WEBVTT - Bloomberg Businessweek Weekend - January 13th, 2023 0:00:01.040 --> 0:00:05.440 This is Bloomberg Business Week inside from the reporters and 0:00:05.559 --> 0:00:09.200 editors who bring you America's most trusted business magazine, plus 0:00:09.240 --> 0:00:13.160 global business, finance and tech news as it happened. Bloomberg 0:00:13.240 --> 0:00:19.800 Business Week with Carol Messer and Tim Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio. Hi, everyone, 0:00:19.840 --> 0:00:22.440 welcome to the weekend edition of Bloomberg Business Week. This 0:00:22.480 --> 0:00:25.880 week it is the year Ahead issue, the major trends, disruptions, 0:00:25.920 --> 0:00:29.680 breakthrough products, innovations and movements to watch in the coming year. 0:00:30.040 --> 0:00:31.760 By the way, it's an opener if you will to 0:00:31.960 --> 0:00:35.400 this week's Bloomberg Live event happening in Davos, which is 0:00:35.479 --> 0:00:38.680 also occurring as the World Economic Forum hosts its annual 0:00:38.720 --> 0:00:41.040 meeting there, and of course we will have full coverage 0:00:41.040 --> 0:00:44.200 from Switzerland throughout the week on all of our Bloomberg platforms. 0:00:44.479 --> 0:00:47.360 We're not going there right now. I just couldn't squeeze 0:00:47.400 --> 0:00:49.000 it in this year. Okay, just making sure I haven't 0:00:49.000 --> 0:00:50.800 booked the play. I want to make sure. Ahead on 0:00:50.800 --> 0:00:53.080 this program, we're going to dive into Business Week's annual 0:00:53.120 --> 0:00:55.440 list of the fifty companies to watch over the next 0:00:55.440 --> 0:00:57.560 twelve months. Are we such a cool list? We're also 0:00:57.600 --> 0:00:59.280 going to break down a critical year for both the 0:00:59.280 --> 0:01:02.560 global travel and automobile industries as part of the magazines 0:01:02.600 --> 0:01:06.000 look at the consumer, you know me, you tim everybody 0:01:06.000 --> 0:01:09.679 out there, Well, then examine Silicon Valleys, changing business landscape 0:01:09.680 --> 0:01:13.160 when it comes to digital advertising and alongheld duopoly that 0:01:13.280 --> 0:01:15.920 is under a lot of pressure more than ever from 0:01:15.920 --> 0:01:18.360 tech rivals both big and small, but have become really 0:01:18.440 --> 0:01:21.600 valuable for advertisers. And not only are they valuable, but 0:01:21.640 --> 0:01:25.560 they're also accessible not only to the big advertisers UM, 0:01:25.560 --> 0:01:28.440 but also to small businesses, which were kind of the 0:01:28.480 --> 0:01:33.600 bread and butter of the meta and alphabets UM advertising business. 0:01:33.640 --> 0:01:36.479 So that first subset, I think is the big one. 0:01:36.560 --> 0:01:40.640 These e commerce UM retailers who are adding ads for 0:01:40.720 --> 0:01:43.600 businesses and really sniping some of that share which started 0:01:43.680 --> 0:01:46.600 during COVID when everyone was online, and now it seems 0:01:46.640 --> 0:01:49.560 like they're really going to push forward. In Blessed, we'll 0:01:49.600 --> 0:01:52.280 find out just how tough employers around the country are 0:01:52.360 --> 0:01:54.640 being on their workers when it comes to returning to 0:01:54.680 --> 0:01:59.080 the office. Look, we're here every day. Certainly increasingly we're 0:01:59.080 --> 0:02:02.640 starting to hear more more companies are requiring their at 0:02:02.680 --> 0:02:05.720 least employees to come in three to four days a week, like, hey, team, 0:02:05.800 --> 0:02:08.040 remember us, come on back in such a difference than 0:02:08.120 --> 0:02:10.400 before the pandemic. And then later in the program, we're 0:02:10.400 --> 0:02:12.200 gonna talk with the head of a cutting edge aviation 0:02:12.240 --> 0:02:15.560 company that sees fully autonomous flight as the future. How 0:02:15.600 --> 0:02:18.919 do you feel about that? Um, not there yet? Okay, 0:02:19.000 --> 0:02:21.280 me neither. All of that to come. We begin with 0:02:21.320 --> 0:02:25.400 Stephanie Flanders. She is Bloomberg News Senior executive editor for 0:02:25.440 --> 0:02:28.120 Economics and Government. She's in from London this week at 0:02:28.120 --> 0:02:31.160 our global headquarters in New York, and also found some 0:02:31.200 --> 0:02:33.600 time depend the cover story in the Year Ahead issue. 