I think somehow that 504 00:30:56,560 --> 00:31:00,520 Speaker 1: has to be brought more into the conversation in the 505 00:31:00,520 --> 00:31:04,440 Speaker 1: next few days, and an awareness that there are limits. 506 00:31:05,000 --> 00:31:07,760 Speaker 1: You know, we want to achieve a certain set of goals, 507 00:31:07,800 --> 00:31:10,920 Speaker 1: but those set of goals can't in the end involve 508 00:31:11,040 --> 00:31:15,520 Speaker 1: trying to destroy the Russian state or humiliate Putin to 509 00:31:15,560 --> 00:31:19,520 Speaker 1: a point where he has no rational alternative except to 510 00:31:19,520 --> 00:31:22,440 Speaker 1: create sort of god or Demaron and decide to take 511 00:31:22,520 --> 00:31:25,800 Speaker 1: us all with him. And I think that that's particularly 512 00:31:25,840 --> 00:31:29,800 Speaker 1: given the classic examples of Russian literature and in Russian history, 513 00:31:30,120 --> 00:31:34,120 Speaker 1: that's more possible than that people in nice, happy democracies 514 00:31:34,160 --> 00:31:38,080 Speaker 1: can believe. Right, And rather than speculating or guessing on 515 00:31:38,200 --> 00:31:40,920 Speaker 1: what he will do or what his intentions are, we 516 00:31:40,920 --> 00:31:43,160 Speaker 1: should be focusing a little more on what he can 517 00:31:43,240 --> 00:31:46,360 Speaker 1: do and what his capabilities are, and then how do 518 00:31:46,400 --> 00:31:48,600 Speaker 1: we make sure that doesn't happen. Let's say, if you 519 00:31:48,640 --> 00:31:50,560 Speaker 1: don't mind it a few weeks, I might ask you 520 00:31:50,600 --> 00:31:54,440 Speaker 1: to come back and rejoin us and discuss where we've 521 00:31:54,480 --> 00:31:57,240 Speaker 1: gotten to. By that point, and I hope that some 522 00:31:57,320 --> 00:31:59,320 Speaker 1: people in the White House will remember you're out there 523 00:31:59,320 --> 00:32:02,360 Speaker 1: and decide to talk with you at length. They're not 524 00:32:02,400 --> 00:32:04,320 Speaker 1: likely to call me, but I think they're very likely 525 00:32:04,360 --> 00:32:06,600 Speaker 1: to call you, And they really need to get a 526 00:32:06,640 --> 00:32:09,800 Speaker 1: group of people who've thought long and hard about nuclear 527 00:32:09,840 --> 00:32:13,000 Speaker 1: weapons and sit down and say, Okay, how do we 528 00:32:13,120 --> 00:32:15,240 Speaker 1: deal with the next two or three weeks? And it 529 00:32:15,320 --> 00:32:18,959 Speaker 1: maybe a one day at a time dance. That's exactly right, 530 00:32:19,040 --> 00:32:21,280 Speaker 1: and let me go further. I think they should call you. 531 00:32:21,480 --> 00:32:24,240 Speaker 1: I think we're at a moment where we're facing these 532 00:32:24,320 --> 00:32:28,280 Speaker 1: unprecedented threats that are threatening not just our nation, but 533 00:32:28,320 --> 00:32:30,480 Speaker 1: our way of life, our democracy. And this gets a 534 00:32:30,480 --> 00:32:33,800 Speaker 1: little overstated sometimes, but it's a moment where we really 535 00:32:33,840 --> 00:32:36,880 Speaker 1: do need unity across the political spectrum. And so I 536 00:32:36,920 --> 00:32:39,959 Speaker 1: thank you for having me on. We disagree on a lot, 537 00:32:39,960 --> 00:32:42,120 Speaker 1: but we agree on this, and we need to have 538 00:32:42,160 --> 00:32:46,240 Speaker 1: the broadest possible opposition to what Putin is trying to 539 00:32:46,240 --> 00:32:49,240 Speaker 1: do in the kind of world he's trying to create. Well, listen, 540 00:32:49,280 --> 00:32:51,920 Speaker 1: thank you for investing so much of your life in 541 00:32:52,160 --> 00:32:55,440 Speaker 1: understanding what promost People's a very arcane but I think 542 00:32:55,440 --> 00:32:59,320 Speaker 1: an extraordinarily central topic to the survival of our civilization, 543 00:33:00,000 --> 00:33:01,520 Speaker 1: and I do hope in a few weeks you'll come 544 00:33:01,560 --> 00:33:04,200 Speaker 1: back and we can hopefully continue this dialogue in a 545 00:33:04,200 --> 00:33:07,720 Speaker 1: happier way, with the world having become a marginally happier place. 546 00:33:08,040 --> 00:33:13,160 Speaker 1: It would be my pleasure. Thank you to my guest, 547 00:33:13,240 --> 00:33:16,640 Speaker 1: Joe SERINCIONI. You can learn more about Putin's nuclear threat 548 00:33:17,000 --> 00:33:20,480 Speaker 1: on our showpage at newtsworld dot com. Newts World is 549 00:33:20,480 --> 00:33:25,040 Speaker 1: produced by Gingwich three sixty and iHeartMedia. Our executive producer 550 00:33:25,120 --> 00:33:29,320 Speaker 1: is Garnsey Sloan, our producers Rebecca how and our researcher 551 00:33:29,440 --> 00:33:32,959 Speaker 1: is Rachel Peterson. The artwork for the show was created 552 00:33:33,000 --> 00:33:35,959 Speaker 1: by Steve Pendley. Special thanks to the team at Gingwich 553 00:33:36,000 --> 00:33:39,240 Speaker 1: three sixty. If you've been enjoying Newtsworld, I hope you'll 554 00:33:39,240 --> 00:33:42,040 Speaker 1: go to Apple Podcast and both rate us with five 555 00:33:42,080 --> 00:33:45,040 Speaker 1: stars and give us a review so others can learn 556 00:33:45,040 --> 00:33:48,320 Speaker 1: what it's all about. Right now, listeners of newts World 557 00:33:48,320 --> 00:33:51,720 Speaker 1: can sign up from my three free weekly columns at 558 00:33:51,720 --> 00:33:55,960 Speaker 1: Gingwich three sixty dot com slash newsletter. I'm Newt Gingrich. 559 00:33:56,360 --> 00:33:57,360 Speaker 1: This is news World