0:02:33.960 --> 0:02:36.480 It's an essay breaking down why we can all expect 0:02:36.520 --> 0:02:41.280 the global economy to be nothing short of a wild ride. Well, 0:02:41.320 --> 0:02:43.440 let's talk about the Year Ahead, because you write about 0:02:43.440 --> 0:02:46.280 these three pillars that kind of held together the global 0:02:46.320 --> 0:02:49.320 economy was helpful to have low rates, but it was 0:02:49.320 --> 0:02:54.400 also helpful to have a kind of a conflict free world, 0:02:54.800 --> 0:02:58.200 you know, notwithstanding some minor conflicts here and there. And 0:02:58.240 --> 0:03:00.760 then also, of course energy prices were kept low for 0:03:01.120 --> 0:03:04.960 quite a while. If we look back on those pillars 0:03:04.960 --> 0:03:07.040 are kind of crumbled, Yes, And that's what I was thinking. 0:03:07.040 --> 0:03:10.040 So what's useful about doing this exercise for for Business Week, 0:03:10.080 --> 0:03:12.360 and I have done it a few years now. Is 0:03:12.400 --> 0:03:15.639 you sort of obviously you're quite caught up in especially 0:03:15.680 --> 0:03:17.280 these days, on exactly what's going to happen to the 0:03:17.360 --> 0:03:20.160 economy this year? And are we going to get heads 0:03:20.160 --> 0:03:24.080 around inflation? Is the FED going to stop tightening? But 0:03:24.160 --> 0:03:26.280 you also want to step back and think, Okay, what 0:03:26.600 --> 0:03:29.120 how is the world fundamentally changed? And I think this 0:03:29.240 --> 0:03:31.520 was one of those years where I thought, Wow, we 0:03:31.560 --> 0:03:36.520 really have had these fundamental assumptions underpinning maybe thirty forty 0:03:36.600 --> 0:03:39.840 years of global economic history, certainly my lifetime of thinking 0:03:39.880 --> 0:03:44.040 about economics and thinking about the world, all having kind 0:03:44.040 --> 0:03:46.600 of been kicked away over the last couple of years. 0:03:46.680 --> 0:03:50.360 It's not just cheap energy prices, it's not just cheap 0:03:50.440 --> 0:03:53.720 labor costs and transportation costs, and as you said, the 0:03:53.800 --> 0:03:57.800 sort of friction free period for geopolitics at least when 0:03:57.800 --> 0:03:59.800 it came to you know, am I going to find 0:03:59.800 --> 0:04:02.880 it fairly easy to set up a complicated supply chain 0:04:02.920 --> 0:04:06.720 in Asia or China? And all of that has gone away? 0:04:07.120 --> 0:04:09.600 And then on top of all that, you know, you 0:04:09.720 --> 0:04:11.720 kind of every time any one of those pillars was 0:04:11.760 --> 0:04:15.520 sort of shaky. You always had the FED put right, 0:04:15.520 --> 0:04:19.440 You always had the FED there um super easy money, 0:04:19.520 --> 0:04:22.159 kind of free money to make everything still make the 0:04:22.200 --> 0:04:26.159 numbers still add up. And when you start looking ahead 0:04:26.160 --> 0:04:28.599 and thinking, okay, if if, if those have gone in 0:04:28.680 --> 0:04:33.160 quite a lasting way, decoupling whatever you want to call it, 0:04:33.600 --> 0:04:36.279 as well as potentially kind of higher interest rates sticking 0:04:36.279 --> 0:04:38.880 around for a while, you know that that could mean 0:04:38.920 --> 0:04:41.679 something quite fundamental, not just for economic growth, but also 0:04:41.760 --> 0:04:44.120 for global politics. You know, we talk about pivots, and 0:04:44.120 --> 0:04:46.040 I do think about Stephanie. Is it just a case 0:04:46.080 --> 0:04:48.599 of a reset, certainly here in the United States, but elsewhere, 0:04:48.600 --> 0:04:52.080 this whole idea of cheap money no more? Yeah, And 0:04:52.120 --> 0:04:55.000 I think, I mean, as you know, I'm normally in London, 0:04:55.040 --> 0:04:58.840 and that the sheer pace of change there has been extraordinary. 0:04:58.839 --> 0:05:01.320 I mean, people, you know, the different between getting a 0:05:01.360 --> 0:05:05.640 mortgage in July and getting it in September, partly thanks 0:05:05.640 --> 0:05:07.479 to the sort of craziness we had in Parliament, but 0:05:07.480 --> 0:05:10.839 actually not just that you had rates double or treble. 0:05:11.000 --> 0:05:12.760 In many cases, people are going to be going up 0:05:12.760 --> 0:05:16.000 in the next few months, renegotiating their mortgages and going 0:05:16.040 --> 0:05:18.560 from a one percent rate to six and they're going 0:05:18.600 --> 0:05:21.719 to fail their affordability tests and you know, so, yeah, 0:05:21.720 --> 0:05:23.880 we don't know how that's going to play out. Well, 0:05:23.880 --> 0:05:25.640 how do you think about this? Like this whole idea 0:05:25.640 --> 0:05:27.120 of the Fed still thinks they're going to get down 0:05:27.120 --> 0:05:29.039 to two percent right in terms of inflation, and that 0:05:29.040 --> 0:05:31.679 that's their target. There are many people say, no, way, 0:05:31.720 --> 0:05:35.360 things have changed dramatically. How do you think about that globally? 0:05:35.480 --> 0:05:38.080 Like has something is a different this time around? Is 0:05:38.120 --> 0:05:40.200 there kind of a new rate because of some global 0:05:40.240 --> 0:05:43.880 macro forces that have changed forever? Yeah? I think so. There's, 0:05:44.040 --> 0:05:46.280 as you know, a big debate about this, and there 0:05:46.320 --> 0:05:48.680 are plenty of economists on both sides as always, so 0:05:48.760 --> 0:05:50.839 we can keep up the keep up the debate. But 0:05:50.920 --> 0:05:54.240 I think, um, it's gonna I think this year it's 0:05:54.279 --> 0:05:56.159 going to depend quite a lot on China. So you 0:05:56.240 --> 0:06:00.960 have the very rapid reopening actually may be unhelpful to 0:06:01.040 --> 0:06:02.960 the j pals of this world, because, as you know, 0:06:03.040 --> 0:06:05.160 we could then see maybe an extra one percentage point, 0:06:05.160 --> 0:06:08.000 maybe an extra two percentage points on global inflation just 0:06:08.080 --> 0:06:12.160 because of faster China growth and higher energy prices from that. 0:06:12.560 --> 0:06:15.120 But looking further ahead. Has there been a more fundamental 0:06:15.160 --> 0:06:20.440 shift between the relationship between unemployment and wages. You know, 0:06:20.480 --> 0:06:23.040 we've had all these years where you had super low unemployment, 0:06:23.080 --> 0:06:25.560 you know, very tight labor market, but wages didn't budge. 0:06:26.160 --> 0:06:29.520 Now you know, the dam is kind of broken, and 0:06:30.240 --> 0:06:33.440 you have got these much bigger wage rises coming down 0:06:33.480 --> 0:06:35.880 the track in many countries. If they get locked in, 0:06:36.360 --> 0:06:38.159 then you're right, you know, we're in a we're in 0:06:38.160 --> 0:06:40.800 a different world. You right, at the end of the 0:06:40.800 --> 0:06:45.039 piece that the microeconomic trend for three is going to 0:06:45.160 --> 0:06:48.400 be near shoring the idea of untangling some of these 0:06:48.440 --> 0:06:52.120 supply chains that companies have spent a generation building as 0:06:52.120 --> 0:06:55.160 they've gotten concerned about, Okay, maybe COVID zero in China 0:06:55.360 --> 0:06:59.720 or trade relationships with countries including China. Um, how do 0:06:59.760 --> 0:07:01.279 you think that's going to continue to play out? Because 0:07:01.320 --> 0:07:06.640 at the same time, it does seem like labor is 0:07:06.680 --> 0:07:08.440 so you know, you don't want to you don't want 0:07:08.440 --> 0:07:10.920 to unravel too much in a company like Apple, for example, 0:07:11.040 --> 0:07:13.960 is so inextricably bound to a to a country like 0:07:14.040 --> 0:07:16.520 Chinel And I actually think that's one of the fundamental tensions, 0:07:16.600 --> 0:07:18.280 and that's actually it's why I've I've set up a 0:07:18.280 --> 0:07:21.240 whole squad. Now I've got control of the economics and government. 0:07:21.280 --> 0:07:25.160 Here at Bloomberg, We've got a geoeconomic squad precisely because 0:07:25.200 --> 0:07:27.679 the economics and the politics is really kind of coming 0:07:27.720 --> 0:07:30.440 into inter tention at the moment. I don't think any 0:07:30.480 --> 0:07:33.800 of these big companies wanted niche near shore, particularly, it 0:07:33.800 --> 0:07:35.840 wouldn't be their first choice. They certainly it wouldn't be 0:07:35.880 --> 0:07:38.680 their choice to come out of China, and they're resisting 0:07:38.680 --> 0:07:40.840 that in many areas. But they're also looking at the 0:07:40.920 --> 0:07:44.200 riding on the wall. But as the geopolitical trends that 0:07:44.680 --> 0:07:46.800 we talked about from the last thirty years have gone 0:07:46.800 --> 0:07:48.880 into reverse, you know, the politicians in a sense and 0:07:48.960 --> 0:07:52.120 no longer on the side of closer and closer integration 0:07:52.120 --> 0:07:55.040 and globalization. So I think businesses for the first time 0:07:55.040 --> 0:07:58.600 in a long time, have to reckon with you know, 0:07:58.680 --> 0:08:01.200 if you like the kind of a current of history 0:08:01.280 --> 0:08:04.560 running against them. You know, whereas previously, you know, in 0:08:04.680 --> 0:08:08.080 most places people wanted to make things easier for global business, 0:08:08.120 --> 0:08:10.560 that's not the case. Now you've got President Biden, You've 0:08:10.600 --> 0:08:14.320 got politicians all around the world actively making their lives harder. 0:08:15.240 --> 0:08:20.680 Um it feels kind of glum if you're not alone. 0:08:20.880 --> 0:08:24.000 Even the good news in China is exactly like and 0:08:24.040 --> 0:08:25.800 there's a lot of individuals. So maybe it's not so 0:08:25.880 --> 0:08:27.560 great in the first half better in the second half. 0:08:27.560 --> 0:08:29.280 But I think there's a lot of debate over that too. 0:08:29.640 --> 0:08:32.719 Could things actually come in better? Could the US fear 0:08:32.800 --> 0:08:34.880 better too than the rest of the world. Are are 0:08:34.920 --> 0:08:36.640 a lot of the world. Yeah, and actually I even 0:08:36.679 --> 0:08:39.959 say that there. I think there's a scenario which says, um, 0:08:40.320 --> 0:08:43.600 the US dodges recession or has a very shallow recession. 0:08:43.679 --> 0:08:46.000 Even in the Eurozone it's looking like I don't think 0:08:46.000 --> 0:08:48.960 my optimism extends to the UK at last, but in 0:08:49.000 --> 0:08:50.559 the Eurozone it's looking like it's going to be a 0:08:50.640 --> 0:08:52.520 very shallow recession, and quite a lot of the country's 0:08:52.520 --> 0:08:55.840 may even dodge a formal recession. If we get to 0:08:55.880 --> 0:08:58.280 the end of the year and central banks have also 0:08:58.440 --> 0:09:01.480 kind of have basically got control of inflation, and that 0:09:01.520 --> 0:09:04.320 we are within sight of two, then as I say, 0:09:04.400 --> 0:09:06.200 at the end of the piece, everything does become a 0:09:06.240 --> 0:09:09.080 bit easier. You know, we may still have these structural trends, 0:09:09.120 --> 0:09:11.920 these question marks, but it's on a slower burn and 0:09:11.960 --> 0:09:15.080 you're not talking about these relationships, just kind of going 0:09:15.160 --> 0:09:17.319 up in smoke. Definitely. Does it feel since you've said, 0:09:17.320 --> 0:09:19.080 you've done this a couple of times for Business Week, 0:09:19.160 --> 0:09:21.760 kind of setting what the economic outlook is for the year, 0:09:21.840 --> 0:09:23.720 does it how does it feel different from last year? 0:09:23.720 --> 0:09:26.400 Do you remember, like does it feel more certain or 0:09:26.559 --> 0:09:29.680 still uncertain? But different debates. I think the fundamental sort 0:09:29.679 --> 0:09:32.280 of narratives are actually clearer, and actually going back to 0:09:32.320 --> 0:09:35.240 that point of geoeconomics, I sort of feel like I 0:09:35.320 --> 0:09:38.200 know what the story is or what the different elements 0:09:38.200 --> 0:09:40.160 of the story are going forward, But of course I 0:09:40.240 --> 0:09:41.880 never know what's going to happen, and that's what makes 0:09:41.920 --> 0:09:44.520 life so interesting. Okay, thirty seconds just to enter on 0:09:44.559 --> 0:09:46.959 Russia's invasion of Ukraine. I think it's been a monster 0:09:47.000 --> 0:09:51.840 a full year. At the end of February and thirty 0:09:51.840 --> 0:09:54.360 seconds again, Stephanie, I mean, how does this How does 0:09:54.360 --> 0:09:56.760 this play out in Europe? I would say one positive. 0:09:56.800 --> 0:09:59.160 I mean, of course it's a massively negative event for 0:09:59.200 --> 0:10:01.680 the continent to have a war on its on its shores. 0:10:02.120 --> 0:10:04.200 But the way that Europe has hung together, not just 0:10:04.240 --> 0:10:06.880 the governments but the people, I think is a source 0:10:07.000 --> 0:10:10.960 of inspiration and potential optimism. We'll just we'll see how 0:10:10.960 --> 0:10:13.360 whether they managed to carry that forward. That was Bloomberg 0:10:13.360 --> 0:10:16.640 News Senior Executive Editor for Economics and Government, Stephanie Flanders 0:10:16.679 --> 0:10:20.160 on the cover story for three Year Ahead issue coming up, 0:10:20.200 --> 0:10:22.960 from eBay to Porsche, the select group of global stocks 0:10:23.000 --> 0:10:25.480 to keep an eye on this year, for better or 0:10:25.520 --> 0:10:29.160 for worse. The fifty is the real deal. And what 0:10:29.160 --> 0:10:32.640 what basically um the team of of analyst at Bloomberg 0:10:32.640 --> 0:10:35.880 Intelligence does is take that two thousand plus companies and 0:10:35.920 --> 0:10:38.520 push it through Excel sheets and it spits out a 0:10:38.559 --> 0:10:41.199 couple of dozen companies that we really want to kind 0:10:41.240 --> 0:10:44.640 of talk about. It's a great little mix of companies 0:10:44.679 --> 0:10:47.600 that we just think are going to have interesting years. 0:10:48.240 --> 0:10:50.880 More from the Year Ahead issue. You're listening to Bloomberg 0:10:50.920 --> 0:11:03.120 Business Week. This is Bloomberg. Please sees Bloomberg Business Week 0:11:03.400 --> 0:11:09.360 with Carol Messer and Tim Stinebec from Bloomberg Radio. The 0:11:09.440 --> 0:11:12.080 latest issue of Bloomberg Business Week magazine. It is out now, 0:11:12.200 --> 0:11:15.520 It's online on newsstands, of course, always on the Bloomberg terminal. 0:11:15.880 --> 0:11:18.720 It's the annual Erahead issue. Right now, though we're going 0:11:18.760 --> 0:11:21.319 to talk about one of the favorite features of this 0:11:21.400 --> 0:11:24.600 issue the fifty Companies to Watch. The team at Bloomberg 0:11:24.640 --> 0:11:28.120 Intelligence tracks some two thousand companies and sectors, ranging from 0:11:28.160 --> 0:11:31.480 communications and commodities to finance and food. B I has 0:11:31.520 --> 0:11:34.400 identified a select group of fifty that weren't a closer 0:11:34.440 --> 0:11:36.960 look this year based on a list of focus ideas, 0:11:37.000 --> 0:11:40.600 which combine contrarian views and upcoming catalyst for change. You 0:11:40.600 --> 0:11:43.040 know to what our analysts do is they consider factors 0:11:43.040 --> 0:11:47.000 such as growth prospects, resilience in an inflationary environment, changes 0:11:47.040 --> 0:11:49.679 in the C suite, and plans for new products and services. 0:11:50.080 --> 0:11:53.160 The team also weighs in on external conditions such as 0:11:53.200 --> 0:11:56.320 Russia's war in Ukraine, challenges in the tech supply chain, 0:11:56.400 --> 0:11:59.880 and the continuing effects of the COVID nineteen pandemic. Bloomberg 0:11:59.840 --> 0:12:02.760 te Levision in radio markets. Correspondent Creedy Goopda and I 0:12:02.800 --> 0:12:05.400 caught up with a Business Week Solutions and Strategy Senior 0:12:05.480 --> 0:12:08.160 editor Rebecca Penty, as well as the editor of the magazine, 0:12:08.200 --> 0:12:10.840 Joel Webber to break down the list and also to 0:12:10.880 --> 0:12:14.240 better understand exactly how Bloomberg Intelligence narrows this field. Carol, 0:12:14.440 --> 0:12:16.680 it's a feat what they do on in a given day. 0:12:16.840 --> 0:12:19.480 And one of the things that we've long done with 0:12:19.520 --> 0:12:23.800 them is this project which culminates, Uh it's it's actually 0:12:23.840 --> 0:12:26.640 like months in the making and then culminates with the 0:12:26.679 --> 0:12:29.880 publication of the list. We've also gone on and done 0:12:30.000 --> 0:12:33.360 quarterly installments, um that we now do. So this is 0:12:34.080 --> 0:12:35.920 fifty companies to watch for the year. But you'll hear 0:12:36.000 --> 0:12:38.720 us come back and ahead of every quarter will tell 0:12:38.760 --> 0:12:44.880 you companies to watch this quarter. Um. But the fifty 0:12:45.080 --> 0:12:48.560 is the real deal. And what what basically, um, the 0:12:48.600 --> 0:12:52.360 team of of analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence Intelligence does is 0:12:52.400 --> 0:12:55.160 take that two thousand plus companies and push it through 0:12:55.240 --> 0:12:59.079 Excel sheets and it spits out, uh, just a couple 0:12:59.080 --> 0:13:01.480 of dozen company is that we really want to kind 0:13:01.480 --> 0:13:04.160 of talk about. And we can't tell you these are 0:13:04.200 --> 0:13:07.320 bys and cells that we're not gonna do anything, um 0:13:07.400 --> 0:13:11.480 that foolish with that much conviction. But we can look 0:13:11.480 --> 0:13:13.920 at hindsight as the measure of that. Yeah, exactly, that's 0:13:13.920 --> 0:13:16.839 what hindsights for right. Um. We we look we call 0:13:16.920 --> 0:13:20.160 this watch because some of them we expect will i'll 0:13:20.200 --> 0:13:23.800 perform and others might lack. And so it's a great 0:13:23.840 --> 0:13:26.760 little mix of companies that we just think are going 0:13:26.840 --> 0:13:31.120 to have interesting years. Um. Rebecca was one of the 0:13:31.200 --> 0:13:33.640 Business Week editors who worked closely with b I to 0:13:33.760 --> 0:13:36.400 come up with that list and refine it and turn 0:13:36.440 --> 0:13:39.680 it into the magic that it is. Rebecca, I'm curious, 0:13:39.760 --> 0:13:42.920 what was the company that m was your was the 0:13:42.960 --> 0:13:45.720 one that you liked the most on the list? Well? 0:13:45.760 --> 0:13:49.400 I think Disney and Um, it was interesting. You know, 0:13:49.520 --> 0:13:52.800 b I has these focus ideas and they you know, 0:13:53.360 --> 0:13:57.280 basically they're they're high conviction ideas of companies where they 0:13:57.280 --> 0:14:00.240 think the market is not recognizing something about the me 0:14:00.400 --> 0:14:03.880 and so either the markets under valuing overvaluing, and Disney 0:14:03.960 --> 0:14:06.120 was one of them that was really beat up during 0:14:06.120 --> 0:14:09.640 the pandemic and you know, continues to be beat up 0:14:10.320 --> 0:14:14.360 once recession risks started looming because of all their theme parks. 0:14:14.760 --> 0:14:16.480 And the thing that was so interesting for me is 0:14:16.520 --> 0:14:20.200 that b I had this conviction that, you know, Disney 0:14:20.440 --> 0:14:24.720 is really poised for a rebound um due to restructuring 0:14:25.120 --> 0:14:29.640 and accelerating stream strategy. And we'd already landed on Disney 0:14:29.640 --> 0:14:32.680 as a company, and then the announcement of Bob Biker's 0:14:32.680 --> 0:14:37.080 return as CEO and and so that just reinforced the 0:14:37.200 --> 0:14:40.080 view from b I that this is the company to watch, 0:14:40.120 --> 0:14:42.520 and I think you know, the bi's view that it 0:14:42.520 --> 0:14:44.960 could be a tale of two halves for for Disney, 0:14:45.000 --> 0:14:48.040 where you know the second half is the stronger of 0:14:48.080 --> 0:14:50.320 the two. Okay, Well, if you're gonna talk about Disney, 0:14:50.320 --> 0:14:53.360 we should talk about Netflix. Um because Netflix also on 0:14:53.400 --> 0:14:56.520 the list. Why why did Netflix make it H In 0:14:56.560 --> 0:15:01.160 that same conversation, since obviously it's been the dominant streaming 0:15:01.240 --> 0:15:04.880 video provider. Yeah, that's true. And I think this is 0:15:04.880 --> 0:15:08.360 an interesting one where um B I zeroing in on 0:15:08.960 --> 0:15:13.440 Netflix is adds supported pricings. Here. For the longest time, 0:15:13.480 --> 0:15:18.080 it's been a company that's dependent on UM subscriptions but 0:15:18.200 --> 0:15:23.320 not advertising, and so ba's view is that the market 0:15:23.360 --> 0:15:27.760 isn't fully recognizing the additional revenue and sales growth that 0:15:27.800 --> 0:15:31.160 could come from that advertising, which which they see as 0:15:31.240 --> 0:15:35.880 supporting higher average revenue per user and offsetting cantaly ization 0:15:35.920 --> 0:15:40.400 of subscription revenue from customers downgrading to cheaper plans. Okay, 0:15:40.400 --> 0:15:43.680 so worth mentioning that to US companies, perhaps you've heard 0:15:43.680 --> 0:15:49.040 of them? Right. The other thing I love about this project, though, Rebecca, 0:15:49.360 --> 0:15:52.320 is how global it is. Right. So, in addition, to 0:15:52.400 --> 0:15:56.800 some marquee American names, tell us about ones that people 0:15:56.800 --> 0:16:00.080 outside of the US might not even heard of. Yeah, 0:16:00.120 --> 0:16:02.240 this one was an interesting one for me. I think, 0:16:02.480 --> 0:16:04.680 you know, we often hear about China being, you know, 0:16:04.720 --> 0:16:08.560 the world's manufacturing center, but we don't often know the 0:16:08.640 --> 0:16:11.200 names of the companies that make the stuff that we use. 0:16:11.720 --> 0:16:14.600 And one of the ones featured here is t s 0:16:14.760 --> 0:16:19.320 m C. It is the world's largest semiconductor foundry. And 0:16:19.880 --> 0:16:23.320 you know, with with the recession looming with with um, 0:16:23.960 --> 0:16:27.800 the economy taking a beating, worldwide chip making is slowing down. 0:16:28.200 --> 0:16:31.600 But Bluever Intelligence view is that t s MC is 0:16:31.680 --> 0:16:35.800 placed to better weather the cyclical market downturn than it's 0:16:35.880 --> 0:16:39.200 piers because of its dominant industry position. Yeah, I mean 0:16:39.280 --> 0:16:43.560 it is a juggernaut, right yeah, joel Um, what about 0:16:43.600 --> 0:16:46.120 your favorite on this list? Okay, well, I'll stick with 0:16:46.920 --> 0:16:51.280 tech Um and I'm gonna I'm gonna say sons Um, 0:16:51.280 --> 0:16:55.000 the little speaker company that could. Yeah, it's truly, as 0:16:55.200 --> 0:16:57.240 we say in the blurb, it is a David versus 0:16:57.280 --> 0:17:00.920 Goliath moment. There's a patent case. It's been wrestling with 0:17:00.960 --> 0:17:04.480 Google for a really long time. As we write, b 0:17:04.560 --> 0:17:07.960 I is optimistic. Optimistic SONS will succeed in the dispute, 0:17:07.960 --> 0:17:11.280 which goes to a jury trial in May. Uh. This 0:17:11.320 --> 0:17:14.960 has been a long time coming. Uh, this showdown has 0:17:15.000 --> 0:17:19.120 been it's years in the making. UM. Sos UH has 0:17:19.280 --> 0:17:21.920 has has had its share of some challenges. If your 0:17:21.920 --> 0:17:24.680 son NOS user like I am, there's some software decisions 0:17:24.680 --> 0:17:26.760 that will make you pull your hair out, like that 0:17:26.840 --> 0:17:30.840 app which app because there's multiple apps actually in order 0:17:30.880 --> 0:17:33.119 to use different devices that don't talk to each other always. 0:17:33.960 --> 0:17:35.840 You know, is there more to talk about here? Yes? 0:17:35.880 --> 0:17:38.920 There is. But so I like this s NOS one, UM, 0:17:38.960 --> 0:17:42.400 but you know that's another American company. We've done tech 0:17:42.440 --> 0:17:46.600 a little bit now, Rebecca, what's another international company that 0:17:46.720 --> 0:17:50.800 that jumped out to you? Okay, I'm just looking down 0:17:50.800 --> 0:17:56.840 the list, which was Porch. Let's talk about Porsche exactly, 0:17:57.119 --> 0:17:59.680 which I thought. So this company went public this year 0:18:00.119 --> 0:18:03.080 w span out, which is just also just an incredible 0:18:03.119 --> 0:18:05.000 I p O. But now they actually have to, like, 0:18:05.280 --> 0:18:09.000 you know, make some evs and autos I think are 0:18:09.720 --> 0:18:13.040 just a really interesting kind of your head story. We're 0:18:13.080 --> 0:18:16.200 seeing obviously the pressure on Tesla and we're going to 0:18:16.280 --> 0:18:20.040 have more automakers sort of show up and an attempt 0:18:20.040 --> 0:18:23.399 to hit velocity like Tesla's proven. Um what what what 0:18:23.520 --> 0:18:26.199 a successful company can look like? And now they have 0:18:26.240 --> 0:18:28.399 to like wade through some challenges. If I could just 0:18:28.440 --> 0:18:30.760 throw one quick one back in there. You talked a 0:18:30.800 --> 0:18:33.679 lot about companies that are poised to do well on 0:18:33.760 --> 0:18:36.520 the e V game. One of them that is maybe 0:18:36.560 --> 0:18:41.119 poised to fair worse off is Aliston Transmission. UM another 0:18:41.320 --> 0:18:45.320 US company. Uh, it's a truck transmission supplier. And what 0:18:45.359 --> 0:18:47.520 you may have heard about EVS is that you know, 0:18:47.880 --> 0:18:51.399 it's not just regular cars, it's also trucks. So there's 0:18:51.520 --> 0:18:53.920 heightened competition in that truck space, which is going to 0:18:54.000 --> 0:18:57.320 be at some pressure to Alison Transmission. That was Bloomberg 0:18:57.320 --> 0:19:00.439 Business Week Solutions and Strategy Senior editor Rebecca pent and 0:19:00.520 --> 0:19:03.320 once again the editor of the magazine, Joe Weber. Bloomberg 0:19:03.320 --> 0:19:05.640 TV and Radio is Crety Gupta with us there as well. 0:19:06.000 --> 0:19:08.760 And we should note that Rebecca mentioned Walt Disney at 0:19:08.840 --> 0:19:11.840 the top of our conversation. You know, already this past 0:19:11.880 --> 0:19:14.080 week we saw the company prepping for a challenge from 0:19:14.119 --> 0:19:18.440 activist investor Nelson Pelts and also naming Mark Parker as 0:19:18.440 --> 0:19:22.240 its new chairman. Still ahead on Bloomberg Business Week, from 0:19:22.240 --> 0:19:25.719 the consumer facing firms to Silicon Valleys elite. Many iconic 0:19:25.760 --> 0:19:29.280 American companies are facing headwinds in the year ahead. Twenty 0:19:29.320 --> 0:19:32.560 three is going to be defined more about how consumers 0:19:32.600 --> 0:19:35.720 sort of, you know, what's the new normal for consumers. 0:19:35.920 --> 0:19:38.240 In other words, you know, lots of things changed. You 0:19:38.400 --> 0:19:40.880 obviously returned to work, you know it's been an issue, 0:19:41.200 --> 0:19:43.760 but also how people want to shop, how people want 0:19:43.800 --> 0:19:46.879 to consume. You know, what people are willing to spend on, 0:19:47.080 --> 0:19:49.719 and the way the consumer behaves is a lot different 0:19:49.720 --> 0:19:52.560 than than and so we want to capture that, and 0:19:52.600 --> 0:19:54.479 so we tried to sort of take a look at 0:19:54.520 --> 0:20:05.600 a number of areas. This is Bloomberg Broadcasting from the 0:20:05.640 --> 0:20:09.119 financial capital of the World, Bloomberg he Love in Frio 0:20:09.200 --> 0:20:13.160 in New York, to Washington, d C. Bloomberg to Boston, 0:20:13.240 --> 0:20:16.640 Bloomberg one oh six one to San Francisco, Bloomberg nine 0:20:16.760 --> 0:20:19.919 six to the country Sirius XM Chado one nine team, 0:20:19.920 --> 0:20:23.440 and around the globe the Bloomberg Business and Bloomberg Radio 0:20:23.560 --> 0:20:27.800 dot Com. This is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Messer 0:20:28.160 --> 0:20:33.920 and Tim Stanovac from Bloomberg Radio our coverage of the 0:20:33.960 --> 0:20:36.720 yearhead issue continues with a look at companies in the 0:20:36.760 --> 0:20:40.480 consumer space. The magazine taps into starbucks, unhappy New Year, 0:20:40.760 --> 0:20:43.320 the return of the jumbo jet, and the abrupt cratering 0:20:43.440 --> 0:20:45.800 of the used car market. With a round up, we 0:20:45.840 --> 0:20:49.159 turned to Bloomberg Business Week Assistant Managing editor Jim Ellis. 0:20:49.480 --> 0:20:53.080 While the pandemic sort of defined last year, how our 0:20:53.160 --> 0:20:56.080 sort of come back from the pandemic, this year um 0:20:57.320 --> 0:21:00.159 is going to be defined more about how consumed or 0:21:00.240 --> 0:21:03.400 is sort of you know, what's the new normal for consumers? 0:21:03.600 --> 0:21:05.919 In other words, you know, lots of things changed. You 0:21:06.080 --> 0:21:08.560 obviously returned to work, you know, it's been an issue, 0:21:08.880 --> 0:21:11.440 but also how people want to shop, how people want 0:21:11.480 --> 0:21:14.560 to consume, you know, what people are willing to spend on, 0:21:14.760 --> 0:21:17.399 and the way the consumer behaves is a lot different 0:21:17.400 --> 0:21:20.240 than than and so we want to capture that. And 0:21:20.280 --> 0:21:22.199 so we tried to sort of take a look at 0:21:22.200 --> 0:21:24.680